5* NO BRAINER on Santa Clara -10½

Santa Clara is the vastly superior team in this matchup and they have the numbers to prove it.
The Broncos enter this game with a massive advantage in offensive efficiency and perimeter shooting.

Pacific is currently one of the worst defensive teams in the WCC.
They rank near the bottom of the country in effective field goal percentage defense.

The Tigers struggle to contest shots at the rim and they are even worse at defending the three-point line.
Santa Clara has multiple shooters who can exploit these constant gaps in the perimeter defense.

Pacific also has a major problem with ball security.
They are turning the ball over at a high rate which is a recipe for disaster against a fast Santa Clara squad.

The Broncos love to get out in transition and turn steals into easy buckets.
Santa Clara ranks in the top tier of the conference in pace and offensive tempo.

Pacific does not have the depth or the athleticism to keep up with that track meet for forty minutes.
The Tigers' offense often goes cold for long stretches due to poor shot selection and stagnant ball movement.

They rely too much on isolation plays that lead to contested jumpers.
Santa Clara’s defense is disciplined and excels at forcing opponents into those low-percentage looks.

The Broncos are also much stronger on the glass.
They should dominate the offensive rebounding battle and earn plenty of second-chance points tonight.

This spread is too low considering how poorly Pacific has played on the road this season.
Santa Clara is focused on conference tournament positioning and will not take their foot off the gas.

Expect a blowout as the Broncos' depth eventually wears down a thin Tigers rotation.
The double-digit number looks big but the actual talent gap is even wider.

I like the Santa Clara -10.5 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Hofstra -4½

Hofstra is the much better team in this CAA matchup and the line does not reflect the actual talent gap.
The Pride bring one of the most efficient offenses in the conference to the floor tonight.

They rank near the top of the league in effective field goal percentage and they rarely beat themselves.
William & Mary simply does not have the defensive teeth to stop Hofstra's motion offense.

The Tribe struggle to close out on shooters and they give up way too many clean looks from deep.
Hofstra thrives on the three-point line and should have a field day against this sagging defense.

The Pride also hold a massive edge when it comes to taking care of the basketball.
They rank high nationally in turnover percentage while the Tribe constantly cough the ball up.

Those extra possessions are going to be the difference-maker in a tournament setting.
William & Mary is playing their second game in as many days and that fatigue will show early.

The Tribe looked gassed in the closing minutes of their last game and now they face a rested squad.
Hofstra has the depth to keep the tempo high and force the Tribe into mistakes.

The Pride won both regular-season meetings by double digits and match up perfectly here.
William & Mary lacks the interior size to punish Hofstra on the glass, which is their only real weakness.

This spread is cheap for a team with Hofstra's scoring ceiling and veteran guard play.
Expect the Pride to control the pace from the tip and pull away comfortably in the second half.

I like the Hofstra -4.5 (-110)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Fairfield +3

Fairfield is the better team in this matchup and getting three points makes them a steal.

The Stags have a major edge in shooting efficiency and rank near the top of the MAAC in effective field goal percentage.

Siena lacks the perimeter defense to stop Fairfield's guards from getting clean looks from deep.

The Saints have struggled to close out on shooters all season and often leave the corners exposed.

Siena’s offensive rating is one of the lowest in the conference over the last month of play.

They struggle mightily with ball security and turn it over on nearly 20% of their possessions.

Fairfield’s defense thrives on these mistakes and creates quick points in transition.

The Stags are also much more reliable at the free-throw line when games get tight in the final minutes.

Fairfield has been a gold mine for bettors lately and has covered the spread in five of their last six games as a road underdog.

Siena has been a nightmare for the public and is just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games overall.

The Saints are currently overvalued because of their home-court name recognition.

Fairfield is playing with much more confidence and features a deeper rotation off the bench.

The Stags have also won three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two programs.

I expect Fairfield to control the tempo and they have a very good chance to win this game outright.

Take the points with the more consistent team in this late-season conference battle.

I like the Fairfield +3.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Troy State -4½

Troy State is the clear side in this matchup because they dominate the glass and control the pace at home. This is a nightmare scenario for a Southern Miss team that cannot stop opponents from getting second-chance points.

The Trojans rank near the top of the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. They thrive on physicality and will punish the Golden Eagles in the paint for forty minutes.

Southern Miss has been a mess on the road throughout the season. Their offensive efficiency drops off a cliff when they leave their home floor and have to deal with a hostile crowd.

The Golden Eagles struggle significantly with ball security. They face a Troy State defense that ranks high in steal percentage and loves to pressure the ball.

Troy State forces turnovers at a high rate and turns those mistakes into easy transition layups. That is how they build leads and break the spirit of visiting teams.

The Trojans also hold a massive edge in effective field goal percentage defense. They contest every shot and make it nearly impossible for opponents to find a perimeter rhythm.

Southern Miss relies way too much on individual playmaking and difficult mid-range jumpers. Against a disciplined Troy State system, that approach leads to forced shots and long rebounds.

The Trojans have been a covering machine as a home favorite lately. They know how to put teams away and they do not take their foot off the gas in the second half.

The depth of this Troy State roster is the final factor. They go deep into their bench and will not get tired in a game played at this high tempo.

Southern Miss simply does not have the rotations to keep up once the starters need a breather. Expect the Trojans to pull away for a comfortable win.

I like the Troy State -4.5 (-115)

1* Free Pick on NC-Wilmington -7

UNCW is peaking at the right time and enters this matchup with massive momentum. They have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.

The Seahawks’ defense is the main reason for this success. They specialize in forcing turnovers and turning them into easy transition points.

Campbell struggles mightily against high-pressure ball screens. The Fighting Camels turn the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions against top-tier defensive units.

UNCW beat Campbell by double digits earlier this season. That game proved that the Camels simply do not have the athletes to match up on the perimeter.

The Seahawks also rank near the top of the conference in free-throw rate. They stay aggressive and get to the line when their outside shots aren't falling.

Campbell relies too heavily on the three-point shot to stay competitive. If those shots aren't falling early, they have no secondary way to score against UNCW's length.

UNCW is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by five or more points. They are experts at pulling away late and covering these mid-range numbers.

The Seahawks' bench is much deeper and more productive than Campbell's rotation. That depth will be the deciding factor in the final ten minutes of the second half.

Expect UNCW to dictate the tempo and force Campbell into a style of play they aren't comfortable with. The Seahawks should win this one going away.

I like the NC-Wilmington -7.

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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa +6½

Iowa has absolutely dominated this series lately.
The Hawkeyes have won the last four meetings and eight of the last ten matchups against Nebraska.
That includes a 57-52 win over the Huskers back on February 17 where Iowa completely shut down the perimeter.

Nebraska is ranked #9 in the country but they are stumbling into the regular season finale.
They just got waxed by 20 points against UCLA on Tuesday night and looked lost on the offensive end.
The Huskers are struggling to find consistent scoring when Pryce Sandfort isn't hitting from deep.
In that first meeting with Iowa, Nebraska shot an abysmal 20.8% from three-point range.

Iowa's defense is the biggest reason they stay in these games.
They rank 12th nationally in points allowed and they don't give up easy looks in transition.
The Hawkeyes just went toe-to-toe with #3 Michigan on Thursday night and only lost by three points.
Bennett Stirtz is playing at an elite level right now and he has the size to frustrate Nebraska's backcourt.

Nebraska is tough at home with an 18-2 record but this spread is giving them too much credit.
Iowa has the psychological edge in this rivalry and the defensive scheme to keep this within a possession or two.
The Hawkeyes have covered the spread in four of their last five road games against teams with a winning home record.
Expect another dogfight in Lincoln where the underdog has a legitimate chance to win the game outright.

I like the Iowa +6.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Marshall -3½

Marshall brings a massive offensive advantage into this Sun Belt matchup that the oddsmakers aren't fully respectng. The Thundering Herd play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and force opponents into a style of play they can't handle.

Georgia Southern struggles significantly when they are forced to play fast. The Eagles prefer a slow, grinding pace, but Marshall’s pressure defense will take them out of their comfort zone early.

The shooting efficiency gap here is the biggest factor on the board. Marshall ranks much higher in effective field goal percentage and they consistently find high-quality looks in transition.

Georgia Southern’s defense is vulnerable on the perimeter. They allow too many open three-pointers, and this Marshall roster is loaded with shooters who can exploit those gaps.

Turnovers will be the undoing of the Eagles in this spot. They give the ball away on over 18% of their possessions, which plays right into Marshall's hands.

The Thundering Herd are elite at turning steals into immediate points at the other end. Expect a few big runs from Marshall that Georgia Southern simply won't have the firepower to answer.

Marshall also has a clear edge at the free-throw line. They get to the stripe often and convert at a high rate, which is vital for covering short spreads in March.

Georgia Southern has struggled as an underdog all season. They are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games when getting points.

The Eagles' bench depth is a major concern in a tournament setting. Marshall plays a deeper rotation and will have the fresher legs in the second half.

Marshall is 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings against the Eagles. They know how to exploit this specific matchup and the coaching edge sits firmly with the Herd.

I like the Marshall -3.5 (-115)

5* NO BRAINER on Pelicans -8½

The Pelicans are in a prime spot to run the Wizards off the floor tonight.
Washington comes into this game with one of the worst defensive ratings in the league.

They struggle to protect the paint and that is a massive problem against this New Orleans frontcourt.
The Pelicans rank near the top of the NBA in points in the paint and second-chance scoring.

New Orleans is also coming off two days of rest since their home win on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Wizards are playing their fourth game in six nights on this road trip.

Fatigue is going to be a major factor for a young Washington team that already lacks defensive discipline.
The Pelicans have been dominant at home recently, covering the spread in five of their last six at the Smoothie King Center.

Their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) at home is nearly 4% higher than it is on the road.
New Orleans also holds a massive advantage on the glass.

They are a top-five rebounding team while Washington sits in the bottom third of the league in rebounding rate.
Extra possessions will kill the Wizards if they cannot limit the Pelicans to one shot.

Washington’s perimeter defense is just as leaky as their interior.
They allow a high volume of wide-open looks from deep and rank 27th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Pelicans have the shooters to capitalize and turn this into a blowout early.
Expect New Orleans to push the pace and exploit Washington’s poor transition defense.

The Wizards struggle to get back and set their defense after turnovers or long rebounds.
This line feels low given the massive gap in motivation and talent between these two rosters.

New Orleans is fighting for a top-four seed while the Wizards are just playing out the schedule.
The Pelicans have the size and depth to overwhelm this roster for 48 minutes.

I like the Pelicans -8.5 (-115)