College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

John Ryan NCAA-F Top Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-12-24	Ole Miss v. LSU UNDER 62.5	Top	26-29	Win	100	30 h 24 m	Show
Mississippi vs 13 LSU 7:30 EST \| Tiger Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Under currently priced at 62.5 points. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 67-35-3 Under for 66% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won their last two games by 13 or more points each. That team is playing their third consecutive home game. The total is priced at 57.5 or more points.
10-12-24	Texas -14.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	34-3	Win	100	26 h 24 m	Show
1 Texas vs 18 Oklahoma 3:30 ET \| ABC \| Cotton Bowl 8-Unit Bet on the Texas Longhorns The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 75-14 SU (84%) and 59-28-2 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a ranked favorite. The opponent is also ranked. The site is either at home or on a neutral field. The game occurs from week 4 on out to the end of the regular season. If the favorite is ranked better than the foe by 5 or more positions in the poll (Texas ranked 1 and Oklahoma ranked 18 is 17 positions better) they have gone 36-2 SU (95%) and 27-11 ATS (71%) over the past 10 seasons. The decisive factor is that if the favorite lost to their rival in the previous season they bounce back with a huge 11-0 record and 10-1 ATS good for 91% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-12-24	South Carolina v. Alabama -21.5	Top	25-27	Loss	-109	23 h 51 m	Show
South Carolina vs Alabama Noon ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Alabama priced as a 21.5-point favorite. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 36-2 SU (95%) and 28-9-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has gone 21-2 SU (91%) and 18-4-1 ATS good for 82% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites facing a conference foe. The favorite gas seen their last three games play Over the total by 24 or more points. The favorite has won 80% or more of their games. The opponent has a winning record.
10-11-24	Northwestern +11.5 v. Maryland	Top	37-10	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
Northwestern vs Maryland 8 ET, Friday, October 7, 2024 \| 8-Unit bet on the Northwestern priced as a 10-point underdog. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 31-55 SU (95%) and 58-27-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs of 4.5 to 11.5 points in weeks 5 through 9. The dog is coming off two consecutive losses by double-digits to conference foes. They are facing a conference foe in the current matchup. If our dog has a losing record in the current season, they have gone 28-46 SU (38%) and 51-22-1 ATS (70%) winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-09-24	New Mexico State v. Jacksonville State -20.5	Top	13-54	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State 7:30 ET, Wednesday \| ESPN2 8-Unit bet on Jax State priced as 20.5-point favorites. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 28-3 SU (90%) and 21-9 ATS good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has a yards per game differential between –50 and 50 yards per game. The opponent has won 25% or fewer of their games. The opponent has been outgained by an average of 100 or more YPG. Our team is coming off two consecutive games gaining 475 or more total yards in each one. This game is taking place at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida and weather conditions will be potentially very bad and because of Hurricane Milton closing in on the Tampa Bay and Sarasota area this game could be cancelled. Safety is first, with this historic and catastrophic hurricane cutting an 800-mile slice across the middle of the state. JAX State ranks 22nd nationally averaging 204 rushing yards per game and will dominate a NMST defense that ranks 133rd nationally allowing an average of 277 rushing yards per game. So, no matter how bad the weather conditions are tonight, there is just no feasible way that the JAX State ground attack will be contained.
10-05-24	Navy v. Air Force +10	Top	34-7	Loss	-109	23 h 47 m	Show
Navy vs Air Force Noon ET \| CBS/Paramount+ Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy 10-Unit bet on the Falcons priced as 9.5-point underdogs. Live Betting optional Strategy: The Under in the Armed Forces games has gone 86-20-2 for 81% winning bets since 2006 and every season has posted a profit. There will be a season where the Over will win the money, but until that happens there is no reason to consider the Over bet and there is just not a number low enough to get me off of playing the Under in these matchups. So, if this game somehow gets off to a faster than expected start and you see the total priced at 42 or more points bet no more than a 5-unit amount on the Under. The last time these matchups exceeded 40 points in total was back in the COVID pandemic when Navy and Air Force combined for 47 points on October 13, 2020. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 18-22 SU and 27-10-3 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on home dogs priced between 4.5 and 10 points. The dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game. The opponent is coming off two straight games where they had fewer turnovers than their opponents. If our favorite is undefeated on the season, these home pups become quite fierce posting a 9-11 SU record and a 15-4-1 ATS mark for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model: We will be looking for the Air Force to have the same or fewer turnovers and to gain 275 or more rushing yards. In past games in which AF met or exceeded these projections has seen them go 70-12 SU and 57-24-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. If they commit 2 or fewer turnovers, they have gone 68-12 SU and 56-23-1 ATS good for 71% winning bets. If they hold their foes to 15 or more offensive yards-per-point ratio they have gone 56-3 SU and 43-16 ATS for 73% winning bets.
09-28-24	Georgia +1 v. Alabama	Top	34-41	Loss	-115	29 h 57 m	Show
Georgia vs Alabama 7:30 ET, September 28 Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, ALA 8-Unit bet on Georgia using the money line if they are priced as a favorite to 2.5 points. Currently priced as one-point favorites. It is doubtful Georgia will be priced as an underdog but if they are then grab the points instead of the money line. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-10 SU (79%) and a 30-18 ATS (63%) since 1980. The requirements are: It is game number four. Our team is coming off a BYE. Our team is favored or priced at pick-em. The opponent is coming off a win. Our team lost their last meeting with the current opponent. If our team is priced between the 3’s (3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog they improve to a 27-11 SU (71%) and a 27-9-2 ATS record goods for 75% winning bets since 1980.
09-28-24	Illinois v. Penn State -17.5	Top	7-21	Loss	-110	29 h 51 m	Show
Illinois vs Penn State 7:30 ET \| NBC Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA 10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 17.5 points. Two ranked conference rivals and the home team is favored by almost 20 points. So, the market is clearly telling us who the better team is and by nearly three TDs better. No. 19 Illinois travels to Happy Valley to take on No. 8 Penn State in a game set to start at 7:30 and white-out conditions. That’s not snow conditions, of course, but the 112,000 fans in attendance, who have been tailgating all day. It has been estimated that there are more people in the fields surrounding the Stadium than in the Stadium once the game starts. It is truly a remarkable venue to experience when it is a white-out or a stripe-out occasion. Penn State is coming off a BYE week and this is certainly great news for them as under head coach James Franklin they are 21-6 SU and ATS when the game is in the prime-time schedule. The clincher here is that when PSU has been favored in these situations, they have gone 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points per game. The following betting algorithm has gone 45-1 SU (98%) and 30-15-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. Bet conference favorites of 17.5 or more points. That favorite is ranked in the top-10 of the latest AP poll. The foe is ranked between 11 and 25 in the most recent AP poll. If the game occurs from week 5 to the end of the season, these favorites have gone 42-1 SU (98%) and 29-14 ATS for 69% winning bets. From the predictive model: My predictive models are expecting Penn State to score 31 or more points and hold Illinois to fewer than 300 offensive yards. In past home games under James Franklin, the Lions are 22-0 SU and 17-3-2 ATS for 85% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. Illinois is 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS when gaining less than 300 total yards in a road game and allowing 31 or more points.
09-28-24	Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 48.5	Top	38-7	Win	100	29 h 50 m	Show
Ohio State vs Michigan State 7 ET \| Peacock Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI 8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 48 points. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 53-29-5 Under record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet the Under. The road team is coming off a big win by 31 or more points. The home team is the underdog. The road team is gaining an average of 50 or more rushing yards than their foes. The host is gaining an average of 50 or more rushing yards than their foes. If the game is a conference matchup the Under has gone 34-18-4 for 65% winning bets and if the game occurs after week 3 of the regular season the Under has gone 30-13-1 for 70% winning bets.
09-28-24	Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas State	Top	20-42	Loss	-110	1 h 34 m	Show
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Noon \| ESPN Bill Snyder Family Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Cowboys priced as 5.5-point underdogs and a sprinkle on the money line. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-31 SU (45%) and 45-24 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 2.5 and 6.5 points. The game is a conference matchup. The game occurs from week 5 to the end of the regular season. The road team is playing with revenge. The bettor consensus for this game is on K-State all week but when the line hit 5.5 last night and with the number of tickets bet at 72% and rising and the handle at 58% and dropping is one of many reasons I have added this game to the card.
09-27-24	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -19	Top	34-38	Loss	-110	51 h 57 m	Show
V-Tech vs Miami (Fla) 7:30 ET \| ESPN \| Friday 8-Unit bet on Miami priced as 19.5-point favorites. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 31-16 SU (66%) and 30-16-1 for 65% winning bets since 2010 or 15 seasons. Bet on undefeated teams from week 4 on out. They are averaging 4.8 or more rushing yards per attempt. They outgained their previous foe by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The total is 55 or fewer points. If a conference matchup these teams have gone 24-10 SU and 23-11 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010 and if our team is a double-digit favorite, they have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive model: My models are projecting that Miami will score 35 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as V-Tech. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone 37-0 DSU and 32-5 ATS good for 87% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.
09-21-24	Kansas State v. BYU +7	Top	9-38	Win	100	15 h 23 m	Show
Kansas State vs BYU 10:30 EST 8-Unit Bet on BYU +6.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Bet on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The hoe dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game.
09-21-24	Tennessee -6.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	25-15	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
Tennessee vs Oklahoma 7:30 ET, Saturday September 21 8-Unit Bet on Tennessee –6.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 15-23 SU record for 40% and a 24-14 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The favorite is coming off a game in which they scored 60 or more points. The favorite held their previous opponent to 14 or fewer points.
09-21-24	Arizona State +3.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	22-30	Loss	-105	8 h 23 m	Show
Arizona State vs Texas Tech 3:30 ET 8-Unit bet on ASU priced as a 3.5-point underdog. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane Noon EST 8-Unit bet on the LLAF plus 1.5 points. The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG.
09-21-24	Tulane v. UL-Lafayette +1.5	Top	41-33	Loss	-109	5 h 52 m	Show
Arizona State vs Texas Tech 3:30 ET 8-Unit bet on ASU priced as a 3.5-point underdog. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane Noon EST 8-Unit bet on the LLAF plus 1.5 points. The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG.
09-19-24	South Alabama +7.5 v. Appalachian State	Top	48-14	Win	100	6 h 6 m	Show
South Alabama vs Appalachian State 7:30 ET 8-Unit bet on South Alabama plus the 7 points. The predictive model sees South Alabama getting out to a fast start in this game so betting 4-Units on them +3.5 or 3-points for the first half and then 4-Unit on them +7 points for the full game is an alternative strategy to consider betting. Betting on underdogs between 2 and 6 points using the first half line that are outgaining their foes by 1.0 or more yards per play and are coming off a game in which they gained 475 or more yards have gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. The College Football Betting Algorithm The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 59-29 record and a 56-31 ATS mark good for 64.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that are gaining 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempt. That team outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The team is coming off a game in which they scored 50 or more points. If our team is an underdog of any size, they have gone 8-14 SU but 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. The South Alabama Jaguars have a new coach in Major Applewhite, who had just four offensive and three defensive starters returning but he has the new starters playing quite well and why not he was their OC last year. Since joining the FBS in 2012 they stopped 10 consecutive losing seasons and had the second biggest bowl victory (59-10 over Eastern Michigan).
09-14-24	Georgia -22 v. Kentucky	Top	13-12	Loss	-110	29 h 12 m	Show
1 Georgia vs Kentucky 7:30 ET ABC/ESPN+ Korger Field, Lexington, KY 8-Unit Bet on the Georgia Bulldogs minus 24 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 158-52 straight-up (SU) and 136-72-2 against the spread (ATS) for 65.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams. The road team has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The opponent is coming off a 17 or more-point loss. If the game is a conference showdown and the road team is favored by double-digits they have gone on post a 72-6 SU and 53-25 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and a highly profitable 44-4 SU and 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and not a single season that has not been profitable. I do not like laying this amount of chalk with any road team, but we are talking about the best team in the nation and the best program in college football for the past five seasons. Here is a second simple to understand betting algorithm that has gone 57-23 ATS for 71% winning bets and a highly profitable 40% ROI since 2020. The requirements are: The team has the same quarterback from the previous season. The opponent has a new quarterback this season. The team has allowed fewer than 200 yards in each of their last two games. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Georgia will score 35 or more points, will have the same or fewer turnovers as Kentucky, and will rush the ball more times than they pass. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Georgia is 38-0 SU and 24-13-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points; they are 18-0 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points, posting more rushes than passes and having the same or fewer turnovers.
09-14-24	Boston College v. Missouri -14.5	Top	21-27	Loss	-105	4 h 7 m	Show
Boston College vs Missouri 12:45 ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Missouri currently priced as a 14.5-point favorite. Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 180-40 SU and 126-88-6 ATS record for 59% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home or neutral site favorites of three or more points. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25. The game is part of the regular season. If the guest has covered the spread by 25 or more points over their last two games (Exceeded market expectations significantly) our home favorite has gone 28-3 SU and 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has nine returning starters including his quarterback. Last season they played 11 teams that played in a bowl game, and they defeated 10 of those foes. Their offense has sputtered in the first two weeks but having a BC squad that has shocked two opponents will get their full attention. Keep an eye on WR Luther Burden III, who is fast becoming a first round draft pick and future NFL superstar. If there are any prop bets for him in today’s game the OVER with some pizza money is in order. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is expecting Missouri to score 31 or more points and/or gain at least 1.1 or more yards per play than BC gains. In past games where Missouri met or exceeded this performance measure in home games has seen them go 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
09-14-24	Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +18.5	Top	45-10	Loss	-110	22 h 41 m	Show
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Noon, Saturday, September 14 ESPN2 \| Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK 8-unit bet on Tulsa priced as an 18.5-point underdog. In each of the past 9 consecutive seasons I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 or more points win the game outright and in 2022 I had five of these massive dogs pull off the shocker. No one knows when these monumental upsets will occur. What i do know is that if you play these big barking pups each time and include a sprinkle on the money line you will add a significant amount of profits to your season-long bottom line. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 43-50 straight-up (SU) and 58-33-2 against the spread (ATS) for 64% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against any team coming off a win. That team allowed 600 or more total yards in that win. That team committed fewer turnovers than their previous opponent. If the game has a posted total of 50 or more points and that team above is favored by 11.5 or more points, fading then has produced a 18-7-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Tulsa will score 27 or more points and convert at least 40% of their third down attempts. In past games in which Tulsa met or exceeded these projections has led to a 5-5 SU record and a perfect 10-0 ATS record.
09-13-24	Arizona +7 v. Kansas State	Top	7-31	Loss	-109	7 h 43 m	Show
Arizona vs Kansas State 8:00 ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Arizona currently priced as a 7-point underdog. Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 44-76 SU and 70-47-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. They had a winning record last season (bowl team). They are coming off a win priced as the favorite but failed to cover the spread. The game occurs in the first six weeks of the season. The second betting algorithm supporting Arizona has gone 40-23-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and the requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between pick-em and 9.5 points. They are coming off a win. In that win they failed to cover the spread by not even scoring enough points to exceed how much of a favorite they were in that game. They are facing an undefeated foe. So, Arizona was priced as a 43-point favorite and won the game 22-10. They failed toscore the betting line by 21 points, which is a quite rare result in college football. In fact, there have been just 6 games since 1996 that have seen a team win and failed by 21 points to equal their betting line. Moreover, teams that failed by 21 or more points to equal their betting line have gone 8-11 SU and 0-19 ATS in those games. Following these situations these teams have posted a 10-7 SU record and 10-7 ATS mark. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Arizona will score 28 or more points and will gain 0.75 or more yards-per-play than K-State. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Arizona is 45-23 SU and 42-24-2 ATS fof64% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points; they are 22-7 SU and 19-10 ATS for 65.5% winning bets when they outgained their foes by 0.75 or more yards per play; 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when they have scored 28 or more points and outgained their foes by at least 0.75 yards per play.
09-07-24	Mississippi State v. Arizona State UNDER 59	Top	23-30	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Mississippi State vs Arizona State 10:30 ET, Saturday, September 7, 2024 \| ESPN 8-Unit bet on the Under priced at 58.5 points. The following betting algorithm has gone 60-34-2 Under good for 63% winning bets since 1999 and 12-2 Under good for 86% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet the under in a game with a total priced between 51 and 60 points. The underdog is coming off an ATS win priced as a double-digit favorite. The opponent is coming off a blowout win by 28 or more points. The underdog is priced at 3 or more points.
09-07-24	Texas Tech +1 v. Washington State	Top	16-37	Loss	-108	15 h 1 m	Show
Texas Tech vs Washington State 10 ET, Saturday September 7, 2024 \| FOX Gesa Field, Pullman, WA 8-Unit Bet on the Texas Tech +2.5 points The Red Raiders are coming off a big-time scare as they needed overtime to defeat Abeline Christian 52-51 priced as a whopping 31.5-point favorite. That has been a very rare situation, but if you have been a log-time subscriber you already know I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 points that has won straight-up. Of course, I never know when those monster upsets will occur, but it is always rewarding when we nail one of them. I think there has been an overreaction to the the near historic loss that Texas Tech overcame last week. That type of game will get their attention, and you can bet the coaching staff has been in their players’ faces all week. This Situational CFB Betting Algorithm has gone 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS and is as rare as the outcome of last week’s game. Bet on road underdogs. The dog is coming off a home win. They won the game by four or fewer points priced as a –24 or more-point favorite. They are taking on a non-conference foe. If the game occurs in week 2 these road teams have bounced back with a 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATDS mark good for 78% winning bets. My predictive model projects that TT will score at least 30 points and in past games since 2019 they are 24-10 SU and 26-8 ATS for 77% winning bets. WSU is just 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS for 24% winning bets when they have allowed 31 or more points in games played over the past 5 seasons.
09-07-24	East Carolina v. Old Dominion -1	Top	20-14	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
East Carolina vs Old Dominion 6 ET ESPN+ S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA 8-Unit bet on ODU priced as a –1.5-point favorite. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent.
09-07-24	Marshall v. Virginia Tech -19.5	Top	14-31	Loss	-110	10 h 32 m	Show
Marshall vs Virginia Tech 4:30 ET, September 7 \| The CW Network Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA 8-Unit Bet on V-Tech minus 20.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent.
09-06-24	BYU v. SMU UNDER 55.5	Top	18-15	Win	100	5 h 36 m	Show
BYU at SMU (FRIDAY) 7 ET \| ESPN2 \| Gerald J. Fgord Stadium, Dallas, TX 8-Unit Best bet Under the posted total currently priced at 55.5 points. The following betting algorithm has gone 60-34-2 Under good for 63% winning bets since 1999 and 12-2 Under good for 86% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet the under in a game with a total priced between 51 and 60 points. The underdog is coming off an ATS win priced as a double-digit favorite. The opponent is coming off a blowout win by 28 or more points. The underdog is priced at 3 or more points.
08-31-24	Wyoming +6.5 v. Arizona State	Top	7-48	Loss	-110	82 h 19 m	Show
Wyoming vs Arizona State 8-Unit bet on the Wyoming Cowboys getting 6.5 points. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 92-49-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: The game is played in the regular season. The difference between the money bet (handle) and the percentage of tickets is between 11 and 65%. The line movement from opening to closing price is between –0.5 and –9.5 points. The team is the visitor. The spread percentage is between 24 and 40%. So, we have a situation in the markets where the percentage of money bet less the percentage of tickets bet shows that the handle percentage is 11 to 65% more than the tickets percentage. The difference from opening to closing price has worked against the team we are betting on. Currently the line has moved only a half point from +7 to +6.5 points and only 33% of the tickets but 62% of the money is on the Cowboys.
08-31-24	Clemson v. Georgia -11.5	Top	3-34	Win	100	23 h 58 m	Show
No. 14 Clemson vs No. 1 Georgia Noon ET, August 31, 2024 \| ABC/ESPN+ 10-Unit Bet on Georgia priced at 12-point favorites. 3-Unit Pizza-Money bet Under Clemson’s team total Consider betting 70% of your 10-Unit bet on Georgia preflop and then look to add 15% on Georgia at –10.5 points and 15% more on Georgia at –7.5 points. I have learned and profited from this week 1 matchups involving two ranked teams over the years and now this one looks quite string. Remember to bet with your head and not over it. These 10-Unit 5% Max Bets have lost 33% ATS of the time over the past five football seasons. No one knows if the bet is going to win on any given day – confident bets are different than being Nostradamus – but I rely on the fact that they have hit at great winning percentages over 5+ seasons and that by the end of the season we have reason to believe that significant profits will be made again. In week 1 of the regular season and with both teams playing their first game, both are ranked in the AP preseason poll and the difference between these ranks is between 1 and 19, the higher ranked team has gone 28-19 ATS for 60% winners. So, Georgia is ranked #1 and Clemson #14 for a difference of 13. In week 1 and 2 matchups of ranked teams, the favorites priced between –3 and –17.5 points that are playing at home or on a neutral field have gone 37-22-1 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 20 seasons; in Week 1 action they have gone 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets. From the Predictive Model We are expecting Georgia to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than Clemson. In past games played at home or on a neutral field Georgia is 25-0 SU and 19-5-1 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Since the arrival of Kirby Smart, Georgia is 52-2 SU and 38-15-1 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2016 when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Clemson is an anemic 1-6 and 0-7 ATS in games played on the road or a neutral field where they allowed 28 or more points and had the same of more turnovers than the foe spanning the past three seasons. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are just 14-24 SU and 9-29 ATS for 24% winners when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers since 2008. The predictive model grades this a 10-Unit 5% Max bet with an 84% probability that the performance measures identified above will occur in the game. Coach Smart is in his ninth season and is 94-16 SU and 70-43 ATS and this has been accomplished in the SEC Conference. In a somewhat rare situation, he returns 7 starters on both offense and defense and had the top-ranked recruiting class. This is rare because over the last two seasons, he has sent 25 players to the NFL. However, this season he has his returning starting quarterback Carson Beck, who is coming off a 13-1 campaign and a Archie Maning award finalist. He led the Bulldogs to a 5-1 SUATS record when facing Top-25 opponents. Since Smart’s arrival, Georgia has gone 28-10 and 27-11 ATS for 71% winning bets when facing a ranked foe either at home or on a neutral field. Good Luck to Us and remember always bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.
01-08-24	Washington +5 v. Michigan	Top	13-34	Loss	-105	8 h 56 m	Show
Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 7:30 PM EST \| ESPN 8-Unit bet on Washington plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog, but I do not see this line moving if at all ahead of kickoff. With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points. This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference. Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1. Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons. Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes. From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons.
01-01-24	Texas -3.5 v. Washington	Top	31-37	Loss	-110	33 h 47 m	Show
10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points. The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing. Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas. Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee. From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015. Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-30-23	Auburn v. Maryland UNDER 49	Top	13-31	Win	100	27 h 38 m	Show
Auburn vs Maryland Music City Bowl, Nissan Stadium, Memphis, TN Saturday, December 30, 2:00 ET (ABC) 8-Unit best bet Under 49 points and is valid to 47.5 points. 5-Unit Optional Wager on Auburn minus the points. Consider betting 75% of your preflop amount and then look to get 25% more at 54.5 points during the first half of action. Here are some notes supporting a 5-Unit bet on Auburn and may be opportunities for those who like betting teasers or parlays. I do not bet teasers or parlays often and in the rare time that I do, I will only add to my bets with a pizza money sized amount. Maryland is 1-9 ATS after having won two of their last three games under HC Locksley. Auburn is motivated to win this bowl game to avoid being labeled the first team to have three consecutive losing seasons since the 1977. Moreover, Hugh Freeze’s 6-1 SUATS mark in bowl games and as mentioned Auburn has plenty to prove in this game to show the War Eagle fan base head coach Freeze was the right hire for the long-term. Maryland is 32-16 after a game gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game; 27-11 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more last game. HC Freeze is 38-13 UNDER when facing a solid offensive team that is averaging 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Under is 13-5-1 for 72% winning bets in bowl games in which the favorite of less than 10 points has won 6 games and the opponent has won more than 6 games, with the favorite possessing a ground attack averaging 75 or more yards per game then the opponent and with the game total set at fewer than 50 points.
12-30-23	Ole Miss v. Penn State -4.5	Top	38-25	Loss	-110	25 h 19 m	Show
Mississippi vs Penn State Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA Noon, Saturday December 30 10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 5.5 points and is valid to 7 points. Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action. Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll. Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin. PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.
12-29-23	Missouri v. Ohio State OVER 48.5	Top	14-3	Loss	-110	198 h 19 m	Show
Ohio State vs Missouri The Cotton Bowl Classic 8 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the OVER, currently priced at 49 points. Given the player news that has surfaced over the past week, I do see this total moving lower. I recommend betting 25% no, though at the best price you are offered and then monitor the total movement over the next week. The Buckeyes starting QB McCord lost just one game this season but nevertheless entered the transfer portal and is going to attend Syracuse next season. Replacing him for the Cotton Bowl Classic is red shirt freshman Devin Brown, who hails from Draper, Utah. He attended Corner Canyon High School and led them to the state championship game and was named MaxPreps’ Utah state player of the year and threw for nearly 8,000 yards and 85 touchdown passes in his 31-game high school career. He played his first three seasons at Queen Creek High School in Arizona and was coached by former Buckeye QB and Rose Bowl MVP Joe Germaine. He then transferred to Corner Canyon, in Draper Utah, for his senior season to play in a different offense, and he threw for a whopping 4,881 yards with 57 TDs while adding 430 yards on the ground and eight more touchdowns. He competed with Kyle McCord for the No. 1 quarterback role through 11 practices during the 2023 spring drills before injuring a finger and missing the final four practices, including the spring game. He then switched jersey numbers from 15 to 33, a number he wore throughout age group football and for a time in high school, and as a tribute to Sammy Baugh, a charter member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Brown says No. 33 is “the original quarterback number” and no one can disagree with that fact. So, I do not see much decline in the performance of the high-powered offense with him under center and a stable of weapons and underclassmen making their first appearances, who will be motivated to give the best possible performance for the coaching staff heading into Spring Football. Brown suffered an ankle sprain and is listed as pout till the end of December, but I strongly believe he will start. Betting the OVER in a bowl game featuring two teams with nine or more wins and with one of them having beaten the spread by 42 or more points over their last five games has goner a highly profitable 15-3 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total is priced between 42.5 and 60 points the Over is 9-1 for 90% winning bets.
12-29-23	Notre Dame v. Oregon State +6	Top	40-8	Loss	-110	22 h 51 m	Show
Notre Dame vs Oregon State Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas 2 ET 8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action. Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014. The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019.
12-29-23	Clemson v. Kentucky +3.5	Top	38-35	Win	100	2 h 1 m	Show
Clemson vs Kentucky TaxSlayer Gator Bowl \| Noon ET, Friday 8-Unit Bet on Kentucky plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog. This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl. Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are: The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14. The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33. The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013. The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978. The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas. Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky. Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game. Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions. Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons.
12-28-23	Arizona v. Oklahoma UNDER 60	Top	38-24	Loss	-110	5 h 7 m	Show
Arizona vs Oklahoma Valero Alamo Bowl 9:15 ET, December 28 8-Unit best bet Under the posted total Betting the Under with a team (Oklahoma) that has covered the spread by 42 or more points over their last five games in a bowl game or playoff game and with both teams having won 9 or more games on the season has seen the Under go 15-3 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is another system that has earned a record good for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to be the Under in a neutral field matchup with a total between 56.5 and 69.5 points with a team (Arizona) coming off two consecutive wins over conference rivals. If the game takes place in December, these games have seen the Under go 13-4 for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-27-23	Louisville -6 v. USC	Top	28-42	Loss	-110	3 h 15 m	Show
USC vs Louisville 8 ET \| Fox \| Holiday Bowl Petco Park, San Diego, CA 8-Unit bet on the Trojans plus the 7 0oints and is valid down to 6.5 points. Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season. The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup. USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites. The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers.
12-23-23	Utah v. Northwestern +6	Top	7-14	Win	100	54 h 52 m	Show
Northwestern vs. Utah 68 Ventures Bowl, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas 7:30 PM EST, Saturday December 23, 2023 8-Unit bet on Northwestern plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4 points. Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started.
12-22-23	Central Florida v. Georgia Tech UNDER 67.5	Top	17-30	Win	100	4 h 51 m	Show
UCF vs. Georgia Tech Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL 8-Unit Under the posted total of 67 points and is valid to 65.5 points. This total is more likely to climb higher in the last hours of trade ahead of kickoff. Betting the Under in a game involving two struggling defenses that are allowing 390 to 440 YPG in a non-conference matchup has earned a solid 40-13-1 Under record good for 75.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system has gone 11-2 Under for 85% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and then look to add 25% at 74.5 points during the first half of action only.
12-21-23	Syracuse v. South Florida UNDER 56.5	Top	0-45	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
The Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Thursday, December 21, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 56.5 points and is valid down to 55.5 points. The South Florida Bulls will square off against the Syracuse Orange in Boca Raton, Florida and is scheduled to start at 8:00 EST and will be televised by ESPN. The game will be played on the Florida Atlantic home stadium and will give provide a modest home field advantage for the Bulls. What does matter is that both teams are 6-6 SU and with win can claim a winning season record for their recruiting efforts. The Bulls yielded the most passing yards per game (301) in the nation this year, but Syracuse will be starting redshirt freshman Braden Davis, who threw one pass this season. He attended South Carolina as a freshman and made the transfer last season. He is 6-5 and 200 pounds and does have a strong arm, but will be throw accurate passes for 60 minutes is an unknown. He was the Gatorade Delaware Player of the Year and led the Middletown, DE Cavaliers to an 11-1 record and the state championship as a senior. He was selected for the Under Armour All-America game. He completed 114-of-156 passes for 1,872 yards and 20 touchdowns through nine games and rushed for 638 yards and three scores on 46 carries. One of six members of the prestigious Franklin D. Watkins Memorial Award Class of 2022 and ranked as the top player in the state of Delaware, the 23rd-best quarterback prospect in the nation. His running ability is a threat in this matchup and look for Syracuse to execute RPO and the wild cat far more than they did during the regular season. It may be his only start knowing that Ohio State starting QB McCord transferred to the Orange in recent weeks. The following betting algorithm has produced a 49-24 Under record good for 67% winning bets. Bet the Under in games with a total between 57.5 and 70 points. One of the teams is coming off a SU + ATS win. The game occurs in December and includes all Bowls. If that team is priced between the 3’s 12-11 SU (52%) \| 12-11 ATS (52%) \| 18-5 Under (78%) Bet the Under!
12-19-23	UTSA v. Marshall +8.5	Top	35-17	Loss	-110	4 h 5 m	Show
UTSA vs Marshall Frisco Bowl 9 ET December 19 8-Unit bet on Marshall plus 7.5 points and is valid bet if they remain the dog UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position. Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals. He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense. From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS.
12-16-23	California v. Texas Tech UNDER 57.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
California vs Texas Tech 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently at 57.5 points and is valid down to 56.5 points. Betting the Under in a game with a total between 56.5 and 63 points and in a game involving a pair of defenses that allow between 5.6 and 6.5 yards per pass play have earned a 62-21-2 record for 71% winners over the past 30 seasons.
12-02-23	Louisville v. Florida State -115	Top	6-16	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
Louisville vs FSU ACC Championship 8 ET \| 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point. FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production. FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes. [QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.
12-02-23	Michigan v. Iowa +22.5	Top	26-0	Loss	-115	9 h 10 m	Show
Iowa vs Michigan 8:00 EST \| FOX Big Ten Championship 8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs. A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it. I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units. Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014. Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats? It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.
12-02-23	SMU v. Tulane -3	Top	26-14	Loss	-105	5 h 24 m	Show
SMU vs Tulane American Athletic Championship 4:00 ET \| ABC 8-Unit bet on Tulane minus the three points and is good up to 4.5 points, but that is unlikely to occur. Betting on a team that has covered the spread by 50 or more points over their past 5 games both teams have won 80% or more of their games and the total of the game is 45 or more points has earned a 54-25-3 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. From the predictive model, we learn that Tulane is 62-14 SU and 57-19 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. SMU is 16-94 SU and 27-83 ATS for 24.5% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers. Iowa vs Michigan 8:00 EST \| FOX Big Ten Championship 8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs. A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it. I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units. Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014. Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats? It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk. Louisville vs FSU ACC Championship 8 ET \| 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point. FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production. FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes. [QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.
12-02-23	Georgia v. Alabama OVER 54	Top	24-27	Loss	-110	5 h 14 m	Show
Alabama vs Georgia SEC Championship 10-UNIT BEST BET Over the posted total Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia 4:00 ET \| CBS Georgia -6 \| 54.5-point total The Over bet for this conference championship game is backed by one of the best betting algorithms in my database consisting of more than 5000 money-making algorithms. This one has earned a 21-9-1 Over record good for 70% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are as follows: § Bet the Over in a conference championship game. § The total in the game exceeds average of both team’s points allowed by at least 20 points. Now, if we drill down a bit further into the database and filter games that had a total of fewer than 60 points the Over has produced a perfect 9-0 record. Georgia and Alabama rank first and second in the SEC allowing 15.8 and 17.9 points per game respectively. Their defenses combine for 33.7 points per game which is 20.8 points below the posted total of 54.5 points. The Under may gain some steam from the public given that the defenses are the best in the conference and among the best nationally. So, even if this points differential falls to -19 or fewer points (52.5-point total) know that the system still has produced a money-making 10-3 Over record good for 77% winning bets.
12-01-23	Oregon -9 v. Washington	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	4 h 33 m	Show
Washington vs. Oregon 8-Unit Best Bet on the Oregon Ducks minus the 10 points and this line may drop to 9.5 or fewer points as kickoff approaches. Betting on teams that are gaining 5.8 or more RYPA and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards and now facing a foe that gaining between 4.3 and 4.8 RYPA has earned a solid 125-70 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive mode, we learn that Oregon is 122-4 SU and 87-3% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points and having the same or fewer interceptions thrown. If they have scored 41 or more points and did not throw an interception has produced a 71-1 SU record and 54-15-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.
12-01-23	New Mexico State v. Liberty -10.5	Top	35-49	Win	100	2 h 23 m	Show
New Mexico State vs Liberty C-USA Championship 8-Unit Best Bet on the Liberty Flames -10.5 points and is valid up to -12 points. Undefeated teams facing a foe with three or more losses in their Conference Championship game are 41-7 SU and 13-17 ATS for 65% winners since 1996. If our team si favored they are 41-5 SU and 31-15 ATS for 67.4% winners. If a double-digit favorite they have gone 34-3 SU and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets. From the predictive models we learn that Liberty is 41-8 SU and 36-10-1 ATS in games in which they have scored 31 or more points since 2018. Plus, if they score28 or more -points and gain 450 or more yards has produced a 32-3 SU mark and 26-8-1 ATS record good for 77 % winning bets.
11-25-23	Clemson v. South Carolina +8	Top	16-7	Loss	-110	34 h 13 m	Show
Clemson vs South Carolina 7:30 ET \| Saturday Williams Brice Stadium, Atlanta 8-Unit Best bet on South Carolina plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points. Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 12.5 points that are riding a three or more-game win streak and facing a foe that has won at least their previous game and with a total of 50 or more points has gone 44-21-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system has not had a losing season spanning this 10-season slice of games. SC is 5-6 and needs the win to be bowl eligible and that is far more motivation that what Clemson has to grab a hold of as they conclude their very disappointing season already with four losses. Clemson is 0-7 ATS failing to cover by an average of 13.6 PPG after allowing seven or fewer points in the first half of each of their last two games.
11-25-23	South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 58.5	Top	44-52	Loss	-110	34 h 45 m	Show
South Alabama vs Texas State 7 ET \| NFL Network \| Saturday Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX 8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER 58.5 points Betting the Under in conference games with a posted total of 44 or more points and with both teams sporting win percentages between 50 and 60% on the season has gone 53-18 Under for 75% winning bets since 2013. Betting the Under with a total between 56.5 and 63 points with the home team averaging at least 31 PPG on the season and is coming off a game in which they allowed 50 or more points has earned a 40-20 Under record for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. SA is 14-3 Under following a two-game home stand; 27-12-1 Under when the total has been between 56.5 and 63 points. TXST is 28-9 Under following a double-digit loss to a conference foe; 15-5 Under after a loss of 21 or more points to a conference foe.
11-25-23	Alabama v. Auburn +13.5	Top	27-24	Win	105	7 h 3 m	Show
Alabama vs Auburn Iron Bowl \| 3:30 ET 8-Unit bet on Auburn +13 points and is good down to 11.5 points. Auburn head coach Freeze is a solid 31-14 ATS when priced as the dog for his career and 16-4-1 ATS when facing a strong passing attack that is completing 62% or more of their passes. Betting on home underdogs that are allowing an average of 5.2 to 6.2 YPPL and facing a foe that is an elite offense gaining 6.2 or more YPPL and is coming off two consecutive games gaining an average of 6.2 or more YPPL in each game has earned an outstanding 90-42-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. Not a single unprofitable season over the past 10 seasons.
11-25-23	Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan	Top	24-30	Loss	-110	49 h 13 m	Show
Ohio State vs Michigan Noon EST, Saturday 10-Unit Best Bet on Ohio State plus the 3 points Since 1980, there have been 34 games pitting 10 or more-win teams against each other and the DOGS have gone 13-21, but 20-12-2 ATS for 63% winning bets. If both teams have 10 wins exact, the dog has gone 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% and there have been just three matchups featuring 11-0 teams and the DOG is 3-0 SUATS. Prop Bets with Pizza Money Bet Over OSU points total of 20.5 points -115 Highest scoring half being the second +115 First Half three-way on OSU +150 to be leading at the half. Note: OSU and Michigan have only been tied three times at the half since 1980 and the three-way line for a tie is only +600, which is horrid value. In those three games that were tied at the half OSU won all three games. In a matchup of undefeated teams in weeks 12 or 13, the dog has gone 8-10 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1987. If the dog is priced at single-digits, they have gone 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS for 75% winners. I absolutely love the OSU defense right now and that is the part of this team no one is talking about. Since allowing 17 points in a 37-17 win over Maryland they have allowed an average of 8.5 PPG over their last six games. They have allowed more than 200 passing yards just one this season and that was back in Week 3 action where they won 63-10 over Western Kentucky and second and third stringers were in the game. So, overall OSU ranks 2nd in scoring defense allowing 9.5 PPG and second to Michigan, who is #1 allowing 9 PPG, but have played a much easier schedule. OSU ranks best nationally with a 0.145 points per play ratio, best allowing 3.9 YPPL, second-best allowing 27% third down conversions, best allowing 4.7 YPPA, and #2 allowing 145 PYPG. Michigan is not a good passing team ranking 61st averaging 228 YPG so they are going to struggle mightily to move the chains on any third and long situation. This game could come down a field goal and that is not good news for Michigan, who ranks 124th of 137 D1 programs making just 56% of their attempts this season. OSU ranks 15th converting 88% of their field goal attempts. From the model we are expecting OSU to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games OSI when in this role have gone 145-5 SU and 106-40-4 ATS for 73% winners and when priced as the road dog, they are 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.
11-24-23	UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane	Top	16-29	Loss	-110	6 h 18 m	Show
UTSA vs Tulane 3:30 ET \| ABC Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA 10-UNIT BEST BET on UTSA plus the 3.5 points and is valid if they remain the dog. Betting on road underdogs that are scoring between 28 and 34 PPG, facing a foe with a defense allowing an average between 16 and 21 PPG, after week 6 of the regular season and is coming off a game in which they scored 24 or more points in the first half has earned a highly profitable 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team also scored 42 or more points in their previous game, the improve to a stellar 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winners. Betting on road teams facing a foe that has lost to the spread by 49 or more total points over their last 5 games with the game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 has earned a solid 60-28-1 ASTS mark for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road team has three or fewer losses on the season, they soar to a 23-9-1 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. UTSA is 14-1 SU when facing a defense allowing 58% or higher completion percentage over the past two seasons; 11-1 SU when facing an elite offense that is gaining 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.
11-24-23	Miami-FL v. Boston College UNDER 49.5	Top	45-20	Loss	-112	3 h 44 m	Show
Miami (FLA) vs Boston College Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA Noon ET \| ABC \| Friday 8-Unit Bet Under 49 points and is valid down to 47.5 points. Again, it is unlikely the price will move down that much ahead of kickoff. ESPN Bet is currently offering 49.5 at -105 vig I also like betting 6 units Under at that price and then look to add 2-Units at 51.5 or higher in the first half of action. Betting the Under with a total of 54 or fewer points in a matchup of conference foes has gone 28-10 for 74% winning bets since 2013. There was just one losing season in 2016 when this system went 1-0 OVER, so this is a proven money-making betting system that can be counted on to make more profits in the seasons coming up. Miami head coach Cristobal is 21-7 Under for 75% when favored between 3.5 and 10 points for his career. Miami is 40-20 Under after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games.
11-23-23	Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +10	Top	17-7	Push	0	29 h 0 m	Show
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State 7:30 PM EST Thanksgiving Day 8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi State plus the 10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. Ole Miss is on a 2-9 ATS streak following a game in which forced no more than a single turnover. Betting on home underdogs between +155 and +325 on the money line that are coming of a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and now facing a foe that has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games has gone 23-17 SU averaging a +198 money line wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI. Miss State needs the qin to become bowl eligible and there are 8 returning starters on that offense that will want to do just that especially against their state rival Ole Miss squad. I think that motivating factor for State is significant and may be the edge that gets them within single digits and a possible win.
11-18-23	Syracuse +7 v. Georgia Tech	Top	22-31	Loss	-120	77 h 29 m	Show
Syracuse vs Georgia Tech Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta 8:00 ET 8-Unit Best Bet on Syracuse plus the 6.5 points Consider betting the Orange with 60% of your normal betting amount for an 8-Unit Titan. Then if the first score of the game is a TD by GT add 30% on the LIVE in-game line. Next, add the remaining 10% if GT earns the first two scores of the game by two TDs or a TD followed by a FG or even a safety. The next scenario for either the 30% or the 10% is to bet Syracuse if they lose the lead during the first half of action. Betting on teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that is coming off a loss by 17 or more points has earned a 345-86 SU record and a 249-175-7 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 2009. If we drill down and filter that our team is on the road, their record improves to 163-47 (78%) and 138-70-2 ATS for 66% winning bets. If then add in only those games with a total between 50 and 54.5 points their record soars to a remarkable 48-10 SU (83%) and 43-15 ATS mark for 74% winning tickets. If our team is a dog of 2.5 or more points, they have gone 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. Both teams need the win to be bowl eligible and Syracuse does have a winnable game against Wake Forest in their finale. G-Tech has No. 1 Georgia on deck and no chance to win that game so there is a lot on the line for both programs. I like what I saw out of the Orange offense last week in their 28-13 road win over Pittsburgh scoring 21 points in the second half and hold Pitt scoreless. Granted, it was on a neutral field, but nevertheless the Orange looked solid on both sides of the ball, and I see that positive development carrying over to this game as well.
11-18-23	Oregon v. Arizona State +25.5	Top	49-13	Loss	-115	5 h 7 m	Show
Oregon vs Arizona State 4:00 PM EST Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ 8-Unit best Bet on ASU plus the 24.5 points Bet on double-digit home underdogs.The total is 55 or fewer points.The dogs are allowing an average of 325 to 375 yards per game.The favorite is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.3 or more yards per play.The favorite is an elite offense gaining an average 420 or more yards per game. • 23-10 ATS for 70% winning tickets since 2006. • If our team is playing at home 4-3 SU \| 6-1 ATS (86%) since 2015 LIVE in-game strategy is to bet 80% preflop at +24.5 and then look for Oregon to score a touchdown and look to get the remaining 20% at 27.5 or more points during the first half of action.
11-18-23	UCLA v. USC UNDER 64	Top	38-20	Win	100	5 h 37 m	Show
UCLA vs USC 3:30 ET LA Memorial Coliseum 8-UNIT BET Under the posted total currently priced at 63.5 points and is valid down to 61.5 points. Betting the Under in a game where one of the teams has seen their last seven games play Under the posted total by 46 or more points and has a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season has gone 70-36 for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is on the road and facing a conference foe, the Under has gone a remarkable 32-8 for 80% winning bets spanning the past five seasons.
11-18-23	Michigan v. Maryland +18.5	Top	31-24	Win	100	1 h 6 m	Show
No.3 Michigan vs Maryland SECU Stadium, College Park, MD 12:00 ET 8-Unit Best Bet on Maryland plus the 18.5 points and sprinkle the money line. Undefeated teams play on the road as a conference favorite and facing a host that Has won 60% or more of their games from Week 10 on out have gone 46-61-1 ATS for 57% winners and if the host is coming off a conference win and covered the spread by 7 or fewer points has earned a 5-10 ATS mark for 33% winners. So, fading these undefeated teams is the way to go late in the regular season. From the predictive model, we learn that Maryland has gone 8-2 ATS as a home dog when they have had fewer turnovers than the guest and 12-6 ATS when having the same or fewer turnovers.
11-15-23	Buffalo +8 v. Miami-OH	Top	10-23	Loss	-110	5 h 30 m	Show
Buffalo vs Miami (Ohio) 7 ET, Wednesday 8-Unit Best bet on the Buffalo Bulls plus the 9 points and is valid if the price stays above 8 points. Betting on a road team that has struggled to win 25 to 40% of their games, facing a winning record host and has seen their last three games play Under the total by at least 21 points in total has earned a solid 86-56-2 ATS for 61% winners since 2014. If the host has covered at least 5 of their last 6 games ATS, our road warriors have gone 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets.
11-14-23	Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4	Top	0-24	Win	100	5 h 57 m	Show
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois 7 PM \| ESPNU Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, IL 8-Unit best Bet on Northern Illinois minus the From the predictive models we are looking for Northern Illinois to sacore at least 30 points and gain at least 7.5 yards per pass tonight. In past home games in which NIU achieved these measures has led them to a highly profitable 54-10 and 46-18 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2006 and 9-3 ATS over the past 5 seasons. They are also 13-5-1 ATS for 72% when scoring 30 or more points and their foe had 60 or more penalty yards called over the past five seasons. Take Northern Illinois
11-14-23	Toledo v. Bowling Green +10	Top	32-31	Win	100	5 h 56 m	Show
Toledo vs Bowling Green Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH 7:00 PM ESPN2 8-Unit best bet on Blowing Green plus the 10.5 points and is valid down to 9.5 points. Betting on home dogs that have won three straight games that are taking on a foe that is coming off one or more consecutive wins has gone 95-61-2 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 3.5 and 12 points, they have gone to a 57-30-1 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in these games has been 50 or more points, our home dogs have gone 43-20-1 ATS for 68.3% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet Bowling Green.
11-11-23	USC +16 v. Oregon	Top	27-36	Win	100	13 h 6 m	Show
USC vs Oregon 8-Unit best bet on USC plus the 15.5 points and is good as long as USC is a double-digit underdog. This is an insane amount of points to be giving USC, who has stumbled lately, and who is getting mispriced because of Oregon’s monster blowout win of Cal last week (Oregon was our PAC-12 MAX Bet of the Month). Before the season began, the Circa had this game priced as Oregon favored by just two points and this meteoric rise is presenting a terrific betting opportunity. USC has not covered the spread in seven straight games and the OVER has won the money in these games. Betting on road teams using the money line that allowed 42 or more points in their last game and have outscored their foes by 7 or more points in the first half of action has earned a 60-33 record for 65% winning bets and has made a highly profitable 42 units on the money line. From the predictive model we learn that USC is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have scored 31 or more points and won the turnover battle in games played over the past five seasons.
11-11-23	Texas -12 v. TCU	Top	29-26	Loss	-110	10 h 8 m	Show
Texas vs TCU Amon G. Carter Stadium, Forth Worth, TX 7:30 PM EST \| ABC 8-Unit Best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 12.5 points Betting on a ranked double-digit favorite facing an unranked foe. Our favorite is gaining an average of 4.8 yards per rush, outgained their previous foe by 125 or more yards on the ground, is now facing an average ground attack averaging 4.3 to 4.8 YPRA has earned a solid 34-20-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting road favorites between 10 and 21.5 points that have won four of their last 5 games with the current game taking place in November has earned a 49-6 SU record and 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.
11-11-23	Washington State +2.5 v. California	Top	39-42	Loss	-105	7 h 27 m	Show
Washington State vs California California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 4:00 PM EST 10-Unit Best Bet on Washington State plus the points, currently priced as 2.5-point dogs. Betting on road underdogs that are averaging at least 400 total yards per game and are coming off a very poor offensive game in which they averaged 3.85 or fewer yards per play has earned a 35-12-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2015. If the game occurs from Week 9 on to the end of the season has earned a 19-5-3 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets since 2015. Betting on losing record road teams priced between the 3’s and is facing a host that is coming off a road blowout loss of 28 or more points, and that host has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has earned a 37-13-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 years and is 17-5 ATS over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive playbook, we are expecting WSU to score at least 28 points and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which WSU met or excee3ded th4ese projections has led them to a 59-15 SU record and a 57-17 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets.
11-11-23	Texas Tech v. Kansas -4	Top	16-13	Loss	-102	3 h 37 m	Show
Texas Tech vs Kansas Noon ET David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium 8-Unit Best Bet on Kansas minus the points, currently priced at -4 and is good up to and including 6 points. That steam move is not expected to happen and see the market locked in at -4. Betting on home teams from week 8 on out to the end of the regular season that are averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game, allowed less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG has earned a solid 49-15 SU record and 43-18-3 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2015. If our team is in a conference matchup and favored by any amount, the record improves to a highly profitable 25-8-1 ATS for 76% winning bets. Take Kansas
11-09-23	Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette -9.5	Top	34-31	Loss	-110	8 h 47 m	Show
Southern Mississippi vs LA Lafayette Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA 7:30 PM \| ESPNU 8-Unit Best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns minus the points. The Cajuns are averaging 197 rushing yards per game ranking 14th nationally and will be facing a defense that ranks 114th nationally allowing 186 RYPG. So, the models are projecting that the Cajuns will wear down the SMU defensive front and gain over 200 RY. The models also project that the Cajuns will gain 450 or more total yards and commit no more than single turnover. In past games, the Cajuns are 54-10 SU and 47-15-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and gaining 450 or more total yards. In addition, if they committed no more than a single turnover, they have gone 34-5 SU and 32-7 ATS for 82% winning bets.
11-07-23	Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3	Top	28-38	Win	100	3 h 49 m	Show
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU 8-Unit best bet on Western Michigan Broncos minus the -3 points. From the predictive models, we are expecting WMU to score 31 or more points, The market has a 30 to 27 WMU home win given the 57.5 point total and WMU favored by three points, In past games in which WMU scored 31 points and had the same or fewer turnovers has led them to an outstanding 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.
11-04-23	Kansas v. Iowa State -3	Top	28-21	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
Kansas vs Iowa State 7 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on Iowa State -3 points. I like this bet up to and including 4 points. Betting on home teams that are coming off a double-digit road win and hosting a team coming off an upset win over a conference rival priced as 6 or more-point underdogs has earned a 109-20 SU record good for 85% wins and 86-42-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the past 43 seasons (since 1980). If that foe is ranked in the Top-25, the home team has gone 7-1 ATS and SU.
11-04-23	California v. Oregon -24.5	Top	19-63	Win	100	9 h 50 m	Show
California vs Oregon 5:30 PM, Autzen Stadium 10-Unit Best Bet on Oregon minus the points Bet on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game and whose defense has held their previous three opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards in each game has produced a highly profitable 63-5 SU record and 46-18-4 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2010. This system has had 18 consecutive seasons of profitability. At No.6 Oregon has all the motivation to play well and four all four quarters even if they do run the score up on California. The CFP committee served notice that margin of victory over conference foes does matter when they selected Ohio State as No. 1 this past week. Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons. Cal is just 4-14 ATS home a home loss, but did cover the spread. They lost 50-49 to USC last week. Oregon head coach Lanning is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in each of their last three games. Betting on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that have scored 31 or more points in each of their two previous games and has a great defense that is allowing an average 16 PPG on the season and is facing a foe that has a bad defense allowing 28 to 34 PPG has produced a 61-3 SU record and 41-23 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 1992. If our favorite is hosting the game, their record has been 32-1 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1992. The clincher here is if our home favorite has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, the record soars to 35-1 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets regardless of game site. The current market implies a 42-18 Oregon win and the predictive model shows a high probability that Oregon is going to score at least 35 points in this contest. Even when they score 28 or more points they have earned a 28-15-1 ASTS mark for 65% winners; 24-9 ATS mark when scoring 35 or more points; 14-3 ATS when scoring 42 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. When at home and scoring 42 or more points they are 8-2 ATS for 80%.
11-04-23	Missouri v. Georgia UNDER 56	Top	21-30	Win	100	7 h 38 m	Show
No. 12 Missouri vs No. 2 Georgia Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA 3:30 PM CBS Sports 8-Unit best bet on the Under 55.5 points Betting the Under in game with a total of 55 or more points featuring ranked teams and the home team is favored by double-digits has produced a 29-17-2 Under record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our home team is ranked in the Top-10, the Under has gone 25-9-1 for 73% winning bets. If that home team is ranked in the Top-3, the Under has gone 14-5-1 for 74% winners. Betting the Under in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points that has one team, Missouri, allowing 330 to 390 yards per game and is coming off a game in which they outgained that foe by 125 or more yards, and is now facing a conference foe that has an elite defense allowing 280 or fewer yards per game has produced a 27-14-3 Under record good for 66% winning bets.
11-04-23	Florida State -21.5 v. Pittsburgh	Top	24-7	Loss	-110	7 h 36 m	Show
Florida State vs Pittsburgh Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ESPN 8-Unit best bet on FSU minus the points No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season having to face two powerhouse ranked teams starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4 and won them both on the road. Having played an won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs. Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida. FSU ranks 4th nationally averaging 41.5 PPG and rank 18th allowing 18.3 PPG having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points. FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions and earning an 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earning a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position. FSU has six receivers, who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers, who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game. A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: · Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games. · Is favored by 19.5 or more-points. · Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games. · Our team is facing a losing record host
11-01-23	Ball State v. Bowling Green OVER 39.5	Top	21-24	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
Ball State vs Bowling Green 7:00 PM 8-Unit best bet on the Over, currently priced at 40 points. Betting the Over between 35.5 and 42 points in a game from week 7 on that involved two struggling offensive teams that are gaining between 280 and 330 YPG has produced a 70-35 Over record good for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 19-7 for 73% winners when BGU has passed for 270 or more yards and scored 25 or more points in home games. In road games in which they allowed 25 or more points and 270 or more passing yards; Ball State has seen the Over go 23-10 for 70% winning bets.
10-28-23	Oregon State v. Arizona +3	Top	24-27	Win	100	32 h 6 m	Show
No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona 10:30 PM ESPN 10-Unit best Bet on the Wildcats plus the 3 points Betting on non-ranked home underdogs bet3een pick and 4.5 points that are facing a foe that is ranked and coming off a win that covered the spread by 3.5 to 10 points has produced a 27-20 SU record and 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets sine 1993. Betting on home underdogs that are taking on a foe that allowed 5.5 or more RYPA in each of their last two games has gone 31-44 SU and 47-27-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If facing a conference foe these home dogs have gone 29-35 SU and 43-20-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If home team is priced as a 5.5 or fewer-point dog, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. Oregon State ranks 14th in scoring offense averaging 35.3 PPG and has the best red zone scoring offense in the nation. They produce scoring drives with their solid rushing attack ranking 28th gaining an average of 183 yards per game. However, Arizona has a great defensive front that ranks 19th nationally allowing just 99 YPG. Arizona can bring the heat effectively too in passing downs getting a sack on 9% on all plays run ranking 21st nationally. Plus, they get the job done in preventing multiple first down scoring drives averaging just 45% of the game on the field and ranks 13th best nationally. So, the OSU ground game is not going to have an easy time running the ball in this matchup – not saying they won’t gain over 100 yards, but it will be a struggle for them to do so. Arizona can run the ball and have gained 1159 yards on 227 carries for a solid 5.1 YPRA. Jonah Coleman is the featured back and has gained 433 yards on 65 rushes for a 6.7 yards per carry with 3 TDs. Arizona ranks 8th nationally completing 72% of their passes and rank 37th allowing a sack on just 4.6% of plays run.
10-28-23	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5	Top	42-46	Loss	-108	30 h 31 m	Show
North Carolina vs Georgia Tech 8:00 PM – ACCN Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 63.5 points The Tarheels are coming off an inexplicably bad loss losing to one-win UVA 31-27 at home. So, the CFP playoff aspirations may be dashed, but they still can have a great season and possibly an ACC Championship. Head Coach Mack Brown will have his troops fully prepared and focused to make sure they do not suffer any hangover form the horrid loss. Great head coaches always focus on the defensive side of the ball following a horrid loss because it is the defensive failure that contributes the most the loss. Betting the UNDER with a road team in a conference matchup that is coming off a horrid loss to a conference foe priced as a 17.5 or more-point favorite and facing a foe that has won 50% or fewer of their games on the season has earned a solid 10-2-1 for 83% winning bets. Betting the Under in a game with a total between 63 and 70.5 points with the road team being a solid offensive team gaining at least 6.3 yards per play and have gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games has earned a 62-33-1 UNDER record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game takes place from week 7 on out to the end of the season the Under has gone 42-21-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-28-23	Tennessee v. Kentucky +3.5	Top	33-27	Loss	-106	29 h 32 m	Show
No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky Kroger Field, Lexington, KY 7:00 PM \| ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Wildcats plus the points currently priced at +3.5 points. Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. If our team is playing at home, their record soars to 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.
10-28-23	Arkansas State +2 v. UL-Monroe	Top	34-24	Win	100	27 h 30 m	Show
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe 5:00 PM EST Week 9 8-Unit Best bet on Arkansas State plus the points Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has scored 24 or fewer points in total over their past 2 games has improved the results to 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.
10-26-23	Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech	Top	10-38	Loss	-110	4 h 23 m	Show
Syracuse vs Virginia Tech 7:30 EST, ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Orange plus the points Syracuse has been coming up on the radar more so this season than in others and that’s ok no matter if they are 4-3 or 7-0 or even 0-7 as the models present us with opportunities to exploit based on the situations teams find themselves in any matchup. After starting out 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, the Orange suddenly ran out of fire power on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 points in a 31-14 loss to Clemson, then 12 days ago lost to No. 4 ranked FSU 41-3 as failed to cover as 19-point dogs at Tallahassee. In the second to last game, they lost at UNC 40-7 as 9.5-point road dogs. They had five turnovers in the first four games and then turned it over 7 times in the past three games. So, at this point everyone is highly suspect of the Orange and rightfully so based on recency bias alone. V-Tech is not in the same class as UNC, Clemson, and FSU and few teams in the ACC, if any, would have been able to win on the road against those programs in consecutive weeks. The Orange have extra motivation to win the game and get one step closer to earning a bowl game appearance while at 3-4 V-Tech has little hope of getting to six wins knowing they are on the road at Louisville and BC, then a home finale against a solid NC State program and then a possible win at UVA. Betting on road dogs between 2.5 and 10 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes and have played UNDER in three of their last four games has produced a 41-50 SU record and a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. The base system mentioned first above has had just one losing record season going 2-5 ATS in 2021 over the past 10 seasons. The Orange are 41-23 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.75 or more YPPL. V-Tech is on an 0-6 ATS streak after having won three of their last 4 games.
10-24-23	Liberty v. Western Kentucky +6	Top	42-29	Loss	-110	7 h 15 m	Show
Liberty vs Western Kentucky 7:30 PM EST on ESPNU Houchens Industries – L.T. Smith Stadium 8-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off three consecutive wis over conference foes and has nine or fewer returning starters from last season have gone 52-20-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 30 seasons and is 15-3-1 ATS for 83% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe coming off two consecutive games in which they had a turnover margin of one or better has earned a highly profitable 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. Western Kentucky is 21-7 ATS over the past three seasons for 75% winning bets in games that they score 28 or more points and the predictive model projects an 82% probability that they will score 30 or more points.
10-21-23	Duke v. Florida State -14	Top	20-38	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
Duke vs Florida State Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL 7:30 PM EST, ABC 8-Unit Best Bet on the Seminoles minus the 14 points In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS. Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State. FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24.
10-21-23	Michigan v. Michigan State +25	Top	49-0	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI 7:30 EST NBC 8-Unit best bet on the Spartans plus the 24.5 points. Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points. Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season.
10-21-23	Penn State +5 v. Ohio State	Top	12-20	Loss	-110	4 h 45 m	Show
Penn State vs Ohio State Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH Noon ET 10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points. Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too. PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners. The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns. Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage. Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners. PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally. PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points.
10-20-23	SMU -23 v. Temple	Top	55-0	Win	100	5 h 46 m	Show
SMU vs Temple Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 7:00 PM EST, ESPN 8-Unit Best Bet on the SMU Mustangs minus the points Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.
10-19-23	James Madison v. Marshall +3.5	Top	20-9	Loss	-110	7 h 19 m	Show
James Madison vs Marshall Jean C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV 7 EST on ESPN 8-Unit Best Bet on Marshall plus the points JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards. Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt
10-18-23	Florida International +5.5 v. Sam Houston State	Top	33-27	Win	100	31 h 22 m	Show
Florida International vs. Sam Houston State Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX 8-Unit Best Bet on FIU plus the points, currently priced at 5. With the total priced at 41 points, scoring volatility will be below normal and limits the opportunity for a live in-game first half bet. So, I recommend placing the 8-Units all at once preflop. Betting on dogs of 4.5 to 9.5 points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season that are coming off back-to-back conference losses of 10 or more points have gone 27-33 SU and 42-17-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015.
10-14-23	USC +3 v. Notre Dame	Top	20-48	Loss	-110	11 h 56 m	Show
USC vs Notre Dame Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Damer, IN 7:30 EST NBC/Peacock 8-Unit Best Bet on the Trojans plus the 2.5 points. This game is a matchup of ranked teams with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most-difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball, but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Smith. Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 1. Bet on a road teams priced between the 4’s. 2. That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game. 3. The game is a non-conference matchup.
10-14-23	Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5	Top	21-38	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
No. 14 Louisville vs Pittsburgh Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pitt Panthers plus the six points and sprinkle the money line. 6:30 PM EST Betting on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off two straight double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 and with the total of at least 40 points has earned a strong 21-25 SU record and 32-12-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Now, be sure to be sitting down for this subset. If our home dog has won no more than one game on the season, they soar to an unreal 10-9 SU and 15-3-1 ATS record good for 83% winning bets.
10-14-23	Oregon v. Washington -3	Top	33-36	Push	0	48 h 26 m	Show
No. 8 Oregon vs No. 7 Washington 8:00 EST, Thursday 10-Unit Best Bet on Washington minus the points, currently priced as 3-point favorites. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. If our team is playing at home and facing a conference foe, their record has gone 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that Washington is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% when scoring 35 or more points and gaining at least 7.4 yards per play. Washington is also 7-1 ATS when having 10 or more first downs and gaining at least 6 YPPL. Last, Washington is 31-2 SU and 28-4-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having 10 or more first downs than their foes. 10-UNIT PAC-12 MAX Best Bet Game of the Month
10-14-23	Troy -6 v. Army	Top	19-0	Win	100	7 h 58 m	Show
Troy vs Army Michie Stadium, West Point, NY 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on Troy minus the 6 points Betting on road teams with a win percentage of at least 60% and coming off a conference win allowing less than 10 points has earned an outstanding 58-34-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the host has a losing record on the season (Army), our road teams have gone 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 55 or fewer points, our road team has produced a highly profitable 10-0 ATS. Take Troy.
10-14-23	Syracuse +19 v. Florida State	Top	3-41	Loss	-110	3 h 29 m	Show
Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Florida State Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Orange +18.5 points From the predictive model, we are expecting the Orange offense to outperform the market’s expectations by scoring 26 or more points in this game. Betting OVER the Orange team total is valid. Consider betting 5 to 6 units on Syracuse plus the points and the remaining 1 to 2 units OVER the team total. Now, in past games in which the Orange scored 26 or more points and scored in each quarter has produced a 40-7 SU record, 38-8-1 ATS mark for 83% winning bets. In road games dressed as a conference dog and scoring in at least 3 of the 4 quarters has produced a 7-7 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets. A little sprinkle on the money line is warranted – just in case.
10-14-23	Indiana v. Michigan -33	Top	7-52	Win	100	3 h 28 m	Show
Indiana vs Michigan Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Wolverines minus the points Betting on a team that has won their last three games by at least 21 points and facing a foe that lost their last game by 17 or more points has produced an exceptional 77-8 SU record and a 59-25-1 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2010. Now, if that foe is coming off a loss to a conference foe the record improves to a stellar 47-17-1 ATS for 73.4% winning bets since 2010. Drilling a bit deeper into the data, if our team is favored by 21 or more points, they soar to 44-0 SU and 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2010. A second algorithm has produced a 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to bet on an undefeated team favored by 21 or more points that has won their last two games by 28 or more points and facing a foe that allowed 37 or more points in their last game.
10-13-23	Fresno State -4.5 v. Utah State	Top	37-32	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
Fresno State vs Utah State 8:00 PM EST, Friday 8-Unit Best Bet on Fresno State minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite. The following betting algorithm has produced a 278-70 SU record for 80% wins and 207-137-4 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG and facing a foe that is coming off back-to-back games in which 60 or more points were scored in each game. If our road favorite is facing a conference foe and coming off an upset loss, the record improves to 33-6 SU for 85% wins and 26-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2012. FSU head coach Tedford is 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winners as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. USU head coach Anderson is just 2-11 ATS after gaining 575 or more3 total yards in their previous game. Ryan’s NCAAF Friday Night Lights Best Bet
10-12-23	West Virginia v. Houston +3	Top	39-41	Win	100	5 h 55 m	Show
West Virginia vs Houston 7:00 EST, Thursday 8-Unit Best Bet on Houston plus the points Houston is 18-6 ATS for 75% winners when facing a team that averages fewer than one forced turnover per game; 32-16-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games; 11-1 SU in home games following two straight games in which they did not turn the ball over more than once in games played over the past three seasons. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021.
10-10-23	Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State	Top	31-13	Win	100	8 h 4 m	Show
Liberty at Jacksonville State 7:30 EST, Tuesday Burgess-Snow Field, Jacksonville, AL 8-Unit Best Bet on Liberty minus the points, currently -6 Let’s get right into the betting algorithm supporting this best bet opportunity produced from the predictive model. This one has earned a 33-33 record, but a highly profitable 41-21-4 ATS for 66.1% winning bets over the past 8 seasons going back to 2014. The requirements are to bet on teams in a matchup of soldi teams that each have won 80% or more of their games on the season and with the foe having covered the spread by 49 or more points over the past five games. Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 to 9.5 points, the record soars to a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Liberty is undefeated at 5-0 and has covered the spread in four of those five games losing to the spread last game against Sam Houston State. JAX State is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. They have covered their last five games by 62.5 points and by 67 points on the season. So, this is the achievement level in which we would expect JAX State to experience some form of regression and a market that has now over valued them. In fact, home dogs of 6 or more points that have covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last 6 games have gone just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% wins.
10-07-23	Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL -20	Top	23-20	Loss	-108	10 h 41 m	Show
Georgia Tech vs No. 17 Miami (FLA) 8:00 PM EST 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Hurricanes minus the 20 points Betting on home favorites of 11.5 or more points in games with a posted total between 42.5 and 59.5 points and hosting a foe that is fresh off a humiliating loss of 17 or more points as a home favorite of 10 or more points have earned an outstanding 47-4 SU record and a 37-13-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 36-1 SU and 27-9-1 ATS since 2006. If this game is a matchup of conference foes, the favorite has gone 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model, we are expecting the Hurricanes to score 35 or more points and when they have in home games have earned a highly profitable 4-0 SU and ATS and covering the number by an average of 9 PPG under current head coach Mario Cristobal.
10-07-23	Vanderbilt v. Florida -17.5	Top	14-38	Win	100	6 h 49 m	Show
Vanderbilt vs Florida 8-Unit best bet on the Florida Gators minus the points 4:00 EST SECN Betting on conference favorites between 13.5 and 19.5 points that are playing with revenge from a last season loss priced as a double-digit favorite and taking on a foe that is fresh off a loss priced as a dog have gone a highly profitable 31-4 SU and 25-10 ATS for 71.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons of action and 6-2 ASTS over the past five seasons. Florida is 16-3-1 ATS in home games when facing a poor rushing team that is gaining an average of just 120 or fewer yards per game. Vanderbilt is 0-6 ATS this season and 13-35 ATS following a game in which they have allowed 325 or more passing yards. Road conference dogs are just 18-29-3 ATS for 38% if they have lost 6 or more consecutive games to the spread, lost 4 or more consecutive games SU and have two or fewer wins on the season.
10-07-23	Washington State v. UCLA -3	Top	17-25	Win	100	5 h 50 m	Show
Washington State vs UCLA 3:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on UCLA minus the 3.5 points Again, consider betting 5.5 units preflop on UCLA and then look to get 1.5 more units on UCLA at Pick-em and then 1-Unit at +2.5. This game has a total of 60+ points and the scoring volatility is coming to be quite high so let it work in your favor. Unranked home favorites facing a conference foe that is ranked 10th to 25th in the current poll and with a game total between 52.5 and 65 points have gone 31-20 ATS for 61% winners.
10-07-23	LSU -5.5 v. Missouri	Top	49-39	Win	100	2 h 52 m	Show
LSU vs Missouri Noon PM EST, 10/7 8-Unit best bet on the LSU Tigers minus the points. Consider betting 6-units preflop on the Tigers and then look for Missouri to score the first TD of the game and get the remaining 2-units on the Tigers at pick-em or as close to pick-em as possible. Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 41-14 SU record and am32-21-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 8-3 ATS over the past seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites in a conference matchup that are ranked lower in the current AP poll. LSU is 23rd while undefeated Missouri is 21st. if our team is coming off a loss, they soar to 13-5-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and if they scored 27 or more points in that loss are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS LSU has two losses and Missouri has none, but LSU has played a much more difficult schedule. You may recall we had Ole Miss as a 10-UNIT MAX Bet winner over LSU last week and with the other loss taking place in Week 1 over highly ranked FSU. There have been reports of player descension in the locker room over head coach Kelly. I do not put much weight in the handicapping of this game, because at the end of the day, many of the players in that locker room have much bigger goals of playing in the NFL.
10-07-23	Oklahoma v. Texas -4.5	Top	34-30	Loss	-110	2 h 48 m	Show
Oklahoma vs Texas Noon EST, October 7, Week 6 8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the points Betting on teams that have won 80% or more of their games and facing a foe that has covered the spread by 49 or more points spanning their last five games and also has won 80% or more of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 29-13-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Teams, like Texas, who they and their current foe in week 6 action has no more than one loss and with that foe having covered the spread by 42 or more points over their first five games has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, teams, like Texas, who are coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more rushing and 300 or more passing yards in their previous game have gone 96-29 (77%) and 71-52-2 ATS for 58% winning bets. If facing an undefeated conference foe has gone 6-1 SU and ATS for 86% winning bets. In the red river rivalry, Texas is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 31 or more points and the predictive model shows an 84% probability that Texas will score 31 or more points. Even if they score 28 or more points, Texas has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS for 85% winners.
10-07-23	Western Michigan v. Mississippi State -21	Top	28-41	Loss	-110	2 h 48 m	Show
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State Noon EST, Saturday 8-Unit best bet on Mississippi State minus the points Betting on favorites between 16 and 24.5 points and with a total between 48 and 61.5 points that are coming off a terrible loss of 20 or more points to a conference foe priced as an underdog and with the game occurring during the regular season have gone 59-2 SU, 45-16 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 22 seasons. The total of 57 points and State being favored by 20 points implies a State 38.5-18.5 point win. The predictive model shows an 82% probability that State will score at least 31 points and in past games in which they have done this, they have gone 40-6 SU and 36-9 ATS for 80% winning bets and if on the road facing a non-conference foe has produced a 17-1 SU record and a 13-5 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets.
10-06-23	Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5	Top	21-29	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State 7:30 PM EST, 10/6 8-Unit best bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys plus 11.5 points. Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 33-45 SU record and a 47-25-6 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has a struggling defense that is allowing between 5.6 and 6.25 YPPL and is facing a team that has a solid offensive unit gaining at least 6.2 YPPL and has a defense that allowed 6.75 YPPL in each of their last two games. Over the past three seasons this algorithm has produced an 8-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets.

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