Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After booing injured QB Andy Dalton at home last week, it’s a good thing the Bears are playing in Cleveland this week. The fans sounded Eagles-esque. With Dalton on the mend with a bruised knee, it appears that Justin Fields is in line to make his first NFL start. Chicago’s 3-9-1 ATS record as road dogs of 6 or more points is likely to come into play, as is Cleveland’s 4-0 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Play on an NFL home dog of 7 or more points who own a .500 or greater record, if they are facing an undefeated foe. These disrespected puppies that refuse to throw in the towel are 30-9-1 ATS since 1980 in this role. Couple Carolina’s 0-6 ATS log on Thursdays with Houston’s 8-2 SUATS all-time mark at home against visitors from the NFC South, and you have the ATS winner. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 104 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Baltimore QB, Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, including 15-6 at home. With it, he’s been a home dog only once back in 2019 when he took 3 points from New England and beat the snot out of Tom Brady and the Patriots, 37-20. And then there is Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, who brings a lofty 19-4 SU and 15-8 ATS career record at home during the month of September. To top it off, consider, that defending NFL Super Bowl loser as an away pick or favorite vs. a non-division opponent that won 9 or more games last season is 1-12-1 ATS since 1990. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Prescott is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. In addition, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as non-conference road dogs. The Chargers completed an uncanny 14 of 19 third downs in last week’s win over Washington. We don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Not with the Bolts sporting a 6-10 SU and 3-12-1 ATS record when favored in games before taking on division rival Kansas City. In addition, NFL teams coming off a SU loss and ATS win on Thursday are 15-7 ATS away since 1986, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win |
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09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in games before facing the Rams and 2-8 ATS after taking on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Atlanta invades off a deeply disappointing 32-6 home loss to the Eagles in new head coach Arthur Smith’s debut. NFL head coaches, coming off a season-opening loss of 20 or more points are 12-7 ATS the following game, including 9-3 ATS away. With the Dirty Birds sporting an 11-1 ATS record in Game Twos, we’ll join the Super Bowl Champ fade-train today. |
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09-19-21 | Rams v. Colts +4 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford’s, has a 10-15-1 ATS record as a road favorite in the NFL, including 2-9 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit loss – with a 0-4 ATS mixer added in when Stafford is coming off a win in its last game. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 17-8-1 ATS in his NFL career as a head coach against foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3.5 v. Dolphins | 35-0 | Win | 102 | 97 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the Dolphins’ takedown of once-mighty New England, QB Tagovailoa went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He nearly had a second pick, but a Patriot defender dropped the pass. Miami is also famous for post-Patriot letdowns, just 2-11 ATS since 2013, including 0-5 ATS when coming off a win over New England. |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giants QB, Jones is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington, and his OC Jason Garrett was 14-5 against Washington while with the Cowboys, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Consider also that New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight division road games while Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as division home chalk |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 103 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Chicago will be starting Andy Dalton, who brings a 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS record into this game in his last twenty-five starts. With it, the Bears lug along a 1-7 ATS mark as dogs of 5 or more points and an 8-18 ATS dog log under the Sunday Night lights. On the home front, there’s a reason that head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were comfortable trading multiple first round picks for 33-year-old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, with one career Pro Bowl. The former fi rst pick in the 2009 draft, he gives them a missing ingredient and a key factor that nearly every Super Bowl winning team possesses – a top-flight quarterback. His career Passer Rating actually ranks higher than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, all Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QBs. Given the hard-heads’ 4-0 SUATS record in season openers under McVay and the host team going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, consider also that NFL away teams in their first game of the season who made the playoff the previous season with 9 or fewer wins are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2001. |
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09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints +4.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For what it’s worth, Winston is 28-42 SU and 30-36-4 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 12-21-3 ATS at home and 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite. However, he is 15-9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. With that, the Saints are 43-23-3 ATS as dogs under Sean Payton, including 9-2-1 ATS at home as well as 25-9-3 when seeking revenge (New Orleans lost 37-30 as a 3.5-point favorite to Green Bay in September last year). Additionally, the Saints are 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or fewer points. |
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09-12-21 | Eagles v. Falcons -3 | 32-6 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Falcons have endured three straight non-winning seasons fi ve times since 1990. They bounced back with winning efforts every year, making to the postseason all five times! The bad news for Philly is the Eagles allowed a league-worst 65 sacks in 2020. The good news is Philadelphia will face the league’s softest strength of schedule versus foes who were a combined .430 last season. The Falcons’ luckless 1-8 mark in one-score games, including four in their first five games (all losses), sealed Atlanta’s fate last season. Nevertheless, they were not as bad as their 4-12 record indicated. With Matty Ice now 11-2 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons, and Philly a puzzling 1-12 ATS in domed that last five years, we’ll side with the home team. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +9.5 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since 1980 teams who won a Super Bowl as an underdog are 84-102-5 ATS as a favorite the following season, including 50-80-4 ATS versus foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. Also, last year’s champs are just 12-24-1 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points during the first two games of the season. With the Bucs being weighed down by their overdone Super Bowl rings and just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home, look for the Brady bunch to fall to 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven NFC East skirmishes tonight. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is two weeks between the championship games and Super Bowl this year. Kansas City is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in the postseason since 2018. No team has compiled a better record the past three seasons than the Chiefs, who are 44-11 during this span. Maybe the Chiefs got back on track with their impressive title-game victory versus the Bills. Maybe. Until that performance, Kansas City was 1-8 ATS in its last nine games with the lone cover occurring by half a point against the Saints. Yes, the Chiefs were being overpriced by the oddsmaker and probably overvalued in the marketplace. Still, both their offense and defense had declined from their performance during the first half of the season when they covered six of their first eight games, while outscoring foes by an average of 31.6 points to 19 points. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, definitely are in peak form with Brady fully in sync with Bruce Arians and his new offense. Brady has never had these many outstanding receivers at his disposal. He can match Mahomes plus he has the huge advantage of being backed by the superior defense. Also consider that Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. |