Oddsmaker Error Game of the Month (Mavs) : Both of these clubs having to play in back-to-back spots, but there is a big difference in how they handle them. The Mavs lost at New York on Sunday, 104-97 while Boston was beaten badly at Detroit, 96-81. The Celtics are an old team and old teams have problems playing in this spot. The Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games in the second of a back-to-back situation. The Mavs, however, are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the same situation. In addition, the Mavericks have been hot, though they lost Sunday, it was the club's first setback in their last seven games. Can't say the same for the Celtics who have now lost five of their last six games. I think the oddsmakers have made this line too low tonight. I'm taking the Mavericks in what should be a blowout.

NBA Upset Game of the Month (Pistons) : Detroit may be in last place but they are playing well, recently winning 6 of 8 games straight up and 8-1 ATS their last nine games. The talent is impressive, with young 7-foot-1 center Greg Monroe (16.8 ppg, 10 rpg) up front, with Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight in the backcourt, plus veteran Tayshaun Prince. This is a young team and they face an aging Celtics team, one that is banged up, too. The Celtics are 1-4 straight up their last five and 3-8 ATS their last 11. And today they are about a 5-point favorite at Detroit. The Pistons just beat this Boston team in the Garden a few days ago, I don't see why they can't do it again on their home court. Take the Pistons.

02/17 04:35 PM NBA (809) SACRAMENTO KINGS VS (810) DETROIT PISTONS
Take: (810) DETROIT PISTONS
Reason: NBA Mismatch Massacre Game of the Year: Pistons.
Detroit may be in last place but they are playing well, winning 5 of 7 games, winning straight up as a dog 4 times. The talent is impressive, with young 7-foot-1 center Greg Monroe (16.8 ppg, 10 rpg) up front, with Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight in the backcourt, plus veterans Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon. They come off another stunner, winning at Boston, 98-88, as a +9 dog. Greg Monroe took advantage of Kevin Garnett's absence, scoring 22 and added nine rebounds. Jason Maxiell helped him on the defensive boards (six in 32 minutes; seven total) for the second straight night. He has 16 his last two games. The Pistons are on a 7-1 ATS run, while the Kings are on an 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS run and a long way from home. Sacramento is playing the 3rd of a 6-game road trip and the defense has been terrible, giving up 98, 121 and 100 points the last three games. Look for a one-sided win by the home team against the road weary visitors. Play the Pistons!

02/14 07:05 PM EST NBA (701) MIAMI HEAT VS (702) INDIANA PACERS
Take: (702) NBA Situational Game of the Year: Pacers.
With the compressed schedule in the NBA this season we are seeing more back-to-back spots, and teams having to play more nights than they care to in short periods of time. This stresses the bench and tires the legs out of the starters. Tonight Miami is playing its 3rd game in 3 nights. The Heat comes into this week having had 8 situations where they played the second of a back to back. The result has been a 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS record. They face an Indiana team that is rested, having not played since Saturday, and is playing great, with a winning record both home and away. Indiana is 5th in the league in rebounding and 9th in points allowed. The players and fans will be sky-high with Lebron James in town, the Beasts of the East, so look for a huge effort by the home dog -- and a win. Play the Pacers!

25* Situational Slam Dunk : With the compressed schedule in the NBA this season we are seeing more back-to-back spots, and teams having to play more nights than they care to in short periods of time. This has let to seeing just how deep benches can go. It also becomes important to rest starters as much as possible, if possible in previous games. Tonight Miami is put into that back-to-back spot. This year they have had to play in this situation eight times. The result has been a 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS record. Miami is arguably the best team in the NBA this season and you have to find the right times to go against them and this is the time. We are catching the Heat in a vulnerable spot. But is Milwaukee up to the task? The Bucks are 12-15 this season S/U, 7-5 S/U at home. The have already beaten the Heat at home once this year, 105-97. In addition they have beaten the Lakers and Spurs at home. So yes, as a home dog we can expect a straight up win out of the Bucks. But we don't even need that tonight as they should be getting at least five points. The Bucks are 2-0 S/U and ATS against Miami this season with one of those games coming when they caught Miami in that back-to-back spot. I'm looking for a third straight-up win tonight by the Bucks.

Road Warrior Game of the Month : The Chicago Bulls see their grueling road swing finally come to an end after Sunday's game at the Garden against the Celtics. Chicago has now played its last eight games on the road. So you think they are fatigued? Heck no, they have rattled off five straight road wins after they embarrassed Charlotte on its how court Friday, 95-64. Their only two losses on this road trip where at Miami and Philadelphia. They covered the Miami contest but where blown out in Philly. Still, Chicago has covered four straight games. Now they get to face a slow-paced Boston club that is near the bottom of the league in points scored per game. That will help this Chicago club since they won't have to face a faster paced team. Boston is having an uncharacteristic mediocre season. The Celtics are just 14-12 SU and 12-14 ATS on the season. Boston has lost two in a row, an OT home loss to the Lakers and then at Toronto last time out, 86-74. You can expect a very low scoring game here on Sunday (six of last eight in series have gone UNDER). These clubs met in Boston back on Jan 13 and the Bulls won a low scoring game, 88-79. In fact, Chicago has now covered six of the last seven times these teams have met. I think the Bulls have enough left in the tank for one more road game here on Sunday. I'm taking Chicago minus the points.

02/10 07:05 PM EST NBA (855) ATLANTA HAWKS (856) ORLANDO MAGIC
Take: (856) NBA Home Court Game of the Year: Magic.
A battle for second place in the Southeast and the Atlanta Hawks (17-9) are having a strong season, but have major problems to the frontcourt. They are vulnerable in the middle with C Al Horford out for 3 months (torn left pectoral) and backup Jason Collins will miss at least two weeks after he sprained his left elbow. The Hawks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games playing on one days rest. The Orlando Magic (16-10) have been up and down, but there's no denying the talent on this team with 6-11 26-year old Dwight Howard (20 ppg, 15 rpg), 32-year old 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu (12 ppg), 23-year old 6-10 Ryan Anderson (16 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and JJ Redick (11 ppg) and Jason Richardson (10.0 apg) in backcourt. They smacked around the Miami Heat in their last game, a big 102-89 win, and now have a chance to knock of division rival Atlanta here. The Magic put together one of their best games this season. They made 17 of their franchise-record 42 attempts from 3-point range, and in the second half, they shut down Miami's transition game. Ryan Anderson scored a team-high 27 points, and Howard added 25 points, 24 rebounds and four assists. The best news of all is that guard Jameer Nelson (concussion) is back after missing 5 straight games. He came back Monday and played well, with 15 points, 12 assists against the Clippers and played 32 minutes (12 points) against the Heat. The Magic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Look for a huge effort by the motivated, deep and talented home team that needs to make another statement. Play the Magic!

NBA T.V. Game of the Year (Blazers) : Oklahoma City has opened up a 3 1/2 game lead in the Northwest Division of the Western Conference. The Thunder, while 7-3 SU their last 10, are coming off a loss at San Antonio, 107-96. Oklahoma City has covered just one of its last four games and two of the last five. The Thunder are third in the NBA in points scored per game (100.0) and 14th in points allowed (95.1). Kevin Durant continues to be the leader on this club, averaging 26.8 ppg and pulling down a team-leading 8.3 rebounds/game. Portland (14-10) can close the 4 1/2 game gap in the division with OKC tonight with a win. The Blazers are 6-4 in their last 10 games and coming off a win at home over Denver, 117-97. I'm going to be taking the Blazers here on Monday. Not only do we get this game at pick'em or maybe even Portland a small dog, but my numbers have the Blazers about 4-7 point favorites. The Blazers have been great at covering spreads at home this year, going 10-2 ATS. Portland can keep up scoring with OKC here, as they average 98.2 ppg (5th in the NBA), are 7th in rebounds and 9th in points allowed. LaMarcus Aldridge leads the club in scoring (23.1ppg). Moreover, Portland has six players averaging in double figures scoring this season. No doubt that this will be a good game, but we get a rested Portland team while the Thunder are playing their third game in four nights. I'm taking Portland here on Monday as my T.V. Game of the Year.

02/04 08:35 PM EST NBA (515) CHICAGO BULLS (516) MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Take: (515) NBA TV Game of the Month: Bulls.
They way to attack the Bulls is to pound the ball in the low post, especially with Keith Bogut still out. Chicago comes to town with a fierce frontcourt, No. 1 in the NBA in rebounds and No. 3 in points allowed (87.9 ppg). The Bulls just finished a tough stretch going 2-2, with losses to the Heat and 76ers and a win at New York. The Bulls haven't lost consecutive regular-season games since Feb. 5-7, 2011 after Thursday night's 105-102 victory over the Knicks at a raucous Madison Square Garden. "We hate losing. We have winners on our team. When we lose, the next game we know for sure that team is going to get our all," said Derek Rose, who had 32 points, 13 assists. Chicago is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. Milwaukee is 25th in the league in rebounds and in a tough scheduling spot, playing the second of a back to back spot while Chicago is rested. The Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on no days rest. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee, including 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Chicago Bulls.

02/03 04:05 PM NBA (801) MIAMI HEAT VS (802) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Take: (802) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Reason: NBA Shocker of the Year: 76ers.
A showdown in Philly and while many think this will be a close one, it won't. The 76ers are flexing their muscles as a new power in the East, in first place in the Atlantic and tops in the NBA in points allowed. This is a powerful rebounding team, physical in the low post, and that's the way to play Miami. The Heat has been overvalued on the road with just a 6-4 record away from home and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is also 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Miami was a 7-point road favorite the last game and laid another egg in a 105-97 loss at Milwaukee. Philly is on a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS run after smacking around Chicago on this floor, 98-82, two nights ago. What a pair of bookends on the season to beat Chicago and Miami in back to back games. The 76ers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall. And the Heat is just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the 76ers.

02/01 08:35 PM NBA (717) HOUSTON ROCKETS VS (718) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Take: (718) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: Rivalry Game of the Year: Spurs.
The Spurs host the Rockets in their Intrastate rivalry. Houston (12-9 SU, 12-9 ATS) has put together a very nice season thus far. However, this team has been much better at home than on the road. While this is true for most teams, it is even more magnified for this Rockets club. This season the Rockets are 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home and that includes a blowout win over the Spurs back on Dec 29, 105-85. On the road, the Rockets are 4-5 ATS and 3-6 SU, though they have been better of late on the road, though they did lost on Jan 11 at San Antonio, 101-95, covering the 7-pt spread. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home. Their home average margin of victory this season is 12.5 ppg and they are allowing under 90 points per game at home - and that includes allowing 117 to Denver back on Jan 7. The Spurs defense will shutdown this Rockets club on Wednesday. I haven't liked the Rockets much on the road, but especially don't like them against a good defensive club. Take the Spurs here on Wednesday!

01/31 07:05 PM EST NBA (505) ATLANTA HAWKS VS (506) TORONTO RAPTORS
Take: (505) 25-Star NBA Situational Slam Dunk: Hawks.
Last place Toronto has all kinds of problems, 28th in the NBA in points scored and home after playinjg 8 of the last 9 on the road. Guard Leandro Barbosa sat out Sunday

January Game of the Month : Both these clubs have struggled, but while the Bucks have shown some life at times, the Pistons still are mis-firing. Detroit (4-17 SU, 7-14 ATS) has lost four straight games and eight of its last nine. Now the Piston have to do the dreaded three games in three nights situation and it begins on the road tonight in Milwuakee. The Pistons road woes have been bad, scoring a league worst 81.4 ppg and winning just one of 10 away games. Like Milwuakee, the Pistons are without some key cogs in their lineup. Ben Gordon is out with a shoulder, Charlie Villanueva has a foot injury and Will Bynum also is suffering from a foot injury. Milwaukee (8-11 SU, 9-10 ATS) played well without center Andrew Bogut, beating the Lakers, 100-89. Bogut is expected to miss 8-12 weeks with a fracture in his ankle. It's bad enough when you are shorthanded, but playing three games in three nights will really put the strain on the Pistons. This seven to eight point line on Milwuakee looks a bit low to me against a poor road Pistons team. Even without Bogut, I'm going to take the Bucks at home tonight as my January Game of the Month.

Home Court Game of the Year : Are the Lakers still one of the NBA Elite? They have shown flashes of it this year, but for the most part this club is looking old. Missing out on the Paul sweepstakes and losing Lamar Odom looks to have taken a toll on this team. The Lakers snapped a three game losing steak with a win over their intra-city rivals, Clippers, 96-91. But then the Lakers took to the road on Saturday and got beat soundly by the underdog Bucks, 100-89. Now the Lakers put into that unenviable spot of a second of back-to-back games. The Lakers have been in this spot five times already this year and thus far, 1-4 ATS. Plus, the Lakers have been horrible on the road, covering just one of seven away games. Meanwhile, not only is Minnesota looking for a third straight win today, but they have covered six of their last nine games. The Lakers have been very beatable this year, especially on the road. We get this game around pick'em, which means we need a Wolves straight up win. I see that happening quite easily here on Sunday. The Lakers don't like these back to back spots and they won't like the outcome today. Take the Timberwolves as your home court Game of the Year.

01/27 10:35 PM EST NBA (825) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (826) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take: (825) NBA Blowout Game of the Year: Oklahoma City Thunder.
Golden State put a lot into their last game, a win over Portland. The Warriors were looking to rebound after the 'embarrassing' loss against Memphis a night earlier, blowing a 20-point lead. Let's remember this team is still 1-3 SU/ATS the last 4 games and has a lot of weak areas, 27th in rebounding and 26th in points allowed. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and faces a powerhouse Oklahoma City team. The first place Thunder are 5th in points scored, have won 3 in a row and 7-2 on the road. The Thunder notched another win in convincing fashion on Wednesday, knocking off New Orleans 101-91. The win, coupled with Chicago's loss against Indiana, bumped Oklahoma City to a league-best 15-3. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and the road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these teams. Play Oklahoma City!

01/25 08:05 PM EST NBA (713) MILWAUKEE BUCKS (714) HOUSTON ROCKETS
Take: 20-Star NBA Powerhouse Total: Bucks/Rockets Over the total.
Milwaukee has plenty of offensive talent to be scoring more points with Brandon Jennings pushing the basketball and big men Andrew Bogut and Drew Gooden, who are better offensive players than defensive ones. At least the offense is going after a rough start, winning 2 of the last 3 games, including a 100-86 win over the Knicks and a 91-82 win at Miami. The over is 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. They run into a Houston team that likes the uptempo game, scoring 105 and 107 points the last tow games, both wins. In fact, they've won 7 in a row and 8 of 9 while on a 4-2 run over the total. The offense is 7th in the NBA in points (97.9 ppg) and the over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for a shootout; Play the Bucks/Rockets Over the total.

01/21 08:05 PM EST NBA (511) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (512) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take: (511) 20-Star NBA Situational Slam Dunk: Mavericks.
After opening the season 0-3 the defending champs won 9 of 12. This team is deep and playing great defense, 3rd in the NBA in points allowed. The Mavericks are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. the Western Conference. New Orleans let their best players leave from last year (David West, Chris Paul) and they look like a bad, rebuilding team (3-12). The Hornets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on one days rest. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and they will pound this weak New Orleans club -- as they usually do (the Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings). Play the Dallas Mavericks!

01/20 10:35 PM EST NBA (821) INDIANA PACERS VS (822) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take: (822) NBA Mismatch Massacre Game of the Year: Warriors.
Indiana is a long way from home and I'll grab the healthy home dog. Indiana had a nice home stand, but as soon as they went on the road the last game they lost at Sacramento as a 5- point favorite, blowing a 16-point lead. Sacramento coach Keith Smart went to a zone defense and small lineup to try to disrupt the Pacers

NBA Mismatch Game of the Year (Sixers) : For me, the surprise team of the early NBA season has to be this Philly team. There are really no big name players on this team. Rather you have Lou Williams, Andrea Iguodala, Jrue Holiday and a host of other players who are all contributing to this club. The result thus far is a 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS start to the season, quite impressive. At home the club has been even better, going 5-0 SU and ATS with an average margin of victory of 25.2 points per game! That shouldn't change here on Monday as they catch a Milwuakee club that is off to a 4-7 SU and ATS start. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS on the road where they are coming off a punishing loss at Dallas, 102-76. While Milwuakee has covered the last three in this series, it's really been a series dominated ATS by the Sixers since 2004 where they are 16-9-1. Both teams have had at least one night's rest so that shouldn't be an issue today. Bucks C Andrew Bogut (Concussion) should be back today, but have to wonder how effective he will be after missing some time. We get a somewhat earlier start today because of the MLK holiday and that means you start off with an early winner. Take the Sixers in what should be a lopsided win.

01/10 08:05 PM NBA (511) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (512) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: (511) Western Conference Game of the Year (Thunder): Second meeting of the season between these western conference clubs. The Thunder took the first meeting back on Dec 28th in Memphis, 98-95. Kevin Durant led the Thunder in that game with 32 points. Zach Randolph led the Grizzlies with 24 points. However, Randolph will not be available tonight as he is out indefinitely with knee injury. The Thunder are playing very well and on Sunday became the first team this season to win all three games in a three night span, something all the NBA teams will have to face this season. Oklahoma City is 8-2 on the young season and have won three straight games after a short two-game losing stint. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have lost their bite since Randolph went down, losing two straight games and not scoring over 85 points in either contest. The Grizzlies are now 3-5 SU and ATS on the year with their only two games in which they have scored over 100 points coming against two of the worst road defensive clubs in Houston and Sacramento. All the teams under a lot of pressure to play many games in short periods. However, the Thunder rested Durant the entire fourth quarter of Sunday's game to give him some extra rest. Durant and the Thunder beat Memphis on this floor not long ago and now without their leading scorer in Randolph, the Grizzlies won't put up much of a fight. I'm taking the Thunder minus the short number on the road as my Western Conference GOY.

12/30 10:35 PM EST NBA (821) CHICAGO BULLS VS (822) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Take: (822) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Reason: NBA TV Game of the Month: Clippers. The talented Bulls are in town with Derek Rose, so the home crowd will be into this one. Chicago is not a good road team (0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games before this trip). They went to Golden State and fell flat in a 99-91 defeat. The schedule has been awful, starting the season with 4 straight games, all on the West Coast. This is the second of a back to back road spot for Chicago, while the Clippers are rested. This is the home opener for LA after a two-game trip. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and all the cards favor the new-look and rested Clippers. Play the LA Clippers.

12/28 08:05 PM EST NBA (711) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (712) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: (711) 25-Star NBA Bookie Buster: Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City is off to a solid 2-0 start, playing tough defense while averaging 100.5 ppg. This is a young, deep athletic team. Over the offseason, he shed 31 pounds and transformed his body to get into better shape. Trough two preseason games and two regular season contests, center Kendrick Perkins has shown improved speed and agility. His defense helped limit Orlando center Dwight Howard to 11 points in the opener Sunday, and he's finishing plays offensively with authority and regularity. The way to beat Memphis is with height up front and the Thunder have it with Perkins, Durant and Nick Collison. Memphis had that great postseason run last May, but this team has already been smacked around by San Antonio, so it's a brand new season, guys! Manu Ginobili scored 24 points and the San Antonio Spurs got some payback after their stunning playoff collapse last season. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on one days rest. Play Oklahoma City!

12/25 10:35 PM EST NBA (509) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS (510) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take: (509) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Reason: 25-Star NBA High Roller: Clippers.
The "old" Clippers of last season where actually very good as a favorite, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Now we have the new and improved Clippers -- one loaded with talent, adding Chris Paul to an already talented young lineup. They take on a Golden State team doesn't play and defense and has been banged up with a lot of injuries in preseason. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific. The Clippers might not be quite the powerhouse team yet, but they have more than enough talent and rebounding ability to score a bundle on this weak and small Warriors team. Play the LA Clippers.

Coach Tom Thibodeau earned that Coach of the Year trophy by bringing exceptional defense to the young Bulls. Chicago finished No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed, with 91.3 ppg. That great defense comes in handy, especially on the road, as the Bulls are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bulls are also 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog! An even better indicator of defensive prowess is field goal shooting percentage allowed and these teams were No. 1 and 2 in the NBA during the regular season allowing 43% and .434% shooting by opponents. And we've seen that great defense all during the playoffs. Chicago allowed 73, 82, 83 and 73 points in the four wins over the Atlanta Hawks during their playoff series and shut down Miami in Game 1. I expect Chicago to bring its A-game defensively and they certainly match up well with Miami in what should be a close, defensive game. And notice that the Heat is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest, including the last series when Boston had 3 days of rest and blew them out in Game 3. The Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Bulls in Game 3!

05/15 08:00 PM EST NBA (501) MIAMI HEAT (502) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total.
Coach Tom Thibodeau earned that Coach of the Year trophy by bringing exceptional defense to the young Bulls. Chicago finished No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed, with 91.3 ppg, and Miami was No. 6 allowing 94.6 ppg. An even better indicator of defensive prowess is field goal shooting percentage allowed and these teams were No. 1 and 2 in the NBA during the regular season allowing 43% and .434% shooting by opponents. And we've seen that great defense all during the playoffs. Chicago allowed 73, 82, 83 and 73 points in the four wins over the Atlanta Hawks during their just completed playoff series. The Miami defense was outstanding all season, too, and was tremendous in shutting down Boston in their 5-game playoff series victory. The Under is 4-1 in the Heat's last 5 playoff games as an underdog, while the Under is 9-3 in the Bulls last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And between these teams, the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings when the Heat and Bulls show up. With so much at stake in this anticipated showdown, look for a fierce defense for Game 1. Play Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total!

05/07 05:05 PM EST NBA (721) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (722) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: Oddsmaker Error Playoff Game of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total.
A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Both Games 1 and 2 went over the total and oddsmakers haven't really adjusted. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5 overall. In fact, the Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 overall and they are 11-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City pushing it uptempo against Memphis, as well, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they have continued it in this series against the young Grizzlies. The last 6 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 6-0, and 13-3 over the total in the last 16 meetings! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total.

05/04 10:35 PM EST NBA (715) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (716) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: (715) DALLAS MAVERICKS
Reason: NBA Blowout Game of the Month: Mavericks in Game 2.
We think of Dallas as an attacking offensive team with Dirk Nowitizki and Jason Kidd, but they are actually a strong defensive team this season. There are 2 reasons for this: Dallas is a veteran team, so they don't run as much, plus the addition of 7-foot-1 Tyson Chandler this season, a strong role playing rebounder/shot blocker. Dallas is 10th in NBA in points allowed. In addition, Coach Rick Carlisle is fiery, demanding defense, and they held the Lakers to 42.9% shooting in Game 1, a 96-94 upset win. You need big bodies up front to hang with the Lakers and the experienced Mavs have it with 32-year old 7-foot Dirk Nowitzki (23 ppg, 7 rpg), 6-7 Shawn Marion (12.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg), and Chandler (10 ppg, 9.4 rpg). The Mavericks are 29-16 ATS on the road this season and 23-9-1 ATS against a team with a home winning record. They are also 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 on the road. The Lakers have been vastly overvalued at home this season, 16-29 ATS mark at the Staples Center. In a game featuring great defenses, look for another close one and grab the talented (and confident) dog. Play the Mavericks in Game 2.

05/01 1:00 PM EST NBA (707) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (708) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: Second Round Total Shocker of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Over the total. A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games playing on 1 days rest and they come into this one off that big upset of the top seeded Spurs. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in Grizzlies last 9 overall and they are 10-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City, a little more rested, pushing it uptempo against Memphis, who had that thrilling Game 6 win at home over San Antonio just two days ago. The Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they will continue it against the young Grizzlies. The Over is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and the last 5 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 5-0! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 1 Over the total.

4/28 07:35 PM NBA (529) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (530) ATLANTA HAWKS
Take: (530) 1st Round Shocker of the Year: Hawks.
The pressure is all on the visitors for this one, or they go home after opening the series as the favored higher seeded team. Again, this one likely comes down to a shooting-guard duel: If Jason Richardson and J..J. Redick can't slow Hawks Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford, they better make shots. But that hasn't happened overall with Orlando, with PG Jameer Nelson shooting just 36 percent, 25 percent from 3-point range and Hedo Turkoglu is averaging just 8.0 ppg. The Magic brought Turkoglu back to recapture that 2009 magic when they made the Finals, but he has been subpar. The Magic bench had scored just 69 points through the first four games against the Hawks, but after leading by 20-plus points for most of the game, the bench racked up 49 points and nine assists in Game 5, but this one will be on the road against a fired-up Atlanta home crowd hungry for an upset/clincher. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, and the Orlando Magic are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. Throw in the fact that the Hawks are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings with Orlando and have a first-year coach who is dying to make a name for himself, look for a straight up win by the home dog who has been the better team this whole series.

04/25 10:35 PM EST NBA (513) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (514) DENVER NUGGETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Oklahoma City is a talented young team with exceptional balance. Their offense gets all the attention with flashy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but this defense has become very good quickly. They traded for Kendrick Perkins in midseason and he's added defense and rebounding, along with 21-year old 6-10 Serge Ibaka, who has emerged as an athletic shot blocker. After giving up 60 first half points in Game 1, the Thunder held the Nuggets to 42 second half points in their 107-103 comeback win. Then in Game 2 the defense was great in a 106-89 win, allowing .391% shooting with a whopping 54-31 rebounding edge. The Thunder is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 road games and 9-4 in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. They face a small Denver frontcourt, so they should continue to control the boards. The Under is 5-1-1 in Nuggets' last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, and the Under is 18-7-2 in Nuggets last 27 overall. Plus the Under is 23-10 in Nuggets last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games and the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. An offensive show? That's what oddsmakers expect, but they have overvalued this one, which should feature plenty of intense defense with so much at stake. Play the Thunder/Nuggets Under the total in Game 4!

04/24 3:30 PM EST NBA (503) BOSTON CELTICS VS (504) NEW YORK KNICKS
Take: (503) BOSTON CELTICS
Reason: NBA Blowout Game of the Month: Celtics in Game 4.
The Knicks were feeling good about themselves after overachieving in Games 1 and 2, despite losing, but came back to earth in Game 3, getting destroyed at home. Now the series is over. This is not a very good NY team with a lot of holes and problems. Amar'e Stoudemire is likely to play but admits he's not 100%, while Chauncey Billups is a big question mark, likely out again. The Knicks had a huge edge on the boards in Game 2, but that was a bit of a fluke. They are a bad rebounding team overall, not very tall, and got a lot of bounces in Game 2, a game the Celtics seemed to sleep-walk through often. And in Game 1 Boston outrebounded the Knicks by +10 and +10 in Game 3. The Celtics are now 7-0 against New York this season. In Game 3, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 70 points, Rajon Rondo had 20 assists. No NBA team has ever come back from 0-3. Boston has won all 7 games between the teams this season and the Celtics are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in New York. Get out the brooms and play the Celtics in Game 4!

04/23 10:05 PM NBA (751) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (752) DENVER NUGGETS
Take: (751) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Reason: NBA 1st Round Game of the Year: Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City is a talented young team with exceptional balance. Offense? No. 5 in the NBA in scoring with a pair of young stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Defense? They traded for Kendrick Perkins in midseason and he's added defense and rebounding, along with 21-year old 6-10 Serge Ibaka, who has emerged as an athletic shot blocker. After giving up 60 first half points in Game 1, the Thunder held the Nuggets to 42 second half points in their 107-103 comeback win. Then in Game 2 the defense was great in a 106-89 win, allowing .391% shooting with a whopping 54-31 rebounding edge. The Thunder is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and they face a small Denver frontcourt, so they should continue to control the boards. They are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5! Denver is just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings against this team and this shapes up as a real close one. Play the Thunder!

Take: (739) BOSTON CELTICS

Reason: 1st Round Inner Circle Game of the Year: Celtics in Game 3.
The Knicks are feeling good about themselves after overachieving in Games 1 and 2, despite losing. But this is not a very good team with a lot of holes and problems. Amar'e Stoudemire is likely to play but admits he's not 100%, while Chauncey Billups is a big question mark. The Knicks had a huge edge on the boards in Game 2, but that was a bit of a fluke. They are a bad rebounding team overall, not very tall, and got a lot of bounces in Game 2, a game the Celtics seemed to sleep-walk through often. And in Game 1 Boston outrebounded the Knicks by +10. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 2 days rest. You don't find the talented Celtics as a dog very often, and note that are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Boston has won all 6 games between the teams this season and the Celtics are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings in New York. Play the Celtics in Game 3!

04/21 07:05 PM EST NBA (733) CHICAGO BULLS VS (734) INDIANA PACERS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Eastern Conference Total of the Month: Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under.
The No. 1 seeded Bulls won the first two games at home, 104-99 and 96-90, as the Bulls won the rebounding battle in those games 49-34 and 57-33! The Bulls have a young, physical frontcourt, No. 2 in the NBA in rebounding led by 6-9 Carlos Boozer (17.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg), and 26-year old 6-11 Joakim Noah (11.7 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and 26-year old 6-9 Luol Deng (17.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Chicago has the second stingiest defense in the league at 91.3 points per game and the best field goal percentage against in the league allowing 43% shooting. The Bulls 48-34 under the total, the Pacers 44-37-1 under the total -- and playoff action means even more fierce defense. The Pacers were the aggressors in Game 2 despite losing Roy Hibbert for long stretches to foul trouble, but having home court should help his foul trouble. But can they score? The Bulls have held Indiana to 41% shooting the last 10 times they've met! Look for a grind-it-out defensive game, Play the Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under the total.

04/20 08:05 PM NBA (727) DENVER NUGGETS VS (728) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Denver likes to run, but Oklahoma City has improved defense with the addition of Kendrick Perkins in the low post, blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Of course, Perkins is an offensively liability, and note the Thunder is on a 12-8 run under the total. That included three wins over this Denver team over the last two weeks, 2-1 under the total. Oklahoma City won 101-94 at Denver on April 5 holding the Nuggets to .439% shooting and a rebounding edge of 50-41. Then they met again April 8 and Denver was held to 89 points and 40% shooting in a 104-89 Oklahoma City rout. Game 1 was an uptempo affair, but I can't see that continuing. Playoff games mean so much that both teams usually bring far more defensive intensity than the regular season. And this betting number on the total has shot up from Game 1, so there is tremendous value. Denver plays its best basketball at home, but he Nuggets are 5-1-1 under the total their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the Under is 44-20-1 in the Nuggets last 65 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Play the Nuggets/Thunder Game 2 Under the total.

04/17 07:05 PM NBA EST (713) NEW YORK KNICKS VS (714) BOSTON CELTICS
1st Round Playoff Mismatch Game of the Year: Celtics (714).
It

04/13 08:05 PM NBA (513) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (514) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS .
Take: High Roller: Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total.
Final game of the season for a pair of teams long out of the playoff race. Neither play defense, with the Cavs ranked 23rd in points allowed and Washington 25th. And as far as field goal shooting defense, they are worse, ranked 25th and 27th. This being the finale, no one is going to care about defense and, like an All Star game, look for players to bad their stats by focusing on offense. The Over is 7-2 in the Wizards last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Cleveland has been more of an uptempo team since mid-season, as they have no inside defensive players or height. The over is 5-0 in the Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And what has happened when these two teams meet? The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Don't look for any defense, play the Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total.

The Oklahoma City Thunder playing as well as anyone right now. The Thunder have won three straight games, eight of the last 10 and 14 of 17. The Thunder are a five-point dog here and they have played well in that role, going 20-7 ATS the last 27 times as a 5 to 10 point dog (15-5 ATS in this role on the road). The Lakers, who had the best record since the ALL-Star game, has now lost four straight games including losses to Utah and Golden State. In their four straight losses, the Lakers have scored 90, 85,87 and 86 points respectively. The Lakers had closed the gap with Western Conference leader San Antonio, but now lead Dallas by just one game for second place and Oklahoma City by two games. I like the Thunder here on Sunday. Not only do I like the fact that they are playing extremely well while the Lakers are basically phoning in games, but the Thunder have lost four straight to LA. Oklahoma City would like nothing better than to get in the win column against the Lakers and getting five points here is just a plus. Take the Thunder in what could easily be a straight up win.

04/08 08:05 PM NBA (717) DENVER NUGGETS VS (718) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: (718) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Reason: NBA Game of the Year: Oklahoma City Thunder.
Denver is pretty much locked into the No. 5 seed in the West. This young uptempo team has impressed and overachieved since trading Carmelo Anthony, but oddsmakers are overvaluing them for this game. This is their 3rd road game in 4 games. They caught the Lakers badly banged up with a road win, and caught a Dallas team in a major slump on the road. This is a different story, playing a deep, talented, healthy and motivated Oklahoma City team that thinks it's going to be a playoff force with the addition of Kendrick Perkins at center. Oklahoma City has clinched the division, but is just a game behind Dallas for the No. 3 seed in the West. This Thunder team has it all, with a dynamite one-two offensive punch with Durant and Westbrook (No. 5 in the NBA in scoring), and now a terrific defensive punch in the low post with Perkins and 21-year old shot blocker 6-10 Serbe Ibaka. These teams just met in Denver and the Thunder won, 101-94 as a dog, sending a message. And both teams big men, Kendrick Perkins and Nene, stood in a forehead-to-forehead stare down at one point. The two had just gotten tangled up underneath the basket, bumping occurred, pushing ensued and words were exchanged. Denver plays its best basketball at home, but is 17-22 on the road. The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS last 12 meetings with Oklahoma City and 1-5 ATS the last 6 on this court. The Thunder send another message with their home fans behind them. My NBA Game of the Year: Play the Oklahoma City Thunder!

Take: (704) INDIANA PACERS
Reason: NBA Mismatch Game of the Month: Pacers.
Washington won a road game this week, but they have been a disaster away from home at 3-35. Washington has no reason to play hard against a fired up Indiana team, and the Wizards are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 vs. Eastern Conference, plus 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog. It's also the second of a back to back spot for the thin Wizards, and they are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games playing on zero days rest. Indiana has a 2 game lead on Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East and plays its best basketball at home. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Wizards are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indiana. Look for a blowout by the motivated home squad and their interim coach, who also has plenty to play for; Play the Pacers!

Take: (661) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Reason: 25-Star Bookie Buster: 76ers.
A rivalry game that both clubs always get up for. Philadelphia is motivated in other ways, as well, with an outside shot at moving up to the No. 5 seed in the East, but still needing to win to hang on to the No. 7 seed from New York. The 76ers are on a 3-1 SU/ATS run and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. They take on a Boston team that can't catch a break with injuries, a problem all season. They got Shaq back on Sunday, but only for 6 minutes as he left with a hamstring problem. They have been without center Ninad Kristic (knee injury), who may be back but is still not 100%. The Celtics squeezed out a cover against the Pistons, but they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win. Overrated by oddsmakers? The Celtics are 15-41-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a SU win of more than 10 points! The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play the 76ers!

Take: Under

Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Clippers Under the total.
Since big man Kendrick Perkins arrived, Oklahoma City has been a different team defensively: The Under is 8-3 for the Thunder's last 11 overall. Oklahoma City can play any style, but this is the second of a back to back spot after battling the Blazers last night. The Clippers had to run the floor with the uptempo Suns last night and wouldn't mind slowing the pace down, as well. The Under is 9-3 in the Clippers last 12 vs. Western Conference. I see a defensive battle, Play the Thunder/Clippers Under the total.

Is the big stage of New York sending Carmello Anthony to the shrink yet? It sure looks like it the way the Knicks have played since Mello came to club with Chancey Billups in a trade. The Knicks are in the midst of a six-game losing streak and now must play one of the best in the east in Orlando. Dwight Howard has been a big thorn in the Knicks side, averaging 25.8 ppg, 14 rebounds and 67.1% shooting during the Magic's 6-game win streak over the Knicks. While the Magic look for a seventh straight win over NY, they are also doing well against the spread, going 5-1 ATS their last six vs NY. In addition, the game has gone OVER in their last six matchups. Furthermore, in the last six matchups Orlando has scored 111, 116, 112, 118, 118 and 114. Not exactly like NY has found a way to stop this club. Which brings us to today's game. The oddsmakers install the Magic as a slight 1 1/2 point favorite, which I find strange considering the Magics' domination of the Knicks. Plus they post a total of 206 1/2! The Knicks don't look to be in any danger of losing their playoff spot, but limping into the post season is no way a team wants to enter the postseason. I'm going with Orlando here on Monday. The Knicks can't beat them, the Knicks can't beat anyone of late.

03/23 04:35 PM NBA (759) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (760) BOSTON CELTICS
Take: (759) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Reason: 25-Star NBA Bookie Buster: Grizzlies.
Boston has trouble with young, athletic teams and they face a talented young Memphis club that is motivated. Memphis is trying to hold on to the No. 8 playoff seed in the West. Memphis is on a 5-3 SU/ATS run, winning as a dog at Dallas, 104-103, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Memphis is trying to reach the postseason for the first time since the 2005-2006 season, led by Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo and hard working Zach Randolph. The Grizzlies are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Boston comes home from a 3-game road trip, and it was a grind, getting blown out at Houston, then nail-biting late wins at New Orleans and New York. They come off that emotional win at the rival Knicks, with several players on both sides needing stitches. Teams home from road trips aren't always focused that first game back and they face a hungry, athletic young opponent. The Celtics are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. And the Grizzlies are 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings, including 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston! Play the Grizzlies.

Take: (651) CHICAGO BULLS

Reason: High Roller: Chicago Bulls.
Chicago is No. 2 in the NBA in team defense allowing 91.2 ppg and .427% shooting by opponents. This team has really impressive under first-year coach Tom Thibodeau. They've been even better since getting Joakim Noah back, out since December 15th after thumb surgery. The team went 22-8 without him and still is No. 2 in the NBA in rebounds, even though he is the leading rebounder. Noah is the Bulls' heart and soul, bringing his intensity and averages of 14 points and 11.7 rebounds. Chicago is on a 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS run and are fired up for that No. 1 seed in the East. In a win over the Wizards, 98-79, coach Thibodeau talked afterwared about their poor second quarter defense! This is a highly motivated team that is clicking. "We have to stay consistent and hungry," Luol Deng said. "It has been a great year. We want to end it strong." The Bulls ran out of gas the last game, a loss at Indiana playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the second of a back to back spot. They've had two full days to rest and prepare for this one. Atlanta is pretty much locked into the No. 5 seed in the East, with less urgency than the Bulls, plus they've been out of sync, riding a 3-6 SU/ATS run. They lost 3 of those games as a favorite. They will be no match for Derrek Rose and this powerful frontcourt. The Bulls are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play the Bulls!

The Grizzlies are holding onto 8th place in the western conference playoff picture. They hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Rockets and two game lead over both the Suns and Jazz. Therefore, there is not room for losing games today against a team that's nipping at your heals for your spot in the playoffs. I'm taking the Grizzlies today. The get a day off to prepare for tonight's game and after an excellent stretch back in February that saw the club win six of seven games, they have cooled off a bit. Memphis is just 5-5 SU in its last 10 game. Good news for the Grizzlies here is that they are 26-6 ATS in their last 30 games against the western conference. Meanwhile, the Jazz have the look of a team that doesn't really care about making the playoffs. Utah has won two straight games, but they are 5-11 SU their last 16 games. The Favorite has had the best of this series of late, covering nine of the last 13 games. What I like about Memphis is that they have played with the attitude that they want to make the playoffs. The Jazz, well, they traded away one of their best players while they held a playoff spot. Doesn't say much for the club's push for a the playoffs. The Grizzlies are tough at home, going 7-2 ATS their last nine games. I don't expect much of a fight out of the Jazz here on Monday. I'm sticking with the team that wants to win and that's Memphis.

03/19 05:05 PM NBA (505) BOSTON CELTICS VS (506) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: March Total of the Month: Celtics/Hornets Under the total.
Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA meet: Boston is No. 2 in points allowed (91 ppg), New Orleans is No. 4 (93 ppg). They are also in the Top 8 in field goal shooting defense. The Celtics prefer not to run, especially in the second of a back to back spot like they find themselves in here. The Under is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston has had its defensive game face on, riding a 5-1 run under the total. New Orleans has little depth, which is why they play a slow pace, scoring the fourth fewest points allowed per game (94.8 ppg). The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-4 under the total in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. For New Orleans, the Under is 18-8 in Hornets last 26 home games and 40-19 under the total in the Hornets last 59 overall. And when these teams meet: A perfect 5-0 under the total the last 5, including an 83-81 Hornets win at Boston earlier this season. Play the Celtics/Hornets Under the total.

Take: (619) DALLAS MAVERICKS

Reason: Road Warrior Game of the Year: Mavericks.
The Mavericks are trying to hold on to the No. 2 slot in the West. They have had a tough stretch against good teams, but have had little trouble blowing out bad teams. The Mavericks on a 20-4 SU, 13-10-1 ATS run. Dallas is playing defense this season behind demanding coach Rick Carlisle largely because of the addition of 7-1 Tyson Chandler (10 ppg, 9.4 rpg), who has always been a role player/shot blocker/rebounder. They are 10th in the NBA in points allowed (96 ppg). This is the second of a back to back spot, but the deep Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State doesn't play any defense, as we saw the last game, giving up 129 in a 10-point loss to Sacramento. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams and the visitors are super-motivated for this stretch run. Play the Mavericks.

Take: (538) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Reason: High Roller: Blazers.
Dallas has not been covering, on a 1-5 ATS run. They haven't been winning, either, losing 3 of the last 5 games, including a showdown at home with the Lakers, losing 96-91. The Mavericks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Portland is flying a bit under the radar, on a 4-2 SU/ATS run while getting healthy, with Marcus Camby and Brandon Roy back. Even more impressive is that all of those games but one were on the road. Now they come home after a 4-game trip and the Blazers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog. Portland is home, matches up well and the underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Play the Blazers.

Inner Circle TV Game of the Month (Heat) : Heat looking for a bit of redemption tonight after the beating they took at the hands of the Spurs back on March 4, 125-95. The Heat have since gotten back on track after that five-game losing streak with wins over the Lakers and Grizzlies. One thing I'm looking at here tonight is that the Spurs really have no reason to push this game. They have virtually locked-up the best record in the west with a seven-game lead over the Mavericks and a six-game lead in the NBA over Boston. However, the Heat want to prove they are back on track and also would like some payback for that embarrassment at San Antonio. We have the best team in the NBA and one of the best in the Heat so you can really make a case for either side. But I'm looking for something else and I see motivation as a big factor for this game. And all that MO is on the side of the Heat tonight.

Take: (701) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Reason: High Roller: LA Lakers.
This is not the same LA team that lost to the Cavaliers right before the break. They are putting their game faces on now. The Lakers didn't beat the San Antonio Spurs, they pummeled them, leading by as many as 32 points in a 99-83 victory Sunday. It was a statement game and the Lakers were free on offense and grinding on defense. Then they went to Atlanta and rolled, 101-87, with another dominant defensive performance, winning their eighth consecutive game. They held the Spurs to 36% shooting and 39.8% shooting by Atlanta. The Lakers have been on a roll since their collapse going into the All-Star break. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson credited Chuck Person, whom he promoted to full-time assistant this season. The Lakers were a mess a couple of weeks ago, but since then they've given up an average of 87 points a game. Four of their games have been against playoff-caliber teams (Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Portland and San Antonio). "After the All-Star break, we brought it to their attention that we have to commit to it on a nightly basis or we could go back to allowing teams to just penetrate our defense with pick-and-rolls," Person said. So now comes another high profile, statement game and the Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They take on a stumbling Miami team on a 0-5 SU/ATS run, short on confidence. More important, they are short in the frontcourt as bigger teams have smacked them around all season. That's a huge frontcourt edge the Lakers will exploit. And it's a revenge game, with Miami embarrassing the Lakers at home on Xmas Day, 96-80. Play the LA Lakers!

Take: (620) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Reason: NBA Bounce Back Game of the Year: Spurs.
A tough situational spot for Detroit, an unhappy, dysfunctional team that has lost 8 of 11 games. This team is 7-24 on the road. Detroit is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. This is a tough 3-game road trip and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference...and this is the BEST of the WEST! They take on an angry San Antonio team that just had a 22-game home win streak end in embarrassing fashion the last game. There were no tears shed in the aftermath of the Spurs

Take: (506) NEW YORK KNICKS

Reason: Non-Conference Game of the Month (Knicks) : It's pretty evident that the Utah Jazz have folded for this season when they traded away one of their best offensive weapons a few weeks ago. Despite a 2-8 mark in their last 10 games, the Jazz are tied for 9th in the western conference with Phoenix, just 1 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. However, unlike Phoenix who has been playing decent, the Jazz have not. And as bad as the Jazz have been, they have been horrible for bettors, going 8-23 ATS their last 31 games. Moreover, the Jazz are 2-7 ATS against the East and more specifically, 0-5 ATS their last five against the Atlantic division. Meanwhile there is great optimism in the Big Apple after acquiring Carmello Anthony. The Knicks are 6th in the east, four games back of Atlanta for the five spot. And if you are worried about the Knicks going on no days rest, having won at Atlanta on Sunday, 92-79, then don't be. The Knicks are 13-3-1 ATS the last 17 times they have played in the second of back to back games. The Jazz haven't fared well in this series either, going 3-13 ATS their last 16 meetings with NY and 0-5 ATS in their last five trips out east. Don't expect any kind of effort here out of the Jazz. They have the look of a team that has packed-in the season and the Knicks high scoring offense will blow them out tonight.

The Sixers had been entrenched in 7th play in the East, but now loop like they are ready to improve that ranking. Philadelphia, which once owned the worst record in the east through Dec 3rd have turned things around and since Jan 30th are an NBA best 11-4. Meanwhile, the Warriors have lost three of the first four games on this seven game road swing and now have to play at Philly, which has won 19 of its last 25 home games. The Sixers have also done well against the west, going 5-2 ATS their last seven games. Philly could be the hottest team in the NBA right now and I like that here on Sunday. I see this game as a major mismatch as the Sixers easily handle the road weary Warriors.

Non-Conf GOY (Celtics): It's East vs West here on Monday as the Celtics continue their west coast trip here in Utah. The Celtics really laid an egg on Thursday in Denver, scoring just 75 points and losing by 14. Boston did recover on Saturday with a road win at the Clippers, 99-92. The Celtics got a much needed day off on Sunday to prepare for tonight's contest. The Utah Jazz were so good early in the season and just as bad since January. Since January 17th, Utah is 5-15 S/U and 6-14 ATS. And that includes a recent run which has seen the club go 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS. To everyone's surprise, the Celtics dealt one of the best interior big men in the business in Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenand Krstic. That played a big part in the team's lopsided loss at Denver, so we can really throw that performance out. The Jazz are also without their All-Star guard in Deron Williams who was also traded last week to New Jersey. It's obvious the Jazz have tossed in the towel for this season and are looking to rebuild. But not tonight as the Celtics win this one going away.

Take: (502) CHICAGO BULLS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Bookie Buster: Bulls.
Chicago is No. 2 in the NBA in team defense allowing 92.4 ppg and .429% shooting by opponents. They opened a dog here, remarkable in that they are 25-4 at home! This team has really impressive under first-year coach Tom Thibodeau. And it's a big week, as Joakim Noah is back, out since December 15th after thumb surgery. The team went 22-8 without him and still is No. 2 in the NBA in rebounds, even though he is the leading rebounder. Noah will assume his role as the Bulls' heart and soul, bringing his intensity and averages of 14 points and 11.7 rebounds. The team and the home crowd will be fired up with LeBron James and the Heat in town. The Bulls are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, including a 90-79 win over Boston and a 99-96 victory over the Heat. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Heat is 4-10-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Chicago. Play the Bulls!

Take: (717) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Reason: Western Conference Game of the Month: Thunder.
San Antonio is the marquee "name" team here, with Tim Duncan, a slew of titles the last decade and the best record in the NBA this season. Oklahoma City is the young, new kid on the block, undervalued by oddsmakers, as the Thunder is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This is a talented young team, led by All Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, plus Serge Ibaka and James Harden who participated in the All-Star festivities. They are 2-1 ATS the last three times they've been a dog. This is a first-place team with an impressive road record (16-11), plus plenty of frontcourt punch with Durant, forward Jeff Green and veteran forward Nick Collison. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Look for a close one, Play the Oklahoma City Thunder!

Take: (508) MIAMI HEAT

Reason: Trend Tracker Game of the Year: Miami Heat.
A long road trip for Sacramento to start the second half of the season, the longest trips you can make in the NBA. The Kings are 6-18 on the road and in last place in the division. Sacramento is a young team that doesn't play any defense, allowing .473% shooting, 27th in the league. They take on a Miami team that is young and healthy, a dominant home team (20-5) and defensively they are No. 1 in the league allowing .426% shooting. Miami has owned this team, as the Kings are 2-18 ATS in the last 20 meetings! The Heat are also 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Pacific. The Kings are on an 0-2 SU/ATS run, getting blown out by Oklahoma City and Dallas, both on the road. In fact, this is their 4th straight road game, part of a 7-game road trip. And Miami has been the House of Horrors for this game, as the Kings are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Play the Miami Heat!

Take: (503) DALLAS MAVERICKS

Reason: NBA Inner Circle TV Game of the Month: Mavericks.
Dallas has a better road record than the Suns have at home! They had a 10-game winning streak that ended in Denver, but that impressive road trip ended with a 106-102 victory at Houston. The Mavericks enjoyed three days away from game action after that trip, with Peja Stojakovic stepping up with a 22-point game at Houston and Tyson Chandler a force at both ends of the floor. Chandler was an offensive machine on the three-game trip, averaging 15 points and hitting 19-of-23 shots from the field. He has averaged 13.3 points and 10.6 rebounds in seven February games. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Don't pay any attention to the Phoenix winning streak, beating Golden State (twice) and Utah (twice). That was sandwiched around a home loss to the Kings as a 9-point favorite. The Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play the Mavericks!

02/16 06:05 PM NBA (721) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (722) UTAH JAZZ
Take: (722) UTAH JAZZ
Reason: 25-Star 1st Half Game of the Year: Utah Jazz.
There is plenty of talent on this Utah Jazz squad for new coach Tyron Corbin and they are 17-12 at home. Jazz point guard Deron Williams enjoyed his weekend out of the spotlight. "It was good to get a couple of days to rest and practice," he said. "We just have to go back out and wins some games." Bell pointed out that the team had an excellent weekend of practice. "It was intense," he admitted. "Guys were going after each other. It reminded me of a preseason practice -- the level of excitement and energy we had and that's a good sign." They take on a Golden State team that is 6-18 on the road and they are in the second of a back to back spot, heading out on the road just before the All Star break. Golden State is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing .472% shooting (fourth worst) and 106 ppg (third most). The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Warriors are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Utah. Look for a huge effort by the home team for the new coach to get him a win right before the break. Play the Jazz!

2/15 05:05 PM NBA (507) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS VS (508) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: (507) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Reason: NBA Dog of the Month: Bobcats.
Chicago is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers with this betting number, and it's far too high. Chicago is home from a long 5-game trip, including losses at Portland and Golden State as a favorite. Teams home from long road trips aren't always ready to go that first game back, dealing with family concerns and getting accustomed to the time zone changes. The Bulls are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, in addition to being 14-32-1 ATS in their last 47 vs. the NBA Southeast. Charlotte continues to overachieve since Paul Silas took over as coach, including a win at Atlanta as a +8 dog. The Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog! They match up well, and notice that the Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago, 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. An excellent spot for the big dog. Play the Bobcats!

02/11 04:05 PM NBA (805) SAN ANTONIO SPURS (806) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Take: (805) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: Road Warrior Game of the Month: Spurs.
San Antonio loves to go uptempo, as we saw the last game, putting 111 up on the Raptors. DeJuan Blair matched a career high by scoring 16 of his 28 points in the fourth quarter, George Hill had 18 points and the San Antonio Spurs won their fourth straight game. San Antonio is 7-1 SU/ATS the last 8 games, deep, talented and showing no signs of slowing down. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are also 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win! Philly is 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS the last four games, in the middle of the pack in most NBA stats, with veteran Elton Brand working with a lot of young players. The 76ers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play the Spurs!

02/09 04:05 PM NBA (709) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (710) TORONTO RAPTORS
Take: over the total.
Reason: NBA Bookie Buster Total of the Year: Spurs/Raptors Over.
San Antonio is No. 6 in the NBA in scoring and second in three-point shooting, bombing away from beyond the arc at a sizzling .392%. They recently put 113 up on Sacramento, sailing over the total by 17 points. Who wouldn't want a BENCH of George Hill, Antonio McDyess, rookie Tiago Splitter and Gary Neal? The Spurs are off to their fastest start in history. They face a Toronto team that loves to run the court, but plays no defense, giving up 104.9 ppg, sixth worse in the NBA. Neither team is very good defensively at the three-pointer, and Toronto is 2-1 over the total its last three home games. Jose Calderon tied a career and franchise record for assists, and with Amir Johnson playing a game that coach Jay Triano lauded as "almost perfect," the Raptors beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 111-100, breaking off a 13-game losing streak. Andrea Bargnani had 30 points. Look for both teams to run the court all night long with little defense. Play the Spurs/Raptors Over the total.

The Golden State Warriors will attempt to match their longest winning streak of the season with a win over the Warriors on Monday. The Warriors are playing much better defensively of late, holding their last three opponents to 81, 94 and 90 points respectfully. The Warriors turned a close game at half against the Bulls on Saturday into an easy win by holding Chicago to just 18 4th quarter points. Meanwhile, Phoenix saw its own modest three game winning streak come to an end with a home loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday, 111-107. The Suns haven't fared particularly well against the Western Conference, going 4-9-1 ATS their last 15 games. Moreover, against the Pacific division they are 1-3-1 ATS their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have feasted on their Pacific division foes, going 17-5 ATS their last 22 games. The Warriors also play well as a favorite at home, going 8-3 their last 11 games. The Warriors are playing some of their best defense of the season and that will translate to a win tonight over the Suns.

Take: (502) ORLANDO MAGIC

Reason: Eastern Conference TV Game of the Year: Magic.
The Heat and Magic have split two meetings this season, each winning at home. Despite a blowout win over the hapless Cavs the last game, Miami is just 3-6 ATS the last 9 games. Orlando is 3

Take: (505) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Reason: Road Warrior Game of the Month: Spurs.
San Antonio is having a dominant season with the best record, with a sizzling offense averaging 104.4 points and outscoring opponents by +7.5 per game -- tops in the NBA. And offense is a huge problem for a Portland team with injuries, ranked 24th in scoring while shooting .438% as a team -- fourth worst in the league. This is the start of a road trip for San Antonio, playing nine games in 17 nights, but this is the first game of the trip. The Spurs head into the trip at 40-7, the best record in franchise history to this point. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. San Antonio is on a 9-1 SU, 7-2-1 ATS run, while the Blazers are on a 0-2 SU/ATS run, even losing to the Kings as a 7-point favorite. With rookie point guard Armon Johnson still on assignment with Idaho Stampede of the NBA Development League, the Blazers had eight healthy bodies for practice Monday, so scrimmaging was again limited to four-on-four. Center Marcus Camby is out along with Brandon Roy. The Trail Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Trail Blazers are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Play the Spurs!

Clippers leading scorer, Eric Gordon, is out and this will be a major problem for LA seeing as he helped take off some of the load for Blake Griffin. On the other side of the coin the Bucks have gotten Brandon Jennings back and are riding a three game winning streak. The Clippers have been tough at the Staples Center, winning eight straight at home. But that was with Gordon and his 24.1 ppg will be difficult to replace. The Bucks have also been decent to bettors, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. Can't really say the same for the Clips who are just 1-4 ATS their last five. I'm taking the Bucks here on Monday mainly because I think this Clippers club will not be the same until Gordon returns after the All-Star break. Griffin will get his points, but the will be tough points with a very good Andrew Bogut contesting him in the middle.

Hornets are one of, if not the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 10 of their last 11 games. Bettors have done really well with New Orleans also, covering three of the last five and 14 of the last 21. The Hornets have been good on the road, going 13-10 ATS while 17 of their 24 aways games have gone UNDER the total. Not surprising at all here as the Hornets have the league's top rated scoring defense, allowing just 91.19 points per game. The Hornets were even stingier during their 10 game win streak, allowing just 85ppg. Compare that to the Suns, who are next to last in the NBA in points allowed with a 107.04 ppg average. The Suns saw their three game losing skid come to an end with a nice win over the Celtics at home on Friday, 88-71. Still, prior to the Celtics contest the Suns have covered just 7 of their first 20 home games. The Suns have covered the last four of five in this series, however before that run the Hornets had rattled off eight straight covers against Phoenix. I like the Hornets here on Sunday. Trevor Ariza has proven he can stop high scoring guards so he will give Suns fits all night. Take the Hornets here as they frustrate Phoenix from start to finish.

Take: (820) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Bookie Buster: LA Lakers.
The Lakers responded to defensive criticism from Jerry West by blasting the Jazz, 120-91. That was actually their second straight double digit win. Coach Phil Jackson said, "He's right," adding his players actually can defend if they "do a lot of things right." The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Last place Sacramento comes to town, a team that is 4-16 on the road 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference. If Jerry West thinks the Lakers defense is spotty, take a close look at the Kings: .47% shooting allowed, 25th in the NBA, while the Lakers allow .437 shooting (third best in the league). The veteran Lakers have had two full days to rest and the Kings are on a 1-3 SU/ATS run. This is not a big Sacramento team and in the last game, a loss to Charlotte, Kwame Brown, the maligned No. 1 pick in the 2001 NBA draft, grabbed a season-high 18 rebounds! The next seven games are against teams with winning records, beginning Friday night at the Los Angeles Lakers, so watch this team go into a tailspin. Play the LA Lakers!

Take: (717) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Reason: 15-Star Situational Mismatch Game of the Month: Spurs.
The Spurs rebounded from their worst offensive performance of the season to charge to a 113-102 victory over the defensively-challenged Warriors. In the process, the Spurs

Take: UNDER

Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Clippers/Mavericks Under the total.
The powerhouse offensive team against the powerhouse defensive team! The Clippers have a fine young offense, but note that the Under is 14-5 in Clippers last 19 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. They face a team that has transformed this season under Coach Rick Carlisle into a unit that has been impressive on defense, 10th in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed and sixth in points allowed (94 ppg). They come off an 87-86 win over New Jersey, part of a 5-2 run under the total. Dallas has the big men in the frontcourt to throw at young Blake Griffin and the under is 11-5 in Mavericks last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And look at the recent history of these teams: The Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall, plus the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. Look for a defensive game, Play the Clippers/Mavericks Under the total.

This is a matchup of very similar teams and therefore the Thunder seem to come out on top. Really because they contain Hornets standout guard Chris Paul. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook has gotten the best of his Hornets counterpart, Paul, outscoring him in both meetings this season. The Thunder have covered four straight in this series including both games this season. Both games were very similar, low scoring with the Thunder winning straight up at home, 95-89, and then winning and covering at New Orleans, 97-92. My only consideration for not making this an even bigger play on the Thunder is the recent play of New Orleans. The Hornets have won eight straight and covered six of those eight. Still, some teams just don't matchup well against others and this is one I have looked at because of the better guard play by the Thunder. Paul is a big reason for the Hornets success and if you can keep him contained, as the Thunder have done, you will beat this team. I'll take the points here on Monday and not be at all surprised by another straight up Thunder win.

Take: (518) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Thunder.
Oklahoma City has had 2 full days to rest for this one, home from a lousy two-game trip, losses at the Lakers and Nuggets by 7 and 5 points. They need to win, locked in a tight battle for first place with Utah. Oklahoma City is 15-6 at home and takes on a tired New York team, playing its third game in four nights and the second of a back to back road situation. New York went to Texas this week to play Houston (104-89 loss), played at San Antonio last night and now makes the trip to Oklahoma City. And this defense has been getting shredded, giving up 131, 93, 129 and 104 in a recent 4-game stretch (all losses, 1-3 ATS). The Thunder on the run is one of the prettiest sights in the NBA and they will be this game against uptempo New York. The Thunder is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference and the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with New York. Play the Oklahoma City Thunder!

Take: (817) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Reason: TV Game of the Month: LA Lakers.
Both teams have some problems this week, but only one has tons of talent. The Lakers' defense was so yielding the last game at Dallas that Coach Phil Jackson called a timeout with 31.1 seconds left in the third quarter rather than wait for the period to end. Jackson immediately got into the face of Lamar Odom, who had drifted once again to the wrong spot, opening the door for a three-point shot by Sasha Pavlovic that gave the Mavericks an 11-point lead. Jackson and Odom exchanged words, most of it Jackson directing his ire at Odom. The Mavericks shot 54.5% from the field in the third quarter, 57.1% (four for seven) from three-point range. Overall, the Mavericks shot 55% to the Lakers' 54.3%. "Our defense was bad, real bad," Odom said. well the defense has been better of late, as the Lakers have won 8 of the last 10 games. The Nuggets have their own concerns with the Carmelo Anthony trade getting nixed this week, though he will is likely to be traded within the next month. The Nuggets are 9-26-6 ATS in their last 41 games following a ATS win and smallish up front, something the Lakers will take advantage of. Denver scored 118 the last time they met, a win, and the angry Lakers should have their game faces on after getting chewed out by the coach. Play the LA Lakers.

Take: (714) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Reason: NBA Blowout Game of the Year: Spurs.
A year ago, the Spurs limped into the season

Take: (502) MIAMI HEAT

Reason: 25-Star Bookie Buster: Miami Heat.
Atlanta hasn't been playing any defense, as Hawks coach Larry Drew admits there has been signs of slippage lately. It reached a low point for the Hawks on Saturday when they offered little resistance during a 112-106 loss to Houston. Only Phoenix, which beat Atlanta 118-114 on Nov. 7, has scored more points against the Hawks this season. Houston made 47 of 87 shots (54 percent) while scoring every which way. The Rockets had 20 fastbreak points and 56 points in the paint. Atlanta is in a tough situation, playing its third game in four nights. Miami is rested, getting playmaker Lebron James back and are hungry for a win. They come home from a lousy 5-game road trip where they lost LeBron and the last three games. Beginning Tuesday night against Atlanta, three of the Heat's next four games are at home, with just one road game -- a trip to New York's Madison Square Garden -- between now and Jan. 31. The injury has allowed Mike Miller and Eddie House to see more time and they are fine role players off the pine. Look for a fired up home crowd with LeBron back and for a huge effort by the home team to end this 3-game skid against the tired Hawks. Play the Heat.

Take: (504) ATLANTA HAWKS

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has had 2 full days off and playing great basketball, on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run. They even won as a dog at Utah, blowing the Jazz out. Joe Johnson started slow, but has heated up since recovering from his right elbow surgery. Reigning Sixth Man Award winner Jamal Crawford has found his form in last two weeks after slow start and back injury. He regularly provides lift with scoring punch off the bench and his assist and free-throw rates are up from last season. They also have an athletic frontcourt with Josh Smith and Al Horford and take on a tired Houston team playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, plus the second of a back to back spot. Houston has a lot of problems defensively, giving up .467% shooting (22nd in the NBA), plus the Rockets are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days rest! The Rockets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Southeast while the Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Look for a big win by the home team. Play the Hawks!

Take: UNDER

Reason: High Roller Total: Bulls/Pistons Under.
The Chicago Bulls have a first-year coach in Tom Thibodeau, who ran Boston

Take: (505) MIAMI HEAT

Reason: NBA Powerhouse Pounder: Miami Heat.
What a mess in Denver. Carmelo Anthony said expects to formally meet with Nuggets executives Josh Kroenke and Masai Ujiri this week to get clarification on his future. Reports have been flying for a week now about whether he's been traded or not, plus they the Nuggets are considering moving Chauncey Billups, a Denver native, out of town. It's almost certain the Nuggets will trade Anthony by the NBA's Feb. 24 trade deadline. Despite a blowout win over the defenseless Suns, the Nuggets are still 1-3 SU/ATS the last 4 games playing bad basketball. In fact, they were favored in all four and lost straight up to the Clippers, Kings and Hornets. Now a super-talented Miami team comes to town, one motivated as they just took over the top seed in the East over Boston. Another factor is that Denver doesn't play defense and has no one to match up defensively with Wade or LeBron. Miami is second in the NBA in points allowed (92.2 ppg) and tops in field goal shooting defense (.423%). The visitors will get out in front and Carmelo will pack it in in the second half as he gets booed at home for the third time in a week. Play the Miami Heat!

Take: (512) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: Blazers.
The Knicks are a long way from home and they come off a loss at the Lakers (108-97). This is the 3rd game in a 4-game West Coast trip, and the first of a back to back spot (at Utah Wednesday). The offense is fine, but the defense allows 106.3 ppg (28th). Mike D'Antoni made references to a Phoenix letdown: "I just didn't think we were sharp," he said. "I was a little worried after Phoenix having an emotional letdown and I think we did. Although this is L.A., they shouldn't have but we did." The Knicks were murdered on the boards, 61-42. They are still without Danilo Gallinari (knee), and Shawne Williams started in his place. They take on a Portland Trail Blazers team that just had its 8-game home win streak snapped by LeBron James and the Heat in overtime. The Blazers are a good defensive team (94.8 ppg allowed, 9th in NBA) and the offense has 6-11 LaMarcus Aldridge (20.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Brandon Roy (16.6 ppg), point guard Andre Miller (12.5 ppg). And Marcus Camby has pulled down 13, 20, 8, 6 and 14 rebounds the last 5 games! The Blazers are 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS at home. The Blazers, behind 29 points from Brandon Roy, won 100-95 at NY in October and should own the glass against the tired and defenseless Knicks. Play the Blazers.

Huge advantage here to the Bulls with their backcourt star of Derrick Rose. Rose has been a thorn in the side of the Pistons since he came in the league. Rose averaged 21ppg and 59% shooting against the Pistons last year and after two meetings this season is averaging 31 ppg. Unfortunately for the Pistons, they have no playmaker in their backcourt to match the talent of Rose. At the United Center Rose has given the Pistons even more fits, averaging 25.8 ppg and 62.5% shooting from the field. The Bulls also own the league's top scoring defense and that will put the clamps on this Pistons club that just doesn't have the guard play. The Pistons had a brief three-game west coast road trip that saw the club go 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS including a blowout by the Lakers by 25 and the Suns by 17. Meanwhile, the Bulls are coming off an impressive home win over the Celtics, holding Boston to just 79 points in the 90-79 win. The combination of the stingy Bulls defense and the Pistons inability to stop Rose is a formula for a Chicago blowout win on Monday.

Take: (806) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Reason: Revenge Game of the Year: 76ers.
Philadelphia has been undervalued on a 5-2 ATS run and they have been home all week, fresh off a blowout win over the Wizards. They are in the Top 10 defensively in points allowed and field goal shooting defense. This is the second straight road game for Chicago, off a loss at New Jersey, 96-94, as a 5-point favorite. The Bulls are great at home, but a .500 road team (8-8). The Bulls had been beating up on weaklings, with a victory at Detroit before home wins over Milwaukee, New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto. Their 90-81 victory over the Nets on New Year's Eve in Chicago was the only victory by single digits during their streak. The Bulls are without frontcourt force Joakim Noah and allowed 49% shooting to the Nets. The Sixers, who are now 9-6 at home, 14-21 overall, received 10 points and 10 rebounds from Andres Nocioni and 17 points from Elton Brand the last game. Their worst defeat of the season was to these Bulls when they tallied just 76 points, their worst offensive output of the season, an embarrassing 121-76 defeat. It was the middle of a long road trip and their toughest stretch of the season, sandwiched between the Lakers, Magic and Celtics. Look for a big revenge effort by the home team against the short-handed visitors. Play the 76ers.

Take: (704) ORLANDO MAGIC

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Magic.
The Orlando Magic is on a tear since making that big trade. Before the trade: 94 ppg, since the trade: 105 ppg. With Hedo Turkoglu running the offense, Orlando is on a 6-0 SU/ATS run. "This is a good fit for me," he said. "I feel comfortable. All I have to do is play hard here." The Bucks are a poor offensive team (90 ppg), last in the NBA, and last in field goal shooting (41%). Brandon Jennings believes mid-January is a good target date for his return from surgery on his left foot but won't play in this one. Milwaukee is in a terrible situational handicapping spot, playing the second of a back to back road spot (at mighty Miami last night), while the red hot home team is rested. This shapes up as another blowout win by the talented and hungry home team against an ailing visitor that can't shoot. Play the Bucks.

Take: over

Reason: 25-Star High Roller Total: Knicks/Spurs Over the total.
Don't see any defense in this one. The big bad Spurs are on a 4-0 SU/ATS run and 2-1 over the total their last three road games, with scores of 113-112 and 123-101. This is the start of a 3-game road trip, but this deep team has had 2 full days off. They match up well with an uptempo New York team that doesn't defend the three-pointer well (21st in the NBA) and San Antonio is lights out with a sizzling 40% from beyond the arc, easily tops in the NBA. The Knicks allow .467 shooting overall, which is 24th in the NBA, a small team that prefers to push it up the court with newcomer Ray Felton, who has been a great addition. New York is No. 1 in points scored in the NBA (107.2 ppg) but 29th in points allowed. San Antonio is 10-2 on the road and the New York crowd will want to see an offensive show with a Western powerhouse in town. Play the Spurs/Knicks Over the total.

Take: (505) NEW YORK KNICKS

Reason: December Game of the Month: NY Knicks.
Miami is full of confidence after its big Xmas Day win at Los Angeles, a game they were supremely focused for. Now they come home to face the Knicks, certainly not a marquee game, but a long road trip home. They face a red-hot NY Knick team that is on a 10-3 SU/ATS run, winning 4 times as a dog during that stretch. They are also 4-1 ATS their last 5 as a dog. With the influx of defensive-minded players like point guard Raymond Felton and center Ronny Turiaf and the infusion of Amar'e Stoudemire's toughness and stated mission to protect the rim, the Knicks (18-12) are slowly turning into a very capable defensive squad. Just ask Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, the NBA's preeminent defensive guru who tipped his hat to the Knicks' stingy Christmas Day defense during which they held his team to 12 fourth-quarter points -- four in the period's first 10 minutes. That followed Wednesday's lockdown of the offensively gifted Thunder, held to 38 percent shooting. Miami plays tough defense, too, so this one shapes up as a close one, so grab the points with the hungry, up and coming young Knicks. Play the NY Knicks!

While these are two of the worst teams in the NBA, we do see some life out of the Clippers. LA has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, the Kings are playing more like jesters these days, losers of eight straight games. In fact, since the Kings opened the season with a 3-1 mark, they have gone 2-21 since. And, bettors haven't fared well with them either, as Sacramento has covered just three of its last 15 games. The Clippers Blake Griffin continues to shine like the club hoped he would last year before his season ending injury. Griffin is now averaging 21.1 points per game and 12.4 rebounds per game, leading all rookies. Griffin's rookie counterpart on the Kings, DeMarcus Cousins, seems like he's headed in the opposite direction. While Cousins ranks second in stats to Griffin, he was benched last Thursday from the starting lineup and has already been kicked out of practice once. These clubs have met twice this season and both have resulted in Clipper SU and ATS wins. The Clippers won 100-82 and 98-91, both at home. I'm not really sure how the Kings could be installed as a one-point favorite here when they can't even win S/U these days. Plus we have a Clippers team playing with lots more confidence. I'm taking the Clippers who look like a team that wants to win while the Kings look like a team just playing out the games.

Take: (706) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: LA Lakers.
The new look Miami Heat are full of themselves again, riding a 12-game win streak that was halted, a 98-96 home loss to Dallas. During that 12-game win streak, they didn't play any good teams. As soon as they face a very good Dallas team, they fold up. More than folding up, what happens is this team gets outrebounded, which has happened all season as they are a relatively short team. Prior to that win streak Dallas beat them, and before that they lost to Orlando, a team that can pound the glass, as well as two early losses to Boston, getting pounded up front. That will be a problem here in this Xmas Day showdown against the tall Laker frontcourt. Kobe Bryant loves a challenge and the limelight and he will not want to see LeBron James come into his building and steal a win. Pau Gasol said, fans are excited about the game Saturday like it's, "Game 1 of the NBA Finals, it seems like." And the Lakers were pretty good last June in Game 1 of the Finals, blowing out Boston. The Lakers took Wednesday off but went back to practice Thursday, working hard to forget the embarrassing loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. It was a good practice because the Lakers had their full complement of players participate. Bryant, who declined to talk to the media, practiced, as did Andrew Bynum. "We worked intensely and that was probably one of the best days that we've had all year," Gasol said. With Andruw Bynum back, Gasol up front and Kobe focused, look for LA to own the boards and roll over the young Eastern upstarts. Play the LA Lakers.

Take: (702) ORLANDO MAGIC

Reason: TV Game of the Month: Magic.
A huge TV showdown game with the new-look Magic against the top team in the NBA. Stan Van Gundy says there was more good than bad in loss to Dallas. Dwight Howard scored 26 points and collected 23 rebounds, both game-highs. The Magic and their new players

Take: (510) NEW YORK KNICKS

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: NY Knicks.
A tough situational spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder, playing their third game in four nights, including the second of a back to back road spot, at Chicago last night. The Bulls are a physical defensive team, and they have to head from that hostile environment to wild Madison Square Garden in New York. It's a bad matchup, too, as the Knicks are rested and love to run at opponents, No. 2 in the NBA in scoring with 107.9 ppg. Teaming Stoudemire with a young playmaker like Ray Felton has been a great match. The Knicks are off back to back losses to the Heat and Cavs, bad situational spots playing back to back games. But they are well rested for this one with 3 full days off. New York is also on a sizzling 14-4 spread run! Look for the Knicks to run right at the road weary and tired visitors in a one-sided game. Play the NY Knicks.

Take: UNDER

Reason: NBA High Roller Total of the Month: 76ers/Bulls Under the total.
The Bulls are an excellent defensive team under new coach Tom Thibodeau. He was the assistant running the defense on the Celtics the last three years, which included two trips to the NBA Finals and consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are on a 15-5 run under the total. For this game, the offense is without Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson played the last game but suffered a concussion the previous game. The Bulls played uncharacteristically small and flat with the Noah-less lineup that featured the 6-foot-9 Gibson at center and two other 6-9 players

Take: (821) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Timberwolves.
Teams home from long road trips aren't always ready to play that first game back home. Athletes are often often focused on catching up with family and friends, their children and other matters at home. For this one Portland returns home from a lousy 4-game trip, losing three in a row. They've also played 8 of the last 11 on the road. This team has underachieved all season, with an offense averaging just 95 ppg -- 6th lowest in the league. In fact, they are getting outscored by a 95-94 average, yet a big favorite here. The Blazeres are fourth worst in the NBA in field goal shooting (.433%). Offense is not a problem for a young Minnesota team, averaging 102.4 ppg while leading the NBA in rebounding behind workhorse Kevin Love. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS the last 6 games as a double digit dog, including the last game, a cover at Phoenix, a 128-122 loss. Play the Timberwolves.

Take: over

Reason: High Roller Total Powerhouse: Bucks/Spurs Over the total.
The Bucks have gotten their offense going after a rough start to the season, riding a 6-3 run over the total. There is plenty of offensive talent, and they showcased that in an impressive 103-99 win at Dallas, one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. That game sailed over by 19 points. Now they face a deadly uptempo offense in San Antonio, the top three-point shooting team and one averaging 106.4 ppg, 4th highest in the league. Both teams are rested and the Spurs have topped 100 points in 13 of the last 17 games. Look for an offensive show, Play the Bucks/Spurs Over the total.

Take: (818) UTAH JAZZ

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Jazz.
Orlando is a long way from home and in a difficult situational spot, playing its second road game in as many nights after a trip to Portland. Now they head to first-place Utah, a tough place to play. Utah loves the uptempo game led by sparkplug guard Deron Williams, who had 12 assists the last game, a home loss to Miami. The team show over 50% against a terrific Heat defense. Utah has a physical young frontcourt with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson and one of the best motivators in the game in Coach Jerry Sloan. Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko (strained right quadriceps) said that his injury feels better and he thinks he should be able to play versus the Magic. And talk about being rested: Utah is playing its 6th straight home game here! Orlando, meanwhile, is playing its 5th road game over the last 6 games. Even in that lone home game they lost to Atlanta straight up as a 7-point favorite, which came on the heals of a loss at Milwaukee, scoring only 85 points. A great situational spot for the home team. Play the Jazz!

Take: (509) INDIANA PACERS

Reason: Game of the Week: Pacers.
Indiana has been a surprise team in the NBA, playing some defense for Coach Jim O'Brien, 11th in points allowed. This team has a huge defensive presence in Roy Hibbert, who teams with hard working Danny Granger to provide a strong punch under the boards: Indiana ranks 4th in the NBA in rebounds. Brandon Rush scored 26 points, Danny Granger had 21 and the Pacers put seven players in double figures in a 124-100 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Monday. And how about the Indiana bench, scoring 50 points! "The good thing is, the guys in the locker room are not happy being 10-9," Indiana coach Jim O'Brien said. The Pacers' improvement is based on a developing young core of players -- Rush, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert. They are on a 7-3 ATS run and take on a stumbling Milwaukee team on a 2-8 SU/ATS run. Four of those games they lost straight up as a favorite. Milwaukee has a struggling offense, 30th in the NBA in points, and will struggle against this strong Indiana defense and depth. Play the Pacers.

Take: (714) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: LA Lakers.
The Lakers returned home from a miserable road trip and pulled themselves together, destroying the Kings 113-80. An even worse team comes to town in Washington. "Whatever we're going through, it's probably good for us," said Lamar Odom before the blowout win. The Lakers shot 56.6% from the field. The Lakers didn't score more than 100 points in any of the losses, and that's not good for a team that is considered one of the NBA's most efficient, one that averages 108.5 points a game, the second-most in the NBA. Washington is 25th in the NBA allowing 105.6 ppg and a ridiculous %48.2% shooting -- second worst in the league. The Wizards (6-12) have opened the season with a franchise record nine road losses and are on a 3-game road trip here. Lately, the Wizards have failed to even be competitive on the road, with their past three defeats to Toronto, Miami and Atlanta all decided by double-digits. Six of their road losses this season have been by 10 or more points, including four by at least 20. The Lakers are ranked 10th in the NBA in field-goal percentage, making 46.2% of their shots. During the losing streak, the Lakers never hit that mark, shooting better than 45% just once. But they are home, rested and focused to start winning again -- and they will big in this one. Play the LA Lakers.

I'm looking at this game as a blowout win for the Jazz on Monday. The Jazz had their seven game winning streak snapped by the Mavericks, 93-81. The SU and ATS loss snapped a seven game cover streak by Utah. But the reason I am looking at this game as a blowout is two fold. First, the Grizzlies are the 21st ranked defensive team in the NBA, allow 103 points per game. And, the Jazz can score points, as they averaged five straight over the century mark before the Dallas loss. Second, the Grizzlies had to play in Denver on Sunday. Denver and Utah are both high altitude cities and to teams visiting from the East it's a tough doubleheader, especially with no rest between. And that's just what we have here tonight. The Grizzlies will be dead tired after playing in the Mile High city last night and then playing in another high altitude city like Salt Lake tonight. The Memphis legs will wither in the second half and the Jazz, which had Sunday off, will pull away for an easy win. I'm taking the Jazz here in what should be a blowout win.

Take: (825) DALLAS MAVERICKS

Reason: Dog of the Month: Mavericks.
Dallas Coach Rick Carlisle has always craved a defensive identity for this team, but he needed the right player to set the tone. A few years ago, 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler would have been an obvious candidate, but chronic foot injuries and excessive fouling made it difficult for him to stay on the court. Right about the time he fell under the radar -- the Bobcats dumped him in a money-saving trade with Dallas last summer -- Chandler has been rejuvenated under Carlisle. Healthy for all 17 games, he's been a superb rim protector and, as a bonus, one of the league's most efficient scorers. Dallas has plenty of offensive weapons, as well, with Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki. For the second consecutive game, the Mavericks (14-4) held an opponent below 40 percent shooting from the floor. For the ninth time this season, they held an opponent to fewer than 10 points below its scoring average; the Wolves came in averaging 101.1. They allow 92.2 ppg (third best) and 43% shooting by opponents (second best). Both teams are red hot for this one, but Dallas (5-0 SU/ATS run) is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Play the Mavericks!

Take: (505) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Thunder.
No Kevin Durant? No Jeff Green? No problem! Oklahoma City was without those two stars when they went to Boston and won as a +9 dog allowing 84 points. Offense is not a problem for this young group, in the Top 10 in scoring with a winning record both home and away. With all the attention on Durant and Green, Oklahoma City Thunder's point guard Russell Westbrook is in just his third NBA season, but has emerged as a top-five point guard and has been their best player. Westbrook averages of 23.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 2.0 steals. He also has boosted his field-goal percentage from 41.8 percent a year ago to 43.9 percent this season. Despite that impressive defensive effort at Boston, this is still an uptempo team and Oklahoma City is 7-1 with Serge Ibaka in the starting lineup. This team is on a 7-2 ATS run, while the Nets are struggling badly, losing 5 of the last 7 games. New Jersey is in a tough situational handicapping spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights while the Thunder is well rested. Play the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Take: (711) INDIANA PACERS

Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: Pacers.
The Indiana Pacers have been a surprise team, playing hard with a winning record. They even have a winning record on the road. The Pacers are on a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS run. This offense is very good, but what's most impressive (and surprising) is the defense, allowing .428% shooting by opponents -- second best in the NBA. The Pacers got their first victory at Staples Center when they beat the Lakers 95-92 in front of a sellout crowd of 18,997 fans. "A great win for us to beat the champions on their court," Pacers coach Jim O'Brien said." Roy Hibbert led the Pacers with 24 points and 12 rebounds and Danny Granger had 18 points. The 7-foot-4 Hibbert is a big reason why they are playing from defense this season. "We're doing it with defense," Pacers swingman Mike Dunleavy said. "The biggest difference between this year and past seasons is that we're stopping people and not relying on our offense to carry us." By contrast, the Kings are playing no defense, as usual, allowing .471% shooting (24th) and allowing 100.4 ppg (17th), while the struggling offense is averaging 94 ppg -- third worst in the NBA. Sacramento is on a 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS run. Play the Pacers!

The Houston Rockets grabbed just their fifth win of the season on Sunday with a one-point home win over Oklahoma City, 99-98. It was the club's second win in the last three games after a drought of five losses in a row. The win was also just the Rockets second cover in the last seven games. But what is of particular value to me is their defense, or lack thereof. The Rockets have allowed over 100 points in four of their last six games. The Rockets started the season by allowing 107 or more in their first five games. Meanwhile, Dallas has been an under team this season, going 6-9 Over/Under on the season. This is mainly because they play such good defense, in fact, the Mavs are the third best defensive team in the NBA. Houston is 26th in the NBA in defense. And, while Dallas has not needed to score much to win, they have upped the tempo of late, scoring over 100 points in each of their last three games with all three going OVER. This series has been high scoring of late, with three of the last four meetings going OVER the number. In those three overs, the lowest combines score was 224. I am sticking with the OVER here on Monday, mainly because of the Houston defense. I see Utah easily getting over 100 points, and with a total of 197 (opening number) we only need about 93 out of Houston.