This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Dallas is coming off a fortunate win over Pittsburgh as it had to rally twice in the fourth quarter, culminating with a winning touchdown with just 20 seconds remaining. To their credit, the Cowboys outgained the Steelers 445-226 but the offense sputtered in the redzone and they committed three turnovers. They improved to 3-0 on the road but remain winless at home at 0-2 with losses coming against the Saints and Ravens. They have a much more difficult matchup this week as their defense will not be facing inept rushing and passing offenses. Dallas will again be without linebacker Micah Parsons and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence which is not ideal going up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The secondary is also banged up but cornerback Daron Bland is set to return. Detroit is coming off its bye week following a win over Seattle where it improved to 3-1 on the season. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball as Detroit is No. 12 in Defensive EPA which is certainly far from horrible and they are equally good against the run and pass so it is not a concern for us. The Lions will bring pressure against a bad offensive line and while Dak Prescott has the ability to put up big numbers like he did last week, his lack of execution is the downfall. Dallas will have the emotional edge of being back home but they are at a disadvantage in all other aspects. 10* (283) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chargers opened the season 2-0 although those wins were against Las Vegas and Carolina and they then dropped their next two games at Pittsburgh and at home against Kansas City. The bye week came at the best time with a chance to work on the offense that has fallen to No. 24 in Offensive EPA and give quarterback Justin Herbert an extra week to rest his ankle. He has not looked good in the new Jim Harbaugh offense but some of the issues can be attributed to the offensive line that has been banged up. They were without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against the Chiefs but both practiced this week and should be able to return. The Chargers are tied with Minnesota at No. 1 in Defensive EPA and have an excellent matchup in this spot. Denver has surprisingly won three straight games after opening the season 0-2. The Broncos rolled over an unfocused Tampa Bay team and should have lost against the Jets which missed a game winning field goal late while taking out an injury plagued Raiders team last week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had his struggles and the Broncos come in tied for No. 27 in Offensive Passing EPA which puts him in another tough situation. Additionally, the Broncos will be without center Luke Wattenberg and tackle Alex Palczewski which is bad news against the Los Angeles defense. The Chargers defense was short-handed against Kansas City as well with safety Dewin James serving a one game suspension and linebacker Joey Bosa out with a hip injury but they will return this week. 10* (277) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville which snapped a two-game winning streak but did get the cover based on the closing line to make it three straight winners against the number. The challenge will be more difficult this week however. Indianapolis hopes to get quarterback Anthony Richardson back but we still do not know if he will go as he will be a gametime decision which means Joe Flacco could get his second straight start after having a monster game against the Jaguars. Now the Colts go from playing the No. 32 ranked team in Defensive EPA to the No. 6 ranked team in Defensive EPA and the Titans lead the league in total defense and passing defense. Indianapolis will be without running back Jonathan Taylor so a second straight week. Tennessee is coming off its bye week following its first win of the season at Miami 31-12. While the Titans are just 1-3, they have won the stats in three games, outgaining the Bears and the Jets in their first two games. This is mostly in part to its stout defense as the offense does remain a concern. There are injury issues at quarterback here as well with Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury which could force a Mason Rudolph start. Rudolph did not put up huge numbers against the Dolphins but he managed the game well and protected the football and whichever quarterback gets the nod, they will be facing a Colts defense that made Trevor Lawrence look like an All Pro and one that is ranked No. 28 in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is coming off a pair of home wins including a huge 23-20 victory last week against Buffalo as it kicked a 59-yard field goal as time expired. The Texans are now 4-1 on the season but they are one of the worst winning teams in the league as they come in Ranked No. 17 in Net EPA. The defense has been slightly better than the offense, No. 17 compared to No. 20 but clearly there is no dominant strength on either side. Both sides are dinged up with the offensive line likely to be down at least one starter and running back Joe Mixon is still hobbled with an ankle injury. The Texans are tied for No. 11 in Defensive Passing EPA but the bad news is that they will be without two starters in the secondary as safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter have been ruled out. The Patriots look to present a good matchup for Houston as their offense is tied for No. 27 in Offensive EPA and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out with a foot injury. What makes this the spot to play on New England as it is making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye making his first start. Houston will have had a tough time game planning for him with nothing to look at and while Maye will likely see a lot of pressure, he has the scrambling ability to counter that. We are getting the line movement we were looking for even though it has gone against us, coming down to 6.5 points in some places but this is with 84 percent of the money coming in on the Texans, giving us the RLM. 10* (270) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This could be considered a make or break game for both teams as Cleveland cannot afford to fall to 1-5 while the Eagles will fall under .500 with a loss. This being said, the Eagles have significant edges all over the place which is a reason this line steamed up early in the week. Philadelphia is coming off a loss at Tampa Bay in its last game but injuries played a big factor in that with receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith sidelined along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. All three will be back on the field following their bye week and this will be the first home game for Philadelphia in a month. The offense will have a chance to finally break out even though they are still tied for No. 9 in Offensive EPA despite the recent scoring struggles and injuries. While the Eagles are back home, the Browns are playing their third straight road game with the first two being disastrous against the Raiders and Commanders. Cleveland is now 1-4 with the lone win coming against Jacksonville that easily could have been a loss. The Browns relied on their top ranked defense last season but they are just No. 14 in Defensive EPA this year and it is clear that Myles Garrett is not right and this is a game where Jalen Hurts can thrive. The bigger issue for Cleveland is the offense, namely quarterback Deshawn Watson who looks lost. The Browns are ahead of only Tennessee and Carolina in Offensive Passing EPA and while the running game is better, it is not by much as they are No. 20 in Offensive Rushing EPA. This certainly is blowout potential. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Primetime Dominator. Iowa St. is off to a 5-0 start following a pair of wins over Houston and Baylor to open Big 12 Conference action with a very favorable schedule the rest of the way to have the inside track for its first championship game since 2020. The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked No. 9 in defensive EPA with five SEC teams ranked ahead of them. They have yet to allow more than 21 points which has enabled the offense to move in a non-pressured way and is an underrated unit. Iowa St. is No. 20 in Offensive EPA behind quarterback Rocco Becht, the second highest rated quarterback in the conference. They come in as the short favorite where they are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons in this conference role. West Virginia has won two straight games following its monumental collapse against rival Pittsburgh where it blew a 10-point lead with just over three minutes remaining. The Mountaineers do have the significant home field situation with this being a nationally televised night game they have not had success in these spots, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as conference underdogs of a touchdown or less. West Virginia has outgained its last four opponents but all well down in the metrics sitting at No. 35 in Offensive EPA and No. 66 in Defensive EPA. 10* (123) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. UL-Monroe came into the season with a betting win total of 2.5 following a 2-10 season last year and returning just seven starters overall. The Warhawks win over James Madison last week moved them to 4-1 and we can call this a flipped record as they have been outgained in three straight games. They won the yardage battle against Jackson St. of the FCS by just 50 yards and against UAB by only 37 yards and despite Texas on the schedule, they have played a schedule ranked No. 104. Now they come in as a favorite against a team from the FBS by the most points they have put down since 2019 as this could be the biggest overreaction number of the week after getting outgained by close to 150 yards last week. Southern Mississippi has lost three straight games by double digits so this is not a quality team by any stretch but this is a play on the number and the game situation where we catch a big underdog with a low total, the second lowest on the entire board behind UCLA/Minnesota. The Golden Eagles do have one of the worst defenses in the country but face an offense that cannot take advantage, especially one that has averaged fewer than 100 ypg rushing the last three games and likely still celebrating the upset from last week. 10* (165) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. BYU is one of five teams that has covered every game this season and by an average of 16.4 ppg which is the biggest margin of those five teams. The Cougars are a team right now that is totally overvalued as they have been one of the luckiest teams especially over the last two games. While the offense has scored 38 and 34 points, they have generated just over 300 ypg and that will not do against the second best defense it has seen this season. The first was against Kansas St. where they had only 241 total yards but was picked by the defense and special teams and that defense is in for test against the best offense it has faced. The Cougars are off a bye week and in this case, it seems like a detrimental time for their first bye to come into play. Arizona is coming off a tough loss against Texas Tech as it outgained the Red Raiders 422-331 but had three costly turnovers and were held to six field goal attempts which included one miss. It was a huge disappointment on third down yet the Wildcats remain No. 18 in Offensive EPA so the offensive scoring numbers over the last four games are completely skewed as the raw numbers show them No. 54 in total offense but just No. 85 in scoring offense. 10* (177) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Louisville was unable to bounce back from its loss against Notre Dame as it lost to SMU to fall to 1-1 in the ACC. Despite the two losses by a touchdown, the Cardinals come in as touchdown favorites for a second straight week and there is actually value in this number as they are a top 20 team in Net EPA and both sets of power ratings have them as double-digit favorites. Louisville is No. 15 in Offensive EPA, led by quarterback Tyler Shough who is a transfer from Texas Tech but was plagued by injuries in his time there and has tossed 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The last two games have come against defenses ranked in the top 20 in EPA and they take a big step down here. Virginia is off to a surprising 4-1 start and those four victories have surpassed their win total from each of the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 2-0 in the ACC after going 3-12 the last two years but they have been very fortunate as they rallied from 14-point deficits in both games. Virginia defeated Boston College 24-14 last week thanks to a +3 turnover margin which included a 40-yard touchdown on a fumble return in the fourth quarter to ice the game. The Cavaliers have played a much softer schedule as this is the first game they are underdogs and it is for a very good reason. 10* (139) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Cincinnati is coming off its first bye week following a three-point loss at Texas Tech despite outgaining the Red Raiders and generating 55 yards of total offense. The Bearcats dropped to 3-2 with the two losses coming by four points combined and they are in a great spot this week playing with double revenge off two losses by a combined six points. Cincinnati has already matched its win total from last season with those three victories in 2023 being the fewest since a 3-8 season in 1999. Central Florida is coming off a loss against Florida which was its second straight double-digit loss and this will now be its second straight game facing a team coming in with extended rest. The Knights locker rook is the real concern here as they already have six players that decided to redshirt prior to the Florida game and all have stated they will be entering the transfer portal which is not a good indicator of what is going on internally. Central Florida easily could be rising a three-game losing streak as it rallied from a double-digit deficit against TCU and scored the game-winning touchdown with just 36 seconds left in the one point victory against the Horned Frogs. This is typically one of the better home field edges in college football but we do not like where the Knights are shifting this early in the season. 10* (151) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. San Jose St. has been a pleasant surprise this season as it is off to a 4-1 start but the Spartans have played a schedule ranked No. 139 in the country and that includes a game against a very solid Washington St. team. That game resulted in a double-overtime loss where quarterback Emmett Brown went off for 375 yards in part to having one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash but Brown was benched last week against Nevada and the quarterback situation is unsettling going into this game. All four of the Spartans wins have been unimpressive with the best coming against Air Force which has turned into one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Colorado St. opened the season with a 52-0 loss against Texas but has gone 2-2 since then with the losses coming against a very improved Colorado team and then a touchdown loss against Oregon St. last week on the road in double overtime. After six straight losing seasons, this is the chance to get back to .500 with the easiest remaining schedule in the conference with only one game against a likely conference contender in Fresno St. This line has flipped with the Rams now slight favorites despite nearly three quarters of the money on San Jose St. and the reverse line move seals it. 10* (176) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is another game where we have seen a line switch as San Diego St. opened as the favorite and actually went up during the week but now Wyoming is a coin flip chalk. The Aztecs are coming off a win over Hawaii despite getting outgained 356-323 and that was the fourth straight game they have been outgained in. The only positive on the schedule was the game against Texas A&M-Commerce of the FCS so that has skewed the overall numbers and yet San Diego St. is still No. 129 in Offensive EPA and No. 119 in Defensive EPA. The offense has generated more points in each of their last four games but are still No. 114 in scoring and have averaged only 14.5 ppg in their last four games. Wyoming picked up its first win of the season in a 31-19 victory over Air Force which is far from a good team but the defensive effort was another encouraging one. The Cowboys have allowed 237, 138/ and 320 total yards in three of their last four games with the lone exception getting run over by North Texas on the road. Wyoming has outgained all three opponents at home including BYU despite losing 34-14 which was one of the skewed final scores that have to be taken into account. This is a great spot again for Wyoming in a tough visiting environment. 10* (192) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our MAC Game of the Year. Miami Ohio is coming off its been season in over a decade but now at 1-4, it has already surpassed it loss total from all of last season. The RedHawks are coming off a 10-point loss at Toledo last week which was the first conference game for both teams and the Rockets were able to get their revenge from the MAC Championship loss from last season. The lone victory for Miami came against Massachusetts in overtime which is far from a quality victory but now they enter this game coming in with the No. 34 ranked schedule played so it has been a brutal early stretch for what is now a battle tested team in need of a victory. Eastern Michigan is just the opposite as it is off to a 4-1 start with its lone defeat coming at Washington. The Eagles have won their last three games since then but those victories came against Jacksonville St., St. Francis (PA) of the FCS and Kent St. and the of the three FBS victories, the best came against a team ranked No. 102 in Net EPA and Miami is ranked well ahead of all of those teams with a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball. Eastern Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS and that is the streak to fade in this case as it is one of only six teams in the country that has yet to not cover a game. 10* (121) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. North Carolina is coming off a 10-point loss against Pittsburgh where it was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and the Tar Heels have now lost three straight games following a 3-0 start so this is where we find what this team is made of. They were underdogs last week at home against the Panthers and are now bigger home underdogs against a team ranked lower in our two sets of power ratings. This number is overadjusted because North Carolina is 0-5-1 ATS, one of five teams that have yet to cover a number this season. The spreads have significantly decreased from the first game to now which is partly a direct effect from the lack of cover success. Georgia Tech opened the season with at the time was thought to be a huge upset over Florida St. but with what the Seminoles have done since, it was far from a quality win. The Yellow Jackets are now 4-2 following a win over Duke which handed the Blue Devils their first loss of the season and they improved to 3-0 at home but hit the road again where they are 0-2 in true road games. The offense was one of the best in the country last season but has taken a step back and the most concerning thing is on the other side as the Yellow Jackets are ranked No. 80 in Defensive EPA. 10* (162) North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa crushed us last week in a 35-7 loss against Ohio St. after trailing just 7-0 at halftime. The Hawkeyes are now 3-2 and return home for the first time in a month in a fantastic spot looking for the rebound. The offense got nothing going against the top defense in the country as they were held to a season low 226 total yards and were limited to fewer than 200 yards rushing for the first time this season. The passing offense remains a concern as it is now No. 127 in the country but now faces an overrated Washington defense based on the schedule. The Hawkeyes have been awesome at home in this spot, going 31-18-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Washington is a player in its first season the Big 10 as it is now 2-1 following a 27-17 win over Michigan, a game it has had circled since the schedule came out following its National Championship loss to the Wolverines last season. The Huskies are now in a dangerous spot coming off that emotional win and having to yet again travel across multiple time zones, the first coming in a loss at Rutgers. Washington does have the better offense but it has come against a much softer schedule and while it lit up the Michigan defense for 429 yards last week, the games at home are a totally different scenario. 10* (200) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. The Utah quarterback situation remains a mess as the uncertain health of Cam Rising has been ongoing for the last 19 months dating back to a knee injury in the 2023 Rose Bowl. He made two starts but was injured in the second one against Baylor and has not seen the field since then and his status for Friday remains up in the air and shutting him down for the season is a possibility according to head coach Kyle Whittingham. Freshman Isaac Wilson has started the last three games and has completed only 55.7 percent of his passes for 830 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions so it has not been good. The last games resulted in a 23-10 loss to Arizona and now the Utes are favored by nearly the same amount on the road that is nearly identical in the power rankings as Arizona. Arizona St. is also 4-1 with its loss coming at Texas Tech two games back despite outgaining the Red Raiders. The Sun Devils have covered only one of their last three games but this is their first time as underdogs and at home no less. After going 3-9 in each of the last two seasons, Arizona St. has been one of the most improved teams in the country as it is averaging over 16 more ppg and allowing eight fewer ppg than last season. The Sun Devils are 49 spots higher in Offensive EPA and 7 spots lower in Defensive EPA than Utah and its Net EPA of No. 27 is significantly better than that of the Utah Net EPA ranking of No. 63. The national spotlight will be on Arizona St. and it will want this one more than a few others as they will be out for revenge following a 55-3 loss to the Utes last season which also officially ended their bowl chances as it was their seventh loss of the season. 10* (120) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This number opened at 3.5 and has not moved all week with the majority of the action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco is off to a 2-3 start following a loss against Arizona and it hits the road where it has dropped both games at Minnesota and Los Angeles with the two wins coming against the Jets, that just fired their coach, and the Patriots, arguably the worst team in the AFC. They have fallen to No. 8 in Net EPA and No. 9 in Total DVOA and injuries remain an issue as they hit the road following two straight home games and playing on a short week. Seattle has had a strange couple weeks as it dominated Detroit and lost and followed that up losing the time of possession against the Giants by nearly a full quarter as it ran the ball only 11 times. This is not the gameplan to have success with one of the top running backs in the league in Kenneth Walker after having only five carries last week and Seattle has now lost 10 of 16 games when he gets fewer than 10 carries while going 15-8 in 23 games when he carries the ball 10 or more times. Despite the two recent losses, Seattle is ranked ahead of the 49ers in Total DVOA as No. 8 with an offense that is ranked No. 6. While the defense is not at that same level, they have improved under new head coach Mike McDonald, as they are No. 13 in DVOA this season compared to No. 28 last year. The Seahawks are 25-14-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season. 10* (106) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. After opening the season 0-3, Jacksonville St. has won its last two games sandwiched around a bye in blowout fashion, defeating Southern Mississippi by 37 points three weeks ago and Kennesaw St. by 39 points last Friday so the Gamecocks are working on a very short week. They were in a fight for the opening half last game as they led the Owls by only four points at halftime before 28 unanswered points to open the second half. Jacksonville St. comes in favored again by over three possessions and this one is overadjusted based on the last two results as our two sets of power ratings has it favored by two touchdowns so there is value with this number as well. New Mexico St. has lost four straight games following a season opening win over SE Missouri St. while failing to cover the last three. The most recent loss came against rival New Mexico which was 10 days ago so the Aggies have the big rest and preparation advantage. The schedules are ranked very similar with the Aggies having played the No. 106 ranked slate with the Jacksonville St. schedule coming in No. 119 and this plays into the metrics which goes into those power ratings. New Mexico St. is No. 131 on Net EPA which is horrible but the Gamecocks are not much further up at No. 102. 10* (103) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Chiefs came away with another come-from-behind victory as they came back from a 10-0 deficit against the Chargers and scored 17 unanswered points for the 17-0 victory to move to 4-0. The only game they have not trailed in was the season opener against Baltimore and they have been behind in the second half in each of their last three games but found ways to remain undefeated. Kansas City suffered a huge loss with Rashee Rice injuring his knee and while the timetable for his absence is unknown, he will be missed here as the No. 1 target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The offense has regressed its point production in each of the last four games and the Chiefs come in ranked No. 10 in Offensive DVOA and No. 11 in Offensive EPA and square off against what has been an elite defense with the Saints coming in No. 2 in Defensive DVOA and No. 6 in Defensive EPA. The Saints are coming off a last second loss against Atlanta which was their second straight loss, coming by a combined four points, following a 2-0 start outscoring Carolina and Dallas 91-29. New Orleans could easily be 4-0 and that is reflected with their No. 1 overall EPA ranking. Despite two straight subpar efforts, the offense is No. 9 in DVOA and No. 4 in EPA and while the offensive line was depleted last week, they still registered 366 total yards against the Falcons which have a very comparable defense with that of Kansas City. Chris Jones is the best defensive lineman in the game and can create havoc but New Orleans has been solid against pressure despite the injuries. The Chiefs are overvalued again as the metric numbers have this as a -3 spread yet the line has climbed to -5.5 after sitting at -4.5 Wednesday. 10* (475) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay got the good news last week as it welcomed quarterback Jordan Love back after missing two games but the bad news is that he was clearly rusty and the defense did him no favors as the Packers fell behind 28-0 in an eventual 31-29 loss to the Vikings. Love was able to spread the ball around and he threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions and that will get cleaned up this week. Green Bay faced a very good Vikings defense and were eventually able to find their way and despite Love out for two games, the Packers are No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and No. 10 in Offensive EPA. Now they face a Rams defense that is No. 31 in Defensive DVOA and No. 32 in Defensive EPA and they have struggled against both the pass and run so expect more balance from Green Bay after last week having to shift to a mostly passing attack. The Rams are fortunate not to be 0-4 as they were able to pick up a near miracle win against the 49ers where their win probability at one point late in the game was at five percent. 13 of their 27 points against the 49ers came in the fourth quarter and this has been the story all season as Los Angeles has scored a total of 40 points in the first three quarters while scoring 32 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have crushed the offense and while the wide receivers have been the story, the offensive line has been devasted as well with three starters on IR. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out and the offense has dipped to second half of the league in DVOA and EPA. While the Rams are No. 8 in Offensive rushing EPA, they face a Green Bay defense that is No. 4 in Defensive Rushing EPA. 10* (469) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season and it was not even close as the Bills were dominated from the start and that was a loss that can actually help going forward. This will be their second straight road game but have the ideal situation coming off an embarrassing stand alone game loss and now finally playing their first 1:00 game of the season. Buffalo is ranked in the top five in both Offensive DVOA and EPA and face a Texans defense that is ranked No. 17 in Defensive EPA so we ae expecting a big bounce back from the offense that scored only 10 points last week. The 12 first downs generated were the fewest for a Buffalo team in five years. Houston has not been impressive in its 3-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by while needing a late score last week to get past Jacksonville. Stroud did have a solid game but that was against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA and second to last in EPA. Despite the Bills injuries and suspensions, the Texans take a big step up. Buffalo was torched on defense against the Ravens but are still a respectable No. 10 in Defensive DVOA and in the only other two games they have faced a defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA, they managed 26 combined points. Early money has poured in on Buffalo yet the line has not moved and that is certainly telling. 10* (457) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville came through with the cover but failed to pick up the win as it could not hold the lead it got halfway through the third quarter, allowing a touchdown with 18 seconds left to remain the only winless team in the NFL. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, then they ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo before another game last week they could have won. The offense has gotten the blame but they are No. 21 in Offensive DVOA which is far from great but hardly horrible and they will be facing an average defense this week as the Colts are No. 17 in Defensive DVOA as their best two games were against the Packers without Jordan Love and still lost and against Bears rookie Caleb Williams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts and is 20-34 in his career and he is coming off a mistake free game with another great chance to break that streak. The Colts defeated the Steelers last week to make it two straight wins but they suffered two big blows. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game with a hip injury putting this game in question although there is optimism he will play. If not, it will be Joe Flacco and at this point, there is no difference in the betting market and who will lead this team. The bigger injury was the ankle sprain of Jonathan Taylor who has not practiced. He is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 349 yards and they will not bring him back early after suffering the same injury last season and came back too early as he reaggravated it. The Jaguars defense has been the real issue as they are No. 32 in Defensive DVOA but that is due to the last two games as they played solid the first two against a comparable offense. 10* (460) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. While Minnesota has been the big surprise in the league, Washington is right up there as it has been the talk the last two weeks and their offensive output. Those games against Arizona and Cincinnati were against defenses ranked No. 28 and No. 26 in Defensive EPA respectively so the Commanders were far from challenged. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding as he has completed 82.1 percent of his passes and has posted a 107.4 passer rating but this will be his first test against a strong defense. The Browns were one of the best in the NFL last season in EPA and DVOA and while they have slipped some this season, the opener against Dallas has a lot to do with that and they have been much better the last three weeks, albeit against some pedestrian offenses. Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a great job of game planning and the key here is to clean up the missed tackles. The Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL as they have yet to score 20 points in four games and they have not exactly faced a potent defense. That does not change here as they now get to go against the worst defense they have encountered with Washington ranked No. 30 in both Defensive DVOA and EPA and this is the breakout game they need if they want to salvage this season. The offensive line has been a big problem but they are starting to get healthy again. This is also a play on the spread which absolutely looks like a trap line. Washington has looked like one of the best teams over the last two weeks yet are favored by just a field goal as of Wednesday, just a half-point more that what Las Vegas was favored by over Cleveland last week. 10* (463) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Early Dominator. Minnesota is the surprise of the NFL as it is off to a 4-0 start and has been the most dominating team not only because of the perfect straight up record but the Vikings are off to a 4-0 ATS start, covering by an average of 16.2 ppg. Now is the time to go against this streak as we have seen a line flip from +2.5 to -2.5 based on overall success and what was seem last week. Defeating the Giants in Week One was nothing special and the last three wins, they have had great situation, facing the 49ers in their first road game coming off a big home win over the Jets, facing an overvalued Houston team that was 2-0 and last week going up against Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love making his first start since opening week and very rusty early on. This will be the toughest matchup quarterback Sam Darnold has faced. The Jets are coming off a bad home loss against Denver as they missed a late field goal for the win but the conditions were horrible which hurt their offense more than it affected the Broncos offense. They managed only 248 total yards with quarterback Aaron Rodgers going just 24-42 where the rain made a difference in the accuracy. He faces a tough defense this week as the Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA but he is one of a very few quarterbacks than can work around this. The big edge for the Jets is the defense as they are No. 1 in Passing EPA Defense and they have allowed just 30 points in their last three games after giving up 32 in their season opener. Not only do we expect Rodgers to bounce back but we expect the Jets defense to continue to dominate. 10* (451) New York Jets

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our SBC Game of the Year. South Alabama opened the season with a pair of losses against North Texas which is proving to be a very good team on offense as evidenced by the 52 points scored against the Jaguars and then lost at Ohio by a touchdown. They were able to respond with a pair of blowouts and while we cannot count the game against Northwestern St., a 34-point win at Appalachian St. was very impressive and now they are playing their third straight road game which is not a concern in this spot. The lost at LSU last week as the defense could not stop the Tigers early and were never able to get into a rhythm on offense. Still, South Alabama is ranked No. 47 in Offensive EPA which has come against a middling schedule and this is a big game to move to 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference before their bye and three straight home games following that so there will be full focus here. Arkansas St. comes in at 2-2 as it opened with a pair of wins at home before hitting the road against two Power 4 teams. They had that impressive 10-point loss at Michigan but that was a game where Michigan was looking ahead to hosting USC so they kept it vanilla after taking a 21-3 lead at halftime and the Red Wolves were exposed two weeks ago at Iowa St. The concerning part are those two wins as Arkansas St. beat Central Arkansas of the FCS by only three points and skated by Tulsa, which is ranked No. 123 and No. 108 in our two sets of ratings, in the most recent win by just four points. And both of those were at home. The Red Wolves have played the tougher overall schedule but they still come in No. 98 in both Offensive and Defensive EPA with a Net EPA of No. 101. They do come in as the home underdog and in this spot, that is the right number but we do not think it will be nearly enough. 10* (387) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Based on recent history, no one will touching this side but history cannot always be counted on especially considering these teams have only played each other twice since 2017. This is a tough spot for Alabama after facing Georgia as it was the biggest game of the season so far and now it has to hit the road after facing the Bulldogs for the first time since 2007 which puts it in an even tougher situation and out of a comfort zone. The dynamic of the game last week is also playing a big role as the Crimson Tide blew a 28-0 lead and needed a game-winning touchdown with just over two minutes remaining after falling behind by allowing 19 unanswered points to open the fourth quarter. Obviously, Alabama has the talent to roll over most of the country but this has the potential to be a sneaky test if full focus is not present. Vanderbilt got off to its second straight 2-0 start which included an upset win over Virginia Tech in overtime in the season opener but it has dropped two straight games, both on the road. The loss against Georgia St. was simply a bad spot looking ahead to a game at Missouri on the road and the Commodores ended up losing those games by a combined seven points. A loss is never ideal but the loss against the Tigers was a quality one and a few plays the other way, they could be sitting 4-0 right now. A huge transfer acquisition was quarterback Diego Pavia who is a great game manager here and in his days at New Mexico St. where he produced some big wins. He can get it done both ways but it is essential to get a quality group of wide receivers more involved. They have played a schedule ranked No. 73 which is average but they have put up a No. 45 Net EPA, the best number in years to keep this within reach. 10* (350) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. On paper, this looks like a great spot for Toledo which opened the season 3-0 but suffered its first loss at Western Kentucky two weeks ago and is coming off its first of two bye weeks and playing with revenge from the MAC Championship last season so this seems to be a great situational spot. The RedHawks and Rockets were interchangeably picked one-two to win the MAC and are surprisingly opening MAC play facing each other so the winner here will have the edge with both teams having favorable schedules going forward. Miami opened the season 0-3 at it faced three Power 4 teams and went into last week playing the No. 43 ranked schedule but despite the losses, it got it ready for conference play and the RedHawks were in the hunt in all of those, even the last one against Notre Dame as they were down only 14-3 late in the fourth quarter. The offense has yet to get going as expected based on the schedule with just 25 total points scored in those first three games followed by a disappointing 23-pointr effort last week against Massachusetts where they needed overtime to capture their first victory. Coming off Notre Dame with this game on deck certainly played a role in that lethargic effort. Going back to 2001, seven of their eight conference losses have been by six points or less and coming by an average of 3.1 ppg. While Miami has noy played a schedule ranked No. 36, Toledo has faced a slate ranked No. 147 with their biggest test being that Western Kentucky game and while the Rockets do have a win over Mississippi St., the Bulldogs are the worst team in the SEC. Toledo was maybe a surprise pick to contend with just four starters back on each side of the ball but a lot of that was based on successful recent history and we are not sold yet. 10* (335) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Star Attraction. Ohio St. is staking its claim to be the best team in the country as following a 38-7 win over Michigan St., the Buckeyes are 4-0 and doing it on both sides of the ball as they are No. 1 in Offensive EPA and No. 2 in Defensive EPA. The issue is, they have not been tested as this is not the Michigan St. of old and their three nonconference games came against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall for an overall schedule ranking of No. 131 which is the second easiest among all teams ranked in the top 30. A year ago, the Ohio St. defense would eat up the Iowa offense similar to how it did in 2022 it will not be as easy this time around. Looking at their own offense Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard has been decent enough to show positive signs but he is still ranked only No. 14 in Passing Efficiency which is still pretty good but not against the competition he has faced. Getting flushed out of the pocket can be his undoing and we see that happening here against by far the best defense he has faced. Iowa suffered a tough one point loss against Iowa St. in its second game of the season on a 54-yard field goal with six seconds remaining for its only blemish so far this season. The Hawkeyes bounced back with a pair of wins over Troy and Minnesota where they scored 38 and 31 points respectively, the third time they have eclipsed 30 points and to put that in perspective, they scored 30 or more points twice in the previous two seasons combined. Obviously, they take a step up here against the toughest defense they have seen as well but we no longer know that 10 points is their floor. Defensively, they are stout again as they come in No. 19 in Defensive EPA and they still have yet to show their best. The will not shut down the Buckeyes completely but enough to stay within this inflated number. 10* (393) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Here we have a situation of a false favorite as these two teams are very evenly matched with the defenses right on the same number with the Pittsburgh offense having an edge but that can be attributed to the schedules played. North Carolina comes in on a two-game losing streak as it was blown out by James Madison at home two weeks ago and lost by a point to rival Duke last week as it blew a 20- late third quarter lead. This is where the Tar Heels need to get up off the mat and respond and this is the perfect opportunity to do that. North Carolina is 3-2 which did include an impressive win at Minnesota to open the season and those three victories are where the defense was great with the loss to the Dukes allowing 70 points twisting the numbers with two non-offensive touchdowns allowed. The Tar Heels are still ranked No. 55 in Defensive EPA. Pittsburgh is 4-0 to start the season so give it credit as it easily could be 2-2. The Panthers are getting votes in the latest AP Poll which equates to a No. 27 ranking but in our two sets of power ratings, they are No. 54 and No. 46 having played a schedule ranked No. 123. Two of their wins have come against Kent St., the worst team in both sets of ratings 55-24, and Youngstown St. of the FCS 73-17 so those are far from influential. The other two victories against Cincinnati and West Virginia were comeback wins as Pittsburgh trailed by 24 points late in the third quarter and 10 points with three minutes left in the fourth quarter respectively. The Panthers have vaulted to No. 24 in Offensive EPA which is completely skewed. This is the spot where we go against an undefeated 4-0 ATS team as these undefeated streaks play in role in skewing lines and this has outright win written all over it. 10* (314) North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. SMU got its inaugural ACC season off to a solid start with a 42-16 win over Florida St. and even though the Seminoles are in a very down season, that was a statement win over a name program in their first Power 4 season which now presents a letdown. The Mustangs are 4-1 with the lone loss coming against BYU by three points which is actually looking better at this point and that is a game where they only scored 15 points. SMU comes in No. 49 in Offensive EPA despite being No. 13 in scoring and this disparity can be attributed to five non-offensive touchdowns which takes any offensive equation out. Those scores do help the defensive numbers as the Mustangs are No. 22 in Defensive EPA but those fluke scores cannot be counted on going forward. SMU opened the season with a narrow five-point road win over Nevada, which is No. 109 and No. 106 in the power ratings, and this is the first true road game since then, a span of six weeks. Louisville opened the season 3-0 which did include a solid win over Georgia Tech by 12 points and had every opportunity last week to upset Notre Dame on the road but mistakes did the Cardinals in. They outgained the Fighting Irish 395-280 but had three costly turnovers that led to 17 points where Notre Dame had to only a total of 63 yards combined. Putting that loss behind them is obviously essential which we think will not be a problem as they had a similar spot last season where they dominated Pittsburgh on the road and lost and followed that up with a 23-0 home win over Duke. The Cardinals are ranked No. 15 in Offensive EPA which will neutralize the overrated SMU defense and they also come in ranked No. 17 in total offense and scoring offense. There is no lookahead with Virginia on deck. 10* (320) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. NC State has been far from impressive this season as it is 3-2 with no real dominating win but this is the get right spot. The Wolfpack have wins over Western Carolina, Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois and while they cannot be happy with any of those based on execution, they were all at home where they got the job done and are 3-0 in Raleigh. NC State was hammered in its two losses, both of which were away from home, losing to Tennessee, which is certainly a National Championship player and Clemson, which has looked really good since getting crushed by Georgia. They have been pretty average on both sides of the ball but this is a spot where the defense can put up another strong effort after allowing 283 yards against Northern Illinois while posting a defensive touchdown. The offense is the real concern as quarterback Grayson McCall left against Louisiana Tech and has missed the last two games but could return here. If not, it is not dire as C.J. Bailey has two starts under his belt and has a great matchup here. NC State is 0-5 ATS which puts them in the optimal value take spot. Wake Forest is off to a disappointing 1-3 start with the lone win coming against North Carolina A&T to open the season. The Demon Deacons have had their chances as two losses against Virginia and Louisiana were by a combined four points as they blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead against the Cavaliers and never led last week against Louisiana. The offense was solid in both of those games but as mentioned, they do have a test this week. The Wake Forest defense has been exposed as they are No. 112 in Defensive EPA while allowing the seventh most yards in all of the FBS. The Demon Deacons have opened with four straight home games so this is the first venture on the road. 10* (334) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. The big news last week was UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka leaving school because of an NIL deal gone awry but the Rebels were not phased as they hung 45 points on Fresno St. behind replacement Hajj-Malik Williams and his 300 total yards including 119 yards on the ground. In comparison, the Orange faced another duel threat quarterback earlier in the season in Haynes King who put up a similar stat line and while Syracuse won that game, it was at home and the Yellow Jackets were coming off a pair of wins prior to that with that being their first true road game. Overall, UNLV is ranked No. 24 in Net EPA with the defense leading the way at No. 17 but the offense is good enough to get to the Syracuse defense which had another poor game against Holy Cross from the FCS as the defensive line was once again unable to get a push and while Syracuse has an above average secondary, giving Williams a lot of time will enable him to pick them apart. The Orange are ranked No. 81 in defensive EPA which is not very good considering playing a schedule ranked No. 118. Quarterback Kyle McCord is having a fantastic season with four 300-yard game but he has regressed over the last two games with his completion percentage decreasing while throwing four interceptions. While they are No. 3 in passing offense, they are just No. 112 in rushing offense. They have yet to leave Syracuse and now have to do so by going to the west coast on a short week with an ACC game at NC State on deck. The story right now is the line move as this opened between 3.5 and 4, jumped to 4.5 on Sunday afternoon then moved to 5 then to 6 then to 6.5 on Monday morning. We will be riding with the smart money. 10* (368) UNLV Runnin' Rebels

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta came away with a win on a last second field goal over New Orleans in Week Four despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Falcons recovered a punt for a touchdown and has an interception for another and we have yet to see this offense come alive and we could finally see that happen here. They have the benefit of playing on a short week in consecutive games while Tampa Bay has to travel and while it is not a far jaunt, the time takes away from preparation. Atlanta is just No. 20 in total offense with Kirk Cousins coming off another below average performance. Atlanta has gone down to the last seconds in each of its last three games, winning two of those and this is the situation where the Falcons can finally have that overall effort against a still banged up defense and what is considered an overvalued offense. Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia from the start as it jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the defense did its job the rest of the way. This game was a question of are the Buccaneers this good or are the Eagles in trouble and we are going with the latter as they have been out of sorts all season whether it be offense or defense. Baker Mayfield had a great game to help Tampa Bay improve to 3-1 on the season but it has been inconsistent as it is ranked No. 16 in total offense and No. 11 in total defense and that is where the Luck Ratings come into play. Despite the domination of Philadelphia, this is where recency bias comes into play because that is what most will remember and what the line is being based on, not the Buccaneers last road game at Detroit where they were outgained by 296 yards despite winning which is also being in that Luck Rating effect. 10* (302) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start, led by a defense that is allowing 3.9 yppl which is lowest in the NFL and it is No. 3 in Defensive EPA. The Seahawks have benefited from playing a schedule that is ranked No. 31 which has played a big part of that defensive success as is the fact they have faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Those three quarterbacks have led offenses ranked No. 26, No. 24 and No. 29 in Offensive EPA respectively so they have not been tested which changes this week. The Seattle offense is averaging 24.3 ppg which is tied for No. 8 but like the other side, they have not faced a good defense as the three opponents are ranked No. 19 or worse in EPA and they will be facing their toughest defense thus far. Detroit is coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Tampa Bay two weeks ago despite outgaining the Buccaneers by 246 total yards. The Lions managed only 16 points but put up 463 yards of offense so the production was there, just not the scoring which has been an issue. The Lions have been a disappointment of offense this season as they are averaging 20.7 ppg overall and 18.6 ppg in regulation and they are ranked No. 13 in Offensive EPA. The difference between Detroit and the three teams the Seahawks have played is that the Lions have the potential, they just have not gotten it together quite yet. They averaged 28.7 ppg last season so they will be just fine. On the other side, the Lions are ranked No. 10 in Defensive EPA while allowing 17.7 ppg which is No. 9. This is a historically bad spot for the Seahawks as we play against teams that are 3-0 and playing as road underdogs as these teams are just 3-13 ATS over the last 15 years. This includes a 28-point loss by Miami against Buffalo last season and Minnesota and Buffalo pending this Sunday. 10* (292) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start and are looking dominant in doing so but they have faced a schedule ranked No. 23 and the spots in the schedule have also been in their favor. They opened at home against the Cardinals and needed a big second half and a late stop to win, they were outgained by Miami 351-247 and got a nice break going from a Thursday night to a Monday night against Jacksonville. Taking nothing away from Buffalo, this is a very strong team that is currently behind Kansas City in Super Bowl odds at +750 after opening +1,500 but now comes a test. Baltimore opened the season with a loss in Kansas city that was a toe away from overtime and then the Ravens allowed the Raiders, the same Raiders that were blown out by Carolina last week, to stage a late comeback and then nearly let the Cowboys do the same last week. They ran all over Dallas and are tied for No. 1 in Rushing EPA as they finally utilized Derrick Henry to his ability and paired with Lamar Jackson, this is a tough offense to stop. Buffalo is ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Rushing EPA. Admittedly, the Ravens defense has slipped looking at their metrics but their first half and second half defenses are polar opposites and those prevent styles the last two games with having big leads has to stop and it almost results in a second straight implosion. One of the most widely known recent situations is Lamar Jackson is now 23-7 ATS then not favored by three or more points as an underdog following another cover last week. 10* (288) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Saints suffered their first loss of the season as they fell to Philadelphia 15-12 as they allowed two Saquon Barkley touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the second with 1:01 remaining to seal the win for the Eagles. While it was only a three-point loss, the Saints were outgained 460-219 by the Eagles so we have a skewed final score that should have been a lot worse but it was Philadelphia that kept kicking itself in the foot. New Orleans is turning into a public team as the early money is on New Orleans again but the first two victories are not worth much as Carolina was a disaster through two weeks and we saw Dallas get gashed again last week. Injuries along the offensive line will be a factor this week. The Falcons have injuries along the offensive line as well which hurt them last week they were in position to defeat the Chiefs and at least be given an opportunity late but a missed pass interference call benefitted Kansas City once again. Atlanta is now 1-2 with the lone win coming against the Eagles on a last minute drive so the last two games have come down to the wire. After a rough first game for Kirk Cousins, partly coming back from injury and also a vanilla game plan, he has looked a lot more comfortable the last two games. The Falcons are favored again for the first time since the opener with a reverse line move as the number has gone up from -1 since the opener but is still under the key number of three as of Thursday. 10* (264) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Scoring is down in the NFL this season and through three weeks, there are nine teams averaging 17 ppg or fewer and taking out the Steelers, the other eight teams are a combined 6-18, none of which have a winning record so the 3-0 Steelers are an outlier. Pittsburgh is undefeated because of its defense as it is allowing a league low 8.7 ppg, giving up no more than 10 points in any game. While impressive, the opposition has played a role as the Steelers caught Kirk Cousins in his first game back from an Achilles injury, rookie Bo Nix in his second NFL game and Justin Herbert having to leave because of an ankle injury. The Steelers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games when favored on the road against teams with a losing record. The Colts picked up their first win of the season as they defeated the Bears 21-16 despite getting outgained 395-306 as they took advantage of three Chicago turnovers. Typically, we stay away from winning teams that were outgained but the fade from the other side is too strong and the fact Indianapolis remains home making this is a good opportunity for an offense to finally get to the Steelers defense. Anthony Richardson has been far from clean as his last two games have seen passer ratings of 41.8 and 39.0 but there have been flashes and we are starting to see the old version of Jonathan Taylor emerge. The defense has looked good enough to contain Justin Fields, who has been efficient but has yet to have to make plays when needed in clutch time. 10* (266) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville is coming off an absolutely awful performance at Buffalo on Monday night to fall to 0-3 and will likely be one of the least publicly bet teams in Week Four. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost eight straight starts and is 20-33 in his career with an 84.5 passer rating. And we are on him to bounce back. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, they just ran into a buzzsaw last week and teams that lost by 35 or more points as underdogs of four or more points are 50-19-2 ATS. Houston has not been impressive in its 2-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by. Many are expecting a bounce back from Houston and the linemakers are predicting the market and have moved with it with what is now an absurd number. This is an interesting line move as it opened at 4.5, which is the same amount the Jaguars were getting in Buffalo and now it has risen to 6.5. So the move is saying the Texans are the same team as the Bills at this point in the season? Absolutely not. Also the move is based on the horrible Jacksonville performance at Buffalo but there is no reaction to the horrible Houston performance in Minnesota so the guess is we can only call it a half overreaction. 10* (267) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Chicago was anointed NFC North Champions by many before the season started and it is fortunate to be 1-2 as it opened the season with a win over Tennessee, a bottom five teams in the league, needing to overcome a 17-0 deficit to win 24-7 with two of the Bears touchdowns via punt return and interception return. We are not counting them out however as they showed life last week by outgaining the Colts 395-306 but were hurt by three turnovers including a pair of bad passes from Caleb Williams. Despite the two interceptions, he posted his highest passer rating and while it was not spectacular, it showed improvement as he threw for 363 yards and tossed his first two touchdowns. There is still more room for improvement and heading back home against the second worst defense in EPA can do that. The Rams are coming off an improbable win last week over the 49ers, coming back from three separate double-digit deficits. It was the first win for Los Angeles as it bounced back from a throttling in Arizona which came after an overtime loss against the Lions, a game obviously that could have gone either way. That was when the Rams were healthy however as they are riddled with injuries with the two top receivers still out as well as two offensive guards. Kyren Williams carried the Rams with the last three touchdowns but he rushed for just 3.7 ypg so whoever says he went off, he did not unless referring to fantasy. The defense again lets them down. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. We played against Washington St. last week as it failed to cover the big number against San Jose St. in a 54-52 win in overtime and we based that play partially due to a letdown coming off a win over Washington in the Apple Cup. There will be no letdown from the win over the Spartans as that served more as a motivator to get their act together. The Cougars are 4-0 thanks to a potent offense that is No. 10 overall and No. 13 in scoring and while the defense leaves a lot to be desired, their one big liability cannot be taken advantage of here as their passing defense will not be challenged. This is another game where we have an inflated line based on the love of the home team and field. Boise St. is 2-1 as it opened with a pair of road games which it split. The Broncos defeated Georgia Southern but they did not look good in doing so as they won 56-45 and then followed that up with a loss against Oregon 37-34. They rolled over Portland St. last week coming out the bye but we cannot take much from that and the defense has been lit up in its two FBS games despite being an experienced unit that brought back 11 starters. But that same unit allowed 25.6 ppg on 385 ypg last season so there may be no improvement and they will be facing an offense that is balanced at No. 22 in both passing and rushing and will be in another vulnerable spot here. 10* (161) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. 0-3 Florida St. got off the mat to win its first game of the season and moved to 1-2 in the ACC with a 14-9 win over California. The offense did nothing for a fourth straight game but that should change here as there first four games have all been against defenses better than what they are going to see here. The Seminoles defense is just fine even though the numbers really do not show it because the offense has put it in some bad spots. To no surprise, the huge majority of the money is on SMU but we have actually seen the line decrease slightly. Out two sets of power ranking have the Seminoles as 2 and 1.5-point underdogs so this is a skewed number based on nobody will be taking Florida St. SMU is coming off a 66-42 romp over TCU in the Iron Skillet and that is also playing in this number. Now that victory could normally lead to a letdown but we are not banking on that here based on the fact of who their opponent is and that this is their inaugural ACC game. That being said, this is by far the most athletic team they have faced and overall, the Mustangs have played a schedule ranked No. 83 compared to a schedule rank of No. 15 for Florida St. SMU has a very average defense and that is with playing a game against Houston Christian of the FCS where it allowed only seven points and 157 total yards. A lot of emotions in Dallas will not be enough to get it done here. 10* (147) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Texas Tech is off to a 3-1 start following a pair of solid wins over North Texas and Arizona St. and now it remains in Lubbock for its third straight home game. It opened the season with a 52-51 win over Abilene Christian and while that was a concern seeing they were 31.5-point favorites, that was the opener and in the past. They lost to Washington St. following week even though the Red Raiders outgained Washington St. in that loss but they were hurt by four turnovers and that is always a dagger. The offense is rolling behind quarterback Behren Morton who has already thrown for 1,175 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions and he is a quarterback Cincinnati has not seen yet. The Bearcats are also 3-1 and really should be 4-0 as they blew a huge lead against Pittsburgh in a 28-27 loss but they have rebounded with a pair of big wins. Cincinnati took out rival Miami before shutting out Houston last week 34-0 and teams coming off shutouts tend to be good fades next time out especially when facing a potent offense. They have already matched their win total from last season overall and in the Big 12 but now comes the tough night road game and they are No. 89 in total defense even with the shutout last week. This is another game where we are seeing a reverse line move as Cincinnati is taking 70 percent of the money yet the line has come down and we love that reverse line movement. 10* (154) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our AAC Game of the Year. North Texas is 3-1 with the one loss being a bad one at Texas Tech as the defense could not contain the Red Raiders passing attack but it will not have to worry about that here. The Mean Green have advantaged in all four facets here, the rushing and passing offenses and defenses and it really is not close which means this could get ugly and we only have to lay less than a touchdown. They are No. 11 in Rushing Explosiveness which compliments quarterback Chandler Morris who has been explosive, throwing for over 300 yards in three of his four games so this is a balanced attack that is ranked No. 16 overall and No. 24 in points scored. Their defense is not good but it rates higher than what Tulsa bring in on offense. Tulsa is off to a 2-2 start as it opened with a win over Northwestern St. and most recently picked up a road win at Louisiana Tech but the Bulldogs are not a good team and it took overtime in the 23-20 victory. While they did only allow 20 points, this defense is not very good in both aspects. The Golden Hurricane come in ranked No. 104 in Rushing Explosiveness and on the passing side, they are No. 120 in Passing Success Rate and No. 126 in EPA so they can get lit up both ways. Offensively, Tulsa is better but far below average as they are outside the top 90 in Passing Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate so they cannot take advantage of a somewhat skewed North Texas defense. 10* (184) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Ball St. opened the season with a win over Missouri St. but it has lost its last two, getting blown out at Miami and coming up just short at Central Michigan last week 37-34. The Cardinals venture back out on the road for a third straight road game but that will not be a deterrent here as the situation sets up great. They will be a big public fade based on the fact their defense is one of the worst in the country, with the Miami loss skewing that because of the 62 points and 750 yards allowed, and the fact James Madison hung 70 points on North Carolina last week. Ball St. has been solid on offense in the other two game with quarterback Kadin Semonza putting up solid numbers. The Dukes gave it to the Tar Heels as they put up 53 points in the first half while putting up over 600 yards of total offense overall and it could have been even more if not for 12 penalties for 105 yards. While it was not a rivalry, it was a massive victory over a Power 4 team, their biggest ever, and that presents a letdown opportunity to go against them. The line has taken that into consideration and it has already gone up and is now pushing three touchdowns in some places on Tuesday. The first two James Madison wins were not impressive as it beat a horrible Charlotte team by 23 points and defeated Gardner Webb of the FCS by only one touchdown. Great spot with the overreaction value. 10* (125) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is a great go against spot with Boston College coming over its win against Michigan St. in the Red Bandana Game, an annual contest to honor to honor 911 hero Welles Crowther. The Eagles improved to 3-1 with the only loss coming against Missouri by six points which at the time looked like a good loss until Missouri got taken to overtime by Vanderbilt last week. The Boston College secondary once again got exposed, and would have had even worse if Michigan St. did not miss many open throws and they can get lit up in this matchup. Coming off that night win now playing a noon game against a non-power conference will not have them too excited. Western Kentucky is also 3-1 following an upset win over Toledo last week by five points and that could normally be a letdown situation, not in this case playing a Power 4 team. The Hilltoppers only loss came at Alabama 63-0 to open the season but they got their paycheck so we can throw that one out. This is a great game to keep momentum rolling before getting back into C-USA action where they are already 1-0 after a win over UTEP. Even with the Alabama game being factored in where they passed for only 103 yards, the Hilltoppers are No. 20 in the country in passing offense and their 358 ypg in the other three games would have them No. 4 in the country. Live backdoor dog if needed. 10* (143) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is a great buy low/sell high spot with two teams seemingly heading in opposite directions but the line is not telling us that. Navy is coming off a blowout win over Memphis 56-44 at home as it ran all over the Tigers. That was a big motivational game as the Midshipmen felt disrespected as they were getting nine points at home and they certainly proved they should not have been. That gives us the letdown and now they head out on the road for the first time this season. We couple that with the fact they are at Air Force next week in the first leg of the Commander In Chief Trophy so there is the lookahead and this is the perfect situation to sell high coming off that big win with a bigger game on deck. UAB opened the season with an expected blowout win over Alcorn St. but then suffered an inexcusable loss at UL Monroe by 26 points as an 11.5-point favorite. The Blazers did follow that up with a solid performance at Arkansas as they lost by only 10 points as a 22-point underdog. This is where the situation gets even better as they rolled into their bye week following a pair of road losses to think about those for a while and also getting an extra week to prepare for the Navy running game. Offensively, quarterback Jacob Zeno has been efficient with the exception of that bad game against UL Monroe. 79 percent of the money is on Navy because people are thinking this line is too short yet it has not budged. 10* (166) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Michigan is coming off a huge home win over USC that was one of the most anticipated home games in a long time not counting Ohio St. as those teams had never met in the Big House and the Wolverines scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute left to send the Trojans home with a loss in their first ever Big 10 game. Michigan suffered a loss to Texas in its second game and followed that up with a lethargic win over Arkansas St. which was a letdown/lookahead spot and now the Wolverines are in a similar situation off that USC win and then its first road game at Washington on deck in a rematch of the National Championship game last season. Minnesota is now 2-2 following a 31-14 loss against Iowa last week as it squandered a 14-7 halftime lead. The Gophers were coming off back-to-back shutouts albeit against Rhode Island of the FCS and Nevada. Still, those were define building performances no matter who it is and it catches Michigan in a great spot against a team the Gophers have had little success against. Many will consider this line short but it has actually come down as it was up in the 11-12 range for a short time and the power ranking numbers feel this number is just about right. That does not give us much value but this is all about the spot and this is a game the Gophers can hang around against a distracted Michigan team. 10* (195) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Baylor comes in at 2-2 following that improbable loss to Colorado last week and we do not think the Bears will be hanging their heads with an undefeated team coming to town while already sitting 0-1 in the Big 12 Conference. It was a game in awful conditions and it dropped them to 0-2 on the road, the other loss coming at Utah which looks to be the team to beat in the conference unless you want to lump in BYU which we are not. Baylor was shut down on offense against the Utes but it has been solid outside of that but more impressive is the defense as the Bears are No. 28 overall and No. 33 in points allowed and this against a solid schedule ranked No. 36. They will be questioned why they are favored but it is for a reason and this is another where all of the money is on the Cougars and the line has not moved. BYU is coming off a blowout win at home over Kansas St. but it was outgained by over 120 yards so it was a skewed final score as the Cougars used a fumble return for a touchdown as well as a punt return score that was one of the best you will ever see. They opened the season with a win over Southern Illinois of the FCS and the other two wins were nothing special, one against SMU which changed quarterbacks early in the game and the other against a bad Wyoming team. The defense will be tested on the road more than it has in the first two games away from home. 10* (172) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Washington was able to bounce back from its loss in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it defeated Northwestern 24-5 on Saturday for its inaugural Big 10 Conference victory. The Huskies caught a break as the Wildcats were without running back Cam Porter and they were held to only 59 yards rushing and just 112 total yards. Now Washington, which is 3-1, heads out of Seattle for the first time this season to play its first conference road game and this is just a tough spot travelling all the way to the east coast on a short week. They have held their own after losing so much from the playoff team of last season and while Washington St. has been its toughest opponent thus far, Rutgers is right there, just a half-point behind the Cougars in the power ratings. The Scarlet Knights are off to a 3-0 start following a 26-23 win over Virginia Tech on Saturday and they head back home for their conference opener. The three-point Rutgers win was decent but it could have been a lot better. It had a turnover inside the five-yard line, turned it over on fourth down at the one yard line and missed a pair of field goals and it outgained the Hokies 422-320 and the mistakes helped squander a 16-point lead. The Scarlet Knights have taken 93 percent of the money yet the line has not moved and has actually come down in some places. This is a great spot for Rutgers to get this big name at home on a Friday night. 10* (108) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. As dysfunctional as Dallas has looked the last two weeks, this is a spot it thrives in and will bounce back after a pair of ugly home losses. The Cowboys were destroyed by New Orleans two weeks ago and were behind 28-6 in the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore before trying to make a miracle comeback all after opening the season with a win of what we know now is a bad Cleveland team. This fits what Dallas did last season as well, roll over the bad teams and lose to the good teams. The Cowboys did lose to Arizona early in the season but in their other eight games against non-playoff teams, they won all of those by an average of 27 ppg. This is the perfect opponent to get right, at least for now. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season as they overcame a 7-0 deficit in the first 11 seconds to defeat the Browns 21-15. They opened the season with losses against Minnesota and Washington with the former not looking as bad now and to their credit, there has been progress. However, they have not faced a decent quarterback the last two games and while Dak Prescott does not have a ton around him this year, he will be able to take apart a poor Giants secondary. He has thrived in these spots as well, going 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) as a divisional favorite. The defense has fallen to No. 27 in EPA but will be able to pressure Daniel Jones through a bad offensive line. The Cowboys make it 14 wins in the last 15 meetings. 10* (101) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Army is coming off a win over Rice which is an awful team with its other two losses coming against Sam Houston St. and a bad Houston team and the Black Knights are now 3-0. Their other two wins have been against Lehigh of the FCS and Florida Atlantic which just got destroyed by Connecticut and while they are playing another bad team here, the line has been overadjusted. Army was favored at home by 7.5 over Rice and now it is favored by 13.5 points on the road and the power ranking difference between Rice and Temple is only six points. Overall, Army has played a schedule ranked No. 174 and while this game will not make it any stronger, it is about value and overreactions. Temple is off to a 1-3 start and it coming off its first win of the season over Utah St. at home 45-29 and the offense has now improved in each of its last four games. Part of the reason for the offensive resurgence has coincided with Evan Simon taking over quarterback and he had his coming out game against the Aggies as he threw for 271 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Owls have played a schedule ranked No. 49 as its opened with road games at Oklahoma and undefeated Navy and those have skewed some of the numbers. They are going to have to deal with the Army rushing game that has gone off but had its worst game against Rice, the equivalent of the Temple rushing defense. 10* (104) Temple Owls

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Like a number of teams this week, the Bengals are in desperation mode to avoid a 0-3 start which makes it nearly impossible to make the postseason. Of the 168 teams that started 0-3 between 1990-2023, only four have managed to get into the postseason and Cincinnati has been here before being one of the slowest starting teams in recent years. Including this season, the Bengals are 1-11 over the last six years in their first two games, the only win coming in 2021 against Minnesota. They have won their last three Game Three games and they are in a good spot playing on Monday night as 0-2 teams playing at home on Monday night cover at a 71 percent clip. Washington picked up its first win of the season under quarterback Jaylen Daniels with a 21-18 win over the Giants, needing a field goal as time expired for the victory. That was the story the whole game however as the Commanders had to settle for seven field goals as they finished 0-6 from the redzone and that is not ideal here against a solid redzone defense as the Bengals have held their first two opponents 2-6 inside the redzone. This game has blowout written all over it and that will be the popular public play. We saw some early line movement as this number went to 8-8.5 on Monday but came back to 7.5 on Tuesday and has remained steady despite over 80 percent of the money being on Cincinnati. The Bengals will likely get a lot of public money on Monday so it is wise to get the 7-7.5 now. 10* (480) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta was a big disappointment in Week One against Pittsburgh, namely the offense that managed only 10 points, and last week against Philadelphia, the offense had just 15 points going into the final minute so that is a concern but this is the spot for it to come around. However, what did change was play calling as Kirk Cousins looked a lot more comfortable and the Falcons actually finished with the No. 5 Success Rate last week of all teams. One reason to like the Falcons offense in this spot as they go up against a Kansas City defense that is ranked No. 30 in Defensive rushing EPA and their secondary is not what it used to be as well. The Chiefs have escaped twice and this is not going to keep happening. They are coming off two emotional wins over AFC rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati and now have to travel for the first time in what is going to be a crazy environment. Patrick Mahomes struggled last week with an 80.6 passer rating and on the season, he has three touchdowns and three interceptions. Not exactly Mahomes-like. While the Atlanta defense has been a liability for a few years, what has been good this season has been that defense even though the metrics do not show it in EPA or DVOA. They do enough again to pull the upset as underdogs. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. Detroit is one of a few teams that are looking to bounce back from losses despite being the better team. The Lions outgained Tampa Bay by 246 yards but they were surprisingly horrible in the rezone and quarterback Jared Goff had a bad game. He has been one of the best bounce back quarterbacks in recent games as he rarely puts up consecutive poor passer ratings. This is one of the rare non-dome games for the Lions and they are known for not performing as well on grass but we are not buying that in this spot, especially at this number that has come down below a key number as people are buying into the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a blowout win over the Rams but it was facing a team ravaged with injuries already this early into the season. The Cardinals opened with a loss in Buffalo but it was close through as they actually blew a significant lead and had their chances late to pull it out even though they averaged only 4.8 yppl. That close loss to the Bills is also playing into the line and the line move as they are 2-0 against the number. Kyler Murray looked great last week but will be facing a much better defense as they will not be putting up 489 yards again this week. This is a good buy low spot based on the early overreactions which we get every season. 10* (469) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. Two desperate teams square off here with the Ravens being in the more desperate spot. They are 0-2 despite having chances to win both games late yet they have not covered which puts them in that rare situation where they have the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL and have outgained both opponents and by an average of 111 ypg. These are the spots quarterback Lamar Jackson thrives in as he has dominated the NFC and is a crazy 15-2-1 ATS when he is not favored by more than a field goal. He faces a Dallas defense that was gashed for 432 yards last week and while he will have a great day, getting Derrick Henry more involved will be a benefit as well. The Cowboys have had one of the top rosters over the last few seasons but that is clearly not the case this season. They do have stars on both sides of the ball but it thins out considerably and we can lump Dak Prescott into that as well as he has produced passer ratings of 85.3 and 78.3 this season and will be facing a Baltimore defense that is No. 22 is Defensive EPA so they will be out to get right and will be playing with extreme intensity in this high profile spot but more do to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Dallas has no running game, averaging just 3.7 ypc while the offense as a whole has put up only three touchdowns through its first two games. 10* (471) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Bryce Young experiment is over in Carolina and because of that, we will be riding the Panthers as they now have a competent quarterback under center. We excused Young for his performance Week One but he was nearly as bad last week and head coach Dave Canales saw enough with a chance to possibly still save the season. Andy Daulton is not going to put a lot of scares in opposing defenses but he has been more than capable in the last two seasons in New Orleans and here where he has thrown for 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The team as a whole is going to step up because it was doubtful anyone believed in Young and a chance to improve gives them more motivation. The Raiders are coming off the big upset win over Baltimore to improve to 1-1 and are now in Las Vegas for their home opener but how serious can they take this team coming in. Las Vegas was outgained in both games including getting outyarded by 123 yards last week. We are not comparing Baltimore and Carolina we are seeing a 15-point swing and covering a big number is something the Raiders co with their offense. Gardner Minshew has looked good with close to identical games of 95.1 and 94.7 ratings but the Raiders are ranked No. 29 in Offensive EPA and backing a team that low is bad news. 10* (465) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Tampa Bay was outgained by 246 yards last week and was still able to beat Detroit to move to 2-0. The Lions kicked themselves in the foot numerous times in coming off a rare loss when you outgained your opponent by nearly 250 yards. The Buccaneers dominated their first game at home against Washington with a rookie quarterback and now catch another rookie quarterback at home but they are getting too much credit here as they are favored by 2.5 points more against Bo Nix and they were against Jaylen Daniels. They were near the top of the Luck Rankings last season and seem to be heading that way again but their luck will eventually run out. Nix has no doubt struggled but Denver has been competitive in both games, losing the two by one possession each. He did look better last week despite a pair of interceptions and ended up with 246 yards against a very good defense. He will now be facing a defense that is already banged up so he will catch a break here. Speaking of Luck Rankings, Denver is the unluckiest team to start the season, albeit a short sample size. As of Saturday, the majority of the money is on the Buccaneers yet the line has actually come down in some places and always love being on the side of a reverse line move when the public is all over the side. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our MWC Game of the Year. New Mexico is off to a 0-3 start and is in the argument for being the worst FBS team which we knew coming into the season it would be in the running. Only three starters are back on offense which is not good considering they averaged 27.3 ppg, their most since 2016 and they more than doubled their output from 2022. Devon Dampier took over at quarterback and he has been adequate but not close to being able to pick up the slack for a horrible defense. The Lobos are also working in an entirely new offensive line. The defense is dead last in total yards and rushing yards and second last in points allowed so this is the ideal spot for a Fresno St. offense to get going as it has shown some struggles. Quarterback Mikey Keene has had a slow start to the season as he has only five touchdowns and four interceptions as his efficiency has not been great. Running back Malik Sherrod is also off to a slow start as he is only averaging 3.7 ypc. Take note that these two players are both First or Second Team All-MWC. The Bulldogs have been solid on defense but a lot of that is due to the competition which of course does not get any better here. They are No. 39 in total defense, allowing fewer than 300 ypg and we just cannot see New Mexico getting anything going similar to how the Bulldogs shut down New Mexico St. last week. 10* (351) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic finally got into the win column and we think it can build from that. It was a rough start for Florida Atlantic which was expected to turn things around following four straight losing seasons but there is still plenty of time and it started last week in the 38-20 win over FIU. The Owls had their chances at Michigan St. but lost a tough six-point game and last week was even worse as they got crushed by the Army rushing game, allowing 405 yards on the ground with the offense being able to do nothing once again. That offense got going last week while the defense did its job similar to the Michigan St. team and they now face another poor offense. The Owls have struggled to generate havoc but they are allowing just three points per opportunity. Connecticut lost to Duke last week to fall to 1-2 with their only win coming against Merrimack of the FCS and now the Huskies go from a 17-point underdog to a favorite. The venue change is obviously factored into that but this is too much of an adjustment. The Huskies have used balanced play calling which is not a good thing in this case as they have completed only 51.1 percent of their passes for an average of 7.8 yards per attempt and a 47 percent passing success rate. Defensively Connecticut has been adequate but that game against Merrimack is skewing those numbers after allowing 50 points to Maryland in their opener. 10* (401) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Liberty is off to a 3-0 start but has not looked great in doing so as it has failed to cover in any of the three games with a lot of that due to early line inflation because of the expectations coming into the season. Now because of the winless ATS Streak, we are seeing an opening line adjustment the other way and in the process, we have a reverse line move with 71 percent of the money on East Carolina but the line has gone up. The schedule has been light for Liberty and that is partially the reason for the winless cover start as Liberty has been favored by 22 or more points in each games and we are seeing that crash down. The Flames have won a program record 15 straight regular season games following the win over UTEP last week. East Carolina is coming off their first loss of the season and it was a tough one it fell to Appalachian St. 21-19 after blowing a 16-0 first quarter lead and that will be a tough one to recover from. The Pirates won their only road game at Old Dominion by that was by just six points against a pretty poor Monarchs team. Turnovers have been a big issue for East Carolina as quarterback Jake Garcia has thrown eight interceptions to just five touchdowns while completing under 65 percent of his passes and the Pirates have 12 turnovers overall. Even though Liberty is 3-0, there is too much of an overreaction with this number. 10* (400) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Memphis coming off a big win over Florida St. last week and while that would have looked like a huge upset coming into the season, it is safe to say that the Seminoles are a bad football team. Still, coming off a big road win over a Power 4 team present the letdown aspect and now having to hit the road again. The line is inflated because of the win and the fact the Tigers are 3-0 against the number with the other two wins coming against North Alabama of the FCS and Troy which is in a rebuilding season having lost a huge amount of starters and its head coach. Navy is 2-0 but has hardly been tested with wins over Bucknell and Temple. The Midshipmen are coming off a bye week and have yet to leave Annapolis which is a big early season travel edge. This is an experienced Navy team with 14 starters back and while they have not played a tough schedule, they have gone back to their roots of a potent rushing game as they have averaged 280.5 ypg after struggling last season with 194.6 ypg which was the worst since 2001. The defense was outmatched against Notre Dame, USF and SMU last season but held its own outside of those games, finishing No. 47 in total defense and No. 39 in scoring defense and has seven starters back with the back end being the strength which is big in this matchup. 10* (398) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Florida is off to a 1-2 start with head coach Billy Napier squarely on the hot seat and this is surely a must win contest. The Gators are coming off a loss against Texas A&M where they fell behind 20-0 and could not recover but they have a great matchup here which looks to be decided by the running game. They had only 52 rushing yards against the Aggies which have a decent rushing defense and they catch a big break here. Mississippi St. is allowing 213.7 ypg on the ground which is No. 121 in the country and that is with playing Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. The Bulldogs allowed 346 yards against Arizona St. and 169 yards against Toledo where they lost by 24 points as a double digit favorite and the line has moved accordingly despite the Florida struggles. On the other side, Mississippi St. is No. 113 in rushing offense with 97.7 ypg, one of only seven major conference teams that are averaging fewer than 100 ypg on the ground. The Bulldogs do have a quarterback edge looking at the early numbers but they have not been able to translate that into better production. Mississippi St. is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog when coming off a double-digit loss and with both teams in desperation mode, we favor the team with the better roster and big edges at the line of scrimmage. 10* (391) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Washington St. is coming off a big win last week in the Apple Cup which was a huge motivational game and it now sets up the letdown spot. This situation has not treated the Cougars well in the recent past as they have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games coming off Washington and they have another rival on deck going up against Boise St. The Cougars are ranked No. 80 in Rushing Success Rate and No. 60 in Passing Success Rate so despite the 3-0 start, they have not looked great on offense and this is with putting up 70 points against Portland St. We cannot be sold on this offense to try and over a big number playing a confident team. San Jose St. also comes in undefeated at 3-0 following a win over Air Force in its MWC opener so while that could always be looked as this being a letdown spot, it is not based on the opponent. The Spartans other two wins were against Sacramento St. and Kennesaw St. so the schedule has not been great which is skewing the numbers but we have faith in first year head coach Ken Niumatalolo who had success at Navy in the similar underdog role and he is getting it done with a totally different style. Quarterback Emmett Brown has been awesome in the passing game as the Spartans are ranked No. 22 in Passing Success Rate with him putting up a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. He faces a Cougars defense that has been susceptible against the pass as they are No. 127 in passing defense, allowing 301 ypg and that always gives the underdog, especially a big underdog, a chance to stay within margin. 10* (309) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Jets picked up their first win of the season with a front door cover late in the fourth quarter and are now back in New York for their home opener. This will be the first true home game for Aaron Rodgers after leaving the opener last season on the first series and there are the doubters after a couple not so great productive games. The Jets defense was to blame in the opener as they could not stop the 49ers which forced a game of catch up that they could not match up with. There will not be that issue tonight as they will be facing a similar offense as last week when the Titans were able to gain just 300 total yards with the help of more poor decision making from Will Levis. Jacoby Brissett is a step above but moving on the road after a home opener loss to this environment will be a test. The Patriots have owned this series with a 15-1 advantage over the last 16 meetings but that makes do difference with the rosters being completely different. The Patriots defense is the focal point. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati in the opener but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Last week, Seattle could get nothing going on the ground but Geno Smith had a huge game through the air as he passed for 327 yards on a 75 percent completion clip and this is where the Jets offense can bust out especially with the ability of Breece Hall in both the passing and running game. The lookahead line was 7 and came down most places Sunday night and has settled in at 6-6.5 and it is at a number that is completely skewed from the numbers of both of the games from last week. 10* (302) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Star Attraction. One of the big public sleepers could fall to 0-2 despite not allowing a touchdown in Week One as the Falcons and new quarterback Kirk Cousins failed to get it done against the Steelers. The same Steelers team that is 2-0 having score just one touchdown. Atlanta is in a spot that has historically been great as it comes into Week Two coming off an outright loss as a favorite and now being an underdog. Covers by Cleveland and Cincinnati moved these teams to 67-44-4 ATS since 1980 and this includes a 34-16-4 ATS run when playing against a non-division team. We are now seeing a nine-point swing and this against a team coming off a horrible travel spot. The Philadelphia defense allowed 414 total yards (251 passing yards and 163 rushing yards) in the season opener and it is a defense that went into last season on paper was one of the best and is not. The Eagles finished No. 30 in Defensive EPA, No. 26 passing and No. 28 rushing, and this is a great time for Atlanta to face them coming off that game. The addition of Saquon Barkley makes this offense legit at both levels but A.J. Brown is out tonight and that is a big loss to take away some of the balance of that offense. 10* (291) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. If it was possible for a 2-15 team to look worse than that in the first game the following season, Carolina may have accomplished it. The Panthers had nothing going on offense while the defense could not stop a pretty average offense and they are currently the fourth least bet team behind Las Vegas, New Orleans and Chicago. Head coach Dave Canales called himself out after the loss and we can expect a different team in their home opener. Looking back at least season, the Panthers have scored 10 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games but this spot could not be better. The Chargers won an ugly game against the Raiders that was a skewed final with a questionable fourth down call in the fourth quarter from Las Vegas that swayed the game. We refer to ugly as Los Angeles had more rushing attempts than passing attempts and this is likely going to be the script this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The early lookahead line in the summer was 3 and then opened at most other books last Sunday at 5.5 or 6, went up from there and has now gone back down to 5 despite the handle. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 or more points and are underdogs of four points or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5 percent). 10* (266) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. If there is one player on a roster to move a line, it is the quarterback but often time the numbers are moved too much which is the case here. Green Bay opened as the favorite before the game last Friday and as soon as Jordan Love went down at the end of the game, this one came off the board and when put back up, the line flipped and we are now seeing a 6-7 point swing in some spots which is too much for this quarterback. There has been talk about Love not being completely ruled out for this week as he is officially listed as questionable but we are not banking on him playing. The Packers lost a tough one in Brazil against the Eagles and are a non-public home underdog this week with over 70 percent of the money on the other side. Indianapolis came through for us last week against Houston with the backdoor cover despite getting outgained by over 100 yards. The Colts ran only 41 plays with quarterback Anthony Richardson accounting for 25 of those and running back Jonathan Taylor running for the other 16 so the all or nothing offense was on full display. Defensively, the Colts were not good as they allowed 213 yards rushing which fits into the gameplan of Green Bay to utilize Josh Jacobs and not have to rely on Malik Willis. He has had a full week of practice and this group is going to rally around him in what is already a big game for Green Bay to avoid the 0-2 start. 10* (272) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We saw this number open at 6-6.5 and it has remained steady throughout the week despite early money on the Cowboys. Dallas came away with the road win in Cleveland despite only 265 yards of offense and that is what will be keeping the majority off of them when the public money comes in despite being a typical public bet team. The Cowboys did it with their defense as they limited the Browns to 230 yards of offense and there is very little difference between the offenses of Cleveland and New Orleans despite what the Saints did last week. The 47 points scored were their most in a season opener in over 40 years but now they face a defense that finished No. 5 in DVOA last season and will be bringing pressure on quarterback Derek Carr all game. Cleveland was without both starting tackles last week which made a huge difference but the Saints entered the season with the lowest rated offensive line and could be without both of their starting tackles as well so there is no difference heading into this week. There certainly are questions with the Dallas offense but the Browns pass rush compared to the Saints is not comparable. Additionally, their secondary is banged up already and the home opener for newly inked CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott should put on a show coming off their playoff loss last season, snapping a 16-game home winning streak. 10* (268) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. New England is coming off the biggest upset of Week One as it went into Cincinnati and came away with a six-point win as a 7.5-point underdog which added to the Bengals notoriety of slow season starts. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Offensively, it was an expected poor showing as New England had just 290 yards of offense including 120 yards through the air and Seattle will see a similar situation as it did with Bo Nix who threw the ball 42 times and had just 138 yards passing. The Bengals receiving group was part of the problem as there was no chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase missing a lot of time and Andrei Iosivas being the No. 2. The situation for Seattle is different despite the average game from Geno Smith against the Broncos. Had New England come away with the win last week, this line would be well over 3 but it is hanging there despite Seattle being the early action side and the Patriots seeing over a 10-point line swing. This is not the Patriots spot as they are 1-12 against the number in their last 13 games getting four or fewer points. 10* (277) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Star Attraction. We are not sure what happened to the Jets defense last week but they were on the field way too much, 25 of the first 37 minutes, and that does not bode well for a team coming off a short week. That being said, playing against one of the best rosters in the NFL and now facing one of the worst gives them a huge edge. Tennessee possesses one of the best receiving groups in the league but it has a quarterback that cannot get them the ball as Will Levis continues to regress. Two of his first four starts were outstanding last season against Atlanta and Jacksonville but his highest passer rating since then has been 86.2 with his opener this season being 52.5. Aaron Rodgers was not horrible with his first full game with the Jets, he could not just get into a rhythm with the offense possessing the ball for just over 21 minutes. The Tennessee defense is a solid unit but the fact they allowed 24 unanswered points against a quarterback that failed to score an offensive touchdown is a huge concern. Tennessee blew a 17-0 lead last week against Chicago becoming the second team in the last 69 games (66-2-1 ATS) as an underdog of four or more points to lose after having a 17 or more point lead. This is a huge game for the Jets which have one of the worst early schedules playing their first two games on the road and then having to play Thursday in Week Three. 10* (279) New York Jets

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. California came through for us last weekend and while it was as much of a play on the Golden Bears, it was just as much of a play against Auburn with the Tigers up to their old tricks again. This is another overreaction spot with the Golden Bears now seeing a 31 to 32-point swing in one week and while opponent and venue are taken into consideration, it is too much of a move with this being a letdown as well as a lookahead as California heads back east next week for their first ever ACC game as it travels to Florida St. The Golden Bears are 2-0 but the offense has not been great as they have averaged just 306.5 ypg which is No. 106 and that is with playing a team from the FCS in their opener. The defense has been much better as they have allowed only 13.5 ppg and while that average is not going to last, it is nearly 20 ppg better than last season. This is just the sixth time they have been double-digit favorites over an FBS team since 2019 and they have gone 0-5 ATS in the previous five. San Diego St. is 1-1 to open the season following getting shutout last week against Oregon St. and that is also playing into this number. Head coach Brady Hoke retired after last season and Sean Lewis was hired after serving as the offensive coordinator at Colorado last season. He has shifted the offense from a running style to a more Air Raid system to mixed results obviously as the new system is taking time to break in. The Aztecs have relied on running back Marquez Cooper who is a 1,000-yard transfer from Ball St. and he worked with Lewis at Kent St. and he has put up 276 yards on 6.9 ypc. Their defense kept them in the game last week as they did not allow a point on seven straight drives and will bank on that while getting more from the offense. While the Aztecs are moving toward that fast offense, they will try and keep the defense off the field as much as possible which hurt them late last Saturday. 10* (205) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season after 10 seasons with the Cowboys where he compiled a 61-60 record and took them to a bowl game in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. He went out strong with a 9-4 record with those nine victories the most in his tenure and now Jay Sawvel takes over after serving as the defensive coordinator under Bohl for the last four seasons. This is a strong program with a toughness on both sides so we expected the transition should be seamless but it has been anything but that. The Cowboys got boat raced at Arizona St. in their opener as the offense could get nothing going with a total of 118 yards of offense and the Sun Devils scored touchdowns on an interception return and a fumble return. While Wyoming lost its home opener last week against Idaho, it looked a lot better and the Vandals are one of the best teams in the FCS as they lost at Oregon by only 10 points. This is the buy with an overreaction line through two games. BYU pulled off the upset over SMU last Friday as it benefitted from the Mustangs abruptly benching quarterback Preston Stone after throwing only four passes and the backup Kevin Jennings leading SMU to five field goals. The Cougars are now 2-0 after beating Southern Illinois in their opener and are in a tough spot coming off that upset win and a game against Kansas St. on deck to open conference play. This is the time to fade when a team is feeling too good about themselves as this is the sell high point especially facing a team that the public is down on. We are far from sold on this offense as quarterback Jake Retzlaff has completed only 60 percent of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and two interceptions and the Cougars will not be able to rely on their running games as the depth at running back will be tested this week, as the top two players, LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati, are doubtful to play against Wyoming. The defense has improved but that unit is also still a question. 10* (202) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We lost a tough one with Maryland last week as the Terrapins blew a touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter as they allowed a 77-yard touchdown pass that tied the game and eventually lost on a field goal as time expired. As mentioned in that analysis, the weakness of the Maryland defense is their secondary and we did not think Aidan Chiles could take advantage yet he did on that one play but he also threw three interceptions and they have a better matchup this week. The front seven is still strong and faces an offense that has yet to be tested. The one big question of offense was how Maryland was going to replace All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa but Billy Edwards has been great through two games, throwing for 564 yards while completing 75.4 percent of his passes and he has formed great chemistry with the top two returning receivers Tai Felton and Kaden Prather who have already combined for 25 catches. Virginia is off to a 2-0 start which is already one win shy of its win total from both 2022 and 2023 but one victory came against Richmond of the FCS and the Cavaliers needed to rally from 13 points down in the fourth quarter and scored the game winning touchdown with two minutes left last week against Wake Forest. The passing game was very solid from quarterback Anthony Colandrea but that came against a Demon Deacons secondary which had a preseason ranking that was dead last in the ACC. He still threw two picks against a secondary that had only eight all of last season. Defensively, Virginia has been suspect as expected as they returned starters from a very bad defense and the experience can be just as bad as it can be good with the balance between poor play and experience masking each other. The results on the scoreboard from last week are dictating the line with early overreactions from the upset of Maryland and the 2-0 start for Virginia. 10* (199) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS as part of our Late Triple Play. Indiana football has never been relevant as it has never had a double-digit winning season and has won nine games only once but all it could take to turn a program around is the right coach and the Hoosiers made one of the best offseason hires. They got Curt Cignetti from James Madison where he compiled a 52-10 record in five seasons including a 19-5 record at the FBS level. The 3-9 record last season, which included a win against Indiana St. of the FCS and a win over 2-10 Akron that took four overtimes, was not surprising as the Hoosiers brought back only eight starters but now have 21 of 22 starters back which does include many transfer starts with a lot of those from James Madison. They are 2-0 which is the sixth time in the last 10 seasons they have started at least 2-0 and while the previous five resulted in a bowl game four times, they lost all four and this year it just seems different. While Indiana is trending up, UCLA is going the other way. Last season, the offense dropped by close to 13 ppg from 2022 and while seven starters are back, there is no one of significance as of the four preseason All-Big Ten teams, they have only one player on those and that is a 4th Team wide receiver. Ethan Garbers takes over the full time job at quarterback but he is nothing special. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy. They opened the season with a win over Hawaii as they needed three field goals to close out the scoring and won 16-10. That game was in Hawaii and UCLA is now off a rare Week Two bye which was an awful time for this inexperienced team as it needs reps. This is the home opener but it is in one of the worst home environments in the Power 4. 10* (193) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. UCF had a rollercoaster season last year yet rallied late to become bowl eligible and it easily could have been a better season as they were on the plus side in yardage differential in Big 12 games despite being 3-6 as three of the losses were by a combined four points. They have 15 starters back including seven on an offense that finished No. 3 in the nation and while they lose both quarterbacks that split time, they got KJ Jefferson who came in from Arkansas after starting 38 games for the Razorbacks and his duel threat ability will fit well while RJ Harvey is a potential 1st Team All-Big 12 running back. Jefferson has not been great passing the ball through two games but he has not had to be, throwing it only 29 times as the Knights lead the country in rushing with 419 ypg thanks to Harvey who has rushed for 268 yards on 30 carries (8.9 ypc) behind a very underrated offensive line. While the schedule has played into this but it lines up with what TCU has played as well. The Horned Frogs are also off to a 2-0 start but it has not been as impressive as they struggled against a bad Stanford team to win their opener by a touchdown but that was on the road to their credit. They rolled past Long Island of the FCS 45-0 last week but LIU is one of the worst teams in that subdivision so this will be the biggest test thus far. Quarterback Josh Hoover took over last season at the midway point and was pretty solid but went just 2-4 and has gotten off to a good start this year but against a couple rough defenses. They lost their top running back from last season and have averaged only 112 ypg on the ground behind one of the worst offensive lines in the Big 12. The defense has already faced one dual-threat quarterback in Ashton Daniels of Stanford and the Horned Frogs had mixed results as he rushed for 87 yards and while the passing was not great, Jefferson is a big upgrade from Daniels so they could have big troubles here. 10* (187) Central Florida Knights

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES as part of our Late Triple Play. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a win at UMass as the Eagles had a comfortable 28-7 lead late in the fourth quarter before the Minutemen scored a touchdown in garbage time on a possession that accounted for 75 of their 329 total yards. The Eagles went on the road again last week to take on Washington and while the final score ended up 30-9, it was a one possession game going into the final minute of the first half. Eastern Michigan finally heads back to Ypsilanti to the gray turf for their home opener as it has ground to make up but could easily head into their bye week at 3-2. Head coach Chris Creighton has done an awesome job at turning this program around from a bottom feeder to a consistent team that has found a winning culture. Quarterback Cole Snyder is in his first season after starting two years at Buffalo and is still learning the system and has a better matchup than the one he faced last week against a Power 4 defense. Jacksonville St. is coming off a very successful first season at the FBS level as it went 9-4 including an inaugural bowl win and while it came in with a relatively high win total of 7.5, we expected some regression with only nine starters coming back and the Gamecocks have been blown out in their first two games. Granted those were against tougher opponents than what they will see this week, there is a lot to clean up. Quarterback Tyler Huff who was the SoCon Player of the Year last season has found the jump to the FBS level a challenge. The defense was the strength last season but they lost a ton of talent and it has shown by allowing 55 and 49 points. Again, they take a step down in class but the confidence level is low and this is not a great situation facing a team in their home opener and one that will be out for revenge from a 21-0 loss last season as the Eagles were held to just 111 total yards and now laying a short price to avenge that defeat. 10* (172) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS as part of our Late Triple Play. The Warriors brought some momentum into this year as they won three of their last four games and opened this season with a win over Delaware St. of the FCS and while they were not close to covering the massive number, it was clear they kept the playbook closed. They followed that up with a near miss against UCLA but they were able to cover the big number and have now had a week off to get ready for this one and improve their offense which sputtered against the Bruins late. Hawaii brings back eight starters on an offense led by quarterback Brayden Schager who threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns and has his top six receivers back but did toss 14 picks and needs to be more consistent. This is the first road game for the Warriors and coming off the island can sometimes be an issue but the extra time is a big benefit for any sort of acclimation. Seven starters are back on defense that improved last season as it went along and allowing only 27 points through two games is great progress. Sam Houston is off to a 1-1 start as it rolled over Rice in its opener but followed that up with a 31-point loss at UCF last week and now the Bearkats are playing their home opener as an overpriced favorite. The UCF defense held the Sam Houston offense to only 286 yards of total offense and just 67 yards on the ground last week and the quarterback situation did not help itself. Hunter Watson started the first game and while he did not turn the ball over, he was not efficient and he again started last week but was pulled after throwing for only 82 yards with two interceptions. Jase Bauer was better as he tossed a touchdown in garbage time so nothing has been solved since the two started battling in fall camp. The defense has struggled through the first two games and they are an inexperienced unit with Hawaii having a great shot at taking advantage of a poor rushing defense that can open up the passing game. 10* (177) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Pt2. Florida International opened the season with a 31-7 loss at Indiana and the Panthers should be 0-2 at this point if not for a mistake prone Central Michigan team that came calling last week. They were outgained 369-309 but had six takeaways which made their 52-16 win very misleading and this is the sell high spot as that victory was nothing more than an anomaly that falsely affects the immediate line going forward. It has been five straight losing seasons for Florida International and while this season was not expected to be a complete rebuild, trying to improve upon back-to-back 4-8 seasons is hard to do with little talent from a rich football recruiting area when its own class came in No. 109. The Panthers are averaging only 245.5 ypg which is No. 120 out of 134 teams while their defense is No. 91 so looking at point differential is not the right way to go about it. This is the big rival of the season even though they have not faced each other since 2022 and the Owls have the big home edge. It has been a rough start for Florida Atlantic which was expected to turn things around following four straight losing seasons but there is still plenty of time but it has to start here after losing its first two games. The Owls had their chances at Michigan St. but lost a tough six-point game and last week was even worse as they got crushed by the Army rushing game, allowing 405 yards on the ground with the offense being able to do nothing once again. This is the ideal turnaround situation as we are getting the opposite opportunity to take a buy low team that is 0-2 which no one wants to back. The home opener was a disaster with its 12:00 kickoff time in the oppressive heat which brought in maybe one-third capacity of 30,000 FAU Stadium but things are expected to turn around this week with a late kickoff in this rivalry. This game is huge as the Owls have Connecticut and Wagner on deck so a 3-2 record going back into AAC action is essential. 10* (166) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. The Apple Cup comes early this season and Washington St. has had this game circled since the season finale last year for a couple reasons. The Cougars are 2-0 following a blowout win over Portland St. of the FCS and then another big win last week over Texas Tech as it completely shut down the Red Raiders Air Raid offense, allowing just 16 points with its bend do not break defense. They will not be tested like that here or like they were last season against the Huskies even though they did a good job of shutting them down then as well. Last season, the Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal so there is revenge from that and they of course have not forgotten the Washington move to the Big 10, leaving the Cougars in limbo. We are sure what this Washington team really is as it brought only two starters back on offense and just four back on defense and the Huskies are coming off a pair of wins by 32 and 21 points but they were not tested at home against Weber St. and Eastern Michigan. They are listed as the home team here but they are not playing on their campus field at Husky Stadium as this one is at Lumen Field, home of the Seahawks so while it is in Seattle, it will not be the same environment. The big complaint from this team is that they were once again snubbed by the AP voters but do not deserve any sort of ranking at this point. They have started slow in both games and while that should come around eventually with the new personnel, this is not the spot in a big rivalry game with the motivational edge being on the other side in our opinion. Mississippi St. transfer quarterback Will Rogers has looked good in his first two starts but now will be tested. 10* (137) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Pt1. West Virginia came up small for us two weeks ago against Penn St. as it could not take advantage of a lengthy weather delay that could have changed the momentum that Penn St. had in its favor but the Nittany Lions were able to pull away for the easy win. The Mountaineers rebounded last week in a 49-14 win over a good Albany team from the FCS as they regained some confidence, notably quarterback Garrett Greene who tossed his first three touchdowns of the season. This is just the third meeting of the Backyard Brawl after an 11-year hiatus but this is still a bitter rivalry and this is the best West Virginia team since its revival. The Mountaineers come in as the favorite as they should be but they come in as a short favorite as our two sets of ratings have them at -5.5 and -10.5 so catching anything under a field goal is great. While it is a big rivalry, Pittsburgh does not have a big home field edge playing all of its home games at an NFL stadium. Things were looking good for Cincinnati last week as it had a 12-point lead late in the third quarter but decided to play some prevent football and allowed the Panthers to come all the way back for the victory. That was a huge momentum win for Pittsburgh as it is now 2-0 and their offensive attack, led by quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid, is averaging 41.5 ppg through two weeks. We are not sold on this offense however as the Panthers averaged 20.2 ppg last season and their early numbers are skewed by playing Kent St. in the first game. The defensive numbers are also skewed based on that opponent and also the fact the Bearcats decided to take their foot off the gas and go vanilla. The defense was bad in their 3-9 season in 2023 and now they will be facing their toughest offense that has scored 30 or more points in eight of their last 10 games going back to last season, the only exceptions coming against Oklahoma St. and Penn St. 10* (141) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Central Michigan got absolutely embarrassed down in Miami as they lost to Florida International 52-16 as a favorite no less in what was probably the most misleading final over the Week Two slate. The Chippewas actually outgained the Panthers 369-309, had seven more first downs and close to a nine-minute possession advantage but the Panthers forced the Chippewas into a total of six turnovers including a program-tying record five interceptions and a fumble recovery on a punt. Basically, we can throw this game out as all it does is add a defeat into the loss column and add to their value going forward based on the final score because that is what everyone is going to see and pay attention to which is the wrong thing to do. It was a tough loss for Central Michigan as it could have used that winnable game with a brutal MAC schedule upcoming and it will not get any easier here but our concern is not about any outright win but the number the Chippewas are catching coming off that skewed final score. Illinois meanwhile is in a horrible spot as it is coming off an upset over Kansas 23-17 as 5.5-point underdogs and the game played out the same as the Central Michigan game, only the opposite way. The Illini were outgained 327-271 but benefitted from a 5-1 turnover advantage which included an interception returned for a score for one of its two touchdowns. This is where the overreaction comes into play as the top line shows an upset that really never should have happened going up against a team coming off getting upset that never should have happened. In the 18-team Big 10 Conference, Illinois was pegged to finish between No. 12 and No. 14 so this is not a very good team and not a team that should be laying over three possessions over any FBS team that has a pulse. Quarterback Luke Altmyer looked solid against the Panthers of the FCS in his opener but struggled against the Jayhawks and he is not one to back when laying a big number knowing the fact he did not cover one game as a favorite last season and this is the biggest of them all. 10* (117) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Florida St. is coming off a bye week which was probably needed more than any other team in the country following a pair of losses as a double-digit favorite in each game to open the season. Now is the time to buy low with the Seminoles as no one is backing this team and that is already being shown with the handle as 94 percent of the early tickets and 91 percent of the early money has come in on Memphis. It can also be argued that no other team has missed its quarterback from last season more than Florida St. as Jordan Travis was coming off a great season while DJ Uiagalelei has started slow and not gotten a grasp of the offense, another good time for the bye week to work on getting a better feel. Now while they are playing another solid team, they go out of conference for the first time this season and laying a manageable number in what has turned into a must game as while it does not help them in the ACC picture but just gives them some needed confidence with conference action starting back up next week. Memphis is 2-0 with wins over North Alabama of the FCS and Troy, which is going through a rebuild with just four starters back so the Tigers have not been tested. They came in as the favorites to win the AAC but it is far from a great conference so having played the No. 198 ranked schedule after two games does not give us much of how good they are with their 78-17 scoring differential being skewed. Offensively, they have not missed a beat after finishing No. 16 in total offense and No. 6 in scoring offense last season. Defensively, they have looked equally good but again, they have played no one and that is from a defense that was No. 95 in points allowed and No. 112 in total defense last season so the fact that it has not been tested puts the linemakers in a corner as they cannot inflate the number because even more money will pour in on the Tigers so they are setting it low despite this being only their third road game against a Power Conference team since 2016, the first two being losses by 20 and 26 points. 10* (120) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. While these two teams are in the same conference, this game actually will not count for their conference record because it was agreed to be in an out of conference matchup while Arizona was still in the Pac 12. Kansas St. rolled over Tennessee Martin in its season opener and then got away with one last week at Tulane as the Green Wave had their game-tying touchdown taken off the board due to a very suspect offensive pass interference call. That was followed up with a non-defensive pass interference call on the Wildcats and they eventually sealed the game with an interception. The offense was average as the running game was solid behind D.J. Giddens but quarterback Avery Johnson did not do much in the passing game for a second straight game. The real concern is the passing defense as the Wildcats allowed Darian Mensah to throw for 342 yards on just 19 completions (18 yards per completion) and this is a real concern going against Noah Fifita who is coming off a horrible game by his standards. Arizona opened its season with a blowout win over New Mexico and it clearly thought that easy win meant they could show up against Northern Arizona and roll but that was not the case. Arizona rallied from down four points at the half to beat the Lumberjacks 22-10 on Saturday for its ninth straight victory which ties a school record and is currently the longest active winning streak in the country. The Wildcats won despite arguably its worst offensive performance since 2021 as they gained 361 yards while going 0 for 10 on third down with just 147 yards in the first half, 26 fewer than they gained on their first two drives against New Mexico. The defense saved the day, allowing only 198 total yards and the takeaway from the game was that they just did not show up. Do not expect a repeat of that here. The tough environment is playing into this line as we have this game at 3.5 so we are getting the value on top of it. 10* (109) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Miami needed two field goals in the last five minutes to beat Jacksonville and that was a big win heading into this game not just to possibly avoid falling two games back in the AFC East had they lost, but for confidence coming off an interesting pregame situation to say the least. Miami has the short rest advantage with no travel and we are not seeing this line do much which is fair with both teams coming off favorite wins last week. This could be the best spot to catch Buffalo at in a while with its defense coming into the season with some concerns and Miami now looking to improve upon its 20 and 14 point outputs in the two meetings last season. The Dolphins scored just 20 points last week against the Jaguars but did manage 400 yards of offense and based on the NFL yard per point average over the last five years, that normally equates to 27 points. The Dolphins have already ruled out Raheem Mostert while DeVon Achane is listed as a gametime decision and this could be a big issue but neither were involved much in the running game last week and Jeff Wilson is more than a capable backup. The Bills opened things up in the second half after falling behind 17-3 but the win was still in jeopardy but Arizona failed on a fourth-and-7 from the Buffalo 29-yard line with just 26 seconds left. As mentioned, the defense was a concern coming in and with the exception of Greg Rousseau, it was not a clean effort against a not so great offense. Buffalo will need a better effort here and could struggle on the back end with the Miami speed. On offense, quarterback Josh Allen completed 18 of his 23 passes for 232 yards and scored four total touchdowns, including two rushing touchdowns, on his way to a 75.1 PFF overall grade. Allen was willing to push the ball downfield, too, averaging 9.7 ypa but no clear No. 1 receiver emerged with Keon Coleman leading with five targets with seven others getting between two and three. This is not necessarily a bad thing spreading it around no go to guy causes Allen to try and do too much and it nearly cost him. His wrist injury is on the non-throwing hand but that can affect other areas of his game. Having lost four straight and nine of the last 10 in this series, the Dolphins break through Thursday. 10* (104) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. They are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. This is still one of the best rosters in the league but this is not a good spot in the opener against a legitimate team. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 5-19 ATS in the opening week the following season and while it has leveled out somewhat more recently (3-3 ATS L6), those three winners did not go against the best of competition, the last two opponents being the 2023 Patriots and 2019 Panthers which went a combined 9-24 those seasons and the 2018 Texans which were a respectable 10-6. Additionally, Monday night favorites have been bankroll burners, going 19-41-1 ATS since 1980 and this is all based on the public riding those sides with inflated numbers. Expectations are high for the Jets for a second straight season following last year when their season was basically over after four snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA and they averaged 10.4 ppg in their 10 losses. Rodgers is not the same quarterback he once was is our guess after not seeing him in a while but he will breathe life into the offense. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. Anything over a field goal is a bonus and it would not be surprising to see this number go up slightly with public money not hitting the 49ers yet. 10* (481) New York Jets

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The Commanders finished last in the NFC East as they went 3-14 overall including going a winless 0-6 in the division and while they are not coming into the season as a very hyped team, they figure to be improved. Quarterback Sam Howell started every game for Washington but he is gone after leading the NFL with 23 turnovers and the Commanders had the worst turnover margin in the league which puts them in a positive progression situation going into this season as that usually reverses out and we will take advantage of that in Game One because the lines are still focused mainly on last season. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. To help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Commanders fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (473) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Giants had an offseason that many felt was left to be desired as they did not do a ton of upgrading and will have to go on after losing running back Saquon Barkley but we love the early buy low spot with no one wanting a piece of New York. Besides us. This is the typical offseason overreaction which we love to go against, whether it be the good or bad hype, and it is the latter in this case with a lot of that directed toward quarterback Daniel Jones who is back after an injury filled 2023 season which included a torn ACL in Week Nine. He looked below average in the preseason but we cannot take too much out of that. The biggest problem on offense last season was not necessarily the loss of Jones but it was the offensive line as they allowed an NFL worst 85 sacks, 20 more than the next highest team. No worries about that in this matchup. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball and Jones should have time. The Vikings defense showed improvement going from second worst in total defense to No. 16 but Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone and they finished last season with only 43 sacks. Daboll has taken over the play calling after two years and we love that move. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins which is a huge loss and they will turn to Sam Darnold who does not instill much confidence. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off with Darnold and his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here with the exception of Justin Jefferson but he could struggle without Cousins. The Giants defense was not horrendous last season and the signing of Brian Burns was significant. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Giants fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (460) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. There is no hype in New Orleans despite coming off a winning season as it is in a rare situation of coming off a decent finish but odds have gone the other direction despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The Saints are in one of the weakest divisions in the league and it is wide open yet they have gone from +115 last season to +400 this season while their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less than 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Quarterback Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the worst coach in the division now faces off against who we think is the best coach in the division. Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. Head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and while he was not the issue, we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The Panthers upgraded their defense as well. The casual fan or bettor will look at those two wins from last season but Carolina has potential for a big turnaround. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Panthers fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Also, Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014. 10* (461) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Division Game of the Month. This is a spot where we are going against a team that comes into the season as arguably the biggest overhyped team with Super Bowl futures pouring in. There have been only eight teams in the NFL that were 150-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl and then go to 20-1 or less the following season and Houston is one of those heading into this season. Of the previous seven, five have finished with a losing record so we will be fading the Texans here as they are getting the love of their worst to first AFC South turnaround. The fact the Texans had 11 wins last season which was the same amount as their previous three seasons combined shows there should be negative regression and we have the ideal spot in playing against them as they enter the season as a division road favorite with the number continuing to climb. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year but eight of his 10 regular season wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs and while one of those was Indianapolis, the Colts are a different team than what they were in January. Houston also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA but there was a lot of turnover on this side. Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014 while divisional home underdogs are 25-13 ATS going back further. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CFB Primetime Dominator. As expected, Tennessee had no issues with Chattanooga last week as it racked up 718 yards of offense in the 69-3 win. It was a meaningless FCS victory but showed that they are on the rise with the program in its best place in a long time. In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season and was unstoppable last week and while he will see a better defense, it is not a great one. NC State has been consistent on defense the last three seasons but have to replace the Bednarik and Butkus Award winning linebacker Payton Wilson. NC State needed 21 points in the fourth quarter to pull away from Western Carolina so it was not the opener the Wolfpack were really hoping for. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong did not live up to expectations last season and the offense suffered, finishing No. 96 overall and No. 71 in scoring and the Wolfpack brought in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina, who was outstanding in his first three years but was hurt most of last season. He was very good in the opener but will have a tougher test this week and it will be up to the Tennessee secondary to slow down ACC Freshman of the Year receiver KC Concepcion. The Volunteers can do that with a disruptive pass rush where they will have a huge edge as the difference will be the Tennessee defensive line, ranked No. 3 in the SEC, going up against the NC State offensive line, ranked No. 11 in the ACC. 10* (399) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. East Carolina is a sexy pick to win the AAC despite coming off a 2-10 season last year. The Pirates got no resistance from Norfolk St. in their 42-3 win in their season opener and while it was just a FCS win, it was a big confidence builder after losing their last seven season openers. The Pirates have had only two winning seasons since 2014 but those were in 2022 and 2023 so last season could be considered an anomaly should they bounce back which is expected as there was very little experience on the roster last year especially on the offense. East Carolina hit the transfer portal hard to improve that offense that finished No. 130 overall and No. 127 in scoring, bringing in Miami quarterback Jake Garcia who helped lead the offense to over 500 total yards. The offensive line lacked experience last season and it will be far better off in 2024. The other side is where the turnaround starts with as the Pirates were No. 38 overall and No. 40 in points allowed with only SMU and UTSA scoring 30 or more points in conference games and while they did lose a few key pieces, portal arrivals should keep the unit strong with the second best defensive line and fifth best secondary in the conference heading into the season. Old Dominion left its heart on the field last week in Columbia as it just fell short in pulling off the upset against South Carolina. That is a tough game to recover from for a team that was in need of something really good to happen. Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but have gone bowling the last two years. However, the Monarchs bring back only 10 starters including four on defense which has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year despite the decent effort last week. 10* (353) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Virginia Tech was a bad call last week as it fell behind early against Vanderbilt and while the Hokies rallied, they could not contain quarterback Diego Pavia who had a combined 301 yards passing and rushing showing his season at New Mexico St. last year was no fluke. It was the third straight time that Virginia Tech opened the season with a road loss as a favorite but it bounced back at home both previous times and we expect a blowout here. This is the second most experienced team in the country as they have 11 starters back on offense led by quarterback Kyron Drones who is returning for his second season as the starter and he has four of his top five receivers back that combined for 1,549 yards last season and he had a solid first game but they need to get the running game going as Bhayshul Tuten was held to just 34 yards on nine carries. The Hokies scored 30 or more points in five of their last eight games last season and will not find much resistance here. The Marshall defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 and has only five starters back. Marshall rolled over Stony Brook of the FCS in its opener as they used three different quarterbacks to get as much experience as possible. The Thundering Herd are coming off their first losing season since 2016 as they went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd were hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis would provide a spark but he left the program in June and Stone Earle, who left North Texas in June, got the start so this situation could turn into a mess when now facing a legitimate defense. The Hokies defense improved by 55 ypg from 2022 and finished No. 20 in the country and brings back four of the top five tacklers and bounces back here. 10* (350) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. Texas St. is on a lot of brackets to be the team to represent the Group of 5 in the CFP and rightfully so even though it looked not so great in its opener but that helps us here. The Bobcats only won by seven points against Lamar but they were up 17 with four minutes left so there were garbage points involved. Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. The Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. Nine starters return on offense and while they had to replace Auburn transfer T.J. Finley, they brought in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who had a great season and threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns in the opener behind the best offensive line in the SBC. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA had a bigger than anticipated test against Kennesaw St., which is in its first season at the FBS level, as the Roadrunners needed a late score to pull away. While expected to contend in the AAC, they lost a lot from their 9-4 team from last season, notably replacing the best quarterback in program history. Frank Harris set school records for passing yards (11,862), passing touchdowns (92), rushing yards (2,145), and rushing touchdowns (28) as a five-year player and four-year starter. Owen McCown, who led UTSA to their bowl victory, won the starting job and was solid in the opener as he threw for 340 yards but will have a bigger test here and this will be his first ever road start. The Roadrunners were above average on defense, led by Trey Moore who won AAC Defensive Player of the Year and set a school record with 14 sacks, but he transferred to Texas so that is a big hole to fill while the secondary has to rebuild with three starters lost. 10* (346) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Contrarian Closer. California was in a fight in its season opener with UC Davis but that could have been more so keeping things close to the vest and not showing much as it clung to a one point lead at halftime and pulled away late for the 31-13 win. It was the game we wanted to set a play up here as a closer than expected call gives them value here. Last season, California made it to its first bowl game since 2019 as it won its final three regular season games to become bowl eligible and while it lost to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl, it was a season to build upon. The offense was nothing spectacular as it was No. 60 overall and No. 48 in scoring with 30.2 ppg, its highest average since 2016 and it was spurned when freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over as the full time starter six games into the season. He finished the opener 15-22 for 158 yards and one touchdown which was nothing spectacular but it was efficient and now face a defense that has not been very good for years. Auburn went the FCS route in its season opener so a 73-3 victory will look good in the stats but means little in what was a glorified scrimmage. The Tigers are coming off their third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze to turn things around. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team in the SEC but they came into last season as the fifth most experienced and were mediocre at best. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent with a 60.9% completion rate while throwing only 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He had a great opener against Alabama A&M and like last season when he had a good opener, he struggled in Game Two which happened to come against California in a narrow 14-10 win. This is the best Bears team in six years and are undervalued. 10* (323) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our SEC Game of the Month. There are games where teams do not show a lot to not provide upcoming opponents too much and then there are others where teams just do not have it and South Carolina is the latter. The Gamecocks snuck past a bad Old Dominion team at home as they were actually losing late into the fourth quarter as South Carolina recovered two fumbles inside the 10 leading to its only two touchdowns with those two drives totaling nine yards. Last season, South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. It needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense as South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times and it could do nothing against the Monarchs. Redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers won the quarterback job and he was not good. Kentucky is coming off a 31-0 win over Southern Mississippi that was delayed and eventually stopped with 9:56 left in the third quarter so it could have gotten really ugly but the Wildcats got what they needed while not showing much of the playbook. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC as there are eight starters back on offense and while they are replacing the quarterback, there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff who was very solid in the opener. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be much better than last season and while they shut out a bad Southern Mississippi offense, South Carolina is not going to provide much more of a challenge. The Wildcats host Georgia next week so they want a complete game. 10* (332) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. All of the talk on Sunday was how good Notre Dame looked and how much of a player they are going to be in the upcoming CFP. While the Irish did look good against Texas A&M, that national television result is the perfect setup to play against them as this line is inflated based on the road win that was still a tied game with under two minutes left. The defense was solid but the offense left a lot to be desired and while they take a step down in class, they also have the letdown effect going against them. They came into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping along with a cakewalk schedule. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye so just going on cruise control will get them the No. 5 seed. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and it could take this offense some time to get together. Northern Illinois rolled over Western Illinois by 39 points while covering the 35.5-point number so the Huskies played like they should have and still held back despite the gaudy numbers. This is the fourth straight season Northern Illinois will have at least 15 starters back and it is capable of its best one over this stretch with one big question being quarterback and they found their guy in Ethan Hampton who won the job in camp. He was 18-20 for 320 yards and five touchdowns against the Leathernecks and while the competition aided in that, it was great for confidence. The Huskies are going to rely on running Antario Brown who rushed for 1,339 yards last season and coming off an 8.6 ypc game and is running behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in the MAC. Northern Illinois improved its defense by 11.8 ppg and 76 ypg from 2023 and it finished No. 23 overall and has a chance to be better with eight starters back along with solid depth. They can definitely keep Notre Dame in check to stay within this number, only the second time since 2005 they have gotten more than 25 points. 10* (335) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. The once proud Spartans program has taken a step back the last two seasons with a 9-15 record. In comes Jonathan Smith who turned around a fledging Oregon St. program with three straight winning seasons in his five years there but he walks into a tough situation that cannot be fixed overnight. His first job will be to try and turn around an offense that went from 31.8 ppg in 2021 to 24.4 ppg in 2022 to 15.9 ppg last season and looked awful in their season opener against a below average Florida Atlantic team. Quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith to East Lansing and he lacks experience and it showed as he was just 10-24 for 114 yards and two interceptions while leading the offense to just 14 points on 293 total yards with 63 of those yards coming on one touchdown run from the backup no less. Run blocking was already a concern for the Spartans, which underwent an overhaul at offensive line with four starters needing to be replaced and take away that one big run, they averaged 3.2 ypc. The Spartans have been a mess on defense for the last five seasons so holding Florida Atlantic to 248 yards may seem solid but the Owls were awful on offense last season and brought only four starters back as the Spartans This are a group that ranked No. 98 in pass defense last year but merely was not tested by the Florida Atlantic low-talent pass attack. That changes here. Maryland had to replace a ton on offense including the All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa but Billy Edwards was efficient going 20-27 for 311 yards and two touchdowns and while it was against Connecticut, there is not a huge upgrade here as the Spartans will have no answers. The receiving corps is loaded with six of the top eight pass catchers back as well as the top two running backs. Maryland has improved on defense yardage wise each of the last five years and the Terrapins bring back a strong front seven but do need some help in the secondary but they will not be have to worry about that here. 10* (344) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. We won with Georgia Tech in its opener against Florida St. in a substantial upset and the Yellow Jackets avoided the letdown when it faced in-state rival Georgia St., one of the bottom teams in the Sun Belt Conference, in a 35-12 win on Saturday. Now comes the possible letdown as the Yellow Jackets are off that big upset abroad and off their home opener so if anything, this is the spot where that happens. That is only a small piece in this play as Georgia Tech is now an overvalued team with another significant travel spot. We are definitely high on this team as head coach Brent Key has changed the culture of this program, something it has not had since the early days of Paul Johnson. They are more physical up front and quarterback Haynes King has shown he can make the plays but while this is not the greatest home advantage in college football, this is the first true road game of the season. Syracuse opened its season with a win over Ohio by 16 points which was a solid victory to get the new regime going. Syracuse hired Fran Brown who was the Georgia defensive backs coach for two seasons and considered one of the best recruiters in the country to right the ship of a program that has won more than six games only five times since 2002 with only one double-digit win season. The big name from the transfer portal is quarterback Kyle McCord coming in from Ohio St. off a very good season. He has the playmakers to work with so the offense should improve from its No. 88 ranking. He got off to a great start going 27-39 for 354 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. The defense finished No. 65 overall and the Orange bring back their two leading tacklers in linebacker Marlowe Wax and defensive back Justin Barron so this unit can and should improve. This is a revenge game for Syracuse which lost in Atlanta last season 31-22 that cost head coach Dino Babers his job but the Orange rallied under their interim head coach to become bowl eligible. If this was the first game of the season, we would see a line of Syracuse -3 so there is a flip of the number with the public perception forcing the linesmakers to adjust. This opened at DraftKings last Wednesday at -1 and was bet up from there. 10* (306) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both won their season openers albeit in different fashion but that puts Cincinnati in a great spot at a short number. The Bearcats found life rough in the Big 12 as they went just 1-8 in their first season, only defeating 2-7 Houston, while going 3-9 overall with the other wins coming against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS and Pittsburgh on the road so there is no opponent angle to avenge that loss. Things are expected to be a lot better this season. They had only eight starters coming back along with a new head coach and the uptick in strength of schedule led to their fewest wins overall since 1999. Now in the second year in the system of head coach Scott Satterfield while bringing back close to double the number of returning starters, we should see some positive progression. Cincinnati was very good offensively, averaging 426.1 ypg which was No. 34 but it could not get into the endzone as it was just No. 84 in scoring. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby comes into a good situation with the top rusher and receiver back along with all five starters on the offensive line returning. Sorsby was excellent against Towson as he was 22-31 for 383 yards and two touchdowns. Averaging 24.1 ppg will not get it done as turnovers killed some good ball movement last season so mistakes have to come down yet they were guilty of three lost fumbles against the Tigers. The other side of the ball is what really hurt them as the defense allowed its most yards and most points since 2017 which happened to be its last losing season and Cincinnati hit the transfer portal hard along all three levels to improve their unit as a whole. Pittsburgh rolled over Kent St., which is one of the worst teams in the country as it is ranked dead last in the Week Two Betting Power Rankings so while Pittsburgh was favored by 24 points over the Golden Flashes, Cincinnati would be favored by 27 points on a neutral field so that is where some of the value comes into play. The Panthers racked up 55 points with a balanced attack and help from the special teams but again, we have to take that with a grain of salt based on the opponent. Quarterback Eli Holstein won the starting job and looked great but will have a challenge here in his first road game against a real defense. 10* (314) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Rutgers toyed with Howard in a 44-7 win as the defense dominated while the offense ran a vanilla style game that did not show much to future opponents as they ran the ball 46 times while throwing in only 24 times. After a 6-2 start last season, it was the quickest Rutgers had become bowl eligible since 2012 when it started 7-0 and last season was the first one with a winning record since 2014. It did not end well with four straight losses to end the regular season but those were all against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they closed with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami to bring some confidence into this season. The Scarlet Knights bring back a very experienced team, the second most experienced team in the Big 10 in fact, so they could present some problems and it helps having the second easiest schedule in the conference. The passing game was non-existent last season as Rutgers finished No. 127 in passing offense and they completed only 48 percent of their passes. They brought in Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis and while he did not have a great 2023 season, he will be a big upgrade. He was 15-24 with three touchdowns and while the threw for only 147 yards, he did not have to unleash downfield. The defense kept them in games last season, finishing No. 16 overall and eight starters are back with experience across all three levels and we will see another solid effort against Akron. The Zips hung around for much of the first half against Ohio St. as it did its best in playing keep away but that only worked for so long and the Zips managed only 177 total yards despite possessing the ball for 34 minutes as the running game was non-existent. This is one of the worst teams in the country that will again be battling it out for last place in the MAC. They return the 12th least experienced team in the nation and has only nine starters back including just three on an offense that averaged just 16.3 ppg on 279 ypg as it losses both top quarterbacks, top two rushers and top three receivers. The Betting Power Rankings have Rutgers at -28 on a neutral field so there is a lot of value which is rare for these big numbers but the Scarlet Knights can name the score here with a bye week on deck. 10* (316) Rutgers Scarlet Knights