Rating: 2 Units

Tonight I think we will see the Astros' bats come back to life. This team has scored more than six runs per game in the playoffs and faces an important game tonight if it wants to avoid heading to Atlanta down 0-2. Last night's Game 1 saw both teams use a heavy dose of relief pitchers. This lack of top bullpen options plays well into the Over, and last night was only the second postseason game in which the Astros stayed Under the total. The Braves should plate a few runs as well, so we should get back on track here with the Over.

Rating 2 Units

Some books have this at 5.5 and I think at 6.0 we are safe from a loss (barring 3-3 at end of regulation) but may push. Sharks goaltender James Reimer has allowed just one goal in about 92 minutes of action this season (51 shots). Nashville's Juuse Saros has a 2.05 GAA in four home starts. The Under is 10-4-1 in the Predators' last 15 games as home favorites. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts 5.4 goals, but there's no way this is getting to 6.5 at the books so we'll take our chances.

Rating: 2 Units

Undefeated non-div home teams in game 5 > (Cards) have gone a perfect 0-11-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is > 45 pts. At last look, ‘Zona was pegged as big home favs of -16.5 to -17 pts. Consider that all big non div home favs of -13 > pts (Cards), when the OU line is 72 or less points is 7-26 O/U the last 5 years. In last week’s road win over Cleveland, the Cardinals scored 37 points.

Rating: 3 Units

A non-conference SHOOTOUT in Las Vegas is on the menu for Week 7,
now that a NEW guy (Greg Olson) is calling the plays on offense. For us, that means the OVER in the EAGLES / RAIDERS affair. All it took was one game for the revelation. John Gruden’s designed offense was indeed holding the Raiders back. In their 34-pt explosion (and 426 yards) over the best home defense in the NFL (Denver), ALL the pieces on the Raiders offense had a role... which wasn’t even the case when the offense was scoring points earlier in the year.  The Eagles have gone 31-14-1 OU (69%) on the road since 2015, including 15-4 O/U as dogs of 6 < pts. In addition, Philly’s last 15 non-conference road games have gone 12-2-1 O/U, with an avg margin of +8.5 ppg.

Rating: 2 Units

The piss-poor offense of Detroit is ranked #28 in scoring (only 18.3 ppg). In fact, they have scored 17 or LESS points in EACH of their last five games (1-4 O/U). They’ll be taking on a Ram’s defense that has stabilized as of late, allowing only 14.0 ppg in their last two wins. The host Rams are one of three really big home favorites this weekend, as they are laying 15 to 16 pts. Consider that big non-division home favs of 13 > pts with an OU line of 52 < pts (Rams) have gone 7-26 O/U in the last 5 years, including 3-17 O/U when the OU line is in the range of > 43 and < 52 pts. LA was a road fav in each of the last two weeks and brought home the bacon both times.

Rating: 2 Units

This game at Lambeau Field has the potential to be the most WIND-AFFECTED contest of Week Seven. Weather Report: Overcast... chance of showers... winds in excess of 13-17 MPH... The 2021 Washington offense doesn’t scare anyone. Against the league’s 2nd WORSE defense last week (Chiefs),Washington managed only 276 yards and 13 points. That’s not a very encouraging sign. With key injures at all FOUR skill positions (QB / RB / WR / TE), it’s no wonder they’re stuck in neutral with a ranking of only #24 on offense. Consider that All NFL road teams after allowing a COMBINED 136 or MORE pts in their last 4 games (Wash), when the OU line is 54 < pts is 1-11-1 O/U the last 4 years.

Rating: 5 Units

Note that San Jose is 0-6 the last six times it has come off a road win by a single goal, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 goals in that spot. It also checks in a staggering 0-10 the last 10 times it has played on the road for the third time in four nights, outscored by 2.1 goals on average in that situation. After being held to just eight goals through their first four games, I see this as an ideal breakout spot for the Toronto offense before heading out on a tough three-game road trip.

Rating: 2 Units

This may drop to 7.5 soon as the Under is juiced a bit. The Dodgers will go with a bullpen day and I'd imagine that Dave Roberts uses pretty much every single pitcher other than Julio Urias (who started Game 4) and Tony Gonsolin (pitched past two games) to keep the season alive. It's ace lefty Max Fried for the Braves. He led MLB in ERA in the second half of the regular season and held the Dodgers to two runs over six in Game 1. Dating to the regular season, Fried hasn't allowed a run in his past three on the road. LA also will be without Justin Turner in the lineup. The winds are blowing out slightly but not enough to concern me here. Lance Barksdale is considered a moderate Under umpire.

Rating: 2 Units

 few books have seen this total rise to 6, and I think it may get there everywhere because the Flyers are starting shaky backup Martin Jones in net (plus, the Over is juiced currently at -125). He was pretty bad last year for the Sharks, although it certainly wasn't all on him as that team team was terrible. Still, no doubt it's a downgrade from Carter Hart. I'd imagine Boston scores at least three goals and believe the Flyers can get there, too, as they are averaging 5.00 per game so far. 

Rating: 2 Units

Montreal has scored just one goal in each of its three games so far and yet this total is at 6? That Habs are missing a ton of offense on the injured list. Jake Allen has a 2.05 GAA in his two starts in net, so it's not his fault that Montreal lost both. The Sharks scored four goals in their season opener, but they are going to be offensively challenged all season, especially without Evander Kane, who was suspended 21 games this week. Maybe this is a push, but I don't see how these clubs combine for seven goals. The SportsLine Projection Model has it with 5.1 combined goals.

Rating: 2 Units

Monday night same conference games with a HIGH OU line of 52 > pts (Buf @ Ten) have gone 0-6 O/U L4 years. Monday Night games have gone 1-11-1 O/U L7 years in game 4 or greater when the road team is favored by > 4 and < 10 pts (Buf is -5 to -5.5). We’re aware that Buffalo has scored 38 or more points in each of their last 3 games however NFL favorites of > 1 pt who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 3 games (Buf) have gone 1-11 O/U since 2015.

Rating: 2 Units

All non-division teams off a road loss of 14 > pts and a road dog WIN (Giants), when the OU line is 41 > pts is 2-12 O/U since 2011. New York comes in with a 1-4 SU record on the year.  All NFC home teams with a .200 or worse winning pct (Giants), when the OU line is 38 > pts is 4-17 O/U last 4 years.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL home favorites < 7 pts off a MONDAY home game (RAVENS) is 16-3-1 O/U since 2012 . In the last 3 years, this situation has gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U (60.3 combined ppg). All game 3 > WEST time zone road DOGS of > 1 pt (CHARGERS) vs a EAST Time Zone opponent (RAVENS), when the OU line is 46 > pts is 21-5-1 O/U since 2014. The CLINCHER: The Ravens have gone 9-1 O/U at home vs all AFC WEST Division opponents in L10 years w/ an OU line of < 55 pts.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither of these teams exactly lit up the scoreboard in their last series but that is also in part because both have very good pitching staffs. Neither team has multiple guys going well right now either, and both teams will have a day off to reset their bullpens so I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have been terrible with the bats, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in a game yet and no total going over 3. I don’t see the bats waking up today, especially with the wind blowing in. Both teams will have just about all options available out of the bullpen in any sign of trouble also. Take the under.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL DOGS of < 13 pts who allowed 30 or less COMBINED points in their last 3 games (BILLS) have gone 9-1 O/U since 2014. On the flip side, KC’s offense is in mid-season form right now... 3 out of 4 games have totaled 62 or more points... and they ALSO cracked the 40-pt mark last week (like Buf). All NFL games in which BOTH teams scored 40+ pts the previous week (CHIEFS/BILLS) is 6-1 OU since 2014. Not only did that game vs Philly go OVER last week, but the Chiefs also covered a BIG number.

Rating: 2 Units

This Chargers defense is FOR REAL. They are one of only THREE teams to start the year with a 0-4 OU record (the other two are Denver and Pittsburgh). And a league-LOW average MARGIN of -9.5 ppg. They held the mighty Chiefs to only 24 pts... Dallas to only 17 pts... Las Vegas to only 14 pts.... and Wash to only 16 pts (ALL season LOWS). On the flip side, Cleveland also has a killer D in 2021. In fact, the Browns are now ranked #2 in the entire league, allowing only 250.3 yards per game... and only 16.8 points per game

Rating: 3 Units

Kudos to the Bengals for a 3-1 SU record, tied for 1st place in the AFC North. They’ve scored 24 pts, 24 pts, and 17 pts in their last three games. nothing to write home about on offense. But... that ‘moderate’ scoring actually puts them in a great spot for an OVER. Consider that all .666 or better teams who scored 24 < pts in each of their last 3 games (CIN), when the OU Line is > 37 points is 41-10-1 OU last 6 years. LAST year, teams in this exact same position went 12-1 O/U!

Rating: 2 Units

This is a NFC North Division series that has gone 3-1 O/U in the last 4 meetings in 2019 and 2020, with an average of 56.2 combined PPG. If this was back in 2018 or 2019, we might have gone the other way... as NFC North Division games went 7-16-1 O/U in that 2-year period. But in 2020, NFL North Division games flip-flopped... and went 9-3 O/U with an average of 55.2 combined ppg. With Minnesota laying a TD in this game, we note that in the last 2 years, GAME 11 or less NFL big division home favs of -7 > pts (VIKINGS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is 50 or less points (58.6 combined PPG)

Rating: 2 Units

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-14 UNDER in their last 17 division road games.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 1-7 UNDER when coming off a road dog win, and 1-6 UNDER in their last seven division home games. Look for the Bolts to stay UNDER the total in their 4th consecutive home game tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

In their last 9 non-division games over the last 12 months, the Patriots have gone a perfect 0-9 O/U (avg margin -8.0 ppg). With the visiting Bucs laying sizable points on the road (-6.5 to -7), this game is active in two of  the same situations as our Chiefs / Eagles UNDER. (1) 3-15 O/U L5Y: All GAME 11 < non-division road favs of -6 > pts (Bucs), with an OU line of 49 > pts. (2) 0-7-1 O/U L4 years: All NFL road favorites of > 3 pts after scoring AND allowing 24 > pts in each of last 3 games (Bucs). Tampa lost last week’s game to the Rams by 10 points. 16-58-1 O/U s’14: ALL teams off a road FAV loss of 10 > pts (Bucs). The results improve to 3-18 O/U (85% Unders) when the OU line is > 46 points

Rating: 3 Units

The host Cowboys will be on short rest off last week’s Monday Nigther. Consider that game 4 or greater teams off a Monday game (Dal) have gone 5-19-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is a high 49 or more points. Dallas is in the midst of a 3-game homestand. 0-6-1 O/U L5Y: All non-division teams in the 2nd of 3 straight home games (Dal), in-between same-division games (Dal). Don’t be afraid that Dallas just scored 41 points on Monday Night. NFL non-div home favorites who scored 40+ at home in their last game (Dal) have gone 5-17-1 O/U since 2011... and a perfect 0-6-1 O/U in last four years.

Rating: 3 Units

Just like out other play, the host in this game will be playing on reduced rest (after a Monday game). 0-6 O/U since 2015: All NFL underdogs of > 3 points off a Monday division road game (Eagles), when the OU line is > 41 points. At last look, the OU line for this non-conference game was one of the highest of the week (54-55 pts). Last season, NFL non-division games with a very high OU line of > 53 points in week 4 to week 8 went 90% UNDER (1-9 O/U).

Rating: 3 Units

For the visiting Saints, it’s been a weird two weeks to start the year. On offense, they scored 35 points against Green Bay in Week One, but only 7 points last week vs Carolina. The over is a perfect 15-0 O/U since 2007 for all NFL underdogs who scored 7 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (SAINTS). Also consider that NFL teams off a SU division loss in which they rushed for 55 < yards (SAINTS) have gone 16-2 O/U in their next game over the last two seasons. To close it out the Patriots are  17-5 O/U in non-divisional games with OU line 43 < pts.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants had a rare ‘OVER’ in last Thursday’s game against Washington. But we can’t ignore the fact that New York was the #1 under team in all of football last year (3-12-1 O/U / 0-7 O/U L7 games)... and also had the worst home offense in the NFL (only 16.4 points per game). Consider also that NFL road teams who allowed 45+ points in their previous game (Falcons) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U when the OU line is 52 < pts.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville comes into this one still seeking it’s first win which slides right into our under play as game 3 or greater winless home underdogs of +5 > points have gone 5-21 O/U since 2016. The Jaguars could only muster up 13 points in last week’s loss to Denver. Consider that the under is 3-15 O/U last 2 years with all NFL underdogs off a SUATS home dog loss in which they scored less than 14 points (Jaguars), when the OU line is 42 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

 I don't even need to see the lineups for this game as the wind is projected to be blowing in from left field at nearly 23 mph -- hence the tiny total. Twins pitcher Joe Ryan (2.12 ERA) has been very good in his three big-league starts, and the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks is always capable of shutting a team out.

Rating: 2 Units

We hit the Under on Monday between these teams because the wind was blowing in at Comerica Park and it's blowing in even harder today so let's try it again even though neither starting pitcher -- Dallas Keuchel and Tyler Alexander -- is all that trustworthy. The total has dropped to 9 almost everywhere so we are getting a free half-run.

Rating: 2 Units

The wind is blowing essentially straight in at around 10 mph at Comerica Park, so that could turn a homer or two into a potential long out. White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon is good enough to blank the Tigers for six innings (Sox probably won't let him go longer than that just to ensure health for the playoffs). Don't trust Detroit rookie Matt Manning all that much, but he generally has been quite a bit better at home. Chicago slugger Jose Abreu is also sitting. The Under is 8-3-1 in White Sox's last 12 overall and 5-1 in the Tigers' past six.

Rating: 3 Units

Pittsburgh has gone 30-11-1 O/U as home favorites of < 9 pts since 2013, including an amazing 15-1 O/U in Week 11 or less in non-divisional games. In addition, the Steelers have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U when hosting these ‘West to East’ games s’12 (61.9 combined points per game!). Meanwhile, the Raiders have gone 10-1 O/U as ‘West to East’ road dogs the last 6 years when the OU line is < 50 points.

Rating: 3 Units

In the last two seasons, NFL non-division road teams have gone 90% under the Total (1-9 O/U) before a Thursday home game the following week (Houston). NFL big home favs of -12 > pts (Browns) have gone 25-55 O/U last 6 years... including 1-15 O/U in GAME 11 or less when the OU line is > 45 points. In addition game 2 big home favs of > 8 pts have gone 18-49 O/U since 1986.

Rating: 2 Units

DENVER has gone 14-33-1 O/U (70% Unders) as favorites of < 10 pts last 8 years... including 5-18 O/U when favored by > 3 and < 10 pts. And that’ll play right into JACKSONVILLE’s record of 0-6 O/U at home last 3 years (37.5 points per game) when playing off a division loss.

Rating: 2 Units

New York was easily the #1 under team in the league last year, going 3-12-1 O/U (next best UNDER team was LA Rams at 6-12 O/U). New York was also the only team in the league to average less than 40 combined points per game (17.5 on offense / 22.3 on defense). With Denver laying about a field goal in this one, we note that the Broncos are on a current 3-12 O/U run when favored on the road... including a perfect 0-4 O/U in the last three years. This is one of seven different games on the Week One schedule is which the road team is favored.

Rating: 3 Units

This is one of those familiar WEST to EAST game. In cases like this the total has gone 3-16 O/U the last 5 years: All West Time Zone road favs of > 3 pts (Niners) vs any east Time Zone opponent (Lions), when the OU line is > 42 points. There’s also a couple of ‘Game Specific’ situations that are worth noting. First, the total has gone 6-27-1 O/U since 1996 (82% Unders) when all game one non-division road favorites of 3 > points (San Francisco), when the OU line is > 41 points. Second, the total has gone 1-11 O/U last 12 years (92% Unders) when in game one both teams won 6 or less games last season (Niners + Lions), when the OU line is > 40 points. In addition, the last ten games of this Niners / Lions series have gone 2-8 O/U... with an average of only 41.7 combined ppg.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has been the league’s number one home ‘OVER’ team in the last four seasons. The Titans have gone 8-1 O/U in their last nine non-conference home games, with an average OU margin of +10.0 in those games. There’s also some solid numbers for this week’s visitors. The Cardinals have gone 17-5 O/U since 2001 as non-conference road dogs of 13 < pts, and that includes a perfect 10-0 O/U in Games 9 or less. They’ve also gone 9-3 O/U in all game ones versus any non-division opponent (including 5-0 O/U on the road).

Rating: 2 Units

I realize both these teams were awful defensively last year, especially Ole Miss. However, this total is crazy and the biggest reason I am going Under is that the Rebs will be without head coach Lane Kiffin. Now, I think Kiffin is more important to Ole Miss than Nick Saban is to Alabama. Before Tide fans lose their minds, let me explain: Kiffin is his team's offensive play-caller. Saban doesn't call plays. Thus, we have to downgrade the Ole Miss offense a bit. And I actually think its defense will be better with nine starters back. This should end something like 40-30 so we're going Under 

Rating: 2 Units

Rain might affect a part of this game but it should be played. I also think this total may drop to 8, so I'll jump now at 8.5. The Phillies are without All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and of course lost Rhys Hoskins for the season last week). It's a pretty weak lineup other than Bryce Harper, and young Nats right-hander Josiah Gray has a 2.89 ERA since being acquired from the Dodgers. Phils ace Zack Wheeler should be able to hold that meh Washington lineup to just a few runs. This feels like a 4-3 maybe 5-3 game, so Under it is.

Rating: 2 Units

Going to jump this one early as a few books have already seen the total drop to 8 and that half-run could easily be the difference. It's Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phils, and he loves pitching during the day (1.43 ERA). Arizona's Madison Bumgarner has been one of the NL's best pitchers since the All-Star break. Educated guess: Phils All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and maybe another regular) sits out this getaway game ahead of a big series in San Diego.

Rating: 2 Units

the Fish are missing leadoff man and terrific rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm (IL) and slugging first baseman Jesus Aguilar (.266, 20 HR, 79 RBI) is not starting today. San Diego is of course down Fernando Tatis Jr. and is resting Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Friars have not seen Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (2.04 ERA during day) while San Diego's Ryan Weathers (1.29 ERA during day) threw four scoreless in Miami last month. Winds won't be a factor. Petco is still a pitchers' park.

10* Total of the Week

The 0ver is 15-4-2 in Twins last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 21-6 in Twins last 27 during game 2 of a series, and 26-10-3 in Twins last 39 vs. a team with a winning record. While the over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 interleague home games, 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Month

Heaney (6-7, 5.32 ERA) gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in a 3-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. That result couldn't have come soon enough for Heaney, considering his previous outings. The 30-year-old posted a 1-4 record with an 8.79 ERA in his previous five starts. So perhaps it's no surprise that Heaney gave himself a little pep talk after each inning against the Twins. Heaney will be opposed Wednesday by Rockies right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06), who has surrendered six runs or more in four of his 15 starts. The most recent such occurrence came July 16 when he was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings of a 10-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 Gonna jump on this total at 8.5 while I can because I'm seeing it dropping to 8 at some books. Weather/winds don't look to be a factor, but the Cubs don't have big bat Javy Baez in the lineup against Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72). His road ERA is 2.52. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (12-4, 3.61) has a 2.19 ERA in four starts this month and allowed one run over six in his lone outing vs. Cincinnati this year.

Rating: 10 Unit10* Top Play Total

Hernandez and company will try their luck against right-hander Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA), who will get the nod on Thursday after being added to the taxi squad from Triple-A Durham. "I don't know if we have an exact message to give him, but we know we want him to start," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the 21-year-old Patino. "He's done good things in Triple-A. Young pitcher that we've got to find a way to give him a little bit of a lane, create a path for him to take off here for us. And hopefully, (Thursday) is the start of that." Patino last pitched for Tampa Bay on July 2, allowing seven runs on as many hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He then yielded five earned runs in his next two appearances with the Bulls.

Rating: 2 Units

It appears the wind will be blowing slightly in from right to left at Coors Field this afternoon. Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber (6-5, 3.48) has a 1.48 ERA at home. The Mariners will use an opener before turning to Chris Flexen, who has a 1.77 ERA over his past seven outings. The Under is 10-1 in Colorado's past 11 at home as the team's pitching staff has really improved.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

With Joe Ross still battling right elbow inflammation, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33 ERA) will start. He last pitched in Friday's 24-8 loss to the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. His last start came on July 9 against the Giants, when he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings.  Espino is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings with the Marlins, including a two-inning appearance on this season on June 25, when he allowed two runs, one earned, and three hits. All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) faces the Nationals for the second time this season -- and his career. On May 2, he took the loss, giving up three runs on four hits over five innings. In his last start, the rookie gave up three runs -- two earned -- in four innings of a loss to the Braves. He struck out a season-low four batters and walked two.

Rating; 2 Units

This total already has dropped to 8 at some books so we'll jump now -- doesn't look like the winds will be a factor. It's ace Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) on the bump for Texas. His ERA in night games is 1.76. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is on the bump for the Tigers (3-3, 3.59). He's on an innings limit so may not go more than five, but it should be a strong five. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Tigers' last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado will send Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) against the Diamondbacks' Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25) in a matchup of right-handers. Faria signed with Arizona on June 16 and made his first appearance with the Diamondbacks three days later. He hadn't started a game since he was with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 but has stared twice in his five appearances since joining the Diamondbacks. He has faced the Rockies twice in his career and is 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA in just one inning against them. Gonzalez has been a different pitcher at home than on the road. He is 0-5 with a 6.81 ERA on the road compared to 2-0 with a 4.31 ERA at Coors Field. His struggles away from home mirror what the team has dealt with this year.

Rating: 2 Units

Switching ballparks from Fenway to Oakland’s spacious layout would certainly seem to present obstacles to run-scoring that didn’t exist during the Red Sox’ home series against Kansas City in which they hung 6, 7, 6 and 15 runs on the old scoreboard. But the words “certainly seem” are merely an abstract. What “seems to be” isn’t necessarily what is. In brief exposure to A’s starter Frankie Montas, Red Sox batters like Michael Chavis, Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez, J.D. Martinez and Danny Santana are 2-for-3, 2-for-3, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 4-for-7. Sure, most of that was in one game at Fenway in 2019, eons ago but still, hot is hot and the Red Sox average 5.0 runs per game on the road. Surely, A’s manager Bob ‘Let Me Find a Guy Who’ll Get Rocked’ Melvin can choose somebody capable of giving up some runs in the 3-4 innings that Montas won’t finish. Meanwhile, Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an average of 4.3 runs per start in his last nine and that’s in a maximum of two-thirds of a game, a level he didn’t reach two-thirds of the time.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams obviously have not played each other this season although they do know each other well from the Atlantic division. Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy have been the two best goalies in the playoffs and I don’t think that will change for the Stanley Cup Finals. There should be a good amount of time spent feeling each other out in this game, so while I do think there is a risk to push with the total at 5, there shouldn’t be too many goals. The Canadiens penalty kill didn’t allow a power play goal to the Knights all series. The Lightning have one of the best power plays in the league but if the Canadiens hold them off the scoreboard on the power play they should hit the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington at Miami (Scherzer vs. Alcantara) Was goin’ this way and that way on Phillies at Mets, Wheeler/Stroman or this match-up for an Under. Landed on this one because in his first start under the “Let’s check this guy!” rules, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies had his worst start of the season earlier this week. Aha! We’ve got our eye on you, fella. Anyway, Max Scherzer survived three checks by Joe Girardi in that game when matched against Wheeler. Marlins who
have faced Scherzer are 25-for-132 against him (.189) with 45-6 K-BB. Alcantara has Scherzer-like numbers (2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and needed to make only 86 pitches to go 8 innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, allowing 5 hits and 1 run. He has lost his last two starts 2-1 and 1-0 because the Marlins can’t hit. The Nationals don’t hit much better.

Rating; 2 Units

88% humidity with 17 mph wind blowing out to left-center field. Good night for the ball to carry farther than normal. Giants’ home games from their last two series at Candlestick, er, Pac Bell, er, whatever tit’s called, have ended in scores of 9-8, 13-7, 10-3, 13-6 and 11-2. A’s manager Bob Melvin did not use Burch Smith or Jesus Luzardo in relief of Chris Bassitt after Bassitt once again gave us the super pro-jock effort in victory, so he is eligible to summon them from the visiting bullpen to help pad the run total of tonight’s outing. Johnny Cueto has allowed 3 to 5 runs in four of his last five starts and if the Giants’ bullpen was in great shape, then those recent home scores wouldn’t have been as high as they were.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 6-1-3 in Islanders last 10 games playing on 1 days rest, 8-2-2 in Islanders last 12 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 7-3-3 in Islanders last 13 playoff games as an underdog. While the over is 3-1-1 in Lightning last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games, and 9-2 in Hawks last 11 games following a straight up win. While the under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games, 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a home favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

After 1-hitting the Mets for 101 pitches through 7 innings on June 4, Blake Snell couldn’t last more than 4 innings in his next two starts at the Mets and  Rockies, giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in a total of 7 1/3 innings. Maybe there’s a reason the Rays’ manager took him out early in the World Series. Although you usually want to go Under or Nowhere when two aces oppose, Snell is not pitching like an ace. The excellent first try vs. the Mets was an exception to his general 2021 rule in a season where his ERA and WHIP are 5.72 and 1.57 and the Padres, a 43-32 team, are 5-9 in his 14 starts. Meanwhile, Kershaw gave up 3 runs in 7 innings losing 6-1 to the Padres on 4/23. Three runs in a Kershaw start is a good number and he’s actually allowed 4 or 5 in four of his last nine starts. It’s getting near the All-Star break so he’s due for the injured list.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

Things can turn around in quickly in Major League Baseball. Take these two teams for example. The Padres came into this series having lost seven of eight while the Reds were on a six-game win streak. Fast forward to the present and it's the Padres looking to finish a four-game sweep on Sunday. They've averaged six runs per game in this series and should have a "good time" at the plate today facing the embattled Luis Castillo, who has a 3-11 team start record for the year. Castillo has been better of late, but he's been facing teams that he was familiar with. Opponents are still batting .275 against Castillo, who has a WHIP of 1.51.

Rating: 2 Units

Brad Keller’s recent form doesn’t inspire much confidence...unless you’re looking for leverage in an Over! The Royals needed to score 14 runs for him to get his last win (actually, they needed only 6 but got 14). He has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his last three starts, the most recent a 10-3 loss to the light-hitting Tigers in this ballpark. Opposing batters barely touched Keller in this stadium last season, when his home ERA was 0.27. But short samples are what they are — short samples. After seven home starts this season, Keller’s home ERA is 7.80 and opposing hitters have a .330 batting average against him in those games. Meanwhile, since beating the Astros 5-1 and giving up 0 runs in 7 2/3 innings, Martin Perez has failed to get past the second inning in two straight starts, giving up 11 runs on 12 hits and 4 walks (4 home runs) in a total of only 3 1/3 innings. Yikes!

10* Total of the Month

Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.11 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.75 ERA). Quantrill is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances, two of them starts, against Pittsburgh. Consider that the over is 20-6-1 in Indians last 27 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Mets’ lefty Joey Lucchesi looked good in two straight starts against the Padres — who let him go after last season. With the personal revenge mojo out the window, he now leaves a pair of pitcher’s parks — Petco and Citi Field — for a road game against an opponent that hits lefties better than righties. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has thrown 14 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two starts. Guess this had to happen eventually but with a guy whose full season ERAs have been 5.01, 5.06, 5.48 the last three seasons and is currently 4.19 after 12 starts in 2021, the other side would seem to be due to offset that scoreless streak with the runs necessary to play to Ross’ previously established typical performance.

Rating:  2 Units

A couple o’ aces are on the hill in Dodger Stadium tonight, always a good potential set-up for a 2-1 ballgame. We’ll take 3-2. 4-3 would work, too. Clayton Kershaw bounced back from a couple of bad starts with 6 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball vs. Texas in his last start. It was a 12-1 game but the Rangers started Mike Foltynewicz, hanging onto a major league career by a thread. Tonight’s visiting starter, Zack Wheeler, from his last nine starts, has median numbers of 7 1/3 innings pitched, 4 hits allowed, 1 run allowed. Wheeler has a 2.29 ERA, 0.90 WHIP.

Rating: 2 Units

The first game had a final score of 4-1. That said, I am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. Getting the under five goals, at an underdog price, is providing very fair value. Both goalies are highly capable. While the Habs have seen the 'under' go 14-9-1 after allowing four or more goals, the 'under' is also a lucrative 8-1-2 when Vegas has played in the Conference Finals.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nats and Pirates rank low in many offensive categories. In fact, they are #29 and #30 in runs scored, 3.75 and 3.46 per game. Say, 3.75 + 3.46 doesn’t even equal as much as 8.5! True. But Patrick Corbin is pitching and he ought to be worth a few more runs than usual to the Pirates. Just load up the lineup with righthanded batters — anyone off the street will pretty much do — as the guy has problems getting them out, which you wouldn’t think would be the case for a pitcher the organization signed to a 6-year, $140,000,000 contract in 2018. The guy will have enough money to buy all the homes on your street then build a parking lot on it, but he can’t make a quality start, not in his last five, anyway. Righthanded batters have a Batting Average, On-Base %, Slugging % and OPS of .312, .380, .550, .931 against Corbin this season. His overall ERA and WHIP are 6.21 and 1.51. Pittsburgh’s lefty Tyler Anderson has more respectable numbers: 4.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. But they are far from  upper echelon for a MLB starter and the Nats hit lefties okay, better than most.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates have the worst Hits Per Run ratio in MLB: 2.12 hits for every run scored. In the typical outing by Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes, the other side doesn’t get many hits. His median innings length in the last five starts is 6; the median hits allowed is 4. His ERA is 1.97, his WHIP 0.71. He has a 94-7 K-BB in 59 1/3 IP. Chad Kuhl would have to pitch the game of his life to beat him, probably, but the Brewers’ average of 6.92 hits per game is fewest in the National League and they have lost some Burnes starts because they supported him and relievers with only 0, 1, 0, 0, 4 and 1 run in those losses. In Burnes’ last two starts, they won 3-2 and 2-0.

Rating: 2 Units

That SOB Kershaw gave up 8 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings against the Braves when we heaped generous praises on him and backed him in his last start.  Forget about him! What a bum. He’d allowed 7 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings to the Giants before that, and he’s owned the Giants in his career. He’s probably headed for his familiar spot on the disabled list (and will no doubt pitch a no-hitter now that we’ve trashed him). Rangers starter Mike Foltynewicz has helped fuel Dodgers rallies in the past and the L.A. batters should be happy to see the ex-National Leaguer in their return home from a road trip. They’re 20-for-51 against Foltynewicz (better than .400!) with only 7 K and 9 BBs. Even Kershaw has 2 RBIs against him in 4 at-bats.

Rating: 2 Units

Vegas appeared to have discovered a hole in Colorado’s defense during its 5-1 victory in Game 4. They were held off the scoreboard until the third period in Game 5, but they’ll once again have last chance playing at home tonight. Philipp Grubauer has been steady for the Aves all season, but Colorado’s backs are also against the wall. If the Aves are trailing in the third, we could see them pull Grubauer relatively early and give the Golden Knights multiple empty-net attempts.

Rating: 2 Units

Michael King has appeared in eight games for the Yankees this season and New York has lost seven of them. They almost always beat the Twins so we’re not going against the Yankees based on King’s unimpressive form since debuting with 6 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball vs. Toronto on April 4. Six days ago he allowed 6 hits and 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. the Red Sox. Meanwhile, before the season, the Twins acquired a couple of veterans to help them in the post-season, where they went last year. Those two vets are Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. Shoemaker, along with Matt Harvey, is one of our happy pet go-againsts. Happ? 5.61 ERA, the Twins have lost 7 of his 11 starts. The team probably won’t be going to the post-season. Although this is Happ’s World Series Game 7 — the Yankees having allegedly ‘mistreated’ him towards the end of his tenure there — his last five starts have had final scores of 13-8, 16-4, 8-5, 6-5 and 6-5, with Happ responsible for giving up 26 of the runs scored in those five games. The Twins’ bullpen, which we like to refer to as a useful tool for anti-Twins and Over players, has allowed 7 runs in 9 innings so far in this series. The number 11 is quite large for a non- Coors Field game but it’s there for a reason — like, hopefully to not be high enough.

Rating: 2 Units

While the two games at Brooklyn both stayed below the total, a change of venue should bring more scoring. The Bucks average 120.8 ppg on this floor. Needless to say, they're going to score more than they did in Game 2. Slowing down the Nets is a different matter; Brooklyn averages 119.9 ppg on the road. The last meeting between these teams, here at Milwaukee, produced 242 points. I won't be surprised if this one also cracks the 240 mark.

Rating: 2 Units

Patrick ‘I Have a World Series Ring and Millions Upon Millions of Dollars As I Give Up Zillions of Hits and Runs Towards the End of My Ridiculous Contract’ Corbin is pitching for the Nationals against an opponent that has been hitting well enough to win 20 of its last 24 games. Corbin has faced a few of the Rays hitters when they played for other teams, but never when they were all part of these Rays and he’s never pitched in this ballpark. Hopefully, he’ll be wishing he never did by the time tonight’s stint is over. Since he 5-hit, 1-runned the Phillies on May 13, Cobin has allowed 29 hits and 15 runs in 20 innings through 4 starts, with only 8 Ks. Shane McClanahan has been okay for Tampa but rookies are rookies and the Nats do okay against left-handed pitching, better than vs. righties.

Rating: 2 Units

Marlins manager Don Mattingly pulled a fast one on us yesterday at about 1:30 pm, ET, switching from Pablo Lopez to a bullpen night in Fenway Park (losing the game, 5-3). There’s nothing we can do about managers jerking people and pitchers around after prior arrangements have been announced, except to have that general guideline in place. Obviously, in switching from Boston to Colorado, Lopez’ task becomes easier — at least in theory. The Red Sox average 5.17 runs per game in Fenway. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies average less than half that, 2.42 runs per game. Antonio Senzatela has reverse-Rockies numbers: 3.83 ERA in Coors Field, 7.15 ERA on the road. Makes no sense. But he’s had 8 home starts and only 3 on the road, so the road sample is too small to be a true barometer. Hopefully he “Senza” message to that effect tonight.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Month

Consider that the over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 games as a favorite and 12-5 in Lightning last 17 games as a road favorite. While the over is  7-3-2 in Hurricanes last 12 games a home underdog.

Rating: 4 Units

Game 7s are typically possession-by-possession affairs with more physicality allowed by the refs, fewer fouls called, more shots challenged… and these two teams have already failed to reach their offensive averages eight of nine (L.A) and six of nine (Dallas) times against each other this season. Only one way for us to see this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers are challenging the Seattle Mariners for fewest hits per game. They average a mere 6.9 hits per game, second-fewest in MLB. The Diamondbacks have hit poorly enough, for a long enough period of time, to have lost 18 of their last 20 games. They will attempt to solve Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.24 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, with 81-7 K-BB in 52 1/3 innings. Good luck to them, for they will need it.

Rating: 2 Units

Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory.

Rating: 4 Units

The wind is still blowing out to left-center field at 12 mph and it’s still humid in San Francisco. Carry, baseball, carry. We called for home runs last night and the Giants hit four of them. Alrighty, then. Last night’s Over winner was 8-5 and we’ll take that again. Or, 5-3 will be fine. The Cubs expect Kohl Stewart to pitch as well as he did last week when they called him up from the minors for his first MLB start since 2019 (5 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball). We don’t. The Giants used Scott Kazmir and five relievers after his 2 innings last night. Kevin Gausman is pitching fine this season but perhaps a little too fine lately: 0 earned runs allowed in his last three starts. He had a 6 IP, 2H, 0 R outing vs. the Dodgers last time out but the bullpen allowed 4 runs in 3 innings after he left. Cubs who have faced Gausman have combined for a .541 Slugging Percentage and .899 OPS against him.

Rating: 2 Units

Once again, I feel that selection offers value. While both teams can score, they're also each extremely stingy. In fact, both teams are allowing an average of 2.3 goals per game. That's tied for the best record in the NHL, in that category. The Avs are allowing a paltry 1.8 goals per game during the playoffs. Factoring in the Game 2 result, the 'under' is now 4-1-1 the past six times that the Knights were trailing in a playoff series. Consider the Under 5.5.

Rating: 2 Units

We won a 2-0 Under game in Max Scherzer’s most recent start, when matched against Brewers’ surging ace righthander Brandon Woodruff, who shut out Scherzer’s light-hitting teammates. Phillies’ righty Zack Wheeler is in as good a groove as Woodruff was coming into that game. His median game length in his last seven starts is 7 innings. His K-BB for the month of May was 57-5. His ERA of 2.52 and WHIP of 0.93 for the season speak for themselves. Scherzer has a mere 4-4 W-L record despite a better ERA and WHIP than Wheeler: 2.34 and 0.82. That’s because the Nationals score only 3.87 runs per game — which includes games against guys who aren’t as good as Woodruff, or Wheeler — and still rank #29 in Hits per Run (2.14).

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox lead the American League Central with a 33-21 record, by 3.5 games over the Indians. However, their hitters have been less effective against right-handed starters, they are 1-7 in games where they’ve been the underdog (which means when facing as good or better pitchers than their own good starting cast), and Cleveland ace righty Shane Bieber is starting against them as the second-place Indians attempt to narrow the standings gap. Chicago’s Dylan Cease seems to be riding an up-curve, currently with the best ERA/WHIP he’s had during his two-plus MLB seasons: 2.98, 1.27. He’ll be pitching to a team averaging only ?? runs per game and is without its regular clean-up hitter Franmil Reyes. Chicago closer Liam Hendriks didn’t pitch during yesterday’s doubleheader split and is fresh, fit, ready to go if/when needed. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland invites shadows to become part of the attendance, which is not what hitters want to see.

Rating: 3 Units

A couple o’ #1 starters face sub-par offenses who average a mere 3.79 and 3.85 runs per game. Those low averages — which rank #23 and #26 in the 30-team entertainment enclave — include games when they aren’t facing #1 starters, or, for that matter, #2 starters. In his five starts in the month of May, 2021, Max Scherzer hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs. His median length is 7 1/3 innings for those five starts, with 47-7 K-BB in 33 1/3 innings. Washington is only 3-2 despite his excellence, having lost 2-1 and 4-3 (the latter in 11 innings, it was 2-1 when Scherzer left in the eighth, 2-2 after nine innings). See? They don’t hit much. Brandon Woodruff’s month of May is as good: also no more than 2 runs allowed in any of five starts, 7 2/3 innings median length, 39-6 K-BB. Milwaukee is only 3-2 despite his excellence because they lost 2-0 shutouts twice. See? They don’t hit much.

Rating: 2 Units

We add the Over with the game shortened to 7 innings because with Matt Harvey starting for Baltimore, the White Sox have an opportunity to get 7 runs on their own before Harvey leaves.

Rating: 4 Units

These are two pretty decent pitchers but the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet has been used sparingly and spottily and hasn’t been going deep into starts, while Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season for the Astros. it’s an Interleague game and managers tend to shake up their rotations and bullpen usage in these instances while hoping their hitters overcome their managerial ways. Both sides hit well enough (#1 5.2 runs per game for the Astros, #10 4.65 runs per game for the Padres to expect their averages, or better, once the starters are out and the relief crews over and done with. The Houston pen isn’t as good as the Milwaukee pen that San Diego just closed a series against.

Rating: 2 Units

A 21 mph wind blows in from center field at Wrigley Field this afternoon. That should keep most if not all the well-struck fly balls in the ballpark. We’ll take a flyer on Cincinnati rookie righthander Vladimir Gutierrez in his MLB debut. He can throw 96 mph, maybe get an extra push on it with the wind at his back. Adbert Alzolay has stuck in the Cubs’ rotation with his 0.86 WHIP. He’s been quite unlucky with a 4.30 ERA, a number you rarely see matched with such a low WHIP. His K-BB is an impressive 45-7 after 44 IP, and he won’t be facing injured Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas in the Reds’ lineup.

Rating: 4 Units

The White Sox were averaging 8.6 runs per game against left-handed starters before going into Yankee Stadium and getting stifled by Jordan Montgomery. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann is a lefty with a 5.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, who they should enjoy teeing off against at home. They’ve supported Dylan Cease with 11-0, 9-0 and 9-3 wins and have the ability to go Over this Total on their own.

Rating: 2 Units

Why leave Citi Field if nobody is forcing us to get out? The Rockies entered last night’s game averaging 2.8 runs per game on the road, got 1 run and 3 hits against 5-inning Jacob deGrom and three Mets’ relievers. The men in Mets uniforms — many of them not supposed to be playing as much as they have been in recent days — continued their string of staying under 4 runs, getting 3. The Mets haven’t scored more than 4 in a nine-inning game since May 12. They got 9 hits, but all season long they’ve been among the worst teams in Hits per Run ratio, currently #28 at 2.13 hits for every run scored. German Marquez and Marcus Stroman are capable veteran pitchers, especially when the opposing lineups don’t have much pop in them. All the best relievers got an unscheduled day of rest yesterday and will be available. As always with these doubleheaders, double-check the times and pitching matchups because 19-year-olds with hardly any experience are posting information in Las Vegas and online, posing as expert insiders.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Week

Consider that the over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game and 10-3 in Penguins last 13 road games. While the over is 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New York.

Rating: 4 Units

Mariners’ touted rookie Logan Gilbert has yet to distinguish himself after two starts that lasted 4, then 2 2/3 innings. He’s allowed 9 hits and 7 runs, facing two of the American League’s weakest hitting lineups, Cleveland and Detroit, at home. He may not be ready for prime time. Doubts about the Oakland pitching staff linger. Cole Irvin has been a regular in the rotation but after striking out 9 Blue Jays in an 8-inning start on May 4, he has thrown 17 2/3 innings in three starts since, whiffing a total of only 6.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the under is 7-2-1 in Hurricanes last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, 13-5-2 in Hurricanes last 20 games as a home favorite, and 7-3 in Hurricanes last 10 home games. Also the Under is 9-3 in Predators last 12 vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4-2 in Predators last 17 games as an underdog. In addition, the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Carolina and 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Rating: 4 Units

The Braves rid themselves of Charlie Morton batting in favor of a DH. Charlie Morton pitching hasn’t exactly been the Charlie Morton of recent seasons. He had four straight sub-par outings allowing 5,4, 6 and 3 runs in no more than 5 1/3 innings (and as little as 2/3 of an inning) before beating the Mets with 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball last week. The Mets are pulling people off the street to hit the danged ball, so that effort by no means suggests that Charlie Morton of Astros and Rays post-season fame will be showing up in this ballpark tonight. Garrett Richards and Fenway Park aren’t getting along very well just yet. He has a 7.11 ERA in it after three starts, 12 1/3 innings in which opposing batters have 16 hits, scored 10 runs and are hitting .320 against him.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

The Padres had the pleasure of facing the weakened Mariners bullpen over the weekend. Milwaukee’s is full strength and better to begin with. Nobody’s pen has been better than San Diego’s. So, you have two good bullpens behind two good starters. Brewers hitters have 0 home runs, a measly .185 Slugging Percentage and 1 RBI against Blake Snell in 39 at-bats against him. Padres hitters have 0 home runs, a .195 Slugging Percentage and only 4 RBI in 43 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who enters with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 65-14 K-BB in 57 innings pitched. Snell has 60 Ks in 40 IP.

Rating: 2 Units

Trevor Rogers is becoming a folk hero in Miami with his 6-2 won-loss record from nine starts,1.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, and 65-19 K-BB in 51 2/3 innings. Rogers has allowed a total of only 3 home runs, and more than 2 runs in a game just once, when he gave up 3 in a 3-1 loss. He has won three shutouts, and then his last three outings by 3-1, 5-1 and 6-1 scores. We were on him in the 3-1 win, noting that while the Phillies got 9 hits and 9 runs in 3 innings against him in a game last season, he’d improved dramatically since then. Meanwhile, only one MLB starter has a K-BB Ratio better than Zach Eflin’s 11.4 to 1. That would be Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole (11.5 to 1). For further purposes of comparison, the fine pitcher we’re on in the game above, John Means, has a 5.36 to 1 K-BB Ratio

Rating: 4 Units

Again, as was the case for yesterday’s Over, the Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. Although Yu Darvish is an ace capable of pitching a shutout against the team that gets the fewest hits per game in what you call your Major League Baseball, the Padres are capable of exceeding this Total on their own. Justin Dunn isn’t likely to give them more than 5 innings. He walks too many (22 in 32 IP). The Mariners’ bullpen is stocked with minor league call-ups for the next seven days. And after Darvish exits, the Padres can afford to use ‘B’ relievers with a lead in an Interleague game.

Rating: 4 Units

The Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. The non-infected crew rose to the occasion here last night by… allowing 8 runs after starter Chris Flexen choked and allowed 8 of his own in 1 2/3 innings! Justus Sheffield is always an accident waiting to happen and even if he does well, the Seattle bullpen situation is not good. This is one of those instances where the Padres seem like they can exceed the Total on their own. It’s an Inter-league game, so the ‘A’ bullpen guys wouldn’t necessarily need to be called upon after Weathers’ night is done after probably no more than 5 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox reward for hammering the heck out of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola and the bullpen last night is to step in against Spencer Howard. This guy owes us money. He spent most of his rookie 2020 season giving the Phillies deficits to overcome, following big hype that wasn’t met. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts for them last season. So far, they’ve let him throw just 4 1/3 innings this season and he’s allowed 4 runs on 6 hits. The Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi is having a decent enough season but as a fastball pitcher with good control, you can’t help but see 2 homers coming from Bryce Harper, who’s hitting .381 against Eovaldi. Hoskins, Joyce, McCutcheon and Segura are at .333, .300, .429 and .333 against him.

Rating: 4 Units

After pounding out 20 runs on 20 hits to do a psyche job against the Pirates pitching staff last night, the Braves only need to face Mitch Keller today. The Braves have been woeful against left-handed pitching but pretty good against righties. The Pirates’ righty Keller has a 7.16 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Arrgh. Atlanta’s Bryse Wilson still hasn’t approached that 6 inning, 1-hit job he threw in the post-season vs. the Dodgers. His ERA is 5.50, his WHIP 1.61.

Rating: 4 Units

If their average holds, then the White Sox would go Over this total on their own. They average 8.6 runs per game when the other teams starts a lefty (Montgomery). Of course, they haven’t gotten all these runs against lefty starters. They do pretty well against right-handed relievers, too. The White Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs per game on the road, 5.9. Carlos Rodon has a no-hitter to his credit and is enjoying a nice comeback season but there is a lot of right-handed power in the Yankees lineup for this lefty to tap-dance around.

Rating: 4 Units

With no DH, the Orioles, who have dipped to an average of only 3.91 runs per game, must face Steven Strasburg in his first start off the injured list. The last time Strasburg pitched fresh, he went 6 innings and allowed 1 hit to Atlanta. Good luck… some other time. The Orioles are visiting an opponent who is also in the Sub-4 Runs Per Game Club (3.85) and before the Nationals hitters figure out Jorge Lopez, he could be outta there.

Rating: 4 Units MLB Play of the Day

The Astros are hitting .284 vs. left-handed pitching, third highest in MLB with the third highest OPS. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin has been pitching well lately, getting his ERA down from 7.45 after two starts to 3.02 entering this game. However, the 7.45 after two starts was totally against the Astros’ lineup, against whom he totaled 9 2/3 innings while giving up 8 runs and 12 hits, whiffing only 5. So, good luck to him… some other time, of course. The Astros are awaiting the return of Framber Valdez to their rotation and until then, they must make do with a guy like second-season spot starter Luis Garcia in the rotation. He’s been doing fine but he is only 47 1/3 innings into his Major League career.

Rating: 2 Units

There has been a 12-14 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field and the nervous linemaker overreacted yesterday, making a rather high number of 9 for last night’s match-up between classy, veteran righthanders, Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta. The teams combined for only 7 runs. Today, in full daylight, ‘The Man’ adds only 1 run to his Total as the starters change to non-classy, younger righthanders Joe Ross (Ooh! Ooh!) and Trevor Williams. Ross didn’t play last season and before that, going back three seasons, had ERA/WHIPs of 5.48/1.67, 5.06/1.31, 5.01/1.47. The Nationals allowed him to return to them despite this display of below-averageness, and he is giving them more of the same: 5.80/1.46. Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo are thinking, ‘Gee, wish we coulda faced this guy last year!’ as they carry .500, .500 and .417 Batting Average Against Ross into today’s game, in limited opportunities of course (6, 4, 12 at-bats). Meanwhile, the one-year contract of Chicago’s Trevor Williams is proving to be one of the worst $2.5 million investments in the history of mankind, with his 6.27 ERA and 1.82 WHIP after 8 starts, in which he has pitched a total of only 33 innings (that’s an average of 4 innings per start). And they charge people money to get through the gates to watch him.

Rating: 2 Units

Taking nothing away from the performance of Colorado goaltender Philipp Grubauer, but the Blues didn’t generate many scoring opportunities in Game 1. Vladimir Tarasenko had a couple of prime opportunities in the first period but couldn’t convert, then the rest of the time the Aves did a tremendous job of clearing the puck out of their zone in quick fashion. The Blues are also expected to be without David Perron again, as he remains on the COVID-19 list. St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong released a statement on Wednesday that stated the team had “discovered discrepancies in Covid test results relating to multiple players” and is working with the league to address said discrepancies. Whether or not that means Perron will be cleared to play by game time is not known, but assuming he’s out again, the Blues will struggle offensively. Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington was sensational in net for the Blues in Game 1. I expect the Blues to tighten things up defensively in front of Binnington tonight but even if they don’t, he has proven to raise his level of play in the postseason. I’m confident he’ll play well again tonight.

Rating: 4 Units

The Blue Jays held up their end of the bargain last night with 8 runs in their home park, where they’d entered averaging 6.14. But the Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw. Some of them had handled Hyun-Jin Ryu in the past. But last night, they did not. Running into Ross Stripling can hopefully offset last night’s blanking. Stripling has yet to show that switching from the National League to the American will be good for him, with a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far, only 21 1/3 IP from five starts. Last season he pitched 15 2/3 innings for Toronto after getting traded to them, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not lookin’ good for the guy.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have only 8 hits in 60 at-bats against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. The guys with the most at-bats against him — Trey Mancini and Pedro Severino — are hitting .143 and .167 against him. The Rays’ pen is the Ray’s pen — reliable. Baltimore starter John Means has been consistently good. Some guys follow up no-hitters by giving up 5 runs in 5 innings and losing. He followed up on his with 6 innings of shutout ball at the Mets. They’re giving him eight days in between starts just to be cautious with a guy they consider a #1 starter, who has three seasons remaining before he can be a free agent. His ERA is 1.21, his WHIP 0.71. He is striking out more than 1 batter per inning. The Rays strike out a lot. He beat them 2-1 here last September.

Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Week

Consider that the over is 18-5-3 in Capitals last 26 games playing on 1 days rest and 6-2-1 in Capitals last 9 games as a road underdog. While the over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 home games