TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Broncos +2½ -112

Our Edge: We are exploiting a Mahomes halo effect.

The market is pricing Kansas City as the pre-injury version of this team, while last season's tape and this week's offensive line report say otherwise.

Statistical Edges:

• Pass Rush Production: Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks last season, tops in the league, and it draws an undrafted rookie at left tackle Monday.

With Chiefs first-rounder Josh Simmons out with a back injury, UDFA Kahlil Benson makes his NFL debut protecting Patrick Mahomes' blind side against Nik Bonitto's unit.

• Quarterback Mobility: Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15 last season and will wear a protective brace.

His escape ability is his historical answer to pressure, and it is compromised on opening night.

• Prior-Season Form Gap: Denver went 6-2 across its final eight listed games last season, averaging 23 points and allowing 19.88.

Kansas City went 1-7 over its last eight, scoring 15 per game.

• Head-to-Head: Denver has taken three of the last four meetings, including a 20-13 win at Arrowhead on December 25 last year.

Psychological Edges: Neither team has played a snap in 2026, so this line is built entirely on projection, and that projection is anchored to Mahomes' name rather than his current condition.

That is a textbook halo effect: the ease of recalling the MVP version crowds out a braced knee operating behind a debutant tackle against the league's best pass rush.

My framework updates from last season's baseline, where Kansas City closed as a 15-point-per-game offense and Denver won in this exact building.

Getting 2.5 with the more complete roster is the value side.

EDGE ON: BRONCOS +2.5 (-112)

I like the Broncos

Packers/Vikings: BENNETT EDGE ON under 46½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a debut-driven mispricing by taking the under in an indoor divisional opener where both offenses' verifiable inputs point toward a grinder, not a shootout.

Statistical Edges:
• Points Allowed: Minnesota surrendered just 15.12 points per game across its final eight games last season, including a 16-3 shutdown of this same Green Bay offense in this building on January 4.
• Scoring Output: Green Bay averaged 21.75 points per game over its own eight-game closing stretch last season, and that was with Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs is now on the Commissioner's Exempt List, leaving MarShawn Lloyd (one career game played) and Chris Brooks to carry the ground game.
• Quarterback Readiness: Vikings starter Kyler Murray attempted three passes all preseason, completing two for 10 yards in the opener before sitting the rest.

First-game timing in a new offense rarely produces peak efficiency.
• Offensive Line Health: Packers left guard Aaron Banks (knee tendinitis) is questionable and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele logged three limited practices this week, compromising Jordan Love's protection against Brian Flores' pressure looks.

Psychological Edges: Neither team has played a game this season, so this number is built entirely on projection, and the projection is anchored to a halo effect around Murray and Justin Jefferson sharing a dome.

My framework discounts star-name wattage against the base rate.

The Vikings' defense held four of their final five 2025 opponents to 13 or fewer points, and Green Bay scored 3 in this stadium nine months ago.

The market is paying 46.5 for a story that has not thrown a competitive pass yet.

We are taking the Bayesian baseline instead.

EDGE ON: Under 46.5 (-110)

I like the Under

Falcons/Steelers: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 41

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to Aaron Rodgers' name value rather than the functional state of either offense, in a Week 1 spot where both teams have played zero games this season.

Statistical Edges:
• Quarterback Availability: Atlanta hands the offense to third-stringer Cooper Rush, who is managing back spasms, with Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both ruled out and tackle Cameron Williams on IR.

That is a floor-level passing attack behind a reshuffled line.
• Offensive Continuity: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers took zero preseason snaps, and DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. missed the entire preseason.

Rodgers hit 65.7 percent for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, but this trio has no live reps together.
• Backfield Usage: Both scripts lean ground-heavy.

Pittsburgh pairs Rico Dowdle, over 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons, with Jaylen Warren and his career-high 251 touches last season.

Atlanta adds short-yardage specialist Brian Robinson Jr. behind Bijan Robinson.

Heavy run rates compress possessions and clock.
• Defensive Baseline: Pittsburgh allowed 21.38 points per game across its final eight last season and returns Jalen Ramsey and Jaquan Brisker healthy against a No. 3 quarterback whose backup is undrafted rookie Jack Strand.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by a halo effect.

Rodgers, Metcalf, and Pittman carry name recognition that props this number up, but names do not run an offense that has never operated together in live conditions.

Our framework discounts last season's passing output against a 43-year-old quarterback installing his timing with receivers he has never played beside, while Atlanta's ceiling is defined by a hobbled third-stringer facing a healthy Pittsburgh secondary.

The market is paying for a ceiling neither offense can access Sunday.

EDGE ON: Under 41 (-110)

I like the Under

BENNETT EDGE ON Sacramento State +18 -110

Our Edge: We are exploiting an anchoring gap where the market has priced Fresno State's conference label at nearly three touchdowns, while the projected quality gap between these programs sits at 11.5 points on a neutral field.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Overall Projection: Fresno State enters at 99th nationally (-7.6) against Sacramento State's 125th (-19.1).

Both teams have played zero games this season, so these ratings are projections built on prior-season inputs, and the projected gap is 11.5 points.

Add a standard home-field bump and the number still lands closer to 14 than 18.

• SP+ Offensive Projection: Fresno State projects 117th nationally at 18.1, barely ahead of Sacramento State's 123rd-ranked 16.6.

Covering an 18-point spread requires the favorite to string together explosive scoring drives, and a bottom-20 projected offense is a poor candidate to do it.

• Prior Season Scoring: Sacramento State averaged 36 points across their six recorded 2025 games and went 4-2 in that stretch, including a 45-16 win over Central Arkansas last September.

That tape shows an offense capable of putting up points late, which is exactly what backdoor covers are made of.

Psychological Edges: The market is anchored to the label gap.

Fresno State carries a Pac-12 badge and a recognizable FBS brand, and Sacramento State arrives with the residue of its FCS history, so the line prices the story of a mismatch rather than the math of one.

My framework discounts name recognition against the Bayesian baseline, and that baseline says these are two bottom-30 projected offenses separated by 11.5 points of quality.

In week two, with no current-season results to update on, the projections are the only signal, and they do not support three touchdowns.

We take the cheap points the anchor is handing out.

EDGE ON: SACRAMENTO STATE +18 (-110)

I like Sacramento State

Iowa State/Iowa: BENNETT EDGE ON over 41

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to the Cy-Hawk rivalry's grinding reputation, priced off last September's 16-13 finish while an Iowa offense projected a full tier above its historical baseline goes unaccounted for.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Offense: Iowa opens 2026 projected 30th nationally on offense (32.1 rating).

That is a preseason projection, but it is built on real tape: the Hawkeyes closed 2025 scoring 40 at Nebraska and 34 at Vanderbilt.
• Scoring Baseline: Across four 2025 games, Iowa averaged 30.25 points per game.

An offense clearing 30 on its own needs only 11 from the visitors to send this over 41.
• Opposing Defense: Iowa State projects 39th in SP+ defense (21.6 rating), and its late 2025 schedule showed the cracks: 38 allowed to Cincinnati in October, 24 to Arizona State in November.
• Cyclone Offense: Iowa State averaged 28.86 points per game across seven 2025 games, including 38 hung on Kansas last November.

This is not a shutout-risk unit, even against a strong front.

Psychological Edges: This total is a textbook availability heuristic trade.

The last meeting produced 29 combined points, and that 16-13 final is the easiest result to recall, so the market anchors there and prices this as another rock fight.

My framework treats one rivalry game as a single Bayesian input weighed against two full-season profiles that both cleared 28 points per game in 2025.

Neither team has played a snap this season, which means this number is set entirely on narrative memory rather than the current projections.

When the anchor is one game and the combined baselines say both offenses can reach the mid-20s, the value sits on the high side of 41.

EDGE ON: Over 41 (-115)

I like the Over

Navy/Florida Atlantic: BENNETT EDGE ON over 58½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to the service-academy narrative rather than the on-field efficiency mismatch, because Florida Atlantic's defense projects among the worst units in FBS while Navy's option converts possessions into points at a top-50 rate.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Defense (FAU): Florida Atlantic projects 133rd in FBS at 38.4.

This early in September that figure leans on prior-season inputs, so treat it as a projection, but it places FAU's defense near the bottom of the entire subdivision.

• SP+ Offense (Navy): The Midshipmen project 48th nationally at 29.4 after averaging 30.22 points per game across nine games last season.

That production came against a schedule far tougher than this defense.

• Points Allowed (Navy): Navy surrendered 25.11 per game last season, including 38 to South Florida in a 41-38 November shootout and 49 at Notre Dame.

The 72nd-ranked defensive projection (26) sits essentially level with FAU's 73rd-ranked offense (25.7).

Neither side profiles as a shutout unit.

Psychological Edges:

The market is trapped by narrative bias, the automatic association between triple-option football and suppressed totals.

That heuristic treats pace as a proxy for scoring, but the two are separate inputs.

Navy runs fewer possessions and cashes a higher share of them, and against a defense projected 133rd in the country those long drives finish in the end zone instead of stalling into punts.

Our framework's Bayesian read updates the low-total prior for opponent quality: when Navy faced an offense capable of trading scores, as South Florida did last November, the game produced 79 combined points.

FAU's offense does not need to be good here, only functional, and the projections say Navy's middling 72nd-ranked defense will permit exactly that.

Fewer possessions, higher conversion, both sides scoring: the math clears 58.5.

EDGE ON: Over 58.5 (-110)

I like the Over

Tulsa/Sam Houston: BENNETT EDGE ON over 51½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to two modest scoring reputations while the matchup itself, a functional Tulsa offense against one of the worst projected defenses in FBS, points toward mutual scoring at plus money.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Defensive Rating: Sam Houston enters 2026 projected 127th nationally at 37.3.

Tulsa's 78th-ranked offense (25.2 rating) draws the softest defensive test on its schedule.
• SP+ Defensive Rating, Tulsa side: Tulsa projects 83rd at 28 and allowed 24 points per game across its listed 2025 games.

That is a middling unit, not a wall.

Sam Houston's 124th-ranked offense will get real possessions.
• 2025 Scoring Tape: When Tulsa's defense cracked last season, totals cleared this number with room to spare: 41-27 at East Carolina in October (68 combined) and 31-24 against UAB in November (55 combined).
• Overall SP+ Gap: Sam Houston's -21.5 team rating (129th) against Tulsa's -2.3 (75th) projects a lopsided script, and lopsided scripts against bottom-five defenses produce points early, before any late clock management enters the picture.

Both teams sit at zero games played this season, so these SP+ figures are preseason-weighted projections.

The case is built on the matchup and last season's tape, not recent form.

Psychological Edges: The market is anchored to both offenses' 2025 raw scoring output, Tulsa's 23.5 points per game in particular, and prices this total as a meeting of two limited attacks.

Anchoring on last season's averages ignores that scoring is opponent-dependent.

Tulsa compiled that 23.5 against a slate that included Oklahoma State and Army.

Against the 127th-ranked defensive projection in the country, the Bayesian-updated baseline shifts materially upward, and even routine offense from Sam Houston at home pushes this game past 52.

EDGE ON: Over 51.5 (+100)

I like the Over

Central Florida/Pittsburgh: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 56½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to opening-week scoreboard fireworks by taking Under 56.5, where the market has priced two blowouts against overmatched opponents as if they were repeatable efficiency.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Projection: Pittsburgh sits 32nd overall at a 10.1 rating, with the defense rated 23.

These ratings lean on prior-season inputs this early, so they are projections, but they describe a competent, balanced team, not a shootout participant.
• 2025 Scoring Defense: Across eight of Pittsburgh's 2025 games, opponents averaged 24.5 points per game.

That baseline supports a total in the low 50s, not one pushing 57.
• Last Season's Tape vs.

Real Competition: Pitt closed 2025 with a 23-17 loss at East Carolina (40 total points), a 38-7 home loss to Miami (45 total), and a 37-15 loss to Notre Dame (52 total).

Three straight finishes against capable opponents, all comfortably under this number.
• Game Environment: Game-day reports call for heavy thunderstorms and rain showers in Pittsburgh.

Wet conditions push both staffs toward the run, keep the clock moving, and compress possessions.

Fewer possessions lowers the scoring ceiling.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

The ease of recalling last week's point totals, UCF hanging 73 and Pittsburgh scoring 59, crowds out the base rate, which is that both outputs came against weak opposition in clean September conditions.

My framework discounts single-game variance against the long-term baseline, and Pittsburgh's 2025 baseline says this team allowed 24.5 a game and repeatedly played low-scoring football whenever the opponent could push back.

Add a thunderstorm forecast that shortens the game, and 56.5 is a price on the narrative, not the math.

EDGE ON: Under 56.5 (-115)

I like the Under

Wake Forest/Purdue: BENNETT EDGE ON over 50½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to Wake Forest's defensive reputation when the actual scoring floor in this matchup runs through Purdue's inability to stop anyone.

Statistical Edges:

• Points Allowed: Purdue gave up 35.57 points per game across seven games last season, including 56 to Indiana, 56 at Notre Dame, and 43 to Illinois in its final stretch.

That number alone nearly covers the Over half of this ticket.

• SP+ Defense (projection): Purdue's defense enters 2026 ranked 67th with a 25.6 rating.

These are preseason projections built on last year's inputs, and last year's inputs were ugly.

• Scoring Output: Wake Forest averaged 29.12 points per game last season and closed with 30 or more in four of its last five, including 43 at Mississippi State in the bowl and 52 against Delaware.

Against the 67th-ranked defensive projection, that output travels.

• Combined Baseline: Wake's 29.12 scored plus Purdue's 35.57 allowed sketches a game environment well north of 50.5 before Purdue's offense contributes a point.

Psychological Edges: The market is anchored to Wake Forest's 43rd-ranked SP+ defensive projection, treating a preseason number as a settled fact in week two when neither team has played a game this season.

That anchoring compresses the total toward a defensive script the underlying scoring history does not support.

My framework discounts the projection halo and weights what both rosters actually produced on the field last fall: Wake scoring in bunches, Purdue bleeding points to every Power Four opponent it faced.

The number should be closer to 54.

EDGE ON: Over 50.5 (-110)

I like the Over

Missouri/Kansas: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 51

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to Missouri's late-2025 offensive slump, when the only tape these two programs share is a 73-point Border War that cleared this number by three touchdowns.

Statistical Edges:

• Head-to-Head Scoring: Missouri beat Kansas 42-31 last September.

That is 73 combined points, 22 clear of tonight's 51-point total, in the one meeting that actually informs this matchup.

• Points Allowed: Kansas conceded 29.14 points per game across its seven 2025 outings and surrendered 31 or more in every one of its listed late-season games: 31 to Utah, 38 at Iowa State, 42 to Kansas State, 37 to Cincinnati, 42 to this Missouri team.

• Scoring Baselines: Missouri averaged 34 points per game over eight 2025 games while Kansas averaged 27.71.

Stack those baselines and you get roughly 62 combined points, more than ten north of the number.

• SP+ Projection: Missouri's offense projects 36th nationally with a 31.2 rating in the 2026 SP+.

Both teams sit at zero games played this season, so that is a preseason projection, but it still profiles as a unit built to score on a Kansas defense that leaked points all last year.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by recency bias.

The final images of Missouri's 2025 offense were a 13-7 loss to Virginia and a 17-6 loss at Oklahoma, and the ease of recalling those two cold outings has dragged this total below where the matchup prices.

My framework discounts that late-season variance against the fuller baseline: 34 points per game across the year, including 42 hung on this exact Kansas defense.

With neither side having played a 2026 snap, the head-to-head tape and season-long scoring averages carry the weight here, and both point comfortably over 51.

EDGE ON: Over 51 (-110)

I like the Over

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON 49ers +4 -115

Our Edge: We are exploiting a market anchored to the Rams' offseason headlines by taking four points on a neutral field where San Francisco's quantitative floor sits well inside this number.

Statistical Edges:

• Scoring baseline: San Francisco averaged 28.57 points per game across its final seven contests of last season while going 5-2, a top-tier offensive output that travels with a fully cleared Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

• Scoring differential: Los Angeles posted 33.12 points per game over its last eight games of 2025 but allowed 26.88 per game in that same stretch.

The offense is real.

The defense that must contain McCaffrey is not, and it now takes the field without Aaron Donald, who did not travel to Melbourne.

• Key-number positioning: The +4 clears the field-goal margin, the single most valuable number in NFL spread markets.

On a true neutral field at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, home-field pricing embedded in this line has no basis, and the hook past three is where the closing value concentrates.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by a halo effect.

Matthew Stafford's MVP season, the Myles Garrett acquisition, and the Donald reunion headlines have built a narrative of Rams inevitability that the underlying numbers do not support.

Neither team has played a game this season, so this price is built entirely on perception, and perception is currently paying full retail for an offense while ignoring a defense that bled nearly 27 points per game down the stretch last year and just lost its interior anchor for the opener.

My framework discounts the offseason storyline against the baseline and finds the gap on the San Francisco side.

EDGE ON: 49ERS +4 (-115)

I like the 49ers

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Patriots +3 +100

Our Edge: We are exploiting a line anchored to February's Super Bowl scoreline rather than to the two rosters actually taking the field, backing New England at even money with a field goal in hand.

Statistical Edges:
• Points Allowed: New England gave up just 16.75 points per game over an eight-game stretch last season, and the unit returns Christian Gonzalez, now the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history, plus Christian Barmore up front.
• Interception Volume: Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold threw 14 interceptions last season, third-most in the league, and he opens 2026 under a new offensive coordinator after Klint Kubiak took the Raiders' head job.
• Run-Game Turnover: Seattle ran at a 49.7 percent rate last season, third in the NFL, but Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker left for Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet opens on reserve/PUP.

Rookie Jadarian Price, held out of the entire preseason, inherits lead duties behind a new play caller.
• Secondary Attrition: Seattle may be without both starting safeties, with Ty Okada ruled out and Nick Emmanwori questionable off ankle surgery, exactly as New England hands Drake Maye an upgraded receiving corps featuring A.J.

Brown and Romeo Doubs.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

The most recallable image of this matchup is Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win seven months ago, and that memory is doing the pricing.

That game featured Walker, a healthy safety group, and a Patriots offense without Brown.

Neither team has played a snap this season, so the baseline should be roster construction, not one memorable February scoreline.

Our framework takes the retooled side at plus money.

EDGE ON: PATRIOTS +3 (+100)

I like the Patriots

SMU/Florida State: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 54½

Our Edge: The market has anchored this total to Florida State's ugly November finish, discounting a combined scoring baseline that cleared 68 points per game last season.

Statistical Edges:

• Points Per Game (2025): Florida State averaged 35.78 across nine games last season and SMU averaged 32.5 across ten.

That combined 68.28 baseline sits nearly 14 points above tonight's number of 54.5.

• Offensive Ceiling (2025 tape): SMU hung 45 on Boston College last November, put 38 on Louisville a week later, and traded 73 combined points with California in a 38-35 loss.

This offense reached the 30s repeatedly against ACC defenses.

• Defensive Leakage (Florida State, 2025): The Seminoles surrendered 40 to Florida in a 61-point game last November and 34 to Pittsburgh in a 65-point game in October.

When the opposing offense executes, games involving this defense clear 54.5 comfortably.

• Season Context: Both teams enter at zero games played in 2026.

With no current-season results, this number is priced entirely off last season's tape, and the full-season scoring baselines on that tape support the over.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by an availability cascade.

Florida State's final month of 2025, 21 against Florida, 11 against NC State, 13 at Stanford, is the easiest tape to recall, and the ease of recalling it is crowding out the base rate.

Our framework applies Bayesian discounting here: a three-game offensive slump gets weighed against a nine-game scoring average of 35.78, not treated as the new baseline.

SMU's 32.5 points per game last season is the more stable input, and it faces a defense that gave up 34 or more twice in 2025.

The market is paying for the memory of November.

We are buying the base rate.

EDGE ON: Over 54.5 (-110)

I like the Over

Washington State/Washington: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 50½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to a week-one rust narrative when the structural mismatch between Washington's offense and Washington State's defense projects one side clearing most of this number by itself.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Offense vs.

Defense: Washington's offense projects 18th nationally with a 33 rating, while Washington State's defense projects 58th at 24.6.

SP+ this early leans on prior-season inputs, so treat it as a projection, but the gap is two full tiers of quality.

• Prior-Season Scoring: Washington averaged 36.14 points per game across seven 2025 contests.

That included 48 at UCLA in November, 38 against Rutgers in October, and 38 against Boise State in December.

This offense reached 38 or more in three of its last five listed games.

• Overall SP+ Gap: Washington projects 18th overall at 15.8; Washington State projects 86th at negative 4.3.

Mismatches of this size tend to generate short fields and extra possessions, and extra possessions feed totals.

• The Cougar Contribution: Washington State's offense projects 107th at 20.4, which is exactly why the market kept this number modest.

But the over does not require efficiency from Pullman.

It requires two or three scores against a defense that will play with a lead and trade yardage for clock in the second half.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by anchoring.

The number is priced off Washington State's roster overhaul and the fact that both teams enter with zero 2026 games played, so bettors default to the sloppy-opener script.

That anchor ignores the base rate: an 18th-ranked SP+ offense that averaged over 36 a game last season, at home, against a 58th-ranked projected defense.

My framework discounts the opener-rust story against Washington's scoring baseline, and the baseline wins.

EDGE ON: Over 50.5 (-110)

I like the Over

UNLV/Hawaii: BENNETT EDGE ON over 55½

Our Edge: We are exploiting an anchoring effect around last November's UNLV 38-10 win over Hawaii, a 48-point outcome that has this total priced below what both scoring profiles project.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Profile: UNLV projects 29th nationally on offense at a 31.4 rating while its defense projects 84th at a 28 rating.

With almost nothing played this season, SP+ leans on prior-year inputs, so treat it as a projection.

But the shape is the point: a top-30 offense attached to a bottom-half defense is the structural blueprint for a shootout.

• 2025 Scoring Baselines: UNLV averaged 34.22 points per game across nine games last season.

Hawaii averaged 27.9 across ten.

Those baselines sum to 62.1, clearing this number by more than a touchdown before any pace adjustment.

• Hawaii at Home, Late 2025: Hawaii put up 38 on San Diego State in November, 27 on Wyoming, and closed with a 35-31 bowl win over California, a 66-point game.

This offense scores in Honolulu.

• UNLV Ceiling: UNLV's late-November 2025 win over Nevada finished 42-17, 59 combined points, showing what this offense produces when the script cooperates.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

The single easiest result to recall in this series is the November 21, 2025 meeting, when UNLV beat Hawaii 38-10 and the game landed 48 combined.

That memory is doing the pricing here.

My framework discounts one lopsided road performance from Hawaii against the fuller record: Hawaii scored 27 or more in each of its final three home games last season, and this game is in Honolulu, not Las Vegas.

Bayesian updating says one head-to-head outlier should not outweigh two full-season baselines that sum past 62 and a defensive projection that ranks 84th nationally.

EDGE ON: Over 55.5 (-105)

I like the Over

Central Michigan/New Mexico: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 46

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to Central Michigan's low-scoring 2025 tape, one that ignores how much of this number New Mexico's offense can carry against Central Michigan's 96th-ranked defense alone.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Defensive Rating: Central Michigan projects 96th nationally at 30.4 and allowed 25.75 points per game last season, including 34 to Northwestern in December.
• SP+ Offensive Rating: New Mexico projects 70th at 25.6 after averaging 26.29 points per game in 2025.

Two of their last five games last season reached at least 63 combined points.
• Total Benchmark: At 46, a routine 27-20 scoreline cashes.

Neither side needs an above-average day.

New Mexico's scoring baseline plus Central Michigan's defensive allowance already project near the number.
• Season Context: Both teams are 0-0, so these SP+ figures are projections built on prior-season inputs.

The projection gap still favors scoring: New Mexico's offense outranks Central Michigan's defense by 26 spots.

Psychological Edges: The number itself is a product of the availability heuristic.

Central Michigan's most recallable 2025 results, a 21-3 loss to Toledo and a 27-6 win over Bowling Green, make 46 combined points feel like a reach, so the line was hung low.

My framework discounts those vivid scores against the structural matchup: even a 122nd-ranked offense faces only the 96th-ranked defense here, while New Mexico's 26-point baseline does the heavy lifting.

Bettors who let last season's ugliest box scores crowd out the base rate are pricing the wrong side of this equation.

The base rate says 46 is a modest ask in September.

EDGE ON: Over 46 (-128)

I like the Over

Florida International/South Florida: BENNETT EDGE ON over 51½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a market anchored to Week 1 uncertainty and one ugly bowl result by taking the Over at a number South Florida's own scoring baseline nearly clears by itself.

Statistical Edges:

• Scoring Baseline: Across eight tracked games in 2025, South Florida averaged 43.5 points scored and 25.62 allowed.

That is a combined 69.1 points per game environment, more than 17 points above this total.

• Total Clearance: Four of South Florida's last five games in 2025 cleared 51.5 with room to spare: 99 combined against North Texas in October, 65 at Memphis in late October, 78 against UTSA in November, and 79 at Navy in mid-November.

• Defensive Leak: That same 25.62 points allowed per game means the Over does not require FIU to be efficient.

It requires FIU to be functional against a defense that gave up 34, 36, and 41 in three of those late-2025 games.

• Quarterback Ceiling: South Florida hands the offense to transfer quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., and FIU counters with transfer quarterback JJ Kohl.

Two new arms with vertical upside raise variance, and variance in a 69-point baseline environment favors the Over, not the Under.

Psychological Edges: Both teams have played zero games this season, so the market is pricing this off narrative rather than tape.

The specific mechanism is an availability heuristic: South Florida's most recent result, a 24-10 December loss to Old Dominion, is the easiest game to recall, and it crowds out the base rate of the full 2025 profile.

Our framework discounts that single low-output game against the season-long 69-point combined average.

The market is paying for the memory of one flat night.

We are buying the baseline.

EDGE ON: Over 51.5 (-115)

I like the Over

BENNETT EDGE ON Pittsburgh -16½ -108

Our Edge: We are exploiting a market anchored to Pittsburgh's ugly finish to last season, laying 16.5 against a Miami-OH team handing its offense to a quarterback with zero career college pass attempts.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Overall: Pittsburgh projects 40th nationally with a 6.2 rating entering 2026.

That number is a projection built on prior-year inputs this early, but it frames a Power Four program hosting a MAC visitor, and the gap is structural, not situational.
• SP+ Offense: The Panthers project 42nd with a 30 offensive rating, and last season they averaged 31.75 points per game across their eight tracked contests.

The scoring baseline needed to clear this number is already on tape.
• Blowout ceiling: Last October, Pittsburgh handled Boston College 48-7 at home.

When the opposing front is overmatched, this offense has already demonstrated the margin this line requires.
• Quarterback asymmetry: Miami-OH lost starting quarterback Thomas Gotkowski to a season-ending camp injury, pushing Kansas transfer David McComb into his first career college snaps against Power Four pressure.

There is no efficiency floor to price for a passer with zero attempts.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by recency bias.

The most available Pittsburgh memories are the ones that closed 2025: a 38-7 home loss to the Miami Hurricanes, a 37-15 loss to Notre Dame, and a bowl defeat to East Carolina.

Those results are easy to recall and they compress this line.

Our framework discounts that late-season variance against the fuller baseline: a team that scored nearly 32 a game across its tracked schedule now opens at home against a MAC opponent breaking in a debut quarterback.

The narrative says Pittsburgh limped to the finish.

The math says the visitor cannot sustain enough possessions for that story to matter.

EDGE ON: PITTSBURGH -16.5 (-108)

I like Pittsburgh

North Texas/Indiana: BENNETT EDGE ON over 56

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to Indiana's defensive reputation when the projected combined scoring floor between the country's #7 SP+ offense and the #121 SP+ defense clears 57 on Indiana's side of the ledger alone.

Statistical Edges:
• SP+ Offense: Indiana projects 7th nationally at 37.8, and last season the Hoosiers averaged 43.3 points a game, hanging 56 on Oregon in January and 38 on Alabama on New Year's Day.
• SP+ Defense: North Texas projects 121st at 35 after allowing 30 points per game across last season.

This is the softest defensive profile Indiana will see all year.
• Scoring Environment: North Texas averaged 44.5 points per game in 2025 and its game logs read like over tickets: a 96-point total against San Diego State in December, 83 against Temple, 80 against Rice.

The Mean Green offense projects 88th in SP+, functional enough to add two or three scores.
• Season Context: Neither team has played a 2026 game, so these SP+ figures are projections built on prior-season inputs.

Both projections point the same direction here.

Psychological Edges: The market's resistance to this number is a textbook availability heuristic.

Bettors can easily recall Indiana holding Alabama to 3 and Ohio State to 10, so the shutdown images crowd out the base rate: North Texas plays at a tempo that manufactures possessions, and Indiana's own offense has crossed 50 twice in its last five games of tape.

Our framework discounts the marquee defensive results against the actual matchup, a top-10 scoring unit facing a bottom-15 defense in a game where one side can nearly clear the total alone.

EDGE ON: Over 56 (-120)

I like the Over

San Jose State/Eastern Michigan: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 55½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a market anchored to Eastern Michigan's grind-it-out 2025 identity in a Week 1 opener where prior-season defensive leakage, not offensive reputation, is the more transferable signal.

Statistical Edges:

• Points Against (2025): Eastern Michigan allowed 24.75 per game across eight 2025 games, and the late-season trend ran hotter: 28 to Ohio, 31 to Western Michigan, and 44 at Miami Ohio in three of their final five.

• Shootout Ceiling: When EMU got pulled into an up-tempo game last October, the result was a 44-30 loss at Miami Ohio, 74 combined points, nearly three touchdowns clear of this number.

That is the game script San Jose State's offense is built to force.

• Offensive Baseline (2025): EMU averaged 23.25 per game itself last season and reached 27 or more twice in their final five (30 at Miami Ohio, 27 against Bowling Green), so this total does not require San Jose State to carry the scoring alone.

• Game Conditions: Kickoff at Rynearson Stadium projects 80 degrees with 5 mph winds, removing any weather-based drag on passing volume or field-goal range.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

The easiest EMU tape to recall is their low-scoring November: a 33-point night at Ball State, a 48-point total against Bowling Green.

Those are last season's outputs from a roster and a coaching install that no longer exist in the same form.

Neither team has played a snap in 2026, and Week 1 systematically favors offenses over defenses still building communication, which is exactly where EMU's 2025 tape showed the deepest cracks.

Bettors are pricing a prior-season identity as if it were a current-season fact.

We take the side where that narrative and the transferable evidence diverge.

EDGE ON: Over 55.5 (-105)

I like the Over

UMass/Rutgers: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 51½

Our Edge: The market has anchored this total to UMass's anemic 2025 offense and priced a one-sided game, but the combined defensive profiles push the quantitative floor of this matchup well above 51.5.

Statistical Edges:

• Points Allowed (UMass, 2025): 42.75 per game across their listed games last season, conceding at least 42 in every single one: 42 to Temple, 42 to Kent State, 42 to Ohio, 45 to Bowling Green.

Rutgers' half of this total projects into the mid-40s against that unit on its own.

• SP+ Offense (Rutgers, 2026 projection): 35th nationally at a 30.8 rating.

This early, SP+ leans on prior-season inputs and reads as a projection, not a result, but it frames Rutgers as a top-third offense stepping down several weight classes in week one.

• SP+ Defense (Rutgers, 2026 projection): 86th nationally at 28.2.

This is the underpriced half of the number.

UMass does not need to be functional against a bottom-40 projected defense, only opportunistic.

• Rutgers Points Allowed (2025): 35 or more surrendered in four of five listed games late last season, including a 40-36 loss to Penn State, a 76-point combined game.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by anchoring.

Bettors see UMass's 11 points per game and 0-4 record from 2025 and conclude the Minutemen contribute nothing, while the ease of recalling those blowout losses crowds out the more relevant base rate: Rutgers' own defense projects 86th and got shredded repeatedly down the stretch last November.

Neither team has played a snap this season, so the +100 price is a narrative price, not a results price.

My framework takes the side where both defensive floors point the same direction, and here they both point up.

EDGE ON: Over 51.5 (+100)

I like the Over

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Sacramento State +9½ -105

Our Edge
The market is pricing Sacramento State's FBS debut as a class gap, but the SP+ separation between these two teams is only 7.3 points, and the number is asking for nearly ten.

Statistical Edges
• SP+ Rating: Eastern Michigan rates -16.1 (122nd) against Sacramento State's -23.4 (131st).

A 7.3-point neutral-field gap does not support a 9.5-point spread.
• Scoring Output: Sacramento State averaged 36.7 points per game over its last 10 (33.4 over its last 5).

Eastern Michigan averaged 23.2.

The team asked to win by double digits scores 13.5 fewer points per game.
• Defensive SP+: Eastern Michigan's defense ranks 109th at 33.4 and has allowed 26.6 points per game over its last 5, including 44 to Miami (OH) and 31 to Western Michigan.

That is not a unit built to enforce a two-score margin.
• Recent Record: Sacramento State is 6-4 in its last 10 and 3-2 in its last 5.

Eastern Michigan is 4-6 and 2-3.

Psychological Edges
The market is trapped by categorical anchoring. "FCS program moving up" is a label, and labels get priced as if the roster were rebuilt from scratch.

Sacramento State's move is a conference designation, not a talent reset, and SP+ already accounts for it.

The number reflects the story of the debut, not the 7.3-point rating gap underneath it.

Eastern Michigan's own profile compounds the mispricing.

A 4-6 team with a 117th-ranked offense at 17.2 gets treated as the established side on familiarity alone.

My framework discounts that halo and prices this closer to a touchdown.

EDGE ON: SACRAMENTO STATE +9.5 (-105)

I like Sacramento State

North Carolina/TCU: BENNETT EDGE ON over 46

Our Edge: The market has anchored this number to two top-40 SP+ defensive rankings that neither team's actual scoreboard output supports, and 46 sits nearly ten points below the combined schedule-adjusted offensive expectation for these rosters.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Offensive Rating: TCU grades 29th nationally at 31.4 and North Carolina grades 79th at 24.3.

That is 55.7 points of schedule-adjusted expected output against a posted total of 46.

The projection systems and the betting number disagree by roughly a touchdown and a half.

• Points Allowed, Last 5 (North Carolina): 41.6 per game, against 37 across the full ten-game sample.

The Tar Heels carry a 35th-ranked SP+ defensive rating of 21.2, but that figure is a forward projection.

The realized results moved the other direction all season.

• Points Allowed, Last 5 (TCU): 31.4 per game, up sharply from 23.4 across ten games.

Both defenses trended worse into the offseason, not better.

• TCU Scoring, Last 5: 30.8 per game.

The Horned Frogs cleared two thirds of this number by themselves in 45-23 over Cincinnati, 42-36 over Baylor, and 30-27 over USC.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by anchoring.

Bettors and books alike are fixing on the pair of top-40 SP+ defensive rankings and the Week 0 script of unfamiliar quarterbacks and slick conditions, then adjusting the total downward from a story rather than upward from a base rate.

My framework weights the realized sample over the label: 41.6 and 31.4 points allowed over the most recent five games each are the Bayesian-updated inputs here, and both point the same way.

North Carolina's 3-7 record and 21.7 points per game reinforce a low-scoring narrative that describes their offense, not the game total.

Defensive fragility is what actually cashes this ticket.

EDGE ON: Over 46 (+100)

I like the Over

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Patriots +5 -110

Our Edge
We are exploiting a massive market inflation driven by recency bias surrounding Seattle’s high-scoring NFC Championship win and an overreaction to the questionable tag on Drake Maye’s shoulder.

Statistical Edges
• New England enters Super Bowl LX with a 14-6 ATS record, including a perfect 6-0 mark in their white uniforms, which they have elected to wear as the designated home team.
• While the market is backing Sam Darnold, his performance metrics show a severe late-season collapse; his QBR dropped from 77.9 in the first half of the season to a dismal 37.4 over the final nine weeks.
• Historical Super Bowl data serves as a corrective to this spread; favorites of 4.5 points or more are just 1-10 ATS since 2000, suggesting the public frequently overprices the perceived superior side in neutral-site championships.
• The New England defense has reached a peak in schedule-adjusted efficiency, surrendering only 7 points in the AFC Championship and ranking top-three in success rate against the explosive pass plays that Seattle relies on.

Psychological Edges
The market is suffering from a classic availability bias, fixating on the news of Drake Maye missing Friday’s practice while ignoring that Mike Vrabel has already successfully navigated high-stakes games with a limited roster. Bayesian updating on the Patriots' 13-1 run since Week 3 suggests their defensive floor is much higher than the current five-point spread indicates. Bettors are anchoring to Seattle’s flashy playoff point totals, but they are failing to account for the cognitive gap between a dome-boosted offense and a Patriots unit that thrives on creating high-pressure, low-possession environments.

EDGE ON: Patriots +5 (-110)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 41

Our Edge
The market has correctly reacted to Bo Nix being sidelined with a broken ankle, but the total remains too high because it fails to account for the extreme offensive contraction Sean Payton will use to protect Jarrett Stidham against a New England defense that just forced six turnovers in the divisional round.

Statistical Edges
• Denver’s defense finished the regular season ranked first in schedule-adjusted efficiency, allowing a league-low 4.46 yards per play and forcing a 36 percent success rate on early downs.
• New England’s offense relies on a high-volume passing attack from Drake Maye, but the unit’s EPA per play drops by 14 percent when temperatures fall below freezing in high-altitude environments like Mile High.
• The Broncos defensive front ranks second in yards per carry allowed, which will force New England to rely on a passing game that must now contend with a pass rush that recorded 56 sacks this year.
• Jarrett Stidham has only taken one live snap all season, and my Bayesian projection suggests a significant drop in offensive success rate as Payton likely shifts to a heavy rushing attack to help his backup.

Psychological Edges
The betting public is suffering from an anchoring bias rooted in Denver’s 33-point shootout win over Buffalo last week, ignoring that those points were tied to a healthy starting quarterback. The market also misses the behavioral shift that occurs when a veteran coach manages a backup in a championship game; Payton will prioritize ball security and clock management over explosive plays. This creates a value gap where the actual pace of the game will be much slower than the market's current expectation of a high-scoring playoff atmosphere.

EDGE ON: Under 41

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 48½

Our Edge
The market is trapped by the availability heuristic after Indiana’s 55-point explosion against Oregon, failing to account for a championship game script that favors conservative clock management and defensive regression toward elite season-long averages.

Statistical Edges
• Indiana enters this matchup with the second-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing only 10.3 points per game, and has limited opponents to a sub-40% success rate in the red zone throughout the playoffs.
• While Indiana is missing key edge rushers Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt, the cluster injury on the defensive line has forced a tactical shift to a more conservative deep-shell coverage that effectively eliminates the explosive passing plays Miami relies on.
• Schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics show that Miami’s offense struggles against disciplined fronts, and with defensive anchors Akheem Mesidor and Ahmad Moten Sr. confirmed active, the Hurricanes possess the interior strength to turn this into a trench-warfare struggle.
• Historical pace ratings for Mario Cristobal teams in high-leverage situations show a 12% decrease in snaps per game compared to regular-season averages, as his philosophy shifts toward ball control and field position.

Psychological Edges
Public perception is heavily anchored to the high-scoring semifinal round, creating an overreaction to Indiana's recent offensive output. This narrative bias overlooks the psychological tightening that typically defines a national title environment. Betting markets frequently fail to apply proper Bayesian updating when a team has one outlier performance, leading to an inflated total. We are fading the public's memory of a blowout and betting on the reality of two top-ten defensive units that prioritize risk mitigation over aggressive downfield shots. When the pressure peaks, coaches revert to their most stable habits, which for these two programs means running the football and leaning on defensive stops.

EDGE ON: UNDER 48.5 (-110)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Bears +4½ -115

Our Edge
This line is a textbook example of name-brand inflation where the market overvalues the Rams' star-studded offensive ceiling while ignoring the high-variance risk of a cold-weather road spot for an injured Matthew Stafford.

Statistical Edges
• Stafford’s success rate plummeted by 18% in the second half of the Wild Card round following the injury to the index finger on his throwing hand, a metric that historical player tracking data suggests will significantly hamper his deep-ball accuracy in freezing temperatures.
• The Bears defense ranks third in the league in red zone EPA per play over the final six weeks, a sustainabilty marker that outweighs the loss of linebacker T.J. Edwards when facing a Rams offense that struggled to a 45% touchdown conversion rate in the red area during their last three road games.
• Chicago is 8-2 against the spread as a home underdog under the current coaching regime, benefitting from a schedule-adjusted efficiency rating that identifies Soldier Field as the most difficult environment for dome-reliant passing attacks.

Psychological Edges
Market participants are suffering from a massive case of recency bias, focusing on the flashy 34-point output the Rams produced against a weak Carolina secondary while dismissing the Bears' seventh fourth-quarter comeback as mere luck. By applying a Bayesian update to the Bears' late-game performance, we see a repeatable pattern of situational play-calling superiority from Ben Johnson rather than the statistical anomaly the public perception suggests. The betting public is paying a premium for the Davante Adams and Puka Nacua highlights, effectively pricing this game as if it were being played in Los Angeles rather than an outdoor January environment that favors the Bears' high-efficiency ground game and Caleb Williams' ability to create outside of structure.

EDGE ON: BEARS +4.5 (-115)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 46½

Our Edge
The market is anchoring to the 49ers' reputation for postseason explosiveness while failing to update for the massive drop in schedule-adjusted efficiency following George Kittle’s season-ending Achilles injury.

Statistical Edges
• San Francisco’s Success Rate plummeted in their 13-3 Week 18 loss to Seattle, producing just 173 total yards—the lowest mark in nine seasons under Kyle Shanahan.
• The loss of George Kittle removes the 49ers’ highest-graded run blocker and primary third-down outlet, which historical player tracking data suggests will lead to a 14% decrease in Brock Purdy’s completion percentage under pressure.
• The Seattle defense has evolved under Mike Macdonald into a coverage-first unit that prioritizes capping explosive plays, leading to a pace rating that ranks in the bottom five of the league over the final six weeks of the season.

Psychological Edges
Availability bias is driving this line. Public bettors are fixated on Christian McCaffrey’s late-game heroics against Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, leading them to ignore the three quarters of stagnant offensive play that preceded it. We are seeing a classic narrative bias where the market assumes Kyle Shanahan will simply find a schematic fix for the Kittle absence, but our Bayesian updating shows that against a Macdonald-led defense, the 49ers' ability to stay on schedule on third-and-long is severely compromised. Furthermore, there is a perception gap regarding Sam Darnold; while the public expects high-variance mistakes, the Seahawks have coached him into a conservative game-manager role that emphasizes ball control and defensive field position, effectively bleeding the clock and suppressing the total.

EDGE ON: UNDER 46.5 (-110)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Steelers +3 +102

Our Edge
We are grabbing the points with a Pittsburgh team that is significantly better than its 10-7 record suggests now that the roster is finally whole for the postseason.

Statistical Edges
• The T.J. Watt Factor: The Steelers’ defensive success rate jumps by 14% when Watt is on the field, and his return from a lung injury is the biggest "Bayesian update" of the week. Watt has historically dismantled the Texans' front, and he faces a Houston offensive line with both Tytus Howard and Trent Brown limited by ankle injuries.
• Offensive Reinforcement: The return of DK Metcalf from a two-game suspension completely changes the math for Aaron Rodgers. Metcalf’s vertical gravity will pull safeties away from the box, creating more room for the Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell duo, who both cleared 1,000 yards from scrimmage this season.
• Passing Efficiency: While the public loves C.J. Stroud, the Steelers’ pass rush at full strength leads the league in forced "off-platform" throws. With Rodgers’ playoff experience (103.2 career postseason passer rating) against a Texans secondary missing key safety depth, the veteran edge is real.

Psychological Edges
The market is suffering from "Narrative Bias," overvaluing Houston’s 12-5 record and Stroud’s Week 18 rest while ignoring that Pittsburgh has been playing "do-or-die" football for a month. Most bettors see a "lucky" 10-win team, but our tracking data shows a squad that just hit its peak power rating with the return of its two most impactful non-quarterbacks.

EDGE ON: Steelers +3.0 (+102)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Bills -1 -110

Our Edge
We are exploiting a "Status Quo Bias" that overvalues Jacksonville’s home-field advantage and division-winner status while ignoring Buffalo’s superior underlying efficiency metrics and a massive mismatch in the trenches.

Statistical Edges
• Offensive Success Rate: Buffalo enters this Wild Card matchup ranking 3rd in the NFL with a 48.4% Success Rate. Conversely, Jacksonville’s defensive secondary has regressed to 24th in Success Rate against the pass over the last month, leaving them vulnerable to a Buffalo air attack that averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in their last meeting.
• The Trench Gap: Jaguars starting LT Cole Van Lanen is Questionable with a knee injury. He faces a Buffalo pass rush featuring a fully healthy Joey Bosa (Full participant). When the Jaguars' offensive line win rate drops below 50%, Trevor Lawrence’s turnover-worthy play rate jumps by 3.2%.
• Situational Dominance: Josh Allen is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games when the spread is three points or fewer. In high-leverage "coin-flip" games, the Bills’ schedule-adjusted EPA (Expected Points Added) per play is consistently 0.12 points higher than Jacksonville’s.

Psychological Edges
The market is currently blinded by "Recency Bias" and the "Availability Heuristic." The public sees Jacksonville’s eight-game winning streak and assumes they are the better team. However, "Bayesian Updating" shows us that Jacksonville’s streak was built against a bottom-quartile strength of schedule. The public is overreacting to the Bills being a "Wild Card" team, failing to realize that Buffalo’s power rating has remained higher than Jacksonville’s all season. We are fading the narrative of the "hot home team" to back the superior quantitative roster.

EDGE ON: BILLS -1.0 (-110)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Packers -1½ -102

Our Edge
We are exploiting a massive recency bias discount on Green Bay by using Bayesian updating to price Jordan Love’s return and Josh Jacobs’ fresh legs against a Bears defense missing its primary secondary communicator.

Statistical Edges
• Before his Week 16 concussion, Jordan Love ranked 5th in schedule-adjusted EPA per dropback; the market is pricing this offense based on the Malik Willis-led efficiency drop, which is a math error.
• The Bears are ruled out without safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (concussion), a loss that spikes their expected points allowed on explosive plays by 22% based on tracking data from earlier this season.
• Josh Jacobs is reporting his best physical condition in six weeks after a strategic rest; his success rate on early downs is projected to jump against a Chicago front that ranks 19th in rushing success rate allowed since December.

Psychological Edges
The market is obsessed with the "7-seed on a losing streak" narrative and the Bears' Week 16 overtime win, but they are ignoring that Love’s injury mid-game caused that result. Public bettors are overvaluing the Bears' #2 seed status while failing to realize that Green Bay’s efficiency metrics with a healthy Love are actually 3.5 points higher than Chicago’s on a neutral field.

EDGE ON: PACKERS -1.5 (-102)

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 47

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Ravens -3 -115

BENNETT EDGE ON over 43½

BENNETT EDGE ON Panthers +3½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 45½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Mississippi State -3 -108

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 48½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 47

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 61½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 49½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Appalachian State +7½ -110

BENNETT EDGE ON over 38½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 51½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 46½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Clemson -3 -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Florida International +6½ -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Broncos -5½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 54½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 62½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 46

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Utah State -3 -110

BENNETT EDGE ON Ravens -1½ -115

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Cowboys -2½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 46½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 51½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Western Michigan -3½ -115

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Arkansas State +1½ -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Seahawks -1 -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Old Dominion +4½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Jacksonville State +4 -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Steelers -3½ -105

BENNETT EDGE ON over 51½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Ravens -3 +100

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 39½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Bucs -5½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Eagles -3 -115

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 39½

BENNETT EDGE ON Commanders +2½ -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Ohio State -5½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 48½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 53½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 47

BENNETT EDGE ON under 43½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Cardinals +6½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 52½

BENNETT EDGE ON over 53½

BENNETT EDGE ON under 61½

BENNETT EDGE ON Pittsburgh +7 -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 50½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 45½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Navy +3½ -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Packers +3 -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 45½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Panthers +7 -105

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 49½

BENNETT EDGE ON Bengals +6 -112

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Pittsburgh +3 -110

BENNETT EDGE ON Colorado State +17½ -110

BENNETT EDGE ON North Carolina +7 -110

BENNETT EDGE ON Florida Atlantic +7½ -110

BENNETT EDGE ON UTEP -2½ -110

BENNETT EDGE ON SMU -3 -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON UNLV -2½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 44

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Arkansas State -2½ -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Central Michigan -7 -110

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 51½

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Cowboys -3 -115

BENNETT EDGE ON Bears +3 -115