|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-07-13||Stanford v. Arizona State -3||38-14||Loss||-105||49 h 51 m||Show|
15* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 Championship ANNIHILATOR on Arizona State -3
The Arizona State Sun Devils have put together a tremendous run to make the Pac-12 Title Game and to host it as well. They have won seven straight games coming in, which includes road wins at Utah and UCLA, and blowout home wins over the likes of Washington (53-24), Oregon State (30-17) and Arizona (58-21). When you compare common opponents, it
|12-07-13||Marshall v. Rice +6.5||Top||24-41||Win||100||41 h 7 m||Show|
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +6.5
The public perception of Marshall right now is at an all-time high, while the public perception of Rice is certainly wavering. That
|12-07-13||Oklahoma +10 v. Oklahoma State||33-24||Win||100||41 h 6 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Oky State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10
This is a rivalry game, and Oklahoma would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma State
|12-06-13||Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois||47-27||Win||100||44 h 46 m||Show|
15* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois MAC Championship No-Brainer on Bowling Green +5
The Bowling Green Falcons could be the toughest team that Northern Illinois has faced all season. This is a team that could easily be 11-1 right now if not for losses to Toledo and Mississippi State by a combined four points. This team is the real deal and playing its best football of the season coming in. It has gone 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in its last four games overall, which is what it took to get a trip to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit.
Not only have the Falcons been winning, they
|12-05-13||Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5||Top||31-24||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +3.5
The Bearcats have saved their best football of the season for last. They have won six straight games coming in with four of those victories coming by double-digits. They now still have a shot to win the American Athletic with some help from SMU this weekend, which would put them in a BCS Bowl. No matter what Louisville does, it won
|11-30-13||UCLA v. USC -3||Top||35-14||Loss||-110||62 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -3
The USC Trojans have been revived under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. They have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread with Oregeron at the helm with their only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. They have beaten some very good teams along the way, topping Arizona (38-31), Utah (19-3) and Stanford (20-17) at home, while also going on the road and knocking off Oregon State (31-14). No team in the country wants to play this team right now.
While the Trojans come into this game with a ton of momentum, the Bruins will be in a tough state of mind following their 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. That game was essentially for the Pac-12 South Title, and I foresee UCLA suffering a hangover this week because of it. I also expect that USC will be motivated to avenge last year
|11-30-13||Notre Dame +16 v. Stanford||20-27||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Stanford Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +16
This is an awfully big number for a rivalry game like this one. That
|11-30-13||Boston College v. Syracuse +3||Top||31-34||Win||100||17 h 58 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +3
The Syracuse Orange have plenty of reason to be motivated for a win at home Saturday. First, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Secondly, this is Senior Day, so they want to send their seniors out with a victory in their final home game.
Boston College is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and it should not be favored here. It is 7-4 on the season but nowhere near as good as its record. The Eagles rank 89th in the country in total offense at 370.4 yards per game, and 76th in total defense at 417.1 yards per game. As you can see, they are getting outgained by roughly 47 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team with a losing record than one that is 7-4.
The biggest strength of Boston College is its running game, which averaged 221 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. The biggest strength of the Syracuse defense is its ability to stop the run. The Orange rank 27th in the country against the run, giving up just 133.5 yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Syracuse is 3-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 16.6, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. Boston College is just 2-3 on the road this year, getting outscored 21.6 to 30.6, or by an average of 9.0 points per game. Its only wins came at Maryland (29-26) as a 2-point favorite and at New Mexico State (48-34) as a 25-point favorite.
The Orange are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21 home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston College is 2-9 against the number in its last 11 road games. Syracuse is 7-2-1 against the number in its last 10 home games. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.
|11-30-13||Penn State +24.5 v. Wisconsin||31-24||Win||100||17 h 57 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Penn State +24.5
The Wisconsin Badgers were undervalued all season up to this point. As a result, they have gone 9-1-1 against the spread in their 11 games this season. The betting public has jumped all over this team because of it, and now their numbers have been inflated over the past two weeks.
Wisconsin was overvalued as a 15.5-point favorite at Minnesota last week, winning by a final of 20-7 to miss the cover. Now, it is certainly overvalued again as a 24.5-point favorite against a quality Penn State team that will give it a run for its money.
Remember, Penn State was only a 15-point underdog at Ohio State on October 26. Now, oddsmakers are giving the Nittany Lions nearly 10 more points against Wisconsin, which lost to Ohio State. That fact alone shows you how there is a ton of value in backing the Nittany Lions in this game Saturday.
The key to stopping Wisconsin is stopping its running game. The 11 opponents that Penn State has faced this season average 179 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. The Nittany Lions have held those 11 opponents to well below their season average, yielding just 146 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. That shows you that Penn State is solid against the run.
Last year, Penn State beat Wisconsin by a final of 24-21 as a 1-point home favorite. It held the Badgers to just 158 rushing yards on 43 carries in the win, giving up a mere 3.7 yards per carry in the win. I don't believe there is that much difference between these teams from last year to this year, so there's no way the Badgers should be laying 24.5 points in the rematch.
Plays on road underdogs (PENN ST) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-9 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. They have not lost two straight games this season, bouncing back from each of their first four losses with a victory in their next game. Take Penn State Saturday.
|11-30-13||Temple +9 v. Memphis||41-21||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +9
The Temple Owls are vastly underrated due to their 1-10 record right now. I have no doubt this is much better than a 1-10 team, and they have proven it in the second half of the season by playing several very good teams close.
Since a 33-14 home win over Army on October 14, the Owls have lost each of their last four games by 10 points or fewer. They fell on the road to SMU (49-59) as a 14-point dog and at Rutgers (20-23) as an 11.5-point dog. They also lost at home to UCF (36-39) as a 17.5-point dog, and against UConn (21-28) as a 6-point favorite. They obviously should not have lost to the Huskies, outgaining them 372-235 for the game, but their three turnovers gave that game away.
The reason for the improvement of this team has been quarterback P.J. Walker, who has been an absolute playmaker for this offense since being inserted into the starting role against Louisville. Walker has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,756 yards with 16 touchdowns against seven interceptions, while also rushing for 273 yards and three scores. His dual-threat ability adds a dimension to this offense that it did not have before. The Owls are 6-1 ATS with Walker as their starter.
Memphis has no business being more than a touchdown favorite here. While it has some solid performances against good teams like Temple does, the fact of the matter is that its only three wins this season have come against Arkansas State, Tennessee-Martin and South Florida. Off a heartbreaking loss to Louisville last week by a touchdown, the Tigers could easily suffer a hangover effect this week, which was similar to what Temple suffered last week in a loss to UConn after falling to UCF by a field goal the previous week.
Temple is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games following two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. The Owls are 7-1 against the number as an underdog this season. Memphis is 5-11 against the spread in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Temple Saturday.
|11-29-13||South Florida +27 v. Central Florida||20-23||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
15* South Florida/UCF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +27
The Central Florida Knights are way overvalued right now due to their 9-1 start. The betting public has been all over them of late, which has inflated this number. At 2-8 on the season, the South Florida Bulls come into this game undervalued. I look for this to be a much closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating Friday night.
While South Florida has lost four straight coming in, I've seen enough from this team against quality competition to know that the Bulls can hang tough in this one. They beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home despite being a 10.5-point underdog. They also went on the road and only lost 23-35 at Houston, throwing for 311 yards in the loss. That's the same Houston team that nearly beat UCF, losing 14-19 on the road.
South Florida has really turned up its pressure defensively the past two weeks, limiting Memphis to just 242 total yards, and SMU to a mere 280 total yards. The Bulls rank 29th in the country in total defense at 355.8 yards per game allowed. UCF will have a hard time scoring 27 points, let alone winning by 27.
The Knights have played in several close games this year and are really fortunate to be 9-1 right now. Six of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, but they've gone 5-1 in those contests. That includes victories over lowly Memphis (24-17) and Temple (39-36). If Memphis (3-7) and Temple (1-10) can compete with UCF, then South Florida can, too.
Plays on a road team (S FLORIDA) - after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. UCF is 0-6 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the past two seasons. The Knights are 2-10 against the number off a home win over the last three years. Roll with South Florida Friday.
|11-29-13||Fresno State -7.5 v. San Jose State||Top||52-62||Loss||-110||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -7.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are fighting for a BCS bowl. Not only do they need to continue to win, but they need to do so impressively. A blowout road victory against a quality San Jose State team would certainly help their cause. Winning by big margins has been no problem for the Bulldogs all season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 19.8 points per game on the season. They have been at their best on the road, outscoring foes by 24.3 points per game away from home.
Fresno State boasts an offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 575.6 total yards per game, including 46.8 points per game. Quarterback Derek Carr deserves serious Heisman Trophy consideration. The senior is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,948 yards with 39 touchdowns against four interceptions. Carr and company should have their way with a San Jose State stop unit that is giving up 33.5 points and 442.3 yards per game to rank 98th in the country in total defense.
San Jose State has certainly taken a step back from last season. They are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to become bowl eligible, losing each of their last three games while going 0-3 against the spread in the process. That includes home losses to San Diego State (30-34) and Navy (52-58), as well as a blowout road loss at Nevada (16-38). That setback against Nevada was the fourth blowout loss suffered by the Trojans this season. They were also beaten by Stanford (13-34), Minnesota (24-43) and Utah State (12-40).
Fresno State is 15-2 straight up in its last 17 meetings with San Jose State. Plays against any team (SAN JOSE ST)
|11-29-13||Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +3||41-31||Loss||-115||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* Miami/Pittsburgh ABC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Panthers have played their best football of the season over the past three weeks coming in. They have picked up a home win over Notre Dame (28-21) as well as a road win at Syracuse (17-16). They did lose to North Carolina (27-34), but few teams in the country are playing as well as the Tar Heels right now. This is a team that will be really motivated to put an end to Miami
|11-26-13||Western Michigan +36.5 v. Northern Illinois||14-33||Win||100||7 h 52 m||Show|
15* WMU/NIU MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +36.5
The betting public has been all over Northern Illinois this season, especially over the last several weeks. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-10 Western Michigan squad. When oddsmakers realize this, they are forced to set a number higher than it should be to try and get even money on both sides. There
|11-23-13||Missouri v. Ole Miss +3||Top||24-10||Loss||-115||27 h 12 m||Show|
20* Missouri/Ole Miss ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3
Ole Miss is still one of the best teams in the country despite suffering three losses this season. Two of those losses have come on the road against Alabama and Auburn, which are arguably the two best teams in the SEC. The other came at home against Texas A&M by a field goal, which is probably the third-best team in the conference. The Rebels proved they could beat an SEC power by knocking off LSU 27-24, which was the start of a four-game winning streak heading into this one.
|11-23-13||Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||14-10||Loss||-110||41 h 11 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5
The Volunteers come in on two weeks of rest having last played on November 9 and in need of a victory. They have to win their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky to become bowl eligible, and it
|11-23-13||California +32 v. Stanford||Top||13-63||Loss||-105||23 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +32
The betting public wants nothing to do with 1-10 California. As a result, I believe this line is way out of whack and inflated. This is the final game of the season for the Golden Bears, and their last chance to redeem themselves. I fully expect them to put their best foot forward Saturday because of it.
Stanford is going to be in a terrible state of mind coming into this one. It just lost at USC last week after a big win over Oregon in its previous game. That loss to the Trojans likely cost Stanford the Pac-12 Title, and they know it. I look for the Cardinal to suffer a bit of a hangover effect because of it.
The Cardinal are not an explosive offensive team. It's going to take a lot of points for them to cover this big number, and I just don't believe they have it in them. Stanford is only scoring 30.4 points and averaging 384.2 yards per game to rank 84th in the country in total offense. They are a running team who does not up the tempo offensively, which favors getting big points when going against them.
California has only beaten beaten by more than 32 points twice this season. One was a 16-55 loss to Oregon, which is a team with an explosive offense that can cover these big spreads consistently. The other was a 28-62 loss to USC. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Trojans scored three special teams touchdowns. Take those away, and it's a 41-28 game.
Stanford only has one win by more than 21 points this season. That was a 55-17 win over Washington State. This isn't a team known for blowing out the opposition simply because of the style of football it plays. In fact, the Cardinal have only scored more than 34 points twice all season.
Cal has found a running game in recent weeks to compliment its dynamic passing attack. The Bears rushed for 195 yards on USC, and 197 yards on Colorado. They rank 11th in the country in passing offense at 333.4 yards per game. Stanford's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 96th in the country at 253.9 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 63.7% of their passes against Stanford.
Plays on road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Stanford is 6-20 against the spread in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bet California Saturday.
|11-23-13||Nebraska v. Penn State -1.5||23-20||Loss||-110||22 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -1.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions want revenge from two very close defeats to the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the past two seasons. I believe they get it at home this Saturday, where they have been dominant all season long.
Nebraska beat Penn State 17-14 on the road in 2011. Then, after blowing a 20-6 halftime lead, the Nittany Lions would lost 23-32 at Nebraska in 2012. They certainly have had this game circled on their calendars after those two defeats, and there's no question they will be the more motivated team Saturday because of it.
The Cornhuskers will be in a fragile state of mind heading into this one. They just lost at home to Michigan State by a final of 28-41 in a game that was pretty much for the Big Ten Legends Division Title. They will have a hard time bouncing back from that kind of a loss, and I look for them to suffer a hangover because of it.
Nebraska's strength is its rushing attack, which averages 240 yards per game. Penn State has been stout against the run this season, giving up just 144 yards per game and 3.9 per carry. I look for the Nittany Lions to hold up against the run, which will be the key to winning this contest.
Penn State boasts one of the more underrated offenses in the country. It is putting up 29.3 points and 434.6 yards per game this season, including 37.0 points and 478.8 yards per game at home where it is 5-1 on the season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.2 points per game at home this year.
Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has been solid, completing 59% of his passes for 2,399 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Bill Belton has rushed for 796 yards and five touchdowns, while Zach Zwinak has added 725 yards and 12 scores.
Nebraska has played a quarterback carousel all season, playing three different quarterbacks at times this year. It has not allowed the Huskers to get into any kind of rhythm offensively. Whoever has been under center of late has turned the ball over a ton. The Huskers have committed 16 turnovers in their last five games overall for an average of 3.2 per game.
The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Cornhuskers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Nebraska is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Penn State Saturday.
|11-23-13||Georgia State +24 v. Arkansas State||33-35||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +24
The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-10 team like Georgia State. This forces oddsmakers to set inflated spreads this late in the season, and there's no question in my mind that this line has been inflated Saturday as the Panthers take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
Georgia State is nowhere near as bad as its record would indicate. As a result, there has been a ton of value on this team all season. In fact, Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, which means that it has been playing teams much tougher than it was expected to.
Since losing 3-45 at No. 1 Alabama, the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season. They only lost 28-35 as a 15-point home dog to Troy. The lost at Texas State 17-24 as a 16-point dog, and they also covered as a 19-point dog in a 28-44 home loss to Western Kentucky, and as a 20.5-point dog in a 21-35 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette.
To compare, Arkansas State only beat Troy 41-34 at home as a 6-point favorite. Arkansas State also lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 7-23 at home. It was outgained 168-470 by the Rajin' Cajuns in that defeat. The Red Wolves simply aren't the same team they were the past two years when they won back-to-back Sun Belt Titles. However, they continue to get treated like it by oddsmakers.
Indeed, Georgia State has played its best football of late. It was only outgained 410-444 in that loss to Western Kentucky two weeks ago. Quarterback Ronnie Bell threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Last week, the Panthers were only outgained 481-482 by Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Again, Bell threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns.
Bell should continue to have success against an Arkansas State defense that is simply not very good. The Red Wolves have allowed 417.8 total yards per game this season, which is very poor when you consider that the 10 opponents that they have faced only average 389 yards per game on the season.
Also, offensively, the Red Wolves are averaging a solid 431 yards per game. However, their 10 opponents combine to give up an average of 445 yards per game, so that 431-yard number is not very impressive at all. I would argue that with those numbers, the Red Wolves are below average on both sides of the football.
Georgia State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games this season. Arkansas state is 0-9 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Panthers. Take Georgia State Saturday.
|11-23-13||New Mexico State +22.5 v. Florida Atlantic||10-55||Loss||-110||22 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +22.5
New Mexico State is one of the most undervalued teams in all of college football right now in terms of the point spread due to its 1-9 record on the season. Oddsmakers have been forced to set their spreads to high in recent weeks, and they've done so again this week. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-9 team, which is the cause for the inflation. We'll take advantage Saturday.
The Aggies have played their best football of the season of late. They are coming off back-to-back losses, but were very competitive against quality opponents in the process. They lost 35-49 at LA Lafayette on November 2 as a 32.5-point underdog. They lost 34-48 at home against Boston College on November 9 as a 25-point dog. Now, they have had two weeks of rest to get ready for Florida Atlantic since that loss to the Eagles and to build off of their solid play during the bye week.
New Mexico State actually led LA-Lafayette 28-7 in that game before eventually losing by 14. It also outgained the Rajin' Cajuns 450-440 for the game. Andrew McDonald threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Against Boston College, it was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter. The Aggies would lose by 14 despite outgaining the Eagles 558-555 for the game. McDonald had another solid performance, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns in the loss.
I would certainly argue that Boston College and Louisiana-Lafayette are both better teams than Florida Atlantic, and you would be crazy if you thought otherwise. That's why the Owls have no business being a 22.5-point favorite in this game against an improved Aggies squad that is coming off two weeks of rest.
The reason FAU is getting so much love here is that it is coming off back-to-back blowout victories over Tulane and Southern Miss. I believe Tulane is one of the most overrated teams in college football, while Southern Miss is the worst team in the FBS, period. Those blowout wins were not impressive at all, but because they happened, the Owls are getting a lot of respect from the books here.
Florida Atlantic is only scoring 24.1 points and putting up 354.9 yards per game this season to rank 104th in the country in total offense. It takes a good offense to cover a big number like this, and the Owls are simply lacking one. New Mexico State comes in having posted 449, 450 and 558 total yards in its last three games overall, so it certainly has the offense to keep this game competitive. I also like some of the comments from head coach Doug Martin heading into this one as well.
"I love the mentality of our team and our players," Martin said. "They're fighting, they've got great character. Not many teams with one win play as hard as we do. Especially against Boston College and the talent level that team had. A lot of people have been appreciative of that. I think in those terms, we've certainly turned corner, as far as the mentality of the football team."
"It's going to be a great task. A challenge we're certainly looking forward too," Martin said of Saturday's contest. "To be able to win out for us would be a great momentum change, momentum shift for us going into recruiting. We're excited about the game."
Plays on road underdogs (NEW MEXICO ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1992. FAU is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points per game since 1992. The Owls are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after committing one or less turnovers in their previous game. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-23-13||Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5||30-6||Loss||-115||19 h 58 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5
The Wildcats clearly are nowhere near as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, I would argue that this team is every bit as good as the one that won double-digit games last season. The only difference has been their record in close games, which has simply been atrocious. Five of their six losses have come by 10 points or less.
That 10-point loss to Ohio State was a 3-point game before the Buckeyes scored a garbage touchdown on special teams on the final play of the game, falling on a fumble in the end zone. Northwestern also lost by 8 points to Michigan last week, only because it went into triple overtime and the Wolverines got the 2-point conversion.
The other three close losses came to Minnesota (17-20), Iowa (10-17) and Nebraska (24-27) on a hail mary on the game's final play. The Wildcats easily could have won all five of those games, realistically only getting blown out once this season. That was on the road against Wisconsin, which was understandable because they were just coming off their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State the previous week.
With a chance to make a bowl game if they win their next two games, the Wildcats should be plenty motivated to put an end to this misery and get a win Saturday. Plus, teams who are coming off a multiple-overtime loss are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their next game in 2013. While many will be expecting Northwestern to fold, I'm not one of them. Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best head coaches in the country and he's an excellent motivator. He will have his troops ready to go at home Saturday.
Michigan State is coming off its biggest win of the season at Nebraska, and knowing that it can afford to lose one game and still win the Legends Division, it may have a hard time getting motivated to play Saturday. The Spartans could lose this game and still beat Minnesota at home next week to win the Legends Division. The Wildcats cannot lose or they won
|11-22-13||Navy +3 v. San Jose State||Top||58-52||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* Navy/San Jose State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +3
The Midshipmen clearly want revenge from their two losses to the Trojans over the past two seasons. Last year, in their 12-0 loss, they didn
|11-21-13||UNLV +3 v. Air Force||41-21||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on UNLV +3
The UNLV Rebels are extremely motivated to get to their first bowl game since 2000. They are clearly improved this year with a 5-5 record coming into this one. After suffering losses to San Jose State (24-34) and Utah State (24-28) over their past two games, the Rebels are certainly feeling a sense of urgency to get that all-important sixth victory. They don
|11-20-13||Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3||Top||35-17||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* NIU/Toledo MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Toledo +3
The Toledo Rockets will be out for revenge after narrow losses to Northern Illinois each of the past two seasons. They fell 63-60 at home against the Huskies in 2011, and lost 24-31 on the road last year. They have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. After taking care of business up to this point, the Rockets now control their own destiny in the MAC West. If they win out, they will win the division and play in the MAC Title game. They certainly will not be lacking any motivation because of it.
Toledo was very impressive in a 51-41 win over Buffalo last week. This was a 38-0 game early into the third quarter with the outcome basically decided. The Rockets packed it in from there, and allowed the Bulls to rack up a ton of points in garbage time to make the final score appear closer than it really was. Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Kareem Hunt added 186 rushing yards and a score.
This is a Toledo offense that is putting up 35.0 points and 456.1 yards per game against a very tough schedule this season. Its only losses have come on the road to the likes of Florida, Missouri and Ball State, and it hung tough in all three contests. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this year, outscoring opponents by 17.8 points per game. Their strength defensively is a run defense that is giving up 160 yards per game on just 3.8 per carry. The key to a win will be stopping Jordan Lynch and NIU
|11-19-13||Buffalo v. Miami (OH) +24.5||Top||44-7||Loss||-105||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio +24.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is 0-10 on the season. That
|11-16-13||Wyoming +24 v. Boise State||7-48||Loss||-110||51 h 58 m||Show|
15* Wyoming/Boise State ESPN 2 BAILOUT on Wyoming +24
The Boise State Broncos are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. They should not be a 23-point favorite over Wyoming. Down their starting quarterback, and certainly down from their level of play from year's past, the Broncos are way overvalued in this one.
This line is an overreaction from Boise State's 42-30 win at Colorado State last time out, coupled with Wyoming's 10-48 loss to Fresno State last game. The Broncos were actually outgained 437-626 by Colorado State, further showing that their defense is nowhere near as dominant as it has been in year's past.
Boise State is allowing 25.2 points and 437.7 yards per game this season to rank 95th in the country in total defense. It will have a hard time containing an explosive Wyoming offense that is averaging 33.6 points and 491.6 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Wyoming's ability to move the football and put points on the board will allow it to stay within this 23-point spread.
Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith is quietly having a monster season in the Mountain West. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,508 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 441 yards and three scores. Running back Shaun Wick is also having a big year, rushing for 823 yards and nine touchdowns on 6.5 per carry.
The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They have gone 3-1 against the spread in road games in 2013. They lost at Nebraska 34-37 as a 31-point underdog to open the season. They won at Air Force 56-23 as a 4-point favorite, and they only lost 44-51 at San Jose State as a 10.5-point underdog. Those three results right there show that Wyoming travels well.
Furthermore, Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a sensational 17-4 against the spread as a road underdog as the coach of Wyoming. Wyoming is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games overall. Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is 0-6 against the number in home games after having won four or five of their last six games as the coach of Boise State. Peterson is also 0-6 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that average at least 200 rushing yards per game as the coach of Boise State.
The Broncos are 1-12 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. These last five trends combined for a 38-2 system backing the Cowboys. Take Wyoming Saturday.
|11-16-13||Oregon State +14 v. Arizona State||Top||17-30||Win||100||50 h 9 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +14
Off two straight losses to Stanford and USC, the Beavers will be hungry for a victory Saturday. That
|11-16-13||Alabama v. Mississippi State +25.5||20-7||Win||100||48 h 24 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Mississippi State +25.5
This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama. It is coming off arguably its biggest win of the season last Saturday in a 38-17 home victory over LSU. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was tied 17-17 in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the fourth.
It would be pretty easy for the Crimson Tide to overlook Mississippi State enough to fail to win by 26-plus points, which is what it would take to cover. We only have to look back to last year to find how Alabama responds after the LSU game. It beat LSU 21-17 on the road in 2012, then came back home the next week and lost to Texsa A&M 24-29 despite being a 13-point favorite.
|11-16-13||Texas Tech +28 v. Baylor||Top||34-63||Loss||-110||48 h 54 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +28
Texas Tech comes way undervalued due to its three-game losing streak. A closer look at the skid shows that the Red Raiders really had a chance to win all three games despite the final margins. They lost 30-38 at Oklahoma despite amassing 460 total yards. They committed three turnovers in that contest, which really put them in a hole that they just couldn
|11-16-13||Kentucky +13 v. Vanderbilt||6-22||Loss||-115||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13
Vanderbilt is in a huge letdown spot Saturday. It is coming off a 34-17 win at Florida last Saturday to put an end to a 22-game losing streak to the Gators. It's going to be very hard for them to come back emotionally to get ready for face a 2-7 Kentucky team that the Commodores will certainly be overlooking.
A closer look into the box score against Florida shows that Vanderbilt was very lucky to win, and that there's no way in hell it should have scored 34 points. In fact, the Commodores were outgained 183-344 by the Gators, which would normally equate to a blowout win in Florida's favor. But the Gators turned the ball over four times and gave the Commodores several easy scores.
Backup quarterback Patton Robinette only completed 6 of 12 passes for 57 yards against the Gators, so obviously he wasn't asked to do too much as Florida gave that game away. He'll have to do much more against Kentucky this week if the Commodores are going to win, let alone cover. Starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels remains doubtful with a knee injury. Robinette is only completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 421 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions on the season.
Kentucky is highly motivated to pick up its first SEC win of the season. It has played its best football on the road this year, only losing at South Carolina 28-35 despite being a 22-point underdog, and at Mississippi State 22-28 as a 12-point dog. If it can stay within a touchdown of both of those teams, then it certainly can stay within 13 of Vanderbilt Saturday.
Last week's game against Missouri was much closer than the final score would indicate. But because the Wildcats were blown out 17-48, and the Commodores are coming off a win at Florida, this line has been inflated due to public perception. The Wildcats were only outgained 369-426 by the Tigers last week in what was a 35-17 game entering the 4th quarter. Quarterback Jalen Whitlow was solid, completing 17 of 27 passes for 225 yards in the loss. It's nice to have him back and healthy again.
The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its last game. The Commodores are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|11-15-13||Washington +3 v. UCLA||Top||31-41||Loss||-105||21 h 45 m||Show|
20* Washington/UCLA ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +3
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-14-13||Georgia Tech v. Clemson -10.5||31-55||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* GA Tech/Clemson ACC Thursday No-Brainer on Clemson -10.5
The Clemson Tigers have rebounded nicely from their lone loss of the season to Florida State. They have bounced back with back-to-back blowout road victories over Maryland (40-27) and Virginia (59-10). They are still playing for a shot at a BCS game, and if they win out, they
|11-13-13||Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||27-48||Loss||-105||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Ball State/NIU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5
The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the country in 2013. They have opened 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread with their only loss coming on the road against a quality North Texas team by seven points. They have been dominant in victory, too, as seven of their nine wins have come by 18 points or more. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game. They have played their best football on the road, going 4-1 against the spread while winning by 16.8 points per game.
Ball State is putting up 39.9 points and 475.7 yards per game to rank 25th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Keith Wenning is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 3,164 yards with 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Willie Snead has caught 74 balls for 1,175 yards and 12 scores. Jahwan Edwards has rushed for 749 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense, which is only giving up 23.6 points per game, leads the country by forcing 26 turnovers on the season.
Sure, Northern Illinois has won four straight in this series, but Ball State has hung tough. The last time these teams met at Northern Illinois, Ball State lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 38-41. Last year, the Huskies won 35-23 at Ball State, but a closer look into the box score shows that the Cardinals probably should have won that game. They outgained the Huskies 563-509, and Wenning threw for 434 yards in the loss. Ball State held a 23-21 lead with under five minutes remaining before the Huskies tacked on two touchdowns in the closing minutes to pull away. Revenge is certainly on the Cardinals
|11-12-13||Buffalo +3.5 v. Toledo||Top||41-51||Loss||-110||23 h 16 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5
The Buffalo Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. After losing very tough road games to Ohio State and Baylor to open the season, which both remain unbeaten this year, the Bulls have responded by winning seven straight. In fact, their last six wins have come via blowout. They have beaten each of their last six opponents by 20 or more points, including last week
|11-09-13||LSU +13 v. Alabama||Top||17-38||Loss||-114||50 h 58 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||LSU v. Alabama UNDER 55||Top||17-38||Push||0||50 h 57 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||42-24||Win||100||49 h 57 m||Show|
20* VA Tech/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +7
The Virginia Tech Hokies really have a legitimate chance to win the Coastal Division with a victory Saturday. They would have victories against both Miami and Georgia Tech, which are their two closest contenders. That
|11-09-13||Arkansas State v. Louisiana Monroe -3||42-14||Loss||-120||49 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Monroe -3
Arkansas State continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point road underdog to Louisiana-Monroe. Somehow, this team is getting treated like the back-to-back Sun Belt champion it was the past two years, and not the woeful 4-4 team it is in 2013.
Arkansas State's four wins have come against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Troy, Idaho and South Alabama. As you can see, it does not have a good win on its schedule yet. It even struggled to beat Troy (41-34) at home and South Alabama (17-16) on the road. It is just 1-3 on the road this season with blowout losses to Memphis (7-31), Missouri (19-41) and Auburn (9-38). It also fell 7-23 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette while gaining just 168 total yards in the defeat.
Louisiana-Monroe has turned around its season, and now at 3-1 in Sun Belt play, it has a legitimate shot to win the conference this year. But due to the slow start, which was aided by an injury to starting quarterback Kolton Browning, this team is now underrated. The Warhawks have reeled off three straight victories to get back on track, including the last two thanks to the healthy return of their star quarterback.
Browning threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-10 win over Georgia State on October 26. He came back five days later and threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for another score in a 49-37 win at Troy on October 31. That brings me to my next point, which is that the Warhawks have had two extra days to prepare for Arkansas State, which last played on November 2 against South Alabama.
Monroe has had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. They have lost three straight to Arkansas State, including a 45-23 road loss last season. But that Arkansas State team had the best quarterback in Sun Belt history in Ryan Aplin, who had 10,758 career passing yards and ton of rushing yards to go with it. New quarterback Adam Kennedy has thrown just seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season, which is a far cry from what Aplin put up year after year.
Plays against road underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Better yet, plays on home favorites (LA MONROE) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Also, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-09-13||Mississippi State +19.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||41-51||Win||100||45 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miss State/Texas A&M CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +19.5
|11-09-13||USC v. California +17||62-28||Loss||-110||45 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17
You have to give the Cal Golden Bears a lot of credit for the way they continue to fight. They have covered the spread in each of their last two games and are clearly starting to show value against the spread due to their poor start this season. They covered as a 28-point underdog at Washington in a 17-41 loss. They followed that up with their best performance of the season, which was a 28-33 home loss to Arizona as a 14.5-point underdog last weekend.
I really like what I
|11-09-13||Western Kentucky -5.5 v. Army||21-17||Loss||-110||42 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky -5.5
There's no question in my mind that Western Kentucky is the superior team in this game against Army. That will show on the football field as the Hiltoppers roll to a blowout road victory to become bowl eligible with their sixth win of the season.
Western Kentucky has been dominant on both sides of the football. It is scoring 30.8 points and averaging 476.6 yards per game to rank 26th in the country in total offense. It is giving up just 361.9 yards per game to rank 29th in total defense. This team is even better than its 5-4 record would indicate.
Sure, losses to LA Lafayette and Troy are concerning but a closer look shows that they really should have won both of those games. The Hilltoppers outgained Lafayette 471-344 for the game, but were -3 in turnover differential. They also outgained Troy 532-397. So, as you can see, they dominated both of those games in every area but the scoreboard.
Army is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to two of the worst teams in college football in Temple (14-33) and Air Force (28-42). Its only wins this season have come against three terrible teams in Morgan State (28-12), LA Tech (35-16) and Eastern Michigan (50-25). That's the same Morgan State team that Western Kentucky beat (58-17).
The Hilltoppers beat Navy 19-7 on September 28, so they have some nice experience against the triple-option offense. They held the Midshipmen to just 183 total yards in the win. Navy is a much better football team than Army, and its runs the triple-option much more effectively.
Western Kentucky is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Army is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|11-08-13||Air Force v. New Mexico -3||Top||37-45||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
20* Air Force/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico -3
While the New Mexico Lobos have just two wins this season, they have been much more competitive than they were in years
|11-07-13||Oregon -10 v. Stanford||Top||20-26||Loss||-110||23 h 33 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon -10
The Ducks have certainly made a case for being the best team in all of college football. They have won every game this season by 21 or more points en route to their 8-0 start. That includes a 45-24 win at Washington, which is the same team should have won at Stanford, losing 28-31 despite outgaining the Cardinal by 210 total yards.
Oregon is putting up 55.6 points and 632.1 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota is the Heisman Trophy front runner to this point thanks to his 2,281 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as well as his 511 rushing yards and nine scores. The defense hasn
|11-07-13||Troy +14 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||36-41||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
15* Troy/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +14
The Troy Trojans have a big edge in rest heading into this one. They last played on Thursday, October 31, while Louisiana-Lafayette last played on Saturday, November 2. That gives them a full two days extra to prepare for this contest, which is huge considering this is a short week for the Rajin
|11-06-13||Central Michigan +21 v. Ball State||Top||24-44||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* CMU/Ball State MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +21
The Chippewas are playing their best football of the season of late. Prior to their loss to Northern Illinois on October 19 last time out, they had won two straight road games over Miami Ohio (21-9) and Ohio (26-23). That win over the Bobcats was quite impressive considering they were a 20-point underdog but managed 432 total yards in the win.
Having last played on October 19, Central Michigan now has had more than two full weeks to prepare for Ball State. They have had an extra week to prepare than the Cardinals, who last played on October 26.
With a game against fellow MAC West leader Northern Illinois on deck next Wednesday, this is a huge letdown spot for Ball State. That game will almost certainly decide the MAC West winner, so it doesn
|11-05-13||Ohio v. Buffalo -3.5||Top||3-30||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ohio/Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -3.5
The Buffalo Bulls have been one of the most improved teams in the country this season. As a result, they have also been one of the most underrated. After opening the season with losses against Ohio State and Baylor, who each remain undefeated, the Bulls have reeled off six straight victories while going 5-1 against the spread in the process.
In its last five games, Buffalo has been absolutely destroying opponents. In fact, it has won five straight games by 20 or more points. It beat Connecticut (41-12), Eastern Michigan (42-14) and UMass (32-3) at home, while also winning at Western Michigan (33-0) and Kent State (41-21) on the road.
Ohio was absolutely blown 7-49 at Louisville in its only true road test this season. Its other two road games came at Akron and at Eastern Michigan, which were both wins. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 22.2 points per game.
The Bulls clearly want revenge from last season
|11-02-13||UTEP +47.5 v. Texas A&M||7-57||Loss||-106||26 h 3 m||Show|
15* UTEP/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Saturday Night BAILOUT on UTEP +47.5
The Texas A&M Aggies aren't going to be interested at all this week. The 1-6 UTEP Miners come to town as the Aggies step outside SEC play. Teams from power conferences that face a non-conference game late in the season always tend to overlook that opponent when it's a team the caliber of UTEP.
Texas A&M will be much more interested in its final three games of the season, which will be against Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri with perhaps a BCS bowl on the line. It has no interest in beating UTEP by 50 Saturday, which is why I fully expect it to call off the dogs late.
Sure, there's no question I expect this to be a blowout, but asking the Aggies to win by more than six touchdowns is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider how soft their defense has been all season, which will allow UTEP plenty of opportunities to score points in the second half to keep the final score within the number.
Indeed, Texas A&M is giving up 32.6 points and 473.7 yards per game to rank a woeful 108th in the country in total defense. UTEP has actually been a pretty solid offensive team, averaging 407.4 yards per game to rank a respectable 69th in total offense, which is right in the middle of the pack.
In fact, the Miners rank 26th in the country in rushing, averaging 211.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are terrible against the run, giving up 210.1 yards per game to rank 104th in rushing defense. Even if they're down big, they're still going to stick to the run because it's what they do. And they should continue to move it effectively once Texas A&M packs it in at halftime.
UTEP is 17-6 ATS in it last 23 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60-75%. Simply put, this line is too big for a disinterested Aggies team to cover. Roll with UTEP Saturday.
|11-02-13||Eastern Michigan +31 v. Toledo||16-55||Loss||-110||24 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Dirty Dog Dandy on Eastern Michigan +31
This number is simply way too big Saturday. The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan because it is 1-7 straight up and 1-7 against the spread on the season. That's exactly what we want because it has created unbelievable line value for us to cash in on this dirty underdog.
Eastern Michigan has lost two games this season by more than 31 points, which came at Penn State (7-45) and at Northern Illinois (20-59). After playing a team like Northern Illinois last week, which is unbeaten on the season, the Eagles will certainly be battle-tested and ready to stay within 31 points of Toledo, which is on a completely different planet than NIU.
This is a huge letdown spot for Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a last-second, come from behind 28-25 win at Bowling Green last week. That was a big win and gets the Rockets back in the hunt for a MAC Title. However, they'll be much more interested in next week's game against Buffalo, which is 4-0 in MAC play this year. As a result, they'll be overlooking Eastern Michigan enough this week to not cover.
Toledo has not won a game this season by more than 27 points. That 27-point victory came at home against Western Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in the entire country, and even worse than Eastern Michigan in my opinion. Its other four wins have come by 21, 12, 3 and 1 point. I've seen nothing from the Rockets that makes me believe they should be a 31-point favorite against any FBS opponent.
Eastern Michigan played Toledo extremely tough last year. It only lost 47-52 at home as a 15-point underdog. It amassed 624 total yards in defeat. With eight starters back from that offense, and Toledo only having four starters back from that defense, I fully expect this EMU offense to put up plenty of points to keep this game competitive for a second consecutive season.
The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Rockets are 1-5--1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.
|11-02-13||Tulane v. Florida Atlantic -2||Top||17-34||Win||100||23 h 45 m||Show|
25* Conference USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic -2
Despite a 2-6 start, the Florida Atlantic Owls still have a legitimate shot to become bowl eligible. They play Tulane, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Florida International the rest of the way. That's a cake walk compared to the daunting schedule the Owls have faced to this point.
FAU has had to play both Auburn and Miami, which are two of the top teams in the country. They have also had road games against East Carolina and Rice, as well as home games against Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The other two games were road wins over South Florida (28-10) and UAB (37-23), which aren't great teams, but considering they were an underdog in both contests they were impressive.
Now, let's take a closer look at how much better Florida Atlantic is than its record would indicate. Indeed, the Owls have outgained four of their last five opponents, but managed just a 1-4 record. They lost in overtime to Middle Tennessee (35-42) despite outgaining it by 57 yards. They lost at Rice (14-18) despite outgaining it by 93 yards. They also lost at home to Marshall (23-24) despite outgaining it by 40 yards.
Sure, head coach Carl Pelini has resigned earlier this week due to using drugs, but a change could be just what the team needs. Offensive coordinator Brian Wright has been named interim coach for the remainder of the season. So many times, that first game under a new coach midseason ignites a fire into the players, and I believe that will be the case for FAU, too.
Now, let's look at Tulane, which has been the most lucky team in all of college football in 2013. It has posted a 6-2 record to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2002 after a 14-7 home win over Tulsa last week. After such a huge accomplishment for the program, it would only be human nature for the Green Wave to suffer a letdown this week.
Let's focus on the luck factor for a second. Amazingly, Tulane has been outgained in six of its eight games this season, which is the sign of a team that should 2-6 rather than 6-2. In fact, it is getting outgained 316.2 to 381.9 on the season. In their three most recent games, the Green Wave beat North Texas (24-21) despite getting outgained by 133 yards, beat East Carolina (36-33, OT) despite getting outgained by 233 yards, and beat Tulsa (14-7) despite getting outgained by 43 yards.
This team has been very fortunate in the turnover department, forcing a combined 13 turnovers over the last four games, in which they have obviously gone 4-0. FAU has been taking much better care of the football of late, committing just two turnovers in its last three games tonight. The Owls won't be giving away the same gifts that Tulane has been receiving in recent weeks, and as a result the better team will prevail Saturday.
Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Owls are 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. FAU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. These four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing Florida Atlantic. Plus, the Owls are 14-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, time and time again being undervalued. That's the case again this week. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|11-02-13||Kent State v. Akron -1.5||7-16||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -1.5
Akron should be a much bigger home favorite this week against Kent State. While both teams are 2-7 on the season, I have no doubt that Akron is the better team and it will show Saturday.
The Zips have suffered some brutal losses this season. They biggest was a 24-28 setback as a 35-point underdog at Michigan. It also lost 20-27 at Northern Illinois as a 24-point dog, and at home against LA Lafayette 30-35 as a 7-point dog. Those three teams really show what this team is capable of.
It's easy to see that Kent State is a terrible football team this season. That was evident right out of the gate in a 17-10 win over Liberty, which is one of its two wins this year. The other came against Western Michigan. A road loss to South Alabama (21-38) and home losses to Bowling Green (22-41) and Buffalo (21-41) are a true indicator of how bad the Flashes are this season.
This is a revenge game for Akron, which lost 24-35 at Kent State last season as an 18.5-point dog. The Zips lost despite outgaining the Flashes 442-364 for the game. Remember, this was a Kent State team last year that was an overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game away from playing in a BCS game. This year's version of the Golden Flashes is only a fraction of that team.
When you look at the numbers and who Kent State has faced, it's easy to see that they are a terrible football team. They only average 349 yards per game offensively against teams that average giving up 403 yards per game. They give up 471 yards per game defensively against teams that average 425 yards per game on offense. Akron has been better defensively than it gets credit for, allowing 417 yards per game against teams that average 437 yards per game.
The Golden Flashes are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss. Kent State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Take Akron Saturday.
|11-02-13||Northwestern +6 v. Nebraska||24-27||Win||100||20 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Northwestern +6
The Northwestern Wildcats were clearly overvalued coming into the season after last year's campaign in which they won 10 games and went 11-1-1 against the spread. Now, after losing four straight and six straight against the spread, they are back to being undervalued, and I'll gladly take advantage this week.
It's not like this team is much worse than last year's squad, but they just haven't been getting it done in close games. They had their chances to beat Ohio State, but eventually lost 30-40 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate and could have gone either way. Since that defeat, they have suffered a 3-point loss to Minnesota and an overtime loss to Iowa.
I still have faith that Northwestern will rebound, and it starts this week as it wants huge revenge on Nebraska. Indeed, it will have no problem getting up for this game after blowing a late 12-point lead at home to the Cornhuskers last year to lose in the closing seconds by a final of 28-29. These teams also played a close game in 2011 with the Wildcats prevailing 28-25 on the road as a 17.5-point underdog.
The Cornhuskers have had their own problems this year as well. They just lost at Minnesota 23-34 last week, and they don't have an impressive win on their schedule yet. Their five wins have come against the likes of Wyoming, Southern Miss, South Dakota State, Illinois and Purdue. This is a definite step up in competition for them. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will be battle-tested after playing Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa already.
Northwestern has scored on 30 of its 31 trips inside the 20, with the resulting 96.8 percent success rate ranking second in the country behind Florida State. The Cornhuskers sport the second-worst red-zone defense in the conference (tied for 107th in the country), allowing opponents to score 90 percent of the time they drive inside the 20. Nebraska has allowed 44 runs of more than 10 yards and opponents are rushing for an average of 5.3 yards on first down
|11-02-13||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4.5||Top||0-13||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -4.5
This is the perfect storm with Wake Forest set up for a huge letdown spot, while Syracuse is going to be very hungry for a win this weekend. I'll lay the small number on the Orange because of it.
Wake Forest is coming off a narrow 21-24 loss at Miami last week. They led most of the way but just couldn't hold on in the fourth quarter with the win. Of course, the only reason that game was close is because the Hurricanes did not show up because they were looking ahead to Florida State this week.
Because the game against Miami was close, Wake Forest is getting more respect than it should from oddsmakers heading into Syracuse. And, because the Demon Deacons have Florida State on deck, that makes this a sandwich game for them. Just like the Hurricanes did last week, the Demond Deacons will likely be looking ahead to the Seminoles.
Now for Syracuse, which is coming off its worst loss of the season in a 0-56 setback at Georgia Tech. It has had a bye week since that defeat to correct mistakes and to steam over it. You can bet the Orange will be putting their best foot forward Saturday, which will be good enough to take care of business against Wake Forest, who will suffer a hangover from last week's loss to Miami.
Clearly, Wake Forest is not a very good team. It lost 7-56 at Clemson, and 10-24 at Boston College in two of its four road games this year. Syracuse has some impressive showings, winning 24-10 at NC State, beating Tulane at home 52-17, and losing at Penn State 17-23. I've seen enough from the Orange to know that the Georgia Tech loss was more of an aberration than anything.
Syracuse is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games versus poor rushing teams that average less than 120 yards per game. The Orange are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Orange are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|11-02-13||Ohio State v. Purdue +32.5||56-0||Loss||-110||16 h 24 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +32.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are catching too many points at home Saturday against the Ohio State Buckeyes. While things have not gone as planned for Purdue this far, it has kept fighting. Now, this is its Super Bowl and a chance to compete against a Top 5 team in the country.
Purdue has played a couple of games this season that make me believe it can hang with the Buckeyes. It only lost 24-31 at home to Notre Dame as a 17-point underdog. It also only lost 0-14 at Michigan State as a 28-point dog last time out. It was only outgained by 68 yards by the Spartans behind a dominant defensive performance, limiting them to 294 total yards. This was a 7-0 game with 8:55 left to go in the 4th.
Now, with two weeks off since that game against Michigan State, Purdue is fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, Ohio State is tired after a brutal stretch which includes games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. Three of those games were decided by 10 points or less.
Sure, the Buckeyes blew out Penn State last week, but that's why I believe this line is inflated because the betting public has that blowout fresh in their minds. They are pounding the Buckeyes as a result, and I'll gladly play the role of contrarian here.
That's especially the case when you consider how tough Purdue has played Ohio State the past two seasons. Purdue beat Ohio State at home 26-23 in overtime in 2011 as a 7.5-point underdog. In 2012, the Boilermakers went into Ohio State and lost 22-29 as a 17-point dog in overtime. They actually outgained the Buckeyes 347-342 last year, limiting Braxton Miller to 9 of 20 passing for 113 yards and an interception, and 47 rushing yards on 12 carries.
The Boilermakers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Purdue. Roll with the Boilermakers Saturday.
|11-01-13||USC +4.5 v. Oregon State||31-14||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* USC/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on USC +4.5
The Oregon State Beavers are in a bit of a letdown spot here tonight. They are coming off a hard-fought game against Stanford, losing by a final of 12-20 at home. They will have a hard time getting back up from the map after such a physical game and on a short week.
Stanford sacked Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion eight times in that contest to push its sack total to 27 on the season. That's number is the exact same amount of sacks (27) as USC has on the season behind the play of one of the most dominant defensive lines in college football.
USC has been a completely different team since interim coach Ed Oregeron took over for the fired Lane Kiffin three games ago. It has gone 2-1 with its only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. It has outgained each of its three opponents in the process, beating Arizona 38-31 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and topping Utah 19-3.
Last week, the Trojans held the Utes to just 201 total yards while forcing four turnovers. Oregon State beat Utah too, but it needed overtime to do so and gave up a whopping 539 total yards back on September 14. The Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to the easy schedule that they have faced outside of Stanford and Utah.
The other six opponents OSU has faced have been Eastern Washington, Hawaii, San Diego State, Colorado, Washington State and California. They lost to Eastern Washington, and only beat San Diego State 34-30. Meanwhile, USC has already played the likes of Utah State, Arizona State, Arizona, Notre Dame and Utah and have managed to get through that daunting slate at 5-3.
USC is giving up just 19.2 points and 317.2 yards per game this season to rank 11th in the country in total defense. It only gives up 106.0 yards rushing and 211.9 passing and will have an answer for Mannion tonight with its ability to get after the opposing quarterback. Offensively, the Trojans are expected to get back perhaps the best receiver in the country in Marqise Lee tonight, which will be a huge boost.
Plays on road underdogs (USC) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet USC Friday.
|10-31-13||Rice +4 v. North Texas||16-28||Loss||-114||14 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rice +4
The North Texas Mean Green have been an excellent surprise story this season. However, they are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and I'll gladly fade them in this contest against a much stronger team in the Rice Owls.
When you look at North Texas' five wins this season, they have come against Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, LA Tech, Ball State and Idaho. The only impressive win in that bunch is Ball State, but the Cardinals turned theball over five times and essentially gave that game away in a 27-34 loss.
Rice is 6-2 this season with its only losses coming to Texas A&M and Houston. The Aggies are one of the best teams in the SEC, and they put up 31 points on them. They only lost 26-31 to the Cougars, who currently sit atop the American Athletic Conference with a 6-1 record.
I was huge on Rice coming into the season, believing that it was the best team in all of Conference USA with 19 starters back. At 6-2 on the season to this point, I see nothing to change my mind. The Owls will go out and prove that they are the best team in C-USA Thursday.
Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Rice is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games. The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven October games. The Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Owls. Take Rice Thursday.
|10-30-13||Cincinnati v. Memphis +3||34-21||Loss||-115||14 h 58 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/Memphis American Athletic ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +3
There's a reason why this line continues to drop despite the betting public being all over Cincinnati. The sharp money is on Memphis for good reason, and I'll gladly list several of those reasons below.
The public sees a small favorite like Cincinnati with a 5-2 record against a 1-5 team like Memphis and automatically jumps all over the team with a better record. There is a lot more than what meets the eye when you dig into it and look past the records.
Cincinnati has played one of the softest schedules in all of college football to this point. The seven teams that the Bearcats have played have been Purdue (1-6), Illinois (3-4), FCS Northwestern State (3-5), Miami Ohio (0-8), South Florida (2-5), Temple (1-7) and Connecticut (0-7). As you can see, it hasn't faced a team with a winning record yet. If you take out FCS opponent Northwestern State, the six FBS opponents that the Bearcats have played have a combined 7-37 record.
Miraculously, Cincinnati actually found a way to lose to two of those teams. Both were on the road in losses to Illinois (17-45) and South Florida (20-26). In fact, the Bearcats are 0-3 against the spread in road games this season. They fell to Illinois as a 7-point favorite, to South Florida as a 10.5-point favorite, and needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat winless Miami (Ohio) 14-0 as a 24.5-point favorite.
While Memphis is 1-5 right now, it has played a daunting schedule and could easily be at least 3-4 right now. The Tigers held second-half leads against co-conference leaders Houston and Central Florida before falling in each contest. Memphis lost its third straight game last time out in a 29-34 setback at home to a vastly underrated SMU team.
Memphis held UCF to just 270 total yards while outgaining it by by 123 yards in a 17-24 loss. The Tigers held Houston to 241 total yards and outgained the Cougars by 102 total yards, but found a way to lose by a final of 15-25. In fact, the Tigers have outgained four of their first six opponents, which is clearly the sign of a much better team than their 1-5 record would indicate.
The Tigers feature the 13th-best defense in the entire country, giving up just 331.0 total yards per game. That's impressive when you consider the six opponents it has faced combined to average 441 yards on the season, so they are holding them to 110 yards less than their season averages.
Looking at Cincinnati's numbers compared to the quality of the opposition shows that this team is a fraud. The Bearcats are gaining 467 yards per game on offense against seven defenses that combine to give up an average of 456 yards per game. The Bearcats are only giving up 287 total yards per game, but the seven offenses they have faced combine to average just 298 yards per game.
Plays against road favorites (CINCINNATI) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.
Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a win by 21 or more points. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off three straight losses to conference rivals. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Memphis Wednesday.
|10-26-13||Florida Atlantic +24.5 v. Auburn||10-45||Loss||-110||65 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida Atlantic +24.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. They have gone a ridiculous 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games overall. The betting public hasn
|10-26-13||South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5||27-24||Loss||-110||65 h 36 m||Show|
15* South Carolina/Missouri ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Missouri -2.5
The Missouri Tigers have been underrated all season. They have opened 7-0 and are really the only team left in the SEC aside from Alabama that has a legitimate shot to play for the BCS Championship. They have also gone 6-1 against the spread in the process with their only loss coming in a 22-point win over Arkansas State as a 23-point favorite. In fact, the Tigers have won all seven of their games this season by 15 points or more, so it
|10-26-13||Baylor -34.5 v. Kansas||59-14||Win||100||65 h 36 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Baylor -34.5
When you can put up points at will, you can cover five-touchdown spreads like this one with ease. That was the case last week as Baylor topped Iowa State 71-7 as a 33-point favorite in an absolute laugher. I would argue that Iowa State is a better team than Kansas, too.
Baylor is putting up a ridiculous 64.7 points and 713.8 yards per game to rank 1st in the country in scoring and total offense. The defense is improved, too, giving up 16.2 points and 317.3 yards per game to rank 10th in total defense.
Bryce Petty is completing 71.0 percent of his passes for 2,033 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 51 yards and five scores. Lache Seastrunk is a Heisman Trophy contender, rushing for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 per carry. Antwan Goodley (37 receptions, 861 yards, 8 TD) and Tevin Reese (29, 714, 6 TD) form one of the most explosive receiving duos in the country.
Kansas has been atrocious this season with a 2-4 start that includes wins over lowly South Dakota and Louisiana Tech. The Jayhawks lost at home to Texas Tech by a final of 16-54, which is a team that runs a similar offense to Baylor with the spread attack. The Red Raiders racked up 518 yards while limiting the Jayhawks to 273 in the win.
Kansas is scoring 18.3 points and averaging 288.0 yards per game to rank 119th in total offense. It will have a hard time keeping up with the Bears with that kind of offensive production. That's especially the case when you consider that the Jayhawks do not have a passing game. Kansas ranks 113th in the country in passing offense at 157.8 yards per game. When it gets behind, it won't be able to throw to catch up, so it will keep falling further behind.
Plays on any team (BAYLOR)
|10-26-13||Buffalo -1.5 v. Kent State||41-21||Win||100||61 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -1.5
I was high on Buffalo coming into the season and it hasn't let me down. After road losses to two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Baylor, Buffalo has reeled off five straight victories with the last four coming by 28 or more points. They are a clear contender to win the MAC this season, and will take another step in the right direction with a win at Kent State Saturday.
Kent State came into this season way overrated due to making it to the MAC Title last season. However, the Golden Flashes lost a ton of talent from that team as well as head coach Darrell Hazell. They have opened 2-6 with five of those losses coming by double-digits. That includes a 21-38 loss at South Alabama last week. Now, the Flashes could be without starting quarterback Colin Reardon, who is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,199 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Reardon is questionable with an ankle injury after missing last week's game against South Alabama.
Buffalo features 16 returning starters and some of the best players in the entire country that few have heard about. Two-time first-team All-MAC linebacker Khalil Mack anchors a defense that is giving up 23.1 points per game this season. 2011 first-team All-MAC running back Branden Oliver leads and offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game. Oliver has rushed for 689 yards and five touchdowns this season. Then there's arguably the best receiver in the MAC in Alex Neutz, who was a first-team All-MAC receiver last year and has 35 receptions for 543 yards and six touchdowns in 2013.
Kent State has been atrocious on both sides of the football. It is scoring just 19.1 points and averaging 347.5 yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in total offense. It is giving up 30.9 points and 468.0 yards per game to rank 109th in total defense as well. Its only wins this season have come against Liberty (17-10) and Western Michigan (32-14).
Plays against a home team (KENT ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 against the spread in their last four vs. a team with a losing record. Buffalo is 14-6-1 against the number in its last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Home-field advantage means little in this series considering the road team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Golden Flashes. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|10-26-13||Connecticut +22.5 v. Central Florida||Top||17-62||Loss||-106||58 h 37 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +22.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with 0-6 Connecticut. As a result, oddsmakers are going to be forced to inflate its numbers in the coming weeks, which is certainly the case here against Central Florida. Four of its six losses this season have come by 15 points or less, including setbacks against Michigan (21-24) and South Florida (10-13).
The Huskies made a coaching change in that game against USF and should have won. They outgained the Bulls by 128 yards in that contest but simply gave the game away. While they lost 16-41 at Cincinnati last week, the offense looked much sharper. Tim Boyle threw for 310 yards against a very good Bearcat defense, but he was picked off three times, which proved to be costly. The defense has actually played well for most of the season, giving up 377.7 yards per game to rank a respectable 48th in total defense.
This is a huge letdown spot for Central Florida. It is coming off a big win over AAC favorite Louisville last week in which it erased a 21-point deficit in the second half to win 38-35. It
|10-26-13||Oklahoma State -12.5 v. Iowa State||Top||58-27||Win||100||58 h 37 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -12.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are still very much alive for the Big 12 Title in this wide open conference. They did lose to West Virginia in their conference opener, but they bounced back nicely with two straight wins over Kansas State and TCU. Now they get to go up against an Iowa State team that is just 1-5 on the season and clearly down this year. The Cyclones are lacking confidence after a 7-71 loss at Baylor last weekend, and things won
|10-26-13||Louisville -20 v. South Florida||Top||34-3||Win||100||58 h 37 m||Show|
20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -20
The Louisville Cardinals aren
|10-25-13||Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61.5||Top||20-37||Win||100||48 h 48 m||Show|
25* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 61.5
The books have set the bar way too high in this game between Boise State and BYU Friday night. I look for a defensive battle similar to the 7-6 game these two teams played last year. Boise State gained 261 yards in the win, while BYU was held to 200 yards in the loss. These defenses are much better than they are getting credit for. Meanwhile, I believe this line is inflated due to BYU's 47-46 win at Houston last weekend.
Boise State is giving up 22.9 points and 392.1 yards per game to rank 59th in the country in total defense. Even with allowing 46 points to Houston last week, BYU is only giving up 21.4 points and 366.0 yards per game on the season to rank 36th in the country in total defense. It has held some great offenses down this year like Texas (21 points), Utah (20), Utah State (14) and Georgia Tech (20).
Both teams prefer the run in this one, which is huge considering both defenses are stout against the run. BYU ranks 14th in the country in rushing offense at 263.0 yards per game, while Boise State is 21st in rushing offense at 224.0 yards per game.
The seven opponents that BYU has faced average 201 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. Well, BYU has held those seven opponents to an average of 135.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry to rank 32nd against the run.
The seven opponents that Boise State has faced average 181 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Well, the Broncos have allowed those seven opponents to gain just 152.1 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry to rank 53rd in the country against the run.
Boise State just lost its starting quarterback in Joe Southwick to a broken ankle. That's a huge loss considering Southwick was completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,589 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
Junior Grant Hedrick made his first start of the season against Nevada last week. It's clear that the Broncos are going to be conservative with Hedrick under center considering he threw for just 150 yards with an interception on only 21 attempts in a 34-17 win over Nevada. They ran the ball 46 times in that contest.
Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-11 (76.6%) over the last 10 seasons.
Boise State is 32-13 UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game since 1992. The Broncos are 24-7 UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 yards per carry or more since 1992. BYU is 16-4 UNDER in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. BYU is 27-13 UNDER versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game since 1992. The Cougars are 16-5 UNDER after allowing 42 points or more last game since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|10-24-13||Marshall -8 v. Middle Tenn State||Top||49-51||Loss||-110||22 h 43 m||Show|
20* Marshall/MTSU Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall -8
The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the best non-BCS teams in the country in 2013. Their only losses came on the road against Virginia Tech in overtime, as well as a 31-34 loss at Ohio despite outgaining the Bobcats by 147 total yards in that contest. Middle Tennessee is very fortunate to be 3-4 on the season considering it has been outgained in each of its last six games.
|10-22-13||Louisiana-Lafayette -2.5 v. Arkansas State||Top||23-7||Win||100||26 h 3 m||Show|
20* LA-Lafayette/Arkansas State No-Doubt Rout on LA-Lafayette -2.5
After losing two tough road games at Arkansas and Kansas State to open the season, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been rolling since. They have won four in a row, including back-to-back blowout victories over Texas State (48-24) and Western Kentucky (37-20) to take over first place in the Sun Belt. They will certainly be out for revenge against the two-time defending conference champion Red Wolves.
Last year, the Rajin' Cajuns simply gave the game away to Arkansas State, losing by a final of 27-50. They committed a whopping five turnovers, finishing -5 in turnover differential in that contest. Terrance Broadway threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns in that game, but he also threw three costly interceptions. Look for Broadway and company to take much better care of the football in this one, and to get back to their running game.
The Rajin' Cajuns rushed for 254 yards against a very good Western Kentucky defense last week. They rank 21st in the country in rushing offense at 223.3 yards per game. Arkansas State ranks 93rd in rushing defense, allowing 196.7 yards per game and a whopping 5.1 per carry. The Red Wolves allowed 301 yards in a 9-38 loss to Auburn, 329 yards in a 7-31 loss to Memphis, and 239 yards in a 19-41 setback at Missouri. Their three wins have been unimpressive with victories over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Troy and Idaho. They even gave up 614 yards in their 41-34 win over Troy and only won due to being +4 in turnover differential.
Lafayette is 7-0 against the spread vs. good passing teams that average at least 250 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Rajin' Cajuns are 12-2 against the number in their last 14 road games versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game. Arkansas State is 6-20 against the number in its last 26 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a S.U. win. The Rajin' Cajuns are 21-8 against the number in their last 29 road games.
|10-19-13||Washington State +39.5 v. Oregon||Top||38-62||Win||100||57 h 48 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +39.5
The Cougars are certainly improved in the second year under head coach Mike Leach. They have opened 4-3 despite playing a very tough schedule with their only losses coming to Auburn, Stanford and Oregon State. They have an impressive 10-7 road win at USC on their resume, as well as a 44-22 victory at California. They have certainly played their best football on the road as they also lost to Auburn 24-31 as a 14-point underdog despite outgaining the Tigers 464-396 for the game.
Leach has implemented his Air Raid offense from Texas Tech to Washington State with perfection. The Cougars are putting up 29.9 points and 413.3 yards per game to rank 66th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Connor Halliday is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,241 yards with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the season. Gabe Marks is a freak at receiver, catching 46 balls for 512 yards and four scores.
The defense has been improved this season as well, limiting opponents to an average of 25.2 points per game. The strength is a run defense that ranks 40th in allowing 144 yards per game and 3.8 per carry, which will be huge against Oregon. The Ducks will likely be without top running back De'Anthony Thomas once again Saturday as he is listed as doubtful.
Few teams have played Oregon as tough as Washington State over the past three years. In fact, The Ducks have only been able to beat the Cougars by 25, 15 and 20 points in the last three meetings, respectively. The last two meetings were scarily close in the box scores. In 2011, Washington State outgained Oregon 462-454 in a 28-43 road loss. In 2012, the Cougars were only outgained 402-469 in a 26-51 home loss that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Washington State is coming off a bad loss to Oregon State, but it simply gave that game away by committing six turnovers and giving up 35 unanswered points in the final 17 minutes. That 22-point loss actually plays in our favor here considering Mike Leach is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in road games off a loss of 21 or more points to a conference opponent in all games he has coached.
This could be a big letdown and look ahead spot for Oregon. It is coming off its best win of the season with a 45-24 triumph at Washington. Now, it has No. 9 UCLA on deck and Stanford after that. The Ducks could easily be overlooking the Cougars, which is something they have done each of the last three years.
|10-19-13||Duke v. Virginia -2||Top||35-22||Loss||-110||50 h 20 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -2
The Virginia Cavaliers have played an absolutely brutal schedule in 2013, which is the biggest reason for their 2-4 start. Their four losses have come against the likes of Oregon, Pittsburgh, Ball State and Maryland. They even have a home win over a very good BYU team on their resume as well. They played well last week at Maryland, falling 26-27 as a 6-point underdog despite gaining 505 yards of total offense. This is clearly a team that is much better than its record would indicate.
Duke is a bit of a fraud at 4-2 on the season. Its four victories have come against NC Central, Memphis, Troy and Navy. Virginia is an excellent running team that is averaging 188.8 yards per game to rank 47th in the country in rushing offense. Duke has given up an average of 224.5 yards per game on the ground in the last four weeks. The Blue Devils rank 81st in the country against the run, giving up 179.7 yards per game on the season.
Virginia boasts a very solid defense that is giving up just 361.8 yards per game to rank 37th in the country in total defense. That
|10-19-13||UCLA +6 v. Stanford||10-24||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on UCLA +6
The UCLA Bruins have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college football in 2013. They have opened 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread with impressive road wins over Nebraska (41-21) and Utah (34-27). That
|10-19-13||Florida v. Missouri +3.5||17-36||Win||100||47 h 8 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +3.5
The Missouri Tigers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their impressive 6-0 start. They have gone 5-1 against the spread in the process, with their only non-cover coming in a 22-point victory over Arkansas State as a 23-point favorite. They are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition with all six victories coming by 15 points or more. That
|10-19-13||Purdue +28 v. Michigan State||0-14||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +28
The Michigan State Spartans are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. This line is an over-inflation due to Michigan State's 42-28 win over Indiana last week, coupled with Purdue's 7-44 loss to Nebraska. I believe there is a ton of value with the Boilermakers in this one, and I'll back them because of it.
The Spartans need to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us, and I don't believe they are capable of it. Aside from their 55-17 victory over Youngstown State, the Spartans' biggest win this season came by a final of 21-6 at home over South Florida as a 21-point favorite. They also failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in their opener with a 26-13 victory against lowly Western Michigan.
Michigan State simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to cover big spreads like this. It has been held to 30.5 points and 374.7 total yards per game this season to rank 87th in the country in total offense. There's no question that the Spartans have one of the best defenses in the country, but their offense isn't going to put up enough points to cover this inflated number.
Purdue has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games, so the betting public is obviously not willing to back this team. It was only a 21.5-point underdog at Wisconsin on September 21, and now it is a 28-point dog to Michigan State. Comparing these two spreads alone show that this line is inflated when you consider that Wisconsin is a better team than Michigan State.
The Boilermakers have shown some promise offensively in recent weeks. They put up 524 total yards in a loss to Northern Illinois on September 28 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The defense has been better than average too, giving up 417 total yards per game against six offenses that are combining to average 444 yards per game on the season.
The biggest reason for Purdue's slow start is a brutal schedule that has been much tougher than that of Michigan State. It has already played the likes of Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Nebraska. Those five teams all have winning records and have combined for a 23-7 record on the season. Only two of Michigan State's six opponents thus far have winning records in Notre Dame and Iowa.
This has been a very closely-contested series. Purdue only lost 31-35 at Michigan State as a 20.5-point underdog in their most recent meeting. Each of the last 12 meetings since 1997 have been decided by 24 points or less with eight of those contests behind decided by 10 points or fewer. That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Boilermakers pertaining to today's spread of 28.
The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Michigan State is 2-9 against the spread as a home favorite over the last two seasons. It is only winning 23.9 to 17.4 on average in this spot, or by 6.5 points per game. Roll with Purdue Saturday.
|10-19-13||Connecticut v. Cincinnati -13||16-41||Win||100||47 h 49 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -13
The Cincinnati Bearcats have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country. After opening 3-0 at home this season, they are now 50-14 at home over the past 11 years. The have already rolled Purdue (42-7), Northwestern State (66-9) and Temple (38-20) at home this season. They are outscoring their opponents at home by an average of 36.7 points per game in 2013.
Cincinnati will be up against a Connecticut team that is one of the worst in all of college football. The Huskies have opened 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in 2013 with three of those losses coming by double-digits. They lost 10-13 at home to South Florida last week as a 3.5-point favorite.
The Huskies are in shambles right now with the firing of head coach Paul Pasqualoni after four games. Their worst loss came on the road on September 28 in a 12-41 setback at Buffalo. It was their lone road game of the season, which makes their 0-5 start even worse when you consider they have played four home games compared to just one on the road. I expect a similar beat down at the hands of Cincinnati in this one.
The Huskies are averaging 16.4 points and 290.4 yards per game to rank a woeful 117th in the country in total offense. They are going to have a very hard time moving the ball on one of the best defenses in the land. Cincinnati is giving up just 17.8 points and 271.8 yards per game to rank 6th in total defense. The offense hasn
|10-19-13||SMU v. Memphis -3||Top||34-29||Loss||-120||47 h 49 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3
The Tigers may be the best 1-4 team in college football. Their four losses have come against Duke (14-28), Middle Tennessee State (15-17), UCF (17-24) and Houston (15-25.). In their best performance of the season, they beat a very good Arkansas State team 31-7 at home on September 21. Memphis outgained Houston by 102 yards, UCF by 123 yards and Middle Tennessee by 66 yards, but found a way to lose those three games when they really should have won given the numbers.
Memphis has a massive edge on defense in this one. It is giving up just 20.2 points and 305.2 yards per game to rank 11th in the entire country in total defense. It is giving up just 91.0 yards on the ground and 214.2 through the air. SMU, meanwhile, is allowing 43.2 points and 445.8 yards per game to rank 98th in total defense. The Mustangs are 1-4 on the season with their only win coming against Montana State by a final of 31-30 at home. They have allowed 41 or more points in their four losses.
Plays on any team (MEMPHIS)
|10-19-13||TCU v. Oklahoma State -7||10-24||Win||100||47 h 48 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State -7
The Cowboys are 4-1 and still have a ton to play for in the wide open Big 12 despite an early loss to West Virginia. With two Big 12 losses already, TCU really is behind the eight ball in terms of competing for a conference championship in 2013.
Oklahoma State will come into this game on two weeks
|10-18-13||Central Florida +13 v. Louisville||Top||38-35||Win||100||44 h 35 m||Show|
20* UCF/Louisville AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida +13
|10-17-13||Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +9.5||27-23||Win||101||19 h 10 m||Show|
15* Miami/UNC ESPN Thursday ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +9.5
|10-15-13||Louisiana-Lafayette v. Western Kentucky -4||Top||37-20||Loss||-110||9 h 55 m||Show|
20* LA-Lafayette/WKU Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky -4
After opening the season with an impressive 35-26 win over Kentucky, the Hilltoppers dropped their next two road contests at Tennessee and South Alabama. They have been a completely different team since, reeling off three straight blowout victories over Morgan State (58-17), Navy (19-7) and Louisiana-Monroe (31-10). This team is hitting its stride under first-year head coach, Bobby Petrino.
Western Kentucky is scoring 31.2 points and averaging a whopping 473.7 yards per game to rank 30th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Brandon Doughty has thrived in Petrino
|10-12-13||California +25.5 v. UCLA Bruins||Top||10-37||Loss||-110||44 h 11 m||Show|
20* Cal/UCLA Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +25.5
The California Bears are simply catching too many points against UCLA Saturday. You won't find many teams that have played a tougher schedule than Cal to this point, which is the biggest reason for its 1-4 start. It has actually handled itself well, losing 30-44 to Northwestern, 34-52 to Ohio State, 16-55 to Oregon and 22-44 to Washington State.
Many of those final scores were very misleading. Cal actually outgained Northwestern 548-508 and Washington State 585-570. It was only outgained by Ohio State 503-608 and by Oregon 325-383. As you can see, only one of those losses came by more than 22 points. I simply believe that UCLA is overvalued as a 25-point favorite here considering it has faced such an easy schedule to this point.
Cal is certainly battle-tested and we'll always have a chance for a cover in this game due to its electric offense. The Bears rank 18th in the country in total offense at 515.4 yards per game, including 4th in passing offense at 402.6 yards per game. Freshman quarterback Jared Goff has already thrown for 1,801 yards and nine touchdowns against five interceptions. Chris Harper (37 receptions, 558 yards, 4 TD) and Bryce Treggs (36, 418, 1 TD) are absolute studs at receiver.
My biggest reason for betting against UCLA and on Cal in this one is the fact that the Bruins are in a huge letdown spot. They have Stanford on deck next week, whom they lost two twice last season, including a setback in the Pac-12 Title Game. They also have Oregon the week after. There's no question that UCLA will be looking ahead to those two games, and overlooking 1-4 Cal.
The Golden Bears absolutely dominated UCLA last season by a final of 43-17. They put up 481 total yards, while limiting the Bruins to just 381 total yards. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley threw four interceptions in the loss. Zach Maynard threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns in the win for Cal, and I look for Goff to have a big day as well against this suspect UCLA defense.
UCLA is 3-13 against the spread off two consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992. It is coming back to lose 27.2 to 29.2 in this spot. The Bruins are 16-35-1 against the number in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record. The underdog is 12-4-1 against the spread in the last 17 meetings in this series.
You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that UCLA beat Cal by more than 17 points, which was a 56-17 victory. In fact, that was the only time in the last 21 meetings that UCLA beat Cal by more than 18 points. That makes for a 20-1 system backing the Golden Bears when you factor in the spread for this game. Bet California Saturday.
|10-12-13||Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +6||Top||41-38||Win||100||42 h 12 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Ole Miss SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss +6
Few teams in the country have faced a schedule as tough as the one that Ole Miss has been up against in the early going. In all reality, it has done an excellent job of opening 3-2 considering it has already faced four road games against the likes of Alabama, Auburn, Texas and Vanderbilt. This is still one of the better teams in the country that returned 19 starters from last year. Now, the Rebels get to start a stretch in which they play six straight home games.
Ole Miss clearly wants revenge from last year
|10-12-13||Oregon v. Washington +14||45-24||Loss||-110||38 h 38 m||Show|
15* Oregon/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +14
|10-12-13||Florida +7 v. LSU||6-17||Loss||-110||37 h 9 m||Show|
15* Florida/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Florida +7
Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Tyler Murphy in as their starting quarterback. He led them to a comeback win over Tennessee by a final of 31-17 after replacing the injured Jeff Driskel on September 21. Since then, he led the Gators to a 24-7 victory at Kentucky as an 11-point favorite, and a 30-10 home victory over Arkansas as a 12.5-point favorite.
Murphy is making plays and not turning the ball over like Driskel did. Murphy is completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 530 yards and five touchdowns against one interception, while also rushing for 135 yards and two scores. Matt Jones has recently returned at running back to give the offense a boost as well. He has rushed for 322 yards and two scores. Solomon Patton (19 receptions, 348 yards, 4 TD), Trey Burton (23, 282, 1 TD) and Quinton Dunbar (18, 274) are all solid targets outside for Murphy.
|10-12-13||Boston College +24.5 v. Clemson||Top||14-24||Win||100||37 h 16 m||Show|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College +24.5
The Boston College Eagles are clearly an improved team in 2013. They brought back 18 starters and have gotten off to an impressive 3-2 start this year. They have improved as the season has gone on with their last two performances being their best two heading into this one. Boston College only lost by a final of 34-48 at Florida State as a 24-point underdog on September 28. It put up 407 total yards on a very good FSU defense, which shut out Maryland 63-0 last week.
Boston College amassed 523 total yards in a 48-27 beat down of Army as a 12.5-point favorite last weekend. Quarterback Chase Rettig is gaining confidence with each start, completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 896 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions on the season. However, the biggest playmaker on the Eagles is running back Andre Williams. He has already rushed for 768 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Receiver Alex Amidon is a beast as well, catching 32 balls for 431 yards and two touchdowns.
This is a huge letdown spot for Clemson. It has a meeting lined up with No. 6 Florida State next week on October 19. The Tigers will clearly be overlooking Boston College and looking ahead to that showdown with the Seminoles. That
|10-12-13||Missouri +7.5 v. Georgia||41-26||Win||100||34 h 37 m||Show|
15* Missouri/Georgia ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7.5
The Missouri Tigers are the real deal in 2013. While they haven
|10-12-13||Nebraska v. Purdue +14.5||44-7||Loss||-110||34 h 40 m||Show|
15* Big Ten Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +14.5
|10-11-13||Temple v. Cincinnati UNDER 51.5||Top||20-38||Loss||-110||21 h 33 m||Show|
20* Temple/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51.5
I fully expect a defensive battle Friday night between Temple and Cincinnati in American Athletic Conference action. While Cincinnati may get to 30 points by game's end, I don't see Temple being able to surpass 10-14 points in this one. I expect somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-10 final.
Cincinnati has been atrocious offensively in games outside of Purdue and Northwestern. I managed just 17 points against Illinois, scored 14 points against Miami Ohio with both touchdowns coming in the fourth quarter, and managed just 20 points against winless South Florida.
What has been the saving grace for the Bearcats is a defense that is one of the best in the entire country. They are giving up just 17.4 points and 251.0 total yards per game to rank 4th in the FBS in total defense.
The Bearcats have not allowed an offensive touchdown since the second quarter of the Northwestern State game on September 14, a span of 10 quarters. In the lost to South Florida last time out, they gave up a fumble recovery for a score, and a 75-yard return for at touchdown on a blocked field goal. This defense is the real deal.
I look for this fierce Cincinnati defense to completely shut down a very suspect Temple offense. In fact, the Owls are scoring just 15.8 points per game while averaging 342.4 yards per game to rank 102nd in the FBS in total offense.
Four out of five of Temple's games this season have seen 50 or less combined points. Those four were losses to Notre Dame (6-28), Houston (13-22), Idaho (24-26) and Louisville (7-30). Three of Cincinnati's five games have seen 49 or less combined points. They were wins over Purdue (42-7) and Miami Ohio (14-0), as well as a loss to South Florida (20-26).
Last year, Cincinnati beat Temple 34-10 on the road as an 8-point favorite with a total set of 55 points. Cincinnati outgained Temple 472-267 in the win. I look for the Bearcats to get a big lead early into the 3rd quarter, and to run out the clock with their solid rushing attack that is averaging 200 yards per game.
The UNDER is 35-20 in Cincinnati's last 55 home games. The UNDER is 24-9 in Cincinnati's last 33 October games. The UNDER is 12-5 in Temple's last 17 road games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bearcats last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Owls last 6 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|10-10-13||Arizona +6.5 v. USC||31-38||Loss||-106||11 h 9 m||Show|
15* Arizona/USC Pac-12 BAILOUT on Arizona +6.5
This has been an extremely competitive series in recent years. Each of the last seven meetings between USC and Arizona have been decided by 7 points or less, including last year
|10-10-13||Rutgers v. Louisville UNDER 56||10-24||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* Rutgers/Louisville ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Louisville and Rutgers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the theme in this rivalry in recent years.
Each of the last four meetings between Rutgers and Louisville have seen 53 or less combined points scored. In fact, the last two years, they have combined for 37 and 30 points, respectively. Louisville beat Rutgers 20-17 on the road last season as both offenses were held in check for a second straight year.
Both Louisville and Rutgers have a key loss on offense heading into this one. Rutgers is expected to be without leading rusher Paul James, who has ran for 573 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Louisville is expected to be without leading receiver DaVante Parker, who has caught 21 balls for 375 yards and six scores.
Louisville boasts one of the best defenses in the entire country. It is giving up just 6.8 points and 228.0 total yards per game to rank 3rd in the FBS in total defense. It has held Rutgers to 17, 14 and 13 points in the last three meetings in this series.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (RUTGERS) - average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=280 YPG) are 77-38 (67%) over the last 10 seasons.
The UNDER is 19-8 in Rutgers' last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Scarlet Knights last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 13-5 in Louisville's last 18 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-05-13||Washington Huskies +7.5 v. Stanford||Top||28-31||Win||100||103 h 45 m||Show|
20* Washington/Stanford ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Washington +7.5
The Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013. They returned 18 starters and 58 lettermen, and this is clearly Steve Sarkisian
|10-05-13||Oregon v. Colorado +39.5||57-16||Loss||-110||40 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado +39.5
The Colorado Buffaloes are certainly improved under first-year head coach Mike MacIntyre. After winning just one game all of last season, MacIntyre has already doubled that win total while leading his team to a 2-1 start. He has great credentials from his time at San Jose State. He took a team that had only one winning season in nine years to 16 wins over his final 22 games there. MacIntyre brought six assistants and both of his coordinators over with him from San Jose State to Colorado.
The improvements have been dramatic, especially offensively as the Buffaloes are averaging 32.0 points and 412.7 total yards per game. MacIntyre had high-octane offenses at San Jose State in his final two seasons there as well. Connor Wood has been solid at the quarterback position. The former Texas transfer is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 887 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He loves having wide receiver Paul Richardson back after the junior missed all of last season with an injury. Richardson already has 26 receptions for 487 yards and five touchdowns through three games.
Oregon is already starting to just go through the motions after a start in which it has blown out its first four opponents. After taking a 55-3 lead against California last week, it nearly allowed the Bears to come from behind to cover the 38.5-point spread. In fact, the Bears scored 13 points in garbage time late to lose by a final of 16-55 and miss covering the spread by a half-point due to a missed PAT. Oregon has been playing its reserves late in games, and that could very well happen again Saturday against Colorado, which could allow the Buffaloes to get a back-door cover if need be.
Big news has come out of Eugene in that starting running back De
|10-05-13||Central Florida v. Memphis +10||Top||24-17||Win||100||49 h 45 m||Show|
25* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +10
|10-05-13||Clemson v. Syracuse +14||Top||49-14||Loss||-106||37 h 29 m||Show|
20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +14
The Syracuse Orange have done just fine under first-year head coach Scott Shafer, who was the defensive coordinator here over the last four years before getting the promotion in 2013. This is a team that won eight games last year and is much better than they had gotten credit for coming into the season. Sure, they are just 2-2, but both of their losses came on the road against superior Big Ten opponents in Penn State and Northwestern. They hung tough against the Nittany Lions in a 17-23 loss, and their game against the Wildcats was much closer than the score would indicate as they racked up 434 total yards in the loss.
Syracuse has opened 2-0 at home this season with blowout victories over Wagner (54-0) and Tulane (52-17). It has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country inside the Dome. In fact, it is 6-1 at home over the past two seasons with its only loss coming to Northwestern (41-42) by a single point. It even beat then-No. 11 Louisville at home 45-26 last season. All Louisville did was go on to win a BCS Bowl over Florida and open 4-0 in 2013 as well.
Clemson struggled in its only road game this season, winning 26-14 at NC State as a 12-point favorite. It only outgained the Wolfpack 415-378 in the win. Syracuse has been very strong on both sides of the ball in 2013. It is scoring 37.5 points per game while ranking 55th in the country in total offense (423.5 yards/game). It is allowing just 22.0 points per game while ranking 32nd in total defense (337.7 yards/game).
The offense has exploded with the insertion of Terrel Hunt into the starting lineup against Wagner in Week 3. The sophomore is completing 76.7 percent of his passes for 462 yards with seven touchdowns without an interception this season. "We have a little more chemistry with [Hunt] because he was here in the springtime when we were going through the new offense," tailback Jerome Smith said. "Between extending plays and our chemistry being better, that's the difference."
Syracuse has had two full weeks to prepare for Clemson having last played on September 21. The Orange are an impressive 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a bye week. Syracuse is 6-0-1 against the number in its last seven home games. The Orange are 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 home games off a home win by 17 points or more. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|10-05-13||North Carolina State v. Wake Forest +7.5||13-28||Win||100||37 h 29 m||Show|
15* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +7.5
While the Demon Deacons are off to just a 2-3 start in 2013, they did go into Army and beat the Black Knights 25-11 as a 1.5-point favorite. This is a team that returned 15 starters from last year and should continue to improve as the season goes on. I do like what I
|10-05-13||Ohio v. Akron +5||43-3||Loss||-109||36 h 58 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special Akron +5
The Akron Zips are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country due to their 1-4 start this season. That start can be attributed to a schedule that has seen the likes of UCF, Michigan and Bowling Green on the road, as well as LA Lafayette and FCS power James Madison at home. Remember, the Zips were just one play away from beating Michigan in the Big House, falling by a final of 24-28 as a 35-point underdog.
This Zips had their chances against Bowling Green and Louisiana Lafayette, too. They led Bowling Green 14-10 at halftime before eventually falling 14-31 on the road. They fell 30-35 at home to a very good Louisiana team as a 7.5-point underdog. They were only outgained 455-460 in that defeat. They have certainly played some great football this season and are hungry for that first conference victory Saturday when the Ohio Bobcats come into town.
Conversely, the Bobcats are way overrated due to their 3-1 start. All three of their victories came at home, and they easily could have lost two of them as they squeaked by both North Texas (27-21) and Marshall (34-31). In that win over the Thundering Herd, the Bobcats were thoroughly ouplayed, getting outgained by 147 total yards for the game. However, that win over Marshall is earning them a lot more respect than they deserve, because ultimately they should have lost. In its lone road game this season, Ohio was throttled 7-49 at Louisville.
Ohio has some huge injury problems heading into this game with Akron. While the betting public pays attention to injuries to skill players, they rarely factor in injuries along the offensive and defensive lines, even though those players can be just as important to a team. Well, Ohio is going to be without FOUR, count it, FOUR starting offensive linemen Saturday against Akron. The Bobcats will be a mess offensively because of it, and I look for Akron's improved defense to take advantage.
Akron only lost 28-34 at Ohio last year as an 18.5-point underdog. It actually outgained the Bobcats 456-441 for the game. Jawaan Chisolm rushed for 177 yards in the loss. I look for Chisolm and Kyle Pohl, who is completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 1,072 yards and eight touchdowns to six interceptions this year, to have huge games against this Ohio defense. The Bobcats are giving up 423.5 total yards per game against a much softer schedule than Akron has faced.
Ohio is 1-9 against the spread after scoring 37 or more points in its last game over the last three seasons. The Bobcats are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight conference games. Ohio is 1-6 against the number in its last seven road games. The Bobcats are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a 27-3 system backing the Zips. Bet Akron Saturday.
|10-05-13||Texas Tech v. Kansas +17||54-16||Loss||-115||34 h 58 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas +17
The Kansas Jayhawks are an improved team in 2013 under second-year head coach Charlie Weis. He did an excellent job of going out and nabbing numerous talented recruits from the JUCO level. It is paying off thus far as Kansas has doubled its win total from last season already. This is a team that lost five games last year by a touchdown or less, including a 34-41 road loss to Texas Tech in double-overtime as a 24-point underdog.
Texas Tech is overrated due to its 4-0 start that has featured wins over the likes of SMU, Stephen F Austin and Texas State. Even its 20-10 win over TCU doesn
|10-04-13||BYU +6.5 v. Utah State||Top||31-14||Win||100||76 h 26 m||Show|
25* BYU/Utah State Instate Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on BYU +6.5
The Utah State Aggies are finally getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. Now, the books have over-adjusted in listing Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite in this instate rivalry. There is a ton of value with this line on the underdog BYU Cougars, who could easily be 4-0 right now as their two losses to Virginia (16-19) and Utah (13-20) came by a combined 10 points. In fact, the Cougars outgained both opponents despite losing those games and simply gave them away.
BYU has played a very tough schedule thus far as it has had no gimmes in games against Middle Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia. It took care of business against Middle Tennessee (37-10) and Texas (40-21), outgaining those opponents by 274 and 234 total yards, respectively. Statistically, this is one of the best teams in the country. BYU ranks 22nd in the FBS in total offense at 492.5 yards per game, and 24th in total defense at 320.5 yards per game. Once again, you have to factor in the difficulty of their schedule thus far to appreciate how impressive those numbers really are.
A closer look at the numbers really shows how good they have performed. The four opponents that they have played have allowed an average of 404 yards per game on the season, and the Cougars have bested that by 88 yards (492). The four opponents that they have faced have averaged 418 yards of offense on the season, and they have bested that by 98 yards (320). Taysom Hill has thrown for 741 yards on the season, while also rushing for a team-high 565 yards and six touchdowns. He is going to be very difficult to stop Friday night.
Bronco Mendenhall is 8-0 against the spread in road games vesus good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of BYU. BYU is 8-0 against the number in its last eight games as an underdog. The Cougars are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 vs. Mountain West Conference opponents. The Cougars are 7-0 against the number in their last seven games after committing three or more turnovers in their previous game. These four trends combine for a 33-1 system backing the Cougars. Also, BYU has gone 22-2 straight up in its last 24 meetings with Utah State. Bet BYU Friday.
|10-03-13||Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Monroe OVER 48||Top||31-10||Loss||-110||21 h 20 m||Show|
20* CFB Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Western Kentucky/LA-Monroe OVER 48
The books have set the bar too low in this Sun Belt showdown between Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Monroe. Both teams are coming off low scoring games over the weekend which has kept this total way lower than it should be. WKU beat Navy 19-7, and LA-Monroe lost 14-31 to Tulane. This has created some very nice line value on the OVER in what has been a very high-scoring series between these teams of late.
Under the guidance of offensive mastermind Bobby Petrino, Western Kentucky has been putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the football all season. It is scoring 31.2 points and averaging 462.4 total yards per game to rank 44th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Brandon Doughty is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards and five touchdowns. Antonio Andrews, arguably the most underrated player in the entire country, has rushed for 727 yards and eight scores already.
Look for Andrews to have a monster day on the ground against a Louisiana-Monroe defense that has allowed 305 rushing yards to Oklahoma, 311 rushing yards to Baylor, and 253 rushing yards to Tulane. I look for Western Kentucky to score at will because of its ability to move the ball on the ground with ease, and behind an underrated passing attack. LA-Monroe also gave up 470 yards passing to Baylor and 310 passing yards to Wake Forest, so it hasn't been good in any phase of the defense.
What may concern most is a Louisiana-Monroe offense that hasn't put up great numbers this year. However, it has played some very good defenses with the likes of Oklahoma and Baylor. It's not like Western Kentucky is shutting down everyone. It gave up 52 points to Tennessee, 31 to South Alabama and 26 to Kentucky. ULM, which returned eight starters on offense this season from a unit that put up 33.8 points and 433 total yards per game last year, will get untracked against Western Kentucky.
What I really like about the OVER is the high-scoring nature of this series. The last three meetings have seen 85, 59 and 65 combined points. That's an average of 69.7 points per game, which is 21.7 more than tonight's posted total of 48. Kolton Browning threw for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 69 yards and two scores in last year's 43-42 victory at Western Kentucky. Andrews rushed for 104 yards and a score, while quarterback Kawaun Jakes threw for 308 yards and four touchdowns in the loss for the Hilltoppers.
Bobby Petrino is 27-12 to the OVER in road games in all games he has coached. Petrino is 13-2 to the OVER off a two-game home stand in all games he has coached. Todd Berry is 6-0 to the OVER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game as the coach of Louisiana-Monroe. The OVER is 23-7-1 in Warhawks last 31 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-28-13||Wisconsin +7 v. Ohio State||24-31||Push||0||67 h 31 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Ohio State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +7
The Wisconsin Badgers haven
|09-28-13||Arizona v. Washington -10||Top||13-31||Win||100||67 h 31 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -10
The Washington Huskies are clearly one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013. That should come as no surprise considering they returned 18 starters and 58 lettermen in Steve Sarkisian
|09-28-13||Florida -12 v. Kentucky||Top||24-7||Win||100||66 h 33 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -12
The Gators have no margin for error if they want to contend for a BCS Title in 2013. They already lost at Miami despite thoroughly dominating that game, outgaining the Hurricanes by 201 total yards. This team really should be 3-0 right now with the way it has been owning its competition in the yardage battle. It outgained Toledo by 210 total yards and Tennessee by 162 total yards.
The injury to quarterback Jeff Driskel is a blessing in disguise. Backup Tyler Murphy replaced Driskel and looked very good against Tennessee. Murphy completed 8 of 14 passes for 134 yards with one touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 84 yards and a score. Driskel had already thrown an interception that was returned for a touchdown before leaving the game to put the Gators in the hole 7-0. Murphy did a great job of digging them out of it as Florida would outscore Tennessee 31-10 the rest of the way.
Kentucky is a team in rebuilding mode with a 1-2 start and its only victory coming against lowly Miami Ohio. It lost to Western Kentucky 26-35 on a neutral field while giving up 487 total yards. It also lost at home to Louisville 13-27 while allowing 492 total yards. It
|09-28-13||Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama||0-25||Loss||-110||65 h 1 m||Show|
15* Ole Miss/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +15