At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (711) and the Connecticut Huskies (712) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (32-6) has won nine games in a row after their 72-71 win against Florida Atlantic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. UConn (30-8) has won five games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 — after their 72-59 victory against Miami (FL) as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Diego State saw FAU make 9 of their 22 shots from 3-point range and 44.2% overall on Saturday. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Aztecs’ last seven games. San Diego State still ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to 28.1% shooting from 3-point range. Creighton missed 15 of their 17 shots from behind the arc against them in the Elite Eight after Alabama missed 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point land. The Aztecs have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Diego State is susceptible to scoring droughts. They have not scored more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they have scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They are only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc is unlikely. The Aztecs take many of their shots from the midrange — and now they play a UConn team that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Huskies held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UConn has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. San Diego State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 27 of their last 36 games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 10* CBB San Diego State-UConn CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (711) and the Connecticut Huskies (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (30-8) has won five games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 — after their 72-59 victory against Miami (FL) as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (32-6) has won nine games in a row after their 72-71 win against Florida Atlantic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn has been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Both players are primed for big games tonight. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies — and now San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address this conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they are steamrolling teams again. The Huskies have covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley feels his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacks familiarity with the Huskies approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game is probably at least 68 points — they have reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But is the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they play an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they have scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They are only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc is unlikely. The Aztecs take many of their shots from the midrange — and now they play a UConn team that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs are the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They have endured a difficult schedule — but they have been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all live (and die) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn is a good 3-point shooting team, they probably have the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga shoots 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson makes 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban makes 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs have dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also rank 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They hold their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.

FINAL TAKE: UConn is the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703) and the Connecticut Huskies (704) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (29-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 88-81 upset victory against Texas a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. UConn (29-8) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 82-54 win against Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes nailed 59.2% of their shots against the Longhorns in what was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. Miami (FL) has pulled off three straight upsets against Indiana, Houston, and then Texas while scoring at least 85 points and making at least 48.6% of their shots in each of those games. But the Hurricanes only make 46.6% of their shots away from home which generates 76.2 Points-Per-Game — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods for this team. Miami (FL) has played 6 straight Unders after scoring 75 or more points in three straight games. They also allowed the Longhorns to shoot 50% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Hurricanes have been playing better defense on the road this season. They are holding their opponents to a decisive -11.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. And when playing away from home, the Hurricanes score -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. UConn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 18 of their last 26 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while the Huskies have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. UConn should slow down the Hurricanes' offensive attack since they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. UConn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 10* CBB Miami (FL)-UConn CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703) and the Connecticut Huskies (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (29-8) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 82-54 win against Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (FL) (29-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 88-81 upset victory against Texas a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes nailed 59.2% of their shots against the Longhorns in what was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. Miami (FL) has pulled off three straight upsets against Indiana, Houston, and then Texas while scoring at least 85 points and making at least 48.6% of their shots in each of those games. But the Hurricanes only make 46.6% of their shots away from home which generates 76.2 Points-Per-Game — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods for this team. As it is, Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. When playing away from home, the Hurricanes score -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. But of even greater concern is their defense which ranks just 104th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Miami’s interior defense is the biggest weakness of the team. They allow their opponents to make 51.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 246th in the nation. Now they face a Huskies team with head coach Dan Hurley rotating Adama Sanogo with Donovan Clingan in the middle to ensure the team always has a reliable scorer down low. UConn makes 53.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 50th in the nation. They only made 41.7% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Saturday — so their 28-point victory could have been even worse. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. And while they put up 88 points in their Sweet Sixteen game against Arkansas, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 80 or more points in two straight games. UConn should slow down the Hurricanes' offensive attack since they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in their last ten games. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 15 games against teams outside the Big East.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on a neutral court when listed as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UConn has offered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as a favorite or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday.  This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU looks to pull off a third straight upset victory after stunning Tennessee and then the Wildcats last week. They made 48.1% of their shots against Kansas State which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also outrebounded the Wildcats by a 44-22 margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outrebounding their previous opponent by 20 or more boards. FAU scores -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State is a physical team that brings elite-level defense into this game — and that is the most reliable dynamic in this game. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB FAU-San Diego State CBS-TV Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: FAU made 48.1% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. And they allowed Kansas State to nail 46.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 contests. The Owls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days between contests. FAU is a good defensive team that ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road — and they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. But the Owls score -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average eight or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 345th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after holding five or more straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting from the field. But a concern for San Diego State is that their scoring fall by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road. They have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. San Diego State has played 7 straight Unders on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB outlasted the Wolverines on Tuesday despite them making 41.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to score 85 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home. UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. North Texas has held all four of their opponents in the NIT to no higher than 37.9% shooting after the Badgers only made 37.5% of their shots against them — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting from the field. The Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas is playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team — and they will miss his size in this fourth meeting between these two teams. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th.  The Blazers have scored at least 10 more points against the Mean Green in each of their rematches this season. UAB has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 tournament games. 8* CBB UAB-North Texas ESPN2 Special with the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UAB has seen the Over go 30-14-1 in their last 45 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, with that game with the Wolverines finishing Over the 151-point Total, the Blazers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home — but they are also giving up +3.1 points per 100 possessions when away from home as opposed to when they are playing at home. The Blazers have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against conference opponents. North Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Mean Green have not allowed more than 59 points in their last four games — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points four straight games. North Texas plays outstanding defense — and they combine those skills by playing at a crawl’s pace. But the Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. They are also scoring +2.7 more points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road versus their season average on the road. They are playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team. North Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for just the second time in the last seven days — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th. That game was played on a neutral court where the Blazers have now played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (28-8) has won three games in a row after their 74-68 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite last Wednesday. UAB (28-9) has won three games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 contests — after their 67-59 victory at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley beat the Bearcats despite only making 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are an underrated — and undervalued — team that has won seven of their last eight contests including impressive wins in this tournament at Colorado and at New Mexico who all rank in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-71 teams in the nation as of this writing. The Wolverines won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season crown but failed to reach the NCAA Tournament after getting upset in the Semifinals of the WAC Tournament by Southern Utah. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Led by 7’0 Aziz Bandaogo, Utah Valley has one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses in the nation. He ranks third in the nation with 105 blocks — and Utah Valley blocks 14.8% of opposing team’s shot attempts, ranking third in the nation. They rank fourth in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage at 44.0% — and their opponents make only 30.8% of their shots from behind the arc and 42.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 28th and third in the nation respectively. Overall, the Wolverines rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB held the Commodores to just 33.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Blazers have held their last two opponents in this tournament to just 27 points in the first half — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. UAB ranks only 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Their opponents pull down 31.6% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 279th in the nation. The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point-spread win. UAB has covered their last two games as a favorite in this tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in their previous two games including four of those last five situations this season.

FINAL TAKE: One of the power rankings I follow ranks UAB as the 30th-best team in the nation in their last ten games — but Utah Valley ranks close at 37th in those ratings. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (661) and the North Texas Mean Green (662) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (20-14) is on a three-game winning streak after their 61-58 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog at Oregon last Tuesday. North Texas (29-7) has won six of their last seven games with their 65-59 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point underdog last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Wisconsin pulled the upset against the Ducks despite making only 33.3% of their shots in that which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games — and it is tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last 18 contests. And on the other hand, the Badgers have allowed their last ten opponents on the road to score +4.6 more points per 100 possessions than their seasonal mark. While Wisconsin ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road, that mark drops to 44th in the nation in their last ten games away from home. The Badgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. North Texas only made 35.4% of their shots last week in their win against the Cowboys which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point-spread victory. The Mean Green held Oklahoma State to just 17 points in the first half in that game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their previous opponent to no more than 25 points in the first half.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas has a stout defense but they are allowing +4.1 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road versus on their home court — and that mark rises another +2.0 adjusted points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road. 8* CBB Wisconsin-North Texas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (661) and the North Texas Mean Green (662). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (29-8) has won seven games in a row with their 83-71 victory against Xavier as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (28-7) has won five of their last six games after their 89-75 upset victory against Houston as an 8-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami converted on 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from 3-point range en route to a 51.7% shooting percentage in that game which was the best effort in their last four games. But now they play a stout Longhorns defense that has played three opponents in this Big Dance that entered the game with a top-ten shooting percentage from behind the arc yet held those three foes to 18 of 60 (30%) shooting from 3-point range. The Hurricanes only made 30.2% of their shots in their opening game against Drake — so clunkers are in the repertoire. The Hurricanes have pulled off two straight upset wins after their 85-69 win against Indiana last Sunday — so an emotional letdown may be on the horizon. Miami’s scoring drops by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Texas holds their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home, ranking fourth best in the nation. And in their last ten games overall, the Longhorns boast the second-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Texas is nailing 53.9% of their shots inside the arc this season, ranking 33rd in the nation — and this is an area they should exploit against the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 204th in the nation with their opponents making 51.7% of their shots inside the arc in their last ten games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Texas is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Miami (FL)-Texas CBS-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) and the Texas Longhorns (656) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (28-7) has won five of their last six games after their 89-75 upset victory against Houston as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Texas (29-8) has won seven games in a row with their 83-71 victory against Xavier as a 4-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami converted on 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from 3-point range en route to a 51.7% shooting percentage in that game which was the best effort in their last four games. But now they play a stout Longhorns defense that has played three opponents in this Big Dance that entered the game with a top-ten shooting percentage from behind the arc yet held those three foes to 18 of 60 (30%) shooting from 3-point range. The Hurricanes only made 30.2% of their shots in their opening game against Drake — so clunkers are in the repertoire. As it is, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. The Hurricanes have pulled off two straight upset wins after their 85-69 win against Indiana last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games after two straight upset wins. Miami’s scoring drops by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. But the dirty little secret about this Hurricanes team is how much better their defense has been when playing on the road. Not only are they allowing 11.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts, but they are also giving up -12.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road versus their defensive efficiency at home — and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road in their last ten games ranks 22nd in the nation. Two reasons for this improved play on defense: Miami is limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.4% of their missed shots, ranking 24th in the nation, and their defensive foul rate ranks 11th in the nation in those last ten games. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point-spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. There is some conventional wisdom out there that this Longhorns team wants to play at a fast pace — and that interim head coach Rodney Terry has pushed the pace more since taking over for Chris Beard. The numbers simply do not bare this out. Texas ranks 115th in the nation by averaging 68.5 adjusted possessions per game. In their last ten games, that number drops to 67.5 adjusted possessions per game. There were 72 mutual possessions on Friday against the Musketeers — but their two previous games in the Big Dance had 64 possessions apiece after playing three games in the Big 12 tournament where no more than 68 possessions were played. Does Miami want to push the pace? Maybe — but that will be difficult against a Longhorns’ defense that ranks third in the nation in transition defense. The Hurricanes have averaged 69.7 adjusted possessions in their last ten games on the road. But here are some numbers that scream out to me: Texas scores -7.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They also hold their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home, ranking fourth best in the nation. And in their last ten games overall, the Longhorns boast the second-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Longhorns have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) and the Texas Longhorns (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (657) and the San Diego State Aztecs (658) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. In the end, they held an Alabama team that was scoring 82.3 Points-Per-Game to more than 18 points below their season average. They have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a point spread victory. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Their defense leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They have benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. San Diego State outrebounds their opponents by +4.6 rebounds per game — and Creighton has played 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season Under the Total against opponents who out-refund their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Bluejays play a similar drop-coverage style on defense as the Aztecs that should have success. Creighton has the second lowest-foul rate in the nation — and they are 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.2% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State has played 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. 8* CBB Creighton-San Diego State CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (657) and the San Diego State Aztecs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Dutcher’s team has two significant edges in this game: depth and experience. The Aztecs have a nine-player rotation without any drop-off in talent — they rank 31st in the minute bench minutes. This reliable second unit allows the team to play so physically — and it will certainly help with just a day of rest between games. This is also a very experienced team with seven seniors and two juniors in that regular rotation. One of the power rankings systems I rely on places San Diego State as the ninth-best team in the nation — and the fifth-best team over their last ten games. Those analytics rank them the 11th-best team in the nation when playing on the road led by their defense that leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. I appreciate that this Bluejays team is better than their record given the midseason injury to Ryan Kalkbrenner that kept him out of three of their 12 losses this year. But Creighton has benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. As it is, Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And after their 85-76 win against Baylor last weekend, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after playing two straight games where they scored 75 or more points. Depth is a problem for head coach Greg McDermott’s team as they only have a six-man rotation after the injury to Mason Miller in the NC State game last week. This is a young group with three sophomores and a freshman joining a junior and a senior in their rotation. Stylistically, I worry that the Bluejays lack a Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling. Like Alabama, they live by the 3-point shots with 42.0% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc, ranking 63rd in the nation. But Creighton does not go for offensive rebounds — they pull down only 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 283rd in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 359th in the nation. San Diego State is the wrong opponent to rely almost exclusively on 3-point efficiency — as the Crimson Tide found out. The power rankings referenced above rate the Bluejays as the 14th-best team in the nation — and they fall to 18th in their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, Creighton ranks only 22nd in the nation due to a defense that is giving up +7.7 more points per 100 possessions during that span than they are at home. I think the wrong team is favored in this one — but I am quite happy to take the points for some insurance (and I consider money-line bets with underdogs to be giving away money).

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will have revenge on their minds after losing to Creighton in the Big Dance by a 72-69 score in overtime last March. This veteran team has been carrying that disappointment with them for over a year. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (653) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (654) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (28-8) has won three in a row and nine of their last ten games with their 88-65 victory against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (31-5) has won 12 games in a row after their 79-76 win against UCLA as a closing-line pick ‘em on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UConn outclassed the Razorbacks by making 57.4% of their shots and holding Arkansas to just 31.7% shooting. The Huskies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing a game where they shot 55% or better from the field while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. That 57.4% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 25 games — so regression is likely. UConn ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they maintain that ranking when playing away from home. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on the road for the second time in three days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Gonzaga survived a UCLA team that did not have the 6’10 Adem Bona suit-up due to his bum shoulder (although Bona did play 21 minutes in his previous game after missing the two prior contests). The Bulldogs were able to control the offensive glass by pulling down 16 offensive rebounds representing 45.7% of their missed shots. If Bona plays, those second chances on offense go down significantly. Gonzaga leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do score -3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They also hold their opponents to -1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts. With the Total set in the 150s, it does not take many scoring lulls to impact the scoring pace to get an Under.

FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 8* CBB UConn-Gonzaga TBS O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (653) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (654) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (28-8) has won three in a row and nine of their last ten games with their 88-65 victory against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (31-5) has won 12 games in a row after their 79-76 win against UCLA as a closing-line pick ‘em on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn demonstrated how high the ceiling of their potential is by outclassing a solid Razorbacks team backed by one of the best head coaches in the business in Eric Musselman on Thursday. The Huskies made 57.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 25 games — and they held Arkansas to just 31.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. Typically, I would then expect a team to fall victim to the Regression Gods — but this is a team that ranked number one in their last ten games before that performance in one of the power rankings systems that I lean on. The Huskies did lose four of six games during a tough stretch from late December to mid-January — but four of those games were on the road and all six of those opponents currently rank in the top-82 using the Ken Pomeroy metrics including three teams in his current top-12. Their lone win in that stretch that spoiled their 14-0 start was against Creighton who is also in the Elite Eight. UConn is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a win by 20 or more points. And in their last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, they have covered the point spread in 7 of those games. Gonzaga survived a UCLA team that did not have the 6’10 Adem Bona suit-up due to his bum shoulder (although Bona did play 21 minutes in his previous game after missing the two prior contests). The Bulldogs were able to control the offensive glass by pulling down 16 offensive rebounds representing 45.7% of their missed shots. If Bona plays, those second chances on offense go down — and the Bruins do not go the ten minutes or so in the second half without making a field goal. I think UCLA wins the game if Bona plays 15 minutes in that game. Leaving the emotional disappointment of losing that play, Gonzaga remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have scored 77 or more points in 12 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their vulnerability is on the other end of the court. Gonzaga ranks 73rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with the biggest problem being their half-court defense given their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.5%, ranking 235th in the nation. It is this imbalance that often holds the Bulldogs back against their top competition — they are just 7-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (653) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (651) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (652) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (34-3) has won ten straight games after their 62-55 upset win against Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Kansas State (26-9) has won three in a row and seven of their last nine games after their 98-93 win in overtime against Michigan State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: The narrative and sentiment are with Kansas State with Markquis Nowell living out a Hollywood ending with his return home to New York — but the laptops love FAU in this spot. One of the power rankings systems I lean on ranks the Owls as the ninth-best team in the nation over their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, FAU ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using those same metrics. They stepped up their game in the second half against the Volunteers by scoring 46 points in the final 24 minutes of that game. This team has depth with multiple weapons and ways to score amongst the five players who score at least 7.0 Points-Per-Game. Shot volume is also a hidden strength of this team as they combine a low turnover percentage with a high offensive rebounding mark to ensure they usually get shots off (which are 3-point attempts 44.0% of the time, ranking 35th in the nation). In their last ten games, they are turning the ball over in just 15.4% of their possessions, ranking 73rd in the nation. And after rebounding 37.9% of their missed shots against a big and physical Tennessee team, they are pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots in their last ten games, ranking 40th in the nation during that span. With the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin in the middle, FAU should get points inside against a Wildcats defense that ranks 239th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 52.7% of their shots inside the arc. The Owls are nailing 55.2% of their shot inside the arc in their last ten games on the road. This team also ranks 13th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.7%. Florida Atlantic is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point-spread win. Nowell and this Kansas State team may be due for a letdown after their historic night on Thursday. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. And while Kansas State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Nowell may not be 100% tonight after turning his ankle in that game. Under the hood, the Wildcats have some troubling concerns. When playing on the road, they turn the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions, ranking 302nd in the nation. And while they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games played on a neutral court when favored by up to three points or listed as a pick ‘em.   

FINAL TAKE: FAU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Florida Atlantic Owls (651) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (650) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (649) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 85-76 victory against Baylor as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Princeton (23-8) has won six games in a row after their 78-63 upset victory against Missouri as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Led by the 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton has a significant size advantage against this Princeton team that only has two players over 6’6 in their rotation — and the Tigers do not have a player on the roster taller than 6’9. The Bluejays are a balanced team that ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Princeton may be due for a letdown after three straight upset victories going back to the Championship Game in the Ivy League Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in six straight games. But the Sweet Sixteen is often when Cinderellas from the previous weekend in the Big Dance goes to die. The Tigers will try to shoot their way into the Elite Eight — but they are only making 33.4% o their 3-pointers, ranking 201st in the nation. Even after their recent good run, Princeton ranks only 69th in the nation in their last ten games in the power rankings system I lean on. And when playing on the road, they rank 73rd in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB Princeton-Creighton TBS Special with the Creighton Bluejays (650) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (644) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Houston (33-3) has won 15 of their last 16 games with their 81-64 victory against Auburn as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Miami (FL) (27-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win against Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes shot 48.6% of their shots against the Hoosiers in their best shooting effort in their last three games. They also pulled down 19 offensive rebounds which led to 29 second-chance points. That level of productivity is not likely to continue tonight against this Cougars team that holds their opponents to 27.9% shooting in the midrange. And while Miami (FL) out-rebounded the Hoosiers by a 48-to-31 margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after out-rebounding their last opponent by +15 or more boards. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in both their NCAA Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Miami (FL) sees their scoring drop by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Houston might have played their best 20 minutes of the season in the second half against Auburn by scoring a whopping 41 points against the stout Tigers’ defense. But the defense played a big role in that final 20 minutes as they held Auburn to just four baskets on 17% shooting from the field — and their defense should travel to Kansas City for this contest. It is the Cougars’ defense that leads the way for head coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 36.1%. They lead the nation by blocking 16.8% of their opponent’s shots. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after winning two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. 8* CBB Miami (FL)-Houston CBS-TV Special with the Houston Cougars (644) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) and the Houston Cougars (644) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (27-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win against Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Houston (33-3) has won 15 of their last 16 games with their 81-64 victory against Auburn as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes shot 48.6% of their shots against the Hoosiers in their best shooting effort in their last three games. They also pulled down 19 offensive rebounds which led to 29 second-chance points. That level of productivity is not likely to continue tonight against this Cougars team that holds their opponents to 27.9% shooting in the midrange. Miami (FL) has played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 145-point total installed for that game, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Hurricanes do see their scoring drop by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But while defense seems to be the weakness of head coach Larranaga’s team, they do give up -11.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road on neutral courts or in hostile environments. And Larranaga has his team peaking on defense at this point of the season. Miami (FL) ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games on the road. The improvement is sharpest in defensive rebounding with their last ten opponents away from home rebounding only 24.7% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Miami also ranks ninth in the nation in defensive foul rate in their last ten games on the road. Houston might have played their best 20 minutes of the season in the second half against Auburn by scoring a whopping 41 points against the stout Tigers’ defense. But the defense played a big role in that final 20 minutes as they held Auburn to just four baskets on 17% shooting from the field. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. Houston is scoring -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road in their last ten games as compared to their season scoring efficiency away from home this season. It is the Cougars’ defense that leads the way for head coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 36.1%. They lead the nation by blocking 16.8% of their opponent’s shots. Houston will also bring a slow pace to this game as they rank 342nd in the nation with only 63.3 adjusted possessions per game. The Under is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games against teams with a winning record in the Sampson era.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court laying 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) and the Houston Cougars (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (647) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (648) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (29-6) has won six in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests with their 75-52 win against Furman as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (31-5) has won five games in a row with their 73-51 win against Maryland as an 8.5-point favorite as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide held the Terrapins to just a 35.2% shooting percentage on Saturday — but that was still the best a team has shot against them in their last five games. Alabama will bring a ferocious defense into this game that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they have won nine of their last ten games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Alabama ranks 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc — but they only make 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation — and this mark drops to 33.2% when they are playing away from home. And in their last ten games away from home, they are only making 33.0% go their shots from behind the arc which means they are actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Now here comes this Aztecs team that plays with a style that can give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only do the Aztecs hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. They have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. San Diego State has played ten straight Unders after not allowing more than 57 points in four straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after playing three or more Unders in a row while wreaking havoc with sports bettors whose philosophy is to engage the gambler’s fallacy.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have played 6 straight Unders against teams winning 60 % or more of their games — and they have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Alabama has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court listed as a favorite in the 6.5-9 point range. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (647) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (647) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (648) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (29-6) has won six in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests with their 75-52 win against Furman as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (31-5) has won five games in a row with their 73-51 win against Maryland as an 8.5-point favorite as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama will beat everyone in the country if they are making their 3s — they rank 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc. If they get hot, we’re in trouble (just as we were in catching outlier shooting nights earlier this month with Arizona State in the play-in game and then Northwestern in the first round of the Big Dance). Being on the wrong end of a red-hot shooting night is simply part of the deal when investing daily in college and NBA basketball. The Crimson Tide are a great team because their defense is so good that it offers them a great Plan B if they are only making an average number of their 3-pointers. But Alabama is not likely to cover big point spreads against good teams if they are not nailing a high percentage of the 3s they take. They only make 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation — and this mark drops to 33.2% when they are playing away from home. And in their last ten games away from home, they are only making 33.0% go their shots from behind the arc which means they are actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Alabama ranks 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game. While they have held their last six opponents to 35.2% shooting, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make 40% or more of their shots. Now here comes this Aztecs team that plays with a style that can give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama averages 10 made 3s per game from their 30 shots on average from distance. But the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs crash the glass and outrebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds Per-Game — and the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. San Diego State does not use “math” to their advantage on offense since they like to take midrange jumpers — but  Alabama’s focus on taking away from shots from 3-point land plays into the Aztecs' hands in this matchup. The Crimson Tide are due for a visit from the Regression Gods in this regard as the 32% their opponents are shooting from midrange deviates significantly from the expected 38% field goal percentage based on national averages from where those shots are being taken. Alabama also ranks 290th in the nation in post-up defense — and they foul too much, ranking 222nd in the nation in defensive foul rate. San Diego State has not allowed more than 57 points in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs’ style of play has helped them generate a 12-3-2 ATS mark in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year is with the San Diego State Aztecs (647) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (31-5) has won 14 of their last 15 games after their 68-63 victory against Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (30-5) has won 11 games in a row with their 84-81 victory against TCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): The first order of business in assessing UCLA for this game is taking stock of their injury situation. Freshman Jayden Clark is already out the season. Adem Bona missed two games in a row with a shoulder — but he did return to the court on Saturday to play 21 minutes (which is his typical usage). While he is listed as questionable, it is reasonable to assume that Bona can play again five days later. The primary importance for the 6’10 freshman is to play defense against Drew Timme — and an impaired shoulder does not impact his defensive effectiveness as much as it would if his shooting was needed tonight. David Singleton is also questionable after rolling his ankle late in Saturday’s game. Singleton claims that “I’m fine,” for what that is worth. It’s another Patrick Mahomes situation where are guessing at the severity of an ankle injury from television. Head coach Mick Cronin confirmed that the ankle is not broken. He probably plays but is not 100% (like Armando Bacot for North Carolina in last year’s National Championship Game). Singleton is a 6’4 senior who is the team’s best 3-point shooter — but he is still a secondary scorer. I waited until Thursday morning to confirm this play — and there is no morning update so it will likely be a game-time decision for both players. Even if both players do not play, Cronin still has answers with players who have been consistently in the rotation. Kenneth Nwuba is a 6’10 senior who played more minutes in the two games Bona recently missed. Freshman Dylan Andrews gets more time on the court if Singleton is out. The injuries are mounting, but I think the crisis point for Cronin is he loses one more rotation player (assuming Bona and Singleton do not play). The key players for this team remain Jaime Jaquez, Jr. and Tyger Campbell — if either of these players got hurt, it would be devastating. Jaquez, Jr. may be the best player in college basketball this season — and Campbell might be the best point guard in the country. So, let’s keep that perspective in mind. These two have now led the Bruins to their third straight Sweet Sixteen. UCLA will bring an elite defense into this game that is second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They allowed Northwestern to make 37.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread. Their outstanding defense helps them rank third in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing away from home. UCLA is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have scored 77 or more points in 11 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their vulnerability is on the other end of the court. Gonzaga ranks 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with the biggest problem being their half-court defense given their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51.7%, ranking 245th in the nation. It is this imbalance that often holds the Bulldogs back against their top competition — they are just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. I don’t like this matchup for head coach Mark Few’s team. Who will guard Jacquez? UCLA has multiple perimeter players who will likely frustrate the Zags. Furthermore, the Bruins’ elite transition defense will slow down the Gonzaga offensive attack and force them to execute in the half-court. Finally, while Timme leads a formidable frontcourt, the Bulldogs’ backcourt may get exposed in this matchup. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Cronin, Jaquez, and Campbell will all have revenge on their minds after losing in overtime to Gonzaga in the Final Four of the 2021 Big Dance. They then lost the rematch the following November to that Bulldogs team — but that group was probably better than Few’s team now with future NBA players Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard (and that 2020-21 team also had Jalen Suggs and Corey Krispert). Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Bruins have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (636) in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: FAU (33-3) has won nine games in a row — and 12 of their last 13 games — with their 78-70 victory against Fairleigh Dickinson as a 16-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (25-10) has won three of their last four games with their 65-52 upset win against Duke as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS: FAU is a dangerous underdog in this game. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Owls are a good shot volume team who will take advantage of most of their scoring opportunities against the great defense they will face with the Volunteers. FAU only turns the ball over in 16.4% of their possessions — ranking 64th in the nation. They also pull down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 97th in the nation — and they have 33 offensive rebounds in their two games in this Big Dance.  And this is a team that launches 3s with 43.8% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation. The Owls make 36.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 41st in the nation. FAU’s outside shooters complement Vladislav Goldin, a 7’1 big man who gives them a legitimate scoring threat inside. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after upsetting Duke and now playing a nine-seed mid-major. As it is, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Vols miss their spark plug on offense in point guard Zakai Zeigler who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late February. They have only scored 123 combined points in their two Big Dance games. Tennessee sees their scoring drop by -8.0 points per possession when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) and the Tennessee Volunteers (636) in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: FAU (33-3) has won nine games in a row — and 12 of their last 13 games — with their 78-70 victory against Fairleigh Dickinson as a 16-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (25-10) has won three of their last four games with their 65-52 upset win against Duke as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS: FAU held Fairleigh Dickinson to just 38.0% shooting in their victory on Sunday. Four of their last five opponents have not shot better than 38.1% from the field. The Owls rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they give up -1.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. But Florida Atlantic scores -5.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road on neutral courts or in hostile environments. Tennessee only made 40.4% of their shots in their upset win against Duke — but they nailed 9 of their 21 shots from behind the arc to secure the victory. The Vols miss their spark plug on offense in point guard Zakai Zeigler who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late February. They have only scored 123 combined points in their two Big Dance games. The Volunteers lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also enjoy the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. But Tennessee sees their scoring drop by -8.0 points per possession when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. FAU has played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. 8* CBB FAU-Tennessee TBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (627) minus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (628) in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (27-8) pulled off their second-straight upset in this tournament with their 81-69 upset win at Colorado as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (23-12) has won four of their last five games after their 79-65 win at Hofstra as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): Utah Valley followed up their 83-69 upset win at New Mexico with their upset victory in Boulder against the Buffaloes. Colorado did make 46.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 28 games. The Wolverines rank fourth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% propelled by an interior defense that holds their opponents to 43.1% shooting of their 2-point shots, also ranking fourth in the nation. Utah Valley State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. Cincinnati made 52.6% of their shots against the Pride which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held Hofstra to 37.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough road assignment for the Bearcats having to play in the small Wolverines’ gym seating 8500 fans — and it is telling that they are underdogs (or a pick ‘em) in this game. Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when favored. 8* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Valley Wolverines (627) minus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (615) and the Oregon Ducks (616) in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (19-14) has won three of their last four games after their 75-71 win against Liberty as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Oregon (21-14) has won two straight games — and six of their last seven contests — after their 68-54 win against Central Florida as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Wisconsin is back to full strength after dealing with injuries during the Big Ten conference play — and they shot a season-high 54.0% from the field in their win against Liberty. Now they go on the road where they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total — and the Over is 22-7-1 in their last 30 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. The Badgers score +6.8 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home — but they also give up +5.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing in hostile environments. Oregon entered the season with high expectations — but injuries and inconsistencies kept this team from making the NCAA Tournament. They beat Arizona in mid-January — but they also suffered two three-game losing streaks. The Ducks are dealing with some injuries with three regulars in their rotation, Will Richardson, N’Faly Dante, and Jermaine Couisnard, all questionable to play tonight. But for big programs like Oregon, the NIT is an opportunity to establish momentum for next season by giving the younger players an opportunity — and this trio of players has yet to play in the NIT due to these injuries. The absence of the 6’11 Dante has created more opportunities for a pair of seven-footers in Nate Brittle and Kel’el Ware. Brittle is a sophomore who has scored 21 and 17 points for the Ducks in their two NIT victories. Ware is a freshman who has added 11 and 9 points in the NIT. Without Richardson and Couisnard, some veterans have stepped up with senior Quincy Guerrier scoring 16 points against Central Florida and senior Rivaldo Soares contributing 21 points in their first NIT game which was an 84-58 win against UC-Irvine. Remember, Oregon was considered to have one of the top ten rosters in the nation entering the season. The Ducks make 46.7% of their shots at home which results in them scoring 73.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring a robust 116.7 points per 100 possessions when playing at home, ranking 31st in the nation over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin takes 23 shots from behind the arc per game while Oregon takes 22 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more shots from 3-point land per game — and the Ducks have played 17 of their last 23 games after 15 games into the season Over the Total against teams who take 21 or more 3-pointers per game. 8* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (615) and the Oregon Ducks (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (616) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (615) in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. THE SITUATION: Oregon (21-14) has won two straight games — and six of their last seven contests — after their 68-54 win against Central Florida as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Wisconsin (19-14) has won three of their last four games after their 75-71 win against Liberty as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon entered the season with high expectations — but injuries and inconsistencies kept this team from making the NCAA Tournament. They beat Arizona in mid-January — but they also suffered two three-game losing streaks. The Ducks are dealing with some injuries with three regulars in their rotation, Will Richardson, N’Faly Dante, and Jermaine Couisnard, all questionable to play tonight. But for big programs like Oregon, the NIT is an opportunity to establish momentum for next season by giving the younger players an opportunity — and this trio of players has yet to play in the NIT due to these injuries. The absence of the 6’11 Dante has created more opportunities for a pair of seven-footers in Nate Brittle and Kel’el Ware. Brittle is a sophomore who has scored 21 and 17 points for the Ducks in their two NIT victories. Ware is a freshman who has added 11 and 9 points in the NIT. Without Richardson and Couisnard, some veterans have stepped up with senior Quincy Guerrier scoring 16 points against Central Florida and senior Rivaldo Soares contributing 21 points in their first NIT game which was an 84-58 win against UC-Irvine. Remember, Oregon was considered to have one of the top ten rosters in the nation entering the season. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Playing at home at Knight Arena certainly helps where they are holding their opponents to just 38.7% shooting which has resulted in only 63.3 Points-Per-Game. They have a 15-5 record with a +10.5 net point differential. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 home games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51% to 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Wisconsin is back to full strength after dealing with injuries during the Big Ten conference play — but this is not one of head coach Greg Gard’s more talented teams. They shot a season-high 54.0% from the field in their win against Liberty — but that was at home where they have a 50.4% effective field goal percentage. But on the road, the Badgers are making only 41.0% of their shots. Wisconsin is 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60% to 80% of their games. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. If Richardson, Dante, and/or Couisnard can play tonight, that is even better for Altman. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (616) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (851) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (22-12) has won two of their last three games with their 72-70 victory against Arizona State as a 5-point favorite on Friday. Gonzaga (29-5) has won ten games in a row with their 82-70 victory against Grand Canyon as a 15-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs tend to be overvalued by the betting market. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory. Gonzaga has scored at least 77 points in ten straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games on the road after scoring at least 75 points in three games in a row. And in their last 5 games on the road for a second game in three days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they score -3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. While head coach Mark Few’s team is outstanding on offense, they are lacking on the other end of the court. They rank 81st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams outside the West Coast Conference — and they are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. TCU survived the Sun Devils’ more difficult defense despite making only 35.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Their game with Arizona State finished Under the Total — and the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. TCU has covered the point spread just once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing for the second time in the last eight days. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is balanced. They rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They force turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 23rd in the nation. They pull down 32.5% of their missed shots, ranking 58th in the nation. They can struggle against teams with an elite defense — but that is not this Gonzaga team.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick 'em. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the TCU Horned Frogs (851) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (851) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (22-12) has won two of their last three games with their 72-70 victory against Arizona State as a 5-point favorite on Friday. Gonzaga (29-5) has won ten games in a row with their 82-70 victory against Grand Canyon as a 15-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs survived their game with the Sun Devils despite allowing them to make 48.1% of their shots. TCU ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory as the favorite where they did not cover the points spread. And while the Horned Frogs have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Gonzaga has played six straight Unders after winning five or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they score -3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. Gonzaga has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games.

 FINAL TAKE: TCU has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in March — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB TCU-Gonzaga Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (851) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (839) plus the point(s) versus the Indiana Hoosiers (840) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (26-7) has won three of their last four games with their 63-56 win against Drake as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. Indiana (23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 71-60 victory against Kent State as a 4-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Miami survived their game with the Bulldogs despite shooting a season-low 30.4% from the field. They should shoot better tonight and approach or exceed their 48.1% field goal percentage on the season. The Hurricanes rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4%, ranking 24th in the nation. Their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road ranks 18th in the nation — and it is due to their improved play on defense when playing away from home. Miami (FL) allows -11.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit victory. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road — which makes them a questionable favorite in this game. And while they improve to 26th in the nation in their last ten games when playing away from home, the Hurricanes rank 14th in the nation in their last ten games on the road. Indiana scores -4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. They are only making 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc on the road in their last ten games, ranking 237th in the nation during that span.

FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (839) plus the point(s) versus the Indiana Hoosiers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (843) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (844) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Farleigh Dickinson (21-15) has won five of their last six games after their 63-58 upset victory against Purdue as a 23-point underdog on Friday. Florida Atlantic (32-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 66-65 upset victory against Memphis as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Part of the Knights' success in shocking the Boilermakers was holding them to 35.8% shooting — although Purdue’s 19.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc had something to do with some nervy Boilermakers’ shooters. Fairleigh Dickinson will continue to work hard on the defensive end of the court. The Knights have held their last four opponents to no better than 41.9% shooting and no more than 67 points — and these last four opponents have averaged just 59 Points-Per-Game. But while Fairleigh Dickinson’s hopes rely on their 3-point shooting, they only made 7 of their 23 (30.4%) shots from behind the arc and settled for a 38.7% shooting clip overall on Friday. The Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning three of their last four games. FAU beat Memphis with the Tigers making 43.1% of their shots which was actually the Owls’ worst defensive effort in their last four games. In their last ten games on the road, FAU ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to just 27.7% shooting from behind the arc which is the seventh lowest mark in the nation during that span. But the Owls also score -4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road on neutral courts or in hostile environments. The Under is 19-7-1 in FAU’s last 27 games on a neutral court — and they have played 7 straight Unders on a neutral court with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida Atlantic has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Second Round NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (843) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (849) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (850) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-12) has won four of their last five games after their 72-63 win against NC State as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Baylor (23-10) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 74-56 win against UC Santa Barbara as a 10.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS PLUS THE POINTS: Creighton was undervalued as a six seed: one of the power rankings systems I use rates them as the 14th best team in the nation, one spot ahead of Baylor at #15. The Bluejays are a balanced team that ranks in the top-27 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency using those metrics. They match up well with the Bears whose biggest weakness is their interior defense which has open spaces from the zone defenses head coach Scott Drew likes to deploy. Baylor ranks 315th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.4% of their shots inside the arc. Creighton converts on 54.8% of their 2-point shots, ranking 22nd in the nation. The Bears allow their opponents to make 45.4% of their shots — and head coach Greg McDermott’s team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. The Bluejays are outstanding on the other end of the court where they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Baylor wants to shoot 3s when they have the ball — they rank 31st in the nation with a 37.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc. But Creighton makes it hard for their opponents to get off 3-pointers as they rank ninth in the nation with their opponents only taking 29.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and their opponents only generate 27.6% of their points from made 3-pointers, the 289th lowest mark in the nation. And while the Bears crash the glass by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots, ranking 15th in the nation, the Bluejays limit their opponents to rebounding a mere 23.3% of their missed shots in their road games, ranking fifth best in the nation. This combination of characteristics has helped Creighton cover the point spread in 31 of their last 48 games against teams with a winning record. Baylor made 54.9% of their shots against the Gauchos but that was the best shooting effort in their last 27 games They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. And in their last 7 games when playing for just the second time in eight days, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Second Round NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (849) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (850). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (846) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (845) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Xavier (26-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 72-67 victory against Kent State as a 12-point favorite on Friday. Pittsburgh (24-11) has won two games in a row with their 59-41 upset victory against Iowa State as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Panthers have pulled off two straight upsets in this tournament after beating Mississippi State by a 60-59 score as a 2.5-point underdog in a play-in game on Wednesday. Head coach Jeff Capel has pulled off a minor miracle this week in getting his team to play better defense. They held the Cyclones to 23.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort for them all season. And when they limited the Bulldogs to 38.1% shooting earlier in the week, that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh faithful, the bad shooting from Mississippi State and Iowa State deserves some of the credit/blame for those numbers. The Panthers enters this tournament allowing their previous five opponents to make 50.3% of their shots which resulted in 85.0 Points-Per-Game that they were giving up. In their loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils made 62.1% of their shots. Now Pittsburgh has to play a Musketeers team that ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Panthers enter this game ranked 127th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so I do expect a visit from the Regression Gods this afternoon. Furthermore, the Panthers have pulled off these upsets despite making a season-low 34.1% of their shots against the Cyclones after a 38.9% shooting effort against Mississippi State. And there is nothing really under the hood that is explaining these victories outside facing opponents that were even more dreadful shooting the basketball. Pitt has only pulled down 13 offensive rebounds in both games. The Bulldogs turned the ball over too much on Wednesday but Iowa State committed only eight turnovers representing 12.9% of their possessions. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after holding their previous opponent to a field goal percentage of 28% or less. Xavier is a rock-solid team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using the Ken Pomeroy metrics. The Musketeers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their previous one as a favorite but not covering the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.4% — and they are fourth in the nation with a 39.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc. on the road, Xavier still ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with a 54.6% effective field goal percentage — and their 3-point shooting actually improves to 40.2%, ranking fourth in the nation. The Musketeers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road in the postseason.

FINAL TAKE: Xavier is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Pittsburgh-Xavier CBS-TV Special with the Xavier Musketeers (846) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (805) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (806) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (22-12) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 upset win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Alabama (30-5) has won eight of their last nine games with their 96-75 win against Texas A&M Corpus Christi as a 24-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland will present a stiff challenge to the Crimson Tide — they rank 21st in Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency rankings system. The Terrapins rank in the top-33 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. This balanced and well-rounded team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring at least 90 or more points in their last game.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (812) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (811) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (27-8) is on a five-game winning streak after their 81-61 win against Colgate as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. Penn State (23-13) has won nine of their last 11 games with their 76-59 upset victory against Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Des Moines, Iowa.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas held the Raiders to just 43.1% shooting which was actually the highest-opponent field goal percentage in their last five games. Colgate missed 12 of their 15 shots from behind the arc. The Longhorns rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when they are playing on the road. They have not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. Texas has played six straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Penn State made 48.2% of their shots in their upset win against the Aggies while nailing 13 of their 22 (59.1%) from behind the arc. Not only was that the best shooting effort in their last four games but their 3-point shooting performance was well above their 37.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing on the road. Texas A&M only made 33.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage in the Nittany Lions' last three games. But defense is not a strength for Penn State which ranks 106th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Nittany Lions have played their last two games Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Penn State lives and dies by the 3-point shot — and they partied like it was 1999 on Thursday against the Aggies. But when the shots stop falling and the hangover arrives, they lack a credible Plan B. They rank 357th in the nation by rebounding 19.4% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They rank 363rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.6% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament. 20* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Longhorns (812) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (814) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (813) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri (25-9) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 76-65 upset win against Utah State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Princeton (22-8) is on a five-game winning streak after their 59-55 victory against Arizona as a 15-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

REASONS TO TAKE MISSOURI MINUS THE POINTS: The Tigers from the SEC should build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Missouri is one of the best offensive teams in the nation — not only do they shoot the ball well but they protect the basketball to help take full advantage of each of their possessions. When playing on the road on neutral courts or hostile environments, they rank 24th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are top-30 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc when away from home. They also only turn the ball over in 15.6% of their possessions, ranking 26th in the nation. This combination of qualities helps Mizzou to rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They also force turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road, ranking seventh in the nation. While one of the power rankings I track considers Missouri the 52nd-best team in the nation, they zoom up to 24th in the nation when assessing play on the road. Princeton has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Yale as the host team in the Ivy League Tournament last Saturday before their win against Arizona on Thursday. But that triumph may have had more to do with the Wildcats giving that game away. Arizona only shot 42.1% from the field while missing 33 shots. The Wildcats turned the ball over 13 times and only pulled down seven offensive rebounds. They had six of their shots blocked while only blocking one shot themselves. The Tigers from the Ivy League only shot 40.6% from the field while converting a mere 4 of their 25 (16%) shots from behind the arc. They have only made 29.8% of their shots from 3-point range in their last ten games away from home, ranking 317th in the nation. Princeton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning five or more games in a row. This team ranks just 86th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Princeton makes 45.5% of their shots — but Missouri has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Head coach Denis Gates 'team has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 20* CBB Princeton-Missouri TNT Special with the Missouri Tigers (814) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (813). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (802) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (801) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (28-6) has won five straight games — and 11 of their last 12 contests — after their 63-57 victory against the College of Charleston as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Furman (28-7) comes off their 68-67 upset victory against Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: The Mountain West Conference champions are peaking at the right time of the season - and they should continue their momentum in this game. The Aztecs are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Brian Dutcher’s team is tightening things up on the defensive end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 35.3% shooting which is resulting in them only scoring 54.6 Points-Per-Game. San Diego State has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games while playing nine games in a row Under the Total. They have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They now rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Furman lives by their 3-point shooting — they rank 12th in the nation by taking 46.5% of their shots from behind the arc. The Paladins attempt 27 shots from 3-point range per game — and they average eight made 3s per contest. But the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against opponents who attempt 21 or more shots from distance per contest — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. San Diego State limits their opponents to just 28.9% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking sixth best in the nation. The College of Charleston entered their game with the Aztecs on Thursday ranked ninth in the nation by taking 47.4% of their shots from behind the arc — but San Diego State held them to just a 5 of 24 (20.8%) shooting clip on those shots. Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in eight days. The Paladins have played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games on the road after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an under of six points or less. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games played on a neutral court when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Furman-San Diego State CBS-TV Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (802) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (801). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (771) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (772) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kent State (28-6) has won six games in a row and 10 of their last 11 contests after their 93-78 victory against Toledo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in a pick ‘em contest last Saturday. Indiana (22-11) was on a two-game winning streak before their 77-73 upset loss to Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State is a veteran team that will be very confident that they can pull the upset tonight. They lost to Houston and Gonzaga by just five points and seven points earlier in the season. They engage in a style of play that produces upsets. They are a very good defensive team that led the Mid-American Conference and ranked 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 20th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.6% of their opponent’s possession. They were second in the MAC by pulling down 33.0% of their missed shots. And they can slow games down with their tough defense — their opponents averaged 17.7 seconds per possession, the 201st slowest mark in the nation. The Golden Flashes are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after a point-spread victory. They have scored at least 79 points in six straight games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games, they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring 75 or more points in three straight games. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss in their previous game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Hoosiers are a good team that one of the power rankings I use has as the 31st team in the nation — but they do fall to 42nd in the nation when playing away from home. Kent State ranks 76th in that power rankings system — and they jump to 66th in the nation when playing away from home. Indiana’s style of play makes them vulnerable if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 28.0% of their missed shots, ranking 201st in the nation. They force turnovers in just 16.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 295th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: As a team from the Mid-American Conference, Kent State would love to shock a blue blood Big Ten program. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams outside the MAC. They are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when seeded at four or higher (better) in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB First Round NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year with the Kent State Golden Flashes (771) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (797) and the TCU Horned Frogs (798) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona State (23-12) has won three of their last four games after their 98-73 victory as a 2-point favorite in their First Four NCAA Tournament game on Tuesday. TCU (21-12) has lost two of their last three games after a 66-60 loss to Texas as a 1.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arizona State torched the nets by making 63.6% of their shots against the Wolf Pack including 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. That was, by far, their best offensive effort of the season. But this team possesses an effective field goal percentage of just 47.3% when playing on the road, ranking 269th in the nation. The Sun Devils have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. TCU only shot 35.6% from the field in their loss to the Longhorns last week. This team lost their best inside presence when 6’11 Eddie Lampkin left the program a few weeks ago. They rank 218th in the nation in their last ten games on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 48.9%. The Horned Frogs have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a loss to a Big 12 rival.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 8* CBB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (797) and the TCU Horned Frogs (798). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (FL) has been one of the most effective teams when playing away from home this season — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on a neutral court or hostile environment. It starts with the efficiency of their offense as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Drake ranks 50th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those same power rankings — but they drop to 70th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from using those metrics. They give up +3.0 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they are allowing +5.4 more points per 100 possessions versus playing at home in their last ten games on the road. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 8* CBB Drake-Miami (FL) TBS-TV Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake won all three of their games in their Arch Madness by at least 12 points while shooting 47.1% or better from the field in each game. But the Bulldogs have then played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning at least three games in a row by double-digits. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight games. Drake has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Bulldogs’ efficiency on offense drops by -2.4 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game. The Hurricanes tighten things up on that end of the court tonight as they have played 8 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after slowing 85 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. According to their Adjusted Efficiency numbers, the Hurricanes allow  -10.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total played on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: NC State (23-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 80-54 loss to Clemson as a 1-point underdog in the ACC Tournament last Thursday. Creighton (21-12)  had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-60 upset loss to Xavier as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big East Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State only made 35.0% of their shots against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They also allowed Clemson to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Wolfpack gets to take advantage of the big reset that the NCAA Tournament offers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a team that is better than their overall record since starting forward Jack Clark has missed 11 games earlier in the season to injury — and three of NC State’s losses were without a healthy Clark. The laptops like this team because they are solid across the aboard in most areas (except for getting to the free throw line). They rank in the top-118 teams in the nation in both forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds — so they have credible Plan Bs and Cs if their shots are not falling. They also rank second in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.4% of their possessions — so they usually take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They have two high quality guards in Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner. NC State presents a challenge matchup against the Bluejays since they are willing to take so many 3s. The Wolfpack attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game while nailing an average of eight per contest. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who throw up 21 or more 3-point attempts per contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who nail eight or more 3-pointers per game. The Bluejays are a good team but they can be too dependent on making their shots since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. Creighton ranks 352nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.3% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 271st in the nation by rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. Additionally, they rank 290th in the nation in getting to the foul line. In their last four losses, they shot only 28.7% from behind the arc — missing 72 of their 101 shots from 3-point land in those four games. The Bluejays may struggle getting off the mat after getting thumped by the Musketeers in the Big East tournament. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored on a neutral court by 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. Vermont (23-10) rides a 15-game winning streak after their 72-59 victory against UMass-Lowell as a 6.5-point favorite in the America East Conference Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. Marquette (28-6) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 68-51 victory against Xavier as a 2-point favorite in the Big East Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Vermont took the America East title last week despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Catamounts typically feed off their momentum as they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. Vermont will attempt to steal this game by making 3-pointers from their five-out offensive scheme. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 38.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 36th in the nation. Marquette is vulnerable against sharpshooters like this — they allow their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 58 of their last 90 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Vermont has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB Vermont-Marquette CBS-TV Special with the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (25-9) saw their four-game winning streak end in the SEC Championship Game in an 82-63 loss to Alabama as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Penn State (22-13) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss to Purdue as a 7.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game last Sunday, This game will be played on a neutral court at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: I am wary of upstarts entering the Big Dance after a surprising run in their conference tournament — and the Nittany Lions fit this profile to a T. This group went from being on the bubble last week at this time to a trendy pick to reach the Elite Eight in some (woozy) circles. Slow down, everybody. Penn State’s three victories in the Big Ten tournament against Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana benefited from those three teams combining to make only 14 of their 59 shots from behind the arc (23.7%). The expected score projections based on shot quality and national field goal percentage averages (the equivalent of expected goals in soccer) indicate that Penn State should have lost each of the games during their five-game winning streak. Now this team makes a rare appearance in the NCAA Tournament — and they are primed for a letdown given the personality of this team. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. And while this “red-hot” Penn State team has covered the points spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This is a team who lives or dies by their outside shooting — and those are very vulnerable teams playing in single-elimination games in unfamiliar environments. The Nittany Lions rank 362nd in the nation in forcing turnovers and 362nd in the nation in offensive rebounding (and they are the worst team from a Power Five conference in both categories). They also rank 361st in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Instead, Plan A is to launch 3s, and Plan B is to launch another 3. But Penn State’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency does drop by 2.4 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. And they do not complement this approach with stout defense. Their small-ball style that facilitates their 3-point shooting has them vulnerable inside — their Big Ten opponents made 51.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 13th in the conference. In their last ten games playing away from home, the Nittany Lions ranks 173rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now here comes a Texas A&M team that beat two teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top-five teams in the nation according to his KenPom analytics. The Aggies also beat Arkansas and Auburn twice who rank in his top-29. They only made 29.7% of their shots against the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game which was a season-low for them — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Another power rankings system I use puts this team 9th in the nation in their last ten games — and they also rank them 10th in the nation in their last ten games when only evaluating play away from home. Head coach Buzz Williams’ style of play travels — this team crashes the glass, forces, turnovers, and gets to the free throw line. The Aggies rank second in the nation by pulling down 38.0% of their missed shots. They rank third in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they led the SEC by making 77.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Texas A&M is not a great shooting team — but they will have a size edge tonight with a Plan B, C, and D if their shots are not falling. This formula has helped them cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first NCAA Tournament appearance for this team under head coach Buzz Williams — but the seeds were planted last year when the Aggies reached the title game of the NIT to give his group deep tournament experience. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Round One NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 71-66 victory against South Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship Game as a 1.5-point favorite back on March 6th. Tennessee (23-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 79-71 upset loss to Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette outlasted the Jaguars to win the Sun Belt tournament despite allowing them to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win.  And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 37.2% of their 3-pointers which could be their recipe in pulling the upset. The Volunteers are learning to live life without their starting point guard and leader in assists, Zakai Zeigler, who has not played in their last three games — and his loss was critical in their upset loss to the Tigers in the SEC tournament last week. Tennessee can fall into scoring lulls — they rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5% when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler against an undermanned Tennessee team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 8* CBB UL-Lafeyette-Tennessee CBS-TV Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (749) and the Houston Cougars (750) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-12) has won five games in a row after taking the Horizon League tournament title with their 63-61 victory against Cleveland State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 7th. Houston (31-3) saw their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 75-65 upset loss to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston may continue to be without their top playmaker on offense in Marcus Sasser who injured himself in the semifinals of the AAC tournament. Even if the groin injury that kept him out of the title game against the Tigers last Sunday, it is not likely he will play a ton of minutes with an important game looming on Saturday. The Cougars only made 31.2% of their shots against Memphis on Sunday — and that effort came two games after they only shot 28.1% from the field in their Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament against East Carolina. They also let the Tigers make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team should tighten things up on defense — they rank second in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.4% when playing away from home. The Under is 6-1-1 in Houston’s last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Under is also 42-20-1 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Kentucky has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. Things could get dicey for the Norse tonight when considering that they rank 315th in the nation with a 45.5% shooting percentage inside the arc when playing away from home. They have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Norse have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and the Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the College of Charleston Cougars (737) and the San Diego State Aztecs (738) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: College of Charleston (31-3) has won ten straight games after their 63-58 victory against UNC-Wilmington in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Finals as a 9.5-point favorite on March 7th. San Diego State (27-6) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 62-57 victory against Utah State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars only made 40.4% of their shots to beat UNC-Wilmington last week — but that was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Under is 3-0-1 in the College of Charleston’s last 4 games after a straight-up win. This team is playing better defense as of late after holding the Seahawks to 40.7% shooting from the field. While they rank 70th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improve to 58th in the nation in their last ten games when looking exclusively at defenses on a neutral court or the road in a hostile environment. But the Cougars rank just 106th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. San Diego State has played 20 of their last 30 games on the road Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Howard Bison (757) and the Kansas Jayhawks (758) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Howard (22-12) rides a five-game winning streak after their 65-64 win against Norfolk State in the Championship Game of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas (27-7) lost in the Big 12 Championship Game to Texas by a 76-56 score as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks’ first order of business is to tighten things up on defense after they allowed the Longhorns to nail 50.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Jayhawks should play much better on that end of the court this afternoon as they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. But Kansas also sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -4.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. The Jayhawks have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Howard has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Bison have played three straight Unders after holding Norfolk State to just 37.9% shooting which was still their worst defensive effort in their last four games.

At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Furman (27-7) has won six games in a row after their 88-79 victory over UT-Chattanooga to win the Southern Conference Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite on March 6th. Virginia (25-7) was on a five-game winning streak before their 59-49 loss to Duke in the Finals of the ACC Tournament as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PALADINS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia only shot 33.3% from the field against the Blue Devils on Saturday — and they are ripe to get upset this afternoon if their shots are not falling. While the Cavaliers boast a 52.9% effective field goal percentage when playing at home, that mark drops to 49.8% when they are playing away from home in hostile environments or neutral courts, ranking 149th in the nation. Virginia is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. That game with Duke finished far below the 124-point total for that contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, the Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games this season after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. As it is, Virginia’s style of play makes them vulnerable to upsets in one-and-done situations like this. They play at a snail's pace — they rank 343rd in the nation by averaging 19.4 seconds per possession. This results in 61.5 adjusted possessions per game in their contests this season, ranking 360th. Fewer possessions in a game allow for more short-term variance — and what if Virginia’s shots are not falling? They do not create additional scoring chances on the offensive end as they only pull down 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 270th in the nation. And they rank 249th in the nation with a 70.1% mark at the charity stripe. Head coach Tony Bennett’s team is known for their pack-line defense that can make it tough for teams to find open looks inside — but teams that are comfortable shooting from distance can find success. The Cavaliers see 39.7% of their opponent’s shots come from behind the arc, ranking 268th in the nation. And here comes the Paladins who rank 13th in the nation by taking 46.4% of their shots from 3-point range. Head coach Bob Richey deploys a five-out system to facilitate this outside shooting — and six of his players have nailed 20 or more 3-pointers this season. Furman also leads the nation with a 59.1% shooting percentage inside the arc with this five-out scheme helpful in creating opening looks closer to the basket. The Paladins do a solid job of creating extra-scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. They led the Southern Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. They force turnovers in 18.4% of their opponent’s possessions which is above the national average. Virginia is adept at forcing turnovers — but Furman was second in the Southern Conference by turning the ball over in just 14.7% of their possessions. They also make 74.6% of their free throws. In their last ten games away from home, the Paladins' Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranks sixth in the nation. They come into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win while covering the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory.

FINAL TAKE: Furman has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 opening-round games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Nevada (22-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after losing to San Jose State in overtime by an 81-77 score as a 4-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament last Thursday. Arizona State (22-12) had won two in a row before their 78-59 loss to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The betting public seems to generally consider Nevada an unworthy recipient of an NCAA Tourney bid when compared to slighted teams like Rutgers or Oklahoma State. The Mountain West Conference is not given much respect given recent results in the Big Dance. And the Wolf Pack got upset in three straight games against non-NCAA Tournament teams coming into this game. They got upset against Wyoming before losing in overtime to UNLV in their last regular season game before getting upset against the Spartans last Thursday. Perhaps the Regression Gods were playing head coach Steve Alford’s team back from some good luck regarding close wins earlier in the season? Those things tend to even out. Contrary to the betting public, the laptops like the Mountain West Conference and this Nevada. Ken Pomeroy’s ranking system currently has the Wolf Pack as his 44th team in the nation — and the Sun Devils only rank 70th according to his metrics. Nevada has impressive wins against San Diego State and Utah State that Pomeroy ranks in his top-18 teams — and they lost in overtime on the neutral court to a Kansas State team that Pomeroy ranks 25th in the nation. There is nothing like a First Four NCAA Tournament game to quickly reverse a lazy narrative while igniting some momentum for this team after a bad start to the month. As it is, the Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row to conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight upset losses. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row by six points or less. Nevada is 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they are not a good matchup for this Arizona State team. The Sun Devils want to create scoring opportunities in open play to take advantage of their speed and athleticism. They thrive when forcing turnovers — but the Wolf Pack rank 25th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.2 % of their possessions. Nevada also ranks fifth in the nation in opponent transition scoring opportunities. When Arizona State gets stuck in the half-court, they struggle to score points. They rank 308th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. They rank 315th in the nation with a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. They rank 274th in the nation with a 47.9% clip inside the arc — and that mark falls even further to just a 44.5% shooting percentage with their 2-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 300th in the nation. The Sun Devils are a great defensive team, especially in the half-court — but they foul too much in their zeal to create turnovers. Arizona State ranks 235th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Nevada ranks 22nd in the nation in drawing fouls. On the line, the Wolf Pack make 79.2% of their free throws which is the sixth-best mark in the nation. Nevada will have a size advantage as well if this game becomes a slog — they rank 17th in the nation in average height with a tall starting five leading the way while Arizona State ranks 180th in average height. The Sun Devils are erratic and inconsistent. While they have high-profile wins against Arizona and Creighton, they lost to Texas Southern along with three other Pac-12 teams who did not make the Big Dance. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE:  The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. Nevada has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (716) in the First Round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (19-14) got eliminated in the ACC Tournament in a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Cincinnati (21-12) lost in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament to Houston by a 69-48 score as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cincinnati shot a season-low 25.5% from the field against the Cougars. They should find their shooting stroke again at home where they are making 46.9% of their shots which is resulting in 82.7 Points-Per-Game. The Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games at home. They have also played 7 of their last 9  home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points. But what was also a concern for the Bearcats against Houston was the play of their defense as they allowed them to nail 50.9% of their shots. Virginia Tech has a 2-9 record in their 11 true road games in hostile environments,— and they ranked 201st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. What drags this team down the most when playing in those road games is their interior defense as they allow their home hosts to make 54.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Hokies have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. 8* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (716). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) in the First Round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (21-12) lost in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament to Houston by a 69-48 score as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Virginia Tech (19-14) got eliminated in the ACC Tournament in a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati shot a season-low 25.5% from the field against the Cougars. They also allowed Houston to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The NIT presents this team some measure of redemption from that disappointing performance. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They get this game at home where they have a 15-3 record with a +15.9 net point differential — and they rank 36th in the nation in their last ten games when playing on their home court. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Virginia Tech had a 13-4 record at home — but they were only 6-10 away from home. In their 11 true road games in hostile environments, the Hokies were only 2-9 — and they ranked 201st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. What drags this team down the most when playing in those road games is their interior defense as they allow their home hosts to make 54.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 tournament games. 25* CBB First Round NIT Game of the Year with Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) enters the Big Dance having lost two of their last three games after their 72-49 loss to Alabama as an 8-point underdog in the SEC Tournament on Friday. Pittsburgh (22-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 96-69 loss to Duke as a 5.5-point underdog in the ACC Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State is not a good shooting team — but their 31.0% shooting percentage against the Crimson Tide in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 games. The advanced metrics do indicate that the Bulldogs should be getting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their expected field goal percentage eventually matching up to their actual field goal percentage this season. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bulldogs are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Mississippi State plays defense at an elite level. Not only do they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. The Bulldogs also rank 18th in the nation by pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road — and the Panthers allow their opponents to pull down 34% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 344th in the nation. Pittsburgh is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They are also 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. And while the Panthers allowed the Blue Devils to make 62.1% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. Pittsburgh ranks 218th in the nation in their last ten games away from home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games in the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi  State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Mississippi State-Pittsburgh truTV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658) in the Finals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (25-8) has won five of their last six games after their 94-54  victory against Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Houston (31-2) has won 13 games in a row after their 69-48 victory against Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis flexed their muscles yesterday by nailing 13 of 30 (43.3%) shots from behind the arc while holding the Green Wave to just 25.8% shooting in their dominant 40-point victory. That is a great sign for them this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The challenge gets much greater now against the number one team in the nation in this Cougars team — but the Tigers’ style of play makes them a dangerous underdog. If Memphis’ shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. They rank 98th in the nation by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They rank 41st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Houston is a dominant rebounding team that out-rebounds their opponents by +7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last nine games after 15 games in the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 or more RPG. Head coach Penny Hardaway’s team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135-139.5-point range. Houston is a great team — but we are betting numbers. They played their best defensive game in their last 27 contests by holding the Bearcats to 25.5% shooting. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. And while Houston crushed East Carolina by a 60-46 score in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Friday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. Houston does have some weaknesses that should contribute to this being a close game. They foul too much by ranking 285th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Memphis makes 75.2% of their free throws. They only make 34.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 137th in the nation. And they are vulnerable to good rebounding teams as they allow their opponents to rebound 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 125th in the nation. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Houston swept the two regular-season meetings between these teams — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. The Cougars won the first game at home by a 72-64 score but the Tigers were without Kendric Davis in that game. Houston eked out a 67-65 win in the rematch last Sunday with Davis scoring 26 points for the Cougars. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities to exact some same-season revenge. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the  Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (623) and the Kansas Jayhawks (624) in the Finals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (25-8) is on a three-game winning streak after their 66-60 victory against TCU as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Kansas (27-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 71-58 victory against Iowa State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Horned Frogs to just a 35.6% field goal percentage — it was the third game in a row that they held an opponent to no higher than 36.2%. Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. The Longhorns rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and on the road, they give up -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home, ranking 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in hostile environments or neutral courts. But Texas sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -9.5 points per 100 possessions when they are on the road versus their efforts at home. They only made 2 of their 14 shots from behind the arc yesterday — and they have played 41 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a game where they did not shoot better than 20% from 3-point range. The Longhorns have now played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Kansas has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They held the Cyclones to just 40% shooting yesterday as they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, they give up -5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road helping them rank 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. But the Jayhawks score -3.8 points per 100 possessions less when on the road as well. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with Texas winning the most recent matchup on March 4th by a 75-59 score. The Jayhawks have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a loss on the road by 10 or more points. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (623) and the Kansas Jayhawks (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (24-8) has won four of their last five games after their 81-76 victory against Central Florida as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Tulane (20-10) has won three games in a row with their 82-76 victory against Wichita State as a 2.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis is a reliable team when playing away from home since they are not dependent on hot shooting. They pull down 31.0% of their missed shots, ranking 100 in the nation — and they should own the glass against this Green Wave team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. The Tigers also create additional scoring possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking second in the American Athletic Conference. Memphis ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while the Tigers have won seven of their last nine games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games played in March. Tulane held the Shockers to 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine games. But the Green Wave rank just 135th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They had not covered the point spread in five straight games before yesterday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. This is the first time Tulane is not the favorite in their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored in their two previous games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being favored in at least three games in a row before this one. The Green Wave risks being fatigued in this game as well as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third or more time in seven days. Memphis sacrifices defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break — making them vulnerable to teams who crash the offensive glass. But this is not Tulane who ranks 361st in the nation by rebounding only 18.9% of their missed shots. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane swept the two regular season games between these two teams — shooting 52.4% and 48.3% from the field in both games despite a 46.7% field goal percentage for the season. After upsetting the Tigers at home by a 96-89 score on January 1st, the Green Wave followed that up with a 90-89 score in Memphis as a 7-point underdog in that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Louis Billikens (607) and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (608) in the Semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Louis (21-11) has won three of their last four games after their 82-54 win against George Mason as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. VCU (25-7) has won seven games in a row after their 71-53 win against Davidson as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Billikens nailed 55.9% of their shots against the Patriots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Saint Louis does see their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -3.6 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Saint Louis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. VCU shot 57.4% from the field on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their 16 contests. But the Rams rank just 164th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Furthermore, VCU has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Rams will bring an outstanding defense into this game — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: VCU swept the two games between these two teams — following up a 73-65 victory on February 3rd with a 79-67 win at home on February 28th. Saint Louis has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Louis Billikens (607) and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872) in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-7) has won six games in a row after their 91-76 victory against New Mexico as a 3.5-point victory yesterday in the quarterfinals of this tournament. Boise State (24-8) has won two of their last three games after their 87-76 victory against UNLV as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies scored 91 points despite a 48.4% field goal percentage which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. Utah State ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark improves to 11th in the nation when they are playing away from home. The Aggies are fourth in the nation by nailing 39.5% of their 3-pointers — and they make 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. Utah State has played 6 straight Overs after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after a point-spread victory. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Aggies’ last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Broncos are a good offensive team that can keep up with the Aggies’ scoring. In their last ten games away from home, they rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 37.0% of their 3-pointers in conference playing, ranking fourth in the Mountain West. And while the Aggies attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game, Boise State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from downtown per contest. Despite their good defensive numbers, the Broncos tend to play higher or lower-scoring games based on their opponent. They have scored 80 or more points in three of their last eight games. They have given up 74 or more points in four of their last five games despite an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 19th in the nation. Boise State has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. They have also played 26 of their last 37 games in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos will be looking to avenge an 86-73 loss at Utah State last Saturday — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (25-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 74-72 victory against Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals yesterday. Duke (24-8) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 96-69 win against Pittsburgh yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Blue Demons nailed a season-high 62.1% of their shots yesterday afternoon — but Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Duke has still failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a point spread in their previous game. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Hurricanes winning the most recent contest by an 81-59 score on February 6th. Duke has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 20* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Temple (16-15) lost two of their last three games to conclude their regular season after an 83-82 loss at Tulane as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (20-11) won three of their last four games to close out their regular season with a 97-74 victory against SMU as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Owls allowed the Green Wave to make 50.9% of their shots last Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. They should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. Temple is 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they are 5-1-1 ATS. Cincinnati is just 23-50-3 ATS in their last 76 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread win. Cincinnati has a 14-3 record when playing at home — but they experience the 261st biggest drop of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation when then going on the road on neutral courts or hostile environments.

FINAL TAKE: These two team split their two regular season games after Cincinnati avenged a 70-61 loss on New Year’s Day with an 88-83 win in overtime on their home court. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (24-8) has won seven games in a row with their 87-60 victory against Rice as a 14-point favorite on Thursday. North Texas (26-6) has won three in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests with their 74-46 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 9-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Center at the Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a clash of styles with North Texas playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation while UAB ranks 39th in the nation with their games averaging 70.5 adjusted possessions per game. We bet numbers — and we are getting value with the Total in the 126 range. If the Blazers can successfully amp up the pace, we will win this one comfortably. But even if the Mean Green impose their will, I still think a rock fight finds its way over the number. North Texas is an outstanding defensive team — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rises by 3.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments even after they stymied the Bulldogs to just 30.4% shooting yesterday. The Mean Green has played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after both a straight-up win and a point-spread victory. North Texas forces turnovers -- but this aggressiveness can get them in trouble as they rank 344th in the nation in foul rate. And they are a solid offensive team that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the conference and do not see much drop off when playing away from home. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. UAB ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score 80.9 Points-Per-Game when on the road. They are scoring 84.0 PPG with a 47.4% field goal percentage in their last five games. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point-spread victory. The Blazers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas swept the two regular season games with neither seeing more than 124 combined points in regulation (the rematch in Denton on February 9th went to double overtime after a 62-62 score after 40 minutes — so the 82-79 final score is deceiving). But UAB has played 3 of their 4 games Over the Toal when attempting to avenge a loss on the road this season — and they have played 7 of their 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770) in the Quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: Stanford (14-18) won for the third time in their last four games with a 73-62 victory against Utah in a pick ‘em contest yesterday in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Arizona (25-6) comes into this event having lost two of their last three games after an 82-73 loss at UCLA as a 5-point underdog last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal advanced despite making only 41.9% of their shots from the field against the Utes which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are still making 47.5% of their shots in their last five games. Stanford ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 10th in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. Their productivity does not decline when playing away from Palo Alto either — they rank 4th in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. The Cardinal has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points against a Pac-12 opponent. Furthermore, Stanford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing on the road against a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. The Cardinal has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in March. Arizona only made 47.4% of their shots against the Bruins which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Wildcats rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 5th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5% with top-20 marks in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. When playing away from home, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency improves to 3rd in the nation. Arizona also plays at a blistering pace as they average 72.7 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 6th in the nation — and that mark rises to 73.6 adjusted possessions per game when playing away from home. The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They have also played 16 of their last 23 road games Over the Total against conference rivals. Furthermore, Arizona has played 9 straight games in March Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford upset the Wildcats in their lone meeting this season back on February 11th as a 7.5-point home underdog  — and Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (20-11) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 77-72 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Florida (16-15) has won two in a row after a 79-67 victory against LSU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi  State allowed the Gators to nail 49.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in 17 games going back to January 3rd at Tennessee when the Volunteers nailed 69.2% of their shots against them. The Bulldogs are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after losing their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss in their previous game. Mississippi State’s style of play translates well to neutral court environments. They play ferocious defense as they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also have a good Plan B if their shots are not falling as they pull down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 18th in the nation. The Gators are vulnerable in this area as they rank 12th in the SEC by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I do not like the Gators’ style of play when it comes to winning single-elimination tournaments. If their shots are not falling, they can get into trouble since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. They are last in the SEC by pulling down 22.9% of their missed shots. They only force turnovers in 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking seventh in the conference. And they only make 31.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 11th in the SEC. To compound matters, Florida only ranks seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It is not surprising that the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State got upset at home against Florida by a 61-59 score on January 21st — but the Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games when avenging an upset loss. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Rider (16-13) has lost two of their last three games after an 80-78 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Peter’s (13-17) has won three of their last four games after a 70-52 upset win against Fairfield as a 2-point underdog yesterday in the first round of this tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s has registered two straight upset victories after they ended their regular season on Saturday by beating Siena by one point — but bettors are making a mistake if they think this team is poised to enjoy another strong March Madness run like last year when they reached the Elite Eight. Shaheen Holloway parlayed that supreme coaching job to get the Seton Hal gig — and the players left the program along with him en masse. In all, nine players transferred including all five starters from that team and the top-six scorers from the group that lost to North Carolina in the Elite Eight. So when bettors see that the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court, the only neutral court game this new group played under new head coach Bashir Mason, formerly of Wagner, was yesterday. They held the Stags to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet this team still ranks 287th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games and they finished 9th in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in that metric. A letdown is likely as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games this season after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win. Furthermore, Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 8 games played with one day or less of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. The Peacocks made 48.0% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. This team can’t score — they rank 325th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their effective field goal percentage of 44.1% ranks 359th in the nation — and they only make 29.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 354th in the nation. They led the MAAC in offensive rebounding pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — but the Broncs rank third in the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding 27.5% of their misses. Additionally, the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 120s. Rider settled for second place in the MAAC with a 13-7 conference record after their 2-point loss to the regular season champions in the Gaels with head coach Rick Pitino’s team avenging an earlier loss to the Broncs. The Broncs should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Rider has size with three of their six regulars 6’7 or taller. They were second in the conference by making 50.6% of their shots inside the arc. They also ranked second in the MAAC by pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots — and in their last ten games away from home, they rank seventh in the nation by rebounding 36.6% of their misses. The Peacocks are vulnerable on the defensive glass with their opponents rebounding 32.3% of their missed shots, ranking 321st in the nation. The laptops indicate that Rider has value on the road — especially as of late. While one power rankings system places them 207th in the nation, that mark jumps to 155th in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. Those are the teams I am looking for this week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncs swept both games in the regular season after a 73-60 victory at Saint Peter’s as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560) in the Semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-19) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 82-78 upset win against Southeast Louisiana as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Northwestern State (21-10) has won two of their last three games after an 81-64 win against Incarnate Word as a 10.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at The Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Privateers advanced to the semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament despite making only 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. New Orleans should shoot better tonight as they lead the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%. The Over is 46-22-1 in their last 69 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. And they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. The Privateers will push the pace in this game. They rank 24th in the nation by averaging 71.4 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 72.9 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten games when playing away from home, ranking 14th in the nation. New Orleans has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 25-7-1 in their last 33 games played on a neutral court — and the Privateers have played 18 of their last 23 conference tournament games Over the Total. Northwestern State has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival in their previous game. They have all played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Demons rank second in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their attack is fueled by them pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots, ranking second in the conference. They should have success on the offensive glass tonight against this Privateers team that is last in the Southland Conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.4% of their missed shots. Northwestern State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court — and the over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with Northwestern State winning the first encounter on the road by an 88-65 score before New Orleans upset them on the road in the rematch on February 18th by a 68-65 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Demons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Southland Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565) in the Finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Merrimack (17-16) reached the championship game of this tournament with their 71-60 victory against Sacred Heart as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Farleigh Dickinson (19-14) has won four of their last five games after a 70-50 victory against St. Francis-PA as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack is not eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament they have yet to complete four years as a Division I member which is an NCAA regulation. Given that they will be motivated to not only claim the Northeast Conference championship but also avenge two losses to the Knights in the regular season, this is the Warriors’ Super Bowl — and they get to play this contest in front of their home crowd. Merrimack has won ten games in a row — and 17 of their last 20 contests coming into this game. While they rank 282nd in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 180th in their last ten contests using those metrics. That bodes well for them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a conference opponent. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or more games in a row. This is a very good defensive team that leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 101st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that is more difficult than it first appears because the Northeast Conference is statistically the worst conference in Division I. Looking at the conference numbers is probably more illuminating for this contest — and Merrimack not only leads the way in forcing turnovers but they are first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.9% while ranking in the top two in 3-point and 2-point defense. Admittedly, their national offensive numbers are lousy — but they rank fifth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fourth in the conference when measuring efficiency on their home court. They make a very healthy 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc at home against conference opponents — so this team is fine. They have an 8-6 record at home with a +6.5 net point differential — and it is the play of their defense that stands out. They hold their guests to 38.5% shooting which results in only 56.4 Points-Per-Game. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Farleigh Dickinson has clinched their ticket to the Big Dance by reaching this game and facing a team ineligible to advance — so while I still expect them to play hard, a little bit of the edge is off since this is not a truly “do or die” situation. As it is, the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have covered two of their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering twice in their last three contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third time in seven days. Farleigh Dickinson held St. Francis (PA) to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But this is one of the least effective defensive teams in the nation — they rank 361st in the nation and eighth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Knights’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.2% ranks 358th in the nation — and they simply do not have the excuse of their non-conference schedule since they rank ninth in the Northeast Conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on their offensive attack to win games — but their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 108.3 at home drops to 105.2 when they are playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in a tournament setting.

FINAL TAKE: The Knights won the first meeting between these teams on December 29th with a 71-63 win at home before following that up with a 78-71 upset win at Merrimack as a 2.5-point underdog on January 28th. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 53.7% from the field in that rematch including a sizzling 10 of 22 (45.4%) clip from behind the arc that is not likely sustainable tonight. The Warriors blew second-half leads in both games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872) in the Semifinals of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland State (20-12) has won six of their last seven games after their 75-70 victory in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (21-10) has won three games in a row after their 81-70 upset victory against Wright State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland State beat Robert Morris despite them shooting 43.5% from the field — not a bad defensive number but it was the best a team has shot against the Vikings in their last eight games. Cleveland State ranks second in the Horizon League with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.4%. The Vikings have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Cleveland State remains effective when playing away from home since they work hard at generating additional scoring opportunities for themselves. They rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 17th in the nation. They also rank 53rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Panthers are vulnerable in both of these areas. They allow their opponents to pull down 32.9% of their missed shots, ranking 338th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 21.9% of their possessions, ranking 347th in the nation. Milwaukee pulled off their second-straight upset in this tournament with their victory against the Raiders. But while they have scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. And while their last game finished Under the 161.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing an Under in their last contest. The Panthers benefitted from a 9-2 record in conference play in games decided by five points or less — and that suggests they are overvalued relative to their overall record. This is also a team that thrived when playing at home — but they rank 358th in the nation in their decline in their play away from home in Net Adjusted Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee swept both games against the Vikings in their two regular-season games — and both were upset victories which should have the Vikings very fired up for this third encounter. Cleveland State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. These two teams last played on February 25th with the Panthers pulling off an 81-72 victory as a 1.5-point home underdog — but the Vikings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868) in the Finals of the Southern Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UT-Chattanooga (18-16) has won three straight games after their 74-62 win against Wofford as a 4-point favorite yesterday. Furman (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 83-80 win in overtime against Western Carolina as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Moccasins held Wofford to just 38.7% shooting yesterday — that was the fourth time in their last five games and the sixth in their last eight contests where they held their opponent to 42.6% or lower shooting from the floor. Chattanooga ranks second in the Southern Conference when playing on the road by holding their opponents to 48.8% shooting inside the arc. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a conference opponent — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Chattanooga has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s. Furman only shot 39.0% from the field yesterday which was the worst shooting effort of the season for them. But while I often conclude that outlier efforts like that are aberrations — in this instance, I suspect it is nerves kicking for this Paladins team playing with the weight of expectations. This team has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1980 — and they lost the title game of the Southern Conference Tournament last year against this Chattanooga team so winning this game has been the goal for 365 days. Furman is a good defensive team that led the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It starts with the Paladins’ half-court defense as they rank second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.5% while ranking second in the Southern Conference in both 2-point and 3-point defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points per game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Yesterday’s game flew Over the 149-point total because of overtime (the score was 72-72 after regulation time) — and Furman has played 8 straight road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Paladins have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Furman swept the two games between these teams in the regular season with the last meeting being on February 1st with the Paladins winning by a 79-58 score. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. UT-Chattanooga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and Furman has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Southern Conference Tournament Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls  (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). THE SITUATION: South Florida (14-16) has won three games in a row after a 72-56 win against Tulsa as a 14-point favorite on Wednesday. Wichita State (15-14) has lost two of their last three games after an 83-66 loss at Houston as a 17.5-point underdog on  Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: South Florida defeated the Golden Hurricane despite only shooting 42.4% from the field. The Bulls have won four of their last five games with them shooting 48.9% from the field in those contests and scoring +4.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average. They have also held their last five opponents to just 40.9% shooting. South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games on the road after beating a conference rival in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread cover in their last game. On the road, the Bulls are outscoring their opponents by +0.1 PPG despite a 5-7 record. They are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games on the road with nine-point spread covers in their last ten games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. South Florida is second in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 33.2% of their missed shots. The Shockers are vulnerable in this department as they rank sixth in the AAC by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 29.2% of their missed shots. Wichita State lost by 17 points to the Cougars despite making 64.9% of their shots to waste their best shooting effort of the season. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread cover. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they are 7-9 this season. Wichita State is 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games at home after failing to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 home games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Shockers are not a good defensive team — and they are regressing in that area. They rank ninth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to score 79.2 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Their last five opponents have made 46.9% of their shots despite their 40.8 defensive field goal percentage for the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: South Florida may be without their seven-footer Russel Tchewa who missed the last game with an undisclosed ailment. This situation still warrants an investment with the market adjusting by making the Bulls a bigger underdog. Wichita State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 70-66 score as a 2-point road underdog — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road when avenging a loss. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Florida Bulls  (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758) in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Southeast Missouri State (18-16) has won three games in a row after their 65-58 upset victory against Morehead State as a 4.5-point underdog yesterday. Tennessee Tech (16-16) also advanced in their semifinals contest in this tournament with their 78-63 upset victory against Tennessee-Martin as a 1.5-point underdog. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeast Missouri is tough to beat in these neutral court games under third-year head coach Brad Korn. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court including all five of their games this season. Korn’s style of play for his team translates into these situations. First, Southeast Missouri plays at a blistering pace — they rank sixth in the nation with 73.0 adjusted possessions per game. Second, they pressure the basketball to force turnovers — they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Redhawks are also a reliable shooting team near the basket as they lead the conference by making 54.7% of their shots inside the arc — and this percentage actually improves when they are playing away from home where they are making 55.4% of their 2-pointers. Southeast Missouri is rolling now — and they have covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing without a day of rest. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s, Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 12 of these contests. Tennessee Tech may be primed for a letdown after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row after conference rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in  6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Tennessee Tech has won and covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Golden Eagles force turnovers as well — but they are not as effective at it as the Redhawks who also do a better job of protecting the basketball. Tennessee Tech then has a Plan B problem. They do not create additional scoring opportunities as they are last in the conference by pulling down 22.7% of their missed shots. They do shoot plenty of 3s — and they nail an impressive 40.4% of these shots when playing at home, ranking 21st in the nation. But when playing away from home, their 3-point shooting plummets to just a 34.6% clip, ranking 101st in the nation. They only made 10 of their 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc yesterday. And while Southeast Missouri State at least makes their 2s,  the Golden Eagles rank 10th in the Ohio Valley by making just 44.4% of their shots inside the arc. Tennessee Tech has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of up to three points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with the Golden Eagles winning the most recent contest by an 82-80 score on their home court on February 24th — but Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year is with the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). THE SITUATION: St. Francis-PA (13-17) has won four of their last five games after their 83-69 win against Central Connecticut State as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Farleigh Dickinson (18-14) has won three of their last four games with their 83-75 win against St. Francis-NY as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lots of Overs this week — I’m just following the numbers. The data points to the Over for this one — even before I then realize that these two teams are top-two statistical offenses in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Northeast Conference while registering two of the worst defensive metrics in the nation. St. Francis-PA ranks 356th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. And with their win against Central Connecticut State finishing Over, they have then played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. After playing their last three games on the road, they go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The St. Francis-PA offense is bolstered by their 3-point shooting as they rank 38th in the nation by nailing 36.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Now they play a Knights team ranking 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Farleigh Dickinson ranks 362nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also lead the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Knights have scored 169 points in their last two games — and they have palled 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. They stay at home where the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games at home when it is just their second game in seven days.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with St. Francis-PA winning the most recent game by an 82-72 score on February 23rd — and Farleigh Dickinson has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422) in the Semifinals of the Big South Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC-Upstate (16-14) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 77-76 upset win against Gardner-Webb as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UNC-Asheville (25-7) joined them in the semifinals of this tournament with their 75-66 win against Charleston Southern as a 9-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans are a good shooting team — they rank second in the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 52.7% based on the strength of their interior shooting. USC-Upstate ranks second in the conference by making 53.6% of their shots inside the arc. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. USC-Upstate is playing their best basketball of the season now with three straight victories along with seven wins in their last eight games. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against conference rivals — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Betting Unders for these early tip-offs on neutral courts has been a fashionable play in the past — but we bet numbers rather than being a zombie simply for the situation. This Total is dropping — giving us more value on the Over. While these early tips can see groggy teams struggling to shoot — the Spartans bring energy by forcing turnovers. They rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 21.1% defensive turnover clip against conference opponents. They forced 17 turnovers representing 23.6% of Gardner-Webb’s possessions yesterday — and now the Bulldogs may be vulnerable in this area. UNC-Asheville ranks 313th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.3% of their possessions — and they turn it over in 20.7% of their conference possessions. Forcing turnovers tends to create easier scoring opportunities in transition which is reinforced by the Spartans' effective 2-point shooting. USC-Upstate has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. UNC-Asheville only made 35.8% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 22 games. The Bulldogs should shoot much better today after that outlier effort. They rank 32nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They rank seventh in the nation with a 39.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and that number improves to 40.6% in conference play. UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning five or more games in a row. The Bulldogs are going to get their share of points at the free throw line — they rank 12th in the nation in free throw rate. The downside to USC-Upstate’s pressure on the basketball is that they foul too much — they rank 354th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The charity strip should help this game finish Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after USC-Upstate upset the Bulldogs by a 76-70 score as a 3-point home underdog on February  4th. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (21-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 94-80 win against Fresno State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado State (13-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 63-46 loss at San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lobos rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 90 points. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival. New Mexico has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They go back on the road where they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments boosted by their 39.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking 9th in the nation. The Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road. The Lobos rank 306th in the nation in defensive foul rate when playing on the road — and the Rams make 76.1% of their free throws on their home court. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 38.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But the Rams only shot 36.5% from the field in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 24 contests. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game where they did not score more than 50 points. And while they only scored 22 points in the first half of that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game. The Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 13 games after a point-spread loss, the Over is 10-2-1. While that game with San Jose State finished far below the 136.5-point total, Colorado State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. The Rams should approach their 80.4 Points-Per-Game scoring average when playing at home tonight. They rank 13th in the nation with a 56.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Lobos allow their opponents to convert on 50.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 205th in the nation — and their conference opponents have converted on 53.6% of their 2-pointers against them. Colored State ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court — and they rank 17th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc at home. The Rams have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have 5 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: New Mexico won the first meeting between these two teams by an 88-69 score on December 28th — and the Rams have played all 3 of their games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road this season. The Lobos have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total listed in the 150s. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). THE SITUATION: Toledo (24-6) rides a 14-game winning streak after a 99-65 victory as a 15-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (20-10) has lost three of their last four games after an 87-83 loss at Akron as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets are nailing 54.4% of their shots in their last five games which helps them generate 92.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Toledo ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rank 275th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.5 PPG but allowing 77.7 PPG. The Rockets rank 2nd in the nation by making 40.1% of their shots — and that mark drops only slightly to a 39.0% clip when playing on the road, ranking 14th best in the nation. Toledo has played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Ball State has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 29 of their last 42 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in seven days. Ball State ranks 6th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they rank 23rd in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. When playing at home, they make 48.4% of their shots which generates 80.4 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs at home — and they have played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 150s. But the Cardinals have given up 77.4 PPG in their last five games — and now they host this Rockets’ team that is so good with their 3-point shooting having allowed their guests to nail 38.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 349th in the nation. Ball State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 90-83 score on January 3rd — and Toledo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (20-12) has won four straight games and seven of their last nine after their 83-70 win against Stetson on Tuesday. Kennesaw State (24-8) has won three in a row and six of their last seven after their 67-66 victory against Queens-University of Charlotte as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. The Owls are the host team at their Convocation Center in Kennesaw, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb made 47.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Bisons rank 34th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0% — and they are third in the Atlantic Sun with a 37.6% shooting clip from behind the arc, ranking third in the conference. Lipscomb has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread win — and they have played 7 straight overs when playing for the second time in the last three days. The Bisons are playing at a quicker pace than they were earlier in the season. While they are averaging 69.6 adjusted possessions per game, that mark has risen to 71.1 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten contests, ranking 31st in the nation. They are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 85.4 Points-Per-Game, a +8.8 PPG bump over their season average. But they are also allowing their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 79.6 PPG. On the road, the Bisons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 145-149.5-point range. Kennesaw State has seen the Over go 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a win at home against an Atlantic Sun rival. They have also played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Owls will be vulnerable against the Bisons' 3-point shooting — they rank 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But Kennesaw State can score — they rank 27th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc and rank 26th in getting to the free-throw line. On their home court, the Owls are making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 81.4 PPG which is +6.0 PPG above their season average. The Over is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games on their home court — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Kennesaw State won the first meeting between these two teams by an 85-72 score at home as a 4-point favorite — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). THE SITUATION: SE Louisiana (17-13) has won three games in a row after a 78-75 win in overtime as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Houston Christian (10-20) had won two games in a row before a 68-64 loss at Nicholls State as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions only scored 22 points in the first half on Saturday while ending the game with a 42.3% shooting percentage which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They had nailed at least 50% of their shots in their previous three games — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five contests which is resulting in 78.4 Points-Per-Game. SE Louisiana has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Over is 38-15-1 in their last 54 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. The Lions are not a good defensive team — they rank 317th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to 46.7% shooting when playing on the road which is resulting in them giving up 77.2 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record a home. Furthermore, SE Louisiana has played 12 of their last 16 games in conference play Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when favored. Houston Christian only made 35.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contest. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Houston Christian returns home where they are making 51.3% of their shots which is generating 88.1 PPG, a +9.8 PPPG bump over their season average. They are 30th in the nation by making 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and now they host a Lions team that allows Southland Conference opponents to make a whopping 41.5% of their shots from downtown. But Houston Christian does not play a lick of defense — they rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. They allow their opponents to make 37.3% of their 3-pointers and 58.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 336th and 306th in the nation respectively. They don’t force turnovers — and they rank 306th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.4% of their missed shots. What the Huskies cannot do on defense, they make up for by playing at a fast pace. Their opponents average just 16.4 seconds per possession, the third fastest rate in the nation — and the 70.8 adjusted possessions per game in their contests is the 36th most in the nation. Houston Christian allows their guests to make 48.3% of their shots on their home court which is producing 88.1 PPG. The Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court. They have also played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 5 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Southeast Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-59 score as a 10-point home favorite on January 5th — but Houston Christian has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southland Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (643) and the Kansas Jayhawks (644). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (16-13) had their four-game winning streak snapped in an 83-82 upset loss against TCU as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Kansas (24-5) has won six straight games after their 76-74 win against West Virginia as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders lost to the Horned Frogs despite nailing 50.6% of their shots. They made 60.7% of their shots in their previous game at Oklahoma last Tuesday — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. Texas Tech is shooting 48.9% in their last five games. Their game with TCU went way Over the 144-point Total in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their previous contest. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Red Raiders’ play on defense is of concern as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They allow their conference opponents to make 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 9th in the Big 12 — and the Jayhawks rank 2nd in the conference with a 51.5% shooting percentage inside the arc. Texas Tech also ranks 297th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.6% of their missed shots. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 5 games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. Kansas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against conference rivals. After naming 54.9% of their shots against the Mountaineers, they are shooting 50.5% from the field in their last five games. Head coach Bill Self has his team playing at a faster pace as well. They are averaging 69.6 adjusted possessions per game but in their last ten contests, they are averaging 71.3 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 33rd in the nation. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home where they are making 48.3% of their shots which is generating 79.6 Points-Per-Game. The Jayhawks have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and the Over is 25-12-1 in their last 38 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Kansas has also played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dajaun Harris got injured on Saturday but he is listed as probable to play tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 3rd by a 75-72 score in Lubbock — and the Red Raiders have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Texas Tech-Kansas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (643) and the Kansas Jayhawks (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520) in the first round of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Bellarmine (14-17) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 79-67 loss at North Florida as a 5-point underdog on Friday. North Florida (14-16) has won two in a row and six of their last eight with the victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at Liberty Arena in Lynchburg, Virginia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Bellarmine should respond with a strong effort with this quick turnaround and opportunity for revenge from their loss on Friday. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. Bellarmine stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road against Atlantic Sun rivals. The Knights are a solid team when playing away from home because of their ability to make shots inside the perimeter — they rank 63rd in the nation by making 53.2% of their 2-pointers. Bellarmine has only covered the point spread once in their last four games — but they then have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. North Florida loves to shoot from 3-point land — the “Birds of Trey”  rank 7th in the nation by attempting 47.6% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. In their win on Friday, they nailed 12 of their 24 shots (50%) from 3-point range despite carrying a 32.3% mark from 3-point range when playing at home. That hot shooting is not likely to continue tonight with the pressure on. As it is, the Ospreys rank 116th in the nation with a 33.4% shooting percentage away from home from deep — and they rank only 10th in the Atlantic Sun with a 34.0% mark from behind the arc on the road in conference play. Bellarmine ranks 3rd in the Atlantic Sun by holding their opponents to just 34.3% shooting from 3-point range. North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. Additionally, North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five their last five games. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Bellarmine head coach Scott Davenport is a gem who oversaw this team finishing no worse than second place in the Atlantic Sun in their first two seasons in Division I before settling for a 9-9 conference record this year. The Knights won the conference tournament last year (but did not get a bid to the Big Dance with the regular season champion earning the automatic bid). Bellarmine returned two starters and 56.2% of the minutes from that team — and it has been senior Garrett Tipton, a reserve who averaged under 15 minutes per game last year, who has stepped in as their best player this season. This is a battle-tested team that played UCLA, Kentucky, and Duke in the non-conference part of their schedule to prepare for this moment. The Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Underdog of the Year with the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-16) has lost two of their last three games after an 81-58 upset loss at home to Marist as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Quinnipiac (19-9) has won two in a row after their 90-88 victory in double-overtime against Rider as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should rebound from their disastrous effort on Friday. They only made 32.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting of their season. They also allowed the Red Foxes to shoot 51.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. But the Jaspers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days (their previous game was last Sunday). The Jaspars lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and the Bobcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank 203rd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions. This ability to create extra scoring possessions helps them play better away from home — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating two straight conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing for just the second time in eight days. While they are shooting 43.1% from the field this season, that mark has dropped to a 40.7% clip in their last five games. Furthermore, their last five opponents have made 46.1% of their shots against them as compared to their 41.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. They stay at home where they are 9-3 this season but only outscoring their guests by +7.0 Points-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They are just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Furthermore, Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%.

FINAL TAKE: Manhattan will be looking to avenge an 84-65 loss at home to Quinnipiac as a 5-point underdog on January 1st — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year is with the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). THE SITUATION: UAB (21-8) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 85-57 win against Rice as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Western Kentucky (15-13) won for the fourth time in their last six games with a 76-66 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blazers held the Owls to host 32.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 28 games. The Over is 27-9-1 in their last 37 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Over is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And while their game with the Bulldogs two days ago finished Under the 143.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They stay at home where they are second in Conference USA by nailing 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is helping them score 78.5 PPG. The Hilltoppers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: UAB will have revenge on their mind after losing to Western Kentucky by an 80-78 score as a 10.5-point home favorite on January 11th. The Blazers should score more points in this rematch. They rank 7th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. The Hilltoppers rank 271st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.3% of their missed shots. UAB also nails 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 22nd in the nation. Western Kentucky ranks 327th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range, and that mark rises to a 38.4% clip when playing at home against Conference USA rivals. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). THE SITUATION: The Citadel (10-20) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests with their 78-70 loss at East Tennessee State as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Mercer (12-18) has lost five games in a row after their 70-67 loss at Furman as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citadel allowed the Moccasins to nail 50.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bulldogs should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court in their final regular season game before the Southern Conference Tournament — they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference rival — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. The Citadel’s bigger problems are with making baskets as they rank 287th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 43.3% of their shots on the road — and they don’t crash the offensive glass either as they rank 307th in the nation by pulling down only 20.6% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total in February. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Mercer has seen the Under go 38-17-2 in their last 57 games after losing their previous game — and they have played ten of their last fourteen games Under the Total after losing their previous game. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their previous game by six points or less. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point-spread loss. And in their last 17 games when playing their second game in seven days, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Mercer also struggles to make baskets as they rank 10th in the Southern Conference and 288th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Bears are a solid defensive team that holds their guests to just 42.4% shooting when playing at home which results in them scoring 68.2 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-4-2 in their last 20 games on their home court — and the Under is 36-16-2 in Mercer’s last 54 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Mercer won the first meeting between these two teams by a 74-65 score as a 2-point favorite on January 28th — and The Citadel has played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). THE SITUATION: Siena (17-10) was on a two-game winning streak before their 66-63 upset loss to Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. Rider (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 90-88 loss at Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Siena made only 37.9% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Saints have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a conference rival. Siena ranks second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they go back on the road where they have a 9-6 record with a +2.8 net point differential. The Saints have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. Siena has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. The Broncs return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored or in a pick ‘em contest.

FINAL TAKE: Siena has registered impressive wins against Seton Hall and Iona this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). THE SITUATION: Western Carolina (16-13) has won four of their last five games after a 71-68 upset win at Mercer as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. UNC-Greensboro (19-10) has won five of their last six games after their 93-76 victory at UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Carolina should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory as an underdog getting six or more points. They stay on the road where they are 8-8 with a net point differential of just -3.6 Points-Per-Game. The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. Western Carolina should match up well against the Spartans who thrive in creating additional scoring opportunities. UNC-Greensboro leads the Southern Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions and they are second in the conference by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots on offense. But Western Carolina ranks 38th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.0% of their possessions — and that mark lowers to a 14.6% clip in conference play. The Catamounts lead the Southern Conference by limiting those opponents to rebounding just 24.7% of their missed shots. The Spartans nailed 55.9% of their shots on Saturday in their win against the Moccasins which was the best shooting effort in their last 17 games. But UNC-Greensboro has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 90 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. The Spartans return home where they have a 10-3 record — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UNC-Greensboro crushed Western Carolina earlier this season on December 29th by a 72-47 score — but they only pulled down 29.0% of their missed shots and forced turnovers in 14.9% of the Catamounts’ possessions which was below their season averages in both categories. That 25-point loss can be attributed to Western Carolina shooting just 20% from the field which was the worst shooting effort of their season (by far). The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (641) and the Michigan State Spartans (642). THE SITUATION: Indiana (19-8) has lost four of their last five games after a 71-68 victory against Illinois as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Michigan State (16-10) had their two-game winning streak end with an 84-72 loss at Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win. Indiana ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home at Assembly Hall — but they drop massively to ranking 110th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Their collapse in offensive efficiency from those home/road splits ranks 351st in the nation in terms of discrepancy. But head coach Mike Woodson does have his team play strong half-court defense away from home. The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.3% when playing on the road. And while Indiana ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark has improved to 30th in the nation in their last ten games. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Hoosiers’ last 5 games on the road — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Michigan State shot 47.5% from the field in their loss to the Wolverines on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games — but they allowed Michigan to nail 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Michigan State returns home to the Breslin Center where they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their guests to 38.5% shooting which results in only 59.7 Points-Per-Game. Sparty has played 6 straight Unders when playing on their home court. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State looks to avenge an 82-69 loss at Indiana on January 22nd. The Spartans have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Indiana-Michigan State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (641) and the Michigan State Spartans (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (306515) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306516). THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-17) has lost five games in a row after their 82-71 loss at Prairie View A&M as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Texas Southern (10-17) has won three of their last four games after an 80-62 win against Mississippi Valley State as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play in the Southwest Athletic Conference tonight. The Golden Lions have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss to SWAC rival. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a point-spread loss. Additionally, Arkansas-Pine Bluff has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They stay on the road where they are giving up 75.9 Points-Per-Game, up +5.9 Points-Per-Game above their season average. They have played 12 of their last 19 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5-point range. They have also played 5 straight Overs against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Texas Southern has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a point-spread win. And while their win against Mississippi Valley State finished Over the 135.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. On their home court, the Tigers are scoring 76.3 PPG which is +7.0 PPG above their season average. They have played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including eight of these last nine situations. They have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern will be looking to avenge a 70-66 upset loss to Arkansas-Pine Bluff on January 7th — and the Tigers have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with  Over the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (306515) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (847) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (848). THE SITUATION: Maryland (18-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 68-54 win against Purdue as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Nebraska (13-14) has won three of their last four games after an 82-72 upset win at Rutgers as a 14-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. Maryland ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark improves to 20th in the nation when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. The Terrapins have played 9 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 7 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. Additionally, Maryland has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while the Cornhuskers have played three straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Nebraska returns home where they are holding their opponents to 39.8% shooting — and they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games on their home court. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games at home — and the Cornhuskers have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Furthermore, Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska will be looking to avenge an 82-63 loss at Maryland against the Terrapins as an 11.5-point underdog on January 28th — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 10* CBB Maryland-Nebraska FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (847) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Loyola-Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Army (14-14) has lost three of their last four games after a 93-86 loss at Colgate as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette allows the Greyhounds to make 53.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Leopards lead the Patriot League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better on that end of the court today. While that game with Loyola-Maryland flew Over the 124-point Total, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Lafayette should bounce back today as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less in their last contest. And while the Leopards have lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Lafayette usually dictates the pace of play in their games as they rank 356th in the nation by averaging 20.0 seconds per possession. The 63.2 adjusted possessions per game in Patriot League play is the lowest mark in the conference. The Leopards also lead the Patriot League by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Black Knights are vulnerable in this area. Army is sixth in the conference by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. Lafayette has a 3-4 record in the Patriot League when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 road games this season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Additionally, the Leopards have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. Army nailed 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. But they also allowed Colgate to shoot 55.0% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 9 games after a game where 175 or more combined points were scored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. Now after playing the last two games on the road where they were the underdog, the Black Knights return home where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from ranking 167th on the season overall to just 229th in the nation on their home court. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being the underdog in their previous two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Army is an elite defensive rebounding team that leads the Patriot League by holding their opponents to pulling down just 22.8% of their missed shots — and they rank seventh in the nation in defensive rebounding when playing at home. But alas, Lafayette sacrifices crashing the offensive glass for getting back on defense — so this will not be a big edge for the Black Knights today. Army allows their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots — and their last five opponents are making 47.0% of their shots against them which is resulting in them allowing 75.0 Points-Per-Game, up 4.3 net PPG above their season average. The Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Lafayette will be looking to avenge an 82-65 upset loss at home to Army on January 2nd as a 1.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). THE SITUATION: Abilene Christian (13-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 77-62 loss to San Houston State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Grand Canyon (16-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-76 upset loss to the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats only made 38.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Abilene Christian has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. The Wildcats have played six straight Overs — but not only have they then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Abilene Christian allowed Sam Houston State to nail 55.1% of their shots in the loss last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field including three of their four games Over the Total this season under those circumstances. The Wildcats are second-to-last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Furthermore, they are last in the WAC in putting their conference opponents on the free throw line — and Grand Canyon leads the conference by making 74.7% of their shots in conference play. Abilene Christian goes back on the road where they allow their home hosts to nail 50.4% of their shots which results in 77.1 Points-Per-Game which is 7.5 PPG above their season average.  The Wildcats have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total on the road after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total in February. Grand Canyon has played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a loss at home to a WAC rival. Furthermore, the Over is 35-16-4 in the Anteaters’ last 55 games after a point spread loss including 12 Overs in the last 15 games after not covering the point spread. And while that game finished above the 147.5-point total for that game, they have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. Grand Canyon held UT Rio Grande Valley to just 37.7% shooting after holding Seattle to 36.4% shooting — but those were both their top two defensive efforts in their previous nine games. They stay at home where they are last in the WAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. nit the Anteaters make 47.5% of their shots at home which generates 80.3 PPG. In conference play, they sport a 56.5% effective field goal percentage on their home court, ranking second in the WAC — and they are nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home in conference play. They have played 19 of their last 26 games at home Over the Total including eleven of their last thirteen home games. The Over is also 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Grand Canyon has also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Abilene Christian will be looking to avenge a 75-73 loss at home to Grand Canyon as a 2.5-point underdog on January 26th. The Anteaters have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). THE SITUATION: Little Rock (8-19) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-61 loss at UT-Martin as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. Southern Indiana (14-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 74-64 win against Lindenwood as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Little Rock shot only 36.4% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. They only made 2 of their 19 (10.5%) of their shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after failing to make 20% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Trojans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They return home where they have a 6-4 record with a +5.2 net point differential. Little Rock is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last six games against teams with a winning record, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Southern Indiana held Lindenwood to just 40.4% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where they are 4-10 this season — and they rank 9th in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Screaming Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Southern Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, the Screaming Eagles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock will be looking to avenge a 74-67 loss at Southern Indiana on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). THE SITUATION: Army (14-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 70-53 loss at Navy as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Colgate (19-8) has won two in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 76-56 win at Bucknell as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army only made 30.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort of the season. The Black Knights should shoot better tonight as they rank 30th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0%. They are facing a Raiders team that ranks 261st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Army has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Army is outstanding in defending their defensive glass as well — they rank 19th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.6% of their missed shots. The Black Knights stay on the road where they are only getting outscored by -0.7 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Colgate made 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Colgate crushed Lehigh by an 81-53 score in their previous contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Army will be looking to avenge a 77-75 loss at home to Colgate as a 7.5 point underdog on January 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (16-9) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss at Illinois as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Nebraska (12-14) has won two of their last three contests after their 73-63 upset win against Wisconsin in overtime as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Rutgers only made 34.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst-shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed the Fighting Illini to make 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 18 contests. Rutgers ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 13-2 with a net point differential of +21.1 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 34.7% shooting which results in 52.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Nebraska held the Badgers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after upsetting their last opponent by double-digits as a home underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after upsetting a Big Ten rival as a home dog. Additionally, Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they are just 3-11 with a net point differential of -10.7 net PPG. They only score 62.4 PPG on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. The Cornhuskers are too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions, ranking 227th in the nation. Now they face a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying 13-14 points — but we are dealing with an angry Rutgers team that ranks number one in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home according to one of the metrics systems I follow. Those same analytics rank the Cornhuskers at 344th in the nation when playing away from home. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying 12.5 or more points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (879) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (880). THE SITUATION: Texas (20-5) has won three of their last four games after their 94-60 win against West Virginia as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Texas Tech (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak after their 71-63 victory against Kansas State as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Mountaineers to just 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. The Over is 18-7-1 in Texas’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. The Longhorns rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they make 55.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 27th in the nation. The Red Raiders are vulnerable in defending the interior as they rank 9th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 53.4% of their 2-pointers. Texas goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have also played 17 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Texas Tech held the Wildcats to 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 games. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they are making 48.1% of their shots and generating 77.9 Points-Per-Game. Texas Tech should be able to score their share of points against the Longhorns. They rank 30th in the nation by making 57.4% of their shots inside the arc — and Texas is 185th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their 2-point shots when playing on the road. The Red Raiders also rank 24th in the nation at home in getting to the free throw line — and the Longhorns rank 307th in the country when playing on the road in defensive free throw rate percentage. Texas Tech has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when playing on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Furthermore, the Over is 5-2-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech looks to avenge a 72-70 loss at Texas as an 8-point underdog on January 14th — and the Red Raiders have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Texas-Texas Tech ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (879) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). THE SITUATION: Temple (14-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 72-71 upset loss at SMU as a 1.5-point favorite. Memphis (18-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 99-81 win at South Florida as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple should rebound with a good effort this afternoon as they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. The Owls stay competitive because of their play on defense. They rank 2nd in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels. Temple ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in hostile environments. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they are a decisive 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home.  They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Memphis is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Tigers can struggle to cover the point spread when laying plenty of points for a couple of reasons. First, they foul way too much — not only are they last in the American Athletic Conference in defensive foul rate, but they rank 304th in the nation in putting their opponents on the line. The Owls should take advantage here as they rank 22nd in the nation by nailing 76.6% of their shots at the charity stripe. Second, Memphis gives up too many second-chance scoring opportunities as their opponents pull down 32.0% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. Temple is a solid offensive rebounding team as they rank fifth in the conference by pulling down 30.5% of their missed shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Temple will be seeking to avenge a 61-59 loss to Memphis on January 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when motivated by revenge. 20* CBB Temple-Memphis ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (15-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-62 loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Villanova (11-13) ended a three-game losing streak with their 81-65 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall played their worst defensive game of the season as the Bluejays nailed 61.4% of their shots on Wednesday — the highest opponent's field goal percentage they allowed all season. The Pirates still rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. They have two impressive victories against UConn and Rutgers who rank 6th and 17th in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. They go back on the road where they have a 7-6 record this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Seton Hall ranks 10th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and the Wildcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank sixth in the Big East in defensive free throw rate. Villanova has taken a step or two back in their first season since their legendary head coach Jay Wright retired. Under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune, the team’s best win was against Oklahoma which only ranks 60th in Ken Pomeroy’s metrics ranking system. The Wildcats rank just 103rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They made 51.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best offensive effort in their last six contests. But Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while their hot shooting helped that game finish Over the Total set at 141 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They now have a 7-3 record at home — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests which include the bottom-floor teams in the Big East conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. After shooting 36.0% from behind the arc last season in conference play, they are only making 32.4% of their 3-pointers this season, ranking 11th in the Big East.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB FS1-TV Game of the Month is with the  Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). THE SITUATION: Fairfield (10-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Rider (13-9) has won seven games in a row after their 67-56 victory at Manhattan as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STAGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fairfield has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three in a row to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference opponent. The Stags are one of the best defensive units in the conference — and this helps them be competitive in road games. Fairfield ranks third in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the conference with the lowest opponent free throw rate — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% is the second-best in the MAAC. They have a 5-8 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Stags have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after winning at least three in a row versus conference rivals. The Broncs have a 6-2 record at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 range. Additionally, the Broncs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield is looking to avenge a 78-69 upset loss at home to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on January 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (18-4) had their five-game winning streak end in a 72-67 upset loss at CS-Northridge as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Long Beach State (14-10) is on a six-game winning streak after a 93-88 victory at CS-Northridge as a pick ‘em on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara only shot 32.8% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 contests. The Gauchos have rebounded too over the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stay on the road where they have a 7-3 record in true road games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The biggest weakness for the Gauchos is that they are last in the Big West by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Beach struggles with their outside shooting as they are at the bottom of the conference with a 25.1% shooting percentage from 3-point range. Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Beach has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (733) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (734). THE SITUATION: Florida (13-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-67 loss at Kentucky as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (20-3) has won 11 of their last 12 games in a 79-69 victory as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators allowed the Wildcats to nail 45.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Florida has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Gators have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Florida stays on the road where they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 2nd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.7% when playing on the road. And in their last five games, Florida has held their opponents to 37.2% shooting which is resulting in just 61.8 Points-Per-Game. But when the Gators go on the road from Tallahassee, they only make 39.9% of their shots which generates just 65.4 PPG. Their effective field goal percentage of 41.8% ranks 357th in the nation. Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Alabama nailed 13 shots from behind the arc in their win against Tigers on Saturday — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after making 13 or more 3-pointers in their last game. And Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats has taken full advantage of his team’s embarrassing defensive effort in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge game with Oklahoma where they allowed 93 points as they held LSU to just 30.6% shooting after containing Vanderbilt to 25.0% shooting in their previous game. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than 35% shooting — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to 37% or less shooting from the field. The Crimson Tide has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against SEC rivals. Alabama ranks 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 2nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.4%. They return home where they have held their guests to 34.5% shooting which results in 61.7 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama does play at the fastest pace in the nation with their games averaging 73.5 adjusted possessions per game. But Florida sees only 69.0 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 80th in the nation — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Florida-Alabama ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (733) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (645) and the Michigan State Spartans (646). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-7) has won four games in a row after their 81-46 win at Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Michigan State (14-9) has lost two games in a row after their 61-55 loss to Rutgers as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins held the Golden Gophers to just 34.2% shooting in their victory on Saturday. They have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in only 55.4 Points-Per-Game. Maryland nailed 52.4% of their shots in the win which was the second-best shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Terrapins have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have all played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Now Maryland stays on the road where their 67.3 PPG that they average is -3.7 PPG below their season average. The Terrapins rank 29th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they collapse to ranking 200th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road in hostile environments (even after shooting well at Minnesota). Maryland has played 8 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The Terrapins do get much of their offense from second-chance opportunities as they rank 2nd in the Big Ten by rebounding 31.2% of their missed shots. But they will not get many second chances against the Spartans who lead the Big Ten by holding their opponents to only 23.4% of their missed shots. Michigan State has played 5 straight Unders after losing their last game. In their last five games, the Spartans are scoring only 63.6 PPG. When playing at home in the Breslin Center, Sparty ranks only 89th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But head coach Tom Izzo’s team still plays tough defense as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which translates into just 59.9 PPG. Michigan State ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. They have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Maryland has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Maryland-Michigan State ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (645) and the Michigan State Spartans (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). THE SITUATION: Niagara (12-9) has won three games in a row after their 76-73 victory against Canisius as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Siena (15-8) had won two games in a row before their 71-66 upset loss at Manhattan as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Purple Eagles have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Niagara goes back on the road where they rank 48th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.0% — and they rank in the top-64 in the nation in 3-point defense and inside the arc. And while the Purple Eagles rank 250th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 101.6, that mark plummets to 95.5 when playing on the road in hostile environments, ranking 306th in the nation. They only make 44.7% of their shots inside the arc in these true road games, ranking  307th in the nation. Niagara has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road — including five of their last six games away from home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Siena allowed Manhattan to make 44.9% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Saints have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in conference play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Siena has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in three days. They return home where they are making only 47.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 298th in the nation. The Saints have played their last 4 games at home Under the Total — and the Under is a decisive 30-12-2 in their last 44 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less when playing on the road. Siena has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints see 66.6 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 209th in the nation — and they average 19.0 seconds per possession, ranking 325th in the nation. Siena’s opponents average 16.9 seconds per possession which is the 45th quickest clip in the nation — but now they play a Purple Eagles team that averages 20.4 seconds per game, ranking 361st in the nation. Niagara averages 62.3 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 353rd in the nation. Both of these teams are going to crawl in this game. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.