This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN/WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER for our CFB Wednesday Total Dominator. The MAC continues its weeknight run on Wednesday with rivals Central and Western squaring off with the loser out of the MAC West race. We are expecting a grind it out type of game which is something this series has not seen over the years. The Broncos will be without quarterback Jon Wassink who broke his collarbone last game and they will be starting Reece Goddard who has thrown three career passes. To say they will be about ball control is an understatement as we will see a heavy dose of the run, even more than usual which burns clock. Western has rushed for 2,018 yards as a team, led by Jarvion Franklin's 80.2 ypg and seven total touchdowns. The Chippewas are coming off a 56-9 victory at Ball St. during which everything seemed to fall their way as they put up 256 yards rushing, a season high, and the defense held the Cardinals to 208 total yards, the season low for a Chippewas opponent. That defense will have to step up again and because of the quarterback change, they will have a better idea of what is coming. Western Michigan is allowing 385.6 ypg on defense with a lot of those yards coming early in the season. The Broncos have allowed an average of 15.8 ppg over their last five games in regulation as we threw out the overtime points in that crazy Buffalo game and we can expect this defense to come up strong against an inconsistent Central Michigan offense. While the Chippewas put up 56 points last week, they averaged 15 ppg in their previous five games. Central Michigan has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games against winning teams while the under is 5-1 in the Broncos last six games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (305) Central Michigan Chippewas/(306) Western Michigan Broncos

The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

After a crazy three-overtime game against Texas St. to open the season where 110 points were scored, Ohio has seen its last seven games stay under the total. A lot of that has had to do with the opposition and the matchups involved but that changes tonight. The defense has allowed 21 points or less four times but one of those came against Gardner Webb of the FCS while the other three came against offenses that are ranked No. 127, No. 117 and No. 104 in total offense and No. 123, No. 114 and No. 111 in scoring offense. Toledo is a little better than those squads as the Rockets are No. 7 in the nation in total offense and no. 13 in scoring offense. Toledo tied a season low with 31 points scored against Central Michigan last week and while its own defense has been pretty solid, it too has faced some weak offenses along the way. Throw away the three points allowed against Maine of the FCS and the Rockets have given up an average of 25.7 ppg. Two of the best defensive efforts came against Arkansas St. and Fresno St. and they are ranked No. 1245 and No. 121 respectively in scoring offense. Going back, Toledo is 12-1 to the over after having won four of its last five games while the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. These teams have not met since 2010 which is not a good thing for the coaching staff to try and prepare defenses which gives the offense on both sides a clear advantage. 10* Over (103) Ohio Bobcats/(104) Toledo Rockets

While we are going contrarian in the first total, we are going contrarian in this total as well. Because of these runs, this is where the value comes into play as linesmakers have to set the numbers based on those runs as the public is all over big streaks. Pittsburgh opened the season with a low scoring game against Villanova of the FCS but since then, the Panthers have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has scored at least 36 points in every one of those games but the Panthers have faced off against some pathetic defenses along the way. The best stop unit they have faced was against Georgia Tech which is ranked No. 27 in total defense. The other five teams are ranked No. 53, No. 104, No. 61, No. 113 and No. 108. Virginia Tech comes into this game ranked No. 11 in total defense and no. 16 in scoring defense so Pittsburgh is going to be tested for sure. Pittsburgh relies heavily on the ground game and Virginia Tech is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping the run as the Hokies allow 103.6 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The Virginia Tech offense has played above average this season but it is skewed a bit based on the competition and venue. The Hokies have played only two road games and managed to score just 17 points against an awful Syracuse defense and 34 points against an average North Carolina defense in hurricane conditions. The Hokies have gone under in six straight ACC road games while the Panthers are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a bye week. 10* Under (107) Virginia Tech Hokies/(108) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES/LSU TIGERS OVER for our Saturday Totals Dominator. This could be considered a contrarian totals play based on the fact that LSU has stayed under the total in each of its first five games this season and that is certainly part of it but additionally, the matchup calls for a quick paced game. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the country in total offense with 531 ypg while averaging 318.7 passing ypg and 40.2 ppg. There were reports early in the week that Southern Mississippi senior quarterback Nick Mullens was uncertain about this game but he has been upgraded to probable so the offense should not miss a beat. The Tigers might have turned a corner in the first game under interim coach Ed Orgeron with 634 yards, a school record in SEC play, in a 42-7 win over Missouri. Both defenses are ranked pretty high as Southern Mississippi is No 16 while LSU is No. 21 but The Golden Eagles have played a very easy schedule while the Tigers have played no one with a pulse on offense. Southern Mississippi defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro said the LSU offense may throw a few new wrinkles at them while offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said he figures to see a base Tigers defense. LSU is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game while the over is 5-2 in the Golden Eagles last seven non-conference games. 10* Over (151) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(152) LSU Tigers

Two of the Sun Belt Conference favorites square off on Wednesday in what looks to be a very high scoring game. Georgia Southern is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over South Alabama and UL-Monroe and both of those were very low scoring contests that stayed under the total by 24.5 points and 13 points respectively. Those came against two of the lowest scoring offenses in the country and while Arkansas St. has struggled on offense, it has gotten progressively better. The Red Wolves are 0-4 including an embarrassing loss last time out against Central Arkansas. This is their conference opener and while the offense has the ability to put up a good number of points, their defense has been real troublesome as they are allowing 36 ppg, which is ranked No. 107 in the country. Arkansas St. has struggled against the run especially and that is not a good sign against a powerful Eagles rushing attack. This is the lowest total Georgia Southern has seen this season and both teams have seen three of their four games stay under the number which sets up good value. We play the over where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving teams that winless on the season and coming off a home loss. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games against teams average 4.75 or more ypc while under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 14-1 to the over against conference opponents. 10* Over (301) Georgia Southern Eagles/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange

The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers

This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal

Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles

This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies

This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears

12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen

Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd

This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos

This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies

This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls

Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons

We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears

San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack

It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls

While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks

The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels

This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators

Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs

Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers

When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets

The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars

This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears

We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers

Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores

Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies

We played on Syracuse and Virginia to go under the total last Saturday and it was one of the worst total beats you will see. It went over the total by 31 points which may not seem like a bad beat at all but consider the fact that after scoreless first quarter, 35 fourth quarter points were scored including two defensive touchdowns. Then the game was sent into overtime on a field goal as time expired and then 34 overtime points were scored. That made it six straight games that have gone over the total to start the season after closing last season with six straight unders. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a high scoring game against Georgia Tech which is also playing into this total. The number this week is slightly higher than it was last week despite playing a Syracuse offense that is ranked 110th in the nation in total offense compared to the Yellow Jackets being ranked 61st in total offense. Georgia Tech does have a better defense but not much as it is ranked 52nd compared to 69th for Syracuse. This has been a very low scoring series of late, averaging 32.3 ppg with all three of those staying well below the total. Going back, Syracuse is 25-11 to the under in its last 36 games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Panthers last seven games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (325) Pittsburgh Panthers/(326) Syracuse Orange

Georgia last lost two straight games to fall from out of playoff consideration and this feels like the game that the offense is going to explode. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.3 ppg on the season while putting up 451.3 ypg and with the absence of running back Nick Chubb, we should see the Bulldogs air the ball out more. Georgia now is seeing its smallest total of the season and one that is close to two touchdowns lower than that of last week. Part of that is due to the opponent as Missouri has struggled on offense in half of its games but the potential is there against a defense that has been gashed the last two games. The total is low as expected because of the inconsistent offense with another reason being the Tigers going under the total in all six of their games this season. Quarterback Maty Mauk will not be in uniform against and freshman Drew Lock will be making his third start which is typically the time quarterbacks start becoming more comfortable. His first start came against South Carolina and Georgia's defense is more in line with the Gamecocks defense as opposed to Florida who he faced last week and struggled. The Gatos defense is ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Missouri falls into a great situation for a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 coming off three or more consecutive unders, and averaging between 16.5 and 21 ppg going up against teams averaging 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 32-10 (76.2 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (165) Missouri Tigers/(166) Georgia Bulldogs

Appalachian St. is coming off its first conference win over Georgia St. as it hung 37 points on the Panthers as the offense remains explosive. The Mountaineers played a game against Clemson and its 13th ranked defense so take that game out and they are averaging 41.5 ppg and surpassing that number this week should be no issue. They face a ULM defense that is allowing 412.8 ypg and 34 ppg, 87th and 101st in the nation respectively so there will once again be little resistance. Surprisingly, Appalachian St. has stayed under the total in all five of its games but the matchups have had a lot to do with that and this one screams over. The Warhawks offense has been pretty solid against like opposition as take out games against Georgia and Alabama and they are averaging 34 ppg in their other three games. They will be facing a tough defense so it is not going to be easy for ULM but playing at home certainly helps and we are not asking them to even come close to that 34 ppg average as most of the points will be coming from the other side. The Warhawks have gone under the total in three of their last four which is also because of matchups. This week, the Mountaineers are seeing their lowest posted total and ULM is seeing its second lowest. The over is 28-13-1 in the Warhawks last 42 games against teams with a winning record including a 4-0 over run in their four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This one should fly over the number. 10* Over (185) Appalachian St. Mountaineers/(186) ULM Warhawks

Virginia opened the season with an under against UCLA with the closing total being 53. Since then, the Cavaliers have had no games go under the total and all of those closed in the 40's. On the other side, Syracuse is a perfect 5-0 to the over on the season and like Virginia, all of those totals closed in the 40's. Because of the high scoring games (Syracuse is averaging 55.6 ppg and Virginia is averaging 58 ppg) the total this week is the highest both teams have seen. Granted the total is still below what each team is averaging in its games but because the number is way above what they are accustomed with, the value is big. The defenses of both sides are not great but the offenses do not have much going for them and will still find it tough going. Syracuse is 108th in total offense while Virginia is 99th in total offense and typically when a poor offense goes up against a poor defense, the latter succeeds more the majority of the time. Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester has struggled to establish the run early in the last couple games, but don't expect him to abandon course with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback. Running back Jordan Fredericks should test a Virginia defense that's allowed more than 4.5 ypc this season and of course, more running the better as it eats more clock. Syracuse is 31-12 to the under in its last 43 games after being outgained by 17 or more total yards in its previous game while Virginia has gone 8-1-1 to the under in its last 10 ACC games. 10* Under (137) Syracuse Orange/(138) Virginia Cavaliers

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is a situation where both teams have seen a huge majority of their games go under the number. Colorado is coming off its third straight under and fourth in fifth games as 65 points were scored against Oregon but that was still not enough to push it over. In five games, the posted closing total wax in the 60's while the other was at 56.5 so the Buffaloes are facing their lowest total of the season. Colorado is ranked 38th in total offense so it has the ability to move the ball. Arizona St. meanwhile has seen all five of its games stay below the number which is also part of the reason of the huge overadjustment this week. Both offense and defense have been up and down and overall, the Sun Devils are ranked 44th in total offense and 60th in total defense. All five of the Sun Devils games have had closing totals in the 60's so there is huge value in their side of this total as well. While the teams are a combined 9-1 to the under, that would go to 5-5 had the total be what they are using this week. Colorado is 11-3 to the over in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record and 21-5 to the over in its last 26 games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games while Arizona St. is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two out of its last three games. Over (369) Colorado Buffaloes/(370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is the biggest contrarian situation of all three and we are catching an unheard of number in the college game. Michigan and Northwestern bring in two of the best defenses in the country as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense while the Wildcats are ranked 5th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Those are obviously some incredible rankings but we have to take a look at the opposition. Of the nine FBS teams that they have faced, the total offense rankings are 112th, 64th, 63rd, 31st, 114th, 81st, 87th, 111th and 76th. So the schedules have been very favorable. Because of the stout defenses, both teams have stayed below the number in all five of their games and because of that, we are getting great value on this adjusted total. Rarely do you see a college game with an over/under in the mid-30's but that is the case here. While the defenses could still control the game, it will not take a lot for this one to go over. Michigan has a great situation on its side to go high as we play the over involving teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, Northwestern is 17-6 to the over in its last 23 games against teams who allow 14 or fewer ppg. Over (373) Northwestern Wildcats/(374) Michigan Wolverines

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. Toledo is expected to win the MAC West behind an offense that averaged close to 500 ypg and 36.6 ppg a season ago. While only five starters are back, the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver are three of those. The Rockets are averaging 26.8 ppg which is a significant decline but they have scored 30 or more points two times. Because of the offense not hitting its potential and a defense that has overachieved, Toledo has gone under the total in all four games. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off a low scoring game against Miami Ohio which was its second under in four games. The total against the RedHawks closed at 43 and we are seeing a very light increase here despite playing an offense that is significantly better. As for Toledo, this is the lowest over/under it has seen this season by over 10 points so it is a massive overadjustment. It should be noted that Kent St.'s two best defensive efforts came against teams ranked 105th and 112th in total offense and 121st and 126th in scoring offense. The over is 5-1 in the Golden Flashes last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 20-7 in Toledo's last 27 home games when playing against a team with a losing record and the over is 15-3 in its last 18 home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game. Over (333) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(334) Toledo Rockets

Both Washington and USC are coming off an under in their last games which is providing some value heading into this one. The Huskies have gone under the total in three of four games with the lone game going over by just 2.5 points while USC is 2-2 with totals with one of those games going over by just 1.5 points. The USC defense is not as good as it may look as far as points allowed, which sits at 17.5 ppg. The Trojans are allowing 410 ypg on the season which is 90th in the country and that includes holding Idaho to 311 total yards. In the last game against Arizona St., USC allowed just 14 points but gave up 454 total yards and was the beneficiary of four Sun Devils turnovers. Washington meanwhile is allowing just 15.8 ppg and 321 ypg which is 17th and 29th in the nation but those numbers and rankings are skewed because of a game against Sacramento St. of the FCS where they pitched a shutout and gave up 212 total yards. Take that game out of the equation and the numbers are much more average. Washington allowed 481 yards to California in its last game and while that offense is great, the Trojans offense is even better. The Trojans fall into a solid situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 63-28 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 18-5 to the over in its last 23 road games teams averaging 37 or more ppg while USC is 12-2 to the over in its last 14 home games after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. 10* Over (305) Washington Huskies/(306)USC Trojans

We are basing this on contrarian theory as we have seen some low scoring games between these two teams. Connecticut has seen all four of its games go under the total as the offense has really struggled to move the ball and to score as the Huskies are ranked 120th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Something says they get it going this week however as BYU has allowed at least 24 points in each game. The Cougars have gone under in each of their last two games as the offense is coming off a pair of bad efforts. They will be facing another tough defense but returning home will make a big difference as they tallied 35 points in their lone home game this season against Boise St. and the Broncos have a better defense than Connecticut. BYU is ranked 107th in total offense as the running game has held it back but it is tied for first in the nation in redzone offense. These teams played last season and while that game stayed below the total, it closed over a touchdown higher than what the number is this year. The Cougars have not seen a total this low since 2012 which represents a big overreaction to what has transpired early in the season. 10* Over (109) Connecticut Huskies/(110) BYU Cougars

We played on Cincinnati last week as it lost but was able to cover in its shootout with Memphis. That was the fourth straight game to go over the total for the Bearcats and because of that, we are seeing a ridiculously high number this week. Miami meanwhile has gone over the total in two of three games including the last two with the lone game staying under being a game against FCS Bethune Cookman. This is the highest total the Hurricanes have seen this season so we are definitely getting value going the other way. Both offenses have been leading the way but the defenses should be able to have success here. Cincinnati had to tangle with one of the best offenses in the nation last week and it takes a step down here. Miami meanwhile is ranked 27th in total defense while sitting 13th in passing efficiency defense. The Bearcats will be without Gunner Kiel at quarterback after suffering a scary head injury last week and while backup Hayden Moore was sensational, there will be a lot more resistance here. Miami 6-0 to the under in its last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games over the last three seasons while Cincinnati is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* Under (103) Miami Hurricanes/(104) Cincinnati Bearcats

Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators

Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats

This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats

BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers

Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons

It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights

Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons

We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys

It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos

The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls