Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors have lost six of their last seven home games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win. While the Hornets have covered the spread in each of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Although they’re shorthanded, we’re going to take the Mavericks plus the points as we think there is an added effort going against their former teammate in Doncic. Dallas did have a poor showing in their 126-102 loss at Golden State but they’re 15-10-1 ATS off a loss and 7-1 ATS across their last eight games. The Lakers are 11-8 ATS as a home favorite but they’ve failed to cover in the last two instances they’ve been listed as a favorite of nine points or greater which will be the case tonight. We’re not saying Dallas wins by any means but they keep it within single digits in LA tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vols are top-20 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Tennessee has already won true road games at Louisville, Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. LSU blew an eight-point second half lead against Florida on Saturday night. We're expecting that loss to linger a little bit, and Tennessee is the ideal opponent to take advantage. The Vols have won-and-covered each of the last three meetings in this series. LSU is 6-10 against the spread as an underdog this season, including 2-3 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. 

Rating: 2 Units

 If you're looking to back a road team at the end of the season, look for ones that do not rely on three-point shooting. If teams have tired legs from travel and fatigue, you do not want a squad full of jump shooters playing in a foreign gym. TCU is last in the Big XII in three-point attempts. Only 27.6-percent of TCU's points come from the three-point line, which is No. 288 in the country. Give us the team that plays sound defense and can score in the interior with a 6.5-point head start.

Rating: 2 Units

The road team has won four of the last five games between the Suns and Grizzlies and has covered the spread in each of the last five games between the Suns and Grizzlies. While the Grizzlies have lost three of their last four games against Pacific Division opponents and have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a sell-high moment for the Cavaliers. They just won back to back games on national television, while playing two of the best teams in the league. They beat the Knicks on Friday, then took down the Grizzlies on Sunday, with both of those games being played in Cleveland. They will not be able to keep up that level of effort and execution, and will have a let down performance against these Magic on the road. Cleveland could still be without Garland, which leaves them with a gap in the backcourt as they force Mitchell to play point guard and throw in another wing. Orlando has been playing well since returning from break, and they have covered in all of their last four games. The Magic are big, and will have a mismatch with either Banchero or Wagner, whichever player is not being guarded by Mobley or Allen. The Magic are not on television as much as the Cavs, this is a bigger moment for Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jazz have won ATS in four consecutive contests with Portland. Three of those games were wins. Along with that, they've covered in three of their past four, whereas Portland is 1-4-0 ATS in their last five. Utah has dominated the glass against the Blazers this season and should do it again on Monday. The Jazz have also shot 7.0% better in head-to-head matchups. Portland has been worse on the road (8-19) all year. Bet on the Jazz to beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be Houston's third time playing on Big Monday. The Cougars took care of business with a 19-point win over TCU and an 11-point win over Baylor in the first two. This is something that you will hear us say quite a bit over the next couple weeks: At this time of the season, we're looking at road teams who do not rely on the three-point shot. Shooting on the road with tired legs four months into the season is not easy. We want to look for teams that play defense, rebound and know how to score in a variety of ways without relying on the three-pointer. Houston is No. 289 in three-point attempts. The Cougars are 8-0 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread in conference road games. With McMillian possibly sidelined, Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland is down to a seven-man rotation. With two games in three nights, that could be a troubling formula against the aggressive Cougars.

Rating: 2 Units

Even without covering last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 35-18-4 ATS on the year which is the best covering record in the NBA. I'm not mad at you if you continue to blindly back OKC. However, it’s not easy to beat the same team twice in as many days, and even with injuries the Timberwolves are still a tough out. The Timberwolves had their chances to win last night, which included a five-point lead with eight minutes left. The Thunder just got ridiculously hot from three in a short span. We were on the Timberwolves last night and I’m going to double-dip with an even larger number. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat have lost three of their last four games as road favorites and have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 road games on the second leg of a back-to-back against Eastern Conference opponents. While the Hawks have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against the Heat following a loss and covered the spread in six of their last seven games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets are coming into this one with a full squad once again, while the Pacers have ruled out James Johnson and TJ McConnell for this one. The Nuggets are coming into this one fresh off an ugly loss to the new-look Lakers, but they've opened as road favorites, as they were riding a nine-game win streak before that defeat. With that being said, the Pacers are certainly in with a chance at home, as they've quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season. You can make an argument for either side in this matchup. The Pacers are just too tempting as the underdogs in this one, especially with the Nuggets having to travel to Indiana for their second game of a back-to-back set.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s hard to bet against the Thunder when they’re the best cover team in the NBA with a 35-17-4 ATS record. However, the Timberwolves still have Edwards, and they have these moments where they’re able to follow his lead and play elite ball. We saw this a couple of weeks ago when the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 116-101 as a 9.5-point underdog. Just when you’re ready to count out the Timberwolves, you’re reminded they’re still a good basketball team. We've also seen the underdog win three of the last four games between these teams. This line feels inflated. I’ll grab the points with the Timberwolves at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawks have won eight of their last nine games as home underdogs following a home loss. The Pistons have lost seven of their last eight games at State Farm Arena and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against Southeast Division opponents that held a losing record. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in eight of the Hawks' last nine games at State Farm Arena.

Rating: 2 Units

Since New Years Day, Phoenix has gone 5-10 against the spread in its last 15 road games. If the playoffs started today, a Suns' team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal would be watching from home. Phoenix is on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing in Chicago on Saturday. Toronto had the day off, so the Raptors have the rest advantage. Since mid-November, the Suns have been involved in ten back-to-backs. Phoenix is 1-9 straight-up, 2-7-1 against the spread in the second leg of those contests.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio State is coming off back-to-back home losses to Michigan and Northwestern. Ohio State is at a travel disadvantage, a two-day rest disadvantage and may be dealing with the flu. Sophomore center Aaron Bradshaw has reportedly missed practice, and he may not be alone. Ohio State's early-season success was largely built on success from the three-point line, but as regression has run its course over a larger sample size, the Buckeyes are playing like a bottom-third Big Ten squad.

Rating: 2 Units

The Portland Trail Blazers have played the better ball over the last month, and they're going to have the edge at home. However, the Trail Blazers have cooled off lately, with a 0-4 record SU and ATS in their last four games. The Charlotte Hornets will have the best player on the floor, and they've quietly covered seven of their last 10 games, which includes a double-digit upset over the Lakers. I don't think the Trail Blazers or Hornets are good enough to lay these sorts of lines. Also, the underdog has covered five of the last eight games between the Hornets and Trail Blazers. Anything can happen in this game between two teams that won't make the playoffs. Give me the Hornets and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

On paper, the Houston Rockets should have their way with the Jazz, but this is a letdown spot after a win over the Timberwolves in a revenge spot. Let's not forget, the Rockets are still a young team learning how to consistently win games and win the games they're supposed to win. Even with last night's win, the Rockets are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. The Jazz don't win games, but they've quietly covered five of their last nine games and did beat the Rockets last April as a double-digit underdog. The Jazz aren't completely useless in the betting market, with 28 covers. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Rockets come out sluggish in this spot. Give me the Jazz and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

I think if I had to pick the winner straight up, that would be Duke. But I'm getting 9.5 points and it might go up because Duke is such a popular and overvalued team. The Blue Devils don't face a lot of teams with the talent of Illinois in the ACC. In fact, they don't face any because Clemson isn't that talented when the Illini are healthy. Ivisic should be a solid matchup in this game because he can match up to 7-2 Khaman Malauch defensively, but also pull him to the perimeter and hit threes. Duke also lost one of their best defenders in Maliq Brown, who averages over 17 minutes per game. Playing the likes of Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland and even Rutgers with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, can get them prepared for this talented square and cover the game.

Rating: 2 Units

North Carolina still has a strong shot to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid, but a home loss to Virginia would certainly hurt their chances. The Tar Heels will simply have too much speed in this game and will push the pace against a team that cannot keep up. North Carolina's top four scorers are all perimeter players, and they play at the 25th fastest tempo in the nation. Virginia has some scorers on the perimeter with McKneely and Rodhe, but they are not athletic defenders who can stay in front of these guys. Virginia likes to play slow, but they will have a difficult time slowing this game down with all the perimeter talent the Tar Heels have. UNC is 39th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and is going against the 128th-ranked defense. UNC has a shot at the tournament, and will not take a step in the wrong direction in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Penn State still refuses to play any defense, but their offense finally has some confidence. The Nittany Lions is averaging 79.8 points per game, and even against a good defense, they will succeed. I don’t expect the Nittany Lions will slow down Dawson Gacia, but this isn’t about Penn State, it’s about the Penn State offense that is going to keep this game close. Minnesota is a good bet as an underdog, as the favorite, not so much. Back Penn State against the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have lost each of their last six night games against Timberwolves teams that held a winning record and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites. While the Timberwolves have won each of their last four games as road underdogs after winning as underdogs.  Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Rockets' last eight games at Toyota Center.

Rating: 2 Units

The home team has won eight of the Thunder's last nine games and has covered the spread in nine of the Jazz's last 10 games. While the Thunder have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games.

Rating: 2 Units

I get the Spurs got bad news on Wembanyama and are on the end of a back-to-back. I still don't understand this line. The Pistons have struggled with consistency and wins over the Bulls and Hornets don't move the needle. Also, I like that the Spurs have had a chance to get back in the swing of things, while the Pistons still haven't played in a week. The Spurs still have good players on their team and don't have to travel after playing last night. I believe this line is a bit of an overreaction to the Wemby news, as I'm just not here with the Pistons to lay this sort of number on the road. Give me the Spurs in a game they could win outright.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mavericks have lost four of their last seven games as favorites following a win and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record. While the Pelicans have won three of their last five games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Mavericks' last three games at American Airlines Center.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wolverines hold the rest advantage and had a couple extra days to prep for this one, but Michigan is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games and the lone cover was decided on the last shot of the game. There is a new regime in Ann Arbor, but Michigan State did sweep this series last year with a pair of double-digit wins. The under is 6-1 in the Spartans' last seven games as Coach Izzo's defense is beginning to hit its stride. We mentioned that Michigan holds the rest advantage in this matchup, but Michigan State is the much deeper team. Per KenPom, the Spartans are No. 14 in the country in bench usage this season while Michigan is outside the top-200. In the Wolverines' win over Ohio State, four players saw at least 30 minutes. In the Spartans' win over Purdue on Tuesday, no one played 30 minutes. Michigan State's defense leads the Big Ten in efficiency, effective field goal shooting allowed and three-point shooting allowed. We'll take the veteran team with the deeper bench and better defense getting points in this Big Ten battle.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents and have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents. While the Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Southeast Division opponents that held a losing record. Additionally, the underdogs have won each of the Heat's last three games at Scotiabank Arena.

Rating: 2 Units

Yale earned a 103-88 road win at Cornell two weeks ago, but we're not comfortable laying this kind of number between two teams that aren't separated by THAT much. Cornell has gone 7-4 against the spread on the road this season. Their two regular season meetings last year were decided by two and three points. We're catching Yale on a ten-game winning streak, while Cornell is at its lowest rating after three-straight losses. We'll look to buy-low on the Big Red.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers have struggled with injuries all season long. Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson could return against the Lakers, but Deandre Ayton will remain on the shelf for a few more weeks. On the other side, the Lakers need to figure out a few things following the Luka Doncic trade. They are thin at center, but this Los Angeles team can score and hit threes at a high level. Keep tracking the injury report because LeBron James was listed as questionable for Wednesday’s clash against Charlotte. Without Ayton, the Blazers will struggle to take full advantage of the Lakers’ flaws. Hereof, I’m backing Purple-and-Gold, although they have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. The Lakers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four dates with the Trail Blazers. 

Rating: 2 Units

This has blowout written all over it as the Hornets are on the end of a back-to-back and Denver is the worst place to play in this spot due to the altitude. The Nuggets are also as healthy as they've been in a while with the expected returns of Westbrook and Gordon. With all of that said, the Nuggets continue to play with their food at times, and it has led to some disappointing results. Also, despite the Hornets not being good, they're coming off a big upset over the Lakers and are now 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a double-digit underdog. Massive line. I'll take another shot with the Hornets.

Rating: 2 Units

The spread is currently set at 12 points in favor of Maryland and that arguably is not enough. With that in mind, the Terrapins are one of the hottest teams in both the Big 10 and in the entire nation. They improved to 10-5 in the conference after their win against Iowa and have won 9 of their last 11 games. The Terrapins have been dominant inside with their 2 big men Darik Queen and Julian Reece. We expect that pair to take over this game and lead Maryland to a blowout win. According to KenPom, USC’s defense is ranked 271st in two-point percentage and their offense is ranked 275th in rebounding percentage. We do not see the Trojans being good enough on the interior to keep this game close, so take Maryland win by double digits.

Rating: 2 Units

With more than a week off after the All-Star Break, I expect Antetokounmpo to be in the lineup on Thursday night. The Clippers should be at full strength as well with the break, meaning Leonard should be available. The Bucks can flex their new lineup on Thursday with Kuzma, Giannis and Lillard all on the floor at the same time. Kuzma, at this stage of his career, is an upgrade from Middleton both offensively and defensively. Middleton has turned into more of a point forward for the Bucks this season while Kuzma will provide scoring and rebounding that the Bucks lack. They are currently just 25th in the NBA in rebounding but Kuzma should improve that number. The Bucks are ranked 12th in the NBA in scoring but will see a bump there as well. That will be critical against a Clippers team that defends well but struggles to put points up on the board, ranked 21st in the NBA in scoring. I'll take the Bucks at home here with more offensive punch and improved defense.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nets have won each of their eight previous games against the Cavaliers at Barclays Center following a win and have covered the spread in each of their last four night games against eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record. While the Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games on the first leg of a back-to-back against the Nets.

Rating: 2 Units

The Memphis Grizzlies are not as dominant on the road where they are only three games above .500 on the season. They lost by 14 points against the Clippers in their previous game. The Indiana Pacers have won three of their past four home games. The Grizzlies defense has been shaky. They gave up 125 points against OKC and  128 points against the Clippers within their past three games. Indiana has the scoring punch to exploit them. Indiana is shooting a dazzling 48.8% on the season. I expect the Pacers to contain Memphis. They attempt an average of 36 threes per game and the Pacers are keeping opponents to 35.7% shooting from deep.

Rating: 2 Units

When UTEP's defense is not generating turnovers, the Miners have a massive issue defending the paint. In conference play, opponents are shooting 56-percent from two-point range against UTEP, which is five percent above the national average. Since New Years, Kennesaw is 9-4 against the spread. Look for the Owls to follow the blueprint that other conference foes have laid out in their second meeting against the Miners.

Rating: 2 Units

It wouldn't be shocking to see the LA Lakers win in a blowout, as they're the more talented team and have health on their side for the first time in a while. However, neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played in a week and there is fear of potential rust. Also, the Lakers are still working in Luka, who isn't 100 percent and could be on a minutes restriction as he works his way back. Additionally, it's not ideal seeing LeBron on the injury report. Of course, check for updates before betting. With all of that said, I have to lean toward the Hornets and the boatload of points.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico shut down Boise State at home. The Broncos went just 5-for-24 from deep and committed 17 turnovers. The Lobos made 54.4% of their field goals (7-for-15 from downtown) while posting a strong 22/11 assist-to-turnover ratio. Boise State is a great rebounding team, and New Mexico has enough weapons to contain the Broncos on the glass. I like the Lobos in this matchup, as they look like a better defensive team than Boise State. New Mexico loves to play aggressive defense on the ball, and the Lobos forced Alvaro Cardenas into seven turnovers back in January. 

Rating: 2 Units

Saint Mary's has won their last 10 meetings against Portland, and are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 meetings. Over is 3-1 in their 4 meetings, and in their most recent meeting earlier this season, Saint Mary's won 81-58 on the road, covering the spread, and the game went over the point total. In this Portland Pilots vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Saint Mary's is coming as -25.5 home favorites. Saint Mary's is rightfully favored, as they have a superior record, and have been almost perfect at home, with just one loss in their 15 home games. On the other hand, Portland has been terrible on the road, and has been dominated by Saint Mary’s over the recent years. I expect the hosts to take care of business like they already did once this season by 23 points on the road. Take the Saint Mary's Gaels and lay the chalk at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Since beating Georgia Tech on January 18, Florida State has gone 2-5 straight-up and against the spread while scoring an average of 66.6 points per game. During that time, Florida State played Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Clemson. No Duke. No Louisville. No SMU. No North Carolina. Over the last month, Florida State's offense has been by-far the worst in the ACC. Miami, on the other hand, has covered the spread in five of its last six games. During that same time span over the last month, the 'Canes have the sixth-best offense in the ACC. In the 18-team ACC, Florida State is No. 16 in effective field goal shooting, No. 17 in three-point shooting and No. 17 in three-point attempts. Oddsmakers are asking the league's second-worst offense that can't make three-pointers to win this game by at least three possessions. Miami's defense is dreadful, but we already listed off the seven teams that Florida State has played over the last month. None of those seven teams are defensive juggernauts (aside from Clemson). Look for the 'Canes to embrace the role of spoiler.

Rating: 2 Units

Since mid-December, West Virginia is 2-4 against the spread as a favorite. The Mountaineers are last in the Big XII in offensive rebounding and last in free throw attempts. If you can't generate second-chance opportunities and you can't get to the free throw line, everything is going to be a struggle on offense. In their first meeting this season, Cincinnati held a 12-5 edge in offensive rebounds. Bearcats' star guard Jizzle James was held scoreless in that contest, going 0-for-8 from the floor. Since that loss, James has scored 24 vs BYU, 25 vs Utah and 25 vs Iowa State. This will be the fifth meeting between these squads over the last two seasons. The underdog has covered the spread in three of the first four, including two outright upset wins. We're expecting the Bearcats to add to that total tonight in Morgantown.

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego State has won their last ten meetings against Fresno State and is 7-2-1 against the spread. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings, and in their most recent meeting earlier this season, San Diego State won 84-62 on the road, covering the spread, as the game went over the point total. In this Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, San Diego State is coming as -18.5 home favorites. San Diego State is rightfully favored, as they have a superior record, and have been very strong at home, while Fresno State is terrible on the road, with just one win in their 12 road games this season. San Diego State is 6-1 in their last 7 games, while Fresno State is on a free fall with eight consecutive losses. San Diego State has been dominating Fresno State in recent years, and expect them to keep doing so today as well. Take the San Diego State Aztecs and lay the points at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota is outside the top-260 in three-point shot volume. Made three-pointers only account for 28.7-percent of Minnesota's points this season. The Gophers are also bottom-20 in the country in free throw shooting at just 65.4-percent. So they don't shoot three-pointers, and look to do everything on the interior. And when they do attack the rim and get fouled, they are bottom-20 in the country at free throw shooting. That simply does not look like a recipe for success in this matchup with UCLA. Since Coach Cronin went on his latest rant about Big Ten travel in mid-January, the Bruins have gone 8-1 straight-up, 6-2-1 against the spread. UCLA is 9-4-1 against the spread at home this season. UCLA is 7-2 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. UCLA has had an extra day to prep for this one after playing last Friday. We're expecting the Bruins to take care of business in comfortable fashion.

Rating: 2 Units

Eight of LSU's ten SEC losses have come by at least eight points. We also have a little bit of a revenge factor in play in this one. We mentioned how close South Carolina came to winning the SEC regular season crown last year, falling one game behind Tennessee. South Carolina lost at home as an eight-point favorite to LSU 64-63, almost one year ago to the day (February 17 2024). That loss as an eight-point home favorite essentially cost the Gamecocks the regular season title. Between this current 12-game losing streak and getting revenge for last year's defeat, Coach Paris has plenty of motivational angles at his disposal this week. We're expecting a good effort out of the Gamecocks in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin is No. 243 in the country in offensive rebounding rate and the Badgers' defense is No. 317 in turnover rate. They can't generate shot volume opportunities, and that's a big reason why Wisconsin lost the first meeting at Illinois. The Illini shot 42.2-percent from the floor against Wisconsin in their December 10 meeting in Champaign, but they generated 15 offensive rebounds. Illinois is top-20 in the country in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding. The Badgers are going to need to shoot nearly 40-percent from three-point range because if they don't, the Illini have several avenues to steal points and keep this one close.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams already met earlier this season in a very similar situation. Baylor was coming off an overtime win against Arizona State, and the Bears got blasted in Tucson the following game. The 81-70 final score is flattering for Baylor because Arizona was up by 27 at the beginning of the second half. Seven Wildcats finished with at least eight points in that contest as Arizona shot 53.7-percent from the floor. Traveling on short rest in the Big XII is not easy, but you're getting the better team in arguably the better situation as an underdog on Monday night. Both Haslametrics and Bart Torvik have Arizona favored in this matchup, and we agree. Baylor is 3-7-1 against the spread in its last 11 games. Arizona is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 games. Even though they are at home, this is a bad matchup for the short-handed Bears.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas Southern is playing decent ball, which includes wins in seven of its last 10 games, and that includes a road upset over Grambling. The problem is Southern beat Texas Southern on the road last month and is now at home where it's undefeated through nine games. And while Southern has failed to cover five of its last six games, Texas Southern is 8-14 ATS on the season. Southern is simply the better team and has won five of the last seven games against Texas Southern. I'll lay the points with Southern at home

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Devils didn’t have any issues at all with a pretty decent Stanford team over the weekend. Duke shot a blistering 62.5 percent from the field in that one with 14-of-29 (48.3 percent) from 3-point range and 12-of-13 (92.3 percent) from the line. The 37-29 rebounding edge helped, as did the 23 team assists and 14 points off 10 Cardinal turnovers. Duke has now lost just one game since November 26 (a 77-71 road outcome versus Clemson on February 8), and they’re scoring quite well during this dominant run.  As for Virginia, they’ve now won three straight and five of the last seven games. The Cavaliers have scored 73 or more points in five straight games as well—a 4-1 run during that time. Going up against Duke is going to be the biggest challenge the Cavs will face for the rest of the year however, and I don’t think they’ll measure up—even at home. 

Rating: 2 Units

At this time of the year, we're looking for teams that play good defense and do not rely on the three-point shot. SELA is bottom-25 in the country in three-point attempts. Instead, over 55-percent of the Lions' points this season have come from two-point range (top-35 in the country). That's a recipe for success in the latter stages of the season. In their first meeting back in December, SELA turned the ball over 22 times, including eight turnovers by senior guard Jakevion Buckley. That is a rough day at the office. Since that loss to McNeese, Buckley has averaged 2.5 turnovers per game. SELA's offense is No. 3 in the Southland in turnover rate. If the Lions can avoid another meltdown on turnovers, they have the formula to hang tough with the Cowboys.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll lean toward Oregon. The Ducks are coming off a pretty good win over a middling Northwestern team—despite giving up 51.7 percent shooting from the field. Oregon shot well themselves (47.1 percent) and hit 25-of-28 from the line (89.3 percent) alongside a 33-27 rebounding edge. The Ducks also scored 18 points off 11 Wildcats turnovers. It was a much-needed victory following five straight losses (four of them on the road) with 77 or more points surrendered in each. As for Rutgers, they’ve scored pretty well over the last couple of games with a combined 154 points. The thing is, the Knights have given up 174 points on the other side in a pair of losses. Oregon should have plenty of opportunities to get ahead quickly in this one, and I think they’ll stay there. 

Rating: 2 Units

Drake has responded from their lone two losses this season by reeling off 11 straight wins. The Bulldogs have beaten Bradley five straight times, including the first meeting this season. Bradley is a very good offensive team but they have to deal with a Drake team that has been excellent at stopping opposing teams from putting points on the board. The Braves are 6-2 on the road but Drake is a stellar 12-1 at home on the year. Drake has held Bradley to 67 points or less in each of the last five meetings. The Bulldogs’ ability to clamp down and make life difficult for opposing shooters, coupled with playing at home, gives them the advantage in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Coyotes are No. 343 in defensive efficiency, No. 337 in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 360 in defensive rebounding rate, No. 315 in three-point shooting allowed and No. 317 in two-point shooting allowed. These teams already met in Brookings where South Dakota State protected its home court with a 90-71 win. South Dakota got to the free throw line 30 times in that contest and still lost by 19. We're struggling to see where the Coyotes can flip the script in the rematch. South Dakota State has won each of the last nine meetings (7-2 against the spread). Those nine wins have come by an average of 14 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

In last week's loss at Nebraska, Ohio State's defense allowed the Huskers to shoot 20-for-31 (64.5-percent) from two-point range. The Wolverines' offense is top-5 in the country in two-point shooting and Michigan is No. 1 in the Big Ten in getting to the free throw line. Unlike Ohio State's hot streak from beyond the arc, Michigan's offense has a formula that can sustain for a long period of time. The Buckeyes' defense is No. 17 out of 18 Big Ten teams in free throw attempts allowed. If Stewart and Bradshaw get into foul trouble trying to defend Goldin and Wolf, Ohio State is going to need another big day from beyond the arc to stay in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m staying with Kansas. The Jayhawks put together a nice effort at home versus a struggling Colorado team in their last outing, hitting 46.6 percent from the field with a 39-33 rebounding edge and only eight turnovers in the 12-point win. Kansas held the Buffaloes to just 38.6 percent shooting on the other side as well. Even during this fairly choppy recent run, Kansas is still scoring well. They’ve hit 69 or more points in eight straight games—a 5-3 stretch. As for Utah, they’ve scored fairly well themselves lately with 69 or more points in four of the last five games. The Utes have given up 72 or more points in each of their last four losses however, so Kansas should have plenty of opportunities to score in this one. 

Rating: 2 uints

I’ll stick with the Lancers. Cal Baptist is coming off a tough loss to a middling Texas Arlington team. In that one, the Lancers had a 48-34 rebounding edge but shot a tepid 41.2 percent from the field while giving up 50.9 percent on the other side. The 14 turnovers for 23 Texas Arlington points didn’t help matters either. Cal Baptist has scored 76 or more points in four of the five games during this 3-2 run, though. Considering Utah Tech has given up 73 or more in three straight games (all losses), the Lancers should be able to post a nice total on Saturday as well. 

Rating: 2 Units

Texas is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of home court, where 10 of the Longhorns' 15 wins have come. However, you can make a strong argument that Kentucky is the better team. Kentucky is coming off its second upset win over Tennessee and has one of the more explosive offenses in the country, which helped in a previous road game against Mississippi State. Texas has lost three straight games, which includes a home upset loss to Arkansas. Texas just allowed 103 points against Alabama. If Kentucky is hitting shots, this is a game the Wildcats can steal on the road. Give me the buckets with Kentucky on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

After winning their first nine Big Ten games, the Spartans have begun to regress, losing three of their last four and going 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games. Illinois has won its last three home games, and their superior three-point shooting should give them an edge here. The Illini make nearly four more three-pointers per game than the Spartans and are not far behind defensively. Take the home team to continue the winning trend in this rivalry.

Rating: 2 Uints

I’ll take a stab at the Texans. Probably not touching it, though; there’s not a lot to like about this matchup. I also wish the line was thicker. Tarleton State managed to hang with a good Grand Canyon team in their last outing, thanks mostly to 22 points off 22 Lopes turnovers. Otherwise, it wasn’t a spectacular effort. The Texans really need to find some scoring. They’ve been below 61 points in three straight. The Texans lost badly the last time these teams met up, falling 91-54 in a road matchup on February 6. Tarleton State shot just 38.3 percent from the field with 12 turnovers for 20 Redhawks points in that one. It’s going to take a big turnaround in order to compete in the home rematch, but it’s possible if the Texans clean a few things up. I’m staying away, though.

Rating: 2 Units

I was going to stay with Gonzaga, but the line seems thick enough for San Francisco to get in there. This should be a pretty fun matchup, though. The Bulldogs didn’t have a ton of issues with a struggling Pacific team in their last outing, taking the road win thanks to 12 points off 15 Tigers turnovers and a nice 23-of-26 (88.5 percent) from the line. Gonzaga has hit 73 or more points in 11 of their last 12 games now, posting a 9-3 record during that time. As for San Francisco, they didn’t shoot well (38.9 percent) in their latest win over LMU and surrendered 52.2 percent on the other side. The Dons powered out the win thanks to 21 points off 18 turnovers, though. San Francisco won’t be able to rely on too many mistakes this time, but I think the line is generous enough that they can ultimately eke one out here. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll stay with the Bears. Northern Colorado didn’t shoot well in their latest win over Montana State (40.4 percent), however, they controlled the game with a 43-36 rebounding edge and just six turnovers. The Bears are scoring well these days, with 73 or more points in four straight games (a 3-1 run). These teams last saw each other on January 18 in a 68-64 home win for the Bears. Northern Colorado didn’t shoot spectacularly (42.2 percent) in that one and had 13 turnovers for 12 Hornets points. There’s plenty to clean up in the road rematch (and I’d like to see a better shooting percentage this time), but Northern Colorado should still have a significant advantage. 

Rating; 2 Units

The Jazz have won each of their last 10 Thursday games against the Clippers. The Clippers have lost each of their last four games with both teams on the second leg of a back-to-back while the home team has covered the spread in eight of the Jazz's last nine games. Additionally, the Clippers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at Delta Center.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll just stay with UC Riverside. This should be a good matchup though, especially considering that UC Davis will be returning home after six road games in their last seven outings. In any case, UC Riverside started slow in their latest win over CSU Bakersfield but everything worked out well. The big stat in that victory was a 36-27 rebounding advantage, not to mention a nice 18-of-21 (85.7 percent) from the line. The Highlanders have scored 69 or more points in six of their last seven games, a 6-1 run. UC Riverside eked out a 60-58 home win the last time these teams met on January 30. The Aggies will put up a good fight again here, but I like the Highlanders to power one out. 

Rating: 2 Units

An edge for Dallas in this game is that they don't have to travel after Wednesday's game, whereas Miami is coming from OKC. The Mavericks are also facing an ice-cold offense battling a team-wide sickness. The Mavs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four. Miami is 1-5-0 ATS in their last six. In round one, the Mavericks outrebounded the Heat. Dallas is already much more efficient offensively without accounting for Miami's recent struggles. Dallas' defense will keep the Heat in check, and the offense will muster enough to win straight up and ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

I will take OKC to cover. The Thunder are arguably the best defensive team in the league, and they will be able to contain the Timberwolves on the glass, as Julius Randle is out. The Timberwolves lean on 3-point shooting. They are fifth in the league in 3-point rate (.454) and third in 3-point percentage (38.3%). But Oklahoma City leads the NBA in opposing 3-point percentage (33.1%) and ranks third in 3-pointers allowed per 100 possessions (12.7). In their first meeting of the season, Minnesota went 15-for-38 from downtown but turned the ball over a whopping 24 times. Edwards had just 20 points, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40 on the Timberwolves. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings have lost each of their last five road games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Pelicans and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 15 Thursday night games. While the Pelicans have won 12 of their last 20 games as underdogs against the Kings following a loss and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Kings.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are on the tail end of a back-to-back, but the difference is that Golden State is the healthier team, while the Rockets are down two starters, and may need to rest a third. The Rockets recently lost six straight games, they are not the same team when they do not have their full force in the starting lineup. Fred Van Vleet and Jabari Smith Jr. will be out for this game, which is two big losses. They both score in double figures, Van Vleet is their valuable point guard, and losing Smith takes away their best defensive players. Sengun may also miss this game as he is dealing with a back injury. Golden State is making one last run with Curry and Green and made that evident when they added the veteran Jimmy Butler. The Warriors are 2-0 with Butler in the lineup, he brings toughness on the perimeter and the Warriors will be too much for the tired and beaten-up Rockets. Take the Warriors to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

There are going to be some bumps in the road during this new venture with the Lakers roster, and I will try to catch one here with the Jazz getting points at home. Utah only lost by one point last time they hosted the Lakers, and will keep this one close after exposing a new weakness in the Lakers lineup. Los Angeles is loaded with perimeter talent, but Rui Hachimura and Jaxson Hayes are not the long term answer inside defensively. The Jazz have bigs who can score, John Collins is an aggressive forward who can play well above the rim, Kessler is a bully who is physical around the rim, and even Lauri Markkanen can use his size to score around the bucket. This is a great buy low spot for these Jazz, as they will find the weaknesses in the Los Angeles defense after just playing them two nights ago. Neither LeBron or Luka is expected to play heavy minutes here, which will allow the Jazz to keep it within the number.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phoenix Suns have lost five of their last six games, are still without Beal, and they're on the end of a back-to-back. The Rockets should be favored. However, the Rockets have cooled off drastically these last couple of weeks and have losses in six of their last seven games. The Rockets have scored 105 or fewer points in four of their last six games. The underdog has covered five of the last six games between the Rockets and Suns. This line is showing the Rockets a little too much respect given their current form. I'll take a shot with the Suns and the points, even if they're the worst cover team in the NBA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including an ATS loss to the Pelicans a few days ago. Sacramento can't cover, whereas New Orleans at least went 1-0-1 ATS in their most recent homestand. The Pels are also 2-0-0 ATS against Sacramento. New Orleans kept the first two meetings within five points, including only a two-point loss at home. They've been more efficient in head-to-head meetings thus far. They may not win but expect the Pelicans to cover tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics could be without Holiday and Brown in this game as the two veterans recover from injury, but they still have a decided talent edge against the Spurs. Tatum is playing at an MVP level over the past week and is a matchup nightmare for the Spurs. The Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that has the length to bother Wembanyama with Kristaps Porzingis manning the middle. Derrick White will be tasked with guarding Fox and, while he won't shut him down, he can slow him down. The Celtics have not played well at home recently so I expect that to be a point of emphasis heading into this game. The Spurs are just 16th in the NBA in 3-point defense and 19th in rebounding. To beat the Celtics with some level of consistency, teams need to be above-average on the perimeter and have the ability to track down rebounds with the Celtics shooting threes at a high volume. The Spurs do not excel in either area. Take the Celtics minus the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Wake Forest is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against Florida State, but Florida State is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings. Wake Forest is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings, and in their most recent meeting last season, Florida State won 87-82 at home, covering the spread, as the game went over the point total. In this Florida State Seminoles vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Prediction, Wake Forest is coming as a -6.5 home favorites. Wake Forest is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been almost perfect at home, while Florida State is terrible on the road. Wake Forest is in excellent form lately with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and 7-2-1 against the spread, while on the other hand, Florida State is 1-4 in their last 5 and 1-5 against the spread. The value here lies with the home team, so take the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and lay the points at home.

Rating: 2 Units

NC State has won their last four meetings against Louisville, while Louisville is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 meetings. Over/under is 5-5 in their last 10 meetings, and in their most recent meeting last season, NC State won 94-85 at home, not covering the spread, as the game went over the point total. In this Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Louisville is coming as a -6.5 road favorites. Louisville is rightfully favored, as they have a superior record, and have been very good on the road this season. The Cardinals have been red-hot lately with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games, while the Wolfpack are struggling with eight consecutive losses. The value here lies with the road team, so pick the Louisville Cardinals and lay the points on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

Kevin Durant will be back on the floor after a three-game absence when the Phoenix Suns host the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Durant has been sidelined with a sprained left ankle sustained Feb. 3 in a 121-119 overtime loss to the host Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns won just one of the three games he missed and are 2-11 this season when Durant sits out. Monday was the first time Durant faced reporters since the trade deadline passed on Thursday. His name was circulating, but Phoenix held on to the 15-time All-Star.

Rating: 2 Units

Creighton's defense is bottom-5 in the country in forcing turnovers, so the ball security issue that UConn fought against Saint John's is unlikely to make an appearance in this one. Creighton has covered the spread in ten-straight games, including a 68-63 win over UConn in mid-January. The Huskies closed as a 7.5-point home favorite in that matchup. Yes, you have to make an adjustment for home court advantage from Storrs to Omaha. But we're not ready to make a ten-point adjustment. In that first meeting, McNeeley did not play for the Huskies and Creighton held a 15-5 edge in free throw attempts. UConn has only been held below ten free throw attempts one other time this season, so we're not anticipating the Bluejays to hold that kind of edge in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll lean toward USC. The Trojans haven’t been playing great lately, though. That was on full display in their latest loss to a good Purdue team on Friday. USC gave up 50 percent shooting from the field with a 48-31 rebounding deficit. The Trojans shot just 4-of-26 (15.4 percent) from 3-point range and 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the line in a pretty miserable shooting outing overall themselves. The good news is that USC is still scoring well. They’ve hit 70 or more points in five straight games. The bad news is that the Trojans are giving up a lot of points on the other side. As for Penn State, they’ve been mired in a slump themselves with fewer than 65 points in three straight games amid this five-game losing streak. The Nittany Lions shouldn’t have a ton of issues scoring here, however, so I like a fairly high total with USC eking it out in the end. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll stay with Marquette. The Golden Eagles desperately need a good performance here, and I think they’ll get it. In their latest loss to a pretty good Creighton team, Marquette looked lost at times on a rough 36.1 percent shooting from the field. If there’s good news, it’s that the Golden Eagles had a 37-34 rebounding edge and just five turnovers. The last time these teams met up was back on January 14 in an 85-83 overtime road victory for the Eagles. Marquette was outmuscled on the boards 46-31 in that one and gave up 51.6 percent shooting. There’s plenty to clean up, but I like the Golden Eagles to assert themselves at home and power one out here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Pistons have a losing record (2-9) in divisional matchups this season while the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.  Additionally, The Pistons are currently 13-13 on the road with a point differential of -1.

Rating: 2 Units

We have two rested Eastern Conference rivals when the New York Knicks visit the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has a 6-4 SU edge against NY and has won three of their previous four. Indiana likes to play fast, and their fast pace is partially responsible for their O/U record of 6-4-0 over their last 10. The Pacers' defense allows 116 points per game at Gainbridge. NY laid a Saturday night home offensive stinker

Rating: 2 Units

We feel with Doncic inserted into the lineup there will be some learning curves for the Lakers, and should they not have James tonight it may be even tougher for him to adjust and have an efficient game tonight. The Jazz do rank eighth in second chance points this season with LA sitting bottom ten in second chance points given up on the season. We’re not saying Utah comes out on top in this matchup, but with it being a nationally televised game and all the hype around Doncic, they’ll be motivated to spoil his debut.

Rating: 2 Units

Sacramento won its first game since playing without De’Aaron Fox and it appears as though newly acquired Zach LaVine is meshing seamlessly into the Sacramento offense as the sharpshooter is scoring 19 points a game. Sacramento's offense is 9th best in the NBA with the 11th best field goal shooting percentage. Dallas is only 11th in scoring at 115.5 points per game. Anthony Davis looked strong in his debut with Dallas, scoring 26 points but is a game-time decision and could miss the game along with PJ Washington and those two are Dallas’ best rebounders, as well as both averaging double digits in scoring. Dallas has covered the spread in five of the last seven against Dallas. In what should be a tightly contested game, Sacramento, with no players out injured, will have a slight advantage against a banged-up Dallas side.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll stay with Jackson State. The Tigers had their way with a struggling MS Valley State team on Saturday, posting a nice 51.7 percent from the field with a commanding 45-22 edge on the boards (17-5 offensive). Jackson State committed just five turnovers but added 24 points off 14 Devils turnovers along the way. The 31.1 percent shooting allowed was another great effort. That makes seven wins in the last 10 games for the Tigers. As for Arkansas Pine Bluff, they didn’t play so well against Alcorn State on Saturday, and they’ve got another tricky road matchup in store on Monday. I like Jackson State to keep it going at home and power one out here. 

Rating: 2 Units

Charlotte is playing the second game of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights here, so fatigue will play a role into things. The Hornets have to deal with the change in their rotation now that Knecht and Reddish are going back to the Lakers while Williams returns to the fold. Brooklyn has won four of their last five and they have two days of rest going in their favor. Throw in that the Hornets struggle in the second game of a back-to-back, coupled with their rotation issues and injury concerns and we see the scales tip toward the Nets. Even with their offensive issues, give the advantage to the hosts as Charlotte fades late to wind up with the loss.

Rating: 2 Units

New Orleans isn’t going to win this game, but they are going to find a way to be competitive here. Incarnate Word’s defense is giving up 69.8 points per game and they are going to give up even more than that here. Incarnate Word is averaging 75.1 points per game but they aren’t going to pull away. New Orleans will play a complete game and they will end up covering the spread here. 

Rating: 2 Units

One of the reasons the Cavs made the deal for Hunter was to improve their perimeter defense. They are small at both guard positions with Mitchell and Garland and struggled to cover teams with high-scoring wings like the Celtics. Hunter may or may not be available on Monday night, but it will take time for the Cavs to get him comfortable in the rotation. Enter the Wolves on Monday night. The Wolves have one of the best scoring guards in the NBA in Anthony Edwards and are 3rd in the NBA in 3-point shooting. The Wolves will be able to exploit the undersized Cavs on the offensive end and take advantage of the Cavaliers' 19th-ranked 3-point defense. The Wolves, on the other hand, are an above-average 3-point defensive team which will be critical against the Cavs' #1-ranked 3-point shooting. The Wolves are also one of the best road teams in the NBA with a record of 15-11. They'll pull off a modest upset on Monday night. Take the Wolves.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs are still playing without Charles Bassey, while the Wizards have ruled out Anthony Gill and Alex Sarr once again. The Spurs haven't been able to build any momentum this season and they will be so disappointed with their loss to the struggling Magic, so they will surely welcome the opportunity to take on the lowly Wizards. Surely, the Spurs can run up a score against the Wizards' poor defense and get the much-needed win on the road, but I just don't think the Spurs should be so heavily favored against anyone the way they've been playing.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll stay with Florida A&M. On Saturday the Rattlers were able to eke one out against Texas Southern despite shooting a tepid 41.2 percent from the field with a 35-32 rebounding deficit and 16 turnovers for 20 Tigers points. It was the third time in the last five games that Florida A&M has been below 67 points, so I’d like to see a higher total here. As for Prairie View A&M, they faded down the stretch versus a middling Bethune-Cookman squad on Saturday. The Panthers gave 57.1 percent shooting from the field in that one and got outmuscled on the boards 39-25. The 17 points off 13 Wildcats turnovers helped, but it wasn’t enough to put Prairie View over the top. I like Florida A&M to keep them down Monday as well, but it’ll be a good matchup if both teams play to their capabilities. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Hornets are coming into this one with the same squad once again, while the Pistosn are keeping an eye on Lindy Waters and Dennis Schroder who are both listed as questionable for this one. The Hornets were one of the coldest teams in the league before their thrilling upset win over the Spurs in their last outing and you could almost say the same about the Pistons who were struggling before their spirited win over the 76ers in their last game. The Pistons put together their best performance of the season to beat the 76ers in their last game, but I just don't feel that they will be as motivated for this matchup. I still have the Pistons getting the win at home, but this line just seems too hefty, so I will lean towards the Hornets with the points in this spot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Revolutionaries are last in the A-10 in three-point shooting this season, so we're unlikely to see a repeat of that performance. We mentioned that the Bonnies have been struggling against the spread recently. Most of those losses have come against the best teams in the conference. George Washington still hasn't played VCU, Davidson, Loyola-Chicago or Saint Joe's. In the 15-team Atlantic-10, George Washington's offense is No. 13 in efficiency, No. 13 in effective field goal shooting, No. 12 in turnover rate, last in three-point shooting and No. 14 in free throw shooting.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers should be huge favorites as they're at home with the rest advantage, and they're healthy. The Jazz aren't good, they're injured, and they're on the end of a back-to-back with a game that included overtime. The Jazz also had their heart broken as they made a huge comeback just to lose by the Suns forcing overtime on last second shots. With all that said, I just saw the Clippers blow a 22-point lead in minutes to the Pacers. The Clippers were turning the ball over left and right and not defending. The Jazz have issues, but they play hard. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings side with New York plus the points, and although Boston is the fourth worst ATS team in the league, they’re an impressive 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. We know Boston thrives beyond the three-point line and New York ranks dead last in the league in three-point percentage allowed on defense. New York has been a home underdog just once this season, getting blown out by the Thunder 126-101 back on Jan 3rd with Boston going 3-1 straight up in their last four regular season games at MSG. Take the Celtics to bounce back against a Knicks team whose rotation will become even tighter than it already is without the services of Anunoby once again tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota is primed to grab the win in this one and should do so with relative ease. Portland has been one of the worst teams in the league on the road and have a number of injuries that are sure to cut into their efficiency on both ends. For the Timberwolves, they are one of the best defensive teams in the league, which helps them in case Edwards is unable to go. If Portland struggles to score, it isn’t likely to matter who is or isn’t playing for Minnesota from an offensive standpoint. Expect Minnesota’s defense to be suffocating and Edwards to play anyway, giving them success on both ends.

Rating: 2 Units

George Mason should be able to avenge its only conference loss, HOWEVER, we're not sure that the Patriots are built to cover a hefty spread like this. Since the beginning of December, George Mason has been favored by at least eight points seven times. The Patriots are 2-5 against the spread in those games. George Mason is No. 312 in the country in adjusted tempo. It's hard to beat quality teams by more than eight points when you're playing that slow. Over the last three weeks, GMU has beaten George Washington by three in double overtime, beaten Loyola-Chicago by five in overtime, beaten Davidson by four and beaten George Washington again by three. They are winning games, but certainly not with much room to spare. On the other side, Rhode Island is a team that doesn't get blown out very often. The Rams are coming off a one-point loss at Fordham on Wednesday. Rhode Island has only lost two games (vs VCU and at Duquesne) by more than eight points all season. George Mason can avenge its lone conference loss, but that doesn't mean it has to come by a hefty margin.

Rating: 2 Units

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best bet in the NBA with a cover percentage of 69.5 percent, so I wouldn't talk you off the edge if looking to back them here. The Thunder have also covered 12 of their last 17 games as a double-digit favorite. The Toronto Raptors have just four road wins on the season and made some trades at the deadline which could have them short roster-wise for this one. I get it. However, you just don't see a near 20-point line often in the NBA, and I have a hard time bringing myself to get involved with that sort of number. This will be the third time since 1997 that the Thunder are favorites of 18 or more points. It just doesn't happen regularly, folks. The Raptors are 6-3 SU and ATS in their last nine games. Give me the Raptors and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

We like a road team that doesn't rely on three-pointers. Saint John's is bottom-20 in the country in three-point attempts. Only 22.3-percent of the Red Storm's points come from beyond the arc. That formula has propelled Saint John's to road wins at Providence, Xavier, Seton Hall and Georgetown. The Red Storm only needed three made three-pointers to beat Marquette on Tuesday. In Big East play, Saint John's defense is No. 1 in efficiency, No. 1 in effective field goal shooting allowed, No. 2 in two-point shooting percentage allowed, No. 2 in turnover rate and No. 2 in block rate. That's a great recipe for road wins in tough environments.

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings favor the Hawks which is the play we’ll recommend here tonight with Atlanta sitting 7-3 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee just 5-9 ATS as a road favorite. Milwaukee hasn’t covered in each of their last five games with four of them coming as a favorite as Antetokounmpo is in danger of missing his third straight game and with a nationally televised matinee at home against the 76ers on Sunday, they may be leaning toward sitting him once more. Take the Hawks plus the points who have been very competitive as of late, although it hasn’t been translating to straight up wins.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat have lost each of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win. While the Nets have won four of their last five games as underdogs after losing as favorites and underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Nets' last four games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs have lost nine of their last 10 road games following a road win and have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 road games against Southeast Division opponents. While the Hornets have won six of their last seven night games against the Spurs and have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pacers are fourth in the East, five games behind the New York Knicks and a game and a half ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks. Indiana ranks 10th in the league in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.5 points per 100 possessions) and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency (114.8). 

Rating: 2 Units

Sacramento ranks 11th in the NBA in adjusted NET rating, including 7th in offensive rating and 18th in defensive rating, per Dunks and Threes. The Kings score 116.5 points per game (8th) and shoot 47.4 percent from the field (11th), including 34.6 percent from beyond the arc (24th). Defensively, they surrender 115.2 points per game (22nd) and their opponents shoot 46.5 percent overall (14th) with a 37.4 three-point percentage (29th).

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors had won four of six before this back-to-back, putting their record back over .500. Then, they traded for Jimmy Butler. Golden State isn't giving up, and it starts with the league's ninth-best defensive rating. They allow the lowest percentage of shots to come at the rim and rank 13th in three-point defense. Another strength of this defense is the 10th-highest defensive rebounding rate. The Warriors are 13th in free throw attempts allowed and 14th in turnovers per game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are still missing Steven Adams, Jaden Springer, and Fred VanVleet, while the Timberwolves have ruled out Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo once again. The Rockets could really do with a win to get their season back on track as they are now starting down the barrel of a fifth straight loss, while the Timberwolves have continued their strong form with a solid win over the Bulls last night. The Rockets will turn things around sooner rather than later, but they're struggling right now and their confidence took another shot after losing to the lowly Nets in a heartbreaking fashion in their last game. The Rockets open as slight favorites because the Timberwolves are playing their second game of a back-to-back set, but I still think the Timberwolves get the job done at home in a close one.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland beat Ohio State by 24 earlier this season. The Terps had a poor night from three-point range (7-for-25) and still smacked the Buckeyes. Maryland was up 50-17 at halftime and forced 17 turnovers in the contest. Where are the Buckeyes going to be able to close that gap? Maryland is top-25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. All five of Maryland's losses this season have been decided by six points or less. Advanced analytics from Bart Torvik and Eric Haslam both have Maryland favored in this matchup, and we're inclined to agree.