20* Bills/Rams MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles -2.5

The Rams having a 2-2 record at .500 this season has them grossly undervalued.  They came into the season as Super Bowl favorites, and there's nothing I've seen in the number that would suggest they shouldn't still be the favorite despite the 2-2 record.  They are an elite team, and it will show tonight against a perceived elite team in the Bills that aren't as good as their 3-1 record.

The Rams have outgained their last three opponents by 767 net yards, which is the 5th-highest mark in NFL history.  They rank 1st in total defense at 247.5 yards per game and 1st at 4.3 yard per play allowed.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 175.5 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play on the season, which are the best marks in the NFL.  They are elite, no question about it.

They have been doing this despite being without Puka Nacua for two games and Aaron Donald for two games, plus Myles Garrett for three games.  They have both Nacua and Donald back healthy this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and in their current state the best team in the NFL in my opinion.

The Bills have an elite offense with Josh Allen.  But they are without Josh Palmer and Tyrell Shavers, and fellow WR DJ Moore is questionable to play tonight.  Allen was noticeably limping after the 29-26 home loss to the Patriots last week in which they were outgained by 55 yards.  They were held to their fewer rushing yards (91) in two years by the Patriots, who were without several key defenders.  Allen didn't want to run like he usually does.  They only outgained the Chargers by 2 yards the week prior and were life and death with them, and the Chargers are 0-5 this season.

But the biggest concern for the Bills is their defense, which allowed 405 total yards to a Patriots team that was without three of their top four receivers.  Drake Maye had been terrible leading up to that game.  This is a bad, bad Bills defense and it's by far the worst unit on the field in this game.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.  The Rams will be able to name their number on this Buffalo defense, which also allowed 31 points to Houston, 31 to Detroit and then 29 to New England.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Bills/Rams MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 53.5

The Buffalo Bills are a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense but one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They have gone 3-1 OVER in all games this season going for 67 combined points with the Texans, 72 with the Lions and 55 with the Patriots.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving the Bills right now.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.8 points per game and 2nd at 6.7 yards per play.  But they rank 25th in scoring defense allowing 26.8 points per game and 25th in total defense at 372.2 yards per game.  Most concerning was giving up 29 points and 405 total yards to the Patriots last week, who were without three of their top four receivers.  But they also allowed 31 points to the Texans and 31 to the Lions.

The Rams will be far and away the best offense they have faced this season.  The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yard per play.  The Rams now have Puka Nacua back on offense and are fully healthy.  They are going to hang a big number on this suspect Bills defense to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.

The Rams have benefited defensively from getting to face three poor offenses in the Eagles, the Broncos and the Giants the last three week.  That was the game the Giants lost Jaxson Dart early and had to go with Jameis Winston the rest of the way.  The Eagles were without all of their top playmakers including Smith and Barkley, and the Broncos just look broken offensively but still scored 30 points on the Rams.  This Buffalo offense is the best unit the Rams will have faced since allowing 27 points to the 49ers.

The Rams will easily get into the 30's in this game and I wouldn't be surprised if they get into the 40's.  The Bills will get into the upper-20's if not the 30's as well.  The last time these teams played the Rams won 44-42 at home in 2024 for 86 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Ravens/Falcons NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5

Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough.  Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

The Falcons will continue to thrive offensively at home this week against a mediocre Baltimore defense that is allowing 24.0 points per game this season.  The Ravens allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil two weeks ago and it should have been more as the Cowboys failed from the 1-yard line at the end.  And they are without arguably their most important defensive player in LB Trey Hendrickson, their best pass rusher who will be out again this week.

This total is only being set this low because Lamar Jackson is out for the Ravens, otherwise this total would be in the 50's.  That's a big adjustment down for backup QB Tyler Huntley, who has proven he can lead this offense for years.  I like the fact that WR Zay Flowers is back healthy, and he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL.  Short passes to him can turn into explosives in a hurry and they will.  The Ravens are scoring 29.0 points per game, averaging 395.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.

This Atlanta defense has held up reasonably well despite some injuries, but the injuries continue to pile up and have gotten even worse this week.  They are allowing 23.0 points per game this season.  But they lost arguably their best pass rusher in LB Da'Darius Smith to a concussion last week and he has been ruled out.  They are without their best CB in AJ Terrell.  Fellow starting LB's Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are questionable for this one as well.  

I expect the Falcons to get into the 30's and for the Ravens to be able to do enough against this banged up Atlanta D to easily get the OVER 43.5 here, which is just below a big key number of 44.  This game will be played on a fast track indoors in Atlanta, too.  Kevin Stefanski is 6-0 OVER in primetime games over the last four seasons, going over the total by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3

I grabbed the Falcons +3 as soon as the lines came out after they beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  I expected them to take money and for Lamar Jackson to eventually be ruled out, and that's precisely what happened.  This is an example of why it's great to have a long-term package because you get the plays as soon as I release them.  I would still play the Falcons up to -3 tonight.

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers two weeks ago in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I stated the same thing and backed them again at +3 against the Saints, and they proceeded to deliver with a 45-24 victory.  I think I was right on this call and it has proven to be the case, and I'm riding it again this week.

Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

This Atlanta defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich lost his wife in the offseason and this defense has rallied around him.  Despite some injuries, the Falcons have had one of the best pressure rates in the NFL.  Both Tyler Shough and Jordan Love were under duress for the majority of the games.

The Ravens will go with backup QB Tyler Huntley, and the drop off from Lamar Jackson to him is one of the biggest in the NFL.  He is capable of managing an offense, but the Ravens will be much less explosive than they have been.  Also, they are down to a 3rd-string center due to injuries, which is why they traded with the Eagles for a center last week, but Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol and will not play.  

The Ravens will also be without their best pass rusher on defense in LB Trey Hendrickson, who they gave a pile of money in the offseason.  Their defense has been sub-par this season allowing 24.0 points per game.  They allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil, and the Falcons have a similarly explosive offense.  I'm not worried about the Falcons being on a short week after playing on MNF because they played the Thursday prior and had 3 extra days off as a result.  Plus, they blew out their last two opponents and were able to rest starters late.  

The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in primetime as a head coach since 2021.  The Ravens are 82-37 SU with Lamar Jackson, and 10-17 SU with all other QB's starting in his career.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 53.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets and 58 with the Panthers, topping this 53.5-point total every week.

The Lions are fully health on offense and thriving.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.8 points per game, 6th in total offense at 389.2 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play.  And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 31.8 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 423.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without five key players in the secondary in Branch, Joseph, Harper, Maddox and Ya-Sin and teams have been able to throw all over them.

Jacoby Brissett and this Arizona offense have shown they can keep up in a shootout.  They did so the last two weeks with a 36-30 loss to the 49ers that saw 66 combined points, and a 36-24 loss to the Giants that saw 60 combined points.  Both games were outdoors, too.  Now Brissett and company are back in a dome and he will have his full compliment of weapons available outside the mystery of Marvin Harrison Jr, who has been unproductive this season anyway.  They might be better off getting the distraction that comes with him off the field.

This Arizona defense is trash again this season.  The Cardinals rank 29th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game, 24th at 351.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  They have some key injuries in the secondary without CB Will Johnson and S Andrew Wingard, plus DT Walter Nolen is questionable.  They have allowed 30-plus points in three consecutive weeks with two of those coming against backup QB's in Drew Lock of the Seahawks and Jameis Winson of the Giants.  I expect them to give up 30-plus again to the Lions, but to also be able to keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers ML -135

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a tough loss to Cleveland last Thursday on the road.  Sadly, they always lose to the Browns on the road, and the Browns are certainly better than most give them credit for.  But now the Steelers are motivated off that loss, plus on extra rest after playing last Thursday which has given them more time to get healthy.

The Colts are traveling back from London so it will be a short week for them.  They beat the Commanders 30-13 in one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Commanders lost QB Marcus Mariota in that game or it would have been a different story, instead having to turn to a rookie.  Still, the Commanders outgained the Colts by 60 yards and 1.4 yards per play for the game.  The Colts were held to a putrid 257 yards and 4.0 yards per play.

In fact, the Colts are very close to being 0-4 instead of 2-2.  They escaped with a last-second home win over the Texans the week prior, and they benefited from Washington being down to a 3rd-string QB.  In their two losses, they were dominated getting outgained by 196 yards by the Chiefs and 255 yards by the Ravens.  They have some of the worst numbers in the NFL overall.

The Colts are broken offensively averaging just 284.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They are poor defensively, allowing 392.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 108 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  Daniel Jones is a shell of his former self coming back from injury not using his legs at all with just 21 rushing yards on the season.  His weapons leave a lot to be desired without Alec Pierce, Ashton Dullin and Darius Slayton due to injury, while Keenan Allen is playing through injury.  The defense is without DE Key, LB Carlies and CB Ward is questionable.  CB Gardner has been one of the worst at his position in the league after the blockbuster trade for him last season.

The Steelers are 2-0 at home this season beating the Bengals and Falcons.  In their last two games, their offense has really started to show what it is capable of and will likely be the best unit on the field.  They had 30 points, 411 yards and 7.2 yards per play against the Bengals and 24 points, 361 yards and 6.1 yards per play agains the Browns.  This is a usual solid Pittsburgh defense holding opponents to 21.8 points per game on the season.

The Steelers are 17-1 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Colts.  The only QB to win in Pittsburgh was Peyton Manning.  McCarthy and Rodgers as a duo are 44-21-3 ATS at home since 2010.  Daniel Jones is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in his career against the Steelers.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Dolphins UNDER 44

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts UNDER team. They have the worst offense in the NFL scoring just 11.5 points per game.  But their defense is an underrated unit that plays as hard as anyone.  They held the Chiefs to 24 points two weeks ago and the Vikings to 15 points last week.  I think they can hold the Bengals in check enough to keep this UNDER the total.

The Bengals have struggled on offense this season and were just held to 17 points by the Jaguars last week.  A big reason for the struggles was a concussion suffered by Jamar Chase, and then fellow WR Tee Higgins leaving late with an adductor injury.  Both are expected to play today but will likely be limited.  Fellow WR Colbie Young is questionable, and WR Andrei Iosivas is on IR.  Burrow is seriously lacking weapons heading into this one.

But why I'm excited about the Bengals this season is the fact that it looks like they have their best defense in years with the upgrades they made in the offseason, including bringing in DT Dexter Lawrence.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game through four games.  I expect them to come close to shutting out the Dolphins.

The Malik Willis contract looks terrible now, but in his defense he has no weapons to work with.  The Dolphins lost their star RB Achane a few weeks ago to a season-ending injury.  Now their best WR in Caleb Douglas is out this week.  The Dolphins have to try and go more ball control offense and eat up the playclock to be competitive, which is something defensive-minded head coach Jeff Hafley is familiar with.  

It kept them competitive in a 24-10 loss and 34 combined points with the Chiefs two weeks ago, and in a 15-10 loss and 25 combined points with the Vikings last week.  It will be a similar script this week against the Bengals, who will likely be in for more of a battle than they bargained for with their limitations on offense right now due to injury.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on LSU -7.5

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

But the best unit on the field may just bet this LSU defense, which allows 15.2 points per game, 220.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  I think the fact that LSU lost at Ole Miss has them undervalued.  That was the National Championship Game for Ole Miss as they wanted revenge.  How LSU has responded since has been very telling.

LSU went on to beat Texas A&M 35-6 at home the next week handing the Aggies their worst loss of the season.  And last week they crushed McNeese State 63-14.  That game allowed their starters to rest in the 2H and stay fresh for this game against Kentucky this week.  Also, LSU needs style points to try and make the 12-team playoff from here on out, which works in our favor here.

Kentucky is an extremely tired team that won't have much left in the tank for LSU.  After a 45-17 home loss to Alabama, the Wildcats went on the road and upset Texas A&M 31-21 to give them a common opponent.  LSU outgained Texas A&M by 309 yards while Kentucky was actually outgained by Texas A&M by 15 yards.

Two weeks ago Kentucky came out flat and only led South Alabama 24-21 at halftime.  They outscored them 21-0 in the 2H in a misleading 24-point win.  South Alabama was also playing with a backup QB that game.  And last week, Kentucky escaped with a 35-34 (OT) win at South Carolina despite getting outgained by 64 yards.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for LSU this week.

Alabama crushed Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington.  Alabama is easily a Top 5 team in the country, and I really think LSU isn't far behind, and as the season plays out they could overtake Alabama.  I think we see a similar beat down here with LSU winning by double-digits at minimum.

There will be some weather in this game so the team that runs the football better will have the most success.  That will clearly be LSU.  Dual-threat QB Sam Leavitt has rushed for 220 yards and 6 TD this season.  He helps lead a LSU rushing attack that averages 237.8 rushing yards per game this season.  LSU's defense is elite against the run, allowing just 58.6 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  Kentucky allowed 232 rushing yards to South Carolina, 187 to Texas A&M and 155 to Alabama.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 52

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

Kentucky has an offensive-minded head coach this season in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  Stein has the Wildcats averaging 34.6 points per game, 416.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule to this point.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kentucky's five games this season with 52 or more combined points in all five games.  This total of 52 is pretty short for a game involving Kentucky.

It's also short for a game involving LSU, which is 3-2 OVER in all games this season with 58 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was a 35-6 home win over Texas A&M in which they took their foot off the gas late in a scoreless 4th quarter.  Both offenses will keep coming for four quarters in this one and it should easily top this 52-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +14

Kent State has played well outside of blowout losses to South Carolina and Ohio State, their two non-covers this season.  They beat Wofford 36-15 as 10.5-point favorites, beat Ball State 26-13 as 3-point favorites and lost to Ohio 13-10 as 3.5-point dogs.  They outgained Wofford by 275 yards, outgained Ball State by 144 yards and outgained Ohio by 13 yards despite the loss.

Now they face another MAC team they can be competitive with in Western Michigan, and they shouldn't be catching 14 points here.  The Broncos have been grossly overvalued since nearly upsetting Michigan in Week 1.  They only beat Rice by 7 as 8.5-point road favorites, lost by 25 to Boise State as only 7.5-point dogs and only beat Buffalo by 3 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a bad, bad Buffalo team that nearly lost outright to Robert Morris as 27.5-point favorites in a 3-point win the previous week.  Buffalo also nearly lost to Albany in a 4-point win as 18.5-point favorites.

Kent State has one of the best QB's in the MAC in Dru DeShields.  He has thrown for 752 yards while also rushing for 183 yards and 3 TD despite the tough schedule.  He will keep the Golden Flashes in this game for four quarters.  WMU doesn't have a good enough offense to be laying this many points.  The Broncos are averaging just 23.2 points per game, 303.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.

What will help keep Kent State competitive is the fact that both of these teams play at a snail's pace too, so there will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Broncos to pull away. Western Michigan ranks 131st out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.9 seconds.  Kent State ranks 117th snapping it every 29.3 seconds.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Duke/Georgia Tech UNDER 48.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48.5 ticket between Duke and Georgia Tech.  There is an 80% chance of rain throughout and 15-20 MPH sustained winds.  That's going to make it very difficult to pass the ball and for both kicking games.  This will be a low-scoring, defensive battle as a result.

Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, too.  Manny Diaz has been winning at Duke with defense.  And this Duke defense has been dynamite this season, allowing just 11.0 points per game, 261.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech wants to run the ball, and Duke won't allow it giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry this season.

The loss of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida has been felt, as has the loss of QB Haynes King.  The Yellow Jackets are only scoring 27.0 points per game, averaging 370 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are only rushing for 126.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  Nothing will come easy for them against Duke.

The Yellow Jackets have a respectable defense allowing 26.0 points per game and 5.5 per play.  They allow 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.  Duke averages 42 rush attempts per game compared by 27 pass attempts.  The Blue Devils want to run the ball too, so the clock will be constantly moving, especially given the weather conditions.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Duke and Georgia Tech.  We've seen 45 or fewer combined points in each of the last three meetings, and that's even with one OT game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Appalachian State -9.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers look like one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at NC State by 10 as 12.5-point dogs.  Their lone non-cover came in a 26-21 win over Charlotte as 16.5-point favorites, which was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They outgained Charlotte by 188 yards in that game and the 49ers had a couple late scores to get in the back door.

Old Dominion is clearly much worse off without QB Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin and has revived the Badgers this season.  The Monarchs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FCS Norfolk State.  They lost by 23 at Virginia Tech and were upset at home by East Carolina.

But it's the last two games that are the most concerning for ODU.  They lost by 26 at home to James Madison while being held to just 247 total yards.  Their 42-10 loss at Georgia State as only 2.5-point dogs last week was even more concerning.  They were held to 146 total yards by a bad Georgia State defense and they allowed 470 total yards, getting outgained by a whopping 324 total yards.

It's a ODU defense that is wearing down by being on the field so much.  And now the Monarchs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to start the season and they are out of gas.  Meanwhile, App State is coming off a bye week and will be the much fresher team.  I love the spot for the Mountaineers, who should have no problem winning this game by double-digits.  Bet Appalachian State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Carolina/Florida UNDER 62

This total has been inflated due to both teams being dead nuts OVER teams up to this point.  The Gamecocks have gone 4-1 OVER while the Gators have gone 4-1 OVER as well.  But this is now the highest total for any South Carolina game this season, and the 2nd-highest total for any Florida game.

But a big reason I'm on this UNDER is the weather, which will aid us in cashing.  There's a heavy chance of rain and there will certainly be wind in this game due to the hurricane.  That will make it difficult for both offenses to throw the ball and will hamper the kicking game.

These are two run-heavy offenses as it is which will keep the clock moving.  Florida averages 40 rush attempts compared to 28 pass attempts per game.  South Carolina averages 39 rush attempts compared to 34 pass attempts.  And both defenses have been solid against the run.

South Carolina allows just 100.4 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.  The Gamecocks are expected to get back their best their best defensive player in DE Dylan Stewart from suspension for this game as well to make them even more formidable.  Florida is holding its opponents to 126.4 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

These are two teams coming off bad losses with South Carolina getting upset by Kentucky at home, and Florida getting blown out by Missouri on the road.  I think the intensity from both teams will come from the defenses after underwhelming performances.  And I think both defenses are a lot better than they showed last week, and that will play out this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +3.5

I love the spot for West Virginia Saturday.  The Mountaineers are coming off consecutive Big 12 losses to open the season to Oklahoma State at home and Iowa State on the road.  They actually led Oklahoma State by 3 before giving up the final 20 points in that game in the final 18 minutes.  They lost a back and forth shootout by 3 on the road to the underrated Cyclones.

But this is more of a play against Arizona as anything.  The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season and I just think they are being overrated after a 34-7 home win over Cincinnati, taking advantage of the first true road game for the Bearcats last week.  They barely beat Washington State by 10, failed to cover against Northern Illinois and Northern Arizona at home, and lost against by far the best team they've faced this season in BYU by 11.

Now Arizona will be traveling out East for the first time this season for a 12:00 EST start time in Morgantown, which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for them.  They aren't used to playing this early, and after a late-night game last Saturday against Cincinnati at home last week they have even less time to recover.

And they need to recover given all the injuries they have already suffered on offense.  They are going to be without their three best WR's, their top TD, and two starters along the offensive line this week.  They are without WR's Spivey (22 receptions, 314 yards), Richardson (15, 170) and Hunter (13, 155).  Their defense has been solid, but keep in mind they lost five NFL draft picks in the back seven this offseason and I just don't think they have faced many good offenses that can take advantage.

West Virginia is an elite offensive team that will take advantage.  The Mountaineers are averaging 37.4 points per game, 472 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They also rank 5th in the country in tempo, snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  That up-tempo offense will test the tired legs of Arizona, and I expect the Mountaineers to take control in the 2H.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 52

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last three games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State and 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia.  They are in a groove, and now will be even sharper offensively coming out of their bye week.  Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 23rd in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.

UCF is coming off two straight unders against two under teams in TCU and Houston who run pro-style, slow offenses.  That has depressed this total enough to provide value with the OVER.  The last time they played an offensive-minded team was Georgia State, when they won 44-30 for 74 combined points.  They allowed 485 yards to Georgia State, and now this is a big step up in class against Oklahoma State's offense.

The Knights aren't going to get away with playing slow in this game because Oklahoma State is going to score, and UCF is going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  I also think too much is being made of the injury to UCF QB Alonza Barnett.  He wasn't that good when he was healthy, and FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins is better than he gets credit for.  Jenkins is completing 69.7% of his passes in a couple starts thus far.

UCF also had to play three quality defenses in Pitt, TCU and Houston.  Oklahoma State does not have a quality defense.  The Cowboys allowed 31 points to Oregon despite knowing their plays.  They allowed 467 yards to West Virginia, including 335 on the ground.

While there is weather across the country, there won't be in Stillwater Saturday.  Temps will be in the 80's with no precipitation and only light winds for this game.  Both passing offenses will thrive, and this total of 52 is simply too short for a game involving the Cowboys' high-octane offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Texas A&M/Missouri OVER 48

Both Texas A&M and Missouri have been in a lot of blowouts this season that have suppressed scoring late in games.  I think this total is too low as a result, and this will be a competitive game with both offenses needing to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Texas A&M this week.

Missouri has a great offense scoring 37.6 points per game.  That great offense was aided by the addition of Ole Miss transfer, Austin Simmons.  He actually beat out Trinidad Chambliss for the starting job at Ole Miss last year and only lost it due to injury.  Missouri took advantage and nabbed him in the transfer portal.  Simmons has delivered, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.3 per attempt.  The Tigers just hung 45 points and 560 total yards on Florida last week.

No question Texas A&M isn't an elite offensive team which is why this total is as low as it is.  But the Aggies put up 50 points on Missouri State, 48 on Arizona State and 34 on Arkansas.  They were held in check in a 31-21 loss to Kentucky, but that game still saw 52 combined points.  And they were getting blown out 35-6 by LSU entering the 4th quarter and both teams pulled starters in a scoreless 4th.

This is one of the worst Missouri defenses of the Eli Drinkwitz era.  The Tigers lost a ton of talent on defense to the NFL, and they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now to boot.  They allowed 31 points and 499 total yards to Mississippi State two weeks ago.  Florida's offense was asleep at the wheel last week after beating Ole Miss the weak prior, and Missouri took advantage.  Texas A&M will be able to run the ball on them and that will open things up for Marcel Reed in the play-action passing game.

While there will be weather across the country this week, it won't impact this game at all.  Temps will be in the 80's with no wind and no rain, perfect for a shootout.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between Missouri and Texas A&M with 49 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  This total of 48 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +10.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season against an easy schedule of Utah Tech and Arizona at home, as well as Colorado State and TCU on the road.  And they barely covered the spread in all four games, and because they are 4-0 ATS they are overvalued and it's time to 'sell high' on them.

They beat Utah Tech by 56 as 50.5-point favorites.  They beat Arizona by 11 as 6.5-point home favorites, a game in which Arizona lost its best receiver in the 1st quarter.  They only outgained Arizona by 38 yards.  They only beat Colorado State by 18 as 17.5-point favorites, a Colorado State team that is getting blasted by everyone.  And they only beat TCU by 7 as 5.5-point favorites.  They were actually held to 216 yards and 3.5 yards per pay by TCU but found a way to escape with a victory late.

I think BYU is going to have to try and grind this one out, too.  That's because the Cougars will be without their best playmakers in RB LJ Martin, who won the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year award in 2025.  Martin was well on his way again with 344 rushing yards and 3 TD on 7.8 per carry thus far this season.  It's a huge blow to the offense.  The Cougars will also be without one of their best defenders in LB Isaiah Glasker as well.

Iowa State had a tough time tackling Utah and West Virginia the last two weeks.  But those were two explosive, dynamic offenses.  BYU is not that, making this a much better matchup for them.  They are built for physicality defensively and matched up well with Iowa in a 16-13 loss.  Iowa profiles similar to BYU, a big, physical team that likes to grind you out.  Iowa State matches up well with that.

Iowa State fell behind 21-0 but came back and got within one score of Utah before eventually losing 31-17.  Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12.  The Cyclones came back last week and proved they could win a shootout, beating West Virginia 45-42 behind 577 yards of offense and 7.6 per play.  Their offensive coordinator is one of the best in college football that not too many know about in Tyler Roehl.  He is getting the most out of this offense, and head coach Jimmy Rogers and DC Jesse Bobbit are getting the most out of this defense.  It's just what Rogers does, he wins everywhere he goes and gets the most out of his players.

Iowa State will be 'all in' this week getting to face a Top 10 team and also knowing it has a bye on deck next week to rest.  Look for Roehl to open up the entire playbook and give his team the best chance to win.  RB Aidan Flora was the National Offensive Player of the Week with 5 TD's last week including 2 passing.  It just shows how Roehl is so good at scheming things up.

BYU will not be 'all in' this week.  That's because the Cougars have their biggest game of the season on deck next week as they will be hosting Notre Dame.  Coming off the big road win at TCU last week, and with Notre Dame on deck this next week, it would be easy for the Cougars to overlook the Cyclones.  I expect they'll be in for another dog fight this week and more of a fight than they bargained for against a Cyclones team that has proven they will just keep coming.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 30.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.  They just scored 34 points on the Ravens and 34 on the Texans, two of the best defenses in the league.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.0 points per game, 380.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season despite facing three poor offenses in the Giants, Commanders and Texans.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. last week.

Dak Prescott is 30-11 OVER in all home games since 2020, going over the total by an average of 9.3 points per game.  In his career at home, Prescott is 49-26 OVER.  The Cowboys are 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season, and 17-4 OVER since the start of last season.  They went for 48 combined points with the Giants, 57 with Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, 65 with the Ravens and 64 with the Texans in their first four games this season.  This total of 47 is clearly too short for a game involving the Cowboys, which needs totals in the 50's and even those aren't high enough more times than not.

The reason this total is lower is because the Bucs are starting a rookie QB in Jalon Daniels.  But he held his own in his first start, going 19-of-27 passing for 148 yards with one TD and two INT, while also rushing for 55 yards on eight carries in their home loss to the Packers last week.  Daniels will be much more comfortable in his 2nd start, and his dual-threat ability will be key in getting away from these Dallas pass rushers and making big plays down the field.

The Bucs have a fully healthy offensive line and a healthy group of skill players for Daniels to work without outside No. 3 WR Jalen McMillan.  He will be much more comfortable working with these guys for a 2nd week.  And it's not like Baker Mayfield was playing well prior to getting injured.  In fact, he was in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career with a 2-to-2 TD/INT ratio while taking 13 sacks and averaging just 6.4 per attempt.  He was consistently overthrowing wide open receivers down the field.  It's not as big of a drop off to Daniels as most anticipate.

The offense has also played four straight outdoor games with three at home and one in Cincinnati, a 33-27 loss that saw 60 combined points.  And that was back in Week 1 when the Bengals usually struggle offensively out of the gate.  But the other three offenses they faced are three of the worst in the NFL in the Browns, Vikings and Packers.  This Dallas offense is by far the best unit it will have faced this season, and this Dallas defense is also by far the worst unit it will have faced this season.  And it's indoors in perfect conditions for a shootout.  I expect the Cowboys to get into the 30's and the Bucs to get into the 20's in this one to sail OVER this 47-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State +14

I love the spot for Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats are off a bye and have been off since September 26th.  Meanwhile, they take on a tired Liberty team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season and on a short week to boot.  The spot really favors the Bearkats, and I think they have what it takes to keep this game close even if they didn't have the rest advantage.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Bearkats are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  They only lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Trojans by 31 yards.  They only lost by 6 at home to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and outgained them, the same Golden Hurricane team that upset Oklahoma State.  They crushed Nicholls State 59-0 as 21-point favorites.

Perhaps the most impressive performance was going into their bye week when they were going toe-to-toe with Texas Tech for a half.  They only trailed 21-14 at halftime despite two of Texas Tech's TD's coming on Pick 6's.  They eventually lost by 35 as 34.5-point dogs, a brutal beat for Sam Houston State backers.  It was much closer than the final score showed.

It's time to 'sell high' on Liberty after four straight wins and three straight covers.  After losing by 7 at James Madison in the opener, Liberty was life and death with terrible FCS Gardner-Webb as a 28.5-point favorites, winning 24-23.  Then they beat Ball State 51-15 with a backup QB for Ball State.  They then beat Coastal Carolina on the road, and benefited from another QB injury in a 30-14 win at Delaware without their starting QB.  Their luck will run out this week, and they'll be in for more of a fight than they bargained for in this one.

Sam Houston State is actually outgaining its opponents 5.9 to 5.1 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play despite the brutal schedule of Troy, Tulsa and Texas Tech in three of their four games.  Liberty is outgaining opponents 6.3 to 5.0 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play, but the schedule has been much easier for them.

I think Sam Houston State has the better QB in this game with Landyn Locke, who is completing 66.2% of his passes and averaging 8.1 per attempt with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio to boot.  Deshawn Purdie is only completing 60% of his passes and has just 33 rushing yards on 30 attempts, so he's not even a dual-threat for Liberty.  Bet Sam Houston State Thursday.

20* Jax State/Kennesaw State C-USA No-Brainer on Jacksonville State -2.5

I love the spot for Jacksonville State tonight.  The Gamecocks have had this game circled all offseason since losing to Kennesaw State in the C-USA Championship Game last season.  They want revenge, and they will get it in a big way tonight as they have clearly been the better team to this point.

The Gamecocks brought back nine starters from that team that made the title game last season which is a lot for a Group of 6 team.  None more important than QB Caden Creel, who threw for 1,514 yards and 9 TD last season, while also rushing for 1,076 yards and 7 scores as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Leading receiver Deondre Johnson (724 yards, 6 TD) is back, as are five starters and three of the top four tacklers on defense.

The Gamcocks are off to a 3-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road at North Dakota State and at Ohio.  North Dakota State looks like a serious playoff contender to challenge for that Group of 6 spot as the Bison remain unbeaten.  The loss to Ohio was a joke as they outgained the Bobcats by 188 yards but found a way to lose in OT.  They dominated in the stats in their home wins over Eastern Kentucky (49-7), Georgia Southern (31-27) and Middle Tennessee (23-13).

Kennesaw State is 1-3 this season and way down from last year.  The Owls' lone win came against FCS West Georgia at home in the opener.  They went on to lose by 14 at home to Georgia State, by 33 at Tennessee and by 3 at Arkansas State.  The Owls were gutted on offense only bringing back two starters.  They lost both QB's in Odom and Williams, their top six rushers, and each of their top four receivers.

It's no wonder this Kennesaw State offense is really struggling this season being held to 17 points by a bad Georgia State defense, 9 points by Tennessee and 14 points by a bad Arkansas State defense.  Their defense has been respectable, but it was a bad defense last year that brought back six starters from a unit that allowed 405 yards per game.

While QB Odom is now starting at Syracuse, Kennesaw State now has former Syracuse QB Rickie Collins as its starter.  That's a bad tradeoff as Odom is the much better guy.  Rickie Collins was terrible at Syracuse last year only playing because of an injury to starter Steve Angeli.  He made five starters for the Orange last season and completed just 54% of his passes with a 6-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  He hasn't been much better for Kennesaw with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio in four games.

A quick look at the numbers and it's easy to see Jacksonville State is far and away the superior team.  Jacksonville State averaged 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  Kennesaw State averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and allows 5.8 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* Falcons/Saints ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 48

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the total enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

The Saints are a tired team.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.  This New Orleans offense is solid with QB Tyler Shough and proven weapons in Olave, Johnson and Vele leading them to 27.0 points per game and 382.7 yards per game through three weeks.  But the defense is in shambles right now.

The Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game against. New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  The Saints will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Falcons/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the line enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

While the Falcons have a massive rest advantage here playing last Thursday, the Saints are a tired team with three straight games that went down to the wire.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.

While the Falcons are one of the healthiest, freshest teams in the NFL, the Saints are starting to see injuries pile up.  They are without two starting offensive linemen on the left side of their line, including their best in LT Kelvin Banks Jr.  WR Jordyn Tyson remains on IR.  RB Travis Etienne who they just gave big money to this offense just went on IR after suffering an injury against the Raiders.  That leave she washed up Alvin Kamara to get the bulk of the reps at RB.

Defensively, the Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game to lead the Falcons to victory against a New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Broncos/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 46.5

The 49ers have the best offense in the NFL this season.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game, averaging 399.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Kyle Shanahan has Brock Purdy as a favorite to win the MVP, and they are doing it despite cluster injuries at the WR position.  They are just so good at scheming guys open no matter who is on the field.

But what makes the 49ers an OVER team right now is all their injuries on defense.  They are without as many as six defensive linemen this week in Bosa, Collins, Williams, West, Okuayinonu and Thompson Jr.  DE Keion White, LB Greenlaw and LB Dugger are three starters who are all questionable for the 49ers as well.

All these defensive injuries forced the 49ers to win a 36-30 shootout with the Cardinals last week that saw 66 combined points.  And now the Broncos are going to bring their solid offense into Santa Clara this week to take advantage of this suspect San Francisco defense.  The Broncos and 49ers will both get their points in this one, and this 46.5-point total is too short.

When the Broncos put their foot on the gas offensively, they are elite.  They came back from 16-0 down to beat the Rams 30-26 last week for 56 combined points.  They trailed 13-3 in the 2H against the Jaguars but scored the final 17 points to win that game.  Which ever offense is down is going to come back, and this should be a back and forth game from the jump.  The Broncos actually have playmakers for Bo Nix led by the addition of Waddle, and he is getting more and more comfortable each week after a slow start to the season returning from injury.

The Broncos had elite defensive numbers last season but they also benefited from an easy schedule.  Well, that defense has been exposed by the Chiefs, Jaguars and Rams.  The Broncos are allowing a whopping 380.7 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They clearly miss Jonathan Cooper, their best pass rusher who remains out.  And there are holes all over the secondary, most notably with teams targeting CB Riley Moss.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  After upsetting the Chargers 26-14 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals played two of the best teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Seahawks and 49ers.  They let go of the rope in the 2H after being tied 7-7 with the Seahawks at halftime.  They fought hard but lost 36-30 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 49ers.

Now the Cardinals take a big step down in class here against the Giants.  It's an overrated Giants team that is off to a surprising 2-1 start.  They showed what they were capable of when fully healthy in Week 1 beating the Cowboys 28-20 at home.  But then they lost QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2 and were blown out 28-6 by the Rams.  And last week they played a bottom 3 team in the NFL in the Titans and got a game-winning INT in the end zone to preserve a 12-7 victory.

This is where all the injuries catch up to the Giants.  Backup QB Jameis Winston looks like a shell of his former self.  They built this offense around the dual-threat ability of Dart, but Winston is not that.  Winston is completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 per attempt this season.  The Giants suffered a big blow with the loss of LB Brian Burns, their best overall defender and their best pass rusher.

The Giants have terrible numbers this season.  They are averaging 271.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play on offense, and allowing 329.0 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 57.7 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  It's only going to get worse moving forward in their current state with all these injuries.

The Cardinals have a much more talented roster than they get credit for.  And that has shown this season, and thankfully after being injury-ravaged last year, they are currently one of the most healthy teams in the NFL.  All 11 starters are healthy on offense.  Nine starters are healthy on defense with the lone exception being CB Will Johnson, while DE Josh Sweat is questionable.

The Cardinals are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games against NFC East opponents, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven against this division.  They tend to play much better when they step outside the NFC West, which is far and away the best division in football.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston -2.5

The Texans are the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start.  They have done it twice, including last season.  They have been here before and they will not panic, but they will be playing with a greater sense of urgency this week to get their first win.  They could easily be 3-0 or 2-1 instead when you look at the results.

The Texans were only outgained by 28 yards by the Bills but were -2 in turnovers in a 36-31 home loss in Week 1.  They dropped what would have been the game-winning INT.  In Week 2, they actually outgained the Bengals by 107 yards but lost 20-6.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  And last week they fought back to take a lead, only to lose on a last-second FG 19-17 at Indianapolis.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Texans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Texans fit that bill.

But the biggest reason I'm on the Texans is their injury report compared to that of Dallas.  The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the Week 1 loss to the Bills.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They have played three very good offenses in the Bills, Bengals and Colts and have held them to 325.3 yards per game.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week after not being able to get the game-winning stop in the losses to the Bills and Colts giving up a lead in the final seconds of both.

The Cowboys have a knack for losing close games.  They found a way to lose to the Ravens in Brazil at the buzzer last week, and now this is a brutal spot for them.  It's the type of loss that can beat them twice.  Now they'll be on the road for a second consecutive week after the long flight back from Brazil.  I don't expect it to go well for them, especially with a motivated Houston team waiting for them.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Texans OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 29.3 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  They got in a 36-31 shootout in Week 1 with the Bills for 67 combined points.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the loss.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys this week.

The Texans have regressed defensively this season and are no longer the best defense in the NFL.  A big reason is the injuries at LB with Al-Shaair and his backup in Ossai.  They are also without another starting LB in To'oTo'o, and fellow starting LB Jake Hansen is questionable.  There is a clear hole in the middle of their defense that the Cowboys can exploit.

Dak Prescott is 6-0 OVER n his last six starts against AFC opponents.  The Cowboys are 9-2 OVER in indoor games over the last two seasons and going over the total by an avreage of 9.7 points per game.  Any Dallas total in the 40's indoors is too low.  They just had a 53.5-point total with the Ravens last week after a 51.5-point total with the Commanders the week prior.  This total of 47.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Rams/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Rams are going to come out angry with a point to prove on Sunday.  They have opened 1-2 this season after coming into the year as the Super Bowl favorites.  They also want revenge from blowing a 26-7 lead to the Eagles last year and losing after having their potential game-winning FG at the buzzer blocked.

The Rams still look like the best team in the NFL in my opinion despite their record.  Their numbers are elite, averaging 417.7 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense while allowing just 272.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 145 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play this season.

Last week's fluke loss to the Broncos has them undervalued.  They outgained the Broncos 482 to 257, or by 225 yards.  The Broncos got every call down the stretch and overcame at 16-0 halftime deficit thanks to some help from the refs.  When the Rams get up big again this week, they will not take their foot off the gas.

After sitting out the last two weeks, Puka Nacua is expected back in the lineup to give Matthew Stafford the comfort he needs.  This is the best offense in the NFL in their current state with as healthy as they are on that side of the ball right now.  And the defense is still balling out even without Donald and Garrett.  It's one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, and they do get S Kinchens back this week.

The Eagles are big frauds.  They are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS and easily could have lost all three games.  They needed to stop a 2-point conversion to preserve their 24-22 win over the lowly Commanders in Week 1.  They needed a late TD to beat the lowly Titans 24-20 on the road.  And they just lost to Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday Night Football 27-7 and were thoroughly outplayed throughout.

Now the Eagles are on a short week and the injury report is gloomy for them.  An already hapless offense that was held to 7 points by the Bears last week just got even worse.  After losing AJ Brown in the offseason, now the Eagles will be without star WR DeVonta Smith this week with a hamstring injury.  They are also without TE Dallas Goedert and WR Hollywood Brown.  Jalen Hurts will be throwing the ball to Wicks, Lemon and several other guys you've never heard of before.  This offense has no chance of keeping pace with the Rams.

The Eagles have a great defense on paper, but unfortunately it has not looked nearly as good on the field.  Allowing 22 points to Washington, 20 to the Titans and 27 to the Bears to this point is very poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Bears went for 375 yards on them with Keenum under center.  Now the Eagles are down two starters this week in LB Zack Baun and SS Marcus Epps.  You can run on the Eagles as they are allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game.  The Rams will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +6.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on Temple and 'sell high' spot on South Florida this week.  The Owls are much better than their 1-3 record indicates when you look at the box scores, and the Bulls are much worse than their 4-0 record indicates when you dive into the numbers as well.

Temple is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  After beating Rhode Island 38-14 as 14.5-point favorites in the opener, the Owls lost 27-9 as 24.5-point dogs to Penn State in a game effort back when Penn State was rolling offensively with a healthy Howard at WR.  The 49-48 (OT) loss to Toledo was brutal blowing a 14-point lead in the final minutes.  The 21-17 loss to Army as 3.5-point dogs last week was nearly as bad as they outgained Army by 144 yards and should have won.

South Florida opened with a 19-9 win over FIU as 14.5-point favorites.  The Bulls were outgained by FIU by a whopping 173 yards in a very misleading final.  They trailed that same Army team by 10 points late in the 4th quarter but escaped with a 28-24 win as 3.5-point dogs.  They beat Delaware State 59-17 before only beating Bowling Green 14-6 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  They were actually scoreless going into the 4th quarter against a Bowling Green defense that gave up 56 points to Nebraska and 55 to Iowa State in its previous two games.  Bowling Green may be the worst FBS team in the country, and it took USF to the wire.

Temple has an extra day of rest after losing to Army last Friday.  That extra time to recover and refocus for another conference game here is big.  USF is 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start and ripe for the upset.  The Bulls also have a big game on deck against UTSA on Thursday on a short week.  After managing just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play against Bowling Green and 208 total yards and 3.7 per play against FIU, this USF offense isn't good enough to be asked to win by a TD or more to beat us this week.  I strongly feel Temple is the better team and we likely won't need the 6.5 points this week, but we'll take them for some insurance.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +20.5

The Boise State Broncos are overvalued off a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start to the season.  Now they are being asked to win by three touchdowns to beat us, which is asking too much.  They are still getting a lot of credit for their 7-point loss to Oregon, but they were outgained by 223 yards by Oregon and should have lost by more.

They went on to beat Memphis 38-20, but they allowed 519 yards and 10.0 yards per play to Memphis in another misleading final.  Their 38-24 win over South Dakota as 28.5-point home favorites was unimpressive.  Their 32-7 win at Western Michigan as 7.5-point road favorites last week is what really has them overvalued.  That was a big game for both teams with Group of 6 playoff implications, and after that win this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Broncos.

Utah State is undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS start this season against a brutal schedule.  The 29-17 loss to Idaho State in the opener was very misleading.  They outgained Idaho State by 166 yards but were -4 in turnovers to give the game away.  Idaho State is a Top 5 FCS team to boot.  I always like backing teams after a loss to a FCS opponent because it's the type of loss that lingers in bettors' minds.  Had they been dominated in the stats too I would be concerned, but they weren't.

Utah State came back with a near upset of Washington in a 16-14 road loss as 28.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 75 yards by the Huskies.  They went on to lose 33-0 at Utah, but Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12 to this point.  They finally got their first win last week in a 21-10 home win over Troy as 3-point favorites.  That's a Troy team that nearly upset Missouri on the road the previous week.  They outgained Troy 7.0 to 4.9 yards per play, or by 2.1 yards per play in a dominant effort.

Despite playing similar strength of schedules, Utah State clearly has the better defense.  The Aggies are only allowing 5.1 yards per play this season, while the Broncos are allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Their glaring weakness on defense makes me really question their chances as a playoff team.  Their leaky defense will be a problem all year.

Utah State wants revenge from a 25-24 home loss to Boise State last season.  The Aggies have the goods this season to hang with the Broncos, just like they hung with Washington on the road in a 2-point loss in one of the toughest environments in college football.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/South Carolina OVER 53

Kentucky now has an offensive-minded head coach in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  This Kentucky offense has improved rapidly this season scoring 34.5 points per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play despite a tough schedule that has featured Alabama and Texas A&M.  I love QB Kenny Minchey, who is completing 68.3% of his passes with a 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio.

South Carolina boasts a more up-tempo offense this season.  The Gamecocks are scoring 38.5 points per game while averaging 499.3 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  Veteran QB LaNorris Sellers has thrown for 833 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for 244 yards and a score on 6.8 per carry.  This South Carolina rushing attack has been elite rushing for 262 yards per game and 6.6 per carry.  The Gamecocks will get whatever they want on the ground against Kentucky.

Both defenses are clearly down this season, and South Carolina just suspended its best defender for this game in DE Dylan Stewart after he threw a punch last week.  The Gamecocks lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense from last season as all five were drafted in the first four rounds.  They just allowed 49 points, 489 yards and 8.6 yards per play to Alabama last week.  Kentucky allowed 45 points to Alabama, and it just allowed 21 points in the 1H alone to South Alabama and a backup QB last week.

The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 52 or more combined points in all four games.  The Gamecocks are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 54 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 53 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 61.5

Purdue is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 63 combined points with Indiana State, 74 with Wake Forest, 90 with UCLA and 59 with Notre Dame, which has the best defense in the country for my money.  This total of 61.5 is actually too short for a game involving Purdue right now.

Illinois is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 OVER this season, going for 63 combined points with UAB, 58 with Duke, 58 with Southern Illinois and 61 with Ohio State.  Both teams have great offenses but terrible defenses, and this should be a shootout as a result.

Illinois is scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense.  ECU transfer Katin Houser has been great, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,021 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Collin Dixon has 30 receptions for 430 yards and 7 TD and is the next great Illinois receiver.  The Fighting Illini are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground despite a tough schedule.  What was most impressive was putting up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State's elite defense last week.

The Fighting Illini switched to a 3-3-5 scheme this season but didn't have the personnel for it.  Illinois just this week mutually parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck.  They have been lost defensively and will continue to be lost this week after allowing 518 yards and 7.6 per play to Ohio State.  They also allowed 413 yards to lowly UAB, and 6.6 yards per play to Duke.

Ryan Browne is one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has led this Purdue offense to 32.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play.

Purdue's defensive coordinator needs fired with this performance through four games.  The Boilermakers are allowing 39.5 points per game, 446 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They just don't have much talent on defense.  The Boilermakers play fast on offense ranking 39th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds, which puts a lot of pressure on that tired defense that allowed 49 points to Notre Dame's suspect offense last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Illinois and Ohio State.  They combined for 70 points in 2025, 99 points in 2024 and 63 points in 2023.  It should be more of the same in 2026.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation in Champaign for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +14.5

Iowa is one team that you can't use advanced stats on or common stats to handicap its games.  The Hawkeyes do the little things well, which is special teams, field position and turnovers that often get overlooked in the betting market.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition, which is why they can beat anyone and lose to anyone, but overall it's a winning strategy that has worked wonders for Kirk Ferentz for years.

The Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

I backed Iowa +5.5 last week with success against Michigan.  They had the cover in the bag, but went 90 yards on the final drive and won on a walk off dime from Hank Brown in his best throw of the season in a 20-19 win in Ann Arbor.  That's the type of play and throw that will give Brown a ton of confidence moving forward in this Big 12 season.  He actually has legit weapons in WR Diaz and TE Vonnahme, who have NFL futures.

This Iowa rushing attack is as good as it has been in a long time with a deep stable of RB's and one of the best offensive lines in the country.  The Hawkeyes are rushing for 215.5 yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  They have the usual elite Phil Parker defense, holding opponents to 8.0 points per game, 239.8 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.

This Ohio State defense is not as good as most years with 6 draft picks lost.  The Buckeyes are especially sub-par along the defensive line, and I give Iowa's offensive line the advantage here.  Ohio State allowed a big 2H comeback by Texas in a 24-23 loss.  But most concerning was allowing 462 yards and 6.5 per play to Illinois last week.  They allowed 199 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry to the Fighting Illini, so Iowa will have plenty of success on the ground with a better rushing attack than Illinois and Texas.

Iowa's defense is vulnerable to dual-threat QB's like Bryce Underwood of Michigan, who had one of the best games of his career against Iowa in a losing effort.  The Hawkeyes are much better against pocket QB's like Julian Sayin of Ohio State.  He has just 7 rushing yards on the season.  That's one less thing this Iowa defense has to worry about.  Their sole focus will be stopping WR Jeremiah Smith, who is having a Heisman-caliber seasons.  But there's a big drop off from him to their No. 2 receiver.  He has 20 more receptions and 452 more receiving yards than Devin McCuin.

Kinnick Stadium provides one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country for the Hawkeyes.  Just last year, Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point dogs to eventual national champion Indiana at home.  Also last year, Iowa lost 18-16 as 6-point home dogs to Oregon, one of the best teams in the country.  Now the Hawkeyes will give Ohio State a run for its money as 14.5-point home dogs, a much bigger number than those two big home games last year.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida/Missouri OVER 56.5

Florida is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country behind coordinator Buster Faulkner.  The Gators are 3-1 OVER in all games this season going over the total by an average of 26 points per game.  They went for 87 combined points with FAU, 83 with Auburn and 80 with Ole Miss.  This total of 56.5 is too low for a game involving the Gators, who are going to get their points against everyone.

Florida is averaging 53.5 points per game, 532.8 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  RB Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 TD already while averaging 7.2 per carry.  His backup Duke Clark has rushed for 259 yards and 3 scores at 8.1 per carry.  QB Aaron Philo followed Faulkner from Georgia Tech.  He is completing 72.4% of his passes with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores.

I like Missouri QB Austin Simmons, who beat out Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss last year before getting hurt.  He is one of the most talented QB's the Tigers have had in a long time.  Simmons has a 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season and is stretching the field with a lot of deep passes outside the numbers.  Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode has combined for 46 receptions, 708 receiving yards and 9 TD from Simmons as a proven duo.

Missouri went for 68 combined points with Pine Bluff and 59 points with Kansas in its first two games before playing a grinder against a Troy team with a good defense but a limited offense that also plays slow.  Last week's 31-24 loss to Ole Miss finished with 55 combined points but should have finished with more considering the teams combined for 913 yards of total offense.  That game staying under the 58.5-point total is providing us value to back the OVER at 56.5 against Florida this week, a team with a better offense than Mississippi State.

Both defenses have looked vulnerable in SEC play.  Florida allowed 39 points to Auburn, which is an Auburn offense that has been underwhelming against everyone else.  They allowed 7.0 yards per play to Ole Miss last week.  Missouri allowed 499 yards and 6.4 per play against Mississippi State last week.  That was really the only offense they played with a pulse thus far.  Florida will get what it wants offensively against this Missouri defense that lost a lot of talent to the NFL and brought back just two starters this season.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Columbia.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wyoming/North Dakota State UNDER 46

Both North Dakota State and Wyoming are mirror images of one another, NDSU just does it better.  Both features run-heavy, slow-paced offenses and rely on defense to win games.  NDSU ranks 129th in tempo snapping the ball every 30.5 seconds, while Wyoming ranks 115th at 29.1 seconds.  There will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for points as a result.

North Dakota State is 3-1 UNDER in all games this season.  They beat Jacksonville State 33-7 for 40 combined points, Fordham 38-0 for 38 combined points, and Sacramento State 31-10 for 41 combined points.  The lone over was an aberration as both NDSU and Air Force finished with fewer than 400 yards of offense each and it went for 70 combined points.

NDSU is averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They aren't even running it that well averaging 4.0 yards per carry.  But this NDSU defense is elite, allowing 12.3 points per game, 254.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  I wouldn't be surprised if they come close to shutting out Wyoming in this one.

This Wyoming offense is horrid.  The Cowboys average 17.8 points per game, 326.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  And they have faced a very soft schedule of Colorado State, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan and Hawaii.  They only managed 13 points against Colorado State, which just gave up 59 points to UTSA and 41 points to BYU the last two weeks.  The Cowboys also only scored 21 points against FCS Northern Colorado and 10 points against Central Michigan.

Wyoming does have a solid defense that will hold North Dakota State in check enough for us to cash this UNDER 46 ticket.  The Cowboys allow just 20.5 points per game this season.  They held Hawaii to 10 points last week at home.  It will be windy with 10-15 MPH winds for this one, which will affect passing and kicking games and slow down both offenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones took a ton of money again this week.  They opened around +1 and were bet up to -3.5-point favorites as of the time I submitted this pick.  This comes after opening around +12.5 and being bet down to +7.5 last week against Utah.  That money was dead wrong.  This money will be dead wrong, too.

I think Iowa State is getting too much respect for blowout wins over FCS SE Missouri State and Bowling Green, which is one of the worst teams in all of FBS.  They also played Iowa close, but that's a rivalry game that is played close almost every year.  They had it handed to them by Utah last week.

Utah beat Iowa State 31-17 in Ames.  The Utes jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  They averaged 6.8 yards per play on offense compared to 4.3 yards per play for Iowa State offensively.  Most concerning were the 28 missed tackles by Iowa State defensively in that game that allowed the Utes to rush for 205 yards and 6.2 per carry.

Those missed tackles will be a problem again this week against a run-heavy, fast-paced West Virginia offense that will keep coming and test the depth of this Iowa State defense, which isn't very good.  The Mountaineers are averaging 294.8 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season despite a tough schedule.  That includes 247 rushing yards in their 38-27 win over Virginia and 335 rushing yards in their 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State last week.

And that 41-24 loss to the Cowboys is what has the Mountaineers underred.  Keep in mind Oklahoma State beat Oregon too and had better numbers against Oregon.  The weakness of this WVU defense is its pass defense, and Oklahoma State lit it up for 389 passing yards.  Well, Iowa State has one of the worst passing offenses in the Big 12.

The Cyclones are only averaging 164.8 passing yards per game this season.  Jaylen Raynor is only completing 54.3% of his passes despite a ton of dump offs to running backs.  He's just not a very accurate passer, and the Cyclones don't have the talent at receiver to exploit this WVU pass defense.  Their leading receiver has 156 yards through four games.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama/Mississippi State OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams with elite offenses square off in Starkville Saturday in what should be an absolute shootout.  Alabama is 4-0 OVER in all games this season with 67 or more combined points in three of its four games.  Kalen DeBoer has this offense humming.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 48.0 points per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They finally have a running game this season averaging 188.3 rushing yards per game.  It helps having a dual-threat QB in sophomore Keelon Russell.  He is competing 70.9% of his passes for 1,129 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 168 yards and 3 TD.

Jeff Lebby has this Mississippi State offense humming per usual.  The Bulldogs rank 6th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  He has possibly the best QB in program history in Kamario Taylor, who is completing 69.2% of his passes for 1,192 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Taylor has also rushed for 185 yards and a score.  He leads a Mississippi State offense scoring 43.0 points per game, averaging 533.3 yards per game and 7.5 per play.

Alabama has scored at least 45 points in all four games this season despite playing Kentucky, FSU and South Carolina already.  The Crimson Tide will get their points in this one, too.  Mississippi State has scored at least 31 points in all four games despite facing Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri already.  I expect both teams to get 30-plus in this one as this sails OVER the 59.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -3

I love the spot for Virginia Tech this week.  With a 4-0 start under James Franklin, Hokie fans are back and excited for this team for the first time in years.  Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for a Friday night home game in Blacksburg.  Home-field advantage is worth more than 3 points in this situation, and I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams, so getting the Hokies -3 is a great value.

Virginia Tech has opened 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After blowout wins over VMI 73-3 and ODU 44-21, the Hokies went on the road and beat Maryland 35-26 as 2.5-point favorites.  I think Maryland quit last week against UCLA and was hungover from the loss to rival VA Tech and just didn't show up, so I'm throwing out that result.

I'm also throwing out the 21-14 win at Boston College last week where the Hokies were life and death with the Eagles.  That game was played in a monsoon and allowed Boston College to stay competitive in the poor weather.  The Hokies still outgained the Eagles by 109 yards in the win.  It was a tough spot for them too in a bit of a letdown after the Maryland win.  The Hokies will have no problem getting back up to face Pitt this week.

Pitt's numbers are inflated right now due to an easy schedule with 4 straight home games to open the season.  Blowout wins over Miami Ohio and Bucknell have really inflated those numbers.  QB Mason Heintschel threw all 13 of his TD passes in those two games, and he didn't throw a single TD pass in the two games he played against teams with a pulse.

Pitt was unimpressive in a 12-7 win over UCF as 7-point home favorites.  Pitt beat Syracuse 27-13 as 10.5-point home favorites, but that game was much closer than the final score.  The Panthers only outgained the Orange by 21 yards.  This is a big step up in class for the Panthers and their first true road game of the season in the most hostile atmosphere they will face all season.  Heintschel has tended to make big mistakes in their biggest games over the last two seasons, and I think he will serve up VT a couple turnovers in this one that will be the difference.

The best unit on the field is Virginia Tech's defensive line and front seven in general.  The Hokies rank 1st in the nation in tackles for loss (45), 1st in line yards per rush and 1st in havoc created.  They will make life difficult on Pitt's rushing attack, and thus force the Panthers to be one-dimensional and capitalize on Hentschel's mistakes.

The Hokies have a veteran QB in Ethan Grunkenmeyer who is not going to make the big mistake.  He is completing 74.3% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season.  RB Overton is a stud with 409 rushing yards and 4 TD on 6.8 per carry.  The Hokies have one of the best TE's in the country in Luke Reynolds, who has 30 receptions for 280 yards and 4 TD. And WR Que'Sean Brown has 26 receptions for 224 yards and a score.  Pitt has great defensive numbers, but hasn't really been tested yet like it will be by the Hokies this week.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/New Mexico State OVER 57

Western Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Hilltoppers have gone 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 63 combined points with Nevada, 90 with Georgia and 59 with Mercyhurst.  The defense is alarmingly bad allowing 41 points per game, 439 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.

New Mexico State has played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Aggies are still allowing 29.8 points per game despite that fact.  They lost 34-17 to Florida State, 29-19 to Hawaii and 42-18 to New Mexico.  They beat Mercyhurst 51-14.

Western Kentucky has also played a brutal schedule with three road games at Nevada, Georgia and Indiana to open the season.  They got blown out in all three games and didn't show much offensively especially in the 2H of those games going slower than they normally do offensively.

Both offenses take a big step down in class here against these opposing defenses and should have their way tonight.  I also like the fact that these are two up-tempo offenses.  NMSU ranks 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds, while WKU ranks 16th snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  Look for WKU to play even faster now in conference play.

This New Mexico State offense has been solid despite a tough schedule of opposing defense.  They went for 17 points and 319 yards against FSU, 530 yards against Mercyhurts, 398 yards and 6.2 per play against Hawaii and 400 yards and 5.8 per play against New Mexico, which held Oklahoma to 14 points on the road the week prior.

With both offenses playing fast there will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  The forecast also looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation tonight in Las Cruces.  The OVER is 2-1 in the last three meetings with 67, 69 and 51 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Ravens/Cowboys OVER 53

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 28.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  Even Marcus Mariota had success against them after taking over for an injury Jayden Daniels last week.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

The Ravens went off to 41 points and 506 yards against the Colts in Week 1.  Zay Flowers only played the first half and had 5 receptions for 150 yards in the win.  He sat out the 2H and sat out the game against the Saints last week.  He looked good in pregame warmups and could return this week.  But either way, this Baltimore offense is going to be able to name its number against this Dallas defense to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Cowboys will do enough to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys NFL Brazil ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

This is a good 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  They are coming off one of their usual baffling upset home losses to the Saints last week in a 24-17 loss as 8.5-point favorites.  They had no business losing that game, but they found a way.

After blasting the Colts 41-23 in the opener and outgaining them by 255 yards, they fell asleep at the wheel last week.  They still outgained the Saints by 14 yards and 1.0 yards per play.  In fact, their numbers are elite this season.  They are averaging 409 yards per game and 7.1 per play on offense, and allowing 274.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.

The Cowboys are fortunate to be 1-1.  They lost to the Giants 28-20 in Week 1 and were outgained by 150 yards.  They beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 2 in a misleading win.  They were outgianed by 57 yards by the Commanders, who lost starting QB Jayden Daniels on the final play of the 2Q when they were going into to score to tie it 17-17.  Even Marcus Mariota moved the ball at will on this awful Dallas defense.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  They are getting outgained by 103.5 yards per game.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

Jesse Minter is an elite defensive mind and has made this Baltimore defense even better.  Just look at what the Chargers are doing defensively without him, allowing 26 points to the Cardinals and 26 more to the Raiders without Brock Bowers thus far.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy defensively right now and will do enough to slow down Dak and this Dallas offense.  

Lamar Jackson is 25-4 SU against the NFC in his career.  He is tough to prepare for and these NFC teams haven't been able to get it done.  The Cowboys won't be able to slow him down either, especially with the distractions and less prep time with a travel to Brazil.  But the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/49ers UNDER 48

I like the UNDER 48 in this division rivalry between the Cardinals and 49ers.  These were two of the most injury-ravaged defenses in the NFL last season.  Both are much healthier this season and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

The 49ers in particular have been elite defensively holding the Rams to 7 points and the Dolphins to 13.  And the Dolphins got their lone TD on a 77-yard bomb in the final seconds of garbage time in a blowout.  The 49ers had their backups in.

The Cardinals are allowing just 22.5 points per game to the Chargers and Seahawks.  They held the Seahawks to 7 points at halftime but let it get away in the 2H.  They finished with 40 combined points with the Chargers and 38 combined points with the Seahawks.  The 49ers finished with 34 combined points with the Rams and 48 combined points with the Dolphins.

The Cardinals managed just 151 yards and 3.4 yards per play against the Seahawks last week.  It won't get much easier for them offensively against the 49ers this week.  Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back, plus Raheem Morris getting the most out of this secondary has made the 49ers impressive defensively.  

The 49ers have managed to get by offensively but playing the Dolphins helps.  They have a ton of injuries at receiver and will be without Aiyuk, Stribling, Robinson, Pearsall and Kirk who are all on IR.  Mike Evans will play through his injury, and Deebo Samuel is a shell of his former self.  They signed Brandin Cooks off the street this week.  This offense will have problems being very explosive.  It will be a lot of methodical drives for the 49ers with a run-heavy scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Bucs +1.5

Teams that are 0-2 like the Bucs up against teams with at least one win have gone 43-22 ATS in Week 3 in their last 65 tries.  These teams like the Bucs play with desperation to avoid opening 0-3, and they tend to be undervalued after a poor start.  I think that's the case for the Bucs here as home underdogs to the Vikings.

The Bucs could easily be 2-0.  They turned the ball over 4 times that led to 24 points for the Bengals in a 33-27 loss on the road in Week 1.  They had another costly turnover in a 23-19 loss to the Browns in Week 2, blowing a double-digit lead in the 2H.  They are -4 in turnovers thus far, things that are easily correctable.

The Vikings are 2-0 but could easily be 0-2.  They beat the Packers in Week 1 despite getting outgained by 180 yards.  That was probably the most misleading final of the season.  They beat the Bears 9-3 in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 51 yards and benefitting from the poor weather and the injury to Caleb Williams.

Kyler Murray is back this week for the Vikings, but QB's returning from a concussion have been historically poor in their first game back.  They play more conservative than they normally would with the concussion in the back of their mind.  And Murray's legs are his biggest weapon as he has been a pretty inaccurate passer.  He won't be looking to run much in this game.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have everyone available on offense and that wasn't the case last year for Baker Mayfield, who consistently had to play down a few weapons and offensive linemen.  He has everyone healthy now and should thrive this week.  The defense is healthy outside of LB.  I fully expect a big effort from the Bucs here to get the outright win with the wrong team favored.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Washington Commanders are completely broken.  They just lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to another dislocated elbow last week in a 37-20 loss to the Cowboys.  We are getting Marcus Mariota now, and he is one of the worst backups in the NFL.  But there's cluster injuries everywhere for the Commanders that will make it hard for them to be competitive at least this week against the defending champs.

The Commanders are without QB Daniels, TE Okonkwo, LT Tunsil and RG Cosmi on offense.  Those are their two best offensive linemen, and they have a Bottom 3 offensive line in their current state which will give Mariota almost zero chance of being successful.

The Commanders came into the season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  It has gotten worse due to injuries to green dot LB Frankie Luvu and their leader in the secondary in SS Nick Cross.  They allowed 37 points to the Cowboys last week, and the Seahawks will get whatever they want offensively this week.

The Seahawks were able to beat the Patriots 13-10 in Week 1 despite losing Sam Darnold in the 1Q and being without a couple key starters on defense.  Drew Lock came alive in the 2H of that game in a tough spot.  With a full week to prep for Lock, the Seahawks came back with an even more impressive 31-7 win at Arizona last week.  They had 381 total yards on offense against an improved Arizona defense.

The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL this season.  They held the Patriots to 10 points, and then the Cardinals to 7 points, 151 total yards and 3.4 yards per play.  This came a week after the Cardinals went on the road and beat the Chargers by double-digits.  It was a great performance from Seattle last week.

Now the Seahawks get Sam Darnold back this week.  He is an upgrade over Drew Lock, though I was willing to lay -7 even with Lock as the projected QB earlier this week.  This Seattle offense is fully healthy now and will get whatever it wants against this weak Washington defense.  The Seahawks got back S Nick Emmanwori last week, arguably their most important defender with his versatility.  They have an elite defensive line that will overwhelm this terrible, banged up Washington O-Line.

The Seahawks are the ultimate road warriors.  They are now 20-2 SU & 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Jets really should be 2-0.  They outgained the Titans 367 to 195, or by 172 yards in their 23-10 victory.  They outgained the Packers 285 to 199, or by 86 yards in their 20-17 loss.  Their defense clearly looks legit this season holding their first two opponents below 200 yards.  No question their defense will be the best the Lions have faced yet.

The Lions were actually outgained by 100 yards by the Saints at home and were fortunate to win in OT.  They wre outgained by 91 yards by the Bills in Week 2.  The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead, and the Lions got a lot of their yardage in garbage time with the game already decided.  This line should be much closer to 3 than 7 given how poor this Detroit defense is, making it tough for them to get margin because they can't get stops.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills -7

Joe Brady taking over as head coach has unleashed this Buffalo offense.  He now is in control and has gone more pass-happy especially on early downs to make this offense less predictable.  He is maximizing Josh Allen's talents and Allen is on track to win the MVP if he keeps playing this way.

The Bills went on the road and beat the Texans 36-31 in Week 1.  They had 409 total yards including 8.2 yards per play against what many feel is the best defense in the NFL in Houston.  Last week, they beat the Lions 41-31 at home on Thursday night football behind 446 yards and 6.7 per play.  They jumped out to a 21-0 lead and really took their foot off the gas late in that game on a short week.

Now the Bills have extra time to rest and prepare for the Chargers and to get even healthier.  DJ Moore went out early in that win over the Lions with a shoulder injury.  But he has been activated for Sunday and gives Allen that go-to weapon he has been missing in Buffalo.  Fellow starting WR Keon Coleman is also active after being questionable all week.  This is the best offense in the NFL for my money.

No question this Buffalo defense has some holes, but they are pretty healthy right now especially in the back seven.  DT Ed Oliver was scratched prior to the Detroit game.  He is expected to be active this week.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard runs a blitz-happy scheme to get pressure as much as possible.  That will work great against the Chargers, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially up the middle.

The Chargers are legit one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.  They lost 26-14 at home to the Cardinals as 8.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They were outgained by 125 yards by the Cardinals, who went on to lose 31-7 to the Seahawks last week and managed just 151 total yards.  The Chargers responded with another flat 26-14 loss to the Raiders as 6.5-point home favorites last week.

The offense is clearly broken with this offensive line and a lack of playmakers at receiver.  They are also down two tight ends due to injury.  But just as alarming is how poor this defense has looked without Jesse Minter, who is the head coach of the Ravens now.  They are without S Elijah Molden and NT Dalvin Tomlinson due to injury.  And this is just an aging defense that isn't very good.  Derwin James has to play with a cast on his broken hand as well.

The Bills are going to score and put up 30-plus points in this game again.  I don't think the Chargers are able to keep up, especially after being held to 14 points by both the Cardinals and Raiders, two below-average defenses.  The downward spiral continues for the Chargers this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jets/Lions OVER 48

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Lions still have an elite offense scoring 31 points against the Saints and 31 against the Bills the first two weeks.  They get two starting offensive linemen back this week and are back to close to full strength up front.  This will be by far the best offense the Jets have faced this season.  The Lions will get their points as they always do in dome games to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  

The Lions are 31-12 OVER as home favorites over the last 10 seasons.  Geno Smith is 18-7 OVER in dome games in his career.  Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 21-8 OVER in home games with totals of less than 50 as a duo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Jaguars UNDER 46

The Patriots are a dead nuts UNDER team with an elite defense and a suspect offense.  That has played out this season with the Patriots losing 13-10 to the Seahawks in Week 1 for just 23 combined points, and beating the Steelers 20-3 in Week 2 with another 23 combined points.  This total of 46 is double that, and it's simply too high.

This New England offense has scored a total of 23 points in two games.  Their defense scored one of their TD's last week against the Steelers on a sack-fumble.  Drake Maye has been terrible with a 1-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  A big reason for his struggles is the injury to WR AJ Brown, their prized offseason acquisition.  He remains out, and what's left is one of the worst WR rooms in the league.

The Patriots are likely to keep going run-heavy with their duo of Stevenson and Henderson.  Well, they will be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who could hang their hat on stopping the run last year and brought almost everyone back on D.  They have been stopping the run thus far as well allowing 95.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

This Jacksonville defense held the Browns to 10 points in Week 1.  The Browns also scored their only TD in garbage time in the final minutes.  They held the Broncos to 20 points last week.  They will hold this New England offense in check, too.

The Jaguars do have a lot of talent on offense.  But I love the matchup for this New England defense.  Christian Gonzalez may be the best CB in the NFL and the Patriots will use him against Parker Washington as much as possible.  He shut down DK Metcalf last week and held JSN in check in Week 1.  Opposite him is another elite CB in Carlton Davis III, who has been upgraded to probable this week.  These corners will make life tough on these talented Jacksonville WR's, though Brian Thomas has been a major disappointment.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Washington State UNDER 48.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

New head coach Kirby Moore is trying to follow in Rogers' footprints.  He has Washington State playing slow again ranking 122nd in tempo, snapping the ball every 29.9 seconds.  It's easy to see why with this roster absolutely gutted in the offseason.

The result has been a 2-1 record to the UNDER and low-scoring losses to both Washington and Kansas State.  The Cougars lost 24-10 to rival Washington for just 34 combined points.  They lost 34-7 to Kansas State for 41 combined points.  And they beat Duquesne 48-7, getting to flex offensively finally against a lesser opponent.  But now they'll have to get back to a grinder this week against Arizona.

This Washington State offense is broken managing just 242 yards against Washington and 166 yards against Kansas State.  It won't get any easier against this solid Arizona defense that allowed just 19.3 points per game last season.  The Wildcats are allowing 17.3 points per game and 299.7 yards per game despite playing BYU.

Arizona's offense is in trouble with top receiver Gio Richardson out after suffering an injury early in the loss to BYU.  Richardson had 9 receptions for 113 yards in the opener against Northern Arizona, a 35-7 win that saw NAU score its only TD on a Pick 6 in the 4th quarter.  Noah Fifita is lost without him and managed just 17 points against BYU.  It will be tough sledding for Fifita and this Arizona offense this week, too.

Arizona is in no hurry either ranking 107th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.9 seconds.  This total of 48.5 is too high tonight for a game involving two slow-paced offenses who are both better on defense than they are on offense.  There will be fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for points as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State/West Virginia OVER 61

Both Oklahoma State and West Virginia want to play fast and put pressure on opposing defenses with the goal of wearing them out.  There should be a ton of possessions in this game.  Oklahoma State ranks 15th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds, while WVU ranks 33rd snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.

Oklahoma State showed what it was capable of offensively with a 39-31 win over Oregon in Week 2.  The Cowboys gashed a very good Oregon defense for 554 yards and 6.7 yards per play.  They came back with 59 points against Murray State last week.

Rich Rod finally has an offense at WVU.  The Mountaineers put up 31 points quickly against Coastal Carolina in the opener.  They scored 52 on Tennessee-Martin in Week 2.  And last week was the most impressive, beating Virginia 38-27 for 65 combined points to improve to 3-0 OVER this season.

Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins has been one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with 5 TD's, while also rushing for 322 yards and 6 TD already.  Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook is one of the best RB's in the country, rushing for 317 yards and 3 TD.

Eric Morris brought his best players from North Texas with him to Stillwater.  So far so good with QB Drew Mestemaker throwing for 882 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 106 yards and a score.  RB Caleb Hawkins has 261 rushing yards, and WR Wyatt Young has 218 receiving yards and 2 TD to go along with Justin Bowick, who has 281 receiving yards and 3 TD.  

There will be a ton of points in this game, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Morgantown.  Temps will be in the 60's with no wind or rain to speak of.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Penn State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Wisconsin and Penn State today.  There will be 10-15 MPH sustained winds throughout, which will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.

I expect both defenses to have their way in this one.  Penn State is allowing 7.3 points per game, 201 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play this season.  Wisconsin is allowing 20.0 points per game, 289.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play this season.  And Wisconsin held Notre Dame to 350 total yards in the opener to show how good its defense can be.

Neither offense is in a hurry.  Penn State ranks 104th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.6 seconds.  Wisconsin ranks 102nd snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds.  This game will featured fewer possessions, and thus fewer opportunities for points.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 41, 26 and 32 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin +10

Penn State is overvalued after opening 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against one of the softest schedules in the country.  The Nittany Lions have wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo.  They have played the 125th-ranked schedule in the country.

Wisconsin is greatly improved this season thanks to finally having a QB in Old Dominion transfer, Colton Joseph.  He has thrown for 752 yards and 5 TD while averaging 8.8 per attempt, while also rushing for 82 yards and a score.  He is the first dual-threat QB Wisconsin has had in a long time, which opens up the entire playbook.

Wisconsin lost 41-13 to Notre Dame in the opener.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  Two turnovers led directly to two quick TD's by Notre Dame.  The Badgers held the Fighting Irish to 350 total yards and were only outgained by 66 yards.  Many believe Notre Dame is the best team in the country.

The Badgers came back with blowout wins over Western Illinois by 27 and Eastern Michigan by 44.  They should still be very fresh for this game, and their offensive line is healthy now after it wasn't in the opener against Notre Dame.  I fully expect the Badgers to give the Nittany Lions a run for their money today.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Georgia Southern +18

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss at Clemson as 19.5-point dogs, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

Off a misleading 31-27 loss to Jacksonville State in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 67 yards, the Eagles are flying under the radar.  They already showed they could play with Clemson, and I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money at home today.  This will be one of the best atmospheres every in Statesboro with a Power 4 opponent coming to play on their field.

I think this is a flat spot for Houston.  The Cougars just lost 28-26 to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on the road last week.  It was a big effort, but the Cougars missed a 2-point conversion to send it into OT.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  I don't think they will be able to get back up off the mat this week, especially in this massive sandwich spot with another Big 12 game against UCF on deck next week.  They would be more than happy just getting in and getting out with a win rather than running the score up.

I expect this to be a defensive grinder between two top-notch defenses and two underwhelming offenses.  It's also worth noting Houston head coach Willie Fritz is a former head coach at Georgia Southern.  He loves the program, and he won't want to run it up on them.  I think Fritz will be in for more of a fight than he bargained for today.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Houston/Georgia Southern UNDER 57

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in five of its last six.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, plus QB JC French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss to Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

But Max Johnson and this Georgia Southern offense have been underwhelming.  Johnson is completing 65.5% of his passes with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio and averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  He isn't going to make the big mistake, and his conservative nature plays right into our hands here being the perfect UNDER QB.

Willie Fritz has this Houston defense playing great football since joining the Big 12. The Cougars allowed 22.9 points per game in his first season in 2024 and 22.8 points per game last season.  Despite playing two great offenses already in Texas Tech and Oregon State, the Cougars are only allowing 18.0 points per game ad 316 yards per game.

Houston features a run-heavy offense and isn't in a hurry.  The Cougars are averaging 41 rush attempts per game compared to just 29 pass attempts.  They have been in dog fights with Texas Tech and Oregon State, too.  If they get a lead they will just try to run out the clock in the 2H which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 57 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

Michigan's results have been much more concerning.  They should have lost to Western Michigan, winning 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites only after the refs somehow put one second back on the clock so they got a 2nd attempt at a hail mary, which they converted.

The Wolverines then went on to beat Oklahoma 17-10.  That's an Oklahoma team that nearly lost at home to New Mexico last week in a 14-6 win.  And Michigan was outgained by 26 yards by Oklahoma.  Then last week Michigan beat UTEP 52-17.  But that was a much closer game than the final score.  Michigan only led 17-14 at halftime and had to utilize a lot of energy in the 2H to pull away.  That's a UTEP team that also lost 51-0 to Oklahoma.

Bryce Underwood is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  He is inaccurate as a passer and more known for what he can to with his legs.  But Iowa will be prepared for it behind one of the best defenses in the country and legendary coordinator Phil Parker.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 4.3 points per game, 176.7 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I actually think Iowa is better on both sides of the football.  They get some key players back on offense in RB Moulton and TE Vonnahme this week from injury.  They finally have a legit NFL-caliber receiver in Tony Diaz, who has 17 receptions for 201 yards this season.  They will test Michigan physically, and I anticipate Iowa to win the battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  I also expect them to win this game outright in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

Two of the best defenses in the country square off today in this SEC opener between Oklahoma and Georgia.  I expect it to be the ultimate grinder with both defenses ahead of both offenses, and that's especially the case for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma made the college football playoff last season in spite of a terrible offense with QB John Mateer.  The Sooners allowed just 15.5 points per game last season despite the brutal schedule.  With seven starters back on D this season, they are elite again allowing just 7.7 points per game, 215.3 yards per game and 3.8 per play through the first three weeks.  Last year's leading tackler Kip Lewis (76 tackles, 4 sacks) is expected to return from injury this week to give the defense a boost.

I didn't think it was possible, but this Oklahoma offense looks even more broken this season.  They lost 17-10 at Michigan for just 27 combined points.  They only beat New Mexico 14-6 at home last week for just 20 combined points.  They are without two of their most important pieces on offense in LT Michael Fasusi and WR Trell Harris.

Georgia also has some questions on offense with leading rusher Nate Frazier and arguably their most talented receiver in Isiah Canion both questionable.  I think Gunner Stockton is a better runner than thrower, and he will finally be tested after one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far against FCS Tennessee State, Western Kentucky and the worst team in the SEC in Arkansas.  Georgia has been padding its offensive stats against some awful defenses.

Georgia has an elite defense that will step its game up this week.  The Bulldogs are allowing 13.3 points per game, 211.3 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play.  This despite them pulling starters in the 2H of most of these games thus far with them already in hand, allowing opponents to put up some points and yards late with the game in hand.  No starters will be coming out for this Georgia D today, and they will shut down Oklahoma to aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Utah/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 48

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48 ticket between Utah and Iowa State this afternoon.  It will be a sloppy field due to rain, and there will be sustained 15 MPH winds throughout that will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back in Week 2 with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

I think last week's 55-7 win over Bowling Green has this total inflated.  Bowling Green may be the worst defense in the country after giving up 56 points to Nebraska the week prior.  Even this poor Iowa State offense had its way, while also being aided by a 100-yard kickoff return TD, a 66-yard punt return TD and several other plays that set up Iowa State with easy scoring opportunities.  That will not happen against Utah.

The Utes lost all five starting offensive linemen and several playmakers from last year's team.  But they have an elite defense as they always do, allowing just 8.0 points per game, 239.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play this season.  Their offensive numbers are inflated due to an easy strength of schedule with games against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State.  Iowa State will offer much more resistance defensively than those three teams did.

Rogers has Iowa State playing slow just like he did at Washington State.  The Cyclones rank 134th out of 138 teams in tempo, snapping the ball every 32.1 seconds.  Utah is in no hurry either, ranking 82nd at 27.5 seconds between snaps.  Both offenses are run-heavy with questionable QB play in the passing game and lack of talent at receiver.  This will be the ultimate grinder and easily stay UNDER this 48-point total, especially with the forecast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3

The No. 21 Florida Gators are favored over the No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels today for good reason.  The Gators are a legit SEC title contender this season that everyone is sleeping on.  The Rebels are overvalued after making college football playoff semifinals last season and beating LSU last week.

And that's the key here.  This is a massive letdown spot for Ole Miss off one of the biggest wins in program history over former head coach Lane Kiffin and the Tigers.  After such an emotional 32-24 win, the Rebels will be flat as a pancake this week.  They can afford a loss now after important, narrow wins over Louisville and LSU to start the season.

Florida is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with a 66-21 win over FAU as 25.5-point favorites, a 52-3 win over Campbell as 50.5-point favorites and an impressive 44-39 win at Auburn as 2.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind Florida had a 475-220 edge in total yards over Auburn last week midway through the 4th quarter before Auburn padded its stats in garbage time with two late TD's in the final 6 minutes.  Florida really dominated that game.

Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the best in the country and he is proving it.  Coming over from Georgia Tech and bringing QB Aaron Philo with him, Faulkner has the Gators scoring 54.0 points per game, averaging 544.3 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The playmakers are elite for Philo at receiver, and they may have the best RB in the country in Jaden Baugh, who has rushed for 458 yards and 8 TD thus far.

No question Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense are great as well.  But this offense took a hit with an injury to one of the best RB's in the country in Kewan Lacy against LSU.  Lacy is not expected to play today.  This Ole Miss defense is clearly vulnerable too after allowing 38 points and 469 yards to Louisville in the opener.  They only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards, and Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country.

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall is 15-4-1 ATS in his last 20 games as a single-digit favorite.  Sumrall comes over from Tulane after taking the Green Wave to the college football playoff last year.  Tulane played Ole Miss twice last season, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs, losing both.  You can bet Sumrall wants his revenge here with elite players in the SEC that can get the job done for him.  This will be the 3rd time he has prepped for Ole Miss in the last year, so Sumrall and the Gators will have the preparation advantage.

Gainesville is back.  It's going to be a hostile atmosphere for this Top 25 matchup, and home-field advantage is worth a lot more than is being factored into this line for the Gators.  This will be the first true road game for Ole Miss and I don't expect it to go well for them.  They will be flat as a pancake today off the LSU win.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Hawaii -2.5

I love the spot for Hawaii today.  The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a bye week to get healthy and put two weeks of focus into beating Wyoming.  After losses to Stanford and UNLV to open the season, they came back with a sense of urgency in a 29-19 win over New Mexico State as 7-point favorites.  That's a NMSU team that gave Florida State all they could handle on the road.  That urgency will be big this week as they step back into Mountain West play.

Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost 35-13 at Colorado State in their opener, a rebuilding Rams team with a first-year head coach.  They struggle with FCS Northern Colorado in a 21-13 win as 23.5-point home favorites in Week 2.  That's a Northern Colorado team that was coming off consecutive losses to Weber State and South Dakota to open the season, and followed up the Wyoming loss with a OT win over lowly Northeastern State.

Last week, Wyoming lost 24-10 at Central Michigan in a physical game.  Central Michigan rushed 59 times for 339 yards on Wyoming.  That's a CMU team that barely beat Colgate 13-10 the previous week as 18.5-point favorites.  They also lost 38-7 to New Mexico in Week 1.  

The Cowboys are now beat up and tired defensively.  They won't have much left in the tank for Hawaii today, and they just aren't good enough to do anything about it.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sam Houston +34.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abilene Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State two weeks ago as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

Speaking of fortunate, they escaped with another 28-26 win as 7.5-point favorites over Houston in their Big 12 opener last week.  They allowed 458 yards to Houston and were outgained by 33 yards.  Now this is a sandwich spot for the Red Raiders, who have another Big 12 game on deck next week.  They won't be preparing at all for Sam Houston State and just want to get out of here with a win.  They aren't concerned with getting margin, and I don't expect them to win by 5 TD's or more as a result.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in college football.  The Bearkats are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 58 points in the three games.  They lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs, by 6 to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and beat Nicholls State by 59 as 21-point favorites.  Those narrow losses to Troy and Tulsa look much better now when you consider Troy nearly upset Missouri on the road lost week, and Tulsa upset Oklahoma State which upset Oregon.  The Bearkats outgained both Troy and Tulsa, too.

Sam Houston QB Landyn Locke has impressive numbers, throwing for 973 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  But the improvement on defense is most noticeable.  The Bearkats are holding opponents to 15.7 points per game, 290.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Locke will make enough plays to keep the Bearkats competitive, and the defense will hold this Texas Tech offense in check enough to stay within this inflated number in this clear flat spot for the Red Raiders.  Bet Sam Houston State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -9.5

Baylor lost in OT after a hail mary on the final play of regulation by Shedeur Sanders and Colorado on the road in 2024.  Dave Aranda and his remaining players have not forgotten, and they want revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread.

Baylor has opened 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season despite not having starting QB DJ Lagway, a Florida transfer, for the past two games.  They only lost 17-16 to Auburn as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral in the opener.  They outgained Auburn by 47 yards to show what they are capable of.  They came back with a 44-3 win over Prairie View A&M as 37.5-point favorites and a 36-19 win over LA Tech as 19.5-point home favorites.

The Bears will get a boost this week with the return of several key players, including QB Lagway.  WR Jadon Porter, S Devin Turner and LOT Logan Moore are also supposed to return from injuries this week.  The Bears are as close to full strength as they can be going into this game.

Colorado is a mess.  The 14-13 win at Georgia Tech in the opener doesn't look as good now after Georgia Tech went on to lose 45-24 at home to Tennessee.  After winning but failing to cover at home against Weber State, Colorado just got blasted 41-7 by Northwestern last week.  There is a ton of turmoil in that Colorado locker room right now.  

Deion Sanders has kicked off multiple players for conduct detrimental to the team.  This team just isn't that good as it is, and Sanders may be losing the locker room.  The Bears don't care and will look to kick them while they are down.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Falcons/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

There are a couple systems favoring the Atlanta Falcons that are in play in a big way Thursday.  Teams who started 0-2 against a team with at least one win are 42-22-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These 0-2 teams play with desperation knowing how important it is to get their first win.

Teams like the Packers who are coming off an OT game and on a short week are 5-27 ATS in their last 32 tries.  We saw this play out last Thursday with the Bills blasting the Lions who were off an OT game against the Saints.  Single-digit favorites in this spot are actually 0-15 ATS in their last 15 tries.

The Packers are a tired, banged up team.  They just beat the Jets 20-17 (OT) on the road last week and now have the long travel back home to Green Bay to play on a short week.  They already have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and that O-Line gets even worse this week with two more starters in Zach Tom and Aaron Banks.  WR Jayden Reed suffered an injury last week that could knock him out for the season.  The Packers are also without their best defender in LB Micah Parsons and a key depth piece in DE Warren Brinson.  Both NT Javon Hargrave and DE Anthony Campbell are questionable as well.

The Packers were very fortunate to win last week.  The Jets held them to 199 yards and outgained them by 86 yards and should have won, but some poor coaching decisions allowed the Packers to get the win in OT.  Green Bay cannot run the ball averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game, which puts a lot of pressure on Jordan Love and the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the league.  They just aren't healthy enough to warrant being 5.5-point home favorites here.

It will be much easier for the Falcons to come back on a short week from a 34-3 blowout loss to the Panthers last week.  They basically pulled all their important players in the 2H of that game to keep them fresh for this Thursday game.  I think it will pay big dividends here for the desperate Falcons.

Cooper Rush has been the worst QB in the NFL and it's not close.  The Falcons were severely handcuffed with him as their QB the last two weeks.  But Michael Penix Jr. will make his return this week and give the offense a massive upgrade at QB.  He is one of the more underrated QB's in the league in my opinion and his chemistry with Drake London and Kyle Pitts has been awesome, especially London.

With Rush at QB, the he didn't even trust himself enough to throw the ball down the field to two of his best weapons in London and Pitts.  He simply checked it down to Bijan Robinson almost every time.  London and Pitts have a combined 7 receptions for 95 yards in two weeks.  That is unacceptable, and Penix will find them and find them often.  That should help open things up for Bijan Robinson and what is one of the better offensive lines in the league in Atlanta.

I also think the misleading loss to the Panthers has provided value on the Falcons this week.  They were only outgained by 54 yards in the 31-point defeat.  But they were -5 in turnovers including a pick-6 by the Panthers.  Penix has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt with a 12-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his brief career.  He has always been underrated dating back to his time with Washington in college.  He shows out and keeps the QB job in Atlanta as long as he can stay healthy.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  There's a reason this line hasn't gone to Liberty -3, a telling sign that the +2.5 on Coastal Carolina is the right side.  It's easy to see why when you compare how both of these teams have fared thus far.

Liberty has opened 2-1 this season.  The Flames lost 20-13 as 6-point home dogs to a rebuilding James Madison with a first-year head coach in their opener.  More concerning was the 24-23 win as 28.5-point home favorites against FCS Gardner-Webb in Week 2.  That's the same Gardner-Webb team that lost 35-17 to Austin Peay and 17-13 to Wofford in FCS play prior to that 1-point loss to Liberty.

Helping erase that stench was a 51-15 home win over Ball State last week.  But that's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in all of college football at the FBS level.  But I don't think the Flames are automatically fixed.  They were a big preseason favorite to win Conference USA last season and proceeded to go 4-8 as one of the most disappointing teams in the country.

Liberty came into this season as the favorite to win Conference USA again.  I think it's just a reflection of head coach Jamey Chadwell, one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Keep in mind Chadwell parlayed his success at Coastal Carolina into this job at Liberty.  And I think that's a hidden revenge angle here for Coastal Carolina wanting to put one on him for leaving them.

Another hidden angle is that new Coastal Carolina head coach Ryan Beard was at Missouri State last season.  Well, Missouri State upset Liberty 21-17 as 8-point dogs.  So he knows the Flames inside and out after facing him last year, and that will work in Beard's advantage prepping for them again here on a short week.

I'm extremely impressed with Coastal Carolina this season despite the 1-2 record.  The schedule has been tough outside of a 45-7 home win over Fordham.  But what really stands out is just how competitive the Chanticleers were in road losses to Delaware and West Virginia.

The Chanticleers only lost 31-24 as 21-point underdogs at West Virginia.  They actually outgained the Mountaineers by 12 yards and 1.1 yards per play in that game.  That's the same WVU team that just upset Virginia last week as double-digit dogs.  Coastal Carolina lost 22-14 at Delaware as 5.5-point dogs last week.  They were only outgained by 10 yards and the YPP was dead even.  That's a veteran Delaware team that just took SEC foe Vanderbilt to the wire in a 35-26 road loss as 21.5-point dogs the week prior.

I love Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey who has a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has also rushed for 82 yards this season to provide a dual threat.  I hate Liberty QB Deshawn Purdue, who has a 56.3% completion percentage and only 14 rushing yards on 19 carries despite the easy schedule.  He is inaccurate and not a dual-threat.

Coastal Carolina has one of the best home atmospheres in the country for all Group of 6 teams.  This will be an electric atmosphere for a Thursday night home game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Coastal Carolina Thursday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 50

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  They literally brought everyone back on offense and will be just as potent again.

The Commanders get a healthy Jaden Daniels back at QB to start the season and he opens up everything for them offensively.  They added another weapon in Stefon Diggs, who had a big season for the Patriots last year.  The Commanders put up 22 points on the Eagles on the road last week which was a pretty impressive showing against one of the top defenses in the NFL.

The Commanders are in much worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

The Cowboys allowed 28 points and 394 yards to the Giants last week to show that their defense is not improved yet.  They lost two key starters in that loss to the Giants to add insult to injury.  LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker have been ruled out for this game.  There will be plenty of holes in this defense for the Commanders to exploit to contribute to this total.

But what I'm really expecting is a big bounce back from this Dallas offense.  They were held to 20 points against the Giants.  But they only possessed the ball twice in the 2H after the Giants did a great job of playing keep away with long scoring drives.  They only ran 52 plays for the entire game.  Look for the Cowboys to go more up-tempo this week, and they always thrive offensively at home indoors on the turf.

The Cowboys went 6-2 OVER at home last season with 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  That included their 44-22 beat down of the Commanders that saw 66 combined points.  The Cowboys are 12-3 OVER in Prescott's 15 career starts against the Commanders while going over the total by 5.6 points per game on average.  This total of 50 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/49ers UNDER 45.5

The 49ers enter the season very healthy defensively.  They have their three leaders in Bosa, Greenlaw and Warner all healthy to start the season.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state, and it showed in a 27-7 win over the Rams in Week 1 that saw just 34 combined points.  Many believe the Rams have the best offense in the NFL, and it's worth noting that was a healthy Rams offense as well that the 49ers just locked down.

But the 49ers have some serious questions with their playmakers.  They added the aging Mike Evans, and George Kittle is far from 100%. Deebo is past his prime as well.  They are without their best receiver in Pearsall, and the Aiyuk contract was one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  Kirk is out as well.  Things went from bad to worse when the 49ers lost another starting WR in rookie De'Zhaun Stribling in the opener.  He had a big preseason and earned his starting spot, but now he's on the IR.  And depth behind Kittle is a question now after Jake Tonges suffered an injury in Week 1 and has landed on IR.

The Dolphins may very well be the worst team in the NFL this season.  And a big reason for that is having arguably the worst offense in the NFL.  They paid QB Malik Willis too much and he is one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  He's a dead nuts UNDER QB with his dual-threat, and his legs may be a bigger weapon than his arm.  He also has zero proven playmakers outside RB De'Von Achane, who opposing defenses can key on.  The three starting WR's are Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell.  Gone is Mike McDaniel, and gone with him are WR's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  This offense is a shell of its former self.

But the Dolphins hired former Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach.  He will improve their defense, and Hafley knows his best chance to be competitive is to play like a triple-option team with time off possession and solid defense being the keys.  We saw that play out in Week 1 in a 27-13 loss to the Raiders that saw just 40 combined points and stayed under the 40.5-point total.  The Dolphins ran just 45 plays for 259 yards in the loss.  But the defense was solid, holding the Raiders to 290 yards and 4.3 per play.

The 49ers are 13.5-point favorites in this game.  They just want to get in and get out.  I can see this game playing out similar to the Rams game where they got a big lead and really sat on it, moved the sticks and ran out the clock.  This will be an extremely run-heavy game plan for the 49ers with all of their injuries at WR.  They will shut down the Dolphins, and this feels like another 27-13 type game similar to the one Miami just played with the Raiders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary now with Downs.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season.

Few teams are in worse shape than the Washington Commanders coming into the season.  Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.  That seems like ages ago now.  He went from 69% completions in '24 to 60.6% in '25, and his yards per carry dropped from 6.0 to 4.8.  He benefited a lot from Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in '24, and now he'll have a new coordinator in David Blough this season.

The problem is the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in football.  They are relying on aging players at the skill positions in McLaurin and Diggs.  Daniels is also returning from an injury-plagued season as well and probably won't risk running as much, which takes away one of his biggest weapons.

The Commanders may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Cowboys after a 28-20 loss to the Giants on the road on National TV on Sunday Night Football.  The Giants did a good job of playing keep away from the Cowboys offense.  The Cowboys only had two second half possessions in the game.  Now the Cowboys go from being 3-point road favorites over the Giants, to only 3.5-point home favorites over the Commanders.  I have the Giants power rated higher than the Commanders, so this line is way off.

The Commanders are getting respect because they covered in a 24-22 road loss to the Eagles as 6-point dogs.  But the Commanders were held to 9 points through 3 quarters before making a desperate comeback in garbage time and padding their stats.  They scored two TD's in the final 10 minutes.  The Eagles got conservative and let them come back, which they have a tendency to do.  The Cowboys won't take their foot off the gas this week.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

Dak Prescott is 37-11 SU & 32-16 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  Prescott is 20-0 SU in his last 20 games as a home favorites.  The Cowboys are 20-1 SU & 17-4 ATS as home favorites in division games over the last 10 seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games against the Commanders over the last 10 seasons, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game on average.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Vikings/Bears NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Head coach Ben Johnson said in training camp that he wants to have the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.  He knew it was the 2013 Broncos and how many points per game (37.9) they scored in the interview.  He said I want shootouts, I want blowouts.

Johnson has the offense that can put up big points with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, QB Caleb Williams, and emerging young receivers in Burden and Odunze.  He also has one of the best TE tandems in the NFL in Loveland and Kmet, plus a great 1-2 punch in the backfield in Swift and Monangai.  This offense should thrive in Year 2 under Johnson.

The Bears are going to have to try and win shootouts this season because I expect their defense to be one of the worst in the league.  The Bears gave up big yards last season, but they were bailed out time and time again by a defense that forced a NFL-leading 33 turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bears are going to give up big points and yards this season.

My biggest play last Sunday was the Bears/Panthers OVER 46.5 and it was the easiest winner we will have all season.  The Bears beat the Panthers 59-37 for 96 combined points.  Oddsmakers have adjusted this total up a little as a result, but they haven't adjusted it enough.  I think we'll see all season that they can't set these Chicago totals high enough.

The Bears racked up 552 total yards and 8.1 per play against the Panthers, while allowing 478 yards and 8.0 per play.  Chicago came out of that game perfectly healthy and will be explosive again offensively this week.  The defense will continue to get shredded.  I don't think Carson Wentz is much of a downgrade from Kyler Murray, and he is every bit as good as Bryce Young who just torched Chicago.

In fact, the OVER went 5-0 in games started by Wentz last season.  He threw for over 300 yards in two of those starts including against the vaunted Steelers and Eagles defenses.  Wentz knows the system, and head coach Kevin O'Connell is one of the best offensive minds in the game and will get the most out of him.

The score says the Vikings were dominant in their 39-22 win over the Packers in Week 1.  But the defense had plenty of holes that the Packers exploited.  In fact, the Packers had 419 total yards and 6.7 yards per play against this Minnesota defense.  You can just imagine what the Bears are going to do to the Vikings this week.  I trust in Ben Johnson to out-scheme Brian Flores now that he's seen his defenses several times.  Both offenses will have plenty of success to top this 48-point total this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -8

I love backing Baker Mayfield with a chip on his shoulder.  The Browns kicked him to the curb in 2022 and signed Deshaun Watson to one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  General manager Andrew Berry is still calling the shots in Cleveland.  Mayfield will want to put one on the Browns today.

The Bucs have extra motivation to avoid an 0-2 start after a 'game' effort in Cincinnati in the opener.  The Bucs only lost 33-27 to a healthy, improved Bengals team this season.  And a deeper dive into the box score shows that the Bucs were the better team and should have won.  The Bucs were -3 in turnovers, and their four lost fumbles led to 24 points for the Bengals.  The Bucs averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 5.7 per play for the Bengals.

In fact, the Bucs are as healthy as they will be all season in Week 2.  No starters are out, and two are questionable with the potential return of WR Jalen McMillan.  CB Jacob Parrish is also questionable.  A big reason the Bucs struggled down the stretch last season is because they were so banged up.  The Bucs are full strength are one of the better teams in the NFC.

The Browns are full strength are a Bottom 5 team in the NFL and perhaps the worst team.  That showed in a 34-10 loss to the Jaguars last week in the heat.  The Browns trailed 31-0 early in the 3rd quarter before the Jaguars called off the dogs.  They even kicked a pity 26-yard FG to avoid the shutout, then scored another TD in the final two minutes in garbage time to make their stats not look as bad as it really was.  This was an absolute beat down at the hands of the Jaguars.

Deshaun Watson isn't an NFL QB.  The Browns are 1-7 in games in which Watson has started since 2024.  Their defense has taken a big drop off with the loss of Myles Garrett.  They got blasted in Week 1, and I think this is the team the oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough down for how bad they really are.  There's still line value to fade them in Week 2 and perhaps will be all season.

Amazingly, the Bucs have failed to cover the spread in 10 consecutive games dating back to last season.  That gives us a 'buy low' opportunity on them, especially after coming off a misleading loss against the Bengals in Week 1.  But the Bucs are 9-0-1 ATS in Week 2 over the last 10 seasons, covering the spread by 9.2 points per game.  They are 16-3 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 seasons as well.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots UNDER 42

Both the Steelers and Patriots are dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Throw in the fact that temps will be in the 50's in New England Sunday with a 60-80% chance of rain and the weather will aid us in cashing this UNDER 42 ticket.

The Patriots have an elite defense that they rode to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 17.9 points per game and 284.9 yards per game last season.  Drake Maye wasn't very impressive in the playoffs and was exposed.  The Patriots parted ways with his favorite target in Stefon Diggs, and replaced him with AJ Brown.  Well, Brown just suffered an injury in Week 1 against the Seahawks and is now on injured reserve.

The Patriots have one of the worst group of receivers in the NFL without Brown.  They have Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins listed as their starters.  They will likely try and ride their rushing attack until Brown returns because they are going to be limited in what they can do in the passing game.  We saw that against the Seahawks in their 13-10 loss.  Maye went 23-of-33 passing for 178 yards with one TD and 3 INT against Seattle.

They Steelers have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

It was another ugly showing in Week 1 with the Steelers beating the Falcons 20-13 for just 33 combined points.  And one of Pittsburgh's two touchdowns came on a Pick-6 by TJ Watt.  The Steelers managed just 264 total yards against a weak Atlanta defense.  Rodgers went 24-of-40 passing for 221 yards with one TD without an INT.  And the leading receiver was Michael Pittman, who had 3 receptions for 58 yards.  Well, Pittman is out for this game now with an injury suffered in Week 1.

The Patriots held the Seahawks to 13 points and 285 yards.  The Steelers held the Falcons to 13 points and 238 yards.  Both defenses are much further ahead than the offenses heading into Week 2, and both defenses will dominate this game again.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Ravens UNDER 47

This total has been inflated due to both the Saints and Ravens going over the total in their Week 1 games.  There will also be some weather in this game with a small chance of rain and 10-15 MPH winds throughout.  This total has been bet down since I released it but it hasn't been bet down enough.  It's good down to 45.

The Saints are coming off a 31-30 (OT) loss to the Lions.  That game saw 48 combined points at the end of regulation before both teams scored TD's in OT.  The Saints actually held the high-powered Lions in check last week holding them to 369 yards and 5.1 per play, which was 299 yards at the end of regulation before Detroit's 70-yard TD drive in OT.

The Saints had 469 yards, which is adjusted down to 389 at the end of regulation when you take away their TD drive in OT.  But the Saints benefited from the Lions playing a lot of prevent defense in the 2H trying to protect a 21-0 lead.  They also benefited from the fact that the Lions are decimated with injuries in their secondary and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  The Bills just hung 41 points on the Lions on Thursday.

No question the Ravens were impressive in their 41-23 win at Indianapolis in the opener.  What they did in the first half when they were fully healthy was mighty impressive.  They outscored the Colts 31-13 in the first half with Zay Flowers going off for 5 receptions for 150 yards and a TD.  At full strength, the Ravens may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.

But Flowers left the game in the 2nd quarter with a hamstring injury and has already been ruled out.  Fellow starting WR Ja'Kobi Lane suffered a fractured wrist in the win and has gone on IR.  LT Ronnie Stanley and LG John Simpson are both questionable.  The offense won't be nearly as dynamic without Flowers, and this is a solid New Orleans defense that can hold Baltimore in check.

The Saints didn't have veteran DE Cam Jordan in their opener against the Lions.  Jordan is back this week.  The only injury question for them defensively is LB Chase Young being questionable.  WR Chris Olave got banged up against the Lions and left the game several times.  He is questionable and won't be 100% even if he does play.  That's big with Olave going off for 10 receptions for 182 yards against the Lions.

Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL led by one of the best defensive minds in the NFL in Jesse Minter.  We saw the Chargers struggle defensively giving up 26 points to the Cardinals in their first game without Minter calling the plays.  And I think we see Baltimore's level of play elevated defensively with Minter calling the shots now.  They held the Colts to 251 yards and 4.9 per play in the opener, and this will be the best defense that Tyler Shough has faced in his young career.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +30.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this +30.5 ticket on Michigan State..  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result, which really favors the big underdog.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2 as 44.5-point favorites.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.

Most alarming is the fact that Notre Dame just cannot run the ball even against Wisconsin and Rice.  The Fighting Irish are averaging just 114.5 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry through two games.  They're going to need to run the ball in these likely sloppy conditions.  I think the fact that Notre Dame won and covered its first two games with misleading finals gives us a few extra points of value here on Michigan State.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Michigan State has been strong at the line of scrimmage which is a staple of Fitzgerald teams.  They are rushing for 204 yards per game and allowing just 89 rushing yards per game.  QB Alessio Milivojevic got his feet wet last season and has benefited from those extra reps.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

Fitzgerald won as a player at Notre Dame in 1995 as 28-point underdogs and as a coach in 2014 as 17-point dogs.  He is rarely this big of an underdog as a head coach.  In fact, this is the biggest spread in the 80-year history of the rivalry between MSU and ND.  It's simply too many points.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between Michigan State and Notre Dame.  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.  But Notre Dame held Rice to 128 total yards and 2.8 per play.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Notre Dame ranks 116th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.2 seconds.  Michigan State ranks 95th snapping the ball every 28.2 seconds.  This will be a defensive battle that stays UNDER this inflated 52.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* New Mexico/Oklahoma ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico +22

Jason Eck is flying under the radar as one of the best coaches in the country.  New Mexico hadn't been to a bowl game since 2016 when he took over last year.  He promptly led the Lobos to a 9-4 season despite just seven returning starters.  The four losses came to Michigan by 17, SJSU by 7, Boise State by 16 and Minnesota by 3 to prove they can hang with the big boys.

Eck brought back 11 starters this season including his son in LB Jaxton Eck, who was first-team All-Mountain West last year with 129 tackles.  Five of the top seven tacklers are back on defense.  I know they lost QB Jack Layne to a season-ending injury, but backup Luke Moga is a very talented Oregon transfer and is making the most of his opportunity.

New Mexico is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  The Lobos blasted Central Michigan 38-7 as 10.5-point favorites and Mercyhurt 70-7 as 42.5-point favorites.  The defense has been elite, holding CMU to 149 yards and 3.1 per play and Mercyhurt to 155 yards and 2.8 per play.  Moga is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio, and Scottre Humphrey has rushed for 174 yards and 3 TD.

Oklahoma has the same problems as last year.  The Sooners have an elite defense but a terrible offense.  Their 51-0 win over UTEP was misleading because UTEP missed three field goals, and Oklahoma scored 51 despite just 401 total yards.  The Sooners were exposed last week in a 17-10 loss at Michigan as 5.5-point favorites.

QB John Mateer is simply inaccurate.  He is completing just 56% of his passes through two games, and he hasn't been much of a dual-threat either with just 52 rushing yards on 16 carries and 3.3 per carry.  It has been alarming that Oklahoma cannot run the football with any consistency, either.  They are rushing for 135 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They just don't have the offense to cover these big numbers.

Oklahoma ranks 84th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  What helps make New Mexico competitive the last two seasons is slowing the game down and limiting possessions.  The Lobos rank 125th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 31.7 seconds.  They will try to shorten this game as well.

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Oklahoma.  After the big road game at Michigan last week, the Sooners now have two bigger games on deck the next two weeks against Georgia and Texas.  They will be concerned with getting players healthy going into those two brutal SEC games.  They'll be without their best WR in Trell Harris (6 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD) and their best LB in Kip Lewis, who led the team in tackles last season.  Starting LT Michael Fasusi is out as well.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on BYU/Colorado State UNDER 52.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between BYU and Colorado State tonight.  There is a 60% chance of rain at the start of the game which will make the field sloppy.  It will be tough sledding for both offenses, and this total of 52.5 is too high tonight as a result.

BYU is a dead nuts UNDER team with a heavy dose of rushing and an elite defense.  The Cougars went 12-2 last season led by a defense that allowed just 19.1 points per game, and a rushing attack that produced 178 rushing yards per game.  Seven starters are back on defense as this is one of the best defenses in the country.  Dual-threat QB Bear Bachmeir is back as well after rushing for 527 yards last season.

BYU ranked 123rd out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  They haven't been much faster this season, snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  They have been impressive defensively thus far holding Utah Tech to 7 points and 184 yards and Arizona to 17 points and 327 yards.  They have 76 rush attempts compared to just 48 pass attempts through two games.

Colorado State has a dual-threat QB as well and wants to run the ball this season.  They are rushing for 225 yards per game in consecutive wins over Wyoming and Southern Utah.  Their offense will certainly face more resistance against BYU, and a Colorado State defense that is loaded with solid transfer starters should be able to hold up against this mediocre Cougars offense.  Jim Mora brought several UConn transfers with him especially on defense, so they are used to the scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +18

Jim Mora is one of the better head coaches in the country.  He took UConn to three bowls in four years after just one bowl appearance in the previous 11 seasons combined for the program.  He brought several UConn transfers with him and had his choice of what job he wanted, and he chose Colorado State for a reason.

Mora has the Rams off and running opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while covering the spread by a combined 35.5 points.  They beat Wyoming 35-13 as 3-point favorites while outgaining them by 123 yards.  They beat Southern Utah 58-24 as 19.5-point favorites while outgaining them by 236 yards.

I like Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny at QB.  He was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of HS.  Hejny is a dual-threat, throwing for 539 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 124 yards anda. score while averaging 10.3 per carry.  The defense should be pretty good with six starts between transfers and returnees.

BYU is getting a lot of respect early in the season after making the Big 12 Championship Game last season.  The Cougars had a ton of breaks go their way in close games and I think they are overrated as a result.  They went 8-1 in Big 12 play despite only outgaining Big 12 opponents by 37 yards per game.  They were 4-0 in games decided by a TD or less.  When they really stepped up in class with their two meetings with Texas Tech, they lost by 22 and 27 points.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cougars now after opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season to improved to 12-4 ATS since the start of last season.  They beat Utah Tech 63-7 before beating Arizona 28-17 at home.  Arizona's best receiver was lost for the game in the 1st quarter and their offense wasn't the same after.  Yet another break for BYU.

But now the Cougars in in a sandwich spot and playing their first true road game this season.  They are coming off the big win over Arizona, and they have a road game against TCU on deck in Big 12 play.  Teams tend to have letdowns when they step out of conference in between conference games.  And this will be a great atmosphere for a Saturday night home game in Fort Collins for the Rams.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +18

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result will provide us line value o the 49ers moving forward.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

I took advantage of the value last week and backed Charlotte +47.5 against Ole Miss.  The Rebels didn't even score 48 points, beating Charlotte 41-9 as the cover was never in question.  Ole Miss only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards as it was much closer than the final score would suggest.  Charlotte put up 322 yards on this Ole Miss defense.

It's time to 'sell high' on Appalachian State this week.  The Mountaineers are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Maine 55-3 as 20.5-point favorites before upsetting East Carolina 27-24 as 6.5-point road dogs.  Maine is a terrible FCS team, and ECU is a rebuilding team that lost almost everyone from last year.  And they were outgained by ECU by 21 yards.

There's not a lot to like about this rebuilding App State team, either.  The Mountaineers only brought back four starters this season and only added one previous starter in the transfer portal.  It's a bad spot for the Mountaineers too with NC State on deck, a huge game against a Power 4 opponent they could easily be looking ahead to.  Either way, I don't think they should be favored by more than two touchdowns against this improved 49ers team.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +36

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UTEP +36 ticket against Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.  I look for it to be a low-scoring, defensive battle which favors the big underdog catching points.

The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They got a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 as 5.5-point dogs last week.  And after that big effort, they have their Big 12 opener against Iowa on deck, making this the ultimate sandwich spot.  They just want to get in and get out with a win.  They won't be concerned with running the score up.

This Michigan offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes, and he is being used a lot more in the running game now because the passing offense is broken.  I think Michigan will be even more predictable this week not wanting to get Underwood hurt thus not running him as much, which will limit the offense even more.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They also missed three field goals in that game, so they moved the ball but couldn't capitalize.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  I think they can hold up against Michigan's subpar rushing attack that is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  There will be fewer possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Wolverines to pull away as a result.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep the Miners within the number.  Bet UTEP Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP/Michigan UNDER 49.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 49.5 ticket between UTEP and Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.

Michigan is 2-0 UNDER in two games and both flew under the total.  The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 for 25 combined points only after getting a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 for 27 combined points last week.

This Michigan defense held WMU to 221 yards and 3.3 per play.  They held Oklahoma to 289 yards and 4.7 per play.  But their own offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep this thing UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Central Michigan UNDER 39

This is one of the lowest totals on the board this week but it's not low enough.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket between Wyoming and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 50's with a 50% chance of rain throughout.  These are two of the slowest, most run-heavy offenses in college football that will also aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket.

Central Michigan ranked 134th out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 30.8 seconds.  Central Michigan enters Year 2 under Matt Drinkall who guided Army to the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best offensive line as the O-Line coach there.  He believes in running the football with a Power Spread offense that takes advantage of a QB's running ability.  The Chippewas are the rare team that still uses a fullback, which alone screams dead nuts UNDER team.

The Chippewas were indeed an UNDER team last season scoring just 22.5 points per game on offense and allowing just 23.5 points per game on defense.  They did a great job of shortening games to stay competitive and were rewarded with a trip to a bowl game in Drinkall's first season.  It's not a fun brand to play, but it is a way to be competitive.

The offense will struggle again this season with the losses of their top three receivers and their top two RB's.  The defense should be solid again with several quality transfers brought in by Drinkall and he will have his players in place now.

Central Michigan lost 38-7 to New Mexico in the opener. The offense was held to 149 yards and 3.1 per play.  The defense played better than the score showed holding the Lobos to 364 yards.  The Chippewas went on to beat lowly Colgate 13-10 for just 23 combined points. They managed just 276 yards on offense while holding Colgate to 219 yards on defense.  The only reason they are 68th in tempo this season is because they had to speed it up playing from behind against New Mexico.

Speaking of woeful offenses, Wyoming lost 35-13 to Colorado State in the opener and was held to 273 yards.  Wyoming went on to a 21-13 win over FCS Northern Colorado, getting held to 304 yards.  Wyoming ranks 129th out of 138 teams this season in tempo snapping the ball every 33.5 seconds.

Wyoming has 68 rush attempts compared to 45 pass attempts this season.  Central Michigan has 72 rush attempts compared to 37 pass attempts.  The clock will keep moving, the defenses will hold the offenses in check, and the weather will help keep this UNDER the 39-point total today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Georgia -24.5

The Georgia Bulldogs are a wagon this season and a legit national title contender.  They brought back 12 starters from last season and added as much talent as anyone.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season taking no mercy.  They beat Tennessee State 63-3 and Western Kentucky 70-20.

Now they will take no mercy on Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are the worst team in the SEC this season.  They have a first-year head coach in Ryan Silverfield, who will now pay for making jokes about Georgia while at Memphis last season, criticizing their off-field speedings and arrest issues.

Arkansas beat North Alabama 31-14 as 40.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 23.5 points.  North Alabama went on to lose to SE Alabama 30-25.  Arkansas then lost 43-10 as 12.5-point dogs at Utah, failing to cover by 20.5 points.  The books just can't catch up to how bad this team is, and they haven't caught up this week, either.

QB KJ Jackson has been terrible completing just 55.1% of his passes with a 3-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 5.9 per attempts.  He isn't much of a dual-threat either with 3.6 yards per carry.  Top RB's Russell (2.8 YPC) and Smith (2.2 YPC) can't get anything going on the ground to help him out.  And keep in mind these numbers include a game against North Alabama.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green/Iowa State UNDER 44.5

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back last week with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

Now Iowa State plays a Bowling Green team with one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Falcons lost 20-13 to FCS Tarleton State in the opener.  They lost 56-7 to Nebraska last week and were held to 169 yards and 3.5 per play.  That's an elite Nebraska offense that has lit up its first two opponents.  Bowling Green won't have to face anything like that this week.

Both teams play at a snail's pace which will aid us here.  Iowa State ranks 133rd out of 138 teams in seconds per play (34.3), while Bowling Green ranks 131st at 34 seconds per play.  The forecast could also come into play with a good chance of rain throughout the game and 10 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Houston/Texas Tech FOX No-Brainer on Houston +7.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abiline Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech last week.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State last week as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

It's rare we get the opportunity to compare common opponents this early in the season, but we have that luxury here.  Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 as 20.5-point home favorites in the opener.  But the stats show Houston was pretty dominant in that game outgaining Oregon State 533 to 402, or by 131 total yards.  So Texas Tech was outgained by 120 yards by Oregon State while Houston outgained the Beavers by 131 yards.

It's easy to see why Houston is actually the better team this season.  The Cougars are one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They returned 11 starters and added another 8 starters in the transfer portal, giving them 19 starters in all.  Senior QB Conner Weigman is the big returnee.  He completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 700 yards and 11 scores last season.

Weigman also has his top receiver in Amare Thomas back after 67 receptions for 966 yards and 12 TD last season.  The offensive line is loaded with two returning starters plus the additions of a 1st-team All-MAC transfer from Toledo, a first-team All-AAC transfer from Tulane and a Miami Ohio transfer.  Houston allowed 22.9 points per game in 2024 and 22.8 points per game in 2025 in Willie Fritz's first two years on the job.  He always has an elite defense, and that is no different this year.

This will be a short week for both teams which really favors Houston.  While Texas Tech was life and death on the road at Oregon State last week, Houston was crushing Southern 77-6.  The Cougars were able to rest their starters in the 2H and their defense was only on the field for 42 plays.  They basically had a bye week and will be fresh for this game.

Another factor is that it is expected to be windy Friday night with 10-15 MPH winds blowing across the field.  I think the team that runs the football better will have that advantage, and that will clearly be Houston.  Texas Tech shockingly is averaging just 164 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry despite the soft schedule.  Houston is averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 7.2 per carry with a similar schedule.  

The Cougars rushed for 228 yards on Oregon State while the Red Raiders rushed for 155 yards on the Beavers on 5 more attempts than Houston to compare.  The Cougars are only allowing 10 rushing yards per game and 0.4 per carry this season which ranks 1st in the country in both categories.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Lions/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo -4.5

The Buffalo Bills went on the road and picked up an impressive 36-31 win at Houston in Week 1.  They put up 36 points and 8.2 yards per play against a Houston defense that many believe is the best in the NFL.  You can only imagine what they are going to do to this Detroit defense this week.

There will be no letdown for the Bills as this is their home opener in a new stadium.  It will be a raucous atmosphere and one of the best atmospheres in the NFL this season.  And the Bills got out of that Houston game very healthy and will be ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Lions, who will be down three starting offensive linemen this week.  Their offense managed just 369 yards and 5.1 per play against the Saints that was aided even by OT where they drove down and scored a TD.

More concerning is a Detroit defense that allowed 469 yards and 5.8 per play to the Saints, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  The Lions are without two starters in the secondary in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, plus CB D.J. Reed is banged up.  Tyler Shough lit up this Detroit defense for 410 passing yards and 3 passing TD and the Saints even dropped a lot of balls in the 1H or it could have been worse.

You can imagine what Josh Allen is going to do to this Lions defense.  The Bills hired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and he is passing a lot more this season and unleashing his best weapon in Allen.  It was amazing to see what Allen can do when he throws it more and has better weapons with the addition of DJ Moore and having a healthy TE in Kincaid to get the ball to.  The last time he faced the Lions he put up 48 points on them while accounting for 430 yards and 4 TD himself.

This is a terrible spot for the Lions.  They basically played an extra quarter with OT against the Saints last week as both teams scored TD's in the extra session.  Most concerning is a tired Detroit defense that was on the field for 81 plays against the Saints, and basically the entire 2H and OT.  Teams off an OT game and on a short week are 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games, including 3-16 ATS when on the road since 2000.  The spot really favors a Buffalo blowout.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Syracuse/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +10.5

Syracuse is coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Orange lost 21-18 at home as 3.5-point favorites to Cal.  They lost despite outgaining Cal 436 to 249, or by 187 total yards.  They missed two field goals and settled for two more field goals in the red zone.

But the biggest difference was being -3 in turnovers, including a pick-6 in the 4th quarter that gave Cal its first lead of the game.  The Orange also had 15 penalties for 132 yards against Cal.  They have had two punt return TD's called back by penalties this season.  That misleading final has provided us value to back the Orange as double-digit underdogs to Pitt this week.

Syracuse has a bye on deck next week, so it will be 'all in' this week to try and get a victory knowing it has two weeks off after this.  The Orange beat New Hampshire 66-3 in the opener so should still be pretty fresh even on a short week.

I love Syracuse QB Steve Angeli, who returned from injury this season.  He was leading the FBS in passing yards last season before going out with injury n his 4th start against Clemson.  Angeli threw for 1,317 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his first four starts leading the Orange to a 3-1 record against a brutal schedule.  They beat UConn and upset Clemson as 17-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came to Tennessee on a neutral.

Their season was wrecked after the Angeli injury as the Orange went 0-8 in their final eight games as Rickie Collins was a big downgrade from Angeli at QB.  Keep in mind Fran Brown led Syracuse to a 10-3 season in his first year with a healthy Kyle McCord at QB all season.  Brown knows how to coach up a defense and has six of his top seven tacklers back this season.  The Orange are allowing just 204 yards per game and 3.4 yards per play through two games this season.  Cal has an explosive offense this season so to hold the Golden Bears to just 249 total yards is no small feat.

Pitt is getting too much credit for its 59-14 win over Miami Ohio in the opener.  More concerning was the 12-7 win over UCF last week as 7-point home favorites.  The Panthers only averaged 4.4 yards per play on offense against UCF.  They have a quality defense, but I think their offense is over-hyped.

Some weather is expected in this game so Pitt won't be able to throw it all over the yard.  There's a 60-70% chance of rain in this one.  Pitt's weakness is running the ball, averaging just 134.5 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry despite the weak schedule thus far.  Syracuse is averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Syracuse is also stopping the run allowing 63.5 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry thus far.

Even a poor Syracuse team last year with Rickie Collins at QB played Pitt tough.  Syracuse was only outgained by 43 yards by Pitt in a misleading 30-13 loss.  Pitt benefited from a 66-yards punt return TD and 3 INT from Collins.  Syracuse really shut down QB Mason Heintschel even in perfect conditions in the dome.  Heintschel only threw for 143 yards and one INT without a TD.  I think they can hold this Pitt offense in check in the weather and stay within single-digits if not pull off the outright upset in the rematch.  Bet Syracuse Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44

The UNDER is 44-22 in Week 1 games in the NFL over the past four seasons.  Teams come into the season rusty offensively with a shorter preseason now.  Defenses tend to be ahead of offenses, and that proved to be the case especially in primetime with the Seahawks winning 13-10 for 23 combined points over the Pats and the 49ers winning 27-7 for 34 combined pints against the Rams.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between the Chiefs and Broncos.  In fact, the UNDER is 6-0 in th last six meetings finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  These teams know each other inside and out, and it tends to favor defense over offense as these are two of the best defenses in the league.

Both starting QB's will be returning from injury today.  Patrick Mahomes didn't play at all in the preseason, and Bo Nix played sparingly.  Mahomes is 9 months removed from ACL surgery and probably won't use his legs as much this season as a result, and that's a big weapon taken away.  Nix is returning from season-ending ankle injury suffered int he playoffs last year.

The Broncos rode their defense to the AFC Championship Game last season.  They allowed just 18.5 points per game, 283.4 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play last season.  The Chiefs had a championship caliber defense as well, holding foes to 19.3 points per game and 301.5 yards per game.

Both offenses held their teams back last year.  And while both may be improved as the season goes on, I don't expect it to show in Week 1.  Denver averaged 23.2 points per game last season while Kansas City after just 21.3 points per game in a disastrous 6-11 campaign.  The Chiefs will be without LT Josh Simmons, which will allow Denver's league-best pass rush to put pressure on Mahomes all game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary, and LB DeMarvion Overshown is healthy to start the season.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary with S Hooker and CB Bland to go along with Downs.  This should be the most improved defense in the NFL this season.

The Giants got a lot of headlines for hiring John Harbaugh.  But he may be past his prime and failed to live up to the lofty expectations in Baltimore.  The Ravens gave him a Top 5 roster year in and year out and he was only able to win one Super Bowl.  Now Harbaugh won't benefit from having a top GM like Baltimore did.  The Giants are much more of a mess due to the situation the GM put them in.

While there is talent on this young Giants' roster, it's going to take some time for Harbaugh to craft the team he wants.  It won't just automatically click in Week 1.  I have serious questions about the talent on offense.  QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo are injuries waiting to happen.  Speaking of injuries, WR Malik Nabers is questionable for this game, and he is far and away their most talented pass-catcher.  I rate Dallas' offense about 7 points better than New York's offense this season.

No question there is talent on this Giants' defense in the form of LB Burns, LB Reese and LB Carter.  But the Giants were pretty healthy defensively last season and were still terrible.  They allowed 25.8 points per game, 359.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Most notably they gave up 145.3 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground, and I think they will have trouble stopping the run again.  I also think the secondary is worse off this season than it was last.

A big reason for the Chiefs not living up to expectations in recent seasons was offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy leaving, and being replaced by Matt Nagy.  I just think the game has passed Nagy by.  One of the worst hires of the offseason was the Giants getting Nagy to be their offensive coordinator.  So the Giants are learning a new scheme, and a predictable scheme at that.  There will be growing pains for the offense in Week 1.  I expect the Cowboys to hit the ground running with the chemistry they have in place.

Dak Prescott is 37-10 SU & 32-15 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  That includes a 14-3 SU mark against the Giants in his career.  The Cowboys are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Giants with one of those losses coming when they sat their starters early in Week 18 last year.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Panthers OVER 46.5

Head coach Ben Johnson said in training camp that he wants to have the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.  He knew it was the 2013 Broncos and how many points per game (37.9) they scored in the interview.  He said I want shootouts, I want blowouts.

Johnson has the offense that can put up big points with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, QB Caleb Williams, and emerging young receivers in Burden and Odunze.  He also has one of the best TE tandems in the NFL in Loveland and Kmet, plus a great 1-2 punch in the backfield in Swift and Monangai.  This offense should thrive in Year 2 under Johnson.

The Bears are going to have to try and win shootouts this season because I expect their defense to be one of the worst in the league.  The Bears gave up big yards last season, but they were bailed out time and time again by a defense that forced a NFL-leading 33 turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bears are going to give up big points and yards this season.

The Panthers made a subtle change in the offseason that is going to make them more potent offensively.  Head coach Dave Canales gave over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik.  Both are set on playing with more tempo.  Carolina snapped the ball 100 times last season with one second or fewer on the play clock, the 5th-highest rate in the league and 3 times more than the year prior.  Working up against the play clock really hurt the offense last season.

Idzik made these comments in the media. "We have to press on our end the urgency of getting to the line of scrimmage, there’s a reason for it to try to get the defense to undress as fast as possible so we’re not up against the clock. That is definitely a huge trend that we keep track of. And we don’t want to be on the back end of snapping that thing with one second on the clock every time because that’ll be the O-lineman’s worst friend, when the defensive line knows, ‘OK, they either snap it now, or they’re a delay of game.’ (The defense) can roar off the ball. We want to stay ahead of the clock and continue to be in an attacking nature as much as we can.”

I like the pieces QB Bryce Young has to work with and should have a ton of chemistry in Year 3 with them.  But the defense is going to be a problem for the Panthers as it was last season as well.  There just isn't a ton of talent on this defense as a whole.  And they will be without starting LB Patrick Jones to start the season to boot, which kind of counters the fact that they brought in a solid LB in Devin Lloyd.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no rain in Carolina.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Steelers UNDER 41.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers really profile as a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

The Atlanta Falcons have an improved defense which made them more competitive last season.  But they are a mess on offense.  They expected either Tua or Penix to start for them, and both are below-average QB's in this league.  But both are hurt to start the season, meaning they will give the keys to 3rd-string QB Cooper Rush.

Rush was dealing with back spasms Saturday but is expected to be good to go.  Rush is a dead nuts UNDER QB who doesn't stretch the field and is a dink and dunk QB who tries to limit mistakes.  That's the perfect 'UNDER' QB.  I expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and the rushing attack early in the season until they get their QB situation figured out.

Both teams are learning new offenses early in the season with new head coach Mike McCarthy for the Steelers and new head coach Kevin Stefanski for the Falcons.  I think there will be growing pains for both offenses, and Stefanski is accustomed to trying to win with a limited offense dating back to his time in Cleveland.  He is more than happy to play in defensive battles, which is precisely what this will be.  

Defenses are ahead of offenses in Week 1 because of the shortened preseason.  In fact, UNDERS are now 44-22 in Week 1 over the past five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on NDSU/Air Force UNDER 47.5

The clock is going to be constantly running in this matchup between two teams who are run-heavy on offense.  Air Force runs the triple-option so that's self-explanatory, and NDSU has always been a run-heavy program.

NDSU beat Jacksonville State 33-7 in the opener with 44 rush attempts and Fordham 38-0 last week with 43 rush attempts.  It's clear the Bison have an elite defense again.  They have allowed just 52 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry through two games.  They will be able to hold up against Air Force's triple-option.

I think the Falcons will have one of the most improved defenses in the country this season.  They return eight starters and should get back to being the type of unit that allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five consecutive seasons from 2019-23.  Last season was the aberration, not the norm for this Troy Calhoun defense.

Air Force beat Duquesne 34-0 in the opener behind 71 rush attempts.  The defense held Duquesne to 107 total yards and 2.4 yards per play.  These Air Force totals are inflated early in the season because they played in so many shootouts last year with a poor defense.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER 47.5 here.  There will also be double-digit winds blowing across the field in this game that will affect passing and kicking games for both teams and help keep it UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Texas ABC No-Brainer on Texas ML -118

Texas will be out for revenge on Ohio State Saturday.  The Buckeyes knocked them out of the playoffs in 2024 as Ohio State went on to win the national title.  They also won 14-7 at home in the season opener in 2025.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.

Texas outgained Ohio State 336-203 in that 14-7 defeat, or by 133 total yards.  And that was on the road in the Horseshoe.  Arch Manning improved by leaps and bounds after that game and finished the season playing up to his potential.  He is primed for a big season and is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason.

Now Texas gets Ohio State at home at night in Austin in what will be one of the best home atmospheres of all-time, which is saying something for a program this rich in tradition.  Texas has never been better prepared to beat Ohio State than it is for the season opener this season, spending all offseason thinking about revenge and working even harder to get it.

"The biggest common thread in both games was we essentially played behind," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday about the last two meetings with Ohio State. "And that's an uncomfortable feeling when you feel like you're having to play catch-up. You have to take a few more risks."

"It's not all the time you get a second chance to play another team after a rough loss," Manning said Monday. "We're all excited for the opportunity. I think we've all grown mentally and physically."

Texas blasted Texas State 59-7 in the opener as 29.5point favorites.  That's a Texas State team that is one of the best Group of 6 teams in all of college football and brought a lot back from last season, especially offensively.  To hold that offense to just 7 points is a sign of things to come for this elite Texas defense.

Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 as 49.5-point favorites in its opener.  The Buckeyes tacked on a late TD to try and cover the spread late.  That's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in the entire country and offered nothing offensively.  I would not be surprised of Ball State proves to be the worst team in the MAC by season's end.

Ohio State has a solid offense but it's worth noting it lost coordinator Brian Hartline to South Florida.  There will be some growing pains early with new coordinator Arthur Smith.  The bigger concern is a defense that lost 7 NFL draft picks including 3 first-round picks.  Only four starters are back and they lose each of their top five tacklers.  They will get tested in a big way this week by Manning and arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country.  Plus RB Hollywood Smothers, a NC State transfer, is absolutely electric and gives them a viable rushing attack.  Bet Texas on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +47.5

While I like Charlotte this season, this more of a early season fade against Ole Miss after making the semifinals of the college football playoff last season.  Nobody expected Pete Golding to be able to take the Rebels on a deep run after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.  But the Rebels played with a chip on their shoulder and were able to retain their coordinators for the playoff run to keep continuity.

That continuity is gone now with a new offensive coordinator in John David Baker and a new defensive coordinator in Bryan Brown.  The Rebels will be fine offensively with QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy back, but they won't match last year's numbers.  They lose their top two receivers and their starting RT and LT, so they could have problems keeping Chambliss protected this season.

The Rebels lose 11 of their top 15 tacklers from last season defensively.  While there is a lot of talent here from the transfer portal, I can't see Ole Miss being as dominant as they have been defensively the past couple seasons.  Expectations were high after a playoff run, but I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Rebels here again after fading them successfully with Louisville +7 in a 41-38 win by Ole Miss in the opener.

Ole Miss came away with that game with serious injury concerns with RB Kewan Lacy and WR Deuce Alexander both leaving the game with injuries among others.  Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 8 TD last season while Alexander was their only returning receiver with 44 receptions for 684 yards and 2 TD.  He has 5 receptions for 159 yards and two TD against Louisville and was a big reason they won the game.  

I would bet surprised if Golding doesn't elect to sit his injured players against Charlotte knowing they can win this game without them.  That's especially the case with the biggest game of the season on deck against LSU and Lane Kiffin.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot coming off the big National TV win over Louisville at the buzzer last week, and with LSU on deck next week.  Ole Miss isn't worried about covering this game against Charlotte.  They just want to win and advance.

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result has provided us with extra line value this week.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

As bad as Charlotte was last season, the 49ers covered in a similar spot in a 35-3 loss at Georgia as 43.5-point dogs.  Now we are catching 47.5 with an even better Charlotte team, and against an Ole Miss team that isn't as good as that Georgia team was.  That's especially the case with all the injuries the Rebels are dealing with right now.  This game will be much closer than this line indicates.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oregon State +26

Oregon State is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 2-10 season last year.  First-year head coach Jamarcus Shepard has earned this opportunity after being an assistant at Alabama, Washington and Washington State prior.  Offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen is from the Kalen DeBoer tree following him from Washington to Alabama before coming here, a noted massive Oregon State fan.  And Shepard was able to nab a veteran defensive coordinator in Mike MacIntyre, one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.

The cupboard was not bare for Shepard with 10 returning starters.  He brought in Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson and started him right away over incumbent Maalik Murphy.  Atkinson went 29-of-48 for 376 yards and a TD while also rushing for a score in a 33-20 loss to Houston as 20.5-point road dogs in the opener.  That is a Houston team that is a Big 12 title contender off a 10-3 season last year with a ton of returning talent and transfers.

In fact, I think Houston will be every bit as good as Texas Tech this season.  The Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abiline Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.  Abilene Christian lost 21-14 to lowly Lamar the week prior.

Now Texas Tech hits the road for the first time.  They beat Oregon State 45-14 at home last season for a 31-point victory.  It will be a different story in Corvallis with the Beavers giving the Red Raiders are much stiffer test this time around.  The talent on these teams is much closer than this spread would indicate.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 40.5

Death, taxes and the UNDER in the Cy-Hawk rivalry between Iowa State and Iowa.  The UNDER is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.  Iowa State and Iowa have combined for 29, 39, 33 and 17 points in their last four meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 2026 version.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  So they can't run the ball but they can stop the run, and that will come in handy against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes rushed for 289 yards in their 40-0 win over Northern Illinois in the opener.  They are going with two different QB's as neither has emerged, which is a bad sign for another poor Iowa QB performance this season.  They will rely on their run game, and I think Iowa State can hold up enough to limit Iowa to less than 30 points.

I don't see Iowa State scoring more than 10 points against this elite Iowa defense.  The Hawkeyes didn't allow a single first down in the first 10 drives to Northern Illinois in the shutout win.  They did give up some yardage late in garbage time, but still held NIU to just 120 total yards and 2.2 yards per play.  This is yet another elite Phil Parker defense in Iowa City.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Georgia Southern/Clemson UNDER 56.5

Clemson has an elite defense every year and that will prove to be the case again this season.  But the offense may be the worst of the Dabo Swinney era.  Clemson was held to 3 points in the first 57 minutes against LSU before getting a TD in garbage time.

The Tigers managed just 8 first downs for the entire game.  Starting QB Christopher Vizzina went 10-of-16 passing for 83 yards, and backup Reynolds went 4-of-6 for 22 yards.  No question the Tigers will have more success offensively against Georgia Southern than LSU, but they aren't going to hang 50 on them.

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in four straight.  That's after a 31-0 win over Charleston Southern in the opener.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, QB French French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.  I could see Clemson coming close to shutting out Georgia Southern today to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -11.5

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons there.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava and three of the top six tacklers on defense.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfer come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.  He absolutely crushed in the transfer portal, and I expect the Bruins to hit the ground running this season.

UCLA lit up Cal 45-24 in the opener behind 461 total yards and 8.5 yards per play from the offense.  Nico threw for 184 yards and rushed for a score in the win.  Anthony Woods and Wayne Knight combined for 189 rushing yards and five scores on just 16 carries.  They held what is a very talented Cal offense to just 4.7 yards per play, outgaining them by 3.8 yards per play.

San Diego State was led by its defense last season that returned 10 starters.  The Aztecs allowed just 15.4 points per game in 2025 after allowing 29.6 points per game in 2024.  But they lost their stud defensive coordinator in the offseason, and new coordinator Demetrius Sumler has his hands full.  San Diego State only returns three starters on defense while losing eight of its top nine tacklers.

SDSU beat FCS Portland State 53-20 in the opener, failing to cover as massive 38.5-point favorites.  The Aztecs only outgained Portland State by 18 total yards in the win.  It was a very misleading final and a much closer game than the 33-point margin would indicate.  We'll take advantage of that misleading final which has given us ample value to back UCLA.

San Diego State does have eight starters back on offense and figures to be better with all of its top skill players returning.  However, this was a poor offense last season scoring 26.4 points per game after scoring 21.3 points per game in 2024.  And I think they have a low ceiling because they are sticking with Jayden Dengal as their QB, and I think he's one of the worst QB's in the country.  Denegal only completed 58.8% of his passes for 1,807 yards with a 9-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  He also doesn't offer much with his legs rushing for just 99 yards all season last year.  UCLA is the much superior team and it will show on the field and the scoreboard in its home opener Saturday night.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/North Texas UNDER 57.5

UNLV lost 27-21 at home to Memphis in Week 0 for just 48 combined points.  The offense looked good for nearly 3 quarters before losing two starting offensive linemen to injury, including their center.  They could not do anything on offense after losing their center Austin Boyd, and they continue having troubles offensively without him.

That proved to be the case again last week as UNLV beat Hawaii 21-6 for just 27 combined points.  UNLV had 364 yards but held Hawaii to 294 yards.  They rushed 41 times against Memphis and 43 times against Hawaii.  They clearly want to run the football with dual-threat QB Jackson Arnold, who is much more dangerous with his legs than with his arm.

North Texas underwent one of the biggest makeovers of the offseason.  Head coach Eric Morris and his fast-paced offense left for Oklahoma State and brought all of his best players with him.  That left the cupboard very bare for new head coach Neil Brown, who was fired at West Virginia.  Zero starters returned for the Mean Green as Brown had to do everything through the transfer portal.

QB Tayven Jackson was a decent get but he's on his 4th different program for a reason because he's just not that good.  Brown brought WVU transfer Jahiem White with him from WVU at RB, and he wants to be a run-heavy offense to utilize the dual-threat ability of Jackson plus White.  So we have two run-heavy teams here to keep the clock moving.

One other factor here is that there will be 10-15 MPH winds and temps in the 100's in Denton on Saturday.  I think both offenses will go slower due to the heat to try and stay as fresh as possible to make it through this game.  And the passing and kicking games for both teams will be affected by the wind.  That makes for an easy UNDER here.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -120

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the best young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreakers by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  Things are looking up for Texas State in 2026.

I think we are getting some line value here after Texas State got blasted 59-7 at Texas in the opener.  But that was one of the most misleading finals of Week 1.  The Bobcats were only outgained by 167 yards, which isn't bad going up against one of the best teams in the country in Texas.  They put up 349 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense.

While Texas State was playing one of the best teams in the country, UTSA was playing one of the worst teams in FCS in UTRGV in Week 1.  The Miners won 45-16 in a very misleading final.  They only outgained UTRGV by 105 yards in the win.  They allowed 422 yards, and this UTSA defense is clearly a weakness once again this season.

UTSA went 7-6 last season thanks to a 5-2 record in home/neutral games.  But the Miners have been awful on the road, going 2-10 SU in true road games over the last two seasons.  And their two road wins last season weren't impressive at all as they beat Colorado State 17-16 as 4-point favorites and lowly Charlotte 28-7 as 17-point favorites.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Temple, lost by 38 at North Texas, lost by 32 at USF and lost by 18 at Texas A&M.  They went 0-6 in true road games in 2024 with two upset losses.

UTSA only brings back two starters on defense this season, and defense has been its weakness the last few seasons.  They allowed 30.1 points per game in 2024 and 28.8 points per game in 2025.  They do return six starters on offense including QB Owen McCown, but they lose leading rusher Robert Henry (1,045 yards, 9 TD) and leading receiver McCuin (726 yards, 8 TD).  They lose four of their top five receivers overall.

Texas State beat UTSA 49-10 at home in 2024.  Texas State beat UTSA 43-36 on the road in 2025.  Jackson threw for 286 yards and rushed for two scores in the win.  McCown was dreadful, going 23-of-43 passing for 219 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as the Bobcats are once again the superior team in 2026.  Bet Texas State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rice +44.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

After playing at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin, and with Michigan State on deck, this is a sandwich spot for Notre Dame.  I don't think they will motivated to beat Rice by 45-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated spread.  I also don't think Notre Dame is explosive enough offensively to win by this margin this season.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.  It's worth noting ND has key injuries to S Tae Johnson, NT Jason Onye and C Ashton Craig who will all likely be sitting out this unimportant game in the grand scheme  of things.  Coaches will play it smart with their injuries.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Senior QB Jacurri Brown was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  He made 3 starters for Miami and two starts for UCF before coming here.  This is his last stand and he wants to make the most of it.  

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  And when I'm getting 44.5 points, I want my team to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for Notre Dame to cover.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/Notre Dame UNDER 55.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  This should have been more of a 27-13 game for 40 combined points given the stats.  And this total is inflated as a result.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run-heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  They only attempted 10 passes for the entire game.  And when I'm backing an UNDER, I want teams to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  Notre Dame will be happy to run the ball and the clock in the 2H and just get out of there with a win.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for it to go over.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -3.5

Army returned 11 starters this season which is quite a few for a service academy.  Jeff Monken has the Black Knights as one of the most consistent winning programs in the country and it's not about to stop any time soon.  Army has finished .500 or better in six consecutive seasons.

What's really exciting for Army is that eight starters return on offense, including QB Cale Hellums.  He rushed for 1,223 yards and 18 TD last season.  Four starters are back along the offensive line and this is a Joe Moore Award contender once again after winning the award for the nation's best offensive line in 2024 just two seasons ago.

Hellums and that dominant offensive line did some work in Week 1 paving the way for 569 rushing yards and 10.0 yards per carry in a 59-3 win over Bryant.  Army held Bryant to 165 yards and 3.1 per play.  The Black Knights always have an elite defense, and that will be the case again.  They have allowed 23 points per game or fewer in six consecutive seasons.

But while I'm high on Army, this is as much of a fade of South Florida as anything.  The Bulls lost head coach Alex Golesh to Auburn and he took all his best players with him.  The Bulls only have three returning starters and a new head coach in Brian Hartline, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State prior.  This is a massive rebuilding job for Hartline, and after Week 1 it's easy to see this is going to be one of the worst teams in the country.

South Florida beat Florida International 19-9 in Week 1 as 14.5-point home favorites.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  South Florida managed just 208 total yards and 3.7 yards per play, while allowing 381 total yards and 5.1 per play to Florida International.  The Bulls actually got outgained by 173 yards and 1.4 per play by FIU and had no business winning that game.  They were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.  That misleading final is providing tremendous line value to back Army -3.5 here as the much superior team at home.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -17.5

James Franklin is notorious for running it up on overmatched teams.  He knows the spread of every game and has punched in an extra score late to make sure to cover when needed.  And given all the factors leading into this game, the Hokies will have no problem running it up on Old Dominion this week.

Old Dominion upset Virginia Tech 45-26 last season.  You can bet the Hokies have not forgotten and want their revenge.  That loss led the firing of head coach Brent Pry, and the Hokies went on for a disastrous 3-9 season.  Franklin hired Pry to stay on the staff and be their defensive coordinator.  He spent eight seasons under Franklin as the DC at Penn State.  You know Fry wants revenge on ODU, and his players will have his back.

The Hokies have one of the most experienced rosters in all of college football.  They return 15 starters which is rare for the NIL era.  They also added in three transfer starters.  That includes QB Ethank Grunkemeyer and TE Luke Reynolds among several Penn State transfers who came with Franklin to Blacksburg.

Franklin wasn't afraid to run it up even on lowly VMI in their opener.  The Hokies won 73-3 as 54.5-point favorites after leading 45-0 at halftime.  They racked up 619 total yards and 8.6 yards per play while holding their foes to 83 yards and 1.5 per play.  Grunkemeyer finished 17-of-20 passing for 224 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Duke transfer Que'Sean Brown had 6 receptions for 109 yards and a score in his Hokie debut.

While I'm very high on Virginia Tech this season, I'm also very down on Old Dominion, creating the perfect storm for a blowout.  The Monarchs are overvalued off a 10-3 season last year.  They only bring back seven starters from that team, and the losses are huge.  The biggest loss is QB Colton Joseph, who threw for 2,624 yards and 21 TD, while also rushing for 1,007 yards and 13 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country last year.  Joseph is gone to Wisconsin.

The Hokies in particular won't mind not having to face Joseph.  He went 16-of-22 for for 276 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score on the Hokies last season.  The Monarchs only have one starter back on offense.  They lost their offensive coordinator as well, so this will be their worst offense in years.  They break in five new starters along the offensive line which is never good.

Old Dominion was unimpressive in its opener in a 31-10 win over Norfolk State as a 41.5-point favorite.  The Monarchs not only failed to cover, by 20.5 points, the game was actually closer than the final score.  They only outgained Norfolk State by 99 yards and were held to 319 total yards, a sign their offense is going to be terrible.  Norfolk State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  They went 1-11 last season.  They just lost 59-3 to Virginia on Friday.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.