35* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Many times, the money line spreads become excessively wide when the line is double digits. In this game, look for a ML price of +400 to construct the combination wager. +375 is an ‘ok’ level, but look for +400 at your books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 31-33 mark for just 48% winners, BUT has made a whopping 60 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a very nice +300 DOG play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (BOWLING GREEN) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NUI is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season. Take Northern Illinois University.

35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by more than 6 points. As many of you know, I did not like seeing Notre Dame in the Top-4 spots in Week1 and Week 2 playoff releases. Not because I dislike the program, but because my data and facts pointed otherwise. Iowa has finally earned their media right to be among the play-off four with a great road win at Lincoln and with the Cornhuskers fully rested off of the BYE. We had Iowa as another 35* ATS winner as well. We also had Boston College in a near upset over Notre Dame, in a game where the Irish had five turnovers. Now, there is no way I see the Irish having 5 turnovers, let alone maybe two turnovers in this game this week. But, what I did see was a highly unfocused team with numerous dropped passes and poor route execution, and not having the focus and will to win despite the seriousness of the game. Stanford has tremendous speed on offense. Notre Dame has yet to play a team with this much elite quickness and speed. With Christian McCaffrey running past defenders and into Heisman Trophy consideration and freshman Bryce Love taking advantage of his limited opportunities to deliver big plays in a flash, the Cardinal have become more difficult to defend than ever. I just do not see the Irish defense holding up against the constant pressure of the Cardinal offensive attack. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cardinal is a stout 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season. There have been 17 games where the Cardinal has gained 200-250 rushing yards in a game since 1992. This is rare, but the algorithm shows a very strong probability that it will happen. As shown above they are 13-4 ATS when it does occur. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at a stunning upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a hot team, having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games; PSU head coach Franklin is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. PSU has the elite defensive unit to disrupt the flow of the MSU offense scheme. PSU also has a potential top-10 draft pick in QB Hackenberg, who I fully expect to play his best game yet this season. PSU simply has nothing to lose being bowl eligible and can essentially take chances and play a focused non-pressure type of game. That is the worst foe a team fighting for the top-4 in the CFP rankings to face. Take Penn State.

35* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a major BIG TEN Conference game set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IOWA will win this game by 4 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play it is a bit different in that you need access to the adjusted lines if possible. The adjusted line is showing Iowa – 7 ½ +220. So, my suggestion is to make a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEBRASKA) in a game involving two good rushing teams gaining between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR after 7+ games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 83-25 ATS (+55.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 16-63 ATS (-53.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points. Take Iowa.

35* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA well win this game by three or more points.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play there is NO opportunity for this type of combination wager since the ML is nowhere close the minimum +145 threshold needed to validate the wager. So, simply play this with the line you get as a 35* wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 ATS mark good for 68.4% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCLA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. The number 28 comes up frequently in the NCAA matchups and teams that are more capable of exceeding that mark consistently have greater probabilities of covering ATS. In this case, Utah is coming off a horrid double OT loss to Arizona, which could possibly take them out of the PAC-12 Championship game and certainly the Final-4 playoff rankings. They lost RB Booker to a knee injury on top of everything else and I believe it will be extremely difficult for the Utes to recover from the 'hangover' of last Saturday. Take UCLA. 

35* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Wisconsin in Big TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a moderate shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a  31* play on the line and a 4* play on the massive money line is very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-18 for 56% winners and has made a whopping 57 units/unit wagered averaging a +325 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins and is now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Northwestern is a solid 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Wisconsin.

35* graded play on USC as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* graded play using the line and a 8* graded play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-28 mark using the money line good for 53% winners, but has made a whopping 58 units/unit wagered averaging a +270 DOG play over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a solid 17-3 against the money line (+12.5 Units) when they gain 500 to 550 total yards; 35-8 against the money line (+20.3 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fuerther, we see that USC is near-perfect  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. Take the TROJANS.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan in Big TEN Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great chance to win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher with the money line. I have seen +155 and higher so this combination wager is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 mark good for 79.4% winners using the money line and has made 21.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (MICHIGAN) and is a solid offensive team gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a solid defense allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 YPP and after 7+ games and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 13-2 making 11.6 units/unit wagered over the last 10 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. PSU is a solid  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. I fully realize that PSU is 0-4 after their BYE week under Franklin, but this is a vastly different team with an elite defense that is fully rested. Michigan's last two opponents were unranked and the Wolverines had to fight for their Big Ten lives just to win. Now, they enter a fully rested and highly motivated PSU team play their last home game of the season and it also being Senior Day. I also took a look at the emergence of Michigan receiver Chesson, who had 4 TD catches, 207 yards on 10 catches in their double OT win at Indiana just last week. PSU defense will contain him and play very physically at the LOS. I think you will see a cover-2 variation where the corners will be able to bump him at the LOS knowing they have deep safety help. PSU has been able to stop the run without safety help this season. Take the Lions.

50* graded play on East Carolina as they take on UCF in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ECU will win this game by 20 or more points. UCF is winless and they rank in the bottom of the national rankings in all meaningful stat categories. Their defense ranks 116th in scoring defense allowing 38.7 PPG, 117th with a 0.542 points-per-play ratio, 115th allowing 48% third-down conversions, 10th allowing 212 rushing yards per game, and 93rd allowing 257 passing yards per game. Now, ECU is not a blazing offensive powerhouse, but they have massive matchup advantages. They rank 39th converting 43% of all third down situations and rank 33rd gaining 261 passing yards per game. Without wasting more space and your team, the matchup on the other side is equally as favorable for ECU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-24 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (E CAROLINA) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCF is just 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. McNeill is a solid McNeill is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of ECU. Safe to say that ECU will gain well over 100 rushing yards in this contest. Take ECU Pirates. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. Monday we had Texans in a huge +400 money line play combined with the 28* line play, and then last night we had a significant dog winner with Ohio University. To validate the combination wager based on the risk/.reward profiles, we need to see +145 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing just +130, so this line would have to move to 3 1/2 and that really is not expected. If it does, then consider playing a 30* amount on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (W MICHIGAN) off a home loss by 14 or more points, a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games and is now playing a winning record team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Toledo as they take on Bowling Green in NCAA MAC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at a major road win over BG. Given this favorable projection and in the same manner as my most previous upset alert plays on the Detroit Lions and last night's big SU win with the Texans, I like making this a combination wager. It is comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 mark good for 74% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (TOLEDO) excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo has the ground attack to gain a sizable edge in TOP and keep BG offense off the field. They rank 14th in the nation averaging 5.3 YPR and 20th gaining 217 rushing yards per game. BG defense ranks 63rd allowing 4.3 YPR and 63rd allowing 170 rushing yards per game. This is the dominant matchup that will lead Toledo to the ATS win and upset. Take Toledo. 

35* graded play on Idaho as they host Appalachian State in NCAA action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a very high probability that Idaho will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If a money line is available, which is a stretch given the magnitude of the line, consider maing this a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Each year for the past five seasons, I have had a 20+ DOG win outright. This does not mean that I will have one this year and of course I never know when it will occur. Being prepared for that massive upset is the point and I why I am suggesting the combination wager. I am seeing +900/950 at several books, so hopefully yours will offer you this opportunity as well. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 ATS mark good for 79.4% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This system has gone 14-2 ATS over the L5 seasons and 50% of all plays made by the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Idaho has been quite good on offense this year ranking 57th in the nation scoring 29 PPG and 41st with a 61.6% pass completion percentage. They will throw the ball again and again in this matchup and will be able to move the chains against App State. This type of fast paced offense is expected to wear down the APP defensive front and secondary where they are already thin. Take Idaho. 

35* graded play on Troy as they host Georgia Southern in SUN Belt Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at up[setting GS. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-17 mark good for 69% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 1992. It has averaged a +118 DOG play as well. Play on a home team using the money line (TROY) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Troy is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Toy is also 10-2 against the money line (+11.0 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points;  6-1 against the money line (+9.4 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. GS ranks first in the nation averaging 6.9 YPR, but this is quite misleading given their very weak SOS. They run the ball on 85% of their plays and really have no passing threat. Troy's strength on defense is certainly stopping the run where they rank 53rd allowing 4.1 YPR. They also have a a solid pass rush that ranks 24th getting a sack on 8% of all plays run. This also means that Troy can use that penetration to fill gaps and seal perimeters against the GS ground attack. They will contain the ground game more than enough for the offense to score points and remain fully competitive. Take Troy. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Bowling Green in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. If you can get +145 or higher on the money line then I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (W MICHIGAN) after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BG is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. WMU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Further, WMU is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has one of the best offenses in the country led by their passing attack. However, WMU is solid defending the pass and rank 45th allowing 211 passing yards per game. The WMU ground attack will be the dominating factor leading WMU to a win. They rank 17th gaining 5.2 YPR and will also use play action to exploit a BG secondary that ranks 104th allowing 269 passing yards per game. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Ohio University as they host Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kent State is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-33 ATS (-26.3 Units) when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Ohio University is a solid  25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards. Kent State is a struggling offensive team to say the least. They rank 125th in scoring at 12.2 PPG, 124th gaining 124 yards per game, and 126th with a 0.179 points per play ratio. I believe Ohio will contain any offensive threat by Kent State. Ohio has a vastly better offense and one that can wear down the Kent State defensive front over the course of the game. They rank 58th gaining 399 yards per game and Kent ranks 44th allowing 375 yards per game. Kent just will not have the offensive fire power to keep up with Ohio on the scoreboard. Take Ohio. 

35* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in a monster showdown in the SEC set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows that LSU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I love making these DOGS into combination wagers using a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven MONEY LINE system posting a 21-17 mark good for 55% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged an even more amazing +338 DOG play. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (LSU) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has gone 28-9 and has made 20 units/unit wagered averaging a +104 DOG play. Play on a road team using the money line (LSU) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system is 2-0 this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Les Miles is Miles is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of LSU. Alabama has a strong defensive unit, but I do not expect them to hold up against arguably the best offensive team in the nation. LSU ranks second in the nation averaging 0.59 points/play, 6th averaging 7.1 yards per play, and 2nd averaging 6.7 YPR. The LSU defense is a quite strong in their own right and ranks just below Alabama in several of categorical gradings. Yet, the LSU unit will be going against a much weaker offensive unit than that being faced by Alabama today. So, there is a much greater chance LSU dominates on defense and LSU just wears down the Alabama defensive front. Take LSU. 

35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm projects a strong probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (TEXAS A&M) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; Sumlin is just Sumlin is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of Texas A&M. Now, here is an exceptional money line system that uncerscores the chance for the SU Auburn win. It has gone 36-37 for 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 45.4 units per unit wagered since 2005. It has averaged an amazing +228 DOG play with that DOG winning the game 49% of the time. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (AUBURN) with a terrible defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Take Auburn.

35* graded play on Clemson as they host FSU in a huge showdown in the ACC set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 14 points.  If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. The following technical research reinforces the graded ALGO play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (CLEMSON) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 50% of these plays based on the system criteria covered the spread by at least 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a money making 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;    26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Further, we see that FSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is a rock solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game. The Clemson defense is the dominant reason they are ranked No.1 in the nation. They have allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down just 20% on the season and ranks BEST in the nation. FSU is not a strong running team. They rank 48th getting 180 yards per game, but I fully expect Clemson's defensive front to dominate and force FSU into third-and-long situations. On the other side of the ball, Clemson has a punishing ground attack ranking 21st and gaining 216 yards per game. Despite Clemson rushing the ball nearly 60% of all plays, they rank 34th averaging 263 passing yards per game. This is in large part to the play action routes that open up the middle of the field due to the defense having to play safeties in the box. Take Clemson. 

35* graded play on San jose State as they host BYU in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SJST will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you can get action on the money line then make this a combination wager comprised of a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU has been a money burning 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. SJST has an excellent ground attack that matches up quite well against the BYU run defense. It will be that ground attack that then will open up play action in vertical routes for SJST. Moving the chains will critical and SJST has done much better than BYU in 3rd down conversions. BYU ranks 90th converting 37% of those plays while SJST ranks 29th converting 44% of these plays. Further, SJST pass defense ranks best in the nation allowing just 131 passing yards per game. Granted, this is in large part due to their struggles to stop the run. BYU ranks a weak 101st in rushing yards per game. Take San Jose State. 

35* graded play on Kent State as they host Buffalo in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that KS will win this game. Normally, I would make this a combination wager, but at +2 line, the money line is not near high enough. However, if you do get a favorable line movement this afternoon and you can get +150 on the ML, then I suggest making a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-17 mark good for 67% winners and has made a very nice +29 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged a +160 dog too making this a formidable system to use moving forward. Play on a home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo has been a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams averaging

50* graded play on Stanford as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by at least 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (WASHINGTON ST) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Stanford is a perfect  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; WSU is a money losing  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992;  5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Teams evolve in college football and the turnover occurs every season and student athletes are on the roster for four years. However, the stats that extend back to 1992 as well as the shorter term ones bring to the light the most valid game stats and their outcomes. When a college teams scores 28 or more points, it can be a very strong indicator for the overall ATS outcome of the game. Such is the case with this matchup. I strongly believe that Stanford will easily score 28 points and could do it before half time. They are an elite offense and one that is flying under the radar. WSU defense has allowed a huge number of points and Stanford has just too much depth for the Cougars to contain for the entire game. Take Stanford. 

35* graded play on Temple as they host Notre Dame in a huge showdown for each team set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-2 mark using the money line for an incredible 94% win percentage since 1992. Play on a home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points and 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Further, we see that ND has struggled against team's with strong defensive units like Temple has this season. ND is just 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing

50* graded play on Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My rating system equates to wagers that can be placed. In other words if you wager $100 on my 25* graded plays, then wager no more than $200 on this play. If you wager a dime on the 25* plays than wager no more than a 50* play on this one. Use common sense and discipline. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In the majority of my plays, the number 28 comes up a lot and essentially acts as a pivot point of sorts. In this case, I feel very confident that Mississippi will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games since 1992, Texas A&M is just 23-78 ATS (-62.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Further, there are other 'bad news' items hitting Texas A&M. They are a money burning 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1992;  10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992;  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Now, again, the 28 points scored part comes up and is validated by the high probability that Ole Miss will score at least 28 points. They are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. This last historical reference also under scores the present fundamental matchup I see that will dominate this game in favor of Mississippi. That is that Ole Miss will control the LOS on both sides of the ball. They will get the ground game going and then use play action to stretch the defense even further with vertical and 'double-move' routes. We have also seen Ole Miss controlling the ball for less than half the game, but that is not because of fundamental flaws. Further A&M is just 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games facing ball control teams posting 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. In finally, A&M is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game since 1992. An intangible is that Ole Miss lost in humiliating fashion to vastly inferior Memphis team. They got looking ahead to this conference showdown. I am very confident Ole Miss as a team will be extremely focused on executing each play run to perfection. Ole miss ranks just 71st in passing yards allowed, BUT they rank 17th in opponent yards per pass. They are excellent in vertical route coverage and also get enough pressure on the QB without having to bring the blitz. Take Mississippi for a 50* graded play. 

35* graded play on the Vanderbilt as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vandy will win this game by at least 6 points. They are just a 1 point dog, but the betting flows are expected to be heavily on the side of Missouri as game time approaches. I would choose to wait and see if this line movement occurs and look to get +2 lines. Now, I am not saying we need the extra point to win this play, but it never hurts to give you what the market offers.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-36 mark for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 1992. The reason is that it has averaged a +280 dog play. Play on home underdogs vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 37-16 for 70% winners and has made 30 units/unit wagered averaging a +124 dog play since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (MISSOURI) after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just  10-25 against the money line (-30.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-8 against the money line (-13.8 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. Two of the best SEC defenses face off in this matchup. I give the edge to Vandy noting they rank 6th in third down conversions allowed while Missouri ranks 76th. Further, Vandy ranks ninth in the nation with a 55.7% TOP percentage. Missouri is 109th at just 45% TOP. The Vandy offense will be far more successful in third down conversions and moving the chains than Missouri and that will be a dominant theme in what will be a field position first priority for Vandy. Take Vanderbilt. 

35* graded play on San Diego State as they host Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that SDST will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these dogs of greater than 3 points into combination wagers comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-7 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005.  Play against a road team (UTAH ST) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 64% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. SDST is a strong running team and uses the run to set up the pass and play action opportunities. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 46.7 running plays per game and 10th rush play percentage at 66.2%. UTST has been able to thwart the ground attack on their opponents to date, but I clearly see SDST getting the ground game going and simply wearing down the UTST defensive front over the course of the game. Also, note that when SDST does pass they are looking to vertical routes. They rank a decent 68th averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Take San Diego State.

35* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners  since 2010. Play on any team (GEORGIA) excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR against a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just 5-29 ATS (-26.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; Georgia is a solid 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Georgia is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Georgia has a very strong offense that will be going up against a vastly improved Missouri defense. However, Missouri's offense is not good and will not be able to compete and match the offensive output of the Bulldogs. Missouri offense ranks 119th scoring just 15.2 PPG while Georgia's ranks 26th scoring 35 PPG. Georgia has had a very difficult schedule, but still ranks 35th in opponent yards allowed at 4.9, 37th allowing 361 yards per game, and 33rd in opponent rushing yards per catty at 3.6. Missouri has big struggles running the ball ranking 103rd gaining just 3.6 and will struggle even more against a defense that has already played Alabama. I think Georgia  will dominate both sides of the LOS and will score almost at will. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on the Michigan Wolverines as they host Michigan State in a major BIG TEN matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (MICHIGAN) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 52% of these plays covered the spread by 10 or more points and based on the SU record of the system the home team has a 47-4 winning record. The Michigan defense is very real and this year's edition of the MSU offense is not all that strong. The Spartans rank 58th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Wolverine defense ranks 1st in scoring defense at just 6.3 PPG and yards allowed at just 181 per game, and allowing only 2.9 yards per play. Michigan is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half in all games he has coached. His presence was expected to bring back Michigan to a Big TEN powerhouse, but it is happened far faster than anyone thought possible. After three straight shutouts, it is quite clear that the team is Harbaugh's and that the players are all on the same page. Dominant winning only makes the team family chemistry that much stronger and that much more focused. Michigan is the play. 

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 27 or more points. Baylor is the top scoring offense in the nation at 63.8 PPG, yards per game at 710, points per play at 0.83, yards per play at 9.3, and third down conversions at 61%. WVU is a decent team , but I don't believe they have the strength to match Baylor's offense for an entire game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-15 for 76% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP against a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Further, we see that WVU is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and head coach Briles is a near-perfect Briles is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of Baylor. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on Penn State as they host Indiana in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark using the first half line and good for 74% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PENN ST) in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. I do believe this play based on the SIM is valid to include a 5* play using the first half line. Indiana has a strong ground game, but PSU linebacker play has been improving steadily each week. They won't shut Indiana down, but they will do enough to force Indiana into passing downs and third and long situations. The big part of this game is that PSU will be highly productive in the ground game and will gain at least 175 yards and average between 4.5 to 5.0 yards per rush. In past games, PSU is a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. PSU quarterback Hackenburg is likely to be a NFL top-10 pick, but he has not had the time to display is elite arm. This game will give him that opportunity facing a Hoosier defense that has allowed an average of 503 yards per game. PSU defense has allowed just 284 opponent yards and only 158 opponent rushing yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosier coach Wilson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses allowing

35* graded play on Stanford as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 13 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At the college level some of the most important projections revolves around the number 28. Scoring 28 or yielding 28 often times leads to a direct correlation to an ATS cover. Arizona is just 16-44 ATS (-32.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 4-25 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards; Stanford is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards;  21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Arizona is 3-1 as is Stanford. Arizona though is coming off a very humbling defeat to Conference powerhouse UCLA. In what was lined at pick-em ended with UCLA winning 56-30. Arizona completed just 10 of 28 pass attempts for only 115 yards and three interceptions. Stanford was upset by what is a much better Northwestern team than preseason previews indicated and has since won three straight in dominating fashion. Rushing yards has increased in each game this season. The last game saw them gain 325 yards on 48 attempts and I strongly believe they will gain 250+ in this matchup. Arizona will bring defenders into the box to stop the run and this will open up play action for high percentage completions. So, the Stanford passing game will be featured a bit more than usual to take advantage of what the Arizona defense sets. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on Texas Tech in Big 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This game has also set the all-time high - at least in my database - for the highest total ever posted in Vegas at 90 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come down a touch to 88 1/2. Baylor's coaches know they have major advantages on both sides of the ball. I believe their goal will not be to get into a shoot out with this high powered Tech offense and instead use their unstoppable ground attack to wear down the much smaller Tech DL over the course of the first half. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=8.3 PYA and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is a very nice 5-1 ATS the last three seasons. Of the 34 plays made by the system, 53% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Of the wimnning plays, 65% of them covered by 7+ points. Here is a second system that ahs gone 111-57 ATS for 66% winners since 1992.  Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) excellent passing team with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 3-0 ATS this season and of all plays qualified by the criteria 48% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards I see no reason that would prevent Baylor from attaining more than 300 rushing yards and more than 550 total offensive yards. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on Georgia as they host Alabama in a huge SEC Conference showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 4 points. The public is on 76% of the tickets being written and it has pushed the line down to pick-em at the majority of books. Too much focus on the belief that Alabama just will lose their second game this early in this season. Yet, Georgia has an amazing offense that is highlighted by the media, but is still vastly underrated. More significantly, a win today would leave the Bulldogs with a much clearer path toward their first conference title in a decade, and a nearly certain spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia has only one other ranked opponent after Saturday's game: No. 25 Florida. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (GEORGIA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Last 3 seasons this system has gone 10-2 ATS and of all plays made since 2005, 52% of them covered by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-37 ATS (-28.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 102-47 ATS (+50.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. The algorithms show that Georgia will out gain Alabama in rushing and passing and will have at least a 1.0 yard per play advantage. Also, Alabama is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Last, check out this link to see the latest great IGA video. Not a reason to wager on this game, but still quite impressive and very well done. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/dawgnation/uga-releases-chilling-the-storm-hype-video-for-alabama-game. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on Temple as they take on Charlotte in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 24 or more points. Temple is coming off their BYE week and will be very well rested adn focused for this road tilt. They were heavy road favorites in their last game and needed a mircale finish to just win against UMASS. The minutemen are a pretty darn good squad though and trailed by just 1 point entering the fourth quarter to Notre Dame, before they went on a scoring spree and won going away. Temple will not be overlooking the opponent tonight that is playing in their first full season as an FBS team. They were gashed by Middle Tennessee and I believe Temple will do the same. Charlotte has a decent defense based on the flash stats, but there are several mighty big holes that Temple will be able to exploit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-29 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against any team (CHARLOTTE) poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). Further, you will see that Charlotte will struggle big in the passing game and may not even get more than 125 passing yards in this matchup. Yemple defense will dominate LOS and make it very difficult for Charlotte to score. Take Temple. 

35* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on Nebraska in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM shows a summary projection that SM will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Although the probabilities are low for an outright upset shocker, I encourage you, if available, to put down another 3* unit on the money line. Each season I have had 20+ dogs not only cover, but win outright. I never know when one of these huge dogs is going to shock the world, so it is imperative to maintain your wager discipline each week in order never to miss out on any ATS win or ML gain. SM comes into this game with 10 returning starters on offense including their QB. These teams have experience and chemistry, especially on the OL, that be a significant competitive advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that SM is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. SM played hard against Miss State and covered in Week 1. When going up against weaker opponents the offense shined scoring 52 against South Alabama and 56 at Texas State. They have covered three straight. Nebraska is coming off a heart wrenching OT defeat to Miami where they came from behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter and then only losing in OT. These types of herculian efforts that don't end up in a 'W' can create a playing 'hangover' in the next week - especially when facing a supposedly inferior foe. Take Southern Mississippi. 

35* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Toledo in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning straight up. Given this favorable upset projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for 26* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the probabilities that the upset will occur.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-9 record for 67% winners and has made an incredible 35 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +246 DOG play since 1992. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (IOWA ST) team with a horrible scoring defense last season that  allowed 35 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State. 

35* graded play on the Georgia as they host South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by more than 21 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) that was excellent rushing team from last season averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The system under scores why I am on Georgia and it is simply because of the strong ground attack. Georgia's offensive line will wear down a much smaller SC defensive front over the course of the game. I expect Georgia to have well over 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards on 70+ plays from scrimmage. They will run about twice as much as pass and I just don't anyway SC can contain this offense. SC is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 or more total yards per play; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; Georgia is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2.5 to 3 yards/play. Sc QB Conner Mitch injured his shoulder last game and is out indefinitely. He was the new starter QB this season to a unit retuning just 4 starters. Take the Bulldogs. 

25* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they host Clemson in NCAA Thursday Night action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that Louisville will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid opportunity to win the game and avoid starting the season at 0-3. Clemson is 2-0, but played Wofford and Appalachian State, which are teams hardly as strong as Louisville. Louisville lost to Auburn 31-24, but covered as 10 point dog. Last week they did not play well in a home loss to Houston installed as a 13 point favorite. They are not this bad a team and the home loss only makes me more confident that Louisville is going to come out play as a very desperate DOG. The large leep in strength of competitor for Clemson will be a problem as it is impossible to simulate the change of speed and strength from their first two opponents to that of Louisville. I like making this a combination wager as well comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money lie. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I do expect this to be a war and not looking for Louisville to catch Clemson sleeping. Although that would be nice. What is nice, is that in closely played games based on the stat lines, Louisville is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by less than 50 yards. Take Louisville. 

I will have additional releases being issued this afternoon so be sure to check back. 25* graded play on Virginia as they host Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a huge upset win. Last week the Irish defense was dominant over the Longhorns allowing 163 yards of offense and producing 11 3-and-out possessions. That may appear incredible, but that was against a Texas offense that I have ranked below 100th best in the nation. UVA returns five starters on offense, but they are going to be a much stiffer test for the Irish. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just  17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. UVA is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I really see a letdown here by the Irish  after the big game last week and is demonstrated by the fact that they are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Virginia Cavaliers. 

35* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Minnesota in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 12-1 mark fo the past five season and 24-4 ATS since 1992 good for 89% winners. 63% of the games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) excellent passing team from last season with a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a money burning  32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.

25* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Western Kentucky in Thursday Night NCAA Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New England Patriots. In summary, Big ben is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in games where the total is between 46 1/2 and 54 1/2 over the five seasons. Ok, on to the college report detail. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% win percentage) and playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match te SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LT is a solid 28-6 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; WKU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Alabama set to kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset. I would highly recommend making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 55-20 ATS (+33.0 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Here is the best one noting that Wisconsin is  9-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. It will be the massive ground attack by Wisconsin that will win this game for them and Alabama is vulnerable against big time ground attacks. They are  1-7 against the money line (-9.7 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. They also have not faired well in shootout type games. They are just 1-3 against the money line (-18.3 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The -18.3 units also reflects that they were big favorites in these games just as they are against Wisconsin tonight. Take the Badgers. 

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Arizona State set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that A&M will win this game by at least 6 points. A&M returns 16 starters with 8 each on offense and defense and have their QB returning as well. ASU has retunred 7 starters on offense and not their QB. They do return 9 defensive starters, but I just don't see this unit containing A&M for four quarters. This is being contested at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. So although a neutral site, it certainly will have a home game feel for the Aggies. ASU was a blitz heavy defense last season and I fully expect them to bring blitz at least 60% of the time tonight. They blitz an average of 56% in 2014. However, A&M QB Kyle Allen had a better TD/INT ratio when facing the blitz then he did not facing pressure. Slip screens will work very well against an aggressive defensive attack. Plus, look for the TE in play action in vertical routes. A&M is the play. 

25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Virginia in NCAA action set to start at  the as they take on the  action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.SIM shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 21 points. For the first time since 2002, UCLA will start a true freshman at QB in Josh Rosen, who is the No.1 ranked QB in the 2015 class. He has had tremendous practices and has excelled in scrimmages looking more like a veteran Senior signal caller than a kid fresh out of High School action. He will be well protected by an excellent offensive line and will have a strong ground attack led by Paul Perkins. He had 1575 rushing yards in 2014. The strong ground attack will set up play action for Rosen with his elite receivers in man coverage. He has the strength to stretch any defense and the vertical routes will be attacked against UVA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) good offensive team from last season scoring 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. It has gone 20-4 ATS over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is a solid 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992;  31-8 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992; 31-11 ATS (+18.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA.

35* graded play on the Auburn Tigers as they take on the Louisville Cardinal set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AUBURN) good offensive team from last season that scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and it has gone 20-4 over the last 5 seasons. The Auburn defense will be markedly better in 2015 having 8 returning starters from that unit. They will be going up against a Louisville offense that retunrs 5 starters including their QB. The lack of chemistry along the Louisville offensive line will allow Auburn to attack and make plays. Auburn will show blitz on nearly every play to add confusion to OL blocking assignments. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Auburn has a tremendous QB in Jeremy Johnson, who is 6-5 and 240 pounds with a pro strength arm. If you like betting Heisman long shots then this is your man. Take Auburn. 

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  Sim shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 21+ points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-10 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.  Of all the wagers, 54% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; WMU is just  7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992. WMU has had a great turn around to what was a dismal football program that went 1-11 in 2013. Coming off a winning season in 2014 will not be enough to make the step up in competition and face a strong Big Ten Conference foe. MSU is just too deep at the skill positions for WMU to be able to contain for four quarters. MSU offensive line is going to wear down the smaller sized WMU defensive front and will set up play action pass plays in man coverages. Take Michigan State. 

25* graded play on TCU as they take on Minnesota in CFB action set to start  as they take on the  action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 17 points. TCU returns 10 offensive starters including their QB and this will be a huge advantage for them in this matchup. During the first month of the CFB season, teams returning all but one starter on either side of the ball have the experience and continuity of the previous season working for them. This is most notable on offensive lines where chemistry is major quality of excellent offensive units. Of course there are the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the NCAA world that simply reload with elite talent and offset the lack of experience quickly. TCU is an elite team and based on my power ratings from the SIM, they would be 9 point dogs to Alabama on a neutral field. So, I strongly believe that Minnesota will have a very tough time just containing the TCU powerhouse. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) and is a top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 46% of these plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. Here is a second system that has gone 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a third powerhouse system that has gone 34-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2005 and has gone 14-2 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good offensive team from last season scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 44-6 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Minnesota is just 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992;  7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take TCU. 

25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on South Carolina in NCAA Football action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. The line is at -2 1/2 favoring SC. Unless the line gets to -3, there is no opportunity to do a combination wager. If it does climb to 3, then consider making a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line to exploit the upset potential of this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Extremely high probability that UNC will score more than 28 points. SC is just 20-67 ATS (-53.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; UNC is a solid 82-34 ATS (+44.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. UNC returns 10 starts and their QB on offense and this is a monumental advantage for them in this matchup. The offensive line benefits the most form the past game experience and their blocking schemes and assignments are executed at a very high level. SC has just four returning starters on offense and their learning curve will take time even with Spurrier as the teacher. Take UNC tonight. 

50* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Oregon in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 44* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Broadly speaking, the biggest difference between these two elite programs is the simple fact that Ohio State has a vastly better defense than Oregon. Both teams have played an exact SOS this season so the national rankings are a fair comparison. Oregon ranks 29th in scoring defense (23 PPG), 84th in opponent yards per game (426), 53rd in allowed yards-per-play (5.3), and 75th in third down conversion allowed (42%). Ohio State ranks 19th allowing 22.1 PPG, 11th in yards allowed (333), 11th in allowed yards per play (4.7), and 22nd in third down conversions allowed (35%). Another major factor in this matchup is coaching where Ohio State Head coach Meyer has had 11 experiences at this level while Helfrich is in his first National Championship game. The venue is at Jerry's Palace and the media will be overwhelming. At the College Football level, coaching is monumentally more important in big games, then at the NFL level. The simple fact that the Ohio State players can fully trust everything that Meyer tells his team in order to prepare them cannot be over stated. Here are coaching trends that support Ohio State. Meyer is a solid 39-13 ATS (+24.7 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached; 42-13 ATS (+27.7 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached. Looking at the injury report we see Oho State's Dontre Wilson and Jeff Heuerman as probable. Yet, on the Oregon side of the report, we see two suspensions and several other possible suspensions yet to be confirmed.  This is a clear sign of team distractions and uncertainty in a game where these conditions are magnified greatly. Ohio State QB Cardale Jones may have inexperience, but he is well supported by an excellent offensive line and numerous weapons. He has played in big games already and has posted a QBR of 159 with 7 TD and 1 INT. He is a big strong athletic QB standing 6-5 and weighing 250 pounds. He is bigger than all of the Oregon LB and arguably stronger. So, he is going to very tough to bring down when running in space or using his legs to extend plays. My conclusion is that Ohio State will wear down the smaller Oregon defense in producing long time consuming drives. Let's now take a look at the technical picture. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-32 mark using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 53 units/unit wagered since 1992.  Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has averaged a +292 DOG play. The winning percentage of 48% is irrelevant and the units won is all that truly matters with a powerful Money Line system. This is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and having essentially a 50/50 chance of winning each hand played. However, in this system, a winning hand pays of nearly 3:1 and this reflects the power of identifying DOGS that are projected to cover easily and also has a better than 55% probability of achieving the upset win. Take Ohio State. 

50* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As we did with the 50* GOY winner on NC State, a combination wager is an excellent investment with an excellent risk/reward and total rate of return profile.  So, consider making a 42* play on the line and then add an 8* play using the money line. Let's first look at the technical readings supporting FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) that that is a modest rushing team gaining between 100 to 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RY/G) after 7+ games, and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. I believe the FSU ground attack will be highly successful and will serve to generate a significant advantage in TOP. Clearly, FSU cannot get into a shootout type of game against Oregon. Further, FSU is 1-7 ATS L3 seasons and just 9-44 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent 28 or more points. So, I point that out ONLY because I am extremely confident that Oregon will not score 28 or more points. Note too, that Oregon is a money burning 4-11 against the money line (-12.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992; Additionally, FSU is a very solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992; 12-22 against the money line (-18.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Overall, Oregon is barely in the TOP-50 in defensive efficiency. They rank 52nd allowing 5.2 yards-per-play and 65th in third down conversions allowed (41%). FSU ranks 27th gaining 6.2 yards-per-play and 15th posting a 0.498 points-per-play ratio. Plus, FSU has arguably the best FG kicker in the game in Robert Aguayo, who has connected ton 25 of 27 FG attempted with an enormous leg. It may come down to him and I love FSU's chances with the game on the line for game winning FG. Take Florida State.

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Baylor in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game.  There is certainly conclusive projections from the SIM that MSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are a very strong 8-2 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS L3 seasons when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-20 mark for 73% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has gone 8-1 using the money line and made 7.2 units/unit wagered this season. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MICHIGAN ST) an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system working against Baylor and has gone 35-14 using the money line for 71.4% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BAYLOR) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Getting back to the projections and now using the money line we see that MSU is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;  28-11 against the money line (+20.6 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Take Michigan State.

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game. The return on investment (ROI) is not validated by the current lines. If the line moves to 3 1/2 and a money line above 145, then making a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. Play on any team (ARIZONA) off a loss against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I see Boise State scoring at least 28 points in this game. Arizona is just 2-4 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS L3 seasons, and 22-86 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, they are money burning 2-6 ATS L3 seasons and 12-26 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 offensive yards. Arizona HC Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games facing high-powered offensive teams scoring 37 or more points/game in all games in his coaching career;  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Boise's offense is going to exploit several weaknesses in the Arizona defense. Boise has the ground attack that will wear down the Arizona defensive front and setup excellent play action opportunities in man coverage. Arizona ranks a suspect 66th in the nation allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 120th allowing 278 passing yards per game. Boise's relentless and well balanced offense will dominate the game. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on TCU in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome at Atlanta. I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then consider adding a 5* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game. Much has been made about the so-called chip on the shoulder that TCU has after they feel they were snubbed by Ohio State from playing the 4-team playoff format. Well, my research clearly shows that after this game, they will have no gripe whatsoever. I further believe that such a chip can actually work against a team in this type of situation. Far too much attention and focus is being made of the snub and the need to blowout Mississippi to prove their self-worth, that in the end the focus and attention to the execution of each play is lost. Supporting the 'under' play is a proven system posting a 46-16 mark for 74% winners since 2008. 55% of these plays went 'under' the total by at least 7 points. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OLE MISS) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG in non-conference games. Further, my analysis and SIM projections show a very high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points and that TCU is unlikely to exceed that mark. Mississippi is 6-2 ATS this season and 19-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Further, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. There is a major difference with the SOS played by these two teams and Mississippi has enjoyed the additional time off after playing the brutal West Division of the SEC Conference. TCU has not played a defense like Mississippi that has superior speed, quickness, gap discipline, and athleticism than any other team they faced. You simply cannot simulate game speed in preparation for the Mississippi defense. Freeze is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of Mississippi; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. Take Mississippi.

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on LSU in the Music City Bowl set to start at 3:00 PM ET, December 30, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager by playing a 21.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. I like the change to Malik Zaire as it will undoubtedly lead to greater ball security and more mobility in the picket. I also think the Pistol can be un successfully as well. LSU boasts one of the best defenses in the nation in the majority of statistical measurements. However, the times they were torched it was in the vertical passing game that also served to open up the middle of the field for power running between the tackles and quick slants and 'ins' to TE. This will make an offense that ranked 29th with a 0.441 points-per-play ratio and 16th in passing yards per game significantly more efficient. LSU has struggled on offense and is the dominant reason they did not contend late into the season for a possible SEC Championship berth. They played in the very deep and talented West Division, but at the end of the day it was an offense that ranked 85th in scoring offense and 90th in total offensive production that has led them to the Music City Bowl. Notre Dame has been setting all-time records in scoring and yards allowed in their recent games. Yet, with all of this time to prepare I do see the Notre Dame defense being highly successful against a woeful LSU offense. Moreover, they will be prepared as well for the Les Miles "trickery plays''. The following game situations support my expectations for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is a very strong 10-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Notre Dame.

25* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. This game is being played at the Liberty Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for this game.  WVU is just  2-9 against the money line (-11.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 13-30 against the money line (-27.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 5-18 against the money line (-31.4 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas A&M is a solid 13-3 against the money line (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; 15-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons;  12-3 against the money line (+14.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Further, the added rest for West Virginia has not ended up being a positive factor knowing they are an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-9.4 Units) after a bye week(s) over the last three seasons. Holgorsen is 2-6 against the money line (-14.4 Units) after a bye week as the coach of WVU. In media outlets, the focus has been on the apparent weakness in the A&M defense. Yet, they are not nearly as porr a unit as they would lend you to believe. In fact, they rank 68th in the nation with a 0.376 points-per-play ratio and 30th in opponent red zone scoring. What is confirms is that A&M is a bend and don't break type of defense. They can allow a ton of yards between the 20's, but when in the red zone, the defense has consistent scheme in keeping teams from getting into the end zone. What is even more eye-pooping is that WVU ranks 70th in the nation with a 0.381 points-per-play allowed and 79th in passing yards allowed per game (294). A&M loves to throw the ball and they rank 14th averaging 298 passing yards per game. So, I strongly believe it will be the West Virginia defense that will be under immense pressure to keep A&M from scoring points on almost every drive. Take the Aggies. 

25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on USC in the Holiday Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game is being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-13 mark, BUT making 25 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 2004. The average play for this system has been a very impressive +211 DOG. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (NEBRASKA) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. I am seeing lines starting at +225 and going as high as +250 for this play. Further, I am confident that Nebraska will score 28 or more points. In past games, USC is a miserable 1-4 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the L3 seasons, and 15-61 ATS since 1992 when they have yielded 28 or more points. When Nebraska gets the offense rolling and have scored at least 28 in past games, they are 6-3 ATS this season and 112-58 ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska. 

25* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in a great matchup of major Conferences set to to place in the Independence Bowl beginning at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 6 points. Both teams have played a difficult schedule so the rankings and stat comparisons are quite valid. The biggest difference in this game will be the Miami defense that ranks 18th in yards per play allowed and 51st in points-per-play allowed. They have been very strong against the pass this season and this matches up quite well to SC offensive scheme under HC Spurrier. Canes rank 15th allowing just 6.1 yards per pass and 17th allowing 193 passing yards per game. Miami will force far more 3-and-outs and will enjoy a major advantage in TOP. The SC defense just will not be able to stand up to the constant pounding by Miami and the extended periods of time on the field. I also believe that Miami will attack the middle of the field immediately after forcing SC in a 3-and-out or short duration drive. This undoubtedly will wear the SC defense down gradually as the game progresses. I see Miami scoring at least 28 points. In the past they are 15-6 ATS L3 seasons and 92-46 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points. SC is a money burning 2-5 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the L3 seasons, and 20-67 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take the Hurricanes.

25* graded play on Duke as they take on Arizona State in the Sun Bowl taking place at Sun Bowl Stadium in ElPaso Texas and set to start Saturday at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. It has gone 3-1 ATS this season. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. Duke is a very solid 9-2 against the money line (+12.2 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-2 against the money line (+7.4 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 8-15 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 20-24 against the money line (-20.3 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1992. ASU has had a long history of struggling against strong running teams like Duke. They have posted a miserable 11-36 against the money line (-29.4 Units) en facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The strong ground attack is going to be a dominant reason Duke wins this game. The strong ground game then sets up play action where ASU has struggled in man coverage, especially in the middle of the field in underneath or bracket coverage. Duke is a very smart football team as evidenced by ranking 20th best in the nation throwing an INT on only 1.76% of plays and ranking 6th allowing a QB sack on just 3.17% of plays. Take Duke. 

50* graded play on the NC State as they take on UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET, December 26, 2014. NC State played a vastly more difficult schedule this season and I strongly believe their strong ground attack will dominate the UCF defense throughout this game.  NC State ground attack ranks 21st in the nation gaining 5.2 yards per attempt and 37th gaining 201 yards per game. Shadrach Thorton leads the team with 147 attempts, 811 rushing yards, and 9 TD. Wolf Pack QB is second with 110 attempts and 498 yards and 3 TD. Although not spectacular season stats, they have gained 362 rushing yards in a win over Wake Forest and 388 yards in their last game against state-rival UNC. This has been a dramatic shift in their offensive schemes and will be quite difficult for UCF to fully prepare for in this matchup. Further, the UNC air attack has strong enough that UCF must respect the presence of play action as well. Bo Hones leads the team with 42 receptions and 537 receiving yards. Yet, it is TE David Grinnage, who I believe will have a big day off of these play action pass situations. He is an excellent run blocker, BUT at 6-5 and 270 pounds is a huge target in open space. He has 24 grabs and 5 TD on the season. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by 10 or more points. The public has steadily bet UCF and I do see the possibility of this climbing from a current level of 2 points to possibly 3 by game time. Normally, I would suggest a combination wager with a DOG. However, unless the line climbs to 3 1/2 the combination wager does not produce enough (ROI) to be valid. So, if it does get to 3 1/2 or higher, then a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line would be valid. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) with a solid offense gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. We already know NC State had a huge game winning 35-7 over rival UNC and easily covered as a 6 1/2 point dogs. Take North Carolina State.

25* graded play Central Michigan as they take on Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at Noon Christmas Eve. I want to take this moment to wish every the best Christmas possible and best wishes for the New Year. I greatly appreciate your loyal support of my plays as it obviously has supported my family over the 18 years I have been here on Vegas Experts. The simulator shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. The public is starting to bet WKU and I believe the line will go to 3 1/2 points. This is important as at that level a combination wager produces a very good return on investment (ROI). So, if you are able to get 3 1/2 , the consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. CMU has some very strong historical trends backing them. They are a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. since 1992;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing poor rushing defenses allowing >=200 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing weaker defensive teams allowing >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. CMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Based on the matchup projections I see CMU gaining at least 5.5 yards per play. In games played where they have attained this benchmark they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I also believe that CMU will score 28 or more points. They are a quite strong 12-5 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. Take Central Michigan.

25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium  set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome I see in this matchup. Marshall is 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 300 or more rushing yards; 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for more than 6.0 yards per attempt; 13-4 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when they outgained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play. Northern Illinois is just 2-9 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 28 or more points. On the injury front, the news that Marshall RB Devon Johnson has been upgraded to probable is a significant plus for them. SOS is nearly equal with NIU having only a modest tougher schedule. So, the statistical rankings are comparable and show Marshall to be a vastly superior team. Marshall ranks 5th in scoring offense while NIU ranks 47th and more than 14 points less per game. The Marshall defense ranks 24th allowing 22 PPG while NIU defense ranks 46th allowing 25.3 PPG. NIU runs the ball 63% of the time, which is the 16th highest in the nation. They rank 16th in rushing yards, 13th in rushes per game (47), 24th in yards per rush (5.1). Although NIU doesn't pass that often, when they do they connect on a 60% completion percentage. This combo of run/pass is what has made NIU a very tough to beat in their conference. However, Marshall has elite coverage CB and LB, who also maintain excellent gap discipline. This combo will most assuredly disrupt NIU offense and their ability to move the chains and produce drives ending in scores. This game will not be about how many sacks or interceptions Marshall produces, but rather how many times they force NIU into third and long situations. Take Marshall.

25* graded play on the Nevada Wolf Pack as they take on Ul-Lafayette in the first scheduled bowl game of the 2014-2015 post season set to start at 11:00 AM. The simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game by four or more points. The following game situations match my projections for the outcomes within this game. Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play; 12-2 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards. Further, Nevada is the third best team in the nation in red zone scoring at 94%. ULL runs the ball far more than they pass it. Their ground attack ranks 25th gaining 228 rushing yards per game. Nevada's defensive personnel are much better than advertised at run stop and many of the players have positive grades over several of the recent games. Last, Nevada played a monumentally more difficult schedule this season. When adjusting for the SOS, Nevada is significantly better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage is on offense with their passing attack, especially in play action. Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo has quietly been one of the most dynamic players in college football over the past couple of seasons. He has a 123 QBR and has completed 60% of his passes for 2370 yards and 18 TD. He has spread the ball around significantly led by Jerico Richardson (53, 626), Hasaan Henderson (45, 579), Richy Turner (57, 537), and TE Jared Gipson (32, 282). LLU cannot double team any one of these receivers as Fajardo will check off the double team and find the best target. Take Nevada. 

50* graded play on Boise State as they take on Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game set to start at 10:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by 27 or more points. It is rare that I get down on a double digit favorite, but when I do it is valid across the board. This game is major mismatch. Under the new College Football Playoff system, the highest-ranked conference champion from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American, American Athletic and Conference USA plays in the either Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl on Jan. 1. So, knowing the outcome a win produces for this team is a huge motivator. I strongly believe that the coaching staff is using this tool to refocus their players on the opponent. That is ironic, but in many thing sin life, knowing the reward ahead of completing the task can be a huge and powerful force. Fresno is improved since the beginning of the season and have earned their way to this game. However, they simply do not have the defensive presence nor depth in personnel to contain a strong Boise offense for four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 36-11 ATS and 77% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 50% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has produced a 35-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) that is an elite offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game and after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. It's a statistical variation of the first system, but still reinforces my belief that Boise will cover easily. Given the matchups, it is a near certainty that Boise will score 28 or more points. In past games, FSU is 1-5 ATS this seasons when allowing 28+ points. Further, they are 0-4 ATS this season and 8-28 ATS since 1996 when they have been outgained by 2.0 yards per play. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game starting at 8:17 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 9 or more points. If the third string QB situation isn't bad enough for OSU, they still have defend one of the best ground attacks in the nation. Melvin Gordon is having a Heismann year gaining 2260 yards and averaging 8.0 YPC and 26 TD. He also has three receiving scores on 17 catches. Corey Clement  has 830 rushing yards and 6.5 YPC with 10 receptions and a 1 TD. I see the OSU defensive front steadily getting worn down over the course of the game. This style of play will also allow Wisconsin to control the tempo of the game and gain a sizable advantage in TOP. Wisconsin is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) facing strong offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons. OSU under the leadership of Myer is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 6.0+ rushing yards per carry; 18-4 ATS L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. Take Wisconsin. 

25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 8 or more points. Seriously folks. Whether you are a fan or hater of the FSU football program, no one can argue the injustice served by the playoff committee in having TCU jump over them in the rankings. How can a well educated panel put a team that has 28 straight wins and a superior SOS to a 1-loss TCU squad. So, this has to be the BEST bulletin board material possible for the FSU team and I fully expect them to come and finally play 4 strong quarters and destroy Georgia Tech. I see FSU scoring a minimum of 28 points. In past games, G-Tech is a money burning 2-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons when allowing 28+ or more points. Moreover, they are 0-4 ATS L3 seasons and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when allowing 25 to 41 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 mark for 92% winners using the money line 1992. Play on neutral field favorites using the money line (FLORIDA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. I am seeing -180 on the money line ands if you are a money line player, I see no reason not to take the plunge. I would suggest making a risk play though where you wager $2500 to win $1400 if you prefer the money line strategy. I am making this play using the line. We all know G-tech has a very strong ground attack, but they have not played against a defense with the speed, quickness, and athleticism of FSU. Defending the read-option and triple option ground attacks requires gap discipline and solid angles in pursuit. Both I see FSU possessing and being able to execute well. Further, I also believe that FSU will be able to get Tech into much longer third down situations, which allows FSU to give Tech different and varying looks pre snap. Tech ranks best in the nation converting third downs and is in large part because they get into a majority of third-and-short situations. FSU will not allow that to happen. Tech is very vulnerable to the FSU passing attack and this is the area where I feel FSU could get out to an rare two or three score lead in the first half. Take Florida State. 

25* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 points. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball. Truly, the only factor standing in the way of a Sooner cover is by them making mistakes that would provide State with a short field.  Sooner offense ranks 11th in the nation in scoring offense, 16th in yards-per-game, 10th in points-per-play, 9th in yards-per-play, 8th in rushing yards per game, and best allowing a sack on just 1.78% of the plays run. Cowboy defense ranks a terrible 93th in scoring defense, 93rd in yards allowed, 83rd in yards-per-play, 50th in rushing yards allowed, and 124th in passing yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, I see a Sooner defense that will dominate the Cowboy offense. Cowboys have struggled all season and rank just 84th in scoring offense, 103 in yards-per-game, 102nd in yards-per-play, 103rd in rushing yards, and 62nd in passing yards. Sooner defense ranks a solid 33rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards-per-play, 9th in rushing yards allowed. Sooners can easily force Cowboys to try and move the chains through the air and I expect Sooner defense to make plays and produce several turnovers. I certainly see the Sooner offense scoring 28 or more points. Note that Cowboys are just 5-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28+ points and are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 35 to 42 points. I also believe that Sooner ground attack will gain around 300 yards. In past games, Cowboys are 5-16 ATS since 1992 when allowing >6.0 yards per rush. Sooners are 8-1 ATS L3 seasons and 23-7 ATS since 1992 when gaining >6.0 yards per rush; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when gaining >6.5 yards-per-play L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (OKLAHOMA) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take the Oklahoma Sooners.

25* graded play on UCF as they take on ECU in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN/Watch ESPN media outlets.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Clearly a matchup of ECU offensive strength against UCF defensive strength. I strongly believe that the UCF defense will win the battle at the LOS. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. UCF is on a very nice run posting a perfect 9-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons. ECU is a money burning  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Take UCF. 

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on Kansas State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This game is a near match to the 25* shocker I had on Kansas when they nearly took out TCU. They led that game 27-17 entering the 4th quarter. I am not suggesting at all that you will see the same sort of game, but I do strongly believe Kansas can match up with them and compete for the entire game. Now, you may point out that Kansas was destroyed last week by Oklahoma in a 44-7 route. However, Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 19912. This system has posted a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons. Play on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's squad. Kansas has been steadily improving on offense and I believe they can compete against a K-State team that just might more focused on next week's potential showdown with Baylor. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Penn State University as they host Michigan State in Happy Valley in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will keep this game to fewer than 10 points. If you believe in the upset adding a 3* play using the money line makes perfect sense. The PSU defense is the most under rated group of defenders not only in the Big Ten, but the nation. They rank best allowing just 267 yards per game, third in scoring defense, 6th in points per play allowed, best allowing just 3.9 yards per play, send allowing just 27% third down conversions, and 5th allowing just 5.7 yards per pass. Certainly they will be severely tested by a strong MSU offensive attack, but I firmly believe PSU will win the 'war'. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 48% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Penn State. 

25* graded play on the Mississippi as they take on Mississippi State in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 25-7 mark using the Money Line and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a solid +121 DOG play and is a perfect 2-0 this season.  Play on a road team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Based on the summary of projections, I am confident Rebels will score at least 28 points. In past games, Rebels are a solid 5-2 ATS this season, 18-5 ATS the L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. I also see them having a monster day on offense and will gain 400 to 450 total yards. This has been a rare occurrence for the team, but when they do achieve this elite level of offensive production, they are a  6-1 ATS L3 seasons. In the current season they are 4-1 ATS. I simply do not see this team as one that is out of gas, especially playing this heated rival and a chance to knock them out of the playoff. Take the Rebels. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-28 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. This system is an impressive 21-7 ATS this season and 54-15 ATS over the past three seasons. 45% of all of these plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% winners since 2008. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, after the first month of the season. Arkansas is playing well and certainly will be a contender next season. They continue to build toward that future. They are also a resounding 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season. I always go back to by 25* winner with Arkansas when they went on the road and nearly took then no-1 Miss State into Overtime. They had not won an SEC game in nearly two seasons, but were only installed as 11 point road favorites in that game. This simply reflects how deep the SEC is right now and how incredibly tough the SEC West Division has been this season. Arkansas' running game is quite good and Missouri has had immense trouble against these type of squads. In fact, since Pinkel became HC , his Tigers are a money burning  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games facing solid rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game. Take Arkansas. 

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Western Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 11:00 AM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* wager on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Three teams are tied atop the MAC West Division at 6-1: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Toledo. All three take the field Friday and obviously one of these teams will be eliminated from that race. NIU simply has to win this game and they claim the West Title and will play East winner Bowling Green. Toledo is the third team in the mix and they need loss by NIU and a win over EMU, who has just one conference win. WMU needs to win and then hope for the highly improbable upset by EMU over Toledo. So, I believe the reality of the situation is that the NI players simply know that no matter what happens in their game, Toledo is just not going to lose to EMU. So, you have one team that knows if they win they are in and the other knowing the chances for a Conference Championship game are very slim. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-45 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites om conference matchups (W MICHIGAN) in a game involving two mistake-free teams committing

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Normally, I would consider a combination wager consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line, but the risk/reward profile just does not validate the added risk. So, simply stick with a 25* play using the line. What I do like, though is adding a 10* play using the 'over' for this contest. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (TCU) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. During this win streak ATS, one of the winners was the 25* play on +28 1/2 point dog Kansas, who led 27-17 in the fourth quarter against TCU. Kansas ended up losing 34-30 but easily covered the huge number. Both teams played 12 days ago and will be a full strength and this helps Texas far more than it does TCU. Since losing 23-0 at K-State October 25, Texas has ripped off three impressive wins and covers where both the offense and defense played at elite levels. Most notable was the marked improvement in the ground attack and the run defense. These are the two ingredients necessary for a dog to pull off a big time upset of a ranked opponent. TCU ranks second in scoring offense and 7th in passing yards. Texas defense is 4th best against the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Take the Longhorns.

50* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on USC Trojans in a huge PAC-12 Conference game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-11 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match my expectations for what will occur in the game. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this season, 7-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450 to 500 offensive yards. I also see UCLA scoring at least 28 points. USC is a miserable 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-60 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, head coach Jim More, JR. has a great history of preparing his team when facing an elite foe. He has posted a 9-2 ATS when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. Two of the best QB's in the nation square off in this game with UCLA's Hundley and USC's Kessler. I give the advantage though to Hundley with his duel threat and experience under center. A matchup worth watching in this game is how I see UCLA being able to neutralize USC's best defensive player in DE Williams. UCLA has a great running back in Paul Perkins, who ranks second in the PAC-12 gaining 117 yards-per-game. The UCLA team ranks second in the conference and 27th in the nation gaining 217 rushing yards per game. Hundley is first in the nation in completion percentage and given the solidi ground attack will enjoy plenty of time int he pocket in play action. His ability to extend the play further is also a huge advantage for his receivers to create separation and make big plays downfield. USC will get their points as well, but I just do not see them being able to keep pace with the UCLA offense. Take the Bruins. 

15* graded play on Tulane as they take on East Carolina in American Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. ECU had some impressive wins early int eh season, but that has been more than offset with two consecutive losses that have taken them out of any contention for the Conference Title.  Tulane has struggled on offense this season, but they have a strong secondary that i see matching up well against the ECU passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing yards in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 25-2 ATS mark for 93% winners since 2003 and has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ECU) that are off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG after 7+ games. Take Tulane plus the points.  

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Although this is a home game, it is one where MSU could very easily fall flat and not take Rutgers seriously. They lost to Ohio State two weeks ago ending any chance at a National Championship or entry into the playoff format. They held it together last week against Maryland, but now two weeks past the big upset loss and playing what appears to be a vastly inferior foe, they are ripe for Rutgers to give them a test. Rutgers is bowl eligible in their first season in the Big Ten, but a big effort here - even in a loss - would make them an attractive team for many of the pre-New Years bowls. Rutgers has a sneaky-good passing attack that ranks 19th in the nation gaining 8.3 passing yards per attempt. Their offense is designed to run first and average 57% run plays. In play action, Rutgers has been outstanding and this is a real weakness in the MSU secondary. Ohio State repeatedly used play action and little bubble screens to generate big plays after the catch and keep the chains moving downfield. I certainly don't expect Rutgers to execute to that degree of success, but will be far more successful than most observers believe possible. I expect them to gain between 8.0 and 8.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, MSU is just 3-16 ATS when they have allowed 8.0 to 8.5 net passing yards in games played since 1992.  Take Rutgers.

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-12 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) in a conference matchup that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match my projections for the game. Oklahoma is a resounding 3-1 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 63-16 ATS since 1992 when they have out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play; 4-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 51-21 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more yards per play. Sooners roll big.

15* graded play on San jose State as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET and will be seen on ESPN2/WatchESPN.  The simulator shows a high probability that San Jose State will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Here are a few historical precedents that support this play. SJS is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Utah State has lost three quarterbacks in the month of October. Feshman Kent Myers has done a tremendous job coming in off the bench and has won three straight games. He has thrown for 531 yards on a remarkable 43-of-57 passing and a 173 QB rating. however, he has been sacked 8 times and you can bet SJS will be bring pressure from a wide array of angles. There is enough game film now that SJS can fully prepare for him. Moreover, his average throw has not been all that vertical. If you factor out the lone 70 yard completion his passes have been short. This also reflects that Utah State has done well after the catch and gained most of the passing yards after the catch. I fully expect SJS to tackle well and play a very disciplined scheme tonight that will make if difficult for Utah State to keep the chains moving. Take San jose State.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Arizona State in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and have a great shot at a shocking upset win over no.7 ranked ASU. The media reports have outlined the path for the Sun Devils to gain a berth in the NCAA playoff Championship format. However, this path focuses not on the present,but rather the last game of the regular season against Arizona and then with a win the PAC-12 Championship game against No.3 Oregon. After five straight wins with four over ranked opponents it will be very difficult for ASU to not look ahead over a 4-5 Oregon State team. Oregon State has a wide open offense that ranks 18th in completion percentage and 30th in passing yards per game. ASU has been exploited in the back end of the defense in nearly every game and I fully expect this will be the case tonight. ASU ranks 89th in passing yards allowed and 86th getting an interception on just 2.2% of all opponent passing plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 77% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (OREGON ST) that are off two straight losses to conference rivals allowing 31 or more points in those two losses and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Further, I expect the OSU passing game to average between 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards and to score at least 28 points. Good news in previous games. OSU is a solid 3-0 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards in games played over the  last three seasons and 13-6 ATS when scoring 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. OSU Senior QB, Sean Mannion holds the PAC-12 Conference passing record and has a very strong 142 QB rating in home games this season. Last week he completed 31-of-41 passes for 419 yards and earned an amazing 170 QB rating. I don't see ASU being able to contain Mannion and the passing attack. Take Oregon State. 

25* graded play on Maryland as they host Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Maryland will cover the current 12 point spread rather easily. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (Michigan State) that are elite offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after coming a poor defensive performance allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays made based on the system criteria covered by more than 7 points. Spartans coming off a very emotional loss to Ohio State that eliminated their playoff hopes and also a Big Ten Championship. I fully expect the letdown factor to be quite strong and evident. Maryland is coming a near opposite type of win going on the road to Penn State and winning 20-19. Maryland defense was quite strong allowing just 42 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 177 yards passing yards. They also forced 4 turnovers. Take Maryland. 

15* graded play on Arkansas as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game and end their losing ways in SEC Conference action. I had played on Arkansas in their easy cover and near-miss at Mississippi State a few weeks ago. It simply demonstrates the immense depth and level of play inherent int he SEC. Arkansas, who has not won a Conference game in nearly two full seasons was installed as just an 11 point dog to the best team in the nation. Now they catch LSU off of two very emotional and physically pounding games. The last one an OT loss to Alabama in Death Valley. Losing in OT is one of the most difficult experiences coaching staffs have to overcome to get their college players prepared for the next game. I don't see that happening and I definitely see Arkansas winning. Since Miles has been the HC at LSU he is just 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after a 2 game home stand; 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on Alabama as they host Mississippi State in a huge SEc Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Tide will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA)  that are off one or more consecutive 'unders' and in a game involving two very good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more PPG  and after seven or more games have been played in the regular season. 50% of all these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. State is just 4-9 ATS the past three seasons and 26-78 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 8-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 42 points in a game; 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 or more yards per play. Alabama is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and 33-11 ATS since 1992 when they scored 35 to 42 points. On the fundamental side, the execution has been far superior in home games than road games for the Tide. This is simply because of fan noise disrupting the sideline audibles and read communications from OC Kiffin. This will not be the case playing at home where the students know they need to be quiet while their offense is on the field. You can bet though when State has the ball, the fans will be in an absolute frenzy. Alabama in a blowout win. 

15* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in a BIG-12 Conference matchup. This is simply far too many points and reflects the public's enthusiasm in playing the hot team. The TCU bandwagon has now grown to extreme levels where failure to cover situations run high. The line is currently at 28 1/2 and I see TCU willing his game by 21 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (TCU) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG) and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. This fact serves to reinforce by projection that Kansas will keep this a 21 point or less type of game. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Duke in a massive ACC showdown set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that V-tech can upset Duke and gain a valuable win that will certainly help their bowl game selection. The betting flows are certainly supportive despite the line moving from 6 to 4 1/2 points. The reason is that there has been a very high level of public bets being made on Duke. In fact, more than 76% of these wagers have been on Duke. Normally, we see the line go in the same direction as the irrational exuberance public betting. However, the big player (sharps) are placing large wagers on the Hokies that more than offsets the small public bets and has caused the line to move modestly lower. With the decline, the public will level of interest will grow with the believe that the line still offers a great bargain. Remember, that all of the research, game matchup analyses, wagering flows, and technical trends and systems serve ONLY to reinforce and to bring a form of logic to making this educated play. I have a system from the database that features an important game situation and the criteria that is set up for this play. Play on a road team using the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) in a conference matchup that is a solid good passing team gaining between 230 and 275 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 175 and 230 passing yards per game AND after more than seven regular season games have been completed. What is most impressive with this money line system is that it was made 62 units/unit wagered averaging a +145 DOG play since 2008. V-tech will be successful running the ball and I expect them to get 150 rushing yards. V-Tech has been a great money earner going 12-4 against the money line in road games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. So, the combination of a solid ground attack will open up play action for vertical routes that will be in man or bracket coverages. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on California in Pac-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS for 86% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7+ games, and after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games. 68% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Cal is a horrid defensive team while USC sports one of the best defensive units in the nation. Cal ranks 125th in scoring defense allowing 43 PPG, 128th allowing 554 yards per game, 111th with a 0.492 points -per-play ratio, and 128th allowing 401 passing yards per game. The USC defense ranks 24th in scoring defense, 18th with a 0.286 points-per-play ratio, and 16th allowing just 33% of opponent third down conversions. Cal has a strong offense, but only marginally better than the USC unit. The vast difference is between the defenses. Further, CAL has not faced a defensive unit as fast, quick, and athletic as USC has become this season. CAL is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons. USC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game since 1992. Take Southern California.

15* graded play on Kent State as they take on Bowling Green in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play on the first-half line that I will review later in the report. The simulator shows a high probability that KS will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Given the public betting flows that are reaching irrational exuberance levels on BG I expect this line to climb higher possibly getting to 14 1/2. So, wait and see what happens. I don't expect significant sharp action to take place on a MAC game, but it will not come till late this afternoon if at all. It's not that I expect we will need the extra points, but it never hurts to shop the line and get the best available, especially when there is confidence the line will move in our favor. It is rare that I ever suggest a first half play, but I strongly believe there is an added opportunity tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points using the first half line (KENT ST) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 28 and 34 PPG. Kent State may be the doormat in the MAC this season, but they are continuing to play hard and compete for the full game. Their passing defense has improved while BG's offensive pass attack has all but disappeared. BG was lighting up the scoreboard with a strong passing attack, but over the last three weeks it has dropped off a cliff. They gained 260 yards on 20-for-39 passing at Ohio University three weeks ago. Gained just 139 yards on 20-for-33 passing in a loss at home to Western Michigan. Just last week gained only 170 passing yards on 17-for-34 passing in a 27-10 win at Akron.  I expect the KS secondary to play well and make it difficult for BG to move the chains tonight. Take Kent State. 

25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of ML/Line serves to maximize the total rate of return of the game expectations and probabilities. This marks only the third time under HC Meyer that OSU is installed as a dog and the first time since November 7, 2012. They were installed as 2 point dogs at Wisconsin and won 21-14 in OT and won at Michigan State 17-16 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. MSU is excellent on both sides of the ball. Spartans are averaging the fifth-most points (45.5) and the ninth-most yards per game (515.2) in the FBS. However, OSU brings a secondary that can eliminate the Spartans vertical routes. OSU has allowed the fewest plays (17) of 20 yards or more in the nation this season.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-39 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (OHIO ST) after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and with a winning record on the season. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my belief that OSU will win this game. Again, Meyer has been a great coach, especially when installed as a DOG. He is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. I believe the OSU defense is a better defense than the Spartans and one that MSU has not faced in terms of speed, athleticism, and gap discipline this season. From the start of the game, look for OSU defensive front to get penetration and push the MSU offensive line off of the LOS. The OSU defensive front is excellent at securing blockers and not allowing them to get to the second level allowing LB to fill gaps and make stops for minimal gains. Also, if OSU gets penetration with only the down lineman and does not need to bring blitz pressure, it all but eliminates play action and the vertical MSU passing attack. Take Ohio State. 

25* graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in 'Death Valley' at night starting at 8:00 PM ET. I mention this fact only to illustrate the reason why Alabama is favored on the road in this difficult venue - arguably the toughest in football. I also believe that LSU has had their share of some emotional wins and last week's late 4th quarter win over Mississippi is certainly one of them that enters into LSU folklore. No doubt this is the best opponent that LSU will face yet this season and one that is better on both sides of the ball.  The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 10 or more points. LSU ranks 17th in the nation with a 0.273 points-per-play ratio. But, Alabama ranks 2nd with a 0.216 points-per-play ratio. On offense Alabama ranks 20th with a 0.492 points-per-play ratio while LSU is 37th posting a 0.419 ratio. Lsu ranks 68th gaining 393 offensive yards per game while Alabama ranks 10th gaining 505 offensive yards per game. The most important stat is third down conversion where LSU ranks 99th converting 35.2% of those situations and Alabama ranking 2nd converting 55%. I see the Alabama defense putting LSU in difficult third down situations and more that happens, the greater the margin that Alabama will win by. I know the history of night games and how frenzied the stadium fans will be for this contest, but Alabama just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball for LSU to overcome. Even the fourth down magic and trick plays from HC Miles will not be enough. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-10 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) off two straight wins against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Alabama is expected to score at least 28 points. LSU is a miserable 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 11-53 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Alabama. 

15* graded play on Texas as they host West Virginia in a Big-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at getting a much needed home win. Unless the line moves to 3.5 points, I don't see any reason to place a combination wager using the money line and line for this DOG. The risk/reward and DOG ML just don't provide enough return on investment to be valid. The following game situations match the projections for the game. WVU is just  1-6 against the money line (-7.3 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 13-21 against the money line (-15.3 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas is a solid  26-11 against the money line (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992;  6-2 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 27-9 against the money line (+16.6 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers since 1992. Take Texas.

25 * graded play on Syracuse as they take on Duke in a ACC Conference action set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* amount using the money line. This combination or ratio of Ml and Line amounts maximizes the total rate of return of this opportunity based on the game projections. Duke is on a 3-game winning streak, but were outgained in each of those wins by a minimum of 100 yards. Duke has risen to No. 22 in the national polls thanks in large part to their great focused attention to detail. They don't make mistakes either by penalty, turnovers, or allowing sacks. However, teams like Duke can't always rely on mistake-free football to win games continuously. The matchup I really like is the Syracuse defense against the Duke ground attack. Duke ranks 13th gaining 5.7 YPR and 38th at 203 YPG. Syracuse defense ranks 16th allowing just 3.3 YPR and 23rd allowing 123 yards per game. Stopping the ground attack and forcing Duke into more passing downs is a great game plan to defeat them. Duke has no deep vertical threat as evidenced by their 5.5 yards-per-pass that ranks 122nd in the nation. Syracuse will put complete pressure at the LOS and use mostly cover-1 on early downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (DUKE) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by six or less points. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I also see Syracuse scoring 28 or more points. In past games where they have scored 28+ points they are 12-2 ATS over the L3 seasons; 2-0 ATS this season, and 90-23 since 1996. Duke is a money burning 5-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28 or more points. Take Syracuse. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 10 or more points. Baylor has the most touchdown drives of 1 minute or less (17) and is tied for most touchdown drives of 2 minutes or less (28) this season. The Bears have more 2-minute touchdown drives than 51 FBS teams have total touchdown drives. Here again, is the superior coaching and prepartion they provide in big conference showdowns. Bob Stoops is 16-3 at home against ranked opponents in his career. Among coaches with at least 10 such games, no active coach has a better winning percentage than Stoops. Stoops is a solid Stoops is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (OKLAHOMA) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP) and after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Take the Sooners.

15* graded play on Georgia as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 14 or more points. They had a horrid game last week in their loss to Florida and I fully expect them to bounce back with a great effort today. They are still in the hunt to with the East Division and make it to the SEC Championship game and they need impressive efforts to impress the playoff committee to rise back in the rankings. Georgia is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-20 ATS mark for 64% winners since 2008. Play on any team (GEORGIA) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Take Georgia. 

15* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at securing a big home win. Given this favorable situation, I suggest making a combination wager comprised of a 12* play using the line and a 3* amount using the money line. I believe you will be able to secure a +250 money line figure for this opportunity. Never hurts to work the order and get the best possible money line. I do see a modest chance that the line could shift to 8, which in turn would make the money line closer to the +260 level. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-5 mark for 86% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team using the money line (WYOMING) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and with eight defensive starters returning. Granted, there are injuries to these defensive units in any given season. Yet, when a team starts with this many returning starters they are able to recover more quickly when an injury does occur. Wyoming is also a solid 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Wyoming team also knows that this is essentially a bowl game meaning if they win this game, they then have a weak New Mexico team on the road in the season finale, that would make them 6 win bowl eligible. They also face the 6-e Boise State Broncos next week at home and is also a game they will be home dogs, but a game that do have the potential to win as well. Path is much easier with a win tonight. Take Wyoming. 

50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 10 or more points. The Bruins (6-2, 3-2) haven't lost three in a row at home since going 0-5 at the Coliseum in 1971. They moved their home games to Pasadena permanently in 1982. They are in fifth place, but one game out of first and can leapfrog one of the teams they are chasing in Arizona with a win tonight. UCLA dropped five straight in this series before Hundley joined the program two years ago. He has thrown for 515 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions with a 77.4 completion percentage in two consecutive wins over the Wildcats. He is also leading all FBS QB with a 76.8% completion percentage on first downs. Further, he gets a ton of time in the pocket due the strong ground attack that ranks a PAC-12 high 4.5 yards per rush between the tackles. They can also spread the field and open up the middle for both the ground attack and play action with high percentage opportunities over the middle of the field. Then you add the fact that Hundley is the PAC-12 leading rushing QB with 415 rushing yards and you can readily see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for Arizona to keep them contained. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference tilts (ARIZONA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG. 55% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections I have for this game. UCLA is a solid 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 6.5 or more yards per play. Arizona is just 4-14 ATS when allowing 28 or more points L3 seasons and 0-4 ATS when allowing 450 to 500 total offensive yards L3 seasons. Take Arizona. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Given this huge five-pack of 15* Titans, I am providing just a brief for each game highlighting the ket technicals and game situations for each play.  The simulator shows a high probability that Ok State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1992. 53% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points.  Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points. Take the Cowboys from Oklahoma State. 

15* graded play on the Navy as they take on Notre Dame in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Notre Dame last played two weeks ago in their very emotonal loss to FSU in a game they dominated in the first half and then let get away from them in the second half. The way the game ended as well is an 'event' that is very close to the emotional overtime loss that College teams endure. Further, Navy runs a very complex ground attack and I have to admit, I don't see Notre Dame being fully prepared for this game. In their history they have essentially never done well against strong ground attacks. In fact, they are just 5-24 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed an opponent 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game. Take the Navy Midshipmen

15* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Oregon Ducks in PAC-12 conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 7 points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 ATS mark for an incredible 92.3% winners since 2008. Play on any team (STANFORD) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR; after 7+ games and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 73% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Stanford can win this game. I like using a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line on Stanford. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on NO.1-ranked Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:15 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN2/Watch ESPN.  I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 28* units. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. It is hard to actually see Arkansas winning this game, but many of you know that about once a year I have had a 17+ DOG win outright. I always remember when Tebow lost to Mississippi 31-30  at home in the Swamp and were installed as 24 point dogs September 27, 2008. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a losing record of 27-51 for just 35% winners, BUT has made a whopping 77 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a remarkable +475 DOG play. I am seeing +350 right now for the Razorbacks. Play on road underdogs of +315 or higher using the money line (ARKANSAS) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  Here is a second system that has gone 107-35 for 75% winners since 2003 and averaged a +105 DOG play. Although the average line of this system does not equal the line for this specific game, there have been a significant number of games wagered that were in the +300 and higher levels. Play against a home team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Arkansas is expected to average 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Not good news for State as they are a horrid 2-10 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I relied on the example of one of my biggest upsets I have ever enjoyed, but it also points to how incredibly DEEP the SEC Conference is this season. Arkansas has not won a conference game in quite a long time and are 4-4 on the season with all four losses occurring against SEC foes. They now take to the road to face not only an SEC team, but the NO. 1 ranked team in the nation and yet are installed as barely double digit dogs. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on Georgia in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Gators will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Georgia is off a hard fought 45-32 win at Arkansas. However, I don't expect much positive momentum coming from that game as HC Richt is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of Georgia. Further, Georgia is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) off a double digit road win since 1992. Florida has been a money making 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Take the Gators.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Georgia Tech on an ACC Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong view that UVA wins this game. I strongly believe that UVA will score at least 28 points and are 3-0 ATS this season when achieving that level and 7-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Georgia Tech is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Take Virginia.

25* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in American Athletic Conference action set to start at Noon ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2008 and is 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Play against road favorites (E CAROLINA) that are excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. What I like most in this game is Temple has a vastly under rated passing defense. Overall, they rank 33rd allowing 22.8 PPG and 24th in a far more meaningful points-per-play stat of 0.290. ECU is off a 31-21 home win over cellar dweller UCONN and failed to cover as 28 points favorites. In fact, they were tied in the early part of the 4th at 21 points. They had just 1 turnover and are a money burning 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Temple has been nailed by the turnover bug and as their HC coach said in press statements,'just have not played their brand of football'. He also challenged his team this week stating that this is the last top-25 ranked team they will play and that this is a pivotal time'. I have a high level of confidence that Temple will look to win this game and not just show up and attempt to compete with the ranked Pirates. Further, their QB P.J. Walker, who has tossed five picks in the last two games, has learned the hard way that there are times to just simply throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Nearly all of his INT have been a result of trying to create big plays. So, this is a great spot for a team coming off two poor efforts, to come out highly motivated to upset a ranked foe on their home turf. Take Temple.