|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-15-19||Dodgers -160 v. Phillies||Top||16-2||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Dodgers -160
Easy play here on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener against the Phillies. LA got rocked the first game back from the All-Star break, but responded by winning the final two over the weeked against the Red Sox, scoring 18 runs on 23 hits.
Dodgers will have veteran ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound, who is 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 15 starts. He'll be facing a Phillies offense that managed just 7 runs in their series at home against Washington over the weekend.
Phillies will also be sending out the struggling Zach Eflin, who has a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eflin has also not enjoyed facing the Dodgers, as he's 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in 4 starts (0-4 team record). Take Los Angeles!
|07-14-19||Tigers +142 v. Royals||Top||12-8||Win||142||7 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers +142
Love this spot and price with Detroit as a road dog against division rival KC. Tigers will have veteran Jordan Zimmerman on the mound and he's owned the Royals in his career. Zimmerman is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in 8 starts versus Kansas City.
Royals will send out Homer Bailey, who has a very mediocre 4.80 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 18 starts. KC is just 1-4 in his last 5 when he starts Game 3 of a series. Royals are also a mere 6-21 in their last 27 following a win and have lost 24 of their last 33 games played on Sunday. Take Detroit!
|07-13-19||Reds +114 v. Rockies||Top||17-9||Win||114||16 h 52 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds +114
Love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog against the Rockies on Saturday. I just don't trust Colorado starter Kyle Freeland. I know the guy was great last year, finishing 4th in the Cy Young, but he's simply not the same guy in 2019.
Freeland had a 10.17 ERA in 6 starts in May and was demoted to the minors, where he's spent 6 weeks trying to figure things out. For the most part the struggles continued. I would much rather take my chances with Reds starter Tanner Roark, who is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 9 road starts this season. Take Cincinnati!
|07-12-19||White Sox +173 v. A's||Top||1-5||Loss||-100||15 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on White Sox +173
Easy play here on Chicago as a massive road dog against the A's on Friday. You might be thinking White Sox starter Ivan Nova is a guy you want to fade, given he's just 4-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 18 starts.
However, Nova went into the break with a strong 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 4 starts vs the A's and Chicago is 5-1 this season when he starts as a dog of +150 or more. White Sox are also 4-1 in Nova's last 5 starts to open a series. Take Chicago!
|07-11-19||Astros -131 v. Rangers||Top||0-5||Loss||-131||12 h 9 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -131
There might be some that are hesitant to back the Astros because they will be starting Framber Valdez, who is a mere 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 4 starts. Valdez does have a a much more respectable 4.57 ERA on the season, as he has also made 14 relief appearances. Keep in mind this is also the same guy that had a sensational 2.19 ERA over 5 starts and 3 relief appearances last year.
The price is simply too good to pass up. Houston is 70-32 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons and are a dominant 20-8 this year as a favorite of -100 to -150 (home & away). Not to mention they are 26-7 vs other AL West teams this season. Take Houston!
|07-09-19||National League v. American League -108||Top||3-4||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - All-Star Game VEGAS INSIDER on American League -108
When you factor in just how dominant the AL has been in this All-Star Game, this is just too good a price to pass up. American League has won 6 straight and are 24-6-1 in the last 31 meetings. Not to say the NL roster doesn't have great players, I just think top to bottom the AL is hands down the better team. Take the American League!
|07-07-19||Brewers v. Pirates +105||Top||5-6||Win||105||6 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +105
Pittsburgh should have no problem here going into the All-Star break with a win at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee has not been playing well and likely need some time off to get back on track. Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5. After scoring just 2 runs on Saturday, Milwaukee has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.
Hard to see them snapping out of that funk against the red-hot arm of Pirates starter Joe Musgrave. He's got a 0.56 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While the Brewers are struggling to score, Pittsburgh comes in averaging 7.3 runs/game and are hitting .333 as a team over their last 7.
Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 following a win. Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 1-4 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh!
|07-06-19||A's v. Mariners +125||Top||3-6||Win||125||15 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Mariners +125
This is the ideal spot for Seattle to snap out of their funk and get a big win at home against division rival Oakland. Mariners will send out Marco Gonzales for this one and he's trending in the right direction with a 3.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even more important is Gonzales' strong track record against the A's, as he's 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 5 career starts.
Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt, who has an ERA north of 4.00 in his last 3 starts and is 0-3 in 5 starts (1-4 team record) against the Mariners. Bassit faced Seattle back in June and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss. Gonzalez was the opposing starter, and allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings.
Mariners are 17-8 in Gonzales' last 25 starts with a money line of -125 to +125. A's are 1-6 in Bassit's last 7 during Game 2 of a series and 0-6 in his last 6 starts on Saturday. Take Seattle!
|07-05-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays -121||Top||4-1||Loss||-121||12 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays -121
As difficult as it may be to back Toronto with Aaron Sanchez on the mound, I like Sanchez to deliver the goods and for the Blue Jays to secure an easy win at home against division rival Baltimore.
Orioles are simply the ideal team to fade on the road, no matter who is on the mound for the opposing team. Baltimore is 14-30 away from home this season, where they are getting outscored by 1.7 runs/game.
Let's also not overlook how poor Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy has been of late. He's 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Orioles are just 4-12 in his 16 starts this season. O's have also dropped 12 straight when Bundy starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Toronto!
|07-04-19||Brewers v. Reds +120||Top||0-1||Win||120||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +120
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a home dog. Reds have won 4 of 6 and have scored 5 or more in 4 of those games. No way should they be a dog here at home with the likes of Luis Castillo on the mound. Castillo is one of the best starters in the game. He's 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 17 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 9 home starts.
Milwaukee will send out Brandon Woodruff, who has a 4.29 ERA in 7 road starts and an ugly 8.68 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Reds. Brewers are just 1-5 in their lat 6 on the road and 1-4 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Castillo's last 14 at home in this spot. Take Cincinnati!
|07-02-19||Cardinals v. Mariners +125||Top||4-5||Win||125||16 h 2 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Mariners +125
Huge value here with Seattle as a relatively big home dog against the Cardinals. Mariners come in having lost 4 straight, but no way should St Louis be getting this much love. Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last 6 and will send out the struggling Jack Flaherty, who has a awful 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.68 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in 7 road starts this season.
Cardinals have lost 8 of Flaherty's last 11 road starts and are just 1-5 in his last 6 interleague outings. Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 at home.
Solid system in play here on Seattle. Home teams that are hitting .190 or worse over their last 5 games and are facing another cold-hitting team that is hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 are 43-17 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Seattle!
|07-01-19||Brewers v. Reds +104||Top||8-6||Loss||-100||12 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +104
Easy play here on the Reds at home in Monday's series opener against the Brewers. Cincinnati just took 2 of 3 at home against the Cubs over the weekend and scored 14 runs in the process. Brewers also won their series at home over the weekend against Pittsburgh, but they managed just 7 run in those 3 games.
It continued Milwaukee's struggles at the plate. Brewers have scored 4 or fewer runs now in 6 straight games. Won't be easy getting back on track against Reds' starter Tyler Mahle, who has a strong 3.29 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mahle also owns a 2.53 ERA in 2 career starts (both last year) against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is sending out Adrian Houser, who has made 3 starts and it hasn't been pretty. Houser owns a 9.00 ERA and 2.500 WHIP, as he's given up 8 runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in a mere 8 innings of work. Take Cincinnati!
|06-30-19||Royals +117 v. Blue Jays||Top||7-6||Win||117||7 h 55 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider Top Play on Royals +117
Kansas City is worth a look here as a road dog against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Royals are going to be highly motivated here after losing the first two game of the series. I also think it's worth a shot here to fade Toronto starter Aaron Sanchez at this price.
Sanchez is a mere 3-10 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in 17 starts overall. He's 0-3 with an awful 15.75 ERA and 2.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sanchez allowed at least 7 runs in all 3 of those outings. Take Kansas City!
|06-29-19||Cardinals +121 v. Padres||Top||2-12||Loss||-100||16 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Cardinals +121
Absolutely love the value here with St Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Padres on Saturday. San Diego won the series opener 3-1 on Friday, but that was a big flat spot for St Louis in their first game on the west coast after a long homestand.
I look for a much more focused and energized Cardinals team on Saturday and they got just the guy on the mound to get them out of their funk. Dakota Hudson is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 15 starts. He's trending even better with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3. Guy has made 8 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs and went at least 6 innings.
Padres will counter with Chris Paddack, who seems to be hitting a bit of a slump after a great start to 2019. Paddack has an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's averaging over strikeout/9 innings, yet only recorded 1 K in his last outing at Pittsburgh.
Padres have lost each of his last 4 starts and the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in Hudson's last 7 starts. Take St Louis!
|06-28-19||Braves v. Mets -124||Top||6-2||Loss||-124||13 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Mets -124
Easy play here on the Mets as a small home favorite with ace and reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound. It's exactly who New York needs on the mound to put an end to their 5-game losing streak. Big thing to note is all 5 losses were on the road. Mets are a strong 20-14 at home this season and have won 12 of their 16 at home vs a right-handed starter.
deGrom had his struggles early on, but is back in form. He's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Braves with a ridiculous 1.88 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 19 career starts vs Atlanta. Take New York!
|06-27-19||A's +145 v. Angels||Top||3-8||Loss||-100||16 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on A's +145
Love the value here with Oakland as a big road dog against the Angels. A's have really been playing well of late. Oakland just swept a short 2-game series at St Louis and are now 7-2 in their last 9 games. Angels are off a couple of wins against Cincinnati, but that's nothing to get excited about.
A's are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a dominant 12-4 in their last 16 series openers. I know LA has a strong starter in Canning going, but A's are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs an AL starter with a WHIP less than 1.200. Take Oakland!
|06-26-19||Mets +135 v. Phillies||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* MLB - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +135
Absolutely love the value here with the Mets as a decently priced road dog against the Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two of the series, but it has them way overvalued in this one. Phillies will send out Nick Pivetta, who has an awful 5.84 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 6 home starts. Pivetta also owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets.
New York will counter with Jason Vargas, who has a strong 3.20 ERA in 12 starts this season. Even more important is how well Vargas has pitched against the Phillies. He's made 4 career starts against them and has a 2.57 era and 1.143 WHIP. Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 after losing the first 2 games of a series. Philadelphia is 2-8 in Pivetta's last 10 starts vs a division opponent. Take New York!
|06-25-19||A's v. Cardinals -127||Top||7-3||Loss||-127||14 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Cardinals -127
Love the value here with St Louis as a relatively small home favorite against the A's. Cardinals are 7-4 in their last 11 and come in having scored 4 or more in 4 straight games.
St Louis will send out Jack Flaherty to start this one. If you just look at Flaherty's overall numbers you might miss the value here, as he's just 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 15 starts. Flaherty is simply a different pitcher at home compared to on the road, as he's got a 2.49 ERA and sensational 0.830 WHIP with 53 strikeouts in 47 innings over 8 home starts.
St Louis is a perfect 10-0 this season at home vs great power teams that are averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game, while A's are 3-13 in their last 16 vs an NL team that is scoring 4.5 or more runs/game. Take St Louis!
|06-24-19||Dodgers -133 v. Diamondbacks||Top||5-8||Loss||-133||16 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -133
Easy play here on the Dodgers as a small road favorite. LA comes in having won 6 straight and are off a 3-game sweep against the Rockies, where they won all 3 games in walk-off fashion. Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7 and while they won yesterday at SF, they scored just 3 runs in the process.
Offense just isn't clicking right now and it's hard to see them snapping out of that funk against Clayton Kershaw, who is 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Diamondbacks will have their ace on the mound in Zack Greinke, but he's coming off a start at home where he gave up 5 runs to the Rockies. Greinke also allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in 3 2/3 innings in his only start vs LA this season.
Dodgers are 56-13 in Kershaw's last 69 starts vs a division opponent and 43-16 in his last 59 during game 1 of a series. Take Los Angeles!
|06-23-19||Rockies v. Dodgers -208||Top||3-6||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Dodgers -208
I got zero problem laying the big juice with Los Angeles on the road against the Rockies. LA is the best team in the NL and have Kenta Maeda starting at home, where he is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.757 WHIP in 6 starts.
Maeda has also owned Colorado in his career. He's faced them 9 times as a starter and owns a sensational 2.56 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. Chances are Maeda will hold form, but even if he's not at his best he should get plenty of runs support. Rockies are countering with Antonio Senzatela, who has a ERA over 5.00 in 13 starts and a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his only start against the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles!
|06-22-19||Braves +115 v. Nationals||Top||13-9||Win||115||13 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +115
Love the value here with Atlanta as a small road dog against the Nationals. Washington has won 5 straight, but will send out Anibal Sanchez. He's just 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 13 starts. Braves are a solid 21-13 in their last 34 on the road after losing 2 of their previous 3. They are also a dominant 9-1 in their last 10 off a 1-run loss.
Braves will have Mike Foltynewiczs will start for Atlanta and he's pitched well against the Nationals in his career and Atlanta is a 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs a division opponent. Take Atlanta!
|06-21-19||Astros +145 v. Yankees||Top||1-4||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros +145
Really like the value here with Houston as a big road dog against the Yankees. Astros are due for a win to say the least, as they come in having lost 5 straight. New York on the other hand is due for a loss after winning 6 straight.
That's not all. Yankees starter, James Paxton, has a 7.42 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time he started at home, he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 2 2/3 innings. Astros will send out Brad Peacock, who has a strong 3.77 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 13 starts.
Astros are 8-3 in Peacock's last 11 road starts vs a team with a winning record and are 37-14 in their last 51 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Houston!
|06-20-19||Angels v. Blue Jays +140||Top||5-7||Win||140||12 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +140
Love the Blue Jays here as a home dog against the Angels. I won on the Angels each of the last two days, but now is the time to shift gears and take the other side. Toronto is going to be extremely motivated here to avoid getting swept in this 4-game series with LA.
Big flat spot for LA. Angels won 11-6 on Wednesday and Toronto is 12-5 in their last 17 home games after allowing 9 or more runs. LA is also a mere 2-10 in their last 12 vs a starter that is winless after 5 or more starts. Clayton Richard is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in 5 starts. However, Richard was outstanding last year against the Angels, giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits in 8 innings. Take Toronto!
|06-19-19||Astros -166 v. Reds||Top||2-3||Loss||-166||5 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB - Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Astros -166
I'm confident the Astros will secure a road win at Cincinnati. Houston enters having lost 3 straight, but they are going to get a huge boost here with the return of Jose Altuve. Anytime you add a MVP-type player back into your lineup, it provides a spark to the other players.
It doesn't hurt that Houston will also have the edge on the mound. Astros send out the surging Gerrit Cole, who has a solid but not great 3.67 ERA in 15 starts. However, Cole has been elite here of late. Last two starts he's given up a mere 3 earned runs on 7 hits with 24 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Tyler Mahle will start for the Reds and he's headed in the other direction. Mahle has a 5.65 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Houston!
|06-18-19||Angels -107 v. Blue Jays||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels -107
Easy play here on the Angels as a small favorite at Toronto. Los Angeles is a team to watch out for right now. Angels just got back Justin Upton and not that long ago Ohtani was added to the mix. Upton homered in his first at-bat back and Ohtani has been red-hot of late. I look for that offense to be able to get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman.
Not only do I see the Angels putting up a big number, Toronto's offense is one of the worst in the league. Especially at home. Blue Jays are only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on their home field this season. Tyler Skaggs of LA hasn't been great, but Toronto is just 17-43 in their last 16 vs a left-handed starter and are 3-7 in Stroman's last 10 home starts. Take Los Angeles!
|06-17-19||Astros v. Reds -110||Top||2-3||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Reds -110
I got no problem backing the Reds as a small home favorite against the Astros. Not very often you see Houston as a dog, especially against a team with a losing record. That speaks volumes to the respect the books have for Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo and rightfully so.
Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.090 WHIP over 14 starts and has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 7 home starts. He's definitely catching a break in this one, as Houston is minus 3 of their best players in Altuve, Correa and Springer (all on IL).
Also got to love the Reds coming into this game off a big offensive performance, as they scored 11 runs in yesterday's 8-run win over the Rangers. Astros starter, Wade Miley, has a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 7 road starts. Take Cincinnati!
|06-16-19||Cubs v. Dodgers -162||Top||2-3||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
5* MLB - Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -162
The Dodgers are an easy play for me on Sunday Night Baseball against the Cubs. Chicago won on Saturday, barely squeaking out a 2-1 win. LA had won the first two in the series behind strong offensive showings.
Look for them to get back on track agains the struggling Jose Quintana. It's been a big struggle for Quintana when he's not starting at Wrigley Field. He's a mere 1-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has to be your early Cy Young favorite. Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.802 WHIP over 13 starts. He's a perfect 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in 6 home starts. Take Los Angeles!
|06-15-19||Rangers +110 v. Reds||Top||4-3||Win||110||11 h 22 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +110
Easy play here on Texas as a road dog against the slumping Reds. Not sure what the books are seeing in Cincinnati in this one. Reds lost 7-1 in the series opener last night and are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
Biggest problem for Cincinnati is the offense. Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of those 10 games. Hard to see them snapping out of their slump against the likes of the Rangers Mike Minor. In 14 starts so far in 2019, Minor has posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.175 WHIP and he's stayed true to form of late with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Key here is the Rangers can score. Texas has put up 4 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Red starter Tanner Roark has a not so great 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Texas!
|06-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals -165||Top||3-7||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nationals -165
I got no problem here laying the big juice with the Nationals at home on Friday. Washington will have ace and 3x Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer had a bit of a slow start to 2019, but it's safe to say he's back to his elite form. Scherzer has a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts, lowering his season ERA down to 2.83.
Scherzer has also tormented the team that drafted him way back in 2006. He's 6-0 with a 2.89 ERA in six stars against the Diamondbacks. It's the exact opposite for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who was drafted by the Nationals, but is 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA in 5 starts against Washington. Take the Nationals!
|06-13-19||Tigers -122 v. Royals||Top||3-7||Loss||-122||12 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers -122
Easy play here on Detroit in a rare neutral site game in the MLB. These will kickoff the festivities at the 2019 College World Series with a game at Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park. Some might find it tough betting on a matchup of two bad teams, but there's too much value here to pass up with the Tigers.
Detroit has one of the better starters that people don't know about on the mound. Matt Boyd's 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA might not seem like anything special, but this guy has elite swing and miss stuff. Boyd has 105 strikeouts in 84.7 innings. What makes him special is he doesn't walk people with just 15 free passes on the season. In his last 3 starts he has a ridiculous 25/1 K/BB ratio.
Royals aren't a great offensive team, so Boyd should be able to keep them well in check. All we need is for the Tigers offense to put up some runs. They should be able to do just that, as KC will send out Homer Bailey and his 5.90 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 13 starts. Take Detroit!
|06-12-19||Reds v. Indians -117||Top||7-2||Loss||-117||5 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Indians -117
Easy play here on Cleveland as a small home favorite. Indians will have little known Zach Plesac on the mound and that's where the value stems from in this one. Plesac has only made 3 big league starts, all 3 since joining the rotation in late May.
He's been outstanding, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 3 starts, which includes a road start at Boston and a start at home against the Yankees. Plesac will be up against a Reds offense that would struggle to hit a ball off a tee right now. Cincinnati scored just 1 run in yesterday's loss and have scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 with a 4 run outburst being their best during this stretch.
Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs/game over their last 7 and will be up against Anthony Desclafani. He's got a 4.70 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 12 starts and a 5.02 ERA and 1.674 over his last 3 outings. Take Cleveland!
|06-11-19||Diamondbacks +122 v. Phillies||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks +122
I'm all over the Diamondbacks as a road dog against the Phillies on Tuesday. Arizona is playing too well to not take a shot on them at this price. Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 13-8 on Monday for their 5th straight win. Arizona has 4 straight games with 10 or more hits and at least 6 runs.
That offense will be up against a struggling Jake Arrieta, who has 6.11 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Arrieta has given up 10 runs on 17 hits (5 HRs) and 6 walks in his last 2 starts. While Arizona's offense figures to stay hot, I think Jon Duplantier has the stuff to keep the Phillies in check, at least enough to get the win.
Dbacks have won 7 straight on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phillies are just 1-5 in their last 6 off a loss and have lost 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record. Take Arizona!
|06-10-19||Dodgers -162 v. Angels||Top||3-5||Loss||-162||15 h 39 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Dodgers -162
I got no problem laying a little juice with Dodgers in Monday's series opener against their cross-town rivals. Not only are the Dodgers the better team, but they got arguably the Cy Young frontrunner on the mound in Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also coming into this one in prime form, as he hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts.
Angels have not hit left handed starters well this season. They have gone just 9-16 in games where they face a left-handed starter and are scoring just 4.4 runs/game and hitting .249 as a team. Angels are also 0-11 in their last 11 vs a NL starting pitcher with an WHIP of 1.15 or better. LA is also 4-14 in their last 18 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game. Dodgers are 41-14 in Ryu's last 58 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the Dodgers!
|06-09-19||Reds +123 v. Phillies||Top||4-3||Win||123||6 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Reds +123
I absolutely love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog on Sunday. Phillies have won the first two games of the series and 4 in a row overall. Most will look to take Philadelphia, especially with ace Aaron Nola on the mound.
However, Nola hasn't been anything close to an elite starter in 2019, despite a solid 6-1 record. Nola owns a 4.63 ERA and atrocious 1.529 WHIP in 13 starts. In his last start he was just rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings of work at San Diego.
While the Phillies will send out one of the more overrated right now, Reds will have one of the more underrated arms on the mound in Sonny Gray. In 12 starts, Gray owns a strong 3.39 ERA and 1.213 WHIP. Gray also has a sizzling 2.89 ERA in 5 road starts and a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Cincinnati!
|06-08-19||White Sox v. Royals +119||Top||2-0||Loss||-100||6 h 3 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Royals +119
Kansas City snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 6-4 win at home against the White Sox on Friday. Royals have struggled to score runs this season, but have now scored 11 on 24 hits in their last 2 games. I look for KC to stay hot and find a way to get to Chicago starter Lucas Giolito.
I know Giolito is coming off a strong May, but I'm not convinced he's completely turned the corner into elite status. He's due for a bad outing. White Sox have also now lost 6 straight on the road and are a mere 8-21 in their last 29 vs a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30.
Royals' Brad Keller has a strong 3.46 ERA in 7 starts against the White Sox, including a 3.00 ERA in 4 starts versus them this season. KC is 15-7 in their last 22 at home vs a team with a losing record. Take Kansas City!
|06-05-19||Yankees v. Blue Jays +185||Top||7-11||Win||185||11 h 55 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +185
I really like the value here with Toronto as a massive home dog against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over New York on Tuesday. Toronto took down Tanaka in that one and now they are ready to take aim at James Paxton.
While Paxton owns a sensational 2.81 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 8 starts, he's got an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in 3 road starts. Toronto will counter with Trent Thornton, who has been a lot better than the numbers would suggest.
Adding even more value is a great system in play to fade New York. Favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 1.5 or more homers/game are just 72-102 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a hefty 59% system on an underdog to win outright. Take Toronto!
|06-04-19||Marlins v. Brewers -168||Top||16-0||Loss||-168||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Brewers -168
Easy play here on Milwaukee as a big home favorite against the Marlins. Brewers won each of their final 2 games against the Padres by a score of 9-3. Milwaukee is averaging 5.6 runs/game and hitting .285 as a team over their last 7 games. That red-hot offense will be up against the likes of Pablo Lopez, who is an atrocious 1-4 with a 8.26 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Brewers will counter with Chase Anderson, who has returned from injury in prime form. While Anderson has struggled to go deep in games, he has a strong 2.78 ERA in 5 starts. Not going deep in games is also not a problem with Milwaukee and their strong bullpen, which should be close to full strength after a day off on Monday.
Brewers are 7-2 in Anderson's last 9 home starts vs a team with a losing record, 20-7 as a team in their last 27 vs an opponent that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. Take Milwaukee!
|06-03-19||Phillies v. Padres +126||Top||2-8||Win||126||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Padres +126
Easy play on the Padres as a home dog against the Phillies in Monday's series opener. Philadelphia is getting way too much love in this spot because of the perceived edge on the mound with ace Aaron Nola starting.
Nola has a perfect 6-0 record, but owns a very mediocre 4.18 ERA and 1.484 WHIP. That incldues an awful 5.85 ERA in 4 road starts. Phillies as a team also come in having lost 4 straight and a big reason for their recent struggles is the offense isn't producing. Philadelphia scored 3 or fewer in all 4 losses and were shutout on Sunday.
Padres will counter here with Eric Lauer, who I really like in this spot. Lauer has been outstanding at home with a 2.67 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 6 starts. He's also trending in the right direction with a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take San Diego!
|06-02-19||Mets v. Diamondbacks -110||Top||1-7||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Diamondbacks -110
It took a couple extra innings, but Arizona pulled out a 6-5 win in 11 innings on Saturday to snap a 5-game losing streak. I'm confident the Diamondbacks will ride the momentum from yesterday's win to a victory on Sunday.
Arizona will have Merrill Kelly on the mound and while he's coming off a poor start at Colorado, he's got a sensational 2.64 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 6 road starts. Also, don't be fooled by his 2.87 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's got an atrocious 1.659 WHIP during that stretch.
New York is just 6-20 in their last 26 road games, 3-11 in their last 14 during Game 3 of a series and 1-6 in Matz's last 7 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Arizona!
|06-01-19||Mets v. Diamondbacks -103||Top||5-6||Win||100||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Diamondbacks -103
I love the matchup and value we are getting with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 12 starts overall. As good as that is, and that's really good, he's even better at home. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 home starts.
I get the Mets have reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound, but he's not been the same guy in 2019. New York is a mere 4-7 in his last 11 starts and he comes in with a 5.06 ERA and 1.375 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Mets have also lost each of his last 4 road starts. Take Arizona!
|05-31-19||Tigers +155 v. Braves||Top||8-2||Win||155||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague 'No Limit' PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tigers +155
Absolutely love the value here with Detroit as a huge road dog against the Braves. It's all about the edge on the mound in this one. Tigers will turn to Spencer Turnbull, who is one of the most underrated starters in the game because he not only has a mere 2-4 record, but because he's on a bad team.
Turnbull owns a sensational 2.97 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 starts. He will be up against Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 5.67 ERA in 6 starts overall and a 6.75 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 4 home starts. Braves have lost 7 of his last 8 starts and are a miserable 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs a right-handed starter. Take Detroit!
|05-30-19||Brewers -116 v. Pirates||Top||11-5||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers -116
Milwaukee is worth a look here as a small road favorite at Pittsburgh on Thursday. Pirates have really cooled off here of late. Pittsburgh is just 3-7 in their last 10, which includes a 1-5 mark in their last 6 at home.
Hard to not like the Brewers in this one with Chase Anderson facing off against Joe Musgrove. Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in 4 starts, while Musgrove owns a 4.74 ERA in 10 outings overall and a 6.10 ERA in 4 road outings. Musgrove also has a poor 6.94 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Brewers.
Brewers weren't in action on Wednesday and are a dominant 20-6 in their last 26 following an off day. They are also 36-16 in their last 52 series openers. Take Milwaukee!
|05-29-19||Mets +185 v. Dodgers||Top||8-9||Loss||-100||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +185
I can't believe we are getting the same value as yesterday with the Mets. We cashed in an easy winner on New York Tuesday at +185. The Mets got no respect at all yesterday against Rich Hill and now are getting zero love against Walker Buehler with Noah Syndergaard going for them.
While Syndergaard hasn't exactly lived up to expectations in 2019, the guy has thrown a complete game shutout and mixed in several other great outings. You just don't get a pitcher of this kind talent at this price often.
The even bigger factor here is the Mets are swinging a hot bat. New York has scored at least 4 runs in 9 straight games and have hit 5 or more in 8 of those 9. That kind of offense can win any game. Take New York!
|05-28-19||Tigers -109 v. Orioles||Top||3-0||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Tigers -109
Easy play here on Detroit as a small road favorite at Baltimore Tuesday. Tigers have been a lot more competitive than their recent record would suggest. They are averaging 4.0 runs and hitting .259 as a team over their last 7, yet are 1-6.
I believe that offense will be able to produce more than enough runs to get the win behind starter Matt Boyd. In 11 starts this season, Boyd has a 3.11 ERA and 1.005 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings of work.
Baltimore will have Dylan Bundy on the mound. Bundy has a 4.68 ERA in 6 home starts and the Orioles as a team are just 1-5 in those 6 outings. Baltimore is also a mere 3-13 in their last 16 vs a left-handed starter and 0-9 in Bundy's last 9 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Detroit!
|05-27-19||Pirates v. Reds -200||Top||8-5||Loss||-200||5 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -200
I got no problem laying the big number with Cincinnati at home in Game 1 of their double-header against the Pirates. Reds will have one of the best starters in the game going in Luis Castillo. The guy is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 11 starts. He's even tougher to score against at home, as he owns a 1.89 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in 6 home starts.
While Cincinnati has a legit ace on the mound, Pittsburgh will be counting on the likes of Nick Kingham and his 10.12 ERA and 2.125 WHIP. Last time out Kingham gave up 7 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings. I just don't see a struggling Pirates offense being able to score enough in this one. Take Cincinnati!
|05-26-19||White Sox +220 v. Twins||Top||0-7||Loss||-100||6 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME of the MONTH on White Sox +220
I absolutely love the value here with Chicago at more than a 2 to 1 dog Sunday. Minnesota is simply way overpriced due to them coming into this game having won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 overall.
Note that lone loss came in a flat spot last Sunday, as they had already won the first 3 games of their series against Seattle. They have outscored the White Sox 19-5 in the first two of this series and I think they will have a tough time showing up to the park motivated for this early game against a bad team. Take Chicago!
|05-25-19||Dodgers v. Pirates +165||Top||7-2||Loss||-100||13 h 44 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Pirates +165
Absolutely love the value here with Pittsburgh as a massive home dog against the Dodgers. LA is a massive public team and with them playing well and having a strong starter on the mound, no doubt the books inflated the line here.
Pittsburgh will have a capable starter on the mound in Joe Musgrove, and he's coming off back-to-back strong starts. Pirates have won 4 of his last 5 starts at home against a team with a winning record.
Dodgers will have lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound. While he's been great, the Dodgers are just 2-14 in his last 16 road starts vs a team with a winning record and the Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 at home vs a left-handed starter. Take Pittsburgh!
|05-24-19||Braves +142 v. Cardinals||Top||5-2||Win||142||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* MLB No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Braves +142
Love the value here with Atlanta in Friday's series opener against the Cardinals. I'm not so sure St Louis should be favored. Cardinals have not been playing well. St Louis is just 5-14 in their last 19. It's also a weird spot for them, as they have been off 3 of the last 4 days and the one day they did play they had to play a double-header.
Cardinals will have Miles Mikolas on the mound and he's got a mere 4.88 ERA in 10 starts. Last time out Mikolas couldn't even complete 2 innings, as he was pulled after giving up 7 runs on 9 hits. He's just not been the same guy that we saw in 2018.
Atlanta will turn to Mike Foltynewicz. When he's on and healthy, he's one of the better starters the Braves have. He had to miss some time and has not looked great in 5 starts, but was sharp last time out against the Brewers, holding a potent Milwaukee offense to just 2 runs on 3 hits in 6 innings. Take Atlanta!
|05-23-19||Marlins +148 v. Tigers||Top||5-2||Win||148||5 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Marlins +148
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Marlins. Miami is playing as well as they have all season, as they come in on a 5-game winning streak, which includes wins over Detroit in the first two games of this series. As for the Tigers, they have lost 8 in a row.
Detroit is getting love because they have a strong starter going in Matt Boyd, but the problem with the Tigers is they can't score runs. Detroit is scoring just 3.3 runs/game on the season and it's been even worse than that of late, as they are averaging just 2.6 runs/game over their last 7 games.
Tigers are a mere 1-10 in their last 11 home games, 0-7 in their last 7 off a loss, 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series and 0-8 in their last 8 at home vs a right-handed starter. Take Miami!
|05-22-19||Marlins +107 v. Tigers||Top||6-3||Win||107||11 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +107
This is a great price to jump on Miami. Marlins might be one of the worst teams in the league, but they aren't playing like it. Miami has won 4 straight and will be facing a Tigers team that has lost 7 straight.
Key here is the Marlins have a big edge on the mound. Jose Urena doesn't look great with a 1-6 record and 4.27 ERA in 9 starts. However, those numbers are misleading. He's gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 6 starts and allowed 2 or fewer run 5 times during this run. He's facing a Tigers offense that is one of the worst in the league, averaging 3.3 runs/game and hitting .217 as a team.
While Detroit figures to struggle to score, Marlins should score early and often. Tigers will turn to Daniel Norris and he's got a 4.55 ERA in 6 starts overall and a 5.94 ERA in his last 3 outings. When he is out, he will turn it over to a Tigers bullpen that has a 5.56 ERA. Take Miami!
|05-21-19||Reds +130 v. Brewers||Top||3-0||Win||130||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB NL Central GAME of the MONTH on Reds +130
I think the Reds are worth a look in Tuesdays's series opener against the Brewers. Cincinnati has been playing better than .500 ball since their dreadful 1-8 start to the season and will be up for another shot at the defending NL Central champs, especially after Milwaukee swept the Reds in Cincinnati earlier this season (all 3 wins were by exactly 1-run).
Brewers are just 4-4 over their last 8, so they aren't exactly playing their best. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for Milwaukee, as they just finished up a lengthy 10-game road trip on Sunday.
Gio Gonzalez has pitched well in his first 4 starts for the Brewers, but he doesn't go deep in games and is due for a poor outing. Reds are 9-3 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 6-2 in their last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 off a SU loss. Take Cincinnati!
|05-20-19||Yankees v. Orioles +180||Top||10-7||Loss||-100||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles +180
Big time value with Baltimore in Monday's series opener against the Yankees. While New York is the better team, no way should they be this big of a favorite on the road against a division rival. Easy spot here for the Yankees to come out flat, as they just closed a 4-1 homestand and swept two games at home against Baltimore last week.
Runs have been tough to come by for the Orioles, but I look for them to get the offense going. Yankees will have J.A. Happ on the mound and he's got a 4.44 ERA in 9 starts. Baltimore on the flip side of this will have Andrew Cashner on the mound. Cashner has a very strong 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 3 home starts. My money is on him keeping the Yankees in check. Take Baltimore!
|05-19-19||Brewers -118 v. Braves||Top||3-2||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Brewers -118
Great value here with Milwaukee as a small road favorite. Atlanta is getting a ton of love right now, as they have won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall, but the Brewers are favored for a reason in this one. Milwaukee will have a massive edge on the mound, as they send out the red-hot Brandon Woodruff against the struggling Mike Foltynewicz.
Woodruff has a 1.06 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all of which have ended up in Brewers wins. In fact, Milwaukee has won 7 of Woodruff's 9 starts on the season. As for Foltynewicz, he's 0-3 with a 8.01 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 4 starts. All 4 of which the Braves have wound up losing. Take Milwaukee!
|05-18-19||Brewers v. Braves -115||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Braves -115
Love the value here with the Braves as a small home favorite against the Brewers. Atlanta comes in off a 12-8 win in the series opener and that was after they put up 10 runs on 14 hits in the finale against the Cardinals.
I look for that Braves offense to stay hot in this one. Milwaukee is sending out one of the better starters in Chase Anderson, but he's making his first start since 4/26, as he returns from the DL.
Atlanta will have Kevin Gausman on the rubber and he's coming off a strong start at Arizona, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings. Gausman comes in with a not so great 4.01 ERA in 4 home starts, but a lot of that is bad luck. Despite an ERA over 4, he's got a WHIP of just 0.892 WHIP. Take Atlanta!
|05-17-19||Giants +135 v. Diamondbacks||Top||0-7||Loss||-100||11 h 40 m||Show|
5* National League HEAVY HITTER of the MONTH on Giants +135
Really like the value here with San Francisco on the money line Friday night. While the Diamondbacks are off a 11-1 blowout win at home against the Pirates, Arizona is still just 4-7 in their last 11 games overall.
Diamondbacks might have been dealt a big blow in that loss with David Peralta forced to leave the game prematurely. While it doesn't appear to be serious, I would be shocked if Peralta played in this one and he's a huge part of that Arizona offense.
I also think that SF will be able to get their offense going in this one. Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly on the mound and he's not been great of late with a 6.06 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take San Francisco!
|05-16-19||A's -135 v. Tigers||Top||17-3||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on A's -135
I got no problem laying a little juice with Oakland on the road in this one. While the A's are just 5-17 on the road this season, Detroit is one place I'm confident they can win at. In fact, Oakland is 12-1 against the Tigers at any park the last 3 years, which includes a perfect 7-0 record at Comerica Park.
Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the big leagues. They come in averaging just 3.4 runs/game and are hitting a mere .223 as a team. That drops down to 2.8 runs/game with a .213 average in games where they face a right-handed starter.
Not only will they be up against a righty in this one, they have to face a really good one. Oakland's Chris Bassitt has a 2.55 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in 4 starts this season.
Tigers are an awful 13-41 in their last 54 vs a team from the AL West, while the A's are a dominant 39-12 in their last 51 vs a team from the AL Central. Take Oakland!
|05-15-19||Rangers v. Royals +122||Top||6-1||Loss||-100||10 h 57 m||Show|
5* American League Money Line PLAY OF THE MONTH on Royals +122
Love the value here with Kansas City as a home dog against the Rangers. Royals finally got their offense going in yesterday's 11-5 win. I look for them to stay hot at the plate Against a Texas pitching staff that has allowed 10+ runs in 3 straight games.
Rangers have also been a horrible road team. After losing on Tuesday, they are now just 5-15 on the road this season. Texas has gone just 1-7 in their last 8 on the road vs a team with a losing record and have lost 7 of the last 10 starts by Mike Minor.
Royals on the other hand are 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Kansas City!
|05-14-19||Padres +142 v. Dodgers||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||12 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Padres +142
Absolutely love the value here with San Diego at this price. I'm not saying the Dodgers shouldn't be favored at home with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but they are getting way too much respect in this one.
As good as Kershaw has been in his 5 starts, he's not the best starter going in this game. Chris Paddack of the Padres is putting up Cy Young type numbers to start the season. Paddack has a 1.55 ERA and 0.688 WHIP in 7 starts. San Diego has won 6 of his 7 starts, which includes a perfect 3-0 record on the road.
Padres were off Monday and this is a team that you want to back after a break. They are 12-3 in their last 15 following an off day. Take San Diego!
|05-13-19||Astros v. Tigers +146||Top||8-1||Loss||-100||9 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Tigers +146
Big time value here with Detroit as a big home dog against the Astros. No denying that the Astros are the better overall team, but the Tigers will have the better starter going in Monday's series opener.
Detroit will turn to Matt Boyd, who is off to a fantastic start to the 2019 season. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 home starts and has a 2.37 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Astros will counter with Brad Peacock. While Peacock was great in his last start, that was at home against a bad Royals offense. Peacock has sub-par 4.59 ERA in 6 starts overall and owns an ugly 6.96 ERA in 2 road starts.
Tigers are a dominant 14-3 in Boyd's last 17 home starts. Take Detroit!
|05-12-19||Rangers +195 v. Astros||Top||5-15||Loss||-100||4 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Rangers +195
I absolutely love the value here with Texas, as they are almost +200 on the money line in a game I give them a great shot to win. Astros have already secured a series win, as they have taken the first 3 games in the series, so it would be really easy for them to not come to the park 100% locked in today.
The other big key here is the Astros have a struggling Collin McCugh on the mound. They have lost 5 of his 8 starts in 2019 and he comes into this one wiht a 9.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that most of his struggles have come at home. No way should Houston be this big a favorite with him starting. Take Texas!
|05-11-19||Angels v. Orioles +130||Top||7-2||Loss||-100||6 h 33 m||Show|
5* American League HEAVY HITTER of the MONTH on Orioles +130
Big time value here with Baltimore as a home dog on Saturday. I get the Orioles are not a great team, but no way should the Angels be this big of a road favorite with a guy like Matt Harvey on the mound. Harvey is a mere 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 7 starts. In his last start, he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits with just 1 strikeout in 4 2/3 innings.
Baltimore on the other hand will have Dylan Bundy on the mound and we know he's got the talent despite the not so great numbers. Key here is Bundy comes in red-hot with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The most recent being an absolute gem at home against the Rays, where he allowed just 3 hits over 7 1/3 shutout innings. Take Baltimore!
|05-10-19||Braves +126 v. Diamondbacks||Top||2-1||Win||126||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +126
I just can't pass up a play on Atlanta at this price. The Braves will have Julio Teheran on the mound and have won 12 of his last 14 starts when they go off as a dog of +100 to +150. Atlanta has also gone 10-3 in Teheran's last 13 starts against a NL team scoring 5 or more runs/game.
Teheran has a not so great 4.63 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in his last 8 starts, but comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 0.947 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Last time out he gave up just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. He will be up against a Dbacks offense that has score 3 or fewer in 4 straight. Take Atlanta!
|05-09-19||White Sox +220 v. Indians||Top||0-5||Loss||-100||3 h 38 m||Show|
5* AL Central Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on White Sox +220
This is just too good a price to pass up on Chicago. The White Sox had won the first two games of the series before losing a 5-3 on a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. I get Cleveland is the better team and should be favored at home, but no way should they be this big of a favorite with the struggles they are having scoring runs.
Cleveland needed 12 hits to push across 5 runs and had just 3 runs going into the 9th. They had scored a total of 1 run in their previous 3 games combined and 2 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. As bad as the numbers are for Chicago starter Manny Banuelos, similar guys have kept this Indianas offense in check.
Chicago has some nice young bats and I think they can get to Indians starter Carlos Carrasco. He's made 7 starts and owns a 5.60 ERA and 1.330 WHIP. He's had a really tough time keeping the ball in the park, as he's already served up 8 homers and the win will be blowing out to center/right center at close to 20 mph. Take Chicago!
|05-08-19||Nationals +180 v. Brewers||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||2 h 6 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Nationals +180
No way should Milwaukee be this big of a home favorite on Wednesday. Brewers are simply overvalued due to winning 5 straight. Brandon Woodruff will be starting for Milwaukee and while he's 4-1, he's owns a very sub-par 5.04 ERA and 1.480 WHIP. Very even matchup on the mound with Jeremy Hellickson going for the Nationals.
I see some hidden value with the fact that the Brewers have won the first 2 games of this series, as Washington has thrived in this spot. Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 after losing the first 2 games of the series. Milwaukee has also dropped 6 of their last 8 when playing Game 3 of a series.
Also, I know the Washington offense has struggled, but Nationals are 30-13 in their last 43 in games following a 3-game stretch where they hit .200 or worse. Take Washington!
|05-07-19||Braves +135 v. Dodgers||Top||0-9||Loss||-100||11 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Braves +135
I think the books have made a huge mistake here pricing Atlanta as a big road dog against the Dodgers. Both teams will send out a talented left-handed starter, as Max Fried goes for the Braves and Hyun-Jin Ryu toes the rubber for Los Angeles.
The key here is the Braves have feasted on south paw starters this season. Atlanta is averaging 5.7 runs/game with a .274 average and .365 OBP in 9 games vs a left-handed starter. Dodgers on the other hand are only hitting .238 as a team in 13 games vs left-handed starters.
LA is also a mere 8-18 in Ryu's last 26 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 after scoring 5 or more in their previous game. Take Atlanta!
|05-05-19||Mets +137 v. Brewers||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||4 h 41 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Mets +
I just feel like there's too much value here with New York to pass up. These two are coming off a marathon 18-inning game on Saturday. Milwaukee won the contest 4-3 and while it's just one game, it feels a little worse than that in games that go that many extra innings.
I think we are going to see New York the more focused of the two in Sunday's game, as I think they will want this one a little more. Milwaukee has already secured the series by taking the first two and could be looking ahead to a bigger series against the Nationals.
Zach Davies has been great for the Brewers, but he's not someone that goes deep in games. He's also got a less than stellar 5.77 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets. New York also has a hot starter on the mound, as Jason Vargas owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take New York!
|05-04-19||Giants +124 v. Reds||Top||2-9||Loss||-100||11 h 17 m||Show|
5* National League Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants are coming off a thrilling 7-6 win on Friday, as they trailed 11-7 going into the 8th inning. They scored 3 in the 8th, 1 in the 9th and eventually the game-winning run in the 11th. That's going to be a tough loss for the Reds to bounce back from.
San Francisco will turn to Dereck Rodriguez and he's a perfect 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 3 road starts. Cincinnati will counter with Tanner Roark, who has struggled with 4.08 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 6 starts. Roark has really struggled with his command, walking 9 guys in his last 3 starts.
Giants are 7-1 in Rodriguez's last 8 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5, 4 of his last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7 of his last 9 road starts overall. Take San Francisco!
|05-01-19||Yankees -115 v. Diamondbacks||Top||2-3||Loss||-115||8 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Yankees -
Arizona was able to take yesterday's series opener 3-1 behind a great outing from their ace Zack Greinke. It was a rare loss for New York, as they are 9-2 in their last 11. I look for the Yankees to have no problem bouncing back and securing a split of this short 2-game series.
New York will have the edge on the mound this time around, as they send out Masahiro Tanaka against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. Tanaka has a strong 3.60 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in 6 starts. Kelly has a solid 3.94 ERA, but an ugly 1.382 WHIP (walked 9 guys in his last 2 starts). In just his last 3 starts he owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.914 WHIP.
Yankees are 27-9 over the last 2 seasons on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and a perfect 7-0 (home or away) when priced in that range this season. Take New York!
|04-30-19||Reds v. Mets +106||Top||3-4||Win||106||7 h 49 m||Show|
5* NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Mets +
I think it's worth going big on New York tonight. No way should the Mets be a home dog against a team like Cincinnati. I get the Reds have a promising young starter on the mound in Luis Castillo, but he's got a bad offense behind him.
The Reds as a team have a pathetic .213 batting average and a .280 on-base percentage. It gets even worse when they are matched up against a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is scoring just 3.2 run/game and hitting .197 as a team vs south paw starters. Mets will have lefty Jason Vargas on the mound and he's off back-to-back strong outings.
Reds are also a mere 19-40 (32%) in their last 59 road games when listed anywhere from +125 to -125. Take New York!
|04-28-19||A's -111 v. Blue Jays||Top||4-5||Loss||-111||4 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Oakland -
Easy play on Oakland at this price. The A's are going to be highly motivated after losing the first two games of the series and needing a win to avoid the sweep. First two games of the series the A's faced two of Toronto's better starters in Stroman and Sanchez.
This time they are up against Trent Thornton, who is 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 5 starts and is trending with a 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last 3 outings. On the flip side of this, Oakland will send out Chris Bassitt, who was outstanding in his first start on 4/22. Bassitt allowed just 2 hits and struck out 7 over 5 shutout innings.
A's have won each of Bassitt's last 5 starts, while the Blue Jays have lost each of Thornton's last 5 starts. Take Oakland!
|04-16-19||Pirates v. Tigers +105||Top||5-3||Loss||-100||8 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers +
No way should Detroit be an underdog at home against the Pirates. I get Pittsburgh is off to a solid 8-6 start, but this is not a playoff caliber team. Neither are the Tigers, but I think we are seeing the Pirates overvalued here in Game 1 due to the Pirates coming off a series win at Washington.
This is the third straight series on the road for Pittsburgh and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost both games at Detroit. I really like the Tigers in the opener, as they send out Matt Boyd, who has been sensational to start the year. Boyd has 29 strikeouts in just over 17 innings of work and has two games already where he's finished with double-digit K's.
Pirates have scored 2 or fewer 5 of their last 10, so it's an offense that can easily be held in check. Pittsburgh is also a mere 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs a left-handed starter and have lost 6 straight road starts with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Take Detroit!
|04-15-19||Rockies +153 v. Padres||Top||5-2||Win||153||12 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies +
Big time value here with Colorado in Monday's series opener against the Padres. The Rockies are simply not as bad as their 4-12 record and I believe yesterday's 4-0 win against San Francisco could light a fire under this team. That victory snapped a 8-game losing streak.
Not exactly an easy spot here for San Diego, who just finished up a lengthy 10-game road trip with a loss to the Diamondbacks. Padres have just 1 win in their last 6 at home following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Another thing is the Padres will send out Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a miserable start at SF. He gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings. Lucchesi is a mere 3-12 in his last 15 starts vs a division opponent. Take Colorado!
|04-14-19||Phillies v. Marlins +159||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||4 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +
I absolutely love the value here with the Marlins in this one. Miami snapped a 5-game losing streak in a 10-3 win on Saturday. They had a season-high 18 hits, which is more than they had in their last 4 games combined.
Usually when a team snaps out of a slump like what the Marlins were in, they keep it going, at least for a few more games. With Vincent Velasquez on the mound for Philadelphia, I like their chances of staying hot that much more.
Phillies are just 7-20 in Velasquez's last 27 road starts, including a mere 1-7 record in his last 8 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Marlins have won 5 of Jose Urena's last 6 starts vs a division opponent. Take Miami!
|04-13-19||Cardinals v. Reds +118||Top||2-5||Win||118||13 h 37 m||Show|
5* NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +
I really like the value here with Cincinnati. While both teams are riding winning streaks, I really think the series against Miami lit a fire under this Reds team. Cincinnati outscored the Marlins 21-1 and will now be playing with a swagger.
The offensive breakthrough was huge and I like their chances of staying hot in Mexico against veteran Adam Wainwright. Once one of the best arms in the big leagues, Wainwright has really fallen off in the latter stage of his career. He's made 2 starts in 2019 and has given up 5 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks. He just doesn't pitch well away from Busch Stadium.
Coming into this season, Wainwright had a 6.45 ERA in 32 road starts and a 3.35 ERA in 32 home starts. So far 2019 has held true to those numbers. He lasted just 4 innings, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks at Pittsburgh then shutdown the Padres at home. Look for the Reds to do some damage at the plate. Take Cincinnati!
|04-12-19||Brewers +135 v. Dodgers||Top||8-5||Win||135||14 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers +
Love the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog against the Dodgers. It's been a rough start to the season for Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, but it's really only the long ball that's hurt him. He's not going to keep giving up 3 HRs per outing and I think the team confirming their commitment to him as a starter, might just be the confidence boost he needs to start pitching to his potential.
The Dodgers scored 7 runs in a loss on Thursday, but prior to that had scored 3 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Let's also not ignore just how potent this Brewers offense is. Even if Burnes isn't at his best, there's still a great chance Milwaukee ends up on top.
Brewers had yesterday off to get their minds right after being swept by the Angels and are an impressive 20-7 in their last 27 after an off day. They are also 23-9 in their last 32 off a loss and 11-4 in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee!
|04-06-19||Cubs v. Brewers -115||Top||14-8||Loss||-115||10 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers -
I can't believe how much respect the Cubs are still getting from the books with how bad they have been to start out 2019. Chicago is 1-6 and while the offense is producing at a decent level, the pitching has been atrocious. After giving up 13 runs on 15 hits in yesterday's series opening loss, the Cubs now own a 7.85 ERA and opposing teams are hitting a ridiculous .321 against them.
Hard to see it getting any better against this loaded Brewers lineup. Lefty Cole Hamels will get the start for Chicago and he was not good in his first outing. Hamels gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work at Texas. Milwaukee will turn to Corbin Burnes, who while giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, showed some promise with 12 strikeouts to just 1 walk. Cubs are a team that will swing and miss a lot.
Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 at home vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.3, 22-7 in their last 29 vs the NL Central and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a left-handed starter. Take Milwaukee!
|04-05-19||A's v. Astros -151||Top||2-3||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
5* MLB AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -
Now is the time to jump on the Astros. Houston has gotten off to a slow start, as they are just 2-5 in their first 7 games. and have just one win since beating the Rays on Opening Day. A big reason they struggled is because they opened the season with 7 straight on the road.
This will be their home opener and I could see them lighting up the scoreboard in their home park. They also have a strong starter going in Collin McHugh. He had 9 strikeouts in 5 innings in start No. 1 and only gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. A's have won 5 of 6, but 4 of those came against lefty starters, which they are better equipped to face. Oakland only scoring 3.2 runs/game and hitting .213 vs right-handed starters. McHugh also owns a strong 3.02 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 11 career starts against the A's (9-2 team record). Take Houston!
|03-31-19||Rockies -150 v. Marlins||Top||0-3||Loss||-150||4 h 31 m||Show|
5* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies -
Colorado should have no problem bouncing back from Saturday's loss with another win over the Marlins. Rockies had won the first two in the series by a combined score of 12-4 and simply are the better team. Colorado will at worst be in the Wild Card race and could push the Dodgers in the NL West. Miami on the other hand is going to be one of the worst teams in the league and likely the worst in the NL.
I know Jon Gray didn't have the best season a year ago, but he's just a year removed from going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 starts. He's 32-23 over their last 3 seasons. He's pitched well in his 2 starts at Marlins Park (3.86 ERA) and I could see him completely shutting down this Miami offense.
On the flip side, even with the loss of Murphy, this is still a very potent Colorado offense an one that should be able to take advantage of starter Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara had major control problems last year (13 walks in his last 3 starts of 2018) and those same control problems were there this spring.
Even with yesterday's loss the Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 against a team from the NL East. They have also gone 12-4 over Gray's last 16 starts. Marlins are 3-8 last 11 off a win and 5-16 in their last 21 in Game 4 of a series. Take Colorado!
|03-30-19||Braves v. Phillies -131||Top||6-8||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
5* MLB NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Phillies -
This is just too good a price to pass up on Philadelphia at home with Nick Pivetta on the mound against the Braves. That's because Pivetta has simply owned Atlanta in his career to this point. He's 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 8 starts.
On top of that, the Braves are sending out Bryse Wilson, who has made just 1 big league start. I just think this is a tall task for the 21-year-old on the road, especially with how talented this Phillies lineup is. Philadelphia put up 10 runs in the opener and that was with their new price free agent Bryce Harper going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. I look for Harper to have a big day here and for the Phillies to win this one going away. Take Philadelphia!
|03-28-19||Braves v. Phillies -174||Top||4-10||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB Opening Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Phillies -
There was going to be a ton of excitement surrounding this season for the Phillies even before they landed Bryce Harper. Philadelphia is all-in for 2019 and I'm expecting a playoff-like atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. Keep in mind Atlanta is the defending champs, so they come in as the team to beat in the NL East.
You also have to love that the Phillies will have Aaron Nola on the mound, who is a legit Cy Young contender. Nola has owned the Braves, going 7-3 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 12 starts. That includes a 5-1 record in 6 home starts against Atlanta. Phillies as a team are 22-6 in Nola's last 28 home starts and 12-4 in his last 16 vs a division opponent.
Julio Teheran will take the mound for the Braves and he's got just a 3.67 ERA in 22 career starts vs the Phillies. In his last 3 starts at Citizens Bank Park, he's given up 12 runs on 14 hits in 14 2/3 innings of work. Take Philadelphia!
|10-28-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -135||Top||5-1||Loss||-135||6 h 18 m||Show|
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Dodgers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|10-13-18||Dodgers -110 v. Brewers||Top||4-3||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
5* Dodgers/Brewers NLDS (G2) PLAY OF THE YEAR on Dodgers -
I'm confident the Dodgers will even up the series with a win in Game 2. I think the 4 runs that LA was able to push across in the final 2 innings was a big confidence builder for that offense and I expect them to get off to a strong start here against Milwaukee's Wade Miley. The Brewers went to their bullpen early and their go-to reliever, Josh Hader, threw 3 innings last night.
Dodgers will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was sensational in his start against Atlanta in the NLDS. Ryu allowed just 4 hits and struck out 8 in 7 shutout innings. Ryu should be in great form having not pitched since last Oct. 4.
There's also a great system in play, Road teams who have an OBP of .350 or better in their last 20 games and starting a pitcher on 7 or more days of rest are 45-17 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Los Angeles!
|09-21-18||Brewers -123 v. Pirates||Top||8-3||Win||100||20 h 30 m||Show|
5* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers -
Milwaukee should have no problem securing a win on the road against the Pirates and are showing great value here as a short favorite. The Brewers will be out for revenge after dropping the final 2 games of a 3-game set at Milwaukee against these Pirates last week.
Jhoulys Chacin will take the mound for the Brewers and he's 9-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 19 road starts. He's also pitched extremely well against Pittsburgh this season. Chacin has made 5 starts against the Pirates in 2018 and has allowed a mere 8 runs in 28 2/3 innings of work, never giving up more than 3 runs in any of the 5 starts. He's also allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits in the 2 starts that came at Pittsburgh.
Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 on the road and 4 straight series openers with Chacin on the mound. Pirates are just 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning record and 3-3 in Ivan Nova's last 16 starts when he's facing a team that scored 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Milwaukee!
|09-17-18||Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125||Top||5-1||Loss||-125||10 h 35 m||Show|
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks -
The Diamondbacks should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Cubs on Monday. Arizona will have one of the best pitchers in the NL on the mound for this one in Pat Corbin and he comes in lights out of late. He's made 7 quality starts in his last 8 outings and enters with a 2.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Corbin has owned the Cubs in his career, going 5-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 6 starts. He was sensational in his lone start vs Chicago this year, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. He's also catching the Cubs offense in a bit of a slump. Chicago won 2 of 3 at home against the Reds over the weekend, but managed to score just 5 runs on 16 hits in the series.
Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs and he's been hit or miss all season, which is why he's just 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's got a 3.89 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 14 starts. Hendricks lasted just 5 innings after giving up 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in his only start against Chicago this season. Take Arizona!
|08-29-18||Blue Jays v. Orioles +104||Top||5-10||Win||104||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles +
The Orioles have absolutely dominated the first two games of their series with the Blue Jays. Baltimore won 7-0 on Monday and followed that up with a 12-5 win on Tuesday. There will be no let off from the Orioles, who will try to complete their first 3-game series sweep of the season.
I see no reason for that not to happen. Not only is Baltimore swinging a hot bat, but they will have the edge on the mound in this one. The Orioles will send out Alex Cobb, who has really been sharp since the All-Star break and comes in having allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts. Toronto will counter with Ryan Borucki, who has an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 6 road starts and a miserable 9.82 ERA and 2.182 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Orioles are now 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Blue Jays have lost 6 straight on the road. Take Baltimore!
|08-26-18||Cardinals v. Rockies -128||Top||12-3||Loss||-128||6 h 25 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies -
Colorado should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Cardinals. The Rockies will send out Tyler Anderson, who has actually been better at home than on the road, which is rare for Colorado pitchers. Anderson has a 4.45 ERA in 26 starts overall, but a solid 3.65 ERA in 13 starts at home.
St Louis will send out lefty Austin Gomber, who has a solid 2.73 ERA in 5 starts, but a not so great 1.329 WHIP. He's also not been as strong on the road, where his ERA jumps to 3.54. I look for Gomber to struggle in his first ever start at Coors Field.
Note the Rockies are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs a left-handed starter, including a 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs a southpaw starter. Rockies have also won 5 of their last 6 against a team with a winning record and are 4-1 in their last 5 doing game 3 of a series. Take Colorado!
|08-25-18||White Sox +112 v. Tigers||Top||6-1||Win||112||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB American League GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox +
Chicago should have no problem here securing a win against the Tigers on Saturday. While the White Sox have been out of the playoff race for quite some time, they are trying to build for the future and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. Chicago won 6-3 yesterday over Detroit and are now 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
A big reason for the White Sox surge is the offense has been producing at a much higher level. They should be able to put up another big number here against the Tigers Ryan Carpenter, who has not been all that impressive in his first 4 starts. Carpenter has a 6.23 ERA and 1.558 WHIP.
Lucas Giolito will take the mound for Chicago and he was sharp in a recent outing at Detroit back on Aug. 14th. Giolito allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings and I look for another strong outing here as the White Sox are a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 road starts against a team with a losing record. Take Chicago!
|08-22-18||Rangers +149 v. A's||Top||4-2||Win||149||5 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers +
Texas doesn't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season, but I expect the best the Rangers have to offer in Wednesday's series finale against the A's. Texas has been embarrassed in each of the first two games of the series, losing 9-0 on Monday and 6-0 last night.
They key here is the Rangers have a guy on the mound in Mike Minor who can keep Oakland's offense in check and I expect Texas' offense to come to life in this one. Minor is 3-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was sharp in his only start against the A's this season and owns a 3.00 lifetime ERA against Oakland.
Edwin Jackson will toe the rubber for the A's and while he's been better than they could have ever imagined, he did not pitch well in a recent start against these Rangers. Jackson lasted just 4 1/3 innings after giving up 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walk. Take Texas!
|08-18-18||Rockies v. Braves -153||Top||5-3||Loss||-153||11 h 25 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Braves -
Atlanta should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Rockies. The Braves are certainly going to be up for this one after dropping the first two games of the series. The key here is Atlanta has a big edge on the mound with Mike Foltynewicz facing off against Antonio Senzatela.
Foltynewicz is coming into this one a perfect 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in his last 3 starts. His most recent outing was one of his best all season, as he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 8 innings at home against the Marlins. That impressive start lowered his ERA to 2.91 in 11 starts at SunTrust Park this season.
As for Senzatela, he's making his first start off the DL and this is always a tough spot for any starter. I think it could be especially tough for him, given he's 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 3 road starts. Colorado's dropped each of his last 4 road starts vs a team with a winning record and the Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 at home against a right-handed starter. Take Atlanta!
|08-14-18||White Sox v. Tigers -125||Top||6-3||Loss||-125||11 h 34 m||Show|
5* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers
Detroit should have no problem here coming away with a win at home against the White Sox. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4, including a 9-5 win in yesterday's series opener against Chicago. Detroit should be able to once again rely on their offense to carry the load, as they will be up against the struggling Lucas Giolito.
In his last 3 starts, Giolito has posted an awful 7.16 ERA and 1.470 WHIP and is now 7-9 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.496 WHIP in 23 starts on the season. Control has been a major problem for Giolito and I just don't see him pitching well here.
On the flip side of this, the Tigers send out Blaine Hardy, who has performed well in his 12 starts this season. Hardy is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in 7 home starts and has posted a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Detroit!
|08-10-18||Brewers -101 v. Braves||Top||1-10||Loss||-101||8 h 52 m||Show|
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers -
This might seem like the Brewers are getting to much respect on the road against an Atlanta team that is just 1-game back of the NL East leading Phillies. I actually think Milwaukee should be a bigger favorite.
Atlanta will send out Kevin Gausman, who they acquired in a trade with Baltimore. Everyone knows the potential is their for Gausman, but I don't think switching teams is going to magically make him an elite starter. He wasn't that great in his first start with the Braves and I think he's going to to continue to struggle, especially against a red-hot Milwaukee offense that is averaging 5.6 runs/game over their last 7.
Typically playing at home on Friday in front of what is usually a large crowd favors the home team, but the Braves are just 1-8 this season at home on Friday. Atlanta has also dropped 5 of 7 at home vs a team with a winning record. Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 when coming off a loss, 6-1 in their last 7 vs a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee!
|08-06-18||Astros v. Giants +137||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||17 h 11 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +
I love this spot and price with San Francisco at home against the defending champs. The Giants are playing well, as they have won 5 of their last 7, including a 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks on Sunday. No question SF will give it their best shot against the team that won it all in 2017.
Houston just took 2 of 3 against the Dodgers in what was the first meeting between the two clubs since they faced off in last year's World Series. This is an ideal letdown spot for the Astros and AT&T Park is not a place they have played well in the past. Houston has just 5 wins in their last 18 games as the road team against the Giants.
The inability to score runs has been their biggest downfall. The Astros have scored 2 or fewer in 12 of those 18 meetings. With the red-hot Dereck Rodriguez on the mound for the Giants, Houston's offensive woes at AT&T Park figure to continue. Rodriguez is 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 10 starts. He's got a 2.64 ERA in 5 home starts and a 1.86 ERA and 0.826 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take San Francisco!
|08-01-18||Astros -127 v. Mariners||Top||8-3||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
5* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -
The Astros snapped their 5-game losing streak with a 5-2 win on Tuesday and it could have been a much more lopsided final than it was. Houston was a bit unfortunate to only score 5 runs, given they had 15 hits. That was a great sign for the struggling Astros offense, which had managed just 23 hits in their previous 5 games combined.
I look for the offense to build off that strong show here. Seattle will send out Wade LeBlanc, who comes in with a 4.08 ERA in his last 3 starts and owns a 5.14 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Astros. Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for Houston and he's red-hot with a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He should have no problem here keeping the Mariners offense in check. Seattle has only scored 4 runs in the series on 11 hits.
Astros are 20-8 in Keuchel's last 28 starts against a division opponent, 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall and 4-0 in his last 4 on the road. Take Houston!
|07-29-18||Cubs -110 v. Cardinals||Top||5-2||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* NL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH ON Cubs -
I absolutely love Chicago in this spot. The Cubs are going to be all business in this one after dropping the first two games of the series against rival St Louis. Chicago hasn't lost 3 straight games since the end of June and are 60-29 in their last 89 games after a loss. They also have been a great team to back late in a series, as they have gone 5-1 over their last 6 in game 3 of a series and are 4-0 in their last 4 games on Sunday.
St Louis on the other hand is just 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win and 8-17 in their last 25 after a game where they scored 5 or more runs. John Gant will take the mound for the Cardinals and he's just 1-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 7 starts. He's been even worse at home, where he's got a 4.50 ERA in 4 starts. Cardinals have lost 4 of this last 5 home starts and are just 2-7 in his last 9 starts overall. Take Chicago!
|07-26-18||A's -132 v. Rangers||Top||7-6||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* AL West Game of the Week on Oakland -
I love the value here with Oakland as a decently priced road favorite against the Rangers in Thursday's MLB action. The A's put together another late-inning rally to defeat the Rangers 6-5 on Wednesday. Oakland trailed 5-1 going into the 7th. This came just one day after the A's went into the 7th trailing 10-2 and ended up winning 13-10 in extra innings.
Those are two excruciating losses for Texas and I think they are going to have a hard time getting excited about coming to the park for this one. On top of that, Oakland should have the edge on the mound with Trevor Cahill facing off against Bartolo Colon. Cahill has a 2.96 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 10 starts. Colon is 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA in his last 3 starts and owns an ugly 5.84 ERA in 8 home starts.
A's are also 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5 or more runs, 24-8 in their last 32 on the road and 40-16 in their last 56 vs a team with a losing record. Take Oakland!
|07-21-18||Giants +118 v. A's||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||13 h 23 m||Show|
5* MLB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants
I love the value here with San Francisco as an underdog at Oakland in Saturday's MLB action. This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Giants with their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner has a 2.90 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 8 starts and one of his better outings came against these A's back on July 13th. Bumgarner allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings of work.
Oakland will counter with Trevor Cahill, who has a mere 4.16 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Giants. A's are also 1-5 in Cahill's last 6 starts. Giants are also 21-6 in their last 27 games vs a right-handed starter and 4-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs a team from the AL West. Take San Francisco!
|07-15-18||Nationals -128 v. Mets||Top||6-1||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nationals -
I love the value here with the Nationals as a small road favorite against the Mets in Sunday's series finale before the All-Star break. Washington will be extra motivated here after dropping the last two games in the series and will have a big edge on the mound in this one.
The Nationals send out Jeremy Hellickson, who is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 8 road starts. New York counters with Corey Oswalt, who is 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 3 starts. Hellickson is 16-6 in his last 22 starts agains the money line when facing an NL team with a OBP of .315 or worse. Take Washington!
|07-11-18||Cardinals -135 v. White Sox||Top||0-4||Loss||-135||12 h 34 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Cards -
I love the value here with the Cardinals laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the White Sox. St Louis stayed hot at the plate with 14 runs in yesterday's 14-2 win over Chicago and are now averaging 6.9 runs/game and hitting .303 as a team in their last 7. The White Sox on the other hand have dropped 6 in a row and are hitting a mere .218 as at team over their last 7.
I expect another comfortable win for the Cardinals in this one. ST Louis will send out Luke Weaver, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season at San Francisco. Weaver allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits in 8 innings against the Giants. Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon, who is just 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 6 starts. Take St Louis!
|07-10-18||Mariners v. Angels -145||Top||3-9||Win||100||14 h 50 m||Show|
5* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Angels -
I like the value here with the Angels at home against the Mariners in Tuesday's MLB action. Los Angeles will send out Garrett Richards, while Seattle counters with Mike Leake. Richards has posted a strong 3.31 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 6 home starts and is 7-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Mariners.
Leake has put up decent numbers of late, but still comes in with a 4.11 ERA in 18 starts. Leake is also coming off a poor outing at home against these Angels, where he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings of work.
Seattle is a mere 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a winning record, while the Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 home games. LA is also 8-2 in Richard's last 10 starts against an opponent who scored 5 or more runs in their previous game and 4-1 in Richard's last 5 starts in Game 1 of a series. Take Los Angeles!
|07-07-18||Cardinals -115 v. Giants||Top||3-2||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals
I love the value here with St Louis as a short road favorite against the Giants in Saturday's MLB action. San Francisco snapped their 4-game losing streak on Friday, but the offense continued to struggle. The Giants scored just 3 runs in the win and have now score a whopping 8 runs over their last 5 games.
I don't see San Francisco getting out of their funk in this one. St Louis will send out Carlos Martinez, who has allowed just 4 runs with 15 strikeouts over his last 2 starts (12 innings). Martinez has also owned the Giants with a 1.80 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 3 career starts. On the flip side of this San Francisco will be starting Jeff Samardzija, who is making his first start since May 29th and was just 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA in 8 starts earlier this season. Take St Louis!