At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games away from home after a loss at home at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big 10 foe as a home favorite. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Bulldogs generated 529 yards against the Tigers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Georgia did show some vulnerability with their defense as LSU gained 549 yards against them. Facing the Buckeyes will be their toughest test this season. The Total is set high for Georgia with the Total in the low-60s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range including three of their four games this season with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points on a neutral field. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275) in the College Football Semifinals in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was happy to reach the Semifinals last year after beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title — but now they are aiming to win the National Championship. They should build off their momentum — they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread victory. And while the Wolverines gave up 456 total yards to the Boilermakers, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 20 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season. He has specialized in the vertical passing game by averaging 18.4 yards per completion in his last two games with seven of his 24 completions being of 20 or more yards and four of those completions being 40 or more yards. The Wolverines were probably holding back their passing attack for the Ohio State game — now with the benefit of bowl practice, expect another growth spurt in development in the former five-star recruit out of high school. The Wolverines’ red zone issues also improved late in the season — after a 64% touchdown rate in their red zone trips in the first two months of the season, they scored TDs in 75% of their red zone trips after November 1st. Michigan should remain on schedule after ranking 6th in Standard Down Success Rate — and they face a Horned Frogs defense that was 61st in Standard Down Success Rate Allowed including ranking 69th in that department specifically against the run. TCU allowed four of their last five opponents to either rush for 200 or more yards or average at least 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Wolverines may have the best offensive line in the nation — I suspect they will overwhelm the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 defense that attempts to hide a small defensive front. TCU gave up 208 rushing yards to Kansas State — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. That Wildcats team is similar — albeit with less talent — than what the Horned Frogs will face today in the Wolverines. TCU’s defense can be scored on — Kansas and Oklahoma State combined for 71 points against them. They rank 128th in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed on Standard Downs which is a scary proposition against this Wolverines team. The Horned Frogs only outgained their opponents by +20.2 YPG when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread only once in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against ranked opponents. Finally, 11 of the last 15 CFP Semifinal games have been decided by more than 14 points — and 8 of those winners were favorites laying more than seven points. 10* CFB TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (39-10) won for the third time in their last four games in their 39-10 victory against North Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 3rd. Tennessee (10-2) has won two of their last three games after their 56-0 win against Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson’s season was jumpstarted against the Tar Heels when head coach Dabo Swinney benched junior D.J. Uigalelei for freshman phenom Cade Klubnik in the first half of that game. Klubnik completed 20 of his 24 passes for 279 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to lead the Tigers to the 29-point win. Klubnik was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the 2022 class — and it was clear his presence on the field energized his teammates. Now this Clemson team looks to build momentum for a potential national championship run next year. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after a win by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games on the road after a win by 28 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point-spread win. And after Clemson passed for 317 yards overall against the Tar Heels, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Swinney has to adjust two significant opt-outs with defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson leaving the team to prepare for the NFL draft. But star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee is playing in this game and the players entering the transfer portal are limited. The Tigers remain loaded with talent on defense after holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game this season. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Tennessee’s losses at this point of the season are much more significant. Their top two wide receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Their top linebacker Jeremy Banks has also opted out. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left the program to become the head coach at South Florida. But the biggest loss has been the season-ending injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker who has since left the team for the NFL draft. Senior Joe Milton will be their quarterback tonight after he completed only 11 of 21 passes for just 147 yards against the Commodores. Milton does not operate the Volunteers' offense like Hooker was able to do. He originally played at Michigan where he was unable to hold on to the starting quarterback job in 2020 — the Wolverines’ 2-4 season. After losing the starting job, he transferred to Tennessee where he was the presumed starter in head coach Josh Heupel’s first season. But he faltered and was quickly usurped by Hooker who took the quarterback gig and ran with it the last two seasons. Hilton has a strong arm — but his accuracy remains a problem and he is not as mobile as Hooker. The Volunteers relied on their running game against the Volunteers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by three or more touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Volunteers’ defense is a weak link — especially in the passing game where they ranked 94th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and gave up 450 or more passing yards in three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 bowl games under Swinney. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at USC as a 4-point underdog on November 26th. South Carolina (8-4) has won two straight games and three of their last four after a 31-30 upset win at Clemson as a 14-point underdog on November 26th. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks have pulled off two straight upset victories as they upset Tennessee as a 22.5-point favorite before beating Clemson the next week. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after upsetting two straight opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset in their last contest. Additionally, the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Second-year head coach Shane Beamer will be missing many of the key players who made these last two upsets possible. The top three defensive backs have opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft as has their stud defensive tackle Zach Pickens and a starting offensive lineman. Beamer also lost his fourth starting defensive back along with their top two running backs and a good tight end to the transfer portal. Furthermore, one of their leading wide receivers, Josh Vann, remains out with an injury. As it is, this was a group this season that got outgained in yardage by -13.3 net Yards-Per-Game. This team won both of the games that were decided by one-scoring possession. In their five games away from home, South Carolina got outscored by -4.8 PPG — and they got outgained in yardage by -30.2 net YPG. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Fighting Irish did not force a turnover against the Trojans — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games, they have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Quarterback Drew Pyne completed 23 of 26 passes for 318 yards with three touchdown passes against USC — and the Irish have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they passed for 280 or more yards. Pyne has entered the transfer portal given the return of Tyler Buchner after missing most of the season with a shoulder injury. Buchner looks good to go after taking part in all 14 of the practices in preparation for this game. He is considered significantly better than Pyne. Buchner put up meager numbers in his two starts of the season (including a tough assignment against Ohio State) — but this is a much better Notre Dame offense now with significant improvement coming from their offensive line. The Fighting Irish have a good ground game with a three-headed monster of Chris Tyree, Logan Diggs, and Auric Estime. The Irish averaged 183 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Gamecocks were vulnerable against good running teams even when their defense was at full strength — they surrendered 190 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has their own opt-out and transfer portal issues. Most significantly, their All-American tight end Michael Mayer and likely NFL first-round draft pick Isaiah Foskey have opted out. Three other Irish players then Pyne entered the transfer portal — but they combined for just 81 snaps this season.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for the Fighting Irish who want to continue the momentum under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by seven points or less when playing on a neutral field. 20* CFB South Carolina-Notre Dame ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington (10-2) has won six straight games after their 51-33 win at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 26th. Texas (8-4) has won three of their last four games after their 38-27 win against Baylor as a 10-point favorite on November 25th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington to continue to ride their momentum established under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three straight games. The Huskies took a 28-27 halftime lead in that contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Additionally, Washington gained a whopping 733 yards against the Cougars' defense while averaging 10.65 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while they outgained Washington State by +270 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after a game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Junior quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. should be motivated in this contest after declaring that he will return to Washington for his senior season — this will be the former Indiana transfer’s first bowl game in his career. He completed 25 of 43 passes for 485 yards with three touchdowns against the Cougars — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for 375 or more yards in their last game. Penix leads an offense that leads the nation in Pass Success Rate. They average 377 passing YPG — and the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against opponents who average 275 or more passing YPG. Washington enters this bowl game with a full roster — but Texas is down some key players. The Longhorns’ top-two running backs, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have opted out for the NFL. Several depth players on both sides of the ball are in the transfer portal. But the biggest loss might be linebacker Demarion Overshown who is also opting out for the NFL draft. He led the Texas defense in tackles and quarterback pressure rate. The Huskies lead the nation in Havoc Rate Allowed — and they gave up only seven sacks this season. That leaves exposed a vulnerable Texas defense that ranked 85th in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating two straight Big 12 opponents in a row. And while they have two straight double-digit victories, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after two or more wins by 10 or more points in a row. Freshman Quinn Ewers struggled down the stretch of the season with his average depth of target dropping to just 5.4 yards per attempt — far below the 11-yard target depth for his passes on the season. He also sees his adjusted completion percentage drop by 20% when facing pressure — and now he faces a Washington defense that averaged 3.0 sacks per game and ranked 21st by Pro Football Focus in their Pass Rush grading.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington-Texas ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (8-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. Texas Tech (7-5) has won three games in a row after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: For those that question the motivation Ole Miss has for this game, then they don’t appreciate what Lane Kiffin is trying to do with this football program. Kiffin proclaimed himself the “portal king” after bringing in 15 transfer players last year — with many of them highly recruited out of high school. Kiffin firmly believes the paradigm has changed. Gone are the days of bringing in huge freshmen classes of players who will stay in the program for five years. Instead, high-profile coaches like Kiffin can recruit players from other schools and offer them high-profile jobs that represent either an upgrade from their current situation or more playing time from where they are at. Given that, bowl games like this — especially in prime time — are essential recruiting opportunities to sell the program. Now that the black cloud regarding the rumors of him taking the Auburn job that continued past kick-off in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State last month, Kiffin and his new contract extension are all-in with this program. It starts by ending the season on a positive note. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. And while Ole Miss has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kiffin’s roster is close to fully intact with no players opting out for the NFL draft. Three players entered the transfer portal including a cornerback in the two deep — but the departing defensive end only had 31 snaps and backup quarterback Luke Altmyer is clearly behind sophomore Jaxson Dart. The former USC transfer completed 63% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is complemented by freshman phenom running back Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 439 yards with a 6.18 Yards-Per-Carry despite the Rebels losing those games — all to bowl teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, by the way. Ole Miss outscored their opponents by +10.0 Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +109.5 net Yards-Per-Game. In their five road games, the Rebels outscored their opponents by +5.8 PG and outgained them by +135.0 net YPG. Led by Judkins and Dart who averaged 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in his 117 rushing attempts, Ole Miss was third in the nation by averaging 262 rushing YPG. They should have plenty of success running against this Red Raiders defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 166 rushing YPG. The Texas Tech defense is the weak link in this game — they rank 97th in the nation by allowing 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, the Red Raiders are allowing 540.0 YPG. This team comes into this bowl game riding high with two straight upsets against Iowa State and then the Sooners. But Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset against a Big 12 rival including four of these last five circumstances. Additionally, the Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point-spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. This team overachieved in the first season under head coach Joey McGuire — they have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. But this group is just 1-4 on the road with them getting outscored by -7.6 PPG. This Texas Tech is also without their All-American defensive end Tyree Wilson who has been out with an injury since November. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: McGuire was an assistant head coach for Baylor last year after being their tight ends coach for years — but his previous experience was as a long-time high school coach in Texas so this is his first bowl game as a head coach. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the SEC. Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah State (6-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis (6-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog to end their regular season. This game is being played at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: SMU lost all four of their games decided by one possession. After settling for a 6-6 mark last year with 13 starters back from that squad, expectations were higher for this team rather than settling for another 6-6 campaign and a bowl date with a 6-6 team from the Mountain West Conference. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Memphis has a dynamic offense led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan who completed 27 of 44 passes for 287 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. Henigan will be challenged by a Utah State defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But the bigger problem for Memphis is their defense as they allow 27.3 Points-Per-Game — and in their five games on the road, they allowed their opponents to generate 420.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.2 PPG. The Tigers have a 25-4 record at home at Liberty Bowl Memorial since 2017 — but they were just 1-4 on the road this season. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after the first month of the season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. For Utah State, contrary to published reports, senior running back Calvin Tyler, Jr. is not opting-out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Said Tyler about these rumors, he is “definitely playing.” He rushed for 1043 yards this season. He is joined by junior quarterback Cooper Legas who may be labeled a third-stringer by some given the talent that second-year head coach Blake Anderson brought in through the transfer portal, but Legas was the Most Valuable Player in last year’s Louisiana Bowl when he led the Aggies to a 24-13 victory against Oregon State. He completed 23 of 40 passes for 306 yards and added 51 rushing yards against the stout Boise State defense in Utah State’s last game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. They should have success against this Memphis defense that ranks 104th in the FBS in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Tigers also rank 126th in the nation in Points Allowed from opponent trips inside their 40-yard line. After a 1-4 start which included losses at Alabama and BYU (along with bad losses to Weber State and UNLV), Utah State won five of their last seven games. The Aggies have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Anderson’s teams at Utah State and in his previous stint at Arkansas State have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival by double-digits. Anderson’s Utah State teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (6-6) has won two of their last three games after their 41-13 win at Texas State as a 5-point favorite on November 26th. Houston (7-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 37-30 upset loss to Tulsa as a 13-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the Cougars who entered the season as one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference and a dark horse favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Years Six Bowl Game. But after returning 13 starters from their 12-2 campaign last year,             the Cougars underperformed due mostly to a defense that gave up 33.5 Points-Per-Game and 431.3 total Yards-Per-Game — a -13.1 net PPG and -130.2 net YPG drop from a season ago. The offense remained potent behind senior quarterback Clayton Thune — but for a team that passes the ball at the 12th highest rate in the nation, the weather conditions in Shreveport this afternoon will not be conducive to chucking the ball around 40 or more times. The temperature will be in the mid-20s with winds gusting in the 13-14 miles per hour range. The hardened ball with cold hands and winds impacting the trajectory of thrown passes impacts the ability to successfully execute the intermediate to long passing game — and the Ragin’ Cajuns will know this and be able to adapt. Thune complete 26 of 47 passes for 386 yards in the losing effort to the Golden Hurricane — but Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after passing for at least 375 yards in their last contest. The Cougars averaged 7.23 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 506 total yards against Tulsa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in bowl games — and head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of his 9 bowl games. UL-Louisiana has a 7-3 straight-up record in bowl games. They should be very motivated to play well close to home against a higher-profile team from the American Athletic Conference. They lost all three of their games decided by one-scoring possession — so they could have had eight or even nine wins with a few more breaks. The Ragin’ Cajuns have some players opting out mostly on offense — but they will have sophomore quarterback Chase Fields under center after he missed several games in the middle of the year. He did return at the end of the season — and he completed 16 of 26 passes for 187 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the offense to 41 points. This game is important for the program as they build for next season — and Fields should have success against this Cougars' defense. Houston ranks 87th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They were 119th in the FBS by allowing 2.92 net points per drive — and they ranked 83rd in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. The strength of the Ragin’ Cajuns is probably their secondary which remains at full strength for this contest. UL-Lafayette held the Bobcats to just 133 passing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 21st in the nation in Opponent  Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they were graded as the 12th best coverage secondary by Pro Football Focus. They also rank 45th in the FBS in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. UL-Lafayette has covered the pint spray in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-4) has lost three games in a row after a 49-14 upset loss at home against New Mexico State as a 24-point favorite on November 26th. Toledo (8-5) won the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in a 17-7 victory against Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite on December 3rd. This game will be played at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty limped into the postseason getting upset in three straight games at Connecticut and Virginia Tech before laying an egg at home by five touchdowns as a 24-point favorite. Those losses against the Huskies and Hokies were just by four combined points before that debacle against the Aggies. Since that contest, head coach Hugh Freeze left to take the head coaching job at Auburn. Linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge serves as the interim head coach before Jamey Chadwell takes over the program after serving as the Coastal Carolina coach. Pulling the upset tonight will also Liberty to end the season on a positive note after the disappointing end to the season. The Flames are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while they allowed New Mexico State to rush for 214 yards, they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with two or more weeks of rest. Liberty has been a solid team playing away from home — they are 4-2 on the road with an average scoring margin of +5.4 Points-Per-Game. They outgain their opponents playing away from home by +79.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Flames have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Toledo dominated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game by outgaining them by +128 net yards. But despite scoring 32.0 PPG this season, they have topped the 30-point mark just once in their last six games. The Rockets have a good defense — but they are vulnerable to giving up big plays. Toledo ranks 114th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed and 66th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. They were 5-1 when playing at home — but in their seven games on the road, they were just 3-4 while getting outscored by -5.5 PPG. The Rockets' offense will be challenged by a Flames defense that ranks 8th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Liberty has been stout against both the run and the pass — they rank 15th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 6th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 4th in Defensive Havoc Rate while leading the nation by averaging 9.1 tackles-for-loss per game and tied for third in the nation with 41 sacks. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games under head coach Jason Candle.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Liberty has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221) in the Famous Potato Idaho Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Jose State (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-14 win against Hawai’i as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. Eastern Michigan (8-4) has won three games in a row after their 38-19 upset win against Central Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This has been an emotional season for San Jose State after freshman running back Cameron Wright was killed crossing the street on an e-scooter in late October. It is probably not a coincidence that the Spartans ended the season failing to cover the point spread in six straight games. But this group can put a bow on their season with a successful effort in their bowl game — and it would be the first bowl victory for this program since 2015. The last thing I considered before investing in this game was the temperates in Boise being in the low-30s. How would this Bay Area team deal with the cold conditions? San Jose State played at Utah State on November 19th a month ago with the temperatures in Logan dropping into the 20s — and they lost 35-31 as a 1.5-point underdog. But former Hawai’i quarterback Chevan Cordeiro was effective under center by completing 20 of 30 passes for 257 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Cordeiro is a dual-threat who ran for 508 yards from scrambles this year — so I think this team will handle the weather just fine. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The Spartans’ defense will certainly travel and show up in the cold weather — they held their opponents to 20.3 Points-Per-Game this season. Led by defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall, San Jose State finished 14th in the nation in Havoc Rate while generating 36 sacks, ranking 5th in the nation. The Spartans ranked 20th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Head coach Brent Brennan brings his entire roster to Boise with no opt-outs or players in the transfer portal — and he has a healthy team. San Jose State thrives in the turnover department with a +12 net turnover margin on the season. Cordeiro protects the football with only four interceptions this year. They did not force a turnover against the Rainbow Warriors — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after not committing a turnover. They have not committed more than one turnover in a game this entire season — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after not committing more than one turnover in two more games in a row. Additionally, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Eastern Michigan got outgained in yardage this season — but they benefited from a 5-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession to reach eight wins. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win at home against a Mid-American Conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a win by 17 or more points. They are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point-spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 37 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Chippewas to only 175 yards in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Eastern Michigan will struggle to protect quarterback Taylor Powell — they ranked 85th in Pass Protection while giving up 30 sacks. On defense, they ranked 129th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potation Bowl ESPN Special with the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (6-6) was on a three-game winning streak before losing at Army by a 34-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog on November 19th. Marshall (8-4) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 victory against Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Connecticut vastly overachieved this season under first-year head coach Jim Mora. The Huskies only won one game last year after not playing in 2020 because of COVID. Mora inherited a mess — but the former Atlanta Falcons and UCLA head coach brought a sense of professionalism to the program. This is an important game for his football time — not only are they building momentum for next season, but this game will also help with recruiting. Expect a spirited effort from the double-digit underdogs. As it is, Connecticut has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Huskies closed out their season winning five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning five of their last seven games. They had covered the point spread in seven games in a row before their loss to Army — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Connecticut played an ambitious schedule this year as an independent with games against Michigan and Fresno State. Mora will use this game for the continued development of freshman quarterback Zion Turner. He is complemented by freshman running back Victor Rosa who ran for 561 yards and nine touchdowns. The Huskies enter this game at nearly full strength. No player is opting out for this game (a bowl game advantage for a program lacking NFL talent) — and only running back Nate Carter entered the transfer portal after losing out in playing time to Rosa. Wide receivers Cam Ross and Keenan Marion have been injured but might be able to return for this game. Marshall may be due for a letdown against a less-than-inspiring opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last six games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contents. And while the Thundering Herd surrendered 291 passing yards to the Panthers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last game. Marshall has an outstanding defense that held their opponents to just 16.2 Points-Per-Game. But they benefited from winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They were also fortunate to end the season with a +7 net turnover margin. The Thundering Herd have not committed a turnover in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they did not commit more than one turnover. They have also failed to cover the points spread in 35 of their last 51 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Marshall can struggle to score — they rank 127th in the nation by scoring just 2.7 points per drive inside their opponents' 40-yard line.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd have doled to cover the points spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Texas (7-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-27 loss to UTSA in the Conference USA Championship Game as an 8-point underdog on December 2nd. Boise State (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-16 upset loss to Fresno State as a 3-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. This game will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas should be plenty motivated to play well in this game. After they failed to stay close with the Roadrunners in their first trip to the Conference USA Championship Game under Sean Littrell, the administration fired him in his seventh year with the program. Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett serves as the interim head coach before Washington State offensive coordinator, Eric Morris, takes over as the new face of the program. The team is in good hands under Bennett who was previously the head coach at SMU. The Mean Green lost all five of their bowl games under Littrell — this group would love to erase that mark. They are led by their 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune who is entering the NFL draft after this game but still decided to play in it. This provides the former New York Yankees prospect an opportunity to audition for an NFL team who may not be drafting their next starting QB but who are looking for a capable backup to bolster their quarterback room. For the love of God after handicapping the roster attrition for the 12 teams that played in bowl games today, North Texas enters this game with zero opt-outs, zero players in the transfer portal, and a healthy roster. That’s not why I am investing in them, but it doesn’t hurt. The Mean Green have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they gave up 571 total yards to UTSA, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last contest. They went into halftime of that game trailing by a 24-10 score — but they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Aune is a gunslinger who passed for over 3300 yards with 32 touchdown passes. He is complemented by a three-headed monster in the backfield with Ikaika Ragsdale, Ayo Adeyi, and Oscar Adaway III helping the team generate 202 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking in the top 25 in the nation. The Mean Green are happy to get into a scoring fest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a contest where 70 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State is playing in its first bowl game since 2019 after opting out of the postseason in each of the last two seasons. They only gained 321 yards in their loss to Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. They won seven of their final nine games after head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and benched senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier for Taylor Green. The 6’6 freshman offers a dual threat as he averaged 40.5 rushing YPG with his legs. But he only generated 194.4 passing YPG in the air and may not have the chops just yet to outduel Aune. The Broncos lean on their defense — they held the Bulldogs to only 72 rushing yards and 245 total yards. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in non-conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202) in the Bahamas Bowl. Miami (OH) (6-6) won three of their last four games to end their regular season concluding with an 18-17 victory against Ball State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 22nd. UAB (6-6) won two of their last three games after a 37-27 victory at Louisiana Tech as an 18.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) looks to cap off their season under head coach Chuck Martin in his ninth year with the program. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has missed the last two games due to injury — and redshirt freshman Aveon Smith has played well in his absence. Gabbert planned to enter the transfer portal earlier this month — but he has since rescinded that decision. It is unclear if he will play in this game — but his return is a good indicator that there are good feelings inside the program moving forward. The RedHawks have covered the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after a narrow win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last contest. And while Miami (OH) gave up 265 rushing yards to the Cardinals, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last game. The RedHawks are a good defensive team that only allows 22.5 Points-Per-Game. They should play better in defending the run considering they ranked 40th in the nation by holding their opponents to 135.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 22nd in the FBS in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. If Smith is under center again, he offers Miami (OH) a dual-threat option that Gabbert lacks. He led the team with 503 rushing after rushing for 84 yards against Ball State. He also passed for 217 yards with a touchdown pass. UAB may be enjoying the Bahamas with their new head coach Trent Dilfer waiting in the wings. After Bill Clark surprised the program by stepping down in the summer, offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent was tapped as the interim head coach. He led the team to a 6-6 record and this bowl — but it could have been more after they lost all five games decided by one-scoring possession. While the Blazers are better than their .500 record, their motivation now as a double-digit favorite is the more pertinent question at hand. As it is, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after only covering the point spread once in their last three contests. And while the Blazers surrendered 467 total yards to the Bulldogs in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 450 or more yards. After a four-turnover game on the road at Western Kentucky, UAB has only committed three turnovers — and never more than one a game — in five straight contests. But the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. To compound matters, they will be without their leading rusher, DeWayne McBride who is dealing with an unspecified injury. While senior running back Jermaine Brown ran for 832 yards this season, McBride was the best offensive player on the team with his 1713 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: UAB is in a bit of a transition from the Clark era to the hiring of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Dilfer whose head coaching experience is at a Nashville private high school. Miami (OH) is an established program under Martin that have a solid record of performing well in the postseason. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games including their 27-14 win against North Texas in the Frisco Football Classic last year. Miami (OH) may not pull the upset — but they should keep this game close. 10* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-4) has won seven games in a row after their 30-0 win against Wyoming as a 14-point favorite last Friday. Boise State (9-3) has won three in a row — and seven of their last eight — after their 42-23 victory against Utah State as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt given the midseason injury to senior quarterback Jake Haener. The gunslinger will be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft this spring. In the seven games he finished this year, he averaged 330.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. For the year, he completed 73.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Even without Haener under center all season, the Bulldogs ranked 15th in the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they were top 25 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. They scored 30.9 Points-Per-Game and generated 407.0 Yards-Per-Game. They should continue off the momentum they have established since Haener returned to action. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after winning three or more conference games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. Fresno State has a good defense that gives up only 20.8 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by double-digits. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos' season turned around after a 2-2 start when offensive coordinator Tim Plough was replaced by former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and veteran offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freshman Taylor Green took over under center — and he led the team to a 6-1 record. While Green offers a running threat, he is not as dynamic as a passer as he averages only 196.9 passing YPG. He led an offense that averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating 6.75 or YPP in their last game. Boise State gets to host this game on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-3) rides a three-game winning streak after their 47-27 win against Kansas as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (12-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 62-14 victory against Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINT(S): I suspect the bubble bursts for the Horned Frogs who have been riding a wave of good fortune this season. TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. They have won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They enjoy a +10 net turnover margin on the year — and they have only committed two turnovers in their last four games. Now this team faces the pressure of needing the win to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Do the Horned Frogs still make the playoff with a loss this afternoon? Who knows what this (crooked) committee will do? Before one says, “of course, they do, the one-loss teams are in!” — keep in mind that TCU would be at least a touchdown underdog on a neutral field against both Ohio State and Alabama. The committee faces an existential crisis regarding how they justify their TV show (which promotes their later televised games involving the ranked teams, always positioned for the game to represent a de-facto playoff game). They may decide to dodge the Ohio State versus Alabama question by screwing the Big 12 team — and the analytics will defend that position. The uncertainty adds pressure — and, frankly, the fact that TCU may think they will still can back may only compound matters. I don’t like it. As it is, the Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They only outgained the Cyclones last week by +47 net yards — they benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. But now they go on the road where they are only outgaining their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game while allowing their opponents to generate 415.7 net YPG. We saw last night with USC how teams with shaky defenses perform under pressure in neutral environments against physical opponents. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field when favored by seven points or less. Kansas State gets to play the role of the spoiler — and they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory against a Big 12 opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Wildcats generated 7.16 Yards-Per-Play against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last contest. Kansas State averaged 6.33 YPP in their previous game at West Virginia — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Spencer Howard will be the starting quarterback in this game with Adrian Martinez still not 100%.   What Howard lacks in matching Martinez’s rushing ability, he makes up for in offering a vertical passing threat. Howard has 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions under key situations this season. In his last four starts for the Wildcats, he is leading an offense that generates 6.2 YPP — and Kansas State has outscored their opponents by an average score of 44-15. Martinez should be available as a backup — and he may get to play a few special packages that emphasize his running ability. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 38-28 loss at TCU on October 22nd in a game where Martinez got injured in the contest and then Howard got banged up coming in relief which neutralized his effectiveness. The Wildcats held a 28-10 second-quarter lead before Howard got injured and they did not score the rest of the way. But Kansas State has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Horned Frogs. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Toledo (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 20-14 upset loss at Western Michigan as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Ohio (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 38-14 win against Bowling Green as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 22nd. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo limps into the MAC Championship Game — but keep in mind that they had clinched their spot in this game for weeks. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback with starter DeQuan Finn dealing with upper body and ankle injuries and backup Tucker Gleason hampered by an injury to his non-throwing hand. But Finn did start last week before getting pulled after throwing two interceptions. Expect Finn to play better. This is a step-up game for the Rockets who were projected as the favorites to win the conference title this year. Seventh-year head coach Jason Candle needs to bring this one home with rumblings getting louder in the Toledo fan base that his top-rated conference recruiting classes in five of the last six years should have produced more than one championship. The Rockets’ victory today should start with the play of their defense. They rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 11th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. They held the Broncos to just 188 total yards but lost that game because of a -3 net turnover margin. Toledo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. The offensive effort last week was a disappointment — but they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. Ohio has an even more dire situation at quarterback after Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Rourke posted a raw QBR of 81 which was the second-best mark of all quarterbacks playing for a Group of Five teams. The Bobcats experience a big drop-off in play with backup quarterback C.J. Harris who completed only 10 of 21 passes for 196 yards last week. While Harris does offer the team a dual-threat rushing option, now Toledo has game tape on how Ohio wants to deploy him. Not much was expected of this Bobcats team that was 3-9 last year in the first season under head coach Tim Ahlin. But the Bobcats have lived on an opportunistic defense that has forced 24 turnovers this year. However, it is difficult to continue to rely on winning the turnover battle as Ohio has a +13 net turnover margin this season. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The takeaways are obscuring the fact that the Bobcats are getting outgained in yardage this season. When playing away from home, Ohio is getting outscored by -4.5 net Points-Per-Game and outgained by -77.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has pulled off four upset wins this year — but one of those upsets was not at home against the Rockets earlier this year when they got beat by a 35-23 score. The Bobcats rank 113th in the nation in  Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they give up 441.8 total YPG. Toledo has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow 425 or more YPG. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Blowout of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won five of their last six games after their 63-21 victory at Colorado as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. USC (11-1) has won five in a row after a 38-27 win against Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah will be quite familiar with these circumstances tonight as they are playing in their fourth Pac-12 Championship Game in the last five seasons. This will be a confident team who rallied from 14-0 and 21-7 first-quarter deficits to defeat the Trojans at home by a 43-42 score on October 15th. Head coach Kyle Whittingham should have an interesting game plan to slow down USC’s likely Heisman Trophy quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams passed for 381 yards and five touchdowns, the Utes sacked him four times and pressured him into some bad throws after that initial quarter. USC only scored 20 points in the final three-quarters of that game. The Utah defense stopped the Trojans in 15 of their 28 third or fourth downs. Since the USC game, the Utes have held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and four of the touchdowns they gave up came in garbage time. Furthermore, Utah has given up more than 67 rushing yards only once in those five games. The Utes held the Buffaloes last week to just 185 total yards despite giving the most points since that Trojans game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Utah should build off their late-season momentum as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Utes generated a whopping 662 yards against Colorado — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Quarterback Cam Rising completed 17 of 19 passes for 234 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Rising starred in the first meeting with USC by completing 30 of 44 passes for 415 yards. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid was unstoppable by catching all 16 of his targets for 234 yards. The weak link in this game is the Trojans' defense — they are surrendering 33.4 PPG and 475.6 YPG when playing away from home. USC ranks 116th in the nation in Opponents' Pass Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. USC gave up 318 passing yards to Notre Dame last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last contest. They have been fortunate with a +22 net turnover margin on the season with only two giveaways all season — the second-best turnover margin this season is owned by Duke a +15 which is a dramatic gap.

FINAL TAKE: The stakes could not be higher for USC since it appears that a victory would get them into the College Football Playoff. This will be their third-straight high-emotion game after rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Utah-USC Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). THE SITUATION: UNLV (4-7) lost for the sixth time in a row after a 31-25 upset loss at Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Nevada (2-9) has lost nine games in a row after a 41-14 loss to Fresno State as a 22-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: UNLV got caught traveling away from the mainland to play in Honolulu last week. They outgained the Rainbow Warriors by a 427 to 369 margin in yards in that game but still lost the game. The Rebels did get a good game out of quarterback Doug Brumfield who completed 23 of 37 passes for 288 yards while adding 55 more yards on the ground. UNLV has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rebels are a better team than their record indicates. Brumfield missed two games this season due to injury — and they averaged just 7.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But when Brumfield is healthy and under center, they are scoring 30.0 PPG. They lost all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They played tough against quality competition a 4-point loss to San Diego State, a 7-point loss to Fresno State, and a 6-point loss at California. They also scored 21 points on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame. Returning home to Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip, UNLV is scoring 35.6 PPG and generating 411.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Nevada started the season with two straight wins — but they are reeling now after getting scoring only 17 combined points and giving up 82 points to Boise State and Fresno State in their last two contests. Their average losing margin in their nine-game losing streak has been by three touchdowns. They lost to Incarnate Word out of the FCS by 14 points. At this point of the season, it appears that the Wolf Pack are low on morale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Nevada gave up 524 yards last week to the Bulldogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Nate Cox is completing only 51% of his passes and averaging just 5.7 yards-per-attempt. They go back on the road where they are gaining only 244.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV will be motivated to end their season on a high note while avenging a 51-20 loss at Nevada to their in-state rival last week. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-1) has won two games in a row after their 40-10 win against Miami (FL) as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (7-4) comes off their 63-38 upset win against Tennessee as a 23.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks come off their Super Bowl as they rebounded from a 38-6 shellacking to Florida by shocking a Volunteers team that was still dreaming of a possible College Playoff berth before getting creamed by 25 points. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler had thrown only eight touchdown passes all season before tossing six last week — but I suspect that speaks more about the state of the wretched Tennessee pass defense than it does about a sudden jump in quality in the Gamecocks passing attack. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home against an SEC rival. And in their last 11 games after a point spread victory, they are then 1-9-1 ATS. They go back on the road where are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 492.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to good rushing attacks — they rank 128th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 121st in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Led by running back Will Shipley, Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in the FBS in Line Yards. After suffering their lone loss of the season to Notre Dame, the Tigers have scored 71 combined points in their last two games while averaging 443 YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 76 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Clemson defense remains stout as always — they held the Hurricanes to just 98 yards last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate while ranking 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. They also rank 4th in Havoc Rate — and South Carolina ranks 128th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed. The Tigers stay at home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +137.0 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson needs to put up a big number for style points with the playoff committee that is not enamored with them right now — and they need to have their offense clicking before playing the suspect North Carolina defense in the ACC Championship Game next week. The Tigers’ playoff chances remain undervalued since with their strong possibility of only having one loss by the end of next week. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in November. The Gamecocks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Clemson. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (4-7) had their two-game winning streak end in a 12-10 upset loss at home against Western Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Eastern Michigan (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-24 upset victory at Kent State as a 7.5-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Eagles are bowl eligible with seven victories — but they cannot win the Mid-American Conference West Division since they trail Toledo by one game with the Rockets controlling the tie-breaker after beating Eastern Michigan earlier in the season. So while they would love to beat one of their in-state rivals that handed them a 31-10 loss last season, the urgency level is not extreme. Frankly, the Eagles have been overachieving all season after benefitting from winning five of their six games decided by one scoring possession — and they have pulled off four upset wins this year. They are getting outscored on the year — and they are getting outgained by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after an upset victory — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 11 games when playing with eight or more days between games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. They return home to Ypsilanti where they are just 2-3 while getting outscored by -7.2 net Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -104.0 net YPG. Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games played on a Friday. Central Michigan lost their (realistic) chances to qualify for a bowl last week in their upset loss to the Broncos. That game was a mess — starting with a power outage that delayed the game to the Chippewas committing too many penalties and enduring a -2 net turnover margin. There remains a chance that earning their fifth win could set up the possibility of securing a bowl bid despite their losing record, but the probability of that is low. This game is likely the de-facto bowl game for head coach Jim McElwain’s team after a 9-4 campaign with a bowl victory against Washington State last season. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to a MAC rival. And while they gave up 255 rushing yards to Western Michigan last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. McElwain has made a change at quarterback by not relying on sophomore Daniel Richardson who is a pocket passer. Instead, he has been giving snaps to two redshirt freshmen dual-threat quarterbacks, Bert Emanuel, Jr., and Jade Bauer. Emanuel, Jr. is averaging 140 rushing YPG himself — and the Chippewas have won all four of their games when they gain at least 160 yards on the ground. Eastern Michigan allows 159 rushing YPG — and they have given up 160 or more yards on the ground in five of their games this year. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in November. The Chippewas have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Friday.

FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Eagles — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (4-6) has lost six of their last seven games after a 20-14 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Texas Tech (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak in a 43-28 win against Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State got upset for the third time this season with their loss to the Cowboys last week. It was also their fifth loss by one scoring possession. The Cyclones are still outscoring their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +89.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They remain motivated to win their remaining two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State should play hard for head coach Matt Campbell as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers struggled by throwing three interceptions last week — but the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after committing at least three turnovers. Iowa State has played six straight Unders due to the strength of their defense — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing at least four straight Unders. The Cyclones are allowing only 16.7 PPG and 280.8 total YPG. They rank 2nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 5th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive. They return home for Senior Night where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 PPG and outgaining them by +81.5 net YPG. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 home games after losing three of their last four contests. And while the Cyclones have allowed 57 and 76 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Texas Tech got outgained by 25 yards despite their 15-point victory. But the Red Raiders are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against a Big 12 rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Texas Tech will likely have to call on backup quarterback Tyler Shough to make his third start this season with Behren Morton questionable with an ankle injury. He will have to carry a defense that surrendered 525 yards last week to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have given up 35.7 PPG and 465.3 YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are winless in four contests while getting outscored by -10.5 net PPG. They only score 24.3 PPG on the road this season. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State will have the additional motivation of revenge after getting upset in Lubbock last season by a 41-38 score as a 12.5-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are still only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Cyclones. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). THE SITUATION: Baylor (6-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 upset loss at home to Kansas State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. TCU (10-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Longhorns last week but got stung by the Horned Frogs playing their best defensive game of the season. TCU held Texas to just 199 total yards and made quarterback Quinn Ewers look like a freshman (and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian as a consistent underachiever in big games). But this Horned Frogs' defense remains a concern. They had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before last week. They rank 113rd in Opponent Finishing Drive — and they are just 113th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They stay on the road where they are giving up 398.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Horned Frogs clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game in two weeks — but they still have tons of pressure on them since they control their fate to make the College Football Playoff. This is a prime letdown spot after the upset win against Texas. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. And while they held the Longhorns scoreless in the first half, they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Quarterback Max Duggan completed 19 of his 29 passes but for only 124 passing yards. TCU managed just 283 total yards of offense despite being on offense for 37:22 minutes of that game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not passing for more than 125 yards in their last contest. Duggan is playing through a calf injury that is impacting his mobility and completely taking away his scrambling abilities. Baylor’s three points and 103 rushing yards were both their lowest marks in those areas since 2020. The defense got caught unprepared for the Wildcats' passing attack after an injury forced Adrian Martinez out of the game early for Will Howard who offers Kansas State a passing threat (despite lacking Martinez’s mobility). Overall, it was just a very flat effort from this Baylor team on both sides of the football. But head coach Dave Aranda has been effective in getting his team ready to play after an underwhelming effort. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home at Waco for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.4 net PPG and outgaining them by +139.4 net YPG. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. And while they did not force a turnover last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. The Bears and quarterback Blake Shapen have been inconsistent this season. They have been upset three times this season by Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State last week. But they have pulled off upsets against Oklahoma and Iowa State. Shapen should play better after throwing two interceptions last week. His turnover-worthy plays are cut in half when he does not face pressure. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers given the suspect TCU pass rush — and the Bears rank 19th in the nation in pass blocking. Baylor also ranks 20th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate — and the Horned Frogs are just 50th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Bears have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. I thought they would get exposed last week — but we got Sarked. While it is foolish to chase losses, we don’t want to ignore good opportunities simply because of the previous week’s results either. This is a good spot for Baylor who is dangerous in the role of the underdog — so let’s attack. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). THE SITUATION: Tulane (8-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss at home to Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. SMU (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 41-23 win at South Florida as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane should still control their fate to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game if they win their final two games. They should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Green Wave did allow 468 total yards to the Knights on Saturday — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +16.5 Points-Per-Game and outgaining their guests by +113.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Tulane’s visitors are scoring only 18.7 PPG and generating 314.0 YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Head coach Willie Fritz is getting reliable play from quarterback Michael Pratt. Even in the loss to Central Florida, Pratt completed 23 of 39 passes for 236 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has 17 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. He leads an offense that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate. Tulane should have success against this Mustangs’ defense that ranks 117th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. SMU also ranks 119th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 77th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed overall. The Mustangs’ Achilles’ heel is their defense as they are allowing 32.6 PPG and 446.4 total YPG. The 23 points that the Bulls scored against them were the fewest points allowed this season — they had allowed at least 29 points in each of their previous nine contests. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two in a row against conference rivals. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game.  They have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after winning four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in SMU’s last 20 games in November, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane will be motivated to avenge a 55-26 loss at SMU last season as a 14-point favorite on October 21st. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (309) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-21 loss to Ohio as a 2-point underdog last Tuesday. Northern Illinois (3-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 24-21 upset victory at Western Michigan as a 1-point underdog as a 1-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Miami (OH) still has the opportunity to become bowl eligible if they win their remaining two games. An injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert has held this team back — but he played his best game since returning to the field last week by completing 20 of 26 passes for 244 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. The RedHawks were only on the field for 18:40 minutes last week with their defense getting torched for 362 passing yards and 556 total yards by the Bobcats. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up 375 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. And in their last 6 games after a point spread, the RedHawks have covered the point spread all 6 times. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Miami (OH) should play better on defense this week — they rank 17th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive. The Huskies run the ball on 60.3% of their snaps from center — but the RedHawks have a good run defense. Miami (OH) ranks 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have held four of their ten opponents to under 100 rushing yards. Northern Illinois registered their second victory against an FBS opponent last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a win on the road. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while they rushed for 220 yards in that contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois has injury issues at quarterback with the team using their third and fourth-string quarterbacks last week. In two starts this season, Evan Cremascoli has four interceptions while completing just 42% of his passes. Head coach Thomas Hammock called on Justin Lynch to quarterback the final winning drive — he ran for 83 yards with a touchdown in the game. But as a passer, Lynch is completing only 50% of his passes this season while averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Huskies are giving up 32.0 Points-Per-Game due to a pass defense that ranks 114th in the nation by giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. Gabbert should have a good game against this Northern Illinois team that has allowed 28 touchdown passes including at least one in each of the games they have played this season. The Huskies return home where they are just 1-3 this season while giving up 38.0 PPG and 418.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Northern Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home including their last four home contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 meetings against the Huskies. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (309) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (126) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (125). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-3) got upset in the second-straight week after a 30-21 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (8-1) has won five games in a row after a 31-28 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest got upset the previous at Louisville by a 48-21 score as a 3-point road favorite. Turnovers have crushed this team in the two losses — they have 11 giveaways and a -10 net turnover differential in the two upset losses. The Demon Deacons have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Returning home will help with the mistakes — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against ACC rivals. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after playing a conference opponent. The Tar Heels have an explosive offense that has gained at least 455 yards in five straight games. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. And in their last 7 games in November, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be motivated to avenge a 58-55 loss in Chapel Hill against North Carolina last year — and the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Winston Salem against the Demon Deacons. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (126) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-27 win at Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (9-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 34-24 win against Texas Tech as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas has lost three games this season — and they are still laying a touchdown against an unbeaten Horned Frogs team that is currently fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since 1979, there had been six teams with three or more losses who were listed as a favorite against a team with a 9-0 or better record — and none of those teams were laying more than a field goal. This game presents the fifth time in the College Football Playoff era that a top-five team was listed as an underdog against an opponent not ranked in the top ten. Why are the Longhorns favored? For starters, the laptops love them. They have played well in all their games, win or loss, including impressive performances in terms of efficiency against Alabama and Oklahoma. Their three losses were by a combined 11 points. They lead the nation by generating 7.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they are 7th in the FBS by scoring 3.2 Points-Per-Drive. They are led by running back Bijan Robinson who ran the ball 30 times for 209 yards last week against the Wildcats — and Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Longhorns generated 466 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while Texas gave up 329 passing yards to Kansas State, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. The Longhorns still have the better defense in this game — they have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their nine games this season (including the Crimson Tide). TCU sports a big-play offense that leads the nation with 13 touchdowns of 40 or more yards — but Texas has only allowed seven gains of 40 or more yards this season, ranking 3rd in the Big 12. The Longhorns also rank 9th in the nation in pass rush — and the Horned Frogs rank just 85th in the nation in pass blocking. After playing their last two games on the road, Texas returns home to Texas Memorial Stadium where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.6 net PPG. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range including five of these last six circumstances. TCU has been fortunate to play three opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their nine games after fourth quarter deficits. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games. They rank 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives and 60th in Points Allowed Per Drive. And while Texas is vulnerable to good pass rushes by ranking 114th in the nation in Pass Blocking, TCU is just 109th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They go back on the road where they are giving up 27.3 PPG and 448.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. And while they allowed 157 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Max Duggan has been quite efficient under center for this team, the senior suffered a calf injury two weeks ago in their game against West Virginia. In the last two weeks, Duggan has only rushed for 20 yards from designed running plays with his calf seeming to limit his mobility.

FINAL TAKE: TCU’s first-year head coach Sonny Dykes was notorious for the “Sonny swoons” in November in his previous stop at SMU. His Mustangs teams from 2019-2021 had a 21-3 straight-up record before November 1st but a 4-8 record after that date. With TCU controlling their destiny to the college football playoff, the pressure is on — and their bubble is at risk of bursting in this night game in Austin where ESPN College Game Day sets up shop this week. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (7-2) rebounded from their loss at Central Florida with a 20-10 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite last Saturday. East Carolina (6-3) has won three in a row after their 27-24 upset win at BYU as a 3-point underdog back on October 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati held the Midshipmen to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than three points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game —  and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bearcats have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They generated 6.64 Yards-Per-Play against Navy — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last contest. Cincinnati is 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG and an average net yardage differential of +117.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are scoring 39.0 PPG at home with a 423.8 net YPG mark. Senior quarterback Ben Bryant completed 25 of 35 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The former backup to Desmond Ridder who transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for a year before returning to the Bearcats is finding his rhythm running the offense. He threw for 298 yards in the loss to the Knights two weeks ago. Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. East Carolina has pulled off two straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after a win on the road including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five circumstances. They did rush for 244 yards against the Cougars last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Pirates have generated 6.74 YPP and 7.31 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. East Carolina has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games. They face a challenge from this Bearcats pass defense that ranks 20th in the nation in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Havoc Rate while leading the American Athletic Conference in sacks. The Pirates stay on the road where they are allowing 411.3 YPG. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Furthermore, the Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a Friday night.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Bearcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at Cincinnati. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-20 victory in Jacksonville against Florida as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (8-0) is undefeated this season after their 44-6 win against Kentucky as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the third meeting between the Associated Press number one and number two ranked teams in a regular season game since 2006. Only twice previously has the AP’s second-ranked team been an underdog of more than seven points. Tennessee is ranked second in the AP poll given their dynamic offense that Alabama was not able to slow down. But the Volunteers only beat a Gators team that Georgia just decimated by a 38-33 score. Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Pittsburgh team on the road earlier in the season. Now after signature wins at home against Florida and Alabama, the Volunteers look to continue their breakout season after not enjoying a ten-win season for over a decade. It may be difficult for this team to avoid getting their bubble burst now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And while they held the Wildcats to just 98 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in seven of their eight games this season - but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They go back on the road for just the third time this season where they have not been as dynamic on offense. Their 37.0 Points-Per-Game and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game in their two road games is impressive — but it is still -12.4 PPG and -93.6 YPG below their season averages. The canary in the coal mine may be the 27 points they were held to at Pittsburgh against the Pat Narduzzi-coached Panthers defense (that is not elite this season). Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have a good front seven that defends the run well and gets pressure on the quarterback. But the weakest unit in this game will be the Tennessee secondary which is more vulnerable after the season-ending injury to senior cornerback Warren Burrell. The Volunteers give up 301 passing YPG — and they rank 87th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They rank 55th in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating. They are 126th in the nation by allowing 33 pass plays of 10 or more yards. They also rank 80th in Yards Allowed Per Drive. They are giving up 385.5 YPG when on the road. Now they play the defending national champions who lead the nation's Passing Success Rate on both standard downs and passing downs. Led by sixth-year senior Stetson Bennett at quarterback, the Bulldogs lead the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they are 5th in the nation in Points-Per-Drive. Georgia also leads the nation by scoring on 97.87% of their drives inside the red zone. Bennett has the best tight end duo at his disposal in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington who have combined for 50 receptions and 879 yards. The Bulldogs have an emerging star at running back as well in sophomore Dijon Edwards who has averaged 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry with six touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Bulldogs have scored at least 39 points in six of their eight games. Georgia has not allowed more than 22 points in a game this season — and they have held five of their opponents to 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have the talent in the secondary to slow down the Volunteers' passing attack. Kelee Ringo is an elite man-to-man cover cornerback. Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette often get the man-to-man assignments next to Ringo — and they have combined to allow only 12 receptions on 30 pass attempts with two interceptions. Furthermore, slot cornerback Javon Bullard and free safety Christopher Smith are the top-two graded defensive backs in man-to-man coverage skills with neither missing a tackle in the over 250 snaps they have played this season. Overall, Georgia is second in the nation by allowing 10.5 PPG — and they are giving up only 262.3 YPG. The sack rate is not nearly as high as it was last season — but defensive tackle Jalen Carter has played through injuries this season and may be ready to break out. Carter was widely considered the best player on the Bulldogs' defense last season. Georgia has looked vulnerable at times this year with listless efforts against Missouri and Kent State — but don’t forget the thorough 49-3 shellacking they gave Oregon to begin the season. I suspect the Bulldogs were simply flat in the underwhelming efforts earlier in the year. But they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread in as the favorite. And while they gained 555 total yards against the Gators, they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. They host this game at Sanford Stadium where they have won all four of their games by an average winning margin of +34.3 PPG. The Bulldogs' defense holds their guests to just 8.0 PPG and 204.5 YPG at home — and three of their four visitors were held to 10 points or less. They are also scoring 42.3 PPG and averaging 522.0 YPG at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Georgia ceiling is higher than what this Tennessee team is capable of — as demonstrated by their wins against Oregon this season as well as their double-digit victories against Michigan and Alabama in the playoffs last year. The Bulldogs crushed the Volunteers in Knoxville last year by a 41-17 score in a game where they registered six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against Georgia. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after a 24-10 loss at Louisville as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (6-1) is on a three-game winning streak after their 38-35 win at Duke as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels return to action after their bye week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win against an ACC rival. North Carolina is 6th in the nation in Yards-Per-Play on offense after generating 536 total yards against the Blue Devils. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Tar Heels have averaged 7.4 and 6.6 YPP in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. But the problem with this team is their defense that allows 476.6 Yards-Per-Game. North Carolina ranks 120th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed and 110th in Opponent Pass Success Allowed. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh outgained the Cardinals last week by a 326 to 312 yardage margin but was done-in by a 59-yard fumble recovery defensive touchdown along with a -3 net turnover margin. But Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw two interceptions and only generated 158 yards in the air — but the Panthers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Slovis has the opportunity to redeem himself against this Tar Heels pass defense that has allowed four of their six opponents to gain at least 245 yards in the air. Pittsburgh also has one of the best running backs in the country in senior Israel Abanikanda who has 959 rushing yards on 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. North Carolina allows opposing rushers to average 187 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Pat Narduzzi has an outstanding pass defense that should slow down the Tar Heels freshman quarterback Drake Mayo and this potent North Carolina passing attack. The Panthers rank 9th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate and 4th in the FBS in Opponent Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt. They gained experience facing an up-tempo offense when they played Tennessee — and they held the Volunteers to only three points in the second half in that game. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-13 upset loss at East Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (6-1) has won six in a row after their 29-27 win at SMU last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Cbentral Florida was done-in by a -4 net turnover margin against the Pirates. They should bounce back in this critical game which will give the winner the driver’s seat to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. The Knights have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest. Central Florida has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they generate 242.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 6th in the nation. Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee offers head coach Gus Malzahn the dual-threat capability that he prefers in his quarterback — he is 3rd in the nation for quarterbacks by averaging 72.3 rushing yards per game. The Bearcats have struggled against mobile quarterbacks — Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson rushed for 62 yards against them and South Florida’s Gerry Bohanan gained 117 yards against them on the ground. Plumlee has used his legs to generate 35 first downs this season. He has also averaged 328 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last three games. The Knights also bring in a stout defense against the run that ranks 11th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This defense leads the nation in Red Zone defense by allowing only 15 scores in the 26 Red Zone trips by their opponents. UCF hosts this game at the Bounce House where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. But senior quarterback Ben Bryant is beginning to regress as the season moves forward. The longtime backup to Desmond Ridder has only four touchdown passes in his last three games with three interceptions. They stay on the road this week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October — and the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Central Florida ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (3-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-16 win at Temple as a 14-point favorite last Friday. SMU (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after a narrow 29-27 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINT(S): Tulsa has been a very reliable underdog under head coach Philip Montgomery. Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog with four upset victories during that stretch — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games when getting the points. This team needs wins to become bowl eligible so this is a critical game for them this afternoon. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Led by Davis Brin at quarterback, the Golden Hurricane generated 454 yards of offense against the Owls — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. He has 16 touchdown passes this season while averaging 9.0 yards per completion.  Tulsa ranks 12th in the nation in Finishing Drives. They return home where they are scoring 37.7 Points-Per-Game while gaining 448 Yards-Per-Game — they are outscoring their guests by +10 PPG and outgaining them by +98.0 YPG. Tulsa is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. The Golden Hurricane are tough to pass against. They rank 21st in the nation by allowing only 165 passing YPG. They rank 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate — and their opponent completion percentage rate of 53% is 11th best in the FBS. SMU may be without Tanner Mordecai who left last week’s game against the Bearcats with an undisclosed injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, we are in great shape since the Mustangs will have to turn to redshirt freshman Preston Stone under center. He completed only 6 of 15 passes for 74 yards in relief last week. SMU only gained 279 yards against Cincinnati while getting outgained by -100 net yards. Even if Mordecai plays and completes the game, the Mustangs are in a tough spot this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a narrow loss by six points or less. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ defense is vulnerable —  they are giving up 449 YPG on the road. They rank 98th in the nation by giving up 327 passing YPG. They also struggle against the run with opposing rushers generating 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 123rd in the FBS by giving up 205 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Golden Hurricane. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). THE SITUATION: California (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 20-13 upset loss at Colorado in overtime as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-39 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California has now lost three times to an opponent that was 0-5 or worse on the season under head coach Justin Wilcox — and they scored only 7.7 Points-Per-Game in those embarrassing losses. In 2018, the Golden Bears responded with a 42-point win at Oregon State. Last year, they responded with a 30-point win at Stanford. Cal has simply not been a reliable favorite under Wilcox — but they have been money in the underdog role. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have pulled off 13 upsets in those contests. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting seven or more points including in their 24-17 loss at Notre Dame as a 13.5-point dog earlier this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home as an underdog getting seven or more points. Cal should play better tonight to redeem themselves from their bad loss at Colorado inspired by playing under an interim head coach. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 7 games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. The Golden Bears have won all three of their games at home this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Their offense wakes up when playing at home where they are scoring 34.3 PPG and generating 461.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +50.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They gained 595 total yards against the Wildcats last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly fixed the offensive woes for the Huskies in the last few years — and bringing in transfer quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. was a great move. Washington is scoring 42.1 PPG — but they now face a Cal defense that ranks 25th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. But the problem for the Huskies now is the complete collapse of what was once a consistently strong defense. Losing three players to the NFL from last year hurt — but this unit ranks 115th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate and 102nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Washington goes back on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are winless this season with two losses by more than seven points. They have allowed their home hosts to score 42.5 PPG and generate 448.0 YPG against them. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wilcox will remind his team that they lost to the Huskies on the road last season by a 31-24 score. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in conference play. 25* CFB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 39-10 upset loss to Northern Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 25-21 win against Connecticut as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan threw a five-yard interception that the Huskies returned for a touchdown in the opening score of the game — and it was all downhill from there. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin in the game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 24 o their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss at home to a Mid-American Conference rival. They only gained 29 rushing yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards. Now they play a Cardinals team that is allowing 190 rushing yards per game. The Eagles go back on the road where they have already upset Arizona State and Western Michigan this season. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They gained 213 yards on the ground against the Huskies — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. They only gained 147 yards in the air — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not passing for over 170 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (170) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (169). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 42-32 upset loss at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (6-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 30-14 win against Washington State as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ken Whittingham certainly had an attentive group of players this week after the upset loss to the Bruins where they surrendered 502 total yards. Whittingham claimed his team got out-toughed by UCLA — so expect a bruising response by this team against the Trojans.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 49-0 loss to Texas in the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog in the Red River Rivalry last Saturday. Kansas (5-1) lost their first game of the season last week in a 38-31 loss to TCU as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Oklahoma defense has been atrocious the last three weeks by giving up 145 combined points in losses to Kansas State, TCU, and then the Longhorns. But the Sooners are still laying up to 10 points in this game? It looks very easy to take the upstart Jayhawks — but I smell a trap. Oklahoma expects to get Dillon Gabriel back at quarterback for this game coming back from the concussion protocol — he has practiced all week and just needs to continue to not show lingering symptoms. The Sooners have been outscored by a 70-7 margin without Gabriel — getting him back will help both sides of the ball since the offense will be able to sustain long drives. Oklahoma was absolutely humiliated last week and head coach Brent Venables is being torched in the national media. But he did not forget how to coach defense after serving for years as the defensive coordinator at Clemson. I expect to see some improvement even if the six transfers the team brought in on that side of the ball have not worked out. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while Oklahoma only gained 195 yards last week without Gabriel, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Gabriel ranks 23rd in the nation in Total QBR this season. He has 11 touchdown passes and another eight “Big Time Throws” as graded by Pro Football Focus with zero interceptions nor turnover-worthy plays. He is complemented by a rushing attack that ranks top-ten in Expected Points Added per play. The Sooners return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 19 points. Kansas is likely without their starting quarterback Jason Daniels who suffered a shoulder injury last week that was described as likely season-ending. There has been talk that he could still play this week — but his effectiveness would be very much in doubt. Backup Jason Dean was solid in relief last week —  but he had only six touchdown passes and six interceptions as the starter last year which is one of the reasons why he lost the starting job to Daniels. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Kansas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 37 or more points. The Jayhawks’ defense remains the weak link under head coach Lance Leipold. In their two games on the road, Kansas has allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game and 473.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher. This team is also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: This Oklahoma team was considered one of the top-five teams in the country just a month ago. While those accolades were not justified, this team is not as bad as how they have looked in their last three games. Expect a spirited “circle the wagons” effort from them against a Kansas team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Norman. 10* CFB Kansas-Oklahoma ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (3-3) has lost two straight games after their 33-16 loss at home to San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. New Mexico (2-3) has lost two in a row with their 31-20 loss at UNLV as a 14-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Craig Bohl will have Wyoming ready to play tonight following the loss to the Spartans. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Wyoming has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they allowed 456 total yards to San Jose State, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Bohl is in a rebuild this season after losing 12 players in the transfer portal. But he has built a consistent program in his nine seasons in Laramie — and they have two solid victories against Air Force and Tulsa this season. New Mexico has one of the worst offenses in the nation once again this year after ranking 130th last year by scoring just 12.2 Points-Per-Game and 234.9 total Yards-Per-Game. This year, the Lobos are scoring 20.4 PPG and averaging 244.8 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss. They are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Senior quarterback Miles Kendrick completed 13 of 25 passes for only 163 yards — and New Mexico gained only 277 total yards in the game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after not passing for more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. They return home where they are only generating 283.6 total YPG — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home. One of their home victories this season was against Maine, an FCS opponent. They did not gain 300 total yards in their home games against Boise State or UTEP.

FINAL TAKE: Bohl will use the memory of their 14-3 upset loss at home to the Lobos last season as a 19.5-point underdog on October 23rd. But New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in October — and they are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games against conference opponents. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-20 loss at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Kent State (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win in overtime against Ohio as a 13-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) outgained the Bulls last week by a 359 to 278 yardage margin but could not pull out the game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The team is dealing with the likely season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert last month, but they are getting solid play from Aveon Smith under center. He completed 14 of 26 for 119 yards last week — but his biggest contributions were with his legs as he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 142 yards on twelve carries. Miami (OH) returns home to play just their second game in front of their home fans all season. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Kent State comes off a huge offensive performance where they gained 736 total yards. Quarterback Collin Schlee completed 24 of 37 passes for 398 yards in the victory last week — but the Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 passing yards in their last game. And while they gained 7.67 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Kent State has won both their games at home — but they are winless in their three games on the road while getting outscored by -24.0 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes are scoring only 15.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 305.7 YPG. They have allowed their three home hosts to generate 495.0 total YPG. Granted, playing at Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia is a brutal non-conference schedule — but Kent State’s season stats are propped by a 63-10 win at home against Long Island. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) will be motivated to avenge a 48-47 loss at Kent State last year in a pick ‘em contest. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the RedHawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at Miami (OH). 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 35-24 loss to Ole Miss as a 21-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati (3-1) has won three in a row after their 45-24 win against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa almost pulled the upset against a quality SEC opponent — they were only outgained by a 462 to 457 yardage margin to the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have a gunslinger under center in quarterback Davis Brin who completed 7 of 13 passes for 112 yards sharing time last week. The Bearcats can be passed on — they rank 93rd in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. Tulsa stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. After losing at Arkansas, Cincinnati has padded their statistics with an easy schedule that has included Miami (OH), Kennesaw State, and then the Hoosiers last week. The Bearcats have averaged 329.3 passing Yards-Per-Game in those three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a three-game stretch. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane has been a point-spread underdog 15 times. They have pulled off the upset victory in four of those games while covering the point spread in 13 of those 15 situations — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games as a dog. Those two-point spread losses were coin flip losses as well: They lost to Mississippi State in their bowl game in 2020 by two points as a 1-point dog and they lost to Tulane in 2019 by 12 points as a 10-point underdog. They have been getting +16, +13.5, and +22.5 points (last season) against Cincinnati in their last three meetings against them — but they have lost by just 3, 11, and then 8 points respectively in those games after a 28-20 loss in their house last year. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Tulsa. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). THE SITUATION: Toledo (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at San Diego State as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Central Michigan (1-3) looks to rebound from a 33-14 loss at Penn State as a 28-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo returns home after a tough two-game stretch on the road that started with a trip to Columbus to play Ohio State. The Rockets outgained the Aztecs by a 376 to 282 yardage margin but still managed to lose the game. Toledo has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a two-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games on the road. They are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. While the Buckeyes embarrassed them by scoring 77 points, the Rockets have held their three other opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Mid-American Conference opponents. Central Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss. They only gained 88 yards on the ground against the Nittany Lions — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not rushing for more than 100 yards in their last contest. The Chippewas’ offense may be dependent on the arm of quarterback Daniel Richardson but he is completing only 57.6% of his passes while averaging just 6.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 32.2 PPG — and they rank 84th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October under head coach Jim McElwain.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo should be fired up for this game after getting upset in Muskegon last year by a 26-23 score as a 5-point road favorite against Central Michigan on October 16th last season. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Rockets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (3-1) looks to rebound from their 23-21 loss to Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog in Dallas last Saturday. Alabama (4-0) comes off a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt as a 40.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has been vulnerable in true road games as of late. Head coach Nick Saban’s team has only one victory by more than a field in their last five games played in a hostile environment which includes their 20-19 win at Texas earlier this season as a three-touchdown favorite. Two of those narrow victories were the result of a late Crimson Tide score despite them being on average an 18.5-point road favorite in those games. Saban’s decisive edge in recruiting over the last decade has taken a step back with the rise of Georgia competing for those players and now the new era of NILs. This year’s team does not have the same elite talent at wide receiver as they have enjoyed in the past — and the offensive line is a work in progress. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. They went into halftime with a 31-3 lead over the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their previous game. They rushed for 228 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tide has 118 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 42 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 road games when favored by 14.5-21 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Arkansas outgained the Aggies last week by a 415 to 343 yardage margin but an 82-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for Texas A&M made the difference in the game. The Razorbacks also fumbled on the Aggies’ goal-line to blow a touchdown opportunity. They had a 70% post-game win probability so the result was a major disappointment for head coach Sam Pittman’s team. But there is nothing like the opportunity to upset Alabama to make things right again. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks have the skill players on offense that can move the ball against the Crimson Tide defense. Running back Raheim Sanders is averaging 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry behind a big offensive and experienced offensive line — and he is averaging 3.9 yards after contact. Junior quarterback K.J. Jefferson is a dual threat who led the team to a 9-4 record last year with six wins against bowl teams. The defense has already registered 20 sacks — and they rank fourth in the nation in Passing Downs Sack Rate. This is an area where Alabama is vulnerable as they rank 87th in the FBS in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will be confident in this game after only losing by a 42-35 score as a 20.5-point underdog last year against Alabama in Tallahassee. The Razorbacks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SEC opponents. 10* CFB Alabama-Arkansas CBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 27-10 upset loss at UTEP as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday. San Diego State (2-2) comes off a 17-14 upset win at home against Toledo as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINT: Boise State head coach Andy Avalos fired his offensive coordinator Tim Plough after that loss to the Miners with the offense only generating 177 yards of offense. Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal after the game as well looking for a new school to play for while not burning a year of eligibility by playing a fifth game this season. Frankly, both moves may be addition by subtraction. Avalos brought in former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter (1998-2000) as his new offensive coordinator. Koetter is a professional offensive coach with extensive NFL as an offensive coordinator and three years as the head coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He should have an immediate impact on streamlining the offense from the up-tempo Air Raid system Plough had installed last season. The quarterback will be 6’6 freshman Taylor Green who completed 19 of 27 passes for 155 yards earlier this season against Oregon State. Expect an inspired effort from this Boise State team that got embarrassed last week. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. Additionally, the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They are also 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. San Diego State got outgained by a 376 to 282 margin against the Rockets last week — but they took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin to pull off the upset. The Aztecs forced four turnovers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last contest. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister only passed for 65 yards last week, going 13 of 24. He is averaging just 3.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he has only 230 passing yards for the entire season. The Aztecs are dead last 131st in the nation in Passing Success Rate — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for at least 170 yards in their last game. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State pulled off a 27-16 upset win at home as a 3-point underdog against the Broncos last season on November 26th — so Boise State will be looking for revenge. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games at home when favored by up to seven points. 10* CFB San Diego State-Boise State FS1-TV Special with Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (3-0) has won their first three games this season with their 68-28 win against Montana State as a 17.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (3-0) has won their first three games this year after their 45-17 win against Fresno State as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on Fresno State last week — and they were in play to cover the point spread as a double-digit dog before their NFL-bound quarterback, Jake Haener, got injured and left the game about halfway through the contest. I still consider the Trojans prime-fade territory with all the hype being placed on this team. USC is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they rushed for 233 yards in that game, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Pac-12 play. This will be their toughest test of the season playing on the road in a tough environment against the Beavers. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Behind quarterback Chance Nolan, the Beavers have a high-powered offense of their own that should score plenty of points against a defense that allowed Stanford to put up 28 points and 441 total yards against it. Oregon State is scoring 45.7 PPG while putting up at least 34 points in all three of their games — including a victory against Boise State. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight contests. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home. Additionally, Oregon State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State upset USC last year by a 45-27 score as a 10.5-point underdog in the Coliseum. Now the Trojans travel to Corvallis where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against the Beavers. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 38-31 win at home against West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite on September 1st. Tennessee (1-0) defeated Ball State by 59-10 score as a 37-point favorite two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Mountaineers in that Thursday night game who covered the point spread by a half-point — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. The encouraging development for Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was the play of senior quarterback Kedon Slovis. The transfer from USC completed 16 of 24 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to outplay J.T. Daniels, the quarterback he replaced for the Trojans when both were in that program. The Panthers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Pitt returns 15 starters from the team that finished 11-3 and won the ACC championship. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee was dominant on offense last week by gaining 569 total yards against an overmatched Cardinals defense. But the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory under second-year head coach Josh Heupel. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. And while Tennessee held Ball State to just 343 total yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Volunteers' defense will likely remain the downfall of this team after they ranked 99th in the nation last year by allowing 421.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They did not register a sack last week — and they missed 11 tackles. Tennessee was flat-track bullies last year that beat up on lesser teams before shrinking against better competition. They scored 53 Points-Per-Game while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against teams outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top-40 SP+ analytics system — but those numbers dropped to 29 PPG and 6.2 YPP against teams inside the SP+ top-40. While they held their first seven opponents to 22.9 PPG and 4.9 YPP, those defensive numbers exploded to them giving up 39.3 PPG and 6.0 YPP in their last six games when they started playing quality SEC opponents. They lost four of their five games last year against ranked opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year with Pitt winning on the road in Knoxville by a 41-34 score. It was that loss that prompted Heupel to make a change at quarterback with Hendon Hooker taking over for Joe Milton — but that angle may be overrated in this rematch since Hooker played for much of that game. This will be a clash of styles between the fast-tempo of the Volunteers' offense facing the ball control slog that the Panthers want to play. Pitt ran the ball on 61% of their plays last week — and this style may frustrate Tennessee who is used to getting their way. The laptops tend to overvalue the Volunteers given their blowout victories against lesser teams in which they play fast and do not take their foot off the accelerator. The Panthers have six All-ACC selections back on defense — and the Pitt defense generated eight tackles-for-loss last week. 10* CFB Tennessee-Pittsburgh ABC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) returns 13 starters from the 12-2 team that won the Conference USA title before losing to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl by a 38-24 score. Houston (0-0) has 11 starters back from their 12-2 team that lost to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game before beating Auburn by a 17-13 score in the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA returns eight starters on offense from the unit that finished 11th in the nation by scoring 36.9 Points-Per-Game. Sixth-year super senior Frank Harris is still under center — and he has his top four targets return in the passing game. Harris threw for 27 touchdowns last year while averaging 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The dual-threat QB added 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground with 24 runs of more than 10 yards. The Roadrunners do lose running back Sincere McCormick to the NFL — but head coach Jeff Traylor brought in Trelon Smith from Arkansas as a transfer who has a career 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry mark. He will run behind an offensive line that has four returning starters and 121 combined starts of experience. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home at the Alamodome — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting up to seven points. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Houston comes off an impressive season — but they benefited from playing the 67th hardest schedule in the nation. Senior Clayton Thune returns at quarterback for a team that scored 35.9 PPG — but the Cougars ranked just 58th in the nation by generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play and they only ranked 68th in Success Rate on offense. Houston only averaged 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground — and they were just 115th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. The defense under head coach Dana Holgorsen was quite good as they ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 301.1 total YPG — but this unit is going to take a step or two back. The Cougars lost two All-AAC players on the defensive line in Logan Hall and David Anehih — and the secondary must replace their starting cornerback duo.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 road games when favored by up to 7 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Roadrunners are a talented and dangerous home dog who would love to knock off the Cougars. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (0-0) returns 17 starters from a team that finished 6-7 last year after a 30-17 loss to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Virginia Tech (0-0) has 11 starters back from their team that also finished 6-7 after a 54-10 loss to Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a sneaky hard game for the Hokies who begin the tenure of first-year head coach Brent Pry. The defensive coordinator for Penn State for the last 11 seasons is considered a genius on that side of the ball — but not only will the assistant coach for more than 30 seasons now have the challenge of being the head coach, but he will also no longer have blue-chip recruits on defense to implement his game plans. Recruiting declined significantly for this program under head coach Justin Fuente who was let go before completing his sixth year with the program. Virginia Tech had below .500 season in three of the last four seasons. Seven starters return on defense but this is a major rebuild for Pry and defensive coordinator Chris Marve from a unit that ranked 76th in the nation by allowing 393.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Long gone are the days of Bud Foster with his “lunch pail defense” identity implanted on the defensive unit. The offense was bleak last season with the Hokies scoring only 23.7 PPG. Pry brought in third-year sophomore Grant Wells as a transfer from Marshall to run the offense — but while he demonstrated promise as a freshman with his strong arm, he is too loose with the football with 22 interceptions in his career including 13 last year. Wells will be throwing to a revamped group of receivers after 103 of the 173 catches last year came from players that are no longer on the team including do-it-all running back Raheem Blackshear. It looks like Pry wants the offense to become a run-first attack — and he poached Wisconsin offensive line coach Joe Rudolph to coach the offensive line — but it will take time to build this offense into something like how the Badgers operate. In the meantime, Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. They will face a feisty and confident opponent in Old Dominion. After not playing in 2020 because of the pandemic, the Monarchs understandably started slowly under first-year head coach Ricky Rahne. But the team kept fighting and won five of their last six games after Rahne made a change at quarterback by turning to sophomore Hayden Wolff. After only averaging 19 PPG and 300.4 total YPG in their first five games, Old Dominion scored 28.1 PPG and generated 399.7 total YPG in their seven contests. Junior running back Blake Watson up his rushing average from 84.8 rushing YPG to 111.7 rushing YPG after Wolff took over as the starting quarterback. Ten starters are back on offense for this team including four on the offensive line. Five of the top six receivers are back as well. On defense, five of the top six tacklers are back from a group that held their final six opponents to 22 PPG. All four starters return on the defensive line from a group that ranked 29th in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 11th in opponent Rush Explosiveness. The Monarchs also ranked 16th in the nation by giving up just 41 plays of 20 or more yards. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Pry and Rahne coached together at Penn State when Rahne was an offensive coordinator in Happy Valley from 2018-2019. While there will be familiarity between these two coaches, Rahne has the edge when it comes to knowing his players. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC — and the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside their conference (as they enter the Sun Belt from Conference USA this season). 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Old Dominion ESPNU Special with the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (0-0) returns 11 starters from the team that finished 6-7 after an 18-6 loss to Minnesota in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) has 15 starters return from their group that finished 11-3 after a 31-21 loss to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat in his fourth season in Morgantown — but he made two significant moves for the offensive side of the ball to improve a unit that ranked 87th in the FBS last season by allowing 371.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Brown lured offensive coordinator Graham Harrell to install his Air Raid offense after he was let go from USC when they brought in Lincoln Riley. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football (and perhaps the brains behind the Kliff Kingsbury offenses at Texas Tech). But an even bigger get was the acquisition of quarterback J.T. Daniels from Georgia. I think Daniels is a credible Long Shot Bet to win the Heisman Trophy (200-1 odds at the Westgate earlier this week). He graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back — and in his sophomore season with Harrell in his first year at USC as the offensive coordinator, he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the 2019 season. That injury cost him the starting job — so he entered the transfer portal and chose Georgia. But coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. When the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many forget that Daniels began last season as the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. He has three returning starters at wide receiver and a potential rising star in sophomore Kaden Prather who had a big spring. Junior Tony Mathis, Jr. is back at running back after peaching at the end of last season. All five starters return on the offensive line. Defense has been the calling card for Brown’s teams at West Virginia. After finishing fourth in the nation in total defense in 2020, the Mountaineers held their opponents to 350.1 total YPG, ranking 37th in the nation. This unit was 12th in the nation by allowing just 3.78 points per opponent’s quality possession. Four starters return — but Brown brought in seven FBS transfers and three junior college players to bolster the unit in this critical season. Six of the top seven players on the depth chart return on their defensive line which should help them tonight against a Panthers team that will likely return to focusing on their ground game. Pittsburgh is learning to live life without Kenny Pickett under center after he has been their starting quarterback for the last five seasons. Not only did he leave for the NFL, but offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left to become the OC at Nebraska. The Panthers were third in the nation by scoring 41.4 PPG — but without Whipple to challenge head coach Pat Narduzzi to embrace some of the principles of modern football, Pitt may return to “three yards and a cloud of dust”. Given that Narduzzi replaced Whipple with Boston College offensive coordinator and the former OC for Jeff Fisher for the St. Louis Rams, the successful passing attack that the Panthers had last year may be history. Remember, Pitt averaged only 21.2 PPG just two seasons ago. Ironically, Narduzzi recruited Kedon Slovis to transfer over to take over under center from USC — and it was Slovis who took the job away from Daniels in 2019 after his early season-ending injury. Slovis struggled last year during the Trojans’ 4-8 season — he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart — and he was not in the team’s plans when Riley brought his star sophomore quarterback with him from Oklahoma, Caleb Williams. The Panthers return seven on defense — but they may have lost two much star power from last year’s unit. The decision of former captain Cam Bright to transfer to Washington may be telling. The linebacker led a stout front seven — but this defense too often got burned when playing too aggressively. They ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 264.3 passing YPG — a bright sign for Daniels to open his season on a strong note. Pitt has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The X-factor tonight is Harrell who not only has a previous history coaching Daniels — but he has been Slovis’ offensive coordinator for the entirety of his collegiate career. He will have the insight to help the Mountaineers’ defense. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB West Virginia-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a 7-point underdog against a Big 12 rival. The Bears have relied on redshirt freshman Blake Shapen at quarterback in the last two games due to the hamstring injury suffered by incumbent starter Gerry Bohanon. But while Shapen is dealing with a shoulder injury now, Bohanan is expected to play which gives Baylor more of a running threat under center as well as the quarterback who engineered their upsets of Oklahoma and Kansas State in November along with Iowa State in October. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Mississippi got outgained by Mississippi State five weeks ago by a 420-88 yardage margin while losing the first down battle, 30-23. They won that game by thwarting the Bulldogs in the red zone. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog. Ole Miss has won all four of their games in their winning streak by double-digits — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two in a row by 10 or more points against conference rivals. The Rebels have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games played after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) looks to bounce-back from their 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 4th. Kentucky (9-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 52-21 upset victory at Louisville as a 3-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa will have something to prove to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the ugly loss to the Wolverines four weeks ago. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 35 points to a Big Ten rival in their last game. Iowa is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes should respond with a strong effort on defense after not allowing more than 27 points all season before the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa ranks 12th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed Per Play — and they only allowed 19.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Hawkeyes thrive when they force turnovers — they had a +22 net turnover margin to begin the season which fueled their 6-0 start. They forced multiple turnovers in eight games and ended the season with a +14 net turnover margin. They now face a Wildcats team prone to turning the ball over. Kentucky has a -13 net turnover margin after playing five games where they turned the ball over at least three times. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by at least 14 points. Kentucky overwhelmed Louisville by controlling the clock for 35:04 minutes and generating 29 first downs. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing a game where they had at least 24 first downs and were on offense for at least 34 minutes. Kentucky has scored 108 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight contests. They will be without their second wideout target in Josh Ali who is out with an injury. But the Wildcats pass defense is vulnerable as they rank 110th in Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games under head coach Kirk Ferentz. 10* CFB Kentucky-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Penn State (7-5) has dropped two of their last three games after their 30-27 upset loss at Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State is dealing with a handful of opt-outs on both sides of the ball — but this bowl game is the first opportunity for head coach James Franklin to begin working for next season after being on the shortlist for several of the high-profile head coaching jobs last month. This will be a motivated team, particularly on defense with new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz already coaching his first game after he was let go as the Miami (FL) head coach. Franklin recruits well — the cupboard is not bare despite the opt-outs. And this is a team that lost four games by one scoring possession including a four-point loss to Michigan and a field goal loss at Iowa. The Nittany Lions also endured a heartbreaking loss to Illinois in nine overtimes — so this could easily be a nine or ten-win team. They should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games. Penn State only gained 61 yards on the ground against the Spartans — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. Franklin will have the best quarterback on the field in this game in junior Sean Clifford who completed 23 of 34 throws for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Michigan State. He has blossomed this season under first-year offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich with 20 Big Time Throws which were more than what he had accomplished in his previous two seasons as the Penn State starting quarterback. It is the defense that is the stronger unit for this team. The Nittany Lions ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 16.8 Points-Per-Game — they are in the top-38 nationally in both run and pass defense. Arkansas is just 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Razorbacks are dealing with several opt-outs as well including their top wide receiver Treylon Burks and defensive lineman Tre Williams who is in trouble with Johnny Law after getting arrested for DUI. The loss of Burks is troublesome since no other wide receiver on the team had more than 33 targets this season. Arkansas does lean heavily on the run as they ran the ball 64% of the time this season — but they will be facing a stout Penn State defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Razorbacks have allowed their last three opponents to 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Arkansas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas is 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored on a neutral field. Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Arkansas-Penn State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia did not need to beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship since their spot in the college football playoff was assured with their undefeated record at the time. Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs coaching staff likely saved some of their tricks for the playoffs and a possible rematch with Alabama in a potential National Championship Game. The 17-point loss with the defense surrendering 536 total yards should have ensured that Smart had a captive audience in practice in preparation for this game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. The encouraging aspect of that setback was the play of quarterback Stetson Bennett who completed 29 of 48 passes for 340 yards with three touchdown passes against the Alabama defense. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Georgia had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Bulldogs’ defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262) in the Las Vegas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-4) won their third game in their last four games after their 38-15 win against Arizona as a 20-point favorite on November 27th. Wisconsin (8-4) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 23-13 upset loss at Minnesota as a 7-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: There has been a COVID outbreak with the Badgers team — and I still cannot get credible information regarding the extent of this situation. So, it is prudent to assume that key Wisconsin is not impacted (and so I am not upgrading the rating of this play). Regardless of that, this is a letdown spot for the Badgers after they blew their golden opportunity to play for a Big Ten championship if they would have just taken care of business against the Golden Gophers. Motivation is a question in a second-tier bowl game. As it is, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. The Badgers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. Scoring has been a persistent problem for this team as they averaged only 25.8 Points-Per-Game this season. They scored no more than 20 points five times. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz was supposed to raise the level of play on offense for this program as their most decorated incoming recruit at quarterback two years ago — prompting Jack Coan to transfer to Notre Dame. But Wisconsin ranks 116th in the nation in Pass Success Rate and 123rd in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring no more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 14 points in their last game. The laptops have loved Wisconsin all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Arizona State had high expectations this season but was a disappointment with four losses. The down point of the year was two nightmare halves of football where they were outscored by Utah and Washington State by a 56-7 margin. But a bowl game offers this team an opportunity to make some amends to underachieving relative to their preseason hype. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They have opt-outs at running back, wide receiver, and in their back-seven on defense. Those were all positions that were considered areas of depth going back to August — so this game offers opportunities to those players who did not get as much playing time as they hoped. Head coach Herm Edwards is recruiting well for this program. They are led by a third-year starting quarterback in Jayden Daniels — and he is supported by an offensive line that led the nation in Line Yards and helped them rank seventh in the nation in Rush Success Rate. The Sun Devils have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has been shaky as a favorite — but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258) in the Music City Bowl. THE SITUATION: Purdue (8-4) is on a two-game winning streak after their 44-7 victory against Indiana as an 18.5-point favorite on November 27th. Tennessee (7-5) has won two in a row after their 45-21 victory against Vanderbilt as a 33-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue has a gunslinger quarterback and a stout defense -- this combo should keep them competitive in this bowl game. Aidan O’Connell completed 73.5% of his passes for 3178 yards with 28 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions while averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last four games, O’Connell completed 77% of his passes with a 407 passing YPG average with 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He will be without two of his favorite targets in David Bell and Milton Wright. Bell is opting out to prepare for the NFL and Wright is injured. But O’Connell still has plenty of reliable targets in an offense that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 340.2 passing Yards-Per-Game: Jackson Anthrop caught 48 passes for 496 yards with five touchdowns; wide receiver T.J. Sheffield caught 33 passes for 264 yards with four touchdowns; tight end Payne Durham caught 40 passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns. The Boilermakers’ defense held opponents to just 20.5 PPG and 341.7 total YPG. Purdue was 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 194.6 passing YPG. They rank 28th in opponent’s Success Rate on defense — and they rank 20th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per Play. The Boilermakers pulled off upsets against Michigan State and Iowa earlier in the season when they were both ranked in the top-five in the nation at the time. After losing to Ohio State in mid-November, Purdue bounced back to beat Northwestern by a 32-14 score before their win against the Hoosiers to end their regular season. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog under head coach Jeff Brohm. Tennessee has been inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Volunteers rushed for 285 yards against the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tennessee has a potent offense that averages 38.8 PPG — but they also allow 27.5 PPG and 404.6 total YPG. On the road, the Volunteers give up 39.0 PPG and 521.8 total YPG in their four games away from Knoxville. The Tennessee pass defense allows 251.4 passing YPG — they allow 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt and rank 62nd in Pass Success Rate allowed. The Vols fail to generate much of a pass rush — they rank 116th in their Pass Rush Grade. O’Connell thrives in clean pockets — Pro Football Focus grades him at 92.2 when not under pressure with an adjusted completed percentage of 80.8%.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and Purdue has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Volunteers have a geographical advantage with this game being played a few hours west in Nashville from their Knoxville campus — but if you think this afternoon game is going to attract enough Tennessee fans who are going to be consistently loud enough for this bowl game to disrupt the snap count of the Boilermakers on offense, then I have some beachside property in Tennessee I would like to sell you. Most of the Tennessee players have probably never played in Nissan Stadium — so there is not a familiarity advantage. The relative advantage of having more fans cheering in a bowl game is perhaps the most overrated intangible deployed by lazy pundits. This is not “white-out” night game in Knoxville against a hated rival; it's a quicker bus ride. 10* CFB Music City Bowl ESPN Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Carolina (6-6) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-0 shutout loss to Clemson as an 11.5-point underdog on November 27th. North Carolina (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-30 loss at North Carolina State as a 5.5-point underdog on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina exceeded expectations this season in the first year of rookie head coach Shane Beamer. The son of legendary head coach Frank Beamer lacked head coaching experience after serving as the assistant head coach and tight end’s coach at Oklahoma from 2018-2020. Beamer inherited 14 starters from a team that finished 2-8 last season. The Gamecocks have steadily improved this season — and upset victories against Florida and Auburn in November put them in a position to be bowl eligible. Beamer will be using sixth-year senior Zeb Noland at quarterback this afternoon after injuries at the position compelled him to the graduate assistant to remove his coaching duties to take the field. Noland was originally recruited by Iowa State before playing at North Dakota State. In four starts, Noland made six “big-time” throws while only committing one turnover-worthy play. He protects the football which will help the defense keep South Carolina in the game. The Gamecocks only gained 206 yards against the stout Clemson defense — but they are then 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jason Brown is in the transfer portal and sophomore quarterback Luke Doty suffered a season-ending injury in October — so this will be Noland’s game. Running back ZaQuandre White is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but South Carolina has freshman MarShawn Lloyd to turn to as he prepares to take on the lead back role next season. Lloyd is a former top-50 recruit. The Gamecocks have a good defense that ranks in the top-30 in opponent Finishing Drives. South Carolina also ranked seventh in the nation by allowing only 178.8 passing YPG — and they were tied for tenth in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels generated 299 yards on the ground against the Wolfpack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. North Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. Quarterback Sam Howell is playing in his last game for the Tar Heels before preparing for the NFL draft — but the problem for this team all season has been their defense. North Carolina allows 31.6 PPG and 407.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tar Heels were also winless in their five games away from home with the offense sputtering with just 23.8 PPG. Pass protection was an ongoing problem with North Carolina surrendering 45 sacks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Duke’s Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-6) is on a two-game winning streak after their 34-28 win at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite on November 27th. Minnesota (8-4) is also on a two-game winning streak after their 23-13 upset win against Wisconsin as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. This game takes place on a neutral field at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia started slow this season with four losses in their first five games but they eked by to become bowl eligible by winning four of their last six games including upset wins against TCU and Iowa State along with a late November victory against Texas. After not scoring more than 27 points in their first five games, the West Virginia offense behind senior quarterback Jarret Doege scored at least 29 points in four of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Doege is a former transfer from Bowling Green who has been a two-year starter in this program. He completed 65.4% of his passes this season. He will not have the services of top running back Leodie Brown who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but head coach Neal Brown has options in sophomore Tony Mathis, Jr. and freshman A’Varius Sparrow. Brown developed a strong program at Troy which he used as a stepping stone to get this Power Five conference job. He will have relished the additional practice time to prepare for a crucial fourth year in his tenure in Morgantown. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after upsetting the Badgers to spoil their opportunity to play in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. The Golden Gophers have six of their last eight games to close out the regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Minnesota only managed 282 yards in their upset win against Wisconsin. The Gophers can struggle to generate points as they have not topped 23 points in five of their last eight games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Guaranteed Rate Field ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237) in the Birmingham Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-6) is on a four-game losing streak after their 24-22 loss in overtime to Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog on November 27th. Houston (11-2) comes off a 35-20 loss to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the new Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Tigers demonstrated their vast potential in almost upsetting the Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl a month ago. They sacked Alabama quarterback Bryce Young seven times while holding the Tide to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries. This should be a motivated Auburn team with first-year head coach Bryan Harsin using this game as a lift-off point for next season. Harsin fired offensive coordinator Mike Bobo after the Alabama game — he will call the plays this afternoon and he has already brought in Bobo’s replacement in former NFL quarterback Austin Davis who served as the quarterbacks' coach for the Seattle Seahawks this season. Harsin does not want to go into his first offseason with a losing record. And this game is an opportunity to further develop former LSU transfer, T.J. Finley, at quarterback with the enigmatic Bo Nix in the transfer portal. The Tigers are down three starting offensive tackles for this game — and their star cornerback Roger McCreary has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. But this is an SEC power that is loaded for talent — and this is the first game for the 2022-23 season in Harsin’s mind. Harsin and his coaching staff did convince sophomore running back Tank Bigsby to not enter the transfer portal — he will be anchoring the offense in this game. The Tigers’ defense is battle-tested from the rigors of SEC play and a non-conference game against Penn State. They only allowed 22.2 Points-Per-Game and just 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 15th in the nation in Tackles-For-Loss. Their point spread cover against Alabama was the first time they covered the point spread in four games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Houston lost their opening game at Texas Tech by a 38-21 score before rattling off 11 straight wins before their loss to the Bearcats. This is just the second game the Cougars will be playing all season against a Power Five conference opponent — and it may be telling that their two losses were by double-digits. They had three net close wins decided by one scoring possession against their Group of Five opponents. And they will be playing this game without their star cornerback Marcus Jones who also generated tons of hidden yards when returning kicks on special teams. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and the Tigers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams in his career have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. 10* CFB Birmingham Bowl ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-3 victory against Buffalo as a 6-point favorite on November 23rd in their last regular-season game. Georgia State (7-5) won their last three games to end their regular season after a 37-10 victory against Troy as a 6.5-point favorite on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State won the Mid-American Conference championship last season before beating San Jose State by a 34-13 score in Arizona Bowl to secure the first bowl victory in the program’s history. The Cardinals did not meet expectations this season — but 16 fifth and six-year seniors have the opportunity to end their legacies on a high note in this game. In hindsight, perhaps regression should have been expected for head coach Mike Neu’s team after four net close victories and three net upset wins last year. They only outgained their seven conference opponents by +21.3 net Yards-Per-Game despite winning six of those games. This group has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win against a conference opponent. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win -- and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread victory. They are led by a senior quarterback in Drew Plitt who threw 17 touchdown passes and only threw five interceptions. The Cardinals are a dangerous underdog because they limit their mistakes. They rank in the top-20 in the nation by averaging only 41.6 penalty Yards-Per-Game and by only committing 10 turnovers all season. They also are efficient in the Red Zone by registering points in 33 of their 38 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Georgia State started the season 1-4 before winning six of their last seven — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Panthers' improvement coincided with head coach Shawn Elliott’s decision to bench incumbent starter Cornelius Brown for Furman transfer Darren Grainger. While the team raised their scoring average to 32.5 Points-Per-Game with the junior as a starter, the Georgia State offense revolves around their rushing attack. In his last five games, Grainger has only accounted for six touchdowns — and he completed only 55.8% of his 113 passes over that span while averaging just 145.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 6.45 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Panthers were outscored and outgained this season — and they were outgained by -7.64 net YPG in their six games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State’s offense averaged 4.98 Yards-Per-Carry and 2245 rushing YPG behind the two-headed monster of Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams — but Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who average at least 200 rushing YPG and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against opponents who average at least 4.15 YPC. 10* CBB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292) in the Frisco Football Classic. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (5-6) lost their chance to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a 48-47 upset loss in overtime at Kent State as a 1-point favorite on November 27th. North Texas (6-6) won their fifth straight game with a 45-23 upset win against UTSA as a 9.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami should respond with a strong effort for head coach Chuck Martin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to a conference rival. This has been an explosive team on offense since sophomore quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury on October 23rd. They have scored more than 37 Points-Per-Game in their last six games while averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play in their last five contests. Gabbert has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions won the season — and he has averaged 9.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last five starts since returning from injury. He completed 26 of 51 passes for 405 yards with four touchdown passes in the loss to the Golden Flashes. He should have success against the suspect Mean Green secondary that allows 7.9 YPA and ranks 123rd in the nation in Explosiveness Allowed in the passing game. The issue for Miami (OH) is to play better on the defensive side of the football. They allowed a power Kent State offense to gain 303 yards on the ground and 339 yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas may have upset the Roadrunners in their last game — but they were facing a UTSA team that had already clinched their spot in the Conference USA Championship Game and who rested their key starters in the second half of the game. The Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. North Texas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Mean Green allowed 205 rushing yards in their victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. North Texas had failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when playing on grass. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl Classic ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (11-2) looks to rebound from a 46-13 upset loss to Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 4th. UTSA (12-1) won the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-41 upset win against Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on December 3rd. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State was without 20 players on the COVID list including quarterback Lucas Johnson in their loss to the Aggies. The roster appears to be mostly healthy again for this opportunity to end the season on a positive note after that disappointment in their conference championship game. Winning this game would also give this team 12 wins to break a school record for victories. As it is, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a double-digit loss. San Diego State is also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 AS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Head coach Brady Hoke has a stout defensive unit that holds their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game — they should play much better tonight back at full strength. San Diego State also has a secret weapon to complement their defensive approach with punter Matt Araiza who averages 51.4 yards per punt this season — and he has 36 punts that landed inside their 20-yard line. UTSA may be due for a letdown after winning their conference championship. The Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a Conference USA opponent. UTSA generated 556 total yards against the Hilltoppers in that triumph — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA running back Sincere McCormick has opted-out of this game to enter the NFL draft — the Roadrunners will miss his 3900 career rushing yards after he generated 1479 rushing yards this season with 15 touchdowns on 299 carries. They score 37.8 Points-Per-Game this year — but they play an angry Aztecs team that has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games against teams who score at least 34 PPG. 20* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UAB (8-4) won their third game in their last four with their 42-25 win against UTEP as a 14-point favorite on November 26th. BYU (10-2) won their fifth straight game with a 35-31 victory at USC as an 8-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB should build off the momentum of the close of their good regular-season finish. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games under head coach Bill Clark when getting at least two weeks to prepare for the game. This could very well be Clark’s best team at UAB in his six years with the program. He returned 17 starters from last season’s team that finished 6-3 but did not get to play in the Gasparilla Bowl when it got canceled because of COVID. The UAB offense scores 29.4 PPG while averaging a healthy 5.9 Yards-Per-Play. They rank fifth in the nation in Expected Points per rushing attempt — and they have the 11th highest rush rate on offense in the country. The Blazers should be able to run the ball against this Cougars’ defense that allows their opponents to average 4.4 Yards-Per-Carr and who rank 93rd in the FBS in Rush Success Rate allowed. The UAB defense is stout — they are 19th in the nation by allowing only 4.8 YPP. They hold opposing rushers to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank third in the nation in Rushing Explosiveness allowed. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. This is the Cougars’ third straight game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games playing their last two games on the road. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games on the road. They did allow the Trojans to gain 458 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. BYU was expected to take a step back this season after losing five players to the NFL draft from the team that finished 11-1 last year against a schedule that did not include a Power 5 opponent. A +0.83 net turnover margin that was 10th best in the nation helped. But the Cougars were also fortunate to win all four of their games that were decided by one scoring possession. They scored 33.5 Points-Per-Game but saw that scoring average fall by -4.8 PPG and their yardage plummet by -24.7 net Yards-Per-Game when playing away from home. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored — and UAB has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. 20* CFB UAB-BYU ABC-TV Special with the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 28-21 upset win at Nebraska as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Michigan (11-1) upset Ohio State by a 42-27 score as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolverines slayed their proverbial white whale in the Buckeyes last week. I expect an emotional letdown — and then the pressure will kick in that losing this game will spoil their college playoff aspirations. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory. The Wolverines have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games on the road after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while their win against Ohio State came after a 59-18 win at Maryland, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Michigan did allow 394 passing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last contest. The Wolverines allow 17.2 Points-Per-Game and 319.4 total Yards-Per-Game — but those numbers rise to 23.6 PPG and 345.4 total YPG when playing away from the Big House. Nebraska scored 29 points against them and Michigan State put up 37 points against them with those games not in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a win on the road in their last game. Scoring is the biggest concern for this team — but head coach Kirk Ferentz is turning to Spencer Petras as his starter who has a better deep ball. The Hawkeyes have been better on offense in their last four games where they are averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Play and 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry — as opposed to the 4.0 YPP and 2.8 rushing YPC averages in their first eight games. Iowa is elite with their other two phases of the game with their defense and special teams. They hold their opponents to 17.3 PPG — and they are ninth in the nation in points allowed per drive. They generate points from their defense and special teams units — they have six non-offensive touchdowns this season and that is not a fluke under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are third in the nation with a +13 net turnover margin. The analytics community is too quick to consider this “luck” — but forcing turnovers is a skill that is taught. Where the bouncing (or tipped) ball goes can be a function of luck — but forcing the fumble or tipped pass is a skill. Iowa has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. ESPN’s SP+ metrics rate Iowa’s special teams as the fifth-best unit in the nation. This formula for success is why Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has not been a double-digit underdog since 2017. Michigan only beat teams with a similar profile — Nebraska and Penn State — by 3 and 4 points. Mistakes and turnovers were the reason why they lost to Michigan State. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Michigan just wants to escape with a win — covering doesn’t matter. Expect plenty of nervy moments for the Wolverines tonight. 20* CFB Iowa-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Houston (11-1) has won eleven straight games after their 45-17 win at UConn as a 32-point favorite on Saturday. Cincinnati (12-0) remained unbeaten with their 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: I expect this to be a nervy game for the Bearcats with their spot in the college football playoff likely secured with a victory. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least seen in a row. After a stretch of games that included one-score wins against Navy and Tulsa, Cincinnati has outgained their last three opponents by at least +150 yards. But the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least 150 net yards. Cincinnati has shown some cracks in their armor when playing teams who can get to the quarterback. Desmond Ridder has been sacked 18 times this season — and he was sacked eight times in their bowl game loss against Georgia last year. The Bearcats score 46 PPG when Ridder faces a pressure rate no higher than 15% — but that scoring average drops by 11 PPG in the games when he faced a pressure rate higher than 15%. Here comes Houston that has a pressure rate of 40% on the quarterback. The Cougars are sixth in the nation by sacking the quarterback in 10% of their dropbacks. Houston is second in the nation in Havoc Rate and fifth in Pressure Rate. They have seven players with at least 3.5 sacks — so this is a balanced unit that does not rely heavily on the blitz to apply pressure. Overall, “Sack Avenue” is fourth in the nation with 41 team sacks. Houston is seventh in the nation by holding their opponents to 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are tough against the run and the pass — they rank 12th in the nation in opponent Rush Success Rate and second in the FBS in opponent Pass Success Rate. The Cougars' offense is dynamic as well as they have scored at least 40 points seven times. Quarterback Clayton Tune is completing 69% of his passes and averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last seven starts, Tune has 19 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. In their eleven-game winning streak, Houston has outscored their opponents by +22.1 PPG. They gained 472 yards last week against the Huskies — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. Houston is also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen assembled a bunch of talent taking full advantage of the transfer portal started by his de-facto tank job in 2019 when he redshirted a number of his players before using up their eligibility. The fruits of those efforts are now being realized. Cincinnati is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. 20* CFB Houston-Cincinnati ABC-TV Special with Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) comes off a 38-29 win against Oregon State as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Utah (9-3) has won five straight games after their 28-13 victory against Colorado as a 24-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon gets the opportunity to redeem themselves from a 38-7 loss to the Utes in Salt Lake City back on November 20th. That was probably the Ducks’ worst game of the season. The wheels fell off in the second quarter where Utah scored two touchdowns to take a 21-0 lead before returning a punt for 78 yards at the end of the half to go into the locker room down 28-0. We had the Utes that game — I liked the situation for them then. I like the Ducks now in what I see as a coin flip game on a neutral field. Oregon rebounded last week in their rivalry game with Oregon State. The Ducks generated 506 yards in the contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They held a 24-3 halftime lead in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 60 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while the Ducks had been on a five-game winning streak before their loss to the Utes, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite. The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Buffaloes to just 148 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Utah plays their best defense in the high altitude in Salt Lake City where they hold their opponents to just 15.8 PPG. But in their six games on the road, they are just 3-3 while allowing their opponents to score 27.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). THE SITUATION: Virginia (6-5) has lost three straight games after their 48-38 loss at Pittsburgh as a 13-point underdog last week. Virginia Tech (5-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-26 loss at Miami (FL) as a 7-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia did get back quarterback Brennan Armstrong after he missed time with an injury. The southpaw completed 36 of 49 passes for 487 yards with three touchdown passes in the loss. The Cavaliers were only outgained by -4 yards to the Panthers by generating 504 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. And they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Armstrong threw an interception which accounted for the lone Cavaliers turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG — and they outgain their guests by +123.0 Yards-Per-Game. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Hokies committed only one turnover against the Hurricanes, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach J.C. Price who took over after Justin Fuente was fired two weeks ago. Virginia Tech stays on the road where they are just 1-3 with an average losing margin of -5.8 PPG. They only score 19.0 PPG while averaging 317.5 total YPG on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be looking to avenge a 33-15 loss to the Hokies last season — so they will be very motivated to end their struggles against this team. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). THE SITUATION: Florida (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-23 upset loss at Missouri in overtime last Saturday. Florida State (5-6) has registered two straight upset victories after their 26-23 upset win at Boston College as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: The streaking Seminoles upset Miami (FL) two weeks ago by a 31-28 score. But Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a road underdog. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG and getting outgained by -76.3 net YPG. The Seminoles defense gives up too many big plays — they rank 120th in Explosiveness Allowed. They give up 402.8 total YPG and 28.3 PPG in their four games on the road. They are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. Florida plays their first game since Dan Mullen was fired as their head coach in just his second season with the team. It sure looks like many of the players stopped playing for him two weeks ago when they were getting trounced at home against Samford. The Gators rebounded in the second half to win that game by 18 points — but giving up 52 points to an FCS team is troubling. They had not allowed more than 31 points at home all season before that game — and that was in a 2-point loss to mighty Alabama. This remains one of the most talented teams in the nation who played the Crimson Tide tough earlier this year and in last year’s SEC Championship Game. A tough loss at LSU and then getting crushed against Georgia seems to have broken the team — and the players stopped responding to Mullen. Expect a spirited effort with Mullen now gone for interim head coach Greg Knox — it is the player’s way of communicating that he was the problem. Florida has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by seven points or less to a conference opponent. The Gators have only played one of their last six games at home — so getting back to the Swamp will help. They are 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +20.6 net PPG and +155 net YPG marks. They score 42.8 PPG at home while generating 539.8 total YPG. With Emory Jones nursing an ankle injury, the talented Anthony Richardson gets the start at quarterback (which is fine). Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida will be motivated to play on Senior Day with the opportunity to stick it to Mullen — and these players do not want the shame of not even becoming bowl eligible. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in games outside the ACC. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). THE SITUATION: Utah (7-3) has won three games in a row with their 38-29 win at Arizona last week as a 24-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) has won five games in a row with their 38-24 victory against Washington State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should continue to build off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival. The Utes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning two in a row against Pac-12 foes. Utah is a better team now that they have settled their quarterback situation. Former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer was under center early in the season — but the offense has improved after a disgruntled Brewer left the program because he was being outplayed by Cameron Rising. The former Texas recruit completed 19 of 30 passes last week for 294 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Rising has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions — and he has made 13 Big-Time Throws with only three turnover-worthy plays. Utah is 3-3 on the road this year after starting the season 1-2 — but they are an unbeaten 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. They generate 430.8 total YPG at home while allowing just 340.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored. The Utes defense has held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG and 323.0 YPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in conference play. Oregon has covered the point spread in their last two games after their narrow cover against the Cougars last week. But the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while their win against Washington State finished Over the 58 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Ducks defense has some issues despite having a likely top-ten pick in the next NFL draft in defensive lineman Kayvan Thibodeaux. Oregon is 95th in the nation in defensive touchdown rate in the Red Zone. They are also 73rd in Havoc Rate — and Utah is 18th in Havoc Rate Allowed on offense. The Ducks goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 South with a one-game lead against Arizona State while controlling the tie-breaker with their victory against the Sun Devils. But Kyle Whittingham does not have his team take their foot off the gas pedal this time of the season. The Utes have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. And Whittingham will motivate his team to avenge the 37-15 loss to the Ducks in their last meeting on December 6th in 2019 by a 37-15 score. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). THE SITUATION: Navy (2-7) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-6 loss at Notre Dame as a 21-point underdog two weeks ago. East Carolina (6-4) has won three in a row after their 30-29 upset win in overtime against Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the disappointing record, Navy still has their showdown with Army to think about — so this is an important game to establish some momentum for that final rivalry game in three weeks. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen only gained 184 yards against the Irish in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Despite their seven losses, Navy has been competitive — they lost by one score to the powers in the American Athletic Conference in Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU. They are 19th in the nation in Red Zone defense by keeping their opponents scoreless in 25% of their trips. It is Senior Day in Annapolis this afternoon — and the Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 29 of 46 passes for 317 yards in leading the Pirates to the upset win against the Tigers — but they are just 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The boxscore indicates that East Carolina outgained Memphis by a 502 to 341 yards margin — but they only averaged 4.9 Yards-Per-Play while allowing the Tigers to average 6.4 YPP. The Pirates are not likely to win the time of possession against a Navy team who average 35:34 minutes per game behind their triple-option rushing attack. After the emotional victory last week — and Cincinnati on deck — East Carolina may not have had their full attention during the week in preparing for the Midshipmen’s unique offense. They allow 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and they have surrendered 226 rushing yards to Appalachian State, 204 rushing yards to Marshall, and 199 rushing yards to South Florida. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has not beaten Navy since 2011. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Midshipmen after losing at home to them last season by a 27-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Don’t be surprised if Navy wins this game outright — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: Florida (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-42 upset loss at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Georgia (7-0) remained unbeaten with their 30-13 win against Kentucky two Saturdays ago as a 21.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Turnovers did Florida in on the road in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. The Gators suffered a -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games away from home after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The ex-factor for head coach Dan Mullen is freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson who completed 10 of 19 passes for 167 yards while adding 37 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The bye week should allow them time to develop more plays tailored for the exciting player who is averaging 12.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 18.7 Yards-Per-Completion. Florida gained 488 total yards against the Tigers in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 20 games after a bye week, the Gators have covered the point spread in 14 of these games. Georgia dominated the Wildcats two weeks ago by averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Play while holding them to 3.5 YPP — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP and limiting their last opponent to 3.75 YPP in their last game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Georgia is outstanding on defense as they have not allowed more than 13 points in a game all season — and they have held their last five opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Georgia has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is available to play this afternoon — but that may add some chaos into the equation for the favorites who have been riding senior Stetson Bennett for most of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has the pressure of being the number one ranked team in the nation — and they have never been favored by more than 13 points against Florida in program history. Their 10-7 opening week win against Clemson does not look nearly as impressive two months later. The Gators will have the confidence that they can pull the upset. After playing Alabama close in the SEC Championship Game last year, Florida lost to the Crimson Tide by a 31-29 score as a 14-point underdog back on September 18th this season. And the Gators upset this Bulldogs team last year by a 44-28 score as a 3-point favorite in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. 10* CFB Georgia-Florida CBS-TV Special with the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). THE SITUATION: USC (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-26 upset loss at home to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on October 9th. Notre Dame (5-1) takes the field again after their 32-29 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog on October 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC outgained the Utes two weeks ago by seven yards but lost the turnover battle en route to losing the game. The Trojans are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. USC has also covered the pint spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. The Trojans are in transition after firing head coach Clay Helton earlier in the season. Interim head coach Donte Williams is auditioning for a head coaching gig moving forward — and both coordinators have plenty to work for regarding future coaching gigs. USC seems to always be inconsistent — but after losing to Utah, the players should be motivated to play in South Bend against an arch-rival on national television. USC has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Trojans have played three straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 13  of their last 16 road games after playing at least three straight overs. Quarterback Kedon Slovis was banged up earlier in the season — but he is getting healthy again. He completed 33 of 53 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns against a good Utah defense. The extra week of rest should help — and USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a close win by three points or less on the road. That was the Fighting Irish’s third victory this season by just a field goal against mediocre competition after also just getting by Florida State and Toledo before the Hokies. Notre Dame is younger this year — and they are dealing with injuries. This Trojans team has more talent than those three teams they beat by a field goal — USC’s issue is focus. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Notre Dame pinned their hopes on Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan at quarterback who lost his job to the guy struggling under center for the Badgers now. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: USC has lost by just seven and three points — while covering the point spread — in their previous two encounters when unranked against an Irish team ranked in the top-15. 10* CFB USC-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 20-18 win at South Alabama as a 12-point favorite on October 2nd. Appalachian State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 45-16 win against Georgia State as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana is not being given much respect by bettors after three of their victories have been by eight points or less. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only covered the point spread in a 49-14 blowout win against Ohio this season — by they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The team misses their running back duo from last season in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas who moved on to the NFL (with Mitchell now a primary back for San Francisco). But in head coach Billy Napier I trust — and he has a senior-laden team with 20 starters back from last year’s group that qualified for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game for the third straight season. The offense is led by fifth-year senior and third-year starter Levi Lewis who has won a bunch of games for this team. The dual-threat quarterback only passed for 49 yards last week — but Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. Lewis is completing 62.7% of his passes with only one interception in his 150 pass attempts. The Ragin’ Cajun defense has not allowed more than 24 points in their last four games after giving up 38 points in their opening game loss at Texas to begin the season. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games when getting up to 7 points. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 21 or more points against a conference rival. The Mountaineers generated 502 yards against the Panthers last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Shawn Clark has 17 starters back from the team that finished 9-3 last year. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana had lost all eight of their games with Appalachian State since 2014 -- including twice in 2019 including the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game — before avenging that loss last season with a 24-21 upset win in Boone on December 4th as a 3-point underdog. This is a crucial game for the Mountaineers who have Coastal Carolina on deck and little wiggle-room in the SBC West Division to take a loss. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in better shape in the East Division to reach the championship game for a fourth straight season (last year’s game was a COVID cancellation) — but the Mountaineers remain their white whale even after last year’s triumph. Expect a close game with Louisiana in a position to win late. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.