Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (963) and the New York Mets (964) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler. Washington (12-5) has won six straight games after their 3-1 win over the Mets yesterday. The Nationals have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against an opponent that failed to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in Washington’s last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Nationals have played 10 of these games Over the Total. They send out Scherzer who is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP this season. The right-hander was very tough at home last year where he had a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. However, those numbers rose to a 3.28 ERA along with 1.00 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Scherzer facing a team with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over us 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (901) and the Chicago Cubs (902) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Kyle Hendricks. Chicago (111-62) evened this series at a game apiece with their 5-1 win over the Indians on Wednesday. The Cubs have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an off day. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games at home against teams with a winning record. They turn to Hendricks who is 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP this season. BEST ARGUMENT: Hendricks is nearly unhittable when pitching at home where he owns a 1.32 ERA along with an 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .201. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games at home with Hendricks on the hill. He should fare well against this Indians team quite used to low-scoring contests. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs. The Indians have played 6 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (95-74) evened this series at a game apiece on Sunday with their 1-0 victory. The Dodgers have then played 5 straight games Over the Total when scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games at home. They send out Hill who is 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 2.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and and an opponent’s batting average of .215 as compared to his 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 when on the road. Hill has not completed 5 full innings of work in either of his postseason starts this year — and he has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP this season. Those are appealing numbers — and the Over is 7-3-1 in the Cubs’ last 11 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (951) and the Toronto Blue Jays (952) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Cleveland (99-67) has seized a 2-0 lead in this series after their 2-0 win in the second game of this series. The Indians’ strong bullpen and outstanding defensive play have held the Blue Jays to just one run — but they have scored only four times in these first two games themselves. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total following a win. The Indians have also seen the Under go 16-6-2 in their last 24 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They send out Bauer who is 12-8 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been a bit better on the road where he has a 3.61 ERA — and that helps explain why the Under is 19-3-4 in the Indians’ last 26 games on the road with Bauer on the hill. He should pitch well against this Blue Jays team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (931) and the Toronto Blue Jays (932) listing both starting pitchers Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman. Toronto (89-73) won their last game of the season in Boston by a 2-1 score on Sunday in preparation of this one-game Wild Card Playoff. The Blue Jays have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing no more than one run against a Divisional rival. Toronto has also seen the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after an off-day. And in their last 7 games at home, the Blue Jays have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They send out Stroman who is 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Both his SIERA* and xFIP* expect more from Stroman with their projections of an ERA of 3.62 and 3.41 moving forward respectively. Stroman made some adjustments after a rough June with very good results as he posted a 3.28 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings of work. * SIERA and xFIP: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average is a metric developed by Baseball Prospectus. They define SIERA as an estimate ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck. SIERA accounts for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners. xFIP: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching was developed by The Hardball Times to measure what a pitcher's ERA should like assuming that defensive performance on balls in play was the league average; it differs from the FIP metric in that actual home runs allowed is replaced by expected home runs allowed given a pitcher's fly ball rate. |
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09-28-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Toronto Blue Jays (920) listing both starting pitchers Chris Tillman and Francisco Liriano. Toronto (87-70) has won four of their last five games with their 5-1 win over the Orioles last night. The Blue Jays have then played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Toronto has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Jays have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total. They send out Liriano who is 8-13 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better at home where he has a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .232 with his split time between Pittsburgh and Toronto. Liriano has been good in a Blue Jays’ uniform where he has a 3.35 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances with the club. He also comes off his best start with the team where he allowed no earned runs in 6 innings of work against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total with Liriano making the start. |