|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-02-17||Idaho +18 v. Troy||21-24||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho +
I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season.
Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset.
Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho!
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||Top||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -
I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest.
Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win.
Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy!
|11-02-17||Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5||Top||14-56||Win||100||69 h 46 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg.
Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29.
Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||31 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan.
The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3.
I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan!
|10-31-17||Bowling Green v. Kent State +3||44-16||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season.
The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home.
Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State!
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||Top||26-29||Win||100||117 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee +
The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky
The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats.
Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games.
There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State -1 v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||69 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State -
I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama.
Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg.
Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State!
|10-28-17||Minnesota v. Iowa -7||10-17||Push||0||116 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -
I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss.
I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue.
The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat.
You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa!
|10-28-17||Utah -3 v. Oregon||20-41||Loss||-115||95 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Utah -
I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season.
Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one.
The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance.
We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah!
|10-28-17||TCU v. Iowa State +7||7-14||Win||100||66 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Iowa State +
I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head.
The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home.
Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State!
|10-28-17||Penn State v. Ohio State -6||38-39||Loss||-110||42 h 57 m||Show|
4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -
The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here.
I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye.
The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State!
|10-28-17||Air Force +12 v. Colorado State||Top||45-28||Win||100||113 h 50 m||Show|
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +
I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before.
I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29.
Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9 ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force!
|10-28-17||California +4 v. Colorado||28-44||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45.
I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State.
The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California!
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||110 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia +
I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much.
Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that.
As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run.
Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia!
|10-28-17||Rutgers v. Michigan -23.5||14-35||Loss||-110||100 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them.
Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game.
Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan!
|10-28-17||Buffalo University +5.5 v. Akron||20-21||Win||100||38 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER on Buffalo +
I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright.
The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program.
Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover.
Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo!
|10-27-17||Florida State -4 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-110||23 h 32 m||Show|
3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State -
As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals.
I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one.
BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State!
|10-21-17||Wyoming +14 v. Boise State||14-24||Win||100||131 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much.
There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them here.
Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming!
|10-21-17||Arizona v. California||45-44||Win||100||128 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -
Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one.
The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close.
While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona!
|10-21-17||Michigan +10 v. Penn State||13-42||Loss||-100||128 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +
This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder.
I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check.
I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan!
|10-21-17||LSU v. Ole Miss +7||Top||40-24||Loss||-105||141 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +
I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year.
The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game.
This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss!
|10-21-17||South Florida v. Tulane +11.5||34-28||Win||105||128 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Tulane +
It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4.
Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane!
|10-21-17||Southern Miss +3 v. Louisiana Tech||34-27||Win||100||91 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss +
Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons.
I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs.
Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall.
We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss!
|10-21-17||Illinois v. Minnesota -13||17-24||Loss||-110||119 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -
Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.
Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota!
|10-21-17||Indiana v. Michigan State -7||9-17||Win||100||124 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -
I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.
I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.
Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State!
|10-21-17||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5||7-59||Win||100||32 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -
This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite.
UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye.
Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech.
|10-20-17||Colorado State v. New Mexico +7||27-24||Win||105||107 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7.
New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should.
I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less.
New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico!
|10-20-17||Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3||38-10||Loss||-110||38 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State +
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor.
The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense.
The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee!
|10-19-17||Memphis +3 v. Houston||42-38||Win||100||84 h 15 m||Show|
3* Memphis/Houston Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER on Memphis +
I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Cougars. I really think Memphis is the much better team and should be favored in this contest.
I had hight hopes for this Houston team coming into the season, even after losing Herman. A big reason for that was they added in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen, who was the number recruit in his class at QB out of high school. Allen was a complete bust and quickly lost his job. Backup Kyle Postma hasn't been a whole lot better, as he's thrown 5 picks.
Clearly there's something wrong with the offense if they are only scoring 17 points against Tulsa, who they lost to 17-45. The same Tulsa team that had started 1-5 and just lost 28-62 to Navy. Overall the Cougars are averaging just 25.5 ppg, which more than 10 points less than last year's average of 35.8.
Memphis' offense ranks 14th in the country behind one the nation's most potent passing attacks that's headlined by quarterback Riley Ferguson (1,814 yards, 19-5 TD-INT ratio) and wide out Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards, 9 TDs). The Tigers defense is also much better than the numbers, as their opponents in 2017 are averaging 472 ypg. They have simply faced some dynamic offenses. I'll take the team that's going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Take Memphis!
|10-14-17||Texas A&M v. Florida -3||Top||19-17||Loss||-100||33 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -
I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain.
While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite.
On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida!
|10-14-17||Tulane -13 v. Florida International||10-23||Loss||-110||108 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulane
I like the value here with Tulane laying less than two touchdowns on the road against FIU. The Green Wave are off to a strong 3-2 start to the season with the only losses coming at Oklahoma and by just 2-points on the road to Navy. Tulane is 4-1 ATS with the only non-cover against the Sooners where they were simply outmatched.
While the Green Wave have been a very profitable bet so far, I still think this team is flying under the radar after going just 4-8 last year. The thing is, this is one of the most improved teams in the country in year two under head coach Willie Fritz and I fully expect them to continue to be a strong bet the remainder of this season.
FIU is not a good football team and like Tulane last year, are in the midst of a major rebuilding phase in the first year under head coach Butch Davis, who like Fritz has done, will get this program turned around. Just not this year.
The Golden Panthers come with an identical 3-2 record to the Green Wave, but the three wins have all come against bad teams and they struggled to win all 3. FIU held on for a 17-10 win at home over FCS foe Alcorn State, edged out a horrible Rice team 13-7 and barely squeaked by Charlotte 30-29. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS and will struggle to keep this close.
FIU's defense is no match for Tulane's elite rushing attack. The Green Wave come in 8th in the country averaging 293 ypg. FIU is giving up 170 ypg and nearly 4.5 yards/carry. The Panthers defense will be on the field a ton and simply don't have the offense to keep pace. Take Tulane!
|10-14-17||Auburn v. LSU +7||Top||23-27||Win||100||105 h 0 m||Show|
5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU
I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent.
Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country.
I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game.
LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU!
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +14||3-37||Win||100||88 h 41 m||Show|
3* Wash St/Cal Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal
I like the value here with Cal as a two touchdown home dog against the Cougars. Washington State comes into this one off two huge wins. First they knocked off USC at home on a Friday night prime time game and they followed it up by going on the road at night and beating Oregon.
I think it will be tough for them to bring that same intensity on the road a second straight week against a Cal team that has lost 3 straight and fresh off an ugly 38-7 loss at Washington, where they were outgained by 284 yards.
I wasn't surprised to see the Bears struggle in that game against a very good Washington team, as they had nothing left in the tank after playing Ole Miss, USC and Oregon the previous 3 games. They won't have any problem here getting up for a home night game against a Top 10 opponent. Cal only lost to USC at home by 10 earlier this season and while I don't see them winning this one, I think they will be able to keep it close the whole way.
Washington State comes in having covered 4 straight, but are just 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games when they come in having covered 4 out of their last 5. Cougars head coach Mike Leach is also just 4-13 ATS in his coaching career when his team is playing on the road and riding a 3 game or more winning streak. Take Cal!
|10-11-17||South Alabama +17 v. Troy||19-8||Win||100||37 h 9 m||Show|
4* S Alabama/Troy Sun Belt VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama +
I like the value here with the Jaguars in this in-state rivalry matchup against Troy. This line has been inflated big time on the Trojans, as they come in off arguably their biggest win in program history in a 24-21 outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog. That puts Troy into a big time letdown spot here and that should be more than enough for South Alabama to keep this within the number.
Keep in mind that Troy had started out 0-4 ATS before they covered against LSU, as they came into this season getting a ton of respect from the books after last year's 10-win season. The books know the public will jump right back on them after a big win, so we are getting the best price here on South Alabama.
The numbers on both sides of the ball don't look great for the Jaguars, but they have played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech.
South Alabama head coach Joey Jones has a history of getting his team to deliver against the spread in this spot, as the Jaguars are 13-4 ATS in road game in the first half of the season since he took over at South Alabama.
Troy on the other hand hasn't performed well against bad teams, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take South Alabama!
|10-07-17||Arizona +7 v. Colorado||Top||45-42||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona +
I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright.
The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one.
The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year.
I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball.
The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona!
|10-07-17||SMU v. Houston -6.5||22-35||Win||100||50 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Houston -
I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars laying less than a touchdown against the Mustangs. Keep in mind Houston was a 23-point road favorite over SMU a year ago. The Mustangs won that game and I can assure you the 15 returning starters and other lettermen for Houston haven't forgot about the feeling of losing that game.
The Cougars aren't going to let the Mustangs upset them two years in a row and I actually think they win this game going away. A big reason this spread isn't double-digits, is because you have SMU coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The public loves to jump on these teams who cover every game early and that's when the books really turn the odds against those teams.
Another thing with SMU, who is 4-1 SU, is they have played a very easy schedule. Their 4 wins are against the likes of SF Austin, North Texas, Arkansas St and UConn. The loss where they covered was a 20-point defeat against TCU, where they were catching 22.
Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar, even after a 3-1 start, as most people just wrote off this team after they lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas. The Cougars offense should have a field day here against a really bad SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 128th in the country against the pass, giving up 325 ypg, so expect a number of big plays and quick scores for the Cougars. Take Houston!
|10-07-17||Georgia State v. Costal Carolina +2||27-21||Loss||-110||79 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Coastal Carolina +
I'm taking the Chanticleers as a short home dog Saturday against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina is in the first year as a member of the Sun Belt and are more the capable of competing against the bottom tier of that conference. That's were Georgia State lies, as the Panthers lost at home to Tennessee State earlier this season.
This is also a great matchup for the Chanticleers, who featured a run first offense, which comes in ranked 38th at 207.5 ypg. Georgia State is 80th against the run allowing 166.0 ypg and are giving up 5 yards/carry.
This is also an offense that Coastal Carolina's defense can contain. The Panthers are 113th in rushing at 106 ypg and a mere 78th in passing. They rank 115 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and 116th in scoring at just 19 ppg. Take Coastal Carolina!
|10-07-17||Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion +4.5||58-28||Loss||-110||95 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Old Dominion +
The books have the wrong team favored here. This line is a result of Old Dominion coming in off a couple of ugly losses to UNC and Virginia Tech, while FAU enters off a 38-20 blowout win at home over Middle Tennessee. This Owls team is one the public has been on early, as they look to back Lane Kiffin and his strong coaching staff.
The thing is, the Monarchs won convincingly last year 42-24 and had more than 600 yards of total offense. They were also a 8.5-point favorite on the road for that contest, which is further evidence they shouldn't be a dog at home.
The Monarchs have also been a covering machine against teams like FAU that own a losing record. Old Dominion is a perfect 6-0 the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a losing record and have won these matchups by an average of 20 ppg. Take Old Dominion!
|10-07-17||UL-Lafayette +7.5 v. Idaho||21-16||Win||100||94 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Lafayette +
I like the value here with the Ragin' Cajuns catching over a touchdown here against the Vandals. Lafayette isn't going to overlook Idaho. In fact, they will be out for revenge from last year's double-digit loss at home.
Last time out the Ragin' Cajuns lost at home to ULM as a 4-point favorite and that puts them in a very profitable spot. Louisiana is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a home favorite. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games under head coach Hudspeth after playing the previous game against a conference opponent.
I look for Lafayette offensive attack to the be the difference in this one. The Ragin' Cajuns come in ranking in the top 60 in the country in both rushing and passing and are 40th overall. Idaho ranks outside the Top 65 in both rushing and passing and 82nd overall.
I actually think we could see the Ragin' Cajuns win the game outright, which is why I think there's such great value with this spread. Take UL-Lafayette!
|10-07-17||Western Michigan -6.5 v. Buffalo||71-68||Loss||-115||100 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Small Conference 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Western Michigan -
We are getting some big time value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against the Bulls. I believe it's a direct result of Buffalo coming into this one with a perfect 5-0 record against the spread. While Western Michigan has won 3 straight, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, failing to cover against bad teams like Idaho and Wagner.
The thing is, the Broncos are coming off an excellent showing in their conference opener, as they destroyed Ball State 55-3. I know this program lost a great coach in P.J. Fleck, as well as great talent from last year's team, but there's still a ton of really good players on this roster and I fully expect them to defend their MAC title this season.
Plenty of reason to believe the Broncos will be able to move the ball against the Bulls defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 36th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 209.0 ypg, which is pretty impressive given two of their games were against USC and Michigan State. Buffalo has the 109th ranked run defense, allowing teams 208.8 ypg and that's with their toughest opponent to date being Minnesota.
Note the Bulls also have the 88th ranked offense in the country against that soft schedule, while the Broncos have the 41st ranked defense. Western Michigan won 38-0 last year and while I don't foresee another shutout on the road, I think they have no problem here winning by double-digits. Take Western Michigan!
|10-07-17||LSU +3 v. Florida||Top||17-16||Win||100||15 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Afternoon ATS 'VEGAS INSIDER' on LSU +
I really like this spot for the Tigers, who are coming off that embarrassing loss at home to Troy last week. The perception couldn't be any worse on LSU, yet they are only a short dog on the road against a Florida team that is sitting at 3-1 with a 3-0 record in the SEC. That tells me the books also like the Tigers here, as the public will lineup to take the Gators at this price.
There's no excuse for losing to a Sun Belt team, but LSU was without one of their best players in RB Derrius Guice, who is expected to be back on the field for this game. I think he has a big game here against an overrated Florida defense, which comes in ranked 60th against the run and 82nd against the pass.
I also think the Gators are overvalued right now, as they could very easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1, winning on last second plays against both Tennessee and Kentucky. You also have to factor in the injury/suspension situation for Florida. That makes it tough to compete with a team like LSU, who I still think is one of the better teams in the country.
Florida is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a game in which they covered the spread. LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 27-13 in their last 40 road games after a loss. Take LSU!
|10-07-17||Penn State -14 v. Northwestern||31-7||Win||100||89 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Penn State -
I know this seems like a big number for the Nittany Lions to be laying against what many expected to be a strong Northwestern team, but the fact of the matter is, Penn State is even better than anticipated and the Wildcats are a lot worse.
Northwestern's only two wins this season are against the likes of Nevada and Bowling Green. Neither one of those teams have won a game so far in 2017 and they trailed Nevada 7-17 at the half. The Wildcats were absolutely dominated in a 41-17 loss at Duke and trailed Wisconsin 31-10 with less than 10 minutes to play.
The Badgers play a very physical style of football, which is going to make it that much tougher on Northwestern to bounce back here at home against one of most dynamic offenses the Big Ten has to offer. Look for Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley to have another monster game here.
The big key here is the defense for Penn State and it's ability to shutdown the Wildcats struggling offensive attack. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg.
Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). Take Penn State in a blowout!
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +4.5||Top||25-39||Win||100||57 h 42 m||Show|
5* Lou/NC State ACC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on NC State +
I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching points at home against the Cardinals on Thursday. I actually NC State is the better team in this matchup and should be the ones favored. The thing is the public is drawn to Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, so the books have no choice but to inflate their lines.
The Cardinals haven't really been all that impressive so far. They were fortunate to leave with a win over Purdue in their opener, only led UNC by 1-point going into the 4th quarter and were absolutely dominated by Clemson at home. Jackson is still putting up video game type numbers, but the offense as a whole hasn't been as good and the defense is a lot worse. He really struggled against the dominant defensive front of Clemson and NC State has quite a front of their own, who will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last year's 13-54 loss at Louisville.
The defensive numbers are better than they actually are because of their last two games against Kent State and Murray State, where they allowed a combined 230 total yards. This defense allowed 293 yards passing to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. NC State and junior QB Ryan Finley come in with the 24th ranked passing offense in the country at 293.0 ypg. Look for the Wolfpack to big up some big plays through the air that should allow some separation. Take NC State!
|10-04-17||Arkansas State -7 v. Georgia Southern||43-25||Win||100||25 h 25 m||Show|
4* Ark ST/Ga Sou Sun Belt 'ATS ANNIHILATOR' on Arkansas State -
With Red Wolves starting quarterback Justice Hansen upgraded to probable, I don't see this one being close. Georgia Southern is 0-3 and while two of those losses came at Auburn and at Indiana, they also lost 12-22 at home to New Hampshire out of the FCS. The Eagles have scored a whopping 46 points in their first 3 games. I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively to keep this one competitive, even at home.
Arkansas State on the other hand is averaging 35 ppg, having scored 36 in a near upset at Nebraska. The strength of the Red Wolves offensive assault is Hansen and the passing game, which ranks 9th in the country at 351.7 ypg. Not only will they be able to attack the Eagles thru the air, but Georgia Southern's run defense has been atrocious. They are giving up 5.9 yards/carry and 259 yards/game on the ground.
The Eagles passing attack ranks 129th out of 130 FBS teams at just 78.0 ypg. That's going to make it really tough on them to play from behind and should eliminate the back door cover. Georgia Southern lost 17-52 last time out to the Hoosiers and are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a loss by more than 20 points. The Eagles are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games an 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a conference opponent. Take Arkansas State!
|09-30-17||Iowa v. Michigan State -3||Top||10-17||Win||100||48 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Michigan State -
I love the value here getting Michigan State as a slim 3-point favorite at home against the Hawkeyes. This is an ideal spot to fade Iowa off that huge Saturday night home game against No. 4 Penn State, which they let slip through their fingers on the final play of regulation. On the flip side of this, we get Michigan State in an ideal bounce back spot off a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame.
Even if the situation was different, I would lay just a field goal at home with the Spartans. The biggest thing is I just don't think Iowa team is as good as people think. Sure they kept it close against the Nittany Lions, but they also beat Michigan in a similar spot a year ago and weren't that great. Wins over Wyoming, Iowa State and North Texas leave little to be desired.
Also, that game against Penn State could have been a lot worse. Iowa's offense was atrocious for pretty much the entire first half and ran about has as many plays as the Nittany Lions. They could have just as easily lost by 20+. As for Michigan State, they were a lot more competitive against Notre Dame than the final score would lead on, as they outgained the Irish 496 to 355. They come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg. If Iowa thought it was tough at home moving the ball against the Nittany Lions, they are in for a really long day on the road against a pissed of Spartans team. Take Michigan State!
|09-30-17||Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. Kentucky||20-24||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Eastern Michigan +
I like the value here with Eastern Michigan catching two touchdowns plus the hook. Chances are you haven't been paying close attention to the Eagles. This program is on the rise. After a 4-year stretch where they went 7-41, Eastern Michigan finished 7-5 and made a bowl last year. This turnaround is a result of head coach Chris Creighton, who will be getting a promotion to a bigger program in the near future. His recruits are finally seeing the field and playing big roles, as this is now year 4 with the team.
The come in off a loss to Ohio, but were in that game and could have just as easily won. The previous week they won on the road at Rutgers as a mere 6-point dog. The big key here is we catch Kentucky in the ideal spot to fade off a demoralizing 27-28 loss to Florida. A very similar spot to Tennessee last week, when they barely held on to beat UMass after losing the Gators on a Hail Mary. This is almost bigger than a bowl game for the Eagles, as they get to show their stuff against a SEC foe. I think they make a game of this and maybe even pull off the upset. Take Eastern Michigan!
|09-30-17||Georgia v. Tennessee +8||41-0||Loss||-110||48 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational 'PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR' on Tennessee +
I like the value here with the Volunteers catching over a touchdown at home against the Bulldogs. I just think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with this line after Tennessee barely scraped by UMass 17-13 as a 28-point favorite. The Vols struggling against the Minutemen was no surprise to most experts.
Tennessee had just suffered an excruciating loss to rival Florida the week before, where they rallied from a 10-point deficit to tie it at 20-20, only to have the Gators connect on a 63-yard Hail Mary as time expired. Just about every team is going to suffer a letdown after a loss like that. Had that Florida came went differently and the Vols were 4-0, I think this line would be a lot closer to 3 or 4 not 8.
Georgia has looked impressive and off a big win over Mississippi State, but it's not easy winning on the road in the SEC, especially against a quality opponent. Let's also not overlook that this Bulldogs team is only 83rd in the country in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing attack (166 ypg, 112th).
I expect a much more focused and determined Tennessee defense at home on Saturday afternoon and wouldn't be shocked if the Vols won this game outright. The underdog in this series is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Vols are 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they hosted the Bulldogs. Take Tennessee!
|09-30-17||Syracuse +14 v. NC State||25-33||Win||100||15 h 57 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Syracuse +
Now that this line has got up to 14, think it's worth a shot to take the Orange on the road against NC State. This is a really tough spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off a huge game and win on the road over Florida State, who they hadn't beat since that crazy 17-16 upset over the then No. 3 Seminoles back in 2012.
Hard to pay a ton of attention to Syracuse when you have another big game looming in just a matter of days, as they host Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. I just think they come out flat here and this Orange team can put up some points if you don't give your full respect. We saw that last week when they went on the road and gave LSU all they could handle in a 26-35 loss as a 21.5-point favorite. I think we see a similar type of game here, where they probably don't have a real shot at winning, but do enough to cash the cover. Take Syracuse!
|09-30-17||Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14||24-33||Loss||-110||44 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Wisconsin -
This might seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying at home, but I don't see this one being all that competitive. I'm not buying that Northwestern is just all the sudden back after a blowout win at home over a Bowling Green team that doesn't have a win this season, which includes a loss to a FCS school.
I think the biggest indicator here is the Wildcats game against Duke, which they lost 17-49. Northwestern managed just 191 total yards in that game 7 of those 17 points came in the final minutes of regulation with the game well in hand. Wisconsin's defense is even better than the Blue Devils.
The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in that loss at Duke, where they finished with a mere 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts.
I don't think the Badgers light up the scoreboard here, but I think they score 24+ and they are going to be in prime position to cover, as I just don't see Northwestern eclipsing 10-points. There's a chance Wisconsin could go for even more, but either way I like them to win by at least two touchdowns. Take Wisconsin!
|09-23-17||Mississippi State v. Georgia -4||3-31||Win||100||36 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Georgia -
After an impressive 37-7 win at home over LSU last week, the public is going to be on the Bulldogs here as dog against Georgia, who despite being ranked No. 11 isn't a team getting a lot of publicity either. I just don't see Mississippi State being able to bounce back from that near perfect performance with a similar one on the road against a much better Georgia team.
For me this one comes down to Georgia's defense under Kirby Smart and Mel Tucker being too much for Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald to overcome. A lot of what Mississippi State does offensively is built around their ability to get Fitzgerald going on the ground. Georgia has already faced a talented mobile quarterback and passed with flying colors. That would be Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush, who they limited to 1 yard on 16 attempts. Wimbush has rushed for 313 yards and 5 scores in his two other games this season, including a always strong BC defense.
I just see too much value here in Georgia at home laying less than a touchdown. Keep in mind Georgia is 51-14 at home SU over the last 10 years and the home team in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Georgia!
|09-23-17||TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State||44-31||Win||100||33 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on TCU +
I just think we are getting too much value on TCU to pass up a play on the Horned Frogs. No question Oklahoma State has looked impressive, but let's not get too carried away with how easy it's been. This team is going to be tested and it's a lot harder to blow teams out inside conference play. Especially a talented team like TCU, who has had a pretty impressive start of their own.
The Horned Frogs outgained Jackson State 542 to 65 in a 63-0 blowout win to start the year, followed that up with a convincing 28-7 win on the road over Arkansas and then beat SMU by 20. I know it's early, but they are ranked inside the Top 20 in both total offense and total defense.
TCU head coach Gary Patterson will put together a game plan here to slow down the Cowboys' high-flying offensive attack. Part of it will be the scheme defensively. The other will be the offense sustaining drives and keeping them off the field.
Dating back the Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a winning home record, 20-10 ATS in their last 30 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 as a road dog. Take TCU!
|09-22-17||Utah -3.5 v. Arizona||30-24||Win||100||16 h 59 m||Show|
4* Utah/Arizona CFB Late Night 'BAILOUT' on Utah -
I look for the Utes to go into Tucson and lay a beating on the Wildcats tonight. Utah is a team that I feel is flying under the radar right now, as not much was expected out of the Utes with just 9 starters back from last year. Kyle Whittingham has done a tremendous job in Salt Lake City and there's a lot of excitement about this year's team.
Utah has always had a strong defense due their ability to recruit and develop kids on that side of the ball. In year's past they have just tried to let their defense win them games by grinding out games. This year's team has a different feel, as they are taking a different approach on offense behind maybe the best kept secret in college football in sophomore quarterback Tyler Huntley, who beat out last year's starter Troy Williams (Sr) and Alabama transfer Cooper Bateman.
Huntley has been electric so far, throwing for 868 yards with an impressive 72% completion rate and 7.82 yards/attempt. However, it's his ability to run the ball that really makes him special, as he's already got 212 yards and 3 scores on the ground (puts him on pace for just under 1,000 yards rushing). He threw for 300 yards and rushed for 89 against BYU and while the Utes only won that game 19-13, they outgained the Cougars by almost 200 yards (had to settle for 4 field goals).
I think he has a big game here against an average Arizona defense and most importantly, I see Utah's defense making life miserable for a Wildcats offense that relies so much on their ability to run the ball. The Utes are built to stop the run defensively behind arguably the best d-line in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the country. Take Utah!
|09-21-17||Temple +20 v. South Florida||7-43||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* Temple/USF NCAAF ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Temple +
I think we are seeing an inflated line here, as the books know the public will want zero to do with Temple against a USF team that they have been backing with regularity early on, as they were one of the small conference teams everyone was talking about coming into the year. They will definitely be on the Bulls here after they covered a big spread on the road last week in a weekday prime time game against Illinois.
The thing is, that was the first game USF covered. Inflated lines have played a roll, as his this teams lack of focus. They were down 16-0 to San Jose State and were tied 17-17 with FCS foe Stony Brook in the 4th quarter.
USF's has really benefited in their first 3 games from winning the turnover margin, as they are +6, having forced at least 2 in each game. While Temple hasn't looked great, they have taken care of the ball, with their only turnover coming on a fumble against Notre Dame.
Bulls are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they have played a Thursday night game and 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring more than 40 points. The Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Take Temple!
|09-16-17||Kentucky +7 v. South Carolina||23-13||Win||100||32 h 2 m||Show|
4* Kentucky/S Carolina SEC "GAME OF THE WEEK' on Kentucky +
After a closer look at this one, I like the value here with Kentucky catching a full touchdown against the Gamecocks. South Carolina has looked the more impressive team in the first two games, winning as underdogs against both NC State and Missouri.
The Gamecocks won both of those contests despite getting outgained on the field. They lost the yardage battle 246 to 504 (-250) against NC State and 359-423 (-64) to Missouri. The reason South Carolina has been able to win is they have got outstanding special teams play and have won the turnover battle (+4). The problem is that's a difficult way to win and on top of that do so by more than a TD.
This could also be a bit of a letdown spot for South Carolina, as Kentucky hasn't looked great in a 24-17 win over Southern Miss and a mere 27-16 win against Eastern Kentucky at home. I got confidence in this Wildcats team and believe their best days are still to come, as we are talking about a team that returned 17 starters from a 7-win team a year ago. One that beat South Carolina 17-10, despite losing the turnover battle (-2). Take Kentucky!
|09-16-17||Tulsa v. Toledo -9||51-54||Loss||-110||31 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Small Conference ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Toledo -
I like the value here with the Rockets laying single-digits at home against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have become a popular public team the past couple years, due to the high-scoring offense and success against the spread (16-10). While they got destroyed by Oklahoma St 59-24 in their opener, most just chalk that up as a result of how good the Cowboys are. They then went out and beat Lafayette 66-42 and cover last week.
The thing is, I'm not 100% convinced Oklahoma State is as good as people think and let's not overreact to a win over a Sun Belt team that allowed 48 in their opener to Southeastern Louisiana. What's clear in Tulsa's first two games is they play zero defense. That certainly makes it a lot easier for a team to not just lose, but to lose badly. Let's also not forget that we are talking about a Golden Hurricane team that lost a ton from last year, including two 1,000 yard receivers, 1,600 yard rusher and their starting QB who threw for over 3,300 with 32 TDS.
Toledo was arguably the best team in the MAC not named Western Michigan last year and that was a rare special season for a team out of this conference. While they lost a stud in Kareem Hunt, they have a senior QB that threw for over 4,000 yards with a 45-9 TD-INT ratio. He's going to pick apart this Tulsa defense, which has allowed each of his first two opponents to throw for 300+. The Rockets D isn't elite, but should be able to get off the field enough here at home to turn this into a blowout. Take Toledo!
|09-16-17||Baylor +15 v. Duke||20-34||Win||100||25 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Baylor +
This just shows you how fast a team can go from being a team the public lines up to take each week to won that is catching more than two touchdowns against Duke. No disrespect to the Blue Devils, but this is the first time since 2009 that Baylor has been a dog of 14 or more against an unranked opponent since 2009 (95 games). For those wondering, that was at Missouri and they were a 14-point dog, won outright 40-32.
I'm sure you are asking what about the Bears losing to Liberty at home as a 31-point favorite and then losing to UTSA 10-17 as a 11-point favorite the next time out. It wasn't going to be lighting in a bottle to start out with Matt Rhule, but he's a really good coach and should have his players full attention from here on out.
The other big key here is that Baylor is making a change at quarterback, which is a good thing. Rhule tried to make it work with Arizona transfer Anu Solomon, who was completing less than 44% of his passes. In comes sophomore Zach Smith who started 4 games last year as a true and completed 59%. Most notably a great showing in their bowl game against a good Boise State defense. He gives this offense life.
While I see a hungry Baylor team looking to prove themselves, Duke is in a very difficult spot. They just rolled Northwestern 41-17 in game where they were getting zero love at home. They are feeling really good about themselves and could fall in the trap of thinking the Bears will be a pushover and start shifting their attention to next week's game against rival UNC. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Blue Devils went down outright. Take Baylor!
|09-16-17||Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +14||Top||59-21||Loss||-115||24 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conference 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Pittsburgh +
I believe the fact that Oklahoma State has looked so impressive early and Pittsburgh is coming off a 14-33 loss at Penn State, the line has been inflated too much not to take the Panthers. The Cowboys have looked good, but let's not overreact to wins over a Tulsa team that is down this year and a South Alabama team that trailed Ole Miss 47-13 before a couple of late scores to make it seem respectable.
Keep in mind that these two teams played last year at Oklahoma State and while the Cowboys won, they did so by a final of 45-38 and were a mere 3-pt favorite in that contest.
If you didn't watch the Pitt/Penn St game you would think the Panthers got dominated on the field. That wasn't the case at all. Pitt actually outgained Penn State 342-312. You might also see they needed OT to escape with a 28-21 win at home against Youngstown State. That program played in the FCS Championship Game last year.
I believe that if the Panthers can slow down the Nittany Lions and their explosive playmakers, they can do the same to the Cowboys. The fact that Oklahoma State has faced zero resistance from either defense they have faced could make it tough for them to adjust to actually having to work for first downs. Throw in a lookahead game against a now ranked TCU team and this game being in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked if the Panthers won this one outright. Which is why I love them catching two touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh!
|09-15-17||Illinois v. South Florida -17||Top||23-47||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on South Florida -
The public is jumping on the Illinois bandwagon after their 20-7 win at home over Western Kentucky as a 7-point dog. They see too many points against a USF team that has failed to cover each of their first two games. I'm going to the other way here and backing the Bulls in what I feel will be a blowout.
The thing with South Florida is expectations were sky-high this season, as most were calling for them to be undefeated. For them to struggle on the road against San Jose State and at home against Stony Brook is nothing to worry about. They knew they just had to show up to win those games. I expect to see a different intensity from this team when they take the field at home in a prime time night game on ESPN.
The win for Illinois of the Hilltoppers looks good on paper, but keep in mind that WKU is down this year with just 10 returning starters and most importantly lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who already appears to have had a huge impact on the Boilermakers.
Keep in mind the Illini could have easily lost their opener at home to Ball State, a game they trailed going into the 4th quarter and were outgained on the contest 375 to 216. I just don't see Illinois being able to keep pace offensively with Quinton Flowers and the Bulls high-powered offense. Take USF!
|09-09-17||Minnesota v. Oregon State -2||48-14||Loss||-110||59 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Oregon St -
A lot of people are going to look at this line and think the wrong team is favored. A big reason for that is the public has been drawn to Minnesota due to them hiring Fleck. They backed the Gophers big in their opener against Buffalo and despite coming up empty handed will likely be back on them here.
While I think Fleck is a good coach and his style will work in Minnesota, I don’t see this being a situation where he excels in year one. More times than not it takes a coach two or even three years to really start to see a big change on the field. There are some that meet exceptions right away under a new coach, but given how they played at home against Buffalo. A team that won 2-games last year. I think they are primed to disappoint this season.
This is also not your typical road game for Minnesota and the long travel for this game certainly won’t benefit them. On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that gained a lot of confidence and momentum with that late score to pull out a win at home. Not to mention the Beavers have 15 starters back from last year’s team, which actually outgained the Gophers 317 to 280 in defeat.
The concern with Oregon State is clearly their defense, but Minnesota is clearly a team they can contain. Minnesota was unable to single out one guy at quarterback and are rotating two guys. That rarely seems to work out well, as it becomes very difficult for the offense to get into any kind of rhythm. Nether really played great in the opener. The Gophers could really struggle to move the ball if they can’t get their running game going on the road. They only managed 3.3 yards/carry against what most see as a bottom tier MAC program.
At the same time, I look for the Beavers offense to have some success here. Oregon State is averaging 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and Jake Luton has completed 63% of his attempts.
Go against your gut and roll the Beavers at home in a revenge game against an overrated Minnesota squad. Take Oregon State!
|09-09-17||Stanford v. USC -6||Top||24-42||Win||100||57 h 6 m||Show|
5* Stanford/USC Pac-12 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on USC -
I think the books are setting a trap here and begging the public to load up on Stanford here, when the smart play is to take the Trojans at home in a huge revenge spot. The fact that USC struggled with Western Michigan has a lot of people second-guessing this team. On the flip side, Stanford left nothing to doubt in their 62-7 win over Rice, as McCaffrey's replacement, Bryce Love, racked up 180 yards on just 13 carries.
Had P.J. Fleck still been on the sidelines for Western Michigan, I think that win over the Broncos wouldn’t feel like a disappointment. The thing is most of those kids were Fleck’s recruits and that team is a lot better than people think. You also have to think that USC was looking just a little ahead to this game. Not only do they have big time revenge against the Cardinal, but this feels like a must-win for their program if they want to get back to that elite level.
The biggest thing a lot of people are going to see is how USC’s defense couldn’t stop the run against Western Michigan. They will assume that Stanford is going to be able to run all over them. A more focused and motivated Trojan defense should have a much better showing in this one. Keep in mind it’s the defense that feeds the most off the energy of the crowds in these big time nationally televised games.
As for the Cardinal’s blowout win over Rice, don’t read too much into that. The Owls’ program has been on a free fall of late and coming off a 3-9 campaign. They are once again picked to finish near the bottom of the C-USA.
I’m one that believes this USC team is the real deal. They have now won 10 straight dating back to last year’s 9-game winning streak to end the season. Of those 10 wins, 8 have come by more than a touchdown. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a blowout. Take USC!
|09-09-17||South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5||31-13||Loss||-110||56 h 35 m||Show|
4* S Carolina/Missouri SEC 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Missouri -
We are seeing a big overreaction here with South Carolina. The Gamecocks pulled off a surprising 35-28 upset win over NC State in their opener, but were fortunate to get the win and cover. South Carolina really got a boost early when they returned the opening kick for a score, which ended up being the difference in the game. The most telling stat is that the Gamecocks were outgained 504-246 and NC State had a 29-12 edge in first downs.
I believe that was more of NC State beating themselves than South Carolina being a team to really consider a threat in the SEC East. I look for a big regression here on the road. More than anything, I don't see them keeping pace with Missouri's high-powered scoring attack, as the defense clearly isn't a stretch if they give up over 500 yards to NC State.
The Tigers could very well have one of the elite scoring attacks in the country. Missouri returned 10 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Drew Lock, who has now started 21 games. I know it was against Missouri State, but the 72 points and 815 total yards of offense, led by Lock's record breaking performance that saw him throw for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Another huge factor here is revenge, as the Tigers lost last year's meeting 21-31 in Columbia. Revenge is a huge motivator in these power 5 conference, especially the SEC. The Tigers get their revenge on Saturday! Take Missouri!
|09-09-17||Auburn +6 v. Clemson||6-14||Loss||-115||56 h 32 m||Show|
3* Auburn/Clemson ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Auburn +
I really like the value here with Auburn as a road dog against Clemson. I really think this Auburn team is going to surprise a lot of people and wouldn't be shocked if they won the SEC West (host Alabama). A lot of people overlook just how good this Auburn defense is. They went from giving up 26 ppg in 2015 to just 17.1 ppg in 2016 and did it with just 6 starters back. The big jump came in the first year under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele.
They got 7 starters back, with a lot of the key pieces returning and the unit looked the part in their opener. Auburn held Georgia Southern to just 78 yards of total offense for the game. That's tells me that unit is locked in, to have that kind of intensity against a team they just have to show up to beat, especially with the defending champs on deck.
Everyone is singing the praises of Kelly Bryant after he impressed in Clemson's 56-3 blowout win over Kent State at home. I think it's going to be a lot harder for Bryant and Clemson's offense to get going against Auburn. Keep in mind they only scored 19 points on them last year with Deshaun Watson.
I know Clemson has a strong defense, but this Auburn offense is the real deal. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham finally gives Malzahn the signal caller needed to really get this offense rolling like it did in the past. Stidham should be able to pick apart defenses, given how much opposing teams are going to have to respect the run. Auburn rushed for 351 yards without their best roster in Kamryn Pettway (suspended for opener) and had his top backup for just a half. I look for Pettway to wear down Clemson's defense, who I think will be on the field a lot. Take Auburn!
|09-09-17||Iowa v. Iowa State +3||44-41||Push||0||49 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS 'SHOCKER' on Iowa St +
After a closer look at this matchup, I think the smart play here is one ISU catching the field goal at home against their in-state rival. The betting public is pounding Iowa and the books still have a very enticing line available on the Hawkeyes laying just 3-points. That's a good sign the books believe the Cyclones won't just cover, but win this game outright.
The Hawkeyes had some impressive moments in last week's 24-3 win at home over Wyoming, but they caught some fortunate breaks that make that final look worse than it was. Iowa's offense left a lot to be desired. New starting QB Nathan Stanley completed 8 of 15 for just 125 yards. Akrum Wadley rushed for 116 yards, but Iowa only had a 138 on the ground in 41 attempts (3.4 yards/carry). Wyoming did return 8 starters on defense, but they gave up 204 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry.
I think the home crowd and extra motivation that comes from this rivalry game, the Cyclones defense will be able to hold their own. I also think Iowa State's offense is one that could give the Hawkeyes trouble. The Cyclones have a lot of playmakers on offense, including one of the Big 12's best wide outs in Allen Lazard. I think they can advantage of a secondary that lost 3 starters from one of the better pass units in 2016. Take Iowa State!
|09-08-17||Ohio +4 v. Purdue||Top||21-44||Loss||-115||33 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Ohio +
I think a lot of people are going to look at the fact that Purdue was ultra competitive against Louisville as a sign that this team is legit. With that they will assume they should be able to win by at least a touchdown in their home opener over a MAC team. Winning 59-0 over a crap FCS school isn’t going to sway the public towards the Bobcats.
The thing is, Ohio is more than capable of winning this game outright. This has the makings of one of the Bobcats better teams in the Frank Solich era (13th year). This team played Western Michigan tough in the MAC title game last year, losing 23-29 as a 17-point dog, so there's clearly some talent here.
They aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated playing on the road against a team like Purdue. They won at Kansa by 16 last year and lost by single-digits at Tennessee.
A big concern I have with Purdue is them suffering a letdown. Even if you are big underdog, letting a 8-point lead slip away in the final 25 minutes is going to hurt. They could also be looking ahead to a big road game at Missouri next week, followed by their Big Ten home opener against the Wolverines.
Another concern for me is the Purdue offense. While the score was close against Louisville, they only had 51 rushing yards on 21 attempts (2.4 yards/carry). A big part of the struggles on the ground had to do with last year’s leading rusher Markell Jones suffering an injury. One that will keep him out of this game. The Boilermakers also committed 4 turnovers and were aided by 16 Louisville penalties for 110 yards. That game could have been a lot uglier than it was.
It’s also worth noting that Ohio is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road games, while Purdue is a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the Bobcats!
|09-03-17||West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5||24-31||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Virginia Tech -
The transition from long-time head coach Frank Beamer to Justin Fuente couldn’t have went any better for Hokies fans. Fuente stepped in and guided the program to a 10-4 record, which included a trip to the ACC title game and 35-24 bowl victory. Quite an improvement for a team that hadn’t posted a double-digit win campaign since 2011.
Virginia Tech did lose a lot from last year, but still have 12 returning starters. The defense should once again be top notch under Bud Foster, as 7 of those starters return on that side of the ball. As for the offense, I have all the confidence in Fuente piecing together the new pieces and still have this team averaging over 30+ ppg.
As for West Virginia, I think they come in way overrated this season. They were fortunate to get to 10 wins last year. They had 4 wins by 4-points or less, plus some other close calls that went their way. Not to mention you could argue the three best teams they faced were Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Miami and they weren’t competitive in any of those matchups, losing all 3 by at least 17.
I just think the addition of Grier is getting way to much respect given the circumstances. He’s not playing with the same talent that he was at Florida. At the same time, the Hokies figure to be even better on defense in 2017.
Let’s also not overlook the fact that West Virginia only has 3 starters back on defense that wasn’t as good as the 24.0 ppg they allowed. Not to mention they basically have a whole new front on defense. It was so bad they had to go out and bring in a bunch of Juco transfers to try and be competitive.
Mountaineers are a mere 6-15 ATS in their last 21 versus the ACC. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 in their last 4 on a neutral site. Take Virginia Tech!
|09-02-17||Michigan v. Florida +5.5||33-17||Loss||-110||24 h 54 m||Show|
4* Michigan/Florida NCAAF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Florida +
The public is jumping all over the Wolverines after the news of the players that will be suspended for Florida in this game. I believe it's created some big time value on the Gators, who I actually think are going to win this game outright.
People forget how talented this Florida team has been on both sides of the ball the last two years. They simply have got next to nothing out of the quarterback position. Will Grier is the best they have had at QB under McElwain and he lasted just 5-games to open the 2015 seasons before getting suspended. I believe red-shirt freshman Feleipe Franks is on Grier's level and makes the Gators the team to beat in the SEC East.
Michigan is well on it's way to being one of those teams that just reloads regardless of what they lost the previous season to the NFL or graduation. I just don't think they are there in year 3 under Harbaugh. The Wolverines have just 5 starters back and lost a ridiculous 31 lettermen. That's 10 more lettermen than Alabama has to replace. Experience means something and I just don't trust a young team in a huge game like this.
Mistakes are going to be made by the Wolverines and in the end I think it will be turnovers that propels the Gators to the win. Note that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have 6 or more returning starters than their opponent are 59-25 (70%) ATS in the first month of the season since 1992. Take Florida!
|09-01-17||Washington v. Rutgers +27.5||30-14||Win||100||22 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Friday Night ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Rutgers +
I like the value here with Rutgers as a massive home dog against No. 8 Washington. As expected the public is all over the Huskies, as they love to back Top 10 teams and fade programs like Rutgers who only won 2 games last year.
The thing is the line has been drastically inflated. Keep in mind that Washington was only a 26-point home favorite against Rutgers last year, which was also the season opener for both teams.
This is big game for the Scarlet Knights and 2nd year head coach Chris Ash. They want to show that they can compete with a top tier team. They weren't as outclassed in last year's game as the 48-13 final score would suggest. Rutgers held Washington to just 380 total yards and 17 first downs, while they had a respectable 30-4 yards and 21 first downs.
The offense has high hopes of taking a big step forward, as they believe they upgraded at QB with Louisville grad transfer Kyle Bolin. I also like the decision to make a change at OC, as they brought in former Minnesota HC Jerry Kill. I think the improvements on offense and the game being at home will be enough for the Scarlet Knights to keep this from being a massive blowout and cover the large spread. Take Rutgers!
|08-26-17||Hawaii v. UMass -2||38-35||Loss||-110||32 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Opening Saturday ATS 'NO BRAINER' on UMass -2
Most will be on Hawaii given they beat UMass late last year and had the much better overall record in 2016. The Rainbow Warriors went 7-7, getting to a bowl for the first time since 2010, while the Minutemen finished a mere 2-10.
Forget the record, you have to take notice of how well UMass played at Hawaii, as they were only outgained by 20-yards and had a chance to win late. Mark Whipple has this program headed in the right direction and this has the makings of a breakout year with 15 starters back, including junior QB Andrew Ford, who threw for 2,665 yards with a 26-14 TD-INT ration in only 9 starts.
Another huge factor here is Hawaii is not a good road team, due to how much they have to travel. They have had an especially tough time playing on the east coast. That combined with the huge revenge angle for UMass has me siding with the home team in this one. Take UMass!
|01-09-17||Clemson +7 v. Alabama||Top||35-31||Win||100||77 h 12 m||Show|
5* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Vegas Insider on Clemson
I think the value here is clearly with the Tigers catching almost a touchdown. Clemson proved last year they can hang with Alabama. In fact, you could argue they outplayed the Crimson Tide given the stats. Clemson had a 550 to 473 edge in total yards and 33-18 advantage in first downs. The thing is that there’s so much love for the SEC and Alabama, the books have no choice but to inflate this number.
There’s a lot of talk about how great this Crimson Tide defense is. There’s no denying it’s good, I just don’t know that it’s as elite as people think. The numbers going into the championship game aren’t all that far off from last year. They are allowing 11.4 ppg and 244 ypg. Last year they gave up 15.1 ppg and 276 ypg. The thing to keep in mind, is the SEC wasn’t nearly as good this year as it was in 2015.
Keep in mind that they went into the title game last season off a dominant defensive effort. They had just shutout Michigan State in a 38-0 win. Holding the Spartans to just 239 yards and 16 first downs.
One of the reasons that Alabama puts up such great defensive numbers in the SEC, is there’s not a lot of great QB’s. I know Browning got a lot of love, but I don’t think he’s what people make him out to be. The two best quarterbacks the Tide faced in the SEC were Chad Kelly from Ole Miss and Austin Allen from Arkansas. Kelly went 26 of 40 for 421 yards and 3 TDs, as the Rebels put up 43 points. Allen went 25 of 48 for 400 yards and 3 TDs.
Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is better than both of those guys. I think we are going to see the Tigers offense put up a big number here. The big difference this time around, is Alabama’s offense isn’t as good. Jalen Hurts just isn’t as big of a threat in the passing game as Coker was last season. In fact, this Crimson Tide offense reminds me a lot of what Clemson just faced in Ohio State.
If that wasn’t enough, Alabama fired offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin after the semifinal game. Steve Sarkisian will fill the void. Whether you like Kiffin or not, he’s an excellent offensive mind. He excelled at making adjustments mid game and getting the players in spots to succeed. I don’t know how big the drop off will be, but I don’t think it’s going to be as good as it would have been.
I also think there’s a big edge to the team who lost the first meeting in these rematch scenarios. I’ll gladly take the points as insurance, but I think the Tigers win this one outright. Take Clemson!
|01-02-17||USC -7 v. Penn State||Top||52-49||Loss||-105||8 h 49 m||Show|
5* USC/Penn St Rose Bowl No Limit Top Play on USC -
I like the chances of history repeating itself. The last time these two teams played in the Rose Bowl was against each other in 2009 (2008 season). The Trojans cruised to a 38-24 victory (led 31-7 at half) as a 9-point favorite.
Playing in the Rose Bowl has worked out well for USC in the last few decades. This will the Trojans 8th appearance in this bowl since 1990. They have gone 7-1 with the last 4 wins all coming by at least 14 points. The only loss was to Texas in the 2005 BCS Championship Game. A big reason for their success is how close this is to home.
As impressive as the Nittany Lions’ run has been to close out the season, I just don’t trust them. They lost by 39 to Michigan and should have lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Those are hands down the 3 best teams in the Big Ten.
USC on the other hand is a team I feel is better than their record. The turning point of the season was when Sam Darnold replaced Max Browne at quarterback. If Darnold would have opened the season as the starter, I think USC would have won the Pac-12. What they did to Washington on the road, really speaks volumes to how good they are.
I just don’t see the Nittany Lions defense being able to stop USC’s offense. Not to take anything away from the Big Ten, but they don’t have a lot of elite quarterbacks. I believe Darnold is the best QB they will have played all season.
Another big thing here is the speed of the Trojans. We have seen a lot of these Big Ten teams struggle in non-conference play against these fast and athletic teams. Just look back to last year’s Rose Bowl, when Iowa was destroyed by Stanford. Speaking of that, Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral site. Take USC!
|01-02-17||Western Michigan +9 v. Wisconsin||16-24||Win||100||4 h 44 m||Show|
4* W Michigan/Wisconsin Cotton Bowl ATS No Brainer on W Michigan +
I’m more than willing to “Row the Boat” on the Broncos at this price. I actually think Western Michigan can win this game outright. It reminds me a lot of last year’s Peach Bowl. Houston out of the AAC was a 7-point dog to Florida State. The Cougars didn’t just cover, they dominated in a 38-24 win. That was against a Seminoles team that went 10-2 in the regular season.
You could argue that this is even a more favorable spot for the Broncos than it was for the Cougars. Unlike Florida State, Wisconsin comes in off a loss in their conference championship game. Instead of playing in the Rose Bowl against USC, they are stuck facing a team from the MAC. It’s a very difficult spot to get up for, especially given how they lost in the Big Ten title game.
There’s still not many people who believe in this Western Michigan team. Sure they went 13-0, but they played in a MAC that wasn’t great this year. They did have two wins over Power 5 teams, but they were Illinois and Northwestern. To their credit, both were true road games. It’s worth noting that Northwestern team they beat played the Badgers tough.
What I think people are overlooking, is the Broncos played two of the Big Ten’s best last year. They lost by just 13 points to a Michigan State team that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. They also lost by 26 at Ohio State, who was arguably the most talented team in the country. On top of all that, this year’s Broncos team is way better than last year’s squad.
The best and arguably the most surprising news with Western Michigan, is P.J. Fleck is still the head coach. A lot of people, including myself, thought he was going to be scooped up by a bigger and better program. That didn’t happen and I think it only adds more fuel to the fire for the Broncos.
I know the conference they played in helped, but you can’t just ignore the numbers. This Western Michigan team was 16th in total offense (496.7 ypg) and 25th in total defense (353 ypg). The most important thing, the Broncos aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated by the Badgers. They are going into this game believing they are the better team. Win or lose, I think it comes down to the wire and they keep it within a touchdown. Take Western Michigan!
|12-31-16||Ohio State -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||0-31||Loss||-105||28 h 11 m||Show|
5* Fiesta Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State -2.5
I absolutely love catching the Buckeyes at less than a field goal here. I know there’s a lot of talk about how this is a bad matchup for Ohio State. I’m not buying it. This Buckeyes team has the talent on both sides of the ball to take down the Tigers.
There’s plenty of opinions out there about the Big Ten. Some believe it was the best conference in the country, others think it’s overrated. I’m in the middle. I think there’s some elite teams in the Big Ten, but also a lot of sub-par teams. The thing is, Ohio State proved itself against the best teams. They also have that impressive 45-24 win at Oklahoma to back it up.
Clemson on the other hand barely won at Auburn 19-13 earlier in the year. The win over Louisville also doesn’t look as impressive given how they finished. Florida State was also down this year.
The thing that stands out to me is how the Tigers defense struggled against the better teams in the ACC. They gave up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State, 42 to Pittsburgh and 35 to Virginia Tech. The most the Buckeyes gave up in regulation all season was 24 points.
I know Deshaun Watson is a big time talent at quarterback, but I think he struggles here. We saw Ohio State make life miserable for Heisman finalist Baker Mayfield. In my opinion, it’s the best defense the Tigers have faced since playing Auburn in the opener. Watson wasn’t great in that game and I don’t think he will be here.
The biggest x-factor is Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. He just doesn’t lose these high-profile games. Meyer is 3-1 in bowl games with the Buckeyes and 10-2 in his career. When he has extra time to prepare for an opponent, it’s usually not good for the other team. Meyer is 9-1 off a bye at Ohio State and 29-3 in his career as a head coach. He’s also 19-5 in neutral site games and 31-13 against Top 25 opponents. Take Ohio State!
|12-31-16||Washington v. Alabama -14||7-24||Win||100||24 h 54 m||Show|
4* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl ATS Annihilator on Alabama -
There’s been quite a bit of action both ways since this line first opened at Alabama -14. It was quickly bet up and reached as high as 17. However, it’s since been bet down back to the original number at most places. I know this is a lot of points, but my money is on the Crimson Tide in this one.
It’s really been remarkable what Alabama has been able to do this season. Not only did the Tide go 13-0 with just 11 returning starters and a target on their back, they finished 10-3 ATS. It’s also worth noting they were 5-1 ATS in their 6 games away from home. I think that really tells you just how good this team is. The books were doing everything they could to inflate their spreads and it didn’t matter.
My hat goes off to Petersen and what he’s been able to with the Washington program. I just think they are outclassed here and will struggle to make this a game. There’s a couple of things that really concern me with the Huskies. They didn’t play anyone in non-conference play. At the same time, the Pac-12 was so watered down that Colorado ended up playing in the title game against them. The best team they played was USC and they lost by 13 at home and were outgained 400-276.
Now I know that USC team they lost to wasn’t the same team that Alabama played in their opener. However, you can’t simply ignore the fact that the Crimson Tide crushed the Trojans 52-6. Outgaining USC 465 to 194.
I just have a really hard time seeing the Huskies doing a lot offensively in this one. Alabama’s defense is one of the best I have seen in a long time. They allowed a whopping 58 points in their last 7 games combined. Only twice all season did they allow more than 16 points.
What makes the Crimson Tide defense so good is you simply can’t run on them. They led the country in run defense, allowing just 63.4 ypg and gave up just 2.1 yards/carry. Washington’s struggles against USC were a direct result of them not being able to run the ball. They finished with 17 yards on 27 attempts. Browning was under constant pressure and it got to him. I like the kid, but I don’t think he has a chance here.
I know Washington’s defense is legit, but I don’t think it’s good enough to keep Alabama in check. Especially given the circumstances. Without a running game, the Huskies offense will struggle to stay on the field. It will only be a matter of time before this Washington defense cracks. Like we saw against Florida, the Tide can turn a close game into a blowout in no time at all. Take Alabama!
|12-30-16||Florida State +7 v. Michigan||Top||33-32||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
5* Michigan/Florida St Orange Bowl No Limit Top Play on Florida State +
This one is all about motivation, as I think most would agree Michigan is the better team. To the public this looks like a great bowl game to be in, but for the Wolverines it’s the last place they want to be. The loss to Ohio State in the finale was about as crushing of a blow as a team will face outside of losing in the playoffs.
It would be one thing if they got dominated by the Buckeyes, but they had to feel like they should have won. They led 17-7 in the 2nd half and Ohio State needed a game-tying field goal as time expired to force overtime. Not only do I think they FSU will keep this within 7-points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game.
It reminds me a lot of the 2013 Sugar Bowl, where No. 3 Alabama took on No. 11 Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide were a 15-point favorite, but simply didn’t want to be there. They had just lost their finale to Auburn, which essentially kept them out of the BCS title game. The average Joe bettor just doesn’t factor in how hard it is to play in a meaningless bowl game when you feel like you should be playing for a national title.
I understand that Florida State had lofty expectations of their own coming into the year. The big difference is their losses came early in the year. They have had more than enough time to come to terms with their season not going as anticipated. I see the Seminoles using this game as a measuring stick for where they are going into next season. Much like Oklahoma did in that game against Alabama.
As far as the numbers are concerned, this is one instance where they really aren’t all that important. It doesn’t matter what a team did in the regular season. If they aren’t motivated to play, the stats are meaningless. I just feel there’s way to much value here with Florida State catching a touchdown in this one. Take FSU!
|12-30-16||North Carolina +1.5 v. Stanford||23-25||Loss||-105||4 h 57 m||Show|
4* UNC/Stanford Sun Bowl No Brainer on UNC +
With McCaffrey sitting out the bowl game, I think the value shifts to North Carolina. I completely understand McCaffrey’s decision, but I believe it negatively impacts the Cardinal here. You don’t just take away one of the elite players in the game an expect a team to not suffer some kind of setback. Especially given how much the offense is centered around him.
I just don’t think this sits well with his teammates and takes away some of the edge here for Stanford. Keep in mind this isn’t exactly the bowl game the Cardinal thought they would be playing in. They came in believing they were the best team in the Pac-12 and were going to be headed to the playoffs.
Even before the McCaffrey news, I had some concerns with the Cardinal. Sure they won 6 of their 7, including 5 straight to end the year. However, a big part of that was the schedule got a lot easier. Their final 5 games were against Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal and Rice. Not a single one of those teams finished with a winning record.
There will be plenty of people who point to North Carolina’s poor showing in last year’s bowl game. I actually think that works in the Tar Heels favor. I have to think there’s some level of pride here for UNC. It’s also a much different scenario than last season. The Tar Heels had won 11 straight before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship. A game if they won, would have potentially got them into the playoffs. Few teams are going to play well in a bowl game given those circumstances.
I know it’s not a great matchup for UNC’s defense, which has struggled against the run. However, it’s not near as bad with McCaffrey not in action. I also don’t think enough credit is being given to the Tar Heels offense. UNC has a potential 1st round draft pick at QB and some other talented playmakers on offense. This team is going to put up some points here and I don’t know that Stanford can keep pace. Take North Carolina!
|12-29-16||Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3||Top||38-8||Loss||-100||11 h 21 m||Show|
5* Alamo Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on Colorado -
I like the Buffaloes in this one. I don’t love backing teams after losing in their conference championship game. However, Oklahoma State is in an identical spot. The Cowboys finale against Oklahoma was for the Big 12 title, it just wasn’t technically a title game. The key here is that Colorado isn’t going to hang their heads. They have a chance to bring the school their first bowl win since 2004 (first bowl game since 2007).
Not only do I think the Buffaloes have the motivational edge, I think they are the better team. Sure, Colorado got destroyed by Washington, but that’s an elite Huskies team. Their other two losses were on the road against Michigan and USC. Keep in mind they had a 21-7 lead early against the Wolverines and may have won that game if not for starting quarterback Sefo Liufau getting hurt.
Oklahoma State had a great season based on their record, but I’m simply not a believer in the Big 12. Outside of Oklahoma, who ran the table in conference play, the rest of the conference is average at best. Keep in mind this Cowboys team lost to Central Michigan at home. I know there was a bad call late, but that’s a team Colorado would destroy. Oklahoma St also had close calls against the likes of Iowa State (38-31) and Texas Tech (45-44). Two bad football teams.
I don’t put a lot of stock in Oklahoma State’s offense. I know they finished 17th in the country in total offense at 492.3 ypg, but the Big 12 doesn’t play defense. When it mattered against the best of the Big 12, they managed just 20 points against the Sooners.
Colorado’s defense is the real deal. The Buffaloes were 17th in total defense (328.3 ypg). They were solid against the run (145.8 ypg, 39th) and great against the pass (182.5 ypg, 13th).
On the flip side of this, Oklahoma State’s defense was awful this season. The Cowboys finished 108th out of 128 teams, giving up 457.0 ypg. Colorado is a well-balanced offense, ranking in the Top 50 in both rushing and passing. I look for them to have a field day in this one. Even if the defense doesn’t play great, they should get enough stops to win here by more than a field goal. Take Colorado!
|12-28-16||West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5||Top||14-31||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
5* Russell Athletic Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on Miami -
West Virginia comes in ranked No. 16 in the country. There’s only 4 other Power 5 teams who lost fewer than 2 games, and they are all 4 in the playoffs. While Miami finished 8-4, their only signature win was against Pitt. The rest were all games they were suppose to dominate.
The thing with West Virginia is they aren’t as good as their 10-2 record would lead on. Outside of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Big 12 was a joke this season. The Mountaineers two conference losses came against both these teams and neither was close. They lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State and were destroyed at home 28-56 by Oklahoma.
The only other team in the Big 12 with a winning conference record was Kansas State. The beat the Wildcats 17-16 at home and were very lucky to do so. They trailed 3-16 going into the 4th quarter of that game. That was one of 4 wins by 4-points or less, as they were 4-0 in games decided by 7-points or less.
I mentioned earlier that Miami didn’t have any big wins outside of Pittsburgh. However, they destroyed the Panthers 51-28 at home. Keep in mind that’s a Panthers team that is currently ranked No. 23. The Hurricanes only bad loss was a 16-37 defeat at Virginia Tech. Which came after two heartbreaking losses to FSU (19-20) and UNC (13-20).
On top of all that, I think this is a great matchup for Miami. The Hurricanes have a legit defense that can give West Virginia trouble. Miami ranked 27th in the country in total defense, allowing just 355.2 ypg. Keep in mind that West Virginia’s offense struggled against the better teams they played.
At the same time, the Mountaineers defense wasn’t as good against the top teams. They really had their struggles against teams who attacked them through the air. West Virginia finished a mere 99th in the country against the pass (255.7 ypg). That’s a major concern for them here, as Miami finished 27th in passing at 273.5 ypg. Take Miami!
|12-27-16||Wake Forest +12.5 v. Temple||34-26||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS No Brainer on Wake Forest +
How do you go against a team that’s covered 12 straight? It’s not easy, but I think the value is with the Demon Deacons in this one. I’m not a fan of teams hiring coaches before they play a bowl game, but it’s the way it is.
While I don’t think it came as a surprise to see Rhule land a job elsewhere, it still hurts. Especially for the kids who signed on at Temple to play for him with eligibility left. I just think it takes away all the momentum this team had going for them. It gives Wake Forest a shot at competing here and potentially winning this game outright.
It’s also worth noting that I would likely have leaned on the Demon Deacons even if Rhule hadn’t left. That’s because there’s no doubt in my mind that oddsmakers have inflated this line. They are as aware as anyone that Temple has covered 12 straight. They know the public will back them just because of that and have adjusted this line accordingly.
This is also a big number for a team to be laying in what has the makings of a defensive battle. The total for this game is just 41 points, so the books are clearly not expecting a lot of offense. That only adds even more value to Wake Forest catching double-digits.
I’m not going to go deep into the numbers here. The statistics are going to favor Temple just about anyway you look at them. This is all about the situation and it simply being a bad spot for Temple. One of Rhule’s biggest strengths was his ability to get his team prepared for their next opponent. Not having him on the sidelines is a massive loss for Temple, as he's the reason they are are where they are. Without him this team wouldn't have won the AAC. It just won’t be the same for the Owls leading up to this game. I also think the Demon Deacons have a lot to prove here with all the negative talk around the program with the plays getting leaked to opponents. Take Wake Forest!
|12-26-16||Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5||17-41||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
4* Vanderbilt/NC State Independence Bowl ATS Annihilator on NC State -
This Wolfpack team has something to prove in this game. NC State could very easily have 9 or more wins. They had a 3-point loss at ECU earlier in the year, where they blew a 4th quarter lead. They had that crushing loss at Clemson, where they missed a chip shot field goal to win in regulation. The also had a 10-point lead in the 2nd half against FSU in a 20-24 defeat.
I know Vanderbilt played a tough schedule in the SEC, but you can’t overlook the slate of NC State. They were in one of the best divisions in football with Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. They also played a good Miami and North Carolina team out of the Coastal, who both finished up at 8-4.
It’s also worth pointing out that loss to Clemson really hit this team hard. They lost 3 straight after that crushing defeat. I believe the win over North Carolina really changed the attitude of the players. I look for them to carry over that momentum into the bowl game.
The biggest reason I like NC State in this game is their defensive line. It’s one of the best units in the country. Led by junior defensive end Bradley Chubb, who had 20.5 TFL and 9 sacks. That defensive front for the Wolfpack helped guide NC State to the 5th best run defense in the country. They allowed just 104.7 ypg and a mere 3.2 yards/carry.
I know Vanderbilt got their passing game going late in the year, but it’s a bit misleading. The two games were against Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Rebels finished 110th in total defense and the Volunteers were 109th. Those were also two unmotivated teams finishing out disappointing seasons. In the Commodores other 7 games against Power 5 opponents they failed to score more than 17 points. That includes games against the likes of Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri.
Vanderbilt’s defense will come to play, but it’s a unit that can be had. The Commodores were 59th against the run and 85th against the pass. I just see NC State having the much easier time scoring and winning here by at least a touchdown. Take NC State!
|12-21-16||BYU -10 v. Wyoming||24-21||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* Poinsettia Bowl ATS Annihilator on BYU -
It’s hard to not root for Wyoming given their improbable run in 2016, but this is about making money. I believe laying the big number with the Cougars gives us the best chance of profiting in this one.
While I’m sure Wyoming is excited about getting to a bowl game, this is unfamiliar territory. I also think it’s a tough spot for the Cowboys. They put everything they had into the MWC title game and to lose by just 3-points will be tough to bounce back from.
You could argue that BYU isn’t going to be excited about playing a team like Wyoming. I’m not buying that for a second. While the Cougars have been to 12 straight bowl games, they haven’t won one since 2012. That means most of the players on this roster have only tasted defeat in their bowl experiences.
The last two bowl losses haven’t sit well. Two years ago they lost 48-55 to Memphis in double-overtime at the Miami Beach Bowl. Last year they lost 28-35 to rival Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. A game in which they fell behind 35-0 on some fluke plays in the 1st quarter. I expect this team to show up in a big way here. Not only can they end their bowl losing streak, they can give head coach Sitake his first bowl win as a coach.
Not only do I think BYU has the motivational edge, but I think they have the advantage on the field. The Cougars will be without starting QB Taysom Hill. However, backup Tanner Mangum is more than capable of leading the offense. Especially, given he has an elite running back to hand it off to. Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1,165 yards and 11 scores. He’s already become BYU’s all-time leading rusher. I look for him to be extremely motivated to end his career on a high note.
He shouldn’t have much trouble doing just that. Wyoming’s defense is one of the worst in the country. The Cowboys ranked 88th against the run (202.7 ypg) and 106th against the pass (261.3 ypg). They were also 105th in points allowed, giving up 34.8 ppg.
On the flip side of the ball, BYU’s defense is built to slow down this Wyoming offense. The Cowboys are a team that wants to run the football, as they averaged 208.5 ypg. That plays right into the strength of the Cougars defense. BYU ranked 8th in the country against the run, allowing just 108.4 ypg.
So while the Cowboys figure to have a hard time stopping BYU’s offense, the Cougars should get plenty of stops. I believe that will be enough for the Cougars to win here by 14-plus. Take BYU!
|12-20-16||Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky||Top||31-51||Loss||-110||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* Boca Raton Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Memphis +
A big reason why I like the Tigers has to do with Brohm’s departure. While the players understand the decision, it’s not one they like. A lot of these kids came to Western Kentucky because of him. Him leaving really takes away the edge and motivation this team was playing with.
Brohm’s absence hurts the Hilltoppers from an emotional point of view, as well as in the X’s and O’s. Not only was he the head coach, but he served as the offensive coordinator. Play-calling will fall on the shoulders of WR’s coach Bryan Ellis. Nothing against him, but I don’t see the offense having the same rhythm to it.
It’s also worth noting that there was reason to like Memphis in this game even before the news. While Western Kentucky has an explosive offense, they are vulnerable defensively. I know they finished 37th in total defense (367.8 ypg) and 39th in scoring (24.1 ppg). However, a lot of that had to do with their schedule. They played a lot of really bad offensive teams this season. Rice, Houston Baptist, FAU, FIU, North Texas and Marshall just to name a few.
When up against a quality offense points and yards were easy to come by for the opposition. While I don’t think Memphis is as good offensively as their numbers, they are a talented group. Led by one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Riley Ferguson. He completed 63.8% of his attempts for 3,326 yards with 28 TD’s to just 9 INT’s. Ferguson torched Houston in the Tigers finale, throwing for 409 yards and 4 scores. Memphis as a team was 33rd in total offense (461.5 ypg) and 17th in scoring (39.5 ppg).
Given how both of these teams have struggled defensively, I think you have to take your chances with Memphis in this spot. The Tigers are going to be the more focused and better coached team leading up to this game. Take Memphis!
|12-17-16||Houston -4.5 v. San Diego State||Top||10-34||Loss||-110||24 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (LV Bowl) on Houston -
I believe the fact that Houston lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas after the season concluded, has actually created some value here on the Cougars. Once it was official that the Big 12 wasn't going to be expanding (Houston was a prime candidate), just about everyone knew that Herman was going to be leaving the program for a Power 5 conference. The Houston players certainly didn't love seeing him go, but they knew it was coming. I just don't see it having a negative impact on them in this game.
The decision to hire within and promote Major Applewhite is also something I like. It keeps the continuity in the lockerrom. There's those that will argue the Cougars will lack motivation after a season that didn't go as planned. The thing is, this team has been out of the playoff talk for months. I actually see this as a statement game for Houston, who will want to put a positive ending to this season.
That's really all that we are looking for, as the Cougars are without question the more talented team. They also have some big time seniors, like quarterback Greg Ward, who they are going to want to send out in style. As for San Diego State, they won their 2nd straight MWC title, but didn't exactly play well down the stretch. They lost their final two regular season games and then barely squeaked out a win against Wyoming in the title game 27-24. Keep in mind this is an Aztecs team that was not tested in non-conference play and I'm one that wasn't all that impressed with the overall play of the MWC. Note that San Diego State's division in the MWC was a joke. The next best team in the division was Hawaii, who finished 6-7 and are simply not a good football team.
On top of all that, this is a good matchup for Houston. The Cougars have the talent offensively to score on any team in the country. So while the Aztecs defense has great number, I don't see them keeping Houston from moving the ball. On the flip side of this, San Diego State features a very limited offense, that depends greatly on their ability to run the ball. That's a problem. The Cougars finished 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 97.9 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry against teams who averaged 4.3. Take Houston!
|12-17-16||Texas-San Antonio +7.5 v. New Mexico||20-23||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
4* New Mexico Bowl ATS No Brainer on UTSA +
I know this is a home game for the Lobos, but I believe it’s already been factored into the line and if anything has New Mexico overvalued on the number. Just looking at the records, the public will be all over the Lobos. However, I think these are two very evenly matched teams and wouldn't be shocked if the Roadrunners won this game outright.
The Lobos come into this game with the nations top ranked rushing attack, averaging 360.9 ypg. I’m not as big on teams like New Mexico who are one dimensional in these bowl games. Especially when facing a team that has the ability to counter that strength. I believe UTSA is capable of at least slowing down that Lobos rushing attack.
The Roadrunners finished a respectable 58th in the country in total defense (401.1 ypg). Most importantly they were at their best against the run, allowing just 157.8 ypg. That’s pretty impressive given the explosive offenses in C-USA. UTSA also played two capable Power 5 offenses in Texas A&M and Arizona State. It’s also worth pointing out that UTSA hasn’t allowed more than 185 rushing yards in any of their last 8 games.
On the flip side of this, I think the UTSA offense can have success here against the Lobos defense. New Mexico ranked 95th in the country, giving up 32.4 ppg. That’s critical here, as the Roadrunners are a bit limited offensively.
These two did play one common opponent in Colorado State. While both lost to the Rams, UTSA only lost by 9 on the road, where New Mexico lost by 19. It’s also worth noting while the Roadrunners played ASU (28-32) and Texas A&M (10-23) tough, the Lobos lost to an awful Rutgers team 28-37.
We also have a solid trend in play favoring a fade of the Lobos. In their finale, New Mexico beat Wyoming 56-35, leading by as much as 35-points. The Lobos are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after leading by 24 or more at any points in their previous game. Take UTSA!
|12-10-16||Army +4.5 v. Navy||21-17||Win||100||6 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Army/Navy ATS No Brainer on Army +
Not only do I think Army can keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of snapping the losing streak. This is one of the more talented teams that Army has had in recent memory.
Getting to a bowl game is special, but it doesn’t compare to this game and beating Navy. The Black Knights are going to lay everything they have into this game.
While Navy isn’t going to throw in the towel here, this is a really tough spot for them. Playing in last week’s ACC Championship Game was a big accomplishment. However, I think it’s going to be a tough for them to bounce back emotionally from that loss.
Adding even more insult to injury, Navy lost starting quarterback Will Worth. He’s out for this game and the bowl matchup. Keep in mind Worth was filling in for injured starter Tago Smith. That will force the Midshipmen to turn to sophomore Zach Abey. He’s got some big shoes to fill, as Worth leads Navy with 1,198 rushing yards and 25 TD’s. No one else on the team has more than 500 yards.
Not getting the typical week to prepare for this game will make it difficult to get Abey ready. He’s not the only player on offense that Navy will be without. Running back Toneo Gulley is out of the season. On top of that, running backs Darryl Bonner and Dishan Romine are both questionable.
Simply put this is a banged up Midshipmen team in a really tough spot. Who is going up against an Army team that has had two full weeks to rest and prepare for this game.
The great thing is that because Navy has dominated this series and are ranked in the Top 25, they are laying more than they should be. It’s also worth pointing out Navy has struggled of late against great running teams. The Midshipmen are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. The Black Knights comes in 2nd in the country at rushing, averaging 328.7 ypg. Take Army!
|12-03-16||Virginia Tech +10.5 v. Clemson||Top||35-42||Win||100||29 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Conference Championship Game of the Year on Virginia Tech +
This is too many points for Clemson to be laying on a neutral field against a very talented Virginia Tech team that just laid it on in-state rival Virginia 52-10 in their regular season finale. While the Tigers are one of the more talented teams in the country, they are not as good as a year ago, when they ran the table before losing to Alabama in the Championship Game.
Clemson has also been far from dominant when facing a top level team. It started right out of the gate when they only won 19-13 at Auburn and then barely squeaked by Troy 30-24 at home. It continued with a 6-point win at home over Louisville, which was later followed by a 24-17 overtime win at home against NC State and 37-34 win at FSU. Keep in mind they should have lost that game to the Wolfpack, as NC State missed a 33-yard chip shot field goal as time expired in regulation. The close calls finally caught up to them in a 42-43 loss at home to Pittsburgh.
This Virginia Tech is certainly on the same level as a lot of those teams the Tigers struggled against. The fact that the Hokies are playing in the ACC Championship Game might surprise some, but not me. I thought Va Tech had one of the best hires in the offseason when they landed Justin Fuente away from Memphis. The best thing Fuente did was keep Bud Foster on as the defensive coordinator, allowing him to focus on getting the offense where it needed to be. He did just that. as Virginia Tech finished 38th in both scoring (34.3 ppg) and total offense (452.9 ypg).
Defensively they ranked 20th in scoring (21.1 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (332.2 ypg). The strength of the defense being their secondary, as they ranked 17th against the pass, allowing just 186.4 ypg. That's key here against the Tigers, who have the 4th ranked passing offense, compared to the 71st ranked rushing attack.
Not only are the Hokies capable of keeping this game close enough to cover, but I give them a realistic shot at pulling off the upset. Keep in mind the Hokies have a great track record against the spread when facing a dominant defense like Clemson. They are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 against teams who are allowing 17 or fewer points/game. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-03-16||Baylor +17.5 v. West Virginia||21-24||Win||100||25 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Afternoon ATS Shocker on Baylor +
I'm will aware of the Bears struggles coming into this game. Baylor closed out the season losing each of their final 5 games both SU and ATS. Not to mention the last 4 all came by at least 19 points. The key here is I don't think the Bears are as bad as they are playing and we are getting some great value on them in this spot. Keep in mind they were only a 19.5-point dog at Oklahoma a few weeks ago. They only lost that game by 21 and the Sooners rolled West Virginia at home 56-28.
Baylor has really been beating themselves more than anything of late, as they have 11 turnovers in their last 3 games (-8 turnover margin). Without the turnovers the offense has produced at a high-level. They had 504 total yards on 91 plays against Oklahoma, 368 on 79 plays against K-State and 634 on 100 plays against Texas Tech. This is still a dynamic offense that can move the ball against any team they go up against.
West Virginia comes into this one off a 49-19 win at Iowa State, which was a very misleading final. The Mountaineers defense was no where close to as good as it looks with them only giving up 19 points. ISU had 561 total yards of offense, but did themselves in by committing 4 turnovers. Keep in mind West Virginia only led 21-16 at the half in that game.
The records and rankings say the Mountaineers are the overwhelming better team in this one, but the numbers suggest they are a lot more even than you would think. West Virginia ranks 10th in total offense and 78th in total defense, while Baylor is 4th in total offense and just slight worse defensively at 85th.
I'm not expecting an outright win for the Bears, but it's not out of the question. West Virginia could very easily see how Baylor has been playing and overlook this game, as there's nothing really to gain for the Mountaineers, as they are going to finish 3rd in the standings regardless if they win or lose. Take Baylor!
|11-26-16||Western Kentucky -24 v. Marshall||60-6||Win||100||31 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Western Kentucky -
This might look like a big number for Western Kentucky to be laying on the road against Marshall, but I actually think the books have set the mark too low. This is not the same caliber of a Thundering Herd team as years past. Marshall is just 3-8 and one of those wins was against FCS foe Morgan State.
Marshall is only scoring 28.3 ppg, which is nowhere close to what you would expect from a Doc Holliday coached team. Keep in mind this is a team that averaged 40+ in 3 straight years from 2012-14. They have scored exactly 14 points in 3 of their last 4 games and that simply isn't going to cut against the Hilltoppers. WKU comes in averaging 42.5 ppg and have scored 44 or more points in 7 straight games, 4 times topping 50 points.
What really tells the story here is how these two teams have done against common opponents. They have played the same 5 teams this season. WKU is 5-0 in these games, winning by an average score of 49.8 to 19.6. Marshall is 2-3 and are losing on average by a score of 23.6 to 29.0. The Hilltoppers have the edge on both sides of the ball and are going to come out motivated here, as they have to win here to lock up 1st place in the C-USA East and secure a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. Take Western Kentucky!
|11-26-16||Navy -7 v. SMU||75-31||Win||100||27 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational ATS Annihilator on Navy -
The Midshipmen should have no problem winning on the road over SMU by more than a touchdown. Navy has been better than anyone anticipated this season, as most expected a setback after losing Keenan Reynolds and returning just 1 starter on offense. The Midshipmen haven't missed a beat, as they are 8-2 with wins over the likes of Houston, Memphis, Notre Dame and Tulsa. Last time out they absolutely crushed East Carolina 66-31.
Offensively this team is doing what they do best, run the football with success. Navy comes in 3rd in the nation with an average of 326.6 ypg on the ground. Keep in mind that's with totaling just 57 yards in a loss at Air Force. SMU has no shot at keeping this Midshipmen run game in check, as the Mustangs simply aren't built or had enough practice to defend the triple-option offense that Navy brings to the table. SMU ranks 78th against the run, giving up 184.5 ypg and have allowed 225+ rushing yards on 4 different occasions.
Navy's defense isn't anything special, but can get some stops and should win the turnover battle against a Mustangs offense that has 2 or more turnovers in 7 games (Navy has 2 turnovers in their last 6 games combined). The Midshipmen won 55-14 at home last year over SMU with a 403-144 edge on the ground. While I don't expect that big of a blowout with this game being played at SMU, I could easily see them winning here by 20+ points.
Midshipmen are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 against a team with a losing record, 25-10 ATS in their last 35 road games in weeks 10-13 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Navy!