Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Robbie Ray. Arizona (37-26) has won four of their last five games with their 3-2 victory over the Brewers yesterday. The Diamondbacks have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 23-9-2 in Arizona’s last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Over is a decisive 50-22-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 75 games at home — and that includes playing twenty of their last twenty-seven home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5-10 range. They send out Ray who is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The right-hander has allowed only one earned run in his last 30 1/3 innings of work — but the deeper sabermetrics call for regression. Both Ray’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.44 respectively moving forward. Ray has also not been as effective at home where he has a 5.67 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his microscopic 0.64 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP and .134 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total with Ray on there mound. That bodes for trouble when facing this Brewers team that has played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Jason Vargas. Cleveland (28-24) has won four of their last five games with their 8-0 victory over the A’s yesterday. The Under is then 26-10-2 in the Indians’ lat 38 games after a victory. The Under is also 17-6-3 in Cleveland’s last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record, the Under is 7-2-1. They send out Tomlin who is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics project better times for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward. Tomlin has been more effective on the road where he owns a strong 1.13 WHIP as compared to his 1.44 WHIP along with a 6.19 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .321 when pitching at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Tomlin had a 4.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under is 6-1-2 in the Indians’ last 9 games on the road. He should fare well against this Royals’ team that has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Tomlin also loves to pitch against Kansas City — he is 10-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 23 career appearances which includes 19 starts against the Royals. |
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05-26-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Chad Kuhl. Pittsburgh (22-26) has seen their bats awaken over the last two games as they have scored 21 runs over that span while belting six home runs in their four-game series against the Braves. The Pirates have won two straight games with their 9-4 win in Atlanta last night. Pittsburgh has then seen the Over go 9-4-2 in their last 15 games after a victory. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, the Over is 6-2-1. They send out Kuhl who is 1-4 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been hit hard in his five starts home this year where he has been saddled with an 8.20 ERA, 2.09 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average as compared to his solid 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are entirely consistent with last season where Kuhl had a 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average at home but a strong 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Pirates have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Kuhl on the mound. |
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05-24-17 | Marlins v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (923) and the Oakland A’s (924) listing both starting pitchers Edison Volquez and Sonny Gray. Miami (16-28) opened this series with a 10-8 victory over the A’s last night. The Marlins have then seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 18-7-2 in Miami’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 15 road games against American League opponents, the Marlins have played 12 of these games Over the Total. They send out Volquez who is 0–6 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road in five starts where he has a 5.26 ERA and a rough opponent’s batting average of .303 as compared to his 4.20 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home this season. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last year where Volquez had an uninspiring 5.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .285 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers even worse on the road to a 5.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average. That does not bode well when facing this Oakland team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the A’s have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 109 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Matthew Boyd. Detroit (21-20) closes out this series tonight after their 9-3 win over the Rangers in the second game of this series. The Tigers have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory. Detroit has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road, the Under is 18-5-3. They send out Boyd who is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP this season. The left-hander is looking to redeem himself from a bad outing where he allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work against the Orioles on Tuesday. Boyd has been respectable at home where he has a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 — it is on the road where he has really struggled with a 1.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .329. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Boyd pitching with four days of rest. He should pitch better tonight against this Rangers team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (919) and the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Julio Teheran. Atlanta (16-21) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six — with their 8-4 win versus the Blue Jays in the first game in Atlanta of this two-game home-and-home series with Toronto. The Braves have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 20-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 28 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in Interleague play, the Braves have played 4 of these games Over the Total. The team received bad news this afternoon with the announcement that Freddie Freeman would miss 8-12 weeks after being beaned in the wrist last night in this heated series. But this team will need to score runs tonight with Julio Teheran taking the hill after surrendering six home runs, 22 hits and seven bases-on-balls in his last three starts in Atlanta. For the season, the right-hander is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP this year — but he sees those numbers explode at home with an 8.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in four starts. The Braves have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill. That is not a good sign against this Toronto team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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05-06-17 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Odrisamer Despaigne and Robert Gsellman. New York (13-15) has won five of their last seven games with their 8-7 win last night in the opening game of this series. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 32 games after allowing at least five runs, the Over is 21-8-3. Additionally, the Over is 16-5-2 in New York’s last 23 games at home — and they have played thirteen of their last sixteen games Over the Total at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over is 19-4-3 in the Mets’ last 27 games against fellow NL East opponents. They send out Gsellman who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home so far as he owns a 1.76 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mets have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Gsellman on the mound. Miami has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have also seen the Over go 17-5-4 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (959) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke. Colorado (15-9) won the opening game of this series last night by a 3-1 score. The Rockies have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Anderson who is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in five starts this season. Zero of these five starts qualified as Qualified Starts for Anderson as his lack of an effective breaking pitch has significantly reduced his reliability. Last season, the left-hander had a 5-6 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP — but those numbers rose to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Anderson pitching with four days rest as he does tonight. That is not a good sign when facing this Diamondbacks team that has seen the Over 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. |
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04-29-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (979) and the Boston Red Sox (980) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Steven Wright. Chicago (12-10) looks to bounce-back from a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox last night. The Cubs have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubbies have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Lackey who is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. There were signs last season that the 38-year old was about to experience some series regression in his effectiveness. His 34.4% hard contact rate last season was the worst of his career. Lackey was not as effective on the road last year where he had a 4.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. This season, Lackey has a rough 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP when on the road. Chicago has played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Lackey on the hill. |
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04-25-17 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (971) and the Detroit Tigers (972) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Seattle (8-12) enters this series coming off an 11-1 win at Oakland on Sunday which was a nice win for Mariners’ bettors who were getting +115 on the money line. The Mariners have then played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after an upset win over a divisional rival. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP so far this season. The aging right-hander has seen his effectiveness drop as he has been losing velocity. His 3.8 walk rate per 9 innings was the worst of his career. The King was not as effective on the road last year where he was saddled with a 1.49 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.19 WHIP and .228 opponent’s batting average when at home. This season, Hernandez has a 4.09 ERA along with a dangerous .333 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mariners have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle has also seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in Detroit with Hernandez on the mound. That spells trouble when facing this Tigers’ team that has seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (963) and the New York Mets (964) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler. Washington (12-5) has won six straight games after their 3-1 win over the Mets yesterday. The Nationals have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against an opponent that failed to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in Washington’s last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Nationals have played 10 of these games Over the Total. They send out Scherzer who is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP this season. The right-hander was very tough at home last year where he had a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. However, those numbers rose to a 3.28 ERA along with 1.00 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Scherzer facing a team with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over us 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (901) and the Chicago Cubs (902) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Kyle Hendricks. Chicago (111-62) evened this series at a game apiece with their 5-1 win over the Indians on Wednesday. The Cubs have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an off day. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games at home against teams with a winning record. They turn to Hendricks who is 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP this season. BEST ARGUMENT: Hendricks is nearly unhittable when pitching at home where he owns a 1.32 ERA along with an 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .201. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games at home with Hendricks on the hill. He should fare well against this Indians team quite used to low-scoring contests. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs. The Indians have played 6 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (95-74) evened this series at a game apiece on Sunday with their 1-0 victory. The Dodgers have then played 5 straight games Over the Total when scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games at home. They send out Hill who is 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 2.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and and an opponent’s batting average of .215 as compared to his 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 when on the road. Hill has not completed 5 full innings of work in either of his postseason starts this year — and he has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP this season. Those are appealing numbers — and the Over is 7-3-1 in the Cubs’ last 11 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (951) and the Toronto Blue Jays (952) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Cleveland (99-67) has seized a 2-0 lead in this series after their 2-0 win in the second game of this series. The Indians’ strong bullpen and outstanding defensive play have held the Blue Jays to just one run — but they have scored only four times in these first two games themselves. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total following a win. The Indians have also seen the Under go 16-6-2 in their last 24 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They send out Bauer who is 12-8 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been a bit better on the road where he has a 3.61 ERA — and that helps explain why the Under is 19-3-4 in the Indians’ last 26 games on the road with Bauer on the hill. He should pitch well against this Blue Jays team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (931) and the Toronto Blue Jays (932) listing both starting pitchers Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman. Toronto (89-73) won their last game of the season in Boston by a 2-1 score on Sunday in preparation of this one-game Wild Card Playoff. The Blue Jays have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing no more than one run against a Divisional rival. Toronto has also seen the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after an off-day. And in their last 7 games at home, the Blue Jays have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They send out Stroman who is 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Both his SIERA* and xFIP* expect more from Stroman with their projections of an ERA of 3.62 and 3.41 moving forward respectively. Stroman made some adjustments after a rough June with very good results as he posted a 3.28 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings of work. * SIERA and xFIP: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average is a metric developed by Baseball Prospectus. They define SIERA as an estimate ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck. SIERA accounts for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners. xFIP: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching was developed by The Hardball Times to measure what a pitcher's ERA should like assuming that defensive performance on balls in play was the league average; it differs from the FIP metric in that actual home runs allowed is replaced by expected home runs allowed given a pitcher's fly ball rate. |
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09-28-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Toronto Blue Jays (920) listing both starting pitchers Chris Tillman and Francisco Liriano. Toronto (87-70) has won four of their last five games with their 5-1 win over the Orioles last night. The Blue Jays have then played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Toronto has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Jays have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total. They send out Liriano who is 8-13 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better at home where he has a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .232 with his split time between Pittsburgh and Toronto. Liriano has been good in a Blue Jays’ uniform where he has a 3.35 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances with the club. He also comes off his best start with the team where he allowed no earned runs in 6 innings of work against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total with Liriano making the start. |