Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers OVER 183.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
Washington has had three extra days off in preparation for this series and while that could help the defense, I think the offense will benefit more as they should be highly energized against a likely tired Pacers defense. The Wizards went under in their final game against the Bulls but prior to that, they had gone over in six straight games. The Pacers meanwhile stayed under in their final two games against Atlanta as they really picked up the defensive intensity and going back, five of the last six games stayed under. As mentioned, the Pacers could be tired playing with just one day of rest and that will hurt the defense more than anything else. While we are getting a good number based on recent games, this total has a lot of value included in it and part of that is due to the regular season series. All three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but at the same time, the lowest over/under in those three games was 185.5 so you can see the big drop here. Both teams went over in their first round series openers which makes since as it was a feeling out the opposition for both sides and I expect the same to happen here. As mentioned, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Wizards games and the over is 5-2 in the seven games Washington played following three or more days rest while the over is 5-2 in the last seven Pacers home games. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Indiana Pacers |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
We won with the Wizards/Bulls under last night and we are playing this one for a lot of the same reasons and it is considered even more of a contrarian play. This has quietly been one of the best playoff series as three of the four games have gone into overtime and that certainly has not helped the under. All four games of this series have gone over the total and going back to the regular season and last year, 11 straight meetings have surpassed the total. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent though as the linesmakers know they cannot set this one very much higher as it is at a very high number already. We played the under in Game Three and that obviously did not come through but it is based on the contrarian aspect as well as what was stated in the other analysis. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 46.4 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 43.8 percent from the floor in the first four games so it has been about pace, and overtime, and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, this definitely has a chance of busting the over streak. With Houston trailing 3-1 in this series and now playing back home in a must win situation, this is the game where the defensive effort is picked up. When breaking down by quarter, the magic number is 54 which is the average per quarter to hit the total and through the first four games, the under is 8-6-2 for quarters that have stayed below the 54-point plateau so there have been more lower scoring periods than higher scoring ones which is the ultimate goal. 10* Under (519) Portland Trailblazers/(520) Houston Rockets |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
In what was expected to be a low scoring series, the first four games between Washington and Chicago have all gone over the total. We have seen the over/under steadily rise from the opening game and while we are getting roughly the same number as in Game Four, it is still on the value side and we are able to get a number a little bit higher. The key here is the Chicago defense which has not looked like the typical Chicago defense as it has allowed at least 97 points in each game, although one of those did go into overtime. The Bulls allowed 91.8 ppg during the regular season which was the fewest in the league and their 43 percent shooting allowed was second best. They have allowed Washington to shoot 44.7 percent which isn't bad but the first two games as home were not good. The good thing is that Chicago has gotten progressively better in each game and we will see a big bounceback at home after allowing the Wizards to shoot 48.7 percent in those first two games in Chicago. The Bulls have gone under the total in 20 of 32 games when they are favored at home and while Washington has been more of an over team throughout the season, I fully expect the home team to dictate the pace and clamp down on defense to keep this series alive. 10* Under (507) Washington Wizards/(508) Chicago Bulls |
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04-25-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 216 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. I feel that is the case here for Game Three between Houston and Portland as we are seeing the total inch up from the first two contests. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a reoccurrence. And the reoccurrence here is going to have the public all over the over once again. Not only have the first two games of this series gone over but going back to the regular season, all six meeting have surpassed the number. Going back even further, the last nine meetings have gone over the total so you know where the public will be lined up on Friday. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 45.3 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 42.1 percent from the floor in the first two games so it has been about pace and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, we should be fine. Going even further contrarian, Portland has gone over the total in five straight games going back to the regular season so that adds some more value. Look for the over streak to be broken on Friday. 10* Under (743) Houston Rockets/(744) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198 | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. Dallas and San Antonio square off tonight for Game Two and the Mavericks still have to be hurting from blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead as the Spurs went on a 14-0 run to take the opener. That game stayed well below the total, by 28 points to be exact, and because of that we are catching a great number in Game Two. The first game total closed at 203 and for tonight, we are seeing a lot of 198 totals out there so we can use the bounce angle to our advantage. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a recurrence. While this is a purely situational theory, the matchup is on our side as well. Three of the four regular season meetings went over the total and the one game that did stay under, enough points were scored to surpass what we are given tonight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA and during the regular season, the Spurs and Mavericks ranked second and fourth in shooting percentage respectively and that was not on display in Game One but we should see a significant improvement tonight. Rest is key as Dallas is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games playing with two days rest while the Spurs are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games playing with two days rest. 10* Over (729) Dallas Mavericks/(730) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-02-14 | Fresno State v. Siena OVER 134.5 | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Playing on college basketball totals becomes a little more prevalent in the postseason as we get some very unique opportunities presented to us. We are catching one of those on Wednesday between Fresno St. and Siena as the CBI Tournament is distinctive in itself as it is a series which is similar to the NBA playoffs where the bounce angle comes into effect. We have seen the bounce angle (or zig zag theory) go the other way in recent years in the NBA Playoffs as linesmakers and even the law of averages have turned this once profitable theory into a bust. The situations though cannot be overlooked and we take it to the college ranks tonight. The first game of this series stayed under the total by close to 20 points and with that one closing at 137.5, we are now seeing a number that is up to three points less in this second game. That is where we get the value in the zig zag as linesmakers have to adjust accordingly and in this case, we are going against a bug under run for Siena that has reached nine games and that is a streak I will gladly go against. Siena hit only 21 of 63 shots (33.3 percent), but with 17 offensive rebounds and by forcing 16 turnovers the Saints were able to get up 17 more shots than the Bulldogs. I expect the shooting to be much better tonight, for both sides actually. Additionally, playing a tough game just two nights ago and having to travel all the way from the west coast to the east coast hurts one thing and that is the defensive legs on both sides. Look for a much higher scoring game in Game Two. 10* Over (527) Fresno St. Bulldogs/(528) Siena Saints
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04-01-14 | Minnesota v. Florida State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Both Minnesota and Florida St. have gone over the total in two of their three NIT games but all of those games were on their respective home floors and a change in environment as well as the pace of play should give us a low scoring game on Tuesday. Home court plays a big role in the NIT which is a reason why many of the top seeds advance into the final four at MSG but they are not used to the new surroundings and we have seen teams struggle offensively when coming here. Since 2010, this has definitely been the case. That year, Dayton/Mississippi and North Carolina/Rhode Island both stayed under the total by 30 points combined. In 2011, Washington St./Wichita St and Colorado/Alabama both stayed under the total by 47.5 points combined. In 2012, Massachusetts/Stanford and Washington/Minnesota both stayed under the total by 21 points combined. In 2013, BYU/Baylor and Iowa/Maryland both stayed under the total by 15.5 points combined. In total, the last eight NIT semifinal games have all gone under and it is not pure coincidence as MSG has a reputation of bad shooting sightlines so it comes as no surprise that teams have had trouble offensively. The Gophers are 10-3 to the under after one or more consecutive overs this season and Florida St. is part of a great situation where we play the under in neutral court games where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points in a game involving two slow-down teams that average 55 or fewer shots per games after 15+ games, after a game where it made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots. This situation is 41-12 (77.4 percent) since 1997. 10* Under (769) Minnesota Golden Gophers/(770) Florida St. Seminoles
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03-30-14 | Connecticut v. Michigan State OVER 139 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Both Elite 8 games on Saturday stayed under the total but those games featured some of the top defenses in the nation with Arizona and Florida ranked one and two respectively in adjusted defense. That is far from the case here as Connecticut and Michigan St., which normally rely on very strong defenses, are not as tough on that side of the floor this season. Yes, they both allow fewer than 40 percent shooting from the floor but the Huskies are 13th in adjusted defense while the Spartans are 34th. This is a fantastic matchup of guards and these teams boast two of the best backcourts in the country. That helps the perimeter shooting and long range touch as the Huskies are 16th in the nation in three-point shooting while the Spartans are 18th in three-point shooting. Easy second chance points for Michigan St. will help and we will see those as the only reason the Cyclones were in the last game was due to hitting the offensive glass hard, and that could be a problem for Connecticut against the Spartans as well. After playing a slow paced game against Virginia, Michigan St. will be more than happy to pick up the pace here and the Spartans are not averse to playing a fast-paced game and Connecticut will go along for the ride. The Huskies have gone over in all three tournament games thus far which snapped a run of eight straight games that went under and this is a great spot for the streak to continue. Michigan St. is 8-0 to the over after a combined score of 125 points or less this season with those games averaging over 157 ppg and it has gone over the total in its last six games following a game that stayed under the number. 10* Over (717) Connecticut Huskies/(718) Michigan St. Spartans
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01-06-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 197 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
After going over the total is 13 of 14 games, the Hawks have stayed under the number in each of their last three games and I feel that streak comes to an end tonight. Atlanta has faced three very good defensive teams in each of the previous three games as Chicago and Golden St. are third and fourth respectively in defensive shooting percentage while Boston is allowing just 97.3 ppg which is sixth fewest in the NBA. Brooklyn is no where near those rankings as it is in the bottom half of both categories. The Nets are coming off two straight unders, the first coming against Oklahoma City which is ranked second in the league in defensive shooting percentage. The second came against Cleveland which is in the top half of the NBA in defensive shooting percentage. Atlanta is allowing 101.1 ppg and its 45.8 percent shooting allowed is 11th highest in the league. Both of these offenses should be able to take advantage of the weak stop units and because of the recent results, we are catching a solid total tonight. When the total is between 190 and 199.5, the teams have combined to go 24-11 to the over. Additionally, Atlanta is 21-7 to the over in its last 28 road games while Brooklyn is 10-3 to the over in its last 13 home games against teams with a losing road record. Look for a high scoring game in Brooklyn tonight. 10* Over (703) Atlanta Hawks/(704) Brooklyn Nets
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12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 210 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
We are playing a rare NBA total here but these will become more regular going forward as we have some solid history to work with plus we have a very good idea of where the linesmakers are starting to shade the totals towards. Sacramento comes in with a 6-14 record as its losing ways continue but at least the offense has shown a pulse as the Kings have gone over 100 points in four straight games. To no surprise, all four of those games have gone over the total and overall, Sacramento is 9-2 to the over when surpassing the century mark. Now however, the Kings are seeing their highest over/under of the season and we are banking on the over run to come to a halt. Phoenix is also on an over run, surpassing the total in two straight games as well as six of its last seven contests. The majority of the Suns games have gone over this season but like the Kings, this is the highest total they have seen all season. The recent over runs on both sides are definitely playing into that but this is the time to hit the other way because of the significant value. Sacramento games are averaging 200.6 ppg while Phoenix games are averaging 201.7 ppg so there is plenty of leverage in this total tonight. Here we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 200 involving home teams after two or more consecutive overs going up against a road opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Sacramento is 9-0 to the under in its last nine road games after a loss by 20 points or more while Phoenix is 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games coking off a win as a road underdog. 10* Under (823) Sacramento Kings/(824) Phoenix Suns
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11-14-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 207 | Top | 115-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
While most will be expecting a shootout in Oakland on Thursday, I am expecting a lower scoring game that should stay below this inflated number. The Thunder played last night which made it three straight overs and they have gone under in four of their last five games playing with no rest. Golden St. meanwhile has gone over in two straight games but those totals were lower than tonight's and note than the Warriors have gone under in all three games this season when the total is higher than 206 which is the case tonight. This has been a very high scoring series as well and that is going to add to the public money on the over and all of this is beneficial to us as the number is inflated based on the public reaction. Oklahoma City is 14-3 to the under in its last 17 road games after scoring 100 points or more five straight games while the under is 7-1 in the Warriors last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Additionally, we have a league-wide situation favoring both teams as we play the under in the first half of the season where the total is between 200 and 209.5 involving teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (503) Oklahoma City Thunder/(504) Golden St. Warriors
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11-12-13 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 198.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
We played this total last week which stayed well below the number. We got the possessions and shots we wanted but they just were not falling last Friday as Los Angeles and New Orleans shot a combined 41 percent from the floor while making only nine three-pointers. Tonight we are catching a better number as this is the first Lakers total that is under 200 on the season and a lot of that has to do with three straight unders hitting the window in their games. As for New Orleans, it has also gone under the total in three straight games as defensively, they remain one of the best in fewest shots allowed as 80 has been the highest total the Pelicans have given up. The Lakers are averaging 89 shots per game at home while New Orleans is averaging 86 shots per game on the road and the Lakers defense is not going to be helping much as they are allowing an average of 106.5 ppg to rank near the bottom of the NBA and were outscored 50-32 in the paint and 19-9 in transition in their last game against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost in Phoenix in their most recent game on Sunday as they committed 17 turnovers and scored only 16 points in the first quarter and no offense is going to overcome those figures. Also, Despite going only 4-13 with three-pointers against the Suns, the Pelicans still lead the NBA with 43.8 shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Lakers are 21-7 to the over in their last 28 games after three straight games where they shot 42 percent or worse. Additionally, the over is 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 games against team with a losing record while the over is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (507) New Orleans Pelicans/(508) Los Angeles Lakers
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06-20-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 189.5 | Top | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
We lost with the under on Game Six as it was looking good until the Miami comeback sealed our fate which sent the game into overtime. I am coming back with the under tonight however as I feel the situation is perfect for a very low scoring affair. It is also going against the over streak which many will be riding once again. We have now seen the last four games go over the total and the last three have not even been close. Game Four saw 202 points, Game Five saw 218 points and Game Six saw 203 points. People will be expecting to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. This is where there is a difference from the past and it is almost as though the linesmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the over. Whereas the total has risen each of the last three games to compensate for the over action coming in, this number has actually gone down from Game Six so many will feel there is value by taking the over. That may be the case from a raw numbers standpoint but not a situational standpoint. History shows these games are played tighter than others as the last three NBA Finals Game Seven total scores have been 162, 155 and 174. Clearly, defense is emphasized. We also have a great situation on our side as we play on the under in the NBA Finals where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 50-18 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (713) San Antonio Spurs/(714) Miami Heat
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06-18-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 191 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
We won with the Over in Game Three as the number cleared the total by three points and that gamer triggered an Over barrage as the last two games have also gone over the total. The last two were not even close as Game Four saw 202 points while Game Five saw 218 points. That last game was easily the highest scoring game of the season series between the Heat and Spurs, regular season and playoffs, and it was also the highest scoring regulation game for San Antonio in the playoffs. It was also the highest scoring game for Miami in the playoffs as well so that will only help us out even more here. People will be expected to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. Because of the recent high scoring, the linesmakers have been forced to adjust the total to accommodate the Over action and thus, we are seeing the highest total of this series so far. That presents a ton of value. San Antonio is 8-1 to the under this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games and while going 12-3 to the under this season after scoring 60 or more points in the first half. Miami has gone under the total in four straight home games while going 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against winning teams. The Spurs also have a solid situation on their side for a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points involving a team shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent that allowed 55 percent or higher in its last game. This situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (711) San Antonio Spurs/(712) Miami Heat
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06-11-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 187.5 | Top | 77-113 | Win | 100 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The first two games of this series went under the total with both closing totals being 189.5. Now the series shifts to San Antonio and we are catching a lower over/under to work with and it is the lowest total in the four meetings going back to the regular season. The Heats have now gone under the total in five straight games which makes this game a great situation to go the other way. The defense has led the way over this stretch as Miami has allowed just 84.4 ppg and the main reason has been limited opponents shots as it has forced opponents to shoot an average of 74.8 attempts per game. This is down significantly from its 80.9 attempts per game allowed during the regular season. San Antonio will have something to say about this on its home floor. The Spurs defense has limited the made shots over the last five games but they have allowed an average of 88.2 attempts per game over that span and more shot on offense from both sides means a potentially higher scoring game. I expect San Antonio to shoot the ball better than it did in Game Two as the big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili went a combined 10-33 (30.3 percent) from the floor. The Spurs have gone over in five of their last six home games while going 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a loss. Meanwhile Miami is 10-4-1 to the over in its last 15 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) San Antonio Spurs
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05-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 185.5 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
After another over in Game Four, the first four games of this series have now all gone over the total and while we got burnt the last game, we will come back with the under again tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are again catching a valued number as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far in this series. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 5-0 in its last five games while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last five games going over the total as well. I mentioned Indiana needed a strong defensive effort in Game Four and it got it as it held Miami to 39 percent shooting from the floor. While the Pacers shot 50 percent that game, the reason the game cleared the total was due to free throws as the teams combined for 60 attempts, making 50 of those. This has been the story of late as after making a combined 40 free throws in Game One, they have averaged just over 49 makes the last three games. I expect that to come down as these teams are averaging just a combined 36.2 makes per game on the season. Both teams fall into two solid situations. First, we play the under involving teams that have gone over the total in five straight games and are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. This situation is 156-96 (61.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Additionally, we play the under where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series which is tied. This situation is 104-64 (61.9 percent) since 1996. 10* Under (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Miami Heat
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The first three games of this series have all gone over the total but I expect that to come to an end tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are catching a great number in doing so as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far so we are getting additional value on top of it. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 4-0 while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last four games going over the total as well. The Pacers need this game badly to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series and the only way to do that is to do a better job on the defensive end. The Heat's five starters each scored in double figures for the first time this postseason and overall they shot 54.5 percent from the floor while their 70 points in the first half set a franchise playoff record for points in a half. Indiana is allowing an NBA best 42.2 percent shooting on defense so that last effort was an aberration. Miami continued its strong play of defense, allowing the Pacers to shoot just 39.7 percent from the floor and over its last five games, it is allowing just 40.7 percent shooting. 10* Under (515) Miami Heat/(516) Indiana Pacers
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05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
It is crunch time for both teams tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a win in Game Five to extend the series but still needs to win the last two to take it. The Bulls meanwhile are up 3-2 but are in need of a win here to avoid going back to Brooklyn for Game Seven. With so much on the line, we should expect a game being played where each possession is critical and that will lead to a low scoring affair. The last two games of this series have gone over and we are now seeing a total that is seven points higher than it was in Game Four and 3.5 to 4 points higher than it was in Game Five which is providing excellent value. Injuries remain a big issue on both sides as the injury list is long both ways and that hurts the chemistry of the offenses more than anything. The big one for Chicago is the absence of Kirk Hinrich who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. He has averaged 14.3 ppg over the last three games he has played in this series before sitting out Game Five. The Bulls defense has responded very well following a poor effort as they are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Brooklyn meanwhile is 25-12 to the under in its last 37 road games after playing a game at home and more recently it is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games playing on two days rest. With the last two games easily going over the number, expect the opposite tonight in what will be a low scoring affair. 10* Under (539) Brooklyn Nets/(540) Chicago Bulls
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The first two games of this series have gone under the total and by a wide margin for that matter. Game One went under by 26.5 points while Game Two went under the total by 27.5 points. This is creating exceptional value going the other way as tonight's total is 6.5 points less than the Game One Total and 2.5 points less than the Game Two total. This is the lowest over/under in this series since the final game of last season when the posted total was 182.5 and the teams combined for 228 points. Going back to the regular season, the under has come in five straight meetings although two of those would have gone over if being played with tonight's total. I am expecting Boston to play a lot better offensively on its home floor following rough performances in New York the first two games. The 23 points the Celtics scored in the second half of Game Two was the fewest in the team's playoff history and the 25 points scored in the second half of Game One was not much better. The Knicks have limited Boston to 39.2 percent shooting on their home court but New York is clearly not the same team defensively on the road, allowing 46.3 percent shooting this season. Additionally, Boston is much better at home, shooting 47.7 percent from the floor which is sixth highest in the NBA. We play the over involving teams after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or less two straight games. This situation is 46-20 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1996. Also, Boston is 10-4 to the over in its last 14 games after scoring 75 points or fewer in its last game. 10* Over (739) New York Knicks/(740) Boston Celtics
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12-18-12 | Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 193.5 | Top | 92-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
After going over the total in four of five games, Utah has stayed under the number in each of its last three heading into Brooklyn tonight. The Jazz have managed just 84 and 86 points in their last two games both of which resulted in double-digits losses and they need to get the offense back in gear as they were one of just nine teams in the NBA that were averaging over 100 ppg heading into those games. The task does not get any easier against Brooklyn which has a solid defense although it has not been playing its best of late. The Nets are coming off a very low scoring game against Chicago where only 165 points were scored and that is adding value here. They came into that game allowing an average of 102.6 ppg over their previous seven games, five of which saw them allow 100 or more points. The Brooklyn offense has not been very strong either but facing the Jazz can turn that around in a hurry as Utah has given up 99 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games, allowing an average of 101.2 ppg over that stretch. The Nets have gone under in eight of 10 games on the road but are 8-5 to the over at home including four of their last five at the Barclays Center. Additionally, Brooklyn is 18-8 to the over in its last 26 home games following a loss while the Jazz are 29-15 to the over in their last 44 road games with a total between 190 and 199.5 points. 10* Over (505) Utah Jazz/(506) Brooklyn Nets
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12-16-12 | Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors OVER 197.5 | Top | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
We are getting some excellent value on this total based on recent results. Houston is coming off two straight low scoring wins at home against Washington and Boston and while both stayed under, those totals were placed at 206 and 207 so we are getting a number close to 10 points less that what those closed at. Obviously the opponent here has something to do with that but that should not cause the big drop in my opinion. Toronto has gone under in four straight games with at least one team being held to 88 or fewer points in each of those games. Prior to that, the Raptors previous seven games saw at least one team hit the century mark and to no surprise, five of those games went over the total. Making it more surprising was that five of those games had closing totals higher than what we are dealing with on Sunday. Houston has dropped six straight games on the road and defense has been the issue as it has allowed an average of 111.2 ppg over those six games and has allowed at least 114 points in four of the last five. The Raptors defense has been bad all season as it is allowing an average of 101.4 ppg which is the fourth most in the league. The worst? That would be the Rockets which are allowing an NBA-high 104.1 ppg. These two teams played a high scoring game in Houston less than three weeks ago and that total was at 203 so we are seeing a big drop from that as well. These teams are a combined 6-2 to the over this season when the total is priced between 195 and 199.5 while the over is 11-5 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in their last five road games against losing teams while Toronto is 5-2 to the over in its last seven games following a win and 4-1 to the over in its last five games after allowing less than 75 points in its previous game. 10* Over (801) Houston Rockets/(802) Toronto Raptors
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12-04-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 191.5 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
We have seen Oklahoma City go under the total in three of its last four games as the defense has been outstanding. Brooklyn has gone under the total in five of its last six games and both the offense and defense have kept the scores down. Because of these recent results, we are getting a much lower than expected number. The Thunder defense has been playing great as mentioned as they have allowed an average of just 82 ppg over their last four games but three of those were at home. They did allowed just 79 points in their last game at New Orleans but previous to that, Oklahoma City went over in its three previous road games. The offense has been a different story as the Thunder have eclipsed the century mark in nine straight games, averaging 111.3 ppg over that stretch. On the season, their 105.1 ppg scored is the highest average in the NBA. The Nets have gone under in three straight home games but the totals have all been higher than what is on the board for tonight so that is where the value comes into play. Four of their first five games at home went over and playing the highest scoring offense in the NBA will get back to that. Oklahoma City, while going 1-5 to the under when the total is at 200 or higher, is 8-4 to the over when the total is less than 200. The Over is 8-3 in Oklahoma City's last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Over is 9-4 in the Nets last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (705) Oklahoma City Thunder/(706) Brooklyn Nets
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11-11-12 | Orlando Magic v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 191 | Top | 74-82 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
We played this over on Friday and it was Orlando that let us down as the Magic scored a mere 68 points on 42.9 percent shooting. The problem was they took only 70 shots and they went to the free throw line only eight times which is unheard of in the NBA. Now they get a rematch with Brooklyn and we can expect Orlando to be a little more aggressive this time around in hopes of getting to the rim. The Magic scored 30 points in the paint and that obviously has to increase. The Nets did their part as expected as they were coming off a disastrous offensive effort at Miami as they scored just 73 points on 30-80 (37.5 percent) shooting. This included a putrid 3-21 (14.3 percent) from long range. They got worse as the game went along as Brooklyn scored a mere 32 second half points. Brooklyn bounced back with 107 points on 50 percent shooting and it matched the second half output against Miami with a 32-point fourth quarter against the Magic. The Nets offense has been better at home in the young season as they are shooting 46.8 percent including 50 percent from long range. They will be facing an Orlando defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 46.3 percent from the floor so Brooklyn should have no problem keeping the offense rolling. The Magic have had their struggles shooting on the road so far but the Nets are allowing opponents to shoot 47.6 percent in their home games so expect a big bounceback as Orlando has no where to go but up. Because of the low scoring game on Friday, the total has dropped from 195 then to 191 in this matchup so we are catching a good amount of value. Orlando has gone under in two straight games and the same goes for the Nets and today's total is well below any over/under each has seem over this stretch. Going back to last season, the over is 18-3-1 in Orlando's last 22 games after scoring less than 75 points in its previous game while the Nets are 5-0 to the over in their last five home games. There is a solid situation in pay as well as we play the over involving a team coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 80 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 45-19 (70.3 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Orlando Magic/(502) Brooklyn Nets
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01-12-12 | Orlando Magic v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 188.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off a big road win last night at Portland as it shot lights out, hitting 58.6 percent from the floor including 59.3 percent from long range. Seven players scored in double-figures but don't expect a repeat of this tonight. This was its most complete game of the season and for a team that has struggled with consistency, putting together consecutive solid efforts on the offensive end is a stretch. The Magic have gone over in their first two games of this roadtrip which presents value on the under here.
Golden St. played on Tuesday against Miami and the Warriors came away with a win in overtime. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak and despite scoring 111 points, the offense was not very good again as Golden St. shot just 40 percent from the floor and it was held to 96 points in regulation. The Warriors have now gone seven straight games with 96 points or fewer on offense during regulation, averaging only 90 ppg over that stretch. The Miami game went over but it was under at the end of regulation. The times of Golden St. being a run and gun team have gone as it has averaging just over 189 ppg in its games this season. That is part of the reason we are seeing a total as low as it has taken the linesmakers a while to catch up. The Warriors are 6-3 to the under this season including five of six staying under at home. Orlando is 7-3 to the under this season even though the last two have gone over so it too has been keeping games low, averaging just above 188 ppg in its games. Because of the recent results, the value is on the low side here and both teams have solid histories in this situation. Orlando is 24-8 to the under in its last 32 games with a total between 180 and 189.5 points including 13-4 to the under on the road. Golden St. meanwhile is 13-3 to the under in its last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 18-6 to the under in its last 24 home games. This total is over 20 points less than the last meeting and it is this much lower for a reason. 10* Under (509) Orlando Magic/(510) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -103 | 63 h 17 m | Show |
As expected, after two very low scoring games, we saw Game Five exceed the total by over 30 points as the 'over' easily cashed. Now that the series has seen its highest scoring game, and for the first time a 100-point effort from a team as well, we will be going back the other way as the series shifts back to Miami. The linesmakers made a pretty big adjustment from the Game Five closing number as their hands were tied and expect the public money to come onto the 'over' based on that last game.
Not only did one team surpass the century mark for the first time in this series, both teams did. Neither team could miss from the floor no matter what defense was thrown at them and this was definitely an aberration based on the first four games but we took advantage of it at the right time. Both offenses are strong and they were due for big games but the defenses have been the deciding factor the majority of the time and we will see those units take over back in Miami. One thing that did not change on Thursday was the pace of the game and it actually slowed down some. Shots were simply going in, especially from long range where Dallas was 13-19 and Miami was 8-20 and those 21 combined three-pointers were one short of the previous two games combined. The pace of the first four games was close to identical as there were 147, 148, 148 and 148 shot attempts but in Game Six, there were just 139 shots hoisted. There is no need to be concerned about the style of play changing. This is a must win game for Miami which is their its situation like this in the playoffs as it has yet to be on the brink of elimination. That means the defense will be on display as Miami is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The first and only time it happened in the playoffs, it allowed 75 point to Chicago next time out. Also, history is back as we play the 'under' where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the finals. This situation is 24-5 (82.8%) since 1996. 10* Under (711) Dallas Mavericks/(712) Miami Heat |
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06-09-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 184.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
The 'under' has come in with ease in the first two games of this series in Dallas and that is providing us with excellent value going the other way for Game Five. We are catching the lowest total in this series thus far and based on the bounce, or the zig zag, this game should be able to surpass it. We took the 'under' in Game Three and that easily stayed below the number and the big reason for the play was because of the history of low scoring games in the Finals in this parameter but I feel that finally breaks here.
The two defenses have been playing exceptional as neither offense has been able to get in rhythm at all. The thing is that both teams can score and they do have the capability of putting up big numbers. Both are averaging right around 100 ppg and both are shooting in excess of 47 percent and while we have only seen these percentages once in this series, Game Two, the situation calls for it here. This is the third straight game being played in Dallas and the acclimation will help the offenses of both sides. LeBron James is coming off a horrible game where he scored just eight points on 3-11 shooting. It is a pretty safe bet that he comes out strong on the offensive end and makes amends. On the other side Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks in their comeback but he made only six of 19 shots and was extremely sick with a sinus infection throughout. He finished with 21 points but it was a below average performance and with this being the pivotal Game Five, breakout games from them will also help the offenses around them. Miami is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games. On Tuesday, the Heat shot just 14.3 percent from long range but that helps us here as they are 8-0 to the 'over' this season coming off a game where they shot 20 percent or less of their three-pointers. Dallas meanwhile is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after allowing 90 points or fewer in two straight games while going 15-5 to the 'over' in its last 20 games following a win of three points or less. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-05-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 189 | Top | 88-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We played the 'over' in Game Two based on value because of the line adjustment from the first game. Now we will go back with the 'under' based on history and more appropriate adjustments that will be made by both teams. The comeback from Dallas on Thursday was a big one for the series and the mentality for both teams which sends this one into an even more defensive-geared situation. Based on history, we should see yet another low scoring game.
Based on the simple bump theory, both teams should have better efforts defensively. In Game One, Miami shot 38.8 percent from the floor while Dallas shot 37.3 percent. In Game Two, Miami hit 46.6 percent from the field while Dallas hit 48 percent. Those differences are huge because the teams combined for 147 shots in Game One and 148 shots in Game Two and if they stay in that same range with attempts in Game Three and the defense brings those shooting percentages down, it stays way 'under'. I mentioned that there would be an increase in fast break points in Game Two after the teams combined for 19 in the first game and that was the case as they combined for 29 fast break points on Thursday. Those possessions obviously speed up the game and lead to more possessions and points but we should see that number come back down here based on the law of averages. Since 1985 when the series is tied 1-1, the Game Three winner has won the championship all 11 times and that means defense is the key. History shows this situation to be very low scoring as we play the 'under' in NBA Finals games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 1996 and is a perfect 5-0 over the last five instances when the closing O/U is in that range. The average score overall is 176.2 ppg in those 26 games. Also, Miami is 18-7 to the 'under' in its last 25 road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 and 5-1 to the 'under' in its last six games as an underdog. 10* Under (705) Miami Heat/(706) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-02-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat OVER 186 | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Game One of this series stayed well 'under' the total, covering by more than 12 points, but Game Two adjustments will be made by the offenses to try and get something going. Both teams shot poorly on Tuesday as Dallas shot 37.3 percent while Miami shot just 38.8 percent and there was a total of only 19 fast break points. Dallas and Oklahoma City averaged 27 fast break points in the last series while Miami and Chicago also averaged 27 fast break points so we should see an increase this time around.
We are catching some solid value here as well as this total has dropped by more than a bucket from the closing O/U from Game One. We have used the zig zag with a lot totals during the postseason because of the adjustments made based on the previous game and a lot of these have come in the way we expected. Both regular season meetings between the Mavericks and Heat went 'over' the total as they scored 201 and 194 points in those games. Also, both Dallas and Miami are 5-3 to the 'over' in their last eight games. Miami is showing that it is the best defensive team in the NBA as it completely shut down Chicago and did a number on Dallas to open the Finals. The Mavericks lost an eight-point lead in the third quarter as they were held to just 10 points in the final 10 minutes of that period. Prior to that, the Mavericks made six 3-pointers in the first half and just seven shots from inside the arc. They are a much stronger team on offense than what was on display as for the season, they are averaging exactly 100 ppg. Miami is 14-7 to the 'over' after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games this season while Dallas is 21-11 to the 'over' after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The 'over' is 6-1 in Miami's last seven home games and it is 16-7 to the 'over' in its last 23 home games after having won five or six of their last seven games this season. This has been a good total for Dallas to get in a high scoring game as it is 19-10 to the 'over' this year when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (703) Dallas Mavericks/(704) Miami Heat |
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05-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 198.5 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
The last total we played in this series won as the 'under' came in by 18.5 points in Game Three on Saturday. The game on Monday went 'over' the closing total of 196 by a large amount thanks to overtime although it would have gone 'over' in regulation time as well. That has forced the linesmakers to move this total up once again as it has increased by over a bucket and that is giving us some solid value going the other way once again. We are seeing roughly the same total that stayed 'under' in Game Three.
After a high scoring first half in Game Four, Dallas and Oklahoma City combined for just 89 points in the second half and that was the fourth half in the last three games that has stayed under 100 points and that is the key number we are looking for. Actually those halves all had 92 points or less so they have shown the ability to not only go low but go way low. With the series shifting back to Dallas and Oklahoma St. in a must win spot, will see an emphasis once again on the defensive end. Offensively, the Thunder started strong and finished weak on Game Four. It seemed like they were ready to roll over their opponent right out of the gate, starting the game on a blistering tear making their first nine shots to jump out to a 18-8 lead in just over four minutes of play. They followed it up in the second quarter making their first 10 shots and entered halftime shooting an astounding 58-percent from the field. That quickly vanished and while defense will be the emphasis, the offense should come out slow again as well. The last three games have alternated between the 'over' and 'under' and the zig zag theory with totals has held pretty true to form throughout the postseason. We will see it continue in this series as well. The 'under' is 9-3-1 in the Mavericks last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 6-2 in the Thunders last eight games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These streaks get extended once again. 10* Under (517) Oklahoma City Thunder/(518) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-21-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201 | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. We missed the 'under' in Game Two but will go back with it here. Because of the high scoring game that took place in the first two games, the linesmakers need to keep this number high and it remains five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over' as will be the case again here.
The 'over' has come in four of the five meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios, with totals and not sides, in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The Game Two 'under' nearly panned out despite three quarters well into the 50's. Oklahoma City shot lights out in Game Two, hitting 55.7 percent of its shots. It took only 70 shots however and in the first two games, the teams are averaging just over 73 attempts per game. During the regular season, the Thunder averaged 80.6 shots per game while the Mavericks averaged 78.8 shots per game so these two teams are putting together lengthier possessions in the postseason and if not for the hot shooting by one side in the first two games, we would have seen much lower scoring games. The 'under' is 8-3-1 in the Mavericks last 12 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-2 in the Thunders last seven games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Also we play the 'under' with road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 that are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (509) Dallas Mavericks/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 200 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. Because of the high scoring game that took place, 233 points put on the board, the linesmakers needed to make a huge adjustment for Game Two and this current number is five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over'. There is no doubt it is too big of a move however.
The 'over' has come in three of the four meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The big exception was the Atlanta/Orlando series but other than that, we saw a lot of games go back and forth and that was due to total adjustments made. Speaking of adjustments, we will see some come Game Two from both sides. Namely the defensive side of things. Both teams were able to have a lot of success on the offensive end as three of the four quarters saw 56, 66 and 64 points scored. While both teams shot well, we did not see a ton of attempts. Oklahoma City took only 72 shots while Dallas took only 73 shots and the difference was that the two teams combined for 79 free throw attempts, making 71 of those. We are unlikely to see that again in Game Two. The 'under' is 8-2-1 in the Mavericks last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-1 in the Thunders last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The recent history between the two teams will signal another high scoring game however, there is a big difference and it goes back to the adjustments that will be made as those other meetings did not occur in consecutive games, as this one will. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-15-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 191.5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
Because of the last two games, we are getting a sensational number with this total in the final game of this series. It is actually the lowest total of the series thus far and the two most recent games that were low scoring are completely affecting it. In my opinion, it has come down way too much as the last two games are not only what should be taken into consideration. Three of the first four games in this series went 'over', all of which had higher totals than what we are seeing on Sunday.
All four of the regular season meetings and the first two games of this playoff series went 'over' and most of those went 'over' rather comfortably. The Game Five result was the first and the Game six result was the second in all 10 meetings between Oklahoma City and Memphis that at least one team didn't score 100 or more points. There was good value on the Game Six 'over' simply because of that but now that it has occurred two times in a row, the value is even greater. Oklahoma St. played incredible defense in Game Five which was an aberration or a case of Memphis missing shots. In Game Six, it was the Thunder offense that was dismal. After making his first two shots of the game, Kevin Durant finished the night shooting 3-14 from the field for just 11 points. What was worse was Durant taking nine 3-pointers in the game and making only one. Now that both of those occurrences have taken place, we are unlikely to see either happening again meaning more offense on both sides. Oklahoma St. fits the mold perfectly for it to make this one a high scoring affair. The Thunder are 8-1 to the 'over' after a loss by 10 points or more this season and an even more impressive 16-3 to the 'over' after scoring 85 points or less over the last three seasons, averaging 202.4 ppg in those 18 games. Meanwhile Memphis is 5-0 to the 'over' in its last five games following a win while going 7-2 to the 'over' in its last nine games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Over (753) Memphis Grizzlies/(754) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-12-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179 | Top | 93-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
After the last game of this series went 'under' I would normally be taking a hard look at the 'over' for this game but there are important factors that are signaling another low scoring game. First and foremost, this is a must win game for Atlanta and the Hawks are not a strong team offensively as they are averaging only 94.1 ppg on the season which is third lowest in the NBA. That means in order for Atlanta to force a Game Seven. It is going to have to get it done with defense and it should be up to the challenge.
With the last game not surpassing the number, the total tends to be adjusted next time out and while that is the case here, it is a rather small adjustment. The total currently is at 179 in a few places which is the highest and surprisingly, it is the highest of the three games that have been played in Atlanta. Certainly not by much but considering the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over' one would think this number would be adjusted further to take those games into account but it has not. The Bulls defense has really stepped things up. They have allowed 83 points or fewer in three of the first games in this series and they have won all three of those. They allowed 103 and 100 points in the other two games and those ended up as losses so in order for Chicago to avoid a Game Seven, even though it would be at home, it must clamp down on defense once again. The last game of this series stayed 'under' by a bucket but it could have been a lot more as it was skewed by a 53-point first quarter. Even though the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over', the Hawks are 7-2 to the 'under' in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record and the 'under' is 19-6 in their last 25 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 22-10 to the 'under' this season after allowing 85 or fewer points and it is 34-18 to the 'under' in its last 42 games coming off an 'under' in its previous game. Playing with a day of rest, the Bulls are on a 36-16 'under' run while the Hawks are on an 8-2 'under' run. 10* Under (741) Chicago Bulls/(742) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-11-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The last game finished with 192 points in regulation and had it not gone into overtime, the 'under' would have come in. People now see the 256 total points scored and they will surely be all over a high scoring game once again. Also, the Game Four scoring has skewed the overall averages, inflating them to the point where they cannot be looked at. Even the Game Three scoring is skewed because of the overtime even though that game stayed below the total.
With the 'over' hitting on Monday, that made it eight of the last nine meetings the 'over' has hit, including seven of eight played this season. Every one of those games has seen each team score at least 100 points and the linesmakers have had no choice but to boost this number up because of the large amount of action that will continue to come in on the 'over'. The total has gone up three points since the closing O/U from Game One and that is a big jump, even with what we have seen witnessed in this season series thus far. We played the 'under' in Game Two and all things considered, it was a bad break that it did not hit as going into the fourth quarter, only 144 points were on the board but the teams erupted for 69 points in the final period which carried it 'over'. What this tells us is that three straight games in this series could easily have gone 'under' yet two of the three went 'over'. Contrarian thinking is saying that despite the breaks going for the high scoring games, the 'under' is the play once again here. This is part of the zig zag theory that is based on totals as we go against the outcome of the previous game and we also have a contrarian situations that comes into play based on recent results. Oklahoma City is 10-1 to the 'under' in its last 11 home games after allowing 100 or more points in four straight games. Also, the 'under' is 5-0 in Oklahoma City's last five games after it scored 125 or more points in its previous game so it has not been a team that has carried offensive momentum forward. 10* Under (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-10-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
With the series heading back to Chicago, I expect to see a very low scoring game in this pivotal Game Five. The 'over' came through in both games in Atlanta and because of that, we are getting value in the 'under' for this game. The highest scoring game of the series was in Game One and the linesmakers were forced to push the number up in Game Two where the 'under' was successfully played. This is a similar situation where they had to make an adjustment and it is simply too much.
This is the highest total of the series so far and a lot of that has to do with the fact that three of the four games have gone 'over'. This has been a rarity for the Hawks as they went 'under' in five straight games against Orlando in their last series and going back further they were 13-3 to the 'under' in their previous 16 games. This is because of a defense that is underrated as Atlanta has held its opponents to fewer than 100 points in 16 of its last 20 games, including 10 games of fewer than 90 points. The Bulls defense meanwhile is one of the best in the NBA. After allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season. Chicago is allowing just 42.9 percent from the floor during the playoffs which is actually lower than its regular season percentage allowed. At home the Bulls defense is even better. After allowing 103 points in Game One, Chicago responded with just 73 points allowed in Game Two and after giving up 100 points in Game Four, I expect a very similar outcome here. The Bulls have tightened their games up following a big loss as they are 10-1 to the 'under' revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season including a perfect 7-0 to the 'under' revenging a double-digit road loss while Atlanta is 5-0 to the 'under' in its last five games after a double-digit win. The Hawks meanwhile are 20-8 to the 'under' in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 22-9 to the 'under' in its 31 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (733) Atlanta Hawks/(734) Chicago Bulls |
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05-08-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179 | Top | 88-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
We won with the 'under' in Game Two and we will once again go back to the 'under' for Game Four. Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number went up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it was enough to provide some value. The game snuck 'over' on Friday and while the number has not gone up much, any increase is on our side.
After scoring 103 points in Game One, Atlanta has not been as successful on offense as the Bulls defense has clamped down as expected. After shooting 51.8 percent in the opening game, the Hawks shot 33.8 percent in Game Two. Atlanta hit a respectable 47.1 percent on Game Three and while it was still held to 82 points, Chicago knows it must to a better job on the defensive end. Chicago is allowing under 43 percent shooting on the season and we will see a better effort here. The Bulls are shooting 43.5 percent in this series which is lower than their season average and that should continue against the Atlanta defense that has been solid the entire playoffs. The Hawks have been a solid defending team all season and they have allowed 100 points only once in nine playoff games and have allowed more than 90 points in only three other occasions. Atlanta is now 3-1 to the 'under' in its home playoff games and is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine home games overall. When the competition steps up, both teams have played more lower scoring games as Chicago is 24-13 to the 'under' this season when playing a team with a winning record while the Hawks are 30-15 to the 'under' when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Also, the Bulls are 22-9 to the 'under' after allowing 85 points or less this season while Atlanta is 30-17 to the 'under' after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. 10* Under (727) Chicago Bulls/(728) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-07-11 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 182.5 | Top | 81-97 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
Boston is against the wall now and after allowing the Heat to put up 99 and 102 points in the first two games, the way to get back into this series is with defense. The Celtics are allowing 91.3 ppg on the season so those two efforts were certainly not what they had in mind. Returning home is a start as the Celtics are giving up just 91.2 ppg on their home floor and in the two home meetings against the Heat, they gave up 80 and 82 points as both games stayed well below the number.
The first two meetings in this second round series have gone 'over' and because of that, we are getting some solid value. Game One had a closing total of 179.5 while Game Two had a closing total of 181.5 and for Game Three, the number has been pushed even further. We are seeing an increase of just a point but that still creates value and the change in venue adds to that. The Celtics and Heat went 'under' in three of the four regular season meetings which needs to be taken into consideration as well. Miami is 8-3 to the 'over' this season when it is an underdog but eight of those games came against the Western Conference. The offensive output is what we need to be concerned about and the Heats scored 97 points or fewer in eight of those games including all three within the conference. They were never underdogs against Boston which makes this the first instance of the season so the offensive inconsistency in these situations along with the low scoring in Boston help our cause here. I mentioned that the change of venue helps our value and that is due to Boston being 11-2 to the 'under' in home playoff games over the last two years including 2-0 to the 'under' this season. Also, the Celtics are 17-4-1 to the 'under' in their last 22 games as a favorite. Meanwhile the Heat are 22-13 to the 'under' after a win by 10 points or more this season including 9-3 to the 'under' in their last 12 games. Also, the 'under' is 4-0 in Miami's last four games after it scored 100 or more points in its previous game. 10* Under (723) Miami Heat/(724) Boston Celtics |
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05-04-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number has gone up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it is enough to provide some value in what should be a totally different game this time around. This takes the zig zag theory into play and both teams had similar results in their first round series that should make for a lower scoring game on Wednesday.
Game One was just the second of seven playoff games for the Hawks that went 'over' the total. This Game Two is set up the same way from their Game Two in the first round against Orlando. In that opener, the Hawks won while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. In the next game, Atlanta shot just 39.5 percent from the floor and scored only 82 points, 21 fewer than in its previous game. In Game One Monday, the Hawks shot 51.3 percent from the floor and I expect another huge dropoff here as well. The Chicago defense is one of the best units in the NBA and it was not on display in that first game. The Bulls allowed the Hawks to shoot over eight percent higher than what they normally allow and that is something that is taken personally. Chicago knows it has a better chance of winning a low scoring game than a shootout, especially at home, and the way to do that is hunker down on defense. The Bulls opening game against Indiana also went 'over' and a better effort on defense allowed Game Two to stay 'under'. The Bulls have been in similar situations this season and they have in fact responded with better defensive efforts. Chicago is 16-7 to the 'under' revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 43-30 to the 'under' after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Atlanta meanwhile is 19-8 to the 'under' in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points while also going 21-7 to the 'under' versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg this season. 10* Under (713) Atlanta Hawks/(714) Chicago Bulls |
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04-26-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 187 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
We have seen this line fluctuate quite a bit in all four games so far in this series. I won on the Bulls/Pacers 'under' in Game Two, which was set at 193 and a big reason for playing that was due to the jump from the last game which had a closing total of 188.
For Game Three, we saw the number go back down to where it was in Game One but playing the 'over' did not come through. The number went down further in Game Four and now again in Game Five so we will once again go 'over'. With the last three games being low scoring affairs, the value is on our side now as we are catching the lowest total of the series thus far. I also expect the Bulls to finally get their offense going as well. With a soft Indiana defense, the Bulls should have taken it to the Pacers but they shot just 38.9 percent in Game Three and 37.8 percent in Game Four while scoring 88 and 84 points respectively. This comes after scoring 104 and 96 points in the first two games at home and that is what we should see take place again. Despite losing both games on the road, the Pacers shot a respectable 44.1 percent from the floor in the two games combined in Chicago which is more than what the Bulls have allowed at home, which is 42 percent. For the Pacers to extend this series, they will need to keep that same offense going as they actually scored more points in this series on the road than at home which is a big surprise since they have averaged more at home during the regular season. The Pacers fall into a great situation based on last game. Play the 'over' involving a team after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game and where both teams scored 90 points or less in that game. This situation is 42-16 (72.4 percent) to the 'over' over the last five seasons. Also, Chicago is 26-13 to the 'over' coming off a loss as a favorite while the Pacers are 9-3 to the 'over' in their last 12 games when playing with two days rest and they are 4-1 to the 'over' this season with a total of less than 190. 10* Over (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Chicago Bulls |
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04-25-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 189 | Top | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I had the 'over' in this matchup on Saturday and a bad second half did us in, making it two straight 'unders' in this series. Even though the first game of this series went 'over' this number keeps dropping and it is the lowest so far in this entire series and the first time it has fallen below 190. It is actually the first time since January of 2009, a span of 12 meetings, that these teams have met with a total of fewer than 190. That represents value and we will take it on Monday.
The first game of this series went 'over' and while it did not go 'over' by much, that game was in San Antonio and figuring the first game in Memphis went 'under', that allows even more value to come into play. The two regular season meetings played in Memphis went 'over' and they went 'over' by quite a bit as they surpassed the number by a combined 27.5 points. With this being the playoffs, totals tend to be set lower and that is the case here as this number in down from those two previous games in Memphis. Looking at straight numbers alone, the Spurs are averaging 201.1 ppg in their games this season while the Grizzlies are averaging 197.1 ppg in their games this season and both of those averages are well above the O/U for tonight. When looking at home/road splits, those two averages are 200.8 ppg and 198.1 respectively so the venue switch does not hurt. These are two of those most efficient offenses in the league and the Spurs and Grizzlies are ranked fifth and sixth respectively in offensive shooting. Memphis falls into a fantastic situation for a high-scoring game. Play the 'over' involving home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points coming off a divisional win by three points or less while playing only their second game in five days. This situation is 35-8 (81.4 percent) since 1996. The 'over' is 11-3 in the last 14 games for the Spurs following a loss and the 'over' is 10-3 in their last 13 conference games while the 'over' is 8-1 in Memphis' last nine games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. 10* Over (511) San Antonio Spurs/(512) Memphis Grizzlies |