Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -220 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think that Robbie Ray (8-6, 3.92 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot, with the “toothless” Orioles countering with the erratic Aaron Brooks (2-3, 4.69). Ray enters on top form, having won three straight, conceding a combined six runs over 19 innings of work (eight walks and 23 K’s in that span.) Brooks has been used primarily as an “opener” and I think he’ll be on a “short leash” in this difficult National League format/venue tonight as well. Key Trends: - The Orioles are a poor 13-25 this year as a road dog of +150 or higher. - The D-Backs are 11-4 (+8.2 units) in interleague games this year. The verdict: Ray is reportedly on the trading block, so look for the veteran to keep his focus on the field of play tonight; lay the price! |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 11 | 6-8 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Yankees/Twins. It’s a battle of division leaders in Minnesota on Monday night and while both teams are known for their offensive prowess, I believe that the starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. New York sees CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.06 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Martin Perez (8-3, 4.10). Sabathia is 20-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 39 career starts vs. the Twins. Perez has had issues with the Yanks over the years, but he’s been at his best at home this season, going 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 so far in the second half of the season. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in six of nine as a home underdog this year. The verdict: Note that Sabathia is also 12-1 in his last 16 starts vs. the Twins. |
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07-22-19 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9 | 1-11 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Astros. Homer Bailey (1-0, 3.00 ERA for the A’s) beat the Mariners 10-2 in his Oakland debut and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Bailey would go on to give up two runs over six innings, walking none and striking out six. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (10-5, 3.12), who has conceded more than one run just once in his last six starts. Key Trends: - Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 26 this year as a road dog. - Houston has seen the total go under the number in 23 of 34 this year when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. The verdict: Additionally note that Bailey is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. Houston, while Cole is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the A’s. This one has “duel” written all over it; play the under! |
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07-22-19 | Indians -160 v. Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland’s been the hottest team in the entire league since early June and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here in this favorable matchup. Toronto returns home dejected after going 4-6 on a road trip, including losing 4-3 in ten innings to the Tigers yesterday afternoon. The visitors see Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.57 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Ryan Borucki (making his season debut.) Clevinger enters off his best start of the year, giving up on run over six innings while also striking out 12 in a win over the Tigers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 21-10 (+8 units) this year vs. southpaws. - Toronto is just 22-42 (-19.2 units) vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: Clevinger is also 2-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA over his last three starts overall and 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in four career appearances vs. Toronto. Borucki was 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last year as a rookie. This one has “blowout” written all over it; lay it! |
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07-21-19 | A's v. Twins UNDER 11 | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Twins. I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry American League clubs on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.38 ERA) goes for Minnesota, while Daniel Mengden (5-1, 4.21) gets the nod for the visitors. Pineda has conceded more than three runs in a games just once in his last 12 starts and he’s 4-1 with a tiny 2.75 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland. Mengden comes in having won four straight. Key Trends: - Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in 23 of 35 this year vs. teams with winning records. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of 12 home games already this year with a total of either 10 to 10.5. The verdict: Look for these two competent hurlers to battle deep into this one, and play the under! |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays -235 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. No upsets here today as I expect Rays ace Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA) to get the better of his younger counterpart today. Tampa lost 2-1 in 11 innings yesterday, but I expect the home side to respond here. Snell had a 9.64 ERA in June, but so far in July he’s allowed two earned runs over ten innings, both starts coming against the high-powered Yankees. The White Sox go with Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73), who makes his third major league starts of his career, most recently getting rocked for six runs over six innings in a loss to the Royals. Key Trends: - Chicago is a terrible 16-28 (-8.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Tampa is 18-9 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: After yesterday’s loss, look for Tampa to take advantage of this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-21-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 11 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Indians. After scoring 43 runs over six games, the Tribe were held to just three hits in their last outing, a 1-0 Royals victory on Saturday. I think we’ll see a few more runs than that today, but all signs once again point to a lower-scoring “duel” in the finale of this three game set in my opinion. Kansas City goes with Glenn Sparkman (3-5, 4.54 ERA) who comes in off his best start of his career, scattering five hits and striking out eight in his first career shutout vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. The home side sees Zach Plesac (3-3, 3.56) toe the slab, who also comes in off a strong outing vs. Detroit in his last start, allowing no runs or hits over a rain-shortened three innings of work. Key Trends: - KC has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 “day” games. The verdict: In my opinion, the overall situation combined with the above strong O/U trends exhibited by each side, do indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-20-19 | Marlins v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over Marlins/Dodgers. LA Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw (8-2, 3.00 ERA) is enjoying another solid year, but he’s just 5-5 vs. Miami in 11 career match ups. LA won’t be taking anything for granted here either in my opinion after it’s lacklustre 2-1 victory last night. And that’s bade news for Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 3.94), who has lost three straight and posted a ballooned 6.11 ERA (Alcantara was most recently shelled for four runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets.) Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over the number in 9 of its last 14 after allowing three runs or less in three straight games. - LA has seen the total soar over in 20 of its last 32 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: The situation and the numbers point to a “slug-fest” in my opinion; play the over! |
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07-20-19 | Padres v. Cubs -128 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Padres have lost six of their last seven and I believe the slide continues on Saturday afternoon. The Cubs are now trending in the other direction, having gone 6-1 since the Mid-Summer Classic. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA), while the home side sees Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21) toe the rubber. Lucchesi has made one start vs. the Cubs, giving up three runs off seven hits over five innings. Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. the Friars. Key Trends: - San Diego is just 7-10 vs. southpaws this season. - Chicago has struggled vs. lefties as well this year (just 7-10), but it’s a sharp 20-6 (+11 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: San Diego has committed nine errors over its last five games and I believe its slide back into mediocrity continues in the sweltering afternoon Chicago heat; lay the short price! |
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07-19-19 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Mets/Giants. A couple of pitchers who I expect to start and go deep go head to head in this one on Friday night and I think runs will be at a premium. The visitors see Jacob deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side goes with Tyler Beede (3-3, 5.44). deGrom enters off a gem, allowing one run off six hits with three walks over five innings vs. Miami on Sunday. Overall the Mets’ ace has a stellar 144:28 K:BB this year (note that he’s 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA on the road this season.) Beede enters off a strong outing as well, allowing three runs while striking out seven over seven innings vs. the Brewers on Sunday. Overall Beede is 2-0 in July, striking out 11 and allowing four runs over 14 frames of work. The verdict: I’m expecting these starters to continue their recent form and as such, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-19-19 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Astros. Two All Stars square off on the mound Friday night and in my opinion, runs will definitely be at a premium. Mike Minor (8-4, 2.73 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.98). Minor took a no-decision vs. the Astros last weekend, allowing four runs off seven hits with seven K’s over five innings. Note though that Minor is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA in all night games this year. Verlander started the second half with another victory, giving up two runs and one walk with seven K’s over six innings vs. these very Rangers last Sunday. Note that Verlander is 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA in all “night” contests this season. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 13 road games as an underdog in the +175 to +225 range. - Houston has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 15 home games in which Verlander is throwing and in which the total is either at 8 or 8.5. The verdict: With these two battling deep into the latter frames, all signs point to the under as the correct call here! |
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07-19-19 | A's v. Twins -128 | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) who comes in off a gem, going six scoreless vs. the White Sox on Saturday. For the most part Bassitt’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, but note that if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 2-2 with a subpar 4.73 ERA. Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06) enters off a gem vs. the Indians on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings in the eventual victory. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +150 range. - Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. The verdict: Note that Odorizzi has been at his best at home as well this year, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Lay the price and expect a rout! |
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07-19-19 | Blue Jays -145 v. Tigers | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Two teams which won’t be in the playoffs collide on Friday night, but I think that Marcus Stroman and the Jays are worth the price of admission. Stroman (5-10, 3.25 ERA) enters off a strong start, giving up three runs while striking out seven over six innings vs. the Yankees on Sunday (note that Stroman’s been at his best on the road this year as well with a 2.94 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.) Detroit sees Jordan Zimmermann (0-6, 7.01) toe the slab and he most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Royals on Sunday. Over his last two starts Zimmermann has allowed 14 earned runs spanning 7.1 innings of work. Key Trends: - Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine American League road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - Detroit is just 2-6 in its last eight home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: Stroman is still being shopped around and I expect him to keep his level of performance high; lay the price! |
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07-19-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Red Sox/Orioles. Two decent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I believe that runs will still be plentiful on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (7-2, 3.16 ERA), while the home side counters with John Means (7-5, 2.94). Price has unquestionably been the most consistent starter in Boston’s rotation this year, but he most recently gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Sunday. Means enters off a poor start as well, allowing six runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to the Rays last weekend. Key Trends: - Boston has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. - Baltimore has seen the total go over in eight of its last nine at home with a money line in the -175 to +175 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that further regression in imminent in my opinion. Coupled with the above trends/numbers/stats and all signs do indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one! |
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07-18-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the UNDER Brewers/D-Backs. Considering the talent on the mound tonight, I think this total is a little high. The visitors go with Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA), while the home side counters with Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93). Davies most recently allowed one run with five K’s over six innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Over 102 innings Davies now has a 2.89 ERA and 68:32 K:BB. Kelly gave up four runs (only one earned) while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Saturday, undone by his defense. Overall Kelly has an 86:31 K:BB over 110 frames of work. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number eight of its last 12 National League night road games in which the line is set between -125 and +125. - Arizona has seen the total go under the total in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. The verdict: I expect these two starters to fight deep into the latter frames and as such, all signs doing indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The A’s Mike Fiers is 9-3 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s been a big reason why his team is doing so well right now. The Twins’ Kyle Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA and he’s been a crucial part of his team’s success over the first half. In this particular matchup, i don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Gibson gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision in his last start vs. the Tribe. Overall though Gibson has been at his best at home this year by going 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Fiers went seven scoreless in a victory over the White Sox in his last start. Note that if Fiers has had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play on the road where he’s a sub-par 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 4-6 in its last ten American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. - Minnesota is 7-2 in Gibson’s last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for Minnesota to ride Gibson to a solid win and lay this very reasonable price! |
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07-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees -114 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.35 ERA), while the home side counters with JA Happ (7-5, 4.93). Morton gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Orioles in his last start. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Morton, as he’s been superb this year. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Happ took a loss in Toronto in his last start despite allowing just two runs with five K’s over six innings on Saturday. Key Trends: - Tampa is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - New York is 17-10 in its last 27 American League home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -120 range. The verdict: Note that Happ has posted a tiny 1.93 ERA vs. the Rays over the last two seasons. Look for Happ to continue his dominance in this series and for the hard-hitting home side to take advantage; lay the price! |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cards/Reds. I think these starters are going to fight each other deep into the latter innings and because of that, I’ll recommend making a play on the “under” in this one. St. Louis goes with Daniel Hudson (8-4, 3.48 ERA) who struck out five and picked up a victory in Saturday’s 4-2 win over Arizona on Saturday, giving up two runs off three hits with four walks over six innings. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.99), who is looking to bounce back after allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Colorado. Despite a 1-5 record at home, Roark owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in such instances though. Key Trends: - Note that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 night National League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - Note that Cincinnati has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven home games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: As stated off the top, I’m expecting the starters to throw into the latter frames; play the under! |
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07-18-19 | Tigers v. Indians -200 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting home side to take advantage of the toothless visiting side. The visitors go with Matt Boyd (6-7, 3.95 ERA), while the Indians counter with Trevor Bauer (8-7, 3.65). Boyd comes in off a strong outing vs. the Royals on Saturday, allowing four runs over seven innings, but the hard-throwing right-hander still took the loss. Note that Boyd’s been much better at home (3.36 ERA) than on the road (4.83). Bauer took a loss in his last start as well despite striking out 11 and giving up three runs over six innings vs. the Twins on Saturday. Note that Bauer has been at his best at home with a 3-2, 3.16 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 2-8 in its last eight road games as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - Cleveland is 9-3 in its last 12 American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -250 range. The verdict: I think Bauer is well worth the price of admission in this match-up; lay it! |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Two competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, with Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.65 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors and Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.63) toeing the slab for the home side. I think that runs are going to be at a premium in this one as I expect these two starters to battle deep. Striping most recently allowed one run off four hits over five innings while striking out seven and walking no one in a victory over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Nola comes in off a strong outing as well, allowing one run off five hits with nine K’s over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Nationals on Saturday. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last 11 National League day road games in which it’s an underdog in the +100 to +135 range. - Philadelphia has seen the total dip under the number in eight of 12 home games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these starters points to this total falling below the posted number; play the under! |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Two capable hurlers collide in this National League contest on Wednesday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.82 ERA) took an unfortunate loss in Boston last Friday, allowing three runs while striking out seven over six frames. Nick Pivetta (4-4, 5.81) who gave up three runs over five innings in in a loss vs. Washington on Friday. Key Trends: - Note though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten National League home games in which the total in the contest is set at either 10 or 10.5. - Also note that LA has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 road night games as a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the under! |
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07-17-19 | Giants v. Rockies -170 | 11-8 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies at this price at home with the superior starter on the hill are well worth the admission. The visitors turn to Shaun Anderson (3-2, 4.48 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that Anderson has a 4.81 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Jon Gray (9-6, 3.83) who gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Overall Gray has a 121:42 K:BB and he’s been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA. Key Trends: - The Giants are just 8-12 in their last 20 road games as an underdog in the +150 to +165 range. - The Rockies 7-2 in their last nine games at home with Gray on the mound and with a money line in the -165 to -185 range. The verdict: Look for Anderson to take a step back in this difficult road venue and for the veteran Gray to continue his consistent run at Coors this year; lay the short price! |
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07-17-19 | Reds v. Cubs -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I think the home side will find a way to get the job done in this one once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.42 ERA), who gave up one run off five hits and three walks in a no-decision to the Rockies on Friday. Gray has been decent overall, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “day” games this year, going just 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA in such instances. Yu Darvish (2-4, 4.72) comes in off his best start in over a calendar year, going six shutout innings, allowing two hits, one walk and eight K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Pirates in his last outing. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 4-7 in its last 11 National League “day” games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. - The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -145 range. The verdict: I like Darvish to continue his recent progression and I expect Gray to take a step back in this “day” game; lay the short price! |
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07-17-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Brewers. Two capable pitchers go head to head in this National League contest on Wednesday afternoon and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (3-2, 3.09 ERA), while the home side goes with Chase Anderson (4-2, 4.27). Anderson has a 72:23 K:BB over 71.2 innings of work this year and he’s 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in all “day” games. Keuchel gave up one run off six hits with four walks over seven innings in a win over the Padres in his last outing. Key Trends: - The Braves have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last 11 road games as an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - The Brewers have seen the total go under in ten of their last 16 home day games with a money line in the +125 to -125 range. The verdict: Once again I’m expecting the starting pitchers to throw deep and as such, look for this one to stay well below the posted number! |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Pirates/Cardinals. Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Wednesday afternoon and I think that runs will be at a premium. Chris Archer (3-6, 5.42 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Daniel Ponce de Leon (0-0, 1.99). Archer gave up three runs off three hits with two walks and ten K’s over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Cubs last time out. de Leon comes in off a strong start too, giving up one run off three hits over seven innings. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in seven of its last 11 road “day” games. - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The verdict: I expect these starters to battle deep into the latter frames and as such, look for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done! |
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07-16-19 | Mariners +160 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Seattle Mariners. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog in this one. Oakland looks poised for a classic letdown after sweeping the White Sox over the weekend. The Mariners’ Marco Gonzales (10-7, 4.24 ERA) is 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts vs. the A’s this year and he’s 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven career appearances vs. them. Overall Gonzales is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts as well. A’s starter Daniel Mengden (4-1, 4.73 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in six career appearances vs. the M’s. Key Trends: - Seattle is already 3-1 (+2.4 units) this year after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. - Oakland is a poor 9-14 (-6.7 units) this season after a win by two runs or less. The verdict: I think Gonzales has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one considering his recent form. Play on Seattle! |
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07-16-19 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 14 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the under Giants/Rockies. After yesterday’s 19-2 “slug-fest” win for San Francisco, the Giants followed it up with a 2-1 win in the second game of the double-header last night. I believe the finale tonight will follow more of Game 2’s “suit.” Peter Lambert (2-1, 6.67 ERA) gets the call for Rockies, while the Giants counter with Drew Pomeranz (2-9, 6.42). Pomeranz has to be feeling confident he can produce a decent start here, as he’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career games vs. Colorado. Key Trends: - San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four on the road when the total is 12 or higher. - Colorado has seen the total go under in 16 of its last 26 with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: A couple of high ERA pitchers here, but the numbers and the overall “situation” point to more of a “duel” in my opinion. This number is a tad high, play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both Joe Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) of the Pirates and Miles Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) of the Cardinals have enjoyed incredible success in their careers, but so far 2019 has not been one of those campaigns for either beleaguer hurler. These starters are a “wash” today. Neither has any momentum. The Pirates have no momentum either after getting swept in Chicago over the weekend. I think the difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Pittsburgh is just 18-27 as a road dog this year. - Also note that St. Louis is 14-7 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I like St. Louis to take advantage of home field; lay the short price! |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Brewers. I think these starters will battle into the deep innings and as such, I look for this total to sneak below this sky-high number. Max Fried (9-4, 4.29 ERA) gets the call for the Braves, while the Brewers turn to Adrian Houser (2-3, 4.01). Fried is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA lifetime vs. the Brewers, but he’ll be eager to get back on track after scuffling down the stretch of the first half. Houser also struggled in his last couple of starts before the break, but overall he’s been solid this season (note that he’s faced the Braves once in relief and he’d allow three hits over three innings.) Key Trends: - The Braves have seen the total go under the number in 13 of 20 this year on the road when the money line is in the -100 to -150 range. - The Brewers have seen the total go under in 16 of 25 vs. southpaws already this season. The verdict: Additionally note that Brewers’ slugger Ryan Braun won’t be in the line-up tonight as he attends the funeral of Tyler Skaggs. This number is a little high, play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Reds v. Cubs -120 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I played on the Cubs in their three-game series sweep of the Pirates in every contest and I believe that the home side keeps the good times rolling here. Cincinnati goes with ace Luis Castillo (8-3, 2.29 ERA), while the visitors counter with Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.49). Hendricks is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is a poor 10-20 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Chicago is a great 18-5 (+10.4 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Additionally note that Hendricks is a “lights out” 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three meetings vs. the Reds. Chicago won’t be taking anything for granted here after losing six of nine in the season series to this point. All things considered, a great price on a hot team; lay it! |
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07-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -184 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Boston Red Sox. This is a big game and a big series for Boston, which plays its next 21 games vs. AL East foes. The home side sends Rick Porcello (6-7, 5.33 ERA) to toe the slab, while the visitors go with Trent Thornton (3-6, 4.85). Both starters have struggled against their respective opponent, so I’m calling them a “wash.” The difference comes in the numbers/stats/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Toronto is just 6-18 (-6.7 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more. - Additionally note that Boston is 31-15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. The verdict: Toronto’s offense has been terrible of late, as it was held to two runs or fewer for the fifth tim in its last six games in yesterday’s 4-2 loss in New York. Look for the Red Sox to get their big home stand started off on the “right foot!” |
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07-15-19 | Tigers v. Indians -161 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland has won seven of its last ten and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here vs. the lowly Tigers. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-8, 4.96 ERA) who gave up six runs to the Tribe back on June 23rd and who owns a 4.37 ERA vs. them in nine career appearances. Norris most recently was rocked for six runs vs. the White Sox on July 3rd to fall to 0-6 during a brutal ten-start winless streak. The home side counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.95) who enters off a poor start vs. the Orioles, allowing five runs over five innings, but who is a sharp 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 12-33 (-15.2 units) this year in all “night” games. - Cleveland is 16-8 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. The verdict: Look for Plutko to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart as Cleveland continues its torrid streak at home; lay the price! |
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07-15-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 16-2 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Zach Eflin (7-8, 3.78 ERA) squares off against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 3.09). Both teams enter off Sunday victories. Eflin was rocked in his final start before the break, but overall he’s been solid this year. With the extra time off, there’s no reason not to think that he can’t match Kershaw inning for inning. Kershaw has a 2.84 ERA in 14 career regular season starts vs. the Phillies. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year on the road when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. - Philadelphia has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 following a win by two runs or less. The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion; play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rays/Yankees. New York leads the season series 9-4, but Tampa took two of three in a series right before the All-Star break. However the Rays have lost four straight in the Bronx, allowing 34 runs in the process. New York enters having gone 12-0-1 in its last 13 home series after securing the 4-2 win over Toronto on Sunday. James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four career match ups with the Rays. The Rays go with Blake Snell, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA vs. New York this year. Clearly Snell won’t be lacking for motivation. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in nine of 12 already as a road do this season. - New York has seen the total go under in 11 of 17 already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Look for these hungry and capable starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done! |
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07-14-19 | Mariners v. Angels -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The visitors hand the ball to shaky Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 4.94 ERA) who got off to decent start in the Majors, but who has since regressed significantly. Kikuchi has been destroyed by the Angels this year as well, going 1-2 with a 12.34 ERA. The home side counters with Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.40) who is getting a shot in the rotation out of necessity because of Tyler Skaggs death (Suarez faced the M’s on june 2nd and gave up three runs over six innings in a victory, before then losing his second start vs. them, allowing two runs over five innings.) Key Trends: - Seattle is a terrible 14-25 (-5.2 units) this year as a road underdog. - LA is a fantastic 21-12 (+6.3 units) this season vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I like Suarez to get the better of his “gas can” counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | White Sox v. A's -207 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Oakland Athletics. The A’s have rolled to victories in the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (4-8, 6.34 ERA), while the home side counters with Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.86). Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, while Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the A’s. Key Trends: - Chicago is a a terrible 16-25 (-5.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Oakland is 19-19 (+4.3 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: Lay the price and expect Anderson to deliver the goods with ease! |
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07-14-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I’ve played on the Cubs in each of the last two games and I believe they’re going to produce the series sweep this afternoon. The home side has to be feeling confident it can keep the good times rolling by handing the ball to Jose Quintana (6-7, 4.19 ERA) who won his final two games before the break (Quintana has dominated the Pirates throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA with 46 K’s and six walks spanning 42 frames opposed). The now struggling visiting side counters with Trevor Williams (3-2, 4.54) who is 3-4 with a 4.25 ERA in nine games vs. Chicago with 19 walks and 30 K’s over 42 1/3’s innings of work. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 this season as a +150 or higher underdog. - Chicago is 16-5 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think that Quintana could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Mets -170 v. Marlins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. It’s a big game for the Mets, as they look to start the second half off with a road series win, which will be their first in three months. New York has to be feeling confident as well in handing the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who has posted a tiny 2.68 ERA over his last seven starts (61 K’s and seven walks.) The home side counters with Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82) who has been hit or miss this year and who I think is in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Key Trends: - New York is 24-15 in its last 39 as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Miami is just 5-17 as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range this year. The verdict: I like the All Star deGrom to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -114 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia battles back here in my opinion to avoid the series sweep. Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.67 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while the Nationals counter with Anibal Sanchez (5-6, 3.66). Neither starter has been particularly impressive this season and each has struggled against his respective opponent today. In my opinion the starters a “wash” and the difference comes in the numbers/trends/stats and on the home side’s desperation levels. Key Trends: - Washington is still just 23-24 (-5.4 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Philadelphia is 27-15 as a home favorite still this year. The verdict: After winning 12 of their last 14 and the first two of this series, I think the Nationals finally have a letdown here and I look for the desperate Phillies to take advantage. Play on Philadelphia! |
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07-13-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -114 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals. I think we’re getting a great price on the superior starter in this one. The Cards will be hungry to bounce back after last night’s 4-2 series opening loss. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.03 ERA) has been “hit or miss” this year and while he’s been decent of late, I think he’s in the “wrong place” at the “wrong time” tonight. The home side counters with Dakota Hudson (7-4, 3.51) who has made eight straight quality starts. Key Trends: - Arizona is already just 2-4 this year after four or more consecutive victories. - St. Louis is already 6-3 this season after three or more consecutive losses. The verdict: After four straight wins, I think that the D-Backs finally have a letdown here. And after three straight losses, I expect the Cardinals to lay everything on the line and play with a sense of desperation. Lay the short price! |
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07-13-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -171 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. I had a play on the Cubs last night and I think they’ll carry over their momentum from the victory here in what sets up to be another favorable matchup for them on the mound. The visitors go with Jordan Lyles (5-5, 4.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Lester (8-6, 3.72). Lester is 9-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 19 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lester is also 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA at home this year. Lyles is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 as a +150 or higher dog this season. - Chicago is 26-13 as a home favorite this year. The verdict: I expect Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Braves -114 v. Padres | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA), while the home side goes with Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40.) The Padres closed the first half with three straight road wins vs. the Dodgers and I think that a classic “letdown” to open the second is imminent. Keuchel has looked decent since coming to Atlanta, allowing 11 runs over 25 innings with 12 K’s (note that Keuchel is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA with seven K’s over 14 innings vs. the Friars.) Lamet is making his second start back after having Tommy John surgery last year. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 15-6 (+8.1 units) this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - San Diego is just 7-8 this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: Note that the Padres are only 23-24 at Petco this year as well. Look for Keuchel to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart and lay this price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -115 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland comes in as the “hungrier” team, as it still sits behind Minnesota in the standings. But the Tribe won 21 of their last 29 to close the first half and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44). Gibson is 3-9 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts vs. Cleveland, while Clevinger is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. Minnesota. Key Trends: - Minnesota is just 2-5 (-2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Cleveland is 18-12 (+6.1 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: I think the Twins take a step back in the second half and I expect the Indians to carry over their recent momentum. All things considered, a very fair price on the home side; lay it! |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Orioles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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07-12-19 | Nationals -123 v. Phillies | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. I think we’re getting great value on the superior pitcher. The Nationals hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84). Washington comes in as the hottest team in the league, having gone 28-11 since May 24th. The Phillies closed the first half by going just 14-21. Strasburg is 12-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Philadelphia, while Pivetta is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA over his last four outings overall and 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Washington. Key Trends: - Washington is 20-10 (+4.3 units) already this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Philadelphia is just 3-11 (-6.5 units) already this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Starsburg at this price and in this match-up is a “steal” in my opinion. Play on the Nationals! |
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07-12-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -150 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Both the Pirates’ Chris Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) and the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01) have been terrible this season. Each has struggled against their respective opponents as well. It was only three years ago that each of these guys was an All Star as well. Regardless, for this contest I’m calling these “gas cans” a “wash.” The difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is a horrible 65-100 (-8.7 units) the L2 years as a road dog. - Chicago is 15-5 (+7.4 units) already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: I think the Cubs send an early message to the rest of the division with a big night at the plate to open the second half. Lay the price! |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Astros/Rangers. The Astros have a 7.5 game lead in the American League West, but I think they come out flat here to open the second half. Houston faces a tough opponent in veteran Lance Lynn (11-4, 3.91 ERA) as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Houston. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.57) who has struggled in the big leagues this year for the most part, after going 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA last season. Key Trends: - Note though that Houston has seen the total go under the number in 27 of 44 this year vs. teams with winning records. - Additionally note that Texas has seen the total dip under in both contests it’s played in this season in which trying to revenge two straight losses where opponent scored eight or more runs in. The verdict: Based primarily upon Lynn’s recent form, look for this total stay well under once it’s all said and done; play the under! |
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07-09-19 | National League v. American League UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 53 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under All Star Game. The AL has won six straight in this series. Both line-ups feature plenty of home-run power, but I think that after last night’s historic home run derby battle, that the Mid-Summer Classic will be dominated by the pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Justin Verlander square off to open things up and they’ve been nearly untouchable over the first half. The “pitchers” on both sides come in with a chip on their collective shoulders after Verlander blasted the league yesterday about what he feels to be “juiced balls.” The home run rate over the first half is at 2.74 per game, which ranks the highest since the “steroid era.” The verdict: But while most are probably reckoning on a higher-scoring slug-fest, I’m going the other way and expecting the men on the mound to dominate tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a little high, play the under! |
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -152 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -152 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers. I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91 ERA), while the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45.) After consecutive defeats to the Friars, I expect the Dodgers to lay everything on the line here as they look to close the first half on a winning note. Note that in 13 appearances vs. the Padres, Stripling owns a tiny 2.61 ERA. Lucchesi on the other hand is 0-3 with a ballooned 7.64 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. the Dodgers. Key Trends: - San Diego is still just 18-21 (-5.1 units) this year vs. the division. - LA is still 10-3 (+6 units) this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I look for Stripling to come in focused on the task at hand; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-07-19 | Phillies -102 v. Mets | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This should be a highly entertaining finale between two teams hungry for a win. However, I think that Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (7-2, 3.89 ERA) offers great value at this price. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (6-5, 4.42). Wheeler gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Yanks in his last outing, while Nola went eight scoreless vs. the Braves in a 2-0 victory on Tuesday. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 20-9 (+14.1 units) in its last 29 off a one run loss vs. a division rival. - New York is just 4-9 (-5.6 units) this season following a one run victory. The verdict: Look for Nola to build off his latest gem and look for Philadelphia to bounce back after last night’s 6-5 setback! |
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07-06-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Dodgers. Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been great for San Diego and while the Padres rallied to even this four-game series at 1-1 last night, I think the rookie hurler struggles on the road vs. this difficult opponent (note that Paddack faced the Dodgers back on May 14th and he was shelled for six runs over four innings). LA sees Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78) toe the slab tonight; Maeda is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Friars. Key Trends: - San Diego is already a terrible 7-9 (-4 units) this year after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. - LA is a terrific 10-2 (+7.6 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I think Paddack struggles in the bright lights of Chavez Ravine; lay the price! |
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07-06-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -106 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Fran Giants. I like the home side to bounce back here after last night’s 9-4 series opening setback. The Giants turn to Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 4.02 ERA) who comes in on top form, off back-to-back victories over Colorado an Arizona, the veteran has conceded just three runs off seven hits over his last 13 innings, while also striking out 20. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas (5-8, 4.34) who has looked much better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but who I believe is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - St. Louis is just 8-17 (-7.4 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher. - San Francisco is 9-5 in its last 14 as a favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Bumgarner continues his torrid stretch to end the first half; lay the short price! |
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07-06-19 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Mets. Two hungry veteran hurlers collide in their final starts before the All Star break and I’m expecting a classic “duel.” Philadelphia took the opener of this series 7-2. New York has gone just 13-23 since May 27th, but despite last night’s win, Philadelphia has just nine victories in its last 24 games (five of which have come vs. the Mets.) Noah Syndergaard gets the call for the home side and he’ll be asked to “throw deep,” as Mets relievers have an atrocious 8.01 ERA since May 27th (Syndergaard is 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 11 starts vs. Philadelphia.) Phillies’ starter Jake Arrieta own a sharp 2.85 ERA in 13 career regular season starts vs. the Mets. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 26 of its last 41 following a victory. - New York has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this year when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards; play the under! |
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07-06-19 | Marlins v. Braves -184 | 5-4 | Loss | -184 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. Miami has lost five straight coming into this final series before the All Star break. Braves’ starter Max Fried, who is 9-3 with a 4.04 ERA gets the nod for the home side. Fried has actually struggled vs. the Marlins over three career starts, posting a 5.14 ERA, but Miami has struggled at the plate of late, as evidenced by last night’s 1-0 setback. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 9-1 vs. Miami this year. - The Fish have scored more than two runs in only three of the ten in the series this year. The verdict: Miami starter Caleb Smith hasn’t pitched since June 6th because of a hip issue. Lay the price and expect Fried to get back on track! |
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07-06-19 | Yankees v. Rays -138 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. Enough is enough! After six straight losses in this series, I like the Rays to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. So far New York is 9-2 in this season series after last night’s 8-4 win. In fact New York has taken the first two games of this series by the identical score: "There's a lot of baseball left," TB manager Kevin Cash assessed after last night’s setback. "We just got to play better against this team. You take out what we've done against the Yankees, I think we're all really thrilled, but you can't do that. We'd certainly like to feel better about ourselves going into the break." Rays’ starter Blake Snell has performed poorly over the first half of the season, but he comes in off his best start of the season, giving up two runs over six innings in a 6-2 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Yanks starter CC Sabathia throws for the first time since June 24th. Key Trends: - New York is a poor 2-5 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Rays are still 21-16 this season following a loss. The verdict: I think Snell closes the first half with a gem and I expect the desperate home side to provide their ace with just enough support. Lay the short price! |
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07-05-19 | A's -120 v. Mariners | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. I think the A’s Brett Anderson (8-5, 3.92 ERA) is the correct call in this matchup vs. the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.12). Oakland has won 12 of its last 16 to move into second place, which it capped off with a 7-2 win over the Twins on Thursday (I unfortunately had the Twins in that one, and while I’m never one to “flip flop” from one team to the next, baseball is the one sport in which each contest has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitching. And that’s definitely the case here.) Seattle on the other hand has lost six of its last seven. Key Trends: - Anderson went eight scoreless in a 4-0 win over the Angels in his last start and he’s 9-5 with a 2.34 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the M’s. - Kikuchi has faced Oakland four times and he’s 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in those outings. The verdict: All things considered, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Play on Oakland! |
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07-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates +100 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Inept offense. The Brewers have a slim lead in the division, but they’ve sure been struggling down the stretch; note that the offense has been shutout in back-to-back games and I don’t think things get any easier facing the Pirates’ Steven Brault, who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA since joining the rotation permanently in late May. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is just 19-24 (-5.6 units) on the road this year. - Pittsburgh is 2-0 (+3.1 units) this year following a loss by eight runs or more to a division rival (just fell 11-3 to the Cubs.) The verdict: Brewers’ starter Zach Davies has had success vs. Pittsburgh in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Play on the home side! |
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07-04-19 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Angels/Rangers. Both the Angels and Rangers are known for their prowess at the plate, but I think it’ll be the starting pitchers who will grab the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries. Griffin Canning (3-4, 3.79 ERA) toes the slab for the Angels, while the Rangers counter with Lance Lynn (10-4, 4.00). Canning got back on track in his last outing with a 8-3 win over the A’s, allowing two runs off three hits with six K’s over six innings of work. Lynn though is the difference maker overall here, as he arguably comes in as the hottest pitcher in all of MLB, going 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA in June, most recently throwing eight shutout innings in a 5-0 victory over Tampa Bay on Friday. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 following a victory. - Texas has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 19 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I expect these two hot hurlers to continue their recent form. Play the under! |
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07-04-19 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | 6-12 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Braves. Two very competent hurlers collide in this one and I think they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors turn to Zach Eflin (7-7, 3.34 ERA), while the home side sees All Star Game bound rookie phenom Mike Soroka (9-1, 2.13) toe the slab. These two teams are in a battle right now, with the Braves sitting 5.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies. Soroka most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the Mets. Eflin comes in off a strong outing vs. the Marlins, giving up three runs over six innings. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 17 already this year after having won five or six of its last seven games. - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 16 of its last 26 vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: Game 1 of this series went well below the posted number and the finale also sets up great as a “duel” in my opinion. Play the under! |
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07-04-19 | Twins -131 v. A's | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. Jose Berrios (8-4, 2.89 ERA) hasn’t been at his best over his last couple starts, but he just found out that he’ll be replacing teammate Jake Odorrizi in the upcoming All Star Game this weekend. With a chance to erase his scuffling stretch with one last winning effort before the break, I expect Berrios to make the most of this favorable match. And that’s because his counterpart is confirmed “gas can” Tanner Anderson (0-3, 7.13) who has been crushed for ten runs off 15 hits over his last six innings of work. Key Trends: - Minnesota is a red hot 11-3 (+6.6 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Oakland is a terrible 1-4 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog of +125 or higher. The verdict: Look for Berrios to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay it! |
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07-04-19 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Pirates. The Cubs will be desperate to get back on track here after losing the first three games of this four game set. Pittsburgh has outscored them 29-11 in the process. The Pirates clearly won’t be “rolling over” though, as they’re now just two games behind slumping Chicago. Jose Quintana (5-7, 4.21 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jordan Lyles (5-4, 3.71). Quintana certainly won’t be taking anything for granted here either after breaking his six-game losing streak last time out, going six scoreless vs. the Reds: "I needed an outing like that to get my confidence back," Quintana said. "My focus was on one pitch at a time. ... I had confidence. My stuff worked really good.” Note that Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lyles comes in off a loss despite pitching well, giving up three runs over six frames in a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee. Lyles is a sharp 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 career match ups vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 25 vs. the division. - Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in six of its last ten vs. southpaws. The verdict: Note that Cubs’ slugger Jason Heyward is questionable for this one. When you add it all up, this one sets up as more of a “duel” than a “slugfest.” Play the under! |
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07-04-19 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Brewers/Reds. Considering the talent level on the mound, I believe this total is much too high. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA), while the Reds go with Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47). The Brewers lost 3-0 yesterday and they’ve now lost ten of their last 16, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff though enters on top form as he posted his second straight on Saturday by allowing one run off six hits spanning eight frames of work in a victory over the Pirates. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 vs. clubs with losing records. - The Reds have seen the total dip under in nine of 14 as a home dog this year. - Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 32 of 59 vs. teams with winning records this season. The verdict: Expect these hungry starters to battle deep and for the above trends to continue strong. This number is high, play the under! |
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07-04-19 | Brewers -125 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA), while the Reds go with Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47). The Brewers lost 3-0 yesterday and they’ve now lost ten of their last 16, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff though enters on top form as he posted his second straight win on Saturday by allowing one run off six hits spanning eight frames of work in a victory over the Pirates. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is still 21-10 (+10.4 units) this year in all day games. - Cincinnati is just 12-24 (-11.8 units) this season in all day games. The verdict: The Brewers only have a 4.5 game lead over the last placed Reds and after yesterday’s humbling defeat, I expect them to come in focused on the task at hand vs. the struggling Castillo. Lay the short price! |
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07-03-19 | Giants v. Padres -137 | 7-5 | Loss | -137 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. I had a big play on the Padres last night and I’m stunned at how poorly Matt Strahm performed. With revenge fresh on their minds though, I expect the Padres to bounce back here. San Diego is now one game under .500 with four games to go before the All Star break. San Diego has to play its next four vs. the Dodgers as well, putting added emphasis onto tonight’s contest. The Friars should be pumped up as well after back-to-back humbling defeats to the Giants (13-2, 10-4. Can anyone say “letdown spot” for San Fran?!) SD goes with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.66 ERA), while the Giants go with Shaun Anderson (3-2, 3.86). Quantrill has made ten major league appearances and has a 1.36 WHIP and a .268 opponents batting average, allowing 19 runs with 12 walks and 32 K’s over 36 2/3’s innings of work. Anderson has been sharp in his limited time, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - San Francisco is a terrible 1-5 (-3 units) already this season after having won four of its last five games. - San Diego is 13-8 (+3.9 units) this year after having lost three of its last four games. The verdict: I think San Fran’s letdown is imminent; lay the short price! |
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07-03-19 | Indians -154 v. Royals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians -157 8:15 EST Mike Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) has been injured most of the season and he returned just last week and gave up the most runs in his career (seven earned runs over just 1 2/3’s innings vs. the Orioles.) Despite that though, I think he’ll bounce back here with a much better effort and at the very least, match Danny Duffy (3-4, 4.43) inning for inning. Cleveland won 9-5 last night and it’s now 18-9 since June. Also note that Clevinger is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA lifetime vs. KC. Duffy is a downright terrible 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine road games after scoring nine or more runs in its previous contest. - Kansas City is a brutal 15-31 (-7.2 units) vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, lay the price on the hot hitting road team! |
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07-03-19 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Braves. Both Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.63 ERA) of the Phillies and Brian Wilson (0-0, 8.31) of the Braves will be eager to get untracked here. Philadelphia won for the fifth ten in seven games last night behind eight shutout innings from Aaron Nola. Pivetta will be coming in confident though as he’s 4-1 with a sharp 3.48 ERA in ten career outings vs. Atlanta. Wilson received a no-decision vs. the Phillies already this year back on March 30th, giving up four runs over four innings. Wilson’s been called up from Triple-A Gwinnett to make this start. Key Trends: - Atlanta though has seen the total dip below the number in 15 of its last 22 vs. teams with winning records. - Philadelphia has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 19 as a road underdog. The verdict: I like these two pitchers to battle deep into the latter frames and as such, I definitely think that the under is the correct call! |
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07-03-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Marlins/Nats. A couple of competent hurlers collide in this one on Wednesday night and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel.” Sandy Alcantara (4-7, 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Fish, while Stephen Strasburg goes for the Nationals. Strasburg has dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 19-7 with a 2.97 ERA over 33 lifetime meetings (he’s already 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA vs. them in two starts this season.) Alcantara was 0-2 vs. Washington last year and he’s 0-2 vs. them this season. Clearly he’s not going to be lacking for motivation. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go under the number in six of eight this year as a road dog of +200 or higher. - Washington has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six at home when then total is either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: Expect these starters to battle each other deep into the latter frames and play the under! |
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07-02-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -151 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres The Giants scored the upset in last night’s opener, but I expect the home side to respond in a big way on Tuesday. The Padres go with Matt Strahm (3-6, 4.94 ERA), while the visitors go with Tyler Beede (1-3, 6.45). Strahm struggled mightily in four June starts before hitting the DL for 11 days. Previous to his injury Strahm had posted a 3.21 ERA at the end of May. His first start back from injury was decent, allowing four runs over seven innings vs. the Orioles: "The three starts (before Baltimore) wasn't me out there," Strahm said. "I felt good. I was attacking the zone and eliminated the walks." Strahm’s faced the Giants twice and given up three runs and two walks with 12 K’s spanning eight innings of work. Beede has allowed a whopping 42 hits and 28 walks in just 37 2/3’s frames of work this year. Yes Strahm has issues, but nothing like Beede’s problems. Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 9-17 this year vs. southpaws. - San Diego is 13-8 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: The Padres come in hungry after getting spanked last night and they couldn’t have asked for a more favorable matchup. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay this mid sized price with confidence! |
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06-30-19 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Braves/Mets. Max Fried (9-3, 3.96 ERA) gets the call for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard (5-4, 4.55) gets the nod for the Mets. Atlanta’s taken the first two games of this series after rallying for a 5-4 win last night. New York won’t be lacking for motivation either as it comes in on a seven-game losing streak. The Mets’ bullpen has been a disaster, as set-up man Seth Lugo has allowed seven runs over his last 3 1/3’s innings of work. Syndergaard is being thrown to the wolves here after a two week stint on the DL (just gave up three runs over five innings in Triple-A re-hab.) Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go over in 28 of 43 vs. teams with losing records. - New York has seen the total go over the number in 26 of 42 this year vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: I expect Syndergaard to get the hook early and for the Mets bullpen to continue to get exposed. When you add it all up, the “over” is definitely the correct call here in my opinion! |
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06-30-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -152 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I had a play on the Brewers and yesterday and they prevailed 3-1. I expect a more lop-sided victory here today though. The home side hands the ball to Zach Davies (7-2, 3.34 ERA), while the visitors counter with Steven Brault (3-1, 4.50). Davies is just 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in June, but I like the veteran to settle down here in this favorable spot. Brault is 2-0 since joining the rotation, but I think he’ll take a step back here in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - Note that despite his recent “up-tick” in play, Brault is still only 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA in six starts vs. the Brewers. The verdict: The Pirates had won seven of eight before yesterday’s loss and I think this sets up as a prime “letdown” spot. Milwaukee won’t be taking anything for granted here, and neither will Davies. I like the home side and Davies to build off yesterday’s victory. Lay it! |
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06-29-19 | Cardinals v. Padres -110 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. A couple of hot rookies square off in this one, making home field the deciding factor in this one in my opinion. Dakota Hudson (6-3, 3.36 ERA) of the Cards goes up against Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.18) of the Padres. Key Trends: - The biggest stat/trend tonight is that Paddack has faced the Cardinals already once this year, holding them to one unearned run on one hit and four walks with four K’s over four innings. Hudson has never faced the Friars. The verdict: I like Paddack at home and think we’re getting an unbelievable price on him tonight. Lay it! |
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06-29-19 | A's v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over A’s/Angels. The Angels line-up is healthier than its ever been with Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani all now back in the line-up. That’s bad news for A’s starter Brett Andreson (7-5, 4.26 ERA) who is 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 14 games vs. the Angels. The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (7-6, 4.30) who has been shelled for eight runs spanning 8 2/3’s innings over two starts vs. the A’s this year. Key Trends: - Oakland has seen the total go over in 14 of 23 already this season after allowing two runs or less in its previous outing. - LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of 11 in trying got revenge a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I think these suspect starters get the hook early and as such, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Giants on the run line. San Francisco beat the Diamondbacks 6-3 on Friday night and I think that home side offers great value to do it again here. That said, in the end I’ll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has dominated the Giants throughout his career, but I think he’s overpriced here considering his recent form (has allowed 18 hits and nine runs over his last 13 innings of work). Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) gets the nod for the home side and while he’s struggled in the past for the Diamondbacks, he does enter off a season-best 11 strikeout performance. Key Trends: - Arizona is a terrible 1-8 (-8.8 units) this year off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. - San Francisco is 13-12 (+4.9 units) in the month of June. The verdict: In a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the home side on the run line! |
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06-29-19 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under M’s/Astros. The Astros won 2-1 in ten innings last night and I think that runs will be at a premium in this one as well. The Astros give the nod to ace Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.67 ERA), who broke his team’s seven game slide with a dominant effort over the Yanks last time out, holding them to three runs with nine K’s over seven innings. Verlander leads the AL in WHIP (0.75) and batting average allowed (.157) and he’s 13-9 with a 3.27 ERA in 27 career starts vs. the M’s. Seattle counters with southpaw Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.11), who comes in off a strong outing vs. Baltimore, allowing three runs with three K’s over six frames in the victory. Key Trends: - Seattle has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as an underdog of +200 or higher. - Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 22 this year vs. left-handed starters. The verdict: I expect these competent hurlers to battle deep. This number is high, play the under! |
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06-29-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -190 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I had a play on the Brewers last night and they’d unfortunately come up short. I think the home side bounces bak here though in this favorable matchup on the mound. Brandon Woodruff (9-2, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and his team has won 13 of the last 16 games that he’s appeared in. Woodruff is 6-1 in the past two months alone and he’s also hitting .324 at the plate in 37 at bats. Jordan Lyles (5-3, 3.64) gets the call for Milwaukee; he was 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his first nine starts this season. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is still just 2-5 (-2 units) this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. - Milwaukee is 25-7 (+17.8 units) in its last 32 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. The verdict: After winning seven of their past eight, all signs finally point to a letdown here in my opinion for the overachieving visiting side. And after losing eight of their last 11, I look for the Brewers to rally behind Woodruff for the victory on Saturday night; lay the price! |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Rockies. Colorado won 13-9 as a sizeable underdog last night and it’s combined to score 134 runs with its opponents over the past six games at Coors Field. While offensive production has been plentiful of late in Denver, I think the stage is finally set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. LA goes with ace Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92). Kershaw is 10-4 with a 4.57 ERA and one shutout at Coors lifetime. In seven starts at home Gray is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under in three of its last four after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games. - Colorado has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after allowing nine or more runs in two straight games. The verdict: I think these two veteran starters battle into the latter frames and I expect this total to sneak under this sky-high number once it’s all said and done! |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Rockies run-line. Colorado won 13-9 as a sizeable underdog last night and it’s combined to score 134 runs with its opponents over the past six games at Coors Field. While offensive production has been plentiful of late in Denver, I think the stage is finally set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. LA goes with ace Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92). Kershaw is 10-4 with a 4.57 ERA and one shutout at Coors lifetime. In seven starts at home Gray is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 2-3 (-2.6 units) this year after nine straight games vs. division rivals. - Colorado is 16-9 (+10 units) this year after three straight vs. a division rival. The verdict: I think these veteran starters are a “wash,” and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. That said, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, just to be safe! |
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06-28-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won’t be taking the Pirates for granted here. Milwaukee is 43-38 and second place in the division, but Pittsburgh is 38-41 in fourth, just five games back. Milwaukee is also just 5-10 since sweeping the Pirates here three weeks ago. Pittsburgh’s 8-7 since then, including a highly satisfying 10-0 victory at Houston just last night. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Pirates send Chris Archer (3-6, 5.56 ERA) to the hill, while the home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.88). These starters are a “wash,” but the difference comes in the stats/trends. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is still just 15-25 vs. teams with winning records this year. - Milwaukee is still 20-12 vs. the division. The verdict: It’s a classic “letdown” spot for Pittsburgh after its lop-sided win last night and I expect the Brewers to make the most of it. Lay the price! |
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06-28-19 | Indians v. Orioles +160 | 0-13 | Win | 160 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. The Indians’ go with Mike Clevinger (1-1, 2.70 ERA) tonight and he returns from the IL after missing a start with a sprained ankle, after just coming back from a back issue which had him benched for more than two months. The home side goes with John Means (6-4, 2.67) who also missed his last turn in the rotation as a cautionary measure because of a tender shoulder. Key Trend: - Cleveland is just 6-7 (-4 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think the door is open for the hungry home side to steal the opener of this four game series as Clevinger’s injury issues are a major concern. I like Means to take advantage of this situation. A great spot bet on Baltimore Friday night! |
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06-27-19 | A's v. Angels -152 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. Both teams come in hot after sweeping two game interleague series from their respective opponents. Tanner Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) though is in over his head here in my opinion in this difficult road venue. Anderson gave up three runs over four innings in a 5-3 loss to the Rays on Friday, while Angels’ starter Griffin Canning (2-4, 3.88) will face the A’s for a third time this month. He’s had one good start and one poor one vs. them so far, but I think the rookie takes advantage of familiar surroundings tonight. Key Trends: - Oakland is already just 9-12 (-4.6 units) after a win by two runs or less. - LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season. The verdict: Expect Canning to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on LA! |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers -172 v. Rockies | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers. Despite Coors Field being the great equalizer for pitchers, I still think that the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the road favorite. The visitors go with Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA), while the home side counters with Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85). Buehler has dominated this matchup throughout his career, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 appearances vs. the Rockies. Lambert allowed three runs over five innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Key Trends: - LA is 18-5 (+7.6 units) as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range this season. - Colorado is 4-10 (-4.9 units) in its last 14 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I like Buehler to continue his domination in this favorable matchup; lay the price! |
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06-27-19 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Nationals/Marlins. Stephen Strasburg (8-4, 3.79 ERA) has dominated the Marlins throughout his career. Miami has been shutdown at the plate over the first two games of this series, so it won’t be lacking for motivation as it tries to break the slide. It won’t be easy for the home side though with Sandy Alcantara (4-5, 3.51 ERA) on the mound, as he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 9.00 ERA in three starts vs. the Nationals. Key Trends: - The Nationals have seen the total go over in 11 of 15 already this season after two or more consecutive wins. - The Marlins have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge two straight home losses vs. an opponent. The verdict: I think the stage is set for an explosive finish to this series; play the over! |
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06-27-19 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rangers/Tigers. These teams played to a lower-scoring under yesterday, but I think the stage is set for more of a slug-fest in the finale. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’e now lost six straight after falling 4-1 to the Rangers yesterday. The home side hands the ball to Spencer Turnbull (3-7, 3.29 ERA), who is a poor 0-5 with a 4.89 ERA in nine starts in Detroit this year. The visitors counter with Ariel Jurado (4-3, 4.44), who has been shelled for 11 runs over his last nine innings of work, spanning two starts. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go over in 16 of its last 24 “day” games. - Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: A couple of confirmed “gas cans” going head to head, everything point to a slug-fest in the finale. Play the over! |
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06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. I had a play on the Phillies last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets hand the ball to Zach Wheeler (6-5, 4.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.55). Philadelphia now has a chance to sweep this four game series after erasing a 4-0 deficit to win late last night. Nola has been hit or miss this year, but he comes in with momentum and confidence as well after posting ten K’s and giving up two runs over eight innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to the Fish last time out. Wheeler comes in off a decent outing as well vs. the Cubs, allowing one run over seven innings, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - New York is now just 2-14 (-11 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 18-8 (+6.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Nola over Wheeler here; all things considered a very fair price on a very hot home team. Lay it! |
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06-26-19 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Rangers/Tigers. The home side turns to ace Matt Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA), who looks to bounce back after giving up three home runs in a loss to the Indians on Friday. Boyd though posted six K’s and he’s now recorded at least six in each of his past seven starts. The rangers look to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win by handing the ball to Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52) who is a sharp 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA on the road this year (Minor’s won back-to-back starts and has a tiny 1.93 ERA over his past four outings.) Key Trends: - The Rangers have seen the total go under the number in 18 of 23 already this season after two or more consecutive victories. - The Tigers have seen the total dip under in 25 of their last 40 following a loss. The verdict: I think these hungry starters battle deep; all signs point to the under as the savvy call in this one! |
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06-26-19 | Mets v. Phillies -129 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two games of this four game series and with a chance to clinch it tonight, I look for the hungry home side to deliver a third straight victory. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and while he was rocked by the Nationals’ in his last start, he’s still 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts since rejoining the rotation. The Phillies have hit eight home runs over the last two games, which doesn’t bode well for Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75) and the Mets’ bullpen, which has posted an atrocious 7.44 ERA in the month of June. Vargas comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over four innings. Key Trends: - New York is now a terrible 2-13 (-10 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 17-8 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to carry over on Wednesday night; lay the price! |
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06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rockies/Giants. Colorado won 2-0 on Monday and San Francisco won 4-2 on Tuesday. Runs have so far been hard to come by in this series, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The hungry Rockies hand the ball to German Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA), while the hungry Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija (4-6, 4.23). Marquez is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants, while Samrdzija is 5-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go over in 18 of its last 28 vs. the division. - The Rockies have seen the total soar over in 15 of 25 “day” games this season. - San Francisco has seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 31 at home. The verdict: I think these hungry teams combine to push this total over this tiny number; play the over! |
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06-25-19 | Reds v. Angels -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The Reds enter this two-game interleague series having lost two straight, while the Angels return home off a 6-5 road trip. LA hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (0-1, 5.68 ERA), who missed the first two months of the year. The struggling visitors go with Tyler Mahle (2-7, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season, especially on the road where he’s 0-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is interestingly just 1-5 (-4.3 units) this season after two consecutive losses by two runs or less to a division rival. - LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season. The verdict: No real advantage on the mound, but the Angels’ benefit from the home field; lay the price with confidence! |
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06-25-19 | Rays v. Twins -104 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The Rays Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) won the Cy Young award last year, but he’s been terrible this season. The home side hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18). Both teams had Monday off and each enters hungry for victories after scuffling stretches. Both starters were hit hard in their last outings and each has struggled against their respective opponent in the past. The difference comes in the numbers/trends today. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 14-16 (-4.7 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Minnesota is 29-17 (+11.1 units) in night games this year. - The Twins are 11-7 (+3.1 units) vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Snell’s been a disaster this season. I absolutely believe that Gibson at home is the correct call in this matchup. All things considered, this is a great price! |
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06-25-19 | Royals v. Indians -205 | 8-6 | Loss | -205 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a rain delay last night the Indians bounced back to take the series opener with the lowly Royals and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in this favorable matchup on the mound. I had a play on the Tribe in that one, part of my 6-1 Monday card. Cleveland has gone 15-6 in June thus far and it hands the ball to Shane Bieber (6-3, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Thursday. The visitors go with Glenn Sparkman (2-3, 3.62) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Thursday. Key Trends: - Note though that the Royals are a terrible 6-13 this season as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Additionally note that Cleveland is 8-2 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher. The verdict: Sparkman’s been decent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time vs. the surging Indians. Lay the price! |
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06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Tigers. The Rangers send veteran Jesse Chavez (2-2, 3.18 ERA) to the hill and he’s been efficient of late, posting a tiny 0.58 ERA over his past 21 appearances. Chavez faces a terrible Tigers team which has gone 8-27 since May 12th. The home side goes with Jordan Zimmermann (0-4, 6.03) who makes his second start since returning from injury. Zimmermann comes in with confidence here though as he’s 1-1 with a sharp 2.25 ERA in two career outings vs. the Rangers. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 19 this season as a -110 favorite or higher. - Detroit has seen the total go under in 13 of 20 this year following a loss by four runs or more. The verdict: Chavez and Zimmermann battle deep and this one sneaks under the posted number; play the under! |
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06-25-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies blew out the Mets yesterday and I like the home side to duplicate the effort with another blowout performance here as well. Philadelphia won’t be taking anything for granted here after having previously lost seven in a row. The home side goes with Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.12 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings vs. the Nationals on Wednesday. The visitors counter with Will Lockett, who was called up from Triple A to replace the injured Noah Syndergaard (Lockett gave up five runs off six hits over two innings in a loss to the Cubs.) Key Trends: - New York now just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 16-8 (+4.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Arrieta to easily out duel his over-matched counterpart and I look for the Phillies to build off yesterday’s break out performance at the plate. Lay the price! |
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06-24-19 | Rockies -130 v. Giants | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the Rockies and he’ll have a big opportunity to pad his win/loss record here vs. Giants’ volatile starter Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09). Pomeranz has allowed four or more runs in five of his last ten starts, including seven in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado has struggled vs. Pomeranz in the past, but that was then and this is now. Colorado comes in focused on the task at hand after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Key Trends: - Colorado is 15-5 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - San Fran is just 4-6 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I like Gray to easily out duel the “gas can” Pomeranz. Lay the short price! |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the D-Backs on the run-line. Yes, Zach Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA) has struggled vs. his former team, but he comes in on top form and I expect him to give Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85) everything he can handle. The Diamondbacks are three games under .500, while the Dodgers are 26 games over the .500 mark. Clearly Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Greinke. Key Trends: - Arizona is 9-4 (+5.2 units) this year after a win by two runs or less. - The Diamondbacks are a money-making 19-15 (+5.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the run line! |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -115 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are the “hungrier” team here after dropping eight of their last 13. Atlanta comes in complacent after winning 13 of its last 16, including overcoming a four-run deficit to win 4-3 in ten-innings vs. the Nationals on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) and Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13) are a “wash,” I simply feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Braves, while the Cubs clearly can’t take anything for granted after their scuffling stretch. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 7-9 this year as a road underdog. - Chicago is 23-12 as a home favorite this season. The verdict: All things considered a great price on the hungry home side. Lay it! |
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06-24-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Lucas Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) has been a bright spot for the White Sox this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Red Sox, who just lost two of three to the lowly Jays, counter with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (8-4. 4.71). Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime match ups vs. Chicago, while Giolito is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 6-9 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Boston is 9-4 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this year. The verdict: After their shoddy and disinterested performance vs. Toronto over the weekend, I expect the Red Sox to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence! |
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06-24-19 | Royals v. Indians -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a slow start to the 2019 campaign, the Tribe is rolling and I expect that momentum to carry over here in the opener of this three-game series. Cleveland is now seven games over .500 after posting a three-game sweep in two of its past three series. Cleveland won’t be taking anything for granted here either after KC posted a three-game sweep back on April 12th-14th. And that’s bade news for struggling Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3-9, 4.45 ERA), who is 0-4 over his past five starts, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the M’s on Wednesday. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.55), who gave up two runs in a no-decision to the Rangers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Kansas City is just 10-24 as a road dog this season. - The Royals are only 18-36 vs. right-handed starters this year. - Cleveland is 10-5 at home this year as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: I expect the home side to continue its hot run this favorable match up. Lay the price! |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Yanks. Aaron Sanchez (3-9, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year and since he’s returned from injury overall. He’s also struggled vs. the Yankees throughout his career. CC Sabathia (4-4, 4.14) though has had plenty of success vs. Toronto lifetime, going 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 match ups (Sabathia earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. Tampa on Wednesday.) The Jays took two of three from Boston over the weekend and look primed for a predictable letdown at the plate here in my opinion (note that slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0 for 5 on Sunday and he’s hitting only .246 with 20 RBI’s over his first 48 games.) Key Trends: - Toronto has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 vs. southpaws. - NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 this year as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I think Toronto takes a predictable step back offensively after its big series in Boston. This number is a little high, play the under! |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 10 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Phillies. Both Steven Matz (5-5, 4.28 ERA) and Zach Eflin (6-7, 2.83) have looked brilliant at times this year and pedestrian in others. Both the Mets and Phillies are in desperate need of victories and I think these teams will chase these suspect starters early. Philadelphia enters off a three game series loss vs. the lowly Marlins, while the Mets are just 37-41 after splitting a four-game series over the weekend with the Cubs, including a 5-3 loss yesterday. Eflin lost his second straight start last Wednesday, giving up three runs over six frames to the Nats. Matz also lost last Wednesday, getting shelled for five runs over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Braves. Key Trends: - Eflin is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Mets. - Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven starts vs. the Phillies. The verdict: The situation points to a “slug-fest” in the opener of this important series in my opinion, play the over! |
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06-23-19 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/Dodgers. The Rockies go with Antonio Senzatela (6-5, 5.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.87.) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Dodgers are now 5-0 in the season series vs. Colorado. Maeda has struggled a bit of late, but a date vs. the Rockies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 16 outings vs. them. Senzatela enters on top form, giving up one run over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks in his last trip to the hill. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher. - LA has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 as a -200 favorite or higher. The verdict: I think these starters battle into the latter frames; this number is high, play the under! |