Under 207 5.5* NBA POD

Cavs +1.5 4.4* NBA POD

Bucks +3.5 4.4* NBA POD

I had the Bucks the other night and we lost by 1 point ATS.  I pointed out how in game 1 they could not have played worse and they picked up their defense big time in game 2 holding the Bulls to just 11 points to start the first quarter.  In the end their offense struggled because of it and they shot 35.6% from the field were at a 10 FTA disadvantage and 16 rebound disadvantage.  They also gave up 12 three's in the game to the Bulls.  I just don't see them playing that poorly for all 4 quarters again and in fact I think they'll win this game.   

Bucks +8 4.4* NBA POD

In my opinion the Bucks could have not played a worse game to start the series and that could have happened for a variety of reasons.  They still only lost by 12 points despite shooting 39% from the field, 25% from beyond the arch and 65% from the foul line.  I believe the Bucks bench really takes over this game tonight and I fully expect them to be in down to the wire.  The Bulls looked great, but I don't anticipate Derek Rose being that good in the second game in a row.  The Bulls scored 60 points in the first half and that's just not typical as I expect the Bucks to rebound here in a big way led by some of their guys off the bench.

Pelicans +12.5 4.4* NBA POD

The early money has pushed this spread 2.5 points from where it opened and I just don't see the oddsmakers being off by that much when predicting the market on this game.  I think the Pelicans have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while the Warriors had their seed clinched weeks ago.  I also think it's difficult for the Warriors to cover this number without shooting extremely well from beyond the arch and the Pelicans were ranked 2nd in the league in 3 point defense.  They also have arguably the best player in basketball and certainly the best big man in Anthony Davis.  Davis is a match up nightmare for the Warriors as he proved by averaging just under 30 points 13 rebounds and 4 blocks vs. the Warriors in the regular season. I think the health and return of Jrue Holliday will make the difference as New Orleans keeps this game close throughout. 

Pacers/Pistons U193 3.3* play

I don't see the Pistons giving much effort in this one and they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league on any given night.  The Pacers are still trying to get into the playoffs so I expect their defense to be playing at its highest level which it has of late.  Pacers trail the 8th and final spot by one game and this is a high total for them.  I also like the fact that the Pistons have gone over in their last 2 so their offense is due to be shut down by one of the leagues best defenses. 

[b]Bulls/Heat Under 191.5 3.3* play[/b]

A lot on the line here for both teams and most of the meetings previously went under the number they are setting here tonight.  With playoff implications like the Bulls playing for home court I believe we will see a defensive intensity here.  I'll take the under. 

[b]Charlotte/Miami U189.5 3.3* play[/b]

Both teams are trailing the Celtics by 1 and 1.5 games for the final spot in the east and I believe the defensive intensity is going to be high for this meeting.  The recent history between the Heat and Charlotte have been defensive oriented as well with an average of 175.3 pts per game this season so I think we get great value at 189.5 especially with playoffs on the mind of both teams. 

[b]SUNS +13 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will back the Suns here knowing they are a desperate team right now that can not lose meanwhile the Warriors have the #1 seed locked up.  The Warriors have covered 8 of their last 10 which I feel is a good reason for Vegas to raise the price to play them, but this team may start to take it easy now as far as intensity goes while the Suns should be laying it all out to win this game which I believe they will have a shot at in the end.  

Portland Blazers -2 3.3* NBA POD

Grabbing this line early here I just think Portland is in a better spot in this game.  First of all Miami comes in after a huge emotional win over a hot Cleveland team and now they have to face a very good Blazers team.  I think we see a line that is a couple of points off in this one and while Portland has the #4 2 point defense, Miami has the 22nd defense.  In fact they are below average vs. 3 point shooting also ranking 22nd.  Portland is 7-1 straight up vs. teams in the bottom 10 in the league in both.  Miami meanwhile who shoots 70% + shots from inside the arch are 1-8-1 ATS vs. the top 5 team in the NBA in 2 point defense and went 2-8 straight up. 

[b]NETS -145 4* NBA POD[/b]

I'm willing to pay a premium here on the line to get back into the win column.  I'll be back later today with our NCAAB POD as well as we continue to be selective until the NCAA Tournament kicks off.  This is New Orleans 4th game in 5 nights and they are coming off a couple of big wins while the Nets are very well rested.  The Pelicans are also short without Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holliday which I feel will be a big factor down the stretch which is where the Nets have been struggling, but tonight they will have rest on their side. 

4.4* NBA POD on Nets -1.5

Minnesota Twolves +4.5 3.3* NBA POD
Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous 2 were against playoff teams. Now they have to face the Twolves who lets be honest is not on their radar. On deck is the Houston Rockets who are tied with them in the West playoff picture. I expect a little look a head and a spot for Portland to relax just a bit too much as Minnesota can beat good teams especially at home.

Wizards -1 3.3* NBA POD

Pacers +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I have been very conservative this year in NBA betting, but when I see an opportunity I like I jump all over it.  The Cavs are red hot winning 18 of 20 and they are off their biggest win of the season a big 110-99 at home against the leagues best team, the Golden State Warriors.  This is a great let down spot for this team while they are also playing in their 5th game in 8 days.

The Pacers are definitely having a tough time this year but they are playing their best basketball.  They have also beaten the Warriors and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 while their only 2 losses came against the Spurs and the Thunder. 

Cal +7 3.3* pod Bulls +3.3* play

[b]Celtics +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks after such a great first half they will finally get a chance to relax for a bit after they face the Celtics on the road.  With that on the horizon they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and it's another on the road.  Granted they are 21-6 ATS this season on 1 days rest something has got to give.  Boston will be far more rested here with 3+ days off and I think the energy will show as they really have nothing else to prepare for with a week off after this game. 

[b]Memphis Grizzlies -133 4.5* NBA POD[/b]

I'm taking the Grizzlies to defeat the Atlanta Hawks.  The Grizzlies are off a bad loss while the Atlanta Hawks just got done beating the Warriors at home in an exciting show down.  It's hard to see them not having any type of a let down after that game while the Grizzlies are still a tough defensive team that rarely loses in these type of moments.  I'm expecting a double digit win, but given our poor luck in losing games ATS by 1-2 points of late we will be taking the Grizzlies money line here today.  

Clippers -1 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Wizards +6 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will take Washington here as the Hawks finally ended their historic winning streak in New Orleans a day ago and now they are playing their 4th game in 6 nights traveling back home for this one.  Washington meanwhile has lost 3 straight and is desperate for a win and playing a big time game against Atlanta could be exactly what this team needs.  After all they did get smacked by the Hawks by 31 points the last time and allowed over 50% from three point land.  I just don't see that happening or John Wall and Bradley Beal turning the ball over 10+ times like they did in the first match up.  The last match up was a tough spot for Washington after they just beat down the Bulls with the Spurs up next this time it's a tough spot for Atlanta with Golden State, the leagues best team coming in next.  I expect a let down here especially after their winning streak. It's like when pitcher finally gives up the hit in the 8th inning of his no hit or perfect game.  Typically the flood gates open and hits come in volume.  I expect the Hawks to go on a bit of a losing streak from here.  

[b]Bulls +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

We are getting some value here on the under dog after a 3 point line move.  Chicago has been very good on the road this year going 17-7 and they have been very good following a loss going 14-4 this year.  Phoenix also caught in a spot where they could be looking ahead to the Warriors and Grizzlies who are in their conference and play on Saturday and Monday night.  The concern with the Bulls is back to back OT games and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is a tough team and the fact that they rebound well and defend the paint gives me plenty of confidence.  

NETS +14 3.3* NBA POD

[b]76ers +15 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans playing in their 6th game in 9 days.  They get the lowly 76ers, and I doubt they are going to be up to dominate this game and win by 16 points or more.  Pelicans also just came off a huge upset win at home over Dallas on Sunday which sets them up for a potential let down spot.  The 76ers meanwhile come in on 1 days rest after losing 83-101 as 17.5 point dog vs. Memphis.  However, the day of rest and the value we are getting here is too much to pass up considering the situation.  The Pelicans also are without Jrue Holliday and already lost on the road to the 76ers as a 7 point favorite.  Since when is home court worth 8 points in the NBA?  

[b]Pacers -125 4* NBA POD[/b]

Both of these teams are struggling, but the Pacers get George Hill back who is an intricate part of this team over the years.  There is no doubt their offense will improve with him back on the court.  Orlando is just a bad bad team as they are ranking 20th in 2 point %, but even worse when playing at home, while also ranking 27th in 2 point defense and 26th in rebounding %.  Those 3 categories are what I call the core of the game.  On any given day anyone can get hot, but statistically speaking the odds are against them here.  Indiana is worse in 2 point offense, but I believe that improves with Hill's ability to find guys open looks and their defense is still one of the best ranking 7th in 2 point defense.  Orlando is 4-11 vs. top 10 2 point defensive teams this year.  Indiana is also 6th in rebounding rate and Orlando is 6-13 vs. top 10 rebounding teams.  

Bucks +2.5 3.3* NBA POD

76ers +16.5 3.3* NBA POD

16.5 points is a lot of points to lay even though the 76ers typically are up to the task, but they come off a double digit home loss where they are 10-3 ATS following such a scenario.  They also have some decent wins of late and have won 3 of their last 5 while the Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6.  The Raptors also have a bigger game ahead of them in Atlanta. Toronto also has not played good enough defense for me to back them as such a favorite ranking 23rd in opponent shooting %, Philadelphia ranks 21st and 25th in 2 point % where Philadelphia will take 75% of their shots on Wednesday night.

Bulls +1.5 3.3* NBA POD

I will go with the Bulls here considering they are coming off a 20 point loss to the Jazz and I know Coach Tom Thibodeau is an excellent coach who preaches defense first and will want to rebound in a hurry and going up against a very good playoff team like the Wizards will be an excellent way of forgetting the embarrassment from their last game.  Meanwhile the Wizards just won over the Knicks by 10, but the Knicks are the worst team in the league and were playing withouth Anthony Soutdemire and JR Smith.

Pacers +11.5 3.3* NBA POD

I like Indiana here tonight getting 11.5 points as they are 8-2 ATS as a dog of 8+ points this year and 13-4-1 ATS on 1 days rest.  The Warriors have been red hot beating some very good teams in impressive fashion winning by ATS margins of 22.5, 16.5, and 22.5 so Vegas has been pretty far off.  They are still getting the majority of the money here tonight, but I think we will see an inspired performance from the Pacers facing off a team that is now the #1 defense in the league in the Warriors which is something the Pacers were very proud of in years past.  

JAZZ +3 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Heat +5.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I have been nearly perfect in this series and I'll go with the road dog again.  I think the Heat have a lot more fight left in them and the last two games definitely drove up the price to back the Spurs at home.  I'll take that added value and I think the Heat will play their hearts out and be in position to win the game down the stretch.. Right now the Miami locker room has got to be using the "no team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit" to their advantage.  Lebron James is still the best player and while I faded his team at home in back to back games I just think this team is too good to just lay down especially after getting embarrassed in back to back games on their own court.  Expect them to bounce back here and perhaps win the game.

Spurs +5 4.4* NBA POD
I like the Spurs here again as I just don't see how they are bigger under dogs on the Heat's court than they were favorites in San Antonio.  When you look at the series the Spurs could easily be up 3-0 if it weren't for San Antonio missing FT's down the stretch in game 2.. I think as this series continues the depth of the Spurs continues to be the factor and major advantage for them.  Miami Heat just can't score with the Spurs and San Antonio is also a better defensive and rebounding team too!  I expect another game to come down to the wire as the Heat are 11-0 in their last 11 games following a loss in the playoffs.  The Spurs are well aware of this and well aware of how they let the Heat back in the series a season ago.

Spurs +5 5.5* NBA POD
I really think the road favorite is going to have the advantage all series long especially if it's a critical game which it is for the Spurs.  Each game is going to come down to the last few possessions and I believe at 5 points the value is right on San Antonio after a few days off.  I think this Spurs team is hungry and they know they could be up 2-0 at this point but missed FT's hurt them bad.  I expect them to bounce back in a big way.  This line just moved 9 points in 1 game and I don't think home court is worththa t much.  The Spurs continue to play well in the east going 40-18-1 ATS int heir last 59 vs. the Southeast

Heat +4.5 5.5* NBA pod 

I've got to take the heat in the game as a max play of the day I really feel like the key players are going to convince themselves that the Spurs turn the AC off on purpose even heard LeBron saying down the stretch that that's what they were trying to do even though I'm sure did down they don't believe that bottle use that as motivation in this game to which is a critical game for the heat if they want to make it three straight NBA titles.  The heater also great coming off straight up loss of more than 10 points going 23 and nine against the spread over the last 32 I really feel like the Spurs with one eight in a row at home against spread this playoffs are due to slip up here.  Not to mention the fact that both these teams are pretty similar to last years teams that fought in the NBA finals and the heat were actually one point favorites so this is giving us five points differential to work with I think this line has a lot of value as I said in game one.  Game one also proved that the heat are not going to go away the lead late night game before LeBron went out with four minutes to go which he cramps and then the Spurs going on 16 to 3 run LeBron will hold a grudge against that and call me when this game himself if he has to.

Heat +5 4.4* NBA POD
The Heat are 5 point under dogs?  I want to believe that the Spurs are going to win this series, but I think 5 points is too many.  The Spurs were -3.5 point favorites in the regular season and the Heat were 1 point favorites in San Antonio a year ago.  Honestly what has changed?  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Heat because the public and sharps are pushing this number up, but the Heat are at their best with extra time off.  I think we will see a battle in tonight's game that will come down to the last shot.  The refs tend to favor the road dog and at 5 points I just see all the value being on the Heat which is a rare thing.

Thunder +5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Thunder are 6-0 this year against the Spurs with Ibaka in the lineup and 0-2 without him.  They held the spurs to under 40% shooting in back to back games at home and turned the series around with Ibaka in the line up.  I'm not saying the Thunder are going to win the game outright, but this is going to be another battle and I still think Kevin Durant is capable and will take over this series.  The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Spurs and they just match up well when they have the big guy protecting the paint.

[b]PACERS +6 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I think this is a generous amount of points for a defense like the Pacers to be getting especially given how well they played early in game 3.  This is a great team when it comes to playing following a loss in the playoffs and now following two losses I think they come up with a big effort that I would not be shocked if they actually tied this series up.  Miami shot 10-18 from 3 and if it weren't for Ray Allen's success in the 4th from 3 I think the Heat could be down in this series.. I look for the Pacers to make the necessary adjustments here and like I said before this team can match up with the Heat better than any.

Thunder -135 4.5* NBA POD

Pacers +6.5 4.4* NBA POD
I was on the Pacers in game 1 and the Heat ML for game #2 and I'm back riding the Pacers as this seems to be a series that will go back and forth.  First of all the Pacers are 11- and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 playoff games following a loss which includes 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Heat last year.  Pacers did not play very well in game 1 yet they were up 4 late before Paul George got hit in the head by Wades knee.  The Heat went on a 13-2 run and took over the ball game.  George has passed all the tests for concussion related symptoms and should play.  This is a very competitive series and as I said in game 1 I just think the Pacers match up extremely well defensively vs. the Heat.

Thunder +5.5 3.3* NBA POD
The Spurs had a ton of time to prepare and get fresh against the Thunder and it clearly showed in their blow out victory, but the oddsmakers have not budged on the line.  The Thunder are without Ibaka but they have enough depth to push the Spurs at home.  After all the Mavericks did.  Spurs also will be on shorter rest here which could play a factor, but most of all I don't see the Spurs shooting 57% again against a top 5 defense like the Thunder in what is a huge game.

[b]Heat -130 5.5* NBA POD[/b]
I don't see the Pacers going up 2-0 on the Heat right now I just don't think the team has fully rebounded from their earlier playoff struggles.  Pacers are just too inconsistent to back here in this spot as Miami will get to the FT line more tonight and take less three pointers if they have to.. Miami shot well just not from 3 where they shot 26% compared with Indiana who shot 42% they also got to the FT line 22 fewer times.  Miami is 26-11a TS in their last 37 times facing a team with revenge after the same season loss.

]Pacers +3 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
Value play here as the Pacers have not had a strong post season, but they have won when they needed to and won 3 of their last 4 games.  They really look like they have turned it around and I think no team gives the Heat more issues than the Pacers with Lance Stephenson guarding either Lebron or Wade and George defending the other.. I think it's going to be a great match up that comes down to the wire.  Indiana was a great home team and against the Heat they won both games as a favorite -2 and -3.5 vs. the Heat now we are getting over 5 points to play with because of how the Pacers played down the stretch.  They had two challenging match ups to start the playoffs and the oddsmakers know they can get a ton of public action on the Heat at this number. This is a perfect fade the public spot to be in.

[b]PACERS +4.5 5.5* NBA POD[/b]
Lets not over react to what happened in Game 5, the Pacers seemed to relax a bit after winning 3 straight games and the result was total domination by the Wizards on Indiana's floor.. I expect Indiana to bounce back here as they have figured out a defensive scheme against John Wall.. The biggest difference between game 5 and games 2-4 was effort and the Wizards had much more of it with an impressive +39 rebound margin.  That's not just luck that is clearly effort and hustle and I think the Wizards just spent too much energy with only 1 day of rest to come back home and win over 4 quarters.  If the Wizards win it's going to be at the buzzer or in OT and I'm fine getting 4.5 points.. I'm very confident the Pacers have figured out how to beat this team and will do it again tonight to take the series and move on to face the Miami Heat.  There is no way they want this game going back to game 7 in Indiana although the Heat would love it.

[b]Nets +7 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The final score in game 4 does not really tell the full story as the Nets really had the Heat on the ropes despite not playing very well. I think the Nets can actually win game #5 here and send it back to Brooklyn, but at least cover the spread.  The Nets only hit 5 3's and Lebron had the game of his life yet the Nets were tied with less than a minute to play.. I certainly believe the Nets can improve their play the most from game 4 to game 5 and I think they have a shot at coming out with a win here.

Heat -125 4.5* NBA POD[/b]
The Heat were expected in my opinion to lose one game in this round on the road, but I don't think they will let the Nets gain any momentum in game 4.  The Heat know this is a dangerous match up with the Nets sweeping the regular season series and should be able to pick up a win.  I think the Nets will have their hands full and they certainly can not expect to shoot 15-25 from three point land again... Either way Lebron and this team have been very good in this round ATS and they have been even better following a SU loss so expect a big effort tonight by the Heat.

Thunder +5 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Nets +7.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I like the Nets to rebound after getting dominated in the second half of game #1.  The Nets were within 3 points at half time, but lost by double digits.  However the Nets are filled with veterans who have been here before and have a ton of confidence.  The Nets were 14-6 ATS following a loss of 10+ points and 13-3 ATS following a loss by 15+.  The Nets won all 4 regular season match ups against the Heat by keeping Miami under 50% and winning the paint as they were +25 in rebound margin in their 4 wins combined and winning the rebounding margin in each game.

I don't think the Nets could have played worse in game 1 and I expect them to bounce back and be in this game up tot he last second.  They were out rebounded and dominated in the paint in game 1 and allowed the Heat to shoot nearly 60% while Chris Bosh recorded his first double double of the playoffs and Kevin Garnett went scoreless.  Those things will not repeat tonight and I  think it should be enough to make up the difference in points.

LAC/OKC U215 4.4* NBA POD

Both teams finished in the top 10 in defense this season and I think it will be hard for the Clippers to duplicate the kind of performance they had in game #1.  The Thunder were 3rd in opponent shooting % but they allowed Chris Paul to hit 8 3 pointers and 15-29 combined as a team and 55% overall.  The Clippers are ranked 5th in shooting % and I expect this game to be much different.

I also like the Thunder -0.5 and the Wizards +9.5 in a 5 point teaser at -130 odds

WIZARDS +4 4.4* nba pod

Mavericks +7 4.4* NBA POD

I will got with the Mavericks who have played solid basketball throughout the series and I expect them to continue the trend of playing well in San Antonio tonight.  First of all this team has not lost in SA by more than 5 pts all series long and I do not expect them to do it tonight.  The Mavericks have been a good road team going an amazing 42-14 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Dallas is also 50-19 ATS in their last 69 road game overall.  This has been an amazing tightly played series and I even think the Mavericks have played a little better and I would not be shocked if they won today in San Antonio.  

Raptors +5 4.4** NBA POD

The Raptors flat out dominated game 5 and held on with a 2 point victory just enough to give us a 1 point cover on our +3 pick with the Nets.  I have to say it has been a while since we got that type of cover... Seems we are usually on the other end, but I will gladly take the +20 point 4th quarter the Nets had.  I think it hides the fact that the Raptors dominated that game and now I think they are poised to cover this 5 point spread in Brooklyn.  The road teams have the value in round 1 of the NBA playoffs and there is nothing in tonigh's match up that suggests otherwise.

Pacers -1 -105 5** NBA POD

At this point there is now way the Pacers should be favorites on the road nonetheless.  However, I think the oddsmakers know they can get significant money on the Hawks as small dogs and win a bunch of cash in the process.  Neither the Hawks nor the Pacers have been able to win two games in a row and I have to feel the #1 seed who is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss will be able to bounce back here to force a Game 7 in their own building.  The way the Hawks have shot has been ridiculous all series long hitting 10+ threes in each game and hitting 15 in their last game and at this point Pacers head coach Frank Vogel has said enough going to a smaller line up in the second half of game 5 where they were able to make a nice run.  I do not know what is going on with Roy Hibbert, but Frank Vogel is coaching for his job here and he should have no problem benching the All Star.  If Vogel does so I think the Pacers win this game by putting a smaller line up out there with Chris Copeland who came in to spread the floor in Game 5.  Hibbert is like a cancer at this point and when he is not on the court everyone is playing better so it is time for Vogel not to worry about hurt feelings and do what is needed to get this Pacers back to Indiana.  It is not likely that the Hawks will have another great shooting performance against the Pacers if they make the necessary adjustments as the Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following a 100+ point performance and the favorite is 27-12-1 ASTS in the last 40 meetings. 

Nets +137 3* NBA POD

This series has gone back and forth and there is no reason to believe that the Nets won't rebound and win this game.  Each team has shown an ability to win on the road and I think the Nets will show up tonight in what should be a close game decided by 1 possession.  The experience of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett will show as this series continues to go on and I expect Joe Johnson to step up and score some points.  The Nets have 2 days to prepare and although I think the coaching is a bit better on the Raptors side the experience in the Nets locker room will be the difference. 

Bulls -4 4.4* NBA POD There is not a more resilient team than the Bulls in the NBA. How many times has this team been counted out over the last few years without Derek Rose. I have to believe Tom Thibodeau has this team believing they can come back from 3-1 and win this series. For the Wizards and Randy Wittman they have not been here. This is a young team that you have to figure will struggle to close out a series and I think the Bulls will win easily behind a big defensive effort here tonight. First of all Thibodeau never gets enough respect as eh is 72-50 ATS following a loss as the Bulls head coach. The Bulls are also 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 following a loss, but even more impressive is they are 26-16 ATS in their last 42 games with revenge. They lost games 1 and 2 to the Wizards here and I expect them to come with their best performance yet here tonight.

Spurs -185 4* Play[/b]
We had the Spurs ML as a huge play the other night and the Mavericks simply lost the game at the buzzer, but it was the lack of defense and help from the supporting cast that did them in the end.  I expect the veteran leadership on this team to really boot these kids in the ass and for the Spurs to come out and win this game.  At this point I'm not confident in them beating the spread despite their success with revenge.  Every team in the NBA playoffs has shown the capability of winning on the road and I see no reason why the Spurs won't even up this series tonight considering their success with revenge and following a loss.

Bobcats+325 1* play; Bobcats +8 4.4* NBA POD
The Bobcats have not beaten the Heat in 19 straight games they basically own them, but the Bobcats have played better than the series says.  Sure the Heat would love to get some rest here, but at the same time I don't know that they want too much rest with all of these games going to 7 games and they certainly are not worried about the Bobcats coming back in the series.  This is an opportunity for the Heat to take a breather and we get an inflated line.  The Bobcats were 5 point dogs a game ago and they were 9.5 and 10 point dogs in Miami.  I don't think the oddsmakers are capable of making a 3 point mistake, but I could be wrong.  I also love the fact that this league never surprises me.  Everything is about money and I may sound a little crazy to be calling out a conspiracy but if the Heat lose tonight you have to wonder if their own gave these players an incentive to have the game back in Miami for at least one more game where they can sell out and profit big time.

Spurs -169 5.5* MAX NBA POD

I'll pay the premium juice on this play as I don't see that there is any way in hell that the Spurs lose this game.  First of all the Spurs went 17-3 following a loss this year were 30-11 on the road and now they are facing the Mavericks again on the road where they went 2-0 SU & ATS this season.  The Mavericks have scoring options, but they simply don't play defense ranking 22nd in worst shooting % defense.  The Spurs went 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS on the road this year against the bottom third defensively challenged teams.  One of those losses came to the Pistons after they were playing their 5th game in 8 days part of a grueling road trip.  I'm confident in this veteran team they are well rested and come in on 2 days rest for this game with a lot of motivation.  This team won't let their opportunity to take back home court advantage in this series slip away.  This won't be a Pacers choke job I expect the Spurs to bounce back big.

Bulls +135 2* play
I think the Bulls are just too tough of a team to go down easily. I don't see them getting swept the Wizards have so much confidence going right now this is a perfect spot for a let down and the I think the Bulls are just the team to rebound and get back in this series on the road.   The Bulls have not played good defense in this series and they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 100+ points in previous game and they are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings while the under dog has covered 6 games in a row.

Nets/Raptors U191.5 4.4* NBA POD

On a roll right now on NBA POD's and it continues on Friday night... Both teams should resume to their game 1 forms.  This has been a half court series and I think with two defensive oriented teams looking to take the lead in the series it will be much more of the same here tonight.  The first 3 quarters of game #1 were all in the 40's and then the 4th quarter the Raptors exploded. I  don't anticipate that to happen these are two of the better defenses in the league and two of the slower paced teams in the league and I think the value in the total is good especially for a playoff game.

Warriors +3 4.4* NBA POD
The Warriors were dominated in game 2 138-98 and I think we see a change in the spread value here not to mention the line has moved up to 3 points.  I'll take the extra value as the story of the series so far has been foul trouble. In game 1 it was the Clippers in foul trouble and in game 2 it was the Warriors.  The Warriors bounce back well and are 8-3 ATS as an under dog 0-5.5 points this year.  The Warriors are 11-3 at home following a loss and 3-0 following a loss of 20+ points.  Dating back to last year they are 33-16-2 ATS following a loss and are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Warriors simply have too much talent not to be in this game and I believe they will win this game as this series is going to go back and forth with two evenly matched teams.
    

Wizards +5.5 3.3* NBA POD I see no reason to change. The Wizards have now won 3 of their 4 games against the Bulls this season. I just think the Wizards is a bad match up for the Bulls, because it forces the Bulls to score points to win.  Washington was a 2.5 point under dog during the regular season and now that the Wizards have won game 1 they have moved up again to a 5.5 point under dog so we have plenty of value here.  Chicago does not often blow teams out and I don't think they will today.

Memphis Grizzlies +7 4.4* NBA POD
I like Memphis once again for all the reasons I mentioned on Saturday.  This team has been playing its best basketball and should be in this game.  They got off to a terrible start in game 1 and were never able to recover.  At one point they pulled within 4 points even late in the 3rd quarter.  They did this despite shooting 36% from the field 2-11 from the field and an awful 18-31 from the FT line.  They also were out rebounded by 10.  I don't expect the most versatile front court to have another poor night as Gasol and Randolph were a combined 14-40.  Mike Conley also struggled going 0-6 from three and 6-16 from the field.  Expect them to bounce back and give the Thunder fits.

Wizards +4.5 3.3* NBA POD
The Bulls win with defense that is clearly evident by this team being ranked #2 in defense and #30 in offense, but the Wizards I think featuring many scoring options that should allow them to cover this spread and win the game.. A lot is to be made of playoff experience and how the Bulls have a major advantage, but the Wizards do have a ton of experience and more depth than the Bulls in my opinion.  Here is a look at the Wizards playoff apperances:
    Miller: 52 career playoff games
    Nene: 42 career playoff games
    Ariza: 41 career playoff games
    Harrington: 48 career playoff games
    Gooden: 40 career playoff games
    Gortat: 46 career playoff games

With that said I think Chicago got hot at the end of the year which has moved this spread up a full 2 points.  Washington was a 2.5 under dog at Chicago earlier in the year and won 102-88.  Chicago lost 2 of 3 on the year to the Wizards and today's refs combine for 12-27 ATS edge with home favorite of 0-4.5 points.  Wizards are also 17-11 ATS as a dog 0-4.5 poitns this year and are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games while the dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Grizzlies +7.5 2.2* bonus play
Re-entering Russell Westbrook into the line up is always a dangerous thought.  The Thunder always seem to suffer form chemistry issues when he's back in the line up and I just think this is too many points when you take into fact that Memphis is 25-13 ATS vs. good teams who were +6ppg or more over the last 2 years.  Memphis started slowly but they closed the season 23-9 and they seem to be healthy with Marc Gasol who gives them the most versatile front court in the NBA.  With Gasol int he line up the Grizzlies are 40-19 and he allows Zach Randloph to get 1 on 1's, but the biggest reason why I think the Grizzlies are going to give the Thunder a real run for their money is MIke Conley who stepped up his game he's the reason why Memphis is 3rd fewest in turnovers per game.  This Memphis team is built to win in the playoffs where the tempo slows and they have several role players who can help like Mike Miller who hit 58% of his threes in 3 games vs. the Thunder this year.  Overall I do like the Thunder's depth better, but in a game with Westbrook coming back 7.5 pts is a few too many.

Raptors -3 -107 4.5* NBA POD

The Nets tanked the end of their season to avoid playing the playoff experienced Bulls and to get the match up against the Raptors.  I think the Raptors at home will be a tough game for the Nets to win and I think we have value here with them as favorites by one posession.  First of all Toronto was a 7 and 8.5 point favorite at home during the regular season to the Nets.  They also face a Nets team that is 16-25 on the road.  The Nets have issues rebounding (2nd worst) and scoring (24th on the road).  Toronto was a combined 24-7 SU vs. top 10 worst rebounding and scoring teams and 17-11-3 ATS.

Toronto traded Rudy Gay and have since had the best record in the East.  Demar Rozan played extremely well vs. the Nets in all 4 games this year 22.7 ppg and 4.3rpg and 4.0apg on 50% shooting, but the mismatch here for me is PG Kyle Lowry who is just too fast for Deron Williams he scored 22ppg in the 4games vs. the Nets this year and 48% from 3.  I really think Toronto is more balanced being the only team in the east in the top 10 in offense and defensive efficiency and they definitely have a chip on their shoulder the way the Nets drop games to face them.. For the Nets I would say be careful what you wish for.