I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Nebraska/OSU UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener. I feel that the number is generously high. Yes, the Huskers have a fairly experienced offense. However, that same offense couldn't move the ball against OSU  Last year's game between these teams saw the Buckeyes win 48-7. That was at Nebraska, a game which had been highly anticipated as a possible test for the Big Ten champs. Instead, it marked the third time in four meetings that Nebraska scored 14 or fewer points. The Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground (368 rushing yards) while playing great defense. They'll be looking to employ a similar strategy here. With both teams playing their first game, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 

I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. All the talk is and will be about Saban. I'm more interested in the game being played on the field. We've come to know Alabama as an elite defensive team, over the years. The Tide are more known for their offense these days though, as they've got some elite players on that side of the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Alabama still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide defense is going to be very motivated, too. Both to show that Georgia isn't the only elite defense in this game and to show that they're much better than we saw last week. The Alabama offense hasn't faced a defense like this one though. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this of his defense: "The atmosphere that's been credited on defense here is we're not letting them score." Last week, they limited Tennessee to less than one yard (-1) on the ground and 0 points, in the second half. The Bulldogs will be doing everything they can to chew up the clock when they're on offense. The last time that these teams met in October, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 48. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Kentucky/Tennessee UNDER the total. Entering the season, some ranked Kentucky's defense as third best in the SEC. Considering the number of strong defenses in the conference, that was saying something. While the experienced defense took a couple of weeks to get going, the Wildcats come off an outstanding defensive effort. In fact, they held Mississippi State to just two points. The Bulldogs only points came on a safety. Pretty good given that the Bulldogs entered that game with the SEC's top passing attack (468 yards per game) and the No. 2 offense (516.0). On the other side of the ball, despite the score, the Kentucky offense was pretty dismal. In fact, Kentucky managed a mere 157 yards of offense. While they struggled at Georgia, the Vols limited Missouri to a mere 12 points in their lone home game. Last year's meeting produced 30 combined points. The year before saw just 31 points scored. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on BYU/Houston UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe this number will prove to be too high. While the BYU Cougars have been putting up a lot of points, they've also been very stingy defensively. In fact, they're only allowing an average of 11 points per game. None of their opponents have scored more than 20. The Cougars have only played one game. Though they did give up a lot of points, they actually only allowed 211 total yards. Indeed, Tulane scored two early defensive TD's which changed the outcome of the game and made Houston's points allowed look worse. The last meeting between these schools had an O/U line of 62.5 but finished with 57. I believe both defenses are better than they're being given credit for and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MTSU/FIU OVER the total. Both teams are coming in hungry for their first win. Both believe that they can get it and both are going to keep fighting the entire way. Last season's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and saw 67 points scored. The Blue Raiders scored 50 of those. Including that result, since 2014, five of six meetings in the series have finished above the total. Middle Tennessee State QB Asher O'hara has enjoyed success against the Panthers in the past, particularly burning them with his legs. Two years ago, he came in to replace an injured Brett Stockstill. He rushed for 85 yards and a TD. Then, in last season's romp, he rushed for 159 yards and two TDs. He shold be poised for another fairly big game against an FIU team which allowed 36 points and more than 500 yards in its lone game. Note that the Liberty QB did whatever he wanted to them, both through the air and on the ground. Yet, the Panthers are favored for a reason. They scored 34 in their lone game and are coming in hungry to avenge last year's embarrassing loss. Expect both teams to move the ball and score plenty of points in this one, the final combined score finishing above the total for the sixth time in the past seven seasons. 

I'm playing on NC State/UVA UNDER the total. I believe that this number is generously high. True, the Wolfpack have been involved in some shootouts, which has led to this high number. A game against Virginia figures to be different; I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Cavs, who are averaging a healthy 167.5 yards on the ground, to help keep the clock moving. These teams have met five times since 2006, most recently in 2018. Those five games had combined scores of 56, 39, 42, 53 and 21. None of the O/U lines were anywhere close to as high as this one. The Cavs saw last week's game finish with 64 points. However, that was against a powerful Clemson team which put up 41. The Wolfpack saw last week's game finish over the total. However, that was with a much lower O/U line. That one still finished with less than 60 points and would have fallen below this higher number. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on Houston/Tulane UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to last year's game: "The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening..." Tulane ended up rallying for a 38-31 win. That was enough to send that game over the posted total. This year, we're working with a slightly higher O/U number but I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Yes, Tulane has shown an ability to score. The Green Wave have a couple of future NFL players on defense though and figure to be improved on that side of the ball. Likewise for the Cougars. Dana Holgorsen brought in transfers on defense that will make them better on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, having not played a real game yet, the Cougar offense could be a little rusty out of the gate. Look for it to all add up to a much lower-scoring game than we saw last season. 

I'm playing on Tulsa/UCF UNDER the total. The Knights come in determined to get some payback from last season's 34-31 loss. While they'll probably get their revenge, I feel that it'll come in the form of an improved defensive effort. Last season, the Golden Hurricane dropped 34 points on them. I don't expect the Knights to allow that to happen again. Consider that Tulsa has only been able to play one game and that it managed only seven points, while allowing just 16, in that one. As for the Knights, yes, they do indeed have a potent offense. They've scored 49 and 51 in their two games. I believe that Tulsa's defense is somewhat better than the two they have faced though. The Hurricane moved to a 3-3-5 scheme a couple of years ago and are much better defensively since doing so. Last season, they allowed less than 400 yards per game for the first time since 2012. This year's defense didn't return a ton of 'starters' but did return a lot of players with experience. As defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie pointed out: "I don’t know that we're quite as green as what on paper it would look like. We've got a lot of guys who got not just a little bit of playing time, but a great deal of experience on the football field." Look for the Tulsa defense to slow down the Knights just enough to keep the combined final score beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on Iowa State/UL Lafayette UNDER the total. The Cyclones managed only three first half points in last year's opener. I won't be surprised if they're slow to get going again here. The Cajuns were solid defensively last season. On offense, they're going to try and run the ball regularly. Not only will that help to chew up the clock but the Cyclones defensive line and linebackers are more than capable. Last year's opening final score of 29-26 was deceiving as it went to 3-OT periods. I don't think we'll see OT in this one and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on BYU/Navy UNDER the total. BYU is nearly always stingy and with plenty of experience on that side of the ball, that should again be the case. The Cougars return seven starters on that side of the ball and several others who got plenty of playing time. Not always known for its defense, Navy is also expecting to be relatively stout this season. Coach Niumatalolo noted: ''We're counting on our defense to be our strength. As we get our quarterback group going, we're going to rely on our defense a lot. I have total faith in the them.'' The offense, a work in progress, has been hindered by a late start, shorter practices and safety protocols, due to the pandemic. While the Cougars return QB Wilson, he loses his receiving weapons. His tight-end (last year's leading receiver) got hurt and his three top receivers from last year are all gone. Look for points to prove harder to come by than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MTSU/Army OVER the total. These teams were supposed to face other opponents; Army was to face Bucknell while the Blue Raiders were set to square off against Duke. The world and schedule changed though and this game was quickly thrown together. Not ideal for MTSU as it doesn't get as much of a chance to prepare for Army's unique attack as it normally might have. The Knights averaged 37 ppg last season. They're fired up about the season and I expect them to have no trouble scoring against a relatively porous MTSU defense. Its on the other side of the ball where Army figures to have problems. The Army defense lost a couple of bigtime players in LB Cole Christiansen and DB Elijah Riley, both of whom signed as free agents with NFL teams. Its more than that though as the Army defense must also learn an entirely new system. As coach Monken admitted: "New defensive coordinator, new defense staff. That's a challenge for our guys on that side of the ball to learn the system, the terminology, assignments. We're working through it, but there's growing pains.'' They're going to have trouble containing MTSU's Asher O'Hara. Meanwhile, the Raiders also lost a number of important players on the defensive side of the ball and they were bad defensively to begin with. They ranked 113th against the run and 101st against the pass. Expect a high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on South Alabama/Southern Miss UNDER the total. The Jags don't win many road games. In fact, they're 0-12 under Steve Campbell, when playing on the road. So, I'm reluctant to back them. Yet, I do expect them to fight hard and I'm not confident laying the big number with the Eagles, either. Instead, I believe that the value lies with the total. The Golden Eagles still have their star QB (Abraham) but he lost some weapons. Indeed, three of their top four offensive playmakers have moved on. Perhaps more importantly, they're learning new systems with a new offensive (and defensive) coordinator. That's significant given that they got less practice time than normal. They'll very likely win but I don't expect them to put up a huge number in the process. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than expected. 

I'm playing on Clemson/LSU UNDER the total. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for both QBs and both offenses. That said, this is an extremely high O/U number and I also highly respect both defenses. Clemson held a potent Ohio State offense to 23 points to get here. That was a Buckeye team which came into that game averaging 48.7 ppg and 531.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, Clemson was held to 26 points. Prior to that game, Clemson had allowed 17 or fewer points in eight straight games. Over that 8-game span, they allowed a total of only 78, an average of less than 10 per game. LSU did allow some points (28) to Oklahoma but keep in mind that in its previous two games, it held Georgia and A&M to only 10 and 7. Did you know that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that Clemson played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games? (Last year's final game did go OVER with 60 points but the Tigers weren't playing with as much rest.) During that span, the UNDER is also 2-0 when the (Clemson) Tigers played a game with O/U line of 63 or more and 4-0 when they were off four or more consec. ATS wins. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 over the years when LSU was off three straight ATS victories, when favored by seven or more points. There will be plenty of scoring. Just not enough to reach this very big O/U number. 

I'm playing on Southern Miss / Tulane OVER the total. These teams used to face each other on a yearly basis, the annual "Battle For The Bell." That series ended in 2010 with Southern Miiss winning by a 46-30 score in the final game. I expect another high-scoring affair when these old foes reunite on Jan. 4th. Tulane doesn't play much defense. Over their last five games, the Green Wave allowed 37, 34, 29, 26 and 41 points. They did score 20 or more in all five games, however, topping the 30 mark in three of them. All five games saw at least 50 points scored and they averaged 63. On the season, Tulane games averaged 60.7 ppg. While the Golden Eagles did finish the season on an 'under' streak, they also allowed at least 28 in each of their final two games and they scored 37 and 36 in their two previous games before that. Its worth mentioning that the OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the they've been listed as neutral field underdogs. Having gone 0-2 SU/ATS their final two, its also noteworthy that the Golden Eagles have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they'd failed to cover each of their past two games and a 2-0 OVER mark when they were off b2b SU losses. As for the Armed Forces Bowl itself, its been very high-scoring of late. In 2015, this bowl had a score of 35-34. The next season, the score was 55-36. That was followed by a 48-45 game and a 42-35 one after that. Last season's game had a score of 70-14. With both offenses having success, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Boston/Cincy OVER the total. While the Bearcats have indeed been profitable for 'under' bettors, the opposite is true of the Eagles. Even with its last two games staying below the total, Boston College has still seen the OVER go 8-4 on the season. Thats what happens when you have a porous defense though. The Eagles give up 31.7 ppg and a whopping 480.3 yards per game. They're even worse defensively when playing away from home, as they allow 33.7 ppg and 510.2 ypg. When facing some weaker defenses earlier in the season, the Bearcats put up big numbers. They scored 52 against Marshall, 38 against Houston, 46 against ECU and 48 vs. UConn. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing BC. While they have trouble stopping the other team, the Eagles can score. They average 30.9 ppg. Note that the OVER is 2-0 in BC neutral site games the past couple of years. Even though the majority of Cincy games did fall below the total, the OVER was 2-1 when they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Look for those stats to improve as this afternoon's game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin/Oregon UNDER the total. These are two of the top defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 10th with 16.1 points allowed per game. Oregon ranks 8th, allowing just 15.7 ppg. Last time out, the Ducks limited Utah to only 15. In terms of total yards, the Badgers rank 8th, allowing just 293.5 ypg. The Ducks aren't too far behind; they allow 329.6 ypg. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Ducks have seen three of five stay below the total, when playing a game with an O/U line in that range. With the Ducks listed as small underdogs, its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4 the past dozen times that they were getting points. Look for points to prove hard to come by, the UNDER improving to 6-1 the past seven times that Wisonsin was off two or more consecutive ATS wins. 

I'm playing on Wyoming/Georgia State OVER the total. While the Cowboys enter on an 'under' streak, they're facing a defensively-challenged Georgia State team. On the season, the Panthers allow a whopping 36.1 ppg, second worst in the Sun Belt. Indeed, this will be one of the weakest defenses which Wyoming has faced. The Cowboys will have a big day on offense. However, the Panthers can score themselves. They average 32.4 ppg and aren't going to go down quietly. Note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Panthers were of a conference road loss. This season, the OVER was 3-0 when they were off a road loss overall. Expect the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that Wyoming played with two or more week's of rest in between games. 

I'm playing on UVA/Florida UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cavs come in on an 'over' streak, which has helped in terms of line value. They haven't faced a team like this one lately though. In their final three games, the Gators allowed 0, 6 and 17 points, an average of less than eight per game. Those three teams averaged a mere 211 ypg. For the season, the Gators are allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg and 299.6 ypg. The UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Florida scored 37 or more in its previous game. Note that the UNDER is also 2-0 when the Gators played on a neutral field. After getting crushed by Clemson, the Cavs will be focused on avoiding a similar fate. Expect the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that they were off a bye. 

I'm playing on Memphis/PSU OVER the total. While I certainly respect the Nittany Lions' defense, the offense is pretty good too. The Lions averaged 34.3 ppg this season. They know they're going to need to score a lot in this one as the Tigers average 40.5 ppg. When playing away from home, Memphis averages a whopping 43 ppg and 524.3 ypg. The OVER is 5-2 the past seven times that Memphis was an underdog and 4-1 the past five times that the Tigers played with two or more week's rest in between games. Likewise, Penn State has also seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that it played with two or more week's rest in between games. Expect those stats to improve as this afternoon's final combined score proves higher than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on AF/WSU UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, the Cougars are a high-scoring team. The Huskies held them to 13 points in the Apple Cup though and I believe that Air Force will also have some success in slowing them down. The Falcons held Wyoming to six points last time out. They've limited three of their past five opponents to 13 or fewer points and none of those five teams scored more than 22. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of times that Air Force played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. The UNDER is also 3-0 when AF was off b2b double-digit conference wins. The Cougs were underdogs three times this season and two of those games stayed below the number. This one will too. 

I'm playing on UCF/Marshall UNDER in the Gasparilla Bowl. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. Seven of those 11 games finished below the total. Working with  generously high number and with both defenses in fine form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Keep in mind that Marshall games averaged 48.9 points this season. The Herd will try and run and keep the clock moving and to keep the UCF offense on the sidelines as much as possible. It won't be easy though as the Knights are playing stingy defense right now. In fact, the Knights allowed a mere seven points in their last game, their fourth straight 'under.' Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times they were off a home win, 9-4 when that win came by 17 or more. While Marshall allowed 27, it has still allowed an average of only 17 points its past four games. Go with the Under. 

I'm playing on CMU/SDSU OVER the total. The Aztecs were an 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U line for Saturday's game, currently the lowest of the bowls, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While SDSU may have played low-scoring games, the Chippewas saw their games average a healthy 58.7 points on the season. The Chippewas personally scored 45 or more in three of their last four and 38 or more in five of their last seven. (They got at least 20 in all seven.) Over the years, the OVER is 2-0 when the Aztecs have been neutral field favorites of seven or fewer points. Also, the Chippewas have seen the OVER go 2-0 over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line of 42 or less. Looking at recent New Mexico Bowl scores and we find the last four have all produced a minimum of 43 points. They had scores of 52-13, 31-28, 23-20 and 45-37. This one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This O/U number fell when it came out and we're now working with a nice low total. While I'm aware these teams have been involved in low-scoring games of late, I believe that it'll prove to be far too low. Navy scored 56 all by itself last time out. That was the second time in four game that the Midshipmen reached that number. They've scored 35 or more in six of their past seven (averaging 39.3 on the season) and could realistically score enough by themselves to send this one OVER the number. They won't need to though; the Knights have been scoring even more points than them lately. In its last three games, Army has scored 63, 47 and 31, while averaging 575 yards of offense in those games. Last time out, the Knights allowed 52 against Hawaii. All things considered, this number is too low. 

I'm playing on Georgia/LSU UNDER the total. When these teams met last year, the O/U line was 50 and they combined for 52. We're working with a little higher number here, which I feel is providing excellent value. With all due respect to Alabama, this is the best defense that LSU will have seen. Indeed, the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They allow 10.4 ppg (#2 in the country) and 257.1 ypg, #4 in the country. Seven of the Bulldogs' eight SEC games stayed below the number. LSU can also be pretty stingy. Just ask the Aggies. Last week, the Tigers held Texas A&M to seven points and a measly 169 total yards. Speaking of that blowout, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 9-3 when off a double-digit conference win and they've got a 4-1 UNDER mark when off b2b double-digit conf. wins. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon, as points prove hard to come by the entire way. 

I'm playing on Cincy/Memphis OVER the total. These teams just faced each other. The O/U line was 60 and they combined for 58. That was a tough loss for 'over' bettors though, as they already had 37 by halftime. This one should see the scoring continue the entire way. Prior to scoring "only" 34 in last week's game, Memphis had scored 47, 42, 54, 45 and 49 points in its previous five games. The Bearcats scored 46 and 48 in their first two November games. So, they can put up big numbers, too. They know they'll need to here. Memphis conference games are averaging 69.2 ppg on the season. Look for both teams to trade points, the OVER improving to 5-1 when the Tigers were off a home win. 

I'm playing on Oregon/Utah UNDER the total. The days of the Pac-12 featuring wide open high-scoring games are largely gone. Remember the Ducks of a few years back? It seemed like they always getting involved in high-scoring games. Times have changed. The Ducks check in off a 24-10 win. They've held four of their last eight opponents to 10 or fewer points. On the season, they're allowing an average of 15.7 ppg. The Utes? They're even stingier. They allow a mere 11.2 ppg. Thats the third best mark in the country behind Clemson (10.1) and Georgia (10.4). The 241.6 yards allowed per game ranks #3, behind Ohio State and Clemson. They've allowed seven or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 8-3 when the Ducks have been underdogs the past 2+ seasons, a 2-0 UNDER mark when they've been underdogs on a neutral field. With points proving hard to come by, expect those stats to improve Friday night. 

I'm playing on Washington/Washington State UNDER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 50 and produced only 43 points. The previous year, these teams combined for 55 points. That O/U line was also 50. Here, however, we're working with an extra couple of touchdowns, as this is a significantly higher O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Huskies' last two games had scores of 19-7 and 20-14. Of course, the Cougars' last couple of games were much higher-scoring. However, the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off b2b games where they scored 42 or more points and 4-1 when they were off a game where they both scored and allowed 30 or more. With the UNDER also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Huskies had failed to cover three of their previous four, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Mississippi State / Ole Miss OVER the total. Ole Miss gave up 58 points last game, scoring 37. In their previous game, the Rebels scored 45 points. In their last two games against teams that weren't Alabama, the Bulldogs have scored 54 and 45 points. The last meeting between these teams here produced 59 points but the O/U line was in the mid 60s. We're working with a much lower number here, which is providing excellent value. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-1 the past eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. That includes a 2-0 OVER mark when playing on the road with an O/U line in that range. With both teams successfully moving the ball, expect those stats to improve Thursday night. 

I'm playing on SDSU/Hawaii OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 53 but produced 61 points. This year's O/U line is even lower, providing additional value; I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. Games here at Hawaii have been extremely high-scoring, to say the least. On the season, the Warriors average 36.2 ppg (507.7 ypg) here while allowing an average of 36.5 ppg and 473.2 ypg. Thats roughly 73 points and 1000 yards of offense per game. The last three games here have had combined scores of 82, 79 and 82. While the Aztecs did allow just seven points last time out, the OVER is 2-1 the past couple of seasons, when they were off a game where they allowed nine or less. Look for plenty of points from both teams in this one, another shootout in Hawaii. 

I'm playing on Wyoming/CSU OVER the total. Last season's game produced 55 points but I expect an even higher-scoring game here. The Rams average 33 ppg (while allowing 38.6) on the road. The Cowboys average 33 ppg at home. While three of the Ram's last four games did indeed finish below the total, ALL four of those games still produced at least 54. This one will too. Go with the Over. 

I'm playing Toledo/Buffalo UNDER the total. These teams saw last year's game stay below the number by double-digits. The Rockets managed a mere eight first downs for the game. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Bulls lost their last game and that typically results in them playing a lower-scoring game next time out. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a conference loss, 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were off a conference ATS loss. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 22-11, excluding pushes, when the Bulls were off a road loss in MAC play. With Buffalo allowing an average of only 292.8 yards per game, ninth best in the entire country, I expect Toledo to again have trouble moving the ball, the final score again staying below the total. 

I'm playing the OVER in the Bowling Green/Ohio game. The last time these teams met here, they combined for 78 points, Ohio winning 48-30. A similar score tonight won't surprise. The Falcons are not good defensively. Their last three opponents, not named Akron, have scored 38, 49 and 44 points against them. They allow an average of 34.3 ppg in MAC play, to go along with 465.7 yards. Consider that the Bobcats have scored 34 or more points in four of their last five games. While they won't be able to stop Ohio, playing at home, the Falcons should at least be able to score some points. They've scored 20 or more in each of their last three here, 35 in their most recent. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Falcons were off a loss of six or fewer points, 3-0 the last three. Expect offensive fireworks. 

I'm playing on LSU/OLE Miss UNDER the total. With LSU's high-scoring game against Alabama fresh in everyone's memories, we're working with a low O/U number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that the last two meetings both finished above the total but that was because those O/U lines were lower. Both would have stayed beneath this year's higher number. Prior to the Alabama game, LSU had seen its two previous games finish below the number. Obviously, we all saw that LSU has a big time QB. However, a banged-up offensive line should lead to a somewhat more conservative gameplan. As for the Rebels, they've seen the UNDER go 3-0 their last three overall and 4-1 in their home lined games this season. Last game, they allowed just three points. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times they were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Fresno State/SDSU OVER the total. I lost my big total on the Aztecs' "over" last week. However, that won't stop me from making the same play here. The Aztecs allowed 17 points to Nevada, UNLV and San Jose State in their last three. They're going to allow more than than against a Fresno team which scores a lot more than either of those three teams. The Bulldogs have scored 56, 31, 41 and 35 their last four games. In other words, the Aztecs are going to need to score a lot more if they want to keep up. Every single Fresno game has produced a minimum of 47 points. Overall, Bulldog games are averaging 66.7 points on the season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Bulldog conference games. With such a low number, expect those stats to improve Friday night. 

I'm playing on Bowling Green/Miami Ohio OVER the total. When these teams met at Bowling Green last year, the O/U line was 55. They combined for 61. When they met here at Miami, the previous year, the O/U line was 51. They combined for 66. Tonight, thanks to some recent 'unders,' we're working with a lower O/U number. Once again, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Redhawks scored 24 and 23 their last two games. Both were on the road. In their last three home games, they've scored 27, 34 and 48. Thats an average of 36.3 ppg. The Falcons have played at some tough venues, which has led to their road scoring average being very low. However, they scored 35 points last time out. That'll provide confidence and I feel that they'll have more success this evening against a Miami defense which gave up 76 in a game this season. The OVER is 3-0 in Miami Ohio home games, every one of them exceeding tonight's line. Expect those stats to improve. 

I'm playing on Nevada/SDSU OVER the total. With all due respect to the Aztec defense, which has admittedly been pretty stingy, I feel that this O/U number, which is among the lowest on the entire board, will prove to be too low. Note that the line has even come down from its already low opener, providing even further value. When these teams met at Nevada, last season, the O/U line was 46.5. Yet, they combined for 52. When these teams met here at SDSU the previous season, the O/U line was 56.5. Yet, they combined for 65. Note that the weather, as per usual in sunny San Diego, is expected to be pretty much perfect for playing football. (5-day forecast for SD calls for a high of 82 on Saturday, a low of 58, mostly sunny with very little wind.) None of the issues that one can encounter at this time of the year in other parts of the country. While the Aztec defense has been good, it hasn't been unbeatable. The Aztecs have allowed at least 17 in each of their last three games. They've allowed 22 or more in each of their past two home games. Nevada, which averages 19.3 ppg, allowed 31 and 36 its last two road games. Opposing teams are averaging 449.5 yards per game when the Wolfpack play on the road. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the OVER improving to 4-1 the past five times that Nevada was off a double-digit conf. win. 

I'm playing on Ball State / Western Michigan OVER the total. When these teams met last season, they combined for 83 points. While 13 of those did come in OT, they still combined for 70 in regulation. The teams combined for 897 total yards, the Broncos putting up 548 of them. This should be another very high-scoring affair. Western Michigan scored 49 in its last game. Thats the third time already that the Broncos have scored 48 or more in a game. Ball State allowed 34 last time out, after scoring 52 in its previous game. While the OVER is 7-3 the past 10 times that the Cardinals are off a double-digit conference loss, the Broncos have seen the OVER go 5-1 the last six times that they were off a win of 28 or more points. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score again finishing above the number. 

I'm playing on Colorado/UCLA UNDER the total. These teams combined for 50 and 54 points the last two seasons. This evening, we're working with an O/U line in the 60s. I feel that line is generous and that it'll prove to be too high. The Buffaloes have scored just 13 (10 +3) points their last two road games. While the offense has gotten going of late, this is still a UCLA team which has scored 17 or less four different times. As for the high O/U line, note that the UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that Colorado played a game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, a perfect 3-0 to the UNDER when the Buffaloes played a road game with an O/U line in the 63.5 to 70 range. With the UNDER also 5-2 the past seven times that UCLA played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin/OSU UNDER the total. The last time that these teams met, the O/U line was 51 and they combined for 48 points. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. I played against the Badgers last week. So, I was happy to see them lose outright to Illinois. Before that, however, they'd recorded b2b shutouts and four shutouts in six games overall. While they obviously won't blank the Buckeyes, they should do a better job of slowing them down than other teams have been able to. On the other side, Ohio State has now allowed 10 or fewer points in six straigth games. This is indeed a dominant defense. Look for the UNDER to improve to 4-1 last five times that Ohio State was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. 

I'm playing on USC/Colorado OVER the total. The Buffalos are a poor defensive team. They've given up at least 30 points in all seven of their games. So, its likely that the Trojans, who scored 41 last time out, will exceed that mark. When playing at home, Colorado has been able to score. So, while the Trojans will score, the Buffalos will trade points with them. They've scored 34, 23 and 30 in their three games here. The OVER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when Colorado was off a 2-game road trip. Going back further finds the OVER at 8-4 when the Buffalos were off b2b road losses. Bottom line: I expect both teams to have success moving the ball and feel that the number is too low. Go OVER. 

I'm playing on Ohio State / Northwestern UNDER the total. With the Buckeyes having scored 76 themselves in a game this season, this number may initially appear a little low. However, a closer look reveals that its likely not low enough. Note that the UNDER is already 2-0 when the Buckeyes played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. While people immediately think of its offense, Ohio State has now quietly allowed 10 points or less in five straight games. Meanwhile, Northwestern has seen all five of its games produce 44 or fewer combined points. Those games had scores of 17-7, 30-14, 31-10, 24-15 and 13-10. Not surprisingly, four of those five games stayed below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on UCLA/Stanford UNDER the total. These teams have been involved in some very high-scoring games the past couple of seasons. After the 2017 game at Stanford finished with 92 points, last year's game at UCLA produced 91. This is an entirely new season though and I don't expect even half that many tonight. The Cardinal are going to run the ball. A lot. With Cameron Scarlett chewing up the clock, the Cardinal average more than 35 mins of possession time per game, among the most in the nation. They did it with defense last time out, holding Washington to a mere 13 points and less than 300 total yards. Pretty good considering that Washington had previously been averaging 45 ppg on the road along with 477 ypg, on the road. The Bruins have already seen the UNDER go 3-1 as underdogs this season, 2-0 as road underdogs of seven or fewer points. Stanford has seen alll three road games finish above the total but all three at home stay below the number. The three games here finished with scores of 17-7, 21-6 and 23-13. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on South Alamba / Troy OVER the total. Since 2015, this "rivalry" has been known as "The Battle Of The Belt." South Alabama senior Roy Albritton had this to say: "It's probably one of the more 'odd' rivalries in the nation. The away team has always won, and also, no team has kept the belt more than one year. So that’s a big thing we're riding on as well. We know what's ahead of us and we know what we need to do to get it done." As for the total, this is a low number. In fact, Troy could potentially exceed it on its own. The Trojans, who scored 38 at South Alabama last season, have already topped the 40 mark in all three home games. Their most recent game here produced 93 combined points. South Alabama will also contribute though. The Jaguars haven't been blanked this season and you just read about the away team having success in this matchup. The Jags scored 17 each of their last two games and 21, when playing at Nebraska. Look for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the last seven times Troy was off a bye. 

I'm playing on Florida/LSU UNDER the total. The last three meetings have produced 26, 33 and 46 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Gators have seen all six of their games, even a non-lined game, produce 50 or fewer combined points. They've had two outright shutouts and have allowed 21 or less in every game. Last time out, they limited Auburn to 13 points. Auburn had previously been averaging 38 ppg. The (LSU) Tigers also showed they're capable of dominating defensively last time out, as they held Utah State to just six points. Thats pretty good when considering that the Aggies entered that game averaging 38.5 points. Look for this one to again prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Virginia/Miami UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 29 points when they faced each other last season, a 16-13 Virginia win. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening. Including last year's game, the Cavs have seen the UNDER go 5-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they're off a bye. As for the Canes, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-0 when they've been listed as home favorites of seven or less. I think both defenses are better than they showed in their last game. Miami had allowed just 12 points combined its previous two games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Oregon State/UCLA UNDER the total. Its true that the Bruins put up 67 points at Washington State. However, its also true that they've scored 17 or less in all four of their other games. They're likely to exceed 17 against the Beavers but I don't expect them to come anywhere close to the number they put up against the Cougars. Oregon State has allowed 31 or fewer points in three straight games. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 48.5. That was here in 2016. Here, we're working with a considerably higher number. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Bruins played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. Both this season's games here finished below the number. Even the game against Oklahoma, a very high-scoring team, didn't reach this O/U number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, once again. 

I'm playing on Temple/ECU OVER the total. The Pirates have seen the "under" go 5-0 this season. Those results have helped keep this O/U line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. Note that the last two games in this series had O/U lines of 53.5 last season and 58.5, here at ECU two seasons ago. A closer look reveals that three of the Pirates' five "unders" were within a couple of points of the number. They had a game which finished with 57 when the O/U line was 58.5, a game which finished with 52 when the O/U line was 53 and one which finished with 45 when the O/U line was 47. Really, only one of their games finished with less than 40 and only two with less than 45. The Pirates scored a minor upset of ODU in their last game. Thats worth noting as the OVER is 6-2 their last eight off an ATS win and 3-1 their last four, when off a SU win as an underdog. Temple's lone road game finished above the total with 60 points. With that result, the OVER is 8-5 in Owl road games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finding its way above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on Cincy/Marshall OVER the total. The Bearcats have seen their first three games fall below the total, the most recent game (35-13) doing so by just a point. However, I expect that to change Saturday. The Herd gave up 31 points last week, scoring 33 themselves. In its first game, Marshall put up 56 points and more than 600 yards of offense. Note that the Bearcats have seen the OVER go 4-0 off a win by 17 or more points. They've also seen the OVER go 4-0 when off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the OVER is also a perfect 5-0 the last five, when Marshall was off a bye. These teams met in 2017. The O/U line was 53.5 and they combined for 59. While we're working with a considerably lower number here, I look for the final score to again prove higher than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Navy/Memphis OVER the total. When these teams met last season, the O/U line was 67. When they met the previous season, the O/U line was 73. We're working with a much lower number tonight. Yet, a look at the numbers reveals that it could easily be higher. Navy has scored 45 and 42 points, while averaging 499 yards per game. Memphis is averaging 37.3 ppg, on the strength of 490 yards per game. In their last two games, the Tigers have scored 55 and 42 points. Memphis has seen the OVER go 8-1 its last nine Thursday games, 2-0 the past couple of seasons. During that time, Navy also saw both its Thursday games finish above the number. The Tigers have seen the OVER go 10-4 as home favorites the past couple of seasons. That includes a 3-0 OVER mark when listed as a home favorite in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on ND/Georgia OVER the total. While I do respect these defenses, I also feel that the offenses are a little better than many are seeming to believe. The Irish scored 35 points their first game. Then, in their second game, they nearly doubled that, scoring 66. Meanwhile, Georgia has scored 30, 60 and 53. The Irish have seen the OVER go 6-4 their last 10 on the road, 2-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Yes, the Bulldogs are off a shutout last time out. However, the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off a shutout. Yes, that marked the third straight time that Georgia had allowed 17 or fewer points. However, thats a situation (when the Bulldogs had allowed 17 or less in 3 straight) where the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past couple of seasons. Look for those stats to improve Saturday evening, as this one proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on FIU/LA Tech OVER the total. When these teams met in 2016, the O/U line was 64.5. The teams combined for 68. Needless to say, we've got all new players tonight; the O/U line is significantly lower. Once again, however, I expect it to prove to be too low. The FIU offense gained some confidence last week, rushing for over 300 yards and scoring 30 points. The defense gave up 42, at Tulane, in its lone road game. Likewise, the LA Tech offense gained some confidence in putting up 35 last week, throwing for more than 300 yards. Likewise, the defense has also had a game where it allowed more than 40. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball in this one, the OVER improving to 8-4 in FIU's last 12 on the road. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/Liberty OVER the total. After struggling in the opener, the Liberty offense made some strides last week. I expect the Flames to break through with a much better offensive performance this week. They're back home and the Bulls are a team they'll be able to move the ball against. The Liberty offense has been pretty explosive the past couple of seasons under now senior QB Buckshot Calvert. Keep in mind that coach Hugh Freeze had a reputation as an offensive genius. The Liberty defense is far from dominant, however, and Buffalo will also be able to move the ball. Remember, this team gave up 777 yards in a game to UMass last season. Look for the OVER to improve to 7-1 the past eight times that Buffalo was a favorite in the -3.5 to -10 point range. 

I'm playing on Washington State/Houston OVER the total. While the O/U line may look high, it could easily be much higher. Washington State has scored 58 and 59 points so far this season. Houston, meanwhile, has scored 31 and 37 points, also giving up 49 in its lone game against a quality opponent. In fact, even Prairie View scored 17 against Houston. Note that the OVER is 8-5 the past couple of seasons when WSU was off a home win. Expect both Cougar teams to put up a big number, leading to the final combined score finishing above the total. 

I'm playing on Cal/Washington OVER the total. This is an extremely low O/U number. While I do respect both defenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. True, last season's game at Berkeley was low-scoring. However, the previous two meetings produced 138 combined points. While the Huskies have seen more 'unders' than 'overs' overall the past couple of seasons, its the OVER which is 2-0 when they've been listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Also, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past nine times that Washington played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. Expect the Huskies, playing with revenge from last year's game, to put up a relatively big number, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Meanwhile, the Bears Will chip in enough to send the final combined score above the low number. 

I'm playing on Marshall/Boise UNDER the total. Both teams saw their opening game finish above the total which has led to a generously high number Friday night. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Marshall's QB Isaiah Green looked good last week against inferior opposition but he's going to be facing a lot of pressure in this one; Boise recorded four sacks in last week's win over Florida State. Don't expect the Broncos to give Green much time. On the other side, look for a very heavy dose of running back Robert Mahone when the Broncos have the ball. The frequent run plays will help keep the clock moving. The Broncos have seen the UNDER go 10-4 at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 4-1 UNDER mark when listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on ND/Louisville OVER the total. The OVER is 9-4 the past 13 times that the Irish played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range, 4-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. During that span, Louisville has seen the OVER go 9-2 when listed as an underdog, 4-1 when a home underdog. The Cardinals do return a lot of starters on defense. However, thats not as hopeful as it sounds as their defense wasn't very good last year. Indeed, they ranked in the bottom 5 of the country at stopping the run. They'll have serious trouble slowing down an Irish team determined to start the season with a blowout win. While the Irish will put up a healthy number, the Cardinals will also be able to score enough to send the final combined score above the relatively low number.  

I'm playing on Ole Miss/Memphis UNDER the total. These were two of the top offenses in the country last season. Naturally, as a result, we're working with a fairly generous O/U number. However, keep in mind that both these teams, particularly the Rebels, returned considerably more defensive starters than they did offensive ones. While the Tigers have indeed played more overs than unders overall the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when they've been home favorites of this size. In fact, the UNDER is 2-0 the past two seasons when Memphis was a home favorite of a touchdown or less. While the 'over' has been profitable overall for Ole Miss the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when the Rebels have been underdogs, the UNDER cashing seven of 12. Look for the UNDER to improve to 11-3 the past 14 times that Ole Miss played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. 

I'm playing on USF/Wisconsin OVER the total. The Bulls brought back plenty of offensive starters from a team which averaged 28.5 ppg and 438 yards per game. Defense was another matter. The Bulls fell apart in the second half and the collapse was thanks to the porous defense. They're going to have serious problems with stopping the Badger ground attack. The OVER has been money when the Badgers were road favorites in this range and is also 9-2 in Wisconsin's last 11 road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63 points. With both teams moving the ball effectively, expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on Clemson/GT UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Clemson's most recent time on the field. The Tigers scored 44 against an extremely good defense (Alabama) in that one. So, I certainly have respect for their offense. They're pretty talented defensively too though and they're going to be out to - and able to - prove that on Thursday. In this one, the Tigers will eventually build a comfortable lead. At that point, they should be happy to slow things down and help their young defense build some confidence by running the ball and putting it on cruise control. Note that the UNDER is 12-6 in Clemson's conference games the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 9-4 when they were listed as home favorites. The last time that G-Tech visited here, the score was 24-10. That one stayed below the total by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Clemson/Alabama OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the OVER. Prior to last season's 30-point affair, the games the two previous years had produced 85 and 66 combined points, respectively. Yet, despite both teams coming off an 'under' last week and despite last season's 'defensive battle,' this is the highest O/U line of any of the four meetings. There's a good reason for that. While the defenses remain stout, these offenses are both extremely capable of putting up big numbers. The Tigers average 44.3 ppg. The Tide average 47.7. Speaking of the O/U line being the highest of any of the Clemson games; the Tide have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 this season, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect some offensive fireworks. 

I'm playing on Texas/Georgia UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that Georgia was involved in a few high-scoring games to close out the season. However, the opposite was true of Texas. The Longhorns enter this game off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. In fact, all three stayed below the number by double-digits. Even with one of those opponents being Oklahoma, those three games averaged 47 combined points. The UNDER is now 25-13 in all Texas games the past few seasons, 10-4 when the Longhorns were listed as underdogs. Obviously, the Bulldogs are an elite team with a talented offense and QB. They're still primarily a running based attack though, which leads to them running fewer plays per game than the majority of the opponents that Texas is used to facing. (Georgia ranks 101st nationally with 67.9 plays per game.) On the other side, the Longhorns know that they need to get their own ground game going to help churn up the clock and keep the Bulldogs on the sideline. Sure, Georgia will be without star defensive back Deandre Baker. However, this is still the best secondary that Texas will have gone up against. The last two Sugar Bowls produced an average of just 42 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on Missouri and Oklahoma State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The mere mention of these teams has many immediately thinking shootout. I'm not one of them. Sure, we'll see some points but ultimately I believe that the O/U number will prove to be too high. The Missouri defense comes in full of confidence. The Tigers allowed ZERO points in their last game, a 38-0 win. They allowed 28 or fewer points in their final five games, 17 or less in four of those. Overall, they allowed an average of less than 16 ppg in those five. The Cowboys returned seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and were projected to have their best defense since 2013. Of course, when playing against the likes of Oklahoma and WVU, you're going to give up some points. The Cowboys' last game came against TCU; that one produced 'only' 55 combined points. Note that the Cowboys offense, which returned five starters from last year's team, will be without Justice Hill, a very key loss. Mike Gundy tends to get the most from his defense in the bowls. The Cowboys' last five bowl games have produced 72, 52, 68, 46 and 51 combined points. In the last two of those, the Cowboy defense allowed just eight and 21 points. With the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Cowboys were listed as neutral field underdogs, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Houston/Army OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). With Houston's starting QB out for this game, the O/U line dropped considerably. I expect both teams to score plenty of points and feel that the lower O/U line is providing excellent value. To say that these offenses are opposite of each other would be accurate. Army leads the nation in time of possession. Houston is last in the country in that category. That hasn't prevented the Cougars from averaging 46.4 ppg though, fourth best in the country. The Cougars also rank high in numerous other offensive categories. QB Clayton Tune got a game under his belt, throwing for three TDs and has had plenty of time to prepare. On the other side, Army will put up a big number against a porous Houston defense, one which will be missing All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which gave up 36 or more points in five of its final six games, more than 50 in two of its last three. Expect some fireworks. 

I'm playing on Marshall/USF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Marshall hasn't scored more than 30 points since managing 31 back in October. The Herd can play quality defense though, as they held three of their last six opponents to fewer than 14 points. Off a blowout loss against V-Tech in a makeup game, I expect the Herd to show us that quality defense tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they had allowed 37 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-7 when the Herd were off a road loss of 21 or more points. 24-11 when off a loss of 17 or more overall. In other words, off the type of effort they gave vs. V-Tech, the Herd historically bounce back with a much better defensive effort. Facing a USF team which managed only 10 points last time and which has now scored 23 or less in four straight, 17 or less in three of those, will help. The UNDER is 15-4 over the years, when the Bulls find themselves having lost five, or six, of their previous seven. With the UNDER also at 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls were off three or more consec. conference losses, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on UAB/NIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). While I respect both defenses, I believe this number will prove to be too low. As NIU fans know, this bowl has historically been high-scoring. The Huskies also represented the MAC in 2014, the inaugural game of the Boca Raton Bowl. That year, they combined with Marshall, the CUSA champ that year, for 85 points. The 2015 game appeared destined to be low-scoring, as there were only 15 points at halftime. However, things opened up in the second half and the final combined score was 49. In 2016, a whopping 82 points were scored. Last season, 53 points were scored, FAU scoring 50 of those themselves. In other words, in the history of this bowl, they've never scored fewer than 49 points. Of course, thats all 'ancient history.' However, these are also more than capable of exceeding tonight's low number. NIU's last game produced 59 points and that was on the heels of a 49-point game. UAB's last game produced 52 combined points; four of the Blazers last five games produced a minimum of 49 combined points. While UAB had trouble finishing above the higher numbers, the OVER is when the Blazers played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Expect those stats to improve, tonight's final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Army/Navy OVER the total (8* BEST BET). These teams have had a recent history of low-scoring games, a longstanding run of 'unders.' I say that the streak comes to an end this year though. None of the recent games between these teams have had an O/U line this low. In fact, I looked all the way back to 1995 and none of them were this low. Series history notwithstanding, I feel that its too low. Navy's games have finished with 100, 43, 73, 61, 42, 41, 85, 66, 42, 59, 66 and 57 combined points. Notice that ALL TWELVE GAMES produced a minimum of 41 points. As for Army, nine of its 10 games produced at least 42 combined points. One difference between this year's game and other recent games is that Army is now the favorite, instead of Navy. The OVER is 14-6 the last 20 times that the Knights were laying points. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon 

I'm playing on NW/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With all due respect to the NW defense, this line is too low. The Buckeyes scored 62 points against a "stingy" Michigan team last time out. Their previous game, they dropped 52 on Maryland. Both games produced more than 100 combined points. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that OSU was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. 

I'm playing on ND/USC OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). As you know, this is a huge game.Notre Dame, facing its biggest rival, finishes undefeated with a victory. However, as Brian Kelley noted: "Playing there is never easy..." I feel that the O/U line is going to prove to be too low. The Trojans have scored a minimum of 27 points in five of their last six games; they're average 32.4 ppg at home. Notre Dame, meanwhile, averages a whopping 44 ppg and an impressive 513 ypg, when playing on the road. Last year's game produced 63 points. The year before, the last time that ND played here, the teams combined for 72. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-2 the last 10 times the the Irish were laying points on the road. 

I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to just 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the 'under,' the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday. 

I'm playing on Utah State / SJ State to finish UNDER the total (10* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR. As you likely know, the Utah State offense has been extremely potent all season long. Thats led to higher and higher O/U lines. I feel that this one will prove to be too high. Last week, the Aggies saw QB Jordan Love leave with a hit to the head. His status is currently up in the air. I'm going to assume that he'll play. However, with the Aggies favored by greater than four TD's, there's little reason to take any chances. Either way, the Aggies will score points, as per usual. Just not as many as most will be expecting. San Jose State is in the second year of a new defense and is slowly showing signs of improvement. The last two times that they were large underdogs (Wyoming and SDSU) they allowed only 24 and 16 points, despite being +17.5 and +25.5 point underdogs. In their lone game where they were underdogs of a similar size to what they are here (+30.5 underdogs against WSU) they allowed only 31 points, losing 31-0. The only time that they were bigger underdogs than that was at Oregon and that game stayed below the number by double-digits, too. The Spartans, who have scored less than 14 points in three of their last four, figure to have real trouble scoring; Utah State held Hawaii to 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in SJ State road games. I expect those stats to improve Sat. afternoon. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/KSU OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). This is a very low number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Kent State games are averaging 58.5 points this season. The Flashes' last two games saw 63 and 47 points scored. Buffalo games are averaging 58.3 combined ppg, the last one producing a whopping 93. The last meeting here had an O/U line of 42 and finished with 64 combined points. Look for this one to also be higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SDSU / New Mexico UNDER the total. The Lobos got lit up last week. That was on the road against a very high-scoring Utah State team though. This week, determined to improve defensively, they'll face an entirely different type of team; they Aztecs have been winning with defense all season. Through eight games, San Diego State is averaging only 21.1 points. On the road, that number dips to 17.7. The Aztec defense permits only 19.6 ppg. The Aztecs should be able to limit the Lobos, who are averaging just 14.7 ppg and 295 ypg their last three games. Last season's game was 14-0 at halftime. The second half saw some more points but the final was still only 35-10. The Aztecs have been money for 'under' bettors on the road over the years (68-39 Under mark L107) and they've seen two of three road games fall below the number this season. More of the same Saturday night. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona to finish OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). While these teams have both been profitable for 'under' bettors, it hasn't been due to an ability to move the ball or to score points. The Buffaloes average 32 ppg and 439.6 ypg. The Wildcats average a nearly identical number of yards (441.7 ypg) while averaging 29.6 ppg. At home, that number climbs to 34.6 ppg. Colorado scored 34 last week, while allowing 41. That was the fourth straight game that the Buffaloes allowed more than 20 points. Arizona has scored 30 and 44 its last two games. Last season, these teams combined for 87 points. The season before that they combined for 73. Both games finished above the total by double-digits. 

I'm playing on Toledo/Ball State to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U VIOLATOR). Its true that I won with the 'over' a couple of Toledo games this season, including last week at WMU. However, that was against a Bronco team which could trade punches with them. Tonight, the Rockets face a Cardinal team which averages only 16 ppg pn the road. Not surprisingly, three of Ball State's four road games have fallen below the total. With their opponent unable to score many points, the Rockets won't need to score as many themselves. Their last home game (vs. Buffalo two weeks ago) stayed below the number by double-digits and so did their last game here vs. Ball State. The Rockets were laying -20 for that one, a game with an O/U line of 68. The final score was 37-19. I'm expecting a similar result here. 

I'm playing on Texas A&M / Mississippi State OVER the total (10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen their recent games finish below the total. Those recent results have worked in our favor by providing us with an extremely low O/U line to work with, among the lowest on the Saturday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While you wouldn't know it by the O/U line, the Aggies can move the ball and score points. They average 32.3 ppg and 486.7 ypg. They've faced the likes of Kentucky (12.9 ppg allowed) Clemson (13.4 ppg allowed) and Alabama (15.9 ppg allowed) yet have still scored a minimum of 20 points in every game. While the Bulldog offense has struggled of late, take a look at their last four opponents, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and Florida. All four of those teams rank in top 15 in the country in terms of points allowed. All of them allow fewer than 17 ppg. While still respectable, the Aggie defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs' previous four opponents. In two road games, A&M is allowing an average of 34 ppg. Prior to facing those four Top 15 defenses, the Bulldogs had scored 63, 31, and 56 points. They're still averaging 37 ppg and 461 ypg through four home games. Last season's game had an O/U line of 54. The previous season, the O/U line was 60.5. Those games finished with 49 and 63 points, respectively. The Aggies have only been underdogs twice this season and both games finished above the total. More of the same Saturday. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin/NW to finish UNDER the total (8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL). The Badgers' last visit here resulted in a 21-7 victory, a game which fell below the total by double-digits. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Wildcats were 20 point favorites last week yet managed a mere 18 points. It was the third time in their last six games that they'd scored 18 or less. The Cats rank 12th in the Big Ten in scoring, last in yards per carry and 11th in passing efficiency. Its no secret that the Badgers are going to run the ball. While stopping them won't be easy, the Cats have had success in slowing down their running attack in recent seasons. Including the game here in 2016, the UNDER is 13-4 in NW home games the past 2+ seasons. The UNDER is also 5-1 the last six times that the Badgers were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing Toledo/Western Michigan OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Some of you may recall that I won with the 'over' when the Rockets faced Fresno a few weeks ago. At the time, among other things, I mentioned that Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. That game ended up flying over the number, producing 76 combined points. The Rockets' next game (Bowling Green) did too, finishing with 78. Since then, however, they've seen two straight games fall below the number. Those results, combined with the fact that the Broncos are off an 'under' of their own, have kept this number lower than it easily could have been. Realistically, the number could have easily opened in the 70s, in my opinion. The Rockets defense is poor and when matched up against a capable opponent, they get lit up. They've been underdogs twice this season. Both times they gave up 49 points, while also scoring 24 or more. Both finished above the total by double-digits. In three home games, the Broncos are averaging 45.7 ppg and 511 ypg. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing this defense. Averaging more than 39 ppg themselves, however, the Rockets have the ability to trade punches. Toledo's last visit here had an O/U line of 72 and finished with 90 points, a 55-35 final. Expect another shootout. 

I'm playing Nevada/Hawaii UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). We're working with a very high O/U number here and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Nevada's last three games produced 58, 24 and 53 combined points. Allowing 31 last week wasn't as bad as it sounds, considering the opponent was Boise State and the Broncos were averaging more than 37 ppg coming in. Hawaii's last home game produced just 30 points. The Warriors' previous home game finished with 63. The last five meetings between these teams have ALL finished below the total, none of those games having a number nearly as high as this one. Those games finished with 56, 55, 50, 44 and 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Colorado State / Boise State to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Last season's game between these teams was extremely high-scoring. That was at Colorado State, however, where the Rams were able to score. That figures to be far more difficult on the road, this season. Colorado State has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of seven games. Boise State has allowed 20 or less in four of six. The UNDER is 4-0 when the Rams were underdogs. The 2016 meeting here at Boise stayed below the total with 51 points, only 10 by halfitme. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 in Boise's October games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for more of the same Friday. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen three of their past four finish above the total. Those results have helped in providing us with a relatively generous O/U line, one which I feel will prove to be too high. A look at last season's meeting, at Wisconsin, reveals that the O/U line was just 41. The most recent meeting here at Michigan was the previous season, a game which had an O/U line of 44. You may recall that each of the games finished well below the number, the home team dominating defensively in both. Last season's game was tied 7-7 at halftime and finished with a final score of 24-10. The 2016 game here at Michigan had a score of 7-0 at the break and finished at 14-7. The Badgers managed a mere eight first downs in that game, on only 159 total yards of total offense. Wisconsin did a great job of keeping Michigan to 14 too, considering that the Wolverines entered that game averaging 52 ppg. (The Wolverines would score 78 the next game, too.) While all that may be ancient history, this season's Michigan defense is every bit as talented as the 2016 one, arguably more so. Consider that the 2016 Michigan D returned six starters while this season's defense returned nine and 14 of its top 16 tacklers. A big nationally televised game gives this Michigan defense a chance to show the nation how good it really is. The Badgers have played a few pretty soft defenses and still haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. They've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs and I expect points to be at a premium, once again. 

I'm playing on Nebraska/Northwestern OVER the total (8* BC TOTAL). The Huskers are banged up on defense, one of the reasons they're allowing a whopping 39.2 ppg and 447 ypg. In two road games, the Huskers are allowing 48.5 ppg and 512 ypg. Not surprisingly, both games finished above the number. They've now allowed 56, 41 and 42 the past three games. The Nebraska offense has been better than the defense; last time out, the Huskers had more than 500 total yards at Wisconsin, though managing just 24 points. The previous game they scored 28 against Purdue. They've been underdogs for each of their last three games, all of which finished above the total. In fact, the OVER is 13-2 the past 15 times that Nebraska was an underdog. With the OVER also 8-2 the last 10 times that the Huskers were off a conference loss, expect some fireworks on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Utah to finish OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). The Wildcats have been kind to 'under' bettors thus far and those early results have helped to provide us with a particularly low O/U number, the lowest Arizona has seen yet. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 562.5 yards of offense on the road, thus far. So, its not like they haven't been moving the ball. The Utes scored 40, at Stanford, last time out. At home, they're averaging 434.5 yards of offense. The Utah defense has allowed 21 or more points in three straight. Last season's meeting produced 54 points and the previous season's produced 59. Expect this one to finish above the low number.

I'm playing on Texas Tech / TCU to finish UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Red Raiders have long been an offensive juggernaut while the Horned Frogs are typically known more for their defense. Playing at home, I expect the Frogs to more effectively dictate the tempo. As per usual, TCU is very stingy. The Frogs held Iowa to 14 points last time out, marking the third time through their first five games that they've allowed 14 or less. Indeed, the Raiders have been involved in some shootouts already. So, it may sound funny to suggest that they have an improved defense this season. That said, I believe that to, in fact, be the case. The Raiders' high-scoring games have come against the likes of WVU, OSU, Houston and Ole Miss. All four of those teams are in the top 22 in the country in scoring, ranking 3, 13, 16 and 22nd. Each scores considerably more than TCU. While they all score more, none of those teams are nearly as good defensively as TCU. In other words, the Raiders' early high-scoring results can partly be taken with a grain of salt. Keep in mind that this Tech team returned 10 defensive starters and were expected to have their best defensive unit in years. Last season's meeting stayed WELL below the total, as did the 2016 meeting; each game stayed below the number by 3+ TDs. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 11-1 the last 12 times that TCU was off a conference win.

I'm playing on Fresno State / Nevada UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Its true that I won with the 'over' in last week's Fresno/Toledo game. However, Nevada is a different style of opponent and that high-scoring result has helped in providing us with a generously high O/U line. The Bulldogs, who have held all four opponents to 27 or fewer points are allowing an average of only 17.5 ppg and 288.5 ppg through their first two road games. Those were opponents from the Pac 12 and Big 10, too. Note that Fresno State has seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the past six times that it was off back-to-back SU victories. Nevada is off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Air Force to just 250 total yards. Nevada QB Ganji is banged-up (leg) and questionable. Assuming he goes, note that he was intercepted three times by Fresno last season. The Bulldogs' last visit here was in Oct. of 2016. The O/U line was 54 and the teams combined for 49. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Toledo/Fresno State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). These teams combined for 69 points the last time that they met and I won't be surprised if they exceed that on Saturday night. These teams are both likely to put up a big number. Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. The Rockets scored 66 in their opener and 63 last week against Nevada. Only Miami kept them below 60 (49-24) and that game still produced 73 combined points. Overall, Toledo games are averaging 83 points. Fresno, meanwhile, also has an excellent group of wide receivers, arguably the best in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs scored 79 points in their lone home game. In games which had an O/U number, the Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 40-20 in September over the years. Expect those stats to improve here.

I'm playing on Miami/UNC to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U MAIN EVENT). Recent games between these two teams have been low-scoring in nature. I expect that to be the case again Thursday. Last season's game produced 43 points, a 24-19 road victory for Miami. The previous season, the teams combined for only 33 points, a 20-13 road upset by the Tar Heels. This season, the Tar Heels brought back eight defensive starters, compared to just five on the offensive side. They managed only 17 and 19 points in their previous two road games and they'll be facing an even better defense here. The "under" has been money for both teams over the years when playing Thursday night games. The UNDER is also 11-3 the last 14 times that the Canes played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. Expect UNC to have trouble moving the ball and finding the end zone, the final combined score again finishing below the number. 

I'm playing Stanford/Oregon OVER the total. The Ducks had trouble scoring at Stanford in last season's meeting. That game had 35 points at halftime but finished with only 56. However, in the most recent meeting here at Oregon, both teams were able to put up points. In fact, that game had an O/U line in the high 50s but finished with 79 combined points. I expect both teams to put up a fairly big number again Saturday evening. The Ducks have scored 58, 62 and 35 points, an average of 51.7 ppg (503 ypg). The Cardinal, meanwhile, have scored 30 or more in two of their three games. Including the 79-point affair here in 2016, the OVER is 11-5 the Ducks' last 16 home games. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. 

I'm playing on BC/WF UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Eagles are off back-to-back high-scoring games to start the season. Wake Forest is the best defense that they will have seen though and I expect a much lower-scoring contest. Last year's game produced 44 combined points. The previous season, in the most recent meeting here at Wake Forest, the teams combined for only 31 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that the Deacons were a host in the series. Also, including the 17-14 result the last meeting here, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 65-37 their last 100+ on the road. The UNDER is also 4-0 the last couple of seasons, when the Eagles were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect more of the same Thursday. 

I'm playing on Air Force / FAU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too higher. While the opponent was obviously pretty weak, the Falcons are off a shutout win in their opener. They held Stony Brook to a mere 30 yards rushing and only 45 yards passing. The Seawolves would finish with just four first downs. Needless to say, it was among the best defensive performances ever by the Falcons and should give them plenty of confidence entering Saturday's game. FAU didn't fare so well defensively, getting lit up by Oklahoma. However, that effort notwithstanding, this IS a very experienced defense and we can expect a MUCH better performance this week. The UNDER is 8-6 in FAU home games the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on V-Tech/FSU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that both these teams are hoping and expecting to have improved offenses this season. However, that improvement isn't likely to be immediate and there's always plenty of athleticism and talent on the defensive side from both these teams. The Noles allowed just 15 ppg (280 ypg) their final three last season and 20.3 ppg at home on the season. The Hokies, meanwhile, allowed a mere 14.8 ppg on the season, 14.7 their final three. The UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Hokies were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, six of their 10 road games finishing below the total. As for the Noles, the UNDER is 10-5-1 their last 16 conference games. Overall, VT games averaged 43 points last season while FSU games averaged 49. All things considered, this number, which has climbed from its opener, is generously high. 

I'm playing on Michigan/ND UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While this should be an entertaining game, I don't expect there to be a whole lot of scoring. The Wolverines are loaded on defense and should be among the best in the nation on that side of the ball. They allowed 18.8 ppg and 281 ypg last year and this year's unit is far more experienced, bringing back 14 of their top 16 tacklers. Likewise, this should be the best Notre Dame defense that we've seen in several years, the Irish bringing back nine defensive starters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-2 the past couple of seasons when the line ranged from -3 to +3. Look for points to be at a premium.

I'm playing on Utah State / Michigan State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I believe this number will prove to be too low. This is the best offense that Matt Wells has had in his six years here at Utah State, as they are loaded with experience on that side of the ball. Keep in mind that the Aggies averaged better than 30 ppg (30.3) on the road last season. The problem was that they allowed even more than that. Not surprisingly, eight of their past 12 road games have finished above the number. While the Spartans offense wasn't exactly intimidating last season, this is a great opportunity for them to start the season by padding their offensive stats. Expect the final combined score to finish above the low number. 

I'm playing on New Mexico State / Minnesota to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Admittedly, the Aggies offense didn't look too impressive against Wyoming. However, having a game under their belts will help and I expect them to move the ball more effectively. Stopping the Gophers, who are favored by more than 3 TDs for good reason, is an entirely different matter. The Aggies have seen the OVER go 10-4 on the road the past couple of seasons, as they rarely stop anyone, when playing away from home. Indeed, they allowed an average of 478.2 ypg on the road last season, well over six yards per play. Expect Minnesota to put up a big number and for New Mexico State to supply the rest, as this one finishes above the low number!

I'm playing on Alabama/Georgia to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). You probably watched Georgia trade punches with Oklahoma on New Year's Day. The teams combined for a whopping 102 points. I don't expect to see even half that many on Monday. The Tide were absolutely dominant defensively against Clemson. In the two previous meetings, the Tigers had moved the ball with ease. Not against this year's team. In addition to having a dominant defense which is peaking at the right time, the Tide are a little more conservative on offense than they've been in the past. Georgia's defense, which ultimated stopped the Sooners when it needed to, held its previous three opponents to just 7, 7 and 13 points. In fact, the Bulldogs allowed 14 or fewer points 10 times this season. Look for points to at a premium. 

 I'm playing on Alabama and Clemson to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm switching things up and going with the 'under.'

One of the biggest differences from last season is that Alabama now employs a more conservative offense. 

Both teams have outstanding defenses. The Tide allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were very nearly as good. The Tigers allowed just 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg. 

Given those impressive defensive stats, its not surprising that both teams have seen the majority of their games fall below the number. The Tide have seen the UNDER go 7-5 on the season, 3-1 against non-conf. opponents. The UNDER was even more profitable for the Tigers. Nine of Clemson's 13 games stayed beneath the total. That includes a 5-1 UNDER record when they were matched up against a team with a winning record.

While we have to go back a number of years, Clemson has seen the UNDER go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that it played a neutral site game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. That includes their last game, where the Tigers' defense dominated Miami and allowed just three points. Expect those stats to improve on New Year's Day.

I'm playing on NC State and Arizona State to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Both these teams were profitable for 'under' bettors this season, particularly NC State. The Wolfpack saw their final three games (and seven of their last eight) dip below the total. Both teams are going to run the ball with regularity, helping to keep the clock moving. Both teams saw this season's lone game, when playing with extra time to prepare, fall below the total. In Arizona State's case that was a 13-7 win over Washington, its best defensive effort of the season. Not bad considering that the Huskies scored 30 or more in 10 of their other 11 games, more than 20 in all of them. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Temple/FIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). This week's first bowl games have both had very high O/U numbers and both games have stayed below the total. This evening, we get a considerably lower O/U number to work. However, this may well prove to be the highest scoring of the bunch. The Owls played some lower-scoring games at the beginning of the season. However, they closed things out by seeing their final five games all finish above the number. All five produced a minimum of 59 combined points. Not to be outdone, the Panthers closed out their season by combining with UMass for 108 points. That marked their fourth straight game which finished above the total, all producing a minimum of 58 points. All things considered, this number could easily be higher. Expect offensive fireworks. 

I'm playing on FAU/Akron to finish UNDER the total (8*). Admittedly, the Owls have a pretty potent offense. That said, I still feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too high. The Zips play a "bend but not break" style of defense. They'll be doing all they can to help to slow down the up-tempo Owls. On offense, Akron struggles to score points. They averaged just 18.3 ppg on the road, managing a mere 300.6 ypg of offense. Overall, while FAU home games did average 64.7 ppg, Akron road games averaged only 50.7 points. The Owls defense got stingier down the stretch. Their last two games both stayed below the total, as they limited Charlotte to 12 points and UNT to 17. Akron has seen the UNDER go 17-7 its last 24 in the underdog role and 7-2 the last nine times it was off a conference loss. I expect those stats to improve Tuesday, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting.