Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The Celtics and Warriors were tied at two-all in this year's NBA Finals, with the Warriors having outscored the Celtics by just ONE point (422-421). Couldn't be any tighter, right? Well, maybe not, as no single game has been decided by fewer than 10 points! Game 5 was in San Francisco and the Warriors led by just one point entering the 4th quarter but would win 104-94 (yet another game decided by 10-points or more). Wiggins had a great game (26 & 13), despite going 0 of 6 from three-point range. Curry, the series' highest scorer, had only 16 points, while missing all NINE three-point attempts. The career three-point leader’s NBA-record streak of 132 straight postseason games with at least one three ended, along with his NBA-best run of 233 consecutive games with a three between regular season and playoffs combined. Tatum led Boston with 27 points (added 10 rebounds), while starting guards Brown and Smart combined for 38 points, while shooting poorly. The duo combined to make only 12 of 33 FGs (36.4%), including 3 of 11 on threes (27.3%).
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Game 5 Tiebreaker is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The Celtics and Warriors are tied at two-all in this year's NBA Finals, with the Warriors having outscored the Celtics by just ONE point (422-421). Couldn't be any tighter, right? Well, maybe not, as the fact remains that no single game has been decided by fewer than 10 points! Boston failed to take advantage of securing home court by dropping Game 4 on Friday. Curry delivered a 43-point performance, his third-highest scoring total in the postseason. The Warriors have won at least one road game for an NBA-record 27 consecutive playoff series since 2013, taking Game 4 by the score of 107-97. Golden St scored 17 of the game's last 20 points, as Boston's Jayson Tatum, who had 23 points and 11 rebounds, managed just one basket while playing the entire fourth quarter.
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner in on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The Boston Celtics entered this year's NBA Finals looking to win the franchise's 18th NBA championship, breaking a tie with the Lakers for the most in NBA history. Meanwhile, the Golden St Warriors were seeking their seventh NBA title (Warriors and Bulls are tied for third with six NBA titles apiece) playing in their SIXTH Finals in eight seasons. The Warriors began the series with their players owning a total of 123 games of Finals experience compared to the Celtics' ZERO! Plus, let's not even try to equate Boston's rookie coach Ime Udoka with Golden St's Steve Kerr. The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final 12 minutes of Game 1, after trailing by 15 points late in the third quarter. Boston delivered the most lopsided fourth quarter in NBA Finals history and came away with a 120-108. The Celtics went on a 48-18 run in the second half to decide the opener, but the Warriors didn’t wait that long in Game 2, going on a 43-14 burst from late in the first half until early in the fourth quarter to turn a tie game into an absolute runaway. Golden St outscored Boston 35-14 in the third quarter to turn a two-point halftime lead into a 23-point edge. The 107-88 win evened the NBA Finals at one-all. Jayson Tatum finished with 26 points in Game 3 plus starting guards Brown and Smart combined for 51 points to lift the Celtics to a 116-100 victory over the Warriors on Wednesday in Game 3. Tatum, who made just 3 of 17 FG attempts, has now put together back-to-back strong games. Brown had a line of 27-9-5 and Smart one of 24-7-5, after that duo had combined to make 6 of 23 shots (3 of 12 on threes) to total only 19 points in Game 2. Curry scored 31 points for the Warriors, but he was injured during a scramble for the ball when Celtics big man Al Horford landed on his leg. Curry was in pain on the floor and initially remained in the game with 4:07 to play. He was removed less than two minutes later when coach Steve Kerr decided the game was out of reach. Thompson scored 25 points, after averaging just 13.0 PPG in the first two games when he shot 10-33 from the floor, including 4 of 15 from three-point range. Wiggins was again solid (18 & 7) but Green was AWFUL (two points) and Looney was a non-factor (6 & 7). Poole had just 10 points off the bench plus EIGHT more Warriors got in the game, combining for only EIGHT points. Boston's Game 3 win Celtics, make them 7-0 following a loss this postseason but the Warriors enter Game 4 having gone 5-0 this postseason following a loss, outscoring their opponents by 15.4 PPG. Curry insists he'll play and there is little reason to doubt his claim (note: Curry is averaging 31.3 points in this series so far, shooting a sizzling 49% on three-pointers). Thompson had his best game of the Finals in Game 3 and I think we should expect another strong effort here. Then there is Green, the 'Great Disruptor!' He's been a 'no-show' in Games 1 and 3 and the Warriors can't afford that here in Game 4. Boston lost twice at home to the Bucks in the second round and twice to the Heat in the conference finals, so why can't (won't) the Warriors win in Boston. The Warriors have won road games at Denver, Memphis and Dallas this postseason least on, giving the franchise e road win in each of their last 26 playoff series, an NBA record. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Game 3 Tiebreaker is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals opened on June 2 in San Francisco with Boston owning this year's best postseason road record (7-2) but with Golden St being the only team yet to lose at home (9-0). The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final 12 minutes of Game 1, after trailing by 15 points late in the third quarter. Boston's Al Horford scored a team-high 26 points plus Brown (24 points) and reserve guard White (21 points) helped lead the Celtics in completing the most lopsided fourth quarter in NBA Finals history. All that despite Jayson Tatum, the team's leading scorer in the regular and the postseason, shooting 3 of 17 (note: he did have 13 assists, the most in any game of his career).
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the GS Warriors at 8:00 ET. The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final 12 minutes of Game 1, after trailing by 15 points late in the third quarter. Boston's Al Horford, who turned 26 on Friday, celebrated his birthday a day early by scoring a team-high 26 points. The Celtics rode Horford plus Brown (24 points) and reserve guard White (21 points) to complete the most lopsided fourth quarter in NBA Finals history (won 120-108). All this despite Jayson Tatum, the team's leading scorer in the regular and the postseason, shooting 3 of 17 (note: he did have 13 assists, the most in any game of his career). Curry led Golden St with 34 points, Wiggins had 20 points and Thompson a modest 15. However, Green shot just 2 of 12 (4 points / 11 rebounds / 5 assist) and Poole made only 2 of 7 shots for nine points. The Warriors small-ball lineup, one of the most feared in the NBA, just fell apart in the 4th quarter. It was not only Golden St's first home loss of this postseason (had opened 9-0) but the Warriors had won 13 straight playoff series openers at home, the third-longest streak in NBA history. Boston is now 8-2 away from home this postseason, including three wins at Miami in the Eastern Conference finals and a Game 6 victory at defending-champion Milwaukee that kept the Celtics alive in the conference semifinals. That said, Steve Kerr's team certainly doesn't envision falling behind 2-0 in the series. However, the collapse in Game 1 ramps up the importance of Sunday's game. "It's a different feeling," Kerr said. "Obviously you go into Game 2 with more of a sense of desperation." This is the Warriors' SIXTH trip to the NBA Finals in eight years, and Curry, Thompson and Green are hardly surrendering after one setback. "It's just nothing to panic about," Green said. "It's the first team to win four games, not the first to win one." I couldn't agree more. Golden St did EXACTLY what it wanted in Game 1, UNTIL the 4th quarter. Now, it's "put up or shut up" time. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Year is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The Celtics closed the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games to earn the East's No. 2 at 51-31 (won tiebreakers over Milwaukee and Philadelphia, which both finished 51-31, as well). Boston opened the playoffs with a 4-0 "revenge" sweep of Brooklyn but has then had its last two series "go the distance." The Celtics needed to win Game 6 in Milwaukee and then Game 7 at home to eliminate the defending NBA champion Bucks in the second round and then in the conference finals, lost Game 6 at home against the top-seeded Heat, before winning Game 7 in Miami. The Warriors had to play their final 12 games of the regular season without Curry but entered the playoffs on a five-game winning streak and as the West's No. 3 seed. Golden St made short work of Denver, taking the series 4-1 with the lone loss coming at Denver in Game 4, when the Nuggets avoided the sweep. Then came the second-seeded Grizzlies, who pushed the Warriors to six games. Dallas, not top-seeded Phoenix, was Golden St's opponent in the conference finals. That series went similarly to the team's opening round series vs Denver. The Warriors opened a 3-0 lead, lost Game 4 in Dallas (as the Mavs avoided a sweep), before closing out the series with a Game 5 win. The Celtics own 17 NBA titles, tied with the Lakers, for the most in NBA history. However, Boston's last championship came back in 2008 and its last appearance in the NBA Finals was in 2010. Boston had lost in its last FOUR visits to the Eastern Conference finals, before winning Sunday's Game 7 in Miami. Tatum (27.0-6.7-5.9) has had a terrific postseason so far, while Brown (22.9 & 6.8) has done his part. PG Smart, the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, had missed two games (midfoot sprain) but checks in averaging 15.5-4.5-6.2 in the playoffs. Center Al Horford (who turns 36 on Friday) has averaged 11.9 & 9.6 this postseason and will be playing in his first Finals after playing an NBA-record 141 playoff games without an appearance in the NBA Finals. The Warriors small-ball lineup of guards Stephen Curry (25.9-4.9-6.2), Klay Thompson (19.8 & 4.3) and Jordan Poole (18.4 & 4.5 APG) plus SF Andrew Wiggins (15.8 & 7.0) and PF Draymond Green (8.7-6.9-6.3) is one of the most feared in the NBA. However, don't overlook Golden State center Kevon Looney. He was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis, and he pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then started all five games against Dallas, averaging 10.6 & 10.6. Looney had 21 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2 for just his second career postseason double-double. Looney credits a lack of playing time with keeping him fresh for the playoffs. He played the fewest minutes in the NBA this season (1,732) among all players with 60 or more starts (he made 80). Boston has this year's best postseason road record (7-2) but Golden St is the only team yet to lose at home, going 9-0. The series could be determined by shooting percentages, as it pits the long-range marksmanship of Golden State's Curry and Klay Thompson against Boston's suffocating perimeter defense featuring Smart and Brown. The Warriors rank third in the NBA in the postseason in field-goal percentage (49.3 percent) and fourth in three-point percentage (37.9 percent). They'll be up against a Celtics defense that ranks second in both categories (43.3 percent and 31.7 percent, respectively). The Game 1 winner? I'm "all over" the Warriors, whose players enter the series with a total of 123 games of Finals experience compared to the Celtics' ZERO! Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Tiebreaker is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. The Miami Heat lost Games 4 and 5 in the Eastern Conference finals, getting held to just 82 and 80 points. However, with the Miami Heat facing elimination in Game 6 at Boston, the top-seeded Heat won 111-103. Jimmy Butler (26.9-7.3-4.8 this postseason), who had scored just 27 points over the previous three games, put on a show for the ages. He set a personal playoff high with 47 points and also contributed nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals. It Was his fourth, 40-point game of the 2022 playoffs and the second of this series (he had 41 in Game 1). Butler made just 7 of 32 shots in Games 4 and 5, totaling only 19 points. Starting guards Lowry (1 of 12) and Strus (0 of 16) had been just AWFUL in the back-to-back losses, but Lowry had 18 points and 10 assists in Game 6, while Strus had 13 points. Tatum (27.1-6.5-5.9 this postseason) had 30 & 9 in Game 6, while Brown (22.9 & 6.8) added 20-6-5. PG Smart (14.9-4.2-6.3), who has struggled with a midfoot sprain this postseason, had 14-4-3, making only 4 of 15 shots.
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. The Miami Heat (the East's No. 1 seed) took the floor in Boston for Game 4 with a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but return to Boston tonight for Game 6 on the brink of elimination. The Celtics routed the Heat 102-82 in Game 4 and then took a 3-2 lead in the series with another impressive win in Game 5 at Miami, 93-80. Both teams have dealt with nagging injuries but these last two games, the Mavs have gotten the worst of it plus have just simply been plain 'offensive' on that end of the court. Jimmy Butler, Miami's best player, has made just 7 of 32 shots in Games 4 and 5, totaling only 19 points. Starting guards Lowry (1 of 12) and Strus (0 of 16) have been just AWFUL in the back-to-back losses. To add insult to injury, NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (groin) has sat out the last two games with a groin injury. Boton's been led this postseason by Tatum (26.9-6.3-6.0), Brown (23.1 & 6.9), Smart (15.0-4.2-6.5) and the surprising play of veteran center Horford (12.9 & 9.3). The Celtics have to 'LOVE' the situation that they are in, but nobody associated with the Celtics is ready to celebrate. The franchise has lost in its last FOUR visits to the Eastern Conference finals and on two of the occasions, they have let a 3-2 lead slip away. The Celtics would love to close out the Heat here, avoiding a Game 7 in Miami, as the Warriors have already clinched the West and are waiting for an opponent in the NBA Finals, which will begin June 2. "It's an elimination game, to have it on our home court is an advantage," Boston head coach Ime Udoka said. "They beat us here already. So we have to come out with the same urgency after these last two wins and try to put it away. Miami has listed Lowry (left hamstring), Strus (right hamstring), Gabe Vincent (left hamstring) and P.J. Tucker (left knee) as questionable. That said, expect most if not all of them to play, plus Herro has been cleared to play. Then there is Jimmy Butler, who prior to the last two games, has been one of the 2022 NBA playoffs' best players. When is the last time you've seen a No. 1 seed as this kind of an underdog in the playoffs? I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. Boston's Tatum, who scored just 10 points in Game 3 (was 3 of 14 from the floor), rebounded to score 31 points but Jaylen Brown (off a career-best 40-point effort in Game 3) made just 5 of 20 shots for 12 points. Was Boston's defense the reason for Miami's poor shooting, or did Miami just 'stink out the joint?' Boston shot just 39.7% in Game 4, including 8 of 34 on three-pointers. Teams that shoot that poorly, rarely (if ever) win a game like that by 20 points. We won't know which players will be available until game-time but note that Miami was 7-0 SU at home this postseason, before losing Game 2 at home in this series. This morning, the Heat were listed as a home dog and it's noteworthy the Heat have been favored in 35 of their last 36 home games entering Wednesday, AND Miami is 4-1 outright as a home underdog this season. The Heat take a 3-2 lead with a "W' and it's "back to Boston" for Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Finals O/U Game of the Year is on G St/Dal Over at 9:00 ET. The Golden State Warriors have won NINE consecutive games in the Western Conference finals, after a 109-100 win over Dallas in Game 3. The Warriors haven't lost in the West finals since erasing a 3-2 deficit to Houston in 2018, when they won the last of their three titles in four years by beating Cleveland in the NBA Finals. Golden State swept Portland for a fifth consecutive trip to the Finals in 2019 before losing in six games to Toronto. The Warriors can make it an even 10 straight wins, eliminate Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks and return to the NBA Finals after three years away with a victory in Game 4 in Dallas on Tuesday night. Golden State looks to become the first team since Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls to make SIX trips to the NBA Finals over an eight-year. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry (27.1-5.1-5.9), Klay Thompson (19.5 & 4.6), Jordan Poole (18.9 & 4.4 APG), Andrew Wiggins (15.9 & 6.9) and Draymond Green (8.0-7.1-6.1) is one of the most feared in the NBA. Then there is Golden State big man Kevon Looney, who was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis. He pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dallas (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. In Game 3, he had 9 points and 12 rebounds. Doncic is averaging 32.1-9.5-6.2 this postseason, while Brunson has increased his scoring by almost a 'TD' more in the postseason (22.7 PPG) than he averaged in the regular season (16.3). Doncic has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games, but he NEEDS more help than just Brunson. In Game 3, Dallas' three other starters combined for only NINE points (Dinwiddie did have 26 off the bench). Key three-point specialists Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Reggie Bullock combined for just nine points (all of them from Finney-Smith), as Kleber and Bullock missed all 12 of their threes and all 15 of their shots overall. NO team has overcome an 0-3 'hole' to win an NBA seven-game series and Dallas won't be the first to do so. After all, the Warriors have been great at winning series in the Kerr era, capturing 20 of 22, losing only to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 Finals and to the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 Finals. That said, I just don't see Dallas going quietly. The Mavs scored 117 points (had 72 at the half) in Game 2 but scored just 87 points in Game 1 and only 100 in Game 3. Expect Doncic and his 'helpers' to put together a solid offensive effort in Game 4. The problem? The Warriors had 82 FG attempts in Games 1 and 2 plus 81 in Game 3 (talk about consistency). The Warriors are shooting 53.1% for the series, averaging 115.7 PPG. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics never led in Game 3 and trailed by as many as 26 points early in the second quarter. "We didn't match (their physicality) from the start," Boston head coach Ime Udoka said. "We got into complaining and let it take us out of our game. It's disappointing to come out that flat in a conference finals game.' Still, the Celtics had a chance to post a comeback victory before the Heat held them off down the stretch. Miami led by 13 with 6:30 left before Boston responded with 12 consecutive points to cut the Heat's lead to 93-92 with 2:40 to play. However, the Heat held on to win 109-103.
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Mavs at 8:0 ET. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green is one of the most feared in the NBA but Golden St has also dominated Dallas down low. The Warriors have outscored the Mavericks 106-62 in the paint while taking a 2-0 lead. Golden State big man Kevon Looney was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis and he pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dall (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. It was just his second career postseason double-double. Looney credits a lack of playing time with keeping him fresh for the playoffs. He played the fewest minutes in the NBA this season (1,732) among all players with 60 or more starts (he made 80).
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Game 3 Tie-Breaker is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. Boston lost Game 1 of its series with Miami 118-107, despite outscoring the Heat in THREE of the game's four quarters. However, that ONE quarter (third) was a 'killer!' Boston didn't make a field goal in the first six minutes of the third quarter, as Miami outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the third quarter and concluded it with a 39-14 advantage (Boston ended the quarter 2 of 15 from the floor!). Jimmy Butler had 17 of his 41 points in the third quarter. That said, I took Boston in Game 2, noting that the Celtics closed the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games, losing back-to-back games just ONCE. Here in the postseason, they had not lost back-to-back games in 12 playoff games. Boston was hopeful that Marcus Smart (mid-foot sprain) was going to play after missing Game 1 but Horford (virus-related issues) being able to play was a surprise AND a bonus. Boston trailed by 10 in the first quarter of Game 2 but then outscored Miami 60-21 over the next 18 minutes — a 39-point turnaround that wound up leading to a 70-45 halftime lead. Grant Williams checked into the game at at the 5 minute, 14 second mark of the first quarter and never left the floor over the final 17 minutes of the first half. The 127-102 victory sends the series back to Boston tied at one-all. Williams had 19 & 4, while Boston's "Big 3" did its job as well. Tatum had 27-5-5, Brown 24 & 8 plus Smart added 24-9-12. The Celtics shot 51.2% from the floor, including making 20 of 40 three-pointers. Butler had 29 for Miami but didn't get much help from his teammates. While Boston was making 20 three-pointers, Miami made just 10, on 34 attempts (29.4%). Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said the off day would be used to determine a response to the lopsided Game 2 result. "That's definitely part of the process in the playoffs," Spoelstra said. "You get to this point of the conference finals; you just have very good teams. You have teams without many weaknesses. It's great competition." Butler's had a terrific postseason, averaging 29.8-7.6-5.2 but 6th-man-of-the-year Herro (20.7 PPG in the regular season) and center Adebayo (19.1 & 10.1) have been hit-or-miss. Herro is averaging 13.9 PPG and Adebayo's numbers are off too, averaging 13.6 & 7.5. Noting all of the above, this point spread is too high in my opinion and I'll take Erik Spoelstra (he's led Miami to five NBA Finals!) over Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka on the sidelines. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics knew that they were going to play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals without Defensive POY Marcus Smart (15.0 & 6.2 APG this postseason) with a midfoot sprain) but big man Al Horford (13.0 & 9.4) was a late scratch. due to COVID-19 protocols. Boston got off to a strong start, with Tatum scoring 21 points in the first half and Robert Willaims playing for the first time since Game 3 vs Milwaukee (he wound up with 18 & 9). The Celtics led by EIGHT points at the half but then didn't make a field goal in the first six minutes of the third quarter. Miami outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the third quarter and concluded it with a 39-14 advantage (Boston ended the quarter 2 of 15 from the floor!).
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The Dallas Mavericks finished with ONE less win than the Golden St Warriors during the regular season which is why the Warriors own the home court advantage in the Western conference finals. However, it should be noted that the Mavs won THREE of the four regular season matchups between the two teams. The series' two stars are Doncic and Curry but note that Doncic outscored Curry in all four regular-season head-to-heads this season. In fact, their personal duel wasn't close, with the Doncic running up 26-14, 25-18, 34-27 and 41-21 scoring advantages. That said, this series is much more than a 'One-on-One' showdown between Doncic and Curry.
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. No teams have been in the East finals more than the Heat and Celtics, beginning in 2005.Miami will make its EIGHTH appearance in 18 seasons, while Boston will make its SEVENTH in the last 15. The top-seeded Heat have won SIX straight conference final appearances, (tied for the fourth-longest streak in NBA history), with two of those series victories coming against Boston (2012, 2020). Meanwhile, the second-seeded Celtics have lost FOUR straight Eastern Conference finals, including three in a four-season stretch from 2017-20. While the teams enter this series as the East's top-two seeds, they took different paths to reach that point. While the Heat battled at the top of the Eastern Conference season the entire season, the Celtics were just 24-25 through Jan 19, before closing the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games.
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the Pho Suns at 8:00 ET. The fact that the Suns owned the NBA's best record at 64-18, EIGHT games better than Memphis (owners of the 2nd-best mark) and 12 games better than the 4th-seed Mavs, means absolutely NOTHING at the moment. All the pressure is on the Phoenix Suns when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. The home team has won in the previous six games of the series (also covered), including Dallas staving off elimination in Game 6 with a 113-86 rout of the Suns. A loss here by the Suns would be a 'killer' for a team that made the NBA Finals last season and rolled through the current regular season. The situation allows the fourth-seeded Mavericks to play freely, while the Suns' play will be 'put under the microscope' if they were to be eliminated in the second round. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Game 7 Decider is on the Mil Bucks at 3:30 ET. Boston and Milwaukee both finished 51-31, two games behind Miami for the East's best record. However, the Celtics earned the No. 2 seed (Milwaukee settled for No. 3) due to tiebreakers. Milwaukee opened the series with a 101-89 Game 1 win (in Boston), with the Celtics bouncing back with 109-86 win in Game 2. That set a trend that continued all series, with the teams alternating wins and losses. Giannis Antetokounmpo poured in 44 points with 20 rebounds in a potential series-clincher on Friday for Milwaukee but he was upstaged by Jayson Tatum's 46 points plus a better performance from Tatum's supporting cast (brown had 2 points and Smart 21), than Gianinis got from his. The result? The 108-95 Boston road win set up this Game 7 in Boston.
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Celtics at 7:30 ET. Boston and Milwaukee both finished 51-31, two games behind Miami for the East's best record. However, the Celtics earned the No. 2 seed (Milwaukee settled for No. 3) due to tiebreakers. The teams were tied two-all in this second round series going into Wednesday's Game 5 in Boston (had alternated wins the first four games) and the defending champs kept that trend going with a comeback win. Boston turned a 71-68 edge into a 12-point lead and was up 93-79 with 10:19 to play. However, Milwaukee won the fourth quarter 33-21 to give them a 110-107 victory and a 3-2 series lead. It marked Boston's biggest blown lead in the playoffs in more than 25 years! The Bucks will get an opportunity on their home floor to close out at Celtics on Friday night. |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dal Mavs at 9:30 ET. The Phoenix Suns were easily the NBA's best team during the regular season but needed six games to eliminate No.8 New Orleans and now need to win Game 6 in Dallas (No. 4 seed) to avoid a Game 7. Despite the Suns' 110-80 win in Game 5, it has to be noted that the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS in this series. Dallas lost Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, as Doncic (combined 80 points) got very little help from his supporting cast and the Dallas defense (104.7 PPG allowed ranked 2nd during the regular season) could not slow down the Suns, who averaged 125.0 PPG. However, back in Dallas for Games 3 and 4, Doncic finally got some help and the Mavs controlled the Phoenix offense, holding the Suns to 97.5 PPG, as Dallas tied the series at two-all. The Suns outscored Dallas 33-14 in the third quarter of Game 5 to take a 22-point lead into the final quarter and won by 30! Booker scored 28 points (he's averaging 26.8-5.2-5.4 in the series), Ayton added 20 & 9 plus SF's Bridges and Johnson each had 14. Phoenix may just be worried about Chris Paul. He scored 47 points in Games 1 and 2 but was awful in Games 3 & 4 in Dallas (a total of 17 points) and was non-factor in Game 5's blowout win (3 of 8 for 7 points). Luka Doncic said his team never got its offense into gear in Game 5. He had 28 points and 11 rebounds on Tuesday and is averaging 32.0-9.6-7.4 in the series. Brunson added 21 points (he's averaged 22.3 PPG in the last three games, after averaging 11.0 PPG in the first two), as the backcourt combined for 49 points. However, the rest of the Mavericks totaled only 31 points on 8-of-31 shooting. Doncic's 'helpers' stepped up in Games 3 and 4 at home and I'm betting they do so again in Game 6. "When you talk about the playoffs it's about protecting home court," Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said. "It's hard to win on the road. So far, both teams have held serve. Now our goal is to hold serve in Game 6." See you Sunday in Phoenix! Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi 76ers at 7:00 ET. Miami is the East's No. 1 seed (53-29) and Philadelphia (51-31), which won just two fewer games than the Heat (but lost tiebreakers to both Boston and Milwaukee), settled for the No. 4 seed. Joel Embiid was a Most Valuable Player candidate all season but sat out the first two games, as Miami won 106-92 and 119-103. However, Embiid made a surprise return to play Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia. He's playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb and a face mask to protect an orbital fracture but helped Philly to 99-79 and 116-108 wins. Embiid had 42 points and 22 rebounds in the two wins and Harden had a terrific Game 4 with 31 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. However, back in Miami for Game 5, Embiid (17 & 5) looked tentative and also appeared to tweak his back. Harden managed only 14 points in 37 minutes and fellow guard Maxey, who averaged 23.0 PPG through the first four games, had just NINE points (2 of 10 shooting).
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mem Grizzlies at 9:30 ET. Grizzlies PG Ja Morant has a bone bruise in his right knee and is considered doubtful for the remainder of the playoffs, the team announced Tuesday. Morant will definitely miss his second straight contest tonight, when Memphis attempts to stave off elimination at home against Golden St (Warriors lead 3-1). There is NOTHING good about Morant NOT playing but the Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant this season. Memphis definitely missed his scoring down the stretch in a 101-98 loss in Game 4, as Memphis missed SIX of its final eight shots after leading by three with 2:32 remaining. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pho Suns at 10:00 ET. The Mavs fell behind 0-2 in this series for two reasons. The No. 1 reason was that they couldn't win with just Doncic (45 and 35 points) being a "one-man show," but reason No. 1-A was that a defense that ranked 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 104.7 PPG and one which held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG in the first round, was 'helpless against the Suns in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix. The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor! The Western Conference semifinal series between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks has followed a pattern.
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics 7:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston. Boston went 'quietly' against Brooklyn (lost 4-1) in the first-round last season and was seemingly going nowhere this season, with a 24-25 record back on the morning of January 27th. However, the Celtics would go 28-7 to finish the regular season and then served up a 4-0 'revenge' sweep over the Nets in the first round.
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05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pho Suns at 3:30 ET. The Mavs fell behind 0-2 in this series for two reasons. The No. 1 reason was that they couldn't win with just Doncic (45 and 35 points) being a "one-man show," but reason No. 1-A was that a defense that ranked 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 104.7 PPG and one which held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG, was 'helpless against the Suns in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix. The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor!
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 3:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston.
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Dal Mavs at 9:30 ET. With Doncic missing the first three games of its series against Utah, the Mavs were able to go 2-1 without him and then closed out the series by taking two of three games when he returned. More notably, after holding opponents to just 104.7 PPG on the season (2nd-best), the Mavs held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG. However, the Mavs have been unable to slow down Phoenix in the first two games of this series, The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor! |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Mavs at 10:00 ET. The Dallas Mavericks (No. 4 seed) and the Phoenix Suns (No. 1 seed) met in Game 1 on Monday of their second round series and while the final score landed 121-114, the contest wasn't as close as the final score indicated. Luka Doncic was terrific, scoring 45 points, adding 12 rebounds and handing out eight assists. However, Dallas never led at any point and trailed by as many as 21, before staging a frantic fourth-quarter comeback that made the score respectable. The major problem? Doncic was a "one-man band," as he scored more points by himself than the rest of the Mavericks' starters combined (just 39). In contrast, SIX Suns scored in double digits. All five starters did so, led by Ayton (25) and Booker (23). Ayton added eight rebounds and Booker just missed a triple-double, adding nine rebounds and eight assists. The sixth Sun to reach double digits was SF Cam Johnson, who chipped in 17 points. I took the Suns in Game 1 and noted that Jalen Brunson had scored 20-plus points in all six games, despite NEVER having had 20-plus points in more than TWO straight regular-season games. He averaged 38 minutes per game vs Utah and committed just FOUR turnovers. I added, "I find it hard to believe that Brunson can repeat that kind of effort against the NBA's best team." Good call! Brunson was just 6-of-16 from the floor, scoring 13 points. Fellow guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who averaged 15.3 PPG against Utah, had just eight in the opener. As for the Suns, let's note that Booker is struggling to regain his shooting stroke after missing three games in the first-round series against the New Orleans Pelicans due to a right hamstring injury. Booker had 23 points in Game 1 but was just 7-of-20 from the floor vs the Mavericks after having 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting in the final game against the Pelicans. I called Phoenix the NBA's best team but will note that the Suns almost blew a HUGE lead. The Suns led 106-85 with 8:48 remaining but the Mavs closed within five before Phoenix held off the Mavericks. In fact, the Suns were 8 of 8 from the FT line in the final 47.3 seconds to thwart the Dallas comeback bid. Doncic's 45 points raised his career playoff average to 33.4 points in just 17 games. He CAN'T do it alone, but his supporting cast almost HAS to play better in Game 2. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mem Grizzlies at 9:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors made FIVE consecutive NBA Finals appearances from 2015 to 2019, winning three. Now, after missing out on the playoffs in each of the last two postseasons, Golden St (No. 3 seed) is looking to make another postseason run. The Warriors took a 3-0 lead over Denver in the first round, lost Game 4, but then eliminated the Nuggets in Game 5. That set up a matchup with the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, who had a tough time in the first round against the Minnesota T-wolves. Memphis needed six games to put away Minnesota and the series featured THREE Memphis wins in which the Grizzlies overcame double-digit 4th-quarter deficits, setting an NBA playoff record. Game 1 of the series was Sunday and Memphis found itself on the "wrong side" of a comeback. The Grizzlies led by as many as 13 points in the second quarter and were up 61-55 at the half. The Grizzlies entered the 4th-quarter trailing 91-90 but led the NBA in the fourth with an average of 33 points and outscoring opponents by 10.3 points a game. However, on Sunday they could only match the Warriors point for point in the period. Neither team led by more than four points during the final five minutes, which featured four ties and two lead changes. Golden State's Gary Payton II made a layup to even the score at 114-114 with 1:35 remaining. Memphis quickly bounced back with an alley-oop dunk by Brandon Clarke that made it 116-114 in favor of the Grizzlies with 1:16 to go. Klay Thompson put Golden State on top for good on a three-pointer with 36.6 seconds remaining and there was no scoring after that. Jordan Poole exploded onto the postseason scene with 30 points as a starter in his playoff debut against Denver last month but was even better in his first postseason reserve role, scoring 31 points to go along with eight rebounds and nine assists. Curry had 24 points, Wiggins 17 & 8 and Thompson had 15. Ja Morant led Memphis with 34 points (also had 9 rebounds and 10 assists), while PF Jackson added 33 and 10. Bane, who led Memphis by averaging 23.5 PPG against Minnesota, made just 3 of 10 shots, while scoring just NINE points. In the end, Morant couldn't convert a buzzer-beating driving layup that could have flipped the final score in Memphis' favor. "I missed a layup I normally make all the time," Morant admitted after finishing with 10 assists and nine rebounds. "Onto the next (game)." That's head coach Taylor Jenkins' state of mind as well. he left the arena Sunday expecting the same type of rebound that saw his team win four of the next five games against Minnesota, after the T-wolves upset Memphis in Game 1 of that series. "Do what we've done all season," he said of the plan moving forward. "Rest. Recover. Watch the film. Get better and come out and compete hard (in Game 2)." Don't forget, Memphis was easily the NBA's best ATS team this season (52-29-1). Memphis lost Game 1 but did get the cover and I'll back them again in Game 2, expecting them to win outright and send this series back to San Francisco tied at one-all. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:00 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Pho Suns at 10:00 ET The Dallas Mavericks (No. 4 seed) visit the Phoenix Suns (No. 1 seed) for Game 1 on Monday night. Both teams overcame the absence of their young superstars in tough first-round matchups. The Mavericks ousted the fifth-seeded Utah Jazz and the Suns survived the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans, both winning in six games. Dallas was without Luca Doncic in the first three games of its series with a calf strain, while Phoenix saw Devin Booker leave Game 2 against the Pelicans with a hamstring strain, before returning in the Game 6 series-clincher in New Orleans. The Suns swept the season series 3-0 from the Mavericks, finishing with an NBA-best 68-14 record, 12 games better than the Mavs' 52-30 mark. Doncic returned to average 29.0-10.7-5.7 in Games 4 through 6 but I'd be remiss to not give a shout out to Jalen Brunson. The four-year vet from Villanova owns a career regular season line of 11.9-3.0-3.7 but averaged 27.8-4.8-4.2 against Utah. Brunson scored 20-plus points in all six games, despite NEVER having had 20-plus points in more than TWO straight regular-season games. Want more? He averaged 38 minutes per game and committed just FOUR turnovers. I find it hard to believe that Brunson can repeat that kind of effort against the NBA's best team. Phoenix head coach Monty Williams is convinced Booker's good health and that means he and Paul join a frontcourt of center Ayton, SF Bridges and veteran PF Crowder. Booker averaged 26.8-5.0-4.8 in the regular season, while in the playoffs, Paul has averaged 22.3 & 11.3 APG, Ayton 20.5 & 9.8, Bridges 17.3 & 4.5 and Crowder 7.5 & 3.5. SF Johnson has averaged 11.0 & 3.1 and backup center McGee, 8.3 & 3.7 in just 11 MPG. The Suns saw red-hot Boston lose Game 1 at home on Sunday (101-89!) and Memphis, owners of the NBA's second-best record, lose Game 1 at home against Golden St 117-116, blowing a double-digit first half lead. The Suns want NO part of giving Dallas a 'shot of confidence,' with a Game 1 win. Yes, the Suns are giving about a 'TDs' worth of points but I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mem Grizzlies at 3:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors made FIVE consecutive NBA Finals appearances from 2015 to 2019, winning three. Now, after missing out on the playoffs in each of the last two postseasons, Golden St (No. 3 seed) is hoping to make another postseason run. The Warriors took a 3-0 lead over Denver in the first round, lost Game 4 but then eliminated the Nuggets in Game. Up next will be the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, who had a tough time in the first round against the Minnesota T-wolves. Memphis needed six games to put away Minnesota and the series featured THREE Memphis wins in which the Grizzlies overcame double-digit 4th-quarter deficits, setting an NBA playoff record. Beating Minnesota marked the franchise's first playoff series win in SEVEN years.
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