Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-05-24 | Bethune-Cookman v. Texas Tech -28.5 | Top | 61-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5 Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year. I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been. He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year. Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12. "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous." Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year). F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year. But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico. They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low. Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC. Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here. The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG). They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions. This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders. Bet Texas Tech Tuesday. |
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11-04-24 | Blazers +2.5 v. Pelicans | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going. They are just 2-5 SU but 4-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road. They have already played the Pelicans twice and outscored them 230-206 in the two meetings. It will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight. The Pelicans are in even worse shape now than they were in those first two meetings. The injuries are really piling up for this team. They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy. They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury. We saw what the Pelicans were without all these guys last night when they lost 126-111 as 1-point home dogs to the short-handed Atlanta Hawks, who are almost as banged up as they are currently. The Pelicans will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, so they will have nothing left in the tank for Portland tonight. Bet the Blazers Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Hornets +10 v. Wolves | 93-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10 The Charlotte Hornets are at least an average NBA team when they are healthy, and that is pretty much the case right now. They just got Brandon Miller back from injury, and as long as they have LaMelo Ball healthy they are at least an average team. Ball is showing what he is capable of when healthy averaging 30.2 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. He is shooting 47.4% from the floor and 40.5% from 3-point range on 74 attempts. He is one of the most underrated superstars in the league because he plays in Charlotte. I just haven't been impressed with the Timberwolves this season as they clearly miss Karl-Anthony Towns. They are 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS with their lone cover coming by a single point in a 117-115 win at Sacramento as 1-point favorites, which was a Kings team on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They beat Toronto by 11 as 14.5-point home favorites and Denver by 3 as 3.5-point home favorites. They also lost by 10 at San Antonio as 4-point favorites, lost by 6 at home to the Mavericks as 4-point favorites and lost by 7 at the Lakers as 1-point dogs. As you can see, the Timberwolves haven't blown anyone out yet, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet the Hornets Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Knicks v. Rockets OVER 217.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Rockets OVER 217.5 This is a very low total for an NBA game this season. It's only low because both teams are playing slow compared to the rest, but I trust both do be efficient offensively tonight. The Rockets want to play fast and should pick up the pace moving forward. The Knicks have gone for 128, 116 and 123 points in three of their last four games. We've seen at least 216 combined points in all five games involving the Knicks this season, including 221 or more four times. They are an elite offensive team this season with the additions of Towns and Bridges. The Rockets are loaded offensively this season as well. They are coming off a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points. I think that's a sign of things to come for the Rockets. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Jazz v. Bulls OVER 228 | Top | 135-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Bulls OVER 228 The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan. In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season. Now the Bulls play another team that likes to play fast and plays no defense in the Utah Jazz. The Jazz rank 7th in pace this season and 22nd in defensive rating. The Jazz are allowing 118.5 points per game this season. The Bulls are allowing 116.8 points per game. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236, 243 and 244 combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Florida -10 v. South Florida | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
15* CBB Opening Night BLOWOUT on Florida -10 The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden. He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season. This is a fringe Top 25 team. The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG). They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG). They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense. But as much as I like the Florida Gators this season, this is more of a fade of South Florida than anything. Their program is in turmoil not only because they lose their top three scorers to the transfer portal from a team that surprisingly went 25-8 last season, but they also lost their star head coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim from complications due to an illness just a couple weeks ago. I question how much these players even want to play this season without him. The Bulls lost Chris Younglood (15.3 PPG, 41.6% 3-pointers), Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG, 39% 3-pointers) and Kasean Pryor (13.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) who were the three biggest reasons for their success last year. The lone returning starters are Kobe Knox (8.4 PPG) and Brendon Stroud (5.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG). I think it's going to start very badly for USF this season with a blowout loss to the Gators. Bet Florida Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Kings v. Heat | Top | 111-110 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat PK The Miami Heat are loaded this season and fully healthy right now. They get two sharp shooters in Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson back from injury tonight, and they should be at full strength for basically the first time all season. I'm just not a big fan of this Sacramento Kings team because they don't play defense, while the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Kings are coming off a 131-128 loss as 9.5-point favorites at Toronto, which is a short-handed Raptors team. Their only three wins this season came against the depleted Hawks, the depleted Jazz and the Blazers, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Heat are 3-2 this season with their only losses coming to the Magic in their opener back when Orlando was healthy and the Knicks, who are one of the best teams in the East. The Heat have handled the teams they are supposed to, and they are extremely fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 5th game in 12 days. The Heat are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings with the Kings. Bet the Heat Monday. |
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11-04-24 | Florida Atlantic v. Indiana State UNDER 153 | 97-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
15* CBB Opening Night Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Indiana State UNDER 153 Both FAU and Indiana State were decimated by the transfer portal and graduation this offseason. They both also have new head coaches, and I expect both to really struggle offensively in the season opener as a result. After leading FAU to 60 wins the past two seasons, head coach Dustin May is off to Michigan. Baylor assistant John Jakus is tasked with rebuilding a team that only returns one player from last year's team in Tre Carroll (4.0 PPG). Gone are Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG), Nick Boyd (9.3 PPG) and Brandon Weatherspoon (7.2 PPG). Indiana State went 32-7 last season riding an offense that was one of the best in the country. But head coach Josh Schertz parlayed that success into a new gig at St. Louis. Gone are all five starters that led to his success in Avila (17.4 PPG), Conwell (16.6 PPG), Swope (15.9 PPG), Kent (13.5 PPG) and Larry (11.0 PPG). Top assistant Matthew Graves inherits a roster that returns just three scholarship players who combined for a grand total of 92 points last season. Both teams will be lost offensively in the season opener, so look for points to be very hard to come by tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-02-24 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Suns OVER 224 The Phoenix Suns are playing faster and shooting more 3's this season under Mike Budenholzer. They are starting to gel and have some of the best talent in the entire NBA to run his system. The Suns are coming off a 125-119 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers for 244 combined points. The Blazers are coming off a 137-114 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 251 combined points. This total of 224 is too low for this matchup tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Celtics v. Hornets +11 | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +11 The Charlotte Hornets will be the more motivated team tonight out for revenge from a 124-109 home loss to the Boston Celtics as 10.5-point underdogs last night. Now the Hornets come back as even higher 11-point dogs in the rematch, and this number is too high given the motivational edge for Charlotte in this quick revenge spot. Boston's starters will be more taxed than Charlotte's for this rematch. Tatum, Brown and White all played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night. Nobody played more than 31 minutes for the Hornets. Plus, there's a chance Brandon Miller returns from injury tonight being listed as day-to-day after sitting last night. This will only be the 3rd game in 7 days for the Hornets, while it will be the 7th game in 12 days for the Celtics. The spot really favors the double-digit home underdog tonight. Bet the Hornets Saturday. |
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11-01-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 218.5 | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 218.5 This will be a rematch from the Western Conference semifinals last season. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams could not be more familiar with one another. These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league again this season. The Nuggets currently rank 25th in pace while the Timberwolves rank 24th. And the Timberwolves took a big hit offensively when they lost Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in the offseason. Points have been very hard to come by in this series. The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 209 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. It will be more of the same tonight as these two know each other inside and out. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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10-31-24 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 221.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5 The Clippers hired Jeff Van Gundy to run their defense in the offseason. They are a dead nuts UNDER team playing some of the best defense in the entire NBA, plus the fact that their offense is in shambles without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is hurt and they let George go to the 76ers. The UNDER would be 4-0 in all Clippers games this season if not for an OT game. They have gone for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all four games. That one OT game was against these same Phoenix Suns in their season opener. That game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight. The Suns are playing much better defense this season under head coach Mike Budenholzer. The UNDER would be 3-1 in all Phoenix games if not for OT, and they have seen 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in three of their four games. The Clippers rank 3rd in defensive rating while the Suns rank 6th thus far. The Clippers rank 22nd in pace while the Suns rank 19th, so neither are playing fast. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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10-31-24 | Rockets +6 v. Mavs | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +6 The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They brought back pretty much everyone from a team that went on an 11-game winning streak last March to make a run at the playoffs. They added some good pieces, and I like head coach Ime Udoka. The spot is really good for the Rockets tonight as well. They come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. They play a Dallas Mavericks team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Jazz by 8 at home and the Timberwolves by 6 on the road. The Mavericks have been far from impressive this season beating the Jazz by 8 and the Spurs by 11 at home, and losing by 12 to the Suns on the road. They are getting too much respect for their upset win at Minnesota last time out. It's clearly a bad matchup for the Timberwolves after losing in five games to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last year. The Rockets played the Mavericks tough last year despite going 1-3 SU. They won by 26 at home and two of their three losses came by 6 points in regulation and another in OT. Houston is a very live underdog tonight given the big rest advantage. Bet the Rockets Thursday. |
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10-30-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 221 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 221 I was on the under 217.5 last night between the Pelicans and Warriors, and I'll certainly take it again at an even better number of 221 tonight. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and with this being the 2nd meeting in 2 days these teams are obviously familiar with one another. A big reason I was on the under last night was because the Warriors were without their top two scorers in Curry and Wiggins, while the Hawks were without one of their best scorers in Dejounte Murray. There's a good chance all three will be out again tonight. After just 98 combined points at halftime last night, these teams exploded by 132 combined points in the 2H and it was a pretty tough beat. The Pelicans shot 53% as a team, while the Warriors shot an unsustainable 21-of-46 (46%) from 3-point range. I think both teams are due some big-time shooting regression in the rematch tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-30-24 | Spurs v. Thunder -12 | Top | 93-105 | Push | 0 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -12 The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and neck-and-neck with the Boston Celtics as the best teams in the NBA. The three wins came by 15 at Denver, by 19 at Chicago and by 24 at home over Atlanta. Now the Thunder have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to put on a show on ESPN tonight. They get to host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS this season with their lone win coming over the Rockets by 3 at home in the 2nd of a back-to-back for Houston. They lost by 11 at Dallas, and then lost tot he Rockets by 5 at home in the rematch. This will be far and away their toughest test of the season, and they will be without two key players in Vassell and Jones tonight. The Thunder own the Spurs going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Each of their last five wins have come by 12 points or more. These games haven't even been close, and this one won't be either. Bet the Thunder Wednesday. |
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10-30-24 | Knicks v. Heat +2 | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2 The Miami Heat are close to full strength right now and have great chemistry with basically their entire team back from last season. They are playing with a sense of urgency early in the season because they are tired of having to make the playoffs through the play-in. This looks like one of the best teams in the East on paper, and I like the switch to more 3's and more looks at the rim instead of mid-range jumpers from this team in the early going. The New York Knicks are already banged up and short-handed, which cost them in the playoffs last season. Jalen Brunson is already beat up, Josh Hart is questionable with a leg injury, and they are without two key bench pieces in Achiuwa and Robinson. They are trying to implement Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges into the offense, and it's a work in progress in the early going. Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series between Miami and New York. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Heat Wednesday. |
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10-30-24 | Pistons +4.5 v. 76ers | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +4.5 The Detroit Pistons are 0-4 SU this season and highly motivated for their first win of the season. They have been very close to winning against some very good teams despite that record, and I expect them to get over the hump tonight against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers. The Pistons lost by 6 to the Pacers, by 12 to the Cavs, by 6 to the Celtics and by 8 to the Heat. They took all those teams to the wire and all four are expected to be shoe-ins to make the playoffs this season. They are very healthy right now to boot. The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who are without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Paul George. This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA without those two, and it is showing. There's not much to like outside Tyrese Maxey, who has a lot on his shoulders trying to carry this team without their other two stars. The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS including an upset loss to the lowly Toronto Raptors. They also lost by 15 to the Bucks at home and pulled the surprising upset over the Pacers last time out, which has them overvalued now. Bet the Pistons Wednesday. |
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10-29-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 217.5 | 106-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 217.5 Injuries to the Golden State Warriors are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight. They will be without their two best scorers in Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. They are going to have to rely on defense led by Draymond Green to try and be competitive until they get these guys back because they are going to be lost offensively without Curry and Wiggins. The Pelicans spent a lot to get Dejounte Murray (22.5 PPG last season) from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason. Well, Murray suffered fractured hand in their opener and they will now be without him for 4-6 weeks. In their two games without Murray since, the Pelicans struggled offensively scoring just 105 and 103 points in two meetings with the Portland Trail Blazers, who aren't exactly a top-notch defensive squad. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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10-29-24 | Nuggets v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 144-139 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +5.5 The Denver Nuggets are the most overrated team in the NBA this season. They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic in the offseason and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA. They are top-heavy with Jokic, Gordon and Murray and it is showing. Indeed, the Nuggets are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season. They lost outright 102-87 as 2-point home favorites to the Thunder, lost outright 109-104 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Clippers and needed a 14-point comeback to beat the lowly Toronto Raptors 127-125 (OT) as 8.5-point road favorites. That's a Toronto team missing several of their best players and is currently likely the worst team in the NBA. They also lost Scottie Barnes during the game. But now the short-handed Nuggets will have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back off that OT win last night. Jokic played 43 minutes, Gordon 42, Murray 39, Porter Jr. 39 and Braun 39. They only had three players play any significant minutes off the bench, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight. I've been impressed with the start by the Brooklyn Nets, who look to be a sleeper in the early going. They Nets only lost by 4 at Atlanta as 7-point dogs and upset Milwaukee by 13 as 8.5-point home dogs in their lone home game. They also lost by 15 to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Orlando Magic on the road. Given the tough spot for the Nuggets, I think the Nets can hang tonight and will likely win this game outright. Bet the Nets Tuesday. |
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10-28-24 | Lakers v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5 I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 123-116 road loss to the Lakers on October 25th. They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now host the Lakers just three days later. The Suns were impressive in their home opener beating the Mavericks 114-102 despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Mavericks were rested. They were also without Bradley Beal, who could return to face the Lakers tonight. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers after opening 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three narrow wins all by 7 points or less. All three wins were at home, and now they have to hit the road for the first time this season. They are 'fat and happy' right now and won't be all that motivated to try and beat the Suns for a 2nd time this season. Bet the Suns Monday. |
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10-28-24 | Rockets -2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5 I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from their 109-106 loss in San Antonio on Saturday, October 26th. They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now face the Spurs again two days later. The Spurs had a huge rest advantage in that first meeting as they had the previous day off, while the Rockets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Grizzlies at home on Friday. Now there is no rest advantage for the Spurs, and I expect them to get blasted by the Rockets, who are far and away the superior team this season. The Rockets are pretty much fully healthy while the Spurs are without Devin Vassell and could be without backup PG Tre Jones, who is important in spelling the aging Chris Paul. Bet the Rockets Monday. |
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10-28-24 | Pacers v. Magic -6 | 115-119 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -6 The Orlando Magic are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season. They brought back pretty much everyone from their team that took the Cavaliers to 7 games in the opening round of the playoffs. They also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets, and he is one of the best 3-and-D players in the league, and Denver clearly misses him. But this is a play against the Pacers as much as anything. This is a brutal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-114 (OT) loss at home to the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers last night who were without Embiid and George. Haliburton played 37 minutes, Siakam 40, and Turner 37 minutes for the Pacers last night. They won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss this season at Memphis on Saturday. The Magic are going to have a huge advantage in the paint because the Pacers have no depth behind Turner after losing C James Wiseman to injury in the opener. They are getting killed on the boards and the Magic thrive rebounding the ball with all their size. Bet the Magic Monday. |
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10-27-24 | Pelicans v. Blazers +6.5 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 105-103 home loss to the Pelicans on Friday, and they don't have to wait long to get it as they host the Pelicans here Sunday in a rematch. Brandon Ingram hit the game-winner with only seconds remaining. But there is a lot on his shoulders right now because the Pelicans just lost Dejounte Murray for 4-6 weeks to a fractured hand suffered in their opener. They are short-handed right now and that's why they struggled with the Blazers in their first game without him. They will struggle again here tonight. The Blazers have a really good trio of starters Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton. I also like Scoot Henderson off the bench, and rookie Donovan Clingan is only going to continue to get more comfortable in the NBA with each passing game. Simons and Grant combined for 58 points in that first matchup, and I expect them to shoulder the load in the rematch here. I'll gladly back the more motivated team catching 6.5 points at home here. Bet the Blazers Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 220 | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER 220 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Blazers and Pelicans. The Pelicans won 105-103 on a game-winner by Brandon Ingram on Friday night. It will be another low-scoring game in the rematch tonight. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 214 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings, including the 208 they combined for on Friday. The Pelicans being without Dejounte Murray makes them more of an UNDER team because he is a scorer and they will miss him considering how much they were relying on him coming into this season. Trey Murphy is also out after averaging 14.8 points per game and 38% 3-point shooting last season, and they will miss his shooting. The Blazers are going to have to rely more on defense this season to be competitive because they are lacking scorers outside of Grant and Simons. They were held to 104 points by the Warriors and 103 by the Pelicans in their first two games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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10-26-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Suns | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 This is a brutal spot for the Phoenix Suns. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. After needing OT to beat the short-handed Clippers in Los Angeles, they blew a 15-point 1st quarter lead to the Lakers and lost 123-116 last night. They clearly wore down in the 2H, and they won't have much left in the tank for the rested Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Suns can't handle these back-to-back situations as well as most teams because they have one of the worst benches in the NBA. Durant played 38 minutes, Beal 35 and Booker 35 last night. These back-to-back situations are especially taxing on their Big 3. The Mavericks brought back almost everyone from their team that made the NBA Finals last year. They also added Klay Thompson on free-agency, and Thompson made a splash going 6-of-10 from 3-point range in their 120-109 win over the Spurs on Thursday in their opener. They have one of the best benches in the NBA and will certainly have a big advantage when the Suns turn to their bench in this one. The Mavericks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, which includes a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS record in their last four trips to Phoenix. With such a big rest advantage here, the Mavericks are favored for good reason on the road and should win this game by 3-plus points to cover this 2.5-point spread. Bet the Mavericks Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | 106-109 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2 The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year. The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs. Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch. They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams. They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season. I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets. The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets. I came back on them last night in their 128-108 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies as they predictably shot much better. I'm back on the Rockets again tonight because after making easy work of the Grizzlies, they will still have plenty of energy left for the Spurs tonight. The Rockets are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these back-to-back situations better than most this season. The Spurs are coming off a 120-109 road loss to the Mavericks in their opener. I just don't love this team playing Chris Paul so many minutes. It also hurts that they are without Paul's backup in PG Tre Jones, and arguably their best scorer in Devin Vassell is out as well. There's just not a lot to like about this team right now aside from Victor Wembanyama, who the Rockets will focus on stopping. The Rockets have owned the Spurs going 5-1 SU in the last six meetings with their lone loss coming in overtime. Four of the five wins came by double-digits. Bet the Rockets Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5 This is a brutal spot for the Charlotte Hornets. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city. I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for the Miami Heat tonight. The Hornets pulled the 110-105 upset win in their opener on Wednesday before falling short 125-120 in Atlanta last night. So they used max effort in both games, and they lost one of their best players in Brandon Miller to injury, and he remains out tonight. The Heat will be highly motivated for a victory after losing 116-97 at home to the Orlando Magic in the opener. They have had the last two days off to practice and get things right heading into this one. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 2-of-13 shooting and 12 points in that loss to the Magic, and they will be much sharper tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Hornets. The Heat owned the Hornets last season winning all four meetings. They should make easy work of this tired Charlotte team with a huge rest advantage tonight. Bet the Heat Saturday. |
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10-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -2 | 108-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -2 The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year. The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs. Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch. They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams. They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season. I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets. But now this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets as only 2-point home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets. They are due some positive shooting regression. The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz. Memphis is missing four key players right now in Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, Vince Williams and GG Jackson. I don't think they have the horses to take down the Rockets on the road, especially without Jackson Jr. Bet the Rockets Friday. |
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10-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 221.5 | 108-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 221.5 The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year. The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs. Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch. They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams. They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season both ATS and on OVER bets. I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets. But the Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets. They are due some positive shooting regression, and this total is lower than it should be because of that poor shooting performance in their opener. The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz with 250 combined points. Memphis is missing its best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Grizzlies are going to be an OVER team until he returns to lead their defense. They have plenty of offense without him and are an OVER team as long as Ja Morant is on the floor and running this offense. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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10-25-24 | Bulls +9.5 v. Bucks | 133-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5 I think the Chicago Bulls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. Billy Donovan has embraced playing faster and shooting more 3's in the preseason, and getting rid of DeMar DeRozan will allow them to play more team basketball now. Coby White, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are all back and healthy this season. They traded for Josh Giddey of the Thunder and added Jalen Smith from the Pacers. This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Bulls after losing 123-111 at New Orleans as 5-point underdogs in their opener. The Bulls shot just 10-of-34 (29%) from 3-point range and are due some positive shooting regression. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks, who took advantage of the 76ers being without their two best players in Embiid and George and won 124-109 as 4-point favorites in their opener. The Bucks shot 54% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression, plus they take a big step up in class here against the Bulls. The Bulls went 3-1 ATS in their four meetings with the Bucks last season with three of the four decided by 9 points or less, including two that went to OT. Bet the Bulls Friday. |
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10-24-24 | Thunder +2.5 v. Nuggets | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +2.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the West this season. They earned the No. 1 seed last year. They traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein, though he will miss a month to injury. Getting Caruso in their for Josh Giddey is an instant upgrade. While I'm very high on the Thunder this season, I'm pretty low on the Denver Nuggets. They just don't have much to like outside Jokic, Murray, Gordon and Porter Jr. They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic, and he's one of the best 3-and-D guards in the league. The Nuggets acquired the No. 22 overall pick DaRon Holmes II from the Phoenix Suns on draft night, but he has since torn his Achilles. They had to sign Dario Saric to be Jokic's backup, and that's a problem. They also signed Russell Westbrook, and we know how much of a cancer he can be off the bench. The Nuggets' lack of quality depth is a big problem this season. The Thunder went 3-0 SU in their final three meetings with the Nuggets last season including a pair of upset wins in Denver. I fully expect them to win their opener outright as well. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
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10-24-24 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 231.5 | Top | 122-102 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 231.5 The Boston Celtics showed what kind of team they are going to be this season in their opener against the New York Knicks. They are going to shoot even more 3's this season and embrace it, just as many other NBA teams are expected to do. This is quickly becoming an 'OVER' league as a result. Nobody shoots the 3-pointer better than the Celtics, and that was on display in their 132-109 home win over the Knicks in the opener that saw 241 combined points. They tied an NBA record with 29 made 3's on a whopping 61 attempts. They missed their last 13 attempts trying to break the record. Only 41 points were scored in the 4th quarter and it still finished with 241 combined. Now the Celtics face the Washington Wizards, who are coming off the worst record in team history at 15-67. A big reason for their struggles is the fact that they were the worst defensive team in the NBA, and it's not going to get much better this season. They are still led by two one-way players in Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma who don't play defense. They will implement some good young talent this season, but they won't be better defensively. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 254, 234, 262, 233, 241 and 251 combined points. As you can see, all six went over this 231.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-23-24 | Suns -4.5 v. Clippers | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Suns/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -4.5 The Phoenix Suns already had the Big 3 of Durant, Beal and Booker. They just needed the right pieces around them and the right head coach, and I think they had the best hire of the offseason in bringing in Mike Budenholzer, who won a title in 2021 with the Bucks over the Suns. Despite having some of the best shooters on the planet, the Suns shot just 32.6 3-pointers per game last season. The best teams shoot around 40 each night. In five preseason games, the Suns averaged 44 3-point attempts per game. The big addition was Tyus Jones from the Wizards as he can be the point guard to run the offense so the ball doesn't stick in the Big 3's hands. He is a real point guard, Monte Morris is a real backup and Mason Plumlee will do the dirty work off the bench behind Jusuf Nurkic. This now looks like a real contender in the West. As much as I love the Suns, this is more of a play against the Clippers than anything. They traded away Paul George in the offseason, and Kawhi Leonard is hurt to start the season to nobody's surprise. So they are without their two best players from last year. James Harden is way past his prime and will be counted upon to do too much until Leonard is ready to return. Bet the Suns Wednesday. |
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10-23-24 | Hornets v. Rockets -6.5 | 110-105 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5 The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year. The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs. Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch. They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams. They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season. The Charlotte Hornets are relying too much two injury-plagued youngsters in LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams. Ball will be healthy to start the season, but Williams is already out. I like parts of Brandon Miller's game, but there's just not much to like about this team as a whole. They have yet another new head coach in Charles Lee, and it's going to take some time for this team to gel. They aren't on the Rockets' level on opening night, and this one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
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10-23-24 | Pacers -4.5 v. Pistons | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -4.5 The Indiana Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals last season. They didn't lose any starters or key reserves in the offseason, and they are going to have a lot of chemistry early in the season as a result. I look to back teams with chemistry early. The Detroit Pistons will be lacking chemistry. They made two of the worst moves of the offseason paying Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway who will both play significant minutes for them. There is promise with Cunningham, Ivey and Duren as their young nucleus, but there's not much else to like about this team. The Pistons are going through another coaching change hiring JB Bickerstaff, who was fired by the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think he is one of the worst coaches in the NBA, and I don't expect him to get the most out of this team, especially early in the season. The Pacers went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings with the Pistons last season winning by 23, 19, 14 and 8 points. This number is too short in the opener. Bet the Pacers Wednesday. |
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10-22-24 | Wolves -110 v. Lakers | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota ML -110 The Minnesota Timberwolves are a real contender in the West this season after making the Western Conference Finals last year. I like their chemistry with first-year head coach Chris Finch, and they have the best player on the floor in Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves lose Karl-Anthony Towns, but I think the two pieces they got in a trade more than make up for it. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo come over in the trade. Now the Timberwolves don't have to worry about playing Towns and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert at the same time, which was an issue at times last year. The Lakers are going through yet another coaching change bringing in JJ Redick. They struck out on Dan Hurley, and Redick was their second choice, which is already a negative. I think Darvin Ham got thrown under the bus. LeBron James is past his prime, and the Lakers wasted a draft pick on Bronny James, who was one of the worst players in the NBA in the preseason. They just don't have a lot of reliable scorers outside James and Anthony Davis, which has been a problem for them since they teamed up. The Lakers are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in NBA season openers in the LeBron James era. I trust the Timberwolves to be more ready for the opener than the Lakers in this one. Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Tuesday. |
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10-22-24 | Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics | 109-132 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on New York +5.5 The New York Knicks are the perfect regular season team. They show up every night, and they will be hungry after injuries decimated their team in the playoffs in a Game 7 loss to the Pacers. They are pretty much fully healthy and motivated to begin 2024-25. I love the move to bring in Karl-Anthony Towns, who played under Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota. He adds instant scoring a 3-point shooting as the Knicks are already good enough defensively. They also brought in another former Villanova player in Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets to team him with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. The Knicks took off after trading for OG Anunoby last year, and he's healthy after getting injured in the playoffs. You would be hard-pressed to find a better starting 5 in the entire NBA than Brunson, Hart, Towns, Bridges and Anunoby. The Celtics finally got over the hump and won their title last year. I have no doubt their will be a championship hangover early in the season for the Celtics, and they won't be nearly as motivated early. They are also without Kristaps Porzingis to start the season after he averaged 20.1 points per game in his 57 games last year. The Knicks want to make a statement in Game 1, and I think we get a big effort from them and a lackluster effort from the Celtics after receiving their championship rings. It will certainly be good enough to cover 5.5 and likely win outright tonight. Bet the Knicks Tuesday. |
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06-17-24 | Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5 The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money now after everyone counted them out down 3-0. They responded with their best effort of the playoffs in a 122-84 home win over the Boston Celtics in Game 4. The Celtics made the mistake of giving them life, and now will struggle to close out this series. The pressure is squarely on Boston with all the failures they have had in trying to win a title with this current group of players. I think that pressure will get to them in Game 5, and the Mavericks care-free approach will continue with another big effort and likely and outright win. The Mavericks managed to win by 38 in Game 4 despite Doncic and Irving combining to go 1-of-14 from 3-point range. Those two are due some positive shooting regression. But the role players came to life finally and now many of those guys will have a lot of confidence going into Game 5 tonight. Boston is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games when revenging a road loss. Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season. The toughest game if the close out game, and Boston is really feeling the pressure now of trying to win a title. Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Monday. |
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06-14-24 | Celtics -105 v. Mavs | 84-122 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Mavericks ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston ML -105 The Dallas Mavericks had their last-ditch effort to make this a series come up short. They nearly erased a 21-point deficit to the Celtics in Game 3 getting it down to 1 point. But Luka Doncic fouled out, and they couldn't close the deal as the Celtics made the big plays down the stretch to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. I question Dallas' mental state coming into this one. Doncic and Irving combined for 62 points in Game 3 and it still wasn't enough. That's because the Mavericks are getting nothing from their role players in this series. If they couldn't get it in Game 3, they aren't going to get it in Game 4 either. There's just too much on Doncic and Irving's shoulders and they can't handle it. Of course, the Celtics are showing why they are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are making life difficult on Irving and Doncic, and they are taking away the corner 3-pointers from PJ Washington and company that have been huge in the Mavericks getting this far. They have held the Mavericks below 100 points in all three games in this series. The Celtics are so close they can taste it, and they won't let this opportunity to sweep by by the wayside. Bet the Celtics on the Money Line Friday. |
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06-12-24 | Celtics v. Mavs -121 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -121 | 70 h 47 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Mavs ABC No-Brainer on Dallas ML -121 After dropping the first two games of this series in Boston, this is a must-win game for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 if they want to get back in this series. I think they will play much better when they return home for Game 3 tonight, while the Celtics may relax a little with a commanding 2-0 lead. Luka Doncic showed up in Boston but hasn't gotten any help. All players for the Mavericks other than Doncic are 5-of-32 (15.6%) combined from 3-point range in this series. Role players always play much better at home in the friendly confines, and I expect that to be the case for the Mavericks in Game 3. Kyrie Irving was basically a no-show in the first two games in Boston. He will have his best game of the series by far in Game 3 where he will be much more comfortable. It has been hostile for Irving in Boston since stomping on the logo and he hasn't handled it well. But he will handle playing in front of supporting fans much better in Dallas. Kristaps Porzingis looked to reaggravate his calf injury in Game 2 and was noticeably limping. Not having him at 100% the rest of the way would be a big blow to the Celtics as he has been a weapon the Mavericks haven't had an answer for. I also don't expect Boston to get so many easy looks at the rim like they have in the first two games. This Dallas defense has been the reason they have made it this far, and it will show up in a big way in Game 3. Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Wednesday. |
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06-09-24 | Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show |
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +7.5 The Dallas Mavericks failed to show up in Game 1. They shot 41.7% from the field, 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and 12-of-19 (63.2%) from the FT line. Nothing went right for them offensively. I think with two days off in between games to adjust, we get a much better effort from the Mavericks in Game 2 in Boston. The Celtics shot 47.6% from the field and 16-of-42 (38.1%) from 3 and really put Game 1 away early thanks to a hot start from Kristaps Porzingis. Things came very easily for the Celtics in Game 1, but they won't come nearly as easy in Game 2. And we've seen the Celtics upset in a pair of Game 2's thus far in these playoffs losing to the Heat outright by 10 as 14-point favorites and to the Cavaliers outright by 24 as 13-point favorites. They tend to relax after taking Game 1. Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games after scoring 100 points or less. Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Sunday. |
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06-06-24 | Mavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 43 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5 The Dallas Mavericks have been through the gauntlet beating the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to get here while being the road team in all three series. They have been a different team since trading for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford as they have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Indeed, the Mavericks are 28-9 SU & 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games overall. I like the fact that they got some rest but not too much rest to the point that they would be rusty by dispatching of the Timberwolves in five games. I worry about the rust factor for the Celtics, who have been off for the last nine days since sweeping the Pacers. The Celtics were very fortunate to get an easy route to the playoffs due to injuries to opposing teams. Jimmy Butler was out for the Heat along with a couple others. Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were out for the Cavaliers. And Tyrese Haliburton got hurt in Game 2 and didn't play in Games 3 and 4. Plus, the Pacers arguably should have been up 3-1 as they blew late leads in three of the games in losses by 3, 3 and 5 points. This big step up in class for the Celtics will come as a shock to the system. The Mavericks will offer a lot more resistance than those three banged-up teams did. The Celtics will get back Kristaps Porzingis for this series, but I imagine they will be cautious with him in Game 1. The Mavericks should dominate the boards in this series as their bigs offer much more of a presence than Porzingis and Horford will for the Celtics. Dallas is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. The Mavericks are 12-3 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Dallas is 34-16 ATS in all road games this season. Bet the Mavericks in Game 1 Thursday. |
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05-30-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 124-103 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -4.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression and some positive regression in close games. The Mavericks out shot them in the first three games of the series drastically and they were still all 50/50 games in the final three minutes. Dallas won all of them. Minnesota has life now after a 105-100 victory in Game 4 as they shot 52.7% while Dallas shot just 42%. I love some of the adjustments they made by trailing Luka Doncic and not letting him have a bunch of step backs, which is his game. They funneled him to the rim and he looked a lot more uncomfortable in Game 4. I think the Timberwolves have a legitimate shot to come back and win this series, and I'm expecting a blowout victory in their favor in Game 5 at home. Dereck Lively II is questionable to play tonight after sitting Game 4. He is their best rebounder and rim defender, and the Timberwolves were able to get to the rim at will without him. Even if he plays he won't be 100%. Bet the Timberwolves Thursday. |
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05-28-24 | Wolves +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +1.5 To say the Dallas Mavericks are due some negative shooting regression would be a massive understatement. They shot 49.4% in Game 1, 48.8% in Game 2 and 55.9% in Game 3 including 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range. I don't think Doncic and Irving can keep up this pace in Game 4 tonight. To say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression would also be an understatement. They shot 42.7% from the field in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2 and just 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range in Game 3. And despite losing the shooting battle in all three games, the Timberwolves had a great chance to win all three in the final 3 minutes. The Mavericks just lost Dereck Lively II to a neck injury in Game 3 and he is doubtful to play tonight. The Timberwolves really attacked the rim when he wasn't on the court and will have plenty of success doing just that tonight. Lively II along with Gafford are the reason the Mavericks have been so dominant on the interior defensively. Losing their leading rebounder in Lively II is a sneaky injury that isn't being factored in enough with all of the dirty work he does for this team. Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a home win. The Timberwolves are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road in these playoffs. This series isn't over just yet. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Tuesday. |
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05-27-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +8.5 | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5 The Indiana Pacers should be up 2-1 on the Boston Celtics in this series. This is a much more evenly matched series than these lines have suggested, and they should not be catching 8.5 points in Game 4 tonight. The Pacers' biggest strength is their depth, and with only one day of rest in between every game so far that works in their favor the longer this series goes. The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis and now Luke Kornet is out, giving them zero rim protection inside. The Pacers took advantage in Game 3 and got to the rim at will, and they will get to the rim at will again in Game 4. The Pacers only shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 in Game 3 and still only lost by 3. They are due some positive shooting regression in that department as well. The Pacers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games with their lone loss coming in 3 points in Game 4. They have a tremendous home-court advantage. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Monday. |
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05-26-24 | Wolves +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -112 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves shot 42.7% while the Dallas Mavericks shot 49.4% in Game 1 with the Mavericks winning 108-105. The Timberwolves shot 41.2% while the Mavericks shot 48.8% in Game 2 with Dallas winning 109-108. As you can see, the two games were decided by a combined 4 points. It's safe to say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression in this series, while it will be hard for the Mavericks to keep up this pace against the best defensive team in the league. I think we get that positive regression in Game 3 for the Timberwolves. Minnesota has actually played its best basketball on the road in these playoffs. Indeed, the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road in the postseason. They beat the Suns by 17 and 6, and they beat the Nuggets by 7, 26 and 8 points in their five road victories. Minnesota has been a resilient team all season and will respond in Game 3 tonight. The Timberwolves are 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
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05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5 The Indiana Pacers may not have Tyrese Haliburton tonight. But teams tend to rally in that first game without their star player, and I expect the Pacers to do just that tonight. TJ McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the NBA with not only his ability to run the offense, but also his ability to defend. He has been a monster in these playoffs. The Pacers are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA which is their biggest strength, so the loss of Haliburton won't hurt them as much as it would most teams. And this Indiana team has been dynamite at home in these playoffs with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA. Indeed, the Pacers are a perfect 11-0 SU in their last 11 home games including 6-0 in these playoffs. They will feed off their home crowd tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the 'clunker' game for the Celtics, who have one in every series. They could let up knowing they likely won't have to face Haliburton and with a 2-0 lead in this series. Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Saturday. |
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05-24-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 20 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off their biggest win in franchise history by coming back from 20 points down in the 2H to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 7. It was not a good spot for them in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. The Timberwolves looked flat and tired in Game 1. I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2 with a blowout victory. Head coach Chris Finch will make the proper adjustments to slow down Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, who combined for 63 points in Game 1. The Mavericks just don't have many players that can beat the Timberwolves outside Irving and Doncic. So expect the Timberwolves to put more focus on these two and to have a lot more success defensively. After all, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their ability to protect the rim and their length on the perimeter. Anthony Edwards in particular looked gassed in Game 1. He will respond in a big way in Game 2. The Mavericks don't have an answer for him defensively. He will be in full on attack mode. The Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after shooting just 42.7% in Game 1 including 61.1% from the FT line. The Mavericks shot 49.4% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression. Minnesota is 11-2 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games when revenging a loss as a home favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Minnesota is a resilient bunch that will respond in a big way tonight. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Friday. |
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05-23-24 | Pacers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +9 The Indiana Pacers committed 21 turnovers and made 15 fewer free throws than the Boston Celtics and still should have beaten them in Game 1. This series is clearly a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest. The Celtics got fortunate to catch the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and and a few others and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen and a few others. They had an easy path to get here and are overvalued as a result. The Celtics lost Game 2 outright at home to the Heat as 14.5-point favorites and Game 2 outright at home to the Cavaliers as 13-point favorites. They tend to relax in these Game 2's at home, and have actually been better in the playoffs on the road than at home over the last couple seasons. They don't have the kind of home-court advantage that these lines suggest. The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are healthy. They won Game 6 116-103 at home over the Knicks and shot 53.8% as a team. They won Game 7 130-109 as 2.5-point road dogs and shot 67.1% as a team. They should have beaten the Celtics in their 133-128 Game 1 loss as 10-point dogs and shot 53.5% as a team. The Pacers are an offensive juggernaut and have improved defensively in these playoffs. They are also the deeper team, which makes it easier for them to handle this short turnaround than the Celtics. Holiday played 48 minutes, Tatum 45, Brown 44, White 42 and Horford 40 in Game 1. This is where not having Kristaps Porzingis really hurts them, especially with the Pacers attacking both Horford and Kornet with a ton of success. I like how both Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton took responsibility for the Game 1 loss. That will endear them to the rest of the players on this team, and I expect them to fire back with another big effort in Game 2 to try and even this series. Each of the last three meetings between the Celtics and Pacers were decided by 5 points or fewer this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Thursday. |
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05-22-24 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 206.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 206.5 Defense is the No. 1 reason both the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the NBA all season, and the Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since trading for Gafford and Washington. The Timberwolves allow nothing at the rim with Gobert, Reid and Towns, and they have elite length on the perimeter in Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker. They match up very well with the Mavericks as their length on the perimeter will give Doncic and Irving troubles. The Mavericks allow nothing at the rim with Gafford and Lively protecting the paint. This has made life much easier on them because Doncic and Irving are defensive liabilities. But the Mavericks can hide these two on Conley and McDaniels most likely. The Timberwolves just held the Nuggets to an average of 80 points per game in winning each of their last two games in this series. The Mavericks held the Thunder to 101 points or fewer in three of their final four games. Both teams will struggle to get to 100 in Game 1 tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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05-21-24 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 221.5 | Top | 128-133 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pacers/Celtics OVER 221.5 Let's compare this total to the totals in the five regular season meetings between the Celtics and Pacers. The totals were set at 234 in Game 1, 245.5 in Game 2, 249.5 in Game 3, 247 in Game 4 and 246 in Game 5. Now this total is 221.5 for Game 1 of this playoff series. That fact alone shows there is value with the OVER. The Pacers and Celtics combined for 253, 266, 219, 234 and 259 points in their five meetings this season. They have averaged 246.2 combined points per game in their five meetings this season, which is roughly 25 points more than this 221.5-point total. The Celtics have had the luxury of facing two banged up teams in the Cavaliers and Heat who were missing their best players and multiple players. Now they have to take on a healthy Pacers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating. The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in offensive rating, and this is going to be a shootout type of series because of it, especially in Game 1. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday. |
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05-19-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 199.5 | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries. This has been a very low-scoring series thus far with 209 or fewer combined points in five of the six games, including 186 in Game 2 and 185 in Game 6. This despite one team shooting at least 50% from the floor in every game outside of Game 6. I don't see either team shooting 50% in this winner-take-all contest. Jamaal Murray suffered an elbow injury in Game 5 and shot 4-of-18 from the field. He won't be 100% by Sunday. Mike Conley Jr. is battling an achilles injury for the Timberwolves, and Anthony Edwards suffered a back injury in Game 6. Both teams are pretty beat up right now, and that's another reason I don't expect either to have much success offensively. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday. |
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05-19-24 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 209 | 130-109 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Knicks ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 209 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries. The New York Knicks are in a world of hurt offensively right now. They already lost OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury earlier this series, and now Josh Hart suffered a strained abdomen in Game 6. Both are highly questionable to play tonight, and if either or both go it will affect them more on offense than it does on defense. The Knicks know their best strategy is to slow down the tempo and try and grind one out with all their injuries. They will control the tempo playing at home, and it will be played at a snail's pace, which tends to be the case for all Game 7's. Indiana is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 road playoff games when attempting to close out a series. New York is 9-1 UNDER when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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05-18-24 | Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 210.5 | Top | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 40 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 210.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between two of the best defenses in these playoffs. The UNDER is 4-1 in the first five games in this series with 206, 196 and 196 combined points in the last three meetings. The Mavericks have surrounded Doncic and Irving with elite defenders like Gafford, Lively, Washington and Jones Jr. That has been the key to their success in the 2nd half of the season. The Thunder haven't topped 101 points in any of the last three games and are getting little help outside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder have been dynamite in these playoffs defensively allowing 96 or fewer points in six of their nine playoff games. They have allowed 105 points or fewer in eight of those nine. I don't see either team topping 105 points in Game 6. Dallas is 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday. |
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05-16-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | Top | 70-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -2 We are getting the Minnesota Timberwolves at a discount tonight after losing the last three games of this series. This has been the most resilient team in the NBA this season as that was actually the first time they have lost three consecutive games all season. I trust their resolve here to get the job done in Game 6 at home and force a Game 7. Mike Conley Jr. was a surprise scratch in Game 5 with an Achilles injury. I think they played it cautious knowing their season wasn't on the line and that they would have a Game 6 at home. Conley was present a shootaround today. He makes all the difference for this team and takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards Jr. They need him to run the offense, space the floor and his elite defense on the other end. The Nuggets can't keep up this torrid shooting against the best defense in the NBA in the Timberwolves. They shot 53.7% in Game 3, 57% in Game 4 and 55% in Game 5. That includes a combined 36-of-77 (46.8%) from 3-point range in those three wins. They are due some negative shooting regression to say the least. Denver is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off three or more consecutive wins. Minnesota is 46-28 ATS in its last 74 games when revenging a loss. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 6 Thursday. |
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05-15-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder showed they weren't too young and inexperienced for the moment in Game 4. Trailing 2-1 in the series and down double-digits in the 2H, the Thunder easily could have folded. Instead they fought back and won 100-96 to tie the series at 2-2 to regain home-court advantage. That type of win is going to give the Thunder a ton of confidence moving forward, especially the way they did it. They did it with defense mostly holding the Mavericks to 96 points. They won the game despite shooting 38% from the field and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the team on his back down the stretch. I can guarantee you the Thunder will shoot much better as a team in Game 5 at home. Expect much better production from role players, and for Shai to do his thing. Their defense will be there as well, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for Game 5 with these fans excited about this team and their potential to win a title. I love how they play as a team and the entire team took the postgame interview in Game 4. You can tell they just love playing for each other. Luke Doncic is not 100% and he and Kyrie Irving both had poor games in Game 4 combining for just 27 points. No team in the NBA defends Doncic and Irving as well as the Thunder, and the Mavericks just don't have the role players to beat them. PJ Washington has done his part but it's unlikely he tops 20 points for a 4th consecutive game. Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer. Oklahoma City is 36-9 SU & 29-16 ATS at home this season. Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday. |
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05-14-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 29 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5 Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS and I fully expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to go on the road and pull the outright upset over the Nuggets tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance. The Nuggets got a 3-day break to regroup following losing the first two games of this series at home. That break was huge, and they made some adjustments plus shot the lights out the last two games. They aren't going to keep shooting it this well, and the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression. The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the field and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3 in Game 3 and 57% and 13-of-29 (44.8%) from 3 in Game 4. Aaron Gordon shot 11-of-12 from the field in Game 4 while three bench players in Braun, Holiday and Jackson combined for make 6-of-9 from 3. None of those players are going to shoot it as well again in Game 5. Everyone outside of Anthony Edwards played pretty poorly in Game 4. I expect him to be dominant again and to also get some help. His teammates shot a combined 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in Game 4. Expect more from Towns and Alexander-Walker in particular in Game 5. Minnesota is 11-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves have been very resilient and I think they are ready for this moment in this critical game with the series tied at 2-2. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday. |
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05-13-24 | Thunder +2 v. Mavs | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2 The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy and highly motivated for a victory after losing their first two games of these playoffs. They will make some good adjustments tonight to play Holmgren and Williams together more that will help them protect the rim and rebound. Josh Giddey's minutes will be restricted, and Isaiah Joe will likely get more minutes which is their optimal lineup. Luka Doncic is clearly nursing a knee injury and seems to get hurt in every game. He is far from 100%. Without him at 100%, the Mavericks aren't better than the Thunder. PJ Washington has been dynamite from 3 the last two games and that's not going to last either. I fully expect the Thunder to take Game 4 tonight and even this series. Oklahoma City is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Monday. |
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05-12-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -2 Anthony Edwards admitted he and his teammates did not show up for the fight in Game 3. He guaranteed they will be ready for Game 4, and I believe him. The Timberwolves will regain control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 4. The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the floor in Game 3 and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range. The Timberwolves shot 43.7% from the floor and 10-of-33 (30.3%) from 3. Denver is due some negative shooting regression, while Minnesota is due some positive shooting regression. Give the Nuggets credit for showing championship metal in Game 3 when they easily could have folded. But they are dealing with injuries to Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson. Minnesota is fully healthy and the better team when that's the case. The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. They have been a very resilient team in this spot. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Sunday. |
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05-12-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 41 h 46 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana -5.5 The New York Knicks are running out of gas. They played their starters big minutes all season and even bigger minutes in the playoffs. They paid the price with the injury to OG Anunoby that kept him out in Game 3 and likely will keep him out in Game 4 as well. Jalen Brunson is playing through injury, and the Knicks are forced to give guys like McBride and Burks minutes off the bench that they probably do not deserve. Give the Knicks credit for fighting hard in Game 3 and only losing by 5 in a valiant effort. But now this is a very tough turnaround for the Knicks with only one day off in between games and having to play an early Sunday afternoon game. The Pacers are the fresher team with one of the deepest benches in the league, so this situation really favors them. Plus, the Knicks lost by 5 despite shooting 14-of-27 (51.9%) from 3-point range in Game 3. DiVencenzo shot 7-of-11 himself. They aren't going to shoot that well again, and as a result it should be a blowout in the Pacers' favor. If you have watched every game of this series like I have, you could easily make a case that the Pacers could be up 3-0 in this series instead of down 2-1. They are arguably the better team, and with the situation and injuries in their favor, I anticipate a blowout victory in Game 4 to even this series. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Sunday. |
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05-11-24 | Thunder +3 v. Mavs | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Mavericks ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3 The Dallas Mavericks responded in a big way in Game 2 by pulling the 119-110 upset as 5-point underdogs in Oklahoma City. They had just about everything go right for them in that game, and there's a lot of reasons I believe the Thunder return the favor in Game 3 and regain home-court advantage in this series. The Mavericks shot 18-of-37 (48.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and were still life and death with the Thunder. They got big games from role players in PJ Washington who scored 29 points and made 7-of-11 from 3. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 17 points and a bunch of clutch shots to stop Thunder runs. Those two aren't going to be nearly as good in Game 3. Luka Doncic had a big 1st quarter and finished 5-of-8 from 3 after previously struggling from distance in these playoffs. But he is banged up and far from 100%, and without him at 100% it's a huge blow. Kyrie Irving is struggling to get good shots because the Thunder are defending him very well, and Lu Dort defends Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA. This is a very quick turnaround from Thursday with tip set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon in Dallas. Well, the Thunder are the much deeper team and they are fully healthy and better equipped to handle this short turnaround. Doncic and Irving both played more than 41 minutes Thursday and I think the quick turnaround hurts them because they are not very deep. Doncic and company won't have much left in the tank for this one, and they won't be able to match their Game 3 shooting performance. Oklahoma City is 53-32 ATS in its last 85 games as a road underdog. Plays on any team (OKC) - revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 171-106 (61.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday. |
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05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5 I grabbed the opener at -4.5 on the Pacers as soon as this line came out after Game 2 concluded Wednesday night. I did so with the anticipation that the line would move toward the Pacers considering all the injuries the Knicks are dealing with right now. So hopefully long-term clients grabbed the best line they could find early. This line has ballooned to Pacers 7/-7.5 as of Thursday. It would still be a 25* up to -6, but a 20* at anything higher. I think the Pacers win this game in a blowout and likely cover all numbers given the spot and the injuries to the Knicks. The Knicks were already short-handed without Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic. Now OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and sat out the 4th quarter. Chances are he'll sit out Game 3, too. Anunoby has been the key to their success since the trade and had 28 points in the first three quarters. Jalen Brunson sat out the 2nd quarter with an injured foot, but returned in the 2H to lead the comeback victory from double-digits down in Game 2. He's not 100% and the Knicks could even elect to rest him in Game 3, though that's unlikely. Tom Thibodeu is going to be forced to give McBride, Achiuwa and Burks more minutes than he wants to. I think the Knicks will be satisfied with the fact that they held serve at home by coming up clutch in the final minutes of both Game 1 and Game 2, but also getting a lot of help from the refs. I think the Knicks will have a letdown in Game 3, while we get a max effort from the Pacers knowing they are not out of this series with all the injuries to the Knicks. Plus, they will likely get the benefit of the whistle in Game 3 at home due to all the negative publicity the refs have received for their favoritism of the Knicks in the first two games. The fact of the matter is the Pacers are every bit as good as the Knicks and easily could have won both games in New York. They just didn't execute late and didn't get any help from the refs, either. Their depth is their biggest asset, and that will be on display here in Game 3. There will only be one day in between Games 2 and 3 for the Knicks to recover, and that's not enough given their current injury situation. The Pacers have been picking up full court and playing at a break-neck pace, which will pay dividends for them the longer this series goes with how short-handed the Knicks are. I think the Knicks finally break and get blown out in Game 3. Bet the Pacers Friday. |
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05-09-24 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 211.5 | Top | 118-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 211.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers are without their most important defender in Jarrett Allen. They have had to play a lot more small ball without him, and it has made them a better offensive team but a much worse defensive team. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in Game 2 tonight. The OVER is 3-1 in Cavaliers last four games without Allen with the one under staying under by just 2 points. Game 1 went OVER in this series despite the Cavaliers shooting just 41.1% overall and 11-of-42 (26.2%) from 3-point range. They came into this series tired after their 7-game series with the Magic. They should be fresher and shoot better in Game 2 as a result. The Cavaliers and Celtics have combined for at least 212 points in eight of their last nine meetings with the lone exception being 209. That makes for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 211.5-point total. Boston is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 points. The Celtics are 11-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games this season. Bet the OVER in Game 2 Thursday. |
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05-08-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 218.5 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218.5 There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 2 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season. The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings. The total of 217.5 was too low in Game 1 as these teams combined for 238 points, and the total of 218.5 in Game 2 is too low as well. The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings. The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3. That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 218.5 combined points. The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East. That's important because the OVER is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games overall. In fact, the OVER is 16-2-1 in their last 19 games overall dating back further. They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team. The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it. They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five. The Pacers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 games overall dating back further. They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense. This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana. Bet the OVER in Game 2 Wednesday. |
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05-07-24 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 218 | 95-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
15* Mavericks/Thunder TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218 This is a very low total between the Mavericks and Thunder in Game 1 of this series tonight when you compare this total to the totals from the regular season. The Mavericks and Thunder had totals of 233.5, 235.5 and 238.5 in their three meetings prior to the Mavericks resting all their starters with a total of 226.5 in the regular season finale. The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 221 or more combined points in all eight meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 218-point total. They combined for 246, 257 and 245 points in their three regular season meetings in which both teams were near fully healthy and playing all their starters. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday. |
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05-06-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 216.5 | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216.5 There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 1 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season. The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings. This total has been set at 216.5 for Game 1 of this series. The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 232 or more combined points in five of those six meetings. The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3. That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 216.5 combined points. The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East. That's important because the OVER is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games overall. In fact, the OVER is 15-2-1 in their last 18 games overall dating back further. They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team. The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it. They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five. The Pacers are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall dating back further. They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense. This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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05-05-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 196 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
20* Magic/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 196 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Teams get more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on. Teams know how to defend one another, especially when we get to a Game 7. There is perhaps no better bet in the NBA playoffs than Game 7 UNDERS for this reason. The Magic and Cavaliers haven't combined for more than 207 points in any game in this series. They went for 180 and 182 combined points in their first two games in Cleveland before getting to 207 in Game 5. I think we see a similar result here to those first two games with all that's at stake in this winner-take-all Game 7. Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 playoff games. Orlando is 12-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season. I also like backing UNDERS in these early start games because players aren't used to playing this early, and it's a sleepy 1:00 EST start time. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday. |
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05-04-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
15* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 I think the Minnesota Timberwolves are the better team in this series. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Nuggets last year. But the Timberwolves have taken a big leap forward this season, while the Nuggets aren't as strong as they were last year with the lack of depth they have on the bench. The Timberwolves have one of the best benches in the NBA. The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which gives them a chance. They have great length with Gobert, Towns, McDaniels and Reid to throw at the likes of Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr. Mike Conley Jr. and Anthony Edwards are also great defenders, and Edwards is quickly becoming one of the best players in the NBA today that the Timberwolves know they can lean on in crunch time. These teams split the season series but the Timberwolves outscored them by 22 points in their four meetings. They swept the Suns which is no small feat considering their star power with Durant, Booker and Beal. They are ready for the moment this year, and it starts with a Game 1 upset tonight. Bet the Timberwolves Saturday. |
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05-03-24 | Cavs v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Magic ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando -3.5 The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season. They are 31-11 SU & 29-13 ATS at home this season. I expect them to even this series in Game 6 and win this game by 4-plus points to get us the cover. The Magic won 121-83 at home in Game 3 and 112-89 at home in Game 4 as these two games in Orlando weren't even close. They nearly pulled off the upset in Game 5, only losing 104-103 in Cleveland. It looks like the Magic are the better team in this series right now. That's especially the case now with the Cavaliers missing Jarrett Allen, who sat out Game 5 with injured ribs. He has been their most important player in this series with all he does on defense and on the boards. He must really be injured if he's sitting out a Game 5 of a series that's tied 2-2. Orlando is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Magic are 7-0 ATS in home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season. JB Bickerstaff is 0-7 SU on the road in the playoffs as the coach of the Cavaliers. Bet the Magic in Game 6 Friday. |
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05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 200.5 | 118-115 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/76ers UNDER 200.5 These are two dead nuts UNDER teams. The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in pace, and the 76ers are playing much slower than normal in the playoffs to accommodate Joel Embiid, who is limping up and down the court with an injured knee. The last two games in this series were extremely low-scoring, and it should be more of the same in Game 6 tonight. The Knicks won Game 4 in Philadelphia 97-92 for just 189 combined points. Game 5 was tied 97-97 at the end of regulation for just 194 combined points before going to OT. I don't expect either team to get to 100 tonight. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday. |
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05-02-24 | Knicks +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
20* Knicks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on New York +3.5 The New York Knicks have been a resilient team all season. They are 22-11 ATS off a loss this season and 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a loss. The Philadelphia 76ers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games off an upset win as an underdog. After blowing a 6-point lead in the final 28 seconds, I expect the Knicks to respond in a big way in Game 6 tonight and close out this series. With only one day of rest in between games, it really favors the Knicks. They are the deeper team. The 76ers rely too much on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to get all of their offense. Embiid is hobbled with a torn knee and running out of steam, and you could see it when he committed nine turnovers in Game 5. Fortunately for him, Maxey bailed him out with arguably the best game of his career, scoring 46 points on 17-of-30 shooting including 7-of-12 from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again, and the Knicks will make the proper adjustments to slow him down and make someone else beat them. Plays on any team (New York) - when revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 170-105 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Thursday. |
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05-01-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-93 | Win | 100 | 61 h 33 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -2.5 Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won twice already. The Clippers have one of the worst home-court advantages in the NBA. The Mavericks are simply the better team in this series and that will show in Game 5 tonight. The Clippers were able to steal Game 4 in Dallas thanks to shooting an unsustainable percentage. They shot 53.7% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-29 (62.1%) from 3. Yet they still blew a 31-point lead and were life and death in a 116-111 victory. Shooting regression will work against them in Game 5, and the Mavericks will grab a stranglehold in this series. The Clippers could have made a title run with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, but he sat out Game 4 and is likely out for the rest of this series as his knee just hasn't responded like he was hoping it would. And without Kawhi, the Mavericks are by far the superior team. Even if he decides to play the Clippers have lost both games with him in the lineup. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season. The Clippers are 7-19 ATS off a road win this season. The Mavericks are 19-6 ATS as road favorites this season. Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Wednesday. |
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04-30-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 202 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Cavaliers UNDER 202 This has been a defensive series as both teams are struggling to make outside shots, and both are playing at a snail's pace. The UNDER is 3-1 in this series with 180, 182, 204 and 201 combined points in the four games. Both teams in Cleveland were the very low-scoring games with 180 and 182 combined points. With this series tied 2-2, you know the defensive intensity will be there tonight. The Magic just struggle scoring on the road putting up 83 and 86 points in their two games in Cleveland. I don't expect them to have much offensive success in this one. They shot 55.8% in Game 4 and 51.1% in Game 3 at home, but just 32.6% in Game 1 and 36.2% in Game 2 in Cleveland. Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 playoff games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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04-30-24 | 76ers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -3.5 The New York Knicks are the better team in this series. I cashed the Knicks in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Philadelphia and grabbed a stranglehold on this series. You could tell it sucked the life out of the 76ers, especially since New York fans took over the building. Joel Embiid made excuses and called out Philadelphia fans after the game. You can tell the 76ers are rattled. Now Embiid had a migraine this morning and missed shootaround. It's going to be 1-2-3 Cancun for the 76ers regardless of whether or not he plays tonight. Few teams have a home-court advantage as strong as the Knicks right now. These fans are hungry for playoff success and this is one of their favorite teams ever. You can see why because the chemistry on the Knicks is perfect, and these guys love playing for one another. Jalen Brunson is a star and scored a franchise record 47 points in a playoff game to close out the 76ers in Game 4. Even if Embiid goes, he is not conditioned very well right now and there is only one day in between games. The 76ers just rely on him and Maxey to do everything for them. There's no depth on this team, Buddy Hield isn't even playing, and the 76ers are cooked. I expect a blowout win in favor of the Knicks tonight in Game 5 to close out this series. Bet the Knicks Tuesday. |
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04-29-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5 The Los Angeles Lakers have had a lead for 136 of the 192 minutes played in this series. They have really been the better team for large stretches despite being down 3-1 in this series. The Nuggets gave them life in Game 4 as the Lakers were finally able to close, and now they got that monkey off their back from losing 11 straight to the Nuggets in this head-to-head series. Look for the Lakers to be playing free and loose in Game 5 tonight. Everyone left them for dead down 3-0, but they have a legit shot to get back in this series now. That's especially the case with Jamal Murray questionable with a calf injury suffered late in Game 4. If he doesn't play this line will crash, and I like the Lakers to cover this 7.5-point spread even if he does and is at less than 100%. The Nuggets just don't have the depth they have had in recent seasons. Bet the Lakers Monday. |
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04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Timberwolves/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 212.5 Minnesota controlled the tempo in the first two games of this series at home. They won 120-95 and 105-93. Phoenix got more of their tempo in Game 3 in a 126-109 loss that saw 235 combined points. It will be more of the same in Game 4 today. The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which is why they have had success in this series. But I think they let go of the rope a little here after taking a commanding 3-0 series lead. I expect the best offensive performance of the series for the Suns in Game 4 tonight. But the problem with the Suns is they don't defend and get owned on the board. The Timberwolves have scored 126, 120 and 105 points in the first three games in this series while dominating the board. They will continue to light it up offensively in this one. Bet the OVER in Game 4 Sunday. |
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04-28-24 | Knicks +4.5 v. 76ers | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 45 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/76ers ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5 The New York Knicks are the better, deeper team in this series. They took care of business at home winning the first two games of this series. They had a bit of a letdown in Game 3 while the 76ers wanted it more. I think the Knicks fire back in Game 4 today. The 76ers actually trailed at halftime and had everything go right for them and still struggled to put the Knicks away in Game 3. They shot 54.7% as a team and 15-of-31 (48.4%) from 3. Joel Embiid scored 50 points on only 19 shots. That's not going to happen again. The 76ers made 15 more FT than the Knicks and got the benefit of the whistle, which is also unlikely to happen again. The Knicks are 21-11 ATS off a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS off a road loss. They are a very motivated, resilient bunch and I expect them to fire back in a big way in Game 4, especially after the dirty play Embiid made on Mitchell Robinson in Game 3. Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Sunday. |
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04-27-24 | Nuggets -3 v. Lakers | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Denver -3 The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead team walking. They just lost their 11th consecutive game to the Denver Nuggets in this head-to-head series in a must-win Game 3. That's three blown halftime leads by the Lakers in three games in this series. The Lakers are now completely demoralized and won't show up for Game 4. Darvin Ham is making zero halftime adjustments and the Nuggets are making all the right moves after intermission. Ham is a dead man walking. The Lakers go too much iso ball in the 2H, and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had to play too many minutes because they are getting zero help. They will once again run out of gas in the 2H, especially with only one day in between Games 3 and 4. This series is over. Bet the Nuggets in Game 4 Saturday. |
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04-27-24 | Thunder v. Pelicans +1 | 106-85 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1 The New Orleans Pelicans were knocked out of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in round last year. Now they are down 2-0 in this series after losing the first two games on the road. It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 when they return home today, and I expect them to get the job done with one of their best efforts of the season. I think the 94-92 loss in Game 1 was hard to recover from because they had every chance to win. The Thunder took advantage and crushed the Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2. However, the Thunder shot 59% as a team and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2. They are due some negative shooting regression. The Pelicans are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3 in Game 1, and 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3 in Game 2. Role players usually play much better at home because they are a lot more comfortable. They weren't comfortable in those two road games in a hostile crowd in OKC. The Pelicans were a tired team coming into this series as they were life and death at the end of the season trying to win games to get out of the play-in. Then they had two play-in games. But they have now had two days off in between games for a second consecutive game and this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. That's another reason I think they are primed for a big effort because they are fresh. Bet the Pelicans in Game 3 Saturday. |
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | 89-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
15* Cavaliers/Magic TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Orlando -2 The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They are 30-11 SU & 28-13 ATS at home this season. After shooting terribly in Cleveland the first two games, they shot 51.1% and won 121-83 at home in Game 3. I don't expect it to come as easily for the Magic at home in Game 4, but I do expect them to get another win and cover to even this series. Donovan Mitchell got hobbled yet again in Game 3 and wasn't himself, and even though he will play in Game 4 he isn't anywhere near 100%. The Cavaliers are vulnerable when that's the case. The Cavaliers are 0-6 SU on the road in the playoffs under current head coach JB Bickerstaff. The Magic are 20-7 ATS as home favorites this season. Cleveland is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Magic in Game 4 Saturday. |
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04-26-24 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 223 | Top | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
20* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pacers OVER 223 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, with an elite offense and a suspect defense. This total is too low for a game involving the Pacers, especially since they are playing at home and will control the tempo. The Bucks have not had a problem scoring and won't mind getting up and down with the Pacers. The Bucks have a deep bench and missing Giannis is much more detrimental to them defensively than it is offensively. The Bucks will get their tonight as well. Nine of the last 10 totals between the Pacers and Bucks have been set at 230 or higher. The lone exception was the 223.5-point total in Game 2, which sailed OVER with 233 combined points. The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 233 or more points in 11 of their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 39 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1.5 The Lakers have deserved better than being down 2-0 in this series. This series is much closer than that 2-0 lead for the Nuggets would indicate. I expect their hard work to pay off in Game 3 and for the Lakers to finally end this 10-game losing streak to the Nuggets. The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for three quarters in Game 1 but were outscored 32-18 in the 3Q and lost by 11. The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for 47 minutes in Game 2 but lost 101-99 on a Jamal Murray buzzer-beater. Murray got hot late after they had shut him down up until that point. I just think the Nuggets are more vulnerable than they were last season when they won the title. They have less depth and rely too much on Jokic and Murray. Their role players will struggle on the road here. The Lakers have more depth than last season, and I expect their role players to play much better than they did in Denver. Role players always tend to play better at home. LeBron and AD will continue to get whatever they want as they have really dominated in the first two games. Expect these two to close it out in the 4th finally. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Thursday. |
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04-25-24 | Cavs v. Magic -120 | Top | 83-121 | Win | 100 | 55 h 29 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic ML -120 The Orlando Magic are in a must-win in Game 3 after dropping their first two games in Cleveland. They were identical 5.5-point dogs in both Games 1 and 2, and now they are basically a PK in Game 3. That's not a big enough adjustment for flipping home courts in their advantage in this must-win game. This is a young Magic team that needs home court to feel comfortable. They have dominated at home all season, going 29-11 SU & 27-13 ATS in their 40 games in Orlando. I expect the Cavaliers to relax just enough after handling their business at home to let the Magic have a lot more success in Game 3. Of course, the Magic cannot possibly shoot as poorly as they did in Cleveland either. They shot 32.6% overall and 8-of-37 (21.6%) from 3 in Game 1 and 36.2% overall and 9-of-35 (25.7%) from 3 in Game 2. It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression, and I look for them to get it at home. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Thursday. |
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04-24-24 | Pelicans +8 v. Thunder | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +8 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young team getting their first taste of the playoffs. They played like it in Game 1 being very fortunate to come away with a 94-92 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. I don't expect Game 2 to be a walk in the park for them, either. The Pelicans are a veteran team with playoff experience and know the importance of trying to get one in Oklahoma City. They shot just 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only lost by 2. They dominated on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds, and the Thunder don't have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas in this series. Dominating the board is sustainable, shooting that poorly again is not. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. In fact, the road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 12 meetings with the exception of the 8.5-point spread in Game 1. This 8-point spread in Game 2 is too high as well. Bet the Pelicans Wednesday. |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -122 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Dallas ML -122 The Dallas Mavericks shot 2-of-18 from 3 in the 1H and scored only 8 points total in the 2Q in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers. They still only lost by 12. That was as bad as it could have gone for the Mavericks as Daniel Gafford picked up two early fouls and changed their game plan. Game 2 will go much differently tonight. I believe the Mavericks are the better team and that will show in Game 2 tonight. The Mavericks went 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games to close out the regular season in which they were trying to win games and healthy. They are fully healthy now and trying to win games. The Clippers shot 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That's not going to happen again. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games when revenging a loss as a favorite. Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line in Game 2 Tuesday. |
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04-23-24 | Pacers +1.5 v. Bucks | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5 The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season. This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome. Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1. The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range. I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2. The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2. They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable. He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court. Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season. The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season. Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday. |
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04-22-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 36 h 37 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5 This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series. I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2. They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight. The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1. Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break. They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18. I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around. The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11. That's going to be very hard for them to replicate. I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value. Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday. |
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04-21-24 | Pelicans +8.5 v. Thunder | Top | 92-94 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Pelicans in the play-in round last year to knock them out of the playoffs. The Thunder went on to lose to the Timberwolves in their next play-in game, so they didn't get the full playoff experience. The Pelicans have not forgotten and they want revenge. The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, but none of these players have real playoff experience. I think that will work against them and this young team is extremely vulnerable as a result. They should not be 8.5-point favorites over the battle-tested Pelicans in Game 1 tonight. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. In fact, the road team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 11 meetings, so this 8.5-point spread is unprecedented. It's simply too many points tonight. Bet the Pelicans Sunday. |
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04-20-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 103-114 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7.5 The Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals last year and got swept by the Denver Nuggets. The series was much closer than the 4-game sweep would indicate as the Lakers just couldn't finish games late. Three games were decided by 6 points or fewer. The Lakers then went on to get swept by the Nuggets in the regular season. It's safe to say the Lakers want revenge on the Nuggets, and it starts with Game 1 of this series as inflated 7.5-point dogs. You're paying a tax on the Nuggets now after winning the NBA Finals last year, and I think they will be a great team to fade in these playoffs as a result. The Lakers are finally nearly fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. They went 12-3 SU in their last 15 games just to make the playoffs, including their clutch 110-106 road win at New Orleans in the play-in game. They weren't afraid of the Nuggets by winning that game knowing that would be their matchup. They 'want all that smoke', and I expect LeBron James and company to come up clutch and give the Nuggets a run for their money in this series, starting with Game 1. Bet the Lakers Saturday. |
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04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 219.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 63 h 9 m | Show |
20* Kings/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5 Both play-in games went UNDER the total in the opening night of the playoffs and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception. Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games. The Kings have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter. The Kings have allowed 111 or fewer points in 20 of their last 21 games overall. The Kings have gone for 216 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 16 games overall. They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games. The Pelicans have been a consistently great defensive team all season. They rank 6th in defensive rating this season and 6th since the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have allowed 112 or fewer points in 22 of their last 23 games overall. I don't see either team getting to 110 in this winner-take-all game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5 Both play-in games went UNDER the total last night and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception. Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games. And the Heat and 76ers are two dead nuts UNDER teams as it is. The Heat rank 29th in pace and 5th in adjusted defense. The 76ers rank 18th in pace and 11th in adjusted defense. They are even better defensively with a healthy Joel Embiid in the lineup now. The Heat are even more of an UNDER team without PG Terry Rozier, who is out for this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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04-16-24 | Warriors -135 v. Kings | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State ML -135 The Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been all season. They have been in playoff mode for a month now and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall heading into the play-in. The Sacramento Kings have struggled down the stretch since losing the best 6th man in the NBA in Malik Monk along with Kevin Heurter. These are also two of their best shooters. They just don't have much productive depth, and that has really hurt them. The Kings are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Blazers and Nets. The Warriors knocked the Kings out of the playoffs last season and they have their number. I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done tonight especially since they are the healthier, more confident team playing the better basketball in this winner-take-all. Bet the Warriors on the Money Line Tuesday. |
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04-14-24 | Rockets v. Clippers OVER 220.5 | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Clippers OVER 220.5 The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games. They are also 14-2 OVER in their last 16 games overall dating back further. The Clippers are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West with nothing to play for. That means their backups are going to be getting a lot of run, and this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA. It also means there will be zero defensive intensity on their end. This one has shootout written all over it as a result. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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04-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -19.5 | Top | 86-135 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West. They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so. The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West. They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding. As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber. It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points. But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game. They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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04-14-24 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +13.5 | Top | 126-111 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5 The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game. They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go. But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams. The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today. The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today. Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit. The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys. This is what the line would be if they were all playing. The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs. This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove. LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday. |
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04-14-24 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 227 | 122-132 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227 The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating. The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six. This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards. The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today. But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively. They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time. The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace. The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East. The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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04-14-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Celtics | 122-132 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5 The Washington Wizards continue to show up. They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread. The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much. Bet the Wizards Sunday. |
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04-12-24 | Suns -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5 I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight. They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed. They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight. The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed. The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential. They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies. They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets. They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting. Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight. Bet the Suns Friday. |
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04-12-24 | Hawks v. Wolves -12.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for. They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to. Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries. Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu. Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again. Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well. I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time. The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for. They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West. They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight. They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible. I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number. Bet the Timberwolves Friday. |
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04-12-24 | Raptors +15 v. Heat | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15 The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in. They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games. They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds. They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed. The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks. Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable. I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs. The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation. The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown. The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs. They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game. They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money. The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat. Bet the Raptors Friday. |