Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | 27-11 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Browns -1
Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has won 2 in a row, but both were at home. I expect a different story as it ventures out on the road where it is just 4-13 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 3.6 points on average. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland. They fell 20-14 in their most recent trip to Cleveland, and I expect them to go down again as the offense struggles against the Browns' stingy 5th-ranked stop unit. |
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Chargers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Chiefs are 9-1 but can't be trusted laying this many points against the Chargers. San Diego is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points. Additionally, KC is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. |
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11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 6 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre Game of the Month on Dolphins +4.5
Bottom Line: Carolina is riding a 6-game SU and ATS streak with big wins over San Francisco and New England in its last 2. And, it is up against a team that is dealing with off-the-field issues. Naturally, the money is rolling in on the Panthers (85% of the money at the time of this report), and I expect it to continue to come in on them as TV analysts hype Carolina as a Super Bowl contender. Cam Newton and company are hearing about how great they are, which makes it difficult to maintain a chip. Miami is the team with more to prove right now as it has an opportunity to persevere in the face of controversy. The Dolphins did just that last week with a win over San Diego, and they'll be lacking no motivation here as they are tied with the New York Jets for the AFC's second wild-card spot. I like Miami in this spot regardless, but it bolsters its chances of an outright win with Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson expected to miss the game. He is tied for ninth in the league with 8 1/2 sacks. No team has won by more than a field goal in Miami in their last 7 tries. Plus, the Phins are 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 13.2 points in this spot. Pound Miami. |
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year on Falcons +10
Bottom Line: The Falcons are 11-3 ATS following a double-digit loss under coach Mike Smith, winning by an average of 6.8 points in this spot. Additionally, home dogs or pickems that are 1-5 or 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games are 70-38 ATS the last 30 years if they have won 25% of their games or fewer and are playing a winning team in the second half of the schedule. Atlanta may pack it in after this game, but it will not roll over at home against its biggest rival. 9 of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and I expect another close game tonight. Take the points. |
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots +3
Bottom Line: It's hard not to like the Patriots catching points. They are 40-19 ATS as an underdog under Belichick, including 31-16 ATS as a road dog. The Carolina defense has been stout, but the advantage goes to Tom Brady and the New England offense tonight as it should benefit from having had an extra week to scheme. The Pats have quietly scored 27 or more in four straight games and busted out for 55 against the Steelers last time out so they are starting to click. New England is 26-11 ATS under Belichick versus good defensive teams that allow an average of 285 yards or less per game. This trend tightens up to 16-4 ATS if the game takes place in the second half of the season. Brady is 13-4 on Monday Night Football, and the Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday nighters. Pound the Pats. |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Broncos -7.5
Bottom Line: While a bye week gave KC a chance to get healthier and prepare, it also killed its momentum. The last thing you want when you're rolling is a change in routine. Kansas City's defense has carried it to this point but it has done so against a soft schedule and now it goes up against the No. 1 offensive team in the league. Denver has been a reliable favorite in this range as it is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 13.6 points on average. The Broncos are on a 14-4 ATS run versus very good defensive teams that give up 14 or less points per game. KC is on a 3-14 ATS skid in road games versus excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt. It has lost to these teams by 17.5 points on average. |
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +3.5
Bottom Line: Look for the 49ers to bounce-back strong after blowing a 9-0 lead in last week's loss to the Panthers. Time and time again SF has been up to the challenge against elite competition since Harbaugh took over. Consider that the Niners are 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. above 75%) under Harbaugh. They haven't just defeated these teams, they've whipped them by an average of 14.3 points. Harbaugh is 2-0 against the Saints the last 2 seasons, and I believe he has their number again. |
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills +1.5 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 44 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Bills +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road squads with a winning record has produced a 102-53 ATS record since 1983 if they are coming off an upset victory at home. Keep in mind this system has produced a 5-1 ATS result this season. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and will continue their solid play at home here. |
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11-17-13 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 44 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset win at home has resulted in a 67-33 ATS record since 1983 if they are going against a team that is off a road loss. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.4 point on average and have lost by 10.7 points on average. This system is 18-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Bengals are on a 5-0 ATS run at home, winning these by an average of 13.4 pts. |
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts -1 v. Tennessee Titans | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Colts -1
Bottom Line: Since Andrew Luck took over as starter, the Colts haven't lost consecutive games. They are 7-0 SU and ATS following a loss with Luck under center, winning these games by 7.1 points on average. |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucs +3
Bottom Line: Miami came up with a big upset win over the Bengals in its last game, but it is on a 20-37 ATS slide following an upset win. The Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night Football games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bucs. Playing on underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight games or more has resulted in a 108-63 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a winning percentage of 25% or lower on the season. The Bucs have taken two of the best teams in the NFL (Saints and Seahawks) right down to the wire and have played two other winning teams (Jets and Cardinals) to within 3 points or less so they will be full of confidence when they take the field tonight. Look for Tampa Bay to notch its first win of the season. |
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans Saints | 17-49 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-4 SU (7-2 ATS) on the season, and the extremely talented Cowboys could easily be 8-1 SU. Dallas has found ways to lose 3 games by 3 points or fewer (2 of those came by 1 point), but those losses came to the Chiefs, Broncos and Lions - teams that are 21-4 on the season. Dallas has lost its last two versus the Saints by 3 points so it will be out for some revenge here. It spoiled the Saints' undefeated season the last time it visited the Superdome so it will be lacking no confidence. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that were held to 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games has resulted in a 48-20 ATS record since 1983 if they're matched up against an opponent that was outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This system has gone 6-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers -5.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on 49ers -5.5
Bottom Line: The Panthers have rattled off 4 consecutive wins both SU and ATS, but those came against teams that are 7-27 combined on the season. I'm confident they meet their match this week on the road against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who have had an extra week to prepare. The 49ers are 16-6 ATS in home games under Harbaugh, winning these by 11.5 points on average. They are 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Harbaugh, winning these by an average of 10.9 points. Lastly, the Niners are 9-2 ATS under their current coach as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning these contests by 13.0 points on average. |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -115 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Vegas Line Mistake Game of the Year on Packers -115
Bottom Line: I feel getting the Packers at home at this price to win SU is an absolute gift. I know Rodgers is out, but Green Bay just doesn't lose at home, and it especially doesn't lose consecutive games at Lambeau. The Packers are 29-3 in their last 31 regular-season home games. They are also a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 regular-season home games following a home loss, winning these by 13.3 points on average. Seneca Wallace will be much better after 5 days' worth of practice snaps. I'm confident he'll have a big game against an awful Philadelphia defense that ranks last in the league with 419.3 yards allowed per game. The Packers have a running game to take the pressure off Wallace and to keep the Eagles honest. If the Eagles want Wallace to beat them through the air, he will. They aren't good enough in the back. Pound the Packers. |
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Vikings +3
Bottom Line: I don't see a Washington defense that ranks 22nd against the run having answer for Adrian Peterson, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Coach Shanahan's squads are just 10-23 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule since 1992 versus good running teams that average 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have lost by an average of 5.7 points in this spot. Pound Minnesota. |
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears +11 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chicago Bears +11
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points has resulted in a 63-30 ATS record the last 30 years, provided they are off 2 of more consecutive wins and have won 60%-75% of their games on the season. Additionally, playing on road dogs of pickems in Weeks 9 or later after a road game when both it and its opponent scored 24 or more points has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Bears don't have Cutler, but veteran backup McCown looked good against Washington and has had a bye week to get all the practice snaps. He has running back Matt Forte, receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and tight end Martellus Bennett to lean on. That's a better cast of playmakers than what Rogers has healthy right now. This is a huge game for the Bears as a win pulls them into a 3-way tie for first in the division. With that as a motivator, look for Chicago to keep this one close. |
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11-03-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +2.5
Bottom Line: I really like Houston's chances of picking up the "W" at home behind its top-ranked stop unit. Home field has meant everything in this matchup of late. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings, and each of Houston's 3 wins during this stretch came by double digits. Additionally, Houston is on an 11-3 ATS run at home versus AFC foes and a 10-2 ATS run at home following a loss by 3 or less points. |
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11-03-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots | 31-55 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon Marquee Matchup on Steelers +7
Bottom Line: The Steelers fit neatly into a system that has been extremely lucrative - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game are 28-8 ATS the last 30 years when they're facing a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 consecutive contests. The Steelers have a history of coming up big in big games. They are 36-15 ATS teams with a winning percentage greater than 75% since 1992. Additionally, the underdog have covered 9 out of the last 11 times these franchises have faced off. |
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11-03-13 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Oakland Raiders | 49-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *POWER PLAY* on Eagles +3
Bottom Line: There's plenty of reasons to fade the Raiders following last week's upset win over Pittsburgh. The Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Oakland is 3-14 ATS off an upset win at home since 1992 and 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less during the same time frame. |
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major Early Marquee Matchup on Jets +6.5
Bottom Line: You can count how many times the Saints have won by more than 6 points on the road in their last 18 opportunities on 1 hand - 4 times. Looking back further, they have won by more than 6 points on the road just 9 times in their last 35 tries. It's unmistakable that New Orleans is being overvalued here. Playing on home underdogs or pickems that trailed in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half has resulted in a 33-11 ATS record if they are up against a foe that scored 30 points or more last game. Teams fitting this scenario are 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. |
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 43 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Year on Titans -3
Bottom Line: I love the Titans in this spot. They will be very motivated as they have seen their 3-1 start evaporate due to a brutal stretch where they played the Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers. They have had an extra week to focus solely on the Rams and to get healthy. Starting QB Jake Locker, who missed the Kansas City and Seattle games, is near 100.0 percent again. He's having a good season, completing a career-high 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,047 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He should find success against a St. Louis defense that is allowing 24.8 points and 343.6 yards per game. This is a terrible spot for the Rams, who poured their hearts into Monday night's game against Seattle only to have them ripped out when Kellen Clemens overthrew his intended target on the final play. That's the kind of loss that's hard to recover from, especially in 5 short days. Playing on road faves that have lost at least 2 straight games if they are a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team has resulted in a 9-0 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Tennessee Titans are also 3-0-1 ATS all-time against the St. Louis Rams. Pound Tennessee! |
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Dolphins +3
Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that have covered in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, provided they are a team with a win rate of 60%-75% and are taking on a losing team, has resulted in a 59-28 ATS record the last 30 years. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Miami. This includes a 17-13 home loss last season. Pound the Fish. |
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +13.5 | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +13.5
Bottom Line: Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that outrush opponents by 40.0 yards or more per game and are up against an opponent that gets outrushed by 40.0 yards or more per game has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 13.5 points on average but have won by just 10.6 points on average. This system is 9-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that outgain their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games, has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record the last 30 years. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 7.1 points on average. This system is 14-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 3-1 on the road, but none of these wins have come by more than 12 points. Bet the Rams. |
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Vikings +10
Bottom Line: Minnesota is not as bad as it has looked the past 2 weeks, and it will have no problem getting up for Green Bay. The Vikings have won or lost by less than 10 points in 20 of their last 24 meetings with Green Bay. There is plenty of additional information supporting this play on the Vikings as well. Playing against teams that are off a win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 32-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they're up against an opponent that is off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points. Playing against road favorites that gave up 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games has resulted in a 97-56 ATS record the last 30 years in they're up against a team that lost by 14 points or more last game. Playing on home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record, has resulted in a 115-59 ATS record the last 30 years. |
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10-27-13 | NY Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 9-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Double Digit Blood Bath on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: The Jets have failed to win consecutive games, and I believe they'll come out flat following their biggest win of the season. Following their last 2 victories, they've been absolutely pounded. They lost 38-13 at Tennessee after beating Buffalo, and they lost 19-6 to Pittsburgh following a victory over Atlanta. Playing against teams that are coming off an upset win over a division rival at home, provided the "play against" team has a winning record and is taking on a winning team, has resulted in a 39-13 ATS record the last 30 years. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 10.0 points on average. This system is an unbeaten 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons, and that does not bode well for the Jets. The Bengals are back home, where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, after back-to-back weeks on the road, and they'll be ready to roll the inconsistent Jets. |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC Game of the Year on Lions -3
Bottom Line: Dallas' 17-3 upset win at Philadelphia plays right into our hands as plays against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win by 10 points has produced a 48-20 ATS record the last 30 years. Additionally, playing against all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that allowed only 6 points last game and are facing a foe that lost by 3 or fewer points last game has produced a 28-6 ATS record the last 30 years. Dallas is an NFL-best 6-1 ATS this season, which is a surprise considering the Cowboys are a public team. Dallas' fast start against the number assures the books that Cowboy backers will be ready to ride their team. This tells me it's time to go the other way. Dallas is only 5-21 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of its last 4 games the last 21 years. This a tough spot for Dallas playing back-to-back road games following a big division win. The Lions will be mighty hungry following a close loss last week, and I expect them to level Dallas in this spot. Pound Detroit. |
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10-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Total of the Month on Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all NFL teams in Thursday games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points has resulted in a 24-8 record the last 5 seasons. We have seen just 33.2 total points scored in this spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 7-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. We have seen just 36.9 total points on average in this spot. Pound the UNDER. |
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10-21-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 104 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on NY Giants -3.5
Bottom Line: The Giants have essentially had a bye week to prepare for this contest as they haven't played since Thursday Oct. 10. Having extra time to prepare for an opponent has bred good results as teams coming off Thursday games are 8-3 ATS this season. Eli Manning has struggled to this point, but I trust the two-time champ a lot more here than I do Josh Freeman, who has been with the Vikings less than 2 weeks. I expect the Giants to stack the box on Adrian Peterson, making Freeman beat them through the air, and that's something I don't think he'll be able to do in his first start with a new team. It takes time to build chemistry and get in sync with the receivers. I just don't think the timing will be there tonight. Pound New York. |
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10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 80 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBC) on Colts +7
Bottom Line: The Colts are 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons. They are 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis. |
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10-20-13 | Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Texans +7
Bottom Line: The Texans are a much better team than they have shown, and I'm not completely sold on the Chiefs. Three of Houston's losses have come to the defending Super Bowl champs (Baltimore) and Super Bowl contenders San Francisco and Seattle while the Chiefs have benefited from a soft schedule. Houston has been hurt by turnovers, but it can win this game if it limits its giveaways Sunday. That's because the Texans, who rank No. 1 in total defense, should be able to slow down a Kansas City offense that ranks 25th in the league. Playing against favorites after a win by 14 or more points that are going against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has produced a 25-7 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Houston. |
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10-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Tennessee Titans +4.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *POWER PLAY* on Titans +4.5
Bottom Line: The Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after being held to 250 yards or less in their previous game. |
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10-20-13 | Chicago Bears v. Washington Redskins +1 | 41-45 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Early *POWER PLAY* on Redskins +1
Bottom Line: The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus NFC foes. They are also 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350.0 yards or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these six by an average of 6.7 points. |
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10-20-13 | St Louis Rams v. Carolina Panthers -6 | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Panthers -6
Bottom Line: St. Louis has turned in its two best performances of the season on the ground the last two weeks and has come away with victories as a result. Unfortunately, I don't see St. Louis doing much of anything on the ground against a Carolina defense that ranks 4th in the NFL against the run. The Panthers have held their last two opponents to 90 rushing yards or less, and they are 6-0 ATS lifetime under Rivera after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. They have won by 10.6 points on average in this spot. St. Louis is 8-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992, losing by an average of 14.6 in this spot. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Carolina. 3 of these losses came by 13 points or more. |
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10-17-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC West Game of the Month on Cardinals +7
Bottom Line: The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with 3 of those being decided by 4 points or less so Arizona is definitely showing value as a home dog of more than 4 points. Additionally, Arizona is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Seahawks. The Cardinals are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat. Pound Arizona. |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +2
Bottom Line: This is a tough situation for the Colts as it is both a letdown and look ahead spot coming off last week's huge victory over the Seahawks and with a huge game against Peyton Manning and company up next. However, this is a highly motivated spot for San Diego, which is coming off its worst performance of the season. Playing against favorites that have a winning record on the season and are coming off an upset win at home has produced a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season and a 10-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. When the line is +3 to -3, playing on teams like San Diego that gained 400 yards or more last game and average 5.8 yards or more per play has produced a 17-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons when they're up against a team like Indy that gives up 5.4-5.8 yards per play. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 6 against the Colts, including the last 2. Pound the Chargers as I love them to win this one outright. |
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10-13-13 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Dallas Cowboys | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +6
Bottom Line: Teams headed up by Shanahan are 12-3 ATS all-time when playing on 2 weeks of rest or more. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS under Shanahan in road games versus teams with a 25% to 40% win rate. Washington is 7-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus teams that give up 235.0 passing yards or more per game. The Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 23-7 ATS in the last 30 meetings. |
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -2.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Patriots -2.5
Bottom Line: The Patriots are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a loss. Additionally, they are 8-1 ATS under coach Belichick after scoring 9 points or less in their last game. They have won by an average of 14.7 points in this situation. |
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10-13-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 | 31-20 | Loss | -100 | 69 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Underdog Shocker on Buccaneers +2
Bottom Line: The Eagles, which haven't won consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2 last season, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye. |
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10-13-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Houston Texans -7 | 38-13 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL Early Blowout on Texans -7
Bottom Line: St. Louis is 1-12 ATS on the road versus teams averaging 375 yards or more per game since 1992. It has lost by an average of 21.0 points in this situation. |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Lions -2.5 v. Cleveland Browns | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL Super System Smoker on Lions -2.5
Bottom Line: Favorites that allow 6.0 yards per play or more and have given up 375 yards or more in 3 consecutive games are 32-9 ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by 13.6 points on average in this situation. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. |
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. NY Jets | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: Teams coming off a bye that are 0-4 or worse are on a 21-4 ATS run. The bye couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh. It will be refreshed, fully prepared and ready to break into the win column. Additionally, this is a hangover spot for the Jets, playing on a short week following a big upset win on the road. The Steelers are 7-3 in their last 10 versus the Jets, including 2-0 in their last two. Pound Pittsburgh. |
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10-10-13 | NY Giants +9 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month on Giants +9
Bottom Line: Road teams that have been beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 31-8 ATS the last 10 seasons if they have won 25% or less of their games on the season. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs by 9.7 points on average but have lost by only 5.7 points on average. This system illustrates how much the books overvalue teams facing weak opponents that have been losing big ATS. The value clearly lies with the Giants. Pound New York. |
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10-07-13 | NY Jets v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Total of the Month on Jets/Falcons UNDER 44.5
Bottom Line: Plays UNDER on home teams with a total of 42.5-49 are 46-19 since 1983 if they are coming off 1 or more consecutive overs and have a +/- 3 ppg differential and are matched up against an opponent with a -3 to -7 ppg differential. This system tightens up to a perfect 8-0 the last 3 seasons. The Jets have gone over the number in each of their last 2 games while combining with their opponent to score 47 and 51 points, respectively. The Falcons have gone over the last three games while combining for 55, 50 and 53 points. Despite these results, we see a number of only 44.5. The books are clearly looking to trap the public here. Pound the UNDER. |
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10-06-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Raiders +4.5
Bottom Line: The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC foes, and underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. |
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10-06-13 | Denver Broncos v. Dallas Cowboys +9 | 51-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cowboys +9
Bottom Line: The Broncos are 3-12 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. They have won these contests on average but only by 5.2 points. This trend shows the way books tend to overvalue high-scoring teams. Dallas hasn't lost by more than 7 points in any of its last 8 home games. |
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10-06-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Tennessee Titans +3 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC *SUREFIRE* on Titans +3
Bottom Line: The Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Underdogs or pickems with a turnover margin of +1/game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers, are 26-6 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +1 | 26-18 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major NFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bears +1
Bottom Line: Playing on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that average 27 ppg or more and are coming off 3 or more consecutive overs has produced a 29-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Also, the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. |
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10-06-13 | New England Patriots v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals pk
Bottom Line: Currently, nearly 90.0 percent of the ATS bets have come in on the Patriots yet the line has moved the other way. Oddsmakers clearly aren't sold on New England in this spot and sharps absolutely love the Bengals here. I couldn't agree more with the sharps. The Patriots are 4-0, but they are not the better team, especially on the road without Vince Wilfork. The Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 at home, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3. Also, plays against road teams that put up 30 or more points last game are 82-42 ATS the last 10 seasons if they're up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Pound the Bengals. |
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10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -3.5 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Browns -3.5
Bottom Line: Expect the banged-up Bills to come up short on the road tonight. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games following a home game over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by 17.2 points on average in this situation. Pound the Browns. |
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -7 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 103 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Saints -7
Bottom Line: New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or fewer during this span. The Saints have completely picked apart soft passing defenses under coach Payton. They are 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams that give up 235 or more passing yards/game under Payton and have won these contests by 22.2 points on average. Pound New Orleans. |