|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-05-22||Saints v. Bucs -3.5||Top||16-17||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5
This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week. That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home. Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch. That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department. Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go. The defense still remains one of the best units in the league. The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.
The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted. They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out. Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play. The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.
New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week. Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Bucs Monday.
|12-04-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 53||24-27||Loss||-105||66 h 35 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53
This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL. We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.
Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season. Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.
The return of those two cannot be overstated. Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season. Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.
Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall. Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Dolphins +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||17-33||Loss||-110||142 h 34 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5
The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season. That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills. And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.
Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result. But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers. They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior. So they are as fresh as they can be right now.
The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week. Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half. They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs. That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.
No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL. But I just don't trust their offense to get margin. This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most. Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager. And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.
The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season. When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss. I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer. Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores. And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away. They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.
The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much. The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win. Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-04-22||Seahawks -7 v. Rams||Top||27-23||Loss||-110||64 h 3 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7
The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form. And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl. But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers. Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.
The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs. They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins. It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense. They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air. He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.
I love the spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders. They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh. And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive. Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.
The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle. This will be the first game he has missed this season. Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.
The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about. I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle. Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jets v. Vikings OVER 44.5||22-27||Win||100||62 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5
The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games. But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late. They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play. They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.
The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense. He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week. He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore. White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.
The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers. They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with. Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals. Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.
Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game. The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games. The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf. The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jaguars v. Lions OVER 50.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||69 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play. The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.
The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either. They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season. But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week. I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.
The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense. They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall. Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.
The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games. The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-01-22||Bills -3 v. Patriots||Top||24-10||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills are the better team, period. They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play. These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.
The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|12-01-22||Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game. This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo. In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game. That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.
Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career. He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards. Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings. And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.
New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-28-22||Steelers v. Colts OVER 39||Top||24-17||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39
Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week. The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles. I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.
The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury. They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles. They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving. Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.
The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett. After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week. Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-22||Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5||40-34||Loss||-110||63 h 2 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out. They won those four games all by double-digits. They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch. They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.
This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week. But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage. I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.
Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt. They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury. They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.
Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season. Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play. Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.
Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle. The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-27-22||Broncos v. Panthers +2||10-23||Win||100||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2
The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs. They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs. They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.
This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback. He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker. I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well. But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.
The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games. Denver is doing nothing well offensively. The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game. They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry. With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.
No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos. They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL. They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.
This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point. Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons. I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.
Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|11-27-22||Bucs -3 v. Browns||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||158 h 56 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams. They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.
Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week. They are as healthy as they have been all season. Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week. Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.
The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall. They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved. Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too. They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve. The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength. They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.
But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense. They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play. The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week. The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off. He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out. Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.
The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed. The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss. I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week. It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|11-27-22||Ravens v. Jaguars +4||Top||27-28||Win||100||158 h 56 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4
I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson. First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.
Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate. Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games. The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.
Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7. This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward. The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.
Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina. It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken. It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.
Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury. TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR. Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games. Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.
Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run. The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game. They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.
Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot. Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach. The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-27-22||Falcons v. Commanders -3||Top||13-19||Win||100||158 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3
The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC. They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them. I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.
The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback. Players love this guy. He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins. The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts. But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.
Atlanta can't match Washington defensively. The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed. Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.
There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground. That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury. The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing. Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry. They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21. They may get Chase Young back, too.
Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games. The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.
Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington. The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games. It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them. Take the Commanders Sunday.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -8||20-28||Push||0||90 h 32 m||Show|
15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8
The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit. Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.
Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss. They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.
Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards. Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards. Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions. The secondary is a major concern moving forward. Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week. As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable. Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter. They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards. The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.
Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game. Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season. He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury. This Dallas defense has been elite all season. They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play. That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3. One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback. So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.
The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games. Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall. Take the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-24-22||Bills v. Lions OVER 52.5||Top||28-25||Win||100||85 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5
I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday. I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.
The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play. Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.
It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play. They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games. They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.
The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football. After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week. The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week. This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.
The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall. The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season. The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-21-22||49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals||38-10||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7.5
The San Francisco 49ers are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL the healthier they get. After beating the Rams 31-14 on the road three weeks ago, they came back from their bye with a 22-16 home win over the Chargers. It was more dominant than that scored showed as the 49ers outgained the Chargers by 149 yards.
Speaking of dominant, the 49ers have dominant numbers this season. They rank 9th in total offense at 360.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game and 3rd at 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best numbers in the entire NFL.
The Cardinals are 19th in total offense at 333.7 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play. Arizona is 23rd in total defense at 357.6 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 24 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Cardinals. They still don't know whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy will be their quarterback as both are banged up. Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing several starters and cannot protect anyone. They will also be without two of their best weapons in TE Zach Ertz and WR Marquise Brown, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable as well. They just cannot be trusted with all of these injuries right now, and their lack of depth will be tested playing in the altitude in Mexico City.
The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a non-conference game. San Francisco is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 Monday Night Football games. Arizona is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a good offensive team that averages 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC West opponents. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC West foes. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday Night Football games. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-20-22||Chiefs v. Chargers +6||30-27||Win||100||77 h 58 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6
Let's just start out by looking at this from a line value perspective. The Chargers were 4-point underdogs in their 24-27 loss at Kansas City earlier this season. Now they are 6-point home underdogs in the rematch. There's clearly value on the Chargers given the change in venue from the first meeting, though they admittedly don't have much home-field advantage.
The Chargers are 'all in' this week. This game will determine whether or not they have a chance to win the division. They need this game more than the Chiefs do. That's evident by the fact that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice this week and are expected to go. Allen has just six receptions on the season and has basically been out all year. Williams has missed the past two games. It's amazing the Chargers sit at 5-4 without these guys. But this is as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's going to make a major difference this week.
The Chiefs have small cornerbacks outside, so Allen and Williams can use their size to make plays for Justin Herbert. He doesn't have to dink and dunk it down the field anymore like he has been doing without these guys. Herbert has never lost as an underdog of 5-plus points in his career with a perfect ATS record in this spot.
The Chiefs are the ones with the injury problems this week. Patrick Mahomes is going to be without his two favorite receivers in JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman. JuJu has 46 receptions for 615 yards and two touchdowns and was really forming a nice chemistry with Mahomes before being knocked out of the game against the Jaguars last week. Hardman has 25 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns and is their most explosive receiver.
One hidden gem here is that Derwin James owns Travis Kelce. In his career when matched up against James, Kelce averages just 1.2 yards per target. James shuts him down, and he will blanket Kelce again in this game knowing that Mahomes is limited on weapons. I think this Kansas City offense will look lost this week.
The Chiefs haven't won any of their last five meetings with the Chargers by more than 6 points. And that 6-point victory came in overtime. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Chiefs are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games. They were fortunate to cover by 0.5 against the Jaguars last week as Jacksonville missed two field goals. They won't be so fortunate this week as I think Los Angeles wins this game outright. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||102 h 47 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1
I love this spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week. They were coming off their bye last week and blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Green Bay Packers. They will be pissed off from that defeat, and I look for them to take it out on the Minnesota Vikings this week. They were previously 195-0 when having at least a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in franchise history.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are feeling fat and happy from their OT win in Buffalo. It took a miracle fumble by Josh Allen on the goal line for them to win that game. They've had every break possible go their way this season, and at some point their luck is going to run out. I believe that to be this week against the Cowboys, who are clearly the better team and favored for good reason here.
Amazingly, Minnesota is 8-1 this season despite getting outgained by 25 yards per game and outgained by 0.5 yards per play. That's the definition of a miracle. They have the numbers more of a team that is below .500 than one that is 8-1. But they're 7-0 in one score games, which has been the difference. I don't believe this will be a one score game as I have Dallas blowing them out of the building.
Worst case these teams are even on offense, but Dallas has a way better defense. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 11th in total defense at 324.8 yards per game and 6th in allowing just 5.0 yards per play. Minnesota ranks 29th in total defense allowing 381.2 yards per game and 28th in allowing 5.9 yards per play. At some point, their leaky defense is going to catch up with them, and I think it'll be this week.
Dallas is likely to get Anthony Barr back at linebacker, which will allow Micah Parsons to get back on the defensive line and rush the passer more. They are much better when he's rushing the passer than when he's in coverage, though he can do it all. Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary and is terrible defending the pass.
They run a Cover 2 shell to try and mask it, but Dak Prescott has the 2nd-best passer rating in the NFL against the Cover 2 shell over the last two seasons. The Vikings will be without DT Tomlinson, while the Cowboys get RB Elliott back this week, so they should be able to impose their will by running the football with plenty of success. That will open up things for Dak against that Cover 2 shell look.
The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-20-22||Eagles v. Colts +7||17-16||Win||100||70 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +7
The Indianapolis Colts saved their season last week with a 25-20 upset win in Las Vegas. It was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. They racked up 415 total yards on offense and outgained the Raiders by 106 yards. Three key moves made the difference.
The Jeff Saturday hire gave the team a boost and they seemed to respond well to him despite all the negative media attention. Keep in mind there are some proven assistants on this staff that are helping Saturday out in former head coaches Gus Bradley and John Fox. Matt Ryan returned to the starting lineup and he's a big upgrade over Sam Ehlinger. But the biggest key was getting star RB Johnathan Taylor back from injury. He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown and looked like his former self.
Now the Colts at least have a mediocre offense, which is all they need to help out what is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Indeed, the Colts rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 307.0 yards per game and 5th with just 4.9 yards per play allowed. I would argue they have a better defense than Philadelphia when you factor in the schedule.
The Colts have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the NFL while the Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. That's why Philadelphia is 8-1 and why the Eagles' numbers are inflated. They were exposed last week in a 32-21 home loss to Washington as an 11-point favorite on Monday Night Football. I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect. And now they are going on the road on a short week and laying 7 points to the Colts when they shouldn't be.
The Eagles really miss DT Jordan Davis who is their best defensive linemen. Now they lost TE Dallas Goedert and could be without WR AJ Brown, who injured his ankle against the Commanders early and wasn't the same when he returned. Brown was held to one catch for 7 yards. Davante Smith also has a banged up knee and is questionable alongside Brown. Those are their top three receivers by a wide margin as they all have over 40 receptions, over 480 yards apiece and have combined for 12 touchdown receptions.
Philadelphia's passing game is going to be compromised this week at the very least. They will look to get back to running the football, but that makes this a great matchup for the Colts. They rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Only the 49ers have been better.
Indianapolis was only a 4.5-point home underdog to Kansas City earlier this season and won outright. Now they are 7-point underdogs to the Eagles. They can't be bigger dogs against the Eagles than they were against the Chiefs. This line should be much closer to Eagles -3. The Colts are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as home dogs of 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit home loss. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-20-22||Browns v. Bills OVER 48||Top||23-31||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Browns OVER 48
I was betting on the Cleveland Browns and the UNDER when this game was supposed to be played in a couple feet of snow. That would have benefited Cleveland and their running game. But now that this game is being played in a dome in Detroit, it benefits the Bills more, but it really benefits the OVER more than anything.
Buffalo will now be able to be in its comfort zone, which is having Josh Allen drop back and make plays with his arm and his feet. This is arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 1st in total offense and 424.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Playing in a dome they are going to be pretty much unstoppable.
We saw what happened to this Cleveland defense last week playing in perfect conditions in Miami against another team that likes to throw it around the yard and has great team speed. They gave up 39 points and 491 total yards to the Dolphins. The Browns rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 25th allowing 5.8 yards per play. They have injuries in their secondary and just lost starting CB Greg Newsome II to a concussion in practice in an accidental collision on Friday to make things worse. They have no chance of stopping Buffalo.
The Browns will be able to get their running game going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game their last three games. And they're going to be without their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds, who left the previous game with a knee injury. They were already without Micah Hyde and Tredavious White and could be without Jordan Poyer as well. All these injuries have had the Bills with a leaky defense in recent weeks.
But I do expect the Bills to have the lead for the majority of this game and Jacoby Brissett to try and have to play from behind, which will speed up their offense. The Browns have a better offense than they get credit for. They are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 375.9 yards per game and 11th at 5.6 yards per play.
Let's just look at this from a value perspective. Books opened this total at 47.5 when it was supposed to be played in Buffalo knowing what the forecast was. It got bet all the way down to 41 as bettors caught wind of the forecast. Now they reopened it at 48, which is only 0.5 higher than the original opener in Buffalo. That makes no sense since this is being played in a dome. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in these perfect conditions for a shootout.
Buffalo is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bills are 6-0 OVER in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Buffalo is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-17-22||Titans v. Packers -3||27-17||Loss||-115||25 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT). I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless. Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye. I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.
Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense. They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers. No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.
I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time. Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season. They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston. They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.
This is a terrible spot for the Titans. They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days. They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week. They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report. The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.
Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense. This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee. The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.
Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-14-22||Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 44.5||Top||32-21||Loss||-110||93 h 34 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5
Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season. UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games. I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.
Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well. In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings. That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total. The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points. So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.
The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season. They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.
The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five. They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.
The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game. The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football. But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run. They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages. They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.
Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins. The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-13-22||Chargers +7 v. 49ers||16-22||Win||100||107 h 47 m||Show|
15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7
The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5. The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta. So what has changed since the lookahead line? Nothing really. So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.
I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh. And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries. Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game. The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out. The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them. People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them. San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat. The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.
The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan. Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more. The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-13-22||Cowboys -4 v. Packers||Top||28-31||Loss||-110||65 h 56 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4
The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles. They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.
So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back. He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way. But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.
Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy. Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL. He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys. He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.
The Packers are a mess injury-wise. They have 15 more players on the injury report. THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week. Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week. That leaves them very thin at the position. They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season. Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.
Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week. If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week. Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season. That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat. They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-13-22||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||17-27||Loss||-110||60 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate. All six losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so getting 9.5 points per is some value. Their first two wins came by 24 over the Colts and by 28 over the Chargers. They finally won a close game last week with a 27-20 comeback win over the Raiders, and that victory will give them some confidence heading into this game with the Chiefs.
Jacksonville ranks 8th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 11th at 5.7 yards per play. The Jaguars rank 16th in total defense at 343.4 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, which are numbers of a 5-4 or better team not one that is 3-6. So the Jaguars are undervalued due to their record and catching too many points this week as a result.
Kansas City just cannot be trusted as a big favorite. We saw that last week as they needed OT to beat the Titans with a backup QB in Willis, 20-17 as 14-point favorites. So this is now a bad spot for the Chiefs off an OT game. Home favorites coming off an OT home win are 23-41 ATS over the last 64 tries. They have a big divisional showdown on deck with the Chargers, making this a sandwich spot.
The Titans ran for 172 yards on the Chiefs last week, which is their weakness. The Jaguars average 147 rushing yards pre game and 5.1 per carry, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground to keep them in this game and keep the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.
Kansas City is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining 450 or yards per game on average in its last three games. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-13-22||Broncos +3 v. Titans||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||144 h 13 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3
The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games. They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer. Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.
Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage. Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week. This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball. But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.
What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play. I love backing good defensive teams. The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.
Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion. It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night. Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.
This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired. The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense. I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.
The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued. They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game. They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are. They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.
I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||99 h 27 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4
I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week. They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season. They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards. That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.
Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record. They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game. Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.
The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover. The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3. But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer. They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.
The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams. They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road. The Browns are better than all three of those teams. And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.
I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense. Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week. Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt. There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.
This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua. He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears. CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Browns Sunday.
|11-07-22||Ravens v. Saints +4||Top||27-13||Loss||-110||189 h 0 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4
The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now. That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.
New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play. The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.
The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season. They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers. That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.
Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals. They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards. Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.
Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season. The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards. They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense. Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.
The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team. They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play. They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.
Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field. Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field. I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7. I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa. I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.
The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury. That would be two huge losses. Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns. Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores. There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football. The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.
Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown. Bet the Saints Monday.
|11-06-22||Rams v. Bucs -125||13-16||Win||100||152 h 58 m||Show|
15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.
Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team. It will give them the break mentally they need. Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now. And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks. They also could get some players back in the secondary.
The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost. I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week. Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.
The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay. The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers. All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.
More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits. They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers. They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half. And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle. He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.
While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue. They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that. Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure. Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury. TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.
Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play. The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.
Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage. All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line. They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week. Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-06-22||Colts +6.5 v. Patriots||Top||3-26||Loss||-110||157 h 24 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5
This line is an overreaction from last week's results. Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets. So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.
I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now. Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3. We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.
Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start. He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future. Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards. But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.
I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary. Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing. He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.
I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines. Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself. Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving. He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action. The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver. Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.
After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week. But their problems aren't fixed with that one win. It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.
Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won. The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty. The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones. He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week. Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.
Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams. Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense. The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even. These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same. The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.
Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|11-06-22||Packers v. Lions +3.5||Top||9-15||Win||100||149 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four. But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers. It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.
It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week. Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week. Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state. This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.
The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss. They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it. Their problems aren't fixed. The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.
The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers. It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit. Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb. They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.
I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins. But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up. WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing. Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it. This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either. This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.
The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|11-06-22||Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45.5||Top||35-32||Win||100||50 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5
This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy. That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games. They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.
Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week. They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week. Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room. Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.
But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense. After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week. They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground. They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.
Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon. They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary. The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards. And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.
The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week. But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds. It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.
Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play. Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-03-22||Eagles -13.5 v. Texans||29-17||Loss||-116||50 h 39 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points. They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play. They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger. And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.
Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play. No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play. No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury. And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game. And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.
Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it. Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times. The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense. Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game. But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee. They also throw for 246 yards per game.
The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up. They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense. Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks. Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Eagles Thursday.
|10-31-22||Bengals -3 v. Browns||Top||13-32||Loss||-120||146 h 23 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3
Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals. I thought this line should have been higher than 3. I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.
The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league. They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns. Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores. And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.
The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps. That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards. They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.
The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game. Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games. Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.
That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett. I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.
The Browns also have injury concerns on defense. Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable. Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable. This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.
The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.
The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories. The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road. These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|10-30-22||Packers +11.5 v. Bills||Top||17-27||Win||100||99 h 51 m||Show|
20* Packers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +11.5
For starters, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been more than 8.5-point underdog in his career. That's 234 starts without being a double-digit dog. That fact alone shows you this is a 'buy low' spot on the Packers, and we'll do just. We'll back a Packers team that has lost three straight and failed to cover four in a row.
Rodgers is better when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he will be in that mindset this week. Everyone is counting the Packers out playing the Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. He will rally the troops and put forth the best effort of the season. The Packers have had a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they'll step it up this week.
I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills. They are coming off their bye week, but they were feeling fat and happy the last two weeks after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-20 two weeks back. That is the game they had circled all offseason, getting revenge on a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Packers as they were to beat the Chiefs.
We've seen the Bills let teams hang around this season. They lost 19-21 at Miami, needed a last-second FG to beat the Ravens 23-20 and beat the Chiefs 24-20. They are beatable, and at the very least the Packers can keep this game within single-digits with the proper game plan.
The strength of their team this year is their running game and Aaron Jones, and I expect the Packers to embrace is this week and feed the horse. The weakness of the Bills is the interior of their defense as they can be run on. So controlling the clock with the running game and short passes to Jones out of the backfield is a recipe for success here.
I know the Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but they should get WR Christian Watson back this week, and Sammy Watkins is healthy as well. Their best defender in LB Rashan Gary is upgraded to probable as well. They are hopeful to have both T Bakhtiari and G Jenkins in the lineup as both have missed time over the past couple seasons. The Bills will be without T Brown, CB White and S Hyde for this one.
The actual strength of the Packers this season is their defense, which allows 20.9 points per game while ranking 7th in total defense at 308.4 yards per game. They can get enough stops here to be able to hang around while the offense methodically moves the ball down the field and keeps Buffalo's offense off the field for the majority of this game.
Plays against home teams (Buffalo) - outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per game, after gaining 7 or more yards per pass attempt in two consecutive games are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Packers Sunday Night.
|10-30-22||Dolphins v. Lions +3.5||31-27||Loss||-108||92 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have lost four consecutive games including two straight blowout losses to the Patriots 29-0 and the Cowboys 24-6. But they were far from healthy in those last two games, and they are getting a lot of players back this week.
The Lions were going in to take a 13-10 lead against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter but fumbled at the 1-yard line. That completely changed the game. They were only outgained by 18 yards by the Cowboys, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate. They came through with their best defensive performance of the season in limiting a potent Dallas attack to just 330 total yards.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Lions this week. They will be getting RB DeAndre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury. TE TJ Hockenseon and WR Josh Reynolds are healthy, as are T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnew, who are all listed as probable. Swift rushed for 231 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per carry in the first three games this season. St. Brown has 28 receptions for 275 yards and three scores in basically just four games of action. Reynolds and Hockenson have also been huge for this team, combining for 47 receptions, 658 yards and five touchdowns.
The Dolphins have six of their top eight int he secondary on the injury report. They will be without S Brandon Jones, who leads the team with 49 tackles and also has two sacks. The Lions are going to be able to shred their defense this week. Tua did not look great in his return to the lineup last week, leading the Dolphins to just 16 points against the Steelers. He should have more success this week, but I liked what I saw from this Detroit defense last week. Either way, the Dolphins shouldn't be 3.5-point favorites on the road against anyone.
The Lions are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight October games. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. Detroit is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two consecutive losses by 14 points or more. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|10-30-22||Raiders v. Saints +1.5||0-24||Win||100||70 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Saints +1.5
The New Orleans Saints look like the best 2-5 or worse team in the NFL right now. That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders this week. The Saints have the numbers of a 5-2 team, not a 2-5 team.
New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 398.3 yards per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play. The Saints rank 14th in total defense at 340.4 yards per game and 18th at 5.6 yards per play allowed. So they are actually outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 2-5 on the season.
The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season. They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 6 takeaways, so they are -10 in turnovers. That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict.
Just last week the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals. They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards. Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen is sticking with him this week. They have extra prep time after playing the Cardinals last Thursday, which is a bonus too.
While the Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Cardinals, the Raiders are coming off a misleading 38-20 win over the Texans. They actually gave up 404 yards to a terrible Houston offense and were outgained in that game. But they got a 73-yard interception return for a TD late in the game that put it away, which was basically a 14-point swing.
The Raiders can't be trusted as road favorites here because they have a leaky defense. They rank 26th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game, 24th in total defense at 366.7 yards per game and 23rd in allowing 5.8 yards per play. They also had a flu bug go through their team this week that has been a big distraction and caused players to miss practice. That magnifies the rest and preparation advantage the Saints have had after playing last Thursday and getting 10 days to prepare for this game.
The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on the road this season. Plays against road favorites (Las Vegas) - in a game involving two teams that allow 335 to 370 yards per game defensively, after gaining 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Take the Saints Sunday.
|10-30-22||Patriots -130 v. Jets||Top||22-17||Win||100||93 h 58 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots ML -130
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the New England Patriots. They were just upset 33-14 on Monday Night Football as 8.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27.5 points. They were embarrassed, and now they'll come back highly motivated to beat a division opponent here in the New York Jets, especially since they currently reside in last place in the division.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jets, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite terrible QB play from Zach Wilson. A great defense and RB Breece Hall and WR Cory Davis have masked Wilson's QB play. Well, now Hall and Davis are out, so they are down their two biggest weapons on offense. They aren't going to be able to overcome it.
The Jets have benefited from playing a rookie or backup QB in three of their four wins during this streak. They beat Brett Rypien and the Broncos last week, Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins and a combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, who combined for four interceptions. When they faced a real team with a legit QB, they lost by 15 to the Ravens and lost by 15 to the Bengals.
The Jets also lost their best offensive linemen in Alijah Vera-Tucker to an injury last week, and he's out along with Davis and Hall. Hall has 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns and is irreplaceable. So is Davis, who has 19 receptions for 351 yards and two scores to lead the team. Wilson is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.
I like that the Patriots have announced they are going with Mac Jones moving forward. This should put some stability into the offense, and he should be another week healthy after returning last week against the Bears before getting replaced by Zappe. He is the more talented QB with the bigger upside, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week.
The Patriots own the Jets, going 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings with their last loss to them in 2015. And we just need them to win straight up here. Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 21-plus points in his previous game as the coach of the Patriots. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game. The Jets' luck runs out this week against a better, pissed off New England team. Bet the Patriots on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-30-22||Steelers +10.5 v. Eagles||Top||13-35||Loss||-110||92 h 32 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5
Not all bye weeks are created equal. The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week, and I think that's being factored too much into this line. Sometimes bye weeks are great for teams to regroup, but the Eagles didn't need to regroup. Also, the Eagles have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 3rd-toughest. So the numbers for both teams up to this point are misleading.
The Eagles are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0 this season. So if anything, the bye week puts a halt to their momentum. They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the Cowboys going into the bye week, so they are clearly feeling fat and happy right now and not as motivated as most teams would be going into a bye week. I think this bye week could actually be a bad thing for the Eagles.
Either way, I think the Steelers have the goods to be able to hang with the Eagles Sunday. After upsetting the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Steelers hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week in a 16-10 road loss. They had a chance to win that game late as their defense kept them in it. I think Kenny Pickett is going to keep getting better with each passing start, and he could be primed for his best performance of the season this week.
The Eagles aren't really blowing anyone out. They have just two of their six wins by double-digits. Their last three games were all decided by 9 points or fewer. After beating the Jaguars by 8 at home, they only beat the Cardinals by 3 on the road and were actually outgained in that game. Their 26-17 win over the Cowboys last time out was misleading as their offense was held to 268 total yards, but they benefitted from being +3 in turnovers.
A big reason the Eagles are 6-0 is due to turnover luck. They are +12 in turnovers through six games. I have a hard time trusting those teams that have had the turnover luck on their side. The Steelers have been getting healthier defensively in recent weeks and will have the proper game plan to slow down Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat ability. No team has had more success stopping Lamar Jackson in recent seasons than the Steelers, so they know how to defend running quarterbacks.
Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the month of October. The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|10-27-22||Ravens v. Bucs -1||27-22||Loss||-110||19 h 54 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1
This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers. If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently. Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.
The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. You'll never get them at a better price this season. The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK. Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve. The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play. A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.
This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks. The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games. They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game. Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.
And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight. The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play. Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.
Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home. Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite. Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002. He has never been two games under .500 in his career. I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done. Roll with the Bucs Thursday.
|10-24-22||Bears +9 v. Patriots||Top||33-14||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores. Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.
The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3. They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers. They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites. They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards. And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs. But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears. They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday. They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards. But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.
Chicago doesn't get blown out. The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season. I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers. The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.
The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively. Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game. Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread? I don't think so.
Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens. They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore. They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers. The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season. They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.
I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now. Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him. But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season. Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.
Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach. Bet the Bears Monday.
|10-23-22||Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50||Top||37-23||Win||100||42 h 9 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50
Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season. The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.
The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game. Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now. That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers. Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.
Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game. Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf. But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.
The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense. In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt. The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout. It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.
Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog. The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-23-22||Falcons +6.5 v. Bengals||17-35||Loss||-110||39 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5
The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out. They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game. They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter. The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week. They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.
The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals. They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless. They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win. They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in. They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week. They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens. And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|10-23-22||Bucs -11 v. Panthers||Top||3-21||Loss||-110||68 h 42 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11
The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way. I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week. Well that boost only lasted for a half. The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there. They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.
WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals. The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams. Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage. Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.
They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback. Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much. They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago. They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago. And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.
The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week. They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone. That's not going to happen again. The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.
In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009. The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.
I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead. The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|10-23-22||Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47||Top||17-35||Win||100||39 h 46 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47
The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out. They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game. They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter. The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week. They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.
The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game. The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air. The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.
It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout. Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-23-22||Lions v. Cowboys OVER 49||Top||6-24||Loss||-110||39 h 46 m||Show|
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49
The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week. They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup. Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.
The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game. The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play. Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.
The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score. They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down. They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier. Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive. He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.
Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB. Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.
I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week. The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-20-22||Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-42||Loss||-100||7 h 19 m||Show|
20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5
Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick. It hasn't come yet. I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning. I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3. I expect the Saints to win this game outright.
The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season. The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.
The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.
The two wins weren't impressive, either. They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken. They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4. So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.
The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension. But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.
Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray. I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week. This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.
The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards. They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game. Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.
The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks. They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one. Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.
I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses. This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards. The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.
Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here. The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less. The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry. The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.
Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Saints Thursday.
|10-17-22||Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers||Top||16-19||Win||100||73 h 32 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5
The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook. Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result. But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3. It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.
The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won. They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone. The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT. That was the second game they gave away this season. They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.
The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team. They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles. They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game. So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.
The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far. It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start. They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season. Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed. That's not the sign of an elite team. I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.
Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns. They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams. They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here. Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.
I love the spot for the Broncos, too. They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football. They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time. It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.
The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more. It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense. Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates. The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season. They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.
This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense. The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air. Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game. They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results. This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|10-16-22||Cowboys +6 v. Eagles||Top||17-26||Loss||-105||98 h 41 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6
Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2. He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. He crushed the Commanders 25-10. And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.
I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now. The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles. This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.
A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line. Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games. Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line. All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.
The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons. They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories. The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run. They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season. The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him. He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.
The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season. They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory. They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over. The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss. Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL. The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.
The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons. Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|10-16-22||Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-20||Win||100||94 h 46 m||Show|
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5
The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0. Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards. The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers. They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.
We saw the same thing happen last year. After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City. Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs. They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game. So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.
The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play. That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.
You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now. S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations. Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3. The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run. It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.
The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive. They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home. That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them. Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.
The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out. They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.
I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon. They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night. They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.
Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday. Take the Bills.
|10-16-22||Panthers +10.5 v. Rams||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5
I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week. They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009. They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.
Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury. That's addition by subtraction. This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win. In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented. QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.
This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers. I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS. I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals. So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them. I have a great read on this team. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.
It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy. Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines. Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.
Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday. Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line. They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays. They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.
The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year. Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team. They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers. Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game. The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.
Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|10-13-22||Washington Commanders v. Bears +107||Top||12-7||Loss||-100||19 h 33 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107
The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going. They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats. They also beat Houston. Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.
The Commanders are falling off the rails. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion. They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee. They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.
The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football. And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen. The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game. Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.
There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night. That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm. That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.
The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season. Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant. The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.
|10-10-22||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51||Top||29-30||Win||100||179 h 15 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51
This one is as simply as it gets. When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively. This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.
The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31. Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat. They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1. It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit. He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.
The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders. It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.
The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games. They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point. They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.
The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time. The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game. Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs. The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|10-09-22||Cowboys +6 v. Rams||Top||22-10||Win||100||152 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6
Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2. He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.
Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks. You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks? The 49ers. Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week. Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.
The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys will do the same. The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason. Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton. G Edwards is questionable for this one. Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything. Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson. WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.
There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well. They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona. But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season. They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco. They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog. They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB. This line should be much closer to PK than -6.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage. There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|10-09-22||Eagles -5 v. Cardinals||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||152 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5
The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate. They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point. They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.
The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play. They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play. They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.
Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters. They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory. They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.
In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive. They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3. It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week. Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack. And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.
This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either. The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is. To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.
Arizona has zero home-field advantage. In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games. Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards. Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona. Take the Eagles Sunday.
|10-09-22||Falcons +8.5 v. Bucs||15-21||Win||100||148 h 1 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5
The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season. They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season. They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.
As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score. I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs. The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs. They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.
The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings. This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play. They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.
After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week. They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City. Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football. That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.
The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries. These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|10-09-22||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 46||15-21||Loss||-110||58 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46
The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team. They have an elite offense and a suspect defense. The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs. They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play. They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.
I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively. But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense. They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week. They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.
The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week. They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City. Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football. That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total. They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings. The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-09-22||Chargers v. Browns +3||Top||30-28||Win||100||97 h 58 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3
If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.
Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0. They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win. They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win. They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them. And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles. So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.
Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game. Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks. The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season. And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.
The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans. But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter. They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover. Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.
When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost. They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD. They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now. They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home. They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.
While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns. They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry. That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans. Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game. That's a good sign he will be able to play this week. And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week. If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost. The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|10-06-22||Colts v. Broncos -3||12-9||Loss||-115||33 h 36 m||Show|
15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3
The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season. They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4. They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter. The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL. They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2. The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards. And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.
Now it gets worse for the Colts. They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans. It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%. They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game. I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.
The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players. I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown. They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss. They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now. They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did. Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.
I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward. They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play. Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.
Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Broncos Thursday.
|10-03-22||Rams v. 49ers||Top||9-24||Win||100||91 h 37 m||Show|
20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK
The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0. Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams. We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.
The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost. They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7. And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.
The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play. They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game. I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.
Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance. But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm. I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.
The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl. They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now. The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won. Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.
The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites. And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12. Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game. Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker. The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.
The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year. So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week. Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games. The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins. San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. Roll with the 49ers Monday.
|10-02-22||Cardinals v. Panthers -120||Top||26-16||Loss||-120||111 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120
The Arizona Cardinals are broken. They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3. They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs. The Raiders are 0-3 on the season. They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win. And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.
Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals. DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense. He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense. The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.
Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0. They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1. They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play. And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.
The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season. They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense. This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.
The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits! That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season. The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|10-02-22||Chargers v. Texans +5.5||34-24||Loss||-110||59 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5
The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently. No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.
I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week. And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week. They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week. They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week. They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week. As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.
The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle. All three of their games have been decided by one score this season. If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.
I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense. The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs. They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week. Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.
Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents. Take the Texans Sunday.
|10-02-22||Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3||Top||10-25||Win||100||112 h 24 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3
Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat the Bengals in Week 2. And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.
Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks. That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders. Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.
The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game. They couldn't do anything until garbage time. Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion. He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented. And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
This Washington defense isn't any good, either. The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense. There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.
This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way. The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important. Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.
The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes. Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|10-02-22||Jaguars +7 v. Eagles||Top||21-29||Loss||-130||108 h 0 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it. Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.
That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars. Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson. They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games. They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.
Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks. Pederson is a big reason why. Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit. Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games. James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line. Pederson is working his magic with this offense.
Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season. They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense. They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season. I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.
Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|10-02-22||Vikings -140 v. Saints||28-25||Win||100||104 h 30 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140
The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South. Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going. I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.
QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game. Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries. All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.
The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy. Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before. The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before. The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable. They are remarkably healthy.
The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC. They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener. I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone. And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC. They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.
I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad. Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football. New Orleans is a mash unit right now. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|09-29-22||Dolphins v. Bengals -180||Top||15-27||Win||100||66 h 14 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180
I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game. I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher. So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.
The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins. They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see. They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won. They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo. Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes. That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.
It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals. There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest. Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.
The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either. QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense. DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable. This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.
So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead. In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards. They lost due to committing five turnovers. They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.
Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets. Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start. And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills. The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.
While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year. This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL. They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year. They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.
The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week. The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team. Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.
|09-26-22||Cowboys +1 v. Giants||23-16||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1
The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0. They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1. The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.
Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play. They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season. I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game. They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful. They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful. The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.
The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss. They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play. It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.
Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks. They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.
The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week. They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well. Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.
The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six. The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas. Roll with the Cowboys Monday.
|09-25-22||Packers +2 v. Bucs||14-12||Win||100||119 h 8 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2
This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay. The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries. And it has gotten worse this week. QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue. He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.
The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable. They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems. They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells. They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.
It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian. The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season. They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half. The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.
Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago. They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy. They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember. That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury. They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.
The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did. And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory. They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.
The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs. You know they have had this game circled all offseason. The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|09-25-22||Jaguars +7 v. Chargers||Top||38-10||Win||100||119 h 12 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7
I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week. I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play. Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon. I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.
Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.
The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play. They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home. They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.
This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already. Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2. He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt. Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.
I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries. They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most. They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.
Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Jaguars Sunday.
|09-25-22||Ravens v. Patriots +3||37-26||Loss||-120||88 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3
The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season. They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate. The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.
The opener for the Patriots was also misleading. It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate. The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play. That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.
The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary. Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did. The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.
It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score. The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards. So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise. The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.
After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore. The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer. This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time. They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|09-25-22||Chiefs v. Colts +7||Top||17-20||Win||100||116 h 44 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)
This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts. This line would have been close to a PK to open the season. So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football. And even those two weeks are misleading.
The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers. They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game. They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.
The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats. Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week. Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset. That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.
Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week. They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled. But both are back this week for Matt Ryan. It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable. Almost all the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.
The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town. And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere. After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive. Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.
Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run. He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season. That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run. The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.
The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|09-25-22||Saints v. Panthers +3||Top||14-22||Win||100||116 h 44 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3
It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games. They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1. They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.
It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints. That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards. They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.
The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now. Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return. They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back. That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away. It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.
Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010. There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall. Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career. Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.
Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|09-22-22||Steelers v. Browns -4||17-29||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4
The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2. But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be. I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point. And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.
The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game. They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards. Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened. The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.
You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth. They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.
The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener. They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals. That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good. The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.
Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year. He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL. The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.
That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots. The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.
This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night. The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up. The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.
If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky. Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts. He is averaging 6.2 per attempt. Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt. He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.
Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game. The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week. We'll take advantage. Roll with the Browns Thursday.
|09-19-22||Vikings v. Eagles -130||Top||7-24||Win||100||117 h 5 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130
The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season. I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers. But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.
That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers. Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard. They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.
The Eagles will not be easy to defend. They are loaded on offense this season. They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans. They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.
Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1. Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas. Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score. The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.
The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2. The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett. I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters. The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.
Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night. When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL. Cousins has always struggled in primetime. He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football. The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games. The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least. I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|09-18-22||Bears v. Packers -10||Top||10-27||Win||100||93 h 56 m||Show|
20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10
This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog. The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener. That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.
The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week. They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon. The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards. They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play. They really had no business winning that game.
Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team. This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday. The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason. Those were arguably their two best players. Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.
Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week. These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota. Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.
This is a perfect spot to back the Packers. Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates. Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.
The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits. Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|09-18-22||Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5||Top||29-23||Loss||-105||89 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5
I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified. I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers. The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.
Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team. There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022. They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.
The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here. He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.
Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards. And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest. The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.
The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension. They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well. TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively. They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency. They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year. While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.
The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener. Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem. Take the Raiders Sunday.
|09-18-22||Falcons +10.5 v. Rams||27-31||Win||100||89 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5
I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat. There tends to be a hangover effect, too. Same can be said for Super Bowl losers. I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.
Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it. The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth. The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense. Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.
Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener. He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss. They offensive line got annihilated. Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp. And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.
The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much. Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26. I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense. They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.
I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl. They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season. The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|09-18-22||Patriots -130 v. Steelers||17-14||Win||100||86 h 36 m||Show|
15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.
The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown. The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play. Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.
The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week. They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game. But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers. Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.
Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards. This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league. The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec. His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.
Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career. Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England. Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots. Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot. New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|09-18-22||Bucs v. Saints +3||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||86 h 46 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.
Brady missed a lot of training camp. There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs. C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible. T Tristan Wirfs is questionable. They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury. Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.
The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week. Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone. Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.
The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady. The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out. The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams. Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure. There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.
The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points. The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs. New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|09-15-22||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||48 h 57 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season. They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards. And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.
The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7. This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.
The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover. They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites. I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.
Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game. It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable. They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.
Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play. Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet the Chiefs Thursday.
|09-12-22||Broncos v. Seahawks +7||Top||16-17||Win||100||60 h 25 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7
This line is inflated. Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson. Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson. That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks. This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks. That's just not the case.
We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career. Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was. Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.
I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself. He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team. The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.
If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff. I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense. Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs. Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle. Bet the Seahawks Monday.
|09-11-22||Packers v. Vikings +2||7-23||Win||100||126 h 10 m||Show|
15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2
The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season. Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons. He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.
Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball. And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.
The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020. He played just one game last year with a back injury. He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL. Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.
Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL. The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area. They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety. He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL. They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner. He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.
I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season. Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014. All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them. He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone. Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.
The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good. The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers. Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year. Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014. The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|09-11-22||Steelers +7 v. Bengals||23-20||Win||100||123 h 39 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7
The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year. I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect. Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.
I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU. But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection. He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.
There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky. Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years. Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field. He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.
Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago. They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens. Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.
The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason. But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them. T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.
I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB. Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014. The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals. Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog. Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)
|09-11-22||Browns v. Panthers -1.5||Top||26-24||Loss||-110||315 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5
The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year. Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him. They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton. Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.
The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time. They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded. The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round. RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.
Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games. The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety. Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons. Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.
Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season. They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season. That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them. Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league. He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.
You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him. He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team. I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.
The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons. The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|09-11-22||49ers v. Bears UNDER 42||Top||10-19||Win||100||217 h 56 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42
The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. They also have two of the best defenses in the league. That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.
Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season. Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road. The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season. They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.
Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter. He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson. The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability. Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.
Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less. The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall. The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-11-22||Colts v. Texans +8||Top||20-20||Win||100||133 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8
The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season. But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason. Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.
Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors. Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.
Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names. Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year. Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team. Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.
There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year. They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18. Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan. Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays. He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.
The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone. The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season. They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue. He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.
The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games. Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014. Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes. Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|09-08-22||Bills -2.5 v. Rams||Top||31-10||Win||100||323 h 15 m||Show|
20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5
The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion. They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year. They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.
Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense. Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks. The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans. They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs. They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.
The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring. The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.
I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat. There tends to be a hangover effect, too. Same can be said for Super Bowl losers. And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth. The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.
Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp. Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener. Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.
I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason. Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents. The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games. Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|02-13-22||Rams v. Bengals +4.5||Top||23-20||Win||100||201 h 42 m||Show|
20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5
Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!
The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season. They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.
After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs. Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.
Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs. They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl. Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here. He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.
But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played. The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game. Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have. For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week.
The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs. This will be their toughest test of the postseason. The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well. And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.
Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season. Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game. There's value with Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.
My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)
1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120
2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130
3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140
4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125
5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115
6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145
7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105
8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135
9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110
10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115
11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120
12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145
13. 1st play of game: Pass +110
14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105
15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115
|01-30-22||49ers +3.5 v. Rams||Top||17-20||Win||100||138 h 27 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3.5
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season. They were a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys and Packers, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Rams as well. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.
They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way. They went on the road again and trailing 10-3 late in the 4th quarter, got a blocked punt return TD to tie the game, eventually beating the Packers on a game-winning field goal at the gun. Holding the Cowboys to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points is no small feat and shows how good this defense is playing right now.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP). They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.
The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games. And with an elite defense and running game, we've seen before that teams can make deep runs in the playoffs. The 49ers feel like they are playing with house money with the way they have beaten the Rams, Cowboys and Packers in three straight tight, one-score games. They feel like they can win in any situation now, and getting 3.5 points with them here is a great value.
The 49ers simply own the Rams. They have gone 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five outright wins as underdogs. Their defense is a nightmare matchup for the Rams as they have held them to 311 or fewer yards in five of those six meetings, including 265 and 278 in their two meetings this season. They can get pressure by rushing only four, and Matthew Stafford has been great against the blitz, which is why he dissected both the Cardinals and Rams, two blitz-heavy teams. He won't have that luxury against the 49ers, who can get pressure with four with their dominant defensive line.
The 49ers have proven they can run on the Rams as they have rushed for at least 107 yards in nine of their last 10 meetings. That allows them to control the ball and keep the Rams off the field. Jimmy G is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing the ball over the middle, and the Rams are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending passes over the middle. That's another reason this is a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.
The Rams will have zero home-field advantage in this game, which is why this line shouldn't be 3.5. It should be closer to PK. You could hear the 49ers fans over the Rams fans in that Week 18 game, and this is a short trip for 49ers fans again to Los Angeles. They will make the trip, and this will be more of a 50-50 crowd than this line indicates. I also love the fact that the 49ers have an extra day to get healthy and prepare for the Rams after playing on Saturday, while the Rams played on Sunday. San Francisco needs this extra time playing in its 4th consecutive road game, and the short travel doesn't really make this a road game.
Don't buy into the hype that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season. Teams that are 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent have gone 14-7 SU in the playoffs when facing them for a 3rd time. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The 49ers are 8-3 SU in road games this season and have played their best football on the highway. Their run continues as they just seem to be a team of destiny this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-30-22||Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54||Top||27-24||Loss||-111||100 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54
The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd. The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points. It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54. The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds. That will help us cash this OVER as well.
Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio. I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing.
He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players. This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play. Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting.
The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball. They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati. The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games. The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season. Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-23-22||Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54||Top||36-42||Win||100||92 h 2 m||Show|
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54
Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season. Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers.
Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games. The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense. Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense.
The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch. Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets. In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs. Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense. After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career.
The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL. The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points. The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again. The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well. The books have set this number too low at 54 here.
The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City. Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-22-22||49ers +6 v. Packers||13-10||Win||100||70 h 47 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Packers FOX Saturday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +6
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Green Bay Packers just as they were against the Dallas Cowboys. They are also 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win. They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP). They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.
The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of their last six games. That rushing attack consistently gives the Packers fits in the playoffs, which is a big reason Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 all-time against the 49ers in the postseason. And the Packers rank 30th in defensive success rate against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for them. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in allowing 4.7 yards per carry.
The 49ers can take the same game plan they had against the Cowboys, which is control the game with their running game and play keep away from a potent Dallas defense. And holding the Cowboys to just 17 points is no small feat as Dallas was the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season. This defense can hold Aaron Rodgers and company in check as well, while the offense can control the ball with their running game and timely passes from Jimmy G.
Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are a big reason this line is as high as it is. But Jimmy G just said Wednesday he is good to go, the 49ers certainly expect to have Bosa available, and Warner was seen jumping around on the sidelines late in that Dallas game so he will probably be a go as well. I think as the injury report looks better for the 49ers late in the week, this line will drop as +6 is not the right line.
These teams are pretty evenly matched and the Packers should be closer to a 3-point favorite given the bye week and the home-field advantage. Consider the 49ers were 3-point home favorites in their first meeting this season, so this is a 9-point adjustment and clearly shows there's value on the road dog.
The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight January games. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. Everyone is making too big a deal of the Packers playing at home at Lambeau Field in the cold. But the 49ers are actually built for cold outdoor games with the better running game and defense than the Packers. They have been a much better bet on the road than they have been at home in recent years, and they just went on the road and beat the Rams and Cowboys both. They are getting disrespected again here and will continue playing with that chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous road warriors. Roll with the 49ers Saturday.
|01-22-22||Bengals v. Titans OVER 47||Top||19-16||Loss||-107||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47
It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds. These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths.
Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game. They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch.
The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy. Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season. But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return. And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week. They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable. The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones.
Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games. The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-17-22||Cardinals v. Rams -4||11-34||Win||100||98 h 1 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4
The Los Angeles Rams simply own the Arizona Cardinals, and Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury. The Rams are 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals with all nine wins coming by 7 points or more. The one loss came this season when the Rams were coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs the previous week and were in a letdown spot early in the season.
That was back when Arizona was playing well. The Cardinals have fallen flat on their faces since, and it has been yet another late-season collapse under Kingsbury. He has been knowing for this dating back to his time at Texas Tech, and as you can tell he is one of my least favorite head coaches in the NFL.
The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five gams overall. That includs an upset loss to Seattle as a 5.5-point home favorite, an upset loss to a short-handed Colts team as a 3-point favorite, an upset loss at Detroit by 18 as 13-point favorites and an upset home loss to the Rams by 7 as 3-point favorites. The Rams made the proper adjustments in that 2nd meeting in a 30-23 win, and I trust McVay to have the right game plan to beat Arizona again.
It's not all Kingsbury's fault, though. Injuries have played a big factor as they have been without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt. The defense has really taken a hit without Watt, and the offense is not close to how explosive it was when Hopkins was healthy. Both James Conner and Chase Edmunds are banged up going into the playoffs, as is WR Rondale Moore with two of those three questionable.
The Rams have finished the season strong by going 5-1 SU in their final six games. They won four of those five games by 7 points or more. The lone loss came in OT to the 49ers in Week 18, which was predictable as there was a lot more at stake for the 49ers than there was for the Rams, and the 49ers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. A big reason the Rams are playing so well down the stretch is because they are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs, unlike Arizona.
Yards per play is one of the most important stats in predicting NFL games. The Rams are elite in this aspect, ranking 4th at 6.0 yards per play on offense and 10th at 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense. They are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the league. The Cardinals are 18th at 5.4 yards per play allowed on defense and 15th at 5.6 yards per play on offense, only outgaining teams by 0.2 yards per play.
The Rams don't always have the biggest home-field advantage in the regular season, but it will be a much bigger advantage in these playoffs. Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season as the coach of Arizona. Arizona is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC opponents. Roll with the Rams Monday.
|01-16-22||Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5||21-42||Win||100||74 h 2 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed. They have played essentially six straight playoffs games. They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.
Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three. The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB. The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory. Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good. That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.
Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs. And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards. Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.
We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9. Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders. And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers. Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score. In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.
This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead. Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score. The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.
This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run. The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday. Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch. The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.
Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City. We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|01-16-22||49ers +3 v. Cowboys||Top||23-17||Win||103||70 h 17 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys. They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win. It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).
While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated. It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.
The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards. That's a fellow NFC West team. The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games. They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.
The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game. He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus. Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus. That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys. The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game. Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.
Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw. These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game. Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games. Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.
The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game. Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-15-22||Patriots v. Bills -4||Top||17-47||Win||100||50 h 2 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL. Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams. Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense. Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.
The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense. They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season. Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.
The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times. The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since. After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.
That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards. Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball. Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo. Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically. The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012. Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.
The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars. Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games. The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm. They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.
The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons. Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game. That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries. The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.
Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games. The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-15-22||Raiders v. Bengals -5||Top||19-26||Win||100||46 h 18 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Bengals NFL Wild Card Opener on Cincinnati -5
The Cincinnati Bengals are rested and ready to pick up where they left off when they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games prior to Week 18 to seal the AFC North title. They beat the Broncos 15-10 as 3-point road underdogs, the Ravens 41-21 as 7.5-point home favorites and the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home dogs to clinch the title.
The Bengals decided to rest their starters in a 16-21 loss at Cleveland in Week 18. That was a wise move by Zac Taylor, who is among the favorites to win Coach of the Year. Of course, franchise QB Joe Burrow was banged up against the Chiefs and Joe Mixon was out with COVID, so it was an easy decision. But now the Bengals come back fresh and primed for a big effort at home against the Raiders on Saturday.
Conversely, this couldn't be a worse spot for the Raiders. They had to win four straight games to close the season which were all basically playoff games. All four wins came by 4 points or less as they were simply good at winning coin flips. But they needed OT to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and now the NFL has done them no favors by making them play the first wild card game Saturday afternoon. They are gassed and have nothing left in the tank for the Bengals here.
The Raiders were in a similarly tough situation when they hosted the Bengals earlier this season. They were coming off a Sunday night game against the Chiefs and they had a Thursday game on deck against the Cowboys. Predictably, they fell flat and were crushed 32-13 by the Bengals in Las Vegas. I think they get crushed again here in what is actually an even worse spot for them.
The Raiders have the worst run defense of all the playoff teams according to pro football focus. Joe Mixon rushed for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders in that first meeting. And you know Joe Burrow is going to have another great game as he has been on fire down the stretch and has that big game experience by leading LSU to a national title. This playoff atmosphere won't phase him.
Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Ravens in Week 16 and followed it up with 446 yards and four scores without a pick against the Chiefs in Week 17. He now has an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while completing at least 68% of his passes in all four games. He is probably the single-most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now.
Las Vegas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog over a division opponent. The Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bengals Saturday.
|01-09-22||Saints -4 v. Falcons||Top||30-20||Win||100||149 h 14 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4
The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in. The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams. But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.
This is a terrible spot for the Falcons. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week. There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission. Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.
And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it. They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season. The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago. They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.
The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players. In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.
The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company. The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense. The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense. The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.
New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta. Bet the Saints Sunday.