Miami vs Boston  
8-Unit best bet on the Heat plus the points 
The Boston Celtics fell apart again, this time in Game 1 holding a 12-point lead early in the third quarter only to squander the lead and fall 12 points behind at the end of the stanza. Marcus Smart had 10 assists in the first quarter, none in the second, just one in the third, and mome in the fourth. Celtics head coach failed to even call a timeout during the third quarter collapse and his inexperience really showed against one of the best veteran head coaches in the NBA in Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler is not going to let his team think they accomplished what they set out do by earning a split in the first two games.  

From the predictive model, we are expecting Miami to shoot better than Boston and to have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which Miami met these performance measures has earned them a 63-11 SU record, 64-10 ATS mark (87%) winning bets in road games played in the past five seasons. In road playoff games, the Heat have gone 20-0 SU and 18-2 ATS for 90%. In playoff games, the Celtics are 1-11 SUATS when not shooting better than their foe and having the worse assist-to-turnover ratio spanning the past five seasons. 

 
Player Props for no more than 1-Unit Pizza money sized bets unless otherwise noted 
Max Strus Over 2.5 made 3-pointers –123 at BetMGM 
Jimmy Butler to record a double-double +390 at DraftKings 
Al Horford to commit at least 1 turnover –125 at BetMGM 

Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points. My LIVE I-game strategy is to bet 60% preflop and then look to add 20% more at Warriors +6.5 and the remaining 20% at Warriors +9.5 points during the first half of action. I do like the Under for a 5-Unit amount too.  
  LeBron is 15-0 in games that close out a series, but this is the reigning world champion Warriors that still has Steph, Klay and Draymond in it. I have stated that I thought this series woud go 7 games despite the Warriors being down 3 games to 1. The Warriors have played 28 consecutive playoff series attaining at least one road win in every series.  
  The 7 seeds are 59-164 SU (27%), 85-135-3 ATS (39%) in the playoffs since 2002. A 7-seed has not made it to the Conference Finals since at least 2002. In a series in which the 7-seed was leading or was tied, they have gone 31-80 SU and 44-64-3 ATS for 41% and the Under has been solid at 63-45-3 for 58% winning tickets. From game-5 on, these 7-seeds are just 3-24 SU and 8-19 ATS. The Under is 18-5 for 78% winning tickets when favored.  

Since 2013, the Warriors are 9-3 SU (75%) and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners when facing elimination.  
 
 

Knicks vs Heat 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Heat minus the points. My in-game LIVE strategy is to bet 75% on the Heat preflop and then look to add 25% more on the Heat at pick-em or better.  
 
From my predictive models, we are expecting the Heat to shoot 48% or better from the field and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games, in which the Heat met these performance measures has earned an outstanding 50-5 SU record and 45-10 ATS record for 82% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors 

8-Unit best bet on the Warriors minus the points. I like the strategy of betting 60% preflop at the current price and then looking to add 20% more at Warriors – 4.5 and Warriors –1.5 points. 

Betting on any team off a loss of three or fewer points to a divisional foe and with that foe having covered the spread in their last two games priced as a favorite has earned an outstanding 21-6 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 27 seasons.  

Betting on any playoff team trailing in the series 3 games to one, coming off a heart-breaking loss by three or fewer points and is now the favorite up to and including -9.5 points has earned a perfect 7-0 SUATS record.  
 
Take the Warriors 
 

Boston vs Philadelphia Game-3 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers plus the points, currently priced at +2 points.  
For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the 76ers at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the 76ers at +5.5 points and 15% more at +7.5 points during the first half of action only. You are betting the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It’s like trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss in games played this season, and 15-5 ATS when revenging a loss in which the foe scored 110 or more points this season. 
 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the 76ers to score 114 or more points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the 76ers met these performance measures have led them to post a 116-13 SU (90%) record and 97-31-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the 76ers are 34-3 SU and 28-8-1 ATS. The Celtics have posted a money-losing 6-17 SU and 6-15-2 ATS record (29%) when allowing 114 or more points and the lower assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past five seasons.  
Bet on the 76ers and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

Baltimore vs Atlanta 

8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line  
 
Betting on any team that is coming off a three-game sweep of a divisional rival and is facing a foe from the other league (inter-league) has earned a solid 30-12 record averaging a –111 wager and producing a 33% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. The Run line is 15-9 63% averaging a –103 bet and a 30% ROI. 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently priced at –9.5 points.  
(Repeat from yesterday) For those new to the service, thank you for trusting me and my 28 years of pro experience and looking to build strong long-lasting relationships with all of you. The 8-unit bet is your normal bet size, but I do highly recommend you make it 4% of your total bankroll. The 8-Unit best bet is the most common and is the foundation of my betting methods and strategies. The sacle for sides and totals ranges from 5 to 10-Units with 10-Units being akin to other’s Games of the month or Games of the Year. Even though the 10-Unit best bets have hit at 68.4% across all major sports and spanning more than 3 calendar years you must be disciplined and resist the temptation to bet more than what a 10-Unit betting amount is for you. So, if you bet $100 per unit, the 8-unit is $800 and the 10-unit $1000. Note, that there is a 25% increase in the amount wagered between the 8 and 10-unit bets. So, if you bet $100 per 8-unit wager, the 10-unit would be $125.00 and never more than $150 no matter what.  

     Player prop bets will range from 0.25% to 2% of your bankroll or $25.00 for the 2% bet if you are wagering $100 per 8-unit bet. 

     Pizza money bets mean that it is up to you to decide whether it is a plain pizza costing 0.25% or a full supreme double cheese, double pepperoni for $25.00 or 2% of the bankroll. (end of repeat intro) 

Let’s now get to the analytics, shall we?  

For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the 76ers at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the 76ers at 14.5 points and 15% more at 17.5 points during the first half of action only. You are betting the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It’s like trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second-half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the 76ers to score 110 points and have a better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the 76ers met these performance measures have led them to post a 57-7 SU record (89%) and 48-16 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past three seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the 76ers are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS. The Celtics have posted a money-losing 25-31 SU and 20-36 ATS record (36%) when allowing 110 or more points and the lower assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past three seasons.  
Bet on the 76ers and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

Miami Heat vs NY Knicks 
8-Unit best bet on the Knicks minus the points, currently priced at –6.5 points. For those new to the service, thank you for trusting me and my 28 years of pro experience and looking to build strong long-lasting relationships with all of you. The 8-unit bet is your normal bet size, but I do highly recommend you make it 4% of your total bankroll. The 8-Unit best bet is the most common and is the foundation of my betting methods and strategies. The sacle for sides and totals ranges from 5 to 10-Units with 10-Units being akin to other’s Games of the month or Games of the Year. Even though the 10-Unit best bets have hit at 68.4% across all major sports and spanning more than 3 calendar years you must be disciplined and resist the temptation to bet more than what a 10-Unit betting amount is for you. So, if you bet $100 per unit, the 8-unit is $800 and the 10-unit $1000. Note, that there is a 25% increase in the amount wagered between the 8 and 10-unit bets. So, if you bet $100 per 8-unit wager, the 10-unit would be $125.00 and never more than $150 no matter what.  

Player prop bets will range from 0.25% to 2% of your bankroll or $25.00 for the 2% bet if you are wagering $100 per 8-unit bet. 

Pizza money bets mean that it is up to you to decide whether it is a plain pizza costing 0.25% or a full supreme double cheese, double pepperoni for $25.00 or 2% of the bankroll. 

Let’s now get to the analytics, shall we? In the second round of the NBA playoffs teams that lost Game-1 and are the lower seed (better regular season record) and are favored between 5 and 10 points in Game-2 have gone 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets. This obviousy supports the bet on the Knicks. 

For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the Knicks at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the Knicks at –2.5 points and 15% more at pick-em during the first half of action only. You are bettig the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It Islike trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the Knicks to score 114 or more points and shoot 49% or better from the field. In past games in which the Knicks met these performance measures has led them to post a 36-9 SU record (80%) and 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past three seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the Kicks are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. Miami has posted a money-losing 11-35 SU and 10-36 ATS record (22%) when allowing 115 or more points and allowing a shooting percentage 49% or higher in games played over the past three seasons. If after the break and including playoffs 1-3 SU and ATS. 
 
Bet on the Miami Heat and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

Boston vs Atlanta 
Game-4 
8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Celtics minus the 6 points 
Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who lost the last time they played this opponent and that opponent scored 100 or more points. The host is coming off a home win in which they scored 120 or more points and has earned an outstanding 34-8 SU 81% record and 29-13 ATS mark for 69% winning bets. This situational betting system has not had a losing season since 2004. If the game is taking place in the playoffs, our favorite is 7-2 ATS. 

Cleveland vs Knicks 
8-Unit best bet on the Knicks minus the points 
 
Betting on home teams in the same playoff round that are priced between a 3.5 dog and 3.5 favorite that defeated their foe in the previous game and with that foe shooting a horrid 25% from beyond the arc have gone 24-8 ATS for 75% since 2006. If our host is a favorite from pick-em to –3.5 points has earned an even better 18-4 ATS mark for 82% winners. 

From my predictive models, we learn that the Cavs are just 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS for 15% when allowing 111 or more points and getting outrebounded by 10 or more boards in games played over the past three seasons. The Knicks are 26-8 SU and 27-7 ATS for 79% winning bets when outrebounding their foes by 10 or more boards and scoring 111 or more points in games played over the past three seasons. 

Nets vs 76ers 

8-Unit bets bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently priced at 10. 

The Nets had a game plan to double-team Joel Embiid and force the other 76ers on the floor to make perimeter shots and they sure came through with a franchise record 21 made 3-pointers. So, now that the Nets went all-in with that game plan and it failed, the alternative to not double-team Embiid could lead to an even worse outcome for the Nets.  

Over the past five playoff seasons, teams that have won between 45 and 55% of their games during the regular season and are trailing in the series are just 7-30 ATS for 19%. Playing on the home teams in Game-2 of an NBA Round 1 playoff series regardless if they are priced as a dog or favorite has gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winners over the past five seasons. Double digit favorites in the playoffs are 23-4 SU and 18-7-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

From my predictive models, we are expecting the 76ers to score 115 or more points and shoot 48% or better from the field. In past home games in which the 76ers met or exceeded those performance measures, has led them to a 45-1 SU record and 34-12 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers (April 15) 
10-Unit best bet on the Cavaliers minus the points 
 

The top-4 seeds in the first two games of a playoff round are favored by 6 to 10 points and have the higher effective field goal percentage is 38-17-1 ATS for 69% of winners since 2017. Drilling down a bit further, if the total is between 205 and 215, these home teams have gone a quite impressive 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2017.  

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Cavaliers to score 111 or more points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the Cavs have met or exceeded these measures in home games has led to a highly profitable 27-6-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past three seasons. The Knicks in road games are just 12-24-2 ATS for 33% in the same scenarios.  
 

Nets vs Sixers Game-1 Round 1 (April 15)  
8-Unit best bet on the Sixers minus the points 
 
Betting on home teams in the playoffs facing a 6th seed or higher seed that has the lower opponent effective field goal percentage during the regular season are 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, seeds 1 through 4 in the first two games of a playoff series that have the better season-to-date effective field goal percentage are 72-51-1 ATS for 59% winners since 2017. Moreover, the top-4 seeds in the first two games of a playoff round are favored by 6 to 10 points and have the higher effective field goal percentage is 38-17-1 ATS for 69% winners since 2017.  
The 76ers had the third-highest scoring fourth-quarter scoring differential in the NBA this season. Playoff home favorites that outscored their foes by an average of 1.75 or more PPG in the fourth stanza are 87-58-2 ATS for 60% winners. Overall, the 76ers went 54-28 SU and an impressive 48-34 ATS for 59% winning bets and in home games went 29-12 SU and 25-16 ATS for 61% winning bets this season.  

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago Bulls plus the points. I lik betting this matchup with a 70% bet preflop on the Bulls plus the current points available. Then during the first half of action only, look to add 15% more at 7.5 and 16% more at 9.5 points. 
 
From my predictive models, we are looking for the Bulls to score 111 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers than the Heat. In past games in which the Bulls met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 17-9 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. When Miami has been home they are 4-20 ATS for 17% when having more turnovers and allowing 111 or more points in games played over the past five seasons.  
 

Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors 
8-Unit best bet on the Bulls plus the 5.5 points 
 
Live In-Game Strategy 
Bet 80% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the Bulls preflop, then add 15% more at 8.5 points preflop and then 5% on the money line if the in=game betting line moves to +10 or higher during the first half of action only.  
 
Situational Betting System 

The following betting system has produced exceptional and consistent results for many seasons sporting a 16-10 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past five seasons Betting on any team that has held their last three opponents to more than 30 points below the opponents’ team total and has win percentage between 40 and 49% in games played in the last 20 games of the season and playoffs.  

Toronto won their last game of the regular season 121-105 over the Milwaukee Bucks, who were resting starters and really had no interest in the game. However, this trend does get my attention knowing that Raptors Nick Nurse is just 19-36 ATS in home games following a double-digit win.  

Player Prop Best Bet 

Tyler Hero Over 29.5 -112 at FanDuel Points, Assists, Rebounds 

NCAA 2023 Championship Best Bet 
8-Unit Best bet on San Diego State plus the 7.5 points and do believe you will see 8 and 8.5 potentially prior to the tip off.  
LIVE Betting Strategy 
We have reached the final 40 minutes of the NCAA Tournament and two unlikely programs have navigated the March madness maze to reach this distinguished event set to start at 9:20 PM EST at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The Aztecs know they can come from behind and were down 14 points in the second half to FAU before rallying for the first-ever buzzer beater shot that was scored with the team trailing and not tied. In the third game of the season, Stanford was up 10 points and the Aztecs won by 12. They were down 13 points to Coastal Carolina before winning by six points. They were down 11 to the College of Charleston in the first round of the Tournament before rallying for a 6-point win. So, I like betting 70% preflop at +7.5 points and then adding 15% at 9.5 points and 15% at 11.5 points during the first half of action only. 
 
Although unlikely prior to the tournament, these two teams are the two best teams right now in the nation by many measures. They both prefer a slow, grinding, and physically tough style of game with UCONN ranking 252nd nationally averaging 66.7 possessions per game and SDST ranking 254th averaging 65.7 possessions per game.  

The Aztecs are the best defensive team in the nation overall and have been incredibly consistent at negating the three-point shot from an opponents’ scoring arsenal. For the season they allowed 26.50% 3-point shooting and were suffocating the best in the nation during the tournament. The Aztecs allowed 41% shooting from beyond the arc in their buzzer-beating win over FDU, who is the only team to have had success from beyond the arc. Prior to that Creighton shot a horrid 11.8%, No.1 seed Alabama shot 11.11%, Furman shot 23%, and College of Charlestown shot 20.83% from beyond the arc. Including FAU, only six teams managed to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc against the sensational Aztec perimeter defense this season. The Aztecs held 29 opponent s to 35% or lower 3-point shooting of their 38 games played. Tennessee also matched that defensive feat and both teams ranked number 1 in the nation in this category. UCONN ranked third with 28 opponents under 35% shooting from 3-point territory, but based on SOS rankings was against significantly easier foes.  
  Teams playing in the Finals that have the lower defensive 3-point shooting percentage are 4-1 ATS for 80%. Teams like the Aztecs that three of their five previous opponents led by three or more points are 8-4 ATS for 67% in the Championship game. The Aztecs are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe that makes 8 or more 3-point shot attempts per game this season.  
 
1-UNIT Player Props 
Darrion Trammell Under 9.5 points 

Andre Jackson Under 7.5 points 
Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points 
 

76ers vs Bucks 
10-Unit best bet on the 76ers plus the points 

LIVE Betting Strategy 
If you will be watching this game, then the following strategy is recommended. Place 50% of your 10-Unit bet preflop and then look to add 25% more at Sixers plus 7.5 points and 25% more at Sixers plus 10.5 points.  
 
Betting on winning record underdogs that are facing a winning record host that is fresh off a 20 or more-point loss priced as the favorite has earned a highly profitable 18-10 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons and a 40-22 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.  
In Thursday's 41-point home loss, Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a -32 plus-minus, his worst in any game of his career. Prior to this game, Antetokounmpo posted a -30 or worse plus-minus twice with a -31 against the Indiana Pacers on December 12, 2018, and a -31 against the LA Clippers March 29, 2021.  

The 76ers have won two straight games, covered the spread in three consecutive games. The Bucks are on a 4-game Over streak. Bucks are 13-25 when facing a team that has won 60 to 70% of their gamers on the season in games played over the past three seasons; 5-17 ATS when facing a team that has outscored their opponents by at least an average 3 PPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.  

From the predictive model, the 765ers are 31-4 SU and 24-10-1 ATS for 71% winning bets in road games, scoring 117 or more points, and making 35% or more of their 3-point shots spanning the past three seasons.  
 

Miami (FLA) vs UCONN 

10-Unit best bet on Miami plus the 5.5 points. Miami (29-7) will face UConn (29-8) in the second national semifinal on Saturday at NRG Stadium in Houston. It has been a banner season for the Hurricanes, who entered the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament as the top seed for the second time in program history. 

Miami has been led by senior guard Isaiah Wong, third-year sophomore forward NorchadOmier and fifth-year senior transfer guard Jordan Miller. Miller produced 27 points on perfect shooting to lead the Hurricanes to the 88-81 victory over the Longhorns on Sunday. 

The Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area has always been a perennial hot bed for football and baseball and may of their players had terrific careers in the pros. Both programs are making their first appearance in the Final Four, so add basketball as the third sport.  
 
Live Betting Strategy: This is a game that is going to a much faster pace than the first semifinal game. Betting 70% preflop on Miami at +5.5 and then add 30% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action. There will be scoring streaks by both teams. Overall, I do like Miami to pull off the uspet win here and move on the Finals – against FAU if everything works out there for us too. As a precursor I believe the line will be very close to pick-em if Miami and FAU meet in the Finals.  
 
Head coach Hurley is just 9-18 ATS in games away from the UCONN campus after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Miami head coach Larranaga is 28-14 ATS away from home after scoring 80 or more points in two consecutive games. 
 
 
Player Prop Bets: 1-UNIT MAX each recommended 
San Diego State’s Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points 
Miami’s Nigel Pack Over 13.5 points –110 
Miami’s NorchardOmier Over 22.5 points, assists, rebounds –110 
UCONN’s Andre Jackson Under 5.5 assists –110 
UCONN’s Alex Karaban Under 4.5 rebounds +100 
 
 

Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State 
8-Unit best bet on Florida Atlantic plus the points. 
3-Unit Parlay on FAU and Miami (FLA) money lines 
5-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total 
 
This matchup is the first game of the two NCAA Tournament semifinals taking place at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. First, I do not see the backdrops and backgrounds hindering shooting performances in either of these semifinals as we had seen in recent games taking place in Indianapolis, for instance. The first national semifinal of the Final Four at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday will feature a pair of first-time participants: Florida Atlantic (35-3) and San Diego State (31-6). And while the Owls and Aztecs made surprising runs to Houston, their season-long success belies the notion that their appearances are an aberration. The Owls are currently riding an 11-game winning streak that isn't even their longest of this season. FAU had its 20-game win streak snapped by an 86-77 road loss to UAB on Feb. 2. 

To many, the Owls might seem to be a bunch of unknowns. However, FAU leads the nation in victories and is ranked 15th in efficiency ratings. The Owls are no Cinderella and from a SDST perspective more akin to that evil stepsister.  

 
FAU uses their bench better than any other program and no player is averaging more than 30 minutes per game. At 13.1 points per game, Martin is one of three Owls averaging double figures in points with five-plus rebounds alongside fellow sophomores Johnell Davis and Vladislav Goldin. 

FAU has thrived via collective effort, and white-knuckle tournament victories over Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee and Kansas State validated the Owls' egalitarian approach to success. 

FAU is 14-3 when facing defensive teams averaging 14 forced turnovers PPG this season and 25-11 ATS when facing teams that are called for 17 or more fouls per game in games played over the past two seasons. FAU is 23-9 after covering the spread in two of their last three games spanning the past three seasons.  

 
Betting the Over in any Tournament semifinal game (NCAA, NIT, or CBI) with a total between 130 and 139.5 points and with one of the teams coming into the game on a 7 or more-game win streak has earned a 53-32-2 Over record over the past 25 years. 

NBA 10-Unit 5% Max Bet of the Month 
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns 
10-Unit best bet on the Phoenix Suns –5.5 points.  
5-Unit bet Over the posted total, currently priced at 235 points. An alternative wager is to bet 70% of your 5-unit amount at the current price preflop and then look to add 30% more at 226.5 points during the first half only. The higher the total, the greater the potential scoring volatility can be in an NBA game. I do not recommend a parlay unless you do it with pizza money amounts. 
 
The Suns are 19-6 ATS for 76% winning bets coming off a game shooting less than 43% from the field and facing a foe that is coming off a sharp shooting game hitting more than 50% from the field over the past five seasons.  

Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that is ocming off two road upset wins and has won 50 to 60% of their games on the season has gone 69-33-2 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1996. This system has had just one losing season, going 3-2 ATS in 1999. 

Betting the Over with a home team that has posted an excellent 2.5 or higher assists-to-turnover ratio in each of their last three games and facing a foe that has trouble moving the ball and taking care of it as reflected by an assist-to-turnover ratio under 2 for the season has earned a 28-13-1 Over record good for 68.3% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If the home team is playing on one day of rest, the Over record has earned a 20-7-1 mark for 74% winning bets. If the road team is playing on one day of rest, the Over record soars to 20-6-1 record for 77% winning bets. 

Magic vs Grizzlies
8-Unit bet on the Grizzlies minus the 7 points
Betting on home teams that are on a five or more-game win streak and defeated the current opponent in their previous same-season meeting, has won between 60 and 70% of their games on the season and facing a foe that has won betw3een 40 and 50% of their games on the season has earned a solid 11-5 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons and 38-17-3 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1996.

From the predictive model, Memphis is 90-21-1 ATS when scoring at least 115 points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in games played since 2018. The Magic are 24-76 ATS for 24% when allowing 115 or more points and with the foe having the better assist-to-turnover ratio since 2018.

Heat vs Raptors
8-Unit best bet on the Miami Heat plus the 3.5 points
Betting on road teams that are coming off a double-digit home loss and lost to the current foe in their previous same-season meeting have gone a solid 162-100-3 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 7 seasons and 107-64-2 ATS over their past five seasons. This set of parameters has produced profits for nine consecutive seasons.

From the predictive model, the Heat are 44-5 ATS for 90% winning bets when scoring 110 or more points and holding their opponent to 46% or lower shooting in games played over the past five seasons.

Celtics vs Wizards
8-Unit bet on the Celtics minus the 11.5 points
Betting on road favorites that are coming off a 20 or more-point win and facing a foe that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a solid 79-42-2 ATS for 65.3 % winning bets since 2015. If the game is taking place after the all-star break the record has gone 34-18 ATS for 65.4% winning bets and if after the break and priced as double-digit favorites 7-3 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

From the predictive model the Celtics are 80-18-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 117 or more points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past five seasons.

Houston Rockets vs NY Knicks
8-Unit bet on the Rockets plus the 12.5 points

Betting on teams that have lost their last three games all on the road and playing on back-to-back nights has gone 52-22-1 ATS for 70.3% winners over the past 7 seasons. If our weary team is facing a team with a winning record, they soar to 24-8 ATS for 75% winning bets. 

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers
8-Unit best bet on the Mavericks +1 point or the money line whichever is cheaper for you.
Betting on teams that are coming off back-to-back losses priced as the favorite and facing a foe that that lost to in the previous same-season meeting, priced between the 3’s and with a total between 225 and 235 points have gone 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2017. 

Chicago vs Portland 
8-Unit best bet on the Bulls minus 2 points 
Betting on losing record favorites after going under the total by 30 or more points in total spanning their last three games, facing a losing record foe, and with the game occurring in the second half of the season has earned a 62-30-1 ASTS record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our losing record favorite is on the road, the record goes to 23-7-1 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings 
8-Unit best bet on the Suns plus 4.5 points 
Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, has a winning record and taking on a winning record opponent has produced a 189-125-6 ATS record good for 60% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the total is 235 or more points, our team improves to 15-6 ATS for 75% winning bets.  
 

Milwaukee Bucks vs Utah Jazz 
8-Unit best bet on the Bucks minus the 9 points 
 

Betting on road favorites coming off a 20 or more-point win and facing a foe that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has produced a 92-28 SU record and 76-42-2 ATS mark good for 64.4% winning bets since 2015. If the foe has scored and allowed 105 or more points in each of their last three games, the record improves to 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets. If the total is priced at 230 or more points, our favorites have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets.  

Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz 
8-Unit best bet on the Trail Blazers plus the 5 points 

Check out this amazing betting algorithm that has earned a highly profitable 33-6 ATS record for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. This algorithm has gone 4-1 ATS this season, 17-2 ATS in 2021-22 season, 7-2 ATS in the 2020-21 season, 1-0 ATS in the 2019-20 season, and 4-1 ATS in the 2018-19 season. One of the main reasons this system has done so well relates directly to the steady increase in NBA scoring over the past five seasons.  
 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently at 3.5 points. 
Betting on road favorites that lost the previous meeting against the current opponent and are coming off a hoe loss, playing with one day of rest exact has earned a 45-24 ATS record for 65.2% winning bets since 2015. If the previous loss is the same opponent (home-away) then the record soars to 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game takes place after the all-star break, the record is 18-7 ATS for 72% winning bets. If our bet is a favorite of no more than 6.5 points they have gone 15-5 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. 
 
The Bulls are just 4-13-1 ATS when facing a top-rated opponent that has won between 60 and 80% of their games with the game taking place in the second half of the season.  
 

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies 
8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the 13.5 points 
Betting on road teams that lost their last meeting to the current opponent and are coming off a double-digit home loss have earned a 106-64-2 ATS record good for 62.4% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our game is taking place after the all-star break the record improves to 48-24-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2018. If our dog has won 30% or fewer of their games on the season, the record moves higher to 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets 

San Antonio Spurs vs Milwaukee Bucks  
8-Unit best bet on the Bucks –17.5 points 
Betting on home favorites playing on two or more days of rest, coming off a win in which 40% or more of their points came from made 3-pointers, and hosting a foe that is playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 24-11 ATS record good for 69% winning bets. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record soars to 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets.  
 

Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards 
8-Unit best bet on the Nuggets minus 7 points. 
Bettig on favorites between 3.5 and 7.5 points, has seen their last three games play Under by a combined total of 30 or more points, and the game is taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 125-73-6 ATS record for 63% wining bets over the past five seasons. Drilling down a bit further, if the total is 225 or more points and our team is playing on at least one day of rest, the record becomes quite impressive at 48-23-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. 

Tuesday March 21, 2023 
Pistons vs Hawks 
8-Unit best bet on Pistons plus the points, currently 12.5 

Betting on road teams, who lost the previous meeting to the current opponent and are coming off a double-digit home loss have gone 73-101 SU (42%) and 108-64-2 ATS (63%) since 2018 (last five seasons). If the game is taking place after the all-star break, the record improves to 48-23-1 for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. The P-Value for this set of parameters is outstanding at 0.000062. The closer the P-Value gets to absolute zero the stronger the correlation the listed parameters relate to ATS wins.  

Tuesday, March 21, 2023 

Tampa Bay vs Montreal 
8-Unit best bet on Tampa Bay using the puck line, currently priced at  
TB is 35-6 making 20 units using the puck line when facing a struggling team that is outscored by their foes by at least 0.5 goals per game in games played over the past two seasons. Montreal is 0-8 on the puck line losing 10 units following two consecutive games in which 8 or more goals were scored in each one spanning the past three seasons. Montreal is 1-10 on the puck line losing 14 units in home games after returning from a 3 or more-game road trip spanning the past two seasons. 

TCU vs Gonzaga 
8-Unit best bet on TCU plus the 4.5 points 

Here again, you can opt to bet 70% preflop plus the points and then look to add 30% money line at any price of +300 or better during the first half only.  

TCU has shot poorly recently and have played Under their team total by more than 20 points over their last 5 games. They are facing a team in Gonzaga that has struggled defensively this season and has also played Over their team totals by 15 points over their last five games. In the NCAA Tournament, teams that have played Under their team total by 20 or more points over their last five games and facing a foe that has played Over their team total by 15 or more points has seen the team, in this case, TCU, go 29-12 SU and 27-13-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If it is a Round of 32 matchup, our team has gone 10-4 ATS for 71% winners and 3-0 ATS if priced as the underdog. 
Gonzaga ranks 357th of the 363 teams in consistency ratings and this makes Gonzaga extremely vulnerable to a significant regression after shooting 50% from the field in each of their past two games. We have a team in TCU that ranks 11th in second chance scoring in the nation matched up against Gonzaga, who ranks 105th nationally in this category defensively.  

From the predictive model, TCU is 40-12 ATS for 77% winners when getting 10 or more offensive rebounds and shooting at least 48% from the field and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners if priced as a dog of 6.5 or fewer points.  

Indiana vs Miami (FLA) 

8-Unit bet on Indiana using the money line 
Miami head coach Larranaga is just 12-25 ATS when playing their second road game in three days.  
From the predictive model, Indiana is 19-2 SU (91%) and 15-4-1 ATS in games scoring 75 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. Miami is 14-17 SU and 11-19-1 ATS for 37% when allowing 75 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past three seasons.  

Florida Atlantic vs FDU 
8-Unit best bet on FAU minus 15.5 points 
4-Unit bet UNDER the total currently at 149 points. 
I suggest not betting this total preflop and instead look to get 50% of your 4-Unit amount at 154.5 points and another 25% at 147.5 points and the remaining 25% at 159.5 points during the first half of action only. The probability is quite high that the 154.5 price tag will be made available during the first half of the action given FAU’s outstanding offense that ranks 25th nationally averaging 78 PPG and 22nd nationally with a 55% effective field goal percentage. FAU is the best nationally sporting a 0.635 assist-to-turnover defensive ratio, but FDU does their scoring without significant ball movement as they rank 150th nationally with a 0.515 assist-to-field goal made ratio.  
I would stay away from any parlay bet. 

In the NCAA Tournament, a matchup of teams that has have beaten the spread by 55 or more points over their last 10 games have gone 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets and 16-8-2 Under for 67% winning bets.  

St. Mary’s vs UCONN 
8-Unit Best Bet on ST. Mary’s +3.5 points 
STM is 15-7 ATS when facing teams that are attempting 21 or more 3-point shots per game. STM is 22-12-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 129.5 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons. UCONN head coach Hurley is just 7-19 ATS away from home and has won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  
From the predictive model, STM is 28-2 SU and 22-6 ATS in games in which they scored 72 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. 

Maryland vs Alabama  
8-Unit bet on Maryland plus the 8.5 points, which could move to 9 points by the time I am done writing this research. From the predictive model, Maryland is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when shooting at least 44% from the field, getting 38 or more rebounds and committing 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 10 seasons. In the NCAA Tournament any team that meets or exceeds these performance measures has earned a 62-13-2 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the past 15 tournaments and 20-4 ATS for 83% winners in the last three Tournaments. 

Auburn vs Houston 

8-Unit Bet on Auburn plus 5.5 points and sprinkle the money line if at any point Auburn is trailing by double-digits during the first half of action. 
Auburn is a solid 25-11 ATS when facing a foe that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played over the past two seasons and 20-10 ATS when facing a solid shooting foe making 45% or more of their shots on the season over the past two seasons. From the predictive model, Auburn is 59-25-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when scoring 70 or more points and having the better more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games splayed over the past five seasons. 
 
Northwestern vs UCLA 
8-Unit bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 126.5 points. 
Betting over in a neutral court setting with a total between 120 and 129.5 points, with one of the teams, Northwestern coming off two consecutive games committing 11 or fewer turnovers and facing a foe that has committed 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 70-39-4 Over record good for 64% winning bets.  

UCLA shot 54% from the field and allowed 37% shooting in their 86-53 win over UNC-Ashville. Teams that had a FG% differential of 15% or more in their last NCAA Tournament game have seen the OVER go 15-8-1 ATS for 65% winning bets.  

From the predictive model, UCLA is 11-5 Over the total when getting 42 or more rebounds, shooting 47% or better form the field, and committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  

Auburn vs Houston 
8-Unit Bet on Auburn plus 5.5 points and sprinkle the money line if at any point Auburn is trailing by double-digits during the first half of action. 
Auburn is a solid 25-11 ATS when facing a foe that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played over the past two seasons and 20-10 ATS when facing a solid shooting foe making 45% or more of their shots on the season over the past two seasons. From the predictive model, Auburn is 59-25-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when scoring 70 or more points and having the better more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games splayed over the past five seasons. 

Arkansas vs Kansas 

8-Unit bet on Penn Arkansas plus the points, currently at 3.5 points. I suggest sprinkling the money line if Arkansas gets down double-digits in the first half of action.  
First, doesn’t this line look a bit curious with a No.1 seed Kansas squad favored by just 3.4 points against an Arkansas squad sporting a 21-13 overall record? Dogs of 5 or fewer points facing the No.1 seed in the Region from the Round of 32 on out to the Final Four have earned a 27-14 ATS record for 67% winning bets.  
Dogs of 2.5 to 7.5 points playing in the Round of 32, has achieved an excellent free throwsattempted to field goals attempted of at least .35 and facing a foe that has won at least three more games for the season has gone 12-5-1 ATS for 71% winning bets.  
Arkansas is 16-7 ATS following a double-digit win after game number 20 of the regular season over the past five seasons and if a dog, 6-1 ATS. 

From the predictive model, Arkansas is 17-4 ATS for 81% winning bets over the past five seasons when shooting 47% or better from the field and getting 34 to 39 rebounds.  
 
 

Duke vs Tennessee 
8-Unit best bet on Tennessee plus the points 
Duke ranks 3rd in excessive performance measures of the remaining teams in the Tournament and prone to regression on both ends of the court. Tennessee escaped in their opening round game defeating LA-Lafayette 58-55 as 11.5-point favorites. They did a terrible job handling the ball with 18 turnovers, but dogs in the NCAA Tournament that committed 18 or more turnovers in their previous win are 16-11 ATS for 59% winners.  

Betting on neutral dogs of 3.5 to 6. points in a matchup between Major Conference teams has earned a solid 36-24 ATS record good for 60% winning bets. If our dog has won just five or fewer games over their last 10 games, they have gone on to earn a 69% ATS record 22-10 ATS. 

From the predictive model, Duke is just 25-70-1 ATS for 26% when scoring 75 or fewer points and shooting no better than 45% from the field over the past 10 seasons. Plus, 6-18 ATS (33%) over the past three seasons priced as the favorite and scoring 75 or fewer points and shooting 45% or worse from the field.  

Kent State vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on Indiana minus the 4.5 points 
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that is seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament and is on a four or more-game win streak has earned a 39-18 ATS record for 68.4% winning bets over the past 15 NCAA Tournaments. If our team has recorded a season-to-date offensive efficiency rating of between 95 and 112 points per 100 possessions, they record improves to 33-12-1 ATS for 73% winners. If we dive deeper into the database and isolate teams that have posted a pace of at least 68, the record soars to 26-9-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. 

Kent State is 6-16 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the past 25 events.  
From the predictive analytics, we expect Indiana to make 48% of all shots and make at least 38% from beyond the arc. Indiana is 27-12 ATS (69%) when shooting at least 48% from the field in all games played over the past three seasons. Indiana is 16-6 ATS (73%) last 3 seasons in games in which they made at least 48% fo their shots and at least 38% from beyond the arc. Kent State is 2-8 ATS last three seasons allowing 48% shooting and 38% shooting from beyond the arc.  

Kansas State vs Montana State 
8-Unit Best bet on Kansas State minus the 7.5/8 points and is good up to 9.5 points.  
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the Round of 64 facing a foe that is seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament and is on a four or more-game win streak has earned a 24-13-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 15 NCAA Tournaments. If our game is one of the more popular games and betting volume for spread and money line bets is 11,000 or more in total, then our favorite soars to 35-11 for 76% ATS winners. So, far there have been 56,000 bets made on this matchup, Montana State is on an 8-game win streak and seeded 14. 
K-State is 10-2 ATS when facing a foe that has won between 60 and 80% of their games after the 15th game in each of the past two seasons. They are also 7-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more games spanning the past two seasons. Teams that are on a two or more-game losing streak entering the NCAA Tournament and priced as favorites of 6 or more points are a solid 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU. 

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis 
Friday, March 17, 2023 
Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament 
Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH 
8-Unit Best Bet on Florida Atlantic  

No matter what conference a team resides in, a season winning 30 or more games is always impressive and Florida Atlantic posted a 31-3 SU mark and 21-10-1 ATS mark with two games played having no posted betting lines. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments dogs that have won 30 or more games are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS so Memphis may be caught basking in their glory of upsetting No.1 ranked Houston in their previous game. 
     FAU is 7-1 ATS after two straight games allowing 65 or fewer points. Memphis is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread I two or more straight games this season. Memphis is 4-7-1 ATS following an excellent game in which they shot 50% from the field and allowed 33% or lower shooting in games played over the past five seasons. Memphis head coach Hardaway is a money-burning 9-20 ATS following three games in which this team scored 75 or more points.  

     From the predictive model, we are looking for FAU to score 75 or more points and have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which they have met these performance measures has led them to an amazing 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS mark for 81% winning bets since the 2015 season.  
     Last, consider the in-game betting strategy that I plan to use by placing 60% preflop on FAU plus the points and then adding 30% at FAU +5.5 and 10% at +350 using the money line.  
 
 

Providence vs Kentucky 
8-Unit bet on Providence plus 4 points. 
Kentucky is 1-8 ATS when facing strong shooting teams making 45% or more of their shots this season. Providence is 21-10 ATS when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 4 or more PPG in games played over the past two seasons. Providence head coach Cooley is 12-4 ATS following three consecutive losses to conference foes. 

From the predictive model, Providence is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS when scoring 82 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons.  

Iona vs UCONN 
8-Unit Bet on UCONN minus the points, currently at 9 and is good up to 11 points. Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that is seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament and is on a four or more-game win streak has earned a 39-18 ATS record for 68.4% winning bets over the past 15 NCAA Tournaments. If our favorite has recorded a defensive efficiency rating between 84 and 100, the record improves to 29-11-1 ATS for 73% winners. UCONN has a solid defensive efficiency rating of 93.2 for the season. Iona is on a 14-game win streak. 

The predictive analytics show us that UCONN is 20-5 ATS for 80% winners when scoring 75 or more points and out rebounding their foes by double digits over the past three seasons.  
 

Celtics vs Timberwolves 

10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Celtics minus the points, currently at –5 points. 

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outscoring their foes by at least 3 PPG and facing a host that was leading by 20 or more points at the half of their previous game has earned a highly profitable 45-15 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 2004. This betting system is one of the best ones you will ever find as the parameters have a very strong P-Value (JR-Value) of .000067 and the close a P-Value gets to absolute zero the stronger the correlation of the game-dependent parameters becomes. 
From the predictive model, the Celtics are 56-10 SU and 51-15 ATS when scoring 117 or more-points and making 80% or more of their shots from the charity stripe in games played over the past three seasons. 
 

Texas A&M vs Alabama 
SEC Championship Game 
8-Unit Bet on Alabama minus the points and is good up to 9.5, although it won’t get there by game time. Teams that are favored in conference tournaments that lost two same-season games to the foe, and with that foe shooting higher percentage over their last three games than their season-to-date shooting average and with both teams play on back-to-back days has seen them go 24-8 SU and 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets.  
 
Alabama is on a 14-4-1 ATS streak when coming off a double-digit win and 7-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back double-digit wins this season. 
 
 

Princeton vs Yale 
8-Unit bet on Yale –3 points 
8-Unit Bet UNDER 140 points 
Interesting to note that Yale is the home team despite playing on Princeton’s home court at Jadwin Gymnasium in Princeton, NJ. This does make the line a bit cheaper and adds value to backing Yale in this spot to win and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. 
This season, the Ancient Eight saw Princeton and Yale tie for the regular season Championship with Princeton getting to host their version of the Final Four. To their credit they get the IVY League Tournament done in just 2 days on a weekend.  

I suggest betting no more than a 2.5-unit amount on the parlay and would encourage you to wait till the game starts and look to get Yale at pick-em and the Under at 146.5 or more points during the first half of action. Perhaps 1.5 units parlay preflop and then 1 more unit in-game.  
 
Princeton lost at Yale 87-65 back on January 28 as 3-point dogs and lost at home in overtime 93-83 as 1.5-point favorites. Dogs of 3.5 or fewer points playing in a conference tournament, having lost two same season games to the foe, who has covered the spread in at least three consecutive games have seen the Under go 20-7 for 74% winners.  

Dogs that are playing in their conference tournament and that lost two same season games to the current foe, with a total between 135 and 145 points and with that foe averaging a higher shooting percentage over their last three games than what they shot for the season have gone just 18-27 ATS for 40%. 
 

Xavier vs Marquette

8-Unit best bet on Xavier plus the two points
Betting on any team priced between the threes and they scored 75 or more points in each of the last two games and are facing an opponent coming off two consecutive wins by 6 or fewer points has earned an outstanding 43-22-1 against the spread for 66.2% winning bets over the last five seasons. If in a conference tournament, these teams are 6-1 SUATS for 86% over the past 5 seasons. This will be the first time for Xavier to return to the NCAA Tournament and they will be attractively priced as a bet to make the Elite-8. So, keep that in mind.

Texas vs Kansas
8-Unit bet on the Texas Longhorns plus 1.5 points and if the line goes to +1 or pick, then take the cheaper price3 between the money line and the +1 spread. 
Big 12 Tournament Championship Game at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO
From the predictive model we learn that Texas is a solid 10-1 SUATS when making at least 80% of their free throw shots and scoring 75 or more points in games played over the past three seasons. Kansas is just 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS when allowing 75 or more points and the foe made at least 80% of their free throws in games played over the past three seasons.

Fordham vs Dayton
8-Unit best bet on the Fordham Rams plus the 6.5 points
From the predictive model, we expect Fordham to score 65 or more points and have 11 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Fordham met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 17-4 straight up record for 81% wins and 19-2 against the spread for 91% winning bets over the past three seasons.
 This game will start approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first semifinal game between VCU and Saint Louis. Quisenberry’s 22 points led Fordham past LaSalle in their last game. He  also contributed six rebounds for the Rams (25-7). Khalid Moore scored 20 points while shooting 6 for 14 (2 for 5 from 3-point range) and 6 of 8 from the free throw line, and added 11 rebounds. Will Richardson was 4 of 7 shooting (2 for 4 from distance) to finish with 10 points. One of the keys to fornham winning this game is to force the tempo to be faster which is something that Dayton does not do well in. Date and ranked 345th of 363 Division One basketball programs in pace of play averaging just 64.31 possessions per game. Fordham ranks 42nd in the nation averaging 70.6 possessions per game. Fordham is 25-1 and 20-5-1 against the spread for 80% winning bets when scoring 65 or more points in games played this season. Slicing the data a bit further we find that Fordham is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread when scoring between 65 and 69 points in games played this season.

Penn State vs Northwestern 
8-Unit best bet on Penn State plus the 1.5 points. 

The following situational algorithm has earned a 15-8 SU record and 20-3 ATS record for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and requires a bet on neutral court teams, PSU, that defeated the current opponent as an underdog and with that foe coming off a double digit road win. If our team is the dog, the record goes to an incredible 15-1 ATS for 94% winning bets.  
 
 

North Texas vs UAB 
8-Unit best bet on UAB money line or any dog line of +1.5 or more.  
Betting on teams lined between a 3.5-point dog and favorite in conference tournament games that are facing a foe that led their last three games at the half by a total of 30 or more points and our team has scored a total of 240 or more points over their last three games has earned an 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 
This matchup is a semifinal game in the Conference USA Tournament being held at the Ford Center at the Star and set to tip at 2:00 EST. The betting line opened with UAB priced as a 1-point underdog and early flows suggest that the line could go to +1.5 points. The money line flows will shift more to UAB at +1.5 points and there is not enough market strength to push the line past +2. Moreover, the early start limits the amount of time remaining for any steam to come in on North Texas.  
Over the past three seasons, UAB is on a solid 22-11 ATS win streak when facing a free throw shooting team making 72% or more of those shots from the stripe. North Texas is just 2-10 ATS coming off back-to-back blowout wins by 20 or more points. 
From the predictive playbook we learn that UAB is 39-2 SU and 22-9-2 ATS for 71% in games in which they had fewer turnovers and more rebounds than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. 

Ohio State vs Michigan State 
8-Unit best bet on MSU minus the 4.5 points 
OSU has won four of their last five games and covered five straight to the number but looks like the season ends this afternoon. In conference tournament games, betting on a team that had at least one BYE and taking on a losing record foe that is playing on back-to-back days and has covered the spread by at least 25 points has earned a 16-8-1 ATS record for 67% winners. If the foe has covered the spreads by at least 35 points, the record goes to 9-3-1 ATS for 75% winners and are 25-1 straight-up (SU). OSU has covered the spread by 43 points over their past 5 games, so the market now has over valued them. 

Villanova vs Creighton 
8-Unit best bet on Villanova plus the points, currently 5 points. I like betting 60% preflop and then looking to get ‘Nova +9.5 points in-game for the remaining 40% bet amount. 
Betting on teams that defeated the opponent as a dog in their earlier meeting and is coming off a double-digit road win has earned a 39-14 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our team is priced as a dog of not more than 8 points, the record has been 15-9 ATS over the past three seasons. 

From the predictive model, Villanova is 7-1 SUATS as a dog, hitting 80% or more of their shots from the charity stripe, and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past 5 seasons. 

LaSalle vs Fordham 
8-Unit best bet on the Fordham Rams minus the 6 points 
The following system has earned a highly profitable 23-10 ATS record over the past five seasons. Bet on neutral court favorites in a matchup of teams allowing between 67 and 74 PPG and with the dog coming off back-to-back double-digit wins. Drilling down a bit further we learn that betting on favorites in conference tournament action of 3.5 or more points have gone 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 
Fordham is 20-9 ATS when facing a foe that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played over the past two seasons; 23-7-1 ATS when playing only their second game in the past 7 days in games played over the past two seasons. 

From the predictive mode, we expect Fordham to score 75 or more points and have between 10 and 13 turnovers and when they have achieved this have gone to a 20-3 SU record and 18-4-1 ATS record for 82% winning bets. If they are facing a conference foe an even better 16-3 SU and 12-2-1 ATS record for 86% winning bets. 
 
 

Houston vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on the Houston Rockets plus the 9.5 points and add just a sprinkle to the money line. An alternative betting strategy is keeping the money line bet and use it to bet in game. The current money line is +350 and looking to get +400 in the first quarter or bet the line at +14.5 or more is solid. 

Betting on underdogs that lost the last time the two teams met and shot 40% or lower in that loss and is coming off a home loss by 20 or more points has earned a 24-23 record and 31-16 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is a dog from pick to +10, the record improves to 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets. 

From the predictive mode, we learn that the Rockets are 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in games in which they scored 111 or more points and got at least 50 rebounds in games played over the past three seasons. 

DePaul vs Xavier 
8-Unit best bet on Xavier minus the 12 points 
Betting on double-digit favorites in conference tournaments that are allowing 74 or more PPG and facing a foe that is averaging 75 or fewer points, and the total is bet3ween 150 and 159.5 points have earned an 11-3 ATS record for 79% winning bets.  
 

Colorado State vs San Diego State 
8-Unit best bet on CSU plus the 8.5 points and add a little sprinkle to the money line. 
CSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6.5 to 9.5 points. SDST head coach Dutcher is just 8-17 ATS in games away from home coming off two or more consecutive Under results for his career. 

From the predictive model, CSU is 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when shooting 45% or better from the field, making 77% or better from the charity stripe and committing 12 or fewer turnovers. 

LSU vs Georgia
8-Unit Best Bet on Georgia plus the three points
SEC Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

LSU is 7-20 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of each of the last two seasons. LSU is 5-13 against the spread when facing teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after game #15 in each of the last two seasons. LSU is 2-11 when facing solid ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game after game #15 of this season. LSU head coach McMahon is 3-14 against the spread after five consecutive games in which they forced the opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.

from the predictive model we are expecting Georgia to allow 71 or fewer points and have the better assist the turnover ratio. In past games in which Georgia has met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to earn an outstanding 32-2 SU and 29-4-1 ARS mark good for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Boston College vs UNC

8-Unit bets bet on UNC minus 11.5 points
 consider betting 50% on UNC minus 11 1/2 points preflop and then look for in game at anything South of 6 1/2 points if it's in the second quarter and we haven't added to the 50% pre flop bet and consider higher numbers like 7 1/2 or even 8 1/2 points to complete the bet wager.

North Carolina is 22-10 against the spread after two straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last two seasons.

From the predictive model we are expecting North Carolina to allow no more than 70 points and get at least 43 rebounds. in past games in which North Carolina met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 51-4 SU record and 37-16 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

North Dakota State versus Oral Roberts 

Summit tournament championship game at the Denny Sanford premier center in Sioux Falls. 

North Dakota State is coming off an 89-79 win over South Dakota state priced AS4.5 underdogs. North Dakota State is just 2-9 against the spread after scoring 85 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. World Roberts is 9-1 against the spread when playing only the third game in a week in games played over the last two seasons. North Dakota head coach Richman is 5-14 against the number when facing a team that is scoring 84 or more points per game for his career. 

From the predictive model we are looking for Oral Roberts university to score at least 80 points in this game and have no more than 10 turnovers. North Dakota State is 0-16 straight up and 1-15 against the spread when allowing 80 or more points and forcing 10 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. 

St. Peters vs Fairfield 
Metro Atlantic Tournament - First Round - Boardwalk Hall - Atlantic City, NJ 
8-Unit best Bet on STP plus the 2.5 points 
This line has the chance to move as low as pick-em and if it goes to anything below a 1.5-point dog, consider the money line if it is cheaper than getting the point or if it steams to a –1 point favorite. 
St. Peters is 9-2 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons; 22-12 ATS after three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. STP head coach Mason is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team winning 40 to 49% of their games for his career. 
 
 
From the predictive mode, Fairfield is 14-7 SU and 15-5 ASTS for 75% when allowing 65 or fewer points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. 

UNC-Wilmington vs College of Charleston 
8-Unit best bet on College of Charleston 
Colonial Athletic Tournament - Championship - St. Elizabeths East Entertain 

The College of Charleston is 8-1 against the spread when playing on one or no days of rest this season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when playing only their third game of the past seven days this season. They are also 9-2 against the spread in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread in games played over the last two seasons.Head coach of College of Charleston Kelsey is 16-5 against the spread when playing on one or fewer days of rest over his coaching career. He is also 27-12 in road games after one or more consecutive games that played over the total for his career. Last, he is 35-19 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record for his career. 

From the predictive model we are expecting the College of Charleston to score 77 or more points and make 10 or more 3-point shots in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has seen them go 18-5 straight up and against the spread for 78% winning bets. 

Philadelphia vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers –6.5 points 

The Pacers held off the Chicago Bulls to earn a 125-122 road win Sunday. Haliburton scored a game-high 29 points and 11assists for the Pacers, who have won four of their last six games, covering five of them against-the-spread (ATS). They defeated the Bulls despite allowing 60.8% shooting and now find themselves playing on back-to-back nights.  

The 76ers were down 18 points in the second half and roared back with a dominant 48-41 edge in the fourth quarter to bring a halt to the Bucks 16-game win streak. 

Betting on road favorites of at least 3.5 points that allowed 50% opponent shooting in each of their least past two games and facing a foe coming off a win by three or fewer points has earned 6-1 SU and ATS record for 86% winning bets since 2017. 76ers allowed 57.7% shooting in a 133-126 loss at Dallas and then most recently allowed 50% shooting in their 133-130 win over the Bucks. 

The 76ers are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS (67%) winning bets when playing with more days of rest than the opponent, coming off a road win and now priced as a road favorite. Home dogs of at least 6 points, like the Pacers, that have lost four consecutive games against the current opponent, playing on back-to-back nights after the all-star break, with that foe winning at least 60% of their games in the current season have gone just 17-33-2 ATS for 33%. 

UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra 
8-Unit Best bet on UNC-Wilmington plsu the points, currently priced at +7.5 points. 
UNCW head coach Sidle is 14-3 ATS in road games playing with no more than a single day of rest; 16-4 ATS coming off a six or fewer points; 21-6 ATS when facing a foe that is making eight or more 3-point shots per game.  

The predictive metrics are looking for Hofstra to score 70 or fewer points and for UNCW to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games, in which UNCW met these performance measures has earned a 17-1 SU record and a 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past three seasons.  

San Francisco vs Santa Clara 

West Coast Tournament - Quarterfinals - Orleans Arena - Paradise, NV 
8-Unit best bet on Santa Clara minus the three points 
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s in a conference tournament, and has had at least 5 days rest, won at least 60% of their games on the season and facing a foe that has won between 45 and 55% of their games on the season has earned a 20-10 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. 
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and had at least a first-round BYE (more than 5 days of rest) in their conference tournament and is facing a foe playing on back-to-back days has earned a 39-15-3 ATS record for 72% winning bets. 
 

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet on Alabama getting 2 points. 

The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. 
Alabama fought back from a 17-point deficit in the second half against Auburn by using a 16-0 run that started with about 12 minutes left in the game. With Jahvon Quinerly leading the way with 24 points, Alabama coach Nate Oats saw his club win 90-85 in overtime and end up cutting down the nets to celebrate its second SEC regular-season title in three years. It was the third consecutive close shave by the Crimson Tide and star freshman Brandon Miller. Alabama has won four straight, with the last three decided by a total of 10 points. 

Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points.  

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet Under the posted total of 150 points 
Betting the Under in a game lined between the 3’s, the road team has allowed 80 or more points in their last two games, and is facing a host that has scored 70 or fewer and allowed 70 or fewer over their last three games has earned a 26-8 Under record for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system is 4-0 over the past two seasons and only 2020 was a losing money one when it went 1-0 Over.  
For in-game betting place 50% preflop at the best price you are offered and then look to add another 50% at 162.5 points full fame and only during the first half of action. If they get out to a slow start, then don’t add anymore to the bet.  

For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. 
 

Nebraska versus Michigan State

8 unit best bet on Nebraska plus the four points.

Michigan State is 0-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after the midway point of this season. Michigan State is also 15-31 against the spread in road games when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60% of their games after the 15th game of the season spanning the last 25 seasons.

from the predictive model Nebraska is expected to shoot between 48 and 52% in this game. Michigan State is just 4-18 against the spread when their opponents make 48 to 52% of their shots in games played over the last three seasons. Over the past 25 seasons, Nebraska is 110-44 against the spread when they shoot 48 to 52% from the field.

Brooklyn Nets hosting the Milwaukee Bucks

8 unit best bet on the net plus the points.

Since the trade that sent All Star Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns the Nets have had time to rebuild their lineup which has the potential to play much better down the stretch. The bucks have won fourteen consecutive games and are now at 43 wins and 17 losses for the season. He had come from behind to get the last win against the Phoenix Suns at home price says 2 1/2 point favorites in a game in which they shot just 43.7% from the field and were outrebounded 55-45 in the game. 

The predictive model sees Brooklyn having a great shot to win the game and end the 14 game win streak of the bucks tonight at the Barclay center. The Nets are expected to shoot better than 48% from the field tonight and that is certainly good news. Milwaukee over the last three seasons is just 20-45 against the spread when allowing 48% or higher shooting. The Nets are also 66-30 against the spread in games in which they score 115 or more points. Bet the Nets.

Wake Forest vs BC

8-Unit bet on Wake Forest minus 8 points

Wake Forest is one of the better teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season averaging 77.5 points per game which also ranks 32nd best nationally. They have outscored their opponents by 3.6 points per game as compared to Boston College getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. Boston College has a .992 assist to turnover ratio ranking 199th in the nation. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage in ball handling even though they rank 117th in assist the turnover ratio at 1.101. 

Week four is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage as compared to beat Boston colleges 226th ranking an opponent effective field goal percentage. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage on the offensive end and I think they win this game comfortably by 10 or more points.

Wake Forest is 10-1 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. They are also 20-8-1 against the spread when facing teams that are attempting 18 or fewer free throws per game in all games played over the last two seasons. Boston College is a miserable 8-20 against the spread after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last three seasons.

Rutgers vs Penn State 

8-Unit best bet on Penn State minus the 3 points.  

The following betting algorithm has earned a 45-28-3 ASTS record for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: 

The game is lined between the 3’s 

The team we are betting on is coming off two road wins 

The opponent is coming off a home loss to a conference foe 

If our team is favored by 4.5 or fewer points including pick-em, they are 45-25-3 ATS for 65% wins and if a conference matchup, our team is 44-23-3 ATS for 67% wins. 

Penn State has the third most efficient offense in the nation. For instance, they rank 3rd with a 1.671 assist-to-turnover ratio and 5th best with a 56.3% effective field goal percentage. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the Big Tenand nationally.Rutgers ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense allowing 59.8 points per game and7th best allowing a 45.2% effective field goal percentage. Penn State's perimeter game that ranks 7th best nationally making 39.2% of their shots from beyond the arc and even higher in their home games they'll stretch the Rutgers defense out far too much from the paint area. This will open up cutters down the baseline for easy layups and dunks. 

Suns vs Bucks
8-Unit best bet on the Suns plus the 3.5 points.

5-Unit Over the total (optional)

Suns are 5-1 ATS in road games with a total of 230 or more points this season. 16-3 Over in this situation since 2020. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Suns to score at least 115 points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. They currently have the fourth best in the NBA for the 2022 season, a 1.92. In past road games in which the Suns met or exceeded these performance measures have seen them go 35-5 SU and 29-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past three seasons. Milwaukee ranks a distant 25th with a 1.656 assist-to-turnover ratio. So, we re going with the much better ball-handling team in a short-lined game – meaning priced between the 3’s.

Over the last two seasons, the Phoenix Suns are 35-20 against the spread when facing a strong passing team that averages 23 or more assists per game and games played in the second half of the season spanning the last two seasons. 

Iowa vs Northwestern 

8-Unit Best bet on Iowa using the spread or money line. Bettor’s choice 

NW is 5-21 ATS in home games coming off a home win over a conference rival. NW has won four straight and covered the spread in each one and most recently defeated Indiana 64-62 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Somehow, they shot just 37% from the field and had 12 more shot attempts than Indiana in that win. That won’t be the case here against Iowa, who likes to get the pace up ranking 80-th nationally of the 363 D-1 teams, while NW ranks 261st in pace of play. Further, NW is 2-10 ATS in home games coming off a home win of three or fewer points. 

Tulsa vs Temple 

8-Unit bet on Tulsa University plus the 14 points 

Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that the total has played Under by 30 or more points over their past five games, and going up against a favorite that is coming off a humbly type of game losing to the spread by 18 or more points has earned a 30-10-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Ohio State vs Purdue 

8-Unit Bet on Ohio State plus the double-digits and you know, why not sprinkle the money line just a bit.  

Yes, it is a reach to expect OSU to pull off a shocking road win after the stretch of 12 games they have endured. Still, they are outscoring their opponents too, which is mind-blowing. They average 74 PPG and surrender 67.3 PPG for the season. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which is 3% better than Purdue and average the same number of made 3’s as Purdue at 7 per game. So, I can’t pass up, this opportunity to take on a pure bread program that is vastly underrated now by the markets.  

My predictive models have sounded off all the alarms and sometimes a bet that looks like an ugly dog with fleas oftentimes does turn out to be the real deal and can play with a sense of pride and ‘moxy’. 

Bet on road teams that are coming off two consecutive losses by 15 or more points and in a matchup of even offenses averaging 67 to 75 PPG on the season has earned a 65-36-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. 

North Dakota State vs Oral Roberts (8 ET) 

8-Unit bet on North Dakota State plus the 14 points 

Betting on double-digit road underdogs that have allowed 33% shooting to their previous opponent and now facing a hot shooting team making at least 47% of their shots in each of their past three games has earned an incredible 37-16 ASTS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 

8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points 

Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half.  

Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 

8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points 

Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half.  

Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech 5 EST 

8-Unit Bet on Virginia Tech minus the 5 points 

Did you know that teams that have won 70% or more of their games against the spread in games played in February and March are 2-12 SUATS for 14% over the past 10 seasons? Pittsburgh is the only team currently over 70% ATS wins this season and are at 73% ATS right now. 

Pittsburgh head coach Capel III is just 13-28 ATS in the second half of the season when taking on a team that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts for his career; 5-12 ATS when facing an excellent ball handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles 

10-Unit 5% Max Best bet on the Eagles 

From my Predictive Models, 85% probability that Eagles score 28 and have same or fewer turnovers. Teamsin Super Bowls are 10-3 SUATS | 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS for Eagles last three seasons. Chiefs are 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS 27% when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers last three seasons. 

 
Further down in this report, you will see the Live in-game sports bets that will help create a plan of action. I do like the betting strategy of putting down 50% preflop on the Eagles money line –120, then look for, or almost hope for the Chiefs to score a TD first. If that occurs, add 2 more units in-game, and if the Eagles blow a lead and are trailing or tied at that point, add the remaining 2 units.  
 
Another fact is that the average number of lead changes in the past 21 Super Bowls has been 3.65. There have been 7 of the past 21 that a team never had the lead. Tose games are in a spreadsheet in the attached document. However, this game has the potential for as many as 5 or even more lead changes. So, bet no more than 1 unit any time a team blows a lead. You will be creating a solid arbitrage betting on both teams and with lines highly better than what you are getting right now preflop.  
  If a team goes up 7-0 and the opponent answers to make it 7-7, that is a blown lead by definition in my database and you would then bet the team that blew the 7-0 lead. I would be careful adding any type of in-game bet if a team is down two or more scores. 

Last, I recommend an OVER bet if the first quarter ends up showing fewer than 10 points scored and will recommend an 8-unit bet if the quarter ends 0-0 or 3-0. There have been five Super Bowls in which the first quarter ended 0-0. The Over In-Game line is 5-0 and the pre flop Over is 4-1, which implies betting OVER 2nd quarter, and full-game OVER in-game line. 

This a rather comprehensive list of situational trends and angles that support the bet on the Eagles 

Teams that scored 30 or more points in their two previous playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl are 7-1 SUATS inn the Super Bowl 

The League MVP is just 6-15 SU and 5-15-1 ATS and 0-7 ATS last 20 Super Bowls | The last League-MVP to win a Super Bowl was Curt Warner and “The Best Show on Turf” LA Rams in 1999 | Since then, League-MVP’s are 0-9 SU and ATS | Works against Mahomes and the Chiefs 

Teams lined between 2.5-point-favorites and 2.5-point dogs that had the better defensive yards per point allowed for the season went on to a 5-0 SU and ATS record and 3-2 Over-Under – Favors Eagles 

Teams that scored in every quarter of their conference championship win have seen the Under go 13-7 (65%) in the Super Bowl| Chiefs and Eagles have scored in every quarter. 

Teams that scored in every quarter of their previous two playoff games has seen that team go just 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 over-Under | Favors Eagles 

The team that averaged more points scored in the third quarter are 4-8 SU (33%), 3-9 ATS (25%) and 5-7 O-U |If the total is 50 or more, the higher scoring third quarter team is 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 O-U | Favors Eagles 

Team is the favorite and has won three of their last four games and facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has produced a 37-14 ATS record since 2010; 33-12 SU and 30-13-2 ATS 70% since 2013; 66-34-3 ATS, 73-30 SU (71%) since 1989 From Week 12 on and includes the playoffs 

The team with the lower offensive yards-per-play average is 16-5 SU, 14-7 ATS, and 9-12 O-U | Eagles 

LIVE in-game Super Bowl Betting 

Dogs that scored first went on to a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS record with a 5-5 Over-Under 

Dogs that scored a touchdown first went on to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record and 3-4 O-U 

Teams that had more rushing attempts in the SB have gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and 9-12 O-U |  

Teams that had more rushing attempts and with the total at 50 or more points has gone 6-1 SUATS and 1-6 O-U 86% under bets.  

Teams that had more rushing attempts and passes are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS (77%) and 5-8 O-U 

Teams that had fewer passes went onto a 14-7 SYATS record and 9-12 O-U 43% 

Teams that had fewer passes, but more rushes went on a 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS. 5-8 Over-Under 

Teams that had scored 17 or more points by half time and ended the game with the same or fewer turnovers went on to a 7-SUATS record and 7-1 O-U 

Favorites that exceeded their team totals went 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, and 9-11 O-U 

Dogs that exceeded their team total went 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71%) and 9-12 (43%) 

UC-Santa Barbara vs Long beach State 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Santa Barbara using the money line or –1 point, whichever you prefer. 

UCSB is 7-1 ATS when facing a good defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or lower this season; 17-6-1 ATS in road games coming off three consecutive conference games spanning the past three seasons. LBST is just 20-27-1 ATS in home games following a game in which they allowed 85 or more points over the past 10 seasons. UCSB head coach Pasternack is 16-4 ATS when facing an offense scoring 77 or more PPG for his coaching career.  

Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Lakers 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Bucks minus the points, currently priced at -6 

Betting on road favorites of between 3.5 and 9.5 points in the month of February, has a win percentage between 60 and 75% and taking on a foe that that has won 40 to 50% of their games has earned a 41-10-1 ATS record for 80.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This betting algorithm has never had a losing season and that is pretty good – no, pretty damn good.  

Fordham vs Richmond 
4% 8-Unit bet on Fordham plus the points, currently at 4 points 
 
Road dogs that have won 7 or more games and with the game occurring in the second half of the season has earned a 69-43-2 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our road dog is priced at 3.5 or more points, they soar to a 23-7-1 ASTS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  
 

Charlotte vs Chicago 
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago Bulls minus the points, currently priced as 6-point home favorites. 
 
Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have played Under the total by 30 or more points spanning their last three games, has a win percentage between 40 to 49% om the season and facing a losing record team has earned an outstanding 35-9-3 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards 
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Wizards minus 4-points 
 
Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have played Under the total by 30 or more points spanning their last three games, has a win percentage between 40 to 49% om the season and facing a losing record team has earned an outstanding 35-9-3 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. Same system as the one supporting the bet on the Bulls. 
 
 

New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwauke Bucks 
8 ET 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans plus the points, currently +9.5 points 

Betting on a winning record road team that lost the previous meeting to the current opponent and is coming off a dreadful double-digit home loss has earned an outstanding 25-19 SU record and 32-12 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Since 2015, this algorithm has been profitable in every season and has produced a 54-23-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

Here is another algorithm that has gone 32-5-1 ATS for 87% winners over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the number by 50 or more points spanning their previous seven games, and now facing a foe that has seen their last seven games play Over the total by a combined 50 points. The Pelicans have lost to the spread by 60.5 points over their last seven games while the Bucks have played over the total by a whopping 100 points spanning their last seven games.  

From the predictive playbook, the Pelicans are 23-9-1 ATS (72%) when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than the opponent in road games played since 2018.  

NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles  

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points 

Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%). 

Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage.  
 

From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM 

Jacksonville vs Kansas City 

4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books.  

So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons.  

Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total.  

Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past.   
JAX lost 27-17 in Week 10 and failed to cover by the hook as 9.5 dogs. Since then, the Jaguars are much-improved team on both sides of the ball. They had week 11 BYE  
teams, like the Jags, that are in the DR and playing with same-season revenge from a road loss have gone 18-11-1 ATS (62%) last 20 seasons.  
 If that loss was by 3 to 10 points, these road teams have posted a 9-4-1 ATS record (69%)  
  
Since week 12 Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL with a 13.6 offensive YPPT behind only the Bills at 12.7 and the 49ers at 13.43.   
Defensively they rank No. 1 with a remarkable 31.5 YPPT ratio. The 49ers are 5th at 21.7, Bengalis 6th at 21.3, the Chiefs 16th at 17.7, and the Jaguars have the best YPPT differential over this span making them a very dangerous team getting a ton of points. 

Houston Rockets vs LA lakers 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the points 
Consider a money line round parlay with these three dogs using pizza money-sized bets.  

The Lakers coming off a physically and emotionally draining 1113-112 loss to the 76ers last night and now must turn around on back-to-back days to host the Rockets. Betting on road teams, who have lost their last 3 road games of the current road trip and playing on back-to-back nights (Rockets) has earned a highly profitable 51-18-2 ATS for % winning bets since 2016. If the host is coming off a home loss priced as an underdog, our road team improves to 16-5-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.  

Here. is a second algorithm that has earned an outstanding 37-14 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. 
Bet on road teams that are allowing at least 114 PPG and are coming off back-to-back blowout losses of 15 or more points. If the matchup involves two losing record teams, the road team improves to 19-6 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

New Orleans Pelicans vs Cleveland Cavaliers 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans plus the points 

Betting on road dogs with same-season revenge from a previous loss of three or fewer points in the same season and with that foe coming off a loss priced as the favorite has earned a 40-17 ATS record for 70% winning bets since 2016. If the matchup involves two winning record teams, our road dog improves to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%.  

Toronto Raptors vs NY Knicks 

4% 8-unit bets bet on the Raptors plus the points 

Bet on road teams that are avenging a same-season loss against the current opponent, is coming off a horrid double-digit home loss has earned a 157-93-3 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2016. If the host is playing on back-to-back nights, the road team improves to a highly profitable 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2016.  

After having won three straight and ATS, the Raptors lost at home 114-103 to the Atlanta Hawks priced as a 7-point favorite. The Knicks are on a 3-game win streak and covered the spread in each of them. On Sunday, they defeated the lowly Detroit Pistons 117-104 and covered the spread as 8.5-point favorites. The Knicks are just 9-20-1 ATS in home games and coming off a win and 3-9 ATS in home games coming off two consecutive wins in games played over the past two seasons.  

Boston vs Brooklyn 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Nets plus the 2-points 

Consider betting 60% of your normal bet size pre-flop and then add 40% in-game at Nets +6.5 full game during the first half of action only.  

Durant will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained right knee after an MRI exam on Monday revealed an isolated sprain in his medial collateral ligament. Durant was injured in the third quarter when he collided with Miami's Jimmy Butler before the Nets concluded a three-game road trip with a 102-101 victory on Sunday. "No excuses," Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn said at practice Wednesday. "That's the biggest thing for this group. To (be in) the position last year where we were, I just say no excuses. 

Boston has had 4.2 percent of its shot attempts blocked this season while Brooklyn's rate is at 4.5, the two lowest percentages in the league. On the other end, both teams rank among the NBA's best in blocks per game -- the Nets are in first (6.98) and the Celtics fourth (5.40). 

Betting on home teams in a divisional matchup with both teams winning between 60 and 75% of their games and with the guest playing on back-to-back nights has gone 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

Memphis vs Orlando 

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points 

Betting on road favorites coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that they and their respective opponents have scored 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned an 85-27 SU (76%) record and 71-39-2 ATS (65%) winning bets since 2015. If the foe is playing on B2B nights, our road favorite has gone 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. If the host has a win percentage of less than 40% on the season and is playing on no more than a day of rest, our favorites have gone 35-15 ATS for 70% winning bets.  

The Memphis Grizzlies seek their fifth consecutive win and second in as many nights, playing the second leg of a road back-to-back on Thursday when they visit the Orlando Magic. 

Memphis won its fourth straight contest on Wednesday, 131-107 over the Charlotte Hornets, behind a balanced scoring attack. Nine Grizzlies finished with at least eight points, paced by Ja Morant's 23 points. No Memphis player was in the game for more than 28 minutes and 10 players played for at least 14 minutes. So, playing on back-to-back nights is not going to be a factor tonight.  

LA Rams vs LA Chargers 

4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points 

Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS.  

From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015. 

Carolina vs Tampa Bay 

5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points 

After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages. 

Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. 

From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons.