15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest Thursday night between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.  These are two teams with very good defenses and limited offenses who will find points very hard to come by.

Virginia Tech’s defense is going to be able to stop Pittsburgh’s offense. The Hokies have been tremendous against the run in allowing just 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry against teams who average 191 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, holding them to 82 yards and 1.5 per carry below their season average.

Pittsburgh is a team that relies exclusively on the run. It averages 46 rushing attempts and 244 yards per game on the ground compared to 24 pass attempts and 161 yards per game through the air. Their one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the football in this one.

The Panthers have given up 25 or fewer points in all six games they have played.  They are allowing just 19.0 points and 277.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense.  The Hokies have put up decent numbers offensively, but they've been up against six teams whose defenses average giving up 29.6 points and 415 yards per game.  They haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the one they will be up against Thursday.

Virginia Tech has played four elite offensive football teams this year, which makes their numbers defensively all the more impressive.  They combined with Ohio State for 56 points, East Carolina for 49 points, Georgia Tech for 51 points, and North Carolina for 51 points.  There's no question this game will stay below the 45.5-point total against a much worse offense and a much better defense in Pittsburgh.

In its last three games, Pittsburgh has combined with Iowa for 44 points, with Akron for 31 points, and with Virginia for 43 points as all three games have gone UNDER the total.  Look for this contest against the Hokies to take on a similar tone as they have a much better defense than those three teams, and only a slightly better offense.

Last year, Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh 19-9 at home for 28 combined points when the game total was set at 43.  This was precisely the defensive battle that the score would indicate as well.  The Hokies held the Panthers to 11 first downs and 210 total yards.  Virginia Tech managed 17 first downs and just 315 total yards in the victory.

Pittsburgh is 34-18 to the UNDER in its last 52 games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 24-9-1 in Hokies last 34 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Panthers last five games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* UL-Lafayette/Texas State No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -2

I’ve been really impressed with the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) in 2014 in just their third season as an FBS member and their second in the Sun Belt Conference. This is a team that went 6-6 last year with five of their wins coming against FBS foes. They certainly have a shot at bowl eligibility this year and are a dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt.

While the Bobcats’ three wins aren’t all that impressive aside from the 37-34 win at Tulsa as 3-point underdogs, their two losses say a lot about what kind of team this is. They only lost 21-35 at home to a very good Navy team while racking up 442 yards of total offense in the defeat. More promising yet was their 35-42 loss at Illinois as 11-point underdogs as they gained 475 yards in that game.

As you can see, Texas State has a very good offense, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering it returned eight starters on this side of the ball from last year. It is putting up 38.6 points and 497.8 yards per game on the season. Tyler Jones is completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,149 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores. Terrance Franks (408 yards, 7.8/carry, 6 TD) and Robert Lowe (402 yards, 5.9/carry, 2 TD) form a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Many expected Louisiana to win the Sun Belt this year. That looks like a long shot now after what this team has shown so far. The Rajin’ Cajuns’ only wins this season have both come at home against Southern (45-6) as a 38.5-point favorite and Georgia State (34-31) as a 16.5-point favorite. That half-point cover against Southern was the only cover for them all season. They have lost to LA Tech (20-48) at home, and Ole Miss (15-56) and Boise State (9-34) on the road.

I realize that Louisiana crushed Texas State last year by a final of 48-24. However, that couldn’t have been a better spot for the Rajin’ Cajuns as they were coming off a bye week and had a bye week on deck. It’s clear that the Rajin’ Cajuns are way down this season compared to last year, while the Bobcats are vastly improved. The Bobcats should have no problem moving the football and putting up points on a Louisiana defense that is giving up 35.0 points and 458.0 yards per game on the season.

Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) – after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 94-48 (66.2%) ATS since 1992. Louisiana is 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. Lafayette is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or less turnovers over the past two years. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Texas State Tuesday.

15* Penn State/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

James Franklin has had a bye week to get his team ready for Michigan. It certainly could not have been a pleasant bye week for these Nittany Lions players as they made all kinds of mistakes in their 23-point loss to Northwestern last time out. However, I believe that performance was an aberration and not the typical effort you will see from this Penn State (4-1) team the rest of the way, especially this week.

The Nittany Lions had been very impressive prior to that game during their 4-0 start. They outgained UCF by 265 yards in their 26-24 win over in Ireland, outgained Akron by 148 yards in their 21-3 home victory, outgained Rutgers by 79 yards in their 13-10 road win, and outgained UMass by 198 yards in their 48-7 home victory. They turned the ball over twice against Northwestern, including one that was returned for a touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter. This was a 14-6 game entering the final period.

It’s amazing that Brady Hoke has kept his job with the start the Wolverines are off to this season. They have gone just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against the likes of Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. They were blown out on the road by Notre Dame 31-0, and they suffered lopsided defeats at the hands of both Utah (10-26) and Minnesota (14-30) at home.

Even their 24-26 loss at Rutgers last week was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Wolverines 476-336 for the game, or by 140 total yards. Michigan was also outgained by a whopping 202 total yards by Minnesota the week before as its offense only put up 171 yards in that 16-point loss. The Wolverines have been held to 336 or fewer yards in all four of their losses.

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Michigan offense again this week against perhaps the best defense they have seen yet. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 14.6 points and 288.8 yards per game this season to rank 9th in the country in total defense. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the superior unit as they are averaging 407.8 yards per game, while the Wolverines are only averaging 354.0 yards per game.

Making matters worse for the Michigan offense is the fact that it is going to be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season.  Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7/carry, 3 TD) broke his collarbone against Rutgers and is done for the year.  Also, second-leading rusher De'Veon Smith (282 yards, 6.0/carry, 4 TD) is dealing with an injury, though he is expected to give it a go against Penn State.  That puts even more pressure on Devin Gardner, who has already thrown seven interceptions in 120 attempts this season.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN) – with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS since 1992. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -8.5

There’s no question that Nick Saban is steaming over the loss to Ole Miss. That will be reflected in practice this week in preparation for Arkansas. Look for him to rally the troops and have the Crimson Tide coming back motivated and determined this week as all of their goals are still within their grasp despite that loss. This team is simply too talented for the Razorbacks to hang with.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Arkansas with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points per game. Five of those wins have come by 24 or more points, and the last two have resulted in 52-0 blowouts in the Crimson Tide’s favor. While the Razorbacks are a better team this year, they aren’t good enough to stay within single-digits of Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been dominant statistically this season. They average 37.0 points and 549.2 yards per game on offense, which makes this one of the most explosive units in the Saban era. While the defense is perceived to be down a notch, they are still allowing just 15.8 points and 264.8 yards per game and are only going to get better on this side of the ball as the season progresses.

Arkansas is an improved offensive team this season, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. It is giving up 25.8 points and 403.2 yards per game this season. In the opener against Auburn, the Razorbacks were beaten 21-45 as they were outgained 328-595 for the game. Alabama is every bit as good as Auburn this season, so expect a one-sided affair in this one. The Razorbacks also gave up 523 total yards to Texas A&M last time out.

Alabama is only giving up 64 yards per game and 2.6 per carry on the ground this season, so the Razorbacks won’t be able to do a whole lot defensively because they rely on the run almost exclusively.  Indeed, the Razorbacks average 317 yards on the ground and only 168 through the air.  This is the type of game where being one-dimensional is going to really cost Arkansas.

Alabama is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bret Bielema is 2-14 ATS versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game in all games he has coached.  Finally, the Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back SEC games since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa back in 2007.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Auburn/Mississippi State CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) have been arguably the most underrated team in the country up to this point. I believe they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as a 3-point home underdog to the Auburn Tigers (5-0) in this one. It makes sense because they have been down for so long, but this isn’t the same Mississippi State team of year’s past. This is Dan Mullen’s best team yet with 16 starters back, and a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

The last two wins by Mississippi State show that it is for real. It went into LSU and came away with a 34-29 victory as a 7-point underdog. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Bulldogs led 34-10 in the fourth quarter before LSU got 19 garbage points in the final period. They dominated from start to finish last week, beating Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite.

I stated last week that Dak Prescott is a guy you need to keep your eye on for the Heisman Trophy, and he had another big performance against the Aggies. He totaled five touchdowns in the win with two passing and three rushing. Prescott is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 455 yards and six scores on the season. He is a 235-pound quarterback in a running back’s body.

While I admit that Auburn has been better than I expected this season, it has done all of its damage at home. In its only road game this year, it won 20-14 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. It had no business winning that game as the Wildcats missed three field goals. They also had a touchdown pass dropped in the end zone that turned into an interception for the Tigers.

The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Last year, Mississippi State only lost 20-24 at Auburn as a 6.5-point road underdog. That effort against the eventual SEC champs showed what the Bulldogs were capable of. Now, with a much better team in 2014 and getting the Tigers at home this time around, I look for the the Bulldogs to pull off the upset this week.

Sure, Mississippi State has been torched through the air this year, but that won't come into play this week against an Auburn team that throws the ball just 34% of the time and runs it 66% of the time.  That makes this a great match-up for the Bulldogs, who are only giving up 98 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry against opponents who average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Auburn's one-dimensional offense will cost them, while Mississippi State's balanced attack (274 rypg, 267 pypg) will be tough for the Tigers to stop.

One trend that just goes to show how undervalued the Bulldogs have been is the fact that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +8

If you’ve ready anything I’ve written about TCU (4-0) before, you’ll know that they were my pick to win the Big 12 coming into the season. I was on them last week against Oklahoma, and I am taking them this week against Baylor as well. This is arguably the best team that head coach Gary Patterson has had yet. They only went 4-8 last year but were much better than that, losing by a field goal to both Baylor and Oklahoma.

In that 38-41 home loss to Baylor last year, the Horned Frogs played the Bears as good as almost anyone. They actually outgained them 410-370 for the game, but committed three turnovers that cost them the victory. The defense limited Bryce Petty to just 19 of 38 passing for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, which is no small feat. Their defense played as well against Baylor as anyone last year.

That stop unit has been a big reason for the 4-0 start this season. The Horned Frogs are only giving up 13.5 points and 279.2 yards per game this year. They actually ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense last season among conference games. This stop unit does not get enough credit, and it is fully capable of containing this high-powered Baylor offense again in 2014.

However, the biggest difference for TCU this year has been the improvement on offense. It went to a new no-huddle, spread offense, and it is getting rave reviews. The Frogs are averaging 42.7 points and 516.2 yards per game this season. They put up 37 points and 469 total yards against Oklahoma last week as Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and rushed for 77 more. Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores this year.

Baylor is a team I have backed in four of the five games it has played this year, so I have been big on the Bears as well. They have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in all games this season. However, the betting public is finally onto how good this team is, and they are finally overvalued this week as more than a touchdown favorite.

TCU is by far the best team that they have faced this year as the Bears have played an extremely soft schedule, so they aren’t battle-tested, which hurts them coming into this one.  Baylor has played the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Texas.  TCU's win over Oklahoma gives it the confidence needed to go into Baylor and pull off the upset in this one.

The Horned Frogs have really dominated this series with the Bears.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Baylor dating back to 2006.  Their two losses have come by a combined 5 points.  Back in 2012, the Horned Frogs went on the road and beat Baylor 49-21 as 6-point underdogs.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for TCU to likely win the game, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Baylor is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. good pass defenses that allow 48% completions or less. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus good defensive teams that give up 4.25 or fewer yards per play. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Baylor.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Carolina +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) are way overvalued this week off their win over Stanford last week. There are certain games where statistics can be thrown out the window, and this is one of them.  You look at the numbers and you see a great Notre Dame defense and a terrible UNC stop unit up to this point, but those are two things I'm willing to overlook because of this tough situation for the Fighting Irish.

That victory over the Cardinal sets them up for a letdown spot here. Couple that with the fact that they play No. 1 Florida State next week, and there’s almost no way they bring their best effort to the field against UNC. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Seminoles and won’t have the kind of focus it takes to win by 17-plus points against the Tar Heels.

Without question, North Carolina has been way overvalued up to this point in the season. Many thought that it would win the ACC Coastal Division this season, but that is looking like a long shot now after three straight losses, including two to ACC foes.

However, those three losses all came to very good teams in East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia Tech. They at least hung around against both Clemson and VA Tech as last week’s 17-34 find score against the Hokies was nowhere near indicative of how close the game was.  I really liked what I saw out of this UNC defense last week as they limited the Hokies to 357 yards of total offense. It just shows that the defense can be better than it was through the first four games of the season.

After going 0-5 against the spread through their first five games, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Tar Heels. They are finally undervalued now after being overvalued up to this point. It’s time to jump back on the Tar Heels, who won six of their final seven games last season to come on strong in the second half after a slow start.  I can easily foresee the same thing happening in 2014 with the talent that is on this roster.

The Fighting Irish were in a similar letdown spot earlier this season.  They were coming off a 31-0 win over Michigan in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Wolverines actually outgained them for the game.  They played Purdue next week, and I was all over the Boilermakers as 30-point underdogs.  The Fighting Irish only won that game by 16 points.  This is an even tougher spot for them because of the letdown/lookahead spot combined, and UNC is a better team than Purdue.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off four or more consecutive unders. Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) – average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last three games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) certainly were not that dominant in their first three non-conference games, but they got the job done. Their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern had many folks skeptical, but it has been proven since that Georgia Southern is no joke. With a 27-24 road win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 home win over Miami to open ACC play, it’s also clear that the Yellow Jackets are a real contender to win the Coastal Division this season.

Duke is a team I had circled coming into the year as overvalued. It certainly was overvalued heading into ACC play due to four straight wins in the non-conference over lowly teams like Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. That showed in a 10-22 road loss to Miami in its ACC opener in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils were outgained by the Hurricanes 264-426 for the game and should have lost by more.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Georgia Tech is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Duke with an average victory of 21.2 points per game. It is 18-1 the last 19 meetings as well while winning nine straight home meetings all by 10 or more points. Last year, Georgia Tech beat the Blue Devils 38-14 while outgaining them 469-254 for the game in an completely lopsided affair.

Duke will likely have the same troubles in this one, which is stopping the run. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards on them last year. They rank 11th in the FBS in rushing (297.2 ypg) behind quarterback Justin Thomas (6.0 ypc) and Zach Laskey (5.0 ypc). Duke has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its last three games to Kansas, Tulane and Miami.

It’s really sad that the Blue Devils gave up that many yards to both Kansas and Tulane and shows what kind of poor shape this rush D is really in.  Sure, Duke does get a bye to prepare for Georgia Tech, but that is the only factor it has working in its favor.  A bye is not going to magically upgrade their talent on defense, which is what they need to be able to stop this potent Yellow Jackets rushing attack.  David Cutcliffe is 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play as the coach of Duke.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off their bye week, so they have two full weeks to prepare for Indiana, which is a huge advantage. They did look shaky in the early going this season with a 2-1 start that included a loss to Iowa State.  However, they have gotten a lot better in their two games since, which have been their two most impressive performances of the season.

Quarterback C.J. Bethard replaced an injured Jake Rudock midway through the Pittsburgh game a couple weeks ago.  He led Iowa to a come-from-behind 24-20 road victory over the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs.  Bethard continued his solid play the next week, leading Iowa to a 24-10 road win at Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite.

Head coach Kirk is beating around the bush with the media about who is going to play quarterback this week now that Rudock is healthy.  However, with Bethard being the reason for the solid play the last two weeks by this team, there's almost no doubt in my mind that he will get the nod.  He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last two games compared to Rudock's 6.3 yards per attempt against softer competition in the first three-plus games.  His ability to throw the deep ball opens up the Iowa rushing attack.

Indiana is being overvalued right now due to its 31-27 road win at Missouri.  I was on Indiana in that game because it was a huge lookahead spot for the Tigers, who had their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina the following week.  They caught the Tigers in a spot where they were ripe for the upset.

Really, that was the Hoosiers' only strong performance this season.  They have two terrible efforts in a 42-45 road loss at Bowling Green as a 9-point favorite, and a 15-37 home loss to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite.  Those two performances are more indicative of what kind of team Indiana is rather than the upset win at Missouri.

This is a great matchup for Iowa because its strength is stopping the run, while Indiana's strength is its rushing attack.  The Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards per game on the ground this season.  However, Iowa is only giving up 93 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's really impressive when you consider the teams they have played average 145 yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.

Iowa has won four of its last five meetings with Indiana with its only loss coming in 2012 by a final of 21-24 on the road.  The Hawkeyes are a real contender to win the Big Ten West Division this season, and they know that they cannot afford to overlook a team like Indiana.  They won't fall victim this week because they have had two weeks to prepare and are itching to get back on the field.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Indiana is 0-13 ATS in its last 13 games after outrushing its last opponents by 200 or more yards.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS off a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.  Thee Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State -10

Fresno State (3-3) is coming off a 24-13 home victory over San Diego State last week for its third win in a row. UNLV (1-5) has lost four in a row, including its 10-33 road loss at the hands of San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with three straight wins and covers following three straight losses and ATS defeats to open the season. Those three losses came against three of the better teams in the country in USC, Utah and Nebraska. They really got the Bulldogs battle-tested heading into conference play, and they have looked like a much better team against inferior competition.

They beat Southern Utah 56-16, New Mexico 35-24 on the road, and San Diego State 24-13 at home. Their defense has really showed some life by limiting each of their last three opponents to 382 or less yards, including the 270 yards to the Aztecs last week. Their offense has also come around with 694 total yards against Southern Utah and 593 total yards against New Mexico. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.

UNLV has gone 1-5 against the spread in 2014 after making a bowl game last year. This team has been overvalued all season long to say the least. Its only cover came as an 18-point underdog to San Diego State in a 17-point loss. All five of its losses have come by 14 or more points this season, and its only win came against FCS foe Northern Colorado by a final of 13-12 as a 27.5-point home favorite.

The Rebels have really been bitten by injuries this season. Starting quarterback Blake Decker was injured in last week’s 10-33 loss to San Jose State in which they were outgained by 321 total yards by the Spartans in perhaps their worst effort of the year. Backup Nick Sherry was awful as his replacement, completing just 5 of 18 passes for 45 yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Decker is questionable to return this week. This is an offense that was already without last year’s top receiver in Devante Davis (87 receptions, 1,290 yards, 14 TD in 2013), who has missed the past two games and is questionable to return this week.  Also, leading rusher Keith Whitely (299 yards, 4.9/carry) is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

The Rebels really need these players to be healthy because their offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with opponents due to their porous defense. Indeed, the Rebels are giving up an average of 38.7 points and 545.3 yards per game this season. That’s really bad when you consider that their five opponents this season average just 25.9 points and 418 total yards per game on the year.

Fresno State has owned UNLV by going 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with an average score of 38-16. All 10 wins came by 11 points or more. That includes last year’s 38-14 triumph by the Bulldogs that was completely a one-sided affair. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels 641-294 for the game. Look for Fresno State to score at will offensively, and to get enough stops against this injury-riddled UNLV offense to cover the number Friday.

Plays on road favorites (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Fresno State Friday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico +4.5

San Diego State (2-3) is coming off a 13-24 road loss to Fresno State last week as a 3.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-3) is coming off a huge upset win at UTSA by a final of 21-9 as a 16.5-point underdog.

San Diego State head coach Rocky Long said on Sunday that senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler is expected to miss a second straight game after sitting out the 13-24 loss to Fresno State last week. That means freshman QB Nick Bawden will get another start after a disastrous effort against the Bulldogs. Bawden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and those three turnovers led to 14 points for Fresno State.

Bawden went just 9-of-24 passing for 84 yards with one touchdown on those three turnovers against Fresno State. The loss of Kaehler, who threw for 3,007 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, certainly hurts. The offense was already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 68 receptions for 1,136 yards and three scores n 2013. That means the offense has lost each of its top four receivers from last year, which makes it tougher on Bawden as he has no playmakers outside.

After a frustrating 24-35 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, New Mexico showed a lot of resolve last week by going on the road and coming away with a 21-9 victory over a very good UTSA team. It outgained the Roadrunners 370-341 for the game as it put up 283 yards on the ground and 5.9 per carry. Look for the Lobos to control this game behind a potent rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game and 6.1 per carry on the season.

The Lobos had won eight straight meetings with the Aztecs prior to losing the last four. However, three of the last four losses have been by 10, 5 and 3 points. They will certainly want some revenge this time around, and should have a good chance of getting it as this is Bob Davie’s best team yet. They only lost 30-35 last year at SDSU as a 14-point underdog and were only outgained 483-423. The home team has won four of the last five meetings.

This is Rocky Long’s worst team yet at San Diego State. This team has really been inept on the road this season.  The Aztecs are 0-3 away from home, scoring just 15.7 points per game while giving up 27.7 points per contest.  They only managed 215 total yards in a 7-28 loss at Oregon State.  They were also held to only 13 points and 270 total yards last week against a very suspect Fresno State defense.

New Mexico is a sensational 39-22 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Lobos are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* BYU/UCF ESPN Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The season-ending injury to BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is going to derail their season. He was a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the reason this team was a sleeper to make the four-team playoff. He was having another fine game against Utah State last week before going out with a broken leg. Backup Christian Stewart was atrocious in his place, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdown and three picks.

Stewart is not even one-fourth of the quarterback that Hill was. While he should be better with a full week to prepare to run the offense, he just lacks the leadership and dual-threat ability that Hill had. He’ll be up against another great defense this week in UCF, which is giving up just 20.7 points and 334.2 yards per game this season.  The Knights limited Houston to just 12 points and 331 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers in their 17-12 road victory over the Cougars.

While the BYU offense will struggle due to a limited playbook for their backup quarterback, their defense will likely shoulder the load and keep them in this ball game.  That's because they will be up against a UCF offense that has been terrible this year.  Indeed, the Knights rank 122nd out of 128 teams in total offense at 281.0 yards per game this season.  They clearly miss Blake Bortles, who has left for the NFL and leaves behind one of the worst offenses in all of college football.

These teams last met in 2011 with BYU coming away with a 24-17 home victory for 41 combined points.  The total was set at 44 points for that game, and I believe we'll see a similar result here with the final combined score finishing less than 46 points.  These teams combined for just 659 total yards in that game, and I look for that number to be less in the rematch considering the poor shape that both of these offenses are in.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BYU) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), in non-conference games are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  BYU is 29-12 to the UNDER in its last 41 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cougars last five Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cougars last six road games.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knights last 43 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +13.5

The Utah Utes (3-1) are a one-point loss to Washington State (27-28) last week away from being undefeated on the season.  They have blown out Fresno State (59-27) at home as well as coming away with an impressive win at Michigan State (26-10).  They have played a tough schedule to this point and have shown that they are a much-improved team in 2014.

UCLA (4-0) did not look good in the first three weeks of the season.  It failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games, winning at Virginia (28-20) as a 19-point favorite, beating Memphis (42-35) at home as a 22-point favorite, and knocking off Texas (20-17) on the road as an 8-point favorite.  Those results were certainly reason to worry about the Bruins.

However, they came back with an inspired effort last week after having lost to Arizona State last year, which cost them a shot at a Pac-12 Title.  Of course they were going to be up for that game, and they showed it by throttling the Sun Devils (62-27) on the road.  The thing is that ASU is way down this season with only two returning starters on defense, plus they lost starting quarterback Taylor Kelly to injury, so he didn't even play in that game.  This team just isn't the same without Kelly running the show.

Now, the public perception is that UCLA is the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the season.  That could not be further from the truth.  I'm not willing to just throw out their first three games of the season, which showed that they weren't the team they were cracked up to be.  The Bruins still have a lot of flaws, yet they are being asked to win by two touchdowns against an improved Utah team this week to cover the spread.

There's no question that the Bruins are overvalued this week in my mind.  Now, they are in a very tough spot mentally.  They just got revenge on ASU and are undefeated on the season.  That alone sets them up for a letdown spot.  However, the bigger situational factor in play here is the fact that UCLA has Oregon on deck next week.  Without question, the Bruins will be looking ahead to that game, and the Utes won't have their full attention because of it.

We've seen the last two years that Utah is capable of beating UCLA, but it has come up just short both times.  UCLA beat Utah 21-14 as a 9.5-point home favorite in 2012, only outgaining the Utes 354-319 for the game.  Then, last year, the Utes lost 27-34 at home to the Bruins as a 5-point underdog.  They were only outgained 387-404 in that game, and the only reason they lost was because they committed a whopping six turnovers.  I look for this game to be decided by a touchdown or less as well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Utes pull the upset.

Plays against home favorites (UCLA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7.5

This is essentially a must-win game for LSU if it wants to compete for an SEC West Title. That extra motivation will certainly be in play here after the loss to Mississippi State in the conference opener. A very tough schedule thus far that has featured Wisconsin and the Bulldogs will have this team battle-tested as it goes into Auburn this weekend.

LSU fell way behind against Mississippi State, but rallied and made a game out of it late thanks to the play of sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris. He took the place of the ineffective Anthony Jennings in that game, and went 6-of-9 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns to lead LSU back late.

Harris continued his stellar play against New Mexico State, going 11-of-14 for 178 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. All seven of his drives against the Aggies resulted in touchdowns for the Tigers.  Jennings has completed 50.6 percent of his passes (42 of 83) for 734 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. In a smaller body of work, Harris has completed 73.3 percent (22 of 30) for 394 yards and six scores with one INT.  This guy is the real deal and the future of the program.  He'll get the start this week.

Auburn is still overvalued after making the national title game last year. It won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less in 2013, and it already has one of those on its résumé thus far. It beat Kansas State on the road 20-14 in a game that it should have lost. The Wildcats missed three field goals in that game and committed three turnovers, including one that would have been a touchdown that bounce off a receiver’s chest and wound up being an interception in Auburn’s end zone.

LSU beat Auburn 35-21 at home last year to continue its domination in this series. Indeed, LSU has won six of the last seven meetings with Auburn. LSU led 21-0 at halftime last year with Auburn not once making it past the LSU 41-yard line. Auburn would make a bit of a comeback after halftime, but this game was already decided at that point as LSU handed Auburn its only regular season defeat.

Plays against home favorites (AUBURN) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. LSU is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Auburn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -14.5

While the spreads have been set pretty big for Baylor (4-0), the fact of the matter is that this team still doesn’t get enough respect from oddsmakers. It went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. It has already opened 3-0-1 ATS in 2014 with its only non-cover coming against Iowa State last week in a 49-28 win as a 21-point favorite. The Cyclones scored 21 points in the second half with the game already decided and Baylor taking the foot off the gas.

Don’t look for the Bears to take their foot off the gas in this one. Art Briles knows that his program is fighting for recruiting with Texas, and his team has been actually winning that battle recently. The only way to keep winning it is to continue beating Texas handily, so look for him to show no mercy in this game like he did last week against Iowa State when he pulled Bryce Petty and several starters after three quarters.

You can believe that Briles will be reminding his players of all the agony this program had to go through for a long time when Texas kept beating it repeatedly. The tables have turned, and now the Bears have won three of the last four meetings while going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They have put up over 500 yards of offense on Texas in each of the last three meetings as well.

The 30-10 win over the Longhorns last year was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bears outgained them 508-217 for the game. They would have won by more, but they were feeling the nerves of trying to win their first Big 12 Championship in the season finale and were tight.  They won't be tight in this one as this is an early-season matchup and they'll be looking to make a statement once again.

Texas is in rebuilding mode right now. It has already suffered two losses this season with an embarrassing 7-41 setback against BYU, and a 17-20 home loss to UCLA. That game against the Bruins was a bigger blowout than the final score shows as the Longhorns were outgained 322-443 for the game. Brett Hundley had to leave that game early in the first quarter, forcing UCLA to use its backup quarterback for nearly all four quarters, and yet it still won.  The perception that the Longhorns played the Bruins tough is a contributing factor in keeping this number lower than it should be.

The Longhorns are without their starting quarterback and three starting offensive linemen. They have had nine players kicked off the team as Charlie Strong tries to put his imprint on the program. Sure, there are some players who are buying in, but these aren’t Strong’s players. They are having a tough time adjusting to his way of doing things, and not everybody is laying it all on the line for him right now.

The offense only managed 329 total yards against lowly Kansas last week, and they are averaging just 315.5 yards per game on the season.  They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with Baylor in this one.  One of the biggest reasons the Bears are underrated is because their offense gets all the credit.  Meanwhile, the defense is going under the radar, allowing just 13.7 points and 250.5 yards per game this season.  This is arguably the best stop unit in the Big 12.  The Bears certainly have the best D-Line in the conference.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bears are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Roll with Baylor Saturday.

15* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +2.5

I have been very impressed with Notre Dame this season behind the play of quarterback Everett Golson. It has opened 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with its only non-cover coming against Purdue (30-14) as a 30-point favorite. That was a clear letdown spot for the Irish off the big 31-0 win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite. It has also beaten Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite, and Syracuse 31-15 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite.

Golson is now 14-1 as a starter at Notre Dame with his only loss coming against Florida State in the 2012-13 BCS Championship. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,142 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 104 yards and four scores this year.

The junior was suspended for all of the 2013 season, which allowed him to work on his game while also watching from the outside to work on the mental side of it, too. It’s clearly paying big dividends this year as the offense is averaging 35.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, and Golson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's no denying that Stanford has an elite defense. It has put up tremendous numbers this season, but a closer look at the schedule shows that it hasn't been as impressive as it is perceived to be.  The Cardinal have not faced an offense as good as the one they will be up against this week.  Their four opponents have been Cal Davis, USC, Army and Washington.  USC is by far the best offensive team they have played, and Washington has one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12.

The problem for this team is the play of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who just holds the Cardinal down. They had nine trips inside the USC 30-yard line and only came away with 10 points, losing by a final of 10-13. Last week, the defense limited Washington to 13 points, but Hogan was only able to muster up 20 points as the Cardinal got a late score to win by a touchdown 20-13. That was not a very good Washington team, and USC is obviously not a great team either as it lost to Boston College.

Despite playing a tougher schedule than Stanford, the Fighting Irish have held their own defensively as well.  They are only giving up 11.5 points per game on the season.  They shut out Michigan 31-0 and have held all four of their opponents in Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse to 17 points or less.  The Cardinal may have a slight edge on defense, but the difference in this game will be Golson outplaying Hogan by a landslide, as well as the home-field for the Fighting Irish.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Stanford and Notre Dame. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Even in a down year last season, the Irish hung tough on the road and only lost by a final of 20-27 as a 16.5-point underdog. With Golson running the show this time around, I look for him to improve to 15-1 as a starter overall, including 2-0 against Stanford.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pac-12 opponents. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU +6

I picked TCU (3-0) to surprise and win the Big 12 this season and have seen nothing to this point to change my mind. This will be Oklahoma’s toughest test of the entire season, and I look for it to fail and come away with a loss in Forth Worth Saturday afternoon. The perception on the Horned Frogs is that they are down since they joined the Big 12, but they simply have had inexperience and close losses over the past two seasons.

Two of those close losses last year came to both Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs were only beaten by the Sooners 17-20 on the road as a 10-point underdog. They then gave Baylor a run for their money in their season finale, losing 38-41 at home as a 13-point dog. Remember, this team went 4-8 last year, but they were much better than their record would indicate. That is going to show in 2014 as Gary Patterson has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and a hungry, talented, experienced bunch.

I love what the new up-tempo, spread offense is doing for the Horned Frogs this year. They are averaging 44.7 points and 532.0 yards per game behind the play of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 858 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception, while also rushing for 183 yards and three scores.

The defense has been dynamite and is the backbone of this team after finishing 1st in the conference in total defense last year. The Frogs are giving up just 7.0 points and 218.7 yards per game. Their 30-7 win over Minnesota looks a lot better now after the Golden Gophers went into Michigan and came away with a 30-14 win last week. TCU held a very good Minnesota rushing attack to just 99 yards on 36 carries. It is allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry this season.

Admittedly, Oklahoma has been better than I expected it to be coming into the season. However, this team hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules. Also, its 34-10 win over Tennessee at home wasn’t the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Vols were going in for a TD in the fourth quarter that would have made it a 10-point game, but threw a 100-yard pick six. The 45-33 win at West Virginia saw the Mountaineers put up 513 total yards, but the three turnovers they committed really were the different in the game.

Despite not getting the results that they wanted in their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs played the Sooners tough in both meetings.  As stated before, they only lost 17-20 at Oklahoma last year.  They also lost 17-24 at home to Oklahoma in 2012.  Both meetings were decided by a touchdown or less, and this one is likely to come down to the wire as well, which is where the 6-point spread comes into play.  Except this time, because this is arguably Patterson's best TCU team yet, I look for the Frogs to pull the upset.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on any team (TCU) – with a great scoring defense – allowing 14 or less points/game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points are 87-44 (66.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. TCU is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games. The Horned Frogs are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Gary Patterson is 63-15 at home as the coach of TCU. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Mississippi State SEC No-Brainer on Mississippi State -2

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) are the real deal this season, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only a 2-point home favorite here. Dan Mullen has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and 57 lettermen who came back from last year’s squad. This is a team that started to show signs of life at the end of last year with close losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, and then three straight victories to close out the season.

They have picked up right where they left off with a perfect 4-0 start this year. The win at LSU really tells a lot about how far this team has come. The 34-29 final doesn’t do that game justice as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs led the Tigers 34-10 in the fourth quarter before a late rally by the Tigers made the final score look closer than it really was. Mississippi State outgained LSU 570-430 for the game.

Dak Prescott is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. He proved it against LSU, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score. Josh Robinson had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 197 yards and a touchdown as well. Prescott is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 378 yards and three scores on the year. Robinson has 485 rushing yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per carry.

Almost everyone jumped on the Texas A&M bandwagon after a 52-28 win over South Carolina in the opener. That win doesn’t look nearly as good now as the Gamecocks already have two losses this season and are clearly down. Three straight blowout wins over lesser competition further upped the hype on the Aggies. However, in their 38-10 win over Rice, they were actually outgained 481-477 for the game. Then their weaknesses really showed against Arkansas last week.

Texas A&M really had no business beating Arkansas, but wound up doing so by a final of 35-28 in overtime despite trailing 28-14 late in the third quarter. The defense is the real problem for the Aggies. They gave up those 481 yards to Rice, and then they allowed 484 yards to the Razorbacks. A whopping 285 of those came on the ground. Now, they'll be up against another elite rushing attack this week, and also a team that throws the football a lot better than Arkansas.

Mississippi State hung tough at Texas A&M last year in a 41-51 road loss as a 19.5-point underdog. It actually outgained the Aggies 566-537 for the game while racking up 299 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. Prescott was splitting time with Tyler Russell at quarterback in that game and still threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 154 yards on 16 carries. Having to face Prescott for a full four quarters will expose this A&M defense even more.

Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when facing a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after gaining 450 or more yards in three consecutive games. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

These five trends combine for a 36-2 ATS system backing the Bulldogs.  Finally, Mississippi State has had a bye week to get ready for Texas A&M, which will be a huge advantage heading into this one.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -7.5

Once Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in Week 2, I knew there was going to be a lot of value in backing this team going forward.  That has proven to be the case as they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since with a 66-0 home win over Kent State as a 31-point favorite and a 50-28 home victory over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite.  Unfortunately, I didn't back the Buckeyes against Kent State, but I did roll them last week against Cincinnati.

I'm on the Buckeyes again this week for many of the same reasons.  This is still arguably the best team in the Big Ten.  The problem early in the season was the play of freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, but this youngster has improved by leaps and bounds the last two weeks.  After all, he was the second-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, so it was only a matter of time before he'd start to shine.

He has done just that these last two weeks.  Barrett went 23 of 30 passing for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one pick while leading the Buckeyes to 628 yards of total offense against Kent State.  He came back with another strong performance against a much better team in Cincinnati last week.  He went 26 of 36 passing for 330 yards and four touchdowns without a pick, while also rushing for 79 yards in the win. 

So, over the last two weeks combined, he is putting up Heisman Trophy-like numbers with 642 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one pick.  You can look, but you won't find another head coach that has had better success with quarterbacks than Urban Meyer, who has turned guys like Alex Smith, Troy Smith and Tim Tebow into superstars at the college level.  Meyer is also now 27-1 in the regular season as the coach of Ohio State.

Maryland (4-1) is certainly an improved team this year, but all four of its wins have come against mediocre competition in James Madison, South Florida, Syracuse and Indiana.  The one loss came against West Virginia at home, and even that contest was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Terrapins were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 447-694 for the game.  If the defense gave up nearly 700 yards to WVU, just imagine what Barrett and company are going to do in this one.

Meyer is now 93-56 ATS in all games he has coached.  Meyer is 38-13 ATS off a non-conference game in all games he has coached.  Randy Edsall is 2-12 ATS off a game where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.  It's also worth nothing that Maryland QB C.J. Brown is questionable to play this week after suffering an injury against Indiana, tho early reports are that he will start.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Utah State +21

Both BYU (4-0) and Utah State (2-2) are coming off byes heading into this one. The Cougars were last seen beating Virginia 41-33 as a 16-point home favorite. The Aggies were last in action with a 14-21 (OT) road loss at Arkansas State as a 2.5-point dog.

In these rivalry games, I usually look to take the underdog when the spread is this big. These games are played much closer to the vest, and they tend to be closer than expected when the favorite is laying this many points. The Aggies have hung tough in this rivalry by going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with their biggest loss coming by 20 points during this span. Two of their last their last three losses to the Cougars have come by a field goal.

BYU comes into this game overvalued due to its perfect start to the season, which included a blowout win at Texas. It has clearly been overvalued in its last two games, which both have come at home. It was a 17-point favorite over Houston and only won 33-25. It was also a 16-point favorite against Virginia and only won 41-33. I could easily see this game going down to the wire, let alone the Aggies staying within three touchdowns.

Utah State is not getting much love here because it was blown out at Tennessee in its opener. However, the Vols are much better than they get credit for, as evidenced by last week’s three-point road loss at Georgia. The 14-21 loss at Arkansas State looks bad too, but the Aggies actually outplayed the Red Wolves in a losing effort. They outgained them 413-316 for the game and should have won.

Sure, starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton is injured and may be done for the year, but backup Darrell Garretson has actually put up better numbers than Keaton this season. Indeed, he is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while filling in for Keaton. He completed 27 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one pick in the loss to Arkansas State and has had nearly two weeks of practice to get ready for this one.

Utah State tends to have one of the more underrated defenses in the country year in and year out. Despite all the losses on this side of the ball in the offseason, the Aggies have held their own. They are only allowing 334.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play while forcing 11 turnovers through four games. This stop unit has familiarity working in its favor having faced BYU each of the past six seasons.

The strength of the Utah State defense is its run D, which is allowing 78 yards per game and 2.2 per carry. BYU relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 230 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for Utah State, especially with its familiarity with the Cougars' offense.

BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. excellent run defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off one or more consecutive losses. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS off a home win over the past three seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on Arizona +24

Both Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) and Arizona (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) are coming off bye weeks. The Ducks were last seen beating Washington State 38-31 on the road as a 23-point favorite on September 20th. The Wildcats are coming off a 49-45 home win over California thanks to a hail mary for a touchdown on the final play of the game.

The Ducks have been a huge public team over the last few years, which is why they have consistently been overvalued this season, and appear to be overvalued again as a 24-point favorite in this one. The public continues to back them religiously, which is why their numbers have been set too high. They have gone just 1-3 ATS in 2014 and were fortunate to cover against Michigan State, needing 28 unanswered points in the second half to win 46-27 as a 14-point favorite.

That game against the Spartans was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Ducks only outgained them 491-466. They only outgained Wyoming by 117 total yards in their 48-14 victory, another contest that was closer than the final score. Then, they only outgained Washington State 501-499 in their narrow 38-31 road victory last time out as a 23-point favorite.

Oregon’s defense has been torched by opposing quarterbacks for an average of 315 passing yards per game this season. It gave up 343 yards to Michigan State, 284 yards to Wyoming, and 436 yards to Washington State through the air. Now, Oregon will be up against a high-powered Arizona offensive attack that is averaging 42.0 points and 593.7 yards per game, including 366 passing yards per contest.

The Wildcats clearly have the offense that can put up points and allow them to stay within the number in this one. Anu Solomon is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not too many folks know about. He is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 167 yards on 39 carries. Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions for 475 yards and six touchdowns as part of one of the best receiving corps in the land.

Scoring points has not been a problem for Arizona in this series with Oregon. Indeed, the Wildcats have put up 29 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Ducks. I believe 29 or more points is a foregone conclusion against this soft Oregon defense, which will allow them to stay within this 24-point spread as the Ducks likely won’t get to 50. Oregon is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -21

The Baylor Bears have gotten off to another fast start this season, winning and covering each of their first three games, including their 63-21 victory at Buffalo last time out. Somehow, some way the Bears continue to not get the credit they deserve from oddsmakers. They won the Big 12 last year and are one of the favorites to win it again in 2014.

The books simply haven’t been able to set the numbers high enough in these first three games. The Bears have covered as a 31.5-point favorite against SMU (45-0), a 46.5-point favorite against Northwestern State (70-6), and as a 33-point favorite over Buffalo (63-21).  I don’t believe they have set the number high enough in this game, either.

Baylor has been the most impressive team in the Big 12 to this point, or it is at least neck-and-neck with Oklahoma. Its offense is dynamite once again despite being down some receivers due to injury for a few games. It is averaging 59.3 points and 654.3 yards per game, and after having two weeks to get healthy, starting receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman are expected to return this week. The defense has been as good if not better than the offense in allowing just 9.0 points and 221.0 yards per game.

Baylor absolutely destroyed Iowa State last year in a 71-7 victory that was as impressive as any in all of college football. It racked up 714 yards of offense while allowing just 174 to the Cyclones. Bryce Petty went 23 of 31 passing for 343 yards and two touchdowns before getting pulled early. The defense held Cyclone quarterbacks to 15 of 27 passing for 123 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They also limited ISU to 41 yards on 33 carries on the ground, an average of 1.2 per carry.

Iowa State is coming off its Super Bowl, which is the instate rivalry against Iowa that means more to the Cyclones than any other game throughout the course of any season. They did win that game 20-17, but the Hawkeyes are clearly down this season. You can’t forget the stinker that this team put up in the opener with a 14-34 loss to North Dakota State as the Cyclones allowed 34 unanswered points after taking an early 14-0 lead. They were outgained in that game 253-503 by the Bison.

While Iowa State did hang tough against Kansas State, it needed a TD on a punt return as well as another score on a reverse pass to keep that game close. In all reality, that game was far from the 28-32 contest it turned out to be. The Cyclones were actually outgained 319-471 by the Wildcats and should have lost by a lot more. All 28 of their points came in a wild second quarter where the Wildcats simply let down their guard. Baylor doesn’t let down its guard, it just keeps pouring on the points, which allows it to cover these big spreads.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 points or more over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that gain 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -17

The Buckeyes (2-1) are coming off a 66-0 home win against Kent State prior to having their first bye of the season last week. The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) were on the only team in the country to have byes in the first two weeks of the season. They have since beaten Toledo 58-34 and Miami of Ohio 31-24 at home each of the past two weeks, respectively.

I believe the Buckeyes are undervalued right now after their slow start to the season. They won at Navy 34-17 in their opener, but needed a monster finish to pull away for that victory in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate. Then, they lost at home to Virginia Tech by a final of 21-35 as they were sloppy in committing three turnovers.

That loss to the Hokies was the first regular season defeat in the Urban Meyer era, a span of two-plus years and a 24-1 record later. He used it as a teaching lesson, and his team could not have responded better the following week. They beat Kent State 66-0 in an absolutely dominant effort, outgaining the Golden Flashes 628-126 for the game while forcing three turnovers. They had a bye week last week, which will only allow Meyer to further progress his team.

It was obviously going to take some time for freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett to get comfortable.  Meyer has done wonders with quarterbacks since becoming a head coach, and Barrett is a guy that he recruited who is a future start.  He started to show that against Kent State, completing 23 of 30 passes for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one interception.  Expect him to continue to improve by leaps and bounds as the season moves along.

Cincinnati clearly is not that good this season despite the 2-0 start. Its 58-34 win over Toledo was nowhere near the blowout it would indicate as it allowed 563 total yards to the Rockets and their backup quarterback. It only beat a terrible Miami of Ohio team by a final of 31-24 at home last week as a 30-point favorite. It only outgained the Redhawks 370-364 for the game as well. Tthe Bearcats really don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this one competitive.

Cincinnati has not been able to run the football on either Toledo or Miami Ohio, which both have soft defenses.  It is only averaging 123 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 per carry.  It relies heavily on the pass, which is good news for Ohio State backers.  The Buckeyes are only allowing 99 passing yards per game and 4.0 per attempt.

The Buckeyes have won 10 straight meetings between these instate foes.  The Bearcats are 0-9 all-time in Columbus, including a 37-7 loss to Ohio State in the most recent meeting in 2006.  They also lost 6-27 prior to that in 2004 in Columbus as well.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after gaining 6.75 or more yards and allowing 3.75 or less yards per play last game. The Buckeyes are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take Ohio State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -7

The No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (2-1) hit the road on Saturday, September 27th to take on the Washington Huskies (4-0) in a Pac-12 showdown. The Cardinal have won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a thrilling 31-28 home victory last year as a 9-point favorite.

The Cardinal had last week off following their 35-0 shutout of Army in Week 3 as a 30-point home favorite. The Huskies played Georgia State last week and wound up pulling away in the second half for a 45-14 victory to remain unbeaten on the season.

After losing to USC at home 10-13 in Week 2, the Cardinal know they cannot afford another loss if they want to win a third straight Pac-12 Title. That’s why they won’t be taking any teams lightly the rest of the way. There’s no way they should have lost to the Trojans in the first place as they outgained them 413-291 for the game, but committed two turnovers and simply beat themselves. They had a whopping nine drive that got inside the USC 30-yard line, so coming away with 10 points is unacceptable and highly unlikely.

Stanford got right with a 35-0 trouncing of Army in Week 3. It has since had a bye week to prepare for Washington, which did not have last week off. That extra week of preparation for the Cardinal will be a huge advantage heading into this one. It’s not like they need it as they have dominated the Huskies in recent years, winning five of the past six meetings in this series while going 4-2 ATS.

Washington is extremely fortunate to be 4-0 this season and is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It was outgained by 88 yards in a 17-16 win at Hawaii, outgained by 37 yards in a 59-52 home win over Eastern Washington, and it trailed Georgia State 14-0 at halftime last week.

Sure, the Huskies scored 45 points in the second half to pull away from Georgia State, but they were gift-wrapped most of those points due to four second-half turnovers by the Panthers. The Huskies only managed 336 total yards against an awful Georgia State defense.  This team is clearly overvalued right now due to the 4-0 record.

Simply put, Washington has no passing game. It couldn’t have faced an easier schedule to this point, yet it is only averaging 179 passing yards per game. It has been relying on its rushing attack, which has produced 239 yards per game.

That makes this a great match-up for Stanford, which has been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run throughout the years.  The Cardinal are only giving up 138 rushing yards per game 3.5 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have played both USC and and the triple-option attack of Army.

Stanford is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more. Washington is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a blowout home win by 28 points or more. The Huskies are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Cardinal are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Washington.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* FSU/NC State ACC Saturday No-Brainer on NC State +18.5

The No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (3-0) travel to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-0) on Saturday, September 27th. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 49-17 victory by the Seminoles last year as a 34-point favorite.

The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 23-17 overtime victory over the Clemson Tigers. They managed to gut out a win without Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who was serving a one-game suspension. The Wolfpack are coming off a 42-0 beat down of Presbyterian at home last week.

The Wolfpack have already exceeded their win total from last season. They haven’t exactly played the toughest of schedules en route to their 4-0 start, but Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are no pushovers, and this team has improved with every game. I was extremely impressed with their Week 3 road victory at South Florida by a final of 49-17 as they outgained the Bulls by 430 total yards for the game.

After having just 10 starters back in his first season on the job in 2013, head coach Dave Doeren has 14 starters back this year, and several of his recruits are getting playing time. Jacoby Brissett, the former Florida transfer, has taken his game to the next level this year with the Wolfpack. He is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,005 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 118 yards and a score.

Florida State came into this season way overvalued after winning the BCS Championship. That has proven to be the case as it has failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games. It only beat Oklahoma State 37-31 as an 18-point favorite, The Citadel 37-12 as a 58.5-point favorite, and Clemson 23-17 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Seminoles were actually outgained by 89 yards against the Tigers last week. This is a letdown spot for them because Clemson was considered their biggest threat to win the Atlantic Division.

No team plays Florida State tougher more consistently in recent years than NC State. That’s evident by the fact that the Wolfpack are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Seminoles. The home team has won each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 17-16 upset win by NC State in 2012 as a 17-point underdog. The Wolpack will be licking their chops at another opportunity to pull the upset against the defending national champs in this one.

The Seminoles are more vulnerable defensively than they were last year. They gave up 161 yards on the ground to Oklahoma State and 250 to The Citadel. They also allowed 306 passing yards to Clemson last week. NC State’s balanced offensive attack will give this FSU defense some troubles. The Wolfpack are averaging 249 yards on the ground and 253 through the air for  a whopping 502 total yards per game.

The Wolfpack are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdogs is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series.  The Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Raleigh.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP +28

Kansas State has been a covering machine with Bill Snyder as its head coach throughout the years.  However, it has done most of its damage in the role of the underdog, just as it did against Auburn last week in staying within the number despite losing the game.  This team isn't nearly as efficient at covering spreads in the role of the favorite, especially a four-TD favorite like they are today against UTEP.

That loss to Auburn puts the Wildcats in a serious hangover spot here.  They essentially gave that game away by missing three field goals and arguably outplayed the Tigers.  With a Big 12 game on deck against Texas Tech, they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.  I do not believe they are going to have the kind of focus it takes to win this game by more than four touchdowns and cover the spread.

Regardless of Kansas State's mental state, I believe UTEP would cover this number a lot more times than it wouldn't.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.  It was a rebuilding season last year for head coach Sean Kugler in his first season on the job as he had just 12 returning starters.  Now, he has 15 starters back and a more talented bunch than they get credit for.

UTEP beat New Mexico in the opener 31-24 on the road despite being a 10-point underdog while racking up 446 total yards in the win.  It then only lost at home to Texas Tech 26-30 as a 21-point underdog as the Red Raiders needed a late score in the 4th quarter and a defensive stop to sneak away with a victory. 

The Miners didn't let that loss bring them down as they rebounded nicely with a 42-24 road win over New Mexico State as a 10-point favorite while gaining 470 total yards in the win.  They have since had a bye week last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for Kansas State, which will be a huge advantage. 

This is a UTEP team that could legitimately make a bowl game this year for just the second time in the past nine seasons.  It has a relentless rushing attack that is averaging 317 yards per game and 6.2 per carry this season.  Aaron Jones is a name you should get familiar with.  His 184.0 yards per game average ranks second in the FBS, and he also has seven touchdowns this year while averaging 7.0 per carry.  Former Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers is doing an excellent job of running the offense at the quarterback position as well.

The Miners are one of only six FBS teams with just one giveaway and they've committed 12 penalties - tied for eighth-fewest.  "Those are two things we emphasize with our players everyday with ball security, getting the football, making sure we hang onto the football and the type of accountability we hold in our program carrying over to the discipline with penalties," Kugler said.

Plays against home favorites (KANSAS ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take UTEP Saturday.

20* Fresno/New Mexico Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State -4.5

There’s no question that three straight blowout losses by Fresno State to start the season are concerning. However, one look at the opponents they’ve lost to and I'm willing to give the Bulldogs a free pass. They have had to play road games at USC and Utah as well as a home game against Nebraska. Those three teams have combined to have just one loss so far this season, and they are clearly a class above the Bulldogs.

I like how this team responded as they easily could have been deflated. They bounced back with a resounding 56-16 win over Southern Utah last week while racking up 694 yards of total offense. That's the same Southern Utah team that only lost 19-28 at Nevada, which beat Washington State, which only lost by 7 points to Oregon.

It was clear that this offense would take time to gel with the loss of Derek Carr, but this is clearly a step in the right direction. Facing teams like Southern Utah and New Mexico will feel like a cakewalk after that brutal start to the season against tough competition.

New Mexico lost at home to UTEP 24-31 in its opener and at home to Arizona State 23-58 in Week 2. It barely escaped with a 38-35 win against a terrible New Mexico State team on the road last week. This team is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers, but it also may be disrespect toward Fresno State because of the 0-3 start.

Remember, the Bulldogs won the Mountain West last year and still have 13 starters back from that team. I still believe they will make a run at another MWC Title this year now that the schedule is much easier and they have had time to work out their problems.

After racking up 694 yards of offense last week, the Bulldogs have to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face a New Mexico defense that is giving up 41.3 points and 518.3 total yards per game. That’s really bad when you consider the quality of competition the Lobos have faced as both UTEP and New Mexico State don’t have that great of offenses. UTEP put up 446 yards, Arizona State 621 yards, and New Mexico State 488 yards on this Lobos’ defense.

New Mexico has some key injuries heading into this one.  Starting quarterback Cole Gautsche left last week's game against New Mexico State with a hamstring injury.  He leads the team with 237 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 11.8 per carry, so that would be a huge loss if he can't go.  It would be hard to believe he's recovered from a hamstring injury on a short week even if he does go.

Starting receiver Carlos Wiggins, who had 252 kick return yards including one for a score against the Bulldogs last year and was a 4th-team All-American kick returner, is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  Starting right tackle Johnny Vizcaino is expected to miss this game with a concussion.  Starting defensive end Nik D'Avanzo is doubtful with a knee injury.  Running back Teriyon Gipson, who has the most rushing attempts (35) on the team, is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Bulldogs beat New Mexico 69-28 last year for their 8th win in the last nine meetings in this series. They racked up 822 yards while holding the Lobos to just 316 yards, outgaining them by a ridiculous 506 total yards for the game.  I know that Fresno State is down a bit from last year, but the dominance in this series cannot be ignored.  While New Mexico catches many other teams off guard with its rushing attack, the Bulldogs will be prepared for it because they are used to seeing it.

Fresno State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bulldogs are also 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams who rush for 230 or more yards per game.  The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Appalachian State +19.5

This is the first season as FBS members for both Georgia Southern & Appalachian State. While Georgia Southern has had the luxury of using a scheme that nobody has been prepared for en route to their 2-2 start, they won’t have that same luxury against Appalachian State.

These are former Southern Conference rivals who are very familiar with one another. They combined to win or tie for 15 of the last 16 conference titles prior to last year.  The Mountaineers won’t be caught by surprise against the Eagles’ triple-option rushing attack like the rest of Georgia Southern’s opponents have been thus far in 2014.

Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 38-14 at home last year for its fifth win in six meetings in this series. It outgained the Eagles 515-363 for the game. That’s significant because both of these teams return pretty much intact as they each have 15 starters back from last season. The Mountaineers have nine starters back from that offense that put up 515 yards.

Georgia Southern is simply way overvalued here because it has opened the season 4-0 against the spread with close losses to both NC State and Georgia Tech on the road. While impressive, the betting public has taken notice, and this team cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself.

Meanwhile, Appalachian State is flying under the radar due to a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start to the season, including a blowout loss at Michigan and that one-point loss at Southern Miss.  I believe that loss to Southern Miss is stuck in the minds of bettors because the Eagles are not a very good team.

However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Mountaineers really dominated that game and should have won. They  outgained the Eagles 455-329 for the game, but gave it away by committing three turnovers.  They also lost 10 points in the kicking game, including a missed PAT with six seconds left that would have forced overtime. That loss is going to work in our favor here though because the Mountaineers will be motivated, plus now they’re catching a few more points than they should be.

Freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb is running away with the starting quarterback job.  He is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 427 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 113 yards this year.  Marcus Cox is one of the better running backs in the country that not too many folks know about.  He has rushed for 280 yards and four scores while averaging 5.3 per carry.

This is simply too many points for a rivalry game like this one.  Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are meeting on the gridiron for the 29th time.  Thanks to wins in eight of the last 11 matchups, the Mountaineers lead the all-time series 15-12-1.  They spent 21 seasons as Southern Conference foes from 1993-2013.  I'll take the points in this rivalry game between two very evenly-matched teams.  Take Appalachian State Thursday.

15* Oklahoma/WVU Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +8

Oklahoma (3-0) has lived up to the hype so far this season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 at home in its opener, went on the road and topped Tulsa 52-7, and then thumped Tennessee 34-10 last week as Bob Stoops had his way with another SEC opponent.

West Virginia (2-1) has played a very tough schedule in the early going and has done well for itself. It gave Alabama a run for its money in a 23-33 loss in the opener. It then shut out Towson 54-0 at home before earning a last-second road victory at Maryland (40-37) last weekend.

Without question, the Mountaineers are a completely different team than they were a year ago. They were atrocious to say the least last year, but they did beat then-No. 11 Oklahoma State at home 30-21 as a 19-point underdog. They also gave Oklahoma a run for their money in a 7-16 road loss as a 21-point underdog. After having just eight starters back last year, the Mountaineers have 13 back this season and are vastly improved.

The loss to Alabama was very impressive. They were a 22-point underdog and gave the Crimson Tide all they wanted in a 23-33 road loss. The 54-0 win over Towson was nice, but last week’s 40-37 win at Maryland was even better. This was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Mountaineers outgained the Terrapins 694-447 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to keep it close. Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards and four touchdowns in the win.

I believe Oklahoma is a bit overvalued here as more than a touchdown road favorite against WVU. The Sooners have been better than I expected to this point, but they also have played an extremely soft schedule. Their win over Tennessee last week wasn’t the 34-10 blowout it appeared to be as they took advantage of three Tennessee turnovers, including an interception that was returned 100 yards for a score as the Vols were going in to score in the fourth quarter.

Last year, as stated before, the Sooners only beat the Mountaineers 16-7 at home. The Sooners went on to win a BCS bowl game over Alabama, while the Mountaineers went 4-8 last year. Oklahoma only outgained WVU 435-387 for the game. Trevor Knight was awful in the win, completing just 10 of 20 passes for 119 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  Sure, Oklahoma is 2-0 against WVU as Big 12 opponents, but both have been by single-digits with their 50-49 road win in 2012 being the other.

Trickett did not play in that game for WVU last year, either. Trickett is a new QB this year, completing 75.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games.  The Mountaineers rank 13th in the country in total offense at 564.3 yards per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that they have played two great defenses thus far in Alabama and Maryland.

Oklahoma is 19-42 ATS in its last 61 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's revenge time in 2014 after back-to-back narrow losses in this series.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Dog Special on Georgia State +35

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have survived a couple of scares up to this point.  They beat Hawaii (17-16) on the road as a 17.5-point favorite, Eastern Washington (59-52) at home as a 17-point favorite, and Illinois (44-19) at home as a 13-point favorite.

Georgia State (1-2) could easily be 3-0 right now.  It beat Abilene Christian 38-37 as a 4-point home favorite, lost to New Mexico State (31-34) as a 3-point home favorite, and lost to Air Force (38-48) as a 12-point home dog.

I simply believe that Washington is overvalued right now.  This is a team that lost a ton of talent from last year's squad and is in rebuilding mode despite the 3-0 start.  Only beating Hawaii by a single point and Eastern Washington by a touchdown just goes to show how much work this team has to do to get better in Chris Petersen's first year on the job.

In fact, Washington was actually outgained by 88 total yards in that 17-16 win at Hawaii.  It was also outgained by 37 yards in its 59-52 win over Eastern Washington.  It only outgained Illinois by 113 total yards despite winning by 25 last week.  So, despite being 3-0, this team is actually being outgained 445-449 on average through three games, which isn't the sign of a good team.

Georgia State, meanwhile, has outgained all three of its opponents.  That's why it easily could be 3-0 right now.  It outgained Abiline Christian by 67 yards, NMSU by 21 yards, and Air Force by 10 yards.  That effort against a quality Air Force team really shows that this squad is capable of.  The Panthers are outgaining teams 524-491 on average for the season. Clearly, they have a potent offensive attack that is capable of putting up points on Washington and easily staying within this 35-point spread. 

Quarterback Nick Arbuckle has passed for 1,121 yards and seven touchdowns in three games.  He has three solid targets in tight end Joel Ruiz (15 receptions, 223 yards, two touchdowns) and wideouts Robert Davis (16-202) and LynQuez Blair (15-212-3).   Inside linebacker Joseph Peterson (39 tackles) and outside linebacker Jarrell Robinson (five tackles for loss, two sacks) are Georgia State’s most productive defenders.

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington, which has its Pac-12 opener on deck.  Not only is it their opener, but the Huskies will be playing Stanford, which is a game they will be looking ahead to.  They won't be motivated enough against Georgia State to win this game by more than five touchdowns.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia State give Washington a scare here.

The Panthers have turned the ball over eight times already, while the Huskies have turned it over only once.  The Panthers at least have an excuse for not opening 3-0 like they easily could have due to those turnovers.  The Huskies have no excuse for their close wins over Hawaii & Eastern Washington because they have committed just one turnover.  Meanwhile, a whopping 56 of their 120 points have come off of opponent's turnovers.

Georgia State is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 3-14 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +14

Missouri (3-0) has picked up right where it left off last year as SEC East champs. It beat South Dakota State 38-18 at home before playing a couple of tougher opponents. It thumped Toledo 49-24 on the road in Week 2 and then beat UCF 38-10 at home last week.

Indiana (1-1) beat Indiana State 28-10 at home in its opener. It then had a bye week before falling on the road to Bowling Green 42-45 last weekend.

This line opened at Missouri -16 and has been bet down to -13.5 as of this writing for good reason. I look for the Hoosiers to give the Tigers a run for their money Saturday afternoon and to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset. Indiana is a team that should be improved this year with 17 returning starters, while Missouri should be in rebuilding mode with only eight starters back.

I realize that doesn’t appear to be the case so far, but Missouri’s wins have been much closer than the final scores would indicate. It has yet to outgain a team by more than 100 yards, yet it has three victories of 20 or more points. It only outgained South Dakota State by 28 yards in the opener, which is absolutely terrible. It also only outgained Toledo by 94 yards in its 25-point win, and then UCF by 23 yards in its 28-point win. This team is living off of turnovers, which is a dangerous way to live.

Indiana's 18-point win over Indiana State was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It actually outgained the Sycamores by 396 total yards for the game. It also outgained Bowling Green by 11 yards last week in a losing effort. That’s the same Bowling Green team that won the MAC last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hoosiers were looking ahead to this game against Missouri as well knowing that they want payback after losing by 17 at home last year.

Indiana boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Indeed, it ranks 9th in the FBS in total offense at 574.0 yards per game. Nate Sudfeld is completing 71.2 percent of his passes, and Tevin Coleman is a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy. He has already rushed for 437 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.3 yards per carry through two games.

This is a huge letdown spot for Missouri, which has a game at South Carolina on deck, which will be its SEC opener. The Tigers cannot wait for a shot at revenge on the Gamecocks after losing to them in double-overtime at home last year. That lost nearly cost them the SEC East Title.  It's only human nature for them to let down here, and that's a big reason why the Hoosiers will cover.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +15

BYU (3-0) has taken care of business so far. It went on the road in its opener and beat UConn 35-10 before traveling to Austin and coming away with a 41-7 win over Texas. It also beat Houston by a final of 33-25 last week.

Virginia (2-1) gave UCLA a run for its money at home, but fell short by a final of 20-28. It then topped Richmond 45-13 at home before knocking off previously ranked Louisville 23-21 at home last week.

Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this year. You don’t nearly upset UCLA and then upset Louisville without being a quality team. The signs were there for a turnaround this year as Mike London has been one of the most underrated recruiters in his time at Virginia, but it just hasn’t led to results yet. It is clearly leading to results in 2014 as this is his best team yet with 17 returning starters from last year.

Without question, the Cavaliers have one of the elite defenses in the country, which is going to allow them to keep this game close against BYU. They held a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards and nearly won that game despite the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns. They also held a Bobby Petrino-coached Louisville offense to 282 total yards while forcing four turnovers last week.

The area of the Virginia defense that is going to pay off in this game is its front seven. The Cavaliers are only giving up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. That’s huge because BYU is primarily a running team that averages 259 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. They have a great running QB in Taysom Hill, but he’ll be forced to try and use his arm more in this one, which is his biggest weakness.

Virginia beat BYU 19-16 at home last year behind a great defensive effort. It allowed just 362 total yards in the game, forced three fumbles that were all recovered by BYU, and intercepted Hill once. Hill finished that game 13 of 40 passing for 175 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while rushing for just 42 yards on 11 carries. The Cavaliers are simply built to stop teams like BYU who rely heavily on the run just as they did last year. The scary thing is that their defense is five times better in 2014.

While the Cavaliers had plenty to celebrate with their win over Louisville, they quickly turned their attention to BYU with a players-only meeting.  "We just gotta stay hungry," receiver Canaan Severin told the school's official website. "Henry (Coley) just wanted to get that point across: You can't be satisfied just by getting that big win. We want more wins than that. We can talk about the win for a whole week, or we can prepare for BYU, and that's what we did."

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BYU is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I simply believe the Cougars are being overvalued here because they are in the national spotlight due to their 3-0 start, which has earned them the No. 21 ranking in the country.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina +3

The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) have certainly been impressive to this point.  They beat NC Central at home before giving South Carolina a run for its money on the road in a 23-33 loss.  They bounced back with one of the biggest upsets last week, topping Virginia Tech on the road 28-21.

North Carolina (2-0) has only played two games thus far, beating Liberty 56-29 and San Diego State 31-27 at home.  It has had a bye week to prepare for East Carolina heading into this one, which is a huge advantage.

I simply believe that the Pirates are overvalued here as the favorites because of their win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, VA Tech was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Ohio State the previous week.  Now, ECU is in a letdown spot off its win over the Hokies.  That's just the nature of college football folks.  ECU will not bring the same effort it had against VA Tech.

UNC, meanwhile, will be highly motivated for a win here after getting embarrassed by ECU at home by a final of 55-31 last year.  However, QB Marquise Williams did not play in that game against ECU.  All Williams did after being named the starter for the second half of the season was lead the Tar Heels to wins in six of their final seven games with the only loss coming by two points to Duke.

Williams is now 8-1 in his last nine starts for UNC.  He passed for 1,698 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions last year, while also leading the team in rushing (536 yards, 6 TD).  Williams is among 15 returning starters for a Tar Heels team that is expected to compete for an ACC Title.  He is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 424 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores thus far in 2014.

UNC is 12-3-1 all-time against ECU having NEVER lost two straight in this series.  East Carolina is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games.  The Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  ECU is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* Florida/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high in this rivalry between Florida (2-0) and Alabama (3-0) Saturday.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle similar to the games these teams have played in recent years.  The books are giving us an absolute gift here, so let's take advantage.

I believe the reason this number is inflated is because these teams have combined to go 4-1 to the over so far this season.  Last week, both played in high-scoring games.  Florida beat Kentucky 36-30, and Alabama beat Southern Miss 52-12.  However, that Florida game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation, and it went to three overtimes to reach that 66-point total.  They only had 40 combined points at the end of regulation.

Without question, these are two of the best defenses in the country.  I believe the perception of Alabama's defense is that it is not as good as in year's past because it gave up 23 points to West Virginia.  Well, after seeing the Mountaineers put up nearly 700 yards of offense and 40 points on a very good Maryland defense last week, it's clearly that the WVU offense is better than it gets credit for.  So holding them to 23 points is not bad.

Florida has been nothing short of dominant defensively each of the last six years.  It has held teams to an average of 314 or fewer yards per game in all six seasons.  This is an elite stop unit once again with seven starters back from last year.  Alabama has allowed 287 or fewer total yards per game in each of the past six seasons.  It has also allowed 14.3 or fewer points per game in all six years.

While these are all important facts as to why I like the UNDER, none is as important as how these teams have fared against one another in recent years.  Alabama & Florida have combined for 48, 37, 45, 51, 41, 38 & 41 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That makes for a perfect 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1999 pertaining to today's total set of 51 points, which is way too high.  They have combined to average 43 points per game in their last seven meetings.

Alabama is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  The Crimson Tide are 30-10 to the UNDER in their last 40 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Gators last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa Hawkeyes +7

Pittsburgh (3-0) has taken care of business thus far with a perfect start to the season. It beat Delaware 62-0 at home before going on the road to take down Boston College (30-20) and Florida International (42-25) each of the past two weeks.

Iowa (2-1) has gotten off to a shaky start to say the least. It escaped with a 28-20 home win over Northern Iowa before a 17-13 triumph at home against Ball State. Its luck ran out last week with a 17-20 home loss to Iowa State.

This line opened right around a pick ‘em before the season. I understand that everyone should adjust their power rankings based on what they see on the field, but I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here. They have swung the line a full seven points in Pittsburgh’s favor based on what’s happened so far. I still believe the Hawkeyes are the better team, and that will show on the field Saturday.

The betting public is way down on Iowa right now because it has survived a couple scares from Northern Iowa and Ball State, while losing to Iowa State. The thing is that this team has almost always played up and down to its competition ever since Kirk Ferentz has been there. The Hawkeyes will be hungry for a win after blowing a 14-3 lead to the Cyclones last week. They tend to respond well following a loss to Iowa State, going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in this situation.

Pittsburgh is getting way too much respect following its 3-0 start against very weak competition. Indeed, Delaware, Boston College and Florida International are all terrible teams. Sure, BC beat USC last week, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Trojans, who were coming off a win over Stanford the previous week and should have lost that game. The Panthers only beat FIU, which went 1-11 last season, by 17 as a 24.5-point favorite.

Both Iowa and Pittsburgh play very similar styles, which is why I believe this game will go right down to the wire, thus the value is with the 7-point underdog.  That has been the case the past two times that these teams have played each other, both of which have come since 2008.  The two meetings were decided by a combined five points with a 31-27 home win by Iowa (2011) and a 21-20 home win by Pitt (2008).

Iowa leans heavily on the run, averaging 36 carries per game. Pittsburgh relies even more heavily on it, averaging 53 per game. The Panthers only throw the ball 18 times per game thus far. Iowa’s biggest strength is its run defense, which is giving up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry.

Iowa is 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry. The Hawkeyes are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. great offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game. Iowa is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* UConn/South Florida AAC Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 46

I am taking the UNDER in this game between UConn and South Florida featuring two of the worst offenses in the country.  I look for a defensive battle in this game Friday night, which seems to be the case every time these AAC foes get together.

South Florida ranks 116th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense.  It is averaging just 300.3 total yards per game this season.  UConn has actually been worse on that side of the ball, ranking 118th in total offense at 289.3 yards per game.  If you like ugly football, then you'll love this game.

Both defenses have shown me enough to know that they are good enough to stop each other's offenses.  UConn only gave up 292 total yards last week against Boise State, which is saying a lot because the Broncos have a very good offense.  South Florida only gave up 24 points and 317 total yards to Maryland two weeks ago.  That's the same Terrapins offense that put up 37 points on West Virginia last week.

Now, back to the part where these teams always play in low-scoring games.  The winner of the last four meetings has scored 19 points or fewer.  They have combined for 23, 19, 26 and 35 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  In fact, six of their last seven meetings have seen 37 or fewer combined points.  I see no reason for that to change in 2014 with how putrid these offenses are again.

The UNDER is 8-0 in South Florida's last eight games following an over in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games after allowing 42 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Auburn/Kansas State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 65.5

I look for this contest between No. 5 Auburn and No. 20 Kansas State to be a defensive battle tonight.  Having two weeks to prepare for one another will certainly favor the defenses in this one.

Also, even though they never play each other, both teams will be very familiar with each other.  That's because Auburn and Kansas State both run similar systems.  They both love the read-option with quarterbacks who are great runners but not the best throwers, especially Nick Marshall of the Tigers.

Kansas State's defense has practiced against its first-team offense all offseason and into the regular season as well.  That will help its D get ready for what it will face Thursday.  The same can be said for the Tigers D as they are used to seeing their first-team offense.  That familiarity will make points hard to come by as both teams will be ready for what they see.

Kansas State has played some high-powered offenses through the years with low-scoring games being the result.  They played Oregon in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl in a 17-35 loss.  They played Arkansas in the 2011 Cotton Bowl and lost 16-29.  They also played Baylor last year and lost 25-35.  As you can see, all of those final scores would up finishing under 65.5 points.

Auburn is known for having an explosive offense, but when you look at its results from last year, it's clear to see that there is some value with the UNDER.  Indeed, Auburn and its opponents finished with 65 or fewer combined points in 10 of its 14 games last year.

Stopping the run is going to be the key to this game obviously.  Well, both teams are well-equipped to do so.  The Tigers held Arkansas to just 153 rushing yards in their opener, which is a huge accomplishment because the Razorbacks are one of the best running teams in the country.  For the season, the Tigers are giving up 109 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

Kansas State is only giving up 87 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry in 2014.  This is a team that has been dominant against the run over the past five years.  Indeed, it has allowed 139 or fewer rushing yards per game in four of the five years.  It has also allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of those five seasons.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Auburn's last seven games following a bye week.  I see no way the final combined score of this game exceeds 65 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER 65.5 points Thursday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +21

Oklahoma (2-0) has opened with a few cupcakes in non-conference play to start the season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 in its opener as a 34-point favorite, then came back with a resounding 52-7 road victory over Tulsa as a 24-point favorite last week.

Tennessee (2-0) looked real good in dismantling Utah State by a final of 38-7 as only a 3-point home favorite in its opener. It came back last week and topped Arkansas State 34-19 as a 16-point favorite. Now, it steps out of Knoxville for its first road game of the season.

I was real big on Tennessee coming into the season, and I have seen nothing to change my opinion that this is one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes that rank right up there with some of the elite recruiting teams in the SEC. That appears to already be paying off in the early going in 2014.

The Volunteers are getting solid production from their offense, averaging 36.0 points and 399.0 yards per game thus far. Justin Worley is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 520 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. He has some real playmakers outside in Marquez North and Von Pearson, who have combined for 15 receptions, 204 yards and three touchdowns. Jalen Hurd and Marlin Lane Jr. form a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Utah State and Arkansas State are no pushovers. The Aggies won 10 games and played in the MWC Title Game last year, while the Red Wolves won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title for a third straight season in 2013. I have been really impressed with this improved, athletic Tennessee defense in these two games. It has held those two teams to averages of 13.0 points and 287.5 total yards per game.

I had Oklahoma pegged as overvalued coming into the season after it beat Alabama in the BCS Sugar Bowl last year. The Crimson Tide were not up for that game at all. Oklahoma should not be this big of a favorite against an SEC team that is a sleeper to win the SEC East this season.

The Sooners have looked solid in wins over Louisiana Tech and Tulsa, but those two teams are inferior to the two that Tennessee has faced.  Louisiana Tech went just 4-8 last season and lost four times to teams that finished with losing records, while its four wins were against terrible competition.  Tulsa went just 3-9 last year as well.

Asking the Sooners to win by more than three touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much. Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 18-42 ATS in their last 60 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Tennessee is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 road games after one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Penn State/Rutgers Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -3

Penn State (2-0) has been impressive in the early going. It beat UCF over in Ireland as a 2.5-point underdog by a final of 26-24 in its opener. Then, it topped Akron 21-3 at home as a 14-point favorite last week.

Rutgers (2-0) pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season with a 41-38 win as a 7.5-point underdog in its opener at Washington State. It had a bit of a letdown last week against Howard at home, only winning by a final of 38-25.

I cannot give Rutgers that much credit for its 41-38 win at Washington State in its opener. That’s because the Cougars came back the next week and lost at Nevada to drop to 0-2 on the season, so they clearly aren’t very good this year.

That 13-point home win over Howard is pretty telling about Rutgers this year as they were a 38-point favorite in that contest. In fact, the Scarlet Knights were actually outgained 397-427 by Howard, or by 30 total yards. They arguably should have lost the game.

Penn State should have beaten UCF by more when you look at the box score. Indeed, it outgained UCF 511-246 for the game, but only won 26-24 because it committed three turnovers to try and give the game away. That +265 yardage differential couldn’t have been more impressive. This is a UCF team that played in the BCS Fiesta Bowl last year and beat Baylor 52-42. The Knights had nine starters back defensively this year as well, so to put up 511 yards against them is getting it done.

The Nittany Lions were nearly as dominant against Akron last week, and the final score was indicative of how dominant they were this time around. They won 21-3 while outgaining the Zips 425-277 for the game. The Zips are a team that I have playing in the MAC Title Game this year, so they are no pushovers. They even nearly upset Michigan on the road last year.

This would have been an even bigger blowout had the Nittany Lions not lost the turnover battle 3-0 to Akron. So, they have six turnovers already and something to work on for head coach James Franklin. If they quit turning it over, it’s scary how good this team could be.  The Nittany Lions have outgained their first two opponents 468-261.5 on average, while Rutgers had been outgained by its first two opponents 446.5-487.5.  I would argue Penn State has played the tougher schedule as well.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) – after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 78-35 (69%) ATS since 1992. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Rutgers is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 home games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 

The Nittany Lions have been informed earlier this week that they will be bowl eligible this season.  That fact should ignite a fire under this team as they enter Big Ten play.  Penn State is 22-2 in its 24 previous meetings with Rutgers, including 9-0 in nine all-time road meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +28

Notre Dame (2-0) couldn’t have looked more impressive in the early going. It beat Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite to open the season. Then, it shut out Michigan 31-0 as a 4-point favorite last week. That was the first time the Wolverines had been shut out since 1984.

Purdue (1-1) has opened the season with a pair of MAC teams. It beat Western Michigan 43-34 as a 7-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it fell to a better Central Michigan squad by a final of 17-38 as a 3-point home favorite.

The Fighting Irish are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off that huge win over Michigan last week, and it’s simply going to be tough to come back and give the kind of effort they gave last week en route to a 31-0 triumph. Meanwhile, the betting public has seen how impressive this team has looked, while they are not big on Purdue after the loss to Central Michigan last week. That has created some additional line value here on the Boilermakers.

Each of the last two years Notre Dame was expected to blow out Purdue and it did not. It won 20-17 as a 14-point home favorite in 2012, and then 31-24 as an 18-point road favorite in 2013. Four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less with Purdue going 4-1 ATS in those five contests. The Boilermakers just always seem to play the Irish tough, and I look for that to be the case again in 2014.

Purdue’s 17-38 loss to Central Michigan last week was nowhere near as big of a blowout as the final score would indicate. The Boilermakers were only outgained 326-333 for the game, but they gave it away by committing three turnovers.

Conversely, Notre Dame’s 31-0 win over Michigan was nowhere near the blowout it appeared. The Fighting Irish were actually outgained 280-289 for the game, but they were gifted four turnovers by the Wolverines.  The final score of that game should not have been 31-0 with only 280 yards of total offense for the Irish.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992. The Fighting Irish are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami (Ohio) +33.5

The Michigan Wolverines will suffer a hangover from their embarrassing 31-0 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last week.  They were shut out for the first time since 1984.  A win over Miami (Ohio) is not going to mean anything to people judging them.  They know their next chance to make an impression comes next week against Utah and then in Big Ten play.  That's why they won't be motivated to face the Redhawks.

Meanwhile, this is like the Super Bowl for Miami (Ohio).  They would like to take a page out of Akron's book, which went into Michigan as a 37-point underdog and arguably should have pulled off the upset last year.  The Zips lost by a final of 24-28.  Just like Akron last year, this is a Miami (Ohio) team coming off a disastrous season, but one that is vastly improved over 2013.

Indeed, the Redhawks went 0-12 last year and were rarely competitive.  However, they now have 15 starters back in 2014 and are in Chuck Martin's first year on the job.  I have actually been very impressed with what I have seen from this team despite the fact that they are 0-2 thus far.  They have shown me enough to know that they can stay within five touchdowns of Michigan on the road Saturday.

Marshall is a team that many expect to go 12-0 this season.  Well, Miami (Ohio) only lost to Marshall 27-42 at home as a 24-point underdog in its opener.  This was even a 27-35 game with just over two minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before Marshall iced it with a touchdown.  In fact, the Redhawks were only outgained 418-432 for the game.  Putting up 418 yards against this solid Marshall defense is no joking matter.

Obviously, a 10-17 home loss to Eastern Kentucky as a 6-point favorite last week is concerning.  However, a closer look into the box score shows that the Redhawks should have won that game, and won it running away.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky 419-280 for the game, but they let the Colonels in it by committing six turnovers.  This Miami offense is averaging 418.5 yards per game through two games to really show its improvement.

Teams with 5-plus turnovers the previous week who are on the road the next week have covered the spread 64.3% of the time since 1989.  Michigan is 22-43 ATS after a game where it committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Miami (Ohio) Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Texas Tech SEC vs. Big 12 No-Brainer on Arkansas +1

Texas Tech (2-0) has survived a couple of scares already in the early going. It beat Central Arkansas 42-35 as a 34-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it went into UTEP and came away with a 30-26 road victory as a 21-point favorite last week.

Arkansas (1-1) fought tough against Auburn in its opener before being blown out in the second half and losing 21-45 as a 17-point road underdog. The Razorbacks would take out their frustration last week, winning 73-7 at home over Nicholls State as a 41.5-point favorite.

I’m just not real big on the Red Raiders this year. They haven’t done anything in the first two games to change my opinion.  In fact, they have validated it despite their 2-0 start. They do have 13 starters back this season, including nine on offense, but their four starters back on defense are what really concern me. They haven’t been able to slow down Central Arkansas and UTEP in the first two games, and I look for Arkansas to run wild on them Saturday.

The Red Raiders gave up 178 rushing yards and 406 total yards to Central Arkansas in their 7-point opening victory as a 34-point favorite. Then, they gave up 277 rushing yards to UTEP and were fortunate to come away with a 4-point victory as they needed a late score to take the lead. So, Texas Tech has allowed an average of 227 rushing yards per game through its first two contests.

Arkansas thrives behind a rushing attack that will be one of the best in the country this season. This is a team that returns 14 starters after only having 10 back last year and enter Year Two in Bret Bielema's system. That includes the top two returning rushers in Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD). The Razorbacks have averaged 324 rushing yards per game and 9.4 per carry through their first two games this season.

The Razorbacks are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. I simply love the match-up with the Razorbacks’ rushing attack against the Red Raiders’ porous run defense.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +7

Virginia is a team I have pegged as one of the most improved in the country this season.  I have seen nothing to change my opinion on the Cavaliers yet.  Head coach Mike London is fighting for his job this year.  He continues to put together tremendous recruiting classes, but has gotten few results.  With 17 starters back this year, this is clearly his best team yet.

That was on display in the season opener as Virginia lost at home to UCLA 20-28 as a 19-point underdog.  However, the Cavaliers should have never lost that game because they gave up three defensive touchdowns.  They limited a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards, while racking up 386 yards of offense themselves.  The Bruins were one of the favorites to make the four-team playoff this year, so that performance shows you what this Virginia team is capable of.

Yes, Virginia was fortunate to beat Richmond in blowout fashion as that game was a lost closer than the final of 45-13 would indicate.  They won the turnover battle 7-2 to aid their cause.  Still, the Cavaliers were only 14.5-point favorites int hat game, and they won by 32 points.  That is an in-state rivalry game that can sometimes be closer than it should be, and Virginia really took it to them.

Louisville is overvalued right now due to back-to-back blowout home wins.  It is getting too much respect for its 31-13 home victory over Miami.  Sure, the defense looked solid in that contest, but I honestly believe that Miami is nowhere near as good as they get credit for.  Brad Kaaya is a terrible quarterback, and he could do nothing against Louisville's defense.  Keep in mind that Kaaya is a freshman who was playing in his first game as well.  Look for the Cardinals to struggle in their first road game of the season against the improved Cavaliers.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

The Maryland Terrapins should be a much heavier favorite Saturday against the West Virginia Mountaineers.  I believe WVU's close loss to Alabama has it overvalued right now, while Maryland's close win at South Florida last week has it undervalued.  It's the perfect storm, and thus oddsmakers are giving us a gift with the Terrapins as only 3-point home favorites here.

Maryland has been arguably the most unlucky team in the country when it has come to injuries over the last three seasons under Randy Edsall.  Finally, in his 4th year, he has everyone healthy.  This team made a bowl game last year with only 11 starters back and all the injuries, and now they have 17 starters back and are a sleeper in the Big Ten.

CJ Brown is one of the most underrated dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, and he has one of the best WR duos in the land in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.  This team committed six turnovers last week, yet still found a way to beat South Florida 24-17 on the road.  Obviously, it should have been a bigger blowout, but the fact that they won with six turnovers is impressive in and of itself.

West Virginia went just 4-8 last season and lost two the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Iowa State.  Sure, this team is expected to be improved this year, but not enough to justify this 3-point spread.  They played an Alabama team that had questions at quarterback in their opener, and the Crimson Tide still racked up 538 yards in their 33-23 win over WVU that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Maryland had lost seven straight to West Virginia prior to last year's 37-0 victory on a neutral field.  This game was over at halftime as the Terrapins took a 30-0 lead into the break before calling off the dogs in the second half.  The Terrapins held the Mountaineers to just 175 total yards of offense while forcing six turnovers.  They will be just as good if not better on D in 2014 with nine starters and 13 of their top 15 tacklers back.

Edsall is 31-16 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  The Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Maryland Saturday.

20* Baylor/Buffalo ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Baylor -34.5

Baylor (2-0) has gotten off to another dominant start in 2014. It has managed to go 2-0 against the spread with back-to-back home wins over SMU (45-0) as a 31.5-point favorite and Northwestern State (70-6) as a 47-point favorite.

Buffalo (1-1) has played in a couple of nail biters to open the season. It only beat Duquesne (38-28) as a 28.5-point home favorite in its opener. It then went on the road and lost to Army (39-47) as a 3-point underdog.

Oddsmakers simply cannot set the spreads high enough for the Bears. They are the new Oregon of college football. They somehow still do not get the respect they deserve despite being a clear contender to make the four-team playoff. Art Briles led them to a Big 12 Title last year with an 11-2 season. He has been burning up the recruiting trails, and this year’s team is every bit as good as the one he fielded last year.

This team beat Northwestern State 70-6 last week without starting QB Bryce Petty and top receiver Antwan Goodley. They racked up 720 yards of offense in the win. Backup Seth Russell went 16 of 25 passing for 438 yards and five touchdowns. Freshman KD Cannon caught six balls for 223 yards and three scores. Baylor has so much depth that it’s simply “next man up”.  However, Petty is expected to return this week, while Goodley is doubtful.

Buffalo is a team that I am really down on this year. It has shown me nothing thus far to change my mind. The Bulls actually made a bowl game last year with an 8-5 record, but after having 16 returning starters, they now only have 11 back this year. They lose two key players to the NFL in Khalil Mack (100 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 3 INT) and Branden Oliver (1,535  rushing yards, 15 TD). They are going to take a major step back this season.

That effort against Duquesne in their opener just showed how much trouble the Bulls are in this season. They actually trailed Duquesne 24-28 early in the fourth quarter. They allowed 322 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Dillon Buechel. They only outgained Duquesne 472-373 for the game as well. They were a 28.5-point favorite and won by just 10.

Last year, Baylor beat Buffalo 70-13. It outgained the Bulls 781-363 for the game. Petty and Russell combined for 452 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Baylor rushed for 329 yards as a team.  I expect a very similar result in the rematch considering the Bears are just as strong as they were last year, while the Bulls clearly are not.

Plays on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (BAYLOR) – after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992. The Bears are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. The Bulls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Baylor Friday.

20* Houston/BYU ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +19

I was big on BYU coming into the season and a little low on Houston.  I predicted BYU to win 10 games this year and still think they will.  I had Houston winning 9 games but regressing a little overall because of finishing +25 in turnover differential last year.

Well, BYU was certainly undervalued coming into the year as it has gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS through its first two games with blowout wins over UConn (35-10) and Texas (41-7).  Houston, meanwhile, was overvalued.  It has gone 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS with a loss to UTSA (7-27) and a win over Grambling (47-0) as a 49.5-point favorite.

Now, there is a ton of value to be had with backing Houston because the betting public is drooling over BYU after two straight blowout wins and covers.  The betting public is off of Houston after an 0-2 ATS start.  This has forced the oddsmakers to set the number tonight much higher than it should be.

Keep in mind that BYU has beaten two teams that had terrible quarterback play to aid their cause.  UConn is clearly an awful team this year, and Texas is down again, especially without QB David Ash, who missed the BYU game with a concussion.  That also makes this a bit of a letdown spot for BYU off such a big road win over the Longhorns.

Houston gave away the game to UTSA by committing six turnovers. It actually held the roadrunners to 263 total yards in the loss. You have to remember that this Houston team came very close to winning the American Athletic last season. It went 8-4 during the regular season with all four losses coming by 7 points or less. Those losses came to some very good teams in BYU (46-47), UCF (14-19), Louisville (13-20) and Cincinnati (17-24).

With 17 starters back, this Houston team is a real contender to win the AAC. All of these players will be out for revenge from that 1-point loss to the Cougars last season. John O’Korn, who completed 29 of 45 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, is back as the starting quarterback this year. Also back is Daniel Spencer and Deonte Greenberry at receiver. These two combined for 18 receptions, 254 yards and three touchdowns in that loss to BYU.

BYU is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games following a two-game road trip. BYU is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Plays against home favorites (BYU) – after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Houston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take Houston Thursday.

15* LA Tech/North Texas Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +4

While both teams blew out the opposition last week, I clearly come away more impressed with Louisiana Tech’s performance than that of North Texas. The Bulldogs were a 15.5-point road underdog to a very good Louisiana team that is expected to win the Sun Belt this year. They won 48-20 in dominant fashion, outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 533-415 in the process.

The Bulldogs finally have a solid team under second-year head coach Skip Holtz. He only had seven starters back last year during a 4-8 campaign, and now he has 13 back in 2013. He also adds in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns against Louisiana. Also, Kenneth Dixon is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. He rushed for 184 yards and two touchdowns on only 12 carries against the Rajin’ Cajuns.

I am way down on North Texas this year as this is a rebuilding year for Dan McCarney. He got the Mean Green to a bowl game last year for the first time since 2004, but after having 17 starters back in 2013, they only have nine starters back this year. They only gained 94 total yards in the 7-38 loss to Texas. Their 43-6 win over SMU was also closer than the final score would indicate. They only gained 353 yards of total offense in the win, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.

Last year, North Texas did beat an inexperienced Louisiana Tech team 28-13. However, it scored 28 unanswered points in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. In fact, the Bulldogs outgained the Mean Green 404-386 for the game, which is saying something considering how down they were last year, while the Mean Green were extremely experienced. They lost the turnover battle 3-1, which proved to be the difference. The Mean Green were also aided by a defensive touchdown.  It's revenge time this year for the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games. Louisiana Tech is 14-5-1 ATS its last 20 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. North Texas is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* CFB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on South Carolina -15

This line is a complete overreaction from South Carolina getting destroyed by Texas A&M at home by a final of 28-52.  The Aggies were clearly better than people believed they would be, but obviously the Gamecocks weren't ready for what they say.  That was a tough game to prepare for because the Aggies have one of the best offensive minds in all of college football in Kevin Sumlin.  They will be much more prepared for East Carolina, and they'll be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory.

I still look for South Carolina to compete for an SEC East Title this year.  It has the talent to do so with 14 returning starters from a team that went 11-2 last year, which was the third straight season that Steve Spurrier has led this team to an 11-2 campaign.  This team has been on the brink of winning the SEC each of the last three years, and that doesn't change in 2014 after just one poor performance.

East Carolina is the team that is in rebuilding mode this year.  It has just nine returning starters in all.  It loses leading rusher Vintavious Cooper (1,193 yards, 13 TD) as well as three starters along the offensive line.  The Pirates only have 38 career starts returning along the O-line, so I look for South Carolina's athletes up front to dominate the line of scrimmage.  They only have four starters returning on defense and lose eight of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago.

The last time these teams played in 2012, South Carolina rolled to a 48-10 home victory as a 21-point favorite.  Dylan Thompson, who is now the starting quarterback for the Gamecocks, actually started in that game as a sophomore.  He threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Gamecocks to a dominant victory.  They racked up 528 yards of total offense in the win and led 35-0 late into the 3rd quarter.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

25* Michigan State/Oregon Top-10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +13.5

Michigan State had the top defense in the entire country last year.  It is the type of defense that will give Oregon fits, just like Stanford has the last two years.  Indeed, the Cardinal held the Ducks to 17 points in 2012 and 20 points in 2013.  The Spartans are fully capable of keeping this high-powered Ducks' offense in check, and that's precisely what I expect to happen Saturday.

I also like the match-up of Michigan State's offense against Oregon's defense.  The Spartans brought back seven starters on offense, including QB Connor Cook and RB Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,422 yards and 18 touchdowns last year.  Cook saved his best two performances for last, throwing for a combined 636 yards and five touchdowns in the wins over Ohio State and Stanford in the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl, respectively.

Oregon's defense is its biggest weakness.  It only brings back five starters on defense and loses three of its top five tacklers.  I look for the Spartans to control this game with their ground attack, and for Cook to continue to play his best on the biggest of stages.  He completed 12 of 13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-7 win over Jacksonville State in the opener.

I just think this Spartans team is not getting the credit they deserve, which has simply carried over from last season.  They were a 13-17 loss to Notre Dame away from going a perfect 14-0 and possibly playing in the BCS Championship.  They even had several calls not go their way in that loss to the Fighting Irish.  They have only lost two road games over the last two years, and those came by a combined six points to Notre Dame & Michigan.

I also believe that Oregon is on the decline.  It lost to Stanford last year and then proceeded to lose to Arizona by a final of 16-42.  It was fortunate to win the season finale against Oregon State, winning that game by a single point after a late two-point conversion.  Mark Helfrich really appeared to have lost his team in the second half of the season.  He is not even half the head coach that Chip Kelly was, and that is already starting to be felt.

Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Spartans.  This will be their coming out party Saturday as it wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -13

Kentucky is a team on the rise in the world of college football.  Sure, this team went 2-10 last year in Mark Stoops' first year on the job in 2013, but that's not telling of what this team is going to do in the coming years.  That's because Stoops has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes, and the talent he's bringing to Lexington is going to start paying off in a big way sooner rather than later.

Stoops has a whopping 15 returning starters to work with, and these guys will be much more accustomed to his systems in Year Two.  That already started to show in the opener as the Wildcats rolled to a 59-14 win over Tennessee-Martin as a 21.5-point favorite.  The Wildcats outgained the Skyhawks 656-398 for the game.

This was a 52-0 game before the Wildcats really called off the dogs and allowed the Skyhawks to pile up some stats in garbage time.  Indeed, 175 of UTM's 398 yards came in the 4th quarter, meaning that they only had 223 yards through the first three quarters.  QB Patrick Towles completed 20 of 29 passes for 377 yards and a touchdown in the win.  Baylon Heard rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on only two carries as well.

Ohio did make a bowl game with a 7-6 record last year, but it looked terrible in some of its losses.  It suffered blowout losses to Louisville (7-49), BUffalo (3-30), Bowling Green (0-49) and Kent State (13-44).  It only has 12 starters back this season, including just four on offense.  It loses all-time leading passer Tyler Tettleton, leading rusher Beau Blankenship, and four of its top five receivers.  I was not impressed with its 17-14 road win at Kent State in the opener thanks to a last-second field goal.

Ohio is 0-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.  The Bobcats are 14-32 ATS in their last 46 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. MAC opponents.  This will be Kentucky's 5th straight year hosting a MAC foe, and it has won each of the last four by an average of 30 points per game.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Fresno State/Utah No-Brainer on Utah -12

The Utah Utes are coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.  They did go 8-5 in their first year in the Pac-12 in 2011, but it has been downhill since.  I look for this team to contend for a bowl game this year as they should be improved with 12 starters and a lot of talent back under head coach Kyle Whittingham.

This team just finds a way to compete when playing in Salt Lake City.  Last year, the Utes did go just 4-3 at home, but their three losses came to Oregon State (48-51, OT), UCLA (27-34) and Arizona State (19-20) by a combined 11 points.  Those were three of the better teams in the Pac-12.  They also beat then-No. 5 Stanford (27-21), which went on to win the Pac-12.

Under new offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, the Utes had three touchdown drives that lasted under 42 seconds in their 56-14 win over Idaho State last week.  The new up-tempo scheme led to 589 total yards of offense for Utah, while the defense held Idaho State to 337 yards.  Travis Wilson completed 13 of 18 passes for 265 yards and a score.  The rushing attack produced 238 yards and 5.2 per carry.

Fresno State will struggle with Utah's up-tempo attack.  It did last week against USC, losing by a final of 13-52.  The Bulldogs' defense allowed an incredible 37 first downs and 701 total yards to the Trojan's new high-tempo offensive.  In fact, the Trojans ran a whopping 105 plays in the game.  The Utes should use the same blueprint to come away with a blowout victory of their own against the hapless Bulldogs. 

Fresno State clearly misses all-time leading passer Derek Carr as its new quarterbacks in Brian Burrell and Brandon Connette were picked off four times and threw for just 160 yards.  The offense managed just 317 total yards and 17 first downs against the Trojans.  Look for them to struggle against what will be a very solid Utah defense in this one.

Whittingham is 41-14 at home as the coach of Utah.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 50 points or more.  Utah is 51-31 ATS in its last 82 non-conference games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss.  Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Pac-12 foes.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.    The Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. MWC opponents.  Take Utah Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Upset Shocker on Toledo +4

There is a reason that this line has dropped from Toledo +6 to Toledo +4 and even +3.5 in some places as of this writing.  The sharp money is on Toledo, and it should be because this team is going to win outright Saturday.  I'll simply take the points for a little extra insurance.

I am very big on Toledo this season as I have it winning the MAC.  The reason is because it is one of the most experienced teams in the conference with 16 returning starters.  I have no doubt that this is the most talented team in the conference as well, and they are capable of beating an SEC program, even Missouri, a team that won the SEC East last year.

The Rockets return seven starters from an offense that put up 33.0 points and 447 yards per game last year.  Philip Ely is an Alabama transfer at quarterback who is underrated coming into the season.  Ely completed 24 of 34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns in a 54-20 home victory over New Hampshire in the opener.  Kareem Hunt is the top returning rusher, and he ran for 136 yards and two scores in the win.

The defense has a whopping nine starters back and will be one of the most improved in the country.  This unit only had three starters back last year and allowed 28.6 points per game.  That average should fall way down in 2014 with those nine starters back, including five of the top six tacklers.  The top two tacklers in Junior Sylvestre (118 tackles, 5 sacks) and Chase Murdock (109 tackles, 4 sacks) return.  The Rockets have the best O-Line and best D-line in the MAC.

I am way down on Missouri this year, and for good reason.  The Tigers lose almost everyone from last season's miraculous run to the SEC Title.  They are one of the least-experienced teams in the SEC with only eight starters returning.  They lose leading rusher Henry Josey, their top three receivers, and five of their top seven tacklers defensively.  This team could go from first to worst in the SEC East this season.

I was not at all impressed with Missouri's 38-18 home win over South Dakota State as a 25-point favorite in its opener.  It only outgained the Jackrabbits 393-365 for the game, or by a total of just 28 yards.  That will be a sign of things to come for this team because they were expected to crush SDSU, but the final score was not indicative of how close this game really was.  Maty Mauk only threw for 178 yards in the win, while the defense allowed 23 of 32 passing for 246 yards to the Jackrabbits.

Toledo play Missouri just about as tough as anyone last year.  It did lose 23-38 on the road as a 15-point underdog, but that final score was not indicative of how close the game actually was.  Indeed, the Rockets actually outgained the Tigers 387-384 for the game.  As you know, the Tigers went on to play in the SEC Championship.  With Toledo much-improved this season, and Missouri way down, I look for Toledo to pull off the upset at home in the rematch.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Toledo is 54-34 ATS in its last 88 home games.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* Washington State/Nevada ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -3.5

Washington State made its first bowl game since 2003 last year in just the second season under head coach Mike Leach.  He guided the Cougars to a 6-7 finish after a fluke loss to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl where they simply gave the game away in the closing minutes.  Still, it was a step in the right direction for this team, which brings back 14 starters this year.

Obviously, the Cougars did not get off to the start they wanted this season with a 38-41 home loss to Rutgers.  They again fell apart late in that game, but I think Rutgers is a better team than it is getting credit for heading into this season.  The Scarlet Knights brought back 16 starters this year, making them one of the more experienced teams in the country.

Still, when you look at the box score, the Cougars really should have won that game.  They racked up 538 yards of total offense, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 42 yards for the game.  Returning starter Connor Halliday had a monster game offensively, completing 40 of 56 passes for 532 yards and five touchdowns with one interceptions in the loss.  Four different receivers had 83-plus yards receiving, so he will certainly have the luxury of spreading the ball around this season.

Nevada is getting too much respect here.  It went just 4-8 last year and won't be much better in 2014.  Its performance against Southern Utah was worse than Washington State's against Rutgers.  The Wolf Pack only won by a final of 28-19 at home against this FCS opponent despite being a 24.5-point favorite. 

The Wolf Pack had one of the worst defenses in the country last year, giving up 34.4 points and 505 total yards per game.  Sure, they have 10 starters back on defense, but that's not necessarily a good thing after last season's disaster and lack of talent.  I look for Halliday and company to score at will on this putrid defense.

Washington State is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Washington State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wolf Pack are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Nevada is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON ST) - first 2 weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a losing record last season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington State Friday.

20* Arizona/UTSA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona -7

The Arizona Wildcats are on the rise under head coach Rich Rodriquez.  He has guided them to back-to-back 8-5 seasons that both ended in bowl victories the past two years.  Now, he should have his best team yet in 2014 as this team is a sleeper to compete for a Pac-12 South Title.  They have 13 returning starters and only 19 lettermen lost.

I was very impressed with Arizona's 58-13 victory over UNLV in the opener.  The Rebels are no juggernaut, but they did make a bowl game last year and are better than they get credit for.  The Wildcats simply dominated them, gaining 787 yards of total offense while giving up just 371, outgaining them by a whopping 416 total yards.

The Wildcats did have to replace their starting quarterback this year, but that's clearly a bonus as BJ Denker wasn't very good as a passer.  Freshman QB Anu Solomon is a name that you need to keep an eye on.  He threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards against UNLV.  Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson combined for 228 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries.  The Wildcats rushed for 353 yards as a team.  They have one of the best sets of WR's in the country for Solomon as well.

UTSA is getting too much respect here due to its 27-7 win at Houston last week.  I was on UTSA in that game, but I'm willing to admit that the Cougars simply gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  UTSA lost its best player in QB Eric Soza from last year.  He completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 369 yards and a team-high seven scores in 2013. 

The new quarterback is Tucker Carter, who I was not impressed with against Houston.  Carter only threw for 121 yards on 24 attempts in the win.  UTSA's offense is limited with Carter at the helm, and it will not create enough explosive plays in the passing game to keep up with this high-powered Arizona offense.

Last year, Arizona beat UTSA by a final of 38-13 at home as a 24-point favorite.  Now, Arizona is only a 7-point road favorite this time around, which is a 17-point swing based on home/away.  That alone tells you that there is some value on the Wildcats in the rematch, especially considering they are a better team than they were last year, while UTSA is probably about on par with how they were last year now that they lost Soza.

Larry Coker is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games after a win by 17 or more points as the coach of UTSA.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Expect another blowout in their favor in this one.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Miami/Louisville ACC Opener on OVER 54

The Louisville Cardinals and Miami Hurricanes play in a rematch from the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Cardinals won 36-9 in an absolutely dominant performance last season.  They outgained the Hurricanes 554-174 for the game.

Louisville will be a completely different team this year under new head coach Bobby Petrino.  It will be an up-tempo offense that will produce more points than last year, but that will cause the defense to be on the field more, and there's no question that the stop unit won't be as good as it was in 2013.

The Cardinals only return four starters on defense and lose six of their top eight tacklers.  That includes both Preston Brown (94 tackles, 12.5 for loss) and Calvin Pryor (75 tackles, 3 INT), who each moved on to the NFL.  There's no question they will take a big step back defensively this year.

The offense is in good hands with seven starters back.  The Cardinals have one of the best WR corps in the entire country with four of their top five guys back from last year.  Will Gardner is the new starting QB, and he has been getting rave reviews after throwing for over 500 yards in the spring game.

Miami will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, but freshman Brad Kaaya has won over his teammates.  Duke Johnson, who rushed for 920 yards and six touchdowns last year in only seven games, was on pace for nearly 2,000 rushing yards.

Johnson said Kaaya has done a good job taking command of the huddle. “If you didn’t know Brad, you wouldn’t know that he’s a freshman,” Johnson said. “He comes in, he demands … he lets everybody know what’s the play, what he needs done."

Miami's defense was not very good last year, giving up a whopping 426 yards per game.  This stop unit won't be much better in 2014, either.  I think both defenses are at a disadvantage because they will be facing offenses that they have never seen before.  After all, this is their first year together as ACC foes.

The Hurricanes' defensive coordinator even had praise for Kaaya.  “His poise and his mechanics [are what stand out],” Mark D’Onofrio said. “He's very polished — just being able to handle it all and how he looks and he moves in the pocket. It doesn’t look like a young guy doing that. He’s very mechanically sound, like he’s been doing this for a long time.”

The OVER is 7-1 in Hurricanes last 8 games in September.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last four conference games.  Expect plenty of offensive fireworks tonight to push the final combined score of this game over the 54-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* SMU/Baylor Sunday No-Brainer on Baylor -33

The Baylor Bears are coming off a Big 12 Title after going 11-2 in 2013. They needed a win over Texas in the finale, and got it by a final of 30-10 to secure the conference championship. They went on to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, but lost 42-52 despite being a 16-point favorite. It was a very successful season for head coach Art Briles and company. He has done a tremendous job in recruiting as the Bears now figure to be a Big 12 contender for years to come with him leading the way.

June Jones always seems to get the most out of his teams. He has only had four losing seasons in his 15 years as a head coach, but one of those came last year as the Mustangs went just 5-7 overall. Their only wins came against Memphis, Montana State, Tempe, UConn and South Florida as all four of those FBS teams finished with losing records. They did only lose 13-17 to UCF in the finale to show what they were capable of against one of the best teams in the country.

The Bears have been one of the best home teams in the country over the last three years. They have gone 19-1 at home over that time. Last year, they outscored opponents by an average of 61-13 at home while going a perfect 7-0. They are moving up in the world as well because they just got a new stadium that will be introduced Sunday night for the SMU game, so the place should be rocking.

This team led the country in both scoring offense (52.4 ppg) and total offense (619 ypg) last year. What I love about them is that they don’t take their foot off the gas, which allows them to cover big spreads like this one with relative ease. Bryce Petty is a clear Heisman Trophy contender after throwing for 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns against three interceptions last year. He has the best wide receiver corps in the country as well. The defense is a bit of a concern with only four starters back, but the D-line is loaded with talent and this unit will be better than expected, just as they were last year when they gave up 23.5 points per game.

This is a clear rebuilding year for SMU and head coach Jones. They only have 12 starters back and lose a lot. They part ways with QB Garrett Gilbert, who threw for 3,528 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions last year. They also lose their top two receivers in Jeremy Johnson (112 receptions, 1,112 yards, 6 TD) and Keenan Holman (67, 1,037, 9 TD). The defense only has six starters back after giving up 33.3 points and 413 yards per game. SMU was blown out by both Texas A&M (13-42) and TCU (17-48) last year. I look for Baylor to easily win this game by 35-plus points.

Plays on home favorites (BAYLOR) – incredible offense from last season – averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bears are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. The Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Baylor Sunday.

20* Utah State/Tennessee Sunday Night ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5

Tennessee is coming off three straight losing seasons and desperately wants to get back to a bowl game in 2014. It went just 5-7 last year with three of its wins coming against Austin Peay, Western Kentucky and South Alabama. It only went 2-6 in SEC play, though it did pull off one of the bigger upsets of the season within the conference by beating South Carolina at home. This is a big year for head coach Butch Jones in his second season with the Volunteers.

Utah State has been one of the more underrated teams in college football over the last two seasons. After going 11-2 in 2012 under Gary Andersen, Matt Wells inherited a talented team that finished 9-5 and played in the Mountain West Title Game. There, the Aggies gave Fresno State all they could handle, but ultimately fell 17-24. They went on to beat Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl for a nice 6-1 finish over their final seven games.

Jones has been stockpiling talent at Tennessee in his two years on the job. Fans have to be excited about the fact that he has been able to recruit with some of the best programs in the country. Indeed, the Volunteers came away with the fifth-best recruiting class in the land for 2014. This team is very close to making some noise within the SEC, and that could happen as soon as this season.

It is concerning that they only return 10 starters this year, but there are several very highly touted players ready to step in and start. I believe this team is going a bit under the radar because they have stunk up the joint the last three years, but that win over South Carolina last season shows what they are capable of. Jones will have his team ready to go in Week 1.

The Vols are showing excellent value as a small home favorite in this one. After all, Tennessee has won 19 straight home openers.  The defense returns five of its top six tacklers and will be one of the most improved units in the country.  The offense should be much better as well because QB Justin Worley is back and he has every one of his top receivers from last year back.

Utah State’s run as a sleeper is over. It was a team to be reckoned with over the last two seasons, able to play with almost anyone in the country. Now, the Aggies are in clear rebuilding mode as they return just eight starters this season. They do have Chuckie Keeton back at quarterback, but one player does not make a team. I look for the offense to take a big step back with only three starters returning.  They break in four new starters along the offensive line, lose leading rusher Joe DeMartino (1,221 yards, 13 TD), and each of their top two receivers in Travis Reynolds (51, 832, 4 TD) and Travis Van Leeuwen (52, 661, 3 TD).

The Aggies' defense figures to take a step back as well with the losses of seven of their top 11 tacklers. They only return five starters on this side of the ball and lose many of their top players, including leading tackler Jake Doughty (148 tackles, 12 for loss), Maurice Alexander (80 tackles, 9 for loss) and Nevin Lawson (57 tackles, 17 passes defended, 4 INT).  Wells benefited from the players that Andersen was able to recruit, but he won’t reap the rewards in his second season nearly as much as he did in his first.  The fact of the matter is that this is a very inexperienced team that won't be able to compete with a team from the SEC in the opener.  Bet Tennessee Sunday.

15* LSU/Wisconsin ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU -5

I have a lot of respect for Gary Andersen and the job he has done at both Utah State and in his first year at Wisconsin last season.  The Badgers went 9-4 last season with all three of their regular season losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Then, they fell to SEC foe South Carolina 24-34 in the Capital One Bowl, and I believe that will be a sign of things to come when they face LSU to kick off their 2014 season.

Wisconsin isn't even as strong of a team as it was a year ago.  It only returns 10 starters in all this year, including three on defense.  Their stop unit takes a tremendous hit with the loss of leading tackler Chris Borland, whose 112 tackles were 49 more than second place.  He was the heart and soul of this defense and will be missed badly.  In fact, the Badgers break in seven new starters among the front seven, so look for LSU to run it down their throats all game long.

The Tigers have averaged the fourth-best recruiting class in the country over the last three years.  They are stocked with talent at the running back position, so the loss of Jeremy Hill won't be felt.  They averaged 202 yards per game and 5.0 per carry on the ground last season, and those numbers should be even better in 2014.  That's especially the case with four starters and 75 career starts returning on the offensive line, which is arguably Les Miles' best unit in his 10 years here.

I would be lying if I said that Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin's offensive line don't scare me, but if anything, that is a wash against LSU's defense.  The Tigers return seven starters on D after having just four back on that side of the ball last year.  They have allowed 3.9 or fewer yards per carry in each of the last seven seasons, which is all of the data I currently have in front of me.  Most likely, that streak extends back further.

How I see this game playing out is LSU taking a nice-sized lead in the first half and forcing Wisconsin to abandon its game plan of running the football.  The Badgers not proven they can throw the football consistently, and now they'll be without arguably their most important player on offense last year in Jared Abbrederis.  He caught 78 balls for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns last season and constantly bailed out the offense when they needed a big play in the passing game.  In fact, the Badgers lose each of their top three receivers from last year.  Their only strength is their running game, and that's not enough to beat this stacked LSU team, or to even keep the game relatively close.

This will be the fourth time in the last five years that LSU opens with a tough neutral site game.  They are 3-0 in their last three with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game.  They beat then-No. 18 UNC (30-24) in 2010, then-No. 3 Oregon (40-27) in 2011, and then-No. 20 TCU (37-27) in 2013.  Chalk up four straight victories by 6 points or more to open the season on neutral sites for the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

**Due to an error in one of the odds feeds this game switched in our system to another, so we are re-releasing it just so it grades correctly***

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Louisiana Tech +38

Oklahoma is way overvalued heading into the 2014 season because of its win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.  I believe the Sooners caught the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot because they had played in the BCS Championship the two previous years, and they clearly were not up for that game.  While I do believe that Oklahoma should be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year, it isn't as clear-cut as most folks in the media are making it out to be.

Trevor Knight played great down the stretch for the Sooners, but he's still just a sophomore and won't be as good as everyone is anticipating.  That's especially the case when you consider that the offense only have five starters back on this side of the ball and will be breaking in several new skill players.  I just don't believe that the Sooners have the offensive firepower to cover this 38-point spread against what will be an improved Louisiana Tech team.

Indeed, the Bulldogs will be much better in Skip Holtz's second season.  They should be one of the most improved teams in the country statistically.  They had gone 17-8 over two seasons before Holtz took over.  He was left with nothing as the Bulldogs had just seven starters back last year.  Now they have 13 starters back in 2014 and many of Holtz's own recruits in place to get significant playing time.  There will be value in backing this team in the early going because the public perception on them is down after last season's disaster.

I like the addition of former Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback.  He'll have the luxury of handing the ball off to both Kenneth Dixon (917 yards, 6.1/carry) and Tevin King (539 yards, 5.8/carry), who were bright spots on an otherwise down season last year.  The defense held its own last season in allowing a respectable 26.3 points per game despite having just four starters back.  This unit should be even better in 2014 with seven starters and five of the top six tacklers back.

Oklahoma will be without its leader defensively.  Middle linebacker Frank Shannon has been suspended for the opener, and possibly the entire season. He not only led the team in tackles (92) last year, but he's also the vocal leader of this stop unit, and the man calling the shots in the middle.  I simply believe this is a case of the betting public giving Oklahoma too much respect coming into the season, and Louisiana Tech not enough.

Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA) – in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 63-25 (71.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn SEC Opener on Arkansas +19

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014 from a statistical standpoint.  Bret Bielema had his hands full in 2013 with just 10 starters back.  They went just 3-9, and after opening 3-0, they would lose each of their final nine games while going winless in SEC play.  While that sounds like an awful finish, I was actually impressed by a couple of their losses late in the season.

Indeed, the Razorbacks only lost 24-34 at Ole Miss as a 17-point underdog, 17-24 (OT) at home to Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog, and then 27-31 at LSU as a 26-point underdog.  They actually had LSU down 27-24 with only one minute remaining, but the Tigers drove the length of the field and stole victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now, with 14 starters returning in the second year of Bielema's system, the Razorbacks are going to sneak up on some teams this year.  They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back with Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD).  Three starters and 51 career starts return along the offensive line.  QB Brandon Allen will be better than he was a year ago.  The defense will be improved as well with seven starters and five of the top seven tacklers back.

I am not high on Auburn at all this year.  They are way overvalued after miraculously making the national title game last season.  However, they won six games by 8 points or less, so they were very fortunate to get that far.  They wound up as SEC Champs, but there were a few teams that I would rank as better teams than them last year, including Alabama and LSU. 

The Tigers do have 14 starters back, but will be missing a key one in the opener.  QB Nick Marshall will be suspended for at least part of the game as he will not start.  He was cited in July for possession of marijuana.  It's not clear how much he will play, but he at least will not start.  Also, starting CB Jonathan Mincy will not start the game either because of the same offense.

These teams played last year with Auburn winning by a final of 35-17 on the road.  However, a closer look shows that game was much closer than the score would indicate.  The Razorbacks were only outgained 346-366 for the game, or by 20 total yards.  They actually gained seven more first downs than Auburn in the loss.  The difference in that game was that Arkansas finished -3 in turnover differential, which is unlikely to happen again.

This is an Auburn defense that gave up 421 total yards and 162 rushing yards per game last year.  Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers to keep this one close.  After all, they rushed for 222 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry against the Tigers last season.  This game will be much closer than expected, and I wouldn't be surprise to see it as a one-score game in the 4th quarter.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -26

Just as they do every year, the Alabama Crimson Tide will make their opponent look like a high school team in the opener.  That opponent in 2014 is West Virginia, which was one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year, finishing in a tie for seventh place.  This game is going to get ugly in a hurry as the Tide roll to victory.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game.  The last four have been absolute blowouts.  They beat San Jose State (48-3) as a 37-point favorite in 2010, Kent State (48-7) as a 39-point favorite in 2011, Michigan (41-14) as a 13-point favorite in 2012 and Virginia Tech (35-10) as a 21-point favorite in 2013.  You can add another blowout and cover to that résumé in 2014.

Alabama will be highly motivated after losing each of its final two games last year after a perfect 11-0 start.  This is one of Nick Saban's most experienced teams yet with 12 starters back.  The offense is going to be dynamic even with a new starting quarterback.  You have to remember that Jake Coker nearly beat out Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, last year at Florida State.

While capable, Coker won't have to do too much in the early going.  He can simply hand the ball off the to best running back corps in the country in TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 6.0/carry, 14 TD), Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 7.5/carry, 8 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 yards, 10.9/carry, 3 TD) all game and watch them do their thing.  They'll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country that paved the way for 206 yards and 5.8/carry on the ground last year.

The defense only brings back five starters, but that's not a big deal at all.  The last time the Crimson Tide only had five starters back, they allowed 10.9 points per game in 2012.  This stop unit is still loaded with future NFL stars.  After all, Nick Saban's defenses have allowed 14.3 points per game or fewer for six seasons running.

Admittedly, West Virginia is not going to be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much off a 4-8 disaster that saw two of its wins come against William & Mary (24-17) and Georgia State (41-7) at home.  The Mountaineers do have 13 starters back this year after only having eight back last season, but there really isn't a lot of talent on this team.  They are still in a mess at the QB position with Clint Trickett, who only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last year with seven touchdowns and seven picks.  He's not going to be much better this year, especially in the opener against the best defense he has ever seen by far.

The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five August games.  West Virginia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on fieldturf.  The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Troy +3

The Troy Trojans have had just five losing seasons in the last 22 years.  Larry Blakeney enters his 24th season here as head coach, and time and time again he fields teams that are capable of competing with almost any team in the country with the talent on hand.  That's why it has been a bit mind-boggling that this team has failed to finish with a winning record in each of the last three years.

That will all change in 2014 as Blakeney welcomes back 12 returning starters after having just seven back during a 6-6 campaign last season.  This team has had some tough luck in recent years as well.  The Trojans lost a ridiculous six games by a touchdown or less during a 5-7 campaign in 2012. They then lost three games by a touchdown or less last season with two of the three exceptions coming on the road against SEC powers Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

While 12 starters doesn't seem like a big number, it is actually pretty big for Troy as it is their second-most returning starters over the last five years.  The Trojans also have 56 lettermen returning, so this is going to be a deep, experienced team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them win the Sun Belt, which is something that has happened quite frequently under Blakeney's watch.

UAB, on the other hand, is known for losing.  It has not won more than five games in any of the past nine seasons, and it has even failed to win five games in seven of those nine years.  2013 was no exception as the Blazers went just 2-10 despite having 15 starters back.  Their only wins came against FCS opponent Northwestern State (52-28) as well as winless FIU (27-24).  They even got blown out at home in the season finale by previously winless Southern Miss (27-62).

Sure, the Blazers have 15 starters back this year, but that doesn't mean much for them because there isn't much talent to speak of here for first-year head coach Bill Clark.  In fact, the Blazers have had 14 or more starters back in four of the past five seasons.  How have they done over that time?  How about a combined 17-43 record.  So, just because a team has a lot of starters back doesn't always mean it's a good thing, especially for small-school programs like UAB who cannot recruit talent.

Troy has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including each of the last three.  Corey Robinson broke an 18-year-old NCAA record by completing 93.8% (30-32) of his passes in a 34-31 overtime win over the Blazers last season in the opener.  Remember, this was an inexperienced Troy team last year with just seven starters back.  With 12 back this year and 56 lettermen, they will be much more prepared for the opener, and should roll this time.

UAB is just 22-42 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They had blowout losses to Vanderbilt (24-52), UTSA (31-52), Marshall (14-56), East Carolina (14-63) and Southern Miss (27-62) during this 2-7 ATS skid dating back to last season.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +21

The UCLA Bruins are coming into the 2014 season way overvalued.  They are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 this season and make the four-team playoff.  As a result, the betting public is way too high on them in the early going, starting with this opener against Virginia on the road.

Conversely, Virginia is coming off a 2-10 season in which it went winless in ACC play.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavaliers, and as a result they head into the 2014 season underdog.  They should not be catching three touchdowns against the Bruins Saturday.

Mike London hasn't gotten the most out of the talent he has had on hand.  A big reason for that is the fact that this team has been decimated by injuries in recent years.  I look for them to have better luck in that department in 2014, which will lead to them being one of the more improved teams in the country statistically.

Speaking of talent, Virginia has actually averaged the 31st-best recruiting class in the country over the last three seasons.  That talent could start paying off as soon as this year, especially when you consider that this should be London's best team yet.  Indeed, he will be working with a whopping 17 returning starters and 53 lettermen from last year's squad.

The offense is going to be vastly improved.  All of the top rushers are back, including Kevin Parks (1,031 yards, 11 TD).  QB Greyson Lambert got his feet wet with a little playing time as a freshman last year, and he's got the talent to really emerge as a sophomore.  He'll be working behind an offensive line that has three starters and 49 career starts back. 

I'm really excited about the defense as eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers return.  This will easily be one of the most improved stop units in the country.  Headlining the defense is All-ACC safety Anthony Harris, who led the nation with eight interceptions last year.  I believe this defense will keep the UCLA offense in check and allow the Cavaliers to cover three touchdowns.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes would be a much bigger favorite if Braxton Miller was playing.  While Miller is an excellent player, Urban Meyer has done a lot more with worse starters than JT Barrett, who will get the start Saturday against Navy.  I look for it to be business as usual for the Buckeyes, who will roll to victory against the overmatched Midshipmen in this one.

Meyer would have a case for being the best coach in college football with two national championships at Florida and a perfect 12-0 season at Utah.  That doesn't even include how he turned Bowling Green around in his time there.  Nor does it include that fact that Ohio State went a perfect 24-0 in his first 24 games as head coach over the last two seasons before dropping the last two to Michigan State and Clemson.

The quarterback is J.T. Barrett, and while he's not as athletic or dynamic as Braxton Miller, who is? Alex Smith wasn't. Josh Harris wasn't. Neither was Chris Leak nor Kenny Guiton. And Meyer did just fine with those guys, using Harris to win 17 games in two seasons at Bowling Green, Smith to go 12-0 at Utah, Leak to win a national title at Florida and Guiton to replace the injured Miller a year ago and lead the Buckeyes to three straight victories.

Meyer inherited that quartet (Smith, Harris, Leak, Guiton) from the previous staff at each school, just as he inherited Braxton Miller from Jim Tressel. In most cases, most obviously with Smith, Harris and Guiton, but also Miller, Meyer milked more than expected from each quarterback, and he did it right away.

When he hand-picks a guy at QB, they usually thrive even more.  Barrett is a handpicked recruit and one of the top-three dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  Meyer handpicked Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green, and he set all kinds of school records playing for Meyer's former assistant, Gregg Brandon, in Meyer's offense.  The same thing happened at Utah with Brian Johnson, who thrived under Meyer assistant Kyle Whittingham, once again Meyer's system.  We all know how Tim Tebow and Cam Newton worked out, as well.

Barrett will be fine because this team is loaded with talented skill players around him.  But the defense is the biggest reason why I like Ohio State to roll Navy.  After returning just four starters on defense last year, the Buckeyes welcome back seven starters on D in 2014.  They will play more press coverage to mask the secondary, which was a weakness last year for this team.  It can only get better in 2014.

The good news is that the secondary won't be needed against Navy's triple-option offense.  It will be the front seven that needs to stop it, and perhaps no better team is equipped to do so than Ohio State.  It has the best defensive line in the entire country with all four starters returning from a unit that gave up only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This unit is loaded with nothing but future-early-round NFL draft picks in Noah Spence, Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.

Another key to this game is that Ohio State has had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option.  Without question, the triple-option is the toughest offense to prepare for.  That's why Navy has had so much success during the regular season over the past decade.  However, when an opponent gets extra time to prepare for it, the Midshipmen are at a massive disadvantage.  They cannot adjust because that's all they run.  They is almost zero threat of the passing game.  Meyer will have the troops prepared to stop Keenan Reynolds and company.

Plays on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Ohio State Saturday.

25* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -3

It amazes me that the Colorado Buffaloes are only a 3-point favorite over the Colorado State Rams in the opener.  This is a clear line mistake, and one that we will take advantage of.  The Buffaloes beat the Rams 41-27 last year in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Buffaloes outgained the Rams 509-295 for the game.

Colorado only went 4-8 last season, and it is undervalued as a result.  This is the second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre, and the Buffaloes are going to surprise some teams this year.  They have 16 starters and 57 lettermen returning, while losing only 18 lettermen. 

That includes QB Sefo Liufao, who threw for 1,779 yards and 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions last year.  A whopping 13 of the top 16 tacklers are back on defense. MacIntyre went 1-15 in his first 16 games at San Jose State, but 16-6 in his next 22 games.  He will turn this program around as well.

Colorado State is getting too much respect for me coming into the season.  It is coming off an 8-6 season, which included a miracle comeback victory over Washington State in the bowl game as the Cougars simply gave it away.  That win over WSU is a big reason why this team is getting so much respect.  However, the losses are enormous, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams only bring back 12 starters this year.  They lose leading rusher Kapri Bibbs (1,741 yards, 31 TD) as well as four starters along the offensive line.  The defensive line brings back just one of four starters, so this team figures to get owned the trenches, and there's clearly no replacing Bibbs.

The Buffaloes finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, which included a 7-point loss at Utah as a 15-point underdog, a 29-47 home loss to USC as a 21-point dog, a 41-24 home win over Cal as a 2-point favorite, and a 23-45 loss at UCLA as a 28-point dog.  I look for them to continue being a covering machine not only at the start of 2014, but for much of the season as this team is vastly improved.  Bet Colorado Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UTSA +11.5

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football entering 2014.  I actually have them winning Conference USA's West Division and squaring off against Marshall in the C-USA Title Game.  I cannot say enough good things about fourth-year head coach Larry Coker, who has really done an excellent job with this team.

UTSA went 7-5 last year, but this will be the first year that it can be bowl eligible, and I believe it will get to a bowl.  This team comes in with a ton of momentum after going 5-0 in ts final five games of 2013 with wins over FBS opponents UAB (52-31), Tulsa (34-15), Tulane (10-7), North Texas (21-13) and Louisiana Tech (30-10).  Two of those five teams made bowl games.

Now, Coker will be working with the most experienced team in the entire country.  Indeed, UTSA returns a whopping 20 starters and 55 lettermen while losing only 10.  They had 18 starters back last year, so this is a veteran group that is used to playing one another.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year despite finishing -7 in turnover differential on the season, too.

Sure, UTSA lost 28-59 at home to Houston last season, but a deeper look into the box score shows that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Indeed, UTSA actually outgained Houston 493-491 for the game, but it finished -5 in turnover differential as it gave the ball away five times, while the Cougars didn't cough it up once.  In fact, this was a 31-28 game heading into the 4th quarter.  This 2014 rematch will be much closer, and I even give the Roadrunners a great shot to win it outright.

Houston thrived off of turnovers last year, and it comes into 2014 overvalued as a result.  It went 8-5 last year, but it was very fortunate to finish with that record thanks to leading the country in turnover differential (+25).  That's essentially an average of +2 in turnover differential per game.  The Cougars simply cannot rely on that again in 2014, and they aren't going to be as strong as a result.  They only outgained opponents 420-416 on the year.  They do have 17 returning starters and will be a quality team, but they are getting too much love as a double-digit favorite in the 2014 opener.

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  UTSA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  You'll learn to love this team once you watch them give the Cougars a run for their money Friday night.  Take UTSA Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Western Kentucky +8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be going through their third head coach in three years.  Both Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino capitalized on getting WKU to bowl eligibility in each of the last three seasons, and they both left for greener pastures.  Taggart is now the head coach at South Florida, while Petrino returns to Louisville.

Enter Jeff Brohm, who will actually keep some continuity on this team considering he was the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator under Petrino last year.  He played quarterback under Petrino at Louisville, so he certainly has learned under one of the best offensive minds in all of college football.

Brohm and the WKU offense will have plenty of success this year after putting up 30.8 points and 459 yards per game last season.  That's because eight starters return on this side of the ball, including senior QB Brandon Doughty, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,857 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He will need to cut back on his turnovers because the Hilltoppers finished -10 in turnover differential, but that's a sign that points upward for them heading into 2014.

Bowling Green is getting way too much respect after going 10-4 last year and winning the MAC.  That was a quality team, but they lose head coach Dave Clawson to Wake Forest, and they only have 12 starters back this year after bringing back 16 last year.  They are sure to take a big step back in 2014, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They only have five starters back on D, and they were extremely fortunate to give up 15.9 ppg last year because they gave up 20.3 yards per point, which is ridiculously high.

The Falcons also finish +10 in turnover differential last year to aid their cause.  They did go 3-2 in true road games, but their three wins came against lowly Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, who went a combined 6-30 last season.  They also lost at Indiana (10-42).  This is going to be a quality team again in 2014, but nowhere near as strong as 2013.  Asking the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown on the road against a quality WKU squad is simply asking too much.

Plays on home teams (W KENTUCKY) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WKU is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Roll with Western Kentucky Friday.

20* 2014 College Football Season Opener on Tulsa -4.5

Tulsa was coming off a Conference USA Title in 2012 as it went 11-3 and beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  It had gone a combined 29-11 in three seasons prior to 2013's 3-9 disaster.  There were a lot of signs pointing downward last year, though, as they had just nine returning starters, including two on defense.

I look for Tulsa to to be a much-improved team in 2014 with 15 returning starters for head coach Bill Blankenship.  A whopping 10 of those come on defense, where the Golden Hurricane will be vastly improved after giving up 33.9 points and 430 yards per game last year.  THe offense also figures to take a step forward despite only five starters coming back.  They had averaged at least 33 points per game in three years prior to 2013, where they averaged just 21.1 points.

Sophomore Dane Evans will be the QB after gaining valuable experience there last year.  He has the luxury of welcoming back junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who had 845 receiving yards in 2012 before missing all but two starts last year due to injury.  This is a talented set of skill players led by Garrett.  The defense has 17 of its top 19 tacklers back from last year and a ton of depth heading into 2014.

I was big on Tulane last year, and it delivered by going 7-6 and making it to a bowl game.  However, that team was very fortunate to get bowl eligible because it was nowhere near as good as its record would indicate.  In fact, it only gained 311 yards per game offensively while giving up 351 yards per game on defense.  It was actually outgained by 40 yards per game on the season.

The key to Tulane's season was finishing +11 in turnover differential, while Tulsa went -10 in turnover differential.  I expect some regression to the mean for both teams this year.  Tulane did beat Tulsa 14-7 at home last year despite getting outgained 301-344 for the game.  It forced four turnovers from Tulsa en route to victory.  I look for the Golden Hurricane to have their revenge at home this time around because they are a lot more experienced, while the Green Wave figure to take a step back as soon as the opener.

Tulsa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Tulane, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Before last year's 7-point loss, the Golden Hurricane had won their previous eight meetings with the Green Wave by 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points, respectively.  I look for them to get back to dominating this series in 2014 with a blowout home victory.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.