Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves are primed for a bounce back in game two, especially being at home. In game one, they not only shot the ball terribly but also struggled to find success and scoring in the paint. Both of those have not been typical of this group this season and adding in being the home team, limits the chances of a repeat performance. Minnesota should expect to get plenty more out of their frontcourt and their stars, most notably Anthony Edwards, which will be more than enough to help them coast to a win in this one. Minnesota has shown an ability to bounce back all season and that’ll be the case again today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics came into game one of their series with the Cavaliers in round 2 well rested but didn't show any signs of rust in a 25-point blowout win. The Celtics have lost two games in the playoffs and both were game two losses at home after game one blowouts. The Pacers were 0-2 in Boston during the regular season but do present a wildcard of a team thanks to their ability to knock down three-point shots. In both losses in these playoffs, the Celtics were exploited beyond the arc. In fairness, however, the Celtics didn't get out on 3-point shooters in either game, disregarding both the Heat and Cavs' shooting beyond the arc. They come into this series well aware of the Pacers' ability to shoot from beyond the arc in four of their five starting positions. The Celtics will be on high alert to get out on shooters and make the Pacers hit contested shots. The Pacers play as fast as anyone in the NBA and that should play into the Celtics' strengths. Take a look at the scoring averages of Brown and Tatum against the Pacers with each averaging over 28 points per game against Indiana. They both flourish in transition and should give the Celtics a decided edge at the forward spot. The Celtics can survive and thrive without Porzingis in this series as well given the lack of size of the Pacers. No promises for how the Celtics will come out in game 2 but this one should be a Celtics' win given their rest, edge at forward, and stronger defense.

Rating: 2 Units

The defending champions are home for Game 7, and will be refocused after the Game 6 disaster. That game got out of hand, but it appeared the Nuggets were ready to head to Game 7 as early as the second quarter. The effort and energy from Denver was lacking, as was evident in how they got dominated on the boards. This will all change in Game 7. As a bettor, we cannot look at Game 6 in a vacuum, as the Nuggets won Game 5 by 15 points, and Game 3 by 27 points. The 5-point spread should not concern Denver-backers, as every single game in this series was won by seven or more points. Denver will get back to their winning ways here, they found success double-teaming Edwards on the perimeter, and forcing the other role players to step up. Towns has been quiet this series, as Aaron Gordon is more athletic and just as strong as the big man. Nikola Jokic is well-regarded as the best player in the world, he will prove it in Game 7 with a big showing.

Rating: 2 Units

A glaring issue for Indiana on the road has been their defense. New York's lowest-scoring home game in this series was 121 points. Indiana allowed the most free throw attempts all season, and that has carried into this series.  The real question is how are the Knicks going to get stops. Their injuries have left them severely undersized. Indiana was already the league's highest-scoring offense. They held the Pacers to a season-low 91 points in game five, also at home, but that won't happen again. Sharp rotations and denying the paint is a must, especially after allowing 62 points in the paint on Friday. The high-scoring Pacers have not had a "total" beneath 214.5 all season. 

Rating: 2 Units

The spread is currently listed at Nuggets +2.5, but if you like the defending champions in this game, the money line is the more profitable play. Denver has made adjustments, while Minnesota seems to be searching for answers. The Timberwolves did not lose three straight games all season until now, and it is not a fluke either. Anthony Edwards might someday be the best player in the world, but as for now, that title still belongs to the Joker. Jokic has averaged 37.5 PPG over the past two victories, and this is going against the top defensive unit in the league, and the Defensive Player of the Year. Jokic hit eight of nine shots with Gobert as the primary defender, and Denver knows they can blow out Minnesota's defensive gameplan if they get Towns in foul trouble. Anthony Edwards was stifled by double teams in Game five, the Nuggets are willing to let guys like McDaniels or Alexander-Walker try to beat them on the perimeter while taking Edwards out of the game. The defending champs have the momentum and will close out this series on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics seem to thrive away from the pressure of playing in front of the home faithful at TD Garden in the playoffs. They are just 2-2 at home in the playoffs but they haven't lost yet on the road. The Celtics took full advantage of the Cavs' lack of size in the paint in game two, particularly Brown and Tatum. The duo combined for 61 points and Tatum made nine trips to the free-throw line, sinking all nine. The Celtics also shifted Jrue Holiday on Mitchell primarily defensively and he spent a good portion of the game playing single courage on him until the Cavs increased using the high screen to free Mitchell. The Celtics' distinct advantage at every other position showed through in game three. As long as the Celtics stick to that aggressive defense and force the likes of LeVert, Garland, and Isaac Okoro into difficult shots, they should roll again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves have another chance to take control of this series and will have a strong showing here. Minnesota does not want to give the advantage back to the Nuggets, which is exactly what would happen if the series ends up 2-2 with two of the three remaining games being in Denver. Anthony Edwards played his worst game of the series in Game three, he will bounce back as Denver will not be able to contain the young star for consecutive games. Edwards and Towns have both been shooting over 40% from deep in the playoffs, which spaces out this Denver defense and creates more shot opportunities. The Nuggets' entire starting lineup scored in double-figures in Game Three, they have not been getting that consistent scoring from their role players, and it will not carry over to Game Four. Minnesota still has the most efficient defense in the league and will make the adjustments to not allow Denver to score 117 again. This is a huge game for Anthony Edwards, he will continue his rise to stardom and help the Timberwolves take a 3-1 lead in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics can be their own worst enemy at times and that has certainly been true in the playoffs. They have lost two home games by double-digits and, in both instances, they strayed away from their style of play. On Thursday night, the Celtics were stagnant offensively and took forced threes rather than moving the ball with an extra pass. They also had a passive effort on the defensive end, allowing LeVert and Mobley to get to their spots and make easy baskets near the rim. Boston allowed Mitchell, 33 points, to get his in game one and shut down the rest of the Cavs but didn't have that urgency in game two. The Celtics responded in a big way in the last series, blowing out the Heat in both games. I think the Celtics win this game comfortably with better players at nearly every position save for Mitchell.

Rating: 2 Units

It is impossible to ignore how injured the Knicks are right now. OG Anunoby's absence will hurt them on both ends, and they have an excellent record with him. However, Indiana's struggles in the first two games were not with scoring. Rather, their inability to get stops, especially while Brunson is on the floor, is hurting them. The Knicks are constantly getting open shots, hence their 55.4% shooting from the floor. New York's offensive rebounding will wake up eventually if the Pacers do start forcing misses. 

Rating: 2 Units

After dominating in game one, it's difficult to not imagine the Thunder coasting to an easy win in game two of the series. This is one of the best defenses Dallas has seen of late and it showed in game one, as they struggled to shoot the ball. That isn't expected to suddenly change for game two. Adding in Oklahoma City having the massive upper hand when it comes to three-point shooting itself, as well as one of the best homefield advantages in the NBA, and Oklahoma City has to feel great about their chances at victory in this one. The Thunder have covered the spread twice in the last month against Dallas, in four-straight overall, and in eight of their last nine, as they continue those winning trends coming in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of the ref's calls at the end of game one seemed to favor the Knicks. Regardless, now is not the time for the Pacers to rely on excuses. Rather, they need to keep scoring as they did during the regular season. Game one's 117 was encouraging, as this club is now up to 113.6 points per contest in the postseason. With all of the offense in the world, Indiana still has clear issues defensively. They gave up the fourth-most points per game this season and have followed it up by surrendering 111.7 in the playoffs, more than any other team still alive. In game one, a team that was 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and facing the NBA's best offensive rebounding unit held up nicely. New York only grabbed eight. It didn't matter, as the Knicks hit 53.7% of their field goals, 47.8% of their threes, and attempted 26 free throws. Indiana also forced 14 turnovers to no avail.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder will roll to a win at home in this one, as the Western Conference's top seed leans heavily on their homecourt advantage. The Thunder have been one of the best teams at home this season and there are no signs of that slowing down or not being the case in this one. Adding to that, Doncic and Hardaway Jr. battle injuries, which mean that this team will have two of their top three scorers somewhat hobbled. Against a team in OKC that has balance on both ends, it's going to be too much for Dallas to overcome to keep that one close come the fourth-quarter. Oklahoma City has covered the spread in eight of the last ten meetings between these two and in seven of their last eight overall, as that carries into this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando has rebounded the ball like a machine since being outrebounded in the first two games, allowing the Magic to attempt 17 more threes than the Cavaliers. With Jarrett Allen dealing with a rib contusion, Cleveland is in dire straits in that department. He reportedly had difficulty lifting his arm after going through shootaround before game six. Without him, Evan Mobley shied away from the moment (three points on 1-for-5 shooting in game six), which is confusing considering that lack of spacing isn't a problem with Allen sidelined. Even with Mitchell's heroics (50 points on 22-for-36 shooting, including 36 points in the paint), the Cavs came up short in game six. His performance was more concerning than encouraging, as the Magic have been much more balanced, with Paolo Banchero (27 points), Franz Wagner (26 points), and Jalen Suggs (22 points) sharing the scoring responsibilities. Even at home, Cleveland will be vulnerable if Allen is as unhealthy as reports indicate. After stealing the momentum, the Magic will steal the series from the Cavaliers in game seven, winning straight-up as underdogs!

Rating: 2 Units

The two superstars in this game are Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards. In the first game of the series, I will side with the team with the defense better suited to stop the other team's top player. Jokic is close to unstoppable, but if anyone could slow him down it would be the three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. The Timberwolves invested heavily in their frontcourt, going big with both Gobert and Towns in the starting lineup, and another big body off the bench in Naz Reid. The Timberwolves rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency and will be able to limit Jokic's impact in this game. On the other side of the ball, Denver does not have a clear answer on who will guard Anthony Edwards. Aaron Gordon is a versatile defender, but he may not have the lateral quickness to stay in front of Edwards for long stretches. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the other option, but he is not a strong enough defender to be locked on Edwards for the whole game. The Lakers had two games come down to the final shot against Denver, the T-Wolves will keep this close as well, and taking the points is the right play.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando erased a ten-point deficit on the road in game five to cover and has played much better at Kia Center in this series. The visiting Cavaliers have not found a way to keep the Magic off the glass since game two and will be vulnerable again tomorrow with Allen (10.5 RPG) uncertain to play. I expect Orlando to punish Cleveland on offense at the rim if Allen is less than 100 percent or unavailable. Expect the Magic to take good care of the basketball and knock down more threes at home.

Rating: 2 Units

A seven-game series between these two teams seems inevitable at this point. The Sixers are getting all they can and more from a hobbled Embiid and the Knicks have had to lean on their starting five more than ever as this series has worn on. The Knicks looked like a team that was tired toward the end of game five and now will have to crank it back up after appearing to have earned their way into the second round late in game five. The 76ers will need another solid effort from Tobias Harris in game six and he should be able to pick his spots against the Knicks' tired first five. The Bogdanovic injury is big given that the Knicks were counting on his minutes and production at the forward spot. They now really have to lean on Hart to play almost 48 minutes a night. Maxey is becoming a legitimate NBA superstar before our eyes in this series and he'll help carry the Sixers to one more game at MSG this weekend.

Rating; 2 Units

Indiana's offense has been just as efficient as Milwaukee's in this series. The Pacers are winning the rebounding and turnover battle. Indiana is much healthier, especially when it comes to the stars in this series. Expect game five to bring this series to an end, especially if Antetokounmpo and Lillard don't play again. Milwaukee can't reach 115 points in an April game, even at home, and can't prevent the Pacers from exceeding 120 points. The Pacers are up 3-1 despite 68.8% free throw shooting. It's over. Take Indiana to win and cover.

Rating; 2 Units

The Magic looked dominant at home, but I don't put too much value in those outcomes. They weren't competitive in games one and two in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers are due for positive shooting regression. I expect Cleveland to get back to its winning ways by holding their own on the glass (+14 rebounding margin in game one and +7 in game two) and scoring more buckets in the paint. Limiting Orlando's fast break opportunities will also be a key to game five. The Magic are unlikely to shoot the ball as efficiently as on Saturday (55.8%). As long as the Cavs score early and often inside, offensively-challenged Orlando will crumble under the pressure of matching baskets with Cleveland. I predict the Cavs will get out to an early lead and use their home court to their advantage, holding off the Magic's comeback efforts. Cleveland will win and cover in game five!

Rating: 2 Units

One has to wonder how much different this series would have been had Williamson not gotten injured in the play-in game against the Lakers. Without him, the Pelicans have sputtered mightily on the offensive end of the floor, failing to put up more than 92 points in any of their three games. Their O rating is a measly 96.7 and their effective field goal percentage of 45.7% fails to instill much in the way of confidence. New Orleans doesn’t have the pieces to match up on the defensive end either as Valanciunas logged only 12 minutes in Game 3 while Ingram has struggled to try and contain Holmgren. Oklahoma City has too many weapons and they have a ton of momentum on their side. Look for the Thunder to close things out, leaving the Pelicans to wonder what might have been.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves have won four of their last five games and five of their last seven road games. They are playing very well offensively, scoring 117 points per game while making over 48 percent of their shots in the playoffs. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making 88 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been very good and they grabbed more than 12 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. The Suns aren’t very good defensively and they haven’t played well in this series, giving up 120 points or more in two of their three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Timberwolves in this game. The Suns have lost three straight games and three straight home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and averaged less than 100 points per game in their first three games. Their ball movement hasn’t been good and their rebounding has fallen off as well, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Timberwolves, who average more than eight steals per game. The Timberwolves were one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season and they’ve played better in the playoffs, holding Phoenix to 99 points per game, so expect them to keep their offense in check.

Rating: 2 Units

The likely loss of Robinson to an ankle injury is massive for the Knicks. Robinson was a menace on the glass in games one and two and gave the Knicks a legitimate option to harass Embiid when Hartenstein left the floor. With Robinson missing the entire second half, the Knicks' advantage on the glass disappeared. Game three was the first game of the series the Sixers won the rebounding battle, 36-32. Brunson broke out for 39 points but the Knicks bench had its worst game in game three as the Sixers seemed to focus in on the likes of Brogdanovic and McBride. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey continue to look for support and may have found some in Oubre in game three with his 15 points. The Sixers have a great opportunity to knot the series at two games apiece today and will do so with the Knicks bench taking a major hit without Robinson.

Rating: 2 Units

The Denver Nuggets know how to win playoff games. Denver has won all three games and game three was their best performance of this series. This is not a good sign for the Lakers. The Nuggets are 5-0 in their last five playoff road games. While James and Davis have been solid, they don’t have the depth to beat this Nuggets squad as seen in game three. Aaron Gordon dropped 29 points for Denver. The Nuggets continue to dominate the boards. They have out-rebounded the Lakers in all three games including 51 boards compared to only 38 by the Lakers on Thursday. Los Angeles has not been able to score enough points in this series despite shooting 49% due to the rebounding margin. The Nuggets have held the Lakers to an average of 102 points in the series. They have now beaten the Lakers in 11 straight meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando has to play its best basketball to win again in game four, and while it won't win by double digits, I do believe it can cover the two-point spread. Cleveland didn't put up much of a fight in game three, and while it should compete better today, it won't be enough. Like they did in the first two games, the Magic kept the Cavaliers under their shooting average from long range. However, in game three, they easily dominated on the boards and kept Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen from scoring too many easy buckets at the rim. The return of Jalen Suggs was crucial, as he added 24 points on offense and helped make Mitchell (6-for-16) more uncomfortable than he was in the first two meetings. I don't expect too much to change in game four, with the Magic bullying the Cavaliers on their home floor to even up the series.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have clashed seven times since November. Indiana is 5-2, including a 2-0 home record, because they've scored more than 120 points in all but one of those meetings. Considering that the Bucks have only scored more than 115 points once in April (117 on April 10), this game does not bode well for them. As is, Milwaukee has plenty of issues on the road, hence their 18-22 (16-24-0 ATS) record in away games. With a cold offense, no Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a defense that can't contain the Pacers, the Bucks are in danger. Milwaukee's weak offensive rebounding also doesn't challenge Indiana's awful defensive rebounding, an area where they could get points back. Take the Pacers to win by more than five points again now that this series is in Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Rating: 2 Units

It is truly now or never for the Sixers in game three at home vs. the Knicks. This should be an angry bunch after coughing up a five-point lead in the final 30 seconds of the game on Monday night. The Sixers can blame the refs but they also know that they were dominated on the glass and physically dominated down the stretch. The Sixers' defensive strategy against Brunson has worked brilliantly and the Sixers have held the Knicks offense in check overall. Back at home, I expect the Sixers to get better performances out of the likes of Oubre and Harris to ease the burden of Maxey and Embiid to lead the Sixers to win. Batum should also have a stronger game after being limited offensively in the first two games. The Knicks have been a bit lucky in the first two games, losing in each game before rallying to victory. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Magic lost Suggs for nearly all of game two, but he's ready to play in game three. If he's close enough to 100 percent healthy, he'll give Orlando a capable defender to chase Mitchell and a three-point threat on offense. I expect he and Gary Harris to play much better in today's environment, providing a boost for the home team. With reliable performances from complementary players, Orlando will figure it out offensively. Protecting the paint on defense is another key, as Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen have scored too many easy buckets at the rim. Considering how poorly the Cavs have shot the three-ball in both games, reducing rim scoring is crucial.

Rating: 2 Units

There wasn’t a whole lot to write home about offensively in Game 1 for either side. Both teams shot below 45% from the field and under 33% from beyond the arc. There has to be some positive regression for both teams in this contest but the fact remains that New Orleans is going to have to control the glass as they did in Game 1 to keep them in the mix. Oklahoma City has the best player on the floor with Gilgeous-Alexander and if their youth shakes off the rough shooting night in the opening game of the series, they should take the victory at home. With that said, expect the Pelicans to keep it close and cover the line. Straight up, the Thunder are the call but getting this many points after hanging tough in the opener, take the Pelicans with the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana's offense rarely gets held under 110 points, let alone 100. Game one was a welcome to the postseason for them, but they should be the same team that haunted the Bucks all regular season. As for Milwaukee, their offense's inability to score 110 points again is concerning. In a matchup that features two heavily offensive-minded squads, the Pacers are more trustworthy right now. Milwaukee can't take advantage of arguably Indiana's greatest defensive weakness, rebounding. Expect the Pacers to bounce back with a win.

Rating; 2 Units

The Los Angeles Lakers needed to beat the Pelicans in the play-in round just to get to this series. They were outmatched in game one. The Lakers struggled against the Nuggets this season, dropping all three meetings. These were not close games. All three defeats were by eight or more points and they dropped game one by 11 points. These combatants met in the conference finals last year with the Nuggets earning the dominating sweep. Denver has now beaten the Lakers in each of the last nine meetings. The Lakers rely on the scoring to win games but Denver has the better offensive rating and is the superior defensive squad by a big margin. Anthony Davis is not going to have his usual success considering he is up against Nikola Jokic. Davis only averaged nine boards against the Nuggets this season. Jokic averaged 29 points against the Lakers and scored 32 points in game one.

Rating: 2 Units

It says a lot that the team with the higher seed and home-court advantage is the underdog in this one. Indiana had their number all season long. Also, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the best player in this series for either team, is unlikely to suit up for the Bucks due to a calf injury. Milwaukee's main issue is that they can't exploit Indiana's weak defensive rebounding. The Pacers' offense is too explosive and efficient to let those opportunities slip. That's without accounting for the fact that the Bucks' defense isn't much better. Take Indiana to beat the tight spread in game one.

Rating: 2 Units

Not having Leonard is a massive blow to the Clippers and without their top defender, it means they'll have issues slowing down the Doncic-Irving combination. Adding in that Harden is probable but battling an injury, means they could be without another key scorer too. Dallas has leaned heavily on the three-point shot, which translates well to the road and against the Clippers, who have taken a back seat on the defensive end. Before the back-to-back losses to end the season, Dallas had covered the spread in seven of their previous eight games, as they return to that trend to kickoff the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

I fully expect this to be a long series between the two teams. I like the Knicks in game one with what should be a sizable chip on their collective shoulders. The Knicks are relatively healthy coming in with Anunoby back at full strength and their two-headed monster at center, Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson, both ready to go and lean on Embiid as often as possible. The Sixers did a great job at the deadline at adding pieces that will be critical to their playoff success. Hield and Lowry give the team more depth in the backcourt and more bodies to throw at Brunson, who is critical to the Knicks' success. Anunoby and Josh Hart should be able to minimize the effectiveness of the likes of Oubre, Tobias Harris, and even Nicolas Batum. The series may ultimately be decided by the winner of the matchup between Tyrese Maxey and Brunson. In game one, I like Brunson to prevail in that matchup and the Knicks others, like Hart and DiVincenzo, to do enough to tilt this game in their favor.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat stole a win from the Bulls' clutches in last year's Play-In Tournament and robbed the Bulls of a chance at the playoffs. This season, the Bulls look like a motivated team heading back to South Beach. The potential loss of Butler for the Heat is far more significant than the potential loss of Caruso for the Bulls. While Caruso has been a solid distributor and reliable defender, Butler is the heart and soul of the Heat. Butler nearly carried the Heat to a title last year and his ability to isolate greatly enhanced the play of the Bulls role players. The Bulls will have to lean on Bam Adebayo if Butler is unable to go. He averaged 22 points per game in three games against the Bulls this season. The Bulls have two players that can drive their offense in DeRozan and White. DeRozan averaged 22 points per game vs. the Heat this season and will certainly benefit if Butler is unable to go and defend him. White averaged over 20 points per game vs. the Heat and will either be covered by a banged-up Terry Rozier, who missed the Sixers' game with a sore neck, or possibly Herro, a defensive liability. Chicago would be more exposed without Caruso against a team that plays at a high-level offensively but the Heat are not that team, certainly not without Butler. The Bulls will avenge last year's loss and move on to face the Celtics this weekend.

Rating: 2 Units

This is truly a fascinating first-round matchup that pits two of the best coaches in the NBA against one another. Few coaches understand how to navigate the playoffs and exploit mismatches better than Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra. On the other side of the court, Sixers head coach Nick Nurse is acutely aware of how to carefully navigate through the playoffs with an injured superstar, as he proved with Kawhi Leonard when the pair won a title with Toronto several seasons ago. With the coaching matchup even, this game will likely come down to talent. In that regard, I'm giving the edge to the Sixers in this one. Embiid is a rather large x-factor for the Heat to try to work around. He has a decided-size advantage over Adebayo in the paint and has looked extremely healthy since returning. The two teams split the season series this year at 2-2 but Embiid missed three of those games. He will force the Heat to either allow him to go one-on-one with Bam or double him which will free up an array of shooters the Sixers have at their disposal. As good as Jimmy Butler is in the playoffs, the Sixers are uniquely suited to at least give him problems with a ton of athletic twos and threes to put on him. Nurse understands that Embiid likely has only so many bullets in the gun for these playoffs and will likely play all out here to avoid having to play a second play-in game. The Heat have been there and done that having played two play-in games last year. The Sixers won't have to worry about that.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are only getting 1.5 points on the spread, if you are going to back LeBron here, the money line is the play. This will be the brightest lights of the season, as everyone will tune in to see who will advance in this Play-In Tournament game, and looking at the stars, only LeBron and AD have proven they can play on the biggest stage. Zion is having a strong finish to the year, and is finally healthy, but his game is still relatively one-dimensional, designed on attacking the rim and scoring in the paint. The Lakers are huge inside, Anthony Davis is one of the best post defenders in the league, and LeBron always has the opportunity to switch onto him late if needed. LeBron is more perimeter oriented, but he is three inches taller than Zion and still an elite defender when he wants to be. The Lakers have gone big in recent lineups, starting Hachimura, and bringing the athletic big Jaxson Hayes off the bench. The Lakers won three of four matchups against the Pelicans this season, and they cannot afford trying to dodge Denver and putting themselves in a must win next game. The Lakers get their spot in the playoffs in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have won two of their last three games and nine of their last 11 road games. They are playing well offensively and scored more than 118 points per game in their last three games. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and grab more than 12 offensive rebounds per game on the road, which will lead to extra-scoring chances. They also cut down their turnovers in recent games and won’t give the Clippers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Clippers have struggled defensively, giving up more than 112 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rockets in this game. The Clippers have won four of their last six games, but they dropped their last two home games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored less than 110 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Rockets and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Rockets, who average more than seven steals per game. Even though the Rockets have struggled defensively, they played better in their last three games and they will be facing Los Angeles’ reserves in this game, so expect them to keep the Clippers’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

There are several game-time decisions on both squads with key players that could affect the outcome of this game. However, given that this is the last game of the season, don't be surprised if the vast majority of those players miss this game. Either way, the best player on the floor for both teams, Victor Wembanyama, is available for the Spurs and that will make all the difference. The odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award has been brilliant down the stretch on both ends of the floor. He's dominated the paint on defense and taken on more of a scoring role offensively. The Spurs come in with a lot of momentum after their upset win over the Nuggets on Friday night and I expect them to end on a high note here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks feel confident in securing the two seed in the Eastern Conference race and with that, they could sit out a few players. Giannis has already been ruled out and that alone could be enough to take them out of a rhythm on both ends. For Orlando, they expect to have a near full complement of players and it'll be great for them to grab a win and finish the season strong. With a win against the Bucks already under their belts, they'll be confident in being able to replicate that in this one. Orlando has covered the spread in two of three meetings this season between these two, as they make it a third time in this one.

Rating; 2 Units

With the two-seed still within arm's reach, New York will play spirited basketball in front of its home crowd on Friday. The Knickerbockers are getting right just in time for the NBA playoffs, as the return of OG Anunoby has cemented their status as an elite Eastern Conference team. In the last matchup with the Nets, NY's defense was the story. Brooklyn scored just 93 points, as it shot 12-for-35 from three-point range and was outscored 48-35 in the paint. The Nets also committed 15 turnovers and gave up 18 fast break points. Bettors can expect more of the same on Friday at MSG, as New York's interior defense is tough (6th in opponent rim FG%) and Brooklyn struggles from the mid-range (27th in mid-range FG%), which puts too much pressure on it to hit three-pointers. The Knicks will win the battle for NYC, securing a double-digit victory tonight at The Mecca!

Rating: 2 Units

They say it is hard to beat the same team three times in a season. Well, how does that expression change when a team has already beaten them four times in a row, and are going for their fifth? It seems the Pelicans just have Sacramento's number. De'Aaron Fox averages 8 points under his average against New Orleans this season, as he is at 26 per game on the season, but only averages 18 against the Pelicans. The Pelicans also have the most to play for in this game, as they have the most realistic chance to stay in the six-seed with a win, while Sacramento would need many other results to fall their way to get up to 6th. Sacramento has not been the same team without Huerter and Monk, as they have lost three of their last four. Malik Monk was important to the Kings at crunchtime, and leaves Fox alone as the sole shot creator on the perimeter. Zion is healthy and is starting to show that potential he flashed years ago, and CJ McCollum is on fire, scoring at least 29 in his past four games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics do not have any motivation to win this game tonight. While the Knicks are fighting for the best possible spot in the playoff standings, Boston is already locked into the #1 spot in the Eastern Conference. With that in mind, the current designation of Porzingis and Horford as game-time decisions seems to be a bit translucent. You can almost guarantee that both will again be absent for this game given the intensity the Knicks will bring to this game and the Celtics not wanting to risk injury to their two big men. The Knicks' Brunson is playing himself into a likely top-five MVP finish with his play and he will do his best here to will the Knicks to win. I like the Knicks to bring the intensity and purpose of a team still fighting for the best seed and the Celtics being unable or even unwilling to match that intensity in a meaningless game for them.

Rating: 2 Units

Tonight,we focus on Milwaukee, who comes in off a revenge battle on this court against Boston. That sets the table as the Bucks bring a 2-5 ATS ledger into this contest since the new year began in games when coming off a same-season revenger. It meshes with Milwaukee’s 1-5-1 ATS mark in home games after battling Boston. Tie it into Orlando’s Friday, sterling 46-26 ATS overall mark in all games this season and we're on the Magic tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami may have sent a message by updating their injury report right before the Atlanta game. Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier, Kevin Love and Nikola Jovic were all added for minor injuries that were not previously listed. It is possible Miami will begin to prepare for the playoffs, and not put their best lineups on the floor for the final games. Miami cannot fall to the 9th spot, losses do not necessarily hurt them, and it is very unlikely they can jump all the way to six. The injury report may might be the first step in resting some of their stars down the stretch. Dallas is in the fifth spot in the West, but could fall to seventh with a disastrous finish. Dallas needs to hold on to their top six spot to ensure they are not in the Play-In Tournament. Matchup wise, Doncic and Irving are both healthy and their games have complimented each other recently. Dallas has ironed out their lineup with the two stars and role players that know their jobs every night. Dallas needs this one more and will cover the spread in Miami.

NBA Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Phoenix will be anxious to avenge a 138-111 beatdown at L.A. in January, knowing they are 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS in games when avenging a loss of 25-plus points. That’s not good news for a group of paper clips who stand 5-12 ATS against foes with same season revenge on their minds from a loss of 20-plus points, including 0-5 ATS in the last five games – not to mention that Phoenix Suns are 12-2 ATS in Last Home Games they win outright, including 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Finally, Phoenix is 5-1 SUATS in this series when looking to avenge a same-season loss of 25-plus points, including 5-0 SUATS when the Clippers sport a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are trying to hang on for home court advantage in the postseason though in different forms. The Knicks showed grit rallying to down the Bucks after trailing by double digits at the half on the road Sunday but Brunson can’t carry the load by himself forever. Chicago won the meeting Friday night in their previous matchup and they have home court advantage going for them here. Injuries have taken a toll on the Bulls with LaVine and Williams out of the mix. Similarly, the Knicks lost Randle for the season but they have gotten production from DiVincenzo and Hart as part of their three-and-D wing players. New York has more at stake for themselves here and they find a way to pull out the win on the road.

Rating: 4 Units

The UConn Huskies were the betting favorite throughout the tournament and now find themselves listed as 6.5-point favorites in the Championship Game. The Huskies have been dominant in their postseason run, as their closest contest was the 14-point win in the Final Four. All five starters scored 12 or more in that game, as they were led by their freshman Stephon Castle with 21 points, and big man Donovan Clingan (7-2, 280) contributed another 18 points and five rebounds. Tristen Newton is their First Team All-American Guard, he averages 14.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.2 APG as a 6'5 senior. Newton had 12 points and nine assists in the Final Four win. Cam Spencer is the best shooter on the team, the 6'4 senior guard has 98 made threes and is not far behind Newton in scoring with 14.4 PPG. Spencer has scored in double figures in every tournament game so far. Donovan Clingan is one of the rare players in the nation that can match up with Zach Edey and not give up much size, he is a 7'2, 280-pound sophomore center getting 13.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG. Alex Karaban is a 6'8 sophomore getting 13.5 PPG and can stretch the floor with his jumper. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman getting 11.0 PPG and is coming off the team-high in the Final Four. Conn is the top overall ranked team in KenPom. They also have the top-rated offense in terms of efficiency and rank 4th in defensive efficiency. They play even slower than Purdue does, ranking only 328th in the nation in pace of play Finally, Big East teams are 8-1 ATS while Big 10 teams are 0-6 ATS L18Y in championship contests.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn is playing for the second straight night here and have nothing to play for at this point after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Nets have sputtered offensively and have been less than inspiring all season long. Sacramento has fallen into the play-in tournament field and hope to try and push back into the actual guaranteed playoff field but they need to win some games plus get some help. The losses of Huerter and Monk have taken perimeter shooting options out of the mix. Still, Sacramento has something to play for and the rest advantage in this contest. Look for the Kings to come up with the victory in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls take the court in Orlando amid a battle with Atlanta as both teams look to avoid the 10-hole in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They’ll do so with a healthy dose of same-season triple revenge on its mind, with Orlando trying to do its best to stay focused after coming off Friday’s visit to Charlotte, where the Hornets were nesting with an identical same-season triple revenge motive. The question is whether or not you can blame the Magic for not being fully focused here tonight. With the Bulls bringing a brawny 10-3-1 ATS mark in games with same-season triple revenge from Game 70 out and Orlando 0-3 SUATS in games in the second half of opposing same-season triple revengers.

Rating: 2 Units

It appears as though the pressure has hurt the young talented roster of the Houston Rockets as they have lost four straight while attempting to move into 10th place in the Western Conference. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four of the last five. Dallas is closing in on securing a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the play-in round of the postseason. Dallas has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games. Dallas has the sixth best offense in scoring, averaging 118.2 points per day and is 11th in field goal shooting percentage while 10th in 3-point shooting percentage. Dallas has won nine of its last 10 straight up and that includes defeating the Rockets last week 125-107 in Houston, while covering the spread in the process.

Rating: 4 Units

The Huskies will cover another large spread. They're 4-0 ATS in the tournament and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. While not usually high-tempo (315th in schedule-adjusted tempo), they can adapt to a faster pace, which will be required against the Crimson Tide (9th in adjusted tempo). They scored 80, 87, and 99 points in three games against more defensive-minded Xavier (35th in adjusted tempo) and UNC (42nd in tempo) squads. Alabama will find this matchup challenging, as Connecticut holds its opponents to 30.9 percent from beyond the arc and discourages them from taking a lot of threes (33.2 percent of their total shot attempts). It also ranks 2nd nationally in two-point defense and 1st in points per shot allowed at the rim. The Tide live and die with a rim-and-three-based offense — I bet on the latter outcome in the Final Four.

Rating: 2 Units

This is such an intriguing matchup. You have the Cinderella Wolfpack going up against a Purdue team riding the redemption train fast down the track. The Boilermakers come into this game with all the accolades and the best player in the tournament in Edey. The Wolfpack comes into this game with a defense that has held every team in the tournament to under 40 percent shooting including a season-low 32 percent by the Blue Devils in the South Region final. The Wolfpack are the hottest team in the tournament with nine straight wins and have been led by Burns and his ability to score in the paint and find his teammates in passes from the post. I think Purdue will get to the tournament final game on Monday night but I don't think it will be easy. Giving the Wolfpack nearly ten points is too much for a team that has covered every game this tournament and has been an underdog in three of the four games. The Wolfpack have enough bigs to throw at Edey to at least make him uncomfortable. They are not going to stop him but they can at least make him work. While Purdue was one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the regular season, they have not been as efficient in the tournament and now face an NC State team that has been very good against the 3-point shot in the tourney, holding teams to 24 percent shooting. Burns is crafty enough in the paint that he will get his points, even with Edey's large presence looming. This one will come down to the wire. I have faith in NC State's ability to defend and keep pace with Purdue.

Rating: 2 Units

Interesting matchup between two teams that appear to be unraveling at the wrong time of the season. For the Cavs, much of it has to do with injuries to All-Star guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Both players were expected back at press time when the Cavs hosted the 76ers a week ago Friday, and it’s safe to say the team needs Mitchell like blood as Cleveland was 11-13 this season sans his services. With it, the young Cavaliers bring an 8-4 ATS road dog log into this contest in games with a revenge chip on its shoulder. Meanwhile, the Lakers return to La La Land following a six game road trip across the county with a lousy 5-13 SUATS mark at home coming off the three-plus game road soiree. Finally, Cleveland is 11-3 ATS as a road dog in this series with a greater than .400 win percentage, including 3-0 SUATS during the second half of the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics have been dominant at home, they haven't lost on their home floor in over two months, and their whole rotation is healthy. Boston does not appear to be resting any players yet, as every starter played at least 29 minutes last game. Boston is taking on Sacramento on the second game in two nights for the Kings. Boston just had that similar set up against the Thunder. Oklahoma City played the 76ers, then the Celtics in two nights, and by the time they got to Boston, the Celtics sent them home with a 35 point loss. Sacramento is dealing with injuries, their offense is designed to surround Fox and Sabonis with shooters, but both Huerter and Monk are out. Monk was one of their top scorers, and gave life to their second unit which will now be missing. Porzingis can battle Sabonis inside, last time Sabonis played the Celtics he only finished with 13 points. Similarly, Fox will be thrown off his game by the defensive pressure of Holiday. This leaves Tatum and Brown to focus on offense and dominate the Sacramento wings.

Rating: 2 Units

Pacers 3-7 ATS as a favorite against Western Conference opposition this season. Indiana got lucky with back-to-backers against lifeless Brooklyn before tonight’s clash, but if they take on the role of favorite, be aware that Oklahoma City is 8-3 ATS as a road dog in this series, including 7-1 ATS in games in which the Pacers sport a sub .600 win percentage. We can add a pinch of revenge to the mix as the Thunder dropped a 10-point decision to Indiana as 5.5-point home chalk three weeks ago. The bottom line is both teams appear firmly entrenched in the playoffs, but OKC is still battling for the top spot in the West.

Rating: 2 Units

Even though they'll be on the road, the Magic will dominate this matchup and come away with the cover and win. Charlotte has been one of the league's worst teams of late and with an injury report that is nearing the double-digits, it's difficult to imagine them having the depth to compete in this one. Orlando leads with their defense and against a Charlotte team whose leading assist-man is averaging just over three a game, the Magic will have no issues lowing them down. Add in plenty of capable scoring and no notable injuries to worry about, means Orlando will dominate. The Magic have covered the spread in five-straight in the series, as they extend that in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Clippers defeated the Nuggets the last time these teams met, that snapped an eight-game winning streak for Denver against Los Angeles. That included three straight victories in Los Angeles. Look for the Nuggets to be favored by three. Denver is playing exceptionally well, winning 17 of their last 21. That has vaulted them to the top of the Western Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Clippers saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, but they are just 5-5 in their last 10, including losing three straight games at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Rockets are performing like gold at the right time of the season and we’re not keen on stepping in front with a Warriors team that was on a 5-6 SU slide. Golden State doesn’t land in a money-making role either: The City enters off a same-season double-revenge contest at home against the Mavericks, and they’re just 8-13-1 ATS this campaign in games when coming off same-season revengers, including 3-9-1 ATS versus foes with winning records. Finally, Houston is 15-4 ATS with same-season double revenge versus .500 or greater opponents from game 68 out, including 5-0 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat have won three straight games, but two of those were against bottom of the league teams in Portland and Washington. The Heat will likely still be without Tyler Herro, and the 76ers are still unsure if Maxey will play. As for the 76ers, it looks as if they want to use the end of the season to get Joel Embiid back into playing shape. He was visibly fatigued last game, but he was still 12-12 from the line, and had a strong showing in just his first game back. Expect him to slowly return back to his normal form, which is dominating on the inside. Miami is small defensively, Adebayo is a tough defender, but is just 6'9 and gives up plenty of size to the 7'0, 280-pound Embiid. Even without Maxey, Philly still has perimeter players that can step up and score including Hield and Oubre. Oubre has been particularly hot lately, and has welcomed the bigger role by scoring at least 25 points in each of his last two games. Duncan Robinson has been cold lately, and Nikola Jovic doesn't do much in the starting lineup, Philly will look to steal a game here, and stay out of the 9-seed.

Rating: 2 Units

Conventional wisdom suggests that I go with Seton Hall in the championship game. They have done a much better job on the defensive end overall than the Sycamores in the tournament and have held the opposition to nearly 15 points less per game than Indiana State. The Sycamores feel like a microcosm of the current state of college basketball: they play fast, shoot the three often, and have a stretch five capable of scoring in the paint and on the perimeter. That fast play has led them to average over 90 points per game in the NIT. The difference for the Sycamores is, that despite playing so fast, they rarely turn the ball over. They get up more shots than the opposition and they shoot the ball at a higher rate than the opposition. This team has been playing with a chip on its collective shoulders since being snubbed for the NCAA Tournament. They are playing with that mid-level conference edge and they will be playing in front of a mostly Sycamore-driven crowd. Remember, the Sycamores come into this game at 19-1 in the state of Indiana this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves will dominate en route to a win and a cover in this one, as they take care of business at home. Both teams are coming off of a game on Tuesday night and Minnesota's depth, as compared to nearly ten injured for Toronto, will power them through. Beyond that, the Raptors come in without a win in their last ten games, with those struggles carrying out into this one. Minnesota is one of the league's best and most efficient teams on both ends of the court and there's no doubt that they'll dominate at home, where they have one of best marks in the NBA. Toronto has only covered the spread once in their last ten games and they certainly won't make it a second time in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics take to the floor looking to even the score from a 127-123 loss at OKC in early January knowing they are 7-3 SUATS this century in this series when playing with revenge from a loss of 7 or fewer points, including 3-0 SUATS during the second half of the campaign. One problem, though, is Boston returning home from a six-game road trek, which would normally put them in ‘play against’ terrain, but the feeling here is there are too many mitigating circumstances working against the Thunder. We told you the Thunder was in a knock-down, drag-out fight for the West lead with the Nuggets and T’wolves and OKC shows up tonight in Beantown playing its third of five straight road games. The Thunder is also in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich, last night at Philadelphia, and at Indiana on Friday. 

Rating: 2 Units

With the way that Sacramento's offense isn't producing right now, this is a tough matchup. Especially without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, two key pieces for their rotation. Los Angeles' defense has been better lately and should hold the Kings under 110 points as most teams do these days. So, it'll be on the third-best offensive rating in the league to score at least 112 points to beat the spread. That should be an easy task, especially since the Clippers are third in three-point percentage against a Kings defense that's 29th against threes. Los Angeles is averaging 119.0 points per game against Sacramento this season. Take the Clippers to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dallas Mavericks continue to dazzle. They have won five straight road bouts and have also earned the win in nine of their last ten games. Golden State is also winning but their last two games were against the Hornets and Spurs. The Mavericks are 2-0 against the Warriors this season. They are the stronger offensive team, averaging 117.9 points per 100 possessions compared to 116.9 points per 100 by Golden State. The Mavericks' defense has been incredible, making them difficult to beat these days. They have conceded an average of only 101.5 points in their last five games. Four of the Mavericks' last five wins have been by double digits.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates have played this tournament like a team that is trying to establish a winning identity and culture in their program. The Pirates, after sneaking past St. Joe's in the opening round, have dominated each of their last two games and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night. The Pirates are hitting nearly 50 percent of their shots and 40 percent of their three-point shots. More importantly, the Pirates' assist numbers are on the rise in the NIT which indicates an offense that is clicking. The Bulldogs are playing well but also playing with little or no margin for error. They have won their three games by a total of 10 points and are giving up nearly 72 points per game in the NIT. I like the Pirates to roll here and get into the NIT finals.

NBA Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Houston stood 7-2 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 20-plus points (lost 111-90 here two months ago, and 122-95 at home during the first week of January). Minnesota also takes the court off a pair of weekenders, currently owning a 0-2 SUATS mark in this series when playing with a greater than .590 win percentage. The Timberwolves are wedged into a tight one here, coming off same-season revengers against the Bulls and Nuggets, with more get-even games on deck with the Raptors (4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS before Toronto) and the Suns. Since March rolled around, Houston was 12-1 SUATS in their last thirteen games. Finally, playing on any .500-plus conference road team with same season double-revenge from a loss, the last by 20-plus points, if they are facing a greater than .666 foe is 15-3 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Five scorers versus three scorers. Indiana State is deep with talent, Robbie Avila gets all the headlines as he should, but this team is packed with high level scorers. The Sycamores have five players averaging double figures, and have a strong balance across their lineup. Avila is a big who can step out and shoot, Swope and Conwell are excellent outside shooters, Larry can handle the ball and Kent is a wing with size who can score and help on the boards. Utah's top player is Carlson on the inside, but Indiana State has their own big in Avila who can matchup with him. Avila is not an elite defender, but he is a smart player who can force Carlson into bad shots, and get him in foul trouble on the other end. Utah has been favored in every game this postseason, this is the first time they will play a team better than them. Utah has not won a game as the underdog since mid February when they defeated UCLA. Indiana State also had a tougher road, as Utah got the advantage of playing a lower seeded VCU team. The Sycamores may not have made the Big Dance, but they will make in to the NIT Final.

Rating: 2 Units

The Atlanta Hawks have been playing well recently, they have won four of their last five, while the Bulls have lost four of five. The Hawks get the extra advantage of the taking on the Bulls on a back to back. Chicago is playing two games in two nights with travel in between. They have a tough opponent in their opening night as well, as they must take on Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the rest of the Timberwolves. The Bulls also have two starters on their injury report, as Caruso and Dosunmu are both battling injuries, which makes the second game of a back to back a likely spot to rest one or both of their important players. Chicago is not deep on the wing, as LaVine is out, and they do not have a big time scorer off the bench. Atlanta has adjusted well to life without Trae Young, they beat the Celtics twice recently, and Murray and Bogdanovic have stepped up their scoring. Atlanta has the 8th best offense in the league in terms of efficiency, while Chicago's defense ranks 21st and may be without some of their best perimeter defenders. Take advantage of the Hawks who are on a hot streak and get to play a Bulls team fresh off a battle against Minnesota.

Rating: 2 Units

The Suns have won the last two meetings between these teams, including the most recent contest in New Orleans. It would seem to make sense to take Phoenix in this contest, and that is the smart bet. Not only have the Suns won the last two, but they have won five of the last seven and are 5-2 ATS in that span as well. New Orleans has lost three of their last four against the spread. Phoenix has won four of their last six ATS, and they have been on a weird run on the road where they have alternated wins and losses over the last eight games. This sets the stage for a victory, and that’s what the Suns will do.

Rating: 2 Units

Celts have had this game circled ever since they fell here in November as an -8.5-point favorite, and then again a week ago as double-digit chalk. That loss snapped an 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS win skein by Boston as a double-digit road favorite and we know they love taking frustrations out on the Hornets, going 25-6 SU and 23-7 ATS in overall meetings dating back to 2015, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when seeking same season revenge. The Hornets are already making vacation plans and they bring a lousy 10-42 ATS mark into this contest in home games in which they lose as an underdog. 

Rating: 2 Units

It is likely that Sacramento will win this game. They have defeated Utah three straight times and in five of the last six meetings between these teams. However, they are just 3-3 ATS in those meetings. In fact, Utah has won against the spread in two of the last three meetings in Sacramento. While the Jazz are an abysmal team right now, their last three losses have been by 10 points or fewer. They are keeping games close, which should give them a good chance of covering the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are dealing with injury issues as the regular season winds down though the 76ers will at least be in the play-in tournament while the Raptors are looking to next season. Philadelphia hopes to get Embiid back before the end of the regular season as his absence has taken a massive toll on the team’s metrics, not to mention their win/loss record. On the plus side for the 76ers, they’re facing a Toronto team that is minus at least three starters (Barnes, Poeltl and Barrett) along with a pair of their top reserves in Boucher and Quickley. The Raptors have dropped 12 straight, seven of which have come by double figures. Look for Philadelphia to pick up the win in this contest to right the ship, at least temporarily.

Rating: 3 Units

This marks the third time in less than a month that these teams will do battle. Duke won the regular season meeting before the Wolfpack vanquished the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament as part of this magical run. NC State is drawing parallels to the 1983 team that Jim Valvano coached to the title with their late season run. It’s hard to argue with a team that won five games in five days just to get in the field, before dispatching Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette to get here. On paper, Duke is the better team but in a one-game scenario, anything can happen, as we saw with Houston losing Jamal Shead, helping the Blue Devils win that game Friday night. Duke should win this game but it’s closer than expected. Take the points and the Wolfpack in this contest. Finally, #10 or worse Seed dogs of more than 4 pts are 13-4 ATS (NC State)

Rating: 3 Units

Purdue has the talent to win it all and now that it has advanced far enough, it doesn't feel like last season's first-round upset is a cloud hanging over the program. Edey has dominated inside, but the Boilermakers are just as lethal from beyond the arc, as Smith (44.2 3PT%), Loyer (45.0 3PT%), and senior forward Mason Gillis (48.3%) are assassins. They're hardly the only long-range shooters on the roster, either. I expect Edey to have a field day against Aidoo this afternoon. The Vols' big man has been carved up by Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and others this season, and Edey is head and shoulders above those guys. While UT held Purdue to 4-for-15 shooting from deep in their November matchup, I expect a better shooting performance from the Boilermakers on this stage. Tennessee is solid enough on the perimeter to lock down most teams, but elite shooting squads have had more success. That includes Creighton (11-for-23 on Friday). I came away really impressed by how Purdue played in the second half of Friday's game. Gonzaga was as hot as any team in the tourney field, but it barely managed 30 points after halftime. The Boilermakers also held an efficient Utah State team under 38 percent from two-point range in the round of 32. The Vols can get hot offensively, but I won't bet on positive shooting regression from the first matchup (33.3 FG%). This is Purdue's best shot at a Final Four. Finally, #1 Seeds are 23-8 ATS off BB SUATS wins (Purdue).

Rating: 3 Units

The Tigers come into this game having been an underdog in each of their previous three games and prevailing in each. A closer look at the first matchup between the two teams reveals some surprising similarities to the way the Tigers are playing now. Back in their earlier matchup with Alabama, the Tigers' defense was outstanding, holding the Crimson Tide under their scoring average and 40 percent shooting. The Tigers have held each of their three opponents in the tournament to under their scoring average and below their 3-point shooting average. The key to victory here will be to limit the Crimson Tide on the glass. The Tide are averaging over 44 rebounds per game in the tournament. In the first matchup, Clemson's front line held their own and matched the Tide on the glass with each team grabbing 41 rebounds. While Alabama is now 9-10 on the season against tournament teams, the Tigers are an impressive 9-4 against teams that have made the tournament this season. Clemson's backcourt is experienced and has played smart as evidenced by the team's drop in turnovers during this run. I think they will keep the run going tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, with both games in Milwaukee. The clubs split those two games. Now they return to Atlanta where Milwaukee won the most recent contest between these teams, but the Hawks have won three of the last four. Atlanta is red-hot right now, winners of four straight games, and they are firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring at least 120 points in each of those games. Milwaukee has dropped their last two contests, and are 5-5 in their last 10. Milwaukee is trying to hold off New York for the second spot in the East, while Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives. The Bucks may win the game, but it will be a close affair.

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UConn is destroying their competition, as they won by 39 over Stetson, 17 over Northwestern, and 30 over San Diego State. Their backcourt carried them in the Sweet 16, as they got 18 points from Cam Spencer, and 17 points from Tristen Newton in the win. Newton was a First Team All-American this season and led the team with 15.3 PPG and 6.1 APG as a 6'5 senior guard. He has scored 13 or more in each of the three tournament games, with a high of 20 coming against Northwestern. Spencer is their outside shooter, he is a 6'4 senior guard averaging 14.5 PPG and has knocked down 94 threes on the season on a red-hot 44.1% shooting from deep. Their big man inside is 7'2, 280-pound sophomore Donovan Clingan, he averages 12.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on the inside. Alex Karaban is another member of the sophomore class, the 6'8 forward can shoot from the outside and adds 13.6 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman guard getting 10.9 PPG, he had 16 in the win over San Diego State. UConn is currently ranked 1st overall in KenPom. They have the top overall offense in the nation in terms of efficiency and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. They play much slower than the Illini, ranking 319th in the nation in pace of play. UConn is 25-11 ATS as favorite and 16-4 road/neutral

Rating: 2 Units

Only the ACC delivered more teams (4) in this year’s Sweet 16, but only the Big East remains unbeaten (6-0). With it, the Blue Birds bring a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark into this contest the past two seasons in this tourney. On the other side of the court, the Vols enter with a wobbly 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS mark in Sweet 16 contests, including 0-3 SUATS as a favorite. They are also a horrible 1-6 ATS laying points in this tournament to teams coming off a win in the Big Dance the past seven seasons. Finally, Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is 24-12-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off an ATS loss, including 3-0 SUATS during the postseason.

Rating: 3 Units

In this tournament, the Cougars have been riding a back-and-forth tightrope, alternating point spread results in each game. And if you’re willing to play the game, you’ll love knowing that No. 1 seeds who allowed 93-plus points in their previous game have bounced back with aplomb in the next contest, going 10-0 SUATS since 1992. And then there is Kelvin Sampson’s 19-5 record outright in his career in games after his troops surrendered 90-plus points in its last game, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Cougars. This pretty much puts Houston into an Elite 8 context on Sunday. Couple that with the fact that there has never been a team to win this tournament that lost the first game in its conference tournament, and suddenly you find the Blue Devils playing with a blue dress, not what you’re looking for at this stage of this tournament. And not when you are 6-11 ATS in Sweet 16 performances, including 2-6 SUATS against .788 or greater opposition.

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks aren't just winning in recent games, they are blowing teams out. The Knicks have won seven of their last eight games and five of those seven wins have come by 12 points or more including the 44-point win over the Raptors on Wednesday. The Spurs have played better but they will struggle on the glass against the Knicks 3rd-ranked total rebounding squad. The Knicks' defense has been outstanding of late as well, now ranking second in the NBA in points allowed per game. The addition of Robinson and the likely return of Anunoby on Friday should give them additional presence both on the glass and defensively overall. Expect another comfortable Knicks win tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

Gonzaga looked more like an NIT team than an NCAA participant. They had just lost at Santa Clara, dropping their record to 11-5 and their NET ranking fell to No. 46 – otherwise known as bubble territory. But the Bulldogs righted themselves quickly, ripping off 14 wins in the next 16 games, and comfortably made the March Madness at-large field as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest. Hence, despite the fact they are only 3-8 ATS in their last eleven Dances, Gonzaga is, in our mind, the biggest winner in the tournament to date. Virginia, Baylor and Kansas have each won titles in the last five tournaments, and they all failed to make it out of the first weekend in any of the four years they didn't win it all. It really makes you appreciate Gonzaga's run of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances. The bottom line, though, is the Boilers appear hell-bent on revenge for losing in the first round in this tournament to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson. Should you have the urge to step in front of Purdue, we can only remind you about Virginia in the NCAA Tournament the year after they suffered the ignominy of becoming the first No. 1 seed team to ever fall to a No. 16 in the 2022 tourney. The Cavaliers stormed back with egg on their face and promptly proceeded to cut down the nets in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

The Magic’s magical season looks to continue tonight in Disney World when they host the Clippers. The Magic have richly rewarded their backers in Orlando this season, bringing a 22-10 SUATS record, including 14-4 ATS when laying points. And they’ll be anxious to lay them tonight as they look to avenge a 16-point trouncing at the Clippers while checking in off back-to-back revenge bouts with the 76ers. That is not good news for L.A., and its 5-25 SU and 9-21 ATS record as a road dog after facing Philly, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams were in a wild, high-scoring affair in the City of Angels Sunday night. The Lakers have won five straight though one does have to wonder how much action Davis and James will see with both guys dealing with lingering injury issues at the moment. Indiana is the highest scoring team in the league though they do have serious defensive issues as well. The Pacers are 21-15 at home while the Lakers have gone 14-20 as the road team this season, even with their wins over Milwaukee and Memphis this week. With the Lakers banged up at this point in time, you have to give the slight advantage to the Pacers as they find a way to prevail in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

After a so-so 11-5 start to the season, the Golden Eagles have been flying high of late, winning 16 of their previous 20 contests while cashing 14 times in the same games. They’ll take the floor tonight, with the fact that Marquette is 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS this season versus sub .666 opponents, including 10-0 SUATS the last ten games, knowing that head coach Shaka Smart is 5-1 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 8 points against ACC competition. That and the fact they are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS when laying fewer than 18 points this campaign. There is no refuting the fact that the Wolfpack have been the darlings of the tourney to date, arriving at the Sweet 16 as the only double-digit seed. This, however, is where the meat begins to separate from the bone as No. 11 seeds have been roasted in each of their last three Sweet 16 appearances by an average of 13 points per game. Remember, with 4 starters from last year’s 29 win unit, Marquette was the No. 5 ranked team in the land in the AP Preseason Top 25 poll.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clones were as good as it gets at the pay window this season, going 26-10 ATS overall, including 26-2 SU and 23-5 ATS versus sub .800 foes. They’re also perennial money makers in this tourney with a 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS ledger as single-digit chalk. Illinois has matched up with Iowa State just twice since 1990, going 0-2 SUATS with both losses by double-digits, which fits nicely with the Illini’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark the last nine game against Big 12 opponents. ISU ranks No 12 in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (40.17) and No. 4 in Scoring Defense (612 PPG). Iowa State gives up just over 61 PPG and the Illini are 0-5-1 ATS this season in games in which they failed to score 73 points. With Illinois head coach Brad Underwood on a 0-4 ATS slide in this tourney against .700 or greater foes, we're on the Clones.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

After a rocky 5-4 start, UNC went on a 10-3 run before the wheels fell off in a 4-5 February. With a puny 20-13 record following a 2nd round exit in the ACC Tournament, the Heels FAILED to make the Big Dance. Even worse, they decided to take their ball and go back to Chapel Hill, spurning the NIT to stew in private over one of the university’s biggest sports embarrassments. Fast forward to now, where the return of Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis took UNC from the pit of despair to a No. 1 seed in this year’s Big Dance. The Westgate SuperBook, however, did not offer as much respect as the Selection Committee when they gave the Tar Heels longer odds of winning it all than No. 2 Arizona. The good news for the Tide is they tickle the twine more than any team in the nation, averaging 90.7 points per game. The bad news is they get ripped for 80.9 PPG on defense, by far the worst of any Sweet 16 team. They also don’t have much positive history in this event, going one-and done in their last two trips to the NCAA tourney, and just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this tournament versus No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Meanwhile, Hubert’s Heels are 33-5 SU and 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points against SEC opposition while Bama is just 1-6 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points this season. North Carolina is on a 10-1 winning run heading into this slugfest! Finally, UNC is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in its last eight contests in The Big Dance – all since Hubert Davis took the reins three years ago

Rating: 2 Units

Don’t look now, but the Pelicans are right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race thanks to the one-two power-punch of forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both of these All-Stars are averaging over 20 points and 5 rebounds per game. As such, New Orleans finds itself in a five-team chase for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a recent 9-3 winning run at press time. They also surrendered a season-high 141 points in a 24-point loss at Milwaukee two months ago, which works well with its 11-6 ATS mark in the series when avenging a same-season double-digit loss. On the other side of the court, the Bucks check in after hosting the Lakers on Tuesday in an overtime loss. After Laker looks, the Bucks are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in non-conference clashes. 

Rating: 3 Units

UConn performed admirably as defending champs this season, going 24-12 ATS in all games, including 22-1 SU and 17-6 ATS since the calendar year changed in January. No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 who won and covered their first two games in this event are 24-2 SU and 20-6 ATS, including 5-1 ATS when on a 3-0 SUATS run. As for the 26-win Aztecs, they’re a money-burning 1-5 ATS as a dog away from home this season, plus 0-2 SUATS in this tournament as a dog of more than 8 points – by an averaging losing margin of 24 points per game. With Connecticut on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six Sweet 16 contests, stepping in front of the Huskies right now is like trying to cross a six-lane highway while wearing a blindfold. 

Rating: 2 Units

All three of Arizona’s wins in this tournament have come against opponents that were coming off SU underdog wins. Arizona is just 2-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 or more points in Sweet 16 contests. Taking it another step further, the Wildcats are just 1-3 ATS in this Tournament against foes coming off consecutive underdog wins. In fact, the Tigers have been dynamite as dogs this campaign, posting a near-perfect 8-1 ATS record. They’ve also not been afraid to get into the ring against quality foes, going 15-5 SU and 13-5-2 ATS this season versus .647 or greater foes. Zona’s recent history in this round, however, has been clearly disappointing: 4-8 ATS in Sweet 16 games, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS against opponents coming off a pair of SUATS wins. With the Tiger Train still thundering down the track – and head coach Brad Brownell standing 3-0 ATS in this tourney when facing an opponent coming off a win, we're on the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

With the way that this VCU defense is playing, Utah's fans won't witness the same offense that got them this far in the NIT. The Rams are not letting anybody touch 70 points against them. Meanwhile, the VCU offense is quietly efficient, especially on threes where Utah's defense is weak. An area where the Utes won't be able to pull away is at the free throw line, as this team shoots 65.5% there. That will give the Rams ample opportunity to close the gap if they're trailing late. This game will probably be tight throughout, but even if it's not, VCU won't lose by more than six. Take them to beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wolves don't have any reason for a letdown in this game as they march on trying to battle for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Wolves are 25-9 at home this season and own the third-best point differential in the Western Conference. The Pistons, meanwhile, have the NBA's worst record and have the third-worst point differential in the NBA. The Wolves should not have much issue slowing down a Pistons' offense that is just 19th in the NBA in field goal shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting. The Wolves also shoot the ball well from long-range and that will be critical against a Pistons' team that is just 22nd in the NBA in 3-point defense. Expect the Wolves to pick up their third straight win on Wednesday night and push the Pistons to their 8th straight defeat.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto is playing without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow, but does it still have a shot at covering the 12.5-point spread? The better question may be, how will they stop hot-shooting Knicks guard Donte DiVincenzo? New York's sharpshooter scored a career-high 40 points on Monday, knocking down a team-record 11 three-pointers. 20 of his 23 field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, putting him eight made threes away from the lead for most three-pointers by a Knick since Evan Fournier hit 241 in the 2021-22 season. He's not the only Knickerbocker who's a matchup problem for the Raptors. Jalen Brunson scored 28 points on Monday and Josh Hart notched his sixth triple-double (11 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists) since January. The backbone of New York's squad has chemistry from their collegiate days at Villanova, making the Knicks a difficult team to play no matter the venue. They'll bury this depleted Raptors roster from three-point range, mixing in the occasional dunk and layup. I'll bet that chemistry shows up again on Wednesday, giving NY enough juice to win and cover as large spread favorites against tanking Toronto.

Rating: 2 Units

UNLV hopes to make it three straight wins and two on the road with a win over Seton Hall today. The Running Rebels have won their two games in the NIT by an average of eight points, holding their opponents to an average of 78 points. On the season, the Rebels are 189th in the nation in scoring. They are 75th in field goal shooting and 173rd in 3-point shooting. The Running Rebels are just 252nd in the country in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, they are 80th in the nation in scoring defense. The Rebels are 122nd in field goal defense and 66th in 3-point defense. The Rebels are 287th in the nation in total rebounds per game and 74th in fewest turnovers.

Rating: 3 Units

Cincinnati may have dispatched a Missouri Valley Conference team in beating Bradley in the second round but that game was at home. The Bearcats were just 4-7 as the visiting team this season and their standout road win came over BYU back in early January. Losing Thomas and Lahkin takes two of the Bearcats top five scoring options out of the mix and makes it tougher to keep up in a track meet situation with Indiana State. The Sycamores rolled up a 15-1 record at home this season, including wins over Drake in the regular season plus SMU and Minnesota in the NIT. Indiana State feeds off the home crowd and their health carries them to a win in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami holds a 7-game safety net from the 10th and final playoff seed, however they’ve lost six of their last ten games overall and have struggled miserably at home this season, going 13-21 ATS overall, including 3-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been golden on this floor in the series, cashing in 12 of their last 18 visits, including 5-0 ATS when seeking same-season revenge from a loss of seven or more points. Golden State arrives holding down the tenth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race, just one leg up on the surging Houston Rockets. With Golden State entering off a down-to-the-wire, last-second loss at Minnesota, look for the Warriors to improve on their sharp 22-11 ATS mark on the NBA road this season, including 10-3 SUATS the last thirteen games, as they slice up Heat on South Beach tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks should be able to power past the Lakers in this rematch. Both teams are among the highest-scoring teams in the NBA and, while neither has been effective on the defensive end, the Lakers struggle on the road defensively. LA is allowing 120 points per game on the road, ranking them just 25th in the NBA in road-scoring defense. The Bucks will dominate the perimeter, ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game against the Lakers' 21st-ranked 3-point defense. The Lakers also turn the ball over far more frequently than the Bucks, ranking 19th in the NBA in fewest turnovers per game compared with the Bucks' 8th ranking. Look for Milwaukee to pick up the win

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs have been outstanding against the spread in their last 11 road games, going 10-1 including their victory on the road in the NIT. The Dawgs are winning by cutting down their turnovers, averaging just 12 per contest in the NIT, and shooting 45% from 3-point range in their two tournament games. The Buckeyes are allowing the opposition to shoot 32% from 3-point range in their two wins thus far but are allowing 84.5 points per game in their two wins. They are also being outscored by four points in bench scoring, while the Bulldogs' bench has outscored the opposition's bench 58-9 in their two wins. Ride with the Dawgs here to keep their NIT success going.

Rating: 2 Units

Sacramento is currently in the heat of Western Conference playoff chase, in a three way in a battle with Phoenix and Dallas for the No. 6 seed at press time, with each team sporting 29 losses this season.The bottom line is they can’t afford to take any backward steps at this stage of the season. Sacramento will take the floor tonight looking to get even from a 112-93 thrashing in Philly back in January, marking its tenth straight loss to the Sixers in this series. With the Sixers just 4-8 ATS in the second of back-to-backers with no rest this season, including 1-5 ATS away, it’s time for the Kings to put a halt to Philly’s dominance tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

This Celtics team isn't just winning but dominating on most nights. They've been doing it shorthanded lately, and that won't be as much of an issue on Monday. As for Atlanta, there are already multiple key pieces ruled out for this one, including Trae Young. So, expect a Boston squad that is already +18 in this season series to win by double-digits. Atlanta relies on their offense, but they've only reached 115 points thrice in their last nine games. Boston is second in defensive rating among NBA teams. There isn't a more efficient offense than the Celtics', who will face no resistance from Atlanta. Take the Celtics to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn is the healthier team, which is saying something, as the Nets are playing without Ben Simmons, Cam Johnson, and three other players. Toronto is going to be without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow. That's a lot of talent that isn't taking the court for the home team, especially considering Toronto traded its best player, Pascal Siakam, earlier this season. Will the Nets coast to a victory? Probably not, but they're still my best bet to cover the spread. Brooklyn can knock down the three-ball, especially when Cam Thomas is in a groove and the Raptors rank 23rd in opponent 3PT%. Their rim defense is also weak (23rd in opponent rim FG%). With Thomas and Bridges leading the way, the Nets have enough offensive firepower to cover as five-point favorites Monday in Canada.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams hung some hefty point totals in their first round games and this will be an entertaining contest. Iowa has gone just 4-8 on the road this season, so they will have to deal with a hostile environment. Utah was a stellar 15-2 at home on the year, including wins over BYU, UCLA, Oregon and suffered a triple-overtime loss to Arizona. The Utes are playing solid basketball at home and they are better on the defensive end of the floor than Iowa, who has been ridiculously leaky in that regard. Look for the home court advantage to pay dividends for the Utes as they earn the win here to advance.