Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-24 | Bucks v. Pelicans +1.5 | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t look now, but the Pelicans are right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race thanks to the one-two power-punch of forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both of these All-Stars are averaging over 20 points and 5 rebounds per game. As such, New Orleans finds itself in a five-team chase for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a recent 9-3 winning run at press time. They also surrendered a season-high 141 points in a 24-point loss at Milwaukee two months ago, which works well with its 11-6 ATS mark in the series when avenging a same-season double-digit loss. On the other side of the court, the Bucks check in after hosting the Lakers on Tuesday in an overtime loss. After Laker looks, the Bucks are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in non-conference clashes. |
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03-27-24 | Pistons v. Wolves -14.5 | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves don't have any reason for a letdown in this game as they march on trying to battle for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Wolves are 25-9 at home this season and own the third-best point differential in the Western Conference. The Pistons, meanwhile, have the NBA's worst record and have the third-worst point differential in the NBA. The Wolves should not have much issue slowing down a Pistons' offense that is just 19th in the NBA in field goal shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting. The Wolves also shoot the ball well from long-range and that will be critical against a Pistons' team that is just 22nd in the NBA in 3-point defense. Expect the Wolves to pick up their third straight win on Wednesday night and push the Pistons to their 8th straight defeat. |
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03-27-24 | Knicks -12.5 v. Raptors | 145-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is playing without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow, but does it still have a shot at covering the 12.5-point spread? The better question may be, how will they stop hot-shooting Knicks guard Donte DiVincenzo? New York's sharpshooter scored a career-high 40 points on Monday, knocking down a team-record 11 three-pointers. 20 of his 23 field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, putting him eight made threes away from the lead for most three-pointers by a Knick since Evan Fournier hit 241 in the 2021-22 season. He's not the only Knickerbocker who's a matchup problem for the Raptors. Jalen Brunson scored 28 points on Monday and Josh Hart notched his sixth triple-double (11 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists) since January. The backbone of New York's squad has chemistry from their collegiate days at Villanova, making the Knicks a difficult team to play no matter the venue. They'll bury this depleted Raptors roster from three-point range, mixing in the occasional dunk and layup. I'll bet that chemistry shows up again on Wednesday, giving NY enough juice to win and cover as large spread favorites against tanking Toronto. |
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03-27-24 | Warriors v. Magic -4.5 | 101-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has a ton of advantages in this one. For starters, they're 25-10 (24-11-0 ATS) at home. Then, the Magic are drawing a Warriors team playing for a second straight night on the road. Expect the Magic's defense to hound Golden State all night long and force a ton of turnovers. When Orlando gets to the rim, they should finish those shots frequently. Take the Magic to beat the spread this time around. |
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03-26-24 | Warriors -1.5 v. Heat | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami holds a 7-game safety net from the 10th and final playoff seed, however they’ve lost six of their last ten games overall and have struggled miserably at home this season, going 13-21 ATS overall, including 3-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been golden on this floor in the series, cashing in 12 of their last 18 visits, including 5-0 ATS when seeking same-season revenge from a loss of seven or more points. Golden State arrives holding down the tenth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race, just one leg up on the surging Houston Rockets. With Golden State entering off a down-to-the-wire, last-second loss at Minnesota, look for the Warriors to improve on their sharp 22-11 ATS mark on the NBA road this season, including 10-3 SUATS the last thirteen games, as they slice up Heat on South Beach tonight. |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks -8.5 | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks should be able to power past the Lakers in this rematch. Both teams are among the highest-scoring teams in the NBA and, while neither has been effective on the defensive end, the Lakers struggle on the road defensively. LA is allowing 120 points per game on the road, ranking them just 25th in the NBA in road-scoring defense. The Bucks will dominate the perimeter, ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game against the Lakers' 21st-ranked 3-point defense. The Lakers also turn the ball over far more frequently than the Bucks, ranking 19th in the NBA in fewest turnovers per game compared with the Bucks' 8th ranking. Look for Milwaukee to pick up the win |
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03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings -9 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sacramento is currently in the heat of Western Conference playoff chase, in a three way in a battle with Phoenix and Dallas for the No. 6 seed at press time, with each team sporting 29 losses this season.The bottom line is they can’t afford to take any backward steps at this stage of the season. Sacramento will take the floor tonight looking to get even from a 112-93 thrashing in Philly back in January, marking its tenth straight loss to the Sixers in this series. With the Sixers just 4-8 ATS in the second of back-to-backers with no rest this season, including 1-5 ATS away, it’s time for the Kings to put a halt to Philly’s dominance tonight. |
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03-25-24 | Celtics -10 v. Hawks | 118-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Celtics team isn't just winning but dominating on most nights. They've been doing it shorthanded lately, and that won't be as much of an issue on Monday. As for Atlanta, there are already multiple key pieces ruled out for this one, including Trae Young. So, expect a Boston squad that is already +18 in this season series to win by double-digits. Atlanta relies on their offense, but they've only reached 115 points thrice in their last nine games. Boston is second in defensive rating among NBA teams. There isn't a more efficient offense than the Celtics', who will face no resistance from Atlanta. Take the Celtics to cover the spread. |
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03-25-24 | Nets -6.5 v. Raptors | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is the healthier team, which is saying something, as the Nets are playing without Ben Simmons, Cam Johnson, and three other players. Toronto is going to be without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow. That's a lot of talent that isn't taking the court for the home team, especially considering Toronto traded its best player, Pascal Siakam, earlier this season. Will the Nets coast to a victory? Probably not, but they're still my best bet to cover the spread. Brooklyn can knock down the three-ball, especially when Cam Thomas is in a groove and the Raptors rank 23rd in opponent 3PT%. Their rim defense is also weak (23rd in opponent rim FG%). With Thomas and Bridges leading the way, the Nets have enough offensive firepower to cover as five-point favorites Monday in Canada. |
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03-23-24 | Nuggets -12 v. Blazers | 114-111 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have dominated Portland of late, winning six straight and eight of the last nine. They have also done so with pretty sizable victories, winning four of the last 6 by 11 points or more. That included a 15-point victory the last time these teams met in Portland. With the Trail Blazers playing on Friday and with so many injuries, this should be an exhausted Portland club. They simply cannot keep up with Denver, especially if Jokic is healthy. |
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03-22-24 | 76ers v. Lakers -7.5 | 94-101 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lebron is 4-1 ATS in his career from Game 70 out during the regular season when playing with same-season revenge from a loss of 29-plus points. Life hasn’t been the same for the Sixers since the loss of the Big Man, Joel Embiid. They were 26-7 with him in the lineup this season, but just 11-21 without him at press time. Philly was on a 1-5 SU skid as well heading into last weekend and will have to do battle with Charlotte, Miami and Phoenix before landing in the City of Angels. The bottom line in tonight’s contest? The Lakers dole out $88 million combined annually to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and THIS is the time of the season when they really earn their money. |
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03-21-24 | Knicks v. Nuggets -9.5 | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks own a miserable 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS overall in this series despite their recent heroics. The Knickerbockers also show up here off a same-season revenger at Golden State and they’re just 7-14 SUATS after facing the Dubs. Yes, the Knicks own the fourth-best record in the East but overall this season the Eastern Conference owns a .477 win percentage compared to the West’s superior .523 mark. Those numbers should come into play tonight as the Nuggets take a bite out of the Big Apple. |
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03-20-24 | Clippers v. Blazers +12.5 | 116-103 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has dominated Portland, winning the last seven games. However, the Trail Blazers have won two of the last three games against the spread. It is the double-digit spread that is the concern. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight while Portland is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10. The Trail Blazers may have won only three of their last 10 games, but they hold their own. That will be the case here as well, as they lose, but only by single digits. |
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03-20-24 | Bucks v. Celtics -8 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Celtics were riding high at 29-8 on the season. They had just come off a same-season revenge victory at home against Minnesota the night before and immediately hit the road for a back-to-backer versus Milwaukee. The Bucks stormed out to a 41-23 lead after the first quarter and never looked back, going on a 25-0 run before the white flag was raised and the starters were benched, taking a 75-38 lead into the half, the largest lead in franchise history. When it was over, Boston’s hide was thoroughly tanned after a 135-102 beating. The payback tips at 7:40 in Beantown tonight, and for what it’s worth, Boston is 3-0 ATS in this series when avenging a same-season defeat of 25 or more points, with every win by double-digits. They are also 16-5-1 ATS the last twenty-two games in this series, including 7-1-1 ATS when coming off a home contest. The Bucks are just 1-7-1 ATS as a dog against foes seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 30-plus points; and finally playing on any .545 or greater NBA team seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 33 points if they are facing a .545 or greater foe is 16-2 ATS. |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota returns home to begin a four-game homestand on Tuesday. They are 23-8 at home (2-0 ATS as a home underdog). Minnesota won the first matchup 110-89 on Nov. 1 on its home court. Edwards led the Timberwolves with 24 points on 8-for-16 shooting, and Mike Conley chipped in 17 points on 7-for-9 shooting. Jokic finished with 25 points and 10 rebounds in that contest. Murray scored 14 points for Denver, which shot only 39.6 percent from the field and 18.2 percent (6 of 33) from 3-point range. In addition, Denver is 11-15 ATS as a road favorite. |
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03-19-24 | Mavs v. Spurs +8.5 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio, stands 4-2 SUATS in this series in this role, but also 15-8 SU and 13-9 ATS at home when seeking same-season triple revenge under head coach Greg Popovich, including 11-5 SU and 12-3 ATS in this role versus .577 or greater foes. Those strong numbers also include a 6-0 SUATS mark when Pop’s troops sport a sub. 600-win percentage. Dicey spot for Dallas who enters off the double avenger on Sunday against Denver with a whopping 37-point get-even game at Utah on deck. The Mavericks’ 2-6 ATS effort in their last eight games against triple revenging foes means they’ll be on our fade list tonight. |
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03-18-24 | Hawks v. Lakers -8.5 | 105-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks still had to face the Clippers at the time this preview was written, so no line was available. However, one should expect Los Angeles to be favored by at least six in this game. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but Atlanta is playing on back-to-back nights in Los Angeles against two teams battling for playoff position. The Lakers have won the last two meetings between these teams in Los Angeles and won both of those games by 16 points. In fact, when L.A. defeats Atlanta, they win big, so look for a dominating performance out of the Lakers. |
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03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sixers (37-30) struggled for a bit Saturday but pulled away for a 109-98 win over the Charlotte Hornets. Tyrese Maxey scored 30 points, Kelly Oubre Jr. added 22 and Buddy Hield had 14 for the Sixers, who played without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton and Robert Covington. Spoelstra tweaked his lineup again without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic and Kevin Love. Herro has been out since Feb. 26 with injuries to his knee and feet. Spoelstra is cautiously optimistic about Herro's return before the end of the regular season. They'll need him if they have aspirations of another deep playoff run. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pacers | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland improved to 77-30 in games with Mitchell, who is scoring 28 points per game in addition to career-high averages in assists (6.2), rebounds (5.4) and steals (1.8). They’ll need Max Strus (knee) and Evan Mobley (ankle) back in the lineup if they want to outduel the Milwaukee Bucks for the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race but they can rest tonight against a Pacers team that can’t seem to find their groove since February arrived, going just 8-11 ATS. They tend to suffer from the Monday Blues, too, with at 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS effort in their last twenty performances, including 2-11 SUATS against avenging opponents. Indiana beat Cleveland twice in the opening weeks of the season and as we all know, revenge is a dish best served cold. The Cavs’ 3-0-1 ATS record as a pick-or-dog in this series with same-season double revenge exactly seals the deal. |
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03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +4 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas stands 9-3 ATS with same-season revenge in this series over the last seven years. In addition, Jason Kidd’s boys are currently riding a nifty 11-5 SUATS run, including cashing their last five tickets in a row. Meanwhile, the Nuggets arrive off a Friday visit to San Antonio and will be staring dead ahead to a same-season revenge contest with their chief combatant, Minnesota, in the Western Conference playoff race. That spells trouble, with Denver just 3-8 ATS away before Minny meetings, including 1-5 ATS versus winning foes. The Nuggets are on an impressive SU run right now, winning four straight before the Spurs and ten of their last eleven, but the Mavs check plenty of boxes here. Look for Kidd & company to reach the winner’s circle in the last regular season meeting between the two D’s. |
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03-17-24 | Suns v. Bucks -133 | 129-140 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phoenix Suns have not been a reliable squad to back recently. They are only 4-4 in their last eight games, covering the spread on just two occasions in that span. The Milwaukee Bucks continue to succeed, issuing a 7-3 record in their last ten games. Phoenix has been kept in check recently, averaging only 112.5 points in its last five games, below its season average. Milwaukee is the superior offensive squad. Phoenix is averaging 117 points per 100 possessions compared to 118.5 per 100 by Milwaukee. When the Bucks win, it’s usually by comfortable margins. Four of their last five home wins have been by at least nine points. |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers -135 | 128-121 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units LA finds themselves tied with Golden State for the 9th and 10th seeds in the Western Conference playoff race. The Warriors also lost on Wednesday, dropping a 109-99 same-season revenger to Dallas, but the Dubs landed in a tough situation as a result: they’re a mere 3-10-1 ATS away after Dallas when facing an avenging opponent, including 1-6 SUATS against winning foes. The Lakers earned tonight’s avenging role three weeks ago when they lost at Golden State, 128-110, and they bring the NBA’s third-best Field Goal Percentage into this fray. With just 14 games remaining in the regular season, the race is suddenly on, so expect a big game out of LeBron James here. Finally the Lakers are 6-0 SUATS in this series when seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 7 or more points. |
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03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets +4.5 | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets (31-35) won for the sixth time in seven games on Thursday, rolling over the Washington Wizards 135-119 for their fourth consecutive victory. Houston has generated momentum despite being without standout center Alperen Sengun (ankle/knee) for the last two games, relying on a smaller lineup with rookie guard Amen Thompson replacing Sengun. The three-guard lineup worked against the Wizards. Thompson (20 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals) contributed an all-around effort to complement the scoring of Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet, who totaled 64 points, with Green adding eight boards and VanVleet nine assists. Houston's play of late has sparked hopes of challenging for a play-in berth in the Western Conference, with recent wins bolstering those odds. |
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03-15-24 | Suns v. Hornets +9.5 | 107-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two of the worst teams in the NBA at covering the spread. With that said, someone needs to cover, and Charlotte is in a much better spot. The Suns will have to make some decisions with their rotation, they play three games in four days, and will need to find spots to get bench guys major minutes to not tire out their stars. The Suns play the Celtics, Hornets and Bucks in these three games, the obvious game to rest some of their players is when they play this Hornets team. The Hornets have been over achieving lately, they won two of their last three games, and find a surprisingly effective one-two punch with Bridges and Miller. Vaslije Micic has been a welcomed surprise for the Hornets, he has scored double figures in each of his last seven games, and is coming off a 25 point game last time out. The Suns are going to be tired as they have to play the Celtics the night before, then immediately travel to Charlotte. This is a good spot to fade a team on a back to back. |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | 119-126 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is 22-8 ATS at home, including 19-6 ATS as home chalk. Rest assured, they will be more than anxious to make amends for a 146-111 defeat at Dallas a month ago, the worst loss this season by the Thunder. On the other side of the coin, the Mavericks were riding a 0-7 ATS skein in this series until the aforementioned drilling in Dallas. Look for OKC to improve on its A-OK 12-4-1 ATS mark in games when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 32-plus points here tonight. |
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03-13-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Cleveland was 7-4-1 ATS this season as a road pick-or dog. The Cavs saw a three-game series win skein snapped in a 123-104 home loss to New Orleans in late December. Meanwhile, on the flip side, the Pelicans arrive off an 18-point same-season avenger against Atlanta with another same-season revenge contest on tap against the Clippers. Finally, New Orleans is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in non-conference games after facing Atlanta |
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03-12-24 | Celtics v. Jazz +6.5 | 123-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A nasty 126-97 loss in Beantown, the worst by Utah in this series since at least 1990, dropped the Jazz to 7-4 ATS of late in this series. And it sets up nicely as well, with Boston wrapping up a 5-game west coast road wing here tonight. Consider that Utah is 119-37 SU and 89-65-2 ATS at home against non-rested non-conference foes since 1990, including 9-3 ATS as a dog. |
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03-12-24 | 76ers v. Knicks -6 | 79-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks are not losing back to back games at home against a team that doesn't have their star player. Coach Thibodeau will have his troops ready for this game. Maxey will likely return for the 76ers, but the Knicks should also be getting their best perimeter defender in Anunoby back for this game. The Knicks are too small in the backcourt to put Anunoby on Maxey all game, but if Philly's All-Star gets hot, they have an answer in Anunoby to slow his production. Brunson had an off game, he will bounce back here, he only shot 1-9 from three in the game, while he is shooting over 40% from three on the year. Brunson will get back to his averages and help lead the Knicks to a victory here. A win here would also give the Knicks the tiebreaker over the 76ers, which can be very important come playoff time, especially if the 76ers get hot when Embiid returns. The best unit in this game in terms of analytics is the Knicks' defense that ranks 9th in efficiency, they were able to hold the 76ers to 79 points, the defense will show up again, while the offense gets back on track with a win here. |
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03-11-24 | Celtics -9.5 v. Blazers | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It will be very likely that Boston wins this game, but many will question if 14 is a bit of a stretch. There is no denying that they have dominated the Trail Blazers of late, winning three of the last four games, and winning each of those games by at least 14. Plus, Portland has been terrible of late. However, in their last 15 losses, only three of those were by more than 13. That would make it seem like Portland could keep this game close. However, Boston is too talented at both ends of the court. They have dominated Portland in the past and will do so as well here. Boston is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10. |
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03-11-24 | Mavs v. Bulls +4.5 | 127-92 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls return home after an impressive 3-1 run through the West Coast. They are still within striking distance of the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, and Philadelphia 76ers who are ahead of them in the standings. The Bulls are 24th in the NBA in points per game. They are 23rd in field goal percentage and 19th in 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulls are 25th in the league in 3-point field goals made per game. On the defensive end, the Bulls are 13th in scoring defense. They are 11th in field goal defense and 16th in 3-point defense. The Bulls are also 16th in total rebounds per game and second in fewest turnovers per game. |
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03-10-24 | 76ers +7 v. Knicks | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The fact that the Sixers were nicked 110-96, at home three weeks ago, gets their attention, especially given the fact that Philly is 10-4 ATS of late with same season revenge from a double-digit loss, including 4-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. New York is 0-6 ATS at home since February when hosting avenging foes. Finally, Philadelphia is 12-5 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 14 or more points, including 6-0 ATS away. |
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03-10-24 | Pacers v. Magic -130 | 111-97 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is playing solid basketball of late, even with their loss to the Knicks Friday night, and have pushed into the top spot in the Southeast Division race. The Magic have struggled offensively this season but they have played good defense all year long. Indiana is the exact opposite as they lead the league in offensive output, ranking 1st in points per game and field goal percentage. Their problem has been trying to stop other teams from piling up points against them. Indiana losing Mathurin is going to be a problem for them down the stretch of the season and hurts them here. Look for Orlando, who is a solid 21-8 at home on the year, to come up with the victory in this contest. |
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03-09-24 | Jazz v. Nuggets -12.5 | 121-142 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are 10-4 ATS in games when seeking revenge from a 13-point point loss when facing .484 or fewer foes. In addition, the Jazz are caught in the middle of a same season revenge sandwich, coming off an avenger with the Bulls with yet another same-season revenge affair on tap with the Celtics while sporting a 9-19 ATS ledger in road games before battling Boston. The feeling here is you do not want to be wearing a Jazz uniform tonight. |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Booker has been the heart and soul of the Suns over the last few weeks and without him in this one, Phoenix will struggle to pull away, let alone get the win. The Celtics could be without Brown but have depth that they've been missing in past years that they can lean on heavily. Boston won in Phoenix last year and has that confidence to draw from, as well as absolute need to get out of the loss column. In the end, Boston's defensive tenacity will be the difference, as they have the scoring to build off of their ability to get stops against a Booker-less Suns team. Boston has covered the spread in two of the last three against this team, while the Suns have only covered once in their last five games, as those trends carry over into this one. |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1.5 | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York finds themselves just two games ahead of the No. 8 seed Orlando in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They’ll take the floor tonight with a case of same-season triple revenge on their minds against the suddenly capable Magic, sporting a 3-0 SUATS record in this series when playing with the aforementioned same season ‘hat-trick’ revenge. With Orlando just 12-18 ATS against same-season triple avengers, we're taking the Knicks. |
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03-08-24 | Pelicans -8.5 v. 76ers | 103-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Orleans Pelicans stand atop the division. They continue to shine, winning three of their last four games. The Philadelphia 76ers have not been reliable at home, going just 2-3 in their last five home games after a home loss to the Grizzlies. The Pelicans are the stronger defensive squad here, allowing 111.9 points per 100 possessions compared to 114.5 points per 100 by the 76ers. This matters because Philadelphia is playing without Joel Embiid and has not been scoring nearly as many points. Also, Tyrese Maxey has missed the last two games and is questionable. The Pelicans have conceded an average of only 105.8 points in their last five games. |
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03-07-24 | Raptors v. Suns -10 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Raptors enter off a same-season revenge rumble at New Orleans while standing 6-12 SUATS in post-Pelican performances, including 0-5 ATS when Toronto owns a sub .540 win percentage. Making matters worse for the dinosaurs, they have another same-season get-even affair on deck against Portland, knowing they are 1-6 SUATS in games before the Blazers’ battles. We sign off, though, with Finally, Phoenix is 7-1 ATS with same-season revenge in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Toronto owns a sub .700 win percentage. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -3.5 | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game comes down to Giannis Antetokounmpo's health primarily. He's battling an Achilles injury, so Antetokounmpo may be out again. If that's the case, Golden State should be favored and will beat the spread. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 33 points, nine rebounds, and five assists in the first game against Golden State. Nobody on the Bucks can replace that production. Milwaukee's defense doesn't force enough turnovers to stress Golden State's offense, which will allow them to get the shots that they want. Injuries and the venue change will help the Warriors end the Bucks' winning streak comfortably. |
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03-06-24 | Clippers -6.5 v. Rockets | 122-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This young Rockets team is on the tail end of a back-to-back, and they gave everything they had last night to beat the Spurs. Sengun, Van Vleet, Green and Brooks all played 36 or more minutes in the game, the stars for the Rockets did not rest. Sengun is coming off a career game, but he played 37 minutes, took 32 shots, and was all over the floor, he will not be at full strength tonight for the Clippers. Los Angeles is rested, and coming off a loss in a game where they played the Bucks without Giannis. The Clippers will be hungry to get back on track in the tightly contested playoff race at the top of the Western Conference. The Clippers covered the spread in their last two wins, and have Leonard, George and Harden all healthy for this game. The loss of Russell Westbrook will not be as impactful here, as the Rockets do not have a strong bench and rely on their starters for the majority of their production. The last time the Rockets played a back to back, they lost the second game to the Hawks and did not cover the spread. The same will happen here. |
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03-05-24 | Suns v. Nuggets -9.5 | 117-107 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have been playing tough defense lately, so I have to lay 7.5 points with the reigning champs. The Suns will miss Devin Booker a lot in this matchup. They lack a proper point guard, and the Suns will be in trouble should the Nuggets continue to impress on the defensive side of the ball. Denver has gone 8-2 ATS in its last ten encounters with Phoenix. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous five home tilts versus the Suns, and I expect Denver to extend its home dominance over Phoenix. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. |
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03-05-24 | Celtics v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The young Cavs were on a major roll at the All-Star break, claiming 18 wins in over 20 games. The Break did them no good, though, as the momentum was chilled, and they dropped 3 of 5 games heading into Friday night’s visit to Motown. However, their best achievement this season has been a super sturdy 10-7 SUATS mark in games against quality opposition (.589 or greater foes), including 7-3 at home. To top it off, they will carry a same-season double revenge chip on their shoulder into tonight’s contest. Meanwhile, the Celts arrive off a same-season revenge tussle with the Warriors, bringing a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS log in this role into this affair. And be sure to check this line, as Boston has proved to be a bust when laying points after Golden State gatherings, just 10-25-1 ATS overall since 1990. To top it off, the Beantown bunch is staring dead ahead to another same-season revenger with Denver on tap. Finally, Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in this series when playing with same-season double revenge. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks -5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season and will have the advantage of rest as they take on the Clippers, who will be playing their second game of a back-to-back on Monday night. The Bucks are second in the NBA in scoring this season but, more importantly, have held six of their last nine opponents under 100 points. The recent defensive prowess of the Bucks has improved their scoring defense to 19th in the NBA. The Clippers will have difficulty with the length of the Bucks, especially at the rim. The Clippers are just 19th in the NBA in total rebounding and that will be amplified against the Bucks. Additionally, without Westbrook there to help defensively, Dame Lillard should have his way with the Clippers guards on the offensive end. Look for the Bucks to keep rolling on Monday against the Clippers. |
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03-03-24 | Knicks v. Cavs -6.5 | 107-98 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will take the Cavaliers even if Donovan Mitchell remains on the sidelines. Cleveland will torture New York in the paint on the back of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who combine for 20.8 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game this season. The Knicks just got outscored in the paint by the Warriors. I don’t see them containing the Cavaliers’ big men. Cleveland should torture New York at the low post, and the Cavs have enough weapons to slow Jalen Brunson down. The Cavaliers boast the second-best defensive rating in the NBA (111.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). |
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03-03-24 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | 89-88 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Clippers have been a good road this season, particularly since December, but I like the Wolves to pick up the win here. The Clippers will need to make some adjustments in their rotation with Westbrook's absence and that will take a bit of time. The team will certainly not look to extend either Leonard or George's minutes given both of their injury histories. The Wolves will also likely welcome back Edwards after missing him for the second half of the Kings game. Edwards' presence will force the Clippers to account for him all over the floor and should open things up for the likes of Mike Conley Jr. and Towns. The Wolves should now have a significant advantage with the league's best defense going up against a depleted Clippers' offense. |
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03-02-24 | Jazz v. Heat -7.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat should have the majority of the players back that missed out on the final game of their six-game trip. Herro and Richardson certainly look more than likely to be back for this game and that should give a boost to the Heat in this matchup. The Jazz seem unlikely to get Kessler back on Saturday and that will make their matchup against the Heat all the more difficult. Kessler's presence helps the Jazz on the glass and at the rim. Without him, I expect a big night from Adebayo and for Butler and the Heat wings to be able to slash to the basket without fear of being slowed down. The Jazz are in the final game of a highly unsuccessful trip and look like a team that is fading from the Western Conference playoff picture. Miami, on the other hand, is in a dog fight with Orlando and Indiana trying to get out of the play-in round. The Heat will be more motivated on Saturday and have the advantage in the paint. |
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03-01-24 | Kings v. Wolves -6.5 | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defense can still win games in the NBA, and the defenses will set the tone in this one. Minnesota has the best defense in the league in terms of efficiency, and no one on Sacramento's defense can stop Anthony Edwards. De'Aaron Fox is excellent, but Sabonis is equally important to this Sacramento offense. Minnesota's frontcourt defense is the best in the league, Sabonis will have to go up against the likely Defensive Player of the Year in Gobert, while also contending with Towns and Naz Reid on the inside. The claim about not being able to stop Edwards is proven in the numbers. Ant-Man scored 35 in their first matchup against the Kings, and 34 in the second game. They have shooters on the wing, not defenders. Edwards will have his way while, Gobert and Towns control the paint on both ends. Timberwolves have won seven of their last eight, and match up well with this Sacramento team. |
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03-01-24 | Mavs +10 v. Celtics | 110-138 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavs headed into the All-Star break brimming with confidence while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS win skein, only one game back of 5th-seeded Denver and New Orleans. With it, they’ll carry a 16-9 ATS road record this season into Beantown, where they’ve managed to cash just nine of the last thirteen games inside this series. At the same time, Boston has been busy burning backers’ money this season, going just 3-6 ATS when hosting Western Conference foes. More importantly, the shamrocks arrive off a bigger battle with Philadelphia, standing only 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in post-Philly follow ups. Grab the points with the money earner against the money burners. |
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02-29-24 | Heat +4.5 v. Nuggets | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After a slow start to the 2023-24 season, Miami entered the All-Star break on a 7-1 ATS run, and now, with most of the starters back intact, they appear poised to make another second-half run this season. On the opposite side of the court, Denver closed just 4-10-1 ATS before the All-Star break. Worse, they enter tonight’s game off a same-season triple revenger last night on this court against the Kings. At just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS after Sacramento, we’re more than happy to take the dog. Finally, since 1994, Denver is just 55-108-1 ATS at home without rest, including 0-7 ATS when coming off a game in which they were playing with revenge. |
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02-29-24 | Rockets v. Suns -8.5 | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns already have a 16-point win over the Rockets and that came in Houston. Now, Phoenix, with a long winning streak at home, gets to host Houston. This year's Rockets are 5-23 (10-18-0 ATS) on the road, so they don't travel well at all. Which is why Phoenix will beat the spread in this game. Houston's weak offense is much worse on the road, barely scratching 110 points. Their defense allows 117.1 points on the road, nearly eight points more than their home average. The Suns have held this team under 115 points twice already. They've also outrebounded the Rockets in both matchups. Expect the Suns to keep the Rockets' offense in check, leading to a double-digit victory when their offense shines as always. |
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02-28-24 | Kings v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 96-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The defending champs hold the triple revenge card this evening. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine same-season triple revenge contests, as well as 10-3 ATS as a home favorite with a similar revenge motive. Sacramento supports that position going 10-18 SUATS away in the series in games in which Denver is looking to get even from an earlier loss. Finally, the Nuggets are 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS as a host in this series when seeking same-season revenge, including 6-0 SUATS when the Kings own a .570 or greater win percentage. |
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02-28-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Raptors | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks have been marginally successful on the second night of back-to-backs this season with a record of 5-4 in the second game. They have won three out of the last five backends as well. With Kyrie Irving healthy, the Mavericks backcourt is as good as any in the NBA. It also allows the Mavs to rest Doncic more and keep him fresher game in and game out. Dallas will be able to exploit Toronto's difficulty guarding the perimeter. Dallas is second in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game and Toronto is just 22nd in the NBA defending the 3-point shot. Both teams like to run but the Mavs should be the team doing the most running on Wednesday night with an edge in efficiency. I like the Mavericks to dictate pace of play, ranked 14th in the NBA, and do more damage both on the perimeter and in fastbreak points. |
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02-27-24 | Pistons v. Bulls -10.5 | 105-95 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are on their second night of a back to back, have a brand new rotation to figure out, and have only won eight games all season, they are not the play here. These tail end of back-to-backs are famous spots to fade teams, and fading the Pistons is the right play here. They have to play a tough New York team on Monday, then immediately fly to Chicago for their next matchup on the road. This would be difficult for an experienced team, let a lone a team where there best players are 22 and 20 years old. Cunningham and Duren are the top guys for Detroit, but Chicago has the answer for each. Cunningham will be going up against either Caruso or Dosunmu, they are both defensive minded guards who can take turns slowing down Cade. This also frees up energy for DeRozan to score on offense, which he has been doing very well lately, taking over the top dog role for Chicago. Duren is a nice young center, but Vucevic has been one of the most underrated centers in the league for years, he will have no problem battling a tired Duren. Chicago is not losing to Detroit twice in one season, and they will do enough here to cover the spread. |
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02-27-24 | Nets v. Magic -9.5 | 81-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic should bounce back here from a loss at Atlanta on Sunday night in what appeared to be a letdown game at the end of a road trip. The Magic now face a Brooklyn team in a similar spot, at the end of a five-game road trip just looking to get home. The Nets lost each of the first three games of the trip, failing to score 100 points in each game. They now face an Orlando team that is 7th in the NBA in scoring defense. I like the Magic to keep the Nets' offensive woes going and to put up enough points to comfortably take this game. The Magic have lost both games against Brooklyn this season but that was a different Nets team, scoring over 120 points in each contest. Now, the Nets are working through a change in coaching philosophy and roster. |
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02-26-24 | Nets v. Grizzlies +2 | 111-86 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn's shooting woes continued Saturday at Minnesota when it fell apart in the fourth quarter and wound up shooting a season-worst 33.7 percent and going a season-worst 17.1 percent from behind the arc. It was the Nets' worst shooting percentage since shooting 33.3 percent against Memphis on March 4, 2020 and their lowest 3-point shooting percentage since making 13 percent (3 of 23) at San Antonio on Jan. 17, 2023. Compounding matters were the Nets getting outscored 31-20 in the fourth quarter and 25-6 on fast-break points. The Nets were outscored 46-7 on fast breaks in Toronto and 39-22 in the fourth quarter. |
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02-25-24 | Bulls v. Pelicans -3.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With whoever is active on Sunday, the Pelicans will lean on the NBA's sixth-best defensive rating. They allow the second-most three-point attempts per game but also hold teams to the second-lowest three-point percentage. They're 22nd at defending the rim, yet allow the eight-fewest attempts within five feet of the hoop. New Orleans is 13th in defensive rebounding percentage, seventh in turnovers per game, and allows the ninth-fewest free throw attempts per contest. |
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02-25-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +1.5 | Top | 119-103 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Denver has tripped up the Warriors in all three meetings. The fact that Kerr brings a healthy 5-2 SUATS career mark in this role into this contest helps to set the stage for a major payback. Meanwhile, the Nuggets enter 0-3 ATS in this series the last three times they tripped up the Warriors three straight times in the same season. The fact that Denver has a same-season triple-revenge affair of their own up next against Sacramento just about seals the deal. Was we consider that Golden State is a long-term 24-10 ATS when seeking same-season triple revenge, including 16-2 ATS with a greater than .390 win percentage when facing a .545 or greater foe. |
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02-25-24 | Lakers +4 v. Suns | 113-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winners in seven of their last nine, the Los Angeles Lakers look to keep rolling today when they visit the Phoenix Suns in a matchup with Western Conference playoff implications. Phoenix sits in eighth place in the West, 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles, after both sides returned from the All-Star break with back-to-backs on Thursday and Friday. The Lakers look to close out the season series with a 4-1 advantage. Los Angeles took three from Phoenix early in the season on Oct. 26, Nov. 10 and an in-season tournament contest on Dec. 5, but the Suns won the most recent meeting on Jan. 11. |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -7.5 | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the Nets don’t stand a chance in this matchup even though the Timberwolves play on the second night of a back-to-back, coming off a tough battle versus the Bucks. The Nets have been bad of late. Over their last two outings, the Nets have allowed a staggering 257 points while scoring just 179 in return. Brooklyn is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 encounters with the Timberwolves. The Nets have only covered once over their previous seven games overall, and I expect them to continue to struggle when they take on one of the best teams in the league. |
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02-23-24 | Suns -3.5 v. Rockets | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won five of their last six games and three of their last five road games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 117 points per game while making 50 percent of their shots. They have also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game on the road, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance opportunities in this game. The Rockets have struggled defensively in recent games, giving up more than 115 points per game in their last three games, and will have a hard time slowing down the Suns in this game. The Rockets have lost five of their last six games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 115 points per game. They struggled at the charity stripe in recent games, making less than 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. Their rebounding has been very good and it will give them a chance in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Suns, who averaged more than 11 steals per game in their last three games. The Suns have also struggled defensively, but they played better in their last three games and will keep Houston’s offense in check. Go with Phoenix to cover the spread. |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis went into the break with two straight wins as they took down Milwaukee at home in their previous contest. The Grizzlies entered Thursday 20-36 on the season and stood fourth in the Southwest Division, 13.5 games behind the Pelicans for the top spot. They were 13th in the Western Conference standings, 19.5 games behind the Timberwolves for the top spot, 13 games behind the Pelicans for the final guaranteed playoff spot and 8.5 games behind the Warriors for the final spot in the play-in tournament. |
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02-23-24 | Raptors +7 v. Hawks | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Toronto takes the court with a same-season double revenge chip on its shoulder, including a one-point nip-job here in a 126-125 loss when the Hawks scored on a put-back with one second remaining in the game. Furthermore, they will enter the fray sporting an 8-1 ATS mark in this series as an avenging visitor. On the other side of the court sits the Hawks, a team that has struggled mightily this season in home games, including a jaw-dropping 1-15 ATS record in division contests. Atlanta is an anemic 1-5 SUATS against sub. 600 foes in games in which the Hawks are playing with a week off in between games. Finally, playing against any NBA team during the regular season with 7 or more days of rest when facing an unrested opponent is 10-1-1 ATS. |
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02-22-24 | Suns v. Mavs -140 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mavs entered the All-Star break on a badly needed 6-game win skein and suddenly find themselves back in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase, currently one game back of the 5th-seeded Suns. They bring a smart 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS log in this series, looking to avenge a 132-109 beatdown they suffered here against Phoenix a month ago. Meanwhile for as hot as the Suns are perceived to be this season, they are only 6-14-1 ATS against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 1-6-1 ATS when the Valley of the Sun is not coming off a double-digit win. Finally, Phoenix is a long-term 91-125-8 ATS in games against foes seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 20 or more points, including 0-7-1 ATS the last eight games. |
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02-22-24 | Magic +7.5 v. Cavs | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is too many points to spot the best team in the NBA at covering spreads. Orlando is 36-19 against the spread this season, that is a success rate of 65.5%, better than any other team as the Thunder are second at 62.3%. Orlando covered three of their last four games before the break, and often win when listed as big underdogs as they did against Minnesota as 6.5 point dogs and against the Knicks when they were getting 5.5 points. Cleveland is big, but Orlando has been toying with massive lineups, inserting Jonathan Isaac and making Franz Wagner a 6'10 2-guard. Size will not be an issue for the Magic. Orlando's 4th ranked defense will not allow Cleveland to run up the score, and all their size inside will limit the production or Mobley and Allen in the paint. Banchero is having a monster year for the Magic, he is more physical than Mobley and too fast for Allen, he will be a matchup nightmare for Cleveland. The Magic are the best team in the league at covering spreads, they are well rested, and will keep this one close. |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -113 | 60 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units 76ers figure to be anxious to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 128-92 thumping on this floor in early January. With it, they bring a sterling 7-1 ATS ledger into this game when sporting same-season revenge from a loss of 13 or more points this campaign. They’ve also beat New York like a drum of late, going 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS in the last seven seasons. On the flip side, the Knickerbockers are just 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS against well-rested foes that are playing with 7-plus days of rest. With New York riding a rocky 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark heading into the All-Star break, it’s time to seal this deal with the fact that Philadelphia is 109-14-1 ATS in division games it wins outright when playing with same-season loss revenge, including 73-6 ATS when coming off a loss. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -144 | 130-125 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers beat the Warriors twice at home in December, 113-112 and 121-113. Back on November 30, the Warriors defeated the Clippers 120-114 as 2-point favorites at Chase Center. At the moment, both teams are playing at a high level, so I expect another tight battle between LA and Golden State. The Warriors have only dropped one of their previous eight contests. Stephen Curry has been unstoppable during that stretch, averaging 31.5 points on 50.0% shooting from beyond the arc. I like what I see from the Warriors, so give me Golden State plus points. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and 5-3 ATS in their previous eight dates with the Clippers, who are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. |
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02-14-24 | Lakers v. Jazz -5.5 | 138-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep tracking the injury report because the Lakers might decide to rest some of their players. Hopefully, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be ready to go. I want to see D’Angelo Russell in the lineup, too, as he’s averaged 24.0 points and 6.6 dimes over his last ten outings. |
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02-14-24 | Heat v. 76ers -155 | 109-104 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Embiid (knee), Harris (hip), Batum (hamstring), Melton (back) and Covington (knee) will remain out on Wednesday, and the Sixers won't have their latest acquisition available either. Six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry, who recently received a buyout from the Charlotte Hornets, officially signed with Philadelphia on Tuesday. Lowry averaged 8.2 points and four rebounds in 37 games (35 starts) for the Heat this season before he was traded to Charlotte on Jan. 23. He never got into a game for the Hornets, which is why the 76ers ruled out his chance to oppose his former Heat teammates as he needs to work back into game shape. |
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02-14-24 | Knicks +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units New York is 4-1 ATS away in its last five road games with same-season double revenge. They are also an eye-popping 55-1 ATS in their last fifty-six road wins, including 41-0 ATS in the last 41 games (18-0 ATS as a favorite). Whew. Toss in Orlando’s 2-23-1 ATS ledger in its last twenty-six home defeats (2-13-1 ATS as a dog). Finally, the Knicks are 4-0 SUATS in this series with same-season double revenge by an average win margin of 16 PPG |
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02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sacramento Kings will go for a season-series win over the host Phoenix Suns when two of the top teams in the Pacific Division face off on Tuesday night for the fourth of five regular-season meetings. By virtue of a late schedule addition brought about by the NBA in-season tournament, the Suns got the advantage of hosting the Kings three times this season. But they gave away that home-court edge when they were beaten 114-106 in Phoenix on Dec. 8 in the first meeting between the teams. The clubs have since split a pair of games, each winning at home, and now each also has one home date remaining in the five-game season series. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox have been the driving forces in the Kings' success against the Suns this season. Sabonis has recorded triple-doubles in each of the past two meetings and has averaged 21.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.3 assists over the three games, while Fox has gone for an average of 30.0 points. |
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02-13-24 | Heat +8.5 v. Bucks | 123-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re riding the Heat again as they enter the All-Star break with positive momentum in hopes of a second-half turnaround. And for the second time in two games, they’ll be looking to even things up from a pair of same-season defeats. With it, Erik Spoelstra’s troops enter with an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS log on this floor when seeking double revenge with a winning record. Flipping the script, the Bucks are 1-5 ATS of late against same-season double avengers, including 0-3 ATS in the last three games as a host. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -145 v. Magic | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder come into this matchup with one of the more well-rounded teams in the NBA. They are fifth in the NBA in scoring offense and are ranked third in the NBA in field goal defense. The Magic are more reliant on their defense to compete, ranking well below average in several offensive categories including points per game, three-point shooting, and three-point field goals per game. The Thunder, meanwhile, are in the top ten in field goal defense and are a respectable 13th in the NBA in 3-point defense. The Thunder also protect the ball well, ranked fourth in the league in fewest turnovers per game. I like the Thunder to roll here against a Magic team that has cooled off in recent weeks. |
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02-12-24 | Nuggets v. Bucks -104 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’re looking at a matchup of a pair of teams that are considered among the elite squads in their respective conferences. Denver was flattened by Sacramento Friday night but they hope to have Porter Jr. and Caldwell-Pope back in the mix for this contest. Milwaukee rolled past a weak Charlotte squad without Middleton, giving them a chance to play their reserves while giving their starters a breather. Missing Middleton is a tough one for the Bucks but it gives guys like Portis and Beasley more opportunity to run. The Bucks are a solid 22-6 at home this season while the Bucks are 15-13 on the road. With the Nuggets potentially missing two starters, that puts too much pressure on Jokic and Murray to shoulder the load. Look for Milwaukee to come up with the victory in this contest. |
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02-12-24 | Pacers -11 v. Hornets | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers, who should feel confident arriving in Charlotte, also might look different from a meeting earlier this month. They'll be back in Charlotte after winning there 115-99 on Feb. 4. That was the Hornets' second-lowest scoring output in their last nine home games. Indiana added forward Doug McDermott -- who played three seasons there (ending in 2020-21) -- in a trade with San Antonio. Even though he was scoreless in limited playing time at New York on Saturday, he should make an impact. The Pacers also have another factor that could work in their favor from the previous matchup with Charlotte. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton was on a minutes restriction coming off an injury, but he has worked his way up to logging 30 minutes a contest. His 22 points vs. the Knicks marked his largest output in his last 11 games. |
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02-10-24 | Cavs -8 v. Raptors | 119-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has won eight straight and most of those games were played without their second and third leading scorers Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, who are both back and healthy. Cleveland's defense is second best in points allowed at 109.3 and 4th best in field goal shooting percentage allowed at 45.4. Toronto is 19th in points allowed, 23rd in field goal shooting percentage allowed and 22nd in 3-point shooting percentage allowed. Toronto has several new faces in the lineup from trades and that will take time for the players to mesh as a unit giving Cleveland an additional advantage on Saturday. Cleveland's back court of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are scoring a combined average of 47.1 points per game and handing out a combined total of 12 assists per contest. On defense, the two are combining to average 3.3 steals per game. |
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02-10-24 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers are juggling new pieces into their rotation after making several deals at the trade deadline. Coupling that with the slew of injuries that the team has and things are a little murkier for Philadelphia. The hope at the moment is that Embiid will return for a playoff run but even that is cloudy at this point. |
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02-10-24 | Spurs v. Nets -5.5 | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn dealt away several pieces ahead of the trade deadline but they are still hanging around the fringes of the play-in tournament field in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets hope that they can find a way to make up ground but it could be tough sledding. Fortunately, they get a soft team here in the Spurs, who have dropped six straight contests and who are just 5-21 on the road this season. San Antonio has struggled defensively, even with the addition of Wembanyama to their rotation. This is the kind of game that the Nets need to win if they have any hopes of making a push for the postseason. Look for Brooklyn to claw out a victory in this one to get back in the win column. |
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02-09-24 | Pelicans v. Lakers UNDER 233.5 | 122-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under. |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +3 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The primary difference between these two squads has been their performance in conference play this season where Philly stands 19-11 SU and 18-10 ATS overall, while the southbound and down birds are 13-20 SU and 7-26 ATS (more below). The 76ers were 5-0 SUATS in this series until Atlanta pulled the rug out on them in a 139-132 loss a month ago. Inside this series, Philadelphia is 4-0 SUATS with same-season revenge from a loss of 4 or more points. With the Hawks arriving off a get even rematch at Boston and a puny 3-15 ATS in Celtics follow ups versus avenging opposition. Finally, Atlanta is 0-8 ATS this season versus .400 or greater foes with same-season revenge |
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02-07-24 | Pistons v. Kings -12.5 | 133-120 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons have done a great job covering the spread lately, but I expect them to slow down at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. The Kings’ offense will be too much for Detroit. Sacramento is third in the league in 3-pointers per 100 possessions (14.8) and seventh in effective field goal percentage (56.3%). Back on January 9, the Kings cruised past the Pistons 131-110, covering an 11-point spread on the road. Sacramento made 57.4% of its field goals, and Domantas Sabonis went off for 37 points, 13 assists, and ten rebounds. I expect more of the same when the Kings host the Pistons. |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Clippers | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans arrive at Los Angeles on a three-game winning streak and will provide a stern test for that Clippers defense while coming off a 138-100 home victory over the Toronto Raptors on Monday. It was New Orleans' fifth-highest scoring game of the season, just two weeks removed from a 153-point game against the Utah Jazz. Brandon Ingram scored a season-high 41 points to go along with nine assists for New Orleans on Monday, while CJ McCollum had 20 points. The Pelicans shot 51 percent from the floor. Ingram's dominant performance included 8-of-11 shooting from 3-point range and no turnovers in 30 minutes. Ingram made five of his 3-pointers during a short burst of the third quarter, when the team went 10 of 14 from distance. While Ingram has averaged 21.8 points in 46 games this season, Zion Williamson leads the team with an average of 22.1 points across 40 games. McCollum posts 19.2 points per contest and has played in 36 games. |
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02-07-24 | Spurs +8.5 v. Heat | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a difference a year makes. The new-look Spurs, led by 7’4” rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, got out of the gates like a turtle stuck in molasses at 5-27 SU and 12-20 ATS in games before the New Year rolled in. They’ve picked up the pace since, though, riding a 5-11 SU and 10-5-1 ATS mark over their next sixteen games. They invade South Beach tonight, where Miami’s fall from grace has been dramatic as they’ve gone from Miami Nice to Miami Vice in the blink of an eye after encountering a 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS slide in mid-January. The Heat checks in off a revenge contest here against Orlando last night, with another same-season revenge battle on tap with Boston. |
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02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -11.5 | 117-125 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks are poor on the road. They only have 10 wins in 24 road games on the season. The Boston Celtics are incredible at home, going 23-3. The Hawks’ defense won’t hold up against this Celtics squad. The Hawks continue to give up a ton of points. They are conceding 120 points per 100 possessions compared to only 110 points per 100 by the Celtics. Also, Boston will shine in the offensive end. They are shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc and the Hawks are pegged 28th in the NBA in three-point defense. Defensively the Celtics remain difficult to solve, allowing an average of only 111 points in their last five games. |
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02-06-24 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -14.5 | 113-123 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks are on the rise and a loss to the Lakers on Sunday will not derail them against this Grizzlies team. The Grizzlies are without their two best players coming into the season as well as Marcus Smart and potentially Jackson on Tuesday night as well. The Knicks have tightened up their rotation since picking up Anunoby and their defense has shown vast improvement as well, particularly in the halfcourt offense. The defense won't be taxed on Tuesday night against a Grizzlies team that is last in the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. The Knicks' offense isn't as potent as the Celtics', who pup up 131 points against the Grizzlies on Sunday, but the Knicks will easily outpace the Grizzlies at home tonight. |
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02-06-24 | Mavs -135 v. Nets | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks, who are eighth in the Western Conference, own a 5-8 record since winning three straight Jan. 3-7. Dallas lost four of the six games Irving missed due to a sprained right thumb before he returned Monday and produced 23 points and eight assists in 35 minutes at Philadelphia. The team Irving left is in worse shape, as the Nets are nine games under .500 and in 11th in the Eastern Conference. Both Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith are rumored to be on the trading block ahead of the Thursday deadline, as the Nets are 7-19 in their past 26 games. |
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02-05-24 | Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | 100-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Orleans Pelicans (28-21; 24-21-1 ATS) snapped a three-game skid last Wednesday, outlasting the Houston Rockets 110-99. Two days later, the Pels wrapped up a four-game road trip with a 114-113 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. The Pelicans barely edged the lowly Spurs as firm 8.5-point favorites. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets -136 | 109-98 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It doesn’t help that a pair of All-Stars – Chris Paul and Draymond Green – are out of the lineup, either. The Nets have problems of their own, yet they own a noteworthy home-road dichotomy this campaign, going 14-9-2 ATS at home as opposed to 8-14 ATS away at press time. With the Warriors likely eyeing the Sixers, up next on Wednesday and 1-6 ATS before facing Philly, and the Nets 5-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs with same-season revenge we're on the Nets. |
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02-05-24 | Clippers -145 v. Hawks | 149-144 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even in the second half of a back-to-back, this game is Los Angeles' to lose assuming that they leave Miami without any injuries. Atlanta's defense is not equipped to slow down the Clippers offense. The Hawks also won't have their leading rebounder, Clint Capela, which will hurt them a lot. An Atlanta offense that struggles with efficiency won't fare well against the Los Angeles defense that forces misses everywhere. The Hawks are 7-18-0 ATS at home, so they don't even have that going for them. Take the Clippers to win and cover the spread. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz | 108-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee checks in after playing in Dallas last night. It’s also a series in which the Jazz have dominated, winning 132-116 as an 8-point dog in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Bucks went into the Big D last night with a sorry 8-14 ATS road ledger this season, including 0-4 SUATS in non-conference clashes. Finally, Utah is 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS at home against Milwaukee, including 3-0 SUATS when the Bucks arrive without rest. |
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02-04-24 | Raptors v. Thunder -8.5 | 127-135 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have won two straight games and nine of their last 10 home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 122 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Raptors have struggled defensively and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 120 points per game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Raptors have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last seven road games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 116 points per game on the road. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Thunder and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who average more than eight steals per game. The Thunder have done a great job defensively in recent games and held their last three opponents under 105 points per game, so expect them to keep Toronto’s offense in check. Go with Oklahoma City to cover the spread. |
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02-04-24 | Clippers -165 v. Heat | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are a bad matchup for the Heat. Miami does not possess very athletic wings except for Jimmy Butler. Leonard and George will have their way with the Heat on the offensive end much like the Celtics did recently with their high-scoring wing duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The Clippers, like Boston, shoot the 3-ball very well also, which will be a problem for the Heat. Leonard is back to playing shutdown defense, healthier than he's been in any of the last few seasons. He will likely have some floor time covering Butler which could slow down the Heat's most prolific scorer. George is also an above-average defender and will likely be tasked with slowing down Tyler Herro. The Heat's two advantages in the game will be through Adebayo and Rozier but Adebayo is not a high-leverage scorer and Rozier has been off to a slow start on the offensive end for the Heat. The Clippers will roll to a win on Sunday. |
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02-03-24 | Lakers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Lakers will be looking to even the score against New York from a five point home loss as five-point home chalk back in December, knowing they are riding an 8-1 ATS streak as non-conference dogs in same-season revenge. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite coming off a same-season revenge win over the Pacers. Finally, playing on LeBron James when his team’s win-loss is .500 is 8-1 ATS. |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers -170 | 136-121 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are dealing with some injury issues but the 76ers have been better suited to working through those issues. Maxey comes in off a career-high 51 points in their win over the Jazz as he was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. The 76ers have capable scoring options to work around the Embiid injury with Harris and Oubre Jr. looked at to step up and contribute. Brooklyn has sputtered and got Simmons back for all of one game before he was injured again, which doesn’t help matters at all either. The Nets are just 7-15 on the road this season and the 76ers have dominated this series of late with nine straight wins. Playing at home, you have to back them to make it 10 straight triumphs as they take care of business. |
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02-02-24 | Hornets v. Thunder -15.5 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC's most glaring flaw on both ends of the floor is rebounding. The defense also tends to send opponents to the free throw line. The Hornets are a subpar rebounding team and the worst team at getting to the free throw line. They aren't equipped to take advantage of the Thunder's weaknesses. That is why this game should be a blowout, especially since it's in Paycom Center where OKC is a much better squad. The Thunder are 18-6 (16-8-0 ATS) at home. That, paired with all of the other clear edges, won't make for a competitive game. Take OKC to cover the spread. |
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02-02-24 | Suns -150 v. Hawks | 120-129 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come in with win streaks going for them but the fact remains that one team is solidly in the playoff picture while the other is hanging on for dear life. The Suns, when they are healthy, have a dangerous unit led by the trio of Durant, Booker and Beal, though that’s been a challenge this season. Atlanta is in a dicey situation as it’s unclear as to whether the team will be a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. The Hawks have not been great at home this season, posting a 10-13 mark entering this game. Atlanta has a little bit of a rest advantage at this point but the Suns are the better team. Look for Phoenix to take care of business here as they take advantage of an unimpressive Atlanta squad to put this game in the win column. |
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01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +1.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns are 16-27-2 against the spread as they come into this game. Likewise, they are 9-10-1 against the spread on the road. The Suns are just 8-16-1 against the spread when they have equal rest. Moreover, they are 3-9-2 against the spread against nonconference teams. While The Magic are 28-17 against the spread. Additionally, they are 13-7 against the spread at Amway Arena. The Magic are 17-4 against the spread when they have had equal rest. Also, they are 9-6 against the spread against nonconference teams. The Magic are almost finally healthy again with Wagner back. Therefore, they can play to their full potential. Banchero is their best player. Currently, he is averaging 22.5 points per game while shooting 45 percent from the field. Wagner is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field. Thus, he will be a focal part of the team. |
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01-27-24 | Lakers +1.5 v. Warriors | 145-144 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers have won four of their last six games. They have been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring more than 130 points per game in their last three games while making over 54 percent of their shots and 46 percent of their three-pointers. They’ve done a good job rebounding the ball and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Warriors have struggled defensively this season and they gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Lakers in this game. The Warriors have lost three of their last four games and four of their last six home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 117 points per game at home. Their rebounding has been good and it will keep them in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball, which will give the Lakers, who averaged more than nine steals per game in their last three games, easy-scoring opportunities. The Lakers aren’t great defensively, but they’ve done a better job in recent games and will keep Golden State’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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01-27-24 | Rockets v. Nets -175 | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here, which has been a tough spot for them this season. The Rockets entered Friday losers of five of their previous six and they have gone just 4-15 on the road entering the game with the Hornets. Brooklyn has dropped three straight and seven of their last eight games coming into this one. The Nets do have the rest advantage, having played Thursday at home before having Friday off, while Houston had to play Friday and then fly in after the game against Charlotte. Even with a young team like Houston, that can take a toll on you. The Rockets have been grounded on the road and in the second game of a back-to-back set, you can’t have a ton of enthusiasm about them here. Lean toward the Nets in this contest. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The fact that the Nuggets struggle mightily in this series is an influencer, too, given their naughty 6-20-1 ATS mark. And yes, the gold-diggers return home off their worst loss of the season in a 122-84 beatdown at the Knicks, yet they are a paltry 2-5 ATS as home chalk of more than 4 points when coming off a 5-plus road trip. On the other side of the court, Philly has won six of its last seven games and is 8-2 ATS against greater than .600 foes this season, as well as a stellar 15-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS this campaign when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. Finally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in this series with revenge from a single-digit same-season loss. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One weird thing about Memphis this season is that they're worse at home. The Grizzlies have a 4-15 record (5-14-0 ATS) in FedEx Forum. Although their recent road wins were nice, fading them on their home court is the smart play. Especially since Orlando does everything that the Grizzlies do better. The Magic rely on their defense, which is stronger, and have a struggling offense that outperforms Memphis'. Orlando will earn a much-needed win, covering the spread in the process. |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors catch the Clippers in an ideal scheduling spot tonight, and they’ll be happy to oblige. For openers, the Clips arrive off a monster double revenge showdown at home against the Lakers on Tuesday, with yet another same-reason avenger on tap at Boston tomorrow from a 37-point home loss they suffered against the Celtics two days prior to Christmas. Hence, it’s no surprise to learn they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in post-Laker operatives, while just 18-26 SU and 18-24 ATS away before Beantown bashes. With the Dinosaurs 16-8-1 ATS as a host in this series, including 5-1 ATS when taking points, we’re all over this. |