Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder have had an extra day to rest and prep for this one, but Oklahoma City is now on the front leg of a back-to-back. The Thunder host Houston on Monday, and that has us looking toward the under in this contest. Oklahoma City's last five games have all gone over the total, but we believe that is giving us some value on the under in this spot. The first two games between these teams have seen 198 and 214 points. The Thunder are by-far the league's best team on defense. After playing at a top-3 pace last season, the Spurs are outside the top-10 in tempo this season.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re going to look at the total going “under” the high number tonight with the Bucks the going 16-8 to the “under” when off a loss which is best in the NBA under that scenario. Sure, Denver is the third best “over” team in the NBA this season but they’ve gone “under” in back-to-back games with both teams ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating across their last 10 games respectively. Look for both defenses to come out and play with the two head-to-head matchups last season averaging just 213.5 ppg between the Nuggets and Bucks.

Rating: 2 Units

Jalen Suggs will miss tonight’s action and the Magic are 9-16 straight up without him while averaging just 101 ppg compared to 20-15 straight up with him averaging 106 ppg this season. Instead we’re going to recommend a play on the “under” with the Magic going 8-1 to the “under” when listed as a home underdog and are 10-2 to the “under” across their last 12 games. Sure, tonight’s total is listed low but it’s for a reason with both the Warriors and Magic ranking top ten in defensive efficiency this season and top five in defensive rating across their last five games respectively. The Magic run at a bottom five pace and will likely dictate that tonight being the home team so take the “under” in what should be a low scoring, defensive battle in Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta had covered the spread in seven-straight games before blowing a 19-point lead to Orlando. Early money has shown on the under in this contest, and we agree with it. The under has cashed in four of the Hawks' last five games. When these teams met in Detroit before the All-Star break, they combined to go 67-for-77 (87-percent) from the free throw line. Detroit is bottom-5 in the league in free throw attempts per game. The Pistons nearly doubled their average number of free throw attempts in that game (38 vs 20). If that happens again, we'll pay to see it.

Rating: 2 Units

Injuries have begun to mount once again as the Raptors have lost three-straight. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl have both been ruled out of this one. Both missed Saturday's 12-point loss at Oklahoma City. Toronto's best chance for success in this matchup is probably to run as much as possible. Even though Houston is at home, the Raptors have the travel and rest advantage. Toronto's last four games have all gone over the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total. During this current six-game losing streak, the Rockets have given up an average of 116 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are 7-2-1 to the “over” across their last ten games with the Grizzlies 10-3 to the “over” across their last 13 with Memphis also sitting 7-4 to the “over” with a rest advantage which they’ll have tonight. Sure, the total only landed at 236 in their first head-to-head meeting but the Grizzlies were playing without Ja Morant as the team coughed the ball up 21 times which we don’t see happening tonight. Memphis still runs at the fastest pace in the league with OKC sitting 12th in pace so look for a high scoring showdown in Memphis between the Thunder and Grizzlies tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re going to look towards an “under” result with LA sitting as the top rated defensive team across their past 10 games and the Pacers sitting ninth during that stretch. Indiana has gone “under” or pushed in their last three games and although LA has gone “over” in four of their last five games, James has averaged 31 ppg during that span and will have to do their best to replace his offensive production in the lineup today. As a road favorite, the Pacers are 8-4 to the “under” with the Lakers going 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog. Look for points to come at a premium in today’s non-conference bout between the Pacers and Lakers as both teams look to overcome crucial injuries in their respective starting lineups.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are averaging just 106 ppg across their last five and both teams sitting top six in defensive efficiency on the season. Both also rank top eight in fewest fast break points allowed on the season with Minnesota running at a bottom five pace on the season as well. Randle and Donte DiVincenzo who will also miss this game scored 49 of the team’s 113 total points in their last head-to-head matchup with Fred VanVleet scoring 18 on Houston’s side who will miss tonight as well. Look for defense to take precedence in Minnesota tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas is 7-1 to the “over” and Boston 5-3 to the “over” across their last eight games respectively. When playing as a road underdog the Mavericks are 12-5 to the “over” on the season with these two combining to go 20-13 to the “over” in non-conference games. Sure, the Mavericks sit 13th in defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last 10 games specifically they rank 25th in defensive rating. Dallas runs at a top ten pace and they may want to run fast tonight, especially with how thin they are in the front court. Look for a high-scoring output in Boston tonight for their non-conference showdown against Boston.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs and Hawks are a combined 21-13 to the “over” in non-conference games this season with Atlanta specifically running at the second fastest pace. Both teams rank bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency with Trae Young scoring 34 points in back-to-back games leading into this one. The Spurs are 9-6 to the “over” when listed as a favorite which will be the case tonight so look for tons of points to be scored in Atlanta for Spurs vs Hawks as Fox looks to fit in with the Spurs rotation.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games with the Lakers going 4-1 to the “over” across their last five. Sure, both teams run at a slow pace but both rank in the top half of the league in fast break points per game and both rank bottom half at defending the fast break. It’s worth noting that Maxi Kleber isn’t listed on the injury report and should make his Lakers debut tonight, adding a three-point shooting threat off the bench. Take the “over” in tonight’s Lakers vs Clippers showdown.

Rating: 2 Units

Both our power ratings and game line both list the 76ers as 1-2 point favorites. Sure, Philadelphia has been in solid form as of late, but their 6-0 ATS run came all listed as an underdog as they’ve gone 7-11 ATS as a favorite on the season. With all the injury concerns heading in, we’re going to play on the “over” in this game with Dallas 6-1 to the “over” across their last seven and Philadelphia 6-2 to the “over” across their last eight. Both Philadelphia and Dallas rank bottom six in defensive rating across their last six games with the Mavericks going 11-5 to the “over” as a road underdog on the season. In non-conference games these two have combined to go 22-9-2 to the “over” on the season so let’s look for another “over” result in Philadelphia tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Kings have allowed 126 ppg during their trip and 235 ppg scored during the first three head-to-head matchups between these two teams. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” in their last six games respectively so let’s look for another “over” result in Minnesota tonight with Sacramento 7-4 to the “over” as a road underdog this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are 7-3 to the “over” when listed as a road underdog. The Knicks sit first in offensive rating across their past ten games with the Rockets sitting 13th during that span. Although Houston sits third in defensive efficiency on the season, they sit just 22nd in defensive rating across their last ten games. Both teams last played Saturday and when on equal rest, the Knicks are 18-10 to the “over” on the season. Look for abundant scoring to occur at MSG for this matchup tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Three of the last four meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Powell is averaging 24.1 points per game this season. He was 11-for-15 from the floor with 27 points in Friday's win over the Hornets. His absence is going to be felt in this one. During this impressive nine-game run from the Raptors, the under is 7-2 as Toronto has held those nine opponents to an average of 104.7 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks have gone 8-2 to the “over” across their last ten games with San Antonio sitting 7-4 to the “over” in non-conference games on the season. The Spurs have allowed 128 ppg across their last five games with Milwaukee ranking fourth in effective field goal percentage on the season. Look for points to be scored in tonight’s Bucks vs Spurs clash in San Antonio.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams play at a bottom ten pace with Phoenix an NBA best in “under” results against conference opponents at 16-9 and second best when playing at home going 16-7 to the “under”. On offense both of these teams rank bottom ten in fast break points per game and both are bottom half of the league in turnover ratio, but it doesn’t look like it will convert to a high scoring game tonight with both teams sitting bottom half of the league in points off turnovers on the season. Look for defense to be at the forefront tonight in Phoenix as they go for their fifth straight “under” result.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jazz are 5-2 to the “over” across their last seven games as the only two “under” results came with totals listed at 248 and 239.5 and tonight’s total listed at 229. The Warriors are 5-1 to the “over” across their last six games and 11-6 to the “over” when listed as a home favorite with Utah sitting at 16-9 to the “over” when playing on the road. The Jazz have averaged 113.5 points per game during their losing streak as we’d only need them to reach 110 points tonight for the “over” to hit which we think they can do against a Warriors defense that’s currently struggling.

Rating: 2 Units

Knicks are 6-1 to the “under” off 2-3 days of rest and 8-2-1 to the “under” with a rest advantage this season. Sure, the Kings have gone “over” in five of their last six games, but they’re 7-5-2 to the “under” in non-conference games and of those last five games, all teams they played rank top half of the league in pace with New York ranking 27th in pace on the season heading. The Knicks should command the pace in this one and they’ve gone “under” in three straight so let’s look at the “under” to occur once again at MSG tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Sure these two both sit top six in “over” results this season, but the Pelicans haven’t seen a total this high aside from their Jan 14th win over Chicago where the total was 243 and went “under” by 11 points. Memphis did win 132-124 last time these two played but they went a combined 58-64 from the free throw line and we don’t anticipate that many free throws being attempted again tonight as they only combine to shoot 45 free throws per game on the season. We’re sure to see some scoring but outside of DeJounte Murray, C.J. McCollum and Trey Murphy III, it’s tough to tell where offense will come from on the New Orleans side.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ll look at an “under” play with Boston going 13-6 to the “under” as a road favorite this season. Both teams rank outside the top ten in offensive rating their last five games with the Lakers specifically ranking 22nd and both playing at a bottom ten pace as well. The Celtics rank dead last in fast break points per game on offense and are sixth in fewest allowed on defense. It’s also worth noting that LA ranks top ten in fewest three-point field goal attempts per game with both ranking top four in fewest free throw attempts per game as well so points coming while the clock is stopped will be at a premium. Take the “under” in LA tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami has gone “over” in four straight with Milwaukee going “over” in six-straight which is the play we’ll recommend here tonight. Miami ranks bottom five in defensive rating across their last five games with Milwaukee playing at a top 10 pace in which we’ll likely see a fast tempo with the Bucks getting tons of rest before tonight. Milwaukee ranks third in offensive rating their last five games and although the Heat won’t have Butler, some other role players are starting to get more comfortable on offense including Kel’el Ware who has scored 25 and 20 points respectively across his last two games while averaging 7.7 ppg this season and Duncan Robinson scoring 21 and 22 his past two games while averaging 11 ppg on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors are 5-2 to the “under” across their past seven with both teams ranking top 10 in fewest fast break points allowed per game and both bottom 10 in fast break points scored on offense per game. Both teams sit within a game of each other in the highly contested Pacific Division and although Golden State is shorthanded and enduring a tough stretch, they’ll bring the defense out tonight with these two combining to go 9-7 to the “under” in divisional matchups on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams rank top 10 in defensive efficiency and outside of Kyrie Irving, it’s tough to tell where offense may come from tonight on the Dallas side. He had 33 points last game with Daniel Gafford scoring 31 but the Mavs big man averages just 12 ppg on the season so we don’t expect another high scoring performance from him, especially with Minnesota ranking top 10 in fewest points in the paint allowed per game. Dallas is 4-2 to the “under” as a home underdog and Minnesota 9-7 to the “under” as a road favorite so we expect points to come at a premium in Dallas tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia now sits as the worst ATS team in the NBA so let’s recommend a play on the “over” with these two combining to go 22-6-2 to the “over” in non-conference games with Denver specifically going 13-2 to the “over”. Philadelphia is 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games and while Denver leads the league in fast break points on offense, they also allow the fourth most fast break points on defense which bodes well for Tyrese Maxey averaging 31 ppg across his past seven games. It’s also worth noting that Denver is 16-9 to the “over” after a win which will be the case tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams rank bottom ten in defensive efficiency with the Nets ranking top 10 in three pointers made per game and the Knicks ranking second to last in three-point percentage allowed on defense. Both teams are 4-2 to the “over” across their last six games respectively and although both rank bottom five in pace, Brooklyn may want to crank up the tempo knowing the Knicks are playing on tired legs tonight. New York is 16-10-1 to the “over” so let’s look for some points in Brooklyn as these cross-town rivals go at it once again.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be Boston’s fourth game in their last six days, coming off a 119-115 overtime loss to Atlanta at home. It’s worth noting Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play in that game with no injury designation heading into today. The Warriors defeated the Celtics 118-112 in Boston back on Nov. 6 but Boston didn’t have Jaylen Brown and Porzingis for that matchup. Our power ratings favor Golden State but with so many injury concerns on their side we’re going to look at an “under” result with Boston going 12-5 to the “under” as a road favorite on the season. Golden State is 4-1 to the “under” as a home underdog and are 4-2 to the “under” across their last six games. The Celtics are 6-2 to the “under” across their last eight games with both teams sitting top 10 in defensive efficiency heading into their matchup today.

Rating: 2 Units

Portland's Jerami Grant returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing the Blazers' last nine games. Grant struggled to shake off the rust, scoring just seven points with three turnovers in 25 minutes against the Rockets. We're going to look toward the under in this contest. The Bulls' last three road games have each stayed under the total. This will be the Blazers' seventh back-to-back of the season. In the second leg of the previous six, the under has gone 4-2. The Blazers are bottom-5 in the league in offensive efficiency this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Look at the point totals from teams making their first trip to the Intuit Dome. Brooklyn scored 67 points on Wednesday. Miami scored 98 on Monday. Since December 1, only one team has hit the 110-point mark at the Intuit Dome (Houston on December 8). Golden State, Orlando, Sacramento and Philadelphia were all held below 100 points in their first trip to the new arena. The under is 10-3 in the Clippers' last 13 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder shot 43-percent from three-point range in that contest, but just 15-for-45 from two-point range. Dallas out-scored Oklahoma City 22-2 in fast-break points and 36-22 in points in the paint. Prior to that, Oklahoma City's last five games had all gone over the total, and that's the direction we're looking in this one. Prior to that stumble, the Thunder had scored at least 118 points in each of their previous five games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed that contest against the Mavericks, which was his first missed game of the season. He is questionable to return on Sunday. After a promising start to the season, Brooklyn's defense is now on the cusp of entering the bottom-5 in the league.

Rating: 2 Units

A glaring issue for Indiana on the road has been their defense. New York's lowest-scoring home game in this series was 121 points. Indiana allowed the most free throw attempts all season, and that has carried into this series.  The real question is how are the Knicks going to get stops. Their injuries have left them severely undersized. Indiana was already the league's highest-scoring offense. They held the Pacers to a season-low 91 points in game five, also at home, but that won't happen again. Sharp rotations and denying the paint is a must, especially after allowing 62 points in the paint on Friday. The high-scoring Pacers have not had a "total" beneath 214.5 all season. 

Rating: 2 Units

It is impossible to ignore how injured the Knicks are right now. OG Anunoby's absence will hurt them on both ends, and they have an excellent record with him. However, Indiana's struggles in the first two games were not with scoring. Rather, their inability to get stops, especially while Brunson is on the floor, is hurting them. The Knicks are constantly getting open shots, hence their 55.4% shooting from the floor. New York's offensive rebounding will wake up eventually if the Pacers do start forcing misses. 

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of the ref's calls at the end of game one seemed to favor the Knicks. Regardless, now is not the time for the Pacers to rely on excuses. Rather, they need to keep scoring as they did during the regular season. Game one's 117 was encouraging, as this club is now up to 113.6 points per contest in the postseason. With all of the offense in the world, Indiana still has clear issues defensively. They gave up the fourth-most points per game this season and have followed it up by surrendering 111.7 in the playoffs, more than any other team still alive. In game one, a team that was 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and facing the NBA's best offensive rebounding unit held up nicely. New York only grabbed eight. It didn't matter, as the Knicks hit 53.7% of their field goals, 47.8% of their threes, and attempted 26 free throws. Indiana also forced 14 turnovers to no avail.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under. 

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS loss, 4-0 in Nets last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 5-1-1 in Nets last 7 road games. While the Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games, 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Friday games, and 6-2 in Celtics last 8 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 13-3-1 in Nuggets last 17 home games, 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game, and 36-17-1 in Nuggets last 54 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. While the Over is 21-6 in Kings last 27 games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-2 in Kings last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous gam, and 10-4 in Kings last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Rating: 2 Units

The under 6-2 in Lakers last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 22-8-2 in Lakers last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. While the under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Memphis.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets had mostly sidestepped COVID-related issues prior to Monday. They played without six rotation players after D.J. Augustin, Kenyon Martin Jr., Garrison Mathews and Jae'Sean Tate all entered health and safety protocols in advance of a 123-99 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Houston also played without its starting backcourt of Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) and rookie Jalen Green (rest) while taking a fourth consecutive loss, but both should be available Tuesday. Still, the Rockets were forced to lean on a pair of G-League call-ups (Trevelin Queen and Daishen Nix), while three other rookies logged significant minutes in the loss to the Hornets. Queen put up a team-best 17 points after never scoring more than two in an NBA game previously. Consider that the over is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 games playing on 0 days rest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cleveland Cavaliers dominated the depleted Toronto Raptors on Sunday night.  The Cavs likely will face another short-handed team when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night. Cleveland overcame COVID-19 absences of its own to beat the Raptors -- who were missing 10 players due to COVID -- 144-99 in Cleveland. Toronto was missing its top five scorers, all of whom were in the NBA's health and safety protocols. The Raptors had just four players from their regular roster available. Cleveland gained its most lopsided victory of the season despite having seven players in the health and safety protocols, including Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Consider that the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New Orleans.

Rating: 2 Units

Combined, these two teams average 204.6 points per game this season, but OKC is again without star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 20.4 points and 4.4 assists. Washington is a Top 10 defensive team and OKC in the Top 16 via rating.

Rating: 2 Unit

This total is perplexing considering these teams combined for 203 points in the same gym on Wednesday when the Mavs were without Luka Doncic. He's listed as doubtful tonight. Why would the score change much? Dallas only got 98 points in the first game despite shooting 16-for-32 from deep, and the Mavericks aren't repeating that.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are missing big scorers in Khris Middleton and Jaylen Brown. The Bucks have been one of the best Under teams in the NBA with 75 percent of their games landing Under. Sixty percent of Boston's have and three of four at home.

Rating: 2 Units

I don't believe that Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is going to play with a knee injury, and that obviously massively downgrades Denver offensively. The team is struggling to score as it is -- both the Mavs and Nugs are in the bottom 10 in scoring but Top 10 in scoring defense. If/when Jokic is ruled out, I may come back and take Dallas ATS, although it is in the second of a B2B so not a lock I will do so.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games, and 9-2 in Hawks last 11 games following a straight up win. While the under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games, 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a home favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

While the two games at Brooklyn both stayed below the total, a change of venue should bring more scoring. The Bucks average 120.8 ppg on this floor. Needless to say, they're going to score more than they did in Game 2. Slowing down the Nets is a different matter; Brooklyn averages 119.9 ppg on the road. The last meeting between these teams, here at Milwaukee, produced 242 points. I won't be surprised if this one also cracks the 240 mark.

Rating: 4 Units

Game 7s are typically possession-by-possession affairs with more physicality allowed by the refs, fewer fouls called, more shots challenged… and these two teams have already failed to reach their offensive averages eight of nine (L.A) and six of nine (Dallas) times against each other this season. Only one way for us to see this one.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cavaliers are the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.7 ppg. But everybody has been filling the net against the Pacers recently. Their saving grace is that they have plenty of scoring themselves. Without the inside presence of Myles Turner, most opponents have been getting to the hoop with no problem against matador Indiana defense. Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has targeted the low scoring output and having his players play at a quicker tempo, taking more shots, which has completely ruined their already ordinary-at-best defensive capabilities.

Rating: 3 Units

No Zion Williamson, no Brandon Ingram, no problem playing defense for the Hornets, probably. The Ball Brothers — Lonzo for the visitor, LaMelo for the home team — will engage in a 3-point missing contest. Via some miracle, the Pelicans have the NBA’s second-best defensive efficiency rating in the last 15 games, a number that should remain in range with Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward and probably Miles Bridges out for Charlotte.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

All reports indicate that neither Lebron James nor Dennis Schroeder will suit up for the Lakers tonight. Those are the two guys for whom the offense flows its best. They won a game vs. Denver the other night without them, when both teams scored less than 100 points. When you have good defenders, you give yourself a chance to win that way. Kahwi Leonard has been deferring to Clippers’ teammates lately while he plays with a nagging injury.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

Normally we’d say that ‘What went up must come down’ after the Pacers scored 152 points vs. OKC in their last game. But coming down 28 points from 152 still leaves you with 124, and the opponent is the Wizards, known for their sizable defensive yields (and offensive stat-stuffing). The Stat Guys, Westbrook and Beal, see this as a personal challenge to get to 153 points. ‘Hey, these guys can score. We need to score 40 per quarter!’ Westbook figures to have a free pass to attack the hoop all night long in the absence of Myles Turner, Indiana’s defensive anchor/shot-blocker. First-season Pacers’ head coach Nate Bjorken has ruined their prior defensive systems as he is intent on installing and executing his ‘get it and go’ offensive system from the Raptors. Which is the main reason why they have a losing record. But everybody’s scoring average is up, so no harm done.

Rating: 4 Units

John Wall is out for the Rockets, so an inefficient offense with the worst three-point percentage in the NBA should probably get worse. The Bucks would figure to get a comfortable lead in this and with so few games remaining in the regular season, they should be looking to avoid getting into a track meet, play some defense because it will become more necessary in the post-season, and get that right instead of running up and down the floor trying to pile up as many points as possible, which would create the type of game from which a team would gain nothing from, other than a cheap W against a lousy team, which any decent team can accomplish.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

While the Hornets have been able to score 60 and 66 points in one first half and one second half during the last week, followed up, and preceded, those halves with very sub-par halves. It’s all part of the ’16-point quarters’ that head coach James Borrego is on record as saying that he expects in the absence of some productive offensive players. They’ve slowed down the pace and have tightened up the defense to help make up for the scoring droughts. Given the way the Celtics have improved their own defense, expect a few of those scoring droughts for the home side this afternoon.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

Unrealistic for the Cavaliers to up and duplicate what they did against the Bulls the other night — scored 121 points. They average only 104.1 ppg, fewest in the NBA. They won 103-90 in Charlotte nine days ago. Opponents are onto the Hornets in the absence of key offensive players Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk. The latter isn’t really a consistent offensive threat, anyway. Head coach James Borrego is actually expecting these weak-butt 16 point quarters. The other day he said something like, ‘I have to find something for when we have those 16-point quarters…” Hey, guess what? After you have the 16-point quarter, it’s too late to find anything and you probably don’t have it, anyway. Since scoring only 90 in the loss vs. Cleveland, the Hornets have scored only 97 and 91 in defeats at New York and Chicago.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

The Hawks’ rotation is loaded with good-percentage three-point shooters around center Clint Capela, who should own his match-up against the Knicks’ Nerlens Noel if he can stay out of foul trouble. Good offensive players such as Bogdan Bodanovich, Lou Williams for Atlanta, and Derrick Rose of New York, have not played in either one, or both, of the meetings between the Hawks and Knicks so far, which ended with 221 points in January, 235 points in February. By our math, those numbers are larger than tonight’s total of 217.5.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

When two teams lazy with the defense (118.1 and 118.6 ppg allowed, #28 and #30 in a 30-team league) get together and the home team is #9 in scoring offense, and the road team is fully capable of scoring a lot of points when most of its best players are playing, and was able to score 116 vs. the Kings when they recently met in Minnesota, then getting cute with an Under doesn’t seem like the way to go. Sacramento center Richaun Holmes thinks that he should receive more attention for his defense, and maybe he’s right. But his ability to play it well enough hasn’t rubbed off on his teammates, and Holmes has missed the last four games anyway, and won’t play tonight. The one guy out of five who buys into defense ain’t there.

NBA Total of the Day

‘We couldn’t get stops when we needed to’ has been a common statement made by an Indiana player in recent post-game laments. They can score and they’re not shy about putting up shots — an NBA-high 97.2 of them in their last five games, and both the Pacers and Spurs are in the top five in shot attempts per game for the season. Indiana played yesterday. Therefore, from the get-go, the rested and ready Spurs should come out with their younger legs and attack the Pacers’ relatively weak interior defense, an overrated part of Indiana’s game with Myles Turner’s blocks totals impressing a lot of people who don’t see the big picture. At the end of regulation in San Antonio, the teams were at 126-126. That’s 252 points, 21.5 more points than tonight’s total.

Rating; 4 Units

The Bulls lost the most recent meeting with the Cavs 103-94 on March 24. Without Zach Lavine on the floor for the Bulls, the Cavaliers, whose 111.1 ppg allowed ranks #11 in scoring defense, have an easier time of it on that end of the floor. Last night, Chicago overcompensated in attempting to protect the paint and were deficient about getting out on Memphis’ three-point shooters. Live and learn, practice makes perfect, and these games are often practices. In Cleveland, Chicago faces an opponent that takes and makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. You don’t even have to get out after them much on the perimeter. They’re not going there often and when they do, their 33.8% make rate is #29 in a 30-team league.

Rating: 4 Units

After resting the three players mentioned in today’s Winning Points in the automatic home win against Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, the Jazz will show up with close to a full boat in front of their home fans, and not deprive them of points two games in a row. Utah scored only 22 points in the first quarter, 18 points in the fourth vs. OKC. Unacceptable. A repeat of that would give the Pacers license to steal one tonight. Neither side shot well (41.3% for Utah, 39.8% for Indiana) when the Jazz won 103-95 on the road in January. The Pacers have added Caris LeVert to the offensive arsenal since then. Myles Turner has missed the last few games for them which helps unclog the interior for them on offense, but hurts on the defensive end.

Rating: 4 Unit Total of the Day

The first meeting in Boston was 96-95 game that included Lebron James and Anthony Davis for the Lakers. That’s a lot of points, from guys who get fouled a lot, missing for the re-match as far as the Lakers are concerned. They might have to get lucky to reach our forecast of 90.

Rating: 3 Units

The Suns let their defensive guard down in the second half last night after they’d led the Rockets by as many as 25 points, a lead that was built up on wide-open three-pointers against socially distant Houston defense. The Heat, by their own account, packed their defensive pants for this West Coast road trip. They held the offensive-minded Blazers to 98 points on Sunday while scoring 107 of their own, which is 7 points fewer than defensively suspect Portland allows per game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Hornets will be without Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk, scorers #2, #3 and #5 at 19.6, 15.9 and 13.1 ppg. Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham, Miles Bridges — all nice players but not the most consistent in terms of scoring reliability — get more minutes and shots in their absences. The Lakers will be without Davis and James, who, of course, are their top two scorers at 22.5 and 25.4 ppg. The B squad is 5-8 when both don’t play because they can’t replace that kind of production.

Rating: 3 Units

Jamal Murray hasn’t played the last four games for Denver. Center James Wiseman is out for Golden State. Kelly Oubre seems unlikely for them as well, which would leave them without their #3 and #4 scorers. Murray is Denver’s #2 scorer. If he hasn’t played four in a row, it seems unlikely they’d ship him along with the rest of team for the second of back-to-backs. With offensive cogs missing on both sides, the defensive assignments become easier. Not as easy as Denver scoring only 8 points in yesterday’s fourth quarter but you get the idea.

Rating: 3 Units

The Kings allow an average of 118.5 points per game, and that’s without having played the Jazz yet! They still have three games to play against Utah, who scores 117.0 ppg, #3 in the NBA. Sacramento’s defense was bad enough to give up 115 to the Lakers with L.A. missing Lebron James and Anthony Davis. The Spurs, who’ve been losing a lot of games lately, got 115 and 120 against the Kings, who can put the ball in the basket well enough. Sacramento has scored 141 and 132 vs. the Spurs and Warriors very recently, 128 vs. the Bucks.

Rating: 3 Units

Losing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward puts a major crimp in the Charlotte offense. Losing Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, Al Horford, having Lu Dort hurt all the time, puts a major crimp in the OKC offense. In their last five games, both teams are shooting only 41.5% overall, which is #28 and #29 in that span in a 30-team league.

Rating: 3 Units

In an effort to make the playoffs, the Bulls acquired Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. He has not disappointed, scoring 21+ points in every game so far. Defense is optional in their first season under Billy Donovan. The available players have been changing since Day 1 because of injuries, etc. and now the trade. It’s hard enough to install a defensive system in Year One without having interruptions in the rotations. But they’ve got two guys who can go off — Zach Lavine and Vucevic — and Lauri Maarkenen isn’t chopped liver at 16.4 ppg. Malcolm Brogdon is an overlooked Pacer leading them in scoring at 21.2 ppg. Caris Levert joined them 12 games ago and averages 15.9 ppg. Nate Bkorkenen is another first-season head coach and he’s been wanting the Pacers to play more like the Raptors, which is what many new coaches do after they were assistants on teams that won. Better to do it with Raptors players better conditioned for it. Defense has been getting lost in the translation.

Rating: 10 Unit NBA 10* Total of the Month

Consider that the over is  4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win, 11-1 in Jazz last 12 Monday games, 7-1 in Jazz last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400 and 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games as a road favorite.  While the over is19-8 in Bulls last 27 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 7-3 in Bulls last 10 games as an underdog.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Total of the Week

Consider that the over is 14-3 in Nets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-2 in Nets last 11 games following a ATS loss, 13-3 in Nets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 13-3 in Nets last 16 games as a favorite, 16-5 in Nets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 19-7 in Nets last 26 overall. While the over is 19-7 in Pistons last 26 games playing on 2 days rest, 8-3 in Pistons last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 16-6 in Pistons last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams met twice already this season, and both meetings came up well short of 221 points. Not once in the last 10 meetings between these teams have bookmakers listed a total as high as 221 points. In fact nine of the last 10 times these teams have faced each other the total was lower than 215 points. Miami is allowing an average of 108 points per game this season, and they gave up 107 points in a loss to Toronto in their last game. Boston is allowing an average of 107 points per game, ranking #3 in the NBA in that category.

Rating: 2 Units

All four regular season meetings went Under. That's not too surprising actually as neither team plays at a fast pace. The Under is 6-1 in Denver's last seven home games and 21-7 their last 28 games overall. The Under is 7-2 in San Antonio's last nine road games and 9-0 their last nine conference games. When their jumpers aren't falling, the Spurs can struggle to score. While that's not a problem entirely unique to them, they are pretty dependent on three-point shots going in. The Nuggets play much better defense at home (103.6 PPG allowed) than on the road, but we're interested to see where the buckets come from on a team that lacks a primary scorer and playoff experience.

Rating:  2 Units

The Thunder are a top five team in defensive efficiency and Dallas was just held to only 99 points in their last game. But the problem for OKC is their own lack of scoring. Over the last 10 games, they've broken the 108 pt barrier only twice. They just lost 115-105 to Denver here at home Friday night. The Under is 8-2 the L10 times the Thunder have been coming off a double digit loss at home. They should also allow a far lower shooting percentage here than they did to the Nuggets (who shot at a blistering 56.5% clip).

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies are known as a defensive team. While that's mostly true, they've still allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to reach triple-digits in scoring. The last time that the Blazers played the second of back to back games, they allowed 143 points. The last two meetings between these teams have both produced 211 combined points.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston is led by superstar guard James Harden, who is the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP award this season after leading the league in scoring at an average of 30.4 points and adding 8.8 assists. The difference for the team this time around in the playoffs is that Harden has another future Hall of Famer in the backcourt with the addition of point guard Chris Paul, who is in awe of his teammate. Over is 11-3 in Timberwolves last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 12-5 in Timberwolves last 17 vs. NBA Southwest, and 15-7 in Timberwolves last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

This has been maybe the most exciting match up of the season to date in NBA, with three meetings decided all by 4 or fewer, and each of those also “over” in the process. T-wolves have also covered all three of those clashes. Moving forward, we’ll see how Minnesota adapts without injured PG Jeff Teague. The issue isn’t replacing Teague with Tyus Jones in the starting lineup, but rather the loss of one of the few players that has Tom Thibodeau’s trust. The Jones-at-point-guard starting lineup was a plus-48 in its 44 minutes over two games without Teague last week, but the Wolves were outscored by 37 points in 52 minutes with at least one reserve on the floor, with their bench being primarily responsible for a recent loss in Milwaukee. Their depth will continue to be tested as they play a league-high 17 games in January, but with Jimmy Butler carrying a bigger load, T-wolves like their chances.

Rating: 2 Units

New Orleans playing unusual set of home games on back-to-back nights, while rested New York is coming off Thursday’s visit to San Antonio. The Pels covered three of their first four this season when unrested, and must note the home team is 23-10 vs. the points in New York Knick games this season. The Pelicans took care of the Knicks twice last season, with PF Anthony Davis scoring 31.5 ppg and taking 18 rpg. New Orleans didn’t have the services of C Boogie Cousins for either game last season and still won and covered both against the Knicks, with NY leader Kristaps Porzingis held to 15 ppg and 33% by Davis. Three of the top four Knick scorers in the series from last season are no longer with the team. Pels 12-2 L14 “over” prior to facing Dallas last night (9-1 L10 at Smoothie King Center).

Rating: 2 Units

With return of C Hassan Whiteside from a knee injury against Orlando, Miami regained a key piece. However, Heat G Dion Waiters (14.3 ppg) is down 2-3 weeks with a sprained ankle, and Miami will likely be without starting F Justise Winslow (only minimal practice work Thursday) and tough guy F James Johnson (iffy with an ankle). However, series tech trend favors Miami, which is 15-2 SU and has covered 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Nets. Brooklyn has dropped 6 of its last 8 against the spread, and has been sloppy in December, committing 15 turnovers per game. Nets on 12-4 “under” run; Heat “under” 20-8 L28.

Rating: 2 Units

The recent trend to note with New Orleans is its string of eleven straight “over” results thru Dec. 21. What gives? Pels rank 27th defensively in the fourth quarter and 30th defensively over the last three weeks. Even over that 11-game stretch, they’ve allowed a reasonable 105.7 points per 100 possessions with both Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis in the game, but they’ve been pretty dreadful defensively with one or both off the floor. Nets trending the other way lately (“under” 8-1 last nine thru Dec. 21), but Brooklyn defensive efficiency numbers have dropped off into mid-December, so another high-scoring New Orleans game could be in the offing.

Rating: @ Units

All of a sudden, New Orleans games have resembled indoor track meets, with Pels scoring 108 or more in last eight thru Dec. 14, and “overs” nine straight into Dec. 15 game vs. Nuggets. New Orleans had a 30-point scorer in each of its first five December games, with Rajon Rondo registering a 57/9 assist-turnover ratio, E’Twaun Moore and Dante Cunningham combining to shoot 26-for-41 from 3- point range, and their opponents shooting pretty well too. Now Anthony Davis has returned to the fold, so the points should continue to flow. Fortunately for Wiz, John Wall has been activated after recent knee injury, and if Wall is at full strength, this could turn into quite a fireworks show at Cap One Arena.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers held on by a thread to beat Washington 113-112 on Dec. 9 in Los Angeles, but the lineups will be shifted in the Wizards’ favor this time around. Washington G John Wall has returned from an extended absence, while the Clippers will likely be without G Austin Rivers (concussion) and F Danilo Gallinari (glute contusion). The Clips will especially miss Gallinari, who was the top LA starter that night, scoring 25 points. On the plus side, LA welcomed back PG Milos Teodosic recently, stabilizing the position in the wake of injuries to Patrick Beverley and Rivers. Wizards can make the revenge angle work, but Scott Brooks’ crew hasn’t gotten much separation at Capital One Arena this season, logging a 3-8 mark as home chalk. “Under” might be a better option, as the Wizards went that way in 6 of their last 7 and the Clips are without Gallinari.

Rating: 2 Units

The Over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 games following a straight up win, 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. Western Conference, and 10-4 in Warriors last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. While the Over is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 7-1 in Spurs last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

The under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Thursday games, 8-3 in Rockets last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.

Rating: 2 Units

The under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 8-3-1 in Rockets last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-4 in Rockets last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston has been “over” 18-4 in its last 22 prior to hosting the Lakers Friday, and the last 10 Celtic games have averaged 222.4 ppg after tallying 222.6 in 14 games in January. Boston played last night, and Celtics have been “over” the total in 6 of last 7 games when unrested. The Clippers have been over the total in their last 5 games, giving up 123 ppg in that run.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

The Over is 10-2 in Spurs last 12 games following a ATS win, 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 12-3 in Spurs last 15 home games. While the Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in San Antonio.

<p>Rating: 2 Units</p>

<p>While James couldn’t hold up in the heat, San Antonio veteran Tim Duncan thrived with 21 points on 9-of-10 shooting to go with 10 rebounds. The 38-year-old power forward played 33 minutes and operated at will in the interior. Duncan shot 49 percent against Miami in the 2013 Finals while averaging 18.9 points and 12.1 rebounds. In addition, the over is 12-3 in the L15 Miami playoff games and they are 19-9 over in the last 28 games vs. Southwest Division Opponents.</p>

<p>Rating: 2 Units</p>

<p>The over is 20-8 in San Antonio games when they are coming off three or more UNDERS. The over is 32-20 after having won four or five of the last six games.  The OVER is 47-38 in San Antonio games coming off a game as a favorite and they are averaging 108 points over the last five games.</p>

Rating: 2 Units

Over is 5-2 in Suns last 7 overall.

Over is 5-2 in Suns last 7 vs. Western Conference

Over is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record