|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-12-23||Chiefs v. Eagles -1||Top||38-35||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
10-Unit 5% Max Best bet on the Eagles
From my Predictive Models, 85% probability that Eagles score 28 and have same or fewer turnovers. Teamsin Super Bowls are 10-3 SUATS | 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS for Eagles last three seasons. Chiefs are 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS 27% when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers last three seasons.
Last, I recommend an OVER bet if the first quarter ends up showing fewer than 10 points scored and will recommend an 8-unit bet if the quarter ends 0-0 or 3-0. There have been five Super Bowls in which the first quarter ended 0-0. The Over In-Game line is 5-0 and the pre flop Over is 4-1, which implies betting OVER 2nd quarter, and full-game OVER in-game line.
This a rather comprehensive list of situational trends and angles that support the bet on the Eagles
Teams that scored 30 or more points in their two previous playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl are 7-1 SUATS inn the Super Bowl
The League MVP is just 6-15 SU and 5-15-1 ATS and 0-7 ATS last 20 Super Bowls | The last League-MVP to win a Super Bowl was Curt Warner and “The Best Show on Turf” LA Rams in 1999 | Since then, League-MVP’s are 0-9 SU and ATS | Works against Mahomes and the Chiefs
Teams lined between 2.5-point-favorites and 2.5-point dogs that had the better defensive yards per point allowed for the season went on to a 5-0 SU and ATS record and 3-2 Over-Under – Favors Eagles
Teams that scored in every quarter of their conference championship win have seen the Under go 13-7 (65%) in the Super Bowl| Chiefs and Eagles have scored in every quarter.
Teams that scored in every quarter of their previous two playoff games has seen that team go just 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 over-Under | Favors Eagles
The team that averaged more points scored in the third quarter are 4-8 SU (33%), 3-9 ATS (25%) and 5-7 O-U |If the total is 50 or more, the higher scoring third quarter team is 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 O-U | Favors Eagles
Team is the favorite and has won three of their last four games and facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has produced a 37-14 ATS record since 2010; 33-12 SU and 30-13-2 ATS 70% since 2013; 66-34-3 ATS, 73-30 SU (71%) since 1989 From Week 12 on and includes the playoffs
The team with the lower offensive yards-per-play average is 16-5 SU, 14-7 ATS, and 9-12 O-U | Eagles
LIVE in-game Super Bowl Betting
Dogs that scored first went on to a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS record with a 5-5 Over-Under
Dogs that scored a touchdown first went on to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record and 3-4 O-U
Teams that had more rushing attempts in the SB have gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and 9-12 O-U |
Teams that had more rushing attempts and with the total at 50 or more points has gone 6-1 SUATS and 1-6 O-U 86% under bets.
Teams that had more rushing attempts and passes are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS (77%) and 5-8 O-U
Teams that had fewer passes went onto a 14-7 SYATS record and 9-12 O-U 43%
Teams that had fewer passes, but more rushes went on a 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS. 5-8 Over-Under
Teams that had scored 17 or more points by half time and ended the game with the same or fewer turnovers went on to a 7-SUATS record and 7-1 O-U
Favorites that exceeded their team totals went 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, and 9-11 O-U
Dogs that exceeded their team total went 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71%) and 9-12 (43%)
|01-21-23||Giants v. Eagles -8||Top||7-38||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points
Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%).
Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage.
From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM
|01-21-23||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-27||Win||100||6 h 40 m||Show|
Jacksonville vs Kansas City
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books.
So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons.
Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total.
Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past.
|01-01-23||Rams v. Chargers -6.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
LA Rams vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points
Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS.
From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015.
|01-01-23||Panthers v. Bucs -3.5||Top||24-30||Win||100||3 h 59 m||Show|
Carolina vs Tampa Bay
5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points
After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages.
Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons.
|01-01-23||Jaguars -3 v. Texans||Top||31-3||Win||100||3 h 49 m||Show|
Jacksonville vs Houston
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points
Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets.
The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season.
Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location.
From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|01-01-23||Saints v. Eagles -5||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||3 h 48 m||Show|
New Orleans vs Philadelphia
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points
Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread.
From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018.
|12-31-22||Ohio State +6 v. Georgia||Top||41-42||Win||100||29 h 44 m||Show|
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Ohio State Buckeye plus the points
All the Buckeyes wanted was another opportunity to redeem themselves, just as Georgia did a year ago. The Bulldogs lost 41-24 to Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game but as the No. 3 seed in the CFP downed No. 2 Michigan 34-11 before defeating No. 1 Alabama 33-18 for the national championship. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud led the nation in passer efficiency rating. He threw for 3,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, and six interceptions but will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson due to injuries. Even so, Marvin Harrison Jr. had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes have plenty of big-play ability. Ohio State is extraordinarily deep in talent on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense.
Ohio State is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when not playing at home and coming off a home loss since 1990. The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost their last five games against the spread when facing ranked foes and as a DOG, though, and facing a ranked foe they are
Buckeye head coach Day is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses to the spread and Bulldog HC Smart is 8-20 ATS following a game that his team covered the spread and was priced as double-digit favorites.
From the predictive model, we are expecting Ohio State to score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play OR gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt. In past games in which Ohio State met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 71-2 SU record and 56-16-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 20-0 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Exercise discipline first and foremost and bet on Ohio State.
|12-28-22||Kansas v. Arkansas -2||Top||53-55||Push||0||4 h 36 m||Show|
Kansas vs Arkansas
4% 8-Unit best bet on Arkansas and if this line moves to pick-em or less than a 2-point favorite consider the money line.
From the predictive model, Arkansas is expected to score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Arkansas met or exceeded these measures has led to a 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS mark over the past five seasons.
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +5.5||Top||21-23||Win||100||1 h 51 m||Show|
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo
4% 8-Unit best bet plus the points and sprinkle the money line with a .5 added bet
Betting on underdogs of six or fewer points playing on a neutral field after the week 4 that are coming off two consecutive losses to the spread and the most recent ATS was a game in which they were lined as double-digit favorites has earned an 11-9 record on the money line and a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If a bowl game these dogs have gone 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS for 71.4% winning bets.
Georgia Southern is getting the large majority of the bets being made and presents a contrarian opportunity for us in this bowl game. Dogs of 3.5 to 0.5 points playing in bowl games getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them have gone 109-687 ATS for 62% winning bets and a solid 22% ROI. I am going with Bowling Green in this one.
|12-25-22||Packers v. Dolphins -3||Top||26-20||Loss||-120||5 h 47 m||Show|
Packers vs Dolphins
5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins
Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders.
The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games.
Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets.
|12-24-22||Eagles +5 v. Cowboys||Top||34-40||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Dallas
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points
Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets.
Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through.
Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners.
|12-24-22||Bills -8 v. Bears||35-13||Win||100||2 h 23 m||Show|
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills minus the points
Bills are 8-3 ATS when taking on a losing record team in games played over the past three seasons. Bills are 6-0 ATS coming off a win of 6 or fewer points and with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the past three seasons. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 ATS following a win by three or fewer points.
From the predictive model, the Bills are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons when scoring 28 or more points and outgaining their foe by at least 100 total yards. Bet the Bills and forget the weather for once.
|12-24-22||Giants v. Vikings -4||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||2 h 23 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Vikings minus the points
Betting on any team playing on a Saturday that is coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an unprofitable 11-24-2 ATS record for 31% winning bets and targets the Giants to fade in this matchup. If the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points these teams have gone just 5-12 ATS for 29%.
Giants are 0-6 ATS when facing excellent passing teams completing 64% or more of their past attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Minnesota is 30-13-1 ATS following a game in which they scored no more than three points in the first half over the past 30 seasons. Teams, like the Vikings, who scored 7 or fewer points in the first half, but then scored 34 or more points in total in their previous game go on to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record over the past five seasons.
|12-24-22||Falcons +6.5 v. Ravens||Top||9-17||Loss||-105||2 h 22 m||Show|
Atlanta vs Baltimore
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons plus the points
The weather forecast is for the game time temperature to be 15 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Saturday afternoon's game at M&T Bank Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing diagonally across the field will make passing and kicking difficult.
Betting on teams that have gone five consecutive games in which they forced no more than a single turnover in each of those games and now facing a foe coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse has earned a highly profitable 68-39 ATS record for 64% winners. If this team is in a non-conference game and coming off a divisional game, they have gone 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|12-24-22||Bengals -3 v. Patriots||Top||22-18||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs New England
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals minus the points
Betting road favorites that are averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and coming off a horrid game in which they gained an average of only 5 or fewer passing yards per attempt are 19-4 ATS good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from week 10 on out, the system has gone 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets.
|12-22-22||Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor||Top||30-15||Win||100||33 h 47 m||Show|
Air Force vs Baylor
4% 8-Unit best bet on Air Force plus the points
Betting on Armed Forces teams, Air Force, Army, and Nay, priced as underdogs of seven or fewer points OR favored and facing a foe that is averaging at least 24 or more PPG on the season in any bowl game has earned a 19-8 SU record and 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 bowl seasons and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
This will be the first time since 1977 that these two football programs will compete on the gridiron. Air Force senior Brad Roberts led the Mountain West Conference in rush attempts (308) and rushing yards (1621) this season. Roberts is the program’s all-time leader in career rush attempts (671) and ranks third in career yards (3429) trailing only Dee Dowis (3612) and Asher Clark (3594).
Five of Baylor's six losses this season came against AP-Top 25 ranked opponents. It is Baylor’s most losses to ranked teams in a single season since 2008 (6 losses). Air Force has a lot to play for after underperforming preseason expectations as the favorite to win the MWC starting with the fact that they have a shot at a 10-win season, which is an impressive accomplishment at a service academy. And it would be a nice footnote to the fact they've already claimed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after beating Army and Navy.
Air Force is 19-10 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (68%) following a game in which they allowed 250 or fewer yard sand 14 or fewer points and 7-0 ATS if priced as a dog and 4-0 ATS if involving a bowl game venue. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been at the head of the program since the start of the 2007 season and has played in 11 bowl games. When the total has been between 42.5 and 49 points, his Falcons are 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets and 9-3 ATS when priced as a dog.
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +3.5||23-44||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
Western Kentucky vs South Alabama
3.5% 7-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points and if your money line price is at +150 or higher then add a 1-Unit amount. That is WHY this is graded as a 7-unit bet on the spread. If you want to be all 8-units getting the points that is a perfectly sound strategy too.
Betting on teams playing in the post season bowl slate, is receiving less than 40% of the tickets bet and is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points has earned a 110-68-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets. A variation of this algorithm has earned a 62-30-2 ATS record for 68% winning bets and instructs to be on dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points with a closing total of 70 or fewer points, receiving 33% or fewer of the tickets bet in the bowl game.
South Alabama is one of six current FBS teams that has never won a bowl game with the other non-winners Charlotte, Texas State, ULM, UMass and UTSA. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has scored 45+ points in a bowl game four times since 2014, most in the FBS over that span. WKU leads the FBS with 63 offensive plays of 25+ yards this season. The Hilltoppers have gained at least 350 yards on offense in 27 consecutive games marking the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind only UCLA with 33 and UTSA with 29.
|12-19-22||Rams +7 v. Packers||Top||12-24||Loss||-100||10 h 8 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the seven points and sprinkle a little bit more on the money line.
When the league's slate of prime-time games came out in the spring, a mid-December matchup between the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the three-time defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field sounded like TV ratings gold. No one though this would end up being a meaningless matchup, BUT it is the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams that have been playing with a sense of pride and ambition going with the starters the have available. he Rams have just 13 points on their 14 total takeaways this season, half as many points as any other team (Denver ranks 31st with 26 takeaway points). The Packers have allowed 35 giveaway points on their 17 turnovers this season, tied for fifth fewest in the league. So, if the4re was ever a game in which the Rams will take full advantage of Packers Aaron Rogers turnovers, it will be tonight. Head coach McVay is 17-7-1 ATS in game splayed in December.
There have been two times in the Super Bowl era where a quarterback came off the bench, threw for 200+ yards, rallied from 13+ points down to win and snapped his team's winless streak of six or more games. One was Baker Mayfield's Browns debut in 2018, and the other was his Rams debut last week and that is impressive to say the least. He and the Rams have everything to prove on the field tonight, especially Mayfield.
From the predictive model the Rams are 26-11-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when gaining 5.0 or more yards per play and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes in games played over the last five seasons and 7-3 ATS when priced as the uderdog.
|12-19-22||Connecticut +12.5 v. Marshall||Top||14-28||Loss||-113||5 h 10 m||Show|
Marshall vs UCONN
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UCONN plus the points
UConn (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O=U)) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games and covered the spread in all six, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty.
Games playing on a neutral field that has a worse win percentage then the foe and are priced between a 10- and 14.5-point underdog are 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after Week 12 these double-digit dogs have earned a 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets.
|12-15-22||49ers v. Seahawks +3||Top||21-13||Loss||-100||7 h 32 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Seattle
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points
4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total
Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners.
The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team.
|12-11-22||Dolphins v. Chargers +3||Top||17-23||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
Dolphins vs Chargers
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chargers plus the points
Betting on underdogs that forcing an average of fewer than one turnover per game on the season and coming off a horrid game in which they committed three or more turnovers has earned a 46-18-3 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home as a dog against a conference foe our record improves to 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2013.
Teams, like the Dolphins, that had a five gamer win streak halted with a double-digit road loss are just 13-24-4 ATS for 35% winning bets so fading these teams has won 65% ATS of bets placed. In these games if the total has been 50+ points, the Dolphins fit into an imperfect 0-5 ATS situation.
|12-11-22||Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||7-35||Loss||-110||5 h 50 m||Show|
Bucs vs 49ers
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points
Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that is coming off a two ATS wins priced as the favorite in each game, and with the dog coming off a home win has earned a 39-21-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2010. Brady is 45-14 SU and 43-11-5 ATS when taking on a foe with the better record. Bucs are also 7-2-2 ATS coming off a game priced as the favorite and now installed as a dog spanning the past five seasons. If the Bus were favored, but failed to cover the spread in their previous game and now priced as the fog, they have gone 5-1 SUATS. Take the Bucs and sprinkle the money line a bit more.
|12-11-22||Vikings v. Lions -2||Top||23-34||Win||100||1 h 26 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Detroit
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points.
Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010.
The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010.
|12-11-22||Eagles v. Giants +7||Top||48-22||Loss||-100||1 h 25 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line
Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990.
In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game.
Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS.
|12-11-22||Jets +10 v. Bills||Top||12-20||Win||100||1 h 25 m||Show|
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted.
Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate.
|12-01-22||Bills v. Patriots +3.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
Buffalo vs New England
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline.
Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions.
The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury.
Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL.
Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.
From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%).
|11-27-22||Bears v. Jets -6.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points
I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost.
Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity.
Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.
Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored.
From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points.
|11-26-22||Notre Dame v. USC -4||Top||27-38||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs USC
5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points
From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons.
Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
|11-20-22||Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too.
Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games.
From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook.
The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons.
From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game.
|11-20-22||Lions +3 v. Giants||Top||31-18||Win||100||101 h 3 m||Show|
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants
5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year
1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022
If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread.
Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014.
From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017.
|11-20-22||Jets +3.5 v. Patriots||Top||3-10||Loss||-110||3 h 41 m||Show|
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150
Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010.
|11-20-22||Bears v. Falcons -2.5||Top||24-27||Win||100||3 h 40 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too.
Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons.
|11-16-22||Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7||31-24||Loss||-115||11 h 40 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan vs Kent State
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State –7.5 points or better
Betting on home teams from Week 8 on out that are averagig between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game and held their previous opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and facing an opponent that is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game has earned a highy profitable 45-14 SU (76%) record and 40-16-3 ATS (71.4%) record since 2015. If a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points has produced a 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) winning bets record.
The predictive mode shows an 83% probability that Kent State will score at least 31 points and have the same or fewer turnovers as Eastern Michigan. In past games in which Kent State met these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-4 SU (81%) and 16-5 ATS (76%) record since 2015. EMU is 2-28 (7%) and 7-22-1 ATS (24%) when allowing 31 or ore points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent sice 2015.
|11-13-22||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||2 h 33 m||Show|
Jaguars vs Chiefs
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline
Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games.
Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets.
|11-13-22||Browns v. Dolphins -3||Top||17-39||Win||100||2 h 33 m||Show|
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins
The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone.
Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010.
|11-13-22||Broncos +2.5 v. Titans||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||2 h 32 m||Show|
Broncos vs Titans
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos
Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets.
|11-13-22||Texans +5 v. Giants||Top||16-24||Loss||-110||2 h 31 m||Show|
Texans vs Giants
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans
Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets.
Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons.
From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers.
|11-06-22||Chargers -3 v. Falcons||Top||20-17||Push||0||5 h 45 m||Show|
Chargers vs Falcons
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers
Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets.
Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher.
|10-29-22||USC -14 v. Arizona||Top||45-37||Loss||-110||9 h 41 m||Show|
USC vs Arizona
5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points
USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29.
The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game.
Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets.
Take USC minus the points
|10-24-22||Bears +9.5 v. Patriots||Top||33-14||Win||100||3 h 26 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs Patriots
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points
Betting on road underdogs that are facing a foe that is outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards per pass attempt, after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in their last game has earned an outstanding 73-38-3 for 65.7% ATS winners over the last five seasons. If the home favorite held their previous opponent seven or more points UNDER their team total, these teams are just 3-9 ATS for 25%. So, fading them produced a 75% winning angle.
A victory Monday night would be the 325th of his career - including the playoffs - and break a tie with Bears founder George Halas for the second-most wins by a head coach in NFL history. Hall of Famer Don Shula at 347 is the only coach with more. At age 70 and in his 23rd season with New England, Belichick became one of four people to coach at least 400 games with a single team, along with Halas (506 with Chicago), Tom Landry (454 with Dallas) and Shula (422 with Miami). Among that group, Belichick's winning percentage (.716) is the highest. He is 287-114 as New England's coach, including playoffs.
The Bears rank third against the pass, and it is not just because teams are running at will against a team that is near the bottom of the NFL in stopping the rush. Chicago has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four) and has held its opponents to a 79.9 rating.
Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions after going two seasons without one. He had six in his 2018 All-Pro season and two more the following year when he was chosen for his second Pro Bowl. Jackson has had 13 interceptions since he debuted in 2017.
|10-23-22||Packers v. Commanders +4||21-23||Win||100||2 h 54 m||Show|
Packers vs Commanders
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the points
Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has not forced an opponent turnover in two straight games has produced a 44-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. With the Commanders coming off a game in which they committed zero turnovers moves this system to an impeccable 14-3 ATS mark for 82% winning bets.
While Rodgers nurses a thumb injury on his throwing hand that is not expected to sideline the four-time MVP, Washington is turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after starter Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken right ring finger. Heinicke started 15 games last season and quite frankly, he is a better general of the offense than Wentz. During LaFleur's tenure, the Packers are 37-1 when they force at least one turnover. But the defense has not produced any takeaways during this losing streak, and they have forced only four turnovers all season.
|10-23-22||Browns +7 v. Ravens||Top||20-23||Win||100||2 h 56 m||Show|
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
1:00 EDT week 7
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns plus the points
Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 7.5 points that are facing a divisional foe with a strong offense averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play (YPPL) and outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 yards has earned a highly profitable 22-11 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
The Browns have forced no more than one takeaway in nine straight games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind a 13-game streak in 2017. However, there is a significant probability that the Ravens will commit 2+ turnovers in this game today per my predictive model. So, teams like the Browns in a road game against a divisional foe that force 2+ turnovers and have the same or fewer turnovers (win the turnover battle) have gone 20-16 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|10-23-22||Lions +7 v. Cowboys||Top||6-24||Loss||-110||2 h 55 m||Show|
Lions vs Cowboys
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the pooints
Situational Betting Algorithms
Road dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their BYE week have earned a solid 20-12 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. The Lions is the team targeted by this set of parameters and I would not hesitate to sprinkle the moneyline too.
Situational Trends and Angles
The Underdogs, who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-25-2 ATS (58%) this season. The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a terrible loss of 14 or more points. The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons.
|10-22-22||Minnesota v. Penn State -5||Top||17-45||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Penn State 7:30 PM EST
5% 10-Unit Best bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points
There is news circulating from reliable sources that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan will not be able to start tonight in Penn State’s annual white-out game set to start at 7:30 PM EST in Happy Valley. There is news too that PSU QB Sean Clifford may not start either coming off a very physical loss at Michigan last week. The difference here is I the backups and strongly favors PSU true freshman Drew Allar, who is a protype pro quarterback standing 6-5 and weighing in at 238 pounds. He has incredible leg strength and is hard to tackle pulling out of many would be tackler attempts. Most important is that he may be the best quarterback in the game today.
He has appeared in four games this season completing 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. How in the world Ohio State let this player get out of their grasps is somewhat mind blowing. Rated as a five-star prospect by 247Sports and On3 and a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals...Rated the top quarterback prospect in the country and the No. 3 overall prospect by 247Sports.Named the 2021 Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, Max Preps Ohio Player of the Year and a first-team all-state selection in Division I... Selected Greater Cleveland Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Northeast Ohio Inland District Division I Offensive Player of the Year, Cleveland.com Offensive Player of the Year and Medina County MVP. As a junior and senior, was an Ohio Division I first team and Greater Cleveland Conference first team honoree. Completed 305-of-511 passes (60 percent) for 4,444 yards and 48 passing touchdowns his senior season, setting Medina County records for yards and touchdowns.
PSU head coach James Franklin is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games. PSU is 40-20-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Minnesota is just 7-19 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7 points.
|10-22-22||Marshall v. James Madison -11.5||26-12||Loss||-110||6 h 27 m||Show|
Marshall vs James Madison
4% 8-Unit bets bet on James Madison minus the points
Marshall is just 24-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games in the last 20 seasons and 2-9 ATS over the last five seasons. After shocking Notre Dame in a 26-21 win in Week 2 the Herd has been stumbling losing 3 of their last 4 and the last four games to the spread. James Madison is coming off their first loss of the season and are 5-1 SUATS.
|10-22-22||UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon||Top||30-45||Loss||-110||6 h 25 m||Show|
UCLA vs Oregon
4% 8-Unit best bet on the UCLA Bruins plus the points
Well, this is a big showdown with monumental consequences for the loser of this PAC-12 matchup. UCLA is one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the nation. After Week 7, teams that are undefeated and facing a foe that has won 80% or more of their games and has covered the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games has earned a 19-6-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets.
Teams that are 6-0 on the season and facing a foe coming off a double-digit win and with a total between 65 and 72 points are 5-1 SUATS for 83% winning bets. Bet UCLA
|10-22-22||Rice -2.5 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||42-41||Loss||-110||6 h 58 m||Show|
Rice vs LA-Tech 3:00 EDT
4% best bet on the Rice Owls minus the points
Betting on road favorites facing an opponent that is allowing 31 or more points per game and is coming off two consecutive games in which a combined score of 60 or more points was scored has earned a 235-52 SU record for 82% and 180-103-4 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the game is between 55 and 60 points, the record improves to 67-12 for 85% and 53-25-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
|10-22-22||Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5||Top||27-34||Win||100||4 h 55 m||Show|
Toledo vs Buffalo
4% 8-Unit best bet on Buffalo plus the points
Buffalo is 12-3 ATS when facing a strong offense averaging 37 or more points-per-game. Buffalo is 13-3 ATS after winning four of their last five games. Toledo is running hot but prone to a regression matchup here against Buffalo; Toledo is averaging 38.4 PPG and posting a 10.5 yards-per-point, but their defense has suffered allowing 31 PPG and a 12.6 yards-per-point ratio.
Teams, like Buffalo, that have covered or pushed against the spread and won all four games have gone on to a 16-6 ATS record for 73% winners.
|10-22-22||Syracuse +14.5 v. Clemson||Top||21-27||Win||100||3 h 57 m||Show|
Syracuse vs Clemson
4% best bet on Syracuse plus the points
Betting on road underdogs between 9 and 17.5 points in a conference matchup when the total is between 45 and 50 points has earned a 105-58-7 for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is undefeated on the season, they have gone 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets last 10 seasons.
|10-22-22||Indiana v. Rutgers -3||Top||17-24||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
Indiana vs Rutgers
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
Hoosiers are just 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games. Hoosiers head coach Allen is 1-9 ATS following a game with a –2 or worse turnover margin.
From the predictive model, Indiana is expected to gain less than 3 yards per carry and for Rutgers to score 28 or more points. Rutgers is 17-0 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in hoe games scoring 28 or ore points and allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Indiana is 1-18 SU and 6-13 ATS in road games rushing for less than 3 yards per carry and allowing 28 or more points.
|10-20-22||Virginia +3 v. Georgia Tech||Top||16-9||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
Virginia vs Georgia Tech
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points
Betting on dogs of 3 to 10 points in games played from weeks 5 to 9, are coming off two consecutive double-digit losses to conference foes are 39-46 SU, 57-25-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since the start of the 2013 season spanning 10 season and only the 2021, season had a losing record at 2-5 ATS.
Teams like UVA that have covered the spread on no more than of their last six games, lined as a dog of not more than 4.5 points and with the total between 45 and 50 points has earned a 15-9 ATS record good for 63% winning bets.
|10-17-22||Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers||Top||16-19||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
Denver vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the points
These two NFL teams are heading in opposite directions with the Broncos vastly underperforming losing their last two games to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts by nine and three points respectively. Their last lost to the Colts was a dreadful performance scoring just nine points and somehow losing 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been positively pathetic ranking dead last averaging 15 points-per-game and with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games
The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by -6 points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. Despite, 65% of the tickets bet being on the Chargers, the line has declined to make the Chargers a 4.5-point home favorite. If more bettors have bet on the Chargers accounting for 65% of all bets placed how could the line drop? The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course and they are the larger bettors including professionals. The ‘sharps’ account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets.
Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos.
Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season
Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing 6 or fewer yards-per-play (YPPL)
From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers
Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games in which they committed two turnovers
Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers.
|10-16-22||Bengals v. Saints +3||Top||30-26||Loss||-101||4 h 35 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs New Orleans
4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points
Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.
|10-16-22||Vikings v. Dolphins +3||Top||24-16||Loss||-105||4 h 33 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Miami
4% best bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points
Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are coming off an upset road loss and has won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season has earned a 28-24 SU record, 34-18 ATS record good for 65.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and if a non-divisional matchup has earned a 17-11 SU record and 20-8 SATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets.
This is a contrarian bet. Miami’s top two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, are in the concussion protocol and have lost two straight games after starting 3-0. Plus, Miami will start a rookie quarterback Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings (4-1). With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, the Dolphins will hope to build on last week's best rushing output of the year and correct their issues in defending the pass and they have had a full week for Thompson to work with the first unit, correct his footwork mistakes, and create some good timing with the wideouts.
|10-16-22||Patriots +2.5 v. Browns||Top||38-15||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
New England vs Cleveland
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Patriots plus the points
Betting on road underdogs including pick-em following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and taking on a foe that has had a turnover margin of –1 or worse in each of their past two games has led to a 32-9-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons
The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 win over the Lions, the 17th time team coached by Bill Belichick has shut out their opponent. That is more shutouts than the combined total of the next three active coaches with the most team shutouts (John Harbaugh (5), Mike Tomlin (5) and Mike McCarthy (4).
|10-13-22||Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida||Top||13-70||Loss||-110||28 h 50 m||Show|
Temple vs UCF
4% 8-Unit best bet on UCF minus the points I loaded this up wrong and the bet is ON UCF !!!
Betting on favorites of 23.5 to 31.5points following two consecutive wins by 17 or more points and facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 56-1 SU and 39-16-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010.
|10-13-22||Baylor -3.5 v. West Virginia||Top||40-43||Loss||-102||28 h 49 m||Show|
Baylor vs West Virginia
4% 8-Unit best bet on Baylor minus the points
Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a conference foe, has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season and facing a losing record foe has earned a 26-16 ATS mark for 62% winning bets and if that foe averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush in their previous game the record goes to 33-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% wining bets.
From the predictive model, Baylor is 24-4 SU and 22-6 ASTS for 79% winning bets when scoring 28+ points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons.
|10-12-22||UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall||Top||23-13||Win||100||4 h 20 m||Show|
LA Lafayette vs Marshall
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns plus the points.
Marshall is just 7-19 ATS in a home game when the total has been between 42.5 and 49.5 points over the past 10 seasons; 21-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games SU; 15-34-1 ATs following two games io which they committed no more than a single turnover in each.
From my predictive model, LAL is expected to score 24 or more points and have fewer turnovers than Marshall. In past games in which they achieved those measures, they have gone on to earn a 27-2 SU mark and 20-8-1nATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and when priced as the dog, 7-1 SUATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|10-09-22||Eagles -5 v. Cardinals||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||4 h 13 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals
5% MAX 10-Unit best Bet on the Eagles minus the points
As I had mentioned on several occasions before the preseason started, I truly believed the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in many seasons- not just this season. They know this is a letdown spot for them with travel to the Est Coast and they will be more than ready to play and fully focused to get to 5-0 on the season. The Phillies winning their playoff series last night, whether they know it or not, will feed into this club too, and they will hardly want to come back home to Philadelphia having let down the fan base. This is an intangible but one I think favors the Eagles in a big way.
Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in home games after outgaining the previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 8-15 ATS in home games when the total has been 45 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Cardinals head coach Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
From my predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score at least 24 or more points. In past games in which the Cardinals allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed 24 or more points they have gone 3-11-1 ATS for 21% over the past five seasons. The Eagles are 12-2-1 for 86% winning bets when rushing the ball for 150 or more yards and scoring 24 or more points in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-08-22||Fresno State v. Boise State -7.5||Top||20-40||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
Fresno State vs Boise State
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Boise State minus the points
9:45 PM EST
Fresno head coach Tedford is 0-7 ATS following a game in which he gained 225 or fewer yards.
From the predictive model, we are expecting Fresno to gain less than 100 rushing yards and for Boise to score at least 28 points. In past games in which Boise State scored 28 or more points and held their opponent to less than 100 RY has seen them earn a 61-4 SU record and a 45-17-2 SATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. If the game is at home, BSU is 31-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.
|10-08-22||Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5||Top||10-9||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
K-State vs Iowa State
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State has won three of its last four games versus Kansas State after the Wildcats had won each of the previous 10 contests. The last matchup that was played in Ames resulted in a 45-0 victory for the Cyclones. The Wildcats (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) have lost two straight games to the Cyclones (3-2, 0-2) and have fallen in their last two trips to Ames. Their loss in 2018 broke a 10-game winning streak vs. Iowa State. The Wildcats are within three games of evening the all-time series, which Iowa State leads 52-49-4.
The Wildcats enter Saturday's game riding a two-game winning streak -- impressive victories at Oklahoma and against Texas Tech. Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez has earned Big 12 Player of the Week honors in each of the past two weeks, getting the offensive honor following the win over Oklahoma and newcomer honors after downing Texas Tech.
From the predictive models, we are looking for ISU to gain at least 150 rushing yards, score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. IN past games in which the Cyclones met these measures they have earned a 40-10 SU record and 40-9-1 ATS for 82% winning bets since 1989 and is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|10-08-22||North Carolina +3.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||27-24||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
North Carolina vs Miami (FLA)
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UNC plus the points
Betting on teams that are facing an opponent coming off a horrid loss priced as a 20 or greater favorite has produced a 97-201 SU record, 113-83-3 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If these failures were ranked against an unranked team in that terrible loss, the next opponent playing them has earned a 19-30 SU record, but a solid 31-17-1 SATS mark good for 65% winning bets. If our team we are betting on is the dog, they go just 9-26 SU, but 23-11-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If that opponent was ranked while enduing their most recent monster loss and now fell out of the Top-25 now, their opponents feast on the in a big way going 11-13 SU and 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets.
|10-08-22||Virginia Tech +15 v. Pittsburgh||Top||29-45||Loss||-110||6 h 37 m||Show|
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
|10-08-22||Wisconsin -10 v. Northwestern||Top||42-7||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
Wisconsin vs Northwestern
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Wisconsin minus the points
3:30 start time
Wisconsin is 20-5 ATS for 80% following a game in which they were outrushed by 125 or more yards. NWU is just 1-9 ASTS following a game that played UNDER the total. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games.
NWU head coach Fitzgerald is 0-6 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread but did not win the game. He is also 8-18 SATS following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers.
Betting on favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are on a two or more game losing streak and have a win percentage between 40% and 50% on the season (Wisconsin is 2-3 for 40% win percentage) have gone 47-3 SU and 37-13 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2010.
|10-08-22||TCU -7.5 v. Kansas||Top||38-31||Loss||-101||2 h 6 m||Show|
TCU vs Kansas
4% best bet on TCU minus the points
Noon EDT kickoff
Despite the line movement there is still quite a bit of value left to bet TCU minus the points. Kansas has attracted tons of public money given their Cinderella start and College Game Day is making their first appearance to Lawrence, Kansas. The sharps are betting TCU.
Teams involved in a matchup of teams with win percentages of 80% and higher and facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games have gone 46-23-3 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2015.
|10-02-22||Chiefs v. Bucs||Top||41-31||Loss||-118||9 h 26 m||Show|
Chiefs vs Bucs
5% 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Bucs
4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total
I am not betting this as a parlay and instead will bet 75% of my normal 10-Unit amount on the Bucs prior to kickoff and then IF the Chiefs score a touchdown first or get a 7-point first half lead, I will add the remaining 25% using the available in-Game betting line on the Bucs. The total will be bet with the 8-Unit normal amount prior to kickoff. Now, if you have a promo for a 1-game odds boost from the likes of BetMGM, then make that bet with no more than 2.5 Unit amount.
Betting on teams that made the playoffs last season, won 12 games last season and are coming off a loss priced as a home favorite and with the current game having a total of 46.5 or fewer points has earned a 38-18-4 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 2015.
Betting Over the posted total when lined between 42.5 and 49.5 points in. a matchup of teams that have outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG and with one of the teams (KC) coming off two consecutive Under results as earned a 36-18 mark good for 67% winning Over bets. If both teams are coming off back-to-back Under results the Over is 14-2-2 ATS for 88% winning bets
From the predictive mode, we are expecting both teams to score 24 or more points and with the Bucs having the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Bucs met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 25-3 SU record and 23-4-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over for 80% when scoring 24 or more points and having more turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past five seasons.
|10-02-22||Browns v. Falcons +1||Top||20-23||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
Browns vs Falcons
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons
Betting on a team that is averaging 32 or fewer rushes per game, is coming off an upset win in a game they had the ball for 32 or fewer minutes and now facing a foe that averages 32 or more minutes in time-of-possession has earned an outstanding 23-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets. If this team is the home team, they have gone 12-6 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2009.
Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing with plenty of confidence. He earned first downs on 65.0 percent (13-for20) of his pass attempts in the Falcons' win at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. That's the second highest first-down percentage for Mariota in any of his 64 NFL starts. Mariota's highest percentage (73.3%, 11 of 15) came in his NFL debut, a 42-14 Tennessee Titans win at Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the 2015 season.
|10-02-22||Bills -3 v. Ravens||Top||23-20||Push||0||3 h 13 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Baltimore
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bills minus the points
Betting on teams in a game lined between the 3’s and with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a road game in which they and their opponents both scored 24 or more points, with the game occurring between weeks 4 and 7 has earned a 19-10 SU record and 20-9 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons without a single losing season.
Eleven different Buffalo players caught at least one pass in Sunday's loss at Miami. That's a Bills franchise record for one game and the highest total for one team in an NFL game this season. The accomplishment how deep the Bills receivers are this season and also Josh Allen’s incredible accuracy and knowing where the holes are in the defense. I think the same thing happens here in Baltimore.
|09-29-22||Dolphins +3.5 v. Bengals||Top||15-27||Loss||-108||12 h 1 m||Show|
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points
The Miami defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in their dramatic 21-19 over the Buffalo Bills last week. The impact of the extra time of the field is minimal since we are in the beginning part of the season. They did play a large number of minutes, but it has not been in consecutive games. I do expect their secondary to be significantly better tonight than they have been played in the first three games.
Teams playing on Thursday Night Football and had 27.5 or fewer minutes in time of possession in their previous game that they won has earned a 19-17 SU record and 22-13-1 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets.
Betting on road underdogs including pick-em from week-4 on to the end of the regular seasons that are scoring 24 or more PPG on the season and coming off a win of three or fewer points has earned a 78-42-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989 and a highly profitable 22-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets.
Bet the Miami Dolphins plus the points and if your moneyline is at +150 or higher, then add a sprinkle amount, pizza money size, with that moneyline.
|09-26-22||Cowboys +1 v. Giants||Top||23-16||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys getting the point. The moneyline will be cheaper vig, but I recommend to only bet the moneyline at -105 or better.
With the Philadelphia Eagles destroying the Washington Commanders and now at 3-0 for the season, this becomes a very important game for these two fellow NFC East Rivals. The Cowboys are without their quarterback and All=Pro Dak Prescott, but his backup Cooper Rush has stepped in and played quite well against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Cowboys defense also stepped up big and will again tonight against the Giants.
Teams, like Dallas, that are coming off an upset win priced as an underdog and now playing on Monday Night against a divisional foe and priced as a dog of 4 or fewer points including pick-em have gone 10-4 SU and ATS for 71.4% winning bets.
Teams, like Dallas, that had a winning record last season and coming off an upset win, and now playing against a divisional foe on Monday Night priced as the underdog including pick-em are 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 17-3 ATS in road games when the total has been priced between 35.5 and 42 points for his career.
From the predictive model, The Cowboys defense will keep the Giants from scoring 17 or more points and will allow fewer than 175 passing yards. In past games played since 1989, teams that have allowed less than 175 passing yards and fewer than 17 points have gone on to a 943-300-48 ATS record good for 76% winning bets, 227-49 SU for 82% and 215-54-7 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
|09-25-22||Ravens v. Patriots +2.5||37-26||Loss||-105||2 h 19 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots 1:00 EDT
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Patriots plus the points.
Betting on underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points in the first four week of the season that averaged 24 or more PPG in their previous season and priced as an underdog including pick-em games has earned a solid 31-25 SU record and 38-18 ATS betting mark good for 68% winning wagers since 2018.
With change comes new opportunities. And Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is experiencing new freedom in New England's revamped offense.
In last week's win at Pittsburgh, the Patriots mixed in some run-pass option plays, which were a staple of the offense Jones ran at Alabama. He also said he has been given a lot more freedom to give his receivers more opportunities on deep "50-50" one-on-one opportunities. Jones had success last week, connecting with Nelson Agholor on a 44-yard touchdown. The Ravens allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 469 yards and six touchdowns against them last weekend, and Miami rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 42-38. Now the Raven’s secondary, limited by injuries recently, goes up against Jones and New England.
|09-25-22||Bills v. Dolphins +5||19-21||Win||100||2 h 18 m||Show|
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dolphins plus the points
Bet on home underdogs that are coming off a game in which they trailed by 21 or more points at the half and taking on a guest that is coming off a win of 14 or more points has earned a 33-20 ATS record good for 62.3% winning bets. If the road team is coming off two consecutive double-digit wins, our dog improves to 17-9 ATS for 65.4% winning bets.
Also, betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in each of their two previous games and taking on a visitor that is coming off a game in which they allowed 5.6 or fewer yards per pass attempt has gone on to earn 24-13-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past 20 seasons, if the matchup defined above is a divisional one, the record has been a highly consistent and highly profitable 30-14 ATS for 68.2% winning bets.
Plus, road favorites that have outscored their opponents by 50 or more points in total over their last two games and facing a divisional host are 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. Bet the Fish.
|09-25-22||Lions +6 v. Vikings||24-28||Win||100||2 h 18 m||Show|
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 EST
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline
Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are scoring 28 or more PPG on the season has produced a 40-73 SU record for 35% upset wins and 74-27-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015 and has earned a 50-100-2 SU record and 96-53-3 ATS record for 64.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and has NOT had a losing ATS record ion any of those 10 seasons.
When Jared Goff's pass on the last play of the game in Detroit last year sailed across the goal line and landed in the arms of a rookie named Amon-Ra St. Brown to stick Minnesota with a stunning defeat, the identity of the receiver seemed rather insignificant at the time. That dramatic ending on Dec. 5 also turned out to be the beginning of a remarkable run for St. Brown, who has blossomed into a legitimate star of a potent Lions offense. The fourth-round draft pick out of USC has eight or more receptions in eight consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in NFL history.
Many Vikings cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers were carved up last week in Philadelphia by quarterback Jalen Hurts in their 24-7 loss, and rookie Akayleb Evans took over for the terrible play of Cameron Dantzler Sr. for much of the second half opposite veteran Patrick Peterson. So, Goff is playing with confidence and perhaps more so than any other time of his career.
The Lions have scored a touchdown in 15 straight quarters for the longest such streak in franchise history and the NFL's longest active run. They have scored at least 35 points in the first two games of a season for the first time since 1970.
|09-24-22||Kansas State +13.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||41-34||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs Kansas State
5% 10-Unit best Bet on the Kansas State plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline. There will be at least three more College Football releases for the Saturday card, so be sure to check back early Saturday morning by 7 AM EST for those additional best bets.
A little history and background. Sooner head coach Brent Venables was a walk-on linebacker for Kansas State in the early 1990s and carved out a role with the Wildcats, then began his coaching career there before joining Bob Stoops' Oklahoma staff after the 1998 season. Venables has coached against his alma mater multiple times, but Saturday's game will be his first against Kansas State as head coach.
Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez also has had strong success against the Sooners. Martinez was Nebraska's quarterback last season in a 23-16 loss at Oklahoma, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown with one interception and ran for 34 yards and another score. Oklahoma snapped a two-game losing streak against Kansas State with a 37-31 win in last year's tilt between these teams in Manhattan. Four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by seven points or fewer.
K-State is 28-13 ATS coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. Sooners are 7-19 ATS in home games allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games.
From the predictive model, we are looking for K-State to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 27 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 19-1 SU record and 15-4-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets.
|09-24-22||Florida +11 v. Tennessee||Top||33-38||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
Florida vs Tennessee 3:30 PM EST
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline
My research simply states that this is just too many points in this rivalry dominated by Florida. Vols head coach Heupel is 3-13 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-playing his previous game.
From the predictive model, we are looking for Florida to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 31 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 76-1 SU record and 59-15-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 22-0 SU and 15-6-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|09-18-22||Texans +10 v. Broncos||Top||9-16||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Houston Texans plus the points and sprinkle the money line. Also take no more than .5% amount and create a money line parlay with the Texans and the Jets – just in case they both pull of the upset wins.
Betting on road underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that allowed 325 or more yards-per-game in the previous season and coming off a game in which their defense allowed 450 or more total yards has earned an 18-35 SU record and 36-14-3 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. And if the matchup is against a non-divisional foe the record improves to 11-25 SU and 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Bengals v. Cowboys +7||Top||17-20||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points and a little sprinkle on the moneyline.
I see this as a massive overreaction to the recent events surrounding the Cowboys and now represents a darn good betting opportunity. Even with Dak Prescott out of the lineup, there is a solid betting system that is not dependent on who is running the offense. Betting on underdogs that were top-level passing teams from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more passing yards-per-attempt has earned an outstanding 26-10 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the current game is lower than 48 points, these home pups have gone 6-8 SU and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Jets +6.5 v. Browns||Top||31-30||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points and add a little sprinkle on the money line.
With one of the NFL's best offensive lines and two talented backs, the Browns know what works for them and so does the Jets defense. The Jets shut down Baltimore's running game last week, holding the Ravens to just 63 yards and containing dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson, who only got 17 on six attempts.
Jets fall into a decent betting angle as well noting that road dogs of 4.5 to 6.5 points that are coming a game in which they averaged less than 6 yards gain after the catch and forced no more than one opponent turnover have produced a 37-22 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs in the first four weeks of the season, these road dogs are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Bucs -2.5 v. Saints||Top||20-10||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs minus the points.
Betting on teams when the money line prices then between a -150 favorite and +150 dog in a divisional matchup that are coming off a win but failed to cover the spread have produced a healthy 29-10 ATS record over the past 15 seasons. This reflects the use of the money line to group and filter favorable betting situations. Saints head coach Allen is just 1-9 Ats following a game in which a combined 50 or more points were scored.
From the predictive model, we are looking for the Bucs to score at least 24 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. The Bucs are 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets in road games, scoring 24 or more points, and gaining at least 5.25 Yards-per-play in games played over the past three seasons.
|09-18-22||Patriots -3 v. Steelers||Top||17-14||Push||0||2 h 25 m||Show|
New England vs Pittsburgh
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots minus the points
From my predictive model, the Patriots are expected to score at least 24 points and outgain the Steelers by at least 100 total yards. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures under head coach Belichick has led to a 81-3 SU record and 75-9 ATS record good for 89% winning bets. Under Belichick when he is coming off a loss and then outgains his next opponent by at least 100 total yards has produced a 25-1 SU record and a 23-3 ATS record.
|09-15-22||Chargers +4 v. Chiefs||Top||24-27||Win||100||3 h 1 m||Show|
Chargers vs Kansas City
4% best bet on the Chargers plus the points. and spronkle a bit more on the moneyline if it is at +150 or higher.
Last week the Chiefs offense was in full gear as Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 39 asses gaining 360 yards including five touchdowns in their 44-21 domination of the Arizona Cardinals, who were a vastly depleted squad. I do not see Mahomes throwing five touchdowns in this matchup against a defense I believe is one of the best in the AFC.
Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points facing an opponent that forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 153-105-1 ATS record good for 58% winning bets. If our road dog is lined between 3.5 and 7.5 points with the game taking place in the first four weeks of the regular season has produced a 31-15 ATS record good for 67.4% winning bets.
From the predictive models, the Chargers defense is expected to force two or more turnovers and the offense is expected to gain at least 350 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to produce a highly profitable 52-16-2 ATS for 77% winners over the last 20 seasons.
|09-12-22||Broncos v. Seahawks +7||Top||16-17||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
Denver vs Seattle
Monday Night Football
5% MAX Best Bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points
I like a sprinkle on the money line not to exceed a .5% or 1-Unit amount
One option for this matchup is to bet 70% pre-flop on the Seahawks plus the 6.5 points and then look for Denver to score first either by field goal or touchdown and then add the remaining 30% with the in-game line that may be as high as 10.5 to 11 points. We saw this in many games Sunday with an opponent trailing only to recover to tie the game and even win it. The Giants comeback being most notable in their road win over the Tennessee Titans.
Betting against favorites in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup of teams that both failed to make the postseason in their previous season and with the dog having won between 5 and 9 games in their previous season has produced an exceptional 32-16-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015. Plus, if our dog is getting 4.5 or more points has seen them go 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.
Over the last 10 seasons, home dogs facing a divisional foe in the first three weeks of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-14-1 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. And the clincher knowing that these divisional home dogs of three or more points are 8-3-1 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
|09-11-22||Colts v. Texans +7.5||20-20||Win||100||2 h 13 m||Show|
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Texans plus the points
As was the case with the Falcons, home underdogs in week-1 facing a divisional foe are 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Colts to commit two turnovers and for the Texans to gain 125 rushing yards. The Texans are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% wins when they have gained at least 100 yards and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers and if the opponent commits 2 or more turnovers the Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets.
|09-11-22||Ravens v. Jets +6.5||Top||24-9||Loss||-105||2 h 14 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points
There is uncertainty at the WR position for the Ravens coming into this season. They traded Marquis Brown, which leaves second-year sophomore Rashod Bateman as the top returning starter to the offense. The Jets will be a different team this season with rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick, winning a starting job. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, taken six picks later, will be a prominent part of the offense and defensive end Jermaine Johnson, picked 26th overall, will be in the rotation for perhaps the team's best and deepest unit, which I see capable of conatining or even
Running back Breece Hall, a second round draft pick, is part of a strong 1-2 backfield punch with Michael Carter – and they are healthy.
Betting on home underdogs un week 1 that are facing a conference foe that had a losing record in the previous season has earned a solid 20-9-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1992 and 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets last 10 seasons.
|09-11-22||Saints v. Falcons +5.5||Top||27-26||Win||100||2 h 14 m||Show|
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the points
Since 2012, home dogs in a divisional matchup in week-1 action have gone 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
Over the last 10 seasons, betting on underdogs in the first month of the season that are facing a favorite that did not make it to the playoffs, but did win their last two games of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets. Over the past five season, this set of parameters earned a 9-2 ATS record for 82% winning bets.
|09-11-22||49ers -6.5 v. Bears||Top||10-19||Loss||-110||2 h 13 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Chicago
4% best bet on the SF 49ers minus the points
From the predictive models, the 49ers are expected to gain at least 7.75 yards per pass attempt and gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games when the 49ers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures, they have gone on to earn a 19-3 SU record, 18-4 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. If they gain 150 or more rushing yards in this situation, they are 13-1 SU and ATS for 93% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Also, prop bet for 1% and no more than 2 units Over 62.5 rushing yards by Elijah Mitchell.
|09-11-22||Eagles -5.5 v. Lions||Top||38-35||Loss||-110||2 h 12 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions
4% 8-Unit bets bet on the Eagles minus the points
The Eagles averaged more rushing attempts than any other franchise last season. With JB Brown being acquired in the offseason, that rush percentage will be significantly lower, but the Eagles may still average a ton of rushing yards per game this season. The models project that the Eagles will gain at least 160 rushing yards in this matchup and have at least a 3-minute advantage in time of possession. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to earn a 12-1-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|09-10-22||Houston v. Texas Tech -4||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||8 h 5 m||Show|
Houston vs Texas Tech
4% best bet 8-Units on Texas Tech minus the points
We had UTSA, who led for the majority of the game last week against Houston and only overtime saved Houston from an upset loss in week 1. Now, they step up in competition on the road against a solid Big-12 foe in Texas Tech. Ranked teams off an ATS loss and installed as a dog of 4 or more points in a game with a total of 60 or more points (expected shootout) are just 5-23 SU and 8-17-2 ATS for 35% and if on the road are an imperfect 0-12 SU and 2-9-1 ATS for 18% over the last 10 seasons.
|09-10-22||Alabama v. Texas +21||20-19||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
Alabama vs Texas
This is a very intriguing matchup and the public betting community is all over Alabama in this one. However, I think the Longhorn ground attack is much better than advertised and will be able to move chains. When you can run the ball against Alabama just enough to have it respected, it opens up the entire playbook for coach Sarkisian, who is 13-3 ATS in home games following a non-conference game for his career. He is also 16-4-1 ATS in home games played in the month of September and 15-4-1 ATS in the first four weeks of the season.
Texas is 9-24 SU, but 19-14 ATS for 58% as a double-digit underdog since 1989 and 4-0 ATS over the past five seasons. From the predictive models there is high probability that the Longhorns will gain a minimum of 100 rushing yards and when they have achieved that and are priced as double-digit dogs has seen them cash at a 8-4 ATS clip for 67% winning bets. Also, ‘Bama is just 4-9 ATS for 31% when priced as a double-digit favorite and allowing 125 or more rushing yards to a ranked foe.
|09-10-22||North Carolina -7 v. Georgia State||Top||35-28||Push||0||4 h 5 m||Show|
North Carolina vs Georgia State
4% best bet on UNC minus the points
UNC head coach Brown is 8-0 ATS after playing a non-conference game, 13-3-1 ATS in road games after playing two non-conference games, and 38-20-2 ATS following a game in which his defense forced no more than one turnover for his coaching career.
From the predictive model, UNC is 36-5 SU and 31-10 ATS for 76% winning bets when gaining at least 200 rushing yards and scoring at least 28 points.
|09-05-22||Clemson -23.5 v. Georgia Tech||Top||41-10||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
Clemson vs Georgia Tech
4% best bet on Georgia Tech plus the points
There has been an overwhelming amount of public betting going in favor of Clemson and forcing the line to move 5-points higher to +24 then where it opened at 19 points. 78% of the tickets bet are on the Tigers and this is the ‘red flag’ area that is one tool of mine that supports GT in this matchup tonight.
Heisman Trophy winner and former FSU quarterback Chris Weinke is the GT quarterbacks coach, and he has worked with current QB Jeff Sims extensively during the offseason and preseason training camps. The GT offense will be going up against one of the best defensive lines in College Football, but Sims has the mobility to allude the pass rush and extend plays. He has a great arm that needed experience when to not throw into tight spots and I do look forward to him taking a big step forward this season. He is a dual threat QB that will minimize the Tigers defensive front four attack knowing that containment is preferred as opposed to getting sacks.
Clemson is 0-8 ATS when the total has been between 49.5 and 56 points in games played over the last three seasons.
|09-04-22||Florida State +4 v. LSU||Top||24-23||Win||100||7 h 7 m||Show|
Florida State vs LSU
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line.
FSU is 59-34 ATS following a game in which they outgained them by at least 250 yards.
From the predictive models we are expecting FSU to score at least 27 points and gain 375 or more total yards. In past games spanning the last 5 season, FSU is 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. LSU is as a favorite and allowing 375 or more total yards and allowing at least 27 points is just 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets
Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 on the moneyline in the first two weeks of the season and was a struggling passing team completing 58% or fewer of their pass attempts in the previous season and has eight or more returning starters including their quarterback has earned a highly profitable 30-24 record averaging a +210 moneyline bet good for a 111% ROI over the last 10 seasons.
|09-03-22||Kent State +23 v. Washington||Top||20-45||Loss||-110||12 h 15 m||Show|
Kent State vs Washington 10:30 EDT
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State plus the points
Betting against favorites that have a new head coach in game one of the regular season that are coming off a season winning four or fewer games and facing a foe that won at least 4 games in their previous season has earned a 26-16 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.
Washington is 3-11 ATS in games played on turf.
Betting on road dogs in the first four games of the season, was a bowl team from the previous season and lost their season finale and the bowl games and starting a new quarterback and has five or fewer returning starters on offense has produced an exceptional 37-13-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and is 8-4 ATS for 67% over the last five seasons.
|09-03-22||Utah v. Florida +2.5||26-29||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
Utah vs Florida 7 EDT
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida Gators plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline.
These programs have only met once prior and that was back in 1977 when the Florida Gators defeated the Utah Utes 38-29 behind 531 rushing yards, which remains the programs record for most rushing yards in a game. No doubt that record will remain intact given this matchup and may never be broken given how the college football sport has evolved over the last 40+ years.
Since 2006, top-10 ranked teams playing in week 1 action and favored by fewer than 4.5 points have gone 3-7 SUATS. Top-10 ranked favorites between –3 and –9 points playing on the road in week-1 are 5-2 SU, but 1-6 ATS for 14% since 2006.
Moneyline super system. Betting on home underdogs on the moneyline that completed 62% or more of their pass attempts in the previous season and facing a non-conference foe from a Power-5 conference has produced a 24-16 record for 66% and making 32 units in profits.
Florida coach Napier is 12-1 on the moneyline in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points for his career.
|09-03-22||Houston v. UTSA +4||Top||37-35||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
UTSA vs Houston 5:30 EDT
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UTSA plus the points and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Betting on road underdogs that have nine returning offensive players including their quarterback from the previous season and with the game occurring within the first four games on their schedule has produced an exceptional 65-85 losing record BUT has averaged a +260 wager on the moneyline making $7,700 per $100 bet overt the past 10 season of action.
Betting on road underdogs that were struggling passing teams completing 58% or fewer of their attempts in the previous seasons and has nine or more starters returning on offense has produced a 22-20 record for 53% winners averaging a whopping +320 underdog bet on the moneyline.
The betting community is betting Houston with irrational exuberance with 77% of the bets made on Houston and 80% of the money on Houston. This is a red flag to bet Houston and is a contrarian indicator that supports our bet on UTSA.
|09-01-22||Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue||Top||35-31||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Penn State vs Purdue
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points.
Penn State's defense lost its top two tacklers from last season but will rely on returning linebacker Curtis Jacobs to help generate pressure against O'Connell and the Purdue offense. With a freshman right guard on the Purdue O-Line, you will see the Lions defense look to bring pressure from that side when Purdue is on their left side hashmark on the field.
The Lions and Boilermakers are meeting for the first time since 2019 and the third time since 2013. This marks the seventh straight season in which the Lions has started conference play on the road. The Nittany Lions have dominated the Boilermakers in the schools' abridged history, going 15-3-1, including winning the past eight. The Lions are 12-6 ATS for 67% winning bets and 6-2 ATS for 75% over the last eight meetings.
From my predictive models the lions are expected to score at least 27 points and gain over 100 rushing yards. In past games spanning the last 15 seasons in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have produced a 59-24 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. When priced as an away favorite, an even better 17-4 ATS for 81% and covering the spread by an average of 15 points.
|09-01-22||Ball State v. Tennessee -35.5||Top||10-59||Win||100||3 h 47 m||Show|
Ball State vs Tennessee
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Tennessee Volunteers laying the 35+ points
I must admit, I cannot remember the last time, my predictive models targeted a massive favorite of more than 28+ points, but rest assured the reasons we are on Tennessee could match the volume of the great novel the Count of Monte Crisco. The Vols lost starting receivers Velus Jones Jr. and JaVonta Payton but return leading pass catcher Cedric Tillman (64 catches, 1,081 yards, 12 TDs) to an offense that ranked second in scoring in the Southeastern Conference to Alabama with an average of 39.3 points per game. Plus, they have recently added former five-star wide receiver recruit in former USC Trojan Bru McCoy. The NCAA cleared him for immediate eligibility just last week and he adds superior depth to what is expected to be an extremely strong offense in Knoxville this season.
From the predictive models, the Vols are expected to score at least 40 points and are 99-3 SU and 86-15-1 ATS for 85% winning bets since 1989 when they have scored 40+ points. They are 34-0 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets in home games priced as a 24.5 or more-point favorite and scoring 40+ points wince 1989 and are 9-0 SU and 7-2 SATS for 78% winners since 2014 season.
|02-13-22||Rams v. Bengals +4.5||Top||23-20||Win||100||36 h 57 m||Show|
The LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals
5% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points.
I also like. Placing a 1% or one unit. Wager on the Bengals using the money line.
Take advantage of the Super Bowl to Super Bowl special for just $699 that saves you $600 over the regular 365-day subscription. This gives you All Access to Every pick I release in every sports including the 5% (5-Unit MAX Bets).
There is a terrific and highly profitable betting angle or algorithm if you will that has earned a 30-6-1 ATS since 1980. This algorithm has also gone undefeated at 7-0 ATS over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points after posting four consecutive games with a turnover margin off +1 or better and are now facing an opponent coming off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.
Remember too, that is NOT the game to “Go For It” - nor is any game. I am betting my 5% amount and a 1% on the money line and then 0.5% (0.25-units) on the 10 prop bets that follow below. It is a fact that I am 18-5 ATS for 77% winning bets over my career and there were 4 Super Bowls that I did not wager on the side or the total. The thrill of winning is terrific, but the agony of waking up Monday with the thoughts of “why in the world did I do that” is far worse.
The first prop that I like here on the DraftKings sportsbook betting odds board is Cincinnati Bengals total field goal yardage. DraftKings has it lined at over 60.5 yards paying minus 115 vig if you like the under 65 yards you're getting minus 110 vig. I'm taking the over in this prop bet.
The Cincinnati Bengals has an excellent rookie kicker in Evan McPherson who is 5 foot 10 and weighs 195 pounds and played for the University of Florida. In his rookie NFL season, he played in 16 games made 28 of 33 field goal attempts and made 46 of 48 extra point attempts. In road games this season he was spectacular, and the Bengals were 5-2 in those road games. He converted 20 of 21 extra points for 95% and made 100% going 14 for 14 in field goal attempts. In the seven road games he accounted for 62 points.
From long range, those field goals of 50 or more yards McPherson made 11 of 13 attempts on the season. So, let's see what other prop bets are attractive for this Super Bowl.
McPherson OVER 7.5 pts -135
Mcpherson is lined at 7 1/2 points. Betting the over in the number of points he will be accountable for does cost minus 135 vig but I think he will kick at least two field goals and make two extra points that right there is eight points in total, so I like over 7 1/2 points coming from Evan McPherson of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ja’Marr Chase +900 to score first TD of the game
Another player prop is involving touchdowns scored. I like Ja’Marr Chase wide receiver for Cincinnati at plus 900 to be the first player to score a touchdown. I also like him at plus 900 to score the last touchdown of the game. Odell Beckham, Jr. is a wide receiver and one of the many weapons on the Rams offense. He is lined at plus 600 to be the first scorer of a touchdown by the Rams offense.
Game Alternative Line Prop Bets
Kupp and Higgins anytime TD + under 54.5 points +725
Kupp, Chase, Mixon, and Beckham, Jr. All score anytime TD +1250
Joe Mixon Rushing yards greater than the 4th Round score of the Winner of PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open Event –110
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bengals to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer number of turnovers. In past games over the last three seasons, the Bengals are 16-3 ATS for 84.2% winning bets and when they have been the dog they are 8-2 SU, 10-0 ATS for 100% winners. Good Luck and TY for a terrific season on the NCAAF + NFL gridiron.