|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-05-22||Saints v. Bucs -3.5||Top||16-17||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5
This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week. That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home. Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch. That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department. Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go. The defense still remains one of the best units in the league. The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.
The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted. They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out. Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play. The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.
New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week. Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Bucs Monday.
|12-04-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 53||24-27||Loss||-105||66 h 35 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53
This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL. We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.
Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season. Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.
The return of those two cannot be overstated. Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season. Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.
Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall. Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Dolphins +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||17-33||Loss||-110||142 h 34 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5
The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season. That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills. And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.
Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result. But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers. They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior. So they are as fresh as they can be right now.
The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week. Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half. They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs. That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.
No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL. But I just don't trust their offense to get margin. This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most. Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager. And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.
The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season. When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss. I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer. Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores. And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away. They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.
The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much. The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win. Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-04-22||Seahawks -7 v. Rams||Top||27-23||Loss||-110||64 h 3 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7
The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form. And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl. But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers. Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.
The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs. They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins. It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense. They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air. He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.
I love the spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders. They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh. And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive. Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.
The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle. This will be the first game he has missed this season. Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.
The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about. I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle. Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jets v. Vikings OVER 44.5||22-27||Win||100||62 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5
The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games. But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late. They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play. They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.
The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense. He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week. He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore. White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.
The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers. They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with. Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals. Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.
Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game. The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games. The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf. The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jaguars v. Lions OVER 50.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||69 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play. The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.
The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either. They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season. But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week. I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.
The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense. They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall. Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.
The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games. The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-22||Purdue +17 v. Michigan||Top||22-43||Loss||-110||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17
This is a terrible spot for Michigan. The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country. It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years. That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not. As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.
This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm. He is great as a big underdog. Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers. Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.
Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game. Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on. He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season. He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check. The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game. This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well. Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived. The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|12-03-22||Purdue v. Michigan OVER 51.5||Top||22-43||Win||100||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5
It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. I think both teams will be playing pretty freely. Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West. I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.
Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good. Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points. They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season. The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either. They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.
Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road. They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack. They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.
Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite. Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan. The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-03-22||Fresno State +3.5 v. Boise State||28-16||Win||100||113 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5
Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.
Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season. Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting. His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.
Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season. They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0. Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop. They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself. That misleading final is definitely playing into this line. They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.
While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak. They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9. They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992. The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Fresno State Saturday.
|12-02-22||Utah v. USC OVER 66.5||Top||47-24||Win||100||93 h 23 m||Show|
20* Utah/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on OVER 66.5
Utah and USC played in a 43-42 shootout in their first meeting this season for 85 combined points and 1,118 yards between them. That game was played outdoors in the elements in Salt Lake City, and this one will be played indoors in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It should be another shootout between these teams in the Pac-12 Championship rematch.
USC has scored at least 38 points in six consecutive games and averages 42.5 points points per game, 508 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on the season. No team has more talent on offense than the Trojans. That's how they have been able to get away with a poor defense that allows 405 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season. Caleb Williams is the Heisman front-runner with 65.8% completions and a 34-to-3 TD/INT ratio, to go along with 351 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Utah has been much more offensive-minded than normal this season. The Utes average 39.4 points per game, 468 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. That's impressive considering star QB Cam Rising even missed a game where they only scored 21 points against Washington State. Riding is completing 66.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns, while also rushing for 392 yards and six scores. He'll be able to match Williams and USC score for score.
The OVER is 6-0 in Trojans last six games overall with 65 or more combined points in all six, and 72 or more combined points in five of them. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-02-22||Akron +12 v. Buffalo||22-23||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
15* Akron/Buffalo MAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Akron +12
The Akron Zips have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 to Central Michigan as 12-point dogs, lost by 6 at Kent State as 16-point dogs while outgaining them by 37 yards, lost by 18 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 128 yards, lost by 6 to Eastern Michigan as 6.5-point dogs despite outgaing them by 41 yards and crushed Northern Illinois by 32 as 9.5-point dogs while outgaining them by 251 yards.
So, Akron has outgained four consecutive opponents by a total of 457 yards and by an average of 114.3 yards per game. This despite being underdogs in all four games! This team is much better than they get credit for. They just racked up 512 yards on Northern Illinois with a backup QB, so I'm not concerned whether or not DJ Irons plays in this game as he's questionable. Backup Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against NIU.
Buffalo has all the pressure on its shoulders. The Bulls were sitting at 5-3 needing just one win in to clinch a bowl berth. Instead, they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point loss at Ohio, a 4-point loss at Central Michigan and a 3-point home loss to Kent State. That home loss to Kent State was brutal last week. They led by 14 with 7 minutes left and lost in overtime to a backup quarterback for the Golden Flashes, who had nothing to play for at 4-7 on the season coming in.
I don't know how Buffalo gets back up off the mat after that crushing OT loss to Kent State. I know they will be feeling the pressure, and this team simply isn't that good when you look at the numbers. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season, averaging just 5.0 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.2 yards per play on defense. Even Akron has a better yards per play differential than Buffalo. The Zips will be free-rolling in this game with no pressure at all.
Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss to a conference opponent. The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Take Akron Friday.
|12-01-22||Bills -3 v. Patriots||Top||24-10||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills are the better team, period. They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play. These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.
The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|12-01-22||Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game. This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo. In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game. That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.
Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career. He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards. Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings. And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.
New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-28-22||Steelers v. Colts OVER 39||Top||24-17||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39
Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week. The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles. I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.
The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury. They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles. They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving. Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.
The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett. After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week. Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-22||Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5||40-34||Loss||-110||63 h 2 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out. They won those four games all by double-digits. They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch. They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.
This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week. But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage. I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.
Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt. They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury. They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.
Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season. Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play. Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.
Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle. The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-27-22||Broncos v. Panthers +2||10-23||Win||100||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2
The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs. They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs. They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.
This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback. He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker. I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well. But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.
The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games. Denver is doing nothing well offensively. The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game. They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry. With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.
No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos. They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL. They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.
This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point. Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons. I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.
Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|11-27-22||Bucs -3 v. Browns||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||158 h 56 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams. They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.
Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week. They are as healthy as they have been all season. Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week. Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.
The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall. They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved. Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too. They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve. The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength. They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.
But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense. They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play. The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week. The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off. He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out. Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.
The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed. The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss. I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week. It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|11-27-22||Ravens v. Jaguars +4||Top||27-28||Win||100||158 h 56 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4
I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson. First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.
Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate. Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games. The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.
Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7. This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward. The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.
Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina. It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken. It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.
Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury. TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR. Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games. Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.
Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run. The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game. They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.
Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot. Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach. The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-27-22||Falcons v. Commanders -3||Top||13-19||Win||100||158 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3
The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC. They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them. I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.
The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback. Players love this guy. He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins. The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts. But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.
Atlanta can't match Washington defensively. The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed. Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.
There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground. That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury. The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing. Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry. They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21. They may get Chase Young back, too.
Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games. The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.
Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington. The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games. It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them. Take the Commanders Sunday.
|11-26-22||BYU -6.5 v. Stanford||35-26||Win||100||116 h 23 m||Show|
15* BYU/Stanford FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -6.5
Stanford is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. This is a dead Cardinal team sitting at 3-8 this season and just wanting this disaster of a season to be over with. They have lost four consecutive games by an average of 26.3 points per game. Expect another blowout loss for the Cardinal in the season finale.
BYU is the fresher team coming off a 52-26 win over Dixie State last week that followed up a bye the previous week. They are rested and ready to go, while Stanford will be playing for a 10th consecutive week. Injuries and attrition have hurt the Cardinal, and they are going to have a hard time getting back up off the mat after a tough 27-20 loss at Cal last week.
BYU has an elite offense that averages 31.65 points per game, 440 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. The Cougars can name their score on this Cardinal defense that allows 31.9 points per game, 434 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. BYU is good against the pass but poor against the run, but that's not a problem here because Stanford only averages 113 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.
Plays against home teams (Stanford) - after being beaten by the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games. The Cardinal are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Cardinal are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take BYU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Air Force v. San Diego State +2||13-3||Loss||-108||114 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Diego State +2
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. San Diego State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted two weeks ago, too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season two weeks ago in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win. And last week they handled their business in a 34-10 win at New Mexico while outgaining the Lobos by 250 yards.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 209 yards and three scores at 4.1 per attempt.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in four of their last six games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 34th in total defense at 340.0 yards per game and 31st in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 115.9 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing Air Force.
The Falcons rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, averaging 342 rushing yards per game and only 73 passing yards per game. That's why San Diego State owns Air Force because they are good against the run every year. Indeed, San Diego State is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They cannot be home underdogs to the Falcons given this head-to-head history and how well they are playing down the stretch. Wrong team favored here. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|11-26-22||LSU -9.5 v. Texas A&M||23-38||Loss||-110||113 h 33 m||Show|
15* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN ANNIHILATOR on LSU -9.5
LSU is making a run at the four-team playoff and needs more style points this week plus a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to get in. The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over Florida by 10, Ole Miss by 25 and UAB by 31. They also upset Alabama at home and went on the road and beat Arkansas by 3 during this stretch.
Now the Tigers should keep pouring it on a Texas A&M team that is just ready for this season to be over. The Aggies are 4-7 this season, including 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The lone win was a lackluster 20-3 home win as 32-point favorites last week over a UMass team that is one of the worst in all of college football. They lost their previous home game to Florida by 17.
I just don't see the Aggies being interested at all in this game, so that's why I'm willing to lay the points on the road with LSU. It might not matter even if Texas A&M shows up because they are that bad and that injured right now. We will get an 'A' effort from LSU, and that should be enough to cover this number on the road. Roll with LSU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State -4.5 v. Georgia Southern||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -4.5
Georgia Southern opened 5-3 this season. They now sit at 5-6 and feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a bowl berth. I don't think they get it done this week against an Appalachian State team that is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.
Injuries have really hurt the Panthers down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. This is a great Appalachian State offense that puts up 33.7 points and 440 yards per game. They should score enough to cover against this soft Georgia Southern defense that allows 30.9 points and 487 yards per game, including 229 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. App State wants to run the ball, averaging 189 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Plays against home underdog (Georgia Southern) - a terrible defensive team allowing 440 or more yards per game against a good defensive team (330-390 YPG) after seven-plus games, after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Appalachian State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards pre game. The Mountaineers won 27-3 last year and 34-26 on the road two seasons ago in their last two meetings with the Panthers. Take Appalachian State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 61.5||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on App State/GA Southern UNDER 61.5
Injuries have really hurt the the Georgia Southern Panthers on offense down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. And the books are failing to adjust these Georgia Southern totals down because they put up gaudy offensive number in the first half of the season. This isn't close to the same offense, and we are getting value here on the UNDER 61.5 Saturday.
Weather could be an issue here too with double-digit winds and a 33% chance of rain. I don't think we need weather to cash this UNDER, though. Appalachian State is going to want to run the football and keep the clock moving to keep this Georgia Southern offense off the field. They shoud have a run-heavy plan after rushing 42 times for 207 yards against Old Dominion last week after rushing 40 times against Marshall the previous week. Georgia Southern cannot stop the run, so they will keep going to their ground game.
Nine of Appalachian State's 11 games this season have seen 60 or fewer combined points. Each of the last 10 meetings between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have seen 60 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 61.5-point total. The UNDER is 10-1 in App State's last 11 games following a conference win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last nine home games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-26-22||Southern Miss -3 v. UL-Monroe||20-10||Win||100||110 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -3
Will Hall has a desperate Southern Miss team that wants to get to a bowl game sitting at 5-6 heading into their regular season finale. Hall has done a tremendous job turning around this program, and the Golden Eagles are much better than their 5-6 record would indicate.
The six losses have come to Liberty, Miami, Troy, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama. They lost by 2 to Liberty, by 3 to Coastal and by 7 to South Alabama. They even have a win over Tulane, which may end up winning the AAC.They have handled the teams they are supposed to handle, and they are supposed to handle LA-Monroe this week.
I question LA-Monroe's motivation this week after losing 34-16 to Troy last week to fall to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention. They had won their previous two games by a combined 4 points to stay alive, but now their dreams are crushed. I don't expect them to show up at all this week, at least not with the same intensity of Southern Miss.
LA-Monroe just isn't very good. The Warhawks are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards pre game this season and 0.8 yards per play. They have a terrible defense that allows 35.7 yards per game, and QB Trey Lowe and this Southern Miss offense are in line for one of their best games of the season. They will be able to run on a Monroe defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. And Southern Miss has one of the best defenses in the conference, allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a cover where they straight up as an underdog. Monroe is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after winning two of its last three games. Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Golden Eagles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-26-22||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-62||Loss||-110||109 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +10.5
For starters, Iowa State might be the best 4-7 team in the history of college football. TCU might be the worst 11-0 team in the history of college football. Couple those two facts in my opinion and we are getting tremendous line value with the Cyclones as double-digit underdogs to the fraudulent Horned Frogs.
Iowa State averages 374.3 yards per game on offense and allows 277.6 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game. TCU averages 482.5 yards per game on offense and allows 388.5 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 100 yards per game as well. Iowa State actually has the better yardage differential, though!
The difference in the records is that Iowa State has had terrible luck in close games, while TCU has had tremendous luck. Six of Iowa State's seven losses have come by 7 points or less this season. Eight of TCU's 11 wins this season have come by 10 points or fewer. The exceptions were Colorado, Tarleton State and an Oklahoma team that lost their starting QB.
Iowa State will treat this as their National Championship game with a chance to knock off TCU from the unbeaten ranks since the Cyclones aren't going to a bowl. These players love Matt Campbell and will show up for him this week. TCU has all the pressure on its shoulders needing to win this game if they want to make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly back the care-free team than the tight Horned Frogs in this one.
Iowa State is one of the originators of the 3-3-5 defense that stops spread attacks. They give up just 172 passing yards per game this season. They will keep TCU's aerial assault in check by dropping eight back into coverage and getting pressure with just three. They've done it for years under Campbell, and this will be the best defense that TCU has faced yet this season.
The Cyclones are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with TCU. Campbell is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State. He rarely loses by double-digits, and he won't be losing by double-digits Saturday. Don't be surprised to see the Cyclones pull the upset so make sure you sprinkle a little on the money line, too. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Auburn +22 v. Alabama||Top||27-49||Push||0||109 h 1 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +22
Alabama was eliminated from playoff contention with a 31-32 loss at LSU three games ago. They were flat in 6-point win over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites the next week, and last week they were flat again in a 34-0 win over Austin Peay as 44-point favorites. They won't be that motivated to beat Auburn either knowing they won't be going to the four-team playoff.
Bryce Young is still nursing a shoulder injury and this Alabama offense has been held in check because of it. They have scored 34 or fewer points in four consecutive games. I expect Auburn to hold them to 34 or fewer too, which is going to make it tough for Alabama to cover this massive 22-point spread.
I know I'm going to get an 'A' effort from Auburn, which wants to make a bowl game at 5-6 this season. These players absolutely love former player Cadillac Williams, their interim head coach. They have showed up every week the past five weeks in going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 14 at Ole Miss, by 14 to Arkansas, by 6 (OT) at Mississippi State, beat Texas A&M by 3 at home and crushed Western Kentucky by 24 last week.
Auburn has rushed for an average of 252.4 yards per game in its last five games. These players have really bought in to Williams wanting to run the football, which can be expected from a former running back. Running the ball also shortens games and makes it easier for them to be competitive, and that will work in their favor in trying to cover this massive 22-point spread this week.
Alabama isn't as good against the run as it has been in the past. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 182 rushing yards in four of their last seven games. So I have no doubt Auburn will have enough success on the ground to be able to move the ball and score points, while also keeping Young and this Alabama offense off the field for long stretches.
Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November. This is too big of a spread for an Alabama team that is lacking motivation as they are used to being in contention for the four-team playoff. They don't have much to play for but pride, and they aren't used to playing for just pride. It has shown the past two weeks and will show again this week. Auburn is the more prideful team and worth a bet because of it. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|11-26-22||Hawaii +15.5 v. San Jose State||Top||14-27||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Hawaii +15.5
First-year head coach Timmy Chang has quietly done a great job of improving the Rainbow Warriors as the season has gone on. That's evident by the fact that Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. In those seven games, they have just one loss by more than 7 points, which was to Fresno State which may be the best team in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors even upset UNLV 31-25 at home as 11-point dogs last week.
San Jose State is not one of the best teams in the Mountain West. The Spartans are really lacking motivation here down the stretch and it's showing. They clinched a bowl berth after a 6-2 start and have been playing terrible for weeks. They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins coming over Nevada by 7 as 24.5-point home favorites and Colorado State by 12 as 24-point home favorites. If those two teams can stay within 12 points of San Jose State on the road, Hawaii certainly can too.
This San Jose State defense has total fallen apart. They allowed 28 points and 303 yards to Nevada, 16 points and 448 yards to Colorado State, 43 points and 445 yards to San Diego State and 35 points and 430 yards to Utah State in their last four games. Hawaii has averaged 32.5 points per game its past two games and will score enough points to stay within this number against an unmotivated SJSU squad.
Plays against home teams (San Jose State) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Each of the last five meetings in this head-to-head series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.
San Jose State is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following two consecutive road losses. The Spartans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. Bet Hawaii Saturday.
|11-26-22||UTEP +18 v. UTSA||Top||31-34||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +18
The UTSA Roadrunners punched their ticket into the Conference USA Championship Game for second consecutive season with a 41-7 beat down of Rice last week. That was their second consecutive blowout win against overmatched competition. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Roadrunners this week.
They won't be motivated at all to bury UTEP this week. They will be looking ahead to the Conference USA Championship and trying to keep everyone healthy. Expect their game plan to be very vanilla. They'd be more than happy to just get out of here with a win. They aren't going to be trying to run up the score.
We saw what happened last year with UTSA already clinching a spot in the title game in the final week. They went on the road and lost outright 23-45 at North Texas as 10-point favorites. It's also worth noting the Roadrunners have faced three straight backup quarterbacks and may be facing a 4th in a row this week, so their numbers are misleading.
UTEP sits at 5-6 and in need of a win to make a bowl game. That makes it very easy to figure out which one of these teams will be more motivated. I also like the fact that UTEP is the fresher team coming off a 40-6 victory over Florida International last week after having a bye the previous week. UTSA will be playing for a 4th consecutive week.
UTEP head coach Dimel has kept quiet about who his starting quarterback will be this week. Gavin Hardison sat last week with an injury, and backup Calvin Brownholtz balled out. He led this UTEP offense to 525 yards while completing 12 of 18 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 31 yards and score. He is a big, physical QB and I expect the Miners to win the battle at the line is scrimmage. It's a competitive advantage for them to not name a starter, and I think either can get the job done here and keep this game close.
There's not as much difference between these teams as this line would indicate even when you don't factor in motivation. UTEP is outgaining teams by 36 yards per game while UTSA is outgaining its opponents by 82 yards per game on the season. That's only a 46-yard edge in UTSA's favor.
UTSA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more. Dimel is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game as the coach of UTEP. UTSA allows 400 yards per game including 260 passing, so the back door is going to be open if need be, but I don't think we are are going to need it. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet UTEP Saturday.
|11-26-22||Kent State v. Buffalo -4||30-27||Loss||-110||106 h 23 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo -4
I love the spot for Buffalo this week. They are trying to become bowl eligible with a win over Kent State. They had their game against Akron cancelled last week due to weather and don't want to have to make that game up to become bowl eligible. They want to handle their business here Saturday.
The Bulls come in rested and ready to go having last played on November 9th. It's safe to say we are going to get an 'A' effort from the Bulls here. They have been great at home this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with wins by 4 over Miami Ohio and by 7 over Toledo, which are two of the best teams in the MAC with both bowl eligible.
Kent State just lost a 24-31 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan last week to fall to 4-7 this season, eliminating them from bowl contention. They led 17-7 at halftime, but star QB Collin Schlee was injured right before halftime and it was all downhill from there without him. Backup Kargman went 7-of-19 for 91 yards in his absence, and he isn't the dual-threat that Schlee is.
Schlee is very much questionable for this game and I don't expect him to play. He has thrown for 2,095 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 448 yards and four scorers. Backup Kargman is only completing 46.2% of his passes and has -19 rushing yards. Kent State won't even be competitive without Schlee, but they might not be competitive either way considering their bowl hopes were crushed last week and they have nothing to play for.
Kent State is 1-7 ATS in games played on turf this season. The Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Bulls are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I'll gladly back the rested home team with a lot more to play for this week in the Bulls. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|11-25-22||Nebraska +11 v. Iowa||Top||24-17||Win||100||85 h 26 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +11
A quick look at the head-to-head history between Nebraska and Iowa shows that we have to take the Cornhuskers catching double-digits. Iowa has won four straight meetings with Nebraska all by 7 points or fewer. The stats have been pretty even in every meeting, and the Hawkeyes have just had the breaks go their way late in games.
Nebraska won't be going to a bowl game, so this is their 'National Championship' Game. They would love nothing more than to beat Iowa and knock them out of the Big Ten championship game. It's a miracle the Hawkeyes even have a shot considering their numbers this season. Kirk Ferentz has worked miracles to get this team to 7-4.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes rank 130th in the country in total offense at 253.5 yards per game. They are getting outgained by 20 yards per game on the season. And how the Hawkeye s just lost their biggest weapon in TE Sam LaPorta to an injury against Minnesota last week and he will not play this week. LaPorta has 53 receptions for 600 yards this season and is the one players you have to worry about on their offense. His loss cannot be overstated here.
Nebraska continues to battle week in and week out under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. The Huskers gave Wisconsin all they wanted last week in a 15-14 home loss. They also only lost by 7 to Minnesota and by 6 to Purdue, which are three of the best teams in the Big Ten West this season. If they can stay within one score of those three teams, they can certainly stay within 11 points of Iowa without LaPorta.
Plays against any team (Iowa) - a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG), after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Kirk Ferentz is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa, and 22-38 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I don't think Iowa's offense can score enough to cover this big of a number. They are going to need scores from their defense and/or special teams to get there, and it's just tough to bank on that. Ferentz is very conservative and will make some decisions in this one that help the Huskers stay in this game as well. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-25-22||Toledo v. Western Michigan +8||14-20||Win||100||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +8
Western Michigan continues to battle. They have played four straight games decided by 6 points or fewer. They won 16-10 at Miami Ohio four games ago, lost 13-9 at Bowling Green three games ago and lost 24-21 to Northern Illinois two games ago. They easily could have packed it in after that NIU loss as it dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention.
Instead, the Broncos pulled the 12-10 upset at Central Michigan as 9.5-point dogs and outgained them by 104 yards. And now they'll be looking forward to trying to upset Toledo at home on Senior Day Friday. I expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos knowing this is their final game of the season.
The 'A' effort will not be there for Toledo. They clinched the MAC West title two weeks ago with a 28-21 win over Ball State. They laid an egg last week with a 35-42 loss to Bowling Green. And now they still have nothing to play for this week against Western Michigan as they are already in the MAC title game.
The Rockets rested stud QB DaQuan Finn in that loss to Bowling Green as he has been battling an injury here late in the season. They would be wise to rest him again. He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,943 yards with a 21-to-10 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and eight scores. There's a big downgrade from Finn to Gleason at QB for the Rockets, and I just don't trust this team with questionable motivation.
The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Western Michigan Friday.
|11-25-22||Utah State +17 v. Boise State||23-42||Loss||-110||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State +17
The Utah State Aggies continue to battle. They are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall to get to a bowl game. That includes an upset win over Air Force as 11.5-point dogs that started this run. Now they will be very much looking forward to the opportunity to try and take down Mountain West title favorite, Boise State.
I question Boise State's motivation this week. They just pulled off a narrow 20-17 victory at Wyoming last week that had a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game on the line. With their tickets already punched into the title game, I don't expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos in this one. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 17-point spread against the Aggies.
We've seen Boise State be in hard-fought affairs in their three games against bowl teams recently. They only beat Air Force by 5 and Wyoming by 3 while also losing to BYU by 3. Utah State is at least on Wyoming's level. They can stay within 17 points of the Broncos whether or not they were motivated this week.
Utah State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having won four or five of its last six games coming in. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah State is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 Friday games. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It's time to 'sell high' on Boise State this week. Roll with Utah State Friday.
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +3.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||91 h 9 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +3.5
The Ole Miss Rebels suffered their 'dream crusher' loss two weeks ago with a 24-30 home loss to Alabama in which they came up short in the red zone in the closing seconds. They swiftly got blasted 27-42 at Arkansas last week in a game that was a 42-6 game entering the 4th quarter, so even that loss was misleading.
Now there are rumors about Lane Kiffin possibly going to Auburn. He may have one foot out the door here. The Rebels had their chances of winning the SEC West and making the four-team playoff crushed with that loss to Alabama. They didn't get back up off the mat last week, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat this week, either.
You know Mississippi State wants to win this game. Mike Leach hasn't beaten Ole Miss yet. The Bulldogs have a had a couple tough-luck losses under Leach. They lost by 7 while racking up 479 total yards including 440 passing two years ago. Last year they lost by 10 despite outgaining the Rebels 420 to 388 and throwing for 336 yards. It's clear Kiffin hasn't bene able to figure out how to stop this Mississippi State passing attack.
The key to beating Ole Miss is stopping their rushing attack. Mississippi State has the horses up front to do that. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs had an easy 56-7 win over East Tennessee State on Saturday, so they should be the fresher team coming into this Egg Bowl on a short week. They have the rest and motivation advantage, and I think these are pretty even teams overall, so getting +3.5 is a great value.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Leach is 33-14 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as a head coach. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -8||20-28||Push||0||90 h 32 m||Show|
15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8
The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit. Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.
Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss. They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.
Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards. Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards. Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions. The secondary is a major concern moving forward. Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week. As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable. Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter. They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards. The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.
Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game. Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season. He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury. This Dallas defense has been elite all season. They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play. That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3. One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback. So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.
The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games. Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall. Take the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-24-22||Bills v. Lions OVER 52.5||Top||28-25||Win||100||85 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5
I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday. I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.
The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play. Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.
It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play. They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games. They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.
The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football. After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week. The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week. This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.
The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall. The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season. The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-22||Ball State v. Miami-OH -2.5||Top||17-18||Loss||-118||20 h 46 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -2.5
Miami and Ball State both sit at 5-6 this season with a chance to go to a bowl game with a win Tuesday night. I'll gladly side with the Miami Redhawks, who are the better team and are at home here, so this line should be above Miami -3.
The Miami Redhawks kept their bowl hopes alive with a 29-23 win at Northern Illinois last week and have now won two of their last three games. Ball State has lost two consecutive games and couldn't even beat Ohio last week after the Bobcats lost their starting QB in the first half. They lost 32-18 and still gave up 429 yards even after Ohio lost the best QB in the back in Rourke. The Cardinals are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to make a bowl game and aren't handling well, while the Redhawks are handling it well with a veteran head coach in Chuck Martin who has been here before.
This is a great matchup for Miami Ohio. Both teams want to run the football. Ball State averages 152 rushing yards per game but only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Miami Ohio averages 146 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt. I think these offenses are pretty evenly matched as Ball State averages 5.2 yards per play while Miami averages 5.1 per play.
The difference is defense. Miami Ohio has by far the best unit on the field in its defense. The Redhawks only allow 23.0 points per game while the Cardinals allow 27.7 points per game. Miami allows 369 yards per game while Ball State allows 406 yards per game. But the biggest key is these teams' ability to stop the run. Miami only allows 124 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry, while Ball State allows 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Miami is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
Miami owns Ball State, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Miami. Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.
|11-21-22||49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals||38-10||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7.5
The San Francisco 49ers are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL the healthier they get. After beating the Rams 31-14 on the road three weeks ago, they came back from their bye with a 22-16 home win over the Chargers. It was more dominant than that scored showed as the 49ers outgained the Chargers by 149 yards.
Speaking of dominant, the 49ers have dominant numbers this season. They rank 9th in total offense at 360.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game and 3rd at 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best numbers in the entire NFL.
The Cardinals are 19th in total offense at 333.7 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play. Arizona is 23rd in total defense at 357.6 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 24 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Cardinals. They still don't know whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy will be their quarterback as both are banged up. Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing several starters and cannot protect anyone. They will also be without two of their best weapons in TE Zach Ertz and WR Marquise Brown, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable as well. They just cannot be trusted with all of these injuries right now, and their lack of depth will be tested playing in the altitude in Mexico City.
The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a non-conference game. San Francisco is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 Monday Night Football games. Arizona is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a good offensive team that averages 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC West opponents. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC West foes. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday Night Football games. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-20-22||Chiefs v. Chargers +6||30-27||Win||100||77 h 58 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6
Let's just start out by looking at this from a line value perspective. The Chargers were 4-point underdogs in their 24-27 loss at Kansas City earlier this season. Now they are 6-point home underdogs in the rematch. There's clearly value on the Chargers given the change in venue from the first meeting, though they admittedly don't have much home-field advantage.
The Chargers are 'all in' this week. This game will determine whether or not they have a chance to win the division. They need this game more than the Chiefs do. That's evident by the fact that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice this week and are expected to go. Allen has just six receptions on the season and has basically been out all year. Williams has missed the past two games. It's amazing the Chargers sit at 5-4 without these guys. But this is as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's going to make a major difference this week.
The Chiefs have small cornerbacks outside, so Allen and Williams can use their size to make plays for Justin Herbert. He doesn't have to dink and dunk it down the field anymore like he has been doing without these guys. Herbert has never lost as an underdog of 5-plus points in his career with a perfect ATS record in this spot.
The Chiefs are the ones with the injury problems this week. Patrick Mahomes is going to be without his two favorite receivers in JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman. JuJu has 46 receptions for 615 yards and two touchdowns and was really forming a nice chemistry with Mahomes before being knocked out of the game against the Jaguars last week. Hardman has 25 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns and is their most explosive receiver.
One hidden gem here is that Derwin James owns Travis Kelce. In his career when matched up against James, Kelce averages just 1.2 yards per target. James shuts him down, and he will blanket Kelce again in this game knowing that Mahomes is limited on weapons. I think this Kansas City offense will look lost this week.
The Chiefs haven't won any of their last five meetings with the Chargers by more than 6 points. And that 6-point victory came in overtime. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Chiefs are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games. They were fortunate to cover by 0.5 against the Jaguars last week as Jacksonville missed two field goals. They won't be so fortunate this week as I think Los Angeles wins this game outright. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||102 h 47 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1
I love this spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week. They were coming off their bye last week and blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Green Bay Packers. They will be pissed off from that defeat, and I look for them to take it out on the Minnesota Vikings this week. They were previously 195-0 when having at least a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in franchise history.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are feeling fat and happy from their OT win in Buffalo. It took a miracle fumble by Josh Allen on the goal line for them to win that game. They've had every break possible go their way this season, and at some point their luck is going to run out. I believe that to be this week against the Cowboys, who are clearly the better team and favored for good reason here.
Amazingly, Minnesota is 8-1 this season despite getting outgained by 25 yards per game and outgained by 0.5 yards per play. That's the definition of a miracle. They have the numbers more of a team that is below .500 than one that is 8-1. But they're 7-0 in one score games, which has been the difference. I don't believe this will be a one score game as I have Dallas blowing them out of the building.
Worst case these teams are even on offense, but Dallas has a way better defense. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 11th in total defense at 324.8 yards per game and 6th in allowing just 5.0 yards per play. Minnesota ranks 29th in total defense allowing 381.2 yards per game and 28th in allowing 5.9 yards per play. At some point, their leaky defense is going to catch up with them, and I think it'll be this week.
Dallas is likely to get Anthony Barr back at linebacker, which will allow Micah Parsons to get back on the defensive line and rush the passer more. They are much better when he's rushing the passer than when he's in coverage, though he can do it all. Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary and is terrible defending the pass.
They run a Cover 2 shell to try and mask it, but Dak Prescott has the 2nd-best passer rating in the NFL against the Cover 2 shell over the last two seasons. The Vikings will be without DT Tomlinson, while the Cowboys get RB Elliott back this week, so they should be able to impose their will by running the football with plenty of success. That will open up things for Dak against that Cover 2 shell look.
The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-20-22||Eagles v. Colts +7||17-16||Win||100||70 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +7
The Indianapolis Colts saved their season last week with a 25-20 upset win in Las Vegas. It was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. They racked up 415 total yards on offense and outgained the Raiders by 106 yards. Three key moves made the difference.
The Jeff Saturday hire gave the team a boost and they seemed to respond well to him despite all the negative media attention. Keep in mind there are some proven assistants on this staff that are helping Saturday out in former head coaches Gus Bradley and John Fox. Matt Ryan returned to the starting lineup and he's a big upgrade over Sam Ehlinger. But the biggest key was getting star RB Johnathan Taylor back from injury. He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown and looked like his former self.
Now the Colts at least have a mediocre offense, which is all they need to help out what is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Indeed, the Colts rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 307.0 yards per game and 5th with just 4.9 yards per play allowed. I would argue they have a better defense than Philadelphia when you factor in the schedule.
The Colts have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the NFL while the Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. That's why Philadelphia is 8-1 and why the Eagles' numbers are inflated. They were exposed last week in a 32-21 home loss to Washington as an 11-point favorite on Monday Night Football. I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect. And now they are going on the road on a short week and laying 7 points to the Colts when they shouldn't be.
The Eagles really miss DT Jordan Davis who is their best defensive linemen. Now they lost TE Dallas Goedert and could be without WR AJ Brown, who injured his ankle against the Commanders early and wasn't the same when he returned. Brown was held to one catch for 7 yards. Davante Smith also has a banged up knee and is questionable alongside Brown. Those are their top three receivers by a wide margin as they all have over 40 receptions, over 480 yards apiece and have combined for 12 touchdown receptions.
Philadelphia's passing game is going to be compromised this week at the very least. They will look to get back to running the football, but that makes this a great matchup for the Colts. They rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Only the 49ers have been better.
Indianapolis was only a 4.5-point home underdog to Kansas City earlier this season and won outright. Now they are 7-point underdogs to the Eagles. They can't be bigger dogs against the Eagles than they were against the Chiefs. This line should be much closer to Eagles -3. The Colts are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as home dogs of 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit home loss. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-20-22||Browns v. Bills OVER 48||Top||23-31||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Browns OVER 48
I was betting on the Cleveland Browns and the UNDER when this game was supposed to be played in a couple feet of snow. That would have benefited Cleveland and their running game. But now that this game is being played in a dome in Detroit, it benefits the Bills more, but it really benefits the OVER more than anything.
Buffalo will now be able to be in its comfort zone, which is having Josh Allen drop back and make plays with his arm and his feet. This is arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 1st in total offense and 424.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Playing in a dome they are going to be pretty much unstoppable.
We saw what happened to this Cleveland defense last week playing in perfect conditions in Miami against another team that likes to throw it around the yard and has great team speed. They gave up 39 points and 491 total yards to the Dolphins. The Browns rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 25th allowing 5.8 yards per play. They have injuries in their secondary and just lost starting CB Greg Newsome II to a concussion in practice in an accidental collision on Friday to make things worse. They have no chance of stopping Buffalo.
The Browns will be able to get their running game going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game their last three games. And they're going to be without their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds, who left the previous game with a knee injury. They were already without Micah Hyde and Tredavious White and could be without Jordan Poyer as well. All these injuries have had the Bills with a leaky defense in recent weeks.
But I do expect the Bills to have the lead for the majority of this game and Jacoby Brissett to try and have to play from behind, which will speed up their offense. The Browns have a better offense than they get credit for. They are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 375.9 yards per game and 11th at 5.6 yards per play.
Let's just look at this from a value perspective. Books opened this total at 47.5 when it was supposed to be played in Buffalo knowing what the forecast was. It got bet all the way down to 41 as bettors caught wind of the forecast. Now they reopened it at 48, which is only 0.5 higher than the original opener in Buffalo. That makes no sense since this is being played in a dome. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in these perfect conditions for a shootout.
Buffalo is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bills are 6-0 OVER in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Buffalo is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-22||Colorado State +22 v. Air Force||12-24||Win||100||69 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +22
Jay Norvell quietly has this Colorado State team on the improve. They have gone 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are catching too many points here against Air Force. Asking the Falcons to win this game by more than three touchdowns to beat us is asking too much.
Colorado State has only lost one of its last six games by more than 12 points, and that was a road loss at Boise State against a Broncos team that is clearly the class of the conference. They beat Hawaii and Nevada, only lost by 4 to Utah State, outgained San Jose State 468 to 355 in a 12-point road loss as 23.5-point dogs, and outgained Wyoming 372 to 256 in a 1-point loss as 8.5-point dogs. So they have outgained Wyoming and San Jose State by a cobmined 249 yards the last two weeks, which is a massive improvement for this team.
Air Force plays a triple-option style that makes it hard for them to cover big spreads. They run the clock by keeping it on the ground. After covering against New Mexico as 21-point favorites last week, the books have set the number even higher this week, which is a mistake. New Mexico is the worst team in the Mountain West. Colorado State would crush New Mexico right now.
Colorado State has been respectable against the run this season allowing 155 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check enough to cover this number. Air Force is going to have a hard time scoring enough points to cover this number. They only average 29.5 points per game this season.
Air Force hasn't beaten Colorado State by more than 21 points in any of their last nine meetings, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Rams pertaining to this 22-point spread. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Jay Norvell is 15-4 ATS off a conference loss as a head coach. Roll with Colorado State Saturday.
|11-19-22||Western Kentucky v. Auburn OVER 52||Top||17-41||Win||100||64 h 54 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/Auburn OVER 52
This is my favorite total this week in college football. It's a non-conference game with Western Kentucky visiting Auburn. These teams never play each other so there is no familiarity. That favors the offenses.
Western Kentucky has played 11 games this season. 10 of their 11 games have seen 52 or more combined points, which is what this total is. The only game that didn't reach 52 was against a good UAB defense who was playing with a backup QB after losing their starter early.
Auburn is coming off a 13-10 home win over Texas A&M, which has one of the worst offenses in the country. I think that low-scoring game is providing us with value on the OVER this week. Auburn games had seen 52 or more combined points in four consecutive games prior to the Texas A&M game.
Also providing value is the fact that Western Kentucky has gone under the total in six consecutive games. They have had totals of 61 or higher in 10 of their 11 games this season. Now this is their lowest total of the season by far. The weather looks good in Auburn with temps in the 50's and only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday.
Western Kentucky should be able to throw all over this Auburn defense, while Auburn should be able to manhandle this WKU defense and get whatever they want on the ground. The Hilltoppers average 336 passing yards per game, and the Tigers have averaged 255 rushing yards per game in their last four games. Western Kentucky has allowed at least 161 rushing yards per five of their last six games.
The OVER is 8-2 in Western Kentucky's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 7-3 in Auburn's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 10-1 in WKU's last 11 road games after outgaining their last opponent by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 20-5 in WKU's last 25 games after scoring 37 or more points in two consecutive games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||Texas v. Kansas OVER 63.5||55-14||Win||100||63 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/Kansas OVER 63.5
This total has been set lower than it should be due to Texas playing a 17-10 defensive battle in windy conditions against TCU last week. Texas had scored 34 or more points in seven of its previous nine games with the exceptions being against very good Alabama and Iowa State defenses. They will hang a big number on Kansas this week.
Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 6-4 in their 10 games this season with combined scores of 53-plus points in nine of their 10 games this season with the lone exception being Iowa State and their top-ranked defense. They have combined with their opponents for 62 or more points in seven of their 10 games this season.
Texas has a poor pass defense that Kansas can exploit this week. The Longhorns have allowed at least 329 passing yards in three of their last four games. Kansas has a poor defense overall. They allow 30.4 points per game and 443.7 yards per game and aren't good at stopping the run or the pass, allowing 168 rush yards per game and 276 pass yards per game.
If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication, this will be another shootout. Kansas won 57-56 last season for 113 combined points with a total of 61.5. Two meetings back Texas won 50-48 for 98 combined points and a 64-point total. This total has been set in a similar range again this year at 63.5, and oddsmakers are once again making a mistake, largely due to Texas playing in a low-scoring game last week.
The OVER is 22-10-1 in Jayhawks last 33 games overall. The OVER is 20-7-1 in Jayhawks last 28 games following a loss. Both teams are bowl eligible and both teams can't win the Big 12. So I expect both defenses to relax in this one and for the offenses to take center stage, which are the strengths of both these teams. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||South Alabama v. Southern Miss +8||27-20||Win||100||63 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8
Southern Miss went 3-9 last season and was as decimated by injuries as any team in the country. The Golden Eagles have had better health this season and sit at 5-5 with an excellent chance to make a bowl game. They will be highly motivated to punch their ticket to a bowl game this week in their final home game on Senior Day.
I liked what I saw from Southern Miss QB Trey Lowe last week against Coastal Carolina in a 23-26 road loss as 5-point dogs. Lowe threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in a loss in what was his best game of the season. He and Frank Gore Jr. (788 rushing yards, 5 TD) can keep them in this game against South Alabama.
After all, South Alabama has had a hard time getting margin this season, so asking them to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much. This is a Southern Miss team that only has three losses by more than 3 points this season. I think South Alabama is getting too much respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall against three bad teams in Arkansas State, Texas State and Georgia Southern.
South Alabama is 8-2 this season, but it has just one win against a team that is .500 or better this season, and that was a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5). The Jaguars have benefitted from playing the 129th-ranked schedule in the country. To compare, Southern Miss has played the 86th-ranked schedule, having to face Tulane, Miami and Liberty in the non-conference. They upset Tulane and only lost by 2 to Liberty.
I love a good defensive home underdog, and that's what we're getting with the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss only allows 24.5 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game while Lowe and Gore make enough plays on offense to keep this one close for four quarters.
South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 November road games. The Jaguars are 2-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win by 17 points or more. South Alabama is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games following a win. The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-19-22||UL-Monroe +15.5 v. Troy||Top||16-34||Loss||-110||63 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +15.5
Louisiana-Monroe kept their bowl hopes alive with a 31-28 upset win at Georgia State last week. They had a 4th quarter comeback and now have a ton of momentum heading into this week against Troy. They would love nothing more than to upset Troy and hand them their first conference loss this season to stay alive for a bowl before hosting Southern Miss next week.
Louisiana-Monroe has been hanging around in every conference game. They are 3-3 in conference play with the three losses by 7, 7 and 17 points. The two 7-point losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys. They will hang with Troy, too.
After all, Troy hasn't been getting margin against anyone. The Trojans are 8-2 this season but they have just two wins by more than 9 points. Those were against Southern Miss by 17 and Alabama A&M by 21. They only beat Army by 1, Texas State by 3, Louisiana by 6, South Alabama by 4, WKU by 7 and Marshall by 9. It's asking a lot of them to get margin here against a motivated Louisiana-Monroe team.
The Trojans have been fortunate the last two weeks to escape with victories. They needed a 17-0 comeback in the 2nd half to beat Louisiana 23-17. They barely beat Army 10-9 last week. They can't be trusted as this big of a favorite with such a poor offense. The Trojans are scoring just 20.2 points per game in conference plays. It's going to be tough to cover this 15.5-point spread by scoring only 20 points.
Louisiana-Monroe has a passing attack that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They complete 68% of their passes this season and average 8.0 yards per attempt. They also have decent balance rushing for 127 yards per game, so it's not like they are predictable. Troy is extremely predictable on offense, rushing for juts 99 yards per game and 3.1 per carry compared to 274 passing yards per game.
Last year Louisiana-Monroe upset Troy 29-16 as 23.5-point home underdogs. And that was a way worse ULM team than this one in Year 2 under Terry Bowden. This team is on the improve. No question Troy is improved too, but they have simply been fortunate in close games. And Troy has all the pressure on them trying to win a conference title. Bowden is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as a head coach. Bowden is 10-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach.
ULM is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings with only one loss by more than 8 points. The Warhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on turf. Troy is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home games following three or more consecutive UNDERS. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after playing a home game. Troy is getting way too much credit for its 8-2 record and home-field advantage in this one. This game will go down to the wire just like most Troy games have this season. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-19-22||Washington State v. Arizona +4.5||31-20||Loss||-115||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +4.5
I love the spot for Arizona this week. The Wildcats kept their bowl hopes alive by pulling off the 34-28 upset win at UCLA as 20-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that victory. Now they sit at 4-6 on the season with two very winnable home games against Washington State and Arizona State to finish the season. There will be no letdown following that UCLA win knowing they are so close to getting to a bowl, which would be huge for second-year head coach Jedd Fisch and these players considering they haven't been to a bowl since 2017.
This is a letdown spot for their opponent instead. Washington State just clinched a bowl berth, getting to 6-4 with a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week. It's also a sandwich spot with the Apple Cup on deck against Washington next week. I don't see the Cougars being motivated at all to go into Arizona and win this game this week given the spot.
Washington State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Wrong team favored here. Roll with Arizona Saturday.
|11-19-22||Kansas State v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5||48-31||Loss||-110||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State/West Virginia UNDER 54.5
Kansas State just wants to get into West Virginia and get out with a win. The Wildcats control their own destiny to make the Big 12 Championship Game. They aren't concerned about running up the score. They are going to rely on their running game and defense to go in and get a win, and I look for this to be a defensive struggle as a result.
Kansas State has the best running game and one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They rush for 215 yards per game and hold opponents to 17.5 points per game. West Virginia has an average offense that averages just 5.5 yards per play. They showed they could win a defensive struggle last week in a 23-20 victory over Oklahoma at home. WVU likes to run the ball too averaging 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 40 for Kansas State.
It will be cold and windy at West Virginia with the forecast calling for 30 degrees and 15 MPH winds at kickoff. Both teams want to run the ball anyway, and they will want to run it even more with it being windy. This has been a low-scoring series as it is. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Kansas State and West Virginia have seen 51 or fewer combined points. That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 54.5-point total. Enough said. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||UMass +33.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||3-20||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UMass +33.5
The UMass Minutemen have quietly been very competitive here of late. They haven't lost a game by more than 28 points since Week 2 at Toledo and Week 1 at Tulane in a 32-point loss. That includes a 7-point loss to Eastern Michigan, an 18-point loss to Liberty and a 2-point loss to Arkansas State. The Minutemen won't be losing by five touchdowns Saturday, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
Texas A&M may not be able to score 35 points in this one. In fact, they haven't scored more than 31 points in any game this season. It is a lost season for the Aggies as they sit at 3-7 following six consecutive losses. How motivated do you really think they are to be playing this game against UMass this weekend? The answer is not at all. So lacking the motivation will make it tough for them to cover this big of a number. It will be a sleepy 12 PM EST start time and I don't expect many fans to turn out for this game at all, so there will be zero home-field advantage.
Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games coming in. UMass can run the ball averaging 160 rushing yards per game this season. Texas A&M allows 221 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Minutemen are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. SEC opponents. Roll with UMass Saturday.
|11-19-22||Navy +16.5 v. Central Florida||Top||17-14||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +16.5
This is a terrible spot for UCF this week. They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane. They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and I don't think they have much gas left in the tank here.
This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy. UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida. They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses. Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week.
UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning. It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night. I expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important. The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it.
Navy has no quit in them. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs. If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire.
Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite. Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. That will be the key to success again this season. Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game.
UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush.
UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored. Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen. Take Navy Saturday.
|11-18-22||San Diego State -14 v. New Mexico||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 37 m||Show|
20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week. And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.
San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.
The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground. The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game. They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game. Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.
New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits. I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one. San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite. The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.
San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall. New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet San Diego State Friday.
|11-17-22||Titans v. Packers -3||27-17||Loss||-115||25 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT). I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless. Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye. I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.
Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense. They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers. No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.
I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time. Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season. They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston. They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.
This is a terrible spot for the Titans. They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days. They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week. They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report. The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.
Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense. This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee. The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.
Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-17-22||SMU v. Tulane OVER 64.5||Top||24-59||Win||100||72 h 22 m||Show|
20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5
The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team. They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch. And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night. The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.
Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game. They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF. They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.
Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago. In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings. And we only need 65 here to cash this total. The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-16-22||Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7.5||31-24||Loss||-105||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5
Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week. Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week. No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes. I expect them to win in a blowout.
This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team. Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th. That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference. That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.
Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles. Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play. Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.
It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late. They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards. They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards. But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron. The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games. Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.
Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game. The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win. The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight. Take Kent State Wednesday.
|11-15-22||Bowling Green +16 v. Toledo||Top||42-35||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16
Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit. They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three. They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.
Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible. They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season. The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East. They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week. So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week. That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.
The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated. After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks. They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.
Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.
|11-14-22||Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 44.5||Top||32-21||Loss||-110||93 h 34 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5
Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season. UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games. I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.
Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well. In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings. That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total. The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points. So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.
The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season. They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.
The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five. They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.
The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game. The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football. But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run. They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages. They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.
Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins. The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-13-22||Chargers +7 v. 49ers||16-22||Win||100||107 h 47 m||Show|
15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7
The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5. The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta. So what has changed since the lookahead line? Nothing really. So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.
I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh. And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries. Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game. The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out. The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them. People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them. San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat. The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.
The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan. Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more. The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-13-22||Cowboys -4 v. Packers||Top||28-31||Loss||-110||65 h 56 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4
The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles. They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.
So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back. He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way. But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.
Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy. Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL. He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys. He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.
The Packers are a mess injury-wise. They have 15 more players on the injury report. THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week. Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week. That leaves them very thin at the position. They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season. Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.
Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week. If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week. Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season. That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat. They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-13-22||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||17-27||Loss||-110||60 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate. All six losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so getting 9.5 points per is some value. Their first two wins came by 24 over the Colts and by 28 over the Chargers. They finally won a close game last week with a 27-20 comeback win over the Raiders, and that victory will give them some confidence heading into this game with the Chiefs.
Jacksonville ranks 8th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 11th at 5.7 yards per play. The Jaguars rank 16th in total defense at 343.4 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, which are numbers of a 5-4 or better team not one that is 3-6. So the Jaguars are undervalued due to their record and catching too many points this week as a result.
Kansas City just cannot be trusted as a big favorite. We saw that last week as they needed OT to beat the Titans with a backup QB in Willis, 20-17 as 14-point favorites. So this is now a bad spot for the Chiefs off an OT game. Home favorites coming off an OT home win are 23-41 ATS over the last 64 tries. They have a big divisional showdown on deck with the Chargers, making this a sandwich spot.
The Titans ran for 172 yards on the Chiefs last week, which is their weakness. The Jaguars average 147 rushing yards pre game and 5.1 per carry, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground to keep them in this game and keep the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.
Kansas City is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining 450 or yards per game on average in its last three games. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-13-22||Broncos +3 v. Titans||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||144 h 13 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3
The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games. They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer. Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.
Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage. Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week. This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball. But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.
What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play. I love backing good defensive teams. The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.
Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion. It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night. Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.
This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired. The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense. I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.
The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued. They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game. They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are. They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.
I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||99 h 27 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4
I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week. They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season. They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards. That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.
Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record. They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game. Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.
The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover. The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3. But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer. They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.
The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams. They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road. The Browns are better than all three of those teams. And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.
I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense. Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week. Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt. There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.
This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua. He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears. CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Browns Sunday.
|11-12-22||California +14 v. Oregon State||10-38||Loss||-110||73 h 6 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +14
Death, taxes and Cal's Justin Wilcox as an underdog. Wilcox is 24-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of California. He is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Cal. He is also 7-0 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as the coach of Cal. I'll take these two never lost systems to the bank Saturday with Cal +14 at Oregon State.
The Golden Bears are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate this season. All six losses came by 19 points or fewer so they were competitive in every game. That includes a 7-point loss at Notre Dame as 13.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Washington as 7.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss at USC last week as 21.5-point dogs. They have proven they can play with the big boys in this conference.
Now they actually take a step down in class this week against Oregon State, which has no business laying 14 points to Cal this week. The Beavers are coming off a misleading 21-24 loss at Washington in which they should have lost by more. They were outgained by 136 yards by the Huskies. The only teams Oregon State have outgained by more than 83 yards this season are Boise State in Week 1, Montana State and Colorado.
California is 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oregon State with all three losses coming by 4 points or less. The Golden Bears are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games as road dogs of 10.5 to 14 points. Take California Saturday.
|11-12-22||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3.5||36-34||Loss||-110||72 h 35 m||Show|
15* UNC/Wake Forest ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -3.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They have lost two consecutive games to fall to 6-3 this season. Both were misleading as they committed a combined 11 turnovers to give the games away to Louisville and NC State, both on the road. Now they are back home for a Saturday night game and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and hand rival UNC their first conference loss of the season.
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with its lone loss coming to Clemson in overtime. Now they face one of the luckiest teams in the country in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 8-1 this season while going 5-0 in games decided by one score. That includes wins over App State by 2, Georgia State by 7, Miami by 3, Duke by 3 and Virginia by 3. That was a Virginia team missing their starting RB and their top three receivers last week. UNC's luck runs out this week.
Now the Tar Heels take a big step up in class this week as this will be their toughest test of the season. UNC's suspect defense will finally get exposed this week, similar to when Notre Dame beat them 45-32 to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season. They gave up 576 total yards to a suspect Fighting Irish offense. The Tar Heels are allowing 31.0 points per game, 457.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and will struggle to get any stops against a Wake Forest offense that is averaging 42.8 points per game at home this season.
Wake Forest also wants revenge from two heartbreaking losses to UNC the last two seasons both on the road by 6 and 3 points. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings. The home team is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Wake Forest is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games. UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following a conference game. Bet Wake Forest Saturday.
|11-12-22||Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5||31-3||Loss||-110||71 h 6 m||Show|
15* Kansas State/Baylor FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2.5
Baylor is 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS this season and very close to being undefeated. Their three losses came to BYU (OT), Oklahoma State despite outgaining them by 78 yards and the Cowboys were off a bye week and out for revenge from the Big 12 Championship, plus a fluky 3-point loss at WVU in which they outgained the Mountaineers by 90 yards and their QB got hurt.
Baylor has since gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS after that loss to WVU and is playing its best football of the season. The Bears beat Kansas 35-23 as 10.5-point favorites in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained the Jayhawks by 149 yards. They crushed Texas Tech 45-17 on the road then upset Oklahoma 38-35 on the road. The Bears are now in position to get back to the Big 12 title game and will be motivated to do so by taking down Kansas State this week.
Baylor is a better team than Kansas State plus has home-field advantage, so the Bears should be more than only 2.5-point favorites here. The Wildcats have lost to the two best teams in the conference outside of Baylor in TCU and Texas. Baylor could very well be the best team in the conference again this season as I stated before they could easily be 9-0.
What makes Baylor so good is that they win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. That's the advantage K-State usually has over teams. They won't have that advantage this week. Baylor also has the better quarterback and skill position players. The Bears average 211 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, while allowing just 127 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.
Texas just rushed for 269 yards on Kansas State last week and compiled 466 total yards. TCU also rushed for 218 yards on Kansas State and racked up 498 total yards. This clearly isn't a very good Kansas State defense, and their offense is very predictable. Stop their running game and you stop Kansas State because they struggle throwing the football. They only average 201 passing yards per game.
Baylor is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. This is a 7:00 EST game so it will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal for the Bears. Roll with Baylor Saturday.
|11-12-22||Nebraska +31 v. Michigan||Top||3-34||Push||0||68 h 44 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses. They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs. They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.
Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday. After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season. That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff. Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again. They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff. They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks. They aren't worried about getting margin.
Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated. They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime. But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry. Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs. The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.
Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Take Nebraska Saturday.
|11-12-22||Alabama v. Ole Miss +12.5||30-24||Win||100||68 h 35 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5
This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season. They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff. That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban. I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.
The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss. That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now. There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.
Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread. It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama. That is a huge advantage. It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table. The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.
Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU. The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around. This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past. They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.
The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks. Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold. He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season. He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.
Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-12-22||New Mexico +22 v. Air Force||Top||3-35||Loss||-110||73 h 41 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22
New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career. He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.
This total is just 37 in some places. So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much. Points become more valuable when the total is this low. The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers. I would know since I was on them.
New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes. The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies. It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.
Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They are very good against the run, which is key here. They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.
This is a bad spot for Air Force. They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week. They also beat Navy 13-10. I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points. Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.
Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game. Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet New Mexico Saturday.
|11-12-22||Louisville +7 v. Clemson||Top||16-31||Loss||-107||68 h 39 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7
Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game. The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs. They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites. They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.
But last week might have been the most impressive of them all. Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week. They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards. That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.
Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week. And this is a terrible spot for Clemson. The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week. Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out. That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice. I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.
You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though. They have barely been getting by all season. They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6. That's four games that went down to the wire. I think this one will too. Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds. I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.
AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards. Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards. They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss. These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario. There tends to be a hangover effect.
Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points. Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|11-12-22||North Texas +6 v. UAB||Top||21-41||Loss||-110||68 h 38 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6
I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend. The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued. They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.
North Texas is in control of its own destiny. Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for. Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday. The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.
You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch. They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky. They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB. And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.
Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game. This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention. That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here. Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game. And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played. They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.
Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points. They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense. The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.
North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Roll with North Texas Saturday.
|11-12-22||Liberty v. Connecticut +14.5||33-36||Win||100||64 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5
I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week. But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season. They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score. They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks. That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.
I want Liberty as an underdog. I don't want them as a favorite. Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite. The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior. They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well. They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron. That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.
UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS. The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility. They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued. That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog. They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot. Take Connecticut Saturday.
|11-12-22||Notre Dame v. Navy +15.5||35-32||Win||100||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5
This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season. Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.
The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season. Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson. Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV. They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.
Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson. This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week. The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team. Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.
I love the matchup for Navy as well. Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now. They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games. Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense. They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season. They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.
Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%). Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game. The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-12-22||SMU v. South Florida OVER 72||41-23||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72
The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week. That was the highest-scoring game in college football history. It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points. The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.
The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively. They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.
But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall. The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.
The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-11-22||Fresno State v. UNLV OVER 59||Top||37-30||Win||100||73 h 27 m||Show|
25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59
I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday. Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games. They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.
After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit. Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.
Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future. That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season. He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.
Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State. He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week. Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.
UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield. Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed. As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off. These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.
This has been an OVER series. The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points. UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win. The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games. The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati||Top||25-27||Win||100||71 h 57 m||Show|
20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5
East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough. Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week. They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.
Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season. The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites. They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.
You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference. The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents. That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses. But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.
East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt. This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.
Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense. They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game. The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.
The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere. That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it. Take East Carolina Friday.
|11-10-22||Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 61||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||46 h 26 m||Show|
20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61
Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations. I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention. And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.
The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout. These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least. In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings. They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.
Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game. Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense. But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.
Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game. They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season. They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.
The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season. We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC. We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season. The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-09-22||Buffalo v. Central Michigan +110||Top||27-31||Win||110||22 h 56 m||Show|
20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110
Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers. Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.
With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table. They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week. The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.
I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here. They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron. That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.
In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK. The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least. Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season. They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.
Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record. They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record. Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.
Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games. The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games. Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-08-22||Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo||Top||21-28||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5
Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West. Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already. They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.
Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee. They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season. They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs. They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play. Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.
Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game. Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites. He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays. The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.
Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog. The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo. Bet Ball State Tuesday.
|11-07-22||Ravens v. Saints +4||Top||27-13||Loss||-110||189 h 0 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4
The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now. That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.
New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play. The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.
The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season. They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers. That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.
Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals. They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards. Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.
Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season. The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards. They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense. Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.
The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team. They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play. They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.
Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field. Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field. I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7. I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa. I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.
The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury. That would be two huge losses. Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns. Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores. There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football. The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.
Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown. Bet the Saints Monday.
|11-06-22||Rams v. Bucs -125||13-16||Win||100||152 h 58 m||Show|
15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.
Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team. It will give them the break mentally they need. Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now. And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks. They also could get some players back in the secondary.
The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost. I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week. Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.
The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay. The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers. All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.
More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits. They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers. They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half. And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle. He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.
While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue. They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that. Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure. Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury. TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.
Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play. The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.
Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage. All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line. They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week. Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-06-22||Colts +6.5 v. Patriots||Top||3-26||Loss||-110||157 h 24 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5
This line is an overreaction from last week's results. Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets. So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.
I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now. Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3. We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.
Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start. He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future. Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards. But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.
I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary. Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing. He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.
I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines. Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself. Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving. He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action. The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver. Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.
After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week. But their problems aren't fixed with that one win. It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.
Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won. The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty. The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones. He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week. Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.
Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams. Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense. The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even. These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same. The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.
Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|11-06-22||Packers v. Lions +3.5||Top||9-15||Win||100||149 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four. But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers. It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.
It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week. Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week. Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state. This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.
The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss. They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it. Their problems aren't fixed. The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.
The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers. It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit. Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb. They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.
I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins. But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up. WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing. Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it. This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either. This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.
The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|11-06-22||Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45.5||Top||35-32||Win||100||50 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5
This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy. That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games. They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.
Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week. They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week. Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room. Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.
But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense. After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week. They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground. They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.
Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon. They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary. The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards. And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.
The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week. But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds. It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.
Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play. Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-22||Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 54||21-30||Loss||-110||68 h 0 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54
Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country. The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season. But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.
This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game. Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury. They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.
But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris. He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action. I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.
As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series. The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points. Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again. Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54. That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-05-22||Arizona +17.5 v. Utah||20-45||Loss||-110||67 h 26 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5
The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season. They have been competitive even in losses. They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago. Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs. Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.
Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense. The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Those are even better numbers than Utah this season. They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.
The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number. Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17. Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late. It's unlikely he will play this week. They are also down to a third-string RB.
The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play. But if they are out it would be an added bonus. Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores. Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores. Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores. All three are questionable for this contest.
The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback. He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football. He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.
Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Bet Arizona Saturday.
|11-05-22||James Madison +7.5 v. Louisville||Top||10-34||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5
James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State. But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them. They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.
Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville. They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.
The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern. He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game. Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.
The Dukes have elite numbers this season. They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers. So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable. Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.
This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too. They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week. That makes this a sandwich spot for them. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.
Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992. Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week. Bet James Madison Saturday.
|11-05-22||Texas -2.5 v. Kansas State||34-27||Win||100||67 h 5 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5
I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week. They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season. They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State. They arguably should have won all three games.
The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country. They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play. They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way. The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.
I love the matchup for Texas this week. The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country. They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.
TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago. Texas can do the same. The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game. They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.
Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach. Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach. Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use. The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|11-05-22||UNLV +6.5 v. San Diego State||10-14||Win||100||67 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5
I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week. After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame. Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.
Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State. On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.
"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said. "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."
While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State. They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game. That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.
UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games. They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play. Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.
San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State. They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class. They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.
The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Take UNLV Saturday.
|11-05-22||Liberty +13.5 v. Arkansas||Top||21-19||Win||100||64 h 56 m||Show|
20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5
Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football. He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach. What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable. He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons. That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.
What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who has been under center. Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job. He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.
Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas. They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game. Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach. They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks. They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze. That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread. They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27. Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.
Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Roll with Liberty Saturday.
|11-05-22||Tennessee +9 v. Georgia||Top||13-27||Loss||-110||136 h 42 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9
A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title. That feels the same with this Tennessee team. The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team. They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.
The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck. They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team. They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.
The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons. He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did. He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop. Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.
While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor. They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has. This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense. After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.
Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today. The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida. Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game. And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.
Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||64 h 34 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5
I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week. They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.
Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32. Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards. And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards. Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week. This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.
The spot is a terrible one for UCF. They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week. They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year. Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference. That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.
UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home. They finish with three of four on the road. They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina. That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.
I love the matchup for Memphis. The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games. They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.
UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week. He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground. The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week. But I like Memphis either way in this one. They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.
Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses. Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses. The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week. The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Memphis Saturday.
|11-05-22||New Mexico +16.5 v. Utah State||10-27||Loss||-110||63 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5
Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season. They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title. QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury. The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now. They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.
But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected. That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium. The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.
New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.
Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run. The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday. Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.
Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4. They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast. Take New Mexico Saturday.
|11-05-22||UTSA v. UAB +105||Top||44-38||Loss||-100||63 h 27 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105
The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate. Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week. He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.
The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team. They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky. They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing. They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense. They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.
UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams. The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week. They are looking at this game as their National Championship.
UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season. They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in that game, or by 99 yards. Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.
UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip. The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses. UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog. The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-05-22||Middle Tennessee State -2 v. Louisiana Tech||24-40||Loss||-110||63 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2
I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week. They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week. They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season. They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.
The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42). They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game. Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.
This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU. They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone. The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.
And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense. They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages. They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.
These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners. Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play. The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play. LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP. They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.
Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.
|11-04-22||Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 55.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||75 h 54 m||Show|
20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5
This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night. There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH. That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium. Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.
Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing. So they will be in their comfort zone. The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12. Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages. So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.
Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts. That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow. They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game. The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game. They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings. It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.
Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses. That extra time favors the defenses. The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-03-22||Eagles -13.5 v. Texans||29-17||Loss||-116||50 h 39 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points. They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play. They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger. And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.
Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play. No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play. No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury. And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game. And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.
Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it. Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times. The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense. Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game. But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee. They also throw for 246 yards per game.
The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up. They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense. Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks. Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Eagles Thursday.
|11-03-22||Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Loss||-110||48 h 49 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3
Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season. The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it. Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.
The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat. They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage. Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards. Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.
Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record. The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall. Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition. Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.
And that's the difference in this game. One team can get stops while the other one can't. Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play. Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.
These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.
Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in. The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win. They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State. This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal. Bet Appalachian State Thursday.
|11-02-22||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5||35-22||Loss||-114||23 h 18 m||Show|
15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies. They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high. After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start. This is much better than a 2-6 team.
The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury. After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton. They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy. And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home. We should get their best effort here.
Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU. They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense. I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best. That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.
Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate. The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game. They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense. And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo. Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites. They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.
This Central Michigan offense is broken. The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron. Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week. The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy. The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games. The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week. Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.
|11-01-22||Buffalo v. Ohio OVER 58.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night. Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.
Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season. They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.
Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season. The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average. They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play. This is not a good defense.
Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in. Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season. The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.
The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week. The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games. The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|10-31-22||Bengals -3 v. Browns||Top||13-32||Loss||-120||146 h 23 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3
Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals. I thought this line should have been higher than 3. I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.
The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league. They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns. Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores. And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.
The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps. That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards. They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.
The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game. Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games. Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.
That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett. I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.
The Browns also have injury concerns on defense. Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable. Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable. This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.
The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.
The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories. The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road. These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals Monday.