Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
The LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals 5% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points. I also like. Placing a 1% or one unit. Wager on the Bengals using the money line. Take advantage of the Super Bowl to Super Bowl special for just $699 that saves you $600 over the regular 365-day subscription. This gives you All Access to Every pick I release in every sports including the 5% (5-Unit MAX Bets). There is a terrific and highly profitable betting angle or algorithm if you will that has earned a 30-6-1 ATS since 1980. This algorithm has also gone undefeated at 7-0 ATS over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points after posting four consecutive games with a turnover margin off +1 or better and are now facing an opponent coming off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. Remember too, that is NOT the game to “Go For It” - nor is any game. I am betting my 5% amount and a 1% on the money line and then 0.5% (0.25-units) on the 10 prop bets that follow below. It is a fact that I am 18-5 ATS for 77% winning bets over my career and there were 4 Super Bowls that I did not wager on the side or the total. The thrill of winning is terrific, but the agony of waking up Monday with the thoughts of “why in the world did I do that” is far worse. The first prop that I like here on the DraftKings sportsbook betting odds board is Cincinnati Bengals total field goal yardage. DraftKings has it lined at over 60.5 yards paying minus 115 vig if you like the under 65 yards you're getting minus 110 vig. I'm taking the over in this prop bet. The Cincinnati Bengals has an excellent rookie kicker in Evan McPherson who is 5 foot 10 and weighs 195 pounds and played for the University of Florida. In his rookie NFL season, he played in 16 games made 28 of 33 field goal attempts and made 46 of 48 extra point attempts. In road games this season he was spectacular, and the Bengals were 5-2 in those road games. He converted 20 of 21 extra points for 95% and made 100% going 14 for 14 in field goal attempts. In the seven road games he accounted for 62 points. From long range, those field goals of 50 or more yards McPherson made 11 of 13 attempts on the season. So, let's see what other prop bets are attractive for this Super Bowl. McPherson OVER 7.5 pts -135 Mcpherson is lined at 7 1/2 points. Betting the over in the number of points he will be accountable for does cost minus 135 vig but I think he will kick at least two field goals and make two extra points that right there is eight points in total, so I like over 7 1/2 points coming from Evan McPherson of the Cincinnati Bengals. Ja’Marr Chase +900 to score first TD of the game Another player prop is involving touchdowns scored. I like Ja’Marr Chase wide receiver for Cincinnati at plus 900 to be the first player to score a touchdown. I also like him at plus 900 to score the last touchdown of the game. Odell Beckham, Jr. is a wide receiver and one of the many weapons on the Rams offense. He is lined at plus 600 to be the first scorer of a touchdown by the Rams offense. Game Alternative Line Prop Bets Kupp and Higgins anytime TD + under 54.5 points +725 Kupp, Chase, Mixon, and Beckham, Jr. All score anytime TD +1250 Joe Mixon Rushing yards greater than the 4th Round score of the Winner of PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open Event –110 From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bengals to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer number of turnovers. In past games over the last three seasons, the Bengals are 16-3 ATS for 84.2% winning bets and when they have been the dog they are 8-2 SU, 10-0 ATS for 100% winners. Good Luck and TY for a terrific season on the NCAAF + NFL gridiron. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
Cincinnati Vs. Kansas City 5-UNIT (5%) Best Bet on the Bengals plus the points Yep, after poring through mountains of analytics, fundamental matchup analysis, and the projections produced from my machine learning models, the pick is on the Bengals. Moreover, they have an excellent opportunity to extend their post season for one more game, Super Bowl LVI. A sprinkle of not more than 1-UNIT on the money line is recommended. At BetMGM, I like the alternative spread and total parlay betting the Bengals +3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +375 for 0.5-Units. Plus, a second one., which is obviously a bit bolder taking the Bengals –3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +850 for 0.5 Units. The Bengals placekicker, McPherson, has made 11 of 13 field goals from beyond 50 yards this season. He is lined at extra points made 2.5 over-under and the over is +105. The Bengals team total is 23.5 points. OVER 2.5 extra points reflects the fact that the Bengals score three or more TD’s and is a much alternative to bet on, then to bet OVER the Bengals team total. So, put me down for 0.5 units OVER 2.5 extra points made by McPherson. The Benglas have significant advantages with their receiver corps going up against an underwhelming cornerback group and the backend of the Chiefs defense is below average and that is being kind. Plus, safety Tyrann Mathieu remains listed as questionable and must get through the concussion protocol to be eligible for this game. Burrow is three years removed from taking the LSU Tigers to the National Championship, so the bright lights of this AFC Championship game is not in any way going to be an overwhelming one for him. This season on 1st and 10 situations, he has completed 73.3% of his 170 pass attempts gaining 1557 yards including 9 TDs. On third and needing more than 10+ yards to move the chains he completed 77.8% of his passes for 475 yards. His bets situation this season has been on second and needing 7 to 9 yards to move the chains in which he completed 73.6% of his passes for 484 yards including 5 TDs and a sky-high 132 quarterback rating. Burrow ranked best in the NFL throwing 82.8% of his passes on target. Surprisingly, the 49ers Garoppolo was second-best at 81.5% accuracy. Burrow led the NFL with a 10.7% bad throw percentage while Mahomes ranked sixth-worst throwing 18.8% bad throws. The Chiefs ran the third-most play action pass plays on the NFL with 147. The Bengals do not need to use play action because of the elite group of receivers and with Burrows being the most accurate ball thrower in the NFL. They ran almost half as many play action plays, with 75, then the Chiefs did, and they have the more mobile quarterback. Over the last three games the Chiefs averaged 37.3 PPG while the Bengals have been in slugfests and averaging 20.3 PPG. Playoff favorites that are averaging 15 or more PPG on offense over their last three games than their opponent is just 7-6 SU, 3-10 ATS for 23%. Reid is 1-10 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards over his last three games as the coach of the Chiefs. The Bengals have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games and teams on a 5+ ats win streak in the playoffs are 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS for 59% and if the DOG the UNDER is 8-2. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs 3:00 EST, Divisional Playoff Round 10-UNIT best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points I do believe there is one tremendous fact that provides the ultimate motivation for any team led by Tom Brady, who is 44 years old and is older than the three other NFC teams head coaches. Brady still has a year left on his contract, however, there is reason to believe that he would retire with another Super Bowl win. Imagine being a teammate knowing you can be part of that history. Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing a team that has completed 64% or more of their past attempts and 10-2 ATS facing teams averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and 7-0 ATS facing a team gaining at least 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt. Rams are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game. Bucs head coach Arians is 9-2 ATS when facing the elite NFL offenses that are gaining at least six yards per play in the second half of each season. From my predictive models, the Bucs are expected to score 27 or more points and have fewer turnovers than the Rams. In past games since Brady arrived in Tampa, the Bucs are 21-1, 20-1-1 ATS, and 11-10-1 over-under when scoring 27 or more points and winning the turnover battle. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Packers 8:15 PM EST, January 22, 2022 5% Best Bet on the 49ers plus the points and a 3-UNIT bet UNDER the posted total. The 49ers and the Bucs are the two highest rated teams in my current power ratings. Despite being the first playoff team to ever play a game with 6-days of rest and having to face a team coming off the BYE, the 49ers are playing so extraordinarily well it just will not matter in thi matchup. I also think the media and others are over hyping the game-time temperatures. All of these professional players have played several games in their college and pro careers in even worse conditions then they will experience tomorrow night. In recent weeks, the Packers defense cannot stop the run and are being gashed period. In fact, they are allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush in their home games this season. Did you know that playoff home teams that allowed 5 or more rushing yards per attempt are 5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, and the UNDER is 10-5. So, this works in favor in the UNDER and modestly against the Packers. Over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons, betting the UNDER in road games with the #6 seed has earned an amazing 25-6 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets with 58% of the bets going UNDER the total by at least 7 points. SF is 15-3-1 UNDER for 83% winning bets when facing teams that average 32 or more minutes in time of possession in games played after the halfway point of the season and includes the playoffs. From my predictive model, the 49ers are expected to pass for a minimum of at least 8 yards per pass attempt and will gain at least 380 total yards. In past road games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to 32-14-2 ATS record for 69% winning bets. Playoff road teams that gain 380 or more yards and pass for 8 or more yards per pass attempt have earned a 17-5 ATS record good for 77% winning bets. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals +4 v. Titans | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Tennessee 4-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals and 1.0-Unit Best Bet parlay using the Bengals money line and the OVER. 0.5-unit alternative line parlay Bengals –3.5 and OVER 50.5 points I am on the Bengals in this matchup and believe they all the pieces in place to earn a historic franchise road win for their frenzied fans. Let’s look at a betting angle that has been highly profitable over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on the OVER involving a game in which a team is coming off a win but failed to cover the spread (they were favored) and now facing an opponent that is coming off a home win. That simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 46-13 OVER record good for 78% winning bets. Tennessee is the team coming off the no-cover home win and if that team is coming off BYE or the is the first seed in the playoffs earning the week off has led to a terrible 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS mark for 17% winners. Betting on underdogs that had no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing an opponent coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 65-40 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 10 seasons including playoffs. Over the last 20 playoff seasons, teams that come into the game on a four-game turnover streak committing not one turnover are 5-1 SU and ATS. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Arizona vs LA Rams 4% best bet on the Rams minus the points. My models give the Rams the second-highest power rating of the 14 playoff teams and only the Bucs are higher – not the Packers. The models also project that the Rams will gain at least 6.2 yards per play and score at least 27 points. In past games in which the Rams scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6.2 YPPL, they went on to an 83-20 SU record and 67-31-5 ATS mark for 68.4% winners over the last 15 seasons. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
New England vs Miami Here is a sensational betting algorithm that has systematically earned a 49-19 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allows 95 to 125 rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent that averages only 75 to 99 RYPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games rushing the ball for less than 100 yards in each game. This angle has earned an 18-6-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons. Under Belichick the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in road games and revenging a same loss of three or fewer points. |
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01-09-22 | Saints v. Falcons +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Atlanta 4% bet on the Falcons plus the points Here is terrific betting algorithm that has produced consistent winning bets on a home team using the money line that is coming off two or more UNDERS and now facing an opponent that is also coming two or more unders has produced a 26-12 record for 68.4% winning bets over the past five seasons and is 48-23 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If home team is an underdog of not more than 6.5 points, they start really barking to the tune of an 11-5 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Saints committed no turnovers while forcing two turnovers in their 18-10 win over Carolina last week. They are 0-4 SU following a game in which they had a +2 or better turnover margin this season. |
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01-09-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +14.5 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 4% bet on the UNDER Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season. |
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01-09-22 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 4% bet on the UNDER Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season. |
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01-02-22 | Falcons v. Bills OVER 46 | 15-29 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Falcons vs Bills 4% (4-UNIT) best bet OVER the posted total Over the past two seasons the Bills are 8-0 OVER when facing a team, whose defense allows 64% or higher pass completions. Bills are 12-3-1 OVER coming off a double digit win in games played over the last two seasons. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders v. Colts -8 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
Las Vegas vs Indianapolis 4% (4-UNIT) best Bet on the Colts minus the points. The Colts started out this season losing four of the first five games and looked as dysfunctional as that AFC team located in NYC. However, they more than got their acts together on both sides of the ball and are not in thick of the muddled AFC playoff chase. For the first time since 1991, the Raiders won back-to-back games scoring 17 or fewer points in each win. This is not good news for the Raider Nation this week. Teams of two consecutive wins scoring no more than 17 points in each win are just 39-50-2 ATS for 44% wins since 1989. If that team is a dog of 3.5 or more points, they fall flat with a 8-14 ATS record for 36% wins. Betting against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog over a divisional foe and has a winning record for the season has earned a 74-36-6 record for 67.3% winning bets since 1989, and 8-1-1 ATS for 89% winners over the last 3 seasons. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
Miami vs Tennessee The Dolphins became the first team in NFL history to have a 7-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in the same season after they defeated the Saints 20-3 Monday. They are on a 7-game win streak and have covered the spread in six of the games. Tennessee earned a massive win over the 49ers to keep their playoff hopes alive knowing the surging Colts are right on their heels. Tannehill has struggled under pressure this season, ranking 23rd in Total QBR (10.9), 31st in touchdown-to-interception ratio and last in yards per drop backs at 1.2 yards per play. The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL with a 37% pressure rate. The #Finsup will bring pressure more than 50% of the offensive plays the Titans run and without Henry’s pounding ground attack the Titans will struggle to move the chains. The Titans trailed at the half in their 20-17 comeback win over the 49ers Sunday. Teams that trailed at the half by 8 or more points and came back to win the game and are now playing at home are a money-burning 17-42-2 ATS for 29% wins over the last 10 seasons. Miami makes it 8 wins in a row. |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Washington 4% (4-UNIT) best bet on the Washington Football Team This is just a horrid situational matchup for the playoff-hopeful Eagles and their fans. What appears to be an ‘easy’ win somehow has the potential to be a disaster for the City of Brotherly Love faithful. Recency bias could not be at higher extremes with WFT getting destroyed and humiliated by the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys and the Eagles taking care of business against the hapless NY Giants. Underdogs, like the Washington Iron Condors (They need a real mascot) that have been beaten by the spread by 27 or more points spanning their last three games and are playing in Week 15 on out have gone 58-110 34% SU, 96-68-4 ATS for 59%, UNDER 90-77 for 54% winners since 2000. |
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01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens +6.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 102 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
Rams vs Ravens Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game committing no more than a single turnover and facing an opponent that is coming off a game having lost the turnover battle by 2 or more has earned a 32-11-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Rams have won 4 straight games and cover the spread in all those games. They defeated Minnesota 30-23 last week but had three turnovers and forced Minnesota to just one. Harbaugh is 12-3 ATS off three or more consecutive OVERS as the coach of the Ravens. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Miami vs New Orleans 10-Unit Best Bet on the Saints plus the points. Love the Saints if they remain an underdog. Check out this money line betting angle-system that has earned an incredible 38-10 for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons, 64-31 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is 7-2 this season. Bet on any team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and also coming off a road win over a divisional opponent. Talk about letdown for the Dolphins in this matchup in New Orleans. Since the 1994 season, teams playing in Week 15 on out to the end of the regular season priced as the favorite have gone just 8-14-1 ATS for 36% winning bets Iam Book will be the quarterback for the Saints in this matchup because Trevor Siemian is OUT, Taysom Hill is doubtful due to COVID-19. Let’s not forget this is one of the better defenses in the NFC. The Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said all QBs on the roster are preparing and studying virtually or at the Dolphins practice facility for the Dolphins and didn't commit to officially starting Book being the starter. Do not be fooled here with a rookie quarterback, who has been inactive for all 14 of the Saints games this season. He reminds of Nick Mullins in that he makes smart decisions, is highly accurate, and is mobile – at least mobile enough to extend plays. Note that the Dolphins were having better results with returning starters. Sixth overall draft choice Jaylen Waddle was re-activated from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and is set to continue his pursuit of an NFL rookie record for catches. He has 86 catches this season. However, the betting line moved only a single point after that news, and I would have thought that he was worth at least 2 to 3 points. So, selling into this near-frenzy wave of Dolphins bets makes perfect logic to me. The Dolphins are 3-11 and 4-10 ATS for 29% when playing on Mondays dating back to the 2006 season. That is the worst record on Mondays of any team in that span and includes a 38-17 loss at New Orleans in 2013. So, here we go with an upset alert and let’ cash this 5-Unit Best Bet. Good Luck to US! |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Seattle vs Rams 4-Unit Bet on the OVER Seattle is 22-9 OVER in road games occurring after week 8 of the regular season when playing against an opponent that has won at least 65% of their games on the season and 42-19-1 OVER in road games when playing against an opponent with a winning record under Pete Carroll. Seattle is 78-43 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 20 years and under Pete Carroll, the OVER is a solid 22-7 for 76% winning bets. From the predictive models, the Rams are expected to gain 350 or more passing yards and Seattle is 21-6 OVER in games in which they allowed 350 or more passing yards. The Rams are 26-8 OVER when they have gained at least 350 passing yards. |
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12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +9.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Baltimore 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Ravens plus the points. The NFL season has reached Week 15 and every team is dealing with a multitude of injuries and made worse by the surge in COVID positive test results across the league. The Ravens have lost two straight games and standings have tightened up considerably with 4th place Steelers just 1.5-games behind and Bengals and Browns just one-game behind with four games to play. The Ravens past two losses have been by a combined three points. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback should Lamar not be able to make the start nursing a sprained ankle. You may remember we bet on the Ravens when he first started this season and they won outright. So, I am not basing this pick on the quarterback situation. Packers scored 45 points in their laugher against the Bears, however the Packers are just 3-7 ATS after scoring 44 or more points. Betting on teams using the money line that are coming off two consecutive tough defeats of fewer than seven points each to a divisional foe and taking on an opponent coming off a home win are 22-12 for 65%, but has averaged a sensational +150 underdog bet and has made the Dime Bettor a $22,000 profit. Betting on winning record dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after Week 13 and facing a foe with a win percentage 75% or better and has covered the spread by at least 35 points over their last seven games has earned a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last seven seasons. |
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12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Denver 4-UNIT Bet on the Denver Broncos The last four times these teams collided the results were decided by a total of just nine points. The Bengals defeated the Broncos in their last trip to Mile High Stadium, but had lost the previous 10 games. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner takes a huge forward to securing a playoff spot while the loser takes a plunge into the depths of playoff pretenders. Shout out to Ralph Michaels, who has been giving me some cool shoutouts on the Bet On It show almost weekly now, for the following angle. In a game lined within the 3’s, with one team coming off an ATS win and SU win and with the opponent coming off an ATS loss and SU loss has earned a solid 53-30 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons. Denver is coming off a home 38-10 scrimmage against the Lions, which was their largest home win in seven seasons. The Bengals lost 26-23 as a 1-point dog hosting the 49ers. Denver is the bet. |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Titans vs Steelers 4-Unit OVER full game 1-Unit OVER team total Steelers Here are the quick-hitting bullet points. Tomlin is 11-3 OVER in home games facing an elite team that averages 32 or more minutes of possessions in games played after Week 8. Vrable is 23-9 OVER in the second half of each season he has been the head coach of the Titans. He is also 12-2-1 ATS coming off a game in which he had a turnover margin of +2 or better. JR is running hot and is already 3-1 ATS in the Bowl Games. For the current NFL season his totals have been a highly profitable 68% 19-9-1 with NFL Totals for the season. Plus, you get TWO prop bets as a free bonus. From my predictive models, the OVER is 12-2 when the Titans gain 125 or more rushing yards in games played over the last two seasons. Henry is out and my models did not have Henry in today’s game and there is an 85% they exceed 125 rushing yards. The models also project that both teams will score 20 or more points and the Titans are 14-0 OVER in that situation. |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
Houston vs Jacksonville 4-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars minus the points The dismissal of head coach Urban Meyer gives the Jaguars a deep exhale and can now focus more on the game of football. When a horrid coaching situation is removed from his coach responsibilities the team often finds greater motivation and finds ways to play far better than previous games. I think this is the Jaguars situation and they do have a solid defensive unit that gets after the quarterback. In fact, first game coaches in weeks 11 through the end of the regular season and facing an opponent that has four or fewer wins are 14-9 ATS for 61% and when favored an even better 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets last five seasons. |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 43 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -116 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
Houston vs Jacksonville 8-Unit Bet OVER 2-Unit OVER team total JAX 2-UNIT OVER team total HOU Betting OVER the total lined between 35.5 and 42 points with one of teams getting outrushed by 75 or more yards in their previous game and are getting outrushed by one or more-yards per carry for the season has earned an outstanding 38-28 record for 58% winners and if this team, Houston currently, is on the road, the OVER is 24-11 OVER good for 69% winners over the last 15 seasons and if a road dog, the OVER is 20-10 for 67% winners. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +3 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals 10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points The Cardinals have won all 7 of their road games by double-digits and covered the spread. At home, though, 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Plus, only the Packers had a winning record in these five home games, which the Cardinals lost 24-21 as a 6.5-point home favorite in week 8. The Rams are looking more and more like a NFC Conference finalist. They had lost three games to the spread by a combined total of 53.5 points. They first lost at home to the Tennessee Titans, who are in the thick of the AFC playoff’s top-seed, then back-to-back road losses to divisional foe San Francisco and then the Packers. Granted, it was against the offensively challenged Jacksonville Jaguars, but last week, they righted their ship and won 37-7 and covered as 13-point favorites. My models rank the Rams and New England tied for the best overall team in the NFL. The Rams are fifth overall in total offense, while Arizona is 13th. Arizona ranks 6th in passing while the Rams come in a 11th. The Rams rank 11th with their ground attack, but the Cardinals are a miserable 27th and this is where the monumental advantages are for the Rams tonight. The Rams defense is incredibly good and in my opinion, monumentally underrated. They rank best against the run and pass rush per my models. The Rams will not need to bring any safeties to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and that puts immense pressure on the Arizona passing attack. Aaron Donald (709 snaps) , Jordan Fuller (774 snaps), and Jalen Ramsey (776 snaps) have all played incredibly well and consistent this season. They have the experience too knowing the meaning of this game and their drive to the NFC Championship. Rams head coach McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after having failed to covered the number in two of his last three games. Plus, he is 21-10-1 ATS in road games against NFC conference foes. Betting on road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 of their last four games and is now facing an opponent hat has covered the number in three of their last four games has earned an incredible 27-5-1 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 19-5 ATS over the last three seasons. |
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12-05-21 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks 4:25 PM EST, December 5, 2021 Betting on teams that are in a conference matchup lined between the 3s and is facing an opponent, like Seattle, who has gone UNDER the posted total by a combined 35 or more points in total over their previous five games has earned a 70-33 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bettin on road favorites with a winning record that are facing a host that have lost four of their last five games has earned a 38-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Eli Mitchell had 133 rushing yards last week, his fourth 100+ yard rushing game this year. Ricky Waters back in the 1992 season is last 49er rookies to turn that trick. The ground game for the 49ers has improved monumentally over the recent weeks and I believe it will only continue to get better. The 49wers also sports the best red zone efficiency in the NFL at 77% success rate. They have scored a 24 TDs on 31 trips into the red zone. Deebo Samuel, who has emerged as one of the bigger offensive weapons from multiple positions on the field in the NFL, is expected to be out with a groin injury. Although a significant loss to the dynamic of the 49ers offense, it does not change my opinion on this game in the least. The last time Deebo was out for a game, several players stepped up their contributions. For instance, Trent Sherfield will certainly see more snaps. Seahawks cannot run the ball with any success. For instance, they had five consecutive three-and-out possessions in Week 12 against Washington. A game they should have won, but how could they when they had just 10 first downs and less than 20 minutes of possession. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
Seattle vs Washington 8:20 PM EST, November 29, 2021 The following betting system has earned an insanely profitable 25-5 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record road teams after week 8 that are facing a host after having won two of their three games and has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season. This system is 14-2 ATS over the last five seasons. Pete Carroll is Carroll is 9-1 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in two straight games as the coach of Seattle. He is also 16-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Last, he is 18-5 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle. Seattle has scored 13 points in their last two games, both double-digit losses to the NFC West divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals (23-13) and the Green Bay Packers (17-0). The last time Seattle lost back-to-back games by double digits was in Weeks 8-9 of the 2011 season. Since returning from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has not thrown a touchdown pass for only the second time in his career. He went three consecutive games without a touchdown pass in the 2016 season. In the 2016 season following those three games that Wilson failed to connect on a scoring touchdown, they defeated the Buffalo Bills 31-25 and pushed the line as 6-point home favorites. Going back to the 2000 season, the Seahawks regardless of who was the QB have earned a 7-3-1 ATS record for 70% winning bets. Seattle’s defense has been playing well and ranks second in the NFL with a 19.2 yards per point allowed ratio. This ratio means that an opponent needs to gain 19.2 yards to get one point on the scoreboard. The higher the value the better the defense with numbers approaching and exceeding 20 yards per point representing elite defenses and those ratios approaching 12 or lower representing struggling defensive units. Washington ranks 28th in the NFL with a 13.8 yards per point allowed and I do see the Seattle offense having a big night. The opposite is true on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle ranks 16th with a 15.4 yards per point and Washington is at 23rd with a 16.4 yards per point ratio. Seattle is the better team on both sides of the ball and we are getting a very cheap price at pick-em. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints OVER 45 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Buffalo vs New Orleans 8:20 PM EST, November 25, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet OVER The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. The Bills have lost two of three games, including a shocking 9-6 defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a surprisingly uncompetitive 41-15 drubbing at home to the Indianapolis Colts last week. QB Josh Allen has looked superb noting two games in which he averaged better than 11 yards per pass attempt and four others in which he did not gain more than 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season. The Saints have numerous injuries, especially at the running back position. Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game and replacement Mark Ingram has been solid in his absence, but now is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Trevor Simien has been superb in replacing starting QB Jameis Winston and has thrown seven TDs over his last three games. During their three-game losing streak, the Saints have not started well scoring just 13 first half points and have scored zero points in the first quarter. I fully expect the Saints to get off to a fast start in this matchup against the Bills, who will still be hungover from the stunning and horrid defensive performance last week. Saints are 6-0 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 27 or more points over the last two seasons and 6-0 ATS when competing against a foe that has a solid ground attack gaining an average of 4.5 yards-per-rush in games played over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 70-40 OVER when installed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and the Saints are 40-16 OVER when installed as a underdog of not more than 7 points. From my predictive models I expect both teams to score 20 or more points in this game. Buffalo is 12-0 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which both teams score 20 or more points. |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Tampa Bay Bucs 8:20 PM EST, 11-22-2021 10-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total Well coached NFL teams that were upset in their previous game refocus on the defensive side of the game. Usually, an upset loss is caused by defensive breakdowns in coverage schemes and missed assignments plain and simple. The following NFL betting angle confirms these tendencies. Betting the UNDER in a game between conference foes with one of the teams coming off a double-digit upset loss (team was lined as the favorite) has earned a 166-104-3 record for 62% winning bets. If the double-digit loss occurred on the road the UNDER has earned a 78-29-2 record good for 73% winning bets. Drilling down through the data and adding that the current game is at home and total is not greater than 50.5 points has earned a 42-17 record for 71.2% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Further, if our home team has the better record in the current matchup, then the UNDER is 16-6 for 73% winners. The Giants are on a 7-0 UNDER streak when facing a defense that is allowing a minimum of 61% pass completions in games played in the second-half of each of the last two seasons. Giants are 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Denver 4:25 PM EST, November 14, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet OVER Denver is 10-4 OVER when playing a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The OVER is 7-1 last three seasons when Denver has faced a terrible passing defense that is allowing 64% or higher pass completions in games played after Week 8. From my predictive models we are expecting both teams to score 20 or more points. Eagles are 15-5 OVER where both teams score 20+ points and Denver is a perfect 7-0 in home games where they and their opponent both score 20 or more points. Eagles are 25-11 OVER in road games and averaging between 5.5 and 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons. |
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11-14-21 | Panthers +8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Carolina vs Arizona 4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is completing 64% or more of their passes and is coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt has earned a 52-25 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle works against Arizona and underscores the probability that Arizona will have some form of regression on offense. Betting on road dogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 out of their last four games and facing a host that has covered the number in 3 of their last four games has earned a 38-19 ATS record good for 65.5% winners since 2014 and 10-5 ATS if our highway traveler is a double-digit underdog. From the predictive models, we are looking for the Carolina offense to gain 125 or more rushing yards and for the Carolina defense to force two or more turnovers. In past games when the Panthers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 38-10-1 SU record and a 42-7 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. Perfect 4-0 ATS when installed as a road double-digit underdog. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Minnesota vs LA Chargers 4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Minnesota Vikings Betting on teams after Week 8 and in a game that is priced within 3 points on either side of pick and is coming off a SU loss, but did cover the number has earned a 122-95 ATS record for 56.2% winners. Drilling down further, if our team is on the road, the record improves to 47-20- ATS for 70% winners since 2014. Also, teams like the Vikings that are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and facing a host that is forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after week 8 has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winners since 2017. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Washington 1:00 PM EST, November 14, 2011 10-UNIT Best Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points The Bucs are rolling and with a veteran GOAT Tom Brady at the lead, they will not go into Landover, Md thinking the game is won before it is played. Since Brady arrived the Bucs are 5-1 ATS with the average margin of victory 15.7 points. Once again the Bucs defense is playing well and this is not good news for the Football Team, who has not had multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games, and have had four on the season. Only Houston is worse with give games scoring one or fewer touchdowns. Brady said, "I don't think there's one area we can't be better," and his teammates are focused on responding to that 36-27 loss to the Saints. "Come in and continue to put the work in every day regardless of what the outcome was in the Saints game," safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. "Just to come back here and continue to work because we have a nice stretch ahead of us. Come out here and continue to be better and go out there and win games." When I see statements in the press like these, it immediately reflects the focus the team has to get better – not to win the Super Bowl – the Super Bowl win occurs because the focus all season has been to get better each week. The Bucs lead the NFL in passing offense gaining 327.5 yards per game and scoring at 32.5 PPG. Brady has thrown throwing for 2,650 yards and a league-high 25 touchdowns through eight games. The 44-year-old GOAT, for the first time in his career, has a plethora of playmakers to connect with on the field. Receiver Mike Evans, will be the third-fastest to 70 TDs in NFL history with his next TD catch. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight ends Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate round out the incredible depth the Bucs possess. Betting on road favorites that allow 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a horrid defense allowing at least 27 PPG on the season has earned a 39-16-3 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five season. If our favorite is lined between 4.5 and 11.5 points the record soars to an incredible 21-4 ATS mark for 84% winning bets. From my predictive models one projection stands out and has a high probability of being achieved in the game. Football team is 2-12 ATS in when they have allowed 400 or more total yards in games played over the last three seasons. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
New England vs Carolina 1:00 PM EST, November 7, 2021 5-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points Christian McCaffrey is expected to return from injured reserve this week and is eligible to play in this game. He has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and Carolina is just 1-4 in those games. McCaffrey has missed 18 of the team's past 24 games with injuries, but he is back for this game, and he is rested and healed. I expect him to be on a snap count with Chuba Hubbard, Royce Freeman and Ameer Abdullah to be actively involved in the game plan. Carolina can run different formations with and without McCaffery in the game and I do believe that alone will keep the Patriots guessing and off balance. Zane Gonzalez, who has made 13 of 15 field-goal attempts and 13 of 14 extra points. He was 4 of 4 on field goals last week vs. Atlanta, including a career-long of 57 yards to earn NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors. I like this bet as a 5- UNIT wager even if McCaffery is OUT for this game should there be a mishap in the warmup sessions. This play is far more about the Carolina defense matching up quite well against Mac Jones and the Patriots offense. Carolina ran 47 rushing plays gaining 203 yards in their win against the Falcons in Week 8. The 47 rushing attempts was the fourth-highest single-game total in Panthers history and their highest since 2009. So, with McCaffery back in action, the Panthers will establish the ground attack against the Patriots run defense that ranks 16th in the league. The Panthers have a tremendous pass rush and recorded three sacks last week and shut down a very good statistical QB in Matt Ryan. The Panthers defense ranks 2nd allowing 295.6 yards per game and their secondary is among the best. They rank third allowing just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2nd allowing 188.8 passing yards per game, and 4th with a 7.6% sack percentage. This is a highly profitable money line betting angle that has posted a 35-9 record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the dime bettor a profit of $26,000. Bet on a team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and is coming off a road win over a divisional rival. If our team is playing at home, the record has been 23-6 for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model, we learn that the Panthers are an incredible 54-9-2 ATS for 86% winning bets and 61-4 SU in home games scoring 24 or more points and winning the turnover battle (having fewer turnovers than the opponent) and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons. Bet the Carolina Panthers as a 5- UNIT Best Bet |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans 4:25 PM EST, October 31, 2021 4% bet UNDER the total Betting the Under with road teams that has a defense allowing 60% pass completions and higher and is coming off a gme allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in two straight games has earned a 50-14 UNDER record for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The Saints are 12-3 UNDER coming off a road game and did not cover the spread as a favorite. Form the predictive models, the UNDER is 14-6-1 for 70% winners when they have rushed for 125 or more yards and held their opponent to fewer than 100 yards in games played over the last three seasons. |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers 8:20 PM EST, October 24, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points 49ers coming off the BYE and that is always a good thing for bettors to back knowing that Shanahan is 5-0 ATS coming off three losses. Plus, Colts on a 3 game ats win streak while the 49ers are on a three game ATS losing streak. Teams that are on a 3 or more-game ATS losing streak that are facing a foe on a 3 or more-game ATS win streak are 27-14 for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in a prime time slot, these teams are 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Do not be misled by the Colts win over Houston. The Colts led the Texans by just 16 yards at the half and had a suspect 10-3 lead. Texans fumbled the ball away near midfield leading to a Colts score. Despite the 49ers not having Garoppolo at the helm the 49ers lead the NFL averaging 7.3 yards gain after the catch. They rank 23rd averaging 5.8 air yards per catch, which is the distance form the line of scrimmage to the point on the field where the receiver catches the ball. So, with Garoppolo on the injured list, the offense under Trey Lance was reduced to a dink and dunk scheme. Now, he is back today, the 49ers full offensive playbook will be available, and I believe it will have a high dose of vertical crossing routes. 49ers will be effective with their ground attack, and this opens up play action, which they have run only 51 times this season. They rank 15th in play action pass plays and when Garoppolo is in platy action he becomes so much better. From the predictive models, we learn that San Fran is 9-1 ATS in home games when gaining 250 or yards of total offense and scoring more than 24 points in games played over the last five seasons. |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -117 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
Washington vs Green Bay 1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021 4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets. Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career. |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs -4 v. Titans | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 1 m | Show |
Kansas City vs Tennessee 1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021 4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons. Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game. From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons. |
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10-24-21 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 43 | Top | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
Carolina vs NY Giants 1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021 4-UNIT Bet OVER the Total Carolina is 38-19 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. They are also 34-18 OVER after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored. Despite the large numbers of Giant injuries, the predictive models show a high probability that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points and that puts the final score above the current 42.5-point total pretty easily. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 43 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Seattle vs Pittsburgh 8:20 PM EST, October 17, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total This total has moved 6 points lower since the preseason price was set at 48 points by the West Gate Super Book. The movement is based on the news surrounding the matchup and dominated by the absence of Russell Wilson from the lineup. Even with him out of the game, the models clearly show a high probability that Seattle will be effective on offense and will score points. Pete Carroll is 22-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points for his coaching career at Seattle. He is also 54-33 OVER following a game in which his offense gained six or more yards per play and 33-15 OVER in non-conference matchups. From the predictive models, we learn that the OVER is 11-2 over the last seasons in games that the Steelers gained at least 300 passing yards and gained at least 100 rushing yards. Bet the OVER |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots OVER 50 | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Dallas vs New England 4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts. With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Browns | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Arizona vs Cleveland Week 6 4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries. Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record. From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons. |
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10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Houston vs Indianapolis Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons. From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons. Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Chicago 1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line. The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons. The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements. The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet. |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
Kansas City vs Washington 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season. Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games. Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet |
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10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST, October 10, 2021 10-UNIT Total of the Month OVER the posted total This is my first 10-UNIT play in the NFL and have won a 10-UNIT play on Colorado State +24.5 points, who covered easily by 14 points against Iowa. After trailing the fourth by 11 points, the Giants stormed backed and shocked the Saints in overtime 27-21 and marked the first time since 2011 that they trailed by 10 or more entering the fourth quarter and won the game That is certainly a confidence booster for the entire team, especially the offense as they travel to Dallas in Week 5. The Cowboys, mostly done my Prescott, have thrown at least one TD in each of their last 26 home games and is the longest streak in franchise history. The struggling Steelers hold the current streak with 32 games and throwing for at least one TD, which is shocking. Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards and was his first 400+ passing game and the first since Eli Manning threw for 434 in the 2017season. The offensive line did a great job giving Jones time to scan the field allowing no sacks to the Saints. In fact, it was the first game this season in which neither team recorded a sack. Dallas is 22-9 OVER in home games after outrushing their opponent by 100 or more yards in their previous game and 39-17 OVER in home games after outrushing an opponent by 75 or more yards. Dallas I on a 6-0 OVER streak installed as a home favorite; 27-12 OVER in home tilts and on a 3 or more game win streak. Head coach McCarthy is 15-3 OVER in a home game after scoring 35 or more points for his career. From the predictive side of things, my models show a high probability that Dallas will score at least 27 points and gain at least 400 total offensive yards. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 10-2 OVER record for 83.3% winning bets spanning the past three seasons; 16-4 OVER for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers 8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995. Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most. Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons. LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points. From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons. |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay vs New England 4% Best Bet on the UNDER Betting UNDER in a matchup of streaks has paid off well over the past 10 seasons. Betting UNDER with a road team on a three or more-game OVER streak (Bucs) and being hosted by a team that is on a 3 or more-game UNDER streak has seem the UNDER go 21-11 over the past 10 seasons. Betting UNDER where the home team is coming off a double-digit upset loss has earned an 72-27-1 record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if that upset loss was by 14 or more points, then the UNDER improves to 46-15-1 for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Green Bay 4:25 PM EST, October 3, 2021 4% Best Bet on the UNDER I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game with any team regardless of home or away (Steelers) that are coming off an embarrassing double-digit loss to a divisional foe and has a win percentage of 20 to 40% on the season has earned a 38-9-1 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle has earned a 9-2 UNDER record spanning the past three seasons. Steelers head coach Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER facing a suspect defense that is allowing 28 or more PPG in games played over the past three seasons. Steelers are 22-7 UNDER for 75% in a road game and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle vs San Francisco 4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet. From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 54.5 | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Kansas City vs Philadelphia 1:00 PM EST, October 3, 2021 4% Best Bet on the OVER This will be the first time that former Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be back at the Lincoln Financial Field. His Chiefs have lost 2 straight games and have not lost three straight since the 2017 season, in which Alex Smith was then benched in favor of Mahomes. Chiefs defense is allowing 31.7 PPG and the Eagles offense is young, but very gifted with elite vertical speed. KC defense has not been able to mount any sort of pass rush and now face a quick QB in Hurts, who can easily extend plays making the Chiefs secondary even more vulnerable to the deep routes. I think the game plan for the Chiefs will be simply to put more points on the scoreboard than the Eagles and get into a big-time shootout. Betting the OVER with any team coming off a divisional matchup loss and facing a team that is coming off a road loss to a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 55-23 record for 71% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. Eagles are on a 9-1 OVER streak when facing a poor defense that is allowing 5 or more rushing yards per game. Chiefs are 10-2 OVER in road games off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional foe. |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Tennessee vs NY Jets 1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line. Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons. The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Carolina vs Dallas 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 3, 2021 8-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER 2-Unit Best Bet OVER Carolina team TOTAL 2-UNIT Best Bet OVER Dallas team TOTAL Betting the OVER in the first four weeks of the regular season with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a double-digit win over a divisional rival has earned a 25-11 OVER record for 69.5% winning bets over the past five seasons. In games with a total of 50 or more points, the OVER is 7-2 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons. No doubt, the loss of McCaffrey is monumental, but we have seen a rejuvenated Sam Darnold lead the offense with his arm and also his legs scoring two rushing TDs in their win over the Texans last Thursday. Of course, Dallas is much better than the Texans, but Dallas secondary is very suspect and Darnold will use play action often to free the linebackers and have time to scan the field for the best situation. So, I see Carolina scoring points and like playing OVER their team total of 22.5 points and OVER Dallas team points at 27.5 points at even money. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Philadelphia vs Dallas 8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win. From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 54.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Seattle vs Minnesota 4:25 PM EST, September 26, 2021 4% Best Bet UNDER Betting the UNDER with any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, as is Seattle, and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more point has earned a highly profitable 32-9 UNDER record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. 24 of the 31 winning bets went UNDER by an average of 7 or more points. An alternative strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size for a 4% play and then look to add 25% more at 59.5 points and 62.5 points, BUT ONLY if this occurs in the first half of the game. Bet the UNDER for a 4% Best Bet Ryan is the reigning No. 1 ranked NFL professional hitting 65.8% ATS for the 2020 season. This 4% (4-Unit) Total is reinforced by an 79% wining situational angle and LIVE in GAME betting strategy that Ryan will be executing during this late afternoon game. |
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09-26-21 | Chargers v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
LA Chargers vs Kansas City 1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021 4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth. Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack. The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense). The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce. The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons. From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points. |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8.5 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Arizona vs Jacksonville 1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021 4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line. Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak. Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons. |
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09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021 4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
Chicago vs Cleveland 1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021 8-UNIT Best bet on the OVER Betting on the OVER with any team, like Cleveland, who is coming off a win in which they did not cover the spread and now facing an opponent, who is coming off a home win has earned a highly profitable 44-9 OVER record good for 83% winning bets over the past five seasons. 27 of the 44 winning bets went over the total by a minimum of 7 points. From the predictive models, Cleveland is expected to gain at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games in which Cleveland gained 6 or more YPPL, the OVER has 10-1 for 91% winning bets over the last three seasons. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in games in which the Chicago defense allowed 6 or more YPPL over the last three seasons. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Dallas vs LA Chargers 4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021 5% Best Bet on the Chargers I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade. The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon. Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup. Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts. From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons! |
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09-19-21 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Philadelphia 1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021 4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points Overview A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact. The Numbers Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets. From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
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09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Miami 4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line. Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven. Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons. |
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09-19-21 | Rams v. Colts +4 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colts and take the points Betting on underdogs that were solid passing teams last season averaging 250 or more PYPG and are coming off a game where they defense was diced up for more than 7 yards per pass attempt has earned a 30-5 ATS 86% record over the last 10 seasons. From the predictive models, the Colts are expected to score 28 or more points and have at least 125 rushing yards. NFL teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 310-56 ATS record over the last five seasons and the Colts dressed in this role are 9-1 ATS. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Baltimore vs Las Vegas Week 1 8:15 PM EST, Monday, September 13, 2021 4% best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points A few quick-hitters. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a solid 23-11 ATS in games with a total of 46 or more points. He is 18-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the regular season. From the predictive models, Baltimore is expected to gain well over 125 rushing yards and would not be at all surprised if they gained over 200 tonight. Baltimore is 86-27-1 ATS in games gaining at least 125 rushing yards. They are 9-1 ATS over the last three seasons in games they averaged 5.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS over the last three seasons in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards. Bet Baltimore for a 4-Unit Best Bet |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Chicago vs LA Rams 8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 12, 2021 10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total I will make this short and sweet. The predictive models and applications expect the Rams to gain 380 or more yards and produce a 12.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio. The OVER is 12-4 spanning the last five seasons when the Rams have had a YPPT ratio of 12.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 for 80% when the Bears defense has allowed an opponent a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio. Home teams that have had a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio and gained 380 or more total yards are 91-15-1 OVER for 86% winning bets over the last five seasons and covered the total by an average of 15 points! Bet the OVER for a 10-UNIT Best Bet |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Super Bowl LV 6:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 points and a little sprinkle on the money line too. The KC offense is one of the best anyone has seen in at least the last decade, but when you break down the game film, they are a two dimensional one. They have TE Kelce and WR Hill and they complement one another perfectly. If a defense looks to take away the post routes to Hill, then Mahomes will throw underneath to Kelce and vice-versa. The Bucs defense, especially the linebackers are some of the best and quickest in the NFL. That unit will make things far more difficult for Mahomes in this matchup. BUCS DEFENSE VS CHIEFS DEFENSE By comparison, the Chiefs defense is somewhat pedestrian and ranks in the middle third of many defensive performance measures. They rank ninth with a 35.7% blitz percentage but going up against the best offensive line in the NFL that is 100% healthy too. KC defense ranks 15th with 55 QB hurries and 19th with just 32 sacks on the season. Plus, the Tampa Bay OL has allowed a sack on just 3.3% of all plays during the regular season. Offensively, these two teams are near equaled overall, but the largest difference is that the Bucs defense is vastly better than the Chiefs. Where the Chiefs defense will be most vulnerable is on second downs. The Bucs run the ball a high percentage of the time on first downs and getting three to five yards then sets up the play-action pass play. Brady is one of the all-time greats with the fake to the running back that freezes even the best All-Pro linebackers. For the season, he has thrown 110 passes for 1,119 passing yards out of the play-action set. Brady through over the top with great success against New Orleans and Green Bay and it will be highly effective in this matchup too. The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards-per-play, which also matches the league average. The Bucs are 8-1 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 5.65 or more yards-per-play on the season. The Chiefs rank 6th gaining 6.3 yards-per-play this season, but the Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS facing excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play this season. The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in games played with a total ranging between 40 and 49.5 points this season. A HIGHLY PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEM FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS MY SUPER BOWL PROP BETS Bet the Bucs -10.5 points +650 |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 20 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
Brady passed for 189 yards in last week’s road win over the Saints. In playoff games he is 28-18 UNDER for 61% winning bets following a playoff game in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards. Now, combine the UNDER with the BUCS using the money line to bet a parlay and also consider a reverse action parlay. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay 3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021 The line for this NFC Championship game opened with Green Bay priced as a 3-point home favorite and the public bettor has been largely attracted to bet Green Bay accounting for 71% of the best made as of Wednesday. I fully expect this trend to continue, but the line may not move above 3.5 unless there is new news. I am planning on waiting till Friday to place 50% of my 5% bet size Friday at the market price and then prepare to add 25% more about an hour before game time. The remaining 25% will be used for in-game live betting at a price of +7.5-points. I will be tweeting LIVE in-game bets so make certain you are following me. Betting on road teams after week 8 including the playoffs, that make few mistakes averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game (TPG) and have posted four consecutive games committing no more than a single turnover in each game, and now facing an opponent that is also takes great of the football averaging 1.25 TPG has earned a 36-25 SU record and a 37-22-2 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last ten seasons. The following results is a subset variation of the previous system and requires us to bet on road teams in game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer TPG and with the host coming off a game in which their defense did not face a turnover. This subset has earned a 41-28 record and 47-20-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 4-2 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points. My opponent-adjusted power ratings have the Packers as the best team in the NFL, Tampa Bay second, then the Buffalo Bills at 4th, and the Chiefs a distant ninth. So, placing a futures bet on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl and a matchup bet that the Bills and Bucs will be the Super Bowl teams is a great opportunity. The Bucs have a significant advantage running the ball against the Packers defensive line. The single-most powerful situation for Brady over his entire career has been using play-action pass and having an extra two seconds or more to scan the field and complete high-percentage routes in space. Once the Bucs force the Packers to bring a safety up to the line-of-scrimmage the play-action pass will highly effective and the dominant reason the Bucs win and advance to the Super Bowl. From the machine learning applications we learn that the Bucs are 14-7 SU and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when scoring 24 or more points and averaging at least 6.3 yards-per-play. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
TAMPA BAY VS NEW ORLEANS This is the third time that these divisional rivals will face each other this season. The road teams are 10-11 SU, and 15-8 ATS for 62% winning bets in the NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round last week, the Browns and Rams were in this role and both won SU against their divisional rivals. Teams meeting for the third time that have a higher yards-per-play ratio than the opponent are 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS for 62% winning bets. The Bucs have averaged 6.0 YPPL ranking 7th-best in the NFL and the Saints have avered 5.8 YPPL ranking 11th-best in the NFL. Betting on road teams in a game in which they and their host are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game and with the host coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 44-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five regular and playoff seasons. The Saints under head coach Sean Payton are 0-6 ATS in home regular season and playoff games spanning the last three seasons. Drilling a bit deeper, Sean Payton in home playoff games facing an opponent with a winning record is 6-2 SU, BUT 2-6 ATS. From the machine learning applications, the Bucs are projected to score 27 or more points and average a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass attempt. In past playoff games, road teams that have met or exceeded this par of measures have earned an incredible 25-7 SU record and a 28-2-2 ATS record good for 93% winning bets and that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points. Road teams during the regular and playoff seasons that are playing with double-revenge, scoring 27 or more points, and averaging 7 or more YPPA, have earned an 85-27 SU record and 98-9-5 ATS record goods for 92% winning bets. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens Vs Tennessee Titans Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN 1:05 PM EST January 10, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens Here are a few quick hitters: Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in road games facing a solid passing team that has completed 62% of their pass attempts on the season in games played over the last three seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in road games facing a solid offense gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass in games played over the last three seasons. Baltimore’s season hit rock bottom in a Week 12, 19-14 loss at Division rival Pittsburgh and from there on out to the end of the regular season Baltimore has made improvements in each week. They are peaking at exactly the right time coming off 38-3 win at Cincinnati in which they posted many season-highs across the offensive efficiency metrics. The Titans gained the most passing yards (1541) and ranked third in the NFL running a total of 174 play action pass plays. They have an outstanding ground attack led by Henry and the Ravens will look to confuse the gap blocking reads of the Titans offensive line with late pre-snap personnel movements. The Ravens have increased these adjustments whenever the play clock is under 10 seconds. The Ravens blitz a league-low 115 times because they were getting enough pressures and QB hits rushing just four linemen. The Ravens do not need to bring a safety to reinforce the run-defense and in turn makes play action nearly useless for the Titans. The Titans may counter this advantage for the Ravens by placing Tannehill in the shot-gun. Playoff teams like the favorable situation the Ravens are in, that are on a 6 or more game ATS win streak with 11 or more wins and in playoff games are 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. |
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01-09-21 | Colts +6.5 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
NFL 2020-21 Wild Card Playoff Round Bill Stadium, Orchard Park, NY 1:05 PM EST, January 9th, 2021 5% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +6.5-points and sprinkle a bit extra on the money line. Some of you may like the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and if you do, I have a strong recommendation for you. The current futures line is 35:1 that the Colts win the Super Bowl. However, you will make more money if you bet the Colts using the money line in each game alog the way tow a potential Championship. So, I suggest playing this game with 75% on the line and then 30% using the money line. If you do like the Colts to go all the way, the bet a 25% amount of your 4% wager using the futures line, and then 30% using the money line in each game moving forward. Future Hall-of-Famer and 17-year veteran Philip Rivers adopted quickly and quit ewell to Colts head coach Frank Reich’s offensive scheme and proved that last seasons’ 19 interceptions thrown was an outlier. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles Championship run in 2017. He looks like a genious now, having left for this position, the day after the Eagles Super Bowl win. Rivers’ and Reich’s playoff experience is a monumental advantage in this matchup against a Bills franchise playing in their first playoff as a favorite since the losss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites in 1996. The ket matchup for the Colts odffense is between Rivers and the Buffalo secondary featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White. For the majority of the regular season, the Colts knick was that they did have a ground attack strong enough to be respected by opponents defense units. Not the case now as the Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game for the season and a monster 175.6 RYPG over their last three games that was good enough to rank third-best in the NFL. So, the Colts will be successful on the ground and force the Bills to bring a safety to the line-of scrimmage. When Rivers sees this scheme, he will look to use play-action and use seem and post routes knowing his receivers will be in man-coverage. The Colts defense was quite good throughout the 2020 season and the Bills will struggle to run the ball. Although the Bills with Josh Allen are a pass-happy unit, forcing him to throw more than he is used to, will make ti very tough to move the chains into scoring opportunities. HC Reich is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games having won two of the last three games. Reich is 16-5 ATS facing solid offensive units that average 350 or more total yards-per-game. My machine learning tools reveal that the Colts are a highly profitable 15-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS in road games holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushingn yards and gaining a total of 300 or more total yards in games played over the last ten seasons. Under the same projections, the Bills are just 4-12 SU and ATS in home games over the last ten seasons. Home playoff teams that fail to gain 100 rushing yards and allow 300 or more total yards are 14-13 SU, BUT a money-losing 7-19-1 ATS in playoff games played over the last ten seasons. |
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12-26-20 | 49ers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals 4:30 PM EST, December 26, 2020. 4% Best bet on the San Francisco 49ers +6 points and sprinkle a little on the money line. CJ Beathard is starting for the 49ers and this is his audition to make an impression prior to him becoming a free agent in two weeks. I strongly believe he will play well and has the potential to win the game outright. Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a solid 48-20-4 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to play on road dogs facing a host that have a miserable turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game in games played since the start of the 2016 season. The machine learning tools project that the 49ers will score a minimum of 24 points and gain at least 4.0 yards-per-rush. In past road games in which the 49ers met these performance measures has earned them a 55-17-2 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2016. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints 4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day 4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints. Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season. Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons. From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals +14.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals 4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points. I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points. Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990. Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season. Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite. |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Arizona vs Philadelphia 4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points. From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons. Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game. Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006. The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio 4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles. Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes. Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes. This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored. Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
New England vs LA Rams 4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line. Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond. This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG. The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick. The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points. Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too. |
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12-06-20 | Broncos +13.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Denver vs Kansas City There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs. Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points. Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons. Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know. |
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12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -4 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans 4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points. The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes. The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG. This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season. The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures. |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers 5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points. My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one. The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points. The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations. Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan J |
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11-26-20 | Texans -3 v. Lions | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions 4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points. Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets. Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points. Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Week 11 I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for both teams to score at least 24 points. Further, both teasm will average a minimum of 5.5 yards-play. In past games in which both teasm averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play has led to an outstanding 850-220-24 for 79% winning bets on the ‘OVER’ since 2006. The Rams are 32-6 ‘OVER’ and 21-7 ‘OVER’ in games they played in and had both them and the opponent gain 5.5 or more yards-per-play. This betting system has earned a 25-7 ‘OVER’ record good for 78% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are to bet ‘OVER’ the posted total between 43 and 50 points in the second half of the season with a team that is averaging between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards-per-attempt, coming off a previous game in which they averaged eight or more PYPA and now facing an opponent, whose defense has allowed between 5.3 to 5.9 PYPA. This system has hit 80% on an 8-2 record over the last five seasons. |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts -1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Week 11 I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010. The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game. Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line. |
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11-22-20 | Dolphins v. Broncos +4 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Week 11 4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career. Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance. Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome. Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season. Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line. |
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11-22-20 | Titans v. Ravens -5.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens 4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens
The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000. |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Week 9 New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs 5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations. The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes. Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career. The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers 8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020 4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet. The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season. The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack. RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average. My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005. Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight. |
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11-01-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo 4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements. 1. Bet on any team regardless of the betting line. 2. Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL). 3. Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL. 4. Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards. Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career. Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers. The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes. My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures. |
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10-26-20 | Bears +6 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams 10-Star NFL Game of the Month The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina. My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team. The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles. The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns. The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless. The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.
Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games. From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points. Take the Bears and the points.
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders +4.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders 4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE. The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points. |
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10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans +3 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Houston 4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades. When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2. Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points. |
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10-25-20 | Browns v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals 4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season. The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover. The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns. There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons. Bet on any team on the money line when: 1. The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush. 2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards. From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010. |
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10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles 8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020 The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place. Are the Eagles the Best of the Worst?In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now. The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday. Injuries Ravage the EaglesThe Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal. The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup. The Value of the Short WeekA scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers. Turnovers will determine the GameThis betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system. 1. Bet on road teams. 2. The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each. 3. The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers. When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. The New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick:The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet. |
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10-18-20 | Broncos +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots. This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin. The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense. Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing. The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points. |
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10-18-20 | Bears +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020 7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch. DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week. The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers. |
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10-18-20 | Falcons +4 v. Vikings | Top | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring. 1. Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 2. Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game. 3. The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game. The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements. 1. Bet on underdogs, including pick-em. 2. The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game. 3. The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers. 4. The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover. The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game. The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game. |