At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (288) in the National Championship Game of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (13-2) has won seven games in a row after their 31-27 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point favorite in the college football semifinals on January 8th. Indiana (15-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 56-22 victory against Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite in their semifinals contest. This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, which happens to be the home of the Hurricanes. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana is a really good team — but my instincts do not like this situation for them at all. In fact, this situation reminds me of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when Ohio State upset an undefeated Miami (FL) team that was the reigning national champions, which was loaded with future NFL players as an 11.5-point underdog. This Hoosiers team is not as talented as that historic Hurricanes team — but the circumstances are similar, with this game risking seeming to be a fait accompli after their blowout victories against Alabama and Oregon in their two playoff games. I don’t love that this is just their third game since December 6th. In hindsight, I’m not sure either victory will age well. The Crimson Tide could not run the ball — and that left their offense exposed against well-coached top-level defenses. And then it only took five minutes into their game with the Ducks that I was cursing myself for backing a Dan Lanning-coached team in a big game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore made costly mistakes early and often in that game, which immediately impacted the game script. The Ducks’ defensive line is not as stout as previous incarnations under Lanning. Those two victories helped inflate the line and probably push it past the touchdown key number. But let’s remember that the Hoosiers scored no more than 27 points four times this season. Four of their victories were decided by 10 points or less — including two wins against Ohio State and Penn State by just a field goal and one win (against Iowa!) by only five points. The common thread in those four games is that Indiana failed to rush for more than 118 yards in those contests — and they did not generate more than 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry in those four games. Now they face a Miami (FL) run defense that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s teams at James Madison and now Indiana have been point spread covering machines — his teams have a 33-19 ATS mark in his head coaching career, including an 18-10 ATS record with the Hoosiers. But the cracks in the armor, where his teams do not consistently overachieve, are against teams with tough run defenses. In his career, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 10 games against teams that hold their opponents to no more than 3.5 YPC, including a 3-3 ATS mark with Indiana. In his six games with the Hoosiers when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range, they are just 3-3 ATS. God help us, as we are backing Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal with his sketchy game management — and the penalties his team is going to commit will be infuriating. But I do have confidence that Cristobal will not engage in the fast pace as his team did against Ole Miss, but instead manage this game to get into the fourth quarter. Get Indiana worried that their perfect season is slipping away! Inspire confidence in his players, who should have their beliefs enabled by the NFL Hall of Fame alumni patrolling the sidelines next to them. Miami’s strength is their physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage — something that Alabama and Oregon lacked. For the sake of argument, I will concede that the Hoosiers are the better-coached team (but it may not be by as wide a margin as one may assume). But there is a solid case that the Hurricanes have more top end talent with three projected first round NFL draft picks. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. may be the best player on the field. These are the type of games that Cristobal gets Miami to overachieve. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams ranked in the top 25 in the Associated Press poll. Indiana generates 6.25 Yards-Per-Play and 9.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Miami (FL) has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who average 6.25 or more YPP, and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams who average 8.3 or more YPA. And while the Hoosiers score 42.6 Points-Per-Game, the Hurricanes under Cristobal have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams that score 37 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Playing on their home field certainly helps — while I am not expecting an overly partisan crowd given the huge Indiana alumni base, the Miami players will have the advantage of familiarity and comfort playing on their home field (and perhaps embrace a sense of destiny as they stand next to Michael Irvin). Lastly, I think it would be a mistake to quickly dismiss the Hurricanes as simply an also-ran ACC team. They lost two one-possession games against Louisville and SMU — but their resume featuring victories against Ohio State, Mississippi (who beat Georgia), Texas A&M, and even Notre Dame to begin the season stacks up favorably to Indiana’s best wins. ACC teams may have entered this postseason with only nine victories in their last 39 games against teams from the Big Ten or SEC, with an 11-28 ATS mark in those contests, but the ACC has won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games against the Big Ten and SEC this postseason. I think one of the lessons of this Indiana team is that success in this new era of the transfer portal and NIL means that national champions require a roster full of blue-chip players. But the flip side of that coin is that programs that recruit well — especially on the line of scrimmage — have closed the gap because the best teams are just not quite as elite as they once were. And I did not even yet mention Carson Beck, who has a 36-6 record as a starting quarterback and will have a chip on his shoulder as the once projected first-round NFL draft pick. I expect a close game. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) plus the points versus Indiana Hoosiers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (275) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (276) in the semifinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Oregon (13-1) has won eight games in a row after their 23-0 shutout upset victory as a 1-point underdog on January 1st. Indiana (14-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 38-3 win against Alabama as a 7.5-point favorite on January 1st. The Peach Bowl takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks completely stymied Texas Tech in their shutout win by limiting them to 215 total yards. The Ducks rank fourth in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed and fifth in Opponents Yards Per Play Allowed. They should build on their momentum for this rematch with Indiana. Oregon has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after a win by 17 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Despite losing at home by a 30-20 score as a 7-point favorite back on October 11th, the Ducks’ defense was largely successful against the Hoosiers in that first game. Indiana was held to just 326 yards — and one of their touchdowns came from an interception returned for a touchdown. They averaged only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in their ground game, and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza gained only 215 yards in the air with zero Big-Time Throws. Since that game, Oregon has shifted from Cover-3 to Cover-2 in their pass coverage to allow safety Dillon Thieneman to freelance and roam the field. He had a season-high in tackles last week. Indiana held the Crimson Tide to just 193 yards last week. The Ducks generate 7.0 Yards-Per-Play this season — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games since Curt Cignetti took over as head coach last season against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. Oregon holds their opponents to 4.3 YPP — and the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games against teams that do not allow more than 6.0 YPP. This will be the seventh time that Indiana will be playing a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher under Cignetti — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 previous contests. 

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 opportunities for revenge since Lanning took over as their head coach. And while the Hoosiers are the number one ranked team in the nation, the Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams who are ranked higher than them in the Associated Press top 25. 10* CFB Oregon-Indiana ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (275) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (274) in the college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (12-2) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 upset victory against Ohio State as an 8-point underdog in the quarterfinals on December 31st. Mississippi (13-1) has won seven games in a row after their 39-34 upset victory against Georgia as a 6-point underdog in their quarterfinals contest on January 1st. The Fiesta Bowl is played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (FL) became the first team in eight years to hold the Buckeyes scoreless in the first half last week. They held the explosive Ohio State offense to just 332 total yards. Fourth-year head coach Mario Cristobal declared in his sideline interview for that game that the winner of that game will be the side that is more physical — and I do not think he will be changing his tune against Ole Miss. From my vantage point, the Hurricanes have the better offensive and defensive lines in this matchup. Miami (FL) has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Running back Mark Fletcher has emerged in the two playoff games with 262 rushing yards. Miami will continue to feed Fletcher against a suspect Rebels run defense that ranks just 67th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and opposing rushers generate 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cristobal will not want too much asked of fifth-year senior quarterback Carson Beck, who can get into trouble with interceptions. He has only thrown for 241 passing yards and averaged 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in his two playoff games — but he has not thrown an interception. He is 36-5 as a starting quarterback with plenty of big-game experience. On defense, defensive end Rueben Bain, Jr. and defensive tackle Akeem Mesidor have dominated both the Texas A&M and Ohio State offensive lines. Just in the playoffs, they have combined for 33 pressures on the quarterback, eight sacks, and nine tackles for loss. They are giving up only 285.1 total YPG, which is resulting in 13.1 PPG — and they have only given up 17 combined points in both playoff games. The Ole Miss offense is explosive as they generate 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But Miami has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams that average 7.9 or more YPA. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Ole Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss looked outstanding last week in his ability to improvise and make big plays with his arm and his legs. But Georgia’s pass rush was their weakness this season — the test Bain and Mesidor will present to Chambliss tonight is much tougher. I appreciate that Mississippi gets into a bunch of high-scoring games — but those were against opponents looking to attack their defense. I suspect they will get lulled into the rock fight that Cristobal wants this game to become. I have given much thought to the Hurricanes not stacking up well against a team from the SEC in this matchup. But Miami has the better resume with victories against Texas A&M and Ohio State, while the Rebels beat a flawed Georgia team (in a revenge game) and Tulane in the playoffs. Furthermore, while the ACC has struggled against the Big Ten and SEC in past postseason showdowns, ACC teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against those two conferences this year. I’m not sure that reflects the improvement of the ACC as much as the negative effect of the transfer portal and NIL bringing Big Ten and SEC programs back to the pack. What I do know is that the weakest link in this game is the Mississippi defense. That unit ranks 126th in Havoc Rate (after ranking third in that metric last season) and 77th in Pro Football Focus’s tackling grading system. On the road, they are surrendering 417.8 total YPG, which is resulting in 27.8 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I just can’t get over the intangibles in this game. Ole Miss has lost two assistant coaches on offense this week, Joe Cox and George McDonald, who are moving with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr., to join Lane Kiffin’s staff at LSU. While Kiffin granted permission for Weis to continue this week, he did not do the same for Cox and McDonald after both coached the game against Georgia. Cox was the tight ends coach and co-offensive coordinator. McDonald was the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator. Sure, Weis calls the plays — and there will be other assistants now picking up that slack. But this is an Ole Miss offense now missing two important assistant coaches — and they already lost Kiffin, who was the supposed guru of this entire operation. The inexperience of new head coach Pete Golding was already a red flag for the Rebels — and they have to play this game with one day less of rest and preparation than Cristobal’s crew. Then there is this: the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams ranked in the Associated Press top 25 rankings. With --3s now the consensus line for Miami, I endorse (and bet). 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (259) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (260) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oregon (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 51-34 win against James Madison as a 20.5-point favorite in the first round of the college football playoffs. Texas Tech (12-1) has won six games in a row after their 34-7 win against BYU as a 13.5-point favorite in the Big 12 championship game on December 6th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison had a strong defensive line akin to good Power Four conference units — but Oregon made their defense look silly by generating 514 yards of offense in just 24:10 minutes. And while the Dukes gained 509 yards against them, most of that production came in the second half when the Ducks were in complete control and cruising. Oregon has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a blowout victory by 17 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after scoring 37 or more points, including 8 of those 12 games played on the road. Their offense ranks fourth in the nation in Points Per Drive, fueled by a diverse rushing attack that ranks second in the nation by generating 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Their defense ranks second in the nation in limiting explosive plays and fifth in avoiding missed or broken tackles. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Texas Tech has won all their games by 22 or more points — and their lone loss against Arizona State was when starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured. But the Red Raiders’ schedule was not challenging as it ranked just 68th toughest in the nation using the Jeff Sagarin rankings. Of more concern is that it is the worst ranking in Sagaran’s top 27 teams in the nation. Their non-conference schedule was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. They played four games against ranked opponents: BYU (twice), Utah, and Houston. Oregon’s schedule ranks 17th toughest in the nation according to Sagarin, featuring Penn State (pre-implosion in September) and USC. I suspect the Texas Tech defense will stand up — although the 26 points the Sun Devils put up against them may be a canary in the coal mine. But the offense can get stuck. The portal acquisitions for their offensive line have not been nearly as rewarding as those for their defensive line. Texas Tech ranks outside the top 95 in the nation in both Adjusted Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. More concerning is that they rank 101st in the nation by only scoring touchdowns in 56% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They settled for field goals in their Red Zone trips at the 12th-highest rate in the FBS. In their three games against BYU (twice) and Utah, they scored touchdowns in only five of their 14 Red Zone trips for a 35% touchdown rate. The Ducks do rank 70th in opponent Red Zone touchdown rate — but they are also top ten in the nation by allowing only 2.3 Red Zone trips per game. If the Red Raiders do not improve their efficiency when they do get inside Oregon’s 20-yard line, they will be in trouble. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games under head coach Joey McGuire in his tenure when the Total is set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range under McGuire. 


FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I have two lingering concerns about the Red Raiders. All of their blowout victories leaves them untested in the fourth quarter in clutch time. That then combines with their lack of experience on the big stage like this. Taking on Oregon in the college football quarterfinals on New Year’s Day is not the same thing as playing BYU again in the Big 12 championship game. The Ducks played in the playoffs last season and have gutted out close games this year. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage at 75% or higher. 10* CFB Oregon-Texas Tech ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (259) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (258) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) (257) in the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-1) lost their first game of the season in the Big Ten championship game in their 13-10 upset loss against Indiana as a 3-point favorite. Miami (FL) reached the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs with their 10-3 upset win at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog on December 20th. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I’m still not sure what happened to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. They went into halftime with a 10-6 lead. They surrendered the lead midway through the third quarter and failed to score in the second half. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin put up fine numbers as he completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards. He did take five sacks — and the strength of the Ohio State offensive line is a question when facing elite defensive fronts (like the Hurricanes). But I still left that game thinking the Buckeyes left a lot on the table — as if they were sandbagging their best tactics for the playoffs. This is a team that won all four of their playoff games to take the title last season after losing twice in the regular season — so it could be that head coach Ryan Day has simply decided the season is a marathon where some things need to be held back. He is calling the offensive plays again after offensive coordinator Brian Hartline was named the new head coach for South Florida — although he is staying on as the offensive coordinator, doing double duty until the Ohio State season is done. Day had called plays until last season when he hired Chip Kelly as his OC. I have never been more impressed with Day than in their redemption victory against Michigan last month, both with his game management against the Wolverines and with his post-game comments. OK, admittedly, I wish he would stop using the word toughness when it was obvious — and the final step when embracing “humility” is simply being humble rather than wearing Dan Campbell’s “Grit” t-shirt or the frat boys wearing “Big Johnson” t-shirts on spring break. But Day has come a long way from strutting about “toughness” in calling out octogenarian Lou Holtz as he did just last season. I think the existential crisis Day encountered after losing to Michigan last season triggered the soul-searching he and his club needed to fully define who they wanted to be moving forward. They handled all four of their opponents in the college football playoff pretty easily en route to their national championship last season (+70 against the spread). His decision not to take back the play-calling on offense after Chip Kelly called the plays last year, but instead let Brian Hartline return to offensive coordinator with the added responsibility of calling the plays, was mature and best for the team — and I think it is appropriate he is taking on the play-calling now given Hartline’s new circumstances (and I think it’s good for Campbell to take accountability for his offense by taking over the play-calling, although I do note it is the second time he has done that which suggests he is hiring the wrong guys). Ohio State began this season with a 14-7 victory against Texas in that opening game showdown in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin’s first collegiate start —  but, whatever, the assignment for Day in that game was to secure the win rather than worry about style points. Sayin has been great while leading the Buckeyes to another 11 straight wins, all decided by at least 18 points. I am a believer in this quarterback who ended the regular season leading the FBS in on-target pass rate. In his 348 dropbacks, he had a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.4% —  and that mark only increases to 2.2% when under pressure. This dude is special — and he has two NFL-ready wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Sayin led the nation in QBR and completion percentage in the regular season. The Buckeyes also found their answer at running back with freshman Bo Jackson emerging in the second half of the season. Miami (FL) is only giving up 281.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who are not giving up more than 310 YPG. What is even more remarkable about this team is that they are probably more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 16 points in any game all season — and they lead the nation by surrendering only 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. I’m not ready to say that first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the best defensive mind in the world — but he has coordinated defenses that won Super Bowls. Middle linebacker Arvell Reese may be the first defensive player drafted next April in the NFL draft — and free safety Caleb Downs will soon be a back-to-back All-American. Ohio State has not surrendered more than 13 points in five straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last game as well as having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after not giving up more than 14 points in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Miami upset the Aggies despite only gaining 278 yards of offense and getting outgained by -48 net yards. They failed to generate a methodical drive of ten or more plays in that game — and that is not a good sign for an offense that lacks explosiveness. The Hurricanes rank in the bottom 15 in the FBS in Explosive Plays on standard downs. They benefited from playing a limited Texas A&M offense — and they enjoyed a + 2 net turnover margin in that game. But Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when playing on field turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 bowl games. 

FINAL TAKE: Needless to say, fading Miami head coach Mario Cristobal in a high-profile game is, how can I say, comfortable? His game management remains sketch. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 16 of their 19 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games under Day — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games on the road against teams with a winning record with Day as their head coach. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (258) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (233) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (234) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 23-13 loss against Western Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference championship game on December 6th. Fresno State (8-4) has won three of their last four games after their 41-14 win at San Jose State as a 3-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) typically engages in a challenging non-conference campaign to prepare for the rigors of Mid-American Conference play under head coach Chuck Martin. The RedHawks lost their opening three games of the season with losses at Wisconsin and Rutgers before returning home and playing UNLV tough in a three-point loss. Miami (OH) then won six of their eight games in conference play and won a three-way tie-breaker to earn the right to play for another MAC title. The Redhawks lost in the MAC championship game last season by 35 points against Ohio and then participated in the Arizona Bowl and pulled off a dominant 43-17 victory against another Mountain West Conference team, Colorado State. Martin will have his team ready to play as he takes bowl games very seriously as an opportunity for additional practice time and early preparation for next season. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 7 straight bowl games, with Martin their head coach in the last six of those games. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss on the road under Martin, including seven of those last contests. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a fellow MAC rival. Miami (OH) does have several players opt-out of this game after entering the transfer portal — including their leading wide receiver, Cam Perry, and their best defensive player, defensive end Adam Trick. But Martin sees the bowl game as the opportunity to develop the talent that has to step up now. After senior quarterback DeQaun Finn abruptly left the program in late November to prepare for the NFL draft, Martin has used both senior Henry Hesson and freshman Thomas Gotkowski under center. Gotkowski started in the MAC championship game but got benched for Hesson. That quarterback competition surely continued into the bowl practices. The strength of Martin’s team is on the other side of the ball, where they are holding their opponents to just 329.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 22.0 Points-Per-Game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games under Martin in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Fresno State will not have free safety Jayden Davis, who entered the transfer portal — but the interesting development is at quarterback. First-year head coach Matt Entz has listed freshman Carson Conklin as his starting quarterback, bumping senior E.J. Warner, the former transfer from Temple and Rice. While Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner’s son has shown flashes in his collegiate career, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12:11 this season is not very impressive. In four seasons, Warner has thrown 48 interceptions. It is not surprising that Entz would use this bowl game to give Conklin a tryout for the job next season. But the former Sacramento State transfer completed only 49% of his 96 pass attempts in the regular season with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. He is not mobile — and he averaged only 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. Despite Warner being too loose with the football, he did complete 69.4% of his passes and averaged 7.1 YPA. As it is, the Bulldogs ranked just 117th in Expected Points Added per Rush Attempt and 121st in EPA per Dropback in the passing game. They also ranked 108th in average third down yardage needed — and that could spell trouble against a Miami (OH) defense that ranked in Opponent EPA on Early Downs. The strength of this Fresno State team has been their defense, which held their opponents to 20.1 PPG — but they show cracks on third down as they rank 126th in Opponent Success Rate on third downs. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win against a fellow MWC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 23 takeaways, including five against the Spartans and enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after posting a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with two or more weeks between games. Their ability to force turnovers helped mask the fact that they got outgained by -11.5 net YPG when playing on the road. The RedHawks only turned the ball over 13 times this season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mid-American Conference has fared well so far in the bowl season. Western Michigan crushed the Sun Belt Conference champion, Kennesaw State, by 35 points. Ohio upset UNLV. Toledo only lost to Louisville by five points as a double-digit dog. The Mountain West Conference has struggled. Besides the Rebels' upset loss, Boise State lost by 28 points to Washington, and Utah State lost by 13 points to Washington State. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (233) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (218) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the California Golden Bears (217) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (8-4) has won five of their last seven games after their 27-7 victory against Wyoming as an 8.5-point favorite on November 29th. California (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 38-35 upset win against SMU as a 13.5-point underdog on November 29th. This game is a true home game for the Rainbow Warriors since their Clarence T.C. Ching Complex is the traditional host site for this holiday bowl game. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i should be very motivated to play hard tonight in their first appearance in their local bowl game since 2019, when they beat BYU by a 38-34 score. Wide receiver Jackson Harris is in the transfer portal after catching 12 touchdown passes — but slot receiver Pofele Ashlock remains the go-to target for freshman quarterback Micah Alejado. Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele gets more of the national attention as a potential future NFL draft pick — but this is an opportunity for Alejado to draw some national attention with this game owning a monopoly regarding the major sports today. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 straight games at home after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Hawai’i has developed into a very tough out when playing at home under head coach Timmy Chang, a former quarterback for this team. They have won and covered the point spread in six of their seven home games this season. They are outgaining their opponents by +103.9 net Yards-Per-Game at home, which is resulting in them outscoring their guests by +15.4 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record. Chang has brought back the run-and-shoot passing attack that he thrived on under former head coach June Jones, giving this program a unique identity. But don’t sleep on this Hawai’i defense that is holding their opponents to just 288.0 total YPG, which is resulting in 15.0 PPG when playing at home. California fired head coach Justin Wilcox after they lost their rivalry game to Stanford. Quarterbacks coach Nick Rolovich was named the interim head coach — he was a former head coach at both Hawai’i and Washington State — and he guided the team to the upset victory against the Mustangs to end their regular season. But Rolovich’s teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog. His teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games on the road with the Toal set in the 49.5-56 point range. Since then, Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has been named the next Cal head coach. Rolovich will stay on as the quarterbacks coach. The motivation level for this team on their holiday trip to Hawai’i is in question — and there is a long line of names, even this afternoon, that have the questionable designation on the injured list. The Golden Bears upset SMU despite getting outgained by 25 net yards and surrendering 447 yards in that game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by six points or less. The Golden Bears offense can get itself into trouble since they rank 114th in Expected Points Added per Play on 1st and 2nd downs and then 86th in Success Rate on 3rd and 4th downs. They were outscored by -1.7 PPG and outgained by -11.1 net YPG this season — and on the road, they got outscored by -6.2 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i should have success moving the football tonight. Cal is a bottom-20 tackling unit — and losing Wilcox last month does not help their defense because he is a well-respected defensive mind. The Rainbow Warrior ranks sixth in forcing missed tackles — and they rank 35th in the nation in Success Rate on 3rd and 4th downs. And while the Golden Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.6% of their passes — and Hawai’i has won seven of their last 11 games against pass defenses that allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their passes. The Rainbow Warriors should be able to get their run-and-shoot passing attack going. 10* CFB California-Hawai’i ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (218) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the California Golden Bears (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (296) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (295) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won four games in a row after their 17-13 victory against LSU as a 12-point favorite on November 29th. Alabama (10-3) saw their two game winning streak snapped in their 28-7 loss against Georgia as a 1-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 6th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): On my initial glance, I didn’t love fading an Alabama team coming off an upset loss and motivated to avenge a loss last month to their opponent. I address the revenge angle in my Final Take. I am wary that this is a proverbial “buy-low” spot on the Crimson Tide — especially when considering they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after an upset loss under head coach Kalen DeBoer. On the other hand, Alabama has underachieved ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s pregame predictive metrics in four of their last six games — and they have only covered the point spread twice in those six contests. But are we just ignoring canaries in the coal mine? And do the normal bounce-back motivations for teams in this spot get corrupted by the long shadow on DeBoer coming from Ann Arbor? If the Tide loses this game, does DeBoer defect to take the Michigan job in the next week? Will the Alabama administration be happy to see him go? The loss against the Bulldogs was the fifth time in DeBoer’s two-year tenure that the Crimson Tide lost by at least 14 points. Under Nick Saban, Alabama lost only three times by 14 or more points in his 139 games. It’s bad vibes — making it even more difficult to overcome some fundamental problems with this football. The Tide can’t run the ball — they rank 131st in Rush Success Rate. They no longer have an endless supply of future NFL players rushing the passer — they have registered only two sacks in their last two games. The injury to defensive end L.T. Overton is not helping. After a strong start to the season, junior quarterback Ty Simpson is in a funk (and there are whispers he is playing through an injury). Half of his Turnover Worthy Plays this season have taken place in his last four games. His wide receivers have dropped 26 of his passes — including eight drops in their last two games. Sophomore Ryan Williams has not had the expected breakout season. And the Alabama special teams are not good at all — they rank 113th in Connelly’s SP+ rankings. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games played on grass. They have played five Unders in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl/playoff games. And in their last 8 bowl games, the underdog has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Oklahoma has a significant situational edge tonight with an extra week to rest for this contest — and the extra time to recover allows for their star defensive end R. Mason Thomas to return from injury after being out since November 1st. Head coach Brent Venables is one of the best defensive minds in college football — and he benefits from calling plays against Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb once already. And it is also another three weeks for quarterback John Mateer to rest the hand injury he played through in the second half of the season. The best unit on the field is the Sooners’ defense that ranks second in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. Their run defense leads the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate and Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They ranked third in Havoc Rate and registered 42 sacks. At home, they are holding their guests to 255.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. They are outgaining their guests by +111.0 net YPG and outscoring them by +14.4 PPG. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home when favored. While they endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Tigers, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Tide are outscoring their opponents by +13.8 net PPG, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents who outscore their opponents by +10 or more PPG. And don’t underestimate the edge the Sooners enjoy in special teams in this rematch. Oklahoma ranks 21st in SP+ for special teams — and they probably have the best placekicker in the nation, Tate Sandell. 

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I am dismissing the revenge angle the Crimson Tide have in this game. The Sooners are not going to take this rematch lightly since they got outgained by -196 net yards. While many observers find those numbers as evidence that Oklahoma was the far inferior team — I give some benefit of the doubt to Venables with game management since they were already benefiting from a +3 net turnover margin. Venables’ Sooners upset DeBoer’s Alabama team last year by a 24-3 score despite being a 14-point underdog. Alabama is 2-2 ATS in their four revenge games since DeBoer took over last season. The only revenge opportunity in the playoffs last year was when Ohio State got the chance to avenge their regular season loss against Oregon — and while they thumped the Ducks in that quarterfinals showdown, that was on a neutral field at the Rose Bowl. Exacting revenge in a hostile environment in a virtual pick ‘em game is an entirely different matter. The Crimson Tide were outgained by -28.6 net YPG when playing on the road this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games on the road in the DeBoer era. 10* CFB Alabama-Oklahoma ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (296) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (120) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (119) in the Big Ten championship game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-0) overcame their white whale last Saturday in their 27-9 victory on the road against Michigan as a 9-point favorite. Indiana (12-0) continued their unbeaten season in their 56-3 win against Purdue as a 28-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I have never been more impressed with Ohio State head coach Ryan Day last Saturday, both with his game management against the Wolverines and with his post-game comments. OK, admittedly, I wish he would stop using the word toughness when it was obvious — and the final step when embracing “humility” is simply being humble rather than wearing Dan Campbell’s “Grit” t-shirt or the frat boys wearing “Big Johnson” t-shirts on spring break. But Day has come a long way from strutting about “toughness” in calling out octogenarian Lou Holtz as he did just last season. I think the existential crisis Day encountered after losing to Michigan last season triggered the soul-searching he and his club needed to fully define who they wanted to be moving forward. They handled all four of their opponents in the college football playoff pretty easily en route to their national championship last season (+70 against the spread). His decision not to take back the play-calling on offense after Chip Kelly called the plays last year, but instead let Brian Hartline return to offensive coordinator with the added responsibility of calling the plays, was mature and best for the team. Day needs to run the team, not the offense. And the Buckeyes are now 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games since that upset loss to the Wolverines last season. They began this season with a 14-7 victory against Texas in that opening game showdown in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin’s first collegiate start —  but, whatever, the assignment for Day in that game was to secure the win rather than worry about style points. Now the Longhorns are sweating out making the college football playoff, while Day was able to gradually build Sayin’s confidence while knowing they could lose twice and still make the playoff. And Sayin has been great while leading the Buckeyes to another 11 straight wins, all decided by at least 18 points. Ohio State experienced the worst start imaginable against their arch rivals last week. Michigan scored a field goal on their first drive and then picked off Sayin on his first pass. The snow was falling in Ann Arbor. The circumstances were in place for yet another Buckeyes choke job. Instead, the outstanding Ohio State defense held the Wolverines to a field goal — and then the Buckeyes proceeded to outscore Michigan by a decisive 27-3 margin the rest of the way. Sayin was not fazed as he completed 19 of his 26 passes for 244 yards with three touchdowns. He can win the Heisman Trophy with a big game, as he currently leads the FBS in on-target pass rate. In his 348 dropbacks, he has a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.4% —  and that mark only increases to 2.2% when under pressure. This dude is special — and he has two NFL-ready wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Sayin leads the nation in QBR and completion percentage — and he possesses a 66% success rate in the passing game against Cover-2 pass coverages, which is the Hoosiers’ preferred look. The Buckeyes have also found their answer at running back with freshman Bo Jackson emerging in the second half of the season. Indiana is only giving up 251.8 total Yards-Per-Game — but Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who are not giving up more than 310 YPG. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. What is even more remarkable about this team is that they are probably more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 16 points in any game all season — and they lead the nation by surrendering only 3.77 Yards-Per-Play. I’m not ready to say that first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the best defensive mind in the world — but he has coordinated defenses that won Super Bowls. It’s just a big edge over the Hoosiers’ offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, who was coordinating the James Madison offense only two years ago. Middle linebacker Arvell Reese may be the first defensive player drafted next April in the NFL draft — and free safety Caleb Downs will soon be a back-to-back All-American. Ohio State has not surrendered more than 10 points in four straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last game as well as having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after not giving up more than 14 points in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Regarding Indiana, one has to be impressed by what head coach Curt Cignetti has done in his two seasons in Bloomington. But I’m not ready to buy that the Hoosiers are on the elite level of teams like the Buckeyes. They only beat Iowa on the road by a 20-15 score. They survived a 27-24 scare at Penn State, playing without quarterback Drew Allar — and Ohio State beat the Nittany Lions by 24 points. Indiana’s signature win was against Oregon — but, frankly, I’m not sure about the Ducks at this point either. Cignetti has thrived off the portal — but the Buckeyes' high school recruiting is elite before they poach players to fill specific roster needs in the portal. Former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza may have shorter odds to win the Heisman right now versus Sayin — but six of his nine turnover-worthy plays have taken place in his last four games. Nine of the 15 sacks he has taken have also taken place in his last four contests. Against Oregon, he only passed 215 yards after completing 20 of 31 passes. The NFL scouts I pay attention to are not gushing over his prospects at the next level. The Buckeyes are scoring 37.0 PPG — and the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams scoring 31 or more PPG since Cignetti took over last year. Indiana is just 1-2 ATS in their three games as an underdog under Cignetti and they did not cover the point spread in their playoff last year in their 27-17 loss at Notre Dame. Weather was an issue in their 38-15 loss at Ohio State last year — but they did get outgained by -165 net yards. I’m just not buying that beating this season’s Origin team proves the Hoosiers have arrived to keep things close with Ohio State, finally.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher since Cignetti took over. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 24 of their 37 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games since Day took over, including 12 of those last 13 contests. And while the Hoosiers are outscoring their opponents by +33.4 net PPG this season, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (120) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (109) in the Mountain West Conference championship game. THE SITUATION: Boise State (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 25-24 win at Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. UNLV (10-2) has won four games in a row after their 42-17 victory at Nevada as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels may have only lost twice this season, but a deeper look at their resume reveals some concerning elements. They began their season by beating Idaho State by only a touchdown. They then beat Sam Houston and were fortunate to catch UCLA when that program hit rock bottom and fired their head coach. They then escaped on the road against Miami (OH) by a field goal despite the RedHawks losing starting quarterback DeQuan Finn to injury midway through that game — and Miami (OH) was driving for a potential winning or tying score before fumbling the ball away in the red zone late in that game. Then, in a hail storm in Wyoming, they returned to blocked punts for a touchdown to beat the Cowboys by 14 points despite getting outgained by 101 yards. They returned home to beat Air Force by a field goal despite getting outgained again by surrendering 602 yards of offense. At 6-0, they traveled to Albertson’s Stadium to face this Broncos team — and they got blown out by a 56-31 score (more on that game below). They then returned home, where they lost to New Mexico by five points. UNLV has since won four games in a row with their defense playing better by only giving up 16 Points-Per-Game — but Colorado State, Utah State, Hawai’i, and then the Wolf Pack last week combined for just a 12-20 record in conference play. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival. It is big games like this that are why the UNLV administration has to get out their checkbooks to lure Dan Mullen away from the cushy ESPN studios. But Mullen developed a reputation for not being able to deliver in big games in his previous stint at Florida. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 11 games in December in his head coaching career. His teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games on the road with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of the 4 contests this season against teams with a winning record. The UNLV defense is the weak link in this game — that unit ranks outside the top 100 in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent Explosive Plays Allowed. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 straight games against conference rivals following a victory by seven points or less. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. And while they did not force a turnover last week against the Aggies, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games under head coach Spencer Danielson after not forcing a turnover in their previous game. The offense gets starting quarterback Maddux Madsen back from the ankle injury suffered at the beginning of November. He passed for 253 yards with four touchdowns in the earlier game against UNLV this season. The Broncos are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who average 425 or more YPG. And while UNLV averages 463.3 total YPG and 37.2 PPG, Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams scoring 34.0 PPG, and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams that are averaging 425 or more YPG. At home, the Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +19.3 PPG and outgaining them by +175.5 net YPG due to their stingy defense that is holding their guests to 290.0 YPG and 22.5 PPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home against Mountain West Conference rivals.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV does have the revenge angle — but teams playing with same-season revenge in conference championship games are a flat 29-29 ATS in those last 58 situations. The Rebels were in a revenge spot in last year’s MWC championship game after a 29-24 loss in Las Vegas in the regular season — but they lost the rematch by a 21-7 score as a 4-point underdog. The Broncos own the Rebels with nine straight victories against them — and UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against them despite the revenge motivation. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (384) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (383). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (9-2) has won three games in a row after their 17-6 victory against Missouri as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (7-4) has won two games in a row after their 13-10 victory against Western Kentucky as a 24.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma is in a strange spot in the college football playoff race — they are probably on the outside looking in with losses against a three-loss Texas team and Ole Miss. But that probably removes the pressure that this team faces in this final regular season game at home. Instead, they can attempt to put up some style points — and, heck, maybe their victory against Michigan and Alabama will look better by the end of the day, especially if they put up a big number against this reeling Tigers team. So, I like the situational spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Brent Venables has assembled one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Play and lead the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Against the run, Oklahoma ranks second in the nation in Opponent EPA per Rush and leads the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Against the pass, they rank 13th in both Opponent EPA per Dropback and Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. At home, they are holding their guests to just 265.5. total Yards-Per-Game and 12.2. Points-Per-Game. The offensive numbers are not as good, but quarterback John Mateer has been playing through injuries in the back half of the season. He is making strides every week. Against the Tigers, he threw two touchdown passes without an interception and added 60 yards on the ground on 18 carries. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home in November. LSU only gained 328 yards last week against the Hilltoppers despite controlling the time of possession for 35:54 minutes in that game. Sophomore quarterback Michael Van Buren, Jr. was under center in that game, given the abdominal injury to Grant Nussmeier — he completed 25 of 42 passes for just 202 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception. The Sooners present a much bigger challenge than the Western Kentucky defense did last week — and Nussmeier is not expected to play. This is a team in flux since head coach Brian Kelly was let go last month. Running backs coach (and former UTSA head coach) Frank Wilson is serving as the interim head coach — but everyone is waiting with bated breath regarding Lane Kiffin’s future head coaching plans, which he has said he will not make clear today. Who knows if the administration has already decided to bypass playing in a bowl game under these circumstances — this could be their lame duck last game of the season. The vibes are not the best. LSU’s offense only generates 22.6 PPG — and they are scoring -7.1 PPG below their season defensive average even before Van Buren took over the offense. On the road, the Tigers are only generating 292.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.3 PPG. They are getting outscored by -4.0 net PPG on the road while getting outgained by -86.2 net YPG in those contests. Their offense ranks 107th in EPA per Play and 109th in Success Rate. The problem was that Nussmeier might have been their best player on that side of the ball. LSU ranks 120th in EPA per Rush and 129th in Rush Success Rate. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. 

FINAL TAKE: The Sooners will have a little extra motivation to avenge a 37-17 loss at LSU as a 6-point underdog last year on November 30th. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher, including six of those seven games played on the road. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (384) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Georgia (10-1) has won seven games in a row after their 35-3 victory at home against Charlotte as a 42.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was trailing the Panthers by a 28-14 score, but was driving to score a touchdown to make it a one-possession game in the third quarter. But senior quarterback Haynes King made a costly mistake by throwing an interception at the goal line that was returned for a touchdown and represented a 14-point swing in the game. After starting the season with eight straight victories, losses at NC State and then last week to Pittsburgh mean that the Yellow Jackets need some help to reach the ACC championship game. But pulling off an upset against the Bulldogs would certainly help a lot in making the case that Georgia Tech should make the college football playoff. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing 37 or more points. And while Georgia Tech suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Panthers, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. King makes the Yellow Jackets dangerous in this game — he is completing 71.8% of his passes and leads an offense that ranks in the top 15 in the FBS in both Expected Points Added per Dropback and Pass Success rate. This is not the Georgia defense we are used to seeing. While they are very good at stopping the run, they rank just 78th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Their secondary is mediocre, ranking just 56th in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage grading scale. But the biggest problem is their pass rush, which PFF grades out as the 120th worst in the nation. When King has operated in a clean pocket this season, he has passed for almost 2000 yards with a 9.2 Yards-Per-Attempt average — and he has 11 Big Time Throws and zero Turnover Worthy Plays when not facing pressure. The Georgia Tech defense is not great and the Bulldogs do generate 431.0 Yards-Per-Game — but the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 9 straight games against teams who average 425 or more YPG. Georgia is in a strange spot right now. They need either Texas A&M or Alabama to lose to then earn the right to play in the SEC championship game. They are in a good position to earn one of the top four seeds in the college football playoffs and a bye in the first round. But if the Bulldogs get upset this afternoon and then lose in the SEC championship game, are we sure they still make the playoffs? This game can only hurt their cause. As it is, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in the last three meetings between these two teams — and the last two games have been decided by eight points or less. King almost led Georgia Tech to an upset victory last year as a 17.5-point underdog before Georgia survived in double-overtime by a 44-42 score. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning 75% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). THE SITUATION: Oregon (9-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-13 win against Minnesota as a 27-point favorite last Friday. USC (8-2) has won three games in a row after a 26-21 victory against Iowa as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans escaped their game with the Hawkeyes despite a post-game win expectancy of just 45%. They remain alive for the College Football Playoff — but this is a must-win game, as is their traditional showdown with UCLA next week. Responding positively to pressure has not been a strength of this football team under fourth-year head coach Lincoln Riley (or under any USC head coach since Pete Carroll) — and consistency has been a particular problem since Riley took over. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning here or more games in a row. USC comes into this game at less than full strength. Junior running back Waymond Jordan remains out — but freshmen King Miller has been a revelation. But the loss of strong safety Bishop Fitzgerald from an injury last week, which will keep him out, really hurts. The Trojans' defense is improved from last year, but that unit remains below average when it comes to potential playoff teams. Their defense ranks 50th in Opponent Expected Points per Play and 79th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They particularly struggle in stopping the run, where they rank 101st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate — and that plays right into Oregon’s strength on offense, detailed below. The hope is that the explosive USC offense that generates 490.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 38.2 Points-Per-Game which simply puts more points on the scoreboard — but ranking 125th in starting field position does them no favors against the best defense they have played all season. The Trojans' offense is much better at home, where they are scoring 45 PPG — but on the road, that mark drops by almost 17 PPG to a 27.5 PPG mark. Their defense also surrenders -46.5 net YPG versus their season average when on the road. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. And while they seem most comfortable playing on the Bermuda grass at home in the LA Coliseum, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on field turf like what they will experience at Autzen Stadium. Oregon should continue to build off their momentum in this contest. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home after a victory by 28 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 18 of their 27 games since Dan Lanning took over as their head coach after winning three or more games in a row. Oregon boasts one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank second in the FBS by holding their opponents to 3.99 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 8th in Opponent EPA per Play. USC wants to throw the ball with quarterback Jayden Maiava — but the Ducks lead the nation by limiting their opponents to just 4.9 passing Yards-Per-Attempt. They also rank second in Opponent EPA per Dropback and sixth in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Oregon only gives up 127.3 passing YPG — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who are not giving up more than 150 passing YPG. And while the Ducks are holding their opponents to only 235.4 total YPG this season, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are not giving up more than 350 YPG. On the other side of the ball, it all starts with Oregon’s ground game with three capable running backs that have them leading the nation in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in EPA per Rush. Now they face a Trojans' defense that just let Iowa run the ball 33 times for 183 rushing yards while enjoying a success rate of 67% on those rushes. At home, the Ducks are outgaining their opponents by +252.6 net YPG and outscoring them by +29.8 PPG. Take your pick on whether their 42.0 PPG/473.3 YPG on offense or their 12.2 PPG/220.7 YPG on defense at home is gaudier. Oregon has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected higher-scoring games with the total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: It is a testament to fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning that his football team’s only losses in the last two seasons were either to the eventual national champion or a team that reached the championship game (two losses to Washington two seasons ago) — and their lone loss this season was against Indiana that is one of the three remaining unbeaten teams in college football. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their contests. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). THE SITUATION:  FSU (4-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-14 win against Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. NC State (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 41-7 loss at Miami (FL) as a 14.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: FSU looks good on the laptops, which is why the betting public has pushed them up to laying close to a touchdown on the road in this contest. A few things about those metrics. While they may be generating 6.8 Yards-Play this season, that production drops a full yard to 5.8 YPP when on the road — more on the disparate home/road splits below. Second, they are only generating 4.8 YPP in their three games this month as they embark on another fade in performance under head coach Mike Norvell. Bettors still remember their 14-point win at home against Alabama to begin the season (against a Kalen DeBoer squad that has its own home/road split issues). They then got to pad their stats against East Texas A&M and Kent State before embarking in conference play, where they promptly lost four games in a row. It is telling that FSU has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their 48 games under Norvell after the first month of the season. Norvell is a fugazi — and he has made this program completely in his image. He is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. He is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. I certainly thought Florida State would be better this year after their collapse to 2-10 last year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos, who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College, where head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility, as last season demonstrated. So the misfit toys pulled off a big upset against the Crimson Tide — and they immediately bought the hype that they were poised to make the college football playoffs again. And then played Virginia to begin a four-game losing streak that culminated in a loss at Stanford. Stanford? Stanford! But here we go again, beating Wake Forest and the Hokies in between a loss at Clemson (but it’s so hard to win in Death Valley!) — and bettors are buying the hype again, at least for tonight, since they need this win to become bowl eligible. But because the only culture Norvell has established is as a frontrunner with zero resiliency when the going gets tough for the misfit toys, they are rarely consistent. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a fellow ACC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, including five of those six games played on the road. And the moment things begin to get tough, they fold — as demonstrated by Florida State’s 4-11 record in one-score games since Norvell took over this program — including an 0-4 mark this season. This team has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now FSU goes on the road again, where they are winless in three games with an average losing margin of -9.7 Points-Per-Game. Castellanos is inconsistent. He is completing 63.0% of his passes with a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. But in his three games on the road, he is only completing 53.4% of his passes with a 7.2 YPA, just two touchdown passes, and three interceptions. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against fellow ACC rivals. North Carolina State returns home after playing three of their last four games on the road. Yes, their lone victory during that stretch was their one game at home at Carter-Finley Stadium, where they upset Georgia Tech by a 48-36 score as a 4.5-point underdog. They also beat Virginia at home, 35-31. Their bad double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and the Hurricanes last week were all on the road. At home, the Wolfpack have a 4-1 record with an average winning margin of +13.4 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 game after a straight-up win against an ACC rival. There is no question that their defense has taken a step back since defensive coordinator Tony Gibson left to take the head coaching job at Marshall. But at least they are holding their guests to 23.4 PPG when playing at home. The biggest problem is their pass defense, which ranks 125th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. But their run defense is good — and they rank eighth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This matches up well with the Seminoles since it will likely put the pressure on Castellanos to beat them with his arm. FSU ranks 11th in Rushing Success Rate but only 58th in Passing Success Rate. Florida State’s defense is mediocre — they rank 69th in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed and 51st in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. NC State has a good quarterback, sophomore C.J. Bailey, who has thrown for over 2500 yards with 19 touchdowns. NC State ranks 19th in EPA per Dropback and 38th in Pass Success Rate. Bailey should have success against this FSU defense that ranks 65th in Opponent EPA per Dropback and 70th in Opponent Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (406) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (405). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (7-2) has won two straight games after their 35-16 win against New Mexico State as a 7.5-point favorite on November 1st. Middle Tennessee (1-8) has lost six games in a row after their 56-30 loss at home against FIU in a pick ‘em contest last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton made a change at quarterback a month ago after suffering their first loss in Conference USA play in a 25-6 loss against FIU. Abilene Christian transfer Maverick McIvor was dealing with a nagging shoulder injury — and the offense was not taking off under his guidance. Redshirt freshman Rodney Tisdale took over the next week and he led the team to a 28-27 upset win in overtime on the road against Louisiana Tech as a 5-point underdog. The next week, Tisdale completed 30 of 38 passes for 301 yards with four touchdowns in the blowout win against the Aggies. Tisdale is completing 73.7% of his passes with six touchdowns and only two interceptions. He is averaging a healthy 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is more of threat running the ball than McIvor by already gaining 113 yards on 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground. Now after their bye week, Helton should have his team buttoned and ready to roll the rest of the season with their chances still alive to return to the Conference USA championship game. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when getting at least two weeks to rest and prepare under Helton. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a victory against a conference rival at home — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a win by 17 or more points. And while the Hilltoppers outgained New Mexico State by +253 net yards, the have then covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games at home in Heltons seven years there after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. Enduring such turnover makes it so difficult to remain consistently competitive — yet he is doing it once again and the extra week of practice along with the self-audit the bye week affords should reap dividends. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. His teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. But these new players are mostly inexperienced as well: while returning players account for 50 combined games started, the new players only have 68 combined starts amongst them. Yet that side of the ball has been a revelation. The Hilltoppers rank 36th in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. They also rank 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed with a balanced unit that ranks 21st in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 31st in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. At home, Western Kentucky is holding their opponents to just 328.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.4 Points-Per-Game. If Helton can get his offense clicking at another level now, watch out with this defense — and the Blue Raiders are an ideal foil. Middle Tennessee ranks 129th in Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They are surrendering 8.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games under Helton against teams who give up 8.0 or more YPA. Middle Tennessee is playing hard and mostly staying competitive in the second season under head coach Derek Mason. They have tough luck one-possession losses against Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Delaware. But morale may be wearing thin after that 26-point loss at home in a very winnable game against the Golden Panthers in what is now a lost season. The problem now is that Mason has never demonstrated much of an ability to get his team to rebound from adversity. The Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games with Mason after a loss at home against a fellow Conference USA opponent — and Mason’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their 24 games after a loss at home to a conference rival, going back to his time at Vanderbilt. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games after a loss at home by 14 or more points under Mason — and that just continues the disturbing trend where his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their 23 games after a loss at home by 14 or more points. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 35 games after surrendering 37 or more points, which is not a great endorsement for his chops as a defensive head coach. The Blue Raiders struggled in their first season under Mason. They finished with a 3-9 record — and it could have been worse since they won three of the four games they played that were decided by one scoring possession. They got outscored by a 41-17 margin in their nine losses. The hope was that this year’s team would have more continuity than many of their Conference USA rivals. Mason is trying to build this program patiently — and his commitment to player development should eventually produce improvements on both sides of the ball. But it is not happening in his second year with the program. His side of the ball on defense ranks 118th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent EPA per Play Allowed. They are giving up 383.8 total YPG, which is resulting in 32.0 PPG. The offense is middling by ranking 69th in Success Rate and 79th in EPA per Play — but they are too one-dimensional given their ground game that ranks 124th in EPA per Rush. They are only generating 332.4 total YPG — and their 17.0 PPG scoring average on the road is a -3.1 below their meager season average. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games as an underdog under Mason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games in November since he took over. 

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has won six games in a row in this rivalry — and the last four victories have all been by at least 18 points. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams not winning 25% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games under Helton when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (406) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (333) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (334). THE SITUATION: Marshall (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 35-23 loss at home against James Madison as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. Georgia State (1-8) has lost six games in a row after their 40-27 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Considering the circumstances that rookie head coach Dell McGee inherited last year, the Panthers’ season was a moderate success. The Panthers’ previous head coach, Shawn Elliott, left to take the linebackers coaching job (and back with his family) at South Carolina two days into spring practice last year. Predictably, there was a mass exodus of players entering the transfer portal after spring practice. But McGee led Georgia State to an upset victory against Vanderbilt in September. The Panthers finished 3-9 last year with only one victory in their eight games in the Sun Belt Conference, but they were only outgained by -47 net Yards-Per-Game against those conference opponents. The program was hit hard once again in the transfer portal with nearly 40 players exiting the team, but perhaps McGee was fine with that exodus since he is committed to revamping the roster. He was active in the transfer portal, bringing in a wide range of players from the SEC to FCS programs to the junior college ranks. McGee also brought in one of the best high school recruiting classes of all the Group of Five programs with the benefit of a full offseason. The defense needs to improve after they surrendered 418.7 total Yards-Per-Game and 33.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 113th and 116th in the nation last season. McGee replaced both coordinators with more time to investigate potential candidates. The defense is now run by Travis Pearson, who is a veteran who coached cornerbacks at Coastal Carolina the last three seasons and previously was the DC for South Alabama a decade ago. He tapped former Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson to take over the offense. He has multiple stints in the NFL and in college as an offensive coordinator. The roster was almost entirely new, but McGee has assembled an intriguing coaching staff and seems committed to developing this program the right way. But the results on the field are indicating that the turnover everywhere was too much. The Panthers have not beaten an FBS opponent with their only victory being against Murray State. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss against a fellow Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after allowing 37 or more points. Their defense remains the primary problem as they are surrendering 457.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 40.7 Points-Per-Game. Ranking 130th in Opponent Starting Field Position is not helping their defensive cause. And then they rank 135th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed and 127th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Panthers defense has been equal opportunity offenders against the run and the pass. They rank 136th in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 127th in Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed and Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Georgia State returns home where they are only scoring 22.2 PPG. Ranking 116th in Average Starting Field Position has contributed to their challenges in scoring points. Marshall is having a solid season, given the circumstances they dealt with in the offseason. The Thundering Herd enjoyed their best season in head coach Charles Huff’s four years with the program as they finished a 10-2 campaign by crushing UL-Louisiana on the road by a 31-3 score to win the Sun Belt Conference championship game. But within the next week, Huff left the program to take over at Southern Mississippi, with many of his Marshall players entering the transfer portal to join him. When the dust settled, 47 players left the program in the offseason. The Marshall administration seemed content to let Huff leave the program in what appeared to be a contentious relationship. They quickly tapped North Carolina State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson as their next head coach. He brought in 62 players in the portal. Establishing a new culture and finding team chemistry will be a challenge for this program, which has more continuity at Southern Mississippi. But Gibson is well-respected in coaching circles, and he should be given the time to build this program in his image. With upset victories against Old Dominion and Texas State last month, Gibson is doing a fine job — and getting this team to a bowl game would be a minor miracle. Taking care of business this afternoon gets them one win away. Marshall has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They should get plenty of scoring opportunities against this bad Panthers defense — especially since they rank third in the FBS in Starting Field Position. The Thundering Herd has one of the best rush defenses in the nation. They rank 12th in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and 14th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed. Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in November. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in an expected high-scoring game with the Total set from 56.5 to 63. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State lacks much of any home-field advantage playing at Paulson Stadium, formerly Turner Field, the home field of the Atlanta Braves before they bolted for the suburbs. The Panthers have only had a football program for just over a decade, so finding a fan base in the crowded sports environment in Atlanta has been a chore — and attending games on a Saturday has not become a necessary tradition for the student base at a school that did not even have a central campus before the 1996 Olympics. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Marshall Thundering Herd (333) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (308) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (307). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (5-4) had won five games in a row before their 24-20 loss at Ohio as a 2.5-point underdog last Tuesday. Toledo (5-4) has won two of their last three games after their 42-3 victory as a 16.5-point favorite against Northern Illinois last Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The RedHawks lost a tough one last week to their arch-rival Bobcats. Giving up a fourth quarter 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown was the key momentum swing after Miami (OH) had just taken the lead — and the RedHawks had the ball late after Ohio reclaimed the lead with just over two minutes left in the game, but quarterback DeQuan Finn got picked off to end the game. An excruciating face-masking penalty on a third-and-14 play kept the Bobcats’ eventual game-winning drive alive as well. But Miami (OH) remains alive to reach the MAC championship game as they began the week in a four-way tie for first place in the conference (and Ohio’s loss last night ensures that they control their fate). The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games under head coach Chuck Martin after a loss to a fellow MAC rival. It has been a typical season for this team in Martin’s 13th year running the program. Miami (OH) endured a difficult non-conference schedule with challenging games against Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UNLV. But those contests prepared the RedHawks to win their first five games in conference play before last week. In their last seven games, they are scoring 30.1 Points-Per-Game and surrendering just 19.0 PPG. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 20 points. The Miami (OH) defense ranks 13th in the nation with 26 sacks — and they are holding conference opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The RedHawks return home, where they are generating 432.5 total Yards-Per-Game, which is resulting in 36.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +14.5 PPG and outgaining them by +96.5 net YPG. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in conference play. Toledo has been remarkably consistently inconsistent under head coach Jason Candle. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games, a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a fellow MAC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home after a win by 28 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games away from home after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Much of the problem is how worse the team plays away from the Glass Bowl. Toledo has a 5-0 record at home this season with an average winning margin of +40.0 PPG. But the Rockets are winless on the road, where they are getting outscored by -8.7 PPG due to an offense that is scoring 14.8 PPG and averaging just 343.3 total YPG. Toledo last played on the road two weeks ago in a depressing 28-7 loss at Washington State. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road against conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 12 games on the road when favored. Remember, Toledo has suffered 18 upset losses since 2021 with Candle at the helm.

FINAL TAKE: The RedHawks will have the extra motivation of wanting to avenge their 30-20 loss at Toledo on October 5th last season — and Finn has extra skin in this game, having been a three-year starter for the Rockets before transferring to Baylor for one season last year. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (308) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (202) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (201). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (2-7) has won two games in a row after their 10-7 upset victory at home against Washington State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Sam Houston (0-8) remains winless this season after their 55-14 loss at Louisiana Tech as a 17-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon State is playing much better since they fired second-year head coach Trent Bray and replaced him with Robb Alley as their interim head coach. Alley is a veteran who had success as the head coach at Idaho two decades ago before most recently serving as the defensive coordinator at Central Michigan. He appears to have cleaned many things up since taking over on October 12th — especially on the defensive side of the football, which is his area of expertise. Oregon State held Lafayette to only 269 yards on 3.8 Yards-Per-Play three weeks ago. It was tough to read too much into that game against an FCS opponent. But after a bye week, they limited Washington State to just 271 yards on 4.6 YPP in their upset victory last week. This program has been in a dead zone since the Pac-12 broke up two years ago. But in hindsight, elevating Bray from defensive coordinator to head coach prior to last season may have been a short-sighted decision. With 12 starters back from last year’s team that finished 5-7, the Beavers should have been seeing better results. They did suffer one-possession losses against Houston and Appalachian State. They are only getting outgained by -33.8 net Yards-Per-Game. But a 25-point loss at home against Wake Forest last month was the final straw. Their -7 net turnover margin is not helping matters. Alley has this team playing sound football, leaning on their defense and running game. I don’t endorse a team that only gained 184 yards of offense last week lightly. But FBS teams coming off a win in conference play despite failing to gain at least 250 yards of offense have then covered the point spread in 80 of those next 137 games. In Alley’s head coaching career, his teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games following an upset loss. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games following a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after not allowing more than 14 points. And in their last 43 games at home at Reser Stadium, they have covered the point spread in 30 of those contests. They have the perfect foil in Sam Houston, who may very well be the worst team of all the 136 teams in the FBS. The Bearkats surrendered 646 yards last week in their loss to the Bulldogs. Even this meager Beavers offense should find success against this defense that ranks 122nd in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play and 133rd in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Sam Houston ranks 123rd in EPA per Play on offense and 107th in Success Rate on offense. They have been outscored by at least 17 points in seven of their eight losses — so this is a great “get right” game for Oregon State. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler took the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherited five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year — but it has become clear that he does not have the players to match his preferred system. The defense presented a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickel backs at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looked to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences were unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Roster depth is another problem for Longo — and the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Oregon State Beavers (202) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (107) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (108). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak with a 21-7 victory as a 6.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago on October 25th. Toledo (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-7 loss at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: We were on the Cardinals two Saturdays ago — and there was a chance for a back door cover watching the game on ESPN+ as the game ended with Ball State failing to score a touchdown after several meager attempts on the one-yard line (granted, we would have needed the so-called “Analytics Play” that commits a logical fallacy by going for two points after scoring a touchdown when trailing by 14 points to then cover the +6.5/+7 point spread). I underestimated how good this Huskies defense is when endorsing Ball State in that game. They rank in the top 35 in the nation by holding their opponents to only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they have been an unreliable favorite under head coach Thomas Hammock, they have also been very reliable road underdogs that have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog. The Huskies come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment — but they did outgain their opponents by +73 net Yards-Per-Game. They ended their season by beating Fresno State in double overtime by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois was planning to move away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference — but Hammock called an audible with that plan as the offense is back to being run-first and playing at a slow tempo. That approach is helping keep the defense off the field for new coordinator Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. Toledo suffered their 18th upset loss since 2021 under head coach Jason Candle two Saturdays ago in a game where they only gained 299 yards of offense. The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent in the nine years with Candle running things. On the one hand, Candle usually has the most talented team in the Mid-American Conference. But Toledo has only won two MAC championships in his tenure, with too many upset losses getting in the way. Last year’s team was held back by a rushing attack that ranked 108th in the nation by generating only 115.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 124th in Rush Success Rate. The Rockets failed to score more than 15 points four times last year — and they lost all four games. Candle addressed this deficiency in the transfer portal by bringing in sixth-year senior Chip Trayanum from Kentucky, who began his injury-riddled college career as a recruit at Ohio State — but he has been injured and is listed as questionable for this game. On paper, Toledo has the talent to win their third MAC title under Candle’s leadership. But that has been the case for most of his tenure. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when off a bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (107) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. Texas A&M (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 45-42 victory against Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Aggies are primed to get exposed in this game after facing a soft schedule that has not included a ranked team from the SEC. They got outgained by the Razorbacks last week by -30 net yards after surrendering 527 yards in that game. Arkansas generated 8.4 Yards-Per-Carry against them while churning out 268 yards on the ground. They also gave up 13.1 Yards-Per-Play on passing downs. This was not the first time that an opponent exposed this Texas A&M defense. Notre Dame put up 440 yards and 40 points against them. The problems with the Aggies' defense starts with their tackling — they rank 115th in the Pro Football Focus tackling grade after missing 25 combined missed tackles in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida. They also rank 134th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 9 games on the road when favored since Mike Elko became their head coach — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season. LSU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against SEC rivals after a straight-up loss on the road. Head coach Brian Kelly can take some solace in that his offense generated 6.63 Yards-Per-Play despite only having the ball on offense for 23:29 minutes of that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after gaining 6.25 or more YPP. LSU has lost two games to Ole Miss and the Commodores last week — but they can keep their college football playoff hopes alive by winning the remainder of their games. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home from Weeks Five through Nine. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 19 games at home as an underdog, including four of those six games played since taking over the LSU program. 

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s meeting between these two teams in College Station by a 38-23 score as a 2-point home favorite — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). THE SITUATION: Ball State (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset victory at home against Akron as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Northern Illinois (1-6) has lost six games in a row after their 48-21 loss at Ohio as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State upset the Bobcats team that just beat the Huskies by 27 points earlier this season by a 20-14 score despite being a 14-point underdog. Their opening two games were on the road at Power Four conference opponents Purdue and Auburn to begin the season. The Cardinals typically play better as the season moves forward. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset victory and now facing a fellow Mid-American Conference rival. Looking back, it turns out that the Cardinals’ Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 was simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season. Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since. Neu was fired with two games left in a season where they finished just 3-9. The Cardinals posted an 18-31 record overall and a 12-20 conference mark in the last four years since that triumph. The administration appears to have made a good hire in Butler head coach Mike Uremovich, who turned that struggling FCS program around with a 23-11 record in his three seasons. The former Temple and Northern Illinois offensive coordinator is a familiar face for high school coaches in Indiana — and he has experience coaching in the MAC. He reunited with defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles, who took over running the Ball State defense last year after serving as the Bulldogs' DC under Knowles. That unit was a disaster last season, ranking 131st and 124th in the nation by surrendering 40.1 Points-Per-Game and 454.9 total Yards-Per-Game. Three starters are back from that group — and Uremovich brought in ten transfers. Uremovich gave the keys to the offense to senior Kiael Kelly, who started the final six games under center in 2023. With redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza returning for his second season after taking his redshirt after starting the first four games in 2023, the coaching staff wanted to utilize Kelly’s athleticism by moving him to the secondary and then the wide receiver room. Uremovich’s reputation is that he adapts his offensive schemes to his talent — so returning to the run-heavy RPO approach used with Kelly in those final six games is likely. While he only completed 53% of his passes, he ran for 724 yards and seven touchdowns. More importantly, Ball State went 3-3 in his six starts — and their three losses were all decided by one scoring possession. Running the ball more will certainly help the defense, with the offense burning more time off the clock. The Cardinals executed that game plan last week with Kelly running the ball for 58 yards and scoring three touchdowns. He added another 121 yards in the air with a passing touchdown. Ball State should continue to improve in the second half of the season under Uremovich. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against MAC rivals. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois opens the season by beating an FBS opponent, Holy Cross. In their six losses since, all against FBS opponents, they are only scoring 11.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not been a resilient team following a setback under head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. Northern Illinois comes off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois moved away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference, in the long run. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. But in the short run, it’s not working. They only gained 293 yards last week against the Bobcats. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover. That’s not working either. As it is, Northern Illinois is just 5-32-2 ATS in their last 39 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are getting outscored by -13.3 Points-Per-Game (much of that coming from their -70 net point differential against Purdue and Auburn) — but the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams that were getting outscored by -10 or more PPG. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (418) minus the points versus Tennessee (417). THE SITUATION: Alabama (5-1) has won five games in a row after their 27-24 win at Missouri as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (5-1) has won three games in a row with their 34-31 victory against Arkansas as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama has responded to their opening week loss at Florida State with three straight victories, including three wins in a row against ranked SEC rivals, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and then the Tigers last week. The Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road. Now they return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 37 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home against SEC opponents. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when the Total is set in the 56.5-62 point range. Quarterback Ty Simpson is growing as a top-level collegiate quarterback. He is completing 71% of his passes with 16 touchdowns to just one interception. That will work. Tennessee benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Razorbacks — and that made up for them getting outgained by -11 net yards and losing the first down battle by a 29-22 margin to a team playing for an interim head coach. The Volunteers are not likely to enjoy similar turnover success against this Alabama team that has only turned the ball over twice in their six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-win against a fellow SEC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. Quarterback Jason Aguilar has thrown 14 touchdown passes to just five interceptions — but against SEC opponents, he has thrown only six touchdowns with four interceptions. Remember, he was Tennessee’s consolation prize after Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA after spring practice, as they then grabbed the UCLA quarterback who was likely losing his job to the Volunteers’ QB last season. His 24 interceptions over the last two seasons, including 14 picks last year, are issues. Only three starters are back on offense, with the four starters lost on the offensive line, running back and SEC Offensive Player of the Year, Dylan Sampson, getting drafted into the NFL, and the wide receiver room filled with freshmen and sophomores. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks oversaw an outstanding unit that held their opponents to 293.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game for those foes, ranking sixth and seventh in the nation. The Volunteers lost defensive end James Pearce Jr. to the first round of the NFL draft along with three of their top four defensive tackles, but they do return eight starters and 12 of the 25 players who logged-in at least 150 snaps last season. The Tennessee defense has taken a few steps back this year. They rank only 78th in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They are also surrendering 213.7 Rushing Yards Per Game — and the 13 rushing touchdowns they have allowed is the 115th worst mark in the nation. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against fellow SEC rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six of those nine games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams winning 75% or more of their contests. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (418) minus the points versus Tennessee (417). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (416) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (415). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 36-7 victory against NC State as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. USC (5-1) rebounded from their 31-13 victory at home against Michigan as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans did not leave their triumph against the Wolverines at full strength. Starting running back Waymond Jordan Jr. injured his ankle, which will keep him out for this game. And while freshman King Miller generated three explosive runs in his absence, asking him to be the bell cow this week after the Irish coaching staff has tape on him presents a different challenge. Plus, there is the issue with the weather. As of Friday night, the weather forecast indicates there is a 100% chance of rain and a 38% chance of thunderstorms. The wind will be 14 miles per hour and gusting up to 36 MPH. A couple of caveats about this. As we witnessed last Sunday night in Kansas City, when there was a 55% chance of rain but the weather turned out fine for that Lions-Chiefs showdown, all of these weather forecasts needed to be taken with a grain of salt. I will never endorse a play and invest my money exclusively in a prediction about the weather. That said, if it is as rainy and windy as tonight’s forecast projects, it is going to make things more difficult for USC quarterback Jayden Maiva. The Trojans' successful run game against Michigan was set up by Maiva torching them for 265 yards from his 25 completions of his 32 pass attempts. The Trojans lead the nation in Standard Down Efficiency — but if the vertical game is impeded from the wet ball traveling in the wind, then their best trait is taken away from them. USC’s offensive line is also a bit banged up after last week’s very physical — and while all their starters are expected to play on the line, they are not in ideal shape to grind out a run-first game plan against the outstanding Notre Dame front line. As it is, the Trojans look primed for emotional letdown after securing what some national pundits have described as the most important win in the Lincoln Riley era. USC proved that they can out-muscle a Big Ten blue blood in the trenches. But this Fighting Irish team is bigger and better than the Wolverines in terms of both their offensive and defensive lines. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games after a win by 17 or more points. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games from Weeks Five through Nine. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. After losing their opening two games against Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, the Irish remain in the College Football Playoff conversation by winning their last four games — and one analytics system ranks their strength of schedule so far as the 11th most difficult in the FBS. Redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Carr is getting more comfortable in the passing game — he completed 19 of 31 passes for 342 yards against the Wolfpack last week. During their four-game winning streak, the Fighting Irish have generated 44 Points-Per-Game. Of course, the potential rainstorms will limit the Notre Dame pass attack — but they should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and get their ground game going. Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have 15 combined touchdowns and average 3.6 Rushing Yards After Contact. Now they face a Trojans' defense that ranks 112th in Opponent Rushing Efficiency Allowed and 119th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row. Notre Dame’s defense does rank 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but that mark deserves some context. The Irish have struggled against man-blocking schemes. They have been much better against zone blocking concepts — and those are the schemes that Riley prefers. Notre Dame’s run defense has improved lately — they have given up only one rushing gain of ten or more yards in their last two games. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The favorite in this series has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities to host the Trojans in South Bend. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (416) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (415). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (304) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (303). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-5) has lost five games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss in overtime at Troy as a 1-point favorite back on October 4th. Arkansas State (2-4) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-30 upset victory at home against Texas State as a 13.5-point underdog on October 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has endured some tough losses in the first half of the season. After taking care of business in their opening game against Morgan State, they played Tulane very tough at home in a 33-31 loss despite being a 13.5-point underdog in that game. They then traveled to Auburn — and while the Tigers won by a 31-15 score, the game played closer than that with South Alabama only getting outgained by -27 net yards by giving up just 337 total yards of offense. The next week at home against Coastal Carolina, they went into halftime with a 14-7 lead. But they suffered a meltdown in the second half by surrendering 31 points, fueled by three straight turnovers that led to Chanticleers touchdowns in an eventual 38-20 loss. They lost, 36-22, the next week at North Texas — but they were competitive ten days ago in their overtime loss on the road against Troy. Now is the time for second-year head coach Major Applewhite to right the ship and get his team going again. The Jaguars performed well under him in his first season with them last year. South Alabama won five of their last seven games, including winning the Salute to Veterans bowl game against Western Michigan by a 30-23 score. It could even have been a better season when considering they blew three fourth quarter leads. They lost four of their six games, which were decided by one scoring possession. Admittedly, they are getting crushed in the transfer portal — they lost 11 expected starters in the offseason this year. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Gio Lopez transferred to North Carolina after spring practice. But Applewhite got back junior quarterback Bishop Davenport, who was the MVP of their bowl game — and he usually oversees productive offenses. Last year, South Alabama generated 442.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 18th and tied for 19th in the nation. The silver lining Applewhite can build around is their rushing attack as they have generated 230.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have rushed for at least 205 yards in each of those contests. And despite losing four cornerbacks in the transfer portal, the Jaguars' secondary is playing very well as they are holding their opponents to just 169 passing YPG. The advanced metrics confirm the strong play of their pass defense. They rank 17th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Dropback Allowed and 44th in Opponent Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Applewhite should have this team ready to play tonight. In his head coaching career, going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Houston, his teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Trojans — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. South Alabama has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. Arkansas State survived a shootout with Texas State in a game where each team exchanged two touchdowns apiece in the final three minutes. The Red Wolves pulled it out by scoring the winning touchdown in the final minute, culminating in a four-yard touchdown run from quarterback Jaylen Raynor with just seven seconds left in the contest. They got outgained by -121 net yards, with the Bobcats generating 519 yards against them. In their five games against FBS opponents, they are surrendering 500.4 total YPG. The Red Wolves hit rock bottom in head coach Butch Jones' third season after early 73-0 and 37-3 losses to Oklahoma and Memphis. But turning to Raynor saved the 2023-24 season as Arkansas State reached a bowl game. Last season, Arkansas State finished 8-5 after beating Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl by a 38-31 score. Raynor passed for 2783 yards and added another 387 yards on the ground. He orchestrated three game-winning drives with less than two minutes left in the game — and now he returns for his junior season. Give credit to Jones for staying resolved to building this program patiently by focusing on developing his good recruiting classes. Arkansas State is one of just three FBS programs that have seen their win total increase for three straight years (which does speak to how far they fell in 2021 when they finished 2-10). But while Raynor returns to lead the offense, only four other starters come back on both sides of the ball. There are some red flags. Despite going 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, they got outgained by -61 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play. They won all seven of their games, which were decided by one scoring possession. These red flags have proven prophetic. The defense has been a disaster under first-year defensive coordinator Griff McCarrey. They are giving up 7.2 Yards-Per-Play and 5.8 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry (which does not bode well against this thriving South Alabama ground game). Opponents are converting on 49.3% of their Third Downs against them. Their pass coverage is the worst in the Sun Belt Conference — opposing QBs are completing 68.0% of their passes against them and averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas State was averaging only 16.8 PPG against FBS opponents before playing Texas State. Now the Red Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games. 

FINAL TAKE: Applewhite will motivate his team to avenge an 18-16 upset loss on the road to this team on October 5th last season, despite being a 3-point road favorite. Applewhite’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games in his career when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the South Alabama Jaguars (304) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (151) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (152). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) snapped their three-game losing streak to begin the season with a 25-14 victory at Northern Illinois as a 5-point road favorite last Saturday. Akron (2-4) has won two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset victory at home against Central Michigan as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Miami (OH) engaged in a difficult non-conference campaign that featured road trips at Wisconsin and Rutgers before hosting UNLV. The two games on the road against Big Ten schools were rough — but the RedHawks were very competitive against the revitalized UNLV program in a 41-38 loss three weeks ago. Head coach Chuck Martin uses an ambitious non-conference schedule to help prepare his team for conference play. They had their bye week after that loss — and they kicked off their Mid-American Conference season on the road by beating the Huskies. We were on Miami (OH) in that game — and I like what I saw. The RedHawks outgained the Huskies by +147 net yards while holding them to just 220 yards of offense. Despite trailing at halftime by a 14-10 score, they dominated that second half by outscoring Northern Illinois by a 15-0 score. They controlled the time of possession with their offense on the field for over 39 minutes of the game. Senior quarterback DeQuan Finn displayed his dual-threat skills by completing 14 of 26 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown (no interceptions) and adding another 91 yards on the ground from 21 rushes. Miami (OH) should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing with six days or less, including seven of those eight games played on the road. This team opened last season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. In his 12th year with the program, Martin’s career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faced a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense, headlined by Brett Gabbert, who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in the seventh-year senior Finn from Baylor to be the starting quarterback. He had been a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team, which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish, but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated — and last week’s effort is a good sign for this team moving forward. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored, including five of those seven games played on the road. They have covered 13 of their last 19 games against conference opponents, including five of those six games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in Weeks 5-9, including five of those six games played on the road. And in their last 11 games played against teams with a losing record, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those contests . Akron opened the season by losing at home against Wyoming and then at Nebraska by a combined 78-0 score. They then lost at UAB against the dumpster fire that the Blazers team has become under previous high school head coach (circa winning the Super Bowl as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback before becoming an ESPN TV personality for years), Trent Dilfer. They beat an FCS opponent, Duquesne, before losing at Tulane by a 45-3 score. So last week’s upset victory against Central Michigan may speak more about the direction of the Chippewas' program under the first year of head coach Matt Drinkall, who had been Army’s offensive line coach for the last six years and struggled in his lone season as their offensive coordinator two years ago. As it is, the Zips have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win at home. It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of this team. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023, and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017, headlined by an upset win in overtime against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season, and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress. The two-deep is full of freshmen in what will now be a two-year plan for Moorhead. Akron is 17-30-1 ATS in their last 48 games played at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The road team in this series has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (151) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (401) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (402). THE SITUATION: Nevada (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Western Kentucky two weeks ago as a 7.5-point underdog on September 20th. Fresno State (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 23-21 victory at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 21st (early!). 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada probably deserved better in their loss to the Hilltoppers. They went into halftime with a 10-3 lead — and they got burned by a 48-yard kickoff return for a touchdown on special teams. They outgained Western Kentucky by +10 net yards despite the 15-point loss. The Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after losing two games in a row. First-year head coach Jeff Choate got the most out of his talent last season. The Wolf Pack opened the season with a 3-4 mark, which included upset victories against Oregon State and Troy, along with a narrow 29-24 loss to a playoff-bound SMU. They also played playoff-bound Boise State tough in a 28-21 loss. But they lost their last six games of the season — and while going 2-6 in games decided by one possession is often a sign of some bad luck, too often this Nevada team lacked discipline and made mistakes late in the game that cost them dearly. Despite a winless record in their seven games in the Mountain West Conference, they only got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Choate has a good track record as the head of Montana State and then the defensive coordinator for Texas. After inheriting a team that got outscored by 16.1 net Points-Per-Game, Nevada only got outscored by -5.7 net PPG last season. Choate is probably going to push enough of the right buttons to get his group to overachieve once again. The Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games from Week Five to Week Nine. Fresno State got outgained by -19 net yards by the Rainbow Warriors — they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin, and they returned a 59-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice that game. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars, including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. But Warner remains a work in progress — he has five touchdown passes and five interceptions this season, and his two Big Time Throws to eight Turnover Worthy Plays this year are even worse. Fresno State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games from Weeks Five to Week Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in conference play. The Bulldogs are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 games when favored by more than 10 points at home against MWC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The road team is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games between these two teams. 25* CFB Mountain Conference West Underdog of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (401) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (361) minus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (362). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) won their first game of the season last week in an easy 38-0 victory at home against Lindenwood from the FCS as a 22-point favorite. Northern Illinois (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 6-3 loss against San Diego State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) had lost their first three games of the season after their 41-38 loss at home against UNLV as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 20th. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a straight-up loss in their last game against an FBS opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October, including four of those five six games played on the road. Now, after enduring a difficult non-conference schedule that included two tough road trips at Wisconsin and Rutgers before hosting a rejuvenated Rebels program two weeks ago. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against fellow Mid-American Conference opponents. This team opened last season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. Chuck Martin returns for his 12th season as the head coach — and his career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faces a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense, headlined by Brett Gabbert, who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in a seven-year senior, DeQuan Finn from Baylor, to be the starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB was a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Finn is questionable to play after getting injured two weeks ago in the UNLV game and then not playing last week. Senior QB Henry Hesson has been solid in relief — including completing 13 of 21 passes for 208 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team, which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish — but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated. Miami (OH) has coed the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois managed only 179 yards of offense last week against the Aztecs. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois is moving away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. The defense will be run by Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, head coach Thomas Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover. Northern Illinois is just 5-22-2 ATS in their last 29 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 visits on the road at Northern Illinois. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (361) minus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (204) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (203). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 37-20 victory at home against Wyoming as a 12-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after a 34-13 win at East Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado head coach Deion Sanders benched senior quarterback Kaiden Salter after some sluggish play early in the season. He did not look like the player who starred at Liberty as a three-year starter. After a 36-20 loss at Houston two weeks ago, Sanders turned back to Salter last week — and the dual threat responded with his best game for the Buffaloes. Salter completed 18 of 28 passes for 304 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions while adding another 86 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Colorado should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. Sanders draws plenty of media coverage for his antics (while drawing attention to the program that attracts recruits and transfers) — but he is very underrated as a teacher and leader of men as a head coach. His teams continue to improve as evidenced that they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after the first month of the season, including seven of those eight games played at home. Sanders deserves a lot of credit for overseeing significant improvement on both sides of the ball last season. The offensive line improved — and the offense scored +4.7 more Points-Per-Game and generated +29.6 more Yards-Per-Game. Their 32.9 PPG mark ranked 31st in the nation. The growth on defense was even more profound as they surrendered -101.4 fewer YPG and -11.7 PPG. After ranking 113th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings the prior year, they rose to 43rd in that metric last season. The result was a 9-4 season where they were in the mix to play for the Big 12 conference championship game in late November, and they reached a bowl game (losing to BYU in the Alamo Bowl by a 36-14 score). When considering that Coach Prime inherited a program that hit rock bottom in 2022 with a 1-11 season and only winning season in 16 years, reaching nine wins in Year Two is remarkable. Six starters return, plus at least another 30 players in the transfer portal. There continues to be reasons for optimism. The Buffaloes should have their best offensive and defensive lines in his tenure — and those are the areas that are hardest to build from scratch. It looks like he found the right people in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator Robert Livingstone, who both bring a wealth of NFL experience to the table. But Colorado now must replace the heart and soul of their team, the last two seasons, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. The loss of Hunter is devastating since he was a generational talent making significant contributions as a lockdown cornerback and a wide receiver who was so good that the Jacksonville Jaguars are prioritizing his getting comfortable at that position for them before they bring him along in their secondary. Sanders' slide to the fifth round in the NFL draft should not diminish his importance to this team.  He completed 74% of his passes last year for 4134 passing yards — and he accounted for 37 touchdowns. But his father was not shy about bringing in his replacement. In what was considered a “down” season, Salter still passed for 4762 passing yards and added 1840 non-sack rushing yards, and got into the end zone 66 times. Coach Prime also brought five-star freshman quarterback Julian “JuJu” Lewis. The Buffaloes have not run the ball much the last two years — whether that was because of the state of the offensive line or head coach Sanders wanting to showcase his son’s talent in the passing game to audition him for the next level — that will change this season. Both Salter and Lewis are dual-threat options under center — and both will likely have packages. More balance in their offensive attack should help their offensive line and their defense by keeping that group off the field a little more. Colorado has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against fellow Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, including seven straight point spread covers when playing at home. BYU has been racking up the frequent flyer miles after their trip to the East Coast last week. That game with the Pirates was much closer than the final score suggested, as the Cougars only outgained them by +14 net yards and lost the first down battle by a 24-20 margin. BYU benefited from a +2 net turnover margin — and one of their touchdowns came from an ill-advised pass that was intercepted for an easy four-yard touchdown. The Cougars surrendered 404 yards of offense, which begs the question regarding how good this defense is after losing seven starters from last season’s club. BYU has played an easy schedule so far this season — taking on Stanford and Portland before last week. Given the transfer of quarterback Jake Retzlaff to Tulane, the Cougars are starting a true freshman under center. Bear Bachmeier has been good leading the offense — but this is, by far, his toughest challenge yet in terms of both talent and the experience of Livingstone as the Buffaloes’ defensive coordinator. Coming off a 5-7 season two years ago, BYU was one of the surprise teams in the nation last year after finishing with an 11-2 record. They enjoyed four net upset victories on the season. But playing with the burden of expectations is much different — and it is telling that the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 23 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points since Kalani Sitake took over as their head coach. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after the first month of the season. 

FINAL TAKE: Sanders should have his team very prepared and fired up to avenge their 36-14 upset loss against this BYU team in the Alamo Bowl last December. That game was much closer than the scoreboard suggests, as Colorado only got outgained by -14 net yards. Getting stopped on fourth down inside the red zone did not help their cause, nor did their -2 net turnover margin. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games as an underdog under Sanders’ leadership, including four of those five games played at home. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Colorado Buffaloes (204) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (177) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) had won their first games of the season before a 45-10 loss at Mississippi as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. Tulsa (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 19-12 upset victory at Oklahoma State as a 10-point underdog last Friday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Despite beating two Power Four conference opponents already, Northwestern and Duke, it’s not terribly surprising that Tulane was not competitive against Ole Miss. But second-year head coach Jon Sumrall should have his team ready to play as the team begins conference action. Sumrall’s teams have covered the point speed in 10 of their 12 games played in Weeks Five through Nine, going back to his previous tenure with Troy. The Green Wave comes off a 9-5 season in Sumrall’s first year with the team that ended on a sour note with three straight losses, which included a 35-14 loss at Army in the American Athletic Conference championship game before ending the season with a 33-8 loss against Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. Despite that slide, this remains a program that has won 32 combined games in the last three seasons while reaching the conference championship game all three years. This is a remarkable achievement for Tulane, which averaged only 4.2 wins a year from 1999 to 2021. Sumrall kept going last year from where previous head coach Willie Fritz left off -- and Power Four conference teams are on notice because the roster was raided in the offseason. But Sumrall is fighting back by being very aggressive in the transfer portal, bringing back talent. He has added at least 20 players with starting experience at the FBS level — and the result is a de facto all-star team from mid-major FBS and lower-tiered football programs. The Green Wave have only five starters back — the total number of cumulative starts from the returning players is 72. The transfer players have 114 additional combined starts. On paper, the talent on the roster should put them in a position to compete once again for the conference title. In my deep dive on the team in the summer, the biggest question was at quarterback after the team lost Darian Mensah in the portal to Duke. Sumrall brought in two FBS quarterbacks in the portal to compete for the job, but felt the need to add Brendan Sullivan from Iowa after spring practice. It is not a good sign when the results from spring practice compel one to turn to Iowa for answers at quarterback. And it is not a good sign either when one only gets two starts under center for the Hawkeyes, as Sullivan did last season. But when sexual offense charges were dropped in July against BYU quarterback Jake Rentzlaff, he became a viable target in the transfer portal since the Cougars had suspended him for seven games for violating their moral code policy regarding premarital sex. It’s safe to say that colleges in New Orleans operate on different standards. Rentzlaff is a capable dual-threat quarterback who passed for 2947 yards and added another 417 rushing yards while leading BYU to an 11-2 season last year. Tulane has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 75 games when favored over the years — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when laying the points. Additionally, Sumrall’s teams have covered the point spread in 16 of their 21 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games on the road when favored. Tulsa comes off defeating a reeling Cowboys team that fired their long-time head coach, Mike Gundy, after the game. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season. This team continued their descent last year with a 3-9 campaign that led to Kevin Wilson getting fired after the second-to-last game in just his second season. Tulsa has lost 23 of their last 33 game after posting a 7-17 record under Wilson. While the former Indiana head coach and Ohio State offensive coordinator found some intriguing players on offense, the defense was a disaster, and the culture inside the program was a mess. They got outscored by 31 Points-Per-Game in their final four game while surrendering 613 Yards-Per-Game. They surrendered 496.8 total YPG for the season, which resulted in 42.0 PPG, ranking 131st and 132nd in the nation. Six of their losses were by 30 or more points. In hindsight, Wilson’s need to air his negative opinions regarding NIL and failure to adapt to the times to establish an NIL program contributed to the negative atmosphere in the building. In comes 35-year-old Tre Lamb, who is considered one of the bright up-and-comers in head coaching. He coached at Gardner-Webb from 2020 to 2023, where he turned that program around and reached the FCS playoffs in his final two seasons there. He moved to East Tennessee State last year, where he inherited a 3-8 team and led them to a 7-4 mark. Tulsa returns only six starters, but an NIL program has been established to help attract and retain talent. The rebuilding challenge Lamb faces is massive, but change was desperately needed. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite in this series has covered the point spread in 17 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (177) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (106) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (105). THE SITUATION: Virginia (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 48-20 victory against Stanford as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after a 66-10 win at home against Kent State as a 45-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia started well this season — their only loss was by four points on the road against North Carolina State. The 31 points they scored against the Wolfpack were the lowest number they have put on the scoreboard this season. After a 5-7 campaign where they ranked 101st in the nation by surrendering 408.3 total Yards-Per-Game, head coach Tony Elliott went all-in on the transfer portal with a roster loaded with players in their final year of eligibility. Elliott brought in more than 30 transfers — including more than ten after his spring practice. He is definitely on the hot seat — but pulling the upset in this nationally-televised game would go a long way to change the narrative. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games since the loss to NC State, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They are getting great play from senior quarterback Chandler Morris. The North Texas transfer has thrown for over 1000 yards already while completing 71% of his passes. He has eight touchdown passes and just one interception. He leads an offense that ranks in the top 30 in Expected Points Added per both Pass Play and Run Play. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in Weeks Five through Nine. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. In my deep dive on the Seminoles last year, my biggest question regarded whether head coach Mike Norvell was ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture. Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? After the nightmare of last season, when Florida State collapsed to a 2-10 record, some answers became apparent. Norvell is completely dependent on living — and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. The Seminoles ranked 130th and 132nd in the nation by scoring only 15.4 Points-Per-Game and 270.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Norvell is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. The Seminoles are certainly better this year, as their opening week victory against Alabama demonstrated  — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos, who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College, where he ran for 1100 yards two years ago. But Castellanos completed only 57.3% of his passes and threw 14 interceptions that season. He improved those numbers last year by completing 61.5% of his passes and throwing only five interceptions. But head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility, as last season demonstrated. To compound matters, he comes into this week with an ankle injury that he suffered in the game against the Golden Flashes last week — he has been limited in practice. This is the Seminoles' first game on the road this season, where they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games, including six of their last nine games away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against fellow ACC rivals. Additionally, the have failed to cover the point spread 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season, including six of those nine games on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points in Elliott’s tenure. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (106) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (378) minus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (377). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-3 victory against Portland State as a 38-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 56-7 victory against Southern as a 37.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i did not have redshirt freshman Micah Alejado under center last week due to a right foot injury — but they still dominated in that game by only surrendering 230 yards in that contest. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 9 straight home games after playing their last game Under the Total. They did not commit a turnover last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home after not committing a turnover in their last contest. Alejado is expected to play tonight and is listed as probable. Fourth-year head coach Timmy Chang returns 15 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. There is optimism within the program with the offense being handed over to Alejado, who threw 125 touchdown passes to just four interceptions in his high school career at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. He has a quick release and is very accurate, so he seems to be a great fit for the Rainbow Warriors’ run-and-shoot offense that is aging more Air Raid and RPOs concepts. Chang also brought in Alejado’s quarterbacks coach at Bishop Gorman to serve the same role at Hawai’i as a former player in the program. In his first career start in the last game of the season last year, Alejado threw for 469 yards with five touchdown passes and another 54 rushing yards in a 38-30 victory against a New Mexico team with a questionable defense. The defense returns nine starters and 11 of the 20 players who logged at least 200 snaps for second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. Hawai’i gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game last year, which was -6.2 fewer PPG than the prior year under the nine-year NFL veteran who served as Rex Ryan’s defensive coordinator for four seasons with the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. If the defense can continue to improve with a handful of transfers entering the program — and Alejandro can meet his high expectations as a Hawai’i native — this team can go places. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Fresno State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double-overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars, including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turnaround the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. He completed 20 of 24 passes for 240 yards with four touchdown passes against their FCS rival last week. But Warner can be loose with the football. After throwing 37 interceptions in his first three seasons, he already has thrown five picks this year. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents — and the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against conference rivals. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (378) minus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (354) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (353). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after a 42-3 victory at Temple as a 24-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn (3-0) has won their first three games of the year after their 31-15 victory at home against South Alabama as a 25.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. This appears to be a different Oklahoma team with former Washington State quarterback John Mateer under center. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 282 yards in the win against the Owls — and the dual-threat added 63 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He oversees a dynamic passing game that features four legitimate targets: Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sateen, and Jaren Kanak, who have combined for 59 receptions on over 12.0 Yards Per Reception. Those four receivers have forced 14 missed tackles between them. Overall, the Oklahoma offense is scoring a remarkable 5.4 points per trip inside their opponent’s 40-yard line. The Sooners rank 11th in the nation in Success Rate on passing downs — and they rank 22nd in Explosiveness on offense. The Sooners' defense has also been improved since head coach Brent Venables took over, calling the plays again. Oklahoma ranks in the top ten in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed. They rank second in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they have stopped their opponents in 34 of their 41 3rd Down opportunities. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played in September. Auburn beat the Jaguars last week — but they only outgained that Sun Belt opponent by +27 net yards after benefiting from a +2 net turnover margin. For the second-straight season, head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. The question for this team is at quarterback. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama last season. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. He only completed 13 of 24 passes for 142 yards in what should have been a layup last week against South Alabama. The Tigers' defense has many red flags. They rank outside the top-100 in rush defense and Expected Points Allowed per drop back in the passing game. Their defense ranks 105th in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grade — and they rank 122nd in PFF’s pass coverage grading scale. Furthermore, they rank outside the top 100 in explosive plays allowed on later downs. In their win against Baylor, they allowed 13 passing plays of 12 or more yards. They rank 122nd in their coverage grade in the passing game by PFF — and they rank outside the top 100 in Explosive Plays Allowed in later downs. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September. 

FINAL TAKE: The Sooners have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (354) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (353). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (174) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (173). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-1) returns to the field after their 27-24 upset loss at Miami (FL) as a 3-point favorite two weeks ago on August 31st. Texas A&M (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 44-22 victory at home against Utah State as a 35-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame was sluggish in their season debut on the road against the Hurricanes — and it was a questionable game plan. For some reason, the offense approach was to lean on the arm of true freshman C.J. Carr rather than junior running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Those two only ran the ball 16 times combined for 78 yards while Carr attempted 30 passes, completing 19 of these. Give credit to Carr, as he almost rallied Notre Dame back from a 21-7 deficit midway through the third quarter to almost pull out the win. Perhaps head coach Marcus Freeman had ulterior motives in mind in this contest, as he planned out a likely second straight playoff appearance given their soft schedule. Or, perhaps Freeman and his coaching staff are simply high on their own supply after reaching the national championship game last January. I will be watching to make that assessment. However, this showdown with the Aggies is clearly a must-win game — so I expect Love and Price to get plenty of touches after an extra week off to reassess where the offense is at. As it is, the Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 9 of their 10 games since Freeman took over after a bye week. They have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after a straight-up loss in the last two seasons. I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” in the past, who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but I like his turning the offense over to the redshirt freshman, Carr, to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield with Love and Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” Against Texas A&M, they should roll. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Texas A&M has won their opening two games of the season with victories against UTSA and then Utah State last week. But the Aggies' defense has looked vulnerable. They have given up points in all eight of their opponents’ drives inside their 40-yard line — and they surrendered 4.3 Points-Per-Trip inside their 40-yard line. They have already missed 22 tackles in those two games. Furthermore, they have surrendered seven explosive rushing plays of 15 or yards. In an albeit small sample size, their defense ranks 134th in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Rushing Attempt despite facing two Group of Five opponents. That is not a good sign when now playing on the road in South Bend, at night, against talented backs like Love and Price. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win, including five of those seven games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games outside the SEC, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (174) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (405) minus the point(s) versus the UNLV Rebels (406). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-1) looks to rebound from their 43-10 loss at home against Utah as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) has won their opening two contests after their 38-21 victory against Sam Houston as a 9-point favorite on a neutral field in Houston last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is typically resilient — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points.  In the program’s first season in the Big Ten, rookie head coach DeShaun Foster oversaw a 5-7 campaign where his team won four of their last six games. After the offense only generated 328.8 total YPG and 18.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 118th and 126th in the nation, he let go of offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and scored a bit of a coup by bringing in Indiana offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri. And then after an NIL dispute with the University of Tennessee, Foster landed redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal to potentially give them a potent dual-threat at quarterback after spring practice. Six starters return on offense to complement Iamaleava and Sunseri. On the other side of the ball, only two of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back. Foster did bring in 10 transfers on defense. Iamaleava struggled last week by completing only 11 of his 22 passes for 136 yards — but he faced an angry Utes defense with something to prove after a down season — and that Utah is also very good. This is the first true test for UNLV, which had two easy contests against Idaho State and then Sam Houston last week. It is a major red flag that their defense gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game against two non-Power Four conference opponents. After 28 years of averaging just 3.3 wins per season, the Rebels brought in Barry Odom two years ago, who had years of experience as a successful head coach at Missouri before three seasons as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. And while Deion Sanders got almost all the attention for his radical attempts to use the transfer portal to quickly transfer the talent base on the roster, Odom used the same formula to immediately transform this UNLV program that went 20-8 in his two seasons in Las Vegas. The Rebels come off a historic 11-3 season where they followed up a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game by beating California in the LA Bowl. With Odom moving on to Purdue (and whiz-kid offensive coordinator Brennan Marion taking his innovative “go-go” offense to Sacramento State where he will be the new head coach), the UNLV administration doubled down on the “let’s find another guy with tons of SEC experience” by persuading Dan Mullen to leave the plushy confides of the ESPN studio seat to become the Rebels next head coach. Living here in Vegas, the program is promoting this hire with the same intensity as happy hours off the strip (meaning the hype level is high — and Mullen is rivaling Jason Kelce regarding local commercial spots). I have a basic and healthy skepticism of guys getting hired off TV. Looking up my old notes on Mullen, I was convinced he got the most out of his talent at Mississippi State in his eight years with the program while continuing his reputation as an innovative offensive mind for running quarterbacks. His four years as the head coach at Florida did not see as many glowing sidebars in the notebook. I had concerns about him winning big games (and his big achievement with the Bulldogs previously was to make them a winning team, albeit one that was not winning conference championships) before there became significant culture concerns in his third and final year with the program, before he got fired. He went into the final season on the hot seat because it was an “off the field circus” (quoting my notes), which included being on NCAA probation for recruiting violations. Two years later, in my notes, I am suggesting Gators’ head coach Billy Napier should be given some benefit of the doubt because of the talent gap he inherited — and that’s a Mullen issue. Three caveats on Mullen: (1) his career record as a head coach is 103-61; (2) his critical third year happened to land in the 2020 COVID year which disrupted everything; (3) Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr and 49ers’ general manager John Lynch were hired from TV jobs, so the track record is not 100% failure — it’s just close to that. The used-car salesman schtick has worked from the recruiting side of things. With only one starter back on each side of the ball, Mullen has hustled to bring in tons of new players as Odom did — and most of the transfers are coming from Power Four conference programs, with at least 16 of which were originally high-level blue-chippers. But many of these guys are on their third or even fourth team at this point in their career. Maybe Mullen can Slow Horses this thing (or Department Q for fans of The Queen’s Gambit) — and the misfit toys forced to work with each other can finally meet the previously untapped potential that they had once shown? But after being off the sidelines the last four seasons, is Mullen the guy who can bring all these unfamiliar parts and immediately build a culture? After flaming out in Florida? At a program that had been a perpetual doormat before a professional football coach like Odom came in? The best-case scenario is that it took someone like Odom to demonstrate the high ceiling a football program in Las Vegas has in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal — and a high-profile hire like Mullen is what is needed to take the team to the next level. Then again, I remember when the Raiders hired Jon Gruden off television a few years ago. How did that work out?

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels do not have much of a home field advantage here, playing in the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium. They failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 home games last season. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (405) minus the point(s) versus the UNLV Rebels (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). THE SITUATION: TCU (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that culminated in their 34-3 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Mexico Bowl. North Carolina (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to UConn in the Fenway Bowl by a 27-14 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover. This is a stable group — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points under Dykes. North Carolina hit the reset button. I have little doubt that if Bill Belichick wanted to develop an elite college football program at the University of North Carolina, he could do it. As the son of two parents who were college professors, he is a football lifer who considers himself first and foremost a teacher. He has forgotten more about teaching (and football) than these loudmouth critics in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex have ever known about this or any other subject. But how serious is he about the responsibility of this job? I initially thought this was an easy answer. But when I conducted my deep-dive on this team in mid-July, it was just after Belichick felt the need to rebut on ESPN mostly innocent comments made by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Maybe the year off from coaching last year changed the priorities of this 73-year-old in the twilight of his life, with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He became a media star on multiple platforms. He has a 24-year-old girlfriend. He has empowered her to become his social media agent. All the drama … it is definitely not the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it is time to work on football, he is putting in 100% effort. But is the fire in the belly still there? Because if the idea was to go from NFL star to media star, one probably could not find a better group of marks than the administration at North Carolina. They gave the bag to Mack Brown at 68 years old to leave his cushy job occasionally talking about football on ESPN to return as their head coach six years ago. Brown was able to sell his “CEO” style for six years of utter mediocrity, where the Tar Heels always qualified for a bowl game, yet never won more than nine games. This football team has not enjoyed a ten-win season since 2015. If a cynic wanted to argue that, at 73 years old, Belichick is content to simply get paid and go through the motions now while promoting his Q rating, the evidence supporting this is growing. His new coaching staff remains a blend of nepotism or “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though Brown did not ever elevate him higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator). More red flags continue to emerge. The high school recruiting front has been meager, despite new general manager Michael Lombardo boasting about their establishment of an advanced pro-level scouting program that implements NIL better than their peers. And then perhaps the biggest tell: nearly two dozen players left the program after spring practice. Maybe old school tactics like not assigning jersey numbers until the player “earned it” was simply following the advice of his parents, who knew that it is much easier to loosen restrictions as a teacher than attempt to get stricter after initial expectations are established. But the defense lost two of their best defensive players with defensive end Beau Atkinson and linebacker Amare Campbell transferring to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively, who were both very happy to assign these players a jersey with a number. Perhaps that is the inevitable attrition still playing out in establishing a winning culture. It certainly was not there under Brown. Belichick knows defense and can teach it. They have been very active in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Belichick added eight new transfers on the offensive line that are big with lots of starting experience (and two All-Conference awardees). Belichick brought in an intriguing talent at quarterback after spring practice with Gio Lopez from South Alabama. The sophomore dual-threat QB passes for 2559 yards and rushed for 547 non-sack rushing yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. But the skill position players on offense are mostly unproven in a bad look that looks suspiciously like his final teams with the Patriots. Many things have to go right to immediately build a winning team from the transfer portal. Chemistry, cohesion, culture — these are never guaranteed, even if the head coach is a future NFL Hall of Famer. Maybe Belichick already knows that — and his girlfriend has the perfect meme to post about it?

FINAL TAKE: Taking a step back from the Belichick analysis, teams with almost entirely new coaching staffs and only six returning starters from last year tend to struggle out of the gate. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread at home in 7 straight games — so Kenan Stadium has not offered much advantage lately. 10* CFB TCU-North Carolina ESPN Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns to action after their 14-2 season that culminated in their 24-23 loss against Ohio State in the national championship game. Miami (FL) (0-0) comes off a 10-3 season that ended in a 42-411 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience, with a turn as a head coach in college. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” They should outclass Miami (FL). The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. And in their last 8 games on the road, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those contests. As some things change with the Hurricanes, other things frustratingly remain the same under head coach Mario Cristobal. In his fourth year with the program, he is doing a good job bringing talent into the program from both recruiting high school players and being aggressive in the transfer portal. But blown leads and game management remain significant problems. Two years ago, in their 7-6 campaign, in their four losses decided by seven points, the Miami (FL) blew a second-half lead in each contest. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech that season was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. The Hurricanes opened up last season by going 9-0. Then Miami lost on the road against Georgia Tech. At 10-1 and a berth in the ACC championship game on the line, they blew a 21-point lead at Syracuse in an upset loss that cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. Cristobal made another controversial decision with under four minutes left in the game, trailing by seven points, to take the ball out of quarterback Cam Ward’s hand and settle for a field goal on fourth down at the 10-yard line. While the odds of success in executing a fourth-and-10 are not high, were they much worse than the chances of the Miami defense stopping the Orange’s offense, which had scored touchdowns on four of their previous five possessions to take the lead? Besides, failing on fourth down requires the defense to step up as much as cutting the deficit to four points with the field goal, albeit with Syracuse pinned back deep on their side of the field. The Hurricanes then blew another lead in a 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl (although Ward did not play in the second half of that game). Ward is gone to the NFL after leading a Miami offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense. Cristobal looked to the transfer portal as well to bring in Georgia quarterback Carson Beck for his final season. Beck bypassed the NFL to take what has been reported as a $4.2 million NIL deal — but he was not getting drafted before Day Three, so he is making more money this year by staying in school. South Beach was an attractive choice because his girlfriend played basketball for the Hurricanes —but the rumors are that the couple has since split up. Beck is also coming off elbow surgery on his throwing hand. With all this static, it is not given that he is a simple plug-and-play replacement for Ward. Decision-making was an issue last year as he threw 12 interceptions for Georgia. The wide receiver room lost their top five targets last season — it is a vastly more inexperienced room than the one Ward enjoyed. The defense continued to struggle against good teams as they surrendered 31 or more points six times. Cristobal turned to Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to run his defense after the Golden Gophers ranked fifth in the nation in total defense — but he is their third DC in four years. Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Cristobal added nine more players in the transfer portal, including five in the defensive secondary. Miami finally won 10 games under Cristobal -- but with big questions at wide receiver and the secondary, the likely downgrade at the quarterback position after Ward's spectacular season, and the proclivity to find ways to blow leads, it is difficult to expect an improvement on last year's results. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog under Cristobal. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in the first half of the season in the Cristobal era.

FINAL TAKE: Heavy rain is expected at some point in this game — the latest weather report I saw calls for a heavy downpour around 9 PM ET. I think the inclement weather favors Notre Dame, which can rely on their running backs and great offensive line, along with their defense. The Hurricanes are an error-prone team — and the bad weather just adds to the chaos. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Miami (FL) ABC-TV Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (0-0) kicks off their season after an 8-5 season that ended in a 31-26 upset loss as a 4-point favorite against Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. Fresno State (0-1) began their season last Saturday in a 31-7 loss at Kansas as a 13.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern has reached a bowl game in three straight seasons — and head coach Clay Helton believes this is his best team yet in his fourth year with the program. The Eagles have 13 starters back, led by quarterback J.C. French IV. The junior quarterback was efficient in operating the Air Raid offensive attack — he completed 65.6% of his passes for 2831 yards last year. Helton typically gets his team to play well out of the gates. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 13 of their 18 games in the first half of the season under his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in all six of their games in the first two weeks of the season. They also covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games on the road last year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Fresno State struggled on offense last week as they only managed 216 yards of offense from just 13 first downs. They got outgained by -167 net yards. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. Frankly, Warner’s name recognition surpasses his productivity on the field. He only threw for 179 yards last week with two interceptions. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State does have a game under their belt — but, in practice, that is not helpful relative to point spread expectations when taking on a team that is making their season debut. The advantage of being able to scout the game tape may be more beneficial for teams like Georgia Southern in spots like this. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). Best of luck for us —  Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns to action after winning the national championship with their 34-23 victory against Notre Dame last January in the title game. Texas (0-0) wants to avenge their 28-14 loss to the Buckeyes as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the college football playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Longhorns are many pundits' pick to win the national championship after getting so close the last two seasons in losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Washington two years ago and then to the Buckeyes in a contest that was much closer than the final score. Remember, Texas was about ready to punch it in for a late game-tying score before Jack Sawyer scooped up a fumble and returned it 99 yards for the touchdown in a game-defining moment. Fifth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in the top high school class in the nation in 2025. Between his recruiting, his winning the transfer window by targeting specific talent to fill holes while retaining the vast majority of his roster, and the university’s strong commitment to its NIL program, Texas may be leading the way in how to thrive in the new competitive environment. And now they begin the Arch Manning era. Manning has dual-threat skills with mobility that is reminiscent of his grandfather, Archie, who had a long NFL career as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. His accuracy on deep balls brings a new dynamic to the offense that was not available the last two seasons with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. It may be very possible that Manning under center unlocks new levels of Sarkisian’s offensive genius that were held back the last two seasons. The defense lost all three starters — but Sarkisian did identify this area of need by bringing in five transfers with starting experience for the defensive line room. Perhaps the biggest question mark is the line on the other side of the ball after losing four starters on the offensive line from last year. This will be a young group — but having established chemistry and synergy with Manning by taking the second team reps with him last season should pay dividends that are not yet fully appreciated by the pundits. Sarkisian consistently has his team play well early in the season — his teams in his head coaching career have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games in the first two weeks of the season. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 season openers (winning all six of those games outright). They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games in the first half of the season. Texas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Buckeyes pushed all their chips in to win the National Championship last season with four stars on defense, bypassing the NFL to return for a final season. Once again, the roster is loaded with talent — but there are far more questions than answers regarding how this year’s team will fare against elite competition. With only eight starters from last year’s team back, new leaders will have to emerge to help manage adversity. The defense lost nine players to the NFL. Free safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country — but the defensive line is the biggest question on that side of the ball, with depth at defensive tackle being a real concern. The offense lost senior quarterback Will Howard as well as running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL. Second-year freshman quarterback Julian Sayin most certainly has higher upside than Howard, but he is wet under the years. Led by the phenomenal sophomore Jeremiah Smith, the wide receiver room is loaded, but how quickly Sayin can take advantage of this group remains a question. The offensive line lost two starters to the NFL after being the weak link of this unit against their top competition (ask Michigan). Henderson and Judkins' innate talent out of the backfield helped neutralize this weakness in the playoffs, but Ohio State is starting over with their backfield now. What helped the Buckeyes rebound from the late-season loss to the Wolverines was their veteran coaching staff, with Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator and Jim Knowles running the defense to support all the criticism Ryan Day was receiving. Now Kelly is the OC for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Knowles defected to run the Penn State defense. Day reinstalled Brian Hartline as the offensive coordinator after being demoted back to just the tight ends coach last year. Hartline has been an assistant offensive coach here since 2017. I do like that Day is not going back to calling plays — outside of Andy Reid, all these offensive coaches are better served concentrating on running the entire team and avoiding the allure to also free-lance and call every offensive play. Deferring the play-calling to Kelly last year was prudent — and now giving those duties to Hartline is the best long-term move. But Hartline is a first-time play-caller. On the other side of the ball is now Matt Patricia. I don’t love what it says that Knowles did not want to stay with the program where he oversaw the best scoring defense and total defense in the nation. Patricia is undoubtedly a brilliant defensive mind. I even defended Bill Belichick’s decision to anoint him the offensive coordinator for New England by buying the argument that teachers teach. But Patricia has mostly been a complete failure when outside the purview of Belichick as his defensive coordinator. His time as the Detroit Lions’ head coach was a disaster, and after helping to orchestrate the ousting of defensive coordinator Sean Desai to take over the Philadelphia Eagles' defense two years ago, the result was the team hitting rock bottom in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. When the Eagles cut ties with Patricia last offseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I have serious reservations that Patricia can (a) nurture collegiate talent and (b) tailor his sophisticated schemes to the collegiate level. Day finally has a national title under his belt, but I am not sure he has the leadership skills to handle the challenges of two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Losing 14 players to the NFL draft is tough for any team to overcome. However, with the new expanded playoff system, Ohio State may be an intriguing team to reconsider once the postseason begins. Right now, the market may be living off the vapors of last year’s playoff. The Buckeyes tend to be a slow-starting team relative to expectations as well. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the opening two weeks of the season — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 opening games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: There is so much turnover with the Buckeyes — a new play-caller on offense, a new defensive coordinator who lacks recent collegiate coaching experience, and a freshman quarterback. Fourteen new starters. And in the back of their minds, they know they can lose a couple of games in the regular season before stepping up in the college football playoffs — as they did last year after an early loss against Oregon, before that devastating upset loss at home to Michigan. The Longhorns have been thinking about this revenge opportunity every day in practice. They have more stability at quarterback since Manning got into a handful of games last year — and their defense is probably the best unit on the field. 10* CFB Texas-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 campaign that ended in a five overtime loss against South Florida in the Hawai’i Bowl. Central Michigan (0-0) suffered their third straight losing season with a 4-8 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. San Jose State generated 321.8 passing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth in the FBS. This passing attack really took off when Walker Eget took over under center in the sixth game. The senior returns at quarterback with four other starters on offense having averaged 301 passing yards YPG in his seven starts. The defense returns 14 of the 22 players who got at least one start last season including seven players who had seven or more starts. The Spartans have registered seven-win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time since 1980-1982. Niumatalolo and this coaching staff deserve some benefit of the doubt that they can coach this group up. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored. After overseeing a 20-13 record in his first three seasons (including the shortened 2020 campaign), Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain just seemed to lose steam over the last few years. The Chippewas have a 13-23 record in the last three seasons after their 4-8 campaign last year — and that prompted McElwain to retire after six seasons. Injuries on offense did not help matters as they were down to their fourth quarterback at one point while losing their top five wide receivers to injury. In comes first-year head coach Matt Drinkall, who served as the offensive line coach at Army for the last six seasons. He was promoted to co-offensive coordinator in 2023 and enlisted to adapt the spread triple-option to a new blocking scheme after the NCAA implemented new cut-blocking rules — but his shift to a shotgun-styled attack failed, and he was demoted back to just the offensive line coach last year. How the offense will develop will be interesting, as Drinkall does not plan to go all-in on a nearly complete rushing attack like the one at Army. Former Iowa transfer Joe Labas was the initial starting quarterback last year but suffered a season-ending injury in the sixth game of the season. He completed 59% of his passes and is not very mobile — so he may not fit in Drinkall’s more comfortable schematic approaches. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. The Chippewas face challenging circumstances traveling out west for a night game on the West Coast since their body clocks will think it is 1:30 AM when this game kicks off. As it is, Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in five straight games on the road against non-conference opponents from a Group of Five conference. 8* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season that ended with a 44-31 loss against LSU in the Texas Bowl. Auburn (0-0) looks to rebound from a 5-7 season where they did not play in a bowl game for the second time in the last three years.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Dave Aranda went into the offseason of the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season, with five of those victories being by double-digits. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. Aranda is considered a defensive guru from the great job he did as the defensive coordinator for LSU in their national championship run. His defense hit rock bottom two years ago, ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. The Baylor defense took a few steps forward last season by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball. With eight players on defense with starting experience, including a couple of players added in the transfer portal, the expectation is that this group will take another step forward. Aranda usually gets his team to start the season well (despite last year’s slow start). The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games in the first month of the season under Aranda, including three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on turf. For the second-straight season, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. On offense, the question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. Losing running back Jarquez Hunter to the NFL will hurt — especially since the Auburn offense ranked 115th in Finishing Drives last season. The defense must replace seven starters from last year’s group that held their opponents to 21.3 PPG. This is the Tigers’ first opening game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2019 — and it is their first opener played in a hostile environment since 2003 when they opened at USC. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games in the first month of the season since Freeze took over as their head coach including both of those games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home, with the Total set in the 52.5 to 63 point range, including six of those last nine contests. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) comes off a 5-7 season last year, missing a bowl game for the third straight season. Western Michigan (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to South Alabama in the Salute to Veterans Bowl by a 30-23 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Second-year head coach Jonathan Smith inherited a proud program that had hit rock bottom. Previous head coach Mel Tucker was fired after four seasons, amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished in 2023 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that the 11-2 season in 2021, which led to Tucker getting a ten-year, $95 million contract, was the team’s only winning season in the previous five years and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. After Tucker got dismissed, 12 players entered the transfer portal in April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Tucker lived and died relying on the portal. But the problems Smith inherited go farther back than that. The “more with less” dogma of previous head coach Mark Dantonio grew stale less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to developing elite talent -- particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense. Furthermore, their defenses took a step back from their peak seasons in the Dantonio era. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time. Smith is committed to patiently doing things the right way, as he previously did in building Oregon State into a contender. The Spartans did not get to a bowl game, but the quality of play was better in a 5-7 season. There are reasons for optimism. Despite the secondary losing nine players on the depth chart at one point — including three starters — the defense ranked 34th in the nation by giving up 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their opponents to -29 YPG below their season average. The unit ranked 32nd in run defense by giving up 125.1 rushing YPG. Those are Sparty’s best defensive numbers since 2019 — and with the excellent Joe Rossi as defensive coordinator, the defense should continue to improve. Five starters are back — and Smith was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding four outside linebackers and four cornerbacks. The offense needs to take a step (or two) forward after only scoring 19.3 PPG and generating 333.4 total YPG, ranking tied 123rd and 110th in the nation.  Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles was inconsistent in his first year as a starter. The former Oregon State transfer only completed 56% of his passes in his first five games, with five touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He did improve in the final seven games by completing 61% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and only three interceptions. As Smith tries to develop homegrown talent, he was aggressive in bringing in transfers to bolster that unit. Better play from that unit will help Chiles — and with their defense, the Spartans could start becoming a bit dangerous. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season. Smith’s teams have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games at home when favored. Progress seems to be taking place for the Broncos’ head coach, Lance Taylor, in his third year with the program. But with a 6-7 record, Western Michigan did suffer their third-straight losing season — and a closer look at their victories does not offer positive context. After starting the season 1-3, the Broncos rattled off four wins in a row against the four bottom teams in the Mid-American Conference. They lost four of their final five games. In their six games against teams that ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, they had a 5-1 record. Is the talent improving for Western Michigan under Taylor’s leadership — or are they simply getting better at being bottom-feeders? The offense returns only four starters, but Taylor did bring in two transfers from the Big Ten to bolster the offensive line, along with former Michigan blue-chipper Colt Cabana at running back. The defense continues to live and die from the transfer portal, with only three starters back and plenty of new players coming in, although most are not from FBS programs. Taylor is also on his third defensive coordinator already, after Scott Power was tapped as the next defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Former Notre Dame analyst Chris O’Leary, who was the safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers last season, takes over running the defense. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games in the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against the Broncos. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). THE SITUATION: Akron (0-0) comes off a 4-8 campaign last season. Wyoming (0-0) finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of the Zips. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023, and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017, headlined by an upset win in overtime at home against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season, and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress — so games like this take on added meaning. The Zips did end the year winning three of their last five games while scoring 26 Points-Per-Game which was almost six PPG above their season average. Akron covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games at home as an underdog, including their season-ending upset victory against Toledo. In Moorhead’s 23 games in his head coaching career when his team was playing at home, his teams covered the point spread in 9 of those games. For Wyoming, expectations were high last season for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel, who was beginning a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams, while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. I was worried that the program may have peaked in 2023 after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Sawvel thought his group could contend for the Mountain West Conference championship. That defense returned 19 of the 22 in the two-deep, including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. There was hope Evan Svoboda, wearing #17, would evoke memories of Josh Allen with the junior quarterback holding a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He had shown flashes in a close contest against Texas and then in their bowl game. But Wyoming lost their first four games of the season, and the offense opened up employing more spread and up-tempo concepts, which was a complete flop by ranking just tied for 123rd in the nation by scoring just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The defense took a step back by surrendering 410.6 Yards-Per-Game, which was -52.8 net YPG more than in 2023 and ranked 103rd in the FBS. They also ranked 91st by giving up 28.3 PPG, which was -6.0 more PPG than the previous season. Only one starter returns on that side of the ball, with second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl losing 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Sawvel attempted to add length and size by bringing in 13 transfers and another three junior college players — but only five of those players come from FBS programs. The plan on offense is to return to the conservative power rushing attack of previous Cowboys teams while giving the keys to the offense to redshirt sophomore Kaden Anderson, who started three games in a row late in the season before his year ended with a concussion. Wyoming typically starts slow — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the first month of the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been a much better team when playing at home at War Memorial Stadium over the years — but they have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 8* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) comes off an 8-6 season that culminated in a 27-17 loss against James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Sam Houston (0-0) finished 10-3 last year after a 31-26 victory against Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — he has led the Hilltoppers to four-straight seasons with eight or more victories. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal, including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian, along with his offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers, who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. Helton should have his team ready to play this game — and having North Alabama on deck should help the cause. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler left Sam Houston to take the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Month with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (0-0) enjoyed their first double-digit win season in program history with their 11-3 mark last year that culminated in a 42-41 victory against Miami (FL) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Kansas State (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that ended with a 44-41 victory against Rutgers in the Rate Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Early games are often the best times to back Iowa State with Matt Campbell as their head coach. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season in Campbell’s tenure. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog. They return 12 starters from last year’s team, headlined by junior quarterback Rocco Becht, who passed for 3505 yards with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. The defense has six starters back from a group that defensive coordinator Jon Heacock used 21 different starters for the season. Iowa State suffered through losing 12 of 13 games by one scoring possession from the middle of 2021 through early 2023 before now winning seven of their last nine games decided by eight points or less. Head coach Matt Campbell probably wants to credit this turnaround to more difficult spring practice sessions, where he emphasized putting his players into situations of adversity. Former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard may have won a national championship for Ohio State last season, but he was likely going to be benched if he stayed for his final collegiate season in Manhattan. Avery Johnson was ranked as the number three dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school. His athleticism pushes his ceiling of potential very high. He has a good arm and is speedy with his legs. Johnson threw for 2712 passing yards, added 605 rushing yards, and accounted for 32 overall touchdowns. But the junior needs to improve as a passer this season. He completed only 58% of his passes and threw 10 interceptions. Too often, it was feast or famine for the offense. In their nine victories, Kansas State scored 37.6 Points-Per-Game — but in their four losses, they managed only 15.8 PPG. Former Utah State and Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells takes over as the offensive coordinator after sharing those duties last year. As the team’s passing game coordinator, he is expected to open up the passing game a bit more. The offensive line should remain one of the strengths of this team under head coach Chris Kleinman in his seventh year with the program. He brought in four transfers from Power Four conferences to join two returning starters from last season — but cohesion on the offensive line could be an issue, especially in games played in August. The other side of the ball is the bigger question mark overall, with only five starters back. The Wildcats must replace two defensive backs, Jacob Parrish and Marques Sigle, who got drafted into the NFL — and they also lost their sack leader, Brendan Mott. But four of the six players who registered at least six sacks last year are back, and the secondary too often got burned last year. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow Big 12 rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 Farmageddons between these opponents. 10* CFB Iowa State-Kansas State ESPN Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: On paper, there is a talent mismatch between these two teams. Ohio State has 15 players on their roster who are graded as a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Notre Dame has only one five-star recruit— and injuries all season have diluted their ideal talent base for this ultimate game. And I remain steadfast that this Fighting Irish team reached this championship game because of a favorable schedule. In my deep dive on them in the preseason, I observed that the closest thing to a signature victory in the first two seasons under head coach Marcus Freeman was either a victory against a mediocre Clemson team two seasons ago or a win against a mediocre USC team last year. They beat another mediocre Texas A&M team to begin the season before getting upset by Northern Illinois. Granted they then went on to beat all the service academy and second-tier ACC opponents on their schedule. They beat USC again — but surrendering 360 passing yards to a former UNLV quarterback who began the season as a second-stringer raises serious doubt about the quality of their pass defense. In the playoffs, they overwhelmed an Indiana team that also benefited from a soft schedule. Then the Irish beat Georgia in what is now the top victory in the Freeman era — but that Bulldogs team did not have any first-team All-Americans in what was the least threatening roster head coach Kirby Smart has had in his tenure there perhaps ever. Georgia also had a sophomore quarterback make his first career start in that game — and yet except for a 54-second span to end the half and start the second half when Notre Dame scored 17 unanswered points, that game was even. And then in the Spiderman Social Media Meme Bowl against Penn State (I consider both programs to be mirror images of each other), somebody had to win — and the unity and cohesion that Freeman has brought to his team was just enough to overcome the Nittany Lions finding ways to lose big games under head coach James Franklin. In this instance, it was the luck of the Irish that led to Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s bad interception late in that game on a potential game-winning drive which gave Freeman’s team the ball almost already in field goal position. Sorry, I just don’t give much credit for salvaging a victory against Penn State after trying to give that game away in the fourth quarter themselves — and due to quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions, it was the first time since the upset loss to Northern Illinois when Notre Dame lost the turnover battle. Can the Irish win this game without winning the turnover battle? The Buckeyes have only five turnovers in their last six games — and two of those giveaways were against Michigan. So perhaps the deeper question is: can Notre Dame replicate the Wolverines' formula for success? These two teams are now playing each other for the third time in three straight seasons. Ohio State won at home by a 21-10 score in 2022 before pulling out a 17-14 win in South Bend last season. Three points from those games. First, the Fighting Irish scored only 24 combined points in those two games (more on that below) Second, both were played in September when Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day was still keeping his playbook limited. Third, after former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz called out Day’s team for being too soft, Day became obsessed with proving how tough he/his team was — and that dictated a run-heavy game script. Day would after the game call out the septuagenarian for daring to challenge the toughness of his group (something only insecure people feel the need to do). Day’s demons would later get the best of him this season as his obsession to prove to the world how tough his team/he is played right into Michigan’s hands in that upset loss in late November. Day was made into a laughingstock after that loss — but the playoffs are his redemption tour. If there is one thing he is not going to do in this game, it is not getting his uber-talented wide receivers involved enough. Relying on pass-first game plans in the playoffs, the Buckeyes raced out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Tennessee, a 34-8 halftime against Oregon, and then a 7-0 lead and a 14-7 lead against the Longhorns. Notre Dame cannot afford to fall behind by more than one score because they are very limited in the passing game. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The last 16 teams to win the National Championship Game who failed to score at least 21 points have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of those games. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in 11 of their 15 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Fighting Irish are outscoring their opponents by +22.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. But the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games the last three seasons against teams who do not allow more than 17.0 PPG (and two of those games were against Michigan). 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Can Texas survive the Mike Tyson first-round fury that the explosive Ohio State offense will try to unleash early in this game? The Buckeyes floored the Ducks last week by scoring the game’s first two touchdowns and then countering Oregon’s first score with another 20 points to go into the locker room with a 34-8 lead. Longhorns’ head coach Steve Sarkisian will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field — and he shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. Ohio State does generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry — but the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. The Buckeyes limit their opponents to 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Texas is 12-2-1 ATS in their 15 games under Sarkisian against teams who are not allowing more than 5.9 YPA. If this game remains close at halftime, then I expect it to be a nailbiter the rest of the way as the weight of the world begins to fall on Ohio State head coach Ryan Day. In Day’s 6 games as a favorite on a neutral field with the Buckeyes, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 14 games against teams from the SEC with ten straight-up losses. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home after beating a Big Ten rival.

FINAL TAKE: Sarkisian has an ace-in-the-hole with backup quarterback Arch Manning — and I suspect he has been sandbagging using him until a playoff moment just like this. It reminds me of when Alabama benched quarterback Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship Game against Georgia. Sarkisian was an offensive analyst for Nick Saban that season. Manning offers a unique threat over Quinn Ewers with his legs — and he opens up the playbook since he has a big arm that can throw wide receivers open. It is the curveball that would disrupt Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' plans. 10* CFB Ohio State-Texas ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283) in the Orange Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Penn State (13-2) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven after their 31-14 victory against Boise State as an 11.5-point favorite in the College Football Quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve last Tuesday. Notre Dame (13-1) has won 12 games in a row after their 23-10 victory as a 1-point favorite against Georgia in their quarterfinals contest last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINT(S): I consider these two teams (and programs) to be mirror images of each other (or the Spiderman social media meme). These are two football teams that tend to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition who then get overwhelmed by the elite teams that season. The Fighting Irish pulled off their best victory by beating Georgia under head coach Marcus Freeman in his three years with the program. I don’t know what to make of that victory other than it was Notre Dame who made the big plays in a game-changing minute stretch where they kicked a late field goal in the first half before intercepting a pass deep in the Bulldogs side of the field to score a touchdown and then returned the opening kick off for another touchdown. That 17-0 swing in points decoded the game. It was a stalemate for the other 59 minutes of the game. Georgia outgained the Fighting Irish in yardage by a 296-244 margin — and they won the first down battle by a 16-14 margin. Notre Dame benefited from a +2 net turnover margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Just how impressive was this victory against a  Georgia team with an inexperienced quarterback and no first-team All-Americans for the first time in years? The one clear difference between these two Spiderman programs pointing at each other is that Penn State does have more experience in these heavyweight showdown fights against elite competition. They played Ohio State and Michigan for many years in a row with "weight of the world" stakes since the loser was likely eliminated from the four-team college football playoff. They did not play the Wolverines this season — but they did face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. While they lost to both the Ducks and the Buckeyes, both losses were by one scoring possession. What are those analogous experiences for Notre Dame under Freeman? Granted, they had the Lou Holtz Bowl last year against Ohio State (when Ryan Day called out Holtz after the game in his rant about “toughness”) — marred by the 10-men on the field debacle when trying to stop the Buckeyes winning touchdown. In a game big game last season against Clemson, the Irish quacky fell behind by 18 points in last year’s big game against Clemson. The quality of Notre Dame’s competition in Freeman’s three years: (1) Ohio State last year (2) Georgia last week; (3) the other Clemson game three years ago (4) one of the mediocre USC teams (5) Indiana two weeks ago?!? (6) Navy this year? You get the point. I worry that this is the game when the smaller Fighting Irish defensive line gets exposed by a physical offensive line that the Nittany Lions possess. The season-ending injury to rugged defensive tackle Rylie Mills really hurts for this contest. Led by running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State rushed for 293 yards against Oregon. The Nittany Lions lack explosive threat from their wide receivers, but they still rank third in the nation in Pass Success Rate with quarterback Drew Allar. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 360 yards against the Notre Dame defense. Defensive end Abdul Carter may be a top-five pick in the NFL draft — and he is probably the best defensive lineman the Irish offensive line will face this season. Can the Irish win this game if it is close without getting more from their passing game? Quarterback Riley Leonard only passed for 90 yards last week -- but that 17-0 point swing in that magical minute gave the offense the security blanket they needed to survive scoring just two more field goals the rest of the way. Notre Dame lacks explosiveness from their wide receivers as well — but they lack the talent at tight end that Penn State has with Tyler Warren.

FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have been knocking on the door for years under head coach James Franklin. I suspect Penn State is at the point where they can see “If we just do this, then we can beat Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and everyone else.” Does Notre Dame have that same level of conviction of “thinking they see it” or merely hoping/wishing that they are finally there after beating Georgia (and, if so, does that instigate a short-term letdown since they finally feel they have arrived)? And this afternoon there are reports of a flu bug in the Irish locker room. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. With more big-game experience and with more top-level NFL talent, they find a way to finally open that door. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Penn State ESPN Special with Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273) in the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-2) has won four games in a row after their 22-19 upset win against Texas as a 3-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 7th. Notre Dame (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 27-17 win against Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a strange Georgia team this season. None of their players were consensus All-Americans which is a first for head coach Kirby Smart in his ninth year running the program. But the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent — and they will be the more talented team on the field today. But what this team lacks in star power this season, it makes up for in grit. The Bulldogs have won four games this season after trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. The season-ending injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a tough blow — but the team still rallied from a 6-3 halftime deficit to beat Texas with sophomore Gunner Stockton under center. The loss of Beck will certainly remove any level of complacency for the rest of the roster — everyone has to step up. And it’s not like Stockton is a bum. He is a four-star recruit who college football analyst Phil Steele listed as his second-rated quarterback in the 2023 class. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half against the Longhorns. He is a dual-threat so expect him to be used in the ground game. The Bulldogs may have an initial edge in this game since offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has had almost a month to develop a new game plan specific to his skillset. He will lack the vertical threat in the passing game that Beck offered — but against the Fighting Irish whose strength is their secondary, perhaps that is a blessing in disguise. Besides, it’s not as if Georgia’s blueprint for success under Smart is a gunslinging quarterback. The program that has won national championships with Stetson Bennett and reached the championship game with Jake Fromm will be just fine if Stockton is only a vanilla Jake Fromm (which, I know, is redundant). With Nick Saban retired and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL, Smart is hands down the best coach in college football — and that starts schematically and continues with preparation and then motivation. Now let’s talk about Marcus Freeman whose biggest victory in his three seasons as Notre Dame’s head coach was when they beat the Hoosiers 12 days ago. The only team that finished in the College Football Playoff Committee’s top 25 final rankings was Army — and that was before they got upset by Navy. While I don’t blame them for Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, and Louisville not meeting preseason expectations, I don’t give them a ton of credit for beating them either. The Fighting Irish are Flat Track Bullies whose physical style of play overwhelms most of their opponents — but now they play a team that is bigger, more skilled, and who play better competition on a week-to-week basis. And now they are without their best pass rusher after defensive tackle Rylie Mills’ season-ending injury against Indiana. Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: If a college football team is playing in January, then they are likely to be big games (save for the few minor bowl games being played in the next few days). Georgia has played seven games in January under Smart — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 7 contests. Notre Dame has only played one game in January under Freeman — and they did not cover. The Bulldogs were built for this moment while the Irish are hoping they are prepared for the step up in competition. 25* CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272) in the Rose Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-2) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 42-17 victory against Tennessee as a 7-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Oregon (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 45-37 victory against Penn State as a 3-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State found new life after their demoralizing loss to Michigan by making a statement in front of their home fans and the nation in their destruction of the Volunteers. I was on the wrong side in that one with one of the biggest reasons being the vulnerability of their banged-up offensive line against an outstanding Tennessee defensive front. But inserting left guard Luke Montgomery into the starting lineup and then rotating the embattled Tegra Tshabola with previous starting left guard Austin Siereveld at right guard. That worked wonders as quarterback Will Howard was not sacked once. Credit goes to Chip Kelly who constructed a game plan that got Howard to get the ball out fast to help protect him and the offensive line. The Buckeyes have renewed momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win by 17 or more points. I think the big edge comes in the coaching staff making adjustments for this rematch of Oregon’s 32-31 victory as a 3-point underdog on October 12th. Kelly has two stints as a head coach in the NFL — and he has coached in national championship games when he was running the Oregon program. That level of experience and savvy makes a difference. And then Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is one of the best in the business. He made a great adjustment after the Oregon game by moving nickel back Jordan Hancock to a single high safety role in his Cover-1 scheme. That opened up space for super start safety Caleb Downs to play all over the field including stunts up front. Ohio State has played three teams with an offense ranked in the top 25 according to the SP+ metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Buckeyes held those three opponents to just 45 combined points. Oregon’s brain trust is simply not the same. Head coach Dan Lanning is lauded as one of the best minds in college football, but the 38-year old simply lacks experience in big games like this outside serving as Kirby Smart’s defensive coordinator at Georgia for three seasons. This is the Duck’s first playoff game under Lanning. They lost both their games against Washington last season. The win at home against Ohio State is his best win on his resume. Offensive coordinator Will Stein in his second year with the program after the 34-year old served as the offensive coordinator at UTSA. Defensive coordinator Josh Lupoi does have NFL experience along with a stint under Nick Saban as the defensive coordinator at Alabama — but he does not have the same talent level with his unit as Knowles does. The Ducks defense has regressed in the second half of the season. Penn State torched them for 518 yards of offense. They have called outside the top 50 in Contested Catches Allowed and Broken Tackles Allowed. They rank 92nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They only sacked Howard once in the first meeting. Lanning seems to realize this concern and managed games realizing he has to win shootouts with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon scores 35.9 Points-Per-Game and average 278.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 31 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Ohio State-Oregon ESPN Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270) in the Peach Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football  Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-24 victory against Clemson as a 13.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Arizona State (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 45-19 upset win against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 7th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this spot for the Sun Devils. This was a team riding high with momentum with six straight victories that transformed their 5-2 season. Now they shake off the rust against a battle-tested Longhorns team who just played another big game 11 days ago. As it is, Arizona State is a team that was thriving off great starts. Except against Central Florida during their six-game winning streak, they raced out to a lead at the end of the first quarter by an average of +7.6 points — and they had leads of at least three touchdowns in three of those contests. Turnover luck has also played a role. They have 11 takeaways in their last six games with only two turnovers themselves — and that +9 net turnover margin leads the nation. Nothing like an extended break to wake up the Regression Gods. And this is a team that simply lacks big-game experience. Their highest-profile game was against the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game — and while they did play their best game of the season in that contest, that was more likely an outlier than a feature of coming attractions. The Big 12 is now several notches below the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma switching conferences. Arizona State’s highest-profile victory in non-conference play was a 30-23 win against a Mississippi State team that was at the bottom of the SEC. And it is this lack of experience on the biggest stages where the team cohesion of a group assembled mostly through the transfer portal plays a role. Of the 40 players for second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham who logged-in at least 100 snaps this season, only two of these players were on the roster in December of 2022 at the end of the Herm Edwards era. This team is now without their best wide receiver Jordyn Tyson due to injury — he accounted for 20% of the total yardage for this team this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt is a gamer who punished Iowa State’s defense when they stacked the box to slow down running back Cam Skattebo — but now he faces a much stiffer test in the Longhorns’ secondary. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game. Texas is one of the most experienced teams in the nation when it comes to dealing with high stakes like this. They have 15 starters back from the team that lost to Washington in the College Football Semifinals last season — and they are the only team in this year’s playoff to have competed in the playoffs last year. They have already been through the gauntlet of playing Georgia twice this season — and they now benefit from playing in the first round of the playoffs last week. The Longhorns offense comes into this game with renewed confidence after generating 494 yards against a good Clemson defense. Texas should start fast being comfortable in this environment — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against non-conference opponents.  

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State needs to keep this game close so that they can continue to rely on Skattebo. They are not equipped to keep up with the Longhorns if they have to bank on Leavitt and their passing attack — especially now without their best wide receiver Tyson. The Sun Devils generate 200.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 yards-Per-Carry. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 20* CFB Texas-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Penn State are flat track bullies that almost always take care of business in spots like this. Head coach James Franklin minimizes unnecessary risk-taking — which gives life to underdogs if the over-aggressiveness fails — and his teams tend to not beat themselves with mistakes. Their patience eventually gets rewarded — and their superior talent eventually begins to pull away on the scoreboard. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 22 of their 30 games under Franklin when favored by 10.5 to 21 points — and all of his teams in his head coaching career going back to his previous tenure at Vanderbilt have covered the point spread in 28 of their 37 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. I do not like this spot for Boise State. As a Group of Five program, they do not get many opportunities to play in heavyweight matchups — and they may come into this game rusty having not played in 25 days. The Nittany Lions usually play Michigan and Ohio State every season — and they got a nice 10 days off for this game so they are relatively rested. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos are shellshocked early. They lack a signature victory this season having only three power conference opponents on their schedule. They do not recruit at the same level as top-tier Big Ten or SEC programs. Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen may have thrown 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions — but he only has nine Big-Time Throws and has committed 16 Turnover-Worthy Plays this season. It gets even worse under pressure where he has only one Big-Time Throw but eight Turnover-Worthy Plays. Now here comes the Nittany Lions loaded defensive line led by a future first-round NFL pick in defensive end Abdul Carter. I don’t put too much weight on their three-point loss at Oregon early in the season since the Ducks were still working out some early kinks with their offensive line. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight bowl games. 10* CFB Penn State-Boise State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Florida (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 35-28 upset loss at Rice as a 5.5-point favorite on November 30th. San Jose State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-31 win against Stanford as a 2.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Field in Honolulu, Hawai’i.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranks seventh in pace of play this season. He should have his team very motivated to close this season out with another bowl victory to secure a second-straight 7-6 campaign to help with recruiting. The Bulls do have three starters on defense in the transfer portal and not on the depth chart for this game: defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli, safety Tawfiq Byard, left guard Andrew Kilfoyl. Quarterback Byrum Brown is listed as questionable to return after being out with an injury since Week Five. He has taken part in practices — but I am still comfortable with investing in the Bulls if it is sophomore Bryce Archie under center. With Golesh as their head coach, South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games played after a bye week. Furthermore, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home when listed in the +/- 3-point range under Golesh. San Jose State faces the more significant loss of players with star wide receiver Nick Nash opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. He received 37% of the targets and 35% of the yards — so his loss is significant. Center Hudson Mesa is also opting out which leaves their porous offensive line even more suspect. The Spartans are also losing two starters on defense who entered the transfer portal: cornerbacks D.J. Harvey and Michael Dansby. First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo had a great bowl record in his 15-year tenure previously at Navy — but his teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps it is something about the favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl getting distracted by the environment but underdogs in this bowl game have pulled off upsets and covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 incarnations of this game. 8* CFB South Florida-San Jose State ESPN Special with South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 36-23 victory at Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite on November 30th. Ohio State (10-2) picks themselves off the mat after their 13-10 upset loss at home to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Some pundits — like former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer — were claiming in August that this Buckeyes team may have the best roster in the history of college football. Cut to four months later — and while the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have significant issues at quarterback and on the offensive line. I was always a bit skeptical of Kansas State transfer Will Howard. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson late last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse as he became the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan last year — but there is a good argument to be had that he was and is the better quarterback over Howard. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. Howard completed only 19 of 33 passes against the Wolverines three weeks ago and threw two interceptions. He is not the best game manager and delivery mechanism to unlock all the dynamic talent the Buckeyes enjoy at wide receiver. Clearly, head coach Ryan Day did not trust Howard against Michigan and assumed their defense would bail them out. But the even bigger concern is with their banged-up offensive line. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the Oregon game. Center Seth McLaughlin, their prized transfer from Alabama, suffered a season-ending injury in November. These injuries exposed the depth and talent issues the Buckeyes have with this unit. The dirty little secret is that offensive line coach Justin Frye is not getting the job done. In his third year with the program after coming over from UCLA where he held the same position for Chip Kelly (who now is the offensive coordinator for his former pupil, Day), he is failing to develop the players he has recruited. Even worse, recruiting is down. Only one of his players, sophomore Luke Montgomery, was ranked in the top 100 players overall. The average rank of his 2024 offensive line class was 320.5 at 247 Sports Composite which is way below the other position rooms at Ohio State. Michigan registered four tackles for loss and 13 quarterback pressures against this group — and their star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined to run for only 67 yards in that game. Not only are the Buckeyes down their top two linemen now, but there are also two weak links on the line after left guard Austin Siereveld and right guard Tegra Tshabola got exposed by Michigan. It looks like Montgomery will get his first career start tonight at left guard while Tshabola (rated the team’s worst-rated pass blocker and run blocker by Pro Football Focus) may split time with Siereveld at right guard. Maybe this is an upgrade — but cohesion and chemistry now become bigger concerns as well. This group may now have to face the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen will give Tennessee a big edge late in this game. Meyer thinks the Buckeyes' game plan has to be to rely on quick passes on nearly every down to neutralize the Volunteers' huge edge at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the cold weather in the low-20s with some wind gusts up to 15 MPH will make this challenge even more difficult. Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has an 11-2 record as a starter after winning last year’s Citrus Bowl against the stout Iowa defense by a 35-0 score — and he led the Volunteers to a win against Alabama. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. Under head coach Josh Heupel, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 19 games against teams outside the SEC. And while the Buckeyes hold their opponents to just 2.95 Yards-Per-Carry, the Vols have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 3.25 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: I certainly considered the bounce-back factor for Ohio State to get the bad taste out of their mouth after the humiliating loss to the Wolverines — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game. Even worse, in the 4 games after an upset loss in Day’s tenure, the Buckeyes failed to cover the point spread 3 times. Like the teenage boys going to spring break wearing Big Johnson t-shirts, Day seems to hope that he just mentions how tough his team is a few dozen more times (and maybe even challenge octogenarian Lou Holtz into a fight), that this will manifest toughness in his players. The toughness problem is now with his players — so I remain skeptical that he is the galvanizing leader equipped for this moment. 10* CFB Tennessee-Ohio State ABC-TV Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Indiana (11-1) bounced back from their loss to Ohio State with a 66-0 victory against Purdue as a 29-point favorite to conclude their regular season on November 30th. Notre Dame (11-1) rides a ten-game winning streak after their 49-35 win at USC as a 7-point favorite to complete their regular season on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The challenging aspect of assessing this Indiana is determining just how good they are after playing a schedule that had only two teams finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top fifty. With head coach Curt Cignetti bringing with him 13 players from his James Madison squad from last year, are these Hoosiers just a glorified, albeit talented, Group of Five opponent — or does the mix of 30 transfers onto a Power Five/Four conference roster enough to make this group a legitimate contender against the best teams in the country. I thought their 20-15 win against Michigan was impressive. While the Wolverines were held back by the lack of a quality quarterback, they were good to outstanding everywhere else on the field — and that is why they upset Ohio State in Columbus. The Michigan defense remained elite all season. If the Hoosiers lose that game, then Alabama probably takes their spot in the playoff. But Kurtis Rourke — a 24-year-old quarterback with tons of experience — led them down the field in key drives to withstand the pressure and win that game. Indiana’s 38-15 loss at Ohio State exposed some warts — but the Buckeyes’ have much more future NFL talent level than what the Fighting Irish bring to this game. Even still, the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes explosive offense to just 316 total yards — and the Buckeyes ran for just 115 yards on 29 carries. Interestingly, Indiana only trailed Ohio State by a 14-7 score going into halftime — and the combined first-half scores in both games put the Hoosiers up by a 24-17 margin. That is a reflection of how well Cignetti and his coaching staff prepared this team for those showdowns. It was in the second half that things went south with them getting outscored by a 36-11 margin in both games. But if something similar happens tonight and Indiana starts out well, then I suspect the humongous pressure that Notre Dame faces in this game begins to weigh heavily. This Fighting Irish has no claim on playing a more difficult schedule. Under head coach Marcus Freeman, they have been flat-track bullies — but I continue to wonder what the biggest win has been for this team with him as a head coach. Nine of their victories during their ten-game winning streak were by 14 or more points. Was the biggest victory in Freeman’s tenure that opening victory at Texas A&M this season. If that is not the one, then it probably prior wins against less-than-stellar Clemson or USC teams. Seriously. And there are always these bad clunkers along the way in pressure moments. After upsetting the Aggies, the Fighting Irish returned home to get upset by Northern Illinois despite being a four-touchdown favorite. They got upset as a double-digit favorite against Marshall and Stanford in his first season coaching the Irish. They laid eggs and blew their chance at the College Football Playoffs with clunkers against Louisville and Clemson last year. Even in their 49-35 win against the Trojans to end the season, they needed a 99-yard and a 100-yard interception returned for touchdowns to flip the script and pull away. USC (and former UNLV) quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 360 yards against them — and the Trojans generated 557 yards overall in the loss. I am a Riley Leonard skeptic — and the Notre Dame quarterback saw only 13% of his completions go for more than 20 yards this season, ranking 116th in the nation. The weather will contribute to a lack of explosive plays tonight. The Fighting Irish’s last two opponents ran for 197 and 207 yards against them.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the 20s in South Bend tonight with the wind chill dropping into the teens. I suspect the Hoosiers keep this a close game in the first half — and when the realization that another big upset may be brewing on Freeman’s watch, I expect things will get very tight. I give the edge at quarterback and coaching to Indiana. Cignetti will have this team ready and prepared to win — schematically and emotionally. His teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games on the road and 5 of their 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range in his career. 10* CFB Indiana-Notre Dame ABC-TV Special with Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204) in the LA Bowl. THE SITUATION: California (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-6 loss at SMU as a 12.5-point underdog on November 30th. UNLV (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 21-7 loss at Boise State as a 4-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal head coach Justin Wilcox was on the hot seat entering the 2023-24 season but he oversaw his team rally when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. It has been a challenge this season for a team on the west coast playing many of their games on the East Coast in their first year in the ACC. But Wilcox got this group to a second straight bowl game with six wins — and now this game is an opportunity to for the Golden Bears to win their first bowl game in five seasons. There are questions at quarterback after Fernando Mendoza entered the transfer portal and backup Chandler Rogers is questionable to play after getting injured in the game against the Mustangs. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. He brought in C.J. Harris in the portal who did have some starting experience as a backup to Kurtis Rourke at Ohio. He has split reps with freshman E.J. Caminong. This game may be an opportunity for running back Jaydn Ott to re-establish himself after an underwhelming injury-riddled season. He rushed for 1305 yards last season. One of the priorities for Wilcox this season was to reverse the negative slide on the defensive side of the ball after the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations last year by ranking 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 Yards-Per-Game. This season, Cal gave up only 341.3 total YPG which resulted in 22.2 PPG. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Rebels are a program that is very much in flux after Barry Odom departed to take the Purdue head coaching job after two seasons in Las Vegas. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion will not call plays tonight after he was passed over for the head coaching job when the administration hired Dan Mullen. Wide receivers coach Del Alexander is the interim head coach for this game. It appears unlikely that wide receiver Ricky White or strong safety Jalen Catalon will play in this game since they are likely to turn to the NFL. After a flat effort in the MWC Championship Game and the disruption in their coaching staff, UNLV is a shaky favorite in this game.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points in Wilcox’s tenure. 8* CFB California-UNLV ESPN Special with the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville State (8-4) had won eight games in a row after their 19-17 loss on the road against the Hilltoppers as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville State had already clinched the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game before last week’s game so they had nothing at stake. They got to run the base offense and keep things vanilla while saving all their tricks for this rematch. Head coach Rich Rodriguez certainly picked up a few things about the Hilltoppers defense that he could exploit — and rather than take advantage of that knowledge last week in key situations, all those plays remain uncorked for tonight’s game. Even given that, the Gamecocks generated 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which was more than Western Kentucky’s 5.1 YPP mark. Jacksonville State’s offense was only on the field for 23:23 minutes of that game which explains why they got outgained in raw yardage. The Gamecocks only converted 2 of their 13 third down attempts — and they failed to convert on five of their six attempts on third down with six yards or less to go. Look for Jacksonville State to be better on third down tonight — especially against this Hilltoppers defense that ranks 111th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed. The Gamecocks are a run-first offense that runs the ball on 66% of their snaps while playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the nation to wear down opposing defenses. This approach was effective last week as they generated 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry for 229 rushing yards. Western Kentucky allows 208.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 YPC — and they rank 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Jacksonville State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams who allow 200 or more rushing YPG. Gamecocks’ quarterback Tyler Huff is questionable tonight after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. I don’t know if Rodriguez was just cautious with him or if he really may not play tonight — he is a game-time decision. We have to assume he does not play (or his mobility is not 100%) and be pleasantly surprised if he can go and be effective. His backup is Logan Smothers who is a former blue-chip recruit who transferred in from Nebraska. He is in the second-year in this program and split time as the starting quarterback despite battling injuries and Rodriguez playing the hot hand. Smothers is not as dynamic a runner as Huff although he did rush for 32 yards with a touchdown on five carries last week — but he may offer more in the passing game. Rodriguez has plenty of running backs in his zone-read spread offensive attack. Jacksonville State generates 461.0 YPG when playing at home which is resulting in 37.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +14.2 PPG and outgaining them by +99.3 net YPG. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky had to win last week to get this opportunity to win the conference championship — so they had to deploy their best offensive and defensive looks. Running back Elijah Young ran the ball 19 times which was the third-highest mark for him all season and just the fifth time all year he ran the ball at least 15 times. Despite having their offense on the field for over 36 minutes, they still needed a 21-yard field goal to win the game with three seconds left. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times for 301 yards but only averaged 6.4 Yards-Per-Completion. Now with a week to study that game tape along with the weather dropping into the 20s tonight in Jacksonville, Alabama, it will be more difficult for the Hilltoppers to move the ball in the air. As it is, Western Kentucky has struggled on offense lately as they have only generated 336.3 total YPG in their last three games for 15.7 PPG which is more than 50 YPG and 11.0 PPG below their season averages. On the road, the Hilltoppers are getting outscored by -3.8 PPG and getting outgained by -81.0 PPG. Their defense on the road is the problem as they are allowing their home hosts to gain 468.2 YPG which is resulting in 30.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Revenge is not a huge factor in these Conference Championship Games as teams looking to avenge a same-season loss are a flat 27-27 ATS since 2005 in those situations. But, it is telling that 36 of those 54 teams motivated by revenge improved their game score by +7.7 PPG in those contests. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season while the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the second half of the season — and those trends suggests that Rodriguez and his staff do a better job with adjustments than Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton and his staff. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). THE SITUATION: LSU (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 24-17 win against Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-3 upset win at home against Alabama as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU dominated the Commodores in yardage last week by generating 471 yards of offense and outgaining them by +163 net yards. Now with head coach Brian Kelly facing heavy scrutiny from the fan base from an underwhelming season, expect a big effort from his players on Senior Day. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after winning at home in their last game. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. Playing in the Death Valley is always tough — especially in night games. The Tigers are 5-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +8.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +103.2 net Yards-Per-Game. LSU generates 455.7 total YPG at home which results in 31.0 PPG. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is poised for a big game after completing 28 of 37 passes for 332 yards last week against Vanderbilt. He is averaging over 300 passing YPG with 23 touchdown passes. He faces a Sooners defense that ranks just 53rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but that probably might just encourage the Tigers to not rely on their ground game that ranks last in the SEC by averaging only 117.6 rushing YPG. The Sooners only gained 325 yards last week against the Crimson Tide — but they dominated the time of possession by running the ball for 257 yards. Quarterback Jackson Arnold ran the ball 25 times himself for 131 yards — but he may now be fatigued this week after that effort. That game was the first time all season where he averaged more than 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arnold only passed 11 times in that game for 68 passing yards. The Oklahoma offense is too one-dimensional with poor pass protection and injuries at the wide receiver position. The Sooners looked primed for an emotional letdown tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win against a conference opponent. They go back on the road where they are just 1-4 this season with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only generating 278.5 total YPG away from home which is resulting in a mere 16.8 PPG. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road in November. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kelly’s teams throughout his coaching tenure are 28-11-3 ATS in 42 games played at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-5) has lost two games in a row and three of their last four contests after their 27-16 loss to UNLV as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 24-21 loss at California as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has played the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference the last two weeks — and they held leads late in the third quarter before fading late against superior rosters. Against a Boise State team currently ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff, they held a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter before giving up the final four touchdowns in that game. Last week, the Spartans rebounded to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Rebels scored the final two touchdowns in that contest. Quarterback Walker Egget had an ugly boxscore with just four completions in 22 pass attempts for San Jose State — but the wet and sloppy conditions should get much of the blame for those rough numbers. Eggett has one of the best weapons in the nation with wide receiver Nick Nash. It has been a successful first season under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo despite a challenging conference schedule. They are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +14.5 net Yards-Per-Game. At home, they are outscoring their opponents by +3.5 PPG and outgaining them by +35.7 net YPG. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points — and Niumatalolo’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games in his career when favored by up to seven points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter last week and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. But the strides made this season have been disappointing. They only have two wins against FBS teams with their third victory being against Cal Poly Slo. They are getting outscored by -12.5 PPG and outgained by -93.1 net YPG. Returning starting quarterback Ashton Daniels is completing only 62% of his passes with only nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Last year’s defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG — and despite 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps back for the second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April, they are still surrendering 412.3 total YPG which has resulted in 39.3 PPG. The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss to a conference opponent. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Stanford only scores 19.2 PPG on the road — and their home hosts are generation 429.0 total YPG against them resulting in 39.2 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they are giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They rank 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. The Cardinal offense has not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they have failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They convert on just 34% of their third downs. They rank 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss. The Spartans rank 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss. San Jose State ranks eighth in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Opposing Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation may be an issue for the Cardinal on the road against a Group of Five opponent in this lost season. The Spartans would love to knock off their FBS geographical rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Blowout Game of the Month with the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 24-14 upset loss at home against Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (5-5) has lost three games in a row after their 34-17 loss at Iowa State as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State outgained the Sun Devils last week by +14 net yards but could not overcome a -2 net turnover margin. They return home for Senior Day — and they still have an outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game after Colorado and BYU lost this afternoon. As it is, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. They are still outscoring their guests by +15.6 Points-Per-Game when playing at home by holding these visitors to just 16.8 PPG. Led by quarterback Avery Johnson, they are generating 458.4 total YPG at home which is resulting in 31.4 PPG. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to conference rivals. The Bearcats rank 42nd in the nation by averaging 182.2 rushing YPG — but now they face a Wildcats defense that ranks second in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 13th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Cincinnati is getting outgained on the road by -19.0 net YPG and outscored by -2.8 PPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). THE SITUATION: Army (9-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 14-3 victory at North Texas as a 6.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 9th. Notre Dame (9-1) has won eight straight games after their 35-14 win against Virginia as a 21-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a very dangerous game for the Fighting Irish. With an upset loss already on their resume against Northern Illinois, a second upset loss tonight could very well ruin their playoff aspirations. They are currently ranked eighth in the playoff rankings — but they do not have a victory against a team in the 12-team field. Their most impressive victory was their opening game win at Texas A&M. Their next best wins were against who, Georgia Tech? Louisville? They did crush Navy a month ago — but they also benefited from six takeaways that completely took the Midshipmen out of their preferred game script. Notre Dame enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win against the Cavaliers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games away from home in November. I don’t love it when teams play a service academy team without the benefit of an extra bye week to prepare for their unique spread option attacks. Certainly, it helps that they already prepared for and then played Navy — but Army head coach Jeff Monken will study that game tape to tweak and adjust his offensive schemes with his specific flexbone attack for this game. The Black Knights run five core plays — zone dive, follow, midline triple option, rocket and kick — and while opponents know what is coming, Monken is able to use misdirection and varying blocking concepts to throw these opposing defenses off. There is a reason that Army has covered the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. The Black Knights lead the nation in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards — so their prowess with their ground game is not simply that they run the ball a majority of the time to rack up big yardage numbers. Running back Kanye Udoh generates +3.4 yards after the first contact this season. Quarterback Bryson Daily missed the Air Force game to an undisclosed injury — but he is back and should be back to full strength coming off the bye week. He is effective with play-action passes. While Army is unbeaten, I think all the pressure is on the Fighting Irish. The Black Knights are not in the current playoff bracket given their underwhelming strength of schedule — but pulling off the upset tonight may be exactly what they need to elevate into the top-12. Army has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They rank 25th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Irish are just 91st in Pass Success Rate on Passing Downs. And while Notre Dame leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed, that elite skillset is neutralized by a run-heavy team like the Black Knights. The Fighting Irish are giving up only 11.4 Points-Per-Game — but Army has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not allowing more than 17 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games away from home after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. The Black Knights slow the game down by averaging more than 33 seconds per play which limits their opponent’s possessions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field with the Total set from 42.5-49.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not play at a fast pace either — and that makes all these points with the underdog even more valuable. Service Academies are 44-26-2 ATS in their last 72 games as an underdog of +14.5 or more points. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). THE SITUATION: Kansas (2-6) has won two of their last three games after their 45-36 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (9-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 22-21 victory at Utah as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas generated 532 yards against the Cyclones last week and outgained them by +71 net yards. They are playing much better over their last three games as they seem to have clearly benefited from their bye week that preceded this run. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is playing much better after some inconsistent play early on when he might have been less than 100% health-wise. He completed 12 of 24 passes for 295 yards with two touchdown passes last week — and he added 68 rushing yards with another touchdown with his legs. The Jayhawks should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in their last game. They have played six straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after playing three or more Overs in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. BYU’s good fortunes continued last week as they survived a potential game-ending sack with a defensive holding penalty on fourth down which kept their final drive alive. We were on the Utes last week so fortunately they still covered the field goal point spread. The Cougars got outgained by -80 net yards but benefited from a +3 net turnover margin. But BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Cougars have been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a now +10 net turnover margin. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net Points-Per-Game, Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (4-5) had won three games in a row before a 28-20 upset loss at Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 2nd. James Madison (7-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-7 win against Georgia State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: Old Dominion outgained the Mountaineers two weeks ago by +102 net yards after generating 498 yards against them. A -3 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. The result was the Monarchs’ fourth loss by one scoring possession this season including an impressive four-point loss at South Carolina in August to open their season. With an extra week to prepare, they should be ready to pull the upset this afternoon. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enduring a net turnover margin of -2 or worse in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off their bye week. The Monarchs have been much more explosive on offense since dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph took over under center in October. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 332 yards with two touchdown passes (and an interception) against Appalachian State — and he added an additional 42 rushing yards. Old Dominion is generating 378.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.4. Points-Per-Game this season — but in their last five games since Joseph took over as the starter, they are averaging 437.0 total YPG which is producing 29.8 PPG. The Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. James Madison has registered two straight wins against two bad teams in Southern Mississippi and Georgia State in their last two games. They caught the Panthers last week at the tail end of a rare four-game road swing which was pretty fortunate. This team has been catching breaks all season as they lead the nation with a +18 net turnover margin. Averaging a +2 net turnover margin per game is simply not sustainable — so I am expecting the Regression Gods to make their presence known sooner rather than later. As it is, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett has 21 touchdown passes and only three interceptions this season — but most of that production came earlier in the season when he registered 11 Big-Time throws and only three turnover-worthy plays in his first four games. In his last five games against Sun Belt opponents, Barrett has only six Big-Time throws with six turnover-worthy plays. The Dukes rank just 91st in Pass Success Rate so they may hope to get most of their yards on the ground — but Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. James Madison has only scored 33 combined points in their two conference games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes are outscoring their opponents by +18.9 PPG — but the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Ricky Rahne, the Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 22 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 21 games as an underdog in Sun Belt Conference play with ten outright upset victories. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-point favorite back two weeks ago on October 26th. BYU (8-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 37-24 upset win at Central Florida as a 3-point underdog on October 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first four games this season, injuries have played a role in them losing four games in a row — but their last three losses to Arizona State, TCU, and then the Cougars were all by one scoring possession. The Utes did outgain Houston by +17 net yards by holding them to just 289 yards of offense. Utah still has an outstanding defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are holding their opponents to 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 16.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank seventh in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 11th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Additionally, they rank sixth in Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank second in 3rd Down Defense. The problem has been the offense with quarterback Cam Rising once again out of the season with injuries. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig stepped down a few weeks ago — so interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has used the extra week to adjust the offense to the skillsets of either Isaac Wilson or freshman Brandon Rose. In Whittingham, I trust, to right the ship this week. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games with an extra week to prepare under Whittingham. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. BYU has been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a +7 net turnover margin. They have also converted on 15 of their 18 fourth down attempts. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out — and it could get ugly for the Cougars when it happens. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes — but he has not registered a “Big Time Throw” all season and has seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cougars have an excellent pass defense that ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — but that is not the strength of this Utes team. Utah wants to run the football — and BYU ranks just 84th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 87th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Utes have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who are not allowing more than 5.75 YPA. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams not giving up more than 310 YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Whittingham will have his team ready to play in the Holy War with the motivation to ruin BYU’s perfect season. Utah has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games as an underdog getting four or more points under Whittingham. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-1) has won five games in a row after their 28-27 victory in overtime at Duke as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 41-13 win against Syracuse as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: SMU endured a brutal -6 net turnover margin against the Blue Devils last week — but they still won that game because they won the yardage battle by +76 yards. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after beating a conference rival. SMU was very active in the transfer portal two off-seasons ago with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. It was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC and they have won their first four games in the conference this season. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after the first month of the season. Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 net turnover margin last week — and that helped them overcome only gaining 217 yards in that contest and losing the yardage battle -110 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in ACC play.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog — and SMU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-17 loss at Indiana as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. USC (4-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 42-20 win at home against Rutgers as a 14-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington fell behind early in Bloomington last week when Will Rogers threw an interception that the Hoosiers returned for a 67-yard touchdown. The Huskies won the yardage battle by +6 net yards while holding the explosive Indiana offense to just 312 yards. Washington leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Huskies return home for a critical game for bowl eligibility with tough assignments still looming at Oregon and at Penn State. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Despite their record, the Huskies have a powerful and balanced offensive attack. They rank eighth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. They also rank 15th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate and eighth in Line Yards. Running back Jonah Coleman is generating 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He should generate plenty of yards against a Trojans defense that ranks 59th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 61st in Line Yards Allowed. USC only ranks 78th in Havoc Rate as well — so Rogers should also have a good game. USC will be playing for the seventh straight week with their bye coming up next week — and they have traveled to Michigan and Maryland during that stretch. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating a conference rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 10 road games when favored in head coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure. USC has lost all three of their games this season as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Jedd Fisch has had plenty of success in situations like this. His teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games at home as an underdog including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home getting up to seven points. Fisch’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Kansas State minus the points versus Kansas. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after a 45-18 victory at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory at home against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The Jayhawks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Take Kansas State minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month last night with Chicago’s UPSET WIN against Milwaukee! Frank is on a 5 of 8 (63%) College Football run to continue his 8 of 13 (62%) CFB winning mark — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 48-20 upset loss at Florida as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Auburn (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Kentucky got upset at home to what looks like a pretty good Vanderbilt team two weeks ago — and they laid an egg last week by getting upset for the second straight week at Florida against the Gators. Look for head coach Mark Stoops to right the ship tonight. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting upset by an SEC rival in the Stoops era. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after getting beat in their last contest. Kentucky has been inconsistent with bad losses like last week — but remember that this group has also upset Ole Miss this season and lost by only one point at home to Georgia. Their defense is the best unit on the field in this one — they are holding their opponents to just 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are outscoring their opponents by +6.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are outgaining their guests by +87.6 net YPG. Kentucky is very tough to move the ball on when they are playing at home — they are limiting their visitors to just 231.2 total YPG resulting in 14.0 PPG. This is a good matchup for the Wildcats. Led by running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, they rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate. Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has been inconsistent — but he has been effective in play-action with the Wildcats ranking 21st in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Tigers rank 44th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games. Auburn is a mess after losing for their fourth game in a row. Their victory against New Mexico last month represents their only win against a team from the FBS. Second-year head coach Hugh Freeze is at risk of getting fired — he replaced a head coach who was let go in his second season. The vibes aren’t good. The Tigers blew a 17-6 lead entering the fourth quarter to Missouri — and they also blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma. These problems speak to a lack of team confidence and chemistry with the players making too many mistakes down the stretch. Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions. Auburn wants to run the ball behind running ball Jarquez Hunter -- but he will face one of the best defensive fronts in the FBS tonight. Kentucky ranks 17th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also rank 16th in Havoc Rate — and that spells trouble for the mistake-ridden Tigers team that ranks 103rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. To compound matters, Auburn is playing their third straight game away from home.

FINAL TAKE: This is simply a bad matchup for the Tigers who struggle against stout defenses that thrive in stopping the run. The Wildcats are giving up only 105.7 rushing YPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams not giving up more than 120 rushing yards per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents like this. Lastly, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who do not give up more than 310 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against opponents like this. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-24 loss at San Diego State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their loss to Oregon with their 62-30 victory as a 28-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i could be 4-1 with just a couple of breaks. Against both UCLA and then the Aztecs last week, they blew fourth quarter leads in eventual losses by three-point losses. They outgained San Diego State last week by +27 net yards. Quarterback Brayden Schager has seen his wide receivers drop 18 passes which is the most in the FBS. The Rainbow Warriors are a pretty good football team that is being lifted up by a surprisingly stout defense. Hawai’i ranks 12th in the nation Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank 14th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. Against FBS opponents, they are allowing just 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which ranks in the top 60 in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 309.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG and outgaining them by +50.8 net YPG. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games off a win by 17 or more points. The Broncos are lead by running back Ashton Jeanty who is a leading early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy — but they are vulnerable on defense. The Aggies gained 507 yards against them including 371 yards in the air from a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia Southern scored 45 points against them. They rank 106 in Pass Success Rate Allowed and outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed per Opponent Pass Attempt. They rank 92nd in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed — and the Rainbow Warriors rank a solid 40th in Finishing Drives. Overall, Boise State is surrendering 402.6 YPG which is resulting in 30.0 PPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. Led by Jeanty, the Boise State offense is explosive — but he did not play in the second half last week after getting rested in the second half earlier in the year against Portland State. With a big showdown with UNLV on deck, Jeanty is not likely to play if the Broncos are cruising — and that should set up, at worst, a decent back door cover opportunity when considering the state of the Boise State defense.

FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Tommy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents with two outright upset victories. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). THE SITUATION: LSU (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-10 victory against South Alabama as a 21-point favorite back on September 28th. Mississippi (5-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to win at South Carolina by a 27-3 score as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU has the benefit of the extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Head coach Brian Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 23 games with the benefit of the bye week. The Tigers offense is transitioning to a new run blocking scheme which will play to the strengths of freshman Caden Durham who is emerging as the team’s best running back. He rushed for 128 yards on just seven carries against the Jaguars two weeks ago. A more effective rushing attack will only help quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the passing game. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is completing over 50% of his passes of ten or more air yards. As it is, LSU ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — including Ole Miss’ 55-49 upset win at home as a 2.5-point underdog on September 30th last season. LSU has won 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent. 10* CFB Ole Miss-USC ABC-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in a 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite. Florida (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-13 upset victory against Central Florida as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Much of the shine has been taken off this Tennessee team after their supposed high-powered offense only managed to score 39 combined points in their last two games after putting up 191 combined points in their first three contests. But their last two games have been on the road against two of the better defenses in the nation against Oklahoma and Arkansas last week. Those are tough assignments for any quarterback — but especially for a freshman QB like Nico Iamaleava playing in hostile environments for the first time. Returning home should help the talented rookie where he has completed 32 of 44 passes (72.7%) with four touchdown passes, no interceptions, just one sack, and an 11.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. On the road, he has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) with three touchdown passes but two interceptions and seven sacks along with a 7.7 YPA average. Now Iamaleava gets to throw against a suspect Gators 'defense that ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. This is a nice get-right game for the Volunteers who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Tennessee was probably a bit overrated after their first three games at home — but this team is different under head coach Josh Heupel because they are finally legit on the defensive side of the football. The Volunteers are one of five teams in the nation holding their opponents to single digits with the 9.4 Points-Per-Game they are allowing. They rank second in the FBS by giving up just 227.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The tempo-free analytics are also quite good for this defense. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate Allowed. They rank second in Finishing Drives Allowed. They rank sixth in Havoc Rate. They rank 36th in Pass Success Rate Allowed — and while that is still pretty, pretty good, Florida is probably not the team to take advantage of this relative weakness. Florida does rank 20th in Pass Success Rate — but their embattled head coach Billy Napier is now rotating quarterbacks Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. Napier looked like he was about to get fired this month before Mississippi State and Central Florida popped up on the schedule. Both of those teams are struggling (especially the Bulldogs) — and that does place a grain or two of salt on their recent passing numbers. I worry about quarterbacks finding their rhythm when they are getting rotated in and out. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. Florida has a good pass rush — but their defense gets burned if the rush fails. The Gators rank outside the top 100 teams in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating, Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Third Down Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home as a favorite. 20* CFB Florida-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). THE SITUATION: California (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-9 loss at Florida State as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 21st. Miami (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-34 win against Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal was dealing with a bevy of injuries to begin the season — but they still upset Auburn on the road despite those issues. They are getting healthier now coming off the bye week. As it is, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games off a loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing on the road in their last game. Cal has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox. Miami trailed by a 34-24 score in the fourth quarter to the Hokies before rallying to win that game with a final touchdown with less than two minutes in the game. That Virginia Tech team entered the week with a losing record. The Hurricanes' strength of schedule does not look nearly as formidable from the view of the rearview mirror. Florida is a mess. South Florida has a losing record. Florida A&M and Ball State were easy ones. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win against an ACC rival. Fast starts are not uncommon for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games between Week Five and Week Nine of the season. Furthermore, head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games played in October.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +35.4 Points-Per-Game, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). THE SITUATION: Georgia (3-0) has had two weeks off to recover and prepare for this showdown after their 13-12 win at Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Alabama (3-0) comes off their bye week as well after a 42-10 win at Wisconsin as a 14-point favorite on September 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia struggled on the road against the Wildcats two weeks ago — but I think that speaks to their early season injuries and the challenge of playing on the road in the SEC. Remember that the most impressive victory either of these teams has registered this season was the Bulldogs’ 34-3 victory against Clemson who have since dominated their opponents. While Georgia is not at full strength, they are getting healthier — and the headline is their star defensive tackle Warren Brinson is expected to return to action after playing only three snaps against Clemson this season. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games with two or more weeks to prepare under head coach Kirby Smart. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Crimson Tide dominated Wisconsin on the road -- and they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that contest. But first-year head coach Kalen DeBour’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. I am not giving DeBour an immediate benefit of the doubt when it comes to continuing the legacy of Nick Saban with this program. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in Weeks Five through Nine. Alabama remains very talented — although DeBour had to lean on the transfer portal, so the issue of their new culture remains a question. This ain’t Saban’s team anymore. This Crimson Tide team has issues on the offensive line and at cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: This game is crucial for the Bulldogs after their 27-24 upset loss as a 5.5-point favorite to Saban’s Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game cost them the opportunity to compete in the College Football Playoff. The revenge angle is huge — and Smart’s teams at Georgia have covered the point spread in 31 of their 47 games against ranked opponents including covering the point spread in 25 of those 37 games when favored. Smart’s coaching staff and culture are proven in games like this — and while the Crimson Tide may want it, the Bulldogs need it. 10* CFB Georgia-Alabama ABC-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). THE SITUATION: Baylor (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-31 loss at Colorado in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (4-0) remained unbeaten after their 38-9 upset win at home against Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has been fortunate to remain unscathed this season — but this is the spot where they should be exposed by an angry Baylor team. BYU opened their season with an easy one against Southern Illinois from the FCS. They then played on the road against an SMU team that is already on their second quarterback and who were the beneficiaries of five TCU giveaways in their upset victory against them before disposing of one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far in a Wyoming team struggling to move on in the post-Craig Bohl era. And then last week, the Cougars survived getting outgained by a 367 to 241 margin in yardage to stun the Wildcats. Some fluky plays changed the tenor of that game. Trailing by a 6-3 score, BYU scooped up a Kansas State fumble to score a 30-yard defensive touchdown with 1:08 left in the half. They immediately were then given a short field by the Wildcats and scored another touchdown with 0:29 left to take a 17-6 lead. They then scored on a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take control of the game with a 24-6 lead. If that was not enough, the Cougars were gifted another 50 yards on eight Kansas State penalties. I am not letting a deceiving final score last week sway me from my preseason thoughts on this team. After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule going into last season. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12. Now they play their second traditional Power Five/Four program in the Bears who will challenge them on both lines of scrimmage. As it is, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing during those weeks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions — but those numbers look much better than his only five “big time” throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Now he faces his toughest defense this season with this Baylor team that is holding their opponents to just 283.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 16.8 Points-Per-Game. This Bears defense has significantly improved with head coach Dave Aranda taking over the play-calling duties. They rank 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Baylor was a prime candidate to rebound from their 3-9 campaign last season with 19 returning starters from that very young team. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road against the Buffaloes after they missed a late game-sealing field goal which created the opportunity for quarterback Shadeur Sanders to complete a 43-yard Hail Mary pass to force overtime on the final play in regulation. A botched fumble on the one-yard line in overtime led to them losing the game. If there was a silver lining, it was the play of junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson who completed 11 of 21 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown and 82 yards on the ground. The former Mississippi State transfer is a better fit to execute the quick passing game Baylor wants to deploy than previous starter Dequan Finn who may lack the requisite passing skills after transferring from Toledo. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points. And in their last 16 games at home as the favorite, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Western Kentucky (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 49-21 victory at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (3-0) continued their unbeaten season last week with their 41-17 upset victory at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky generated 631 yards of offense to overwhelm the Blue Raiders. Junior quarterback T.J. Finley got injured in that game — but that opens up space for redshirt sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp to run the offense after being the hero for the team in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl. Veltkamp completed 27 of 30 passes last week for 398 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in September. Toledo dominated what turned out to be a hapless Bulldogs team (mental note: lesson learned) last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. And in their last 6 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. This is a tough situational spot for the Rockets. Not only are they playing their second straight game on the road against a non-conference, but they have their revenge opportunity next week against Miami (OH) who beat them in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game last season. Quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 285 yards last week — but he has yet to register a pass that qualifies as a “Big Time Throw” by Pro Football Focus this season. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road —  and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: In their 21 games under head coach Tyson Helton as a single-digit favorite, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 16 of those contests by an average of +5.4 points versus the spread. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (2-1) rebounded from their 21-point loss at Washington State two weeks ago with a 66-21 throttling of North Texas as an 11-point home favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (3-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 31-28 upset win at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech dominated the Mean Green last week by generating 586 yards of offense and outgaining them by +233 net yards. One of the touchdowns they allowed was from a 44-yard interception by the North Texas defense. That pick-six came from backup quarterback Cameran Brown. Junior quarterback Behren Morton is a two-year starter leading this offense who has already thrown for 973 yards in three games with 10 touchdown passes. He completed 15 of 19 passes last week for 273 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The final score in the loss on the road to the Cougars two weeks ago was a bit deceptive since they won the yardage battle by +75 net yards. A -3 net turnover margin played a big role in that setback as well as fourth down proficiency. Texas Tech failed to convert in four of their five fourth down attempts in that game while Washington State was successful on two of their three fourth down attempts to help swing the game in their favor. The Red Raiders have been banged up this season. Running back Tahj Brooks did not suit up against the Cougars — and they lost four starters to injury during that game including the entire left side of the offensive line. Brooks returned last week to rush for 109 yards with a touchdown. While not back to 100%, Texas Tech is getting back injured players on both sides of the ball. Arizona State survived the Bobcats last week despite getting outgained by -53 net yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have a +6 net turnover margin so far this season. The Sun Devils have scored three defensive touchdowns this year — and they have converted on five of their six fourth down attempts. Now Arizona State stays on the road for the second straight week — and they may be due for an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign last year, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has been their starting quarterback this season. While he offers a dual threat with his legs, he ranks 107th in the nation in Expected Points Added per dropback. Cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. I expected the Sun Devils to be much better — albeit that would not necessarily mean translate into more victories or point spread covers. About everything has gone right for this team to win and cover the point spread in their first three games, but their formula for success is unsustainable. Arizona State has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech is 22-11-1 ATS in their 34 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Arizona State-Texas Tech FS1-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 20-12 upset victory at Florida State as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. Navy (2-0) returns to the field after beating Temple by a 38-11 score two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers dominated time of possession last week while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin in pulling off the signature victory against the Seminoles. Florida State is reeling amidst a start to the season that has exposed the inattention to recruiting under head coach Mike Norvell. In hindsight, the talent level in Tallahassee is not nearly the same as it was last season after losing ten players in the NFL including six in the first three rounds. The Seminoles have become overly dependent on the transfer portal which is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Norvell seems to have missed at quarterback after bringing in former Clemson and then Oregon State’s D.J. Uigalelei. The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis was already a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs — and now those playoff expectations fall firmly on their shoulders. Notre Dame felt similar pressure after their beating Texas A&M in their opening game — and they got upset the next week despite being nearly a four-touchdown favorite. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era. This is a very challenging spot for the Tigers staying on the road for a second week on the road against a team running a gimmicky new offense. It is highly doubtful that Silverfield and his coaching staff had anything other than Florida State on their minds last week. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on field turf. So far, so good for Navy after following up their victory against Bucknell with a dominant victory against the Owls in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at home. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a win by 17 or more points. The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest-hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program which was their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. With an extra week to prepare for this game, expect many new schemes, formations, and plays from Cronic in what is this team’s biggest game of the season so far this year. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again. Often the Midshipmen go only as far as their quarterback — and they may have found a good one in junior Blake Horvath who only played in one game last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Horvath took control of the starting job in the spring and held off sophomore Braxton Woodson in the fall. He ran for 112 yards with three touchdowns last week on 15 carries. But the exciting dynamic for this program is his passing threat as he completed 5 of 9 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown pass as well. Against Bucknell in their opening game, Horvath completed 7 of 12 passes for 168 yards with another two touchdown passes.

FINAL TAKE: Navy has lost five straight games to the Tigers — so snapping that losing streak would go a long way to re-establish this program. But they will come into this game with confidence after only losing 28-24 at Memphis as an 11.5-point underdog last September 14th. The Midshipmen were able to run the ball for 299 yards on 50 carries for a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings against the Tigers. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Virginia Cavaliers plus (or minus) the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Virginia (2-0) looks to build off their 31-30 win at Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They return home looking to avenge their 42-14 loss at Maryland last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Maryland (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-24 upset loss at home to Michigan State as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. Take Virginia plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is now on a 66 of 110 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING the Washington State-Washington Under in the Apple Cup in college football just now! Now Frank has tonight’s Toledo-Mississippi State ATS winner on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) comes off a 72-14 victory at home against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played at the Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City since Kansas is building a new football stadium this year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Lance Leipold will have his team ready to play in this rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last December. Leipold’s teams going back to his previous tenure at Buffalo have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games after an upset loss on the road. His Kansas teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest.  Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against this UNLV team in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG. Daniels can be loose with the football — he threw three interceptions last week with the Fighting Illini returning one for a touchdown in what ended up being the difference in the game. The Jayhawks did hold Illinois to just 271 yards while outgaining them by +56 net yards. Tonight’s game presents a good opportunity for Daniels to learn from those mistakes and get on the same page with first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. Kansas ranks 20th in Success Rate on offense so far this season — and they are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. After ranking 11th in Explosiveness last season, they already have eight explosive plays this year. UNLV opened their season with a 27-7 upset win at Houston before their glorified scrimmage against an FCS school last week. My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Sluka has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 46.7% of his passes. Last week’s game should have been an opportunity for him to build some confidence in the passing game — but he only completed 8 of 17 passes against the Utah Tech defense. Let’s remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG. The defense got exposed when facing good offenses. Michigan scored 31 points against them while generating 8.1 Yards-Per-Play. Fresno State scored 31 points and averaged 5.1 YPP. San Jose State averaged 7.3 YPP en route to their 37 points. Boise State’s 44 points came from them generating 8.0 YPP. And in the bowl game, the Jayhawks gained 591 total yards by averaging 10.2 YPP while generating 449 yards in the air with six touchdown passes.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has revenge on their minds but it may be Borland and the Kansas defensive coaches who will benefit more from recently facing Marion’s Go-Go approach on offense. The Rebels only rushed for 95 yards in that game from a 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry average — so the onus may be on Sluka to win this game with his arm. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UNLV-Kansas ESPN Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) won their opening game of the season in a 31-13 win against UC-Davis as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) began their season with a 73-3 victory against Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal looked sluggish last week by only gaining 281 yards of offense against the Aggies — but they were holding some things back to save for this game. First-team All-Pac 12 running back Jaydn Ott only ran the ball 14 times for 49 yards — but he did score two touchdowns. The Golden Bears went into halftime with just a 14-13 lead — but they controlled the second half by outscoring UC-Davis by a 17-0 margin to pull away for the comfortable victory. They held the Aggies to just 304 total yards of offense — and they gave up only one offensive touchdown with UC-Davis scoring on a six-yard fumble recovery. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from the team that finished 6-7 after a 34-14 loss to Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears did win their final three games of the regular season to become bowl-eligible. This may be Wilcox’s best team at Cal since his 2019 team that finished 8-5. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience who entered the year with 117 combined starts. While Wilcox brought in former North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal, it was sophomore Fernando Mendoza under center again after starting eight games last season. He was efficient last week by completing 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The defense has eight starters back. Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with equal rest with their opponent. The Golden Bears have been very reliable in spots like this having covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games on the road as an underdog under Wilcox. They have also won four of their last seven games on the road against teams outside their conference — and they have covered the point spread in all 7 of those games. Auburn’s offense was only on the field for 13:26 minutes last week but still racked up 728 yards of offense in their glorified scrimmage against Alabama A&M. Hosting cupcakes before taking on SEC opponents has been the standard operating procedure for the Tigers — this game is the first time they are playing at home against a non-conference Power Five/Power Four program scene 2016. They have 17 starters back from the group that finished 6-7 last season after getting upset by Maryland in the Music City Bowl by a 31-13 score as a 4-point favorite. The defense replaced five players who got drafted into the NFL. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by at least a touchdown up to -37 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Berkeley last season with the Tigers pulling out a 14-10 victory as a 6-point road favorite — so Cal will have revenge on their mind while confident they can compete after outgaining the Tigers by 43 net yards on the strength of their defense that gave up only 230 yards of offense. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against opponents outside the SEC. 10* CFB California-Auburn ESPN2 Special with the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 24-21 upset loss against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland last Saturday. Boston College (0-0) makes their season debut tonight returning 17 starters from the group that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 win against SMU in the Fenway Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Yellow Jackets last week after concluding they were undervalued in that game. I also worried about Florida State perhaps looking past that team that has been rebuilding for years in the post-Paul Johnson era. The Seminoles may think they have become a top-five program — and they treated that game like it would be easy for them. My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game. Fixing the defense is going to be a long-term project for O’Brien and defensive coordinator Tim Lewis. Florida State should get their ground game tonight against that suspect run defense — and that should set up Uigalelei to have a better game with the running game established. He was solid if unspectacular last week by completing 19 of 27 passes without an interception.

FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games against the Seminoles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State is the vastly superior team in terms of talent — and they will take their frustrations out on an Eagles team making their season debut with a new coaching staff. 10* CFB Boston College-Florida State ESPN Special with the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) returns 14 starters from a team that finished 9-4 last season culminating in a 16-15 victory against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl. Arizona State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS:   WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils suffered through their second straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. The offense will be led by Sam Leavitt who transferred in from Michigan State after Jaden Rashada left the program for Georgia in the spring. The redshirt freshman has potential but did not get much playing time for the Spartans last season. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference FBS opponents. They are also 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home against FBS foes. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have gone 4-4 in their last eight games on the road against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 8 games. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).

FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (0-0) returns 13 starters from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl by a 30-17 score. Florida State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl by a 63-3 score. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: My biggest question with Florida State in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point — and the reports suggested he was inconsistent in spring practice. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. This is a challenging trip to Europe — and the team will be without offensive coordinator Alex Atkins who is suspended for the first three games this season for recruiting violations. Now they face an improving Georgia Tech team that upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia on the road last season. Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office.

FINAL TAKE: The weather forecasts in Dublin call for wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour — and that element adds volatility to the mix to this Seminoles team that has national championship aspirations. I’m not sure Florida State is at the level from season-to-season — and the Yellow Jackets probably have the better quarterback in this one. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games against ranked ACC opponents under Key’s leadership — and they pulled off the upset in all four contests. 10* CFB Florida State-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281) and in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is riding high after their triumph in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating two or more conference rivals in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 350 or more yards in their last contest. Longhorns’ safety Derek Williams, Jr. will miss the first half of this game after getting suspended during the Big 12 Championship Game for targeting — and that will leave a suspect Texas secondary even more vulnerable. The Longhorns rank 86th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. The Huskies generate 470.4 total Yards-Per-Game with 344 of those yards coming in the air. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against opponents generating 450 or more YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row against Pac-12 opponents. And while the Huskies have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than once in four or more games in a row. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies will have the better quarterback on the field in Michael Penix, Jr. who outdueled Bo Nix twice in their two showdowns with Oregon. The Huskies rank 6th in Passing Success Rate — and they rank 7th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate to keep defenses honest. Running back Dillon Johnson averages more than 3.0 Yards after contact. The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country — and this was a unit that protected Penix for just five pressures in his 55 dropbacks in the Alamo Bowl last season against Texas which the Huskies won by a 27-20 score. Washington leads the nation with a pressure-to-sack ratio of only 3.2%. Penix will have plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable Longhorns pass defense. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Texas-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 26-0 loss to Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Tennessee (8-4) ended their two-game losing streak in a 48-24 victory against Vanderbilt as a 27-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa is many bettor’s Kryptonite because of their anemic offense — and they are an even uglier underdog coming off a shutout loss to Michigan. But the Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the nation — and they are balanced as they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They held their opponents to only 274.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 13.2 Points-Per-Game. Iowa also has an elite special teams unit. The key to playing against a Kirk Ferentz-coached team is to not play aggressively since they feast on mistakes — but I am not sure that is in Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s DNA, especially in a bowl game with little at stake. Given that Heupel is turning to his blue-chip freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game only compounds this potential problem for the Volunteers. Look for much of Iowa’s scoring coming from exploiting mistakes Tennessee makes in this game. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss including four of these last five circumstances. They have not allowed more than 264 yards in their last two games after the Wolverines only managed to gain 213 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two or more games in a row. Admittedly, Iowa has not scored more than 15 points in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than 17 points in three or more games in a row. And while they have only averaged 234.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games for failing to average more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. The Hawkeyes' only significant player not playing in this game is wide receiver Diante Vines who entered the transfer portal. The Iowa offensive line is healthy again after the month off. Tennessee has had some defections that will be impactful. Quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game which is why Iamaleava is getting his shot. The Volunteers will also be without their top two running backs after Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opted out of this game. Additionally, the Tennessee defense has taken some hits with defensive end Tyler Baron, safety Wesley Walker, and cornerback  Doneiko Slaughter heading the long list of players that entered the transfer portal. The Volunteers surrendered 376.6 YPG and 27.8 PPG in their five games away from home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. And while they outgained the Commodores by +311 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ferentz has won ten bowl games in his long tenure at Iowa — and the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-3) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 45-21 victory at Temple as a 13-point favorite on November 24th. Iowa State (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 42-35 upset win at Kansas State as a 10-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Tigers home field at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis hosts this game — and while I do not expect a rowdy afternoon crowd for this game, I find much of the home-field advantage in football coming from familiarity and lack of travel which the Tigers will enjoy for this contest. The Tigers won four of their five home games this season to extend their home winning streak since 2017 to 29-5 straight-up — and they have a 55-11 record at home in the last ten seasons. Furthermore, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers have played four straight Overs after their final regular season game with the Owls flew Over the 64-point Total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is dealing with some missing players including two starters on the offensive line who are in the transfer portal. But junior quarterback Seth Henigan is playing after passing for 3519 yards with 28 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He has his two favorite targets for this game in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee who combined for 1806 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson is also playing in this game after rushing for 104 yards with 14 touchdowns. Memphis ranked tenth in the nation in Points-Per-Play on offense while generating 453.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 39.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones struggle against potent offensive teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who generate 450 or more YPG. To make matters worse, they will be without their star cornerback T.J. Tampa who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spreading in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State Matt Campbell usually gets the most out of his roster - but the overall athleticism on the roster remains a question that was only made worse by the gambling scandal that impacted the team early in the season. It is telling that the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Memphis-Iowa State ESPN Special with the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 69-45 victory as a 10-point favorite against TCU on November 24th. Arizona (9-3) has won six games in a row with their 59-23 victory at Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has two new faces playing big roles with their offense since the victory against the Horned Frogs. Offensive coordinator Jeff Libby left the program to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State — so head coach Brent Venables tapped offensive analyst Seth Littrell as the new play-caller and offensive coordinator. Venables hired Littrell after he was let go as the North Texas head coach. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator at Arizona, Indiana, and then North Carolina which got him the head coaching gig at North Texas. He runs an Air Raid offense as well — so there should be no drop-off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal and will play at Oregon next season — so that opens the door for the Sooners to begin the Jackson Arnold era. The five-star freshman is considered a potential future first-round draft pick in the NFL. He completed 18 of 24 passes this season for 202 yards with an 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is a threat with his legs as well with 78 rushing yards in his limited time on the field — and he thrives in operating within inside zone read rushing schemes. The Wildcats are vulnerable in this area — they allowed an Opponent Success Rate of 41% against inside zone rushing plays. If this was an early September game, Arnold would be given much respect — and after a few weeks of practice with the first team for bowl prep after being with the team all year, he should be ready to roll. Oklahoma has a long transfer and opt-out list — but the biggest losses are three starters on the offensive line. Arnold still has great weapons at his disposal in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq. The defense got some great news when junior linebacker Danny Stutsman and junior safety Billy Bowman both announced they were returning for their senior seasons — and both are playing in this game. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in a victory as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their surprising regular season in the Pac-12 where they upset Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 35 or more points in a victory over a Pac-12 rival. Arizona covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Before beating the Sun Devils to conclude their regular season, they upset Utah by a 42-18 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last two contests. The offense improved when head coach Jedd Fisch turned to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his starting quarterback — but the underlying metrics do raise some concerns. He had seven “Big Time” throws but eight turnover-worthy plays despite only five interceptions. That negative ratio is worrisome — especially with the Sooners given a month of preparation time. Fifita has a low adjusted completion percentage of 34% on his 38 throws of 20 or more air yards. To compound matters, Arizona star left tackle Jordan Morgan opted out for this game leaving the blind side duties to sophomore Joseph Borjon who only was involved in 175 plays this season.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Rebels have allowed 477.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. Kansas held the Bearcats to just 111 passing yards in their final regular season game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing no more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Jayhawks generated 562 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game. The program has since lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. The offense also suffered a blow with starting left tackle Dominick Puni opting out for this game leaving them having to start a freshman to protect quarterback Jason Bean’s blind side. The Jayhawks rushed for 312 yards against Cincinnati — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after rushing for 300 or more yards in their last game. And while they rushed for 234 yards in their previous game against Kansas State, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after rushing for 225 or more yards in two straight games. The Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. 8* CFB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Rice (6-6) won their final two games of the season after a 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 52-44 upset win against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an important game for Rice after they won their final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. Winning this game would secure the Owls their first winning season in their six seasons under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They reached a bowl game last year despite a 5-7 record but lost 38-24 to Southern Mississippi in what was their first bowl game in eight seasons. Bloomgren is recruiting well — and this game offers an opportunity to showcase his program to a national audience and potential recruits. It is telling that he has no players opting out or entering the transfer portal. Sixth-year senior quarter J.T. Daniels did announce his retirement from college football due to medical reasons — but the offense is in good hands in redshirt freshman  A.J. Padgett who has 225 snaps under his belt after starting the last few games. Padgett completed 24 of 37 passes for 255 yards with three touchdowns and one interception against FAU. Padgett started in the Owls’ bowl game last year — and this start gives him a head start to claim the starting QB job next season. Rice usually builds off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while they outgained FAU by +194 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more Yards-Per-Game. They did not force a turnover in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last contest. Florida Atlantic did average 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against them — but Rice has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. Texas State will be playing in their first-ever bowl game in what has been a triumphant season under first-year head coach G.J. Kinne. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent. Texas State generated 479 total yards against the Jaguars in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats have a dynamic offense — but they are vulnerable against good passing teams as they rank 105th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Rice ranks 28th in Pass Success Rate. The Owls should be able to slow down the Texas State passing attack as well — they rank 35th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf which is the surface at Gerald Ford Stadium. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ESPN Special with the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-23 loss to Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was inconsistent this season — they upset Miami (FL) and North Carolina while playing Georgia close but got blown out by Clemson and Ole Miss while losing by double-digits to Bowling Green. This is an important game in the first full season under head coach Brent Key — so I look for a strong effort tonight. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their 4-4 record after Key took over as the interim head coach last season was a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? Key seems to have this program moving in the right direction. With former Texas A&M transfer Hunter King at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets finally found a consistent offensive identity in the aftermath of moving away from the Paul Johnson triple option era of the last decade that led to hiring Geoff Collins from Temple to attempt to oversee the transition to a pro-style offense. Georgia Tech generated 432.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 31.2 Points-Per-Game. King tossed 26 touchdown passes. The primary strength of the offense comes from their rushing attack which ranks 22nd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Offensive Line Yards. They have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last six contests. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Central Florida gained 476 total yards in their win against the Cougars — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights enjoy a good balanced offense — but the Yellow Jackets should have success running the ball against them. Central Florida ranks 124th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 112th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They allowed four Big 12 foes to rush for at least 200 yards against them including Kansas to rolled up 399 rushing yards against them. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The transfer portal and opt-out situation for this game are relatively minor and pretty balanced. UCF will miss four players who entered the transfer portal with the biggest loss being starting cornerback Corey Thornton. Georgia Tech will be without defensive end Kyle Kennard and cornerback Kenan Johnson who are in the transfer portal. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral field as an underdog — and the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite laying up to seven points. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won five games in a row after their 23-14 upset victory against Toledo as a 6.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Appalachian State (8-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 49-23 loss at Troy as a 5.5-point underdog in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) will be using sophomore Henry Hesson at quarterback this afternoon given Aveon Smith’s decision to enter the transfer portal. Smith had been the team’s starting quarterback since Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. Frankly, while Smith was productive with his legs, he was not offering the RedHawks much offense in the passing game. Miami (OH) was always going to rely on the other two phases of the game. They are allowing only 16.2 Points-Per-Game this season while giving up just 326.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The RedHawks also have an outstanding special teams unit under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Total was set in the 43.5 range against the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game — and they held Toledo to only 97 rushing yards on 29 carries. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Appalachian State may have trouble getting up for this game after getting blown out in their championship game. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. And while Appalachian State had covered the point spread in four straight contests before the loss to the Trojans, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers are down four players who entered the transfer portal since that game with the biggest loss being their top running back Nate Noel who gained 834 rushing yards this season. Appalachian State is not a good defensive team as they allow their opponents to generate 389.9 total YPG which results in 28.4 PPG after Troy generated 463 yards against them — and they allow 30.9 PPG when playing on the road. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favorite — and Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5-10 points. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their bowl games under Martin’s tenure. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). THE SITUATION: Navy (5-6) looks to bounce back from their 59-14 loss at SMU as an 18.5-point underdog on November 25th. Army (5-6) comes off a 28-21 upset victory as a 1-point underdog against Coastal Carolina on November 18th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy got outgained by -224 net yards against the Mustangs two weeks ago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in their last game. The Midshipmen only managed to generate 3.61 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after failing to generate more than 3.75 YPP in their last contest. And while SMU averaged 7.57 YPP in that game, Navy has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread 8 of their last 9 games after failing to average at least 3.25 YPP in their last game while allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP. Navy has a good run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Midshipmen have not allowed more than 118 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. In a game between two teams that average 46 and 48 rushing attempts per game respectively, the Midshipmen have the edge in run defense. Army ranks 93rd in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 116th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Army allowed the Chanticleers to generate 7.68 YPP in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games when playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points. Navy has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.