1 Dimer on Twins +197
1* Free Pick on Indians +171
Free Pick on Pirates
1* FREE INFO PLAY on Twins vs Blue Jays over 9 -110
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New England Patriots -6
The New England Patriots were as impressive as any 0-1 team last week. They deserved to win the game but lost 16-17 at home to Miami after fumbling going in for what would have likely been the game-winning touchdown.
The Patriots racked up 393 total yards against a good Dolphins defense and averaged 5.6 yards per play. They held the Dolphins to just 259 total yards and 5.0 yards per play, outgaining them by 134 yards for the game and 0.6 yards per play. Mac Jones was impressive in his debut, completing 29-of-39 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown while only taking one sack.
The New York Jets 'only' lost on the road to the Carolina Panthers 19-14. But keep in mind the Panthers were up 16-0 in that game and got pretty vanilla in the second half. But the Panthers were all over Zach Wilson, who clearly has little help with this team. The Jets only averaged 4.2 yards per play and managed 252 total yards while giving up 381 total yards and 6.0 yards per play.
Wilson just lost his best offensive lineman in Mekhi Becton to a season-ending injury last week, so he'll be running for his life again. This is a Jets team with laundry list of injuries already with five offensive linemen on the IR. They just lost one of their best defensive players in S Lamarcus Joyner last week to a season-ending injury as well.
There's just too much on rookie Wilson's shoulders in the early going. And Bill Belichick not only dominates rookie quarterbacks, he is also tremendous coming off a loss. Belichick is 57-34 ATS off a loss as the coach of New England. He is 12-4 ATS in road games off a division loss as the coach of the Patriots. He is also 29-14 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as their head coach. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
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Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Baltimore Ravens +4
The Key: The Baltimore Ravens were 2.5-point underdogs in the lookahead line before they played Monday night against the Raiders. Now they are 4-point dogs to the Chiefs. I like the price we are getting with the Ravens here. They need this game like blood to avoid falling to 0-2. And we will get a big effort from them because of it. They have the formula to beat the Chiefs. They led the NFL in rushing last year and do a great job of controlling the clock. They will take that approach here against a Chiefs team that was fortunate to beat the Browns 33-29 in their opener after erasing a double-digit deficit. The Chiefs allowed 153 rushing yards and 5.9 YPC against the Browns. Lamar Jackson and company will be able to run wild on them as well. Some key defenders in S Matthieu, LB Hitchens and DE Clark are all questionable for the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and have been getting too much respect consistently. The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Take Baltimore.
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My free play is on the Phi Phillies at 7:10 ET.
The Phillies visit Citi Field Friday night for the opening of a three-game series with the Mets. Philadelphia earned a historic win Thursday night, when it overcame an early seven-run deficit to rout the visiting Chicago Cubs 17-8 in the rubber game of a three-game series. The Phillies are the first National League team in the modern era to win a game by at least nine runs after trailing by at least seven. Meanwhile, the Mets were off Thursday after the visiting St Louis Cardinals completed a damaging three-game sweep with an 11-4 win Wednesday night. The 74-72 Phillies are three games back of the first-place Braves in the NL East, while the Mets have fallen 5 1/2-games off the pace. As for the teams' wild card status, the Phillies are 2 1/2-games back of the No. 2 wild card spot, while the Mets are five games back.
Friday's starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler (13-9, 2.86 ERA) for Philadelphia and Taijuan Walker (7-9, 4.29 ERA) for New York. Wheeler has won THREE straight starts, opening September 2-0 with an 0.71 ERA (one ER allowed on a solo HR over 12.2 innings). As for Walker, his last victory came way back on June 24. He's winless over his last nine starts, going 0-6 (team is 1-8) with an ERA of 6.52.
Wheeler was part of the Mets' organization from 2011-19 before signing with the Phillies in December 2019. He is 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA in seven starts against his ex-teammates, including a two-hit shutout against New York on Aug 8, striking out 11 and walking one in a 3-0 victory. No reason NOT to like him again here, as the Mets own the fifth-worst record in MLB (16-27) since Aug 1. Don't forget, Wheeler's counterpart (Walker), is winless in his last nine (team is 1-8).
Rockies (Marquez) @ Nationals (Gray) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Rockies -109
Washington’s Josiah Gray is 0-3 in his last 3 teams starts with a massive 12.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Washington is coming off an 8-6 loss to Miami in their previous game. The Nationals have gone a dismal 9-28 this season following a loss by 2 runs or less.
Colorado entered this current road trip with an abysmal road record of 18-50. However, the Rockies have won 5 of 6 thus far on this road swing and find themselves in a rare role as an away money line favorite. German Marquez is an extremely profitable 14-6 in his team starts at night this season with a more than respectable 3.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Marquez will be facing a Washington team that has a terrible season record of 60-86 (.411). That’s significant because since the starts of last season, Marquez is an unscathed 11-0 in his team starts when facing a team with a win percentage of between .380 and.460. Furthermore, this current Washington roster has gone a horrible 3-38 (.079 BA) lifetime when facing Marquez). Bet on the Rockies for a money line wager.
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Free Play on Rays -200
Mikey Sports FREE WNBA play Friday 9-17-21
Minnesota -9 1/2
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Play - Purdue (Game 137).
Edges - Boilermakers: 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points … Irish: 1-5 ATS last six as home favorites, and 2-6 ATS at home when coming off a home game. We recommend a 1* play on Purdue. Thank you and good luck as always.
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1* on White Sox -185
1* Free Pick on Central Florida/Louisville under 70 -110
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
1* NCAAF - S Carolina/Georgia FREE PICK on Georgia -18 (1st Half)
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick is on the Georgia Bulldogs -18 in the 1st Half at home against the South Carolina Gamecocks (1H plays aren't allowed on the site, so I had to publish pick with the game spread...I don't love the -31 for the game nearly as much as I do the -18 for the half, but would lean that way if I had to).
Georgia is a team that I want to bet as much as possible, but sometimes the game spread just isn't the best option. You just never can feel good about laying 30 points against a conference opponent. It's just really hard to predict what's going to happen in garbage time once the starters have been pulled for the Bulldogs.
By just betting the 1H (rarely do teams ever pull their starters before the 3rd quarter), we can eliminate that garbage time. I just don't think it's asking much for Georgia to be up by at least 20 at the half against this South Carolina team.
The Gamecocks were extremely fortunate to win on the road last week against East Carolina. They only put up 20 points and 331 yards on the Pirates. They got no shot against this Bulldogs defense, which I firmly believe is the best defensive team in the entire country.
The other big thing here is that with this being Georgia's conference opener and conference home opener, it's a lot less likely they look past the Gamecocks.
Last year a less talented Georgia team beat South Carolina 45-16 on the road and outgained the Gamecocks 471 to 273 (led 28-10 at half...I think that's worst case here). Bet the Bulldogs -18 (1st Half) on Saturday!
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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Reds +161
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Pittsburgh Steelers -6
This is such a bad spot for the Oakland Raiders. They are coming off a massive overtime win on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens. It was a monumental win for their franchise as it was the first time fans were allowed inside their new Allegiant Stadium, and the place was rocking. Now the Raiders have to travel on the road on a short week for an early 1:00 EST start time, which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game. This reminds me a lot of last year when the Raiders had just played the Chiefs to the wire the previous week, then went on the road and laid an egg in an early start time game in a 43-6 loss to the Falcons. The Steelers have an elite defense and that showed last week in a 23-16 win at Buffalo as 6.5-point dogs. Their offense will only get sharper as the season goes on, and they take a step down in class here against this Raiders defense compared to that Buffalo defense. The Raiders also came out of that game against the Ravens with a ton of injuries. Give me the Steelers.
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1* Free Sharp Play on Mariners -109
The Mariners (-109) are worth a look as a slim road favorite against the Royals in Friday's MLB action. Pretty good price here to back Seattle at with Chris Flexen on the mound. Flexen is 11-6 with a 3.73 ERA and has a strong 1.257 WHIP. I trust him a lot more than I do KC's Brady Flexen, who is 4-10 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in 25 starts. Seattle should be laying a much bigger number here. Play the Mariners -109!
Friday card has the Top Level College Football Platinum Supreme totals Play and a Powerful MLB Card led by our Friday night Hot side and 2 big Totals. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play for Friday is on the Under 7.5 runs in the Philadelphia at NY. Mets game at 7:30 eastern. Philly has Wheeler going and he has allowed 3 run in 13 innings this year pitching at Citi against hid former team. He opposes Mets righty T. Walker who has allowed 2 runs in 9 innings here against the Phillies here this year. The Mets have stayed under 11 of 14 on Fridays, 8 of 11 as a dog and 8 of 9 vs a pitcher with a 1.15 or less Whip. The Phillies are 5 of 7 under vs teams under .500 and 5 of the last 6 here have played under the total. Look for this one to stay under. On Friday The Friday night Hot Side with a 16-0 system headlines the MLB Card with 2 big Power totals. In College we have our Top level Platinum Supreme total. Jump on now as we get the weekend started fast. For the MLB Comp play. Play the Mets and Phillies Under the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #162 Memphis Tigers over Mississippi State Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, September 18 ESPN2) This line is an overaction to the Bulldogs win last week against NC State. The Wolfpack did not show up for that game, especially on offense and were shell-shocked for the entire 60 minutes after the Bulldogs ran back the opening kick for a touchdown. Their offense struggled to move the football and will be a much different setting today at the Liberty Bowl with no cow bells. Memphis can score points and I am not sure if the Bulldogs can keep pace with them. Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis is 17-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 home games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. Sign-up now and let 50 years of handicapping experience work for you.
The Jays are off a relatively low-scoring series agianst the Rays. Tonight's opener against the Twins figures to be more offensive. Ryu's last start saw 21 runs scored, an 11-10 final. He'd personally give up seven of those runs, while pitching only 2 2/3 innings. Ten of his past 14 starts have finished with a minimum of nine combined runs and seven of those reached double-digits. Meanwhile, Pineda has seen four of his past five starts hit double-digits. Pineda's last three starts vs. the Jays have produced 11, 13 and 12 runs. Consider the Over.
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R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Friday 9-17-21
OVER 9 Arizona/Houston (Bumgarner/Bielak) Listed
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#125/126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 62 Points – Nebraska vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This total opened 60 and has been bet up to 62. Our power numbers have this total at 65 so still a full FG worth of value on the Over. The Sooners have already scored 116 points in just 2 games this year so their offense is humming to say the least. That’s nothing new at OU as they’ve finished in the top 7 nationally in scoring each of the last 6 seasons and never averaged below 40 PPG in any of those years. The Nebraska defense won’t slow this team down. The Huskers have looked very good defensively the last 2 weeks, however those games were vs an FCS team and vs a Buffalo team that as many key players as any team in college FB and they are undergoing a completely revamped offense with a new coaching staff. Let’s not forget in their season opener the Huskers allowed 30 points to an Illinois team that lost their starting QB in the first quarter of that game. Oklahoma’s defense was supposed to be improved this year however in their 1 game vs an FBS opponent this year, Tulane put up 35 points on the Sooners. OU had 40 in that game but it could have been much worse. They didn’t punt in the game. 2 interceptions thrown by QB Rattler, a shut out on downs, and a missed FG were the only possessions they did not score. Last week they scored on every possession except 1. The Husker offense has been decent scoring 106 points in their 3 games this season. QB Martinez has looked much better this year completing 62% of this passes with no interceptions. He’s always a threat with his legs as well (256 yards rushing this year already) which makes it tough on the defense. Both teams love to play fast paced so we should see a lot of offensive snaps in this game. The weather looks perfect in Norman with nice temps and light winds. Okie is always a threat to get 50+ by themselves. Nebraska will have to score to keep up in this game. Frost knows if they are conservative they may get roasted here. 60 point totals are no big deal in OU games. In fact, they have reached at least 60 total points in 31 of their last 40 games. This is an OVER play.
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Free NCAAF WINNER: Alabama Crimson Tide.
12:30 pm pst.
Folks just like me, I’m gonna keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet. LOL Let’s put aside the fact that Alabama is the No. 1 team in the nation. Let’s also put aside the fact that Florida head coach, Dan Mullen is 0-10 in his career against ‘Bama top-dog, Nick Saban. Let’s even further put aside the fact that the Gators have some well-documented quarterback issues as starter, Emory Jones, who’s been less than stellar AHEM…264 YP, 2 TD’s, 4 INT’s …is starting here this Saturday.
Those were the bones, now I give you the meat guys. This is the first SEC matchup for Alabama and they love, and I mean I mean love… like a fat guy loves a buffet…they love to make an example of their early SEC opponents and make a statement to the rest of the conference. Florida is no match on either side if the ball here. This game gets ugly folks. Here’s a few ATS stats for you. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS their last eight conference games, 4-1 ATS their last five road games, and 5-2 ATS their last seven games vs. the Gators. Take Alabama here. Thank you.
I know the betting public will be all over the Rams here as well. Let's be honest here though exactly what do you like about the Colts here besides this being a smelly line? The Colts were completely owned last week against the Seahawks and the deep ball hurt them. Wentz didn't show anything to deserve to being back here. I know the Rams defense against the run wasn't great but I think Stafford and company their big play ability that was put on display Sunday night will be the difference here and they cover this short number.
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[1%] Free Play on Reds over 8
Taking MICHIGAN STATE as your FREE PICK here on Saturday. Would have been nice to grab the opening number of 8, but I am happy here. How many people are thinking to themselves - All Miami has to do is win by a touchdown, easy money! Man. Have you seen the Canes play? I like Miami. I have a Howard Schnellenberger signed mini-helmet behind my desk! But this team should not be favored. This for me is a fade of Miami and play on Sparty. Coach has the guys buying in. Bad year last season, well that experience is paying off now. Already a win under their belt at Northwestern. Miami was just a 8pt fave over Appalachian State last week. And I had them! Not sure who these guys think they are, but I can't lay points the way they look right now. 4* Money Maker MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Chip's NCAAF Power Play Winner
Chip Chirimbes, Las Vegas Hilton Champion and 'Big Game Player' and Handicapping Award winner congratulates all that took advantage with his NCAAF Power Play winner Louisiana-Lafayette (-20) 49-14 over Ohio. Tonight, Chip has another Power Play winner in the Big Ten between Maryland and Illinois. Get Chip's Top-Rated 'Guaranteed' NCAAF Best Bet winner only $39!
Chip's FREE MLB Winner
Seattle at Kansas City 8:10 ET
Royals over Mariners- Seattle has had a much better year than most expected will send Chris Flexen (11-6, 3.73 ERA) to the hill and have lost two straight and dropped their last three series. Kansas City will send Brady Singer (4-10, 4.85) to the mound has been inconsistent and is coming off a poor performance against the Twins and should bounce back here. The Mariners are just 1-5 in their last six against right-handed starters and 2-5 in their last seven meetings against the Royals. KC is 5-2 in their last seven games as underdogs. Take KANSAS CITY!
A huge series with playoff implications will take place this weekend at Busch Stadium as the San Diego Padres will travel to town to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Padres are 14th in batting average (.242), 21st in homeruns per game (1.14), and 10th in runs per game (4.61), BUT the Birds come into this one winners of their last 5 and 7 of their last 8 and have a .241 team BA. Vince Velasquez (3-6, 5.95 ERA, 85 K's, takes on Miles Mikolas (0-2, 5.47 ERA, 18 K's). My key for this one is Paul Goldschmidt. He's hitting .343/.427/.696 with eight home runs in the last 30 days, and he knows the Padres all to well. (.300/.416/.524 slash line vs. SD)
Give me the small number on the home team tonight. They're on a roll and we just don't know if Velasquez is useful anymore after being dumped by Phili.
Play on the Cardinals ML
Good Luck, Razor Ray
TGIF 5* FREE MLB ML Play
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The free play takes place on Saturday morning in England.
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Zach Plesac and the Indians are mediocre. But mediocre may be good enough to beat the Yankees right now. At this huge plus price, I'll toss a peanut on Cleveland. The Yankees are finding creative ways to lose, something they've done in 13 of their last 19 games. They failed to score during their last eight innings against the Orioles - yes the Orioles - and ended up losing, 3-2, in 10 innings on Thursday. Now the Yankees turn to Corey Kluber to stop the pain. Make no mistake, though, this is not the Kluber of Cy Young vintage of 2014 and 2017. He has a 4.02 ERA and is working his way back into shape after being out three months with a strained right shoulder. This will be his fourth start since going on the Injured List. He has an 8.49 ERA during his first three starts since returning. Plesac is 6-2 with a 4.60 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break. He's been one of the luckier pitchers in the league with a 10-5 record as the Indians usually hit well for him. Plesac held the Brewers to two earned runs in six innings during his last start this past Saturday.
FREE PICK - Ole Miss Rebels -14
This is one line that didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Ole Miss at a minimum should be a 17.5-point favorite in this game. Success has followed Lane Kiffin ever since his 3-year stint with the Crimson Tide. He instantly turned FAU into a power in C-USA (were coming off 3 straight 3-win seasons and won 11 games in his first year on the job).
He took over Ole Miss last year in the midst of a pandemic and went 5-5 with a 9-game SEC schedule and a matchup with Indiana in a bowl (won 26-20). Their 4-5 record in conference play was the best in 5 years.
They got just about everyone back (16 returning starters), including star quarterback Matt Corral. The offense wasn't the problem last year. They averaged 39.2 ppg and scored 48 against Alabama. It was the defense that held them back.
They really thought they would be better on that side of the ball in 2021. So far, it looks to be the case. That defense played extremely well in their 43-24 win against Louisville. They really dominated until they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half (Rebels led 29-3 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter). I don't think there's any doubt its improved.
Not only do I think people are sleeping on just how good this Ole Miss team is, but I think people see that Tulane only lost 35-40 at Oklahoma and just assume they will be able to keep it within 2 TD's. What they don't look at is how that game played out. The Sooners led 37-14 at the half and went on to score just 3-points in the 2nd half. Ole Miss is scoring at will against this defense.
I'm also not so sure that the Rebels aren't better than Oklahoma. I definitely don't think there's as big a gap between them as this line indicates. The Sooners were a 31-point home favorite, which is basically saying Ole Miss would be around a 17-point dog on a neutral site to Oklahoma.
I think the only way the Rebels don't win by 20 is if they don't show up to play. With a bye week on deck, there's no reason for them to not be 100% focused on getting this win. Keep in mind the fact that Tulane rallied to make it close vs Oklahoma will help keep Ole Miss from overlooking them. Give me the Rebels -14!
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Free Pick Wolverhampton -115 vs Brentford @ 7:30 AM ET - As long time followers know I play a lot of underdogs and totals in soccer. However, this is a great price on a small favorite in my opinion. Wolverhampton is at home and though Brentford is ahead of them in the standings they are a newly promoted club that has been helped by the schedule. Conversely, Wolverhampton had quite a tough schedule before an easier match last week and, indeed, they took care of business in that one. I look for the Wolves to build off that victory with another win as the host in this one as Brentford continues to struggle to score goals. The hosts are better than their record would indicate. Free Pick WOLVERHAMPTON -115
Florida State suffered what maybe its most embarrassing loss in its history last week to FCS opponent Jacksonville State on a late score. The Seminoles previous to that were 97-0 SU as a favorite of 27 or more points dating back to 1976. FSU HC Norvell has no excuses, and if he does not have his team perform optimally this week, he's probably a goner. The Seminoles are 23-5 SU in this series and Im betting they come out with a chip on their shoulders and come out of this with a cover.
Florida State coach Mike Norvell described his team as "sick to their stomach" after losing to FCS Jacksonville State, and vowed his players wont quit on their season after loss to FCS side.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 50-18 ATS L/29 seasons for a 74/% conversion rate.
Play on Florida State to cover
Free Total Annihilator On Padres vs Cardinals over 8½ -110
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Lost in the Patriots narrow loss to the Dolphins in a low-scoring home-opener last week was the fact that rookie QB Mac Jones was just fine in his first career NFL start. Jones took care of the football and made all the plays that were asked of him against a challenging opponent in the Miami Dolphins. Here, Jones takes a step down in class against the Jets, who boast one of the league's weakest pass defenses that certainly doesn't get any better after losing a key cog in FS LaMarcus Joyner to injury last week. That wasn't the only key injury suffered by the Jets last Sunday. They'll also have to make do without one of their best players in LT Mekhi Becton. An already weak offensive line gets exponentially worse without Becton. As usual, injuries on the offensive line don't warrant nearly the headlines as those to skill position players. Often, they're equally if not more important, however, and I believe that's the case with Becton. Look for the Pats to make life difficult on rookie QB Zach Wilson who comes off an absolute beatdown at the hands of the Panthers last Sunday. Wilson will make a few splash plays downfield while running for his life in this one, but it won't be enough to keep the Jets competitive. Take New England.