Rating: 2 Units

The Ragin' Cajuns won both regular season meetings in January by five and three points. Both of those games stayed under their respective totals, and that's the direction we're going to look in this one. This is a neutral site game, but the road has not been kind to Louisiana's offense this season. The under is 6-2 in the Ragin' Cajuns last eight road games. Louisiana has scored an average of 66.3 points per game. In the 14-team Sun Belt, Louisiana is No. 12 in offensive efficiency, last in offensive rebounding, No. 11 in three-point shooting, No. 13 in two-point shooting and No. 13 in assist rate. Monroe is last in offensive efficiency, No. 13 in effective field goal shooting, No. 11 in offensive rebounding and last in two-point shooting.

Rating: 2 Units

Northern Kentucky's biggest issue this season has been defending the three-point line. Opponents are shooting 37.4-percent from three-point range against the Norse, which is nearly four percent above the national average. Well, Detroit does not shoot three-pointers. The Titans are bottom-10 in the country in three-point shot attempts. Detroit shot 42.6-percent from the floor in the first meeting and 43.4-percent from the floor in the second meeting. They did not eclipse 1.00 point per possession in either contest. Detroit's offense is last in the Horizon League in efficiency, effective field goal shooting, three-point shooting, two-point shooting and assist rate. We're not sure where the support for the over is coming from, but it's certainly not from us.

Rating: 2 Units

The 13 games that were played here last year saw an average of 149.7 points per game. Coastal won the lone regular season meeting 87-78 at Southern Miss on February 20. Chanticleers' guard Jordan Battle finished that contest with 29 points. That game featured 76 free throw attempts, although neither team was particularly good at making them (combined to shoot 61.8-percent). We're probably not going to see that many free throw attempts again, but we will look toward another high-scoring game. Southern Miss plays at a top-20 pace in the country. The Eagles' defense has allowed an average of 81.7 points per game across their last seven contests. The over is 5-2 in those seven games. The over is 10-5 in Coastal's last 15 games. Neither team is heavily-reliant on three-point attempts, so the unfamiliar shooting backdrop should not be too big of an issue since neither team likes to fire from beyond the arc.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the Bears' third-straight game playing at Lipscomb's gym so they should have a decent feel for the shooting backdrop by now. In a conference tournament game like this, we like to look for points. With a 20-point spread, there is a good chance that the benches will get emptied in the final minutes. This may be the last chance for bench players on both sides to see the court. If the benches empty in the final minutes, those kids are going to play with purpose. You're not going to see someone dribble the shot clock out for 25 seconds at mid-court. You're going to get 40 minutes of effort on the offensive end as everyone tries to find the box score one last time this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder have had an extra day to rest and prep for this one, but Oklahoma City is now on the front leg of a back-to-back. The Thunder host Houston on Monday, and that has us looking toward the under in this contest. Oklahoma City's last five games have all gone over the total, but we believe that is giving us some value on the under in this spot. The first two games between these teams have seen 198 and 214 points. The Thunder are by-far the league's best team on defense. After playing at a top-3 pace last season, the Spurs are outside the top-10 in tempo this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Illinois is playing at the fastest pace in the Big Ten. The Illini are still working to address their three-point shooting woes (last in the Big Ten), but the best way to overcome that is with volume. The over has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these teams. Illinois has cleared the 90-point mark in three of those four games. If the Wolverines are showing some signs of tired legs, Illinois' best path to success is to run as much as possible.

Rating: 2 Units

Mark Pope has introduced a fun offense in Lexington in his first season, but the Wildcats' defense has a long way to go. In the 16-team SEC, Kentucky's defense is No. 14 in efficiency, No. 13 in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 15 in turnover rate and last in two-point shooting allowed. Conference opponents are shooting 57.4-percent from two-point range against Kentucky's defense, which is 6.4-percent above the national average. This will be Kentucky's sixth game against a top-10 offense this season. The previous five scored an average of 91.8 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams met three times last year. Those three games saw an average of 60 points in the first half. Kent State started that first meeting 3-for-14 from the floor, as there are plenty of nerves involved in a rivalry like this. In MAC play, Kent State's defense is No. 1 in efficiency, No. 2 in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 1 in turnover rate, No. 2 in two-point shooting allowed and No. 1 in steals. This will be by-far the highest total Kent State has seen this season. The Flashes played at Alabama two months ago and that total closed at 153. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country. Should this game against Akron be lined four points higher than that? We have our doubts.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re going to look at the total going “under” the high number tonight with the Bucks the going 16-8 to the “under” when off a loss which is best in the NBA under that scenario. Sure, Denver is the third best “over” team in the NBA this season but they’ve gone “under” in back-to-back games with both teams ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating across their last 10 games respectively. Look for both defenses to come out and play with the two head-to-head matchups last season averaging just 213.5 ppg between the Nuggets and Bucks.

Rating: 2 Units

Jalen Suggs will miss tonight’s action and the Magic are 9-16 straight up without him while averaging just 101 ppg compared to 20-15 straight up with him averaging 106 ppg this season. Instead we’re going to recommend a play on the “under” with the Magic going 8-1 to the “under” when listed as a home underdog and are 10-2 to the “under” across their last 12 games. Sure, tonight’s total is listed low but it’s for a reason with both the Warriors and Magic ranking top ten in defensive efficiency this season and top five in defensive rating across their last five games respectively. The Magic run at a bottom five pace and will likely dictate that tonight being the home team so take the “under” in what should be a low scoring, defensive battle in Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta had covered the spread in seven-straight games before blowing a 19-point lead to Orlando. Early money has shown on the under in this contest, and we agree with it. The under has cashed in four of the Hawks' last five games. When these teams met in Detroit before the All-Star break, they combined to go 67-for-77 (87-percent) from the free throw line. Detroit is bottom-5 in the league in free throw attempts per game. The Pistons nearly doubled their average number of free throw attempts in that game (38 vs 20). If that happens again, we'll pay to see it.

Rating: 2 Units

Drake has been favored in 16 of its last 17 games. You can dictate the pace as a 14-point favorite over Valparaiso, a 12-point favorite over Indiana State and a 10-point favorite over Illinois-Chicago. As of Sunday morning, Northern Iowa is sitting as a 1.5-point home favorite in this matchup. Drake was able to dictate the pace in the first matchup by jumping out to a nine-point lead in the first 11 minutes. We don't expect that to be the case on Sunday. Since that loss to Drake, Northern Iowa has gone 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread and has scored an average of 76.8 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio State is looking to wash the bad taste out of their collective mouths after an 86-83 loss at home against rival Michigan last Sunday. The Buckeyes have alternated losses and wins in each of the past 6 games since January 20. As far as the total is concerned, the Buckeyes know a thing about Over results lately, too. The total has cashed high in 3 in a row, while going 6-3 across the previous 9 outings. In this series between Northwestern and Ohio State, the Over is 4-2 in the previous 6 meetings since December 26, 2020, and it is 2-1 in the past 3 meetings in Columbus. Expect another high-scoring shootout between these teams once again.

Rating: 2 Units

Boise State's defense has found another gear in recent weeks, and the Broncos should be fueled by the home crowd at ExtraMile Arena. Boise State has held its last five home opponents to an average of 56.4 points per game. None of those five teams scored more than 60 points against the Broncos. Boise State and New Mexico are No. 1 and No. 2 in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding rate, which means we're unlikely to see many second-chance opportunities in this contest. In their first meeting, there was a total of ten offensive rebounds (compared to 48 defensive boards). The under is 8-3 in New Mexico's last 11 games. The under has cashed in each of Boise's last five games.

Rating: 2 Units

Since that loss to the Red Raiders, TCU has won four of its last five games. While we are tempted to grab the points with TCU as a home 'dog, we're a little more interested in the under. In the 16-team Big XII, TCU's offense is No. 14 in efficiency, last in effective field goal shooting, last in three-point shooting, No. 14 in two-point shooting, No. 15 in free throw shooting and No. 15 in assist rate. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, TCU has scored an average of 63.6 points per game. The Horned Frogs' formula was working for the first 25 minutes against Texas Tech in their first meeting, but they just couldn't make a shot down the stretch. The under is 10-3 in TCU's last 13 games. The under is 8-1-1 in TCU's last ten home games.

Rating: 2 Units

This total is a little too high. The Arizona offense hasn’t been as great as of late and they aren’t going to get it going here. Baylor scored 74 points against West Virginia in the last game, but that took overtime to achieve that number, and that will end up being the difference here. Look for Baylor and Arizona to find some offensive success, but they aren’t going to run up the score, and that will be the difference here. Back the under to cash here.

Rating: 2 Units

In Saturday's loss to BYU, K-State went 6-for-21 from beyond the arc. Utah's defense will allow you to take three-point opportunities while shutting down the paint. The Utes held Kansas to 41.9-percent shooting from two-point range on Saturday. Utah's defense is allowing opponents to shoot 46.1-percent from two-point range this season, which is nearly five percent below the national average. If you can't make three-pointers, then Utah has no need to abandon its stronghold in the post. Neither team is good from the free throw line. Both teams are outside the top-300 in free throw shooting this year, including Utah who is bottom-5 in the country at 61.9-percent. The under is 14-4 in Utah's last 18 games. The under has cashed in each of Utah's last six home games.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA comes into this matchup after winning eight of their last nine games, but they are coming off of a loss and will be on the road for this game. The Bruins lost a tight game on the road against Illinois last time out, but they are still 2-1 in their last three road games. UCLA is shooting 46.9% from the field this year and they have allowed 61 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Indiana finally snapped their losing streak with a great win against Michigan State in their last game and they will try to make it two in a row here. The Hoosiers have had a ton of close losses this year, so they could very easily have a much better record. Indiana is shooting 46.4% from the field this season, but they are allowing 73.2 points per game on defense. This should be a very entertaining game, but I think points are going to be at a premium, so I like the under here. 

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against Wright State, and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings. Over is 7-3 in their 10 meetings and in their most recent meeting earlier this season, Milwaukee won 95-79 at home, covering the spread, as the game went over the point total. In this Wright State Raiders vs Milwaukee Panthers Prediction, Milwaukee is coming as a -5.5 home favorites. Milwaukee is rightfully favored, as they have a superior record this season, and have been superb at home, while Wright State is terrible on the road. Neither team is in good form lately, but both have been involved in some higher-scoring affairs lately, as they are 9-5 to the over in their last 14 games combined, and their previous meeting this season also went over the point total. Expect another high-scoring game and take the over.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the under in this game. These are two teams that have solid offenses and two that have been in high-scoring games as of late, but these are also two pretty solid matchups for these respective defenses, and the first meeting between these two teams finished 61-59. I do not think this game finishes that low, but I’ll roll with the under in this game as I think it’s a first-to-70-wins kind of affair.

Rating: 2 Units

In their only previous meeting back in 2012, Ohio State won 77-66 at home, covering the spread. In this Washington Huskies vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Ohio State is coming as a -10.5 home favorites. Ohio State is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been very good at home, while Washington is terrible on the road. Both teams are in very good form, as the Buckeyes are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 games and the Huskies 4-1 against the spread in their last 5. Both teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games recently, as they are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games combined, as both teams are below the national average defensively this season. I expect another high-scoring affair, so take the over.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams met in Waco last year with Houston earning an 82-76 road win in overtime. Baylor was +8 in rebounding in that matchup, shot 40-percent from three-point range and went 18-for-22 from the free throw line...and still lost. We're interested in the over in this contest. When these teams met last season, the closing total was 135 and they cleared that mark before the game went to overtime. Baylor is now missing its best interior defender and rebounder, and the total for Monday's game is lower than what we saw last year? We don't necessarily agree with that. Four of Houston's last five games have gone over the total. Three of Baylor's last four games have gone over the total.

Rating: 2 Units

Injuries have begun to mount once again as the Raptors have lost three-straight. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl have both been ruled out of this one. Both missed Saturday's 12-point loss at Oklahoma City. Toronto's best chance for success in this matchup is probably to run as much as possible. Even though Houston is at home, the Raptors have the travel and rest advantage. Toronto's last four games have all gone over the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total. During this current six-game losing streak, the Rockets have given up an average of 116 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels get an offensive rebound on 40.9-percent of their missed shots, which is nearly 11-percent above the national average. But the point remains: The reason they get so many second-chance opportunities is because they miss so many shots to begin with. In Thursday's loss to the Dons, Saint Mary's shot 3-for-23 from three-point range. The Gaels are outside the top-165 in three-point shooting, two-point shooting and free throw shooting. Both teams are bottom-30 in the country in adjusted tempo. Oregon State's rotation features several players that are at least 6-foot-9 to limit the Gaels' second-chance points. The Beavers are a very good defensive rebounding team. The under is 5-1 in Saint Mary's last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are 7-2-1 to the “over” across their last ten games with the Grizzlies 10-3 to the “over” across their last 13 with Memphis also sitting 7-4 to the “over” with a rest advantage which they’ll have tonight. Sure, the total only landed at 236 in their first head-to-head meeting but the Grizzlies were playing without Ja Morant as the team coughed the ball up 21 times which we don’t see happening tonight. Memphis still runs at the fastest pace in the league with OKC sitting 12th in pace so look for a high scoring showdown in Memphis between the Thunder and Grizzlies tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing at home, you have to assume that Cincinnati's role players will find a little more success on offense in this one. We're not sure, however, that Cincinnati will have the proper answers on defense. BYU is top-20 in the country in offensive efficiency, effective field goal shooting, two-point shooting and assist rate. The Cougars are shooting 37.2-percent from three-point range in conference play while shooting the highest volume of attempts from beyond the arc. BYU's last seven games have seen an average of 154 points per game, and that includes the 52-point performance by Cincinnati two weeks ago. It would take another dreadful shooting performance to keep this one under the total.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re going to look towards an “under” result with LA sitting as the top rated defensive team across their past 10 games and the Pacers sitting ninth during that stretch. Indiana has gone “under” or pushed in their last three games and although LA has gone “over” in four of their last five games, James has averaged 31 ppg during that span and will have to do their best to replace his offensive production in the lineup today. As a road favorite, the Pacers are 8-4 to the “under” with the Lakers going 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog. Look for points to come at a premium in today’s non-conference bout between the Pacers and Lakers as both teams look to overcome crucial injuries in their respective starting lineups.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trojans are outside the top-300 in three-point attempts, and we like that formula on the road in the Big Ten. Made three-pointers only account for 26.4-percent of USC's points this season, which is also outside the top-300. That formula has been working. When you run your offense through the interior and you don't rely on outside shooting, the hostile road environments in the Big Ten are a little less hostile. USC has scored an average of 77.8 points in five conference road games, while picking up wins at Washington, Illinois and Nebraska. The over is 8-1 in USC's last nine games. The over has cashed in each of Purdue's last four games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are averaging just 106 ppg across their last five and both teams sitting top six in defensive efficiency on the season. Both also rank top eight in fewest fast break points allowed on the season with Minnesota running at a bottom five pace on the season as well. Randle and Donte DiVincenzo who will also miss this game scored 49 of the team’s 113 total points in their last head-to-head matchup with Fred VanVleet scoring 18 on Houston’s side who will miss tonight as well. Look for defense to take precedence in Minnesota tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas is 7-1 to the “over” and Boston 5-3 to the “over” across their last eight games respectively. When playing as a road underdog the Mavericks are 12-5 to the “over” on the season with these two combining to go 20-13 to the “over” in non-conference games. Sure, the Mavericks sit 13th in defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last 10 games specifically they rank 25th in defensive rating. Dallas runs at a top ten pace and they may want to run fast tonight, especially with how thin they are in the front court. Look for a high-scoring output in Boston tonight for their non-conference showdown against Boston.

Rating: 2 Units

The Owls and Hilltoppers combined to miss 17 free throws in that one. Kennesaw shot 8-for-41 (19.5-percent) from three-point range. The Owls started the game 4-for-20 from the floor and did not cross the double-digit point mark until there was eight minutes remaining in the first half. Playing at home in the rematch should help to settle some of those shooting woes. In conference play, Kennesaw State is scoring an average of 75.4 points per game at home compared to 72 points per game on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Friars are turning the ball over on 20.3-percent of their possessions in conference play. Sitting at 11-11 on the season, second-year head coach Kim English has begun the youth movement. This season was supposed to be built around Player of the Year candidate Bryce Hopkins, but he's only played in three games all season after a failed return from a knee injury. Kalkbrenner is likely going to enjoy his interior matchup against freshmen Oswin Erhunmwunse and Ryan Mela. We're expecting this game to be played in the post and not with 14 made three-pointers like the first one. Four of Creighton's last five games have stayed under the total.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs and Hawks are a combined 21-13 to the “over” in non-conference games this season with Atlanta specifically running at the second fastest pace. Both teams rank bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency with Trae Young scoring 34 points in back-to-back games leading into this one. The Spurs are 9-6 to the “over” when listed as a favorite which will be the case tonight so look for tons of points to be scored in Atlanta for Spurs vs Hawks as Fox looks to fit in with the Spurs rotation.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games with the Lakers going 4-1 to the “over” across their last five. Sure, both teams run at a slow pace but both rank in the top half of the league in fast break points per game and both rank bottom half at defending the fast break. It’s worth noting that Maxi Kleber isn’t listed on the injury report and should make his Lakers debut tonight, adding a three-point shooting threat off the bench. Take the “over” in tonight’s Lakers vs Clippers showdown.

Rating: 2 Units

Both our power ratings and game line both list the 76ers as 1-2 point favorites. Sure, Philadelphia has been in solid form as of late, but their 6-0 ATS run came all listed as an underdog as they’ve gone 7-11 ATS as a favorite on the season. With all the injury concerns heading in, we’re going to play on the “over” in this game with Dallas 6-1 to the “over” across their last seven and Philadelphia 6-2 to the “over” across their last eight. Both Philadelphia and Dallas rank bottom six in defensive rating across their last six games with the Mavericks going 11-5 to the “over” as a road underdog on the season. In non-conference games these two have combined to go 22-9-2 to the “over” on the season so let’s look for another “over” result in Philadelphia tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Kings have allowed 126 ppg during their trip and 235 ppg scored during the first three head-to-head matchups between these two teams. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” in their last six games respectively so let’s look for another “over” result in Minnesota tonight with Sacramento 7-4 to the “over” as a road underdog this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are 7-3 to the “over” when listed as a road underdog. The Knicks sit first in offensive rating across their past ten games with the Rockets sitting 13th during that span. Although Houston sits third in defensive efficiency on the season, they sit just 22nd in defensive rating across their last ten games. Both teams last played Saturday and when on equal rest, the Knicks are 18-10 to the “over” on the season. Look for abundant scoring to occur at MSG for this matchup tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Last year’s meeting saw these two teams produce a combined 137 points to hit the over against a 122-point total. Things have been boosted up a bit this time around, due to Pittsburgh’s offense being more boisterous. Virginia would seem to be the issue once again here, but they have enjoyed some of their best offenses efforts of the season over their last few weeks. They averaged 72.3 points over their last four games and scored a season-high 82 points just two games ago. Pittsburgh’s offense has been very consistent, scoring between 78-70 points in each of their last six games. Noted above, they have plenty of guys who can take the ball and score it, so they shouldn’t have any issues doing their part. The over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two. Take the over.

Rating: 2 Units

When you get teams like Bradley, Belmont, Indiana State and Northern Iowa together, you usually get a discount on the total because these teams have been dragged down by the slow-pokes of the league. Bradley has played Indiana State twice, and those games have seen 179 and 183 points. Bradley and Northern Iowa have each played Belmont this season, and those games have seen 146 and 166 points. When you put the right teams together, you usually get some entertaining affairs in this league. We're expecting that to be the case today.

Rating: 2 Units

Three of the last four meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Powell is averaging 24.1 points per game this season. He was 11-for-15 from the floor with 27 points in Friday's win over the Hornets. His absence is going to be felt in this one. During this impressive nine-game run from the Raptors, the under is 7-2 as Toronto has held those nine opponents to an average of 104.7 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Utes only scored nine points over the last eight minutes of the game as they took the air out of the ball in the second half. The Utes and Cowboys combined to miss 17 free throws, and we still saw 145 points in that contest. Any mild improvement from the three-point line or the free throw line should be enough to push this second meeting over the total. Oklahoma State's offense has been notably better at home compared to on the road. The Cowboys scored 79 against Kansas State, 83 against Colorado and 78 against Arizona at home. Anything in that neighborhood on Saturday should be enough to send this game over the depressed total.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks have gone 8-2 to the “over” across their last ten games with San Antonio sitting 7-4 to the “over” in non-conference games on the season. The Spurs have allowed 128 ppg across their last five games with Milwaukee ranking fourth in effective field goal percentage on the season. Look for points to be scored in tonight’s Bucks vs Spurs clash in San Antonio.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs' most-used lineup features four players at 6-foot-6 or taller, which can be a matchup nightmare in the Ivy League. Princeton's roster is outside the top-300 in KenPom's height metric. Yale is going to be able to crash the offensive boards and generate second-chance opportunities. Princeton is going to be able to generate a lot of three-point opportunities. Over 40-percent of the Tigers' points this season have come from the three-point line, which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. Both offenses should enjoy success in this matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

The college basketball landscape is ever-changing, but UCLA's Mick Cronin and Oregon's Dana Altman are staples at their respective programs. Because these teams play multiple times per year, let's focus on the second meeting each season after they have already seen each other once. Since 2022, the second meeting of the season has produced 131, 133 and 134 points. With some film to work with, both coaches are very good at making the necessary adjustments toward shutting down the opponent in the rematch. We believe that will be the case again today.

Rating: 2 Units

Memphis is off to a 6-1 start in conference play, but the Tigers have one glaring weakness: Turnovers. Memphis is No. 327 in turnover rate this season, giving the ball away on over 20-percent of its possessions. It's actually a problem that has progressively gotten worse over the course of the season. When filtering to just conference games, the Tigers' turnover rate is even higher. Tulane is certainly equipped to take advantage of that. The Tigers' defense is also due for some regression at the three-point line. Conference opponents are only shooting 27.6-percent from three-point range against Memphis, which is six-percent below the national average. Eventually, someone is going to hit some shots against the Tigers' defense. Based on prior results, Tulane looks to be a good candidate. We're seeing too big of an adjustment from last season's closing totals.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Portland State Vikings vs Montana Grizzlies Prediction, Montana is coming as -3.5 home favorites. The Grizzlies are almost perfect at home this season and have been dominating the Vikings in recent years. Both teams have been playing very good basketball lately and are involved in some lower-scoring games, as they are 10-3 to the under in their last 13 games combined. I expect another low-scoring affair, so take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams play at a bottom ten pace with Phoenix an NBA best in “under” results against conference opponents at 16-9 and second best when playing at home going 16-7 to the “under”. On offense both of these teams rank bottom ten in fast break points per game and both are bottom half of the league in turnover ratio, but it doesn’t look like it will convert to a high scoring game tonight with both teams sitting bottom half of the league in points off turnovers on the season. Look for defense to be at the forefront tonight in Phoenix as they go for their fifth straight “under” result.

Rating: 2 Units

While Duquesne's offense has taken a step back from the prior two seasons, so has the defense. Duquesne's defense is No. 300 in free throw attempts allowed, and opponents are shooting 36.4-percent from three-point range against the Dukes (nearly three percent above the national average). Both teams shoot a high-volume of three-point attempts. Using season-long numbers, we can understand why this total is where it is. But Duquesne's offense is playing better since its 2-8 start. Neither team had a very good shooting night in their first meeting (Saint Joe's missed nine free throws), and we still saw 146 points in regulation.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hokies are No. 330 in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 20.5-percent of their possessions this season. Florida State's length is a nightmare matchup for 5-foot-11 guard Ben Hammond and 6-foot-1 guard Brandon Rechsteiner. Virginia Tech is No. 310 in adjusted tempo this season. In conference play, the Hokies are using an average of 19.2 seconds per possession. Five of Virginia Tech's last six games have stayed under the total.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami's defense has been particularly problematic, ranking 345th out of 364 teams in defensive rating according to KenPom, and allowing 80.6 points per game. Their offense has been more respectable, averaging 75.7 points per game and ranking 58th by KenPom.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jazz are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games as the only two “under” results came with totals listed at 248 and 239.5 and tonight’s total listed at 229. The Warriors are 5-1 to the “over” across their last six games and 11-6 to the “over” when listed as a home favorite with Utah sitting at 16-9 to the “over” when playing on the road. The Jazz have averaged 113.5 points per game during their losing streak as we’d only need them to reach 110 points tonight for the “over” to hit which we think they can do against a Warriors defense that’s currently struggling.

Rating: 2 Units

The Friars' offense is No. 10 in the 11-team Big East in turnover rate. We're going to focus on the first half under in this contest, testing to see how well Providence responds to the Georgetown hangover. The Friars actually beat the Hoyas three times last season. In the three games following those twins, Providence scored an average of 28.3 points in the first half of the following game. Seton Hall's offense is No. 326 in effective field goal shooting, No. 307 in turnover rate, No. 352 in two-point shooting and No. 352 in two-point shooting. The Pirates are bottom-20 in the country in three-point attempts, so we shouldn't have to worry about a three-point contest breaking out in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have some major issues on offense, but this total is just too low in our opinion. These teams met twice last year and both games would have cleared this 132 total that we're seeing on Tuesday morning, including a 61-possession contest in Athens that was played at a snail's pace. Assuming this total stays in the 132 neighborhood, this will be by-far the lowest total that either team has seen this season. In fact, Georgia has only played in one game all season with a total below 140 (vs Tennessee). We understand the sentiment behind the low total and these two teams are very unlikely to explode into the 80s, but with Thomas returning for the Gamecocks, this total is too low.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA went 9-for-17 (52.9-percent) from beyond the arc against Washington on Friday, and we still only saw 125 points in that contest. Both teams have played really good, fast-paced offenses in recent weeks (Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc.), and most of those games have gone over the total - The over has cashed in each of USC's last six games, and the over is 5-1 in UCLA's last six. In our opinion, those results are inflating the number for this one. With Bilodeau's status in question, look for Coach Cronin to go back to his defensive roots and turn this game into a slow grind.

Rating: 2 Units

The over has cashed in four of Incarnate Word's last five games. In the 12-team Southland Conference, Incarnate Word is No. 11 in defensive efficiency, last in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 11 in three-point shooting allowed and No. 11 in two-point shooting allowed. New Orleans is last in defensive efficiency, No. 10 in effective field goal shooting allowed, last in offensive rebounds allowed and No. 10 in two-point shooting allowed while playing at the fastest pace in the league. Don't expect to see a defensive masterpiece in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The total closed at 142 in that matchup, and we only saw 112 points in regulation. So why has Sunday's total opened six points higher than that? Ivisic had 15 points and five assists in that first meeting, which is a healthy chunk of production that the Illini need to replace on offense. Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. In the 18-team Big Ten, Northwestern's offense ranks No. 15 in efficiency, No. 15 in effective field goal shooting, No. 16 in three-point shooting and No. 15 in two-point shooting. Much like yesterday's UCF vs TCU contest, KenPom, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics all project this game to comfortably under the 148 number that we’re seeing this morning.

Rating: 2 Units

Knicks are 6-1 to the “under” off 2-3 days of rest and 8-2-1 to the “under” with a rest advantage this season. Sure, the Kings have gone “over” in five of their last six games, but they’re 7-5-2 to the “under” in non-conference games and of those last five games, all teams they played rank top half of the league in pace with New York ranking 27th in pace on the season heading. The Knicks should command the pace in this one and they’ve gone “under” in three straight so let’s look at the “under” to occur once again at MSG tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Western Kentucky's defense allows a high-volume of three-point attempts, but no one has been able to make them against the Hilltoppers. Nearly 45-percent of opponents' field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, which is almost six-percent above the national average. But opponents are only making 29.3-percent of those, which is bottom-20 in the country. Sam Houston fits the profile of a team that can make the Hilltoppers' defense pay from the three-point line. Both of last year's meetings cleared 150 points. When these teams met in Huntsville last season, Sam Houston missed ten of its first 12 shots from the floor. Western Kentucky missed 12 of its first 15 shots from the floor. That game still finished with 152 points. If we can avoid another slow start like that, this game should soar over the total.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawkeyes have had issues with defending the three-point line, as conference opponents are shooting 41-percent from beyond the arc against Iowa. Penn State is unlikely to take advantage of that weakness. Only 26.1-percent of Penn State's points come from the three-point line, which is No. 314 in the country. These teams have produced some very entertaining games in recent seasons, and Friday's contest is likely to join that group. But a lot of things have to go right for a game to eclipse 169 points, and there's simply no wiggle room for a slow start or a two-minute stretch with some missed shots.

Rating: 2 Units

Sure these two both sit top six in “over” results this season, but the Pelicans haven’t seen a total this high aside from their Jan 14th win over Chicago where the total was 243 and went “under” by 11 points. Memphis did win 132-124 last time these two played but they went a combined 58-64 from the free throw line and we don’t anticipate that many free throws being attempted again tonight as they only combine to shoot 45 free throws per game on the season. We’re sure to see some scoring but outside of DeJounte Murray, C.J. McCollum and Trey Murphy III, it’s tough to tell where offense will come from on the New Orleans side.

Rating: 2 Units

We're looking at a lower number on Friday night, despite massive improvements from the Wolverines' offense from last year to this year. The maize-and-blue went from No. 95 in offensive efficiency last year to No. 14 this year. The Wolverines were using 17.8 seconds per possession last year, and they have shaved that down to 15.5 seconds this year. Michigan shot 49.5-percent from two-point range last year, and the Wolverines are No. 3 in the country and 60.8-percent this year. So Michigan's offense has seen massive improvements while playing faster, yet this total is actually lower than the same matchup in the same location at the same time of year in 2024.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ll look at an “under” play with Boston going 13-6 to the “under” as a road favorite this season. Both teams rank outside the top ten in offensive rating their last five games with the Lakers specifically ranking 22nd and both playing at a bottom ten pace as well. The Celtics rank dead last in fast break points per game on offense and are sixth in fewest allowed on defense. It’s also worth noting that LA ranks top ten in fewest three-point field goal attempts per game with both ranking top four in fewest free throw attempts per game as well so points coming while the clock is stopped will be at a premium. Take the “under” in LA tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami has gone “over” in four straight with Milwaukee going “over” in six-straight which is the play we’ll recommend here tonight. Miami ranks bottom five in defensive rating across their last five games with Milwaukee playing at a top 10 pace in which we’ll likely see a fast tempo with the Bucks getting tons of rest before tonight. Milwaukee ranks third in offensive rating their last five games and although the Heat won’t have Butler, some other role players are starting to get more comfortable on offense including Kel’el Ware who has scored 25 and 20 points respectively across his last two games while averaging 7.7 ppg this season and Duncan Robinson scoring 21 and 22 his past two games while averaging 11 ppg on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The under has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these rivals. The first meeting last year stayed comfortably under the total as Wilmington earned a nine-point home win. The 154 points that we saw in the second meeting deserves a big asterisk. There were 141 points scored after 39 minutes, and 13 points scored in the final 49 seconds as Charleston desperately tried to extend the game through fouling and quick scores. If we can avoid a scenario like that on Thursday, we anticipate another low-scoring affair between these familiar foes.7

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors are 5-2 to the “under” across their past seven with both teams ranking top 10 in fewest fast break points allowed per game and both bottom 10 in fast break points scored on offense per game. Both teams sit within a game of each other in the highly contested Pacific Division and although Golden State is shorthanded and enduring a tough stretch, they’ll bring the defense out tonight with these two combining to go 9-7 to the “under” in divisional matchups on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams rank top 10 in defensive efficiency and outside of Kyrie Irving, it’s tough to tell where offense may come from tonight on the Dallas side. He had 33 points last game with Daniel Gafford scoring 31 but the Mavs big man averages just 12 ppg on the season so we don’t expect another high scoring performance from him, especially with Minnesota ranking top 10 in fewest points in the paint allowed per game. Dallas is 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog and Minnesota 9-7 to the “under” as a road favorite so we expect points to come at a premium in Dallas tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Racers have not done much racing over the last two seasons because this iteration of Murray State is playing at the slowest tempo of any Steve Prohm-coached team. When he was at Iowa State, Coach Prohm's Cyclones were routinely top-100 in pace. Over the last two seasons, Murray State has gone 22-29 so this adjustment to a slower playing style has not worked. The over is 7-4 in Murray State's last 11 games. Playing with a bit more confidence on offense, look for Southern Illinois to push the pace and help get this final score over the total.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia now sits as the worst ATS team in the NBA so let’s recommend a play on the “over” with these two combining to go 22-6-2 to the “over” in non-conference games with Denver specifically going 13-2 to the “over”. Philadelphia is 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games and while Denver leads the league in fast break points on offense, they also allow the fourth most fast break points on defense which bodes well for Tyrese Maxey averaging 31 ppg across his past seven games. It’s also worth noting that Denver is 16-9 to the “over” after a win which will be the case tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams rank bottom ten in defensive efficiency with the Nets ranking top 10 in three pointers made per game and the Knicks ranking second to last in three-point percentage allowed on defense. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games respectively and although both rank bottom five in pace, Brooklyn may want to crank up the tempo knowing the Knicks are playing on tired legs tonight. New York is 16-10-1 to the “over” so let’s look for some points in Brooklyn as these cross-town rivals go at it once again.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be Boston’s fourth game in their last six days, coming off a 119-115 overtime loss to Atlanta at home. It’s worth noting Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play in that game with no injury designation heading into today. The Warriors defeated the Celtics 118-112 in Boston back on Nov. 6 but Boston didn’t have Jaylen Brown and Porzingis for that matchup. Our power ratings favor Golden State but with so many injury concerns on their side we’re going to look at an “under” result with Boston going 12-5 to the “under” as a road favorite on the season. Golden State is 4-1 to the “under” as a home underdog and are 4-2 to the “under” across their last six games. The Celtics are 6-2 to the “under” across their last eight games with both teams sitting top 10 in defensive efficiency heading into their matchup today.

Rating: 2 Units

Nearly every New Orleans game with a total in the mid-140s like we have today has gone over the number. Opponents are only using 16.0 seconds per possession against the Privateers' defense, which is the seventh-fastest mark in the country. Per KenPom, New Orleans is bottom-10 in the country in average height and bottom-10 in allowing offensive rebounds. New Orleans is forced to do everything through speed and the perimeter. Northwestern State swept this series last year, scoring an average of 81 points in those two games. We're expecting a similar high-scoring outcome

Rating: 2 Units

Portland's Jerami Grant returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing the Blazers' last nine games. Grant struggled to shake off the rust, scoring just seven points with three turnovers in 25 minutes against the Rockets. We're going to look toward the under in this contest. The Bulls' last three road games have each stayed under the total. This will be the Blazers' seventh back-to-back of the season. In the second leg of the previous six, the under has gone 4-2. The Blazers are bottom-5 in the league in offensive efficiency this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Look at the point totals from teams making their first trip to the Intuit Dome. Brooklyn scored 67 points on Wednesday. Miami scored 98 on Monday. Since December 1, only one team has hit the 110-point mark at the Intuit Dome (Houston on December 8). Golden State, Orlando, Sacramento and Philadelphia were all held below 100 points in their first trip to the new arena. The under is 10-3 in the Clippers' last 13 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder shot 43-percent from three-point range in that contest, but just 15-for-45 from two-point range. Dallas out-scored Oklahoma City 22-2 in fast-break points and 36-22 in points in the paint. Prior to that, Oklahoma City's last five games had all gone over the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Prior to that stumble, the Thunder had scored at least 118 points in each of their previous five games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed that contest against the Mavericks, which was his first missed game of the season. He is questionable to return on Sunday. After a promising start to the season, Brooklyn's defense is now on the cusp of entering the bottom-5 in the league.

Rating: 2 Units

Over 23-percent of UMass' points this season have come from the free throw line. La Salle head coach Fran Dunphy has been around for a long time, and we have a hard time seeing his Explorers getting dragged into a similar contest with UMass. In A-10 play, Coach Dunphy has essentially trimmed his roster to a seven-man rotation. With a thin bench, La Salle can't afford to get into a free throw shooting contest with UMass. Let's see how much Rivera and Diggins have in the tank after both played 48 minutes on Wednesday.

Rating: 2 Units

It's still early, but Temple is playing at the fastest pace in the AAC. Conference opponents are only shooting 64.5-percent from the free throw line against Temple, so there is still room for some more points to be scored against the Owls. Memphis and Temple combined for 169 points on Thursday, and there were 23 missed free throws in that contest. Tulane is shooting 76.6-percent from the free throw line this season, so hopefully the Green Wave will not share in those struggles.

Rating: 2 Units

The Buffalo offense has been great but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.31 goals per game. Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram have combined for 3.5 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net with ease.  The Rangers are having a great season with their offense leading the way, scoring 4.00 goals per game.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh has been leaky in their own end. We’ve seen the Penguins give up at least three goals in each of their six games and they have surrendered at least four in four of them. It’s tough to have faith in Pittsburgh given their defensive zone issues, especially on the road against a team that is hot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Panthers have controlled the series for the most part despite their offense struggling and scoring only four goals in the first two games. Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk have scored four goals and three assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has struggled. In addition, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been great in this series, stopping 52 of the 54 shots he's faced. While the Ranger's Igor Shesterkin has stepped up in the net, saving 50 of the 53 shots he's faced.

Rating: 2 Units

A glaring issue for Indiana on the road has been their defense. New York's lowest-scoring home game in this series was 121 points. Indiana allowed the most free throw attempts all season, and that has carried into this series.  The real question is how are the Knicks going to get stops. Their injuries have left them severely undersized. Indiana was already the league's highest-scoring offense. They held the Pacers to a season-low 91 points in game five, also at home, but that won't happen again. Sharp rotations and denying the paint is a must, especially after allowing 62 points in the paint on Friday. The high-scoring Pacers have not had a "total" beneath 214.5 all season. 

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas stands tied for 7th in the league in goals per game as they average 2.80 goals per contest in postseason play. The Stars stand 4th in the league in goals against as they allow an average of 2.40 goals a night this season. Dallas is 4th when it comes to success on the power play as they convert on 29.2% of their chances with the man advantage this season. Colorado heads into this one 1st in the league in goals per game as they average 4.50 goals a night in the postseason. The Avalanche are 11th in goals against as they allow an average of 3.38 goals a contest. Colorado is tied for 2nd in the league with the man advantage as they convert 33.3% of their chances with the man advantage. 

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado hopes to shake off the slow starts that plagued them in the first two games of this series as they head home for Games 3 and 4. The Avalanche took home ice with their win in Game 1 but they have to be on their toes here to avoid giving it back to the Stars. Colorado heads into this one 1st in the league in goals per game as they average five goals a night in the postseason. The Avalanche are 11th in goals against as they allow an average of 3.29 goals a contest. Colorado is 2nd in the league with the man advantage as they convert 38.1% of their chances with the man advantage.

Rating: 2 Units

It is impossible to ignore how injured the Knicks are right now. OG Anunoby's absence will hurt them on both ends, and they have an excellent record with him. However, Indiana's struggles in the first two games were not with scoring. Rather, their inability to get stops, especially while Brunson is on the floor, is hurting them. The Knicks are constantly getting open shots, hence their 55.4% shooting from the floor. New York's offensive rebounding will wake up eventually if the Pacers do start forcing misses. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Avalanche have won five consecutive playoff games since losing their first-round opener to the Winnipeg Jets. Colorado has shown plenty of offensive punch in that stretch. As much as the Avalanche can take pride in drumming up an impressive comeback victory to kick off this series, they know it is not a long-term recipe for success against the Stars, who finished atop the Western Conference standings in the regular season. Knowing Colorado has the firepower to come back -- led by Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar -- is comforting. The Avalanche have 32 goals in six playoff games this year and are the only team averaging more than five goals per game in the postseason. Colorado's cavalcade of talent converted both power-play opportunities in Game 1, and has now clicked for eight goals on 18 chances with the man advantage in the playoffs this year.

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of the ref's calls at the end of game one seemed to favor the Knicks. Regardless, now is not the time for the Pacers to rely on excuses. Rather, they need to keep scoring as they did during the regular season. Game one's 117 was encouraging, as this club is now up to 113.6 points per contest in the postseason. With all of the offense in the world, Indiana still has clear issues defensively. They gave up the fourth-most points per game this season and have followed it up by surrendering 111.7 in the playoffs, more than any other team still alive. In game one, a team that was 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and facing the NBA's best offensive rebounding unit held up nicely. New York only grabbed eight. It didn't matter, as the Knicks hit 53.7% of their field goals, 47.8% of their threes, and attempted 26 free throws. Indiana also forced 14 turnovers to no avail.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Ducks are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.14 goals per game. Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish, and Ryan Strome have scored 20 goals and 24 assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well.The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 2.93 goals per game.The Avalanche are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.36 goals per game with five goals in their recent game.

Rating: 2 Units

After falling 6-5 to the National League Central-leading Reds on Monday, Chicago tied a club record with seven homers in Tuesday's 20-9 victory. Then Wednesday, the Cubs went deep five times and overcame two three-run deficits for a 16-6 win. The Cubs, who enter Thursday's action in third place in the division but just three games behind the Reds, have averaged 8.1 runs while batting .321 with 30 homers during their current 12-3 stretch. Scheduled Reds starter Luke Weaver comes in with a 2-3 record and 6.80 ERA. Weaver is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

I do not understand how the Reds keep winning with Weaver taking the mound, but I do know that he is going to give up a bunch of runs in very few innings. He always does. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to Emmet Sheehan, and I suspect his days as a starter are numbered as the Dodgers buy up pieces at the trade deadline. Sheehan has made 6 starts, and he has gotten progressively worse in each one. In his last 3 starts, he has only gotten out of the 4th inning once, and he has given up 17 runs in a combined 12.1 innings. He walked 12 in those 3 starts, and those free bases have usually scored. The devil-may-care Reds shouldn’t have trouble scoring on him either. The weather forecast is for hot temperatures with winds blowing out. Look for plenty of runs to be scored by both sides.

Rating: 2 Units

Today, Cleveland left-hander Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31). Keller, a first-time All-Star after establishing himself as the Pirates' ace this season, pitched one inning in the Midsummer Classic last week. He will have gone a week without pitching since that appearance as Pittsburgh chose not to use him in its first four games following the All-Star break. Before the break, Keller gave up one hit in seven scoreless innings on July 8 at Arizona but did not get a decision as the Diamondbacks came back for a 10-inning win. In his only career appearance against Cleveland, on Sept. 25, 2020, Keller did not get a decision after giving up one run and no hits, with eight walks and three strikeouts, in five innings. Allen, a 24-year-old rookie who has never faced the Pirates, could earn his way back into the rotation after the Guardians went with the bullpen game on Monday.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay's offense has been one of the best in the league this season and will need to be strong to keep pace with the Rangers, especially if McClanahan struggles for the second-straight start. They average 5.6 runs per game, while averaging .257 and 1.5 home runs per game. Yandy Diaz (.323 average) has been a mainstay getting on base, whole Randy Arozarena (59 RBI) continues to be feared. Texas offense has helped to alleviate pitching problems time after time and their ability to generate run production has been instrumental towards their run to first place. The power has been key for this group and everything starts with Adolis Garcia (24 homeruns, 79 RBI).

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians have a solid pitching staff when healthy but are lacking in power and timely hitting at the plate. Cleveland is 15th in team batting average with .250 but drops to 22nd in on base percentage with .314 and 27th in slugging percentage with .375. Therefore it is not surprising the Guardians are 27th in runs scored with 369.  Both offenses are struggling and Pittsburgh has failed to score 5 runs in eight consecutive games, meanwhile the Guardians have scored a combined 10 runs in their previous 4 games. 

Rating: 2 Units

The pitching matchup for the series finale features Atlanta left-hander Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.22) against Chicago right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.30). Allard will make his third start of the season. He pitched five innings against Cleveland on July 4 and allowed three runs on four hits, one walk and three strikeouts. Allard pitched one inning of relief against Tampa Bay in the final game prior to the All-Star Game and allowed two runs in a 10-4 loss. Allard began the season on the injured list with an oblique strain. He was recalled to make a spot start on June 28 and has remained in the rotation. Cease will be making his 20th start of the season and has not had a decision since May 23, a stretch of eight starts, when he beat the Cleveland Guardians. In his most recent appearance on July 7 against St. Louis, Cease pitched six innings and allowed five runs on 11 hits and eight strikeouts. 

Rating: 2 Units

The more encouraging part for Miami might have been third baseman Jean Segura's 3-for-4 performance. He was batting .197 on July 3 but now has multi-hit outings in four of the past five games. Miami's starting pitcher will be left-hander Steven Okert (3-0, 2.43) in what will be his first career start after 201 relief appearances. So this shapes up as a bullpen day for the Marlins as Okert hasn't posted more than two innings in any of his 37 outings this season. Okert is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA all-time against Baltimore.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball, and it hasn’t mattered whether it’s been a lefty or righty pitcher. But more recently, the Braves have been doing better against right-handers. Since June 1, the Braves have a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is by far the best in baseball. But they also rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ISO against right-handers in that time. All that tells me Lance Lynn could be in for a very, very long day. And after Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has the 9th highest ERA in the last 30 days. 

Rating: 2 Units

Brayan Bello was spectacular for the Boston Red Sox in his first 14 starts of the season, posting a 3.04 ERA across 80 innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts. The time he allowed more than 2 was when Tampa Bay scored 3 off him in 6 innings of work. His hard-hit rate ranks in just the 30th percentile, but his elite ground-ball rate has contributed to a 57th-percentile barrel rate and only 8 home runs allowed. The right-hander has cut down his walk rate from last season as well. His sinker-heavy approach should play well in his matchup today against the Cubs. Chicago ranks just 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in SLG against right-handed sinkers this season. In the last 30 days they are just 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching overall. Bello uses 3 other offerings in his arsenal, and his 3.77 FIP ranks 28th among 83 pitchers this season with 80 or more innings of work. 

Rating: 2 Units

Pitching for the Giants will be Ross Stripling, who has not exactly been impressive thus far. Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He ranks in the lower end of the league for most percentiles including xBA (12th percentile), K% (23rd percentile), xSLG (5th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (14th percentile). He most likely won’t pitch too far into this matchup, but some damage could be done in the short span that he is on the mound. Pitching for the Pirates will be Rich Hill, who has a 7-9 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. While these numbers may not exactly be horrible, I expect more regression from Hill. He currently has an xERA of 5.64 and — similar to Stripling — ranks in the lower end of most percentiles. He sits in the 10th percentile for xBA, 10th percentile for xSLG, 35th percentile for K% and 40th percentile for BB%. In the last 4 games Hill has given up 15 runs and 23 hits.

Rating: 2 Units

The All-Star Game has been very low scoring. In 2022, the American League won by a score of 3-2 which cashed the under. Looking at a bigger sample size, the average number of runs in an All-Star Game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is 6.89. That would come in just under this year’s total of 7.5. Additionally, 10 of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs. Only once during that span did a game ever reach double-digit runs (14 runs in 2018), so the games have always been closer to staying under the total than going over the number. It’s easy to see why – these are the best pitchers in baseball. Each pitcher knows that they’re only going to get an inning, so there’s no use in nipping at the corners and being careful with certain hitters. Each pitcher is going to go out there and try to get as many strikeouts as they can before the inning is over.

Rating: 2 Units

To say that New York Mets right-hander Max Scherzer has dominated the San Diego Padres throughout his 16 seasons in the majors would be an understatement. In 18 career starts against the Padres, Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.910 WHIP and a .185 opponents' batting average while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. The results have been even better in San Diego, where he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA across seven starts. In his past 10 starts, however, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 3.45 ERA, although he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Musgrove knows the feeling of beginning the season slowly. He was 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his first five starts. Over his last eight starts, however, Musgrove is 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Consider that the under is 19-6-1 in Padres last 26 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.