Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-24 | Giants v. Red Sox +120 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 120 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Boston took the last two games in its series against the Cubs which snapped a two-game skid and the Red Sox are now just 5-8 at home which is giving some value as is the pitching matchup. The Giants have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they are back on the road following a nine-game homestand. San Francsico has an identical road record as the Red Sox have at home yet come in as a significant road favorite mainly because of Logan Webb. He is coming off another shutout performance as he went eight innings against the Mets which was his second straight outing of allowing no runs. He has dominated at home but has been average on the road with a 4.32 ERA in three starts. Cooper Criswell is an unknown name for most which is also playing into the number but he has been solid with a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first two starts. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season, after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. This situation is 38-22 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Boston Red Sox |
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04-27-24 | Phillies v. Padres -111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. After blowing a 9-4 lead in the eighth inning on Thursday, the Padres lost this series opener 9-3 on Friday. They are now a game under .500 at 14-15 but send their ace to the hill on Saturday. The Phillies have won two straight games and seven of their last nine to move to 17-10 which is good for second place in the National League East, two and a half games behind Atlanta. We are going against Ranger Suarez who has now gone three straight starts without allowing a run covering 22 innings. This is not sustainable and faces a potent offense tonight. Dylan Cease will look to keep his hot start going as well and give the San Diego bullpen a break. He has allowed two runs or less in all five of his starts and has a 1.82 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over that stretch. He has allowed only 11 hits in his 29.7 innings including just one home run. Here, we play on favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a bullpen after two straight games throwing five or more innings going up against an opponent with a bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.75 the last 10 games. This situation is 31-5 (86.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) San Diego Padres |
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04-26-24 | Nationals +150 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 150 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. Not much was expected of Washington this season and so far, that has been the case with the National sitting at 10-14 following a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers where the offense mustered only four runs in the three-game series. Miami does have the worse record but is arguably the better team yet no way it should be laying a price this big. The Marlins are 6-20 including a 2-11 record at home and they are hitting .216 which is tied for third worst in baseball while their 3.4 rpg are third worst overall. Pitching has not been great for Washington but Trevor Williams has been one of the bright spots as he has posted a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through four starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those. Miami counters with Anthony Maldonado who will be recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville to serve as an opener and this is his Major League debut. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.55 or worse on the season going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher. This situation is 65-36 (64.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Washington Nationals |
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04-25-24 | Astros v. Cubs +113 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 113 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. The Cubs closed as a short underdog last night despite the disparity in records and it is even more today because of one name. Chicago is 15-9 including 9-3 at home following its second straight win over Houston and we should see a great environment here. The Astros are in a bad place right now as they have the second worst record in the American League with the third worst pitching staff in all of baseball with a 5.14 ERA which includes one of the worst bullpens. Injuries have hurt them and there is hope with Justin Verlander back but he is always overvalued. Verlander looked good in his return as he allowed two runs over six innings against Washington but has a much tougher matchup. Javier Assad counters for Chicago and he has been great with a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts and this should not be surprising after he was awesome last season when entering the rotation, allowing more than three runs only once in nine starts and that was in Colorado. Here, we play against road teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season, stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Chicago Cubs |
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04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers -112 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Texas fell behind 4-0 after three innings last night and could not solve Logan Gilbert and the potent Rangers offense was shutout for the second time this season. They responded with a 12-run outburst after getting blanked the first time. Jon Gray was hit hard in his first start like his counterpart but he has settled down with a 1.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his last three starts. Seattle has now won six of its last seven games to move a game over .500 and we are going against the hot run and the hot arm. Bryce Miller had a rough opening start against Boston but has responded with three quality outings, posting a 0.47 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in those three games but now faces a Rangers team that lit him up both times last season with 13 runs over 6.2 innings. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 53-26 (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Texas Rangers |
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04-24-24 | Tigers +109 v. Rays | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Detroit continues its solid start to the season as it has won three straight games to move to 14-10. The Tigers came in as a sleeper to win the American League Central and they are right there, doing it with what exactly was expected, a weak offense and excellent pitching. Jack Flaherty has made four starts, three of which have been quality with one bad outing coming against Oakland of all teams. Facing a struggling offense, he comes in with a 30:4 K:BB ratio and brings in a 1.11 WHIP. Tampa Bay is nothing but an average team and that goes back to last season as after its unearthly start, the Rays came back down to earth. The offense has averaged 2.6 rpg over the last seven games and they will be going with an opener on the hill with Shawn Alexander which puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen. Here, we play on road teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more home runs per start and with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games. This situation is 58-30 (65.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (969) Detroit Tigers |
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04-23-24 | Astros -108 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Tuesday Double Play. It has been a rough start for Houston which is off to a 7-16 start after a series loss at Washington. The offense is leading baseball in hitting but it is not coming through in the clutch by not scoring while the pitching has struggled. J.P. France has a 7.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through four starts but those numbers are inflated due to one bad outing against Texas and he has allowed three runs or less in his other three starts. The Cubs are coming off a home split against Miami to remain four games over .500 yet come in as an underdog. Jordan wicks is the season as he has a 5.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP through four starts and he has yet to make it out of the fifth inning in any of those. Here, we play against teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or higher. This situation is 56-26 (68.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (929) Houston Astros |
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04-23-24 | Phillies v. Reds +113 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 113 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Double Play. We played against the Phillies last night and it came away with its seventh straight win with the first six coming against the Rockies and White Sox which are a combined 8-37. They have a tougher matchup tonight yet come in as a bigger favorite. Cincinnati had its three-game winning streak snapped with its potent offense getting shutout for the first time this season. Andrew Abbott is off to a solid start with a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through four starts, allowing no more than two runs in any of those outings. Since entering the rotation last June, he has a 3.69 ERA over 25 career starts. Cristopher Sanchez is also off to a good start with a 2.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP but his one bad outing was his lone road start at Washington. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg and hitting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-22-24 | Tigers v. Rays +100 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Tampa Bay is coming off a series loss in New York against the Yankees to fall to 12-11 on the season. It has been up and down but the Rays are in a good matchup with a solid starter and a great recent bullpen facing a very poor offense. Detroit has gotten off to a good start at 12-10 following a series win at Minnesota and the tigers are now 8-3 on the road. They have gotten it done with pitching with a solid rotation and a great bullpen but they are overvalued here. Zack Littell has allowed three runs or less in all four of his starts which has carried over from last season where he posted a 3.93 ERA in 26 games that included 14 starts where he allowed three runs or less in 11 of those. Tarik Skubal came in as a top contender for the Cy Young and he has lived up to it but has had a beneficial schedule as his last three starts have come at home and his only road start was against the woeful White Sox. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season, after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 53-24 (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Tampa Bay Rays |
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04-22-24 | Phillies v. Reds +108 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Philadelphia has won six straight games but the two series wins were against arguably the two worst teams in their respective leagues with Colorado and Chicago being two very bad teams. The Phillies are 14-8 overall and it has been a very favorable schedule with 16 of the 22 games taking place at home. Cincinnati is coming off a home sweep on the Angels over the weekend which came after getting swept on the road in Seattle. The Reds are 12-9 overall with a potent offense averaging 5.3 rpg including 5.5 rpg at home. Ranger Suarez is off to a great start with a 1.73 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts and he has not allowed a run over his last two outings covering 15 innings. Hunter Greene had one bad start against Milwaukee but he has allowed two runs or less in his other three starts. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg and hitting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 35-11 (76.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-18-24 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Runline Dominator. Of the 10 Tampa Bay 10 wins this season, it has covered the run line in eight of those and after the outright loss on Wednesday, the Rays have dropped three straight against the run line which presents a great opportunity today to have a margin win. Tampa Bay was unable to hold onto the lead on Wednesday as it gave up a pair of ninth innings run to fall to 10-9 overall and 6-7 at home but the series finale presents a great spot for the offense. Griffin Canning has gotten off to a poor start with a 9.88 ERA and 1.83 WHIP through his first three outings as he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of those starts while giving up five home runs in the process. The Angels have lost his last nine starts going back to last season, seven of which have been by more than one run. Ryan Pepiot has been hit hard in two of his three starts and ironically, his best outing was in Colorado where he did not allow a run over six innings. He has been a victim overall where he has allowed 10 runs but only 12 hits and five walks covering 16.2 innings for a 1.02 WHIP. 10* (956) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Runs |
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04-17-24 | Reds +125 v. Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Following a sweep in Chicago against the White Sox, Cincinnati has dropped the first two games of this series and will be out to avoid the sweep before returning home. The offense has been held in check but it has been solid thus far as the Reds have averaged 5.5 rpg including 5.6 rpg on the road. Seattle has improved to 6-6 at home following a series loss against the Cubs here over the weekend. The Mariners had their best offensive showing of the season in the opener with nine runs but the bats have struggled as they are averaging just 3.4 rpg while hitting only .213 as a team. Andrew Abbott is off to a solid start with a 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through three starts, allowing no more than two runs in any of those outings. Since entering the rotation last June, he has a 3.69 ERA over 24 career starts. Bryce Miller has been even better with a 1.96 ERA in three starts and has not allowed an earned run in his last two outings. He has had nearly the same number of career starts as Abbott but the results have not been as good with a 4.03 over 28 outings. Here, we play on road underdogs with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 playing with double revenge playing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. This situation is 53-31 (63.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (929) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-04-24 | Pirates v. Nationals +118 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Washington was able to put an end to the Pirates 5-0 start to the season with a 5-3 win on Wednesday and it comes in as a small underdog into the series finale. The Nationals can build off that with one of the more promising young pitchers in the league. Josiah Gray did not have a good opening start as he allowed seven runs in four innings against the Reds but we expect a bounce back here. Last season, he posted a 3.91 ERA in 30 starts and it was his bounce back ability that showed his proficiency to rebound. He allowed four runs or more nine times and allowed three runs or less next time out six times. He gave up five runs to the Braves in his first outing last season and went on to allow three runs or less in his next 10 starts including two runs or less nine times. Martin Perez had a solid outing in his first start but did not last long as he went just 4.1 innings but needed 86 pitches and that was against the current 0-7 Marlins whose offense is one of the worst to start the season and are ahead of only Oakland and Colorado in run differential. 10* (952) Washington Nationals |
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04-03-24 | Cardinals v. Padres -146 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. The Padres split their two opening series against the Dodgers and Giants but has dropped the first two games in this three-game set to fall to 3-5. This is a big game to salvage with a day off tomorrow and then a rematch series at San Francisco. St. Louis dropped three of four against the Dodgers prior to this series with the pitching leading the way as the Cardinals allowed two runs in both games but we see that changing today in this afternoon start. Joe Musgrove has not gotten off to a good start with a second straight poor start. He allowed eight hits and four earned runs with only three strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work against the Giants. The hits came early and often and he spoke about it after as location was the issue as he said the body felt good and there was solid action on the ball so this is just a minor tweak. Zack Thompson is also coming off a poor outing as he allowed five runs on six hits including three home runs in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers. This start is more of a concern than the one of Musgrove because of the long ball as he has now allowed 11 home runs in 11 career starts. He posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in nine starts and 16 relief appearances last season after opening the season in the bullpen. 10* (904) San Diego Padres |
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03-30-24 | Giants v. Padres -120 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. After winning the series opener 6-4, San Diego dropped Game Two last night 8-3 as the Giants jumped on Joe Musgrove who has been shaky this spring and lit up in his two starts. We expect the Padres to bounce back here whose bats have been lively in both games and including the two games against the Dodgers, they are hitting .290. Dylan Cease makes his Padres debut after coming over from the White Sox in a trade. Even though he is coming off a shaky 2023, Cease was elite in 2021 and the runner up for AL Cy Young with the White Sox in 2022. Last season, he struck out more than 200 hitters for the third consecutive season and his 3.72 FIP was more representative of his skillset than the poor 4.58 ERA. Jordan Hicks will also be making his debut with a new team after splitting time with Toronto and St. Louis where he made 65 appearances, all out of the bullpen. He made eight starts in 2022, the only time he has started in his five seasons but the lack of depth in the Giants rotation is giving him the chance and we are not expecting much. 10* (910) San Diego Padres |
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03-29-24 | Yankees v. Astros -119 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. This is a good bounce back spot for Houston after blowing a 4-0 lead on opening Day. The Astros had runners on first and second with one out in the bottom of the ninth but Juan Soto threw out a runner at home to help preserve a 5-4 comeback win for the Yankees. Houston could not get anything going on Nestor Cortes after the second inning and failed to score from there despite outhitting New York 13-8. Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the Yankees and there is not a lot of confidence. Last season, Rodon pitched to a 6.85 ERA and a 3-8 record in 14 starts and while he was able to make all five spring starts which is encouraging with his previous health issues, he posted a 4.66 ERA and the Astros produced big against lefties last season. Cristian Javier counters for Houston who started great last season but faded midseason before a decent finish. There is encouraging news after his velocity declined last season as he topped out at 95 mph in spring training as he came into camp 15 pounds lighter which is actually big in terms of velocity relating to release point. 10* (978) Houston Astros |
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03-28-24 | Tigers v. White Sox +165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Opening Day Sweet Spot. It has been a while since Detroit has been in the public spotlight but that is the case before the 2024 season as the Tigers are a popular pick to win the American League Central over the favored Twins. The lines are showing this on Opening Day as they are a big favorite in Chicago which is picked to finish last in the division and we are fading the public here. Tarik Skubal is +900 to win the American League Cy Young which is tied for the fifth lowest odds with a lot of this based on last season. In 15 starts, he allowed two runs or less 11 times but he had a very easy opposing schedule and while the White Sox are not expected to do much, it is due to having no pitching as their lineup from 1-6 is legit. Garrett Crochet gets the start for Chicago which shows how limited this rotation is but he has potential. Some scouts had Crochet as the most dominant pitcher in the Cactus League over his 12.2 innings, during which he recorded 14 strikeouts and one walk while his fastball topped out at 100 mph. The Tigers lineup is not going to scare anyone at least early on as it is loaded with young talent but six of the nine spots are not set in stone. 10* (924) Chicago White Sox |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Signature Sweet Spot. Arizona was able to gain the split in Texas to grab home field advantage but gave it back on Monday with a 3-1 loss. The Diamondbacks lost despite outhitting the Rangers and it was one swing of the bat for the second time in three games from Corey Seager to change the game. This has turned into a must win for Arizona which will be a bullpen game, similar to a 6-5 win over Philadelphia in Game Four of the NLCS. The Rangers have now won a postseason record nine straight road games and they are going to a public selection based on that. The bats have been held in check for the most part the last two games with just four runs scored and will possibly be shorthanded tonight. The win may been very costly as Adolis Garcia was pulled in the eighth inning with an oblique injury and that is a huge blow to the offense if he cannot go. Joe Matniply will get the start after being the NLCS Game Four starter in that bullpen game and tossed a scoreless inning. The bullpen has posted a 2.64 ERA over the last seven games and comes in pretty fresh thanks to Brandon Pfaadt going 5.1 innings last night. The Rangers counter with Andrew Heaney who was a serviceable starter for much of the season but has been relegated to the bullpen over the last month and a half. He has made three starts since the end of September with the longest outing being 4.1 innings and the length has been shortened in the two following starts. The bullpen came through last night but it has struggled with a 5.09 ERA over the last seven games. 10* (952) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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10-28-23 | Diamondbacks +143 v. Rangers | Top | 9-1 | Win | 143 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Signature Sweet Spot. Game One of the World Series was one for the ages as it was a big comeback win for the Rangers with a game tying home run in the ninth inning and then a game winning home run in extra innings, surprisingly the first extra inning game of the postseason. While it was a tough loss for the Diamondbacks, this young team has been resilient, most recently two elimination games win against the Phillies. The Rangers have been just as resilient, blowing out Houston in two elimination games before the dramatic win last night. The price reflects Texas having a big advantage but like last night, even though it resulted in a loss for Arizona, it is a game that has the makings of another classic. Merrill Kelly has pitched well overall this postseason, putting up a 2.65 ERA in three starts and all of those have been on the road so this is not a big deal for him. In Game 6 of the NLCS while facing elimination against the Phillies, he went five innings and allowed just one run and three hits while striking out eight. Jordan Montgomery has made four postseason starts and he has been very solid in two of those but the other two were not great. The Rangers lost his last outing which was his only one at home in the playoffs where he has been very up and down since coming over from the Cardinals. 10* (943) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers -105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. The ALCS is four games in and the home team has yet to win a game let alone lead a game. Houston jumped ahead 3-0 only to see it get tied up and they ran away with it with 18 runs scored over the last two games to tie this series. Amazingly, Houston has won seven straight meetings here and all momentum has shifted their way but we see that in the line. Texas had won seven straight games to open the postseason prior to the last two games and after the Astros being in must win mode in Games Three and Four, the Rangers find themselves there now. Jordan Montgomery has been on an incredible run as while he allowed four runs in Baltimore two starts back, he has given up one run or less in six of his other seven outings. With the exception of consecutive bad starts against Minnesota and Oakland, he has been dominant at home with this being his first home start in a month. It is never easy going against Justin Verlander who is coming off a solid start in his first start against Texas but there have been rumblings about a blister and while waiting to see if there might be a change, it seems to be not and we get a good price against him . 10* (912) Texas Rangers |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After starting the postseason 5-0, Arizona has had no answer for Philadelphia through the first two games. The Diamondbacks return home to get some energy back with a chance to get their bats going after scoring just three runs through two games after averaging 6.0 rpg in those first five games. The Phillies have been nearly unbeatable in the postseason, going 7-1 which includes a 6-0 record at home so they have not experienced much on the road. The offense has been lethal in their home park but have averaged just 3.5 rpg in the two road games where they are just one game over .500 on the season. Ranger Suarez is has been a very underrated pitcher with a 3.41 career ERA and he has been even better in the postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA including a pair of solid efforts against the Braves. He only went 3.2 innings in his road start however. It will be up to Brandon Pfaadt to slow down the Phillies bats which got to the top two starters. He is coming off a solid effort at home against the Dodgers and he has allowed three runs or less in five straight home starts. Here, we play against road teams with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games, in October games. This situation is 36-10 (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Arizona had no early answers on Monday as Zack Wheeler allowed a leadoff hit and then did not allow another hit for five innings the Phillies used three early home runs including a first pitch leadoff home run from Kyle Schwarber. After winning their first five postseason games, the Diamondbacks, who never trailed against the Dodgers, are now in an early hole but showed some late fight last night. Philadelphia is now 6-1 in the postseason with only a late inning loss against the Braves being the only blemish after blowing a 4-0 lead. There pitching has been outstanding during the postseason as they have allowed more than three runs only once but face a hot offense that has some momentum following a late rally on Monday. Aaron Nola did not have a great regular season by his standards as he posted a 4.62 ERA over 32 starts bit has been dominant in October, winning both his postseason starts with a 1.42 ERA. With this success comes a big price tag similar to Game One. Merrill Kelly hopes to have better success than Zac Gallen did last night and he comes in well rested. He was 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 177.2 regular-season innings and shut down the Dodgers over 6.1 innings, allowing no runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five. He has now allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts including four straight. 10* (971) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Texas is coming off a win the series opener to now make it six straight wins to open the postseason. The pitching once again was the difference as the Rangers have allowed two runs or less in five of those games including one run or fewer four times. This run is hard to continue and the line is starting to move with what they have accomplished with the astros laying a short price. Houston survived the final week of the season as it closed with four straight wins to capture the American League West and a bye but it was the only team to advance to a championship series that had a bye. The Astros have had a disappointing season at home where they finished three games under .500 but still has a great home field edge in a playoff atmosphere where the roster is loaded with experience in these situations. Framber Valdez is coming off a rough outing in his postseason opener where he allowed five runs over 4.1 innings and he should settle down. When he is locked in, he becomes nearly unhittable and he brings in an over 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Nathan Eovaldi has been dominant in both of his playoff starts against Tampa Bay and Baltimore as he has allowed just two runs over 13.2 innings and has not walked a single batter which has kept him out of trouble. Now the regression takes place. 10* (966) Houston Astros |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Ask the Orioles how the Dodgers feel right now. The luxury of getting a first round bye should come with some incentive but it comes with sitting for six days while all other teams are keeping their rhythm by continuing to play and Arizona is has shown that edge. That being said, we are going against that again with the Dodgers which had the second best record in baseball on the cusp of elimination. If prior evidence should say no, this is a team with players and coaching that has been here before, unlike Baltimore, and the Dodgers are in a good spot to make the series go at least one more game. The Dodgers are 47-34 on the road this season and Lance Lynn gets the call after a solid end to the season. He went four straight games allowing three runs less, posting a 3.38 ERA and not allowing the long ball is key. Brandon Pfaadt has been all over the place and this will likely turn into a bullpen game as he does not go long and when he does, he gives it up. 6.46 ERA t home says it all and while the Arizona bullpen is one of the best, this is a good price to go against it. 10* (937) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-10-23 | Orioles +130 v. Rangers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our A.L. Division Series Game of the Year. Baltimore is the last hope for the American League East, the best division during the regular season, to not only keep hope alive to advance but to just win a game as the division is 0-6 in the postseason. After scoring just two runs in the ALDS opener, the bats came alive with eight runs in Game Two but it was too little too late facing a 9-2 deficit in the third inning. Texas has gone from the lowest seed in the American League postseason to World Series favorite and this is just another indication of how this new playoff format is not rewarding the best teams with the four bye teams being off too much. The Rangers finally head home after going 4-0 on the road and bring in a solid 50-31 home record but included just a 2-10 record in their last 12 games against playoff teams. Dean Kreamer looks to keep Baltimore afloat and he was excellent down the stretch, allowing more than three runs only once in his last 12 starts including none in four road outings. Going back, he did not allow more than three runs in his last six road starts going back to June with the Orioles going 4-2. Nathan Eovaldi came up big against Tampa Bay as he allowed just one run over 6.2 innings which was a bit of a surprise after allowing 12 runs over 8.1 innings in his final two regular season starts. He was excellent at home to start the season but after coming back into the rotation after seven weeks being out, he posted a 7.90 ERA over his last four home starts. 10* (925) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -142 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Braves lost the opener of this series on Saturday as they were shutout 3-0 which was the first time they were shutout since May 12 and the first time at home all season. Having six days off definitely hurt with the baseball postseason not rewarding the top teams as much as it seems. Atlanta has used its offense to better strong starters as it is 20-3 against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.15 or better this season. The Phillies have won all three postseason games and have won four straight games overall while allowing just three runs total. Philadelphia is just two games over .500 on the road and finds itself in a similar spot as last season after winning the series opener here and then losing Game Two 3-0. Max Fried ended the regular season strong with a 2.59 ERA over his last seven starts and that is actually below his season ERA of 2.55 in limited action. His exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate and ground ball rate are some of the best in his career and some of the best in the league this season. The Braves are 11-3 in his 14 starts. Zack Wheeler had a solid season with a 3.49 ERA and is coming off a great effort against Miami in the Wild Card round, allowing just one run over 6.2 innings. While better on the road, the Phillies are just 9-8 and he was the starter in this game last season and allowed three runs over six innings for the loss. 10* (918) Atlanta Braves |
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10-08-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -112 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Baltimore dropped the opener of this series 3-2, a rare one run loss as it came into the postseason 30-16 in one run games. The Orioles are now 49-33 at home and they have been solid in this this particular spot despite the bats not coming alive Saturday as they are 42-19 against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or worse while going 37-17 against left-handed starters this season. Texas has opened the postseason with three straight road wins but despite the victory Saturday, it is just 5-10 over its last 15 road games following consecutive road wins. Texas is now just 14-22 in one run games this season and its poor bullpen was taxed on Saturday. Jordan Montgomery is coming off a great start against the Rays where he tossed seven shutout innings on six hits and no walks. While he has been great on the road overall, the Rangers went 2-4 in his six road starts and faces one of the best teams in baseball against lefties. Grayson Rodriguez gets the ball Sunday and he turned his season around after a stint in the minors. He posted a 7.35 ERA in 10 starts before being sent down but after his recall, he put up a 2.58 ERA over his last 13 starts covering 76.2 innings. He allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 12 outings. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-07-23 | Twins v. Astros -151 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Minnesota was able to grab the 2-0 sweep against Toronto despite getting outhit in both games as the Blue Jays made some questionable moves and had costly mental mistakes. The Twins now hit the road where they finished a game under .500 and went just 12-17 on the road this season against playoff teams. Houston survived the final week of the season as it closed with four straight wins to capture the American League West. The Astros have had a disappointing season at home where they finished three games under .500 but still has a great home field edge in a playoff atmosphere where the roster is loaded with experience in these situations. Justin Verlander is back in Houston and will be monumental to spur an Astros run. He allowed one run on five hits over 13 innings in wins against Seattle and Arizona in the final week of the regular season. This will be his 35th career postseason start which will tie him for second most all time and he has 16 postseason victories which is also good for second all time. Bailey Ober put together a great regular season with a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 26 starts but was not chosen to pitch in the Wild Card series as he was not on the roster and there will be concerns with this being his first career postseason start. 10* (906) Houston Astros |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays +117 v. Twins | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our Wednesday Sweet Spot. Toronto came up small for us Tuesday as it outhit the Twins but lost 3-1 as two Royce Lewis home runs were the difference and the Blue Jays had a potential game tying extra base hit robbed at the wall. Not it is win or go home and we should see more production from the offense. Toronto went 9-2 in its last 11 road games following a road loss. Now that Minnesota ended its 18-game postseason losing streak, it is time to regress some and send this to a Game Three as it was fairly fortunate that Lewis of all players hot the two home runs seeing he had not played since September 19. The Twins did strike out 11 times as their dubious league-leading stat continued. Jose Berrios gets the start in the must win game after posting a 3.65 ERA and 1.19 ERA in 32 starts and the fact he went just 11-12 is giving him a good number. He started against the Twins once this year which was in Minnesota as he did not allow a run in 5.2 innings in a 3-0 win and this was him home ballpark for 5.5 years and he states his comfort here. Sonny Gray had a great season with a 2.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but playing on not a very dominant team saw the Twins go just 14-18 in his 32 starts including 7-10 at home. He was dominant down the stretch but this is new territory being his first postseason game since 2017 when he pitched with the Yankees. 10* (955) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays -148 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -148 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Wild Card Game of the Year. Tampa Bay finished only two games behind Baltimore in the American League East which came with a first round bye. Instead, the Rays find themselves a game from elimination after a 4-0 loss on Tuesday. It was an uncanny loss for Tampa Bay as it committed four errors even though three of the runs ended up being earned. The Rays went 9-2 in their last 11 home games following a home loss. Texas finished the regular season a game under .500 on the road and went 7-15 in its last 22 road games coming off a road win so stringing those victories together did not happen much down the stretch. Jordan Montgomery tossed a gen over seven innings, not allowing a run on just six hits and no walks and they will unlikely not keep this offense under wraps again. Zach Eflin had a great season where he allowed more than three runs only six times in his 31 starts. His command was on point as he had a 186:24 K:BB ratio which helped his 1.02 WHIP which was second best in baseball. His 16 wins tied for the best in the A.L. and he was money as Tampa Bay went 23-8 in those 31 games. Nathan Eovaldi had a very solid season with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 25 starts but he closed poor by allowing 12 runs over his last two starts over just 8.1 innings. He pitched here once this season and allowed four runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings. 10* (952) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TOROTO BLUE JAYS for our Tuesday Sweet Spot. Toronto closed the regular season with a pair of losses but it did not matter at that point and actually benefited the Blue Jays to move down to No. 6 and play Minnesota instead of Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. The Blue Jays are a solid 46-35 on the road and Toronto is 13-5 against the money line in road games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 this season. Minnesota easily won the American League Central, finishing nine games ahead of Detroit in a what ended up being a horrible division. Overall, the Twins faced the easiest schedule in baseball with the whole division finishing in the five bottom spots in strength compared to Toronto that faced the No. 7 overall schedule. Kevin Gausman is good opening matchup for Toronto as he comes in with great form, tossing a pair of shutouts against the Yankees over 13 combined innings, allowing only six hits while striking out 15. He led the American League in strikeouts with 237 and faces a Twins team that led baseball in strikeouts with 1,654. Pablo Lopez gets the ball for the Twins and he had a very fine season with similar strikeout numbers but regressed down the stretch. He faces a Toronto team that does not strikeout as it was sixth lowest in strikeouts. Over his last six starts, he posted a 4.46 ERA, allowing fewer than three runs only twice. 10* (947) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-28-23 | Royals -101 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Royals and Tigers game from Wednesday was suspended and will resume at 1:10 with this game starting 40 minutes after. Kansas City had a six-game winning streak snapped and a 10-1 run end with a series opening loss on Tuesday and can close its road schedule win a behind its best starter. The Tigers have been playing well as they have won eight of their last 12 games pending the suspended game outcome and they made strides this season. Coming in with a 69.5 projected win total, Detroit surpassed that last Sunday but are still average at home. Cole Ragans made the transition from reliever to starter and it has been great. He made 17 relief appearances with a 5.92 ERA and entered the rotation in mid-June and in 11 starts, he has a 2.48 ERA to go along with 81 strikeouts for an 11.61 K/9 rate which would put him near the top if qualified. The Tigers have struck out 1,441 times this season, ninth most in baseball. Sawyer Gipson-Long is making a case for a rotation spot next season. He posted a 3.74 ERA in Double-A Erie and then earned a promotion to Toledo, where he had a 5.45 ERA so nothing special. He has put up a 2.40 ERA through three starts in Detroit but has not gone more than five innings. 10* (963) Kansas City Royals |
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09-27-23 | Cubs +144 v. Braves | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We lost a tough one with the Cubs last night as they blew a 5-0 lead which snapped a three-game winning streak with a lot on the line. Chicago is now a game behind Arizona for the second spot and just a half-game ahead of Miami for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. With the win last night and a Dodgers split, the Braves have a four-game lead over Los Angeles for the best record in the National League. Atlanta is just 11-11 over its last 22 games and it is laying a similar number tonight in a less advantageous pitching matchup against a team playing for a lot more. Darius Vines will be making a spot start after Max Fried will miss his place with a blister. Vines has limited experience in the Majors and has been solid with a 3.27 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 11 innings but this is his most pressured spot. Jameson Taillon had a great six-game stretch with a 2.19 ERA in July-August before struggling by allowing 23 runs over his next five outings but has bounced back at the right times. He has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last three starts. 10* (905) Chicago Cubs |
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09-27-23 | Nationals +222 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Baltimore made it three straight wins with a 1-0 victory last night to lower its magic number to three to win the American League East. There is a lot to play for at this point and the line reflects that with the value on the road spoiler. Washington has lost two straight and four of five but it has been a better than expected season as it has exceeded its projected win total by 10 games already. The Nationals are a respectable seven games under .500 on the road and up just over 20 units. Pat Corbin gets the ball for Washington and he looks to bounce back from a bad game against Atlanta in his final outing. He opened August great with a 2.70 ERA in his first four starts but then was shelled by the Blue Jays and Mets in his next two starts before limiting Pittsburgh and Milwaukee to three runs over 12.2 innings. Grayson Rodriguez has been rock solid since coming back into the rotation in mid-July. He has gone 11 straight starts of allowing three runs or less but the wins have not been the majority as the Orioles are 6-6 in his 12 starts since coming back including 3-3 at home. 10* (929) Washington Nationals |
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09-26-23 | Cubs +122 v. Braves | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. The Cubs are coming off a weekend sweep of Colorado to bring in a three-game winning streak into its biggest week of a baseball season in a while. Chicago is tied with Arizona for the No. 2 Wild Card spot in the National League but Miami is just one game back with the Reds and Giants still lurking. The Braves took three of four in Washington and have a three and a half game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. Going back further, they have not been at their best as since a six-game winning streak, they have gone just 10-11 over their last 21 games. Justin Steele was the league leader in ERA for quite some time and he brought in a 2.83 ERA through his first 27 starts after going five straight starts of allowing two runs or less but was lit up in his last two outings, giving up six runs in each over nine combined innings. His biggest start of the season comes tonight. Bryce Elder was also up in the ERA leaderboard but he slipped back a while and has been really inconsistent. He has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts and going back to early July, he has put up a 5.40 ERA in his last 13 starts after posting a 2.45 ERA through his first 17 outings. 10* (957) Chicago Cubs |
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09-25-23 | Rangers v. Angels +167 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. The Rangers are coming off a home sweep of Seattle to make it five straight wins and they have taken over first place in the American League West with a 2.5-game lead over Houston. Texas closes the season with a six-game roadtrip and it is sitting just at .500 on the road this season. The Angels are coming off a 2-4 roadtrip and they have dropped nine of their last 11 games overall and like many teams in their position, it is about playing spoiler over the final week and they are catching a great number in this series opener. Patrick Sandoval had a rough three-game stretch where he allowed 14 runs but it coming off a solid bounce back effort and prior to that bad stretch, he had a run of eight straight starts where he allowed two runs or fewer seven times. He does not give up the big blasts as he has allowed only 12 home runs and never more than one in any game. Jon Gray got off to a great start this season but he has regressed since June and has been especially bad of late. He has posted a 7.6 ERA over his last six starts while going more than five innings only once. He has not made it out of the fourth inning in each of his last three outings and is severely overpriced here. 10* (904) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-23-23 | Cardinals +174 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 174 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. San Diego is making a run in the National League Wild Card as it has won eight straight games and sits four games back. The problem is there are four teams to leapfrog with only eight games remaining so time has basically run out and this is a good spot for the streak to end. St. Louis has dropped four straight games after the loss last night and the offense has averaged only 1.8 rpg over this skid. The Cardinals have a shot to get the bats going tonight at a good price. Jake Woodford gets the ball for the Cardinals and will be making his first start in the bigs since April. He had been out since late June with a right shoulder strain and is coming off a solid rehab stint and in his last one, he allowed just one hit while striking out six over five shutout innings in a rehab start with Double-A Springfield on Wednesday. Nick Martinez gets another spot outing for San Diego as he made a pair of starts in August and then went back to the bullpen before another start on Sunday. He went three innings, which was the case for all three and this will basically be a bullpen game for the Padres who went through four relivers last night. 10* (911) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-22-23 | Mets +145 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Mets lost the series opener last night 5-4 as it once again fell to a lefty starter where they are now 15-33 on the season but square off against a struggling righty tonight to look to improve their 56-49 record against right-handed starters. With a losing season record guaranteed, it is time to just play spoiler. The Phillies have won two straight games and five of their last seven following a 5-9 stretch and they are all but guaranteed a playoff spot. They are five games up from the No. 4 spot and are three games ahead of Arizona for the top spot but have a challenge tonight. Tylor Megill got back into the rotation in early August and it was not a good start as he allowed 10 runs in 10 innings over two starts but has settled down and staking a claim for next season. He has a 3.13 ERA over his last six starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of those. Taijuan Walker burst into the rotation with a great stretch through June where he posted a 3.93 ERA over his first 17 starts but he has a 5.12 ERA over his last 12 outings, allowing four runs or more six times. Three of those have been in his last three where his ERA is 7.27. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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09-22-23 | Blue Jays +139 v. Rays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 139 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Toronto had its five-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Yankees and Gerrit Cole who has been unbeatable at home with New York now 16-2 in his 18 home starts. The Blue Jays hold down the No. 3 Wild Card spot by a half-game in the American League with nine games left. Tampa Bay has secured its playoff spot and sits a game and a half behind Baltimore in the American League East with eight games remaining. The Rays are just 2-3 over their last five games and a favorable schedule has gotten them to within striking distance. Chris Bassitt has had a great season and looks to build off three quality outings over his last four starts. He has pitched better at home than on the road but the away numbers are skewed because of three bad starts June and prior. Take those away and his road ERA goes from 4.64 in 15 outings to 2.77 in the other 12 starts. Tyler Glasnow has been the ace of the staff with Shane McClanahan being out since early August. He has not looked the part of late as he has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings over his last two starts and he has allowed four runs or more in three of his last six outings. 10* (965) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-21-23 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | Top | 8-6 | Win | 155 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. After losing the opener of this series 14-1 on Tuesday, the Pirates bats responded with a 13-7 win last night as they roughed up Justin Steele in the fourth inning. Pittsburgh has won five of its last eight games and will continue to play spoiler the remainder of the season and catching a number here. Chicago has seen a likely playoff spot go to far from a guarantee quickly as it has lost six of its last seven games and is 3-9 over its last 12 games. The Cubs still remain in the No. 3 spot in the National League Wild Card, percentage points ahead of Miami but are one of four teams within two and a half games vying for two spots. Johan Oviedo has been pitching well down the stretch following a mid-August blip. He has posted a 2.73 ERA over his last five starts which includes a complete game shutout in the mix. He has allowed three runs or less in 17 of his last 23 outings. Kyle Hendricks has followed a similar path this season although he has been a little more inconsistent of late making him an overpriced favorite. Chicago had a nice run of going 7-2 in a nine-start stretch but the Cubs have gone just 4-7 in his last 11 outings. 10* (907) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-20-23 | Brewers +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Signature Sweet Spot. Milwaukee snapped a two-game slide with a 7-3 win on Tuesday to keep its lead in the National League Central at six games over the Cubs with 11 games remaining. The Brewers improved to 40-36 on the road for +6.9 units and yet come in as the slight underdogs tonight. St. Louis had won two straight games including the milestone 200th win for Adam Wainwright and losses have been contagious all season. The Cardinals are now 17 games under .500 and they have dropped of their last 17 games following a loss including six of seven when the first loss follows a win. After a rough July and August where he posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in nine starts, Adrian Houser was put on the IL but he returned last week and put up a solid effort against Miami, allowing two runs on five hits and no walks over five innings. His return is crucial for the late and postseason for the Brewers. Zack Thompson got back into the rotation in early August after one June start and was solid with a 3.90 ERA in six starts but posted his worst outing last time out where he allowed four runs over five innings against the Phillies. His last three starts have all been in fact his worst since his return and now he is favored once again. 10* (961) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-19-23 | Angels +187 v. Rays | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Angels were sniffing the postseason at one point and made some small moved to bolster their roster but injuries to their two stars were too much to overcome. They have lost five straight games heading into this series but this roster is full of players getting looks for next season so there is zero quit. Tampa Bay opened its four-game set at Baltimore with a pair of wins to tie for the American League East lead but it dropped the final two games and is now 2.5 games back. The Rays have clinched a playoff berth however and do not have an ideal matchup tonight at this price especially. Patrick Sandoval has had a rough three-game stretch where he has allowed 14 runs but prior to that he had a run of eight straight starts where he allowed two runs or fewer seven times. He does not give up the big blasts as he has allowed only 11 home runs and never more than one in any game. Taj Bradley is back in the rotation which is mostly because of necessity due to injuries. He posted a 5.67 ERA in 16 starts before being optioned to AAA and while he came back with a solid outing against Cleveland, he has allowed eight runs in 11 innings in his last two starts, including five home runs given up. 10* (913) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-19-23 | Twins v. Reds +133 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Minnesota remains in cruise control as it is 16-14 in its last 20 games following a 7-3 loss last night. The Twins have not won more than two consecutive games since early August and at just seven games over .500. they have a seven-game lead in the American League Central only because the rest of the division is trash. Cincinnati has picked it up in its quest for a Wild Card berth as the win last night put the Reds at 10-6 in September and every game counts at this point. Cincinnati is one of four teams separated by only one games vying for two wild card spots with it being currently tied for the third spot with Chicago. Kenta Maeda gets the ball for the Twins and he is coming off a rare quality outing after going five straight games without one. He has been very consistent to his credit as he has allowed more than three runs only once in his last 15 starts but he does not go deep and the Twins are 1-4 in his last five road starts. Part of the reason for the underdog number at home is that Fernando Cruz gets the start as the opener in what will be a bullpen game with Ben Lively likely getting the bulk relief work. This is not a bad setup for the Reds which have a strong bullpen with one of the best WHIPs in baseball. 10* (926) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-18-23 | Mets +142 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 142 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Marlins bats came alive when needed this weekend as they scored 32 run in their three-game sweep over Atlanta. To put that in perspective, they scored 28 runs in their previous nine games. Miami one of four teams within a half game of the final two Wild Card spots in the National League. New York salvaged the series finale against the Reds in an 8-4 win on Sunday thanks to another strong effort from Jose Quintana. The Mets picked up a rare win over a lefty where they are 15-31 but have gone 54-49 against right-handed starters and have a good pitching matchup tonight. While the Mets season is dead, some players are playing for next season and one of those is Jose Butto who looks to make a strong case for the rotation. He made a couple decent starts in April and then went up and down from AAA with a couple relief appearances before making two start to open the month and both were good as he allowed three runs over 11.1 combined innings. Edward Cabrera is back in the rotation, making his first start since July after being sent down to AAA. He made two bulk relief appearances to open the month and he did not allow much damage but his command issues are still there as he walked six in 4.2 innings last time out. Overall, he has 60 walks in just 85.2 innings. 10* (951) New York Mets |
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09-17-23 | Giants v. Rockies +155 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Francisco is starting to play itself out of the Wild Card in the National League as it lost both game of the doubleheader on Saturday to make it three straight losses. The Giants are now 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot with three teams to surpass. Colorado is on a five-game winning streak which comes right after five straight losses and the difference has been playing at home. The Rockies are 22-53 on the road which is tied with Oakland for the second worst road record in baseball but they are only five games under .500 at home and up six units. Sean Manaea will be getting another rare start on Sunday following a start Tuesday which went well but still resulted in a loss as he has been coming out of the bullpen since May. He has made seven starts this season and it has not gone well with a 6.35 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in just 28.1 innings. Chris Flexen has been up and down this season but has been better after an awful April as he re-entered the rotation in late July. He is coming off a good outing against the Cubs where he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings and has allowed three runs or less in three of his last five starts. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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09-17-23 | Nationals +236 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 236 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Washington lost its fifth straight game on Saturday in a 9-5 loss with Milwaukee scoring four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to pull it out. The Nationals have been a solid play on team this season as they are up over 18 units with all of that success coming on the road at +18.9 units. Milwaukee has won three straight games and the Brewers have increased their lead in the National League Central to 6.5 games over the Cubs. They are again laying a massive number and while yesterday was feasible with Corbin Burnes but not today. Pat Corbin gets the ball for Washington and he looks to build off a solid performance. He opened August great with a 2.70 ERA in his first four starts but then was shelled by the Blue Jays and Mets in his next two starts before limiting Pittsburgh to two runs on five hits and eight strikeouts over 6.2 innings and most important, no home runs allowed. Brandon Woodruff has been very solid since coming back into the rotation in August and will be an important part of the playoff rotation. He is coming off a complete game shutout over Miami where he allowed just six hits and one walk but did toss 106 pitches. 10* (905) Washington Nationals |
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09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +134 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our I.L. Game of the Month. Seattle had its two-game winning streak snapped with a 6-3 loss last night. The Mariners remain in the third spot in the American League Wild Card but are just a half game ahead of Toronto. They are still 10 games over .500 at home and has a good pitching matchup as this number is priced by name. Since a 24-4 run that started August 1, the Dodgers have not been playing their best as they are 6-8 over their last 14 games and trail the Braves by 6.5 games with 16 games remaining so catching them for the best record in the National League is likely gone. Clayton Kershaw missed all of July and part of August and he has been brought back slowly and that will be the case for the rest of the regular season. He has not gone more than five innings and has not surpassed 84 pitches in his five starts and is coming off his worst outing of the bunch. Also, he has given up one-third of his total home runs allowed over this stretch. Bryce Miller has had five bad outings this season out of his 22 total starts and when he has been good, he has been really good. He has a 4.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP overall and take out those five bad starts and he has put up a 2.00 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his other 18 outings, allowing one run or less 12 times. 10* (980) Seattle Mariners |
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09-15-23 | Nationals +171 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Washington won the opener in Pittsburgh but dropped the final three games of the series including a 2-0 shutout loss yesterday. The Nationals have been a solid play on team this season as they are up over 20 units with all of that success coming on the road at +20.9 units. Milwaukee took three of four against Miami following a 4-2 victory Thursday and the Brewers have increased their lead in the National League Central to 4.5 games over the Cubs. They are laying a huge price here and at 14 games over .500 at home, they are just +4.9 units. Jake Irvin has been on a solid run as he continues a successful rookie campaign. Over his last seven starts, he has a 2.75 ERA as he has allowed three runs or less in all seven of those games. In 22 starts overall, he has limited the damage by allowing more than four runs only once. Wade Miley has missed a month of action twice this season and that should help him going forward as he just surpassed 100 innings in his last start. He has been consistent for the most part but more erratic of late with a 4.50 ERA over his last five starts. 10* (905) Washington Nationals |
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09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +151 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh has won three straight games after taking three of four against Washington and while it has been another non-contending season, the Pirates young roster has been solid. They are now just one game under .500 at home and +3.9 units. The Yankees are coming off a split with Boston yesterday and it has been a solid run of late as they are 12-4 over their last 16 games but it is too little, too late. New York is 7.5 games out of the Wild Card. Johan Oviedo is coming off a couple abbreviated outings and has had a pretty decent season all things considered through 29 starts. He has allowed five runs or more six times but take those out and his ERA drops from 4.35 to an outstanding 2.83 in his other 23 starts so while he has a few blowups, he has been really good. Gerrit Cole has been dominant this season and went over 200 strikeouts in his last outing to post a 204:45 K:BB ratio. He is the overwhelming favorite to win the American League Cy Young but he is out of Yankee Stadium tonight and New York is 15-2 in his 17 home starts but just 5-8 in his 13 road outings despite the positive numbers. 10* (926) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-14-23 | Rays +122 v. Orioles | Top | 4-3 | Win | 122 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Divisional Game of the Month. This series will go a long way in deciding the American League East as it is the last between Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The Rays are two games back following a 5-4 win over Minnesota and they are now 18-7 over their last 25 games to keep pace. The Orioles suffered their second straight loss on Wednesday as they fell 1-0 to the Cardinals and they have scored just three runs over the two games. Going back, Baltimore has been just as hot, going 20-8 over its last 28 games to keep hold of first place in the division. Aaron Civale has been a great addition to the rotation since coming over from Cleveland and he is actually coming off his worst start of the season for both teams as he allowed four runs over five innings which snapped six straight outings of allowing three runs or fewer with Tampa Bay. He has a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 20 overall starts this season. Kyle Bradish has been pitching great as well as he has allowed two runs or less in six straight starts including three straight where he has identical lines of two runs allowed in six innings. Over his last nine starts, he has faced four non-playoff teams and put up a 1.59 ERA but in the five outings against playoff teams, he has posted a 3.98 ERA. 10* (961) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-13-23 | Padres +120 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 120 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Divisional Game of the Year. San Diego continues to go back and forth being unable to put any sort of big winning streak together and last night was another bad night for the pitching. The Padres allowed 11 runs and have no given up an average of 9.5 rpg over their last four games but that changes tonight. The Dodgers lost the series opener but got it back last night and have locked up the National League West but remain 6.5 games behind Atlanta for the best record in the National League with a less than likely chance to catch the Braves. We have played against Blake Snell plenty this season and it has paid off as despite his awesome numbers, the wins were not coming when he has been a big favorite. Now, he is an underdog tonight in a good spot as he looks to add to his string of allowing two runs or less in 18 of his last 20 starts with the other two being just three runs allowed. He has a 2.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road. The goal now is the Cy Young where he is the favorite at -220. Ryan Pepoit has made two starts and both were dominant as he has gone 12 innings combined without allowing a run while giving up only three hits and one walk. He does not strike many out which goes back to last season as well after being an average late call up. 10* (911) San Diego Padres |
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09-12-23 | Padres +141 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Diego snapped a two-game losing streak with an 11-8 win aided by a three-run home run in the ninth inning from Juan Soto. The Padres were on a 5-2 run prior to the mini slide and while it has been an awful season, they are getting a great number. The Dodgers have locked up the National League West and are now 6.5 games behind Atlanta for the best record in the National League with a less than likely chance to catch the Braves. They have a big disadvantage on the mound tonight. Lance Lynn has been all over the place this season and it is not getting better. In 28 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer only 13 times and has given up five or more runs 10 times which includes seven runs or more six times. He has allowed 15 runs in his last two starts and the long ball has been the issue with 40 home runs allowed on the season. Michael Wacha missed six weeks starting in early June but he has come back nicely and it has been a good season overall after a shaky start. The posted a 6.75 ERA through his first five starts in April but over his last 15 outings, he has a 1.88 ERA and unlike Lynn, he has allowed only eight home runs over this stretch. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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09-12-23 | Angels +188 v. Mariners | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Seattle put together a massive 22-6 run to move into first place in the American League West but has tailed off with a 4-9 stretch over its last 13 games following an extra-inning loss last night. The Mariners are now 2.5 games behind Houston in the American League West while a half game out of the Wild Card. The Angels have won three straight games and four of their last five following a 1-9 stretch that included a six-game losing streak. Los Angeles tried to make some late season moves but they did not pan out but continue to fight and has a good matchup on the mound tonight. Patrick Sandoval has been really good for the majority of the season as he has allowed two runs or less in 15 of his 25 starts and looks to bounce back from a pair of rare bad games where he allowed nine runs over 8.2 innings. In 131.2 innings on the season, he has allowed only 10 home runs. Bryan Woo has had a decent rookie season but it has been going in the wrong direction. He had a 3.63 ERA in his first seven starts that included a blowout in his debut but in his last seven starts, he has a 5.35 ERA ,and is coming off an outing against the Reds where he allowed five runs over five innings. 10* (973) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-11-23 | Diamondbacks +128 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 128 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our N.L. Game of the Month. Arizona had its four-game winning streak snapped with a 5-2 loss on Sunday and continues its roadtrip with plenty on the line. The Diamondbacks remain in the third Wild Card spot in the National League with three teams in pursuit that all won on Sunday. The Mets snapped their three-game losing streak with a series finale win over the Twins and head home as an overpriced favorite. New York is two games over .500 at home but down over eight units, which reflects the numbers behind them. Jose Quintana has put together two straight quality outings and he has been exceptional for the most part since entering the rotation in July. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts but it matters little with the Mets going 2-7 in those games including 0-3 at home. Zach Davies has been all over the place this season and is coming off another poor start but he has been able to rebound. He allowed five runs against Colorado and in his previous three starts where he allowed four or more runs, he has followed that up with a 2.08 ERA in the three follow up outings. 10* (907) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-10-23 | Rockies +210 v. Giants | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Francisco has won the first two games of this series but that came after six straight losses and since a good start to August, the Giants are 11-21 over their last 32 games and have fallen 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League with three teams to pass. The Rockies have had a miserable season as expected and the roadtrip is off to a 1-4 start following a poor 2-10 stretch but that was against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Toronto, four of the best teams in baseball. There is more value today against an unproven pitcher. Keaton Winn will get the start for the Giants which will be just his third start of the season and his first since July 4. He is coming off a relief appearance a week ago where he tossed five scoreless innings but starting is a different story with pressure building. Peter Lambert is in his first full rotation run since 2019 and it has been pretty solid for the most part. In 10 starts, he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and he has allowed three runs or less in seven starts. His last four road starts have come against teams currently in playoff positions. 10* (961) Colorado Rockies |
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09-10-23 | Mets +175 v. Twins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 175 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Mets have lost the first two games of this series and have lost three straight overall following a solid 4-1 run and they look to avoid the sweep today. It has been a rough season all around but are catching a good number today and the biggest of the series. The Twins have won six of their last eight games and have pretty much locked up the American League Central as they have a 7.5-game lead over Cleveland. However, they are in the weakest division and would not even be in the Wild Card as they would be four games back. Pablo Lopez is the reason for the big number as he is coming off a pair of quality outings against Cleveland and has had a solid run going back to July. However, he has been below average at home and has given up a ton of baserunners of late with a 1.78 WHIP over his last four starts. Tylor Megill has some gaudy overall numbers but those were because of just a few bad starts. In 21 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of those including each of his last four where he has a 3.86 ERA with the last three all against teams better than the Twins. 10* (979) New York Mets |
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09-09-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our Divisional Game of the Month. St. Louis won the series opener last night and has now won four of its last five games but it has no business being a road favorite, a role it has been in only eight times since June 21 and has gone 3-5. Only two of those games were against playoff contenders and the Cardinals lost both to the Cubs. Cincinnati has lost two straight games following a 4-1 run and the Reds are now 4-4 on their current homestand. A Wild Card spot in the National League is still very much in their grasp as they are a game and a half out with only Arizona and Miami ahead of them for that final spot. Zach Thompson got back into the rotation in early August and he has pitched fine but nothing enough to make him a favorite here. He is coming off his best start, allowing three runs over seven innings but that was against the Pirates are home and he has made only one road start over this stretch, also against Pittsburgh. Carson Spiers came from Double-A Chattanooga to the majors last weekend and it was not a great debut, striking out seven while allowing three earned runs on five hits and two walks over four innings. He has his feet wet and has had a normal rest period with no travel in-between. 10* (908) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-08-23 | Rockies +196 v. Giants | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Francisco is playing itself right out of the playoffs as it has lost six straight games and since a good start to August, the Giants are 9-21 over their last 30 games and have fallen 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League with three teams to pass. The Rockies have had a miserable season as expected and is coming off a 2-1 series loss in Arizona following a poor 2-10 stretch but that was against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Toronto, four of the best teams in baseball. Now they take a step down and have great value. Ty Blach has mainly pitched out of the bullpen the last two seasons but entered the rotation in late July and the results have been solid as he has a 3.54 ERA in eight starts. He is coming off his worst outing but that was at home against Toronto and in five road starts, he has a 3.28 ERA 1.22 WHIP. Kyle Harrison has made three starts since getting called up with mixed results. He allowed eight runs in nine innings sandwiched around a quality start against the Reds, his lone home outing. Clearly, he is more comfortable here but he should not be laying a number like this. 10* (961) Colorado Rockies |
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09-08-23 | Dodgers v. Nationals +149 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Dodgers salvaged the series finale against the Marlins and have been limping along with a 2-5 record over their last seven games and are six games behind the Braves for best record in the National League. Los Angeles is just eight games over .500 on the road compared to 23 games over .500 at home. Washington snapped a six-game skid with a win against the Mets on Wednesday. Going back to early-July, the Nationals are 29-23 over their last 52 games and on the season, +21.6 units. Mackenzie Gore has put together a fine season with very few blowups along the way. He has allowed five runs or more only five times and four of those came on the road with the only occurrence at home coming against the Cardinals back in June. He has a 1.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 3.46 ERA in 11 home outings. Emmet Sheehan opened his season with a pair of quality starts but then had a very rough stretch of four games but bounced back with a solid outing against the Reds. He was send down to AAA before being recalled earlier this month and pitched four solid innings but that was at home where he has a 3.14 ERA in six games compared to a 9.88 ERA in three road starts. 10* (958) Washington Nationals |
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09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our American League Game of the Month. Detroit lost last night with a tough break as Matt Manning had to exit the game after one inning after a comebacker fractured his foot, the second time that has happened this season. The Tigers have lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and they are just two games under .500 on the road and won over 12 units. The Yankees have won five straight games after winning the first two games of this series. It is too little, too late however for New York as it is 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They are back over .500 but it has been a major disappointment for sure. Eduardo Rodriguez was having a sensational season before he was forced to miss five weeks with a finger injury but has come back strong. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 starts with his road numbers being slightly better and he is dedicated after exercising his no-trade clause and not getting dealt to the Dodgers. Carlos Rodon got a late start to the season as he did not make his first start until July. He went through some struggles and while he has settled down over his last three outings, he has a 5.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts while allowing 11 home runs. The Yankees are just 2-7 in those games while down 7.2 units. 10* (909) Detroit Tigers |
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09-06-23 | Tigers +155 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Yankees are picking up some steam as they have won four straight games following a 5-1 series opening win last night behind a gem from Gerrit Cole. It is too little, too late however for New York as it is 7.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Detroit has its four-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and the Tigers have quietly exceeded expectations this season. They have played especially good on the road where the Tigers are just one game under .500 and have won just over 13 units thanks to prices like this. Clarke Schmidt has been very consistent this season as he has allowed three runs or less in 22 of 27 starts but he does not go deep into games so despite the low run totals, he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and has just four quality outings to his credit. The Yankees are 11-16 in those games including 5-9 at home. Matt Manning was a late callup last season and was solid with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts and while he made the rotation this year, he broke his foot after two starts. He has posted a 3.31 ERA in 12 starts since his return and has been on an outstanding stretch with a 0.38 ERA over his last four starts covering 23.2 innings. 10* (971) Detroit Tigers |
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09-06-23 | Red Sox +153 v. Rays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We lost a tough one with Boston last night in extra innings but will come back with the Red Sox again as their three-game winning streak was snapped which came after a five-game losing streak. The Wild Card is still in play but the Red Sox are now five games out of the final playoff spot. Tampa Bay is 2-3 over its last five games following a four-game winning streak and an 8-1 run. Despite being 29 games over .500, the Rays are just +8.5 units as they remain overpriced since their amazing 29-7 start and the markets have not caught up to their 55-48 run since then. Nick Pivetta will be making his first start since August 15 as he has made four relief appearances since then, three extended ones that came in bullpen games. He was hit hard against the Dodgers in one of those but in the three on the road, he posted a 3.12 ERA over 8.2 innings and will be extended here. Tyler Glasnow has been great this season since coming off the IL as he has posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 16 starts. He has tossed two straight quality outings following a blowup against the Angels and while his numbers at home are great as well, Tampa Bay is just 4-4 in his eight home outings. 10* (969) Boston Red Sox |
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09-05-23 | Red Sox +150 v. Rays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Boston is trying to stay alive in the American League Wild Card race as it has won three straight games including a 7-3 series opening win yesterday which came after a five-game losing streak. There is work to be done as the Red Sox are 4.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Tampa Bay is 1-3 over its last four games following a four-game winning streak and 8-1 run. Despite being 28 games over .500, the Rays are just +7.5 units as they remain overpriced since their amazing 29-7 start and the markets have not caught up to their 54-48 run since then. Kutter Crawford opened the season by allowing seven runs against the Pirates, which was easily his worst start of the season but came close last time out as he allowed six runs in 2.2 innings against Houston. Everything in-between has been great though as he has a 3.58 ERA in his other 16 outings. Zach Eflin is coming off one of his best starts, allowing no runs over 6.1 innings at Miami and he has thrown three straight quality games but he has had his share of recent poor showings as he had a 5.10 ERA over a six-game stretch prior to the recent three games. He has a 6.30 ERA in his last four home outings. 10* (917) Boston Red Sox |
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09-05-23 | Mariners v. Reds +144 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 144 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Seattle put together a massive 21-5 run to move into first place in the American League West but has tailed off slightly with a 2-4 stretch over its last six games. The Mariners are still tied for first place in the division but one game just separates the three teams. Cincinnati has won three of its last four games and while it is 5.5 games out in the National League Central, the Reds are right in the Wild Card mix. They are tied with Arizona for third place with four teams within one game vying for that final playoff spot. Connor Phillips makes his Major League debut as the No. 4 ranked prospect in the organization recently had a two-start rough patch in which he gave up 10 runs over three combined innings while pitching through illness but allowed just three hits and a walk while striking out six in six innings in his last start. Bryce Miller has been a great part of the Mariners rotation and he has pitched good of late but still has not been the same since he first came up. After a 1.15 ERA through his first five starts back in May, he has a 5.07 ERA over his last 15 starts including a 6.46 ERA over his last six road starts. 10* (930) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-04-23 | Astros -102 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our Divisional Game of the Month. Houston was swept at home against the Yankees and head to Arlington on a three-game slide following a five-game winning streak. The Astros are 42-27 on the road which is the third best road record in baseball while netting 13.8 units. Texas was able to salvage the series finale against the Twins with a 6-5 win on a walk-off home run to snap a three-game losing streak. The Rangers are now 4-12 in their last 16 games, with three of those wins coming by just one run. The Rangers were in first place in the American League West for almost the entire season and are only a 1.5 games away from missing the playoffs altogether. J.P. France was lights out through 17 starts as he had a 2.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP before a visit from Boston two starts back as he was lit up for 10 runs on 11 hits in just 2.1 innings. He bounced back with a near quality start against those same Red Sox and he remains on the road where he has a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Heaney has been pitching very well as he has allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts but hade it through six innings only once. Going back, it has been the only time he has gone that far over his last 16 outings and he brings in a 4.29 ERA. 10* (961) Houston Astros |
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09-03-23 | Pirates +129 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Pirates came through for us last night and while the price is not as big today, it is still inflated. The victory made it five straight wins and going back, the Pirates are 17-15 in their last 32 games which is nothing special but most of those wins were as underdogs. St. Louis lost for the sixth time in eight games and despite being five games worse that Pittsburgh, the Cardinals are again a mispriced favorite. St. Louis fell to 30-40 at home and down over 24 units and are at a pitching disadvantage today yet laying a significant price. Zack Thompson gets the start for the Cardinals and this will be just his fifth start of the season. His first four were decent but he has not gone more than five innings and he has a bullpen behind him that has been bad all season and went six pitchers deep over 4.1 innings last night. Johan Oviedo has had a pretty decent season all things considered through 27 starts. He has allowed five runs or more six times but take those out and his ERA drops from 4.20 to an outstanding 2.49 in his other 21 starts so while he has a few blowups, he has been really good. 10* (907) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-03-23 | Marlins v. Nationals +144 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Miami has grabbed the first three games of this series which snapped a two-game slide to get the Marlins two games over .500. They are on the outside looking in but have narrowed the gap, sitting one game back in the National League Wild Card. Washington has lost six of its last seven games following a profitable run of 11-3 in its previous 14 games and it has been a lengthy overall solid run. Going back to early-July, the Nationals are 28-21 over their last 49 games and on the season, +22.6 units. Josiah Gray gets the ball for Washington and he admittedly has slowed down some after a great first half. He has allowed four runs or more in four of five starts but that has been sandwiched in-between three quality outings and faces the worst offense over a seven-game stretch. Sandy Alcantara has been brilliant at times and awful in others as it has not been a good season for the Cy Young winner as he has a 4.28 ERA including a 4.61 ERA on the road. He has allowed four runs or more in 11 of his last 20 starts and was lit up here earlier in the season in his lone start against Washington. 10* (906) Washington Nationals |
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09-02-23 | Pirates +168 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-6 | Win | 168 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh won the series opener last night to make it four straight wins and going back, the Pirates are 17-15 in their last 32 games which is nothing special but most of those wins were as underdogs and they are getting another big one tonight. St. Louis lost for the fifth time in seven games and despite being four games worse that Pittsburgh, the Cardinals are laying a number like an elite team which they clearly are not. St. Louis fell to 30-39 at home and down -22.2 units because of prices like this. The Cardinals send Drew Rom to the hill for his third start. He pitched decent in his second outing, allowing two runs over 5.1 innings after getting shelled in his debut where he gave up eight runs on eight hits which happened to be against Pittsburgh. Thomas Hatch will be making another spot start as the opener after tossing three scoreless innings in this position 10 days ago against the Cardinals. Overall, he has a 2.70 ERA since coming to Pittsburgh and has more solid bullpen help behind him. 10* (957) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-02-23 | Twins +178 v. Rangers | Top | 9-7 | Win | 178 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Texas lost the series opener last night 5-1 and is now 3-11 in its last 14 games, with two of those wins coming by just one run. The Rangers have fallen out of first place in the American League West and are only a 1.5 games away from missing the playoffs altogether. Minnesota is now 5-3 over its last eight games and the win last night kept the Twins five games ahead of Cleveland in the American League Central. They are only five games over .500 but are catching an inflated number against a team going the wrong way. Dallas Keuchel will be making his fourth start for the Twins. His first one went very good but was hammered by the Phillies next time out on regular rest. He was given nine days off and bounced back with a gem against the Pirates and has been given extended rest for this one also. Jordan Montgomery has pitched well since coming over from St. Louis as he has a 2.30 ERA in five starts but Texas is just 3-2 in those games and his worst outing was his last one which came against the Twins last weekend in a 7-6 loss. 10* (973) Minnesota Twins |
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09-01-23 | Rays v. Guardians +162 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 162 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay has won four straight games and eight of its last nine to seize control of the American League Wild Card by 5.5 games over Houston. The Rays are still in the hunt in the East Division as they trail Baltimore by a game and a half. This is another important series for Cleveland which took two of three at Minnesota to slightly close the gap in the American League Central where they are now five games back with another series against the Twins upcoming next at home. Cal Quantrill is coming off his second stint on the IL and looks to be back to full health to help the Guardians on their stretch run. He looked sharp in his fourth and final rehab as he struck out six and allowed two runs on five hits and no walks over 7.1 innings. Tyler Glasnow has been great since entering the rotation in late May as he has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1305 WHIP in 15 starts with a couple blowups in there. The last one came in his last road start against the Angels as he allowed a season high eight hits. 10* (916) Cleveland Guardians |
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09-01-23 | Marlins v. Nationals +150 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Miami took the opener of this series last night 6-1 behind a great start by Braxton Garrett and that snapped a two-game slide to get the Marlins back to .500. They are on the outside looking in, sitting three games back in the National League Wild Card. Washington has lost four of its last five games but it has been a lengthy overall solid run. Going back to early-July, the Nationals are 28-19 over their last 47 games and while not great at home, they are just a half-game worse than what Miami is on the road. Jake Irvin has been on a solid run as he continues a successful rookie campaign. Over his last five starts, he has a 2.54 ERA and he is coming off two of his best consecutive outings of the season as he allowed one run on nine hits and five walks over 12 combined innings. Eury Perez is on a similar run as he has tossed two straight shutout games over 12 combined innings and those were just his third and fourth starts since coming back from injury. His first two were not good and expect the Marlins to continue to bring their prized prospect back slowly. 10* (906) Washington Nationals |
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08-30-23 | Rays v. Marlins +105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our I.L. Game of the Month. Tampa Bay won the opener of this two-game set 11-2 to make it three straight wins and it has gone 9-2 over its last 11 games. The Rays are going to be a huge public play tonight based on the win last night, the recent run and the short price making this a solid contrarian play. The Marlins continue their struggles which also adds to the public opposition. Miami is back to .500 on the season as it has gone 3-9 over its last 12 games and it is now three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. This could be a big one at home with a four-game set at Washington upcoming. Jesus Luzardo had a massive June-July run where he had seven straight starts of allowing two runs or fewer, posting a 1.48 ERA in those games but the wheels fell off as he allowed 20 runs over his next four outings. He bounced back with six shutout innings against the Padres and has been solid at home with a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. Zach Eflin has thrown two straight quality games but he has been up and down of late with a 4.29 ERA over his last eight starts including a 5.10 ERA prior to the recent two games. Miami has been a problem to him as he has an 8.36 ERA in three starts the last two seasons. Here, we play on home teams revenging a home loss of six runs or more, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 40-19 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (926) Miami Marlins |
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08-29-23 | Braves v. Rockies +235 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Colorado snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in the series finale with Baltimore on Sunday before giving that back last night in a 14-4 loss. The Rockies were down just one run going into the seventh and they are still in the plus at home. Atlanta dropped its series finale in San Francisco prior to the win last night and come in as a much bigger favorite tonight despite a much tighter pitching matchup. The Braves are just +6.7 units on the road despite being 18 games over .500. Charlie Morton has not allowed a run over his last three starts as he blanked the Mets twice and the Yankees with the last two coming at home. Prior to the road game against the Mets, he allowed nine runs over eight innings in his previous two road starts. Peter Lambert has pitched well in his first eight starts since not being a starter since late 2021. He did not allow a run in his first three outings and then after a pair of not good ones. He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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08-29-23 | Padres v. Cardinals +141 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 141 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Padres won the series opener last night 4-1 to snap a three-game losing streak and victories have been few and far between. San Diego has won consecutive games only once since the beginning of August, going 1-7 in its last eight games following a win. The loss made it four straight for the Cardinals and while they are not catching the same big number as last night, they are a significant home underdog again despite both teams having similar paths all season. Seth Lugo is favored again on the road following a pair of great outings but those were at home. He tossed two shutout games against Arizona and Miami, both covering six innings and while he has solid road numbers, the Padres are 2-8 in his 10 road starts. Zack Thompson will be making his fourth start since being reinserted into the rotation and he has been very good. He is coming off identical starts where he allowed two runs on six hits and he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the three previous outings. 10* (952) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-29-23 | Angels +157 v. Phillies | Top | 7-12 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Since trying to be a player at the trade deadline, it has gone south for the Angels as they are 7-17 this month following a 6-4 loss in the series opener last night. Rock bottom hit when Shohei Ohtani was shut down for the season but he remains in the lineup. The Phillies have won four straight games and six of their last seven following a 2-5 stretch. Philadelphia is leading the National League Wild Card by four games over the Cubs and are heavy home favorite despite being just +2.9 units at home. After tossing a no-hitter against Washington, Michael Lorenzen followed that up with another start against the Nationals and was lit up for six earned runs over 3.1 innings. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings after that so he has not looked good since his gem. Tyler Anderson had a great run going, posting a 3.22 ERA over seven starts that ended at the start of August. He has struggled over his last two games against Tampa Bay and Houston but additional rest will help as he is pitching on 10 days off. 10* (973) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-28-23 | Padres v. Cardinals +178 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. St. Louis was swept in Philadelphia to complete a 1-5 roadtrip as the disaster of a season rolls along. The Cardinals return home where they have not been much better as they are nine games under .500 and are catching a number from a team with an identical road mark. San Diego also got swept at Milwaukee over the weekend to make it six losses in nine games overall and that also made it six losses in their last seven road games to fall to 28-37 on the road for the season. The Padres come in as massive road favorites due to the pitching matchup. Blake Snell is the reason for the number as he has put himself into the Cy Young conversation with a 2.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 26 starts but the Padres are just 12-14. He has gone 17 straight starts allowing three runs or less but has not gone past six innings in 16 of those. Adam Wainwright is not having the final season of his career as he had hoped as he is coming off another poor outing to balloon his ERA to 8.61. He did have a promising start prior to that against the Mets which came at home. Here, we play against National League road teams hitting .250 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 to 1.35 going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.50 or worse and a WHIP of 1.65 or worse. This situation is 36-12 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-28-23 | Guardians +149 v. Twins | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Despite taking two of three in Toronto, the Guardians are six games behind Minnesota in the American League Central which is their only playoff shot being well back in the Wild Card. The Twins won three of four against the slumping Rangers following a 2-4 run. The pitching has been a real problem of late as Minnesota has allowed 5.7 rpg over their last six games while giving up an average of 7.2 rpg over their last five losses. Xzavion Curry was coming off his best and longest start since entering the rotation as he allowed just one run in six innings while striking out a season high six hitters before getting pulled after two innings against the Dodgers because of the weather. He has had one bad outing which was at Tampa Bay. Kenta Maeda does have a run of 11 straight starts of allowing three runs or less but only five of those resulted in quality outings. He has gone just nine innings over his last two starts while allowing six runs and he heads back home where he has a 5.57 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Here, we play on American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 50-24 (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-27-23 | Nationals +166 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We will ride Washington again as it continues its late season success with another win last night to make it three straight wins and goes for the sweep today. Going back to early-July, the Nationals are 27-15 over their last 42 games and are just one game under .500 on the road while up 24 units. Miami continues to struggle as the Friday loss made it three straight defeats. In contrast to Washington, the Marlins are 14-28 over their last 42 games which has knocked them from atop the Wild Card standings to three games back with three teams to leapfrog. Trevor Williams was going through a very rough stretch where he allowed 20 runs over a four-game stretch but is coming off his best outing of the season. He tossed six shutout innings against the Phillies, allowing only two hits and three walks. J.T. Chargois was activated from the IL and will make his first start of the season as the opener in this bullpen game. He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since the beginning of July but has no business being favored by this big of a number with a below average bullpen to begin with. 10* (955) Washington Nationals |
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08-27-23 | Astros v. Tigers +156 | Top | 17-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 9-2 victory on Saturday and it has not been a good stretch going back. The Astros are 5-8 over their last 13 games and are still in the No. 3 spot in the Wild Card while sitting a game behind the Rangers and Mariners in the American League West as they have been unable to make up ground. Detroit has alternated wins and losses over its last six games and it has been playing some decent baseball since early in the month. The Tigers are 10-7 over their last 17 games with half of those wins coming as underdogs of +145 or higher. This is the second time Justin Verlander faces his former team this season after allowing two runs in five innings while still with the Mets. He is coming off his best start since joining Houston as he shoutout Boston over six innings but has not looked good overall with a 4.50 ERA coming into that game. Alex Faedo came back into the rotation in late July and had a poor outing against Toronto but has pitched well since then. In four starts, he has a 2.08 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while striking out 17 covering 20.2 innings. 10* (966) Detroit Tigers |
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08-26-23 | Nationals +182 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 182 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Washington continues its late season success with a win last night and it is again catching an inflated number as one of the most profitable teams over the last couple months. Going back to early-July, they are 26-15 over their last 41 games and are just two games under .500 on the road while up over 22 units. Miami continues to struggle as the Friday loss came off another poor roadtrip. In contrast to Washington, the Marlins are 14-27 over their last 41 games which has knocked them from atop the Wild Card standings to 2.5 games back with three teams to leapfrog. Jake Irvin has been on a solid run as he continues a successful rookie campaign. Over his last four starts, he has a 2.82 ERA and he is coming off his best outing since early May as he shutout the Phillies over six innings on just five hits and two walks. Eury Perez is coming off a similar outing as he shutout the Dodgers over six innings which was just his third start since coming back from injury. His first two were not good an expect the Marlins to continue to bring their prized prospect back slowly. 10* (903) Washington Nationals |
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08-26-23 | Braves v. Giants +170 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Braves continue to dominate the National League East as they have a 13.5-game lead over the Phillies following their win last night. While Atlanta has dominated on the road this season, it is just 9-9 over its last 18 road games. The Giants could not carry over the momentum from the end of their roadtrip as they were handcuffed by Spencer Strider. It has not been a good stretch at 4-12 over its last 16 games but San Francisco is still just one game out of the final Wild Card spot. It will be a bullpen game for the Giants which is another reason for the big price with Ryan Walker getting the start. This will be his 11th opener and will go no more than three innings and he has been solid thus far, posting a 2.25 ERA and has not allowed an earned run in five straight starts. Max Fried will be making his fifth start since coming back from injury and the Braves are bringing him along slowly. He has been moderately effective but has a 5.17 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over his last three outings while allowing four runs in four innings in his lone road start over this stretch. 10* (902) San Francisco Giants |
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08-25-23 | Braves v. Giants +141 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Braves continue to dominate the National League East as they have a 13.5-game lead over the Phillies following a 7-2 homestand. While Atlanta has dominated on the road this season, it is just 8-9 over its last 17 road games. The Giants were able to salvage the series finale against Philadelphia after blowing a three-run lead in the ninth inning to win in extra innings. It has not been a good stretch at 4-11 over its last 15 games but San Francisco is still just a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot. Logan Webb opened the season by allowing four runs in each of his first four starts for a 4.94 ERA but since then he has a 3.10 ERA in 22 starts. Three of those first four games were on the road and coming off a poor road outing in Atlanta, he is back home where he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 outings. Spencer Strider has shown of late why he is one of the best starters in the game as he has tossed two straight shutout games, both lasting seven innings where he has allowed a combined four hits and five walks. He is back on the road where he has a 4.02 ERA in his last 10 road outings. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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08-25-23 | Reds +155 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. After taking a 2-1 in the top of the eighth inning, the Reds surrendered that lead to lose 3-2 and snap a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati is now four games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and just a half-game back in the Wild Card. Arizona suffered through a 1-8 stretch to open the month but has gone 9-4 since then including five straight wins to claw back into the playoff picture. The Diamondbacks have reclaimed the No. 3 Wild Card spot but only one game separates No. 2 through No. 5. Hunter Greene is coming off a horrible outing which is affecting this line. He made his first start since June 17 after a stint on the injured list and gave up nine runs and 10 hits and tied his career high by allowing five home runs. He came into that game with a 3.93 ERA in his previous 14 starts. Brandon Pfaadt had his early struggles but since coming back into the rotation, he has been solid. He is coming off his best starts of the season, allowing no runs on just one hit and three walks in seven innings against the Padres which puts him in that go against contrarian spot. 10* (959) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-25-23 | Nationals +190 v. Marlins | Top | 7-4 | Win | 190 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Washington continues to get disrespected despite playing some great baseball right now. The Nationals are coming off their fourth straight series win and going back to early-July, they are 25-15 over their last 40 games and are just three games under .500 on the road while up 20 units. Miami is coming off an off day following a 2-4 roadtrip and the struggles go further back. In contrast to Washington, the Marlins are 14-26 over their last 40 games which has knocked them from atop the Wild Card standings to two games back with three teams to leapfrog. The Nationals hand the ball to Joan Adon who has made only three starts with mixed results. He is coming off his worst performance where he allowed six runs in four innings but that came against the Phillies and he faces a much less intimidating lineup tonight. Braxton Garrett has been a great piece of this Miami rotation and is on a solid run of five straight starts of allowing three runs or less. A horrific start against Atlanta in April has inflated his numbers but he still has only three quality outings in his last 10 starts. 10* (951) Washington Nationals |
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08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our A.L. Game of the Month. Despite an off day, Texas was able to gain ground in the American League West for the first time in a while with Seattle and Houston both losing. The Rangers have lost six straight games and their lead is now one game over the Astros and 1.5 games over the Mariners. The Twins dropped the final two games against Milwaukee, the second coming in extra innings yesterday after slowing a late 6-3 lead. Minnesota still has a comfortable lead in the American League Central over Cleveland by 4.5 games but are just three games over .500 for the season. Pablo Lopez has been unscorable of late as he has gone three straight starts without allowing a run, covering 19 innings. His ERA has dropped to 3.51 after five consecutive quality outings but this will be the best offense he has seen despite the recent Rangers struggles. Andrew Heaney has had a couple consecutive short outings as he went 1.1 innings against the Giants because he was sick and then went only 3.2 innings against the Brewers feeling the effects of that with bad command. He is back to 100 percent and those short stints help going forward. Here, we play on American League teams averaging 5.4 or more rpg and after scoring four runs or less in four straight games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 52-24 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) Texas Rangers |
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08-23-23 | Mets +177 v. Braves | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Mets took the opener of this series but gave it back last night in a tough 3-2 loss. New York is 7-3 over its last 10 games so it has been playing well following a 2-9 stretch just prior to this. The Mets are catching a big number again but in a much more favorable matchup. The Braves snapped a two-game slide with the victory to increase their lead over the Dodgers back to 4.5 games for the best record in the National League. Despite being 21 games over .500 at home, they are just +5.3 units. Jose Quintana did not make his season debut until late July but he has made the most of it. He was slightly limited in his first outings but since then, he has tossed five straight quality outings for a 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP covering 30.2 innings and he has allowed just one home run overall. Charlie Morton remains solid despite his age and he is coming off two of his best consecutive starts of the season as he shutout the Mets and Yankees over a combined 11 innings. His ERA was 3.86 coming into those games which is still very good but not elite and not for a price like this. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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08-22-23 | Marlins +165 v. Padres | Top | 3-0 | Win | 165 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Diego won the series opener last night as it jumped ahead early 5-0 and did not look back despite the hits being even at 7-7. There has been no big run of late as the Padres continue to stumble with a 5-10 record over their last 15 games. Miami had won five of six games but has given that right back by going 1-5 over its last six games. The Marlins are still in the Wild Card hunt though as they are a game and a half out of the final spot but have to take over three teams. Blake Snell has put himself into the Cy Young conversation as he is now the second favorite at +300 as he has pitched his way up with a 2.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 25 starts but the Padres are just 12-13. He has gone 16 straight starts allowing three runs or less but has not gone past six innings in 15 of those. Jesus Luzardo had a massive June-July run where he had seven straight starts of allowing two runs or fewer, posting a 1.48 ERA in those games but the wheels have fallen off as he has allowed 20 runs over his last four outings but this is a good rebound spot against a struggling offense. 10* (907) Miami Marlins |
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08-22-23 | Giants +126 v. Phillies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Giants came up small for us last night but we will back them again. San Francisco is stuck in a 3-10 run but it is still in the third Wild Card spot with five teams separated by 1.5 games vying for two spots and the Giants remain just a half-game ahead of Arizona. Philadelphia is part of that mix as it sits atop the Wild Card standings, two and a half games ahead of the Cubs. The Phillies have not been playing great as they are 3-5 over their last eight games and have not won consecutive games since August 10-11. The Giants called up No. 1 pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, the No. 1 left-handed prospect in all of baseball, to make his debut tonight. He has a 35.6 percent strikeout rate with a 16.3 percent walk rate and while his command was spotty early on, a month of rehab to reset turned the corner. Taijuan Walker has been a very pleasant surprise in the Phillies rotation as he has been a consistent starter with a 4.10 ERA over24 starts. He has slipped somewhat of late however as he has a 4.46 ERA over his last seven starts. 10* (901) San Francisco Giants |
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08-21-23 | Mariners v. White Sox +170 | Top | 14-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Mariners went into Houston and got the job done as they swept the Astros to make it six straight wins to move three games behind the Rangers in the American League West. This now presents a letdown spot heading to Chicago following the big divisional series. The White Sox are back home following a series closing win Sunday at Colorado which snapped a three-game skid. There is excellent value on Chicago tonight going against a very public play based on the Seattle winning streak and the supposed big starting pitching advantage but not necessarily the case. Luis Castillo has had a solid season with a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 25 starts but the wins have not been in bulk as the Mariners are 13-12 in those games including a 4-7 record on the road where his ERA climbs to 3.90. Over his last nine combined starts, he has a 4.02 ERA. Touki Toussaint has made eight starts since entering the rotation with mixed results. The home/road splits have been the difference as he has posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home compared to a 5.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road. 10* (960) Chicago White Sox |
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08-21-23 | Giants +149 v. Phillies | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Giants snapped a three-game skid with a 4-3 win over the Braves on Sunday and they need to turn things around, being stuck in a 3-9 run. San Francisco is still in the second Wild Card spot but there are five teams separated by 1.5 games vying for two spots. One of those teams are the Phillies which lost Sunday night to Washington and they have been in a mini slump as well, going 2-5 over their last seven games. They currently hold the top Wild Card two games over the Giants. Aaron Nola has not been the dominant pitcher we are used to seeing but after allowing five runs in two straight games, he allowed just one run over five innings to follow that up but it did not last. He gave up four runs over five innings against Toronto last time out to move his ERA to 4.58 and is still being premium priced. It will be a bullpen game for the Giants which is another reason for the big price with Scott alexander getting the start. This will be his seventh opener and will go no more than two innings and give way to Sean Manaea who has been solid with a 0.60 ERA over his last 15 innings. 10* (951) San Francisco Giants |
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08-20-23 | Orioles v. A's +173 | Top | 12-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Baltimore needed extra innings to take the second game of this series last night and has now won four of its last six games after opening with a loss to open this roadtrip. The Orioles remain 2.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the American League East. The Athletics have dropped the first two games of this series but Oakland has been playing better at home with a 6-6 record over its last 12 games but that has yielded a huge profit and those recent wins consist of one third of its win total at home for the whole season. Kyle Bradish goes for Baltimore and he has had a sneaky good season with a 3.18 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 22 starts. He has been more dominant at home where he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with his road ERA being close to two runs more and is at 4.43 over his last three road starts. JP Sears is coming off another decent start against St. Louis as he allowed three runs over five innings and he has allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 24 starts and has posted a decent 4.20 ERA overall but has a 1.14 WHIP to back that up. He has allowed just two home runs in his last four outings. 10* (918) Oakland Athletics |
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08-20-23 | Brewers +186 v. Rangers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 186 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this series which came after getting swept at the Dodgers. The Brewers have maintained their lead of three games over the Cubs and Reds in the National League Central as they have gotten back to 10 games over .500 overall. Texas is going to be a big public play today based trying to avoid the sweep and who is on the mound. The Rangers still have a 2.5-game lead over Houston in the American League West with the Astros stumbling this weekend as well. Adrian Houser did not get into the rotation until May and he has been pretty consistent as he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts. He had two bad outings at Toronto and at Atlanta and this will not be easy but keeping the ball inside the yard has been his strength. Max Scherzer has made three starts since coming to Texas and each one has gotten better. Last time out, he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and stroking out a season-high 11. His ERA is 1.80 over the three outings but this run is not sustainable and he take advantage of the big price. 10* (927) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-19-23 | Mariners +134 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 134 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Seattle won the series opener last night to make it four straight wins which has come after a three-game slide and the Mariners have now taken over the final Wild Card spot in the American League, a half-game over Toronto. They are six games over .500 on the road with the offense leading the way. Houston has been stuck in neutral with a 4-4 record over its last eight games and after nearly catching Texas in the American League West, it remains 2.5 games back with the Rangers unable to make more room. The Astros have the same home record as the Seattle road record. Framber Valdez tossed a no hitter three starts back but followed that up with a dud against the Orioles and did rebound with a decent game against Miami but nothing great. Over his last eight starts, he has a 5.33 ERA and while being more dominant at home, the Astros are just 7-6 in 13 starts. Logan Gilbert has been in the shadows this season behind Luis Castillo and George Kirby but he has been nearly as good. He has a 3.80 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 24 starts and while coming off a poor outing against Kansas City, he has a 1.87 ERA over his last five starts after a game where he allowed four or more runs. 10* (965) Seattle Mariners |
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08-19-23 | Pirates +153 v. Twins | Top | 7-4 | Win | 153 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Minnesota won the series opener last night 5-1 to make it four wins over its last five games following a four-game slide and the Twins are back to four games over .500. Luckily for the Twins, the Guardians are reeling with a 7-13 run and the Minnesota lead is now five games in the American League Central. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games and four of its last five and despite being well under .500 on the road, the Pirates remain in the positive because of numbers like this. Pitching has been the detriment but their top option goes tonight. Sonny Gray has had a terrific season with the Twins with a 2.97 ERA in 26 starts and he has tossed five straight quality outings. The last four have been on the road and after posting a 0.72 ERA in his first four home starts, he has a 4.50 ERA over his last seven home outings. Mitch Keller has been the pitcher that has looked dominant in most cases with the exception of just a few outings. In 25 starts, only five have been bad where he has allowed five runs or more and take those away and his ERA in his other 20 starts is 2.80 covering 22.1 innings. 10* (977) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-18-23 | Diamondbacks +155 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The San Diego mystique continues as it lost the series opener last night 3-1 to make it eight losses over its last 11 games to fall six games under .500 on the season and now down a National League worst 22.3 units. The Padres were a slight chalk last night and now are again massive favorites. Arizona suffered through a nine-game losing streak that knocked it completely out of the Wild Card but it is making up ground again with wins in five of its last six games. The Diamondbacks are in sixth place in the standings but are just one game out with 2.5 games separating five teams for the final two spots. Brandon Pfaadt has some overall gaudy number this season but that was due to early struggles and over his last five starts, he has a 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP covering 29 innings. The latter shows how good he has been and in those five starts, he was one-third inning away in two of those to make it quality outings in four out of five. Seth Lugo is an average starting pitcher that continues to be priced as an elite one and the results show that. He has a 4.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP which are certainly good numbers but the Padres have gone 6-12 in his 18 starts and have dropped 11.6 units in those games which is an absurd negative return. 10* (907) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-18-23 | Giants +205 v. Braves | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Braves are coming off a sweep of the Yankees as they limited New York to just three runs total over the three-game set. The pitching has been unreal going back further as over their last seven games, they have allowed a total of 13 runs which includes four shutouts. The Giants have not been tearing the cover off the ball but this price is huge for a team currently sitting in the No. 2 Wild Card spot. The Dodgers are running away with the National League West but the Giants have not helped their own cause with a 2-6 record over their last eight games. Spencer Strider had one of his worst starts of the season two games back and followed it up with one of his best which is a good sign long term but the struggles are real. Even counting those recent seven shutout innings, he has a 4.52 ERA over his last 12 starts and he is back home where his ERA is a pedestrian 4.16. Alex Cobb is a quality pitcher getting a number reserved for a lower end starter and he will be a big part of the playoff push. He is coming off poor back-to-back outings which sets up for a nice bounce back spot as he came into those games with a 3.05 ERA. He is just 6-4 and needs the bullpen to finish as the Giants are 0-11 in his no decisions. 10* (903) San Francisco Giants |
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08-17-23 | Brewers +135 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our N.L. Game of the Month. The Dodgers won the second game of this series 7-1 to make it 10 straight wins as they continue to dominate as the playoffs loom, going 14-1 over their last 15 games. Their division lead is now double digits over the Giants so it continues to be on cruise control. Milwaukee had a four-game winning streak coming into this series and overall has been solid the last two months with a 32-22 record its last 54 games to take over first place in the National League Central. The Brewers are 2.5 games ahead of both the Cubs and Reds with all remaining games being huge at this point. Corbin Burnes takes the hill for the Brewers and if you want a pitcher on your side to break a streak, he is up there especially coming off a poor game. He allowed five runs against the White Sox, the fourth time he has allowed five runs or more and he has posted a 2.17 ERA in the three previous follow up starts. His 1.08 WHIP is tied for No. 11 in baseball. Lance Lynn was the big acquisition for the Dodgers at the deadline and he has made three solid starts but one of those was against the underachieving Padres and the other two were at home against Colorado and Oakland, the overall record of the three teams being 138-225. He has allowed four runs or more in 13 of 24 starts including five runs or more eight times. 10* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-16-23 | Orioles +146 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. After winning the series opener, Baltimore lost last night 10-3 to snap its three-game winning streak but the Orioles remain three games ahead of Tampa Bay in the American League East with the Rays losing last night as well. Baltimore is 38-23 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball behind Atlanta by just a half-game. The Padres snapped a three-game skid and a 1-7 run as their dysfunctional season winds down. They are six games under .500 and with high expectations comes high prices even though they never got it going and the Padres are a second worse -21.8 units in baseball profits. Blake Snell has put himself into the Cy Young conversation as he is now the third favorite at +320 as he has pitched his way up with a 2.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 24 starts but the Padres are just 11-13. He has gone 15 straight starts allowing three runs or less but has not gone past six innings in 14 of those. Deam Kremer counters for Baltimore and after a rough start to the season where he had a 6.67 ERA through six starts, he has posted a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts since then, allowing more than three runs only three times including just one time on the road. 10* (929) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-16-23 | Red Sox v. Nationals +154 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 154 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We lost a tough one with Washington last night as it surrendered its 4-3 lead in the fourth inning and was unable to score again in the 5-4 loss. The Nationals are still 19-13 their last 32 games and the return has been even better considering they were underdogs in all but six of those games. Boston has won six of its last eight games but has had a tough time making up ground in the American League Wild Card as it remains three games back. The Red Sox got to .500 on the road for the season with the victory but the offense has struggled with 2.9 rpg in its last nine road games. Mackenzie Gore has put together a fine season with very few blowups along the way. One of those was his last outing where he allowed six runs, only the fifth time this season he has allowed five runs or more and four of those came on the road with the only occurrence at home coming against the Cardinals back in June. James Paxton has put together a similar type of season as his numbers are better in fewer starts but not by a ton and not enough to warrant a price this big. He shutout Kansas City in his last start but that lasted only 5.1 innings and over his last seven road starts, he has a 4.50 ERA. 10* (922) Washington Nationals |
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08-15-23 | Brewers +186 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Dodgers are on a roll as they have won eight straight games and 12 of their last 13 but all against some weak competition. Los Angeles has extended its lead to nine games in the National League West so that is all but over and now it is time just to get playoff ready. Milwaukee comes in on a four-game winning streak and overall has been solid the last two months with a 32-20 record its last 52 games to take over first place in the National League Central. The Brewers are 3.5 games ahead of both the Cubs and Reds making this end of the roadtrip with the Rangers to follow a big one. Adrian Houser has missed time on a couple occasions this season and while it has been up and down since his most recent reinsertion, it has been mostly the former. He has allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts after three weeks away and Milwaukee is 5-2 in those games. Bobby Miller had a rough stretch a few weeks ago but has gotten back on track with five straight solid starts but only two resulted in quality outings. He is coming off his best start since June as he allowed no runs in six innings against Arizona but has no business laying this number against a quality opponent. 10* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |