|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-02-22||North Carolina v. Duke -4||Top||81-77||Loss||-110||11 h 23 m||Show|
5:45 pm pst
Sports fans, the drama surrounding this Final Four matchup is unrivaled. North Carolina and Duke have been going out each other for as far back as I can remember. Obviously, there’s the story surrounding Coach Mike Krzyzewski retiring after this Tournament. And obviously, the team wants to win for him. There’s also all the brouhaha surrounding the fact that Duke took the first meeting this season back in February by 20-points and then in Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium North Carolina shredded them by 13-points. Hubert Davis is a good coach. He’s done a lot with his Tar Heels team this season. But he is certainly outmanned and outclassed here. It goes without saying he doesn’t have anywhere near the coaching experience as his counterpart. Nor does he have his big game intelligence or savvy. The Blue Devils score more offensively and allow less defensively. They’re also one the most accurate teams in the country both from beyond the arc and overall, from the floor. Let’s not forget the fact that they are one of the best in the nation on the offensive boards. North Carolina can score and is accurate from downtown as well. And also grab a lot of offensive rebounds. But the mismatch you’re going to see is between the Duke offense and the North Carolina defense. There is a huge disparity in ability, talent, and statistics. The Blue Devils can go to the well for fresh legs throughout the game as they are a little bit deeper and have that monster frontcourt with four big men in the starting lineup. The Tar Heels are 8-18-1 against spread the last 27 neutral side games played as underdog and 2-6 against spread eight NCAA Tournament games played as an underdog. Take Duke. Thank you.
|03-20-22||Ohio State v. Villanova -5||Top||61-71||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
Wildcats, head coach, Jay Wright and his boys have won two of the last five tournaments. They come in here rolling today, winning six in a row. Villanova also has National Player of the Year candidate, Collin Gillespie. If this team was going to have a letdown, it would’ve happened after they won the Big East tournament. But it did not as they shellacked Delaware, 80-60 in the first round. They are no strangers to Ohio State. These two met up in November, 2019 when the Buckeyes crushed the Wildcats, 76-51. Gillespie was on that team and remembers that embarrassing loss quite well. Look for him to come out and lead the more talented bunch, get their vengeance, and move onto the Sweet 16. Ohio State is 2-10 against the spread the last 12 NCAA Tournament games. Villanova is 17-5 against the spread the last 22 NCAA Tournament games. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.
|03-17-22||Vermont v. Arkansas -4||Top||71-75||Push||0||11 h 13 m||Show|
BEST BET PLAY.
6:20 pm pst/9:20 pm est.
My friends, every March we hear sports commentators chatting about Cinderella teams that have a shot go far in the Tournament. This year we’re hearing that static about Vermont. However, the Catamounts are going to be a one-and-done memory as they have a snowballs chance in hell at surviving today’s match up with the Razorbacks. Yes, I know they went through the American East Conference like a tornado. But the AEC is no way near to the SEC. Remember that Arkansas went 13-5 in conference play this season and have taken down some big-name teams like LSU three times, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri, Florida, and Kentucky. Vermont stepped up out of their class dropping games, losing and not even covering against the likes of Maryland and Providence. As a matter fact those two matchups got pretty darn ugly falling in both by double-digits. They also don’t have a big man that can even slow down forward, Jaylin Williams. The Catamounts are 1-4 against the spread their last five games played as an underdog and 0-4 against the spread their last four games played on neutral sites. The Razorbacks are 8-2-1 against the spread their last 11 games played as a favorite and 14-3-1 against the spread their last 14 games played overall. Take Arkansas. Thank you.
|03-15-22||St Bonaventure v. Colorado -3.5||Top||76-68||Loss||-110||15 h 42 m||Show|
NIT FIRST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR.
Tuesday, March 15, 2022.
8:00 pm pst/11:00 pm est.
These two teams enter the first round of the NIT tournament with very different mindsets. St. Bonaventure finished their regular season very strong winning eight of their final nine outings. However, on Friday in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, Kyle Lofton missed two free throws in the final seconds to give the team a heartbreaking, 57-56 loss to Saint Louis. Most teams will have a hard time bouncing back from a defeat like that. And this team has showed that they aren’t one of them. Colorado won seven of their last eight regular season contests, then dominated Oregon in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, only to lose a tough contest to top-seeded Arizona. They do have the talent and the coaching to bounce back and use that loss to further motivate them here. The Bonnies have faced and beaten a few solid squads. However, this team seems to stumble when they step up in class in their own conference. And when stepping up outside the conference, well they got shredded in both situations this season against the Huskies (10-point loss) and the Hokies (37-point loss). With a frontcourt of three strong big men led by forward, Jabari Walker, who happens to be the best player on the floor, Colorado will dominate both inside and on the boards here. St. Bonnie is 1-8 against spread their last nine road games played versus teams with a winning home record, 1-5 against the spread their last six games played as an underdog, and 4-10 against the spread their last 14 games played following an ATS loss. Take Colorado. Thank you.
|03-05-22||Colorado +2 v. Utah||Top||84-71||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
6:30 pm pst/9:30 pm est.
Colorado is one of the hottest teams in the nation let alone the conference, winning six of their last seven straight up and five of those seven against this spread. With a win here the Buffaloes can clinch the number four seed and a first-round bye in the upcoming tournament. They took the first meeting approximately three weeks ago at home 81-76. Meanwhile Utah has dropped 14 of their last 17 straight up which includes their last two. They have been absolute point spread poison, dropping their last three and overall, 15 of the last 24. Outside of the Beavers, the Utes are the worst team in the conference and aren’t playing for anything here. If they had any pride or fight in them, they would’ve at least shown up over the month which they have not. Look for the trio of forwards, Walker, Battey, and DaSilva (35.5 PPG & 17.3 RPG combined) to once again dominant in the paint as they did in the first meeting. Utah is 1-4 against the spread the last five games played as a favorite. Take Colorado. Thank you.
|02-26-22||North Carolina -4 v. NC State||Top||84-74||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
11:00 am pst/2:00 pm est.
This may be an in-state rivalry but North Carolina is looking to move back into a good spot for postseason positioning. Coming off a home loss last Wednesday to Pittsburgh, they have now rattled off two consecutive wins at Virginia Tech and in their own house against Louisville. The Tar Heels still have a chance at the Atlantic Coast Conference’s top-spot and big win here will get them closer to that goal. They face a Wolfpack team that has just one win and cover over the last eight outings and are a dismal, 1-8 in conference home games this season. In the earlier meeting back at the end of January, North Carolina shredded NC State, 100-80 at home. That gave them seven wins and covers in the last eight meetings with their conference rival. They have just too much offensive power for the lackluster offense of the Wolfpack. Look for the Tar Heels to make a statement to the rest of the conference here. NC state is 1-5 against the spread their last six games played as underdog, 0-4 against the spread the last four games played against teams with a winning record, and 1-5 against the spread the last six games played following a straight up loss. Take North Carolina. Thank you.
|02-22-22||Arkansas v. Florida||Top||82-74||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
SEC GAME OF THE WEEK.
Tuesday, February 22, 2022.
4:00 pm pst/7:00 pm est.
If there was a game on the card today that certainly has an off-line, this game is it. Arkansas should be a favorite of at least two baskets. The Razorbacks have very quietly risen to be the number three team in the Southeastern Conference at 10-4 in league play. Overall, they sport a 21-6 record. And once again very quietly, they are just about the hottest team in the nation winning both 11 of their last 12 straight up and more importantly for us, against the spread. Florida is struggling for sure, splitting out their last eight games going 4-4 straight up and only covering once since the end of January, riding a 1-5 ATS run. This is a team that was once feared from downtown but have now sunk to hitting just about 30% beyond the arc. This doesn’t bode well in this matchup because they just don’t have the inside strength to match with Arkansas’ powerful lineup, which accounts are over 77.3 PPG. The Razorbacks also counter defensively with a very stingy stop-unit yielding just 40.6% from the floor. Offensively, when your number four scorer, Jaylin Williams is named the SEC Co-Player of the Week, that just shows you how potent your starting lineup really is. After several years of the Gators dominating this series, the tide is turning for sure. The Razorbacks took the most-recent meeting about a season ago, 75-64 and are even better this season. Arkansas is 6-0 ATS the last six games played as a favorite, 5-0 ATS the last five games played on the road, and 5-0 ATS the last five games played vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600. Take the Razorbacks. Thank you.
|01-25-22||Wyoming v. Boise State -5.5||Top||62-65||Loss||-106||10 h 54 m||Show|
MWC GAME OF THE MONTH.
6:00 pm pst.
Boise State has dominated Wyoming, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, including seven straight. They won and covered both of last season’s matchups. Kudos to the Cowboys for winning five in a row. But the Broncos are riding a 12-game hot streak. Yes, Wyoming can score points. But BSU counters their offense with the nation’s 8th ranked scoring defense. I mean come on; Wyoming was an underdog against Grand Canyon. In their two losses to Arizona and Stanford they could only muster 65 and 63 points. Well, the Boise State defense is just as good. Particularly on the boards which will allow a huge edge in transition. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS the last four vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600, 5-1 ATS the last six following an ATS win, and 8-2 ATS the last 10 overall. Take Boise State. Thank you.
|01-14-22||Davidson +1 v. Richmond||Top||87-84||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
6:00 pm pst.
Both teams are playing well and Richmond has won the last three meetings SU and the last four ATS. But Davidson is on a 12-game SU win streak and is a remarkable, 11-3 ATS on the campaign. The Wildcats, behind four double-digit scorers significantly outclass the Spiders with a huge mismatch. Richmond will not be able to even slow down the offensive juggernaut of Davidson. The Spiders are on an 0-3 ATS slide, are just 1-5 ATS their last five vs. teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS their last six games played at home. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.
|11-30-21||Minnesota -2.5 v. Pittsburgh||Top||54-53||Loss||-102||8 h 11 m||Show|
4:00 pm pst.
Don’t look now but the Golden Gophers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. They possess a monster defense allowing just 59.6 PPG. Minny is just a 3-pt’er away from covering all five contests and going back a bit to last March, seven straight. With four double-digit scorers and a frustrating “D”, they just simply outgun Pitt here. The Panthers have dropped four games this season, all by double-digits (Citadel, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, UMBC). Pitt is 1-5 ATS the last six games played at home and 2-6 ATS the last eight games played overall. Take the Golden Gophers. Thank you.
|04-03-21||Houston +5.5 v. Baylor||Top||59-78||Loss||-110||8 h 37 m||Show|
1:10 pm pst.
Yes, Baylor is a good team that plays in a very competitive conference. However, Houston has the size, strength, speed, and depth to not just compete, but to win here. They own the nations No. 2 defense in points allowed, No.1 in FG%, and No. 4 in 3-point %. The Cougars also outclass the Bears on both the “O” and “D” boards here. Houston is 11-2 ATS L13 as a ‘dog, 21-8 ATS L29 vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600, and 14-6 ATS L20 overall. Take the Cougars. Thank you.
|03-30-21||USC v. Gonzaga -8||Top||66-85||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4:15 pm pst.
Both teams have won and covered their last three. But, Gonzaga, which is by far the superior team in every aspect here, will not let their foot off the gas. The Bulldogs have the front court to overpower the Trojans offense and frustrate their defense. Gonzaga is 6-1 ATS L7 on neutral sites and 4-1 ATS L5 NCAA Tournament games. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.
|03-27-21||Syracuse v. Houston -6.5||Top||46-62||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
SWEET 16 BB.
6:55 pm pst.
The clock strikes midnight for Syracuse here. They have fallen each time they face a top-tier defense this season. And they don’t get any better than the swarming and frustrating ‘D” of Houston. The Orange will also be overmatched on both sides of the court on the boards here as the Cougars rank 5th offensively and 16th defensively on the glass. Look for Quentin Grimes to star in his own highlight reel here. Houston is 20-7 ATS L27 vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600, 7-2 ATS L9 on neutral sites, and 13-5 ATS L18 overall. Take the Cougars. Thank you.
|03-13-21||Georgetown +8.5 v. Creighton||Top||73-48||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
3:30 pm pst.
Georgetown is money, covering seven of their last nine outings and are a very dangerous team here as they have nothing to lose. No one gave them a shot in this Tourney. The pressure is all on Creighton, which played a tiring, barnburner with UConn yesterday. Fatigue may be a factor come the 2nd half. The Hoyas are 5-1 ATS L6 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS L11 vs. teams with a SU winning record. Take Georgetown. Thank you.