|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-12-19||Braves v. Phillies +120||Top||5-9||Win||120||12 h 6 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Phillies +120
Love the value here with the Phillies as a home dog against Atlanta. Philadelphia will have the red-hot Drew Smyly on the mound. Smyly has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off an outing at New York where he held the Mets to just 4 hits over 7 shutout innings.
Julio Teheran has been good for Atlanta, but is just 4-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 15 road starts. He's also not been great of late against the Phillies. He's faced them 5 times over the last 2 seasons and given up 15 runs in 26 innings. He started one game at Philly earlier this year and the Braves lost that outing 10-4.
Phillies lost on Wednesday, but are 7-3 in their last 10 following a loss. They have also won 4 straight starts by Smyly against a team with a winning record and are 5-1 in his last 6 outings overall. Take Philadelphia!
|09-11-19||Diamondbacks +102 v. Mets||Top||0-9||Loss||-100||13 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - Diamondbacks/Mets HEAVY HITTER on Diamondbacks +102
Love Arizona to cash in a win at New York tonight. Arizona will have Robbie Ray on the mound and he's owned the Mets in his career. Ray has a 0.82 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 4 starts against New York.
Mets counter with Steven Matz, who has a 4.76 ERA in 4 starts against the Diamondbacks. That includes an ugly start at Arizona earlier this season (only start versus them in 2019), where he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) in 6 innings. Matz is 0-9 on the money line in his last 9 starts in the 2nd half of the season vs NL teams averaging 5 or more runs/game.
Dbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 overall, 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and a perfect 8-0 in Ray's last 8 road starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Arizona!
|09-10-19||Cubs v. Padres +139||Top||8-9||Win||139||16 h 34 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Padres +139
Love the value here with the Padres as a big home dog against the Cubs. Chicago won the opener 10-2 on Monday with 15 hits. The thing is that offense can't be trusted. The Cubs scored 10 runs on 16 hits in last week's series opener at Milwaukee and the very next night scored 1 run on 3 hits.
Padres will have Ronald Bolanos on the mound and the 23-year-old Cuban rookie was impressive in his first big league start. Bolanos allowed just 2 run on 5 hits in 6 innings at Arizona. Cubs on the other hand will have Jose Quintana on the mound and he's got a mere 4.11 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 13 road starts. He's also got a poor 4.91 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Cubs are just 3-10 in Quintana's last 13 road starts in the 2nd half vs a team that's getting outscored by 0.5+ runs/game. Take San Diego!
|09-09-19||Cubs v. Padres +136||Top||10-2||Loss||-100||16 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Padres +136
I love the value here with San Diego as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs. Padres will be up for a showdown with Chicago, who is fighting for a playoff spot. They are also catching the Cubs in a funk, as they just lost 3 straight to close out their series with the Brewers.
The offense has gone ice-cold for Chicago at the wrong time. Cubs are hitting just .222 as a team in their last 7 and that's why I'm okay with backing a struggling starter in Cal Quantrill. It's also worth pointing out that while the Cubs have what looks like a good starter in Kyle Hendricks going, he's just 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 14 road starts. Take San Diego!
|09-08-19||Angels v. White Sox +114||Top||1-5||Win||114||8 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox +114
Love the White Sox at home on Sunday against the Angels. Chicago has been really swinging a hot bat of late. White Sox put up 7 runs on Saturday and have scored 30 over their last 5. I look for Chicago to put up a big number here against LA's Jaime Barria, who is just 2-4 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 8 road starts this season.
White Sox will send out Dylan Cease. I know the numbers don't look great for Cease, but he's coming off a really strong start at Cleveland. He gave up just 4 runs on 6 2/3 innings. He only gave up 4 hits and had 11 strikeouts in the performance.
Angels are 5-16 in their last 21 road games and have lost 5 straight on the road with Barria listed as the starter. Take Chicago!
|09-07-19||Phillies v. Mets -154||Top||5-0||Loss||-154||13 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Mets -154
Love the Mets to come away with a win on Saturday. New York won a thriller 5-4 over the Phillies last night and have won 5 of 7. Philadelphia has lost 3 straight and may not have Bryce Harper for this one.
More than anything the Mets have a big edge on the mound with Marcus Stroman facing off against Drew Smyly. Stroman just held these same Phillies to a mere 2 runs in 6 innings on the road. Smyly is 3-5 with an awful 6.06 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in 17 starts.
Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 as a dog of +125 to +175 and the Mets are 15-5 last 20 after scoring 5 or more and 9-3 last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York!
|09-06-19||Nationals v. Braves +102||Top||3-4||Win||102||13 h 50 m||Show|
5* MLB - Nats/Braves NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Braves +102
Love the value here with Atlanta, as the Braves should have no problem winning at home an extending their winning streak to 8-games. Atlanta will have Dallas Keuchel on the mound and he's been dealing. Keuchel has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also got a strong 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 7 home starts.
Speaking of home/away splits, National's Pat Corbin has not been the same guy when he's pitching outside of Washington. Corbin is 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA in 14 home starts and is just 4-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 road starts. No surprise given these numbers the Nats are just 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. Braves are 6-1 last 7 at home vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a left-handed starter. Take Atlanta!
|09-05-19||Phillies v. Reds -155||Top||3-4||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -155
Easy play here on Cincinnati at home Thursday. Reds will send out arguably the best pitcher going in the game right now. In Gray's last 6 starts he's allowed just 3 earned runs on 18 hits and has racked up 44 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. That includes two starts against the Cardinals, 1 against the Cubs and 1 against the Braves, so he's not just doing this against bad teams.
While Gray is on a different level right now, Phillies starter Jason Vargas is in bad form. Vargas has a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also got a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 11 road starts this season.
Reds are 13-3 in Gray's last 16 starts vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 starts at home. Take Cincinnati!
|09-04-19||Giants +113 v. Cardinals||Top||9-8||Win||113||13 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +113
I love the Giants to secure a win at St Louis tonight. San Francisco comes in having lost 4 straight, but will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound to stop the bleeding. Giants have won 8 of Bumgarner's last 9 starts. He was dominant last time out, limiting the Padres to just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings.
Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha. While he's coming off a couple of decent outings, he's still a mere 5-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 19 starts this season. He's also got an awful 5.22 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 8 starts at home.
St Louis is 1-6 in their last 7 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Giants 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take San Francisco!
|09-03-19||Astros -155 v. Brewers||Top||2-4||Loss||-155||13 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB - Astros/Brewers VEGAS INSIDER on Astros -155
Love the Astros to secure another win on the road against the Brewers. We were on Houston Monday and they delivered a 3-2 win. I don't expect it to be that close tonight. Astros will have Zack Greinke on the mound and he'll be up against Milwaukee's Jordan Lyles.
Needless to say this is quite the pitching mismatch. Greinke is 14-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 28 starts. Lyles is 9-8 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 23 starts. Greinke faced Milwaukee earlier this season and held them to a mere 2 runs on 6 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings.
Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 interleague road games and have won 4 of Greinke's 5 starts since he came over in that big trade. Take Houston!
|09-02-19||Astros -173 v. Brewers||Top||3-2||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -173
I got no problem laying the big number here with Houston on the road. The Astros will be riding a wave of momentum into Milwaukee, as Justin Verlander threw a no-hitter in Sunday's series finale at Toronto.
Now they turn to the potential AL Cy Young winner in Gerrit Cole, who enters this contest at 15-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 27 starts. He's been on top of his game of late, striking out a ridiculous 36 hitters over his last 19 2/3 innings (36 of the 59 outs recorded were via K's)
Brewers will have Adrian Houser on the mound and he's pitched well of late, but he's due for a bad outing. Houser is a mere 2-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 12 starts. Milwaukee is 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 to open a series. Take Houston!
|09-01-19||Red Sox v. Angels +101||Top||4-3||Loss||-100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels +101
Love the Angels to win here at home against the Red Sox in Sunday's series finale. Boston will have David Price on the mound and he's been struggling. Price has a 9.69 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time out he was torched for 7 runs on 9 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
Angels will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has been lights out in his last 3 starts. Heaney has a 1.71 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. During this stretch he's given up a mere 4 earned runs on 12 hits with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings.
Boston is 0-5 in Price's last 5 starts and 1-4 in their last 5 on the road vs a left-handed starter. Angeles are 5-0 in Heaney's last 5 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Los Angeles!
|08-31-19||Twins v. Tigers +135||Top||7-10||Win||135||12 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Tigers +135
I love the value here with Detroit, as I think they are in a prime position to snag a win on Saturday. Tigers will have one of their best starters going in Matt Boyd and while he's fallen off a bit since his amazing start, he's got the good to tame any lineup. He's got 208 strikeouts in 159 innings.
Martin Perez only has a 4.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his 10 road starts this season, plus has a poor 4.54 ERA in 6 career starts against the Tigers. He's given up 5 runs on 9 hits in 11 innings in 2 starts vs Detroit this year and both of those were at home.
Big key here is that we are getting a fresh Boyd for this start, as he last took the mound on Aug. 25. That means he will be on 5 days of rest. Tigers are 10-1 in Boyd's last 11 home starts when he's working on 5 or 6 days of rest. Take Detroit!
|08-30-19||Mariners v. Rangers -118||Top||3-6||Win||100||14 h 32 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West No Limit TOP PLAY on Rangers -118
Absolutely love the value here with Texas as a small home favorite against the Mariners. Rangers will send out Kolby Allard, who is off a sensational start at Chicago. Allard held the White Sox to just 6 hits and didn't walk a batter over 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
I like his chances of building off that strong outing against a bad Seattle offense that has not hit left-handed starters well. Mariners are hitting just .232 as a team vs left-handed starters and are 12-25 in their last 37 vs a southpaw starter.
I also like going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on the road. He's got a 4.02 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 14 road starts. Seattle has lost 4 of his last 5 on the road and are just 9-27 as a team in their last 36 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Texas!
|08-29-19||Twins v. White Sox +180||Top||10-5||Loss||-100||8 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox +180
This is simply too good a price to pass up with Chicago. No question who the better team is, but with the way Jose Berrios has been throwing of late, no way should Minnesota be this big of a road dog against a division foe.
Berrios has completely lost his touch on the mound. After throwing 7 shutout innings in his final start of July, things have gone downhill. Berrios has a 8.44 ERA in 4 starts this August, rising his ERA from 2.80 to 3.53. He's allowed 20 runs on 32 hits and 10 walks over his last 21 1/3 innings. He's also given up 6 HRs in this stretch, which is as many as he had allowed in his previous 10 starts.
Dylan Cease starts for Chicago and while the numbers aren't great, he was sharp in his last start, which came at home against the Rangers. Cease held Texas to just 3 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings. His previous home start he held the Astros to just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. Take Chicago!
|08-28-19||Cardinals v. Brewers +121||Top||1-4||Win||121||8 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central - GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers +121
I love the value here with Milwaukee as a home dog in the series finale against the Cardinals. This is a big one for Milwaukee, who after losing the first two in this series are now 6.5-games back of St Louis in the NL Central and 3.5-games back of the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot. A loss here and things could spiral out of control.
Cardinals have Jack Flaherty going and he's 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That's great, but he's also got a mere 4.06 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 13 road starts. He's also got a 4.79 ERA in 8 career starts against the Brewers. He's faced them 3 times in 2019 and has given up 13 runs on 19 hits (6 HRs) over a span of 13 innings.
Brewers are 35-17 in their last 52 after losing the first 2 games of a series. Cardinals are 1-4 in Flaherty's last 5 road starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts in Game 3 of a series. Take Milwaukee!
|08-27-19||Pirates v. Phillies -136||Top||5-4||Loss||-136||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Phillies -136
This is just too good a price to pass up with Philadelphia at home. Phillies took the series opener on Monday by a final of 6-5. That's now 4 times in their last 5 games that they have put at least 5 runs on the board.
That offense will be up against Steven Brault of the Pirates, who has a respectable 3.41 ERA in 13 starts, but also owns a not so great 1.364 WHIP. That WHIP is worth noting, as the Phillies have gone a dominant 40-17 in their last 57 games vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or more. Phillies are also 33-15 in their 48 at home vs a left-handed starter.
Drew Smyly will be making his 7th start for the Phillies and while he has a very mediocre 4.73 in those 6 starts, that's a heck of improvement over the 8.42 ERA he had with the Rangers earlier this season. Even more important, Phillies are 5-1 in those 6 starts. Take Philadelphia!
|08-26-19||Dodgers v. Padres +152||Top||3-4||Win||152||16 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West Value PLAY OF THE MONTH on Padres +152
This is just too good a price to pass up given the dominance of Padres starter Eric Lauer against the Dodgers. As hard as it is to believe, Lauer has gone 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. The even more impressive stat, all 6 of those starts have come over the last two seasons.
The other huge thing here is that while Dodgers starter Dustin May has been impressive in limited action, he's the guy you want to be facing out of that loaded rotation. Also, May did face these Padres earlier this month and he wasn't sharp. He gave up 4 runs on 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-2 Padres win. Take San Diego!
|08-25-19||Tigers v. Twins -174||Top||4-7||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Twins -174
I got no problem laying the big juice here with Minnesota at home against the Tigers. Detroit is really bad and while they cashed in as big dog in the opener of this series, they are just 14-49 in their last 63 games.
They have given up 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 games and today's starter, Matt Boyd, has a 7.20 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit has lost 5 straight road starts by Boyd against a team with a winning record
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 39-16 in their last 55 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Minnesota!
|08-24-19||Nationals +138 v. Cubs||Top||7-2||Win||138||8 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Early Bird GAME OF THE MONTH on Nationals +138
I'll gladly take the Nationals as a big road dog on Saturday. Washington cashed in an easy 8-0 win over the Cubs on Friday. Nationals have won 3 in a row and 10 of their last 12 overall. When the offense goes off they tend to build on that, as they are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 5 or more runs.
Jose Quintana has been solid for the Cubs of late, but he's still got a very mediocre 4.02 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 24 starts. He's got an extra day of rest here and that's been a bit of a curse for him, as Chicago is just 1-4 in his last 5 when working on 5 days of rest.
Nationals will start Tyson Ross and he's been great. He's got a 1.35 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 5 starts. Nats have won each of his last 4 starts and are 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team from the NL Central. Take Washington!
|08-23-19||Rangers v. White Sox +140||Top||3-8||Win||140||14 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on White Sox +140
I absolutely love the value with Chicago as a big home dog against the Rangers. I get the Rangers have a decent starter going in Lance Lynn, but he's facing a surging White Sox offense that just got back one of their best hitters in Yoan Moncada.
Lynn has also failed to make it past the 5th inning in each of his last 2 starts. Lynn also gave up 5 runs in his only start against Chicago this season.
Texas only managed 1 run on 3 hits in the series opener last night and have scored 3 or fewer in 5 of their last 8 games. Rangers are now 2-7 in their last 9 road games and have gone 8-20 in their last 28 after giving up 5 or more in their previous game. No way should Texas be this big of a favorite. Take Chicago!
|08-22-19||Giants v. Cubs -159||Top||0-1||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cubs -159
I'm confident the Cubs cashing in a win and finishing off the 3-game sweep of the Giants. Chicago is coming off a thrilling 12-11 win over SF on Wednesday. A victory that had Cubs' players calling it a "season-defining win."
That's now 4 straight win for Chicago and it's hard to see them losing here. Cubs will have ace Kyle Hendricks on the mound, who has looked like a Cy Young front-runner when he pitches at Wrigley. Hendricks has a 1.98 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in 10 home starts.
Jeff Samardzija goes for the Giants and SF is just 16-36 in his last 52 starts vs a team with a winning record. Cubs have accounted for some of that, as Samardzija is 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in 4 career starts. Take the Cubs -159!
|08-21-19||Royals v. Orioles +105||Top||1-8||Win||105||12 h 29 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles +105
Love the Orioles in Wednesday's home game against the Royals. Baltimore lost a heartbreaker in the opener 5-4, but battled back with a 4-1 win on Tuesday. It's just a real struggle for KC to score runs. Royals haven't had 6 or fewer hits for the game in 6 of their last 7 contests.
It's a big reason why I'm not worried about the poor numbers for Orioles starter Aaron Brooks. KC is just 17-48 in their last 65 road games vs a right-handed starter and 2-9 in their last 11 vs an AL starter with a ERA of 5.90 or worse. Take Baltimore!
|08-20-19||Nationals v. Pirates +149||Top||1-4||Win||149||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Pirates +149
I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a big home dog against the Nationals. Washington is coming off a ridiculous 3-game stretch where they scored 14, 16 and 13 runs, respectably. Pirates have scored a total of 1 run in their last 3. Needless to say the line here is inflated on the Nationals.
However, Washington is a mere 1-9 over the last 3 seasons after a 3-game stretch where they hit .350 or better as a team. Pirates will also have a solid starter going in Chris Archer, who has a strong 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.50 ERA in 3 career starts against the Nationals.
Strong system here backing Pittsburgh. NL home underdogs of +125 or more that are giving up 5.5 or more runs/game and come in having scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 straight games. Take Pittsburgh!
|08-19-19||Padres v. Reds -157||Top||3-2||Loss||-157||13 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -157
Easy play on Cincinnati at home in Monday's series opener against the Padres. Reds have really been playing well the last month or so. While they come in having lost 6 of their last 8, the losses in this stretch came against the Cubs, Nationals and Cardinals, who at the moment are all playoff teams.
For me this is a much big mismatch in starting pitching. I give a huge edge here to Reds starter Trevor Bauer against the likes of the Padres Eric Lauer. In 11 road starts this year, Lauer has posted an awful 6.20 ERA and 1.453 WHIP. Padres have lost 4 of his last 5 road starts vs a team with a losing record.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing record and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 when coming off a loss. Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 off a win and the same 3-10 in their last 13 series openers. Take Cincinnati!
|08-18-19||Mets v. Royals +162||Top||11-5||Loss||-100||8 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals +162
I absolutely love the value here with Kansas City as a big home dog against the Mets. New York was able to pull out a 4-1 win behind deGrom on Saturday, but it wasn't easy. I think the Mets are way overvalued. Sure they played some great baseball, but a lot of that success came against bad teams.
No way should New York be this big of a road favorite with Zach Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler is just 4-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 12 road starts. In his last outing he was torched for 5 runs on 12 hits in 5 innings at Atlanta.
KC will turn to Glenn Sparkman and he's been unbelievable at Kauffman Stadium. Sparkman has a 2.54 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 7 home starts. Take Kansas City!
|08-17-19||Dodgers -143 v. Braves||Top||3-4||Loss||-143||9 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB -Dodgers/Braves NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Dodgers -143
Easy play here on the Dodgers to cash in a win at Atlanta on Saturday. I think LA is out to send a message to the Braves, who are what most consider their biggest threat in the NL. Dodgers took the series opener 8-3 on Friday and did so against arguably Atlanta's best starter.
The Dodgers have scored 9, 15, 9, 7 and 8 runs over their last 5 games. Braves are sending out Mike Foltynewicz, who has an awful 6.24 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 13 starts. Not to mention an even worse 8.81 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
LA is sending out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who returned from a short absence to throw 7 shutout innings in his last start. Ryu is now 12-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Too good a price to pass up the Dodgers in this one. Take Los Angeles!
|08-16-19||White Sox v. Angels -117||Top||7-2||Loss||-117||16 h 35 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Angels -117
Love the value here with the Angels as a small home favorite against the White Sox. People are going to be enticed with taking Chicago because they have Lucas Giolito on the mound, but I just think that's a mistake.
While Giolito has been great for the White Sox this season, he's going up against an Angels offense that is locked in right now. Angels have scored 22 runs on 31 hits in their last 3 games and are averaging 6.4 runs/game in their last 7 contests.
Patrick Sandoval didn't have the best big league debut, but he also had the difficult task of making his first start at Fenway Park against a loaded Red Sox lineup. I think he's going to be a different guy here at home against a weaker White Sox lineup. Take Los Angeles!
|08-15-19||Cubs v. Phillies +137||Top||5-7||Win||137||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE YEAR on Phillies +137
I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Cubs on Thursday. I have played and won on the Phillies in each of the first two games in this series. They snuck out a 4-2 win on Tuesday, but absolutely annihilated Chicago 11-1 on Wednesday.
Yu Darvish will start for the Cubs and while he's been a lot better of late, he revered some in his last start at Cincinnati, giving up 4 runs in 6 innings, serving up 3 home runs in the process.
I know the numbers aren't great for Drew Smyly, but he's been better of late and we see that with his 1.132 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Smyly is also facing a Cubs offense that is struggling to score. Chicago has scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5.
Cubs are now 10-24 in their last 24 road games and are 0-4 in Darvish's last 4 starts on the road. Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Philadelphia!
|08-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies +133||Top||6-7||Win||133||9 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockies +133
Love the value here with Colorado as a decently priced home dog against the Diamondbacks. Rockies will be motivated here to avoid getting swept at home by Arizona.
Dbacks will send out Robbie Ray and he's just 5-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Rockies. Ray has already made 2 starts at Coors Field this season and has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in 10 1/3 innings. Ray is also not a fan of pitching in day games. Colorado is just 2-6 this season and 3-12 over the last 2 seasons when Ray starts a day contest.
I know the numbers aren't great for Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, but he's trending in the right direction. He's been rock solid in each of his last two outings. Colorado also just seems to find a way to win at home with him on the mound. Rockies are 17-6 in Freeland's last 23 home starts, including a 10-3 mark in his last 13 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Colorado!
|08-13-19||Mets v. Braves -122||Top||3-5||Win||100||13 h 48 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves -122
I love the value here with Atlanta as a small home favorite against New York. The Mets are the flavor of the week right now, as they have went on a ridiculous run over the last 3 weeks. I believe it has them way overvalued here on the road against your NL East leaders.
I get that Zack Wheeler has been really good of late with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts, but you have to factor in that those 3 starts came against the Marlins, White Sox and Pirates. All of those fail in comparison to the fire-power of Atlanta's offense, which is averaging 6.7 runs/game over their last 7 contests. Wheeler also has a 4.19 ERA in 11 road stats and has allowed 7 runs on 16 hits in 12 innings (2 starts) against the Braves this year.
Atlanta will turn to Max Fried. They have won 16 of his last 22 starts, including each of his last 4. Fried also has a strong 2.95 ERA in 4 career starts against the Mets. Braves are 7-0 in Fried's last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Atlanta!
|08-12-19||Diamondbacks +107 v. Rockies||Top||8-6||Win||107||14 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks +107
Arizona should have no problem cashing in a win on the road against the reeling Rockies. Diamondbacks lost 2 of 3 at the Dodgers over the weekend, but are still 5-3 in their last 8 and I look for them to get right back in the win column on Monday.
Colorado was suppose to be a contender, but have lost 31 of their last 44 games to fall well out of the playoff race. Just no way you can feel confident backing this Rockies team right now, especially with the likes of Peter Lambert on the mound. Lambert has made 11 starts and owns an awful 6.87 ERA and 1.582 WHIP. He's given up more than a run/inning in his last 3 starts and is facing an Arizona offense that is averaging a healthy 5.4 runs/game on the road this season.
Rockies have lost 7 of 10 at home and are a mere 4-14 in their last 18 vs a division opponent. They have a mere 1 win in Lambert's last 9 starts. Take Arizona!
|08-11-19||Diamondbacks +200 v. Dodgers||Top||3-9||Loss||-100||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks +200
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Diamondbacks in Sunday's series finale against the Dodgers. Arizona has been playing well of late with 5 wins in their last 7 games and I feel this a good spot to fade LA, who we know is being overvalued by the books with how much the public likes to back them.
Public will definitely be on the Dodgers in this one, as they will send out the favorite to win the NL Cy Young in Hyun-Jin Ryu. What they will over look is that he is making his first start back from the IL. I could see him dealing with some rust, which wouldn't be something new. LA is a mere 2-6 in Ryu's last 8 starts when he's throwing on 10 or more days of rest.
Diamondbacks have gone an impressive 12-4 in their last 16 in Game 3 of a series, are 12-5 in their last 17 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 6-2 in their last 8 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Arizona!
|08-10-19||Rockies +195 v. Padres||Top||5-8||Loss||-100||14 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockies +195
Love the value here with Colorado in this one. No way should the Padres be anything close to a -200 favorite against a team like the Rockies. Colorado is not a playoff team, but they are more talented than a lot of the other bad teams in the league.
San Diego is even less deserving of this price when you factor in the recent struggles of starter Chris Paddack, who has a 6.28 ER and 1.326 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Padres are a mere 1-8 in Paddack's last 9 starts following a win and have lost 12 of their last 15 when coming off a win by 4 or more.
Padres are also not playing great at home. Even after taking the first two games in this series, they are just 4-10 in their last 14 at home. Take Colorado!
|08-09-19||Pirates v. Cardinals -135||Top||2-6||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cardinals -135
I love the value we are getting with St Louis at home against the Pirates. Cardinals are going to be a pissed off bunch, as they just lost 5 straight out west to the A's and Dodgers. Cardinals are different team at home.
Pirates are the perfect team to get right against. Pittsburgh has been on quite the free fall since the All-Star break. Pirates went into the break a mere 1-game under .500 at 44-45. Heading into tonight's action they are 18-games under .500 at 48-66.
Pirates will send out Chris Archer and he's been an easy fade on the road. Pittsburgh has last 7 of his 9 road starts and it's easy to see why when you look at his 7.14 ERA and 1.478 WHIP away from home. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson has a solid 3.54 ERA in 10 home starts (7-3 team record) and has pitched well in both of his outings against the Pirates. Take St Louis!
|08-08-19||Cubs -123 v. Reds||Top||12-5||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cubs -123
Love the value here with Chicago as a small road favorite against the Reds on Thursday. Cubs are fresh off a 5-1 homestand and not only was the pitching great (allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 games), the offense was outstanding (scored at least 4 in every game).
I look for them to stay hot at the plate against Reds' starter Alex Wood, who is still working out the kinks. This will be just the 3rd start for Wood in 2019. While he's only given up 4 runs in 11 1/3 innings, he's allowed 3 homers. Cubs hit 3 homers in yesterday's 10-1 win over the A's and the ball flies out of Great American Ballpark.
Chicago will also have Cole Hamels on the mound and they have really missed him. Hamels made his first start back from the IL and was outstanding in 5 shutout innings, allowing just 4 hits with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts. Hamels has a 1.83 ERA in 19 career starts (17-2 team record!). Take Chicago!
|08-07-19||White Sox -103 v. Tigers||Top||8-1||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox -103
Absolutely love the value here with the White Sox on Wednesday. Chicago split the double-header with Detroit on Tuesday. Tigers won the second game and are poised to return right back to their losing ways. Detroit has not won back-to-back games since winning 3 in a row way back in the final week of May.
That right there is enough reason to take a shot on the White Sox at this price. However, there's more reason to like Chicago in this matchup. White Sox offense is heating up with the return of Tim Anderson to the lineup from injury. Chicago has scored 28 runs in their last 4 games (at least 5 in each). White Sox will also send out the red-hot Ivan Nova, who is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Chicago!
|08-06-19||Rockies +188 v. Astros||Top||6-11||Loss||-100||14 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies +188
No way I'm passing up a big play here on the Rockies as a near +200 dog with German Marquez on the mound. Houston should be favored at home, but this line has been drastically inflated with the hype around Zack Greinke and his recent trade to the Astros.
I could definitely see Greinke struggling here and he's got an ERA close to 4.00 in his career against the Rockies. Marquez will start for the Rockies and he's been outstanding of late, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Marquez has really enjoyed pitching away from Coors Field. He's got a 4.68 ERA on the season, but a stellar 3.20 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 12 road starts.
Rockies have won 9 of Marquez's last 11 road starts and the Astros are a mere 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs a team with a losing record. Take Colorado!
|08-05-19||Cardinals +157 v. Dodgers||Top||0-8||Loss||-100||15 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals +157
I love the value here with St Louis in Monday's series opener with the Dodgers. It doesn't matter who LA is starting or who they are playing, they are going to be overvalued by the books against most teams.
No way should the Dodgers be this big of a favorite with the likes of Tony Gonsolin on the mound. The rookie has just 1 big league start on his resume and it wasn't great. He gave up 6 runs (earned) on 6 hits in 4 innings at Arizona. LA has also not played their best to start out a new week, going just 1-4 in their last 5 games on Monday.
Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated after getting swept by the A's in a short 2-game series at Oakland. They will have Michael Wacha on the mound and have enjoyed quite a bit of success with Wacha to open up a series, going 9-3 his last 12 series openers. Cardinals are also 9-1 in their last 10 games played on Monday. Take St Louis!
|08-04-19||Mets -138 v. Pirates||Top||13-2||Win||100||6 h 3 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets -138
I thought the Mets would stumble on Saturday after having their big win streak snapped, but they returned right back to their winning ways with a 7-5 win. New York has caught fire with a 8-1 record over their last 9 games.
As good as the Mets have been the Pirates have been bad. Pittsburgh's loss on Saturday was their 17th in their last 21 games. It's been a massive free-fall and I just think the price is too good to pass up with NY in this one.
Mets will have Noah Syndergaard going and he's got a 1.69 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Pirates will have Joe Musgrove, who has a 4.52 ERA in 11 home starts and while he pitched well in his last outing, Pittsburgh is 5-16 in his last 21 starts after a Quality Start. Take New York!
|08-03-19||Mets v. Pirates +123||Top||7-5||Loss||-100||17 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +123
I love the value here with Pittsburgh at home on Saturday. Mets had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Friday, as the Pirates won 8-4. Always tough to win that next game after having a long winning streak snapped.
I also think Mets are getting a little bit of love here because of the fact that they will send out Marcus Stroman for the first time since acquiring him in a trade. Stroman was outstanding in his audition to be traded, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts with Toronto. It doesn't mean he's going to pitch well here.
Pirates offense has scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Also, home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are giving up 5 or more runs/game on the season and facing a starter with an ERA of 2.00 or less in his last 3 starts are a dominant 42-18 (70%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Pittsburgh!
|08-02-19||Padres +164 v. Dodgers||Top||5-2||Win||164||15 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Padres +164
Absolutely love the value here with San Diego as a massive road dog against the Dodgers. There's not denying that LA is the best team in the NL, but they aren't going to win every game the rest of the way and are being way overvalued by the books.
Dodgers will be sending out Dustin May for his first ever big league start. The 21-year-old is a big time prospect in their organization, but more times than not these kids struggle out of the gate. He was just 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 15 starts at Double-A before going 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA at Triple-A. You also rarely see these kids pitch deep in their first start.
Padres have scored 5 or more in 4 of their last 5 and I look for them to put up a big number and get a big road win on Friday. Take San Diego!
|08-01-19||Cubs +118 v. Cardinals||Top||0-8||Loss||-100||12 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Cubs +118
I love the value here with Chicago as a road dog against rival St Louis. Cubs evened up the series with a 2-0 win on Wednesday. It's been a low-scoring series so far with a total of 5 runs scored by both teams in 2 games.
I don't see the Cardinals offense being able to turn it on against veteran starter Jon Lester. In his last start Lester was outstanding with 7 shutout innings at Milwaukee. Lester has been a major thorn in the side of St Louis, as he owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 22 career starts.
Cubs as a team are quietly owning the Cardinals. After yesterday's win they are 30-19 against the Cardinals in the last 3 seasons. St Louis starter, Jack Flaherty has been throwing well, but he's got a mere 4.66 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 6 starts.
Cubs are 39-14 in Lester's last 53 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and 7-2 in his last 9 during game 3 of a series. Cardinals are 2-8 in Flaherty's last 10 after a Quality Start and 0-4 in his last 4 during game 3 of a series. Take Chicago!
|07-31-19||Giants +128 v. Phillies||Top||5-1||Win||128||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - National League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants +128
Love the value here with San Francisco, as I think they should be favored if anything in this one. Phillies won 4-2 in the series opener yesterday, but that's a rare loss for the Giants of late. San Fran is 19-6 in their last 25 games.
Giants have a huge edge on the mound here with them sending out Jeff Samardzija and Philadelphia turning to Vincent Velasquez. Samardzija has really turned a corner this month. He's got a 2.48 ERA in 5 July starts.
Velasquez is 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 12 starts. He pitched well in his last start, but that was against a bad Tigers offense. In his previous start he gave up 4 homers and 5 runs in less than 5 innings of work. Giants are a sneaky good road offense, as they are averaging 5.3 runs/game away from home this season. Take San Francisco!
|07-30-19||Twins v. Marlins +140||Top||2-1||Loss||-100||12 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +140
I love the value here with Miami as a massive home dog against the Twins. No question who the better team has been over the course of the season, but Miami comes into this contest having won 5 of 6. They just put up 16 runs in their last 2 games at home against the Dbacks.
That offense will be up against a struggling Jake Odorizzi of the Twins, who has a 8.16 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Miami will have the underrated Zac Gallen on the mound, who has a strong 2.76 ERA in 6 starts and a 1.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Marlins have won 5 of their last 6 interleague games, while the Twins are a mere 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games. Take Miami!
|07-29-19||Braves +140 v. Nationals||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +140
Love the value here with Atlanta on the road against the Nationals. Big series here between these to NL East rivals. Braves are 5.5-games ahead of Washington in the division and I look for them to add to that margin with a win in the series opener.
Atlanta will send out Dallas Keuchel, who has been a great signing for them. Keuchel has a 3.50 ERA in 7 starts and even that's a bit misleading. Keuchel has only given up more than 3 runs in one of those 7 starts. He's fresh off a dominant outing against the Royals, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 12 K's in 6 innings.
Braves are a strong 31-22 as a road dog of +150 or less, 24-11 in their last 35 vs a division foe and 11-4 in their last 15 off a loss. Take Atlanta!
|07-28-19||Yankees +170 v. Red Sox||Top||9-6||Win||170||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Yankees/Red Sox Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Yankees +170
New York is worth a look here as a massive underdog in Sunday's series finale against rival Boston. To say the Yankees will be motivated is an understatement. New York has lost the first 3 games in the series and have given up 38 runs in the process.
Slowing down the Red Sox offense won't be easy, but I like the Yankees to score a bunch here against Boston's Chris Sale, who is just 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA in 10 home starts. Red Sox are just 3-7 in those 10 outings.
Yankees will send out Domingo German and NY is a dominant 10-1 in his last 11 starts vs a division opponent. They are also 8-2 in his last 10 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take New York!
|07-27-19||Rangers +157 v. A's||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||16 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers +157
Amazing value here with the Rangers as a huge road dog against the A's. No way should Oakland be getting this kind of respect with how they are playing. A's have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas on the other hand has won 3 of 4.
The big problem for the A's is their offense has gone ice-cold. Oakland has scored 4 or fewer in 4 straight and are averaging just 3.3 runs/game and hitting a lousy .183 as a team over their last 7 games. Rangers have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 and figure to stay hot with the A's Homer Bailey supporting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Rangers have won the first two in the series and that's worth noting, as the A's have dropped 8 straight after losing the first two in a series. Bailey is also 3-19 in his last 22 starts vs the ML when simply facing a team with a winning record. Take Texas!
|07-26-19||Dodgers v. Nationals +154||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nationals +154
This is just too good a price to pass up with Washington at home. The Dodgers are a great team, but no way should they be this big a favorite on the road against another playoff caliber team. Nationals have been on quite a run the last 2 months and even with yesterday's loss to the Rockies are 13-4 in their last 17 at home.
The overall numbers are great for Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, as he's 11-2 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 19 starts. While still great, it is worth noting that his ERA is pushing 3.00 (2.92) on the road. Dodgers are just 4-12 in Ryu's last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record and 8-17 in his last 25 road games played at night.
Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 following a SU loss, have won 4 straight series openers and are 8-2 in Anibal Sanchez's last 10 starts. Take Washington!
|07-25-19||Padres +192 v. Mets||Top||0-4||Loss||-100||5 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Padres +192
It's hard to blame the books for overpricing the Mets with an elite starter like Jacob deGrom on the mound, but the value continues to be on the opposing teams. New York is a mere 8-22 in deGrom's last 30 home starts, yet are a -200 favorite.
Padres had no problem getting to New York's Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday and have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Mets offense is the complete opposite. The 2 runs NY scored in yesterday's loss marked the 4th time in the last 6 games that they scored 2 or fewer runs.
Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs a right-handed starter. Mets 9-20 last 29 vs a marginal losing team (46% to 49% WP). Take San Diego!
|07-24-19||Reds +137 v. Brewers||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +137
Love the value here with Cincinnati as a decently priced road dog at Milwaukee. Reds have already won the first two games of the series and it feels like the Brewers are in trouble. The pitching has not been good and they just lost Woodruff for 6 or more weeks. They will send out Jhoulys Chacin for this one and he's 3-10 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.529 WHIP.
Reds are swinging a hot bat with 29 hits and 20 runs the last two days. Hard to see Chacin keeping them in check. Cincinnati will send out Lucas Sims for his second start of 2019. The first one was promising. While Sims allowed 4 runs, he struck out 9 and walked just 1 while pitching into the 8th inning. Take Cincinnati!
|07-23-19||Reds +128 v. Brewers||Top||14-6||Win||128||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Reds +128
I nailed my free pick on Cincinnati as a road dog over Milwaukee on Monday and will fire right back with the Reds as an even bigger dog in Game 2 of their 3-game series. I just think Cincinnati starter, Tanner Roark, is being way undervalued here.
Roark has an ugly 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts, but that's a direct result of one bad outing at Coors Field against the Rockies, where he gave up 7 runs on 13 hits in 4 2/3 innings. He bounced back in his next start and allowed just 2 runs in 5 innings vs a hot Cardinals team. He's allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Brewers will send out Zach Davies, who has a sensational 2.79 ERA in 20 starts overall and a 0.50 ERA in his last 3 outings. However, Davies has had his struggles against the Reds. He's faced them 12 times and has an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP at 1.340. That includes 2 starts this year, where he's allowed 8 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in just 8 innings of work. Take Cincinnati!
|07-22-19||Rangers +116 v. Mariners||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||15 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +116
Easy play here on Texas as an underdog against the Mariners. Looking back at it now, it's crazy to think that Seattle started out the season 13-2. They have won just 27 games since and are 33 games under .500 since that epic start.
They are in really bad form right now, as the Mariners are a mere 3-15 in their last 18 games. I know Texas is struggling, but this is the team to get right against. Note that Seattle has lost 24 of their last 31 at home vs a team with a winning record and 7 of their last 8 games against Texas. No way should the Rangers be a dog in this fight. Take Texas!
|07-21-19||Rangers +134 v. Astros||Top||3-5||Loss||-100||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Division Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers +134
Love the value here with the Rangers on Sunday. Houston is overpriced here because of how good they are and the fact that they come in having won 4 straight while Texas has lost 6 in a row.
They key here is the starting pitching matchup. Astros are sending out Rogelio Armenteros for his first big league start. Armenteros has been used 3 times out of the pen and doesn't figure to go deep here.
As for Texas, they will send out Lance Lynn, who is having himself quite the season. Lynn has turned back the clock and posted a strong 12-5 record with a 3.87 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 20 starts. He's also one of the few guys that have been able to tame this Astros lineup. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA in 8 career starts against Houston. He's faced them twice this year and allowed a mere 3 runs with 19 K's in 14 innings. Take Texas!
|07-20-19||Blue Jays v. Tigers +116||Top||7-5||Loss||-100||11 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Tigers +116
The Blue Jays rolled the Tigers 12-1 on Friday, so I'm expecting a big effort here from Detroit at home. Toronto is also a team that you want to fade off a win, as they are just 15-36 in their last 51 off a win. Blue Jays are also prone to a bad showing after an offensive outburst. Toronto is 2-16 in their last 18 after scoring 10 or more runs.
You also have to factor in who the Blue Jays have on the mound. Toronto will send out Trent Thornton, who is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 20 starts. He didn't even complete 2 innings in his last start. Take Detroit!
|07-19-19||Mets v. Giants +173||Top||0-1||Win||173||15 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Giants +173
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants were already riding a wave of momentum coming into this series, as they had won 5 straight and 8 of their last 9. They added to it on Thursday with a thrilling 3-2 win in 16 innings for their 6th win in a row.
Mets are getting way too much love here because of Jacob deGrom n the mound, but San Francisco's Tyler Beede has been throwing lights out of late. Beede has won each of his last 2 starts and has a strong 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Mets are just 3-12 in their last 15 road games after a loss by 2 runs or less and 4-12 in deGrom's 16 night starts this season. Giants are 6-1 when Beede starts as an underdog. Take San Francisco!
|07-18-19||A's +132 v. Twins||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on A's +132
I'm shocked we are getting the A's at this kind of a price with how well Oakland has been playing. The A's just hit 6 homers in yesterday's 10-2 win over the Mariners, which capped off a perfect homestand. They have won 19 of their last 24 to move just 4.5-games back of the Astros for the top spot in the AL West.
In their last 7 games the A's are outscoring their opponents 7.1-2.7 (+4.4 runs/game). Twins are definitely a contender, but they have been trending down some from their incredible start. The offense has struggled of late as they are averaging just 4.0 runs/game and hitting .240 as a team over their last 7 (avg 5.6 runs/game and hitting .270 on the season).
A's will send out the red-hot Michael Fiers, who is 9-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts and has a 0.88 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 11 starts vs the Twins. Take Oakland!
|07-17-19||Pirates +117 v. Cardinals||Top||5-6||Loss||-100||6 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +117
Pittsburgh snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday and I like them to build off that with another win on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will send out Chris Archer. The 2019 numbers aren't great for Archer, but he's got a strong history against St Louis, posting a 2.76 ERA in 3 starts.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and St Louis is a mere 2-10 in their last 12 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less and 2-12 in their last 14 after a game with a combined score of 4 or less. Take Pittsburgh!
|07-16-19||White Sox v. Royals +117||Top||0-11||Win||117||13 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals +117
Easy play here for me with Kansas City as a home dog against the White Sox. Royals have won 3 of 4 since returning from the All-Star break, while Chicago has lost 4 in a row. White Sox are having a miserable time scoring runs, as they have eclipsed 2 runs since the break.
Royals will send out Glenn Sparkman. The overall numbers aren't great, as he's just 2-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 9 starts. However, the home/away splits have been pretty drastic. Sparkman has a 1.38 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in 4 home starts.
Chigao is sending out Dylan Cease for his second big league start. Cease gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 5 innings of his first start and that was against a bad Tigers offense. Royals have scored 25 runs on 37 hits in the 4 games since the break. Take Kansas City!
|07-15-19||Dodgers -160 v. Phillies||Top||16-2||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Dodgers -160
Easy play here on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener against the Phillies. LA got rocked the first game back from the All-Star break, but responded by winning the final two over the weeked against the Red Sox, scoring 18 runs on 23 hits.
Dodgers will have veteran ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound, who is 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 15 starts. He'll be facing a Phillies offense that managed just 7 runs in their series at home against Washington over the weekend.
Phillies will also be sending out the struggling Zach Eflin, who has a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eflin has also not enjoyed facing the Dodgers, as he's 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in 4 starts (0-4 team record). Take Los Angeles!
|07-14-19||Tigers +142 v. Royals||Top||12-8||Win||142||7 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers +142
Love this spot and price with Detroit as a road dog against division rival KC. Tigers will have veteran Jordan Zimmerman on the mound and he's owned the Royals in his career. Zimmerman is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in 8 starts versus Kansas City.
Royals will send out Homer Bailey, who has a very mediocre 4.80 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 18 starts. KC is just 1-4 in his last 5 when he starts Game 3 of a series. Royals are also a mere 6-21 in their last 27 following a win and have lost 24 of their last 33 games played on Sunday. Take Detroit!
|07-13-19||Reds +114 v. Rockies||Top||17-9||Win||114||16 h 52 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds +114
Love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog against the Rockies on Saturday. I just don't trust Colorado starter Kyle Freeland. I know the guy was great last year, finishing 4th in the Cy Young, but he's simply not the same guy in 2019.
Freeland had a 10.17 ERA in 6 starts in May and was demoted to the minors, where he's spent 6 weeks trying to figure things out. For the most part the struggles continued. I would much rather take my chances with Reds starter Tanner Roark, who is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 9 road starts this season. Take Cincinnati!
|07-12-19||White Sox +173 v. A's||Top||1-5||Loss||-100||15 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on White Sox +173
Easy play here on Chicago as a massive road dog against the A's on Friday. You might be thinking White Sox starter Ivan Nova is a guy you want to fade, given he's just 4-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 18 starts.
However, Nova went into the break with a strong 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 4 starts vs the A's and Chicago is 5-1 this season when he starts as a dog of +150 or more. White Sox are also 4-1 in Nova's last 5 starts to open a series. Take Chicago!
|07-11-19||Astros -131 v. Rangers||Top||0-5||Loss||-131||12 h 9 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -131
There might be some that are hesitant to back the Astros because they will be starting Framber Valdez, who is a mere 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 4 starts. Valdez does have a a much more respectable 4.57 ERA on the season, as he has also made 14 relief appearances. Keep in mind this is also the same guy that had a sensational 2.19 ERA over 5 starts and 3 relief appearances last year.
The price is simply too good to pass up. Houston is 70-32 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons and are a dominant 20-8 this year as a favorite of -100 to -150 (home & away). Not to mention they are 26-7 vs other AL West teams this season. Take Houston!
|07-09-19||National League v. American League -108||Top||3-4||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - All-Star Game VEGAS INSIDER on American League -108
When you factor in just how dominant the AL has been in this All-Star Game, this is just too good a price to pass up. American League has won 6 straight and are 24-6-1 in the last 31 meetings. Not to say the NL roster doesn't have great players, I just think top to bottom the AL is hands down the better team. Take the American League!
|07-07-19||Brewers v. Pirates +105||Top||5-6||Win||105||6 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +105
Pittsburgh should have no problem here going into the All-Star break with a win at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee has not been playing well and likely need some time off to get back on track. Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5. After scoring just 2 runs on Saturday, Milwaukee has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.
Hard to see them snapping out of that funk against the red-hot arm of Pirates starter Joe Musgrave. He's got a 0.56 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While the Brewers are struggling to score, Pittsburgh comes in averaging 7.3 runs/game and are hitting .333 as a team over their last 7.
Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 following a win. Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 1-4 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh!
|07-06-19||A's v. Mariners +125||Top||3-6||Win||125||15 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Mariners +125
This is the ideal spot for Seattle to snap out of their funk and get a big win at home against division rival Oakland. Mariners will send out Marco Gonzales for this one and he's trending in the right direction with a 3.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even more important is Gonzales' strong track record against the A's, as he's 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 5 career starts.
Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt, who has an ERA north of 4.00 in his last 3 starts and is 0-3 in 5 starts (1-4 team record) against the Mariners. Bassit faced Seattle back in June and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss. Gonzalez was the opposing starter, and allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings.
Mariners are 17-8 in Gonzales' last 25 starts with a money line of -125 to +125. A's are 1-6 in Bassit's last 7 during Game 2 of a series and 0-6 in his last 6 starts on Saturday. Take Seattle!
|07-05-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays -121||Top||4-1||Loss||-121||12 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays -121
As difficult as it may be to back Toronto with Aaron Sanchez on the mound, I like Sanchez to deliver the goods and for the Blue Jays to secure an easy win at home against division rival Baltimore.
Orioles are simply the ideal team to fade on the road, no matter who is on the mound for the opposing team. Baltimore is 14-30 away from home this season, where they are getting outscored by 1.7 runs/game.
Let's also not overlook how poor Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy has been of late. He's 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Orioles are just 4-12 in his 16 starts this season. O's have also dropped 12 straight when Bundy starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Toronto!
|07-04-19||Brewers v. Reds +120||Top||0-1||Win||120||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +120
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a home dog. Reds have won 4 of 6 and have scored 5 or more in 4 of those games. No way should they be a dog here at home with the likes of Luis Castillo on the mound. Castillo is one of the best starters in the game. He's 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 17 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 9 home starts.
Milwaukee will send out Brandon Woodruff, who has a 4.29 ERA in 7 road starts and an ugly 8.68 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Reds. Brewers are just 1-5 in their lat 6 on the road and 1-4 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Castillo's last 14 at home in this spot. Take Cincinnati!
|07-02-19||Cardinals v. Mariners +125||Top||4-5||Win||125||16 h 2 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Mariners +125
Huge value here with Seattle as a relatively big home dog against the Cardinals. Mariners come in having lost 4 straight, but no way should St Louis be getting this much love. Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last 6 and will send out the struggling Jack Flaherty, who has a awful 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.68 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in 7 road starts this season.
Cardinals have lost 8 of Flaherty's last 11 road starts and are just 1-5 in his last 6 interleague outings. Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 at home.
Solid system in play here on Seattle. Home teams that are hitting .190 or worse over their last 5 games and are facing another cold-hitting team that is hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 are 43-17 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Seattle!
|07-01-19||Brewers v. Reds +104||Top||8-6||Loss||-100||12 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +104
Easy play here on the Reds at home in Monday's series opener against the Brewers. Cincinnati just took 2 of 3 at home against the Cubs over the weekend and scored 14 runs in the process. Brewers also won their series at home over the weekend against Pittsburgh, but they managed just 7 run in those 3 games.
It continued Milwaukee's struggles at the plate. Brewers have scored 4 or fewer runs now in 6 straight games. Won't be easy getting back on track against Reds' starter Tyler Mahle, who has a strong 3.29 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mahle also owns a 2.53 ERA in 2 career starts (both last year) against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is sending out Adrian Houser, who has made 3 starts and it hasn't been pretty. Houser owns a 9.00 ERA and 2.500 WHIP, as he's given up 8 runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in a mere 8 innings of work. Take Cincinnati!
|06-30-19||Royals +117 v. Blue Jays||Top||7-6||Win||117||7 h 55 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider Top Play on Royals +117
Kansas City is worth a look here as a road dog against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Royals are going to be highly motivated here after losing the first two game of the series. I also think it's worth a shot here to fade Toronto starter Aaron Sanchez at this price.
Sanchez is a mere 3-10 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in 17 starts overall. He's 0-3 with an awful 15.75 ERA and 2.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sanchez allowed at least 7 runs in all 3 of those outings. Take Kansas City!
|06-29-19||Cardinals +121 v. Padres||Top||2-12||Loss||-100||16 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Cardinals +121
Absolutely love the value here with St Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Padres on Saturday. San Diego won the series opener 3-1 on Friday, but that was a big flat spot for St Louis in their first game on the west coast after a long homestand.
I look for a much more focused and energized Cardinals team on Saturday and they got just the guy on the mound to get them out of their funk. Dakota Hudson is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 15 starts. He's trending even better with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3. Guy has made 8 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs and went at least 6 innings.
Padres will counter with Chris Paddack, who seems to be hitting a bit of a slump after a great start to 2019. Paddack has an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's averaging over strikeout/9 innings, yet only recorded 1 K in his last outing at Pittsburgh.
Padres have lost each of his last 4 starts and the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in Hudson's last 7 starts. Take St Louis!
|06-28-19||Braves v. Mets -124||Top||6-2||Loss||-124||13 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Mets -124
Easy play here on the Mets as a small home favorite with ace and reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound. It's exactly who New York needs on the mound to put an end to their 5-game losing streak. Big thing to note is all 5 losses were on the road. Mets are a strong 20-14 at home this season and have won 12 of their 16 at home vs a right-handed starter.
deGrom had his struggles early on, but is back in form. He's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Braves with a ridiculous 1.88 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 19 career starts vs Atlanta. Take New York!
|06-27-19||A's +145 v. Angels||Top||3-8||Loss||-100||16 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on A's +145
Love the value here with Oakland as a big road dog against the Angels. A's have really been playing well of late. Oakland just swept a short 2-game series at St Louis and are now 7-2 in their last 9 games. Angels are off a couple of wins against Cincinnati, but that's nothing to get excited about.
A's are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a dominant 12-4 in their last 16 series openers. I know LA has a strong starter in Canning going, but A's are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs an AL starter with a WHIP less than 1.200. Take Oakland!
|06-26-19||Mets +135 v. Phillies||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* MLB - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +135
Absolutely love the value here with the Mets as a decently priced road dog against the Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two of the series, but it has them way overvalued in this one. Phillies will send out Nick Pivetta, who has an awful 5.84 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 6 home starts. Pivetta also owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets.
New York will counter with Jason Vargas, who has a strong 3.20 ERA in 12 starts this season. Even more important is how well Vargas has pitched against the Phillies. He's made 4 career starts against them and has a 2.57 era and 1.143 WHIP. Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 after losing the first 2 games of a series. Philadelphia is 2-8 in Pivetta's last 10 starts vs a division opponent. Take New York!
|06-25-19||A's v. Cardinals -127||Top||7-3||Loss||-127||14 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Cardinals -127
Love the value here with St Louis as a relatively small home favorite against the A's. Cardinals are 7-4 in their last 11 and come in having scored 4 or more in 4 straight games.
St Louis will send out Jack Flaherty to start this one. If you just look at Flaherty's overall numbers you might miss the value here, as he's just 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 15 starts. Flaherty is simply a different pitcher at home compared to on the road, as he's got a 2.49 ERA and sensational 0.830 WHIP with 53 strikeouts in 47 innings over 8 home starts.
St Louis is a perfect 10-0 this season at home vs great power teams that are averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game, while A's are 3-13 in their last 16 vs an NL team that is scoring 4.5 or more runs/game. Take St Louis!
|06-24-19||Dodgers -133 v. Diamondbacks||Top||5-8||Loss||-133||16 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -133
Easy play here on the Dodgers as a small road favorite. LA comes in having won 6 straight and are off a 3-game sweep against the Rockies, where they won all 3 games in walk-off fashion. Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7 and while they won yesterday at SF, they scored just 3 runs in the process.
Offense just isn't clicking right now and it's hard to see them snapping out of that funk against Clayton Kershaw, who is 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Diamondbacks will have their ace on the mound in Zack Greinke, but he's coming off a start at home where he gave up 5 runs to the Rockies. Greinke also allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in 3 2/3 innings in his only start vs LA this season.
Dodgers are 56-13 in Kershaw's last 69 starts vs a division opponent and 43-16 in his last 59 during game 1 of a series. Take Los Angeles!
|06-23-19||Rockies v. Dodgers -208||Top||3-6||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Dodgers -208
I got zero problem laying the big juice with Los Angeles on the road against the Rockies. LA is the best team in the NL and have Kenta Maeda starting at home, where he is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.757 WHIP in 6 starts.
Maeda has also owned Colorado in his career. He's faced them 9 times as a starter and owns a sensational 2.56 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. Chances are Maeda will hold form, but even if he's not at his best he should get plenty of runs support. Rockies are countering with Antonio Senzatela, who has a ERA over 5.00 in 13 starts and a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his only start against the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles!
|06-22-19||Braves +115 v. Nationals||Top||13-9||Win||115||13 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +115
Love the value here with Atlanta as a small road dog against the Nationals. Washington has won 5 straight, but will send out Anibal Sanchez. He's just 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 13 starts. Braves are a solid 21-13 in their last 34 on the road after losing 2 of their previous 3. They are also a dominant 9-1 in their last 10 off a 1-run loss.
Braves will have Mike Foltynewiczs will start for Atlanta and he's pitched well against the Nationals in his career and Atlanta is a 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs a division opponent. Take Atlanta!
|06-21-19||Astros +145 v. Yankees||Top||1-4||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros +145
Really like the value here with Houston as a big road dog against the Yankees. Astros are due for a win to say the least, as they come in having lost 5 straight. New York on the other hand is due for a loss after winning 6 straight.
That's not all. Yankees starter, James Paxton, has a 7.42 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time he started at home, he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 2 2/3 innings. Astros will send out Brad Peacock, who has a strong 3.77 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 13 starts.
Astros are 8-3 in Peacock's last 11 road starts vs a team with a winning record and are 37-14 in their last 51 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Houston!
|06-20-19||Angels v. Blue Jays +140||Top||5-7||Win||140||12 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +140
Love the Blue Jays here as a home dog against the Angels. I won on the Angels each of the last two days, but now is the time to shift gears and take the other side. Toronto is going to be extremely motivated here to avoid getting swept in this 4-game series with LA.
Big flat spot for LA. Angels won 11-6 on Wednesday and Toronto is 12-5 in their last 17 home games after allowing 9 or more runs. LA is also a mere 2-10 in their last 12 vs a starter that is winless after 5 or more starts. Clayton Richard is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in 5 starts. However, Richard was outstanding last year against the Angels, giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits in 8 innings. Take Toronto!
|06-19-19||Astros -166 v. Reds||Top||2-3||Loss||-166||5 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB - Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Astros -166
I'm confident the Astros will secure a road win at Cincinnati. Houston enters having lost 3 straight, but they are going to get a huge boost here with the return of Jose Altuve. Anytime you add a MVP-type player back into your lineup, it provides a spark to the other players.
It doesn't hurt that Houston will also have the edge on the mound. Astros send out the surging Gerrit Cole, who has a solid but not great 3.67 ERA in 15 starts. However, Cole has been elite here of late. Last two starts he's given up a mere 3 earned runs on 7 hits with 24 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Tyler Mahle will start for the Reds and he's headed in the other direction. Mahle has a 5.65 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Houston!
|06-18-19||Angels -107 v. Blue Jays||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels -107
Easy play here on the Angels as a small favorite at Toronto. Los Angeles is a team to watch out for right now. Angels just got back Justin Upton and not that long ago Ohtani was added to the mix. Upton homered in his first at-bat back and Ohtani has been red-hot of late. I look for that offense to be able to get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman.
Not only do I see the Angels putting up a big number, Toronto's offense is one of the worst in the league. Especially at home. Blue Jays are only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on their home field this season. Tyler Skaggs of LA hasn't been great, but Toronto is just 17-43 in their last 16 vs a left-handed starter and are 3-7 in Stroman's last 10 home starts. Take Los Angeles!
|06-17-19||Astros v. Reds -110||Top||2-3||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Reds -110
I got no problem backing the Reds as a small home favorite against the Astros. Not very often you see Houston as a dog, especially against a team with a losing record. That speaks volumes to the respect the books have for Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo and rightfully so.
Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.090 WHIP over 14 starts and has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 7 home starts. He's definitely catching a break in this one, as Houston is minus 3 of their best players in Altuve, Correa and Springer (all on IL).
Also got to love the Reds coming into this game off a big offensive performance, as they scored 11 runs in yesterday's 8-run win over the Rangers. Astros starter, Wade Miley, has a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 7 road starts. Take Cincinnati!
|06-16-19||Cubs v. Dodgers -162||Top||2-3||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
5* MLB - Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -162
The Dodgers are an easy play for me on Sunday Night Baseball against the Cubs. Chicago won on Saturday, barely squeaking out a 2-1 win. LA had won the first two in the series behind strong offensive showings.
Look for them to get back on track agains the struggling Jose Quintana. It's been a big struggle for Quintana when he's not starting at Wrigley Field. He's a mere 1-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has to be your early Cy Young favorite. Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.802 WHIP over 13 starts. He's a perfect 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in 6 home starts. Take Los Angeles!
|06-15-19||Rangers +110 v. Reds||Top||4-3||Win||110||11 h 22 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +110
Easy play here on Texas as a road dog against the slumping Reds. Not sure what the books are seeing in Cincinnati in this one. Reds lost 7-1 in the series opener last night and are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
Biggest problem for Cincinnati is the offense. Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of those 10 games. Hard to see them snapping out of their slump against the likes of the Rangers Mike Minor. In 14 starts so far in 2019, Minor has posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.175 WHIP and he's stayed true to form of late with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Key here is the Rangers can score. Texas has put up 4 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Red starter Tanner Roark has a not so great 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Texas!
|06-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals -165||Top||3-7||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nationals -165
I got no problem here laying the big juice with the Nationals at home on Friday. Washington will have ace and 3x Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer had a bit of a slow start to 2019, but it's safe to say he's back to his elite form. Scherzer has a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts, lowering his season ERA down to 2.83.
Scherzer has also tormented the team that drafted him way back in 2006. He's 6-0 with a 2.89 ERA in six stars against the Diamondbacks. It's the exact opposite for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who was drafted by the Nationals, but is 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA in 5 starts against Washington. Take the Nationals!
|06-13-19||Tigers -122 v. Royals||Top||3-7||Loss||-122||12 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers -122
Easy play here on Detroit in a rare neutral site game in the MLB. These will kickoff the festivities at the 2019 College World Series with a game at Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park. Some might find it tough betting on a matchup of two bad teams, but there's too much value here to pass up with the Tigers.
Detroit has one of the better starters that people don't know about on the mound. Matt Boyd's 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA might not seem like anything special, but this guy has elite swing and miss stuff. Boyd has 105 strikeouts in 84.7 innings. What makes him special is he doesn't walk people with just 15 free passes on the season. In his last 3 starts he has a ridiculous 25/1 K/BB ratio.
Royals aren't a great offensive team, so Boyd should be able to keep them well in check. All we need is for the Tigers offense to put up some runs. They should be able to do just that, as KC will send out Homer Bailey and his 5.90 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 13 starts. Take Detroit!
|06-12-19||Reds v. Indians -117||Top||7-2||Loss||-117||5 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Indians -117
Easy play here on Cleveland as a small home favorite. Indians will have little known Zach Plesac on the mound and that's where the value stems from in this one. Plesac has only made 3 big league starts, all 3 since joining the rotation in late May.
He's been outstanding, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 3 starts, which includes a road start at Boston and a start at home against the Yankees. Plesac will be up against a Reds offense that would struggle to hit a ball off a tee right now. Cincinnati scored just 1 run in yesterday's loss and have scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 with a 4 run outburst being their best during this stretch.
Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs/game over their last 7 and will be up against Anthony Desclafani. He's got a 4.70 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 12 starts and a 5.02 ERA and 1.674 over his last 3 outings. Take Cleveland!
|06-11-19||Diamondbacks +122 v. Phillies||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks +122
I'm all over the Diamondbacks as a road dog against the Phillies on Tuesday. Arizona is playing too well to not take a shot on them at this price. Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 13-8 on Monday for their 5th straight win. Arizona has 4 straight games with 10 or more hits and at least 6 runs.
That offense will be up against a struggling Jake Arrieta, who has 6.11 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Arrieta has given up 10 runs on 17 hits (5 HRs) and 6 walks in his last 2 starts. While Arizona's offense figures to stay hot, I think Jon Duplantier has the stuff to keep the Phillies in check, at least enough to get the win.
Dbacks have won 7 straight on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phillies are just 1-5 in their last 6 off a loss and have lost 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record. Take Arizona!
|06-10-19||Dodgers -162 v. Angels||Top||3-5||Loss||-162||15 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Dodgers -162
I got no problem laying a little juice with Dodgers in Monday's series opener against their cross-town rivals. Not only are the Dodgers the better team, but they got arguably the Cy Young frontrunner on the mound in Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also coming into this one in prime form, as he hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts.
Angels have not hit left handed starters well this season. They have gone just 9-16 in games where they face a left-handed starter and are scoring just 4.4 runs/game and hitting .249 as a team. Angels are also 0-11 in their last 11 vs a NL starting pitcher with an WHIP of 1.15 or better. LA is also 4-14 in their last 18 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game. Dodgers are 41-14 in Ryu's last 58 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the Dodgers!
|06-09-19||Reds +123 v. Phillies||Top||4-3||Win||123||6 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Reds +123
I absolutely love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog on Sunday. Phillies have won the first two games of the series and 4 in a row overall. Most will look to take Philadelphia, especially with ace Aaron Nola on the mound.
However, Nola hasn't been anything close to an elite starter in 2019, despite a solid 6-1 record. Nola owns a 4.63 ERA and atrocious 1.529 WHIP in 13 starts. In his last start he was just rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings of work at San Diego.
While the Phillies will send out one of the more overrated right now, Reds will have one of the more underrated arms on the mound in Sonny Gray. In 12 starts, Gray owns a strong 3.39 ERA and 1.213 WHIP. Gray also has a sizzling 2.89 ERA in 5 road starts and a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Cincinnati!
|06-08-19||White Sox v. Royals +119||Top||2-0||Loss||-100||6 h 3 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Royals +119
Kansas City snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 6-4 win at home against the White Sox on Friday. Royals have struggled to score runs this season, but have now scored 11 on 24 hits in their last 2 games. I look for KC to stay hot and find a way to get to Chicago starter Lucas Giolito.
I know Giolito is coming off a strong May, but I'm not convinced he's completely turned the corner into elite status. He's due for a bad outing. White Sox have also now lost 6 straight on the road and are a mere 8-21 in their last 29 vs a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30.
Royals' Brad Keller has a strong 3.46 ERA in 7 starts against the White Sox, including a 3.00 ERA in 4 starts versus them this season. KC is 15-7 in their last 22 at home vs a team with a losing record. Take Kansas City!
|06-05-19||Yankees v. Blue Jays +185||Top||7-11||Win||185||11 h 55 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +185
I really like the value here with Toronto as a massive home dog against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over New York on Tuesday. Toronto took down Tanaka in that one and now they are ready to take aim at James Paxton.
While Paxton owns a sensational 2.81 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 8 starts, he's got an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in 3 road starts. Toronto will counter with Trent Thornton, who has been a lot better than the numbers would suggest.
Adding even more value is a great system in play to fade New York. Favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 1.5 or more homers/game are just 72-102 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a hefty 59% system on an underdog to win outright. Take Toronto!
|06-04-19||Marlins v. Brewers -168||Top||16-0||Loss||-168||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Brewers -168
Easy play here on Milwaukee as a big home favorite against the Marlins. Brewers won each of their final 2 games against the Padres by a score of 9-3. Milwaukee is averaging 5.6 runs/game and hitting .285 as a team over their last 7 games. That red-hot offense will be up against the likes of Pablo Lopez, who is an atrocious 1-4 with a 8.26 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Brewers will counter with Chase Anderson, who has returned from injury in prime form. While Anderson has struggled to go deep in games, he has a strong 2.78 ERA in 5 starts. Not going deep in games is also not a problem with Milwaukee and their strong bullpen, which should be close to full strength after a day off on Monday.
Brewers are 7-2 in Anderson's last 9 home starts vs a team with a losing record, 20-7 as a team in their last 27 vs an opponent that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. Take Milwaukee!
|06-03-19||Phillies v. Padres +126||Top||2-8||Win||126||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Padres +126
Easy play on the Padres as a home dog against the Phillies in Monday's series opener. Philadelphia is getting way too much love in this spot because of the perceived edge on the mound with ace Aaron Nola starting.
Nola has a perfect 6-0 record, but owns a very mediocre 4.18 ERA and 1.484 WHIP. That incldues an awful 5.85 ERA in 4 road starts. Phillies as a team also come in having lost 4 straight and a big reason for their recent struggles is the offense isn't producing. Philadelphia scored 3 or fewer in all 4 losses and were shutout on Sunday.
Padres will counter here with Eric Lauer, who I really like in this spot. Lauer has been outstanding at home with a 2.67 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 6 starts. He's also trending in the right direction with a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take San Diego!
|06-02-19||Mets v. Diamondbacks -110||Top||1-7||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Diamondbacks -110
It took a couple extra innings, but Arizona pulled out a 6-5 win in 11 innings on Saturday to snap a 5-game losing streak. I'm confident the Diamondbacks will ride the momentum from yesterday's win to a victory on Sunday.
Arizona will have Merrill Kelly on the mound and while he's coming off a poor start at Colorado, he's got a sensational 2.64 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 6 road starts. Also, don't be fooled by his 2.87 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's got an atrocious 1.659 WHIP during that stretch.
New York is just 6-20 in their last 26 road games, 3-11 in their last 14 during Game 3 of a series and 1-6 in Matz's last 7 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Arizona!
|06-01-19||Mets v. Diamondbacks -103||Top||5-6||Win||100||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Diamondbacks -103
I love the matchup and value we are getting with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 12 starts overall. As good as that is, and that's really good, he's even better at home. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 home starts.
I get the Mets have reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound, but he's not been the same guy in 2019. New York is a mere 4-7 in his last 11 starts and he comes in with a 5.06 ERA and 1.375 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Mets have also lost each of his last 4 road starts. Take Arizona!
|05-31-19||Tigers +155 v. Braves||Top||8-2||Win||155||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague 'No Limit' PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tigers +155
Absolutely love the value here with Detroit as a huge road dog against the Braves. It's all about the edge on the mound in this one. Tigers will turn to Spencer Turnbull, who is one of the most underrated starters in the game because he not only has a mere 2-4 record, but because he's on a bad team.
Turnbull owns a sensational 2.97 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 starts. He will be up against Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 5.67 ERA in 6 starts overall and a 6.75 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 4 home starts. Braves have lost 7 of his last 8 starts and are a miserable 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs a right-handed starter. Take Detroit!