TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 41

Our Edge
The market has correctly reacted to Bo Nix being sidelined with a broken ankle, but the total remains too high because it fails to account for the extreme offensive contraction Sean Payton will use to protect Jarrett Stidham against a New England defense that just forced six turnovers in the divisional round.

Statistical Edges
• Denver’s defense finished the regular season ranked first in schedule-adjusted efficiency, allowing a league-low 4.46 yards per play and forcing a 36 percent success rate on early downs.
• New England’s offense relies on a high-volume passing attack from Drake Maye, but the unit’s EPA per play drops by 14 percent when temperatures fall below freezing in high-altitude environments like Mile High.
• The Broncos defensive front ranks second in yards per carry allowed, which will force New England to rely on a passing game that must now contend with a pass rush that recorded 56 sacks this year.
• Jarrett Stidham has only taken one live snap all season, and my Bayesian projection suggests a significant drop in offensive success rate as Payton likely shifts to a heavy rushing attack to help his backup.

Psychological Edges
The betting public is suffering from an anchoring bias rooted in Denver’s 33-point shootout win over Buffalo last week, ignoring that those points were tied to a healthy starting quarterback. The market also misses the behavioral shift that occurs when a veteran coach manages a backup in a championship game; Payton will prioritize ball security and clock management over explosive plays. This creates a value gap where the actual pace of the game will be much slower than the market's current expectation of a high-scoring playoff atmosphere.

EDGE ON: Under 41

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON under 46½

Our Edge
The market is anchoring to the 49ers' reputation for postseason explosiveness while failing to update for the massive drop in schedule-adjusted efficiency following George Kittle’s season-ending Achilles injury.

Statistical Edges
• San Francisco’s Success Rate plummeted in their 13-3 Week 18 loss to Seattle, producing just 173 total yards—the lowest mark in nine seasons under Kyle Shanahan.
• The loss of George Kittle removes the 49ers’ highest-graded run blocker and primary third-down outlet, which historical player tracking data suggests will lead to a 14% decrease in Brock Purdy’s completion percentage under pressure.
• The Seattle defense has evolved under Mike Macdonald into a coverage-first unit that prioritizes capping explosive plays, leading to a pace rating that ranks in the bottom five of the league over the final six weeks of the season.

Psychological Edges
Availability bias is driving this line. Public bettors are fixated on Christian McCaffrey’s late-game heroics against Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, leading them to ignore the three quarters of stagnant offensive play that preceded it. We are seeing a classic narrative bias where the market assumes Kyle Shanahan will simply find a schematic fix for the Kittle absence, but our Bayesian updating shows that against a Macdonald-led defense, the 49ers' ability to stay on schedule on third-and-long is severely compromised. Furthermore, there is a perception gap regarding Sam Darnold; while the public expects high-variance mistakes, the Seahawks have coached him into a conservative game-manager role that emphasizes ball control and defensive field position, effectively bleeding the clock and suppressing the total.

EDGE ON: UNDER 46.5 (-110)