02-09-25 |
Raptors v. Rockets OVER 223 |
|
87-94 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Injuries have begun to mount once again as the Raptors have lost three-straight. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl have both been ruled out of this one. Both missed Saturday's 12-point loss at Oklahoma City. Toronto's best chance for success in this matchup is probably to run as much as possible. Even though Houston is at home, the Raptors have the travel and rest advantage. Toronto's last four games have all gone over the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total. During this current six-game losing streak, the Rockets have given up an average of 116 points per game.
|
02-08-25 |
St. Mary's v. Oregon State UNDER 130.5 |
|
63-49 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Gaels get an offensive rebound on 40.9-percent of their missed shots, which is nearly 11-percent above the national average. But the point remains: The reason they get so many second-chance opportunities is because they miss so many shots to begin with. In Thursday's loss to the Dons, Saint Mary's shot 3-for-23 from three-point range. The Gaels are outside the top-165 in three-point shooting, two-point shooting and free throw shooting. Both teams are bottom-30 in the country in adjusted tempo. Oregon State's rotation features several players that are at least 6-foot-9 to limit the Gaels' second-chance points. The Beavers are a very good defensive rebounding team. The under is 5-1 in Saint Mary's last six games.
|
02-08-25 |
Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 242 |
|
125-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder are 7-2-1 to the “over” across their last ten games with the Grizzlies 10-3 to the “over” across their last 13 with Memphis also sitting 7-4 to the “over” with a rest advantage which they’ll have tonight. Sure, the total only landed at 236 in their first head-to-head meeting but the Grizzlies were playing without Ja Morant as the team coughed the ball up 21 times which we don’t see happening tonight. Memphis still runs at the fastest pace in the league with OKC sitting 12th in pace so look for a high scoring showdown in Memphis between the Thunder and Grizzlies tonight.
|
02-08-25 |
BYU v. Cincinnati OVER 139.5 |
|
66-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Playing at home, you have to assume that Cincinnati's role players will find a little more success on offense in this one. We're not sure, however, that Cincinnati will have the proper answers on defense. BYU is top-20 in the country in offensive efficiency, effective field goal shooting, two-point shooting and assist rate. The Cougars are shooting 37.2-percent from three-point range in conference play while shooting the highest volume of attempts from beyond the arc. BYU's last seven games have seen an average of 154 points per game, and that includes the 52-point performance by Cincinnati two weeks ago. It would take another dreadful shooting performance to keep this one under the total.
|
02-08-25 |
Pacers v. Lakers UNDER 231 |
|
117-124 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We’re going to look towards an “under” result with LA sitting as the top rated defensive team across their past 10 games and the Pacers sitting ninth during that stretch. Indiana has gone “under” or pushed in their last three games and although LA has gone “over” in four of their last five games, James has averaged 31 ppg during that span and will have to do their best to replace his offensive production in the lineup today. As a road favorite, the Pacers are 8-4 to the “under” with the Lakers going 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog. Look for points to come at a premium in today’s non-conference bout between the Pacers and Lakers as both teams look to overcome crucial injuries in their respective starting lineups.
|
02-07-25 |
USC v. Purdue OVER 146 |
|
72-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 45 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Trojans are outside the top-300 in three-point attempts, and we like that formula on the road in the Big Ten. Made three-pointers only account for 26.4-percent of USC's points this season, which is also outside the top-300. That formula has been working. When you run your offense through the interior and you don't rely on outside shooting, the hostile road environments in the Big Ten are a little less hostile. USC has scored an average of 77.8 points in five conference road games, while picking up wins at Washington, Illinois and Nebraska. The over is 8-1 in USC's last nine games. The over has cashed in each of Purdue's last four games.
|
02-06-25 |
Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 214.5 |
|
114-127 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets are averaging just 106 ppg across their last five and both teams sitting top six in defensive efficiency on the season. Both also rank top eight in fewest fast break points allowed on the season with Minnesota running at a bottom five pace on the season as well. Randle and Donte DiVincenzo who will also miss this game scored 49 of the team’s 113 total points in their last head-to-head matchup with Fred VanVleet scoring 18 on Houston’s side who will miss tonight as well. Look for defense to take precedence in Minnesota tonight.
|
02-06-25 |
Mavs v. Celtics OVER 229.5 |
|
127-120 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Dallas is 7-1 to the “over” and Boston 5-3 to the “over” across their last eight games respectively. When playing as a road underdog the Mavericks are 12-5 to the “over” on the season with these two combining to go 20-13 to the “over” in non-conference games. Sure, the Mavericks sit 13th in defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last 10 games specifically they rank 25th in defensive rating. Dallas runs at a top ten pace and they may want to run fast tonight, especially with how thin they are in the front court. Look for a high-scoring output in Boston tonight for their non-conference showdown against Boston.
|
02-06-25 |
Western Kentucky v. Kennesaw State OVER 156 |
|
69-76 |
Loss |
-116 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Owls and Hilltoppers combined to miss 17 free throws in that one. Kennesaw shot 8-for-41 (19.5-percent) from three-point range. The Owls started the game 4-for-20 from the floor and did not cross the double-digit point mark until there was eight minutes remaining in the first half. Playing at home in the rematch should help to settle some of those shooting woes. In conference play, Kennesaw State is scoring an average of 75.4 points per game at home compared to 72 points per game on the road.
|
02-05-25 |
Creighton v. Providence UNDER 143.5 |
|
80-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 0 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Friars are turning the ball over on 20.3-percent of their possessions in conference play. Sitting at 11-11 on the season, second-year head coach Kim English has begun the youth movement. This season was supposed to be built around Player of the Year candidate Bryce Hopkins, but he's only played in three games all season after a failed return from a knee injury. Kalkbrenner is likely going to enjoy his interior matchup against freshmen Oswin Erhunmwunse and Ryan Mela. We're expecting this game to be played in the post and not with 14 made three-pointers like the first one. Four of Creighton's last five games have stayed under the total.
|
02-05-25 |
Spurs v. Hawks OVER 242 |
|
126-125 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs and Hawks are a combined 21-13 to the “over” in non-conference games this season with Atlanta specifically running at the second fastest pace. Both teams rank bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency with Trae Young scoring 34 points in back-to-back games leading into this one. The Spurs are 9-6 to the “over” when listed as a favorite which will be the case tonight so look for tons of points to be scored in Atlanta for Spurs vs Hawks as Fox looks to fit in with the Spurs rotation.
|
02-04-25 |
Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220.5 |
|
122-97 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games with the Lakers going 4-1 to the “over” across their last five. Sure, both teams run at a slow pace but both rank in the top half of the league in fast break points per game and both rank bottom half at defending the fast break. It’s worth noting that Maxi Kleber isn’t listed on the injury report and should make his Lakers debut tonight, adding a three-point shooting threat off the bench. Take the “over” in tonight’s Lakers vs Clippers showdown.
|
02-04-25 |
Mavs v. 76ers OVER 226 |
|
116-118 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both our power ratings and game line both list the 76ers as 1-2 point favorites. Sure, Philadelphia has been in solid form as of late, but their 6-0 ATS run came all listed as an underdog as they’ve gone 7-11 ATS as a favorite on the season. With all the injury concerns heading in, we’re going to play on the “over” in this game with Dallas 6-1 to the “over” across their last seven and Philadelphia 6-2 to the “over” across their last eight. Both Philadelphia and Dallas rank bottom six in defensive rating across their last six games with the Mavericks going 11-5 to the “over” as a road underdog on the season. In non-conference games these two have combined to go 22-9-2 to the “over” on the season so let’s look for another “over” result in Philadelphia tonight.
|
02-03-25 |
Kings v. Wolves OVER 221.5 |
|
116-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Kings have allowed 126 ppg during their trip and 235 ppg scored during the first three head-to-head matchups between these two teams. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” in their last six games respectively so let’s look for another “over” result in Minnesota tonight with Sacramento 7-4 to the “over” as a road underdog this season.
|
02-03-25 |
Rockets v. Knicks OVER 223.5 |
|
118-124 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets are 7-3 to the “over” when listed as a road underdog. The Knicks sit first in offensive rating across their past ten games with the Rockets sitting 13th during that span. Although Houston sits third in defensive efficiency on the season, they sit just 22nd in defensive rating across their last ten games. Both teams last played Saturday and when on equal rest, the Knicks are 18-10 to the “over” on the season. Look for abundant scoring to occur at MSG for this matchup tonight.
|
02-03-25 |
Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 130 |
|
73-57 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Last year’s meeting saw these two teams produce a combined 137 points to hit the over against a 122-point total. Things have been boosted up a bit this time around, due to Pittsburgh’s offense being more boisterous. Virginia would seem to be the issue once again here, but they have enjoyed some of their best offenses efforts of the season over their last few weeks. They averaged 72.3 points over their last four games and scored a season-high 82 points just two games ago. Pittsburgh’s offense has been very consistent, scoring between 78-70 points in each of their last six games. Noted above, they have plenty of guys who can take the ball and score it, so they shouldn’t have any issues doing their part. The over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two. Take the over.
|
02-02-25 |
Bradley v. Northern Iowa OVER 139 |
|
69-83 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units When you get teams like Bradley, Belmont, Indiana State and Northern Iowa together, you usually get a discount on the total because these teams have been dragged down by the slow-pokes of the league. Bradley has played Indiana State twice, and those games have seen 179 and 183 points. Bradley and Northern Iowa have each played Belmont this season, and those games have seen 146 and 166 points. When you put the right teams together, you usually get some entertaining affairs in this league. We're expecting that to be the case today.
|
02-02-25 |
Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 221 |
|
108-115 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Three of the last four meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Powell is averaging 24.1 points per game this season. He was 11-for-15 from the floor with 27 points in Friday's win over the Hornets. His absence is going to be felt in this one. During this impressive nine-game run from the Raptors, the under is 7-2 as Toronto has held those nine opponents to an average of 104.7 points per game.
|
02-01-25 |
Utah v. Oklahoma State OVER 148.5 |
|
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Utes only scored nine points over the last eight minutes of the game as they took the air out of the ball in the second half. The Utes and Cowboys combined to miss 17 free throws, and we still saw 145 points in that contest. Any mild improvement from the three-point line or the free throw line should be enough to push this second meeting over the total. Oklahoma State's offense has been notably better at home compared to on the road. The Cowboys scored 79 against Kansas State, 83 against Colorado and 78 against Arizona at home. Anything in that neighborhood on Saturday should be enough to send this game over the depressed total.
|
01-31-25 |
Bucks v. Spurs OVER 234.5 |
|
118-144 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have gone 8-2 to the “over” across their last ten games with San Antonio sitting 7-4 to the “over” in non-conference games on the season. The Spurs have allowed 128 ppg across their last five games with Milwaukee ranking fourth in effective field goal percentage on the season. Look for points to be scored in tonight’s Bucks vs Spurs clash in San Antonio.
|
01-31-25 |
Yale v. Princeton OVER 147.5 |
|
77-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs' most-used lineup features four players at 6-foot-6 or taller, which can be a matchup nightmare in the Ivy League. Princeton's roster is outside the top-300 in KenPom's height metric. Yale is going to be able to crash the offensive boards and generate second-chance opportunities. Princeton is going to be able to generate a lot of three-point opportunities. Over 40-percent of the Tigers' points this season have come from the three-point line, which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. Both offenses should enjoy success in this matchup.
|
01-30-25 |
Oregon v. UCLA UNDER 140.5 |
|
52-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The college basketball landscape is ever-changing, but UCLA's Mick Cronin and Oregon's Dana Altman are staples at their respective programs. Because these teams play multiple times per year, let's focus on the second meeting each season after they have already seen each other once. Since 2022, the second meeting of the season has produced 131, 133 and 134 points. With some film to work with, both coaches are very good at making the necessary adjustments toward shutting down the opponent in the rematch. We believe that will be the case again today.
|
01-30-25 |
Memphis v. Tulane OVER 151 |
|
68-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Memphis is off to a 6-1 start in conference play, but the Tigers have one glaring weakness: Turnovers. Memphis is No. 327 in turnover rate this season, giving the ball away on over 20-percent of its possessions. It's actually a problem that has progressively gotten worse over the course of the season. When filtering to just conference games, the Tigers' turnover rate is even higher. Tulane is certainly equipped to take advantage of that. The Tigers' defense is also due for some regression at the three-point line. Conference opponents are only shooting 27.6-percent from three-point range against Memphis, which is six-percent below the national average. Eventually, someone is going to hit some shots against the Tigers' defense. Based on prior results, Tulane looks to be a good candidate. We're seeing too big of an adjustment from last season's closing totals.
|
01-30-25 |
Portland State v. Montana UNDER 146.5 |
|
78-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units In this Portland State Vikings vs Montana Grizzlies Prediction, Montana is coming as -3.5 home favorites. The Grizzlies are almost perfect at home this season and have been dominating the Vikings in recent years. Both teams have been playing very good basketball lately and are involved in some lower-scoring games, as they are 10-3 to the under in their last 13 games combined. I expect another low-scoring affair, so take the under.
|
01-29-25 |
Wolves v. Suns UNDER 218 |
|
121-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams play at a bottom ten pace with Phoenix an NBA best in “under” results against conference opponents at 16-9 and second best when playing at home going 16-7 to the “under”. On offense both of these teams rank bottom ten in fast break points per game and both are bottom half of the league in turnover ratio, but it doesn’t look like it will convert to a high scoring game tonight with both teams sitting bottom half of the league in points off turnovers on the season. Look for defense to be at the forefront tonight in Phoenix as they go for their fifth straight “under” result.
|
01-29-25 |
Duquesne v. St. Joe's OVER 137.5 |
|
72-76 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units While Duquesne's offense has taken a step back from the prior two seasons, so has the defense. Duquesne's defense is No. 300 in free throw attempts allowed, and opponents are shooting 36.4-percent from three-point range against the Dukes (nearly three percent above the national average). Both teams shoot a high-volume of three-point attempts. Using season-long numbers, we can understand why this total is where it is. But Duquesne's offense is playing better since its 2-8 start. Neither team had a very good shooting night in their first meeting (Saint Joe's missed nine free throws), and we still saw 146 points in regulation.
|
01-29-25 |
Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 144 |
|
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hokies are No. 330 in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 20.5-percent of their possessions this season. Florida State's length is a nightmare matchup for 5-foot-11 guard Ben Hammond and 6-foot-1 guard Brandon Rechsteiner. Virginia Tech is No. 310 in adjusted tempo this season. In conference play, the Hokies are using an average of 19.2 seconds per possession. Five of Virginia Tech's last six games have stayed under the total.
|
01-29-25 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 134.5 |
|
82-71 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Miami's defense has been particularly problematic, ranking 345th out of 364 teams in defensive rating according to KenPom, and allowing 80.6 points per game. Their offense has been more respectable, averaging 75.7 points per game and ranking 58th by KenPom.
|
01-28-25 |
Bucks v. Blazers OVER 228.5 |
|
112-125 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games as the only two “under” results came with totals listed at 248 and 239.5 and tonight’s total listed at 229. The Warriors are 5-1 to the “over” across their last six games and 11-6 to the “over” when listed as a home favorite with Utah sitting at 16-9 to the “over” when playing on the road. The Jazz have averaged 113.5 points per game during their losing streak as we’d only need them to reach 110 points tonight for the “over” to hit which we think they can do against a Warriors defense that’s currently struggling.
|
01-28-25 |
Providence v. Seton Hall UNDER 133.5 |
|
69-67 |
Loss |
-125 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Friars' offense is No. 10 in the 11-team Big East in turnover rate. We're going to focus on the first half under in this contest, testing to see how well Providence responds to the Georgetown hangover. The Friars actually beat the Hoyas three times last season. In the three games following those twins, Providence scored an average of 28.3 points in the first half of the following game. Seton Hall's offense is No. 326 in effective field goal shooting, No. 307 in turnover rate, No. 352 in two-point shooting and No. 352 in two-point shooting. The Pirates are bottom-20 in the country in three-point attempts, so we shouldn't have to worry about a three-point contest breaking out in this one.
|
01-28-25 |
South Carolina v. Georgia OVER 131.5 |
|
60-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have some major issues on offense, but this total is just too low in our opinion. These teams met twice last year and both games would have cleared this 132 total that we're seeing on Tuesday morning, including a 61-possession contest in Athens that was played at a snail's pace. Assuming this total stays in the 132 neighborhood, this will be by-far the lowest total that either team has seen this season. In fact, Georgia has only played in one game all season with a total below 140 (vs Tennessee). We understand the sentiment behind the low total and these two teams are very unlikely to explode into the 80s, but with Thomas returning for the Gamecocks, this total is too low.
|
01-27-25 |
UCLA v. USC UNDER 139.5 |
|
82-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units UCLA went 9-for-17 (52.9-percent) from beyond the arc against Washington on Friday, and we still only saw 125 points in that contest. Both teams have played really good, fast-paced offenses in recent weeks (Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc.), and most of those games have gone over the total - The over has cashed in each of USC's last six games, and the over is 5-1 in UCLA's last six. In our opinion, those results are inflating the number for this one. With Bilodeau's status in question, look for Coach Cronin to go back to his defensive roots and turn this game into a slow grind.
|
01-27-25 |
Incarnate Word v. New Orleans OVER 149.5 |
|
74-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The over has cashed in four of Incarnate Word's last five games. In the 12-team Southland Conference, Incarnate Word is No. 11 in defensive efficiency, last in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 11 in three-point shooting allowed and No. 11 in two-point shooting allowed. New Orleans is last in defensive efficiency, No. 10 in effective field goal shooting allowed, last in offensive rebounds allowed and No. 10 in two-point shooting allowed while playing at the fastest pace in the league. Don't expect to see a defensive masterpiece in this one.
|
01-26-25 |
Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 149.5 |
|
74-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The total closed at 142 in that matchup, and we only saw 112 points in regulation. So why has Sunday's total opened six points higher than that? Ivisic had 15 points and five assists in that first meeting, which is a healthy chunk of production that the Illini need to replace on offense. Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. In the 18-team Big Ten, Northwestern's offense ranks No. 15 in efficiency, No. 15 in effective field goal shooting, No. 16 in three-point shooting and No. 15 in two-point shooting. Much like yesterday's UCF vs TCU contest, KenPom, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics all project this game to comfortably under the 148 number that we’re seeing this morning.
|
01-25-25 |
Kings v. Knicks UNDER 234 |
|
120-143 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Knicks are 6-1 to the “under” off 2-3 days of rest and 8-2-1 to the “under” with a rest advantage this season. Sure, the Kings have gone “over” in five of their last six games, but they’re 7-5-2 to the “under” in non-conference games and of those last five games, all teams they played rank top half of the league in pace with New York ranking 27th in pace on the season heading. The Knicks should command the pace in this one and they’ve gone “under” in three straight so let’s look at the “under” to occur once again at MSG tonight.
|
01-25-25 |
Western Kentucky v. Sam Houston State OVER 153.5 |
|
75-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Western Kentucky's defense allows a high-volume of three-point attempts, but no one has been able to make them against the Hilltoppers. Nearly 45-percent of opponents' field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, which is almost six-percent above the national average. But opponents are only making 29.3-percent of those, which is bottom-20 in the country. Sam Houston fits the profile of a team that can make the Hilltoppers' defense pay from the three-point line. Both of last year's meetings cleared 150 points. When these teams met in Huntsville last season, Sam Houston missed ten of its first 12 shots from the floor. Western Kentucky missed 12 of its first 15 shots from the floor. That game still finished with 152 points. If we can avoid another slow start like that, this game should soar over the total.
|
01-24-25 |
Penn State v. Iowa UNDER 169.5 |
|
75-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes have had issues with defending the three-point line, as conference opponents are shooting 41-percent from beyond the arc against Iowa. Penn State is unlikely to take advantage of that weakness. Only 26.1-percent of Penn State's points come from the three-point line, which is No. 314 in the country. These teams have produced some very entertaining games in recent seasons, and Friday's contest is likely to join that group. But a lot of things have to go right for a game to eclipse 169 points, and there's simply no wiggle room for a slow start or a two-minute stretch with some missed shots.
|
01-24-25 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 245 |
|
126-139 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Sure these two both sit top six in “over” results this season, but the Pelicans haven’t seen a total this high aside from their Jan 14th win over Chicago where the total was 243 and went “under” by 11 points. Memphis did win 132-124 last time these two played but they went a combined 58-64 from the free throw line and we don’t anticipate that many free throws being attempted again tonight as they only combine to shoot 45 free throws per game on the season. We’re sure to see some scoring but outside of DeJounte Murray, C.J. McCollum and Trey Murphy III, it’s tough to tell where offense will come from on the New Orleans side.
|
01-24-25 |
Michigan v. Purdue OVER 151.5 |
|
64-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We're looking at a lower number on Friday night, despite massive improvements from the Wolverines' offense from last year to this year. The maize-and-blue went from No. 95 in offensive efficiency last year to No. 14 this year. The Wolverines were using 17.8 seconds per possession last year, and they have shaved that down to 15.5 seconds this year. Michigan shot 49.5-percent from two-point range last year, and the Wolverines are No. 3 in the country and 60.8-percent this year. So Michigan's offense has seen massive improvements while playing faster, yet this total is actually lower than the same matchup in the same location at the same time of year in 2024.
|
01-23-25 |
Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 |
|
96-117 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We’ll look at an “under” play with Boston going 13-6 to the “under” as a road favorite this season. Both teams rank outside the top ten in offensive rating their last five games with the Lakers specifically ranking 22nd and both playing at a bottom ten pace as well. The Celtics rank dead last in fast break points per game on offense and are sixth in fewest allowed on defense. It’s also worth noting that LA ranks top ten in fewest three-point field goal attempts per game with both ranking top four in fewest free throw attempts per game as well so points coming while the clock is stopped will be at a premium. Take the “under” in LA tonight.
|
01-23-25 |
Heat v. Bucks OVER 225 |
|
96-125 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Miami has gone “over” in four straight with Milwaukee going “over” in six-straight which is the play we’ll recommend here tonight. Miami ranks bottom five in defensive rating across their last five games with Milwaukee playing at a top 10 pace in which we’ll likely see a fast tempo with the Bucks getting tons of rest before tonight. Milwaukee ranks third in offensive rating their last five games and although the Heat won’t have Butler, some other role players are starting to get more comfortable on offense including Kel’el Ware who has scored 25 and 20 points respectively across his last two games while averaging 7.7 ppg this season and Duncan Robinson scoring 21 and 22 his past two games while averaging 11 ppg on the season.
|
01-23-25 |
NC-Wilmington v. College of Charleston UNDER 153.5 |
|
85-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The under has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these rivals. The first meeting last year stayed comfortably under the total as Wilmington earned a nine-point home win. The 154 points that we saw in the second meeting deserves a big asterisk. There were 141 points scored after 39 minutes, and 13 points scored in the final 49 seconds as Charleston desperately tried to extend the game through fouling and quick scores. If we can avoid a scenario like that on Thursday, we anticipate another low-scoring affair between these familiar foes.7
|
01-22-25 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 230.5 |
|
117-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are 5-2 to the “under” across their past seven with both teams ranking top 10 in fewest fast break points allowed per game and both bottom 10 in fast break points scored on offense per game. Both teams sit within a game of each other in the highly contested Pacific Division and although Golden State is shorthanded and enduring a tough stretch, they’ll bring the defense out tonight with these two combining to go 9-7 to the “under” in divisional matchups on the season.
|
01-22-25 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 |
|
115-114 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams rank top 10 in defensive efficiency and outside of Kyrie Irving, it’s tough to tell where offense may come from tonight on the Dallas side. He had 33 points last game with Daniel Gafford scoring 31 but the Mavs big man averages just 12 ppg on the season so we don’t expect another high scoring performance from him, especially with Minnesota ranking top 10 in fewest points in the paint allowed per game. Dallas is 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog and Minnesota 9-7 to the “under” as a road favorite so we expect points to come at a premium in Dallas tonight.
|
01-22-25 |
Murray State v. Southern Illinois OVER 137 |
|
74-64 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Racers have not done much racing over the last two seasons because this iteration of Murray State is playing at the slowest tempo of any Steve Prohm-coached team. When he was at Iowa State, Coach Prohm's Cyclones were routinely top-100 in pace. Over the last two seasons, Murray State has gone 22-29 so this adjustment to a slower playing style has not worked. The over is 7-4 in Murray State's last 11 games. Playing with a bit more confidence on offense, look for Southern Illinois to push the pace and help get this final score over the total.
|
01-21-25 |
76ers v. Nuggets OVER 229.5 |
|
109-144 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia now sits as the worst ATS team in the NBA so let’s recommend a play on the “over” with these two combining to go 22-6-2 to the “over” in non-conference games with Denver specifically going 13-2 to the “over”. Philadelphia is 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games and while Denver leads the league in fast break points on offense, they also allow the fourth most fast break points on defense which bodes well for Tyrese Maxey averaging 31 ppg across his past seven games. It’s also worth noting that Denver is 16-9 to the “over” after a win which will be the case tonight.
|
01-21-25 |
Knicks v. Nets OVER 218.5 |
|
99-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams rank bottom ten in defensive efficiency with the Nets ranking top 10 in three pointers made per game and the Knicks ranking second to last in three-point percentage allowed on defense. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games respectively and although both rank bottom five in pace, Brooklyn may want to crank up the tempo knowing the Knicks are playing on tired legs tonight. New York is 16-10-1 to the “over” so let’s look for some points in Brooklyn as these cross-town rivals go at it once again.
|
01-20-25 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 |
|
125-85 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This will be Boston’s fourth game in their last six days, coming off a 119-115 overtime loss to Atlanta at home. It’s worth noting Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play in that game with no injury designation heading into today. The Warriors defeated the Celtics 118-112 in Boston back on Nov. 6 but Boston didn’t have Jaylen Brown and Porzingis for that matchup. Our power ratings favor Golden State but with so many injury concerns on their side we’re going to look at an “under” result with Boston going 12-5 to the “under” as a road favorite on the season. Golden State is 4-1 to the “under” as a home underdog and are 4-2 to the “under” across their last six games. The Celtics are 6-2 to the “under” across their last eight games with both teams sitting top 10 in defensive efficiency heading into their matchup today.
|
01-20-25 |
New Orleans v. Northwestern State OVER 143 |
|
61-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Nearly every New Orleans game with a total in the mid-140s like we have today has gone over the number. Opponents are only using 16.0 seconds per possession against the Privateers' defense, which is the seventh-fastest mark in the country. Per KenPom, New Orleans is bottom-10 in the country in average height and bottom-10 in allowing offensive rebounds. New Orleans is forced to do everything through speed and the perimeter. Northwestern State swept this series last year, scoring an average of 81 points in those two games. We're expecting a similar high-scoring outcome
|
01-19-25 |
Bulls v. Blazers UNDER 238 |
|
102-113 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Portland's Jerami Grant returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing the Blazers' last nine games. Grant struggled to shake off the rust, scoring just seven points with three turnovers in 25 minutes against the Rockets. We're going to look toward the under in this contest. The Bulls' last three road games have each stayed under the total. This will be the Blazers' seventh back-to-back of the season. In the second leg of the previous six, the under has gone 4-2. The Blazers are bottom-5 in the league in offensive efficiency this season.
|
01-19-25 |
Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 216 |
|
102-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Look at the point totals from teams making their first trip to the Intuit Dome. Brooklyn scored 67 points on Wednesday. Miami scored 98 on Monday. Since December 1, only one team has hit the 110-point mark at the Intuit Dome (Houston on December 8). Golden State, Orlando, Sacramento and Philadelphia were all held below 100 points in their first trip to the new arena. The under is 10-3 in the Clippers' last 13 games.
|
01-19-25 |
Nets v. Thunder OVER 216 |
|
101-127 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder shot 43-percent from three-point range in that contest, but just 15-for-45 from two-point range. Dallas out-scored Oklahoma City 22-2 in fast-break points and 36-22 in points in the paint. Prior to that, Oklahoma City's last five games had all gone over the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Prior to that stumble, the Thunder had scored at least 118 points in each of their previous five games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed that contest against the Mavericks, which was his first missed game of the season. He is questionable to return on Sunday. After a promising start to the season, Brooklyn's defense is now on the cusp of entering the bottom-5 in the league.
|
01-19-25 |
La Salle v. Massachusetts UNDER 158.5 |
|
60-82 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Over 23-percent of UMass' points this season have come from the free throw line. La Salle head coach Fran Dunphy has been around for a long time, and we have a hard time seeing his Explorers getting dragged into a similar contest with UMass. In A-10 play, Coach Dunphy has essentially trimmed his roster to a seven-man rotation. With a thin bench, La Salle can't afford to get into a free throw shooting contest with UMass. Let's see how much Rivera and Diggins have in the tank after both played 48 minutes on Wednesday.
|
01-19-25 |
Tulane v. Temple OVER 148 |
|
77-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units It's still early, but Temple is playing at the fastest pace in the AAC. Conference opponents are only shooting 64.5-percent from the free throw line against Temple, so there is still room for some more points to be scored against the Owls. Memphis and Temple combined for 169 points on Thursday, and there were 23 missed free throws in that contest. Tulane is shooting 76.6-percent from the free throw line this season, so hopefully the Green Wave will not share in those struggles.
|
05-19-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks OVER 207.5 |
|
130-109 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units A glaring issue for Indiana on the road has been their defense. New York's lowest-scoring home game in this series was 121 points. Indiana allowed the most free throw attempts all season, and that has carried into this series. The real question is how are the Knicks going to get stops. Their injuries have left them severely undersized. Indiana was already the league's highest-scoring offense. They held the Pacers to a season-low 91 points in game five, also at home, but that won't happen again. Sharp rotations and denying the paint is a must, especially after allowing 62 points in the paint on Friday. The high-scoring Pacers have not had a "total" beneath 214.5 all season.
|
05-10-24 |
Knicks v. Pacers OVER 222 |
|
106-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units It is impossible to ignore how injured the Knicks are right now. OG Anunoby's absence will hurt them on both ends, and they have an excellent record with him. However, Indiana's struggles in the first two games were not with scoring. Rather, their inability to get stops, especially while Brunson is on the floor, is hurting them. The Knicks are constantly getting open shots, hence their 55.4% shooting from the floor. New York's offensive rebounding will wake up eventually if the Pacers do start forcing misses.
|
05-08-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks OVER 220.5 |
|
121-130 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units A lot of the ref's calls at the end of game one seemed to favor the Knicks. Regardless, now is not the time for the Pacers to rely on excuses. Rather, they need to keep scoring as they did during the regular season. Game one's 117 was encouraging, as this club is now up to 113.6 points per contest in the postseason. With all of the offense in the world, Indiana still has clear issues defensively. They gave up the fourth-most points per game this season and have followed it up by surrendering 111.7 in the playoffs, more than any other team still alive. In game one, a team that was 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and facing the NBA's best offensive rebounding unit held up nicely. New York only grabbed eight. It didn't matter, as the Knicks hit 53.7% of their field goals, 47.8% of their threes, and attempted 26 free throws. Indiana also forced 14 turnovers to no avail.
|
02-09-24 |
Pelicans v. Lakers UNDER 233.5 |
|
122-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under.
|
03-03-23 |
New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 155.5 |
|
84-92 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 3-0-1 in Lobos last 4 games following a straight up win., 4-0 in Lobos last 4 Friday games, and 4-0-1 in Lobos last 5 road games. While the Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Rams last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 9-1 in Rams last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 10-2-1 in Rams last 13 games following a ATS loss.
|
03-03-23 |
Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 |
|
115-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS loss, 4-0 in Nets last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 5-1-1 in Nets last 7 road games. While the Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games, 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Friday games, and 6-2 in Celtics last 8 overall.
|
11-29-22 |
Charlotte v. Davidson UNDER 127.5 |
|
68-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
02-26-22 |
Kings v. Nuggets OVER 236 |
|
110-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 13-3-1 in Nuggets last 17 home games, 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game, and 36-17-1 in Nuggets last 54 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. While the Over is 21-6 in Kings last 27 games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-2 in Kings last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous gam, and 10-4 in Kings last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
|
12-29-21 |
Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5 |
|
99-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The under 6-2 in Lakers last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 22-8-2 in Lakers last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. While the under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Memphis.
|
12-28-21 |
Lakers v. Rockets OVER 224 |
|
132-123 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets had mostly sidestepped COVID-related issues prior to Monday. They played without six rotation players after D.J. Augustin, Kenyon Martin Jr., Garrison Mathews and Jae'Sean Tate all entered health and safety protocols in advance of a 123-99 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Houston also played without its starting backcourt of Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) and rookie Jalen Green (rest) while taking a fourth consecutive loss, but both should be available Tuesday. Still, the Rockets were forced to lean on a pair of G-League call-ups (Trevelin Queen and Daishen Nix), while three other rookies logged significant minutes in the loss to the Hornets. Queen put up a team-best 17 points after never scoring more than two in an NBA game previously. Consider that the over is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 games playing on 0 days rest.
|
12-28-21 |
Cavs v. Pelicans OVER 212 |
|
104-108 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Cavaliers dominated the depleted Toronto Raptors on Sunday night. The Cavs likely will face another short-handed team when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night. Cleveland overcame COVID-19 absences of its own to beat the Raptors -- who were missing 10 players due to COVID -- 144-99 in Cleveland. Toronto was missing its top five scorers, all of whom were in the NBA's health and safety protocols. The Raptors had just four players from their regular roster available. Cleveland gained its most lopsided victory of the season despite having seven players in the health and safety protocols, including Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Consider that the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New Orleans.
|
12-21-21 |
Morehead State v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 119.5 |
|
80-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Jaguars are the perfect under team. Kenpom makes them the worst offense in all of Division I. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the country. This has allowed the under to cash in all nine of their games against Division I opponents. The Eagles also play at a very slow pace. Their offense is not good either. They are only averaging 64.9 PPG against Division I teams. This game is going to be played at a criminally slow pace and stay under this low total.
|
12-18-21 |
Utah State v. Iowa OVER 151.5 |
|
75-94 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These are two of the best offenses in the country. Kenpom ranks the Hawkeyes as the 4th best offense and the Aggies as the 46th best offense. This has allowed the over to cash at high rates for both of these teams. Six of the Hawkeyes seven home games and all six of the Aggies games away from home have gone over the total. This game is going to be played at an extremely fast pace and go over this total.
|
12-17-21 |
St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 118.5 |
|
53-63 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have been cashing the under consistently. The under has cashed in all five of the Gaels games away from home and the under has cashed in four of the Aztecs five home games this season. These teams have elite defenses. Kenpom ranks the Gaels as the 8th best defense and the Aztecs as the 11th best defense. Additionally, both of these teams play with no urgency. This will be a defensive battle from the tip. Take the under.
|
12-15-21 |
UCF v. Temple OVER 135.5 |
|
65-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'll take this moderate total to go over in an interesting matchup between UCF and Temple. Central Florida seems to focus more on offensive production and runs up the score in road games. They're 3-0 on the over when away from home and each time the total has safely cashed by at least 10 points. Temple should help by getting to the free throw line and adding points with the clock stopped while staying competitive at home. The over is the play here.
|
12-14-21 |
USC Upstate v. Tennessee UNDER 139.5 |
|
52-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans have a terrible offense. Kenpom ranks them as 333rd best offense in the country. Now they have to face the powerful Volunteers defense which Kenpom ranks number one in the country. Tennessee doesn’t have the most elite offense as proven in their game against Texas Tech. This total is way too high. This game shouldn’t come close to this total.
|
12-13-21 |
Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 |
|
82-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both the Rams and the Panthers play with no urgency. The under has cashed in seven out of ten games for the Rams and six out of nine games for the Panthers. The Rams defense has been amazing this season only allowing 62.8 PPG. They should slow down the Panthers in this game. The Rams will slow down the pace in this game and keep this under the total.
|
12-07-21 |
Boise State v. CS-Northridge UNDER 125.5 |
|
74-48 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams struggle offensively and play with no urgency. The Broncos average 64.1 points per game and the Matadors are scoring 59.1 as both rank in the bottom 50 in the nation. The Broncos have gone Over the total in only two of their eight games, while the Matadors have done so just once in six contests. This game will be played at a very slow pace and stay Under this low total.
|
12-03-21 |
Iowa v. Purdue OVER 160.5 |
|
70-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Big Ten opener for both and these are the two highest-scoring offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes are averaging 94 PPG and the Boilermakers 92.4. This game is going to be amazing to watch, very fast paced and high scoring. It will explode past the total.
|
11-28-21 |
CS-Northridge v. San Diego UNDER 133.5 |
|
56-52 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are defense-oriented. The Toreros allow just 60 points per game and the Under has cashed in their last three games. The Matadors are averaging just 55 points away from home, while the Toreros allow 52.3 points per game at home. Both teams play at a slow pace. Go Under.
|
11-26-21 |
Wizards v. Thunder UNDER 207 |
|
101-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Combined, these two teams average 204.6 points per game this season, but OKC is again without star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 20.4 points and 4.4 assists. Washington is a Top 10 defensive team and OKC in the Top 16 via rating.
|
11-24-21 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 143.5 |
|
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units In my mind, this is going to be a defensive slog in the Bahamas. Both clubs allow only around 60 points per game. Teams are shooting 34.5 percent against Sparty and 37 percent against the Ramblers. Not like either club knows these rims, either. And, yes, that does matter. First-year Loyola head coach Drew Valentine was a graduate assistant coach on Tom Izzo's staff at Michigan State in 2013-14 and 2014-15.
|
11-23-21 |
Nebraska-Omaha v. Texas Tech OVER 140 |
|
40-96 |
Loss |
-114 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This number is way too low. The Red Raiders' offense has been spectacular so far this season. They are averaging 86.3 points on 48.5 percent shooting from the field. The Mavericks are terrible defensively so the Red Raiders will have an easy time scoring. And the Mavericks are good enough offensively to do their part and get this game Over.
|
11-22-21 |
Wyoming v. Grand Canyon UNDER 134.5 |
|
68-61 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are great defensively. The Cowboys are allowing 54.7 points per game, including an overtime contest, while the Antelopes are yielding 56 points per game. Both teams also play a s slow pace. Look for an offensive struggle as this is the first time either team has faced a strong defense.
|
11-22-21 |
Nevada v. South Dakota State UNDER 162 |
|
75-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is the highest total on the board today and I'm always going Under a number this big. It's not that easy to get to 80 points in a college basketball game these days. South Dakota State is an excellent offensive team, but Nevada isn't about to get into a track meet with the Jackrabbits. The SportsLine Projection Model has this game finishing with 155 points.
|
11-21-21 |
NC-Greensboro v. Florida International UNDER 130.5 |
|
71-74 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are terrible offensively and strong defensively. Also, the Spartans play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. The Panthers' offensive numbers are skewed due to their 111-point outburst against a non-Division I opponent. Under is the play.
|
11-20-21 |
Texas-Arlington v. San Diego State UNDER 128 |
|
62-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country. They are only allowing 60.7 PPG and they have had some tough competition to start this season. Now they face the Mavericks who are terrible offensively. They only average 64 PPG which doesn’t tell the entire story. They scored 104 against a non-division I school and they had a game go into overtime. According to Kenpom, they are 324th in adjusted offensive efficiency. These teams are terrible from behind the arc and at the free throw line which helps the under a lot. The Aztecs like to play at a slow pace and have a defensive mentality. This is going to be a boring game to watch with points being very hard to come by. Under is the play.
|
11-19-21 |
Mavs v. Suns UNDER 212 |
|
104-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Unit This total is perplexing considering these teams combined for 203 points in the same gym on Wednesday when the Mavs were without Luka Doncic. He's listed as doubtful tonight. Why would the score change much? Dallas only got 98 points in the first game despite shooting 16-for-32 from deep, and the Mavericks aren't repeating that.
|
11-19-21 |
Florida International v. Green Bay UNDER 135.5 |
|
63-60 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating; 2 Units These teams have terrible offenses. The Panthers' numbers are inflated from their game against a non-Division I opponent, and the Phoenix went to double overtime in their first game. The Phoenix like to slow the game down and should have no problem doing that against the Panthers. FIU is strong defensively, and both teams are on a back-to-back, which will hurt the offenses. Under is the play.
|
11-18-21 |
Green Bay v. NC-Greensboro UNDER 127 |
|
58-60 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both the Spartans and Phoenix like to play at a slow pace. And they're not good offensively. The Spartans rank 246th and the Phoenix 299th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Spartans are averaging 60.7 points and the Phoenix 55.5, and that includes both teams having played an overtime game. The Spartans' defense looks tough as they are allowing just 56.7 points per game. Go Under.
|
11-18-21 |
St Bonaventure v. Boise State UNDER 131.5 |
|
67-61 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have elite defenses. The Bonnies have allowed just 53.5 points per game, the Broncos 57 points per game. Both play very slow offensively. Both teams like to score in the paint, but these defenses thrive at rim protection. These are two of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Go Under.
|
11-15-21 |
IUPU-Indianapolis v. Denver UNDER 133 |
|
47-63 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These teams have looked terrible offensively. Out of 358 teams, the Jaguars are ranked 341st and the Pioneers 346th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. With the slow tempo that the Jaguars like to play at, this game won’t come close to this number. Under is the play.
|
11-14-21 |
Minnesota v. Princeton OVER 131.5 |
|
87-80 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Unit The model makes this one 138.5, which is a very strong play on a total. I think we see a good deal of 3-pointers in this game, which should help us cash in. Princeton took 31 shots from long distance against South Carolina and Minnesota has averaged 20 3-point attempts in its first two games. If the deep shots fall at any decent rate, this one should get above 133. Take the Over.
|
11-14-21 |
Western Carolina v. East Carolina UNDER 150 |
|
79-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This line opened at 142.5 and has been hammered by sharp money up to 149.5. When this happens, the likelihood is that the sharps got a much better number than what's available, with the books compensating by raising the line. I think we probably got too much of a reaction, and my model is going to make this one closer to the original number at 143. Therefore, I'll happily go with what looks like a 6.5-point edge and take the gamble that this comes in lower than billed. This being an in-state rivalry also should aid the Under.
|
11-14-21 |
Fairfield v. Boston College OVER 129 |
|
64-72 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This line opened at 133, which my numbers had as a fair line, but it's been bet down to 130, and I have that as an actionable number. I have the game getting to 135, and I think both offenses have the ability to find the bucket. Fairfield went Over by 20 points in its first game against Providence. BC has come within four points of the total in each of its first two contests. So with the model indicating Over, I'd play this up to 131 at the most.
|
11-12-21 |
Abilene Christian v. Texas A&M UNDER 129 |
|
80-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams were terrible offensively in their openers. They both shot under 40 percent from the field. Defensively, the Aggies were dominant, holding UNF to just 46 points. The Wildcats showed flashes of defensive potential as well as they held the Utes to under 40 percent from the field. Both of these teams like to play at a slower pace. Go Under.
|
11-12-21 |
Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 |
|
113-122 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are missing big scorers in Khris Middleton and Jaylen Brown. The Bucks have been one of the best Under teams in the NBA with 75 percent of their games landing Under. Sixty percent of Boston's have and three of four at home.
|
11-09-21 |
Rider v. Duquesne UNDER 149 |
|
61-73 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Every model I can find has this final score being at least six points lower than the listed total -- the SportsLine Projection Model has it at 141 points. KenPom ranks Rider at No. 206 in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the season and Duquesne 225. Both schools added a ton of transfers so the offenses could be rather shaky in the early going. The Dukes are replacing 10 of their top 12 scorers from last year's opening day roster. One of those top transfers, RJ Gunn, is not expected to play due to injury.
|
10-29-21 |
Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 218.5 |
|
75-106 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I don't believe that Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is going to play with a knee injury, and that obviously massively downgrades Denver offensively. The team is struggling to score as it is -- both the Mavs and Nugs are in the bottom 10 in scoring but Top 10 in scoring defense. If/when Jokic is ruled out, I may come back and take Dallas ATS, although it is in the second of a B2B so not a lock I will do so.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games, and 9-2 in Hawks last 11 games following a straight up win. While the under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games, 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a home favorite.
|
06-10-21 |
Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 |
|
83-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units While the two games at Brooklyn both stayed below the total, a change of venue should bring more scoring. The Bucks average 120.8 ppg on this floor. Needless to say, they're going to score more than they did in Game 2. Slowing down the Nets is a different matter; Brooklyn averages 119.9 ppg on the road. The last meeting between these teams, here at Milwaukee, produced 242 points. I won't be surprised if this one also cracks the 240 mark.
|
06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 211 |
|
111-126 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 4 Units Game 7s are typically possession-by-possession affairs with more physicality allowed by the refs, fewer fouls called, more shots challenged… and these two teams have already failed to reach their offensive averages eight of nine (L.A) and six of nine (Dallas) times against each other this season. Only one way for us to see this one.
|
05-10-21 |
Pacers v. Cavs OVER 230 |
|
111-102 |
Loss |
-113 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units The Cavaliers are the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.7 ppg. But everybody has been filling the net against the Pacers recently. Their saving grace is that they have plenty of scoring themselves. Without the inside presence of Myles Turner, most opponents have been getting to the hoop with no problem against matador Indiana defense. Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has targeted the low scoring output and having his players play at a quicker tempo, taking more shots, which has completely ruined their already ordinary-at-best defensive capabilities.
|
05-09-21 |
Pelicans v. Hornets UNDER 222.5 |
|
112-110 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units No Zion Williamson, no Brandon Ingram, no problem playing defense for the Hornets, probably. The Ball Brothers — Lonzo for the visitor, LaMelo for the home team — will engage in a 3-point missing contest. Via some miracle, the Pelicans have the NBA’s second-best defensive efficiency rating in the last 15 games, a number that should remain in range with Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward and probably Miles Bridges out for Charlotte.
|
05-06-21 |
Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
94-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day All reports indicate that neither Lebron James nor Dennis Schroeder will suit up for the Lakers tonight. Those are the two guys for whom the offense flows its best. They won a game vs. Denver the other night without them, when both teams scored less than 100 points. When you have good defenders, you give yourself a chance to win that way. Kahwi Leonard has been deferring to Clippers’ teammates lately while he plays with a nagging injury.
|
05-03-21 |
Pacers v. Wizards OVER 245.5 |
Top |
141-154 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day Normally we’d say that ‘What went up must come down’ after the Pacers scored 152 points vs. OKC in their last game. But coming down 28 points from 152 still leaves you with 124, and the opponent is the Wizards, known for their sizable defensive yields (and offensive stat-stuffing). The Stat Guys, Westbrook and Beal, see this as a personal challenge to get to 153 points. ‘Hey, these guys can score. We need to score 40 per quarter!’ Westbook figures to have a free pass to attack the hoop all night long in the absence of Myles Turner, Indiana’s defensive anchor/shot-blocker. First-season Pacers’ head coach Nate Bjorken has ruined their prior defensive systems as he is intent on installing and executing his ‘get it and go’ offensive system from the Raptors. Which is the main reason why they have a losing record. But everybody’s scoring average is up, so no harm done.
|