05-19-21 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 220 |
Top |
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Golden State has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Steph Curry may get the most of the attention for this team but their defensive prowess has been under-appreciated. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. A slimmed-down Draymond Green has been a beast. And in the team has played better on the defensive end of the court after the season-ending injury to rookie James Wiseman as it has allowed head coach Steve Kerr to give more minutes to veterans who are better on defense. Golden State leads the league in Defensive Rating in their last 20 games which has fueled their late-season run. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. But the Lakers’ offense is not elite. They rank 24th in the league in Offensive Rating this season. Granted, those numbers include a large number of games where they did not have James and/or Davis. But their Offensive Rating with James on the court is 112.4 and 112.5 with Davis on the court — and both those numbers translate into just a 14th ranking in the league. Even at full strength, the Lakers’ offense is just middle-of-the-road. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State wants to avenge a 128-97 loss to the Lakers on March 15th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road avenging a same-season loss. Los Angeles held the Warriors to only 91 points in their 26-point win on February 28th. Defending Curry is not a new challenge for the Lakers. Even if he gets his points, Curry still needs his teammates to step up. Holding the Warriors to 97 and 91 points in their last two meetings is a testament to how effective the Lakers are in frustrating Curry’s ability to cook in the Golden State offense. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-21 |
Clippers v. Hornets UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
113-90 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-23) has won three of their last four games with their 115-96 victory at Toronto as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Charlotte (33-36) has lost three of their last four games after their 117-112 loss at home to Denver as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Clippers’ last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a win on the road. Tyron Lue’s team has tightened things up on defense as they prepare for the rigor of the postseason. They have held their last five opponents to just 101.2 Points-Per-Game on 44.0% shooting which is a significant improvement over tighter 107.8 PPG and 46.3% defensive numbers of the season. The Clippers rank seventh in Defensive Rating for the season but they are fifth-best in the NBA in their last five games. But Los Angeles is scoring just 108.4 PPG in their last five games which is -5.6 PPG below their season average. The Clippers have been an Under Machine nine straight games that finished Under the Total — but the knee-jerk contrarians should take note that they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games Under the Total. Team trends can often serve as the canary in the coal mine regarding a change in approach or effort by a team. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Hornets have lost two in a row, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they lost two in a row. Charlotte has played four straight games where at least 219 combined points were scored — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Charlotte is missing key pieces with Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges out with injuries -- that accounts for 32.0 PPG that they have been trying to replace. Additionally, the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 125-98 score on March 20th — and Charlotte has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-21 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 224.5 |
Top |
129-121 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-31) has won five of their last six games with their 130-124 win at Boston as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (35-33) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami raced out to 79 points in the first half on Sunday — and this rematch will likely be another track meet. Playing up-tempo basketball is what both head coaches are embracing with the postseason approaching. Erik Spoelstra likely thinks this style gives his team an edge given their deep bench. Finally healthy and having overcome the multiple COVID cases that slowed them down in the first half of the season, the Heat are scoring 121.8 PPG in their last five games while making 51.9% of their shots. Their opponents are scoring 116.2 PPG on 51.0% shooting during this span — but Miami is winning with this formula. The Heat have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. The Heat have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored overall — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics allowed Miami to make 57.3% of their shots — but a significant improvement on defense from this team is unlikely. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 125 points — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 130 points in their last contest. Boston has also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on their home court after allowing at least 120 points in their last one. Brad Stevens may have his team play up-tempo because he does not think his team can find success relying on their defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. To make matters worse, the Celtics’ lost their best or second-best defensive player in Jaylen Brown (Marcus Smart may still be a better defender, but the gap was narrowing) to a season-ending wrist injury. They have allowed their last five opponents to score 123.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting with Brown missing the last three of those games. But Boston is scoring 123.4 PPG in their last five games on 48.6% shooting with the offense centered around Jayson Tatum. The Celtics have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. Expect more of the same. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-21 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
110-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (31-33) has won two of their last three games after their 112-110 victory at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (34-33) has won two of their last three games after their 109-99 win at Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans shot 46.9% of their shots yesterday which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. They hit that number despite being without their top two offensive players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — and both players are not expected to play tonight with Williams out indefinitely with a finger injury and Ingram dealing with an ankle. New Orleans is making only 44.3% of their shots in their last five games as they deal with not having those two scorers. To compound matters, they will also be without Steven Adams in the post with their big man doubtful with a toe injury. The Pelicans have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. New Orleans has also played a decisive 49 of their last 77 road games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. And in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest, the Pelicans have played 6 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they begin a four-game homestand. They have played 34 of their last 48 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Grizzlies have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total when favored. They will be missing some of their scoring punch tonight with Grayson Allen out with an abdominal injury.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be looking to avenge a 144-113 loss at home to the Pelicans on February 16th — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. These two teams have also played 13 of their last 16 games in New Orleans Under the Total. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-21 |
Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
120-127 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (44-22) has won six of their last seven games with their 113-97 victory against New York as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (48-18) has won three straight games after their 126-94 win against San Antonio as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Denver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets are a different team without Jamal Murray who is out the season with his torn ACL — and the current injuries to point guard Monte Morris and shooting guard Will Barton have left head coach Michael Malone to rely on Argentinian Facundo Campazzo to handle the point guard duties. The 30-year-old rookie is not a dynamic scoring threat — he averaged 7.9 PPG in April in his 27.1 minutes per game before averaging 11.3 PPG in his three games so far in May. Denver made only 37.8% of their shots against the Knicks — and they are making just 45.5% of their shots in their last five games which have resulted in 109.4 PPG. Those marks are far below their 115.1 PPG scoring average and 48.5% offensive numbers for the season. But Campazzo gives the Nuggets a defensive presence they need. They held New York to just 38.4% shooting on Wednesday. Denver has held their last five opponents to 103.4 PPG on 44.7% shooting which is -6.3 PPG below their season average and over two percentage points better than their defensive field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Nuggets are sixth in the NBA in Offensive Rating — but they have dropped to 16th in their last 15 games and 18th in their last 10 games in Offensive Efficiency. On the other hand, while Denver ranks 11th in Defense Rating for the season, they improve to sixth in their last 15 games and fourth in their last 10 games in Defensive Efficiency. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Utah has played 15 of their last 19 games at home after a win by at least 20 points. The Jazz made 55.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Utah has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Jazz stay at home for their fourth straight game — they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three in a row at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They are undermanned on the offensive end tonight as well with Mike Conley out with his hamstring injury. Donovan Mitchell is out the year with an injured ankle. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jazz will be looking to avenge a 128-117 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point road favorite on January 31st — Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
94-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). THE SITUATION: The Lakers (37-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 93-89 upset win against Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. The Clippers (44-22) ended their three-game losing streak with a 105-100 victory at home against Toronto as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games — and this includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total after dropping three of four this season. The Lakers have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Lakers are the technical road team but they are playing on their shared home court with the Clippers at the Staples Center. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog at Staples. Additionally, the Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They will be missing two important pieces to their offensive attack with both LeBron James and Dennis Schroder out for this game. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers made 52% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. The Clippers did not cover the point spread against the Raptors in what was the fifth straight game where they did not meet point spread expectations. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least four straight games. The Clippers have also played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. They are only scoring 104.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting over their last five games which is almost 10 points lower than their 114.2 PPG scoring average for the season. They have played six straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. They have played 4 straight Unders at the Staples Center — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored at the Staples Center. The Clippers are without Serge Ibaka with his back injury and Amir Coffey who is in quarantine.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will be looking to avenge a 104-86 loss to the Clippers on April 4th. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Nets v. Mavs UNDER 235 |
|
109-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (43-23) has lost three in a row with their 124-118 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (37-28) has won four of their last five games with their 127-113 upset victory at Miami as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets made 48.8% of their shots in their second straight loss to the Bucks on Tuesday after also losing to them on Sunday. That was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Brooklyn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks return home where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total agains teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis who has been downgraded to out with his lingering knee issues. Dallas is also without Maxi Kleber who is out indefinitely with an Achilles. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-21 |
Spurs v. Jazz UNDER 218.5 |
|
94-126 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 5/5:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday was with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Utah Jazz. Utah (47-18) has won three of four after their 110-99 win against the Spurs as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. That game finished Under the 220 point total — the Jazz have now played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite. San Antonio (31-33) has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing at Utah against the Jazz. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NHL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month last night with the Edmonton-Vancouver Under to further their 8 of 12 (67%) NHL run and their 7 of 10 (70%) NHL TOTALS TEAR! Now Frank furthers his 13 of 20 (65%) NHL Game of the Month/Year run with ANOTHER OUTSTANDING O/U OPPORTUNITY with his 25* NHL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year for the Colorado-San Jose O/U winner at 9:38 PM ET! DO NOT MISS IT!
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05-01-21 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222 |
|
110-104 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). THE SITUATION: Denver (42-21) has won four in a row after their 121-111 win against Toronto as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (43-21) has lost two games in a row with their 109-101 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 31-12-2 in Denver’s last 45 games against teams with a winning record. They face a Clippers team making 48.2% of their shots this season — and the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are making at least 46% of their shots. Los Angeles made 51.8% of their shots on Wednesday in their loss to Phoenix which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Clippers are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games despite Wednesday’s effort — and that is resulting in them scoring -6.9 Points-Per-Game below their season average. Los Angeles has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after point spread loss. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 18-5-3 in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 43-19-2 in their last 64 meetings — and the Under is 24-8-1 in the last 33 games between these two teams when playing at the Staples Center. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-21 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 |
|
113-87 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). THE SITUATION: Golden State (31-32) has lost two in a row after their 126-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite. Houston (16-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 146-136 upset victory against Milwaukee as a 14.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets pulled the upset on the strength of their 50% shooting from the field which was tied for the best shooting mark in their last six games. They nailed 25 of their 46 (54%) of their 3-pointers — so expect the Regression Gods to appear tonight as they shoot closer to their 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home. The Under is 20-8-2 in Houston’s last 30 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last contest. They stay at home where the Under is 35-15-1 in their last 51 games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Golden State made 49.4% of their shots in a losing effort on Thursday which was the highest shooting mark in their last three games. The Warriors have also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when favored. Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are questionable with injuries. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Warriors have also played 34 of their last 56 games Under the Total with the number at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has won the last two meetings in this series by 108-94 and 125-109 scores. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from double-digit losses. 10* NBA Golden State-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-21 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 229 |
Top |
97-118 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-20) has won four games in a row with their 106-105 win at Portland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (29-30) has lost two of their last three games with their 118-114 upset loss at Washington as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They did outrebound the Trail Blazers by five boards — that was the fifth straight game where they won the rebounding battle by at least five rebounds. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outrebounding five straight opponents by at least five rebounds. This team has been playing better on defense even amidst the crushing season-ending injury to Jamal Murray. Over their last five games, Denver ranks 10th in the league in Defensive Rating — and improvement over their ranking of 15th in that metric for the season. Head coach Michael Malone needs Monte Morris to step up at guard to help Michael Porter, Jr. fill the void that the Murray injury created — but Morris is out with a hamstring injury that leaves the Nuggets’ thin in their backcourt. Denver stays on the road where they have played 7 straight Unders against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have also played 4 straight Unders on the road as a favorite. Golden State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have played 37 of their last 61 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the number in the 220s. Golden State is playing elite defense as of late. They have held their last five opponents to 43.8% shooting which has resulted in 108.6 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, the Warriors rank fourth in the NBA over their last five games and during their last ten games in Defensive Rating. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or greater — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-21 |
Pistons v. Spurs UNDER 216.5 |
|
91-106 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (18-41) has lost two of the last three games after their 127-117 loss at Dallas as a 10.5-point underdog yesterday. San Antonio (28-29) saw their two-game winning streak end yesterday in a 107-87 loss at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons lost last night despite making 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Under is 3-1-1 in Detroit’s last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also played a decisive 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. San Antonio allowed the Heat to make 47.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Spurs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in San Antonio Under the Total. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-21 |
Pelicans v. Magic OVER 221 |
|
135-100 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (553) and the Orlando Magic (554). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (25-33) has lost four games in a row after their 134-129 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Orlando (18-40) has lost three straight games with their 112-96 loss at Atlanta as a 12-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games after surrounding at least 125 points in their last contest. New Orleans has suffered four straight upset losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Pelicans have played two straight Overs while allowing at least 110 points in five straight games. New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. The Pelicans have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a favorite. New Orleans has also played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total when the favorite overall — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Magic shot only 39.5% from the field against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Atlanta to 41.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. Orlando has still allowed at least 112 points in three straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. The Magic return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Orlando has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. Furthermore, the Magic have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-110 upset loss at home to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite on April 1st — and they have played 12 of their 19 games Over the Total this season when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (553) and the Orlando Magic (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-17-21 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
114-119 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (28-28) has won four games in a row after their 119-101 win at Cleveland as a 6-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (30-26) has won five in a row with their 121-113 win at Los Angeles against the Lakers on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Warriors are playing their third game on the road since Monday — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing their third game on the road in five days. They made 51.1% of their shots in Cleveland on Thursday — but they are shooting just 44.9% this season on the road. Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total with the Total in the 220s. Boston has made 56.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. But the Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. And while the Celtics have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Boston returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Brad Stevens has this team playing better defense — they rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries may play a role in this game. Robert Williams III is out with a knee injury — and he is starting to gel with the Celtics’ Big Four starters. Jaylen Brown is now questionable with an illness. While Brown is an elite defender, those skills are not essential against the Warriors since Marcus Smart will be the primary defender on Stephen Curry. But if Brown does not play, then Draymond Green will defend Jayson Tatum without a “pick your poison” dilemma. These two teams have played 21 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Boston. The Warriors may be without Kelly Oubre who is questionable with a wrist. The Celtics won the last meeting at Golden State, 111-107, on February 2nd — and Golden State has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-21 |
Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 213 |
|
121-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (529) and the Los Angeles Lakers (530). THE SITUATION: Boston (29-26) has won four games in a row with their 116-115 win at Portland as a closing 1-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (34-21) has won two of their last three games after their 101-93 win at Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Boston has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics are the road favorite in this one — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their win against the Hornets finished well below the 206.5 point total, they have then played 23 of the last 33 games after playing their last game Under the Total. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, the Lakers return home for the first time since March 31st. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after being on the road for a least seven days. The Lakers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home as they continue to play without LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 96-95 loss at home to the Lakers on January 30th — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (529) and the Los Angeles Lakers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-13-21 |
Hawks v. Raptors OVER 224 |
|
108-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Toronto Raptors (572). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (29-25) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 105-101 upset win at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Toronto (21-33) has lost three of their last four games after their 102-96 loss at New York as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play despite both teams playing undermanned tonight. The Hawks are without a handful of players — and Trae Young is questionable with a calf injury. The Raptors are without Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. While these players are great offensive players, their play on the other end of the court tends to get dismissed. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset win on the road. The Hawks stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road as a favorite. Atlanta is scoring 115.6 PPG in their last five games while making 47.7% of their shots despite all their attrition — but they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots. The Over is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will be looking to avenge a 121-120 loss at home (in Florida) to the Hawks on March 11th. The Raptors have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. These two teams have played 5 straight Overs. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Toronto Raptors (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-10-21 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 |
|
109-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Houston (14-38) has lost six of their last seven games after their 126-109 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (24-28) has lost four of five after their 110-107 upset loss to Washington as a 4.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets allowed the Clippers to make 54.5% of their shots last night which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. Houston has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Rockets are dealing with several injuries — most notably Eric Gordon who is out with a groin and John Wall who is questionable with an ankle. That could leave Houston without two of their most reliable scorers. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Golden State has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a close loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Golden State stays at home where they are now 15-10 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as a favorite. The Warriors have also played 32 of their last 49 home games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is motivated to avenge a 108-94 loss at home to the Warriors on March 17th — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-05-21 |
Baylor v. Gonzaga OVER 159 |
|
86-70 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Baylor tends to play higher-scoring games because they emphasize shot volume. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Now they play a Gonzaga team much worse than the Cougars’ statistically in half-court defense. The Bulldogs allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bears have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total on a neutral court. And in their last 27 games as an underdog, Baylor has played 20 of these games Over the Total. Gonzaga has played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Zags have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Bulldogs have also played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in six straight games. The Zags lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.1%. Baylor does not play elite-level half-court defense either — they rank 113th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.7% while ranking outside the top-100 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting defense. The Bulldogs want to play fast under head coach Mark Few. They average just 14.3 seconds-per-possession which is the third quickest in the nation. Baylor is likely to be quite comfortable racing with the Zags as well with their four guards in the starting lineup. The Bears forego defensive rebounding for getting out in transition in fast breaks. Baylor allows their opponents to pull down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 280th in the nation. This means more second-chance scoring opportunities for Gonzaga who pull down a respectable 30.4% of their missed shots. This also means the Bears attempting to score fast in the 70% or so times they pull down the missed shot. This game should be up-and-down the court. The Bulldogs have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 39 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are familiar with Lucas Oil Stadium after playing there in the Final Four. Baylor should enter this game very confident after shooting 52.7% from the field while nailing 11 of 24 from downtown. And while Gonzaga made 58.7% of their shots on Saturday, I expect them to shoot better from behind the arc than their 7 of 21 effort against UCLA. I was less aggressive with Under plays during this Big Dance (unfortunately, in hindsight) because I assessed that teams would shoot better without big crowds in the arenas. The limited crowd will have little impact on the game tonight — I expect both these high-scoring teams to shoot well in this familiar environment. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-03-21 |
UCLA v. Gonzaga UNDER 146.5 |
|
90-93 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while UCLA has covered the points spread in all five of their NCAA Tournament games, they have then played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. Head coach Mick Cronin is going to do everything he can to keep this game in the 60s. His formula for success to pull upsets against Alabama and Michigan was to slow the games down and have his team take their chances in the final ten minutes of the second half. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Bulldogs are outscoring their opponents by +23.1 PPG, Gonzaga has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have won all four of their games in this Big Dance by at least 16 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. And while Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in four straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — UCLA has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. Even if the Bulldogs have a comfortable lead in the second half, head coach Mark Few will want to conserve the energy of his players for the National Championship Game on Monday. 10* CBB UCLA-Gonzaga CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-03-21 |
Houston v. Baylor UNDER 136 |
Top |
59-78 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars allowed the Beavers to make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Houston has still held their last five opponents — all teams either in or made the NCAA Tournament — to just 36.3% shooting which has translated into 55.4 PPG. The Cougars 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson will have his team play outstanding half-court defense. They lead the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 29.2% shooting from behind the arc and 42.9% inside the arc — those marks rank 11th and fifth in the nation. But shooting could be an issue for Sampson. They only made 32.3% of their shots against Oregon State — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not shooting better than 33% from the field. While Houston enjoyed a 17-point lead early in the second half, they only made 29% of their shots. Now the Cougars will be playing the best defense they have encountered all season. The best team Houston has played all season is Texas Tech — and they only rank 20th nationally by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Baylor made 48.4% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They raced out to a 46-28 lead in the first half on Tuesday — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Bears did allow Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven contests. Scott Drew’s team had struggled with their defense after a three-week hiatus due to a COVID outbreak — but they have been in top form again in the Big Dance. Baylor held their three previous NCAA Tournament teams to just 41.3% shooting and 56.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Sampson will likely play this game at a very slow pace — as it is, Houston averages 19.3 seconds-per-possession which is the 331st slowest pace in the nation. Baylor was lulled into a low-scoring game with Villanova — in their 62-51 win over the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, there were only 57 possessions in that game. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Cougars’ last 20 games on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when an underdog on a neutral court. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-21 |
Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 212 |
Top |
126-103 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (24-24) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 134-129 upset win in double-overtime at San Antonio as a 1-point underdog. New Orleans (21-26) had their two-game winning streak end last night in a 115-110 loss in overtime to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta held the Spurs to 44.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games under new head coach Nate McMillan. The Hawks have still allowed their last five opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which has resulted in 118.0 PPG for these opponents. Atlanta has allowed at least 108 points in six straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. The Hawks have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. Atlanta’s starters logged in 193:49 minutes last night — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the day before. The Hawks have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game on the road in five days. Atlanta has played four straight Overs heading into this game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Hawks conclude their eight-game road trip tonight — they have played straight games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. Atlanta has been hot with their shooting on this trip. They are making 49.8% of their shots in their last five games, which is generating 115.6 PPG. New Orleans only made 43.6% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also held the Magic to make 42.5% of their shots which is the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Pelicans’ five starters played 195:54 minutes last night — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in games when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the prior day. New Orleans has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team even under the guidance of a defensive head coach in Stan Van Gundy in his first year with the franchise. New Orleans ranks 28th with their Defensive Rating. The Pelicans have the seventh-best Offensive Rating in the league — and they are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games. They have scored at least 110 points in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. They stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball for tonight’s game as they are all dealing with injuries that has compelled Van Gundy to give them the night off after playing yesterday. The Pelicans have still played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored. This is a strong technical play. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-21 |
Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 225 |
|
113-108 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 3/31:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics. Dallas (24-21) snapped a two-game losing streak on Monday with their 127-106 win at Oklahoma City as an 11.5-point favorite. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Mavericks have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston (23-24) had their two-game losing streak end on Monday in a 115-109 upset loss to New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. The Celtics stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. They have also played 4 straight Unders when favored. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer looks to bounce-back from a 1-4 Tuesday in All-Sports (to fall to 6-6 in the last three days) — but he remains on an 81 of 133 (61%) All-Sports run over the last 37 days while maintaining a 59% WINNING CLIP in All-Sports since December 9th (240-165)! Frank is on an 8 of 11 (73%) NBA run — and he has tonight’s Mavericks-Celtics’ ATS winner on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank! Frank took it on the chin last night — including losing his 25* NHL play on the New Jersey-Boston Under — yet he remains on a 15 of 24 (63%) streak with his highest-rated 25* plays in All-Sports! Frank is on a 53 of 89 (60%) NHL run along with a 95 of 150 (63%) NHL Sides run of underdogs and favorites never priced better than -150 — and now he furthers his 5 of 6 (83%) NHL Game of the Month/Year sides mark with his 25* NHL Bailout Game of the Month! A metaphor for last night? — or if you want ONE MORE WINNER for March — BANK on Frank!
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03-30-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 137 |
|
51-49 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). THE SITUATION: UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have covered the point spread in all four of their Big Dance games — and they have then played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after they covered the point spread in four straight games. Their Sweet 16 game finished Over the Total only because of overtime — the score was tied at 65 at the end of regulation — and they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. There were times in their game with the Crimson Tide where they were stagnant on offense. They got back in the game when Alabama started taking them for granted. My “eye test” thinks Michigan will be a bit more disciplined with their half-court defense in stifling the UCLA attack. Now they play a Michigan team that has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3% — and the Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42%. The Wolverines make 48.5% of their shots including a 38.3% mark from behind the arc — and not only has UCLA played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots, but they have also played 4 straight Unders against teams who make at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Michigan has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Michigan has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-4-1 in the Wolverines’ last 14 games in the NCAA Tournament — and UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-21 |
USC v. Gonzaga OVER 153 |
|
66-85 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What convinced me that this situation was worthy of a 10* investment on the Over is when confirming Gonzaga’s effectiveness against zone defenses. Andy Enfield is likely to deploy the funky zone they have used at key times in this Big Dance. Yet the Zags average 1.313 Points-Per-Possession against zone defenses which is the second-highest mark. The top PPP against zone defenses is Cal-Baptist. USC played Cal-Baptist to open the season — they won 95-87 in overtime. Most importantly, the score was 79-79 after regulation — so that combined score was right around our number (and I have higher expectations for Gonzaga tonight). The Bulldogs are a juggernaut on offense who leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while averaging 91.8 PPG — and they are third in the nation in pace. They are averaging 89.3 PPG in the Big Dance. They have covered the point spread in all three of their NCAA Tournament games — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while the Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games, they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last two games. Gonzaga has also played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs are not elite in half-court defense either — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.2% is a solid 47th in the nation, but not impenetrable when talking about the final eight teams in the nation. USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit win over a Pac-12 opponent — the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Trojans have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. USC is red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They “dropped” to a 48.3% shooting percentage five games ago — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Trojans’ last 5 games on a neutral court. Gonzaga has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB USC-Gonzaga TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-21 |
Louisiana Tech v. Colorado State UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
76-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (23-8) lost in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament in an 84-62 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Colorado State (20-7) lost to Memphis yesterday by a 90-67 score as a 4.5-point underdog. This third-place consolation game is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Mississippi State Bulldogs to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. That mark was far above their opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.2% for the season. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Louisiana Tech ranks 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to ranking 30th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. However, the Bulldogs rank just 219th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their 96th rank in that metric when at home. The Under is 8-1-2 in Louisiana Tech’s last 11 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Colorado State allowed Memphis to make 55.7% of their shots yesterday which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. They caught a red-hot Memphis team who could not miss in the second half yesterday (one of the reasons I passed on the Tigers today). The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While the Rams rank 67th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 112th in offense when playing on the road. Colorado State has played 40 of their last 59 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games on a neutral court Under the Total when an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-21 |
Villanova v. Baylor OVER 140 |
Top |
51-62 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). THE SITUATION: Villanova (18-6) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats were hot from behind the arc against the Mean Green — they nailed 15 of their 30 shots from 3-point land. We had Villanova in both their NCAA Tournament games last week with the belief that Jay Wright would push the right buttons to keep his offense clicking even after the season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie. Wright has responded by running the offense through 6’9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who has averaged 20.0 PPG with 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this tournament. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are going to launch 3s as they play the role of spoiler — a rare role for this program under Wright. Villanova is 27th in the nation by attempting 45.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Wright will likely think his formula for success is to out-shoot the Bears since his team ranks 221st nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Baylor has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. But the play of Scott Drew’s defense remains a concern. The three-week COVID pause in February stunted the development of his team’s play on that end of the court. Since February 1st, the Bears rank 111th in Adjusted Net Defense which is a big drop-off from their 41st ranking overall this season in that metric. After not allowing more than 69 points in all eight of their Big 12 games before February 2nd, Baylor has surrendered at least 70 points in their next five conference games (and six of seven heading into the NCAA Tournament). The numbers have been better against Hartford and Wisconsin in the Big Dance, but that might speak more about those teams than the quality of the Bears’ defensive play. But Baylor will keep scoring — while five of their last ten opponents have shot at least 47.5% from the field, they have made at least 50.8% of their shots in five of those ten games. The Bears average 84.2 PPG behind an offense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor has played 12 of the last 14 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Big Dance — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-26-21 |
Hawks v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
124-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite. Golden State (22-23) has lost three in a row with their 141-119 loss at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks lost to the Kings despite making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Atlanta makes only 45.3% of their shots on the road. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Atlanta had been on an eight-game winning streak since they named Nate McMillan their head coach. He made an immediate impact in improving the play of the team’s defense after being elevated from an assistant coach for Lloyd Pierce. In the ten games under McMillan’s command, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating — a big improvement over their 18th ranking for the season. Over their last five games, Atlanta has held their opponents to 104.6 PPG on 44.4% shooting representing a -6.1 PPG improvement over the 110.7 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots last night — even without Stephen Curry — which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Warriors also allowed the Kings to make 59.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Golden State has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State remains without Curry who is out with a bruised tailbone. The Warriors are making only 44.6% of their shots in their last five games with the last three without Curry. They are scoring 108.8 PPG during that span which is -3.9 PPG below their season average. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Title as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home dog.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors were without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall last night with both out feeling ill after getting their COVID shot. They are questionable for tonight. The Hawks traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams yesterday but the high-scoring guard is not likely to be ready to play for his new team tonight. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Golden State. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-21 |
Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 137 |
Top |
72-65 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (22-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-61 upset victory against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog last Friday. Western Kentucky (21-7) has won four of their last five games after their 69-67 upset victory against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog last Wednesday. This NIT Quarterfinals game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs reached the Quarterfinals with their win against Ole Miss despite allowing them to make 40.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has held their last five opponents to just 38.4% shooting along with 61.6 PPG which is -2.9 PPG below their season average. They have allowed 61 and 54 points in the last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Bulldogs’ last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while that game finished above the 129.5 point total, Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The home/road splits are striking for this team. While they rank 93rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 236th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. And while they rank 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they skyrocket to ninth-best in defense when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Conference USA opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Western Kentucky outlasted the Gaels despite allowing them to make 48% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 17 games. The Hilltoppers have still held their last five opponents to 40.5% shooting which has resulted in just 62.4 PPG in their last five games which are -5.5 PPG below their season average. They are scoring only 66.0 PPG in these previous five games which are -7.0 PPG below their season average — a 41.4% shooting mark explains the decline. Western Kentucky have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Hilltoppers have also palled 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Additionally, Western Kentucky has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against conference foes — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Hilltoppers have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 63-58 loss at home to the Bulldogs on January 9th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-21 |
76ers v. Warriors UNDER 217 |
Top |
108-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (30-13) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 101-100 victory at New York as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State (22-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect a lower-scoring game between teams who are both dealing with missing key players. The 76ers are without both Joel Embiid and Seth Curry tonight as both battle knee injuries. Philly will miss Curry’s outside shooting. And the Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris-led Sixers are playing better on defense with Embiid on the shelf. The 76ers have held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting and just 101.8 PPG which is 7.9 PPG below what they are allowing for the season. Philadelphia has played four of their last five games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival. The Sixers have also played four straight games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Golden State was without Steph Curry on Saturday as he deals with a tailbone injury. The Warriors made only 34.4% of their shots against the Grizzlies without Curry. Curry is out again tonight — so Golden State lacks a reliable scorer. As it is, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State should have fresh legs for their defensive efforts tonight — they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Warriors have attempted at least 90 shots in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Head coach Steve Kerr does get some reinforcements back with Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall back from quarantine. Kerr needs the bigs — and this should help their interior defense while freeing up Draymond Green to defend either Harris or Simmons. Golden State may play at a slower pace tonight since they do not have to resort to up-tempo small-ball with all their bigs on the shelf. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-21 |
Maryland v. Alabama UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
77-96 |
Loss |
-111 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-13) has won two of their last three games after their 63-54 win against UConn as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (25-6) has won seven in a row with their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland Unders have been very for us over the last few weeks when the Terrapins have away from College Park. They offer the valuable combination of being undervalued on defense when playing on the road while being overvalued on offense. While Maryland ranked just 94th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to eighth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting even after Michigan torched them at a 51.7% clip in the Big Ten tournament. They rank 10th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 23rd ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 83rd in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.2 PPG on the road on 42.7% shooting which is -6.4 PPG below their season average. This foundation does not make us zombies to Maryland Unders moving forward — the circumstances warrant the play. The Terrapins continued to play tough defense by holding the Huskies on Saturday to just 32.3% shooting — that was the eleventh time this season they held an opponent under 60 points. But Maryland overachieved on offense by nailing 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They are due for some regression on that front. The Terrapins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Alabama made 47.2% of their shots in their win against the Gaels which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Even better, Nate Oats’ team shares the same identity as Maryland in that they play better defense but sees their offensive efficiency decline when playing on the road. Alabama is 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they are third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. But while the Tide are 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 60th nationally in that metric on the road where they make only 41.8% of their shots. The Crimson Tide’s defense is trending in the right direction after holding Iona to just 39.0 shooting. Alabama’s last five opponents are averaging 65.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. The Terrapins have also played 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-21 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas UNDER 140.5 |
|
66-68 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (18-10) has won four of their last six games after their 65-53 win against Utah State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Arkansas (23-6) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 85-68 win against Colgate as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arkansas plays at the 35th fastest tempo in the country when they have the basketball. And their full-court press helps them create a frantic pace to the pace game. But that will not likely have much success against this Red Raiders team that is 40th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.1% of their possessions — and that mark dropped to 15.6% in the Big 12. The Under also offers a strong technical play. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Red Raiders have played 5 straight games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Razorbacks rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored. Arkansas has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament 2nd Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-21 |
Syracuse v. West Virginia OVER 147 |
|
75-72 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (17-9) has won four of their last five games after their 78-62 win against San Diego State as a 3-point underdog on Friday. West Virginia (19-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 84-67 win against Morehead State as a 13-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Syracuse have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They held the Aztecs to just 35.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games. If you turn the sound on your TV on, all you hear from the CBS-TV basketball pundits is about how tough the Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is — and then bettors take the Under. Would it surprise you that the Orange have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court … even with their 2-3 matchup zone? Syracuse has also played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a dog on a neutral court. Syracuse’s defense is not nearly as good when playing from the Carrier Dome either. While they rank 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 189th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road -- and these teams are averaging 76.4 PPG. But the Orange offense improves on the road as well. While Syracuse ranks 60th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 14th in that metric on the road. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. This is one of head coach Bob Huggins’ better offensive teams in Morgantown — they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. But this is not one of his elite defensive teams. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to make 49.0% of their shots which has generated 77.0 PPG. The Mountaineers are scoring 79.6 PPG over that span. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Huggins’ teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total in the Big Dance overall. And in their last 19 games with the over/under in the 140s, the Mountaineers have played 15 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 19-6-1 in West Virginia’s last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Syracuse has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 20* CBB Syracuse-West Virginia CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-21 |
Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 |
Top |
63-54 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 79-66 win against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog last Friday. UConn (15-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 59-56 upset loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland allowed the Wolverines to make 51.7 % of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 14 games. The Terrapins were second in the Big Ten by allowing only 65.0 PPG on 40.9% shooting — so they should play better on that end of the court tonight. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten opponent. The Terrapins have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after what Michigan did to them. They rank 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UConn had played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. And while the Huskies had covered five games in a row before their upset loss to the Bluejays, they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. UConn led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 5th best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But UConn only makes 40% of their shots on the road which results in 67.7 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
86-80 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect this game to be a slog between two head coaches who prefer slow, grinding games at the core of their coaching DNA. The Bruins held the Beavers to 42.9% shooting in their overtime loss last week. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And while the Total was at 133 in their loss to Oregon State, UCLA has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Head coach Mick Cronin lost a piece on offense with Jalen Hill not playing in this tournament for personal reasons. He only scores 6.1 PPG but he crashes the offensive glass for the Bruins. Their leading scorer, Johnny Juzang, has not been at 100% after missing the USC game and playing only 24 minutes against the Beavers. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State (15-12) has played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Spartans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Michigan State has played six straight Unders under head coach Tom Izzo, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Spartans really miss Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of this shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State is scoring only 59.8 PPG with a 38.6% shooting percentage in their last five games. But the Spartans did see their scoring defense improve by more than 4 PPG in these last five games as they have held those opponents to 66.4 PPG. The Spartans do have the length with their guards to present problems for Bruins’ point guard Tyger Campbell. Michigan State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Spartans have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has played 4 straight NCAA Tournament games Under the Total in the Izzo era. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-21 |
Pacers v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 |
|
106-121 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 3/15:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut in the NBA on Monday is Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers and the Denver Nuggets. Indiana (17-20) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 122-111 upset win at Phoenix as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pacers’ last 5 games after a double-digit win. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road. Denver (22-16) saw their five-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 116-103 upset loss to Dallas as a 1-point favorite. The Nuggets have seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after a double-digit loss. The Over is also 24-9-1 in Denver’s last 34 games after a loss. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year yesterday on Ohio State to continue their 42 of 64 (66%) Basketball mark with their highest-rated 25* plays! Frank is on a 10 of 15 (67%) NBA run — and now he furthers his 33 of 48 (69%) NBA 25* run with his 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!
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03-13-21 |
New Mexico State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 126.5 |
Top |
56-74 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630) in the championship game in the Western Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (12-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 78-62 win against Utah Valley State as a 6-point favorite last night. Grand Canyon (16-6) has won three of their last four games with their 81-47 win against Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite last night. The WAC tournament is being played at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Mexico State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Aggies have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread when laying the points in two straight games. New Mexico State is improving on defense last in the season after holding the Wolverines to just 29.8% shooting last night. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.7% shooting which is limiting these foes to only 59.2 PPG. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Grand Canyon made 50% of their shots last night which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Antelopes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Grand Canyon is also playing their best defense of the season in March after holding Seattle to just 28.3% shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.8% shooting which has produced only 60.8 PPG. The Antelopes have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Grand Canyon has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Antelopes have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept the two games in the regular season — and New Mexico State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-21 |
North Texas v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 127.5 |
Top |
54-48 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-21 |
North Texas v. Old Dominion UNDER 128 |
Top |
61-55 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-21 |
Niagara v. Marist UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
67-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-21 |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Jackson State UNDER 126.5 |
Top |
62-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-21 |
Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
73-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-21 |
Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 161.5 |
Top |
90-88 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 122 |
Top |
49-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (15-9) advanced to the Semifinals of the MVC tournament yesterday with their 53-43 win against Evansville as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola-Illinois (22-4) won their fourth in a row yesterday with a 73-49 win against Southern Illinois as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ramblers scored more than 65 points for the first time since February 13th yesterday — it had been five straight games since they had topped that threshold. They made 47.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Loyola-Illinois is still making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which is generating just 60.4 PPG over that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days on the road. Loyola is an elite defensive team that has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home in true road games or on neutral courts — they are allowing 57.3 PPG on 40.1% shooting in those 13 games. They have not allowed more than 58 points in 16 straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. The Ramblers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Indiana State made 40.4% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. The Sycamores have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana State has played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day between games. They have held their last five opponents to 59.8 PPG. The Sycamores are 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 63rd when playing away from home. But while they rank 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 217th in their true road games or games played on a neutral court. Indiana State has played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams play at a slow pace — the Sycamores average 68.1 possessions-per-game away from home while the Ramblers average 65.8 possessions (319th nationally) away from home. The local Noon PM ET tip won’t help the shooting. And while Indiana State will be looking to avenge a 58-48 loss at home to Loyola on January 11th, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-21 |
Maryland v. Northwestern UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
55-60 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-10) has won five games in a row with their 73-55 win against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northwestern (7-14) snapped a 13-game losing streak last Thursday with a 67-59 upset win at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins made 48.8% of their shots against Sparty which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten foe. The final score finished below the 134 total — and the Terrapins have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is Maryland’s second game since February 21st — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight or more days. Head coach Mark Turgeon has his team sacrifice offense rebounds of getting back on defense — they rank 323rd in the nation by pulling down only 21.5% of their missed shots. The Terrapins have rebounded only three and six boards in each of their last two games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than nine offensive rebounds in two straight games. Maryland now goes back on the road where they have striking home/road splits. When playing at home, the Terrapins rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But when playing on the road, Maryland sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plumes to 104th in the nation — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency skyrockets to 15th best nationally. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. Turgeon has his team playing great defense — they have the sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. In their last five games, Maryland has held these opponents to 58.8 PPG on 35.9% shooting. The Terrapins have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Northwestern has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also played 31 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, Northwestern has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after beating a Big Ten foe. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 40.6% shooting. But while the Wildcats rank 88th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 157th nationally when playing at home. The Under is 15-5-1 in Northwestern’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats only made 42.2% of their shots in their upset win over the Gophers — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Northwestern is scoring only 62.0 PPG in their last five games on 40.1% shooting which is far below their 71.5 PPG and 43.7% marks for the season. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog — and Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-21 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State OVER 151 |
Top |
94-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654) in the Quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (9-11) snapped a five-game losing streak last Thursday in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament with their 84-72 win against IUPUI as a 4-point favorite. Wright State (18-5) plays for the first time since February 20th when they won at Northern Kentucky, 77-71, as a 9-point favorite. The Raiders host this tournament game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phoenix have played eight straight Overs after their win in the Horizon League tournament last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Phoenix are playing definitively better on offense. While they rank 200th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they climb to 144th nationally when assessing their performance in their last ten games. They are scoring 83.4 PPG over their last five contests which is +8.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also allowing 85.6 PPG in these last five games which are +9.9 PPG above their season defensive average. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Wright State has played 26 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in at least two straight. I did have initial concerns about the Raiders’ long layoff — but they probably will not shoot worse than the 43.5% clip they managed against the Norse in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Wright State may be cold in the first half — but don’t give up on the Over until this one is over! The Raiders will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they pull down 34.3% of their missed shots which is the 25th best mark in the nation. This is a great shooting team — they make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, 35th nationally, and 53.8% of their shots inside the arc, 45th nationally — and playing on their familiar home court without a full house should help them get back into rhythm. I am playing more Overs this season without fans in the stands — and they are playing a Phoenix team that ranks 321st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Let’s trust the Horizon League’s second-most efficient offense to figure it out — and they will have fresh legs. Wright State has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number in the 150s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Defense has been a concern as of late — they are allowing 74.4 PPG on 45.0% shooting in their last five games which is well above the 66.3 PPG and 40.0% they allow for the season.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 92-82 loss at Wright State on February 13th — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The Phoenix has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 225 |
Top |
118-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). THE SITUATION: Denver (18-15) has won two of their last three games with their 126-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (15-17) had their three game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 106-97 loss at home to Phoenix as 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best game on defense in their last eight contests by holding the Thunder to just 42.0% shooting from the field. They are still allowing their home hosts to make 48.2% of their baskets which is resulting in 111.6 PPG. But Jamal Murray has been finding some of the form he enjoyed in the bubble when he led Denver to the Western Conference Finals. He scored 26 points on Saturday — and he is averaging 30.1 PPG in his last nine games. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets have also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Denver is scoring 116.4 PPG over their last five games on 49.6% shooting. They have scored at least 110 points in six straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Denver has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Chicago shot 49.4% from the field on Friday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Over their last five contests, the Bulls are making 52.7% of their shots which is generating 115.4 PPG in first-year head coach Billy Donovan’s up-tempo offense. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They stay at home where they are allowing their guests to score 114.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Western Conference foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games played in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Suns v. Wolves OVER 224.5 |
Top |
118-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-11) has won four of their last five games with their 106-97 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (7-27) has lost seven games in a row with their 128-112 loss at Washington as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 50% of their shots on Friday yet it was the lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. This Phoenix offense is clicking — they are averaging 123.8 PPG over their last five contests on 52.5% shooting. The Suns have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Phoenix has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Suns have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two in a row against Eastern Conference opponents, Phoenix has played 17 of these games Over the Total. This is the Suns’ sixth game since February 19th — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their sixth or more game in a ten-day span. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. The Timberwolves have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. New head coach Chris Finch will likely want to address the play of his defense but he lacks short-term fixes. The T-Wolves have allowed their last five opponents to score 117.8 PPG on 47.0% shooting. Playing without a day off certainly will not help — and Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. After being on the road for four straight games, they return home for the first time since February 19th — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Timberwolves have also played 27 of their last 40 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Over the Total. Phoenix should approach 120 points in this one which should carry the final score into the high 220s (or more). 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 136.5 |
Top |
89-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (12-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-71 loss at South Dakota yesterday. South Dakota (13-9) has now won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 40.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They did nail 10 shots from behind the arc after making 11 shots from 3-point range in their previous game against South Dakota State — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after making at least 10 shots from 3-point range in two straight contests. They should shoot better this afternoon playing in the same gym for the second-straight day. As it is, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, North Dakota State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite of up to 3 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. South Dakota has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Coyotes’ 47.2% shooting percentage was their lowest in three games — so they should shoot as well or better. But holding the Bison to 40.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. South Dakota has now played 4 straight games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Coyotes average 83.0 PPG on their home court on 52.0% shooting. But their defense is faltering as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.3% of their shots which is generating 82.8 PPG. South Dakota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Troy State UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (13-6) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday in a 65-55 win against Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite. Troy (10-14) has lost five in a row after their 65-53 loss at Georgia State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Coastal Carolina has played six straight Unders — and not only have they played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. The Chanticleers have the second-best defense in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 37.1% shooting from the field — as compared to their 67.0 PPG and 39.2% opponent’s offensive marks for the season. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.8% of their shots. Coastal Carolina has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Chanticleers have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Troy has also played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They return home where they have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Sun Belt play. They hold their guests to 36.7% on their home court which is resulting in only 59.7 PPG. The Trojans only hit 41.6% of their shots at home. Troy has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Trojans can struggle to score — they are averaging only 60.8 PPG on 39.7% shooting in their last five games. Troy has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Troy will be playing with revenge from a 70-65 loss at Coastal Carolina on January 23rd as a 10-point underdog. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. Troy also lost the January 22nd meeting between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-21 |
Western Kentucky v. Houston UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
57-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-21 |
Syracuse v. Duke OVER 148 |
Top |
71-85 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-6) has won three in a row with their 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (10-8) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orange only made 43.5% of their shots against the Fighting Irish but still rallied from a 20-point deficit to win that game. Syracuse has then played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s team does not fit his typical profile — they are much better on offense than they are on defense. The Orange ranks 38th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 29th nationally in this metric when playing on the road. Yet Syracuse is only 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 186th in the nation in this metric when playing away from home. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is not working this season — and it remains as vulnerable as ever to offensive rebounding with the open space around the rim it leaves vulnerable. Not only do the Orange allow their opponents to pull down 31.1% of their missed shots, 279th nationally, but home teams are getting second-chance scoring opportunities in a whopping 37.5% of their missed shots which is 340th in the nation. Syracuse has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They are allowing 78.0 PPG when playing on the road. And while the Orange have played three straight Unders, the Orange have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, Syracuse has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 straight home games Over the Total after a win against an ACC rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Blue Devils shot 51.0% from the field against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Duke is averaging 79.0 PPG over their last five games on 52.5% shooting over that span — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. While the Blue Devils have been pilloried for being one of the blue blood programs suffering a down season, they have under the radar regarding how good they are on offense. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 10th in the nation in that metric over their last ten games to demonstrate they do not miss freshman Jalen Johnson who left the team. But Duke struggles on the end of the court as they rank just 135th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 26 home games including eight of their last ten home games finishing Over the Total. Duke has also played 7 straight games Over the Total at home against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Blue Devils pound the offensive glass as well to take advantage of their missed shots against the Boeheim 2-3 zone — they rebound 33.6% of their missed shots at home, 67th nationally. Duke has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number in the 140s — and the Orange has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas OVER 145.5 |
Top |
84-82 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (14-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 91-90 upset loss in double-overtime against Oklahoma as a 4-point favorite. Texas (13-5) has won two games in a row after their 70-55 win against TCU as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made only 42.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 85 points. The Mountaineers have played six straight Overs while scoring at least 82 points in three straight games. They have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. West Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last eight days. The Mountaineers tend to play higher-scoring games because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They are 10th in the nation by rebounding 36.2% of their missed shots. They are also 30th nationally by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. In their last five games, the Mountaineers are scoring 83.8 PPG. But they have also allowed their last five opponents to make 45.4% of their shots which is generating 79.6 PPG. West Virginia ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which would make them one of head coach Bob Huggins’ best offensive teams in his career. But he has had many better teams on the defensive end of the court — this group ranks only 64th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Mountaineers have played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number in the 140s. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. The Longhorns are an excellent defensive team who ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But COVID pauses and now ice storms and power outages may be taking their toll on Shaka Smart’s team. While they hold their opponents to 67.6 PPG on 40.5% shooting, their last five opponents have made 44.6% of their shots which is generating 74.0 PPG. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 6 points. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Texas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 9th when they upset West Virginia in Morgantown by a 1.5-point underdog. The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-21 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 227.5 |
Top |
105-112 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-15) won their third game in their last four contests on Wednesday with their 105-102 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (19-10) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 118-113 win against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was fourth straight games for the Bulls where they scored at least 105 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least three straight games. Chicago is seeing an average of 230 combined points scored in their games this season under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They go back on the road where they are scoring 118.7 PPG on 49.2% shooting. They are also allowing their home hosts score 116.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. Additionally, Chicago has played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Bulls have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a dog overall — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia shot 48.1% from the field on Wednesday which was tied for the lowest shooting effort in their last nine games. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They did not have Ben Simmons against the Rockets who missed the game because of an illness — but he should be back on the court tonight. Philly stays at home where they make 49.5% of their shots en route to 118.4 PPG. They allow their guests to score 112.4 PPG. The Sixers have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 29 home games Over the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: UPDATE: Simmons is not playing tonight due to the illness that has dogged him this week (despite having the “probable” listing). No big deal (and this possibility is why I liked the Over versus a potential Philly side play) — the Over is still a strong technical play and what the Sixers lose with his offense, they also lose his elite defensive talents tonight which should ensure the Bulls approach their road scoring average. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-21 |
Vermont v. Maryland-Baltimore County UNDER 135 |
Top |
80-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). THE SITUATION: Vermont (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 61-57 win against Stony Brook on Sunday. UMBC (13-4) has won three in a row with their 60-48 win at Stony Brook back on February 8th as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vermont held Stony Brook to just 32% shooting — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 33% or less shooting in their last game. The Catamounts are 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. Vermont has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Catamounts have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Vermont goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. The Catamounts have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, Vermont has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range. The Catamounts should see their stout defense of late travel — they have held their last five opponents to just 53.8 PPG on 31.8% shooting from the field. UMBC held Stony Brook to 32.0% shooting in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33%. Additionally, the Retrievers have played 5 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. UMBC is also playing outstanding defense right now — they have held their last five opponents to just 60.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting. The Retrievers rank 17th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. But will UMBC be rusty with their shooting playing their first game in ten days? They are only making 42.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Retrievers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. UMBC has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Retrievers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Vermont has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB America East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-21 |
UAB v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 135 |
Top |
58-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). THE SITUATION: UAB (16-2) has won six straight games with their 75-60 win against UTEP as an 8.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (15-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 57-55 loss at North Texas as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers made 53.8% of their shots last Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. UAB has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Blazers have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They are likely going to not shoot as well tonight as they did against the Miners — their 45.2% effective field goal percentage when playing on the road, 287th in the nation. They make only 41.5% of their shots on the road which translates into just 62.7 PPG. But UAB holds their home hosts to only 56.7 PPG on 41.4% shooting. The Blazers rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 23rd in the nation in true road games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s — including playing Unders in six of these last seven games. Louisiana Tech has played a decisive 51 of their last 82 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. This is the Bulldogs’ second game since last Friday — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in the last seven days. Louisiana Tech has not allowed more than 63 points in five straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least three straight games. They have held their last five opponents to just 60.0 PPG on 39.9% shooting from the field. But they are scoring only 67.4 PPG in these previous five games. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a favorite of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Under is 7-2-1 in UAB’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60%. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Heat v. Rockets UNDER 215 |
|
101-94 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the Houston Rockets (536). THE SITUATION: Miami (10-14) has won three games in a row with their 98-96 win against New York as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Houston (11-13) has lost three in a row after their 130-101 loss at New Orleans on Tuesday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets allowed the Pelicans to nail 51.1% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. Houston has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Rockets have allowed at least 111 points in their last three games — but they have then played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in each of their last three games. Additionally, the Under is 37-18-2 in Houston’s last 57 games after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total as an underdog including four of these last five home games Under the Total when getting the points. Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while they were called for 11 fewer fouls than the 25 personal fouls that the Knicks were called for on Tuesday, they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total when playing on the road after a game where they were called for at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent. Getting healthy has helped head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team start playing better defense — they have held their last five opponents to just 42.3% shooting which is resulting in just 105.2 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference foes.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the Houston Rockets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech OVER 140.5 |
Top |
82-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-5) has won four of their last five games after their 91-79 win against Kansas on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Texas Tech (14-5) has won three in a row with their 73-62 victory at Kansas State as a 15.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. Additionally, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Mountaineers shot 50% from the field on Saturday which initially gave me pause that it was an outlier performance. But this is one of Bob Huggins’ best shooting teams in his career — they are second in the Big 12 by making 42.9% of their 3-pointers. They are making 46.7% of their shots over their last five games which is resulting in an 80.8 PPG scoring average. Huggins also deploys a style of play that generates more scoring opportunities even if their shots are not falling. West Virginia pulls down 36.1% of their missed shots, 10th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 4 straight games on the road with the number in the 140 to 149.5 range. Furthermore, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total. Texas Tech has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Red Raiders have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Texas Tech made 47.1% of their shots on Saturday — the best shooting effort in their last six games. Again, that gave me an initial pause. Yet the Red Raiders only scored 30 points in the first half in that game after scoring a mere 25 points in their previous game against Oklahoma. Texas Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. And the Red Raiders’ defensive play has not been quite as stingy as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 44.1% of their shots resulting in 68.2 PPG which is a sharp uptick from the 61.7 PPG they allow on 40.5% shooting for the season. Texas Tech has allowed their last two opponents to score just 52 and 62 points — but they have then played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Red Raiders also create a bench of additional scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are 24th in the nation by pulling down 34.7% of their missed shots. They are seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. And head coach Chris Beard’s team is 14th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Over Total when favored — and 3 of their 4 games this season against teams winning 60 to 80% of their games finished Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Raiders will be looking to avenge an 88-87 loss to the Mountaineers in Morgantown on January 25th. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-21 |
Heat v. Knicks UNDER 208 |
|
109-103 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the New York Knicks (536). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-14) enters this game coming off a 122-95 win against Washington as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. New York (11-13) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their 110-99 upset win against Portland as a 1.5-point underdog yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat made 49.4% of their shots on Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Miami has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Additionally, the Heat have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. This is Miami’s eighth game in the last 14 days — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their eighth or more game in the last 14 days. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 games against teams with a losing record. They will once again be without Goran Dragic who is out with an ankle injury. New York has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after an upset win by double-digits as a home underdog. The Knicks shot 50% from the field yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 16 games. But New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Knicks stay at home at Madison Square Garden where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and the Under is 13-4-1 in New York’s last 18 home games when they are an underdog getting up to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 25-12-2 in the last 39 games between these two Pat Riley legacy teams — and 17 of the last 21 meetings between these clubs in New York have finished Under the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the New York Knicks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
NC State v. Boston College OVER 146 |
Top |
81-65 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). THE SITUATION: NC State (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 65-57 loss at home to Virginia on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. Boston College (3-10) has lost five of their last six games with their 80-70 loss at Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State made only 43.4% of their shots against the tough Cavaliers’ defense on Wednesday — that was the worst offensive effort in their last five games. They did get 23 points from Jericole Hellems. The junior has averaged 23.5 PPG in his last two games taking over the role as the team’s go-to scorer after the season-ending ACL injury to Devon Daniels on January 28th in the game against Wake Forest. Daniels was averaging 16.5 PPG. D.J. Funderburk also scored 9 points in 17 minutes of play after not playing in the previous game at Syracuse for an undisclosed university issue. Head coach Kevin Keatts’ team should still generate plenty of offense even without Daniels. They rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They generate offense from their defense — they are 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Eagles who are 188th in the country with a 19.5% turnover rate. NC State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 6 straight games on the road after losing at least three of their last four games. But defense is also an issue for Keatts’ team as they rank 14th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolfpack go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots which is translating into 80.0 PPG. They have played 7 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s. NC State has also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 52.5% from the field and 79.6 PPG. Boston College has not played in about three weeks — they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest. The Eagles may be rusty with their shooting — but they are going to play at a fast pace with fresh legs. Boston College is second in the ACC in tempo — and the defensive pressure from the Wolfpack will contribute to a frenetic pace. NC State allows their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots for the season — and the Eagles have played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Boston College has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Defense is an issue for Jim Christian’s team as well as they rank 315th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage while allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc, 313th in the nation. The Eagles return home where their defense does not improve much as they allow their guests to generate an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, 301st in the country, by allowing these visitors to make 52.7% of their 2-pointers and 36.9% of their 3-pointers. Boston College has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total with the number set at 145 to 149.5.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 20 to 40% range. It may be sloppy — but expect a fast pace between these two teams with suspect defenses. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Washington v. Oregon State OVER 141.5 |
Top |
71-91 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-12) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 77-62 upset loss at home to Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite. Oregon State (8-7) has lost their last two games with their 57-52 loss at UCLA as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made only 38.2% of their shots against the Cougars which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Huskies have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The defense for head coach Mike Hopkins’ team has been the bigger issue this season — the 77 points they allowed against Washington State was actually the fewest in their last nine games. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. Over their last five games, Washington is scoring 74.6 PPG — but they are allowing 82.4 PPG with those five opponents making 46.9% of their shots. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-8 this season. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots which translates into 82.7 PPG. Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple with his using the 2-3 zone defense that he has made a staple at Syracuse. Defensive rebounding is a weakness with that scheme — and the Huskies are allowing their opponents to rebound 39.1% of their missed shots which is 304th worst in the nation. But the 2-3 zone is intended to force ill-advised outside shots — yet Washington is seeing their home hosts nail 39.7% of their 3-pointers which is 343rd in the nation. The Huskies have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog. Oregon State should take advantage of both these vulnerabilities. The Beavers pull down a healthy 29.0% of their shots on the offensive glass — and they make 35.4% of their 3-pointers at home. Oregon State has also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Beavers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 55 points in their last contest. Oregon State did hold the Bruins to just 32.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last thirteen games. The Beavers return home where they are 7-4 while scoring 75.5 PPG. Oregon State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Beavers have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Oregon State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. And in their last 18 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Beavers have played 13 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies allow 77.3 PPG — and Oregon State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who allow at least 77 PPG. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-21 |
Valparaiso v. Evansville UNDER 127 |
Top |
51-58 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). THE SITUATION: Valparaiso (6-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 70-52 loss at Evansville as a 1-point underdog. Evansville (7-8) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Crusaders allowed the Purple Aces to nail 60.4% of their shots from the field which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Valparaiso holds their home hosts to just 42.6% shooting — so they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Crusaders have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Valparaiso also made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was their best field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Crusaders are 10th in the Missouri Valley Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While they score 67.9 PPG on the season with a 41.2% field goal percentage, they have averaged just 64.2 PPG along with a 38.9% field goal percentage in their last five games. Valparaiso's scoring average drops to 63.0 PPG along with a 40.8% shooting percentage in their nine road games. They have played 5 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total with a winning record at home. They also have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Crusaders have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They also have played 28 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. Evansville enjoyed their best shooting effort of the season yesterday — and it was only the second time all season where they shot better than 48.9% of their shots. The Purple Aces make only 42.0% of their shots. Evansville has also allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.5% of their shots — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at last 47% of their shots. The Purple Aces have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while this is their second game since January 17th, they have played 4 straight Unders when playing their second game in eight days. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to 62.2 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. Evansville has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Purple Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Despite both these teams overachieving with their shooting yesterday, that result still finished below the 126.5 Total. There were only 59 possessions for both teams in that game. If the tempo is similar to that again tonight, this game should finish well below the number. Valparaiso has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Air Force v. San Jose State OVER 137.5 |
|
62-75 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (717) and the San Jose State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: Air Force (4-11) will be looking to avenge their 59-58 upset loss to the Spartans on Thursday as a 6-point favorite. San Jose State (4-11) has pulled off two straight upset victories with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons made only 40.7% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Even more ominous for Air Force, while the Spartans made 50% of their shots on Thursday, that was still the second-best defensive effort for the Falcons in their last six games. Air Force has allowed their last five opponents to nail 51.8% of their shots which has resulted in 78.8 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Air Force stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Additionally, Air Force has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s — and San Jose State has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Over/Under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. The Spartans have played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. The Over is also 20-8-1 in San Jose State’s last 29 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 16-7-3 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. By holding Air Force to 40.7% shooting, the Spartans played their best defensive game in their last seven contests. Yet they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — and they allow their visitors to average 81.7 PPG when they are playing at home. San Jose State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their road games.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight Overs when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 20* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (717) and the San Jose State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
California v. Arizona OVER 137.5 |
Top |
50-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). THE SITUATION: California (7-11) has lost three straight games with their 72-68 loss at Arizona State as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. Arizona (12-4) saw their three-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 73-64 loss to Stanford as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears made only 39.3% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. Cal did get their leading scorer back in that game against the Sun Devils with Matt Bradley scoring 26 points with 10 rebounds. The Golden Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 135 point total, Cal has then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing an Over. The Bears stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Cal scores a healthy 73.4 PPG on 47.6% shooting on the road. But their defense has been a mess playing away from home — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.4% with their opponents making 42.6% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 298th and 333rd in the nation. The Golden Bears have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Cal has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s. Arizona has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Wildcats have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home against a Pac-12 foe. Arizona made only 41.5% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so they should shoot better this afternoon. But this is a tired basketball team playing their second game in three days and fourth in the last nine days. Injuries are not helping matters — they lost a rotation player with Jemarl Baker’s season-ending injury and Bennedict Mathurin played 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 10 points after suffering a right ankle sprain on Monday. Fatigue will impact the Wildcats’ effort on defense and likely lead to them fouling more. Arizona allowed the Cardinal to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was their worst defensive effort in five games. The Wildcats have played 4 straight Overs when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They score 76.8 PPG at home — and in their last five games, Arizona is scoring 80.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite. California has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Weber State v. Idaho OVER 145 |
Top |
81-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). THE SITUATION: Weber State (7-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 77-72 loss at Southern Utah in a pick ‘em contest. Idaho (0-11) remained winless back on January 16th in their last game which ended in a 75-61 loss to Northern Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 39.4% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Weber State can shoot the basketball (per usual) — this year, they rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.2%. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 6 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less. Over their last five games, Weber State is scoring 90.2 PPG while nailing 53.3% of their shots. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 74.8 PPG. The Wildcats have 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Weber State has also played a decisive 41 of their last 60 road games Over the Total when favored. Idaho has played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home as an underdog. The Vandals had made at least 50.9% of their shots in three straight games before running into Northern Colorado who held them to 54 points on 39.6% shooting in their first meeting on January 14th before making only 42% of their shots two days later the last time they were on the court. Idaho has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Head coach Zac Claus will likely want his team passing more after they dished out just 10 and 6 assists respectively in those last two games. The Vandals have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not assisting on more than 12 baskets in two straight games. Those two games finished Under the Total — but Idaho has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team — they have the nation’s 333rd worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number which worsens to a 334th mark in the nation when they are playing at home. Their visitors nail 44.2% of their shots from 3-point land when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Weber State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
San Jose State v. New Mexico UNDER 142.5 |
|
83-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (647) and the New Mexico Lobos (648). San Jose State (2-11) looks to avenge a 67-51 loss to the Lobos on their temporary neutral court in the Texas panhandle on Thursday as an 8-point underdog. New Mexico (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans made only 40% of their shots — yet that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. San Jose State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Spartans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They are making only 39.5% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 59.6 PPG. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. New Mexico made 47.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They are only scoring 57.0 PPG over their last five games with a field goal percentage of just 37.2% over that span. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court (which is a close approximation to their temporary home in Texas without fans).
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 60 points. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (647) and the New Mexico Lobos (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
CS Bakersfield v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 125.5 |
|
47-45 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the CS-Bakersfield (865) and UC-Irvine (866). THE SITUATION: CS-Bakersfield (9-4) has won five straight games after their 83-72 win at Hawai’i on Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. UC-Riverside (6-3) has won three of their last four games with their 70-53 win at Cal-Poly Slo on Saturday as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-2-1 in the UC-Riverside’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Highlanders held the Mustangs to just 30.9% shooting after limiting them to 30% shooting the day before. UC-Riverside has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no better than 37% from the field. Over their last five games, the Highlanders are allowing only 65.4 PPG on 39.0% shooting from the field. They return home where the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Under is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 home games as a favorite. CS-Bakersfield has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a Big West foe. The Roadrunners have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 129.5 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Bakersfield has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and UC-Riverside has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as a favorite. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the CS-Bakersfield (865) and UC-Irvine (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
Troy State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). THE SITUATION: Troy (6-7) has lost three games in a row with their 63-56 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 71-68 loss a Georgia State as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans made 48.9% of their shots against the Eagles which was much higher than the 37.7% shooting percentage they are saddled with in their ten road games. They are scoring only 56.8 PPG on the road. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their game with Georgia Southern still finished Under the 128.5 point total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. The Trojans are playing better on defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.3% shooting which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 52 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Troy has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Coastal Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Chanticleers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have still won five of their last seven games, Coastal Carolina has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. This is a team that was playing at a faster pace in their soft non-conference schedule — six of their first eight games saw at least 75 possessions for both teams. The Chanticleers have not seen more than 72 possessions for both teams in their last four games. They started Sun Belt Conference play in their last five games — they are scoring 74.4 PPG with a 41.8% shooting percentage which is a big dropoff from their 87.1 PPG scoring average along with a 49.2% shooting percentage overall which includes those seven non-conference games. Additionally, Coastal Carolina has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-0-1 in the Chanticleers’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
UCLA v. California OVER 132.5 |
Top |
61-57 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). THE SITUATION: UCLA (11-2) has won six games in a row with their 81-76 win against Washington on Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. California (7-8) has won two of their last three games with their 72-63 win at Utah as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins made only 41.4% of their shots against the Huskies in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Mick Cronin has adapted his talent at UCLA to construct this team to be quite different than the grinding-defensive units he had at Cincinnati. This Bruins’ team ranks 10th in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency. They crash the offensive glass still by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots (46th in the nation). They are also making 38.6% of their 3-pointers which is 29th in the country — and that mark has improved to a 44.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Bears struggle to defend the perimeter — they are allowing their opponents to make 40.4% of their 3-pointers, 334th in the nation. Yet Cronin’s team ranks 119th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency after allowing Washington to make 51.7% of their shots. UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival. Cronin lost one of his best players in Chris Smith to a season-ending injury — but he still has five other players averaging double-digits per game. The Bruins are scoring 79.8 PPG in their last five games on 47.1% shooting from the field. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — but they are allowing 79.8 PPG. UCLA has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Bruins have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. California has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a conference opponent — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory against a Pac-12 foe. The Golden Bears are playing with Matt Bradley — but head coach Mark Fox’s team has found an offensive rhythm without him. Not only have they won two of their last three games after he suffered his ankle injury but they scored 50 points in the second half in their upset victory against the Utes. Cal also held Utah to just 41.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet the Golden Bears have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots for a 74.8 PPG scoring mark — and their Pac-12 opponents are making 48.6% of their shots against them. Cal ranks 10th in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Golden Bears have also played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 6th with the Bruins winning at home by a 76-56 score as a 9-point favorite. California has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-21 |
UAB v. Charlotte UNDER 129.5 |
Top |
61-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-1) has won two games in a row with their 62-58 win against Southern Mississippi as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Charlotte (5-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 75-72 loss to Belmont Abbey in a non-boarded game on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, UAB has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total with that game skimming Under 131 total. The Blazers are limiting their opponents to just a 41.1% effective field goal percentage which is third-best in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 57.0 PPG this season on 36.7% shooting from the field. Now UAB goes on the road for just the second time this season. They made only 39.3% of their shots against Southern Miss. The Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 37 of their last 56 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 6 points or less — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite overall. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The 49ers stay at home where they are scoring 67.9 PPG on just 44.4% shooting. Charlotte has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Charlotte has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 150.5 |
Top |
87-63 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-45 upset loss to Wofford last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Samford (5-5) has lost two games in a row after their 73-68 loss at UT-Chattanooga as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs love to push the pace — they rank 9th in the nation with an adjusted tempo rate that produces 74.1 average possessions per game. The 71 possessions in their last game against the Moccasins are the lowest for them in any game all season. Four of their ten games have seen at least 80 possessions for both teams. Samford has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 18 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games . They are scoring 84.9 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots — and they are allowing their opponents to score 77.7 PPG. They return home where they are making 51.8% of their shots en route to scoring 97.5 PPG. They are allowing their guests to score 76.5 PPG. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They also have played 26 of their last 35 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. UNC-Greensboro has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. They made only 34.5% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games. They also held Wofford to just a 29.6% field goal percentage which was by far their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Not only has the Spartans played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 79.1 PPG while allowing their opponents to score 71.8 PPG. UNC-Greensboro is middle of the pack in averaging 71 possessions per game — but they are willing to engage with teams that like to play faster. The Spartans have played 8 straight games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UNC-Greensboro has also played 6 straight road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when laying 6.5 to 9 points.
FINAL TAKE: Samford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-21 |
Boise State v. Wyoming OVER 148.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). THE SITUATION: Boise State (10-1) has won ten games in a row with their 83-60 win at Wyoming on Monday as a 7-point favorite. Wyoming (7-3) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos’ held the Cowboys to just a 38.9% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Boise State has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Broncos lead the Mountain West Conference by scoring 81.2 PPG. They have scored at least 80 points in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. In their last three games, Boise State is scoring 86.8 PPG while making 48.4% of their shots. They are also scoring 82.3 PPG in their six games away from home. Wyoming has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Their 38.9% shooting percentage was their second-lowest mark all season. Wyoming has allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has translated into 80.8 PPG. They stay at home for this rematch where they are making 46.1% of their shots to average 81.7 PPG. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 8 home games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-21 |
Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 218 |
Top |
118-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-5) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 102-94 upset win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog. New Orleans (4-4) has lost two in a row with their 111-110 upset loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans nailed 49.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was their second-best mark all season. But they also allowed the Thunder to make 46.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. First-year head coach Stan Van Gundy was livid with the effort of his team that allowed 27 fast break points. Expect a better effort on defense on getting back to the other end of the court tonight after this team has been upset twice in a row after a narrow 2-point loss to Indiana before their setback to OKC. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses at home. The Pelicans have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. They also have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Van Gundy has made an immediate impact on the defensive improvement of this team — they are not fouling as much, they are crashing the defensive glass, and they are working harder in defending the perimeter. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season on Wednesday with them holding the Hawks to just 37.5% shooting. Third-year head coach James Borrego hopes that effort will carry over tonight. The Hornets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the win, Charlotte is struggling to score baskets. They are making only 42.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in only 105.2 PPG. The Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days.
FINAL TAKE: The Hornets have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-21 |
South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina OVER 145.5 |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (7-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 62-49 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Coastal Carolina (7-2) saw their three-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 70-62 loss to Georgia State as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars made only 34% of their shots on Saturday which was their lowest field goal percentage of the season. Yet they did hold the Eagles to 40.4% shooting which was tied for the best defensive effort in their last seven games. South Alabama has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Jaguars struggle on defense — they rank 321st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 59.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 334th in the nation — and in their five games away from home, they are allowing teams to connect on 64.5% of their 2-point shots. South Alabama has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The Jaguars do make 49.1% of their shots which is resulting in a healthy 80.8 PPG. Coastal Carolina is scoring 90.7 PPG on 51.6% shooting from the field. Yet they only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. The Chanticleers have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Coastal Carolina has played two straight Unders, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. This team is sixth in the nation by pulling down 39.6% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against this Jaguars team that is 294th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.8% of their misses. The Chanticleers stay at home where they are 7-1 while scoring 92.4 PPG on 52.8% shooting. Coast Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-21 |
Washington State v. California OVER 127.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-1) lost their first game of the season on Saturday in their 86-82 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog. California (5-6) has lost their last two games with their 73-64 loss at Oregon State on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are two unusual circumstances to this situation that make a mathematical projection for the total in question. First, the Golden Bears will be without their top two scorers in Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich. Bradley played only 13 minutes on Saturday before injuring his ankle that will keep him out tonight. Anticevich is still recovering from an appendectomy from last month. Their absences remove 28.1 PPG combined from their lineup. And they will be playing a Cougars team that is allowing only 60.8 PPG on 34.2% shooting from the field. But Washington State has played a very soft strength of schedule that is largely responsible for those gaudy defensive numbers. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics calculate that the Cougars’ strength of schedule has been the 309th easiest in the nation. The number is in the high-120s — and dropping. I think it is too low for this Pac-12 clash. California has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Losing Bradley and Anticevich is a two-sided coin because Cal also loses their defensive contributions. As it is, the Golden Bears are allowing their Pac-12 opponents to score 74.4 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots in five games. If Washington State approaches those numbers, this game flies Over. They return home where the players asked to make up for the baskets Bradley and Anticevich would be making will feel more comfortable. This team did make 51.2% of the shots against the Beavers. California has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Washington State has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six-game. Now they go on the road for the first time all season — and I suspect this will impact their defensive numbers. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Washington State has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of over 60% at home (Cal is 4-1 at home).
FINAL TAKE: I value team trends for two reasons: (1) they can identify a personality of a team regarding how they respond to certain situations and (2) they can expose biases in how the market perceives certain teams. The latter is particularly in play here. The market tends to overestimate the value of the Washington State defense. That means a soft number for us — which is what I think were are experiencing tonight. Cal has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. I think they find enough scoring from their remaining roster to push this game into the 130s. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-21 |
Wichita State v. Houston UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). THE SITUATION: Wichita State (6-2) has won five games in a row after their 83-79 upset win at Ole Miss on Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Houston (8-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season at Tulsa by defeating SMU on the road on Sunday by a 74-60 score as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Shockers made 9 of their 20 shots from the behind the arc on Saturday against the Rebels despite going into that game with a 33% shooting percentage from downtown. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight — especially against this Cougars team that is 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 24.5% shooting from 3-point land. Wichita State made 52% of their shots in that game in what was their best offensive performance of the season. But Wichita State has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Shockers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while Wichita State has scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. The Shockers allowed Mississippi to make 41.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they allowed in their last four games. Wichita State holds their opponents to 38.9% shooting — and their last five opponents are shooting just 36.0%. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Shockers have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. The Cougars made 39.1% of their shots which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. Houston has only had preseason American Athletic Conference Player of the Year for four games this season — and now Caleb Mills has decided to transfer. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is now, more than ever, defined by their play on defense. They are seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. They hold their opponents to only 55.0 PPG on their home court on 36.2% shooting. The Under is 21-5-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-21 |
Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 216 |
|
116-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Toronto Raptors (553) and New Orleans Pelicans (554). THE SITUATION: Toronto (1-3) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 100-83 win against the New York Knicks as an 8.5-point favorite. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 113-80 win at Oklahoma City as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors were our NBA Game of the Month on New Year’s Eve and we were rewarded with them playing their best defensive game of the season as they held the Knicks to just 36.4% shooting. That level of play should continue for head coach Nick Nurse whose team was second-best in the NBA last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Toronto has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. The Raptors have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Yet Toronto is struggling on the offensive end of the court as they tend to do when they get stuck into just their half-court offense. They are making only 41.3% of their shots which is translating into only 101.5 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. New Orleans is still not getting enough credit from the betting public about their immediate improvement on defense under new head coach Stan Van Gundy. They have held their five opponents to just 99.2 PPG on just 43.4% shooting from the field. They played their best defensive game of the season against the Thunder by holding them to just 37.5% shooting. The Pelicans also made 48.4% of their shots which was their best shooting effort for the season — so regression is likely. New Orleans has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 6 straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 23rd where the Pelicans won in a 113-99 upset as a 4-point underdog. New Orleans has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. 20* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Toronto Raptors (553) and New Orleans Pelicans (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224 |
Top |
86-111 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-1) has won two of their last three games with their 98-95 win at San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (2-1) rebounded from their first loss in nine games going back to the bubble by avenging their loss to the Kings with a 116-110 win in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 48.9% of their shots which was the best shooting mark so far in their three games this season. But Phoenix has played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Suns saw the Kings make 47.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the young season as well. Phoenix has played of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Suns return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This game flew Under the 227.5 point total as well — and the Pelicans have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. New Orleans made only 38.3% of their shots which is concerning since they made only 39.7% of their shots in their previous game at Miami. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Pelicans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has seen only 204.7 combined points in their first three games — and Phoenix has seen only 211.0 combined points in their first three games. While matchups make fights, the Pelicans are clearly emphasizing defense under first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy and the Suns’ improvement in the bubble that seems to be carrying over was in part because of improved emphasis on their defensive play (particularly in the emergence of Mikal Bridges). Nice value here. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-20 |
Grizzlies v. Nets UNDER 230 |
Top |
116-111 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). THE SITUATION: Memphis (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 122-112 upset loss to Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (2-1) lost their first game of the season yesterday with their 106-104 upset loss at Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Memphis has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis is throwing up a bunch of shots — they have launched 95 and 93 shots in their first two games. But the Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Memphis has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has made it point to play outstanding defense according to Kevin Durant. They have held their first three opponents to just 39.9% shooting — and these three foes have scored only 100.0 PPG against them. The Hornets shot 44.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance for the Nets this season. Look for this Brooklyn team to tighten things up on defense. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing without rest. UPDATE: Head coach Steve Nash has announced that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will get the night off given load management after playing yesterday. With the team already missing Dinwiddie, that is plenty of scoring not available tonight. The team trends above capture the personality of this Nets’ team playing in the bubble without Durant and Irving last season — so the Under situation remains very good.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn suffered terrible news earlier today with the announcement that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out the season with a torn ACL that he suffered yesterday. Memphis has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
UCLA v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) returns all five starters that were 19-12 before play was stopped in March due to COVID. San Diego State (30-2) lost three starters including All-American point guard Malachi Flynn who was drafted in the first round by Toronto from the group that was 30-2 before the stoppage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I am cautious in these early college basketball games — especially on the opening day during a pandemic. But with the Bruins returning five starters from last year’s team, I am more comfortable relying on the statistics from last year. UCLA was more-and-more beginning to look like Mick Cronin’s teams at Cincinnati who played hard-nosed defense while crashing the glass on offense at a moderate (at best) pace. While the Bruins ranked 100th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Cronin had his team playing as the 43rd best defensive team in adjusted efficiency in their final ten games. UCLA was not a great offensive team last season either — they ranked 206th in the nation with their 69.3 PPG scoring average while ranking 230th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.4%. They only made 32.2% of their 3-pointers as well which was 226th in the country. The Bruins were pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots which was 21st in the nation — but the Aztecs usually do a good job of protecting their defensive rim which is a foundation of the program that head coach Brian Dutcher has continued from being the long-time assistant here to Steve Fisher. San Diego State held their opponents to rebounding only 25.4% of their missed shot last year. UCLA has played 34 of their last 45 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 130-139.5 point range — and those numbers tightened to them playing 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total with the number in the 130-134.5 point range. San Diego State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home. Additionally, the Aztecs have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog at home. Dutcher gets back his 6’10 sophomore rim protector Nathan Mensah this season after he only played 13 games last year before going on the shelf with a blood clot issue. San Diego State held their opponents to just 56.3 PPG when Mensah was healthy — and that number rose to 61.3 PPG after his injury.
FINAL TAKE: The California programs had the least amount of time to practice given state COVID restrictions. I think this dynamic will exacerbate the weaknesses for these California teams early in the season — and that means that the UCLA and San Diego State offensive attacks are likely to be a step or two behind. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-20 |
Lakers v. Heat UNDER 214.5 |
|
106-93 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (961) and the Miami Heat (962) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-35) staved off elimination on Friday with their 111-108 upset win over the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (67-24) blew their first opportunity to hoist the championship trophy but they still own a 3-2 mark in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers lost Game Five despite making 46.3% of their shots which was their best shooting effort from the floor in the last three games. Los Angeles has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after an upset loss. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Anthony Davis may not be 100% with the heel injury he suffered late on Game Four. If he cannot contribute the same level of offense as he has in this series, the Lakers’ reliable scoring weapons shrink. This will likely be the LeBron James Show tonight — and that means a slower pace as he looks to create his shot from isolation plays. The Lakers had been averaging 101.2 possessions per game with James on the court but that mark has dropped to just 94.8 possessions per game mark with James on the court in this series. Los Angeles has also outrebounded the Heat by seven boards in each of the last three games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Miami has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Heat nailed 14 of their 33 shots (42.4%) from behind the arc on Friday but regression back to their 36.2% mark from 3-point land in this series is likely for tonight. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 20* NBA LA Lakers-Miami ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (961) and the Miami Heat (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (67-23) took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Tuesday with their 102-96 victory over the Heat. Miami (57-35) looks to keep their championship dreams alive in this must-win game for them. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat were able to get Bam Adebayo back on the court in Game Four where he played over 33 minutes. With the two days of rest since that game, Adebayo should be able to at least match that amount of time on the court tonight. As I argued for Game Two last Friday (our NBA Total of the Year), playing without Adebayo would have a significant impact on a higher-scoring game. The highest two scoring games in this series were Games Two and Three which Adebayo did not play — 238 and 219 combined points were scored in those two games. Adebayo’s return to the court leads to lower scoring games. For starters, he is Miami’s best interior defender. Anthony Davis can almost score at will if he is being defended by Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk. But Leonard and Olynyk are both capable outside shooters that Adebayo. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team play at a faster pace when Adebayo is not on the court. In all, Adebayo’s presence on the court tonight means better defense for the Heat along with a slower pace and less 3-point shooting. Miami has been outrebounded by seven boards in each of the four games in this series. The Heat have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Miami has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least two days of rest. And in their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series, the Heat have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Lakers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Head coach Frank Vogel made a nice coaching adjustment on Tuesday by giving Anthony Davis the defensive assignment against Jimmy Butler. Not only does this make Butler’s job scoring at the rim more of a challenge but Davis was playing off Butler at the top of the key while seemingly daring him to take 3-pointers. Yet Butler only laughed three shots from downtown — missing all three attempts. Miami ended that game with a 42.7% field goal percentage which was tied for the lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponent by at least 5 boards in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Lakers v. Heat OVER 218.5 |
|
102-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-34) looks to build off a 115-104 upset win over the Lakers on Sunday as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (66-23) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 28 of their last 41 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Miami has also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win. The Heat made 51.2% of their shots on Sunday after nailing 50.7% of their shots in Game Two of this series — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. And while the last two games have this series have seen 219 and 238 combined points, Miami has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Despite shooting over 50% again, there is room for the Heat to replicate that feat again since Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined to make only 5 of their 17 shots from behind the arc despite combining to shoot 38.9% from 3-point land in the regular season. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be. I argued on Friday for the Over in Game Two (our NBA Total of the Year) that the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic dramatically changed the tenor of this series: Miami was left without their best interior defender; their replacements were offensive players who were liabilities on defense; the Heat would resort to small-ball with a quicker pace and more 3-point shooting. Even if Adebayo plays tonight, I expect these factors to continue. Miami has also played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Lakers shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. LA should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when leading in playoff series. They had scored at least 114 points in their previous four games before only scoring 104 points on Sunday. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-04-20 |
Lakers v. Heat OVER 218.5 |
|
104-115 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (705) and the Miami Heat (706) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-22) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 124-114 win over the Heat as a 10.5-point favorite. Miami (56-34) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers raced out to a 68-54 halftime lead after owning a 65-48 halftime lead in Game One of this series. Los Angeles has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after leading by at least 10 points in their last two games. The Lakers have also played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. I argued on Friday for the Over in Game Two (our NBA Total of the Year) that the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic dramatically changed the tenor of this series: Miami was left without their best interior defender; their replacements were offensive players who were liabilities on defense; the Heat would resort to small-ball with a quicker pace and more 3-point shooting. These assessments were accurate the total soaring Over the 217 Total on Friday. While I do not expect the Heat to necessarily shoot 50% from the field while making 40% of their 3-pointers (and it is why I am passing on the side play), this should still be a high-scoring game. Miami has played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. They also have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Heat have also played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: I do not expect much from Adebayo if he is able to play significant minutes tonight. I suspect Anthony Davis will still have his way inside while Spoelstra will still lean on small-ball and a bunch of 3s with the hope his team can nail 40% of them again as they did on Friday. Miami has lost all four games they have played against the Lakers this season — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Miami ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (705) and the Miami Heat (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-20 |
Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (65-22) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 116-98 victory over the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami (56-33) has lost two of their last three games — and they suffered two critical injuries in that game to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic that have an immediate impact on this series moving forward. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami hit only 42.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. They also made just 11 of their 36 shots from downtown for a low 31% mark. The team was simply overwhelmed in the 2nd quarter after racing out to an early 13-point lead. Adebayo only played 21 minutes while Dragic managed just 14:50 minutes before leaving the game to their injuries. The Lakers nailed 60% of their 3-pointers in the first half en route to 65 points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Moving forward, the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic forces head coach Erik Spoelstra to make some significant changes. He is going to play more small-ball — which means a faster tempo, more 3-pointers but a reliance on players with defensive liabilities. Without Adebayo and Dragic on the court, Miami has seen the average possessions per game rise from a 97.4 average to 101 possessions per game. The Heat have their worst Defensive Rating when Dragic is not on the court. His absence means more minutes for Tyler Herro who can be lights out on offense but is a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. Adebayo claims he is going to try to play tonight. We’ll see. Spoelstra will have to give more minutes to Kelly Olynyk in his absence which is another player with defensive limitations when playing against a player like Anthony Davis. Spoelstra will likely embrace more small-ball lineups and even more 3-point shooting in the hopes that his team can replicate the 38% shooting from behind the arc they enjoyed during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Heat have now allowed at least 113 points in their last three games — and they have played 9 straight games on the road Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. They also have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Los Angeles coasted to victory despite making only 45.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last four games. The Lakers raced out to a 65-48 halftime lead while nailing 60% of their 3-pointers in the first 24 minutes of that game. That was the sixth time that LA has scored at least 60 points in the first half of their sixteen playoff games. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after enjoying a 15-point lead at halftime. They also had a 10-point lead at halftime in their final game with Denver — and the Lakers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after generating double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. And in their last 20 games after a victory by at least 15 points, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. The Lakers have an Offensive Rating of 115.7 which is 2nd best of all playoff teams. Davis scored 34 points on Wednesday and should have his way inside with Adebayo out (or less than 100%). Los Angeles outrebounded the Heat by a 54 to 36 margin in Game One — and Miami has played 8 straight road games Over the Total after a game where they were outrebounded by at least 15 boards.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have to shoot their way to victory tonight — and if they miss, that triggers the Lakers’ transition offense from which they entered this series averaging 23.3 PPG in transition with it representing 18.5% of their offense. Miami has lost all three meetings with LA this season — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 |
Top |
107-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-20 |
Celtics v. Heat OVER 211.5 |
|
109-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (713) and the Miami Heat (714) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-29) won Game Three of this series on Saturday with their 117-106 win over the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (54-31) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat had their worst shooting game in their last twelve contests by making only 38.8% of their shots on Monday. After making 44% of their 3-pointers in Game One of this series and then 33% of their shots from downtown in Game Two, Miami made just 27% of their 44 shots from behind the arc. The Heat should shoot better tonight — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days off — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. The Heat have still won ten of their last twelve games — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 38 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the game finished Over the Total 25 times. Boston tied their lowest defensive field goal percentage in their last nine games by holding the Heat to just 38.8% shooting. The Celtics have still allowed Miami to score at least 106 points in all three games in this series — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 43 of their last 66 games on the road Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Celtics also now have Gordon Hayward back on the court after he logged-in over 30 minutes on Saturday. Hayward makes the Boston offensive attack better because his outside shooting serves as a zone-buster. In the twenty possessions that the Celtics played against a Heat zone defense with Hayward on the court, they scored 20 points at a 0.90 Points-Per-Possession clip — as compared to the 19 points they scored in Game Two in thirty-two possessions with Hayward where they scored at just a 0.59 PPP clip. Boston also scored in six of their final seven possessions against the Miami zone defense with Hayward on the court which suggests they began to figure out how to expose that defense.
FINAL TAKE: The pace is picking up in this series. After Game One and Game Two saw 90 and 93 possessions, Game Three had 99 possessions. Boston is scoring at a 1.10 Points-Per-Possession rate while Miami is scoring at a 1.09 PPP clip in this series. With the extra days of rest and the offensive impact the addition of Hayward has in this series, expect a higher scoring game. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (713) and the Miami Heat (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-20 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 |
|
117-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (703) and the Miami Heat (704) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-30) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Thursday with their 106-101 upset victory over the Celtics as a 2.5-point underdog. Boston (56-29) has now lost five of their last seven games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami pulled off their second straight upset victory in this series — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two straight games as an underdog. And while the Heat have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. Miami won this game despite allowing the Celtics to make 50% of their shots from the field. That was the worst defensive effort for the Heat in their last fifteen games. Miami has frustrated Boston with their use of a 2-3 zone defense. The Celtics average 0.98 Points-Per-Possession in their half-court offense — but they are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession clip in this series against the Miami 2-3 zone. Boston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While they struggle to adjust to this 2-3 zone, the Celtics will be hard-pressed to replicate their 50% shooting effort on Thursday as it was the best offensive performance in their last eleven games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. And while the Celtics have lost to Miami three straight times when including a loss in the bubble in August before the playoffs started, Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (703) and the Miami Heat (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
104-89 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-20 |
Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 221 |
|
96-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (711) and the Denver Nuggets (712) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-26) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-107 win over the Nuggets as an 8.5-point favorite. Denver (51-32) has lost two of their last three games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game finished right at the 220.5 closing total number despite the Clippers making 54.7% of their shots. Los Angeles also allowed the Nuggets to make 46.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. Head coach Doc Rivers was imploring his team to play harder on defense with him claiming that the first team to play defense would win that game (paraphrasing from memory). The Clippers finally did raise their level of play and intensity on the defensive end of the court in the 4th quarter to take the lead and pull away from the Nuggets — they held them to just 19 points in the final twelve minutes. I do expect that late defensive effort to carry over into this game. LA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. Los Angeles has also played 33 of their last 51 games away from home Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Rivers is getting a nice defensive effort from big man Ivica Zubac whose responsibility is to slow down the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic — but he was limited to only 21 minutes on Monday given foul trouble. The depth of this team should help the Clippers’ defensive effort tonight as well as they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Denver has played a decisive 52 of their last 89 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And after not taking more than 85 shots during a four-game stretch, the Nuggets have launched 91 and 94 shots in their last two games — and they have then played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams are doing an admirable job slowing down the key offensive player for the other team. Denver is throwing swarms of defenders at Kawhi Leonard who had only 23 points on Monday. The Nuggets’ Jamal Murray may be tiring as he has not scored more than 17 points in three of his last four games — he is shooting just 20 of 53 (37.7%) in this series while making only 7 of his 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (711) and the Denver Nuggets (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-20 |
Bucks v. Heat UNDER 219.5 |
|
118-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (745) and the Miami Heat (746) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Miami (51-29) seized a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 115-100 upset victory over the Bucks as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (60-21) has been upset in all three games in this series and now find themselves on the brink of elimination. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. Miami has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. The Heat opened as the favorite for the first time in this series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored who also having played 7 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Furthermore, Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when up 3-0 in a playoff series under head coach Eric Spoelstra. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 15 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a game-time decision in this game after he wrenched in his ankle in Game Three. Even if he plays, he will not be at full strength for this game.
FINAL TAKE: An adjustment that head coach Mike Budenholzer will likely make in this game is to not give as many minutes to center Brook Lopez who has been consistently exposed on defense against the Heat’s cadre of 3-point shooting big men. Getting Lopez off the court will help the Bucks’ defense but hinder their offense since he plays an important role in their 3-point shooting attack. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (745) and the Miami Heat (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-02-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 217 |
Top |
102-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-02-20 |
Heat v. Bucks OVER 221.5 |
|
116-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (730) and the Miami Heat (729) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (49-29) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 115-104 upset victory over the Bucks as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (60-19) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while this game came on the heels of their 99-87 victory over Indiana back on August 24th to complete their four-game sweep in that series, Miami has played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Heat have rested legs right now with the seven-day break between ending that series with the Pacers and beginning this series — and that should help push the score up in this contest. Miami has played 24 of their last 35 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bucks have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 46 of their last 75 games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 second games to a new playoff series Over the Total. Game One was cruising to finish way Over the Total before only 41 combined points were scored in the 4th quarter. I suspect that was an aberration. Expect all four of the quarters tonight to consist of brisk scoring. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (730) and the Miami Heat (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-31-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226.5 |
|
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (47-30) has the opportunity to close out this series tonight after their 114-80 victory over the Thunder as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma City (46-31) trails by a 3-2 margin in this series and will be looking to force a climactic seventh game for this series on Wednesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 85 points in their last game. Houston has also played 32 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Getting Russell Westbrook back on the court gave the Rockets another outstanding ball defender. They did a very good job of defending the Thunder’s attempt to create scoring opportunities via isolation — and they have forced them into taking too many ill-advised 3s. But Westbrook looked rusty as he missed ten of his thirteen shots from the field. Houston has still scored 114 points in each of their last two games — but they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games away from home Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Oklahoma City was a mess on offense as they made just 7 of their 46 shots from behind the arc en route to only making 31.5% of their shots overall. Head coach Billy Donovan has a dilemma on his hands. He needs to give Luguentz Dort playing time because he is his best defender against James Harden. But Dort is a liability on offense — he was just three of sixteen from the field on Saturday while missing all nine of his 3-pointers. Donovan is also playing Steven Adams to offer a rim protector (something he will likely feel compelled to do with Westbrook now healthy) — but when Adams is on the court with Dort, the Rockets are comfortable playing off both players and cram the paint. Oklahoma City has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also a decisive 47-21-1 in the Thunder’s last 69 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-30-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 217 |
|
112-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-24) has won four straight games after their 110-106 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite as they completed their opening-round sweep of the 76ers. Toronto has won eight straight games after they swept Brooklyn in their opening-round series after defeating them last Sunday by a 150-122 score as a 14-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors 28-point victory over the Nets came on the heels of their 117-92 win over Brooklyn in Game Three of that series — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning two straight games by at least double-digits. Toronto has played a decisive 37 of their last 59 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. The Raptors made 50.4% of their shots in Game Three before improving on that effort by nailing 55.4% of their shots in Game Four — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after shooting 50% from the field in two straight games. The Raptors are playing at a fast pace as they attempted 91 shots in Game Three before taking 101 shots in Game Four — and they have then played 15 of their last 20 games away from home Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. For the season, the Raptors average 88 shot attempts per game — and Boston has played 28 of their last 47 games Over the Total against teams who average at least 88 shots per game. The long rest should ensure the Celtics have fresh legs that usually help their offensive attack. Boston has played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing not more than their third game in ten days. Additionally, the Celtics have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 70%.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are dealing with significant injuries. Boston will be without Gordon Hayward who is on the shelf with an ankle injury. Toronto may be without Kyle Lowry who is questionable with an ankle injury of his own. The Raptors average 3.5 more possessions per game when Lowry is not on the court — so his potential absence should lead Toronto to play quicker. These two teams played in the bubble on August 7th where the Celtic won by a 122-100 score as a 2-point underdog. Toronto has played 32 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed their opponent to score at least 110 points including eight of these last thirteen situations. 10* NBA Boston-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
|
107-117 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (713) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (47-29) has won three straight games in this series after winning Game Four of this series on Sunday with their 129-127 loss as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (47-30) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have scored at least 124 points in all four games of this series — and they have nailed at least 51.2% of their shots in their last three victories after they shot 57.5% from the field on Sunday which included them making 48% of their 3-pointers. Utah has an effective field goal percentage of 61% in the playoffs which is the best mark of all sixteen teams. The Over is 19-9-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Utah has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. Denver has been overmatched on the defensive end of the court while missing the injured Gary Harris and Will Barton who are two of their better perimeter defenders. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in Denver’s last 51 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by just 3 points or less. 10* NBA Utah-Denver TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-24-20 |
Pacers v. Heat UNDER 218 |
|
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Monday, will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 124-115 victory over the Pacers as a 5-point favorite. Indiana (45-31) faces elimination from the playoffs. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brooklyn Nets decided to not play defense yesterday when they were down 3-0 in their series with Toronto — and that is something I have considered for this game. These bubble games on neutral courts without fans where playoff elimination does have the benefit of offering the losing players the liberation of returning to their families. Yet I expect the Pacers to avoid the fate of the Nets’ players yesterday — they consistently play hard for head coach Nate McMillan. Besides, the longer they can keep this series alive, the better the chances they can get Domantas Sabonis who has returned to the bubble and is quarantining after dealing with plantar fasciitis. His return could be a game-changer for Indiana in this series. One game at a time. Indiana lost on Saturday despite making 48.8% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Pacers started slowly in Game Three by falling behind by a 74-56 margin — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after falling behind by at least 15 points at halftime in their last game. Indiana has also played 12 of their last 19 games on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. Additionally, the Pacers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog in the playoffs. Indiana has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And in their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the Pacers have played 46 of these games Under the Total. Miami made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was their best shooting mark in this series. The Heat have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the playoffs with a 3-0 lead under head coach Erik Spoelstra. They also have played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana has played 42 of their last 68 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The first two games of this series went Under the Total before Game Three’s Over. Expect another lower scoring game tonight. 10* NBA Indiana-Miami TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-24-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224 |
|
114-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (45-30) won their first game in this series on Saturday with their 119-107 victory in overtime over the Rockets as a 2.5-point underdog. Houston (46-29) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder made only 44.6% of their shots on Saturday yet that was still the best shooting effort in their last six games. Oklahoma City has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Head coach Billy Donovan looks to have decided to trade offense for defense in this series by giving significant minutes to big man Steven Adams and Luguentz Dort who has the defensive assignment of covering James Harden. Dort did a nice job on Harden in Game Three by limiting him to just 12 of 27 shooting along with him making only 3 of his 13 shots from behind the arc. But Adams and Dort are not shooters nor big offensive threats which makes it easier on the switching Rockets’ defense. The Under is 41-20-1 in Oklahoma City’s last 62 games as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Thunder have also played 21 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 220s. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Houston has seen their shooting percentage decline in each game in this series so the grind of playing every other day may be getting to their 3-point shooting fest. This is a team that has played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Raptors v. Nets UNDER 221.5 |
|
150-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (35-39) finds themselves on the brink of elimination today after losing Game Three of this series on Friday by a 117-92 score as an 11-point underdog. Toronto (55-19) has won seven straight games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets really miss their best 3-point shooter in Joe Harris who left the team to deal with a family emergency. Without Harris’ outside shooting threat, the Raptors pay more attention to Jarrett Allen close to the basket. Brooklyn maned only 22 points in the paint on Friday. They also made only 16 of their 51 shots (31.4%) from behind the arc while settling for a 33.3% shooting percentage overall. Interim head coach Jacques Vaughn was already dealing with a depleted roster with seven of the players he had in March not making the trip to Orlando. This Nets team lacks scoring options. Brooklyn has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival. The Nets have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two straight games against Atlantic Division rivals. And in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, the Nets have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Toronto may be due for a scoring letdown after making 50.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their eleven games in the bubble. The Raptors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have played 27 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against a divisional rival.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Toronto-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 231 |
|
110-118 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758) in the opening game of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (43-32) enters the playoffs on a two-game losing streak after losing to Phoenix on Thursday by a 128-102 score as an 8-point underdog. Los Angeles (49-23) has won their last two games as well as four of their last five contests with their 107-102 win over Oklahoma City on Friday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks are challenged on the defensive end of the court — but head coach Rick Carlisle will demand more from his team after allowing the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort of their eight games inside the bubble. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And the Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Furthermore, Dallas allowed all eight of their opponents inside the bubble to score at least 110 points — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight contests. Los Angeles is an outstanding defensive team when fully engaged with all their best players. They will probably not have the services of Patrick Beverley for this game as he recovers from his calf injury but they will have Montrezl Harrell returning to the court after clearing the quarantine protocols. But with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, head coach Doc Rivers has two incredible safety valve options who can defend Luka Doncic. The Clippers have played 8 of their last 10 games in the playoffs Under the Total when favored — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home after a narrow win by 6 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last met on August 6th in the bubble when the Clippers easily defeated the Mavericks by a 126-111 score. Dallas has then played 54 of their last 88 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss under Carlisle. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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