Rating: 3 Units

John Harbaugh, is looking to avenge a 17-10 home loss to Andy Reid in the AFC Championship Game last season while sporting a 30-15-4 ATS record as a dog of three or fewer points, including 10-2 ATS on the road with revenge. Look for KC’s 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS mark as small regular season home chalk of four or fewer points to come into play tonight. Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson’s is 4-1 SUATS in season openers and finally, Jackson is 11-4 SU and 13-1-1 ATS in his career as a regular season ‘pick’ or dog in the NFL.

Rating: 3 Units

Consider that following:  Teams arriving to a Super Bowl game off a point spread loss are 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS since 1980. Those coming in off an SU win as an underdog in the Championship Round are 19-7-1 ATS. As well as all this Super Bowl history with these awesome stats: Super Bowl favorites of 5 or fewer points in ‘double rest’ affairs – a week of rest before their first playoff game and a week of rest before the big game – are 5-12 SU and 4-14 ATS (San Francisco), No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl are 15-19 SU and 12-20-2 ATS since 1990, including 7-11 SU and 4-12-2 ATS versus non-No.1 seeds. (San Francisco), Teams who fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 2-25 SU and 4-22-1 ATS since 1980. Teams that score 27 or more points in the Super Bowl are 31-5 SU and 28-7-1 ATS since 1980, and the SU winner of the Super Bowl game is 48-7-2 ATS. Pick the winner of the game, and you’ll likely have a winning ticket. We're on the Chiefs.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL playoff dogs with the better win percentage (Lions) are 31-21-2 ATS since 1980 – but only 6-22 SU and 11-15-2 ATS when taking more than three points, featuring 0-15 SU and 3-11-1 ATS since 1996. On the other side of the field, the 49ers’ trip to the NFC title game will mark their 19th since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. That number is a record, and it’s four more than the next closest team in the NFC. It is also San Francisco’s third straight trip to the NFC title game and fourth in the past five seasons. Today’s win would give them an NFL-best 38th postseason win, one more than the Patriots and the Packers. For now, Frisco is 24-6 SU and 21-9 ATS from Game Ten out the past three seasons, while NFC No. 1 seeds in the championship round arriving off a win-no-cover are 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. And don’t forget that 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan is now 5-0 at home in the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

In four career stats against the Ravens Mahomes stats are: 98 for 139, 1,253 yards, 12 TDs, and 2 INTs. All of which is good for a prodigious 122.1 Quarterback Rating. Not to mention Mahomes’ 9-3 SU and 12-1 ATS dog log in his NFL career. . The AFC Championship will be Patrick Mahomes’ 17th playoff game. With it, he has almost an entire regular season’s worth of experience. At 28, he has played in nearly as many playoff games (16) as Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy combined (17). He is also 13-3 in his postseason career, including 4-0 SUATS versus .777 or greater foes and 4-0 SUATS against teams with an equal or better record. Meanwhile, Jackson is 1-3 SU in his career against the Chiefs and 0-3 SUATS in the postseason, coming off a win of 24 or fewer points. And then there is Andy Reid and his 3-0 SUATS record in head-to-head games with John Harbaugh when Kansas City enters off a pair of outright wins, scoring 33-plus points in each contest.

Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Interestingly, of the eight teams arriving in this round of the playoffs, four of them rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Bills and the Chiefs are two of them. It’s our educated guess that two of the four defensively staunch squads will be meeting in Super Bowl LVIII, with the Chiefs looking to repeat. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen – both wins coming at Arrowhead – but this will mark the first road playoff game in his career. So, how will he and the Chiefs respond against the hottest team in the league? That’s the question. What we know for sure is the Mahomes is also 11-1 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, winning eight of the games outright. Head coach Andy Reid has a 7-4 ATS career mark as a playoff dog, and a 9-4 SUATS career mark in postseason games between the 3s (+3 to -3). The points are tempting for a team that owns the best ‘In the Stats’ record (13-4) at this stage of the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions scored TDs on all three of its visits to the Red Zone last Sunday, while all three of the Rams’ trips to the Red Zone resulted in field goals. In the process, QB Jared Goff set a Detroit record for completion percentage in a game. Meanwhile, the Bucs jumped all over a deflated Philadelphia squad that flatlined, going 0-for-11 on 3rd and 4th down conversions to finish the season 1-6 following a scintillating 10-1 start. In the meantime, Tampa finished its campaign on a roll, currently riding a 6-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) skein. Between the Lions likely partying like it was 1999, and the surging Bucs on a free roll and playing with house money, look for Divisional Round dogs off back-to-back wins to improve to 6-1 ATS of late.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 35-38 ATS overall. Worse, if these same teams won 5 or fewer games the previous season, they fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Enter the team favored to win this year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers. With it, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan brings a 4-0 ATS career mark into this contest as a playoff favorite by an average win margin of 15 points per game. In addition, the Niners are winning the stats on an average of 95 net yards per game this season, tops in the league. And it certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that San Francisco is 21-3 SU and 19-5 ATS since last season in games where they won the yardage battle. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in the playoffs when coming off consecutive SUATS wins – with the last as a dog. 

Rating: 2 Units

Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 25-38 ATS overall. Worse, these same teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Divisional Round hosts with a week of rest coming off a loss are 13-1 outright but only 1-8 ATS the last nine games. We temper that with John Harbaugh’s 9-3 ATS ledger in his last dozen playoff games. And don’t forget the Black Birds’ 3-0 SUATS mark this season in games when coming off a loss by an average score of 29-13. After being bounced in the first round of the playoffs in three of its previous four appearances, look for Harbaugh to improve on his 35-5-2 ATS career mark in games the Ravens win outright as a favorite against winning foes. Finally, playing against any NFL Divisional Round away team coming off a SU home underdog win of 5 or more points if they won 5 or fewer games last season is 10-1 ATS.

Wild Card Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the only career road playoff game for QB Jalen Hurts was two years ago in a loss to Tampa Bay, where the Eagles return to the scene of the crime. In his career playoff starts, Hurts owns a 2-2 record, with 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Lately, though, he’s been a similar mess with an 82.9 QB Rating the past four games while tossing 4 TDs and 5 INTS. And that’s critical, considering that the average turnover during the regular season is worth 4.3 points. In the playoffs, it jumps to 4.7 points. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield’s career was on life support in 2022 before his bounce-back season with the Bucs. The former No. 1 pick struggled down the stretch, but he had his best statistical season to help Tampa Bay claim the NFC South title for a third straight year. Given the success of home dogs in the Wild Card round and the fact that playing on any NFL home dog in the Wild Card Round if they are playing with same-season revenge is 9-1 ATS, so we’ll take whatever they offer up

Rating: 2 Units

Allen is among the NFL’s most prolific quarterbacks when he’s rolling, as he sports a 105.6 QB Rating in the streak. He also owns 17 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, a 99.6 passer rating, and 2 rushing TDs in the post season. Pittsburgh counters with mighty Mason Rudolph, whose 3-0 SUATS mark as a starter to end the season pushed his NFL career record to 8-4-1 SU and 8-3-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off back-to-back wins. This will mark Rudolph’s postseason debut. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin enters 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS away in the playoffs. He’s also 0-3 ATS away in Game One of playoffs. Superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt led the league in sacks for the third time with 19 sacks, the most in NFL history, but he’s out with an injury he suffered in the season finale. That’s not good news, considering the Steelers are 69-33-2 with Watt; 1-10 without him. 

Rating: 2 Units

Dan Campbell is a candidate for Coach of the Year, he is an excellent motivator and his team plays hard for him, but in a playoff spot I'll take the coach who is better at creating a gameplan. The Lions were favored to win the NFC North, they did exactly what was expected of them, while the Rams were left for dead and significantly overachieved. Sean McVay will have an offensive attack that the Lions will not be prepared for. McVay turned Kyren Williams into one of the best running backs in the league, and made Puka Nacua look like he should have been a top 20 pick instead of a fifth-rounder. The Lions are 27th in the NFL in passing defense, while the Rams are 10th in passing yards per game. Stafford will not disappoint in his return to Detroit, and will cut up this Lions' pass defense with Nacua and Kupp. The Rams' passing defense is stronger than Detroit's, as they rank 20th in passing defense and will have the better chances to get stops. The Lions like their dome, but they do not have the strongest home field advantage, they lost to the Seahawks and Packers at home this season. In the Playoffs, games can be decided by the slimmest of margins, and I will take the coaching advantage, and the Rams' passing attack against the weak Lions' secondary as the key difference makers.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s put up or shut up time for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys today. That’s because in six career playoff starts, he enters with a 2-4 record, including the last two seasons which ended in heartbreaking playoff losses against the 49ers. Don’t expect a walk in the park today, either. Not from a team that was 2-5 ATS against fellow playoff teams this season, while being outgained an average -23 net yards per game along the way. It all adds up to a 4-12 SUATS ledger in the playoffs for Dallas since 1997. To get over the hurdle, the ‘Boys will have to overcome a Green Bay squad on a roll, playing its best football of the season behind QB Jordan Love in his first year at the helm as the team improved as the season wore on. In fact, over the final eight games of the campaign Love posted an 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With it, the Packers check in 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the playoffs when entering with a sub .700-win percentage. Tie it into Green Bay’s 4-0 SUATS record of late in this series, while also playing with a major chip on its shoulder after not having a player on the roster voted to the Pro Bowl squad.

Rating: 2 Units

This will mark QB Tua Tagovailoa’s playoff debut (backup QB Skylar Thompson was behind center for injured Tua in last year’s 34-31 playoff loss here last season). Complicating matters, 20 players appeared on Miami’s initial injury report, forcing them to sign five players to fill out the roster. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had problems of their own against other playoff squads this season, going 1-4 SUATS. However, we note that NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 21-8 SU and 16-12-1 ATS at home the following playoff season, including 2-0 SUATS against foes arriving off a loss by an average score of 35-15. Ironically, both squads rank in the Top 10 on offense and defense and each is a league-best 13-5 ‘In The Stats’ this season.  

Rating: 2 Units

Browns’ QB Joe Flacco enters this game with a 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS career mark in the NFL postseason, including 9-3 ATS away and 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in initial playoff contests. Meanwhile, Cleveland joins the 1984 Chicago Bears as the only team to reach the playoffs with five different starting QBs. We don’t see the league’s top-ranked defense falling to a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. Not when QBs making their first start in the playoffs are just 20-43 ATS (31.7%) since ’03. Additionally, Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefankski, is 10-0 outright against the AFC South in his career.

Rating: 3 Units

For openers, it’s appearing more and more that QB Justin Fields will be the Bears’ quarterback of the future. Over the past nine starts, Fields owns an 87.5 QB Rating with 1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and 5 INTs, not to mention 521 rushing yards, which is attributed to Chicago’s No. 2 Ranked Rush Offense (trailing only the Ravens) in the last three games. The Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been reduced to 1-3 ATS as a favorite since Aaron Rodgers bolted for the Big Apple. Finally, Green Bay is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season finales for the last six years.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Rams will be handing the ball to Carson Wentz, who at first glance is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last ten starts. But he is also 7-5 SUATS in his career with teams riding a three game win streak, including 3-0 SUATS in division games. The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road dog, as well as 5-1 ATS in its last six division road contests. Flipping the script, the Niners enter with nothing to gain as they have the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs and figure to be resting starters for an extended period of time, with star RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Brock Purdy already nailed to the pines and QB Sam Darnold slated to start. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog with triple revenge is 48-24-2 ATS since 1981 Better yet, bring them in off a win and they improve to 35-13-2, while going 19-5-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 ATS since 1998.

Rating: 2 Units

The bottom line here is the heat is on the Jags, and to their detriment they are 2-17 SU and 7-12 ATS away in their final game of the season in their franchise history, including 0-11 SU in games with the Over/Under total of fewer than 43 points. It doesn’t help with the fact that Tennessee is playing with a triple revenge chip on their shoulder, especially given Tennessee’s 4-1 SUATS record in its last five games in this role. In addition, the Titans are 6-1 ATS when coming off a division road contest. Finally, Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS on the road against .400 or fewer foes, we call for the upset! 

Rating: 2 Units

Lions head coach Dan Campbell announced he will be playing QB Jared Goff and his starters in this contest. That likely tells you all you need to know here, especially with Detroit, the dominant team in this series at 6-0 SUATS, as well as 8-2 ATS in its last ten division home games. Meanwhile, Minnesota arrives alive in the playoff chase needing a win here and losses by Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay – or – a win and losses by the Packers, the Seahawks, and the Saints. You likely have a better chance of buying a Power Ball ticket. That being said, look for highly pissed-off Lions to improve to 5-0 ATS in last home games today.

Rating: 2 Units

With rumors swirling about Bill Belichick’s imminent departure, albeit via retirement or via a trade. With the mindset in place and the Jets in a deep decline at 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, we’d be stunned if this game is not dedicated to The Hoodie. Making matters worse for the Jets, they fly into Foxborough with a 1-5 SUATS record in season finales the last six years, as well a 1-7 SUATS record in road finales. And we didn’t even mention a 1-8 ATS mark in games when coming off a Thursday performance or a 2-9 ATS log in their last eleven games on the division road. With the Pats having beat the Jets like a drum in each of their last 15 meetings in this series, we are going with what could be the Hoodies last game in New England here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts who just 2-7 ITS (In The Stats) in its last nine games. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven division road games and 5-0 ATS when coming off a division road game. Toss in a 4-0 ATS log when coming off a win of 14-plus points, and there is only one way to look in this pivotal AFC South scrape, especially with the Colt’s horrid 3-17-1 ATS record in their last home games when they have an equal or greater win percentage.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore is 6-2 outright against the eight teams seeded No. 1-7 in the current NFL playoff picture, winning the games with a +125-point differential. In fact, their only two losses were by 2 points against Cleveland and 3 points in an overtime loss to Indianapolis. The Steelers can make the playoffs with a win today and a loss by either Buffalo or Jacksonville, along with four other Wild Card possibilities. However, Baltimore’s 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS ledger at home in games coming off a win of 35-plus points – including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS versus sub .600 foes – Finally, Baltimore is 12-3 SU and 13-1-1 ATS as a home dog in this series when the Steelers sport a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota is just 1-4 in its last five games, but to their credit, the four losses have come by a total of 12 points, and they won the stats in four of the five contests, and the Vikings also beat the Packers, 24-10, in Green Bay two months ago. However, with the Packers 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a division road dog, and 4-0 ATS when coming off a road win. They are also 23-12-1 ATS in their last 36 Sunday Night contests, including 11-2-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. Minnesota’s 2-8 ATS mark in its last ten home games seals it. 

Rating: 3 Units

If the Saints lose either of their last two contests, they will be officially eliminated from postseason contention. There is no other scenario where New Orleans can win their division. In addition, under head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints also have an ugly 1-13 record against teams that are .500 or better at the time they play them. However, they will enter today’s game mathematically alive in the NFC South with a 5-0 ATS record when seeking triple revenge. On the flip side, the Bucs are 0-9 ATS in games before facing the Panthers, as well as 0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. Finally, playing on  any sub .500 NFL road dog off a SUATS non-division loss if they are playing with triple revenge against a division opponent is 21-4 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s safe to say that QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown pulled the Eagles out of a rut in last week’s disapproving 33-25 win over the stubborn New York Giants. But at this stage of the season, it was a badly needed victory as it stopped the bleeding and kept Philly in the chase for the top spot in the NFC playoff seeding. Today, though, they’ll need to improve off a lousy 1-5 ATS mark of late against the NFC West and an 0-4 ATS current ATS losing record. With it, the Cardinals enter 10-0 ATS of late against the NFC East, as well as 8-1 ATS of late in this series. Until the Green Birds get their act back together, they are simply too risky to be laying double digits in a NY Giants division sandwich. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Jags are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games against NFC opposition, as well as 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points. And we didn’t even mention Jack’s 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS mark as home chalk the past six seasons. Carolina enters with a 10-4 ATS ledger in its last fourteen games against the AFC South, as well as a 3-0 SUATS mark in this series. The Panthers sport the league’s No. 5 overall defense, as opposed to Jacksonville’s No. 25 overall defense, the points become the play in this overlay – especially with the fact that playing against any NFL home favorite who went from ‘worst to first’ in its division from one season to the next is 33-15 ATS.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore is just 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS laying points in its last 14 games when coming off a win as an underdog – including 1-9 ATS against foes with at least one win on the season and 0-8 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. That fits like a glove for the Dolphins and their 16-4 ATS mark as a non-division road dog of 5 or fewer points. With Miami 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite, we’ll be on the take today. Finally, Baltimore is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite behind Lamar Jackson when coming off a SU underdog win.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cowboys currently sit one game behind both the Eagles and Lions and are looking to crash the party. They are also riding a 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS run at Jerry’s World, including a 5-0 ATS log when coming off a loss. Detroit enters 1-5 ATS away when coming off an away game, while the ‘Boys are 5-1 ATS against the NFC North. Better yet, the Cowboys are 12-6 ATS since 1990 at home in Last Home Games against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with a .600 or greater win percentage. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 SUATS as a favorite in games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win

Rating: 2 Units

The Browns signed Riley Patterson, who was waived by the Detroit Lions on Dec. 19. For the Lions this year Patterson was 15-for-17 in fi eld goal attempts and 35-for-37 on extra point attempts. Jets’ signal caller Trevor Siemian became the 59th different quarterback to start a game this season when he led the Jets to a 30-28 victory over Washington despite a jaw dropping 14 penalties for 150 yards by the Flyboys. Given the Jets 0-5 ATS mark on Thursdays, and 3-9 ATS effort after hosting NFC foes, plus their 5-11 SUATS mark in games when coming off a win under Robert Saleh – along with Cleveland’s 6-1 ATS mark at home on Thursdays and its recent 5-0 SUATS mark in the Dawg Pound since their Bye week this season – we’ll be on the Browns tonight.

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS away on Mondays, including 4-0-1 ATS as a dog. Better yet, star QB Lamar Jackson is 18-1 SU in his career against NFC opposition. The Black Birds are also 11-2 ATS against .700 or great foes. And speaking of superstars, for the 37th time in his NFL career, Jackson led his team in both rushing and passing yards in the same game in last week’s 23-7 win versus Jacksonville. On the other side of the coin, Niners’ RB Christian McCaffrey is the only NFL player all-time with 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season – and he still has three games to go. Like Baltimore, San Francisco is 7-1 ATS against .700 or better opponents. Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh brings an exceptional 80-53-9 ATS career mark as a visitor, while 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home in his career when the Niners sport a .750 or greater win percentage. In a battle of the league’s best, we’ll grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Chiefs are one of only five teams in the league that sport both a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense, which should not have a problem against Las Vegas’ 28th-ranked offense. We realize they are only 0-3 ATS coming off their previous three wins this season, and the Raiders are the second foe in a row that will take on the Chiefs with a rest advantage, but when coming off a win of late Andy Reid is 15-1 SU in his last sixteen division games when coming off one win and 71-28 ATS in games he wins outright as a favorite against foes arriving off a win. Finally NFL teams 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS since 1989 in games after scoring 60-plus points in their last game.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

While Miami is currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture, they can claim the top-seed should it win out - and it would certainly deserve so, having to go up against the likes of the Cowboys here, and the Ravens and Bills to conclude the campaign. Fortunately, they are 9-2 SUATS at home coming off a home game as a favorite after dressing up as a favorite the previous game, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by seven or more points. Meanwhile, Dallas has a -4 point differential on the road in 2023 (14th in the NFL) while leading the league with a +171 point differential at home in 2023 – and that’s with a 40-point road win in its season opener at the Giants. Finally, NFL home favorites coming off a home shutout win are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2000 against an opponent coming off an away game, including 7-0 SUATS if they sport a sub .750 win percentage

Rating: 2 Units

Carolina is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS lately when coming off a win. They are also 1-4 ATS against the NFC North. The Packers enter this fray as the No. 11 overall seed in the current NFC Playoff Picture and should be fully focused here. With head coach Matt LaFleur 16-9 ATS in his career when coming off a loss, including 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS from game Eight out.

Rating: 2 Units

The Texans are banged up, with DE Will Anderson (ankle) and QB CJ Stroud (concussion) among the questionable players listed on the team's lengthy injury report. If you're wondering why the Browns are favored on the road, Stroud's likely absence is the reason. Veteran QB Case Keenum led Houston to a 19-16 victory last weekend but had fewer than 200 passing yards in regulation, averaging just 5.4 yards per passing attempt against a poor Titans pass defense. The Browns' defense has been the catalyst to the team's success this season, but the unit has not performed well on the road, surrendering an NFL-worst 30.7 PPG compared to just 13.1 PPG at home. That figures to change, though, as Cleveland's defense is too talented to struggle so much on the road. Keenum is in for a challenge against the league's best pass defense, as Cleveland's pass rush is also intimidating (7th-most sacks). The Texans are banged up on the offensive line and at receiver, with Tank Dell out and Nico Collins and Noah Brown limited in practice.

Rating: 2 Units

The Washington Commanders continue to stumble, losing four consecutive games. The offense is now struggling which makes winning games a daunting task considering the horrible defense. The Jets haven’t been any better but are at home and have the superior defense. Washington has lost confidence in QB Sam Howell and gave Jacoby Brissett playing time last week. Whether it’s Howell or Brisset at QB, it won’t matter. The Jets have a stifling pass defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Commanders could be without #1 RB Brian Robinson Jr. who did not practice this week due to a hamstring injury. I expect the Jets to have some success offensively against a Commanders' defense that has surrendered at least 45 points in two of their last three games.

Rating: 2 Units

The team that can least likely afford a loss is the 7-7 Vikings, as no less than four other seven-win teams are in pursuit. Much like the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota is operating on their fourth starting quarterback this season – yet they still remain in playoff contention. A tip of the hat to head coach Kevin O’Connell as it’s been a nice year for the coaching Kevin’s this campaign. With Minnesota sporting a 6-0 ATS log as division home dogs, as well as 13-2 ATS as a dog off a loss when facing a foe coming off a win as a favorite, the points become the play in this division fray today.

Rating: 3 Units

The pressure mounts on a Seahawks’ squad that has now been outgained in each of their last four games as they bring along a phony sense of accomplishment. Given Seattle’s 0-5 outright record in road games this season since its Bye Week, and Tennessee’s 6-1 ATS mark in this series, look for the Titans to improve on its 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home off a loss under Mike Vrabel, including 4-0 SUATS this season. And look for Seattle to get a taste of reality today, especially with Ryan Tannehill rumored to be behind center for the Titans today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills have won two straight games and three of their last four overall. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least 30 points in three of those games. They have a balanced offense and they’re in the top 10 in passing and running the ball. James Cook has been playing out of his mind right now and with Allen's ability to run, the Bills are tough to stop. The Chargers aren’t very good at defending the run and their pass defense is the third-worst in the league, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bills in this game. The Chargers have lost two straight games and three straight home games. They have struggled offensively and didn’t score more than 20 points in four of their last five games. They don’t run the ball well, but they have the 10th-best passing attack in the league. With Justin Herbert out and Easton Stick under center, their passing game hasn’t been as good. The Bills have played well against the run and they held their last three opponents under 200 passing yards per game. They are one of the best in the league when it comes to getting after the quarterback and they force a lot of turnovers, so expect them to keep Los Angeles’ offense in check. Go with Buffalo to cover the spread.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And finally, Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog

Rating: 3 Units

Saints mentor Dennis Allen is 6-15 SU and 4-15-2 ATS in games when his team is coming off a win, including 1-7-1 ATS coming off a double-digit win. On the other side of the field, L.A.’s Sean McVay has taken care of business in games against NFC South foes, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. The home team in this series, is a stellar 8-0 SUATS, and Allen is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in his career in games when coming off consecutive ATS wins. Finally, any NFL away teams from Game 15 out, coming off three consecutive home games – the last two outright wins – are 7-21 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS as a dog of 4-plus points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles have been out yarded in each of their last six games by an average -105 net yards per game. It makes it extremely hard to wrap your arms around them at this point, let alone have to do so after taking on Murder’s Row – the Cowboys, 49ers, Bills, and Chiefs – in their last four games. They are 0-8 ATS when coming off a double-digit SUATS loss and 1-6 ATS in this series. With the Seahawks’ backs to the playoff wall as the current No. 9 seed in the NFC, we strongly suggest you look at the fact that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser as an away favorite (or pick) in non-division games is 45-65--5 ATS since 1981. Worse, if they take the field sporting a .700 or greater win percentage they fall to 10-26-3 ATS, including 6-20-2-2 ATS when squaring off against .333 or greater opponents.  Additionally, Seattle is 16-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Ravens have a 10-3 record and currently hold down the top seed in the AFC playoff race. But we’ve seen this before, every time the MVP chatter gets louder, Jackson loses his voice (and votes). With it, Baltimore enters this Prime-Time special just 1-7 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. The Ravens also have a much bigger game on tap when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night. Meanwhile, the Jags will take the field knowing they are 6-2 SUATS in their last eight home dog roles, while head coach Doug Pederson is 15-9 ATS in his career as a dog against .750 or greater foes, including 6-2 ATS at home.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

QB Josh Allen is 15-2 SU in his last seventeen regular season games the past two years. The Bills are on a major 33-1 winning run in games in which they win the turnover battle – with the only loss coming in overtime at Philadelphia this season. And you can toss in Dallas’ 0-4 SUATS in its last four games as a road dog. Finally, Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS against NFC East opponents coming off back-to-back wins.

Rating; 2 Units

A huge game for the suddenly hot Rams (3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS since their Bye week), with little on the line for the visiting Commandeers, who are coming off their Bye week on a 0-3 SUATS losing skid. Normally, we’d start making cases for the “value” in a matchup like this but not today. Not with Washington a wimpy 3-12 ATS when coming off a Bye week, and the Rams riding a 14-4 winning ATS run in December since 2021. Tie it into Sean McVay’s 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS mark as a favorite of late against teams he polished off in a most recent meeting, and you know where we’ll be. 

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Niners are off a fifth consecutive win following the Bye with a potential Super Bowl pairing up next week when they host the rugged Ravens. They enter 0-4 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 2012 and 7-12 SUATS of late in this series. Meanwhile, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS as a favorite in this series when Arizona sports a sub .250-win percentage. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS as a home dog of +9 or more points when hosting .750 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

The Chiefs are 5-0 SUATS when coming off a home loss, while head coach Andy Reid stands 25-15 ATS in his career after a pair of setbacks, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. On the other side of the fi eld, the Hoodie is 16-9 ATS at home when coming off a SU underdog win - but 0-3 SUATS the last three games. With one team fighting for playoff positioning, and the other a bad team off a surprise win, lay it.

Rating; 2 Units

The Injury Reaper can’t let go of the Browns, who cling to the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoff Picture. They currently hold a 12 percent chance of winning the division over the Baltimore Ravens as they would need to go 3-1 to end the season while the Ravens go 1-3. While that seems unlikely, they have a game advantage over the rest of the AFC Wild Card candidates. Their current savior is veteran QB Joe Flacco, who was picked up off the junk heap as QB4, who is only 4-18 SU in his last 22 NFL starts – but 1-1 with Cleveland. He’s also 9-5 ATS in his career against the NFC North. The good news for the Browns is their 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS record under Kevin Stefanski against NFC opposition, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as favorites of more than three points. With Da Bears riding a 1-9 SUATS skein in games when coming off a double digit ATS win, give the points.

Rating; 2 Units

Denver is now 7-6 and on the come, while Kansas City is 8-5 and sliding backward. With it, the Broncos’ squad has allowed just 16 points per game over the last eight. Which means the AFC West has tightened up. Flipping the script, Detroit is looking more and more like Kansas City of late, as the Lions have dropped two of their last three contests and are having difficulty retaining momentum as they opened the door for the Vikings and Packers. Given the Wild Horses’ 3-0-1 ATS log on the road off a road contest, we’re looking to continue riding the team that is hot against the one that is not. Finally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back underdog roles.

Rating: 3 Units

Defensive stud TJ Watt has been cleared from concussion protocol. How much does it matter, you ask? Plenty, considering the Steelers are 1-10 in games without the sack-master. Remember, the Burghers are 8-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss, and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Colts are 2-17 SU in this series since 1985 – including 0-3 SUATS the last three times they saddled up as chalk.

Rating: 2 Units

It really is insane that Jamar Chase & Justin Jefferson were on the same college team, w/ Joe Burrow as their QB. My goodness. Bengals haven't missed a beat w/ Jake Browning under center (BB games scoring 30+ pts) as Cincinnati continues to own the month of December. They are 7-2 outside the AFC North TY (0-4 vs division). Vikings won the lowest scoring gm since '07. That one was played in a blizzard while this was played in perfect conditions in Allegiant Stadium.

Rating: 3 Units

Packers enter just 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur against opponents coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-5 ATS versus sub .500 foes. They are also a non-division favorite coming off three uninterrupted underdog upset wins in a row, a role in which teams in the NFL are just 6-20-2 ATS since 1980. With that, and despite the fact they are averaging just 231 YPG in their last five contests, we expect Big Blue to rise to the occasion tonight. The G-Men take the field this evening sporting an 11-4 ATS record on Monday Nights in games where they sport a .333 or fewer win percentage when battling .500 or fewer opponents, including 8-0 ATS in anything other than a season-opening game. And while Jordan Love is enduring himself to Packer backers, New York fill-in QB Tommy Devito has become the first undrafted QB in rookie season to have back-to-back QB Rating of 100 or more. He’s also one of only two NFL backup QBs this season with a winning record (Gardner Minshew). Best of all, playing against any NFL team coming off three consecutive outright underdog wins if they are facing a non-division foe is 20-6-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami brings along a glossy 6-0 ATS mark in matchups in which the Fish were favored in their last game against foes that were taking points the previous week and a 6-0 ATS ledger laying points after laying them the previous game.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the AFC East and 3-13-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a divisional home contest, including 1-10-1 ATS before Game Fourteen of the season. Miami is chewing up and spitting out losing opponents behind head coach Mike McDaniel (15-3 SU and 13-4-1 ATS –including 9-0 SUATS the last nine games), and Tennessee just 1-5 SUATS away in its previous six Monday nighters against .666 or greater opposition, we can only look one way here.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Philadelphia isn’t currently scheduled to face another squad with a winning record for the remainder of the regular season. That should be good news considering the fact the Eagles are 9-4 SUATS in this series in games in which they own a .750 or greater win percentage, including 5-0 ATS when Dallas enters off a win. Take the points with the better team coming off an embarrassing loss, and if you’re uncomfortable, consider that the Eagles are 16-6 SU and 14-7-1 ATS versus winning foes during the regular season behind QB Jalen Hurts, including 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS the last fifteen games

NFL Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Seahawks bring artillery of their own into this battle with a jaw-dropping 24-8 SU and 25-6-1 ATS mark in games when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a win of 7 or more points. They are also 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in this series before Game Fourteen of the season, including 7-0 ATS when the Niners enter off a SUATS win. However, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 9-1 SUATS in his career when coming off three losses, including 5-0 SUATS with the Seahawks, as well as 8-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 3 Units

The Ravens went into their week of rest with a half-game lead for home-field advantage and the lone playoff bye but now trail Miami due to tiebreakers. That should get their attention today. Especially knowing they are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games in this series. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 3-0 since their Bye week, but find themselves facing the well-rested Ravens. It’s important given the fact the Rams are on 2-9 ATS against rested foes under Sean McVay, including a 0-7 ATS losing skid the last seven games (0-2 this season). And the Rams bring a hard-to-like 2-10 ATS log into this fray when coming off back-to-back SUATS wins.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is ‘leaking oil’, having been outgained in its last three games. Sure, the Dirty Birds sport the better offense and the better defense, but they are 0-6 ATS when coming off a road win as a favorite and 2-9 ATS as home chalk of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 7-2 SUATS in games off a win-no-cover, including 4-0 SUATS in division battles. With Baker Mayfield in a good rhythm with a 90.8 Passer Rating in his last five starts, the quarterback edge goes to Tampa. And with it, the points become the play today.

Rating: 2 Units

Before Burrow suffered his season-ending wrist injury, the Bengals were Super Bowl contenders that had the lead in a primetime road game against the best team in the AFC. By the end of the afternoon on Sunday, the Bengals were out of the playoff hunt as Jake Browning became the 50th quarterback to start a game in the NFL this season. To no one’s surprise, the Bengals totaled 10 first downs in a 16-10 home loss to the Steelers last week. Behind the league’s worst rushing offense, Browning stands little to no chance. It doesn’t get any better tonight, not with Cincy 1-8 ATS on the Monday night road. On the opposite side of the coin, the Jaguars are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as Monday Night favorites.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Kansas City totes an unacceptably weak rush defense into Lambeau that surrenders 4.6 Yards Per Rush. The Chiefs are also 2-9 ATS when coming off one win, including 1-5 ATS away. In addition, the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3-plus points under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes. Toss in QB Jordan Love’s 3-0 SUATS career mark at home against non-conference opposition, and finally Kansas City is 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Last week, Philadelphia erased a double-digit fourth quarter deficit when they rallied back to beat Buffalo in overtime, thanks largely to a flagrant no-penalty tackle on Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The no-call was accentuated when Allen was flagged for intentional grounding on a play that could have just as easily been ruled a horse-collar tackle against Hassan Reddick during what ended up being a 37-34 Eagles overtime victory. And speaking of quarterbacks, Purdy also shines with an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS record in his NFL career against foes with a winning record, including 6-0 SUATS in games in which San Francisco sports a .777 or fewer win percentage. Interestingly, the Niners lead the league in YAC (Yards After Catch), while the Eagles lead the league in allowing the fewest Yards After a Catch. With Philadelphia likely eyeing up next week’s pivotal clash with Dallas (0-6-1 ATS before the Cowboys), we put the final wrap on this call with the fact that playing on any NFL team coming off 3 wins if they came off a Bye week prior to the wins is a perfect 8-0.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS against losing teams, including 7-0 SUATS in the last seven matchups. McDaniel is also 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a pair of losses. After opening the season 2-0, Washington has hit the skids, entering today’s fray as losers in 8 of its 10 games since. They are also 0-4 against better than .600 opposition this season. With that, look for Miami to improve on its 4-0 ATS record against foes coming off a Thursday contest, while the Commanders dip to 1-6 ATS in their last seven games hosting AFC foes, and 0-6 ATS in games when coming off a road loss.

Rating: 2 Units

QB Gardner Minshew has stepped in and has the Colts in playoff contention, riding a 3-0 SUATS heater entering this contest. He’ll need to overcome a watered-down dog log today, though, as the Stache is only 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS against .333 or greater opponents in his NFL career starts, including 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS against those coming off a win. Complicating matters, star RB Jonathan Taylor is out after surgery on an injured thumb. The Titans enter the game at 12-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off an ATS win and 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this series. Meanwhile, the unlucky horseshoes are 1-5 ATS in their last six division road outings and 0-5 ATS in division games when both teams are coming off ATS wins

Thursday Night Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Dallas looks to close the gap on the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles in the NFC Playoff Picture. For all of their success, though, there is a tax that must be paid, and tonight it comes as an inflated 9-point favorite. It’s more than they laid here to the Jets and 3-points more than what they were favored by here against New England. Topping it off, they have a same-season revenge rematch on tap with the Eagles. Pete Carroll’s crew enters this affair 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Carroll is also 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in Game Twelve of the season, including 8-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. With those boxes checked we wrap it up with the fact that Seattle is 14-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as an underdog, including 10-0 ATS in the last ten games

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings return home having had their 5-0 SUATS win skein snapped in a loss at Denver last week. The bigger problem they face tonight is they beat Chicago earlier this season in a game in which they mustered 220 yards while being outstatted in the contest. It was the game in which Justin Fields was injured, but he’s back. With it, the Bears bring a 6-1 ATS log in Monday Night road games. On the flip side, Minny is just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on Mondays since 2009, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a loss. 

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

If the NFL playoffs were to begin this week, Philly would own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, due to its recent funk, Buffalo would be on the outside looking in as the No. 8 seed in the AFC. Remember, though, the Bills are one of only five NFL teams that rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense this season – the Eagles do not. We top it off with the fact that Buffalo is 5-0 SUATS the last ten years against foes coming off a Monday Night game. Finally, playing against any NFL home team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game is 6-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland enters Mile High this week feeling a Mile High themselves. Meanwhile, Denver enters today’s game on a 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS run in its last five games against the AFC North. They also had a -52 net PPG on the season, as opposed to Cleveland’s +47 net PPG this campaign. On the other side of the field, Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. With Denver, 2-12-1 ATS in its last fifteen games as a favorite, look for Kevin Stefanski’s magical patchwork show to continue its winning ways today.

Rating: 2 Units

Imagine the anguish Carolina Panthers’ owner David Tepper is going through. He insisted Carolina make Bryce Young the first pick of last year’s draft, only to watch C.J. Stroud carve up the league en route to a certain Rookie of the Year award. His young Cats hit the road with the worst record (1-9) in the NFL, standing 2-8 ATS when coming off a home loss while owning the second-to-worst offense in the league (thanks to the Giants). Sure, Carolina is 10-3 ATS against the AFC South, but they catch Tennessee in a nasty mood after taking an 0-3 SUATS hat trick in its last three games – all on the road. With the Titans 9-0 ATS before facing the Colts and 9-2 ATS after tackling the Jaguars, look for Tepper to blow another gasket here today.

Rating: 2 Units

New York Giants undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito was sacked nine times Sunday, yet also threw a career-best three TDs against the Washington Commanders, notching his first NFL win. It’s what having a 6-0 turnover edge in your favor will do for you. With the Pats 6-0 ATS recently as non-conference road chalk and 7-2 ATS versus .333 or fewer foes, look for the Giants to return to their losing ways today.

Rating: 2 Units

Today’s game is a battle for the top spot in the AFC South and with it, the Texans bring the better offense and the better defense into this contest. Houston is 5-1 ATS as a dog behind Stroud, winning 4 of the games outright. They are also 21-5 SU and 15-10-1 ATS in this series, including 8-2 ATS as a dog. With the ‘Ville 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games and 4-8 ATS in its last dozen division games, we’re on the take here today.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Biggest Achilles without Joe Brr is the Bengals’ pitiable ground game which ranks last in Rush Attempts Per Game and No. 30 in overall rushing. Still, the bottom line is Pittsburgh is still 0-10 ‘In the Stats’ this season, and you won’t find us laying points with them any time soon. Not with the Bengals 5-0-2 ATS when coming off two losses, including 4-0 outright in the last four games. While this appears a strange “Best Bet” consider that the Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is 12-3 ATS as a dog against an opponent the Bengals defeated in their most recent meeting, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than one-point

Rating: 2 Units

While Miami has nary a win against teams with a winning record this season, they are 7-0 versus .500 or fewer foes. It’s a Mike McDaniel thing, as he is 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS with Miami against losing teams, including 8-0 ATS in the last eight games. With gang Green just 1-6 ATS in the first of three straight home games and 2-8 ATS on weekdays, we’ll lay the wood in this Black Friday special.

Rating: 3 Units

Seahawks are 10-2 SU and 9–3-1 ATS at home in this series, including 7-1 SU and 7-0–1 ATS if not coming off an ATS loss of 4 or more points. They are also 8-2 ATS as home dogs of 3-plus points. San Francisco enters 4-9 ATS versus division foe seeking triple revenge, including 1-6 ATS when coming off consecutive wins. And they are winless on Turkey day at 0-2 ATS. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 23-9-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Detroit is 15-4 SUATS at home when coming off wins in each of their previous three games, including 9-1 SUATS when they sport a .690 or greater win percentage. Green Bay saved its season by beating the Chargers. Unfortunately, its next two games come against the Lions today and Chiefs next week, and they are riding a 0-4 SUATS mark in the last four games in this series and have topped 24 points on only one occasion this season (in their opener against the Bears). Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points are 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when facing .500 or fewer foes, including 6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. With that, look for Detroit to improve on its current 11-1 ATS record in division contests.

Rating; 2 Units

Teams returning off a SUATS win in Europe are 3-10 ATS, with rest against avenging foes, including 0-3 SUATS versus winning foes. Philly is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS of late in regular season games against .750 or better opponents. On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs are 3-5-1 ATS as regular season favorites against .750 or better opponents. With the Chiefs holding a commanding 3-game lead in the AFC West, we don’t expect to be seeing much urgency tonight, especially since the Eagles are 13-4 SU and 15-2 ATS on Mondays when coming off a SUATS win, including 14-0 ATS when Philadelphia owns a winning record. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Seahawks have allowed more yards than they’ve gained this season. and the ultra-angry Rams enter off their Bye week riding a 0-3 SUATS losing skein. Underdogs in this role are 27-10-1 ATS since 1995. It doesn’t hurt that L.A. is 9-1 ATS the last ten games in this series, including 5-0 ATS when the Seahawks arrive off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, Seattle enters just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven division roadies, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Tie it into the Rams’ 26-16-1 ATS record in division games behind Sean McVay, and McVay’s 4-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive division games when coming off a loss of 7 or more points, plus McVay’s 3-0 ATS career mark as a division dog with a losing record. Finally, the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS as a dog with a week of rest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Niners got off the schneid in a big way in last week’s rout of the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week, and with it, they have reasserted themselves as the team to beat on the road to the Super Bowl. They’ll bring a 15-2 ATS mark as home favorites into the tilt, including 10-0 SUATS from Game Ten out. The Bucs currently enter as the No. 8 overall seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, but are 1-7 ATS against the NFC West and 1-6 ATS after hosting an AFC opponent.

Rating: 2 Units

Making his first start after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament last year, Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray was a bit rusty against the Falcons. That’s normal. But with his rushing, his ability to extend plays, his pocket presence and his arm, the downtrodden Cardinals (2-8) are far more competitive with him under center. Murray completed 19-of-32 for 249 yards with no touchdowns against one interception in the Cardinals’ 25-23 win. He also scored a rushing touchdown while gaining 33 yards on the ground on six carries, including a 13-yard scramble on a third-and-10 with 1:50 left in the game that set up the game-winning field goal. Noting Arizona’s 5-1 ATS mark against the AFC South and the Texans’ tepid 1-5 ATS record before hosting a division opponent. Finally, playing against any NFL favorite with a winning record from Game Five out if they won 4 or fewer games last season and are off a SU underdog win in their last game 32-66-4-4 ATS in this role since 1980. Bring them in against an opponent off a win, and they lose almost all of their luster, going 8-29 ATS. To top it off, if the foe is not coming off consecutive home games, these favorites fall to 3-27 ATS.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers have recorded 36 fewer first downs than opponents this season, and they’ve run 75 fewer offensive plays. This game also presents a matchup of the league’s top two sack masters in T.J. Watt, who has the most sacks in NFL history in his first 100 games, against the Browns Defensive MVP leading candidate Myles Garrett, who is tied for the lead league with 11. With the Browns bringing a lethal combo of top rated Rushing Attempts Per Game (34.9) along with the league’s top-ranked defense, look for the “rally around the backup” war chant to carry them to 5-1 SUATS in their last six division home games in the Dawg Pound today. Finally, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-11 ATS away in his career against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 2-10 ATS when the Steelers sport a .500 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

The Bengals have taken numerous standing 8-counts this season, entering tonight’s contest 1-4 against the AFC, including 0-2 in division games. If they lose this contest, they will have little to no chance in any tiebreakers when it comes to the NFL playoffs. Cincinnati is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last eleven games as a dog behind Burrow, as well as 4-0 ATS away against foes coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Finally, Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS away with Burrow when coming off a loss, including 5-0 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .400 or greater record.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Denver checks in 0-9 ATS when coming off an underdog win, 0-7 ATS of late in this series, 0-6 ATS away when coming off consecutive home games, and 1-8 ATS when they are coming off a pair upset wins. And we didn’t even mention the Broncos’ 1-5 ATS ledger on the Monday Night road. Buffalo piles on at 7-0 SUATS in its last seven games as a favorite against the AFC West. They are also 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 SUATS at home. If that’s not enough, then check out that Buffalo is 33-12 SUATS coming off three ATS losses, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win (9-0 ATS at home).

Rating: 2 Units

Just when the Giants fan base was hopeful after Daniel Jones' return, a knee injury. NY has trailed by 20+ pts in 4 games already this season. Tommy DeVito had his 1st career TD pass w/ the Giants down 27-0 in the 4th. NY is the 1st team to score less then 16 pts in 7 straight games since Denver in '18-'19. Too many missed opportunities was the difference in Philadelphia last week. Dallas has their longest home winning streak (11) since '91-'92, the 1st year when they won the Super Bowl under Jimmy Johnson. They have outscored their opponents 111-33 at home this year. CD Lamb w/ 11 rec for 191 yards vs Eagles. The Boys check in mad as hell, and they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when coming off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions arrive with likely more fans than the Chargers, knowing they are 10-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. They are also 10-1 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win, as well as 6-0 ATS as a favorite after being a favorite in its last game. The fact of the matter is we could go on and on and on lighting up the board with dandy Detroit trends. On the flip side, the Bolts return off an inside-out Monday night win over the Jets when they put up only 191 yards of total offense in a 27-6 victory. With the Chargers 1-12 ATS against teams coming off a Bye week, look for the Lions to roar once again. 

Rating: 3 Units

The problem at hand today, is Jackson’s inability to deliver the goods as a home favorite with the Ravens, just 13-21 ATS overall and 3-8 ATS in division duels, including 1-5 ATS versus .500 or better foes. That could be a problem down the road for Jackson, considering that every team in the division is 5-3 or better, all playoff qualifiers today. And speaking of defense, Cleveland has now held two different opponents under 100 yards this season, which is impressive, when you consider that no other team has even done it once this season. Also, the Browns are the first team since 1992 to hold multiple teams under 100 yards in one season. Like the Ravens, Cleveland has limited four foes to season-low yards this campaign. We understand the Brownies are 0-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win, but QB Deshaun Watson is 11-2-1 ATS as a dog in this league when his team was favored by more the three points in its previous game. Remember, there was no Watson when the Ravens put a 28-3 beatdown on the Browns in an earlier meeting in October. Finally, Cleveland HC shines in games when installed as a dog of more than 3 points in his career, going 11-4 ATS, including 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge. 

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Teams off a Bye on a 5-0 SUATS win skein in their last five games are just 3-8 ATS since 2009, including 0-4 ATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses. Then there is Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan’s 6-1 ATS career record in games when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, including 4-0 ATS away. That makes today’s contest a minefield for surging Jacksonville. Making matters worse, the Niners rank 4th in the league in scoring defense and 5th on offense in Rush Attempts Per Game and Rushing Yards Per Game. Finally, .545 or greater NFL teams who have lost each of their last three games SUATS are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 1980 versus foes who are 3-0 SUATS in their last three games.

Rating: 2 Units

Any excitement this Bears franchise had about Tyler Bagent is over, as they have lost their last two games, and Bagent has been a turnover machine. The Bears have the worst turnover differential in the league, and it has just gotten worse since Fields went down. The Bears are not good enough to be laying more than a field goal, Chicago has not covered a game as a favorite this season, in-fact they have only been a favorite once all year. The Panthers coaching staff may be fighting for their job, as rumors have swirled that coach Reich may be out after one year. The team will want to put Bryce Young in the best position for success, he was drafted first overall for a reason and will prove it against this weak Bears' defense. This game is on a short week, and it will not give Bagent time to prepare adequately, especially since the team is unsure if Fields will return. We'll side with the team with the potential future star quarterback, as opposed to the team with a backup who keeps turning it over.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

The Chargers rolled past Chicago last Sunday Night when QB Herbert completed 31-of-40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to put themselves back in the playoff picture (they currently rank No. 12 in the current playoff seeding, one game back of No. 7 Cleveland for the final spot). The Jets figure to comply behind a horrible 1-7 ATS mark in games when both teams were favored the previous contest. Finally, the New York Jets are 2-9 SUATS in Game eight of the season, including 0-5 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo has been struggling so much of the year, yet is only one game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East. Nevertheless, they’ll take the field this evening knowing they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six regular games against the AFC Central, as well as 13-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off SUATS wins.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Dallas has 11 wins in a row at AT&T Stadium, the league’s longest current run of dominance at home, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 road games. However, they are also 6-1 SUATS in their last seven division games as a road dog of fewer than 4 points. Mike McCarthy chips in with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games with a .500 or greater record with Dallas. The Cowboys enter this division duke out at 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, while first-place Philly is 5-12 ATS in division home games against avenging opponents, including 1-5 ATS when the Eagles sport a winning record. Finally, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS in division games, including 7-1 SUATS during the first half of the season.

Rating: 3 Units

Pete Carroll is 52-36-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks, including 16-7-1 ATS as a single-digit dog versus .750 or greater opposition. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the home team is 26-43-3 ATS in Lamar Jackson’s NFL starts, and Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in the first of three straight home game, while QB Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as an NFL home favorite, including 1-7 ATS when the Ravens are coming off an ATS loss of -3 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Dolphins are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS against sub .333 opponents, but only 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS against .500 or greater opposition. The bottom line is the Chiefs check the latter box, and given the fact that you are generally as good as the company you keep, Featherhead freaks can take solace knowing Reid is 39-24 ATS in his NFL career in games following a SU favorite loss, including 22-9 SU and 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 7 or fewer points, including 6-0 ATS the last six games. Editor’s Note: These two teams are currently seeded No. 1 and 2 in the AFC Playoff Picture. Per Stathead.com – there has never been a Europe game between two teams that finished a season with a .700 winning percentage or better. Be sure to get up early and watch football.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh has four wins, and the Black-and-Gold’s offense has scored 12, 23, 17, and 24 points, respectively, in each – or an average average of 19 points per contest. It’s brutal. In fact, it’s eerily similar to another Black-and-Gold college football offense we’ve come to despise this season – Iowa. With it, the 3-4 Titans bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray against the 4-3 Steelers. With Tennessee a tidy 7-0-1 ATS in Game Eight’s the past eight seasons and the Burgers 0-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of -3 or more points.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Detroit returns home where they are 13-2-1 ATS as a host since Thanksgiving day in 2021. They are also 7-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a SUATS loss. And then there are the Raiders, who rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 69 yards on the ground, despite having Josh Jacobs in the backfield, which goes to the abilities of Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Note that home teams on Monday Night Football are a resolute 31-18 ATS since 1980 when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. Finally, Lions’ head coach Campbell is 17-8-1 ATS at home as an NFL head coach, as well as 18-6 ATS in games in which his squad hold foes to 100 or fewer rush yards, including 14-1 ATS the last 15 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite having the luxury of golden-armed QB Justin Herbert, Brandon Staley is looking over his shoulder with the poor performance by the Chargers this season. They sport the 31st-ranked (2nd worst) overall defense in the league and have outgained only two opponents in overall yardage this season (by 01 and 41 yards). Still, with Chicago 0-5 SUATS off a win, as well as 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, it’s difficult casting a glance their way tonight, especially with Bagent making his second NFL start. Look for the Bolts to improve to 5-1 ATS under Staley in games when coming off consecutive losses tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

With Saquon Barkley back in the starting lineup, expect Big Blue to attack a lean Green rush defense that is 16-34 ATS in the last 50 games in which it allowed 100-plus yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Jets have not won a game when coming off a Bye week since 2015, going 1-10 outright, including seven straight losses since 2015 (0-2 SUATS under Robert Saleh), while the Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Giants are 8-4 ATS as a pick or dog in non-division games under Brian Daboll, including 3-0 SUATS versus .500 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Now that Belichick is breathing without a bit after last weeks win, we’ll look to fade him in a series he’s gone 0-6 ATS of late while bringing a 1-9 ATS dog-log into this affair, while his counterpart Mike McDaniel looks to improve on his 7-2 ATS mark in division games (3-0 SUATS at home). 

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is on top of the AFC South for the first time in eight seasons, despite a minus-18-point differential. To which they can thank a defense that ranks No. 4 overall, allowing a mere 285 YPG. The Titans’ hope is coming off a Bye week, where they are 6-0 ATS in this series when rested, and a 5-0 ATS log at home before hitting the highway in the next two games, which should fit like a glove into the Falcons’ flighty 3-12 ATS record away in games when coming off an away contest.

Rating: 2 Units

A positive omen is the fact that NFL underdogs who have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last two games are 7-2 ATS the past nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a non-division contest. On the flip side, the Texans check is 0-4 ATS as a favorite after dressing up as a dog in their previous game. With Carolina 4-0 ATS in this series, and 7-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Bye, and 9-2 ATS against AFC South opponents, we’ll fade a Houston squad that is 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a Bye. With the Texans having 11 players on the IR, which ties with the Colts and Falcons for most in the league, look for the Panthers to win today. 

NFL Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins silenced the critics as he was simply terrific with a brilliant performance against the 49ers on Monday Night with a 35 of 45 (77.8 %) effort for 478 yards and two TDs. That’s the same Kirk Cousins who was 2-10 SUATS in his NFL career on Monday Nights. So, with the Packers riding a 1-6 ATS skein in the second of back-to-back games as chalk, and the Vikes 4-1 ATS after Monday Night hosters, and finally Vikings QB Cousins is 11-3 SUATS away from Game Four out versus sub .400 NFL opponents in his NFL career, including 6-0 ATS versus non division foes

Rating: 2 Units

After falling into a 14-0 hole, the Dolphins scored 6 TDs on 12 possessions and cruised past Carolina last week, setting the table in this battle of one-loss squads. Since 2004, 5-0 teams who lost their initial season games in the previous contest are 6-2 SUATS at home in bounce-back efforts, including 4-0 SUATS in the last four. With the Eagles 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS against the AFC East, including 6-1 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents, and the Dolphins 1-5 SUATS in games coming off a pair of 14-plus point wins, it’s back to business for Philly tonight.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after firing Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Chiefs 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game. Finally, defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

LA will need to put a complete game together, with star WR Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, that will happen real soon. Knowing the Rams are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS when coming off a division home game and facing a .500 or greater foe certainly aids their case. So does the fact that head Steeler Mike Tomlin is 3-10 ATS away off a win with rest in his career versus non-division opponents. Finally, .600 or greater NFL road dogs, coming off a Bye that won their previous game outright as an underdog, are 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS – including 0-7 SUATS since 2000 if they are facing a sub .600 opponent.

Rating: 3 Units

After tallying more than 36 points in Games Two through Four, the Bills plateaued with 20-and-14-point scoring efforts the past two weeks. Buffalo’s rush defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.4 YPR (only Denver is worse at 5.6). That’s a full 2.0 YR worse than the 3.4 yards per carry that the Pats allow. Aside from Buffalo having a difficult time in Game Sevens, 1-7-1 ATS the last eight years, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the seventh games of the season, including 6-2 outright. Finally, Patriots HC, Belichick is 15-4 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a sub .250 win percentage.