|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-05-19||Magic v. Thunder UNDER 204||94-102||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Magic/Thunder under 204 -110
Don't be fooled into taking the OVER with this low total in tonight's NBA action between the Thunder and Magic. I actually think there's value with the UNDER in this one. Both of these teams are strong defensively. OKC is tied for 3rd in defensive efficiency and Orlando is right on their heels at No. 5.
Not only that, both teams are struggling on the other side of the ball. Magic are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and the Thunder aren't to far back at 26th. Orlando also plays at the second slowest pace in the league. Take the UNDER!
|11-04-19||Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 224||118-127||Loss||-109||12 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Blazers/Warriors under 224 -109
The Warriors are a complete mess right now. They won't have Steph Curry for months because of a broken hand. Draymond Green is out at the moment with a torn ligament in this finger and D'Angelo Russell is questionable with an ankle injury. Without these 3 in the lineup, they scored just 87 points in a 6-point home loss to the Hornets.
The only way Golden State even has a chance to be competitive without Curry and Green is to slow the game way down and play hard defensively, which is what I'm expecting here agianst the Blazers. Even if they can't keep Portland in check, this should turn into a blowout and still stay under the high total set by the books. Take the UNDER!
|11-04-19||Pistons v. Wizards OVER 224.5||99-115||Loss||-109||9 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pistons/Wizards over 224½ -109
I look for Detroit and Washington to have zero problem eclipsing the total Monday night. The Wizards haven't exactly been playing a lot of defense. In Washington's last 3 games they have allowed 124 to the Spurs, 159 to the Rockets and 131 to the T-Wolves (without KAT). All of those saw a combined score of 140 or more.
Pistons aren't a great offensive team, but they are scoring 112.7 ppg on the road and giving up 115.7 ppg on the road. Wizards are averaging 133.5 ppg on their home floor. OVER is 30-15 in Washington's last 45 with a total of 220 to 229.5 and 25-10 at home the last two seasons with a total of 220 or more. Take the OVER!
|11-03-19||Lakers v. Spurs OVER 217.5||103-96||Loss||-109||9 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Spurs over 217½ -109
I think this is an easy play on the OVER. Lakers offense has been clicking lately and it figures to only get better the more chemistry LeBron and AD form. Not to mention they have recently just got back a big time scorer in Kyle Kuzma. Lakers have scored 119 or more in each of their last 3 games.
I could easily see them getting to that points, but all we need is for both teams to get to 109 and we can't lose. Spurs have scored 113 or more in 4 of 5 games and are averaging 119 on the road. OVER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 at home and 10-3 in the Lakers last 13 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|10-30-19||Clippers v. Jazz OVER 215||96-110||Loss||-109||12 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Jazz over 215 -109
I'm not expecting this thing to get into the 230's or anything, but I see a ton of value with the total at this price. Utah is averaging 106.5 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers defense that is giving up 126.0 ppg on the road.
While Utah has an elite defense that is allowing just 91.5 ppg, it's hard to see them holding this Clippers team under 100, as LA is averaging 121.5 ppg.
Not to mention the books are begging for UNDER money with this total, as the public will be much more inclined to take the UNDER seeing that the Jazz haven't played a game all season where the two teams combined for more than 200 points. Take the OVER!
|10-28-19||Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 235||134-123||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Warriors/Pelicans over 235 -109
Don't be afraid of the big number here. These two should easily eclipse this total. Each of the Pelicans first 3 games have seen a combined score of 139 or more. Both teams also love to push the pace. New Orleans is currently No. 6 and the Warriors are No. 9. Both are also struggling defensively. Golden State ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and the Pelicans come in at 25th.
OVER is 21-8 in the Pelicans last 29 after 2 straight losses and the average score in this spot has been 138.1. Take the OVER!
|10-26-19||Clippers v. Suns UNDER 228||122-130||Loss||-110||11 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night Total KNOCKOUT on Clippers/Suns under 228 -110
I think these two teams will fly past the total Saturday night. The rest of the league has to be a bit worried with what they are seeing from the Clippers, as they look every bit as good as we thought they we would Khawi and they are going to be adding Paul George to the mix here shortly.
Clippers have featured the most efficient offense in the league at 123.6 points per 100 possessions. The next best is the hawks at 116.7. The defense was great the first two games, but one was against a Lakers team that is the slowest pace team in the league and the other against a Warriors team that looks to be in big trouble with their lack of scoring options.
I don't think the Clippers will bring that same intensity on defense against the Suns on the road and I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams score into the 120's. Take the OVER!
|10-25-19||Blazers v. Kings OVER 225||Top||122-112||Win||100||14 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Kings over 225 -110
I look for the Blazers and Kings to fly past the total tonight. Sacramento let the Suns of all teams shoot 50% from the field in their season opener. That says a lot about this team and the effort they will be giving on the defensive side of the ball.
The offense did manage just 95 points on 39% shooting, but I would expect a much better showing from the offense at home. Blazers also due for a much better shooting night after connecting on just 41% against a really good Denver team.
OVER is 18-7-1 last 26 Blazers games after they failed to cover the spread and 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs a team with losing record at or below 40%. Take the OVER!
|10-23-19||Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218||Top||108-100||Win||100||14 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers under 218 -109
You will hear a lot about the offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball in this game, but I think we are going to see the two defenses shine. This season opener means a little more, especially to the Nuggets, as the Blazers knocked them out of the playoffs last year.
I also think Portland is still a team playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they just continue to not get the respect they feel they deserve. This team just went to the Western Conference Finals and yet no one is picking them as a title contender. I expect as close to a playoff-like atmosphere as you can expect this early in the season. I also think we are getting a few points of value here with the books inflating the total in a nationally televised game. Take the UNDER!
|10-22-19||Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5||Top||102-112||Win||100||26 h 4 m||Show|
5* NBA - Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Clippers under 226½ -110
I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total in tonight's highly anticipated season opener between the Clippers and Lakers. I think we are seeing a high number because the Lakers brought in AD and the Clippers added Kawhi and George. However, George is not ready to play and Lakers will be without Kuzma.
You got two of the very best defensive players on the same team in Leonard and Patrick Peverley. Lakers got LeBron and AD and a bunch of guys that can play defense in Rondo, Howard, Bradley Green, etc.
I'm expecting playoff like intensity from both teams in this game and a bit of a slower pace. Total should be closer to 215 than 225. Take the UNDER!
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5||Top||105-99||Win||100||30 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks under 217½ -110
While each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER the total, I absolutely love the UNDER in Game 5 on Thursday. With the series tied 2-2, this feels like a must-win for both team, so we can expect a max effort here from both sides.
With both teams giving all they got on the defensive side of the ball, I think we are poised to get our lowest scoring game of the series. Keep in mind that neither team even got to 100 points in regulation of Game 3 and there were just 208 scored in Game 1. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the Raptors last 10 on the road and 13 of the Bucks last 19 off a loss. Take the UNDER!
|05-12-19||76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5||Top||90-92||Loss||-109||56 h 60 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on 76ers/Raptors over 207½ -109
I know that the defensive effort will be there for both teams in Game 7, but I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER at this price. While both teams have flashed great defense in the postseason, especially the Raptors, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power on the floor for these two to not reach at least 210 points.
Each of the last 2 games have went OVER the total and both of those were blowouts. I think this one is going to be a lot closer and even more high-scoring than the last two. OVER is 17-6 in the 76ers last 23 road games with a total set between 200 and 209.5. Over is also 34-19 in the Raptors last 53 when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Take the OVER!
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220||Top||123-116||Loss||-109||14 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks UNDER
No need to overthink this one. Big time value here with the UNDER at this number. While Game 2 went OVER the mark, it do so just barely and was a bit of a fluke given how poorly both teams shot overall. Despite scoring 123 points, the Bucks only shot 43.8% from the field. Boston was even worse at 39.5%. The only reason the game went over is the Bucks made 20 3-pointers and the two combined to go 49 for 58 (84%) from the free throw line.
These two only combined for 202 points in Game 1 and I still think we have yet to see a true defensive game between these two. I think the Celtics defense is really going to benefit from playing at home, and Milwaukee is going to be extremely motivated to take back homecourt in the series. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to break 100 points. Take the UNDER!
|05-02-19||Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215||Top||95-116||Win||100||56 h 53 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER
I just don't know how you don't play the UNDER at this number given what we have seen in the first two games of the series. Game 1 had a total of 223 and it ended up with a combined score of 203. They lowered the total down to 219.5 for Game and it still wasn't close. This time they only managed 183 points.
I don't see any reason to expect anything but another low-scoring game. Toronto has yet to allow an opponent to shoot better than 42% from the field in any game this postsesaon. They have held the 76ers under 40% in both games. They have also not allowed more than 96 points in any game since Game 1 of the first round against Orlando.
You also have to factor in that Embiid is not 100% and when he's not right the 76ers offense can really struggle to score in the halfcourt. I think Philly understands that for them to win this series they have to play with same defensive intensity that they brought to the table in Game 2. Take the UNDER!
|04-24-19||Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235||Top||129-121||Loss||-110||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clippers UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 5 between the Warriors and Clippers. I'm not saying there won't be a lot of offense, I just feel like the number here is way too high with Los Angeles fighting off elimination and the Warriors surely motivated to end this series at home and get ready for their big showdown with Houston in the next round.
We saw a much more defensive-minded contest in Game 4, as the two only combined for 218 points with a total at 236. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this thing stayed under 220 again.
UNDER is 13-1 in the Clippers last 14 when revenging a home loss and 15-4 in their 19 road games this season against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Warriors last 13 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER!
|04-23-19||Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 212||90-108||Win||100||13 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER
Each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER and it's resulted in the highest total of the series in Game 5. I think it's time to shift gears and bet the UNDER. Not only are we getting a few points of value, but we can count on both teams showing up defensively.
With the series tied 2-2, both teams know that the winner of this game almost always ends up winning the series. I expect a very similar type of scoring output to Game 1, where the two teams combined for 197 points.
UNDER is 23-12 in the Spurs last 35 when playing on 2 days of rest and 8-3 in their last 11 on the road. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 off a win and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won less than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER!
|04-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237||Top||132-105||Push||0||15 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER
I think we are getting some big time value here with the UNDER after these two combined for 266. A lot of that had to do with the Warriors taking their foot off the gas after building up a 31-point lead. They let the Clippers score 40+ points in both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Expect more of what we saw in Game 1, when the two combined for just 125.
That's an embarrassing loss for the defending champs and I'm confident they come out 100% locked in for Game 3, especially with them feeling the need to step up after the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. Not having Cousins on the floor definitely hurts the Warriors offense, but I also think it helps them defensively.
UNDER is 12-2 in the Warriors last 14 when revenging a loss as a home favorite of 10 or more and 13-3 in Clipper home games during the 2nd half of the season, when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER!
|04-17-19||Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211||99-120||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons OVER
The Pistons and Bucks combined for 207 points with Detroit accounting for just 86 in Game 1. Some of Detroit's struggles offensively were a product of Milwaukee's defense, but the Pistons simply didn't shoot well.
I think we are going to see a little more out of Detroit's offense in Game 2 and a big reason for that is it will be hard for Milwaukee to bring that same intensity on the defensive side after how lopsided it was in Game 1 (won by 35). Key here is that we are getting value on the total because of what happened in the series opener.
OVER is 21-8 in the Bucks last 29 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. OVER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 when revenging a loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER!
|04-16-19||Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 219||94-114||Win||100||37 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
These two combined for just 203 points in Game 1 with a total set at 223. The books have adjusted quite a bit for Game 2, but not nearly enough. These are two teams that don't get the respect they deserve on the defensive side of the ball because of all the fire-power they have on the offensive side.
What people also overlook is the lack of legit scorers that both teams have after their top guys. Westbrook (24) and George (26) combined for 50 and Lillard (30) and McCullum (24) combined for 54. Thunder also got 17 from Adams, while the Blazers got 20 from Kanter. Chances are we see a couple of these guys struggle in Game 2 and I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up under 200. Take the UNDER!
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers UNDER 226||123-145||Loss||-103||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/76ers UNDER
These two teams combined for just 113 in the opener, finishing well below the mark of 228. The books have adjusted a little, but not nearly enough. Brooklyn's a very strong defensive team and their intensity on that side of the ball really gave the 76ers problems.
As for Philadelphia, I think they got a big wake-up call in the Game 1 loss. I think they went in thinking it was going to be easy to take down the Nets. They won't make that mistake in Game 2. Expect the 76ers to lay everything on the line, especially on the defensive side, to avoid going down 0-2. I just don't see this one coming close to the mark. Take the UNDER!
|04-05-19||Raptors v. Hornets OVER 223||111-113||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hornets OVER
The books completely missed the mark here. With Milwaukee's win last night, Toronto is locked into the No. 2 seed in the east. The defensive effort simply isn't going to be there, especially on the road.
While the game means something to the Hornets, Charlotte has been playing little to no defense down the stretch. Hornets have allowed each of their last 4 opponents to shot 47% or better from the field and have allowed 50% or better in 3 of their last 6. Raptors might limit some minutes, but they are a deep team. I could see both teams scoring 120. Take the OVER 223!
|04-03-19||Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 216||89-116||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies UNDER
I just don't see the Blazers and Grizzlies surpassing the mark set by the books. Memphis is only shooting 41% from the field over their last 5 games. They just lost Jonas Valanciunas, are already without Avery Bradley and aren't expected to have the services of Mike Conley. Grizzlies only scored 96 on 38% shooting last time out against the Clippers, which marked the first time since late Jan. that LAC held an opponent under 100 points.
Portland is fighting the Rockets for the No. 3 seed in the west and they control their own destiny. They win their final 4 games and they will be the No. 3 seed. I expect a big effort here and chances are this thing turns into a bit of a blowout, which is always a good thing for the UNDER.
UNDER is 7-2 in the Grizzlies last 9 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-2 in their last 13 on the road with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER!
|04-02-19||Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 220||102-116||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Nuggets/Warriors UNDER
This is a massive game this late in the year, as these two are fighting for the No.1 seed and home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Right now the Warriors have a 1-game lead over the Nuggets, but a Denver win would not only pull them even in the standings it would make it a 2-2 series split between the two teams.
I think both teams understand the importance of home court and will basically treat this like a playoff game. Add in the Nuggets scoring problems of late (scored 95 or less in 4 of 5) and this thing should stay well below the number posted here.
UNDER is 12-3 in Denver's last 15 road games when revenging a road loss, 10-2 in their last 12 vs the Western Conference and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 overall, 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team from the west and 7-1 in their last 8 at home. Take the UNDER!
|04-01-19||Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 205.5||Top||102-111||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Central Division TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER
There's a lot to like here with the UNDER in Monday's division clash between the Pistons and Pacers. The obvious is that being division rivals these two teams are very familiar with one another. They have already faced each other twice this season.
Both will be without their best player, as the Pacers continue to go to work without Victor Oladipo, while the Pistons will be without the services of Blake Griffin. Detroit just played a game without Griffin against the Blazers and the two combined for just 189 points.
Both of these teams are strong defensively and both still have plenty to play for. Indiana is tied for 4th/5th with Boston and getting home court in that series would be huge for them. As for the Pistons, they are sitting 6th in the east, but just 1.5-games ahead of 9th place Orlando.
UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Pistons last 29 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, 35-16 in the Pacers last 51 at home and 28-11 in last 39 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER!
|03-26-19||Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 220||103-112||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bulls/Raptors UNDER
Big time value here with the UNDER in this one. Toronto comes into this game around a 14-point favorite and for good reason, as the Bulls are expected to be without 3 starters in Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Otto Porter Jr. Both LaVine and Porter Jr sat out their last game and the Bulls managed just 83 points on 36% shooting. Without those guys there's just not enough offensive fire-power for the Bulls to put up a ton of points.
Making matters even worse for Chicago's offense is they are likely to get a pissed off Raptors team that just lost back-to-back at home. Toronto should be in complete control of this game from the start and blowouts tend to be lower scoring, as there's not as many fouls late and the better players are typically on the bench.
These two combined for just 184 points in the most recent meeting and a mere 205 in the only other matchup this season. UNDER is 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a winning percentage above 60% and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|03-25-19||76ers v. Magic UNDER 219||Top||98-119||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Magic UNDER
Love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Magic. Orlando comes in off a high-scoring game against the Grizzlies, but they didn't bring the defensive intensity early. When it mattered the most they held Memphis to 15 points in the 4th quarter. Prior to that the Magic had held 3 straight teams under 100 points.
Not a big surprise, as Orlando has been the best defensive teams since the All-Star break, at least in terms of points allowed (103.8 ppg). A big reason for that is they have posted the best 3-point percentage defense during this run. No question we are going to get a max effort defensively from Orlando against a top-tier team like the 76ers.
UNDER is 18-8 in Magic's last 26 home games vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs another team from the east. UNDER is also 6-2 in the 76ers last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!
|03-23-19||Pistons v. Blazers UNDER 216||112-117||Loss||-110||14 h 9 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons UNDER
Look for Detroit and Portland to fly UNDER the mark set by the books on Saturday. Pistons have really been playing well for a while now, but he offense has struggled of late. Detroit has shot 43% or worse in 4 of their last 7 and considering they are playing their 4th game in 7 days and 3rd straight on the road, I don't see them going off offensively in this one.
Blazers are known for their offense, but this is a very sound defensive team, especially at home. UNDER has actually cashed in 4 of the last 5 games for Portland. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are playing on a full 2 days of rest.
UNDER has also gone 16-5 in Detroit's last 21 vs a team from the Western Conference, 33-14-4 in their last 51 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 11-1 in their last 12 when playing 8 or more games in a 14 days stretch. Take the UNDER!
|03-22-19||Nets v. Lakers OVER 228.5||111-106||Loss||-110||12 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets/Lakers OVER
Easy play on the OVER here in Friday's NBA action between Brooklyn and Los Angeles. Lakers are playing little defense and that's to be expected when you have a team that has come up this short on expectations. LA just gave up 121 against the Kings and have allowed at least 114 points in 3 straight. Hasn't been much better for Brooklyn, who has allowed 110 or more in 4 straight and 12 of 13 overall.
OVER is 25-9 in Brooklyn's last 34 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in the Lakers last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. Take OVER!
|03-17-19||76ers v. Bucks UNDER 232||130-125||Loss||-109||6 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Bucks UNDER
Books have set the total way too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This is a big time matchup, as both of these teams are trying to take claim to the Eastern Conference now that LeBron is gone. I look for both teams to come out looking to send a message to the other side.
UNDER has been a money-maker in 76ers game of late, as it's cashed in 8 of the last 9 games for Philadelphia. UNDER is also a perfect 8-0 in the 76ers last 8 road games with a total of 230 or more and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 at home, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team from the East and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|03-11-19||Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227||Top||98-89||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Thunder UNDER
I'm confident that Utah and OKC will fly UNDER the mark set by the books. These are two of the better teams in the Western Conference and that should bring out the best in both sides. Both teams also are going to be hungry for a win. The Thunder have lost 6 of 8, while Utah comes in having lost 2 of 3, getting upset as a favorite in both defeats.
I get the last time these two teams played they combined for a ridiculous 295 points, but that was a double-overtime game and it was also the first contest back from the All-Star break. UNDER is still 17-8 in the last 25 meetings overall and a dominant 10-2 in their last 12 meetings played in Utah.
UNDER is also 11-3 in the Thunder's last 14 road games when they are listed as an underdog on the spread and 12-2 in their last 14 after playing a game where they attempted 100 or more shots. Take the UNDER!
|03-07-19||Pacers v. Bucks OVER 221||98-117||Loss||-115||10 h 14 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Bucks OVER
The Pacers and Bucks should have zero problem eclipsing the total set by the books in Thursday's showdown on TNT. Milwaukee is one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Bucks are averaging 117.3 ppg on the season and that goes up to 119.6 ppg at home. They have shot under 39% from the field in each of their last 2 games, yet still averaged 108 points in those contests.
Pacers have scored 100+ in each of their last 7 games, a stretch in which they are averaging 113.4 ppg. If they can just hit the 110 mark in this one, this game is going to fly past the number. Keep in mind they have allowed 110 or more points in 6 of their last 7. Take the OVER!
|03-01-19||Hornets v. Nets OVER 227.5||123-112||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets OVER
The Nets and Hornets should have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. This is an ideal matchup for a high-scoring game. Both teams come in in good form offensively. Charlotte is averaging 110 ppg over their last 5, which is pretty impressive given they are only shooting 43.8% from the field during this stretch. Brooklyn is averaging 116.2 ppg and have also not shot well (44.1%). Nets also expected to get back a big offensive piece tonight in Spencer Dinwiddie.
Not only are both teams scoring a lot, but they are both not playing a bunch of defense. Hornets have allowed 110+ in each of their last 5 games. As for the Nets, they have allowed 113 or more in 8 of their last 9. OVER is 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-0 in the Nets last 5 vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the OVER!
|02-26-19||Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 237||112-121||Win||100||15 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Thunder UNDER
I'm not sure why the books have the total here as high as they do, but I'll gladly back the UNDER. We just saw a similar total in Denver's last game at home against the Clippers. The total for that contest was 235.5 and the two teams combined for 119.
UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Nuggets last 5 overall and a big reason for that is this a better defense team than they get credit for. No doubt they are going to come to play on that side of the ball against a team like OKC. Thunder just has a total of 240 in their last game against the Kings and failed to eclipse the mark. OKC also shot a mere 38% in the process.
UNDER is 13-2 this season in games involving the Thunder with a spread of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in OKC's last 29 as an underdog. UNDER is also 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, which includes two meetings earlier this season that failed to eclipse 210 points. Take the UNDER!
|02-24-19||Magic v. Raptors UNDER 219||113-98||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Raptors UNDER
I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are calling for in Sunday's afternoon tilt between the Magic and Raptors. Orlando has really been playing well of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They held 3 of their final 4 opponents going into the break under 90 points. While they gave up 110 in a loss to Chicago in the first game back, they held the Bulls to just 44.4% shooting.
This is one of those "measuring stick" games for the Magic against a team like Toronto, so we can bank on a big effort here on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto is a better defensive team than they get credit for and are only going to get better once the new pieces, like Marc Gasol get more comfortable with their new teammates.
UNDER is 22-9 in the Magic's last 31 road games off a home loss by 3-points or less and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-19||Wizards v. Hornets OVER 231||110-123||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Wizards OVER
The Wizards and Hornets are going to have zero problem eclipsing the total set by the books tonight. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw a combined 256 points in a 130-126 win for Washington. That's now 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two that have finished OVER the mark.
Washington is just a perfect team to play with the OVER. The Wizards rank in the Top 10 in the league in pace of play, they are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and the bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Charlotte also ranks top half of the league in offensive efficiency and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. No surprise these two played such a high-scoring game the first time around.
Adding to this is a great system. OVER 63-35 (64%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 210 or more where one team (WASH) has gone over the total by 24 or more points in their last 3 games and the other (CHA) has gone under the total by 48 or more in their last 10. Take the OVER!
|02-11-19||Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 231.5||111-120||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
I think we are going to get a big defensive effort from both of these teams, which will have this game staying well below the big total set by the books. These are two division rivals fighting for a top seed in the Western Conference. OKC is currently No. 3 in the standings, but are just 3-games ahead of Portland.
The Thunder have already won each of the first two meetings, and can secure the tie-breaker with a win here (teams meet one last time in early March). That really makes this one important for Portland, who is also going to be highly motivated coming off a loss at Dallas where they blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead.
UNDER is 21-10-1 in the Thunder's last 32 vs a team with a winning record, 13-4 in the Blazers last 17 division games and 17-7 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER!
|02-09-19||Wizards v. Bulls OVER 220.5||134-125||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wizards/Bulls OVER
We cashed in an easy winner on the Bulls/Nets OVER last night, as those two combined for 231. While Chicago was playing in a shootout, the Wizards combined for 225 to go OVER the total with the Cavs.
It just continued a trend of high-scoring games for both of these teams. The OVER has cashed in the Wizards last 4 and 6 of their last 7. The OVER is also cashed in 4 of the last 5 for the Bulls. Washington has scored 115+ in 4 straight and have allowed 130+ in 3 of their last 4. The only team not to reach the mark is the worthless Cavs. Bulls have scored 118+ in 3 straight and 100 or more in every game since Jan. 4. Take the OVER!
|02-08-19||Bulls v. Nets OVER 223.5||Top||125-106||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Nets OVER
The Bulls/Nets should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The average score in Chicago's last 5 games is 225.2 and for Brooklyn the average score in their last 5 games is 226.6.
Bulls defense has been non-existent in their last 2, giving up 125 to both the Pelicans and Hornets. Chicago's offense on the other hand is shooting lights out, having hit 50% from the field in each of their last 4. Brooklyn just gave up 130 to the Nuggets in a game that saw 265 total points scored, as both teams shot over 50% from the field.
OVER is 32-18 in the Bulls last 50 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points (last 3 seasons). OVER is also 6-1 lat 7 for Chicago on the road against a team with a winning home record.
Adding even more value here is a big time system that has cashed 76% over the last 5 seasons. The OVER is 44-14 in the month of February when you have a game with a 1st half total greater than 100 and a team (Nets) that went over the total by more than 30 points in their last game. Take the OVER!
|02-06-19||Rockets v. Kings UNDER 234||127-101||Win||100||15 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Kings UNDER
A lot of people are just going to look at how high-scoring these two teams are and just assume that they will easily eclipse the total set here by the books. The thing is, the books have adjusted, especially on Sacramento. The UNDER is 11-2-1 in the Kings last 14 games.
OVER has cased in each of the Rockets last 4 games, but the UNDER is a strong 13-6 in Houston's last 19 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also a staggering 17-3 in the Rockets last 20 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER!
|01-11-19||Bulls v. Warriors UNDER 222||109-146||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls UNDER
The books have missed the mark here with the total in this one. People just see the Warriors and automatically assume it's going to be a high-scoring game. I don't think we see an offensive explosion in this one. The Warriors are so much better than Chicago that it's going to be extremely hard for Golden State to show up for this one.
On the flip side of this, the Bulls are a young team that is going to play their hearts out to see how they stack up against the defending champs. Don't be fooled by the 149-124 Warriors win at Chicago earlier this season. The Bulls were missing a ton of players to injury and if anything that result will make them focus that much more on the defensive side of the ball.
UNDER is 12-3-1 in the Warriors last 16 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 11-3 in the Bulls last 14 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER!
|01-11-19||Cavs v. Rockets OVER 218||Top||113-141||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Rockets OVER
The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. Houston and Cleveland should have no problem eclipsing 220 points and there's a potential for them to fly by the number. Houston can light up the scoreboard, especially when James Harden has it going like he does now.
Last 3 games the Cavs have allowed 140 at New Orleans, 123 to the Pacers and 133 to the Pelicans at home. Each of their last 7 opponents have eclipsed 110 points. I think Houston could easily top 130 and we should see the Cavs score at least 100. Rockets haven't allowed fewer than 100 since the middle of December and are just not the same defensive team without Chris Paul in the lineup.
OVER is 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER!
|01-01-19||76ers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5||119-113||Win||100||12 h 48 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers UNDER
There's simply too much value to pass up on here with the UNDER. I get the Clippers have been a part of a lot of high-scoring games of late, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and we should get a max effort here defensively from the 76ers after their embarrassing 34-point loss to the Blazers, where they gave up 129 points and allowed Portland to shoot 59% from the field.
UNDER is 64-42 in the 76ers last 106 games after they allow 120 or more points and an amazing 15-4 in their last 19 road games after a blowout loss by 30 or more points. Take the UNDER!
|12-31-18||Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 201||101-113||Loss||-109||10 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Grizzlies UNDER
If you have watched Memphis play at all, you know that they are an ideal team to be involved in a low-scoring game. While everyone else is trying to speed it up and stretch the floor, the Grizzlies are grinding out possessions and trying to win games with their defense.
It hasn't worked great for them of late, as they are just 3-8 in their last 11, but they have won 2 of their last 3 and we can bank on a big effort here, as Memphis just lost at home to Houston on 12/15.
The other key here is that the Rockets will have to play this one without Eric Gordon and they are already without Chris Paul. Gordon averages 15.7 ppg. That means the only healthy double-digit score for Houston besides James Harden is big man Clint Capela. As good as Harden is, he can't do it all and Memphis is going to make him work.
All this should add up to a very low-scoring game. Take the UNDER!
|12-30-18||Pistons v. Magic UNDER 205||107-109||Loss||-108||6 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons UNDER
This is an ideal matchup for a low-scoring grind it out type of game. Both the Magic and Pistons rank in the bottom 5 in the league in offensive efficiency. While both have struggled to score, they have played hard defensively and both are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency. Another key here is pace and while the Pistons are 14th in pace, Orlando is 26th.
UNDER is 10-4-1 in the Pistons last 15 games and 8-4 in Orlando's last 12. UNDER is also 20-7 in the Magic's last 27 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-0 in Detroit's last 5 vs the Southeast Division. Take the UNDER!
|12-25-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 223.5||Top||114-121||Loss||-106||20 h 59 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Celtics UNDER
I love the UNDER here in this division clash between the 76ers and Celtics. There's a ton of talent on both teams and these are two teams that are believed to have a legit shot at winning the Eastern Conference. I think both are going to be out to make a statement here and we are going to get max effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball.
These two played back in October and the Celtics won 105-87 for a combined total of just 193 points. That game had a total of 211.5. I get the 76ers have added Jimmy Butler since that game, but he's an elite defender and we got plenty of wiggle room here with this total north of 220.
The average score in the 76ers last 17 division road games is 214.5. The average score in the Celtics last 15 division home games is 207.1. Take the UNDER!
|12-25-18||Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 227||109-95||Win||100||14 h 28 m||Show|
3* Bucks/Knicks NBA Total Winner on Knicks UNDER
I love the value here with the Knicks as a double-digit dog and this game staying well UNDER the mark on the total.
New York is way undervalued here because of the fact that they have lost 4 straight and are just 1-9 in their last 10. They have been competitive in a lot of these losses and we know we are going to get a max effort here at home against a team like the Bucks.
These two teams have already played twice this year and both times the Knicks have kept it within single-digits. In fact, they won outright earlier this month at home as a 8-point dog.
That last meeting was very high-scoring, which is why we are seeing such a high total here. There's just a different defensive intensity that teams play with on Christmas Day. I also think this early start time will have both offenses struggling to get going. Take New York & UNDER!
|12-08-18||Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 208||111-88||Loss||-110||11 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Lakers OVER
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. I get the low number here with Memphis and their tendency for lower-scoring games, but I just don't think these two will be bringing the defensive intensity in this one.
Both teams are on no rest, as the Lakers played at San Antonio last night in a shootout (lost 133-120) and the Grizzlies were in a dog fight at New Orleans (won 107-103). I think both teams easily reach the 100-point mark in this one and I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ended up a closer to 225.
OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, including 3-1-1 in the last 5 games played at Memphis. Take the OVER!
|12-01-18||Bulls v. Rockets OVER 220||105-121||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Rockets OVER
The Bulls and Rockets should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. A big reason for that is both teams don't figure to be exerting a lot of energy on the defensive side, as each team will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game overall in the last 4 days.
Houston's offense has really gotten better since the start of the season and they put up 136 last night in San Antonio and are averaging 118.8 ppg over their last 5. Chicago is giving up 113.8 ppg on the road and will have no answer for Harden and company.
Key here is that while the Bulls offense is limited, the Rockets defense has been slipping of late. Houston has allowed at least 105 in 7 straight games and I just don't see this game being close enough to where they feel they have to lock down defensively.
OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Rockets last 7 after scoring 100 or more points, 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-0 last 4 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER!
|11-26-18||Magic v. Warriors UNDER 215||Top||110-116||Loss||-105||11 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Warriors UNDER
Books have completely missed the mark here. The Warriors will be without both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Sure they still have KD and Klay Thompson, but it's just not the same without those two on the court.
Not to mention we know the Magic are going to give max effort here on the defensive side of the ball, as everyone brings it when they get a shot at Golden State and they have to be thinking about potentially stealing a win with the Warriors short-handed.
I think Golden State matches that defensive intensity as they have really played well on that side of the ball the last two games and this Orlando offense is limited and haven't shot it great of late.
Look for a slower than normal pace and for this to fly under the mark set by the books. UNDER is 26-10-1 in Warriors last 37 off a game they didn't cover the spread and 4-1 in Magic's last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take UNDER!
|11-20-18||Nets v. Heat UNDER 216.5||104-92||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/Heat UNDER
Total is too high here for this matchup. Brooklyn's not the same offensive team after losing their leading scorer in Caris LeVert and Miami's offense doesn't run the same without starting point guard Goran Dragic, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Heat have failed to score 100 points in each of their last 2, including a mere 97 last time out at home to the Lakers, who aren't exactly a top notch defensive team. Add in the familiarity with these two teams having just played each other a week ago, I look for both offenses to struggle to get going. In large part because I think Miami's defense will show up in a big way here, but the offense will continue to struggle to score without Dragic.
UNDER 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in this series. It's also 7-2 in Miami's last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 in the Nets last 10 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!
|11-18-18||Knicks v. Magic OVER 215||117-131||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic OVER
These two teams will have no problem going over the total here, as both sides don't play much defense. New York comes in allowing 116.3 ppg on the road, where opponents are shooting 48% from the field and 37.4% from deep. It's very similar in Orlando, where the Magic are giving up 111 ppg at home, while letting opponents shoot 47.5% and 39% from deep.
Last game for the Magic they combined for 147 at home against the Lakers. Each of New York's last two have seen 130+. Over is also 10-3 in Orlando's last 13 off a win by double-digits and 21-9 in the Knicks last 30 when they enter a contest having failed to cover 4 of 5 of their last 6. Take the OVER!
|11-17-18||Clippers v. Nets UNDER 222||127-119||Loss||-110||8 h 8 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Clippers UNDER
Books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Saturday's NBA action between the Clippers and Nets. LAC is coming off a big 3-game home stand where they went 3-0 with wins over the Bucks, Warriors and Spurs. Now they travel across the country for game against the Nets, who are without Caris LeVert and might be missing Hollis-Jefferson.
UNDER has cashed 5 of the last 6 times that the Clippers have made the trip to Brooklyn. UNDER is also 25-12 in Brooklyn's last 37 as a home dog of 6 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 at home off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER!
|11-14-18||Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 210.5||82-111||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls/Celtics UNDER
The Bulls have been an UNDER machine with the struggles they are having offensively combined with the effort they are giving on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 3-0 in Chicago's last 3, 6-1 in their last 7 and 9-3 in their last 12.
Considering Boston comes in having lost 4 of 5 over a 5-game road trip with the only win against the Suns, I have to believe they give a big effort defensively to make sure they get back on track. As for the offense, they haven't been shooting well of late. They scored just 94 and shot 38.7% from the field last time out against the Blazers. Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 to 107 or less and if they can simply do that, this won't come close to the number set here. Take the UNDER!
|11-13-18||Rockets v. Nuggets UNDER 215||109-99||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets UNDER
I don't see this one coming close to the total set by the books. It's hard to explain how the Rockets went from such an offensive juggernaut to one that is headed into the middle of November ranked 28th in the NBA at 102.7 ppg. They put up 115 at home last time out against the Pacers, but had gone 4 straight games prior to that where they failed to hit 100 (scored fewer than 90 twice).
The Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring game against Milwaukee at home, where they lost 121-114. That's now 3 straight losses for Denver after their 9-1 start. I don't think their early success was a fluke and this should be a max effort spot defensively for the Nuggets to snap their skid.
While the offense has been a disaster for Houston the defense has been really good. The Rockets are allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. They got no choice but to keep playing hard on that side of the ball as they try to dig themselves out of their poor start. Take the UNDER!
|11-12-18||Spurs v. Kings OVER 217||99-104||Loss||-105||12 h 30 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Kings OVER
Books have missed the mark here with the total in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Kings. I just think this is a big overreaction to what we have seen of late from both teams. San Antonio lost 88-95 at Miami and then won 96-89 at home against the Rockets in their last two. Both of those extremely low scoring. Same thing with Sacramento's last game, as they combined for just 187 in a 101-86 loss at home to the Lakers.
I look for both teams to get back on track offensively. Kings simply had a bad night at the office against LA. Sacramento has been one of the top offenses in the league early on. They are scoring 115.3 ppg and rank in the top half of the league in both effective field goal percentage and offensive efficiency.
While the offense has been great, they are giving up 116.8 ppg and the Spurs come in averaging 114.7 ppg on the road. San Antonio is only giving up 107.9 ppg on the season, but are allowing 112.0 ppg away from home. Take the OVER!
|11-11-18||Hawks v. Lakers UNDER 241||106-107||Win||100||12 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Hawks UNDER
There's just too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with this ridiculously high total. I know both of these teams are scoring at a decent clip and have had their struggles defensively, but I just don't see the pace being where it needs to be to eclipse this number.
Lakers will be in the second game of a back-to-back set, as they played at Sacramento last night. Hawks had yesterday off, but this is their first game out west and will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.
LA won 101-86 over the Kings last night, holding a red-hot Sacramento offense to just 34.8% shooting. I think they are going to be a lot stronger defensively now that they got Tyson Chandler. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Laker's last 5 off a win and 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Take the UNDER!
|11-10-18||Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 220.5||112-128||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks/Raptors UNDER
I think we could see a bit of a sluggish start here for Toronto. You have an earlier start time than normal with the 3:05 EST tip. You also have the Raptors having not played since Wednesday when they concluded a 4 game road trip in Sacramento.
I also think with some fresh legs we could see Toronto get after it a little more defensively with this being a division game and the Knicks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. New York has scored 108 or less in 5 of their last 6 and average just 105 ppg on the road.
UNDER is 6-2 in Toronto's last 8 vs a team with a losing record, as well as 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER!
|11-08-18||Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 238.5||Top||134-111||Loss||-110||14 h 41 m||Show|
5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER
This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg.
I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go.
UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|11-06-18||Hawks v. Hornets OVER 231||102-113||Loss||-103||7 h 12 m||Show|
4* NBA Southeast TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER
The books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Atlanta has played in 3 straight shootouts that have gone over the total, but I expect a much better defensive effort here on 2 days of rest. Hawks are also off a win and cover. UNDER is 21-5 in Atlanta's last 26 off a cover and 8-2 in their last 10 on 2 days of rest.
I also think Atlanta's offense could struggle to reach their season average of 110.8 ppg. Charlotte's defense was on point last time out, holding the Cavs to just 94 points. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field.
UNDER is also a solid 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER!
|11-05-18||Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 214.5||116-115||Loss||-105||9 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Knicks UNDER
Hard to not like the value here with the UNDER at this price. Chicago's playing short-handed early on this season, as they are without starters Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, as well as key reserves Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine. In their last 6 games they have scored 107 or fewer points in 5 games. The only exception was against Golden State when the Warriors gave up 74 points in the 2nd half with the game way out of reach.
New York is in a similar spot, as they are still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to play his first game. Rookie Kevin Knox and Courtney Lee are both out and now leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. may not be able to play, as he's dealing with a back injury. He's listed as questionable, but given this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back (played last night in Washington), have to think he will be given the night off.
Just not enough offensive talent here to eclipse the total set here and both teams are playing hard defensively. UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 Knicks games when they are facing a team with a losing record and 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 off a SU loss. Take UNDER!
|11-05-18||Rockets v. Pacers OVER 212||Top||98-94||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER
The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one.
Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep.
With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER!
|11-04-18||Magic v. Spurs UNDER 209||117-110||Loss||-115||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Spurs UNDER
These two teams could have a difficult time just getting to 200 points. While scoring is up for the league as a whole, the Magic haven't caught on board. There's teams out there scoring 120+ on a nightly basis. Orlando has hit 100 points just 3 times in 8 games. Their last 3 games they have scored, 91, 99 and 95.
Spurs are always a great fundamental team and execute at a high level. They are really playing well defensively right now, as they are giving up just 99.8 ppg over their last 4. San Antonio will have no problem keeping this Magic offense in check. I'm willing to be the Spurs won't score enough to eclipse this mark.
UNDER is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 vs a team with a losing record 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 vs a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER!
|11-02-18||Wolves v. Warriors UNDER 240||99-116||Win||100||17 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Wolves UNDER
I just think that given how good the Warriors offense has been early on and this being a nationally televised game on ESPN, we are seeing quite the inflated total for tonight's showdown between Golden State and Minnesota.
Last time out the Timberwolves knocked off the Jazz 128-125 as a 7-point home dog, which is worth noting, as the UNDER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. Not to mention, there's no doubt the Timberwolves are going to give everything they got against the Warriors, regardless of the tension inside the locker room.
UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 games against the Western Conference and 7-2-1 in their last 10 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these two franchises. Take the UNDER!
|11-02-18||Thunder v. Wizards UNDER 229||134-111||Loss||-105||14 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder UNDER
I'm expecting a big time effort here from Washington at home, as they try and get things going in the right direction after their 1-6 start. They still haven't won a game on their home court this season. You can count on them laying it all on the line here and it will certainly help that Dwight Howard is going to make his season debut.
Big reason Washington has struggled is their defense and lack of rebounding, the two areas that Howard figures to impact the most. As for OKC and them not going off to push this over, this is a tough spot for the Thunder. They are coming off a 111-107 win at Charlotte last night, where they had to use a ton of energy rallying from a 19-point 2nd half deficit. I just think that effort and the travel will have them playing at a slower pace than normal.
UNDER is 31-13 in OKC's last 44 as a road dog, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 110 or more points in 3 straight games. Take the UNDER!
|11-01-18||Kings v. Hawks UNDER 231||146-115||Loss||-110||11 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Hawks UNDER
The Kings come into this one off a 107-99 win at Orlando as a 4.5-point dog, while Atlanta enters off an ugly 136-114 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point dog. Those two results set up a very profitable system on tonight's game going under the total.
UNDER is 40-13 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off an upset win as a road dog (Kings) playing against a team off a blowout road loss by 20 or more points.
It's also worth noting the Kings have won 4 straight as an underdog and are now 5-3 on the season, which sets up another profitable system, as the UNDER is 23-5 (82%) with a total of 200 or more with a team off 2 or more outright wins as a road dog and have a winning record on the season. Take the UNDER!
|11-01-18||Thunder v. Hornets UNDER 227.5||111-107||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Hornets UNDER
Books have set the total too high for tonight's NBA action that has the Hornets hosting the Thunder. Both these teams are playing well coming into this game and I expect big efforts from each side on the defensive end.
OKC has played well defensively this year and will be extra-motivated to get their first road win of the season. Charlotte has also been a strong defensive team early on and will definitely be up for this one against Westbrook and company.
UNDER is 30-13 in OKC's last 43 as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 vs a team with a winning record.
There's also a great system in play. UNDER is 27-8 (77%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with a team off a home win by 10 or more against an opponent off a home win where they score at least 110 points. This system fits both of these teams! Take the UNDER!
|11-01-18||Clippers v. 76ers OVER 229||Top||113-122||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER
Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same.
Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points.
76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER!
|10-31-18||Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 223||Top||125-128||Loss||-110||13 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER
The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse.
Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks.
Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights.
Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!
|10-28-18||Suns v. Thunder OVER 219||110-117||Win||100||1 h 25 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on over
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|10-27-18||Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230||106-110||Win||100||17 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER
Great value here with the UNDER Saturday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs will host LeBron James and the Lakers. LA has been in a bunch of high-scoring games so far this season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 and all 5 have seen at least 235 points. That includes a ridiculous 143-142 Spurs win in LA on 10/22.
I think having just played each other will have both teams much better prepared defensively, which should lead to a lot lower-scoring game. I also don't think the pace will be there for the Lakers, who are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights.
I know the Lakers have been allowing teams to shoot extremely well from the field, but the UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 after 3 straight games allowing teams to shoot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!
|10-26-18||Warriors v. Knicks UNDER 229.5||128-100||Win||100||18 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Knicks UNDER
Public loves to back the OVER in games involving the Warriors and will be running to get their ticket on the OVER after Golden State just put up 144 points at home against the Wizards, which saw a combined score of 166. Even with that high-scoring game, the UNDER has cashed in 3 of the Warriors 5 games this season.
I just don't think we are going to see 230 points between Golden State and New York. The Knicks just don't have the fire-power offensively and are coming off a game against Miami where they scored just 87 points on 36.3% shooting.
Everyone focuses on the offense of the Warriors, but this is a great defensive team. Opponents are only shooting 42.5% from the field against them. They are exceptional at defending the 3-pointer, as opponents are only hitting 29.3% from deep.
UNDER is 19-9 in the Warriors last 28 after two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 125 or more and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the UNDER!
|10-25-18||Celtics v. Thunder OVER 211||101-95||Loss||-110||28 h 12 m||Show|
4* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Thunder OVER
Boston has been such a good defense team under Brad Stevens and to no surprise they lead the league in defensive efficiency right out of the gate. The thing is, they have had two really good defensive efforts at home, holding the 76ers to 87 and the Magic to 93, but have allowed 113 (@ Toronto) and 101 (@ New York) in their two road games.
Oklahoma City put up 120 points in Westbrook's first game back and this team is going to score a lot of points with him and George both healthy. While the offense should be great for the Thunder, the defense is still a work in progress. They also gave up 131 points and let the Kings shoot 54.9% from the field in Westbrook's first game back.
Boston has a more than capable offense and I look for them to have no problem keeping pace offensively with OKC, who is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, despite Westbrook not playing in their first two games. Take the OVER!
|10-23-18||76ers v. Pistons UNDER 218||132-133||Loss||-105||9 h 43 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE on Sixers/Pistons UNDER
With Ben Simmons doubtful to play for Philadelphia, I don't see these two teams coming close to the total set here by the books. Without Simmons running the point, the 76ers aren't going to get near as many easy looks, as he's one of the best passers in the game.
We also saw this Philadelphia team struggle in their only other road game this season, scoring just 87 points at Boston. As for Detroit, they may be without big man Andre Drummond, who is scoring 17 ppg and 6.5 offensive rebounds. It's also worth noting that while the Pistons are averaging 110.5 ppg, the teams they have played are giving up on average 116.7 ppg, so they aren't as potent as you might think.
These two teams both pick up the defensive intensity against quality opponents. UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|10-22-18||Knicks v. Bucks OVER 226||113-124||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks OVER
I look for the Bucks and Knicks to have no problem cashing in the OVER in Monday's NBA action. This is not your same old Milwaukee team from previous years. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has put a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot and it's shown.
The Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers and made 8.8 per game last year. While it's really early, in their first two games they have averaged 40 attempts and 15.5 made 3-pointers. They have combined for 225 against the Hornets and 119 against the Pacers, two good defensive teams.
Now they face the a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in all 3 of their games and despite shooting just 42.4% from the field, New York is averaging 110.7 ppg.
OVER is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35 off two straight games where they went over the total and 17-3 in their last 20 after two straight with a combined score of 215 or more.
We also find a great system in play, as the OVER has gone 44-18 (71%) since 1996 in games where you have a total of 210 or more, where the road team is off a loss by 3-points or less against a team that scored 115 or more in their previous game. Take the OVER!
|10-21-18||Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 231||98-100||Win||100||13 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER
While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here.
Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright.
Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%.
I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER!
|10-20-18||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 235.5||124-115||Loss||-110||14 h 6 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night Total MASSACRE on Rockets/Lakers UNDER
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in tonight's highly anticipated showdown between the Rockets and Lakers, which will mark the home debut of LeBron James in LA. The Rockets saw 243 combined points in their opener against the Pelicans, but it was New Orleans not Houston who lit up the scoreboard.
The Lakers saw a 147 combined points in their opener against the Blazers, but they had just 119 to Portland's 128. I really liked the effort we got from LA and this is a team that really needs to play hard defensively to have a chance with their lack of 3-point shooting. With this being James' first home game, I think we get a max effort here from both sides on the defensive end, as each wants to avoid the 0-2 start.
UNDER is 7-1 in the Rockets last 8 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 off a loss. UNDER is also 11-1 in Houston's last 12 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER!
|10-19-18||Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 218||124-123||Loss||-105||15 h 17 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER
The total here has been set way too high for tonight's game between the Warriors and Jazz. I think we are getting the value, due to the fact that Utah gave up 117 points on the road to the Kings, but that was more of the Jazz knowing they didn't need a max effort on the defensive side of the ball to beat the likes of Sacramento.
When Rudy Gobert has been in the lineup, this Utah team has been one of the top defensive teams in the league. There's no question we are going to get the very best they have to offer on that side of the ball against the defending champs.
While the Warriors are definitely capable of going off, they only managed 108 points at home in their opener against OKC. What we did see from Golden State in their opener was some great defense, as they held the Thunder to just 36.3% shooting. I think we see a very similar outcome to that OKC game, where this comes in around 205-210 points. Take the UNDER!
|10-18-18||Bulls v. 76ers OVER 216.5||108-127||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Sixers OVER
This might seem like a big number after watching the 76ers offense manage just 87 points in their opener at Boston, but that Celtics defense is one of the best in the league. That performance isn't going to sit well with Philadelphia and I look for them to come out and lay it on the Bulls offensively at home.
The key here is that while Chicago is missing a couple key players, they finally have some nice pieces in place to run the up-tempo offense that Hoiberg wants to play. The Bulls got some nice young talent and their only hope of winning is to outscore the opposition. I look for both teams easily eclipse 100 points and for this one to finish a lot closer to 230 than 220.
In the last two seasons the OVER is 26-10 in the Bulls 36 games when they have been listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and the OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Take the OVER!
|10-16-18||Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 224||100-108||Win||100||29 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA Opening Night Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Warriors UNDER
The public loves to bet the OVER in Warriors' games and with this being a prime time game that's going to get a ton of action, I think the books have inflated the number quite a bit, creating some big time value on the UNDER.
Note that the UNDER has been a really strong play in this series. All 4 meetings last year went UNDER the posted total set by the books and two of the 4 failed to reach 200 combined points. Going back even further, the UNDER has cashed in 13 of the last 16 meetings, including a dominant 9-1 mark when they meet up at Golden State.
UNDER is also 33-18 in OKC's last 51 as an underdog and we could see this thing stay well below the mark if Russell Westbrook doesn't suit up for the Thunder. Take the UNDER!
|05-26-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212||86-115||Loss||-115||13 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Warriors OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Rockets. The last two games in this series have been extremely low-scoring given the offensive fire-power both of these teams possess. As a result we have seen the total go from 227.5 in Game 4 to 219.5 in Game 5 and now it's sitting at 212.
I just don't think we are going to see the same intensity defensively from the Rockets in this one. Houston really suffered a big blow with the injury to Chris Paul, who we know for sure won't play in this one. I think his absence will really be felt on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, the Warriors can't continue to play this poorly offensively. If Houston doesn't show up, they could put up a big number here. Take the OVER!
|05-25-18||Celtics v. Cavs OVER 201.5||99-109||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
3* Celtics/Cavs Total DESTROYER on Celtics/Cavs OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, which has the Cavs hosting the Celtics. I think we are getting a favorable price here after an extremely low-scoring Game 5 in Boston, where the two teams combined for just 179 points with a total of 204.5.
These two teams have really fed off their home crowd. Boston's energy and defense at home has made life miserable for Cleveland. In the 3 games played at the Celtics arena, the Cavs have scored 83, 94 and 83 points. It was a completely different story at home, where the scored 116 in Game 3 and 111 in Game 4, both times shooting at least 49% from the field.
I look for the Cavs to be able to get that offense going once again at home in Game 6. I also think that Cleveland is starting to wear down and don't think the defensive intensity will be quite what it was in their previous 2 homes games. Keep in mind Boston scored 96 in Game 5, despite shooting a mere 36.5% from the field, so 100+ from them is well within reach. Take the OVER!
|05-22-18||Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 225||95-92||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* Rockets/Warriors Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Warriors UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors. Golden State's 41-point blowout win in Game 3 saw a combined score of just 211 points. Two of the three games in the series have now finished UNDER the total. The only exception coming in Game 2, where it barely went over with a combined score of 232 and a total of 225.
I just think the perception here is the Warriors will continue to light it up offensively and the Rockets can't be any worse than they were in Game 3. Houston will be better, but they are also going to bring a lot more intensity on defense. This a huge game for both sides. The Warriors want to take a 3-1 lead and the Rockets want to take back home court and go back to Houston tied 2-2. Expect max effort defensively from both teams, which should keep us below the mark. Take the UNDER!
|05-21-18||Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207||Top||102-111||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all.
Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last.
The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER!
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 206||86-116||Win||100||50 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Cavs UNDER
I like the value here with UNDER in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Each of the first two games finished below the total set by the books. I'm expecting another low-scoring contest with Cleveland's backs against the wall.
The Cavs are down 0-2 and are in a do-or-die scenario. That means we are going to get the very best Cleveland has to offer on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, Boston's offense hasn't been nearly as efficient on the road as it has at home in the postseason.
I also don't see Cleveland going off here. The Celtics have put together a great game-plan on how to defend the Cavs. They held them to 83 in Game 1 with a sub-par game from James and still held them to 94 in Game 2 with LeBron going off for 42 points and recording a triple-double. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER!
|05-14-18||Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225.5||119-106||Win||100||121 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs 'Rockets/Warriors' Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER
You can check my free pick for who I would lean towards for the spread, but I believe the real value in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is with the total. I think the books have set the bar way too high for this one.
All the media talks about is the star power both of these teams have and how great both sides are on the offensive end of the floor. What people don't realize is just how good these two teams are defensively. These two are ranked 1-2 in defensive efficiency in the postseason and there's no question that both are going to be locked in on that side of the ball.
UNDER is 12-1 this season in Rockets' games when they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. UNDER is also 5-1 in Houston's last 6 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. UNDER is 21-8-1 in the Warriors last 30 after giving up 100 or more in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Take the UNDER!
|05-07-18||Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214||93-128||Loss||-110||12 h 3 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Raptors and Cavs on Monday. After flying over the total in the first two games in Toronto, the two teams combined for just 208 points and finished well below the mark of 214 in Game 3. The deeper the series goes the better the defense gets for both sides, as they know what the other team is trying to do offensively.
Throw in this being a big letdown spot for Cleveland with a commanding 3-0 lead and how big this game is for the Raptors, I think we are going to see the lowest-scoring game of the series so far. UNDER is now 5-1 in the Cavs last 6 at home and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 away from home. Take the UNDER!
|05-05-18||Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 207.5||Top||101-98||Win||100||30 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round.
The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER!
|05-02-18||Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 206.5||116-108||Loss||-110||57 h 55 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Rockets UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Rockets and Jazz. Game 1 ended up just finishing below the total at 206 points and that was with the Jazz shooting 50% from the field and the Rockets connecting on 17 3-pointers. Houston ended up winning the game by 14 points (110-96).
I think we are going to see a much lower-scoring Game 2. Utah is going to lay it all on the line here to try and salvage a split before returning home for Game 3 and simply didn't play up their standards defensively in Game 1. As for the Rockets, everyone pays close attention to their offense, but this is a really good defensive team and I expect them to be a lot better here in Game 2. Take the UNDER!
|05-01-18||Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 218||Top||113-112||Loss||-105||46 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play.
I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are.
UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER!
|04-30-18||76ers v. Celtics OVER 205||101-117||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Celtics OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's Game 1 action between the 76ers and Celtics. Boston's defense was the difference down the stretch of their first round series against the Bucks, but this 76ers offensive attack is a whole different beast. On top of that, it's only human nature for the Celtics to suffer a bit of a letdown here after playing in a win-or-go-home Game 7 just two days ago. That should show up a lot more on the defensive side of the ball.
Keep in mind that Philadelphia went up against a pretty strong Heat defense in their first round series and Miami couldn't keep them in check. The 76ers eclipsed 100 points in all 5 games, despite shooting under 43% in 3 of the 5 games. Philadelphia's tempo and ability to hit from long-range will be really hard for the Celtics to contain, especially with the 76ers being extremely well rested, as they last played almost a week ago (4/24). I look for both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark, making this an easy play for me. Take the OVER!
|04-29-18||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 205||96-110||Win||100||30 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz/Rockets OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Jazz in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. I just think the total here has been set way too low given how explosive the Rockets are on offense. Houston wasn't on their game early in their series against the Timberwolves, but they finished off Minnesota by scoring 119 and 124 in the final 2 games. Note they had 119 on the road in Game 4 despite shooting 43.5% from the field.
I think a lot of their struggles early had to do with them coasting down the stretch run of the regular-season. The Rockets are locked in and are going to be fresh off a full 3 days of rest. I just don't see the Jazz putting up much of a fight defensively in Game 1, as they just laid it all on the line in their series against OKC, which just ended on Friday. At the same time Utah's offense doesn't get near the respect it deserves. I see this one finishing a lot close to 220 than 200. Take the OVER!
|04-25-18||Jazz v. Thunder OVER 206.5||99-107||Loss||-111||19 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Game 5 between the Thunder and Jazz. Most times the deeper a series gets the more likely I'm to lean to the UNDER, but this is an exception. These two teams have went OVER the mark in 3 of the 4 games so far this series with the lowest combined total being 197. Each of the other 3 games all seen at least 209 points and I think we easily get to 210 in this one.
The reason we are find value is the Jazz are viewed as a great defensive team, but they have went OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, as they are a much better offensive team than they get credit for. Take the OVER!
|04-24-18||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 205||87-92||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Celtics UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's matchup between the Celtics and Bucks. The series is tied up at 2-2, as each team held serve on their home court. This is a massive game for both sides, as it's now a best of 3 series and whoever takes Game 5 has a huge edge. Needless to say the defensive intensity will be taken up another notch tonight.
You also have to factor in that this is now the 5th game between these two teams in the last 10 days. Both teams are extremely familiar with each other's gamelans and the deeper we get into a series the more of an edge it is for the defenses. Look for both teams to struggle to get going offensively in this one. Take the UNDER!
|04-20-18||Cavs v. Pacers OVER 208.5||90-92||Loss||-110||17 h 17 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Game 3 of the Cavs/Pacers series. The first two games of the series have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for just 178 points in Game 1 with a total of 212.5 and 197 in Game 2 with a total of 213. The books have made quite the adjustment for Game 3 with a total almost 5-points lower.
I just think tonight will be the night that these two light it up. The Pacers have really had their way with Cleveland's defense. The shot 46% from the field in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2. The Cavs defense doesn't figure to be as good on the road, while Indiana should be expected to shoot better at home. As for the Cavs offense, the role players simply can't play as poorly as they have in the first two games. Take the OVER!
|04-15-18||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 203||Top||107-113||Loss||-105||50 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two.
One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200.
UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER!
|04-14-18||Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 209||Top||92-113||Win||100||27 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER
I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him.
San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER!
|04-11-18||Jazz v. Blazers UNDER 201.5||93-102||Win||100||23 h 18 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's huge showdown between the Jazz and Blazers. While both teams have already secured a spot in the playoffs, the No. 3 seed and home court in the first round will be on the line in this game. I expect a playoff-like atmosphere and as a result a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting with this total.
Utah has really been locked in defensively down the stretch. The Jazz just held the Warriors to 79 points in their last game and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents under the century mark. They figure to have a good shot at keeping the Blazers under that mark, as Portland's offense has been out of sync here of late. While the offense might not be there, the Blazers should bring their 'A' game defensively at home. Take the UNDER!
|04-10-18||Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 213||79-119||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Jazz UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Warriors. Utah has clinched a playoff spot, but there's still a lot at stake. With a win over Golden State tonight, the Jazz will have a chance to overtake the Blazers for the No. 3 seed when they visit Portland tomorrow. Needless to say I think we get a great effort here from Utah, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
As for the Warriors, they have nothing to play for and are just going through the motions right now. With Curry already out with an injury, Golden State isn't going to push any of their stars in these last couple meaningless regular season games. With that said, I do expect whoever plays for the Warriors to compete and that should be all we need here to keep this well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER!
|04-08-18||Warriors v. Suns OVER 217||117-100||Push||0||11 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER
I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Warriors visiting the Suns. Golden State has nothing to play for down the stretch, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the west. It's really shown of late on the defensive side of the ball, as the Warriors have given up 126 in each of their last 2 games, allowing the Pacers to shoot 53.8% from the field on Thursday and the Pelicans to shoot 56.3% yesterday.
The offense for the Warriors has been much better of late and they should have no problem putting up a big number here against a horrible Suns defense. Phoenix comes in giving up 113.4 ppg and I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State got to 130 in this one. OVER is 6-1 in the Warriors last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 5-1 in the Suns last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|04-07-18||Nets v. Bulls UNDER 217||124-96||Loss||-105||11 h 47 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets vs Bulls UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the Nets. These two bottom feeders have absolutely zero to play for and I think it will be hard for both sides to get up for this game, as these two teams will turn around and play each other again on Monday.
Clearly these are two of the least talented teams in the league and both sides have key players out with injury. They last played in late February and the two teams combined for a mere 191 points. I would expect a little more offense this time around, but with the total where it's at, this is simply too good of a price to pass up.
UNDER is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER!