Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-24-23 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals were smacked around 11-3 on Friday night in St. Pete, splashing cold water on the team after a surprising 6-5 win in the series opener. Kansas City turns to RHP Jordan Lyles, and it has been an adventure for the veteran right-hander all season. He is 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, and on pace to be the first 20-game loser in the majors since Mike Maroth in 2003 with the Detroit Tigers. Kansas City is 0-5 in the last 5 third games in a series, while going 12-39 in the last 51 against teams with a winning overall record. The Rays are 35-17 in their last 52 games following a win, while going 51-17 in the last 68 games at Tropicana Field, which is a winning percentage of .750. |
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06-24-23 | Red Sox -107 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Paxton has been excellent since returning from the IL and has given the Red Sox arguably a #1 starter to replace the injured Chris Sale. He has been slightly less effective on the road but has still consistently gone into the sixth inning at least on the road. Lynn, despite his last start, has been hit hard this season with an ERA over six and allowed more hits than innings pitched. He has been even less effective at home with a reduced K/9 rate and a higher ERA. The Red Sox have the superior lineup of the two teams and should be able to take advantage of Lynn and his inconsistent stuff. Also, it will be interesting to see how veteran Lynn bounces back after throwing over 110 pitches in his last start and going deep into the game. I like the Sox to take advantage of Lynn in this one and take game two of this series. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -127 v. Yankees | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers picked up a 4-2 victory in 10 innings in Friday’s series opener, handing the Yankees their second consecutive setback against an American League West team. Texas, meanwhile, has posted wins in 5 of its past 6 outings, including 3 straight wins against American League East Division foes. The Rangers hand the ball to RHP Jon Gray, who was pounded for 6 runs and 6 hits with 3 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in a no-decision on Sunday against Toronto. Texas still managed to win that game. Despite the ugly outing, he is still has a respectable 3.44 ERA in 18 1/3 innings in 3 June outings, including a complete-game loss in his prior outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 7. The Yankees counter with RHP Luis Severino, who has been extremely erratic in June. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 outings, and he hasn’t had a quality start while going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in June. He has allowed 7 home runs in the ugly 18 2/3-inning span, while allowing 9 walks and 29 hits in the 4 outings. |
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06-24-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 13.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The walls have been backed up a bit, and seating has been added that shrinks the foul ball territory in London Stadium. The wall in the center field is still only 392 feet though, although it does stand 16 feet tall in dead center. Down the lines is 330 feet, and while London itself is a windy play (the Cubs should feel right at home!), the stadium was built to minimize those winds for the 2012 Olympics, so wind shouldn’t be a major factor. I don’t expect this stadium to play Mexico City crazy, even if the expected run total is elevated a bit. I still like Justin Steele to keep the ball on the ground and limit the Cardinals in the early innings, and while Wainwright is not great at this point in his career, I would be surprised if he doesn’t at least post a competitive performance on the big stage. Consider that the under is 31-15-5 in Cubs last 51 games following an off day. |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will send right-hander Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound Friday for his second career start. The 23-year-old rookie had a dynamic debut last Friday when he did not allow a hit over six innings against the San Francisco Giants. Sheehan had a 0.89 WHIP at Double-A before being called up. The Astros will counter with their own rookie in right-hander J.P. France (2-2, 3.42), who has never faced the Dodgers. France pitched well in his most recent start last Friday against the Cincinnati Reds when he gave up two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings but took the loss anyway against the red-hot Reds. In France's eight career starts, the Houston offense has averaged just 2.9 runs per game. The Dodgers come into this one with a 22-14 record at home. Houston has struggled since June 6, going 5-10 over a stretch played mostly without slugger Yordan Alvarez (oblique). |
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06-23-23 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals are 3-14 over the past 17 games with losing streaks of six and five games. Yesterday afternoon, Washington gave up four unearned runs in the makeup game against Arizona on what originally was an off day -- before flying cross country. The Friday pitching matchup will feature Washington left-hander Patrick Corbin (4-8, 4.89 ERA) and Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (5-2, 4.22). Neither pitcher faced the other team last month. Over his past five starts, Musgrove is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.091 WHIP and a .243 opponents' batting average. Corbin is 0-3 over his past three starts with a 4.76 ERA, a 2.000 WHIP and a .361 opponents' batting average. In 23 career appearances (18 starts) against the Padres, he is 7-10 with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.478 WHIP and a .285 opponents' batting average. |
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06-23-23 | Angels v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels arrive in Denver on the heels of being shut out in consecutive home games by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Angels had won 11 of 14 games before their bats went silent. They lost both games by 2-0 scores and had just five hits on Tuesday and two on Wednesday. Luis Rengifo had both hits on Wednesday when the Dodgers used seven pitchers during a bullpen game. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout each were hitless in seven at-bats in the series. Trout has 15 homers but has driven in just 39 runs while batting .250. His average is 50 points below his career mark. The Angels are attempting to fight through a recent injury bug that has seen shortstop Zach Neto (oblique) and third baseman Anthony Rendon (wrist) go on the 10-day injured list, with infielder Gio Urshela (fractured pelvis) likely done for the season. Consider that the under is 20-7-1 in Angels last 28 games following an off day. |
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06-23-23 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Recent history suggests the Boston Red Sox will be in good hands Friday night when right-hander Brayan Bello takes the mound for the start of a three-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. In his past nine starts, Bello has a 2.60 ERA. The 24-year-old has allowed no more than two earned runs in eight of those outings. Bello (4-4, 3.49 ERA) has pitched at least seven innings in three of his past five starts. Bello, who dealt with forearm tightness in spring training, was especially impressive in his past two starts, both of which were against the New York Yankees. He struck out a career-high eight batters in seven innings during Boston's 4-1 triumph over New York on Sunday. He held the Yankees to one run on four hits and three walks. In his previous outing, Bello allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings to help the Red Sox post a 3-2 victory over New York. He fanned three and walked two. Consider that the under is 10-2 in White Sox last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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06-23-23 | Mariners v. Orioles -104 | 13-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have been weak offensively all season long, ranking tied for 28th in team batting average (.226), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 25th in slugging percentage (.378) as a team entering Thursday’s action. Their offensive numbers could be worse if they weren’t hitting .250 as a team with runners in scoring position on the year. Gilbert has had his issues of late and we know how prolific the Orioles lineup is when it comes to putting runs on the board. Gibson has pitched well this season and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his past six starts, including when he held the Cubs to three runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over six innings in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. He knows that he can get decent run support from the lineup behind him. That’s something the Mariners, who are 15-20 on the road, haven’t been able to reliably provide for any of their pitchers. Baltimore rebounds after their tough trip to take the opening game of this series. |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -115 | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle has been disappointing offensively as one expected more from Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez this season after what we saw in 2022. The Mariners struggled to get anything going against Cole in the opening game of the series and have had their problems against German, including back on May 29 at home. Sure, they got to German for four runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts but still ended up on the wrong side of a 10-4 blowout. Woo has shown good control in his three starts but those are his first outings above Double-A, which means there are growing pains that come with pitching at the big league level. The Yankees have had their own offensive woes with Aaron Judge on the IL but they should do enough against Woo to earn the win here, clinching the series. |
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06-22-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -134 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units During their losing streak, the Pirates have recorded a 112 wRC+ against the southpaws and 37 wRC+ against the righties. Even if the Bucs get to Braxton Garrett, who’ll have to slow down a bit, the Marlins have a few quality righties in their bullpen. Miami’s bullpen has been terrific in the last ten days, notching a 2.83 ERA and 3.35 FIP through 28.2 innings of work. On the other side, the Pirates’ relievers have thrown 25.2 frames in that span while posting a disastrous 9.82 ERA and 5.85 FIP. The Marlins’ offense will have a tall task to hit well against Mitch Keller despite his recent struggles, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh’s bullpen to get the job done. |
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06-22-23 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals rotation took a hit in May with the loss of righty Brad Keller. Keller is still rehabbing at the moment and is still likely a few weeks away. The team has several options to take the ball on Thursday but all will likely serve strictly as an opener against the powerful Rays' lineup. After going five innings in his last outing on June 16th, the most obvious choice to get the start is right-hander Mike Mayers. He is 1-2 in six appearances this season, including two starts. He has an ERA of 6.15, a WHIP of 1.63, and has allowed 17 hits in 26.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Rays last 21 home games. |
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06-22-23 | Diamondbacks -148 v. Nationals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10 games above .500 on the road this season after securing a series win against the Brewers this week. The rebuilding Washington Nationals are playing with no confidence and have dropped seven of their last ten games. They aren't any better at home where they have lost nine of ten. The D-Backs have already played the Nationals five times this season, winning four of the meetings. D-Backs’ starter Tommy Henry just limited the Guardians to two runs in six innings in his latest effort. Arizona has won in each of his last four starts. It’s been a struggle for Nationals starter Jake Irvin, especially at Nationals Park where he has a horrible 6.20 ERA in 24.2 innings. |
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06-22-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is averaging 5.47 runs per game. Their .269 batting average is second in the league. Their .339 on base percentage is also second, while their .479 slugging percentage leads the league. Philadelphia is averaging 4.41 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .322 on base percentage is 14th, while their .419 slugging percentage is 11th. Consider that the over is 21-9 in Braves last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We believe that the Angels will win mostly because of the Dodgers’ struggles on the mound. The Dodgers’ relievers have been awful lately, sporting a 5.01 ERA, and better only than Oakland's (5.51) in the majors. Additionally, the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t impressed in the last few weeks, whereas the Angels’ offense has done an excellent job. Only four guys from this Dodgers team have seen Shohei Ohtani before, combining for six hits and three RBI in 15 at-bats. Ohtani has had ups and downs since terrific April, but I’m expecting to see a strong performance in this game. The Dodgers have recorded an 86 wRC+ against the righties in the last two weeks. |
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06-21-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen takes the ball for the Diamondbacks. He is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young at the moment, and he has simply been fantastic this season. In his last outing, he threw 7 innings of 1-run baseball while striking out 7 Guardians. That is important because the Guards have the 2nd-lowest K rate in baseball. Let’s just say the Brewers are a little lower down the list (27th, actually). Oh, and the Brewers also have the third-lowest batting average against right-handed pitching. This should be a Gallen game all the way. But Milwaukee is throwing Julio Teheran, who is in the midst of a career resurgence. The regression police have been screaming about his 1.78 ERA for a month now, but all Teheran has done is make five starts, give up a total of six earned runs, and never more than two in a game. Consider that the under is 35-15-4 in Brewers last 54 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. |
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06-21-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Reds are riding a 10-game winning streak -- matching their longest run since 1957 -- heading into the finale of a three-game series against the visiting Colorado Rockies on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds have won 13 of 15 and 32 of their last 52 since a 7-15 start to the season. At 39-35, Cincinnati is four games over .500, its best mark since ending the 2021 season with an 83-79 record. Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott (3-0, 0.00 ERA) has yet to allow a run in three starts, covering 17 2/3 innings. Since the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893, Abbott is the only pitcher in major league history to open his career with three scoreless starts of at least five innings. Abbott will be facing Colorado for the first time. The Rockies, attempting to snap a seven-game losing streak, will look to conclude their 10-game road trip on a positive note. Right-hander Connor Seabold (1-3, 5.88 ERA) gets the starting assignment, his 10th start and 17th appearance of the season. Seabold is making his second start this season against Cincinnati. He allowed six runs, four earned, on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings on May 15. |
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06-21-23 | Blue Jays -129 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara's struggles this season are a bit concerning. He dominated last season with his changeup but this season, he has had difficulty getting hitters out with that pitch. Alcantara appears to be one pitcher that has struggled with the shift changes this season with a higher batting average against him and difficulty putting hitters away. After dominating the Nationals over the last two seasons, Alcantara gave up 10 hits against the Nationals in his last start and was only able to strike out one batter. Gausman, meanwhile, has thrived with his splitter this season and has a K/9 rate up over 11. While his ERA raises slightly on the road, it is still under four and generally keeps the ball out of play with a high strikeout rate. I like Gausman to win what may not be as much of a pitchers' duel as it appears on paper. |
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06-20-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds will send right-hander Ben Lively (4-4, 4.07 ERA) to the mound on Tuesday for his first career start against Colorado. However, he did make a relief appearance against the Rockies on May 15, when he took a loss after allowing a run in 2 1/3 innings. Lively matched a season high with 10 hits allowed against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday in his most recent start. However, he allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn his fourth win. The Rockies will counter with right-hander Noah Davis (0-1, 6.17 ERA). Davis was an 11th-round selection by the Reds in 2018, and he started his professional career in the Cincinnati minor league system in 2019. Tuesday will mark the fourth major league start of the season for Davis, but his first since allowing seven runs on seven hits in two innings in an 11-4 home loss to Arizona on April 29. Davis subsequently landed on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. After returning to make one rehab appearance for Albuquerque, he was optioned to the Triple-A club on June 1. In seven Triple-A starts overall this year, Davis is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA. |
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06-20-23 | Cubs -121 v. Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs have found their stride, and they have been doing so at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago is 8-2 in its past 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Pirates last week at home and Monday's 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The Pirates, conversely, have lost seven in a row and are struggling to score. Chicago right-hander Marcus Stroman (8-4, 2.45 ERA) is scheduled to start against Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (3-6, 4.40). Oviedo struck out eight but gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings to take the loss in that meeting, while Stroman allowed two runs on four hits in six innings and got the win. It was also Stroman's sixth consecutive win. He has a 1.51 ERA during that stretch, which spans 41 2/3 innings. Oviedo, on the other hand, has lost his past three decisions. He is 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs. |
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06-20-23 | Royals v. Tigers -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers have won three of their last four games and have scored 18 runs in their last three home games. They have also hit the ball well against left-handers and Kansas City starter, Lynch has struggled on the mound, giving up 17 runs in four starts this season. He gave up 12 runs in his last three starts against the Tigers and with Kansas City having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Tigers in this game. The Royals have lost nine of their last 10 games and seven of their last eight road games and have struggled offensively on the road scoring only eight runs in their last five road games. They have struggled against right-handers and Detroit starter Lorenzen has done better on the mound at home, giving up 15 runs in five home starts. |
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06-20-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Olson has been a big threat against the Phillies this season, smashing two homers and five RBIs complemented by a 1 OPS. The veteran first baseman is having an outstanding season, collecting 20 bombs with 51 RBIs and an .850 OPS. Olson has knocked in eight runs in his last eight games. The Braves are posting an average of 5.49 runs, good for third. JT Realmuto is swinging a hot bat, clubbing three homers and seven RBIs in his last six games. The veteran catcher struggled last month but has rebounded with a dazzling 1.019 OPS in June. The Phillies are averaging 4.44 runs on the year, marking them 17th. The pitching staff has reported a 4.28 team ERA, placing them 17th. Consider that the over is 26-9-2 in Braves last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning record. |
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06-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have lost six of their last eight games but they’ve won five of their last nine home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring 16 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Kelly has struggled on the mound in recent starts, especially on the road where he has given up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Brewers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last five games. Despite their slump, they have played well offensively, scoring 15 runs in their last three games. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Brewers last 21 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -118 v. Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at two teams heading in opposite directions over the last 10 days or so entering Sunday. Chicago had won five straight and seven of eight while the Pirates had lost five straight and eight of their previous 10. In the series opener, Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25). This is a rematch of Wednesday's game, when Smyly came away with the win and Bido, in his major league debut, did not get a decision despite a good outing. Smyly gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings, with four strikeouts and one walk, but got plenty of offensive support in Chicago's 10-6 win. Smyly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 outings this year. |
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06-19-23 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 16 games after the Los Angeles Angels defeated it 5-2 on Sunday. The Tigers won twice in a three-game series at Kansas City last month. It's been a rough season for the Royals, and right-hander Jordan Lyles, today's expected starter, epitomizes those struggles. Lyles has an 0-11 record and a 6.89 ERA. He's been charged with the loss in six of his past seven outings, including his last start on Tuesday. Lyles, who has made 14 starts, gave up five runs and five hits in six innings against Cincinnati. The Tigers hit much better at home (.246 BA/.320 OBP/.396 SLG/.716 OPS in 33 games) than they do away from Comerica Park (.212/.284/.329/.613 in 36 games) and are also better at the dish at night (.237/.321/.384/.705 in 34 games) than in day games (.219/.281/.338/.619 in 35 games). |
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06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to get back into the win column on Monday night. The Marlins are turning to an opener in this game which will lead to an extended bullpen effort for Miami. The Blue Jays have hit the ball well despite their inconsistency over the past week. In their last six games, the Jays are hitting .270, have hit eight home runs, and are slugging .428. The Jays will send Berrios to the mound, who is coming off his best performance of the season with 7.2 innings of three-hit ball against the Orioles on the road. Berrios has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month and a half. He has gone 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of just 1.11. Expect Berrios to keep the Marlins at bay as the Blue Jays' offense takes advantage of a bullpen game from Miami. |
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06-18-23 | Giants +115 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 115 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Something has to give in this matchup with Webb coming in undefeated in his career at Dodger Stadium and Gonsolin with an ERA under 2.00 at home this season. I'm leaning to the Giants in this game for two reasons; they are playing better baseball now, and I trust that Webb will go deeper in this game than Gonsolin. The Dodgers lineup is hitting just .234 in their last ten games with a record of just 4-6 heading into Saturday night's game. The loss of Muncy is also damaging to the Dodgers' middle of the order. which should boost Webb's chances of going deeper in this game. The Dodgers are also hitting just .224 during the day this season while the Giants are hitting .253 during the day. |
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06-18-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Athletics are back to losing consistently, it's safe to bet against them every night again. Especially with a streaking Philadelphia team in town and their top starting pitcher on the mound for the start. Active Oakland batters have just 10 combined PA against Wheeler in their careers, and that unfamiliarity should benefit the pitcher, especially with his diverse 5-pitch repertoire. Hogan Harris can give Oakland a chance, but the Athletics' offense, defense, and bullpen won't be much backup. Philadelphia has won 12 of 14 and five straight. Take the team that's better, hotter, and needs a win more, which is the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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06-18-23 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither pitcher has been very good lately. Zack Greinke is clearly in the twilight of his career, and he has given up 8 runs in his last 2 starts. He rarely goes beyond 5 innings either, and any time the Royals’ bullpen gets involved, that is risky business. The Angels will start Tyler Anderson, who has given up 5, 4, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts. He has fallen apart lately, and even the Royals should be poised to hit him hard. With both pitchers struggling, this seems like a good time to play the over, especially since we had 19 runs on the board on Saturday. Consider that the over is 5-2 in Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. |
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06-18-23 | Angels -121 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are 0-6 in Greinke's last six starts, and the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. The Angels are one of the hottest teams today, and I don't expect that to change tomorrow. Los Angeles scored four runs on seven hits against Zack Greinke earlier this season, launching two homers. I predict another solid day at the plate for LA. Anderson wasn't sharp in his previous outing against KC on April 22 (five earned runs on seven hits), but I don't expect the Royals to have similar success on Sunday. Kansas City is 1-12 straight-up this month, which isn't surprising when you consider its' June splits (.227/.288/.343/.631) at the plate and performance on the mound (5.63 ERA). KC has slightly better splits vs. left-handed pitchers than vs. righties, but it's not consistent enough to warrant a moneyline bet, even at home. |
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06-18-23 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals and Mets complete their series on Sunday afternoon after splitting the first 2 games. The Mets won 6-1 on Friday, while the Cardinals won 5-3 on Saturday. Neither game has gone over today’s run total, and that has a lot to do with the struggling offenses for both teams. The Mets are really missing Pete Alonso in the middle of their order, while the Cardinals have been cold for most of the last 2 weeks. The higher run total is a reflection of the below-average pitchers going on Sunday, but I still prefer to fade these offenses. Consider that the under is 14-5-1 in Cardinals last 20 overall. |
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06-17-23 | Rays +102 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a good spot for the Padres, but I'd rather take my chances with the Rays. San Diego has struggled to win in favorable spots throughout the season, which is why they are the fifth worst-money team in MLB according to covers.com (-$1,085). On the other side, the Rays are the third-best money team (+$1,122) and 22-6 in their last 28 games against left-handed pitchers. Blake Snell has been pitching better for the Padres as of late, yet still, the club has lost five of his last seven starts. Overall the Rays are 10-2 when Eflin starts this season, and the Padres are just 3-10 when Snell takes the hill. I have to back baseball's best team here. |
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06-17-23 | Cardinals v. Mets -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have won six of their last 10 home games and have scored 14 runs in their last three home games. It’s been a long season for St. Louis starter, Adam Wainwright – and he’s only made 7 starts. Wainwright has a 5.79 ERA paired with a 6.21 xERA in 37.1 innings, and he’s allowed at least 3 runs in every outing so far. His sinker is sitting mid-80s and his curveball isn’t spinning as much as it used to. That has added up to Wainwright becoming a batting practice pitcher this season, and that shouldn’t stop anytime soon. He’s yet to show that he can limit an offense, so until that happens, fade the longtime Cardinal and take New York’s money line. |
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06-17-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s will turn to James Kaprielian, who is not a good pitcher at all, and his 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP is a pretty accurate indication of who he is. He has been better than that of late, but I would expect the Phillies to knock him around quite a bit on Saturday. The Phillies will be calling up Christopher Sanchez, who began his career with the Rays, but they moved on from him, and that is telling for a pitcher. He has made a few appearances for Philadelphia over the past couple of years, mostly in relief. He is nothing to be excited about, and he is probably just a “whoever we can call up” move. There is no reason Oakland can’t put some runs on him as well. The wind should be blowing out in Oakland, which matters more in the afternoon than in the night games. And with both starting pitchers vulnerable, this should be a good day to score. Consider that the over is 32-15-5 in Phillies last 52 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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06-17-23 | Orioles +111 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steele (6-2, 2.65 ERA) takes the ball for the first time since exiting his start against Tampa Bay on May 31 with a left forearm strain. Though the Cubs are winless in Steele's past four starts, the left-hander is one inning shy of ranking among the major league leaders in ERA, opponents' batting average (.228) and WHIP (1.06). He has eight quality starts. Steele, who could be on a pitch count, faced Baltimore at home last July and allowed four runs, three earned, and six hits over six innings of a 7-1 Chicago loss. he Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson, who is a completely unexciting pitcher, but has managed to be serviceable all season. He has pitched to a 3.90 ERA, he hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in his last 5 starts, and the Orioles have won 4 of those starts. He keeps his team in the game so that his offense can work, and they seem overdue after a slow Friday. The Orioles are the better team in every phase of the game, and we don’t love backing a pitcher in his first game back from the IL. |
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06-17-23 | Orioles v. Cubs OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gunnar Henderson is considered one of the Orioles' top prospects and is delivering at the plate, accumulating a remarkable nine RBIs in his last six games. The 21-year-old third baseman now has 10 homers with 26 RBIs and a .792 OPS. The O’s are dealing with injuries as Mullins and Mountcastle remain out. Baltimore is averaging 4.99 runs per game, marking them sixth. The pitching staff is carrying a 4.13 team ERA, placing them 12th. Seiya Suzuki has been slumping at the dish in recent weeks, recording three RBIs and a .600 OPS on the month. The 28-year-old slugger is one of the Cubs best hitters, knocking in 22 runs along with an .822 OPS. Suzuki went 2 for 8 with no RBIs against the Orioles last season and 1 for 5 on Friday. Chicago is heating up at the plate and is averaging 4.49 runs on the year, ranking them 16th. The pitching has reported a 4.17 team ERA, positioning them 14th. Consider that the over is 13-5 in Orioles last 18 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-16-23 | Guardians v. Diamondbacks -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can't bet against Gallen pitching at home at this point. He's yet to lose a game at home and has an ERA under one. Additionally, his strikeout numbers rise at home and his WHIP lowers. Add to that his matchup on Friday night, a Guardians' team that is just 27th in runs scored per game this season. While Gallen will get the Diamondbacks deep into this game, Mackenzie is still not quite stretched out yet and will likely give the Guardians just five innings in this game. Arizona is hitting .270 at home this season and is fifth in baseball in runs per game as well so they should give Gallen plenty of support in this game. Keep riding Gallen as long as he stays perfect. |
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06-16-23 | Pirates v. Brewers -115 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rich Hill takes the mound for the Pirates. The veteran is usually a fade for me, especially with all the slow-breaking pitches he is flipping up to the plate these days. The Brewers are the worst team in the league against lefties, so he might get away with it on Friday, but we think they will have a better-than-normal day against Hill. The Brewers are starting Julio Teheran, who has had a career resurgence in Milwaukee. He has made 4 starts so far, and his worst was 6.1 innings with 2 runs allowed. If he repeats that performance, it’s going to be hard for Milwaukee to lose. Teheran will certainly not maintain 1.48/0.95 splits all season, but We’ll ride it as long as it lasts. With struggling teams duking it out, I am going to trust the pitcher riding a hot streak and take the Brewers to win the first game of this series. |
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06-16-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great price to get the best offensive team in baseball as a home dog. Perez has had three subpar outings this season, all on the road, but at home, Texas is undefeated in Perez's four starts where he is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in four starts covering 25 2/3 innings. The Rangers are also 6-2 against the runline as a home underdog this season. Blue Jays starter Gausman allowed six runs on seven hits with four walks and four strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in his last start. Even if Toronto wins, three of their last four victories have only come by one run. Take the Rangers at +1.5. |
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06-16-23 | Orioles v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore averages 5.00 runs per game (6th) and hits .253 (14th) with a .749 OPS (10th). The O's have hit 80 home runs (11th) and stolen 53 bases (9th) this year. The pitching staff sports a 4.15 ERA (13th) and a 1.33 WHIP (19th). Chicago scores 4.40 runs per game (20th) and hits .247 (17th) with a .720 OPS (15th). The Cubs have hit 74 home runs (17th) and stolen 47 bases (16th) this season. The pitching staff has compiled a 4.20 ERA (15th) and a 1.28 WHIP (13th). Consider that the over is 12-5 in Orioles last 17 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133 | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies have not been a reliable squad to back on the road where they have lost six of their last ten games. The Diamondbacks remain one of the hottest squads, posting a 7-4 record in their last eleven games. They have also won seven of their last eleven home games propelled by the hot offense. Phillies’ starter Ranger Suarez pitched against Arizona late last month and was clobbered, surrendering five runs. D-Backs’ starter Merrill Kelly is dominant, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. Arizona continues to deliver victories with Kelly on the hill, going 6-1 in his last seven outings. |
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06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies starting rotation has been decimated by injuries and cuts (shoutout Jose Urena), but one guy that has remained healthy the entire time has been Austin Gomber. Unfortunately for Colorado, he’s turning into Jose Urena 2.0 because he’s been throwing batting practice in his last few outings. His ERA is up to 7.57, his xERA sits at 7.6 and his FIP is an absurd 6.75 – all of that means his struggles are no fluke. To list a few of the things that Gomber has struggled in: 1st percentile in xBA (.323), 2nd percentile in xSLG (.582), 6th percentile in strikeout rate (14%) and 25th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%). It’s not like the lefty had a rough start to the season and has bounced back either because in June, he’s allowed 9 runs, 17 hits, 5 walks and 4 home runs in 6.2 innings. Those 2 starts were against the Royals and Padres who rank 15th and 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, as for the Red Sox, they rank 7th with a 124 wRC+. Boston starter Whitlock missed a month of action, but now he’s back and better than ever. In 3 outings since returning, the 27-year-old has allowed 6 runs and 16 hits while racking up 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. Although his sinker can run him into trouble sometimes, Whitlock still has the arsenal to keep the Rockies lineup off balance. |
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06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Austin Gomber takes the ball on getaway day for the Rockies as he makes his 14th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 4-5 with a 7.57 ERA, a 1.747 WHIP, 27 walks and 39 strikeouts while allowing a league-high 16 homers in 60.2 innings of work this season. Gomber took the loss in his last start, which came against the Padres at home Saturday. He threw four innings, allowing seven runs on 11 hits with two walks and one strikeout in a game the Rockies dropped 9-6. In his last three starts, Gomber is 0-1 with a 12.66 ERA, a 3.09 WHIP, eight walks and eight strikeouts over 10.2 innings of work. This marks his first career outing against the Red Sox in his 113th career major league appearance and 69th start. As a result, Gomber makes his first career start at Fenway Park in this contest as well. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Red Sox last 21 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. |
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06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has pounded left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers are hitting .289 vs. lefties this season with a .825 OBPS and 66 extra-base hits. Detmers has an ERA of nearly six on the road this season and should be fodder for the Rangers' right-handed hitting lineup featuring the likes of Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia. Even left-handed hitting Corey Seager is batting .367 vs. lefties this season. The Angels will be able to put up some numbers as well with one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball but will be battling a Rangers team that is tops in run differential this season and has the second-best home record in the American League. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game that will likely be decided by the bullpens late. |
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06-13-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitching hasn't been quite as formidable in Phoenix, even with all of the winning. Zach Davies and his 6.75 home ERA in 2023 probably won't help that cause. He's pitched 13.1 innings at home this year and allowed 10 runs, all earned. In those 13.1 innings, Davies has given up 17 hits and seven walks, with only 10 strikeouts to combat them. If there's any hope, it's that Davies currently has the lowest FIP of his career thanks to only two home runs allowed. The Diamondbacks bullpen is middling, although the back end has stabilized lately, so his goal should be handing the ball to one of the finishing arms rather than a bridge guy. Arizona's offense can bail him out, but things would be easier if they didn't have to. Consider that the over is 32-15-4 in Phillies last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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06-13-23 | Pirates +130 v. Cubs | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won eight of their last 11 games and two of their last three road games. They have scored 15 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Taillon has struggled on the mound for the Cubs, especially at home where he has given up 16 runs in four starts. He gave up five runs in his only start against the Pirates, and with Chicago having the seventh-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Cubs have lost four of their last seven games and five of their last seven home games. They have scored only eight runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ortiz has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up six runs in his last three starts. He gave up one run in his only start against the Cubs. |
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06-13-23 | Reds +100 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are playing the better baseball of the two teams in recent weeks and should be able to keep Lyles winless on Tuesday night. Lyles' propensity for giving up the long ball should favor a Reds' team that has hit nine home runs in its last ten games. Lyles (0-10, 6.84 ERA) will be making his 14th start of the season. He yielded five runs over seven-plus innings in a 6-1 loss to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. Lyles, 32, is 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA at home. Additionally, the Reds have won four of the five games started by Williamson, who should pitch well against a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .240 against lefties this season. KC is scoring just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games heading into Monday night's series opener. The Royals have also won just nine games at home this season while the Reds have won three straight and six of their last eight games. They have also won eight of their last 10 road games. |
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06-13-23 | Nationals v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the loss of Alvarez, the Astros still have one of the more potent lineups in the big leagues. One positive sign is the recent success of DH/1B Jose Abreau. Abreau is hitting .304 in his last five games and seems to have found his power stroke with two home runs and six RBI. The Astros are hitting .260 against left-handers this season and should be able to flood the bases against Corbin, who has allowed 20 more hits than innings pitched this season. His ERA also jumps over a run on the road this season and he will likely find the short porch in left field not to his liking. Consider that the over is 11-5 in Astros last 16 during game 1 of a series. |
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06-13-23 | Yankees v. Mets -145 | 7-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have lost four of the last five when playing the first game of a new series and seven of the last eight following a day off. When playing head-to-head against the Yankees, the Mets have won five of the last six played at home. Both the Yankees and the Mets are playing without their best power hitters as the Yankees are without Aaron Judge and the Mets are without Pete Alonso, but the advantage here goes to the Mets, who will be playing at home in front of their raucous crowd and have talented right-handed Max Scherzer on the mound. Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled in each of the last two starts allowing 15 hits and 11 runs in just 9 Innings with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers and White Sox. Mets starting pitcher Scherzer had a tough outing last Wednesday but prior to that had four strong performances in a row allowing four runs in 25 innings with the New York Mets winning each of the four. |
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06-12-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 10 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona starter, Henry makes his third career start against the Phillies in this contest. He comes in 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA, a 1.862 WHIP, six walks and nine strikeouts over 9.2 innings of work against them. Henry is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.338 WHIP, 20 walks and 33 strikeouts over 46.1 innings of work in nine career appearances, eight starts, at Chase Field. Philadelphia starter, Covey makes his third career appearance and second start against the Diamondbacks in this contest. He comes in 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, one walk and seven strikeouts over 7.1 innings of work against them. His lone start at Chase Field was a disaster as he took the loss while with the White Sox back on May 23, 2017. Covey threw 2.1 innings, allowing four runs on five hits with no walks and one strikeout in a game Chicago dropped 5-4. Consider that the over is 17-5-4 in Phillies last 26 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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06-12-23 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland’s pitching isn’t very good, with the team giving up 6.56 runs per game. Opponents have a .274 batting average against the Athletics, which is 29th in the league. Their 6.40 ERA is 30th, as is their 1.60 WHIP. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.73 runs per game. Their .262 batting average is fourth in the league. Their .338 on base percentage is second, while their .474 slugging percentage leads the league. Consider that the over is 15-4-2 in Athletics last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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06-12-23 | Reds +106 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zack Greinke will start for the Royals, and he hasn’t been great either. Greinke is 1-6 this year with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Greinke gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in his last start and hasn’t lasted deep into any game this season. That’s an issue when the Kansas City bullpen has the 2nd-highest ERA in the league. The Reds have looked good recently and have scored at a higher rate than they typically have this season within the past week, and the recent call-up of Elly De La Cruz has been beneficial for the Reds. De La Cruz is hitting .316 with a home run and multiple stolen bases. He also flashed his speed in scoring the go-ahead run in yesterday’s game against the Cardinals. De La Cruz has given the Reds a spark and has resulted in an offensive burst for them. The Reds’ offense has been great recently while the Royals have really struggled to score runs. Neither team is sending a great starter to the mound, but the Reds should benefit when both teams get to the bullpen. I’m taking the Reds at plus-money. |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has lost six of the last eight when playing against a team from the American League West, while Texas has won 37 of its last 55 overall and the Rangers have won seven of the last nine when facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles starting pitcher Tyler Anderson was hit hard last time out allowing five hits and four runs in five innings while striking out five but walking three. Over the last two starts, Anderson has allowed 10 runs in just nine innings. Texas has won three of starting pitcher Dane Dunning's last five starts and over that span the right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 28 ⅓ innings. Texas leads baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage and team batting average and is fourth in slugging percentage while on the mound the Rangers are fifth best in team ERA and 5th best in batting average allowed. The Rangers might have lost two of three to the Rays but have still won 15 of their last 21 and are 21-9 at home. |
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06-12-23 | Giants -127 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are playing solid baseball, winning four out of their last six games. They have been reliable on the road, sporting a 6-1 record in their last seven road bouts. The Cardinals have struggled to find a groove most of the season and have now dropped seven of their last ten games after a series loss against the Reds. This is an ideal pitching matchup for the Giants. Logan Webb is having an excellent season,and was outstanding in his start against the Cardinals in late April, limiting them to only two runs in 6.2 innings. The Giants have won in three of Webb's last four road starts. Cards’ starter Matthew Liberatore is struggling, allowing eight runs in his last two outings spanning only nine innings. |
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06-11-23 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres average 4.24 runs per game (22nd) and hit .227 (27th) with a .709 OPS (22nd). They've hit 74 homers (12th) and stolen 49 bases (10th) in 2023. The SD pitching staff has compiled a 3.78 ERA (9th) and a 1.24 WHIP (8th) with 27 quality starts. Colorado scores 4.48 runs per game (16th) and hits .259 (9th) with a .722 OPS (16th). It's hit 51 home runs (27th) and stolen 26 bases (30th) in the 2023 season. The Rockies' pitching staff sports a 5.28 ERA (29th) and a 1.50 WHIP (29th) with 15 quality starts. Consider that the under is 38-15-1 in Padres last 54 overall. |
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06-11-23 | Marlins v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the White Sox, they tab RHP Lucas Giolito for the home start. He was brilliant last time out against the New York Yankees on the road, twirling six scoreless and hitless innings before being yanked at 100 pitches. He enters with back-to-back wins for the first time this season, so that’s why it is difficult to pick a side in this one. Instead, it’s better to roll with the Under. The Under is also 3-0 in the past three for the White Sox, and 7-1 across the past eight outings for the southsiders. There were just three runs in the series opener Friday, and six total runs on Saturday. I don’t see many more in the daytime finale. |
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06-11-23 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gausman has been lights out in Toronto with a 2-0 record and a 1.65 ERA and has been mediocre on the road with a 3-3 record with a 3.76 ERA. Fortunately for Gausman, today’s start will be at home. This will be his 3rd straight start at home too, and in his last 2 starts combined, he’s surrendered just 1 run, 9 hits and a whopping 24 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. His opponent on today will be the Twins, and even though they lit up the scoreboard on Saturday, this is actually a great matchup for Gausman. Gausman, more than likely will use his splitter about 40% of the time today, and it’s gotten a 47.5% strikeout rate while limiting hitters to a .169 batting average. That’s a pitch that Minnesota has been terrible against this season as they rank 29th against splitters, with only the White Sox being worse. |
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06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won seven of their last nine games and five of their last seven home games, scoring 21 runs in their last three home games. They have hit the ball well against right-handers and Mets starter Carrasco has struggled on the mound this season, especially on the road where he has given up 12 runs in four starts. With New York’s bullpen also struggling at the moment, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games and six of their last seven road games. With the exception of his last start, Keller has done a great job on the mound at home, giving up only eight runs in his previous five home starts. He didn’t give up a run in his last home start against the Mets and with Pittsburgh having the 10th-best bullpen in the league, the team won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. |
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06-11-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks have been a reliable squad to back on the road and remain one of the hottest teams in the big leagues, sporting an 8-2 record in their last ten games including an 11-5 win on Friday and a 5-0 victory on Saturday. The Detroit Tigers are decimated with injuries and have lost eight consecutive games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen continues to dazzle. The ace has conceded just four runs in his last 17.2 innings pitched including strong outings against the Phillies and Braves in that span. Tigers’ starter Joey Wentz has been clobbered, squandering 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched. Seven of the D-Backs' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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06-10-23 | Rangers +105 v. Rays | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will look to take the series today behind 22-year-old rookie Taj Bradley (4-2, 3.60 ERA). The right-hander allowed two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and three walks over five innings to pick up a 6-2 win against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. Bradley has allowed more than three runs just once in seven starts this season. Bradley will have a tough assignment when he faces the Rangers for the first time in his brief career. Texas has scored a major-league-high 389 runs this season (Tampa Bay is second with 380), and the Rangers have scored at least six runs in 12 of their past 25 games. The Rangers will send ace right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24) to the mound today. Eovaldi allowed one hit and no walks over six shutout innings while striking out seven in a 12-3 win over the visiting Seattle Mariners on Sunday. Eovaldi, has given up more than one earned run in just one of his past seven starts. |
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06-10-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Friday night in game one of the series, the Rangers' potent offense was held to just three hits in an 8-3 loss. Leody Tavaras had two of those hits with two solo home runs. The Tampa Bay Rays are back on another hot streak after sweeping the AL Central-leading Twins this week. In the series, Tampa outscored the Twins 13-3 and improved their run differential to +135, second only to the incoming Rangers. Texas has scored a major-league-high 389 runs this season (Tampa Bay is second with 380), and the Rangers have scored at least six runs in 12 of their past 25 games. Texas has scored at least 10 runs in 16 games this season, the best total in the big leagues. The Rays are next with eight double-digit games. Consider that the over is 10-3 in Rays last 13 home games. |
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06-10-23 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals opened the series with a 7-4 victory Friday night for their second straight victory. Cincinnati is posting an average of 4.60 runs per game, ranking them 12th. The pitching staff has recorded a 5.04 team ERA, pegging them 27th. Reds' starter Andrew Abbott is making just his second career big league outing and his first career road start. I expect the veteran lineup to get to the rookie. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Cardinals last 21 home games. |
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06-10-23 | Marlins v. White Sox +108 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have won five of their last six games and four of their last five home games. They have done well against right-handers and Alcantara has still been unable to regain his form from last season, giving up 11 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the White Sox in this game. The Marlins have won six of their last seven games, but they split their last eight road games. White Sox starter, Kopech has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up nine runs in his last five home starts and will keep Miami’s offense in check. |
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06-10-23 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Tigers | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona and Detroit return to action this afternoon following an 11-6 Arizona victory on Friday night. The game was 2-2 after 6 innings, and then the Diamondbacks blew the doors open with 7 runs in the 7th. The Diamondbacks are leading the NL West as we are only a couple weeks away from the halfway point in the season. The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson versus Matthew Boyd. Boyd may be the slightly better pitcher, but Arizona is also good against lefties. Both pitchers have been inconsistent over the past month, and both have ERAs above 5.00. I do not expect either one to be lights out. The difference is going to be the hot Arizona offense. They have been hitting the ball very well lately. |
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06-09-23 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati’s pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 5.16 runs per game. Opponents have a .263 batting average against the Reds, which is 26th in the league. Their 5.02 ERA is 27th, while their 1.44 WHIP is 26th. In his last start, Lively gave up six hits and five runs in seven innings, leading to a 5-1 loss to Milwaukee. St. Louis’ pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 4.59 runs per game. Opponents have a .270 batting average against the Cardinals, which is 28th in the league. Their 4.23 ERA is 16th, while their 1.44 WHIP is 27th. In his last start, Montgomery gave up four hits and four runs in 5.2 innings, leading to a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh. Consider that the over is 11-5 in Reds last 16 overall. |
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06-09-23 | A's v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s are looking for their first three-game winning streak of the season, but I doubt their chances to beat the Brewers on Friday night. Luis Medina has been awful thus far, posting a catastrophic 11.68 ERA and 2.27 WHIP through three road starts (12.1 innings pitched). Although Oakland’s offense has shown signs of life lately, I’m backing the Brewers because of their pitching staff. The Athletics’ bullpen has been horrible for most of the season. It has improved over the last ten days, tallying a 3.96 ERA and 3.26 FIP, but the Brewers’ bullpen has accounted for a 2.96 ERA and 3.73 FIP in that span while going 2-0 with three saves. |
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06-09-23 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers were able to salvage the finale of their 3-game series in Cincinnati, winning 6-0 on Thursday behind LHP Clayton Kershaw. Now, Los Angeles turns to RHP Michael Grove looking to make it two in a row after getting outmuscled by the Reds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Grove has been dismal, going 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in 21 innings across 5 starts with a 1.52 WHIP. In his 2 starts on the road, he has been even worse, conceding 11 runs in just 6 1/3 innings. The Phillies counter with LHP Ranger Suarez, and he hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistency this season, either. Suarez has made 5 starts with 24 2/3 innings, posting a subpar 5.47 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. At home, he has been hammered for 9 runs and 10 hits in just 7 innings across 2 starts, good for an 11.57 ERA. Consider that the over is 20-8 in Dodgers last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. |
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06-09-23 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles will give the ball to right-hander Tyler Wells on Friday night. Wells is 4-2 in 12 appearances, 11 starts. He has an ERA of 3.29 while throwing 68.1 innings and giving up 44 hits. Wells' K/9 rate is 9.2 and he has a WHIP of 0.85. At home this season, Wells is 2-2 in six starts with an ERA of 2.45. He has three quality starts at home and has allowed 24 hits in 36.2 innings this season. He has a K/9 rate of 9.8 and a WHIP of 0.79. Consider that the under is 16-5-1 in Royals last 22 road games. |
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06-09-23 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Tigers | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers for a quick 3-game series. These teams are on opposite tracks lately as the Tigers have lost 6 in a row while the Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 10 and lead the NL West. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and he’s having another great season as he’s 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He’s tasked with shutting down a Tigers’ lineup that has been cold recently. The Tigers have scored only 8 runs over their 6-game losing streak and were nearly no-hit yesterday. The Tigers are dead last in the MLB in batting average and have 18 fewer runs than the next-worst team in that department. Michael Lorenzen will start for the Tigers, and he has also had a great season to this point. Lorenzen is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Lorenzen allowed just 1 run in his last start but couldn’t get any run support as the Tigers were unable to win. Arizona ranks 6th in the league in runs scored and is dangerous from any part of their lineup. Lorenzen could pitch great and allow only a couple of runs, but Detroit has a weak bullpen and just a couple of runs could easily be enough for Kelly against the Tigers’ lineup. |
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06-09-23 | Rangers +147 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams have jumped out to the front of the league in almost every offensive category, including ranking 1st and 2nd in runs per game. While the Rangers have been surging in the last few weeks, the Rays have steadily remained one of the best teams in the game since Opening Day. Regardless of the outcome of the series, baseball fans are in for a treat with these two lineups facing off. On the mound for the visitors is Andrew Heaney, a lefty that has come into his own in the last few weeks. He was added to be a 4th arm behind Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, and little did we know that they would turn into one of the best rotations in baseball. Heaney finished May with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which included several impressive outings against the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. And to little surprise, he’s been better away from Globe Life Field, which has seen a lot of high-scoring games, as he’s posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. It’s truly impressive how the Rays have been able to remain unfazed despite the numerous injuries to their starting rotation. At the moment, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Josh Fleming and Shane Baz are all sidelined with injuries, so Tyler Glasnow’s return couldn’t have come at a better time. The right-hander has made 2 starts this season and has allowed 4 runs and 9 hits along with 14 strikeouts against the Dodgers and Red Sox. However, it’s concerning that Glasnow doesn’t completely seem like himself yet. His fastball velocity is down nearly 2 MPH from his average and his slider’s RPM are down a bit too. |
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06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -128 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox turn to veteran RHP Mike Clevinger for Game 2 of today's doubleheader after Wednesday’s game was postponed due to poor air quality as a result of the Eastern Canada wildfires. The right-hander Clevinger has a dismal 2-2 road record with a 5.60 ERA across 27 1/3 innings in 5 starts away from home, and he has a shaky 1.51 WHIP. Clevinger has allowed 17 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings in his last 4 road outings, too. The Yankees counter with RHP Randy Vasquez, who allowed 2 earned runs, 4 hits and 3 walks with 6 strikeouts across 4 2/3 innings in a loss against the San Diego Padres May 26 in his only previous outing. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Giolito held them hitless for 6 innings on Tuesday night, but expect the offense to break out in a big way after being held down, especially after getting a full day of unexpected rest. |
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06-08-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays and Astros conclude their 4-game series today in Toronto and today’s matchup will feature two hot pitchers. Jose Berrios will start for the Blue Jays and he’s finally looking like the player the Jays thought they were getting 2 years ago. Berrios is 5-4 this year with a 3.66 ERA and he’s allowed only 2 runs in his last 3 starts. After a strong showing from the Astros in the first game between these teams, they’ve been shut down by Toronto’s pitchers since, scoring just 3 runs in the past 2 games. They’ve faced Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, who have both been pitching great, but Berrios will not make it easier for the Astros’ hitters. Framber Valdez will start for the visiting Astros, and he’s also had a great year. Valdez is 6-4 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP and has allowed only 1 run in his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays have been hot lately but the biggest factor in their recent success has been their pitching. Offensively, the Jays haven’t been bad, but they haven’t exploded either. The Blue Jays have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 12 games. Toronto has also struggled against lefties this year, ranking 22nd in the league in OPS compared to 4th in the league against righties. This game has all the signs pointing towards a great pitching matchup and I’m expecting both teams to be shut down. |
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06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox and Yankees will play a doubleheader on Thursday after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to poor air quality. It was an eerie scene. Hopefully things are better on Thursday. The White Sox won the first game of the series 3-2. The Yankees are currently playing without Aaron Judge, and while they still have plenty of bats, it will be tough to adjust to the absence of their best player. Both teams are slated to start pitchers who are looking to rebound from disastrous starts last week. Luis Severino will make only his fourth start of the season for the Yankees, and he gave up 7 runs a week ago. His first 2 starts, however, were excellent, so there is reason to think the last game was an outlier. The Sox will start Lance Lynn. Lynn has struggled for much of the season, but he had strung together 3 quality starts before giving up 8 runs last week. Again, there is some recent trajectory that gives hope of a good start today. We should also remember that the Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and that should help to suppress scoring too. Neither of these teams hits very well against right-handed pitching, and again, the Yankees are down their best hitter. Under these circumstances, I like the under, even though the line is low. |
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06-08-23 | Orioles -104 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six Thursday games and the Brewers are 1-5 in their last six Thursday games. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six during game three of a series, 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 7-3 in their last ten road games. The Brewers slash .224 .304/.399/.703 at home and did not perform as a first-place team should in May (.219/.291/.369/.660). Their June splits aren't any good, either (.205/.303/.327/.630). While they have managed to win five of their previous six, I don't anticipate them going on a much longer winning streak. The Orioles boast the second-best winning percentage on the road (64.5%). Thursday's starter Bradish has been a reliable arm in the O's rotation, holding half his opponents to one or no runs scored. Against a Milwaukee team that's 25th in scoring, 26th in OPS, and 27th in batting average, I'm confident he will have a quality start. |
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06-07-23 | Cubs v. Angels -136 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only four guys from this Chicago team have seen Jaime Barria, combining for four hits (one double) in 11 at-bats. On the other side, the current Angels are only 9-for-50 against Jameson Taillon, but four of those nine hits went yard. Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-8 with a couple of dingers, Hunter Renfroe is 4-for-12 with a homer, and Jared Walsh is 2-for-8 with a round-tripper and 3 RBI against Taillon. Jaime Barria has pitched very well so far this season. It’s hard to trust the Angels’ bullpen, but the Cubs’ relievers haven’t been at their best either, notching a 2-10 record with a 5.19 ERA in May and a 4.60 ERA and 5.94 FIP in the last ten days and 29.1 innings of work. Hereof, I’m going with the Angels, looking for their offense to make a difference. |
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06-07-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -134 | 1-0 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 home games. They have the highest-scoring offense in the league and they’ve been on a roll in recent games, scoring 32 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to continue playing well offensively in this game because they’ve done a great job against right-handers this season and Flaherty has been shaky on the mound on the road, giving up 13 runs in his last three road starts. He gave up two runs in his lone start against the Rangers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last eight road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only seven runs in their last three road games. Things won’t get easier for them in this game because Gray has done a great job on the mound for the Rangers and has won five of his last six starts while giving up only three runs. He gave up one run in his last two home starts. |
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06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds +1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have won six of their last 10 games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 11 runs in their last three games. They have hit the ball well against right-handers and Syndergaard hasn’t been effective on the mound this season, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up nine runs in his last two road starts, and with Los Angeles’ bullpen being one of the worst in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Reds in this game. The Dodgers have lost three of their last four games and five of their last eight road games. Even though Williamson has struggled on the mound for the Reds, he has done a better job at home where he gave up five earned runs in two starts. With the Dodgers struggling against left-handers this season, they will have a hard time keeping up with the Reds in this game. |
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06-07-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has struggled when it comes to putting runs on the board of late and Lopez hasn’t been able to sustain his quick start in his first season with the franchise. He’s been roughed up of late, as an ERA over six in his last three starts bears out, and facing a Tampa Bay team with plenty of dangerous hitters in their lineup isn’t a cure for what ails you. Tampa Bay is a very good offensive team. Consider that the over is 33-15-3 in Twins last 51 on astroturf. |
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06-06-23 | Orioles +114 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore Orioles will be out to continue their road success behind Kyle Gibson when they face the Milwaukee Brewers today in the opener of a three-game series. Gibson (7-3, 3.89 ERA) will be opposed by Freddy Peralta (5-5, 4.62) in a matchup of right-handers. The Brewers lost 2-0 at Cincinnati on Monday after winning the first three games of the series. Milwaukee managed just one hit in six innings against Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, who was making his major league debut. Milwaukee is 28-4 this season when scoring four runs or more, 4-24 when generating three runs or fewer. Gibson has won his past three starts, allowing four runs in 19 2/3 innings for a 1.83 ERA over that stretch. He has not given up a home run in his past four starts and has served up just six all season. Peralta has been inconsistent, losing three of his past four starts. He lasted six innings in his latest outing despite giving up three runs on a pair of first-inning homers in a 3-1 loss at Toronto on Thursday. |
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06-06-23 | A's v. Pirates -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A's right-hander James Kaprielian (0-6, 8.12 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller (7-1, 3.25). Kaprielian has split time this season between Oakland and Triple-A Las Vegas. He is the first A's pitcher to start a season 0-6 since Mike Mohler lost his first eight decisions in 1997. Kaprielian has the dubious distinction of pitching no more than seven innings in all 54 of his career starts. Keller, who has never faced the A's, has won four decisions in a row and has notched at least eight strikeouts in seven straight outings while establishing himself as the Pirates' ace. Of the A's 62 games this season, they've lost by more than one run 49 times. They are now 5-26 on the road. |
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06-06-23 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago turns to RHP Lucas Giolito, who has been money at home, going 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and .205 opponent batting average. However, he hasn’t been able to bring that solid pitching with him on the road, going just 1-3 with 5.68 ERA and .292 OBA with 14 walks and six homers allowed in just 31 2/3 innings in six starts away from home. The Yankees turn to RHP Clarke Schmidt, who has been a little better lately. Still, he has been hammered for a 5.01 ERA and 1.51 WHIP overall this season. While he is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in 30 2/3 innings in six May starts, he has allowed two or more walks in five of those six starts, while coughing up at least five hits in five of those outings, too. He is just 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA with six homers and 11 walks allowed in 32 2/3 innings in seven outings in front of the home fans. Consider that the over is 14-5 in Yankees last 19 games following a win. |
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06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -150 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is a much better-hitting team at home this season, hitting .267 in front of the home crowd including 76 extra-base hits. Starter Luzardo is also much better in front of the home crowd, despite his rough outing in his last start in Miami. His ERA is nearly a run lower at home while his K/9 rate jumps up by a strikeout per game. He faces a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .226 on the road this season and .248 vs. left-handed pitching. Greinke is winless on the road this season and his ERA jumps up by nearly a run and a half away from Kauffman Stadium. The Marlins’ offense is hot, and that is a big deal for a team that was expected to have to scratch for runs and rely on its pitching staff all season. |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -129 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units St. Louis has struggled of late after seemingly righting the ship during the early part of May. The Cardinals stand 10 games under the .500 mark and one has to seriously wonder if John Mozeliak will be a seller at the trade deadline. Wainwright has sputtered in his limited action this season, posting an ERA north of six while averaging just over five innings a start. Texas is a dangerous team as they can win low-scoring games, as we saw in Friday’s opener with the Mariners, and slugfests. Perez has played with fire at times this season, giving up 74 hits in his 61 innings of work, but with the Rangers sporting a run differential of +143 entering Sunday, it’s clear that the bats can make up for any shortcomings on the mound. Give Texas the upper hand here as they prevail at home. |
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06-05-23 | Brewers +112 v. Reds | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are playing better in recent games and this pitching matchup favors them. Brewers’ starter Julio Teheran is making a comeback and so far he looks great, limiting the Giants to one run and the Blue Jays to one run (zero earned) in his two outings spanning 11 innings this season. The Reds have Andrew Abbott making his MLB debut in this game. I usually stay away from pitchers making their debut, especially considering the strength of the Milwaukee bats in this series. They have accumulated 20 runs in the first three games of this series, winning all three decisions. The Reds have hit a bump and are struggling at home where they are 1-5 in their last six games. |
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06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are scheduled to start right-hander Brandon Bielak (2-2, 3.19 ERA). It will be his first career appearance against Toronto. Bielak has won two of his past three starts, including a 5-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. He gave up one run on three hits over 5 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays are scheduled to start right-hander Alek Manoah (1-6, 5.46). In his one previous start against the Astros, which came on April 23, 2022, Manoah tossed six innings of two-run ball and picked up the win. Manoah, whose only win this season came on April 5, has lost his last two starts, allowing seven runs, six earned, over a combined seven innings. The Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games since starting the season 17-18. They are also 8-3 in their last 11 road games. |
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06-05-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston hasn't been their best offensively in 2023. Their greatest strength is putting the ball in play, as they're eighth in strikeout rate this season. The Astros may have to play this series without All-Star Jose Altuve though. He injured his oblique on Saturday against the Angels. He's only played 11 games this season, another reason why the Astros aren't one of MLB's top offenses as they were in 2022. Consider that the under is 15-5-1 in Astros last 21 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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06-05-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies will hand the ball to Aaron Nola (4-4, 4.70 ERA) today. Nola has been effective in his career against the Tigers, posting a 1-0 record with a 1.93 ERA in three starts. The Tigers gave up four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and fell 6-2 against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jake Burger hit a walk-off grand slam. The Tigers, who received a two-run homer from Spencer Torkelson in that loss, will arrive in Philadelphia after being swept by the White Sox in a three-game series. Detroit starter, Wentz has had a rough first half of the season with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 11 starts, and he’s had very little run support in any of those outings. But even without his offense scoring for him, Wentz has the tendency to put his team in a hole early on. He has a .289 xBA with a 45% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate which all rank in the bottom 30% in their respective category. |
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06-04-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -145 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miller has pitched pretty well in his first handful of starts in the majors but he was lit up by the Yankees in his last outing. Facing a team with a prolific lineup with plenty of power bats may be a lot to ask of a young guy that hadn’t pitched above Double-A prior to being called up to the majors. Eovaldi has been rolling this season and went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA with nine walks and 31 strikeouts over 37.2 innings in five starts in the month of May. Opposing hitters posted a measly .178/.232/.264 slash line in those outings. After seeing how Seattle sputtered against an equally hot pitcher in Gray on Friday night, you have to give the advantage to the hosts here as the Rangers earn the win to take the series. |
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06-04-23 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In his last start, Miller took the loss as he was roughed up by the Yankees at home Monday night. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing eight runs on 11 hits with no walks and three strikeouts in a 10-4 Seattle defeat. Over his last three starts, Miller is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, two walks and 13 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. In his seventh career major league start, Miller pitches against the Rangers for the first time. He makes his first career start at Globe Life Field in this contest. Prior to his recall, Miller was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA, a 1.322 WHIP, three walks and 18 strikeouts over 19.2 innings in four starts with Double-A Arkansas of the Texas League. Consider that the over is 15-5-2 in Rangers last 22 home games. |
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06-04-23 | Angels v. Astros -144 | 2-1 | Loss | -144 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels have been roughed up in Houston this weekend, as the Astros have won the first three games of this American League West Division series, while outscoring the Halos by a 20-10 margin. Even RHP Shohei Ohtani was unable to pitch them to victory on Friday night. Now, the Halos turn to RHP Griffin Canning to try and salvage something in this series. He is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across eight starts. However, he also has a dismal 7.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three daytime starts across 13 2/3 innings, while teams are hitting .291 against him. The Astros are starting to round into championship form after a slow start. Houston is 18-5 in the past 23 games dating back to May 9, and the hot streak started when the team visited the Angels in Anaheim from May 8-10. The Astros are 5-1 in the past six games during Game 4 of a series, while Houston is 38-14 in the past 52 games inside the AL West. In addition, the Astros have been stacking wins, going 11-3 in the past 14 games following a win, while cashing in 11 of the past 16 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. |
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06-04-23 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago White Sox will look to complete the 3-game sweep over the Detroit Tigers in their game today. There’s been little offense for both teams in this series, and pitching has dominated so far. For the White Sox, Michael Kopech will start and he’s 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA. Before getting hit around by the Angels in his last start, he had back-to-back starts going 7+ innings without allowing a run. Despite only going 4.1 innings against the Angels, he threw 10 strikeouts as the strikeout continues to be a big part of his game. Kopech generally finds success against weaker lineups such as the Royals and Guardians, so the Tigers, given their current struggles, shouldn’t give him a rough outing. Matthew Boyd will start for the visiting Tigers and he’s 3-4 with a 5.96 ERA. Boyd gave up 5 runs in his latest start but only 1 in his start before that.. The Tigers’ bullpen has surprisingly pitched really well this season and the past 2 games against the White Sox has not been an exception. If Boyd doesn’t make it deep into this game, which he typically doesn’t, they should be backed by a deep bullpen that’s shut down the Sox so far. The White Sox have continued to struggle offensively but thanks to their pitching staff, 5 runs in 2 games has given them 2 wins. Consider that the under is 45-21-3 in Tigers last 69 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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06-04-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +112 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t nearly as dangerous on the road where they are only two games above the .500 mark. They lost two of three to the Cubs prior to this series and lost game one of Saturday's DH. The Red Sox are three games above .500 at home. Rays’ starter Taj Bradley is an inexperienced rookie. The right-hander does not go deep into games, last 5.1 or fewer innings in all but one start this season, and the Rays bullpen is actually a bit of a weakness, ranking 22nd in the big leagues with a 4.32 ERA to go with a 1.34 WHIP. Tampa Bay has lost in each of Bradley's last three starts while Boston has won in four of Houck's five home starts this season. |
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06-03-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers +115 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Yankees and Dodgers have hit the righties well in the last couple of weeks (New York 110 wRC+, Los Angeles 116 wRC+). On paper, the Yankees have a huge advantage on the mound, but I’m backing the Dodgers to come out on top and eventually hand Gerrit Cole his first loss in 2023. Cole has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs, including four home runs, over 11 innings. He also has been more hittable on the road this season. Some of the Dodgers own a strong record against Cole. Mookie Betts is 7-for-14, Freddie Freeman is 6-for-17 with three doubles, and David Peralta is 5-for-12 with three doubles. JD Martinez is only 8-for-40 but has slugged three doubles and a couple of home runs off Cole, who struggled a lot in his last two outings. |
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06-03-23 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If you look up the definition of dominant, Sonny Gray pitching at home would be the synonym. The veteran has been absolutely incredible this season with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts, so it’s hard to believe he’s been even better at home, but it’s true. At Target Field, Gray has a 1.27 ERA with a 0.862 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s limited hitters to a .198 batting average and .520 OPS during those 35.1 innings at home. The under is 4-2 when Gray starts at home, and as you might have guessed, the 2 times the total went over was due to the excess scoring from Minnesota, which I don’t see happening against Allen. It’s also important to note that this is Gray’s second start of the season against the Guardians, and the first one ended with just 7 runs. However, that was with Cleveland scoring 3 runs on just 4 hits and having just a .211 batting average and .179 xBA against Gray. Both bullpens are still well rested since Thursday’s game featured an excellent starting pitching matchup, so runs should be scarce from the first pitch to the last. |
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06-03-23 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 6-9 | Win | 115 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cristian Javier (6-1, 2.97 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros as they attempt to clinch the series today. The right-hander has won each of his past four starts, including a 10-1 victory on Sunday against the Oakland Athletics when he allowed one run on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over five innings. Javier has a 1.96 ERA during that four-game stretch with 24 strikeouts against seven walks in 23 innings. Javier is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA over nine career appearances (five starts) against the Angels. He earned a 5-4 victory over the Angels on May 10 after allowing two runs on three hits and one walk with a season-high 11 strikeouts over six innings. Patrick Sandoval (3-4, 3.42 ERA) will make the start for the Angels today. The left-hander absorbed the 2-0 loss against the Miami Marlins on Sunday, allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks with two strikeouts over six innings. Sandoval has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in seven of 10 starts this season. Sandoval is 0-4 with a 7.55 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Houston, which selected him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft and traded him to the Angels in July 2018 in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado. In his most recent start against Houston, Sandoval did not factor into the decision on May 8 after allowing four earned runs on seven hits and no walks with two strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings. |
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06-03-23 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | 10-8 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have a team .290 batting average, .363 on base percentage, and are averaging six runs over their last 10 games. While the Cincinnati offense has been flourishing the Brewers bats have been colder than the beer in a Milwaukee winter. Milwaukee has an .183 team batting average, .270 on base percentage, and is averaging only 3.1 runs per game over their last 10. Consider that the under is 34-15-4 in Brewers last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. |
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06-03-23 | Tigers v. White Sox -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With one big swing of the bat, the Detroit Tigers finally solved Dylan Cease last weekend. They'll have to face their nemesis once again in the middle game of a three-game series in Chicago on Saturday afternoon. The White Sox right-hander is 10-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 14 career starts against the Tigers. He has also recorded 96 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings in those outings. Cease had three straight quality starts prior to his rough outing on Sunday and has been a better pitcher at home this season than on the road. The White Sox have hit the ball better at home this season and have improved overall as a lineup in the month of May after struggling throughout April at the plate. The return of Elroy Jimenez will further help the White Sox cause and Cease should thrive back at home against a Tigers' team that is still among the worst overall hitting clubs in baseball. |
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06-03-23 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox average 5.23 runs per game (4th) and hit .264 (4th) with a .769 OPS (5th). Boston has hit 65 home runs (16th) and stolen 31 bases (24th) this season. The pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA (25th) and a 1.32 WHIP (16th). Tampa Bay scores 5.86 runs per game (2nd) and hits .267 (2nd) with a .829 OPS (1st). It's leading MLB in homers (103) and stolen bases (77). The Rays' pitching staff sports a 3.69 ERA (7th) and a 1.21 WHIP (5th). Consider that the over is 15-5 in Rays last 20 overall. |
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05-29-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 2-7 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With a couple of convalescents on the mound, I can only rely on Atlanta’s offense to make a difference. Also, Oakland’s bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball and sits at 6.36 ERA and 5.50 FIP for the season. The Athletics’ relievers have accounted for a 5.05 ERA and 4.32 FIP in the last ten days and 35.2 innings of work, while the Braves’ bullpen has thrown 33.2 frames in that span, posting a 4.54 ERA and 3.85 FIP. The Braves have won 11 consecutive games against the Athletics dating back to 2008. Atlanta is undoubtedly a much better offensive team than Oakland. |
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05-29-23 | Rays -124 v. Cubs | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are more than capable of putting up runs but the Rays have been the better team when it comes to holding the opposition in check. Bradley has pitched well in his first taste of the majors as he is up as a matter of necessity with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen on the shelf. Stroman turned in his best start of the year against the Mets in his last start but has been spotty against Tampa Bay in his career going 5-8 with a 5.04 ERA in 16 career starts against them. He yielded eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-2 home loss to Tampa Bay last season. This Rays team is loaded with talent and confidence, which is something that can’t be overlooked by any stretch of the imagination. Look for Tampa Bay to come into the Windy City and take the opening game of this series thanks to their ability to come up with clutch hits, something the Cubs have lacked in all season. |