**9** MAC TOTALS DOMINATOR ***93% ANGLE*** The Central Michigan has been a machine this season as it is averaging 34.2 ppg but we do need to put an asterisk next to that average. The Chippewas have played some very poor defenses along the way and they got a very good draw in going 8-0 in the MAC. Of those eight games, they faced six defenses ranked 64th or worst in the nation and they took advantage. One of three other two games came against Buffalo, ranked 41st in the country and Central Michigan managed only 20 points. The other came in the last game against Northern Illinois, ranked 27th and the Chippewas did manage 45 points but that game came on their home field on Senior Day. The points scored on the season came against defenses allowing an average of 29.1 ppg and that is absolutely horrible competition. Ohio comes in allowing 21.4 ppg against teams averaging 23.7 ppg on offense so it has played above average and the defense is ranked 51st in the nation. The Bobcats allowed only three opponents to top 400 total yards. The Bobcats play physical, a reason they lead the MAC with a +14 turnover ratio and they have the best pass defense in the conference, intercepting 19 passes. It is not going to be as easy for Central Michigan on offense as people may be thinking. The easy schedule also led to Central Michigan leading the MAC in scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 ppg on the season. That came against teams averaging 23.1 ppg so it was still definitely above average. Ohio has picked things up on offense over its last three games as it has averaged 33.3 ppg over that span and the last two games were most impressive as the Bobcats scored 38 and 35 points against Northern Illinois and Temple respectively. Those two defenses are 27th and 35th in the nation but it needs to be pointed out that those two games came at home and that is a big difference. Ohio averaged only 22 ppg in its last three road games. This is the highest total Ohio has seen since facing Akron back on October 10th which was a similar number and that game finished with 26 points scored. The

7* New Years Day ROSE BOWL *Total Winner* This total opened anywhere between 45 and 46.5 and it is remaining steady which is surprising considering two of the best defenses will be on display in Pasadena. The output of the offenses is what is keeping this number steady but in a game such as this, it is the stop units that take center stage. Penn St. brings in a quick strike and powerful offense as it scored 45 or more points seven times but now that offense gets put to the test. The Nittany Lions struggled against the tougher defenses it played, namely Ohio St. and Iowa and even those two teams cannot compare to what the Trojans accomplished this season. USC allowed an NCAA best 7.8 ppg and 206.1 ypg and it allowed seven points or fewer eight times and three points or fewer six times. This is considered one of the best defenses we have ever seen. The Nittany Lions were 5th in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense, yielding 263.9 ypg and 12.4 ppg respectively. They held six teams to 10 points or fewer and did not allow more than 24 points in any game this season. USC put up good numbers on offense but the Pac Ten has very few good defenses and this unit is too inconsistent to expect a high output. Penn St. is 13-4 to the

8* New Years Eve 83.3% TOTAL DOMINATOR The Armed Forces Bowl is one of those rare occurrences where we see a second meeting between the teams. Air Force was supposed to play at Roberts Stadium back in September but due to the hurricane that hit Houston, the game was moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Falcons jumped ahead early and had to hold off a big Houston rally top pull off the upset. We saw 59 points and 914 yards of offense in that first meeting and both totals will be surpassed here. Houston relies on its offense to outscore the opposition as its defense has been worthless this year. The Falcons defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and it will be exposed again as Houston had 534 yards in the first meeting and has scored 42 points or more in four straight games, averaging 49 ppg over that span. Houston has allowed 37 points or more in four of its last six games and Air Force has the ability to score points especially against shoddy stop units. We have yet to see this system cash in as both the Motor City Bowl and Alamo Bowl came in below the number. History shows a lot of points in these early bowl games and that will be the case again here. Play the over with neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in minor bowl games that are played in December. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992 with the average points being scored at 75.6 ppg. This was a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. 8* Over Air Force Falcons/Houston Cougars

8* Alamo Bowl TOTAL DOMINATOR **75% YTD** This is a very high total but we should see nothing short of a shootout here. Northwestern had it best season since 1996 and that was largely in part due to a pretty solid defense. However, it has not seen anything like it will see tonight. Missouri once against started strong and faltered at the end, losing four of its final eight games. The defense was to blame as it gave up 46.5 ppg in those four setbacks including a season high 62 points put up by Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship.

Northwestern finished 51st in the nation in total defense which was very below average considering the conference teams it played. Of its eight Big Ten games, only one came against an offense that finished better than 51st in total offense and those eight teams averaged an offensive ranking of just 68th. The Wildcats now face a Missouri offense that finished 6th in the country overall as well as 6th in scoring offense. The Tigers toppled 50 points six times and 40 points eight times.

As good as the Missouri offense was, the defense made up for it. The Tigers finished 99th in total defense and 74th in scoring defense. They allowed 17 points or fewer four times but allowed 28 or more points six times including five of their final eight games. The three times over that span that they did not allow at least four touchdowns came against Colorado, Iowa St. and Kansas St., ranked 99th, 63rd and 19th respectively in scoring offense.

Northwestern limped home with its offense, averaging just 20.2 ppg in its final five games. This came after it averaged 27.6 ppg though its first seven games when its total offense was ranked 44th in the nation. This tells us that the potential is there. It is no surprise that the offense cooled when running back Tyrell Sutton was out with a wrist injury but he is probable for tonight

***9*** Bowl Total of the Month *9-2 Run* Central Michigan had a very solid season but it failed to win the MAC, or even its division, so it was definitely a disappointment. An 8-4 record is nothing to sneeze at but quite honestly, it isn

7* Poinsettia Bowl 76.5% TOTAL DOMINATOR I have this total projected in the high 30

**9** NCAA Total of the Year (86.7% YTD)** When looking at totals, I look at yards both gained and allowed and yards per point rather than just points scored and allowed. In this case, the yardage numbers are through the roof. The combined total of Oklahoma and Texas Tech is 1,813 yards on average per game both gained and allowed. The average across the country is in the vicinity of a low of 1,200 yards with an average of 1,451. The 350 difference shows how potent these teams are on offense since that is where the majority of yards come from (1,116.1 ypg).

The adjustment made for this totals is not nearly enough. Oklahoma has seen totals in the 70

**7** NCAA Total of the Week (90.9% YTD)** This is always one of the more anticipated games in the SEC every year and this season is no exception. This winner of this contest has full control in the SEC East and will likely head to the SEC Championship game in December. What does that mean here? We should see a game with not many chances being taken and both teams looking to control the ball and keep the opposing offenses off the field. We catch some great value in this total based on recent games and last season

**5** Tuesday Special Totals BEST BET** Last week, Ohio and Temple easily stayed under the posted number and that number closed at 40. Now the Bobcats have a total of 50 this Tuesday which seems like way to big of a jump for a team that is struggling badly on offense. Ohio scored just 10 points against the Owls and it is averaging just 18 ppg in its seven games against other FBS teams. The Bobcats are 68th in the country in total offense and things are getting worse as another star on offense, this time tight end Andrew Mooney, was lost for the season.

Buffalo has not been much better on offense as it has averaged 363.6 ypg on the season which is 65th in the nation. The Bulls are averaging 27 ppg on the season which is fairly decent but most of that success has come at home. They are averaging 31.8 ppg in four games in Buffalo but just 20.9 ppg in three road games and all three of those games were their three lowest overall this season. The Bulls have been outgained in each of their last four games and that is because the offense has averaged just 316 ypg.

The Buffalo running game has been a mess as it has averaged just 80 ypg on the road, 88.3 ypg over its last three games no thanks to a 41-yard effort last time out against Army. That rushing offense should get a boost this week as starting tailback James Starks is listed as probable after missing that Army game. He is second in the MAC in rushing and while getting a star back on offense may not be a good thing normally, it helps the running game meaning more production on the ground meaning more time off the clock.

It is strength against strength as Buffalo uses a strong passing attack but the Bobcats are solid in that area on defense and the nod goes to the defense at home. Ohio is 26th in passing defense and 42nd in passing efficiency defense. Overall, Ohio's defense is currently ranked second in the MAC in total yards allowed and only three teams in the conference have given up fewer touchdowns. This team allowed 26 points to Ohio St. and 16 points to Northwestern, both very impressive efforts.

On the other side, the Bulls are a very below average 90th in total defense including 70th in rushing defense and 97th in passing efficiency defense. Normally this would be a sign to look the other way but Ohio does not have an offense that can take advantage. The Bobcats' redzone offense ranks last in the MAC, scoring on only 69.2 percent of their scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line. They have a conference-low nine touchdowns in the redzone as well. We see a low scoring affair on Tuesday. 5* Under Buffalo Bulls/Ohio Bobcats

**5** Tuesday Total Best Bet (85.7% YTD)** Points will be at a premium tonight as both Ohio and Temple have been pretty offensively challenged. Ohio has played the majority of its games on the road and has averaged only 17.6 ppg while Temple, it only two home games, has averaged 6.0 ppg. The other side of the ball is where the strengths are. Defensively the Owls are fifth overall in the MAC in total defense, giving up 363.7 ypg and are third in scoring defense, giving up only 19.3 ppg overall. Ohio isn

**5** Friday Totals BEST BET (83.3% YTD)** This total has dropped 24 points from last season (75.5 to 51.5) and while that may seem severe, it is for good reason. Neither team is as explosive as years past when the average score was 78.3 ppg the past six meetings. While both teams have shown the ability to put points on the board, neither has been consistent enough, especially against FBS teams. Hawaii is averaging 17.2 ppg in five FBS games while Boise St. is averaging 29.8 ppg in its four FBS games.

The Boise St. offense is still a potent attack but it is not where it was a season ago. Currently the Broncos are averaging 432 ypg in total offense which is good for 22nd in the nation. However take out the 582 yards gained against FCS team Idaho St. and the average drops to 394.5 ypg which would put them at 42nd in the country. This is down from 467.4 ypg last season which was 12th in the nation. Only five starters returned from last season and it is definitely showing.

Hawaii is no where near the same team offensively from last season for obvious reasons. The Warriors are 85th in the country in total offense and are seventh in the WAC with 331.5 ypg. Replacing Colt Brennan is Inoke Funaki, a dual-threat quarterback who lacks the size, arm strength and quick decisions of a traditional run-and-shoot quarterback. The offense has been tweaked to fit his abilities and that means a lot of running and short passes to try and keep the offense moving.

Both defenses are above average to combat the opposition

**3** NCAA Total of the Month Shootout** Texas Tech gets all of the press about its high powered offense and rightfully so. Kansas St. however has been moving the ball as well as it is ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense. Granted one of those games came against Montana St. but the Wildcats put up 481 yards in that game so that output does not skew the overall average. They put up 471 yards against North Texas and 470 yards against UL-Lafayette and while neither of those defenses are very good, the Red Raiders defense is 61st against a schedule ranked 129th.

The key for the Wildcats is balance and that will keep the Red Raiders on their heels. Quarterback Josh Freeman is leading the team with 276.2 passing ypg and has thrown 11 touchdowns. Freeman also has accounted for six of the team's 10 rushing scores. He can beat you in many ways and the Red Raiders have struggled against offenses like this in the past including this season. They allowed only 19 points against the Nevada spread offense but it racked up 488 total yards so those 19 points are not a good indication.

The Wildcats used to be one of the toughest defenses in not only the conference but also in the country. Defensively, Kansas St. is allowing 370.5 ypg of total offense and 206.0 ypg on the ground. The run defense is raked next-to-last in the Big 12, and it has allowed at least 300 yards in the last two games against Louisville and UL-Lafayette. Opponents are averaging 22.8 ppg which is good but that jumps to 37.5 ppg over the last two games which is far from good. Now it much try and stop this offense and it won

**79% Friday TV **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** I was expecting a total in the mid-forties for this game and we catch a much higher number than that here. The under was the play in the in the anticipated number so this makes it even stronger. I like both defenses in this matchup and not just because of that prior numbers they have put up. Marshall has one bad game against Wisconsin but other than that it has been solid and the same goes for Cincinnati sans the Oklahoma game. The big reason here is because of the opposing quarterbacks.

Marshall redshirt freshman quarterback Mark Cann is coming off a poor performance against West Virginia. For the season, Cann has completed 76-150 passes for 943 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions, his first as the Thundering Herd's starting quarterback however his last effort was his worst. He connected on just 15-36 passes for 119 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in West Virginia's 27-3 win. The Mountaineers also sacked him once and hurried him countless other times.

Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike had a big game against Akron, completing 23-of-34 pass attempts for 320 yards and a pair of scores. However, he was hurt in the fourth quarter and is expected to miss at least three weeks. Pike was filling in for Dustin Grutza, who opened the season as the starter but he went down and that means redshirt freshman Zach Collaros is now the starter. He has thrown only four college passes, all last week, completing one for only two yards.

This type of game means a lot of running is going to be involved based on the lack of experience being center on both sides. Marshall held a very strong Memphis offense to just 16 points and 10 points to Illinois St. in its two home games. The Bearcats allowed only 15 points to Akron last time out in their other road game besides Oklahoma. Take that game away as well as the Thundering Herd

**2.5** NCAA Total of the Week (4-0 YTD)** We should be some big offensive numbers on Wednesday between these two teams. Boise St. is up to its old tricks of putting together big offense as it is averaging 448.7 ypg which is good for 19th in the nation. The Broncos are averaging 35.3 ppg which is 25th in the country. This offense is actually down from last season but that is because of the schedule that has gotten harder each week. It takes a step down in the WAC opener and that should enable the offense to become even more potent.

Louisiana Tech comes in with a 2-1 record and while the defense has been decent, it will have problems against the Broncos. Louisiana Tech has allowed just six offensive touchdowns this season. Kansas was inside the redzone nine times and came away with just three touchdowns and three field goals. That may sound good but the Bulldogs allowed 412 passing yards which is not a promising statistic if they hope to slow down Boise St.

**84% **2.5** NCAA Total of the Week** Houston enters this game off a tough loss to Colorado St. in a game it really should have won. The Cougars lost despite outgaining the Rams 473-422 but they were hurt by four turnovers including three in their last five possessions. It was another big offensive effort that did no good with a second straight three-point setback. The big yards are nothing new as Houston is 8th in the country in total offense, averaging 526.3 ypg on the season through four games. Quarterback Case Keenum is first in the country in total offense

East Carolina is a solid 31st in the country in total defense, yielding 297.5 ypg. The problem has been that the defense has allowed more yards each games, culminating with 384 yards allowed last Saturday to NC State. The Wolfpack are 109th in the nation in total offense and prior to that last effort, had put up 138 yards and 288 yards in their other two games against FCS teams. It is no coincidence that star linebacker Quentin Cotton missed the last game and it out for the season.

As good as the Cougars offense is, the defense has been horrible and that is a big factor for the 1-3 start to the season. Houston is 107th in total defense, allowing 438.3 ypg and it has been even worse over the last three games as the unit has given up an average of 500.3 ypg. The rushing defense is 115th and while the passing defense is 63rd in the country, the passing efficiency defense is 97th. That last ranking is important as efficiency is much more telling that raw yardage allowed.

The East Carolina offense is not going to scare anyone as it is 66th in the country in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. The one big positive has been consistency as the Pirates have scored 27, 24, 28 and 24 points in their four games. Those four games have come against teams that average out at 52nd in the country in scoring defense so the opposition has definitely been above average. This is the weakest defense they will have faced thus far so we can expect to see more yards and more points this week.

These teams put up 72 points in last year

**71.2% Friday Night Lights **2** Total** Connecticut has been solid on defense again this season but the level of competition and other factors have helped out with that. The Huskies opened the season with a win against Hofstra, allowing just 170 total yards, so that skews things right away. Next up was a 12-9 win at Temple but that game was played in miserable weather which was very beneficial to both defenses. Connecticut then took out Virginia last Saturday but the Cavaliers have a weak offense again after finishing 101st in total offense a season ago.

Baylor meanwhile seems to be getting its offense in gear at the right time. The Bears struggled in their first game with the new system against Wake Forest but the last two weeks have shown a dramatic increase in production. They put up 537 total yards against Northwestern St. and while the Demons hardly are a good team, the offense needed that to get moving. Last Friday against Washington St., Baylor racked up 555 total yards so the offense comes in with a lot of confidence.

Baylor

**Thursday NCAA **2.5** TOP PLAY Total** At first glance, Rutgers looks like the play here following a horrible offensive showing against Fresno St. in the opener. However, after looking through the gamebook, the offense was not as bad as the seven points scored indicates. The Scarlet Knights put up a very solid 369 total yards but were hurt by two missed field goals and two failed fourth down conversation attempts, one coming from the Fresno St. three-yard line. There should have been more points on the board.

The average yd/pt in college football last season was around 14 and the Scarlet Knights were right around that number at 14.027. Rutgers had a horrendous 52.7 yd/pt in that first game and you know it won