|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-01-18||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10||Top||7-33||Win||100||414 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -
Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC.
Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little.
This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory.
The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick).
While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10!
|09-01-18||West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5||40-14||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee +
To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons.
It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright.
A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee!
|08-30-18||Northwestern +3 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||100||96 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Limit PLAY OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +
The only real concern here with Northwestern is the health of starting quarterback Clayton Thorson, who is listed as questionable to play. While I can't guarantee he will play, I would absolutely shocked if Thorson wasn't out their for the Wildcats first series. He's been practicing in full for quite some time and the reports out of fall camp that he looks even better than he did before the injury.
I just don't see anyway that Northwestern loses this game with him on the field. Purdue has just 4 starters back on defense and that stop unit was the main reason they went 7-5 last year. While I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think, they aren't going to be as good as last year's squad and will struggle against talented teams like the Wildcats.
On the flip side of this, Northwestern has 7 staters back from a defense that held Purdue to just 13 points last year. I could see the Boilmakers putting up a few more points, but not near enough to give them a chance to win this game.
It's also worth noting that the Wildcats come into this game having covered 8 of their last 9 conference games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten road games and have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with Purdue. Take Northwestern!
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||41-33||Loss||-109||52 h 44 m||Show|
4* Patriots/Eagles 'Super Bowl 52' VEGAS INSIDER on Patriots -
I just think the value here is with the Patriots against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52. I know each of the previous Super Bowl trips for Belichick and Brady have resulted in close games and last year's OT win over the Falcons (6-points) was their largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl, but I just think the circumstances here are different.
This will be the first time during this run that the Patriots have gone up against a backup quarterback the caliber of Nick Foles, who I don't think is very good. Sure, Foles played well at home in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings, but I think a lot of that had to do with Minnesota coming out flat off that miracle win the week before agains the Saints. Foles only guided the Eagles to 15-points in the previous game against the Falcons and I think we see their offense struggle to score against a Patriots defense that will be 100% prepared for what the Eagles like to do with 2-weeks to prepare. Take New England!
|01-14-18||Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers||Top||45-42||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars +
I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9.
Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season.
While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|01-13-18||Falcons -3 v. Eagles||10-15||Loss||-100||54 h 18 m||Show|
4* ATL/PHI Divisional Round NO BRAINER on Falcons -
My money is on the Falcons to go into Philadelphia and take care of business. I cashed on Atlanta last week when they went on the road and beat a very good Rams team as a 6-point dog. The Falcons didn't just sneak out a win, they dominated LA. I think we could see a similar type of lopsided affair here.
The Eagles might have the edge here in terms of rest, but I just don't think that makes up for the loss of Carson Wentz. Philadelphia continues to talk about how much the trust Nick Foles and how he's more comfortable in the offense. That doesn't change the fact that he's an average backup QB, replacing a legit MVP caliber player. We have seen just how different the offense looks since Wentz has went down and I don't think the bye week is going to help fix that.
The other big thing with Atlanta that gets overlooked is they played one of the toughest schedules in the league and on top of that had a huge target on their back from playing in the Super Bowl the year before. I think this is the team to beat in the NFC. You also have to factor in their edge in experience. This team knows what it takes to win this time of year and have proven they can do it. Take Atlanta!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia +5||Top||26-23||Win||100||146 h 31 m||Show|
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me.
Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good.
I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia!
|01-07-18||Panthers +7 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||50 h 5 m||Show|
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +
I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown.
Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg.
As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games.
It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina!
|01-06-18||Falcons +6 v. Rams||26-13||Win||100||30 h 30 m||Show|
4* ATL/LAR 'Wild Card' NO BRAINER on Falcons +
I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Rams. Atlanta didn't have the success in the regular season that most were expecting, but none of that matters now. What gets overlooked is just how hard it is for the team that lost the previous year's Super Bowl to simply get back in the postseason. This team can finally relax and I wouldn't be the least big surprised to see them win this game outright.
Not to take anything away from the Rams and what they were able to accomplish this season, but I have some big concerns with their ability to carry it over into the playoffs. One of the biggest advantages that the Falcons have in this matchup is experience. Simply put, I don't trust Goff to perform at the level needed for the Rams to win here via a blowout.
It's also worth noting that there's something about the NFC West that has brought out some of the best in the Falcons. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a team from this division and have won these contests by an average of 15.3 ppg. LA is also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Atlanta!
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||298 h 30 m||Show|
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -
I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game.
A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win.
There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama!
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||290 h 10 m||Show|
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +
I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team.
A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one.
Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida!
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -8||26-19||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -
I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh.
The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan!
|12-31-17||Panthers +4 v. Falcons||10-22||Loss||-110||105 h 31 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Carolina +
I like the value here with the Panthers catching over a field goal against the Falcons in Week 17. So much attention has been paid to the Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings in the NFC that the Panthers are somehow flying under the radar. Carolina got off to a bit of a slow start (just 4-3 in their first 7) as Cam Newton was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but this team has taken off since he's returned to 100% healthy. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, which includes a win over these Falcons and a win over the Vikings and Packers (Rodgers return game).
Atlanta needs to win this game to ensure a spot in the postseason, but you can't get caught up in teams in a "must-win" spot. Atlanta's offense got going in the middle portion of their schedule, but have really struggled here of late. The Falcons are only averaging 16.5 ppg over their last 4 games and now go up against one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina ranks 6th against the run (89.9 ypg) and are only giving up 208 ypg through the air on the road.
Panthers have thrived in the role of a road dog, as they are 77-54 ATS in their last 131 games when getting points away from home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Take Carolina!
|12-31-17||49ers v. Rams -1.5||34-13||Loss||-107||105 h 30 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rams -
I know the Rams aren't going to be playing a lot of their starters in this game, but I still like them to find a way to win at home against the 49ers. It's hard to believe that a team that started 0-9 is now the talk of the NFL, but with the play of Jimmy Garoppolo that's the case with San Francisco. I think it has the 49ers getting a little too much respect here in a division road game.
I'm not buying any talk of the Rams just laying down because there starters aren't playing. The guys that are playing are going to give it all they got. I also think the fact that LA isn't playing their starters take away some of the edge here for the 49ers, who were likely looking forward to using this game as a measuring stick going into next year. I think it could have San Francisco coming out flat and it will be hard for them to cover this spread if they don't take Los Angeles seriously.
49ers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game. San Francisco is also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams averaging 5.65 yards/play. Keep in mind that LA will still be running the same schemes offensively, even though the starters won't be playing much if at all. Take Los Angeles!
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||105 h 30 m||Show|
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +
I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts.
While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals.
Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright.
Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati!
|12-31-17||Bills v. Dolphins +3||22-16||Loss||-115||104 h 14 m||Show|
4* NFL Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +
The public is going to back Buffalo here for the simple fact that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and Miami is out of it. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The last thing any team wants to do is let one of their division rivals clinch a playoff spot by beating them, especially on their home field. Now I know the Bills need some other things to happen beside winning this game to get in, but I'm confident we are going to get a big time effort from the Dolphins in this spot. Keep in mind it was a 16-24 loss at Buffalo in Week 15 that put an end to Miami's playoff hopes.
Miami's defense played well in that game against the Bills a few weeks back, limiting them to just 328 yards. They were especially good at shutting down Buffalo's high-powered rushing attack, as the Bills had just 116 yards on 30 attempts.
The Dolphins have been a good bet at home against good teams, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Buffalo on the other hand is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami!
|12-31-17||Redskins v. Giants +3.5||10-18||Win||100||101 h 59 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Giants +
I like the value here with New York catching points at home against the Redskins in Week 17. The Giants come in off an embarrassing loss last week, where they were shutout by the Cardinals in a 24-0 defeat. I think we see a different NY team take the field in what will be their home finale. There's plenty of uncertainty with who is going to still be on the team next year and I think the players come together and do whatever it takes to get the win on Sunday.
I know the Giants are going to be down to the 3rd stringers at wide receiver, but this Redskins secondary has been atrocious on the road this season. Washington is giving up an average 259 yards/game and 7.9 yards/pass attempt away from home. They also give up 4.9 yards/carry and 150 yards/game on the ground. No surprise they have allowed 28.4 ppg on the road this season.
While the offense struggled in last week's game against Arizona, the defense played played really well. New York held the Cardinals to just 293 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. I think they can make things tuff here for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense. Note that Cousins has had trouble in his career against this Giants defense.
Lastly, I question how motivated Washington is really going to be for this game. It was clearly important to them to get a win in their home finale last week, but there's absolutely nothing to play for. A win over the Giants isn't going to do anything and they already beat this team once this season. I could see the players being more interested in getting this game over with and focusing on their New Year's plans. Take New York!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State -7||Top||7-24||Win||100||226 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention.
Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire.
For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State!
|12-28-17||Virginia v. Navy +1||7-49||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on Navy +
I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games.
The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite.
Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games.
This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy!
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||20-27||Win||100||32 h 10 m||Show|
4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.
At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa!
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State||Top||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 33 m||Show|
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion.
All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here.
The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|12-26-17||Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5||14-36||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke -
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest.
I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke!
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans +10||34-6||Loss||-115||126 h 57 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Texans MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Texans +
I think we are getting a great price here on the Texans at home in Monday's Christmas Day showdown against the Steelers. I know Houston played is coming off an ugly 7-45 loss at Jacksonville, but that wasn't a huge surprise given how limited the Texans are offensively and how good the Jaguars are defensively. I expect a much more motivated Houston team to take the field at home in a prime time game.
The biggest thing here isn't this is a horrible spot for the Steelers, who are coming off about as painful a loss as you can have in their 24-27 defeat at home to the Patriots, which likely cost them the No. 1 seed in the AFC. On top of that, they lost star wide out Antonio Brown to a calf injury. While they played well without him against New England, that's a massive loss. Brown was playing at an MVP level this season. At the same time, this Pittsburgh offense has a history of underperforming on the road (almost a TD less per game on the road compared to at home this season) and I think it could be in for a long day without Brown in this one.
Steelers are also just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, while the Texans are a solid 22-10 ATS in their last 32 when coming off back-to-back games where they scored 17 or fewer points. Take Houston!
|12-24-17||Giants +3.5 v. Cardinals||0-23||Loss||-115||40 h 29 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Giants +
I just think there's too much value here with New York in this one. I know it's been a miserable season for the Giants, but I liked how they came out and competed last week against the Eagles. Most importantly, the offense finally showed us something, scoring 29 points with over 500 yards of total offense against a very good Eagles defense. Eli Manning had his best game of the season by far, throwing for 434 yards and 3 scores.
Arizona simply has no business laying more than a field goal in this matchup. While the Cardinals will get back Drew Stanton at quarterback, it's just a minor upgrade over Blaine Gabbert in my opinion. Stanton takes over an offense that hasn't scored a TD in 10 quarters and I wouldn't be shocked if they failed to score one here against a Giants team that I think has some new life now that they have parted ways with McAdoo.
We also have a strong system in play backing the Giants. Road underdogs who are a bad team that's being outscored by 4+ points/game on the season are 227-149 (60%) ATS after a loss by 6-points or less since 1983. Take New York!
|12-24-17||Jaguars -4 v. 49ers||33-44||Loss||-110||102 h 33 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jags -
I like the value here with the Jaguars laying a short number on the road against the 49ers. Jacksonville has been one of the big surprises of the season, as they have already locked up their first playoff appearance in 10 years. They come into this game on an absolute roll, as they have won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall.
Early in the year this team was winning games just with their defense, but that's no longer the case. Blake Bortles has been playing at an MVP level over the last few weeks and the Jaguars have scored 30, 30 and 45 points over their last 3 games.
I think a big reason we are getting value here with the Jaguars is the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and it's all come after Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over the starting quarterback job. Garoppolo has put up some great numbers in his 3 starts, but it's come against the Bears, Texans and Titans.
The problem here with Garoppolo and the 49ers is that their offense has really relied on his ability to throw the ball and attacking this Jaguars defense through the air is not a recipe for success. Jacksonville's defense is the real deal and they have completely shutdown opposing passing attacks, as they lead the NFL, allowing just 168.9 ypg, which is 30 yards better than the next best team. I just don't think San Francisco will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. Take Jacksonville -4!
|12-24-17||Lions v. Bengals +5||17-26||Win||100||98 h 29 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bengals +
The last two games for Cincinnati have been a complete embarrassment to the players and franchise. They lost at home to the Bears 7-33 and then followed that up with a 7-34 loss at Minnesota. Couple of things to note about those two performances. The first is the game against Chicago was a major letdown spot after their crushing loss to the Steelers at home the week before, which all but eliminated them from playoff contention. Then last week prior to their game against the Vikings it was reported that head coach Marvin Lewis was going to resign and I don't think it sat well with players that they had to learn of the news via the media.
With all that behind them, I think we are going to see a much better effort from Cincinnati in what will be the final home game for Lewis. The players might not like him leaving, but he's done a lot to get this franchise back on the map and I think they will want his final home game to be one to remember.
Not only are we seeing Cincinnati undervalued because of their recent showings, but the books have certainly inflated this line on the Lions, as the public will look to back Detroit, given they are the only team with something to play for. Detroit might still be in the playoff hunt, but I'm just not sold on this team being a threat to make the playoffs in the NFC and it would be typical Lions fashion for them to lay an egg here on the road.
Keep in mind Detroit is a mere 9-25 ATS in their last 34 road games as a favorite of 7 points or less and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 road games when they come in having won 2 or more straight games. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 30+ points and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Cincinnati!
|12-24-17||Chargers v. Jets +7||Top||14-7||Push||0||98 h 29 m||Show|
5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets +
I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins.
At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game.
I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright.
Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York!
|12-24-17||Rams v. Titans +7||Top||27-23||Win||100||98 h 28 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +
I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game.
I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs.
The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee!
|12-24-17||Falcons +6 v. Saints||13-23||Loss||-105||37 h 5 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Falcons +
I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown against division rival New Orleans on Sunday. These two teams just played in Atlanta in Week 14, which the Falcons prevailed 20-17 despite Matt Ryan having one of his worst games with just 221 yards and 3 interceptions. I would expect a much better showing here from Ryan and wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta pulled off the upset.
Keep in mind that Atlanta was a 3-point favorite at home against the Saints, which based off that line means New Orleans should be a similar 3-point home favorite in this one. I think that just shows how overvalued the Saints are right now. It's also worth noting that in the last 11 meetings in the series, only once has New Orleans managed to beat the Falcons by more than 6 points and that was a mere 10-point win back in 2015. When these two teams square off, more times than not it's a closely contested game that comes down to a play or two in the 4th quarter.
Falcons did play on MNF last week, which for some teams is a negative, but they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when playing on Sunday after playing their previous game on a Monday. Falcons are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Atlanta!
|12-23-17||Colts v. Ravens -13.5||16-23||Loss||-110||78 h 58 m||Show|
4* Colts/Ravens NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Ravens -
You won't see me laying this many points often in the NFL, especially early on in the season. I think you have to handicap these big spreads a little differently this late in the season, as you have some teams like Baltimore with everything to play for and other teams like the Colts who have little to play for. You can't just blindly go against teams who are out of the playoffs, as some teams do keep fighting to the end. Indianapolis isn't one of those teams in my opinion.
This has been a lost season from the start for the Colts, who have had to play the entire year without star quarterback Andrew Luck. They come in having lost 5 straight and I just get the feeling that this team is ready for the season to be over.
It's also worth noting that the Ravens are not a team to overlook an opponent and the spot sets up well for them to not only win but win big. Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL and are allowing just 16.5 ppg at home this season. They should have no problem shutting down this Colts offense, which has now gone 5 straight games where they have scored 17 or fewer points. The other big key here is that while the Ravens are limited offensively, this is a defense they should be able to exploit, as Indy is giving up 29.9 ppg and 6.1 yards/play on the road this season. Take Baltimore!
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||42-35||Loss||-110||16 h 38 m||Show|
4* Armed Forces Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -
I like the value here with the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown against the Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday. I think this is a perfect matchup for San Diego State, as they are very familiar with how to stop the triple-option attack given they play Air Force in the MWC. The Aztecs have owned these one-dimensional offenses, posting a 13-2 record straight up and a 12-3 mark against the spread.
This year shouldn't be any different, as San Diego State is once again stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Aztecs ranked 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 110.4 ypg and only allowed 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, San Diego State is also a team that really likes to run the football, as they were 11th in rushing (252.3 ypg) compared to just 118th in passing (157.9 ypg). Big key here is they at least offer a threat of throwing, plus they will be facing an Army defense that was just 68th vs the run, allowing 166.1 ypg. Take San Diego State!
|12-21-17||Temple -7 v. Florida International||Top||28-3||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -
I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points.
Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7!
|12-16-17||Chargers v. Chiefs +1||13-30||Win||100||61 h 56 m||Show|
4* Chargers/Chiefs NFL ATS NO BRAINER on Chiefs +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Kansas City as an underdog at home to the Chargers. The stakes couldn't be much higher for this one. The winner takes complete control of the AFC West, while the loser would be sitting at 7-7 and needing to likely win out just to have a chance at making the playoffs as a Wild Card. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I simply don't think the Chiefs home field edge is getting enough respect here. This is one of the toughest places to play in general and Arrowhead can be electric in these types of games.
I also think it's huge that Kansas City is coming into this game off not just a win but an impressive win at home against the Raiders in what was also a huge game for this team. The Chiefs dominated their rivals from Oakland, taking a 26-0 lead into the 4th quarter. It could have been a lot worse, as KC missed some golden opportunities in the red zone and had to settle for field goals. They scored on 5 straight possessions to start the game if you ignore the drive right before the half where there was only a minute left and they ran out the clock. Keep in mind that was an equally big game for Oakland, as both teams were sitting at 6-6.
I think that's the kind of performance that could propel them back to the form that had them start out 5-0. You also can't ignore the success that KC has had against the Chargers team. They beat them by 14 in LA earlier this season and have won 7 straight overall. It's also worth noting the Chiefs haven't lost a home division game since Week 2 of the 2015 seasons. Take Kansas City!
|12-16-17||Oregon -7 v. Boise State||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||56 h 8 m||Show|
5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -
A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team.
Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach.
As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman.
On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down.
As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon!
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5||20-27||Win||100||47 h 30 m||Show|
4* Patriots/Dolphins MNF ATS NO BRAINER on Dolphins +
This is simply too many points to pass up with on the Dolphins at home against a division rival, even when that opponent is the Patriots. No surprise here that New England is being way overvalued by the books in this one. The Patriots come in having won 8 straight and have covered the spread in each of their last 6. Just two weeks ago they beat these same Dolphins 35-17 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite.
It all adds up to Miami getting way too points given the circumstances. The Dolphins will have Jay Cutler at quarterback, who missed the previous game. As for the Patriots, they have all kinds of guys banged up right now and arguably their biggest weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski is suspended. The Dolphins are going to play their hearts out here and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Note that Brady and the Pats have lost 3 of their last 4 trips to Hard Rock Stadium. Take Miami!
|12-10-17||Vikings v. Panthers +3||Top||24-31||Win||100||16 h 3 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers
I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7.
The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons.
Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina!
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +2||17-20||Win||100||28 h 26 m||Show|
4* Saints/Falcons TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons +
I really like the value here with Atlanta as a home dog against the Saints on Thursday Night Football. It does look like the books are adjusting to the bad line they put out and I would gladly back the Falcons at anything less than a field goal.
We are simply seeing a big overreaction here to last week, where Atlanta failed in a similar spot at home as a 3-point favorite against the Vikings. The Falcons lost 9-14 to Minnesota, despite the offense playing about as poorly as they have all season. Atlanta had to settle for 3 field goals and were a miserable 1-10 of 3rd down. I expect a big bounce back effort here from that Falcons offense. I know the Saints' defense has been playing much better, but we often see the defense for the road team struggle in these Thursday games, as they just don't have the time to prepare on the short rest.
While a lot of teams hate these Thursday night games, the Falcons have played some of their best football in these matchups, as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Thursday. The Falcons are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after scoring less than 15 points. Take Atlanta!
|12-03-17||Giants v. Raiders -7||Top||17-24||Push||0||103 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders -
I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys.
New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose.
Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland!
|12-02-17||Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State||14-17||Win||100||58 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Fresno +
I think the books are taking full advantage of the public's love for Boise State and thus have created some great value here on Fresno State. The Bulldogs beat the Broncos last week 28-17 as 7-point home dog, but most just throw that game away because both teams had nothing to gain, as each had already secured their division titles and knew they would be facing each other again this Saturday.
I also think people are slow to give this Fresno State any love because of how big bad they have been. The Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and weren't expected to be any good. The key for me is I don't think this a fluke at all. Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford went 82-57 in 11 seasons with the Golden Bears and is why this team is where it is. He's going to have a great game plan here and I love that he gets to beat into his players head all week that no one thinks they are any good.
You also have to give props to defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer, who has completely transformed the Bulldogs on that side of the ball. Fresno State finished the year 12th in the country, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 16th in total defense, giving up just 317 ypg. That's with returning just 6 starters from a defense that allowed 30.9 ppg and 415 ypg. They also went from allowing an average of 248 rushing yards/game to giving up just 117.3 ypg. I think they have more than offense here to win this one outright. Take Fresno State!
|12-02-17||Georgia +3 v. Auburn||Top||28-7||Win||100||54 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +
It wasn't pretty for the Bulldogs in the first meeting against the Tigers. Georgia went into Auburn sitting at 9-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, scoring on their first drive, but it was all downhill from there. Auburn led 16-7 at the half and pushed lead up to 40-10 midway through the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a great team, I just think they caught Georgia by surprise in that game earlier this season. I also think that was a Bulldogs team that was starting to get a little too cocky with how they were dominating teams. Georgia simply didn't have the same fire that Auburn did, who at that time was already in win or their season is over mode. I think we get a much different looking Bulldogs team here and I like their chances of winning this game outright.
Another thing here is I just think Auburn could be running on fumes here. They have been in do or die mode since losing to LSU back in the middle of December. The biggest of them all was last week against rival Alabama, which secured their spot in the SEC title game. This will be their 3rd game against a Top 10 team in their last 4 games, while Georgia hasn't been tested since that loss to Auburn. I think the Tigers will be out of gas. Take Georgia!
|12-02-17||TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma||17-41||Loss||-115||51 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU +
I know the Sooners cruised to a 38-20 win over TCU just a few weeks ago (Nov. 11th), but I think the Horned Frogs are going to put up a much better fight and could even win this game outright. In that first meeting the game was at Oklahoma, which has a huge home field edge. This game will be played at the home of the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
It was also a game where the Sooners struck early and had TCU reeling. Oklahoma was up 24-7 in the first 20 minutes of the game and had a 38-14 edge at the half. Some will say the Sooners called off the dogs in the second half, but I don't think that was the case. A 24-point lead against a good team in the Big 12 is not something to fill safe about in the 3rd quarter.
I believe Gary Patterson and his staff made some big adjustments and will be something they can carry over to this second meeting. Patterson is a great coach and brilliant defensive mind. I expect this TCU defense to make life miserable for Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense. At the same time, I think we see a better game plan here from the Horned Frogs offense and this Oklahoma defense isn't all that good. Take TCU!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -4||28-31||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
3* Pac-12 Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on USC -
I like the value here with USC laying less than a touchdown in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game against rival Stanford. The Trojans whooped up on the Cardinal early on in the regular-season, beating the Cardinal 58-34 and it was every bit a blowout as the final score would suggest. USC put up 623 yards while holding Stanford to just 342, as they outgained the Cardinal by a ridiculous 281 yards.
I think the perception here is that the Cardinal are a much better team, as they have closed out the season winning 8 of their last 9, including wins over No. 9 Washington and No. 8 Notre Dame in their last 3 games. I'm just not buying them being improved enough to be all that competitive with the Trojans. Like they did a year ago, USC has saved their best football for the end of the year and are clearly motivated to win the Pac-12 title. Take USC!
|11-27-17||Texans +7.5 v. Ravens||16-23||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
3* Texans/Ravens MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texans +
I like the value here with Houston catching over a touchdown against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Texans were finally able to get something positive going with Tom Savage at quarterback, as they rallied late to knock off the Cardinals 31-21 last week to snap a 3-game skid. I look for Houston to carry over that momentum here against a Ravens team that I think is getting way too much respect.
Baltimore is coming off a 23-0 shutout win on the road over the Packers. Their second shutout in their last 3 games and third of the season. No denying this is a great defensive team, but I'm willing to bet Houston is able to put points on the board. The big reason the Ravens shouldn't be laying more than a touchdown against a quality team like the Texans is they are far from a great offensive team. They can't run the football and aren't great at attacking teams deep, which makes them easy to defend. Houston's defense is missing some big names, but still a ton of talent on that side and I think they not only help the Texans keep this close enough to cover but potentially even win the game outright. Take Houston!
|11-26-17||Saints v. Rams -2.5||20-26||Win||100||90 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Rams -
New Orleans has won 8 straight and are 7-1 ATS during this 8-game winning streak. Needless to say the Saints have becoming a team the public loves to back and I think the books have finally started to adjust. I see big time value here with the Rams laying less than a field goal at home. Los Angeles struggled on the road at Minnesota last week, but so did the Saints when they played the Vikings on the road earlier this season, losing 19-29.
This is definitely a much improved Saints team from the past few years, but I'm still not quite convinced they are as good as everyone thinks. They should have lost at home last week to the Redskins, as Washington gave the game away in the final minutes. A lot of the wins for New Orleans have come against bad teams. LA is their biggest test since they opened the season with losses to the Vikings and Patriots. I just think the Rams balanced offense and defense will be too much to overcome on the road. Take LA!
|11-26-17||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||24-13||Loss||-110||8 h 40 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on 49ers +
I like the value here with San Francisco catching a touchdown at home against division rival Seattle on Sunday. The 49ers may be just 1-9, but could easily have a few more wins, as they had a 5-game stretch earlier this season where they lost all 5 games by 3-points or less. This team was finally able to close out a game last time out, defeating the Giants 31-21 for their first win of the season. That was a huge confidence boost going into their bye week and I think they come out and play one of their best games against the Seahawks.
As for Seattle, they have been decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball and I just don't think they deserve to be laying this many points on the road against any team right now outside of maybe the Browns. The Seahawks are down two of their elite players from their secondary with both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor on IR. They also have lost started defensive end Cliff Avril for the year and might not have linebacker Bobby Wagner (questionable). Offensively they don't have a lot of great options at running back with most of their top guys going down and they could be without starting left tackle Duane Brown.
Seattle is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. 49ers have saved their best football for their division opponents and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the NFC West. Take San Francisco!
|11-26-17||Bears +14 v. Eagles||Top||3-31||Loss||-110||101 h 53 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest.
The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down.
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago!
|11-26-17||Bucs +10 v. Falcons||20-34||Loss||-115||86 h 27 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Tampa Bay +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching double-digits against division rival Atlanta. The Bucs finally have some confidence to work with, as they have won two straight behind veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is filling in for the injured Jameis Winston. Given Winston's poor decision making that led to costly turnovers, I don't think it's as big a drop off as people think with Fitzpatrick starting.
As for Atlanta, they come in off a huge 34-31 road win over the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, which followed that impressive 27-7 win over Dallas the week before. With home games against two of the NFC's best in Minnesota and New Orleans on deck, this has the making of a flat spot for the Falcons. I look for Atlanta to struggle to pull away here and if they aren't careful, they might lose this game outright. Take Tampa Bay!
|11-26-17||Titans v. Colts +3.5||20-16||Loss||-110||5 h 36 m||Show|
4* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Colts +
I like the value here with the Colts catching points at home against division rival Tennessee. Indianapolis has gotten better with each week, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where Jacoby Brissett finally seems comfortable with the system the Colts run. Last time out they should have beat the Steelers at home, but let the game get away late and lost 17-20. They also had a 23-24 loss at the Bengals a few week back. Had those two gone their way, they would be riding a 3-game winning streak right now.
Tennessee is sitting at 6-4, but I'm just not sold on this team being a legit threat in the AFC. They had a chance to prove themselves in their last game and instead got embarrassed in a 17-40 loss at Pittsburgh. After that loss they are now just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home this season. Overall the Titans are just 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games and are a mere 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Indianapolis!
|11-26-17||Dolphins +17 v. Patriots||17-35||Loss||-105||5 h 36 m||Show|
3* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami +
This is simply too many points for even the Patriots to be laying against a division rival. I know the Dolphins have had some ugly losses this season, but I like their chances of keeping this one closer than expected. Jay Cutler isn't expected to play, but I don't see that as a huge loss and you could even argue the team has a better chance with backup Matt Moore, who looked good in relief last week.
I also think the Dolphins are catching the Patriots at the right time, as New England is coming off a two game road trip where they had to play both in high altitude. The first in Denver against the Broncos and then last week against the Raiders in Mexico City. On top of the Patriots potentially coming out a little flat here, they are also dealing with a number of injuries. They are down two starters on the offensive line with both center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon ruled out. They also might not have safety Patrick Chung and defensive tackle Malcom Brown. Take Miami!
|11-25-17||Idaho v. New Mexico State -8||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||65 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAAF Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State -
I like the value here with the Aggies laying single-digits at home against the Vandals. While Idaho is sitting at 3-7 and out of the bowl picture, New Mexico State is 4-6 and still can reach bowl eligibility with a win here and victory over Georgia State in their finale next week. The key here is the Aggies are a much better team than their 2-4 conference mark would suggest, as they could very easily be 6-0. All 4 losses have come by 6-points or less, including mere 3-point losses against Sun Belt powers Appalachian State and Troy.
Another key here is that Idaho just recently lost starting quarterback Matt Linehan. In the first game without him against Coastal Carolina last week, the Vandals managed just 7-points, 277 total yards and 14 first downs. That's just too big a loss for this team to overcome, as they aren't any good at running the ball. Idaho is 104th in the country, averaging just 130.7 ypg on the ground.
There is a chance New Mexico State could be without starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. I think he plays, but even if he doesn't the Aggies should be able to generate more than enough offense to win here by double-digits. Take New Mexico State!
|11-25-17||North Texas -10 v. Rice||30-14||Win||100||63 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -
This has been a breakout season for the Mean Green, who have already secured the C-USA West title and will play in next week's C-USA championship game. Typically this isn't a spot where I would take a team that really has nothing to play for, but I don't think the Mean Green are going to just lay down with a chance to reach double-digit wins this year. On top of that, North Texas could play their "C" game and still beat Rice by more than two touchdowns.
The Owls are 1-10 and have lost 9 straight since beating UTEP way back in Week 2 of the season. Keep in mind that UTEP is awful, as the Miners are 0-11 on the season. I just don't see Rice has enough talent to keep this close even if they were to treat this like their bowl game. I look for North Texas to try and get as big a lead as possible early on and coast to a comfortable win on Saturday.
Road favorites who have a winning record and have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 are 95-49 (66%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last 10 seasons. Take North Texas!
|11-25-17||East Carolina +28.5 v. Memphis||13-70||Loss||-105||76 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SHOCKER on East Carolina +
I like the value here with the Pirates catching a huge number against the Tigers on Saturday. Memphis has already locked up a spot in the AAC title game, as they will take on the winner of the UCF/USF game on Friday next week. I just don't see the Tigers having any interest in running up the score here on East Carolina. I look for them to be extra cautious with their starters and to keep the game plan as vanilla as possible. The only priority here is to get a win without getting anyone hurt and not exposing any more of the playbook than they need to.
As for East Carolina, I look for them to treat this as their bowl game, as no matter the outcome their season comes to an end when this one is over. The Pirates showed they aren't going to just lay down, as they just defeated Cincinnati 48-20 at home. The big key here is the Pirates have an offense that can put points on the board, so even if things get ugly early, the backdoor will be wide open for them in the 2nd half.
It's also worth noting that last time out the Tigers put up 66 points in their win over SMU. Any time Memphis has come off a big offensive outburst like that, they have been a great fade, as the Tigers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 50 or more points. They are also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Take East Carolina!
|11-25-17||Georgia v. Georgia Tech +11||38-7||Loss||-104||3 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Georgia Tech +
I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a big home dog against in-state rival Georgia. There's nothing more that Georgia Tech would rather do than play a part in potentially keeping the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. I think they have what it takes to not only keep it close, but pull off the upset. The Yellow Jackets triple-option will be tough for even this great Georgia defense to stop and most importantly I think Georgia Tech has the talent on defense to slow down that high-powered Bulldogs rushing attack. Don't be worried about the Yellow Jackets ugly loss to Duke, as they were looking ahead to this game and are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a loss by 21 or more points. Take Georgia Tech +11!
|11-24-17||Missouri v. Arkansas +11||Top||48-45||Win||100||55 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a double-digit dog at home against the Tigers. Missouri has caught fire here in the 2nd half of the season and have won 5 straight and covered their last 7. I think they are way overvalued here because of it. While the wins have come by large margins they have also come against bad teams.
Arkansas has had a down year, but there's still a lot of fight in this team and they showed it last week in their near upset at home over Mississippi State. They are going to want to go out with a fight on senior day and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won outright. Razorbacks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home when they come in having failed 2 of their last 3, 15-6 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.
It's also worth noting that the home team has dominated in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Arkansas!
|11-24-17||Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh +14||14-24||Win||100||52 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pitt +
I like the value here with the Panthers as a two touchdown dog at home against the Hurricanes. Miami came out flat last week at home against Virginia and failed to cover. No question the Hurricanes are the better team, but the pressure is really starting to build on this team and they could have a hard time not looking ahead to the ACC title game next week against Clemson.
Pitt on the other hand has nothing to lose and with no shot at getting to bowl eligibility, they are going to treat this like their bowl game. They would enjoy nothing more than ruining the Canes perfect season. Even though the Panthers have lost their last two, they were right there in both.
Another big key here is I think this is a good matchup for Pitt's defense, as their strength has been stopping the run. The Panthers rank 49th in the country, allowing just 151.3 ypg. On top of that, we should see one of their best efforts defensively here at home against a ranked opponent. I don't think Pitt pulls of the upset, but it's not out of the question. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-23-17||Giants +7.5 v. Redskins||10-20||Loss||-105||37 h 35 m||Show|
4* NFL Giants/Redskins VEGAS INSIDER on Giants +
I think we are getting some great value here with the Giants catching over a touchdown against Washington in this NFC East showdown on Thanksgiving night. New York finally had that kind of response we have been waiting to see, as they looked like a different team in last week's 12-9 upset win as a huge dog at home against the Chiefs. I see no reason why the Giants won't bring that same intensity here on the road against a division rival.
As for Washington, they come in off a devastating loss at New Orleans, where they managed to blow a 31-16 lead in the final 5 minutes and ended up losing 31-34 in overtime. That loss not only feels like the final straw in the Redskins playoff hopes, but once again this team is dealing with all kinds of injuries.
Most notably on the offensive line, where Washington will have guys that have barely been on their team for more than month starting at left guard and center. Not to mention left tackle Trent Williams is playing on one leg. They also have numerous injuries along the defensive front 7 and even a horrible Giants offense should be able to muster together some scoring drives.
The key here is that even with the Redskins in a horrible spot and likely without several key players, no one wants anything to do with this Giants team right now and as a result we have an inflated line on Washington in a prime time game. Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a division opponent. Take New York!
|11-23-17||Vikings v. Lions +3||Top||30-23||Loss||-105||29 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving.
Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored.
As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg.
Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit!
|11-20-17||Falcons v. Seahawks -2.5||34-31||Loss||-110||119 h 45 m||Show|
4* Falcons/Seahawks MNF ATS NO BRAINER on Seattle -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Seahawks as a slim home favorite against the Falcons. Atlanta comes in off a 27-7 blowout win at home over the Cowboys and I think a lot of people see that performance and think this team is back to where they were a season ago. I'm not one of them. I'm not saying they won't be a good team the rest of the way, but it's asking a lot for a team to win in Seattle in a big game.
The Seahawks knocked off Arizona 22-16 on Thursday Night Football last week, but it was't that close, as Arizona scared a garbage touchdown with 20 seconds left. Seattle did lose star cornerback Richard Sherman, which is a big blow, but I think this team has enough talent at the position to make due. They also are expected to get back star safety Earl Thomas, who forms the best safety due in the league with Cam Chancellor.
While Atlanta held Dallas to 7-points, that was a direct result of the Cowboys playing their first game without Ezekiel Elliott, who is their most important offensive weapon. Prior to that the Falcons had given up 20 or in 7 straight and this Seahawks offense comes in averaging 28.2 ppg at home. Take Seattle!
|11-19-17||Patriots v. Raiders +7||33-8||Loss||-105||113 h 24 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Raiders +
I think we are getting some good value here with Oakland catching a touchdown in this neutral side game against the Patriots that will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The Raiders are coming off of their bye week and this feels like a must-win for them sitting at 4-5. I expect a big time effort here from Oakland and like their chances of keeping this within the number.
New England is coming off a 41-16 blowout win over the Broncos in primetime and have now won 5 straight. The way they dismantled Denver on the road has everyone back on the Patriots bandwagon as the best team in the NFL. They just might be, but this is a big number to be laying away from home against a good team and I think we could see Oakland cause some major problems for a Patriots defense that I think is still a bottom-tier unit.
Raiders have been a good bet with an extra week to prepare, as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye. We also have a great system in play backing the dog, as Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 27-9 (75%) ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 over the last 10 seasons. Take Oakland!
|11-19-17||Lions v. Bears +3||27-24||Push||0||110 h 60 m||Show|
4* NFL Public ATS SHOCKER on Bears +
Chicago laid an egg last week at home against the Packers in a game a lot of people expected the Bears to win given how bad Green Bay had played without Aaron Rodgers. Now no one wants anything to do with Chicago at home against the Lions, but I think we are getting some value here with the home division dog. I just think this team is better suited to play as a dog than a favorite and the results back it up, as they are a perfect 4-0 at home as a dog this year with outright wins over both the Steelers and Panthers.
Detroit comes in having won 2 straight. The most recent being a 38-24 win over the Browns at home, but I just haven't been all that impressed with this team. Keep in mind that 14-point win over Cleveland is very misleading, as the Browns actually had a 413-345 edge in total yards and 26-16 advantage in first downs. Not to mention they had a 27-17 lead with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record. Detroit on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Chicago!
|11-19-17||Rams v. Vikings -2||Top||7-24||Win||100||110 h 59 m||Show|
5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team.
While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense.
Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota!
|11-19-17||Chiefs v. Giants +11||9-12||Win||100||95 h 12 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Giants +
After losing 21-31 to the 49ers and handing San Francisco their first win of the season the perception couldn't be any worse for the Giants, who have now lost 3 straight by double-digits. Most just assume this team has thrown in the towel and aren't going to show up against the Chiefs. At the same time, everyone is going to be on KC coming off a bye. I just feel it's resulted in a drastically inflated line here and I'll take my chances with the Giants doing enough to keep this within the number.
One of the big reasons that I think New York can keep this closer than expected is the Chiefs simply aren't a good defensive team, especially on the road where they are giving up 26 ppg and 395 ypg. The loss of Eric Berry is a big reason why they aren't playing at the same level as years past, as well as their inability to pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis. I look for Eli Manning to have one of his better games here and for the offense to keep them i the game.
Giants are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half in two straight games and that plays right into a great system, as underdogs who have allowed 17 or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 65-31 (68%) against when facing a team that's coming off a loss by 10 or more. Take New York!
|11-19-17||Redskins +8 v. Saints||31-34||Win||100||87 h 17 m||Show|
4* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins +
I like the value here with Washington catching over a touchdown against the Saints. New Orleans comes in having won 7 straight and are now 7-2 after their 0-2 start. The most recent being an absolute beating of the Bills on the road, which saw them win by a final of 47-10. I think the public is finally on board with this team as a legit contender and the books are on top of it, inflating this line to take advantage of all the action that will come in on New Orleans.
Keep in mind the Saints were a 7.5-point home favorite against the Bears just a few weeks back and while the Redskins aren't a top tier team, they are in a lot better shape than Chicago. They held their own last week in a 30-38 loss to a very good Vikings team and the week before went on the road and won in Seattle, which doesn't happen often this time of year. I'm not saying they win this game, but I think the Saints might come in a little compliant here and potentially looking ahead to brutal 3-game stretch that has them going at LA, hosting the Panthers and then going to Atlanta.
I believe Washington has enough here defensively to keep the Saints from going off and more than enough fire-power to keep it close. The Redskins are also a solid 9-4 ATS in their last 13 off a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Washington!
|11-19-17||Cardinals v. Texans||21-31||Win||100||87 h 16 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Texans
The perception has quickly changed on Houston. Just a few weeks ago the Texans were a legit playoff contender with rookie Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Then came his season-ending injury and back to Tom Savage under center. The offense went from scoring 33 or more points in 5 straight games under Watson's control to totaling just two over the last two behind Savage. Last week they got rolled at LA 33-7 by the Rams and now no wants anything to do with this team.
Yes, the offense is limited with Savage, but I just don't think this team is going to give on their season. I look for a big time effort here at home against the Cardinals and unlike the Rams, who are one of the best teams in the NFL, Arizona is in just as bad a shape. The Cardinals lost their best player in RB David Johnson early and then came a season-ending injury to starting QB Carson Palmer. Now backup Drew Stanton is out and it's third stringer Blaine Gabbert who will start. I believe there's more than enough talent here with Houston's defense to keep Arizona's offense in check and I'll take my chances on the offense providing just enough for the win. Take Houston!
|11-18-17||Utah v. Washington -17||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||64 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington -
I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home.
Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State.
Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington!
|11-18-17||California +16 v. Stanford||14-17||Win||100||71 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching over two touchdowns in Saturday's rivalry game against Stanford, which is known as the "Big Game." You can never count out the dog in these rivalry games, as this isn't just another game. For Cal it's their biggest game of the season to date. It can be a lot harder for the favorite to bring the same intensity, especially when it's a big spread like this. Making it even harder on the Cardinal is the fact that they are coming off an emotional upset win at home over Washington and have a huge game on deck against Notre Dame.
It's no secret that the key to beating Stanford starts with limiting star running back Bryce Love. I'm not saying Cal will shut him down, but head coach Justin Fuente is a defensive guy and I think his ability to game plan and the all-out effort we are going to get from the Bears, will allow them to keep him from having one of those video game type of games. If they can do that, they will be in good shape, as this is not your typical lock down Cardinal defense.
Note that Stanford is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game in which they covered the spread. Take Cal!
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21||16-39||Win||100||69 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS Vegas INSIDER on Boston’s College -
I like the value here with the Eagles even as a big favorite in Saturday's prime time matchup against the Huskies at Fenway Park. Boston College comes in off a hard fought 14-17 loss at home to NC State. Prior to that defeat the Eagles had been rolling, racking off 3 straight wins, including blowout wins at Virginia (41-10) and at home against Florida State (35-3). I look for BC to return right back to form here and lay a beating on UConn.
The Huskies are coming off a 25-point loss at UCF and the week before fell 20-37 at home to USF. Those are the two best teams in the AAC and clearly this team came to play, as they covered the spread easily in both. I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy here against the Eagles.
More than anything, I don't think UConn will have an answer for BC's star freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who just put up 196 yards against a great NC State defensive line. At the same time, the Huskies offense is built around their passing game and this Eagles defense is not one you want to have to attack through the air, especially without a threat of a running game. They are 23rd in the country, giving up just 187.1 passing yards/game. Opposing QB's are completing just 50.2% of their attempts against them, which is outstanding. In comparison, the Huskies are have allowed opposing teams to complete 67.9% of their attempts. Take Boston College!
|11-18-17||Georgia Tech -6 v. Duke||Top||20-43||Loss||-110||74 h 22 m||Show|
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -
The Yellow Jackets have been a money making machine in 2017. With last week's 28-22 win at home over Georgia Tech as a 3-point dog they are now 7-1 ATS on the season. I think they keep it rolling here with a convincing road win over a struggling Duke team. After starting out the season 4-0 with an emphatic 41-17 win over Northwestern at home, the Blue Devils have lost 6 straight and the most recent was an ugly 16-21 loss at Army, where David Cutcliffe and his staff had two weeks to prepare for the Black Knights.
The extra week didn't exactly help them against the triple-option as Army put up 226 yards on the ground. Now they face an even better triple-option attack led by Georgia Tech's TaQuon Marshall and KirVonte Benson, who have combined to rush for 1,864 yards and 22 touchdowns.
The other thing here is the Blue Devils just aren't clicking offensively right now. Duke has scored more than 20 points just once in their last 6 games and that was a mere 21 against Virginia. They are averaging a whopping 14.0 ppg and 308.2 ypg in conference play. Georgia Tech in comparison is averaging 29.1 ppg and 392.3 ypg in ACC action. I just don't think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep this within a touchdown. Take Georgia Tech!
*Play was upgraded from a 3* to a 5*
|11-18-17||Minnesota v. Northwestern -7||0-39||Win||100||70 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS NO BRAINER on Northwestern -
I like the value here with the Wildcats laying just a touchdown at home against the Gophers on what will be senior day in Northwestern's final home game of the season. The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, as they have won 5 straight, including a 23-13 win over Purdue this past weekend as a similar 6.5-point favorite. Their only losses in conference play are against two of the elite teams in the Big 10 in Wisconsin and Penn State.
Minnesota comes in off an impressive 54-21 win at home against Nebraska, but I think that was more of the Cornhuskers throwing in the towel on their season than anything. The Gophers are still just 2-5 in Big 10 play and their other 4 wins have come against the likes of Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. Note they only beat a horrible Illini team by 7 at home and also had an ugly home loss to Maryland.
Not only do I think Minnesota isn't that good, this is a horrible matchup for the one dimensional Gophers offense. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to their ability to pick up yards in the passing game. They rank 119th out of 130 teams with just 143 ypg through the air. Even in their 52-point outburst against Nebraska they only had 105 yards passing. They are going to play right into the strength of Northwestern's defense, which ranks 7th in the country, giving up just 109.6 ypg against the run. Not only will it make it tough to score, but if they get behind this could get ugly. Take Northwestern!
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State -3 v. Western Kentucky||38-41||Loss||-105||47 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Friday ATS BLOWOUT on Middle Tennessee -
I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a short road favorite against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky hasn't been anywhere close to the C-USA power this season and it's not a huge surprise, as they only brought back 10 starters and lost a great head coach in Jeff Brohm. The Hilltoppers are lucky to be 5-5 and come in having lost 3 straight.
It hasn't been a great season for Middle Tennessee either, but the Blue Raiders struggles can be pinpointed to the absence of starting quarterback Brent Stockstill for 6 games. In his two games back from injury he's thrown for 445 yards with 6 touchdowns (3 in each game). He's going to make life miserable for a WKU defense that has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games.
The other thing here is the Blue Raiders have an underrated defense. Most would be surprised to see that Middle Tennessee ranks 26th in the country, giving up just 334 ypg, ranking inside the Top 40 against both the run and the pass. That secondary that's allowing just 193.9 ypg is key in this matchup, as the Hilltoppers are a one-dimensional passing offense. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-16-17||Titans +7 v. Steelers||17-40||Loss||-110||61 h 15 m||Show|
4* Titans/Steelers TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Titans +
I like the value here with the Titans catching a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Steelers. Tennessee is a team that is sitting at 6-3 on the season, but are getting zero respect. No one is talking about this team, despite the fact that they come in having won 4 straight.
Pittsburgh has also won 4 straight, but it hasn't been pretty the last two games. They were lucky to leave Detroit with a 20-15 win and even more fortunate last week to walk away from Indy with a 20-17 victory, as they trailed 3-17. I know the Titans had to score late to get a 24-20 win at home against the Bengals, but they should have never let it get to that point, as they had a 108 edge in total yards and 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. I just feel Pittsburgh is going through the motions right now and that's a recipe for disaster in these Thursday games.
It's also worth noting that the Titans come in off 2 straight home wins and that put them in a very profitable spot, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight home wins. Pittsburgh is also a team that has history of not covering this time of year, as they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in November. Take Tennessee!
|11-15-17||Western Michigan +10 v. Northern Illinois||31-35||Win||100||45 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Michigan +
I like the value here with the Broncos catching more than a touchdown against the Huskies. Western Michigan might not be on the same level as a year ago, but they are still a very respectable 4-2 in MAC play and could very easily be 6-0. They had a fluke 13-14 loss against Akron, where they outgained the Zips by more than 200 yards. In their other loss they had a 28-14 lead going into the 4th quarter of a 28-35 loss. Even with those setbacks, the MAC West title is still within reach if they can knock off Northern Illinois and Toledo in their last two games.
The Huskies are a good team, but aren't built to blow quality teams like the Broncos out. Northern Illinois is built more to win close games with their strong rushing attack and great defense. The key here is the Western Michigan defense should be able to keep that Huskies rushing attack in check. The Broncos are allowing just 119.3 rushing yards/game in conference play
Northern Illinois is also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games. Take Western Michigan!
|11-14-17||Central Michigan v. Kent State +18||42-23||Loss||-110||21 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tues Night VEGAS INSIDER on Kent State
The public will be inclined to lay the big number on the road with Central Michigan here against a Kent State team that is just 2-8, but I think the value is with the Golden Flashes as a big home dog. It might not seem like Kent State has anything to play for, but this is senior night, so I expect a big effort here.
As for the Chippewas, they come in off a 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan, which secured bowl eligibility, which is always a big deal for these schools from smaller conferences. I think we see Central Michigan come out a bit flat here. The offense is built around their passing attack, which plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, as the Flashes rank 35th in the country vs the pass, allowing just 197.4 ypg. At the same time, I don't the Chippewas are good enough defensively to keep Kent State from scoring enough to cover this big number.
Central Michigan has also struggled in this spot in the past, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and are also a mere 1-5 ATS mark in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Kent State!
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +7.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-105||95 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos +
I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots.
There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright.
The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver!
|11-12-17||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||7-27||Win||100||58 h 29 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons -
I like the value here with Atlanta laying only a field goal at home against the Cowboys, who won't have star running back Ezekiel Elliott, as he finally has to start serving his suspension. I just don't think the line has been adjusted enough here to make up for his absence. The perception is that Dallas can just plug anyone in at running back and put up big yards on the ground, but we saw in 2015 when they let DeMarco Murray leave the production wasn't the same and didn't pick back up until Zeke arrived.
I think a drop off in the running game is going to have a negative impact not only on the offense, which will face a lot more 3rd and long situations, but also the defense. One of the reasons Dallas defense has played so well is the offense could eat up the clock and keep them fresh. That's bad news for the Cowboys defense, as they go up against an Atlanta offense that isn't as bad as everyone is saying and due for a breakout performance.
Dallas comes in having covered 3 straight, but are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4 games. Take Atlanta!
|11-12-17||Texans +12 v. Rams||7-33||Loss||-110||74 h 37 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Texans +
I like the value here with the Texans catching double-digits against the Rams. LA is the talk of the NFL right now after their 6-2 start and have quickly become a big public team. That combined with no one wanting to back Houston with Tom Savage at quarterback, has this line inflated. It's a lot harder to win by 10+ in the NFL than people think.
A big reason I like the points here with the Texans is I believe their defense can make life difficult for the Rams offense. Two things LA has done very well early on is pick up a ton of yards after the catch and convert on 3rd down. Houston is near the top of the league in both of those categories defensively. We saw Seattle's stop unit hold the Rams to just 10 points and I think we could see the Texans keep them at least under 20 and I'll take my chances that Savage and the offense can do enough to keep it within the number.
It's also worth noting that playing at home hasn't exactly been an advantage for the Rams, especially when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. LA is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Take Houston!
|11-12-17||Saints v. Bills +3||47-10||Loss||-110||70 h 23 m||Show|
3* NFL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Bills +
The public is going to be all over the Saints as a short road favorite, but I like the value here with the Bills catching a field goal at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 on the season. Buffalo laid an egg in their last game, losing badly on the road to the Jets on Thursday Night Football. That loss is magnified because it was a prime time game. The road team is at such a huge disadvantage in those Thursday games that I don't think that we should judge this team on that performance. Keep in mind they had gone 4-1 in their previous 5 games.
Not to take anything away from the Saints and their 6-game winning streak, but they haven't exactly played a lot of great teams, especially on offense, during this stretch. I think the offense struggles here on the road, as they should have a hard time running against a stout Bill's front seven and I think we see that defense everyone is praising have some troubles against the strong rushing attack and mobility of quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Saints are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when they come into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. We also find a strong system going against New Orleans, as favorites that are scoring 27+ ppg are just 7-27 ATS (21%) against the spread after allowing 14 or less points in each of their last 2 games over the last 10 years. Take Buffalo!
|11-12-17||Vikings -1.5 v. Redskins||38-30||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings -
I like the value here with Minnesota laying a short number against the Redskins on Sunday. Washington is coming off an impressive 17-14 win at Seattle, but were very fortunate to get the victory, as they needed a last second touchdown for the win and benefited from the Seahawks missing 3 field goals. I believe it has the Redskins getting a little too much respect here, even as a short home dog, as they are just decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball.
At the same time, this Vikings team is one of the best in the NFL and come in having won 4 straight and are also off a bye, which is a huge advantage this late in the season. Washington has failed to score 20 points in each of their last 2 games and I don't see them breaking that streak here against one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has had two weeks to game plan for them.
Vikings have covered 3 straight and that's a good thing, as they are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when they have covered 2 or more games in a row. Washington is just 3-12-3 ATS in their last 18 after totaling less than 250 total yards in their previous game and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Minnesota!
|11-11-17||Oregon State +22 v. Arizona||28-49||Win||100||56 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +
I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games.
There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game.
Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State!
|11-11-17||Alabama v. Mississippi State +14||31-24||Win||100||37 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State +
This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric.
I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively.
Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State!
|11-11-17||San Jose State v. Nevada -18||14-59||Win||100||64 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada -
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is.
San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points.
Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada!
|11-11-17||Michigan v. Maryland +17||35-10||Loss||-110||67 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland +
I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home.
Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0.
Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||64 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +
It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU.
This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn!
|11-11-17||Virginia v. Louisville -11||21-38||Win||100||49 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville -
It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores.
I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games.
Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville!
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State -16||3-48||Win||100||45 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State -
The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout.
There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for.
Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around.
Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State!
|11-11-17||Rutgers +31 v. Penn State||Top||6-35||Win||100||63 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +
I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights.
While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible.
I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers!
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||60 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College +
The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia.
A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games.
Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College!
|11-11-17||Indiana -7.5 v. Illinois||24-14||Win||100||60 h 48 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -
I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits.
Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds.
The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana!
|11-10-17||BYU +3.5 v. UNLV||31-21||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|11-09-17||Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5||22-16||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* Seahawks/Cardinals TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals +
I like the value here with Arizona catching almost a touchdown at home against the Seahawks, as I feel the Cardinals have a great shot of winning this game outright. We can certainly expect a big time effort here from the home team, as this feels like a must-win game given how strong the NFC is as a whole and they are looking up at both Seattle and Los Angeles in their own division.
The Seahawks are a big time public team and the oddsmakers have certainly inflated this line with it being a prime time game. While Seattle is 4-1 in their last 5, they just aren't playing all that great of football. The running game has been nonexistent and the offensive line is just as bad when it comes to pass protection. I think this Arizona defense will make life miserable for Russell Wilson and do enough here offensively to secure the cover.
Let's also not overlook the fact that these home teams have a HUGE advantage in these Thursday games, which only adds more value here with this line. Seattle scored just 14 points in their ugly home loss to the Redskins on Sunday and are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to score at least 15 points. Seahawks are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Arizona!
|11-08-17||Kent State +22 v. Western Michigan||20-48||Loss||-110||17 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now.
The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread.
It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State!
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5||14-24||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami -
I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg.
While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)!
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5||28-38||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team.
The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home.
Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo!
|11-05-17||Raiders v. Dolphins +3||27-24||Push||0||16 h 8 m||Show|
4* Raiders/Dolphins SNF BEST BET on Dolphins +
I like the value here with Miami catching a field goal at home against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The public is going to be all over Oakland, even with the Raiders off an ugly 14-34 loss at Buffalo last week, as they won't be able to get over the 0-40 loss the Dolphins suffered in their last contest, as it was a prime time game.
That loss for Miami came with backup QB Matt Moore under center and it didn't help matters the Dolphins were playing on the road in a short week, as the home teams have such a huge advantage in those Thursday Night games. I expect a big bounce back effort here from Miami at home and keep in mind they now have the scheduling advantage with 3 extra days to prepare and rest up for this contest.
I also don't think the Raiders are as good as people think. They had that one big game against KC at home a coupe weeks ago, but that was one of those Thursday night home games where they had a big edge and they were lucky to win. Oakland is just 1-3 on the road this season and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall. Take Miami!
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys -1||17-28||Win||100||56 h 48 m||Show|
3* NFL ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cowboys -
I like the value with Dallas at basically a pick'em at home against the Chiefs on Sunday, especially with the recent news that Ezekiel Elliot will be playing. Kansas City has become one of the public's favorite teams to back and they come in off a convincing win over the Broncos in a prime time game on Monday Night Football.
While the Chiefs defense was able to slow down Denver's anemic offense, they have been struggling on that side of the ball. One area that really concerns me with KC and their defense is their ability to stop the Cowboys rushing attack. The Chiefs are 28th in the league against the run, giving up 131.1 ypg. Note they aren't any better against the pass, ranking 29th, allowing 261.1 ypg. I look for Dallas to take full advantage of the Chiefs weakness against the run and dominate the time of possession here and secure the win.
Cowboys are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when they come into a contest of 2 straight road wins. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 30 or more points and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they covered the spread! Take Dallas!
|11-05-17||Redskins +7.5 v. Seahawks||17-14||Win||100||141 h 40 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins +
I know Washington is dealing with some injuries and are off an ugly 19-33 loss at home to the Cowboys, but I think it's created some great value and I'll take my chances with the Redskins at this pice. That game against Dallas was also a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Washington was within a touchdown late in the 4th quarter before Dallas added a garbage TD with less than 30 seconds to play.
The Seahawks have won 4 straight, but needed everything they had to escape with a 41-38 win at home over the Texans last week. They also had a very fortunate 16-10 win over the Rams during this stretch. LA fumbled a TD out of the end zone and had 5 turnovers on the game. I still have concerns with the offensive line and the defense will be without one of their most important pieces in safety Earl Thomas. Keep in mind they weren't the same on that side of the ball last year when he went on IR. I think Cousins and the Redskins offense can do enough here to keep this within the number. Take Washington!
|11-05-17||Bengals +5.5 v. Jaguars||7-23||Loss||-110||137 h 28 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bengals +
I think we are getting some great value here with Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a sluggish game at home against the Colts, where they squeaked out a 24-23 win. A lot of peopler were on Cincinnati as an 11-point favorite and the week before they lost by 15 as a 4-point dog at Pittsburgh. That combined with the Jaguars coming off a win and their bye week has this line a little too inflated in my opinion.
Jaguars have impressed with their 4-3 start, but have also been very inconsistent, as they have not won back-to-back all season. A big reason I think the Bengals can keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright is their defense. Cincinnati is 5th in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 295 ypg and are giving up only 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville's strong start is more to do with their defense than their offense and they have yet to win a game this season when they have failed to score more than 20 points.
Bengals are a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, while the Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after holding their previous opponent to 14 or less points. Take Cincinnati!
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||10-30||Loss||-105||77 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching a touchdown against division rival New Orleans. It's been a miserable start for the Bucs, who had such high expectations coming into the season, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Tampa just yet and expect one of their better efforts of the season in this one.
We are also getting a big number here as the books have no choice but to inflate this number on the Saints with them coming in having won and covered in 5 straight games. It's been a good situation to fade New Orleans in the past, as they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Bucs are also a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 5 or 6 out of their last 7.
We also find a great system in play backing the Bucs, as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 121-73 (62%) against the spread in the month of November dating back to 1983. Take Tampa Bay!
|11-05-17||Ravens v. Titans -3||20-23||Push||0||63 h 34 m||Show|
4* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans -
I like the value here with Tennessee laying a short number at home against the Ravens. Last time Baltimore took the field they laid a 40-0 beating on the Dolphins, but Miami's offense was without starting their starting QB and already one of the worst offensive units in the league. That was also a home game on Thursday, where the home team has a massive advantage on short rest.
Prior to that the Ravens were just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Raiders without Carr. The losses during this stretch weren't good and I just don't see them being able to hang with the Titans, who return from their bye playing with a ton of confidence after winning each of their last two.
Baltimore is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home win by 21+ points and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Titans have also had a great home field edge of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Tennessee!
|11-04-17||Oregon +21 v. Washington||3-38||Loss||-110||85 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +
I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window.
Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured.
Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon!