Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-25-22 | Iowa -7.5 v. Clemson | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes have some of the best offensive stats in college basketball. While they clearly haven't been playing world-beaters so far, what's even more impressive than their record is their execution. Individual performance may vary game-to-game, but a well-coached team that executes well will always put itself in a position to succeed. It's also a game between a great shooting team versus a squad that sucks at defending the three-point line. Iowa is 4-0 ATS this season and Clemson is 1-4. Bet the trend and take Iowa to cover. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Connecticut -3 v. Oregon | 83-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have won five straight games. They played well offensively in those games, scoring more than 87 points per game while making over 51 percent of their shots. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They have also done a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ducks a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Butler | 71-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Volunteers are a tough team and they have been sound defensively in the early going. Tennessee will shoot the ball better than we’ve seen so far and it’s tough to have faith in Butler given the fact that they struggled mightily against Penn State. The Volunteers make life extremely difficult for the Bulldogs and that gets them to the semifinals. |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Notre Dame | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has been favored by double-digits in each game this season but it has yet to cover a spread, all while facing the 312th strongest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish should also win this game outright, but it will be important to Bowling Green what the final score is in this game. For Notre Dame, this is just another game, but playing the Fighting Irish will motivate the Falcons. Bowling Green likes to get up and down the court quickly, rating 55th in adjusted tempo, while Notre Dame is 333rd. With the fast-paced style of play, the Falcons should be able to limit the effectiveness of Irish big man Nate Laszewski at times. Take Bowling Green to cover. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Louisville v. Arkansas -15 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units The Cardinals were favored to win their first three games, but they lost all three games by one point. Their offense has been their biggest problem so far, with the team scoring less than 70 points per game while making less than 45 percent of their shots. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Razorbacks and they’re very careless with the ball, which will be a problem against the Razorbacks, who are averaging more than 12 steals per game. They are facing a defense that held its first three opponents under 60 points and will have a hard time scoring against them, so go with Arkansas to cover the spread. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's -9.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see St. John's being the better team on both ends of the court. They are currently scoring the 23rd most points per game and they have the 14th-highest team shooting percentage in the country. Nebraska won't be able to consistently stop them, as they will slowly pull away. Nebraska has had a great start to the season, but they aren't as talented as this St. John's team. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Butler v. Penn State -5.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Bulldogs played well defensively in their first game, they were facing an overmatched team and will have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Nittany Lions. The Bulldogs also played well offensively in their first game, but they didn’t shoot the ball well, especially from three-point range where they made less than 20 percent of their shots. They also struggled from the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They rebounded the ball well and will get extra scoring opportunities that will help them keep the score close. They were very careless with the ball and they’re facing a defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers, which will lead to easy scoring opportunities for them. With the Nittany Lions holding their first two opponents under 70 points per game, the Bulldogs will have a hard time keeping up, so go with Penn State to cover the spread. |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga -11 | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags have the advantage of more continuity than the Spartans in this early-season matchup between two of college basketball's top programs. The Spartans will have difficulty containing the Zags highly potent offense even in this game playing in the unusual confines of the USS Abraham Lincoln. The first half against North Florida gave a good indication of how dangerous Gonzaga's offense can be, as the Bulldogs shot 67% from the field overall. Overall, the Zags had 66 points in the paint and Timme should dominate the interior in this matchup as well. Typically, MSU gradually gets better as the year goes along. This is a tough matchup for them in the early going. |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Rider +13.5 v. Providence | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Handicapping a game early in the season is a completely different process than later in the season. Returning experience is much more important in November, as cohesiveness is a huge part of a basketball game. Rider has plenty of that coming into the year, as four of its five starters are back from last year’s team. The Broncs were on fire down the stretch, making a run to the MAAC Tournament semifinals for the first time in a decade. They covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games, including seven of their final nine road games. Providence is replacing all five of its starters from last year, so Rider is the obvious choice as a large underdog. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | George Mason v. Auburn -9.5 | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units George Mason is undoubtedly improved from last year and has upset some high-quality teams in the past but not teams that play at this fast of a pace. This game will be a true test of English's self-professed commitment to utilize his bench to save his starters. Auburn has more depth, much more size and has already shown that they will once again be among the country's top teams in forcing turnovers after giving even teams with pro players fits. Auburn, under Pearl, isn't in a position to rebuild but simply retool. George Mason will be a better team later in the season but it will take them time to get the new pieces to earn English's trust. This one should be a one-sided Auburn affair. |
|||||||
04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -4 | 81-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Duke and Carolina take the court in the Superdome tonight following the first national semifinal between Villanova and Kansas. This is the first time the rivals have met in the Final Four. It's the 258th game between the college basketball behemoths. Krzyzewski has five national titles on his resume. To get a sixth, the Blue Devils need to solve what ailed them in the 13-point home loss on March 5. However, consider that the Tar Heels are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as an underdog. |
|||||||
04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas -4 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Wildcats will be missing a key component when the squads battle on Saturday in New Orleans for a spot in the national championship game. Villanova standout Justin Moore tore his right Achilles in the final minute of the Wildcats' 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight on March 26. Moore underwent surgery, and the Wildcats are dissecting how to best fill his minutes and responsibilities. Backup Caleb Daniels is expected to slide into the starting lineup for the second-seeded Wildcats (30-7). Kansas has received stunningly good play in the NCAA Tournament from Remy Martin. Not once did Martin reach the 20-point mark in the regular season, but he has done so twice during March Madness and was named Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region after Kansas routed Miami 76-50 in the Elite Eight. Consider that the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. |
|||||||
03-27-22 | St. Peter's +8.5 v. North Carolina | 49-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After Holloway guided tiny Saint Peter's to a championship in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, he became a shooting star in the coaching ranks as the 15th-seeded Peacocks felled Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue in the NCAA Tournament. He is widely expected to be offered the vacant coaching job at his alma mater, Seton Hall, but will not address what he calls "rumors." Saint Peter's defeated Purdue 67-64 Friday in the Sweet 16, using its signature relentless defense to bottle up NBA prospect Jaden Ivey, who finished with just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting with six turnovers. Purdue was rated the most efficient offense in the country by KenPom.com entering the game. |
|||||||
03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Kansas (31-6) hounded fourth-seeded Providence into 33.8 percent shooting en route to Friday's 66-61 semifinal victory, including a 4-for-23 effort from 3-point range. Although the Jayhawks shot just 39.3 percent from the floor, they prevailed behind disciplined defense and were plus-five in the rebounding column. Offensively, resurgent point guard Remy Martin had a game-high 23 points to lead the Jayhawks in scoring for the third time in as many NCAA Tournament games while Jalen Wilson contributed 16 points and 11 rebounds. Ochai Agbaji, a Naismith Player of the Year finalist, had five points on 2-for-8 shooting, by far his lowest output of the tournament, but Jayhawks coach Bill Self indicated the team isn't panicking. Agbaji had four blocks, four boards and two steals while helping to steady the defense. |
|||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Arkansas has won 18 of its last 21 games and has been successful by pushing the pace, helping seven of its last nine get Over the total. The Razorbacks covered the spread in 21 games and also went Over the total in 21 games this season. They also have covered their last five games as an underdog. Duke likes to play fast as well and has gone Over the number in eight of its last nine. I’m betting that this will be the last game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski's amazing career, but I don't like the price on the Arkansas money line so I just took the points with the Razorbacks (+4). In addition playing on any NCAA tournament team in the Elite 8 round if they upset a #1 seed as an underdog in the Sweet 16 round is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1996. |
|||||||
03-25-22 | North Carolina +2.5 v. UCLA | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Tar Heels broke out and won their final five regular-season games, including their long-discussed upset of Duke in Mike Krzyzewski's last home game before retirement. Still, perhaps because ACC basketball had a down year by its standards, North Carolina flew under the radar and entered the NCAA Tournament as an No. 8 seed. First-year Carolina coach Hubert Davis has a theory. North Carolina owns a 10-3 all-time record against UCLA, including the past five meetings. |
|||||||
03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7.5 | 61-66 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating; 5 Units Kansas (30-6) gets fourth-seeded Providence (27-5), which has won 16 games by single digits, including 11 by five or fewer points. Kansas ultimately pulled away from ninth-seeded Creighton, 79-72, to reach the 32nd Sweet 16 in program history. Credit the latest resurgent performance by point guard Remy Martin. A transfer from Arizona State, Martin worked through knee soreness and inconsistency during the regular season before sparkling down the stretch. He scored 20 points against Creighton after a 15-point effort in the Jayhawks' tournament-opening rout of Texas Southern, the first two times Martin led the team in scoring this season. |
|||||||
03-25-22 | St. Peter's +12.5 v. Purdue | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units No matter where you are on the court, beware: KC Ndefo is coming to block your shot. The Saint Peter's forward tallied six blocks in the No. 15 seed's second-round NCAA Tournament win over Murray State. The highlight came in the second half, when he chased down Trae Hannibal and swatted away his fast-break dunk attempt. Ndefo embodies the defensive intensity Saint Peter's (21-11) has used to pull off two stunners and advance in the East Region to the Sweet 16, where they'll play No. 3 seed Purdue Friday in Philadelphia, Pa. |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Houston +1.5 v. Arizona | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Cougars (31-5), perhaps still a little peeved about being given just a 5 seed by the NCAA selection committee, look to take their next step to a repeat spot in the Final Four. Houston did almost everything correctly Sunday in a 68-53 win over fourth-seeded Illinois as Taze Moore scored 21, Jamal Shead 18, and Kyler Edwards 15 points. Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson was so pumped up after the win that he pulled off his shirt during the team's locker room celebration. Houston has won five straight games and 11 of its past 12, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. Arizona is making its first Sweet 16 appearance in six years. |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke +1.5 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After allowing an average of 57.5 points in its two NCAA wins, Texas Tech will need another stellar showing against Duke, which defeated Cal State Fullerton and Michigan State to reach this stage. Freshman star Paolo Banchero had 19 points and seven rebounds in the win over Michigan State. Mark Williams added 15 points, eight rebounds and five blocked shots. illiams, who has 104 blocks on the season, is the first player in Duke history to have five rejections in back-to-back NCAA tourney games. He also had five against Cal State Fullerton. The Blue Devils average 80.3 points per game on the season. Duke won the lone previous meeting, 69-58 on Dec. 20, 2018, at New York's Madison Square Garden. |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Michigan +5.5 v. Villanova | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Michigan was in dire straits toward the end of the Big Ten campaign, losing four of its final eight regular-season games and then bowing out to Indiana in the first round of the conference tournament. The Wolverines also had a stretch of games that were affected by COVID-19, played multiple games without Dickinson, and were without suspended coach Juwan Howard for five contests. But when it has counted the most, Michigan has come together. |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Top-seeded Gonzaga was tested more than expected in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament while reaching the Sweet 16 for the seventh straight time. Now the Bulldogs will attempt to play two strong halves when they face fourth-seeded Arkansas on Thursday night in the West Regional semifinals at San Francisco. The Razorbacks (27-8) will run a slew of athletic players against the Bulldogs (28-3) as they attempt to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight season. Arkansas lost to eventual national champion Baylor last season. |