Rating: 4 Units

The UConn Huskies were the betting favorite throughout the tournament and now find themselves listed as 6.5-point favorites in the Championship Game. The Huskies have been dominant in their postseason run, as their closest contest was the 14-point win in the Final Four. All five starters scored 12 or more in that game, as they were led by their freshman Stephon Castle with 21 points, and big man Donovan Clingan (7-2, 280) contributed another 18 points and five rebounds. Tristen Newton is their First Team All-American Guard, he averages 14.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.2 APG as a 6'5 senior. Newton had 12 points and nine assists in the Final Four win. Cam Spencer is the best shooter on the team, the 6'4 senior guard has 98 made threes and is not far behind Newton in scoring with 14.4 PPG. Spencer has scored in double figures in every tournament game so far. Donovan Clingan is one of the rare players in the nation that can match up with Zach Edey and not give up much size, he is a 7'2, 280-pound sophomore center getting 13.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG. Alex Karaban is a 6'8 sophomore getting 13.5 PPG and can stretch the floor with his jumper. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman getting 11.0 PPG and is coming off the team-high in the Final Four. Conn is the top overall ranked team in KenPom. They also have the top-rated offense in terms of efficiency and rank 4th in defensive efficiency. They play even slower than Purdue does, ranking only 328th in the nation in pace of play Finally, Big East teams are 8-1 ATS while Big 10 teams are 0-6 ATS L18Y in championship contests.

Rating: 4 Units

The Huskies will cover another large spread. They're 4-0 ATS in the tournament and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. While not usually high-tempo (315th in schedule-adjusted tempo), they can adapt to a faster pace, which will be required against the Crimson Tide (9th in adjusted tempo). They scored 80, 87, and 99 points in three games against more defensive-minded Xavier (35th in adjusted tempo) and UNC (42nd in tempo) squads. Alabama will find this matchup challenging, as Connecticut holds its opponents to 30.9 percent from beyond the arc and discourages them from taking a lot of threes (33.2 percent of their total shot attempts). It also ranks 2nd nationally in two-point defense and 1st in points per shot allowed at the rim. The Tide live and die with a rim-and-three-based offense — I bet on the latter outcome in the Final Four.

Rating: 2 Units

This is such an intriguing matchup. You have the Cinderella Wolfpack going up against a Purdue team riding the redemption train fast down the track. The Boilermakers come into this game with all the accolades and the best player in the tournament in Edey. The Wolfpack comes into this game with a defense that has held every team in the tournament to under 40 percent shooting including a season-low 32 percent by the Blue Devils in the South Region final. The Wolfpack are the hottest team in the tournament with nine straight wins and have been led by Burns and his ability to score in the paint and find his teammates in passes from the post. I think Purdue will get to the tournament final game on Monday night but I don't think it will be easy. Giving the Wolfpack nearly ten points is too much for a team that has covered every game this tournament and has been an underdog in three of the four games. The Wolfpack have enough bigs to throw at Edey to at least make him uncomfortable. They are not going to stop him but they can at least make him work. While Purdue was one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the regular season, they have not been as efficient in the tournament and now face an NC State team that has been very good against the 3-point shot in the tourney, holding teams to 24 percent shooting. Burns is crafty enough in the paint that he will get his points, even with Edey's large presence looming. This one will come down to the wire. I have faith in NC State's ability to defend and keep pace with Purdue.

Rating: 2 Units

Conventional wisdom suggests that I go with Seton Hall in the championship game. They have done a much better job on the defensive end overall than the Sycamores in the tournament and have held the opposition to nearly 15 points less per game than Indiana State. The Sycamores feel like a microcosm of the current state of college basketball: they play fast, shoot the three often, and have a stretch five capable of scoring in the paint and on the perimeter. That fast play has led them to average over 90 points per game in the NIT. The difference for the Sycamores is, that despite playing so fast, they rarely turn the ball over. They get up more shots than the opposition and they shoot the ball at a higher rate than the opposition. This team has been playing with a chip on its collective shoulders since being snubbed for the NCAA Tournament. They are playing with that mid-level conference edge and they will be playing in front of a mostly Sycamore-driven crowd. Remember, the Sycamores come into this game at 19-1 in the state of Indiana this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates have played this tournament like a team that is trying to establish a winning identity and culture in their program. The Pirates, after sneaking past St. Joe's in the opening round, have dominated each of their last two games and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night. The Pirates are hitting nearly 50 percent of their shots and 40 percent of their three-point shots. More importantly, the Pirates' assist numbers are on the rise in the NIT which indicates an offense that is clicking. The Bulldogs are playing well but also playing with little or no margin for error. They have won their three games by a total of 10 points and are giving up nearly 72 points per game in the NIT. I like the Pirates to roll here and get into the NIT finals.

Rating: 3 Units

This marks the third time in less than a month that these teams will do battle. Duke won the regular season meeting before the Wolfpack vanquished the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament as part of this magical run. NC State is drawing parallels to the 1983 team that Jim Valvano coached to the title with their late season run. It’s hard to argue with a team that won five games in five days just to get in the field, before dispatching Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette to get here. On paper, Duke is the better team but in a one-game scenario, anything can happen, as we saw with Houston losing Jamal Shead, helping the Blue Devils win that game Friday night. Duke should win this game but it’s closer than expected. Take the points and the Wolfpack in this contest. Finally, #10 or worse Seed dogs of more than 4 pts are 13-4 ATS (NC State)

Rating: 3 Units

Purdue has the talent to win it all and now that it has advanced far enough, it doesn't feel like last season's first-round upset is a cloud hanging over the program. Edey has dominated inside, but the Boilermakers are just as lethal from beyond the arc, as Smith (44.2 3PT%), Loyer (45.0 3PT%), and senior forward Mason Gillis (48.3%) are assassins. They're hardly the only long-range shooters on the roster, either. I expect Edey to have a field day against Aidoo this afternoon. The Vols' big man has been carved up by Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and others this season, and Edey is head and shoulders above those guys. While UT held Purdue to 4-for-15 shooting from deep in their November matchup, I expect a better shooting performance from the Boilermakers on this stage. Tennessee is solid enough on the perimeter to lock down most teams, but elite shooting squads have had more success. That includes Creighton (11-for-23 on Friday). I came away really impressed by how Purdue played in the second half of Friday's game. Gonzaga was as hot as any team in the tourney field, but it barely managed 30 points after halftime. The Boilermakers also held an efficient Utah State team under 38 percent from two-point range in the round of 32. The Vols can get hot offensively, but I won't bet on positive shooting regression from the first matchup (33.3 FG%). This is Purdue's best shot at a Final Four. Finally, #1 Seeds are 23-8 ATS off BB SUATS wins (Purdue).

Rating: 3 Units

The Tigers come into this game having been an underdog in each of their previous three games and prevailing in each. A closer look at the first matchup between the two teams reveals some surprising similarities to the way the Tigers are playing now. Back in their earlier matchup with Alabama, the Tigers' defense was outstanding, holding the Crimson Tide under their scoring average and 40 percent shooting. The Tigers have held each of their three opponents in the tournament to under their scoring average and below their 3-point shooting average. The key to victory here will be to limit the Crimson Tide on the glass. The Tide are averaging over 44 rebounds per game in the tournament. In the first matchup, Clemson's front line held their own and matched the Tide on the glass with each team grabbing 41 rebounds. While Alabama is now 9-10 on the season against tournament teams, the Tigers are an impressive 9-4 against teams that have made the tournament this season. Clemson's backcourt is experienced and has played smart as evidenced by the team's drop in turnovers during this run. I think they will keep the run going tonight.

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UConn is destroying their competition, as they won by 39 over Stetson, 17 over Northwestern, and 30 over San Diego State. Their backcourt carried them in the Sweet 16, as they got 18 points from Cam Spencer, and 17 points from Tristen Newton in the win. Newton was a First Team All-American this season and led the team with 15.3 PPG and 6.1 APG as a 6'5 senior guard. He has scored 13 or more in each of the three tournament games, with a high of 20 coming against Northwestern. Spencer is their outside shooter, he is a 6'4 senior guard averaging 14.5 PPG and has knocked down 94 threes on the season on a red-hot 44.1% shooting from deep. Their big man inside is 7'2, 280-pound sophomore Donovan Clingan, he averages 12.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on the inside. Alex Karaban is another member of the sophomore class, the 6'8 forward can shoot from the outside and adds 13.6 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman guard getting 10.9 PPG, he had 16 in the win over San Diego State. UConn is currently ranked 1st overall in KenPom. They have the top overall offense in the nation in terms of efficiency and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. They play much slower than the Illini, ranking 319th in the nation in pace of play. UConn is 25-11 ATS as favorite and 16-4 road/neutral

Rating: 2 Units

Only the ACC delivered more teams (4) in this year’s Sweet 16, but only the Big East remains unbeaten (6-0). With it, the Blue Birds bring a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark into this contest the past two seasons in this tourney. On the other side of the court, the Vols enter with a wobbly 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS mark in Sweet 16 contests, including 0-3 SUATS as a favorite. They are also a horrible 1-6 ATS laying points in this tournament to teams coming off a win in the Big Dance the past seven seasons. Finally, Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is 24-12-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off an ATS loss, including 3-0 SUATS during the postseason.

Rating: 3 Units

In this tournament, the Cougars have been riding a back-and-forth tightrope, alternating point spread results in each game. And if you’re willing to play the game, you’ll love knowing that No. 1 seeds who allowed 93-plus points in their previous game have bounced back with aplomb in the next contest, going 10-0 SUATS since 1992. And then there is Kelvin Sampson’s 19-5 record outright in his career in games after his troops surrendered 90-plus points in its last game, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Cougars. This pretty much puts Houston into an Elite 8 context on Sunday. Couple that with the fact that there has never been a team to win this tournament that lost the first game in its conference tournament, and suddenly you find the Blue Devils playing with a blue dress, not what you’re looking for at this stage of this tournament. And not when you are 6-11 ATS in Sweet 16 performances, including 2-6 SUATS against .788 or greater opposition.

Rating: 3 Units

Gonzaga looked more like an NIT team than an NCAA participant. They had just lost at Santa Clara, dropping their record to 11-5 and their NET ranking fell to No. 46 – otherwise known as bubble territory. But the Bulldogs righted themselves quickly, ripping off 14 wins in the next 16 games, and comfortably made the March Madness at-large field as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest. Hence, despite the fact they are only 3-8 ATS in their last eleven Dances, Gonzaga is, in our mind, the biggest winner in the tournament to date. Virginia, Baylor and Kansas have each won titles in the last five tournaments, and they all failed to make it out of the first weekend in any of the four years they didn't win it all. It really makes you appreciate Gonzaga's run of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances. The bottom line, though, is the Boilers appear hell-bent on revenge for losing in the first round in this tournament to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson. Should you have the urge to step in front of Purdue, we can only remind you about Virginia in the NCAA Tournament the year after they suffered the ignominy of becoming the first No. 1 seed team to ever fall to a No. 16 in the 2022 tourney. The Cavaliers stormed back with egg on their face and promptly proceeded to cut down the nets in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

After a so-so 11-5 start to the season, the Golden Eagles have been flying high of late, winning 16 of their previous 20 contests while cashing 14 times in the same games. They’ll take the floor tonight, with the fact that Marquette is 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS this season versus sub .666 opponents, including 10-0 SUATS the last ten games, knowing that head coach Shaka Smart is 5-1 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 8 points against ACC competition. That and the fact they are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS when laying fewer than 18 points this campaign. There is no refuting the fact that the Wolfpack have been the darlings of the tourney to date, arriving at the Sweet 16 as the only double-digit seed. This, however, is where the meat begins to separate from the bone as No. 11 seeds have been roasted in each of their last three Sweet 16 appearances by an average of 13 points per game. Remember, with 4 starters from last year’s 29 win unit, Marquette was the No. 5 ranked team in the land in the AP Preseason Top 25 poll.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clones were as good as it gets at the pay window this season, going 26-10 ATS overall, including 26-2 SU and 23-5 ATS versus sub .800 foes. They’re also perennial money makers in this tourney with a 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS ledger as single-digit chalk. Illinois has matched up with Iowa State just twice since 1990, going 0-2 SUATS with both losses by double-digits, which fits nicely with the Illini’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark the last nine game against Big 12 opponents. ISU ranks No 12 in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (40.17) and No. 4 in Scoring Defense (612 PPG). Iowa State gives up just over 61 PPG and the Illini are 0-5-1 ATS this season in games in which they failed to score 73 points. With Illinois head coach Brad Underwood on a 0-4 ATS slide in this tourney against .700 or greater foes, we're on the Clones.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

After a rocky 5-4 start, UNC went on a 10-3 run before the wheels fell off in a 4-5 February. With a puny 20-13 record following a 2nd round exit in the ACC Tournament, the Heels FAILED to make the Big Dance. Even worse, they decided to take their ball and go back to Chapel Hill, spurning the NIT to stew in private over one of the university’s biggest sports embarrassments. Fast forward to now, where the return of Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis took UNC from the pit of despair to a No. 1 seed in this year’s Big Dance. The Westgate SuperBook, however, did not offer as much respect as the Selection Committee when they gave the Tar Heels longer odds of winning it all than No. 2 Arizona. The good news for the Tide is they tickle the twine more than any team in the nation, averaging 90.7 points per game. The bad news is they get ripped for 80.9 PPG on defense, by far the worst of any Sweet 16 team. They also don’t have much positive history in this event, going one-and done in their last two trips to the NCAA tourney, and just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this tournament versus No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Meanwhile, Hubert’s Heels are 33-5 SU and 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points against SEC opposition while Bama is just 1-6 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points this season. North Carolina is on a 10-1 winning run heading into this slugfest! Finally, UNC is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in its last eight contests in The Big Dance – all since Hubert Davis took the reins three years ago

Rating: 3 Units

UConn performed admirably as defending champs this season, going 24-12 ATS in all games, including 22-1 SU and 17-6 ATS since the calendar year changed in January. No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 who won and covered their first two games in this event are 24-2 SU and 20-6 ATS, including 5-1 ATS when on a 3-0 SUATS run. As for the 26-win Aztecs, they’re a money-burning 1-5 ATS as a dog away from home this season, plus 0-2 SUATS in this tournament as a dog of more than 8 points – by an averaging losing margin of 24 points per game. With Connecticut on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six Sweet 16 contests, stepping in front of the Huskies right now is like trying to cross a six-lane highway while wearing a blindfold. 

Rating: 2 Units

All three of Arizona’s wins in this tournament have come against opponents that were coming off SU underdog wins. Arizona is just 2-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 or more points in Sweet 16 contests. Taking it another step further, the Wildcats are just 1-3 ATS in this Tournament against foes coming off consecutive underdog wins. In fact, the Tigers have been dynamite as dogs this campaign, posting a near-perfect 8-1 ATS record. They’ve also not been afraid to get into the ring against quality foes, going 15-5 SU and 13-5-2 ATS this season versus .647 or greater foes. Zona’s recent history in this round, however, has been clearly disappointing: 4-8 ATS in Sweet 16 games, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS against opponents coming off a pair of SUATS wins. With the Tiger Train still thundering down the track – and head coach Brad Brownell standing 3-0 ATS in this tourney when facing an opponent coming off a win, we're on the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

With the way that this VCU defense is playing, Utah's fans won't witness the same offense that got them this far in the NIT. The Rams are not letting anybody touch 70 points against them. Meanwhile, the VCU offense is quietly efficient, especially on threes where Utah's defense is weak. An area where the Utes won't be able to pull away is at the free throw line, as this team shoots 65.5% there. That will give the Rams ample opportunity to close the gap if they're trailing late. This game will probably be tight throughout, but even if it's not, VCU won't lose by more than six. Take them to beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

UNLV hopes to make it three straight wins and two on the road with a win over Seton Hall today. The Running Rebels have won their two games in the NIT by an average of eight points, holding their opponents to an average of 78 points. On the season, the Rebels are 189th in the nation in scoring. They are 75th in field goal shooting and 173rd in 3-point shooting. The Running Rebels are just 252nd in the country in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, they are 80th in the nation in scoring defense. The Rebels are 122nd in field goal defense and 66th in 3-point defense. The Rebels are 287th in the nation in total rebounds per game and 74th in fewest turnovers.

Rating: 3 Units

Cincinnati may have dispatched a Missouri Valley Conference team in beating Bradley in the second round but that game was at home. The Bearcats were just 4-7 as the visiting team this season and their standout road win came over BYU back in early January. Losing Thomas and Lahkin takes two of the Bearcats top five scoring options out of the mix and makes it tougher to keep up in a track meet situation with Indiana State. The Sycamores rolled up a 15-1 record at home this season, including wins over Drake in the regular season plus SMU and Minnesota in the NIT. Indiana State feeds off the home crowd and their health carries them to a win in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs have been outstanding against the spread in their last 11 road games, going 10-1 including their victory on the road in the NIT. The Dawgs are winning by cutting down their turnovers, averaging just 12 per contest in the NIT, and shooting 45% from 3-point range in their two tournament games. The Buckeyes are allowing the opposition to shoot 32% from 3-point range in their two wins thus far but are allowing 84.5 points per game in their two wins. They are also being outscored by four points in bench scoring, while the Bulldogs' bench has outscored the opposition's bench 58-9 in their two wins. Ride with the Dawgs here to keep their NIT success going.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams hung some hefty point totals in their first round games and this will be an entertaining contest. Iowa has gone just 4-8 on the road this season, so they will have to deal with a hostile environment. Utah was a stellar 15-2 at home on the year, including wins over BYU, UCLA, Oregon and suffered a triple-overtime loss to Arizona. The Utes are playing solid basketball at home and they are better on the defensive end of the floor than Iowa, who has been ridiculously leaky in that regard. Look for the home court advantage to pay dividends for the Utes as they earn the win here to advance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Aggies only lost by four on a neutral floor against this team earlier in the season. Texas A&M's rebounding gave Houston problems. The Aggies protect the ball well also, which is why the turnover battle was even in that game. Asking the Aggies to keep this game within single digits isn't an issue at all. Especially since Houston's weak free throw shooting will give Texas A&M extra life late in the contest. Efficiency from the floor may cost the Aggies the game, but they'll have a shot at winning in the waning moments.

Rating: 4 Units

Connecticut ranks as the best team in the country. The Huskies are 1st in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and 324th in tempo (schedule-adjusted). They're 15th in field goal percentage (49.2%), 10th in opponent field goal percentage (39.8%), and 2nd in opponent rebounds (26.0 per game). UConn also ranks first nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.89).

Rating: 2 Units

The thing about Alabama is that the relentless nature of the team's play eventually wears down the opposition. It proved true in their first tournament game as the Cougars hung in for a while but were eventually worn down by the pace of play and the relentless rebounding and perimeter shooting of the Tide. Grand Canyon has been a plus defensive team this season but has not played teams that even approach the tenacity of the Crimson Tide. While the Antelopes are good on the perimeter defensively, they will be less than familiar with Alabama's penchant for launching threes off of the fastbreak. The Antelopes are not pushovers by any means, ranked 55th according to KenPom, but they don't have the depth to keep up with Alabama for 40 minutes. It will be close for a good portion of the game thanks to Grand Canyon's ability to defend in the halfcourt, shoot at a high rate, and rebound. Eventually, however, like the College of Charleston, the Antelopes will wear down and be knocked off by the Tide.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are built similarly, slowing the game down and relying on their offense to optimize the limited possessions. The rebounding battle in this game should be about even. Clemson will probably have a slight edge in ball security. The reason that the Tigers will bring this down to the wire is that their defense is far better at forcing missed shots. Baylor's defense has put on a show against weaker teams recently, but for the season the Bears did not force many misses. Expect Clemson to fight until the end of Sunday's game. They may not win, but they won't lose by multiple possessions.

Rating: 2 Units

The Demon Deacons have been dominant at home this season, particularly on the offensive end. They should have a field day against the Bulldogs and their 239th-ranked scoring defense in this one. Georgia's only advantage in this game is on the glass but that might not be as big an issue against a Wake Forest team that ranks 31st in the country in shooting percentage. I expect Wake Forest to get out and play aggressively and put up a big number against a Georgia team that just won its first postseason game in seven years. This one could get away from the Bulldogs early and they simply don't have the firepower to get back in the game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Minnesota Golden Gophers struggled late in the regular season where they lost four of their last five games. They lost by 10 points in their first game in the Big Ten conference tourney. Meanwhile, the Indiana State Sycamores made it to the finals of the MVC tourney and have won seven of their last eight games. Indiana State is the superior offensive squad here by a big margin. Minnesota is only averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions compared to 119.2 points per 100 by Indiana State, good for 15th in the country. When it comes to defense, the Sycamores have slightly better numbers. Also, this is not a neutral site game. The Sycamores are on their home court where they have only lost one game all season. Four of their last five wins have occurred by at least 10 points.

Rating: 3 Units

Marquette had their issues in the opening half of their first-round game against Western Kentucky but turned things on in the second half to pull away and earn the victory. The Golden Eagles come into the game 26-9 overall and went 14-6 in the Big East in the regular season. Against Western Kentucky, Marquette led by as many as nine in the first half before giving up an 18-5 run over the final 6:54 of the first half to trail by seven at intermission. The Golden Eagles turned it on in the second half, outscoring Western Kentucky 51-26 to win going away. Marquette shot 47.8% from the field, including 13 of 36 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 44-37 in the contest. Kam Jones poured in 28 points to lead the Golden Eagles in the win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays have enough talent to derail the Ducks' momentum on Saturday, and I feel confident they'll play well enough to cover, too. Oregon has players, but it lacks the cohesiveness Creighton has. The Ducks are playing better on the fly, but the Blue Jays have been soaring together for years. The battle between Dante and Kalkbrenner will be exciting, but I'm more interested in the back-and-forth action between Oregon and Creighton's guards. Couisnard made a statement against his former team, and Shelstad has played like an upperclassman, but the former is a streaky, inefficient scorer, and the latter is still a frosh. The Blue Jays' guards are more experienced and won't wilt under pressure down the stretch. I also believe CU's rebounding advantage will be challenging for UO to overcome. Bet on the Blue Jays to win and cover in gritty fashion.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dukes have now won nine straight games including a sweep through the Atlantic 10 Tournament and their round one victory. In those five games, they are scoring 64 points per game while allowing just 61.6 points per game. They are being led by their two veteran guards, Clark and Grant. Clark is scoring 14.8 points per game during this postseason stretch while Grant paces the Dukes with an average of 16.8 points per game. The Dukes are now 2-3 vs. tournament teams with their win over BYU on Thursday. They will once again lean on a defense that is 29th in the nation in scoring defense and 53rd against the 3-point shot.

Rating: 4 Units

NC State is the hottest team in the country. I won't pick against the Pack on Saturday, even against an Oakland team coming off its biggest win in school history. The Golden Grizzlies will not benefit from playing a sub-par defense tomorrow, as they did in the first round versus Kentucky. The Wolfpack held Texas Tech under 25 percent from three-point range in their round of 64 game and will take away the three-ball tomorrow, making the Grizz too one-dimensional. I feel confident NC State can hold Oakland's bigs in check (16 points in the paint vs. UK) after giving up just 20 points in the paint vs. TTU. Offensively, North Carolina State will dominate inside. Burns will attack Oakland's conference POY Townsend, who will pick up fouls and surrender too many points against NC State's bruising big man. With a substantial scoring advantage at the rim, the three-point shot will open up for Horne and others, burying the Golden Grizzlies' season.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cyclones are on the verge of a Sweet 16 appearance as they get set to square off with Washington State today. A Big 12 Title, 29 wins, and a Sweet 16 appearance will certainly put this team among the greatest in school history. They come into this matchup ranked 92nd in the nation in scoring offense. The Cyclones are 52nd in field goal shooting and 106th from 3-point range. They are just 252nd in 3-point field goals made per game. The Cyclones make their biggest imprint on the defensive end. They are 4th in the country in scoring defense. The Cyclones are eighth in field goal defense and 58th in 3-point defense. They are just 287th on the glass but a solid 70th in the nation in the fewest turnovers per game.

Rating: 3 Units

These teams are both playing well but the Gonzaga Bulldogs should be able to win here and cover the spread. With the loss of Kevin McCullar Jr. for the tournament, it is tough to expect the Jayhawks to do well here. Graham Ike could slow down what Hunter Dickinson is able to do in the paint, while taking advantage of less defense for Kansas at the other end. When looking at KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, the Bulldogs are 12th in college basketball with a +22.61 rating while the Jayhawks are 24th with a +18.61 rating. All in all, go with the Gonzaga Bulldogs to win by multiple possessions.

Rating: 2 Units

This game is going to be a tightly contested matchup with two teams that have solid players leading the program. However, Arizona’s Ballo should be able to slow down Dayton’s Holmes down low and that will be a massive difference in terms of against the spread as Dayton is a good 17-15 ATS while Arizona is 21-11-2 ATS thus far. The Wildcats’ offense is the best part of either team and the Flyers’ defense will not be able to contain the Wildcats. Dayton was fortunate to win their first-round game. With Arizona’s size and rebounding ability, go with the Arizona Wildcats to cover the spread and win by double digits.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels bring a 5-9 ATS ledger into this fray in games after zipping past the Zags. They’ve also been vulnerable in the NCAA tourney, dropping nine of fifteen games both outright and against the spread. And they’ll likely have their hands full here against the upstart 29-win Antelopes, champions of the Western Athletic Conference for the third time in the past four seasons. Grand Canyon also brings an impressive array of team stats, ranking in the Top 20 overall in Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Win Margin. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that this year’s resume includes wins over 24-win San Diego State and 23-win San Francisco. Additionally, playing against any opening round NCAA Tournament favorite coming off an upset win in its conference championship game if they beat the spread by more than 10 points and they are facing a foe coming off a SUATS win is 10-0 ATS. Finally, Canyon has been grand in games when coming off consecutive SUATS wins when facing sub .900 opposition, going 18-6 SUATS, including 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS when the Lopes sport an .860 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

Trying to separate 8-and-9 seeds is like splitting up conjoined twins. You never know how successful you’re going to be. No. 8 seeds are 90-86 overall against No. 9 seeds in this tournament. When it comes to the spread, the 8-seeds are 24-22-1 ATS when taking points, including 4-0 SUATS since 2000 with a .800 or greater record. That being the case, the Aggies enter 16-0 outright this season against .666 or fewer foes, while TCU is just 2-4 ATS this campaign when going up against .655 or better opponents. We can’t argue with numbers like those. 

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin was just 2-9-1 ATS in games when coming off a loss this season, including 0-3 ATS in games outside the Big Ten. They also carry the uncertainty of being a No. 5 seed going against a No. 12 seed. Like its football brethren, JMU is making a strong splash in its second year of Division 1 competition as they wrapped up a second 20-win season. Looking over their stat sheet, it was anything but a fluke as they ranked 8th in Scoring Margin, 10th in Scoring Offense, and 14th in Turnover Margin. Hey, it’s why they were one of only THREE teams to win 30 games this season… and note these 10 teams featured rosters dotted with the oldest players, by age: St. Bonaventure, Washington, TCU, North Carolina, St. John’s, Nevada, James Madison, Tulane, Texas, and Seton Hall. Together these teams went 216-111 SU and 166-156-5 ATS for the season, with only one team (the 14-17 Green Wave) failing to produce a winning record. Finally, this same contingent went 20-13 ATS as an underdog when coming off a loss, including 16-7 ATS as dogs of +3 or more points. With the Dukes on the list, a take is in order here

Rating: 2 Units

Safe to say, the Cougars blew it. They were in the rocking chair and had the No. 1 overall seed of the tournament locked up until Cyclone rolled in and blew it all to smithereens when they scored a season-low 41 points in a 28-point wipeout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. For what it’s worth, Division-1 teams are 45-28 SUATS in opening round games of the tournament when coming off a game in which they tallied fewer than 50 points the previous contest, including 4-0 SUATS when they sport a .838 or greater win percentage. Meanwhile, head Cougar Kelvin Sampson is 15-3 SU and 10-5 ATS in his career in games after failing to score 50 points in the last game. 

Rating: 4 Units

Although the Aggies are like vacuums on the offensive glass, they're simply far too inefficient to advance in this one. Nebraska's defense is capable of consistently forcing missed shots until they grab a board. The Huskers shouldn't fear Texas A&M at the free throw line either. The battle on the other end features a mediocre three-point defense against a Nebraska squad that attempts 26.4 per game and hits 35.8% of them. The Huskers hit free throws and protect the ball well enough to optimize their possessions. Texas A&M let their last two opponents exceed 85 points. Roll with Nebraska to advance and beat the tight spread.

Rating: 4 Units

The Hatters have never gone dancing before and now they’re the one team in this tournament that knows beyond a doubt that they’ll get slaughtered. Still, when you’re taking almost four touchdowns, getting slaughtered does not eliminate the possibility of cashing a ticket. Stetson lost by 31 at Houston and 16 at ULNV this season and after playing the majority of its games on the road, it paid enough benefits to land them in this contest. Not enough, though, to overcome UConn’s 5-1 ATS in opening round games as a favorite of -26 or more points – by an average win margin of 38 PPG. And since the Huskies are riding a 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS mark in this tournament since 2009, we’re not going to try on this hat today.

Rating: 4 Units

The Tigers is 6-1 ATS when taking points this season, including 3-0 ATS from non-conference foes. In addition, Clemson enters this fray with a super-sharp 5-0-1 ATS log in this tournament against foes arriving off a win. Now that they’ve appeared to turn the corner under veteran head coach Brad Brownell, we see them possibly deep in this event. NCAA Tournament dogs with a gap of 3 or more seeds are 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS first-round games, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. With that, New Mexico enters this contest, having swept its way through the Mountain West tournament, winning and covering 4 games in 4 days in the process. Prior to the surge, though, the Lobos were riding a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS skein.

Rating: 2 Units

Marquette was the No. 8 team in this season’s AP Preseason Top 25 poll, were it not for an oblique injury to Big East Player of the Year, PG Tyler Kolek. He is one of the most unique passers in the game and leads the nation in Assists Per Game. The Eagles were 22-6 this season with him and just 2-2 without him. If he's back in the lineup, Marquette is a genuine threat to cut down the nets. For now, though, they ride a 1-5 SUATS record of late in this tourney. The Hilltoppers swept the CUSA tourney en route to earning a bid and were 8-3 ATS when taking points this season and 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a win of more than seven points. They are also 7-0 ATS as a dog of late in this tournament..

Rating: 2 Units

The Aztecs rode a winning train right to the title game of last year’s NCAA tournament. Yet, despite an up-and-down campaign this season, which saw them drop 4 of their final 6 games to conclude the season, they find themselves back as a No. 5 seed in a dreaded matchup against a rising 12 seed. Keep in mind that 5 seeds coming off a loss are just 10-21 ATS since 2012, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS when the 5-seed sports a sub-700 win percentage. 

Rating: 3 Units

These disrespected puppies bring quite a bit into this tourney and MUST be respected. The 29- win Bulldogs were also rock-solid in the stat wars this season, ranking No. 5 overall in Points Per Game as well as No. 15 in Overall Win Margin. They also won 29 of their final 32 games after opening the season with a pair of losses at Purdue and VCU. The question is whether Kansas can regroup after losing leading scorers G Kevin McCullar Jr. (18.3 PPG) and C Hunter Dickson (18.0 PPG and 10.8 RPG) down the stretch. Keep a close eye on the injury ticker, as both are expected back during this tournament. For now, though, Sam (not Stan) gets the call

Rating: 2 Units

Drake looked impressive in its three-game run to the Missouri Valley Tourney championship, fending off a pair of strong teams in Bradley and Indiana State to claim the title. Unfortunately, despite winning 27 games last season, and 28 this campaign, the Bulldogs have little to show for it in this tournament, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in this event. Yes, they’re riding a recent 4-0 SUATS win streak but they’re just 8-15 ATS outside the conference the past two seasons, including 2-9 ATS with three or more days of rest. Drake went one-and-out last year, and if the current line stays the same, WSU will bring along a 6-3-1 ATS record as pups this season. Finally, Pac-12 teams are 4-0 SUATS since 1990 when dancing against the Missouri Valley.

Rating: 2 Units

Who would have thought it? The Wolfpack upset arch-rival UNC as a double digit dog in the ACC championship game as they ride a 6-game win skein into this party. Their mission will be to shake a 0-3 SUATS losing skein in this tourney, something that could prove difficult given its 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark in the Big Dance when entering off an upset win. It also doesn’t help to know that ACC tournament champions coming off a SU underdog win are 0-6 ATS in this tournament. With it, the Red Raiders enter knowing they were 0-5 ATS this season against foes coming off a SU underdog win. So, what gives today? TTRR’s 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS overall mark of late in this tournament gains the nod. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Vols have never made a Final Four. Could this be the year? With this year’s party wide open, they likely have as good a chance as ever. However, the biggest weight holding them down is the fact that No. 2 seeds from the SEC are just 22-32-3 ATS in the NCAA, as well as 5-8 ATS when dancing off of a loss. Rick Barnes doesn’t aid the situation, either, with a lukewarm 19-31 ATS career mark in this event (28-26 outright). It all ties into the SEC’s super soft 11-16 ATS mark in first-round games the past five seasons, with only three outright wins coming by 20 or more points. On the other side of the court, the Peacocks love spreading their feathers in this tournament, where they won and covered three of their four games in their most recent engagement in 2022, making it as far as the Elite 8 Round. They were also 21-10 ATS overall this season, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (they upset Fairfield in the title game of the MAAC tourney). Only one way to look here.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

McNeese is led by second-year head coach Will Wade, who previously took LSU and VCU to the NCAA Tournament and will lead McNeese to its first tournament appearance since 2002. His troops dominate the NCAA statistics, ranking No. 1 in Win Margin, No. 3 in both Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Turnover Margin, No. 5 in Defensive Points Per Game, and No. 10 in Offensive Field Goal Percentage. Needless to say, that’s quite a laundry list. Meanwhile, after a lethargic 11-5 start to the season, the Zags closed like a racehorse, but it was too late when they fell to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference title game. With it, they ride a 1-8 ATS overall mark in their last nine games into this tourney contest. That’s not promising news against a 12-seed that can flat-out play, a double-conference champion taking points from a foe that was neither. Finally, McNeese head coach Wade is 3-0 ATS as a No. 8 or lower seed in the NCAA tournament versus .800 or fewer opponents

Rating: 3 Units

We know that No. 10 or 11 seeds who win a Play in game are live in opening round contests and are 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS when facing .750 or fewer foes. A quick glance at the Longhorns’ lousy 11-20-1 ATS overall ledger, including 3-9-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this season seals the deal. And we didn’t even mention Hook ‘Ems haughty 3-12-1 ATS record in this tournament since 2010.

Rating: 2 Units

Nevada did play well outside the conference this season, going 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS but our concern is its underachieving 3-7 SUATS log the last ten games in this event, including a 1-5 SUATS mark against .696 or greater foes. While the Flyers were third-place finishers in the Atlantic-10, they finished just one game back of the top spot. Dayton has endured a three-game losing streak in this tournament but are 5-1-1 ATS in The Dance when they sport a sub .750 win percentage. Strange to see the Flyers as a higher-seeded underdog; however, we’re not about to back down.

Rating: 4 Units

The Gamecocks turned on the jets at the right time this campaign when they closed out the season on a 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS run, including 6-1 ATS away from Columbia. They were also an eye-opening 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS outside the SEC, including 8-0 ATS against non-conference opponents that were coming off a win. They also went 25-9 ATS under second-year head coach Lamont Paris when playing on three or more days of rest, including 20-3 ATS of late. The Ducks won their final four games of the season to capture the final Pac-12 tournament. They also bring a 7-1 ATS ledger in their last eight games into the tournament fray. While there are good numbers abounding on both sides of the ball, our call goes to the hotter Cock squad

Rating: 3 Units

Big Ten tournament champions are just 2-6-1 ATS in tourney openers since 2014. What Morehead State has on its side is the fact that they rank No. 5 in Defensive Field Goal Percentage, No. 8 in Defensive Points Per Game, and No. 76 in Rebound Margin. Those sticky stats are what pulls off upsets during The Dance, even if troubled former NFL WR Antonio Brown has labeled the Eagles as his choice to win this tournament. Finally, the Illini are 3-12 ATS as a favorite under head coach Brad Underwood when facing a non-conference opponent coming off consecutive wins, including 1-9 ATS when Illinois owns a greater than .700 win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

All the talking heads want to discuss is the possibility of No. 2 Arizona facing No. 1 North Carolina in the West Regionals. The stakes would be big – a trip to the Final Four – with Caleb Love, who last spring transferred from the Tar Heels to the Wildcats, trying to defeat his former teammates and his former teammates trying end his season. But that’s the future maybe and fortunately for today’s combatants, they get to stay somewhat close to home by meeting at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The 49ers are 18-7 ATS as a dog in Pac-12 performances, which puts us on Long Beach versus Arizona today. 

Rating: 3 Units

Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot (LeBron James’ high school coach in Akron) led his team to their first NCAA tournament bid in 47 years (1977) as they beat VCU to gather its 4th win in four days and win the A-10 title. Note that 33 such teams have accomplished this feat this century and they’ve pretty much kissed their sisters in NCAA tourney openers, going 15-8 SU and 16-16-1 ATS, but 7-13 SUATS when coming off a win of 6 or more points. Still, they were 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as either a pick or dog this season and since we’re not interested in laying close to double digits today, we suggest you put up your Dukes with Duquesne

Rating: 2 Units

It’s Tom Izzo time, and the tournament knows it, as this marks his 26th consecutive appearance in the event. The Wizard is 21-7 outright in games against the SEC, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS during March Madness. In addition, he also stands 19-6 SU in opening round games in this tournament, not to mention 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS overall in this tournament as either a favorite or a dog of 4 or fewer points against foes seeded higher than his squad. It was a bit of a disappointing season for the Bulldogs, a 21-win team last season that welcomed all five of its starters back this campaign. Yes, they won 21 games again this season, but they entered this contest just 2-4 overall in their last six games. The bottom line is Sparty will be out to prove the aforementioned preseason prognosticators correct, and we’re not about to get in the way.

Rating: 2 Units

Since this is the first year of No. 10 seeds being forced into Play-In games in this event, we’re looking at the matchup on its merits. For openers, the Buffaloes fell to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, a loss which snapped an 8-game winning skein by Colorado. They will be looking to even the score from a 13-point loss against the Broncos two seasons ago as small chalk. The Buffs have beaten the MWC in 20 of the last 27 games in this geographical matchup, with a 6-1-1 ATS ledger in those games when CU is coming off a loss. On the other side of the court, Boise State has taken the gas in all five of its NCAA tourney appearances this century while going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. They are also just 7-12 outright against .700 or greater Pac-12 opponents. With the Pac-12 intent on closing the books on a high note on its fabled conference, it’s preordained the Buffaloes run their footloose and fancy-free way in this final party.

Rating: 2 Units

The San Francisco Dons are the pick here, with their remarkable offensive firepower and sharpshooting capabilities setting them apart. Averaging 77.9 points per game on an impressive 48.9% shooting from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc, the Dons' ability to light up the scoreboard cannot be overstated. Their free-throw shooting is reliable at 75.8%, ensuring they capitalize on opportunities at the line. Defensively, San Francisco is no slouch either, limiting opponents to 66.3 points per game. Key players like Jonathan Mogbo, who not only leads in scoring and rebounding but also contributes significantly in steals and blocks, exemplify the team's balanced attack. The Dons' performance against high-caliber opponents this season shows they're battle-tested and should be able to dominate in this game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Runnin' Rebels come into this game as the type of team equipped to handle the Princeton offense. The Tigers rely heavily on the 3-point shot, ranking 9th in the country in 3-point field goals made per game. The Rebels are 56th in the nation in 3-point defense and are 72nd in the country in scoring defense overall. The Rebels were done in against San Diego State by their inability to rebound but that shouldn't be a factor in this game with both teams near the bottom of the rebounding rankings. It will take a big effort given the fact that Princeton is undefeated at home but I like the Runnin' Rebels as well due to their must more stringent schedule this season. Princeton is 2-1 against NCAA Tournament teams this season but that includes two games against Ivy League representative Yale. The Rebels have had 11 games against tournament teams this year, going 5-6. UNLV is also effective on the road after going 7-3 away from home this season. They have also won 10 of their last 13 games in a tougher conference.

Rating: 2 Units

The ability to control the glass is critical to win games and there is a bit of a difference as Loyola Chicago is averaging 36.7 total rebounds per game while Bradley is grabbing 34.7 total rebounds per game. The Ramblers have been able to keep the offensive numbers very similar and it makes it hard for the Bradley Braves to step up and pull out a lead. All in all, take Loyola Chicago to pull off the upset on the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

While some schools turned down the NIT, Indiana State star Robbie Avila said his team is "motivated as ever." Avila, a center, averages 17.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, and he hits 40.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. "To be able to have that opportunity to come back and win some more hardware is a blessing," he said. Five players score in double digits per game, and the Sycamores are tied for eighth in Division I at 84.4 points per game. Finally, SMU is 3-11 ATS their L14 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Here we go again, kowtowing to the wishes of the Well-Oiled Machine and fading a .500 favorite in the 17-17 Bobcats while using the double-champion Tigers from the SWAC. And why not? Grambling won 20 games with its first SWC conference title. Since 2018, the SWAC has won its opening round game three times in its five NCAA appearances, including two of the last three contests. They’ve also captured nine of their last ten overall games to conclude the season. This is from a unit that started the campaign on a 2-10 downer. Meanwhile, Montana State was picked to finish in eighth place in the Big Sky by the Scribes in a preseason vote but outplayed the press while winning its third-straight Big Sky title. However, they are another No. 16 seeded chalk artist that has struggled in these First Four games. We’ll be gambling with Grambling this evening.

Rating: 2 Units

If it looks strange to find the Cavaliers taking points in this contest, it should. For openers, they are likely the most disrespected 23-win team in the nation. Virginia, a team that was 23-5 outright against sub .730 opposition this season, has faced a total of nineteen No. 9 or lower seeds in this event, winning thirteen games straight up while being installed as the favorite in all nineteen contests! The Cavs’ staunch scoring defense ranks No. 3 overall in the nation, allowing 59.5 PPG. It fits like a glove next to the Rams' 0-4 SU all-time mark in games where it failed to score 80 points in this tournament. Then there’s the fact that Colorado State will be laying points for the first time in the Big Dance this century, checking in five times as a dog. While losing 7 of the 10 games they played against ACC foes since 1990, the Rams must also overcome the fact that the Mountain West Conference is little more than Play Dough in the hands of the ACC in this tournament, going 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS dating back to 1990. 

Rating: 2 units

K-State (19-14) had plenty of Quad-1 victories to hold out hope for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. But too many close wins in the lower quadrants, combined with an unusual number of bid thieves, eliminated any chance of the Wildcats making the field of 68. The Hawkeyes (18-14) also had a chance to make the big dance. They played six games against teams that ended up with top-3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament: Creighton, Purdue (twice), Iowa State and Illinois (twice). Iowa went a combined 0-6 in those games.

Rating: 2 Units

North Texas will use its tough defense to contain LSU's average offense and the Mean Green will find a way to score enough points against a below-average LSU defense to pick up a victory on Tuesday and move on to the second round of the NIT. North Texas allowed an average of only 62.4 points per game which was 7th best in the country and gave up 40.7% shooting which was 31st in the nation. In contrast, LSU gave up 74.8 points per game which was 268th. The Tigers allowed 33.3% shooting from 3-point territory, which was 160th and that plays to North Texas's strength on offense as the Mean Green shot 37.5% from three-point range which was 21st in the nation. North Texas averaged 34.7 rebounds per game while holding their opponents to 29.4 boards per contest.

Rating: 2 Units

This game's line moved from 6.5 to 3.5 following the injury update to Carter, Providence's first-team all-conference guard. His absence limits a Friars squad that depended on the junior to score more after losing Hopkins to an ACL injury. Carter was averaging nearly 20 points on 14 shots per game — who will pick up the scoring slack? The obvious candidate is Oduro (11.2 FG attempts per game), but Providence will also count on more production from Pierre, who will likely attempt more three-balls (4.3 3PT attempts per game) with Carter sidelined.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia (17-16) makes its first NIT appearance since 2017, which also marked the program's most recent postseason trip. The Bulldogs have endured a late-season slump, dropping five of their last seven games -- including their exit from the second round of the Southeastern Conference tournament with an 85-80 loss to Florida. However, defeats of a 20-win Ole Miss team on March 5 and Missouri in the first round of the SEC tournament on March 13 gave Georgia its highest win total since going 18-15 in 2017-18. The Musketeers head into the NIT at 3-7 over their last 10 games against a tough Big East Conference schedule. They closed with an 87-60 loss at reigning national champion UConn at the Big East tournament last Thursday. Georgia is 16-9 ATS in their L25 games overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Western Kentucky is having a strong Conference USA Tournament, winning the first game by 20 points and the second by 31, while holding opponents to an average of 61.5 points per game and scoring an average of 87 points per game. In Thursday’s semifinals victory, Western Kentucky shot 50% from three point land hitting 11 of their 22 attempts. On the defensive end of the court, Western Kentucky made 11 steals and held Middle Tennessee to 31% shooting overall and 25.9% shooting from 3-point territory. Western Kentucky lost its first meeting versus UTEP on the road 93-87, but bounced back at home with a 90-80 victory in the second game between the two. This time around it appears as though Western Kentucky is playing far better defense then when facing UTEP the first two times and will use its new-found defensive pressure along with its high octane offense that has the highest adjusted tempo in the nation, per Kenpom, to win by double digits today. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Zips have won three of their last five games. They’re playing well offensively, scoring 73 points per game in their last three games. They shot the ball better at the charity stripe, making over 76 percent of their free throws during that span. They’re the better rebounding team and they dominated the glass in their first two meetings, so expect them to get a lot of extra scoring chances in this game. They turned the ball over less than nine times per game and won’t give the Golden Flashes a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Golden Flashes played well defensively in their last game, but they’ve given up over 73 points per game in their last three games and gave up 80 points per game in two games against the Zips, so I don’t have a lot of confidence in their defense. The Golden Flashes have won two straight games, including an impressive win over the top-seeded Toledo Rockets. They aren’t playing well offensively and they were held under 70 points in three of their last four games. They’ve also struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 65 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They won’t win the rebounding battle and they’ve been careless with the ball. The Zips held three of their last four opponents under 64 points and they’ve had Kent State’s number this season, winning both of their games by an average margin of 9.5 points, so expect more of the same in this game. Go with the Zips to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

NC State has won three straight after flopping down the stretch but one has to be concerned about fatigue being a factor as they play for the fourth straight day here. Kevin Keatts doesn’t go with a deep rotation and that can take a toll when playing a physical team like Virginia who bleeds the life out of you on every possession. Sure, the Cavaliers have looked about as effective offensively as Angola did against the original Dream Team back in the ’92 Olympics over the last month but they can strangle teams on the defensive end of the floor. Look for Virginia, with fresher legs, to take down the Wolfpack and end their Cinderella run.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats are the stronger of the two teams nearly across the board offensively. They are a better shooting team by far, a strong 3-point shooting team, and are nearly equally efficient. They have a stronger bench and can compete with the Aggies in the paint. Defensively, the Aggies have the advantage. They are stronger in every defensive category excluding 3-point defense. That will be the Aggies' undoing on Friday night. The game went back and forth and was decided by the Aggies' advantage on the offensive glass and the free-throw line. The Aggies shot 30 free throws in the game compared to 21 for the Wildcats and they had 25 offensive rebounds. I expect a rested and fresh Kentucky team to shoot the ball better in the rematch and keep the pace fast to build a lead that the plodding Aggies can't come back from.

Rating: 2 Units

Fittingly, these teams have already played in Madison Square Garden this season, a home game for St. John's. The Huskies won 77-64. Although the Red Storm is playing better these days, UConn is still on a different level than almost every team in the country. This defense can beat up the best offenses, something that St. John's already knows. UConn held the Red Storm to 65 points in round one and 64 in round two. The Huskies have one of the nation's most efficient offenses, something that St. John's can't fend off forever. Expect the Huskies to win convincingly again.

Rating: 2 Units

Sam Houston State has had a solid defense all season allowing just 69.6 points per game and the defense was on full display Wednesday when holding FIU to 59 points. The Bearkats offense is averaging 72.3 points per game. Sam Houston has covered the spread in eight straight games and on the season is 17-11-1 ATS. Sam Houston State defeated UTEP twice during the regular season. The Bearkats defeated the Miners in late January 60-56 and again in late February 65-54 but split the games against the spread, losing the first and winning the second. UTEP’s defense will be a thorn in the side of Sam Houston State but the Bearkats will use their own tough defense that held FIU to 59 points on Wednesday to shut down the below average UTEP offense. The Miners are shooting just 44.8% overall which is 169th and from 3-point territory hit only 32% of their attempts, which is 306th in the country. This game will be similar to the first two, which were very low scoring and will be close throughout with Sam Houston State pulling away over the final 10 minutes. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Vols dropped their only game against the Bulldogs this season and it was their defense that let them down. The Vols allowed the Bulldogs to shoot over 50% from the floor in the loss and were outscored 36-32 in the paint. Additionally, the Bulldogs' bench came alive and scored 33 points compared with just four points from the Volunteers' bench. With this game in Nashville, the Vols should have a significant home-court advantage and I expect a much better effort both from their defense and with the efficiency of their offense. The Vols finished the season first in the SEC in fewest turnovers per game but had 16 turnovers in the loss to Mississippi State. Look for the Vols' to bounce back nicely here with a comfortable double-digit win to advance to the SEC Conference Semifinals.

Rating: 2 Units

Sam Houston State has had a solid defense all season allowing just 69.6 points per game and the defense was on full display Wednesday when holding FIU to 59 points. The Bearkats offense is averaging 72.3 points per game. Sam Houston has covered the spread in eight straight games and on the season is 17-11-1 ATS. Sam Houston State defeated UTEP twice during the regular season. The Bearkats defeated the Miners in late January 60-56 and again in late February 65-54 but split the games against the spread, losing the first and winning the second. UTEP’s defense will be a thorn in the side of Sam Houston State but the Bearkats will use their own tough defense that held FIU to 59 points on Wednesday to shut down the below average UTEP offense. The Miners are shooting just 44.8% overall which is 169th and from 3-point territory hit only 32% of their attempts, which is 306th in the country. This game will be similar to the first two, which were very low scoring and will be close throughout with Sam Houston State pulling away over the final 10 minutes. 

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan State needed that win over Minnesota yesterday to give that some confidence and momentum. In that first game, they were not manhandled on the boards. Purdue shot 51% from the field, but that was at home, where Edey went to the line 20 times and made 14. The motivation is for Michigan State to attempt to take down Purdue to get a better seed and Tom Izzo could use the bracket as motivation. If they don't win and 10 different things happen, they could be on the outside looking in.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gators should come into this game knowing that there isn't anything certain about their NCAA Tournament status so a win here is imperative. The Gators have defeated the Bulldogs in both games, one in overtime, 102-98, and then by just six points, 88-82. The most surprising thing in the two games was the shooting of the Bulldogs. They shot a combined 51% in the two games overall and 36% from 3-point range. The area that should be concerning for the Bulldogs is in the paint. Florida outrebounded Georgia 87 to 58 in the two games and the Gators scored nearly 100 points in the paint combined in the two games. At their best, the Gators are a difficult matchup with tons of length and a top-notch backcourt.

Rating: 2 Units

Marquette scored 87 points against the Villanova Wildcats the first time. The Golden Eagles put up 85 the second time. Nova can not keep up with Marquette if they score 80 again. Not based on Wednesday's disastrous performance. So, just like both of January's matchups, Marquette will cover the spread. Turnovers and shooting are clear favorites for the Golden Eagles. This one won't be close, as Marquette dominates shorthanded.

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia enters their portion of the ACC Tournament in a tenuous spot for a spot in the March Madness field after their offense disappeared in the second half of the season. The Cavaliers did down Georgia Tech in their finale to finish the regular season 22-9 overall and 13-7 in the conference on the year. Against Georgia Tech, Virginia took control of the game with a 13-3 run midway through the first half to break a 15-15 tie. The Cavaliers were up 14 at the half, saw the lead trimmed to nine briefly early in the second half, but reeled off a 16-5 run to take a 20-point edge before cruising from there. The Cavaliers have the rest advantage, having been off since Saturday while Boston College plays for the third straight day here.

Rating: 2 Units

Western Kentucky is 42nd in the nation in scoring with an average of 80.2 points per game and shoots 46.7% overall which is 67th in the nation. Western Kentucky gives up plenty of points at 75 per game but that is due in part to having the highest adjusted tempo per Kenpom at 75.2, which creates far more possessions than normal, yet the Hilltoppers are holding opponents to the 50th lowest field goal shooting percentage and 64th lowest three-point shooting percentage. New Mexico State scores only 67.6 points per game, is 299th in field goal shooting percentage and 247th in three-point shooting percentage. Western Kentucky lost by two points on the road to New Mexico State earlier this season but at home defeated the Aggies by 14 points. Western Kentucky covered the spread in both meetings between the two.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with their comeback win over Texas on Wednesday, but can they beat the Cyclones twice in one week to advance? K-State took down Iowa State last weekend at Bramlage, holding the Cyclones to 43.1 percent shooting, including 5-for-17 (29.4%) from long range. The Wildcats were also inefficient (40.7 FG% and 29.2 3PT%) but scored 20 points off Iowa State turnovers. It was enough on Saturday, but it's doubtful the Cats will be able to overcome poor shooting again on Thursday to move on. That said, Iowa State isn't a great offensive team, ranking 131st nationally in true shooting percentage. It got to the free-throw line a lot in the first meeting between these teams, but it isn't reliable at the charity stripe (69.0 FT%). As long as the Wildcats don't pick up too many cheap fouls, I don't envision the Cyclones winning by enough to cover. Expect K-State to use the atmosphere at T-Mobile Center to its advantage again tomorrow to at least cover the spread in a must win game for Kansas State.

Rating: 2 Units

It has been a resurgent season for South Carolina, which finished 11-21 only a season ago. The Gamecocks are well on their way to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016-17. Despite its upswing, South Carolina carries a chip on its shoulder into the conference tournament. Gamecocks guard Meechie Johnson said he and his teammates are determined to prove their regular-season success was not a fluke. He did not hesitate when asked about his motivation heading into the tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

St. John's is hot, but Seton Hall has cooled down their offense all season. In game one, the Red Storm finished with 65 points. In the second one, they only mustered 62. The Pirates are strong defensively and will keep St. John's in check yet again. Which is why, if they don't pull off another win, they'll at least keep it within one possession. Seton Hall is more reliable at the free throw line, which helps against the St. John's defense. The Pirates have controlled the glass in both meetings. Expect a Seton Hall to give St. John's fits again.

Rating: 2 Units

In round one, UConn scored 80 on Xavier. In the second meeting, the Huskies ran it up to 99 points. Considering that the Musketeers' defense guided them for most of the season, that's an ominous sign for today's battle. If (when) the Huskies score 80+ again, Xavier's offense won't be able to keep up. UConn has the best defense in the Big East as well. Rebounding and turnovers should favor the Huskies too. They say that the Huskies feel at home in The Garden, and that'll be crystal clear on Thursday. Take UConn to cover the spread comfortably.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kansas Jayhawks, with their impressive season record of 22-9 and standing 6th in the Big 12, exhibit a compelling case for victory in this matchup. Their offensive arsenal, averaging 76.0 points per game with a field goal percentage of 49.4%, is a testament to their efficiency and ability to dominate on the court. Coupled with a solid defense that limits opponents to 68.6 points per game and a formidable 40.5% shooting from the field, Kansas has the depth and skill to control the game's pace. The resilience and tactical acumen shown by key players like Charlie McCarthy and Dajuan Harris Jr., with his 6.4 assists per game, are pivotal to the Jayhawks' success. Even considering potential injury concerns, the depth and quality of Kansas's roster, along with their proven track record and statistical superiority, strongly position them for a win in this high-stakes Big 12 showdown.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan has some talent, but they have been one of the worst Power 5/6 teams all season. DePaul might be worse and a few others, but when you don't play defense, there's usually something more than just a lack of talent as an issue. Juwan Howard's days may be numbered and maybe he gets the benefit of the doubt due to his health and alum status. Penn State is a year away from making a dent in this league once Rhoades gets his players. Baldwin Jr. is one of his players and he'll be the big difference in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats will be desperate and motivated, as they're playing close to campus and need a win to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. They ended their regular season with a crucial win over Iowa State, riding their stingy defense to the upset. The first matchup between these teams was a dogfight. Kansas State, 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, defends well both inside and outside the arc. Its opponents shoot 40.6 percent overall and 31.3 percent from three-point distance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Razorbacks never lived up to their recent success this season. They were rarely consistent on either end and were one of the worst defensive teams in the SEC. In the first matchup, they allowed the Commodores, ranked last in the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage, to shoot over 50% from the floor and dominate the paint. The Commodores finished with 44 points in the paint and dominated the weak interior defense of the Razorbacks. Arkansas had just 26 points in the paint in the first game and the team likely would have been blown out save for a 36-point performance from Battle. The Razorbacks shot just 40% as a team in the game against statistically the worst defense in the SEC. The Razorbacks can and probably should win this game but 6.5 points is too much for them to give up at this point.

Rating: 2 Units

The Terps have been the better team and I do expect Reese to play. It sounds like Kevin Willard sacrificed the Penn State game to have Reese ready for the tournament since that's the only way they are making the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers wants to grind this one out, but when you look at tournaments, it's nice to have one difference-maker on the floor on offense who can carry you. Maryland has that in Jahmir Young, who can at least get them past one round, but probably not much further than that.

Rating: 2 Units

Sam Houston State’s defense, which allows an average of only 69.6 points per game on 42.9% shooting overall and 31.6% shooting from long distance will be too much for FIU. The Bearkats have covered the spread in each of their last seven games while winning each of the seven straight up. Sam Houston’s offense, while playing at an adjusted tempo of 67.8 per Kenpom, which is 167th, is able to score an average of 72.3 points per game despite only a slightly above average pace. The Bearkats grab 9.6 offensive boards per game which is 83rd in the nation, giving them plenty of second look opportunities which helps to offset a below average field goal shooting percentage. Sam Houston State split its regular season two-game series with FIU, losing the first 68-61, but bouncing back to win the second on the road in South Florida 70-56. FIU was able to shoot well against Jacksonville State in its opening round victory, hitting 50% of its 3-point attempts but will be hard pressed to do the same against a tough Sam Houston State perimeter defense that is 62nd in the nation in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 31.6.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither team finished the regular season with any momentum, as both dropped their season finales and three of their last four overall. The Sooners were dominated by Texas, while the Horned Frogs dropped a winnable game on senior day to UCF. Which squad will "get right" today? I'm betting the answer to that question is TCU. The Horned Frogs defeated the Sooners 80-71 in their lone regular-season meeting (Jan. 10). TCU was outshot and outrebounded but took better care of the basketball (+7 turnover margin) and scored 25 points off of Oklahoma's 14 turnovers. Senior forward Emanuel Miller paced the Horned Frogs with 27 points on 11-of-17 shooting in the home win. I feel confident TCU, winners of four of the last five in this series, is due to bounce back. This game impacts both squads' NCAA Tournament resumes, but the Horned Frogs are better positioned to take advantage. OU has been without junior forward John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG) since early February and senior guard Rivaldo Soares aggravated an ankle injury in the Sooners' loss to the Longhorns. He averaged 17.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game on 73.5 percent shooting in Oklahoma's last three games, so his availability will be crucial to the Sooners' success. TCU is experienced and deep enough to take advantage, especially beyond the arc (36.4 3PT%). Miller is a consistent scorer, having reached double figures in 19 straight games. The Horned Frogs' tournament resume is less complete than the Sooners' is — they'll make the necessary plays to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame took the only meeting between the teams this season and they have been better offensively down the stretch than they were most of the year. The problem for the Fighting Irish is that they sputtered defensively, giving up 80 points to Georgia Tech in their first-round victory. Notre Dame has to find a way to defend the Demon Deacons, who have a variety of weapons on the offensive end of the floor. Wake Forest is stellar at the charity stripe and they know they need at least one, if not two, victories, to improve their resume for the tournament committee. The Demon Deacons take advantage of a fatigued Notre Dame squad to pick up a win and advance to the quarterfinals.

Rating: 2 Units

BYU's 90 points on Feb. 13 were the most UCF allowed this season and the most the Knights have surrendered since Miami scored 88 points in November last season. Central Florida's hot shooting kept it alive in that game, but it can't count on another performance like that tomorrow. If the Knights are going to win or cover, they'll need to live up to their billing as one of the nation's best defensive squads.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami had high expectations heading into the season but vastly underperformed when all was said and done. Nine straight losses to end the season hardly inspire confidence heading into the conference tournament either. Boston College won their final two games of the regular season and they won a pair of meetings against Miami, including one six days ago on the road. While the Eagles are nothing great this season, they at least have momentum, not to mention having had success against the Hurricanes this season. With nine straight defeats, it’s impossible to back the Hurricanes here, especially as a favorite. Take the Eagles and the points but don’t hesitate to sprinkle on the moneyline as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Will the third time be the charm for San Francisco? The Dons have Cinderella qualities, but if they're going to make a statement in March, they need to slay the Zags. USF is a combined 0-4 against WCC darlings Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, as everyone but leading scorer Jonathan Mogbo (14.7 PPG and 10.3 RPG) has struggled to play up to their potential. The Dons are at their best when their guards get in a rhythm, as they space the floor and create mismatches for Mogbo. They attempt nearly 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, but those shots have been difficult to hit against the Bulldogs and Gaels. Gonzaga is among the top teams in the nation in opponent two-point shooting percentage, forcing the Dons into off-rhythm shots. I won't expect that to change in today's semi-final game, as the rested Bulldogs haven't forgotten their identity. USF is a fun team to watch when it's at its best, but I don't expect too much cheering from the Dons' sideline tonight.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

UAB will be gunning to join SMU in the 20-win club, which would be a major accomplishment for head coach Andy Kennedy considering they welcomed zero returning starters this campaign. The Blazers are 13-2 ATS as either a dog or a favorite of fewer than 4 points this season. Battling tough opposition is no problem either, as the fi re-breathers are 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS versus winning opposition this season. Finally, UAB is 9-2 SU in Last Home Games, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games.

Rating: 3 Units

The Purdue Boilermakers are going to be the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Purdue has won the Big Ten season title. They are 16-3 in conference play this season. Purdue was dealt an upset road loss by Ohio State last month and has replied by winning four games in a row propelled by the scoring. They beat Michigan State 80-74 this past weekend and were marked as 2.5-point dogs in a 77-71 road win against a ranked Illinois squad on Tuesday. The Boilermakers have covered the spread in two of their last five bouts.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are attempting to conclude a successful regular season with a road win. Nebraska has issued a solid 11-8 conference record, placing them third in the Big Ten. Nebraska is in a groove, recording the win in five of its last six games. The only defeat in that span was in a road loss against Ohio State. Nebraska was a nine-point favorite in a 67-56 home win against Rutgers on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights have covered in four of their last five games.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have struggled in recent games, with Northwestern on a 0-2 slide and the Gophers winning just one of their last four contests, but the Wildcats are one of three teams tied with 8 conference losses this season, and a win here helps them clear the pack. NU lost 75-66 as -1.5-point chalk at Minnesota in early February and besides being 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with revenge this season, the purple Cats are also 11-4 ATS with revenge in this series, including 7-1 ATS  at home. Minnesota tried and failed in its most recent game to gain a measure of revenge against Indiana, and the Gophers are a disturbing 10-38 SU and 17-31 ATS after facing the Hoosiers. Sure, it’s tough going against the biggest moneymaker in college hoops this season but no risk it, no biscuit. Senior Day in Evanston seals the deal.

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia has to have this game to avoid dropping in the ACC standings as the Tournament gets set to kick off on Wednesday. A win assured the Cavaliers of the third seed in the ACC Tournament. A loss could drop them as low as the fifth seed which would force the Cavaliers to play on Wednesday rather than earning a two-game bye right into the quarterfinals as either a third or fourth seed. The Cavs won the first matchup on the road with a nine-point victory over the Yellow Jackets. The key to beating the Cavs is a top-flight offense. Their most recent losses include games against North Carolina and Duke, both with a top-five offense in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets don't have the firepower to do that and the Cavs are far more comfortable in a defensive struggle.