This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This is a matchup of strength against strength when it comes to the Bills having the ball. They are No. 3 in Offensive EPA, trailing only Washington and Baltimore heading into Week Six but they have struggled the last two weeks and now have their biggest test. The Ravens came into the week ranked No. 22 in Defensive Efficiency while the Texans came in No. 16 and now Buffalo faces a Jets defense ranked No. 4. New York allowed 23 points but one of the touchdowns was from the defense while the 253 yards allowed to Minnesota was easily a season low for the Vikings. Bills quarterback is listed on the injury report but with a left hand and ankle injury and not for the concussion that he likely received last week but not reported so we will see how that pans out. Additionally, running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir are both limited as questionable being limited in practice. The Jets struggled on offense in London but they played against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA and they now face a Buffalo defense ranked No. 15 in EPA and continue to be banged up with injuries. With a new play caller, we should see quarterback Aaron Rodgers have the offense opened up more. Also, Buffalo is second to last against the run. It is no coincidence that the last two Buffalo losses have come against the two best teams they have faced and both were on the road. This marks their third straight road game which could be an edge in the fact they have lost the last two which puts them in a desperate position but it is New York with the bigger intangible after head coach Robert Saleh was fired which puts the players in a good position to prove some things. 10* (288) New York Jets

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Dallas is coming off a fortunate win over Pittsburgh as it had to rally twice in the fourth quarter, culminating with a winning touchdown with just 20 seconds remaining. To their credit, the Cowboys outgained the Steelers 445-226 but the offense sputtered in the redzone and they committed three turnovers. They improved to 3-0 on the road but remain winless at home at 0-2 with losses coming against the Saints and Ravens. They have a much more difficult matchup this week as their defense will not be facing inept rushing and passing offenses. Dallas will again be without linebacker Micah Parsons and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence which is not ideal going up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The secondary is also banged up but cornerback Daron Bland is set to return. Detroit is coming off its bye week following a win over Seattle where it improved to 3-1 on the season. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball as Detroit is No. 12 in Defensive EPA which is certainly far from horrible and they are equally good against the run and pass so it is not a concern for us. The Lions will bring pressure against a bad offensive line and while Dak Prescott has the ability to put up big numbers like he did last week, his lack of execution is the downfall. Dallas will have the emotional edge of being back home but they are at a disadvantage in all other aspects. 10* (283) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chargers opened the season 2-0 although those wins were against Las Vegas and Carolina and they then dropped their next two games at Pittsburgh and at home against Kansas City. The bye week came at the best time with a chance to work on the offense that has fallen to No. 24 in Offensive EPA and give quarterback Justin Herbert an extra week to rest his ankle. He has not looked good in the new Jim Harbaugh offense but some of the issues can be attributed to the offensive line that has been banged up. They were without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against the Chiefs but both practiced this week and should be able to return. The Chargers are tied with Minnesota at No. 1 in Defensive EPA and have an excellent matchup in this spot. Denver has surprisingly won three straight games after opening the season 0-2. The Broncos rolled over an unfocused Tampa Bay team and should have lost against the Jets which missed a game winning field goal late while taking out an injury plagued Raiders team last week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had his struggles and the Broncos come in tied for No. 27 in Offensive Passing EPA which puts him in another tough situation. Additionally, the Broncos will be without center Luke Wattenberg and tackle Alex Palczewski which is bad news against the Los Angeles defense. The Chargers defense was short-handed against Kansas City as well with safety Dewin James serving a one game suspension and linebacker Joey Bosa out with a hip injury but they will return this week. 10* (277) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville which snapped a two-game winning streak but did get the cover based on the closing line to make it three straight winners against the number. The challenge will be more difficult this week however. Indianapolis hopes to get quarterback Anthony Richardson back but we still do not know if he will go as he will be a gametime decision which means Joe Flacco could get his second straight start after having a monster game against the Jaguars. Now the Colts go from playing the No. 32 ranked team in Defensive EPA to the No. 6 ranked team in Defensive EPA and the Titans lead the league in total defense and passing defense. Indianapolis will be without running back Jonathan Taylor so a second straight week. Tennessee is coming off its bye week following its first win of the season at Miami 31-12. While the Titans are just 1-3, they have won the stats in three games, outgaining the Bears and the Jets in their first two games. This is mostly in part to its stout defense as the offense does remain a concern. There are injury issues at quarterback here as well with Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury which could force a Mason Rudolph start. Rudolph did not put up huge numbers against the Dolphins but he managed the game well and protected the football and whichever quarterback gets the nod, they will be facing a Colts defense that made Trevor Lawrence look like an All Pro and one that is ranked No. 28 in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is coming off a pair of home wins including a huge 23-20 victory last week against Buffalo as it kicked a 59-yard field goal as time expired. The Texans are now 4-1 on the season but they are one of the worst winning teams in the league as they come in Ranked No. 17 in Net EPA. The defense has been slightly better than the offense, No. 17 compared to No. 20 but clearly there is no dominant strength on either side. Both sides are dinged up with the offensive line likely to be down at least one starter and running back Joe Mixon is still hobbled with an ankle injury. The Texans are tied for No. 11 in Defensive Passing EPA but the bad news is that they will be without two starters in the secondary as safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter have been ruled out. The Patriots look to present a good matchup for Houston as their offense is tied for No. 27 in Offensive EPA and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out with a foot injury. What makes this the spot to play on New England as it is making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye making his first start. Houston will have had a tough time game planning for him with nothing to look at and while Maye will likely see a lot of pressure, he has the scrambling ability to counter that. We are getting the line movement we were looking for even though it has gone against us, coming down to 6.5 points in some places but this is with 84 percent of the money coming in on the Texans, giving us the RLM. 10* (270) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This could be considered a make or break game for both teams as Cleveland cannot afford to fall to 1-5 while the Eagles will fall under .500 with a loss. This being said, the Eagles have significant edges all over the place which is a reason this line steamed up early in the week. Philadelphia is coming off a loss at Tampa Bay in its last game but injuries played a big factor in that with receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith sidelined along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. All three will be back on the field following their bye week and this will be the first home game for Philadelphia in a month. The offense will have a chance to finally break out even though they are still tied for No. 9 in Offensive EPA despite the recent scoring struggles and injuries. While the Eagles are back home, the Browns are playing their third straight road game with the first two being disastrous against the Raiders and Commanders. Cleveland is now 1-4 with the lone win coming against Jacksonville that easily could have been a loss. The Browns relied on their top ranked defense last season but they are just No. 14 in Defensive EPA this year and it is clear that Myles Garrett is not right and this is a game where Jalen Hurts can thrive. The bigger issue for Cleveland is the offense, namely quarterback Deshawn Watson who looks lost. The Browns are ahead of only Tennessee and Carolina in Offensive Passing EPA and while the running game is better, it is not by much as they are No. 20 in Offensive Rushing EPA. This certainly is blowout potential. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This number opened at 3.5 and has not moved all week with the majority of the action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco is off to a 2-3 start following a loss against Arizona and it hits the road where it has dropped both games at Minnesota and Los Angeles with the two wins coming against the Jets, that just fired their coach, and the Patriots, arguably the worst team in the AFC. They have fallen to No. 8 in Net EPA and No. 9 in Total DVOA and injuries remain an issue as they hit the road following two straight home games and playing on a short week. Seattle has had a strange couple weeks as it dominated Detroit and lost and followed that up losing the time of possession against the Giants by nearly a full quarter as it ran the ball only 11 times. This is not the gameplan to have success with one of the top running backs in the league in Kenneth Walker after having only five carries last week and Seattle has now lost 10 of 16 games when he gets fewer than 10 carries while going 15-8 in 23 games when he carries the ball 10 or more times. Despite the two recent losses, Seattle is ranked ahead of the 49ers in Total DVOA as No. 8 with an offense that is ranked No. 6. While the defense is not at that same level, they have improved under new head coach Mike McDonald, as they are No. 13 in DVOA this season compared to No. 28 last year. The Seahawks are 25-14-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season. 10* (106) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Chiefs came away with another come-from-behind victory as they came back from a 10-0 deficit against the Chargers and scored 17 unanswered points for the 17-0 victory to move to 4-0. The only game they have not trailed in was the season opener against Baltimore and they have been behind in the second half in each of their last three games but found ways to remain undefeated. Kansas City suffered a huge loss with Rashee Rice injuring his knee and while the timetable for his absence is unknown, he will be missed here as the No. 1 target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The offense has regressed its point production in each of the last four games and the Chiefs come in ranked No. 10 in Offensive DVOA and No. 11 in Offensive EPA and square off against what has been an elite defense with the Saints coming in No. 2 in Defensive DVOA and No. 6 in Defensive EPA. The Saints are coming off a last second loss against Atlanta which was their second straight loss, coming by a combined four points, following a 2-0 start outscoring Carolina and Dallas 91-29. New Orleans could easily be 4-0 and that is reflected with their No. 1 overall EPA ranking. Despite two straight subpar efforts, the offense is No. 9 in DVOA and No. 4 in EPA and while the offensive line was depleted last week, they still registered 366 total yards against the Falcons which have a very comparable defense with that of Kansas City. Chris Jones is the best defensive lineman in the game and can create havoc but New Orleans has been solid against pressure despite the injuries. The Chiefs are overvalued again as the metric numbers have this as a -3 spread yet the line has climbed to -5.5 after sitting at -4.5 Wednesday. 10* (475) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay got the good news last week as it welcomed quarterback Jordan Love back after missing two games but the bad news is that he was clearly rusty and the defense did him no favors as the Packers fell behind 28-0 in an eventual 31-29 loss to the Vikings. Love was able to spread the ball around and he threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions and that will get cleaned up this week. Green Bay faced a very good Vikings defense and were eventually able to find their way and despite Love out for two games, the Packers are No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and No. 10 in Offensive EPA. Now they face a Rams defense that is No. 31 in Defensive DVOA and No. 32 in Defensive EPA and they have struggled against both the pass and run so expect more balance from Green Bay after last week having to shift to a mostly passing attack. The Rams are fortunate not to be 0-4 as they were able to pick up a near miracle win against the 49ers where their win probability at one point late in the game was at five percent. 13 of their 27 points against the 49ers came in the fourth quarter and this has been the story all season as Los Angeles has scored a total of 40 points in the first three quarters while scoring 32 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have crushed the offense and while the wide receivers have been the story, the offensive line has been devasted as well with three starters on IR. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out and the offense has dipped to second half of the league in DVOA and EPA. While the Rams are No. 8 in Offensive rushing EPA, they face a Green Bay defense that is No. 4 in Defensive Rushing EPA. 10* (469) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season and it was not even close as the Bills were dominated from the start and that was a loss that can actually help going forward. This will be their second straight road game but have the ideal situation coming off an embarrassing stand alone game loss and now finally playing their first 1:00 game of the season. Buffalo is ranked in the top five in both Offensive DVOA and EPA and face a Texans defense that is ranked No. 17 in Defensive EPA so we ae expecting a big bounce back from the offense that scored only 10 points last week. The 12 first downs generated were the fewest for a Buffalo team in five years. Houston has not been impressive in its 3-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by while needing a late score last week to get past Jacksonville. Stroud did have a solid game but that was against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA and second to last in EPA. Despite the Bills injuries and suspensions, the Texans take a big step up. Buffalo was torched on defense against the Ravens but are still a respectable No. 10 in Defensive DVOA and in the only other two games they have faced a defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA, they managed 26 combined points. Early money has poured in on Buffalo yet the line has not moved and that is certainly telling. 10* (457) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville came through with the cover but failed to pick up the win as it could not hold the lead it got halfway through the third quarter, allowing a touchdown with 18 seconds left to remain the only winless team in the NFL. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, then they ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo before another game last week they could have won. The offense has gotten the blame but they are No. 21 in Offensive DVOA which is far from great but hardly horrible and they will be facing an average defense this week as the Colts are No. 17 in Defensive DVOA as their best two games were against the Packers without Jordan Love and still lost and against Bears rookie Caleb Williams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts and is 20-34 in his career and he is coming off a mistake free game with another great chance to break that streak. The Colts defeated the Steelers last week to make it two straight wins but they suffered two big blows. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game with a hip injury putting this game in question although there is optimism he will play. If not, it will be Joe Flacco and at this point, there is no difference in the betting market and who will lead this team. The bigger injury was the ankle sprain of Jonathan Taylor who has not practiced. He is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 349 yards and they will not bring him back early after suffering the same injury last season and came back too early as he reaggravated it. The Jaguars defense has been the real issue as they are No. 32 in Defensive DVOA but that is due to the last two games as they played solid the first two against a comparable offense. 10* (460) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. While Minnesota has been the big surprise in the league, Washington is right up there as it has been the talk the last two weeks and their offensive output. Those games against Arizona and Cincinnati were against defenses ranked No. 28 and No. 26 in Defensive EPA respectively so the Commanders were far from challenged. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding as he has completed 82.1 percent of his passes and has posted a 107.4 passer rating but this will be his first test against a strong defense. The Browns were one of the best in the NFL last season in EPA and DVOA and while they have slipped some this season, the opener against Dallas has a lot to do with that and they have been much better the last three weeks, albeit against some pedestrian offenses. Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a great job of game planning and the key here is to clean up the missed tackles. The Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL as they have yet to score 20 points in four games and they have not exactly faced a potent defense. That does not change here as they now get to go against the worst defense they have encountered with Washington ranked No. 30 in both Defensive DVOA and EPA and this is the breakout game they need if they want to salvage this season. The offensive line has been a big problem but they are starting to get healthy again. This is also a play on the spread which absolutely looks like a trap line. Washington has looked like one of the best teams over the last two weeks yet are favored by just a field goal as of Wednesday, just a half-point more that what Las Vegas was favored by over Cleveland last week. 10* (463) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Early Dominator. Minnesota is the surprise of the NFL as it is off to a 4-0 start and has been the most dominating team not only because of the perfect straight up record but the Vikings are off to a 4-0 ATS start, covering by an average of 16.2 ppg. Now is the time to go against this streak as we have seen a line flip from +2.5 to -2.5 based on overall success and what was seem last week. Defeating the Giants in Week One was nothing special and the last three wins, they have had great situation, facing the 49ers in their first road game coming off a big home win over the Jets, facing an overvalued Houston team that was 2-0 and last week going up against Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love making his first start since opening week and very rusty early on. This will be the toughest matchup quarterback Sam Darnold has faced. The Jets are coming off a bad home loss against Denver as they missed a late field goal for the win but the conditions were horrible which hurt their offense more than it affected the Broncos offense. They managed only 248 total yards with quarterback Aaron Rodgers going just 24-42 where the rain made a difference in the accuracy. He faces a tough defense this week as the Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA but he is one of a very few quarterbacks than can work around this. The big edge for the Jets is the defense as they are No. 1 in Passing EPA Defense and they have allowed just 30 points in their last three games after giving up 32 in their season opener. Not only do we expect Rodgers to bounce back but we expect the Jets defense to continue to dominate. 10* (451) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta came away with a win on a last second field goal over New Orleans in Week Four despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Falcons recovered a punt for a touchdown and has an interception for another and we have yet to see this offense come alive and we could finally see that happen here. They have the benefit of playing on a short week in consecutive games while Tampa Bay has to travel and while it is not a far jaunt, the time takes away from preparation. Atlanta is just No. 20 in total offense with Kirk Cousins coming off another below average performance. Atlanta has gone down to the last seconds in each of its last three games, winning two of those and this is the situation where the Falcons can finally have that overall effort against a still banged up defense and what is considered an overvalued offense. Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia from the start as it jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the defense did its job the rest of the way. This game was a question of are the Buccaneers this good or are the Eagles in trouble and we are going with the latter as they have been out of sorts all season whether it be offense or defense. Baker Mayfield had a great game to help Tampa Bay improve to 3-1 on the season but it has been inconsistent as it is ranked No. 16 in total offense and No. 11 in total defense and that is where the Luck Ratings come into play. Despite the domination of Philadelphia, this is where recency bias comes into play because that is what most will remember and what the line is being based on, not the Buccaneers last road game at Detroit where they were outgained by 296 yards despite winning which is also being in that Luck Rating effect. 10* (302) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start, led by a defense that is allowing 3.9 yppl which is lowest in the NFL and it is No. 3 in Defensive EPA. The Seahawks have benefited from playing a schedule that is ranked No. 31 which has played a big part of that defensive success as is the fact they have faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Those three quarterbacks have led offenses ranked No. 26, No. 24 and No. 29 in Offensive EPA respectively so they have not been tested which changes this week. The Seattle offense is averaging 24.3 ppg which is tied for No. 8 but like the other side, they have not faced a good defense as the three opponents are ranked No. 19 or worse in EPA and they will be facing their toughest defense thus far. Detroit is coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Tampa Bay two weeks ago despite outgaining the Buccaneers by 246 total yards. The Lions managed only 16 points but put up 463 yards of offense so the production was there, just not the scoring which has been an issue. The Lions have been a disappointment of offense this season as they are averaging 20.7 ppg overall and 18.6 ppg in regulation and they are ranked No. 13 in Offensive EPA. The difference between Detroit and the three teams the Seahawks have played is that the Lions have the potential, they just have not gotten it together quite yet. They averaged 28.7 ppg last season so they will be just fine. On the other side, the Lions are ranked No. 10 in Defensive EPA while allowing 17.7 ppg which is No. 9. This is a historically bad spot for the Seahawks as we play against teams that are 3-0 and playing as road underdogs as these teams are just 3-13 ATS over the last 15 years. This includes a 28-point loss by Miami against Buffalo last season and Minnesota and Buffalo pending this Sunday. 10* (292) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start and are looking dominant in doing so but they have faced a schedule ranked No. 23 and the spots in the schedule have also been in their favor. They opened at home against the Cardinals and needed a big second half and a late stop to win, they were outgained by Miami 351-247 and got a nice break going from a Thursday night to a Monday night against Jacksonville. Taking nothing away from Buffalo, this is a very strong team that is currently behind Kansas City in Super Bowl odds at +750 after opening +1,500 but now comes a test. Baltimore opened the season with a loss in Kansas city that was a toe away from overtime and then the Ravens allowed the Raiders, the same Raiders that were blown out by Carolina last week, to stage a late comeback and then nearly let the Cowboys do the same last week. They ran all over Dallas and are tied for No. 1 in Rushing EPA as they finally utilized Derrick Henry to his ability and paired with Lamar Jackson, this is a tough offense to stop. Buffalo is ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Rushing EPA. Admittedly, the Ravens defense has slipped looking at their metrics but their first half and second half defenses are polar opposites and those prevent styles the last two games with having big leads has to stop and it almost results in a second straight implosion. One of the most widely known recent situations is Lamar Jackson is now 23-7 ATS then not favored by three or more points as an underdog following another cover last week. 10* (288) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Saints suffered their first loss of the season as they fell to Philadelphia 15-12 as they allowed two Saquon Barkley touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the second with 1:01 remaining to seal the win for the Eagles. While it was only a three-point loss, the Saints were outgained 460-219 by the Eagles so we have a skewed final score that should have been a lot worse but it was Philadelphia that kept kicking itself in the foot. New Orleans is turning into a public team as the early money is on New Orleans again but the first two victories are not worth much as Carolina was a disaster through two weeks and we saw Dallas get gashed again last week. Injuries along the offensive line will be a factor this week. The Falcons have injuries along the offensive line as well which hurt them last week they were in position to defeat the Chiefs and at least be given an opportunity late but a missed pass interference call benefitted Kansas City once again. Atlanta is now 1-2 with the lone win coming against the Eagles on a last minute drive so the last two games have come down to the wire. After a rough first game for Kirk Cousins, partly coming back from injury and also a vanilla game plan, he has looked a lot more comfortable the last two games. The Falcons are favored again for the first time since the opener with a reverse line move as the number has gone up from -1 since the opener but is still under the key number of three as of Thursday. 10* (264) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Scoring is down in the NFL this season and through three weeks, there are nine teams averaging 17 ppg or fewer and taking out the Steelers, the other eight teams are a combined 6-18, none of which have a winning record so the 3-0 Steelers are an outlier. Pittsburgh is undefeated because of its defense as it is allowing a league low 8.7 ppg, giving up no more than 10 points in any game. While impressive, the opposition has played a role as the Steelers caught Kirk Cousins in his first game back from an Achilles injury, rookie Bo Nix in his second NFL game and Justin Herbert having to leave because of an ankle injury. The Steelers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games when favored on the road against teams with a losing record. The Colts picked up their first win of the season as they defeated the Bears 21-16 despite getting outgained 395-306 as they took advantage of three Chicago turnovers. Typically, we stay away from winning teams that were outgained but the fade from the other side is too strong and the fact Indianapolis remains home making this is a good opportunity for an offense to finally get to the Steelers defense. Anthony Richardson has been far from clean as his last two games have seen passer ratings of 41.8 and 39.0 but there have been flashes and we are starting to see the old version of Jonathan Taylor emerge. The defense has looked good enough to contain Justin Fields, who has been efficient but has yet to have to make plays when needed in clutch time. 10* (266) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville is coming off an absolutely awful performance at Buffalo on Monday night to fall to 0-3 and will likely be one of the least publicly bet teams in Week Four. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost eight straight starts and is 20-33 in his career with an 84.5 passer rating. And we are on him to bounce back. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, they just ran into a buzzsaw last week and teams that lost by 35 or more points as underdogs of four or more points are 50-19-2 ATS. Houston has not been impressive in its 2-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by. Many are expecting a bounce back from Houston and the linemakers are predicting the market and have moved with it with what is now an absurd number. This is an interesting line move as it opened at 4.5, which is the same amount the Jaguars were getting in Buffalo and now it has risen to 6.5. So the move is saying the Texans are the same team as the Bills at this point in the season? Absolutely not. Also the move is based on the horrible Jacksonville performance at Buffalo but there is no reaction to the horrible Houston performance in Minnesota so the guess is we can only call it a half overreaction. 10* (267) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Chicago was anointed NFC North Champions by many before the season started and it is fortunate to be 1-2 as it opened the season with a win over Tennessee, a bottom five teams in the league, needing to overcome a 17-0 deficit to win 24-7 with two of the Bears touchdowns via punt return and interception return. We are not counting them out however as they showed life last week by outgaining the Colts 395-306 but were hurt by three turnovers including a pair of bad passes from Caleb Williams. Despite the two interceptions, he posted his highest passer rating and while it was not spectacular, it showed improvement as he threw for 363 yards and tossed his first two touchdowns. There is still more room for improvement and heading back home against the second worst defense in EPA can do that. The Rams are coming off an improbable win last week over the 49ers, coming back from three separate double-digit deficits. It was the first win for Los Angeles as it bounced back from a throttling in Arizona which came after an overtime loss against the Lions, a game obviously that could have gone either way. That was when the Rams were healthy however as they are riddled with injuries with the two top receivers still out as well as two offensive guards. Kyren Williams carried the Rams with the last three touchdowns but he rushed for just 3.7 ypg so whoever says he went off, he did not unless referring to fantasy. The defense again lets them down. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. As dysfunctional as Dallas has looked the last two weeks, this is a spot it thrives in and will bounce back after a pair of ugly home losses. The Cowboys were destroyed by New Orleans two weeks ago and were behind 28-6 in the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore before trying to make a miracle comeback all after opening the season with a win of what we know now is a bad Cleveland team. This fits what Dallas did last season as well, roll over the bad teams and lose to the good teams. The Cowboys did lose to Arizona early in the season but in their other eight games against non-playoff teams, they won all of those by an average of 27 ppg. This is the perfect opponent to get right, at least for now. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season as they overcame a 7-0 deficit in the first 11 seconds to defeat the Browns 21-15. They opened the season with losses against Minnesota and Washington with the former not looking as bad now and to their credit, there has been progress. However, they have not faced a decent quarterback the last two games and while Dak Prescott does not have a ton around him this year, he will be able to take apart a poor Giants secondary. He has thrived in these spots as well, going 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) as a divisional favorite. The defense has fallen to No. 27 in EPA but will be able to pressure Daniel Jones through a bad offensive line. The Cowboys make it 14 wins in the last 15 meetings. 10* (101) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Like a number of teams this week, the Bengals are in desperation mode to avoid a 0-3 start which makes it nearly impossible to make the postseason. Of the 168 teams that started 0-3 between 1990-2023, only four have managed to get into the postseason and Cincinnati has been here before being one of the slowest starting teams in recent years. Including this season, the Bengals are 1-11 over the last six years in their first two games, the only win coming in 2021 against Minnesota. They have won their last three Game Three games and they are in a good spot playing on Monday night as 0-2 teams playing at home on Monday night cover at a 71 percent clip. Washington picked up its first win of the season under quarterback Jaylen Daniels with a 21-18 win over the Giants, needing a field goal as time expired for the victory. That was the story the whole game however as the Commanders had to settle for seven field goals as they finished 0-6 from the redzone and that is not ideal here against a solid redzone defense as the Bengals have held their first two opponents 2-6 inside the redzone. This game has blowout written all over it and that will be the popular public play. We saw some early line movement as this number went to 8-8.5 on Monday but came back to 7.5 on Tuesday and has remained steady despite over 80 percent of the money being on Cincinnati. The Bengals will likely get a lot of public money on Monday so it is wise to get the 7-7.5 now. 10* (480) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta was a big disappointment in Week One against Pittsburgh, namely the offense that managed only 10 points, and last week against Philadelphia, the offense had just 15 points going into the final minute so that is a concern but this is the spot for it to come around. However, what did change was play calling as Kirk Cousins looked a lot more comfortable and the Falcons actually finished with the No. 5 Success Rate last week of all teams. One reason to like the Falcons offense in this spot as they go up against a Kansas City defense that is ranked No. 30 in Defensive rushing EPA and their secondary is not what it used to be as well. The Chiefs have escaped twice and this is not going to keep happening. They are coming off two emotional wins over AFC rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati and now have to travel for the first time in what is going to be a crazy environment. Patrick Mahomes struggled last week with an 80.6 passer rating and on the season, he has three touchdowns and three interceptions. Not exactly Mahomes-like. While the Atlanta defense has been a liability for a few years, what has been good this season has been that defense even though the metrics do not show it in EPA or DVOA. They do enough again to pull the upset as underdogs. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. Detroit is one of a few teams that are looking to bounce back from losses despite being the better team. The Lions outgained Tampa Bay by 246 yards but they were surprisingly horrible in the rezone and quarterback Jared Goff had a bad game. He has been one of the best bounce back quarterbacks in recent games as he rarely puts up consecutive poor passer ratings. This is one of the rare non-dome games for the Lions and they are known for not performing as well on grass but we are not buying that in this spot, especially at this number that has come down below a key number as people are buying into the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a blowout win over the Rams but it was facing a team ravaged with injuries already this early into the season. The Cardinals opened with a loss in Buffalo but it was close through as they actually blew a significant lead and had their chances late to pull it out even though they averaged only 4.8 yppl. That close loss to the Bills is also playing into the line and the line move as they are 2-0 against the number. Kyler Murray looked great last week but will be facing a much better defense as they will not be putting up 489 yards again this week. This is a good buy low spot based on the early overreactions which we get every season. 10* (469) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. Two desperate teams square off here with the Ravens being in the more desperate spot. They are 0-2 despite having chances to win both games late yet they have not covered which puts them in that rare situation where they have the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL and have outgained both opponents and by an average of 111 ypg. These are the spots quarterback Lamar Jackson thrives in as he has dominated the NFC and is a crazy 15-2-1 ATS when he is not favored by more than a field goal. He faces a Dallas defense that was gashed for 432 yards last week and while he will have a great day, getting Derrick Henry more involved will be a benefit as well. The Cowboys have had one of the top rosters over the last few seasons but that is clearly not the case this season. They do have stars on both sides of the ball but it thins out considerably and we can lump Dak Prescott into that as well as he has produced passer ratings of 85.3 and 78.3 this season and will be facing a Baltimore defense that is No. 22 is Defensive EPA so they will be out to get right and will be playing with extreme intensity in this high profile spot but more do to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Dallas has no running game, averaging just 3.7 ypc while the offense as a whole has put up only three touchdowns through its first two games. 10* (471) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Bryce Young experiment is over in Carolina and because of that, we will be riding the Panthers as they now have a competent quarterback under center. We excused Young for his performance Week One but he was nearly as bad last week and head coach Dave Canales saw enough with a chance to possibly still save the season. Andy Daulton is not going to put a lot of scares in opposing defenses but he has been more than capable in the last two seasons in New Orleans and here where he has thrown for 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The team as a whole is going to step up because it was doubtful anyone believed in Young and a chance to improve gives them more motivation. The Raiders are coming off the big upset win over Baltimore to improve to 1-1 and are now in Las Vegas for their home opener but how serious can they take this team coming in. Las Vegas was outgained in both games including getting outyarded by 123 yards last week. We are not comparing Baltimore and Carolina we are seeing a 15-point swing and covering a big number is something the Raiders co with their offense. Gardner Minshew has looked good with close to identical games of 95.1 and 94.7 ratings but the Raiders are ranked No. 29 in Offensive EPA and backing a team that low is bad news. 10* (465) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Tampa Bay was outgained by 246 yards last week and was still able to beat Detroit to move to 2-0. The Lions kicked themselves in the foot numerous times in coming off a rare loss when you outgained your opponent by nearly 250 yards. The Buccaneers dominated their first game at home against Washington with a rookie quarterback and now catch another rookie quarterback at home but they are getting too much credit here as they are favored by 2.5 points more against Bo Nix and they were against Jaylen Daniels. They were near the top of the Luck Rankings last season and seem to be heading that way again but their luck will eventually run out. Nix has no doubt struggled but Denver has been competitive in both games, losing the two by one possession each. He did look better last week despite a pair of interceptions and ended up with 246 yards against a very good defense. He will now be facing a defense that is already banged up so he will catch a break here. Speaking of Luck Rankings, Denver is the unluckiest team to start the season, albeit a short sample size. As of Saturday, the majority of the money is on the Buccaneers yet the line has actually come down in some places and always love being on the side of a reverse line move when the public is all over the side. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Jets picked up their first win of the season with a front door cover late in the fourth quarter and are now back in New York for their home opener. This will be the first true home game for Aaron Rodgers after leaving the opener last season on the first series and there are the doubters after a couple not so great productive games. The Jets defense was to blame in the opener as they could not stop the 49ers which forced a game of catch up that they could not match up with. There will not be that issue tonight as they will be facing a similar offense as last week when the Titans were able to gain just 300 total yards with the help of more poor decision making from Will Levis. Jacoby Brissett is a step above but moving on the road after a home opener loss to this environment will be a test. The Patriots have owned this series with a 15-1 advantage over the last 16 meetings but that makes do difference with the rosters being completely different. The Patriots defense is the focal point. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati in the opener but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Last week, Seattle could get nothing going on the ground but Geno Smith had a huge game through the air as he passed for 327 yards on a 75 percent completion clip and this is where the Jets offense can bust out especially with the ability of Breece Hall in both the passing and running game. The lookahead line was 7 and came down most places Sunday night and has settled in at 6-6.5 and it is at a number that is completely skewed from the numbers of both of the games from last week. 10* (302) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Star Attraction. One of the big public sleepers could fall to 0-2 despite not allowing a touchdown in Week One as the Falcons and new quarterback Kirk Cousins failed to get it done against the Steelers. The same Steelers team that is 2-0 having score just one touchdown. Atlanta is in a spot that has historically been great as it comes into Week Two coming off an outright loss as a favorite and now being an underdog. Covers by Cleveland and Cincinnati moved these teams to 67-44-4 ATS since 1980 and this includes a 34-16-4 ATS run when playing against a non-division team. We are now seeing a nine-point swing and this against a team coming off a horrible travel spot. The Philadelphia defense allowed 414 total yards (251 passing yards and 163 rushing yards) in the season opener and it is a defense that went into last season on paper was one of the best and is not. The Eagles finished No. 30 in Defensive EPA, No. 26 passing and No. 28 rushing, and this is a great time for Atlanta to face them coming off that game. The addition of Saquon Barkley makes this offense legit at both levels but A.J. Brown is out tonight and that is a big loss to take away some of the balance of that offense. 10* (291) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. If it was possible for a 2-15 team to look worse than that in the first game the following season, Carolina may have accomplished it. The Panthers had nothing going on offense while the defense could not stop a pretty average offense and they are currently the fourth least bet team behind Las Vegas, New Orleans and Chicago. Head coach Dave Canales called himself out after the loss and we can expect a different team in their home opener. Looking back at least season, the Panthers have scored 10 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games but this spot could not be better. The Chargers won an ugly game against the Raiders that was a skewed final with a questionable fourth down call in the fourth quarter from Las Vegas that swayed the game. We refer to ugly as Los Angeles had more rushing attempts than passing attempts and this is likely going to be the script this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The early lookahead line in the summer was 3 and then opened at most other books last Sunday at 5.5 or 6, went up from there and has now gone back down to 5 despite the handle. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 or more points and are underdogs of four points or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5 percent). 10* (266) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. If there is one player on a roster to move a line, it is the quarterback but often time the numbers are moved too much which is the case here. Green Bay opened as the favorite before the game last Friday and as soon as Jordan Love went down at the end of the game, this one came off the board and when put back up, the line flipped and we are now seeing a 6-7 point swing in some spots which is too much for this quarterback. There has been talk about Love not being completely ruled out for this week as he is officially listed as questionable but we are not banking on him playing. The Packers lost a tough one in Brazil against the Eagles and are a non-public home underdog this week with over 70 percent of the money on the other side. Indianapolis came through for us last week against Houston with the backdoor cover despite getting outgained by over 100 yards. The Colts ran only 41 plays with quarterback Anthony Richardson accounting for 25 of those and running back Jonathan Taylor running for the other 16 so the all or nothing offense was on full display. Defensively, the Colts were not good as they allowed 213 yards rushing which fits into the gameplan of Green Bay to utilize Josh Jacobs and not have to rely on Malik Willis. He has had a full week of practice and this group is going to rally around him in what is already a big game for Green Bay to avoid the 0-2 start. 10* (272) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We saw this number open at 6-6.5 and it has remained steady throughout the week despite early money on the Cowboys. Dallas came away with the road win in Cleveland despite only 265 yards of offense and that is what will be keeping the majority off of them when the public money comes in despite being a typical public bet team. The Cowboys did it with their defense as they limited the Browns to 230 yards of offense and there is very little difference between the offenses of Cleveland and New Orleans despite what the Saints did last week. The 47 points scored were their most in a season opener in over 40 years but now they face a defense that finished No. 5 in DVOA last season and will be bringing pressure on quarterback Derek Carr all game. Cleveland was without both starting tackles last week which made a huge difference but the Saints entered the season with the lowest rated offensive line and could be without both of their starting tackles as well so there is no difference heading into this week. There certainly are questions with the Dallas offense but the Browns pass rush compared to the Saints is not comparable. Additionally, their secondary is banged up already and the home opener for newly inked CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott should put on a show coming off their playoff loss last season, snapping a 16-game home winning streak. 10* (268) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. New England is coming off the biggest upset of Week One as it went into Cincinnati and came away with a six-point win as a 7.5-point underdog which added to the Bengals notoriety of slow season starts. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Offensively, it was an expected poor showing as New England had just 290 yards of offense including 120 yards through the air and Seattle will see a similar situation as it did with Bo Nix who threw the ball 42 times and had just 138 yards passing. The Bengals receiving group was part of the problem as there was no chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase missing a lot of time and Andrei Iosivas being the No. 2. The situation for Seattle is different despite the average game from Geno Smith against the Broncos. Had New England come away with the win last week, this line would be well over 3 but it is hanging there despite Seattle being the early action side and the Patriots seeing over a 10-point line swing. This is not the Patriots spot as they are 1-12 against the number in their last 13 games getting four or fewer points. 10* (277) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Star Attraction. We are not sure what happened to the Jets defense last week but they were on the field way too much, 25 of the first 37 minutes, and that does not bode well for a team coming off a short week. That being said, playing against one of the best rosters in the NFL and now facing one of the worst gives them a huge edge. Tennessee possesses one of the best receiving groups in the league but it has a quarterback that cannot get them the ball as Will Levis continues to regress. Two of his first four starts were outstanding last season against Atlanta and Jacksonville but his highest passer rating since then has been 86.2 with his opener this season being 52.5. Aaron Rodgers was not horrible with his first full game with the Jets, he could not just get into a rhythm with the offense possessing the ball for just over 21 minutes. The Tennessee defense is a solid unit but the fact they allowed 24 unanswered points against a quarterback that failed to score an offensive touchdown is a huge concern. Tennessee blew a 17-0 lead last week against Chicago becoming the second team in the last 69 games (66-2-1 ATS) as an underdog of four or more points to lose after having a 17 or more point lead. This is a huge game for the Jets which have one of the worst early schedules playing their first two games on the road and then having to play Thursday in Week Three. 10* (279) New York Jets

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Miami needed two field goals in the last five minutes to beat Jacksonville and that was a big win heading into this game not just to possibly avoid falling two games back in the AFC East had they lost, but for confidence coming off an interesting pregame situation to say the least. Miami has the short rest advantage with no travel and we are not seeing this line do much which is fair with both teams coming off favorite wins last week. This could be the best spot to catch Buffalo at in a while with its defense coming into the season with some concerns and Miami now looking to improve upon its 20 and 14 point outputs in the two meetings last season. The Dolphins scored just 20 points last week against the Jaguars but did manage 400 yards of offense and based on the NFL yard per point average over the last five years, that normally equates to 27 points. The Dolphins have already ruled out Raheem Mostert while DeVon Achane is listed as a gametime decision and this could be a big issue but neither were involved much in the running game last week and Jeff Wilson is more than a capable backup. The Bills opened things up in the second half after falling behind 17-3 but the win was still in jeopardy but Arizona failed on a fourth-and-7 from the Buffalo 29-yard line with just 26 seconds left. As mentioned, the defense was a concern coming in and with the exception of Greg Rousseau, it was not a clean effort against a not so great offense. Buffalo will need a better effort here and could struggle on the back end with the Miami speed. On offense, quarterback Josh Allen completed 18 of his 23 passes for 232 yards and scored four total touchdowns, including two rushing touchdowns, on his way to a 75.1 PFF overall grade. Allen was willing to push the ball downfield, too, averaging 9.7 ypa but no clear No. 1 receiver emerged with Keon Coleman leading with five targets with seven others getting between two and three. This is not necessarily a bad thing spreading it around no go to guy causes Allen to try and do too much and it nearly cost him. His wrist injury is on the non-throwing hand but that can affect other areas of his game. Having lost four straight and nine of the last 10 in this series, the Dolphins break through Thursday. 10* (104) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. They are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. This is still one of the best rosters in the league but this is not a good spot in the opener against a legitimate team. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 5-19 ATS in the opening week the following season and while it has leveled out somewhat more recently (3-3 ATS L6), those three winners did not go against the best of competition, the last two opponents being the 2023 Patriots and 2019 Panthers which went a combined 9-24 those seasons and the 2018 Texans which were a respectable 10-6. Additionally, Monday night favorites have been bankroll burners, going 19-41-1 ATS since 1980 and this is all based on the public riding those sides with inflated numbers. Expectations are high for the Jets for a second straight season following last year when their season was basically over after four snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA and they averaged 10.4 ppg in their 10 losses. Rodgers is not the same quarterback he once was is our guess after not seeing him in a while but he will breathe life into the offense. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. Anything over a field goal is a bonus and it would not be surprising to see this number go up slightly with public money not hitting the 49ers yet. 10* (481) New York Jets

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The Commanders finished last in the NFC East as they went 3-14 overall including going a winless 0-6 in the division and while they are not coming into the season as a very hyped team, they figure to be improved. Quarterback Sam Howell started every game for Washington but he is gone after leading the NFL with 23 turnovers and the Commanders had the worst turnover margin in the league which puts them in a positive progression situation going into this season as that usually reverses out and we will take advantage of that in Game One because the lines are still focused mainly on last season. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. To help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Commanders fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (473) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Giants had an offseason that many felt was left to be desired as they did not do a ton of upgrading and will have to go on after losing running back Saquon Barkley but we love the early buy low spot with no one wanting a piece of New York. Besides us. This is the typical offseason overreaction which we love to go against, whether it be the good or bad hype, and it is the latter in this case with a lot of that directed toward quarterback Daniel Jones who is back after an injury filled 2023 season which included a torn ACL in Week Nine. He looked below average in the preseason but we cannot take too much out of that. The biggest problem on offense last season was not necessarily the loss of Jones but it was the offensive line as they allowed an NFL worst 85 sacks, 20 more than the next highest team. No worries about that in this matchup. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball and Jones should have time. The Vikings defense showed improvement going from second worst in total defense to No. 16 but Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone and they finished last season with only 43 sacks. Daboll has taken over the play calling after two years and we love that move. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins which is a huge loss and they will turn to Sam Darnold who does not instill much confidence. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off with Darnold and his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here with the exception of Justin Jefferson but he could struggle without Cousins. The Giants defense was not horrendous last season and the signing of Brian Burns was significant. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Giants fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (460) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. There is no hype in New Orleans despite coming off a winning season as it is in a rare situation of coming off a decent finish but odds have gone the other direction despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The Saints are in one of the weakest divisions in the league and it is wide open yet they have gone from +115 last season to +400 this season while their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less than 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Quarterback Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the worst coach in the division now faces off against who we think is the best coach in the division. Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. Head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and while he was not the issue, we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The Panthers upgraded their defense as well. The casual fan or bettor will look at those two wins from last season but Carolina has potential for a big turnaround. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Panthers fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Also, Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014. 10* (461) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Division Game of the Month. This is a spot where we are going against a team that comes into the season as arguably the biggest overhyped team with Super Bowl futures pouring in. There have been only eight teams in the NFL that were 150-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl and then go to 20-1 or less the following season and Houston is one of those heading into this season. Of the previous seven, five have finished with a losing record so we will be fading the Texans here as they are getting the love of their worst to first AFC South turnaround. The fact the Texans had 11 wins last season which was the same amount as their previous three seasons combined shows there should be negative regression and we have the ideal spot in playing against them as they enter the season as a division road favorite with the number continuing to climb. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year but eight of his 10 regular season wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs and while one of those was Indianapolis, the Colts are a different team than what they were in January. Houston also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA but there was a lot of turnover on this side. Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014 while divisional home underdogs are 25-13 ATS going back further. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Friday Star Attraction. The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and it is +1,600 heading into Week One. Last season, Philadelphia forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. There are three teams ahead of the pack on the hype train, the Texans, Falcons and Packers and these are the teams we will try to find early fade spots and this is one of those. The Packers opened 2-5 last season but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers and in this case, a little too much. They were +6,600 to win the Super Bowl coming into the season last year and now they are +2,000 while going from +2,800 to +900 to win the NFC and +350 to +210 to win the North. We are not sold. Going back to the playoffs last season, Green Bay was getting 7 at Dallas and 10.5 at San Francisco and now is getting only 3 on a neutral field against a Super Bowl contender. While the Packers are getting the hype, the Eagles are on the opposite end of that following their implosion last season and this is the buy low spot right here. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. Kansas City will be out for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl and it opens the season at home after losing in this spot to the Lions a year ago. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy although Brown will be out for this game. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league and has a great matchup here. Baltimore made it to the AFC Championship where it lost to the Chiefs and we certainly are not going to play the road revenge angle here on a team that has gone through a lot of turnover. The Ravens will be just fine going forward but the first few weeks could be an adjustment period which we need to keep an eye on. The Ravens do still have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine but early on, we are not so sure. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-4 although two of those losses have been in the last two seasons with the Rams and the Chiefs but this is still a great system play. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. Two things that are hard to go against are first, Patrick Mahomes and his experience and second, a very solid Kansas City defense. Mahomes is Mahomes, no need to delve into that. The Chiefs bottled up the Ravens offense and while Baltimore has a strong offense, the 49ers offense is on a different level and can strike from anywhere. The 49ers were No. 2 in overall DVOA and No. 1 in offensive DVOA during the regular season and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle lead arguably the best skill position group in the league and they are all healthy and while Brock Purdy has not been on this stage, he carried San Francisco last week and he possesses a confidence not seen from many young quarterbacks. He quietly led the NFL in EPA Per Play and will not be phased. While the Chiefs defense has carried the team, the 49ers defense was certainly so slouch as it finished No. 4 in defensive DVOA and faces a Kansas City offense that has been off all season long. The Chiefs benefitted from Buffalo and Baltimore mistakes in the last two games and they were shut out last week in the second half in Baltimore and they cannot get away with that here. Kansas City has the more experienced team in this situation playing in the Super Bowl now for the fourth time in five years and Mahomes as an underdog has been nearly unbeatable but the all around roster makes San Francisco the team to beat and the line is on our side and will likely remain under the key number of three. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Championship Winner. Detroit did not exactly dominate in its two playoff games but came away with wins thanks to clutch defense and playing turnover-free football. The Lions key here is to slow this game down as much as possible as they want to avoid a shootout and to do that will be establishing a running game which they can do against a 49ers weakness of late. They finished last week with a very strong 61 percent success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. That will set up the passing and while much has been said about quarterback Jared Goff being much worse when not playing indoors and while true, this is not a horrible matchup for him. He is going to face some heavy blitzing against a 49ers defense that has a great sack rate but when Goff faces a team with a sack rate of four percent or higher, he has gone 15-4 ATS in his career. The Lions defense has gotten a lot of heat as it is considered a big weakness but they come in as the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense against the run and they will gladly accept having Brock Purdy beat them. The big story here is the status of 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel who is listed at 50/50 which likely means he will be playing and we probably will not know a definite answer until right up to gameday and with this number, it is based on him playing so if ruled out, it will likely come back down under a touchdown. 72 percent of the money is on the Lions yet the line has moved the opposite direction and that is actually a good sign as public money has not really entered the picture yet. 10* (321) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Championship Winner. Baltimore has been one of the more dominating teams in recent memory when it comes to metrics and after toying with the Texans last week, the Ravens poured it on in the second half. They are peaking at the best time and most importantly in January, they are close to as healthy as they have been all season. Baltimore is 14-4 overall and it has not been a soft 14-4. The Ravens have gone 7-2 against playoff teams, not counting the Week 18 loss against the Steelers where they rested starters, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. At home, Baltimore had 10 games and all were against teams that finished above .500 and again, not counting that last Pittsburgh game, it went 7-2 with the two losses coming on last second field goals. The Ravens are ranked No. 1 in total DVOA including No. 1 in Defensive DVOA which puts the Chiefs in a bad matchup. Kansas City snuck out of Buffalo with a win thanks to a last second field goal and the Chiefs are now entering their sixth straight AFC Championship but arguably this is the weakest of the six teams. They outscored opponents by just over five ppg and did not face nearly the same gauntlet that Baltimore did. The Chiefs are 3-4 against playoff teams and played only nine games against teams with a winning record including just three on the road with the two wins coming at Jacksonville and Buffalo while losing to Green Bay. The lone hesitation here is going against Patrick Mahomes who is now 8-3 as an underdog but this is the first instance of a game against a team this stacked and in a situation like this. 10* (320) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Buffalo jumped on Pittsburgh early and coasted the rest of the way, playing a fairly conservative game in the win and cover. Buffalo struggled through the first half of the season and began 6-6 and many counted the Bills out at that point but they are peaking at the right time as they have won six straight games and finally get the Chiefs at home with the previous five meetings taking place in Kansas City even though Buffalo was able to win three of those. This is the best time to get Kansas City at home with this being the first true road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes after having his first 13 at home not counting the two Super Bowls and it is not an ideal time for this Chiefs offense that makes too many mistakes and has been the least efficient that we have seen in a while. The Bills defense suffered more injuries last week but they will get cornerback Rasul Douglas back who was held back last week even though he could have played. The Chiefs defense has carried this team all season as they are allowing 16.7 ppg but this is a Bills offense that will have answers and quarterback Josh Allen has thrived in these spots as he is 20-6-1 ATS in his career against teams that allowed fewer than 20 ppg. This line opened at 2.5 -115 and the juice has gone up slightly but the number has not hit 3 although that will likely happen once public money comes into play so best to get on it sooner rather than later. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 66-31 ATS (68 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (318) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit picked up a very emotional win last week over the Rams and while there is talk about the Lions coming in flat, this is not going to happen in a Divisional Playoff game. The Lions did enough on offense in the first half to sneak out the win against one of the best teams over the second half of the season and the Lions have a better matchup and remain at home where they are 7-2 with those two losses coming in games where they won the yardage battle in both but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in each game. The one concern is the Detroit defense that has regressed throughout the season and it has been lit up through the air over its last four games, allowing 323 or more yards in each one. However, that has not led to much scoring as the Lions have allowed an average of 21.8 ppg and this has been a significant improvement after giving up 26 or more points in their previous five games with an average of 29.8 ppg. Tampa Bay is ranked No. 20 in offensive DVOA and while it put up 32 points against the eagles last week, that defense did not show up and the Buccaneers put up 22 points in their previous two games against the Saints and Panthers. Tampa Bay played a soft schedule in the worst division in the league and it went 1-3 against the top ten in the NFL with the only win coming against Green Bay which was the only win on the road against a playoff team. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the classic rest vs. rust argument as San Francisco is coming off its first round bye while sitting starters in its season finale against the Rams. The 49ers should be just fine as most important, they are as healthy as they have been all season and time off for an offense that is No. 1 in net DVOA and a defense that is No. 4 in net DVOA is not going to be affected. San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in seven of the eight major statistical categories with the only exception being passing yards allowed and that was minimal. While this is a big number, the last 10 San Francisco wins have come by at least 12 points. Green Bay came through for us last week in Dallas as it jumped ahead big early in the game and never looked back in the wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys. The Packers are playing their best football of the season but had a great matchup last week which is not the case this week. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to bring it as he is coming off another efficient performance with a 157.2 passer rating but faces a better equipped defense this week. The Packers have averaged 28 ppg over their last nine games so they come in confident and with momentum and they had the edge of getting out to that big start last week. on the other side, this is still the eighth worst defense in the league and Dallas failed to make adjustments yet the Green Bay defense was on the field for 89 snaps. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia endured a horrible ending to the season as it lost two straight and five of its final six games and no one wants a part of this team heading into the postseason. That being said, the Eagles arguably have the best Wild Card matchup of any team with a lower seed and there are the other doubters that want no part of the Buccaneers that come limping into the postseason as well. It was a weird freefall for a team that started 10-1 and had the NFC East in its grasp but they were unable to capitalize as it started a second half stretch with games against Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas is tough for any team to not only succeed but to recover after and Philadelphia could not do the latter. The Eagles defense fell apart and now sits No. 29 in DVOA but face the second lowest ranked offensive DVOA team in Tampa Bay which is only ahead of Cleveland as the Buccaneers are ranked No. 20 so taking advantage of the Eagles defense will not come easy. The Buccaneers were a flawed team this season, but they won the NFC South and they did it with a winning record but played in the worse division in the NFL. Tampa Bay went 4-2 in its own division and overall, played the No. 25 ranked schedule and while it has success against the lower rated teams with a 9-4 record against teams outside the top ten, it went 0-4 against the top ten teams. The Eagles may not be playing like one now, but that is where they still are. The Eagles offense will be facing a middle of the road defense as Tampa Bay in No. 14 in DVOA but the biggest factor they are dealing with are injuries but some are precautionary and the injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are not serious enough to keep them out. 10* (151) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. Early money has come in on Detroit but we did not seen a line move early but the juice indicated it was coming and eventually did Monday afternoon. We knew this line had to get at least to 3.5 with the Lions being a public team all season and yet this is a bad spot for the home team. Detroit was still in the running for the No. 2 seed up until the final week but needed both the Eagles and Cowboys to lose and because that did not happen, the Lions get a bad matchup in the Wild Card opener. After opening the season 8-2, Detroit went 4-3 down the stretch although that did include the controversial loss against Dallas and now it enters the playoffs with the possibility of not having tight end Sam LaPorta available. The Detroit offense is still very good but will have to rely on Jared Goff more than it would like to as the Rams have had a top 10 defense in DVOA over the second half of the season especially against the run and the interior can slow down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Offensively, the Rams are the No. 2 offense in DVOA in the second half of the season behind only the 49ers and have been No. 1 in EPA since their bye week after Week 9. They have gone 7-1 since then with the lone loss coming in Baltimore in overtime while averaging 31.3 ppg not counting Week 18 when the starters were out. Detroit has a defense ranked No. 13 in DVOA and regressed in the second half, especially against the pass. Over the last 20 years, home teams that did not make the playoffs last season are 13-39 ATS (31 percent). Additionally, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (149) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay made a late run to grab the final seed in the NFC playoffs while clinching the spot against the Bears in Week 18. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, the Packers have won seven of their last 10 games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 128.6, which was the fourth straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has 10 games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Seven of these have been over the last eight games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 6 in offensive DVOA and moved into the top 10 in Non-Adjusted Total DVOA. Dallas has good metrics on defense but have a tough matchup here. The Cowboys apply significant pressure on the quarterback which is bad for some teams but Green Bay has a great offensive line that is ranked No. 2 in Pass Block Win Rate and No. 5 in Adjusted Sack Rate. Defensively is where the Packers struggle as they have the second lowest DVOA of all playoff teams with some bad games in the mix but in 17 games, they have allowed fewer than 24 points 11 times. We all know that the Dallas offense has been great at home and it will no doubt move the ball but we know Green Bay can keep up and the line is reflecting the potent Dallas defense and based on the actual numbers, it is too big of a line in the postseason against a team playing very well. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining seven or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Houston won three of its final four games and coupled with the Jacksonville implosion, the Texans won the AFC South. Their only loss over that stretch was against the Browns but that was without C.J. Stroud playing at quarterback and with a defense not close to full strength so we can toss out that matchup. Excluding Week 18, the Browns have allowed 29.4 ppg on the road compared to allowing 13.9 ppg at home so their overall DVOA of No. 2 defensively is skewed as it is No. 1 at home but a mere No. 23 on the road. And that includes the game against the Stroud-less Texans which was their best road game of the season on defense, allowing 250 yards. While the Houston offense was not at full strength, the defense was not healthy either. Houston allowed just over 20 ppg at home and while included in that was the 36 points allowed to the Browns, the defense was not close to 100 percent. This was the game where Amari Cooper went off for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards but he faced off against backup cornerback D'Angelo Ross while defensive end Will Anderson, Jr. and several other players on defense were out. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a great story for the Browns and he has playoff experience which is considered an edge over Stroud but the latter has not played like the typical rookie and he has the benefit of playing this game at home which takes a lot of pressure off. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (142) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Year. Green Bay and Minnesota caught a break last week with Seattle losing to the Steelers meaning either team would make the playoffs by winning their final two games and it was the Packers who got the job done in Minnesota with a dominating 33-10 win. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, Green Bay has won six of its last nine games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 125.3, which was the third straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has nine games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Six of these have been over the last seven games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 9 in offensive DVOA. Recent experience is going to help the Packers here as last season, they had an identical 8-8 record with a game against a divisional foe at Lambeau Field to earn a playoff berth but lost to the Lions 20-16. Chicago has turned its season around as well which has likely saved Matt Eberflus his job. The Bears have won five of their last seven games but four of those have been at home with the lone road win over this stretch being an ugly 12-10 victory at Minnesota. Chicago has done it with a vastly improved defense and while it did shut down Jared Goff and a potent Lions offense, of their other six wins this season, all have come against offenses ranked No. 22 or worse in offensive DVOA. Quarterback Justin Fields has been better since returning from injury but has only one game with a passer rating over 100 in the six starts since coming back. Green Bay has only five turnovers in its last seven games which negates the Bears defense that has 18 takeaways over their last six games. 10* (464) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. After opening the season 10-1 and having the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Eagles have lost four of their last five games and are now on pace for the No. 5 seed. They are coming off an awful loss against the Cardinals and now have to win and hope the Cowboys get upset at Washington with win the NFC East with the latter looking unlikely. The main focus now is playing a complete game heading into the playoffs no matter where they end up and that starts with the defense that has slid down to No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Whie they let a bad Cardinals offense do what they wanted, Philadelphia has a better matchup here to get right. The Eagles have failed to cover their last five games and are getting value here. In the meeting with the Giants on Christmas, they were favored by two touchdowns and we are now seeing an eight or more point line swing with no one wanting any part of them right now. The Giants put up a solid effort against the Rams as they had a chance to win but missed a last second field goal to make it three straight losses following a three-game winning streak. New York has covered its last two games and five of its last six after a 2-7-1 ATS start so the markets have tried to adjust and with an overadjustment here. The Giants have benefitted from 17 takeaways over this recent six-game stretch which has created favorable situations but that cannot be banked on here. New York remains No. 30 in offensive DVOA and have failed to reach 300 yards in eight of their last nine games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. With Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh all winning last week, Denver has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. We won with the Broncos last week but we expected a better effort on offense which was not the case as they tied for their second lowest scoring output of the season. Jarrett Stidham made his first start over Russell Wilson and he was not much better but he was far from awful and considering the players were likely playing harder because they knew they had a different quarterback, regression likely happens in the second game. Overall, Denver is ranked a respectable No. 18 in offensive DVOA but unlike last week facing a No. 29 ranked defense, the Raiders are ranked No. 11 in defensive DVOA, the Raiders are ranked No. 11. As for their own defense, the Broncos are No. 30 despite a solid effort against the Chargers. Las Vegas was also eliminated for a playoff berth after losing to Indianapolis but we feel there is to play for on this side. The Raiders have played well and seem to care a lot more since interim head coach Antonio Pierce took over and he is still coaching for a possibility to take over full time next year and players have been vocal about keeping him. The offense was good under Quarterback Aidan O'Connell who targeted wide receiver Davante Adams 21 times against the Colts, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns with O'Connell passing for 299 yards. The running game has been a bright spot as since moving into the lineup, Zamir White has 285 yards on 59 carries (4.6 ypc) the last three weeks. The Broncos are ranked No. 31 in rushing defense at 137.6 ypg while the pass rush is mostly nonexistent so Las Vegas can excel again while laying a short price at home. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Tampa Bay had momentum and a favorable schedule on its side but came up small last week in its regular season home finale, losing to New Orleans by 10 points which forces it to win this week to win the division. The Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 4-0 which helped put an end to its four-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield having an efficient game but he tossed two interceptions in there, the most he has thrown this season. Despite early money coming in on Tampa Bay, the number has gone down slightly and anything under a touchdown is well within play for what is on the line, the opponent and the situation. While the Buccaneers are 4-4 on the road, two of those losses were in Buffalo and San Francisco while the other two were against playoff bound Houston or Indianapolis. Carolina was shutout at Jacksonville after scoring a season high 30 points the previous week against Green Bay and the latter was the aberration as the Panthers have failed to reach 20 points in 12 of their 16 games. They are ahead of only the Jets in defensive DVOA and they have averaged just 14.8 ppg which is nearly a touchdown less than their opponents defensive average. Quarterback Bryce Young showed signs of life against the Packers, which have a defensive DVOA of No. 28, but he regressed against the Jaguars which was more in line for his entire rookie season. The defense has performed better than the offense but not by much and Carolina brings in zero home field advantage with its severely inflated attendance numbers. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The playoffs are on the line and the winner of this game not only guarantees a playoff spot but also keeps the AFC South title within reach with some help from Jacksonville. Houston shook off a loss against Cleveland as it easily took out Tennessee and had its 13th game of the season with one or fewer turnovers and that will be a factor here. The Texans welcomed back quarterback C.J. Stroud who missed two games with a concussion and he did not miss a beat, completing 75 percent of his passes, his highest of the season, for 213 yards and a touchdown and while he did not throw for a lot of yards, he did not have to as the Texans built a big lead. Houston is ranked No. 12 in net DVOA which is seven spots higher than Indianapolis and despite having a rookie quarterback, they have the edge at quarterback. The Colts have played better over the second half of the season as they have won six of their last eight games to get into this position. They have won three straight games at home and laying a short price which is going to make them a public play come later in the week. The offense has been up and down with Gardner Minshew, as since taking over as the full time starter, he has four games with a passer rating of 100 or better but also has five games with a rating of 76 or lower. One consistency has been the defense as they are No. 27 in points allowed at 24.5 ppg and gets even worse at home where they give up 25.8 ppg and 358 ypg. The Colts won the first meeting despite getting outgained but the Texans were just 1-4 inside the redzone in what was just the second game of the season for Stroud and he has clearly progressed since then. 10* (469) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Divisional Game of the Month. It took 15 games, but the Broncos finally benched Russell Wilson with the writing being on the wall for quite some time. Since a five-game winning streak, the Broncos have lost three of their last four games including a bad loss at home last week against the Patriots as a touchdown favorite with Wilson coming off his ninth sub-200 yard passing game. It will now be Jarrett Stidham taking over the offense and because of the switch at quarterback, we have seen the line drop around two points or more from the opener. This is a great spot for Stidham to fall into as there is little film for the Chargers to look at and he faces a Chargers pass defense that has allowed the third-highest quarterback rating in the league this season at 99.1. Los Angeles is coming off a hard fought loss against the Bills two points on a last second field goal which was the first game for interim head coach Giff Smith and it was the classic game of a team getting up for the new coach in his first game taking over. It has been a rough season for the Chargers and it was the end for head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after they gave up 63 points in a loss to the Raiders. Los Angeles has been the underdog in six games this season, and it has failed to win any of those contests. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (130) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Chicago is coming off a win last week against Arizona for its fourth win over the last six games with both losses that could have gone the other way and it is still not yet eliminated from playoff contention albeit a slim chance. This is the final home game of the season for Chicago where it has won four straight games with the two losses prior to those coming by a combined nine points. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the fifth-fewest points, second-lowest passer rating and fourth-fewest rushing yards which is a recipe for disaster for the Falcons that have struggled away from home. The Falcons are coming off a season-high 29 points against the Colts where they have scored 28, 24, 25 and 29 points and even despite that output, they have scored the ninth-fewest points in the NFL this season. The reason is Atlanta has been awful away from home as it is averaging fewer than 14 ppg where it is 2-5 including losses against Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona and one win coming against the lowly Jets. The Falcons defense has been what have kept games competitive as they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards passing per game and eighth-lowest completion percentage which may surprise many but this has come against the easiest schedule in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 65-31 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (110) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. First off, coaching matters in this league and Antonio Pierce has come closer to winning the job in Las Vegas after being hired on October 31 as the interim head coach as he has gone 4-3 including a win last week in Kansas City as an 11-point underdog. This is the ultimate letdown spot based on that though and this also comes after a 63-21 win over the Chargers which ultimately led to the firing of Brandon Staley. The Raiders have won the turnover battle over the last two games as they were outgained last week and won the yardage battle against the Chargers by just 52 yards despite the 42-point win. In the game against the Chiefs last week, quarterback Aiden O'Connell was 0-10 over the final three quarters and comes into another tough environment. The Colts are coming off a bad loss at Atlanta which is their second loss over the last three games but both of those were on the road. This is just the third home game for the Colts since the end of October and they close out the season with the final two games at home which is a good situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis is currently in the No. 7 spot, one of four teams at 8-7 with one of those being Houston which comes to town in the season finale. The Colts will get Michael Pittman Jr. back after missing last week. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 21-4 ATS (84 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Arizona lost to Chicago by 11 points and it remains on the road where it is 1-7. Six of those losses have come against teams that are either in the playoffs or still are not eliminated and the five games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his six starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him and he is coming off his best passer rating of his six starts. We are seeing a reverse line move here with 94 percent of the money coming in on the Cardinals but the number has gone up. Overall, Arizona has played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Eagles snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Giants last Saturday but it was still not a pretty victory. Of their 11 wins, eight have come by just one possession including five of the six at home. Philadelphia has failed to cover each of its last four games and that would normally make it a play on team but this is not a number to be laying. The Eagles regained the lead in the NFC East by one game over Dallas and still have an outside chance of the overall top seed in the conference but will need to win out and have the 49ers lose their final two games as San Francsico owns the head-to-head and conference record tiebreakers. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (119) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. This has turned into a big game for Dallas to have any shot at the NFC East following a pair of road losses at Buffalo and Miami as it is now 10-5, trailing the Eagles by one game. The bad news is that Philadelphia is closing with the Cardinals and Giants so the division seems unlikely but it is mostly about momentum right now. The Cowboys are locked into the No. 5 seed as they cannot drop down based on head-to-head wins over the Rams and Seahawks and one of the best parts about this spot is that it is a Saturday game meaning they do not know about the Eagles outcome so they will be out to win and win big. Despite where it is in the standings, Dallas is one of only four teams in the league that is ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive DVOA and a return home is just what it needs at this point. Everyone is aware of the cowboys struggles against winning teams but this is the spot to that that reversed. While it is a get right spot for the Cowboys, this is an awful spot for the Lions which are coming off a win over the Vikings which got them their first division title in 30 years. The locker room afterwords told the story and this is a tough situation to keep it going. Detroit is tied with the 49ers and Eagles with an 11-4 record but it is behind both teams in the two tiebreakers based on conference record and strength of victory and the way the schedule sets up, those two teams are not going to lose. Dallas has covered six straight games following a loss by six points or less, winning those games by an average of 19 ppg. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Cleveland has won three straight games and is one win away from clinching a playoff spot and the situation could not be better. The Browns are 7-1 at home and got the extra home game on their schedule with this being their final home game of the season unless they can catch a lower seed after the first round in the playoffs. Cleveland has been dominant at home where it is 7-1, the lone loss coming against Baltimore in Week Four. The defense has led the charge as the Browns are allowing only 11.8 ppg and 198 ypg on a paltry 3.7 yppl and face one of the worst offenses in the league. The Browns remain No. 1 in overall defensive DVOA and face off against the No. 32 offensive DVOA in the league. The offense has gone through four different starting quarterbacks but they have found their guy as Joe Flacco has rejuvenated the offense as he has thrown for 326.8 ypg in his four starts with 10 touchdowns and he just needs to cut down on the picks. The Jets defense will be a challenge as they are No. 3 in DVOA but like Cleveland, they are better at home than on the road. New York has definitely slowed down as after allowing more than 27 points only once in its first nine games, it has given up 28 or more points in four of their last six games. Offensively, they are coming off a solid game against Washington but this is a different test after their last home game with New England on deck. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Game of the Year. San Francisco is rolling along with six straight wins, all by double digits, and this is a perfect sell high opportunity. The 49ers have defeated five potential playoff teams over this stretch (Seattle twice) but four of those are going the wrong way, Philadelphia, Seattle and Jacksonville, with the other coming against Tampa Bay which is right at .500. San Francisco has overtaken the No. 1 seed in the NFC with outright wins over the Eagles and Cowboys so it is in great position to keep that, even with a loss here, as the remaining schedule is in its favor. Because of the recent run, this line has risen and is not a true indicator of the differential between these two teams. The 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in Net DVOA and Net EPA but Baltimore is right there. The Ravens are No. 2 in Net DVOA and tied for No. 2 in Net EPA as they bring in an identical 11-3 record and sit atop the AFC, one game ahead of Miami with a game at home against the Dolphins next week. Baltimore has won four straight games and eight of its last nine games with the only blemish coming against Cleveland where it blew a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a last second field goal. While San Francisco is the only team in the NFC with a DVOA in the top five in both offense and defense and the Ravens are the only team in the AFC to stake that claim as well. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog in his career so these have been the spots he has thrived in. Here, we play against favorites averaging 385 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (481) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Underdog Game of the Month. Chicago nearly won its third straight game but could not secure a Hail Mary to end the game against Cleveland as it blew a 17-7 lead going into the fourth quarter. The recent success in addition to three straight losses by one possession is overvaluing the Bears as they are favored for only the third time this season and by their biggest amount. The defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season but will be facing their first mobile quarterback since playing Kansas City in Week Three. Chicago is still No. 24 in offensive DVOA as Justin Fields has been adequate but has regressed over the last four games. They are in a bad spot coming off that disheartening loss and the Bears have played down to the opposition going back to last season as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Arizona lost to San Francisco by 16 points and it hits the road where it is 1-6. Five of those losses have come against teams that are either in or still alive in the playoffs and the four games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his five starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him. He brings that added running dimension that can keep the Bears off balance and something they have not seen. Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (473) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is a big reverse line move as major money has come in on the Colts yet the line has risen from the opener of -1.5. The Falcons are coming off a bad loss against Carolina where they managed just one touchdown but that game was played in horrible weather and now they are back home in the dome. They are 4-3 at home with two of those losses coming by a combined seven points. Here, we have another game with a quarterback change as Taylor Heinicke will make his third start and he is far from a downgrade from Desmond Ridder. Expect to see more running this week after the Falcons has been held to fewer than 100 yards in each of their last three games and will be facing a bad Colts rushing defense. Atlanta is still in the running for first place in the NFC South as they trail Tampa Bay by one game and the remaining schedule is favorable but this is the big one as this is their final home game of the season. Indianapolis has been a pleasant surprise in the AFC as it is currently in a playoff spot at 7-7 as the Colts have won five of their last six games. Two of those wins were on the road but one was against Carolina and the other needed overtime against Tennessee. The Colts do not do anything particularly good with their offensive running game being the biggest strength and they have been a very fortunate team as they are No. 6 in the Luck Rankings with the biggest factor being 5-2 in one possession games. 10* (458) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive with a win on Monday night against the Eagles in the final minute to move to 7-7. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Seahawks which have now covered three straight games and that gives us value as this number has gone up from the opener of -1.5. Give credit to Drew Lock for the winning drive against Philadelphia and he has played two solid games replacing Geno Smith but the latter is expected back and that is not a real big advantage. The Seahawks have regressed in their offense overall and especially in the running game as they got to 100 yards last week for the first time in five games and hitting the road is an issue as Seattle is 0-5 in its last five road games. Tennessee has had a rough season as it is now 5-9 following an overtime loss against Houston and Case Keenum and that was its fourth loss by four points or less. The Titans were coming off a couple of solid games offensively against Indianapolis and Miami but could not do much last week after jumping out to a 13-0 lead. This week, Ryan Tannehill could over at quarterback for Will Levis who has an injured ankle and even though he lost his job, he is one of the better backups in the league. There will be no quit for this team with head coach Mike Vrabel and he has been one of the best coaches in these spots. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Despite three straight losses, Pittsburgh is not dead yet as it is 7-7, tied with Denver for tenth place in the AFC and just a game out of sixth place but there are a few teams it has to leapfrog. The schedule is not great with the final two games of the season at Seattle and at Baltimore making this their final home game of the season. There is talk of head coach Mike Tomlin sitting on the hot seat which is pretty laughable considering what he has had to deal with at the quarterback position and another change is in store this week with Mason Rudolph getting the start. He has seen limited action the last three seasons but it can be an edge with limited film. The Bengals were left for dead when Joe Burrow was lost for the season but behind Jake Browning, they have won three straight games after losing his first start against the Steelers. Cincinnati is now 8-6 and in position to get into the playoffs but like Pittsburgh, the schedule is not on its side with a game at Kansas city on deck and then the season finale at home against Cleveland. The recent runs have seen a complete line shift from that first meeting as the Bengals go from a home underdog against Pittsburgh to a road favorite against the same team. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Year. The Rams are peaking at the right time, coming off a win over Commanders to make it four wins in their last five games to get to 7-7 and this is a crucial game where they can gain a tiebreaker over the 7-7 Saints. One key factor is the health of Los Angeles on the offensive side and it is humming along right now. The Rams have moved to No. 7 in offensive DVOA against a schedule ranked No. 7 and they are the highest ranked 7-7 team in the league. One huge key for the offense is a running game that has come to life the last four games behind Kyren Williams. While going 1-4 against the top ten and all losses against Super Bowl contenders, they are 6-3 against the rest of the league and this is their final home game of the season with games remaining against the Giants and 49ers. The Saints have played the easiest schedule in the league and backing that up is the fact they have been favored in 12 of their 14 games. New Orleans lost and failed to cover both games as an underdog and have actually been the unluckiest team in the NFL which is to their credit as its 7-7 record has played out with what should be a 9-5 record as it has won by 18, 22, 11 and 34 points this season, but it is just 3-5 in one-score games. But this is where the strength of schedule needs to be factored in as three of those lopsided wins were against the Patriots, Panthers and Giants which are a combined 10-32. The offense continues to struggle with a net DVOA ranking of No. 20 with a pretty non-existent running game and while Derek Carr is coming off his best passer rating game of the season, he is not the same on the road. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Both Philadelphia and Seattle are leaking some oil and the Eagles are in the spot to turn it around. They have lost two straight games in blowouts against San Francisco and Dallas which came after a pair of close wins over Kansas City and Buffalo so the schedule has been brutal. It eases up starting this week and they control their own destiny in the NFC East with their remaining games against the Giants twice and the Cardinals so of they win out, they will have the better conference record than Dallas. Despite the recent struggles, Philadelphia remains No. 8 in net DVOA and just as important, it is No. 2 in special teams DVOA. What has really hurt the Eagles of late has been their rushing defense but Seattle has done nothing on the ground as it has rushed for fewer than 90 yards in eight of 13 games and it is No. 15 in the league in rushing EPA. The Seahawks have lost four straight games to fall a game under .500 and the playoff prospects are getting bleaker so this is a needed win but it is not a good matchup. The Seattle defense has struggled all season and especially against above average offenses with the three best games coming very early in the season and the Seahawks have dropped to No. 26 in defensive DVOA. They were without quarterback Geno Smith last week against San Francisco and while he returns this week, he has struggled this season with an 89.1 passer rating after posting a 100.9 rating last season. Despite the big majority of money being on the Eagles, we have seen this line come down. 10* (327) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Unfortunately we have seen this number come down as it opened at 5.5 and was hit hard early but Jacksonville is still catching a hook over a key number and with the majority of money on Baltimore despite the early line move, we should not see this number go anywhere and up if it does move. The Jaguars were looking good in the AFC South following a win over Houston but they have lost two straight games against teams from the AFC North and have seen their lead remain at one game thanks to the Texans loss against the Jets last week. Jacksonville has only dropped one spot to No. 10 in net DVOA with the defense still leading the way at No. 8 despite the last two below average games. Baltimore now has the upper hand in the AFC thanks to the Miami loss on Monday night against Tennessee as it has a one game lead for the No. 1 seed with a huge game against the Dolphins on New Years Eve. The Ravens are coming off a fortunate win over the Rams in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown to move to 10-3 including a three-game winning streak. They are the most complete team in the AFC and are favorites here for a reason but the spot does not set up well with this being just their second road game since the end of October. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 91-46 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (330) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams are coming off an excruciating loss at Baltimore last week, losing in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown and the game atmosphere and situation does not make it any easier. Los Angeles played one of its most physical games of the season in horrible conditions which will be tough to recover from despite a return home where it does not have a significant advantage. The Rams had their three-game winning snapped with the loss and they are going to be one of, if not the biggest, public play on the entire card. They should score but their No. 23 defensive DVOA is a big concern when laying a large number. Washington is coming off its bye week following four straight losses where it was unable to generate a single takeaway and lost the turnover battle 9-0 in those games. Those are the fluky things that have killed the Commanders as in their nine losses, they are on the wrong side of and 18-5 turnover ratio. The Rams have generated only 11 takeaways and Washington needs to rely on taking care of the ball. While they are 0-5 against the top 10 in the league, the Commanders are 4-4 against everyone else and are catching too big of a number here. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Green Bay was on a roll as it had won three straight games prior to Monday night where it lost to the Giants which took a hit on its playoff hopes. The Packers are now tied with four other teams at 6-7 and currently hold down the No. 7 spot as they own most tiebreakers but this is a week-to-week change. They head home where they have won three straight games including a big win over Kansas City in the most recent game and last week, turnovers finally caught up at -3. In their three wins, they are +6 in margin and Tampa Bay does not turn it over as it is No. 7 in giveaways. Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first place with Atlanta and New Orleans thanks to two consecutive wins and like Green Bay, it has the tiebreakers currently in its favor and this one will go a long way. The Buccaneers have ramped up the running game over the last three games, averaging 133.7 ypg on 4.8 ypc and this could be big based on the weather forecast where wind could play a factor making the running game an integral part. The Packers rushing defense was exposed again last week and have allowed 170.4 ypg over their last five games and are ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing DVOA. Here, we play against home teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We have seen a complete line flip in this game with Houston opening as the favorite prior to the games last week and now the Texans are underdogs based on the results along with the status of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud was ruled out on Saturday and Davis Mills is a capable backup with plenty of experience in a get right spot and an opposition play against. The Texans have dropped two of their last three games and are sitting in the No. 8 spot in the AFC based on conference record, tied with six teams at 7-6 for the final two spots. Three of their last four games are in the division and all four in the AFC so they can feasibly run the table. Tennessee is coming off an improbable win on Monday night against Miami, trailing by 14 points with 2:40 remaining but scored the final 15 points for the upset. The Titans have won two of their last three games and have gone 0-4 in their first four games following a win and this is a big letdown spot despite a return home in a divisional game. Quarterback Will Levis led the comeback and while some are calling it his coming out party, he was not playing well prior to that. Despite the victory, Tennessee dropped to No. 24 in net DVOA. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (315) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Everyone is all of a sudden sour on Detroit as it has put up four straight poor games but somehow was able to come away 2-2 in those games. The Lions are coming off another game where turnovers were the story as those two losses over this stretch were the result of a -3 turnover margin. Detroit now closes the season with its final four games taking place in a dome and this is where it will get its momentum back and starting here in a great spot. The Lions remain No. 7 in the league in net DVOA despite the loss to Chicago which happened to be the first loss in seven games against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that is where Denver still resides. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league as they have now won six of their last seven games and are now one of six teams looking for two playoff spots in the AFC. Denver was fortunate last week against the Chargers with Justin Herbert going down and that was its third win in the last three games going up against a backup quarterback. That has skewed the defensive numbers but the Broncos still come in ranked No. 30 in defensive DVOA. This is the wrong time to go to Detroit. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (312) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 3-0 win over the Raiders Sunday and coupled with the Packers loss Monday, the Vikings leapfrogged Green Bay and are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC, one game ahead of five teams that are 6-7. The win snapped a two-game slide and this is the final non-division game remaining on the schedule and it is definitely a must win. The quarterback situation is unsettled but we will likely see Nick Mullins start this week who came in relief and led the game-winning drive. This is a very underrated defense for the Vikings as they are No. 5 in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Many thought the Bengals were done after quarterback Joe Burrow went down for the season but they are very much still alive for a playoff spot although the schedule does not set up well. Cincinnati is one of six teams tied at 7-6 which are vying for two playoff spots. Jake Browning has been the story as he has looked great in two games since taking over the starting job with passer ratings of 115.5 and 122.7 and we just do not think this is sustainable. On the other side, the Bengals are No. 26 in defensive DVOA which is a big boost for that Vikings offense. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers season is officially cooked after losing quarterback Justin Herbert to a right index finger fracture as they fell to 5-8 following a loss against Denver on Sunday. Ethan Stick came in on the fly and was not horrible and now he has at least had a few days of preparation for this game and we are seeing a seven-point swing from this early opener and that is just too much with what Herbert has done this season. Los Angeles will continue to rally especially in a divisional game and we will see a healthy dose of the running game as the Chargers had their second highest rushing output in the first meeting. One key factor is that Los Angeles is No. 1 in special teams DVOA which is often overlooked. The Raiders were involved in one of the ugliest games in recent memory as they were shutout against Minnesota on Sunday and it was the 11th time in 12 games they have scored 18 or fewer points. Quarterback Aiden O'Connell was coming off a good game against Kansas City but could muster nothing against Minnesota and it was his third game in his last four starts with a passer rating of 72 or less. Las Vegas is No. 29 in offensive DVOA and the running game is just as much to blame as it is No. 29 in rushing EPA. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 93-38 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Annihilator. Miami has won three straight games to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the time being and we are going to lay the big number in the first of three straight home games for the Dolphins. They have feasted on bad teams as they are 7-0 straight up and ATS against teams with a losing record when facing them and going back, 13-4-1 ATS under head coach Mike McDaniel. Miami has improved to No. 4 in net DVOA including No. 2 in offense and have another great matchup here. Tennessee is coming off a brutal loss against Indianapolis in overtime as a missed extra point in regulation late in the fourth quarter could have won it although this has been a lost season to begin with. The Titans are 4-8 and have lost four of their last five games with the only win coming against 1-11 Carolina and it has been a struggle for rookie quarterback Will Levis. The good news for Tennessee is it should have Derrick Henry who has been in concussion protocol but he has been underutilized as he is averaging his fewest carries per game since 2018-19. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after one or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being 20 ppg. 10* (130) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay has turned the corner under quarterback Jordan Love as it has won three straight games to improve to 6-6 and get back into the playoff picture in the NFC. All three wins have been as an underdog and now the Packers go from that to a large road favorite as they are now a public darling as they are catching 94 percent of the early money. Green Bay has benefitted from a 5-0 turnover advantage during its winning streak and is coming off a huge win at home against Kansas City and this is only the second time all season it has been a favorite. The Giants have won two straight games as underdogs and they too have benefitted from turnovers with a 9-1 advantage over the two games so it can be said they too have been fortunate but they are not the team laying close to a touchdown. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has turned into a cult hero and while he is not the long term answer, he has managed games well with a passer rating of 137.7 and 103.9 over the last two games with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. Coming off a bye, New York is in a great contrarian spot that favors underdogs in these situations against teams coming in on a significant winning streak. Here, we play against road favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) New York Giants

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. We have seen this line go up since opening and it has crossed the key number of three which is big in a divisional game with similar opponents. The public is in love with the Cowboys which has caused the move as they have won four straight games, the first three in blowout fashion, but they struggled against Seattle last Thursday. Dallas does have the advantage of playing with some extra rest but that is not a big issue here, the issue is who they are playing. The Cowboys have rolled over the bad team that are not playoff contenders, with the Rams being a fringe contender, but they have struggled with the four teams that are in playoff position and now the schedule cranks up the next four weeks so we will see how good they really are. The Eagles were blown out at home last week against the 49ers but they were coming off three tough games against Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo and while it does not get any easier here, last week was a wake up call and we get a line advantage because of that. Philadelphia has been one of the most lucky teams in the league and it has gotten away with some close calls but the numbers do not lie as the Eagles are No. 8 in net DVOA and while it has been a brutal stretch, they are pretty healthy once again. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been gimping around but he will be fine and this could be the breakout after three straight below average games. 10* (127) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville suffered a big loss on Monday and an even bigger loss going forward with Trevor Lawrence leaving with an ankle injury. It does not sound overly serious and he has not completely been ruled out for Sunday as of Wednesday and while he likely will not go, the Jaguars, like what many teams do, will rally around him and C.J. Beathard and the rest of the team will give a big effort following that loss. Jacksonville but picking up steam on defense before last week but is still No. 6 in defensive DVOA and has a great matchup here. Cleveland has lost two straight games and while those were on the road and it has been a much better team at home, the offense has regressed. Even though it was never very good, the offense has averaged only 14.7 ppg over their last three games and they are getting more banged up. Quarterback Joe Flacco made his first start and while he threw for 254 yards, he completed only 52.3 percent of his passes and finished with a 75.4 rating. The defense remains great and is awesome at home but have been going the wrong way. Here, we play against home favorites averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight losses by 10 points or more going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Indianapolis is on a roll right now with four straight wins and with the injury to Trevor Lawrence, it is very much alive in the AFC South. The Colts are currently in the No. 7 spot in the AFC and tied with three other teams at 7-5 with a very manageable closing schedule. The offense has been sneaky good with Garnder Minshew at quarterback but a lot of that is due to the defense that has produced 20 takeaways this season and their 1.7 per game is tied for fifth in the NFL. Overall, that defense is No. 12 in DVOA and has a great matchup this week. Cincinnato is coming off a huge upset over Jacksonville on Monday night as quarterback Jake Browning looked like a veteran and he has been very serviceable in his two starts. But now, teams have film on him and can better scheme for him and he is due for a regression. The defense continues to struggle as the Bengals have allowed 30 points or more in three of their last four games and are currently No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Cincinnati is No. 13 in offensive DVOA but that can be attributed but that is when they caught fire in Week Five and had a sustainable run with Joe Burrow. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The weather looks to be a big factor in many of the east coast games and this is certainly one of those as we have seen the total drop from 38.5 to 33 but the line has only come down a half point. There is rain and wind in the forecast and that is going cause the most problems for the Houston offense which likes to throw the ball downfield. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has had an incredible rookie season but could struggle in these conditions and he will be without one of his top receivers with Tank Bell going down for the rest of the season. While the offense could be limited, the defense has been average as the Texans are ranked No. 15 in DVOA. The Jets offense will certainly be limited as it has been all season and they have averaged only 9.0 ppg during their five-game losing streak. We are not too concerned about that as they are getting value based on their own struggles, especially going 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and the public love for Houston. The defense has kept them competitive in games mostly not against elite competition as New York is No. 3 in defensive DVOA. The quarterback situation has obviously been a mess but can only go up. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. In what is expected to be a very low scoring game with a total sitting at 30, there is a lot of value in the significant underdog. The Steelers are 7-5 following a loss last week against Arizona so they are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. However, they have been exposed on offense especially over the last three weeks as Pittsburgh has put up only 12 ppg which has lowered their average to 16 ppg. The Steelers are No. 25 in offensive EPA and now have to go with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, even though Kenny Pickett was not doing much himself, and while he put up a high passer rating last week, he completed just 11 passes for 117 yards. The Patriots have had a rough season from the start with an even worse offense but to their credit, they continue to play hard, especially on defense as they have gotten healthier. They have allowed only 26 points over their last three games and have lost four straight one possession games to make it seven of 10 losses coming by a touchdown or less. New England is doing nothing on offense either but it will not take a great effort this week to keep this one close. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) New England Patriots

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our AFC Game of the Month. This would have been a marquee matchup a few weeks ago but the loss of Joe Burrow has taken the steam out of it and this line is now nine points higher than the early line that came out over the summer. Is Burrow worth nine points? The short answer is probably no but are more factors going into it. Cincinnati is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh by six points and while that seems like a close defeat, it was not. The Bengals were outgained 421-222 and it was the first time Pittsburgh gained over 400 yards of total offense in over three years which shows how bad this defense really is. Cincinnati is allowing 6.2 yppl which is the most in the league and a full yard more than last season and it has moved to No. 26 in defensive DVOA and No. 26 in defensive EPA. The Jaguars are coming off a pair of divisional wins to improve to 8-3 and the matchup could not be better here. The offense has been inconsistent all season and is ranked No. 17 in DVOA but now faces an awful defense so that is not an issue. The defense has been exceptional as the Jaguars are No. 5 in defensive DVOA and catches a break as they face Jake Browning who did not look horrible last week but did have some lucky breaks go his way. Jacksonville should dominate on this side as well. Here, we play against road teams with a pathetic allowing 6.0 or more yppl, after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City finally got its offense going last week after falling behind 14-0 as the Chiefs put up 31 points which surprisingly is tied for its second highest output of the season. The Chiefs are now in a tough spot coming off that divisional win with a game against Buffalo on deck so it is a letdown lookahead situation. This offense managed 360 total yards which is still below their season average so saying that are back is not justified. Travis Kelce had a typical big game and they got a huge effort from rookie Rashee Rice for his best game of the season but this receiving corps is still underachieving. The Chiefs are No. 12 in the luck rankings so despite a recent 7-3 ATS run, it is a bit deceiving. Green Bay is coming off a Thanksgiving win over Detroit which was its second straight underdog win to improve to 5-6 on the season. The Packers have lost some tough games this season as four of their defeats have come by a total of 11 points. Quarterback Jordan Love has been playing a lot better and is obviously more comfortable after some midseason struggles and he has put up a passer rating of 108.5 or better in three of his last four game. Defensively, they have improved as well and are now No. 7 in pressure rate, No. 5 in quarterback knockdown percentage and No. 7 in hurry rate. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of big wins as it got its revenge against the Chiefs and battled Buffalo to the end last week in an overtime win and it only gets tougher this week. The Eagles are 10-1 and a very fortunate 10-1 with seven of those 10 wins coming by just one possession including their last four games. In those recent games, Philadelphia was outgained in all four of those by 98, 114, 98 and 127 yards so it has not even been close so basically most everything has gone right. With an offense that has averaged only 320.5 ypg over this four-game run, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. The Eagles defense was on the field for over 40 minutes and 95 plays last week and now have a very physical test. San Francisco has won three straight games following a three-game losing streak where it was riddled with injuries. The 49ers are coming off a pretty easy win over Seattle where it was not given much of a challenge and now they have had the extra rest coming off a short week prior to that. Defensively, they are coming off their best three-game stretch of the season with only 30 points allowed on just 242.6 ypg and the 49ers have moved to No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The other side has been even better as San Francisco is No. 1 in offensive DVOA as it is now averaging 32.4 ppg taking out those three losses when numerous offensive pieces were missing. This game has been circled following the playoff loss from last season when Brock Purdy had to leave the game and the result was an embarrassing 31-7 loss. 10* (467) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. This is a minimal public play with Detroit but it is not as popular as it normally would have been just a few weeks ago but the Lions are coming off a pair of ugly games and this is a big one to get right. Detroit was able to salvage a win against the Bears despite losing the turnover battle 4-1 but could not match that on Thanksgiving as it lost to Green Bay with another -3 turnover margin. The Lions won the yardage battle in both of those games including a 464-377 advantage last week and face another very average team and while it is on the road, it is on the turf. Detroit is No. 7 in net DVOA with both units ranking in the top 10. New Orleans lost at Atlanta last week but it still very much alive in the NFC South at 5-6 which is keeping this number down. The Saints relied on their defense early in the season but have regressed of late by allowing 25.2 ppg over their last five games. They are still a respectable No. 13 in defensive DVOA but have faced some poor offenses as in their 11 games, that have gone against an offense eight times that is bottom half of the league in DVOA and the best they have faced is ranked No. 9 and remain without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Offensively, New Orleans is hurting with their top three receivers all in jeopardy of missing this game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (453) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Washington is coming off a blowout loss on Thanksgiving against Dallas which was its third straight loss to fall to 4-8 and it is catching another big number this week. The Commanders parted ways with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as it has been a struggle and while it does not look to get any easier here, players tend to step up in these spots after a coach getting let go. They are ranked No. 31 in defensive DVOA which is obviously horrible but it could not be in a better contrarian spot after everyone saw them get lit up against the Cowboys. They have been adequate on offense with efficiency and Sam Howell is still slinging it around and facing a middle of the pack defense. Miami is coming off a Black Friday win over the Jets on the road and is laying a similar number here coming off a big divisional win. The Dolphins have won two straight games following a mediocre 3-3 run and while those losses were against elite teams, this being the second of a back-to-back road set, it sets up similar to the first two games of the season where it scored 36 in the season opener and followed that up with just 24 points against the Patriots in their second back-to-back game. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 8-4-1 ATS this season. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving as they ran away from Washington in the second half as this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 5-0 at home and have outscored opponents by 29 ppg but those have been against some poor teams with the Rams being the best of the bunch and none possessing a winning record. Despite that, this looks like they are laying a number to another losing team but they are putting it down against a competent team. Dallas is now 8-3 but has played only two teams with a winning record and lost both of those so we are not comparing San Francisco and Philadelphia to Seattle, this is way too aggressive. Dallas has played the second easiest schedule in the league and has moved up to No. 4 in net DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA so the numbers back up the record which has been helped by the easy slate. Dallas is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. The Seahawks are coming off a Thanksgiving loss to the 49ers and while that was a bad call, we are back on the Seahawks again despite hitting the road. They have lost two straight games and three of their last four and have San Francisco and Philadelphia on deck so there has to be a win in their somewhere to avoid falling out of the playoff hunt. The health of Geno Smith has been a concern but he has had another week to help his injured elbow and Seattle hopes to get Kenneth Walker back after missing the last two games. This line has gone up four points since opening at 5.5 a week ago in some spots and this is simply a massive overreaction. Here, we play against favorites averaging 360 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers fell to 4-6 with a 23-20 loss at Green Bay which makes in five times in those six defeats they have lost by a field goal or less. That includes all three losses at home and those came against Miami, Dallas and Detroit so it has been elite competition they have fallen to and get another similar opponent this week although now they are catching the biggest number of the bunch. Los Angeles is in the top half of the league in both net DVOA and net EPA and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 8 in the NFL. Baltimore shook off its last second loss to Cleveland with a win last Thursday night against Cincinnati but caught a big break there with quarterback Joe Burrow going down for the season. The Ravens are 8-3 and have a half-game lead over Cleveland in the AFC South but the schedule has been favorable as they are coming off a three-game homestand and this is just their second true road game since October 8. Baltimore is top five in both net DVOA and net EPA but it suffered a huge injury in its own right last week with tight end Mark Andrews lost for the season, adding to an already impacted injury report. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Year. This could be a season defining game for Buffalo which rolled the Jets last week in its first game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Now the Bills hit the road against a much better team but they are catching a great number and they could have some renewed confidence in what is now a wide open AFC. While they have underperformed, the difference in turnovers and how they have occurred has been the situation as they are No. 7 in turnover worthy play rate. Buffalo is now ranked No. 5 in net DVOA while Philadelphia comes in at No. 10. The Eagles picked up a big win over Kansas City last week and it was a very fortunate one with the Chiefs making too many critical mistakes as well as a late dropped touchdown pass. Philadelphia is now 9-1 with six of those wins coming by one possession which puts it No. 2 in the latest Luck Rankings. Good teams know how to win and that is what the Eagles do but they are well down in the metrics compared to that record. Even in net EPA, they are well behind the Bills at No. 9 compared to Buffalo at No. 3. The Super Bowl revenge win presents the letdown here. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 58-29 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (267) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland took out Pittsburgh last week to keep pace in the AFC North with Baltimore as it is a game back and could leave town with the lead should the Ravens trip up against the Chargers. Dorian Thompson-Robinson picked up his first win as a starter and it was not very pretty but it was enough where the Browns relied on the defense which is what we expect again here. It is important that this will be his second straight week of work with the first team. The defense remains No. 1 in both net DVOA and net EPA. Denver was looking like the team from last season with a 1-5 start but it has won four straight games which is actually the longest current winning streak in the NFL, to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Broncos are favored again this week against another backup quarterback and escaped with a one point win over Minnesota last week despite getting outgained by close to 100 yards as they won the turnover battle 3-0. The difference this week the Vikings do not have close to the defense as the Browns do and Denver could not must 300 yards of offense. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight wins by three or less points going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Jacksonville had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 31-point loss against San Francisco but got it back last week against Tennessee with a 20-point victory. The Jaguars hit the road where they are 3-0 in true road games with this being the toughest opponent to date. They are 7-3 overall and have a one game lead over Houston in the AFC South who they lost to in Week Three so they are playing with revenge. Despite the strong start, Jacksonville is ranked only No. 21 in net EPA which is nine spots lower than the opponent it is favored over today. Houston opened 0-2 so it took a while to get its footing and it has made a great turnaround with wins in six of its last eight games including three straight. The two recent losses were both on the road and by two points each so the Texans come in on a four-game home winning streak. They are No. 12 in net EPA and net DVOA with similar splits on both sides of the ball. The story has been rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who is now No. 8 in QB rating and has put up a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. The Texans are undervalued here with the wrong team favored. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss against opponent, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 31-6 ATS (83.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (252) Houston Texans

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The 49ers are coming in as big road favorites and while those spots have been good to take on Thanksgiving, this is a good spot to fade in a divisional game with a lot on the line. San Francisco has a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West following a pair of wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay which happened to be the first two games back at pretty much full strength with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returning for the offense. The 49ers swept all three games last season including a 41-23 win in the playoffs setting up a big revenge spot for the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a loss to the Rams by a point as it missed a last second field goal making it two of its four losses coming against the Rams. The Seahawks are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC and this starts a stretch of four games against the 49ers twice, Dallas and Philadelphia so they need to at least take care of business at home. Seattle is 4-1 at home including four straight wins and while the competition has not been great, the metrics are still good taking the strength of schedule into consideration. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just 1.5 ppg. 10* (110) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This is a big number to be laying with the Cowboys which are always a big public play on Thanksgiving but we are backing them in a great situational spot. Dallas has not been very good on Thanksgiving covering numbers but this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 4-0 at home and have outscored opponents by nearly 28 ppg and while those have been against some poor teams, their opponent Thursday falls into that as well. Dallas has moved up to No. 6 in DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA with both offense and defense ranked in the top 5. Washington is coming off a brutal loss to the Giants last week as it committed six turnovers in the 12-point defeat. The Commanders are now 4-7 and likely out of playoff consideration with a very tough upcoming schedule with three games against two of the top teams in the NFC. Washington has fallen to No. 27 in DVOA and No.. 26 in net EPA with the offense landing at No. 22 and defense being No. 30. Quarterback Sam Howell had a decent run going but was dreadful against New York and he has been sacked 51 times this season and Dallas is the No. 6 ranked blitzing team in the league. He leads the league in passing yards but is No. 22 in QBR. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average scoring differential being 22.6 ppg. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Minnesota is one of the hottest teams in the NFL as it has won five consecutive games to get within a game and a half of Detroit in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered all five of those games as well, the last two with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and he has been a great story but those wins were against the NFC South, the worst division in football. They now head out west to face another team on a turnaround and one that is more justified at this point. The Vikings are the public darling right now with the longest winning streak in the league and are catching 82 percent of the money yet this line has not budged since opening and that is telling. The Broncos have won three straight games to move to 4-5 to get right into the playoff hunt. They are coming back home for a pair of games where they have won two in a row after dropping their first three games in Denver. The defense has been outstanding during this recent winning streak as they have allowed only 16 ppg which has helped an offense that has not been very productive. While Russell Wilson has not put up big numbers, he has been efficient with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions and a 104.0 passer rating. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (474) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Seattle is tied atop the NFC West with the 49ers at 6-3 but while San Francisco is +109 in scoring differential, the Seahawks are -1 and they have been outgained overall by 209 yards. Seattle is at the top of the list as one of the most overrated teams with a winning record and they could be exposed with its upcoming schedule. They are coming off a win over Washington which was their second win in three games which were by a combined seven points and both at home. Taking a look at the teams they have dominated, they are the Panthers, Giants and Cardinals and while the other cover came against Detroit, that was in overtime where the Lions did not even see the ball. This is a possible lookahead with a Thanksgiving game on deck against the 49ers. Los Angeles is coming off its bye week which came at a great time after a brutal stretch. The Rams have dropped three straight games, failing to cover any of those but just one of those was with Matthew Stafford playing a full game and that was the loss to Pittsburgh where the defense allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Stafford will return this week and he brings a different dynamic to the offense especially with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Even with Stafford and Kupp missing time, the Rams are No. 15 in offensive DVOA which is nothing special but that is just two spots below Seattle. 10* (470) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Steelers keep finding ways to win as they are now 6-3 following a pair of wins over Tennessee and Green Bay and while those wins are not saying much, they come into a good spot this week. Pittsburgh was turnover free in both of those games and it has only four turnovers in its last seven games after committing four turnovers in its first two games. This is the first of two straight divisional games where they are 2-0 and three of the final four games against the AFC North will be against teams without their starting quarterback with Joe Burrow our for the season. The defense continues to lead the way as Pittsburgh is No. 7 in defensive DVOA and have a great matchup here. Cleveland is coming off an improbable win over Baltimore as it rallied from a 24-9 and won on a last second field goal to also improve to 6-3. Quarterback Deshawn Watson delivered an inspired effort in the second half to pull off the victory but it was announced that he is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Granted he was not having the best season overall but now the ball will be in the hands of rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who made one start and he was awful against the Ravens, going 19-36 for 121 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Granted, he was thrust into that game with no preparation and while he has had practice this week with the top unit, he will struggle. 10* (451) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit is coming off a win over the Chargers for their second straight win following their second loss of the season at Baltimore. The Lions lead the NFC North by a game and a half over the surging Vikings and their offense has led the way as they are No. 2 overall and No. 6 in scoring. They have been buoyed by a rushing offense that has put up over 200 yards in each of their last two games but face a very underrated Bears defense that has improved dramatically. Detroit has been one of the better teams against the number which adds value and it has the lookahead to Thanksgiving. Chicago has been an improving team as it is 3-3 over its last six games and after getting blown out in each of its first three games, the Bears last four losses have come by one possession and they have outgained their opponent in six of their last seven games. The Bears are on a mini bye following a Thursday night game which is always beneficial this late into the season and we have seen this line come down based on the return of Justin Fields at quarterback but we are still above two key numbers in a divisional game. The Chicago defense has improved after an awful start and the numbers prove that as they have allowed 214 passing yards or less in five of their last seven games while giving up an average of only 56.4 ypg on the ground. 10* (461) Chicago Bears