|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-30-23||Seahawks v. Cowboys -7||Top||35-41||Loss||-110||95 h 13 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7
FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Dallas Cowboys are bullies. They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams. While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.
The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more. That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.
The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown. Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams. They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders. While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.
The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week. The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco. Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.
Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week. Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season. Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.
Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots. Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-27-23||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||Top||12-10||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5
The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them. They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road. The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.
Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts. He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside. The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.
But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks. They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings. They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver. It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.
The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season. Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference. The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.
The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries. It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-26-23||Ravens -4 v. Chargers||Top||20-10||Win||100||168 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4
The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers. Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now. The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game. They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.
The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season. They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.
The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers. Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops. The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.
We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions. The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season. Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them. The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.
The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense. They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers. He is doubtful to play this week. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread. They are going to get to 31 if not more.
The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans. The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers. John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday night.
|11-26-23||Jaguars v. Texans OVER 45.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||161 h 55 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week. Let's look at their last three weeks. They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.
But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars. Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands. He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point. RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. This Houston offense is humming.
The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense. They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing. The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals. The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.
In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total. The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up. The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did. They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.
Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Bucs v. Colts -120||Top||20-27||Win||100||161 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120
I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt. They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.
Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen. The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.
The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up. They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts. They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis. They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.
The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs. They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week. That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III. The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them. Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.
The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game. They should be even healthier coming out of the bye. Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play. They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season. But the numbers clearly tell a different story. The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin. YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season. We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home. Sign me up. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-24-23||Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets||Top||34-13||Win||100||115 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5
This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday. It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point. I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.
The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster. Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson. Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point. That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.
It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL. The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders. They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs. The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.
But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack. Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury. They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards. Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme. Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.
No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much. I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo. They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest. Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.
New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets. New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents. Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more. Bet the Dolphins Friday.
|11-23-23||49ers -4.5 v. Seahawks||31-13||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5
The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy. By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time. They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.
The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye. They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win. Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye. The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week. What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye. Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less. That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it. I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.
The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings. They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year. They dominated the box score in all three games. They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game. They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.
The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4. The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion. The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago. They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.
Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams. He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%. RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one. These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.
Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season. San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents. Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|11-23-23||Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||10-45||Win||100||93 h 44 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.
The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over. They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Neither team scored again.
The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points. They had 472 total yards against the Eagles. They had 432 total yards against the Patriots. The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks. Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points. That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to. But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.
The Cowboys are rolling offensively. In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers. They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form. Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested. They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles. They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.
Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach. Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach. Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach. Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach. Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-23-23||Packers v. Lions OVER 44.5||Top||29-22||Win||100||89 h 44 m||Show|
20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in. This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.
The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks. They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks. But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately. They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.
The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks. They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games. They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular. The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops. They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.
Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points. That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions. This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit. The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one. They could also be without Jaire Alexander.
Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less. Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season. They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-20-23||Eagles +3 v. Chiefs||Top||21-17||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win. They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards. It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.
But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report. There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected. So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better. Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.
The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game. The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed. The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
This Kansas City offense is really broken this season. They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown. The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.
The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-19-23||Seahawks v. Rams +2||Top||16-17||Win||100||142 h 58 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week. They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein. The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.
I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax. It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye. They crushed the Jaguars 34-3. The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards. And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game. The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford. They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.
I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here. They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games. They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL. The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL. The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker. When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.
Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent. They have also been outscored on the season. I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage. Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks. Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division. They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|11-19-23||Bears v. Lions OVER 46||26-31||Win||100||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf. They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL. They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.
We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers. But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week. The Bears will have success against their defense as well.
Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB. They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place. They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him. Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.
This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings. It will be more of the same in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||13-20||Loss||-110||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season. The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots. Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.
The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER. Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer. O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday. He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.
The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks. The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions. They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing. I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.
Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game. This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins -12||13-20||Loss||-110||117 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12
I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week. They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally. They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.
The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more. They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home. They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.
The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach. This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week. They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game. Their luck runs out this week.
The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs. They are a legit good defensive team when healthy. They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together. The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.
Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior. The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one. Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher. Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB. The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-19-23||Cardinals v. Texans OVER 46.5||Top||16-21||Loss||-110||162 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.
The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week. CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen. He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results. It's not going to stop now.
I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week. He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week. Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run. He is much more dynamic when that's the case.
Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game. The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts. I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense. Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.
Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston. I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time. Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-16-23||Bengals v. Ravens -3||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 49 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3
I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up. They have taken money every week and for good reason. They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers. I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.
Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.
Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati. The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.
While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons. The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.
Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players. They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week. DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.
While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns. Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky. Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back. I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.
Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter. That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons. They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th. The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned. That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be. Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them. They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night. They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012. Bet the Ravens Thursday.
|11-13-23||Broncos +7.5 v. Bills||Top||24-22||Win||100||152 h 6 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5
These are two teams headed in opposite directions. There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage. They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season. The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.
The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards. They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites. They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star. They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs. And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.
The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall. They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them. Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs. They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround. They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice. That's mighty impressive.
I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills. Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals. LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol. This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.
Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach. The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|11-12-23||Falcons v. Cardinals||23-25||Loss||-110||124 h 51 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons. They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games. But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.
Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts. He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points. He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.
I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week. They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for. They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses. Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week. Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.
But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything. The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits. They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL. He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.
Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback. They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson. They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season. Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line. Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.
Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season. They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare. We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news. It won't make a difference in his first game back. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|11-12-23||Lions -120 v. Chargers||Top||41-38||Win||100||160 h 24 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120
The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season. They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.
The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week. They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week. It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.
The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one. They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world. The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play. Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.
The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football. That was such a misleading final. The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21. They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.
This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games. Their offense is broken right now. They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two. The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.
Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win. The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13. Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season. These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions. Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-12-23||Browns v. Ravens -6.5||33-31||Loss||-107||65 h 32 m||Show|
15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5
The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing. They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy. What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.
Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards. They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards. They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter. They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.
This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games. The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve. Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it. Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense. It will matter this week.
It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr. Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out. Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.
I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too. They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals. We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.
The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them. The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game. I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right. It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more. The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|11-12-23||49ers -135 v. Jaguars||Top||34-3||Win||100||157 h 19 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135
I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week. I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.
The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.
A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland. But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury. Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side. Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance. Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.
The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye. Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be. Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.
The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it. Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers. They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it. Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.
This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least. It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9. Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards. The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday. It also shows up in the numbers.
The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense. I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack. Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.
San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game. Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents. Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move. Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-12-23||Colts -115 v. Patriots||10-6||Win||100||117 h 16 m||Show|
15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115
The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints. They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots. Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place. Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.
The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have. They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game. The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics. The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.
The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown. They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne. Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable. They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver. He can't get separation any more. Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.
Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift. Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games. Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game. Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-09-23||Panthers v. Bears UNDER 40.5||13-16||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5
The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.
The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.
The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. He is likely to get the start again Thursday. He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game. The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior. Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983. Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season. They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-09-23||Panthers v. Bears -3||Top||13-16||Push||0||9 h 59 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3
I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week. But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB. Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.
This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB. They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago. Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards. And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers. Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.
The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 yards last week. Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.
But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now. The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson. Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell. The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.
The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more. Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week. They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the Bears Thursday.
|11-06-23||Chargers v. Jets +3.5||Top||27-6||Loss||-110||106 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5
The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week. I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored. Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value.
What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City. They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs. They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs. If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers.
What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall. They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go. They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve. They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits.
The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game. They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score. They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game.
When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost. They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami. As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys. I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one. They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of.
The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat. Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%. Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play. Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now. The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears. Bet the Jets Monday.
|11-05-23||Bills v. Bengals OVER 48||Top||18-24||Loss||-113||153 h 16 m||Show|
20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48
The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London.
The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards.
But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville. After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense. The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week.
Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him. He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games. The offense is basically fully healthy right now. Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out.
Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense. I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one. This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year. And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week.
The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win. They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win. They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%. The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities. They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.
The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-23||Giants v. Raiders OVER 37||6-30||Loss||-110||76 h 24 m||Show|
15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37
The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games. The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games. This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week.
There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week. The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM. They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way. He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard. O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior. He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play.
On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week. He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances. The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload. This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season.
This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week. The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week. Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense. New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen. They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him.
I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses. That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks. I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense.
The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total. But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total. They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami. This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER.
The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-23||Dolphins +2 v. Chiefs||Top||14-21||Loss||-110||66 h 28 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2
I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning. They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip. The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate.
We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game. The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play. I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs.
The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week. They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots.
I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season. But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them. The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles.
This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs. I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced. They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy.
The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable. Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB. This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in. So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville.
The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken. They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season. They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce. The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory.
The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense. There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-02-23||Titans +3 v. Steelers||Top||16-20||Loss||-110||43 h 52 m||Show|
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3
Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal. This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams. The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week. They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy.
The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback. It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week. They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons. Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center.
I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh. However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points. The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play.
The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record. The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in.
The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable. Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game. They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion.
QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement. Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury. The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston. They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype.
This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more. The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play. They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season. Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well.
The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season. They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Titans Thursday.
|10-30-23||Raiders v. Lions -8||Top||14-26||Win||100||152 h 6 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8
This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week. You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season. Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier. But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed. Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense.
Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track. They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season. They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory. The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse.
The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week. They are held to 235 total yards in defeat. Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week. This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.
A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment. The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry. They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit.
The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games. They will get back on track offensively this week. The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line. K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury.
Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more. The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Lions Monday.
|10-29-23||Ravens -7.5 v. Cardinals||Top||31-24||Loss||-104||164 h 60 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5
Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5.
I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals. That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week. So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football.
The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week. The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league.
Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers. But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona.
I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits. They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle. They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout.
Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games. Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt. They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him. Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him. He isn't handling it very well.
Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL. They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week. They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now. The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks. They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future.
The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst. The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|10-29-23||Browns v. Seahawks -130||Top||20-24||Win||100||164 h 39 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130
The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games. I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final.
They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.
While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite. I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning.
The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.
Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.
The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. I think their luck runs out this week.
The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one. Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries. It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment.
The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals. But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week. Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state. That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites.
The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-29-23||Saints v. Colts -116||38-27||Loss||-116||156 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116
The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.
That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns. Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.
Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.
What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week. Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense. He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career. Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz. Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns.
Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week. I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back.
I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone. That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks. They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable. They get in the red zone and bog down. They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%. The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints.
You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. They aren't on the same page right now. You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars. It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense. They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara.
The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. The are so predictable. They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses.
The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule. But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans. They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints. Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-26-23||Bucs v. Bills OVER 43||Top||18-24||Loss||-110||22 h 6 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43
The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago.
The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.
Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense. The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin. Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here.
The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week. They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable.
What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in. The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away. The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%.
Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace. The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year.
Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers. Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-23-23||49ers v. Vikings +7||Top||17-22||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games. Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games. All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score. Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value.
The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders. Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game. The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season.
Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week. Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense. McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game.
The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13. This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat. They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game. If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers.
Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season. He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late. The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn. Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.
Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|10-22-23||Dolphins v. Eagles -130||17-31||Win||100||100 h 12 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130
I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night. They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away. They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night. They want to destroy this hype train.
Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week. Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do.
The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game. They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession. They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here.
That's especially the case when you look at the forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night. That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage. That team is Philadelphia.
This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago. Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing. Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well. Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well. They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets. They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers. They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers. This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia. Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-22-23||Packers v. Broncos OVER 44.5||Top||17-19||Loss||-110||114 h 39 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5
I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week. They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses. They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy. Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.
Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved. However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season. Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well.
The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago. The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season. The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.
The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game. They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS. The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions. The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well.
Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell. The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders. The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions.
The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver. Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans. Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-22-23||Cardinals v. Seahawks -7.5||Top||10-20||Win||100||100 h 23 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5
Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5.
The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL. They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.
The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling. I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games. In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards. Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season.
Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league. They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of. Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards. The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week. That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards.
Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks. They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games. After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half. The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense.
What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury. They just don't have a replacement for him. He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season. Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL.
As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday. The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage. Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week. Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.
Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road. I expect them to make it four in a row here.
I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game. Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|10-22-23||Browns v. Colts +2.5||39-38||Win||100||122 h 50 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5
The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now. Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration. The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half. They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week. Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush.
No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week. I like the Colts either way. This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.
The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.
The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-22-23||Lions v. Ravens -135||Top||6-38||Win||100||146 h 34 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135
The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season. They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London. And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final. The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.
The Ravens should be 6-0 this season. They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers. If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week.
The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL. They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game. This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season.
While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back. They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday. The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions.
The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much. Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem. It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week.
Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog. Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3. He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors. Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay. They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks. They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win. Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents. It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend. Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-19-23||Jaguars v. Saints -116||Top||31-24||Loss||-116||45 h 11 m||Show|
20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116
The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts. This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars.
The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week. They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play. Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles. They easily should have won that game.
The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts.
Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping. He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes. The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell.
The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye. And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report. This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here.
The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play. They are much healthier than the Jaguars. Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses. The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday.
|10-16-23||Cowboys v. Chargers +2.5||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||178 h 2 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5
I was on the 49ers -3.5 over the Cowboys last week and I'm fading the Cowboys again this week. Their stats coming into that 49ers game were fraudulent because they were living on defensive touchdowns and turnovers, masking the poor performance of their offense in the red zone. That's a tough way to live.
The Cowboys were exposed in their 42-10 loss at San Francisco. They also got banged up on defense in that game, losing LB Leighton Vander Esch and CB C.J. Goodwin to injury. That's bad news for a Cowboys team that just isn't as good defensively without CB Trevon Diggs.
The 49ers have a way of making teams play poorly the following week. They play a physical brand of football, and it's mentally taxing on opponents trying to prepare for them as well. One of the best hidden stats about the 49ers is that teams are now 2-19 SU & 4-15-2 ATS the game after facing them since the start of last year. And now the Cowboys are being asked to go on the road as favorites when they are clearly beat up this week.
Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they'll be facing a rested Chargers team coming off their bye week. The Chargers are also getting healthy coming into this one with Austin Ekeler making his return to the lineup, plus there's a good chance they get both S Derwin James and LB Joey Bosa back defensively. The Chargers are now one of the healthiest teams in the league, while the Cowboys are as banged up as they have been all season.
The Chargers will be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense that allowed 421 total yards to the 49ers last week. They have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and their run game is much better with Ekeler in the fold. Conversely, I think the Chargers are in line for another good defensive performance after holding the Raiders to 17 points and 264 total yards last time out while forcing three turnovers. Khalil Mack had six sacks in the win. The Chargers have elite talent on defense and massive potential when healthy like they are right now. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|10-15-23||Eagles v. Jets +7||14-20||Win||100||74 h 47 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7
The Jets have turned a corner taking Kansas City to the wire in a 23-20 loss, and dominating the Broncos in a 31-21 road victory last week. This isn't that far off from the Kansas City spread as the Jets closed as 8-point home dogs. Now they are 7-point home dogs to the Eagles, and many would have Kansas City power-rated one point better than the Eagles at this point.
The Eagles haven't faced very many good defenses this season. Three have been the Rams, Commanders and Vikings, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Against the two best defenses they faced they had 25 points on the Patriots but basically 14 came off turnovers. They had 25 points against the Bucs as well.
I think the Jets can hold the Eagles to 24 or less in this one, meaning they'd only need 17 to push or cover. They held the Bills to 16 and the Chiefs to 23 and actually outscored those two teams in the two games combined, so they have proven they can play with anyone. The weather could be pretty rough for this one and turn it into an even lower scoring game, meaning each point is worth more. There is a 50% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds expected.
The Jets won't mind uglying it up and running the football now that they have a fully healthy Breece Hall. He has averaged 7.2 yards per carry this season and 7.4 yards per reception. He is an absolute weapon for this team right now. Zach Wilson has played his two best games of the season last last two weeks and is gaining confidence, and so is the team in him.
This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they have to fly back from Los Angeles after beating the Rams last week. They will now be on the road for a second consecutive week and haven't been home for two weeks in a row yet. They also have a huge game against Miami on deck, so they could be looking forward to that game. The Eagles just haven't been that dominant this season with four of their five wins coming by single-digits. But you're paying a tax to back them now due to their 5-0 record. I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up here and lose this game outright. The Jets have just one loss by more than 5 points this season.
S Justin Evans, CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter all did not practice on Thursday for the Eagles and are questionable to play in this one. The Jets got good injury news with Sauce Gardner expected to play and a couple offensive linemen returning to practice on a limited bases Thursday. Bet the Jets Sunday.
|10-15-23||Cardinals v. Rams OVER 47||Top||9-26||Loss||-110||151 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47
The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.
The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team. They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses. They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles. Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket.
The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively. They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game. Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points. It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more.
The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points. The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five. Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch. Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference. Points will be plentiful in this one.
Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more. Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-15-23||Panthers v. Dolphins OVER 48||Top||21-42||Win||100||147 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play. Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER. They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week. They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best.
Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards. I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system. Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season.
Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces. The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-15-23||Colts +5 v. Jaguars||Top||20-37||Loss||-110||147 h 31 m||Show|
20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5
I've backed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a premium pick each of the last two weeks in London with success. They won and covered as 3-point favorites in a 16-point win over Jacksonville. They won and covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 25-20 win over Buffalo. Jacksonville had the advantage of being familiar with the surroundings in London and becoming the first team to stay over there for two consecutive games. Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars.
Jacksonville returns home and will be dealing with all the distractions that come with returning home from a long road trip. Home field hasn't been too kind to the Jaguars this season. They lost 17-9 to the Chiefs as 3-point dogs. They were blasted 37-17 by the Texans as 7.5-point favorites.
Now they must play an improving Indianapolis Colts team that will be highly motivated for revenge from a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars in the opener. That was a 10-point loss, but they did lead the Jaguars going into the 4th quarter. They also failed to score from the 1-yard line in the final seconds, turning a 3-point loss to a 10-point loss.
That was the first game for head coach Shane Steichen. The Colts have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since with their lone loss coming in overtime to the Rams. That was the only game in which Anthony Richardson started and finished. I think Gardner Minshew is an upgrade over Richardson.
He came in for an injured Richardson to lead a 31-20 win at Houston. Last week, Minshew came in for an injured Richardson and led the Colts to a 23-16 home win over Tennessee. And in the only game Minshew had a full week to prepare, if you'll remember I was on the Colts +8 over the Ravens. They won that game outright 22-19 in overtime.
Minshew is the real deal, and Steichen has no problem adjusting the offense to fit his skill set. He is completing 68.7% of his passes compared to just 59.5% for Richardson. Minshew has yet to turn the ball over, either, which is huge. This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Minshew as he made his name with the Jaguars, and will be extra motivated to beat his former team.
The Jaguars put up gaudy offensive numbers against the Bills last week, but keep in mind the Bills were already injury-ravaged on defense coming into the game, and then lost several players early in that one including Milano and Jones. This Colts defense will offer up much more resistance. They have allowed 23 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four games. WR Zay Jones, LT Cam Robinson and LG Walker Little are all banged up right now and questionable to play Sunday. Jones and Walker did not practice Thursday and are doubtful.
The Colts have quietly rushed for at least 126 yards in four consecutive games. They just rushed for 193 yards last week on a Tennessee Titans team that had previously been great against the run. Zack Moss has been a revelation, and Jonathan Taylor just returned from injured reserve last week. This is quietly one of the best two-headed monsters are running back in the NFL moving forward, which will take a ton of pressure off Minshew. The didn't have either Moss or Taylor in the season-opening loss to the Jaguars.
I just love taking these teams out for revenge in the 2nd meeting after losing the first, especially when they are on the road as underdogs in the rematch. I also love fading teams coming back from London. Most teams take a bye week coming back from London, but not the Jaguars. The last 11 teams not to take a bye week after London were either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter, including the Falcons last week in their 2-point win over the Texans. There is a hangover effect and jet lag these teams have to deal with. I fully expect Indianapolis to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-15-23||Ravens -4 v. Titans||24-16||Win||100||67 h 52 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Titans NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -4
John Harbaugh decided to have his team fly out on Sunday night to London. He's had this game circled because the last time they went to London they got blown out. They are taking this game very seriously, especially coming off a blown 10-0 lead to the Steelers and losing 17-10.
The Ravens dominated that game against the Steelers but had 7-8 drops and committed three turnovers. If the Ravens had won that game in a blowout like they should have, this line would be higher than Baltimore -4. I think the Ravens are primed for a big effort here.
The Ravens will have their entire offensive line intact since Week 1. They have also several key players back on defense from injury now. They are the healthiest they have been at any point this season, so that's another reason we should get the best version of the Ravens.
The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the road this season losing at New Orleans, losing 27-3 at Cleveland and falling 23-16 at Baltimore. What had previously been a stout Tennessee run defense was shredded for 193 rushing yards by the Colts last week. The biggest reason was not having DT Teair Tart in the middle last week as he was out with a toe injury. He hasn't practiced this week and is doubtful.
Tart is one of the most underrated defensive players in the entire league. The Titans also won't have WR Treylon Burks or LB Luke Gifford for this one, plus DT Jeffery Simmons, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, S Amani Hooker and DL Denico Autry have all been limited in practice and are questionable. The Titans are in the worst position they've been in health-wise heading into this game.
The Bills didn't arrive in London until Friday last week and were flat as a pancake against the Jaguars. Well, the Titans took the same approach and didn't arrive in London until Friday this week. That screams jet lag, and it's not enough time to acclimate to the time change. Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business, but he's making a mistake not getting his team acclimated in time for this game at 9:30 AM EST.
The Ravens have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play and only allowing 4.1 yards per play on defense. The Titans are getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense. The Ravens are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season here. Remember, they scored 28 points against the Browns two weeks ago, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following an upset loss to a division opponent. Baltimore is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games following an upset loss as a favorite. Harbaugh is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|10-12-23||Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47||8-19||Loss||-110||12 h 33 m||Show|
15* Broncos/Chiefs AFC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 47
The weather forecast has driven this total down from as high as 52 to below the key number of 48 and down to another key number of 47 tonight. There are expected to be 15-25 MPH winds, so the move down was expected, but it has gone too far. I think there's value on the OVER 47 here.
Even if the Chiefs decide to keep the ball on the ground more, they are going to continue to score. They face the worst defense in the entire NFL in the Broncos, who allow 36.2 points per game, 451 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Broncos allow 188 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season.
The Broncos are much-improved on offense this season. They average 6.1 yards per play on offense, which is a Top 5 mark in the league. They also average 4.9 yards per carry on the ground, which is one of the best marks in the NFL. They are going to be able to run the football on this Kansas City defense, and Russell Wilson has ample healthy weapons outside this season.
The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 68, 90, 59 and 52 points in their last four games overall. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with 51, 62 and 52 combined points. And two of those were with Denver's terrible offense and elite defense last year. It is opposite for the Broncos this season with a solid offense and the worst defense in the NFL. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-09-23||Packers +105 v. Raiders||Top||13-17||Loss||-100||96 h 19 m||Show|
20* Packers/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay ML +105
I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers Monday. They played last Thursday so they've had nearly two weeks to prepare for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Packers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL in the early going, so this extra rest is huge for them. Guys like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson returned from injury last game but were on a snap count. Both should be back to full strength and play the entire game, which will help out Jordan Love drastically.
The Packers have the better offense in this one with Love and his playmakers over likely Jimmy G and his playmakers. It's no coincidence Jimmy G has struggled and gotten hurt again here now that he doesn't have Kyle Shanahan calling the shots for him. It's a big downgrade in head coach Josh McDaniels, who continues making the wrong decisions for this team. Davante Adams is banged up with a shoulder injury and did not practice Thursday.
The biggest weakness for the Packers this season has been their run defense. However, that shouldn't be much of an issue here as the Raiders haven't been able to get anything going on the ground. They average 65 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry against teams that allow 137 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, so they have faced a weak schedule of opposing run defenses. The Raiders are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which is really poor considering they have an offensive-minded head coach in McDaniels. The Raiders also give up 25.3 points per game.
Matt LaFleur is 9-1 ATS after being outrushed by 75 yards or more as the coach of Green Bay. LaFleur is 16-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Packers. Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games. The Packers are better on both sides of the ball and at head coach. The only thing the Raiders have going for them is home field, but Packers fans will travel and it will probably be closer to a 50/50 split. Green Bay has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' here to get a win and improve to 3-2 going into the bye. Bet the Packers on the Money Line.
|10-08-23||Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5||Top||10-42||Win||100||145 h 16 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -3.5
The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL this season. They have now won 14 consecutive regular season games, are 13-1 since trading for Christian McCaffrey, and haven't lost a game in which Brock Purdy has started and finished. The 49ers have won 10 consecutive home games with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, including seven by double-digits. They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.
The 49ers have dominant stats, most notably on a yards per play basis, which is my favorite stat in the NFL. They have scored at least 30 points in all four games this season while averaging 398 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They allow just 14.5 points per game, 284 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.
Dallas has been living off turnovers and defensive touchdowns to mask their problems on offense. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games and are +9 in turnover differential, many of those which were returned for touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns are tough to count on. Their offense has struggled in the red zone this year, and that will be the difference in this game.
The Cowboys won't be able to turn the 49ers over as they have committed only one turnover all season. Brock Purdy is great at taking care of the football. The Cowboys only average 5.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play. Those are numbers of an average team, so the Cowboys aren't in the same breathe as the 49ers in that department. But many see these as close to even teams, which just isn't the case.
The 49ers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and I think the 49ers are better this season than they were in those two previous playoff wins. They won 23-17 on the road in 2022 and 19-12 at home last season. Dak Prescott could not do anything against their defense, and he will struggle once again.
Another key is that the 49ers are going to be able to run the football on Dallas, which was the key to Arizona pulling off the 28-16 upset over the Cowboys two weeks ago. They rushed for 222 yards on 30 carries on the Cowboys. Dallas was able to pin its ears back in the other three games against Daniel Jones and the Giants, Zach Wilson and the Jets and Mac Jones and the Patriots due to building large leads with their defense. They won't be able to pin their ears back against the 49ers, who rush for 141 yards per game and have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey who has been unstoppable to this point.
San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite. The matchup of head coaches with Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy is worth a couple points here as well with Shanahan far and away better than McCarthy. Bet the 49ers Sunday night.
|10-08-23||Bengals v. Cardinals OVER 44.5||34-20||Win||100||141 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Bengals/Cardinals OVER 44.5
The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They scored 28 points on the Giants, 28 on the Cowboys and then 16 on the 49ers and it should have been 24 because they missed a 2-point conversion and had two drops in the end zone to end the game. They had no problem moving the football on both the 49ers and Cowboys, who have arguably the two best defenses in the NFL.
Arizona has a hideous defense that allows 25.5 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. We are 'buying low' on this Cincinnati Bengals offense, which has been the most disappointing offense in the league when compared to preseason expectations. I think a trip to Arizona inside a dome could be just what the doctor ordered for Joe Burrow and company to get on track.
The Bengals have played four straight outdoor games to open the season against the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans. Three of those four teams have elite defenses while the Rams are decent, and the Bengals had some success against the Rams. Arizona has by far the worst defense the Bengals will have faced all season.
This Cincinnati defense has been almost equally disappointing taking a big step back this season. The Bengals allow 23.5 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Josh Dobbs and James Conner are in line for a big game on the ground. The Bengals allow 157 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. That will open things up for Dobbs down the field. Arizona averages 144 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-08-23||Giants v. Dolphins OVER 49.5||Top||16-31||Loss||-110||138 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Dolphins OVER 49.5
I locked in this total on Monday prior to the Giants facing the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. I did it in anticipation that this total would get bet to 50 or above. But it has creeped back down largely due to the Giants being held to 3 points by the Seahawks. I would probably make it a 25* play at 47 or 47.5, which is currently where it's at as of this writing. So adjust your bets accordingly as this is one of the rare times I've gotten a worse line. I still think this total should be 51 or higher.
The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team. They have the most explosive offense in the NFL scoring 37.5 points per game, averaging 511 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous over a four-game sample size. They remain healthy on offense and can name their number on this Giants defense, which is allowing 30.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.
The Giants have been woeful on offense this season, but they have also played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses. They have faced arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in the Cowboys and 49ers. They also faced a Seahawks team that got several key players back from injury on defense prior to their game and lived up to their potential.
In their lone game against a bad defense, the Giants put up 31 points and 439 total yards on the Cardinals. The Dolphins may have a worse defense than the Cardinals. They allow 29.8 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Bills hung 48 points on them last week, and Daniel Jones is in line for another big game like he had against the Cardinals.
The Giants had to go up-tempo in the 2nd half to come back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Cardinals. They are going to have to go up-tempo against the Dolphins as well because I expect them to be trailing the entire time trying to keep pace. There's a chance the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis. But I like the OVER regardless of whether or not he plays.
The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only an 18% chance of precipitation and 7 MPH winds in Miami. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-08-23||Jaguars v. Bills OVER 48||25-20||Loss||-105||135 h 40 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Bills NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48
The Buffalo Bills beat themselves in the opener with four turnovers in a 22-16 loss to the Jets. It was one of Josh Allen's worst games against a Jets defense that just has him figured out. Allen and this Buffalo offense have responded in a big way since.
The Bills put up 38 points and 450 total yards on the Raiders in Week 2, 37 points and 386 total yards on the Commanders in Week 3 and 48 points and 414 total yards on the Dolphins in Week 4. They have averaged 41 points per game in their last three games.
I think they can get to 30 points against Jacksonville to help pave the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket. The Jaguars are allowing 5.6 yards per play this season. The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season. I also think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars. LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension. WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon. WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.
The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead. They won't be able to be vanilla against this Buffalo offense as they will have to try and match them score for score.
They get a banged-up Buffalo defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all banged up on defense. LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.
The weather looks great for Sunday in London with temps in the 70's, light winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation. I think we get a shootout here with these two talented offenses.
Buffalo is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Jacksonville is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Doug Pederson is 8-0 OVER In road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. Sean McDermott is 6-0 OVER following a win by 21 points or more over a division opponent as the coach of Buffalo. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-08-23||Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills||25-20||Win||100||84 h 45 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills. They are coming off three consecutive blowout wins. Last week's 48-20 win over Miami was the one they really wanted, and I think they will be flat after making a statement and letting the Dolphins know they are still the kings of the division.
Buffalo's three straight blowout wins were largely due to being +9 in turnovers and forcing 10. That's not sustainable. The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season. I think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars. LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension. WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon. WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.
The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead. They won 23-7 and were never really in jeopardy. Doug Pederson knows he's going to have to keep the foot on the gas to hang with the Bills, and I think the Jaguars are fully capable.
The spot really favors Jacksonville. They are the first team that gets to stay in London for consecutive weeks. They are used to the scenery and there will be no jet lag. Jet lag will be a real issue for the Bills, who will be playing a 9:30 AM EST body clock game. I think they'll still be hung over from that huge Miami win.
Buffalo has a banged-up defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all on the injury report on defense. LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely. TE Dawson Knox is questionable as well.
The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road/neutral games. Bet the Jaguars Sunday.
|10-05-23||Bears v. Commanders OVER 44.5||Top||40-20||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
20* Bears/Commanders NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5
Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders. The weather looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 5 MPH winds. These two defenses will make these two offenses look like two of the best in the NFL tonight.
The Bears have lost 14 consecutive games while allowing at least 25 points in all 14 games for the first time in NFL history. The Bears came into the season with the least-talented defense in the NFL, and injuries have made them even worse. They are allowing 34.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.
Washington has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games. The Commanders are allowing 30.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Both defenses are tired as well as the Bears blew a 28-7 lead to the Broncos last week with their defense on the field the entire second half, and the Commanders going to OT with the Eagles. The effect is maximized with this being a short week on Thursday Night Football.
Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after blowing that lead to the Broncos last week. He led the Bears to 471 total yards. Fields went 28-of-35 passing for 335 yards with four touchdowns and two turnovers. His elusiveness will be huge against this Washington defensive line, which is the strength of their defense. Washington's secondary is not good.
The Commanders have scored 31 and 35 points in two of their last three games coming in. Sam Howell went 29-of-41 for 290 yards with one touchdown and no picks against a very good Philadelphia defense last week. He is also elusive, rushing for 40 yards on six carries against the Eagles as well. He has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league this season.
The OVER is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games overall dating back to last season, including 4-0 this season. The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in 13 of those 15 games. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-02-23||Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 48||Top||24-3||Win||100||122 h 39 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48
Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019. Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4. This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley.
The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards. You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game. And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers. Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense.
No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total. But both of those teams were missing key players defensively. They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1. This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night.
The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far. Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled. Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense. Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year. Having him back will be a game changer for them. Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well.
These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points. Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle. The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs. New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss. Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play. The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-01-23||Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 44||16-35||Win||100||96 h 51 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44
Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket. They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better.
I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week. The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone. It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys.
The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior. The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is. Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes.
While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense. This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks. They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys.
Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys. The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB. They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game.
The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total. The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year. But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting. Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first. So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals. I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one.
These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-01-23||Dolphins v. Bills OVER 53.5||Top||20-48||Win||100||95 h 17 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5
The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season. They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points. In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game. And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points. They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill.
This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins. They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense. The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks. They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3.
This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week. S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well. The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense.
After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks. They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing. They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game.
The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts. Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua. But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins. They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well.
Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium. Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-01-23||Falcons v. Jaguars -3||Top||7-23||Win||100||108 h 37 m||Show|
20* Falcons/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3
This feels like a great spot to back the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. They are coming off two consecutive losses, so they will be focused and ready to go in London. I also like the fact that they play in London every year, so this is essentially a home game for them. Fans have adopted this team like their own so it will feel like a home game as well.
The Jaguars were beaten by the Chiefs 17-9 at home two weeks ago. They just failed in the red zone time after time and couldn't get anything going. But last week's 20-point home loss to Houston provides us with an opportunity to 'buy low' on the Jaguars this week. Now everyone is writing them off, which is exactly the time I like to back teams in the NFL.
Especially teams like the Jaguars who have a lot of talent and are better than the last score showed. The 20-point loss to Houston was very misleading. They actually outgained the Texans by 38 yards and had 404 total yards of offense, but only 17 points to show for it. They gave up an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to a fullback, which was absolutely insane.
Now the Jaguars get to face the Falcons, who are overvalued due to their 2-1 start this season. They beat the Panthers in the opener, who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. They came back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Packers at home in Week 2. The Packers were missing several key players in that game. Then in their first road game of the season, the Falcons were blasted 20-6 on the road by the Lions.
There was nothing misleading about that loss to the Lions. They were outgained by 175 yards by the Lions. Their offense was held to just 183 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. They are a one-dimensional running team with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league with Desmond Ridder. He is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season with two touchdowns and one interception. He just doesn't threaten opposing defenses with the downfield passes.
That makes this a great matchup for the Jaguars. While they have been susceptible against the pass defensively this season, they have been great against the run. The Jaguars are only allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season. They will be able to bottle up the run just like Detroit did, and that will be the key to them getting the win and cover here against the Falcons. Bet the Jaguars Sunday morning.
|09-28-23||Lions v. Packers +2||Top||34-20||Loss||-110||27 h 45 m||Show|
20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +2
The Green Bay Packers have had this game circled all offseason. The Detroit Lions beat them in Week 18 last year to keep them out of the playoffs. In fact, they swept the season series and have lost three consecutive games to the Lions overall. It's safe to say they won't be lacking any motivation here Thursday night.
These short weeks really favor the home teams. Green Bay has zero travel involved after beating the Saints at home Sunday to improve to 2-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Atlanta after blowing a 12-point lead. The Packers have the rest and travel advantage as a result with the Lions having to fly in from Detroit on a short week.
The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the opener on the road. They haven't had Aaron Jones or Christian Watson either of the last two games, but both are expected to return. That gives Jordan Love his two biggest playmakers on the field at the same time for the first time all season. What he has done thus far without these two has been very impressive. He has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games. I think Love is much better than he gets credit for.
This Green Bay defense also looks improved and is much healthier than the offense. Plus, not only did Jones and Watson return to practice this week, but their top CB in Jaire Alexander returned to practice this week as well. There's a good chance they get all three of these players back, which are three of the very best players on the entire roster.
Speaking of injuries, the Lions have a laundry list of them. FB Cabinda and RG Vaitai and RT Nelson are out on offense, while LT Decker, LG Jackson and RB Montgomery are all questionable. FS Joseph missed last game with a hip injury and is questionable to return this week. This isn't a very good Detroit defense as it is, and that was evident when they gave up 37 points to Seattle two weeks ago. I think they are being overvalued here as road favorites off their home win over the Falcons last week.
The Packers have clearly been undervalued this season and are getting no respect here once again as this line has flipped favorites. In fact, the Packers have flipped from favorites to underdogs for three consecutive games now. They were -1.5 to +3 against the Falcons and covered in a 1-point loss. They were -2 to +1.5 against the Saints last week and covered in a 1-point win. They improved to 3-0 ATS this season. They went from -1.5 to +2 as of this writing in this game as well.
Green Bay is 28-4 SU in its last 32 home meetings with Detroit. The Packers have arguably the best home-field advantage in the entire NFL, and that's not being factored enough into this line. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in Green Bay since 1986 when the Packers have had their starting QB healthy. The Lions are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as road favorites. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|09-25-23||Eagles v. Bucs OVER 45||Top||25-11||Loss||-110||79 h 45 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season. They are scoring 29.5 points per game. They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight.
The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career. Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles.
Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings. CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday. Several other players are playing through injury on defense.
I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season. The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times. The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable.
Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|09-24-23||Cowboys v. Cardinals OVER 43||16-28||Win||100||88 h 57 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43
The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants. They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.
No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers. They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.
Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for. They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week. I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.
Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona. The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings. A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-24-23||Bears v. Chiefs OVER 47||10-41||Win||100||88 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47
The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. That game also had the highest total at 50.5. Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.
This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks. Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars. I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.
The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2. Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury. What a mess. They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week. The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.
The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs. They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week. But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result. He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better. That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks. Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.
Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds. This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season. We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-24-23||Titans +3.5 v. Browns||3-27||Loss||-110||85 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5
Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week. He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys. He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns. He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio. There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.
Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury. I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans. They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense. They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.
Mike Vraebel is the underdog king. He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU. Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach. The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching. Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.
The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games. They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb. The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints. He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992. So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them. Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. This line should be closer to PK. Bet the Titans Friday.
|09-24-23||Colts +8 v. Ravens||Top||22-19||Win||100||93 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8
This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens. They have won and covered each of their first two games this season. They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate. They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.
Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs. But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season. Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week. The Bengals are a mess. So those two wins don't look that great now.
The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead. Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs. The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.
QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL. Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.
The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far. They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way. I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.
Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again. They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey. RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable. I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.
This is a trap spot for the Ravens. They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals. They have been thinking about this game all offseason. Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck. This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.
Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season. This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|09-24-23||Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44||Top||37-17||Win||100||85 h 32 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44
The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. That game also had the highest total at 50.5. Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.
That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration. Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers. But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points. There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.
Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points. The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs. The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.
CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance. He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce. This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.
The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now. They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs. They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well. They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense. It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.
Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted. I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-21-23||Giants v. 49ers -10||Top||12-30||Win||100||49 h 17 m||Show|
20* Giants/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -10
The San Francisco 49ers look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks. The New York Giants look like one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks. That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits on the 49ers here at home against the Giants.
The 49ers dominated the Steelers 30-7 on the road in Week 1. They gained 391 yards and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 239 yards and 3.9 per play on defense. The 49ers then beat the Rams 30-23 on the road only after a last-second field goal at the buzzer by the Rams. They gained 365 yards and 6.8 yards per play on offense while holding the Rams to 4.9 yards per play on defense. Yes, the Rams outgained them, but that's only because they ran 24 more plays. Yards per play margin is a lot more important in the NFL.
The Giants were blasted 40-0 by the Cowboys in Week 1. They only managed 171 total yards and 2.6 yards per play on offense against the Cowboys. Then they had what was supposed to be a 'get right' game against arguably the worst team in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals, and it was anything but. The Giants needed to come back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win on a field goal, 31-28. The Giants allowed 379 yards and 6.3 yards per play to the Josh Dobbs and this pitiful Arizona offense.
That comeback effort will have taken a lot out of the Giants on a short week. They will be fatigued playing their second consecutive road game. Meanwhile, there's basically no travel at all for the 49ers and from Los Angeles back to Santa Clara, so they will have a big advantage in rest here.
Injuries also work in the 49ers favor here. They are remarkably healthy right now with WR Brandon Aiyuk being the only scare. He left the Rams game with a shoulder injury, but he returned to finish the game, so you have to think he's going to give it a go Thursday. Meanwhile, the Giants lost their best playmaker in Saquan Barkley to an ankle injury while trying to center the ball for the game-winning field goal last week.
Barkley scored two of their four touchdowns last week and this offense was already bad with him, and it's going to be very bad without him. Backup Matt Breida only had one rush for five yards last week. LT Andrew Thomas is questionable and LG Ben Bredeson is doubtful. LB Micah McFadden is questionable and LB Azeez Ojulari is questionable as well. The injuries are already starting to add up for the Giants.
San Francisco went 9-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game in this spot. The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. San Francisco is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points per game. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|09-18-23||Browns v. Steelers +3||Top||22-26||Win||100||68 h 9 m||Show|
20* Browns/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3
This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are coming off a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a 24-3 dismantling of the Bengals in the slop. They simply own the Bengals, and Joe Burrow was rusty after just recently returning to practice, plus the slopping conditions favored the Browns.
The Steelers were 1-point favorites for this game on the lookahead line, and now they are 3-point underdogs, which is a 4-point adjustment. That's too big of an adjustment for one game's results, and we'll take advantage of the line value and back the motivated 0-1 home underdog here against the fat and happy 1-0 team.
The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns over the years, especially at home. Pittsburgh is 46-12 SU against Cleveland since 1992, including 28-3 SU at home. It's rare to find them as home underdogs to the Browns, but that's the opportunity we have been given here, and we'll take advantage.
Mike Tomlin is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Pittsburgh. His teams are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot. The Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-5-3 ATS as home dogs. Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when the line is +3 to -3. Cleveland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Pittsburgh) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since 1993. Finally, the Steelers are 20-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football since 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.
|09-18-23||Saints v. Panthers +3.5||Top||20-17||Win||100||67 h 9 m||Show|
20* Saints/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on Carolina +3.5
I like backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2. The lookahead line for this game was Saints -1.5, and now it has been bet up to -3 and -3.5 in some places. That's plenty of line value to pull the trigger on the home underdog here catching 3 points.
Carolina's 24-10 loss at Atlanta was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Panthers actually held the Falcons to 221 total yards and outgained them by 60 yards and had 20 first downs compared to 13 for Atlanta. But the difference was the Panthers lost the turnover battle 3-0.
That was a tough spot for rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut on the road in a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta. I like his chances of playing much better at home in front of a rowdy crowd that will be on his side in anticipation of getting to see the top pick in the draft. The Panthers rushed for 154 yards and 4.8 per carry against the Falcons, so they have the running game to take some pressure off Young. They also are expected to get WR DJ Chark back from injury this week to give him another weapon.
The Saints beat the Titans 16-15 at home last week. Ryan Tannehill gave that game away by throwing 3 interceptions in a game the Titans deserved to win. Derek Carr was decent in his first start for the Saints, but they had no running game, rushing for 69 yards and 2.6 per carry. Not having Alvin Kamara due to suspension is a big blow to this Saints offense.
Carolina is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a divisional loss by 10 points or more. Carolina won both meetings with New Orleans last year despite being underdogs in both games, holding the Saints to 7 points at home and 14 points on the road. They have this New Orleans offense figured out and I trust their defense to keep them in this game, while Young makes enough plays in the passing game for the Panthers to get the upset victory. Bet the Panthers Monday.
|09-17-23||Bears +3 v. Bucs||17-27||Loss||-115||109 h 15 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Bears +3
This is a classic overreaction from Week 1 results. Tampa Bay upset Minnesota on the road 20-17 as 4-point underdogs, while Chicago was upset at home by Green Bay 38-20 as 1-point favorites. Now the Bucs are 3-point favorites over the Bears in Week 2 after the lookahead line had the Bears -2 for this game. So that's a 5-point adjustment that's not warranted.
We all knew Minnesota would come back to the pack this year after going 11-0 in one-score games and actually getting outscored on the season last year. But with that being said, the Vikings still should have won that game when you dive into the box score.
The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards. They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play. They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.
Baker Mayfield isn't all of a sudden the savior for the Bucs. He hasn't won in this league, and he's not going to be a winner in Tampa Bay, either. Mayfield's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite. When he has expectations, he fails to meet them. You want Mayfield in the underdog role with a chip on his shoulder.
Speaking of chip on their shoulder, the Bears will have that this week after a misleading 38-20 loss to the Packers in Week 1. Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards by Green Bay in that game, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0. The defense wasn't as bad as the 38 points would suggest considering they held the Packers to 329 total yards.
There is expected to be rain in Tampa Bay Sunday. That's going to favor the team that wants to run the ball, which is the Bears. They rushed for 122 yards and 4.2 per carry against the Packers. The Bucs could only muster 73 rushing yards on 33 attempts against the Vikings, or just 2.2 yards per carry. That's really poor when you consider the Eagles rushed for 259 yards and 5.4 per carry against the Vikings Thursday night. The Bears held the Packers to 92 rushing yards on 32 attempts for 2.9 per carry.
Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in games played on grass over the last two seasons. The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game. Plays on road teams (Chicago) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 (91.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|09-17-23||Raiders v. Bills -9||10-38||Win||100||109 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Buffalo Bills -9
The Buffalo Bills beat up on bad teams. It's just what they do. You know they are going to want to beat up on the Raiders Sunday to get the sour taste out of their mouths from blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Jets on Monday Night Football. I think they lost their focus due to Aaron Rodgers going out with injury, and they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets.
The Bills could have simply kneeled and punted every possession in the 2nd half and won the game. Instead, they committed four turnovers to give the game away, and Josh Allen made a bunch of mistakes that he doesn't normally make. It's fair that he was rusty in the opener and playing an elite Jets defense that has his number. Now he takes a big step down in class here against this soft Las Vegas defense and will be looking to make a statement.
I love backing 0-1 teams like the Bills coming off an upset loss against a 1-0 team like the Raiders coming off an upset win. This line should be double-digits, but due to the overreaction from last week we are getting the Bills as single-digit favorites as a result.
The Raiders managed to upset the Broncos 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week. The Broncos were playing their first game under Sean Payton and had some injuries, including their best WR in Jerry Jeudy sitting. They made just enough plays to win that game.
I'm not a Jimmy Garoppolo believer. He can't hang with Allen and the Bills in a shootout. While Buffalo is almost fully healthy for this one, Las Vegas lost its No. 2 receiver in Jakobi Meyers to a concussion against the Broncos last week. Their offense will be significantly hampered without Meyers as the Bills can simply focus on stopping Davante Adams.
Josh Allen is 16-1 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more in his career and his teams usually dominate in this spot. He is 44-13 as a favorite overall with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game, and 27-7 as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|09-17-23||Chiefs v. Jaguars +3||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||158 h 6 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Jaguars AFC No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3
I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a legit Super Bowl contender this season. While the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets were getting all of the hype coming into the season, the Jaguars are the sleeper team that could win it all. They will be out to prove that Sunday with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs coming to town.
The Jaguars also want revenge from two losses to the Chiefs last season. They lost 27-17 on the road as 10-point underdogs during the regular season and 27-20 as 10-point road dogs in the playoffs. They hung right with the Chiefs only getting outgained by 13 yards in that playoff meeting. Now they get the Chiefs at home this time around.
You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now. They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection. They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road. Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win. Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.
The Jaguars also have playmakers all over the defense and held the Colts to 280 total yards and 4.1 yards per play. They can more than hold their own on this side of the ball, and now they are very familiar with Kansas City's system having played them twice. Travis Kelce may return this week from a knee injury, but he won't be 100% after sitting out the Detroit game. Patrick Mahomes just wasn't comfortable with his receivers without him.
Everyone is on the Chiefs with over 80% of the bets and over 80% of the money just automatically assuming their going to bounce back. I'll go contrarian here and back the Jaguars, who I have power-rated much higher than most this season. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for the winners and the losers, and I question Kansas City's motivation early in the season when these games don't matter as much. I know we're going to get 100% effort from the Jaguars playing with double-revenge from last season after the Chiefs ended their season.
Plays on home teams (Jacksonville) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, a team that had a winning record last season are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents. Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a divisional road win. Doug Pederson is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach. Bet Jacksonville Sunday.
|09-17-23||Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 50.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||158 h 6 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5
You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now. They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection. They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road. Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win. Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.
As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company. Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce. You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one.
The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season. They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings. No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley.
Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot. Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-17-23||Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 46.5||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||109 h 0 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week. Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns. I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week.
The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards. Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time. But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards.
Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday. The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now. RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year. The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points. As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total. It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday.
Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games. Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively. Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-14-23||Vikings +7.5 v. Eagles||Top||28-34||Win||100||93 h 14 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Minnesota +7.5
Two teams coming off misleading finals square off Thursday night. The Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-17 as 4-point favorites when they had no business losing that game when you dive into the box score. The Philadelphia Eagles won 25-20 at New England to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a game they had no business winning when you look at the box score.
Backing 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS against 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS in Week 2 is a winning proposition. It's simply fading public perception and overreactions from Week 1. The Vikings are much better than their final score showed against the Bucs, while the Eagles aren't nearly as good as their final score showed against the Patriots.
The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards. They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play. They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once. The Vikings look to have an improved defense this year, which is something they have been missing. And the offense is as explosive as ever.
The Patriots basically handed the Eagles two touchdowns with a 70-yard interception return TD and another turnover that set up a short field only minutes later. The Eagles led 16-0 in a blink of an eye in the first quarter. But the Patriots were the much better team for the final three quarters.
The Patriots outgained the Eagles 382 to 251, or by 131 total yards. The Patriots outgained the Eagles 4.9 yards per play to 4.1, or by 0.8 yards per play. The Eagles struggled to get anything going offensively, and now that teams have film on Jalen Hurts he might not be nearly as good as he was last year. Hurts only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush and was sacked three times.
The Vikings want revenge from a 24-7 loss on primetime to the Eagles last year. That was a rare game decided by more than one score for the Vikings. In fact, 13 of their last 17 games have been decided by one score dating back to last season. LB Dean is out for the Eagles, CB Bradberry is doubtful, and DT Cox is questionable to really make their defense short-handed. The Vikings are nearly fully healthy for this one. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|09-11-23||Bills v. Jets +2.5||Top||16-22||Win||100||145 h 11 m||Show|
20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5
The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now. They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb. The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.
The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason. The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1. The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list. Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line. I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there. The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.
Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times. Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog. Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013. Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998. Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them. Bet the Jets Monday.
|09-10-23||Cowboys v. Giants +3.5||40-0||Loss||-115||122 h 37 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5
The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game. That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.
I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat. I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term. The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength. They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week. RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout. The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.
Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year. They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt. The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.
Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy. The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|09-10-23||Panthers v. Falcons -3.5||10-24||Win||100||114 h 18 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5
The Atlanta Falcons will contend for a NFC South title this year. Desmond Ridder got his feet wet at the end of last season and is now familiar with the offense and ready to hit the ground running in 2023. They drafted RB Bijan Robinson, who will be an impact player right away and the Falcons should challenge for leading the league in rushing this year. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two solid weapons on the outside.
After being ranked dead last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons, upgrading the pass rush was a necessity this offseason. They did just that by adding DE Calais Campbell, LB Bud Dupree and DT David Onyemata, who along with Grady Jarrett will wreak havoc in opposing backfield this season.
The Carolina Panthers looked terrible in the preseason even when starters were out there against opposing teams' backups. No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line. RB Miles Sanders and WR's DJ Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall are highly questionable to play Sunday with injuries. And the defense doesn't generate any pressure with the exception of LB Brian Burns, who is holding out waiting for a contract extension. What a me
Atlanta should control this game from start to finish by using long, extended drives on the ground to wear out this Carolina defense. I like the additions they made this offseason to upgrade their front seven defensively, so they should be able to manhandle this weak Carolina offensive line and make life very difficult on Young. No. 1 picks at QB making the first start of the season are 0-13-1 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 tries. The last No. 1 pick to win their first start was David Carr way back in 2002. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|09-10-23||Titans +3.5 v. Saints||15-16||Win||100||114 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5
Another year, another chance for the betting public to disrespect Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans. He and the Titans do the best work when they are counted out, and it looks like they are being counted out again in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.
Ryan Tannehill is entering a contract year and has plenty of motivation. Henry just keeps on ticking and had 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year despite missing his starting left tackler for all but one game. They signed former first-round pick Andre Dillard to replace Tayler Lewan while also drafting LG Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick to upgrade the offensive line. They signed DeAndre Hopkins at receiver to make a nice 1-2 punch with the talented Treylon Burks on the outside.
The Titans have a great defense led by Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teir Tart up front, and a stellar safety tandem in Kevin Byard and Armani Hooker protecting the back end. The pass rush gets a big boost with the return of Harold Landry, who tore his ACL in late August last year and didn't play a single snap in 2022. He had 12.5 sacks in 2021.
Derek Carr will be making his first start with a new team behind a shoddy offensive line. Alvin Kamara won't be available as he serves a four-game suspension, and the Saints just haven't been nearly as explosive without their dynamic back on the field. The New Orleans Saints lack a pass rush defensively, and the Titans have the big coaching advantage with Vrabel over Dennis Allen, especially with all offseason to prepare for this game.
Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach. Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite as a starting quarterback. Allen is 15-38 SU & 21-31-1 ATS as a head coach. New Orleans is 6-9 SU at home over the past two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span. Bet the Titans Sunday.
|09-10-23||Bengals v. Browns +3||Top||3-24||Win||100||114 h 17 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cleveland +3
Deshaun Watson shook off some rust last season after returning from an 11-game suspension. He should hit the ground running in 2023 now that he has two years in the system. He has one of the best running games to rely on so he doesn't have to be the guy he was in Houston, though he is still capable of being that guy when they need him to.
Speaking of rust, the Cincinnati Bengals could be rusty with Joe Burrow returning from injury. He didn't play at all in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start. I also expect the Browns to win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one as they have the better offensive and defensive lines, and you know the Dawg Pound will be rocking for the season-opener, providing them with a big home-field advantage.
This Cleveland defense was a disappointment last year, but they had some major upgrades this offseason. They signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who is an excellent run-stuffer and can rush the passer. They also signed another former Viking in DE Za'Darius Smith, who collected 10 sacks for Minnesota last year.
Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last five home meetings with Cleveland, including a 32-13 win as 3-point home underdogs last year. They rushed for 172 yards in that win and outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 yards in that home win. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|09-10-23||49ers v. Steelers +2.5||Top||30-7||Loss||-110||114 h 17 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Steelers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +2.5
No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Pittsburgh Steelers. They went 3-0 winning all three games by double-digits while outscoring the opposition 78-32. Kenny Pickett is ready to go after getting his feet wet as a rookie last year. He has some great weapons on the outside and is quickly forming a great chemistry with George Pickens. The Steelers have a great offensive line and solid running game with Najee Harris.
But the strength of the Steelers is their defense, and they have been a different beast when TJ Watt has been healthy. They went 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS with Watt on the field last year and ranked 6th against the pass, while they were 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. I think their defense will give Brock Purdy and this average 49ers offensive line fits. Remember, Purdy is coming back from offseason elbow surgery, so he could show some rust. And I think having game film on him now gives Mike Tomlin a big edge to try and take away his strengths and make Purdy make mistakes.
Speaking of importance of pass rushers, Nick Bosa is holding out to try and get a new contract. He and Watt may very well be the two best pass rushers in the game right now. The 49ers lost to the Falcons without Bosa last year, and badly. San Francisco's weakness defensively is the secondary, and that will get exploited if Bosa isn't on the field. Watt will have his way against the 49ers who will be starting a new tackle.
The 49ers are notorious slow starters under Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in Week 1. They were upset by the lowly Chicago Bears on the road last season. This is only the second time the Steelers have been home underdogs in Week 1 since 2000. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three Week 1 games, including an upset win at Buffalo last year. The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when the line is +3 to -3. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|09-07-23||Lions +6 v. Chiefs||Top||21-20||Win||100||53 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lions/Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Opener on Detroit +6
Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice this week and is doubtful to play Thursday. He means everything to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes because he's his security blanket on 3rd down and in the red zone. Kelce finished with 210 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 TD last year. He has topped 83 receptions and 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and hasn't missed a game other than when they were resting starters.
DT Chris Jones is out Thursday due to a holdout as contract negotiations have stalled. He had 15.5 sacks last year and is their best player on defense. So the Chiefs are missing two of their three best players to start the 2023 season. They are extremely vulnerable here as a 6-point favorite in a game they will likely lose outright, and at the very least struggle to get out with a close win.
The upstart Detroit Lions went 8-2 in their final 10 games last year to make a run at the playoffs. They beat the Packers in Week 17 on the road to keep them out. They finished 9-8 for their first winning record since 2017. They scored 26.6 points per game and average 380 yards per game with a Top 5 offense in the NFL. The defense got better as the season progressed and an influx of talent on that side of the ball should have them improving again this season. They are also extremely healthy to start the season.
Jared Goff looks as comfortable as he's ever been in Detroit. He is also 6-0 ATS in Week 1 as a starting quarterback. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games in the first half of the season. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Lions. Detroit is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog. Dan Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Detroit. Bet the Lions Thursday.
|02-12-23||Chiefs v. Eagles -120||Top||38-35||Loss||-120||105 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120
Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets
This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass. The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season. And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles. Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.
The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part. Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line. He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves. The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1). The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed. Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.
A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL. And while true, they handled their business. A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game. They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl. They couldn't possibly be more fresh.
Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs. They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals. They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%. They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up. The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.
This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it. When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries. The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes. But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses. I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.
The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season. Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games. The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001. Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.
FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:
These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.
Eagles 1H ML: -120
OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160
Kelce Anytime TD: -125
Eagles Most Sacks: -125
Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125
UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165
Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135
Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120
Sanders Anytime TD: +125
Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110
Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110
Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115
Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125
Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140
2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120
Super Bowl MVP Bets:
|01-29-23||Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48||Top||20-23||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48
Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself. Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable. And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line. All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game. Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.
Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points. They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those. They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.
Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch. They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games. They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games. They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons. They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses. That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City. The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games. Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5
|01-29-23||49ers +3 v. Eagles||Top||7-31||Loss||-115||6 h 0 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3
I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning. Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better. The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.
The 49ers are the better team in my opinion. They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak. They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.
The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games. This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.
One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game. The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall. They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances. The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall. They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.
The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense. In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders. Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry. The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air. He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.
Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco. I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two. I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5
|01-22-23||Cowboys v. 49ers -4||Top||12-19||Win||100||50 h 53 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4
This line should be closer to 49ers -7. The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs. They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.
Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week. These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys. They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys. This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.
They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback. The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road. They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game. Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.
The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play. They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses. They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.
Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs. The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run. Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team. Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady. The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too. They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.
Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game. They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell. They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that. They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home. They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road. And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home. They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents. The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot. The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB. That performance can be forgiven. When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant. The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.
The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too. Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco. The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game. San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season. The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season. The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993. Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||27-10||Loss||-110||46 h 23 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5
These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round. The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens. Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week. They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.
The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year. They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.
The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins. They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points. But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins. Look for them to clean it up this week.
The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week. They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense. That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards. Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.
A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line. The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills. Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game. He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out. The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times. And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find. I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.
Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season. Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis. This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.
The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game. Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo. The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs UNDER 53||Top||20-27||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53
This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs. The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar. They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.
The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall. That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead. That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode. That result has inflated this total this week.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points. The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat. The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch. And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it. That makes them a great UNDER team.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game. The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-16-23||Cowboys v. Bucs +3||Top||31-14||Loss||-115||165 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993. Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season. The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting. The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.
Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career. Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games. He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington. He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.
The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites. Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out. That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.
Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line. Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win. He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line. The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.
I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense. The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games. The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.
The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense. The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play. They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.
Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round. The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th. The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round. If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.
The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|01-14-23||Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5||30-31||Win||100||68 h 42 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Jaguars AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville +2.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars have all the momentum heading into the playoffs. They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games overall and needed every single victory just to get into the playoffs. Teams that come into the playoffs with momentum are dangerous teams.
That explains why Brandon Staley played his starters for so long with Herbert and Allen still in the game well into the 4th quarter against the Broncos last week. But they fell short 28-31, which ended their four-game winning streak. They put a lot into that game to try and win it, and it proved costly as two of their best players in DE Bosa and WR Williams left the field with injuries. Bosa is good to go this week even if hobbled, but Williams was carted off with a back injury and is very questionable.
The key to the Chargers' turnaround down the stretch was getting both WR Williams and WR Allen back on the field healthy. But without Williams they are much easier to defense because he is such a great deep ball threat, and a great jump ball receiver in red zone opportunities. I have no doubt head coach Staley regrets his decision to play the starters in a meaningless Week 18 game.
The Jaguars have a big rest advantage here as they beat the Titans on Saturday last week, so they will be on normal rest. The Chargers played on Sunday and will now be on a short week with travel having to fly down to Jacksonville. The edge in rest and preparation goes to the Jaguars, and the coaching edge certainly goes to the Jaguars as well. Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS as a head coach in the playoffs guiding the Eagles to a Super Bowl win even with Nick Foles. Staley will be making his first playoff appearance as a head coach, as well most of their players.
A lot of people want to throw out that first meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers this season because Herbert was coming back from injury, and they didn't have Williams or Allen. Those are fair points. But the Jaguars beat them 38-10 and totally dominated. Trevor Lawrence went 28-of-39 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks. They rushed for 151 yards as a team. They held the Chargers to just 312 total yards despite playing come from behind style football.
A lot is being made of this QB battle between Lawrence and Herbert, but I think a key factor is that the Jaguars are going to be able to run the football while the Chargers are not. That will make life much easier on Lawrence and much more difficult on Herbert. Lawrence has been great down the stretch with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is living up to his full potential under Pederson.
The Chargers rank 28th against the run allowing 145.8 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 5.4 yards per carry. The Jaguars rank 12th against the run at 114.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per carry. Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 1,125 yards and 5.1 per carry this season, is going to have a monster game to lead the way. I trust Pederson to stick to the run knowing this is his greatest advantage in this game.
The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games. Wrong team favored here given all the factors working in Jacksonville's favor, including momentum, rushing, coaching and rest and preparation advantages. Roll with the Jaguars Saturday.
BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:
7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better
6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5
|01-14-23||Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 43||Top||23-41||Loss||-110||113 h 55 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43
There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning. It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case. We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals. The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting. Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD. The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again. Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play.
So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play. Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season.
Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch. They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch. They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs. But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well.
Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012. The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:
7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better
6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5
|01-08-23||Cowboys v. Commanders +7||6-26||Win||100||66 h 49 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7
The Dallas Cowboys are technically still alive for the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title. But the Philadelphia Eagles are 14-point favorites over the New York Giants, who are expected to be resting starters. They would need the Eagles to lose, and it's just unlikely to happen and they know it. Expect the Cowboys to maybe try for a quarter or two, but to pull their starters in the second half.
Either way, the Washington Commanders are capable of hanging with the Cowboys even if they were to play all their starters for four quarters. The Cowboys are getting getting too much respect for their 6-1 run to close out the season. The run has come against the Giants, Colts, Texans and Eagles at home as well as the Titans on the road.
The Titans were playing their backups last week in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter, the Eagles should have beaten them even with Gardner Minshew, and the Cowboys needed a last-second TD to beat the Texans in three of their last four games, while also losing outright at Jacksonville in between.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Commanders after going 0-3-1 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule of the Giants (twice), 49ers and Browns. They were competitive in all four games. They outgained the Giants by 99 yards in a tie, outgained the Giants by 95 yards ina. loss, were only outgained by 22 yards by the 49ers in a misleading final, and were only outgained by 41 yards by the Browns in a misleading final.
Carson Wentz returned to the field and promptly threw 3 interceptions to cost them the game against the Browns last week. So getting Sam Howell at QB or a mix of him and Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade. Howell could give this offense a spark, and he won't stop coming for four quarters. The Commanders won't lay down for the Cowboys as these are their hated rivals. They will try to win this game, and it should be enough to stay inside this inflated number Sunday.
The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine January games. Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. Roll with the Commanders Sunday.
|01-08-23||Browns v. Steelers -2.5||Top||14-28||Win||100||112 h 53 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Mike Tomlin has never finished worth than .500 in his career as a head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. These players take on his mentality and have dug themselves out of a hole to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. With a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins on Sunday, the Steelers will be going to the playoffs. Both the Patriots and Dolphins are underdogs in their games.
This turnaround has happened since TJ Watt returned from injury. Pittsburgh is 58-26-2 with Watt and 1-10 without him in his career. The Steelers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Ravens 14-16 after committing three turnovers in the red zone. They deserved to win that game, too. They have also beat the Colts, Falcons and Panthers on the road as well as the Raiders at home.
Watt and this Pittsburgh defense aren't allowing anything. They have held their last six opponents all to 17 points or fewer and an average of just 14.7 points and 259.2 yards per game in those six games. The last three games have been mighty impressive as they outgained the Panthers by 116 yards and held them to 209 yards, outgained the Raiders by 149 yards and held them to 201 yards and outgained the Ravens by 111 yards and held them to 240 yards.
Kenny Pickett is proving he was deserving as the pick to become their franchise quarterback. He has delivered two clutch game-winning drives the last two weeks and is his confidence is growing because of it, and so is the confidence his teammates have in him. Pickett is taking care of the football, too. He has thrown just one interception in his last six starts.
The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect for their upset win at Washington last week. Carson Wentz gave that game away by throwing three interceptions. Deshaun Watson only had nine completions in the win and has been worse than Jacoby Brissett. Watson is completing just 56.7% of his passes for 872 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt in his five starts this season.
The key matchup here is that the Steelers are going to control this game by running the football at will against a soft Cleveland run defense. The Steelers have rushed for at least 102 yards in seven of their last eight games overall as they are riding Najee Harris. The Browns rank 25th against the run allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 25th allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing its 2nd consecutive road game. Kevin Stefanski is 3-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of the Browns. The Browns are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games v. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Browns. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|01-08-23||Jets v. Dolphins||Top||6-11||Win||100||112 h 53 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins PK
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Miami Dolphins. They have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall with each of their last four losses coming by one score. They were in a one-score game with the 49ers as well in the 4th quarter in a misleading loss. So they easily could have won any of their last five games.
The Dolphins definitely should have won their last two games as they outgained the Packers by 75 yards in a loss and outgained the Patriots by 84 yards in a loss. But Tua threw three interceptions after getting concussed against the Packers, and Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six against the Patriots that changed the game and knocked him out of the game on the same play.
The Dolphins will likely go to third-string QB Skylar Thompson for this one, and this line is being adjusted too much because of it. Thompson has gotten his feet wet in a few games already this season and has handled himself well. Giving him an entire week to prepare to be the starter will pay big dividends for him. He is ready for this moment.
Let's just look at this from a motivation perspective. The Dolphins still have a great chance to make the playoffs because a win and a loss by the Patriots gets them in. Well, the Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Buffalo Bills as of this writing. The Bills need that game to secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, so they won't make it easy on the Patriots. I would say the Dolphins are actually the favorites to get the final wild card spot in the AFC given the scenarios.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 23-6 loss at Seattle last week. That followed up a 19-3 home loss to Jacksonville. I always like fading teams coming off their 'dream crusher' loss because they have a hard time getting back up off the mat. The Jets will have a hard time being motivated for this game after just getting eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.
Plays on home teams (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East opponents. Miami is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.
This is also a tough travel spot for the Jets having to come fly home to New York from Seattle to fly back out to Miami to play a game where the temps will be approaching 80 degrees, and I expect the Jets to run out of gas by the 4th quarter. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|01-07-23||Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||91 h 23 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage. They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs. Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.
They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system. And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.
The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers. Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller. Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score. The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.
The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition. That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season. They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites. That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week. Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas. Bet the Raiders Saturday.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||110 h 6 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt. They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.
The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL. They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season. Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more. After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.
While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play. That's unheard of for a 12-3 team. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed. That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.
Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday. He does not handle these big stages well. It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one. I think they're the better team right now and need it more.
Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|01-01-23||Rams v. Chargers OVER 40.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||110 h 5 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5
The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football. I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.
This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury. The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two. Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.
The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback. And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable. That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense. Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.
The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield. Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run. They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry. So Mayfield will not have to do it all. I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.
I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be. Those totals were all 45 or higher. Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion. This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late. And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.
The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Jets v. Seahawks OVER 41.5||6-23||Loss||-110||110 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5
Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week. This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco. This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast. It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.
The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense. The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play. This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.
White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week. He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well. The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.
No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week. The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals. The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 41||19-20||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41
The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week. As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played. It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game.
The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week. He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL. He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play.
Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons. We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams. I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts. Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game.
The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Saints v. Eagles OVER 44||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44
The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts. He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week. I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts.
The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall. The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games. They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number.
This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games. But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well. The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week. They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team. I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia.
After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia. The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday. That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game.
The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.