6* Celtics/Heat Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics are in must-win mode here in Game 3.  They did themselves no favors in Game 2 by turning the ball over 20 times and lost 101-106 after blowing a big lead.  They also lost in overtime in Game 1, so this is a really close series.  I think the intensity level the Celtics play with compared to the Heat will be massive in this game.  Look for the Heat to relax just enough to allow the Celtics to win and cover this game.  Boston is 19-6 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days this year.  The Celtics are 46-25 ATS in their last 71 games off 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.  Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 playoff games as favorites.  Take Boston.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Heat/Celtics Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Miami +2.5

The Key: The Miami Heat show no mercy.  They are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this year.  They took the Bucks out in 5 games and really outplayed them even before Giannis got hurt, which is saying something because the Bucks were arguably the best team in the NBA.  And they came up clutch in Game 1 and won in OT.  It’s a Heat team playing with so much confidence right now that it’s just tough to bet against them.  And here they are again getting no respect from oddsmakers as 2.5-point dogs in Game 2.  They play great defense and have 3-point shooters everywhere, plus the best closer in Jimmy Butler.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Clippers/Nuggets Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The Clippers and Nuggets combined for 181 points in Game 4 and 216 points in Game 5.  I expect this total to fall somewhere in the middle close to 200 combined points.  The Nuggets scored 38 points in the 4th quarter of their Game 5 comeback win that pushed that up to 216.  They just went off from the 3-point line.  That’s unlikely to happen again, and this will be a half court game.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Houston +6.5

The Key: We’re getting he best price we’ve gotten on Houston all series in Game 5 tonight as 6.5-point dogs.  That’s because they have failed to cover in each of their last 3 games against the Lakers, but it’s not like any of them were blowouts.  They lost all 3 by 10 points or fewer.  With their season on the line, expect a big performance from the Rockets in desperation mode in Game 5.  Houston is 15-5 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 years.  Take Houston.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 219.5

The Key: We’ve seen all these playoff series get lower and lower scoring as they progress.  And this Lakers/Rockets series should be no different.  After combining for 226 points in Game 2, the Lakers and Rockets only combined for 214 points in Game 3.  And I see more of the same here in Game 4.  Houston is 21-11 UNDER off a loss this season.  Houston is 17-4 UNDER revenging a home loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Denver Nuggets +8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets won Game 2 outright as 8.5-point dogs and covered in Game 3 in a 6-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers just aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here on a neutral court as 8-point dogs again for Game 4.  This is a big game for the Nuggets to try and get back into this series and square it up at 2-2.  They will be the hungrier team and will be playing like it.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinals games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks went from being basically 5-point favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now underdogs.  They were 2.5-point dogs in Game 4 with the uncertainty surrounding Giannis.  He played and got off to a quick start before injuring his ankle again.  He didn’t play the entire 2nd half and the Bucks still won 118-115 (OT).  Now the Bucks are 4-point dogs in Game 5, basically a 9-point adjustment for likely being without Giannis, and I don’t agree with it.  The Bucks aren’t 9 points worse without him.  They actually can space the floor better because the Heat can’t sink in on Giannis like they have been doing.  Now the Heat have to play the Bucks more straight up because of all the great shooters on their team.  And the Heat have some injuries of their own that are flying under the radar as Herro, Crowder and Olynyk are all questionable to play tonight.  Giannis is also technically questionable and not officially out yet.  The Bucks will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight after pulling out Game 4 in OT and staying alive.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -1.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics had a terrible shooting night in Game 4 and lost 93-100.  They made just 7 3-pointers compared to 17 for the Raptors.  Just shoot the ball a little better and they would have won that game.  That’s what I’m expecting to happen for them here in Game 5 as they grab back control of this series.  The Celtics are 27-12 ATS against teams with winning records this season and I trust head coach Brad Stevens to get them to respond today.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Lakers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: Rust has played a factor in the Lakers losing both Game 1’s in these playoffs.  They didn’t all play together in the bubble and it hurt them in their upset loss to the Blazers in Game 1 last round.  And having 6 days off prior to this series with Houston hurt them in Game 1.  The Lakers will be much sharper in Game 2 tonight and their massive advantages in this series will show through.  They actually got out rebounded by the Rockets in Game 1, which should never happen with their size.  They won’t let it happen again, and they can’t shoot it much worse than they did in Game 1.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors went from being favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now 2-point dogs in Game 4.  I like this price we are getting on the Raptors who have to be feeling very confident after beating the Celtics at the buzzer in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 hole.  The Raptors just need to shoot it better and they’ll get right back in this series, which seems like an easy fix.  Toronto is shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range in this series compared to 38.7% for Boston.  The Raptors are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 ATS.  The Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Take Toronto.

7* Bucks/Heat Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Miami Heat should not be getting this much respect from the books.  They were 5-point dogs in Game 1 and 5.5-point dogs in Game 2 and won both outright to improve to 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  But now they are back down to only 5-point dogs in Game 3, a game that the Milwaukee Bucks simply have to have.  Look for the Bucks to be the team playing with the sense of urgency here down 0-2 and for the Heat to have their worst performance of the series knowing that they have some breathing room.  I expect the Bucks to win this game with plenty of room to spare by double-digits.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have to win this game to get back in this series.  They are down 2-0 because Boston has shot lights out while Toronto couldn’t have been colder.  The Celtics are shooting 41.6% with 32 made 3’s in this series while the Raptors are shooting 26.3% with only 21 made 3’s.  It took an out of this world performance from Marcus Smart and his 5 3’s in the 4th quarter for the Celtics to win Game 2.  The Raptors will return the favor in Game 3 tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were at a huge disadvantage in Game 1 and I cashed in the Heat +5.5 because of it.  But I’m taking the Bucks in Game 1 tonight because that advantage no longer exists for the Heat.  The Heat had 7 days to get ready for the Bucks while the Bucks only had 1 day to get ready for the Heat.  But now the Bucks will be much more prepared here in Game 2 with another day of practice in between games to figure out the right strategy for the Heat.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by more than 10 points, and the Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver ML -105

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have all the momentum now after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the last 2 games by double-digits.  Jamal Murray has been unstoppable, and will continue to be tonight.  The Nuggets won a Game 7 against the Spurs last year so they won’t shy from the pressure.  And all the pressure feels like it’s on the Jazz in this one.  And the Nuggets have Gary Harris back healthy now to give Donovan Mitchell another look defensively after Mitchell had torched the Nuggets before his return.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  Take Denver on the Money Line.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat went 2-0 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season before the bubble.  They won 105-89 as 4.5-point home dogs and 131-126 as 11.5-point road dogs.  I’m willing to not count their 116-130 loss to the Bucks in the bubble as 10-point dogs because both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic sat out that game, and those are their two best players.  The Bucks let the Magic hang around the entire season despite a plethora of injuries for the Magic, including to their best player in Aaron Gordon, who didn’t play the entire series.  The Heat swept the Pacers and won all 4 games by at least 9 points each.  The Bucks have their hands full with the Heat starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Heat have had the last 6 days off to prepare for Milwaukee, while the Bucks only have one day to get ready for Miami after playing on Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* Nuggets/Jazz Game 6 *BAILOUT* on Denver +2.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets came up clutch down 3-1 and won 117-107 in Game 5.  I think they take a lot of confidence from that effort and force a Game 7 with another win in Game 6 tonight.  The Jazz aren’t going to keep shooting this well throughout the playoffs as they have shot 50% or better throughout the playoffs.  Mike Malone will make some defensive adjustments as he’s had a few extra days to get his Nuggets ready for Game 6.  The Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Denver.

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Magic/Bucks UNDER 225.5

The Key: The last 2 games in this series have seen 228 and 227 combined points after a 207-point output in Game 2.  The reason is simple.  Both the Magic and Bucks have shot lights out from 3-point range.  They have both shot at least 40% in each of the last 2 games with the Bucks 34-of-78 (43.6%) and the Magic 37-of-85 (43.5%).  I just cannot see this continuing, and as a result I love the UNDER 225.5 points in Game 5 today.  We just need a slight dip in 3-point shooting from one or both of these teams to cash this UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a must-win tonight to keep their season alive.  They battled hard in Game 4 but came up 2 points short.  The Jazz shot nearly 58% as a team and attempted 23 more free throws than the Nuggets.  Only a slight improvement in both categories should have the Nuggets winning this game outright.  The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Take Denver.

7* Pacers/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +6

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are a prideful team that won’t just lay down and die for the Miami Heat.  The Pacers have been in every game this series with all 3 games decided by 12 points or fewer.  And I think we are getting them at their best price of the series here as +6 dogs in Game 4.  The Heat are 10-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this year.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.  The Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win.  Take Indiana.

6* Bucks/Magic Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 225.5

The Key: The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game 3 and that game still only saw 228 combined points.  The Bucks won’t shoot that well again, and this game will stay UNDER the posted total of 225.5 as a result.  This is the pivotal game of the series where the Magic will either get back in it, or the Bucks will take control.  So expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one on both sides.  The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the last 8 matchups.  Take the UNDER.

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing for their season today down 0-3 in this series.  They were competitive in Games 1 and 3 with a pair of 8-point losses.  And now they are 8-point dogs in Game 4 after not being more than 6-point dogs in any other game in this series thus far.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  The 76ers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Rockets/Thunder Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are in must-win mode in Game 3 after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Rockets.  They choked away Game 2 in the 2nd half and went ice cold from the field.  They scored 59 points in the 1st half but just 39 points after intermission.  Look for them to put it all together and for the Rockets to relax in Game 3 with a 2-0 lead.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Indiana Pacers +5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in must-win mode in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 games of this series.  They were competitive in the first two games but couldn’t get it done in the 2nd half.  They will put it all together in what is essentially a win or go home game for them.  And I also expect the Heat to relax just enough with a comfortable 2-0 lead to let the Pacers have their way today.  Take Indiana.

7* Mavericks/Clippers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers will respond Friday after getting embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2.  It’s a Clippers team that was missing a lot of pieces during the restart, so it’s no wonder they have opened this season a bit rusty.  Look for them to put it all together in Game 3 and take back control of this series.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS off a loss this season.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Magic/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -12.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Orlando Magic, 110-122 as 13.5-point favorites.  Now they are shorter favorites in Game 2 and I think we see a role reversal here with the Bucks dominating from start to finish.  They’ll be playing with a sense of urgency today, something they did not do in Game 1.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 years.  They are coming back to win by 13 PPG on average in this situation.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a SU loss.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz forced overtime in Game 1 despite shooting just 16 for 47 (34%) from 3 while Denver shot 22 for 41 (53.7%).  Look for the Jazz to pull the upset in Game 2 as the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Donovan Mitchell, who scored 57 points in the opener.  And I fully expect him to get more help from his role players in this one, especially from 3-point range.  The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Utah.

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -9.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since the restart to pull within a half-game of the 9th spot in the West.  They are trying desperately to make the playoffs and are handling the pressure of the situation well.  The Philadelphia 76ers are looking to get healthy before the playoffs as that is their top priority right now.  They were already without Ben Simmons for the season, and now both Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson have been ruled out tonight.  Plus Al Horford and Tobias Harris are questionable with ankle injuries.  They are looking at essentially sitting their entire starting 5 for this one.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Phoenix.

6* Lakers/Nuggets Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Denver +5

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers already have the top seed in the West and can’t be trusted to be laying points tonight.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while losing those 3 games by a combined 40 points.  The Denver Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and are getting healthier.  They have more incentive to play well than the Lakers do right now as the Nuggets are fighting for playoff positioning in the crowded West.  Take Denver.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

6* Lakers/Pacers TNT *CA$H COW* on Indiana +7

The Key: The Lakers have clinched the top seed in the West and don’t have anything to play for.  They are playing like it as they have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS since the restart with 2 straight blowout losses to OKC by 19 and Houston by 16.  They should not be 7-point favorites against the Pacers today.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since the restart and trying to improve its seeding in the East.  The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

6* UNC/Syracuse ACC *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -3 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their only loss coming at Duke in a game they were competitive for 38 minutes.  Their 4 wins have come by 12.8 PPG including their 78-56 win over Virginia Tech yesterday.  It was basically a home game for the Tar Heels played in Greensboro.  And the blowout allowed them to get their starters some rest and stay fresh for Syracuse today.  This is a Syracuse team that UNC just beat 92-79 on the road on February 29th.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this year.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points. The Tar Heels are 9-0 SU in their last 9 matchups with Syracuse with all 9 wins by 4 points or more.  Take North Carolina. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

6* Nuggets/Mavericks ESPN *CA$H COW* on Denver -1 

The Key: This is a bad situation for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 7th game in 11 days after a 109-119 loss in San Antonio last night.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and are struggling due to injuries. Luka Doncic is playing through a wrist injury that is clearly hampering him, and they have 5 other players either out or questionable tonight.  The Nuggets are fully healthy and had yesterday off.  The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 matchups with the Mavericks.  Dallas is 4-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Denver. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -4.5 

The Key: This is a bad situation for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after losing a 115-122 shootout in Washington last night.  The Hawks had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.  Atlanta is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Knicks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as road underdogs.  The Hawks are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games, including 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games as home favorites.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Boston College/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College +9 

The Key: This number is clearly too high tonight when you look at the 2 regular season meetings between Notre Dame and Boston College.  BC won 73-72 a 12.5-point road dogs and ND won 62-61 as 5.5-point road favorites.  So both matchups were decided by exactly one point each, and the Eagles proved they could hang with the Fighting Irish twice.  Each of the last 4 matchups were decided by 6 points or fewer as well.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Notre Dame is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games against a team with a losing record.  Boston College is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Take Boston College. 

6* Tuesday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Cavs/Bulls OVER 215.5 

The Key: Now that Coby White is running the show the Bulls have been a much better offensive team.  White is has scored at least 19 points in 8 straight games while averaging 26.9 PPG.  And the Bulls just got back 3 of their top 5 scorers in Lauri Markkanen (14.7 PPG), Wendell Carter Jr. (11.1 PPG) & Otto Porter Jr. (11.7 PPG).  The Bulls are averaging 112.7 PPG in their last 7 contests.  But they have allowed 103 or more points in 17 straight games with the OVER going 12-5 in those games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games and they have combined for 217 or more points in 5 of their last 6.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or more off a close home win by 3 points or less, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 24-7 over the last 5 years.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They will be playing their 4th road game in 7 days and coming off a stunning upset win at Houston.  It has the makings of a letdown for the Magic tonight.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their 4 wins coming by a whopping 28 PPG.  That includes their 17-point home win over the Lakers.  Memphis is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games after winning 4 or 5 of its last 6 games.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 40% and 49% of their games this year.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The Grizzlies are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home matchups with Orlando.  Take Memphis. 

7* Virginia Tech/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -4 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 4 games all by 6 points or more.  And they were competitive in their road loss at Duke over the weekend.  The Tar Heels are a dangerous team in this ACC Tournament because they finally have their best player in Cole Anthony healthy, who averages nearly 20 PPG.  They didn’t have Anthony when they lost 77-79 at Virginia Tech in their lone matchup this year.  They will avenge that loss in blowout fashion with Anthony this time.  The Hokies have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  Take North Carolina. 

7* St. Mary’s/BYU WCC *BAILOUT* on OVER 145.5 

The Key: Books have made a big mistake and set this total lower than it should be tonight. The first 2 matchups between BYU and St. Mary’s were shootouts this season, and this one should fall in line as well.  They combined for 154 points at the end of regulation in their first matchup on January 9th and followed it up with a 160-point outburst in their rematch on January 1st.  BYU is averaging 83.1 PPG in conference play this year and has topped 80 points in 8 of its last 10 games overall.  St. Mary’s is scoring 77.4 PPG on the road this year and 83.4 PPG in their last 4 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in Gaels’ last 27 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gaels’ last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  Take the OVER.    

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz -4 

The Key: The Utah Jazz have won 5 straight games all by 5 points or more.  They will make it 6 in a row tonight as they take down the tired Toronto Raptors.  The Raptors will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a win in Sacramento last night.  They had to gut out that win over the Kings in the final seconds, which forced them to play their starters a ton of minutes.  Toronto had all 5 starters play at least 35 minutes in that contest.  It gets much tougher tonight with the thin air they’ll be dealing with in Utah’s altitude.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-41 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Utah. 

6* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV *CA$H COW* on Denver -5.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight.  The Bucks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 road games with losses at Miami by 16, LA Lakers by 10 and Phoenix by 9.  And they even had Giannis for those first 2 games.  The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Bucks tonight.  They’ll be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 6th game in 9 days to start the month of March.  They will also be playing in their 6th different city this month, so the travel has been brutal.  And they’ll be playing in thin air tonight in the altitude in Denver.  They face a hungry Nuggets team off 2 recent upset losses to Cleveland and Golden State.  The Nuggets are 24-8 at home this year and were the best home team in the NBA last year.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  The Bucks are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 matchups in Denver.  Take Denver. 

7* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -3.5 

The Key: Illinois wants to avenge its 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 at home this year and were are getting them very cheap tonight.  The home team has won and covered 4 straight matchups in this series.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU in Big Ten road games this year with an average loss of over 12 PPG.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference home loss.  The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home loss.  Take Illinois. 

6* UConn/Tulane AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulane +6.5 

The Key: The UConn Huskies are in a bad situation today.  They are coming off a huge upset win over Houston on Thursday, giving them just 2 days to get ready for Tulane.  At the same time Tulane hasn’t played since February 29th and comes in on 7 days’ rest.  And Tulane wants to avenge its 61-67 loss at UConn as 10-point dogs earlier this season.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games with upset wins over SMU at home and UCF on the road, as well as a 5-point loss at Tulsa as 10-point dogs and an OT home loss to Memphis as 4-point dogs.  They are playing well and will give UConn a stern test today.  Tulane is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after making 78% free throws or better last game.  UConn is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 road games after scoring 75 points or more in 5 straight games.  Take Tulane. 

6* Lakers/Clippers ABC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 

The Key: The Lakers have lost their first 2 matchups with the Clippers this season.  They want to avenge those 2 defeats and prove they can beat the Clippers, just like they proved they could beat the Bucks last game in a 113-103 home win.  The Lakers are now 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Clippers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Lakers. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons +8 

The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are coming off a 99-94 win in Boston last night.  They’ll now be playing for a 2nd consecutive day, their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game overall.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight, and they won’t be nearly as hungry to face Detroit as they were Boston.  The Pistons come in on 2 days’ rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with only a 3-point loss at Portland, a 6-point loss at Sacramento and a 7-point home loss to OKC.  They also upset Phoenix on the road as 9-point dogs.  The Pistons are 15-3 ATS in March games over the last 2 years.  The Jazz are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on 2 days’ rest.  Take Detroit. 

6* Rhode Island/UMass Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on UMass +3 

The Key: Rhode Island is coming off back-to-back blowout home losses to Saint Louis (62-72) and Dayton (57-84) that will keep them out of the NCAA Tournament unless they were to somehow win the Atlantic 10.  Those deflating losses will take their toll on the Rams today and they won’t even show up at UMass.  The Minutemen have been one of the most underrated home teams in the country this year.  They are 11-4 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in their 15 home games this year, and 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 home games dating back to last year.  UMass is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  Rhode Island is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  UMass is 8-1 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record this year.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in home games off a win this year.  Take UMass. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Missouri State -2.5 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears have a huge rest advantage over the Valparaiso Crusaders today.  They’ve only had to play one game in the MVC Tournament and just blitzed Indiana State 78-51 yesterday so they were able to rest their starters late.  Valpo has been in 2 dog fights with a 58-55 win over Evansville on Thursday and a 74-73 (OT) win over Loyola-Chicago Friday.  They used a ton of energy coming back from 14 points down at halftime against Loyola and obviously playing OT would have zapped even more energy out of them.  And Missouri State wants to avenge its 89-74 loss at Valpo on February 25th less than 2 weeks ago.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Missouri State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less.  The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their lat 10 games off a win by 10 points or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Valpo is 1-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

6* UNC/Duke ACC *CA$H COW* on North Carolina +11.5 

The Key: UNC is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record.  They have had so many close losses this season its sickening.  And one was in overtime after a blown double-digit lead late in their first matchup with Duke in a 96-98 setback.  They haven’t forgotten and will be seeking to avenge that loss against their biggest rivals today.  UNC is coming on strong down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  Duke has been consistently getting too much respect from the books in going 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their only wins coming at home over Virginia Tech & NC State.  UNC is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Duke is 4-13 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this year.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS win.  Take North Carolina. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 

The Key: The Charlotte Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with 5 upset wins outright.  They also nearly upset the Bucks, Spurs and Nuggets, losing by 8, 1, and 2 points to those 3, respectively.  So they can definitely hang with the Houston Rockets tonight, who will be without 2 of their top 3 scorers in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon.  Houston is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite.  The Hornets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a loss by 6 points or fewer.  Take Charlotte. 

6* Oklahoma State/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas -3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns were left for dead a few weeks ago.  But they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall to get to 19-11 overall and currently in the NCAA Tournament field.  They still can’t afford a slip-up here at home against Oklahoma State.  And 4 of those 5 wins came by double-digits with the only exception being their 52-51 upset win at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs.  Oklahoma State is 1-7 SU in Big 12 road games with all 7 losses coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 16.9 PPG.  And Texas beat Oklahoma State 76-64 on the road as 4-point dogs in their first matchup.  The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Texas. 

6* Drake/Bradley MVC *CA$H COW* on Bradley -2.5 

The Key: Bradley has a huge advantage over Drake today.  The Braves have only had to play one game thus far in the MVC Tournament with their 64-59 victory over Southern Illinois yesterday.  Drake will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after a shocking upset of Northern Iowa yesterday.  And I think Drake is getting too much respect from the books after that upset.  Bradley is far and away the superior team in this matchup.  The defending MVC champs haven’t been healthy for much fo the year, but they have had their 2 best players in Childs and Brown healthy down the stretch after they missed a combined 14 games this season.  They average nearly 30 PPG combined and mean everything to this team.  It’s no surprise the Braves have gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall with one of their losses coming by a single point to Loyola-Chicago.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.  The Braves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.  Take Bradley. 

7* Bucks/Lakers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1 

The Key: The Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 games and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight and avenge an earlier road defeat to them by 7 points.  We saw the Bucks struggle in their last 2 road games losing by 16 at Miami and failing to cover a huge spread at Charlotte in an 8-point win.  The Lakers come in on 2 days’ rest while the Bucks will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 76-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Missouri State/Indiana State MVC *CA$H COW* on Missouri State -2 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears are playing as well as anyone heading into the MVC Tournament.  They are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall with all 3 losses coming on the road and 2 by 4 points or less.  They beat today’s opponent in Indiana State 71-58 on the road as 4.5-point dogs on February 16th during this stretch.  Their last 5 wins have all come by 12 points or more and by an average of 21.0 PPG.  They’ve been downright dominant.  The Bears will certainly have the home-court advantage here with this tournament being played in their home state in St. Louis, MO.  The Bears are 9-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this year.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Bears are 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite this year.  The Sycamores are 2-10 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

6* Heat/Pelicans ESPN *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -1.5 

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are back home following an overtime loss at Dallas on Wednesday.  It was their 3rd straight tough loss all by 8 points or less.  The Pelicans will be hungry for a victory at home tonight against the Miami Heat, who have struggled on the road all season.  The Heat are just 13-18 SU & 12-18-1 ATS in all road games this year.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games.  The Heat are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games off a win.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Miami is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams that allow 110 PPG or more.  Take New Orleans. 

6* Friday MAC *CA$H COW* on Northern Illinois -1 

The Key: Northern Illinois is 11-3 at home this year and 7-1 at home in MAC games.  The Huskies want to avenge their 59-63 road loss at Ball State less than a month ago.  They just have to win to cover on Senior Night and that should be a task they can handle here tonight.  Ball State is 2-6 in MAC road games this year.  Bets on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that beat the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing another winning team are 52-22 ATS since 1997.  Northern Illinois blasted Toledo 71-50 at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* Richmond/Duquesne Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on Richmond -1 

The Key: Richmond (23-7) is fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  The Spiders have come up clutch down the stretch in going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games overall with their only loss coming on the road at St. Bonaventure.  Duquesne hasn’t exactly been a great home team.  The Dukes are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They have failed to cover their last 4 with upset losses to GW as 10-point favorites and St. Bonaventure as 3.5-point favorites.  They also failed to cover in a 2-point win as 9.5-point favorites over La Salle and a 3-point win over George Mason a 8.5-point favorites.  Richmond is 22-2 SU & 18-6 ATS in its last 24 matchups with Duquesne, including 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Duquesne.  The Dukes are 0-6 ATS off a road win this season.  Take Richmond. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are playing their way into playoff contention as they are just 3.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th seed.  The Kings are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall which includes wins against playoff teams in Memphis (twice) and the Clippers.  Their only loss came by 4 points at OKC as 7-point dogs.  They will handle the short-handed 76ers tonight.  The 76ers are playing without 3 starters right now in Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson.  They will be playing their 3rd straight road games tonight after road losses to the Clippers and Lakers.  The 76ers are 9-23 SU & 8-22-2 ATS in road games this year.  Philadelphia is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The 76ers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Stanford/Oregon State Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford ML +105 

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are making their push to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with road wins over Washington (72-64) and Washington State (75-57), as well as home wins over Utah (70-62) and Colorado (72-64).  When this team has been fully healthy, they’ve been as good as anyone in the Pac-12.  And they aren’t going to fall to struggling Oregon State tonight.  The Beavers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall with those 4 losses coming by 16.0 PPG.  The Cardinal want to avenge their 63-68 upset home loss to the Beavers on January 30th.  Stanford is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in its last 21 trips to Oregon State.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  The Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.  Oregon State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Bets on road dogs or PK off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against a team that is off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 26-5 ATS since 1997.  Take Stanford. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +17 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a nice bet on the road this season because they are consistently catching too many points and never quit.  Despite being just 2-11 SU in all games played away from home, the Huskers have gone 9-4 ATS.  They have only beaten beaten by more than 17 points on the road 3 times, and two of those were 19-point losses.  They have hung within 6 of Indiana, 5 of Northwestern, 12 of Ohio State, 3 of Rutgers, 2 of Maryland and 12 of Illinois in Big Ten road games this season.  Michigan was just upset at home by Wisconsin 74-81 and got blown out at Ohio State 63-77 in its last 2 games.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days this year.  The Huskers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this year.  Take Nebraska. 

7* Dayton/Rhode Island Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Rhode Island +4.5 

The Key: The Rhode Island Rams (20-8) are squarely on the bubble now after losing at home to a very good Saint Louis team on Sunday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against Dayton tonight.  They want to avenge their 67-81 road loss at Dayton in which they shot just 28.8% from the field and 20% from 3-point range.  They aren’t going to shoot that poorly again at home, where they are 12-2 SU this year.  Dayton has already wrapped up the Atlantic 10 and won’t be that hungry to beat Rhode Island for a 2nd time this year.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss where the other team scored 75 points or more.  The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Rhode Island. 

6* Villanova/Seton Hall Big East *CA$H COW* on Seton Hall -3.5 

The Key: The Seton Hall Pirates lead the Big East by 2 games over Creighton and Villanova.  Well, they end their season with games against Villanova and Creighton.  They can clinch the regular season conference title with a win on Senior Night Wednesday.  They don’t want it to come down to a road game at Creighton on Saturday.  Look for them to handle their business tonight and beat Villanova for a 2nd time this year.  They topped Villanova 70-64 as 4-point road dogs on February 8th.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a conference win as an underdog in a game involving 2 good teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games are 74-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Pirates are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games overall.  Take Seton Hall. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves put a lot into their 139-134 upset win at New Orleans as 10.5-point dogs last night.  Now they will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Bulls had yesterday off and are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with upset wins over the Wizards by 9 and the Mavericks by 2.  The Bulls just got back Otto Porter Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. from injury and could get back Lauri Markkanen tonight.  They will be a sneaky team moving forward the healthier they get.  The Timberwolves are just 3-20 SU & 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  That includes 1-11 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  They should not be favored over the Bulls tonight given the situation.  The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering 3 of their last 4 ATS.  Take Chicago. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +7 

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off 3 straight wins and just upset the Milwaukee Bucks at home on Monday.  They won’t be nearly as hungry to face the Magic tonight, especially after already beating the Magic in their last 2 matchups in 2020.  Orlando will be playing with a chip on its shoulder off an upset home loss to the Blazers and to avenge those 2 H2H defeats.  The Magic are fighting to make the playoffs and will give the Heat more than they bargained for tonight.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Steve Clifford is 14-4 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Orlando.  The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  Take Orlando. 

6* LSU/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -3 

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are 17-6 in games in which Isaiah Joe has played this season and 1-5 in games he has missed.  Joe has been back for the last 3 games and has been huge for this team, scoring 21, 22 and 26 points in those 3 games.  He averages 16.9 PPG on the year and means everything to this team.  The Razorbacks are 13-4 at home this year and will avenge their tough 77-79 loss at LSU in their first matchup.  LSU is 1-4 SU in its last 5 road games which includes an upset loss to Vanderbilt as 11.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games off a conference win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off a SU win.  Take Arkansas. 

6* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa -4.5 

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes want to avenge their ugly 68-104 road loss at Purdue earlier this year.  It was a complete aberration as the Boilermakers made 19 3-pointers and simply couldn’t miss.  The Hawkeyes haven’t forgotten and will be looking to return the favor.  Iowa is 14-1 SU at home this year and 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS in Big Ten home games.  Purdue is 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in road/neutral games this year.  The Boilermakers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 Big Ten road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Iowa. 

6* Texas/Oklahoma Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +7 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns have played their way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble by going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall with 3 upset wins.  They went on the road and beat Kansas State by 11 and Texas Tech by 10 while also beating WVU by 10 and TCU by 14 at home.  Their games haven’t even been close.  There’s no way they should be 7-point dogs here.  They are playing much better now than they were when they lost 62-72 at home to rival Oklahoma back on January 8th.  That’s the only reason this line is this high, and you can bet the Longhorns are hungry to avenge that defeat.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win. The Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games off 2 straight conference wins.  Take Texas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +9 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming by 4 points or less.  They are trying to hold on to a playoff spot in the East.  The Nets come in on 2 days’ rest and will be ready to try and take down the Celtics tonight.  The Nets have been playing well for over a month as they have only lost one of their last 14 games by more than 8 points, which makes for a 13-1 angle backing the Nets when you factor in this 9-point spread.  The Celtics will get Kemba Walker back tonight from a knee injury, but this line has been adjusted too much for it.  He’ll be on a minutes restriction.  The bigger worry for the Celtics is that both Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are questionable due to the same illness.  The Nets are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Nets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games after losing 4 of their last 5 games.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on Richmond -5.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford a slip up here down the stretch of the regular season.  Richmond is 22-7 on the season, 12-4 in conference play and 13-2 at home.  The Spiders went on the road and beat Davidson 70-64 in their first matchup.  They won’t have much of a problem winning by 6 points or more in the rematch at home.  Davidson just gave up 72.3% shooting to Dayton on the road Saturday and lost by 15.  They have a problem defending, which is not a problem Richmond has.  Davidson is 5-12 SU & 4-13 ATS in all road games this year.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take Richmond. 

6* Maryland/Rutgers Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Rutgers -1 

The Key: Rutgers is on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now because they can’t win a road game.  The good news is that the Scarlet Knights are at home tonight where they are 17-1 SU this season with their only loss to Michigan.  Rutgers wants to avenge its 51-56 road loss at Maryland on February 4th about a month ago.  The Scarlet Knights proved they could play with the Terrapins on the road, and all they have to do is win this game to cover at home Tuesday.  We’ll get a big effort from he Scarlet Knights tonight.  Rutgers is 8-1 ATS revenging a road loss this year.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams that allow 64 PPG or fewer.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Take Rutgers. 

6* Texas Tech/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech +7.5 

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are slipping closer to the bubble than they’d like after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and Texas.  It came out of nowhere as they had won 5 of their previous 6 games.  Now the Red Raiders want to avenge their 52-57 home loss to Baylor.  The Bears are reeling after 2 upset losses in their last 3 games at home to Kansas and on Saturday on the road at TCU as 9.5-point favorites.  They know now that their chances of winning the Big 12 are slim to none because they’d need Kansas to lose again. That’s not going to happen.  Bets on road teams as a dog or PK that are revenging a SU loss as a home favorite, off 2 consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more are 45-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Texas Tech. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +4 

The Key: The Miami Heat are 25-4 SU at home this year.  This will be one of Milwaukee’s toughest games of the season and I think the Bucks lose this game outright due to the situation.  The Bucks will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after escaping with a 93-85 win at lowly Charlotte on Sunday.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They could be without All-Star Khris Middleton (21.1 PPG) for a 3rd straight game as he is questionable.  Don’t be surprised if they limit Giannis’ minutes too after he played 35 minus against the Hornets Sunday.  The Heat are 16-3 ATS in their last 29 home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games.  Miami is 26-12-2 ATS in its last 40 games off an ATS loss.  The Heat are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home matchups with Milwaukee.  Take Miami.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  That includes upset home wins over the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Nets and also a win over the Mavericks.  They have a great home court edge as fans are excited to turn out to see Trey Young and company in action.  The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  This bad stretch can be attributed to injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who combine to average 28.9 PPG & 10.5 RPG.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games losing by 17.8 PPG.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Minnesota/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5 

The Key: No team is playing better than the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with road wins over Nebraska by 17 and Michigan by 7 as well as home wins over Ohio State by 13, Purdue by 4 and Rutgers by 8.  Now they want to avenge their 52-70 road loss at Minnesota as 1-point favorites on February 5th in the game that preceded this winning streak.  Wisconsin is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home matchups with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers led the entire way against Maryland last time out but lost on a last-second 3-pointer 73-74.  They have no chance of making the NCAA Tournament now and I question their motivation.  It’s always tough to come back from a last-second loss in a game you should have won.  Wisconsin is 13-1 SU at home this year while Minnesota is 2-8 SU in true road games.  The Gophers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  Take Wisconsin. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons +8 

The Key: The Detroit Pistons are showing some fight in going 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall against a brutal schedule with 4 road games at Orlando, Portland, Denver and Phoenix as well as a home game against Milwaukee.  They just upset the Suns 113-111 as 9-point road dogs on Friday and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Sacramento will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The situation is a bad one for the Kings, who return home from a 4-game road trip.  That first game back home is almost always a flat spot following a long road trip.  And the Kings won’t be able to get up for the Pistons tonight.  Sacramento is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 home games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Kings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.  The Pistons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 matchups in Sacramento.  Take Detroit. 

6* Indiana/Illinois Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois -5.5 

The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini have won 3 straight with 2 of those on the road at Penn State and Northwestern.  The Fighting Illini are 13-3 at home this year and take on an Indiana team that has been one of the worst road teams in the Big Ten.  The Hoosiers are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with their only wins coming at Nebraska and Minnesota, two teams you will find at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.  Those 7 road losses all came by 8 points or more and by 14.4 PPG on average.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that wins more than 60% of their home games.  Take Illinois. 

6* Arizona/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on UCLA +3.5 

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats have lost 2 straight games to Oregon and USC in upset fashion.  They are battling through some injuries right now to 2 key players in Green and Hazzard, who combine to average more than 17 PPG.  Both sat out their ugly 48-57 loss at USC and Green will for sure be out for this one.  That’s bad news against a UCLA team that already upset them 65-52 in Arizona earlier this month.  UCLA has won 10 of its last 12 games overall while going 8-3-1 ATS in the process.  The Bruins are 6-0 SU in their last 6 home games, so they should not be catching points.  But that's a good thing considering the underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 matchups.  Take UCLA. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Golden State Warriors +8.5 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-113 at home to Detroit as 9-point favorites last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The situation makes us fade them tonight and back the Warriors, who want to avenge their 106-112 loss at Phoenix as 6.5-point dogs on February 12th earlier this month.  Now they are getting 8.5 points in the rematch and the Suns are in an awful situation.  It’s too many points.  Bets against home teams that allowed 110 points or more last game against a team that is off 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Suns are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups in Phoenix.  Take Golden State. 

6* Michigan State/Maryland Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +3 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans want to avenge their 60-67 home loss to Maryland on February 15th exactly 2 weeks ago.  The Spartans held a 7-point lead late, but the Terrapins closed the game on an unthinkable 14-0 run to win by 7.  Look for a little role reversal here from this prideful Spartans squad.  Maryland is 15-0 at home, but it is very fortunate to be unbeaten.  They only won by 2 over Nebraska, by 5 over Rutgers and by 1 over Illinois.  They are clearly beatable at home.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Maryland has only beaten the Spartans by more than 3 points once in the last 8 matchups.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -3 

The Key: The USC Trojans are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have consistently been lacking respect from oddsmakers.  That showed Thursday when they upset Arizona 57-48 getting 4.5 points at home.  And they only lost by 2 at Arizona State in their first matchup.  USC is 12-2 at home this year and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  The Trojans have won 17 of their last 21 home matchups with Arizona State.  Take USC.