5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points.

After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City.

Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again.

Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home.

The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5
After blowing a 13-point lead in Game 1, and not wanting to fall into a 0-2 hole, expect Miami to be out for blood tonight.

The Heat, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, know they must tighten the screws on the defensive end after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot over 50%. I have no doubt Miami will be better defensively tonight as it has only allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better twice in these playoffs.

We have seen the way, LeBron James has been able to take his game to another level when the Heat had their back up against the wall in each of their previous two series. I don't expect him to wait in this series. After hearing all the talk that Kevin Durant is the best player in the NBA, James will be out to prove otherwise.

The value has lied with the road team in this matchup as the road squad is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It also can't be ignored that the Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points with Miami in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -5
The Thunder are 34-7 at home on the season, including a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder won this year's regular-season home meeting against the Heat by 16 points as their depth proved to be too much for Miami. Their depth and fresher legs will be the difference in this one.

It is also worth noting that plays on any excellent offensive team that averages 102 points or more per game that is matched up against a good defensive squad that holds its foes to 88-92 ppg, provided the "play on" side allowed 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with each of those wins coming by at least 5 points. Looking back, they are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games.

In addition, the Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when laying points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

In all, we have a 45-0 angle in our favor. Take the Thunder.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
After getting embarrassed in Game 6, and knowing that this may be their last chance to get back to the NBA Finals, expect the nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to leave it all on the floor tonight. Doing so should give Boston an opportunity to win.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Heat and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Miami. The C's have either won or lost by 8 points or less in 8 of the last 10 matchups.

Boston took it on the chin at home in Game 6 as LeBron James delivered a legendary performance, but it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU loss. In other words, this is a resilient team.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

I also like the edge Boston has with Doc Rivers. He has outcoached Erik Spoelstra in this series, and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +5
This experienced and accomplished San Antonio squad won't go down without a fight tonight.

Consider that road teams that have trailed their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight games in which it and its opponent scored 100 points or more are 39-13 ATS since 1996. The "play on" side has only lost by an average 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

In addition, the Spurs are 8-0 ATS since the beginning of last season in road games when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They have won these games by an average score of 102.9 to 96.4.

This could be the last chance for the nucleus of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to earn another championship ring. They won't easily hand over the torch to the Thunder. I like the Spurs chances of winning this one outright so we'll certainly take the insurance points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7.5
The Heat blew an opportunity to take complete control of the series with an overtime loss in Game 4. They now enter Game 5 with a greater sense of urgency, and I expect them to roll to comfortable win.

Boston has won 2 in a row and 2 of the last 3 games have gone to overtime and Miami is laying this many points? It's clear the books want the money on Boston tonight and they're getting it.

Whether or not Chris Bosh returns to action, I really like Miami here. Consider that the Heat have won at home versus Boston by 8 points or more in 6 of the last 8 meetings. Those 6 wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

In addition, Miami is 12-4 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It has won by an average score of 97.9 to 88.6 in this situation. It is also 15-5 ATS in home games after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. It has won by an average score of 103.5 to 86.5 in this situation. The Heat are even 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.

Just when it looked like Miami might be losing its grip in the Eastern Conference semis, it kicked it in high gear versus the Pacers. I expect a similar response tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5
Off back-to-back defeats on the road, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are 11-0 in their last 11 with a 16.4-point average margin of victory.

The Spurs are 23-5-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They are even 8-1 ATS this season in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that occurred this season. They have won by an average score of 106.7 to 91.4 in this situation.

The Thunder are 0-6 in their last in San Antonio, losing those games by an average of 10.3 points. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
I went against the Spurs in Game 3 as my NBA Game of the Year and it paid off big time as the Thunder ended San Antonio's 20-game win streak with a 20-point win. That, however, was the first time the Thunder had defeated the Spurs in the last 5 meetings. Expect the No. 1 seed in the West to bounce back strong tonight.

San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It hasn't just won in this situation, it has won by an average score of 106.4 to 93.4.

In addition, Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.

The Spurs were the best road team in the West this season, and they've either won or lost by 2 points or less in 6 of 8 all-time meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Spurs showing good value in the underdog role tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +2
Boston's goose is cooked. The Celtics played as well as they can play in Game 2, but it wasn't enough. Boston's core of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined to score 96 points, the most they've ever scored in a game together. After playing such heavy minutes in Game 2, I can't see any of these guys bouncing back to play as well in Game 3. We certainly can't expect another historic night from Rondo.

Miami is the younger, deeper team so it should be able to bounce back more easily from Wednesday's physically exhausting game.

This will be Boston's 4th game in 7 days, and it has been struggling when playing on just a days' rest at 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in this situation. The Celtics covered the spread in Game 2 but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover.

The Heat are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last 5 games, including 2-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games. We'll take the Heat.

5* NBA Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Down 0-2, it's do or die time for the Thunder knowing the history of teams that fall into an 0-3 hole. I expect them to "do" in impressive fashion on their home floor tonight.

The Thunder, who are 31-7 at home, have lost more than 2 consecutive games just once this season. In fact, OKC is 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average of 6.7 points in this situation.

The Thunder are 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Thunder are 5-0 at home in these playoffs where they have won by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
Boston took it on the chin in Game 1, but I'm not hesitating to take the resilient Celtics in Game 2.

Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly two months. It is 9-0 in its last 9 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 10.4 points.

The Heat rolled in Game 1, but we can't forget that the Celtics have still won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We also can't forget that Miami lost Game 2 of its previous series with the Pacers.

Rondo is the key tonight. I expect him to be very aggressive after a subpar effort by his standards in Game 1.

The Celtics are old, but they have the heart of a champion. We'll take the points as they take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +4.5
We have a strong NBA playoff system in our favor this evening as plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, provided they have a winning percentage of .750 or higher and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of .600 to .750, are 33-11 ATS since 1996. The favorite has only won by an average of 0.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system has produced a 7-1 ATS record the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, the Thunder are showing some nice value catching 4.5 points.

In addition, OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in this situation.

The Thunder are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 11.0 points. Take the Thunder and the points tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Boston has won 3 in a row versus Miami by 8 points or more and the Heat are laying 8? It's clear odds makers want the public on the Celtics here as they believe Boston won't be as fresh as Miami in Game 1 of this series.

The C's are coming off a grueling 7-game series and have only had 1 day of rest since closing out the 76ers. This is significant because Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Heat, who have had 3 days' rest since closing out the Pacers, are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days' rest.

In addition, the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as a favorite, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Also, the home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs, who have won 18 in a row, are in a groove. They have won their last two versus OKC (by 11 and 9 points), and they have won their last 4 at home versus OKC by an average of 12.5 points. The Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio.

The Spurs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Thunder rely on one-on-one play far too much for their scoring as they average just 18 assists per game, a number that drops to 17 on the road. The Spurs, meanwhile, average 23 assists per game, a number that rises to 24 at home. This is significant because San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus poor passing teams averaging 20 or fewer assists per game. The Spurs have defeated these teams by an average score of 116.9 to 101.3. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics -5.5
The Celtics haven't lost consecutive games since Apr. 4 and 5, and I don't expect them to start now. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss with an impressive 10.5-point margin of victory.

Boston has been nearly unbeatable on its home floor, winning 10 of its last 11 in the garden. It's 3-1 versus the 76ers during this stretch, winning those 3 contests by an average of 13.7 points.

This current core group of Celtics has a lot more experience in this type of situation than this young Philly squad. This group is 3-1 in Game 7's at home with those 3 victories coming by an average of 16.3 points.

Having had 2 days' rest in between games is also very beneficial to this veteran Celtics teams. The Celtics have had 2 days' rest twice in these playoffs and are 2-0 in the games following. After 2 day's rest following Game 4, Boston returned home to crush the 76ers by 16 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5
After getting beat up and embarrassed in Game 5 and getting called out by NBA legend Larry Bird, expect the Pacers to respond in a big way at home tonight.

The Heat have been overmatched on the interior without Chris Bosh in the lineup and are even more so now with Udonis Haslem receiving a one-game suspension. I expect the Pacers to really pound it inside, taking advantage of their superior size.

History is in our favor here as good teams that outscore their foes by 3 points or more per game are 143-88 ATS the last 5 seasons following a blowout loss of 15 points or more.

Also, home teams that are out for revenge for a road defeats of 10 points or more, provided they and their opponent both have winning percentages of .600 to .750, are 167-111 since 1996.

It is also worth noting that Indiana is on an 81-50 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It has won by an average score of 93.3 to 91.6 in this situation.

The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. And, the underdog is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings between these teams. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5.5
The Clippers didn't put up much of a fight in San Antonio, but I fully expect them to be a different team at home this afternoon.

Consider that LA is 13-4 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season. It has won by an average score of 95.7 to 91.1 in this situation.

In addition, the Clipps are a strong 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons. They have actually won these contests by an average score of 97.4 to 95.6.

It is also worth noting that LA is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Spurs only defeated the Clippers by 3 points in their only meeting in LA this season. The Clippers also won the previous home game against San Antonio. We'll take the points as the Clipps give the Spurs all they can handle.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Lakers +8
An embarrassing 29-point loss in Game 1 has certainly gotten LA's attention. Motivated by that defeat and hungry to steal away OKC's home-court advantage, expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight.

First off, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. When they were blown out by 15 at Denver in Game 3 of their first round series, they responded with a 4-point win. And when they were blown out by 17 in Game 6, they responded with a 9-point victory.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. After exploding to win Game 3 of their first round series by 16, they only defeated Dallas by 6 points in Game 4.

It is also worth noting that the Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat -6.5
The Heat did not play well in Game 1 and still won by 9. Rest assured, they'll play much better tonight. We are getting a nice number here because Chris Bosh is out. We'll gladly take it because I don't expect his absence to be detrimental. Miami is at its best when it is getting out in transition, and it'll look to run more without Bosh on the block.

The Heat are an awesome 32-5 at home on the season. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games winning those contests by an average of 14.6 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Heat are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Conference Semifinal games while the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. The Pacers are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss and 9-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -7.5
Memphis has all the momentum on its side following wins in Games 5 and 6, and I fully expect it to roll at home in Game 7 tonight.

The Grizzlies are more battle tested having played in a pair of tough playoff series last season. They are also the healthier side.

Memphis has won 6 of its last 8 at home versus the Clippers with one of those losses coming in Game 1 when it blew a 27-point lead. Keep in mind that those 6 wins have come by an average of 11.3 points.

According to a closing line of +2.5 at some books, the Clippers actually covered the spread in Friday's 2-point loss. That bodes extremely well for us as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they enter off an ATS victory in a game they lost SU, are 84-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

It's also important to note that the Clippers are only 1-11 ATS off a cover in a game they lost SU over the last 2 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Also, the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -5.5
The odds are in our favor here considering only 8 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Plus, Kobe Bryant is 4-1 all-time in Game 7's. He'll be ready to go, and I expect his teammates will as well after he called them out following Thursday's loss. The Lakers should also get a lift on the defensive end from Metta World Peace, who has served his suspension.

The Lakers are 28-8 at home on the season and have won 31 of their last 37 at home versus Denver.

Historically speaking, LA's double-digit loss in Game 6 bodes well for us here for a number of reasons. First off, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, provided they are a good team (60-75% winning percentage) and matched up against a team with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 season.

Lastly, the Lakers are 21-8 ATS in their last 28 games when tied in a playoff series since 1996. They've won these games by an average of 6.9 points. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +6.5
All the pressure is on Boston to close out the series at home tonight. Otherwise it faces a tough Game 7 in Atlanta where the Hawks have won 2 of 3 in the series. The Hawks have the luxury of playing with nothing to lose. They're on the road and not expected to win. They can roll the dice and that makes them dangerous catching 6.5 big ones.

Boston could very well take care of business here, but doing so by 7 points or more isn't very likely. After all, the Hawks have either won or lost by 6 points or less in 7 of their last 9 and 14 of their last 19 versus the Celtics.

These two teams play a lot of close games, which is a big reason why the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

In addition, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points as I expect this one to go right down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -6
Back home off back-to-back losses in L.A. and needing a win to stay alive in the series, I expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion.

Memphis is 27-8 in home games this season, winning them by an average of 6.3 points. They won Game 2 at home by 7 and blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 so they are more than capable of covering this number.

There are a number of trends in our favor as well. Under coach Hollins, the Grizzlies are 53-34 ATS when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They are also 58-33 ATS under Hollins when out for revenge for a loss in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more.

Memphis is 17-6 ATS when it checks into a contest following loses in 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. It is also an impressive 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Recent history suggests this is the time to fade the Clippers as they are a poor 35-57 ATS in their last 92 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Memphis.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1
Back home, where they are 24-11 on the season, and extremely motivated following an embarrassing Game 4 loss, expect the Hawks to fend off elimination tonight.

The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Hawks are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Boston is also 18-34 ATS since the beginning of last season following a win by 10 points or more and 7-19 ATS during the same time frame after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Take the Hawks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8.5
The Jazz have been handed 3 consecutive double-digit defeats in this series but they won't go down without a fight tonight, not in front of the home fans.

We can't forget that the Jazz are an impressive 25-9 on their home floor this season. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 7 points or less in 11 of their last 14 at home in the series.

The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Motivated by Friday's 15-point loss, expect the Lakers to come storming back in Game 4.

The Lakers, who are 4-1 in their last 5 games versus the Nuggets, are showing a lot of value here considering they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.

LA doesn't want this series to go the distance. It will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of taking complete control of the series. We'll take the points as LA bounces back with a win.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bulls +1.5
Motivated by an embarrassing loss in Game 2, expect the Bulls to make a statement that they can win this series without Rose tonight.

Chicago doesn't take losses lightly. In fact, it is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss. It has won these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.3. The 81.3 points the Bulls have held their foes to in this spot tells us they have tightened the screws defensively in the rematch.

The Bulls are 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a loss, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Bulls.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +6
The Knicks may be without Amare Stoudemire tonight but they can't be counted out at home. New York went 9-4 in the 13 games Stoudemire missed down the stretch. The Knicks are actually a better defensive team without him on the floor.

The Knicks have lost each of the first two games of this series by double digits but are on an impressive 20-6 ATS run following consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. They have won by an average score of 98.1 to 95.0 in this situation.

New York's recent home court dominance also can't be ignored. Since Mike Woodson took over as interim coach on Mar. 14, the Knicks have gone 11-1 SU and ATS at home.

Miami has won all 5 meetings with the Knicks this season by at least 8 points. By installing Miami as less than an 8-point favorite, they are begging for the money to roll in on the Heat. They're looking for a big payday with a New York cover, but they won't have my money. We'll take the points as the Knicks take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Denver's 103-88 Game 1 loss places it in a strong historical situation tonight. Consider that plays on road teams - explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 103-58 ATS since 1996. This system is an awesome 73-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games, 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as an underdog, 28-10 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Lakers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Pacers -8.5
The Magic are not the same team without Dwight Howard. They took Game 1 but only managed 81 points. The Pacers have matchup advantages all over the court, especially inside, and I expect them to do a much better job of exploiting the mismatches in Game 2.

The Pacers only shot 34.5 percent from the field in Game 1, but don't expect them to shoot that poorly again versus an Orlando squad that has allowed its foes to shoot around 45 percent.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to 85 points or less, a good team (.600-.750 winning percentage ) playing a team with a winning record, are 39-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Lay the number with the Pacers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Memphis has the edge at home, where it is 26-7 with a 6.4-point average margin of victory. The Grizzlies were almost unbeatable at home in last year's playoffs, going 5-1 with those 5 wins coming by an average of 9.8 points.

The Grizzlies enter the playoffs having won 11 in a row at home with those wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. This run is significant because plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in April games, are 44-14 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have won by an average of 10.6.

The Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They aren't nearly as good on the road and lost their lone regular season meeting in Memphis by 9 points. Take the Grizzlies.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7.5
The defending NBA champs won't go down without a fight. The Thunder won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, but their wins only came by an average of 5.0 points. In other words, the Mavs are showing some nice value with this line.

In addition, the Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinal games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The road team is 24-8-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings between these teams and the underdog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Also, the Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 road meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Clippers +3.5
This is a game the Clippers must have. They can earn home-court in the first round of the playoffs with a win or a Memphis loss to Orlando Thursday. With Dwight Howard out, they know they can't count on the Magic to pull off that upset.

NY can still move up to the sixth seed if it wins its final two games and the Magic lose their last two, but I don't see Orlando losing at home to Charlotte tonight. The Knicks don't either. That's why they seriously have to think about losing this game. If I'm the Knicks, I want the Bulls in the first round, not the Heat. New York has played Chicago much tougher than Miami this season. With that said, I like the Clippers here even if the Knicks go after this game.

The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll take the Clippers and the points.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Jazz -4
Motivated by an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket, and further fueled by 7 consecutive losses to the Suns, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight.

Utah has been very strong at home all season with a 23-8 SU and 18-12-1 ATS record. It enters tonight's contest having won 4 straight and 13 of its last 16 at home with wins over the Lakers, Heat, Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavs during this stretch. In other words, Utah is fully capable of ending its skid against Phoenix in impressive fashion at home tonight.

The Jazz are a dominant 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The fact that Utah has been shooting the ball well from deep also bodes well for us.

The Jazz haven't been reliant on the 3-point shot this season, but they have made 26 of 53 3-point attempts during their current 3-game winning streak. It is significant that they made 50% of their attempts from long range last game because they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average score of 111.3 to 94.9.

Both teams have had 2 days to gear up for this one but the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Utah.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Having already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers can sit back and relax. The 76ers, meanwhile, should play with a greater sense of urgency as they try to avoid a potentially crucial matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday. With a win and a Milwaukee loss to New Jersey, Philly would clinch the final playoff spot in the East.

Indiana is receiving plenty of recognition for its play this month, which bodes well for us as the books know which team the public will be backing. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, which is significant because they are only 1-12 ATS this season following covers in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 96.4 to 92.2 in this situation.

The 76ers have either won or played Indiana to within 5 points in 4 of the last 6 meetings. I expect the 76ers to be the more desperate team. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5.5
Two-and-a-half games out of the 8th spot, the Bucks can't afford another loss. We'll get behind this desperate team catching points tonight.

The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 4 trips to Indiana with the lone loss in this stretch coming by a single point.

The Pacers have been playing well, but recent history tells us this is the time to fade them. After all, they are 0-12 ATS this season after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 95.3 to 90.1 in this situation. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -3
The Clippers have won 4 in a row and 12 of 14, have a pair of wins over the Thunder in their last 4 games, have won 2 of 3 versus Denver this season and they're getting 3 points? The books clearly want the money on the Clipps. We won't give in.

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 64-45 ATS under coach Karl in home games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Nugs have won by an average of 7.4 points in this situation.

The Clippers blew out OKC 92-77 in their last game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Expect this trend to continue. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 111-94 loss to Indiana last month, expect the 76ers to take care of business at home tonight.

This is Philly's last home game of the season, a game it desperately needs as it's fading fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The 76ers opened as a 3.5-point favorite at most books, which is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

It is also worth noting that Philly is 26-15 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Pacers have covered the spread in 3 straight but are only 8-21 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. They've lost by an average of 5.1 points in this spot.

Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll lay the points with the home team tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +8.5
Motivated by Saturday's loss to Boston and further fueled by losses to Miami in each of the season's first two meetings, including an embarrassing 30-point loss last month, expect the Nets to save face with a strong performance tonight.

Saturday we won with the T-Wolves as we expected them to treat their matchup with the Thunder like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The same strategy paid off Sunday as the Pistons left it all on the floor against the Bulls. We'll stick with this strategy here.

The Nets may not get up for another game this season, but they'll get up for this one. The Heat, meanwhile, will have a difficult time putting the Nets away by double digits after playing a game Sunday. The Heat are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

This is the biggest game remaining on New Jersey's schedule, and I expect them to go after it hard. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons +9.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 113-97 home loss to Milwaukee last game, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first 3 meetings with Chicago, expect the Pistons to show up in a big way here.

This is the biggest game remaining on Detroit's schedule, and similar to Minnesota (who got up for OKC Saturday) it will treat it like Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Friday's loss to Milwaukee is significant because the Pistons are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 104.6 to 99.2 in this situation. Also, the Pistons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +11
Motivated by 8 straight defeats and 11 consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Timberwolves to play some inspired basketball at home tonight.

An injury to Ricky Rubio derailed Minnesota's playoff hopes and now it is dealing with an injury to Kevin Love. Still, the T-Wolves have enough fire power with guys like Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jose Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph to cover this number. With the postseason out of the question, this game will be Minnesota's Super Bowl (so to speak).

The Thunder, meanwhile, will be much more concerned about their next opponent, the Clippers, who defeated them Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, OKC has won 11 straight in the series. However, only 1 of those wins has come by more than 11 points. In addition, Minnesota has either won or lost to the Sonics/Thunder by fewer than 11 points in 8 straight home meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bucks -4.5
The Bucks need a win tonight for any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a loss to Detroit in the most recent meeting, expect Milwaukee to take care of business here.

Right away I love the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a home defeat and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been favored by an average of 5.5 points and have won by an average of 7.2.

In addition, Milwaukee is 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Pistons recorded a 24-point win at Charlotte last night to conclude a 7-day road trip. This is significant because they are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs basically conceded defeat Monday against the Jazz with coach Pop thinking it was more important for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli to get rest. The trio was back in action last night but clearly didn't take the Bryant-less Lakers as seriously as they should have. Following that embarrassing loss, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong against a team they have owned this season.

The Spurs have clearly been motivated against the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They have won each of this season's three meetings by an average of 9.3 points, winning the lone home meeting by 13.

History is on our side here when you consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - a good offensive team (scoring 98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (scoring 92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less - are 40-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.3 points on average and have won by 11.6 on average. This system is 20-3 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Spurs are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.

The Grizzlies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Celtics following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost by 3 at home to the C's last month.

History tells us that Boston's offensive outburst last night sets it up for failure here as it is just 1-11 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It has only won these games by an average of 1.8 points.

It's also worth noting that the C's are 11-25 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It's losing by an average of 0.4 points in these games.

The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Hawks have won 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series, and I like their chances of winning another against Boston tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers -5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 7-point loss to New Jersey in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good team outscoring its opponents by 3 points per game or more, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more - are 62-31 ATS since 1996. Team fitting into this system, which is 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons and 16-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3.

Philly has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those losses have come to Miami, Orlando and Boston. Consider that it is 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, defeating these foes by an average of 11.9 points. It is also 13-4 ATS versus poor teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by 3 points per game or more this season. It has defeated these foes by an average of 12.9 points.

The 76ers are 18-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Nets. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 14.2 points.

The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -4
The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 9 games with wins over the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. Keep in mind that these 3 keys wins came by 6, 6 and 15 points respectively. Also, keep in mind that these 3 wins came on the road.

At home, where the Grizzlies are 19-7 on the season, I expect them to continue their strong play against the Clippers.

The Clippers have won the season's first 2 meetings, but both of those came in LA. Rest assured, things will go much differently tonight. The Grizzlies are 51-31 ATS in their last 82 games when playing with double revenge. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Celtics +2
This is a major letdown spot for Indiana, which is playing its second game in as many nights following a big win over the Thunder. This is a major bounce back spot for Boston, however, following back-to-back losses and getting called out by coach Doc Rivers following Thursday's loss to Chicago.

"I had to use two timeouts ... to remind us that we are actually having an NBA game tonight," Rivers said. "I thought this was the worst loss for us this year the way we approached the game."

I fully expect this veteran squad to respond.

The fact Boston has had a day to gear up is huge considering it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Also, Indiana is 0-9 ATS this season after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It is losing by an average score of 95.8 to 89.1 in this situation.

Boston will have fresher legs and it will be the hungrier side tonight. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +7.5
Fueled by 3 consecutive defeats and a 2-point home loss to Detroit on Mar. 26, expect the Wizards to give the Pistons a game tonight.

Washington blew a 13-point lead in the Mar. 26 meeting and was defeated on a Rodney Stuckey 20-foot jumper with 0.2 seconds remaining. That can't be sitting well with the Wizards, who won 98-77 in Detroit in the season's first meeting. In fact, Washington has either won or lost by fewer than tonight's posted spread in 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Washington's defense hasn't been very good in its last 2 games, but recent history says it will do something about that tonight. The Wiz are 13-3 ATS after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are only losing these games by an average of 0.1 points.

It is also important to note that the Pistons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by defeats in each of the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana, expect the Wizards to give the Pacers all they want and more here.

Indiana just played last night and used a lot of energy while mounting a late comeback. Riding high from than win, and with OKC on deck, I expect a bit of a letdown from the Pacers.

The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing without a day of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Wizards, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

It is also worth noting that the home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors +7.5
Hungry to end a 5-game skid and to avoid being swept by Memphis, expect the Warriors to play some inspired ball tonight.

Off last night's upset win over the West-best Thunder, and with games against defending champion Dallas and reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami up next, I'm expecting a letdown from the Grizzlies here.

The losses have started to pile up for the Warriors, but only one defeat during their current losing streak has come by more than 8 points. It is also worth noting that Golden State is 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Jackson in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Warriors have actually won by an average score of 102.3 to 100.6 in this situation.

In addition, the Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Golden State.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8
This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Chicago and have a big game in Miami up next. Meanwhile, this is a highly motivated spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost each of the season's first three meetings with OKC.

Memphis is a phenomenal 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis has only lost by an average of 1.1 points in this situation.

The Grizzlies are also on a 52-34 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have won by an average score of 98.6 to 95.6 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites in the second game of a back-to-back in April are 165-105 (61.1%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.7. This system is 21-10 (67.7% the last 3 seasons.

The Thunder are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Magic -5.5
Checking in off back-to-back defeats, the Magic will be hungry to run up the score on the Nuggets this evening.

The Magic are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Prior to Friday's home loss to Dallas, Orlando had won 6 of its last 7 at home with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. Its home dominance of Denver also can't be ignored.

The Magic have won 13 of their last 14 at home in the series with those 13 wins coming by an average of 11.2 points.

It also doesn't bode well for Denver that it checks in off a SU win and cover. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 10.0 points.

We'll lay the points with the Magic as all signs point to a double-digit win.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 2-point loss to the Clippers last month, expect the Jazz to give L.A. all it wants and more tonight.

Both of these teams played last night and recent history favors the Jazz in this back-to-back spot. In fact, they Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest.

The Clippers have not proven they can be trusted laying points. They are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Clippers are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win while the Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.

Utah has played better ball than the Clippers this month and shouldn't be catching this many points. Take the Jazz.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Hawks -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening.

The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points.

The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points.

The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals.

Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here.

Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points.

It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games.

With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight.

Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road.

Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight.

Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home.

This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night.

The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1.

The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1.

The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +7
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight.

The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston.

Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Raptors +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight.

Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot.

The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a 13-point loss in the season's first meeting, expect the Raptors to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight.

Revenge has been a great angle to play with the Raptors, who are 13-4 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors have actually won by an average score of 101.3 to 95.6 in this situation.

The Raptors have been extremely undervalued against winning teams and Chicago couldn't be more overvalued here following an 85-59 win over Orlando without Derrick Rose on the floor. The Raptors are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had 2 days to prepare, expect the Pacers to take care of business tonight at home, where they are 13-6.

The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past 4 meetings by an average of 15.8 points. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers have won 2 straight and 11 of their last 14 at home in this series.

In addition, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Central division opponents and 0-7 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +1.5
Motivated by back-to-back poor performance against Sacramento and Denver, expect Boston to take care of business tonight.

Boston has played a lot of games in not a lot of days but should benefit from having Sunday off while the Hawks were in action. Besides, road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hawks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Also, they are just 13-27 ATS all-time under coach Drew following 2 or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 96.2 to 92.9 in this situation.

The Hawks are very banged up. They were to get past Washington and Cleveland without being at full strength, but I don't think they'll be able to get past the Celtics. Bet Boston.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by an embarrassing 121-94 loss at Atlanta in the season's first meeting, expect the Cavs to take care of business this afternoon.

Cleveland has had 3 full days to rest up and prepare for this game. Atlanta has only had one and will likely already be looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Boston.

Cleveland has been a phenomenal small dog at 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Timberwolves +8.5
This is a game the Timberwolves want badly after dropping the season's first 3 meetings with the Lakers. Motivated by those losses and a 6-point setback in Utah last night, expect the Wolves to give the Lakers a game.

Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as an underdog this season, 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings road meetings in this series.

The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in Friday night home games the last 3 seasons. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the T-Wolves in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +4.5
This isn't a good spot for the Lakers. First of all, they are just 6-15-1 ATS in road games this season, losing these games by an average score of 97.1 to 92.6. Secondly, the Lakers just played a double-OT game in Memphis last night. They will be fatigued and typically struggle when that is the case. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Bobcats are coming off a loss to the NBA's worst team (Charlotte) so you can expect them to be very motivated this evening. The Hornets have home wins over Boston, Orlando and Dallas and have played San Antonio to a 2-point game at home. In other words, beating the Lakers outright is certainly in the cards.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and the underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -5
Motivated by a home loss to Memphis Sunday, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong against a team they have defeated 3 consecutive times by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets have won 4 in a row at home against the Hawks with those wins coming by an average of 9.5 points.

The Nuggets have dominated teams from the East, going 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games against them. They have especially dominated the Southeast division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets haven't just won these games, they have won them by an average of 18.7 points. Bet Denver.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +4
The Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games, Ricky Rubio for the season and they lost in Phoenix by 9 points earlier this month. The Suns have been playing well, winning 4 of 5 since these two last met, and yet they are laying less points than they did the last time these two faced off. I smell a trap.

The books obviously like Minnesota's chances tonight, and I have to agree. Rubio plays with flare at times and makes spectacular plays on occasion, but veteran Luke Ridnour is a better shooter and plays with intelligence. I don't see much of a drop off, if any.

The T-wolves shot 1 of 13 from 3-point range in the previous meeting, and I don't see that happening again. We're talking about a team that averages 7 3-point makes per game.

Minnesota is 19-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Also, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Chicago and Atlanta, and further fueled by a pair of lopsided losses in the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Pacers to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Indiana believes it can play with anyone in the NBA this season, and it will be out to solidify that belief this evening.

As far as rest goes, the advantage lies with Indy. It has had 3 full days to rest and prepare while Miami has only had 2. The Heat are 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Clippers +5
Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more.

The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +3.5
This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off.

Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans.

The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games.

The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night.

The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6
There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +9.5
Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening.

Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +4
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot.

The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January.

Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +8.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance.

Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia.

The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight.

The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening.

The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight.

The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points.

It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavaliers +10.5
Motivated by losing the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Cavs to give the Heat a game tonight.

Cleveland has been no pushover this season. It played the Heat to a 7-point game on Jan. 24 and has wins over the Celtics, Mavericks and Clippers. The last time Miami visited, it was handed a 12-point defeat despite 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds from LeBron James.

The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets +4
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by losses to Oklahoma City in the season's first 2 meetings, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home, where they are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS).

The Rockets only lost by 3 points at home to the Thunder on Jan. 7. In fact, they have either won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 13 of the last 14 at home in this series. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

In addition, plays against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 3.7 points but have lost by an average of 1.2. Take Houston as it has an excellent chance to win this one outright.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavs -2
The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening.

This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation.

The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -3.5
Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor.

The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night.

The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points.

In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -7
The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight.

Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Raptors -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight.

The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points.

The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1.

In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +9.5
Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening.

The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

We'll take Toronto and the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +9.5
The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight.

Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again.

New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight.

The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7.5
Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned.

The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia.

In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -1.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight.

Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points.

The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two.

The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on 76ers -5.5
Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand.

The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +12.5
Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight.

Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers.

The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points.

History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight.

This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road.

The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8
Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers.

Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight.

Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +7
Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night.

The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game.

The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight.

5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Suns +2.5
This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers.

The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix.

There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 6, ABC) on Heat -4.5
I can't see Dallas winning three in a row in this series. The Heat are just too good. Plus, they'll have the home crowd behind them and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation in this do-or-die Game 6. Teams tend to play their best when desperate.

Miami played well enough to win Game 5 and led by 4 in the fourth down the stretch. The Heat likely would have held on to win that game had Dallas not continued its flukish 3-point shooting performance. The Mavs average 8 3-point makes on 37% shooting for the season but shot a ridiculous 13 of 19 (68.4%) from deep in Game 5. With Miami stepping up the defensive intensity and with a change of venue for Dallas, I can't see the three balls falling the same way here. That gives Miami the edge.

The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Expect Miami to take care of business tonight to extend the series. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 5, ABC) on Heat +1.5
Despite outplaying Dallas for the majority of each game, the series is tied 2-2. After feeling like they gave away Game 4, you can bet Miami will show up tonight.

Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all seven of their most recent losses by an average of 9.7 points. Miami has been exceptional in bounce back spots and I have no doubts we will see a much better performance from LeBron James tonight.

James scored only eight points on 11 shots in Game 4. It was the first time in 90 career playoff games that he failed to reach double-digits in points. Despite scoring nearly 19 points below his average, the Heat were right in the game until the end. That shows you how good this team really is. The two-time MVP will bounce back tonight and I expect him to be the difference.

The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Heat are also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games in Dallas. Take Miami.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 3, ABC) on Heat +2.5
Completely disgusted by the way they collapsed down the stretch in Game 2, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight.

Consider that Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. In other words, this is a team that responds.

The Heat have been very good on the road down the stretch, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games as a result. It is also worth noting that the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this matchup and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.

With the exception of the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has stifled the Mavs. Expect the Heat to really bring the "D" tonight as they take Game 3 outright.