15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  After winning five straight games all by 7 points or more, the Ravens suffered a massive letdown on Thanksgiving Day with a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites.  No question getting Burrow back helped the Bengals, but it was a comedy of errors by the Ravens as they fumbled going into the end zone for a touchdown as part of their 5 turnovers.

It was Jeff Monken's worst play-calling game of the season as the Ravens got too pass-happy against the Bengals.  Now they will get back to running the football against a Pittsburgh defense that has been shockingly bad against the run.  The Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills last week in a 26-7 home loss.

This Pittsburgh offense is even worse with a banged-up Rodgers at QB and no weapons.  The Steelers managed just 166 total yards against the Bills, who also have a bad defense.  Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense at 281.7 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  Compare that to the Ravens, which averaged 317.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play and the Ravens have the much better offense.  Those numbers include all the games missed by Jackson, too.

Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense allowing 365.1 yards per game.  This isn't your classic Mike Tomlin defense, in fact it's probably the worst one he's ever had.  It's an old, banged up defense.  The Steelers will be without DE Derrick Harmon and SS Kyle Dugger, plus they have eight defenders on IR already.  The Ravens should be able to get whatever they want against them.

Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL.  The return to health since the bye week has made all the difference during this 5-1 run.  The offense has scored at least 23 points in five of their last six games and easily should have topped that number against the Bengals if not for the five turnovers.  The defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons had a chance to get back in the NFC South title race last week with a win.  Instead, they lost on a last-second field goal to the lowly Jets to fall to 4-8 on the season and out of contention.  They have suffered gut punch after gut punch with two OT losses and a missed XP in a 1-point loss to the Patriots during their 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS run in their last seven games.

I don't think the Falcons get back up off the mat this week after that last-second loss to the Jets.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.  And the Falcons in their current state have no chance of keeping this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons were already without QB Michael Pennix Jr. and WR Drake London.  They were hopeful to get London back this week, but now that they are out of playoff contention he's not going to go.  They have nine players out or on IR on offense.  The defense is worse with 12 players out or on IR.  They have allowed 26.0 points per game in their last six games.

The Seahawks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is the best mark in the NFL.  They have no weaknesses and one of the best defenses in the NFL.  This healthy defense is showing what it's capable of holding the Rams to 249 total yards and the Vikings to 162 total yards in two of their last three games.  They held the Titans in check for three quarters with a three-touchdown lead before letting go of the rope in the 4th with the game in hand.  They didn't make that mistake last week in a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Their defense wasn't healthy early but it is now and wreaking havoc on teams.  This is a big step down in class for Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense that has been a little disappointing in recent weeks against the Rams, Titans and Vikings, which are three great defenses.  They will get back going here indoors against this bad Atlanta defense that just allowed 27 points to the Jets last week.  This has blowout written all over it given all the factors and I can't believe we are getting Seattle as less than a TD favorite.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Bucs UNDER 42

This will be a rematch from one of the ugliest games of the season in New Orleans in their first meeting on October 26th.  The Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in a game that saw just 487 yards of total offense.  The Bucs only had 212 yards while the Saints had 275 yards.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these divisional matchups as a result.

The Saints are broken on offense.  They rank 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game, 26th in total offense at 296.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  But they have an underrated defense, one that ranks 12th in total defense at 314.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.

This combination of a terrible offense and underrated defense has led to the Saints going 7-0-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 44 or fewer combined points with their opponents in all eight games, and 40 or fewer in six of them.  This total of 42 is pretty high for a game involving the Saints right now.

The Bucs are also broken on offense right now.  Baker Mayfield is playing through injury, and he's doing so without two of his best weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.  His best lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs is banged up and questionable.  The Bucs went UNDER the total in their last two games with 41 combined points with the Rams and 37 with the Cardinals.

Mayfield was injured in a 34-7 loss to the Rams.  The Bucs managed just 203 total yards in that game.  He returned last week and the Bucs managed just 20 points and 279 total yards against the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses in the NFL that was giving up big points and yards to everyone prior to that game.  

The Saints will hold the Bucs in check, too.  And a pretty much fully healthy Bucs defense will make life tough on a Saints offense that is missing RB Alvin Kamara and RT Taliese Fuaga.  Tyler Shough is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and WR Chris Olave is nowhere near 100% even though he is expected to play.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams in this one.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bucs and Saints with 36 or fewer combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The Saints rank dead last (32nd) in red zone TD percentage (38.7%) while the Bucs rank 25th (50%).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Bills OVER 50.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team especially now with Joe Burrow at QB.  In his first game back from injury, Burrow led the Bengals to 32 points against a very good Baltimore defense.  He didn't even have Tee Higgins due to a concussion, and Higgins is back this week.  The Bengals are basically fully healthy on offense now.

But this Cincinnati defense is the reason they are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 31.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 410 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  It was a fluke they only allowed 14 points to the Ravens, who fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback as part of their 5 turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.

The Bills will hang a big number on the Bengals at home, where their offense has shined this season.  The Bills are scoring 32.5 points per game and allowing 26.0 points per game at home this season.  They get both TE Dalton Kincaid and LT Dion Dawkins back from injury this week, who they didn't have in scoring 26 points on the Steelers last week with a ground-heavy approach.

Both teams are great at inside zone runs, and both defenses are terrible at defending inside zone runs.  The reason I don't believe the Bills are a real Super Bowl contender is a leaky defense.  And that defense will be without DE Joey Bosa and LB Terrel Bernard this week.  They are all banged up in the secondary as well, so Burrow should feast through the air and Brown should have a big day on the ground.

The forecast is actually going to favor a shootout even though there will be snow.  There will be no wind, which is the biggest factor.  The snow actually favors the offensive players because they know where they are going, while the defenders have to react and that's where the slips happen.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* North Texas/Tulane AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on North Texas ML -125

North Texas has been undervalued all season.  The Mean Green are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming to South Florida, which I actually believe to be the best team in the AAC but they were done in by close losses.  North Texas is easily the second-best team in the conference, and that will be on display tonight as they take down Tulane and are favored for good reason here on the road.

North Texas has been absolutely dominant with the pedal to the medal in the 2H of the season since that loss to USF to put itself in this position to make the 12-team playoff with a win tonight.  The Mean Green are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games beating UTSA 55-17, Charlotte 54-20, Navy 31-17, UAB 53-24, Rice 56-24 and Temple 52-25.  They have taken no prisoners and will keep their foot on the gas tonight.

Tulane has been far less impressive, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and getting by with several close wins.  There is a common opponent in there in UTSA, which Tulane lost 48-26 to.  And when you compare the numbers of these two teams, it's easy to see that North Texas is the better squad.

The Mean Green average 7.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the country.  Tulane averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  Solid numbers, but a far cry from the two best teams in the conference in North Texas and USF.

North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the country at 325.7 yards per game through the air behind Drew Mestemaker (70.6% completions, 3,825 yards, 29 TD/4 INT).  They also rush for 186.1 yards per game with tremendous balance.  This is a terrible matchup for Tulane, which in recent games has allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to Florida Atlantic.  Their weakness is their secondary, and Mestemaker and company will exploit it.  Temps will be in the 50's tonight with no wind so the forecast favors the Mean Green passing attack.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Kennesaw State/Jacksonville State C-USA Championship No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on Jacksonville State three weeks ago, 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State two weeks ago, and 48 points and 452 total yards on Liberty last week.  Kennesaw State is averaging 36.0 points per game in its last seven games.  

I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB here down the stretch.  He is completing 64.7% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and averaging 9.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 379 yards and 7 scores.

The problem for Kennesaw State is their defense, which gets gashed consistently especially on the ground.  Jacksonville State rushed for 252 yards on them, Missouri State 191 and Liberty 291 the last three games.  They are injured at LB which is a big reason for their problems stopping the run.

Jacksonville State has one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook (1,588 yards, 15 TD) and a dual-threat QB in Caden Creel (973 yards, 6.4/carry, 6 TD).  The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country rushing for 262 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 per carry.  They are going to get whatever they want on the ground against this leaky Kennesaw State defense.

Jacksonville State is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Gamecocks won 37-34 at Western Kentucky last game for 71 combined points.  These teams combined for 71 points despite 5 Field Goals between them, so they actually got bogged down in scoring territory several times.  The Gamecocks racked up 515 total yards on WKU.

Kennesaw State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games going for 61 combined points with Jacksonville State, 75 with Missouri State and 90 with Liberty, which was at 70 at the end of regulation.  They had 579 total yards against Jacksonville State in that first meeting and 8 trips to the red zone, which resulted in just 3 TD and 2 FG as they turned it over 5 times.  So that 35-26 loss was a bit misleading and the Owls have a lot more room to put more points on the board in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Troy/James Madison Sun Belt Championship No-Brainer on James Madison -23

James Madison has been going for style points the entire 2nd half of the season knowing if they won out they would be a candidate to make the 12-team playoff.  They have done their part, and they will continue to go for style points tonight against Troy to impress the committee.  That's why I'm willing to lay this 23-point spread, plus several other reasons.

The Dukes are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.  In their last six games, they beat Old Dominion by 36 at home, Texas State by 32 on the road, App State by 48 at home and Coastal Carolina by 49 on the road.  They continued to tack on points late in all of those games.

Old Dominion is easily the second-best team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 63-27.  Texas State is probably the 3rd-most talented team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 52-20 on the road.  Troy is just a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team that was fortunate to make the title game due to playing in the worse division, plus a meltdown by Southern Miss which lost its final three games of the season.  Their reward for making the title game? Get beat down by James Madison.

This is a terrible matchup for Troy.  The Trojans can't run the ball ranking 120th in rushing at 109.2 yards per game and 130th at 3.0 yards per carry.  They will have to rely on the immobile Goose Crowder to throw the football behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.  The Trojans rank dead last in the country in pressure rate allowed and dead last allowing 4.1 sacks per game.  Old Dominion ranks 5th in the country in pressure rate defensively.

Against the only opponent that is even close to JMU talent-wise, Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion three games ago.  They were held to 138 total yards and allowed 503 yards, getting outgained by 365 yards by the Monarchs.  When JMU beat ODU 63-27, the Dukes outgained the Monarchs 624 to 285, or by 339 yards.  Bet James Madison Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys came back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

Speaking of Kansas City, Dallas won 31-28 as 3.5-point home dogs over the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.  They racked up 457 total yards on the Chiefs and held them to 362 yards, outgaining them by 95 yards.  So the Cowboys are now coming off consecutive wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year and two of the better teams in the NFL this year.  There will be no letdown here with this being a National TV game and the Cowboys still on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 393.1 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 29.2 points per game.

The Lions are broken and one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 16-9 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point dogs and needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT as 14-point favorites over the Giants at home.  Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  The Lions then lost 31-24 as 3-point home favorites to the Packers last week.

 It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now.  FS Kerby Joseph, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  SS Brian Branch is questionable.  The Cowboys are going to get whatever they want against this suspect Detroit defense that was shredded by the Giants and Packers at home the last two weeks.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright and WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Four starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, LG Kayode Awosika, RT Penei Sewell and C Graham Glasgow.  What a mess.  

But the biggest blow came last week when star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the Packers game with an ankle injury.  He hasn't practiced yet this week and is very doubtful to play tonight.  Jared Goff is going to be throwing to guys you've probably never heard of in TeSlaa, Kennedy, Lovett, Dwelley, Firkser and Rucci.  He's also going to be under duress all game and hates pressure up the middle, where Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark reside and will wreak havoc against the run and pass up the middle.

Given the health of the Cowboys compared to the health of the Lions, the wrong team is favored here.  I cannot believe this line opened +3.5 on the Cowboys this week.  I would make them a 25* at any underdog price, so +3 as of this writing is good too.  Make sure to put at least 25% of your bet on the Cowboys money line as well.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Panthers OVER 45

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They have a respectable offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is terrible and decimated by injuries right now.  They have no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rams offense, who will lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a big number on Carolina.

This total is lower than it should be due to both teams coming off low-scoring games.  The Rams benefited from Baker Mayfield getting injured last week.  It was a brutal beat for over backs as the Rams and Bucs combined for 38 points at halftime, but only combined to score 3 points after intermission.  The Rams sat on the ball knowing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater could do nothing to move the football.  The Rams won't have that luxury this week and will have to keep scoring as Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown time and time again they will keep coming.

The Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers.  That game was also fluky.  Brock Purdy threw 3 INT and almost all of them were deep in Panthers territory to take away points.  Bryce Young threw a INT at the 1-yard line on 1st down to take a TD off the board.  It was a fluky result and should have seen more combined points than it did.  But we'll take advantage here and bet the OVER in a 'buy low' spot off two teams coming off unders last week.

The Rams rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 9th in total offense at 358.4 yards per game and 7th at 5.9 yards per play.  Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and he has his full compliment of weapons for this one with Adams, Nacua and Williams plus Tutu Atwell returns from injury this week.

The Panthers will be without three starters on defense this week.  They were already without leading tackler Chrstian Rozeboom (91 tackles), but now they will be without their best CB Jaycee Horn and starting SS Tre'Von Moehrig.  Horn suffered a concussion against the 49ers last week, and Moehrig is suspended for punching Jauan Jennings in the balls.  They can't afford to be without these guys if they want any chance of slowing down this Rams offense.

Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 49 points in five of its last nine games.  The Rams will be without starting CB Quintin Lake, plus FS Kamren Kitchens and NT Poona Ford are questionable.  Young will find some success against this Los Angeles secondary and I look for the Panthers to keep coming to get us this OVER.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind, so scoring conditions are good.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +3

Just looking at this from a line value perspective, it's clear there's value on the Jets +3.  The Falcons were 2-point road underdogs last week to the New Orleans Saints.  Now they are 3-point road favorites over the Jets.  I have the Jets and Saints power rated about the same, so this 5-point adjustment in favor of the Falcons has gone too far.

That was a fluky 24-10 win at New Orleans.  The Saints missed 2 FG's and scored 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They simply got nothing out of their scoring opportunities, while the Falcons got one big play to blow it open.  That misleading final has the Falcons overvalued this week.

Remember, the Falcons are still without two of their best players in QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London this week.  It's. Falcone team that had lost five straight prior to that win over the Saints, including two OT losses.  It's a tired Atlanta team playing for an 8th consecutive week now with a couple OT losses sprinkled in.  Injuries remain a problem down two O-Line starters and possibly a 3rd, plus 9 defenders on IR or ruled out.

Kirk Cousins played fine indoors in perfect elements in New Orleans.  It will be a different story here outdoors in the elements in New York.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation and double-digit winds forecast with gusts up to 30 MPH.  His lack of arm strength will be much more noticeable here.

What makes the Jets grossly overvalued is the wild stat where they don't have a INT all season, and they have forced just one turnover.  That is unheard of and just shows how unlucky they have been.  The Jets rank great from a success rate perspective defensively.  They are 14th in total defense at 321.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  They held the Ravens to just 241 total yards last week.

Look for Breece Hall and this Jets rushing attack to have a lot of success against the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 26th against the run at 133.1 yards per game and 23rd at 4.6 yards per carry.  This is simply a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.  I have the Jets favored at home here.

The Falcons are 11-23-1 ATS following a win since 2020.  Teams coming off a win that ended a 5-plus game losing or more are just 6-15 SU & 8-11-2 ATS over the last five years.  Tyrod Taylor is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when the team he is playing for is under .500.  The Falcons are 0-4 SU in outdoor games this season getting outscored by 11.8 points per game in those four losses.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The weather will be similar to the last time Brock Purdy traveled to Cleveland a few years ago.  It was a rainy, windy game where he finished just 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a INT and a fumble in a 19-17 road loss.  Purdy is coming off a 3 INT game against Carolina in his first game back from injury.  He is notoriously bad in poor weather games like this one.

Temps will be in the 30's with 25 MPH sustained winds and gusts of over 40 MPH at times.  The total for this game had cratered to 35.5 as of this writing, but the spread has not cratered with it.  The lower the total the more value there is on the underdog, and boy has there been value on the Browns as a home underdog all season.

Indeed, the Browns are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 1 to the Bengals as 4.5-point dogs with Joe Burrow.  They upset the packers as 7.5-point dogs.  They crushed the Dolphins 31-6 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they hung right with the Ravens in a 7-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Shadeur Sanders made his first start for the Browns last week and led them to a 24-10 win at Las Vegas.  He at least gives them the threat of the deep ball as Dillon Gabriel gave them nothing in that department.  It was a move the Browns should have made a long time ago to see what they had in Sanders, and he at least gives them a little more life.

But this comes down to this Cleveland defense, which has been dominant at home.  The Browns are allowing just 14.0 points per game, 235.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play at home this season despite facing some very good QB's in Lamar, Burrow, Love and Tua.  Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.  The Browns are actually 13-5 SU at home against teams that are above .500 on the season.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team that hasn't had their bye yet.  That makes this spot even worse for them on a short week after beating the Panthers at home on Monday Night Football.  They will be playing for a 13th consecutive week and their 4th road game in 6 weeks with a lot of travel involved in between, plus the distraction of Thanksgiving Week.

This is a bad, bad San Francisco defense.  The 49ers allowed 488 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 42 points to the Rams three weeks ago, 24 points to the Giants four weeks ago and 475 total yards to a bad Texans offense five weeks ago.  This defense has been much worse on the road, allowing 22.7 points per game, 372 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.

The injury situation isn't any better for the 49ers on defense this week, either.  They were already without DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson.  Now they will be without two more starters this week as DE Okuayinonu and LB Bethune have been ruled out.  The Browns have a dominant offensive line, and that offensive line should win the battle at the line of scrimmage against this decimated 49ers defense.  That will be the difference in the game.  The 49ers only rush for 99.2 yards per game (26th) and 3.6 per carry (31st) this season so they have struggled to move the ball on the ground.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Hawaii after a 38-10 loss at UNLV coming out of their bye last week.  The Rainbow Warriors will want to make amends for that performance in their final regular season game on Senior Night.  I look for them to make easy work of Wyoming tonight.

Hawaii is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes a 38-6 beat down of San Diego State in their last home game, and SDSU is one of the best teams in the conference.  I think the Rainbow Warriors were fat and happy going into their bye week off that win and didn't show up with the same level of focus at UNLV.  They will be refocused tonight.

Wyoming has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing 24-7 to San Diego State, 24-3 to Fresno State and 13-7 to Nevada.  So they have been held to a total of 17 points in their last three games combined.

The Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors, especially since their two best playmakers suffered injuries in their last game and will now be out for this game.  They will be without leading receiver Chris Durr Jr. (46 receptions, 513 yards, 4 TD), and their next-best receiver only has 227 receiving yards so it's a huge loss.  They will also be without their top two RB's in Samuel Harris (552 yards) and Samuel Scott (400 yards).

I just don't know where the offense is going to come from for Wyoming in this game.  I also question their motivation after getting upset by Nevada last week to fall to 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I think they treat this trip to Hawaii more like a vacation than a business trip.  It's all business for the Rainbow Warriors tonight.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Northwestern and Illinois.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

These are two very good defenses with Northwestern allowing just 21.0 points per game and Illinois allowing just 24.2 points per game.  The Wildcats rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.3 seconds.  The Fighting Illini are in no hurry either ranking 89th in tempo.  This will be a classic defensive battle in the Big Ten in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this Northwestern +7.5 ticket.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

Illinois needs to be able to throw the ball to be effective on offense, and it won't be able to throw the ball today in these conditions.  The Fighting Illini have struggled running the football all year.  They rank 108th in rushing at 132.2 yards per game and 102nd at 3.8 yards per carry.  Northwestern has been solid against the run allowing 141.8 yards per game.

With this game being played mostly on the ground, it really favors the Wildcats.  They are the better running team ranking 44th at 174 rushing yards per game and 35th at 4.8 yards per carry.  The Fighting Illini allow 127 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

These are two very evenly-matched teams overall so this 7.5-point spread is rich.  Northwestern outgains opponents by 17.3 yards per game while Illinois outgains foes by 17.7 yards per game.  Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* UCLA/USC NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Trojans rank 11th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 5th in total offense at 479.2 yards per game and 6th at 7.2 yards per play.  This despite playing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big Ten play.

The Trojans will come close to covering this total on their own against a UCLA defense that has allowed 48 or more points in three of their last four games to really let go of the rope.  The OVER is 4-0 in UCLA's last four games as a result where they are allowing 45.0 points per game in those four.

It looks like Nico Iamaleava is back at QB this week and he at least gives this UCLA offense a chance.  This is also a big step down in class against this USC defense after having to face Washington, Ohio State and Indiana defenses in three of their last four.  USC is decimated with injuries on defense and just allowed 42 points to Oregon last week.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings and 61 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Look for both offenses to let it all hang out in their final game of the regular season with really nothing at stake for either team.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/South Florida OVER 57.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They never take their foot off the gas and that has been evident all season with their games flying over the totals because they keep scoring late into games.

The OVER is 7-2 in USF's last nine games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all nine games, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game and 1st in total offense at 497 yards per game.

Rice sits at 5-6 on the season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  That means the Owls are going to keep coming late into this game even if they are down big.  They will keep trying to score and will likely have to increase their tempo in the 2H.  Rice is quietly 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 71 or more combined points three times against similar teams to USF in North Texas (80), UConn (71) and UTSA (74).  

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Tampa with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Maryland/Michigan State OVER 48.5

There is a ton of bad weather across the country with snow and windy conditions especially in the Midwest.  Books have listed this total like it will be played outdoors in those elements.  But that's not the case today as this game will actually be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan on a fast track.  This total of 48.5 is too short tonight as a result.

I love the fact that it will be played indoors, but I also love the fact that both Michigan State and Maryland have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  There will be no defensive intensity from either team as a result, and I think a shootout will ensue as both teams unload the entire playbook in this 'meaningless' game.

Maryland just allowed 45 points to a poor Michigan offense at home last week.  The Terrapins have now allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall and it's not like they've played many good offenses during this stretch.  This is a very bad Michigan State defense as well ranking 113th in scoring allowing 30.1 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 56

Both Penn State and Rutgers sit at 5-6 this season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  Only one team can make it, and I think this game will be played very close to the vest as a result.  Neither team will want to make the big mistake with what's at stake.  This total of 56 is too high.

That's especially the case with Penn State involved.  The Nittany Lions have a suspect offense and an elite defense.  Penn State and its opponents have combined for 52 or fewer points in six consecutive games to close out the season.  This total of 56 is too high for a game involving the Nittany Lions.

This Rutgers offense has been terrible when playing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall largely due to being held to 19 points or fewer in four of those six games, including 13 points or fewer in three of them.  They will get nothing against this Penn State defense, either.

Penn State ranks 111th in the country in tempo and will slow this game to a crawl while controlling it with its running game.  That will keep the clock moving and limit possessions for this Rutgers offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington CBS No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Washington Huskies are playing their best football of the season here down the stretch with consecutive blowout wins over Purdue 49-13 and UCLA 48-14.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and ready to pull off the upset against Oregon today.

Oregon is really banged up right now at WR and offensive line.  We've seen the Ducks struggle against some mediocre Big Ten teams on the road this season.  They needed a last-second FG to beat Iowa 18-16 and needed OT to beat Penn State.  I think this will easily be their toughest road test of the season today.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He is completing 72% of his passes for 2,721 yards while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 569 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the nation.  I think he's ready for his flowers on the National TV stage today giving the Ducks all they can handle.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Kennesaw State ML -115

Kennesaw State gets into the C-USA Championship Game with a win today.  While the Owls will be max motivated to capture their 9th win of the season and make that title game, the Liberty Flames are just ready for their season to be overall.

The Flames have lost three consecutive games to Missouri State, FIU and Louisiana Tech to fall to 4-7 on the season and out of bowl contention.  What a major disappointment for a team that everyone pick to win Conference USA this season.

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games, and I don't think this Flames offense can keep up.  Bet Kennesaw State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kennesaw State/Liberty OVER 55

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Liberty's offense has come to life here down the stretch averaging 32.2 points per game in its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Flames' last five games with 57 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 55 is too low, especially since Kennesaw State is the best offense they will have faced during this closing stretch.

Kennesaw State is averaging 34.0 points per game in its last six games.  I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB.  He is completing 65.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and averaging 9.4 per attempt, while also rushing for 307 yards and 6 scores.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with no wind and no rain today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia OVER 52.5

This is a very low total for two teams that play as fast as West Virginia and Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds under Rich Rodriquez.  The Red Raiders rank 22nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  That's impressive considering they have been blowing almost everyone out, so they never take their foot off the gas.

West Virginia will not be going to a bowl game so this is their 'national championship'.  Rodriquez will pull out all the stops here with trick plays and everything he can throw at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers will keep coming late in this game since it's their last game, so getting the necessary points we need in the 4th quarter will be on the table if we need them.

Texas Tech will come close to covering this total on its own with an offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 42.6 points per game and 18th in total offense at 481.6 yards per game.  The Red Raiders should have their way with a WVU defense that ranks 86th in scoring at 29.2 points per game and 68th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game.

Freshman QB Scottie Fox Jr. has really played well here down the stretch for the Mountaineers since taking over four games ago.  They nearly upset TCU, he led them 45 points against Houston, 29 points against Colorado and threw for 353 yards against Arizona State's vaunted defense last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Central Michigan UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Toledo and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 20's with double-digit wins and a 100% chance of snow during the game.

This game will also be played close to the vest as both Toledo and Central Michigan have a chance to make the MAC Championship Game.  I think both teams will be very conservative with what's at stake, and it will lead to more ball control offense and more punts to try and not make the big mistake.

Central Michigan ranks 135th out of 136th teams in tempo snapping the ball every 31.3 seconds.  Only Ohio State has been slower, and Ohio State plays with big leads every week so it makes sense.  CMU plays slow no matter what.  They also keep the ball on the ground with 43.2 rush attempts per game compared to just 18.1 pass attempts.  That keeps the clock moving and favors UNDERS.

Toledo is in no hurry, either, ranking 88th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  The Rockets boast one of the top defenses in the country.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 241.9 yards per game and 2nd at 3.8 yards per play.  They allow just 93.2 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Central Michigan ranks 38th in scoring defense at 22.8 points per game and 38th in total defense at 353.8 yards per game.  So these are two of the best defenses in the MAC with a lot at stake and two teams that like to play slow.  This sets up for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State Egg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 63.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State play every year in the Egg Bowl, and every year it's more low-scoring than projected.  Both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had two full weeks to prepare for this game.  That favors defense over offense when both teams are as familiar with one another as they are coming into this Egg Bowl.

The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the Egg Bowl finishing with 59 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings.  The last seven have all seen 55 or fewer combined points, and the last three in particular have been very low-scoring with 40 combined points in 2024, 24 in 2023 and 46 in 2022.  These are all with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and his high-octane offenses.

I also like the fact that this game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake for both teams.  Ole Miss is trying to qualify for the 12-team playoff, and a win will get them in.  Mississippi State is 5-6 this season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  I think both teams will be playing tight, which also favors the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bengals/Ravens NBC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7

Note: I like a 3-team 7-point teaser at +120 on Ravens PK, Cowboys +10.5 & Packers +10 on Thanksgiving Day.  6-Point teaser pairings with the Ravens -1 I like are Packers +8.5 or better, Jets +8.5 or better and Patriots -1.5 or better.

The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much respect due to the return of Joe Burrow this week.  Burrow is a notoriously slow starter every NFL season, and this will be just like his first start of the season.  He isn't anywhere near 100%, and there's talk of him only being able to play out of the shotgun because his toe is limiting him that much.  He won't be prime Joe Burrow in his first game back from injury.

The Ravens are on a mission to win the AFC North and have played up to their potential since getting healthy.  The Ravens are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS since their bye week with all five wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game.  They beat the Bears by 14 and the Jets by 13 in their two home games during this stretch.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL now that they are healthy.  They have allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games and and average of just 14.0 points per game in their last six games.  They are fully healthy on offense and defense with the exception of backups with WR Rashod Bateman back to give the offense an added weapon.

The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 32.7 points per game, dead last in total defense at 415.8 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  They are without three of their best defenders in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shamar Stewart and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  DE Cam Sample is questionable as well.  

The Ravens are going to get whatever they want against the Bengals.  What really excites me is the thought of the power zone concepts that the Ravens run against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last against that concept.  Derrick Henry is in line for a monster day against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st allowing 156 yards per game and 29th at 5.1 yards per carry.  

Lamar Jackson is 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS vs. Burrow in their careers.  Night game favorites on Thanksgiving are 14-4 ATS since 2006.  Lamar Jackson is 5-0 SU in his career in early week games (before Sunday) winning by an average of 14 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +6

Navy is in a three-way tie for 1st place in the AAC with Tulane and North Texas.  This is a must-win for the Midshipmen if they want to play for a AAC title with a chance to make the 12-team playoff if they come out of it victorious.

While I know Navy will be max-motivated Thursday night, I question the motivation of the Memphis Tigers, who already have three losses in AAC play and have been eliminated from title contention.  They were in the driver's seat after an upset home over South Florida, but have fallen flat on their faces losing their last two AAC games 38-32 at home to Tulane and 31-27 at East Carolina.

This Memphis defense in particular has been absolutely shredded in three of its last four games with the exception being Rice, one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Tigers allowed 564 total yards to South Florida, 457 total yards to Tulane and 454 total yards to East Carolina.

Navy is 8-2 this season with its only two losses coming at North Texas and at home against Notre Dame, two teams who could be participating in the 12-team playoff.  The Midshipmen came up big with a 41-38 home win as 10-point dogs to South Florida last time out, racking up 524 total yards in the win.

Navy QB Blake Horvath is back and healthy.  He had a monster game in a 56-44 win over Memphis last season.  Horvath threw for 192 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 211 yards and 4 scores, totaling 6 touchdowns himself in the win.  You can bet he'll have another monster game against a Memphis defense that has been shredded in recent weeks and one that may just not be all that motivated to handle the physicality that comes with trying to defend the triple-option.  Bet Navy Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Cowboys CBS No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys have a ton of momentum after coming back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles last week.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

The Chiefs are coming off a huge 23-20 (OT) win at home over the Colts.  That game went deep into OT before the Chiefs eventually kicked the game-winning FG with two minutes left.  That means their team was on the field for a lot of plays and nearly an extra full quarter.  Now this is a tough spot for them on a short week with travel involved.  Three key players suffered injuries in that game that they will be without this week in RG Trey Smith, TE Noah Gray and CB Chris Roland-Wallace.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 387.3 yards per game and 4th in scoring at 29.1 points per game.

The Chiefs are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all road games this season with their only win coming against Russell Wilson and the New York Giants.  They lost to the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos, and the Cowboys are good enough to beat them at home here.  At the very least this line should be PK, so getting Dallas +3.5 is a tremendous value.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot like the Chiefs are 9-28 SU & 11-25-1 ATS.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Chiefs are 0-5 SU in their last five road games against Dallas.  Dak Prescott is 5-0 SU in his last five home games in an early week spot winning by 11.2 points per game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Chiefs/Cowboys UNDER 52.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They go on long, methodical drives on offense and are one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They also have one of the best defenses in the league.

The Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 49 or fewer combined points in all six games.  This total of 52.5 is very high for a game involving the Chiefs.  They even played some high-powered offenses in the Lions, Bills and Colts during this 6-0 UNDER run.

The Cowboys will have one of the best defenses in the NFL moving forward.  got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

In their first game with everyone back plus the addition of Williams, they held the Raiders to 236 total yards including just 27 rushing.  Last week, they held the Eagles to 21 points and 339 total yards, including just 63 rushing.  These Cowboys totals were justified being so high in the first half of the season when they had no defense, but this total of 52.5 is too high for a game involving these two elite defenses now.  

The Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game and 6th in total defense at 293 yards per game.  Kansas City will be without two key players on offense RG Trey Smith and TE Noah Gray.  The Cowboys will be without LT Tyler Guyton this week.  The Chiefs do get RB Isaiah Pacheco back, which will give them more confidence to try and run the ball more, which will also benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Packers/Lions FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +3

The Packers are the better, healthier team with the much better defense.  This line suggest the Lions are the better team, but that's just not the case right now.  I'll gladly take the value and the full 3 points with the road underdog Packers.  Matt LaFleur is 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more as the head coach of the Packers.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Lions are in this dreadful spot off a 34-27 (OT) home win over the New York Giants as 14-point favorites.  They needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT.

Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now and was on the field for 76 plays against the Giants.  FS Kerby Joseph, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  CB Terrion Arnold and DE Marcus Davenport are questionable.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright, WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Three other starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, RG Tate Ratledge and RT Penei Sewell.  What a mess.

The Packers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft, WR Jayden Reed and backup WR Savion Williams.  WR Matthew Golden is questionable after sitting out last week, so there's a good chance he returns this week.  RB Josh Jacobs returns to form a great 1-2 punch with Emanuel Wilson, who rushed for for 107 yards and 2 TD in Jacobs' absence in a 23-6 win over the Vikings last week.

The Packers may have the best defense in the NFL right now.  They were only on the field for 39 plays last week and held the Vikings to just 145 total yards.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 4th in total defense at 278.7 yards per game.  They are also 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.

The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 in the season opener while holding Detroit to 246 total yards.  That was before they traded for Micah Parsons, and their defense has been even better with him since.  Parsons and company will wreak havok in the opposing backfield up against this banged-up Detroit offensive line and make life tough on Jared Goff once again.  The Packers have held eight of 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and only one team has scored more than 25 against them all season.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/UMass OVER 44.5

UMass is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Minutemen are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 48 or more combined points in all five, and 48 or more combined points in six straight coming into this one.  This total of 44.5 is very low for a game involving UMass.

The Minutemen rank 134th in scoring defense at 37.6 points per game and dead last (136th) in total defense at 440.9 yards per game.  Ohio took it easy on them last week only attempting 8 passes and running 57 times for 363 yards and still scored 42 points.  Northern Illinois and Akron both have terrible offenses, and they scored 45 and 44 points on them, respectively.  Kent State put up 42 points on them as well.

Bowling Green is known for having a bad offense this season, but even the Falcons will find plenty of success against this hapless UMass defense.  I also like the fact that this will be the final game for both teams and both won't be going to a bowl game.  That means the entire playbook is wide open and both offenses will have success.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Panthers/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are back to near full strength on offense and have one of the best offenses in the league when that's the case.  But their defense is as injured as any defense in the NFL right now and they just cannot stop anyone.  That forces them to try and win shootouts week after week.

The 49ers are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  That includes 63, 68 and 58 points in their last three games coming into this one.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 49ers right now.

Brock Purdy returned to lead the 49ers to a 41-22 win at Arizona last week.  Purdy went 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and 3 TD win the win.  He found George Kittle 6 times for 67 yards and 2 TD.  Kittle recently returned from injury, and now Rickey Pearsall is back after making his return last week.  He should get targeted much more this week.

It was a miracle the 49ers only gave up 22 points to the Cardinals when you consider they allowed 488 total yards.  Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 452 passing yards despite not having all of his top weapons at receiver, including Marvin Harrison Jr.  This came a week after allowing 42 points and 401 total yards to the Rams.

The 49ers have been lost without their two leaders on defense in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner.  The injuries keep piling up as DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson are both on IR, DE Beal Jr. and LB Bethune are both out, and LB Gifford is questionable.  The Panthers should be able to get whatever they want both on the ground and through the air against this 49ers mash unit.

Bryce Young led the Panthers to a 30-27 (OT) comeback win in Atlanta from 14 points down last week.  It was the best game of his career as he went 31-of-45 passing for 448 yards and 3 TD in the win.  With WR's McMillian, Legette and Coker and RB's Dowdle and Hubbard, the Panthers have some of the most underrated playmakers in the league.  They are also fully healthy on offense with the exception of C Cade Mayes, but backup C Austin Corbett has plenty of experience starting in his place.

The Panthers have injury concerns of their own on defense with both starting LB's Rozeboom and Wallace out for this game.  Those are huge losses as Rozebook has 91 tackles while Wallace has 52 tackles and 2 sacks.  You know Kyle Shanahan will scheme it up to exploit those weaknesses in the middle of this Carolina defense.

The Panthers are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  So this total of 47.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both offenses will have their way with these two defenses Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints ML +115

Note: I released this play early in the week when the Saints were underdogs.  I would lay up to -150 with the Saints.

The spot really favors the Saints.  They are coming off their bye week and have a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore who will get the most out of this bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with only two starters listed as questionable this week, so they come out of the bye week healthy, rested and ready to go.

Look for them to pick up where they left off after a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers going into their bye.  That was a more dominant result than the final score showed.  The Saints outgained the Panthers 388 to 175, or by 213 total yards.  Tyler Shough went 19-of-27 passing for 282 yards and 2 TD in the win and looks to be an upgrade from Spencer Rattler.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Falcons.  They have lost five straight with the last three being gut-wrenching losses after getting blowing out by the 49ers and Dolphins.  Three weeks ago they lost by 1 at New England after a missed XP, two weeks ago they lost in OT by 6 to the Colts in London, and last week they lost by 3 in OT after blowing a 14-point lead to the Panthers.  

The Falcons now sit at 3-7 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention and they know it.  They especially know it now that QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.  They completed folded after he left the game and was replaced by Kirk Cousins last week against the Panthers.  Making matters worse, they will also be without their best receiver in Drake London (60 receptions, 810 yards, 6 TD) this week.

The Falcons injuries don't stop there.  They are without two starting offensive linemen and another two starters are questionable.  They have nine defenders on IR or out and LB Leonard Floyd is questionable.  They have been pitiful on both sides of the ball, especially defensively during this stretch.  And their offense has been atrocious with Cousins at QB.

We saw what Cousins could do with a full week of prep already, losing 34-10 at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins.  He is absolutely washed.  He is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 52 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.  The defense is just as big of a concern, allowing 29.8 points per game in their last four games.  They just allowed 486 total yards to the Panthers last week after giving up 519 yards to the Colts in London.  All this travel and all these OT losses will take their toll this week.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU at home in his career against NFC East opponents.  That includes 6-1 SU against the Philadelphia Eagles.  He does not lose at home, and he has this Cowboys offense rolling this season and ready to take down the Eagles this week.

But the difference for the Cowboys is their defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and I think the matchup is a great one for them because they should have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

If anyone can stop the tush push the Eagles love to run, it's the Cowboys.  This Philadelphia team has been getting away with murder this season winning almost every close game.  The Eagles are overrated due to their 8-2 record, and they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Cowboys.  While the Eagles have a great defense, their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and will get shut down here.

The Cowboys rank 2nd in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game, 6th at 6.0 yards per play and 9th at 4.7 yards per carry.  The Eagles rank 16th scoring 23.4 points per game, 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, 24th at 5.3 yards per play and 25th at 3.9 yards per carry.  

Their offense is broken, and now they will be without their most important offensive lineman in LT Lane Johnson for this game.  Their numbers with him in and out of the lineup are staggering.  The Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn't over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games.  Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores.  And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home.  But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season.  They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games.  The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable.  The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week.  That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points.  That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it.  His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense.  It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week.  DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out.  After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week.  Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since.  The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note: I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs.  Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey.  The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco.  Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it.  The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play.  The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one.  Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores.  Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week.  And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet.  They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday.  You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry.  So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.  This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later.  Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS.  The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.  They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts.  They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts.  This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7.  They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss.  I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling.  The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy.  Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs.  I think they put their best foot forward as a result.  The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season.  They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country.  Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury.  I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience.  He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB.  And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas.  Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far.  Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week.  I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA.  Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo.  It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense.  The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game.  They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense.  I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST.  With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had.  I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King.  He is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores.  I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment.  He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off.  This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish.  That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time.  Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game.  That leaves his status for this game very much in question.  Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively.  But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.  

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle.  They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late.  I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.  

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job.  They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs.  They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty.  That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17.  But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome.  They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it.  The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn.  And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week.  Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games.  I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds.  They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible.  New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2.  If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe.  Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer.  When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6.  And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak.  They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here.  Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston.  The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF.  That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards.  They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times.  You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can.  So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up.  We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road.  They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season.  I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD.  This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup.  The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night.  It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in.  It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team.  Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction.  The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple.  They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job.  They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week.  They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers.  And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago.  They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD.  Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD).  Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season.  The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win.  They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently.  They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss.  Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together.  It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game.  More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play.  The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week.  S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective.  Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine.  They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them.  This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game.  But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks.  The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores.  He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game.  This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long.  Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way.  Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt.  Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.  

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win.  That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico.  In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up.  I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win.  The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State.  They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated.  They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game.  I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game.  Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season.  He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.  

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD.  This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close.  This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday.  That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff.  They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it.  They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses.  They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1.  They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship.  I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury.  Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable.  Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech.  But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson.  They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest.  I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye.  They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense.  Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch.  He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.  

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons.  Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Hawaii/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Hawaii Warriors are rolling since Las Vegas HS legend QB Micah Alejado got healthy.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall scoring 39.0 points per game in those five games with Alejado throwing at least 3 TD passes in all five.  That includes a 38-6 home win over San Diego State as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  They even called off the dogs in the 4th quarter against the the Aztecs, who have one of the best defenses in the country and sit alone in 1st place in the Mountain West.

Now the Warriors return from their bye week refreshed and ready to make a run at the MWC title themselves.  They are in a four-way tie for 2nd place with a real shot to make the title game.  You can bet Alejado will have a ton of friends and family in attendance in his home town of Las Vegas, and this will be a very pro Hawaii crowd because of it.

UNLV is one of the biggest frauds in the country.  The Rebels are 8-2 this season against the 115th schedule.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games with five wins by 7 points or fewer.  That includes their 29-26 (OT) home win over Utah State last week where they were very fortunate to win thanks to three missed field goals and a missed extra point by the Aggies.

Now the Rebels will be on a short week and playing their 4th consecutive game off an OT game.  They are at a big rest disadvantage here facing a Hawaii team off a bye.  No question the Warriors are the better team in this matchup when you look at the numbers as well, and the wrong team is favored.  Hawaii allows 349.1 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season, while UNLV allows 448.6 yards per game and 6.6 per play.  I'll gladly back the better, more rested team as an underdog in this one.  Bet Hawaii Friday.

20* Bills/Texans AFC No-Brainer on Houston +6

I'll gladly take 6 points with the best defense in the NFL at home against anyone.  The Texans rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 258.1 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play.  They are pretty much 1st or 2nd in every major defensive statistic this season.

That's why they can get away with having backup QB Davis Mills.  I think Mills is one of the best backups in the NFL, and it's not that much of a downgrade from CJ Stroud to him, especially with how healthy everyone else is around him right now.  Mills is completng 60% of his passes for 726 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, mostly from the last two weeks.  Hew threw for 293 yards against the Jaguars and 274 yards against the Titans the last two weeks.

The Texans are fully healthy outside of Stroud and NB Jalen Pitre.  That makes them a dangerous team right now.  The Bills are far from full strength, which makes them vulnerable and explains how poorly they have played on the road this season.  The Bills are without TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel and WR Mecole Hardman on offense.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, SS Taylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin on defense.

Injuries along the defensive line are a big reason the Bills rank 31st in rushing defense allowing 153.0 yards per game and 31st at 5.4 yards per carry allowed.  The Texans know they can get what they want on the ground with Woody Marks and company, which will take a lot of pressure off of Mills having to do it all with his arm.

Two of the Bills worst performances came in two of their last three road games.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta and 30-13 at Miami.  Josh Allen isn't nearly as good on the road, and he had one of the worst games of his career the last time he faced Houston on the road.  Last season, Allen went 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 road loss to the Texans.  Houston outgained Buffalo 425 to 276 in that contest, or by 149 total yards.

In their last two games with Mills at QB, they outgained the Jaguars 412 to 213, or by 199 total yards.  They outgained the Titans 315 to 229, or by 86 yards.  That was a Titans team coming off a bye and getting several key players back as well as it was a tricky spot.  The Texans need wins like blood sitting at 5-5 on the season and need this win more than the Bills do.  They haven't lost at home by more than 3 points all season, and they have just one home loss by more than 5 points over the last two seasons combined.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +9.5

Kent State kept its bowl hopes alive with a 42-35 (OT) home win over Akron last week.  The Golden Flashes sit at 4-6 on the season with a real shot to make a bowl if they win this game tonight.  They have lowly Northern Illinois on deck next week.

It's time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and in contention for the MAC Championship Game now.  The three wins came against Bowling Green, UMass and Buffalo, three of the worst teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan is just 1-4 SU in its last five road games with the lone win coming against Bowling Green who was without its starting QB.  They lost by 6 at Akron for a common opponent.  Kent State is 3-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming by 3 points.

Kent State QB Dru DeShields is grossly underrated.  He has a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He went 17-of-25 for 317 yards against Akron last time out.  I think he'll have what it takes to keep this game competitive against Central Michigan with the Golden Flashes having a shot to pull off the upset in the 4th quarter.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.

20* Eagles/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season.  They predictably got off to a slow start with a bunch of narrow wins, and it eventually caught up to them.  But after an upset loss to the Giants, the Eagles have turned a corner.

They bounced back with a 28-22 win at Minnesota behind a breakout passing game from Jalen Hurts, who completed 19-of-23 passes for 326 yards and 3 TD.  They avenged that loss to New York with a 38-20 win over the Giants in the rematch.  This time, they got their running game going rushing for 276 yards.  Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries while Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on 9 carries.

Now the Eagles are coming off their bye week and primed for a big effort against the Packers.  The Eagles are about as healthy as they have been all season.  Their defense is basically fully healthy now with the return of LB Nolan Smith from IR.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL when they are as healthy as they are right now.  All of their playmakers are healthy on offense, and the only loss there is C Cam Jurgens.

The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.  That's the same Panthers team that just lost 17-7 at home to the Saints this week.  They also struggled to put away Arizona by 4, Cincinnati by 9 and needed a big 2H comeback to beat the Steelers.  Before that, they tied the Cowboys and lost outright to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites.

This will be the Packers' toughest test of the season against an Eagles team that eliminated them in the playoffs with a 22-10 victory last year.  We saw the Eagles handle this situation well twice already, beating the Chiefs and Rams this season, two teams they also knocked out of the playoffs last year.  I think they enjoy their dominance of these teams and really get up for these games.

The Packers have a ton of injury questions coming into this one.  On offense, WR Matthew Golden, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Savion Williams and RT Zach Tom are all questionable.  They were already without WR Jayden Reed, and now TE Tucker Kraft suffered a season-ending injury against the Panthers last week.  They could not afford to lose Kraft, who has easily been their most productive player in the passing game consistently bailing out the offense with his ability to run after the catch.  Kraft has 32 receptions for a team-high 489 yards and 6 TD up to this point.  They could not afford to lose him, and I don't think they can beat the Eagles without him.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  Both teams are coming off misleading results that have made this line lower than it should be.  The Chargers should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Steelers, and this is my favorite play of the entire season on the Sunday Night Football Stage as a result.

The Steelers are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts gift-wrapped them that win by committing 6 turnovers, yet it was still a one-score game.  The Colts outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result and one of those games where just everything goes the Steelers' way.  It happened earlier this season when the Patriots committed 5 turnovers against them in a one-score game.

It was criminal that the Chargers didn't cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Titans last week in a 27-20 win.  The Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return TD and didn't score a single TD on offense.  The Chargers outgained the Titans 343 to 206, or by 137 total yards.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Chargers losing Joe Alt to a season-ending injury.  But not enough is being made of the fact that the Chargers traded for Trevor Penning of the Saints to take his place.  That was a great coup and one that will pay big dividends for them moving forward.  I'm also not that concerned about the loss of RT Bobby Hart because Trey Pipkins III is back healthy.  The Chargers are going to be just fine along the offensive line, and Herbert's mobility is a big weapon to counter it.

The numbers show the Chargers are by far the superior team.  The Chargers are 5th in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play while also ranking 6th in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  The Chargers are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game and 22nd at 5.4 yards per play.  They rank 30th in total defense at 383.8 yards per game and 25th at 5.8 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 95 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play on the season.  The Chargers are the much superior team and it will show on the field Sunday night.  

Aaron Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in his last seven primetime games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as an underdog.  Justin Herbert is 5-0 ATS in his last five primetime games and 16-9 ATS overall, including 10-3 SU as a favorite in primetime games.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8

I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week.  The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.  Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat.  The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.

And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week.  Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.

The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.

The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow.  That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable.  The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week.  They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win.  The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.

Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go.  This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart.  The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  

Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want.  Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints.  They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd.  They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late.  They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch.  They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense.  They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense.  Their front seven in particular is in shambles.  The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.

The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants.  They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.

The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky.  One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.

The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints.  You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers.  They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.

The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay.  Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.  

The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5

The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games.  Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week.  But these aren't your old Panthers.

Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.  The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late.  Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular.  They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend.  They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.

Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion.  He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning.  The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week.  They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.

The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB.  He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard.  This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.

The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game.  They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points.  They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf.  Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses.  Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.

Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams.  They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays.  Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs.  The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it.  The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state.  I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.

Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye.  They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions.  Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.

The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week.  It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions.  JJ McCarthy is not their savior.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win.  McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.

Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator.  The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz.  They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm.  The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week.  Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens.  The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.