College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

John Ryan Football Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-13-24	Falcons v. Panthers +6		38-20	Loss	-108	51 h 13 m	Show
Falcons vs Panthers 4:25 ET \| FOX \| Bank of America Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 6-point home underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-32 SU (40%) and 35-16-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. The dog is outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half. If our dog is outscored by double-digits in the first half of action they have gone 8-12 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-13-24	Commanders +6.5 v. Ravens	Top	23-30	Loss	-100	48 h 49 m	Show
Commanders vs Ravens 1 EWT \| CBS \| M&T Bank Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 6.5-point underdogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7.5 units preflop and then look for the Ravens to score a TD first or two fields to take a 6-0 or greater lead or for the Ravens to retake the led during the first half and then add the 2.5 units using the spread. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 13-22 (38%) straight-up and 25-8-2 ATS for 76% over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on. Underdogs in a non-divisional matchup. The favorite has gained 450 or mor yards in each of their previous three games. The favorite has averaged 6 or more yards per play for the season. If our team is on the road, they have gone an incredible 8-13 SU and 15-4-2 ATS for 79% winning bets. From my predictive model: The projections call for the Commanders to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and gain at least 5.7 yards per play. In past home games in which the Ravens allowed these performance measures has seen them go just 7-9 SU and 3-12-1 ATS for 20% winning bets.
10-13-24	Colts +3 v. Titans	Top	20-17	Win	100	48 h 48 m	Show
Colts vs Titans 1 ET \| CBS \| Nissan Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Colts priced as 3-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-25 SU (47%) and 29-16-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 1 and 5.5 points. The dog had no more than one turnover in their previous game. The host is coming off a non-divisional game. The game is a divisional showdown. The road team has defeated the home team in each of their last two meetings. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 30-33 SU (47%) and 41-20-2 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 2 and 7.5 points. The dog has passed for 7 or more yards per pass attempt in each of their last two games. The opponent’s defense held their previous opponent to 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt.
10-12-24	Texas -14.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	34-3	Win	100	26 h 24 m	Show
1 Texas vs 18 Oklahoma 3:30 ET \| ABC \| Cotton Bowl 8-Unit Bet on the Texas Longhorns The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 75-14 SU (84%) and 59-28-2 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a ranked favorite. The opponent is also ranked. The site is either at home or on a neutral field. The game occurs from week 4 on out to the end of the regular season. If the favorite is ranked better than the foe by 5 or more positions in the poll (Texas ranked 1 and Oklahoma ranked 18 is 17 positions better) they have gone 36-2 SU (95%) and 27-11 ATS (71%) over the past 10 seasons. The decisive factor is that if the favorite lost to their rival in the previous season they bounce back with a huge 11-0 record and 10-1 ATS good for 91% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-12-24	South Carolina v. Alabama -21.5	Top	25-27	Loss	-109	23 h 51 m	Show
South Carolina vs Alabama Noon ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Alabama priced as a 21.5-point favorite. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 36-2 SU (95%) and 28-9-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has gone 21-2 SU (91%) and 18-4-1 ATS good for 82% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites facing a conference foe. The favorite gas seen their last three games play Over the total by 24 or more points. The favorite has won 80% or more of their games. The opponent has a winning record.
10-11-24	Northwestern +11.5 v. Maryland	Top	37-10	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
Northwestern vs Maryland 8 ET, Friday, October 7, 2024 \| 8-Unit bet on the Northwestern priced as a 10-point underdog. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 31-55 SU (95%) and 58-27-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs of 4.5 to 11.5 points in weeks 5 through 9. The dog is coming off two consecutive losses by double-digits to conference foes. They are facing a conference foe in the current matchup. If our dog has a losing record in the current season, they have gone 28-46 SU (38%) and 51-22-1 ATS (70%) winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-09-24	New Mexico State v. Jacksonville State -20.5	Top	13-54	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State 7:30 ET, Wednesday \| ESPN2 8-Unit bet on Jax State priced as 20.5-point favorites. The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 28-3 SU (90%) and 21-9 ATS good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has a yards per game differential between –50 and 50 yards per game. The opponent has won 25% or fewer of their games. The opponent has been outgained by an average of 100 or more YPG. Our team is coming off two consecutive games gaining 475 or more total yards in each one. This game is taking place at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida and weather conditions will be potentially very bad and because of Hurricane Milton closing in on the Tampa Bay and Sarasota area this game could be cancelled. Safety is first, with this historic and catastrophic hurricane cutting an 800-mile slice across the middle of the state. JAX State ranks 22nd nationally averaging 204 rushing yards per game and will dominate a NMST defense that ranks 133rd nationally allowing an average of 277 rushing yards per game. So, no matter how bad the weather conditions are tonight, there is just no feasible way that the JAX State ground attack will be contained.
10-07-24	Saints v. Chiefs -5	Top	13-26	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
Saints vs Chiefs 8:15 ET \| ESPN/ABC 8-Unit Bet on the Chiefs priced as 5-point favorites. Monday Night Football undefeated teams have produced an exceptional record over many years. In fact, undefeated teams facing a non-divisional foe that are playing under the bright lights of MNF have gone 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets since 1989. A slight variation of that theme creates one hihgly profitable betting algorithm supporting the Chiefs and has gone 53-14 SU (79%) and 47-16-4 ATS (75%) record over the past 25 seasons. Bet home teams playing on MNF. They have a winning percentage of 80 or better. Taking on a foe with a winning record or at 0.500 If the host has a perfect record, they have gone 36-10 SU and 33-11-2 ATS good for 75% winning bets. If our host pushed or covered the spread in their previousgame has produced an even better 31-6 SU and 29-7-1 ATS record good for 81% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.
10-06-24	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers	Top	24-23	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
Cardinals vs 49ers 4:05 ET \| Levis Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals +7 points. 2-Units Under 28.5 points for the 49ers team total (Optional) If you do bet the 2-Unit Under total, then reduce the play on the Cardinals to 6-Units. The Cardinals are 1-3 on the season and are in dire need of a win to remain on the perimeter of the playoff contenders. This desperation is reflected in the data as 1-3 teams playing in week 5 that are coming off a loss and an ATS loss facing a divisional foe have gone 25-14 SU and 25-14 ATS since 1990. If our team is priced between pick and a 9.5-point underdog they have gone 11-9 SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 28-22 SU (56%) and 31-17-2 ATS (65%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team coming off an upset loss at home. They lost to the spread by double-digits in that loss. Their QB pressures percentage was 10% less than the opponent in that loss. The Cardinals had a 3.3% quarterback pressure percentage, and no team can win at the NFL level with such an anemic pass rush. The 10-UNIT game of the Month was last week and won by 31.5 points as the Commanders destroyed the Cardinals and the game got away from them early. So, the lack of pass rush was more impacted by the blowout scoring than anything else, noting the Cardinals did not blitz on one single play. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 10-9-1 SU (53%) and 16-4 ATS (80%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that lost every game against their divisional foes last season. They are facing a divisional foe. The game occurs in the first nine weeks (first half) of the NFL schedule.
10-06-24	Bills +1 v. Texans	Top	20-23	Loss	-107	3 h 16 m	Show
Bills vs Texans 1 ET \| NRG Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Bills priced as a 1-point dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-9 SU (70%) and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams facing a non-divisional foe. The road team is coming off a road loss priced as a dog. The road team allowed 10 or more points than their season average in their last game. The road team is priced between a 2.5-point dog and favorite. If our road is the dog and priced below 10 points and they are coming off a double-digit ATS loss they have gone 32-36 SU and 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1989.
10-05-24	West Virginia +3 v. Oklahoma State		38-14	Win	100	27 h 48 m	Show
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State 4 ET \| ESPN2 \| Boone Pickens Stadium 8-Unit bet on WVU priced as 3-point road underdogs. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 28-11 SU and 24-15 ATS for 62% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs of 3 or more points facing a ranked conference opponent. The road team is not ranked. The road team is playing one of their first five games of the season. Our road team has two or more losses.
10-05-24	Ole Miss -8.5 v. South Carolina		27-3	Win	100	26 h 19 m	Show
12 Mississippi vs South Carolina 3:30 ET \| Saturday, October 5 \| Williams-Brice Stadium 8-Unit Bet on Mississippi priced as a 9-point favorite. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 28-11 SU and 24-15 ATS for 62% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: Bet on a team coming off a loss. There were 6 or more lead changes i their previous game. The loss was their first one of the season. They are ranked in the top 25 AP poll. If the game has a total of 60 or fewer points, they have gone 19-5 SU (79%) and 16-8 ATS for 67% winners.
10-05-24	Missouri v. Texas A&M -2		10-41	Win	100	23 h 49 m	Show
9 Missouri vs 25 Texas A&M Noon ET ABC \| Kyle Field, College Station, TX 8-Unit Best bet on Texas A&M priced as 2.5-point home favorites. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 26-7 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets. The requirements are: Both teams ranked in the top 25. The site is at home or neutral. Games occur in the regular season. The team we are betting on is ranked worse than the foe in the poll. Our team is priced between a 2.5 and 17.5-point favorite. The total is between 45 and 50 points.
10-05-24	Army -12.5 v. Tulsa		49-7	Win	100	23 h 47 m	Show
Army vs Tulsa Noon ET \| ESPNU Chapman Stadium 8-Unit bet on Army priced as 12.5-point favorites. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 152-47 SU and 128-68-2 ATS for 65% wining bets since 2010. The requirements are: Bet on any team that has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. They are playing on the road. They are coming off a win. The opponent lost their last game by 17 or more points. Drilling down a bit deeper into the database we learn that if these teams are priced as double-digit favorites, and the total is 55 or fewer points has seen them soar to a highly profitable 42-3 SU (93%) and 34-11 ATS (76%) since 2010.
10-05-24	Navy v. Air Force +10	Top	34-7	Loss	-109	23 h 47 m	Show
Navy vs Air Force Noon ET \| CBS/Paramount+ Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy 10-Unit bet on the Falcons priced as 9.5-point underdogs. Live Betting optional Strategy: The Under in the Armed Forces games has gone 86-20-2 for 81% winning bets since 2006 and every season has posted a profit. There will be a season where the Over will win the money, but until that happens there is no reason to consider the Over bet and there is just not a number low enough to get me off of playing the Under in these matchups. So, if this game somehow gets off to a faster than expected start and you see the total priced at 42 or more points bet no more than a 5-unit amount on the Under. The last time these matchups exceeded 40 points in total was back in the COVID pandemic when Navy and Air Force combined for 47 points on October 13, 2020. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 18-22 SU and 27-10-3 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on home dogs priced between 4.5 and 10 points. The dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game. The opponent is coming off two straight games where they had fewer turnovers than their opponents. If our favorite is undefeated on the season, these home pups become quite fierce posting a 9-11 SU record and a 15-4-1 ATS mark for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model: We will be looking for the Air Force to have the same or fewer turnovers and to gain 275 or more rushing yards. In past games in which AF met or exceeded these projections has seen them go 70-12 SU and 57-24-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. If they commit 2 or fewer turnovers, they have gone 68-12 SU and 56-23-1 ATS good for 71% winning bets. If they hold their foes to 15 or more offensive yards-per-point ratio they have gone 56-3 SU and 43-16 ATS for 73% winning bets.
10-03-24	Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons	Top	30-36	Loss	-105	5 h 14 m	Show
Bucs vs Falcons 8:15 ET \| Prime Video \| Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bucs priced as 2-point underdogs. The following betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 24-22 SU (52%) \| 30-15-1 ATS (67%). Bet on dogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The favorite had at least one turnover in their previous game. The game is a divisional showdown. The previous matchup our dog won and converted first downs on 20% or more of their plays The Falcons are 18-37 SU (33%) and 19-36 ATS (35%) when playing on 6 or fewer days of rest; 10-16 SU and 6-20 ATS (23%) when playing at home; 7-7 SU (50%) and 2-12 ATS (14%) when priced as a home favorite. From the Predictive Models: The Bucs offense is expected to gain 350 or more total yards and win the turnover battle. In past games since 2020, the Bucs are 18-1 SU (95%) and 15-4 ATS (79%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.
09-30-24	Titans +2.5 v. Dolphins	Top	31-12	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
Titans vs Dolphins MNF 7:30 ESPN \| Hard Rock Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Titans priced as 1-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Play on road teams that are winless on the season. The game occurs between weeks 3 and 6. The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 22-36 SU (38%) and 34-21-3 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-48 SU (34%) and 53-18-2 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs including pick-em. They are a struggling offense gaining an average of 265 or fewer yards per game. The game occurs from week 4 on to the end of the regular season. The host has a defense that allows between 265 and 295 yards per game. If the game is a non-divisional matchup our dogs have gone 12-27 SU (31) but an impressive 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets since 1989. Player Props for 1-Unit Tyjae Spears Over 28.5 rushing and receiving yards. De’Von Achane Under 96.5 rushing and receiving yards. Kenneth Walker Over 67.5 rushing and receiving yards.
09-29-24	Chiefs v. Chargers +7.5	Top	17-10	Win	100	29 h 40 m	Show
Chiefs vs Chargers. 4:25 ET \| CBS \| SoFi Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Chargers priced as 7.5-point underdogs The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-23 SU (47%) and a 31-12 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs facing a divisional foe. The dog is coming off a non-division game. The dog lost their previous game by 7 or more points. The dog had 19 or fewer first downs in their previous games.
09-29-24	Commanders +3.5 v. Cardinals	Top	42-14	Win	100	28 h 21 m	Show
Commanders vs Cardinals 4:05 ET \| State Farm Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 3.5-point dogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7.5-units preflop on the Commanders and then look to add 2.5-more units if Arizona takes a 6- or 7-point lead or retakes the lead in the first half of action. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 51-76 SU (40%) and 86-38-4 ATS record good for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. That dog allows 28 or more points per game. If the game is a conference matchup our road dog has gone 36-55 SUI (40%) and 65-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 28-28 SU (50%) and 40-15-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The host posted a losing record in the previous season. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. The road team averaged fewer passing yards than the current opponent in the previous season. The host was not in the playoffs last season. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-13 SU (61%) and a 23-9-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs. The host won 40% or fewer of their games in the previous season. The game occurs in weeks 2 through 4. The home team is coming off a loss. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-33 SU (45%) and a 39-20-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on conference dogs. The dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points. The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe. The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog.
09-29-24	Patriots +11 v. 49ers	Top	13-30	Loss	-110	28 h 19 m	Show
Patriots vs 49ers 4:05 ET \| Levis Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as 10.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-47 SU (45%) and a 53-25 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs. The dog is coming off a game with three or more failed third down attempts than their opponent. The dog gained less than 400 total yards of offense. The dog was priced as the dog in their previous game. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 54-53 SU (51%) and a 67-37-3 ATS record good for 665% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season. The opponent is coming off a road loss.
09-29-24	Eagles -1 v. Bucs		16-33	Loss	-108	25 h 24 m	Show
Eagles vs Bucs 1:00 ET \| Raymond James Stadium \| FOX 5-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles favored by 1.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-9 SU (74%) and 22-10-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won as a road underdog in their previous game. That team outgained their previous foe by 225 or more yards. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 43-39 SU (52%) and 50-30-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point underdog. The road team defeated the current opponent in their previous game. The road team is coming off a road game. The home team is coming off a home game. The Eagles are without their two top WR but they also were without them last week for the second half of action when they mounted their come from behind win despite their head coach trying to lock in the loss with ridiculous calls on 4th down. Look for Dotson to get more targets in this matchup and for Barkley to continue gashing defensive lines with his power running. The Eagles defense led by Jalen Carter last week played very well and that will carry over to this game too. From the predictive model: My predictive models are calling for the Eagles to win the turnover battle and gain at least 125 rushing yards and have more rushing yards than the Bucs. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to an 18-3 SU (86%) and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. 10-UNIT College Game of the Month goes Saturday night and Ryan's NFL 10-UNIT game of the month goes Sunday 3-0 with 10-Unit games of the month and 68% ATS over the past 5 seasons.
09-29-24	Jaguars +6 v. Texans	Top	20-24	Win	100	25 h 15 m	Show
Jaguars vs Texans 1 ET \| CBS \| NRG Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Jaguars priced as 6-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on winless road teams between weeks 3 and 6. They are priced between pick-em and 7,5-point dog. The dog lost their last game by double digits.
09-28-24	Georgia +1 v. Alabama	Top	34-41	Loss	-115	29 h 57 m	Show
Georgia vs Alabama 7:30 ET, September 28 Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, ALA 8-Unit bet on Georgia using the money line if they are priced as a favorite to 2.5 points. Currently priced as one-point favorites. It is doubtful Georgia will be priced as an underdog but if they are then grab the points instead of the money line. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-10 SU (79%) and a 30-18 ATS (63%) since 1980. The requirements are: It is game number four. Our team is coming off a BYE. Our team is favored or priced at pick-em. The opponent is coming off a win. Our team lost their last meeting with the current opponent. If our team is priced between the 3’s (3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog they improve to a 27-11 SU (71%) and a 27-9-2 ATS record goods for 75% winning bets since 1980.
09-28-24	Illinois v. Penn State -17.5	Top	7-21	Loss	-110	29 h 51 m	Show
Illinois vs Penn State 7:30 ET \| NBC Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA 10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 17.5 points. Two ranked conference rivals and the home team is favored by almost 20 points. So, the market is clearly telling us who the better team is and by nearly three TDs better. No. 19 Illinois travels to Happy Valley to take on No. 8 Penn State in a game set to start at 7:30 and white-out conditions. That’s not snow conditions, of course, but the 112,000 fans in attendance, who have been tailgating all day. It has been estimated that there are more people in the fields surrounding the Stadium than in the Stadium once the game starts. It is truly a remarkable venue to experience when it is a white-out or a stripe-out occasion. Penn State is coming off a BYE week and this is certainly great news for them as under head coach James Franklin they are 21-6 SU and ATS when the game is in the prime-time schedule. The clincher here is that when PSU has been favored in these situations, they have gone 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points per game. The following betting algorithm has gone 45-1 SU (98%) and 30-15-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. Bet conference favorites of 17.5 or more points. That favorite is ranked in the top-10 of the latest AP poll. The foe is ranked between 11 and 25 in the most recent AP poll. If the game occurs from week 5 to the end of the season, these favorites have gone 42-1 SU (98%) and 29-14 ATS for 69% winning bets. From the predictive model: My predictive models are expecting Penn State to score 31 or more points and hold Illinois to fewer than 300 offensive yards. In past home games under James Franklin, the Lions are 22-0 SU and 17-3-2 ATS for 85% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. Illinois is 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS when gaining less than 300 total yards in a road game and allowing 31 or more points.
09-28-24	Navy v. UAB +3.5		41-18	Loss	-105	21 h 17 m	Show
Navy at UAB Noon ET \| ESPN2 Pretective Stadium, Birmingham, AL 8-Unit Bet on UAB priced as a 3.5-point underdog. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 35-14-3 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The underdog committed no more than one turnover in their previous game. The opponent has won the turnover battle in each of their last two games. If the foe has a winning record in the current seasons these home pups have gone 15-26 SU (37%) and 28-10-3 ATS (74%) winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is playing a ranked foe, they are a highly profitable 15-5 SU and 15-4-1 ATS good for 79% winning bets.
09-28-24	Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas State	Top	20-42	Loss	-110	1 h 34 m	Show
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Noon \| ESPN Bill Snyder Family Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Cowboys priced as 5.5-point underdogs and a sprinkle on the money line. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-31 SU (45%) and 45-24 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 2.5 and 6.5 points. The game is a conference matchup. The game occurs from week 5 to the end of the regular season. The road team is playing with revenge. The bettor consensus for this game is on K-State all week but when the line hit 5.5 last night and with the number of tickets bet at 72% and rising and the handle at 58% and dropping is one of many reasons I have added this game to the card.
09-27-24	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -19	Top	34-38	Loss	-110	51 h 57 m	Show
V-Tech vs Miami (Fla) 7:30 ET \| ESPN \| Friday 8-Unit bet on Miami priced as 19.5-point favorites. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 31-16 SU (66%) and 30-16-1 for 65% winning bets since 2010 or 15 seasons. Bet on undefeated teams from week 4 on out. They are averaging 4.8 or more rushing yards per attempt. They outgained their previous foe by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The total is 55 or fewer points. If a conference matchup these teams have gone 24-10 SU and 23-11 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010 and if our team is a double-digit favorite, they have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive model: My models are projecting that Miami will score 35 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as V-Tech. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone 37-0 DSU and 32-5 ATS good for 87% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.
09-26-24	Cowboys v. Giants +5.5	Top	20-15	Win	100	7 h 46 m	Show
Cowboys vs Giants 8:15 ET 8-Unit bet on the Giants priced as 6-point home dogs and a little sprinkle on the money line. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-28 SU (47%) and a 37-16 ATS (70%) record over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs from week 4 on out. The dog has allowed a 64% opponent completion percentage. The dog is coming off a strong defensive game allowing 5.5 PYPA If our dog is coming off a road win, they soar to 12-5 ATS record for 71% winning bets. From the predictive model: The projections are calling for the Giants to have the same or fewer turnovers and average 4,7 yards per rush attempt. In past games which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 9-6 SU and 13-1-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons.
09-23-24	Commanders +7.5 v. Bengals	Top	38-33	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
Commanders vs Bengals 8:15 ET \| ABC/ESPN+ Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 7-point underdogs. Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on underdogs priced between 4.5 and 8 points. Non divisional matchup. Game occurs in Week 3 through Week 5. The favorite is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. The dog is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. Betting consensus is on the Bengals accounting for 77% of tickets bet and is the most popular pick in the Circa Eliminator contest for the second time in three weeks. Their loss to the Patriots in week 1 (we were on the Patriots) eliminated 36% of the 12,800 entries. So, for many reasons, I do see this game being a lot closer than most believe possible. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 46-44 SU (51%) and 57-30-3 ATS (66%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. That dog has posted a mediocre 15 or higher yards-per-point ratio. The game occurs in the first half of the season through week 9. The favorite is coming off a road loss and is on a one or more-game losing streak. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Commanders to establish the run and gain 125 or more rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in previousgames, they have gone 12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets.
09-23-24	Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills	Top	10-47	Loss	-108	5 h 2 m	Show
Jaguars vs Bills (Monday) Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY 7:30 ET \| ESPN \| Week 3 8-Unit bet on the Jaguars +5 points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line. Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Winless teams priced as 5.5 or greater underdogs are 11-22-1 SU but 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 22-35 SU and 34-20-3 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion and a QB rating of 95 or worse. The road team is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. Here is the third sports betting algorithm targeting a bet on the Jaguars and has gone 20-17 SU and 23-12-2 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on underdogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. The dog went Under their team points total. If our dog is on the road, they have gone 14-11 SU and 16-8-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Jaguars to gain 5.25 or more yards per play and commit the same or fewer turnovers. In past road games in which the Jaguars met these performance measures has seen them produce a highly profitable 31-25 SU and 38-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets.
09-22-24	Dolphins +4 v. Seahawks	Top	3-24	Loss	-108	5 h 55 m	Show
Dolphins vs Seahawks 4:05 ET \| CBS Lumen Field 8-Unit Bet on the Dolphins priced as 4.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-34 SU (38%) and 37-17-1 ATS (69%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. This dog is coming off a double-digit home loss. Dog had a –2 or worse turnover margin in their previous game.
09-22-24	Eagles +3 v. Saints	Top	15-12	Win	100	2 h 51 m	Show
Philadelphia vs New Orleans 1:00 \| FOX 8-unit bet on the Eagles priced as 3-point underdogs. Consider betting 5-Units on the Eagles preflop and then add the remaining three units if the Saints score first with a TD or a pair of FGs or they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action. Should the Eagles Play Without the Coaching Staff? For Eagles fans #FlyEaglesFly was crash and burn Eagles as the coaching staff clearly led them down the path to lose that Monday Night game against the Falcons. The dropped pass by Saquon Barkley inside of two-minutes was not the reason they lost the game, but rather going for it on fourth down inside the five-yard line in 3-0 game in the second quarter. Further, the decision to pass the ball to Barkley was the wrong call and better to have run the ball in that situation to keep the clock moving knowing the Falcons were out of timeouts. Now, the Eagles are facing one of the hottest teams and offenses in the Saints priced as 3.5-point underdogs. Reyling on Analytics Alone is a Sure-Fire way to Get Fired On the telecast it was noted that the analytics said to go for it on 4th down and four yards to go with the Eagles in the red zone. There is not one meaningful stat that would state that when the game is being played in the mud – meaning that points were scarce and hard-to-get. The analytics are flawed because they do not reflect the game flow. If the defenses could not stop the other’s offense, then yes, the analytics are more likely to say GO because field goals do little to increase a lead or diminish a deficit on the scoreboard. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-33 SU (52%) and 42-20-6 ATS (68%) winning bets. Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 6 points. The dog went Under their team total in the previous game. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. From the predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as the Saints. In past road games over the past 5 seasons, the Eagles are 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Here is a second algorithm that has produced an 11-8 SU record and a 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on underdogs from pick to 6.5 points in the first four weeks of the season. The opponent has won their last two games. The opponent was not in last season’s playoffs. So, I am certainly expecting a bounce-back effort today by the Eagles, especially on defense in defending the run and getting many QB pressures and hits today. The offense will take care of itself.
09-21-24	Kansas State v. BYU +7	Top	9-38	Win	100	15 h 23 m	Show
Kansas State vs BYU 10:30 EST 8-Unit Bet on BYU +6.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Bet on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The hoe dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game.
09-21-24	Tennessee -6.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	25-15	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
Tennessee vs Oklahoma 7:30 ET, Saturday September 21 8-Unit Bet on Tennessee –6.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 15-23 SU record for 40% and a 24-14 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The favorite is coming off a game in which they scored 60 or more points. The favorite held their previous opponent to 14 or fewer points.
09-21-24	Arizona State +3.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	22-30	Loss	-105	8 h 23 m	Show
Arizona State vs Texas Tech 3:30 ET 8-Unit bet on ASU priced as a 3.5-point underdog. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane Noon EST 8-Unit bet on the LLAF plus 1.5 points. The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG.
09-21-24	Tulane v. UL-Lafayette +1.5	Top	41-33	Loss	-109	5 h 52 m	Show
Arizona State vs Texas Tech 3:30 ET 8-Unit bet on ASU priced as a 3.5-point underdog. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane Noon EST 8-Unit bet on the LLAF plus 1.5 points. The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG.
09-19-24	Patriots +6.5 v. Jets	Top	3-24	Loss	-105	7 h 49 m	Show
Patriots vs Jets 8:20 ET \| Amazon MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 8-Unit Bet on the Patriots +6 points. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to add 30% of that 8-Unit amount if the Jets score first or they retake the lead in the first half only. If the Patriots get out to a fast start there probably will not be an opportunity to get on the 30% remaining bet, but that also implies the Patriots are comfortably covering the spread. The Patriots offensive line is a mishmash of players given they have players OUT or listed as questionable across the line. So, by betting 70% preflop is a hedge against that offensive line just not getting it done. The market with the Patriots priced at 6 points and has dropped from 6.5 points despite the terrible injury reports regard their offensive line. Just like the price of Apple Computer reflects all expectations about their future earnings, the sports betting market reflects the expectations and news reports of both teams. The NFL Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 74-86 record good for 54% SU winners and a 99-59-2 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and ALL 10 seasons have produced profits. The requirements are: The game occurs i the first four weeks of the season. Bet on road underdogs. The host had a losing record in the previous season. Simple to understand and straightforward results. Filtering this algorithm to reflect weeks 2 through 4 and the host having won less than 40% of their games in the previous season has produced a 19-13 SU mark (60%) and a 22-9-1 ATS record goof for 71% winning bets.
09-19-24	South Alabama +7.5 v. Appalachian State	Top	48-14	Win	100	6 h 6 m	Show
South Alabama vs Appalachian State 7:30 ET 8-Unit bet on South Alabama plus the 7 points. The predictive model sees South Alabama getting out to a fast start in this game so betting 4-Units on them +3.5 or 3-points for the first half and then 4-Unit on them +7 points for the full game is an alternative strategy to consider betting. Betting on underdogs between 2 and 6 points using the first half line that are outgaining their foes by 1.0 or more yards per play and are coming off a game in which they gained 475 or more yards have gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. The College Football Betting Algorithm The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 59-29 record and a 56-31 ATS mark good for 64.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that are gaining 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempt. That team outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The team is coming off a game in which they scored 50 or more points. If our team is an underdog of any size, they have gone 8-14 SU but 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. The South Alabama Jaguars have a new coach in Major Applewhite, who had just four offensive and three defensive starters returning but he has the new starters playing quite well and why not he was their OC last year. Since joining the FBS in 2012 they stopped 10 consecutive losing seasons and had the second biggest bowl victory (59-10 over Eastern Michigan).
09-16-24	Falcons +5.5 v. Eagles	Top	22-21	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
Falcons vs Eagles 8:20 ET \| Lincoln Financial Field 8-Unit bet on the Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting In last week’s upset home loss to the the now 2-0 AFC Central division-leading Steelers (remember my recommendation to bet the Steelers to win the divisional title at 38:1?) they were able to put pressure on Cousins on 34% of the downs played. The Falcons defense managed to attain just 17.4% QB pressure on the Steeler signal caller. Check out the fourth betting algorithm below for more. Situational Trends and Angles: Dogs in Week 2 that are coming off a Week 1 loss priced as a favorite have gone 38-50 SU (43%) and 53-33-2 ATS good for 62% wining bets since 1989. In weeks 2 and 3, dogs in a non-divisional fray coming off a loss priced as a favorite and lost to the spread by double digits in their previous game have gone a solid 17-24 SU and 26-14-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1989. Every franchise knows that getting out of the gate with a 0-2 SU record means that they have an 11.5% chance of making it to the playoffs. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site are 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS for 36% including a highly profitable 10-4 Over record for 71.4% winning bets. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site and were a playoff team in the previous season are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS for 27% winners. Home favorite of 4.5 or more points coming off a neutral site game are 7-1 SU but just 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. The Monday Night NFL Betting Algorithm: This group of parameters has produced a 20-30 SU record and a 32-14-4 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. That dog is coming off a loss in which they committed three or more turnovers. That dog played Under their team total in that loss. The total is priced between 45 and 50 points. Here is a second NFL betting algorithm that has gone 21-34 SU (38%) and 33-19-3 ATS (64%) over the past 25 seasons. Bet on a road dog. That dog is coming off a poor game where their QB posted a 95 or lower quarterback rating. That dog is coming off an upset loss at home. In that loss their receivers achieved just four to seven yards after the catch. Here is a third NFL betting algorithm that has gone 16-22 SU and 25-13 ATS for 65.8% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road dogs of 3.5 to 6.5 points. That road dog is coming off an upset home loss. That dog converted 20 to 30% of their third down opportunities. The game is a non-divisional matchup. Here is another NFL betting algorithm that has gone 15-14 SU and 18-10-1 for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road teams coming off an upset home loss. They had at least one turnover in that loss. The opponent in that loss had 15% or more QB pressures in that loss. If our road team had at least three turnovers in their previous upset home loss they have gone an amazing 6-5 SU and 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets.
09-15-24	Giants +1.5 v. Commanders	Top	18-21	Loss	-105	3 h 36 m	Show
Giants vs Commanders 1:00 ET \| FOX \| Northwest Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Giants priced as 1.5-point dogs. In this situational betting angle specific to week 2 we learn that all dogs in week 2 that failed to cover the spread in week 1 and their current opponent failed to cover the spread in week 1 have gone 18-21 SU and 25-12-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if the dog’s margin to the spread in week 1 was the same as or worse than their opponent’s ats margin, our dogs have gone 13-9 SU and 19-2-1 ATS for a highly profitable 91% record. This situational betting algorithm has gone 49-55-1 SU, 64-34-7 ATS (65.3%) since 1989. Bet on road underdogs including pick-em and up to 5.5 points. The game is scheduled in the first three weeks of the regular season. This dog won six or fewer games in the previous season. The total is between 40 and 50 points. If these teams won between four and six games in the previous season. 37-37 SU (50%), 50-18-6 ATS (73.5%) winning bets since 1989; 14-4 SU (78%), 16-1-1 ATS (94%) winning bets since 2019. This NFL betting algorithm has produced a 37-33 SU and 45-21-4 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 1989. Bet on road dogs taking on a divisional foe. That host was outscored by four or more points-per-game in the previous season. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-18 SU and 27-13-3 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The game occurs in the first eight weeks of the season. Bet on road underdogs of three or fewer points including pick-em The favorite is on a 1 or more-game losing streak. From the Predictive Model: We learn that the Giants are 61-16 SU (79%) and 65-10-2 ATS when they have scored 21 or more points, recorded 10 passing first downs and had the same or fewer turnovers; 5-3 SU and 8-0 ATS over the past five seasons.
09-15-24	Raiders +9 v. Ravens	Top	26-23	Win	100	3 h 36 m	Show
Raiders vs Ravens 1 ET \| CBS \| M&T Bank Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Raiders priced as 8-point underdogs and sprinkle the money line. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 17-22 SU record and 25-12-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. In Week 2 action bet on the underdogs. Both teams failed to cover the spread in their previous game. If the opponent was a playoff team in the previous season our dogs have ripped off a highly profitable 7-8 SU record and an 11-3-1 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets pver the past 10 seasons. There has always been the discussion and misconception that west coast teams struggle when having to travel to play a game on the east coast with an early start time at 1;00 ET. There are three west coast travelers in Week 2 (Raiders, Seahawks, and Chargers). Since 1999, these west coast teams taking on an east coast host have gone 52-39 SU (57%) and 51-36-4 ATS (59%). Over the past five seasons they have produced a 40-23 SU (64%) record and 28-23-2 ATS (62.3%) and 5-8 SU and 9-4 ATS (69%) when priced as a dog of 4 or more points. The Ravens are the most popular pick in the Circa Eliminator contest with 2,304 picks of the remaining 8,694 entries or 26.4%. Last week we bet the Patriost as +9 point dogs adn they took down the Bengals, who were the most popular pick in the Eliminator and with the loss eliminated 34% of the 12,000 entries. Can it happen again? We will see. From the Predictive Model: We learn that the Raiders are 12-5 SU (71%) and 14-3 ATS when they have scored 20 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in road games over the past five seasons.
09-15-24	Browns +3.5 v. Jaguars	Top	18-13	Win	100	2 h 26 m	Show
Browns vs Jaguars 1 ET \| CBS \| Everbank Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3-point underdogs. This NFL betting algorithm has produced a 26-39 SU and 44-20-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This algorithm has posted one unprofitable season of the previous 10 in 2019 when it went 5-6 ATS. So, this is a great one to track and bet for many seasons to come. Bet on underdogs off a double-0digit home loss. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season.
09-14-24	Georgia -22 v. Kentucky	Top	13-12	Loss	-110	29 h 12 m	Show
1 Georgia vs Kentucky 7:30 ET ABC/ESPN+ Korger Field, Lexington, KY 8-Unit Bet on the Georgia Bulldogs minus 24 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 158-52 straight-up (SU) and 136-72-2 against the spread (ATS) for 65.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams. The road team has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The opponent is coming off a 17 or more-point loss. If the game is a conference showdown and the road team is favored by double-digits they have gone on post a 72-6 SU and 53-25 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and a highly profitable 44-4 SU and 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and not a single season that has not been profitable. I do not like laying this amount of chalk with any road team, but we are talking about the best team in the nation and the best program in college football for the past five seasons. Here is a second simple to understand betting algorithm that has gone 57-23 ATS for 71% winning bets and a highly profitable 40% ROI since 2020. The requirements are: The team has the same quarterback from the previous season. The opponent has a new quarterback this season. The team has allowed fewer than 200 yards in each of their last two games. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Georgia will score 35 or more points, will have the same or fewer turnovers as Kentucky, and will rush the ball more times than they pass. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Georgia is 38-0 SU and 24-13-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points; they are 18-0 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points, posting more rushes than passes and having the same or fewer turnovers.
09-14-24	Boston College v. Missouri -14.5	Top	21-27	Loss	-105	4 h 7 m	Show
Boston College vs Missouri 12:45 ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Missouri currently priced as a 14.5-point favorite. Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 180-40 SU and 126-88-6 ATS record for 59% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home or neutral site favorites of three or more points. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25. The game is part of the regular season. If the guest has covered the spread by 25 or more points over their last two games (Exceeded market expectations significantly) our home favorite has gone 28-3 SU and 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has nine returning starters including his quarterback. Last season they played 11 teams that played in a bowl game, and they defeated 10 of those foes. Their offense has sputtered in the first two weeks but having a BC squad that has shocked two opponents will get their full attention. Keep an eye on WR Luther Burden III, who is fast becoming a first round draft pick and future NFL superstar. If there are any prop bets for him in today’s game the OVER with some pizza money is in order. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is expecting Missouri to score 31 or more points and/or gain at least 1.1 or more yards per play than BC gains. In past games where Missouri met or exceeded this performance measure in home games has seen them go 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
09-14-24	Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +18.5	Top	45-10	Loss	-110	22 h 41 m	Show
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Noon, Saturday, September 14 ESPN2 \| Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK 8-unit bet on Tulsa priced as an 18.5-point underdog. In each of the past 9 consecutive seasons I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 or more points win the game outright and in 2022 I had five of these massive dogs pull off the shocker. No one knows when these monumental upsets will occur. What i do know is that if you play these big barking pups each time and include a sprinkle on the money line you will add a significant amount of profits to your season-long bottom line. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 43-50 straight-up (SU) and 58-33-2 against the spread (ATS) for 64% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against any team coming off a win. That team allowed 600 or more total yards in that win. That team committed fewer turnovers than their previous opponent. If the game has a posted total of 50 or more points and that team above is favored by 11.5 or more points, fading then has produced a 18-7-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Tulsa will score 27 or more points and convert at least 40% of their third down attempts. In past games in which Tulsa met or exceeded these projections has led to a 5-5 SU record and a perfect 10-0 ATS record.
09-13-24	Arizona +7 v. Kansas State	Top	7-31	Loss	-109	7 h 43 m	Show
Arizona vs Kansas State 8:00 ET \| 8-Unit Bet on Arizona currently priced as a 7-point underdog. Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 44-76 SU and 70-47-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. They had a winning record last season (bowl team). They are coming off a win priced as the favorite but failed to cover the spread. The game occurs in the first six weeks of the season. The second betting algorithm supporting Arizona has gone 40-23-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and the requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between pick-em and 9.5 points. They are coming off a win. In that win they failed to cover the spread by not even scoring enough points to exceed how much of a favorite they were in that game. They are facing an undefeated foe. So, Arizona was priced as a 43-point favorite and won the game 22-10. They failed toscore the betting line by 21 points, which is a quite rare result in college football. In fact, there have been just 6 games since 1996 that have seen a team win and failed by 21 points to equal their betting line. Moreover, teams that failed by 21 or more points to equal their betting line have gone 8-11 SU and 0-19 ATS in those games. Following these situations these teams have posted a 10-7 SU record and 10-7 ATS mark. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Arizona will score 28 or more points and will gain 0.75 or more yards-per-play than K-State. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Arizona is 45-23 SU and 42-24-2 ATS fof64% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points; they are 22-7 SU and 19-10 ATS for 65.5% winning bets when they outgained their foes by 0.75 or more yards per play; 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when they have scored 28 or more points and outgained their foes by at least 0.75 yards per play.
09-12-24	Bills +2.5 v. Dolphins	Top	31-10	Win	100	10 h 2 m	Show
Bills vs Dolphins 8:15 ET \| Amazon Prime \| Hard Rock Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Buffalo Bills plus the 2 points. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 6 units on the Bills preflop and then look to get the remaining 2-Units on the Bills if the Dolphins score first and it is a TD or they get out to a 6-0 lead or they retake the lead by any amount during the first half of action. Situational Analytics: The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-19 straight-up (SU) and 31-14-1 against the spread (ATS) record good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 NFL seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs from pick-em to 4.5 points. The game is a divisional showdown. The dog has defeated the opponent in each of their last two meetings. Our dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game. The opponent is coming off a game against a non-divisional foe. Now, if our dog was in the playoffs last season, they have gone 19-6 SU (76%) and 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. In this situational betting angle specific to week 2 we learn that all dogs in week 2 that failed to cover the spread in week 1 and their current opponent failed to cover the spread in week 1 have gone 18-21 SU and 25-12-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if the dog’s margin to the spread in week 1 was the same as or worse than their opponent’s ats margin, our dogs have gone 13-9 SU and 19-2-1 ATS for a highly profitable 91% record. Here is a third situational betting algorithm that has gone 40-15-1 SU and 39-16-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team facing a foe that trailed by double-digits at the half. The opponent did come back and win that home game. If our team has won 75% of more of their games, they have gone on to an impressive 19-0-1 SU record and a 17-2-1 ATS record good for 90% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the Predictive Models: My predictive models are projecting that the Bills will score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers or commit no more than a single turnover and have the edge in time of possession. In past games since 2019, the Bills are 22-3 SU and 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have met or exceeded these performance metrics. The fish are just 2-15 SU and ATS for just 7% winning bets when they have allowed these performance measures in games played over the past five years.
09-09-24	Jets v. 49ers -4	Top	19-32	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
NY Jets vs 49ers 8:15 ET \| ESPN/ABC 8-Unit bet on the 49ers –3.5 points –115 vig. If your book has four points that is acceptable with –110 vig. The 49ers are the Super Bowl losers and the trend to bet against them in Week 1 is outstanding, but all trends run their course and revert to the mean. However, my predictive models confirm that the market has clearly overreacted to this trend and now have the 49ers priced as modest favorites going up against a team that has been a perennial loser and has a 40-year QB that has not thrown a ball in over a year and was coming off the worst season of his career two seasons ago. There have been star names on defense that have left the 49ers, but they still have a great defense that can containalmost anything Aaron Rogers and the offense will throw at them tonight. The Jets have a great defense that is looking to be a Top 5 unit for the fifth consecutive season but one that the 49ers offense can overcome with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Alyuk to name just a few of those offensive weapons. Former Kansas star center Dominick Puni will start for the 49ers as a rookie. He was the third-round draft pick (84th overall) and stands 6-5 and weighs in at 313 pounds and has a high football IQ. I think he has a significant edge in this matchup and will the OL play calls to keep his QB brock Purdy’s jersey as clean as possible tonight. From the Predictive Model: My predictive models are looking for a defensive battle but no graded play on the Under. It projects that the 49ers will score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes and convert a higher percentage of third downs. The 49ers have racked up a 46-1 SU and 38-7-2 ATS record when meeting or exceeding these performance measures over the past five seasons.
09-08-24	Rams +4.5 v. Lions	Top	20-26	Loss	-108	11 h 14 m	Show
Rams vs Lions 8:20 ET, September 8, 2024 Ford Field 10-Unit bet on the Rams +3.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 15-23 SU (40%) and 23-12-3 ATS (66%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs in Week 1. They are facing a host that won two or more games in the previous season than their current wins total. From my predictive models: The models project that the Rams will score 24 or more points, have no more than one turnover, and/or have the edge in time-of possession. IN past games since 1990, the Rams are 91-8 SU (92%) and 86-11-3 ATS (89%) when they have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures; 22-2- SU and 22-0-2 ATS since 2019.
09-08-24	Cowboys v. Browns -2.5	Top	33-17	Loss	-108	7 h 20 m	Show
Browns vs Cowboys 4:25 ET, September 8, 2024 \| FOX 8-Unit Bet on the Browns priced as 2.5-points favorites. Extremely sad news for the passing of Deshaun Watson’s father passing away and his status is uncertain. Family is always a top priority in our lives, and it brings to light what a luxury and privilege it is to have some entertainment and fun watching and betting on sporting events. Watson had spent much of his life estranged from his father, who left the family when he was young and left mother, Deann Watson, to raise him as well as three siblings. In 2017, Watson told the Houston Chronicle that he only remembered seeing his father "maybe five" times while growing up in Gainesville, Georgia. That is perhaps the saddest fact of all, but he still remembered him with a short message from Watson “Rest in Piece Pops”. There are quite a few situations angles and betting algorithms that are working against the Cowboys in this game. The Cowboys were the top scoring offense last season, scoring 30.2 PPG but that has not translated well into the following season. I fact, teams that averaged 30 or more PPG in the previous season are just 23-9 SU and 11-18-3 ATS for 38% in Week 1 action since 1992. If these teams are facing a playoff team from the previous season, they are a miserable 3-7 SUATS for 30% winning bets. The Cowboys were 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in home games last season; they also led the NFl with a very efficient 12.07 yards per point ratio. Only the Eagles were better in-home games posting a 11.41 YPPT ratio with the Cowboys posting an exceptionally strong 11.49 YPPT ratio. Betting on home teams that are priced as favorites in Week 1 and facing a foe that won 9 or more games in the previous season have gone 43-114 SU and 59-89-9 ATS for 40% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If the host was in the playoffs last season, they have gone 40-16 SU and 34-19-3 ATS for 64% winning bets in fading these types of road teams. From my predictive models: My predictive models are looking for the Browns’ defense to play as one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Cowboys are projected to score fewer than 24 points and the Browns to have the ball (Time of Possession) more than the Cowboys. In road games, the Cowboys are just 3-12 SU (20% and 3-12 ATS (20%) when they have scored 24 or fewer points and had the ball for less than 30 minutes in games played over the past five seasons. The Browns are 24-2 SU (92%) and 17-8-1 ATS for (68%) when allowing 24 or fewer points and have the ball for more than 30 minutes in games played over the past five seasons.
09-08-24	Commanders +4 v. Bucs	Top	20-37	Loss	-105	7 h 20 m	Show
Commanders vs Bucs 4:25 ET, September 8, 2024 \| FOX Raymond James Stadium 5-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 3.5-point underdogs. I am fully aware that we have a quarterback making his NFL debut and that the history of first timers has not been good. However, Daniels is ready for this moment and this season, and the Commanders defense is quite good and is able tp keep them in all games this season. Moreover, Daniels and the Commanders’ offense are facing a tea with slim hopes and expectations of becoming a playoff team and sets the stage for them to get the win. The Bucs posted the second worst defensive yards-per-point ratio in the league last year and that too will make it an easier task for Daniels to move the chains and sustain drives. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 37-37 SU (50%) and 50-18-6 ATS (74%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs of 5.5 or fewer points in the first three weeks of the season. The total is priced between 40 and 50 points. The dog won between 4 and 6 games in the previous season. From my predictive models: The models project that the Bucs will not score more than 24 points, and the Commanders will have more red zone opportunities. The Commanders are 80-23 SU (78%) and 77-23-3 ATS (77%) since 1990 when meeting or exceeding these performance measures and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over the past five seasons.
09-08-24	Patriots +8 v. Bengals	Top	16-10	Win	100	4 h 56 m	Show
Patriots vs Bengals 1 ET, Sunday September 8, 2024 \| CBS Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8-Unit Bet on the Patriots priced as a 7.5-point underdogs. This is the game that has had the most media attention focused on it especially in the Circa Survivor and Millions contests. The theme has been that the line is a gift from the books with the Bengals the far superior team and the Patriots expected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Why then, are the Patriots priced only as a 7.5-underdog? The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a remarkable 16-14 SU and 21-9 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs within the first four weeks of the season. The home team is facing the defending super bowl champion in their next game. If the game occurs in the first two weeks of the season, these road teams have gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2002. Look out Circa Survivor entries as an extremely large number of entries and the most popular choice in the contest is the Bengals. The last five years of the contest as seen stunning carnage in the first few weeks and especially week 1 of the season with large favorites failing to come through with a win. There are 4,895 entries in the survivor pool on the Bengals out of a total of 14,206 $1,000 entries. That represents 34% of the pool either advances with a Bengals win or exits with a shocking Bengals loss. Thia is not the reason why we are on the Patriots, but it is a keep piece of near-irrational exuberance by the public herd and that is always a contrarian opportunity. From my predictive models: My predictive models are looking for the Patriots defense to play well and contain the Bengals to 24 or fewer points and have no more than one turnover or have the same or fewer turnovers as the Bengals. To be fair this is a new edition fo the Patriots with a new coaching staff and several younger players on the roster starting with QB Drake May, who may become the starter. However, the Bengals are 28-81 SU (26%) and 25-80-4 ATS (24%) in home games in which they scored 24 or fewer points and the opponent committed no more than one turnover in games played since 1989 and 3-16 SU (16%) and 3-13-3 ATS (19%) over the past five seasons.
09-08-24	Panthers +4 v. Saints	Top	10-47	Loss	-115	4 h 55 m	Show
Panthers vs Saints 1:00 ET Week 1 \| FOX Caesars Superdome 8-Unit best Bet on the Panthers +3.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 50-18-6 ATS (74%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season. The favorite won their last two games of the previous season The favorite failed to make the playoffs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 22-36 SU (38%) and a 38-20 ATS (65%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won two or more games in the previous season than the season before that one. The opponent had won two or more games two seasons ago than last season. It is week 1 of the season. The opponent had a winning record last season. Our team had a losing record in the previous season.
09-08-24	Steelers +4 v. Falcons	Top	18-10	Win	100	4 h 54 m	Show
Steelers vs Falcons 1:00 ET \| FOX Mercedes-Benz Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Steelers plus the 4 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 15-23 SU (40%) and 23-12-3 ATS (66%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs that have defeated the current opponent in each of the last two meetings. The opponent won two or fewer of their lasty five games in the previous season. The dog won three or more of their last five games of the previous season. The total is 46 or fewer points. The occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season.
09-07-24	Texas Tech +1 v. Washington State	Top	16-37	Loss	-108	15 h 1 m	Show
Texas Tech vs Washington State 10 ET, Saturday September 7, 2024 \| FOX Gesa Field, Pullman, WA 8-Unit Bet on the Texas Tech +2.5 points The Red Raiders are coming off a big-time scare as they needed overtime to defeat Abeline Christian 52-51 priced as a whopping 31.5-point favorite. That has been a very rare situation, but if you have been a log-time subscriber you already know I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 points that has won straight-up. Of course, I never know when those monster upsets will occur, but it is always rewarding when we nail one of them. I think there has been an overreaction to the the near historic loss that Texas Tech overcame last week. That type of game will get their attention, and you can bet the coaching staff has been in their players’ faces all week. This Situational CFB Betting Algorithm has gone 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS and is as rare as the outcome of last week’s game. Bet on road underdogs. The dog is coming off a home win. They won the game by four or fewer points priced as a –24 or more-point favorite. They are taking on a non-conference foe. If the game occurs in week 2 these road teams have bounced back with a 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATDS mark good for 78% winning bets. My predictive model projects that TT will score at least 30 points and in past games since 2019 they are 24-10 SU and 26-8 ATS for 77% winning bets. WSU is just 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS for 24% winning bets when they have allowed 31 or more points in games played over the past 5 seasons.
09-07-24	East Carolina v. Old Dominion -1	Top	20-14	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
East Carolina vs Old Dominion 6 ET ESPN+ S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA 8-Unit bet on ODU priced as a –1.5-point favorite. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent.
09-07-24	Marshall v. Virginia Tech -19.5	Top	14-31	Loss	-110	10 h 32 m	Show
Marshall vs Virginia Tech 4:30 ET, September 7 \| The CW Network Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA 8-Unit Bet on V-Tech minus 20.5 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent.
09-06-24	Packers v. Eagles -2	Top	29-34	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
Green Bay vs Philadelphia 8:15 ET, September 6, 2024 \| Peacock Corinthians Arena, Sao Paulo, Brazil 8-Unit Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles –2 points. The Eagles are looking to bounce back from an ugly second half of last season after starting out with the League’s best record at 10-1. Their next game is in Week 2 at home against the Atlanta Falcons and will be televised on MNF and are priced as a 3.5-point home favorite. This game is in Brazil and is a historic first time ever that an NFL game has been played in South America. Still. It is not like these teams traveling to London and bringing their families along because the crime rate is so high that both teams have been ordered to remain in their hotels for fear of being mugged and robbed. The Eagles are 19-6 SU and 15-9-1 ATS for 63% winning bets when favored in games against a non-divisional foe and their next game is on MNF. Live Betting Strategy: First, if you like the Eagles in Week 2 you may want to bet a few units on them now in case the Eagles win this game convincingly and the Falcons lose as 3.5-point home favorites to the Steelers. In this game with the total at 49.5 points implies that there will be more scoring volatility and lead changes than games priced at 40 or fewer points, for instance. So, I like making a 6-Unit bet preflop on the Eagles at –2 (maybe –1.5 later today) and then look to add the remaining 2-Units on the Eagles using the money line if the Packers score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. The NFL Situational Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting system has produced a 115-43 SU and 95-59-4 ATS record good for 62% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on favorites in Week 1. The underdog won 8 or more games in the previous season. If favored by 1.5 or more points these teams have gone to an impressive 110-35 SU and 93-51-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets. From the Predictive Models: My predictive models project that the Eagles will score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the past 3 seasons in which the Eagles met these performance measures has seen them go 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (74%). When Green Bay allowed these performance measures has seen them go 3-8 SU and just 1-10 ATS for 10% winners.
09-05-24	Ravens v. Chiefs -3	Top	20-27	Win	104	9 h 11 m	Show
Ravens vs Chiefs 8:20 ET, September 4, 2024 \| Peacock/NBC 8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs minus three points. Optional Pizza Money Prop Bets: 1-Unit Mahomes Over 267 passing yards 1-Unit Mahomes Over 25 completions. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount preflop and then bet the Chiefs with the remaining 30% amount if the Ravens score first (3 or more points) or the Ravens retake the lead at any point during the first of action. During the 2023 regular season, the Chiefs scored a total of 64 points in the first quarter, but then scored 155 points in the second quarter. The Ravens defense allowed 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the second quarter. So, do not be surprised at all if the Ravens have a lead at some point during the first half of action but exploit that situation as detailed above. The NFL Situational Betting Algorithm: The following situational system has gone 17-5 SU (77%) and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) since 2002. The requirements are: Bet on the defending Super Bowl champion in Week 1 ThatChampion is playing at home. If they are at home and facing a conference foe, they have gone 15-2 SU (88%) and 11-5-1 ATS (69%) since 2002. Moreover, Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 when facing Lamar Jackson. From the Predictive Models:My predictive models are expecting the Ravens to score fewer than 24 points and have a lower and more efficient yards-per-point ratio. In past home games where the Chiefs met these projections they have gone on to a 26-1 SU (96%) and 20-6-1 ATS (77%) record over the past five seasons. Patrick Mahomes is 17-1 SU and 12-5-1 ATS (71%) when he has completed 25 or more passes and passed for 300 or more yards his career when the Chiefs have been priced as a 6 or fewer-point favorite.
08-31-24	Wyoming +6.5 v. Arizona State	Top	7-48	Loss	-110	82 h 19 m	Show
Wyoming vs Arizona State 8-Unit bet on the Wyoming Cowboys getting 6.5 points. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 92-49-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: The game is played in the regular season. The difference between the money bet (handle) and the percentage of tickets is between 11 and 65%. The line movement from opening to closing price is between –0.5 and –9.5 points. The team is the visitor. The spread percentage is between 24 and 40%. So, we have a situation in the markets where the percentage of money bet less the percentage of tickets bet shows that the handle percentage is 11 to 65% more than the tickets percentage. The difference from opening to closing price has worked against the team we are betting on. Currently the line has moved only a half point from +7 to +6.5 points and only 33% of the tickets but 62% of the money is on the Cowboys.
08-31-24	Clemson v. Georgia -11.5	Top	3-34	Win	100	23 h 58 m	Show
No. 14 Clemson vs No. 1 Georgia Noon ET, August 31, 2024 \| ABC/ESPN+ 10-Unit Bet on Georgia priced at 12-point favorites. 3-Unit Pizza-Money bet Under Clemson’s team total Consider betting 70% of your 10-Unit bet on Georgia preflop and then look to add 15% on Georgia at –10.5 points and 15% more on Georgia at –7.5 points. I have learned and profited from this week 1 matchups involving two ranked teams over the years and now this one looks quite string. Remember to bet with your head and not over it. These 10-Unit 5% Max Bets have lost 33% ATS of the time over the past five football seasons. No one knows if the bet is going to win on any given day – confident bets are different than being Nostradamus – but I rely on the fact that they have hit at great winning percentages over 5+ seasons and that by the end of the season we have reason to believe that significant profits will be made again. In week 1 of the regular season and with both teams playing their first game, both are ranked in the AP preseason poll and the difference between these ranks is between 1 and 19, the higher ranked team has gone 28-19 ATS for 60% winners. So, Georgia is ranked #1 and Clemson #14 for a difference of 13. In week 1 and 2 matchups of ranked teams, the favorites priced between –3 and –17.5 points that are playing at home or on a neutral field have gone 37-22-1 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 20 seasons; in Week 1 action they have gone 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets. From the Predictive Model We are expecting Georgia to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than Clemson. In past games played at home or on a neutral field Georgia is 25-0 SU and 19-5-1 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Since the arrival of Kirby Smart, Georgia is 52-2 SU and 38-15-1 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2016 when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Clemson is an anemic 1-6 and 0-7 ATS in games played on the road or a neutral field where they allowed 28 or more points and had the same of more turnovers than the foe spanning the past three seasons. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are just 14-24 SU and 9-29 ATS for 24% winners when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers since 2008. The predictive model grades this a 10-Unit 5% Max bet with an 84% probability that the performance measures identified above will occur in the game. Coach Smart is in his ninth season and is 94-16 SU and 70-43 ATS and this has been accomplished in the SEC Conference. In a somewhat rare situation, he returns 7 starters on both offense and defense and had the top-ranked recruiting class. This is rare because over the last two seasons, he has sent 25 players to the NFL. However, this season he has his returning starting quarterback Carson Beck, who is coming off a 13-1 campaign and a Archie Maning award finalist. He led the Bulldogs to a 5-1 SUATS record when facing Top-25 opponents. Since Smart’s arrival, Georgia has gone 28-10 and 27-11 ATS for 71% winning bets when facing a ranked foe either at home or on a neutral field. Good Luck to Us and remember always bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.
02-11-24	49ers -2 v. Chiefs	Top	22-25	Loss	-105	54 h 22 m	Show
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 6:30 ET \| Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV 10-Unit Bet on the 49ers minus 2 points and if the money line is less than -130 (As in -125) use the money line. 5-Unit Bet Under 47.5 points. I cannot prevent you from placing a parlay on these opportunities but would recommend not to as there are plenty of prop bets that add more than enough risk to our Super Bowl portfolio of bets. If you force me (LOL), I would prefer the teaser (Ouch, I cannot even believe I am writing that) where you tease down the 49ers and the tease up the total. Live Betting Strategy For Live betting consider betting 70% preflop on the 49ers as prescribed above and then look to get 15% more at +1.5 and 15% more at +4.5 points during the first half of action. Of course, you can bet say 80% preflop and then add 10% more at each of these levels and is dependent on how much you like the 49ers to win the game. As for the Over bet I like betting 2.5 units preflop. If the game starts out terribly slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 2.5 units and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 2.5 units UNDER preflop and then look to add 1.5 units at 50.5 points and 1 more unit at 53.5 points. Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me. A Disclaimer I am a documented 22-5 ATS in the Super Bowls and that record is not a guarantee that this 10-Unit bet will win this year. My goal is always to see you bet with discipline and the reality that in a one game situation anything can happen. No one has a crystal ball. I do have massive databases and predictive models using machine learning and gaussian probability tools that have done extremely well over the course of a season and a calendar year. My 10-Unit MAX Bets have LOST 32% of the time on a 78-38 record across all sports and more than 4+ years of betting action. Make no mistake, I like the 49ers quite a bit, but it is another individual bet and will not have any impact to my season-to-date profits or my 2024 year-end profits. A Highly Profitable NFL Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-16 SU record and 33-14-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are: · Bet on any team lined between the 3’s. · That team is on a three or more-game ASTS losing streak. · The opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. Note, in the playoffs going back to 2003, the Under is 12-3 for 80% winning bets in a matchup where one of the teams is on a 3-game ATS losing streak and the opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: · Bet the under in game where the total us priced between 42.5 and 49 points. · One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread. · That team is facing a foe that is coming off an upset road win. If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections The market at current pricing of 47.5 point total and the 49ers favored by 1.5 points reflects a 24.5-23 49ers win. In the NFL ranks, the 27-point scoring level is a significant pivot for many of the elite teams. For instance, over the past five seasons, the Dolphins own the best record when scoring 27 or more points producing a 24-7 SU and 26-3-2 ATS mark for 90% winning bets. Over the same period, the 49ers have gone 44-3 SU and 35-10-2 ATS and the Chiefs have gone 49-4 SU and 34-18-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points. The Chiefs ATS win percentage is second-lowest to only the Minnesota Vikings, who are 32-10 SU and 26-15-1 ASTS for 63% winning bets. The predictive models are calling for the 49ers to score 27 or more points and will gain more total yards and average at least 6.25 yards per play. In past games spanning the past five seasons, the 49ers are 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. The Chiefs are 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS when they have allowed 27 or more points, gained fewer total yards and allowed 6.25 or more yards per play. Teams that have produced a 14 or lower (better and more efficient) offensive yards per point ratio has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets in the Super Bowl. The forecast is for the 49ers to produce a 13 or lower YPPT ratio. In the super bowl teams that have scored 27 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone on to a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ASTS record good for 73% winning bets. My expectations are that the 49ers wrinkle in this game and one that will not be surprising to the Chiefs defense is that they will start the game in a spread formation and not the ‘22’ formation. The ‘22’ is a formation where only one WR is set away from the line of scrimmage and with a pair of TE and RB packed in close to the ball. The reason is simply that Purdy will be able to see where the blitz pressure is coming from far easier than in a packed-in-the phone booth ‘22’ set. Eventually, I believe the Chiefs will have to commit one of their two safeties to support the run defense. When you see this happen during the game you can then expect play action and throw to a WR in man coverage and executing a vertical post or crossing route. The Pizza Money Prop Bets First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5 point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriot they obviously lost and if you added a plethora of plater props on aardy and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. Prop Bets 1. McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128 Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that MaCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets. 2. Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards. This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs. 3. Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards 4. Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL) 5. Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game. 6. Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety. 7. Kyle Juszcyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage is not a which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszcyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas. 8. Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170 Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their winner over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet. It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL that have been around for any stretch of time have posted horrid records in this trailing situation. Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win while the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three quarters of action. Most Games When Trailing By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Bill Belichick 19-102 SU \| 11-107-3 ATS (9.3%) 2. Jeff Fisher 12-108 SU \| 16-101-3 ATS (14%) 3. Tom Coughlin 15-94 SU \| 17-87-5 ATS (16%) 4. Andy Reid 20-80 SU \| 18-81-1 ATS (18%) 5. John Fox 11-83 SU \| 15-77-2 ATS (16%) Lowest Win Percentages When Trailing by 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Gruden 0-34 SU \| 2-32 ATS (6%) 2. Spagnuolo 0-29 SU \| 4-24-1 ATS (14%) 3. Mangini 0-29 SU \| 5-24 ATS (17%) 4. Hue Jackson 0-28-1 \| 5-24 ATS (17%) 5. Sparano 0-28 SU \| 4-24 ATS (14%) Most Games When Leading By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Belichick 234-16 SU \| 212-30-8 ATS (88%) 2. Reid 183-21 SU \|162-40-2 ATS (80%) 3. Coughlin 115-14 SU \| 106-21-2 ATS (84%) 4. Shanahan 112-16 SU 95-31-2 ATS (75%) 5. John Harbaugh 110-17 SU \| 94-31-2 ATS (75%)
01-28-24	Lions v. 49ers -7	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	10 h 47 m	Show
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit bet on the 49ers minus the 7 points and is valid up 7.5 points. Consider betting 75% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% on two parts consisting of 15% on the 49ers -4.5 points and 10% more at -1.5 points during the first half of action. Home teams in the conference championship that failed to cover the spread in their divisional win and had fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The only loss was when the team was on the road. The Green Bay packers traveled to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 8.5-point underdogs and enjoyed a 16-point half time lead. How, the Seahawks stormed back with 22 second-half points (15 of them scored in the fourth quarter) and won 28-22. So, home teams in this role are undefeated and in any round of the playoffs have gone 17-12-1 ATS for 59% and Supporting this bet on the 49ers is the following algorithm that has gone 25-13 (66%) SU and 25-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: · Bet on home favorites in the playoffs. · Facing an opponent that won 5 or more games, but were outgained in the stats. · That opponent is coming off a home win. If in the Conference Championship Game Ø 11-3 SU \| 12-2 86% ATS \| 8-6 O-U
01-28-24	Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-10	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens 10-Unit bet on the Chiefs plus 3 or more points. Consider betting 60% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% on the Chiefs at +6.5 and then 20% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action. 5-Unit Bet OVER 44.5 points. Consider betting just 40% preflop on the total because the first quarter scoring in these Championship games sees the least amount of points scored. Then if the game does go accoding to plan, you will be able to add 30% more at 41.5 points and 30% more at 39.5 points at some point during the first half of action. The downside is that if the game starts out fast, you are likely to only have 40% bet on the Over preflop, but that also implies that bet will be winning by margin at the half. CBS Sports noted that Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers was 0-31 SU when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter and last week’s comeback against the Packer’s was the first time he and the 49ers overcame that type of deficit to win a game. However, this type of stat is a bit misleading starting with the fact that all NFL coaches and their teams have had few wins when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth. In 49ers history Mike Nolan went 0-27 and Dennis Erickson went 0-27, for instance. Bill Belichick went 19-102, Jeff Fisher went 12-108, Tom Coughlin went 15-94, and Andy Reid went 20-80 to round out the top-4 coaches records with 100 or more trailing by 5+ entering the fourth quarter. Speaking of Reid, he is tops on the coaching list with 20 come from behind fourth quarter wins trailing by 5+ points. In case you were wondering Jay Gruden went 0-34 for his career when trailing by 5+ points entering the fourth quarter. In week 16 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs were priced as 11.5-point favorites and trailed by 20-7 entering the fourth and lost 20-14 to the AFC West Division rival Raiders. Ten of the 20 wins in this situation for coach Reid have occurred with the Chiefs and prior to that with the Eagles. With the Chiefs he is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games, so keep that in mind too if they are trailing entering the fourth. Since 2019, the Chiefs have played in a league-high 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed 6 or more-point leads at some point during these games. What is remarkable is Reid has won 26 of these 32 games and went 17-9 ATS and 18-8 OVER. So, I do see many lead changes in this AFC Championship game against the Ravens. Supporting this bet on the Chiefs is the following algorithm that has gone 31-39 SU and 49-21-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: · Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. · Our dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games. · The host forced zero turnovers in their previous game. if the game occurs in the playoffs our dogs have gone 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Although just two games, these dogs have gone 1-1 and 2-0 ATS in the Conference Championship. Player Prop bets for Both games today: 1) Bet Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs -110 2) Bet Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions +115 3) Bet Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards -110 4) Bet Pacheco OVER 15.5 longest rush -105 5) Bet Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards -115 6) Bet Goff OVER 2.5 passing TDs +300 7) Bet George Kittle most receiving yards +550 Analysts will say that Kyle Hamilton will take away Kelce. Maybe. The fact that TEs have done well against this defense bodes well for Kelce. He’s had 71+ yards in each playoff game. The Chiefs will need him if they want to have a chance to score 20+ points.
01-21-24	Bucs +6.5 v. Lions	Top	23-31	Loss	-115	5 h 45 m	Show
Tampa Bay vs Detroit 3:00 PM EST \| NBC Ford Field, Detroit 10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season. Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets. If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard. If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.
01-20-24	Packers +10.5 v. 49ers	Top	21-24	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
Green Bay vs San Francisco Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA 8:15 PM EST \| FOX 5-Unit bet on the Over 50.5 points and is valid to 51.5 points. 8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points 1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets.
01-20-24	Texans +10 v. Ravens	Top	10-34	Loss	-114	5 h 35 m	Show
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 4:30 PM EST \| ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ M&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD 8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points. The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out. Live Betting Strategy Consider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead. Situational Betting Algorithm This one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime. On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans. The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives. The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands. Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
01-15-24	Steelers +10.5 v. Bills	Top	17-31	Loss	-115	5 h 32 m	Show
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY 4:30 EST \| CBS 8-Unit Best Bet on the Steelers +10 points and is valid at 9.5 points. Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind. Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game. Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond. The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game. In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th.
01-14-24	Packers +7 v. Cowboys	Top	48-32	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys 4:30 EST \| Fox\| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX 10-Unit Bet on the Green Bay Packers +7.5 points and is good at +7 points. I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys. I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first. In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002. Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action. Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1.
01-08-24	Washington +5 v. Michigan	Top	13-34	Loss	-105	8 h 56 m	Show
Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 7:30 PM EST \| ESPN 8-Unit bet on Washington plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog, but I do not see this line moving if at all ahead of kickoff. With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points. This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference. Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1. Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons. Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes. From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons.
01-07-24	Bills -3 v. Dolphins	Top	21-14	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
Buffalo vs Miami Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL 8:20 ET \| NBA 8-Unit bet on the Bills minus the 2.5 points and is valid up to 3.5 points. The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are: · Bet on road teams facing a winning record host. · The road team defeated the host in their previous game. · The game occurs in the second half of the regular season. · The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host. · The total is 48 or more points. The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
01-07-24	Cowboys v. Commanders +13	Top	38-10	Loss	-110	6 h 29 m	Show
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders 4:25 ET \| FedEx Field, Landover, MD 8-Unit bet on the Commanders +13.5 points and valid if they remain a double-digit underdog. Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team. The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years. So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits.
01-07-24	Eagles -4.5 v. Giants	Top	10-27	Loss	-112	6 h 28 m	Show
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 4:25 EST \| FOX 8-Unit bet on the Eagles minus the 4.5 points and is valid to -6 points. Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying. Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners.
01-06-24	Steelers -3 v. Ravens	Top	17-10	Win	100	26 h 30 m	Show
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 4:30 ET \| ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ 8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points. Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action. Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015.
01-01-24	Texas -3.5 v. Washington	Top	31-37	Loss	-110	33 h 47 m	Show
10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points. The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing. Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas. Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee. From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015. Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-31-23	Cardinals v. Eagles -13	Top	35-31	Loss	-108	2 h 29 m	Show
Arizona vs Philadelphia Lincoln Financial Field 1 ET 8-Unit Titan Bet on the Eagles minus 13 points. My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does. I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR. So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards. Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.
12-31-23	Dolphins +3 v. Ravens	Top	19-56	Loss	-100	2 h 28 m	Show
Miami vs Baltimore M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 1:00 ET \| CBS 10-Unit bet on the Dolphins +3.5 points. Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game. Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Our dog has allowed
12-31-23	Raiders +4.5 v. Colts	Top	20-23	Win	100	2 h 28 m	Show
Raiders vs Colts 1 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis 8-Unit best bet on the Raiders plus the points currently priced as 4-point underdogs. I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-31-23	49ers v. Commanders +14	Top	27-10	Loss	-105	2 h 27 m	Show
49ers vs Washington 1:00 ET \| EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville 8-Unit bet on the Commanders plus the 14 points Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.
12-30-23	Ole Miss v. Penn State -4.5	Top	38-25	Loss	-110	25 h 19 m	Show
Mississippi vs Penn State Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA Noon, Saturday December 30 10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 5.5 points and is valid to 7 points. Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action. Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll. Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin. PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.
12-29-23	Notre Dame v. Oregon State +6	Top	40-8	Loss	-110	22 h 51 m	Show
Notre Dame vs Oregon State Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas 2 ET 8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action. Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014. The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019.
12-29-23	Clemson v. Kentucky +3.5	Top	38-35	Win	100	2 h 1 m	Show
Clemson vs Kentucky TaxSlayer Gator Bowl \| Noon ET, Friday 8-Unit Bet on Kentucky plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog. This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl. Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are: The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14. The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33. The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013. The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978. The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas. Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky. Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game. Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions. Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons.
12-28-23	Jets +7.5 v. Browns	Top	20-37	Loss	-110	60 h 36 m	Show
NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Thursday NFL on Prime 8-Unit Bet on the Jets plus the 7 points and is valid down to 5.5 points. 8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points. Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002. So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points. I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets. Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets.
12-27-23	Louisville -6 v. USC	Top	28-42	Loss	-110	3 h 15 m	Show
USC vs Louisville 8 ET \| Fox \| Holiday Bowl Petco Park, San Diego, CA 8-Unit bet on the Trojans plus the 7 0oints and is valid down to 6.5 points. Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season. The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup. USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites. The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers.
12-24-23	Cardinals +4 v. Bears	Top	16-27	Loss	-110	6 h 23 m	Show
Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears 4:25 PM EST, Christmas Eve 8-Unit Best Bet on the Cardinals plus the points. Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990. Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.
12-24-23	Cowboys v. Dolphins -2	Top	20-22	Push	0	6 h 23 m	Show
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins 4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve 10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points. Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins. Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets. The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season. The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs. [DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid.
12-23-23	Utah v. Northwestern +6	Top	7-14	Win	100	54 h 52 m	Show
Northwestern vs. Utah 68 Ventures Bowl, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas 7:30 PM EST, Saturday December 23, 2023 8-Unit bet on Northwestern plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4 points. Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started.
12-23-23	Bengals v. Steelers +2.5		11-34	Win	100	126 h 38 m	Show
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog. This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%). Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990.
12-19-23	UTSA v. Marshall +8.5	Top	35-17	Loss	-110	4 h 5 m	Show
UTSA vs Marshall Frisco Bowl 9 ET December 19 8-Unit bet on Marshall plus 7.5 points and is valid bet if they remain the dog UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position. Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals. He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense. From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS.
12-17-23	Cowboys v. Bills -1.5	Top	10-31	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
Dallas vs Buffalo 8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points. Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining. The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops. From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004. The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets.
12-17-23	Commanders +6.5 v. Rams	Top	20-28	Loss	-107	29 h 15 m	Show
Commanders vs Rams 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the 6.5 points and is good down to 5.5 points. 5-Unit Bet on the Under currently at 50.5 points. Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions. Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017.
12-17-23	Bears v. Browns -3	Top	17-20	Push	0	26 h 11 m	Show
Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points. Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.
12-11-23	Packers v. Giants +7	Top	22-24	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
Green Bay Packers vs NY Giants 10-Unit Bet on the Giants plus the 6-points. Consider betting this game by placing a 7.5-unit amount preflop at +6 and then look in game and bet the remaining 2.5 units if the Packers score a TD first or score a TD to go up 10-0 or if they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action only. Betting on teams that are facing a foe that has won their last three games priced as a dog has produced a highly profitable 26-20 SU (57%) and 28-18 ATS for 61% winning bets since 1990. If our team is playing at home they improve modestly to 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS for 63% including a 17-6-1 Under mark for 74% winning bets. If our team is the dog or priced at pick-em they have gone to produce a highly profitable 13-11 SU mark and 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 9 on out, they soar to an incredible 8-7 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are slow starting ones being outscored by 5 or more PPG in the first half of action and after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 24-33 SU and 40-15-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-10-23	Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys	Top	13-33	Loss	-115	10 h 9 m	Show
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys 8-Unit bet on the Eagles plus the 3.5 points and is valid to 2.5 points. Betting on road teams priced between 3- and 7-point underdogs that have two or fewer losses that defeated a divisional foe, who has three or more losses in the previous meeting have gone 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. Eagles are 7-0 ATS when on the road and following a game in which they allowed 30 or more points; 31-14-1 ATS following two straight games in which 50 or more points were scored. Cowboys are 16-38-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Eagles have played a much more difficult schedule to date than the Cowboys, who have yet defeat a team with a winning record. From my predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have an edge in time of possession. In past games when meeting these projections and also facing a divisional foe has seen them go 54-2 SU and 48-6-2 and since 2017 they have gone 12-0 SU as a dog. Let’s bet the Eagles plus the points and should the Cowboys score a TD first in this game or get to 10-0 or 10-3 lead during the first half, then the money line for pizza money sized bet is a great opportunity.
12-10-23	Bills +1.5 v. Chiefs	Top	20-17	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Bills vs. Chiefs 4:25 PM EST 10-Unit Best Bet on the Bills at pick-em or a dog price. If they do move to a favorite bet 50% of your bet size on the Bills, then look for any underdog price of 3.5 or more points for the Bills during the first half of action. Buffalo is off the BYE and the Chiefs have not been playing well of late. Over a three stretch that began 5 games ago, they did not score a single point in the second half. Buffalo is healthier than they have been since the start of the season and are in desperation mode at 6-6 and truly playing with their season on the line. The following betting algorithm has done quite well. · Bet on road teams facing a conference foe. · The road team has failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last four games. · The game occurs in December. · 51-47 SU (52%)\| 67-30-1 ATS (69%) last 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points has seen our road team go 31-12 ATS (72%) and supports a bet on the Bills Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in roads games following a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points; 22-7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in road games they have gone 49-5 SU and ATS and 15-4 SUATS for 79% over the past 10 seasons.
12-10-23	Lions v. Bears +3.5	Top	13-28	Win	100	3 h 49 m	Show
Lions vs. Bears 8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 3.5 points and is a valid bet if they remain the underdog. Betting against favorites of not more than 4.5 points that are playing in week 14 and later and are coming off a road win and have a winning record on the season have gone 14-21 SU and 11-22-2 for 33% winning bets since 1989. If that false favorite defeated a divisional foe in a previous meeting, they underperform even more going 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS for a miserable 21% winning bets. This all supports a best bet opportunity on the Chicago Bears.
12-10-23	Colts +2.5 v. Bengals	Top	14-34	Loss	-100	3 h 48 m	Show
Colts vs. Bengals 1:00 ET 8-Unit Best Bet on the Colts plus 2.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog. Betting on teams coming off an ATS win in which they won the game outright by a single score , completed 30 or more passes in that win and now find themselves priced as a home favorite have gone 24-30 SU and 20-34 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 44 or more points in these games, our road warrior has gone 22-14 SU and 26-10 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.
12-10-23	Rams +7.5 v. Ravens	Top	31-37	Win	100	3 h 48 m	Show
Rams vs. Ravens 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points and sprinkle the money line if the Ravens score a TD first in this game. Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games have gone 16-19 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018. If the total in these games is 40 or more points, these road dogs have gone 13-18 SU and 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018.
12-07-23	Patriots +6 v. Steelers	Top	21-18	Win	100	26 h 4 m	Show
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 ET \| Prime 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Patriots +6 points. I was holding my nose tightly given the stickiness of this road dog, who has won just two games this season. However, as we saw on Monday, which was not the first time, teams that look to have minimal chance of being competitive let alone have a chance to win the game outright, somehow find a way to shock NFL fans. I do believe this is one of those games. Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 21-33 SU and 37-16-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2019. If our road underdog is priced between 3 and 9 points they have done even better posting a 20-5 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets and if the game occurs from Week 13 on out, these dogs with a serious case of fleas and badly needed bath are a perfect 10-0 ATS and 5-5 SU since 2019. Betting on terrible teams that are priced between 3.5 and 10-point dogs and averaging 14 or fewer PPG on the season and scored fewer than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 36-18 for 67% winning bets since 1990. If the game is occurring from Week 9 on out, these dogs have gone 12-15 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets.
12-04-23	Bengals v. Jaguars -10	Top	34-31	Loss	-102	9 h 7 m	Show
Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville EverBank Stadium 8:15 ET \| ABC/ESPN 8-Unit best Bet on Jacksonville minus the 10 points. Consider betting 70% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 30% more at 6.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only. Betting on home favorites from -5 to -12 points in a game with a total of 40 or fewer points that have covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games and facing a losing record team has earned a solid 31-6 SU (84%) and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Betting on home teams that are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 6 or more YPPL and was outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 29-13-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.41 yards per play. I have been hearing and more importantly seeing that the offensive play calls are now being called by Doug Pederson and since this ‘rumor’ began to circle around the Jaguars offense has been quite good. In the past two weeks, the Jaguars have scored 58 points, they have won and covered 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss and failed cover to the 49ers, who are destroying everyone on their schedule since the BYE week three weeks ago. The Bengals have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Their ground game has all but disappeared and gained just 25 yards on 11 rushes in their 16-10 loss to divisional foe Pittsburgh. The Bengals D has allowed 153, 157, and 188 rushing yards in each of their last three games. Pederson is 7-0 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the HC of the Jaguars; 10-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages less than 1 turnover per game for his career. From the predictive models we are looking for the Jaguars to have 100 or more total yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In previous home games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to a 173-5 SU record and 146-28-4 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets since 2019.

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